WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk mitigation measures

  1. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  2. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  3. DEVELOPING SOFT MEASURES FOR FLOOD RISK MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN ROMANIA: PUBLIC INFORMING AND AWARENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LILIANA ZAHARIA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights, firstly, some general aspects concerning flood risk adaptation measures, especially those aiming public informing/education and awareness. Secondly, the paper is focused on Romania and presents: the legislative and action general framework on climate change adaptation and flood risk management; potential measures for flood risk mitigation and adaptation, with special focus on public informing/ communication and education actions; institutions and tools for public informing on flood risk in Romania. Finally, some examples of actions aiming flood risk informing/education and awareness at local scale (Tecuci City in Galaţi County, and the communes of Vulturu and Năneşti in Vrancea County are presented.

  4. The design of risk mitigation measures for several large tailings dams in Ontario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clelland, Lawrence; Noack, Greg; Viles, Keith [Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd, Subbury, (Canada); Donato, Randy; Ross, Trevor [Vale, Sudbury, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Vale Inco recently commissioned a risk assessment study on the main dams in the Sudbury central area. The risk assessment included a desktop review of the historical record, subsurface investigations, flood routing analysis, stability analysis and development of a failure modes and effects analyses table for the dams under review. This paper presented an overview of the design of risk mitigation measures at four of the perimeter dams located near the town of Copper Cliff. The present paper comprised a review of the existing stability of the project dams, which indicated several significant issues, including potential for overtopping in the event of a PMF IDF, previous piping related issues and seismic stability issues. remedial measures were designed to reduce risks associated with the identified issues and generally comprised the construction of a new spillway within the P area and stabilising buttresses for the P area project dams.

  5. Satellite Breakup Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leleux, Darrin P.; Smith, Jason T.

    2006-01-01

    Many satellite breakups occur as a result of an explosion of stored energy on-board spacecraft or rocket-bodies. These breakups generate a cloud of tens or possibly hundreds of thousands of debris fragments which may pose a transient elevated threat to spaceflight crews and vehicles. Satellite breakups pose a unique threat because the majority of the debris fragments are too small to be tracked from the ground. The United States Human Spaceflight Program is currently implementing a risk mitigation strategy that includes modeling breakup events, establishing action thresholds, and prescribing corresponding mitigation actions in response to satellite breakups.

  6. CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

  7. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  8. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  9. Risk mitigation in spaceborne lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Yngve; Reinhold, Elmar; Wernham, Denny; Endemann, Martin; Jost, Michael; Armandillo, Errico; Riede, Wolfgang; Schröder, Helmut; Allenspacher, Paul

    2006-04-01

    Spaceborne lidars carry much promise for Earth observation and interplanetary missions to measure atmospheric parameters (wind velocity, optical extinction or species concentrations) and planet topologies. As the first European lidar mission, the European Space Agency is developing a Doppler wind lidar, ALADIN, to be launched on board ADM-Aeolus in 2008. ALADIN is a pulsed laser, emitting about 120 mJ of pulse energy in the UV. The mission duration is envisaged to be three years, which corresponds to several billion emitted pulses, thus imposing very stringent criteria on the longevity of the system. Laser-induced damage is one of the most significant issues here, in particular since laser-induced damage in space vacuum is still poorly understood. The European Space Agency has therefore established a test campaign to measure the power handling of all the instrument optics with laboratories in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France participating. Measurements are conducted at three wavelengths (1064nm, 532nm and 355nm) and with the introduction of several contaminants. The presentation covers laser-induced damage risk mitigation, the ESA test campaign and some test results.

  10. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  11. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem ...

  12. Risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Albrecht, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...

  13. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  14. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored

  15. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  16. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

  17. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.

    2004-02-01

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods.

  18. Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these

  19. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  20. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

  1. A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a

  2. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective...

  3. Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging

    OpenAIRE

    Jack E. Wahl; Broll, Udo

    2009-01-01

    Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

  4. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  5. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  6. A simplified quasi-2d model of the Po River for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domeneghetti, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.; Colombo, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Flood Directive 2007/60/EC (European Commission, 2007) promotes a paradigm shift from engineering defences to flood-risk mitigation and management strategies. The actual implementation of the Directive necessarily implies the development of reliable procedures for assessing the flood-risk associated with flood prone areas. These procedures can then be adopted by Institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers for identifying optimal policies for a given area. Optimal policies need to be identified at catchment scale through a holistic approach, and this applies also to large European rivers. Our study focuses on the middle-lower reach of the River Po (~350 km), the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We show a large-scale application of a quasi two-dimensional (quasi-2D) model to support the identification of the optimal management strategy of an extreme flood event (recurrence interval ~500 years) by means of controlled flooding (flooding of portions of the flood-prone area located outside the main embankments through ad-hoc lateral structures) for a flood-prone area of ~6,1x103 square kilometres. Different flooding scenarios associated with several possible geometric configurations of the system of lateral structures are compared in terms of flood losses, characterized through the analysis of CORINE land cover data relative to the period 1990-2006. The results of the study show how a simplified quasi-2D model may be effectively used to: (1) provide useful indications on the flood-risk associated with a large flood prone area; (2) support the identification of optimal flood-risk mitigation strategies and (3) assess the impact of recent land-use dynamics (i.e. population-growth, changes agricultural practices, etc.) on flood-risk.

  7. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmelo Di Mauro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication

  8. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  9. Mitigation measures and programs in Hungary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molnar, S. [Systemexpert Consulting Ltd., Budapest (Hungary)

    1996-12-31

    In Hungary there are four main governmental programs, which may result in a decrease of emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs): (1) National program of energy efficiency improvement and energy conservation, (2) Afforestation program, (3) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission reduction program, and (4) Program to reduce the use of ozone depleting substances. These ambitious programs were launched in the beginning of the 90`s, but they have been slowed down because of budgetary problems. The comprehensive action plan for mitigation of GHG emissions should be based on these ongoing programs. These programs should be expanded by further measures and programs in order to fulfill the requirements of the FCCC. In the next sections the results and prospects of the above mentioned programs will be summarized. Also the results of the mitigation study supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program are included.

  10. Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Douglas; Smith, Leigh; Daly, Michele; Johnston, David

    2008-05-01

    This paper discusses how people's interpretation of their experience of volcanic hazards and public volcanic hazard education programs influences their risk perception and whether or not they adopt measures that can mitigate their risk. Drawing on four studies of volcanic risk perception and preparedness, the paper first examines why experiencing volcanic hazards need not necessarily motivate people to prepare for future volcanic crises. This work introduces how effective risk communication requires communities and civic agencies to play complementary roles in the risk management process. Next, the findings of a study evaluating the effectiveness of a public volcanic hazard education program introduce the important role that social interaction amongst community members plays in risk management. Building on the conclusions of these studies, a model that depicts preparing as a social process is developed and tested. The model predicts that it is the quality of the relationships between people, communities and civic agencies that determines whether people adopt measures that can reduce their risk from volcanic hazard consequences. The implications of the model for conceptualizing and delivering volcanic hazard public education programs in ways that accommodate these relationships is discussed.

  11. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  12. Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandimarte, Luigia; Brath, Armando; Castellarin, Attilio; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di

    It is sadly known that over the past decades Isla Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) has been exposed to the devastating passage of several hurricanes and tropical storms. Territories that are economically weak and extremely poor in terms of natural resources have been shaken by severe flood events that caused the loss of thousands of human lives, displacement of people and damage to the environment. On May 24th 2004, the flooding of the trans-boundary river Soliette killed over 1000 Haitian and Dominican people, wiping out villages and leaving behind desolation and poverty. After this catastrophic flood event, the General Direction for Development and Cooperation of the Italian Department of Foreign Affairs funded through the Istituto Italo-Latino Americano (IILA, www.iila.org) an international cooperation initiative (ICI), coordinated and directed by the University of Bologna. The ICI involved Haitian and Dominican institutions and was twofold: (a) institutional capacity building on flood risk management and mitigation measures and policies; (b) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the May 2004 flood event aimed at formulating a suitable and affordable flood risk mitigation plan, consisting of structural and non-structural measures.

  13. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    OpenAIRE

    Balian, John D.; Wherry, Janice C.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strate...

  14. Risk Management in the Extractive Industries: Environmental Analysis and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Sean P.

    2014-01-01

    Risk management has been used regularly in the mining industry over the last few decades. The majority of those instances have focused on health and safety issues. Health and safety has improved in the United States, Australia, and other major mining districts because of the successful use of risk management and mitigation practices. Risk management has been used to a lesser extent to reduce or avoid environmental issues as well. There are a number of factors that make utilization of risk man...

  15. The Impact of Kinship Networks on the Adoption of Risk-Mitigating Strategies in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falco, Di S.; Bulte, E.H.

    2013-01-01

    The adoption of certain farm management practices, such as tree planting and soil and water conservation, can reduce exposure to weather shocks. However, in many countries the adoption of such risk mitigating measures is far from complete. We explore how risk-sharing networks in the form of kinship,

  16. 50 CFR 665.812 - Sea turtle take mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Sea turtle take mitigation measures. 665... Pacific Pelagic Fisheries § 665.812 Sea turtle take mitigation measures. (a) Possession and use of... sea turtle handling requirements set forth in paragraph (b) of this section. (1) Hawaii...

  17. FOLLOW-UP RADON MEASUREMENTS IN 14 MITIGATED SCHOOLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report gives results of a determination of the long-term performance of radon mitigation systems installed in U. S. EPA research schools: radon measurements were conducted in 14 schools that had been mitigated between 1988 and 1991. The measurements were made between Februar...

  18. MITIGATING INNOVATION RISKS CONCERNING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY INSTRUMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available As protection of innovation is possible using a variety of intellectual property instruments, the current paper aims at emphasizing the vulnerabilities of these instruments in order to facilitate the right choice in terms of protection, exploitation and dissemination of innovation. Based on a review of the intellectual property instruments and their related risk factors, the study identifies and formulates specific proactive strategies which arise from the fact that an instrument alone does not allow for effective protection, exploitation and dissemination and oftentimes the owners of innovation should combine traditional and alternative instruments. Therefore, the results of this analysis represent a helpful tool for managers in the decisional process.

  19. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  20. Mitigating Hardware Cyber-Security Risks in Error Correcting Decoders

    OpenAIRE

    Hemati, Saied

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates hardware cyber-security risks associated with channel decoders, which are commonly acquired as a black box in semiconductor industry. It is shown that channel decoders are potentially attractive targets for hardware cyber-security attacks and can be easily embedded with malicious blocks. Several attack scenarios are considered in this work and suitable methods for mitigating the risks are proposed. These methods are based on randomizing the inputs of the channel decode...

  1. Mitigating the risk of radiation-induced cancers: limitations and paradigms in drug development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States radiation medical countermeasures (MCM) programme for radiological and nuclear incidents has been focusing on developing mitigators for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and delayed effects of acute radiation exposure (DEARE), and biodosimetry technologies to provide radiation dose assessments for guiding treatment. Because a nuclear accident or terrorist incident could potentially expose a large number of people to low to moderate doses of ionising radiation, and thus increase their excess lifetime cancer risk, there is an interest in developing mitigators for this purpose. This article discusses the current status, issues, and challenges regarding development of mitigators against radiation-induced cancers. The challenges of developing mitigators for ARS include: the long latency between exposure and cancer manifestation, limitations of animal models, potential side effects of the mitigator itself, potential need for long-term use, the complexity of human trials to demonstrate effectiveness, and statistical power constraints for measuring health risks (and reduction of health risks after mitigation) following relatively low radiation doses (<0.75 Gy). Nevertheless, progress in the understanding of the molecular mechanisms resulting in radiation injury, along with parallel progress in dose assessment technologies, make this an opportune, if not critical, time to invest in research strategies that result in the development of agents to lower the risk of radiation-induced cancers for populations that survive a significant radiation exposure incident. (review)

  2. In an Individually Funded Pension System: How Can Risks Be Mitigated?

    OpenAIRE

    Solange Berstein; Olga Fuentes; Nicolás Torrealba

    2010-01-01

    This article presents the main risks that have to be faced in an individually funded pension system and describes the regulations that enable these to be mitigated in the case of Chile. One of these main risks refers to the investment of the funds and an analysis is made of the support that a life-cycle investment strategy might provide in this respect. On evaluating these strategies, there is discussion as to which is the most suitable risk measurement for consideration..

  3. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Smith, P. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Porse, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  4. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  5. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  6. Dynamic risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Beatrice Acciaio; Irina Penner

    2010-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty functions, and by supermartingale properties of risk processes and penalty functions.

  7. Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

  8. To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring

  9. Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... therefore leave the oil production subject to substantial economical risk. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel set of time-explicit (TE) methods, which combine ideas of multi-objective optimization and ensemble-based risk mitigation into a computationally tractable joint effort...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...

  10. Trying Not to Get Burned: Understanding Homeowners' Wildfire Risk-Mitigation Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A.; Flores, Nicholas

    2012-12-01

    Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

  11. Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.

    2003-04-01

    In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

  12. Credit risk measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Sobotka, Jan

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor thesis deals with problematics of credit risk measurement and modeling. The thesis defines the term and concept of credit risk, accents the specifics of the credit risk and frames it in the context of other financial risks, as well as risk management of current financial institutions. It outlines incentives leading to development of regulation, modeling and measuring of the credit risk, as well as presents current situation of the mentioned field. The thesis presents and describ...

  13. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  14. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency...... perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate...... that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given...

  15. Can Marriage Education Mitigate the Risks Associated with Premarital Cohabitation?

    OpenAIRE

    Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.; Allen, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., “pre-commitment cohabitation”) for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between pre-commitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before ...

  16. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  17. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

  18. "Landslide at sunuapa 401 (hydrocarbon exploration well). Risk reduction by mitigation measures: drainage, piles barrier and anchorages system, shotcrete and reforestation, Chiapas, México".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuanalo, Oscar; Polanco, Gabriel; Rivera, Julio

    2013-04-01

    We report the case of a landslide of hydrocarbon exploration well "Sunuapa 401" located in Chiapas, Mexico. First were identified the determinants and triggers factors (morphology, geology, rain, seismic and volcanic activity, human activity, etc); second we assessed the threat, vulnerability and risk from geotechnical stability analysis (safety factor and critical failure surface); third, by using the methodology of valuation factors, stabilization processes were selected and designed, and finally they were built by Petróleos Mexicanos, in order to avoid a disaster (environmental, ecological and social). These construction processes included drainage elements, flattening and benching of slopes, piles barrier and anchors, shotcrete and reforestation.

  19. Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari

    2015-04-01

    Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.

  20. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  1. The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

  2. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiorucci

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

  3. Essential severe accident mitigation measures for operating and future PWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe Accident mitigation measures are a constituent of the safety concept in Europe not only for operating but also for future light water reactors. While operating reactors mainly have been backfitted with such measure, for future reactors Severe Accident mitigation measures already have to be considered in the design phase. Severe Accident measures are considered as the 4th level of defense for future reactors. This difference has consequences also on the kind of measures proposed to be introduced. While in operating plants Severe Accident mitigation measures are considered for further risk reduction, in future reactors an explicit higher level of safety is required resulting in additional design measures. This higher safety level is expressed in the requirement that there must be no need for evacuation of surrounding populations except in the immediate vicinity of the plant and for long-term restrictions with regard to the consumption of locally grown food. Because of the potential hazard posed by radioactive releases to the environment in the event of an Severe Accident situation depends largely on the airborne material in the containment atmosphere and on the containment integrity, new system features to prevent loss of containment integrity have been introduced in the design of the NPP's. For these tasks it has been necessary to develop and qualify new system technologies and implement them finally into NPP's, e.g. like systems for containment atmosphere H2-control, filtered venting, core retention devices and atmosphere sampling. The following systems are introduced for operating as well as for future plants: · The Hydrogen Control System is based on the Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner (PAR) technology. There is no need for any operator actions because of the self-starting feature of the catalyst if hydrogen is released. · In situ Post Accident Sampling System (In situ-PASS) are introduced for the purpose of obtaining realistic information on airborne

  4. Systemic risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  5. Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy

  6. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  7. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  8. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  9. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  10. Measuring Model Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Breuer; Imre Csiszar

    2013-01-01

    We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst...

  11. Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Mary K.; Allen, Christopher S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Billman, Dorrit; Holden, Kritina L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in

  12. A numerical technique to design blast noise mitigation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, F. van den; Eerden, F.J.M. van der

    2007-01-01

    Large weapons, such as armor, artillery or demolitions, create a high-energy blast wave. It has a low frequency content, typically between 15 and 125 Hz, and can propagate over large distances. As a result it is a relative important cause for annoyance. Mitigation measures need to be close to the so

  13. GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tichy, M. [Energy Efficiency Center, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents a short overview of main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion to the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.

  14. Understanding and mitigating tsunami risk for coastal structures and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sangki

    evacuation methodology was intended to provide key information to better understand and mitigate risk caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, thus it is possible to mitigate hazard for a community with only several large vertical evacuation shelters. It is able to provide a framework for a vertical evacuation plan and for the mitigation of collapse risk and fatalities of structures and a community based on a limited amount of information.

  15. QUALITY BASED CREDIT RISK MITIGATION FOR BANK PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT: EMPIRIC STUDY IN AN INDONESIAN BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nini Avieni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing controversy over whether risk mitigation inherently enhances business performance. The aim of this paper is to settle the controversy, and provide insights roles of risk mitigation on corporate strategy. Author examined implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system at one of Indonesia banks.  Based on responses from 112 credit analysts and database of business units performance indicators, this research showed a relationship between the implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system and unit bank's performance. Quality Based Credit Risk Mitigation which is credit risk mitigation using Lean Six Sigma system will enhance business units’ performance through improvement in credit quality and credit process efficiency.

  16. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  17. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  18. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  19. How much risk is mitigated by LTC Insurance? A case study of the public system in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Guillén, Montserrat; Comas-Herrera, Adelina

    2011-01-01

    We present a methodology that allows to calculate the impact of a given Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance protection system on the risk of incurring extremely large individual lifetime costs. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study. According to our risk measure, the current Spanish public LTC system mitigates individual risk by more than 30% compared to the situation where no public protection were available. We show that our method can be used to compare risk reduction of alt...

  20. Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

    1996-12-31

    Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

  1. Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

  2. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/settlements, which are in future coastline hazard risk, mainly in a future tsunami event. These include their location risk, land uses and housing designs defects and shortcomings of other safety measures. Furthermore few tsunami risk mitigation measures through land use planning strategies, which could be applied more easily in community level, are introduced. In addition to those the strategic development methods of functional networks of evacuation routes and shelters in different topographies are examined.

  3. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas;

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...

  4. Reducing New Orleans Residential Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischbach, J. R.; Groves, D.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, the long-term future of the City of New Orleans remains uncertain. This paper addresses one of New Orleans' most critical challenges: how to make the city more resilient and less vulnerable to future flood damages. Despite recent upgrades to the protection system surrounding the city designed to protect against floods with a 1-in-100 (1%) annual chance of occurrence, New Orleans remains vulnerable to lower-frequency, high-damage events. In addition, uncertain factors that influence flood risk, including coastal land loss and subsidence, rising sea levels, and population recovery and growth, may lead to increasing risk over time. Current proposals for risk reduction in New Orleans and South Louisiana, however, have not fully accounted for these key uncertain drivers. Rather than focus on additional large-scale structural infrastructure investments, this paper considers proposals to augment the existing protection system with ``non-structural" risk mitigation programs. Non-structural risk mitigation includes incentives for elevating existing or new structures, revised building codes, incentives for relocation to lower risk areas, and land use restrictions designed to curtail future growth in the floodplain. This research estimates the risk reduction benefits and implementation costs of non-structural risk mitigation strategies focused on single-family or small multi-family homes in New Orleans. We draw from existing risk models to develop a low-resolution scenario generator, NOLArisk, designed to produce first-order estimates of property risk from 2011-2060 across a range of uncertain future scenarios. We then apply exploratory modeling and Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods to a) suggest strategies that balance risk reduction and implementation costs across many or most plausible futures, and b) identify scenarios in which current alternatives yield negative net economic benefits or excessive levels of

  5. Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holub

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

  6. 'High-health, high-performance' horses: risk mitigation strategies for OIE-listed diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, M; Münstermann, S; Murray, G; Timoney, P

    2015-12-01

    The 'high-health, high-performance' (HHP) horse concept has been developed by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) together with the F6ddration Equestre Internationale and the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities. This concept is outlined in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (Chapter 4.16). It aims to address impediments to the international movement of competition horses through a harmonised, practically feasible, globally applicable framework based on simplified certification requirements for the temporary importation of HHP horses and for their return to their country of usual residence. Based on the principle of compartmentalisation, the high health status of these horses would be established by the application, at all times, of stringent health management practices and biosecurity measures to create and maintain a functional separation between horses within the defined compartment and all other equids. These provisions are intended to mitigate the risk of disease spread for most OIE-listed diseases. For six OIE-listed diseases (African horse sickness, equine influenza, equine infectious anaemia, equine piroplasmosis, glanders and Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis), the OIE recommends disease-specific mitigation measures, which have been included in a model HHP Veterinary Certificate, to provide additional guarantees to mitigate the risk of disease spread. This article presents the HH P disease risk mitigation strategy. It demonstrates how continuous observance of the HHP biosecurity measures and health management practices provides a scientific rationale for limiting the list of diseases for which HHP horses should be screened with respect to their temporary importation for competition purposes. PMID:27044155

  7. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  8. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    OpenAIRE

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe; Akihiko Hokugo; Yuko Ikenouchi

    2011-01-01

    Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/set...

  9. Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

    2009-04-01

    Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although

  10. Measuring Longevity Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyer, Martin M.; Mejza, Joanna; Stentoft, Lars

    2014-01-01

    , any shortcoming of funds in the future is often the employer's responsibility. It is therefore essential for the employer to be able to predict with a high degree of confidence the total amount that will be required to cover its future pension obligations. Applying mortality forecasting models.......8 percent of the total liability ascribable to retired pensioners (as measured by the relative value at risk at the 95th percentile) and 2.5 percent of the total liabilities ascribable to current regular contributors. Longevity risk compounds the model risk associated with not knowing what is the true...... mortality model, and we estimate that model risk represents approximately 3.2 percent of total liabilities. The compounded longevity risk therefore represents almost 6 percent of the pension plan's total liabilities...

  11. Cost-Benefit Ratios for Risk Mitigation on Structures in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    David De León

    2007-01-01

    Risk aspects of planning and design of engineering works in Mexico are usually considered into the mitigation and development plans only in a subjective and qualitative form. This practice does not produce the minimum costs in the long term. In order to optimally allocate limited funds used for mitigation purposes, a careful, systematic and objective estimation of the failure consequences as well as the underlying risk is required. Also, mitigation policies for several regions in Mexico and d...

