WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk measures occurrence

  1. Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2018-01-01

    The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

  2. Brominated flame retardants: occurrence, dietary intake and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winter-Sorkina R de; Bakker MI; Wolterink G; Zeijlmaker MJ; SIR

    2006-01-01

    Brominated flame retardants have entered the human food chain. For the time being the occurrence of these chemicals in Dutch food does not pose a human health risk. However, this might easily change at increasing contents of flame retardants in Dutch food. The monitoring of brominated flame

  3. Occurrence of bovine hydatidosis and evaluation of its risk to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the occurrence, localization and fertility/sterility rates of hydatid cyst in cattle, to determine the prevalence of adult E. granulosus in dogs and asses the risk for human infection in traditional communities. Methods: Postmortem examination, hydatid cyst characterization, questionnaire survey and dog ...

  4. Health risk assessment standards of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Stankiewicz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Threat for human health appears during a massive cyanobacteria bloom in potable water used for human consumption or in basins used for recreational purposes. General health risk assessment standards and preventive measures to be taken by sanitation service were presented in scope of: – evaluation of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites / water bodies, – procedures in case of cyanobacteria bloom, including health risk assessment and decision making process to protect users’ health at bathing sites, – preventive measures, to be taken in case of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites and basins, where bathing sites are located.

  5. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  6. Pesticides in the Ebro River basin: Occurrence and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ccanccapa, Alexander; Masiá, Ana; Navarro-Ortega, Alícia; Picó, Yolanda; Barceló, Damià

    2016-01-01

    In this study, 50 pesticides were analyzed in the Ebro River basin in 2010 and 2011 to assess their impact in water, sediment and biota. A special emphasis was placed on the potential effects of both, individual pesticides and their mixtures, in three trophic levels (algae, daphnia and fish) using Risk Quotients (RQs) and Toxic Units (TUs) for water and sediments. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and carbendazim were the most frequent in water (95, 95 and 70% of the samples, respectively). Imazalil (409.73 ng/L) and diuron (150 ng/L) were at the highest concentrations. Sediment and biota were less contaminated. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and diclofenthion were the most frequent in sediments (82, 45 and 21% of the samples, respectively). The only pesticide detected in biota was chlorpyrifos (up to 840.2 ng g"−"1). Ecotoxicological risk assessment through RQs showed that organophosphorus and azol presented high risk for algae; organophosphorus, benzimidazoles, carbamates, juvenile hormone mimic and other pesticides for daphnia, and organophosphorus, azol and juvenile hormone mimics for fish. The sum TU_s_i_t_e for water and sediments showed values < 1 for the three bioassays. In both matrices, daphnia and fish were more sensitive to the mixture of pesticide residues present. - Highlights: • Wide occurrence of pesticides in water and in lesser extent in sediment and biota. • Ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment in the Ebro river and its tributaries. • Sum TU_s_i_t_e pointed out daphnia as more sensitive to the pesticide residue mixture. • Chronic toxicity test (RQ) showed risk in three trophic level (algae, daphnia and fish). - Evidence of water, sediment and biota contamination by a cocktail of pesticide residues especially hazardous for Daphnia.

  7. Co-occurrence of risk behaviors among Spanish adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meneses, Carmen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This work examines the co-occurrence of risk behaviors among Spanish adolescents. The analyzed behaviors were sexual activity, the use of alcohol and other drugs, violent conduct and behaviors related to driving mopeds or scooters. The sample consisted of 4,091 adolescents between the ages of 13 to 18, all of them enrolled in one of the four compulsory years of secondary education, the approximate equivalents of the 7th to 10th grades in the US educational system. Cluster analysis indicates that there are four risk profiles, one of which is the profile with the greatest risk and the highest co-occurrence of risk behaviors. This group represents 13% of the sample and is noteworthy for using illegal drugs, driving under the influence of drugs and other activities carried out under the influence of alcohol. Differences have been found among the various profiles according to sociodemographic characteristics such as sex, grade, perception of the family’s economic situation and ethnicity. The findings are discussed and some suggestions are given for prevention intervention.

    Este trabajo examina la concurrencia de comportamientos de riesgo en adolescentes españoles. Los comportamientos analizados fueron la actividad sexual, el consumo de alcohol y otras drogas, conductas violentas y comportamientos en la conducción de ciclomotores o motocicletas. La muestra incluye 4.091 adolescentes de 13 a 18 años, perteneciente a educación secundaria obligatoria. Los resultados obtenidos muestran cuatro perfiles de riesgo, siendo uno de ellos el perfil de más alto riesgo y concurrencia de comportamientos arriesgados. Este grupo supone el 13% en el que destacan las conductas de consumo de drogas lícitas, conducir bajo los efectos de droga y otras conductas realizadas bajo los efectos del alcohol. Se encuentran diferencias entre estos perfiles y las características sociodemográficas como el sexo, el curso, la percepción sobre la economía familiar y

  8. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  9. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  10. Risk factors and the occurrence of cerebral palsy in high risk infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Setyo Handryastuti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background The incidence of cerebral palsy (CP has increased due to better survival rates of high-risk babies. Early detection and time to the occurrence of CP in the first year of life is important in order to provide early intervention. Objectives To determine the proportion of CP in high-risk babies, the time to the occurrence of CP in the first year, and assess possible associations between risk factors of CP and time to the occurrence of CP. Methods A prospective cohort study was done on 150 high-risk babies up to the age of 12 months. We obtained history of motor ability and assessed primitive reflexes and postural reactions of subjects at the ages of 4 and 6 months. The diagnosis of CP was established at 6 and 12 months of age. Results The proportion of CP was 26% at 6 months and 24% at 12 months of age. Significant risk factors associated with CP at 6 and 12 months of age were cerebral ultrasound abnormalities, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and intracranial hemorrhage. In 88.7% of subjects with CP, CP was detected in the first 6 months. Mean age at the occurrence of CP was 9.99 months (95%CI 9.46 to 10.53. Risk factors that significantly affected the time to the occurrence of CP by survival analysis were ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Conclusions Cerebral palsy can be detected as early as the first 6 months of life. Cerebral ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy are the risk factors associated with CP.

  11. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  12. Sensation seeking indirectly affects perceptions of risk for co-occurrent substance use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hittner, James B; Warner, Margaret A; Swickert, Rhonda J

    2016-02-01

    High sensation seekers engage in more frequent substance use and perceive a host of potentially dangerous activities as less risky than do low sensation seekers. However, despite a plethora of research on these topics, no study has examined the extent to which personal substance use mediates the association between sensation seeking and perceived risk of substance use. To address this question, we recruited a sample of 79 young adults (mean age=19.1 years, standard deviation=1.4). Participants completed questionnaire measures of sensation seeking, substance use, and perceived risk of co-occurrent substance use. Results from path-analytic modeling indicated that both alcohol use and marijuana use mediated the influence of sensation seeking on perceptions of risk for moderately risky, but not highly risky, pairs of substances. Strengths and limitations of the present study were discussed and directions for future research were suggested.

  13. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  14. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  15. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  16. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackmurdo, R.

    1994-01-01

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  17. Polypharmacy as a risk for fall occurrence in geriatric outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, Taro; Akishita, Masahiro; Nakamura, Tetsuro; Nomura, Kazushi; Ogawa, Sumito; Iijima, Katsuya; Eto, Masato; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi

    2012-07-01

    To investigate the predictors of falls, such as comorbidity and medication, in geriatric outpatients in a longitudinal observational study. A total of 172 outpatients (45 men and 126 women, mean age 76.9 ± 7.0 years) were evaluated. Physical examination, clinical history and medication profile were obtained from each patient at baseline. These patients were followed for up to 2 years and falls were self-reported to their physicians. The factors associated with falls were analyzed statistically. A total of 32 patients experienced falls within 2 years. On univariate analysis, older age, osteoporosis, number of comorbid conditions and number of drugs were significantly associated with falls within 2 years. On multiple logistic regression analysis, the number of drugs was associated with falls, independent of age, sex, number of comorbid conditions and other factors that were significantly associated in univariate analysis. A receiver-operator curve evaluating the optimal cut-off value for the number of drugs showed that taking five or more drugs was a significant risk. In geriatric outpatients, polypharmacy is associated with falls. Intervention studies are needed to clarify the causal relationship between polypharmacy, comorbidity and falls. © 2011 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  18. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  19. Early-life risk factors for occurrence of atopic dermatitis during the first year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Mikio; Arakawa, Hirokazu; Ozawa, Kiyoshi; Mizuno, Takahisa; Mochizuki, Hiroyuki; Tokuyama, Kenichi; Morikawa, Akihiro

    2007-03-01

    In a prospective birth cohort study, we sought to identify perinatal predictors of the occurrence of atopic dermatitis in the first year of life. Associations of family history, infection during pregnancy, cord blood cytokine concentrations, and skin function parameters with atopic dermatitis were analyzed. Stratum corneum hydration was measured with an impedance meter until 5 days after delivery and again at 1 month. Complete data were obtained for 213 infants, including 27 diagnosed by a physician as having atopic dermatitis during their first year and 26 diagnosed as having infantile eczema during their first month. The risk of atopic dermatitis during the first year of life was related to maternal atopic dermatitis, lower concentrations of macrophage inflammatory protein-1beta in cord blood, and greater skin moisture in the surface and stratum corneum of the forehead and cheek at 1 month of age but not to viral or bacterial infection during pregnancy or breastfeeding. Paternal hay fever was associated negatively with the development of atopic dermatitis. High concentrations of interleukin-5, interleukin-17, and macrophage chemotactic protein-1 and only surface moisture in the cheek were associated with greater risk of infantile eczema in the first month. The association of atopic dermatitis in infancy with reduced neonatal macrophage inflammatory protein-1beta levels suggests a link with immature immune responses at birth. Stratum corneum barrier disruption in atopic dermatitis may involve impairment of cutaneous adaptation to extrauterine life. The majority of risk factors had different effects on infant eczema and atopic dermatitis, indicating different causes.

  20. Risk Assessment of Defect Occurrences in Engine Piston Castings by FMEA Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piątkowski J.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis method consists in analysis of failure modes and evaluation of their effects based on determination of cause-effect relationships for formation of possible product or process defects. Identified irregularities which occur during the production process of piston castings for internal combustion engines were ordered according to their failure rates, and using Pareto-Lorenz analysis, their per cent and cumulated shares were determined. The assessments of risk of defects occurrence and their causes were carried out in ten-point scale of integers, while taking three following criteria into account: significance of effects of the defect occurrence (LPZ, defect occurrence probability (LPW and detectability of the defect found (LPO. A product of these quantities constituted the risk score index connected with a failure occurrence (a so-called “priority number,” LPR. Based on the observations of the piston casting process and on the knowledge of production supervisors, a set of corrective actions was developed and the FMEA was carried out again. It was shown that the proposed improvements reduce the risk of occurrence of process failures significantly, translating into a decrease in defects and irregularities during the production of piston castings for internal combustion engines.

  1. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

    1991-05-01

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  2. Reduced occurrence of early atopic dermatitis because of immunoactive prebiotics among low-atopy-risk infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grueber, Christoph; van Stuijvenberg, Margriet; Mosca, Fabio; Moro, Guido; Chirico, Gaetano; Braegger, Christian P.; Riedler, Josef; Boehm, Guenther; Wahn, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    Background: Most infants developing atopic dermatitis have a low risk for atopy. Primary prevention of atopic dermatitis is difficult. Objective: To assess the effect of supplementation of an infant and follow-on formula with prebiotic and immunoactive oligosaccharides on the occurrence of atopic

  3. Computational results on the compound binomial risk model with nonhomogeneous claim occurrences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuncel, A.; Tank, F.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to give a recursive formula for non-ruin (survival) probability when the claim occurrences are nonhomogeneous in the compound binomial risk model. We give recursive formulas for non-ruin (survival) probability and for distribution of the total number of claims under the

  4. Occurrence of risk factors for zoonoses in Kisumu City, Kenya: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the occurrence of risk factors amongst farmers keeping livestock in Kisumu municipality, Kenya. Methods: Thirty four contact house-holds involved in livestock keeping constituted the study group. The head of the household was interviewed using a structured questionnaire relating to public health ...

  5. Antibiotics in the surface water of the Yangtze Estuary: occurrence, distribution and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Caixia; Yang, Yi; Zhou, Junliang; Liu, Min; Nie, Minghua; Shi, Hao; Gu, Lijun

    2013-04-01

    The occurrence and distribution of five groups of antibiotics were investigated in the surface water of Yangtze Estuary over four seasons. Of the 20 antibiotics, only sulfamerazine was not detected at all sampling sites, indicating widespread occurrence of antibiotic residues in the study area. Detection frequencies and concentrations of antibiotics were generally higher in January, indicating that low flow conditions and low temperature might enhance the persistence of antibiotics in water. Antibiotic levels varied with location, with the highest concentrations being observed around river discharge and sewage outfall. Furthermore, a positive correlation between total antibiotic and DOC concentrations revealed the significant role played by DOC. Risk assessment based on single compound exposure showed that sulfapyridine and sulfamethoxazole could cause medium risk to daphnid in the Yangtze Estuary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Methylation diet and methyl group genetics in risk for adenomatous polyp occurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Lucock

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: A methylation diet influences methyl group synthesis in the regulation of blood homocysteine level, and is modulated by genetic interactions. Methylation-related nutrients also interact with key genes to modify risk of AP, a precursor of colorectal cancer. Independent of diet, two methylation-related genes (A2756G-MS and A66G-MSR were directly associated with AP occurrence.

  7. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Characteristics of cloud occurrence using ceilometer measurements and its relationship to precipitation over Seoul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghee; Hwang, Seung-On; Kim, Jhoon; Ahn, Myoung-Hwan

    2018-03-01

    Clouds are an important component of the atmosphere that affects both climate and weather, however, their contributions can be very difficult to determine. Ceilometer measurements can provide high resolution information on atmospheric conditions such as cloud base height (CBH) and vertical frequency of cloud occurrence (CVF). This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of CBH and CVF derived using Vaisala CL51 ceilometers at two urban stations in Seoul, Korea, during a three-year period from January 2014 to December 2016. The average frequency of cloud occurrence detected by the ceilometers is 54.3%. It is found that the CL51 is better able to capture CBH as compared to another ceilometer CL31 at a nearby meteorological station because it could detect high clouds more accurately. Frequency distributions for CBH up to 13,000 m providing detailed vertical features with 500-m interval show 55% of CBHs below 2 km for aggregated CBHs. A bimodal frequency distribution was observed for three-layers CBHs. A monthly variation of CVF reveals that frequency concentration of lower clouds is found in summer and winter, and higher clouds more often detected in spring and autumn. Monthly distribution features of cloud occurrence and precipitation are depending on seasons and it might be easy to define their relationship due to higher degree of variability of precipitation than cloud occurrence. However, a fluctuation of cloud occurrence frequency in summer is similar to precipitation in trend, whereas clouds in winter are relatively frequent but precipitation is not accompanied. In addition, recent decrease of summer precipitation could be mostly explained by a decrease of cloud occurrence. Anomalous precipitation recorded sometimes is considerably related to corresponding cloud occurrence. The diurnal and daily variations of CBH and CVF from ceilometer observations and the analysis of microwave radiometer measurements for two typical cloudiness cases are also reviewed

  9. Occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion in the population of young adults in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmyhr, Øyvind; Grytten, Jostein; Holst, Dorthe

    2012-10-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion for a group of young adults who are particularly susceptible to erosion. Another aim was to describe the awareness of erosion and distribution of risk factors according to the educational background of the parents. The sample (n = 2004 individuals) was randomly drawn from the population of 19-20-year-old Norwegians. The data were collected using telephone interviews. We measured awareness about erosion using the following question: 'Have you ever heard about dental erosion?' We obtained information about the frequency of intake of the following risk factors: soft drinks with and without sugar, and juice. Soft drinks with sugar included lemonade (Coca-Cola, Solo, Pepsi, Mozell and ice tea) and sport drinks (XL1, Maxim). Soft drinks without sugar included Cola light, Zero, PepsiMax, Solo light and ice tea light. Juice included orange, grapefruit, apple and kiwi juice. The parents' level of education was based on the Norwegian school system, which has three levels: compulsory schooling (10 years), upper secondary school education (up to 13 years) and university/college education. The data were analysed using logistic regressions analyses. Awareness of erosion was high - 93.5% of respondents were aware of the problem. The majority of respondents believed that erosion can be prevented - altogether 84.9%. They also believed that soft drinks with and without sugar are equally important for the development of erosion. 17.5% of respondents drank soft drinks with sugar daily or several times a day. The corresponding figures for soft drinks without sugar and juice were 4.9% and 34.1%, respectively. Young adults with mothers with high education drank soft drinks both with and without sugar less frequently than those who had mothers with low education. This pattern was the opposite for juice. Consumption of soft drinks and juice is high, even though awareness and knowledge about the causes

  10. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in waters: occurrence, toxicity, and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cizmas, Leslie; Sharma, Virender K.; Gray, Cole M.; McDonald, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) are compounds with special physical and chemical properties that address the care of animal and human health. PPCP have been detected in surface water and wastewater in the ng/L to ��g/L concentration range worldwide. PPCP ecotoxicity has been studied in a variety of organisms, and multiple methods have been used to assess the risk of PPCP in the environment to ecological health. Here we review the occurrence, effects, and risk assessment of P...

  11. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  12. THE MEASUREMENT OF BONE QUALITY USING GRAY LEVEL CO-OCCURRENCE MATRIX TEXTURAL FEATURES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirvaikar, Mukul; Huang, Ning; Dong, Xuanliang Neil

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, statistical methods for the estimation of bone quality to predict the risk of fracture are reported. Bone mineral density and bone architecture properties are the main contributors of bone quality. Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) is the traditional clinical measurement technique for bone mineral density, but does not include architectural information to enhance the prediction of bone fragility. Other modalities are not practical due to cost and access considerations. This study investigates statistical parameters based on the Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) extracted from two-dimensional projection images and explores links with architectural properties and bone mechanics. Data analysis was conducted on Micro-CT images of 13 trabecular bones (with an in-plane spatial resolution of about 50μm). Ground truth data for bone volume fraction (BV/TV), bone strength and modulus were available based on complex 3D analysis and mechanical tests. Correlation between the statistical parameters and biomechanical test results was studied using regression analysis. The results showed Cluster-Shade was strongly correlated with the microarchitecture of the trabecular bone and related to mechanical properties. Once the principle thesis of utilizing second-order statistics is established, it can be extended to other modalities, providing cost and convenience advantages for patients and doctors.

  13. Health risk factors as predictors of workers' compensation claim occurrence and cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwatka, Natalie V; Atherly, Adam; Dally, Miranda J; Fang, Hai; vS Brockbank, Claire; Tenney, Liliana; Goetzel, Ron Z; Jinnett, Kimberly; Witter, Roxana; Reynolds, Stephen; McMillen, James; Newman, Lee S

    2017-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to examine the predictive relationships between employee health risk factors (HRFs) and workers' compensation (WC) claim occurrence and costs. Methods Logistic regression and generalised linear models were used to estimate the predictive association between HRFs and claim occurrence and cost among a cohort of 16 926 employees from 314 large, medium and small businesses across multiple industries. First, unadjusted (HRFs only) models were estimated, and second, adjusted (HRFs plus demographic and work organisation variables) were estimated. Results Unadjusted models demonstrated that several HRFs were predictive of WC claim occurrence and cost. After adjusting for demographic and work organisation differences between employees, many of the relationships previously established did not achieve statistical significance. Stress was the only HRF to display a consistent relationship with claim occurrence, though the type of stress mattered. Stress at work was marginally predictive of a higher odds of incurring a WC claim (p<0.10). Stress at home and stress over finances were predictive of higher and lower costs of claims, respectively (p<0.05). Conclusions The unadjusted model results indicate that HRFs are predictive of future WC claims. However, the disparate findings between unadjusted and adjusted models indicate that future research is needed to examine the multilevel relationship between employee demographics, organisational factors, HRFs and WC claims. PMID:27530688

  14. Prevalence, Co-Occurrence and Clustering of Lifestyle Risk Factors Among UK Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Zwolinsky

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Men – more than women - engage in unhealthy lifestyle practices that place them at greater risk of developing non-communicable disease. This paper aims to explore the prevalence, co-occurrence and clustering of four core lifestyle risk factors and examine the socio demographic variation of their distribution, among men living in two central London boroughs. Method: A stratified street survey was undertaken with N=859 men. Prevalence odds ratios calculated risk factor clustering and a multinomial logistic regression model examined the socio-demographic variation. Results: Over 72% of men presented with combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Physical inactivity combined with a lack of fruit and vegetables was the most common combination. Co-occurrence was more prominent for unemployed, widowed, divorced/separated and white British men. Clustering was evident for adherence and non-adherence to UK health recommendations. Conclusion: Men may benefit from targeted health interventions that address multiple – rather than single – health related behaviours.

  15. Study of pharmaceuticals in surface and wastewater from Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico: Occurrence and environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Jaimes, José Abraham; Postigo, Cristina; Melgoza-Alemán, Rosa María; Aceña, Jaume; Barceló, Damia; López de Alda, Miren

    2018-02-01

    The present work describes the first known study to date on the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in surface water and wastewater of Cuernavaca, the capital of the state of Morelos (México). Selected pharmaceuticals (a total of 35) were extracted from the collected water samples with a generic solid phase extraction (SPE) protocol and determined in the sample extracts by means of high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS/MS). A screening level risk assessment combining the measured environmental concentrations (MECs) with dose-response data based on predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) was also applied to estimate Hazard Quotients (HQs) for the pharmaceuticals detected in the investigated area. A total of twelve pharmaceuticals were found in the water samples analyzed, with detection frequencies above 78% and in most cases of 100%. Overall, the most abundant pharmaceuticals in surface water were the analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs naproxen (732-4880ng/L), acetaminophen (354-4460ng/L), and diclofenac (258-1398ng/L), and the lipid regulator bezafibrate (286-2100ng/L). On the contrary, other compounds like the β-blocker atenolol and the psychiatric drug carbamazepine were found at only a few ng or tens of ng per liter in the Apatlaco River. Despite the fact that some of the most abundant compounds showed good removal (>97%) during wastewater treatment, concentrations downstream the WWTP were only slightly lower than upstream. This indicates the existence of additional inputs of untreated wastewater into the river. Based on the obtained HQ-values, the concentrations of ibuprofen, sulfamethoxazole, diclofenac and naproxen present in the river could pose a high toxicity risk for the aquatic ecosystem. These findings highlight these pharmaceuticals as relevant organic contaminants in the area of study and the need to further monitor them in order to adopt appropriate measures to safeguard the

  16. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  17. Occurrence, distribution and risk of organophosphate esters in urban road dust in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhui; Shi, Yali; Gao, Lihong; Wu, Chuandong; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

    2018-06-06

    As a major group of plasticizers and flame-retardants, organophosphate esters (OPEs) have attracted particular attention due to their wide occurrence and potential impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the present study, the occurrence and distribution of 14 OPEs, including seven Alkyl-OPEs, three Cl-OPEs, and four Aryl-OPEs, were investigated in 65 road dust samples collected from November to December 2014 in Beijing, China. Cl-OPEs were the predominant compounds in the road dust samples, with the median concentration of 646 μg/kg, followed by the Alkyl-OPEs (median 135 μg/kg) and Aryl-OPEs (median 129 μg/kg). Tris(2-chloro-1-methylethyl) phosphate (TCPP) was the most abundant OPE with the median concentration of 384 μg/kg. In addition, OPEs levels showed significant difference (p road with heavy traffic and high population density, indicating that the traffic and population were important factors for this distribution pattern. It was further supported by the analysis of OPEs in roadside soil and indoor dust in the vicinity of road dust sample sites. Finally, the average daily dose (ADD) for OPEs via inhalation, dermal absorption, and ingestion was calculated to evaluate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to residents exposed to OPEs in the road dust. Risk assessment revealed that the risk originating from exposure to OPEs of road dust is currently low in Beijing, China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Current understanding of microplastics in the environment: Occurrence, fate, risks, and what we should do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jinping; Wang, Jundong; Cai, Liqi

    2017-05-01

    Microplastics pollution has been documented in the global environment, including at sea, in freshwater and in atmospheric fallout. Ingestion of microplastics by multiple kinds of organisms has been reported and has received increasing attention, because microplastics not only act as a source of toxic chemicals but also a sink for toxic chemicals. To better understand the great concerns about microplastics and associated toxic chemicals potential exposed to the organisms ingesting the debris, we should know more about the occurrence, fate, and risks of microplastics in the environment. What we should do depends on this better understanding. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:476-482. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  19. [Risk of thyroid cancer occurrence by nuclear disasters and its countermeasures].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Atsushi; Yamashita, Shunichi

    2012-11-01

    Looking back at the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, the importance of the epidemiological study in human health risk management and the comprehensive radiation protection standard need to be emphasized; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Health Care Project (Fukushima Health Management Survey Project)" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. In this issue, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence by nuclear disasters, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite the difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures.

  20. Occurrence, seasonal variation and risk assessment of antibiotics in the reservoirs in North China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Nan; Zhang, Xinbo; Wu, Wei; Zhao, Xinhua

    2014-09-01

    The occurrence and seasonal variability of five groups (tetracycline, quinolone, chloramphenicol, macrolide and sulfonamide) of antibiotics were investigated in the surface water of four reservoirs. The dissolved concentrations of 29 antibiotics were in the ngL(-1) level. Trace levels of all target antibiotics were analyzed using solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry. All of the antibiotics were detected at all sampling sites, indicating widespread occurrence of antibiotics in the study area. The detection of florfenicol, josamycin, kitasamycin, spiramycin and sulfameter is the first report of these compounds in reservoir samples. The results showed an association between the presence of some antibiotics at Panjiakou reservoir and cage culture of fish. Twenty-three types of antibiotics showed significant seasonal variations (prisk assessment showed that all antibiotics detected could cause very low risk to algae, daphnid and fish. Further health risk need to be investigated because these reservoirs are drinking water sources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Environmental occurrence and ecological risk assessment of organic UV filters in marine organisms from Hong Kong coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Ziye; Leung, Kelvin Sze-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Organic UV filters, now considered to be emerging contaminants in aquatic ecosystems, are being intensively tracked in environmental waters worldwide. However, their environmental fate and impact of these contaminants on marine organisms remains largely unknown, especially in Asia. This work elucidates the occurrence and the ecological risks of seven UV filters detected in farmed fish, wild mussels and some other wild organisms collected from local mariculture farms in Hong Kong. For all of the organisms, ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate (EHMC) and octyl dimethyl p-aminobenzoic acid (OD-PABA) were the predominant contaminants with the highest concentrations up to 51.3 and 24.1ng/g (dw), respectively; lower levels were found for benzophenone-8 (BP-8), octocrylene (OC) and benzophenone-3 (BP-3) from measured concentrations of all targets were clearly higher in mussels than in fish. Spatial distribution of studied UV filters indicated a positive correlation between their measured concentrations and the anthropogenic activities responsible for their direct emission. The ecological risk assessment specific to the marine aquatic environment was carried out. The risk quotient (RQ) values of EHMC and BP-3 were calculated as 3.29 and 2.60, respectively, indicating these two UV filters may pose significant risks to the marine aquatic environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparison of two occurrence risk assessment methods for collapse gully erosion ——A case study in Guangdong province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, K.; Cheng, D. B.; He, J. J.; Zhao, Y. L.

    2018-02-01

    Collapse gully erosion is a specific type of soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, and early warning and prevention of the occurrence of collapse gully erosion is very important. Based on the idea of risk assessment, this research, taking Guangdong province as an example, adopt the information acquisition analysis and the logistic regression analysis, to discuss the feasibility for collapse gully erosion risk assessment in regional scale, and compare the applicability of the different risk assessment methods. The results show that in the Guangdong province, the risk degree of collapse gully erosion occurrence is high in northeastern and western area, and relatively low in southwestern and central part. The comparing analysis of the different risk assessment methods on collapse gully also indicated that the risk distribution patterns from the different methods were basically consistent. However, the accuracy of risk map from the information acquisition analysis method was slightly better than that from the logistic regression analysis method.

  3. Occurrence, Distribution, and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in a Subtropical River-Reservoir System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Antibiotic pollutions in the aquatic environment have attracted widespread attention due to their ubiquitous distribution and antibacterial properties. The occurrence, distribution, and ecological risk assessment of 17 common antibiotics in this study were preformed in a vital drinking water source represented as a river-reservoir system in South China. In general, 15 antibiotics were detected at least once in the watershed, with the total concentrations of antibiotics in the water samples ranging from 193.6 to 863.3 ng/L and 115.1 to 278.2 μg/kg in the sediment samples. For the water samples, higher rain runoff may contribute to the levels of total concentration in the river system, while perennial anthropic activity associated with the usage pattern of antibiotics may be an important factor determining similar sources and release mechanisms of antibiotics in the riparian environment. Meanwhile, the reservoir system could act as a stable reactor to influence the level and composition of antibiotics exported from the river system. For the sediment samples, hydrological factor in the reservoir may influence the antibiotic distributions along with seasonal variation. Ecological risk assessment revealed that tetracycline and ciprofloxacin could pose high risks in the aquatic environment. Taken together, further investigations should be performed to elaborate the environmental behaviors of antibiotics in the river-reservoir system, especially in drinking water sources.

  4. Risk factors with the occurrence of parasites and coliform in vegetables from an agroindustry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Rafael Martins Soto

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this study, we evaluated the risk factors associated with the occurrence of total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs in vegetables from an agroindustry in the city of Ibiúna - SP, Brazil. A questionnaire with 17 questions was applied to 24 producers to carry out a diagnosis of the risk factors and their posterior association or not with total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs. The questions addressed mainly the production system, fertilizer used, source of the water used for irrigation, sanitization of the vegetables, and form of transport. For the investigation of total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs, the samples were processed at the microbiology and parasitology laboratory of the Federal Institute of São Paulo, São Roque Campus. The results revealed that total coliforms were found in 100% of the investigated samples and thermotolerant coliforms were detected in 95.83% of the samples. There was a significant statistical association for the risk factor use of reservoir water, where there was release of wastewater and absence of sanitization of the vegetables at the moment of harvest in relation to the presence of thermotolerant coliforms. Intestinal parasite eggs were found in 33.33% of the samples.

  5. Occurrence, distribution and risks of antibiotics in urban surface water in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhui; Gao, Lihong; Shi, Yali; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

    2015-09-01

    The occurrence and distribution of 22 antibiotics, including eight fluoroquinolones, nine sulfonamides and five macrolides, were investigated in the urban surface waters in Beijing, China. A total of 360 surface water samples were collected from the main rivers and lakes in the urban area of Beijing monthly from July 2013 to June 2014 (except the frozen period). Laboratory analyses revealed that antibiotics were widely used and extensively distributed in the surface water of Beijing, and sulfonamides and fluoroquinolones were the predominant antibiotics with the average concentrations of 136 and 132 ng L(-1), respectively. A significant difference of antibiotic concentrations from different sampling sites was observed, and the southern and eastern regions of Beijing showed higher concentrations of antibiotics. Seasonal variation of the antibiotics in the urban surface water was also studied, and the highest level of antibiotics was found in November, which may be due to the low temperature and flow of the rivers during the period of cold weather. Risk assessment showed that several antibiotics might pose high ecological risks to aquatic organisms (algae and plants) in surface water, and more attention should be paid to the risk of antibiotics to the aquatic environment in Beijing.

  6. Occurrence of anionic surfactants in treated sewage: Risk assessment to aquatic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mungray, Arvind Kumar; Kumar, Pradeep

    2008-01-01

    A comparative evaluation of occurrence of and risk to aquatic environment due to anionic surfactants (AS) in treated effluents from three main treatment processes, i.e. activated sludge process (ASP), oxidation pond (OP), and upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactor (UASBR) is presented. UASBR effluents contained substantial concentrations of AS (4.25-5.91 mg/L as average AS removal was not found to exceed 18%). Post-treatment of UASBR effluent using 1-1.6 days detention, anaerobic polishing ponds (PP) was also found quite ineffective. In UASBR-PP combine, AS reduced only up to 30%. Effluents from OP based sewage treatment plants (STPs) also contained significant concentrations of AS. On the contrary, effluent AS or linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) concentrations recorded in ASP effluents were quite low (less than 0.2 mg/L). Unlike UASBR, LAS or AS removals greater than 99% are achieved in ASP. Treated effluents from UASBR and OP based STPs when discharged to aquatic ecosystems are likely to cause substantial risk to aquatic environment due to the presence of AS while effluents from ASP are not supposed to pose risk. Need to find an effective aerobic post-treatment unit to UASBR for desired removal of AS is emphasized

  7. Occurrence, removal, and risk assessment of antibiotics in 12 wastewater treatment plants from Dalian, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin; Zhao, Hongxia; Du, Juan; Qu, Yixuan; Shen, Chen; Tan, Feng; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

    2017-07-01

    In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 31 antibiotics, including 11 sulfonamides (SAs), five fluoroquinolones (FQs), four macrolides (MLs), four tetracyclines (TCs), three chloramphenicols (CAPs), and four other antibiotics (Others), were investigated in 12 municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Dalian, China. A total of 29 antibiotics were detected in wastewater samples with the concentration ranging from 63.6 to 5404.6 ng/L. FQs and SAs were the most abundant antibiotic classes in most wastewater samples, accounting for 42.2 and 23.9% of total antibiotic concentrations, respectively, followed by TCs (16.0%) and MLs (14.8%). Sulfamethoxazole, erythromycin, clarithromycin, azithromycin, ofloxacin, and norfloxacin were the most frequently detected antibiotics; of these, the concentration of ofloxacin was the highest in most of influent (average concentration = 609.8 ng/L) and effluent (average concentration = 253.4 ng/L) samples. The removal efficiencies varied among WWTPs in the range of -189.9% (clarithromycin) to 100% (enoxacin, doxycycline, etc), and more than 50% of antibiotics could not be efficiently removed with the removal efficiency less than 65%. An environmental risk assessment was also performed in the WWTP effluents by calculating the risk quotient (RQ), and high RQ values (>1) indicated erythromycin and clarithromycin might cause the ecological risk on organisms in surrounding water near discharge point of WWTPs in this area, which warrants further attention.

  8. Antibiotics in Crab Ponds of Lake Guchenghu Basin, China: Occurrence, Temporal Variations, and Ecological Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenxia Wang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Antibiotics are widely used in aquaculture, however, this often results in undesirable ecological effects. To evaluate the occurrence, temporal variations, and ecological risk of antibiotics in five crab ponds of Lake Guchenghu Basin, China, 44 antibiotics from nine classes were analyzed by rapid resolution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (RRLC-MS/MS. Twelve antibiotics belonging to six classes were detected in the aqueous phase of five crab ponds, among which sulfonamides and macrolides were the predominant classes, and six compounds (sulfamonomethoxine, sulfadiazine, trimethoprim, erythromycin-H2O, monensin, and florfenicol were frequently detected at high concentrations. In general, the antibiotic levels varied between different crab ponds, with the average concentrations ranging from 122 to 1440 ng/L. The antibiotic concentrations in crab ponds exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest concentration and detection frequency detected in summer. Multivariate analysis showed that antibiotic concentrations were significantly correlated with environmental variables, such as total organic carbon, phosphate, ammonia nitrogen, and pH. Sulfadiazine, clarithromycin, erythromycin-H2O, and ciprofloxacin posed a high risk to algae, while the mixture of antibiotics could pose a high risk to aquatic organisms in the crab ponds. Overall, the usage of antibiotics in farming ponds should be comprehensively investigated and controlled to preserve a healthy aquaculture ecosystem.

