WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk mitigation measures

  1. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  2. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  3. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  4. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  5. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, de J.L.; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk asses

  6. Zoning and compartmentalisation as risk mitigation measures: an example from poultry production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratananakorn, L; Wilson, D

    2011-04-01

    This paper discusses the application of compartmentalisation in the Thai commercial poultry industry. The concept was adopted to address Thailand's inability to export fresh poultry meat because of endemic avian influenza. Owing to the nature of compartmentalisation, implementation required a strong partnership between government and the private sector (the Thai poultry exporters). The paper describes the processes implemented to ensure that appropriate risk mitigation measures were in place and to guarantee the continued biosecurity of the compartments. Other Members of the World Organisation for Animal Health may be able to adapt the compartment system used in Thailand to their own similar situations and the formal international recognition of such systems would be beneficial.

  7. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  8. Risk mitigation in spaceborne lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Yngve; Reinhold, Elmar; Wernham, Denny; Endemann, Martin; Jost, Michael; Armandillo, Errico; Riede, Wolfgang; Schröder, Helmut; Allenspacher, Paul

    2006-04-01

    Spaceborne lidars carry much promise for Earth observation and interplanetary missions to measure atmospheric parameters (wind velocity, optical extinction or species concentrations) and planet topologies. As the first European lidar mission, the European Space Agency is developing a Doppler wind lidar, ALADIN, to be launched on board ADM-Aeolus in 2008. ALADIN is a pulsed laser, emitting about 120 mJ of pulse energy in the UV. The mission duration is envisaged to be three years, which corresponds to several billion emitted pulses, thus imposing very stringent criteria on the longevity of the system. Laser-induced damage is one of the most significant issues here, in particular since laser-induced damage in space vacuum is still poorly understood. The European Space Agency has therefore established a test campaign to measure the power handling of all the instrument optics with laboratories in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France participating. Measurements are conducted at three wavelengths (1064nm, 532nm and 355nm) and with the introduction of several contaminants. The presentation covers laser-induced damage risk mitigation, the ESA test campaign and some test results.

  9. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  10. Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

    1993-01-01

    Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

  11. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored

  12. Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

    2016-01-01

    Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

  13. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

  14. A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a

  15. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective...

  16. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  17. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmelo Di Mauro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication

  18. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  19. Mitigation measures and programs in Hungary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molnar, S. [Systemexpert Consulting Ltd., Budapest (Hungary)

    1996-12-31

    In Hungary there are four main governmental programs, which may result in a decrease of emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs): (1) National program of energy efficiency improvement and energy conservation, (2) Afforestation program, (3) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission reduction program, and (4) Program to reduce the use of ozone depleting substances. These ambitious programs were launched in the beginning of the 90`s, but they have been slowed down because of budgetary problems. The comprehensive action plan for mitigation of GHG emissions should be based on these ongoing programs. These programs should be expanded by further measures and programs in order to fulfill the requirements of the FCCC. In the next sections the results and prospects of the above mentioned programs will be summarized. Also the results of the mitigation study supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program are included.

  20. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  1. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  2. Kinematic analysis for the implementation of landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    The present work is finalised at the implementation of a landslide risk mitigation master plan of the ancient citadel of Machu Picchu. After the warning launched in March 2001, by the scientific community on potential collapse of the citadel from a near-disastrous landslide event different studies have been promoted to reconstruct landslide activity and suggest landslide risk mitigation measures for the protection and conservation of Machu Picchu cultural heritage. A site-scale analysis has been implemented following the application and integration of geomechanical classifications, ambient noise measurements and structural and kinematical analysis. The geology of the area is characterized by granitoid bodies that had been emplaced in the axial zones of the main rift system that are now exposed at the highest altitudes, together with country rocks (Precambrian and Lower Paleozoic metamorphics) originally constituting the rift ‘roots'. The bedrock of the Inca citadel of Machu Picchu is mainly composed by granite and subordinately granodiorite. This is mainly located in the lower part of the slopes. Superficially, the granite is jointed in blocks with variable dimensions, promoted by local structural setting. Single blocks vary from 10-1 to about 200 m3. Soil cover, widely outcropping in the area, is mainly composed by individual blocks and subordinately by coarse materials originated by chemical and physical weathering of minerals. Regional tectonic uplift and structural setting rule the general morphological features of the area and as a consequence, landslide type and evolution. Rock falls, rock slides, debris flows and debris slides are the main landslide typologies affecting the citadel slopes. In the last mission in May 2009, elastic and deformation rock parameters have been collected using a passive seismic innovative technique based on natural microtremor measurements and geostructural scan lines elaboration. A landslide zoning of the citadel has been

  3. A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

    2008-01-01

    High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

  4. MITIGATING INNOVATION RISKS CONCERNING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY INSTRUMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available As protection of innovation is possible using a variety of intellectual property instruments, the current paper aims at emphasizing the vulnerabilities of these instruments in order to facilitate the right choice in terms of protection, exploitation and dissemination of innovation. Based on a review of the intellectual property instruments and their related risk factors, the study identifies and formulates specific proactive strategies which arise from the fact that an instrument alone does not allow for effective protection, exploitation and dissemination and oftentimes the owners of innovation should combine traditional and alternative instruments. Therefore, the results of this analysis represent a helpful tool for managers in the decisional process.

  5. Personality, risk cognitions and motivation related to demand of risk mitigation in transport among Norwegians

    OpenAIRE

    Nordfjærn, Trond; Rundmo, Torbjørn

    2014-01-01

    There is insufficient knowledge regarding the role of personality traits, transport-related risk cognitions and safety motivation for demand for transport risk mitigation. The aim of this study is to test a model aimed to predict public demand for transport risk mitigation by these psychological risk constructs. A mailed self-completion questionnaire survey was conducted in a random sample of the Norwegian population aged 18–65 years obtained from the Norwegian population registry (n...

  6. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  7. Evaluating the effectiveness of road mitigation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, van der E.A.; Ree, van R.; Fahrig, L.; Houlahan, J.E.; Jaeger, J.A.G.; Klar, N.; Francisco Madriñan, L.; Olson, L.

    2013-01-01

    The last 20 years have seen a dramatic increase in efforts to mitigate the negative effects of roads and traffic on wildlife, including fencing to prevent wildlife-vehicle collisions and wildlife crossing structures to facilitate landscape connectivity. While not necessarily explicitly articulated,

  8. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  9. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Smith, P. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Porse, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  10. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  11. Social risk mitigation project: to mitigate proverty or to protect rich from poor?

    OpenAIRE

    ÇULHA ZABCI, Filiz

    2003-01-01

    Social Risk Mitigation Project, which was put into effect in Turkey alter the February 2001economic crisis is analyzed in this paper. This project was introduced in the aftermath of the crisis in a widespread poverty and unemployment environment and it is in accordance with the poverty a1leviationprogram which is developed in the World Bank\\\\'s 2000/2001 World Development Report. It is quite interesting that there was a prevalent discussion on the risk of a \\\\"socialturmiol\\\\" in Turkey just ...

  12. To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring

  13. Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.

    2003-04-01

    In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

  14. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  15. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  16. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency...... perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate...... that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given...

  17. Environmental Satellites: Planning Required to Mitigate Near-Term Risks and Ensure Long-Term Continuity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-29

    work together. For example, climate measurements have allowed scientists to better understand the effect of deforestation on how the earth absorbs...development activities. Until the transition risks are effectively mitigated, and unless components are able to continue scheduled development, it...observations such as greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide), aerosol and dust particles, and moisture concentration. When these data are

  18. Can Marriage Education Mitigate the Risks Associated with Premarital Cohabitation?

    OpenAIRE

    Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.; Allen, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., “pre-commitment cohabitation”) for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between pre-commitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before ...

  19. Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... optimization methods focus on mitigation of geological risks related to the long-term net present value (NPV). A major drawback of such methods is that the time-dependent and exceedingly growing uncertainty of oil prices implies that long-term predictions become highly unreliable. Conventional methods...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...

  20. Mitigating the Risk of Transfusion-Transmitted Dengue in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Rooks

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dengue viruses (DENV 1–4 are a risk to transfusion safety, with several transfusion-transmitted (TT cases reported globally. DENV 1–4 are endemic in over 100 countries, with seasonal outbreaks occurring in northeastern Australia. To mitigate TT-DENV risk in Australia, fresh blood components are not manufactured from donors returning from any area (domestic/overseas with known dengue transmission. Alternatively, TT-DENV risk may be mitigated using an appropriate blood donor screening assay. We aimed to determine the rate of dengue infection in donors during dengue outbreaks in Australia. Plasma samples were collected from blood donors during local dengue outbreaks. All samples were tested for the presence of DENV RNA and selected samples were tested for DENV antigen (nonstructural protein 1, NS1 with two assays. No donors residing in high risk areas had detectable levels of DENV RNA or NS1 and no cases of DENV viremia were detected in blood donors residing in areas of Australia experiencing DENV outbreaks. Definitive conclusions could not be drawn from this study; however, the lack of detection of DENV RNA or antigen in donations suggests that the current risk of TT-DENV is low and maintaining the fresh component restriction for “at-risk” donors is appropriate.

  1. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  2. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra

    2015-08-15

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond.

  3. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  4. The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

  5. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows...... that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

  6. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiorucci

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

  7. Orbiting Space Debris: Dangers, Measurement and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    sure how many undetectable particles the fragmentation of a satellite creates. Actual ground-based tesis have been conducted in an attempt to...conducted by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory lo measure the presence of 0.2 lo 0.5 cm and 0.5 to 2 cm sized debris. The Areclbo radar in Puerto Rico

  8. Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

  9. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  10. Systemic risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  11. Global Warming. Risk Perception and Risk-Mitigating Behavior in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohe, M.; Ikeda, S. [School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University (Japan)

    2005-10-15

    Global warming is a major concern for the Japanese public. However, because the influence of global environmental risks, particularly global warming, is long-term and widespread, it seems difficult for the public to recognize it as a familiar and important problem that necessitates firm action. This study attempts to determine the causal structure promoting risk-mitigating behavior with regard to global warming, using Covariance Structure Analysis (CSA) with data from a survey of a subset of the Japanese population. There are four main stages in the process of decision-making for personal actions; concerns and values, risk perception, mitigating behavior intention, and personal actions. Support for environmental policies has three stages: concerns and values, risk perceptions, and mitigating behavior intentions. Our results suggest that improved access to information concerning the risks associated with global warming in particular, and environmental issues in general, will be sufficient to effectively accelerate the public's participation in policy decisions, by translating their intentions for risk-mitigating into practical actions. Increased knowledge through improved access to information should improve the interaction between the public and environmental policy-makers in Japan.

  12. Mitigating the risk of food handling in the home-delivered meal program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namkung, Young; Ismail, Joseph A; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C

    2007-02-01

    The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the length of time between packing and delivery of home-delivered meals, and the extent of foodborne illness risk to the elderly. Procedures to mitigate that risk were also evaluated. Researchers surveyed 95 drivers from home-delivered meal preparation sites in six states across the United States to determine the average length of time that passed during packing, loading, leaving, and delivery. The efficiency of various risk mitigation methods were evaluated and used to adjust the actual delivery time. Total average delivery time from packing to last delivery was 1.92 hours. This study suggests that the risk associated with the actual 1.92 hours of total delivery time could be mitigated to represent approximately 1.55 hours of effective time with proper packing and holding conditions. This methodology proposes a single measure for evaluating the effectiveness of various handling procedures associated with distributing home-delivered meals, which can be utilized to evaluate overall risk when combined with in-house preparation and client-handling behaviors.

  13. A numerical technique to design blast noise mitigation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, F. van den; Eerden, F.J.M. van der

    2007-01-01

    Large weapons, such as armor, artillery or demolitions, create a high-energy blast wave. It has a low frequency content, typically between 15 and 125 Hz, and can propagate over large distances. As a result it is a relative important cause for annoyance. Mitigation measures need to be close to the so

  14. GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tichy, M. [Energy Efficiency Center, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents a short overview of main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion to the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.

  15. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  16. QUALITY BASED CREDIT RISK MITIGATION FOR BANK PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT: EMPIRIC STUDY IN AN INDONESIAN BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nini Avieni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing controversy over whether risk mitigation inherently enhances business performance. The aim of this paper is to settle the controversy, and provide insights roles of risk mitigation on corporate strategy. Author examined implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system at one of Indonesia banks.  Based on responses from 112 credit analysts and database of business units performance indicators, this research showed a relationship between the implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system and unit bank's performance. Quality Based Credit Risk Mitigation which is credit risk mitigation using Lean Six Sigma system will enhance business units’ performance through improvement in credit quality and credit process efficiency.

  17. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  18. Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

    1996-12-31

    Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

  19. Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

  20. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  1. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  2. Potential of lactic acid bacteria in aflatoxin risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlberg, Sara H; Joutsjoki, Vesa; Korhonen, Hannu J

    2015-08-17

    Aflatoxins (AF) are ubiquitous mycotoxins contaminating food and feed. Consumption of contaminated food and feed can cause a severe health risk to humans and animals. A novel biological method could reduce the health risks of aflatoxins through inhibiting mold growth and binding aflatoxins. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are commonly used in fermented food production. LAB are known to inhibit mold growth and, to some extent, to bind aflatoxins in different matrices. Reduced mold growth and aflatoxin production may be caused by competition for nutrients between bacterial cells and fungi. Most likely, binding of aflatoxins depends on environmental conditions and is strain-specific. Killed bacteria cells possess consistently better binding abilities for aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) than viable cells. Lactobacilli especially are relatively well studied and provide noticeable possibilities in binding of aflatoxin B1 and M1 in food. It seems that binding is reversible and that bound aflatoxins are released later on (Haskard et al., 2001; Peltonen et al., 2001). This literature review suggests that novel biological methods, such as lactic acid bacteria, show potential in mitigating toxic effects of aflatoxins in food and feed.

  3. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk for ...

  4. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...

  5. Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

    2009-04-01

    Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although

  6. Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

    2016-04-01

    "Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

  7. Decision-Support System for Mitigating Long-Term Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, H. R.; van Delden, H.; Newman, J. P.; Riddell, G. A.; Zecchin, A. C.; Dandy, G. C.; Newland, C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Long-term flood risk in urban areas is expected to increase as a result of a number of factors, such as an increase in the severity of flood events due to the impact of climate change and the exposure of a larger number of people to flooding as a result of population growth. In order to facilitate the development of long-term flood mitigation plans, a framework for a decision-support system (DSS) is presented in this paper. The framework consists of an integrated model (see Figure) consisting of dynamic, spatially distributed land-use and flood inundation models. It also enables the impact of various flood mitigation strategies to be assessed, such as spatial planning, land management, structural measures (e.g. levees, changes in building codes), and community education. The framework considers a number of external drivers that are represented in the form of long-term planning scenarios. These include the impact of climate drivers on the extent of flooding via the flood inundation model and the impact of population and economic drivers on the size and distribution of the population via the land use allocation model. Using this framework, a DSS is being developed and applied to the Greater Adelaide region of South Australia. This DSS includes an intuitive, user-friendly interface for enabling different planning scenarios and mitigation portfolios to be selected, as well as temporal changes in flood risk maps under each of these scenarios to be observed. Changes in flood risk maps are investigated over a 30-year period with climate drivers represented by different representative concentration pathways, population drivers represented by different population projections and economic drivers represented by different employment rates. The impact of different combinations of mitigation measures is also investigated. The results indicate that climate, population and economic drivers have a significant impact on the temporal evolution of flood risk for the case study area

  8. Risk Mitigation Testing with the BepiColombo MPO SADA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemann, J.; Heinrich, B.; Skulicz, A.; Madsen, M.; Weisenstein, W.; Modugno, F.; Althaus, F.; Panhofer, T.; Osterseher, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Solar Array (SA) Drive Assembly (SADA) for the BepiColombo mission is being developed and qualified at RUAG Space Zürich (RSSZ). The system is consisting of the Solar Array Drive Mechanism (SADM) and the Solar Array Drive Electronics (SADE) which is subcontracted to RUAG Space Austria (RSA).This paper deals with the risk mitigation activities and the lesson learnt from this development. In specific following topics substantiated by bread board (BB) test results will be addressed in detail:Slipring Bread Board Test: Verification of lifetime and electrical performance of carbon brush technology Potentiometer BB Tests: Focus on lifetime verification (> 650000 revolution) and accuracy requirement SADM EM BB Test: Subcomponent (front-bearing and gearbox) characterization; complete test campaign equivalent to QM test.EM SADM/ SADE Combined Test: Verification of combined performance (accuracy, torque margin) and micro-vibration testing of SADA systemSADE Bread Board Test: Parameter optimization; Test campaign equivalent to QM testThe main improvements identified in frame of BB testing and already implemented in the SADM EM/QM and SADE EQM are:• Improved preload device for gearbox• Improved motor ball-bearing assembly• Position sensor improvements• Calibration process for potentiometer• SADE motor controller optimization toachieve required running smoothness• Overall improvement of test equipment.

  9. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered.

  10. Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Asgary

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses’ preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today’s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.

  11. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  12. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  13. CFD analysis of dense gas dispersion in indoor environment for risk assessment and risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, M; Jayanti, S; Swaminathan, T

    2012-03-30

    Environmental risks are inherent in the operation of any complex chemical process industry. The indoor release of hazardous chemicals that are denser than air is a topic of special concern, since dense clouds tend to persist at ground level or human breath level which leads to a magnification of their harmful potential. In the present work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based model for indoor risk assessment considering accidental release of a sustained, small, undetected leak of a dense toxic gas (chlorine) in an industrial indoor environment. Results from simulations show that the denser chlorine gas spreads like a liquid and flows all along the floor. At the same time, its concentration at a point away from the ground level increases slowly, thus showing that both stratification and dilution effects are present as the dense gas spreads. The implications of this spreading pattern from a risk assessment and risk mitigation point of view are discussed.

  14. Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.

    1996-12-31

    In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  16. Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality

    CERN Document Server

    Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

    2007-01-01

    Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

  17. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  18. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Fournier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

  19. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  20. Angular Impact Mitigation system for bicycle helmets to reduce head acceleration and risk of traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kirk; Dau, Nathan; Feist, Florian; Deck, Caroline; Willinger, Rémy; Madey, Steven M; Bottlang, Michael

    2013-10-01

    Angular acceleration of the head is a known cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI), but contemporary bicycle helmets lack dedicated mechanisms to mitigate angular acceleration. A novel Angular Impact Mitigation (AIM) system for bicycle helmets has been developed that employs an elastically suspended aluminum honeycomb liner to absorb linear acceleration in normal impacts as well as angular acceleration in oblique impacts. This study tested bicycle helmets with and without AIM technology to comparatively assess impact mitigation. Normal impact tests were performed to measure linear head acceleration. Oblique impact tests were performed to measure angular head acceleration and neck loading. Furthermore, acceleration histories of oblique impacts were analyzed in a computational head model to predict the resulting risk of TBI in the form of concussion and diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Compared to standard helmets, AIM helmets resulted in a 14% reduction in peak linear acceleration (pbicycle helmet, and may enhance prevention of bicycle-related TBI. Further research is required.

  1. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

    2015-03-01

    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented.

  2. Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alix, A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

  3. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M.W. Reddy

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be used to improve water risk assessments at a basin scale and we apply the methodology to the industrialized Brazos River Basin (85% municipal and industrial withdrawals and consider implications for The Dow Chemical Company׳s Freeport Operations in Texas, US. Brazos water right holders pay only operating and maintenance costs for water during normal periods; however, when shortages occur, leasing stored water or reducing production may be the only mitigation option in the short-run. Modeling of water shortages and the theoretical cost of leasing water under nine combined scenarios of demand growth and climate change suggests that water lease prices to industry could increase by 9–13X. At best, a more developed water rights and storage lease market could result in lower lease prices (2–3X; however, given that transactions would be limited it is more likely that prices would still increase by 4–13X. These results suggest that markets are unlikely to be a robust solution for the Brazos because, in contrast to other watersheds in the Western US, there is little reliable water to trade from low value users (agricultural to high value users (industry and municipalities. Looking at demand trends across the contiguous US as an indicator of water risk, 2% of watersheds have municipal and industrial demands that outstrip total surface and ground water supplies and in these watersheds industry has historically paid higher lease prices for water. This study

  4. Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

  5. SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT AND ITS MITIGATION IN A FOOD INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Diabat, Ali; Kannan, Prof. Govindan; Panikar, Vinay

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The food supply chain is the domain in this work which suffers a lot of uncertainty in its functioning. The paper discusses the various research works in the area of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The main objective of the proposed work is to create a model which analyzes the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) tool. The types of risks are clustered in five categories and the risk mitigation is discuss...

  6. Best practices for mitigating soiling risk on PV power plants

    KAUST Repository

    AlDowsari, A.

    2015-09-24

    Solar power generates proven, predictable and economical energy and new innovations have made solar PV power plants easy to deploy, integrate and maintain. Areas with large solar energy potential are among the dustiest in the world. At first glance, solar would be a natural fit in many of these environments but humidity, airborne dust, and wind of these regions often bring high soiling rates that can accumulate to reduce performance by up to 10% per month on average, where soiling can be a major loss factor that affects the energy yield for PV plants especially in humid and dusty climates. Therefore, to achieve the desired performance ratio and obtain stable generation, mitigation solutions are proposed to overcome dust issues that affect the performance of PV plants. This makes PV module cleaning a key component for long-term plant performance and sustainable profitability. In this paper, a review of the mechanisms and mitigation solutions to overcome soiling on solar installations using real-world testing and verification is investigated with emphasis on dry type cleaning methods. © 2014 IEEE.

  7. Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation Techniques in Microfinance Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Elena Fuior; Veronica Mîrzac

    2008-01-01

    Many borrowing microfinance institutions (MFIs) are not adequately managing their exposure to foreign exchange rate risk. The microfinance industry has increased its awareness and understanding of foreign exchange risk, however, there has not been any significant actions taken at the industry level. The best solution for an MFI is to avoid foreign exchange risk altogether and fund itself in local currency. There a number of strategies to accomplish this: Borrow from your local bank; Negotiate...

  8. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does risk. Urban expansion and associated land use dynamics are recognised as one of the main causes of increased flood risk in Europe. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment o...

  9. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  10. Involving end users to mitigate risk in IS development projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amrit, C.; Hillegersberg, van J.; Diest, van B.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the authors aim to gain insight into the relationship between user participation modes and project risk factors, and then they constructed a model that can be used to determine how user participation can be successfully applied in ISD projects with a given set of risk factors. The auth

  11. Risk and return of project-based climate change mitigation: a portfolio approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurikka, H. [Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). Laboratory for Energy Economics and Power Plant Engineering; Springer, U. [ECOPLAN, Bern (Switzerland)

    2003-10-01

    We present a framework for evaluating the risks of investments in climate change mitigation projects to generate emission credits. Risk factors that influence the quantity of emission credits are identified for six project types. Since not all project types are affected by the same factors, diversification is a viable risk reduction strategy. We propose a methodology for quantifying risk and return of such investments, discuss data requirements, and illustrate it using a sample of voluntary projects. In our sample, the returns of an optimally diversified low-risk portfolio are up to 10 times higher than those of single projects, holding risk exposure constant. (author)

  12. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  13. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  14. Air Force is Developing Risk-Mitigation Strategies to Manage Potential Loss of the RD-180 Engine (REDACTED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-05

    Mitigation Study; however, they developed risk -mitigation strategies to manage the potential loss of the RD-180 engine. Therefore, we are not making...Force is Developing Risk -Mitigation Strategies to Manage Potential Loss of the RD-180 Engine (Report No. DODIG-2015-086) We are providing the enclosed...for liquid oxygenihydrocarbon-fueled rocket engine technology risk reduction. Partially ~) SAF/AQ slated il was premature to choose aspecific engine

  15. Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

    2016-10-01

    Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

  16. 30 CFR 250.223 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What mitigation measures information must... INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) § 250.223 What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?...