  12. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  13. Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

    2016-04-01

    "Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

  14. Decision-Support System for Mitigating Long-Term Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, H. R.; van Delden, H.; Newman, J. P.; Riddell, G. A.; Zecchin, A. C.; Dandy, G. C.; Newland, C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Long-term flood risk in urban areas is expected to increase as a result of a number of factors, such as an increase in the severity of flood events due to the impact of climate change and the exposure of a larger number of people to flooding as a result of population growth. In order to facilitate the development of long-term flood mitigation plans, a framework for a decision-support system (DSS) is presented in this paper. The framework consists of an integrated model (see Figure) consisting of dynamic, spatially distributed land-use and flood inundation models. It also enables the impact of various flood mitigation strategies to be assessed, such as spatial planning, land management, structural measures (e.g. levees, changes in building codes), and community education. The framework considers a number of external drivers that are represented in the form of long-term planning scenarios. These include the impact of climate drivers on the extent of flooding via the flood inundation model and the impact of population and economic drivers on the size and distribution of the population via the land use allocation model. Using this framework, a DSS is being developed and applied to the Greater Adelaide region of South Australia. This DSS includes an intuitive, user-friendly interface for enabling different planning scenarios and mitigation portfolios to be selected, as well as temporal changes in flood risk maps under each of these scenarios to be observed. Changes in flood risk maps are investigated over a 30-year period with climate drivers represented by different representative concentration pathways, population drivers represented by different population projections and economic drivers represented by different employment rates. The impact of different combinations of mitigation measures is also investigated. The results indicate that climate, population and economic drivers have a significant impact on the temporal evolution of flood risk for the case study area

  15. Operational measures for the mitigation of MIC [microbiologically influenced corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although entitled Operational Measure, this section of the workshop encompasses aspects of mitigating MIC by controlling the hydraulic characteristics of a system. In order for operational considerations outside of the chemical treatment program to be effective, the system must be designed, constructed or modified, and maintained with MIC in mind. Since other papers in these proceedings discuss in detail the proper selection of materials, chemical treatments and detection of monitoring techniques, this paper is limited to quidelines for mitigating MIC and its effects by the mechanical design, maintenance and operation of the system. The key concept behind this philosophy is the synergistic relationships among microbes and among microbes and larger biofouling organisms. If the slime formers or other marine organisms can be prevented from attaching to the components, conducive environments for attack by other species is avoided

  16. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered.

  17. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered. PMID:25938709

  18. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  19. Quantifying the effect of early warning systems for mitigating risks from alpine hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as flexible and non-intrusive measures for mitigating risks from alpine hazards. They are typically planed and installed in an ad-hoc manner and their effectiveness is not quantified, which is in contrast to structural risk mitigation measures. The effect of an EWS on the risk depends on human decision makers: experts interpret the signals from EWS, authorities decide on intervention measures and the public responds to the warnings. This interaction of the EWS with humans makes the quantification of their effectiveness challenging. Nevertheless, such a quantification is an important step in understanding, improving and justifying the use of EWS. We systematically discuss and demonstrate the factors that influence EWS effectiveness for alpine hazards, and present approaches and tools for analysing them. These include Bayesian network models, which are a powerful tool for an integral probabilistic assessment. The theory is illustrated through applications of warning systems for debris flow and rockfall hazards. References: Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (in print). Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (2015). Reliability and Effectiveness of Warning Systems for Natural Hazards: Concepts and Application to Debris Flow Warning. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 142: 192-202

  20. Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Asgary

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses’ preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today’s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.

  1. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  2. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  3. Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.

    1996-12-31

    In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.

  4. Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality

    CERN Document Server

    Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

    2007-01-01

    Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

  5. Evaluation of land use based greenhouse gas mitigation measures in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Röder, Norbert; Henseler, Martin; Liebersbach, Horst; Kreins, Peter; Osterburg, Bernhard

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production contributes 11% to the total German greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We evaluate the efficiency of three different land use based GHG mitigation measures: production of feedstocks for biomethane production, short rotation coppices and peatland restoration. We evaluate these measures with respect to cost efficiency (GHG mitigation costs), mitigation potential and impact on agricultural production. We use the regional supply model RAUMIS to investigate the different mitig...

  6. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-ping Long

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

  7. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  8. The role of the Model Validation function to manage and mitigate model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto Elices

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.

  9. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  10. Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: insights from landscape-scale simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradstock, R A; Cary, G J; Davies, I; Lindenmayer, D B; Price, O F; Williams, R J

    2012-08-30

    Wildfires pose significant risks to people and human infrastructure worldwide. The treatment of fuel in landscapes may alter these risks but the magnitude of this effect on risk is poorly understood. Evidence from Australian Eucalyptus forests suggests that mitigation of risk using prescribed burning as a fuel treatment is partial because weather and fuel dynamics are conducive to regular high intensity fires. We further examine the response of risk to treatment in eucalypt forests using landscape simulation modelling. We model how five key measures of wildfire activity that govern risk to people and property may respond to variations in rate and spatial pattern of prescribed fire. We then model effects of predicted climate change (2050 scenarios) to determine how the response of risk to treatment is likely to be altered in the future. The results indicate that a halving of risk to people and property in these forests is likely to require treatment rates of 7-10% of the area of the landscape per annum. Projections of 2050 weather conditions under climate change further substantially diminished the effect of rate of treatment. A large increase in rates of treatment (i.e. circa. 50% over current levels) would be required to counteract these effects of climate change. Such levels of prescribed burning are unlikely to be financially feasible across eucalypt dominated vegetation in south eastern Australia. Despite policy imperatives to expand fuel treatment, a reduction rather than an elimination of risk will result. Multi-faceted strategies will therefore be required for the management of risk. PMID:22531752

  11. Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Torben G. Andersen; Tim Bollerslev; Peter F. Christoffersen; Francis X. Diebold

    2012-01-01

    Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we propose flexible methods that exploit recent developments in financial econometrics and are likely to produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time r...

  12. 49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What additional preventive and mitigative measures... STANDARDS Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management § 192.935 What additional preventive and mitigative... those already required by Part 192 to prevent a pipeline failure and to mitigate the consequences of...

  13. Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alix, A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

  14. Measuring model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Sibbertsen, Philipp; Stahl, Gerhard; Luedtke, Corinna

    2008-01-01

    Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution’s risk. Because the underlying data generating process is unknown in practice evaluating the model risk is a challenge. So far, definitions of model risk are either applicat...

  15. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M.W. Reddy

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be used to improve water risk assessments at a basin scale and we apply the methodology to the industrialized Brazos River Basin (85% municipal and industrial withdrawals and consider implications for The Dow Chemical Company׳s Freeport Operations in Texas, US. Brazos water right holders pay only operating and maintenance costs for water during normal periods; however, when shortages occur, leasing stored water or reducing production may be the only mitigation option in the short-run. Modeling of water shortages and the theoretical cost of leasing water under nine combined scenarios of demand growth and climate change suggests that water lease prices to industry could increase by 9–13X. At best, a more developed water rights and storage lease market could result in lower lease prices (2–3X; however, given that transactions would be limited it is more likely that prices would still increase by 4–13X. These results suggest that markets are unlikely to be a robust solution for the Brazos because, in contrast to other watersheds in the Western US, there is little reliable water to trade from low value users (agricultural to high value users (industry and municipalities. Looking at demand trends across the contiguous US as an indicator of water risk, 2% of watersheds have municipal and industrial demands that outstrip total surface and ground water supplies and in these watersheds industry has historically paid higher lease prices for water. This study

  16. Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

  17. Best practices for mitigating soiling risk on PV power plants

    KAUST Repository

    AlDowsari, A.

    2015-09-24

    Solar power generates proven, predictable and economical energy and new innovations have made solar PV power plants easy to deploy, integrate and maintain. Areas with large solar energy potential are among the dustiest in the world. At first glance, solar would be a natural fit in many of these environments but humidity, airborne dust, and wind of these regions often bring high soiling rates that can accumulate to reduce performance by up to 10% per month on average, where soiling can be a major loss factor that affects the energy yield for PV plants especially in humid and dusty climates. Therefore, to achieve the desired performance ratio and obtain stable generation, mitigation solutions are proposed to overcome dust issues that affect the performance of PV plants. This makes PV module cleaning a key component for long-term plant performance and sustainable profitability. In this paper, a review of the mechanisms and mitigation solutions to overcome soiling on solar installations using real-world testing and verification is investigated with emphasis on dry type cleaning methods. © 2014 IEEE.

  18. Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation Techniques in Microfinance Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Elena Fuior; Veronica Mîrzac

    2008-01-01

    Many borrowing microfinance institutions (MFIs) are not adequately managing their exposure to foreign exchange rate risk. The microfinance industry has increased its awareness and understanding of foreign exchange risk, however, there has not been any significant actions taken at the industry level. The best solution for an MFI is to avoid foreign exchange risk altogether and fund itself in local currency. There a number of strategies to accomplish this: Borrow from your local bank; Negotiate...

  19. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

    OpenAIRE

    Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-01-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed com...

  20. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  1. Angular Impact Mitigation System for Bicycle Helmets to Reduce Head Acceleration and Risk of Traumatic Brain Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kirk; Dau, Nathan; Feist, Florian; Deck, Caroline; Willinger, Rémy; Madey, Steven M.; Bottlang, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Angular acceleration of the head is a known cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI), but contemporary bicycle helmets lack dedicated mechanisms to mitigate angular acceleration. A novel Angular Impact Mitigation (AIM) system for bicycle helmets has been developed that employs an elastically suspended aluminum honeycomb liner to absorb linear acceleration in normal impacts as well as angular acceleration in oblique impacts. This study tested bicycle helmets with and without AIM technology to comparatively assess impact mitigation. Normal impact tests were performed to measure linear head acceleration. Oblique impact tests were performed to measure angular head acceleration and neck loading. Furthermore, acceleration histories of oblique impacts were analyzed in a computational head model to predict the resulting risk of TBI in the form of concussion and diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Compared to standard helmets, AIM helmets resulted in a 14% reduction in peak linear acceleration (p < 0.001), a 34% reduction in peak angular acceleration (p < 0.001), and a 22% to 32% reduction in neck loading (p < 0.001). Computational results predicted that AIM helmets reduced the risk of concussion and DAI by 27% and 44%, respectively. In conclusion, these results demonstrated that AIM technology could effectively improve impact mitigation compared to a contemporary expanded polystyrene-based bicycle helmet, and may enhance prevention of bicycle-related TBI. Further research is required. PMID:23770518

  2. Involving end users to mitigate risk in IS development projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amrit, C.; Hillegersberg, van J.; Diest, van B.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the authors aim to gain insight into the relationship between user participation modes and project risk factors, and then they constructed a model that can be used to determine how user participation can be successfully applied in ISD projects with a given set of risk factors. The auth

  3. Measuring Credit Spread Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A.J. Campbell-Pownall (Rachel); R. Huisman (Ronald)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractIt is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced b

  4. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  5. Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Heugens, Pursey; Dentchev, Nikolay

    2007-01-01

    textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR ado...

  6. A Regional Multi-Risk Assessment Approach to Support the Definition Public Mitigation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    C. Di Mauro; Bouchon, S; Frattini, P; S. Lari; Buldrini, M; Oliveri, S.; Seminati, P.

    2012-01-01

    In order to define mitigation strategies, the regional public administrations in charge of prevention policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. They need to identify scientifically sound solutions, based on a compromise between the conflicting objectives of the relevant stakeholders. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. Th...

  7. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

  8. Hydraulic analysis of measures for flood mitigation in floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentova, J.; Valenta, P.; Weyskrabova, L.; Dostal, T.

    2012-04-01

    The question of possible flood control and flood mitigation measures and their effects is still challenging. While the effect of purely technical flood control measures such as dams or levees is sufficiently described by using any of widely spread or more specific models, the effectiveness of close-to-nature ones (river restoration, appropriate land use, landscape structure regeneration, etc.) is not adequately verified and quantified. On that account, the benefits and feasibility of integration of the natural potential of floodplains to absorb and transform flood wave is being discussed. In addition, there are many side benefits of close-to-nature measures which are hard to evaluate and include into decision making processes. This contribution presents a part of the study related to river and floodplain restoration and revitalization measures in catchments and their flood-control effect. In the study the possibilities of using one-dimensional (HEC-RAS) and two-dimensional hydraulic mathematical models (FAST2D, DIFEM2D) of steady and unsteady flow for estimation of transformation effects of a floodplain were compared. The comparison of used models was made with respect to computed results and also to the availability of input data, mathematical stability, processes and accuracy demands and time requirements. The above mentioned methods of hydraulic modelling were applied to three case study localities in the Czech Republic. The parts of river channels and their floodplain differ in terms of morphology, river channel form and training situation and land-use. Case study areas were selected to represent the main types of floodplains within the Czech Republic for their further classification related to flood wave transformation potential. The transformation effect is compared not only for the natural state of the floodplain, but also for various theoretical scenarios in each locality. Keywords Hydraulic modelling, flood control, floodplain, storage capacity, river

  9. 30 CFR 250.223 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What mitigation measures information must... INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) § 250.223 What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?...

  10. 30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What mitigation measures information must... Information Contents of Development and Production Plans (dpp) and Development Operations Coordination Documents (docd) § 250.254 What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? (a) If...

  11. Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.

    2012-12-01

    As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

  12. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  13. Spatial and temporal spread of flood mitigation measures implemented by private households along the Rhine and their effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P.; Kreibich, H.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2012-04-01

    Floods in Europe caused substantial economic damage in recent decades. In the future, flood risk is projected to increase in many places due to the effects of climate change and on-going socio-economic development in flood-prone areas. To reduce the economic impact of current and future floods, damage mitigation measures implemented by private households are increasingly considered as an important component of integrated flood risk management approaches. However, knowledge about the temporal and spatial spread of flood mitigation measures such as water barriers or adapted building use are often lacking. Moreover, estimates of the effectiveness of these measures are still scarce. To gain further insights into these aspects, we will present empirical data from a computer-aided telephone survey among 752 private households along the German part of the River Rhine. It will be discussed to what extent various types of flood mitigation measures have been implemented by private households in flood-prone areas over time. Currently, we find that several measures, e.g. flood-adapted building use are regularly employed by the population at risk (34 per cent). We will examine to what extent the deployment of these measures effectively contributes to damage reduction.

  14. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. PMID:26552993

  15. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

  16. Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies Before the Conduct of a Clinical Trial: An Industry Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagat, Seema; Kapatkar, Vaibhavi K; Mourya, Meenakshi; Roy, Sucheta; Jha, Shailendra; Reddy, Rajasekhar; Kadhe, Ganesh; Mane, Amey; Sawant, Sandesh

    2016-01-01

    Conduct of clinical trials has undergone substantial changes over the last two decades. Newer markets, evolving guidelines and documentation and high cost involved in conducting the trials have led pharmaceutical companies to prepare a risk mitigation plan. Extensive monitoring of potential risks is an essential element of clinical trials which helps to ensure quality and integrity of a clinical investigation. Every clinical trial has pre (before the trial), conduct and post phase. This article which has been developed as a result of extensive research at ground level by a reputed pharmaceutical company to identify the potential stages of risks that could affect the overall quality and safety of a trial and its outcome during the pre-phase of trial (the stage of the trial where the study design is being planned before initiation of the clinical trial). It includes risks associated with basic study concept, protocol design, Confidential Disclosure Agreement (CDA) and Clinical Trial Authorization (CTA) application signing, vendors of central drug laboratory, site and investigator selection, Clinical Research Coordinator (CRC) meet, Informed Consent Form (ICF), Case Report Form (CRF)/ Status Report Form (SRF) preparation, Ethics Committee (EC) submission, etc. have been highlighted. The risk based mitigation strategy (to develop an effective risk monitoring plan before staring a clinical trial) has also been suggested by authors. A well-tailored and integrated plan, recognition of potential risks and their mitigation strategy can result in the pre exclusion or end to end solution of all the risks associated with pre- phase of clinical trials. PMID:26435140

  17. Evaluating woody material transport and deposition in alpine rivers and deducing risk mitigation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B.; Zischg, A.; Hübl, J.; Largiader, A.

    2009-04-01

    The impact levels of recent flashflood events in Switzerland and Western Austria in 2005 have significantly been accentuated by a considerable amount of transported woody material. As a consequence, either protection measures or bridges suffered considerable damage. Furthermore, cross-sectional obstructions due to woody material entrapment caused unexpected floodplain inundations resulting in severe damage to elements at risk. Until now, these woody material transport phenomena are neither sufficiently taken into account nor systematically considered, leading to a decrease in prediction accuracy during the procedure of hazard mapping. To close this gap, a procedure is proposed that (1) allows for the estimation of woody material recruitment from wood covered bankslopes and floodplains within the perimeter of the considered extreme flood event; and (2) permits the analysis of, the disposition for woody material entrainment and transport to selected critical configurations along the channel. The proposed procedure had been implemented into an ArcGIS-environment and provided indications for potential accentuation of flood hazards due to the transport of woody material. Results from a case study suggested the general applicability of the concept. The computational results can be used to devise effective risk mitigation strategies that comprise: (1) selective woody material volume reduction within the source areas, (2) thinning measures to increase the elasticity of the forest structure, (3) preventive interception of transported woody material and (4) redesign of the critical configurations.

  18. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

  19. To Risk or Not to Risk: Anxiety and the Calibration between Risk Perception and Danger Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

  20. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone;

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that incre......Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows...... that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance....

  1. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  2. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

  3. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the

  4. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

  5. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted. PMID:20443161

  6. Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues relative to an unamended control soil was assessed using Lumbricus terrestris in 4-L soil microcos...

  7. Space Shuttle Systems Engineering Processes for Liftoff Debris Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the systems engineering process designed to reduce the risk from debris during Space Shuttle Launching. This process begins the day of launch from the tanking to the vehicle tower clearance. Other debris risks (i.e., Ascent, and micrometeoroid orbital debit) are mentioned) but are not the subject of this presentation. The Liftoff debris systems engineering process and an example of how it works are reviewed (i.e.,STS-119 revealed a bolt liberation trend on the Fixed Service Structure (FSS) 275 level elevator room). The process includes preparation of a Certification of Flight Readiness (CoFR) that includes (1) Lift-off debris from previous mission dispositioned, (2) Flight acceptance rationale has been provided for Lift-off debris sources/causes (3) Lift-off debris mission support documentation, processes and tools are in place for the up-coming mission. The process includes a liftoff debris data collection that occurs after each launch. This includes a post launch walkdown, that records each liftoff debris, and the entry of the debris into a database, it also includes a review of the imagery from the launch, and a review of the instrumentation data. There is also a review of the debris transport analysis process, that includes temporal and spatial framework and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. which incorporates a debris transport analyses (DTA), debris materials and impact tests, and impact analyses.

  8. Evaluating alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk and generating environmental service benefits in water supply catchments

    OpenAIRE

    Kandulu, John; Bryan, Brett

    2009-01-01

    Evaluations of pathogen management options have focussed on assessing relative removal effectiveness as a basis for prioritising alternative management investment decisions. Using a case study of the Myponga catchment, South Australia, this paper presents results of a cost-effectiveness risk analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based water quality management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk. A range of costs and benefits including set-up and operating costs, farm business c...

  9. Risk mitigation: Planning and emergency; La gestione del rischio: Dall`emergenza al piano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menoni, Scira [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze del Territorio

    1997-10-01

    In the last years many scholars have recognized what an important tool for risk mitigation land use planning is. Looking at risk from a planner`s perspective requires to adopt a systemic approach, according to which it`s impossible to isolate risky objects from their geographical and social environment. Furthermore a systemic approach fosters planners take into account the chains of potential failures that might affect both punctual and linear sources of damage, that is not only one risk at a time, but multiple risks which jeopardize the correct working of plants, networks, and of entire metropolitan and regional areas.

  10. Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centofantia, Tiziana; McConnell, Laura L.; Chaney, Rufus L.; Beyer, W. Nelson; Andradea, Natasha A.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Torrents, Alba; Nguyen, Anh; Anderson, Marya O.; Novak, J. M.; Jackson, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues to Lumbricus terrestris L. relative to the unamended control soil was assessed using 4-L soil microcosms with and without plant cover in a 48-day experiment. The use of aged dairy manure compost and biosolids compost was found to be effective, especially in the planted treatments, at lowering the bioavailability factor (BAF) by 18–39%; however, BAF results for DDT in the unplanted soil treatments were unaffected or increased. The pine chip biochar utilized in this experiment was ineffective at lower the BAF of pesticides in the soil. The US EPA Soil Screening Level approach was used with our measured values. Addition of 10% of the aged dairy manure compost reduced the average hazard quotient values to below 1.0 for DDT + DDE and dieldrin. Results indicate this sustainable approach is appropriate to minimize risks to wildlife in areas of marginal organochlorine pesticide contamination. Application of this remediation approach has potential for use internationally in areas where historical pesticide contamination of soils remains a threat to wildlife populations.

  11. Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs

  12. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  13. Mitigation of the hydrogen risk in fusion reactors; Mitigation du risque hydrogene dans les reacteurs de fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruejouls, C.; Robin, J.C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. d' Etudes des Reacteurs; Arnould, F.; Bachellerie, E. [Technicatome DI SEPS, 13 - Aix en Provence (France); Latge, C. [CEA Cadarache, Dept. d' Etudes des Dechets DED, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Laurent, A. [Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine, Lab. des Sciences du Genie Chimique, 54 - Nancy (France)

    2001-07-01

    The rupture of the first wall and the intrusion of water vapor inside the torus, is one of the major accident that can occur in a thermonuclear fusion reactor. In this situation, water oxidizes the beryllium of the wall and the reaction produces hydrogen with a strong risk of explosion inside the reactor. In order to mitigate this risk, a process based on the reduction of metal oxides (MnO{sub 2}, Ag{sub 2}O) has been developed. The aim of this study is the determination of the kinetics of this reduction reaction. A mixture of both oxides has been deposited on the surface of porous balls for an experiment on fixed beds. The modeling of the phenomenon is based on the equations used in heterogenous catalysis and the experimental determination of the kinetics of the reaction is performed with the CIGNE test-facility. The velocity of the reduction reaction is deduced from the remaining amount of hydrogen in the test-gas (N{sub 2} with 1 to 2% of H{sub 2}) after it has been flowed on the oxides coated balls of the fixed bed. (J.S.)

  14. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  15. Spectral Risk Measures and the Choice of Risk Aversion Function

    OpenAIRE

    kevin dowd; john cotter

    2011-01-01

    Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuitive properties, but...

  16. Nanopesticides and nanofertilizers: emerging contaminants or opportunities for risk mitigation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie eKah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called nanopesticides and nanofertilizers. In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices.This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  17. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called “nanopesticides” and “nanofertilizers.” In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals. PMID:26636068

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-01-01

    Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

  19. Identifying and mitigating risks for agricultural injury associated with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Nathan; Janssen, Ian; Hagel, Louise; Dosman, James; Lawson, Joshua; Trask, Catherine; Pickett, William

    2016-12-01

    In some occupational contexts overweight and obesity have been identified as risk factors for injury. The purpose of this study was to examine this hypothesis within farm work environments and then to identify specific opportunities for environmental modification as a preventive strategy. Data on farm-related injuries, height and weight used to calculate body mass index (BMI), and demographic characteristics were from the Phase 2 baseline survey of the Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort; a large cross-sectional mail-based survey conducted in Saskatchewan, Canada from January through May 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between BMI and injury. Injury narratives were explored qualitatively. Findings were inconsistent and differed according to gender. Among women (n = 927), having overweight (adjusted OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.29 to 6.70) but not obesity (1.10; 95% CI: 0.35 to 3.43) was associated with an increased odds of incurring a farm-related injury. No strong or statistically significant effects were observed for men (n = 1406) with overweight or obesity. While injury-related challenges associated with obesity have been addressed in other occupational settings via modification of the worksite, such strategies are challenging to implement in farm settings because of the diversity of work tasks and associated hazards. We conclude that the acute effects of overweight in terms of injury do require consideration in agricultural populations, but these should also be viewed with a differentiation based on gender. PMID:27413685

  20. Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Kinnebrock, Silja; Shephard, Neil

    We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability...