  9. Frequent occurrence of nonprimate hepacivirus infections in Thoroughbred breeding horses - A cross-sectional study for the occurrence of infections and potential risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Claudia; Campe, Amely; Walter, Stephanie; Pfaender, Stephanie; Welsch, Kathrin; Ruddat, Inga; Sieme, Harald; Feige, Karsten; Steinmann, Eike; Cavalleri, Jessika M V

    2017-05-01

    Recently, several new hepaciviruses have been identified of which the nonprimate hepacivirus (NPHV) - the closest relative to hepatitis C virus (HCV) discovered to date - is highly prevalent in horses. However, potential risk factors for the transmission of NPHV among horses remain still unknown. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of NPHV infections in Thoroughbreds in northern and western Germany and to identify potential risk factors associated with NPHV infections. Using a cross-sectional study design, a total of 733 serum samples from Thoroughbred broodmares and stallions from northern and western Germany were analyzed for the presence of anti-NPHV nonstructural protein 3 (NS3) antibodies and NPHV RNA using the luciferase immunoprecipitation system (LIPS) and a quantitative real-time PCR, respectively. Information regarding signalment, stud farm, breeding history and international transportation history of each horse were collected and evaluated. A frequent occurrence of NPHV was found in the study population with 453 seropositive horses (61.8%) and 134 horses (18.3%) carrying NPHV RNA. Furthermore, statistical analysis revealed that the probability of being infected decreased for horses with a transportation history with increasing age by 20% each year. For horses that stayed in Germany no association between age and infection could be observed. In conclusion, the high occurrence of NPHV infections in breeding Thoroughbreds suggests circulating NPHV infections, endemic herds or persistent shedding in these animals and revealed the association of age and international transportation as risk factor for NPHV infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors of common non-communicable diseases among urban slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Oti, Samuel; Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    The four common non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 80% of NCD-related deaths worldwide. The four NCDs share four common risk factors. As most of the existing evidence on the common NCD risk factors is based on analysis of a single factor at a time, there is a need to investigate the co-occurrence of the common NCD risk factors, particularly in an urban slum setting in sub-Saharan Africa. To determine the prevalence of co-occurrence of the four common NCDs risk factors among urban slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya. This analysis was based on the data collected as part of a cross-sectional survey to assess linkages among socio-economic status, perceived personal risk, and risk factors for cardiovascular and NCDs in a population of slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2008-2009. A total of 5,190 study subjects were included in the analysis. After selecting relevant variables for common NCD risk factors, we computed the prevalence of all possible combinations of the four common NCD risk factors. The analysis was disaggregated by relevant background variables. The weighted prevalences of unhealthy diet, insufficient physical activity, harmful use of alcohol, and tobacco use were found to be 57.2, 14.4, 10.1, and 12.4%, respectively. Nearly 72% of the study participants had at least one of the four NCD risk factors. About 52% of the study population had any one of the four NCD risk factors. About one-fifth (19.8%) had co-occurrence of NCD risk factors. Close to one in six individuals (17.6%) had two NCD risk factors, while only 2.2% had three or four NCD risk factors. One out of five of people in the urban slum settings of Nairobi had co-occurrence of NCD risk factors. Both comprehensive and differentiated approaches are needed for effective NCD prevention and control in these settings.

  11. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in waters: occurrence, toxicity, and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cizmas, Leslie; Sharma, Virender K; Gray, Cole M; McDonald, Thomas J

    2015-12-01

    Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) are compounds with special physical and chemical properties that address the care of animal and human health. PPCP have been detected in surface water and wastewater in the ng/L to µg/L concentration range worldwide. PPCP ecotoxicity has been studied in a variety of organisms, and multiple methods have been used to assess the risk of PPCP in the environment to ecological health. Here we review the occurrence, effects, and risk assessment of PPCP in aquatic systems, as well as the sustainability of current methods for managing PPCP contamination in aquatic systems. The major points are the following: (1) a number of PPCP present potential concerns at environmentally relevant concentrations. PPCP mixtures may produce synergistic toxicity. (2) Various methods have been used for the ecological risk assessment of PPCP in aquatic systems. There are similarities in these methods, but no consensus has emerged regarding best practices for the ecological risk assessment of these compounds. (3) Human health risk assessments of PPCP contamination in aquatic systems have generally indicated little cause for concern. However, there is a lack of information regarding whether antibiotic contamination in wastewater and aquatic systems could lead to an increase in clinically relevant antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic-resistant genes. (4) Over the next century, the combination of increasing global population size and potential droughts may result in reduced water availability, increased need for water reuse, and increasing concentrations of PPCP in wastewaters. The current wastewater treatment methods do not remove all PPCP effectively. This, coupled with the possibility that antibiotics may promote the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic-resistant genes, leads to concerns about the sustainability of global water supplies.

  12. Occurrence, bioaccumulation and risk assessment of dioxin-like PCBs along the Chenab river, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eqani, Syed Ali Musstjab Akber Shah; Cincinelli, Alessandra; Mehmood, Adeel; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Zhang, Gan

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the occurrence, distribution and dietary risks of seven dl-PCBs (dioxin-like PCBs) in eleven collected fish species from Chenab river, Pakistan. ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng g"−"1, wet weight) burden was species-specific and the maximum average concentrations were found in Mastacembelus armatus (5.43), and Rita rita (5.1). Correlation of each dl-PCBs with δ"1"5N%, indicated a food chain accumulation process of these chemicals into Chenab river, Pakistan. Species-specific toxicity of each dl-PCBs (WHO–PCBs TEQ) was calculated and higher values were found in three carnivore fish species i.e., M. armatus (2.5 pg TEQ g"−"1), R. rita (2.47 pg TEQ g"−"1), Securicola gora (2.98 pg TEQ g"−"1) and herbivore fish species i.e., Cirrhinus mrigala (2.44 pg TEQ g"−"1). The EDI (Estimated Daily Intake) values in most cases exceeded the WHO benchmark (4 pg WHO–TEQ kg"−"1 bw d"−"1) evidencing a potential health risk for consumers via fish consumption from Chenab river. - Highlights: • Dioxin-like PCBs in eleven collected fish species from Chenab river. • ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng/g, ww) burdens were specie-specific. • dl-PCBs (WHO-pg TEQ g"−"1ww) ranged between 0.96 and 2.9 in fish samples. • PCB-126 contribution was predominant towards total WHO dl-PCB TEQs. • Potential human health risk of dl-PCBs via fish consumption from Chenab river. - ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng g"−"1, ww) burdens in collected fish species from Chenab river, Pakistan reflected the potential human health risk via fish consumption.

  13. Risk Factors Associated with the Occurrence of Gastrointestinal Helminths among Indigenous Donkeys (Equus asinus in Northeastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Mohammed Jajere

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. This survey study was conducted from April 2014 through March 2015 in Bauchi, Yobe, and Gombe states, northeastern Nigeria, to explore the risk factors associated with the occurrence of gastrointestinal helminthosis among indigenous donkeys (Equus asinus. Materials and Methods. A total of six hundred fresh faecal samples were randomly collected from indigenous donkeys of varying age, sex, and settlements. Simple flotation and sedimentation techniques were used for the detection of helminths eggs. Results. Three gastrointestinal nematode parasites were encountered including Strongyle, Parascaris equorum, and Oxyuris equi. An overall prevalence of 98.3% was obtained, of which 78.3%, 40.3%, and 17.5% were, respectively, from Strongyle, Parascaris equorum, and Oxyuris equi. Age, sex, and season were not statistically associated with the risk of helminth infection as were the different study areas (p>0.05. However, body condition score, settlement, anthelminthic medication history, and management practices were significantly associated with the risk of gastrointestinal helminthosis. Statistically high prevalence of helminthic infections was observed in donkeys, with poor (thin body condition, from rural settlements, that were not dewormed and raised under poor management systems (p<0.001. Conclusion. It is concluded from the study that gastrointestinal helminths particularly Strongyle were endemic among the indigenous donkeys in northeastern Nigeria. Further control and preventive measures were discussed.

  14. CyanoHAB occurrence and water irrigation cyanotoxin contamination: ecological impacts and potential health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saqrane, Sana; Oudra, Brahim

    2009-12-01

    The world-wide occurrence of harmful cyanobacteria blooms "CyanoHAB" in fresh and brackish waters creates problems for all life forms. During CyanoHAB events, toxic cyanobacteria produce cyanotoxins at high levels that can cause chronic and sub-chronic toxicities to animals, plants and humans. Cyanotoxicity in eukaryotes has been mainly focused on animals, but during these last years, data, related to cyanotoxin (mainly microcystins, MCs) impact on both aquatic and terrestrials crop plants irrigated by water containing these toxins, have become more and more available. This last cited fact is gaining importance since plants could in a direct or indirect manner contribute to cyanotoxin transfer through the food chain, and thus constitute a potent health risk source. The use of this contaminated irrigation water can also have an economical impact which appears by a reduction of the germination rate of seeds, and alteration of the quality and the productivity of crop plants. The main objective of this work was to discuss the eventual phytotoxicity of cyanotoxins (microcystins) as the major agricultural impacts induced by the use of contaminated water for plant irrigation. These investigations confirm the harmful effects (ecological, eco-physiological, socio-economical and sanitary risk) of dissolved MCs on agricultural plants. Thus, cyanotoxin phytotoxicity strongly suggests a need for the surveillance of CyanoHAB and the monitoring of water irrigation quality as well as for drinking water.

  15. Risk factors for the occurrence of undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type: A case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nešić Vladimir

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The incidence rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Serbia is less than one per 100,000 citizens, which classifies it as a region with low incidence for this disease. Objective. The aim of this study was to test some hypotheses of the risk factors for undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type (UCNT in the low incidence population. Methods. A case-control study was used for the research. The study included 45 cases with histopathological diagnosis of UCNT and 90 controls. Cases and the controls were individually matched by sex, age (±3 years, and place of residence (city-village. Data were gathered about sociodemographic characteristics, occupational exposure to harmful agents, habits, diet, personal history, and family history. In the analysis of the data, conditional univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied. Results. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis UCNT was significantly positively associated with 'passive smoking' of tobacco in the family during childhood, frequent consumption of industrially manufactured food additives for enhancing flavour and frequent consumption of white bread. UCNT was significantly negatively associated with frequent consumption of margarine, olive oil and cornbread. Conclusion. In our low incidence population, an independent risk factor for the occurrence of UCNT was 'passive smoking' of tobacco in the family during childhood, use of industrially manufactured food with additives for enhancing flavour and consumption of white bread. Multicentric study enrolling a greater number of cases would be desirable.

  16. CyanoHAB Occurrence and Water Irrigation Cyanotoxin Contamination: Ecological Impacts and Potential Health Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saqrane, Sana; Oudra, Brahim

    2009-01-01

    The world-wide occurrence of harmful cyanobacteria blooms “CyanoHAB” in fresh and brackish waters creates problems for all life forms. During CyanoHAB events, toxic cyanobacteria produce cyanotoxins at high levels that can cause chronic and sub-chronic toxicities to animals, plants and humans. Cyanotoxicity in eukaryotes has been mainly focused on animals, but during these last years, data, related to cyanotoxin (mainly microcystins, MCs) impact on both aquatic and terrestrials crop plants irrigated by water containing these toxins, have become more and more available. This last cited fact is gaining importance since plants could in a direct or indirect manner contribute to cyanotoxin transfer through the food chain, and thus constitute a potent health risk source. The use of this contaminated irrigation water can also have an economical impact which appears by a reduction of the germination rate of seeds, and alteration of the quality and the productivity of crop plants. The main objective of this work was to discuss the eventual phytotoxicity of cyanotoxins (microcystins) as the major agricultural impacts induced by the use of contaminated water for plant irrigation. These investigations confirm the harmful effects (ecological, eco-physiological, socio-economical and sanitary risk) of dissolved MCs on agricultural plants. Thus, cyanotoxin phytotoxicity strongly suggests a need for the surveillance of CyanoHAB and the monitoring of water irrigation quality as well as for drinking water. PMID:22069535

  17. Falls in institutions for older adults: characterization of fall occurrences and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Rosa Soares Lavareda Baixinho

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Falls are the main accident for older adults, with consequences on functionality. Older adults impose restrictions or have restrictions imposed on their activities for fear of new falls. This prospective longitudinal study was conducted with 104 institutionalized older adults during six months with the following goals: to determine the prevalence of falls, to characterize the falls according to place, time, resulting injuries, supervision of the older adult, action performed at the time of the fall, and to relate the occurrence of the fall to the risk of falling, medical diagnoses, number of medications in use, type of medication, degree of dependency, age, and gender. The prevalence of falls was 37.5%, and they happened mostly in the bedroom, while walking after getting up from the bed. Those under risk in the Morse Fall Scale (p=0.034 and on sedatives (p=0.007 face a higher prevalence of falls. This study enables the possibility of making suggestions for practice, training and investigation.

  18. Occurrence, Seasonal Variation and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in Qingcaosha Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Qingcaosha Reservoir is an important drinking water source in Shanghai. The occurrence of five groups of antibiotics was investigated in the surface water of this reservoir over a one-year period. Seventeen antibiotics were selected in this study based on their significant usage in China. Of these antibiotics, 16 were detected, while oxytetracycline was not detected in any sampling site. The detected frequency of tylosin was only 47.92% while the other 15 antibiotics were above 81.25%. The dominant antibiotic was different in four seasons: norfloxacin was dominant in spring, and penicillinV was dominant in summer, autumn and winter, with medium concentrations of 124.10 ng/L, 89.91 ng/L, 180.28 ng/L, and 216.43 ng/L, respectively. The concentrations and detection frequencies of antibiotics were notably higher in winter than in other seasons, demonstrating that low temperature and low flow may result in the persistence of antibiotics in the aquatic environment. Risk assessment suggested that norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, penicillinV, and doxycycline in the surface water presented high ecological risks.

  19. Investigation of PPCPs in wastewater treatment plants in Greece: occurrence, removal and environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosma, Christina I; Lambropoulou, Dimitra A; Albanis, Triantafyllos A

    2014-01-01

    In the present work, an extensive study on the presence of eighteen pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in eight wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) of Greece has been conducted. The study covered four sampling periods over 1-year, where samples (influents; effluents) from eight WWTPs of various cities in Greece were taken. All WWTPs investigated are equipped with conventional activated sludge treatment. A common pre-concentration step based on SPE was applied, followed by LC-UV/Vis-ESI-MS. Further confirmation of positive findings was accomplished by using LC coupled to a high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The results showed the occurrence of all target compounds in the wastewater samples with concentrations up to 96.65 μg/L. Paracetamol, caffeine, trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole, carbamazepine, diclofenac and salicylic acid were the dominant compounds, while tolfenamic acid, fenofibrate and simvastatin were the less frequently detected compounds with concentrations in effluents below the LOQ. The removal efficiencies showed that many WWTPs were unable to effectively remove most of the PPCPs investigated. Finally, the study provides an assessment of the environmental risk posed by their presence in wastewaters by means of the risk quotient (RQ). RQs were more than unity for various compounds in the effluents expressing possible threat for the aquatic environment. Triclosan was found to be the most critical compound in terms of contribution and environmental risk, concluding that it should be seriously considered as a candidate for regulatory monitoring and prioritization on a European scale on the basis of realistic PNECs. The results of the extensive monitoring study contributed to a better insight on PPCPs in Greece and their presence in influent and effluent wastewaters. Furthermore, the unequivocal identification of two transformation products of trimethoprim in real wastewaters by using the advantages of the LTQ Orbitrap capabilities

  20. Risk to human health associated with the environmental occurrence of cyanobacterial neurotoxic alkaloids anatoxins and saxitoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testai, Emanuela; Scardala, Simona; Vichi, Susanna; Buratti, Franca M; Funari, Enzo

    2016-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are ubiquitous photosynthetic micro-organisms forming blooms and scums in surface water; among them some species can produce cyanotoxins giving rise to some concern for human health and animal life. To date, more than 65 cyanobacterial neurotoxins have been described, of which the most studied are the groups of anatoxins and saxitoxins (STXs), comprising many different variants. In freshwaters, the hepatotoxic microcystins represent the most frequently detected cyanotoxin: on this basis, it could appear that neurotoxins are less relevant, but the low frequency of detection may partially reflect an a priori choice of target analytes, the low method sensitivity and the lack of certified standards. Cyanobacterial neurotoxins target cholinergic synapses or voltage-gated ion channels, blocking skeletal and respiratory muscles, thus leading to death by respiratory failure. This review reports and analyzes the available literature data on environmental occurrence of cyanobacterial neurotoxic alkaloids, namely anatoxins and STXs, their biosynthesis, toxicology and epidemiology, derivation of guidance values and action limits. These data are used as the basis to assess the risk posed to human health, identify critical exposure scenarios and highlight the major data gaps and research needs.

  1. Cyanotoxins: producing organisms, occurrence, toxicity, mechanism of action and human health toxicological risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Franca M; Manganelli, Maura; Vichi, Susanna; Stefanelli, Mara; Scardala, Simona; Testai, Emanuela; Funari, Enzo

    2017-03-01

    Cyanobacteria were present on the earth 3.5 billion years ago; since then they have colonized almost all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. They produce a high number of bioactive molecules, among which some are cyanotoxins. Cyanobacterial growth at high densities, forming blooms, is increasing in extension and frequency, following anthropogenic activities and climate changes, giving rise to some concern for human health and animal life exposed to cyanotoxins. Numerous cases of lethal poisonings have been associated with cyanotoxins ingestion in wild animal and livestock. In humans few episodes of lethal or severe human poisonings have been recorded after acute or short-term exposure, but the repeated/chronic exposure to low cyanotoxin levels remains a critical issue. The properties of the most frequently detected cyanotoxins (namely, microcystins, nodularins, cylindrospermopsin and neurotoxins) are here critically reviewed, describing for each toxin the available information on producing organisms, biosynthesis/genetic and occurrence, with a focus on the toxicological profile (including kinetics, acute systemic toxicity, mechanism and mode of action, local effects, repeated toxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, reproductive toxicity; human health effects and epidemiological studies; animal poisoning) with the derivation of health-based values and considerations on the risks for human health.

  2. Experimental study on occurrence-time ratio measurements of air entrainment in a suction sump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inagaki, K; Funaki, J; Hirata, K

    2009-01-01

    In order to get accurate measurements of air entrainment in a suction sump, we design some new simple bubble sensors, which can detect the existence of air bubbles inside a suction pipe with no disturbances by the sensors and with a fine spatial resolution. We force on an intermittency factor γ, that is, an occurrence-time ratio of the air entrainment, and compare the result by the present sensor with those by conventional two methods; namely, visual and auditory ones. As a result, we show the criteria which specify lower-accuracy conditions in the conventional methods. By the visual method, the accuracy of the γ becomes low, when γ is less than 0.05. By the auditory method, the accuracy of γ becomes low, when the submergence depth S of the suction pipe is close to the critical one S c .

  3. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  4. Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

  5. Hypothermia in Preterm Infants in the First Hours after Birth : Occurrence, Course and Risk Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mank, Arenda; van Zanten, Henriëtte A; Meyer, Michael P; Pauws, Steffen; Lopriore, Enrico; Te Pas, Arjan B

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hypothermia is associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates. Preterm infants frequently have hypothermia when they are admitted to the NICU, but there is no data on the occurrence of hypothermia during the first hours after admission. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the occurrence

  6. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  7. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  8. Decision principles derived from risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  9. At-risk depressive symptoms and alcohol use trajectories in adolescence: a person-centred analysis of co-occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willoughby, Teena; Fortner, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Long-term longitudinal studies that examine whether there are distinct trajectories of at-risk depressive symptoms and alcohol use across the high school years (e.g., high co-occurrence) are rare in normative samples of adolescent boys and girls; yet, this assessment is of critical importance for developing effective prevention and intervention strategies. Moreover, the role of self-regulation and novelty-seeking behavior in differentiating among distinct subgroups of adolescents is not clear. To address these gaps, the present study sought to identify subgroups of adolescent boys and girls that indicated at-risk trajectories across the high school years for both depressive symptoms and alcohol use, and examined the role of delay of gratification and novelty seeking at baseline in differentiating among the subgroups. Canadian adolescents (N = 4,412; 49 % female) were surveyed at four time points (grades 9, 10, 11, and 12). Parallel process latent class growth analyses revealed four distinct subgroups for both boys and girls, encompassing high co-occurrence, depressive symptoms only, alcohol use only, and low co-occurrence. Across gender, delay of gratification at baseline differentiated among the four subgroups, with the High Co-Occurrence Group group scoring the lowest and the Low Co-Occurrence Group the highest. Lower novelty-seeking scores at baseline were associated more with being in the Depressive Symptoms Only Group relative to the other groups, particularly the Alcohol Use Only Group for boys. Thus, delay of gratification and novelty seeking may be useful in identifying youth at risk for co-occurring depressive symptoms and alcohol use trajectories, as well as at-risk trajectories for only one of these behaviors.

  10. Phthalates in dormitory and house dust of northern Chinese cities: Occurrence, human exposure, and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Ling; Song, Wei-Wei; Zhang, Zi-Feng; Ma, Wan-Li; Gao, Chong-Jing; Li, Jia; Huo, Chun-Yan; Mohammed, Mohammed O A; Liu, Li-Yan; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Li, Yi-Fan

    2016-09-15

    Phthalates are widely used chemicals in household products, which severely affect human health. However, there were limited studies emphasized on young adults' exposure to phthalates in dormitories. In this study, seven phthalates were extracted from indoor dust that collected in university dormitories in Harbin, Shenyang, and Baoding, in the north of China. Dust samples were also collected in houses in Harbin for comparison. The total concentrations of phthalates in dormitory dust in Harbin and Shenyang samples were significantly higher than those in Baoding samples. The total geometric mean concentration of phthalates in dormitory dust in Harbin was lower than in house dust. Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was the most abundant phthalate in both dormitory and house dust. The daily intakes of the total phthalates, carcinogenic risk (CR) of DEHP, hazard index (HI) of di-isobutyl phthalate (DiBP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), and DEHP were estimated, the median values for all students in dormitories were lower than adults who live in the houses. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to predict the human exposure risk of phthalates. HI of DiBP, DBP, and DEHP was predicted according to the reference doses (RfD) provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA) and the reference doses for anti-androgenicity (RfD AA) developed by Kortenkamp and Faust. The results indicated that the risks of some students had exceeded the limitation, however, the measured results were not exceeded the limitation. Risk quotients (RQ) of DEHP were predicted based on China specific No Significant Risk Level (NSRL) and Maximum Allowable Dose Level (MADL). The predicted results of CR and RQ of DEHP suggested that DEHP could pose a health risk through intake of indoor dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Prevaccination epidemiology of herpes zoster in Denmark: Quantification of occurrence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Sigrun A J; Vestergaard, Mogens; Baggesen, Lisbeth M; Pedersen, Lars; Schønheyder, Henrik C; Sørensen, Henrik T

    2017-10-09

    Herpes zoster (HZ) is a vaccine-preventable disease caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus. Unfortunately, formulation of recommendations on routine immunization is hampered by a lack of data on disease burden, since most countries do not record cases of HZ in the general population. We developed and validated an algorithm to identify HZ based on routinely collected registry data and used it to quantify HZ occurrence and risk factors in Denmark prior to marketing of the HZ vaccine. We included patients aged ≥40years with a first-time systemic Acyclovir, Valacyclovir, or Famciclovir prescription or a hospital-based HZ diagnosis in the Danish nationwide health registries during 1997-2013. In a validation substudy (n=176), we computed the proportion of persons with HZ among patients who redeemed antiviral prescriptions. In a cohort study, we computed age-specific rates of HZ (45,297,258 person-years). In a case-control study, we then computed odds ratios (ORs) for common chronic diseases and immunosuppressive factors among HZ cases (n=189,025) vs. matched population controls (n=945,111). Medical record review confirmed HZ in 87% (95% confidence interval: 79-93%) of persons ≥40years who dispensed antivirals at doses recommended for HZ. HZ rates increased from 2.15/1000 person-years in 40-year-olds to 9.45/1000 person-years in 95-year-olds. Rates were highest in women. HZ was diagnosed during hospitalization among 3.5%. As expected, persons with severe immunosuppressive conditions had the highest ORs of HZ (between 1.82 and 4.12), but various autoimmune diseases, asthma, chronic kidney disease, and inhaled glucocorticoids were also associated with increased ORs (between 1.06 and 1.64). This algorithm is a valid tool for identifying HZ in routine healthcare data. It shows that HZ is common in Denmark, especially in patients with certain chronic conditions. Prioritized vaccination of such high-risk patients might be an option in countries considering

  12. Occurrence of Perfluorooctanoic Acid and Perfluorooctane Sulfonate in Milk and Yogurt and Their Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Zhenni; Lu, Jianjiang; Liu, Zilong; Li, Shanman; Wang, Gehui; Wang, Xiaolong

    2016-10-21

    Although perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have been identified in milk and dairy products in many regions, knowledge on their occurrence in Xinjiang (China) is rare. This study was conducted to measure the levels of PFOA and PFOS in milk and yogurt from Xinjiang and to investigate the average daily intake (ADI) of these two compounds. PFOA and PFOS levels were analyzed using ultrasonic extraction with methanol and solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Retail milk and yogurt samples present higher detection rates (39.6% and 48.1%) and mean concentrations (24.5 and 31.8 ng/L) of PFOS than those of PFOA (33.0% and 37.0%; 16.2 and 22.6 ng/L, respectively). For raw milk samples, only PFOS was detected. The differences in the levels of the two compounds between samples from the north and south regions were observed, and northern regions showed higher pollution levels than southern regions. On the basis of the retail milk measurements and consumption data, the ADIs of PFOA and PFOS for Xinjiang adults were calculated to be 0.0211 and 0.0318 ng/kg/day, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated intakes of PFOA and PFOS varied among different groupings (age, area, gender, and race) and increased with increasing age. Relevant hazard ratios were found to be far less than 1.0, and this finding suggested that no imminent health damages were produced by PFOA and PFOS intake via milk and yogurt consumption in the Xinjiang population.

  13. Occurrence of Perfluorooctanoic Acid and Perfluorooctane Sulfonate in Milk and Yogurt and Their Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenni Xing

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Although perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS have been identified in milk and dairy products in many regions, knowledge on their occurrence in Xinjiang (China is rare. This study was conducted to measure the levels of PFOA and PFOS in milk and yogurt from Xinjiang and to investigate the average daily intake (ADI of these two compounds. PFOA and PFOS levels were analyzed using ultrasonic extraction with methanol and solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. Retail milk and yogurt samples present higher detection rates (39.6% and 48.1% and mean concentrations (24.5 and 31.8 ng/L of PFOS than those of PFOA (33.0% and 37.0%; 16.2 and 22.6 ng/L, respectively. For raw milk samples, only PFOS was detected. The differences in the levels of the two compounds between samples from the north and south regions were observed, and northern regions showed higher pollution levels than southern regions. On the basis of the retail milk measurements and consumption data, the ADIs of PFOA and PFOS for Xinjiang adults were calculated to be 0.0211 and 0.0318 ng/kg/day, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated intakes of PFOA and PFOS varied among different groupings (age, area, gender, and race and increased with increasing age. Relevant hazard ratios were found to be far less than 1.0, and this finding suggested that no imminent health damages were produced by PFOA and PFOS intake via milk and yogurt consumption in the Xinjiang population.

  14. Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

    2002-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

  15. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  16. Behavior of sartans (antihypertensive drugs) in wastewater treatment plants, their occurrence and risk for the aquatic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Anne; Asner, Robert; Schüssler, Walter; Kopf, Willi; Weiß, Klaus; Sengl, Manfred; Letzel, Marion

    2014-09-01

    Pharmaceuticals and other anthropogenic trace contaminants reach wastewaters and are often not satisfactorily eliminated in sewage treatment plants. These contaminants and/or their degradation products may reach surface waters, thus influencing aquatic life. In this study, the behavior of five different antihypertonic pharmaceuticals from the sartan group (candesartan, eprosartan, irbesartan, olmesartan and valsartan) is investigated in lab-scale sewage plants. The elimination of the substances with related structures varied broadly from 17 % for olmesartan up to 96 % for valsartan. Monitoring data for these drugs in wastewater effluents of six different sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Bavaria, and at eight rivers, showed median concentrations for, e.g. valsartan of 1.1 and 0.13 μg L(-1), respectively. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) were calculated and are mostly consistent with the measured environmental concentrations (MEC). The selected sartans and the mixture of the five sartans showed no ecotoxic effects on aquatic organisms in relevant concentrations. Nevertheless, the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the environment should be reduced to minimize the risk of their distribution in surface waters, ground waters and bank filtrates used for drinking water.

  17. Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, O.E.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

  18. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  19. Some new classes of consistent risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

  20. Risk factors for occurrence of displaced abomasum and their relation to nutritional management of Holstein dairy cattle

    OpenAIRE

    Behluli, Behlul; Musliu, Arben; Sherifi, Kurtesh; Youngs, Curtis R.; Rexhepi, Agim

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to identify nutritional risk factors for the occurrence of displaced abomasum (DA) in Holstein dairy cattle raised in regions with highly variable nutritional management. Feeding program data were collected from 30 dairy farms throughout Kosovo via use of a standardized questionnaire, and an AgriNIR™ Analyser was used to analyze the nutrient composition of forage (hay, corn silage) fed to cattle on those farms. A diagnosis of DA was made via auscultation/percu...

  1. Relationships of risk factors for pre-eclampsia with patterns of occurrence of isolated gestational proteinuria during normal term pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrie Macdonald-Wallis

    Full Text Available Isolated gestational proteinuria may be part of the pre-eclampsia disease spectrum. Confirmation of its association with established pre-eclampsia risk factors and higher blood pressure in uncomplicated pregnancies would support this concept.Data from 11,651 women from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children who had a term live birth but did not have pre-existing hypertension or diabetes or develop gestational diabetes or preeclampsia were used. Proteinuria was assessed repeatedly (median 12 measurements per woman by dipstick and latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of the population with different patterns of proteinuria in pregnancy.Higher maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI, younger age, nulliparity and twin pregnancy were independently associated with increased odds of any proteinuria in pregnancy. Women who experienced proteinuria showed five patterns: proteinuria in early pregnancy only (≤ 20 weeks gestation, and onset at 21-28 weeks, 29-32 weeks, 33-36 weeks and ≥ 37 weeks gestation. There were higher odds of proteinuria onset after 33 weeks in obese women and after 37 weeks in nulliparous women compared with normal weight and multiparous women respectively. Smoking in pregnancy was weakly negatively associated with odds of proteinuria onset after 37 weeks. Twin pregnancies had higher odds of proteinuria onset from 29 weeks. In women with proteinuria onset after 33 weeks blood pressure was higher in early pregnancy and at the end of pregnancy.Established pre-eclampsia risk factors were related to proteinuria occurrence in late gestation in healthy term pregnancies, supporting the hypothesis that isolated gestational proteinuria may represent an early manifestation of pre-eclampsia.

  2. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.W.

    1978-01-01

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  3. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  4. An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderson Bucker Moraes

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2 focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

  5. Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peng, Feng Jiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Nai Sheng; Windfeld, Ronja; Salvito, Daniel; Selck, Henriette; Brink, Van den Paul J.; Ying, Guang Guo

    2017-01-01

    Urban rivers may receive contamination from various sources including point sources like domestic sewage and nonpoint sources (e.g., runoff), resulting in contamination with various chemicals. This study investigated the occurrence of emerging organic contaminants (3 endocrine disrupting

  6. Gestational diabetes mellitus: risk factors development, occurrence, diagnostics and treatment (review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostenko I.V.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Gestational diabetes is defined as a violation of carbohydrate metabolism resulting in hyperglycemia of varying severity, firstly revealed or developed during the pregnancy. The article presents current data on the occurrence, etiology and pathogenesis of gestational diabetes, as well as methods for screening and diagnostics of disorders of carbohydrate metabolism during pregnancy. It explains the basic principles of diet therapy

  7. Antibiotics in surface water and sediments from Hanjiang River, Central China: Occurrence, behavior and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ying; Yan, Xue; Shen, Yun; Di, Mingxiao; Wang, Jun

    2018-08-15

    Thirteen antibiotics including sulfonamides (SAs), tetracyclines (TETs) and fluoroquinolones (FQs) were measured in Hanjiang River (HR) during two periods. The total concentrations of 13 antibiotics in surface water and sediments ranged from 3.1 to 109 ng/l and from 10 to 45 ng/g dry weight, respectively. SAs were dominant in water while the concentrations of TETs were the highest in sediments in two seasons. For their spatial distribution, total concentrations of 13 antibiotics in both matrices were significantly higher in the lower section of HR (p  5.15) due to wastewater release, agricultural activities and water transfer project. Obvious seasonal variations of sulfadiazine, sulfameter, trimethoprim and oxytetracycline in water were observed (p  4.62). Phase partition of antibiotics between water and sediments suggested a greater affinity of TETs and FQs to sediments. In addition, significantly positive relationships were found between SAs (sulfameter, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim) and sediment TOC (p Risk assessment indicated that the hazard quotients of antibiotics were higher in the sediment than those in the water. Moreover, antibiotic mixtures posed higher ecological risks to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peng, Fengjiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min

    2017-01-01

    at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae....

  9. A novel method for morphological pleomorphism and heterogeneity quantitative measurement: Named cell feature level co-occurrence matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Akira; Numata, Yasushi; Hamada, Takuya; Horisawa, Tomoyoshi; Cosatto, Eric; Graf, Hans-Peter; Kuroda, Masahiko; Yamamoto, Yoichiro

    2016-01-01

    Recent developments in molecular pathology and genetic/epigenetic analysis of cancer tissue have resulted in a marked increase in objective and measurable data. In comparison, the traditional morphological analysis approach to pathology diagnosis, which can connect these molecular data and clinical diagnosis, is still mostly subjective. Even though the advent and popularization of digital pathology has provided a boost to computer-aided diagnosis, some important pathological concepts still remain largely non-quantitative and their associated data measurements depend on the pathologist's sense and experience. Such features include pleomorphism and heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose a method for the objective measurement of pleomorphism and heterogeneity, using the cell-level co-occurrence matrix. Our method is based on the widely used Gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), where relations between neighboring pixel intensity levels are captured into a co-occurrence matrix, followed by the application of analysis functions such as Haralick features. In the pathological tissue image, through image processing techniques, each nucleus can be measured and each nucleus has its own measureable features like nucleus size, roundness, contour length, intra-nucleus texture data (GLCM is one of the methods). In GLCM each nucleus in the tissue image corresponds to one pixel. In this approach the most important point is how to define the neighborhood of each nucleus. We define three types of neighborhoods of a nucleus, then create the co-occurrence matrix and apply Haralick feature functions. In each image pleomorphism and heterogeneity are then determined quantitatively. For our method, one pixel corresponds to one nucleus feature, and we therefore named our method Cell Feature Level Co-occurrence Matrix (CFLCM). We tested this method for several nucleus features. CFLCM is showed as a useful quantitative method for pleomorphism and heterogeneity on histopathological image

  10. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  11. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  12. Occurrence, Seasonal Variation and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in Qingcaosha Reservoir

    OpenAIRE

    Yue Jiang; Cong Xu; Xiaoyu Wu; Yihan Chen; Wei Han; Karina Yew-Hoong Gin; Yiliang He

    2018-01-01

    Qingcaosha Reservoir is an important drinking water source in Shanghai. The occurrence of five groups of antibiotics was investigated in the surface water of this reservoir over a one-year period. Seventeen antibiotics were selected in this study based on their significant usage in China. Of these antibiotics, 16 were detected, while oxytetracycline was not detected in any sampling site. The detected frequency of tylosin was only 47.92% while the other 15 antibiotics were above 81.25%. The do...