  17. 30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What mitigation measures information must... Information Contents of Development and Production Plans (dpp) and Development Operations Coordination Documents (docd) § 250.254 What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? (a) If...

  18. Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.

    2012-12-01

    As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

  19. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  20. Spatial and temporal spread of flood mitigation measures implemented by private households along the Rhine and their effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P.; Kreibich, H.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2012-04-01

    Floods in Europe caused substantial economic damage in recent decades. In the future, flood risk is projected to increase in many places due to the effects of climate change and on-going socio-economic development in flood-prone areas. To reduce the economic impact of current and future floods, damage mitigation measures implemented by private households are increasingly considered as an important component of integrated flood risk management approaches. However, knowledge about the temporal and spatial spread of flood mitigation measures such as water barriers or adapted building use are often lacking. Moreover, estimates of the effectiveness of these measures are still scarce. To gain further insights into these aspects, we will present empirical data from a computer-aided telephone survey among 752 private households along the German part of the River Rhine. It will be discussed to what extent various types of flood mitigation measures have been implemented by private households in flood-prone areas over time. Currently, we find that several measures, e.g. flood-adapted building use are regularly employed by the population at risk (34 per cent). We will examine to what extent the deployment of these measures effectively contributes to damage reduction.

  1. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

  2. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

  3. Mitigating the Risk of Environmental Hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-28

    wildfires.9 Infectious hazards in Mexico pose an intermediate risk of disease and include food or waterborne illness, hepatitis, dengue fever, Valley Fever...Mexican history occurred in the mid-1980s when a smuggled, unregistered radiotherapy machine containing Cobalt-60 was junked and unknowingly reprocessed...which generated toxic smoke that drifted over the base. About 18,000 adults and 8,000 children were potentially exposed.66 Bosnia: In 1996, the army

  4. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support

  5. To Risk or Not to Risk: Anxiety and the Calibration between Risk Perception and Danger Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

  6. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the

  7. 76 FR 14413 - Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential Procoagulant Activity in Immune Globulin...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-16

    ...) pathophysiology of arterial and venous thrombosis in this context; (3) research to identify specific procoagulant...) the role of activated Coagulation Factor XIa in IGIV-associated thrombosis; (6) test methods for... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential...

  8. Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments

    OpenAIRE

    Matsukawa, Tomoko; Habeck, Odo

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments is to provide a concise yet comprehensive guide as well as reference information for practitioners of infrastructure financing, including private sector financiers and developing country officials. The work is also intended as a reference for institutions offering (or ...

  9. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a speci......This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices...... for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like...... [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management...

  10. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

  11. Applications of nuclear safety probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear security for optimized risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, S.K.; Harvey, S.B. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Critical infrastructure assets such as nuclear power generating stations are potential targets for malevolent acts. Probabilistic methodologies can be applied to evaluate the real-time security risk based upon intelligence and threat levels. By employing this approach, the application of security forces and other protective measures can be optimized. Existing probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) methodologies and tools employed. in the nuclear industry can be adapted to security applications for this purpose. Existing PSA models can also be adapted and enhanced to consider total plant risk, due to nuclear safety risks as well as security risks. By creating a Probabilistic Security Model (PSM), safety and security practitioners can maximize the safety and security of the plant while minimizing the significant costs associated with security upgrades and security forces. (author)

  12. CAESAR: An Initiative of Public Service for Collision Risks Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, Francois; Moury, Monique; Beaumet, Gregory

    2013-09-01

    This paper starts by describing the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using CSM data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2-step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for Middle Man role.After describing the Middle Man concept, it introduces the French response CAESAR and the need for collaborative work environment which is implied by Middle Man concept. It includes a description of the environment put in place for CAESAR (secure website and dedicated tools), the content of the service, and the condition for the distribution of the CNES software JAC and the advantages for subscribers.

  13. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  14. Mitigation of the hydrogen risk in fusion reactors; Mitigation du risque hydrogene dans les reacteurs de fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruejouls, C.; Robin, J.C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. d' Etudes des Reacteurs; Arnould, F.; Bachellerie, E. [Technicatome DI SEPS, 13 - Aix en Provence (France); Latge, C. [CEA Cadarache, Dept. d' Etudes des Dechets DED, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Laurent, A. [Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine, Lab. des Sciences du Genie Chimique, 54 - Nancy (France)

    2001-07-01

    The rupture of the first wall and the intrusion of water vapor inside the torus, is one of the major accident that can occur in a thermonuclear fusion reactor. In this situation, water oxidizes the beryllium of the wall and the reaction produces hydrogen with a strong risk of explosion inside the reactor. In order to mitigate this risk, a process based on the reduction of metal oxides (MnO{sub 2}, Ag{sub 2}O) has been developed. The aim of this study is the determination of the kinetics of this reduction reaction. A mixture of both oxides has been deposited on the surface of porous balls for an experiment on fixed beds. The modeling of the phenomenon is based on the equations used in heterogenous catalysis and the experimental determination of the kinetics of the reaction is performed with the CIGNE test-facility. The velocity of the reduction reaction is deduced from the remaining amount of hydrogen in the test-gas (N{sub 2} with 1 to 2% of H{sub 2}) after it has been flowed on the oxides coated balls of the fixed bed. (J.S.)

  15. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  16. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  17. Nanopesticides and nanofertilizers: emerging contaminants or opportunities for risk mitigation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie eKah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called nanopesticides and nanofertilizers. In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices.This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  18. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called “nanopesticides” and “nanofertilizers.” In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals. PMID:26636068

  19. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called "nanopesticides" and "nanofertilizers." In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  20. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on Flood Damage Prevention in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hee Son

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of flood damages and the effects of structural and non-structural flood damage mitigation measures in Korea. First, a theoretical discussion of the structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages was used to select the variables and devise the hypotheses. An analysis was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA time series methodology, Korean socioeconomic data, and damage characteristics of major flood events. The effects of flood damage mitigation measures on the extent of flood damages were assessed using an intervention time series model. The major findings were that the intervention effects of structural and non-structural measures were statistically significant from 1958 to 2013 (a period of 55 years and that while the former were ineffective at mitigating flood damages, the latter were successful in doing so. Based on the above findings, policy suggestions for future flood damage mitigation measures in Korea were offered. For structural measures, the government should manage its existing facilities, recover ecosystems of damaged rivers, and devise mitigation measures for urban areas. For non-structural measures, the government should enhance its flood forecasting capacity, revise laws related to flood control and prevention, and update and rationalize land-use plans.

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-01-01

    Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

  2. Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Nagar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

  3. Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Kinnebrock, Silja; Shephard, Neil

    We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability...

  4. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

  5. Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions.

  6. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  7. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trowsdale, R. [EPCOR Power Development Corp. (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance.

  8. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Chun [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu (China); Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); Jia, Hui-Hui [State High-Tech Industrial Innovation Center, Shenzhen 518057, Guangdong (China); Wang, Jun-Jian, E-mail: junjian.wang@utoronto.ca [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

  9. Libration Point Orbit Utilization for Tactical Advantage in Communications, Surveillance, and Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-27

    Libration Point Orbit Utilization for Tactical Advantage in Communications, Surveillance, and Risk Mitigation Final Report The views, opinions and...in peer-reviewed journals: Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Libration Point Orbit Utilization for Tactical...2013 Received Paper 4.00 Kathryn Davis, George Born, Eric Butcher. Transfers to Earth–Moon L3 halo orbits , Acta Astronautica, (07 2013): 116. doi

  10. Cost-effective alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in drinking water and enhancing ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, B. A.; Kandulu, J. M.

    2009-08-01

    Under the multibarrier paradigm, water quality management barriers that mitigate risk to consumers are required at multiple points from the catchment to the tap. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in the Myponga water supply catchment, South Australia. A broad range of costs and benefits are identified and valued, including setup, operation and maintenance, and opportunity costs, and benefits for ecosystem services including water quality, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and farm production services. The results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of investment in water quality management can be substantially enhanced by considering the costs of management and the benefits for ecosystem services, in addition to Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness of investment in management alternatives is dependent upon the desired level of Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness by both the catchment and treatment barriers. The combination of a spatially targeted 25% restriction in water course access of nondairy cattle and treatment by enhanced coagulation provides the most (net) cost-effective Cryptosporidium risk mitigation strategy. This combination may achieve 0.614 log removal at a net cost of A0.7 million and (net) cost-effectiveness of A1.14 million per log removal. Additional risk mitigation can be achieved through the addition of ultraviolet irradiation treatment, higher levels of water course access restriction for cattle, and the adoption of dung beetles in the catchment. Economic valuation of a range of costs and benefits of management priorities can support cost-effective water quality management investment decisions and inform elements of policy design such as cost-sharing arrangements and spatial targeting.

  11. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety: Two Cognitive Pathways to Task Avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Ilona M; Dunlop, Patrick D; Skinner, Timothy C; Morrison, David L

    2016-02-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single study to date has examined the influence of these traits and processes together. Examining them simultaneously is necessary to gain an integrated understanding of their relationship with risk-mitigating behaviors. We therefore examined these traits and mediators in relation to wildfire preparedness in a two-wave field study among residents of wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia (total N = 223). Structural equation modeling results showed that indecisiveness uniquely predicted preparedness, with higher indecisiveness predicting lower preparedness. This relationship was fully mediated by perceived control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction. This shows how the lack of performing risk-mitigating behaviors can result from distinct cognitive processes that are linked to distinct personality traits. It also highlights how simultaneous examination of multiple pathways to behavior creates a fuller understanding of its antecedents.

  12. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  13. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: what motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  14. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  15. Recent advances in measurement and dietary mitigation of enteric methane emissions in ruminants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 emission, which is mainly produced during normal fermentation of feeds by the rumen microorganisms, represents a major contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Several enteric CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored recently. A number of new techniques have also been developed and existing techniques have been improved in order to evaluate CH4 mitigation technologies and prepare an inventory of GHG emissions precisely. The aim of this review is to discuss different CH4 measuring and mitigation technologies, which have been recently developed. Respiration chamber technique is still considered as a gold standard technique due to its greater precision and reproducibility in CH4 measurements. With the adoption of recent recommendations for improving the technique, the SF6 method can be used with a high level of precision similar to the chamber technique. Short-term measurement techniques of CH4 measurements generally invite considerable within- and between animal variations. Among the short-term measuring techniques, Greenfeed and methane hood systems are likely more suitable for evaluation of CH4 mitigation studies, if measurements could be obtained at different times of the day relative to the diurnal cycle of the CH4 production. Carbon dioxide and CH4 ratio, sniffer and other short-term breath analysis techniques are more suitable for on farm screening of large number of animals to generate the data of low CH4 producing animals for genetic selection purposes. Different indirect measuring techniques are also investigated in recent years. Several new dietary CH4 mitigation technologies have been explored, but only a few of them are practical and cost-effective. Future research should be directed towards both the medium- and long-term mitigation strategies, which could be utilized on farms to accomplish substantial reductions of CH4 emissions and to profitably reduce carbon footprint of livestock production systems. This

  16. Mitigating cascades in sandpile models: an immunization strategy for systemic risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scala, Antonio; Zlatić, Vinko; Caldarelli, Guido; D'Agostino, Gregorio

    2016-10-01

    We use a simple model of distress propagation (the sandpile model) to show how financial systems are naturally subject to the risk of systemic failures. Taking into account possible network structures among financial institutions, we investigate if simple policies can limit financial distress propagation to avoid system-wide crises, i.e. to dampen systemic risk. We therefore compare different immunization policies (i.e. targeted helps to financial institutions) and find that the information coming from the network topology allows to mitigate systemic cascades by targeting just few institutions.

  17. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI. CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI in Carnegie MellonUniversity in USA. CMMI is a framework for improvement and assessment of computer informationsystems. The method we used to define the measures is to apply the Goal Questions Metrics (GQMparadigm to the specific goals and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area in CMMI.

  19. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-02-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one. Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro) and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo) are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme) resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress), using the EPP dollar exchange rate. Our conclusions with

  20. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



    Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



    In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange

  1. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

    Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

    In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress

  2. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-07-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a

  3. Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

  4. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

    2013-06-15

    The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with

  5. Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2012-11-01

    Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insights into the long-term development, current implementation level and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures, empirical data from 752 flood-prone households along the German part of the Rhine are presented. It is found that four types of flood mitigation measures developed gradually over time among flood-prone households, with severe floods being important triggers for an accelerated implementation. At present, still a large share of respondents has not implemented a single flood mitigation measure, despite the high exposure of the surveyed households to floods. The records of household's flood damage to contents and structure during two consecutive flood events with similar hazard characteristics in 1993 and 1995 show that an improved preparedness of the population led to substantially reduced damage during the latter event. Regarding the efficiency of contemporary integrated flood risk management, it is concluded that additional policies are required in order to further increase the level of preparedness of the flood-prone population. This especially concerns households in areas that are less frequently affected by flood events.

  6. Focus: relative vulnerability of fossil fuel net exporters to climate change mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change contains explicit reference to the need to protect the interests of countries whose economies are particularly vulnerable to climate change mitigation measures. A recent study by the OPEC Secretariat showed that net exporters of fossil fuel in general, and OPEC in particular, would suffer from losses in export revenue as a result of climatic change mitigation measures. In this new study, an attempt is made to identify in more detail those countries that are likely to be most affected by such measures. 3 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.

    2011-12-01

    We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

  8. Pets' Impact on Your Patients' Health: Leveraging Benefits and Mitigating Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Kate; Barton, Luisa; Darling, Marcia; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence A; Monavvari, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Over two thirds of Americans live with pets and consider them important members of the family. Pets benefit human health (zooeyia) in 4 ways: as builders of social capital, as agents of harm reduction, as motivators for healthy behavior change, and as potential participants in treatment plans. Conversely, pets can present risks to their owners. They are potential sources of zoonotic disease and injury. Pets can also challenge a family's prioritization of financial and social resources. To activate the benefits of zooeyia and appropriately calibrate and mitigate zoonotic risk, physicians first need to know about the pets in their patients' families. Asking about pets is a simple and feasible approach to assess patients' environmental history and social capital. Asking about pets is a nonthreatening way to build rapport and demonstrates an interest in the whole family, which can improve the physician-patient therapeutic alliance. Physicians can use an interprofessional, collaborative approach with veterinarians to address zoonotic health risks and leverage zooeyia.

  9. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  10. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control.

  11. Measurement-based auralization methodology for the assessment of noise mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Pieter; Wei, Weigang; Van Renterghem, Timothy; Botteldooren, Dick

    2016-09-01

    The effect of noise mitigation measures is generally expressed by noise levels only, neglecting the listener's perception. In this study, an auralization methodology is proposed that enables an auditive preview of noise abatement measures for road traffic noise, based on the direction dependent attenuation of a priori recordings made with a dedicated 32-channel spherical microphone array. This measurement-based auralization has the advantage that all non-road traffic sounds that create the listening context are present. The potential of this auralization methodology is evaluated through the assessment of the effect of an L-shaped mound. The angular insertion loss of the mound is estimated by using the ISO 9613-2 propagation model, the Pierce barrier diffraction model and the Harmonoise point-to-point model. The realism of the auralization technique is evaluated by listening tests, indicating that listeners had great difficulty in differentiating between a posteriori recordings and auralized samples, which shows the validity of the followed approaches.

  12. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  13. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  14. Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  15. Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)

    2003-05-01

    The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.

  16. Mitigating wildland fire hazard using complex network centrality measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I.

    2016-12-01

    We show how to distribute firebreaks in heterogeneous forest landscapes in the presence of strong wind using complex network centrality measures. The proposed framework is essentially a two-tire one: at the inner part a state-of- the-art Cellular Automata model is used to compute the weights of the underlying lattice network while at the outer part the allocation of the fire breaks is scheduled in terms of a hierarchy of centralities which influence the most the spread of fire. For illustration purposes we applied the proposed framework to a real-case wildfire that broke up in Spetses Island, Greece in 1990. We evaluate the scheme against the benchmark of random allocation of firebreaks under the weather conditions of the real incident i.e. in the presence of relatively strong winds.

  17. Evaluating mitigation measures for diffuse pollution across time and space (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinton, J.; Deasy, C.

    2010-12-01

    National governments around the world are placing greater emphasis on reducing diffuse sources of pollutants. This has shifted attention away from end of pipe solutions to clearly identifiable pollutant problems, to catchment-wide interventions using tools that are often poorly understood and which may produce unexpected outcomes. Variability and lags in the temporal and spatial pollutant signal, complex behaviour affecting the mitigation process, and difficulties in gaining sufficient data for robust statistical analysis all lead to uncertainty in the results of mitigation trials. Nethertheless, pressure from policy makers forces scientists to make recommendations on the implementation of mitigation measures and their location within a watershed The diffuse pollution control issue becomes increasingly complicated as multiple diffuse pollutants are often present, and while mitigation measures may address one set of pollutants, interventions may increase problems associated with others and lead to ‘pollution swapping’ These issues become even more complex, as good water quality is only one of the services demanded from the watershed, and other land use pressures, including productivity, flood storage and biodiversity must also be considered. In this paper we explore these themes, making use of data and experiences gained from the Mitigation of Phosphorus and Sediment Project (funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs).

  18. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  19. Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

    2014-05-01

    This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse.

  20. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  1. Using Robust Decision Making to Assess and Mitigate the Risks of Natural Hazards in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, N.; Lempert, R. J.; Peyraud, S.

    2012-12-01

    flood risk. Finally, it demonstrates how an adaptive management strategy that evolves over time and implements management options in response to new information can more effectively mitigate risks from natural disasters than can static policies.; A scatter plot of risk to the poor and non-poor in 1000 different scenarios under eight different risk management options (differentiated by color).

  2. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed.

  3. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  4. Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    STEWART Mark G

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure,and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis,the procedure can be used to optimise blastmitigation strategies.The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which,when subjected to blast loading,has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants.Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios.The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling,glazing response and glazing failure criteria.Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building.The paper shows an illustrative exampie of how this information,when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria,can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

  5. 舟曲三眼峪"8.8"特大泥石流灾害特征与风险减缓对策%The Disaster Characteristics and Risk Mitigation Measures of "8.8" Debris Flow at Sanyanyu Gully,Zhouqu

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张茂省; 黎志恒; 孙萍萍; 赵成; 胡向德; 曾庆铭

    2011-01-01

    The debris flow happened on 8th august 2010 in Zhouqu county is a disaster which caused the biggest damage in Chinese recorded history. It is extremely meaningful to faithfully record the features, forming reasons and triggering factors of this debris flow, analysis the development and propose the risk mitigation measures for the reconstructions guidance and further study of this disaster. This paper takes the debris flow at Sanyanyu gulley as an example. The debris flow features were described according to the zoning and deposition characteristics, unit weight, velocity and discharge of the debris flow. The forming reasons were analyzed based on the topography, solid material properties, and the extremely rainfall conditions. The construction blockage of the debris flow outlet, disadvantageous human activities, and environmental degradation because of deforestation were recognized as the main reasons for this huge disaster. The potential debris flow at Sanyanyu gulley is developing. It is probable for the debris flow to occur again, and the frequency and scope will increase. A comprehensive risk mitigation measure incorporating local let-by, engineering treatment, monitoring, warning and public education was put forwarded.%舟曲"8.8"特大泥石流是我国有历史记载以来造成损失最大的一次泥石流灾害,如实地记录这次灾害的特点、形成条件及致灾因素,分析其发展趋势并提出风险减缓措施,对指导灾后重建和今后的研究都是十分必要的.以舟曲"8.8"泥石流中的三眼峪为对象,从泥石流分区特征、堆积特征以及其特征值等方面描述了泥石流灾害特征;从地形地貌、固体物质和极端降雨三方面分析了泥石流的成因.认为城镇建设挤占泥石流排泄通道、不合理的人类工程活动、毁林垦荒破坏生态环境是导致本次灾害损失惨重的原因;三眼峪沟泥石流仍处于发展之中,再次发生泥石流的

  6. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj

  7. Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

    2012-03-15

    The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second

  8. Alternatives to Crop Insurance for Mitigating Hydrologic Risk in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Gorski, G.; Wood, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Corn and soybean production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin can be limited by either excess or shortage of water, often in the same year within the same watershed. Most producers indemnify themselves against these hazards through the Federal crop insurance program, which is heavily subsidized, thus discouraging expenditures on other forms of risk mitigation. The cost is not trivial, amounting to more than 60 billion USD over the past 15 years. Examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records at the 8-digit scale suggests that inter-annual hydrologic variability in the region is increasing, particularly in an area stretching from NW IL through much of IA and southern MN. Analysis of crop insurance statistics shows that these same watersheds exhibit the highest frequency of coincident claims for yield losses to both excess water and drought within the same year. An emphasis on development of water management strategies to increase landscape storage and subsequent reuse through supplemental irrigation in this region could reduce the cost of the crop insurance program and stabilize yield. However, we also note that analysis of yield data from USDA-NASS shows that interannual yield variability at the watershed scale is much more muted than the indemnity data suggest, indicating that adverse selection is probably a factor in the crop insurance marketplace. Consequently, we propose that hydrologic mitigation practices may be most cost-effective if they are carefully targeted, using topographic, soil, and meteorological data, in combination with more site-specificity in crop insurance data.

  9. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  10. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  11. Post-mitigation impact risk assessment for NASA's DART kinetic impactor mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; DART, AIM

    2016-10-01

    Field-testing kinetic impactors to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) is essential to better understand the challenges of future asteroid impact threat mitigation. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment mission (AIDA, Cheng et al. 2016), a collaborative effort between NASA and ESA, offers a timely opportunity to validate kinetic impact deflection strategies. Although the main goal of NASA's kinetic impactor (DART) is to change the circumprimary orbit of (65803) Didymos' moonlet, the imparted momentum will also slightly change the heliocentric orbit of the whole binary asteroid system. Given the high degree of non-linearity of the near-Earth dynamical environment, however, even a small change in initial conditions can affect long term predictions of the encounter distances between Didymos and the Earth. Belonging to the dynamical class of PHAs, (65803) Didymos has several encounters with the Earth over the upcoming decades, some of which are closer than 20 lunar distances. In order to confirm that no planetary safety issues arise as a consequence of DART, we conducted a post-mitigation impact risk assessment (PMIRA, Eggl et al. 2015) for the currently foreseen DART impact trajectories. In this contribution we present the latest PMIRA results and discuss the role of ESA's AIM spacecraft in reducing uncertainties arising in the deflection process.

  12. Measuring nutritional risk in hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik H Rasmussen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Henrik H Rasmussen1,2, Mette Holst3, Jens Kondrup41Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 4Department of Human Nutrition, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Clinical Nutrition Unit, Rigshospitalet University Hospital, Copenhagen, DenmarkAbstract: About 20%–50% of patients in hospitals are undernourished. The number varies depending on the screening tool amended and clinical setting. A large number of these patients are undernourished when admitted to the hospital, and in most of these patients, undernutrition develops further during hospital stay. The nutrition course of the patient starts by nutritional screening and is linked to the prescription of a nutrition plan and monitoring. The purpose of nutritional screening is to predict the probability of a better or worse outcome due to nutritional factors and whether nutritional treatment is likely to influence this. Most screening tools address four basic questions: recent weight loss, recent food intake, current body mass index, and disease severity. Some screening tools, moreover, include other measurements for predicting the risk of malnutrition. The usefulness of screening methods recommended is based on the aspects of predictive validity, content validity, reliability, and practicability. Various tools are recommended depending on the setting, ie, in the community, in the hospital, and among elderly in institutions. The Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS 2002 seems to be the best validated screening tool, in terms of predictive validity ie, the clinical outcome improves when patients identified to be at risk are treated. For adult patients in hospital, thus, the NRS 2002 is recommended.Keywords: nutritional risk screening

  13. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  14. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier.