  1. Radiological terrorism: Countermeasures and measures for mitigation of consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioactive sources can be used in devices aimed at radiological terrorism. The paper briefly discusses the types and quantities of sources that may be suitable for such a purpose. A summary of equipment containing significant radioactive sources manufactured in the former Soviet Union is presented. The paper also describes the structure, functions and future directions of activities of organizations in the Russian Federation responsible for nuclear safety and security, including the control and accounting of radioactive materials and the system to prevent, respond to and mitigate the consequences of nuclear emergency situations. (author)

  2. Analysis of the 2002 flood in Austria - facts, conclusions and mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formayer, H.; Habersack, H.; Holzmann, H.; Moser, A.; Seibert, P.

    2003-04-01

    In August 2002 Austria was affected - like other European countries e.g. Germany, Czech Republic or Romania - by an extreme flood event, which occurred in Central Europe and brought rainfall of extraordinary extent and flood recurrence intervals from several years to more than 1000 years. Losses of human life and livestock and damages of infrastructure, buildings, public and private properties rose the public awareness and the demand for improvement of future flood mitigation measures. The Centre of Natural Hazards and Risk Management of the BOKU-University for Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna startet as a first initiative with a summary and review of all reports and documents upon the regional impact of the event. The summary includes the description of the meteorological boundary conditions, the flood generation and their frequencies. A broad range of disciplinary aspects like river engineering, river ecology, vegetation and biology, soil science and soil mechanics, rural and urban planning were involved. The inventory and interpretation of the damages forms a base for assessment of shortcomings and requirements for a successful flood protection strategy for the future. The holistic approach will result in improved regional water management plans and assists in the development of a sustainable, catchment based flood mitigation strategy. Besides the review of the event the presentation will comment on some lacks and shortcomings in the collected data base and will give hints for future demands in online monitoring requirements, on establishment and improvement of forecasting tools and of the information transfer to the emergency services.

  3. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on Flood Damage Prevention in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hee Son

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of flood damages and the effects of structural and non-structural flood damage mitigation measures in Korea. First, a theoretical discussion of the structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages was used to select the variables and devise the hypotheses. An analysis was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA time series methodology, Korean socioeconomic data, and damage characteristics of major flood events. The effects of flood damage mitigation measures on the extent of flood damages were assessed using an intervention time series model. The major findings were that the intervention effects of structural and non-structural measures were statistically significant from 1958 to 2013 (a period of 55 years and that while the former were ineffective at mitigating flood damages, the latter were successful in doing so. Based on the above findings, policy suggestions for future flood damage mitigation measures in Korea were offered. For structural measures, the government should manage its existing facilities, recover ecosystems of damaged rivers, and devise mitigation measures for urban areas. For non-structural measures, the government should enhance its flood forecasting capacity, revise laws related to flood control and prevention, and update and rationalize land-use plans.

  4. Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Nagar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

  5. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on Flood Damage Prevention in Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Cheol-Hee Son; Jong-In Baek; Yong-Un Ban; Sung-Ryong Ha

    2015-01-01

    This study analyzed the characteristics of flood damages and the effects of structural and non-structural flood damage mitigation measures in Korea. First, a theoretical discussion of the structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages was used to select the variables and devise the hypotheses. An analysis was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) time series methodology, Korean socioeconomic data, and damage characteristics of major flood even...

  6. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  7. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

  8. Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions.

  9. Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions. PMID:26880285

  10. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices...... for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like...... the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves...

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI. CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI in Carnegie MellonUniversity in USA. CMMI is a framework for improvement and assessment of computer informationsystems. The method we used to define the measures is to apply the Goal Questions Metrics (GQMparadigm to the specific goals and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area in CMMI.

  12. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  13. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trowsdale, R. [EPCOR Power Development Corp. (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance.

  14. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  15. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  16. Risk-mitigation strategies for large earth flows in Northern Apennines (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolini, Giovanni

    2010-05-01

    This presentation proposes an overview on ancient earth flows of the Northern Apennines and their reactivation mechanisms, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to implement risk-reduction strategies for land-use planning and mitigation measures. These large landslide bodies are the result of multi-phase events occurred during the last 13.000 years, but, in spite of the ancient origin, they are still dangerous, due to the repetitiveness of the reactivation events. Damages deriving from the recurrent reactivation of these ancient landslides exceeds the 90% of the total. The hazard assessment of these landslides, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. The usual set of factors that form the basis of deterministic methods is insufficient to make reliable predictions about the future behaviour of these landslides and their related hazard. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation is fundamental to effective land-use planning. The observation of real, recent events (e.g. Boschi di Valoria, Corniglio and Cà Lita) has proved to be an useful mean for understanding which are the conditions and behaviours that usually lead to the reactivation of an ancient earth flow. More in general, the analysis of the evolution of earth flows during actual reactivation acknowledges a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. In order to perform an effective risk-reduction strategy, a site-specific, interdisciplinary and partially heuristic approach should be implemented, pooling together many elements of evaluation. Most importantly, using detailed field observation and all other available means, the hazard estimate must consider possible indicators of present and recent movement, or situations that could lead to future reactivation, with special

  17. Recent Advances in Measurement and Dietary Mitigation of Enteric Methane Emissions in Ruminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Amlan K

    2016-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emission, which is mainly produced during normal fermentation of feeds by the rumen microorganisms, represents a major contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several enteric CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored recently. A number of new techniques have also been developed and existing techniques have been improved in order to evaluate CH4 mitigation technologies and prepare an inventory of GHG emissions precisely. The aim of this review is to discuss different CH4 measuring and mitigation technologies, which have been recently developed. Respiration chamber technique is still considered as a gold standard technique due to its greater precision and reproducibility in CH4 measurements. With the adoption of recent recommendations for improving the technique, the SF6 method can be used with a high level of precision similar to the chamber technique. Short-term measurement techniques of CH4 measurements generally invite considerable within- and between-animal variations. Among the short-term measuring techniques, Greenfeed and methane hood systems are likely more suitable for evaluation of CH4 mitigation studies, if measurements could be obtained at different times of the day relative to the diurnal cycle of the CH4 production. Carbon dioxide and CH4 ratio, sniffer, and other short-term breath analysis techniques are more suitable for on farm screening of large number of animals to generate the data of low CH4-producing animals for genetic selection purposes. Different indirect measuring techniques are also investigated in recent years. Several new dietary CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored, but only a few of them are practical and cost-effective. Future research should be directed toward both the medium- and long-term mitigation strategies, which could be utilized on farms to accomplish substantial reductions of CH4 emissions and to profitably reduce carbon footprint of livestock production systems. This review presents

  18. Recent advances in measurement and dietary mitigation of enteric methane emissions in ruminants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 emission, which is mainly produced during normal fermentation of feeds by the rumen microorganisms, represents a major contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Several enteric CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored recently. A number of new techniques have also been developed and existing techniques have been improved in order to evaluate CH4 mitigation technologies and prepare an inventory of GHG emissions precisely. The aim of this review is to discuss different CH4 measuring and mitigation technologies, which have been recently developed. Respiration chamber technique is still considered as a gold standard technique due to its greater precision and reproducibility in CH4 measurements. With the adoption of recent recommendations for improving the technique, the SF6 method can be used with a high level of precision similar to the chamber technique. Short-term measurement techniques of CH4 measurements generally invite considerable within- and between animal variations. Among the short-term measuring techniques, Greenfeed and methane hood systems are likely more suitable for evaluation of CH4 mitigation studies, if measurements could be obtained at different times of the day relative to the diurnal cycle of the CH4 production. Carbon dioxide and CH4 ratio, sniffer and other short-term breath analysis techniques are more suitable for on farm screening of large number of animals to generate the data of low CH4 producing animals for genetic selection purposes. Different indirect measuring techniques are also investigated in recent years. Several new dietary CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored, but only a few of them are practical and cost-effective. Future research should be directed towards both the medium- and long-term mitigation strategies, which could be utilized on farms to accomplish substantial reductions of CH4 emissions and to profitably reduce carbon footprint of livestock production systems. This

  19. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-02-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one. Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro) and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo) are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme) resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress), using the EPP dollar exchange rate. Our conclusions with

  20. Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

  1. Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2012-11-01

    Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insights into the long-term development, current implementation level and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures, empirical data from 752 flood-prone households along the German part of the Rhine are presented. It is found that four types of flood mitigation measures developed gradually over time among flood-prone households, with severe floods being important triggers for an accelerated implementation. At present, still a large share of respondents has not implemented a single flood mitigation measure, despite the high exposure of the surveyed households to floods. The records of household's flood damage to contents and structure during two consecutive flood events with similar hazard characteristics in 1993 and 1995 show that an improved preparedness of the population led to substantially reduced damage during the latter event. Regarding the efficiency of contemporary integrated flood risk management, it is concluded that additional policies are required in order to further increase the level of preparedness of the flood-prone population. This especially concerns households in areas that are less frequently affected by flood events.

  2. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

    2013-06-15

    The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with

  3. Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamade, Raina; Gabriel, Adeena; Prentky, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM(3)), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence. PMID:21565406

  4. Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies

    OpenAIRE

    Lankoande, Mariam D.; Yoder, Jonathan K.; Wandschneider, Philip R.

    2006-01-01

    Contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management cost-sharing programs are becoming more prevalent in western states. This paper develops a model to examine the incentive effects of these two mechanisms for private investment in wildfire risk mitigation. The model shows that contingent insurance contracts strengthen incentives for risk mitigation relative to pooled contracts and subsidies induce more risk mitigation effort by reducing margin private costs of mitigation. With pooled insurance...

  5. Coastal City Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures Based on Land Use Pattern%基于土地利用格局的沿海城市自然灾害风险评价及减灾措施

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    游珍; 蒋庆丰; 娄彩荣

    2013-01-01

    In order to begin to prevent and mitigate natural disaster from the city planning stage,based on land use pattern,a natural disaster risk assesment model was built,which is constituted by disaster loss index,emergency system capacity and reconstruction difficulty index.According to coastal disaster characters and affected body's pattern,considering social and economic factors,sub functions about the three indexes were structured.Then,applying the model,the disaster risks in old urban region,main urban region and new urban region in Nantong city were calculated.The results show the disaster risk in old urban region,with imperfect emergency system and underdeveloped economy,is affected mainly by the secondary dangerous sources.The main urban region,with perfect emergency system and developed economy,holds a lower risk in the center,but on the edge of built-up district there is a high disaster risk.The new urban region,with imperfect emergency system and rapid development,holds a high disaster risk.Some natural mitigation measures were proposed in Nantong city.%为从城市规划阶段开始对自然灾害进行有针对性的防灾减灾,首先构建基于土地利用格局的自然灾害风险评价模型,建立基于灾害损失系数、应急体系能力和灾后重建难度系数的函数.然后,根据沿海地区灾害特点和受灾体格局,充分考虑社会和经济因素,分别建立灾害损失系数,应急体系能力和灾后重建难度系数的子函数.以江苏南通市为例,分别计算老城区,新城区和开发区的自然灾害风险.结果显示,应急体系不健全且经济落后的老城区建设用地受次生危险源格局影响较大;应急体系健全且经济发达的主城区中心区域灾害风险较小,但城市建成区边缘风险较大;发展迅速但应急体系不健全的新城区自然灾害风险也较大.根据各区的规划特点,提出针对南通市不同区域发展特点的减灾措施.

  6. Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

    OpenAIRE

    Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

  7. Measurement-based auralization methodology for the assessment of noise mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Pieter; Wei, Weigang; Van Renterghem, Timothy; Botteldooren, Dick

    2016-09-01

    The effect of noise mitigation measures is generally expressed by noise levels only, neglecting the listener's perception. In this study, an auralization methodology is proposed that enables an auditive preview of noise abatement measures for road traffic noise, based on the direction dependent attenuation of a priori recordings made with a dedicated 32-channel spherical microphone array. This measurement-based auralization has the advantage that all non-road traffic sounds that create the listening context are present. The potential of this auralization methodology is evaluated through the assessment of the effect of an L-shaped mound. The angular insertion loss of the mound is estimated by using the ISO 9613-2 propagation model, the Pierce barrier diffraction model and the Harmonoise point-to-point model. The realism of the auralization technique is evaluated by listening tests, indicating that listeners had great difficulty in differentiating between a posteriori recordings and auralized samples, which shows the validity of the followed approaches.

  8. Comonotonic measures of multivariate risks

    OpenAIRE

    Ivar Ekeland; Alfred Galichon; Marc Henry

    2012-01-01

    We propose amultivariate extension of awell-known characterization by S.Kusuoka of regular and coherent risk measures as maximal correlation functionals. This involves an extension of the notion of comonotonicity to random vectors through generalized quantile functions.Moreover, we propose to replace the current law invariance, subadditivity, and comonotonicity axioms by an equivalent property we call strong coherence and that we argue has more natural economic interpretation. Finally, we ref...

  9. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control.

  10. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. PMID:27101456

  11. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped. PMID:25321932

  12. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  13. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  14. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    OpenAIRE

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW)

    2012-01-01

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i) improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii) alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of releva...

  15. Different risk measures: different portfolio compositions?

    OpenAIRE

    Byrne, Peter; Lee, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally, the measure of risk used in portfolio optimisation models is the variance. However, alternative measures of risk have many theoretical and practical advantages and it is peculiar therefore that they are not used more frequently. This may be because of the difficulty in deciding which measure of risk is best and any attempt to compare different risk measures may be a futile exercise until a common risk measure can be identified. To overcome this, another approach is considere...

  16. Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)

    2003-05-01

    The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.

  17. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  18. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    OpenAIRE

    Reddy, Sheila M. W.; McDonald, Robert I.; Alexander S. Maas; Anthony Rogers; Evan H. Girvetz; Jennifer Molnar; Tim Finley; Gená Leathers; Johnathan L. DiMuro

    2015-01-01

    Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be u...

  19. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  20. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Adverse Reactions Associated with the Disease-Modifying Drugs in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subei, Adnan M; Ontaneda, Daniel

    2015-09-01

    Over the past several years, the number of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has doubled in number. The 13 approved agents have shown a wide range of efficacy and safety in their clinical trials and post-marketing experience. While the availability of the newer agents allows for a wider selection of therapy for clinicians and patients, there is a need for careful understanding of the benefits and risks of each agent. Several factors such as the medication efficacy, side-effect profile, patient's preference, and co-morbidities need to be considered. An individualized treatment approach is thus imperative. In this review, risk stratification and mitigation strategies of the various disease-modifying agents are discussed. PMID:26407624

  1. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  2. CO2 Mitigation Measures of Power Sector and Its Integrated Optimization in China

    OpenAIRE

    Pan Dai; Guang Chen; Hao Zhou; Meirong Su; Haixia Bao

    2012-01-01

    Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO2 emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO2 emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO2 mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planni...

  3. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

  4. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ► We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3−, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ► Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ► Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ► Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  5. Measuring nutritional risk in hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik H Rasmussen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Henrik H Rasmussen1,2, Mette Holst3, Jens Kondrup41Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 4Department of Human Nutrition, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Clinical Nutrition Unit, Rigshospitalet University Hospital, Copenhagen, DenmarkAbstract: About 20%–50% of patients in hospitals are undernourished. The number varies depending on the screening tool amended and clinical setting. A large number of these patients are undernourished when admitted to the hospital, and in most of these patients, undernutrition develops further during hospital stay. The nutrition course of the patient starts by nutritional screening and is linked to the prescription of a nutrition plan and monitoring. The purpose of nutritional screening is to predict the probability of a better or worse outcome due to nutritional factors and whether nutritional treatment is likely to influence this. Most screening tools address four basic questions: recent weight loss, recent food intake, current body mass index, and disease severity. Some screening tools, moreover, include other measurements for predicting the risk of malnutrition. The usefulness of screening methods recommended is based on the aspects of predictive validity, content validity, reliability, and practicability. Various tools are recommended depending on the setting, ie, in the community, in the hospital, and among elderly in institutions. The Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS 2002 seems to be the best validated screening tool, in terms of predictive validity ie, the clinical outcome improves when patients identified to be at risk are treated. For adult patients in hospital, thus, the NRS 2002 is recommended.Keywords: nutritional risk screening

  6. Value at Risk: Implementing a Risk Measurement Standard

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Marshall; Michael Siegel

    1996-01-01

    In the wake of recent failures of risk management, there has been a widespread call for improved quantification of the financial risks facing firms. At the forefront of this clamor has been Value at Risk. Previous research has identified differences in models, or Model Risk, as an important impediment to developing a Value at Risk standard. By contrast, this paper considers the divergence in a model's implementation in software and how it too, affects the establishment of a risk measurement s...

  7. 舟曲三眼峪"8.8"特大泥石流灾害特征与风险减缓对策%The Disaster Characteristics and Risk Mitigation Measures of "8.8" Debris Flow at Sanyanyu Gully,Zhouqu

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张茂省; 黎志恒; 孙萍萍; 赵成; 胡向德; 曾庆铭

    2011-01-01

    The debris flow happened on 8th august 2010 in Zhouqu county is a disaster which caused the biggest damage in Chinese recorded history. It is extremely meaningful to faithfully record the features, forming reasons and triggering factors of this debris flow, analysis the development and propose the risk mitigation measures for the reconstructions guidance and further study of this disaster. This paper takes the debris flow at Sanyanyu gulley as an example. The debris flow features were described according to the zoning and deposition characteristics, unit weight, velocity and discharge of the debris flow. The forming reasons were analyzed based on the topography, solid material properties, and the extremely rainfall conditions. The construction blockage of the debris flow outlet, disadvantageous human activities, and environmental degradation because of deforestation were recognized as the main reasons for this huge disaster. The potential debris flow at Sanyanyu gulley is developing. It is probable for the debris flow to occur again, and the frequency and scope will increase. A comprehensive risk mitigation measure incorporating local let-by, engineering treatment, monitoring, warning and public education was put forwarded.%舟曲"8.8"特大泥石流是我国有历史记载以来造成损失最大的一次泥石流灾害,如实地记录这次灾害的特点、形成条件及致灾因素,分析其发展趋势并提出风险减缓措施,对指导灾后重建和今后的研究都是十分必要的.以舟曲"8.8"泥石流中的三眼峪为对象,从泥石流分区特征、堆积特征以及其特征值等方面描述了泥石流灾害特征;从地形地貌、固体物质和极端降雨三方面分析了泥石流的成因.认为城镇建设挤占泥石流排泄通道、不合理的人类工程活动、毁林垦荒破坏生态环境是导致本次灾害损失惨重的原因;三眼峪沟泥石流仍处于发展之中,再次发生泥石流的

  8. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed.

  9. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed. PMID:24814659

  10. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  11. Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    STEWART Mark G

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure,and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis,the procedure can be used to optimise blastmitigation strategies.The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which,when subjected to blast loading,has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants.Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios.The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling,glazing response and glazing failure criteria.Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building.The paper shows an illustrative exampie of how this information,when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria,can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

  12. Impact of road mitigation measures on amphibian populations: A stage-class population mathematical model

    OpenAIRE

    Jolivet, Renaud; Antoniazza, Michel; Strehler-Perrin, Catherine; Gander, Antoine

    2008-01-01

    It is now well established that amphibians are suffering widespread decline and extinctions. Among other causes, urbanization is responsible for habitat reduction, habitat fragmentation and massive road kills. In this context, it is urgent to develop and assess appropriate conservation measures. Using yearly censuses of migrating adults of two anuran species at one location in Switzerland, we examined the impact of a road mitigation measure - permanent under-road tunnels with guiding trenches...

  13. Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets

    OpenAIRE

    Calvey, J. R.; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M. A.; Rubin, D.

    2014-01-01

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with t...

  14. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj

  15. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

  16. Nutrient pollution mitigation measures across Europe are resilient under future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Andrew; Skeffington, Richard; Couture, Raoul; Erlandsson, Martin; Groot, Simon; Halliday, Sarah; Harezlak, Valesca; Hejzlar, Joseph; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Lepistö, Ahti; Papastergiadou, Eva; Psaltopoulos, Demetrios; Riera, Joan; Rankinen, Katri; Skuras, Dimitris; Trolle, Dennis; Whitehead, Paul; Dunn, Sarah; Bucak, Tuba

    2016-04-01

    The key results from the application of catchment-scale biophysical models to assess the likely effectiveness of nutrient pollution mitigation measures set in the context of projected land management and climate change are presented. The assessment is based on the synthesis of modelled outputs of daily river flow, river and lake nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and lake chlorophyll-a, for baseline (1981-2010) and scenario (2031-2060) periods for nine study sites across Europe. Together the nine sites represent a sample of key climate and land management types. The robustness and uncertainty in the daily, seasonal and long-term modelled outputs was assessed prior to the scenario runs. Credible scenarios of land-management changes were provided by social scientists and economists familiar with each study site, whilst likely mitigation measures were derived from local stakeholder consultations and cost-effectiveness assessments. Modelled mitigation options were able to reduce nutrient concentrations, and there was no evidence here that they were less effective under future climate. With less certainty, mitigation options could affect the ecological status of waters at these sites in a positive manner, leading to improvement in Water Framework Directive status at some sites. However, modelled outcomes for sites in southern Europe highlighted that increased evaporation and decreased precipitation will cause much lower flows leading to adverse impacts of river and lake ecology. Uncertainties in the climate models, as represented by three GCM-RCM combinations, did not affect this overall picture much.

  17. Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

    2012-03-15

    The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second

  18. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  19. Post-mitigation impact risk assessment for NASA's DART kinetic impactor mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; DART, AIM

    2016-10-01

    Field-testing kinetic impactors to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) is essential to better understand the challenges of future asteroid impact threat mitigation. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment mission (AIDA, Cheng et al. 2016), a collaborative effort between NASA and ESA, offers a timely opportunity to validate kinetic impact deflection strategies. Although the main goal of NASA's kinetic impactor (DART) is to change the circumprimary orbit of (65803) Didymos' moonlet, the imparted momentum will also slightly change the heliocentric orbit of the whole binary asteroid system. Given the high degree of non-linearity of the near-Earth dynamical environment, however, even a small change in initial conditions can affect long term predictions of the encounter distances between Didymos and the Earth. Belonging to the dynamical class of PHAs, (65803) Didymos has several encounters with the Earth over the upcoming decades, some of which are closer than 20 lunar distances. In order to confirm that no planetary safety issues arise as a consequence of DART, we conducted a post-mitigation impact risk assessment (PMIRA, Eggl et al. 2015) for the currently foreseen DART impact trajectories. In this contribution we present the latest PMIRA results and discuss the role of ESA's AIM spacecraft in reducing uncertainties arising in the deflection process.

  20. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  1. Alternatives to Crop Insurance for Mitigating Hydrologic Risk in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Gorski, G.; Wood, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Corn and soybean production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin can be limited by either excess or shortage of water, often in the same year within the same watershed. Most producers indemnify themselves against these hazards through the Federal crop insurance program, which is heavily subsidized, thus discouraging expenditures on other forms of risk mitigation. The cost is not trivial, amounting to more than 60 billion USD over the past 15 years. Examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records at the 8-digit scale suggests that inter-annual hydrologic variability in the region is increasing, particularly in an area stretching from NW IL through much of IA and southern MN. Analysis of crop insurance statistics shows that these same watersheds exhibit the highest frequency of coincident claims for yield losses to both excess water and drought within the same year. An emphasis on development of water management strategies to increase landscape storage and subsequent reuse through supplemental irrigation in this region could reduce the cost of the crop insurance program and stabilize yield. However, we also note that analysis of yield data from USDA-NASS shows that interannual yield variability at the watershed scale is much more muted than the indemnity data suggest, indicating that adverse selection is probably a factor in the crop insurance marketplace. Consequently, we propose that hydrologic mitigation practices may be most cost-effective if they are carefully targeted, using topographic, soil, and meteorological data, in combination with more site-specificity in crop insurance data.

  2. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  3. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-09-01

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations. PMID:26322488

  4. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier.