  13. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  14. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  15. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  16. A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Prieto Víctor

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bovine tuberculosis (bTB is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. Results We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1 incident cattle farms, (2 number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3 prevalence in wild boar, (4 number of sampled cattle, (5 persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6 prevalence in red deer, (7 proportion of beef farms, and (8 farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. Conclusions The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive b

  17. A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Prieto, Víctor; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Barasona, José Angel; Acevedo, Pelayo; Romero, Beatriz; Rodriguez-Campos, Sabrina; Gortázar, Christian; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Vicente, Joaquín

    2012-08-30

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

  18. Risk factors for the occurrence of cardovascular system diseases in students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Dušica

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death in the majority of developed, as well as in many developing countries. The aim of this study was to determine cardiovascular risk factors in student population and to suggest possible measures for prevention. Methods. The study was carried out during 2007-2008 at the School of Medicine, University of Niš. It included 824 students in their final year (220 males, 604 females. Results. There was no significant difference in prevalence of hypertension among the male (1.81% and female students (0%. The prevalence of obesity (Body Mass Index - BMI > 30 kg/m2 was significantly higher (p < 0.001 in the male (7.27% than in the female population (1.32%. Abdominal obesity was also more frequently encountered (p < 0.01 in the male (9.09% than in female population (1.32%. Every fourth student smoked cigarettes with no significant difference between the male and female students. Alcohol consumption was a significantly higher problem (p < 0.001 in the male population (18.18% than in the female one (2.65%. Physical inactivity was more often found (p < 0.001 in the female students (65.56%, than in male ones (36.36%. By the bivariate correlation of cardiovascular risk factors, it was determined that in the male student population systolic blood pressure correlated significantly with diastolic blood pressure, BMI and waist size, whereas age correlated with sistolic blood pressure, waist size and smoking. In the female students sistolic blood pressure correlated with diastolic blood pressure, BMI and waist size; diastolic blood pressure correlated with BMI and physical inactivity; cigarette smoking correlated with alcohol consumption and age. Conclusion. Cardiovascular risk factors are present in the final-year students of the School of Medicine, University of Niš. It is necessary to insist on decreasing obesity prevalence, cigarette and alcohol consumption, and on increasing physical activity

  19. Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

    2016-11-01

    Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  1. Co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases in adolescents: Prevalence and associated factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Silva Dias de OLIVEIRA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To examine the prevalence of the behavioral risk factors – both isolated and clustered – for chronic diseases, among adolescents. Additionally, its association with various social and demographic variables was estimated. Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 1,039 high school students, from public and private schools, elected for convenience, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, as well as crude and adjusted ordinal logistic regression were used to assess the association between the variables. Results The most frequently observed risk factors were sedentary behavior (68.8%, alcohol consumption (36.8%, and overweight (26.8%. The clustering of risk factors was observed in 67.5% of the students. Being a girl (OR=1.28; 95%CI=1.01–1.63, Caucasian (OR=1.35; 95%CI=1.06–1.72 or private school student (OR=1.46; 95%CI=1.12–1.88 increased the chance of the clustering of risk factors. The co-occurrence of risk factors was predominantly observed in the case of smoking (OR=4.94; 95%CI=1.46–16.75, alcohol consumption (OR=1.43; 95%CI=1.09–1.88, high consumption of ultra-processed foods (OR=1.57; 95%CI=1.19–2.07, and sedentary behavior (OR=1.40; 95%CI=1.07–1.82. Conclusion The co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors was observed to be higher among girls, Caucasian adolescents, and private school students, as well as, among smokers, alcohol users and adolescents with sedentary habits and a high consumption of ultra-processed foods.

  2. Occurrence, distribution and ecological risk assessment of multiple classes of UV filters in surface waters from different countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Wai, Tak-Cheung; Yamashita, Nobuyoshi; Taniyasu, Sachi; Liu, Wenhua; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-12-15

    Organic UV filters are common ingredients of personal care products (PCPs), but little is known about their distribution in and potential impacts to the marine environment. This study reports the occurrence and risk assessment of twelve widely used organic UV filters in surface water collected in eight cities in four countries (China, the United States, Japan, and Thailand) and the North American Arctic. The number of compounds detected, Hong Kong (12), Tokyo (9), Bangkok (9), New York (8), Los Angeles (8), Arctic (6), Shantou (5) and Chaozhou (5), generally increased with population density. Median concentrations of all detectable UV filters were ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate (EHMC) were more likely to pose a risk to fishes and also posed high risk of bleaching in hard corals in aquatic recreational areas in Hong Kong. This study is the first to report the occurrence of organic UV filters in the Arctic and provides a wider assessment of their potential negative impacts in the marine environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Occurrence and risk factors associated with infection by Toxoplasma gondii in goats in the State of Alagoas, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulliano Aires Anderlini

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Goats are considered very susceptible to infection by Toxoplasma gondii and when this occurs during pregnancy, it may cause fetal death with subsequent fetal resorption, abortion, mummification, stillborn or the birth of weak goats. The objective of this work was to determine the occurrence of and identify risk factors for T. gondii infection in goats in different mesoregions in the State of Alagoas. METHODS: The research was conducted on 24 goat breeding farms in 10 municipalities. A total of 454 blood samples were examined for anti-T. gondii antibodies by indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. To evaluate the risk factors of toxoplasmosis in goats, questionnaires were applied analyzing the farm's production system and nutritional, reproductive and sanitary management. RESULTS: Disease occurrence was 39% with 95.8% of farms presenting seropositive animals. Significant associations were observed for mesoregion (OR = 0.23; 95%CI = 0.09 - 0.57, age (OR = 0.36; 95%CI = 0.20 - 0.64, semi-intensive herd management (OR = 8.70; 95%CI = 1.87 - 40.43, access of cats to water provided for goats (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.89-6.02 and cats feeding on placental remnants (OR = 2.73; 95%CI = 1.38 - 5.40. CONCLUSIONS: Toxoplasma gondii infection is disseminated in the State of Alagoas and the adoption of a program that monitors infection foci is required to reduce the risk factors identified in the present study.

  4. Cloud Occurrence Measurements Over Sea during the 2nd 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) Field Campaign in Palawan Archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioquia, C. T.; Uy, S. N.; Caballa, K.; Lagrosas, N.

    2014-12-01

    Ground based sky imaging cameras have been used to measure cloud cover over an area to aid in radiation budget models. During daytime, certain clouds tend to help decrease atmospheric temperature by obstructing sunrays in the atmosphere. Thus, the detection of clouds plays an important role in the formulation of radiation budget in the atmosphere. In this study, a wide angled sky imager (GoPro Hero 2) was brought on board M/Y Vasco to detect and quantity cloud occurrence over sea during the 2nd 7SEAS field campaign. The camera is just a part of a number of scientific instruments used to measure weather, aerosol chemistry and solar radiation among others. The data collection started during the departure from Manila Bay on 05 September 2012 and went on until the end of the cruise (29 September 2012). The camera was placed in a weather-proof box that is then affixed on a steel mast where other instruments are also attached during the cruise. The data has a temporal resolution of 1 minute, and each image is 500x666 pixels in size. Fig. 1a shows the track of the ship during the cruise. The red, blue, hue, saturation, and value of the pixels are analysed for cloud occurrence. A pixel is considered to "contain" thick cloud if it passes all four threshold parameters (R-B, R/B, R-B/R+B, HSV; R is the red pixel color value, blue is the blue pixel color value, and HSV is the hue saturation value of the pixel) and considered thin cloud if it passes two or three parameters. Fig. 1b shows the daily analysis of cloud occurrence. Cloud occurrence here is quantified as the ratio of the pixels with cloud to the total number of pixels in the data image. The average cloud cover for the days included in this dataset is 87%. These measurements show a big contrast when compared to cloud cover over land (Manila Observatory) which is usually around 67%. During the duration of the cruise, only one day (September 6) has an average cloud occurrence below 50%; the rest of the days have

  5. Some individual psychological characteristics as protective or risk factors for occurrence of conduct disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Jasminka

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our study included 30 pairs of siblings aged 12-18 years; one sibling with and one without conduct disorder in each pair. The aim of the study was to assess individual characteristics of those siblings, i.e. to determine differences in psychological characteristics of the siblings with regard to locus of control, stress coping strategies and frequency and structure of behavioral problems and emotions. The results suggested significant differences in individual characteristics of children with conduct disorder and their healthy siblings. These results mainly confirm previous results of foreign research on a sample of our population. Exception of findings was related to strategies for coping with stress: religious behavior that didn’t turn out as a protective factor and avoiding confrontation and withdrawal which are shown as a protective factor. These results suggest the importance of individual psychological characteristics for the occurrence of conduct disorders and have implications in therapy and in preventive work with adolescents.

  6. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in untreated and treated sewage sludge: Occurrence and environmental risk in the case of application on soil - A critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlicchi, P; Zambello, E

    2015-12-15

    This review is based on 59 papers published between 2002 and 2015, referring to about 450 treatment trains providing data regarding sludge concentrations for 169 compounds, specifically 152 pharmaceuticals and 17 personal care products, grouped into 28 different classes. The rationale of the study is to provide data to evaluate the environmental risk posed by the spreading of treated sludge in agriculture. Following discussion of the legislative scenario governing the final disposal of treated sludge in European countries and the USA, the study provides a snapshot of the occurrence of selected compounds in primary, secondary, mixed, digested, conditioned, composted and dried sludge originating in municipal wastewater treatment plants fed mainly with urban wastewater as well as in sludge-amended soil. Not only are measured values reported, but also predicted concentrations based on Kd values are reported. It emerges that in secondary sludge, the highest concentrations were found for fragrances, antiseptics and antibiotics and an attenuation in their concentrations occurs during treatment, in particular anaerobic digestion and composting. An in-depth literature survey of the (measured and predicted) Kd values for the different compounds and treated sludge are reported and an analysis of the influence of pH, redox conditions, sludge type was carried out. The data regarding measured and predicted concentrations of selected compounds in sludge-amended soil is then analyzed. Finally an environmental risk assessment posed by their occurrence in soil in the case of land application of sludge is examined, and the results obtained by different authors are compared. The most critical compounds found in the sludge-amended soil are estradiol, ciprofloxacin, ofloxacin, tetracycline, caffeine, triclosan and triclocarban. The study concludes with a focus on the main issues that should be further investigated in order to refine the environmental risk assessment. Copyright © 2015

  7. Occurrence of geogenic contaminants in private wells from a crystalline bedrock aquifer in western Quebec, Canada: Geochemical sources and health risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondu, Raphaël; Cloutier, Vincent; Rosa, Eric

    2018-04-01

    Nineteen private wells were investigated in order to evaluate the groundwater quality and the issues associated with well water use in a fractured metasedimentary aquifer of the Canadian Shield, in western Quebec (Canada). Groundwater sampling and analysis reveal that the quality of well water is both a potential aesthetic and health concern for the residents. Aesthetic problems are mainly related to the high levels of hardness and dissolved iron and manganese. Potential health risks are associated with the occurrence of brackish groundwater, high manganese concentrations, and arsenic concentrations exceeding the Canadian guideline value of 10 μg/l. Brackish groundwater is suspected to be derived from the mixing of fresh groundwaters with deep calcium-sodium-chloride brines of the Canadian Shield. The occurrences of iron, manganese and arsenic, primarily derived from the natural weathering of bedrock, are highly dependent on the geochemical conditions in groundwater, particularly the redox potential. Arsenic occurs mainly as arsenite (As(III)) and is thought to be released by the dissolution of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides under reducing conditions. Information obtained from well owners indicates that most households use ion exchange water softeners to minimize aesthetic problems of excessive hardness and dissolved iron and manganese concentrations. Homeowners generally take protective measures to reduce their exposure to arsenic when they are aware of the contamination. The exposure to arsenic and manganese may pose health risks for residents that do not take protective measures. The quality of well water is of paramount importance for human health in rural areas. Information on the contaminant sources and individual mitigation measures is essential to assess the health risks associated with groundwater consumption and to ensure the protection of public health.

  8. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  9. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban soil of Novi Sad, Serbia: occurrence and cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Škrbić, Biljana D; Đurišić-Mladenović, Nataša; Tadić, Đorđe J; Cvejanov, Jelena Đ

    2017-07-01

    Contents of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were analyzed in 30 soil samples from 15 locations in Novi Sad, Serbia, assessing for the first time the corresponding health risks in the Serbian urban zone. Total concentrations were in the range of 22-2247 μg kg -1 , with a mean and median value of 363 and 200 μg kg -1 , respectively. Comparison with the relevant maximum allowed contents proposed by the Serbian government and with the Dutch target values implied that soils from the urban area of Novi Sad were "suitable as residential soils" and that no intervention would be needed if the current levels were retained. Seven diagnostic ratios were calculated, indicating the pyrogenic sources of PAHs as the dominant. Cancer risks in humans via accidental ingestion, inhalation of soil particles, and dermal contact with soil were estimated. Cancer risk for soil ingestion by children was the highest. The total lifetime carcinogenic risk as sum of individual cancer risks for seven carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was within the range 10 -4 to 10 -6 , indicating acceptable risks at 30 and 47% of sites for children and adults, respectively. However, for the rest of the samples, total lifetime cancer risk was >10 -4 indicating over the acceptable risk, even though the contents in soil were not of concern as the comparison with the environmental guidance previously showed. This could be explained by (a) the dominant concentrations of higher molecular weight compounds with 4 to 6 rings, among which there are compounds with higher toxicity equivalents, but also with (b) the extreme conditions used for the conservative risk assessment under maximal exposure frequency, exposure time, and ingestion rates.

  10. The occurrence and ecological risk assessment of phthalate esters (PAEs) in urban aquatic environments of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling; Liu, Huayong; Wan, Guisheng; Zhang, Shaowei

    2015-07-01

    Phthalate esters (PAEs) are widely used in the manufacturing of plastics, and the demand for PAEs has grown rapidly, especially in China. This trend will lead to much more environmental PAE contamination. PAEs are listed as priority substances in the European Union and are therefore subject to ecological risk assessments. This paper reviews the literature concerning the pollution status of PAEs and their ecological risk to aquatic environments. Risk quotients (RQs) based on the predicted no effect concentration and PAE concentrations in aquatic environments demonstrated significant (10 ≤ RQ plastics are produced.

  11. Occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment - A critical review and an initial risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wik, Anna; Dave, Goeran

    2009-01-01

    This review summarizes the existing knowledge on the occurrence of tire wear particles in the environment, and their ecotoxicological effects. A meta-analysis on tire components in the environment revealed that tire wear particles are present in all environmental compartments, including air, water, soils/sediments, and biota. The maximum Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of tire wear particles in surface waters range from 0.03 to 56 mg l -1 and the maximum PECs in sediments range from 0.3 to 155 g kg -1 d.w. The results from our previous long-term studies with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs). The upper ranges for PEC/PNEC ratios in water and sediment were >1, meaning that tire wear particles present potential risks for aquatic organisms. We suggest that management should be directed towards development and production of more environmentally friendly tires and improved road runoff treatment. - The literature on the occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment is critically reviewed, and the risks to the aquatic environment are assessed

  12. Risk assessment related to biogenic amines occurrence in ready-to-eat baby foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowska-Mysłek, Anna; Leszczyńska, Joanna

    2017-07-01

    Potential adverse reactions among infants and young children could appear after consumption of food containing small amounts of bioactive amines. This study presents the first assessment of biogenic amines occurrence in ready-to-eat vegetable without/with fish, meat and fruit baby products intended for the youngest consumers. The biogenic amine profiles and quantities of 6 amines were evaluated in 68 commercial baby foods produced by 10 leading manufacturers available in Poland, using HPLC-APCI-MS method. The total amine contents in analyzed products were obtained in the range of 1283-101421 ng/g. The maximum level of histamine (2375 ng/g) was found in the sample with spinach, tyramine (1667 ng/g) in fruit sample with banana, and of di- and polyamines (1263-53416 ng/g) in samples containing green peas. The results of amine analysis in baby foods indicated the presence of food ingredients which may be necessary to remove (tuna, possibly spinach) or reduce the amount added (spinach, green peas), either reduce their use by infants under 12 months of age (beef). Special attention should also be given to control the consumption of fruit baby products containing banana (higher tyramine and putrescine level). On the basis of obtained results a potential %ARfD, and the BAI were also evaluated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Occurrence and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements and typical organic pollutants in contaminated rural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongfeng; Dai, Shixiang; Meng, Ke; Wang, Yuting; Ren, Wenjie; Zhao, Ling; Christie, Peter; Teng, Ying

    2018-07-15

    The residual levels and risk assessment of several potentially toxic elements (PTEs), phthalate esters (PAEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in rural soils near different types of pollution sources in Tianjin, China, were studied. The soils were found to be polluted to different extents with PTEs, PAEs and PAHs from different pollution sources. The soil concentrations of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), acenaphthylene (Any) and acenaphthene (Ane) were higher than their corresponding regulatory reference limits. The health risk assessment model used to calculate human exposure indicates that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from selected pollutants were generally acceptable or close to acceptable. Different types of pollution sources and soil physicochemical properties substantially affected the soil residual concentrations of and risks from these pollutants. PTEs in soils collected from agricultural lands around industrial and residential areas and organic pollutants (PAEs and PAHs) in soils collected from agricultural areas around livestock breeding were higher than those from other types of pollution sources and merit long-term monitoring. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers: Guangzhou as a case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Feng-Jiao; Pan, Chang-Gui; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Nai-Sheng; Windfeld, Ronja; Salvito, Daniel; Selck, Henriette; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ying, Guang-Guo

    2017-07-01

    Urban rivers may receive contamination from various sources including point sources like domestic sewage and nonpoint sources (e.g., runoff), resulting in contamination with various chemicals. This study investigated the occurrence of emerging organic contaminants (3 endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), and 17 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs)) in six urban rivers of a representative subtropical city, Guangzhou (southern China). Our results showed that EDCs and personal care products were frequently detected in the water phase and sediment phase. 4-nonylphenol (4-NP) was the most predominant compound with the highest concentration of 5050ng/L in the water phase and 14,400ng/g dry weight (dw) in the sediment. Generally, higher total concentrations of EDCs and PPCPs were detected in the four urban streams compared to the main stream Zhujiang River and the Liuxi River at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae. Higher contamination of EDCs and PPCPs was observed in rivers in urban area; 4-nonylphenol and triclosan showed RQs>1 in >70% of the reported area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Occurrence of antibiotics in soils and manures from greenhouse vegetable production bases of Beijing, China and an associated risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cheng; Chen, Jiayi; Wang, Jihua; Ma, Zhihong; Han, Ping; Luan, Yunxia; Lu, Anxiang

    2015-07-15

    The occurrence of 15 antibiotics in soil and manure samples from 11 large-scale greenhouse vegetable production (GVP) bases in Beijing, China was investigated. Results showed that the greenhouse soils were ubiquitously contaminated with antibiotics, and that antibiotic concentrations were significantly higher in greenhouses than in open field soils. The mean concentrations of four antibiotic classes decreased in the following order: tetracyclines (102μg/kg)>quinolones (86μg/kg)>sulfonamides (1.1μg/kg)>macrolides (0.62μg/kg). This investigation also indicated that fertilization with manure and especially animal feces might be the primary source of antibiotics. A risk assessment based on the calculated risk quotients (RQs) demonstrated that oxytetracycline, chlortetracycline, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin could pose a high risk to soil organisms. These results suggested that the ecological effects of antibiotic contamination in GVP bases and their potential adverse risks on human health need to be given special attention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk factors for the occurrence of undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type: A case-control study

    OpenAIRE

    Nešić Vladimir; Šipetić Sandra; Vlajinac Hristina; Stošić-Divjak Svetlana; Ješić Snežana

    2010-01-01

    Introduction. The incidence rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Serbia is less than one per 100,000 citizens, which classifies it as a region with low incidence for this disease. Objective. The aim of this study was to test some hypotheses of the risk factors for undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type (UCNT) in the low incidence population. Methods. A case-control study was used for the research. The study included 45 cases with histopathological diagnosis of UCNT and 90 controls. ...

  17. Pesticides in the surface waters of Lake Vistonis Basin, Greece: Occurrence and environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadakis, Emmanouil-Nikolaos; Tsaboula, Aggeliki; Kotopoulou, Athina; Kintzikoglou, Katerina; Vryzas, Zisis; Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, Euphemia

    2015-12-01

    A study was undertaken for the evaluation of the pesticide pollution caused by the agricultural activities in the basin of Lake Vistonis, Greece during the years 2010-2012. Water samples were collected from Lake Vistonis, four major rivers and various small streams and agriculture drainage canals. The concentration of 302 compounds was determined after solid-phase extraction of the water samples and subsequent LC-MS/MS and GC-MS/MS analysis of the extracts. Overall, herbicides were the most frequently detected pesticides (57%), followed by insecticides (28%) and fungicides (14%). In Lake Vistonis 11 pesticides were detected. Specifically, fluometuron was detected in the 75% of the samples (maximum concentration 0.088 μg/L) whereas lambda-cyhalothrin was detected in all the samples of spring 2011 and alphamethrin in all the samples of spring 2012 (maximum concentration 0.041 and 0.168 μg/L, respectively). In the rivers and drainage canals 68 pesticides were detected. Specifically, fluometuron was detected in the 53% of the samples (maximum concentration 317.6 μg/L) followed by chlorpyrifos and prometryn (16 and 13% of the samples respectively). An environmental risk assessment was performed by employing the Risk Quotient (RQ) method. The risk assessment revealed that at least one pesticide concentration led to a RQ>1 in 20% of the samples. In Lake Vistonis, alphamethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin concentrations resulted in RQ>1, whereas in the other water bodies this was mainly the result of chlorpyrifos-methyl and alphamethrin exposure. In contrast, herbicide and fungicide concentrations contributed substantially less to environmental risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The occurrence, exposure and risk assessment of perfluoroalkyl acids in food from mainland, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinxuan; Zhang, Ruobing; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Yanping

    2017-11-01

    To study the contamination of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in Chinese food and the risk of dietary exposure for the Chinese population, the data of 17 PFAAs covering 38 cities throughout China in 15 groups of foods were collected for meta-analysis from published and available research literature. Using food consumption and body weight parameters, estimated dietary intakes (EDIs) were calculated for evaluation using the Scenario-Based Risk Assessment (SceBRA) modelling. Among food groups, the highest ΣPFAAs concentrations and EDI contributions were both found in poultry (363 ng/g), fish and shrimp (313 ng/g), dark vegetables (309 ng/g), fruits (116 ng/g) and pork (25 ng/g). The EDI of adults in the high-exposure scenario was about twice that of the intermediate-exposure scenario, while the EDI of children was about twice that of adults' EDI in the intermediate-exposure scenario. In addition, the PFOS EDI for children under high exposure approached its tolerable daily intake (TDI). Therefore high dietary exposure to PFAAs is giving rise to an increased health risk, especially for children.

  19. Characterization of pharmaceutically active compounds in Dongting Lake, China: Occurrence, chiral profiling and environmental risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ruixue; Wang, Bin; Lu, Shaoyong; Zhang, Yizhe; Yin, Lina; Huang, Jun; Deng, Shubo; Wang, Yujue; Yu, Gang

    2016-07-01

    Twenty commonly used pharmaceuticals including eight chiral drugs were investigated in Dongting Lake, China. The contamination level was relatively low on a global scale. Twelve pharmaceuticals were identified. The most abundant compound was caffeine followed by diclofenac, DEET, mefenamic acid, fluoxetine, ibuprofen and carbamazepine with mean concentrations from 2.0 to 80.8ngL(-1). Concentrations between East and West Dongting Lake showed spatial difference, with the West Dongting Lake less polluted. The relatively high ratio of caffeine versus carbamazepine (over 50) may indicate there was possible direct discharge of domestic wastewater into the lake. This is the first study presenting a survey allowing for comprehensive analysis of multiclass achiral and chiral pharmaceuticals including beta-blockers, antidepressants and anti-inflammatory drugs in freshwater lake. The enantiomeric compositions presented racemic to weakly enantioselective, with the highest enantiomeric fraction (EF) of 0.63 for fluoxetine. Meanwhile, venlafaxine was identified and evaluated the environment risk in surface water in China for the first time. The results of risk assessment suggested that fluoxetine, venlafaxine and diclofenac acid might pose a significant risk to aquatic organisms in Dongting Lake. The resulting data will be useful to enrich the research of emerging pollutants in freshwater lake and stereochemistry for environment investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Cycling to work in Brazil: users profile, risk behaviors, and traffic accident occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacchieri, Giancarlo; Barros, Aluísio J D; Dos Santos, Janaína V; Gigante, Denise P

    2010-07-01

    In 2006, we carried out a cross-sectional study in the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, with the aim of outlining the profile of bicycle commuters, analyzing their use of safety equipment and risk behaviors and the association between these variables and involvement in traffic accidents in the previous 12 months. This study was based on the baseline survey carried out prior to an educational intervention aimed at reducing accidents among cyclists. The sample included 1133 male subjects aged 20 years or more, and who used a bicycle for commuting. Crude and adjusted analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. We recorded a total of 152 reported traffic accidents in the 12 months preceding the interview, involving 10.8% of subjects. Most risk behaviors studied and the use of safety equipment showed no significant association with accidents. Only commuting by bicycle seven days per week, as opposed to five or six, and a combination of extremely imprudent behaviors such as zigzagging through traffic, riding after ingesting alcohol, and high-speed riding were found to be risk factors for accidents. Our findings suggest that in the context where the study was done (poor road signaling, limited policing, aggressive driving) changing cyclist behavior may not have substantial impact in terms of accident reduction before other road traffic interventions are implemented. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Occurrence and risk assessment of population exposed to deoxynivalenol in foods derived from wheat flour in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Milena Veronezi; Pante, Giseli Cristina; Romoli, Jéssica Cristina Zoratto; de Souza, Alexandra Perdigão Maia; Rocha, Gustavo Henrique Oliveira da; Ferreira, Flavio Dias; Feijó, Adriane Lettnin Roll; Moscardi, Salesia Maria Prodócimo; de Paula, Karina Ruaro; Bando, Erika; Nerilo, Samuel Botião; Machinski, Miguel

    2018-03-01

    Deoxynivalenol (DON) is the most important of the trichothecenes in terms of amounts and occurrence in wheat. This compound was shown to be associated with a glomerulonephropathy involving an increase of immunoglobulin A in humans. This study assessed the occurrence of DON in wheat flour and the exposure of Brazilian teenagers, adults and elderly to this mycotoxin due to intake of wheat flour-based products. DON extraction in wheat flour was carried out by solid phase extraction and the quantification was performed by ultra-high proficiency liquid chromatography with diode-array detection. A total of 77.9% of all samples were positive for DON, with concentrations ranging from 73.50 to 2794.63 µg kg -1 . The intake was calculated for the average and 90th percentile of the contamination levels of DON in foods based-wheat for teenagers, adults and elderly in Brazil, and compared with the provisional maximum tolerable daily intakes (PMTDI). Females of all age groups were exposed to DON at higher levels when compared to males in regard of consumption of breads and pastas. Teenagers were the main consumers of foods derived from wheat flour, with maximum probable daily intakes of 1.28 and 1.20 µg kg -1 b.w. day -1 for females and males, respectively. This population is at an increased risk of exposure to DON due to consumption of wheat flour-based foods in Brazil.

  2. The importance of timely ophthalmologic examination in preterm infants at risk of retinopathy occurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Sanja

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is a multifactorial disease in premature infants. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of ROP in children treated at the Center of Neonatology, Pediatric Clinic, Clinical Center in Kragujevac, Serbia. Methods. The study covered all children with birth weight below 2,000 g and/or gestational age below the 37th week, who from June 2006 to December 2009 underwent ophthalmological examination for ROP. The results of fundoscopy were classified in accordance with the International Classification of ROP. The treatment of infants and those with ROP was conducted in accordance with the early treatment of ROP study recommendations. We analyzed gestational age, birth weight and postconceptional age in two groups: healthy infants and those with severe form of ROP. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 16. Results. A total of 478 children met the criteria of screening for ROP. Severe stage of ROP, which required laser treatment, had 102 (21.3% children. Out of the infants with severe ROP 14 (13.7% of the infants with APD had aggressive posterior disease, while two (0.4% remained blind. The differences in the mean values of gestational age between the healthy and the children with severe form of the disease were statistically significant (p < 0.0005. The mean value of gestational age for the healthy children was 33.33 ± 2.28 weeks and for the seek infants 30.66 ± 2.79 weeks. The mean value of the weight in healthy children was 1.981 ± 407 g, and in sick children 1.535 ± 434 g which was statistically significant (p < 0.0005. Multivariate binary logistic regression showed that the occurrence of the disease depends on body weight and gestational age. Conclusion. The incidence of severe forms of ROP was 21.3%. Aggressive form of ROP was present in 13.7% of the children. The cut-off value for body weight was 1.740 g, and for gestational age 32.5 weeks.

  3. Homocysteine Slovakia study: study design and occurrence of hyperhomocysteinaemia and other risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lietava, J; B, B Vohnout; Dukat, A; Fodor, G J

    2012-01-01

    Slovakia belong to the European Union countries with the high incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in general and IHD in particular. Homocystein-Slovakia is crossectional population study realised in subjects in high risk age 35-75 years in two groups. The first consists of patients with verified stable ischemic heart disease (IHD) (M= 152; F = 167) aged 60.8±9.37 yrs (males) res. 63.1±7.56 years (females) (NS) who were randomly selected from two cardiological registrars. Second population was formed by general population who were dichotomised according their medical records into IHD patients (M= 31, F= 53) and apparently healthy controls (M= 47; F = 55), the later in significantly younger age as patients, but in same age for intergender comparison 49.6±10.3 vs 46.6±9.2 yrs (NS). We found very high prevalence of classic as well as newer risk factors and risk markers both in IHD patients and in controls. Increased homocysteinen (Hcy >15 µmo/l for males and Hcy >13 µmo/l for females) was found even in 32.9 % of patients and 13.6 % of controls (pHomocystein Slovakia study found very high prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in patients with stable ischemic heart disease. Even the prevalence in healthy controls correspond to data reported for MI patients in Western countries. Vitamins regulating metabolism of homocysteine also shown high prevalence, however, without differences between IHD patients and controls (Tab. 5, Fig. 1, Ref. 27).

  4. Occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment--a critical review and an initial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wik, Anna; Dave, Göran

    2009-01-01

    This review summarizes the existing knowledge on the occurrence of tire wear particles in the environment, and their ecotoxicological effects. A meta-analysis on tire components in the environment revealed that tire wear particles are present in all environmental compartments, including air, water, soils/sediments, and biota. The maximum Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of tire wear particles in surface waters range from 0.03 to 56 mg l(-1) and the maximum PECs in sediments range from 0.3 to 155 g kg(-1) d.w. The results from our previous long-term studies with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs). The upper ranges for PEC/PNEC ratios in water and sediment were >1, meaning that tire wear particles present potential risks for aquatic organisms. We suggest that management should be directed towards development and production of more environmentally friendly tires and improved road runoff treatment.

  5. Questionnaire Survey on the Occurrence of Risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection amongst Farmers in Thika District, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Ogendi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A survey was conducted to determine the occurrence of risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection amongst farmers in Thika District, Kenya. Interviews were conducted in a total of 385 households using a structured questionnaire. The water consumed at household level originated from taps (74.3%, rivers or streams (15.1%, wells (5.4% and boreholes (5.2%. A number of households (46.8% consumed water without boiling or applying any form of treatment. All respondents washed vegetables before cooking, whilst 99.0% washed fruits before eating. Boiled milk was preferred by 99.5% of the farmers. The majority (85.2% consumed beef more often, whilst 1.6% consumed pork. The majority (98.7% consumed thoroughly cooked meat. Meat was preserved by 17% of farmers. Only four farmers (1.2% who practised mixed farming used gloves when handling livestock manure. Five farmers (1.6% reported the occurrence of abortion in ruminants and pigs on their farms within the last two years before the study. Almost half (44.9% of the households owned cats, which were kept mainly as pets (79.8% and for deterring rodents (20.2%. The majority of households (91.3% fed the cats on leftovers, whilst 8.1% fed cats with raw offal. Sixteen households (9.2% provided housing for cats. Only five households (2.8% had litter boxes, but none of the households with litter boxes used gloves when cleaning them out. Disposal of cat faeces was done mainly by women (55.5%. Only one farmer (0.3% had some knowledge about toxoplasmosis, but was not aware of the transmission mechanism. The study highlights the need for public health education to raise awareness of risk factors for toxoplasmosis.

  6. Combining Phylogenetic and Occurrence Information for Risk Assessment of Pest and Pathogen Interactions with Host Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel L. Robles-Fernández

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Phytosanitary agencies conduct plant biosecurity activities, including early detection of potential introduction pathways, to improve control and eradication of pest and pathogen incursions. For such actions, analytical tools based on solid scientific knowledge regarding plant-pest or pathogen relationships for pest risk assessment are needed. Recent evidence indicating that closely related species share a higher chance of becoming infected or attacked by pests has allowed the identification of taxa with different degrees of vulnerability. Here, we use information readily available online about pest-host interactions and their geographic distributions, in combination with host phylogenetic reconstructions, to estimate a pest-host interaction (in some cases infection index in geographic space as a more comprehensive, spatially explicit tool for risk assessment. We demonstrate this protocol using phylogenetic relationships for 20 beetle species and 235 host plant genera: first, we estimate the probability of a host sharing pests, and second, we project the index in geographic space. Overall, the predictions allow identification of the pest-host interaction type (e.g., generalist or specialist, which is largely determined by both host range and phylogenetic constraints. Furthermore, the results can be valuable in terms of identifying hotspots where pests and vulnerable hosts interact. This knowledge is useful for anticipating biological invasions or spreading of disease. We suggest that our understanding of biotic interactions will improve after combining information from multiple dimensions of biodiversity at multiple scales (e.g., phylogenetic signal and host-vector-pathogen geographic distribution.