  15. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  16. Irradiation Resistivity and Mitigation Measurement Design for Xilinx Kintex-7 FPGAs

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2102127; Pichler, Michael

    For the upgrade in the Ring-Imaging Cherenkov Detector (RICH) in the LHCb detector, Xilinx Kintex-7 FPGAs are projected to be taken into operation as data acquisition devices for the measurement taken by the photosensors. They will be placed in the immediate surrounding area of the particle collision and hence have to face severe radiation. In order to have a prediction on the working reliability of the devices, irradiation tests will be performed to determine upset probability and effectiveness of mitigation techniques. The thesis deals with the question of designing an irradiation resistivity and mitigation measurement FPGA, its simulation, implementation and verification. To ensure reliable communication during radiation tests between the device-under-test and the DAQ module despite radioactive environment and limited cable resources, a custom protocol is examined and defined.

  17. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-05-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds.

  18. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the

  19. Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

    2009-07-01

    Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

  20. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  1. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebad Ghanbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment of vulnerable built in environment into areas susceptible seismic hazard. Seismic -hazard assessment an estimate of ground motion at the site of interest, taking into account instrumental and historical earthquake records, information on tectonics, geology, and attenuation characteristics of seismic waves Tabriz is important industrial city of Iran. It has a very high population density about 2.000000 people in area just 90 km2 . The main objective of the Tabriz seismic instrumentation and microzonation study was to carry out and propose new building in Tabriz and suburbs in order to apply these criteria its development programs and determine the potential for damage to existing constructions during earthquake motions, and finally earthquake risk mitigation assessment.

  2. Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

    2009-01-01

    Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

  3. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  4. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiv Shankar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  5. Volcanic risk: mitigation of lava flow invasion hazard through optimized barrier configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scifoni, S.; Coltelli, M.; Marsella, M.; Napoleoni, Q.; Del Negro, C.; Proietti, C.; Vicari, A.

    2009-04-01

    In order to mitigate the destructive effects of lava flows along volcanic slopes, the building of artificial barriers is a fundamental action for controlling and slowing down the lava flow advance, as experienced during a few recent eruptions of Etna. The simulated lava path can be used to define an optimize project to locate the work but for a timely action it is also necessary to quickly construct a barrier. Therefore this work investigates different type of engineering work that can be adopted to build up a lava containing barrier for improving the efficiency of the structure. From the analysis of historical cases it is clear that barriers were generally constructed by building up earth, lava blocks and incoherent, low density material. This solution implies complex operational constraints and logistical problems that justify the effort of looking for alternative design. Moreover for optimizing the barrier construction an alternative project of gabion-made barrier was here proposed. In this way the volume of mobilized material is lower than that for a earth barrier, thus reducing the time needed for build up the structure. A second crucial aspect to be considered is the geometry of the barrier which, is one of the few parameters that can be modulated, the others being linked to the morphological and topographical characteristics of the ground. Once the walls have been realized, it may be necessary to be able to expand the structure vertically. The use of gabion has many advantages over loose riprap (earthen walls) owing to their modularity and capability to be stacked in various shapes. Furthermore, the elements which are not inundated by lava can be removed and rapidly used for other barriers. The combination between numerical simulations and gabions will allow a quicker mitigation of risk on lava flows and this is an important aspect for a civil protection intervention in emergency cases.

  6. Ground Data System Risk Mitigation Techniques for Faster, Better, Cheaper Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catena, John J.; Saylor, Rick; Casasanta, Ralph; Weikel, Craig; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    With the advent of faster, cheaper, and better missions, NASA Projects acknowledged that a higher level of risk was inherent and accepted with this approach. It was incumbent however upon each component of the Project whether spacecraft, payload, launch vehicle, or ground data system to ensure that the mission would nevertheless be an unqualified success. The Small Explorer (SMEX) program's ground data system (GDS) team developed risk mitigation techniques to achieve these goals starting in 1989. These techniques have evolved through the SMEX series of missions and are practiced today under the Triana program. These techniques are: (1) Mission Team Organization--empowerment of a closeknit ground data system team comprising system engineering, software engineering, testing, and flight operations personnel; (2) Common Spacecraft Test and Operational Control System--utilization of the pre-launch spacecraft integration system as the post-launch ground data system on-orbit command and control system; (3) Utilization of operations personnel in pre-launch testing--making the flight operations team an integrated member of the spacecraft testing activities at the beginning of the spacecraft fabrication phase; (4) Consolidated Test Team--combined system, mission readiness and operations testing to optimize test opportunities with the ground system and spacecraft; and (5). Reuse of Spacecraft, Systems and People--reuse of people, software and on-orbit spacecraft throughout the SMEX mission series. The SMEX ground system development approach for faster, cheaper, better missions has been very successful. This paper will discuss these risk management techniques in the areas of ground data system design, implementation, test, and operational readiness.

  7. Laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy does not completely mitigate increased perioperative risks in elderly patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, May C; Croome, Kristopher P; Shubert, Christopher R; Farnell, Michael B; Truty, Mark J; Que, Florencia G; Reid-Lombardo, KMarie; Smoot, Rory L; Nagorney, David M; Kendrick, Michael L

    2015-01-01

    Background Elderly patients undergoing open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD) are at increased risk for surgical morbidity and mortality. Whether totally laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (TLPD) mitigates these risks has not been evaluated. Methods A retrospective review of outcomes in patients submitted to pancreatoduodenectomy during 2007–2014 was conducted (n = 860). Outcomes in elderly patients (aged ≥70 years) were compared with those in non-elderly patients with respect to risk-adjusted postoperative morbidity and mortality. Differences in outcomes between patients submitted to OPD and TLPD, respectively, were evaluated in the elderly subgroup. Results In elderly patients, the incidences of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 3.21, P < 0.001), respiratory events (OR 1.68, P = 0.04), delayed gastric emptying (DGE) (OR 1.73, P = 0.003), increased length of stay (LoS, 1 additional day) (P < 0.001), discharge disposition other than home (OR 8.14, P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 1.48, P = 0.05) were greater than in non-elderly patients. Morbidity and mortality did not differ between the OPD and TLPD subgroups of elderly patients. In elderly patients, OPD was associated with increased DGE (OR 1.80, P = 0.03), LoS (1 additional day; P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 2.89, P < 0.001) compared with TLPD. Conclusions Elderly patients undergoing TLPD experience rates of mortality, morbidity and cardiorespiratory events similar to those in patients submitted to OPD. In elderly patients, TLPD offers benefits by decreasing DGE, LoS and blood transfusion requirements. PMID:26294338

  8. Measurement and mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions from a high nitrogen input vegetable system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Shu Kee; Suter, Helen; Davies, Rohan; Bai, Mei; Sun, Jianlei; Chen, Deli

    2015-02-01

    The emission and mitigation of nitrous oxide (N2O) from high nitrogen (N) vegetable systems is not well understood. Nitrification inhibitors are widely used to decrease N2O emissions in many cropping systems. However, most N2O flux measurements and inhibitor impacts have been made with small chambers and have not been investigated at a paddock-scale using micrometeorological techniques. We quantified N2O fluxes over a four ha celery paddock using open-path Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with a backward Lagrangian stochastic model, in addition to using a closed chamber technique. The celery crop was grown on a sandy soil in southern Victoria, Australia. The emission of N2O was measured following the application of chicken manure and N fertilizer with and without the application of a nitrification inhibitor 3, 4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP). The two techniques consistently demonstrated that DMPP application reduced N2O emission by 37-44%, even though the N2O fluxes measured by a micrometeorological technique were more than 10 times higher than the small chamber measurements. The results suggest that nitrification inhibitors have the potential to mitigate N2O emission from intensive vegetable production systems, and that the national soil N2O emission inventory assessments and modelling predictions may vary with gas measurement techniques.

  9. Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

  10. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  11. Are changes in weather masking the efficacy of measures aimed at mitigating diffuse pollution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellander, Per-Erik; Jordan, Phil; Shore, Mairead; McDonald, Noeleen; Shortle, Ger

    2016-04-01

    Interpretations of the efficacy of mitigation measures for reducing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural sources to water bodies are challenged by the temporal variability of air temperature and rainfall. Influences are different depending on flow controls, associated time lags and nutrient transformations that may occur along the pathways. In Europe weather patterns and trends are influenced by large-scale weather systems over the North Atlantic. One of the most prominent teleconnection patterns that affect the weather across all seasons is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In northwestern Europe a positive phase in the NAO index over the winter period is often associated with elevated air temperatures in summer and more frequent large rain events in winter than normal. The objective of this study was to investigate the catchment-scale influences and relationships of naturally altered hydro-meteorological processes on the diffuse N and P losses to waters, in order to distinguish natural climate effects from those caused by adaptive management (increased agricultural intensity, decreased nutrient use etc.). Here we present six years of monthly nitrate-N and total reactive P concentrations in stream water (aggregated from sub-hourly monitoring) in six, ca. 10 km2, Irish agricultural catchments with different hydrological flow controls and land use. The locations of the catchments make them susceptible to sudden and/or seasonal shifts in weather. Changes in long term air temperatures and rainfall were investigated and annual N and P concentrations were compared to the NAO. During the monitored period (2009-2015) there was a steady increase in wintertime NAO index, reaching positive values in recent years, resulting in higher air temperatures and more frequent large rain events in winter. In some settings annual N and/or P concentrations were positively correlated to the three-year moving average NAO index (R2 > 0.90). Catchments with free

  12. The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Zuccaro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

  13. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  14. International approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff in mitigating flood and environmental risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballard Bridget Woods

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares and contrasts a number of international approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff from new development and redevelopment, known as sustainable drainage systems (SuDS or low impact development (LID. The paper provides a commentary on the progress and current status of national standards for SuDS in the UK to control the frequency, flow rate and volume of runoff from both frequent and extreme rainfall events, and the best practice design criteria presented in the revised UK CIRIA SuDS Manual, published in November 2015. The paper then compares these design criteria and standards with those developed and applied in China, USA, France and Germany and also looks at the drivers behind their development. The benefits of these different approaches are assessed in the context of flood risk mitigation, climate resilience and wider environmental protection objectives, including water quality, morphology and ecology. The paper also reviews the design approaches promoted by the new SuDS Manual and internationally for delivering additional benefits for urban spaces (such as recreation, visual character, education and economic growth through multi-functional urban design.

  15. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  16. Techniques to Assess and Mitigate the Environmental Risk Posed by use of Airguns: Recent Advances from Academic Research Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, P. J.; Tyack, P. L.; Johnson, M. P.; Madsen, P. T.; King, R.

    2006-05-01

    There is considerable uncertainty about the ways in which marine mammals might react to noise, the biological significance of reactions, and the effectiveness of planning and real-time mitigation techniques. A planning tool commonly used to assess environmental risk of acoustic activities uses simulations to predict acoustic exposures received by animals, and translates exposure to response using a dose-response function to yield an estimate of the undesired impact on a population. Recent advances show promise to convert this planning tool into a real-time mitigation tool, using Bayesian statistical methods. In this approach, being developed for use by the British Navy, the environmental risk simulation is updated continuously during field operations. The distribution of exposure, set initially based on animal density, is updated in real-time using animal sensing data or environmental data known to correlate with the absence or presence of marine mammals. This conditional probability of animal presence should therefore be more accurate than prior probabilities used during planning, which enables a more accurate and quantitative assessment of both the impact of activities and reduction of impact via mitigation decisions. Two key areas of uncertainty in addition to animal presence/absence are 1.) how biologically-relevant behaviours are affected by exposure to noise, and 2.) whether animals avoid loud noise sources, which is the basis of ramp-up as a mitigation tool. With support from MMS and industry partners, we assessed foraging behaviour and avoidance movements of 8 tagged sperm whales in the Gulf of Mexico during experimental exposure to airguns. The whale that was approached most closely prolonged a surface resting bout hours longer than typical, but resumed foraging immediately after the airguns ceased, suggesting avoidance of deep diving necessary for foraging near active airguns. Behavioral indices of foraging rate (echolocation buzzes produced during prey

  17. Partial continuation model and its application in mitigating systematic errors of double-differenced GPS measurements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Jianfeng; OU Jikun; REN Chao

    2005-01-01

    Based on the so-called partial continuation model with exact finite measurements, a new stochastic assessment procedure is introduced. For every satellite pair, the temporal correlation coefficient is estimated using the original double-differenced (DD) GPS measurements. And then, the Durbin-Watson test is applied to test specific hypothesis on the temporal correlation coefficient. Unless the test is not significant with a certain significant level, a data transformation is required. These transformed measurements are free of time correlations. For purpose of illustration, two static GPS baseline data sets are analyzed in detail. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed procedure can mitigate effectively the impact of systematic errors on DD GPS measurements.

  18. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical model

  19. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  20. Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation

  1. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally

  2. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  3. Climate Change And Mitigation Measures For The Hydrometerological Disaster In Himachal Pradesh India- In Light Of Dams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay K. Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the climate of the Himalayan region. Casualties and damage due to hazards in mountain regions will increase irrespective of global warming especially where populations are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations. But climate change will definitely increase risk due to the fact that expected increases of heavy rainfall heat waves and glacier melt will amplify hazards in Himalayan region. The rapid release of melt water and rainfall may combine to trigger debris flows and flash flood in higher ranges including the formation of potentially dangerous lakes. These lakes may breach suddenly resulting in discharge of huge volume of water and debris. Himachal Pradesh had experienced a large number of incidences of Hydro-meteorological disaster HMD since its inception in 1971. Flash flood of March 1975 Dec 1988 Satluj flash flood of August 2000 July 2001 June 2005 Flash flood of July 2005 and Cloud burst in June 2013 are the major natural calamities in Himachal Pradesh. Due to continuous HMD brought heavy toll to the state as the loss was estimated in several thousand millions of rupees and also killed several hundreds of people besides large number of cattle heads. Through this paper we carried out a comprehensive study of past HMD and mitigation measures solution and concluded that these disaster are by their nature difficult to predict and control but it is possible to reduce the risk to lives and property through develop mitigation strategy and plan to construct damsbarrages with awareness and knowledge among local communities about the impacts of global warming natural disaster and the threat to the ecosystem communities and infrastructure are generally inadequate.

  4. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  5. 49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... detection systems, replacing pipe segments with pipe of heavier wall thickness, providing additional... accordance with one of the risk assessment approaches in ASME/ANSI B31.8S (incorporated by reference, see § 192.7), section 5, a risk analysis of its pipeline to identify additional measures to protect the...

  6. Combined risk measures: representation results and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, Ove Ernst

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to d

  7. Secondary effects of urban heat island mitigation measures on air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Forkel, Renate; Emeis, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This study presents numerical simulations analysing the effect of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation measures on the chemical composition of the urban atmosphere. The mesoscale chemical transport model WRF-Chem is used to investigate the impact of urban greening and highly reflective surfaces on the concentrations of primary (CO, NO) as well as secondary pollutants (O3) inside the urban canopy. In order to account for the sub-grid scale heterogeneity of urban areas, a multi-layer urban canopy model is coupled to WRF-Chem. Using this canopy model at its full extend requires the introduction of several urban land use classes in WRF-Chem. The urban area of Stuttgart serves as a test bed for the modelling of a case scenario of the 2003 European Heat Wave. The selected mitigation measures are able to reduce the urban temperature by about 1 K and the mean ozone concentration by 5-8%. Model results however document also negative secondary effects on urban air quality, which are closely related to a decrease of vertical mixing in the urban boundary layer. An increase of primary pollutants NO and CO by 5-25% can be observed. In addition, highly reflective surfaces can increase peak ozone concentration by up to 12% due to a high intensity of reflected shortwave radiation accelerating photochemical reactions.

  8. Sustainment in the Army 2020: Using the Army’s Sustainment Principles to Identify and Mitigate Risks Associated with Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-12

    SUSTAINMENT IN THE ARMY 2020: USING THE ARMY’S SUSTAINMENT PRINCIPLES TO IDENTIFY AND MITIGATE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE ...Army 2020: Using the Army’s Sustainment Principles to Identify and Mitigate Risks Associated with Organizational Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...with these organizational changes and provide DOTMLPF recommendations to reduce risk and enhance capabilities of the sustainment force. The

  9. A Contribution to Mitigating Seismic Risk in the Bay Area: The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) GPS Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houlie, N.; Romanowicz, B.; Hellweg, P.

    2007-05-01

    In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), two million people live in a geologically complex, tectonically active region that has experienced several historic earthquakes, including the 1868 Hayward, the 1906 San Francisco, and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Geodetic measurements, which are especially useful for detecting deformation and strain on deep structures throughout the seismic cycle, show that Bay Area deformation is both spatially complex and varying with time. Increasingly, GPS data can also be used in real time to complement seismic data in providing robust real-time earthquake information, and, potentially, early warning. The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network of permanent, continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers monitors crustal deformation in the Bay Area and northern California. BARD is a network collocated with several seismic networks (BDSN, NHFN, mini-PBO) operating in Northern California. As the local determination of magnitude is problematic for large earthquakes, the GPS will provide strong constraints on rupture geometry and amount of slip along the slipping fault. Thus, the collocation of all the networks will help mitigate earthquake- related risks associated with an earthquake in the SFBA or in northern California.

  10. RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility

  11. Experimental study designs to improve the evaluation of road mitigation measures for wildlife

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rytwinski, T.; Van der Ree, van der R.; Cunnington, G.M.; Fahrig, L.; Findlay, C.S.; Houlahan, J.; Jaeger, J.A.G.; Soanes, K.; Grift, van der E.A.

    2015-01-01

    An experimental approach to road mitigation that maximizes inferential power is essential to ensure that mitigation is both ecologically-effective and cost-effective. Here, we set out the need for and standards of using an experimental approach to road mitigation, in order to improve knowledge of th

  12. FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES* Farmers’ Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults

    OpenAIRE

    DOVER, SALLY E.; Buys, David R.; ALLOCCA, SALLY; Locher, Julie L.

    2013-01-01

    Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population.

  13. Computation of Material Demand in the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process Eleanor L. Schwartz James S. Thomason, Project Leader INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 4850 Mark Center Drive Alexandria...the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process Eleanor L. Schwartz James S. Thomason, Project Leader iii...Inter-industry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM), College Park , MD, 2001. Meade, Douglas S., et al. ILIAD. Inter-industry

  14. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  15. Risk measures and comonotonicity: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhaene, J.L.M.; Vanduffel, S.; Tang, Q.; Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Vyncke, D.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we examine and summarize properties of several well-known risk measures that can be used in the framework of setting solvency capital requirements for a risky business. Special attention is given to the class of (concave) distortion risk measures. We investigate the relationship betwee

  16. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  17. Mitigating Systematic Errors in Angular Correlation Function Measurements from Wide Field Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Morrison, Christopher Brian

    2015-01-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function (PSF) size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10% for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50% for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order $\\sim$1% when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogs are estimated from the observed galaxy over densities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correl...

  18. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  19. Risk mitigation by waste-based permeable reactive barriers for groundwater pollution control at e-waste recycling sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beiyuan, Jingzi; Tsang, Daniel C W; Yip, Alex C K; Zhang, Weihua; Ok, Yong Sik; Li, Xiang-Dong

    2017-02-01

    Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) have proved to be a promising passive treatment to control groundwater contamination and associated human health risks. This study explored the potential use of low-cost adsorbents as PRBs media and assessed their longevity and risk mitigation against leaching of acidic rainfall through an e-waste recycling site, of which Cu, Zn, and Pb were the major contaminants. Batch adsorption experiments suggested a higher adsorption capacity of inorganic industrial by-products [acid mine drainage sludge (AMDS) and coal fly ash (CFA)] and carbonaceous recycled products [food waste compost (FWC) and wood-derived biochar] compared to natural inorganic minerals (limestone and apatite). Continuous leaching tests of sand columns with 10 wt% low-cost adsorbents were then conducted to mimic the field situation of acidic rainfall infiltration through e-waste-contaminated soils (collected from Qingyuan, China) by using synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) solution. In general, Zn leached out first, followed by Cu, and finally delayed breakthrough of Pb. In the worst-case scenario (e.g., at initial concentrations equal to 50-fold of average SPLP result), the columns with limestone, apatite, AMDS, or biochar were effective for a relatively short period of about 20-40 pore volumes of leaching, after which Cu breakthrough caused non-cancer risk concern and later-stage Pb leaching considerably increased both non-cancer and lifetime cancer risk associated with portable use of contaminated water. In contrast, the columns with CFA or FWC successfully mitigated overall risks to an acceptable level for a prolonged period of 100-200 pore volumes. Therefore, with proper selection of low-cost adsorbents (or their mixture), waste-based PRBs is a technically feasible and economically viable solution to mitigate human health risk due to contaminated groundwater at e-waste recycling sites.

  20. Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

    2011-07-01

    Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

  1. Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

    2009-12-10

    On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a

  2. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  3. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  4. PRESS40: a project for involving students in active seismic risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnaba, Carla; Contessi, Elisa; Rosa Girardi, Maria

    2016-04-01

    To memorialize the anniversary of the 1976 Friuli earthquake, the Istituto Statale di Istruzione Superiore "Magrini Marchetti" in Gemona del Friuli (NE Italy), with the collaboration of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), has promoted the PRESS40 Project (Prevenzione Sismica nella Scuola a 40 anni dal terremoto del Friuli, that in English sounds like "Seismic Prevention at School 40 years later the Friuli earthquake"). The project has developed in the 2015-2016 school year, starting from the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake, and it aims to disseminate historical memory, seismic culture and awareness of seismic safety in the young generations, too often unconscious of past experiences, as recent seismic hazard perception tests have demonstrated. The basic idea of the PRESS40 Project is to involve the students in experimental activities to be active part of the seismic mitigation process. The Project is divided into two main parts, the first one in which students learn-receive knowledge from researchers, and the second one in which they teach-bring knowledge to younger students. In the first part of the project, 75 students of the "Magrini Marchetti" school acquired new geophysical data, covering the 23 municipalities from which they come from. These municipalities represent a wide area affected by the 1976 Friuli earthquake. In each locality a significant site was examined, represented by a school area. At least, 127 measurements of ambient noise have been acquired. Data processing and interpretation of all the results are still going on, under the supervision of OGS researchers.The second part of the project is planned for the early spring, when the students will present the results of geophysical survey to the younger ones of the monitored schools and to the citizens in occasion of events to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake.

  5. Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    CERN Document Server

    Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-01-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...

  6. Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-10-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of censored microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, P; Geeraerd, A H; Uyttendaele, M; Van Impe, J F

    2011-06-01

    Microbiological contamination data often is censored because of the presence of non-detects or because measurement outcomes are known only to be smaller than, greater than, or between certain boundary values imposed by the laboratory procedures. Therefore, it is not straightforward to fit distributions that summarize contamination data for use in quantitative microbiological risk assessment, especially when variability and uncertainty are to be characterized separately. In this paper, distributions are fit using Bayesian analysis, and results are compared to results obtained with a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation and the non-parametric bootstrap method. The Bayesian model is also extended hierarchically to estimate the effects of the individual elements of a covariate such as, for example, on a national level, the food processing company where the analyzed food samples were processed, or, on an international level, the geographical origin of contamination data. Including this extra information allows a risk assessor to differentiate between several scenario's and increase the specificity of the estimate of risk of illness, or compare different scenario's to each other. Furthermore, inference is made on the predictive importance of several different covariates while taking into account uncertainty, allowing to indicate which covariates are influential factors determining contamination.

  8. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  9. Dissemination of well water arsenic results to homeowners in Central Maine: Influences on mitigation behavior and continued risks for exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, Sara V.; Marvinney, Robert G.; Johnston, Robert A.; Yang, Qiang; Zheng, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Private wells in the United States are unregulated for drinking water standards and are the homeowner’s responsibility to test and treat. Testing for water quality parameters such as arsenic (As) is a crucial first step for homeowners to take protective actions. This study seeks to identify key behavioral factors influencing homeowners’ decisions to take action after receiving well As test results. A January 2013 survey of central Maine households (n=386, 73% response) who were notified 3–7 years earlier that their well water contained As above 10 μg/L found that 43% of households report installing As treatment systems. Another 30% report taking other mitigation actions such as drinking bottled water because of the As, but the remaining 27% of households did not act. Well water As level appears to be a motivation for mitigation: 31% of households with well water level between 10 and 50 μg/L did not act, compared to 13% of households with well water > 50 μg/L. Belief that the untreated water is not safe to drink (risk) and that reducing drinking water As would increase home value (instrumental attitude) were identified as significant predictors of mitigating As. Mitigating As exposure is associated with less worry about the As level (affective attitude), possibly because those acting to reduce exposure feel less worried about As. Use of a treatment system specifically was significantly predicted by confidence that one can maintain a treatment system, even if there are additional costs (self-efficacy). An assessment of As treatment systems used by 68 of these households with well water As >10 μg/L followed up with in August-November 2013 found that 15% of treatment units failed to produce water below As 10 μg/L, suggesting there are continued risks for exposure even after the decision is made to treat. PMID:24726512

  10. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el

  11. Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

  12. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  13. Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2016-01-01

    Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

  14. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic : modeling the risks and health-economic impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George; Nelson, E. Anthony S.; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P.