  5. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  6. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  7. The economic value of One Health in relation to the mitigation of zoonotic disease risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häsler, Barbara; Gilbert, William; Jones, Bryony Anne; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo; Rushton, Jonathan; Otte, Martin Joachim

    2013-01-01

    The essence of One Health is an interdisciplinary approach combined with some degree of intersectoral integration that is aimed at mitigation of human and animal health risks, taking account of environmental, ecological, social and economic factors. While a large number of international stakeholders now consider the One Health approach necessary for more effective protection of the global community against health threats, there is still no systematic allocation of resources to integrated national or multinational programmes, partly due to the inertia of existing sectoral systems and the lack of convincing economic arguments in support of the approach. We propose different degrees of sectoral integration depending on system types and associated economic efficiency gains to be expected from a One Health approach. International and regional organisations have an important role in facilitating the adoption of the approach, since the costs and the benefits are often of a regional or even a global nature, such as in the case of avian influenza. PMID:24264885

  8. Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

  9. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.; Granby, Kit

    2014-01-01

    the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA...... content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine....... For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content...

  10. Mapping the spatio-temporal risk of lead exposure in apex species for more effective mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P; Jiménez-Moreno, María; Camarero, Pablo R; Sánchez-Barbudo, Inés S; Rodríguez Martín-Doimeadios, Rosa C; Mateo, Rafael

    2016-07-27

    Effective mitigation of the risks posed by environmental contaminants for ecosystem integrity and human health requires knowing their sources and spatio-temporal distribution. We analysed the exposure to lead (Pb) in griffon vulture Gyps fulvus-an apex species valuable as biomonitoring sentinel. We determined vultures' lead exposure and its main sources by combining isotope signatures and modelling analyses of 691 bird blood samples collected over 5 years. We made yearlong spatially explicit predictions of the species risk of lead exposure. Our results highlight elevated lead exposure of griffon vultures (i.e. 44.9% of the studied population, approximately 15% of the European, showed lead blood levels more than 200 ng ml(-1)) partly owing to environmental lead (e.g. geological sources). These exposures to environmental lead of geological sources increased in those vultures exposed to point sources (e.g. lead-based ammunition). These spatial models and pollutant risk maps are powerful tools that identify areas of wildlife exposure to potentially harmful sources of lead that could affect ecosystem and human health. PMID:27466455

  11. Pets' Impact on Your Patients' Health: Leveraging Benefits and Mitigating Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Kate; Barton, Luisa; Darling, Marcia; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence A; Monavvari, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Over two thirds of Americans live with pets and consider them important members of the family. Pets benefit human health (zooeyia) in 4 ways: as builders of social capital, as agents of harm reduction, as motivators for healthy behavior change, and as potential participants in treatment plans. Conversely, pets can present risks to their owners. They are potential sources of zoonotic disease and injury. Pets can also challenge a family's prioritization of financial and social resources. To activate the benefits of zooeyia and appropriately calibrate and mitigate zoonotic risk, physicians first need to know about the pets in their patients' families. Asking about pets is a simple and feasible approach to assess patients' environmental history and social capital. Asking about pets is a nonthreatening way to build rapport and demonstrates an interest in the whole family, which can improve the physician-patient therapeutic alliance. Physicians can use an interprofessional, collaborative approach with veterinarians to address zoonotic health risks and leverage zooeyia. PMID:26152446

  12. Measuring operational risk in financial institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Plunus, Séverine; Hübner, Georges; Peters, Jean-Philippe

    2012-01-01

    The scarcity of internal loss databases tends to hinder the use of the advanced approaches for operational risk measurement (Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA)) in financial institutions. As there is a greater variety in credit risk modelling, this article explores the applicability of a modified version of CreditRisk+ to operational loss data. Our adapted model, OpRisk+, works out very satisfying Values-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% level as compared with estimates drawn from sophisticated AMA mod...

  13. Study on severe accident mitigation measures for the development of PWR SAMG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In the development of the Severe Accident Management Guidelines (SAMG), it is very important to choose the main severe accident sequences and verify their mitigation measures. In this article, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR), Station Blackout (SBO), and Anticipated Transients without Scram (ATWS) in PWR with 300 MWe are selected as the main severe accident sequences. The core damage progressions induced by the above-mentioned sequences are analyzed using SCDAP/RELAP5. To arrest the core damage progression and mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, the measures for the severe accident management (SAM) such as feed and bleed, and depressurizations are verified using the calculation. The results suggest that implementing feed and bleed and depressurization could be an effective way to arrest the severe accident sequences in PWR.

  14. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the

  15. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-05-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

  16. Methane mitigation in cities: how new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, F. M.; Bush, S. E.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Lai, C. T.; Rambo, J. P.; Wiggins, E. B.; Miu, J. C. L.; Carranza, V.; Randerson, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Cities generate a large fraction of anthropogenic methane emissions that are increasing with urbanization and greater reliance on natural gas as fuel. New measurements of methane in cities suggest an as-yet unrealized potential for city-scale methane mitigation. We present high-resolution methane observations from four cities in North America to demonstrate the utility of methane surveys for identifying urban methane sources. We used portable, continuous on-road measurements to determine the spatial distribution of methane in Fairbanks, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, and San Diego. Across cities, methane tended to be highly concentrated in space, suggesting discrete, point emission sources. Elevated methane levels were found near known emission sources, such as landfills, wastewater treatment facilities, and natural gas-fueled power plants, and revealed the location of fugitive leaks in natural gas infrastructure. The mix of sources and sizes of methane leaks varied among cities, highlighting a need for locally adaptive emissions regulation. Urban methane observations can inform anthropogenic processes in development of methane mitigation strategies. We discuss specific examples of how continuous atmospheric measurements can enhance the design of mitigation strategies in these cities, and potential contributions of these approaches to cross-sectoral efforts to reduce methane emissions at the city level.

  17. Decision principles derived from risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R. Kaas; R.J.A. Laeven

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the s

  18. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  19. Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

    2009-01-01

    Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

  20. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

  1. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  2. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebad Ghanbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment of vulnerable built in environment into areas susceptible seismic hazard. Seismic -hazard assessment an estimate of ground motion at the site of interest, taking into account instrumental and historical earthquake records, information on tectonics, geology, and attenuation characteristics of seismic waves Tabriz is important industrial city of Iran. It has a very high population density about 2.000000 people in area just 90 km2 . The main objective of the Tabriz seismic instrumentation and microzonation study was to carry out and propose new building in Tabriz and suburbs in order to apply these criteria its development programs and determine the potential for damage to existing constructions during earthquake motions, and finally earthquake risk mitigation assessment.

  3. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiv Shankar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  4. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  5. Ground Data System Risk Mitigation Techniques for Faster, Better, Cheaper Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catena, John J.; Saylor, Rick; Casasanta, Ralph; Weikel, Craig; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    With the advent of faster, cheaper, and better missions, NASA Projects acknowledged that a higher level of risk was inherent and accepted with this approach. It was incumbent however upon each component of the Project whether spacecraft, payload, launch vehicle, or ground data system to ensure that the mission would nevertheless be an unqualified success. The Small Explorer (SMEX) program's ground data system (GDS) team developed risk mitigation techniques to achieve these goals starting in 1989. These techniques have evolved through the SMEX series of missions and are practiced today under the Triana program. These techniques are: (1) Mission Team Organization--empowerment of a closeknit ground data system team comprising system engineering, software engineering, testing, and flight operations personnel; (2) Common Spacecraft Test and Operational Control System--utilization of the pre-launch spacecraft integration system as the post-launch ground data system on-orbit command and control system; (3) Utilization of operations personnel in pre-launch testing--making the flight operations team an integrated member of the spacecraft testing activities at the beginning of the spacecraft fabrication phase; (4) Consolidated Test Team--combined system, mission readiness and operations testing to optimize test opportunities with the ground system and spacecraft; and (5). Reuse of Spacecraft, Systems and People--reuse of people, software and on-orbit spacecraft throughout the SMEX mission series. The SMEX ground system development approach for faster, cheaper, better missions has been very successful. This paper will discuss these risk management techniques in the areas of ground data system design, implementation, test, and operational readiness.

  6. Laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy does not completely mitigate increased perioperative risks in elderly patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, May C; Croome, Kristopher P; Shubert, Christopher R; Farnell, Michael B; Truty, Mark J; Que, Florencia G; Reid-Lombardo, KMarie; Smoot, Rory L; Nagorney, David M; Kendrick, Michael L

    2015-01-01

    Background Elderly patients undergoing open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD) are at increased risk for surgical morbidity and mortality. Whether totally laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (TLPD) mitigates these risks has not been evaluated. Methods A retrospective review of outcomes in patients submitted to pancreatoduodenectomy during 2007–2014 was conducted (n = 860). Outcomes in elderly patients (aged ≥70 years) were compared with those in non-elderly patients with respect to risk-adjusted postoperative morbidity and mortality. Differences in outcomes between patients submitted to OPD and TLPD, respectively, were evaluated in the elderly subgroup. Results In elderly patients, the incidences of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 3.21, P < 0.001), respiratory events (OR 1.68, P = 0.04), delayed gastric emptying (DGE) (OR 1.73, P = 0.003), increased length of stay (LoS, 1 additional day) (P < 0.001), discharge disposition other than home (OR 8.14, P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 1.48, P = 0.05) were greater than in non-elderly patients. Morbidity and mortality did not differ between the OPD and TLPD subgroups of elderly patients. In elderly patients, OPD was associated with increased DGE (OR 1.80, P = 0.03), LoS (1 additional day; P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 2.89, P < 0.001) compared with TLPD. Conclusions Elderly patients undergoing TLPD experience rates of mortality, morbidity and cardiorespiratory events similar to those in patients submitted to OPD. In elderly patients, TLPD offers benefits by decreasing DGE, LoS and blood transfusion requirements. PMID:26294338

  7. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in Punjab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2015-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the extension projects in Punjab region of India.

  8. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical model

  9. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    OpenAIRE

    Debapriya Mondal; Bhaswati Ganguli; Sugata Sen Roy; Babli Halder; Nilanjana Banerjee; Mayukh Banerjee; Maitreya Samanta; Giri, Ashok K.; POLYA, David A.

    2014-01-01

    There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for a...

  10. The influence of governmental mitigation measures on contamination characteristics of PM(2.5) in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuan; Schleicher, Nina; Chen, Yizhen; Chai, Fahe; Norra, Stefan

    2014-08-15

    Beijing, the capital of China, has become one of the most air-polluted cities due to its rapid economic growth. Weekly PM2.5 samples-collected continuously from 2007 to 2010-were used to study the contamination characteristics of atmospheric particles and effects of governmental mitigation measures especially since the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. PM2.5 mass concentrations during the sampling period were reduced compared to the previous studies before 2005, although they were still too high in comparison with environmental standards of China and many other countries as well as WHO standards. Results of principle component analysis show that elements of primary anthropogenic origin had an obvious decline while elements mainly from the natural environment kept a relatively stable course. The governmental macro-control measures influenced both anthropogenic and geogenic sources, but they also led to some pollution peaks prior to implementation of the respective measures. Some element concentrations correlated to the restrictiveness of relative measures, especially during different traffic restrictions. The comparison with other countries and international standards shows that there is a long way to go in order to improve air quality in Beijing, and that governmental mitigation measures need to be continued and reinforced. PMID:24887192

  11. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    corrosion damage to the Type 316 superheater sections in the affected units an extensive programme of test work and plant modelling has been undertaken over a number of years. This has involved stress corrosion test work using full scale plant boiler simulations under a variety of feedwater chemistry conditions for both helical and serpentine boilers. Data from these investigations has then been used to construct models of the damage process that allow the risk of tube leaks due to stress corrosion cracking to be assessed. These models use plant feedwater chemistry and thermal-hydraulic data as inputs. The paper describes investigations of the risk of stress corrosion cracking in AGR boilers and the improvements in feedwater quality of the affected units to help mitigate the risk. (authors)

  12. Are changes in weather masking the efficacy of measures aimed at mitigating diffuse pollution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellander, Per-Erik; Jordan, Phil; Shore, Mairead; McDonald, Noeleen; Shortle, Ger

    2016-04-01

    Interpretations of the efficacy of mitigation measures for reducing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural sources to water bodies are challenged by the temporal variability of air temperature and rainfall. Influences are different depending on flow controls, associated time lags and nutrient transformations that may occur along the pathways. In Europe weather patterns and trends are influenced by large-scale weather systems over the North Atlantic. One of the most prominent teleconnection patterns that affect the weather across all seasons is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In northwestern Europe a positive phase in the NAO index over the winter period is often associated with elevated air temperatures in summer and more frequent large rain events in winter than normal. The objective of this study was to investigate the catchment-scale influences and relationships of naturally altered hydro-meteorological processes on the diffuse N and P losses to waters, in order to distinguish natural climate effects from those caused by adaptive management (increased agricultural intensity, decreased nutrient use etc.). Here we present six years of monthly nitrate-N and total reactive P concentrations in stream water (aggregated from sub-hourly monitoring) in six, ca. 10 km2, Irish agricultural catchments with different hydrological flow controls and land use. The locations of the catchments make them susceptible to sudden and/or seasonal shifts in weather. Changes in long term air temperatures and rainfall were investigated and annual N and P concentrations were compared to the NAO. During the monitored period (2009-2015) there was a steady increase in wintertime NAO index, reaching positive values in recent years, resulting in higher air temperatures and more frequent large rain events in winter. In some settings annual N and/or P concentrations were positively correlated to the three-year moving average NAO index (R2 > 0.90). Catchments with free

  13. The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Zuccaro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

  14. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  15. Multiparameter monitoring of Fogo Island, Cape Verde, for volcanic risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Joao F. B. D.; Faria, Bruno V. E.; Lima, Nuno P.; Heleno, Sandra I. N.; Lazaro, Clara; d'Oreye, Nicolas F.; Ferreira, Ana M. G.; Barros, Inocencio J. M.; Santos, Paula; Bandomo, Zuleyka; Day, Simon J.; Osorio, Jose P.; Baio, Miguel; Matos, Joao L. G.

    2003-07-01

    Fogo Island in the Cape Verde Archipelago (North Atlantic) is a stratovolcano of nearly conical shape that rises 2829 m above sea level and ˜6000 m above the surrounding seafloor. With a population of 40 000, the island has known intense historical volcanic activity since AD 1500, with an average interval between eruptions of the order of 20 years. Twentieth-century rates were more subdued, with only two flank eruptions in 1951 and 1995. Following the 1995 eruption, increased awareness of the volcanic hazard affecting the population of the island led to the deployment of the permanent VIGIL Network. Seismographic stations (both broadband and short-period), tiltmeters and a CO 2 sensor where installed in Fogo, together with a telemetry infrastructure to allow remote real-time monitoring. A broadband seismographic station was installed in neighbour Brava Island. The operation of the network was complemented by the introduction of routine geodetic and microgravity surveying and the operation of an automatic meteorological station. In this paper, we describe the methodology adopted to monitor the volcanic activity, combining real-time data analysis (volcanotectonic and volcanic earthquakes, volcanic tremor and tilt) with repeated surveying at intervals of several months (GPS, microgravity). Examples of data from the first years of operation are presented. In particular, the data pertaining to a period of anomalous activity in September-October 2000 are discussed, in the context of the risk mitigation strategy currently being developed.

  16. Techniques to Assess and Mitigate the Environmental Risk Posed by use of Airguns: Recent Advances from Academic Research Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, P. J.; Tyack, P. L.; Johnson, M. P.; Madsen, P. T.; King, R.

    2006-05-01

    There is considerable uncertainty about the ways in which marine mammals might react to noise, the biological significance of reactions, and the effectiveness of planning and real-time mitigation techniques. A planning tool commonly used to assess environmental risk of acoustic activities uses simulations to predict acoustic exposures received by animals, and translates exposure to response using a dose-response function to yield an estimate of the undesired impact on a population. Recent advances show promise to convert this planning tool into a real-time mitigation tool, using Bayesian statistical methods. In this approach, being developed for use by the British Navy, the environmental risk simulation is updated continuously during field operations. The distribution of exposure, set initially based on animal density, is updated in real-time using animal sensing data or environmental data known to correlate with the absence or presence of marine mammals. This conditional probability of animal presence should therefore be more accurate than prior probabilities used during planning, which enables a more accurate and quantitative assessment of both the impact of activities and reduction of impact via mitigation decisions. Two key areas of uncertainty in addition to animal presence/absence are 1.) how biologically-relevant behaviours are affected by exposure to noise, and 2.) whether animals avoid loud noise sources, which is the basis of ramp-up as a mitigation tool. With support from MMS and industry partners, we assessed foraging behaviour and avoidance movements of 8 tagged sperm whales in the Gulf of Mexico during experimental exposure to airguns. The whale that was approached most closely prolonged a surface resting bout hours longer than typical, but resumed foraging immediately after the airguns ceased, suggesting avoidance of deep diving necessary for foraging near active airguns. Behavioral indices of foraging rate (echolocation buzzes produced during prey

  17. Lessons Learnt and Mitigation Measures for the CERN LHC Equipment with RF fingers

    CERN Document Server

    Métral, E; Assmann, R W; Baglin, V; Barnes, M J; Berrig, O E; Bertarelli, A; Bregliozzi, G; Calatroni, S; Carra, F; Caspers, F; Day, H A; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Gallilee, M A; Garion, C; Garlasche, M; Grudiev, A; Jimenez, J M; Jones, R; Kononenko, O; Losito, R; Nougaret, J L; Parma, V; Redaelli, S; Salvant, B; Strubin, P; Veness, R; Vollinger, C; Weterings, W

    2013-01-01

    Beam-induced RF heating has been observed in several LHC components when the bunch/beam intensity was increased and/or the bunch length reduced. In particular eight bellows, out of the ten double-bellow modules present in the machine in 2011, were found with the spring, which should keep the RF fingers in good electrical contact with the central insert, broken. Following these observations, the designs of all the components of the LHC equipped with RF fingers have been reviewed. The lessons learnt and mitigation measures are presented in this paper.

  18. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  19. On the Dual Representation of Coherent Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Ang, Marcus; Sun, Jie; Yao, Qiang

    2015-01-01

    A classical result in risk measure theory states that every coherent risk measure has a dual representation as the supremum of certain expected value over a risk envelope. We study this topic in more detail. The related issues include: 1. Set operations of risk envelopes and how they change the risk measures, 2. The structure of risk envelopes of popular risk measures, 3. Aversity of risk measures and its impact to risk envelopes, and 4. A connection between risk measures in stochastic optimi...

  20. Feasibility studies on severe accident mitigation measures against containment over-pressurization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The integrity of the containment as the last barrier against radioactive material releases to the environment can be threatened during severe accident. Containment over-pressurization occurs when decay heat and chemical reaction from the degraded core cannot be removed effectively. Then, steam and non-condensable gases are produced by boiling and molten core concrete interaction. If operator actions are not implemented properly, it leads to a containment failure. The applicable means to depressurize the containment includes external cooling of the containment, internal decay heat removal, and containment venting. So, the feasibility study on containment backup spray system and containment filtered venting system are examined on PWR with large dry containment. Thermo-hydraulic analysis results show that both options can effectively de-pressurize the containment against representative containment over-pressurization scenarios. Containment backup spray system can prevent radiological release and maintain containment integrity as an active way. But optimal operating strategy is needed to prevent flooding inside the containment and hydrogen flammability. Filtered venting can mitigate radiological release below 10-3 of initial inventory as a passive way. But the molten core concrete interaction cannot be mitigated. Overall, each option has its own pros. and cons. So, the final design option should be chosen considering the overall safety effect based on thermo-hydraulic analysis, risk reduction factor, incorporation into design concept (diversity .vs redundancy), reliability of each component (passive .vs active), operability, etc. (author)

  1. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally

  2. Surge Pressure Mitigation in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Ashley R.; Fiebig, Mark D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international partnership between NASA and JAXA whose Core spacecraft performs cutting-edge measurements of rainfall and snowfall worldwide and unifies data gathered by a network of precipitation measurement satellites. The Core spacecraft's propulsion system is a blowdown monopropellant system with an initial hydrazine load of 545 kg in a single composite overwrapped propellant tank. At launch, the propulsion system contained propellant in the tank and manifold tubes upstream of the latch valves, with low-pressure helium gas in the manifold tubes downstream of the latch valves. The system had a relatively high beginning-of- life pressure and long downstream manifold lines; these factors created conditions that were conducive to high surge pressures. This paper discusses the GPM project's approach to surge mitigation in the propulsion system design. The paper describes the surge testing program and results, with discussions of specific difficulties encountered. Based on the results of surge testing and pressure drop analyses, a unique configuration of cavitating venturis was chosen to mitigate surge while minimizing pressure losses during thruster maneuvers. This paper concludes with a discussion of overall lessons learned with surge pressure testing for NASA Goddard spacecraft programs.

  3. Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Devices, Potential Navigational Hazards and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

    2009-12-01

    On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies. A technical report addressing our findings is available on this Science and Technology Information site under the Product Title, "Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures". This product is a brochure, primarily for project developers, that summarizes important issues in that more comprehensive report, identifies locations where that report can be downloaded, and identifies points of contact for more information.

  4. New debris flow mitigation measures in southern Gansu, China: a case study of the Zhouqu Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Muqi; Meng, Xingmin; Li, Yajun

    2014-05-01

    A devastating debris flow occurred in Zhouqu of Gansu Province, China, on 8th August 2010, resulting in a catastrophic disaster, with 1463 people being perished. The debris flow valleys, as other numerous debris valleys in the mountainous region, had preventive engineering constructions, such as check dames, properly designed based on common engineering practices for safe guiding the town located right on the debris flow fan. However, failures of such preventive measures often cause even heavier disasters than those that have no human interactions, as the mitigations give a false safety impression. Given such a weird situation and in order to explore a much more effective disaster prevention strategy against debris flows in the mountainous region, this paper makes a comparative study based on two cases in the area of which one had preventive structures and one hasn't. The result shows that inappropriate mitigation measures that have commonly been applying in the disaster reduction practices in the region are of questionable. It is concluded that going with the nature and following with the natural rules are the best strategy for disaster reduction in the region. Key words: debris flow disasters, disaster reduction strategy, preventive measures

  5. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  6. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  7. Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal strategy to reach a short-term target depends on longer-term targets. For instance, the best strategy to achieve European's −20% by 2020 target may be to implement some expensive, high-potential, and long-to-implement options required to meet the −75% by 2050 target. Using just the cheapest abatement options to reach the 2020 target can create a carbon-intensive lock-in and make the 2050 target too expensive to reach. Designing mitigation policies requires information on the speed at which various measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions can be implemented, in addition to the information on the costs and potential of such measures provided by marginal abatement cost curves. - Highlights: • Classification of existing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). • MACCs do not provide separated data on the speed at which measures can be implemented. • Optimal measures to reach a short-term target depend on longer-term targets. • Unique carbon price or aggregated emission-reduction target may be insufficient. • Room for short-term sectoral policies if agents are myopic or governments cannot commit

  8. Assessment of human thermal comfort and mitigation measures in different urban climatotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, N.; Kuttler, W.