  7. Occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products and associated environmental risks in the central and lower Yangtze river, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chenxi; Huang, Xiaolong; Witter, Jason D; Spongberg, Alison L; Wang, Kexiong; Wang, Ding; Liu, Jiantong

    2014-08-01

    Pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) residues are being highlighted around the world as of emerging concern in surface waters. Here the occurrence of PPCPs in the central and lower Yangtze River, along with four large freshwater lakes within the river basin (Dongting, Poyang, Tai, and Chao) was reported. Fifteen out of twenty selected PPCPs were detected in the collected surface water samples. Caffeine, paraxanthine, sulfamethazine, and clindamycin were detected with 100 percent frequency in the Yangtze River. In the river, the highest average concentration was observed for erythromycin (296 ng L(-1)), followed by caffeine (142 ng L(-1)) and paraxanthine (41 ng L(-1)). In the four lakes, total PPCP concentrations were much higher in the Chao (1547 ng L(-1)) and Tai (1087 ng L(-1)) lakes compared to the Poyang (108 ng L(-1)) and Dongting (137 ng L(-1)) lakes. Lincomycin and clindamycin were most abundant in the lakes, especially in the Tai Lake. Environmental risk assessment for the worst case scenario was assessed using calculated risk quotients, and indicates a high environmental risk of erythromycin and clarithromycin in the Yangtze River, clarithromycin in the Chao Lake, and clindamycin in the Tai Lake. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

    1993-05-01

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  9. Food and feed chemical contaminants in the European Union: Regulatory, scientific, and technical issues concerning chemical contaminants occurrence, risk assessment, and risk management in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silano, Marco; Silano, Vittorio

    2017-07-03

    A priority of the European Union is the control of risks possibly associated with chemical contaminants in food and undesirable substances in feed. Following an initial chapter describing the main contaminants detected in food and undesirable substances in feed in the EU, their main sources and the factors which affect their occurrence, the present review focuses on the "continous call for data" procedure that is a very effective system in place at EFSA to make possible the exposure assessment of specific contaminants and undesirable substances. Risk assessment of contaminants in food atances in feed is carried currently in the European Union by the CONTAM Panel of EFSA according to well defined methodologies and in collaboration with competent international organizations and with Member States.

  10. Natural occurrence of genotoxic and carcinogenic alkenylbenzenes in Indonesian jamu and evaluation of consumer risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparmi, Suparmi; Widiastuti, Diana; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2018-05-01

    The consumer risks of jamu, Indonesian traditional herbal medicines, was assessed focussing on the presence of alkenylbenzene containing botanical ingredients. Twenty-three out of 25 samples contained alkenylbenzenes at levels ranging from 3.8 to 440 μg/kg, with methyleugenol being the most frequently encountered alkenylbenzene. The estimated daily intake (EDI) resulting from jamu consumption was estimated to amount to 0.2-171 μg/kg bw/day for individual alkenylbenzenes, to 0.9-203 μg/kg bw/day when adding up all alkenylbenzenes detected, and to 0.9-551 μg/kg bw/day when expressed in methyleugenol equivalents using interim relative potency (REP) factors. The margin of exposure (MOE) values obtained were generally 10,000). However, when considering use for two weeks every year during a lifetime, 5 samples still raise a concern. It is concluded that the consumption of alkenylbenzene containing jamu can be of concern especially when consumed on a daily basis for longer periods of time on a regular basis. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Occurrence, genotyping, shiga toxin genes and associated risk factors of E. coli isolated from dairy farms, handlers and milk consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awadallah, M A; Ahmed, H A; Merwad, A M; Selim, M A

    2016-11-01

    The objectives of the current study were to determine the occurrence and genotypes of E. coli in dairy farms, workers and milk consumers and to evaluate risk factors associated with contamination of milk in dairy farms. Molecular characterization of shiga toxin associated genes and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR (ERIC-PCR) finger printing of E. coli from different sources were also studied. Paired milk samples and rectal swabs from 125 dairy cows, rectal swabs from 82 calves and hand swabs from 45 dairy workers from five dairy farms were collected. In addition, 100 stool samples from 70 diarrheic and 30 healthy humans were collected and examined for the presence of E. coli. E. coli was isolated from milk (22.4%), dairy cattle feces (33.6%), calf feces (35.4%), dairy worker hand swabs (11.1%) and stools of milk consumers (2%, from diarrheic patients only). Only stx1 was identified in seven of 12 E. coli O125 isolated from different sources. High genetic diversity was determined (Simpson's index of diversity, D = 1) and E. coli O125 isolates were classified into 12 distinct profiles, E1-E12. The dendrogram analysis showed that two main clusters were generated. Mastitis in dairy cows was considered a risk factor associated with contamination of the produced milk with E. coli. The isolation of E. coli from rectal swabs of dairy cows and calves poses a zoonotic risk through consumption of unpasteurized contaminated dairy milk. Educational awareness should be developed to address risks related to consumption of raw milk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-04-15

    Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Annual and solar cycle dependencies of SuperDARN scatter occurrence and ionospheric convection measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, M.; Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) provides a long term data series which enables investigations of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The network has been in existence essentially since 1995 when 6 radars were operational in the northern hemisphere and 4 in the southern hemisphere. We have been involved in an analysis of the data over the lifetime of the project and present results here from two key studies. In the first study we calculated the amount of ionospheric scatter which is observed by the radars and see clear annual and solar cycle variations in both hemispheres. The recent extended solar minimum also produces a significant effect in the scatter occurrence. In the second study, we have determined the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection for the interval 1996 - 2011. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during solar the maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum led to an average HMB location that was further poleward than the previous solar cycle. We have also calculated the Open-Closed field line Boundary (OCB) from auroral images during a subset of the interval (2000 - 2002) and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~7o. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global images are not available. The work presented in this paper has been undertaken as part of the European Cluster Assimilation Technology (ECLAT) project which is funded through the EU FP7 programme and involves groups at

  14. Occurrence of mycotoxins in refrigerated pizza dough and risk assessment of exposure for the Spanish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiles, Juan Manuel; Saladino, Federica; Mañes, Jordi; Fernández-Franzón, Mónica; Meca, Giuseppe

    2016-08-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by filamentous fungi, as Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium. The first objective of this research was to study the presence of mycotoxins in 60 samples of refrigerated pizza dough, by extraction with methanol and determination by liquid chromatography associated with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Then, the estimated dietary intakes (EDIs) of these mycotoxins, among the Spanish population, was calculated and the health risk assessment was performed, comparing the EDIs data with the tolerable daily intake values (TDIs). The mycotoxins detected in the analyzed samples were aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), aflatoxin B2 (AFB2), aflatoxin G1 (AFG1), zearalenone (ZEA), enniatin A (ENA), enniatin A1 (ENA1), enniatin (ENB), enniatin B1 (ENB1) and BEA (beauvericin) with average concentration of the positive samples of 4.09 μg/kg, 0.50 μg/kg, 0.79 μg/kg, 77.78 μg/kg, 14.96 μg/kg, 4.54 μg/kg, 3.37 μg/kg, 1.69 μg/kg and 22.39 μg/kg, respectively. The presence of ZEA, ENA1, ENB and ENB1 was detected in 100% of the samples, AFB2 in 32%, AFB1 in 23%, ENA in 8% and BEA in 3%. Twelve percent of the samples contaminated with AFB1 and 12% of the doughs contaminated with ZEA exceeded the EU legislated maximum limits. The dietary intakes were estimated considering three different age groups of population, and the EDIs calculated for the mycotoxins detected in the samples were all below the established TDI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Occurrence and risk assessment of phthalate esters (PAEs) in vegetables and soils of suburban plastic film greenhouses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Chen, Gangcai; Christie, Peter; Zhang, Manyun; Luo, Yongming; Teng, Ying

    2015-08-01

    Phthalate esters (PAEs) are suspected of having adverse effects on human health and have been frequently detected in soils and vegetables. The present study investigated their occurrence and composition in plastic film greenhouse soil-vegetable systems and assessed their potential health risks to farmers exposed to these widespread pollutants. Six priority control phthalates, namely dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBP), di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP), were determined in 44 plastic film greenhouse vegetables and corresponding soils. Total PAEs ranged from 0.51 to 7.16mgkg(-1) in vegetables and 0.40 to 6.20mgkg(-1) in soils with average concentrations of 2.56 and 2.23mgkg(-1), respectively. DnBP, DEHP and DnOP contributed more than 90% of the total PAEs in both vegetables and soils but the proportions of DnBP and DnOP in vegetables were significantly (p3.00mgkg(-1) but were plastic film greenhouses. Health risks were mainly by exposure through vegetable consumption and soil ingestion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

  17. Organochlorines in free-range hen and duck eggs from Shanghai: occurrence and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meng; Qiu, Yanling; Bignert, Anders; Zhou, Yihui; Zhu, Zhiliang; Zhao, Jianfu

    2015-02-01

    significant health risk for human consumption by eating eggs collected in this study.

  18. Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: An underestimated risk to temperate regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagrove, Marcus S C; Caminade, Cyril; Waldmann, Elisabeth; Sutton, Elizabeth R; Wardeh, Maya; Baylis, Matthew

    2017-06-01

    Mosquito-borne viruses have been estimated to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Many methodologies have been developed to help identify areas most at risk from transmission of these viruses. However, generally, these methodologies focus predominantly on the effects of climate on either the vectors or the pathogens they spread, and do not consider the dynamic interaction between the optimal conditions for both vector and virus. Here, we use a new approach that considers the complex interplay between the optimal temperature for virus transmission, and the optimal climate for the mosquito vectors. Using published geolocated data we identified temperature and rainfall ranges in which a number of mosquito vectors have been observed to co-occur with West Nile virus, dengue virus or chikungunya virus. We then investigated whether the optimal climate for co-occurrence of vector and virus varies between "warmer" and "cooler" adapted vectors for the same virus. We found that different mosquito vectors co-occur with the same virus at different temperatures, despite significant overlap in vector temperature ranges. Specifically, we found that co-occurrence correlates with the optimal climatic conditions for the respective vector; cooler-adapted mosquitoes tend to co-occur with the same virus in cooler conditions than their warmer-adapted counterparts. We conclude that mosquitoes appear to be most able to transmit virus in the mosquitoes' optimal climate range, and hypothesise that this may be due to proportionally over-extended vector longevity, and other increased fitness attributes, within this optimal range. These results suggest that the threat posed by vector-competent mosquito species indigenous to temperate regions may have been underestimated, whilst the threat arising from invasive tropical vectors moving to cooler temperate regions may be overestimated.

  19. Adolescent health in rural Ghana: A cross-sectional study on the co-occurrence of infectious diseases, malnutrition and cardio-metabolic risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alicke, Marie; Boakye-Appiah, Justice K.; Abdul-Jalil, Inusah; Henze, Andrea; van der Giet, Markus; Schulze, Matthias B.; Schweigert, Florian J.; Mockenhaupt, Frank P.; Bedu-Addo, George

    2017-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, infectious diseases and malnutrition constitute the main health problems in children, while adolescents and adults are increasingly facing cardio-metabolic conditions. Among adolescents as the largest population group in this region, we investigated the co-occurrence of infectious diseases, malnutrition and cardio-metabolic risk factors (CRFs), and evaluated demographic, socio-economic and medical risk factors for these entities. In a cross-sectional study among 188 adolescents in rural Ghana, malarial infection, common infectious diseases and Body Mass Index were assessed. We measured ferritin, C-reactive protein, retinol, fasting glucose and blood pressure. Socio-demographic data were documented. We analyzed the proportions (95% confidence interval, CI) and the co-occurrence of infectious diseases (malaria, other common diseases), malnutrition (underweight, stunting, iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency [VAD]), and CRFs (overweight, obesity, impaired fasting glucose, hypertension). In logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs were calculated for the associations with socio-demographic factors. In this Ghanaian population (age range, 14.4–15.5 years; males, 50%), the proportions were for infectious diseases 45% (95% CI: 38–52%), for malnutrition 50% (43–57%) and for CRFs 16% (11–21%). Infectious diseases and malnutrition frequently co-existed (28%; 21–34%). Specifically, VAD increased the odds of non-malarial infectious diseases 3-fold (95% CI: 1.03, 10.19). Overlap of CRFs with infectious diseases (6%; 2–9%) or with malnutrition (7%; 3–11%) was also present. Male gender and low socio-economic status increased the odds of infectious diseases and malnutrition, respectively. Malarial infection, chronic malnutrition and VAD remain the predominant health problems among these Ghanaian adolescents. Investigating the relationships with evolving CRFs is warranted. PMID:28727775

  20. The instability of downside risk measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga-Haszonits, I; Kondor, I

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

  1. Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duftschmid, K.E.

    1994-05-01

    A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

  2. Accuracy of determining the elements for occurrence of beds and curvature of well according to measurement data by the apparatus of a bed tiltmeter NID-1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivonosov, R.I.; Karabel' nikova, G.N.; Khatuntsev, V.G.; Salov, Ye.A.

    1979-01-01

    Questions are examined of the accuracy of determining elements for occurrence of beds and curvature of wells using data of measurement by apparatus of a bed tiltmeter NID-1. Calculated formulas and graphs are presented for different conditions of occurrence of a bed, angle of inclination of the well and its diameter. The presented data make it possible to have a differentiated approach to evaluating the results of incline measurement.

  3. Risk factors associated with the occurrence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis of the lower limb.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fenghe; Wang, Xuehu; Huang, Wen; Ren, Wei; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Mao; Zhao, Yu

    2014-08-01

    The aim of our study is to investigate the prevalence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in the lower limbs and to evaluate the associated risk factors. A total of 322 patients with acute deep venous thrombosis confirmed by CT venography or Doppler ultrasonography were studied. The diagnosis of silent pulmonary embolism was established by computed tomography pulmonary arteriography (CTPA). The association between covariates and the prevalence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs were assessed using chi-square test and multivariable regression. The incidence of silent pulmonary embolism was 33.5% (108 in 322 patients) in all patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. Chi-square test showed male gender, the right lower limb, proximal location of the thrombus, unprovoked venous thrombosis and coexisting heart diseases were related to a higher incidence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. The multivariate regression analysis confirmed that the risk factors associated with silent pulmonary embolism in deep venous thrombosis patients included the right side and proximal location of the thrombus (odds ratio: 2.023, 95% CI: 1.215-3.368; odds ratio: 3.610, 95% CI: 1.772-7.354), unprovoked venous thrombosis (odds ratio: 2.037, 95% CI: 1.188-3.493), coexisting heart diseases (odds ratio: 4.507, 95% CI: 2.667-7.618). Silent pulmonary embolism occurred frequently in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. The right side, the proximal location of the thrombus, unprovoked venous thrombosis and coexisting heart diseases increased the risk for the occurrence of silent pulmonary embolism. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  4. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness...... are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially...

  5. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    . Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

  6. Quarter and cow risk factors associated with the occurrence of clinical mastitis in dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, J E; Green, M J; Bradley, A J

    2009-06-01

    Quarter and cow risk factors associated with the development of clinical mastitis (CM) during lactation were investigated during a 12-mo longitudinal study on 8 commercial Holstein-Friesian dairy farms in the southwest of England. The individual risk factors studied on 1,677 cows included assessments of udder and leg hygiene, teat-end callosity, and hyperkeratosis; body condition score; and measurements of monthly milk quality and yield. Several outcome variables for CM were used for statistical analysis, which included use of generalized linear mixed models. Significant covariates associated with an increased risk of CM were increasing parity, decreasing month of lactation, cows with very dirty udders, and quarters with only very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end. Thin and moderate smooth teat-end callosity scores were not associated with an increased risk for CM. Cows that recorded a somatic cell count >199,000 cells/mL and a milk protein percentage cow body condition score and incidence of CM. Of the cases of CM available for culture, 171 (26.7%) were confirmed as being caused by Escherichia coli and 121 (18.9%) confirmed as being caused by Streptococcus uberis. Quarters with moderate and very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end were at significantly increased risk of clinical E. coli mastitis before the next visit. Quarters with very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end were significantly more likely to develop clinical Strep. uberis mastitis before the next visit. There were strong trends within the data to suggest an association between very dirty udders (an increased risk of clinical E. coli mastitis) and teat-ends with no callosity ring present (an increased risk of clinical Strep. uberis mastitis). These results highlight the importance of individual quarter- and cow-level risk factors in determining the risk of CM associated with environmental pathogens during lactation.

  7. Exposure to firework chemicals from production factories in pregnant women and risk of preterm birth occurrence in Liuyang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xun; Tan, Hongzhuan; Luo, Meiling; Wu, Xinrui; Huang, Xin; Zhou, Shujin; Shen, Lin; He, Yue; Liu, Yi; Hu, Li; Chen, Mengshi; Hu, Shimin; Wen, Shi Wu

    2018-01-01

    In the production of fireworks, various pollutants including particles of metals and organic compounds are released into the environment. Although the adverse effects of these air pollutants are known, the impact on pregnant women residing in this area remains to be determined. The aim of this study was to examine the association between maternal exposure to fireworks production chemicals and frequency of preterm birth in Liuyang, China. Maternal exposure to fireworks production was estimated at the residential district level and assessed using factory density, which was defined as the number of fireworks factories per 1000 residents in each district. The association of maternal exposure to particulates released from fireworks production plants with frequency of preterm birth was determined using data obtained from a cohort study conducted in Liuyang, China. Data were analyzed utilizing linear regression and logistic regression. There was no significant association between factory density and spontaneous preterm or medically induced preterm birth. Unexpectedly, pregnant women residing in areas with higher density of fireworks factories were at a reduced risk of preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM). Data demonstrated that residential density of fireworks factories appeared to be negatively correlated with preterm birth rate as evidenced by PPROM. At present, it is difficult to reconcile the inverse relationship between firework chemical exposure and frequency of preterm births as ambient particulate inhalation is known to adversely affect preterm birth occurrence.

  8. Current issues in ALS epidemiology: Variation of ALS occurrence between populations and physical activity as a risk factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, J; Logroscino, G; Couratier, P; Marin, B

    2017-05-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare neurodegenerative disease with a fatal outcome. This review aims to report key epidemiological features of ALS in relation to the hypothesis of variation between populations, to summarize environmental hypothesis and to highlight current issues that deserve much considerations. Epidemiological ALS studies have shown a variation of incidence, mortality and prevalence between geographical areas and different populations. These data could support the notion that genetic factors, especially populations' ancestries, along with environmental and lifestyle factors, play a significant role in the occurrence of the disease. To date, there is no strong evidence to confirm an association between a particular environmental factor and ALS. Physical activity (PA) has been extensively evaluated. Recent studies support with the best evidence level that PA in general population is not a risk factor for ALS. However, further research is needed to clarify the association of PA in some occupations and some athletic activities. Epidemiological research based on multicenter international collaboration is essential to provide new data on ALS especially in some regions of the world that are to date poorly represented in the ALS literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. Occurrence, enantiomeric signature and ecotoxicological risk assessment of HCH isomers and DDT metabolites in the sediments of Kabul River, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aamir, Muhammad; Khan, Sardar; Niu, Lili; Zhu, Siyu; Khan, Anwarzeb

    2017-08-01

    Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) metabolites were analyzed in sediments of three different depths (0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm) collected from Kabul River, Pakistan, in February 2014. The occurrence levels, enantiomer fractions and potential ecological risk of these organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were evaluated. The total concentrations of ∑HCHs and ∑DDTs in surface sediments ranged from 4.9-23.9 ng g -1 and from 6.4-18.8 ng g -1 (dry weight basis), respectively. The vertical contamination profile of DDTs was found in order of 20-30 cm >10-20 cm >0-10 cm, indicated that the residue levels of DDTs gradually decreased after it was banned. The ratios of β-HCH/HCHs ranged from 0.04 to 0.73 (69 % of samples below 0.5) suggesting the fresh input of HCHs, while isomeric ratios of α-HCH/γ-HCH (ranged from 0.02 to 7.94), with 76 % of samples less than 3, indicating the cocktail use of technical grade HCH and lindane in the study area. The ratio of (DDE + DDD)/DDTs (ranged from 0.42 to 0.90) indicated long-term biodegradation of parent DDT. The enantiomer of α-HCH was generally racemic or close to racemic for most of the samples, with enantiomeric fraction (EF) value DDT the EF values >0.5 indicated the depletion of (-)-o,p'-DDT enantiomer in most of the samples. According to sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), HCH contamination is the main concern for ecotoxicological risk in Kabul River.

  10. Exposure to sun radiation as a risk factor for the occurrence of basal cell carcinoma in the Montenegrian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksimović Nataša

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Backgound/aim: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC is the most frequent form of carcinomas in the whites. Among the environmental factors, the most important risk factor for its occurrence is the exposure to sun radiation. The aim of this study was to assess the role of the sun radiation in the development of basal cell carcinoma BCC in the Montenegrian population. Methods. A case-control study was conducted in a period from 2002-2003. The study group included 100 histopatologically confirmed cases with BCC, while the control group included 100 patients from the same population, who did not present skin cancer and who were individually matched with the cases from the study group by sex and age (± 5 years. All the participants were interviewed using an epidemiological questionnaire. For statistical analysis, the χ2 test and univariate logistic regression analysis were used. Results. The risk for development of BCC was increased in the persons: that always had burns with no tan during the exposure to sunlight (OR = 1.75; 95% CI = 1.20-2.55; p = 0.003; that developed sunburns after two hours of the exposure to sunlight (OR = 3.72; 95% CI = 2.39-5.79; p < 0.001 that kept light tan or remained without changes in childhood and adolescence after the repeated exposures to sunlight (OR = 2.92; 95% CI = 1.89-4.52; p < 0.001 that often had severe and painful sunburns (OR = 4.48; 95% CI = 2.74-7.33; p < 0.001. Conclusion. Our study confirmed the significance of sunlight exposure for the development of BCC.

  11. Analysis, occurrence, fate and risks of proton pump inhibitors, their metabolites and transformation products in aquatic environment: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosma, Christina I.; Lambropoulou, Dimitra A.; Albanis, Triantafyllos A.

    2016-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) which include omeprazole, esomeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole and rabeprazole, are extensively used for the relief of gastro-intestinal disorders. Despite their high worldwide consumption, PPIs are extensively metabolized in human bodies and therefore are not regularly detected in monitoring studies. Very recently, however, it has been shown that some omeprazole metabolites may enter and are likely to persist in aquatic environment. Hence, to fully assess the environmental exposures and risks associated with PPIs, it is important to better understand and evaluate the fate and behavior not only of the parent compound but also of their metabolites and their transformation products arising from biotic and abiotic processes (hydrolysis, photodegradation, biodegradation etc.) in the environment. In this light, the purpose of this review is to summarize the present state of knowledge on the introduction and behavior of these chemicals in natural and engineering systems and highlight research needs and gaps. It draws attention to their transformation, the increase contamination by their metabolites/TPs in different environmental matrices and their potential adverse effects in the environment. Furthermore, existing research on analytical developments with respect to sample treatment, separation and detection of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs is provided. - Highlights: • Occurrence and fate of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs in the aquatic environment • Overview of the analytical methods applied, using LC-MS techniques • Omeprazole attended the most frequent analysis • Determination and behavior of omeprazole's metabolites/TPs in the environment • More ecotoxicological research is needed to assess the risks of PPIs.

  12. Analysis, occurrence, fate and risks of proton pump inhibitors, their metabolites and transformation products in aquatic environment: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosma, Christina I. [Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45110 (Greece); Lambropoulou, Dimitra A., E-mail: dlambro@chem.auth.gr [Department of Chemistry, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124 (Greece); Albanis, Triantafyllos A. [Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45110 (Greece)

    2016-11-01

    Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) which include omeprazole, esomeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole and rabeprazole, are extensively used for the relief of gastro-intestinal disorders. Despite their high worldwide consumption, PPIs are extensively metabolized in human bodies and therefore are not regularly detected in monitoring studies. Very recently, however, it has been shown that some omeprazole metabolites may enter and are likely to persist in aquatic environment. Hence, to fully assess the environmental exposures and risks associated with PPIs, it is important to better understand and evaluate the fate and behavior not only of the parent compound but also of their metabolites and their transformation products arising from biotic and abiotic processes (hydrolysis, photodegradation, biodegradation etc.) in the environment. In this light, the purpose of this review is to summarize the present state of knowledge on the introduction and behavior of these chemicals in natural and engineering systems and highlight research needs and gaps. It draws attention to their transformation, the increase contamination by their metabolites/TPs in different environmental matrices and their potential adverse effects in the environment. Furthermore, existing research on analytical developments with respect to sample treatment, separation and detection of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs is provided. - Highlights: • Occurrence and fate of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs in the aquatic environment • Overview of the analytical methods applied, using LC-MS techniques • Omeprazole attended the most frequent analysis • Determination and behavior of omeprazole's metabolites/TPs in the environment • More ecotoxicological research is needed to assess the risks of PPIs.

  13. Web-Based versus High-Fidelity Simulation Training for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists in the Management of High Risk/Low Occurrence Anesthesia Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimemia, Judy

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this project was to compare web-based to high-fidelity simulation training in the management of high risk/low occurrence anesthesia related events, to enhance knowledge acquisition for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). This project was designed to answer the question: Is web-based training as effective as…

  14. Dynamic behavior of potentially unstable soils and application of model for seismic risk reduction from liquefaction occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheshov, Vlatko

    2002-11-01

    Throughout the last decades, liquefaction phenomenon has been one of the most frequently discussed subjects in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Liquefaction has been a problem arousing considerable attention among the world scientists. The consequences from liquefaction occurrence have been present after each stronger earthquake. We have been witnesses of several strong earthquakes (Kobe - Japan, Chi Chi-Taiwan, Bhuj-India) that have occurred in the last decade. In these earthquakes, the liquefaction phenomenon caused severe damage to structures, loss of their functioning and indirect loss of human lives. Liquefaction as a phenomenon should not arouse fear but should call for serious elaboration and attention instead. The destructive nature of liquefaction could be mitigated, i.e., overcome in two ways: avoiding construction at locations characterized by high liquefaction potential which is not always possible and taking of measures for improvement of foundation soil. Finding out suitable measures for improvement of soil and thus mitigating the liquefaction potential has been the main incentive for the elaboration of this dissertation. The dissipation method involving the use of vertical drains as one of the measures for improvement of soils has been elaborated in details in this scientific work. The doctoral dissertation has been realized through experimental and analytical investigations. The experimental investigations done in the first phase represent model seismic shaking table tests of the efficiency of vertical drains (prefabricated and gravel drains). The analytical investigations in this phase have involved mathematical simulation of the effect of vertical drains upon pore pressure state during the experiments. The second phase of the experimental investigations has involved model tests of the behavior of pile foundations in soils susceptible to liquefaction with installed prefabricated drains. In this phase, the 'p - y' relationships have been

  15. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

  16. A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

    2007-01-01

    .... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

  17. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murani, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  18. Environmental occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, D.G.

    1995-01-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section

  19. Environmental occurrences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, D.G.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section.

  20. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

  1. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  2. Occurrence and risk assessment of trace metals and metalloids in sediments and benthic invertebrates from Dianshan Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yan; Zhou, Yihui; Qiu, Yanling; Chen, Da; Zhu, Zhiliang; Zhao, Jianfu; Bergman, Ǻke

    2017-06-01

    The present study measured concentrations of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb in surface sediments and two benthic invertebrate species (Anodonta woodiana and Bellamya aeruginosa) collected from Dianshan Lake, located in the Yangtze River Delta. The Dianshan Lake acts as one of the most important drinking water sources to Shanghai, the biggest city in China. Concentrations of trace metals and metalloids ranged from 0.04 mg/kg for Cd to 288.0 mg/kg for Zn. Substantial bioaccumulation in invertebrates was observed for Zn and Cu based on the biota-sediment accumulation factor (BSAF) measurements. The results revealed that concentrations of metals and metalloids in sediments from Dianshan Lake were at the lower end of the range of levels found in other regions of China. The assessment of three significantly inter-related evaluation indices, including the geo-accumulation Index (I geo ), potential ecological risk factor (Er i ), and mean probable effect concentration quotients (Q m-PEC ), suggested that sediment-associated trace elements exhibited no considerable ecological risks in the studied watershed. However, the target hazard quotient and hazard index analysis suggested that selected elements (particularly As) accumulation in edible tissues of benthic invertebrates could pose potential health risks to local populations, especially fishermen. Given that wild aquatic organisms (e.g., fish and bivalves) constitute the diet of local populations as popular food/protein choices, further investigations are needed to better elucidate human health risks from metal and metalloid exposure via edible freshwater organisms.

  3. Microplastics in aquatic food chain : sources, measurement, occurrence and potential health risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollman, P.C.H.; Bouwmeester, H.; Peters, R.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    Pollution of the environment with plastics is a growing problem, and is expected to persist for hundreds to thousands of years. As a result microplastics, plastic particles with size smaller than 5 mm, are ubiquitously present in the aquatic food chain. The present literature review shows that the

  4. Reconstruction of false spring occurrences over the southeastern United States, 1901-2007: an increasing risk of spring freeze damage?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, Garrett P; Kaiser, Dale P; Gu, Lianhong; Ricciuto, Daniel M

    2011-01-01

    Near-record warmth over much of the United States during March 2007 promoted early growth of crops and vegetation. A widespread arctic air outbreak followed in early April, resulting in extensive agricultural losses over much of the south-central and southeastern US. This 'false spring' event also resulted in widespread damage to newly grown tissues of native deciduous forest species, shown by previous researchers to have had measurable effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle. The current study reconstructed the historical occurrence of false springs over most of the southeastern quarter of the conterminous US (32-39 deg. N; 75-98 deg. W) from 1901 to 2007 using daily maximum and minimum temperature records from 176 stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network database, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. A false spring index was derived that examined the timing of the start of the growing season (SGS), or leaf emergence, relative to the timing of a potentially damaging last hard freeze (minimum temperature ≤ - 2.2 deg. C). SGS was modeled for the domain by combining EVI data with ground-based temperature 'degree day' calculations reflecting the rate of springtime warming. No significant area-wide, long-term SGS trend was found; however, over much of a contiguous region stretching from Mississippi eastward to the Carolinas, the timing of the last hard freeze was found to occur significantly later, this change occurring along with increased frequency of false springs. Earlier last hard freeze dates and decreased frequency of false springs were found over much of the northwestern part of the study region, including Arkansas and southern Missouri.

  5. Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willian Bucker Moraes

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T and air relative humidity (RH: i high risk (18 90%; ii medium risk (18 25 ºC and RH > 90%; and iii low risk (T 25 ºC and RH < 90%. Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3 was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the

  6. Occurrence of pharmaceutical compounds in urban wastewater: Removal, mass load and environmental risk after a secondary treatment—A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verlicchi, P.; Al Aukidy, M.; Zambello, E.

    2012-01-01

    This review focuses on 118 pharmaceuticals, belonging to seventeen different therapeutic classes, detected in raw urban wastewater and effluent from an activated sludge system, a usual treatment adopted for urban wastewaters worldwide prior to final discharge into surface water bodies. Data pertaining to 244 conventional activated sludge systems and 20 membrane biological reactors are analysed and the observed ranges of variability of each selected compound in their influent and effluent reported, with particular reference to the substances detected most frequently and in higher concentrations. A snapshot of the ability of these systems to remove such compounds is provided by comparing their global removal efficiencies for each substance. Where possible, the study then evaluates the average daily mass load of the majority of detected pharmaceuticals exiting the secondary treatment step. The final part of the review provides an assessment of the environmental risk posed by their presence in the secondary effluent by means of the risk quotient that is the ratio between the average pharmaceutical concentration measured in the secondary effluent and the predicted no-effect concentration. Finally, mass load rankings of the compounds under review are compared with those based on their risk level. This analysis shows that the highest amounts discharged through secondary effluent pertain to one antihypertensive, and several beta-blockers and analgesics/anti-inflammatories, while the highest risk is posed by antibiotics and several psychiatric drugs and analgesics/anti-inflammatories. These results are reported with a view to aiding scientists and administrators in planning measures aiming to reduce the impact of treated urban wastewater discharge into surface water bodies. - Highlights: ► The review refers to 118 pharmaceuticals occurring in raw and treated wastewaters. ► Data from 264 municipal WWTPs with a CAS or an MBR were analysed. ► The removal rates achieved

  7. Occurrence of pharmaceutical compounds in urban wastewater: Removal, mass load and environmental risk after a secondary treatment-A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verlicchi, P., E-mail: paola.verlicchi@unife.it [Dept. of Engineering, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy); Terra and AcquaTech Technopoles, Via Borsari 46, I-44121 Ferrara (Italy); Al Aukidy, M., E-mail: mustafakether.alaukidi@unife.it [Dept. of Engineering, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy); Zambello, E., E-mail: elena.zambello@unife.it [Dept. of Engineering, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy); Terra and AcquaTech Technopoles, Via Borsari 46, I-44121 Ferrara (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    This review focuses on 118 pharmaceuticals, belonging to seventeen different therapeutic classes, detected in raw urban wastewater and effluent from an activated sludge system, a usual treatment adopted for urban wastewaters worldwide prior to final discharge into surface water bodies. Data pertaining to 244 conventional activated sludge systems and 20 membrane biological reactors are analysed and the observed ranges of variability of each selected compound in their influent and effluent reported, with particular reference to the substances detected most frequently and in higher concentrations. A snapshot of the ability of these systems to remove such compounds is provided by comparing their global removal efficiencies for each substance. Where possible, the study then evaluates the average daily mass load of the majority of detected pharmaceuticals exiting the secondary treatment step. The final part of the review provides an assessment of the environmental risk posed by their presence in the secondary effluent by means of the risk quotient that is the ratio between the average pharmaceutical concentration measured in the secondary effluent and the predicted no-effect concentration. Finally, mass load rankings of the compounds under review are compared with those based on their risk level. This analysis shows that the highest amounts discharged through secondary effluent pertain to one antihypertensive, and several beta-blockers and analgesics/anti-inflammatories, while the highest risk is posed by antibiotics and several psychiatric drugs and analgesics/anti-inflammatories. These results are reported with a view to aiding scientists and administrators in planning measures aiming to reduce the impact of treated urban wastewater discharge into surface water bodies. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The review refers to 118 pharmaceuticals occurring in raw and treated wastewaters. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Data from 264 municipal WWTPs with a CAS or an

  8. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  9. Eligibility for interventions, co-occurrence and risk factors for unhealthy behaviours in patients consulting for routine primary care: results from the Pre-Empt study

    OpenAIRE

    Randell, Elizabeth; Pickles, Timothy; Simpson, Sharon A.; Spanou, Clio; McCambridge, Jim; Hood, Kerenza; Butler, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Background:\\ud Smoking, excessive drinking, lack of exercise and a poor diet remain key causes of premature morbidity and mortality globally, yet it is not clear what proportion of patients attending for routine primary care are eligible for interventions about these behaviours, the extent to which they co-occur within individuals, and which individuals are at greatest risk for multiple unhealthy behaviours. The aim of the trial was to examine ‘intervention eligibility’ and co-occurrence of t...