    2010-01-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic infl

  15. Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strohmer, F.

    2013-07-01

    This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

  16. Risks and Mitigating Factors in Decisions to Accept Students with Criminal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Miriam; Swick, Danielle; Richman, Jack

    2009-01-01

    Social work educators have few guidelines to help them evaluate master's of social work applicants with criminal records. This study surveyed 280 field supervisors and asked them to rate their likelihood of rejecting a student with a criminal record depending on crime type and mitigating factors. Results found that supervisors' perception of risk…

  17. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  18. Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    European Food Safety Authority

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

  19. Atmospheric particulate mercury in the megacity Beijing: Efficiency of mitigation measures and assessment of health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, N. J.; Schäfer, J.; Chen, Y.; Blanc, G.; Chen, Y.; Chai, F.; Cen, K.; Norra, S.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric particulate mercury (HgP) was studied before, during, and after the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, China, in August 2008 in order to investigate the efficiency of the emission control measures implemented by the Chinese Government. These source control measures comprised traffic reductions, increase in public transportation, planting of vegetation, establishment of parks, building freeze at construction sites, cleaner production techniques for industries and industry closures in Beijing and also in the surrounding areas. Strictest measures including the "odd-even ban" to halve the vehicle volume were enforced from the 20th of July to the 20th of September 2008. The Olympic period provided the unique opportunity to investigate the efficiency of these comprehensive actions implemented in order to reduce air pollution on a large scale. Therefore, the sampling period covered summer (August, September) and winter (December and January) samples over several years from December 2005 to September 2013. Average HgP concentrations in total suspended particulates (TSP) sampled in August 2008 were 81 ± 39 pg/m3 while TSP mass concentrations were 93 ± 49 μg/m3. This equals a reduction by about 63% for TSP mass and 65% for HgP, respectively, compared to the previous two years demonstrating the short-term success of the measures. However, after the Olympic Games, HgP concentrations increased again to pre-Olympic levels in August 2009 while values in August 2010 decreased again by 30%. Moreover, winter samples, which were 2- to 11-fold higher than corresponding August values, showed decreasing concentrations over the years indicating a long-term improvement of HgP pollution in Beijing. However, regarding adverse health effects, comparisons with soil guideline values and studies from other cities highlighted that HgP concentrations in TSP remained high in Beijing despite respective control measures. Consequently, future mitigation measures need to be tailored more

  20. Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

    2009-12-01

    The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of

  1. An optimization model for regional air pollutants mitigation based on the economic structure adjustment and multiple measures: A case study in Urumqi city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaowei; Li, Wei; Xie, Yulei; Huang, Guohe; Dong, Changjuan; Yin, Jianguang

    2016-11-01

    A model based on economic structure adjustment and pollutants mitigation was proposed and applied in Urumqi. Best-worst case analysis and scenarios analysis were performed in the model to guarantee the parameters accuracy, and to analyze the effect of changes of emission reduction styles. Results indicated that pollutant-mitigations of electric power industry, iron and steel industry, and traffic relied mainly on technological transformation measures, engineering transformation measures and structure emission reduction measures, respectively; Pollutant-mitigations of cement industry relied mainly on structure emission reduction measures and technological transformation measures; Pollutant-mitigations of thermal industry relied mainly on the four mitigation measures. They also indicated that structure emission reduction was a better measure for pollutants mitigation of Urumqi. Iron and steel industry contributed greatly in SO2, NOx and PM (particulate matters) emission reduction and should be given special attention in pollutants emission reduction. In addition, the scales of iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of SO2 mitigation amounts. The scales of traffic and electric power industry should be reduced with the decrease of NOx mitigation amounts, and the scales of cement industry and iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of PM mitigation amounts. The study can provide references of pollutants mitigation schemes to decision-makers for regional economic and environmental development in the 12th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development of Urumqi.

  2. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-02-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

  3. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  4. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    PETRONE, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


    ...

  5. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    PETRONE, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics ...

  6. An overview of representation theorems for static risk measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG YongSheng; YAN JiaAn

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we give an overview of representation theorems for various static risk measures: coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity, law-invariant coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity and respecting stochastic orders.

  7. An overview of representation theorems for static risk measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,we give an overview of representation theorems for various static risk measures:coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity, law-invariant coherent or convex risk measures, risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity and respecting stochastic orders.

  8. Mitigation measures to reduce losses of phosphorus during the non-cropping period - a northern European perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degradation of natural waters by phosphorus (P) due to agricultural activities has been a problem in several countries for many years. Accordingly, mitigation measures to minimize this issue have been developed and used with varying success. Non-point source P from agricultural fields is one of the ...

  9. Liquidity RiskMeasurement and Control

    OpenAIRE

    Blahová, Naďa

    2012-01-01

    The article deals with the liquidity risk in the banks in the context of the financial crisis. At first, the balance sheet and market liquidity are defined and the main principles of the methods for measuring liquidity risk, which banks use, are identified. Then follow review of main challenges of managing the liquidity of banks. Finally, it discusses qualitative regulatory requirements and eligibility of newly formulated standards with regard to minimum liquidity in general and in relation t...

  10. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  11. Micro rain cell measurements in tropical India for site diversity fade mitigation estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ashish K.; Roy, Bijoy; Das, Saurabh; Charania, A. R.; Kavaiya, K. S.; Bandyopadhyay, Kalyan; Dasgupta, K. S.

    2010-02-01

    Intersite separation (ISS) between two terminals is one of the important parameters required for implementation of site diversity (SD), as a fade mitigation technique (FMT), in moderate to heavy rain conditions usually encountered in tropical climates. This paper presents the findings of an experiment during the monsoon periods of years 2007 and 2008. It establishes the existence of micro rain cell (MRC) at a tropical site, Ahmedabad (23.06°, 72.62°), India, using measurements from tipping bucket rain gauge network. Spatial extent of MRCs and derived attenuation cells is examined on the basis of their maximum occurrence for initial to mid and last spells of years 2007 and 2008. The analysis also presents ISS statistics of monsoon periods for both the years. Microscale SD as FMT has been discussed on the basis of the calculated diversity gain at Ka band frequency in view of the proposed GSAT-4 satellite. These are the very first findings of their kind over the region of study.

  12. Water Quality, Mitigation Measures of Arsenic Contamination and Sustainable Rural Water Supply Options in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HOSSAIN M. ANAWAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Arsenic contamination of groundwater has created a serious public health issue in Bangladesh and West Bengal (India, because groundwater is widely used for drinking, household and agriculture purposes. Given the magnitude of the problem of groundwater contamination facing Bangladesh, effective, acceptable and sustainable solutions are urgently required. Different NGOs (Non-government organizations and research organizations are using their extensive rural networks to raise awareness and conduct pilot projects. The implication of the results from the previous studies is robust, but coastly arsenic reduction technologies such as activated alumina technology, and As and Fe removal filters may find little social acceptance, unless heavily subsidized. This review paper analysed the quality of surface water and ground water, all mitigation measures and the most acceptable options to provide sustainable access to safe- water supply in the rural ares of Bangladesh. Although there are abundant and different sources of surface water, they can not be used for drinking and hosehold purposes due to lack of sanitation, high faecal coliform concentration, turibidity and deterioration of quality of surface water sources. There are a few safe surface water options; and also there are several methods available for removal of arsenic and iron from groundwater in large conventional treatments plants. This review paper presented a short description of the currently available and most sustainable technologies for arsenic and iron removal, and alternative water supply options in the rural areas.

  13. Implications of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) programs for managed care pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Gaurang; Chon, Ashley; Johnson, Nik; Kidder, Phyllis A; Lee, Peter; Leung, Kevin; Ma, Ingrid; Ness, Stacey; Sampsel, Elizabeth; Schlaifer, Marissa; Seifert, Randall; Sternaman, Debora B

    2012-04-01

    In the last 2 decades, health care management has been challenged by more aggressive therapy, the increased number of specialty medications, and more stringent guidelines to monitor adverse events or health risk. To promote patient safety, various communication requirements are mandated to increase the risk awareness of patients and physicians. These include black-box warnings, "Dear Health Care Provider" letters, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Talk Papers, MedGuides, and Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs).

  14. Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiko; Mizutani, Tadahito; Komatsu, Keiji; Okazaki, Shun; Ogawa, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Takao; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

    2014-08-01

    The Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2025. The SPICA mission is to be launched into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point in the Sun-Earth system, which allows us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with a mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3m large IR telescope below 6K. The use of 4K / 1K-class Joule-Thomson coolers is proposed in order to cool the telescope and provide a 4K / 1K temperature region for Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs). This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for the SPICA payload module in the Risk-Mitigation-Phase (RMP), in which the activity is focused on mitigating the mission's highest risks. As the result of the RMP activity, most of all the goals have been fully satisfied and the thermal design of the payload module has been dramatically improved.

  15. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R; Mankin, Justin S; Cook, Benjamin I; Smerdon, Jason E

    2016-10-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  16. Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2015-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  17. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2016-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half. PMID:27713927

  18. Livestock system as a mitigation measure of a wind farm in a mountain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoniotto Guidobono Cavalchini

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The study concerns a mountain territory, bordering Liguria, Piemonte, Lombardia and Emilia, where a high power 151 MW wind farm, with 42 tower of 3.6 MW power, has been proposed. As a measure of environmental mitigation, the realization of a livestock system of a herd of sucker cows pasturing in the wind farm areas is proposed. This has implications for environmental maintenance, employment in a territory gradually losing its population, and for tourism. The study, having focused on those aspects that reduce landscape impact and carrying out an analysis of the individual areas to evaluate forage resources and the different pastoral indexes, identifies the maximum sustainable load of animals (335 UBA/ha in the current conditions of neglect. So, some measures to improve and increase sustainable herds have been proposed and examined. The operations include: stone removal; light harrowing; overseeding; creation of fodder reserves for periods of shortage; and grazing will be managed by taking turns. Based on the results of two other studies, both previous tests carried out on site, encourage us to think that we will be able to increase the maximum sustainable seasonal load for the current situation by more than 50%. This means a herd of 500 UBA equal to a gross PLV, for the grazing period of 180 days, of 400,000 and so guarantee an adequate income to 3-4 UL (labor unit, and of 650,000/year in case the chain is completed during the winter months in structures located in the valley. In this case, the PLV obtained could assure income to 6-7 employees, which would be extremely important for the socio-economic conditions of the valley; in consideration of the induced activities- meat processing, marketing and tourism facilities- which could be made available. Experimental tests of the technical improvements described will be carried out in the next season.

  19. Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanyi Tang

    Full Text Available Since the emergence of influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus in March-April 2009, very stringent interventions including Fengxiao were implemented to prevent importation of infected cases and decelerate the disease spread in mainland China. The extent to which these measures have been effective remains elusive. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of Fengxiao that may inform policy decisions on improving community-based interventions for management of on-going outbreaks in China, in particular during the Spring Festival in mid-February 2010 when nationwide traveling will be substantially increased. We obtained data on initial laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1 in the province of Shaanxi and used Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC simulations to estimate the reproduction number. Given the estimates for the exposed and infectious periods of the novel H1N1 virus, we estimated a mean reproduction number of 1.68 (95% CI 1.45-1.92 and other A/H1N1 epidemiological parameters. Our results based on a spatially stratified population dynamical model show that the early implementation of Fengxiao can delay the epidemic peak significantly and prevent the disease spread to the general population but may also, if not implemented appropriately, cause more severe outbreak within universities/colleges, while late implementation of Fengxiao can achieve nothing more than no implementation. Strengthening local control strategies (quarantine and hygiene precaution is much more effective in mitigating outbreaks and inhibiting the successive waves than implementing Fengxiao. Either strong mobility or high transport-related transmission rate during the Spring Festival holiday will not reverse the ongoing outbreak, but both will result in a large new wave. The findings suggest that Fengxiao and travel precautions should not be relaxed unless strict measures of quarantine, isolation, and hygiene precaution practices are put in place. Integration and prompt implementation of

  20. Soil bioengineering measures for disaster mitigation and environmental restoration in Central America: authochtonal cuttings suitability and economic efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-04-01

    The use of Soil Bio-Engineering techniques in Developing countries is a relevant issue for Disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of this Discipline. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of Soil Bio-engineering works in the Humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, Soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for Soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Thus, a conclusion can be reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions

  1. Contributing understanding of mitigation options for phosphorus and sediment to a review of the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Experiences from the Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) projects, which aim to determine the effectiveness of measures to reduce pollutant loading from agricultural land to surface waters, have been used to contribute to the findings of a recent paper (Kay et al., 2009, Agricultural Systems, 99, 67-75), which reviewed the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures for ameliorating the water pollution problems of key concern to the UK water industry. MOPS1 is...

  2. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory;

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness a...... able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company....

  3. Approving the ISDWIR method of risk measurement in making risk management decision

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Inte- gral Sum of Differential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matri- ces. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good effects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also compa...

  4. Power grid operation in a market environment economic efficiency and risk mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book examines both system operation and market operation perspectives, focusing on the interaction between the two. It incorporates up-to-date field experiences, presents challenges, and summarizes the latest theoretic advancements to address those challenges. The book is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the fundamentals of integrated system and market operations, including market power mitigation, market efficiency evaluation, and the implications of operation practices in energy markets. The second part discusses developing technologies to strengthen the use of the grid in energy markets. System volatility and economic impact introduced by the intermittency of wind and solar generation are also addressed. The third part focuses on stochastic applications, exploring new approaches of handling uncerta nty in Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) as well as the reserves needed for power system operation. The fourth part provides ongoing efforts of utilizing transmission facilities ...

  5. DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an

  6. The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy

  7. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex measur

  8. Simulations and measurements on muzzle blast mitigation with sound absorbing barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Berg, F.H.A. van den

    2012-01-01

    Environmental research is ongoing to predict and to mitigate the noise impact of heavy weapons or explosives. In the densely populated area of the Netherlands this is of particular interest for the Ministry of Defence as the shock waves can propagate over large distances. In this research program th

  9. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters.

  10. Cooperative Crisis Management and Avian Influenza. A Risk Assessment Guide for International Contagious Disease Prevention and Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    commercial poultry production facilities, areas in the community where poultry are produced in backyards , and markets where live poultry are sold. Third...goal towards diminishing the risk of avian influenza to humans and poultry ” along with “approaches and implementation plans for the control of...as in the case of avian influenza, where poultry workers and persons who keep small domestic flocks of chickens are at higher risk for exposure from

  11. Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational ...

  12. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  13. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  14. Abstracts of Main EssaysThe" Middle Way" of Philosophy and the Mitigation of Thought Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    He Lai Philosophy is of double characters, which means it contains the thought risk of " self-alienation". The thought risk of philosophy is rooted in two extreme trends, namely "the desire to be god's words" and "the let- alone of self-dwarfing". To give up the deep-rooted arrogance and the desire for control and at the same time undertake its duty courageously in a modern society, which is the "Middle way of philosophy". Only through this way, philosophy will avoid the fate of self alienation and its thought risk and prove to be the positive strength to push forward the free life of human being.

  15. Alternative risk measure for decision-making under uncertainty in water management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yueping Xu; YeouKoung Tung; Jia Li; Shaofeng Niu

    2009-01-01

    Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social,economic and environmental changes.Often,uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options,possibly leading to a wrong decision.In this paper,an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean.This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive,general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature.The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects.The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decisionmaking process under uncertainty.

  16. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  17. Mitigating the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency: the case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, J.F.; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Mekonnen, M.M.; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on esti

  18. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  19. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  20. Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna

    2013-04-01

    Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.

  1. ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM CONVENTIONAL SOURCES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE THE PRODUCED IMPACTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL CALANTER

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The electricity sector represents the sector with the greatest impact in terms of producing climate change, mainly due to the greenhouse gas emissions generated through the burning of fossil fuels. It is not however the only negative aspect associated to the classic technologies of electricity production. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental aspects associated to the technologies for the electricity production from conventional sources and as a conclusion of the research it will also propose certain specific measures designed to mitigate their impacts. Therefore, the analysis will focus on economic issues, such as limited resources of fuels and the significant fluctuation in fuel prices, low energy efficiency, environmental protection expenditures and health issues as a result of the pollution generated by the electricity production and environmental aspects related primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, but also to extraction, transport and storage, aspects concerning the management of waste generated by the energy sector or to the risks associated with the process of producing electricity. In the final part of the paper a few measures will be proposed to mitigate the impact on the environment and economic development of such technologies, as well as increasing energy efficiency, promoting renewable sources of energy, carbon dioxide capture and storage, limiting deforestation, afforestation or the prevention of accidents in the energy sector.

  2. The status quo of radon concentrations and mitigation measures in underground working places of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiaoyan; ZHENG Baoshan; WANG Yan; WANG Xue

    2005-01-01

    By using solid-state nuclear detectors, the air radon concentrations at 87 underground working places were measured during spring, summer and winter, respectively. The survey covered 23 cities whose annual radon concentrations range from 14.9 to 246.4 Bq·m -3 with an overall arithmetic mean value of 106.7 Bq·m -3. The average annual effective dose received by people working in these underground working places was 1.6 mSv, hence the lifetime fatality risk was 1.2×10 -4. Fujian Province had the highest radon level during the survey. It is better to reduce the radon concentration heavily in summer because of higher radon concentration than in winter.

  3. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Street, J., E-mail: joseph.street@mines.sdsmt.edu; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D. [Department of Physics, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD 57701 (United States)

    2015-08-17

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ∼0.2 Bq m{sup −3}. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m{sup −3} to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m{sup −3}.

  4. Construction and Measurements of an Improved Vacuum-Swing-Adsorption Radon-Mitigation System

    CERN Document Server

    Street, J; Dunagan, C; Loose, X; Schnee, R W; Stark, M; Sundarnath, K; Tronstad, D

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of $\\sim$0.2$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a $>$$\\,$300$\\times$ reduction from an input activity of $58.6\\pm0.7$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$ to a cleanroom activity of $0.13\\pm0.06$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$.

  5. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, J.; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D.

    2015-08-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ˜0.2 Bq m-3. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m-3 to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m-3.

  6. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  7. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Campbell

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  8. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

    2014-09-01

    This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS) and mitigation efforts - here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  9. Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

  10. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Schyns, Joep F.; Arwa Hamaideh; Arjen Y. Hoekstra; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Marlou Schyns

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water sca...

  11. Mitigating the Health Risks of Dining Out: The Need for Standardized Portion Sizes in Restaurants

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Deborah A.; Story, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Because restaurants routinely serve food with more calories than people need, dining out represents a risk factor for overweight, obesity and other diet-related chronic diseases. Most people lack the capacity to judge the caloric content of food and there is limited evidence that people make use of calorie-labeling information when it is available. Standardized portion sizes would not preclude people from eating as much as they want, but would make the amount they are getting fully transparen...

  12. Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies : Suppliers and Retailers in the Swedish Organic Food Market

    OpenAIRE

    Bocquillon, Grégoire; Ekallam, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: Consumer interest and demand for healthy and ecologically produced local food has led to a high market demand that local production cannot meet. Product attributes of perishability and short life cycles ensure that even local supply chains are challenging to manage. This increases potential for risks occurrence in an Organic Food Supply Chain (OFSC) especially with unreliable supply of products. Small and established food retailers import organic food products from across...

  13. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  14. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  15. Iran Mortality and Measures of Risk: Rankings for Public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalabaf-Sabaghi, M

    2010-01-01

    Background: This paper offers mortality risk rankings for Iranian mortality data. It extends methods to include mixed cohorts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications. Methods: The methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dynamics. The specification is presented and compared with existing literature. Results: Our findings confirm literature results in the re-ordering that takes place when different risk measures are used. In addition, we find there is consistency in risk rankings between 1999 and 2000 records of Iranian mortality data. Thus, these risk measures are stable, robust across time and relay risk information consistently. Conclusions: There are considerable implications in adopting particular risk measures for public policy. However, given properties of risk measures discussed here, it is clear that policy makers can select relevant risk measures depending on their priorities. PMID:23112989

  16. Mitigation of Natural Hazards and Disasters. International Perspectives. Improving Access to Water Resources through Rainwater Harvesting as A Mitigation Measure. The Case of the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Melo Branco, A.; Suassuna, J.; Adler Vainsencher, S. [Independent Consultant, Rua Cardeal Arcoverde, 100/701, Gracas, Recife, Pernambuco (Brazil)

    2005-07-15

    This paper focuses on the importance of rainwater harvesting to mitigate the scarcity of water in the semi-arid region of Brazil. It is a case study about the Million Cisterns Project, an initiative developed by NGOs with the support of Brazilian Federal Government Institutions and international funding organizations. The project is innovative in a series of ways when compared to mitigation measures previously implemented by the government. Instead of focussing on short-term, top-down, palliative measures based on the construction of dams and wells, it focuses on low cost, bottom-up, long-term measures and, most importantly, it involves an educational component. Thus, the provision of water is closely related to the empowerment of the most destitute population and this leads to the sustainability of the actions. The case study serves to illustrate the relevance of the partnership between grassroots organizations and governmental institutions in the context of mitigation.

  17. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  18. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  19. Mitigating the health risks of dining out: the need for standardized portion sizes in restaurants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Deborah A; Story, Mary

    2014-04-01

    Because restaurants routinely serve food with more calories than people need, dining out represents a risk factor for overweight, obesity, and other diet-related chronic diseases. Most people lack the capacity to judge the caloric content of food and there is limited evidence that people make use of calorie-labeling information when it is available. Standardized portion sizes would not preclude people from eating as much as they want, but would make the amount they are getting fully transparent. We describe the potential benefits and means of implementing a system of standardized portion sizes that might facilitate a healthier diet among the US population.

  20. Spatial risk measures and applications to max-stable processes

    OpenAIRE

    Koch, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    The risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for both the authorities and the insurance industry. This paper concerns risk measures in a spatial setting, in order to introduce the spatial features of damages stemming from environmental events in the measure of the risk. We develop a new concept of spatial risk measure, based on the spatially aggregated loss over the region of interest, and propose an adapted set of axioms for these spatial risk measures. These axioms quanti...

  1. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  2. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann; Hartmann, Nanna Isabella Bloch;

    2009-01-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide....... Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other...

  3. Risk security and soil loss mitigation: the EU case study of the Sufalnet Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Rigillo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Former and abandoned landfills represent a good opportunity for producing new impervious surfaces for the urban environment, contrasting soil loss (specially the agricultural one and improving the recovery of brownfield. From such perspective, landfill redevelopment could be intended as the beginning of a new life cycle for the site, corresponding to a kick off action for achieving environmental and socio-economic development. This is the purpose of the Sufalnet Project (Sustainable Use of Former and Abandoned Landfill that defines a new approach for landfill redevelopment in form of model strategy by which reducing both the risk of the project failure and of the environmental pollution. Model strategy acts as cultural device for managing redevelop- ment process and its complexity.

  4. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  5. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain

  6. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  7. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stöβlein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  8. Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

    2014-12-01

    With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

  9. Integrated Climate Change and Threatened Bird Population Modeling to Mitigate Operations Risks on Florida Military Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    The integrated modeling and management framework developed in this study can be generalized to other coastal facilities and environmental... Nourishment , Exclosures, and Predator Management) have benefits worthy of investigation. In the following section we introduce the location of study , bird...m SLR as well as the No Action and Beach Nourishment scenarios. For this measure, cells throughout the study site with a habitat suitability equal

  10. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.; Granby, Kit

    2014-01-01

    Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes...... of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation...