    2012-04-01

    This study analyses thermal comfort in the model city of Oberhausen as an example for the densely populated metropolitan region Ruhr, Germany. As thermal loads increase due to climate change negative impacts especially for city dwellers will arise. Therefore mitigation strategies should be developed and considered in urban planning today to prevent future thermal stress. The method consists of the combination of in-situ measurements and numerical model simulations. So in a first step the actual thermal situation is determined and then possible mitigation strategies are derived. A measuring network was installed in eight climatotopes for a one year period recording air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. Based on these parameters the human thermal comfort in terms of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated by RayMan Pro software. Thus the human comfort of different climatotopes was determined. Heat stress in different land uses varies, so excess thermal loads in urban areas could be detected. Based on the measuring results mitigation strategies were developed, such as increasing areas with high evaporation capacity (green areas and water bodies). These strategies were implemented as different plan scenarios in the microscale urban climate model ENVI-met. The best measure should be identified by comparing the range and effect of these scenarios. Simulations were run in three of the eight climatotopes (city center, suburban and open land site) to analyse the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies in several land use structures. These cover the range of values of all eight climatotopes and therefore provide representative results. In the model area of 21 ha total, the modified section in the different plan scenarios was 1 ha. Thus the effect of small-scale changes could be analysed. Such areas can arise due to population decline and structural changes and hold conversion potential. Emphasis was also laid on analysing the

  9. Climate Change And Mitigation Measures For The Hydrometerological Disaster In Himachal Pradesh India- In Light Of Dams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay K. Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the climate of the Himalayan region. Casualties and damage due to hazards in mountain regions will increase irrespective of global warming especially where populations are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations. But climate change will definitely increase risk due to the fact that expected increases of heavy rainfall heat waves and glacier melt will amplify hazards in Himalayan region. The rapid release of melt water and rainfall may combine to trigger debris flows and flash flood in higher ranges including the formation of potentially dangerous lakes. These lakes may breach suddenly resulting in discharge of huge volume of water and debris. Himachal Pradesh had experienced a large number of incidences of Hydro-meteorological disaster HMD since its inception in 1971. Flash flood of March 1975 Dec 1988 Satluj flash flood of August 2000 July 2001 June 2005 Flash flood of July 2005 and Cloud burst in June 2013 are the major natural calamities in Himachal Pradesh. Due to continuous HMD brought heavy toll to the state as the loss was estimated in several thousand millions of rupees and also killed several hundreds of people besides large number of cattle heads. Through this paper we carried out a comprehensive study of past HMD and mitigation measures solution and concluded that these disaster are by their nature difficult to predict and control but it is possible to reduce the risk to lives and property through develop mitigation strategy and plan to construct damsbarrages with awareness and knowledge among local communities about the impacts of global warming natural disaster and the threat to the ecosystem communities and infrastructure are generally inadequate.

  10. Experimental Measurements of e-Cloud Mitigation Using Clearing Electrodes in the DAФNE Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Alesini, D; Gallo, A; Guiducci, S; Milardi, C; Zobov, M; De Santis, S; Demma, Theo; Raimondi, P

    2012-01-01

    Recently the DAФNE electron-positron collider has started delivering luminosity to the KLOE-2 experiment. For this run special metallic electrodes were installed in all the dipole and wiggler magnets of the positron ring to cope with the effects induced by the e-cloud formation. Experimental measurements have shown an impressive effectiveness of these devices in mitigating the e-cloud impact on the positron beam dynamics. The electrodes allow reducing the vertical beam size and the growth rate of transverse instabilities as well as the tune shifts induced by the electron cloud itself. Moreover frequency shift measurements of the vacuum chamber resonances, switching on and off the electrodes, indicate an evident reduction of the electron cloud density. This paper reports and analyses all the experimental observations and measurements done to suppress the e-cloud induced effects by using metallic electrodes.

  11. Secondary effects of urban heat island mitigation measures on air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Forkel, Renate; Emeis, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This study presents numerical simulations analysing the effect of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation measures on the chemical composition of the urban atmosphere. The mesoscale chemical transport model WRF-Chem is used to investigate the impact of urban greening and highly reflective surfaces on the concentrations of primary (CO, NO) as well as secondary pollutants (O3) inside the urban canopy. In order to account for the sub-grid scale heterogeneity of urban areas, a multi-layer urban canopy model is coupled to WRF-Chem. Using this canopy model at its full extend requires the introduction of several urban land use classes in WRF-Chem. The urban area of Stuttgart serves as a test bed for the modelling of a case scenario of the 2003 European Heat Wave. The selected mitigation measures are able to reduce the urban temperature by about 1 K and the mean ozone concentration by 5-8%. Model results however document also negative secondary effects on urban air quality, which are closely related to a decrease of vertical mixing in the urban boundary layer. An increase of primary pollutants NO and CO by 5-25% can be observed. In addition, highly reflective surfaces can increase peak ozone concentration by up to 12% due to a high intensity of reflected shortwave radiation accelerating photochemical reactions.

  12. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

  13. RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility

  14. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  15. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  16. Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

  17. Experimental study designs to improve the evaluation of road mitigation measures for wildlife

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rytwinski, T.; Van der Ree, van der R.; Cunnington, G.M.; Fahrig, L.; Findlay, C.S.; Houlahan, J.; Jaeger, J.A.G.; Soanes, K.; Grift, van der E.A.

    2015-01-01

    An experimental approach to road mitigation that maximizes inferential power is essential to ensure that mitigation is both ecologically-effective and cost-effective. Here, we set out the need for and standards of using an experimental approach to road mitigation, in order to improve knowledge of th

  18. Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Volcan

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  19. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  20. Mitigating Systematic Errors in Angular Correlation Function Measurements from Wide Field Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Morrison, Christopher Brian

    2015-01-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function (PSF) size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10% for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50% for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order $\\sim$1% when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogs are estimated from the observed galaxy over densities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correl...

  1. Rockfall hazard assessment, risk quantification, and mitigation options for reef cove resort development, False Cape, Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlotfeldt, P.

    2009-04-01

    development of a digital elevation model (DEM) used to delineate rock fall runout Zones [1] that included the spatial location of boulder fields mapped within Zones(Figure 2). A Zone is defined as an area above the development on steep sided slopes where falling rocks are channeled into gullies / and or are contained between topographic features such as ridges and spurs that extend down the mountainside. These natural barriers generally ensure that falling rocks do not fall or roll into adjacent Zones; 2. The use of ‘Flow Path Tracing Tool' in Arc GIS spatial analyst to confirm typical descents of boulders in Zones. These were shown to correlated strongly with the endpoints of boulders observed within the development and major clusters of boulders on the beach front; 3. The use of 2-D rockfall trajectory analyses [2] using sections cut along typical 3-D trajectory paths mapped out in ARC GIS per Zone. Sections along typical paths in Zones simulated, to some degree, the 3-D affect or path of rocks as they bounce roll down slope (Figure 3); 4. The calibration of rockfall input parameters (coefficients of normal and tangential restitution, slope roughness, friction angle, etc.) using field identified endpoints and size of fallen rock and boulder; and 5. Undertaking risk evolutions in order to quantify the potential risk for each independent rockfall Zone. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STUDIES The key findings from the study include; 1. Multiple potentially unstable in-situ boulders (some in excess of several thousand tonnes) are present above the development. 2. Similar geological structures (dykes, jointing, etc.) are present in the boulders on the beach front and within the development exposed in-situ bedrock located above the development. Measurement and comparison of the orientation of these geological structures present in boulders with that observed in the in-situ bedrock provided strong evidence that that the boulders have mitigated down slope. 3. Eight discrete Rockfall Runout

  2. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  3. Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

    2011-07-01

    Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

  4. Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

    2009-12-10

    On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a

  5. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott

    2007-01-01

    The idea behind this presentation is how the difference in definitions can change the application. 1. Look at history, concepts, and definitions. 2. Link the test uncertainty ratio (TUR) to measurement decision risk.

  6. Multipath impact on ground-based global positioning system range measurements: Aspects of measurement, modeling, and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, G. J.; Holland, E. A.

    1994-07-01

    Multiple mechanisms propagation paths (multipath) can be the most important error source in ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement of range to the satellites. This multipath error, arising from a combination of the direct path and reflections from objects relatively close to the receiving antenna, can at times exceed the ionospheric delay error, which the two-frequency (1228 and 1575 MHz) GPS signal format is designed to measure and correct. GPS multipath can seriously degrade Differential GPS (DGPS) navigation, geodetic measurements, ionospheric monitoring, and other GPS applications, yet the source of the problem may not be evident without the use of specialized tests. Several techniques have been proposed to reduce the effects of GPS multipath; these include: improved receiver technology, specialized antenna designs, and various modeling or filtering approaches. This paper illustrates the nature of the two-frequency GPS multipath problem with measurement data from typical ground-based installations, exhibiting variation in multipath conditions, ranging from low to quite high for the varying geometries of the available satellite tracks. Leading mitigation techniques are reviewed, with emphasis on multipath modeling. A new simple modeling approach currently being studied by Phillips Laboratory is discussed. This technique takes advantage of the daily repetition of the GPS observation geometry from a ground station to create a 'multipath template' specific to each satellite pass, and reduce multipath effects on successive days. Data is presented showing significant improvement in a severe multipath environment and contrasting the effectiveness of this approach with all-sky modeling techniques. Mitigation techniques for GPS multipath show potential to enable GPS ground-based range and ionospheric measurement to greatly reduce errors at low elevation angles, leading to improved accuracy and wider coverage area capability.

  7. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  8. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.; Madsen, Niels;

    2014-01-01

    that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding...... behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and...... that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred...

  9. PRESS40: a project for involving students in active seismic risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnaba, Carla; Contessi, Elisa; Rosa Girardi, Maria

    2016-04-01

    To memorialize the anniversary of the 1976 Friuli earthquake, the Istituto Statale di Istruzione Superiore "Magrini Marchetti" in Gemona del Friuli (NE Italy), with the collaboration of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), has promoted the PRESS40 Project (Prevenzione Sismica nella Scuola a 40 anni dal terremoto del Friuli, that in English sounds like "Seismic Prevention at School 40 years later the Friuli earthquake"). The project has developed in the 2015-2016 school year, starting from the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake, and it aims to disseminate historical memory, seismic culture and awareness of seismic safety in the young generations, too often unconscious of past experiences, as recent seismic hazard perception tests have demonstrated. The basic idea of the PRESS40 Project is to involve the students in experimental activities to be active part of the seismic mitigation process. The Project is divided into two main parts, the first one in which students learn-receive knowledge from researchers, and the second one in which they teach-bring knowledge to younger students. In the first part of the project, 75 students of the "Magrini Marchetti" school acquired new geophysical data, covering the 23 municipalities from which they come from. These municipalities represent a wide area affected by the 1976 Friuli earthquake. In each locality a significant site was examined, represented by a school area. At least, 127 measurements of ambient noise have been acquired. Data processing and interpretation of all the results are still going on, under the supervision of OGS researchers.The second part of the project is planned for the early spring, when the students will present the results of geophysical survey to the younger ones of the monitored schools and to the citizens in occasion of events to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake.

  10. A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.

    2012-12-01

    VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely

  11. Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    CERN Document Server

    Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-01-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...

  12. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el

  13. Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

  14. Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2016-01-01

    Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict. PMID:27617831

  15. Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2016-01-01

    Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

  16. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic : modeling the risks and health-economic impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George; Nelson, E. Anthony S.; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P.

    2010-01-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic infl

  17. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

  18. Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strohmer, F.

    2013-07-01

    This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

  19. Risks and Mitigating Factors in Decisions to Accept Students with Criminal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Miriam; Swick, Danielle; Richman, Jack

    2009-01-01

    Social work educators have few guidelines to help them evaluate master's of social work applicants with criminal records. This study surveyed 280 field supervisors and asked them to rate their likelihood of rejecting a student with a criminal record depending on crime type and mitigating factors. Results found that supervisors' perception of risk…

  20. Nanomanufacturing concerns about measurements made in the SEM part IV: charging and its mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postek, Michael T.; Vladár, András. E.

    2015-08-01

    This is the fourth part of a series of tutorial papers discussing various causes of measurement uncertainty in scanned particle beam instruments, and some of the solutions researched and developed at NIST and other research institutions. Scanned particle beam instruments especially the scanning electron microscope (SEM) have gone through tremendous evolution to become indispensable tools for many and diverse scientifi c and industrial applications. These improvements have signifi cantly enhanced their performance and made them far easier to operate. But, the ease of operation has also fostered operator complacency. In addition, the user-friendliness has reduced the apparent need for extensive operator training. Unfortunately, this has led to the idea that the SEM is just another expensive "digital camera" or another peripheral device connected to a computer and that all of the problems in obtaining good quality images and data have been solved. Hence, one using these instruments may be lulled into thinking that all of the potential pitfalls have been fully eliminated and believing that, everything one sees on the micrograph is always correct. But, as described in this and the earlier papers, this may not be the case. Care must always be taken when reliable quantitative data are being sought. The fi rst paper in this series discussed some of the issues related to signal generation in the SEM, including instrument calibration, electron beam-sample interactions and the need for physics-based modeling to understand the actual image formation mechanisms to properly interpret SEM images. The second paper has discussed another major issue confronting the microscopist: specimen contamination and methods to eliminate it. The third paper discussed mechanical vibration and stage drift and some useful solutions to mitigate the problems caused by them, and here, in this the fourth contribution, the issues related to specimen "charging" and its mitigation are discussed relative

  1. An overview of representation theorems for static risk measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG YongSheng; YAN JiaAn

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we give an overview of representation theorems for various static risk measures: coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity, law-invariant coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity and respecting stochastic orders.

  2. An overview of representation theorems for static risk measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,we give an overview of representation theorems for various static risk measures:coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity, law-invariant coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity and respecting stochastic orders.

  3. Atmospheric particulate mercury in the megacity Beijing: Efficiency of mitigation measures and assessment of health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, N. J.; Schäfer, J.; Chen, Y.; Blanc, G.; Chen, Y.; Chai, F.; Cen, K.; Norra, S.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric particulate mercury (HgP) was studied before, during, and after the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, China, in August 2008 in order to investigate the efficiency of the emission control measures implemented by the Chinese Government. These source control measures comprised traffic reductions, increase in public transportation, planting of vegetation, establishment of parks, building freeze at construction sites, cleaner production techniques for industries and industry closures in Beijing and also in the surrounding areas. Strictest measures including the "odd-even ban" to halve the vehicle volume were enforced from the 20th of July to the 20th of September 2008. The Olympic period provided the unique opportunity to investigate the efficiency of these comprehensive actions implemented in order to reduce air pollution on a large scale. Therefore, the sampling period covered summer (August, September) and winter (December and January) samples over several years from December 2005 to September 2013. Average HgP concentrations in total suspended particulates (TSP) sampled in August 2008 were 81 ± 39 pg/m3 while TSP mass concentrations were 93 ± 49 μg/m3. This equals a reduction by about 63% for TSP mass and 65% for HgP, respectively, compared to the previous two years demonstrating the short-term success of the measures. However, after the Olympic Games, HgP concentrations increased again to pre-Olympic levels in August 2009 while values in August 2010 decreased again by 30%. Moreover, winter samples, which were 2- to 11-fold higher than corresponding August values, showed decreasing concentrations over the years indicating a long-term improvement of HgP pollution in Beijing. However, regarding adverse health effects, comparisons with soil guideline values and studies from other cities highlighted that HgP concentrations in TSP remained high in Beijing despite respective control measures. Consequently, future mitigation measures need to be tailored more

  4. Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

    2009-12-01

    The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of

  5. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  6. An optimization model for regional air pollutants mitigation based on the economic structure adjustment and multiple measures: A case study in Urumqi city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaowei; Li, Wei; Xie, Yulei; Huang, Guohe; Dong, Changjuan; Yin, Jianguang

    2016-11-01

    A model based on economic structure adjustment and pollutants mitigation was proposed and applied in Urumqi. Best-worst case analysis and scenarios analysis were performed in the model to guarantee the parameters accuracy, and to analyze the effect of changes of emission reduction styles. Results indicated that pollutant-mitigations of electric power industry, iron and steel industry, and traffic relied mainly on technological transformation measures, engineering transformation measures and structure emission reduction measures, respectively; Pollutant-mitigations of cement industry relied mainly on structure emission reduction measures and technological transformation measures; Pollutant-mitigations of thermal industry relied mainly on the four mitigation measures. They also indicated that structure emission reduction was a better measure for pollutants mitigation of Urumqi. Iron and steel industry contributed greatly in SO2, NOx and PM (particulate matters) emission reduction and should be given special attention in pollutants emission reduction. In addition, the scales of iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of SO2 mitigation amounts. The scales of traffic and electric power industry should be reduced with the decrease of NOx mitigation amounts, and the scales of cement industry and iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of PM mitigation amounts. The study can provide references of pollutants mitigation schemes to decision-makers for regional economic and environmental development in the 12th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development of Urumqi.

  7. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  8. Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency

  9. The role of the connectivity in the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides in the environment under Mediterranean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Getino García, Ana Patricia; Alonso Prados, Elena; Alonso Prados, José Luis

    2014-05-01

    Regulation 1107/2009 of the European Commission, establishes the procedure and criteria for approval of active substances and authorization of plant protection products in Europe. One of the aspects to be considered is the assessment of the fate and behavior in the environment of pesticides In this assessment a tiered modeling approach is followed according to the models and scenarios developed by the FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their USe, (named as FOCUS models/scenarios). They consider different European scenarios to determine the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, ground water, surface water and sediment at in-field or edge-of-field scales. During the evaluation process, it is frequent to establish different mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides and to ensure an acceptable risk to non-target species. Parallel to this regulatory process, the directive of sustainable use of pesticides (Directive 2009/128/EC) establishes a framework to reduce the impact of use of pesticides where the implementation of mitigation measures to protect aquatic systems and vulnerable areas will play a main role. Therefore, there is a main need to assess how the risk mitigation measures established at field level under regulation 1107/2009 are acting at landscape/catchment level. The characteristics of the climate, relief and soils in Mediterranean region provoke that soil erosion by water is common at different scales. In arable lands soil rates due to inter-rill, rill and gully erosion may exceed 10 ton/ha/year. This process may be modified by human actions. In this scheme, connectivity concept emerges as essential to understand the transfer process of surface water, sediment and micropollutants throughout catchments and the success of the implemented measures for the sustainable management of pesticides at different scales (field, landscape and catchment levels). In this work a review of published monitoring programs of

  10. Wildlife damages, mitigation measures and livelihood issues around Chitwan National Park, Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Upadhyay, Saroj

    2014-01-01

    Human-wildlife conflict is closely associated with the economics and social well being of the local people. It occurs worldwide and its frequency and severity have been rising annually, especially in Chitwan National Park. Crop damage and loss of livestock by wildlife from park are some of the major causes of park-people conflict in Chitwan National Park. In response to these damages, local people employ different defensive measures to alleviate the losses or reduce the risk of wildlife damag...

  11. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  12. Assessment of environmental impact on air quality by cement industry and mitigating measures: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, G; Madugu, A I

    2010-01-01

    In this study, environmental impact on air quality was evaluated for a typical Cement Industry in Nigeria. The air pollutants in the atmosphere around the cement plant and neighbouring settlements were determined using appropriate sampling techniques. Atmospheric dust and CO2 were prevalent pollutants during the sampling period; their concentrations were recorded to be in the range of 249-3,745 mg/m3 and 2,440-2,600 mg/m3, respectively. Besides atmospheric dust and CO2, the air pollutants such as NOx, SOx and CO were in trace concentrations, below the safe limits approved by FEPA that are 0.0062-0.093 mg/m3 NOx, 0.026 mg/m3 SOx and 114.3 mg/m3 CO, respectively. Some cost-effective mitigating measures were recommended that include the utilisation of readily available and low-cost pozzolans material to produce blended cement, not only could energy efficiency be improved, but carbon dioxide emission could also be minimised during clinker production; and the installation of an advance high-pressure grinding rolls (clinker-roller-press process) to maximise energy efficiency to above what is obtainable from the traditional ball mills and to minimise CO2 emission from the power plant. PMID:19067202

  13. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory;

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness...

  14. Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiko; Mizutani, Tadahito; Komatsu, Keiji; Okazaki, Shun; Ogawa, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Takao; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

    2014-08-01

    The Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2025. The SPICA mission is to be launched into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point in the Sun-Earth system, which allows us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with a mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3m large IR telescope below 6K. The use of 4K / 1K-class Joule-Thomson coolers is proposed in order to cool the telescope and provide a 4K / 1K temperature region for Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs). This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for the SPICA payload module in the Risk-Mitigation-Phase (RMP), in which the activity is focused on mitigating the mission's highest risks. As the result of the RMP activity, most of all the goals have been fully satisfied and the thermal design of the payload module has been dramatically improved.

  15. Approving the ISDWIR method of risk measurement in making risk management decision

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Inte- gral Sum of Differential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matri- ces. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good effects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also compa...

  16. Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis; Badhwar, Gautam; Saganti, Premkumar; Schimmerling, Walter; Wilson, John; Peterson, Leif; Dicello, John

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

  17. Recent Advances in Measurement and Dietary Mitigation of Enteric Methane Emissions in Ruminants

    OpenAIRE

    Patra, Amlan K.

    2016-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emission, which is mainly produced during normal fermentation of feeds by the rumen microorganisms, represents a major contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several enteric CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored recently. A number of new techniques have also been developed and existing techniques have been improved in order to evaluate CH4 mitigation technologies and prepare an inventory of GHG emissions precisely. The aim of this review is to discuss differ...

  18. Recent advances in measurement and dietary mitigation of enteric methane emissions in ruminants

    OpenAIRE

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2016-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emission, which is mainly produced during normal fermentation of feeds by the rumen microorganisms, represents a major contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several enteric CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored recently. A number of new techniques have also been developed and existing techniques have been improved in order to evaluate CH4 mitigation technologies and prepare an inventory of GHG emissions precisely. The aim of this review is to discuss differ...

  19. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.A. Laeven; M. Stadje

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex measur

  20. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2016-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half. PMID:27713927

  1. Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanyi Tang

    Full Text Available Since the emergence of influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus in March-April 2009, very stringent interventions including Fengxiao were implemented to prevent importation of infected cases and decelerate the disease spread in mainland China. The extent to which these measures have been effective remains elusive. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of Fengxiao that may inform policy decisions on improving community-based interventions for management of on-going outbreaks in China, in particular during the Spring Festival in mid-February 2010 when nationwide traveling will be substantially increased. We obtained data on initial laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1 in the province of Shaanxi and used Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC simulations to estimate the reproduction number. Given the estimates for the exposed and infectious periods of the novel H1N1 virus, we estimated a mean reproduction number of 1.68 (95% CI 1.45-1.92 and other A/H1N1 epidemiological parameters. Our results based on a spatially stratified population dynamical model show that the early implementation of Fengxiao can delay the epidemic peak significantly and prevent the disease spread to the general population but may also, if not implemented appropriately, cause more severe outbreak within universities/colleges, while late implementation of Fengxiao can achieve nothing more than no implementation. Strengthening local control strategies (quarantine and hygiene precaution is much more effective in mitigating outbreaks and inhibiting the successive waves than implementing Fengxiao. Either strong mobility or high transport-related transmission rate during the Spring Festival holiday will not reverse the ongoing outbreak, but both will result in a large new wave. The findings suggest that Fengxiao and travel precautions should not be relaxed unless strict measures of quarantine, isolation, and hygiene precaution practices are put in place. Integration and prompt implementation of

  2. Soil bioengineering measures for disaster mitigation and environmental restoration in Central America: authochtonal cuttings suitability and economic efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-04-01

    The use of Soil Bio-Engineering techniques in Developing countries is a relevant issue for Disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of this Discipline. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of Soil Bio-engineering works in the Humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, Soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for Soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Thus, a conclusion can be reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions

  3. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage

  4. DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an

  5. The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy

  6. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  7. Alternative risk measure for decision-making under uncertainty in water management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yueping Xu; YeouKoung Tung; Jia Li; Shaofeng Niu

    2009-01-01

    Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social,economic and environmental changes.Often,uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options,possibly leading to a wrong decision.In this paper,an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean.This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive,general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature.The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects.The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decisionmaking process under uncertainty.