  10. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  11. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  12. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank

    2006-01-01

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  13. On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  14. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

    2006-01-01

    Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

  15. Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

    2017-10-01

    Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  16. Association between CYP2D6 Genotypes and the Risk of Antidepressant Discontinuation, Dosage Modification and the Occurrence of Maternal Depression during Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anick Bérard

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Importance: Polymorphic expression of drug metabolizing enzymes affects the metabolism of antidepressants, and thus can contribute to drug response and/or adverse events. Pregnancy itself can affect CYP2D6 activity with profound variations determined by CYP2D6 genotype.Objective: To investigate the association between CYP2D6 genotype and the risk of antidepressant discontinuation, dosage modification, and the occurrence of maternal CYP2D6, Antidepressants, Depression during pregnancy.Setting: Data from the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists (OTIS Antidepressants in Pregnancy Cohort, 2006–2010, were used. Women were eligible if they were within 14 completed weeks of pregnancy at recruitment and exposed to an antidepressant or having any exposures considered non-teratogenic.Main Outcomes and Measures: Gestational antidepressant usage was self-reported and defined as continuous/discontinued use, and non-use; dosage modification was further documented. Maternal depression and anxiety were measured every trimester using the telephone interviewer-administered Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Beck Anxiety Inventory, respectively. Saliva samples were collected and used for CYP2D6 genotype analyses. Logistic regression models were used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR with 95% confidence intervals.Results: A total of 246 pregnant women were included in the study. The majority were normal metabolizers (NM, n = 204, 83%; 3.3% (n = 8 were ultrarapid metabolizers (UM, 5.7% (n = 14 poor metabolizers (PM, and 8.1% (n = 20 intermediate metabolizers (IM. Among study subjects, 139 women were treated with antidepressants at the beginning of pregnancy, and 21 antidepressant users (15% discontinued therapy during pregnancy. Adjusting for depressive symptoms, and other potential confounders, the risk of discontinuing antidepressants during pregnancy was nearly four times higher in slow metabolizers (poor or intermediate

  17. Thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in Danish broiler production: a cross-sectional survey and a retrospective analysis of risk factors for occurrence in broiler flocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Birthe; Wedderkopp, A.; Madsen, Mogens

    2000-01-01

    In order to elucidate the rate of thermophilic Campylobacter spp, carriage in Danish broiler production and to identify risk factors for occurrence of campylobacter in broiler flocks, a total of 88 randomly selected broiler flocks were tested for campylobacter infection, and a subsequent study...... of processing, 24% of the flocks were positive. The species distribution was 87% Campylobacter jejuni, 8% Campylobacter coli and 5% Campylobacter lari, The following parameters were identified as significant risk factors: lack of a hygiene barrier (odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 1.1

  18. Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

    2017-06-30

    This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

  19. Measuring Tourism Risk Impacts on Destination Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Qi Ruan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study develops and tests an integrated model of the moderated mediation of risks (man-made and natural disasters that explains the associations between the benefits of tourism and the destination image. The study also considers how tourists are influenced by natural disasters and provides empirical evidence to predict the hypothesis models. The results of a study of 635 foreign tourists indicate that the tourism risks of man-made disasters positively influence the tourists’ experienced benefits and feeling experience. Foreign tourists’ risk evaluation may have a positive effect on their benefit and feeling experience and, thus, may link to the destination image. Somewhat as expected, the moderating effect of tourist benefit is found to strengthen the relationship between feeling experience and the destination image. Alternatively, foreign tourists’ feeling experiences foster a positive link between tourism risk and destination image. The implications of the moderated mediation results are discussed.

  20. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  1. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  2. Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Podpiera, Jiří; Weill, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 4 (2010), s. 294-306 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * risk-taking * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1189_str_294_306_-_weill-podpiera.pdf

  3. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling Using Applications of Vine Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to explore multiple dependencies. The paper features the use of Regular Vine copulas in an analysis of the co-dependencies of 10 major European Stock Markets, as represented by individual market indices and the composite STOXX 50 index. The sample runs from 2005 to the end of 2013 to permit an exploration of how correlations change indifferent economic circumstances using three different sample periods: pre-GFC (January 2005–July 2007, GFC (July 2007– September 2009, and post-GFC periods (September 2009–December 2013. The empirical results suggest that the dependencies change in a complex manner, and are subject to change in different economic circumstances. One of the attractions of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model co-dependencies. The practical application of Regular Vine metrics is demonstrated via an example of the calculation of the VaR of a portfolio made up of the indices.

  4. The co-occurrence of self-observed norm-conforming behavior, reduction of zero observations and remaining measurement quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landsheer, Johannes A

    2014-01-01

    Norm-violating behavior is characterized by clear social norms which prescribe the non-occurrence of that behavior. From the theoretical framework of Allport it is derived that specifically norm-conformation is consistent, while violating norms is expected to be inconsistent and more circumstantial.

  5. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the

  6. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  7. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  8. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  9. Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

    1983-01-01

    Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

  10. Measuring Systematic Risk Using Implicit Beta

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew F. Siegel

    1995-01-01

    A new technology is proposed for estimating the systematic (beta) risk of a firm's stock. Just as the implicit volatility of an asset is revealed by an ordinary call option, the "implicit beta" of a stock would be revealed by the price of an option to exchange shares of stock for shares of a market index. Considerable benefits would accrue to those involved with the theory and practice of finance, if and when these exchange options begin trading, due to the availability of instantaneous, up-t...

  11. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can...... deliver data that uses real consequences and where the context can be varied by the researcher. The approach relies on the controlled manipulation of contexts, similar to what is done in the Stated Choice approach, but builds in actual consequences, similar to the Revealed Preference approach. This paper...

  12. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

  13. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

  14. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

  15. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  16. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  17. Occurrence of Toxoplasma gondii and risk factors for infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in the Triângulo Mineiro region, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabielle Marques-Santos

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Triângulo Mineiro region from Minas Gerais state, is an important meat-exporting region of Brazil and data about Toxoplasma gondii infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in this area are scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of T. gondii in swine and establish the risk factors associated with the infection. Samples were collected from 600 pigs raised under intensive system in farms located at three different counties (Carmo do Paranaíba, Patrocínio and Perdizes. The samples were submitted to indirect hemagglutination antibody test with dilution of 1:32 and to indirect immunofluorescence antibody test with a cutoff of 1:64. The occurrence of positive pig was 3.3% (n=20 and 51.8% (n=311 respectively. A significant difference was observed between toxoplasmatic infection and factors such as lineage, animal origin, size of the farm, collective raising with others species, presence of rodents and type of water offered (p≤0.05. There was no difference between gender and the farm goals. The results demonstrated an occurrence of anti-T.gondii antibodies higher than expected for intensive pig raising system on the studied area, which could indicate a possible sanitary management problem on the studied proprieties. Improvements on the raising techniques are necessary to reduce T. gondii infection sources.

  18. Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

  19. The rs3957357C>T SNP in GSTA1 Is Associated with a Higher Risk of Occurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in European Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanane Akhdar

    Full Text Available Glutathione S-transferases (GSTs detoxify toxic molecules by conjugation with reduced glutathione and regulate cell signaling. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs of GST genes have been suggested to affect GST functions and thus to increase the risk of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. As GSTA1 is expressed in hepatocytes and the rs3957357C>T (TT SNP is known to downregulate GSTA1 mRNA expression, the aims of this study were: (i to explore the relationship between the TT SNP in GSTA1 and the occurrence of HCC; (ii to measure GSTA1 mRNA expression in HCCs. For that purpose, we genotyped non-tumor-tissue-derived DNA from 48 HCC patients and white-blood-cell-derived DNA from 37 healthy individuals by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP. In addition, expression of GSTA1 mRNA was assessed by real-time PCR in 18 matching pairs of HCCs and non-tumor livers. Survival analysis was performed on an annotated microarray dataset containing 247 HCC patients (GSE14520. The GSTA1 TT genotype was more frequent in HCC than in non-HCC patients (27% versus 5%, respectively, suggesting that individuals carrying this genotype could be associated with 2-fold higher risk of developing HCCs (odds ratio = 2.1; p = 0.02. Also, we found that GSTA1 mRNA expression was lower in HCCs than in non-tumor livers. HCCs expressing the highest GSTA1 mRNA levels were the smallest in size (R = -0.67; p = 0.007, expressed the highest levels of liver-enriched genes such as ALB (albumin, R = -0.67; p = 0.007 and COL18A1 (procollagen type XVIII, R = -0.50; p = 0.03 and showed the most favorable disease-free (OR = 0.54; p<0.001 and overall (OR = 0.56; p = 0.006 outcomes. Moreover, GSTA1 was found within a 263-gene network involved in well-differentiated hepatocyte functions. In conclusion, HCCs are characterized by two GSTA1 features: the TT SNP and reduced GSTA1 gene expression in a context of hepatocyte de-differentiation.

  20. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Francesco Monitillo; Marta Leone; Caterina Rizzo; Andrea Passantino; Massimo Iacoviello

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave(QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice.

  1. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  2. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  3. Co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors of common non-communicable diseases among urban slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Oti, Samuel; Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    The four common non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 80% of NCD-related deaths worldwide. The four NCDs share four common risk factors. As most of the existing evidence on the common NCD risk factors is based on analysis of a single factor at a time, there is a need to investigate the

  4. Estimating the risk of cyanobacterial occurrence using an index integrating meteorological factors: application to drinking water production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndong, Mouhamed; Bird, David; Nguyen-Quang, Tri; de Boutray, Marie-Laure; Zamyadi, Arash; Vinçon-Leite, Brigitte; Lemaire, Bruno J; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

    2014-06-01

    The sudden appearance of toxic cyanobacteria (CB) blooms is still largely unpredictable in waters worldwide. Many post-hoc explanations for CB bloom occurrence relating to physical and biochemical conditions in lakes have been developed. As potentially toxic CB can accumulate in drinking water treatment plants and disrupt water treatment, there is a need for water treatment operators to determine whether conditions are favourable for the proliferation and accumulation of CB in source waters in order to adjust drinking water treatment accordingly. Thus, a new methodology with locally adaptable variables is proposed in order to have a single index, f(p), related to various environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed and direction. The index is used in conjunction with real time monitoring data to determine the probability of CB occurrence in relation to meteorological factors, and was tested at a drinking water intake in Missisquoi Bay, a shallow transboundary bay in Lake Champlain, Québec, Canada. These environmental factors alone were able to explain a maximum probability of 68% that a CB bloom would occur at the drinking water treatment plant. Nutrient limitation also influences CB blooms and intense blooms only occurred when the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total phosphorus (TP) mass ratio was below 3. Additional monitoring of DIN and TP could be considered for these source waters prone to cyanobacterial blooms to determine periods of favourable growth. Real time monitoring and the use of the index could permit an adequate and timely response to CB blooms in drinking water sources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxi Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

  6. Hospital admission for hyperemesis gravidarum: a nationwide study of occurrence, reoccurrence and risk factors among 8.2 million pregnancies

    OpenAIRE

    Fiaschi, Linda; Nelson-Piercy, Catherine; Tata, Laila J.

    2016-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION: What are the maternal risk factors for hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) hospital admission, readmission and reoccurrence in a following pregnancy?\\ud SUMMARY ANSWER: Young age, less socioeconomic deprivation, nulliparity, Asian or Black ethnicity, female fetus, multiple pregnancy, history of HG in a previous pregnancy, thyroid and parathyroid dysfunction, hypercholesterolemia and Type 1 diabetes are all risk factors for HG.\\ud WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Women with Black or Asian ethnic...

  7. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  8. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  9. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  10. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  11. Antibiotic contamination in a typical developing city in south China: occurrence and ecological risks in the Yongjiang River impacted by tributary discharge and anthropogenic activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Baoming; Zhang, Ruijie; Wang, Yinghui; Liu, Xiang; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

    2013-06-01

    The occurrence and distribution of ten selected antibiotics from three groups (sulfonamides, macrolides, and trimethoprim) were investigated in the Yongjiang River, which flows through Nanning City, a typical developing city in China. The study also assessed the ecological risks and the potential effects caused by discharge from tributaries and anthropogenic activities. Concentrations of most of the antibiotics were elevated along the section of the river in the urban area, highlighting the significant impact of high population density and human activities on the presence of antibiotics in the environment. The concentrations in the tributaries (ranged from not detected to 1336ngL(-1)) were generally higher than those in the main stream (ranged from not detected to 78.8ngL(-1)), but both areas contained the same predominant antibiotics, revealing the importance of tributary discharge as a source of antibiotic pollution. A risk assessment for the surface water contamination revealed that sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin posed high ecological risks to the most sensitive aquatic organisms (Synechococcus leopoliensis and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, respectively) in the midstream and some tributaries. Most of the selected antibiotics presented high ecological risks (risk quotients up to 95) in the sediments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

  13. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  14. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  15. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  16. Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsbottom David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

  17. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  18. Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

    1998-01-01

    The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

  19. Antibiotics in the offshore waters of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in China: Occurrence, distribution and ecological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ruijie; Tang, Jianhui; Li, Jun; Zheng, Qian; Liu, Di; Chen, Yingjun; Zou, Yongde; Chen, Xiaoxiang; Luo, Chunling; Zhang, Gan

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is an important sink of land-based pollutants. Previous studies showed that serious antibiotic pollution occurred in the coastal waters, but limited studies focused on their presence in offshore waters. In this study, eleven antibiotics in three different categories were investigated in offshore waters of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in China. The results indicated that three antibiotics dehydration erythromycin, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim occurred throughout the offshore waters at concentrations of 0.10–16.6 ng L −1 and they decreased exponentially from the rivers to the coastal and offshore waters. The other antibiotics all presented very low detection rates ( −1 ). Although the concentrations were very low, risk assessment based on the calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that sulfamethoxazole, dehydration erythromycin and clarithromycin at most of sampling sites posed medium or low ecological risks (0.01 −1 . ► Their concentrations decreased exponentially from the rivers to the offshore waters. ► Some antibiotics in the offshore water posed medium or low risks to some organisms. -- Some antibiotics were ubiquitous in the offshore waters of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in China and posed medium or low ecological risks to some sensitive organisms

  20. Longitudinal association between habitual walking and fall occurrences among community-dwelling older adults: analyzing the different risks of falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okubo, Yoshiro; Seino, Satoshi; Yabushita, Noriko; Osuka, Yosuke; Jung, Songee; Nemoto, Miyuki; Figueroa, Rafael; Tanaka, Kiyoji

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this longitudinal study was to examine the association between habitual walking and multiple or injurious falls (falls) among community-dwelling older adults, by considering the relative risk of falling. A cohort of Japanese community-dwelling older adults (n=535) aged 60-91 years (73.1±6.6 year, 157 men and 378 women) who underwent community-based health check-ups from 2008 to 2012 were followed until 2013. Incidence rate of falls between walkers and non-walkers was compared separately by the number of risk factors (Groups R0, R1, R2, R3 and R4+). The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the association between habitual walking and falls separately by lower- (Rrisk groups. In Groups R0 and R1, the incidence of falls was lower in walkers than non-walkers; however, in Groups R2, R3, and R4+, the incidence of falls was higher in walkers. The Cox proportional hazard model showed that habitual walking was not significantly associated with falls (hazard ratio (HR): 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-1.62) among the lower risk group but that it was significantly associated with increased falls (HR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.04-3.43) among the higher risk group. The significant interaction between habitual walking and higher risk of falling was found (Prisk factors for falling, caution is needed when recommending walking because walking can actually increase their risk of experiencing multiple or injurious falls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in different age groups of Danish cattle and pigs - Occurrence and management associated risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maddox-Hyttel, Charlotte; Langkjær, Rikke Breinhold; Enemark, Heidi L.

    2006-01-01

    groups. Risk factors were evaluated by using proportional odds models with (oo)cyst excretion levels divided into four categories as response. Among the numerous risk factors examined, only a few were demonstrated to have a statistically significant influence, e.g. the use of an empty period in the calf....../calves 1-12 months. The faecal samples were purified and the number of (oo)cysts quantified. The study revealed an age-specific herd prevalence of Cryptosporidium of 16, 31 and 100% for sows, piglets and weaners, respectively, and of 14, 96 and 84% for cows, young calves and older calves, respectively...

  2. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.

    1996-02-01

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  3. Co-occurrence of metabolic factors and the risk of coronary heart disease: A prospective cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merry, A.H.; Erkens, P.M.G.; Boer, J.M.A.; Schouten, L.J.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Verschuren, W.M.M.; Gorgels, A.P.; Brandt, van den P.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background -Prevalence of metabolic factors such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, HDL and total cholesterol that are associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is increasing worldwide. However, less is known about combinations of these factors that are associated with the

  4. Use of risk medication for stomach ulcers and stomach protection relating to ulcer occurrence after bariatric surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sezgi, B.; Damhof, M. A.; Faneyte, L. F.; Van Der Palen, J.; Krens, L. L.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of risk medication and proton pump inhibitor use on ulcer-free survival in patients after bariatric surgery. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. METHODS By using a retrospective chart review, information was collected about the use of medication among 631 patients

  5. The Co-Occurrence of Autism and Birth Defects: Prevalence and Risk in a Population-Based Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schendel, Diana E.; Autry, Andrew; Wines, Roberta; Moore, Cynthia

    2009-01-01

    Aim: To estimate the prevalence of major birth defects among children with autism, the prevalence of autism in children with birth defects, and the risk for autism associated with having birth defects. Method: Retrospective cohort including all children born in Atlanta, GA, USA, 1986 to 1993, who survived to age 3 years and were identified through…

  6. Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeněk Konečný

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

  7. Spontaneous abortion: a prospective cohort study of younger women from the general population in Denmark. Validation, occurrence and risk determinants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buss, L; Tolstrup, J; Munk, C

    2006-01-01

    -based prospective cohort study comprising 11,088 women and data from a linkage of the cohort with the Hospital Discharge Register to compare spontaneous abortions as reported in the interview with those identified in the register. Based on interview data, we estimated the rate of spontaneous abortion during the two......-year follow-up. Finally, risk determinants for incident spontaneous abortion were analyzed by means of logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 654 spontaneous abortions before enrolment in the study were reported by the women compared to 531 abortions found in the register. More than 80% of the spontaneous...... abortions identified from both sources were recorded in the same year. During follow-up a total of 20.9% of pregnancies intended to be carried to term ended as a spontaneous abortion. In the risk factor analysis, we found that previous spontaneous abortion, being single, never having used oral...

  8. The occurrence and potential ecological risk assessment of bauxite mine-impacted water and sediments in Kuantan, Pahang,Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Rahman, Muhammad Syazwan Abd; Madzin, Zafira; Jusop, Shamshuddin; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Ariffin, Mariani; Z, Mohd Syakirin Md

    2017-01-01

    Recent bauxite mining activities in the vicinity of Kuantan, Pahang, have been associated with apparent environmental quality degradation and have raised environmental concerns among the public. This study was carried out to evaluate the overall ecological impacts on water and sediment quality from the bauxite mining activities. Water and sediment samples were collected at seven sampling locations within the bauxite mining areas between June and December 2015. The water samples were analyzed for water quality index (WQI) and distribution of major and trace element geochemistry. Sediment samples were evaluated based on geochemical indices, i.e., the enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ). Potential ecological risk index was estimated to assess the degree to which sediments of the mine-impacted areas have been contaminated with heavy metals. The results showed that WQIs of some locations were classified as slightly polluted and contained metal contents exceeding the recommended guideline values. The EFs indicated minimal to moderate enrichment of metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Mn, As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co, and Sr) in the sediments. I geo showed slightly to partially polluted sediments with respect to As at some locations. The potential ecological risk index (RI) showed that As posed the highest potential ecological risk with RI of 52.35-60.92 at two locations, while other locations indicated low risk. The findings from this study have demonstrated the impact of recent bauxite mining activities, which might be of importance to the local communities and relevant authorities to initiate immediate rehabilitation phase of the impacted area.

  9. Occurrence and risk assessment of phthalate esters (PAEs) in agricultural soils of the Sanjiang Plain, northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, He; Liang, Hong; Gao, Da-Wen

    2017-08-01

    This study looks at the pollution status of six priority control phthalate esters (PAEs) under different cultivation of agricultural soils in the Sanjiang Plain, northeast China. Results show the total concentration of PAEs ranged from 162.9 to 946.9 μg kg -1 with an average value of 369.5 μg kg -1 . PAE concentrations in three types of cultivated soils exhibited decreasing order paddy field (532.1 ± 198.1 μg kg -1 ) > vegetable field (308.2 ± 87.5 μg kg -1 ) > bean field (268.2 ± 48.3 μg kg -1 ). Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP) were the most abundant PAEs congeners. Compared with previous studies, agricultural soils in the Sanjiang Plain showed relatively low contamination levels. Anthropogenic activities such as cultivation practices and industrial emissions were associated with the distribution pattern of PAEs. Furthermore, human health risks of PAEs were estimated and the non-cancer risk shown negligible but carcinogenic risk of DEHP exceeded the threshold limits value. PAE contaminants originated from cultivation practices and intense anthropogenic activities result in placing the agricultural soils under a potential risk to human health and also to ecosystems in the Sanjiang Plain. Therefore, the contamination status of PAEs in agricultural soil and potential impacts on human health should attract considerable attention.

  10. Occurrence of commonly used pesticides in personal air samples and their associated health risk among paddy farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamsan, Hazwanee; Ho, Yu Bin; Zaidon, Siti Zulfa; Hashim, Zailina; Saari, Nazamid; Karami, Ali

    2017-12-15

    Tanjung Karang, Selangor, is widely known for its paddy cultivation activity and hosts the third largest paddy field in Malaysia. Pesticides contamination in agriculture fields has become an unavoidable problem, as pesticides are used to increase paddy productivity and reduce plant disease. Human exposure to agrichemicals is common and could results in both acute and chronic health effects, such as acute and chronic neurotoxicity. This study aims to determine the concentrations of commonly used pesticides (azoxystrobin, buprofezin, chlorantraniliprole, difenoconazole, fipronil, imidacloprid, isoprothiolane, pretilachlor, propiconazole, pymetrozine, tebuconazole, tricyclazole, and trifloxystrobin) in personal air samples and their associated health risks among paddy farmers. Eighty-three farmers from Tangjung Karang, Selangor were involved in this study. A solid sorbent tube was attached to the farmer's breathing zone with a clip, and an air pump was fastened to the belt to collect personal air samples. Pesticides collected in the XAD-2 resin were extracted with acetone, centrifuged, concentrated via nitrogen blowdown and reconstituted with 1mL of 3:1 ultrapure water/HPLC-grade methanol solution. The extract was analyzed using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). The target compounds were detected with a maximum concentration reaching up to 462.5ngm -3 (fipronil). The hazard quotient (HQ) was less than 1 and the hazard index (HI) value was 3.86×10 -3 , indicating that the risk of pesticides related diseases was not significant. The lifetime cancer risk (LCR) for pymetrozine was at an acceptable level (LCR<10 -6 ) with 4.10×10 -8 . The results reported in this study can be beneficial in terms of risk management within the agricultural community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

  12. Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikard, H.P.

    2004-01-01

    Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

  13. Occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products, and their associated environmental risks in a large shallow lake in north China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Panwei; Zhou, Huaidong; Li, Kun; Zhao, Xiaohui; Liu, Qiaona; Li, Dongjiao; Zhao, Gaofeng

    2018-01-13

    Eighteen selected pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), consisting of five non-antibiotic pharmaceuticals (N-APs), four sulfonamides (SAs), four tetracyclines (TCs), four macrolides (MCs), and one quinolone (QN) were detected in water, pore water, and sediment samples from Baiyangdian Lake, China. A total of 31 water samples and 29 sediment samples were collected in March 2017. Caffeine was detected with 100% frequency in surface water, pore water, and sediment samples. Carbamazepine was detected with 100% frequency in surface water and sediment samples. Five N-APs were prominent, with mean concentrations of 4.90-266.24 ng/l in surface water and 5.07-14.73 μg/kg in sediment samples. Four MCs were prominent, with mean concentrations of 0.97-29.92 ng/l in pore water samples. The total concentrations of the different classes of PPCPs followed the order: N-APs (53.26%) > MCs (25.39) > SAs (10.06%) > TCs (7.64%) > QNs (3.64%) in surface water; N-APs (42.70%) > MCs (25.43%) > TCs (14.69%) > SAs (13.90%) > QNs (3.24%) in sediment samples, and MCs (42.12%) > N-APs (34.80%) > SAs (11.71%) > TCs (7.48%) > QNs (3.88%) in pore water samples. The geographical differences of PPCP concentrations were largely due to anthropogenic activities. Sewage discharged from Baoding City and human activities around Baiyangdian Lake were the main sources of PPCPs in the lake. An environmental risk assessment for the upper quartile concentration was undertaken using calculated risk quotients and indicated a low or medium-high risk from 18 PPCPs in Baiyangdian Lake and its five upstream rivers.

  14. Occurrence and human health risk of wastewater-derived pharmaceuticals in a drinking water source for Shanghai, East China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhi-Hao; Chen, Ling; Meng, Xiang-Zhou; Duan, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Zeng-Sheng; Zeng, Eddy Y

    2014-08-15

    Pharmaceuticals are heavily used to improve human and animal health, resulting in the frequent contamination of aquatic environments with pharmaceutical residues, which has raised considerable concern in recent years. When inadequately removed from drinking water in water treatment plants, pharmaceuticals can have potential toxic effects on human health. This study investigated the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of five pharmaceuticals, including ibuprofen (IBP), ketoprofen (KEP), naproxen (NPX), diclofenac (DFC), and clofibric acid (CA), in the Huangpu River system (a drinking water source for Shanghai) over a period of almost two years as well as the associated risk to human health for different age groups. All of the targets were ubiquitous in the river water, with levels decreasing in the following order: KEP (mean: 28.6 ng/L)≈IBP (23.3 ng/L)>DFC (13.6 ng/L)≈NPX (12.3 ng/L)>CA (1.6ng/L). The concentrations of all of the investigated compounds were at the low or medium end of the global range. The upstream tributaries contained lower IBP but higher NPX than did the mainstream and downstream tributaries. However, no significant variations were found in the levels of KEP, DFC, or CA at the different sampling sites. Except for CA in the mainstream, significantly higher pharmaceutical levels were observed in the dry season than in the wet season. Overall, a very low risk of the selected pharmaceuticals for human health via drinking water was observed, but future studies are needed to examine the fate and chronic effects of all pharmaceuticals in aquatic environments. To our knowledge, this is the first report to investigate the human health risk of pharmaceuticals in raw drinking water in China. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls and heavy metals in surface sediments from a large eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chaohu)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Wei; Bai, Ze-Lin; Liu, Wen-Xiu

    2016-01-01

    Surface sediment from large and eutrophic Lake Chaohu was investigated to determine the occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and heavy metals in one of the five biggest freshwater lakes in China. Total concentration of PCBs (Σ34PCBs) in Lake...... and microbial degradation accounted for 34.2 % and 65.8 % of total PCBs using PMF, and PMF revealed that natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals accounted for 38.1 % and 61.8 %, respectively. CA indicated that some toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd, In, Tl, and Hg) were associated with Ca–Na–Mg minerals......, and Hg were at levels of environmental concern. The sediment in the drinking water source area (DWSA) was threatened by heavy metals from other areas, and some fundamental solutions were proposed to protect the DWSA....

  16. The co-occurrence of non-suicidal self-injury and attempted suicide among adolescents: distinguishing risk factors and psychosocial correlates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andover Margaret S

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Although attempted suicide and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI are distinct behaviors differing in intent, form, and function, the behaviors co-occur at a high rate in both adults and adolescents. Researchers have begun to investigate the association between attempted suicide and NSSI among adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to present current research on this association. First, we discuss definitional issues associated with self-injurious behaviors. Next, we present research on the co-occurrence of attempted suicide and NSSI, including prevalence and associations with self-injury characteristics. We then discuss psychosocial variables associated with engaging in both NSSI and attempted suicide or one type of self-injury alone. Finally, we present the research to date on risk factors uniquely associated with either attempted suicide or NSSI. Implications for mental health professionals and future avenues of research are discussed.

  17. Urinary incontinence in very young and mostly nulliparous women with a history of regular organised high-impact trampoline training: occurrence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kerstin; Edner, Ann; Mattsson, Eva

    2008-05-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the occurrence of urinary incontinence (UI) in mostly nulliparous women with a history of regular organised trampoline training as adolescents and to identify possible predictors. Female trampolinists in Sweden with licence for trampolining between 1995--1999 (n = 305), with a median age of 21 (range 18-44) years answered retrospectively a validated questionnaire. Competition with double somersaults had been performed by 85 women, the "competition group" (CG), while 220 women comprised the "recreational group" (RG). Of the trampolinists with UI during trampolining, 76% continued to leak. In CG, 57% and, in RG, 48% reported current UI. Strong predictors for UI were inability to interrupt micturition (p trampolining (p trampolining after menarche increased the risk of UI (p trampolining cannot be ruled out.

  18. Public health risk associated with the co-occurrence of mycotoxins in spices consumed in Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yogendrarajah, Pratheeba; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; Walpita, Chaminda Niroshan; Kolsteren, Patrick; De Saeger, Sarah; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2014-12-01

    A quantitative risk assessment of mycotoxins due to the consumption of chilli (Capsicum annum L.) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) was performed in Sri Lanka. A food frequency questionnaire was administered in order to collect the data on consumption of spices by households in the Northern and Southern region (n = 249). The mean chilli consumption in the North was significantly higher (p spices were estimated. Margin of exposure estimations at the mean exposure to AFB1 were remarkably lower due to chilli (45-78) than for pepper (2315–10,857). Moreover, the hepato cellular carcinoma (HCC) risk associated with the mean AFB1 exposure through chilli at the lower bound was 0.046 and 0.028 HCC cases/year/100,000 based on the North and South consumption, respectively. AFB1 exposure via chilli should be considered as a great public health concern in Sri Lanka due to both high mycotoxin concentration and high consumption.

  19. The occurrence and distribution of antibiotics in Lake Chaohu, China: seasonal variation, potential source and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jun; Shi, Taozhong; Wu, Xiangwei; Cao, Haiqun; Li, Xuede; Hua, Rimao; Tang, Feng; Yue, Yongde

    2015-03-01

    The distribution and seasonal variation of fifteen antibiotics belonging to three classes (sulfonamides, fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines) were investigated in Lake Chaohu, China. The concentrations of the selected antibiotics in the surface water, eight major inflowing rivers and sewage treatment plant (STP) samples were analyzed by UPLC-MS/MS. The results indicated that sulfamethoxazole and ofloxacin were the predominant antibiotics, with maximum concentrations of 95.6 and 383.4ngL(-1), respectively, in the river samples. In Lake Chaohu, the western inflowing rivers (the Nanfei and Shiwuli Rivers) were the primary import routes for the antibiotics, and the domestic effluent from four STPs were considered the primary source of the antibiotics. The level of antibiotics in Lake Chaohu clearly varied with seasonal changes, and the highest detectable frequencies and mean concentrations were found during the winter. The quality of water downstream of Lake Chaohu was influenced by the lake, and the results of risk assessment of the antibiotics on aquatic organisms suggested that sulfamethoxazole, ofloxacin, ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin in the surface water of Lake Chaohu and inflowing rivers might pose a high risk to algae and plants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Bisphenol analogues in surface water and sediment from the shallow Chinese freshwater lakes: Occurrence, distribution, source apportionment, and ecological and human health risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhengyu; Liu, Yanhua; Yan, Kun; Wu, Shengmin; Han, Zhihua; Guo, Ruixin; Chen, Meihong; Yang, Qiulian; Zhang, Shenghu; Chen, Jianqiu

    2017-10-01

    Compared to Bisphenol A (BPA), current knowledge on the spatial distribution, potential sources and environmental risk assessment of other bisphenol analogues (BPs) remains limited. The occurrence, distribution and sources of seven BPs were investigated in the surface water and sediment from Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, which are the Chinese shallow freshwater lakes. Because there are many industries and living areas around Taihu Lake, the total concentrations of ∑BPs were much higher than that in Luoma Lake, which is away from the industry-intensive areas. For the two lakes, BPA was still the dominant BPs in both surface water and sediment, followed by BPF and BPS. The spatial distribution and principal component analysis showed that BPs in Luoma Lake was relatively homogeneous and the potential sources were relatively simple than that in Taihu Lake. The spatial distribution of BPs in sediment of Taihu Lake indicated that ∑BPs positively correlated with the TOC content. For both Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, the risk assessment at the sampling sites showed that no high risk in surface water and sediment (RQ t  < 1.0, and EEQ t  < 1.0 ng E 2 /L). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. AURKA Phe31Ile polymorphism interacted with use of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarettes at multiplicative risk of oral cancer occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chi-Pin; Chiang, Shang-Lun; Lee, Chien-Hung; Tsai, Yi-Shan; Wang, Zhi-Hong; Hua, Chun-Hung; Chen, Yuan-Chien; Tsai, Eing-Mei; Ko, Ying-Chin

    2015-11-01

    The expression levels of two DNA repair genes (CHAF1A and CHAF1B) and a chromosome segregation gene (AURKA) were susceptible to arecoline exposure, a major alkaloid of areca nut. We hypothesize that genetic variants of these genes might also be implicated in the risk of oral cancer and could be modified by substance use of betel quid or alcohol and cigarettes. A case-control study, which included 507 patients with oral cancer and 717 matched controls, was performed in order to evaluate the cancer susceptibility by the tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) in AURKA, CHAF1A, and CHAF1B using a genotyping assay and gene-environment interaction analysis. The Phe31Ile polymorphism (rs2273535, T91A) of AURKA was significantly associated with an increased risk of oral cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.5). The gene dosage of the 91A allele also showed a significant trend in risk of oral cancer (P = 0.008). Furthermore, we found the AURKA 91AA homozygote was modifiable by substance use of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarettes (ABC), leading to increased risk of oral cancer in an additive or a multiplicative model (combined effect indexes = 1.2-4.0 and 1.5-2.2, respectively). However, no association was observed between the genetic variants of CHAF1A or CHAF1B and oral cancer risk in the study. These findings reveal the functional Phe31Ile polymorphism tagSNP of AURKA may be a strong susceptibility gene in ABC-related oral cancer occurrence. The results of this betel-related oral cancer study provide the evidence of environment-gene interaction for early prediction and molecular diagnosis.

  2. Co-occurrence of arsenic and fluoride in the groundwater of Punjab, Pakistan: source discrimination and health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasool, Atta; Xiao, Tangfu; Baig, Zenab Tariq; Masood, Sajid; Mostofa, Khan M G; Iqbal, Muhammad

    2015-12-01

    The present study discusses elevated groundwater arsenic (As) and fluoride (F(-)) concentrations in Mailsi, Punjab, Pakistan, and links these elevated concentrations to health risks for the local residents. The results indicate that groundwater samples of two areas of Mailsi, Punjab were severely contaminated with As (5.9-507 ppb) and F(-) (5.5-29.6 ppm), as these values exceeded the permissible limits of World Health Organization (10 ppb for As and 1.5 ppm for F(-)). The groundwater samples were categorized by redox state. The major process controlling the As levels in groundwater was the adsorption of As onto PO4 (3-) at high pH. High alkalinity and low Ca(2+) and Mg(2+) concentrations promoted the higher F(-) and As concentrations in the groundwater. A positive correlation was observed between F(-) and As concentrations (r = 0.37; n = 52) and other major ions found in the groundwater of the studied area. The mineral saturation indices calculated by PHREEQC 2.1 suggested that a majority of samples were oversaturated with calcite and fluorite, leading to the dissolution of fluoride minerals at alkaline pH. Local inhabitants exhibited arsenicosis and fluorosis after exposure to environmental concentration doses of As and F(-). Estimated daily intake (EDI) and target hazard quotient (THQ) highlighted the risk factors borne by local residents. Multivariate statistical analysis further revealed that both geologic origins and anthropogenic activities contributed to As and F(-) contamination in the groundwater. We propose that pollutants originate, in part, from coal combusted at brick factories, and agricultural activities. Once generated, these pollutants were mobilized by the alkaline nature of the groundwater.