  11. Analysis on the Capacity Building Efforts for Mitigating Volcanic Risks during 2010 Eruption of Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SARI BAHAGIARTI KUSUMAYUDHA

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes on the World erupted again during October to November 2010. Its climax activities happened on 5th November at 00.10 pm, with different type of eruption from Mount Merapi of last 50 years. Ordinary, Mount Merapi activity starts from lava dome development, followed by dome collapse to create pyroclastic flow. This specific character of eruption is called Merapi type. The pyroclastic flows at that time killed 341 people and buried many villages on the southeastern slope, while the secondary hazard of lahar destroyed many other human settlements and infrastructures on the western slope of the volcano. Actually, capacity building program in the areas of around Mount Merapi has been established since more than 15 years ago. In most villages, there are community associations that well trained on volcanic hazard mitigation and early warning system. The association name is Association of Mountains Belt of Merapi. Map of Mount Merapi hazards was also already set by the Center of Volcanology and Geologic Disaster Mitigation. Unfortunately, human are not able to order the nature. The character of Mount Merapi eruption in the year 2010 was inconsistent. There was much higher gas pressure, much longer distant of pyroclastic flow, and much greater volume of volcanic material poured from the crater. This made people and stake holders very astonished in handling the evacuation. However, a socio-cultural factor in this respect is that the local people and agriculturists view Mount Merapi as a God which gives them fertile soil and water for agriculture and are reluctant to move away even under an impending threat of a volcanic hazard. This mind-set of people is a challenge in capacity building as the people prefer in-situ protective measures rather than moving away.

  12. Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, T.G.; Dudney, C.S.; Monar, K.P.; Landguth, D.C.; Wilson, D.L.; Hawthorne, A.R.; Hubbard, L.M.; Gadsby, K.J.; Bohac, D.L.; Decker, C.A.

    1987-12-01

    A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs.

  13. Mitigation measures to contain the environmental impact of urban areas: a bibliographic review moving from the life cycle approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belussi, Lorenzo; Barozzi, Benedetta

    2015-12-01

    The global environmental impact of urban areas has greatly increased over the years, due to the growth of urbanisation and the associated increase in management costs. There are several measures aimed at mitigating this impact that affect in different ways the environmental, economic and societal spheres. This article has analysed a selection of different mitigation measures, related to the built environment, according to the life cycle approach, aimed at identifying the procedural features chosen by the different authors and defining a common way to deal with this issue. In particular, all the individual single steps of a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing of the different studies are analysed and the results of the individual measures are highlighted. The analysis has shown how the scientific literature is mainly focused on the evaluation of the impact of technological solutions related to individual buildings (cool/green roof). Less interest is shown in the solutions for urban areas, while, as far as the impact on greenhouse gas emissions is concerned, some studies are shifting the target to a global scale. Due to the accuracy whereby the calculation of the impact indicators deals with and structures the life cycle methods, opportunities to compare studies developed by different authors are quite rare and hard to find. Hence the need to find a simple, intuitive and flexible scheme to combine some of the most useful results of the bibliographical studies, in a comparative outline of different technological solutions, which can support the decision-making phase through a rough assessment.

  14. Groundwater and urbanisation, risks and mitigation: The case for the city of Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapani, B. S.

    The City of Windhoek is underlain by the Kuiseb Schist, locally known as the “Windhoek Schist” and amphibolites. In the low-lying parts of the Windhoek valley, gravels and sands are present. The Windhoek schist has several lithologies, dominated by garnet-muscovite-chlorite-biotite schist, with distinctive cleavage. This pervasive cleavage renders the underlying lithology permeable to fluids percolating from the surface into the aquifer. Other minor lithologies are trachytes, metarhyolites and quartzites found to the east of the city. The amphibolite is part of the Matchless belt, and traverses the city in a NE-SW fashion. When weathered, it forms a perfect aquiclude. North-south and northeast-southwest trending faults with a few splays cut across the Kuiseb Schist. The faults play a significant role in increasing the fracture density of the fissile schist. The faults are the major links that form channels between the surface and the aquifer below. The city of Windhoek uses the aquifer both as a source of fresh water and as a storage facility. The recharge areas of the aquifer lie to the east and south- to southeast of the city in the vicinity of the suburb of Kleine Kuppe. The soil horizon over the Windhoek schist is very shallow and most buildings are built directly on bedrock. The thin soil horizon makes the aquifer prone to pollution, caused either by accidents such as spills or by carelessness due to unsupervised dumping. The fissility and fracture density of the schist imply that leakage of surface waters, phenols, septic-tank spills, sewer-bursts, chemical and industrial contaminants and other such materials can reach the aquifer in unusually high rainfall years. The effects of fuels and oils are much more adverse, as they may remain in soils for long periods. The rapid urbanization and building of informal settlements without sewage reticulation has increased the risk of pollution to the Windhoek aquifer. The close monitoring of sewage pipes, filling

  15. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    CERN Document Server

    Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

    2014-01-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

  16. Heat stress and vitamin E in diets for broilers as a mitigating measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Santos Dalólio

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This review aimed to identify the importance of vitamin E dietary supplementation to broilers subjected to heat stress in relation to metabolism, growth performance and quality of animal products and its effects on immune system. Vitamin E is the concentration of tocopherol and tocotrienol, which can be found in natural or synthetic form. This vitamin is essential for the integrity of reproductive, muscular, circulatory, nervous and immune systems of the animals. In order to reduce the harmful effects of high temperatures in poultry production, vitamin E supplementation is a viable alternative for the sector. Some studies indicate its potential antioxidant effect able to modulate inflammatory responses and physiological adjustments to mitigate the undesirable effects of exposure of broilers to high temperatures. Moreover, it has been found increased viability of animals due to the greater activation of the immune system, and improved quality of animal products given to the deposition in tissues with consequent nutritional enrichment of meat products.

  17. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)

    2013-08-08

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ∼20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.

  18. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.

    2013-08-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ˜20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m3.

  19. NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaz K. Maheshwari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

  20. Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

    2007-07-01

    The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

  1. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall

  2. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences, respe

  3. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  4. Equal graph partitioning on estimated infection network as an effective epidemic mitigation measure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Hadidjojo

    Full Text Available Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics.

  5. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although

  6. Cash Sub-additive Risk Measures and Interest Rate Ambiguity

    OpenAIRE

    El Karoui, Nicole; Ravanelli, Claudia

    2007-01-01

    A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, non financial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub-additive axiom to preserve the original difference between the numeraire of the current reserve amounts and future positions. Consequently, cash sub-additive risk measures can model stochastic and/or ambiguous interest rates or defaultable contingent claims. Practical exampl...

  7. How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peste, Filipa, E-mail: filipapeste@gmail.com [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Paula, Anabela [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Luís P. da [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); MARE and CEF, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra (Portugal); Bernardino, Joana; Pereira, Pedro [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Mascarenhas, Miguel [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Costa, Hugo [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Vieira, José; Bastos, Carlos [Department of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics / IEETA, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Fonseca, Carlos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Maria João Ramos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); PPGBAN, Department of Zoology, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); PPGEC, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil)

    2015-02-15

    Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings.

  8. Traffic related air pollution : spatial variation, health effects and mitigation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkema, M.B.A.

    2011-01-01

    Air pollution is probably the most intensely studied field in today’s environmental health research. The extensive body of literature on health effects associated with air pollution exposure has lead to prioritization of air pollution as public health risk factor and air quality regulations worldwid

  9. Study on risk measurement about ammunition-rocket system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gu Xiaohui; Zhao Youshou

    2005-01-01

    Modern ammunition-rocket system is a complicated multidisciplinary system. During its development,undetermined factors will bring many risks. This paper elaborates the importance of risk analysis approach to ammunition-rocket system development and analyses various methods of risk analysis and estimation. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, the risk measurement function with characteristics of risk preference is given provided that the risk preference characteristic of behavior maker is risk neutral of fixed constant. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk.Taking anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the paper verifies the efficiency of the method and shows that it has a scientific and practical value.

  10. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    2014-01-01

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk compensat

  11. Navy Force Structure: Sustainable Plan and Comprehensive Assessment Needed to Mitigate Long-Term Risks to Ships Assigned to Overseas Homeports

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    surface combatant tailored for land attack and littoral warfare. The Navy plans to build three of these ships and estimates initial operating...homeported in Rota, Spain; however, it has not determined how—or whether—it will apply a more sustainable schedule to its 36 surface and amphibious ships...NAVY FORCE STRUCTURE Sustainable Plan and Comprehensive Assessment Needed to Mitigate Long-Term Risks to Ships

  12. Allocation of risk capital based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengli Zheng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The potential of diversified portfolio leads to the risk capital allocation problem. There are many kinds of methods or rules to allocate risk capital.  However, they have flaws, such as non-continuity, unfairness. In order to get a better method, we propose a new risk measure to be the base of risk capital allocation rule. Design/methodology/approach: We proposed two kinds of allocation methods: one is marginal risk contribution based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure(IE, the other one is to combine the minimal excess allocation(EBA principle and IE into risk capital allocation. The iso-entropic coherent risk measure has many advantages over others; it is continuous and more powerful in distinguishing risks, consistent with higher-order stochastic dominances than other risk measures. And EBA is consistent with the amount of risk, which means fairness for risk capital allocation. Findings: Through cases, simulations and empirical application, it shows that these two allocation rules satisfy some good properties, can be more efficient, more precise and fairer. And the EBA based on IE may be the better one. Research limitations/implications: However, there are some problems still open. One is how to treat the negative value of allocation. Second is that the consistence between the allocated risk capital and the amount of the risk needs to be studied further. Originality/value: A good risk measure is very important for risk capital allocation. We proposed two methods to deal with risk capital allocation based on a new coherent risk measure called iso-entropic risk measure, which is smooth and consistent with higher-order stochastic dominance and has higher resolution of risk. It shows that the risk capital allocation rules based on iso-entropic risk measure are better than the other rules.

  13. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  14. Slope Stability Analysis and Mitigation Measures in the Area of the Sighişoara Medieval Citadel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George-Cătălin Silvaş

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sighişoara Medieval Citadel has a very big importance to the cultural, architectural and historical heritage of Romania. The citadel is situated on the Fortress Hill and it is the only inhabited fortress in Romania. But underneath the beauty of the Citadel lies some problems that only the inhabitants and the authorities know. These problems consist in the presence of the slope instability phenomenon. Throughout the years the slopes of the Fortress Hill, because of a series of factors, became instable. Thus landslides occurred that affected the Citadel fortress walls. There are still some areas of the walls that have never been reconstructed yet. So a slope stability analysis shall show if the slope instability phenomenon is still active and the mitigation measures recommended will stop the activity of this phenomenon.

  15. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    On 28 January 2009, a large rock slide in weathered metamorphic rocks activated at San Benedetto Ullano, triggered by abundant and prolonged rainfall. A detailed geomorphological survey, with periodic inspections during the entire phase of mobilization, was promptly started. Benchmarks were placed along fractures opened on the margins of the landslide, and measurements of surface movements were carried out by a team of volunteers. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers was implemented, combined with a meteorological station. Surveys and monitoring data allowed to implement an embryonic decisional support system (DSS) to handle the emergency [1]. Between February and April, the landslide showed minor displacements, with a retrogressive type of activity distribution, plus a tendency of enlargement towards the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up: the landslide extended for ca. 600 m in length, with an average width of ca. 130 m. Mobilization only involved minor displacements (few decimetres) at the margin of the village, affecting a depth of 15-35 meters along the longitudinal profile. A geological-technical scheme of the slope was drawn, based on data from a set of five exploratory wells, equipped with four inclinometers and one piezometer. Parametric, limit-equilibrium parametric analyses were then performed with respect to fluctuations of the water table: accordingly, the first activation of the landslide was expected - as actually observed - in the central portion of the slope when groundwater table approaches the surface [2]. Thanks to the DSS, further activations occurred in the following years could be properly managed by the Major through closing of roads and evacuation of houses. In fact, between 31 January and 1 February 2010, again due to abundant rainfall, the beginning of a new phase of mobilization was announced by the monitoring network. On 10 February, new mitigation measures were issued; on 11 February, slope

  16. Risk Measures for Autocorrelated Hedge Fund Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Di Cesare (Antonio); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractStandard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds because of serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean, variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Following their lead, adjusted downside and glo

  17. Iran Mortality and Measures of Risk: Rankings for Public policy

    OpenAIRE

    M Aalabaf-Sabaghi

    2010-01-01

    "nBackground: This paper offers mortality risk rankings for Iranian mortality data. It extends methods to include mixed co­horts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications."nMethods: The methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dy­nam­ics. The specification is presented and compared with existing literature."nResults: Our findings...

  18. Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

    2013-06-01

    The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve

  19. Risk-adjusted performance measures and implied risk-attitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plantinga, Auke; Groot, Sebastiaan de

    2001-01-01

    In this article we study the relation between performance measures and preferences functions. In particular, we examine to what extent performance measures can be used as alternatives for preference functions. We study the Sharpe ratio, Sharpe’s alpha, the expected return measure, the Sortino ratio,

  20. Iran Mortality and Measures of Risk: Rankings for Public policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Aalabaf-Sabaghi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available "nBackground: This paper offers mortality risk rankings for Iranian mortality data. It extends methods to include mixed co­horts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications."nMethods: The methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dy­nam­ics. The specification is presented and compared with existing literature."nResults: Our findings confirm literature results in the re-ordering that takes place when different risk measures are used. In ad­di­tion, we find there is consistency in risk rankings between 1999 and 2000 records of Iranian mortality data.  Thus, these risk measures are stable, robust across time and relay risk information consistently."nConclusions: There are considerable implications in adopting particular risk measures for public policy. However, given prop­er­ties of risk measures discussed here, it is clear that policy makers can select relevant risk measures depending on their pri­ori­ties.

  1. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  3. Differentiating causes for erosion at the catchment scale: do soil conservation measures mitigate weather dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barneveld, Robert; Greipsland, Inga

    2016-04-01

    The efficacy of most measures to control soil loss is well established at the field or plot scale. Less well documented are the changes in hydrological behaviour and sediment production at the scale of the (small) catchment. In Norway, incentives to reduce tillage have been in place for over decades. However, even long time (20 years) discharge monitoring of a series of small catchments does not show a clear effect of the application of conservation measures. This research hypothesizes that the effect of weather conditions for a 4.2 km2 catchment in southeastern Norway outweighs the effect of conservation measures in the time series on runoff and sediment load. To test this, it was assumed that trends and changes in soil loss E over time are the product of an agromic index C, precipitation P and rainfall erosivity R. The values of C were calculated based on extensive farm records, covering every tillage operation for every field in the catchment for the period of investigation. Runoff and sediment load records were used to parameterise and test different correlative models. In order to quantify the effect of topography on the degree to which conservations measures reduce soil loss at catchment level, a spatially distributed connectivity index was calculated and multiplied with C. Calculations were carried out for a 10 year period, in monthly time steps. The following statistical models proved the most promising to correlate sediment load to precipitation and agronomic practice. Et=a \\cdot Ptb \\cdot Pt-1c \\cdot Ctd Et=a \\cdot Rtb \\cdot Pt-1c \\cdot Ctd where Pt-1c, the precipition in the prior month, is a proxy indicator for antecedent moisture conditions. The results show that precipitation dynamics outweigh the effect of soil conservation measures for this typical agricultural catchment. It also shows that the inclusion of a hydrological connectivity index improves the quantification of the effect of soil conservation measures on the catchment scale.

  4. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    on the value of the uncertain parameters. In this case, a problem reformulation is needed to properly define the optimization problem. In this paper we describe the concept of risk and we explore how to handle the risk by using appropriate risk measures. We provide a review on various risk measures reporting...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk.......In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values depending...

  5. Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furnish, M.D.; Boslough, M.B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gray, G.T. III [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Remo, J.L. [Quantametrics, Inc., St. James, NY (United States)

    1994-07-01

    We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2--20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

  6. Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furnish, M. D.; Boslough, M. B.; Gray, G. T., III; Remo, J. L.

    We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2-20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

  7. PEMODELAN OPTIMASI MITIGASI RISIKO RANTAI PASOK PRODUK/KOMODITAS JAGUNG Optimization Model Of Corn Supply Chain Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suharjito Suharjito

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Besides more complexes, the agricultural product supply chain also was probabilistic, dynamic and higher dependencies. This happened because of the agricultural product was easy broken, the process of planting, the growth and the harvesting depended the season, the yield had variety form and measurement, and the agricultural product was bulky so that the agricultural product was difficult to be handled. The height of the dependency level and the complexity from the supply chain network of the agricultural product made this chain to be more susceptible to the disturbance. The risk of failure for the supply chain could be happen internally (the relations between the organization and the network of the supplier and externally (between the network of the supplier and its environment. Therefore, the needs for supply chain risk management to avoid a result that can continuously occur at any point in the supply network. The purpose of this study was to describe a model of evaluation and risk management supply chain of agricultural products. Model could identify risks of every level of supply chain and provide solutions that can be done to minimize them. The index value of risk on farm level was 26 % higher than the risk at the level of collector (8.78 % and distributors (8.31 %. The model can optimize farmers’ planting schedules to reduce supply risk and price, while also optimizing the selection of suppliers at the level of collectors and distributors with the consideration of minimizing risk and optimizing profits.   Keywords: Risk evaluation, supply chain management, corn supply risk commodity   ABSTRAK   Selain lebih kompleks, rantai pasok produk pertanian juga bersifat probabilistik, dinamis dan kebergantungan yang tinggi. Hal ini terjadi karena produk pertanian bersifat mudah rusak, proses penanaman, pertumbuhan dan pemanenan tergantung musim, hasil panen memiliki bentuk dan ukuran yang bervariasi, dan produk pertanian bersifat kamba

  8. Measuring the clustering of photometric quasars through blind mitigation of systematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leistedt, Boris; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Roth, Nina

    2014-05-01

    We present accurate measurements of the large-scale clustering of photometric quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. These results, detailed in Leistedt & Peiris (2014), rely on a novel technique to identify and treat systematics when measuring angular power spectra, using null-tests and analytical marginalisation. This approach can be used to maximise the extraction of information from current and future galaxy or quasar surveys. For example, it enables to robustly constrain primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), which modifies the bias of galaxies and quasars on large scales - the most sensitive to observational systematics. The constraints on PNG obtained with the quasar power spectra are detailed in Leistedt, Peiris & Roth (2014); these are the most stringent constraints to date obtained with a single tracer of the large-scale structure.

  9. Impact and effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies on the insurability of nanomaterial production: evidences from industrial case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Enrico; Murphy, Finbarr; Poland, Craig A; Mullins, Martin; Costa, Anna L; McAlea, Eamonn; Tran, Lang; Tofail, Syed A M

    2015-01-01

    Workers involved in producing nanomaterials or using nanomaterials in manufacturing plants are likely to have earlier and higher exposure to manufactured/engineered nanomaterials (ENM) than the general population. This is because both the volume handled and the probability of the effluence of 'free' nanoparticles from the handled volume are much higher during a production process than at any other stage in the lifecycle of nanomaterials and nanotechnology-enabled products. Risk assessment (RA) techniques using control banding (CB) as a framework for risk transfer represents a robust theory but further progress on implementing the model is required so that risk can be transferred to insurance companies. Following a review of RA in general and hazard measurement in particular, we subject a Structural Alert Scheme methodology to three industrial case studies using ZrO2 , TiO2 , and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT). The materials are tested in a pristine state and in a remediated (coated) state, and the respective emission and hazard rates are tested alongside the material performance as originally designed. To our knowledge, this is the first such implementation of a CB RA in conjunction with an ENM performance test and offers both manufacturers and underwriters an insight into future applications.

  10. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde exposure mitigation in US residences: In-home measurements of ventilation control and source control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hult, Erin L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Willem, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Phillip N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hotchi, Toshifumi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Russell, Marion L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Singer, Brett C. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Measurements were taken in new US residences to assess the extent to which ventilation and source control can mitigate formaldehyde exposure. Increasing ventilation consistently lowered indoor formaldehyde concentrations. However, at a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h-1, increasing ventilation was up to 60% less effective than would be predicted if the emission rate were constant. This is consistent with formaldehyde emission rates decreasing as air concentrations increase, as observed in chamber studies. In contrast, measurements suggest acetaldehyde emission was independent of ventilation rate. To evaluate the effectiveness of source control, formaldehyde concentrations were measured in Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certified/Indoor airPLUS homes constructed with materials certified to have low emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC). At a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h-1, and adjusting for home age, temperature and relative humidity, formaldehyde concentrations in homes built with low-VOC materials were 42% lower on average than in reference new homes with conventional building materials. Without adjustment, concentrations were 27% lower in the low-VOC homes. The mean and standard deviation of formaldehyde concentration were 33 μg m-3 and 22 μg m-3 for low-VOC homes and 45 μg m-3 and 30 μg m-3 for conventional.

  11. Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postek, K.S.; den Hertog, D.; Melenberg, B.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study distributionally robust constraints on risk measures (such as standard deviation less the mean, Conditional Value-at-Risk, Entropic Value-at-Risk) of decision-dependent random variables. The uncertainty sets for the discrete probability distributions are defined using statisti

  12. Resonance Frequency of Optical Microbubble Resonators: Direct Measurements and Mitigation of Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosci, Alessandro; Berneschi, Simone; Giannetti, Ambra; Farnesi, Daniele; Cosi, Franco; Baldini, Francesco; Nunzi Conti, Gualtiero; Soria, Silvia; Barucci, Andrea; Righini, Giancarlo; Pelli, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    This work shows the improvements in the sensing capabilities and precision of an Optical Microbubble Resonator due to the introduction of an encaging poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) box. A frequency fluctuation parameter σ was defined as a score of resonance stability and was evaluated in the presence and absence of the encaging system and in the case of air- or water-filling of the cavity. Furthermore, the noise interference introduced by the peristaltic and the syringe pumping system was studied. The measurements showed a reduction of σ in the presence of the encaging PMMA box and when the syringe pump was used as flowing system. PMID:27589761

  13. Advanced Receiver Design for Mitigating Multiple RF Impairments in OFDM Systems: Algorithms and RF Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Kiayani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct-conversion architecture-based orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM systems are troubled by impairments such as in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q imbalance and carrier frequency offset (CFO. These impairments are unavoidable in any practical implementation and severely degrade the obtainable link performance. In this contribution, we study the joint impact of frequency-selective I/Q imbalance at both transmitter and receiver together with channel distortions and CFO error. Two estimation and compensation structures based on different pilot patterns are proposed for coping with such impairments. The first structure is based on preamble pilot pattern while the second one assumes a sparse pilot pattern. The proposed estimation/compensation structures are able to separate the individual impairments, which are then compensated in the reverse order of their appearance at the receiver. We present time-domain estimation and compensation algorithms for receiver I/Q imbalance and CFO and propose low-complexity algorithms for the compensation of channel distortions and transmitter IQ imbalance. The performance of the compensation algorithms is investigated with computer simulations as well as with practical radio frequency (RF measurements. The performance results indicate that the proposed techniques provide close to the ideal performance both in simulations and measurements.