  8. Cultivated microalgae spills: hard to predict/easier to mitigate risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressel, Jonathan; van der Vlugt, Cécile J B; Bergmans, Hans E N

    2014-02-01

    Cultivating algae on a large scale will inevitably lead to spills into natural ecosystems. Most risk analyses have dealt only with transgenic algae, without considering the risks of cultivating the corresponding non-transgenic wild type species. This is despite the long-studied 'paradox of the plankton', which describes the unsuitability of laboratory experimentation or modeling to predict the outcome of introducing non-native algae into a new ecosystem. Risk analyses of transgenic strains of native algae can be based on whether they are more fit or less fit than their wild type, but these are not possible with non-native species. Risks from spills can be minimized by mutagenically or transgenically deleting genes that are unnecessary in culture but obligatory in nature. PMID:24369876

  9. Risk Management and Disaster Mitigation: A Case Study Applied to Haiti

    OpenAIRE

    Charley G. Granvorka; Pascal Saffache

    2012-01-01

    Natural hazards do have impacts on development. Of heavy consequences on both the human life and the economic development these impacts are critical in most of the Caribbean islands in general and specifically in Haiti. Thus, there is an urgent need to implement strategies aiming at reducing risk for lessening losses. By implementing well designed risk management strategies vulnerability can be reduced, and as a consequence, investment and employment can be protected. Even so preparedness to ...

  10. MITIGATION OF RISKS OF MAPPING COMPLEX DATA SOURCES ON THE EXAMPLE OF SOLVENCY II PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Abrahamyan, Nazeli

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this diploma thesis is to describe the basic principles of Business Intelligence, its meaning in business reporting with focus on ensuring relevant information for stakeholders and consequently to identify the major risk factors in complex data mapping process of a project carried out for an insurance company Solvency II regulatory reporting. The identification of risks is based on a detailed analysis of the mapping process and its weak points. The main benefit of the thesis wi...

  11. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  12. Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic modelling for reliable flood risk mitigation activities in the Upper-Medium Tiber River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Giustarini, L.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.

    2009-04-01

    In view of the recent and serious flood events occurred in latest years in Italy, the interest towards accurate methodology for the evaluation of flood prone areas is continually increasing. In particular, this issue is related to urbanization planning activities, civil protection actions (e.g. hydraulic risk warning systems), and the assessment of hydraulic engineering structures behaviour during severe hydrometeorological conditions. In Italy, following the publishing in the late 90's of many laws and regulations concerning hydraulic risk assessment matters, a widespread flooding areas mapping have been carried out (Italian Basin Authorities "PAI" plans). In case of limited availability of historical peak flow data, the flood prone areas estimation was based on the application of hydrologic and hydraulic modelling separately. Moreover, the recent directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks requires from each member state: preliminary flood risk assessment (within December 2011), flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (within December 2013), flood risk management plans (within December 2015). In order to prevent and control flood events in medium-small river basins (e.g. Upper Tiber River basin, Central Italy), the use of hydrologic models coupled with hydraulic ones can be a valuable tool also for real time applications, such as flood risk mitigation and warning activities of the Italian National Warning System Network (composed by regional "Functional Centres" coordinated by the National Civil Protection Department). In this context, two significant flood events occurred in November 2005 and December 2008 in the Umbria Region territory were considered. In this area a hydrometeorological network, characterized by a high temporal and spatial resolution, is operating in real time. Different coupled models were considered to reproduce the selected events, in order to test and compare their reliability and efficiency. Specifically, two semi

  13. Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational ...

  14. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  15. Simulations and measurements on muzzle blast mitigation with sound absorbing barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Berg, F.H.A. van den

    2012-01-01

    Environmental research is ongoing to predict and to mitigate the noise impact of heavy weapons or explosives. In the densely populated area of the Netherlands this is of particular interest for the Ministry of Defence as the shock waves can propagate over large distances. In this research program th

  16. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  17. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  18. Abstracts of Main EssaysThe" Middle Way" of Philosophy and the Mitigation of Thought Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    He Lai Philosophy is of double characters, which means it contains the thought risk of " self-alienation". The thought risk of philosophy is rooted in two extreme trends, namely "the desire to be god's words" and "the let- alone of self-dwarfing". To give up the deep-rooted arrogance and the desire for control and at the same time undertake its duty courageously in a modern society, which is the "Middle way of philosophy". Only through this way, philosophy will avoid the fate of self alienation and its thought risk and prove to be the positive strength to push forward the free life of human being.

  19. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  20. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  1. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  2. The role of food chain traceability in food risk mitigation: expert and consumer outlook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frewer, L.J.; Kher, S.V.

    2009-01-01

    The European Union has enforced mandatory traceability for food business operators for effective monitoring and management of risks associated with food and feed chains. The implementation of such a system needs to take account of stakeholder priorities and expectations. Expert stakeholders (such as

  3. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, J.F.; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Mekonnen, M.M.; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on esti

  4. Mitigating the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency: the case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, J.F.; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Mekonnen, M.M.; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on esti

  5. Spatial risk measures and applications to max-stable processes

    OpenAIRE

    Koch, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    The risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for both the authorities and the insurance industry. This paper concerns risk measures in a spatial setting, in order to introduce the spatial features of damages stemming from environmental events in the measure of the risk. We develop a new concept of spatial risk measure, based on the spatially aggregated loss over the region of interest, and propose an adapted set of axioms for these spatial risk measures. These axioms quanti...

  6. The status quo of radon concentrations and mitigation measures in underground working places of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiaoyan; ZHENG Baoshan; WANG Yan; WANG Xue

    2005-01-01

    By using solid-state nuclear detectors, the air radon concentrations at 87 underground working places were measured during spring, summer and winter, respectively. The survey covered 23 cities whose annual radon concentrations range from 14.9 to 246.4 Bq·m -3 with an overall arithmetic mean value of 106.7 Bq·m -3. The average annual effective dose received by people working in these underground working places was 1.6 mSv, hence the lifetime fatality risk was 1.2×10 -4. Fujian Province had the highest radon level during the survey. It is better to reduce the radon concentration heavily in summer because of higher radon concentration than in winter.

  7. ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM CONVENTIONAL SOURCES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE THE PRODUCED IMPACTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL CALANTER

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The electricity sector represents the sector with the greatest impact in terms of producing climate change, mainly due to the greenhouse gas emissions generated through the burning of fossil fuels. It is not however the only negative aspect associated to the classic technologies of electricity production. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental aspects associated to the technologies for the electricity production from conventional sources and as a conclusion of the research it will also propose certain specific measures designed to mitigate their impacts. Therefore, the analysis will focus on economic issues, such as limited resources of fuels and the significant fluctuation in fuel prices, low energy efficiency, environmental protection expenditures and health issues as a result of the pollution generated by the electricity production and environmental aspects related primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, but also to extraction, transport and storage, aspects concerning the management of waste generated by the energy sector or to the risks associated with the process of producing electricity. In the final part of the paper a few measures will be proposed to mitigate the impact on the environment and economic development of such technologies, as well as increasing energy efficiency, promoting renewable sources of energy, carbon dioxide capture and storage, limiting deforestation, afforestation or the prevention of accidents in the energy sector.

  8. A review of monitoring approaches and outcomes of surface water quality mitigation measures in meso-scale agricultural catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melland, Alice; Jordan, Phil; Murphy, Paul; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger

    2013-04-01

    Critical for an informative feedback loop from scientific monitoring of biophysical change, to making and implementing suitable policy to effect the desired change, are both accurate measurement of biophysical change, and measurement or modelling of the causes of change. For example the European Environment Agency uses the DPSIR framework to assess change in the state (S) of natural resources due to changes in specific drivers (D) and pressures (P) that can have an impact (I) and are the focus of policy responses (R). This paper provides a review of meso-catchment scale studies worldwide that have measured the impacts of agricultural land management practice on surface water quality. Approaches for measuring water quality impacts of agricultural mitigation practices in meso-catchments (1-100 km2) ranged from measuring water quality over a time series, such as before and after a land management change, or over a spatial series such as in paired catchments with and without agricultural practice change (or over a gradient of practices or catchment types), and by cause and effect studies that measure sources, pathways and impacts of practices. Agricultural mitigation measures had no measurable effect, or positive, or negative effects on water quality over periods of 3 to 20 years. In most catchments where beneficial effects of mitigation measures were successfully measured, combinations of measures that address nutrient or pollutant sources, pathways, delivery and impact have been implemented. Successful farm measures included substantial reductions in the intensity of the farming systems, improved engineering and crop management to reduce runoff and drainage transport of nutrients and sediment, as well as high rates of implementation of measures across the catchments. In many cases, the potential to measure improvement in one or more water quality indicators was limited by the impact of a few management or weather events. Reasons that water quality did not improve in

  9. Construction and Measurements of an Improved Vacuum-Swing-Adsorption Radon-Mitigation System

    CERN Document Server

    Street, J; Dunagan, C; Loose, X; Schnee, R W; Stark, M; Sundarnath, K; Tronstad, D

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of $\\sim$0.2$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a $>$$\\,$300$\\times$ reduction from an input activity of $58.6\\pm0.7$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$ to a cleanroom activity of $0.13\\pm0.06$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$.

  10. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Street, J., E-mail: joseph.street@mines.sdsmt.edu; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D. [Department of Physics, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD 57701 (United States)

    2015-08-17

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ∼0.2 Bq m{sup −3}. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m{sup −3} to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m{sup −3}.

  11. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, J.; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D.

    2015-08-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ˜0.2 Bq m-3. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m-3 to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m-3.

  12. Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

  13. Teledermatology and clinical photography: safeguarding patient privacy and mitigating medico-legal risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Paul; Finnane, Anna R; Soyer, H Peter

    2016-03-21

    Capturing clinical images is becoming more prevalent in everyday clinical practice, and dermatology lends itself to the use of clinical photographs and teledermatology. "Store-and-forward", whereby clinical images are forwarded to a specialist who later responds with an opinion on diagnosis and management is a popular form of teledermatology. Store-and-forward teledermatology has proven accurate and reliable, accelerating the process of diagnosis and treatment and improving patient outcomes. Practitioners' personal smartphones and other devices are often used to capture and communicate clinical images. Patient privacy can be placed at risk with the use of this technology. Practitioners should obtain consent for taking images, explain how they will be used, apply appropriate security in their digital communications, and delete images and other data on patients from personal devices after saving these to patient health records. Failing to use appropriate security precautions poses an emerging medico-legal risk for practitioners. PMID:26985853

  14. Teledermatology and clinical photography: safeguarding patient privacy and mitigating medico-legal risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Paul; Finnane, Anna R; Soyer, H Peter

    2016-03-21

    Capturing clinical images is becoming more prevalent in everyday clinical practice, and dermatology lends itself to the use of clinical photographs and teledermatology. "Store-and-forward", whereby clinical images are forwarded to a specialist who later responds with an opinion on diagnosis and management is a popular form of teledermatology. Store-and-forward teledermatology has proven accurate and reliable, accelerating the process of diagnosis and treatment and improving patient outcomes. Practitioners' personal smartphones and other devices are often used to capture and communicate clinical images. Patient privacy can be placed at risk with the use of this technology. Practitioners should obtain consent for taking images, explain how they will be used, apply appropriate security in their digital communications, and delete images and other data on patients from personal devices after saving these to patient health records. Failing to use appropriate security precautions poses an emerging medico-legal risk for practitioners.

  15. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Joep F Schyns; Arwa Hamaideh; Arjen Y. Hoekstra; Mesfin M. Mekonnen; Marlou Schyns

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water sca...

  16. FIREFIGHTS AND FUEL MANAGEMENT: A NESTED ROTATION MODEL FOR WILDFIRE RISK MITIGATION

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Yoder; Marian Lankoande

    2005-01-01

    Scientists and policymakers are increasingly aware that wildfire management efforts should be broadened beyond the century-long emphasis on suppression to include more effective efforts at fuel management. Because wildfire risks change over time as vegetation matures, fuel management can be viewed as a timing problem, much like timber harvest itself. We develop a nested rotation model to examine the fuel treatment timing issue in the context of a forest environment with both timber value and ...

  17. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Shiv Shankar; Uma Shanker; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating...

  18. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  19. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Campbell

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  20. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

    2014-09-01

    This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS) and mitigation efforts - here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  1. Analysis of mitigating measures during steam/hydrogen distributions in nuclear reactor containments with the 3D field code gasflow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports on the recent model additions to the 3D field code GASFLOW and on validation and application analyses for steam/hydrogen transport with inclusion of mitigation measures. The results of the 3D field simulation of the HDR test E11.2 are summarized. Results from scoping analyses that simulate different modes of CO2 inertization for conditions from the HDR test T31.5 are presented. The last part discusses different ways of recombiner modeling during 3D distribution simulations and gives the results from validation calculations for the HDR recombiner test E11.8.1 and the Battelle test MC3. The results demonstrate that field code simulations with computer codes like GASFLOW are feasible today for complex containment geometries and that they are necessary for a reliable prediction of hydrogen/steam distribution and mitigation effects. (author)

  2. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L. [and others

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

  3. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  4. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  5. Choosing organic pesticides over synthetic pesticides may not effectively mitigate environmental risk in soybeans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine A Bahlai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selection of pesticides with small ecological footprints is a key factor in developing sustainable agricultural systems. Policy guiding the selection of pesticides often emphasizes natural products and organic-certified pesticides to increase sustainability, because of the prevailing public opinion that natural products are uniformly safer, and thus more environmentally friendly, than synthetic chemicals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We report the results of a study examining the environmental impact of several new synthetic and certified organic insecticides under consideration as reduced-risk insecticides for soybean aphid (Aphis glycines control, using established and novel methodologies to directly quantify pesticide impact in terms of biocontrol services. We found that in addition to reduced efficacy against aphids compared to novel synthetic insecticides, organic approved insecticides had a similar or even greater negative impact on several natural enemy species in lab studies, were more detrimental to biological control organisms in field experiments, and had higher Environmental Impact Quotients at field use rates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data bring into caution the widely held assumption that organic pesticides are more environmentally benign than synthetic ones. All pesticides must be evaluated using an empirically-based risk assessment, because generalizations based on chemical origin do not hold true in all cases.

  6. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann; Hartmann, Nanna Isabella Bloch;

    2009-01-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide....... Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other...

  7. The role of floodplain restoration in mitigating flood risk, Lower Missouri River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Lindner, Garth; Bitner, Chance

    2009-01-01

    Recent extreme floods on the Lower Missouri River have reinvigorated public policy debate about the potential role of floodplain restoration in decreasing costs of floods and possibly increasing other ecosystem service benefits. The first step to addressing the benefits of floodplain restoration is to understand the interactions of flow, floodplain morphology, and land cover that together determine the biophysical capacity of the floodplain. In this article we address interactions between ecological restoration of floodplains and flood-risk reduction at 3 scales. At the scale of the Lower Missouri River corridor (1300 km) floodplain elevation datasets and flow models provide first-order calculations of the potential for Missouri River floodplains to store floods of varying magnitude and duration. At this same scale assessment of floodplain sand deposition from the 2011 Missouri River flood indicates the magnitude of flood damage that could potentially be limited by floodplain restoration. At the segment scale (85 km), 1-dimensional hydraulic modeling predicts substantial stage reductions with increasing area of floodplain restoration; mean stage reductions range from 0.12 to 0.66 m. This analysis also indicates that channel widening may contribute substantially to stage reductions as part of a comprehensive strategy to restore floodplain and channel habitats. Unsteady 1-dimensional flow modeling of restoration scenarios at this scale indicates that attenuation of peak discharges of an observed hydrograph from May 2007, of similar magnitude to a 10 % annual exceedance probability flood, would be minimal, ranging from 0.04 % (with 16 % floodplain restoration) to 0.13 % (with 100 % restoration). At the reach scale (15–20 km) 2-dimensional hydraulic models of alternative levee setbacks and floodplain roughness indicate complex processes and patterns of flooding including substantial variation in stage reductions across floodplains depending on topographic complexity

  8. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  9. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  10. Risk security and soil loss mitigation: the EU case study of the Sufalnet Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Rigillo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Former and abandoned landfills represent a good opportunity for producing new impervious surfaces for the urban environment, contrasting soil loss (specially the agricultural one and improving the recovery of brownfield. From such perspective, landfill redevelopment could be intended as the beginning of a new life cycle for the site, corresponding to a kick off action for achieving environmental and socio-economic development. This is the purpose of the Sufalnet Project (Sustainable Use of Former and Abandoned Landfill that defines a new approach for landfill redevelopment in form of model strategy by which reducing both the risk of the project failure and of the environmental pollution. Model strategy acts as cultural device for managing redevelop- ment process and its complexity.

  11. Controls Mitigating the Risk of Confidential Information Disclosure by Facebook: Essential Concern in Auditing Information Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ognyanov Kuyumdzhiev

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Facebook allows people to easily share information about themselves which in some cases could be classified as confidential or sensitive in the organisation they’re working for. In this paper we discuss the type of data stored by Facebook and the scope of the terms “confidential” and “sensitive data”. The intersection of these areas shows that there is high possibility for confidential data disclosure in organisations with none or ineffective security policy. This paper proposes a strategy for managing the risks of information leakage. We define five levels of controls against posting non-public data on Facebook - security policy, applications installed on employees’ workstations, specific router software or firmware, software in the cloud, Facebook itself. Advantages and disadvantages of every level are evaluated. As a result we propose developing of new control integrated in the social media.

  12. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain

  13. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test

  14. Bayesian Methods for Measuring Operational Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Carol Alexander

    2000-01-01

    The likely imposition by regulators of minimum standards for capital to cover 'other risks' has been a driving force behind the recent interest in operational risk management. Much discussion has been centered on the form of capital charges for other risks. At the same time major banks are developing models to improve internal management of operational processes, new insurance products for operational risks are being designed and there is growing interest in alternative risk transfer, through...

  15. Alkali Silicate Glass Coatings for Mitigating the Risks of Tin Whiskers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Dave; Wilcoxon, Ross; Lower, Nate; Grossman, Dan

    2015-12-01

    Alkali silicate glass (ASG) coatings were investigated as a possible method for inhibiting tin whisker initiation and growth. The aqueous-based ASG formulations used in this study were deposited with equipment and conditions that are typical of those used to apply conventional conformal coatings. Processes for controlling ASG coating properties were developed, and a number of ASG-based coating combinations were applied to test components with pure tin surfaces. Coatings were applied both in a laboratory environment at Rockwell Collins and in a manufacturing environment at Plasma Ruggedized Solutions. Testing in elevated humidity/temperature environments and subsequent inspection of the test articles identified coating combinations that inhibited tin whisker growth as well as other material combinations that actually accelerated tin whisker growth. None of the coatings evaluated in this study, including conventional acrylic and Parylene conformal coatings, completely prevented the formation of tin whiskers. Two of the coatings were particularly effective at reducing the risks of whisker growth, albeit through different mechanisms. Parylene conformal coating almost, but not completely, eliminated whisker formation, and only a few tin whiskers were found on these surfaces during the study. A composite of ASG and alumina nanoparticles inhibited whisker formation to a lesser degree than Parylene, but did disrupt whisker growth mechanisms so as to inhibit the formation of long, and more dangerous, tin whiskers. Additional testing also demonstrated that the conformal coatings had relatively little effect on the dielectric loss of a stripline test structure operating at frequencies over 30 GHz.

  16. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  17. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stöβlein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  18. Degrees of connectivity: Systems model for upstream risk assessment and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambatese, John; AlOmari, Kasim

    2016-08-01

    There is growing recognition that in order to further improve safety performance, attention needs to be given beyond the immediate working conditions and worker actions. A systems approach to construction safety enables considering: multiple project elements simultaneously; connections between different elements; and all system elements affected by safety risk. This paper describes recent and current research to conceptualize a typical building project in terms of connections between workers, activities, and design elements, and to verify and analyze impacts of the design and worker interactions on worker safety. Prior research provides the basis for a network tying the design elements, construction activities, and work crews on a typical building project together along with the extent of interaction between each of the system elements in terms of safety. In conjunction with this systems approach, the researchers propose a concept for viewing and managing construction safety through four different types of connections, or "degrees of connectivity," between the different workers, activities, and design elements in the system. The degrees of connectivity are defined as: interacting with the design element during its construction (DoC #1); interacting with the design element in its final form to attach another component to it (DoC #2) or by working in the vicinity of it (DoC #3); and indirectly interacting with the design element through another worker (DoC #4). To support and verify the presence of the concept in practice, the researchers conducted a survey of construction personnel. The survey results confirm that the four different degrees of connectivity are present and felt during construction operations, and indicate that attention should be given to all design elements, activities, and workers to which a worker is "connected". According to the survey respondents, DoC's #1 and #2 are recognized as the most widely present on construction sites. Eighty percent of

  19. The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

    2015-12-01

    Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

  20. Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs

  1. Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

  2. Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, T.G.; Dudney, C.S.; Monar, K.P.; Landguth, D.C.; Wilson, D.L.; Hawthorne, A.R.; Hubbard, L.M.; Gadsby, K.J.; Bohac, D.L.; Decker, C.A.

    1987-12-01

    A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs.

  3. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    CERN Document Server

    Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

    2014-01-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

  4. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.

    2013-08-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ˜20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m3.

  5. NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaz K. Maheshwari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

  6. EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon: initial results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong region of eastern Pennsylvania. Three alternative active soil ventilation approaches were tested: suction on the void network within the concrete block basement walls; suction on the footing drain tile system; and suction on the aggregate underneath the concrete slab. The initial 18 mitigation installations were designed to demonstrate techniques which would have low to moderate installation and operating costs. Where effective closure of major openings in the block walls is possible, suction on the wall voids has proved to be extremely effective, able to reduce homes having very high radon Working Levels (up to 7 WL) to 0.02 WL and less. However, where inaccessible major openings are concealed within the wall, it is more difficult and/or more expensive to develop adequate suction on the void network, and performance is reduced. Testing is continuing to demonstrate the steps required to achieve high performance with wall suction in homes with such difficult-to close walls. Drain tile suction can be very effective where the drain tiles completely surround the home; drain tile suction is the least expensive and most aesthetic of the active soil ventilation approaches, but appears susceptible to spikes in radon levels when the basement is depressurized. Sub-slab suction as tested in this study - with one or two individual suction points in the slab - does not appear adequate to ensure sustained high levels of reduction on block wall basement homes; it appears to effectively treat slab-related soil gas entry routes so long as a uniform layer of aggregate is present, but it does not appear to effectively treat the wall-related entry routes. Closure of major openings might have improved sub-slab suction performance. 5 figures, 3 tables

  7. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall

  8. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.

    2012-11-01

    The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves

  9. Law invariant risk measures on L∞ (ℝd)

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Kusuoka (2001) has obtained explicit representation theorems for comonotone risk measures and, more generally, for law invariant risk measures. These theorems pertain, like most of the previous literature, to the case of scalar-valued risks. Jouini, Meddeb, and Touzi (2004) and Burgert and Rüschendorf (2006) extended the notion of risk measures to the vector-valued case. Recently Ekeland, Galichon, and Henry (2009) and Rüschendorf (2006, 2010) obtained extensions of the above theorems of Kusu...

  10. Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

    2007-07-01

    The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

  11. Study on risk measurement about ammunition-rocket system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gu Xiaohui; Zhao Youshou

    2005-01-01

    Modern ammunition-rocket system is a complicated multidisciplinary system. During its development,undetermined factors will bring many risks. This paper elaborates the importance of risk analysis approach to ammunition-rocket system development and analyses various methods of risk analysis and estimation. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, the risk measurement function with characteristics of risk preference is given provided that the risk preference characteristic of behavior maker is risk neutral of fixed constant. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk.Taking anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the paper verifies the efficiency of the method and shows that it has a scientific and practical value.