  3. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  4. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  5. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  6. Analysis, occurrence, fate and risks of proton pump inhibitors, their metabolites and transformation products in aquatic environment: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosma, Christina I; Lambropoulou, Dimitra A; Albanis, Triantafyllos A

    2016-11-01

    Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) which include omeprazole, esomeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole and rabeprazole, are extensively used for the relief of gastro-intestinal disorders. Despite their high worldwide consumption, PPIs are extensively metabolized in human bodies and therefore are not regularly detected in monitoring studies. Very recently, however, it has been shown that some omeprazole metabolites may enter and are likely to persist in aquatic environment. Hence, to fully assess the environmental exposures and risks associated with PPIs, it is important to better understand and evaluate the fate and behavior not only of the parent compound but also of their metabolites and their transformation products arising from biotic and abiotic processes (hydrolysis, photodegradation, biodegradation etc.) in the environment. In this light, the purpose of this review is to summarize the present state of knowledge on the introduction and behavior of these chemicals in natural and engineering systems and highlight research needs and gaps. It draws attention to their transformation, the increase contamination by their metabolites/TPs in different environmental matrices and their potential adverse effects in the environment. Furthermore, existing research on analytical developments with respect to sample treatment, separation and detection of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs is provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Occurrence, sources and transport of antibiotics in the surface water of coral reef regions in the South China Sea: Potential risk to coral growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ruijie; Zhang, Ruiling; Yu, Kefu; Wang, Yinghui; Huang, Xueyong; Pei, Jiying; Wei, Chaoshuai; Pan, Ziliang; Qin, Zhenjun; Zhang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Laboratory research has indicated that antibiotics had negative effects on coral growth by disturbing natural microbiota; however, no field studies have reported antibiotic contamination levels and their influence on coral growth in natural coral reef regions (CRRs). This study investigated antibiotic occurrence and sources in the surface water from CRRs that have suffered from rapid coral degradation and evaluated their risk to coral growth. These regions are in the South China Sea, including four coastal and two offshore CRRs. The results show that 13 antibiotics were detected in the coastal CRRs with concentrations ranging from 10 −2 –10 0  ng L −1 , while 5 antibiotics occurred in offshore CRRs (300–950 km from the mainland), with concentrations ranging from 10 −2 to 10 −1  ng L −1 . Their concentrations decreased gradually from the coast to offshore in the transport process. However, Yongxing Island, which is approximately 300 km from the mainland, was an exception with relatively higher concentrations than the surrounding reefs because of the ever-increasing human activity on the island. The presence of anthropogenic contaminants antibiotics in CRRs may be a potential risk to coral growth. - Highlights: • The study first studied antibiotic contamination in seawater from coral reef regions. • Thirteen antibiotics were detected at the level of 10 −2 - 10 0  ng L −1 . • The antibiotic concentrations decreased gradually from the coast to offshore. • Higher concentrations were detected in one offshore reef with more human activities. • Potential risk of the antibiotics to the coral could be ruled out. - Antibiotic contamination level, sources and their potential risk to coral growth were first studied in the surface water of natural coral reef regions.

  8. Occurrence and risk assessment of antibiotics in surface water and groundwater from different depths of aquifers: A case study at Jianghan Plain, central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Linlin; Wang, Yanxin; Tong, Lei; Deng, Yamin; Li, Yonggang; Gan, Yiqun; Guo, Wei; Dong, Chuangju; Duan, Yanhua; Zhao, Ke

    2017-01-01

    The occurrence of 14 antibiotics (fluoroquinolones, tetracyclines, macrolides and sulfonamides) in groundwater and surface water at Jianghan Plain was investigated during three seasons. The total concentrations of target compounds in the water samples were higher in spring than those in summer and winter. Erythromycin was the predominant antibiotic in surface water samples with an average value of 1.60μg/L, 0.772μg/L and 0.546μg/L respectively in spring, summer and winter. In groundwater samples, fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines accounted for the dominant proportion of total antibiotic residues. The vertical distributions of total antibiotics in groundwater samples from three different depths boreholes (10m, 25m, and 50m) exhibited irregular fluctuations. Consistently decreasing of antibiotic residues with increasing of depth was observed in four (G01, G02, G03 and G05) groundwater sampling sites over three seasons. However, at the sampling sites G07 and G08, the pronounced high concentrations of total antibiotic residues were detected in water samples from 50m deep boreholes instead of those at upper aquifer in winter sampling campaign, with the total concentrations of 0.201μg/L and 0.100μg/L respectively. The environmental risks posed by the 14 antibiotics were assessed by using the methods of risk quotient and mixture risk quotient for algae, daphnids and fish in surface water and groundwater. The results suggested that algae might be the aquatic organism most sensitive to the antibiotics, with the highest risk levels posed by erythromycin in surface water and by ciprofloxacin in groundwater among the 14 antibiotics. In addition, the comparison between detected antibiotics in groundwater samples and the reported effective concentrations of antibiotics on denitrification by denitrifying bacteria, indicating this biogeochemical process driven by microorganisms won't be inhibitory influenced by the antibiotic residues in groundwater. Copyright © 2016

  9. Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

    1985-01-01

    There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

  10. UV-filters and musk fragrances in seafood commercialized in Europe Union: Occurrence, risk and exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, S C; Trabalón, L; Jacobs, S; Castro, M; Fernandez-Tejedor, M; Granby, K; Verbeke, W; Kwadijk, C; Ferrari, F; Robbens, J; Sioen, I; Pocurull, E; Marques, A; Fernandes, J O; Domingo, J L

    2018-02-01

    In the framework of the FP7 ECsafeSeafood project, 62 seafood samples commercialized in Europe Union from several representative species - mackerel, tuna, salmon, seabream, cod, monkfish, crab, shrimp, octopus, perch and plaice - were analysed for residues of 21 personal care products (PCPs), including 11 UV-filters (UV-Fs) and 10 musk fragrances (musks). PCPs analysis were performed by Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective Rugged, Safe (QuEChERS), combined with liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) or dispersive solid-phase extraction (dSPE), followed by gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). The results showed the presence in a wide range of samples of nine out of eleven UV-Fs compounds analysed, namely 2-ethylhexyl salicylate (EHS), 2-ethylhexyl,4-methoxycinnamate (EHMC), 4-methylbenzylidenecamphor (4-MBC), benzophenone-1 (BP1), benzophenone-3 (BP3), isoamyl-4-methoxycinnamate (IMC), 2,2'-dihydroxy-4,4'-dimethoxybenzophenone (DHMB), homosalate (HS), and octocrylene (OC), whereas galaxolide (HHCB), galaxolide lactone (HHCB-lactone), and tonalide (AHTN) were the most found musks. The potential risks to human health associated with the exposure to eight of the more prevalent PCPs - EHS, EHMC, 4-MBC, BP1, BP3, IMC, HHCB, and AHTN - through seafood consumption were assessed for consumers from five European countries (Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Results showed that the human exposure to UV-Fs and musks estimated from the concentration values found in seafood and the daily consumption of concerned seafood species, were far below toxicological reference values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Occurrence, sources and transport of antibiotics in the surface water of coral reef regions in the South China Sea: Potential risk to coral growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruijie; Zhang, Ruiling; Yu, Kefu; Wang, Yinghui; Huang, Xueyong; Pei, Jiying; Wei, Chaoshuai; Pan, Ziliang; Qin, Zhenjun; Zhang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Laboratory research has indicated that antibiotics had negative effects on coral growth by disturbing natural microbiota; however, no field studies have reported antibiotic contamination levels and their influence on coral growth in natural coral reef regions (CRRs). This study investigated antibiotic occurrence and sources in the surface water from CRRs that have suffered from rapid coral degradation and evaluated their risk to coral growth. These regions are in the South China Sea, including four coastal and two offshore CRRs. The results show that 13 antibiotics were detected in the coastal CRRs with concentrations ranging from 10 -2 -10 0  ng L -1 , while 5 antibiotics occurred in offshore CRRs (300-950 km from the mainland), with concentrations ranging from 10 -2 to 10 -1  ng L -1 . Their concentrations decreased gradually from the coast to offshore in the transport process. However, Yongxing Island, which is approximately 300 km from the mainland, was an exception with relatively higher concentrations than the surrounding reefs because of the ever-increasing human activity on the island. The presence of anthropogenic contaminants antibiotics in CRRs may be a potential risk to coral growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Application of passive sampling in assessing the occurrence and risk of antibiotics and endocrine disrupting chemicals in the Yangtze Estuary, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X; Zhou, J L; Zhao, H; Hou, L; Yang, Y

    2014-09-01

    Polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) was used in assessing the occurrence and risk of 12 widely used antibiotics and 5 most potent endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the Yangtze Estuary, China. During laboratory validation, the kinetics of pollutant uptake by POCIS were linear, and the sampling rates of most compounds were raised by flow rate and salinity, reaching the highest values at salinity 14‰. The sampling rates varied with the target compounds with the EDCs showing the highest values (overall average=0.123Ld(-1)), followed by chloramphenicols (0.100Ld(-1)), macrolides (0.089Ld(-1)), and finally sulfonamides (0.056Ld(-1)). Validation in the Yangtze Estuary in 2013 showed that the field sampling rates were significantly greater for all compounds except bisphenol A, in comparison to laboratory results, and high-frequency spot sampling is critical for fully validating the passive sampler. The field studies show that antibiotics were widely detected in the Yangtze Estuary, with concentrations varying from below quantification to 1613ngL(-1), suggesting their widespread use and persistence in estuarine waters. The dominating pollutants in July were sulfonamides with a total concentration of 258ngL(-1) and in October were macrolides with a total concentration of 350ngL(-1). The calculation of risk quotient suggested that sulfapyridine, sulfaquinoxaline and erythromycin-H2O may have caused medium damage to sensitive organisms such as fish. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. A-FABP Concentration Is More Strongly Associated with Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and the Occurrence of Metabolic Syndrome in Premenopausal Than in Postmenopausal Middle-Aged Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Stefanska

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed at the evaluation of the relationship between adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (A-FABP and cardiometabolic risk factors in premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Additionally, we compared A-FABP with adipokines related to metabolic syndrome (MetS such as leptin and adiponectin. 94 premenopausal and 90 early postmenopausal middle-aged Caucasian women were subject to examinations. Postmenopausal women had higher A-FABP than premenopausal; this difference became insignificant after controlling for age. We found significantly higher correlation coefficients between A-FABP and TC/HDL-C ratio and number of MetS components in premenopausal women, compared to postmenopausal. Each 1 ng/dL increase in A-FABP concentration significantly increased the probability of occurrence of atherogenic lipid profile in premenopausal women, even after multivariate adjustment. All odds ratios became insignificant after controlling for BMI in postmenopausal women. A-FABP was more strongly associated with MetS than leptin and adiponectin in premenopausal women. Adiponectin concentration was a better biomarker for MetS after menopause. Our results suggest that the A-FABP is more strongly associated with some cardiometabolic risk factors in premenopausal than in postmenopausal women. Higher values of A-FABP after menopause are mainly explained by the fact that postmenopausal women are older. Because of the limitation of study, these results should be interpreted with caution.

  14. A Survey of occurrence of toxogenic fungi and mycotoxins in pig feed samples-Use in evaluation of risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Milicevic

    Full Text Available In order to assess of risk assessment, the aim of this paper was to provide good and detailed insight into the level of contamination of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine from mycotoxin-producing fungi and mycotoxins (n=18. Isolation and quantitative enumeration of fungal propagules were done on solid media using the standard microbiological procedure. These plates were incubated the number of colonies was determined and thent on the basis of characteristic colonies and microscopic analysis was performed to identify genera and species of moulds. Isolates identified as Aspergillus and Penicillium species were subjected to molecular characterization of the presence of genes responsible for the synthesis of OTA (polyketide synthase gene-PKS. Total fungal counts (CFU/g ranged from 0,5x105 do 4x106. From a total samples analysed, seven samples had fungal counts higher than the limit established by Serbian regulations (3x105. During a mycological analysis of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine, a total of six genera and 14 species of moulds were identified of which the most frequent one was of the genus Penicillium (94,4% while the moulds from Fusarium genere isolated in 55,5% and Paecilomyces in 44,4% of the samples from investigated localities. Other fungi from the genera Aspergillus (22%, Mycor (11,1% and Alternaria (5,5% were represented in a less amount. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR is a set of 18 isolates of the DNA belonging to families Penicillium and Aspergillus. The sequences of PCR reaction products in three samples were compared with nucleotide sequences of genes for poliketid synthase (PKS from Penicillium species and found that the samples possess PKS sequence. The traditional methods for identification of ochratoxin-producing fungi are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Rapid and specific detection of ochratoxinproducing fungi is important for ensuring microbiological quality and safety of feed and food

  15. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  16. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  17. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

    2015-09-15

    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

    1997-01-01

    A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

  19. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeighami, E.A.; Walsh, P.J.; Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/10 6 /rad-year to 6/10 6 /rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  20. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    OpenAIRE

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Pu...

  1. University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

    2018-04-01

    Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

  2. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  3. Knowledge of Risk Factors and Preventive Measures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study was to elicit the knowledge of risk factors and preventive measures of hypertension among Child Bearing Mothers (CBMs) in Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. The study adopted the descriptive research design. Specifically, three objectives with three corresponding research ...

  4. Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

  5. Prevalence and potential risk factors for the occurrence of cefotaxime resistant Escherichia coli in German fattening pig farms--a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hering, Johanna; Hille, Katja; Frömke, Cornelia; von Münchhausen, Christiane; Hartmann, Maria; Schneider, Bettina; Friese, Anika; Roesler, Uwe; Merle, Roswitha; Kreienbrock, Lothar

    2014-09-01

    A cross-sectional study concerning farm prevalence and risk factors for the count of cefotaxime resistant Escherichia coli (E. coli) (CREC) positive samples per sampling group on German fattening pig farms was performed in 2011 and 2012. Altogether 48 farms in four agricultural regions in the whole of Germany were investigated. Faecal samples, boot swabs and dust samples from two sampling groups per farm were taken and supplemental data were collected using a questionnaire. On 85% of the farms, at least one sample contained cefotaxime resistant E. coli colonies. Positive samples were more frequent in faeces (61%) and boot swabs (54%) than in dust samples (11%). Relevant variables from the questionnaire were analysed in a univariable mixed effect Poisson regression model. Variables that were related to the number (risk) of positive samples per sampling group with a p-value risk for positive samples involved farm management and hygienic aspects. Farms that had a separate pen for diseased pigs had a 2.8 higher mean count of positive samples (95%-CI [1.71; 4.58], p=0.001) than farms without an extra pen. The mean count was increased on farms with under-floor exhaust ventilation compared to farms with over floor ventilation (2.22 [1.43; 3.46], p=0.001) and more positive samples were observed on farms that controlled flies with toxin compared to farms that did not (1.86 [1.24; 2.78], p=0.003). It can be concluded, that CREC are wide spread on German fattening pig farms. In addition the explorative approach of the present study suggests an influence of management strategies on the occurrence of cefotaxime resistant E. coli. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  7. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-01-01

    Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational

  8. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elovainio Marko

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high

  9. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-02-07

    In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model--effort, rewards and ERI--are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational-level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index > or =25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously > or =3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational efforts relative to rewards may be

  10. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Ayako; Fujimoto, Junzo; Takeda, Daisuke; Yamazaki, Tomoyuki

    2009-01-01

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  11. Investigating the Effect of Inflammation on Atrial Fibrillation Occurrence by Measuring Highly Sensitive C-reactive Protein (hs-CRP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Hassanzadeh Delui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmias that cardiologists and internists encounter. The goal of this article is to clarify an overview of the evidence linking inflammation to AF existence, which may highlight the effect of some pharmacological agents that have genuine potential to reduce the clinical burden of AF by modulating inflammatory pathways. Materials and Methods: In a case-control study, 50 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF with different etiologies and 50 patients with sinus rhythm and similar bases were selected. Sampling for highly sensitive c-reactive (hs-CRP was done on the patients presenting with AF to the Ghaem hospital between October 2006 and June 2007. Results: Mean age of the patients was 62 years with maximum of 90 and minimum of 36 and standard deviation of 13.80. The most frequent age group was 71-80years. Fifty-four percent of patients were male and 46% were female. Mean serum hs-CRP levels in AF patients with hypertension (HTN ,Ischemic heart disease(IHD, Valvular heart disease (VHD, HTN+IHD and hyperthyroidism were 8.10, 9.40, 8.68, 10.16 and 5.98 mg/Lit; respectively. There was significant difference between hs-CRP levels in hypertensive patients in the two groups (P=0.010. Similar results were observed in IHD patients, VHD patients and HTN+IHD patients in two groups (P=0.015, P=0.037, P=0.000. Conclusion: In addition to some risk factors like baseline cardiac diseases, aging, thyrotoxicosis, pulmonary embolism, pneumonia and cardiac surgery, there also appears to be consistent links between hs-CRP, a marker of inflammation, and the pathogenesis of AF. Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmias that cardiologists and internists encounter. The goal of this article is to clarify an overview of the evidence linking inflammation to AF existence, which may highlight the effect of some pharmacological agents that have genuine potential to

  12. Investigating the Effect of Inflammation on Atrial Fibrillation Occurrence by Measuring Highly Sensitive C-reactive Protein (hs-CRP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Hassanzadeh Delui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmias that cardiologists and internists encounter. The goal of this article is to clarify an overview of the evidence linking inflammation to AF existence, which may highlight the effect of some pharmacological agents that have genuine potential to reduce the clinical burden of AF by modulating inflammatory pathways. Materials and Methods: In a case-control study, 50 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF with different etiologies and 50 patients with sinus rhythm and similar bases were selected. Sampling for highly sensitive c-reactive (hs-CRP was done on the patients presenting with AF to the Ghaem hospital between October 2006 and June 2007. Results: Mean age of the patients was 62 years with maximum of 90 and minimum of 36 and standard deviation of 13.80. The most frequent age group was 71-80years. Fifty-four percent of patients were male and 46% were female. Mean serum hs-CRP levels in AF patients with hypertension (HTN ,Ischemic heart disease(IHD, Valvular heart disease (VHD, HTN+IHD and hyperthyroidism were 8.10, 9.40, 8.68, 10.16 and 5.98 mg/Lit; respectively. There was significant difference between hs-CRP levels in hypertensive patients in the two groups (P=0.010. Similar results were observed in IHD patients, VHD patients and HTN+IHD patients in two groups (P=0.015, P=0.037, P=0.000. Conclusion: In addition to some risk factors like baseline cardiac diseases, aging, thyrotoxicosis, pulmonary embolism, pneumonia and cardiac surgery, there also appears to be consistent links between hs-CRP, a marker of inflammation, and the pathogenesis of AF.

  13. Improving Supply Chain Risk Management by Introducing Performance Measurement Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ryding, Anna; Sahlin, Jonatan

    2013-01-01

    Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a topic that gains more and more interest from both the academic and practitioner’s perspective. The reason for this is the increased complexity in the global supply chain (SC) networks and many managers do not realize the risks they build in their SC by the continuous search to cut cost and decrease tied up capital. One problem with SCRM is that it is hard to measure the performance of it and if it is really beneficial to work with it. The objective for...

  14. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

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    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  15. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  16. Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderita Sena

    Full Text Available Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

  17. The incidences of oxidative –stress occurrence following two metabolic support measures in critically ill patients

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    Mojtaba Mojtahedzadeh

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: A high percentage of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU have systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS criteria. Free radicals play an important role in initiation and development of SIRS. The purpose of this study was to assess and compare the molecular changes of cellular antioxidant power in patients with SIRS who received enteral nutrition (EN or EN combined with parenteral nutrition (PN. Methods: Two groups of 10 patients were enrolled in this randomized, controlled clinical trial. Those in the treatment group received EN+PN and the control group received only EN. Venous blood samples were taken just prior to initiation of nutritional support and then 24, 48 and 72 hours following entry into the study for examination of antioxidant parameters including total thiol, total antioxidant capacity and lipid peroxidation. Results: The two supportive regimens had different affects on total antioxidant capacity (P=0.005. In the EN group the amount of total antioxidant capacity was not significantly different in different days (P>0.05, but in the EN+PN group it was significantly different on third and forth days as compared to the first day. The two other parameters had no significant differences between the two groups. Conclusion: These results are suggesting that an increase in oxidative stress bio-markers are not necessarily related to the route of pharmaconutrition and may occur independently during metabolic support measures. Keywords: Parenteral Nutrition, Enteral Nitrition, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Oxidative stress

  18. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  19. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  20. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

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    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  1. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  2. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  4. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  5. A comparison of the risk measures between VHTR and LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok-Jung; Yang, Joon-Eon; Lee, Won-Jea

    2007-01-01

    Because the safety characteristics of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) are different to that of light water reactors (LWRs), it is necessary to develop an adequate probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology in order to perform a risk assessment. The inherent safety features of the VHTR are (1) simplified safety functions (2) the absence of the large release of radioactive materials such as a severe accident in LWRs. The PSA methodology for LWRs cannot be directly applied in a VHTR PSA. This paper proposes a PSA methodology for a VHTR. The essential point of the proposed methodology is to define end states of accident sequences in order to establish the risk measures for a VHTR PSA. This paper compares them with that for LWRs to discuss the differences of them

  6. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  7. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  8. Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

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    Joseph Kagaayi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index. Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models. RESULTS: We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years, and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years. The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73. The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70. Both models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

  9. Mapping occurrence of Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis and areas at risk of porcine cysticercosis in Central America and the Caribbean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Sithole, Fortune; Wang, Ziqi; Willingham, Arve Lee

    2017-09-18

    This study aimed to map the occurrence of Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis at national level within Central America and the Caribbean basin, and to map the distribution of porcine cysticercosis at first-level administrative subdivision level (department level) and the porcine population at risk. This zoonotic parasite is believed to be widely endemic across most of Latin America. However, there is little information readily available for Central America and the Caribbean basin. Taenia solium has been ranked the most important foodborne parasitic hazard globally and within endemic areas is a common cause of preventable epilepsy. We conducted a structured literature search in PubMed, supplemented and crossed-referenced with relevant academic databases, grey literature, and active searches in identified literature, to identify all records of T. solium presence in Central America and the Caribbean basin between 1986 and April 2017. To retrieve grey literature, government entities, researchers and relevant institutions across the region were contacted in an attempt to cover all countries and territories. Identified records containing data on porcine cysticercosis were geo-referenced to identify department level distribution and compared to modelled distributions of pigs reared under extensive production systems. We identified 51 records of T. solium at the national level, covering 13 countries and an additional three countries were included based on World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) reports, giving a total of 16 countries out of 41 with evidence of the parasite's presence. Screening records for porcine cysticercosis data at the departmental level confirmed porcine cysticercosis presence in 11 departments across six countries (Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela). When comparing these results to areas where pigs were kept in extensive production systems and areas where no information on porcine cysticercosis exists, it is apparent

  10. [Attributable risk of co-morbid substance use disorder in poor observance to pharmacological treatment and the occurrence of relapse in schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameller, A; Gorwood, P

    2015-04-01

    There are numerous risk factors involved in poor (incomplete) compliance to pharmacological treatment, and the associated relapse risk, for patients with schizophrenia. Comorbid substance use disorders are considered as among the most important ones, although how much their presence increase the risk of poorer observance (and higher risk of relapse) has not been yet assessed. This measure would be important, especially if the published literature on the topic provides sufficient material to perform a meta-analysis and to assess different potential biases such as those related to time (new studies are easier to publish when positive) or sample size (small samples might drive the global positive conclusion). A PubMed(®) search was made, screening the following terms between 1996 and august 2014 "Addiction AND (Observance OR Adherence) AND schizophrenia AND (French OR English [Language])" and "(Substance Abuse OR substance dependance) AND Outcome AND schizophrenia AND (French OR English [Language])". Studies were included if they describe two patients groups (schizophrenia with and without present substance use disorder) and assess the studied outcome. MetaWin(®) version 2 was used for the meta-analysis, while publication time bias relied on non-parametric correlation and the one linked to sample size was assessed through normal quantile plots. An attributable risk was also computered, on the basis of the odds-ratio derived from the meta-analysis and the prevalence of the analyzed trait (associated substance use disorder). Eight studies could be included in the meta-analysis, showing that the presence of a substance use disorder significantly increases the risk of poor observance to pharmacological treatment (OR=2.18 [1.84-2.58]), no significant bias being detected, either linked to time (rho=0.287, P=0.490) or sample size (Kendall's Tau=-0.286, P=0.322). The related attributable risk is 18.50%. Only three studies could be used for the meta-analysis of the risk of

  11. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  12. Occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls and heavy metals in surface sediments from a large eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chaohu).

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wei; Bai, Ze-Lin; Liu, Wen-Xiu; Kong, Xiang-Zhen; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Jørgensen, Sven Erik; Xu, Fu-Liu

    2016-06-01

    Surface sediment from large and eutrophic Lake Chaohu was investigated to determine the occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and heavy metals in one of the five biggest freshwater lakes in China. Total concentration of PCBs (Σ34PCBs) in Lake Chaohu was 672 pg g(-1) dry weight (dw), with a range of 7 to 3999 pg g(-1) dw, which was lower than other water bodies worldwide. The majority of heavy metals were detected at all sampling locations, except for Sr, B, and In. Concentrations of Al, Fe, Ca, Mn, Sr, Co, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Hg were similar to that reported for other lakes globally. Concentrations of K, Mg, Na, Li, Ga, and Ag were greater than the average, whereas those of Cr, Ni, and Cu were lower. Cluster analysis (CA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) yielded accordant results for the source apportionment of PCBs. The technical PCBs and microbial degradation accounted for 34.2 % and 65.8 % of total PCBs using PMF, and PMF revealed that natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals accounted for 38.1 % and 61.8 %, respectively. CA indicated that some toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd, In, Tl, and Hg) were associated with Ca-Na-Mg minerals rather than Fe-Mn minerals. The uncorrelated results between organic matter revealed by pyrolysis technology and heavy metals might be caused by the existence of competitive adsorption between organic matter and minerals. PCBs and heavy metals were coupling discharge without organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), but with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). No sediment sample exceeded the toxic threshold for dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) set at 20 pg toxicity equivalency quantity (TEQ) g(-1), (max dl-PCBs, 10.9 pg TEQ g(-1)). However, concentrations of Ag, Cd, and Hg were at levels of environmental concern. The sediment in the drinking water source area (DWSA) was threatened by heavy metals from other areas, and some

  13. Eligibility for interventions, co-occurrence and risk factors for unhealthy behaviours in patients consulting for routine primary care: results from the Pre-Empt study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randell, Elizabeth; Pickles, Timothy; Simpson, Sharon A; Spanou, Clio; McCambridge, Jim; Hood, Kerenza; Butler, Christopher C

    2015-10-09

    Smoking, excessive drinking, lack of exercise and a poor diet remain key causes of premature morbidity and mortality globally, yet it is not clear what proportion of patients attending for routine primary care are eligible for interventions about these behaviours, the extent to which they co-occur within individuals, and which individuals are at greatest risk for multiple unhealthy behaviours. The aim of the trial was to examine 'intervention eligibility' and co-occurrence of the 'big four' risky health behaviours - lack of exercise, smoking, an unhealthy diet and excessive drinking - in a primary care population. Data were collected from adult patients consulting routinely in general practice across South Wales as part of the Pre-Empt study; a cluster randomised controlled trial. After giving consent, participants completed screening instruments, which included the following to assess eligibility for an intervention based on set thresholds: AUDIT-C (for alcohol), HSI (for smoking), IPAQ (for exercise) and a subset of DINE (for diet). The intervention following screening was based on which combination of risky behaviours the patient had. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests for association and ordinal regressions were undertaken. Two thousand sixty seven patients were screened: mean age of 48.6 years, 61.9 % female and 42.8 % in a managerial or professional occupation. In terms of numbers of risky behaviours screened eligible for, two was the most common (43.6 %), with diet and exercise (27.2 %) being the most common combination. Insufficient exercise was the most common single risky behaviour (12.0 %). 21.8 % of patients would have been eligible for an intervention for three behaviours and 5.9 % for all four behaviours. Just 4.5 % of patients did not identify any risky behaviours. Women, older age groups and those in managerial or professional occupations were more likely to exhibit all four risky behaviours. Very few patients consulting for routine primary care

  14. A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcez, Thalles Vitelli; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM’s attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory. - Highlights: • The paper proposes a risk measure of underground vaults for manhole events. • It makes risk analysis in underground electrical distribution networks. • It makes more than show a risk ranking of underground vaults. • It can show to the DM how

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk of Banking in Indonesia: Conditional Value at Risk Model Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjum Muharam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Systemic risk is a risk of collapse of the financial system that would cause the financial system is not functioning properly. Measurement of systemic risk in the financial institutions, especially banks are crucial, because banks are highly vulnerable to financial crisis. In this study, to estimate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR used quantile regression. Samples in this study of 9 banks have total assets of the largest in Indonesia. Testing the correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR in this study using Spearman correlation and Kendall's Tau. There are five banks that have a significant correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR, meanwhile four others banks in the sample did not have a significant correlation. However, the correlation coefficient is below 0.50, which indicates that there is a weak correlation between VaR and CoVaR.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5296

  16. Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, C.

    2010-01-01

    In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).

  17. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  18. Risk measures and their applications in asset management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); B. Kaynar; N. N. Nilay (Nilay)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral approaches exist to model decision making under risk, where risk can be broadly defined as the effect of variability of random outcomes. One of the main approaches in the practice of decision making under risk uses mean-risk models; one such well-known is the classical Markowitz

  19. Measurement of Pleural Temperature During Radiofrequency Ablation of Lung Tumors to Investigate Its Relationship to Occurrence of Pneumothorax or Pleural Effusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajiri, Nobuhisa; Hiraki, Takao; Mimura, Hidefumi; Gobara, Hideo; Mukai, Takashi; Hase, Soichiro; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Iguchi, Toshihiro; Sakurai, Jun; Aoe, Motoi; Sano, Yoshifumi; Date, Hiroshi; Kanazawa, Susumu

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between pleural temperature and pneumothorax or pleural effusion after radiofrequency (RF) ablation of lung tumors. The pleural temperature was measured immediately outside the lung surface nearest to the tumor with a fiber-type thermocouple during 25 ablation procedures for 34 tumors in 22 patients. The procedures were divided into two groups depending on the highest pleural temperature: P-group I and P-group II, with highest pleural temperatures of <40 deg. C and ≥40 deg. C, respectively. The incidence of pneumothorax or pleural effusion was compared between the groups. Multiple variables were compared between the groups to determine the factors that affect the pleural temperature. The overall incidence of pneumothorax and pleural effusion was 56% (14/25) and 20% (5/25), respectively. Temperature data in five ablation procedures were excluded from the analyses because these were affected by the pneumothorax. P-group I and P-group II comprised 10 procedures and 10 procedures, respectively. The incidence of pleural effusion was significantly higher in P-group II (4/10) than in P-group I (0/10) (p = 0.043). However, the incidence of pneumothorax did not differ significantly (p = 0.50) between P-group I (4/10) and P-group II (5/10). Factors significantly affecting the pleural temperature were distance between the electrode and the pleura (p < 0.001) and length of the lung parenchyma between the electrode and the pleura (p < 0.001). We conclude that higher pleural temperature appeared to be associated with the occurrence of pleural effusion and not with that of pneumothorax

  20. Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

  1. Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citrome, Leslie

    2009-09-01

    Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

  2. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  3. Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

  4. Occurrence, sources, and ecological risks of PBDEs, PCBs, OCPs, and PAHs in surface sediments of the Yangtze River Delta city cluster, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ting; Yang, Wen-Long; Chen, She-Jun; Shi, Dian-Long; Zhao, Hu; Ding, Yi; Huang, Ye-Ru; Li, Nan; Ren, Yue; Mai, Bi-Xian

    2014-08-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 25 surface sediments in three cities (Nantong, Wuxi, and Suzhou) in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China were measured. The mean concentrations were 378, 45.8, 1.98, 4,002 ng/g for PBDEs, OCPs, PCBs, and PAHs, respectively. Their levels in the sediments in the three cities were generally consistent with the city industrialization. PBDEs and OCPs were markedly dominated by deca-BDE (>90 %) and DDTs (>70 %). A principle component analysis of the analytes identified three major factors suggesting different sources of the contaminants in the sediments. PBDEs and the organic carbon in the sediments have common sources from industrial activities; whereas OCPs and PCBs, correlated with the second factor, were mainly from historical sources. The third factor with loadings of PAHs is indicative of various combustion sources. Ecological risk assessment indicated that the potential highest risk is from DDTs, for which 22 sites exceed the effects range low (ERL) values and three sites exceed the effects range median (ERM) value.

  5. Occurrence and risk assessment of four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics in raw and treated sewage and in receiving waters in Hangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Changlun; Zhuo, Xiajun; Guo, Yun

    2011-07-13

    A sensitive liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection method, combined with one-step solid-phase extraction, was established for detecting the residual levels of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics (ofloxacin, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and enrofloxacin) in influent, effluent, and surface waters from Hangzhou, China. For the various environmental water matrices, the overall recoveries were from 76.8 to 122%, and no obvious interferences of matrix effect were observed. The limit of quantitation of this method was estimated to be 17 ng/L for ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin, 20 ng/L for ofloxacin, and 27 ng/L for enrofloxacin. All of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics were found in the wastewaters and surface waters. The residual contents of the four typical fluoroquinolone antibiotics in influent, effluent, and surface water samples are 108-1405, 54-429, and 7.0-51.6 ng/L, respectively. The removal rates of the selected fluoroquinolone antibiotics were 69.5 (ofloxacin), 61.3 (norfloxacin), and 50% (enrofloxacin), indicating that activated sludge treatment is effective except for ciprofloxacin and necessary to remove these fluoroquinolone antibiotics in municipal sewage. The risk to the aquatic environment was estimated by a ratio of measured environmental concentration and predicted no-effect concentration. At the concentrations, these fluoroquinolone antibiotics were found in influent, effluent, and surface waters, and they should not pose a risk for the aquatic environment.

  6. On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

  7. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is

  8. Measuring adolescents’ exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L.; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C.; Arseneault, Louise

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents mutlilevel findings on adolescents’ victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severe victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent amongst children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was re-victimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  9. Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

    1999-06-01

    Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

  10. EPA Method 1615. Measurement of Enterovirus and Norovirus Occurrence in Water by Culture and RT-qPCR. II. Total Culturable Virus Assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    A standardized method is required when national studies on virus occurrence in environmental and drinking waters utilize multiple analytical laboratories. The U.S Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Method 1615 was developed with the goal of providing such a standard ...