  14. Mitigation measures for chromium-VI contaminated groundwater - The role of endophytic bacteria in rhizofiltration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitroula, Helen; Syranidou, Evdokia; Manousaki, Eleni; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Karatzas, George P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

    2015-01-08

    A constructed wetland pilot with Juncus acutus L. plants was investigated for its rhizofiltration efficiency in treating Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater. Measurements of Cr(VI) and total Cr were performed to estimate the rate of removal. In addition, Cr concentration in plant tissues was measured and the role of endophytic bacteria on plant's tolerance to Cr(VI) toxicity was investigated. The results support that J. acutus is able to rhizofiltrate Cr(VI) from contaminated water with up to 140μg/L while Cr content analysis in plant tissues revealed that the majority of Cr was accumulated by the plants. Moreover, two leaf (Acidovorax sp. strain U3 and Ralstonia sp. strain U36) isolated endophytic bacteria were found to tolerated 100mg/L Cr(VI) while nine root isolates showed resistance to 500mg/L Cr(VI). The endophytic bacteria Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 and Ochrobactrum sp. strain R24 were chosen for Cr(VI) reduction assays. All four strains exhibited a strong potential to reduce Cr(VI) to Cr(III) aerobically. Among them Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 was found able to completely reduced 100mg/L Cr(VI) after 150h of incubation. These results suggest that J. acutus is an excellent choice for CWs whose function is the removal of Cr(VI) from contaminated groundwater for subsequent use in crop irrigation.

  15. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  16. Review of Offshore Wind Farm Impact Monitoring and Mitigation with Regard to Marine Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfuss, Ursula K; Sparling, Carol E; Arnot, Charlie; Judd, Adrian; Coyle, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring and mitigation reports from 19 UK and 9 other European Union (EU) offshore wind farm (OWF) developments were reviewed, providing a synthesis of the evidence associated with the observed environmental impact on marine mammals. UK licensing conditions were largely concerned with mitigation measures reducing the risk of physical and auditory injury from pile driving. At the other EU sites, impact monitoring was conducted along with mitigation measures. Noise-mitigation measures were developed and tested in UK and German waters in German government-financed projects. We highlight some of the review's findings and lessons learned with regard to noise impact on marine mammals.

  17. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can deli...

  18. ESTIMATION OF RISK NEUTRAL MEASURE FOR POLISH STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Kliber

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal distributions. The parameters of the distributions are estimated by minimizing the sum of squares of pricing errors. Obtained results are then compared with the model based on a single lognormal distribution. As an example we consider changes in risk neutral distribution at the beginning of March 2014, after the outbreak of political crisis in the Crimea.

  19. Haze, public health and mitigation measures in China: A review of the current evidence for further policy response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jinghong; Woodward, Alistair; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kovats, Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Li, Liping; Xu, Lei; Li, Jing; Yang, Jun; Li, Jing; Cao, Lina; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Liu, Qiyong

    2017-02-01

    With rapid economic development, China has been plagued by choking air pollution in recent years, and the frequent occurrence of haze episodes has caused widespread public concern. The purpose of this study is to describe the sources and formation of haze, summarize the mitigation measures in force, review the relationship between haze pollution and public health, and to discuss the challenges, potential research directions and policy options. Haze pollution has both natural and man-made causes, though it is anthropogenic sources that are the major contributors. Accumulation of air pollutants, secondary formation of aerosols, stagnant meteorological conditions, and trans-boundary transportation of pollutants are the principal causes driving the formation and evolution of haze. In China, haze includes gaseous pollutants and fine particles, of which PM2.5 is the dominant component. Short and long-term exposure to haze pollution are associated with a range of negative health outcomes, including respiratory diseases, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, mental health problems, lung cancer and premature death. China has paid increasing attention to the improvement of air quality, and has introduced action plans and policies to tackle pollution, but many interventions have only temporary effects. There may be fierce resistance from industry groups and some government agencies, and often it is challenging to enforce relevant control measures and laws. We discuss the potential policy options for prevention, the need for wider public dialogue and the implications for scientific research.

  20. Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

    2014-05-01

    Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest

  1. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  2. Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kant, A.

    1996-12-31

    The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).

  3. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R.J.A. Laeven

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the Esscher

  4. A Systems Engineering Process for Selecting Technologies to Mitigate the Risk of Operating Rotorcraft in Degraded Visual Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Rotorcraft in Degraded Visual Environments 6. AUTHOR(S) T.A. Dellert, C.C. Bivens, S. Balestrini-Robinson, PhD., J.M. Zentner, Ph.D. and IVl.D. Hopkins 3...their ability to mitigate the gaps. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Degraded Visual Environment; Design of Experiments, Functional Needs Analysis, Usable /cue...Environment, Systems Engineering, Pilot Vehicle Interface, Rotorcraft operations. Brownout, Reduced Visibility, Handling Qualities, Flight Controls

  5. Studies on nursing risks and measures of clinical medication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Min; Bai, Jie; Huang, Jie

    2015-09-01

    To investigate the cause analysis of clinical medication nursing risks and propose relevant nursing measures, so as to control and reduce the clinical nursing risks and reach the physical and mental safety of patients and nurses. Clinical nursing risk events with 30 cases in TCM Hospital of Zhengzhou City from June 2010 to April 2012 were underwent statistical analyses. The risk of medication error ranked the first in the direct reasons of nursing risks, accounting for a higher ratio. Moreover, the reasons of nursing risks were also involved in nonstandard operation, disease observation and other relative factors. Nurses must fully understand the relative factors of medication nursing risks, regarding the patients as their own family and always permeating the consciousness of nursing risks into the working process.

  6. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

  7. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhang Liao

    Full Text Available Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C. We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests. Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1 in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years, stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen, tree species origin (native vs. exotic of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt, and study regions (tropic vs. temperate. The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  8. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-05-27

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  9. Natural Hazards and Mitigation Measures in USA%美国的自然灾害和防灾减灾

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴佳尔

    2009-01-01

    美国是一个自然灾害多发国家,整个西部、中部和东部是地震活跃地区,南部沿海地区遭受飓风袭击,干旱和洪水也非常严重.由于对公共安全的重视,许多自然灾害并未造成严重的人员伤害.例如,1994年北加州地震袭击了人口稠密的洛杉矶地区,人员伤亡仅61人.文章讨论了美国的自然灾害,并认为长期的防灾工作是非常必要的.%Natural disasters frequently happers in U.S.A.,frequent earthquakes in the whole western, central and eastern pant, hurricanes in the costal area in the south, and serious drought and floods. Because public security was paid great attention to,many to natural disasters didit cause heary casualties. For example, 61 died in the northern califoria earthquake in 1994 which atlacked populous Los Angeles.This paper discusses the presence of natural hazards in the US and the response measures that the author believes are keys to the long-term hazard mitigation.

  10. Liquidity risk meets economic capital and RAROC: a framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, Kolja

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenar

  11. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Francesco Monitillo; Marta Leone; Caterina Rizzo; Andrea Passantino; Massimo Iacoviello

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave(QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice.

  12. An index of risk as a measure of biodiversity conservation achieved through land reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Susan; Price, Robbie; Stephens, R T Theo

    2008-02-01

    We measured the net progress of land reform in achieving a national policy goal for biodiversity conservation in the context of ongoing clearing of native vegetation and additions of land to a highly nonrepresentative (residual) reserve network, interior South Island, New Zealand. We used systematic conservation-planning approaches to develop a spatially explicit index of risk of biodiversity loss (RBL). The index incorporated information from national data sets that describe New Zealand's remaining indigenous land cover, legal protection, and land environments and modeled risk to biodiversity on the basis of stated assumptions about the effects of past habitat loss and legal protection. The index identified irreplaceable and vulnerable native habitats in lowland environments as the most at risk of biodiversity loss, and risk was correlated with the density of threatened plant records. To measure achievement, we used changes in the index that reflected gains made and opportunity costs incurred by legal protection and privatization. Application of the index to measure the difference made by land reform showed it had caused a net increase in the risk of biodiversity loss because most land vulnerable to habitat modification and rich in threatened plant species was privatized and land at least risk of biodiversity loss was protected. The application revealed that new high-elevation reserves did little to mitigate biodiversity decline, that privatization of low-elevation land further jeopardized the most vulnerable biodiversity in lowland native habitats, and that outcomes of land reform for biodiversity deteriorated over time. Further development of robust achievement measures is needed to encourage more accountable biodiversity conservation decisions.

  13. Compensation in Flood Risk Management with a Focus on Shifts in Compensation Regimes Regarding Prevention, Mitigation and Disaster Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willemijn van Doorn-Hoekveld

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the history of water management and water safety especially, goes back centuries. Compensation of damage caused by lawful acts of an administrative body (no-fault liability is developed mostly in the field of water management and has quite a long history as well. The compensation of no-fault liability in the Netherlands since its introduction has been part of public law and not of civil law. This does not mean that the administration cannot be held liable for wrongful actions, in which case private law is applied. There is a strict distinction between wrongful and lawful acts of the administration: both can cause damage, but the way they are compensated differs: for lawful acts, public law is applied and for wrongful acts civil law (tort law is applied. This article only considers public law, because it is the most important branch of law for the compensation of damage caused in the field of water safety. The field of water safety and flood risk management has seen many new developments, of which integration is the latest one. However, the course of flood risk management tends towards more segmentation of responsibilities. No-fault liability and other questions of compensation are also areas that are developing towards more integration. Assessment of  no-fault liability in the field of water safety management cannot be made without taking into consideration the historical development of the responsibility of the state for water management tasks in general. In this contribution, the author addresses the historical development of responsibilities of the state for water management tasks, recent developments in this area and the system of no-fault liability regarding measures to prevent flooding.

  14. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2015-03-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

  15. Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-20

    classes of statistics. The latter situation is the standard setting of risk-averse stochastic programming; see for example [13, 26]. Due to incomplete ...measures of risk and related quantifiers, and a theorem about connections among such quantifiers under relaxed assumptions. Section 3 defines measures of... Theorem in [26] to the broader class of regular measures defined here and also include additional characterizations of deviation measures and statistics

  16. Partial Cold Treatment of Citrus Fruit for Export Risk Mitigation for Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) as Part of a Systems Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, S D; Kirkman, W; Albertyn, S; Love, C N; Coetzee, J A; Hattingh, V

    2016-08-01

    Some of South Africa's citrus export markets require mandatory postharvest cold treatment of citrus fruit as a phytosanitary risk mitigation treatment for Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). An alternative to this may be partial cold treatment as one of the final steps in a systems approach to mitigate phytosanitary risk. Consequently, the efficacy of such partial cold treatments was evaluated. It was first determined that a 2°C cold treatment was significantly more effective against fourth and fifth instars (the most cold-tolerant instars) than treatments at 3°C and 4°C for a duration of 18 d. Secondly, it was determined that 2°C for 18 d and 1°C for 16 d were similarly effective, but both treatments were significantly more effective than 1°C for 14 d. Mean mortality of fourth and fifth instars treated with 2°C for 18 d in seven replicates from four trials was 99.94%. Finally, it was determined that the inability of the majority of surviving larvae to develop to adulthood would further increase the efficacy of a 2°C for 18 d treatment to 99.96%. Inclusion of reproductive nonviability of survivors increased mortality to 99.99%.

  17. Multi scale risk measurement in electricity market:a wavelet based value at risk approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guu; Sy-Ming; Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity ...

  18. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  19. Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsbottom David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

  20. Participatory assessment of soil erosion severity and performance of mitigation measured using stakeholders' workshops in Koga catchment, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakew, Walle; Baartman, Jantiene; Ritsema, Coen

    2016-04-01

    There has been little effort to systematically document the experiences and perceptions of farmers on soil erosion and soil and water conservation (SWC) even though a wealth of SWC knowledge and information exists, and there is a great demand to access it. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) has largely evolved through local traditional practices than being adopted on basis of scientific evidence. This research aimed to document the experiences of farmers on soil erosion and conservation, and to increase awareness and participation of the local community in SWC. Participatory stakeholders' workshops were undertaken at local level focused on experiences and perceptions of farmers. The workshops included group discussion and field monitoring of sheet erosion indicators, profiles of rills and gullies and impacts of SWC strategies. Systematic descriptions of the status of soil erosion, soil fertility and yield were used to assess the performances of SWC strategies. Results show that farmers were aware of the harmful effects of ongoing soil erosion and impacts of mitigation strategies on their farms. Sheet erosion was found to be the most damaging form of erosion while rill damage was critical on cereal cultivated farms on steep slopes. Farmers perceived that the desired impacts of SWC practices were attained in general: runoff and soil loss rates decreased, while soil fertility and production increased. The performance of SWC measures were found to be highly affected by the design quality and management strategies on the farm. Comparatively graded stone-faced soil bunds revealed maximum desired impacts and were liked by farmers whereas all level bunds caused water logging and traditional ditches begun incising and affected production of cereals. Bund maintenance practices were low and also distracted the stability of bunds. This calls for further improvement of design of SWC technologies and their maintenance. Further research should integrate the local knowledge for

  1. A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastián Becerra; Gregory Claeys; Juan Francisco Martínez

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this work is to construct an appropriate measure of liquidity risk for Chilean banks. There are already several measures of liquidity risk in the literature. Most of these metrics are based on specific assumptions and expert opinion. In order to overcome the potential problems associated with discretionary assumptions, and to exploit the information available, similar to the work of Drehman and Nikolaou (2012), we propose a metric based on the behavior of banks in the procure...

  2. Integrating Usage Stage Risk Measurement Tools in Distributed Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin Alexandru TANASIE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Distributed application features are presented along with associated risks occurring during the development and production stages. Issues raised by incidents catalogued as risks are described. The MERICS software application is presented, being built for user-distributed system interaction analysis and component reliability measurement. The steps taken to accurately describe risks from an end-user scope, based on a comparative system, are shown. The model is implemented using previously-described elements as parameters. The operational impact of analysis is detailed within successive versions of modules composing distributed applications. Risk management decisions are to be based on the analytic database built by applying the above.

  3. Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

  4. Theory and Method of Commercial Bank Credit Risk Measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BeimingXiao; JinlinLi

    2004-01-01

    Calculating and measuring credit risk is the key technique of commercial bank management. International relative achievements mainly include Z and ZETA modelof Altman, Standard&pool external rating system, Moody external rating system, KMV model, CreditMetrics model, CreditRisk model, McKinsey model and so on. Chinese relative achievements mainly includes: credit score method, comprehensive estimating method,discriminative analysis method, artificial neural network method etc. This paper analyzes the relative research achievements of credit risk measurement and the future research trend.

  5. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  6. An Assessment of Nigerian Stakeholders’ the Perception of Environmental Offset as Mitigation Measures and Its’ Implication for Sustainable Industrial Development in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.C. Mmom

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An important tool for sustainable development in any country is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, and an important component of EIA is impact mitigation. In most cases, certain unwanted impacts of development projects are left without mitigation thereby reducing the gains of such developments. Thus, emerging in current literature is the concept of Environmental offset which provides a leeway for residual impacts of development projects. This study therefore assesses the perception and level of application of the environmental offset strategy by EIA Practitioners and other stakeholders in the mitigation of negative environmental impacts of developments in the Niger Delta, Nigeria as that would have significant implication for sustainable development efforts in Nigeria. The study found out that there is negative perception among the host communities about the suitability of offset as mitigation measure. Even though the EIA practitioners considers Environmental offset as a viable option, its adoption has been marred by the misgiving of the local people. This misgiving could be attributed to the long period of neglect and abandonment which has led to abject poverty in the region and loss of confidence in any institutional frameworks. Thus, this study concludes that the drive towards sustainable Development in Nigeria would remain a mirage unless the local people are properly integrated in the scheme of things.

  7. Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

  8. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, RIchard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  9. Managing and Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change: Calling for Evidence-Informed Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Ebi, Kristie; Olsen, Jorn

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Climate change affects many natural and social systems and processes that are essential for life. It disrupts the Earth’s life-support systems that underpin the world’s capacity to supply adequate food and fresh water, and it disturbs the eco-physical buffering against natural disasters. Epidemiologists need to develop and improve research and monitoring programs to better understand the scale and immediacy of the threat of climate change to human health and to act within a much larger and more comprehensive framework. To address one of the greatest environmental issues of our lifetime, the scientific and policy-making communities should work together to formulate evidence-informed public policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to its inevitable impacts in this generation and, more importantly, in future generations to come. PMID:27689449

  10. Nitrous oxide and nitrate concentration in under-drainage from arable fields subject to diffuse pollution mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hama-Aziz, Zanist; Hiscock, Kevin; Adams, Christopher; Reid, Brian

    2016-04-01

    mitigation measure in an agricultural area where high nitrate losses from fields into groundwater or surface water is excessively occurring.

  11. Modelling site-specific N2O emission factors from Austrian agricultural soils for targeted mitigation measures (NitroAustria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amon, Barbara; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kasper, Martina; Foldal, Cecilie; Schiefer, Jasmin; Kitzler, Barbara; Schwarzl, Bettina; Zethner, Gerhard; Anderl, Michael; Sedy, Katrin; Gaugitsch, Helmut; Dersch, Georg; Baumgarten, Andreas; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    community can only profit from NitroAustria, if model developments and results are integrated into the national emission inventory. Trade-offs between different greenhouse gas emissions and other nitrogen losses have to be discussed. The derivation of suitable mitigation options by optimization of common and evaluation of potential management practices for current and future climatic conditions is crucial to minimize threats to the environment while ensuring the long-term productivity and sustainability of agro-ecosystems. From the results gained in NitroAustria we will be able to show potential environmental impacts and propose measures for a policy framework towards climate friendly farming.

  12. Investigation of the impact of climate change on river water temperature: possible mitigation measures using riparian vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Philipp; Trimmel, Heidelinde; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Rauch, Hans Peter; Leidinger, David

    2016-04-01

    Water stream temperature is a relevant factor for water quality since it is an important driver of water oxygen content and in turn also reduces or increases stress on the aquatic fauna. The water temperature of streams is determined by the source and inflow water temperature, by the energy balance at the stream surface and by the hydrological regime of the stream. Main factors driving the energy balance of streams are radiation balance and air temperature which influence the sensitive and latent heat flux. The present study investigates the influence of climate change on water temperature of streams and the potential of riparian vegetation to mitigate its effects. Within the scope of the project BIO_CLIC routine measurements of water temperature at 33 locations alongside the rivers Pinka and Lafnitz were performed from spring 2012 until autumn 2014. In addition meteorological measurements of global shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, wind and air humidity were carried out during this time. For the same time period, data of discharge and water levels of both rivers were provided by the public hydrological office. This time period also includes the heat episode of summer 2013 during which the highest air temperature ever recorded in Austria was reported on 8 August at 40.5°C. In the lower reaches of the river Pinka, at the station Burg the monthly mean water temperature of August 2013 was with more than 22°C, 1°C higher than the mean water temperature of the same period of the previous years. At the same station, the maximum water temperature of 27.1°C was recorded on 29 July, 9 days prior to the air temperature record. Analysis shows that at the downstream stations the main driving parameter is solar radiation whereas at the upstream stations a better correlation between air temperature and water temperature is obtained. The influence of riparian vegetation on water temperature, leading to lower water temperature by shading, is also detectable

  13. Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from animal production systems: synergy between measuring and modelling at different scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenigen, van J.W.; Schils, R.L.M.; Velthof, G.L.; Kuikman, P.J.; Oudendag, D.A.; Oenema, O.

    2008-01-01

    Animal production systems are large and complex sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Emissions from these systems are expected to rise over the coming decades due to the increasing global population and shifting diets, unless appropriate mitigation str

  14. A Tractable Method for Measuring Nanomaterial Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Finbarr; Sheehan, Barry; Mullins, Martin; Bouwmeester, Hans; Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Costa, Anna L.; Das, Rasel; Stone, Vicki; Tofail, Syed A. M.

    2016-11-01

    While control banding has been identified as a suitable framework for the evaluation and the determination of potential human health risks associated with exposure to nanomaterials (NMs), the approach currently lacks any implementation that enjoys widespread support. Large inconsistencies in characterisation data, toxicological measurements and exposure scenarios make it difficult to map and compare the risk associated with NMs based on physicochemical data, concentration and exposure route. Here we demonstrate the use of Bayesian networks as a reliable tool for NM risk estimation. This tool is tractable, accessible and scalable. Most importantly, it captures a broad span of data types, from complete, high quality data sets through to data sets with missing data and/or values with a relatively high spread of probability distribution. The tool is able to learn iteratively in order to further refine forecasts as the quality of data available improves. We demonstrate how this risk measurement approach works on NMs with varying degrees of risk potential, namely, carbon nanotubes, silver and titanium dioxide. The results afford even non-experts an accurate picture of the occupational risk probabilities associated with these NMs and, in doing so, demonstrated how NM risk can be evaluated into a tractable, quantitative risk comparator.

  15. Department of Energy--Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Geothermal Program: Geothermal Risk Mitigation Strategies Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2008-02-15

    An overview of general financial issues for renewable energy investments; geothermal energy investment barriers and risks; and recommendations for incentives and instruments to be considered to stimulate investment in geothermal energy development.

  16. Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

    2016-11-01

    We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

  17. Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

    2016-11-01

    We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

  18. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  19. Predicting health behaviors with an experimental measure of risk preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lisa R; Mellor, Jennifer M

    2008-09-01

    We conduct a large-scale economics experiment paired with a survey to examine the association between individual risk preference and health-related behaviors among adults aged 18-87 years. Risk preference is measured by the lottery choice experiment designed by Holt and Laury [Holt, C.A., Laury, S.K., 2002. Risk aversion and incentive effects. The American Economic Review 92(5), 1644-1655]. Controlling for subject demographic and economic characteristics, we find that risk aversion is negatively and significantly associated with cigarette smoking, heavy drinking, being overweight or obese, and seat belt non-use. In additional specifications, we find that risk aversion is negatively and significantly associated with the likelihood a subject engaged in any of five risky behaviors and the number of risky behaviors reported.

  20. Calculation of Expected Shortfall for Measuring Risk and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎春宁; 余鹏; 黄养新

    2005-01-01

    Expected shortfall(ES) is a new method to measure market risk. In this paper, an example was presented to illustrate that the ES is coherent but value-at-risk(VaR) is not coherent. Three formulas for calculating the ES based on historical simulation method, normal method and GARCH method were derived. Further, a numerical experiment on optimizing portfolio using ES was provided.

  1. Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

  2. Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Voronova

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio’s conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussion about appropriate risk management in the insurance companies.

  3. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  4. A cost–benefit analysis of mitigation options for optimal management of risks posed by flow-like phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narasimhan, Harikrishna; Ferlisi, Settimio; Cascini, Leonardo

    2016-01-01

    for reducing the risks posed by different rainfall-induced flow-like phenomena—which include hyperconcentrated flows, debris flows and landslides on open slopes—in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (located in the Campania region in southern Italy) is then described. As demonstrated through the case study...

  5. Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis ), with suggestions...specific Japanese encephalitis virus (parts of South and Southeast Asia) Meningococcal ( meningitis belt of Africa) Yellow fever (parts of Africa...indicated in certain settings, such as direct contact with sources of avian influenza [39]. DRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS In general, tuberculosis is a

  6. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be

  7. Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

    2012-10-01

    This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

  8. Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goettel, K. A.; Rizzo, A.; Sigrist, D.; Bernard, E. N.