  12. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    2014-01-01

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk compensat

  13. Allocation of risk capital based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengli Zheng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The potential of diversified portfolio leads to the risk capital allocation problem. There are many kinds of methods or rules to allocate risk capital.  However, they have flaws, such as non-continuity, unfairness. In order to get a better method, we propose a new risk measure to be the base of risk capital allocation rule. Design/methodology/approach: We proposed two kinds of allocation methods: one is marginal risk contribution based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure(IE, the other one is to combine the minimal excess allocation(EBA principle and IE into risk capital allocation. The iso-entropic coherent risk measure has many advantages over others; it is continuous and more powerful in distinguishing risks, consistent with higher-order stochastic dominances than other risk measures. And EBA is consistent with the amount of risk, which means fairness for risk capital allocation. Findings: Through cases, simulations and empirical application, it shows that these two allocation rules satisfy some good properties, can be more efficient, more precise and fairer. And the EBA based on IE may be the better one. Research limitations/implications: However, there are some problems still open. One is how to treat the negative value of allocation. Second is that the consistence between the allocated risk capital and the amount of the risk needs to be studied further. Originality/value: A good risk measure is very important for risk capital allocation. We proposed two methods to deal with risk capital allocation based on a new coherent risk measure called iso-entropic risk measure, which is smooth and consistent with higher-order stochastic dominance and has higher resolution of risk. It shows that the risk capital allocation rules based on iso-entropic risk measure are better than the other rules.

  14. Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  15. On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R. Kaas; R.J.A. Laeven

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the s

  16. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  17. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  18. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  19. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although

  20. Traffic related air pollution : spatial variation, health effects and mitigation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkema, M.B.A.

    2011-01-01

    Air pollution is probably the most intensely studied field in today’s environmental health research. The extensive body of literature on health effects associated with air pollution exposure has lead to prioritization of air pollution as public health risk factor and air quality regulations worldwid

  1. Risk Measures for Autocorrelated Hedge Fund Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Di Cesare (Antonio); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractStandard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds because of serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean, variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Following their lead, adjusted downside and glo

  2. How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peste, Filipa, E-mail: filipapeste@gmail.com [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Paula, Anabela [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Luís P. da [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); MARE and CEF, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra (Portugal); Bernardino, Joana; Pereira, Pedro [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Mascarenhas, Miguel [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Costa, Hugo [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Vieira, José; Bastos, Carlos [Department of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics / IEETA, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Fonseca, Carlos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Maria João Ramos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); PPGBAN, Department of Zoology, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); PPGEC, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil)

    2015-02-15

    Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings.

  3. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling using Applications of Vine Copulas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__abstract__ This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite nancial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in nancial applica

  4. Risk-adjusted performance measures and implied risk-attitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plantinga, Auke; Groot, Sebastiaan de

    2001-01-01

    In this article we study the relation between performance measures and preferences functions. In particular, we examine to what extent performance measures can be used as alternatives for preference functions. We study the Sharpe ratio, Sharpe’s alpha, the expected return measure, the Sortino ratio,

  5. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2016-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  6. Mitigation measures to contain the environmental impact of urban areas: a bibliographic review moving from the life cycle approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belussi, Lorenzo; Barozzi, Benedetta

    2015-12-01

    The global environmental impact of urban areas has greatly increased over the years, due to the growth of urbanisation and the associated increase in management costs. There are several measures aimed at mitigating this impact that affect in different ways the environmental, economic and societal spheres. This article has analysed a selection of different mitigation measures, related to the built environment, according to the life cycle approach, aimed at identifying the procedural features chosen by the different authors and defining a common way to deal with this issue. In particular, all the individual single steps of a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing of the different studies are analysed and the results of the individual measures are highlighted. The analysis has shown how the scientific literature is mainly focused on the evaluation of the impact of technological solutions related to individual buildings (cool/green roof). Less interest is shown in the solutions for urban areas, while, as far as the impact on greenhouse gas emissions is concerned, some studies are shifting the target to a global scale. Due to the accuracy whereby the calculation of the impact indicators deals with and structures the life cycle methods, opportunities to compare studies developed by different authors are quite rare and hard to find. Hence the need to find a simple, intuitive and flexible scheme to combine some of the most useful results of the bibliographical studies, in a comparative outline of different technological solutions, which can support the decision-making phase through a rough assessment. PMID:26563232

  7. What risk measures are time consistent for all filtrations?

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Samuel N.

    2010-01-01

    We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not atomic then it is either linear or an essential supremum.

  8. Measuring and managing risk in UK listed firms

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    The last twenty years have seen sustained pressure on firms in the UK and globally to demonstrate good corporate governance and, in particular, to manage risk in an appropriate manner; the overall aim of this study is therefore to contribute to the understanding of how to measure and manage risk at the firm level more effectively. This involves three specific research objectives: to investigate the measurement properties of some of the most commonly used corporate risk measures; to investiga...

  9. Risk reduction measures applied to horizontal directional drilling of a complex pipeline river crossing in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cocciolo, P.P.; Zeleny, B. [Terasen Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    The Trans Mountain Pipe Line (TMPL) system transports crude oil and refined products from Edmonton, Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia (BC) and northwest Washington State. The lower mainland of BC along Canada's west coast is classed as a seismic zone 4, the highest risk earthquake classification. However, construction of the NPS 24, 1142 km pipeline was completed in 1953 when both seismic design knowledge and seismic risk awareness were limited. A seismic overview assessment completed in 1998 of the 140 km segment of the pipeline from Hope station to the Burnaby terminal, revealed that the crossing at the Fraser River in southwestern BC is vulnerable to damage in the 1/475 year return and 1/2000 year return earthquakes. The configuration at the north and south banks of the Fraser River are at risk due to lateral soil spreading from liquefaction during a large earthquake. Mitigating seismic risk in liquefiable areas includes straightening the pipeline and aligning parallel to the direction of lateral spreading, and minimizing the length of pipe in liquefiable soils. The most effective alternative from a cost seismic risk mitigation perspective was found to be the replacement of the pipeline crossing by horizontal directional drilling (HDD). In 2003, HDD replacement was completed. The complexity and risk of the HDD crossing were high due to the level of urban development and the existence of major linear infrastructure on both sides of the river. Measures were applied to reduce construction risk, environmental damage, as well as delays or inability to complete the crossings. Strategies included proper pipeline route selection, site specific geotechnical investigations, HDD annular pressure monitoring, HDD electronic drilling recording, and a contractor prequalification process. Over a period of one month, a 1293 m long HDD crossing was installed without incident. 4 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  10. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....... on the value of the uncertain parameters. In this case, a problem reformulation is needed to properly define the optimization problem. In this paper we describe the concept of risk and we explore how to handle the risk by using appropriate risk measures. We provide a review on various risk measures reporting...

  11. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    On 28 January 2009, a large rock slide in weathered metamorphic rocks activated at San Benedetto Ullano, triggered by abundant and prolonged rainfall. A detailed geomorphological survey, with periodic inspections during the entire phase of mobilization, was promptly started. Benchmarks were placed along fractures opened on the margins of the landslide, and measurements of surface movements were carried out by a team of volunteers. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers was implemented, combined with a meteorological station. Surveys and monitoring data allowed to implement an embryonic decisional support system (DSS) to handle the emergency [1]. Between February and April, the landslide showed minor displacements, with a retrogressive type of activity distribution, plus a tendency of enlargement towards the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up: the landslide extended for ca. 600 m in length, with an average width of ca. 130 m. Mobilization only involved minor displacements (few decimetres) at the margin of the village, affecting a depth of 15-35 meters along the longitudinal profile. A geological-technical scheme of the slope was drawn, based on data from a set of five exploratory wells, equipped with four inclinometers and one piezometer. Parametric, limit-equilibrium parametric analyses were then performed with respect to fluctuations of the water table: accordingly, the first activation of the landslide was expected - as actually observed - in the central portion of the slope when groundwater table approaches the surface [2]. Thanks to the DSS, further activations occurred in the following years could be properly managed by the Major through closing of roads and evacuation of houses. In fact, between 31 January and 1 February 2010, again due to abundant rainfall, the beginning of a new phase of mobilization was announced by the monitoring network. On 10 February, new mitigation measures were issued; on 11 February, slope

  12. Slope Stability Analysis and Mitigation Measures in the Area of the Sighişoara Medieval Citadel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George-Cătălin Silvaş

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sighişoara Medieval Citadel has a very big importance to the cultural, architectural and historical heritage of Romania. The citadel is situated on the Fortress Hill and it is the only inhabited fortress in Romania. But underneath the beauty of the Citadel lies some problems that only the inhabitants and the authorities know. These problems consist in the presence of the slope instability phenomenon. Throughout the years the slopes of the Fortress Hill, because of a series of factors, became instable. Thus landslides occurred that affected the Citadel fortress walls. There are still some areas of the walls that have never been reconstructed yet. So a slope stability analysis shall show if the slope instability phenomenon is still active and the mitigation measures recommended will stop the activity of this phenomenon.

  13. Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

    2013-06-01

    The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve

  14. Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postek, K.S.; den Hertog, D.; Melenberg, B.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study distributionally robust constraints on risk measures (such as standard deviation less the mean, Conditional Value-at-Risk, Entropic Value-at-Risk) of decision-dependent random variables. The uncertainty sets for the discrete probability distributions are defined using statisti

  15. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Differentiating causes for erosion at the catchment scale: do soil conservation measures mitigate weather dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barneveld, Robert; Greipsland, Inga

    2016-04-01

    The efficacy of most measures to control soil loss is well established at the field or plot scale. Less well documented are the changes in hydrological behaviour and sediment production at the scale of the (small) catchment. In Norway, incentives to reduce tillage have been in place for over decades. However, even long time (20 years) discharge monitoring of a series of small catchments does not show a clear effect of the application of conservation measures. This research hypothesizes that the effect of weather conditions for a 4.2 km2 catchment in southeastern Norway outweighs the effect of conservation measures in the time series on runoff and sediment load. To test this, it was assumed that trends and changes in soil loss E over time are the product of an agromic index C, precipitation P and rainfall erosivity R. The values of C were calculated based on extensive farm records, covering every tillage operation for every field in the catchment for the period of investigation. Runoff and sediment load records were used to parameterise and test different correlative models. In order to quantify the effect of topography on the degree to which conservations measures reduce soil loss at catchment level, a spatially distributed connectivity index was calculated and multiplied with C. Calculations were carried out for a 10 year period, in monthly time steps. The following statistical models proved the most promising to correlate sediment load to precipitation and agronomic practice. Et=a \\cdot Ptb \\cdot Pt-1c \\cdot Ctd Et=a \\cdot Rtb \\cdot Pt-1c \\cdot Ctd where Pt-1c, the precipition in the prior month, is a proxy indicator for antecedent moisture conditions. The results show that precipitation dynamics outweigh the effect of soil conservation measures for this typical agricultural catchment. It also shows that the inclusion of a hydrological connectivity index improves the quantification of the effect of soil conservation measures on the catchment scale.

  17. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  18. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy;

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can...

  19. Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furnish, M.D.; Boslough, M.B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gray, G.T. III [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Remo, J.L. [Quantametrics, Inc., St. James, NY (United States)

    1994-07-01

    We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2--20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

  20. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  1. A Comonotonic Image of Independence for Additive Risk Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R. Kaas; R.J.A. Laeven; Q. Tang

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a new axiomatic characterization of risk measures that are additive for independent random variables. In contrast to previous work, we include an axiom that guarantees monotonicity of the risk measure. Furthermore, the axiom of additivity for independent random variables is relat

  2. Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  3. Cost effectiveness comparison of certain transportation measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in San Diego County, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    California's overarching mandate to achieve 1990 levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2020 (AB 32, 2005), and the ensuing recent regulations (SB 375, CEQA updates) require local and regional governments to assess GHG mitigation policies, including on-road transportation. The regulations do not make cost-effectiveness a primary criteria for choosing measures but cost remains important to a variety of stakeholders. This communication summarizes results from GHG and cost analysis for seven actual San Diego County road transportation policies: telecommute, vanpools, a bicycle strategy, an increase in mass transit use, parking policies (parking pricing, preferred parking for electric vehicles), an increased local fuel tax and speed harmonization (signal re-timing, roundabouts). Net costs are calculated as the sum of direct costs and benefits to the administering agency, the employer and the individual. Net costs per metric ton GHG abated vary greatly across measures, from negative to high positive (more than US $1000). We find that local GHG cost cannot be sensibly compared to other carbon or GHG policy costs outside the local context for a variety of reasons, but especially because measures have not been adopted primarily for carbon or GHG abatement potential or on the basis of cost effectiveness

  4. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde exposure mitigation in US residences: In-home measurements of ventilation control and source control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hult, Erin L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Willem, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Phillip N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hotchi, Toshifumi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Russell, Marion L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Singer, Brett C. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Measurements were taken in new US residences to assess the extent to which ventilation and source control can mitigate formaldehyde exposure. Increasing ventilation consistently lowered indoor formaldehyde concentrations. However, at a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h-1, increasing ventilation was up to 60% less effective than would be predicted if the emission rate were constant. This is consistent with formaldehyde emission rates decreasing as air concentrations increase, as observed in chamber studies. In contrast, measurements suggest acetaldehyde emission was independent of ventilation rate. To evaluate the effectiveness of source control, formaldehyde concentrations were measured in Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certified/Indoor airPLUS homes constructed with materials certified to have low emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC). At a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h-1, and adjusting for home age, temperature and relative humidity, formaldehyde concentrations in homes built with low-VOC materials were 42% lower on average than in reference new homes with conventional building materials. Without adjustment, concentrations were 27% lower in the low-VOC homes. The mean and standard deviation of formaldehyde concentration were 33 μg m-3 and 22 μg m-3 for low-VOC homes and 45 μg m-3 and 30 μg m-3 for conventional.

  5. Measuring, and identifying predictors of, women's perceptions of three types of breast cancer risk: population risk, absolute risk and comparative risk

    OpenAIRE

    Apicella, C.; Peacock, S.J.; Andrews, L.; Tucker, K.; Daly, M B; Hopper, J L

    2009-01-01

    Although a key function of cancer genetics services is to provide risk information, to date there has been little consistency in the way in which breast cancer risk perception has been measured. The aims of the study were to measure estimates of (i) population risk, (ii) absolute risk and (iii) comparative risk of developing breast cancer for Ashkenazi Jewish women, and to determine predictors of breast cancer risk perception. Of 152 women, 107 (70%) completed all questions. The mean (s.d.) e...

  6. Resonance Frequency of Optical Microbubble Resonators: Direct Measurements and Mitigation of Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosci, Alessandro; Berneschi, Simone; Giannetti, Ambra; Farnesi, Daniele; Cosi, Franco; Baldini, Francesco; Nunzi Conti, Gualtiero; Soria, Silvia; Barucci, Andrea; Righini, Giancarlo; Pelli, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    This work shows the improvements in the sensing capabilities and precision of an Optical Microbubble Resonator due to the introduction of an encaging poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) box. A frequency fluctuation parameter σ was defined as a score of resonance stability and was evaluated in the presence and absence of the encaging system and in the case of air- or water-filling of the cavity. Furthermore, the noise interference introduced by the peristaltic and the syringe pumping system was studied. The measurements showed a reduction of σ in the presence of the encaging PMMA box and when the syringe pump was used as flowing system. PMID:27589761

  7. Advanced Receiver Design for Mitigating Multiple RF Impairments in OFDM Systems: Algorithms and RF Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Kiayani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct-conversion architecture-based orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM systems are troubled by impairments such as in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q imbalance and carrier frequency offset (CFO. These impairments are unavoidable in any practical implementation and severely degrade the obtainable link performance. In this contribution, we study the joint impact of frequency-selective I/Q imbalance at both transmitter and receiver together with channel distortions and CFO error. Two estimation and compensation structures based on different pilot patterns are proposed for coping with such impairments. The first structure is based on preamble pilot pattern while the second one assumes a sparse pilot pattern. The proposed estimation/compensation structures are able to separate the individual impairments, which are then compensated in the reverse order of their appearance at the receiver. We present time-domain estimation and compensation algorithms for receiver I/Q imbalance and CFO and propose low-complexity algorithms for the compensation of channel distortions and transmitter IQ imbalance. The performance of the compensation algorithms is investigated with computer simulations as well as with practical radio frequency (RF measurements. The performance results indicate that the proposed techniques provide close to the ideal performance both in simulations and measurements.

  8. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R.J.A. Laeven

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the Esscher

  9. Dynamic risk measuring under model uncertainty: taking advantage of the hidden probability measure

    CERN Document Server

    Bion-Nadal, Jocelyne

    2010-01-01

    We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability measures hidden behind a given set of probability measures possibly non dominated. Taking advantage of this result, we exhibit a dual representation that completely characterizes the dynamic risk measure. We prove continuity and characterize time consistency. Then, we prove regularity for all processes associated to time consistent convex dynamic risk measures. We also study factorization through time for sublinear risk measures. Finally we consider examples (uncertain volatility and G-expectations).

  10. Vigilant Measures of Risk and the Demand for Contingent Claims

    OpenAIRE

    Ghossoub, Mario

    2012-01-01

    I examine a class of utility maximization problems with a not necessarily law-invariant utility, and with a not necessarily law-invariant risk measure constraint. The objective function is an integral of some function U with respect to some probability measure P, and the constraint set contains some risk measure constraint which is not necessarily P-law-invariant. This introduces some heterogeneity in the perception of uncertainty. The primitive U is a function of some given underlying random...

  11. Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

    2014-05-01

    Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest

  12. Review of Offshore Wind Farm Impact Monitoring and Mitigation with Regard to Marine Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfuss, Ursula K; Sparling, Carol E; Arnot, Charlie; Judd, Adrian; Coyle, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring and mitigation reports from 19 UK and 9 other European Union (EU) offshore wind farm (OWF) developments were reviewed, providing a synthesis of the evidence associated with the observed environmental impact on marine mammals. UK licensing conditions were largely concerned with mitigation measures reducing the risk of physical and auditory injury from pile driving. At the other EU sites, impact monitoring was conducted along with mitigation measures. Noise-mitigation measures were developed and tested in UK and German waters in German government-financed projects. We highlight some of the review's findings and lessons learned with regard to noise impact on marine mammals.

  13. Review of Offshore Wind Farm Impact Monitoring and Mitigation with Regard to Marine Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfuss, Ursula K; Sparling, Carol E; Arnot, Charlie; Judd, Adrian; Coyle, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring and mitigation reports from 19 UK and 9 other European Union (EU) offshore wind farm (OWF) developments were reviewed, providing a synthesis of the evidence associated with the observed environmental impact on marine mammals. UK licensing conditions were largely concerned with mitigation measures reducing the risk of physical and auditory injury from pile driving. At the other EU sites, impact monitoring was conducted along with mitigation measures. Noise-mitigation measures were developed and tested in UK and German waters in German government-financed projects. We highlight some of the review's findings and lessons learned with regard to noise impact on marine mammals. PMID:26611084

  14. Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kant, A.

    1996-12-31

    The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).

  15. A Multi-stage Carcinogenesis Model to Investigate Caloric Restriction as a Potential Tool for Post-irradiation Mitigation of Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Shusuke; Blyth, Benjamin John; Shang, Yi; Morioka, Takamitsu; Kakinuma, Shizuko; Shimada, Yoshiya

    2016-01-01

    The risk of radiation-induced cancer adds to anxiety in low-dose exposed populations. Safe and effective lifestyle changes which can help mitigate excess cancer risk might provide exposed individuals the opportunity to pro-actively reduce their cancer risk, and improve mental health and well-being. Here, we applied a mathematical multi-stage carcinogenesis model to the mouse lifespan data using adult-onset caloric restriction following irradiation in early life. We re-evaluated autopsy records with a veterinary pathologist to determine which tumors were the probable causes of death in order to calculate age-specific mortality. The model revealed that in both irradiated and unirradiated mice, caloric restriction reduced the age-specific mortality of all solid tumors and hepatocellular carcinomas across most of the lifespan, with the mortality rate dependent more on age owing to an increase in the number of predicted rate-limiting steps. Conversely, irradiation did not significantly alter the number of steps, but did increase the overall transition rate between the steps. We show that the extent of the protective effect of caloric restriction is independent of the induction of cancer from radiation exposure, and discuss future avenues of research to explore the utility of caloric restriction as an example of a potential post-irradiation mitigation strategy. PMID:27390741

  16. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

    OpenAIRE

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T.; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q.; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W.; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E.; Baker, John E

    2015-01-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days af...

  17. Multi scale risk measurement in electricity market:a wavelet based value at risk approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guu; Sy-Ming; Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity ...

  18. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  19. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Snow

    2010-01-01

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these type...

  20. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhang Liao

    Full Text Available Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C. We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests. Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1 in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years, stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen, tree species origin (native vs. exotic of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt, and study regions (tropic vs. temperate. The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  1. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation. PMID:20523733

  2. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

  3. Natural Hazards and Mitigation Measures in USA%美国的自然灾害和防灾减灾

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴佳尔

    2009-01-01

    美国是一个自然灾害多发国家,整个西部、中部和东部是地震活跃地区,南部沿海地区遭受飓风袭击,干旱和洪水也非常严重.由于对公共安全的重视,许多自然灾害并未造成严重的人员伤害.例如,1994年北加州地震袭击了人口稠密的洛杉矶地区,人员伤亡仅61人.文章讨论了美国的自然灾害,并认为长期的防灾工作是非常必要的.%Natural disasters frequently happers in U.S.A.,frequent earthquakes in the whole western, central and eastern pant, hurricanes in the costal area in the south, and serious drought and floods. Because public security was paid great attention to,many to natural disasters didit cause heary casualties. For example, 61 died in the northern califoria earthquake in 1994 which atlacked populous Los Angeles.This paper discusses the presence of natural hazards in the US and the response measures that the author believes are keys to the long-term hazard mitigation.

  4. Cost–Benefit Analyses of Mitigation Measures Aimed at Reducing Collisions with Large Ungulates in the United States and Canada: a Decision Support Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J. Ament

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife–vehicle collisions, especially with deer (Odocoileus spp., elk (Cervus elaphus, and moose (Alces alces are numerous and have shown an increasing trend over the last several decades in the United States and Canada. We calculated the costs associated with the average deer–, elk–, and moose–vehicle collision, including vehicle repair costs, human injuries and fatalities, towing, accident attendance and investigation, monetary value to hunters of the animal killed in the collision, and cost of disposal of the animal carcass. In addition, we reviewed the effectiveness and costs of 13 mitigation measures considered effective in reducing collisions with large ungulates. We conducted cost–benefit analyses over a 75-year period using discount rates of 1%, 3%, and 7% to identify the threshold values (in 2007 U.S. dollars above which individual mitigation measures start generating benefits in excess of costs. These threshold values were translated into the number of deer–, elk–, or moose–vehicle collisions that need to occur per kilometer per year for a mitigation measure to start generating economic benefits in excess of costs. In addition, we calculated the costs associated with large ungulate–vehicle collisions on 10 road sections throughout the United States and Canada and compared these to the threshold values. Finally, we conducted a more detailed cost analysis for one of these road sections to illustrate that even though the average costs for large ungulate–vehicle collisions per kilometer per year may not meet the thresholds of many of the mitigation measures, specific locations on a road section can still exceed thresholds. We believe the cost–benefit model presented in this paper can be a valuable decision support tool for determining mitigation measures to reduce ungulate–vehicle collisions.