  11. Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

  12. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  13. Occurrence of Malnutrition and Associated Factors in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Those with a Recent Diagnosis of Cancer Are at Higher Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, C; De Burghgraeve, T; Ummels, M; Gescher, N; Deckx, L; Tjan-Heijnen, V; Buntinx, F; van den Akker, M

    2018-01-01

    In older adults, nutritional health is essential for good quality of life and living independently at home. Especially in cancer patients, malnutrition is common and known to complicate treatment. This study aims to evaluate the nutritional status and its associated factors in community-dwelling older adults with and without cancer. This is an observational study. This study focuses on older community-dwelling people. This study included older people with and without cancer (≥70 years). Cancer patients included patients with a new diagnosis of breast, lung, prostate, or colorectal cancer. Data collection included measures of nutritional status, quality of life, depression, fatigue, distress and functional status. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the association between personal characteristics and malnutrition. Data were available for 657 people; 383 people without cancer and 274 with a cancer diagnosis. Overall, malnutrition was detected in 245 (37.5%) people; in cancer patients this was 66.1%. Multivariate analysis showed that having cancer (OR 14.4, 95% CI: 8.01 - 23.3), being male (OR 2.38, 95% CI: 1.49 - 3.70), having depression (OR 13.5, 95% CI: 6.02-30.0), distress (OR 2.60, 95% CI: 1.55 - 4.37) and impaired instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) (OR 2.63, 95% CI: 1.63 - 4.24) were associated with a higher risk of malnutrition. The prevalence of malnutrition in community-dwelling older people is high, particularly in patients with cancer. Benchmarking and routine screening of older patients may be helpful strategies to increase awareness of (risk of) malnutrition among professionals.

  14. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  15. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be

  16. Occurrence of nitro- and oxy-PAHs in agricultural soils in eastern China and excess lifetime cancer risks from human exposure through soil ingestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhe; Zhu, Ying; Zhuo, Shaojie; Liu, Weiping; Zeng, Eddy Y; Wang, Xilong; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

    2017-11-01

    The quality of agricultural soil is vital to human health, however soil contamination is a severe problem in China. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been found to be among the major soil contaminants in China. PAH derivatives could be more toxic but their measurements in soils are extremely limited. This study reports levels, spatial distributions and compositions of 11 nitrated (nPAHs) and 4 oxygenated PAHs (oPAHs) in agricultural soils covering 26 provinces in eastern China to fill the data gap. The excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) from the exposure to them in addition to 21 parent PAHs (pPAHs) via soil ingestion has been estimated. The mean concentration of ∑nPAHs and ∑oPAHs in agricultural soils is 50±45μg/kg and 9±8μg/kg respectively. Both ∑nPAHs and ∑oPAHs follow a similar spatial distribution pattern with elevated concentrations found in Liaoning, Shanxi, Henan and Guizhou. However if taking account of pPAHs, the high ELCR by soil ingestion is estimated for Shanxi, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Hubei. The maximum ELCR is estimated at ca.10 -5 by both deterministic and probabilistic studies with moderate toxic equivalent factors (TEFs). If maximum TEFs available are applied, there is a 0.2% probability that the ELCR will exceed 10 -4 in the areas covered. There is a great chance to underestimate the ELCR via soil ingestion for some regions if only the 16 priority PAHs in agricultural soils are considered. The early life exposure and burden are considered extremely important to ELCR. Emission sources are qualitatively predicted and for areas with higher ELCR such as Shanxi and Liaoning, new loadings of PAHs and derivatives are identified. This is the first large scale study on nPAHs and oPAHs contamination levels in agricultural soils in China. The risk assessment based on this underpins the policy making and is valuable for both scientists and policy makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Unusual occurrence report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The final report provides information on an occurrence which took place in the HEDL Radioactive Liquid Waste System (RLWS), during which radioactive waste water entered the Retention Process Waste System. The RLWS has been cleared of the obstruction and is in full operation. Investigation of the occurrence and testing of the equipment involved is completed

  18. Measuring compliance of conducting an occupational health risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... health risk assessment in the occupational health nurse's practice. ... A quantitative, descriptive design was used in this study. ... A self-developed questionnaire was distributed by mail and e-mail, and authors sent respondents reminders.

  19. A probabilistic approach for estimating the spatial extent of pesticide agricultural use sites and potential co-occurrence with listed species for use in ecological risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budreski, Katherine; Winchell, Michael; Padilla, Lauren; Bang, JiSu; Brain, Richard A

    2016-04-01

    A crop footprint refers to the estimated spatial extent of growing areas for a specific crop, and is commonly used to represent the potential "use site" footprint for a pesticide labeled for use on that crop. A methodology for developing probabilistic crop footprints to estimate the likelihood of pesticide use and the potential co-occurrence of pesticide use and listed species locations was tested at the national scale and compared to alternative methods. The probabilistic aspect of the approach accounts for annual crop rotations and the uncertainty in remotely sensed crop and land cover data sets. The crop footprints used historically are derived exclusively from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Cultivated Crops and/or Pasture/Hay classes. This approach broadly aggregates agriculture into 2 classes, which grossly overestimates the spatial extent of individual crops that are labeled for pesticide use. The approach also does not use all the available crop data, represents a single point in time, and does not account for the uncertainty in land cover data set classifications. The probabilistic crop footprint approach described herein incorporates best available information at the time of analysis from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) for 5 y (2008-2012 at the time of analysis), the 2006 NLCD, the 2007 NASS Census of Agriculture, and 5 y of NASS Quick Stats (2008-2012). The approach accounts for misclassification of crop classes in the CDL by incorporating accuracy assessment information by state, year, and crop. The NLCD provides additional information to improve the CDL crop probability through an adjustment based on the NLCD accuracy assessment data using the principles of Bayes' Theorem. Finally, crop probabilities are scaled at the state level by comparing against NASS surveys (Census of Agriculture and Quick Stats) of reported planted acres by crop. In an example application of the new method, the probabilistic

  20. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  1. Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

    2017-01-01

    A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

  2. Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasnoff, William A

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

  3. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  4. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe M. King

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of

  5. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

  6. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

  7. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline

    2011-01-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass in...

  8. Adaptation measures and pathways for flood risk in Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Kelder, E.; Anema, K.; van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2014-01-01

    In line with the Adaptive Delta Management approach of the Dutch Delta Programme, Dordrecht has developed a multi-layer safety strategy to meet the future tasking for flood risk management. This strategy puts greater emphasis on limiting the consequences of floods through spatial planning (layer 2)

  9. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  10. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  11. Land Use Measures are Underused in Flood Risk Mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den A.; Neuvel, J.J.M. (Jeroen)

    2010-01-01

    New research in the Netherlands indicates that spatial planning to manage flood risk, such as the elevation of residential areas and the exclusion of vulnerable land uses from flood-prone areas, is underused. Its use appears to depend on governmental requirements, previous experience of flooding and

  12. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  13. Can a coherent risk measure be too subadditive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhaene, J.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Vanduffel, S.; Darkiewicz, G.; Goovaerts, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    We consider the problem of determining appropriate solvency capital requirements for an insurance company or a financial institution. We demonstrate that the subadditivity condition that is often imposed on solvency capital principles can lead to the undesirable situation where the shortfall risk

  14. Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myung-Hee, Y. Kim; Shaowen, Hu; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons

  15. Is energy imparted a good measure of the radiation risk associated with CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.

    1984-01-01

    The dose distribution in a Rando phantom has been measured for typical EMI 5005 CT scans of the head, chest, abdomen and pelvis. These dose distributions have been used to generate quantitative estimates of the somatic and genetic radiation risks associated with these CT examinations and also to measure the total energy imparted during each scan. A comparison has been made between the radiation risk estimates and the energy imparted measurements. The energy imparted measurements are not a good indicator of the somatic and/or genetic risks when one type of CT scan is compared with another. However, for a given type of scan, the energy imparted may be a reasonable indicator of the relative somatic risks associated with different CT examinations. Considerable care should be taken when interpreting and using any measured value of energy imparted in a radiological examination since published values of the risk per unit energy imparted can significantly underestimate the radiation risk. (author)

  16. The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yan; Fu Zhiwei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming; Liu Hongquan

    2012-01-01

    The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

  17. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  18. A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

    2000-01-01

    A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

  19. Theory and Application of an Economic Performance Measure of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Niu (Cuizhen); X. Guo (Xu); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractHomm and Pigorsch (2012a) use the Aumann and Serrano index to develop a new economic performance measure (EPM), which is well known to have advantages over other measures. In this paper, we extend the theory by constructing a one-sample confidence interval of EPM, and construct

  20. Deploying and measuring a risk and patient safety program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orel, Howard; McGroarty, Molly; Marchegiani, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Health care continues to evolve at a rapid rate. Over just the past decade, the industry has seen the introduction and widespread implementation of an electronic health record, increase in presence of nurse practitioners and physician assistants to help manage the shortage of physicians, and the introduction of accountable care organizations. It is with these changes that new challenges and opportunities emerge. One such challenge is the increase in the severity of medical malpractice claims throughout the nation. Another emerging challenge is the introduction of outcome-based reimbursements, with providers potentially losing a portion of their payment should the patient experience result in a preventable adverse event. These trends are resulting in providers continuously seeking innovative approaches to reducing risk and improving patient safety. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  1. Distortion risk measures for sums of dependent losses | Brahimi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of losses and possible correlations between risk components. Resume. Nous discutons deux approches distinctes, de distortion des mesures de risque de la somme de variables al´eatoires d´ependantes, qui conservent la propri´et´e de coh´erence. La premi`ere, bas´ee sur les esp´erances distordues, agit sur la fonction ...

  2. A CONFIRMATORY APPROACH TO MEASURING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    Our proposed research methodology reveals the advantages of a confirmatory factor analysis over an exploratory principal component analysis in the context of risks management in supply chains. Moreover, as Sodhi and Tang (2012 reveals, more than half of papers in existing SCRM literature are either conceptual or qualitative empirical (case studies. Our proposed quantitative methodology contributes to reducing the above mentioned gap, providing results that can be used for statistical inferences and for enhancing the efficiency of the managerial decisional process.

  3. The Effect of Shortfall as a Risk measure for Portfolios with Hedge Funds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Siegmann, A.H.

    2008-01-01

    Current research suggests that the large downside risk in hedge fund returns disqualifies the variance as an appropriate risk measure. For example, one can easily construct portfolios with nonlinear pay-offs that have both a high Sharpe ratio and a high downside risk. This paper examines the

  4. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  5. The occurrence of high-risk factors for hearing loss in very-low-birth-weight neonates: a retrospective exploratory study of targeted hearing screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanji, Amisha; Khoza-Shangase, Katijah

    2012-12-01

    The current study aimed at determining the type and frequency of high-risk factors for hearing loss in a group of very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) neonates in a tertiary hospital in South Africa with the objective of collating evidence that could be used in arguing for or against revisiting targeted hearing screening in developing countries. Furthermore, the study aimed at investigating the relationship between the identified high-risk factors and hearing screening results. In a retrospective data review design, data were collated from files from the VLBW project; this included hearing screening records, as well as records from participant medical and audiology files. Records of 86 neonates with birth weights ranging between 680 g and 1500 g were reviewed. Findings indicated that neonatal jaundice, exposure to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mechanical or assisted ventilation, and neonatal intensive care unit stay greater than 48 hours were the most frequently occurring high-risk factors for hearing loss in the current sample. These factors are consistent with those listed in the high-risk register of the Health Professions Council of South Africa for the South African context. Findings confirm the complexity of risk factors, and the influence that a variety of factors such as poor follow-up or return rate might have on the implementation of early hearing detection and intervention. The importance of establishing context-specific risk factors for effective implementation of targeted screening protocols where niversal newborn hearing screening is not yet a reality was highlighted by the current study.

  6. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  7. Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iordanis Eleftheriadis

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

  8. Challenges for landslide hazard and risk management in ‘low-risk’ regions, Czech Republic—landslide occurrences and related costs (IPL project no. 197)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimeš, Jan; Stemberk, Jakub; Blahůt, Jan; Krejčí, V.; Krejčí, O.; Hartvich, Filip; Kycl, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2017), s. 771-780 ISSN 1612-510X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LG15007 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : landslide inventory * ICL/IPL activities * landslide cost * landslide risk * fatal landslides * public awareness Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 3.657, year: 2016

  9. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  10. Upside and downside beta portfolio construction: A different approach to risk measurement and portfolio construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin Guy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional financial measurements of risk are limited to variance-based methodologies. The most common measurement tool is beta. The beta calculation, however, is directionally agnostic and relies on the assumption of a normal distribution. This is a poor metric by which risk is measured, and is incomplete. The ability to break down beta into Upside and Downside beta allows investors the ability to more intelligently build risk into a portfolio. Using three-year trailing betas may also allow investors the ability to benefit from mean reversion and generate excess returns on a risk-adjusted basis.

  11. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors delay the occurrence of renal involvement and are associated with a decreased risk of disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus--results from LUMINA (LIX): a multiethnic US cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durán-Barragán, S; McGwin, G; Vilá, L M; Reveille, J D; Alarcón, G S

    2008-07-01

    To examine if angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor use delays the occurrence of renal involvement and decreases the risk of disease activity in SLE patients. SLE patients (Hispanics, African Americans and Caucasians) from the lupus in minorities: nature vs nurture (LUMINA) cohort were studied. Renal involvement was defined as ACR criterion and/or biopsy-proven lupus nephritis. Time-to-renal involvement was examined by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Disease activity was examined with a case-crossover design and a conditional logistic regression model; in the case intervals, a decrease in the SLAM-R score >or=4 points occurred but not in the control intervals. Eighty of 378 patients (21%) were ACE inhibitor users; 298 (79%) were not. The probability of renal involvement free-survival at 10 yrs was 88.1% for users and 75.4% for non-users (P = 0.0099, log rank test). Users developed persistent proteinuria and/or biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (7.1%) less frequently than non-users (22.9%), P = 0.016. By multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, ACE inhibitors use [hazard ratio (HR) 0.27; 95% CI 0.09, 0.78] was associated with a longer time-to-renal involvement occurrence whereas African American ethnicity (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.44, 7.61) was with a shorter time. ACE inhibitor use (54/288 case and 254/1148 control intervals) was also associated with a decreased risk of disease activity (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34, 0.94). ACE inhibitor use delays the development of renal involvement and associates with a decreased risk of disease activity in SLE; corroboration of these findings in other lupus cohorts is desirable before practice recommendations are formulated.

  12. Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

  13. Toxicology, occurrence and risk characterisation of the chloropropanols in food: 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres, Susanne; Appel, Klaus E; Lampen, Alfonso

    2013-08-01

    Great attention has been paid to chloropropanols like 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol and the related substance glycidol due to their presence in food and concerns about their toxic potential as carcinogens. The other chloropropanols 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol have been found in certain foods, but occurrence data are generally limited for these compounds. 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol has the most toxicological relevance showing clear carcinogenic effects in rats possibly via a genotoxic mechanism. The dietary exposure to 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol is quite low. Calculated "Margins of Exposure" values are above 10,000. It is concluded that the 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol exposure is of low concern for human health. The toxicology of 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol has not been adequately investigated. Its toxicological potential regarding hepatotoxic effects seems to be lower than that of 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol. Limited data show that 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol occurs only in trace amounts in food, indicating that exposure to 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol seems to be also of low concern for human health. The dietary 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol burden appears to be lower than that of 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol. An adequate risk assessment for 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol cannot be performed due to limited data on the toxicology and occurrence in food. This article reviews the relevant information about the toxicology, occurrence and dietary exposure to the chloropropanols 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Investigation and risk evaluation of the occurrence of carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine, their human metabolites and transformation products in the urban water cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezina, Elena; Prasse, Carsten; Meyer, Johannes; Mückter, Harald; Ternes, Thomas A

    2017-06-01

    Trace organic contaminants such as pharmaceuticals, personal care products and industrial chemicals are frequently detected in the urban water cycle, including wastewater, surface water and groundwater, as well as drinking water. These also include human metabolites (HMs), which are formed in the human body and then excreted via urine or feces, as well as transformation products (TPs) formed in engineered treatment systems and the aquatic environment. In the current study, the occurrence of HMs as well as their TPs of the anticonvulsants carbamazepine (CBZ) and oxcarbazepine (OXC) were investigated using LC tandem MS in effluents of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), surface water and groundwater. Highest concentrations were observed in raw wastewater for 10,11-dihydro-10,11-dihydroxycarbamazepine (DiOHCBZ), 10,11-dihydro-10-hydroxy-cabamazepine (10OHCBZ) and CBZ with concentrations ranging up to 2.7 ± 0.4, 1.7 ± 0.2 and 1.07 ± 0.06 μg L -1 , respectively. Predictions of different toxicity endpoints using a Distributed Structure-Searchable Toxicity (DSSTox) expert system query indicated that several HMs and TPs, in particular 9-carboxy-acridine (9-CA-ADIN) and acridone (ADON), may exhibit an increased genotoxicity compared to the parent compound CBZ. As 9-CA-ADIN was also detected in groundwater, a detailed investigation of the genotoxicity of 9-CA-ADIN is warranted. Investigations of an advanced wastewater treatment plant further revealed that the discharge of the investigated compounds into the aquatic environment could be substantially reduced by ozonation followed by granular activated carbon (GAC) filtration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  16. Urban sustainability : complex interactions and the measurement of risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Diappi

    1999-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the concept of asustainable city and its theoretical implications for the urban system. Urban sustainability is based on positive interactions among three different urban sub-systems : social, economic and physical, where social well-being coexists with economic development and environmental quality. This utopian scenario doesn’t appear. Affluent economy is often associated with poverty and criminality, labour variety and urban efficiency coexist with pollution and congestion. The research subject is the analysis of local risk and opportunity conditions, based on the application of a special definition of risk elaborated and made operative with the production of a set of maps representing the multidimensional facets of spatial organisation in urban sustainability. The interactions among the economic/social and environmental systems are complex and unpredictable and present the opportunity for a new methodology of scientific investigation : the connectionistic approach, processed by Self-Reflexive Neural Networks (SRNN. These Networks are a useful instrument of investigation and analogic questioning of the Data Base. Once the SRNN has learned the structure of the weights from the DB, by querying the network with the maximization or minimization of specific groups of attributes, it is possible to read the related properties and to rank the areas. The survey scale assumed by the research is purposefully aimed at the micro-scale and concerns the Municipality of Milan which is spatially divided into 144 zones.

  17. Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

    2017-10-31

    This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

  18. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  19. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  20. Analysing risk factors of co-occurrence of schistosomiasis haematobium and hookworm using bivariate regression models: Case study of Chikwawa, Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce B.W. Phiri

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth (STH infections constitute a major public health problem in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In areas where prevalence of geo-helminths and schistosomes is high, co-infection with multiple parasite species is common, resulting in disproportionately elevated burden compared with single infections. Determining risk factors of co-infection intensity is important for better design of targeted interventions. In this paper, we examined risk factors of hookworm and S. haematobium co-infection intensity, in Chikwawa district, southern Malawi in 2005, using bivariate count models. Results show that hookworm and S. haematobium infections were much localised with small proportion of individuals harbouring more parasites especially among school-aged children. The risk of co-intensity with both hookworm and S. haematobium was high for all ages, although this diminished with increasing age, increased with fishing (hookworm: coefficient. = 12.29; 95% CI = 11.50–13.09; S. haematobium: 0.040; 95% CI = 0.0037, 3.832. Both infections were abundant in those with primary education (hookworm: coef. = 0.072; 95% CI = 0.056, 0.401 and S. haematobium: coef. = 0.286; 95% CI = 0.034, 0.538. However, much lower risk was observed for those who were farmers (hookworm: coef. = −0.349, 95% CI = −0.547,−0.150; S. haematobium: coef. −0.239, 95% CI = −0.406, −0.072. In conclusion, our findings suggest that efforts to control helminths infection should be co-integrated and health promotion campaigns should be aimed at school-going children and adults who are in constant contact with water.

  1. Occurrence, ecological risk assessment, and spatio-temporal variation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in water and sediments along River Ravi and its northern tributaries, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baqar, Mujtaba; Sadef, Yumna; Ahmad, Sajid Rashid; Mahmood, Adeel; Qadir, Abdul; Aslam, Iqra; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

    2017-12-01

    Ecological risk assessment, spatio-temporal variation, and source apportionment of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were studied in surface sediments and water from River Ravi and its three northern tributaries (Nullah Deg, Nullah Basantar, and Nullah Bein) in Pakistan. In total, 35 PCB congeners were analyzed along 27 sampling stations in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. The ∑ 35 PCB concentration ranged from 1.06 to 95.76 ng/g (dw) in sediments and 1.94 to 11.66 ng/L in water samples, with hexa-CBs and tetra-CBs as most dominant homologs in sediments and water matrixes, respectively. The ∑ 8 DL-PCB levels were 0.33-22.13 ng/g (dw) and 0.16-1.95 ng/L in sediments and water samples, respectively. The WHO-toxic equivalent values were ranged from 1.18 × 10 -6 to 0.012 ng/L and 1.8 × 10 -6 to 0.031 ng/g in water and sediments matrixes, respectively. The ecological risk assessment indicates considerable potential ecological risk during pre-monsoon season ([Formula: see text] = 95.17) and moderate potential ecological risk during post-monsoon season ([Formula: see text] = 49.11). The industrial and urban releases were recognized as key ongoing sources for high PCB levels in environment. Therefore, we recommend more freshwater ecological studies to be conducted in the study area and firm regulatory initiatives are required to be taken in debt to the Stockholm Convention, 2001 to cop up with PCB contamination on emergency basis.

  2. Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of organic micropollutants in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China: A case study of water diversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhenhua; Yang, Haohan; Dong, Huike; Ma, Binni; Sun, Hongwei; Pan, Ting; Jiang, Runren; Zhou, Ranran; Shen, Jie; Liu, Jianchao; Lu, Guanghua

    2018-08-01

    Water diversion has been increasingly applied to improve water quality in many water bodies. However, little is known regarding pollution by organic micropollutants (OMPs) in water diversion projects, especially at the supplier, and this pollution may threaten the quality of transferred water. In the present study, a total of 110 OMPs belonging to seven classes were investigated in water and sediment collected from a supplier of the Yangtze River within four water diversion projects. A total of 69 and 58 target OMPs were detected in water and sediment, respectively, at total concentrations reaching 1041.78 ng/L and 5942.24 ng/g dry weight (dw). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and pharmaceuticals were the predominant pollutants identified. When preliminarily compared with the pollution in the receiving water, the Yangtze River generally exhibited mild OMPs pollution and good water quality parameters, implying a clean water source in the water diversion project. However, in Zongyang and Fenghuangjing, PAHs pollution was more abundant than that in the corresponding receiving water in Chaohu Lake. Ammonia nitrogen pollution in the Wangyu River was comparable to that in Taihu Lake. These findings imply that water diversion may threaten receiving waters in some cases. In addition, the risks of all detected pollutants in both water and sediment were assessed. PAHs in water, especially phenanthrene and high-molecular-weight PAHs, posed high risks to invertebrates, followed by the risks to fish and algae. Pharmaceuticals, such as antibiotics and antidepressants, may also pose risks to algae and fish at a number of locations. To the best of our knowledge, this report is the first to describe OMPs pollution in water diversion projects, and the results provide a new perspective regarding the security of water diversion projects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Occurrences, sources and risk assessment of short- and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in sediments from the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Lin; Xia, Dan; Gao, Lirong; Huang, Huiting; Zheng, Minghui

    2016-12-01

    Chlorinated paraffins (CPs), one class of hydrophobic and toxic compounds, are easily adsorbed into sediments and then pose potential risks to the ecosystem and human health. However, few researches on short- and medium-chain CPs (SCCPs and MCCPs) in sediments have been performed. In order to comprehensively investigate the spatial distributions, sources, and ecological risks of CPs, sediments collected from the middle reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed by two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS). The concentrations of SCCPs and MCCPs ranged from 11.6 to 9.76 × 10 3  ng/g dry weight (dw) and from 8.33 to 168 ng/g dw, respectively. No significant correlation was found between total organic carbon (TOC) and CP concentrations (P > 0.05). The spatial distributions showed that contamination levels of CPs were relevant to human activities. In addition, two types of sediment samples were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and results indicated the predominant congener groups were C 10 Cl 6-7 for SCCPs and C 14 Cl 7-8 for MCCPs. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that SCCPs and MCCPs in the sediments may have different sources, and SCCPs are likely to come from the production and use of CP-42 and CP-52. Moreover, complex environmental processes, including long-range transportation via the atmosphere and/or river, deposition and degradation of CPs, resulted in increased abundances of short chain and low chlorinated congeners in sediment samples compared with commercial mixtures, and different homolog patterns among samples. The significant negative correlation between SCCP concentrations and MCCP/SCCP ratios could be related to long-range transport of CPs. A preliminary risk assessment indicated that CPs at current levels posed no significant ecological risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Childhood trauma, parental death, and their co-occurrence in relation to current suicidality risk in adults: a nationwide community sample of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Hong Jin; Lee, Christina; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Shim, Eun-Jung; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Choi, Hong; Park, Jae-Hyun

    2014-12-01

    Although previous studies have suggested that childhood trauma and parental death are strongly associated with suicidality in adulthood, it is still unclear how these factors interact within the same population. A total of 1396 adults were recruited through nationwide multistage probability sampling in South Korea. Subjects were evaluated through face-to-face interviews using the Suicidality Module of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form. Among the 1396 adults, the group that experienced both childhood trauma and parental death had the highest current suicidality risks (F = 12.16, p suicide attempt (χ2 = 35.81, p suicidality risk and lifetime suicide attempt were significantly associated with concurrent childhood trauma and parental death (odds ratio, 3.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.99-6.65) as well as with only childhood trauma (odds ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.87), after adjusting for age, sex, education, marital status, household monthly income, and living area. Emotional abuse was the only type of childhood trauma significantly associated with higher current suicidality scores in those who experienced childhood parental death than in those who did not (F = 3.26, p = 0.041). Current suicidality risk and lifetime suicide attempt are associated with experiencing both parental death and trauma, especially emotional abuse, in childhood, whereas experiencing only childhood parental death is associated with neither.

  5. The 'time of occurrence' in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, M.D.; Vijayalakshmi, R.

    1981-01-01

    Apart from serving as a parameter in describing the evolution of a system, time appears also as an observable property of a system in experiments where one measures 'the time of occurrence' of an event associated with the system. However, while the observables normally encountered in quantum theory (and characterized by self-adjoint operators or projection-valued measures) correspond to instantaneous measurements, a time of occurrence measurement involves continuous observations being performed on the system to monitor when the event occurs. It is argued that a time of occurrence observable should be represented by a positive-operator-valued measure on the interval over which the experiment is carried out. It is shown that while the requirement of time-translation invariance and the spectral condition rule out the possibility of a self-adjoint time operator (Pauli's theorem), they do allow for time of occurrence observables to be represented by suitable positive-operator-valued measures. It is also shown that the uncertainty in the time of occurrence of an event satisfies the time-energy uncertainty relation as a consequence of the time-translation invariance, only if the time of occurrence experiment is performed on the entire time axis. (author)

  6. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  7. Entropy measure of credit risk in highly correlated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, Sylvia

    2017-07-01

    We compare the single and multi-factor structural models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Single-factor structural models assume that the stochastic process driving the value of a firm is independent of that of other companies. A multi-factor structural model, on the contrary, is built on the assumption that a single firm's value follows a stochastic process correlated with that of other companies. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, but that it is closer to zero in small markets, when asset correlations are low and firms are highly leveraged. These findings suggest that during periods of financial instability, when asset volatility and correlations increase, one of the models misreports actual default risk.

  8. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  9. Elevated Potassium Levels in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure: Occurrence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Outcomes: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Nicolaisen, Sia Kromann; Hasvold, Pål; Garcia-Sanchez, Ricardo; Pedersen, Lars; Adelborg, Kasper; Egfjord, Martin; Egstrup, Kenneth; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

    2018-05-22

    Data on the true burden of hyperkalemia in patients with heart failure (HF) in a real-world setting are limited. Incidence rates of hyperkalemia (first blood test with a potassium level >5.0 mmol/L) in primary or hospital care were assessed in a population-based cohort of patients with incident HF diagnoses in northern Denmark from 2000 to 2012. Risk factors and clinical outcomes were compared in patients with HF with versus without hyperkalemia. Of 31 649 patients with HF, 39% experienced hyperkalemia (mean follow-up, 2.2 years). Risks of experiencing a second, third, or fourth event were 43%, 54%, and 60%, respectively. Among patients with HF with stage 3A, 3B, 4, or 5 kidney dysfunction, 26%, 35%, 44%, and 48% experienced hyperkalemia within the first year. Important hyperkalemia risk factors included chronic kidney disease (prevalence ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.49), diabetes mellitus (prevalence ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.32-1.45), and spironolactone use (prevalence ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.42-1.54). In patients with HF who developed hyperkalemia, 53% had any acute-care hospitalization 6 months before the hyperkalemia event, increasing to 74% 6 months after hyperkalemia (before-after risk ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.38-1.44). Compared with matched patients with HF without hyperkalemia, adjusted 6-month hazard ratios in patients with hyperkalemia were 2.75-fold (95% CI, 2.65-2.85) higher for acute-care hospitalization and 3.39-fold (95% CI, 3.19-3.61) higher for death. Almost 4 in 10 patients with HF develop hyperkalemia, and many patients have recurrent hyperkalemia episodes. Hyperkalemia risk is strongly associated with degree of reduced kidney function and use of spironolactone. Hyperkalemia is associated with severe clinical outcomes and death in HF. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  10. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  11. The relevance of echocardiography heart measures for breeding against the risk of subaortic and pulmonic stenosis in Boxer dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menegazzo, L; Bussadori, C; Chiavegato, D; Quintavalla, C; Bonfatti, V; Guglielmini, C; Sturaro, E; Gallo, L; Carnier, P

    2012-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate the role and relative importance of auscultation and echocardiography traits as risk factors for the diagnosis of subaortic (SubAS) and pulmonic (PS) stenosis and to estimate the heritability (h(2)) of cardiac measurements taken through echocardiography for a random sample of Italian Boxer dogs. The data were cardiovascular examination results of 1,283 Italian Boxer dogs (686 females and 597 males) enrolled in the national screening program for heart defects arranged by the Italian Boxer Club. Examinations were performed during a 6-yr period by a group of 7 veterinary cardiologists following a standard protocol. Occurrence and severity of SubAS and PS were diagnosed, taking into account clinical and echocardiography findings such as the grade of cardiac murmur, direct ultrasound imaging of the anatomic obstructive lesions, and values of aortic or pulmonary blood flow velocities. A Bayesian logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and echocardiography variables related to SubAS and PS diagnosis. Estimation of variance components for clinical and echocardiography traits was performed using a mixed linear animal model, Bayesian procedures, and the Gibbs sampler. Prevalence of SubAS (PS) was 8.4% (2.2) and 10.7% (6.4) for female and male dogs, respectively. Cardiac murmur, peak velocities, and annulus areas behaved as risk factors for SubAS and PS. The risk of a positive diagnosis for SubAS was 3 times greater for dogs with aortic annulus area dogs with areas >2.37 cm(2), 84 times greater for dogs showing aortic peak velocities >2.19 m/s relative to dogs with peak velocities dogs with moderate to severe murmur grades relative to dogs with absent murmur. Similar results were obtained for PS. The estimated h(2) for the occurrence of cardiac defects was 23.3% for SubAS and 8.6% for PS. Echocardiography and cardiac murmur grades exhibited moderate h(2) estimates and exploitable additive genetic variation

  12. Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

    2017-04-01

    This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

  13. Risk factors influencing the duration of treatment with bisphosphonates until occurrence of an osteonecrosis of the jaw in 963 cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbert, Tatjana I; Hoffmeister, Bodo; Felsenberg, Dieter

    2015-04-01

    Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) is an adverse effect that is associated with bisphosphonate (BP) use. Little data are available on risk factors influencing the time of treatment until an osteonecrosis occurs. From 1 Dec 2004 until 21 Sep 2012, the German Register collected all patients with validated diagnoses of ONJ (N = 1,229) that were reported to the national pharmaco-vigilance system or to the Register directly. We analysed 963 patients with cancerous disease and an ONJ during i.v. BP treatment. Duration of BP treatment until first diagnosis of ONJ and Kaplan-Meier curves of ONJ-free survival were analysed stratified by gender, type of BP and type of cancer. Main indications for BP treatment were breast cancer (36%), multiple myeloma (24%), prostate cancer (16%) and kidney cancer (4%). Men suffered from their ONJ earlier than women. A total of 780 patients (81%) had their ONJ during zoledronate treatment, 93 (10%) under pamidronate and 90 (9%) under ibandronate treatment. ONJ-free survival in single BP users was significantly longer in pamidronate-treated patients than in zoledronate or ibandronate users. Ibandronate users had the shortest median duration of treatment (17 months), similar to that of zoledronate users (21.5 months). Sequential prescription of two different BPs prolonged the period of overall BP treatment until an ONJ occurred. Time of BP treatment was shortest in patients with kidney cancer. Age or a concomitant osteoporosis did not influence the time to event of an ONJ. Systemic risk factors such as gender play a significant role in certain subgroups only. Comparative analysis of different cancer patients helps the treating oncologist/dentist to identify patients with a more imminent risk to develop an ONJ (i.e. kidney cancer, ibandronate/zoledronate use).

  14. A risk prediction score model for predicting occurrence of post-PCI vasovagal reflex syndrome: a single center study in Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Yan; Guo, Yu-Tao; Tian, Cui; Song, Chao-Qun; Mu, Yang; Li, Yang; Chen, Yun-Dai

    2017-08-01

    The vasovagal reflex syndrome (VVRS) is common in the patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. From the hospital electronic medical database, we identified 3550 patients who received PCI (78.0% males, mean age 60 years) in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed. The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation (all P PCI was 4.5% (4.1%-5.6%). Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stents implantation in the left anterior descending (LAD), and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS (all P PCI (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI: 0.72-0.79, P PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81-0.87, P PCI. In which, the following factors may be involved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.

  15. [Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

  16. Ventilator associated pneumonia: risk factors and preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, J L; Lobo, S; Struelens, M

    2001-11-01

    Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common nosocomial infection associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Various risk factors for VAP have been identified and include the duration of ICU stay and of mechanical ventilation, a diagnosis of trauma, and severity of illness. Knowledge of these factors can promote early diagnosis and hence treatment. In addition to simple, but very effective, basic hygiene, different preventative strategies have been suggested, and can be divided into those that aim to limit airway colonization, and those that improve host defense mechanisms. Of the former, non-invasive ventilation is effective but not always applicable or available, nursing the patient in the semi-recumbent position is also associated with a reduced incidence of VAP but carries its own problems, stress ulcer prophylaxis remains controversial, and selective digestive decontamination is probably only relevant to certain subgroups of patients. Methods to improve host defense include early nutrition. Immunostimulatory therapies, such as interferon and granulocyte colony stimulating factor, require further research to confirm their place in the prevention or management of VAP.