    2011-12-01

    The death total in a major Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunami may be comparable to the Tohoku tsunami - tens of thousands. To date, tsunami risk reduction activities have been almost exclusively hazard mapping and evacuation planning. Reducing deaths in locations where evacuation to high ground is impossible in the short time between ground shaking and arrival of tsunamis requires measures such as vertical evacuation facilities or engineered pathways to safe ground. Yet, very few, if any, such tsunami mitigation projects have been done. In contrast, many tornado safe room and earthquake mitigation projects driven entirely or in largely by life safety have been done with costs in the billions of dollars. The absence of tsunami mitigation measures results from the belief that tsunamis are too infrequent and the costs too high to justify life safety mitigation measures. A simple analysis based on return periods, death rates, and the geographic distribution of high risk areas for these hazards demonstrates that this belief is incorrect: well-engineered tsunami mitigation projects are more cost-effective with higher benefit-cost ratios than almost all tornado or earthquake mitigation projects. Goldfinger's paleoseismic studies of CSZ turbidites indicate return periods for major CSZ tsunamis of about 250-500 years (USGS Prof. Paper 1661-F in press). Tsunami return periods are comparable to those for major earthquakes at a given location in high seismic areas and are much shorter than those for tornados at any location which range from >4,000 to >16,000 years for >EF2 and >EF4 tornadoes, respectively. The average earthquake death rate in the US over the past 100-years is about 1/year, or about 30/year including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The average death rate for tornadoes is about 90/year. For CSZ tsunamis, the estimated average death rate ranges from about 20/year (10,000 every 500 years) to 80/year (20,000 every 250 years). Thus, the long term deaths rates

  9. Lipid parameters for measuring risk of cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.J. Arsenault; S.M. Boekholdt; J.J.P. Kastelein

    2011-01-01

    Besides measuring blood pressure and glucose levels, assessing the lipid spectrum is the method most commonly used to identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as those who are likely to benefit most from lipid-lowering therapy. Although lowering LDL-cholesterol leve

  10. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  11. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  12. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary - API

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  13. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  14. Composition and sources of PM2.5 around the heating periods of 2013 and 2014 in Beijing: Implications for efficient mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hainan; Chen, Jing; Wen, Jiaojiao; Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Xingang

    2016-01-01

    The diurnal variations of the water soluble organic and inorganic components as well as six selected metals in PM2.5 around the heating periods of 2013 and 2014 in Beijing were analyzed in this study to investigate the contributions of secondary aerosols and primary pollutants to PM2.5 and the effects of domestic heating and mitigation measures. The before-heating sampling period in 2014 (from Nov. 1st to Nov. 15th) was characterized with reinforced short-term mitigation measures for the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting. As a result, the average mass concentrations of PM2.5 and most of the measured species except for Cu, Al, and Ca2+ were greatly reduced during the APEC meeting period. The domestic heating activity alone resulted in a 17.7% increase of PM2.5 in 2013, exerting lesser effects on the increase of PM2.5 than before. Water soluble organic carbon was the most abundant water soluble species in PM2.5, followed by NO3-, SO42-, and NH4+ . According to the PMF model calculation, secondary aerosols, coal combustion, biomass/waste burning, traffic related pollution, long-range transport, and fugitive soil and sand dust were identified as the main sources of PM2.5 in Beijing, among which secondary formation of aerosols was the dominant source of PM2.5 during the non-APEC period while biomass/waste burning dominated during the APEC period. As a timely feedback on the effects of the mitigation measures adopted by the government, the results of this study provide knowledge necessary for a sustainable urban management.

  15. Airborne Infectious Agents and Other Pollutants in Automobiles for Domestic Use: Potential Health Impacts and Approaches to Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed A. Sattar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The world total of passenger cars is expected to go from the current one billion to >2.5 billion by 2050. Cars for domestic use account for ~74% of the world’s yearly production of motorized vehicles. In North America, ~80% of the commuters use their own car with another 5.6% travelling as passengers. With the current life-expectancy of 78.6 years, the average North American spends 4.3 years driving a car! This equates to driving 101 minutes/day with a lifetime driving distance of nearly 1.3 million km inside the confined and often shared space of the car with exposure to a mix of potentially harmful pathogens, allergens, endotoxins, particulates, and volatile organics. Such risks may increase in proportion to the unprecedented upsurge in the numbers of family cars globally. Though new technologies may reduce the levels of air pollution from car exhausts and other sources, they are unlikely to impact our in-car exposure to pathogens. Can commercial in-car air decontamination devices reduce the risk from airborne infections and other pollutants? We lack scientifically rigorous protocols to verify the claims of such devices. Here we discuss the essentials of a customized aerobiology facility and test protocols to assess such devices under field-relevant conditions.

  16. Preliminary data on a new opioid risk assessment measure: the Brief Risk Interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Ted; Moore, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment and stratification have become a central issue in prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain. Research to date on various risk screening measures has shown that a clinical interview by an experienced clinician offers superior predictive ability in identifying patients who are more likely to engage in future medication aberrant behavior. The current study represents a pilot study of an interview rating scale that is designed to replicate this clinical assessment. This study compares the predictions of medication aberrant behavior made by the Opioid Risk Tool, the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised, and the new interview rating scale, the Brief Risk Interview (BRI). A sample of 196 patients was assessed by each of the three risk measures and then follow-up data were gathered at 6 months post interview to determine which patients had engaged in medication aberrant behavior and had been discharged from the practice. The BRI shows superior predictive ability in identifying patients who later engage in medication aberrant behavior. Although more study in other settings is needed, these preliminary data suggest that the Brief Risk Interview could be a useful tool for any pain clinician in assessing risk through the use of information gathered in a brief interview.

  17. Monitoring volcanic activity with satellite remote sensing to reduce aviation hazard and mitigate the risk: application to the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic activity across the North Pacific (NOPAC) occurs on a daily basis and as such monitoring needs to occur on a 24 hour, 365 days a year basis. The risk to the local population and aviation traffic is too high for this not to happen. Given the size and remoteness of the NOPAC region, satellite remote sensing has become an invaluable tool to monitor the ground activity from the regions volcanoes as well as observe, detect and analyze the volcanic ash clouds that transverse across the Pacific. Here, we describe the satellite data collection, data analysis, real-time alert/alarm systems, observational database and nearly 20-year archive of both automated and manual observations of volcanic activity. We provide examples of where satellite remote sensing has detected precursory activity at volcanoes, prior to the volcanic eruption, as well as different types of eruptive behavior that can be inferred from the time series data. Additionally, we illustrate how the remote sensing data be used to detect volcanic ash in the atmosphere, with some of the pro's and con's to the method as applied to the NOPAC, and how the data can be used with other volcano monitoring techniques, such as seismic monitoring and infrasound, to provide a more complete understanding of a volcanoes behavior. We focus on several large volcanic events across the region, since our archive started in 1993, and show how the system can detect both these large scale events as well as the smaller in size but higher in frequency type events. It's all about how to reduce the risk, improve scenario planning and situational awareness and at the same time providing the best and most reliable hazard assessment from any volcanic activity.

  18. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  19. Minimising mortality in endangered raptors due to power lines: the importance of spatial aggregation to optimize the application of mitigation measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Guil

    Full Text Available Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos, Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata. Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators.

  20. Minimising mortality in endangered raptors due to power lines: the importance of spatial aggregation to optimize the application of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guil, Francisco; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Gómez, María Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, Angel; Guzmán, José; Oria, Javier; González, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata). Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators.

  1. Minimising Mortality in Endangered Raptors Due to Power Lines: The Importance of Spatial Aggregation to Optimize the Application of Mitigation Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guil, Francisco; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Gómez, María Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, Ángel; Guzmán, José; Oria, Javier; González, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata). Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators. PMID:22140549

  2. The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

  3. Farm nitrogen balances in six European agricultural landscapes – a method for farming system assessment, emission hotspot identification, and mitigation measure evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Tommy; Bienkowski, J.; Bleeker, A.

    2012-01-01

    N balances are a useful indicator for N losses and the potential for improving N management. Significant correlations to N surplus were found, both with ammonia air concentrations and nitrate levels in soils and groundwater, measured during the landscape data collection campaign from 2007......, it was concluded that N-surplus reductions of 25–50 % as compared to the present level were realistic in all landscapes. The implemented N-surplus method was thus effective at comparing and synthesizing results on farm N emissions and the potentials of mitigation options, and is recommended for use in combination...

  4. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  5. Social and structural violence and power relations in mitigating HIV risk of drug-using women in survival sex work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Kate; Kerr, Thomas; Allinott, Shari; Chettiar, Jill; Shoveller, Jean; Tyndall, Mark W

    2008-02-01

    High rates of violence among street-level sex workers have been described across the globe, while in cities across Canada the disappearance and victimization of drug-using women in survival sex work is ongoing. Given the pervasive levels of violence faced by sex workers over the last decades, and extensive harm reduction and HIV prevention efforts operating in Vancouver, Canada, this research aimed to explore the role of social and structural violence and power relations in shaping the HIV risk environment and prevention practices of women in survival sex work. Through a participatory-action research project, a series of focus group discussions were conceptualized and co-facilitated by sex workers, community and research partners with a total of 46 women in early 2006. Based on thematic, content and theoretical analysis, the following key factors were seen to both directly and indirectly mediate women's agency and access to resources, and ability to practice HIV prevention and harm reduction: at the micro-level, boyfriends as pimps and the 'everyday violence' of bad dates; at the meso-level, a lack of safe places to take dates, and adverse impacts of local policing; and at the macro-level, dopesickness and the need to sell sex for drugs. Analysis of the narratives and daily lived experiences of women sex workers highlight the urgent need for a renewed HIV prevention strategy that moves beyond a solely individual-level focus to structural and environmental interventions, including legal reforms, that facilitate 'enabling environments' for HIV prevention.

  6. Decision Support for Mitigating the Risk of Tree Induced Transmission Line Failure in Utility Rights-of-Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H. M.; Camp, A. E.

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility’s (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation’s power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  7. Risk mitigation for children exposed to drugs during gestation: A critical role for animal preclinical behavioral testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucker, Irving

    2017-03-16

    Many drugs with unknown safety profiles are administered to pregnant women, placing their offspring at risk. I assessed whether behavioral outcomes for children exposed during gestation to antidepressants, anxiolytics, anti-seizure, analgesic, anti-nausea and sedative medications can be predicted by more extensive animal studies than are part of the FDA approval process. Human plus rodent data were available for only 8 of 33 CNS-active drugs examined. Similar behavioral and cognitive deficits, including autism and ADHD emerged in human offspring and in animal models of these disorders after exposure to fluoxetine, valproic acid, carbamazepine, phenytoin, phenobarbital and acetaminophen. Rodent data helpful in identifying and predicting adverse effects of prenatal drug exposure in children were first generated many years after drugs were FDA-approved and administered to pregnant women. I recommend that enhanced behavioral testing of rodent offspring exposed to drugs prenatally should begin during preclinical drug evaluation and continue during Phase I clinical trials, with findings communicated to physicians and patients in drug labels.

  8. Decision support for mitigating the risk of tree induced transmission line failure in utility rights-of-way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H M; Camp, A E

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility's (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation's power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  9. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  10. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  11. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  12. Case Study of Risk Mitigation Based on Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) Testing for the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James Mike; Clanton, Stephen Edward

    2004-01-01

    Within the pressurized elements of the International Space Station (ISS), requirements exist to ensure a safe, habitable environment for the crew. In order to provide this environment, thermal control components work in conjunction with software controls to provide heat rejection for subsystem avionics equipment, for the environmental control system and for experiment payloads. It is essential to ISS operations, mission success and crew safety that necessary testing incorporates the extreme conditions to ensure proper performance. This paper provides a general description and methodology applied to thermal related Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) tests for the ISS Node 2 module. A detailed test plan was developed and implemented with two objectives: the first was for risk mitigation of the thermal control algorithms and software qualification, and the second was for data collection which will substantiate thermalhydraulic models of the Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS). Analytical models are utilized to determine on-orbit performance for conditions and scenarios where the simulation of actual on-orbit system performance is limited by test configuration constraints. Node 2 IATCS HSI activities were performed at the Alenia Spazio facility in Torino, Italy with participation from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Alenia Spazio, Jacobs Engineering Sverdrup (JE Sverdrup) and Boeing.

  13. The Curious Case of the PDF Converter that Likes Mozart: Dissecting and Mitigating the Privacy Risk of Personal Cloud Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harkous Hamza

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Third party apps that work on top of personal cloud services, such as Google Drive and Drop-box, require access to the user’s data in order to provide some functionality. Through detailed analysis of a hundred popular Google Drive apps from Google’s Chrome store, we discover that the existing permission model is quite often misused: around two-thirds of analyzed apps are over-privileged, i.e., they access more data than is needed for them to function. In this work, we analyze three different permission models that aim to discourage users from installing over-privileged apps. In experiments with 210 real users, we discover that the most successful permission model is our novel ensemble method that we call Far-reaching Insights. Far-reaching Insights inform the users about the data-driven insights that apps can make about them (e.g., their topics of interest, collaboration and activity patterns etc. Thus, they seek to bridge the gap between what third parties can actually know about users and users’ perception of their privacy leakage. The efficacy of Far-reaching Insights in bridging this gap is demonstrated by our results, as Far-reaching Insights prove to be, on average, twice as effective as the current model in discouraging users from installing over-privileged apps. In an effort to promote general privacy awareness, we deployed PrivySeal, a publicly available privacy-focused app store that uses Far-reaching Insights. Based on the knowledge extracted from data of the store’s users (over 115 gigabytes of Google Drive data from 1440 users with 662 installed apps, we also delineate the ecosystem for 3rd party cloud apps from the standpoint of developers and cloud providers. Finally, we present several general recommendations that can guide other future works in the area of privacy for the cloud. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work that tackles the privacy risk posed by 3rd party apps on cloud platforms in such depth.

  14. Measurement of risk of sexual violence through phallometric testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Richard J

    2009-04-01

    The use of phallometric testing to determine risk of sexual violence is becoming more widely recognized throughout the world. This technique involves the precise measurement of circumferential change in the penis from flaccidity to erection in response to both 'normal' and deviant sexual stimuli. Phallometric testing is the only pure measure of sexual arousal, and unlike other physiological measures such as heart rate and GSR it is not influenced by arousal states such as fear and anger. The current published research compares the phallometric testing profiles of incarcerated sexual offenders with those of incarcerated nonsexual offenders. Specifically, the sexual arousal of 100 convicted rapists, pedophiles, and nonsexual offenders is examined. This research identifies what differentiates these groups and what best predicts risk of sexual aggression. Implications of these results include the possibility of using phallometric testing as a screening tool for those who work with vulnerable populations (e.g., child care workers, teachers). The principal benefit of phallometric testing, however, lies in the identification of those incarcerated men who are at greatest risk to sexually reoffend and who should thus be denied release from jail.

  15. Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kuo, Way

    2012-01-01

    This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems.  Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c

  16. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites.

  17. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  18. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

  19. Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Kagaayi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index. Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models. RESULTS: We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years, and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years. The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73. The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70. Both models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

  20. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  1. Markov decision processes with iterated coherent risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Shanyun; Zhang, Yi

    2014-11-01

    This paper considers a Markov decision process in Borel state and action spaces with the aggregated (or say iterated) coherent risk measure to be minimised. For this problem, we establish the Bellman optimality equation as well as the value and policy iteration algorithms, and show the existence of a deterministic stationary optimal policy. The cost function, while being allowed to be unbounded from below (in the sense that its negative part needs be bounded by some nonnegative real-valued possibly unbounded weight function), can be arbitrarily unbounded from above and possibly infinitely valued.

  2. Spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses and resilience measures in flood risk management: Case study Rafina, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Chiari, Michael; Hübl, Johannes; Maris, Fotis; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2013-04-01

    We will address spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses in flood risk management in the catchment of Rafina, 25 km east of Athens, Greece; and potential measures to reduce damage costs. The evaluation of flood damage losses is relatively advanced. Nevertheless, major problems arise since there are no market prices for the evaluation process available. Moreover, there is particular gap in quantifying the damages and necessary expenditures for the implementation of mitigation measures with respect to flash floods. The key issue is to develop prototypes for assessing flood losses and the impact of mitigation measures on flood resilience by adjusting a vulnerability model and to further develop the method in a Mediterranean region influenced by both, mountain and coastal characteristics of land development. The objective of this study is to create a spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability factors based on a method combining spatially explicit loss data, data on the value of exposed elements at risk, and data on flood intensities. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a flood damage assessment as a function of the process intensity and the degree of loss is presented. It is shown that (1) such relationships for defined object categories are dependent on site-specific and process-specific characteristics, but there is a correlation between process types that have similar characteristics; (2) existing semi-quantitative approaches of vulnerability assessment for elements at risk can be improved based on the proposed quantitative method; and (3) the concept of risk can be enhanced with respect to a standardised and comprehensive implementation by applying the vulnerability functions to be developed within the proposed research. Therefore, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level. The used model is based on a basin scale approach as well as data on elements at risk exposed

  3. Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Trenton W. J.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin L.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C.; Bosch, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

  4. Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?

    OpenAIRE

    Ernst, Cornelia; Stange, Sebastian; Kaserer, Christoph

    2009-01-01

    Market liquidity risk, the difficulty or cost of trading assets in crises, has been recognized as an important factor in risk management. Literature has already proposed several models to include liquidity risk in the standard Value-at-Risk framework. While theoretical comparisons between those models have been conducted, their empirical performance has never been benchmarked. This paper performs comparative back-tests of daily risk forecasts for a large selection of traceable liquidity risk ...

  5. The measure and decision of technical risk in the development of naval vessels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The risks in development of navy vessels were explored. The resources of technical risk in the design and development of vessels were mentioned. It was pointed that technical risk dominated the other risk components. Based on the writers' understanding and experience from risk analysis and risk management to the development of a navy vessel, four measure indexes of technical risk were presented. The decision criteria and the rules corresponding to the indexes were established by the statistic information.

  6. Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

  7. IFKIS a basis for organizational measures in avalanche risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, M.; Etter, H.-J.; Klingler, Ch.; Steiniger, M.; Rhyner, J.; Ammann, W.

    2003-04-01

    The avalanche winter 1999 in Switzerland showed that the combination of protection measures like avalanche barriers, hazard zone mapping, artificial avalanche release and organisational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc.) proved to perform well. However, education as well as information and communication between the involved organizations proved to be a weak link in the crisis management. In the first part of the project IFKIS we developed a modular education and training course program for security responsibles of settlements and roads. In the second part an information system was developed which improves on the one hand the information fluxes between the national center for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local forecasters. On the other hand the communication between the avalanche security services in the communities can be enhanced. During the last two years an information system based on Internet technology has been developed for this purpose. This system allows the transmission of measured data and observations to a central database at SLF and visualization of the data for different users. It also provides the possibility to exchange information on organizational measures like closure of roads, artificial avalanche release etc. on a local and regional scale. This improves the information fluxes and the coordination of safety-measures because all users, although at different places, are on the same information level. Inconsistent safety-measures can be avoided and information and communication concerning avalanche safety becomes much more transparent for all persons involved in hazard management. The training program as well the concept for the information-system are important basics for an efficient avalanche risk management but also for other natural processes and catastrophes.

  8. Mitigation of indirect environmental effects of GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidgeon, J D; May, M J; Perry, J N; Poppy, G M

    2007-06-22

    Currently, the UK has no procedure for the approval of novel agricultural practices that is based on environmental risk management principles. Here, we make a first application of the 'bow-tie' risk management approach in agriculture, for assessment of land use changes, in a case study of the introduction of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) sugar beet. There are agronomic and economic benefits, but indirect environmental harm from increased weed control is a hazard. The Farm Scale Evaluation (FSE) trials demonstrated reduced broad-leaved weed biomass and seed production at the field scale. The simplest mitigation measure is to leave a proportion of rows unsprayed in each GMHT crop field. Our calculations, based on FSE data, show that a maximum of 2% of field area left unsprayed is required to mitigate weed seed production and 4% to mitigate weed biomass production. Tilled margin effects could simply be mitigated by increasing the margin width from 0.5 to 1.5 m. Such changes are cheap and simple to implement in farming practices. This case study demonstrates the usefulness of the bow-tie risk management approach and the transparency with which hazards can be addressed. If adopted generally, it would help to enable agriculture to adopt new practices with due environmental precaution.

  9. How to measure and to manage the risk of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterzi, R; Vidale, S

    2006-06-01

    Several risk factors for stroke have been identified. Some of them can be modified through pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions. The presence of multiple risk factors has a factorial effect. Total risk estimation can be categorised into high, intermediate and low risk. However prevention should be considered as a continuum from low to high risk. Risk management strategies can be addressed to high-risk individuals and to populations. The more efficient and cost-effective strategies combine the two approaches. A number of tools for estimating risk of coronary heart disease or other atherosclerotic diseases have been developed, including risk score charts, risk assessment algorithms and computer software programmes. The Italian Guidelines for Stroke Prevention and Management, along with statements on pharmacological approach, provide recommendations concerning correct lifestyles to decrease stroke incidence and mortality in the entire population, but especially in subjects at high risk of vascular diseases.

  10. Buying years to extinction: is compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch a sufficient conservation measure for long-lived seabirds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Igual

    Full Text Available Along the lines of the 'polluter pays principle', it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to "buy" years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll

  11. Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Szilard Pafka; Imre Kondor

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of...

  12. Space weathering effects in Diviner Lunar Radiometer multispectral infrared measurements of the lunar Christiansen Feature: Characteristics and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucey, Paul G.; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Song, Eugenie; Arnold, Jessica A.; Lemelin, Myriam; Hanna, Kerri Donaldson; Bowles, Neil E.; Glotch, Timothy D.; Paige, David A.

    2017-02-01

    Multispectral infrared measurements by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment on the Lunar Renaissance Orbiter enable the characterization of the position of the Christiansen Feature, a thermal infrared spectral feature that laboratory work has shown is proportional to the bulk silica content of lunar surface materials. Diviner measurements show that the position of this feature is also influenced by the changes in optical and physical properties of the lunar surface with exposure to space, the process known as space weathering. Large rayed craters and lunar swirls show corresponding Christiansen Feature anomalies. The space weathering effect is likely due to differences in thermal gradients in the optical surface imposed by the space weathering control of albedo. However, inspected at high resolution, locations with extreme compositions and Christiansen Feature wavelength positions - silica-rich and olivine-rich areas - do not have extreme albedos, and fall off the albedo- Christiansen Feature wavelength position trend occupied by most of the Moon. These areas demonstrate that the Christiansen Feature wavelength position contains compositional information and is not solely dictated by albedo. An optical maturity parameter derived from near-IR measurements is used to partly correct Diviner data for space weathering influences.

  13. Measuring adolescents’ exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L.; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C.; Arseneault, Louise

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents mutlilevel findings on adolescents’ victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severe victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent amongst children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was re-victimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  14. Investigation of run-off and stability conditions and design of mitigation measures in Kittelfjøll, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, K.; Fallsvik, J.; Andersson, M.

    2009-04-01

    The Swedish society has relatively seldom been negatively affected by destructive debris flows despite the 1 200 km long mountainous area along the Norwegian border. The mountain terrain (Swedish "Fjällen") comprises mountain-peaks as well as mountain-plains. Most of the mountains have a height of around 1000-1500 m above sea level, but also higher mountains exist which show alpine forms. The reason for the low amount of affected constructions is the very low concentration of built up areas in the mountain areas. Anyhow, during the last decades many new ski resorts have been built and the hazard for landslides and debris flows has come up to discussion. Investigations in some areas have shown that mass movements have occurred many times in history but the awareness and knowledge are low. The highest monthly rain precipitation values occur in the mountain terrain in Sweden during July, August and September. In Kittelfjäll the values for the same periods are around 100 mm per month according to readings made by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. These values are expected to increase up to 30 % during the next 100 years due to climate changes. The Swedish Geotechnical Institute, SGI, investigated in 2008 the stability and run-off conditions in the mountainous area Kittelfjäll by commission of the municipality of Vilhelmina. The investigation was initiated due to a new local plan for the area. The aim of the study was (1) to map areas in danger for debris flows and landslides and (2) to suggest preventive measures including a calculation of the amount of material which could be transported in one occasion. The area comprises the largest gully area in Sweden with several 30-50 m deep gullies in a 400 m high till slope along the mountainside. The gullies and their belonging alluvial fans had been overviewed investigated by geomorphologists in the 1950´s. They concluded that the gullies had been formed by several debris flows mainly occurring

  15. Upscaling SOC changes from long term field experiments to regional level - evaluation of agri-environmental measures on their contribution to mitigate climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freudenschuss, Alexandra; Sedy, Katrin; Spiegel, Heide; Zethner, Gerhard

    2010-05-01

    Several agri-environment measures in Austria are presumed to also mitigate climate change. These are mainly measures that lead to an increase or stabilization of soil organic carbon (SOC) in arable soils, like e.g. organic farming, legumes and cover crops in the crop rotation as well as the application of organic fertilizers. A reduction of mineral fertiliser application may also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the study aim to evaluate different agricultural practices on their impact on SOC changes. Data from long term field experiments in Austria with different tillage systems and incorporation rates of crop residues and manure are used to determine effects of agricultural practices on SOC changes. Management factors that compare results from different activities on cropland are calculated and compared with international data. Furthermore these data are used to verify results gained from the application of humus balance model (VDLUFA). For the upscaling of potential SOC changes at regional level (federal states of Austria) data of the IACS - Integrated Administrative Control System are applied in the humus balance model. In order to cover the range of possible SOC changes three different approaches of the humus balance model are introduced and the results will be presented.