  5. A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastián Becerra; Gregory Claeys; Juan Francisco Martínez

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this work is to construct an appropriate measure of liquidity risk for Chilean banks. There are already several measures of liquidity risk in the literature. Most of these metrics are based on specific assumptions and expert opinion. In order to overcome the potential problems associated with discretionary assumptions, and to exploit the information available, similar to the work of Drehman and Nikolaou (2012), we propose a metric based on the behavior of banks in the procure...

  6. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2015-03-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

  7. Theory and Method of Commercial Bank Credit Risk Measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BeimingXiao; JinlinLi

    2004-01-01

    Calculating and measuring credit risk is the key technique of commercial bank management. International relative achievements mainly include Z and ZETA modelof Altman, Standard&pool external rating system, Moody external rating system, KMV model, CreditMetrics model, CreditRisk model, McKinsey model and so on. Chinese relative achievements mainly includes: credit score method, comprehensive estimating method,discriminative analysis method, artificial neural network method etc. This paper analyzes the relative research achievements of credit risk measurement and the future research trend.

  8. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  9. Key Escrow Attack Risk and Preventive Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Cryptographic technology is always a highly sensitive dual-use technology. All nations have to face a dilemma in terms of password usage: on the one hand, to fully guarantee the safety and confidentiality of personal communication, as well as personal privacy and communication freedom required by law; on the other hand, to make sure law-enforcing departments and security organs crack down and prevent crime. It might be a great help for crime and terrorist organizations that the wide application of cryptography is made public. Many people believe that plain text communicated through the public network is accessible to an appropriate government agency if law permits. Therefore, it has become a continuous hot issue of cryptographic technology that how to design a cryptographic system through which legal persons are able to protect the safety of their information, yet being monitored by government in the range permitted by law. In this study, an in-depth study is carried out on the controversial key escrow technology, analyzing its composition and algorithm and pointing out possible attacks and preventive measures.

  10. Assessing the uncertainties of climate policies and mitigation measures. Viewpoints on biofuel production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments

    OpenAIRE

    Soimakallio, Sampo

    2012-01-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation requires the implementation of effective and equitable climate policy and GHG emission reduction measures. The objective of this study was to explore the significance of the uncertainties related to GHG emission reduction measures and policies by providing viewpoints on biofuels production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments between countries and country groups. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and macro-level scen...

  11. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  12. A Value at Risk Approach to Measuring Equity Trading Risk Exposure in Emerging Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Al Janabi, Mazin A. M.

    2007-01-01

    The attempt of this article is to fill a gap in the equity trading risk management literature and particularly from the perspective of emerging and illiquid financial markets, such as in the context of the Moroccan stock market. This paper provides real-world risk management techniques and strategies that can be applied to equity trading/investment portfolios in emerging markets. In this work, we divulge a proactive approach for the measurement/management of risk exposure for financial tradin...

  13. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  14. Participatory assessment of soil erosion severity and performance of mitigation measured using stakeholders' workshops in Koga catchment, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakew, Walle; Baartman, Jantiene; Ritsema, Coen

    2016-04-01

    There has been little effort to systematically document the experiences and perceptions of farmers on soil erosion and soil and water conservation (SWC) even though a wealth of SWC knowledge and information exists, and there is a great demand to access it. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) has largely evolved through local traditional practices than being adopted on basis of scientific evidence. This research aimed to document the experiences of farmers on soil erosion and conservation, and to increase awareness and participation of the local community in SWC. Participatory stakeholders' workshops were undertaken at local level focused on experiences and perceptions of farmers. The workshops included group discussion and field monitoring of sheet erosion indicators, profiles of rills and gullies and impacts of SWC strategies. Systematic descriptions of the status of soil erosion, soil fertility and yield were used to assess the performances of SWC strategies. Results show that farmers were aware of the harmful effects of ongoing soil erosion and impacts of mitigation strategies on their farms. Sheet erosion was found to be the most damaging form of erosion while rill damage was critical on cereal cultivated farms on steep slopes. Farmers perceived that the desired impacts of SWC practices were attained in general: runoff and soil loss rates decreased, while soil fertility and production increased. The performance of SWC measures were found to be highly affected by the design quality and management strategies on the farm. Comparatively graded stone-faced soil bunds revealed maximum desired impacts and were liked by farmers whereas all level bunds caused water logging and traditional ditches begun incising and affected production of cereals. Bund maintenance practices were low and also distracted the stability of bunds. This calls for further improvement of design of SWC technologies and their maintenance. Further research should integrate the local knowledge for

  15. The role of PIXE in the AIRUSE project "testing and development of air quality mitigation measures in Southern Europe"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarelli, F.; Chiari, M.; Calzolai, G.; Giannoni, M.; Nava, S.; Udisti, R.; Severi, M.; Querol, X.; Amato, F.; Alves, C.; Eleftheriadis, K.

    2015-11-01

    The European AIRUSE LIFE+ project aims at testing existing and future mitigation measures and developing new strategies for the improvement of air quality in Southern European countries. The project involves public and private institutions of Spain, UK, Portugal, Italy and Greece. PM10 and PM2.5 daily samplings have been scheduled for one year (from January 2013) in four urban sites, Barcelona (Spain), Porto (Portugal), Athens (Greece), and Florence (Italy). The daily data set gives an overall representative picture of the PM composition in these urban sites. The project includes also samplings with hourly resolution for limited periods. Hourly samples give an easier identification of the different aerosol sources due to the capability of tracking rapid changes as the ones occurring in many particulate emissions as well as in atmospheric transport and dilution processes. The role of PIXE technique within the project has been described in this paper. The comparison of data obtained by different techniques (e.g. PIXE, IC and ICP) assured a quality assurance control on the huge quantity of data obtained in the project. PIXE data together with those obtained by other analytical techniques have been used to reconstruct the average aerosol chemical composition and in Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis to determine the aerosol sources and their impact on PM10 and PM2.5 mass. In particular the high sensitivity of PIXE for all the crustal elements (including Si which is not easily detected by ICP) allows the direct determination of the Saharan dust contribution. Finally, the 1-h resolution data, which can be obtained only by PIXE, confirmed and reinforced the identification of the aerosol sources obtained by the daily concentrations.

  16. Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

  17. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  18. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented `Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Richard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the ``Fundamental Root Causes'' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system.

  19. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, RIchard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  20. Managing and Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change: Calling for Evidence-Informed Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Ebi, Kristie; Olsen, Jorn

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Climate change affects many natural and social systems and processes that are essential for life. It disrupts the Earth’s life-support systems that underpin the world’s capacity to supply adequate food and fresh water, and it disturbs the eco-physical buffering against natural disasters. Epidemiologists need to develop and improve research and monitoring programs to better understand the scale and immediacy of the threat of climate change to human health and to act within a much larger and more comprehensive framework. To address one of the greatest environmental issues of our lifetime, the scientific and policy-making communities should work together to formulate evidence-informed public policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to its inevitable impacts in this generation and, more importantly, in future generations to come. PMID:27689449

  1. Advanced measurement approach with loss distribution in operational risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Atilla ÇİFTER; Chambers, Nurgül

    2007-01-01

    According to the last proposal by Basel Committee, commercial banks are allowed to use advanced measurement approach for operational risk. Since basic indicator and standard approach considers operational risk as a percentage of gross profit, these methodologies are not satisfactory as real lost or probability of lost are not taken into consideration. In this article, loss distribution approach is applied with simulated data. 20 nonparametric loss distributions and mixing internal and externa...

  2. Measures in forensic psychiatry : Risk monitoring and structured outcome assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sturidsson, Knut

    2007-01-01

    Background: Violent offenders suffering from a major mental disorder (MMD) are sometimes publicly portrayed as particularly dangerous. In reality however, only a small fraction of those inflicted with a MMD do commit any violent offence. The present thesis focuses on means to monitor risk of violence and to some extent measure the content and outcome of forensic psychiatric care. The overall aim of this thesis was to investigate forensic psychiatric risk assessments from a b...

  3. Calculation of Expected Shortfall for Measuring Risk and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎春宁; 余鹏; 黄养新

    2005-01-01

    Expected shortfall(ES) is a new method to measure market risk. In this paper, an example was presented to illustrate that the ES is coherent but value-at-risk(VaR) is not coherent. Three formulas for calculating the ES based on historical simulation method, normal method and GARCH method were derived. Further, a numerical experiment on optimizing portfolio using ES was provided.

  4. Modelling site-specific N2O emission factors from Austrian agricultural soils for targeted mitigation measures (NitroAustria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amon, Barbara; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kasper, Martina; Foldal, Cecilie; Schiefer, Jasmin; Kitzler, Barbara; Schwarzl, Bettina; Zethner, Gerhard; Anderl, Michael; Sedy, Katrin; Gaugitsch, Helmut; Dersch, Georg; Baumgarten, Andreas; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    community can only profit from NitroAustria, if model developments and results are integrated into the national emission inventory. Trade-offs between different greenhouse gas emissions and other nitrogen losses have to be discussed. The derivation of suitable mitigation options by optimization of common and evaluation of potential management practices for current and future climatic conditions is crucial to minimize threats to the environment while ensuring the long-term productivity and sustainability of agro-ecosystems. From the results gained in NitroAustria we will be able to show potential environmental impacts and propose measures for a policy framework towards climate friendly farming.

  5. Nitrous oxide and nitrate concentration in under-drainage from arable fields subject to diffuse pollution mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hama-Aziz, Zanist; Hiscock, Kevin; Adams, Christopher; Reid, Brian

    2016-04-01

    mitigation measure in an agricultural area where high nitrate losses from fields into groundwater or surface water is excessively occurring.

  6. An Assessment of Nigerian Stakeholders’ the Perception of Environmental Offset as Mitigation Measures and Its’ Implication for Sustainable Industrial Development in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.C. Mmom

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An important tool for sustainable development in any country is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, and an important component of EIA is impact mitigation. In most cases, certain unwanted impacts of development projects are left without mitigation thereby reducing the gains of such developments. Thus, emerging in current literature is the concept of Environmental offset which provides a leeway for residual impacts of development projects. This study therefore assesses the perception and level of application of the environmental offset strategy by EIA Practitioners and other stakeholders in the mitigation of negative environmental impacts of developments in the Niger Delta, Nigeria as that would have significant implication for sustainable development efforts in Nigeria. The study found out that there is negative perception among the host communities about the suitability of offset as mitigation measure. Even though the EIA practitioners considers Environmental offset as a viable option, its adoption has been marred by the misgiving of the local people. This misgiving could be attributed to the long period of neglect and abandonment which has led to abject poverty in the region and loss of confidence in any institutional frameworks. Thus, this study concludes that the drive towards sustainable Development in Nigeria would remain a mirage unless the local people are properly integrated in the scheme of things.

  7. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  8. The use of in-situ deployments to examine the success of water quality mitigation measures on a watercress farm

    OpenAIRE

    Dixon, M J; Shaw, P. J.

    2009-01-01

    Watercress has long been believed to affect macroinvertebrate communities in chalk streams. Harvesting and washing watercress damages plant tissues and releases isothiocyanates which are potential toxicants to Gammarus pulex (L.). This study examined whether impacts on G. pulex of watercress farm factory wash water could be mitigated by treating via recirculation through the watercress beds.

  9. A cost–benefit analysis of mitigation options for optimal management of risks posed by flow-like phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narasimhan, Harikrishna; Ferlisi, Settimio; Cascini, Leonardo;

    2016-01-01

    Decisions associated with life safety risk management of natural hazards can involve significant potential consequences for public safety. Given possible limitations to available societal resources, it is therefore necessary to establish a clear and rational basis for the allocation of resources...... towards risk management. A viable approach for utilising life safety risk assessment in public safety decisions that are aimed at improving the welfare of the public and other stakeholders is described in this paper. This approach is conceptually based on the principles of the Life Quality Index (LQI...... for reducing the risks posed by different rainfall-induced flow-like phenomena—which include hyperconcentrated flows, debris flows and landslides on open slopes—in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (located in the Campania region in southern Italy) is then described. As demonstrated through the case study...

  10. Department of Energy--Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Geothermal Program: Geothermal Risk Mitigation Strategies Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2008-02-15

    An overview of general financial issues for renewable energy investments; geothermal energy investment barriers and risks; and recommendations for incentives and instruments to be considered to stimulate investment in geothermal energy development.

  11. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  12. Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

    2012-10-01

    This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

  13. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be

  14. Measuring Disclosure Risk and Data Utility for Flexible Table Generators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shlomo Natalie

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical agencies are making increased use of the internet to disseminate census tabular outputs through web-based flexible table-generating servers that allow users to define and generate their own tables. The key questions in the development of these servers are: (1 what data should be used to generate the tables, and (2 what statistical disclosure control (SDC method should be applied. To generate flexible tables, the server has to be able to measure the disclosure risk in the final output table, apply the SDC method and then iteratively reassess the disclosure risk. SDC methods may be applied either to the underlying data used to generate the tables and/or to the final output table that is generated from original data. Besides assessing disclosure risk, the server should provide a measure of data utility by comparing the perturbed table to the original table. In this article, we examine aspects of the design and development of a flexible table-generating server for census tables and demonstrate a disclosure risk-data utility analysis for comparing SDC methods. We propose measures for disclosure risk and data utility that are based on information theory.

  15. Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

  16. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/106/rad-year to 6/106/rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  17. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    OpenAIRE

    Jelena S. Cice; Marko D. Andrejić; Nebojša K. Dragović

    2013-01-01

    The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP). -    Promulgation of multi-servic...

  18. Lipid parameters for measuring risk of cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.J. Arsenault; S.M. Boekholdt; J.J.P. Kastelein

    2011-01-01

    Besides measuring blood pressure and glucose levels, assessing the lipid spectrum is the method most commonly used to identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as those who are likely to benefit most from lipid-lowering therapy. Although lowering LDL-cholesterol leve

  19. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, semi-basement houses, the flow of soil air through the walls in contact with soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and under-pressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub slab suction, the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub slab suction and radon well. Typical indoor radon reduction factors for both methods are 70 - 90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub slab suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 4 - 5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20 - 30 metres. Mitigation work

  20. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and underpressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub-slab-suction the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub-slab-suction and radon well. Typical reduction factors for both methods are 70-90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 3-5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20-30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at

  1. Managing the Consequences of Climate Change: Can Green Value Creation Mitigate Risks and Create Opportunities in the Financial Sector?

    OpenAIRE

    Moa, Anne

    2014-01-01

    The current economic system is dependent upon constant growth and consumption to function, but the planetary boundaries are finite (UNEP 2013). The resulting climate change is likely to influence companies’ ability to do business in both positive and negative ways. The financial industry could be heavily impacted by the predicted consequences. This study seeks to identify the risks and opportunities that could arise as a result of climate change, and discuss whether the concept of green ...

  2. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  3. Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goettel, K. A.; Rizzo, A.; Sigrist, D.; Bernard, E. N.

    2011-12-01

    The death total in a major Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunami may be comparable to the Tohoku tsunami - tens of thousands. To date, tsunami risk reduction activities have been almost exclusively hazard mapping and evacuation planning. Reducing deaths in locations where evacuation to high ground is impossible in the short time between ground shaking and arrival of tsunamis requires measures such as vertical evacuation facilities or engineered pathways to safe ground. Yet, very few, if any, such tsunami mitigation projects have been done. In contrast, many tornado safe room and earthquake mitigation projects driven entirely or in largely by life safety have been done with costs in the billions of dollars. The absence of tsunami mitigation measures results from the belief that tsunamis are too infrequent and the costs too high to justify life safety mitigation measures. A simple analysis based on return periods, death rates, and the geographic distribution of high risk areas for these hazards demonstrates that this belief is incorrect: well-engineered tsunami mitigation projects are more cost-effective with higher benefit-cost ratios than almost all tornado or earthquake mitigation projects. Goldfinger's paleoseismic studies of CSZ turbidites indicate return periods for major CSZ tsunamis of about 250-500 years (USGS Prof. Paper 1661-F in press). Tsunami return periods are comparable to those for major earthquakes at a given location in high seismic areas and are much shorter than those for tornados at any location which range from >4,000 to >16,000 years for >EF2 and >EF4 tornadoes, respectively. The average earthquake death rate in the US over the past 100-years is about 1/year, or about 30/year including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The average death rate for tornadoes is about 90/year. For CSZ tsunamis, the estimated average death rate ranges from about 20/year (10,000 every 500 years) to 80/year (20,000 every 250 years). Thus, the long term deaths rates

  4. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  5. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  6. A GAME THEORETIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL BETWEEN PROJECT RISK SET AND MEASURE SET

    OpenAIRE

    LINDU ZHAO; YIPING JIANG

    2009-01-01

    Project risk management, as a subjective and dynamic decision method of avoiding project risk, plays an important role in selecting appropriate control measures (i.e. measure set) to handle multiple emerging risks (i.e. risk set). This paper focuses on the multi-risk control problem under the condition of finite risk management resources. Based on the description of a Multi-HUB network and a collaboration mechanism within project risk management system, a multi-risk control system is formulat...

  7. Yet Another Mammography Measure to Evaluate Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Nielsen, Mads

    Background: Breast density has been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the density is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or included in general breast cancer risk assessment tools such as Wolfe Patterns (Wolfe et al 1997...... propose a novel data driven measures taking not just the density but also the texture and its heterogeneity into account. By use of computerized pattern recognition techniques, the local texture may be scored for disposition of breast cancer development. Objective: Investigate to which degree the local...... of the statistical analysis when their scores were computed. This was always done leaving a case and a control out simultaneously to treat both classes equal. Results: The categorical score significantly separated cancer and control (p=0.001) and also interval and screen cancers (p=0.04). Similar results were...

  8. Composition and sources of PM2.5 around the heating periods of 2013 and 2014 in Beijing: Implications for efficient mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hainan; Chen, Jing; Wen, Jiaojiao; Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Xingang

    2016-01-01

    The diurnal variations of the water soluble organic and inorganic components as well as six selected metals in PM2.5 around the heating periods of 2013 and 2014 in Beijing were analyzed in this study to investigate the contributions of secondary aerosols and primary pollutants to PM2.5 and the effects of domestic heating and mitigation measures. The before-heating sampling period in 2014 (from Nov. 1st to Nov. 15th) was characterized with reinforced short-term mitigation measures for the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting. As a result, the average mass concentrations of PM2.5 and most of the measured species except for Cu, Al, and Ca2+ were greatly reduced during the APEC meeting period. The domestic heating activity alone resulted in a 17.7% increase of PM2.5 in 2013, exerting lesser effects on the increase of PM2.5 than before. Water soluble organic carbon was the most abundant water soluble species in PM2.5, followed by NO3-, SO42-, and NH4+ . According to the PMF model calculation, secondary aerosols, coal combustion, biomass/waste burning, traffic related pollution, long-range transport, and fugitive soil and sand dust were identified as the main sources of PM2.5 in Beijing, among which secondary formation of aerosols was the dominant source of PM2.5 during the non-APEC period while biomass/waste burning dominated during the APEC period. As a timely feedback on the effects of the mitigation measures adopted by the government, the results of this study provide knowledge necessary for a sustainable urban management.

  9. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  10. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  11. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  12. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary - API

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  13. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  14. Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kuo, Way

    2012-01-01

    This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems.  Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c

  15. Option-implied objective measures of market risk

    OpenAIRE

    Leiss, Matthias; Nax, Heinrich H.

    2015-01-01

    Foster and Hart (2009) introduce an objective measure of the riskiness of an asset that implies a bound on how much of one’s wealth is ‘safe’ to invest in the asset while (a.s.) guaranteeing no-bankruptcy in the long run. In this study, we translate the Foster-Hart measure from static and abstract gambles to dynamic and applied finance using nonparametric estimation of risk-neutral densities from S&P 500 call and put option prices covering 2003 to 2013. This exercise results in an option-impl...

  16. Minimising mortality in endangered raptors due to power lines: the importance of spatial aggregation to optimize the application of mitigation measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Guil

    Full Text Available Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos, Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata. Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators.

  17. Efficiency of mitigation measures to reduce particulate air pollution--a case study during the Olympic Summer Games 2008 in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, Nina; Norra, Stefan; Chen, Yizhen; Chai, Fahe; Wang, Shulan

    2012-06-15

    Atmospheric particles were studied before, during, and after the period of the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, China, in August 2008 in order to investigate the efficiency of the mitigation measures implemented by the Chinese Government. Total suspended particles (TSP) and fine particles (PM(2.5) and PM(1)) were collected continuously from October 2007 to February 2009 and were analyzed in detail with regard to mass and element concentrations, water-soluble ions, and black carbon (BC). Mass as well as element concentrations during the Olympic air quality control period were lower than the respective concentrations during the time directly before and after the Olympic Games. The results showed that the applied aerosol source control measures, such as shutting down industries and reducing traffic, had a huge impact on the reduction of aerosol pollution in Beijing. However, the meteorological conditions, especially rainfall, certainly also contributed to the successful reduction of particulate air pollution. Coarse particles were reduced more efficiently than finer particles, which indicates that long-range transport of atmospheric particles is difficult to control and that presumably the established mitigation area was not large enough. The study further showed that elements from predominantly anthropogenic sources, such as S, Cu, As, Cd, and Pb, as well as BC, were reduced more efficiently during the Olympic Games than elements for which geogenic sources are more significant, such as Al, Fe, Rb or Sr. Furthermore, the mentioned anthropogenic element concentrations were reduced more in the finer PM(2.5) samples whereas geogenic ones were reduced stronger in TSP samples including the coarser fraction. Consequently, it can be assumed that the mitigation measures, as intended, were successful in reducing more toxic and health-relevant particles from anthropogenic sources. Firework displays, especially at the Opening Ceremony, could be identified as a special short

  18. The effect of mitigation measures on size distributed mass concentrations of atmospheric particles and black carbon concentrations during the Olympic Summer Games 2008 in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, Nina; Norra, Stefan; Dietze, Volker; Yu, Yang; Fricker, Mathieu; Kaminski, Uwe; Chen, Yuan; Cen, Kuang

    2011-12-15

    The period of the 2008 Olympic Summer Games in Beijing can be considered as a unique opportunity to study the influences of emission reduction measures on air quality improvement. Within this study atmospheric particles of different size classes (2.5 to 80 μm) were investigated before, during, and after the Olympic Games period in order to observe and assess the success of short-term measures to mitigate extreme urban aerosol pollution and also to investigate, which particle size classes were reduced most effectively. Furthermore, black carbon (BC) concentrations in fine particles (PM(2.5)) during the source control period were compared to those of the previous years in order to investigate the decrease of combustion-derived aerosols. It is shown that besides the implemented mitigation measures precipitation decisively contributed to a considerable decrease of particulate air pollution in Beijing compared to the respective concentrations during the time directly before and after the Olympic Games, and also compared to average August concentrations during the previous years and the following year 2009. Particles of the fine fraction of the coarse mode (2.5 to 5 μm), which have a residence time in the order of several days and which, therefore, are typically transported over long distances from outside of Beijing, were less efficiently reduced than coarser particles. This indicates that long-range transport of atmospheric particles is difficult to control and that presumably the established mitigation area was not large enough to also reduce the fine fraction of the coarse mode more efficiently. Furthermore, the study showed that coarse geogenic particles, which originated to a high percentage from construction sites and resuspension processes due to traffic seemed to be reduced most efficiently during the Olympic Games period. PMID:22035559

  19. The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

  20. A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Crowley, H.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Colombi, M.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Borzi, B.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Faravelli, M.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Onida, M.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Lopez, M.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Polli, D.; EUCENTRE, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy; Meroni, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia

    2008-01-01

    National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals f...