  16. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  17. Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from land to the UK river network - Scenario Analysis and possible mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinjili, Shailaja; Hiscock, Kevin; Lovett, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient export models, based on land use and land management data, support the analysis of the cause and effect of land use changes and aid in identifying significant nutrient sources. Although various simple approaches such as export coefficient modelling have been used for national scale and regional-scale studies, many of them lack inclusion of process-based elements to the model. In this study, we present a model that describes the river nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff, nutrient retention and hydrogeology. The model was calibrated using measured water quality data on N and P at catchment outlets and was applied to a 2-km resolution dataset established for England, Wales & Scotland. A 2-km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was developed using the grid and a flow accumulation algorithm in ESRI's ArcGIS. We combine nutrient loads from each 2-km cell with the flow accumulation model to identify the spatial distribution of critical nutrient sources to river water. Subsequently, the model was used to analyse different land management and climate change scenarios. The results of this study and scenario analysis seek to identify potential nutrient sensitive areas and support land use planning and policy decisions.

  18. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, Ayse; Wieringa, Roel

    2010-01-01

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency purpose, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk scales by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation

  19. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, Ayse; Wieringa, Roel

    2010-01-01

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is s

  20. Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency

  1. Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

    1999-06-01

    Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

  2. Mitigation : Closed Basin Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The upcoming meeting on waterfowl mitigation for the Closed Basin Project will have several people talk about possible changes to the waterfowl mitigation program. A...

  3. Mitigating for nature in Danish infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Christensen, Per

    2015-01-01

    his paper presents results of a Danish study of mitigation efforts directed at nature protection in EIA of Danish infrastructure projects. The projects included in the study comprise road, rail, bridges, tunnels cables and oil- and gas-pipes. The study is based on a document analysis of EIA reports...... mitigation measures are suggested and implemented. Based on this the paper concludes with a discussion of how practice of mitigating impacts on nature can be developed leading to better nature protection....

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  5. Environmental impact assessment of structural flood mitigation measures by a rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) technique: a case study in Metro Manila, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbuena, Romeo; Kawamura, Akira; Medina, Reynaldo; Amaguchi, Hideo; Nakagawa, Naoko; Bui, Duong Du

    2013-07-01

    In recent decades, the practice of environmental impact assessment (EIA) in the planning processes of infrastructure projects has created significant awareness on the benefits of environmentally sound and sustainable urban development around the world. In the highly urbanized megacities in the Philippines, like Metro Manila, high priority is given by the national government to structural flood mitigation measures (SFMM) due to the persistently high frequency of flood-related disasters, which are exacerbated by the on-going effects of climate change. EIA thus, should be carefully and effectively executed to maximize the potential benefits of the SFMM. The common practice of EIA in the Philippines is generally qualitative and lacks clear methodology in evaluating multi-criteria systems. Thus, this study proposes the use of the rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) technique to provide a method that would systematically and quantitatively evaluate the socio-economic and environmental impacts of planned SFMM in Metro Manila. The RIAM technique was slightly modified to fit the requirements of this study. The scale of impact was determined for each perceived impact, and based on the results, the planned SFMM for Metro Manila will likely bring significant benefits; however, significant negative impacts may also likely occur. The proposed modifications were found to be highly compatible with RIAM, and the results of the RIAM analysis provided a clear view of the impacts associated with the implementation of SFMM projects. This may prove to be valuable in the practice of EIA in the Philippines.

  6. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  7. International perspectives on mitigating laboratory biorisks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinard, William J.; Salazar, Carlos A.

    2010-11-01

    The International Perspectives on Mitigating Laboratory Biorisks workshop, held at the Renaissance Polat Istanbul Hotel in Istanbul, Republic of Turkey, from October 25 to 27, 2010, sought to promote discussion between experts and stakeholders from around the world on issues related to the management of biological risk in laboratories. The event was organized by Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction program, on behalf of the US Department of State Biosecurity Engagement Program and the US Department of Defense Cooperative Biological Engagement Program. The workshop came about as a response to US Under Secretary of State Ellen O. Tauscher's statements in Geneva on December 9, 2009, during the Annual Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Pursuant to those remarks, the workshop was intended to provide a forum for interested countries to share information on biorisk management training, standards, and needs. Over the course of the meeting's three days, participants discussed diverse topics such as the role of risk assessment in laboratory biorisk management, strategies for mitigating risk, measurement of performance and upkeep, international standards, training and building workforce competence, and the important role of government and regulation. The meeting concluded with affirmations of the utility of international cooperation in this sphere and recognition of positive prospects for the future. The workshop was organized as a series of short presentations by international experts on the field of biorisk management, followed by breakout sessions in which participants were divided into four groups and urged to discuss a particular topic with the aid of a facilitator and a set of guiding questions. Rapporteurs were present during the plenary session as well as breakout sessions and in particular were tasked with taking notes during discussions and reporting back to the assembled participants

  8. Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

    2015-11-01

    The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

  9. Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

  10. Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Public Debt Managers

    OpenAIRE

    Michael G. Papaioannou

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents conventional and alternative exchange-rate risk measures for government bonds, and outlines liability management operations for dealing with currency exposure. These risk measures and liability management operations are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign debt manager. In particular, we examine the VaR statistic as a prominent measure of exchange rate risk exposure, along with an integrated VaR approach for the simultaneous estimation of a bonded portfolio’s int...

  11. U.S. regional greenhouse gas emissions analysis comparing highly resolved vehicle miles traveled and CO2 emissions: mitigation implications and their effect on atmospheric measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and projections of fossil fuel energy demand show CO2 concentrations increasing indefinitely into the future. After electricity production, the transportation sector is the second largest CO2 emitting economic sector in the United States, accounting for 32.3% of the total U.S. emissions in 2002. Over 80% of the transport sector is composed of onroad emissions, with the remainder shared by the nonroad, aircraft, railroad, and commercial marine vessel transportation. In order to construct effective mitigation policy for the onroad transportation sector and more accurately predict CO2 emissions for use in transport models and atmospheric measurements, analysis must incorporate the three components that determine the CO2 onroad transport emissions: vehicle fleet composition, average speed of travel, and emissions regulation strategies. Studies to date, however, have either focused on one of these three components, have been only completed at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO2 emissions instead relying on the use of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as an emissions proxy. National-level projections of VMT growth is not sufficient to highlight regional differences in CO2 emissions growth due to the heterogeneity of vehicle fleet and each state’s road network which determines the speed of travel of vehicles. We examine how an analysis based on direct CO2 emissions and an analysis based on VMT differ in terms of their emissions and mitigation implications highlighting potential biases introduced by the VMT-based approach. This analysis is performed at the US state level and results are disaggregated by road and vehicle classification. We utilize the results of the Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions inventory which quantified emissions for the year 2002 across all economic sectors in the US at high resolution. We perform this comparison by fuel type,12 road types, and 12 vehicle types

  12. Landslide disaster prevention and mitigation through works in Hong Kong

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    K.Y. Choi; Raymond W.M. Cheung

    2013-01-01

    Hong Kong has a high concentration of developments on hilly terrain in close proximity to man-made slopes and natural hillsides. Because of the high seasonal rainfall, these man-made slopes and natural hillsides would pose a risk to the public as manifested by a death toll of 470 people due to landslides since the late 1940s. In 1977, the Government of the Hong Kong SAR embarked on a systematic programme, known as the Landslip Preventive Measure (LPM) Programme, to retrofit substandard man-made slopes. From 1977 to 2010, about 4500 substandard government man-made slopes have been upgraded through engineering works. During the period, the Programme had evolved progressively in response to Gov-ernment’s internal demand for continuous improvement and rising public expectation for slope safety. In 2010, the Government implemented the Landslip Prevention and Mitigation (LPMit) Programme to dovetail with the LPM Programme, with the focus on retrofitting the remaining moderate-risk substan-dard man-made slopes and mitigating systematically the natural terrain landslide risk pursuant to the“react-to-known”hazard principle. This paper presents the evolution of the LPM and LPMit Programmes as well as the insight on landslide prevention and mitigation through engineering works.

  13. Transmission of foot and mouth disease at the wildlife/livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa: Can the risk be mitigated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jori, Ferran; Etter, Eric

    2016-04-01

    In Southern Africa, the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the natural reservoir of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Contacts between this species and cattle are responsible for most of the FMD outbreaks in cattle at the edge of protected areas, which generate huge economic losses. During the late 1980's and 90's, the erection of veterinary cordon fences and the regular vaccination of cattle exposed to buffalo contact at the interface of the Kruger National Park (KNP), proved to be efficient to control and prevent FMD outbreaks in South Africa. However, since 2000, the efficiency of those measures has deteriorated, resulting in an increased rate of FMD outbreaks in cattle outside KNP, currently occurring more than once a year. Based on retrospective ecological and epidemiological data, we developed a stochastic quantitative model to assess the annual risk of FMD virus (FMDV) transmission from buffalo to cattle herds present at the KNP interface. The model suggests that good immunization of approximately 75% of the cattle population combined with a reduction of buffalo/cattle contacts is an efficient combination to reduce FMDV transmission to one infective event every 5.5 years, emulating the epidemiological situation observed at the end of the 20th century, before current failure of control measures. The model also indicates that an increasing number of buffalo present in the KNP and crossing its boundaries, combined with a reduction in the vaccination coverage of cattle herds at the interface, increases 3-fold the risk of transmission (one infective event per year).The model proposed makes biological sense and provides a good representation of current knowledge of FMD ecology and epidemiology in Southern Africa which can be used to discuss with stakeholders on different management options to control FMD at the wildlife livestock interface and updated if new information becomes available. It also suggests that the control of FMD at the KNP interface is becoming

  14. The role of PIXE in the AIRUSE project “testing and development of air quality mitigation measures in Southern Europe”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucarelli, F., E-mail: lucarelli@fi.infn.it [Department of Physics and Astronomy – University of Florence (Italy); National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN) – Florence, Via G. Sansone 1, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Italy); Chiari, M. [National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN) – Florence, Via G. Sansone 1, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Italy); Calzolai, G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy – University of Florence (Italy); Giannoni, M.; Nava, S. [National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN) – Florence, Via G. Sansone 1, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Italy); Udisti, R.; Severi, M. [Department of Chemistry – University of Florence, Via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (Italy); Querol, X.; Amato, F. [Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Alves, C. [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), Department of Environment, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Eleftheriadis, K. [Environmental Radioactivity Laboratory, N.C.S.R. Demokritos Univ., 15341 Ag. Paraskevi, Attiki (Greece)

    2015-11-15

    The European AIRUSE LIFE+ project aims at testing existing and future mitigation measures and developing new strategies for the improvement of air quality in Southern European countries. The project involves public and private institutions of Spain, UK, Portugal, Italy and Greece. PM10 and PM2.5 daily samplings have been scheduled for one year (from January 2013) in four urban sites, Barcelona (Spain), Porto (Portugal), Athens (Greece), and Florence (Italy). The daily data set gives an overall representative picture of the PM composition in these urban sites. The project includes also samplings with hourly resolution for limited periods. Hourly samples give an easier identification of the different aerosol sources due to the capability of tracking rapid changes as the ones occurring in many particulate emissions as well as in atmospheric transport and dilution processes. The role of PIXE technique within the project has been described in this paper. The comparison of data obtained by different techniques (e.g. PIXE, IC and ICP) assured a quality assurance control on the huge quantity of data obtained in the project. PIXE data together with those obtained by other analytical techniques have been used to reconstruct the average aerosol chemical composition and in Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis to determine the aerosol sources and their impact on PM10 and PM2.5 mass. In particular the high sensitivity of PIXE for all the crustal elements (including Si which is not easily detected by ICP) allows the direct determination of the Saharan dust contribution. Finally, the 1-h resolution data, which can be obtained only by PIXE, confirmed and reinforced the identification of the aerosol sources obtained by the daily concentrations.

  15. Environmental impact assessment using a utility-based recursive evidential reasoning approach for structural flood mitigation measures in Metro Manila, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbuena, Romeo; Kawamura, Akira; Medina, Reynaldo; Nakagawa, Naoko; Amaguchi, Hideo

    2013-12-15

    In recent years, the practice of environmental impact assessment (EIA) has created significant awareness on the role of environmentally sound projects in sustainable development. In view of the recent studies on the effects of climate change, the Philippine government has given high priority to the construction of flood control structures to alleviate the destructive effects of unmitigated floods, especially in highly urbanized areas like Metro Manila. EIA thus, should be carefully and effectively carried out to maximize or optimize the potential benefits that can be derived from structural flood mitigation measures (SFMMs). A utility-based environmental assessment approach may significantly aid flood managers and decision-makers in planning for effective and environmentally sound SFMM projects. This study proposes a utility-based assessment approach using the rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) technique, coupled with the evidential reasoning approach, to rationally and systematically evaluate the ecological and socio-economic impacts of 4 planned SFMM projects (i.e. 2 river channel improvements and 2 new open channels) in Metro Manila. Results show that the overall environmental effects of each of the planned SFMM projects are positive, which indicate that the utility of the positive impacts would generally outweigh the negative impacts. The results also imply that the planned river channel improvements will yield higher environmental benefits over the planned open channels. This study was able to present a clear and rational approach in the examination of overall environmental effects of SFMMs, which provides valuable insights that can be used by decision-makers and policy makers to improve the EIA practice and evaluation of projects in the Philippines.

  16. Financial risk protection and universal health coverage: evidence and measurement challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksena, Priyanka; Hsu, Justine; Evans, David B

    2014-09-01

    Financial risk protection is a key component of universal health coverage (UHC), which is defined as access to all needed quality health services without financial hardship. As part of the PLOS Medicine Collection on measurement of UHC, the aim of this paper is to examine and to compare and contrast existing measures of financial risk protection. The paper presents the rationale behind the methodologies for measuring financial risk protection and how this relates to UHC as well as some empirical examples of the types of measures. Additionally, the specific challenges related to monitoring inequalities in financial risk protection are discussed. The paper then goes on to examine and document the practical challenges associated with measurement of financial risk protection. This paper summarizes current thinking on the area of financial risk protection, provides novel insights, and suggests future developments that could be valuable in the context of monitoring progress towards UHC.

  17. Financial risk protection and universal health coverage: evidence and measurement challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka Saksena

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial risk protection is a key component of universal health coverage (UHC, which is defined as access to all needed quality health services without financial hardship. As part of the PLOS Medicine Collection on measurement of UHC, the aim of this paper is to examine and to compare and contrast existing measures of financial risk protection. The paper presents the rationale behind the methodologies for measuring financial risk protection and how this relates to UHC as well as some empirical examples of the types of measures. Additionally, the specific challenges related to monitoring inequalities in financial risk protection are discussed. The paper then goes on to examine and document the practical challenges associated with measurement of financial risk protection. This paper summarizes current thinking on the area of financial risk protection, provides novel insights, and suggests future developments that could be valuable in the context of monitoring progress towards UHC.

  18. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of

  19. A regional assessment of the cost and effectiveness of mitigation measures for reducing nutrient losses to water and greenhouse gas emissions to air from pastoral farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vibart, Ronaldo; Vogeler, Iris; Dennis, Samuel; Kaye-Blake, William; Monaghan, Ross; Burggraaf, Vicki; Beautrais, Josef; Mackay, Alec

    2015-06-01

    Using a novel approach that links geospatial land resource information with individual farm-scale simulation, we conducted a regional assessment of nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) losses to water and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to air from the predominant mix of pastoral industries in Southland, New Zealand. An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of several nutrient loss mitigation strategies applied at the farm-scale, set primarily for reducing N and P losses and grouped by capital cost and potential ease of adoption, followed an initial baseline assessment. Grouped nutrient loss mitigation strategies were applied on an additive basis on the assumption of full adoption, and were broadly identified as 'improved nutrient management' (M1), 'improved animal productivity' (M2), and 'restricted grazing' (M3). Estimated annual nitrate-N leaching losses occurring under representative baseline sheep and beef (cattle) farms, and representative baseline dairy farms for the region were 10 ± 2 and 32 ± 6 kg N/ha (mean ± standard deviation), respectively. Both sheep and beef and dairy farms were responsive to N leaching loss mitigation strategies in M1, at a low cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Only dairy farms were responsive to N leaching loss abatement from adopting M2, at no additional cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Dairy farms were also responsive to N leaching loss abatement from adopting M3, but this reduction came at a greater cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Only dairy farms were responsive to P-loss mitigation strategies, in particular by adopting M1. Only dairy farms were responsive to GHG abatement; greater abatement was achieved by the most intensified dairy farm system simulated. Overall, M1 provided for high levels of regional scale N- and P-loss abatement at a low cost per farm without affecting overall farm production, M2 provided additional N-loss abatement but only marginal P-loss abatement, whereas M3 provided the greatest N-loss abatement, but

  20. Banking activity. Management by risk assessment and measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Gotcu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rapid innovations in financial markets and the internationalization of the financial flows have created opportunities for developing some new products and supplying a wider product and service range to the banks. Liberalization of the financial markets , the severe competition and the diversification of the offered products expose banks to new risks and provocations. This new approach confirms the fact that the banking management generally and the risk management especially represents essential concern for the security and the stability both of each bank and the entire bankingsystem.

  1. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  2. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2017-01-09

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  3. Pedestrian injury mitigation by autonomous braking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosén, Erik; Källhammer, Jan-Erik; Eriksson, Dick; Nentwich, Matthias; Fredriksson, Rikard; Smith, Kip

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this study was to calculate the potential effectiveness of a pedestrian injury mitigation system that autonomously brakes the car prior to impact. The effectiveness was measured by the reduction of fatally and severely injured pedestrians. The database from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) was queried for pedestrians hit by the front of cars from 1999 to 2007. Case by case information on vehicle and pedestrian velocities and trajectories were analysed to estimate the field of view needed for a vehicle-based sensor to detect the pedestrians one second prior to the crash. The pre-impact braking system was assumed to activate the brakes one second prior to crash and to provide a braking deceleration up to the limit of the road surface conditions, but never to exceed 0.6 g. New impact speeds were then calculated for pedestrians that would have been detected by the sensor. These calculations assumed that all pedestrians who were within a given field of view but not obstructed by surrounding objects would be detected. The changes in fatality and severe injury risks were quantified using risk curves derived by logistic regression of the accident data. Summing the risks for all pedestrians, relationships between mitigation effectiveness, sensor field of view, braking initiation time, and deceleration were established. The study documents that the effectiveness at reducing fatally (severely) injured pedestrians in frontal collisions with cars reached 40% (27%) at a field of view of 40 degrees. Increasing the field of view further led to only marginal improvements in effectiveness.

  4. Linkages between Value based Performance Measurements and risk return trade off: theory and evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saban Celik

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we attempt to investigate the linkages between value-based performance measurements and risk-return trade off in a way to explain cross sectional asset returns. On the side of value based performance measurements, three groups of variables are used as a sorting factor: traditional measures which consist of accounting based and market based; recently popularized measures such as Economic Value Added and Market Value Added and theoretically sound measures such as foreign investor allocation and firm systematic risk indicators. The goals of the study are (i to show how value based measurements techniques relate to risk return trade off and (ii how these measures affect the cross sectional asset returns in manufacturing industry. Empirical results indicate that foreign investor allocation as a sorting factor produces much more meaningful risk return positive linear relation for cross sectional asset returns than traditional and recently popularized measures.

  5. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline

    2011-01-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass...

  6. Adaptation measures and pathways for flood risk in Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Kelder, E.; Anema, K.; van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2014-01-01

    In line with the Adaptive Delta Management approach of the Dutch Delta Programme, Dordrecht has developed a multi-layer safety strategy to meet the future tasking for flood risk management. This strategy puts greater emphasis on limiting the consequences of floods through spatial planning (layer 2)

  7. A Tractable Method for Measuring Nanomaterial Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murphy, Finbarr; Sheehan, Barry; Mullins, Martin; Bouwmeester, Hans; Marvin, Hans J.P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Costa, Anna L.; Das, Rasel; Stone, Vicki; Tofail, Syed A.M.

    2016-01-01

    While control banding has been identified as a suitable framework for the evaluation and the determination of potential human health risks associated with exposure to nanomaterials (NMs), the approach currently lacks any implementation that enjoys widespread support. Large inconsistencies in char

  8. Are preferences complete? : An experimental measurement of indecisiveness under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Danan, Eric; Ziegelmeyer, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    We propose an experimental design allowing a behavioral test of the axiom of completeness of individual preferences. The central feature of our design consists in enabling subjects to postpone commitment at a small cost. Our main result is that preferences are significantly incomplete. We use lotteries as choice alternatives and we find that risk aversion is globally robust to preference incompleteness.

  9. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the reliabili

  10. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  11. Mitigation of Malicious Attacks on Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Schneider, Christian M; Andrade, Jose S; Havlin, Shlomo; Herrmann, Hans J; 10.1073/pnas.1009440108

    2011-01-01

    Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against a malicious attack? We introduce a unique measure for robustness and use it to devise a method to mitigate economically and efficiently this risk. We demonstrate its efficiency on the European electricity system and on the Internet as well as on complex networks models. We show that with small changes in the network structure (low cost) the robustness of diverse networks can be improved dramatically while their functionality remains unchanged. Our results are useful not only for improving significantly with low cost the robustness of existing infrastructures but also for designing economically robust network systems.

  12. Human casualties in earthquakes: modelling and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.

  13. Space Debris & its Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushal, Sourabh; Arora, Nishant

    2012-07-01

    Space debris has become a growing concern in recent years, since collisions at orbital velocities can be highly damaging to functioning satellites and can also produce even more space debris in the process. Some spacecraft, like the International Space Station, are now armored to deal with this hazard but armor and mitigation measures can be prohibitively costly when trying to protect satellites or human spaceflight vehicles like the shuttle. This paper describes the current orbital debris environment, outline its main sources, and identify mitigation measures to reduce orbital debris growth by controlling these sources. We studied the literature on the topic Space Debris. We have proposed some methods to solve this problem of space debris. We have also highlighted the shortcomings of already proposed methods by space experts and we have proposed some modification in those methods. Some of them can be very effective in the process of mitigation of space debris, but some of them need some modification. Recently proposed methods by space experts are maneuver, shielding of space elevator with the foil, vaporizing or redirecting of space debris back to earth with the help of laser, use of aerogel as a protective layer, construction of large junkyards around international space station, use of electrodynamics tether & the latest method proposed is the use of nano satellites in the clearing of the space debris. Limitations of the already proposed methods are as follows: - Maneuvering can't be the final solution to our problem as it is the act of self-defence. - Shielding can't be done on the parts like solar panels and optical devices. - Vaporizing or redirecting of space debris can affect the human life on earth if it is not done in proper manner. - Aerogel has a threshold limit up to which it can bear (resist) the impact of collision. - Large junkyards can be effective only for large sized debris. In this paper we propose: A. The Use of Nano Tubes by creating a mesh

  14. Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, David R

    2014-12-28

    Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested.

  15. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  16. How effective are slurry storage, cover or catch crops, woodland creation, controlled trafficking or break-up of compacted layers, and buffer strips as on-farm mitigation measures for delivering an improved water environment?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall Nicola P

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Agriculture has intensified over the last 50 years resulting in increased usage of fertilizers and agrochemicals, changes in cropping practices, land drainage and increased stocking rates. In Europe, this has resulted in declines in the quality of soils and waters due to increased run off and water pollution. Fifty percent of nitrates in European rivers are derived from agricultural sources in the UK this value is as high as 70%, where agriculture also contributes to approximately 28% of phosphates and 76% of sediments recorded in rivers. Catchments dominated by agricultural land use have increased levels of pesticides and bacterial pathogens. European member states have a policy commitment to tackle water pollution through the Water Framework Directive. An analysis of the effectiveness of water pollution mitigation