  17. Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stockwell Alannah

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. Methods The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New Zealand legislation, and scientific literature. Results Seven of the ten films contained at least one tobacco reference, similar to larger film samples. The majority of the 38 tobacco references involved characters smoking, most of whom were male. Smoking was associated with positive character traits, notably rebellion (which may appeal to adolescents. There appeared to be a low threshold for including smoking in film. Legislative or censorship approaches to smoking in film are currently unlikely to succeed. Anti-smoking advertising before films has promise, but experimental research is required to demonstrate cost effectiveness. Conclusion Smoking in film warrants concern from public health advocates. In New Zealand, pre-film anti-smoking advertising appears to be the most promising immediate policy response.

  18. Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Jesse; Fry, Bridget; Smith, Tara; Okawa, Ken; Chakrabarti, Anannya; Ah-Yen, Damien; Yi, Jesse; Townsend, Simon; Carroll, Rebecca; Stockwell, Alannah; Sievwright, Andrea; Dew, Kevin; Thomson, George

    2006-10-04

    Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New Zealand legislation, and scientific literature. Seven of the ten films contained at least one tobacco reference, similar to larger film samples. The majority of the 38 tobacco references involved characters smoking, most of whom were male. Smoking was associated with positive character traits, notably rebellion (which may appeal to adolescents). There appeared to be a low threshold for including smoking in film. Legislative or censorship approaches to smoking in film are currently unlikely to succeed. Anti-smoking advertising before films has promise, but experimental research is required to demonstrate cost effectiveness. Smoking in film warrants concern from public health advocates. In New Zealand, pre-film anti-smoking advertising appears to be the most promising immediate policy response.

  19. Herd-level risk factors for the seropositivity to Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae and the occurrence of enzootic pneumonia among fattening pigs in areas of endemic infection and high pig density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathues, H; Chang, Y M; Wieland, B; Rechter, G; Spergser, J; Rosengarten, R; Kreienbrock, L; Grosse Beilage, E

    2014-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to identify potential risk factors for the occurrence of enzootic pneumonia (EP) in herds situated in a region of high pig density, where a majority of herds is endemically infected with Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. Between 2006 and 2010, overall 100 herds were enrolled in a case-control study. Data were collected through personal interview with the farmers, clinical examination of pigs and their environments, and serological testing for M. hyopneumoniae, swine influenza virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus. There were 40 case herds (coughing index high, seroprevalence high) with a mean coughing index of 4.3 and a seroprevalence of 86.6%. There were two control groups. Control group I consisted of 25 herds (coughing index low, seroprevalence low) with mean values of 0.7 and 11.2%, and 35 herds were allocated to control group II (coughing index low, seroprevalence high) where the mean coughing index was 0.9 and seroprevalence 86.3%. Case herds and control II herds had an increased age of piglets at weaning compared to control I herds. Any contact between fattening pigs of different age during restocking of compartments increased the risk for the occurrence of EP in a herd. Finally, farms that use living animals for the exposure to gilts during the acclimatization and farms that had increased number of weaned piglets per sow and year were less likely to test positive for M. hyopneumoniae and less likely to develop clinical symptoms of EP in fattening pigs. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  20. Yet Another Mammography Measure to Evaluate Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Nielsen, Mads

    ),  Tabar Patterns (Tabar et al 1982) , radiologist’s categorical scorings Breast Imaging Report and Data System® (BIRADS) (ACR 2003) and computer-assisted planimetric measures of area percentage dense tissue (Byng et al 1994). All these rely on a radiologist’s assessment of mammographic appearance.  We...... of the statistical analysis when their scores were computed. This was always done leaving a case and a control out simultaneously to treat both classes equal. Results: The categorical score significantly separated cancer and control (p=0.001) and also interval and screen cancers (p=0.04). Similar results were...

  1. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks; Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... A bank subject to this appendix must have a risk management system that meets the following minimum... management and is independent from business trading units. (2) The bank's internal risk measurement model... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank...

  2. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  3. Implications of multiple risk factors for delineation of disease control zones: Case study on foot-and-mouth disease occurrence in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chrisostom, Ayebazibwe; Okurut, Ademun Anna Rose; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    strategies to promote disease control and livestock trade in endemic countries was to introduce the concept of disease-free zones within which specific sanitary and market standards have to be met. In Africa, it is only Namibia, Botswana and South Africa that have ever had FMD free OIE-declared zones......, water, animal products, utensils and livestock-human contacts. Like other developing countries, animal production and marketing are heavily constrained by limited access to lucrative international markets because of failure to meet the required standards by the World Trade Organization. One of the major....... In pursuit of possibilities of beef export to EU and other markets within Africa by the year 2020, Uganda delineated two disease control zones (DCZs) in areas with large livestock populations and as a consequence high risk for FMD, thus requiring high capital investment. This paper highlights the multiple...

  4. Occurrence, sources and health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils around oil wells in the border regions between oil fields and suburbs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiao-Wen; Li, Tian-Yuan; Ji, Lei; Wang, Lei-Lei; Zheng, Li-Wen; Wang, Jia-Ning; Zhang, Qiang

    2018-08-15

    The Yellow River Delta (YRD) is a typical region where oil fields generally overlap cities and towns, leading to complex soil contamination from both the oil fields and human activities. To clarify the distribution, speciation, potential sources and health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils of border regions between oil fields and suburbs of the YRD, 138 soil samples (0-20 cm) were collected among 12 sampling sites located around oil wells with different extraction histories. The 16 priority control PAHs (16PAHs), as selected by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), were extracted via an accelerated solvent extraction and detected by GC-MS. The results showed that soils of the study area were generally polluted by the 16PAHs. Among these pollutions, chrysene and phenanthrene were the dominant components, and 4-ring PAHs were the most abundant. A typical temporal distribution pattern of the 16PAHs was revealed in soils from different sampling sites around oil wells with different exploitation histories. The concentrations of total 16PAHs and high-ring PAHs (HPAHs) both increased with the extraction time of the nearby oil wells. Individual PAH ratios and PCA method revealed that the 16PAHs in soil with newly developed oil wells were mainly from petroleum pollutants, whereas PAHs in soils around oil wells with a long exploitation history were probably from petroleum contamination; combustion of petroleum, fuel, and biomass; and degradation and migration of PAHs from petroleum. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the health risks of the 7 carcinogenic PAHs and 9 non-carcinogenic PAHs in the study area. The results indicated that ingestion and dermal contact were the predominant pathways of exposure to PAH residues in soils. Both the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic burden of the 16PAHs in soils of the oil field increased significantly with exploitation time of nearby oil wells. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All

  5. [Is a patient's knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors better after the occurrence of a major ischemic event? Survey of 135 cases and 260 controls].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lensel, A-S; Lermusiaux, P; Boileau, C; Feugier, P; Sérusclat, A; Zerbib, Y; Ninet, J

    2013-12-01

    We hypothezised that patients (cases) who are hospitalized for a major ischemic event--myocardial infarction, stroke, decompensation of peripheral arterial disease--acquire better knowledge than a control population--atheromatous patients without a major ischemic event, patients consulting for a vein disease or a diabetes evaluation, and accompanists--about cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity) and have a better understanding of the usefulness of making changes in their lifestyle (quit smoking, regular exercise, Mediterranean diet, low salt diet, weight control, diabetes care). A questionnaire was proposed at vascular surgery consultations and vascular and cardiac functional explorations, at the M Pavillon of the Édouard-Herriot hospital, Lyon, France. In five months, 395 questionnaires (135 cases and 260 controls) were analyzed. The global knowledge score was statistically higher for cases than for controls (cases 3.23±1.81; controls 2.77±2.03; P=0.037). Cases did not abide by monitoring and dietary rules better, except as regards the management of diabetes. Regular physical activity was statistically more prevalent among controls than among cases. Cases mainly received their information from their doctors (general practitioner for 59% of controls and 78% of cases, cardiologist for 25% of controls and 57% of cases) while controls got their information more through magazines or advertising. Our results show that after a major ischemic event, cases' knowledge of risk factors is better than the rest of the population without improved rules lifestyle changes. This suggests the usefulness of evaluating a therapeutic education program for atheromatous disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk Factors for Salmonella, Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli and Campylobacter Occurrence in Primary Production of Leafy Greens and Strawberries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siele Ceuppens

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The microbiological sanitary quality and safety of leafy greens and strawberries were assessed in the primary production in Belgium, Brazil, Egypt, Norway and Spain by enumeration of Escherichia coli and detection of Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC and Campylobacter. Water samples were more prone to containing pathogens (54 positives out of 950 analyses than soil (16/1186 and produce on the field (18/977 for leafy greens and 5/402 for strawberries. The prevalence of pathogens also varied markedly according to the sampling region. Flooding of fields increased the risk considerably, with odds ratio (OR 10.9 for Salmonella and 7.0 for STEC. A significant association between elevated numbers of generic E. coli and detection of pathogens (OR of 2.3 for STEC and 2.7 for Salmonella was established. Generic E. coli was found to be a suitable index organism for Salmonella and STEC, but to a lesser extent for Campylobacter. Guidelines on frequency of sampling and threshold values for E. coli in irrigation water may differ from region to region.

  7. Retrospective study on the occurrence of canine lymphoma and associated breed risks in a population of dogs in NSW (2001-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Ppy; Dhand, N K; Thomson, P C; Taylor, R M

    2017-05-01

    To identify risk factors for canine lymphoma in dogs from New South Wales, Australia, and to compare factors affecting remission duration. Client-owned dogs diagnosed with lymphoma presented to the University Veterinary Teaching Hospital (UVTH), University of Sydney, between 2001 and 2009 (n = 134) were compared with a control population of dogs seen in that period of time with a diagnosis other than lymphoma to evaluate association of explanatory variables (breed, age and sex) with the outcome (case or control status). The Australian Cattle Dog (odds ratio (OR) = 4.71; 95% confidence interval (Cl) 2.31-9.62; P Border Collie (OR = 3.38; 95% Cl 1.52-7.53; P = 0.008) and Boxer (OR = 3.85; 95% Cl 1.65-8.95; P = 0.006) also have increased odds of lymphoma among the pure-breed dogs attending the UVTH when compared with crossbred dogs. The results of this study confirmed a breed predilection for lymphoma in dogs, with the Australian Cattle Dog and Doberman having increased odds of lymphoma. © 2017 Australian Veterinary Association.

  8. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  9. Reading curriculum-based measurement: screening Portuguese students at risk for dyslexia

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz, Paula Marisa Fortunato; Martins, Ana Paula Loução

    2016-01-01

    This poster presentation will present results from a study developed within the rst level of support, primary prevention, which was focused on identifying and preventing academic problems from occurring in those students enrolled in a school setting. How progress measurement was used in reading comprehension as a universal school screening system for third-grade Portuguese students will be analyzed. Results for level and growth in both groups of students at risk and not at risk and the risk ...

  10. Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szecsenyi Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD, patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European countries (EPA-Cardio, we have developed and tested a set of standardized measures, linked to previously developed quality indicators. Methods A structured stepwise procedure was followed to develop measures. First, the research team allocated 106 validated quality indicators to one of the three target populations (established CVD, at high risk, at low risk and to different data-collection methods (data abstraction from the medical records, a patient survey, an interview with lead practice GP/a practice survey. Secondly, we selected a number of other validated measures to enrich the assessment. A pilot study was performed to test the feasibility. Finally, we revised the measures based on the findings. Results The EPA-Cardio measures consisted of abstraction forms from the medical-records data of established Coronary Heart Disease (CHD-patients - and high-risk groups, a patient questionnaire for each of the 3 groups, an interview questionnaire for the lead GP and a questionnaire for practice teams. The measures were feasible and accepted by general practices from different countries. Conclusions An internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management, linked to validated quality indicators and tested for feasibility in general practice, is now available. Careful development and pilot testing of the measures are crucial in international studies of quality of healthcare.

  11. Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Curtis

    1999-01-01

    This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately

  12. Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data...

  13. Potential Harmful Effects of PM2.5 on Occurrence and Progression of Acute Coronary Syndrome: Epidemiology, Mechanisms, and Prevention Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Meng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The harmful effects of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <2.5 µm (PM2.5 and its association with acute coronary syndrome (ACS has gained increased attention in recent years. Significant associations between PM2.5 and ACS have been found in most studies, although sometimes only observed in specific subgroups. PM2.5-induced detrimental effects and ACS arise through multiple mechanisms, including endothelial injury, an enhanced inflammatory response, oxidative stress, autonomic dysfunction, and mitochondria damage as well as genotoxic effects. These effects can lead to a series of physiopathological changes including coronary artery atherosclerosis, hypertension, an imbalance between energy supply and demand to heart tissue, and a systemic hypercoagulable state. Effective strategies to prevent the harmful effects of PM2.5 include reducing pollution sources of PM2.5 and population exposure to PM2.5, and governments and organizations publicizing the harmful effects of PM2.5 and establishing air quality standards for PM2.5. PM2.5 exposure is a significant risk factor for ACS, and effective strategies with which to prevent both susceptible and healthy populations from an increased risk for ACS have important clinical significance in the prevention and treatment of ACS.

  14. A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

  15. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  16. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk, S. B.; Takken, T.; Prinsen, E. C.; Wittink, H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ra...

  17. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  18. CO-OCCURRENCE OF DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cardiovascular disease (CVD), and when they co-exist ... and hypertension among patients with co-occurrence ... are any clinical and metabolic differences between those ... The last 3 readings of their fasting blood .... as insulin resistance, aging, obesity, use of thiazide ... therapy as risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

  19. EPA Method 1615. Measurement of Enterovirus and Norovirus Occurrence in Water by Culture and RT-qPCR. Part III. Virus Detection by RT-qPCR

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA Method 1615 measures enteroviruses and noroviruses present in environmental and drinking waters. The viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) from water sample concentrates is extracted and tested for enterovirus and norovirus RNA using reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). V...

  20. Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, William; Ganna, Andrea; Ingelsson, Erik; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population. Using simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease. We estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval. We conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  2. Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaan Sözmen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

  3. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  4. Radon measurements in Ghana: health risk assesment at the Lake Bosomtwi basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andam, A.A.B.; Addison, E.C.K.; Nani, E.K.; Amankwah, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    The need to assess the risk of exposure to radon and its daughters stems from the reality, that radon is a potential carcinogenic. We report Radon-222 risk assessment, from measurements on soil and sediments taken from six towns along the Lake Bosomtwi basin at two levels of 10cm and 20cm. The current and future prospects of Lake Bosomtwi, the largest natural lake in Ghana, make this assessment imperative, since radon forms half of natural background radiation. Spatial Analyser Decision Assistant (SADA) algorithms were used to model the measured radon concentrations under two land-use scenarios, namely residential and recreational. Setting the data under a targeted risk of 1E-6,we found that the external exposure was below that of the maximum concentrations to the measurements. This indicates that the radon levels around those towns as of the time of the measurements is low and below limits which can cause carcinogenic threats. The mean risk associated with the sampled locations was found to be 9E-11 at the recreational areas and 2E-8 at residential centres. To confirm the authenticity of the point risk analysis, geospatial modelling based on inverse distance interpolation schemes were performed. The results tally closely with that of the measured point risk analysis with and error margin of 2% and 1.3 % for both land use scenarios at 10 cm and 20 cm depth respectively. (au)

  5. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinella Cadoni

    Full Text Available It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  6. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  7. Risk measurement for oil and gas exploration: the marriage of geological and financial techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, T.

    2002-09-01

    A method is presented for fully risking projects, such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value of an exploration project overstates the 'value', because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation. if the expected value is calculable, then the risk-adjusted value (RAV) can also be calculated. The RAV depends additionally upon the size of the exploration budget, compared with the project, and also upon the 'price of risk'. That price is incorporated from the finance literature. The technique permits answering three related questions: 1) the risk-adjusted rate of return for a given project; 2) the risk-adjusted value of that project; or 3) the risk premium appropriate for a particular project, given the size of the firm's exploration budget. (author)

  8. Evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control measures via the occurrence of DDTs and HCHs in wet deposition of an urban center, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ling-Chuan; Bao, Lian-Jun; Li, Shao-Meng; Tao, Shu; Zeng, Eddy Y

    2017-04-01

    Wet deposition is not only a mechanism for removing atmospheric pollutants, but also a process which reflects loadings of atmospheric pollutants. Our previous study on wet deposition examined the effectiveness of short-term control measures on atmospheric particulate pollution, which were partly effective for organic pollutants of current input sources. In the present study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), representative of legacy contaminants, were measured in the same samples collected throughout the entire year of 2010 in Guangzhou, a large urban center in South China. Concentrations of ∑DDT (sum of o,p' and p,p'-DDT, o,p' and p,p'-DDE, o,p' and p,p'-DDD, and p,p'-DDMU) and ∑HCH (sum of α-, β-, γ-, and δ-HCH) in wet deposition were in the ranges of nd-69 (average: 1.8 ng L -1 ) and nd-150 ng L -1 (average: 5.1 ng L -1 ), respectively. In addition, the results of source diagnostics and backward air mass trajectories appeared to suggest the transport of antifouling paint derived DDTs from the coastal region off South China to Guangzhou. The combined wet and dry deposition flux of ∑HCH in the first quarter (January to March) was greater than that in the fourth quarter (October to December), while those of ∑DDT were comparable in the first and fourth quarters. Similar trends were also observed for the concentrations of ∑HCH and ∑DDT in aerosol samples. These results suggested the short-term pollution control measures implemented during the 16th Asian Games and 10th Asian Para Games (held in November and December 2010, respectively) did not work well for DDTs. The reduced input of HCHs during the fourth quarter was probably associated with the strict ban on lindane for food safety, which also exposed the weakness of control measures focusing mainly on the removal of atmospheric particulate matter. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ararat, Cagin

    In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

  10. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  11. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Richmond

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n=1,040 at the ages of 11–15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2 and WC (cm were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese were created using validated international (BMI and national (WC cut-off points. A Poisson regression analysis controlling for relevant covariates (sex, previous injury, sport participation, intervention group, and aerobic fitness level estimated the risk of sport injury [incidence rate ratios (IRR with 95% confidence intervals (CI]. Results. There was an increased risk of time loss injury (IRR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.01–8.04 and knee injury (IRR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.00–6.94 in adolescents that were overweight/obese; however, increases in injury risk for all injury and lower extremity injury were not statistically significant. Estimates suggested a greater risk of time loss injury [IRR = 1.63 (95% CI: 0.93–2.47] in adolescents with high measures of WC. Conclusions. There is an increased risk of time loss injury and knee injury in overweight/obese adolescents. Sport injury prevention training programs should include strategies that target all known risk factors for injury.

  12. Analysis of the effectiveness of the variance and Downside Risk measures for formation of investment portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariúcha Nóbrega Bezerra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the efficacy of variance and measures of downside risk for of formation of investment portfolios in the Brazilian stock market. Using the methodologies of Ang (1975, Markowitz et al. (1993, Ballestero (2005, Estrada (2008 and Cumova and Nawrocki (2011, sought to find what the best method to solve the problem of asymmetric and endogenous matrix and, inspired by the work of Markowitz (1952 and Lohre, Neumann and Winterfeldt (2010, intended to be seen which risk metric is most suitable for the realization of more efficient allocation of resources in the stock market in Brazil. The sample was composed of stocks of IBrX 50, from 2000 to 2013. The results indicated that when the semivariance was used as a measure of asymmetric risk, if the investor can use more refined models for solving the problem of asymmetric semivariance-cosemivariance matrix, the model of Cumova and Nawrocki (2011 will be more effective. Furthermore, from the Brazilian data, VaR had become more effective than variance and other measures of downside risk with respect to minimizing the risk of loss. Thus, taken the assumption that the investor has asymmetric preferences regarding risk, forming portfolios of stocks in the Brazilian market is more efficient when using criteria of minimizing downside risk than the traditional mean-variance approach.

  13. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, S B; Takken, T; Prinsen, E C; Wittink, H

    2012-05-01

    To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio and body fat percentage were considered the anthropometric adiposity measures. Primary CVD risk factors were: systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose. Two independent reviewers performed abstract, full text and data selection. Twenty articles were included describing 21,618 males and 24,139 females. Waist circumference had the strongest correlation with all CVD risk factors for both men and women, except for HDL and LDL in men. When comparing BMI with waist circumference, the latter showed significantly better correlations to CVD risk factors, except for diastolic blood pressure in women and HDL and total cholesterol in men. We recommend the use of waist circumference in clinical and research studies above other anthropometric adiposity measures, especially compared with BMI, when evaluating CVD risk factors.

  15. Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yijun

    The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

  16. The risk of vector-borne infections in sled dogs associated with existing and new endemic areas in Poland. Part 2: Occurrence and control of babesiosis in a sled dog kennel during a 13-year-long period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajer, Anna; Mierzejewska, Ewa J; Rodo, Anna; Welc-Falęciak, Renata

    2014-05-28

    The achievements of sled dogs in competitions depend both on their training and on their health. Vector-borne infections may lead to anemia, affect joints or heart muscles or even cause death. Canine babesiosis is an emerging, quickly spreading tick-borne disease in Central Europe. Over a 13-year period (2000-2012) the occurrence of babesiosis cases was analyzed in one sled dog kennel situated in Kury, a village near Tłuszcz (N 52°24'56.78″, E 21°30'37.55″) in Central Poland. Twenty cases/episodes of babesiosis were noted among the 10-12 dogs living in the kennel. In 2000-2004, no cases of babesiosis were noted; the first two cases were noted in April 2005. Since that time, only one dog remained uninfected; 6 dogs were infected once, 3 dogs demonstrated symptoms of babesiosis twice, one dog was infected three times and one dog had it five times. Babesiosis appeared in Spring and Autumn, despite the application of anti-tick treatment. No fatal cases were recorded, but in one case a splenectomy was performed due to splenomegaly and spleen rupture. Additionally, the abundance of the main Babesia canis vector, the Dermacentor reticulatus tick, was estimated and monitored during a 4-year period (2008-2012) close to the dog kennel. The abundance of questing ticks was high in 2008 and 2009, but dropped by 10-fold between 2010 and 2012, when the abandoned meadow was cut and used as horse pasture by the local farmer. The regular occurrence, typical seasonal pattern and identification of B. canis DNA in questing tick from this locality confirmed the establishment of a new hyper enzootic region for canine babesiosis. The effectiveness and schedule of applied preventive measures were discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke: the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline; Kee, Frank; Palmieri, Luigi; Ferrario, Marco M; Montaye, Michèle; Amouyel, Philippe; Dallongeville, Jean

    2011-10-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass index (BMI). The association of BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR with stroke was assessed in 31,201 men and 23,516 women, free of vascular disease at baseline, from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 1130 strokes were recorded. Relative risks (95% CI) were calculated by Cox regression after stratification for center and adjustment for age, smoking, educational level, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and BMI and model fit was assessed using log-likelihoods. BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke in men. After full adjustment including BMI, the relative risks for stroke remained significant for WC (1.19 [1.02 to 1.34] per 1 SD increase in WC), WHR (1.14 [1.03 to 1.26]), and WHtR (1.50 [1.28 to 1.77]). Among women, the extent of the associations with stroke risk was similar for WHtR (1.31 [1.04 to 1.65]), WC (1.19 [0.96 to 1.47]), and WHR (1.08 [0.97 to 1.22]). Further analyses by World Health Organization obesity categories showed that WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke also in lean men and women (BMI<25 kg/m2), independently of confounders, cardiovascular risk factors, and BMI. Indicators of abdominal adiposity, especially WHtR, are more strongly associated with stroke risk than BMI. These results emphasize the importance of measuring abdominal adiposity, especially in lean subjects.

  18. Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, Jamil

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

  19. Occurrence, effects and risks of marine microplastics

    OpenAIRE

    Van Cauwenberghe, L.

    2015-01-01

    Plastics are present in every aspects of our everyday life. The combination of properties such as its versatility, light weight, strength and durability, have made plastic a very popular material for use in a myriad of applications. Their widespread use has driven the annual global production from 1.7 million tonnes (MT) in the 1950s to 299 MT in 2013. Although the societal benefits of plastic are undeniable, there are serious environmental concerns associated with it. One aspect of this is m...

  20. Identifying measures to balance the risk profile of the Tihange 2 NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Eer, A.M.; Monniez, J.J.

    2001-01-01

    In Belgium, each Nuclear Power Plant is subject to a periodic safety reassessment. In this context, it was found to be desirable to perform a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in support of the ten yearly back-fitting process. The Tihange 2 NPP is a 3-loop PWR having a thermal capacity of 2905 MW. Analysis of the plant's risk profile shows that implementing feasible measures for improvement of the shutdown risk, would be beneficial. This is because a configuration leading to significant risk, namely cold pressurization when the residual heat removal system is lost during reduced primary inventory, thus can be avoided. As a result the risk between reactor shutdown and power operation will be balanced. The presentation describes the lessons learnt regarding the Tihange 2 shutdown PSA model and the expected benefits following implementation of one of the proposed measures. (author)

  1. Assessing the occurrence of the dibromide radical (Br₂⁻•) in natural waters: measures of triplet-sensitised formation, reactivity, and modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Mailhot, Gilles; Sarakha, Mohamed; Brigante, Marcello; Vione, Davide

    2012-11-15

    The triplet state of anthraquinone-2-sulphonate (AQ2S) is able to oxidise bromide to Br(•)/Br(2)(-•), with rate constant (2-4)⋅10(9)M(-1)s(-1) that depends on the pH. Similar processes are expected to take place between bromide and the triplet states of naturally occurring chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). The brominating agent Br(2)(-•) could thus be formed in natural waters upon oxidation of bromide by both (•)OH and (3)CDOM*. Br(2)(-•) would be consumed by disproportionation into bromide and bromine, as well as upon reaction with nitrite and most notably with dissolved organic matter (DOM). By using the laser flash photolysis technique, and phenol as model organic molecule, a second-order reaction rate constant of ~3⋅10(2)L(mg C)(-1)s(-1) was measured between Br(2)(-•) and DOM. It was thus possible to model the formation and reactivity of Br(2)(-•) in natural waters, assessing the steady-state [Br(2)(-•)]≈10(-13)-10(-12)M. It is concluded that bromide oxidation by (3)CDOM* would be significant compared to oxidation by (•)OH. The (3)CDOM*-mediated process would prevail in DOM-rich and bromide-rich environments, the latter because elevated bromide would completely scavenge (•)OH. Under such conditions, (•)OH-assisted formation of Br(2)(-•) would be limited by the formation rate of the hydroxyl radical. In contrast, the formation rate of (3)CDOM* is much higher compared to that of (•)OH in most surface waters and would provide a large (3)CDOM* reservoir for bromide to react with. A further issue is that nitrite oxidation by Br(2)(-•) could be an important source of the nitrating agent (•)NO(2) in bromide-rich, nitrite-rich and DOM-poor environments. Such a process could possibly account for significant aromatic photonitration observed in irradiated seawater and in sunlit brackish lagoons. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessing the occurrence of the dibromide radical (Br2−·) in natural waters: Measures of triplet-sensitised formation, reactivity, and modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Mailhot, Gilles; Sarakha, Mohamed; Brigante, Marcello; Vione, Davide

    2012-01-01

    The triplet state of anthraquinone-2-sulphonate (AQ2S) is able to oxidise bromide to Br · /Br 2 −· , with rate constant (2–4) ⋅ 10 9 M −1 s −1 that depends on the pH. Similar processes are expected to take place between bromide and the triplet states of naturally occurring chromophoric dissolved organic matter ( 3 CDOM*). The brominating agent Br 2 −· could thus be formed in natural waters upon oxidation of bromide by both · OH and 3 CDOM*. Br 2 −· would be consumed by disproportionation into bromide and bromine, as well as upon reaction with nitrite and most notably with dissolved organic matter (DOM). By using the laser flash photolysis technique, and phenol as model organic molecule, a second-order reaction rate constant of ∼ 3 ⋅ 10 2 L (mg C) −1 s −1 was measured between Br 2 −· and DOM. It was thus possible to model the formation and reactivity of Br 2 −· in natural waters, assessing the steady-state [Br 2 −· ] ≈ 10 −13 –10 −12 M. It is concluded that bromide oxidation by 3 CDOM* would be significant compared to oxidation by · OH. The 3 CDOM*-mediated process would prevail in DOM-rich and bromide-rich environments, the latter because elevated bromide would completely scavenge · OH. Under such conditions, · OH-assisted formation of Br 2 −· would be limited by the formation rate of the hydroxyl radical. In contrast, the formation rate of 3 CDOM* is much higher compared to that of · OH in most surface waters and would provide a large 3 CDOM* reservoir for bromide to react with. A further issue is that nitrite oxidation by Br 2 −· could be an important source of the nitrating agent · NO 2 in bromide-rich, nitrite-rich and DOM-poor environments. Such a process could possibly account for significant aromatic photonitration observed in irradiated seawater and in sunlit brackish lagoons. Highlights: ► The triplet state of anthraquinone-2-sulphonate oxidises bromide to Br 2 −· . ► Dissolved organic matter is

  3. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  4. Differences in Measuring Market Risk in Four Subsectors of the Digital Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Sonia Benito; Rebeca de Juan; Ricardo Gómez; Francisco Mochón

    2015-01-01

    This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to estimate market risk of the four subsectors of the digital economy. The riskiest subsector is Mobile/Inter...

  5. Measuring children's self-reported sport participation, risk perception and injury history: development and validation of a survey instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siesmaa, Emma J; Blitvich, Jennifer D; White, Peta E; Finch, Caroline F

    2011-01-01

    Despite the health benefits associated with children's sport participation, the occurrence of injury in this context is common. The extent to which sport injuries impact children's ongoing involvement in sport is largely unknown. Surveys have been shown to be useful for collecting children's injury and sport participation data; however, there are currently no published instruments which investigate the impact of injury on children's sport participation. This study describes the processes undertaken to assess the validity of two survey instruments for collecting self-reported information about child cricket and netball related participation, injury history and injury risk perceptions, as well as the reliability of the cricket-specific version. Face and content validity were assessed through expert feedback from primary and secondary level teachers and from representatives of peak sporting bodies for cricket and netball. Test-retest reliability was measured using a sample of 59 child cricketers who completed the survey on two occasions, 3-4 weeks apart. Based on expert feedback relating to face and content validity, modification and/or deletion of some survey items was undertaken. Survey items with low test-retest reliability (κ≤0.40) were modified or deleted, items with moderate reliability (κ=0.41-0.60) were modified slightly and items with higher reliability (κ≥0.61) were retained, with some undergoing minor modifications. This is the first survey of its kind which has been successfully administered to cricketers aged 10-16 years to collect information about injury risk perceptions and intentions for continued sport participation. Implications for its generalisation to other child sport participants are discussed. Copyright © 2010 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing the occurrence of the dibromide radical (Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}}) in natural waters: Measures of triplet-sensitised formation, reactivity, and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio [Universita degli Studi di Torino, Dipartimento di Chimica, Via P. Giuria 5, 10125 Torino (Italy); Mailhot, Gilles; Sarakha, Mohamed [Clermont Universite, Universite Blaise Pascal, Institut de Chimie de Clermont-Ferrand, BP 10448, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand (France); CNRS, UMR 6296, ICCF, F-63171 Aubiere (France); Brigante, Marcello, E-mail: marcello.brigante@univ-bpclermont.fr [Clermont Universite, Universite Blaise Pascal, Institut de Chimie de Clermont-Ferrand, BP 10448, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand (France); CNRS, UMR 6296, ICCF, F-63171 Aubiere (France); Vione, Davide, E-mail: davide.vione@unito.it [Universita degli Studi di Torino, Dipartimento di Chimica, Via P. Giuria 5, 10125 Torino (Italy); Universita degli Studi di Torino, Centro Interdipartimentale NatRisk, Via Leonardo da Vinci 44, 10095 Grugliasco (Italy)

    2012-11-15

    The triplet state of anthraquinone-2-sulphonate (AQ2S) is able to oxidise bromide to Br{sup {center_dot}}/Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}}, with rate constant (2-4) Dot-Operator 10{sup 9} M{sup -1} s{sup -1} that depends on the pH. Similar processes are expected to take place between bromide and the triplet states of naturally occurring chromophoric dissolved organic matter ({sup 3}CDOM*). The brominating agent Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} could thus be formed in natural waters upon oxidation of bromide by both {sup {center_dot}}OH and {sup 3}CDOM*. Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} would be consumed by disproportionation into bromide and bromine, as well as upon reaction with nitrite and most notably with dissolved organic matter (DOM). By using the laser flash photolysis technique, and phenol as model organic molecule, a second-order reaction rate constant of {approx} 3 Dot-Operator 10{sup 2} L (mg C){sup -1} s{sup -1} was measured between Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} and DOM. It was thus possible to model the formation and reactivity of Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} in natural waters, assessing the steady-state [Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}}] Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -13}-10{sup -12} M. It is concluded that bromide oxidation by {sup 3}CDOM* would be significant compared to oxidation by {sup {center_dot}}OH. The {sup 3}CDOM*-mediated process would prevail in DOM-rich and bromide-rich environments, the latter because elevated bromide would completely scavenge {sup {center_dot}}OH. Under such conditions, {sup {center_dot}}OH-assisted formation of Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} would be limited by the formation rate of the hydroxyl radical. In contrast, the formation rate of {sup 3}CDOM* is much higher compared to that of {sup {center_dot}}OH in most surface waters and would provide a large {sup 3}CDOM* reservoir for bromide to react with. A further issue is that nitrite oxidation by Br{sub 2}{sup -{center_dot}} could be an important source of the nitrating agent {sup {center

  7. Occurrence and knowledge about needle stick injury in nursing students

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasuna, J.; Sharma, R.

    2015-01-01

    Needle stick injury (NSI) became a major issue and most of the research focuses on Nurses, Doctors and other health care workers, but at the same time nursing students in clinical duties are at high risk. Studies are available which examined NSI only in Medical students and health care workers. The present study is aimed to measure the occurrence of needle stick injury along with post exposure measures and evaluation of the knowledge regarding needle stick injury among nursing student. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in North-East India in 2013. The study participants comprised of 83 nursing students studying in 4th year B.Sc. (N) and 3rd year General Nursing and Midwifery (GNM). Students were questioned regarding their occurrence to Needle Stick Injury throughout their clinical training and measures taken following the exposure. They were also asked to complete the Knowledge questionnaire on NSI. Results: The study among 83 nursing students included 43 (51.81%) GNM 3rd year and 40 (48.19%) B.Sc. Nursing Students. Out of a total 83 students, 75 (90.36%) were females. The occurrence of NSI during their course was reported by 33 (39.76%) participants. The maximum NSI occurred during first year of course (57.57%). It was found that 18 (54.54%) of NSIs were not reported. Among those exposed, only 5 (15.15%) students had undergone blood investigation and very few students took post exposure measures. It was found that, only 23 (69.69%) students were immunized against Hepatitis B before NSI. Conclusion: The present study indicated a high incidence of needle stick injuries among nursing students with more under-reported cases and subjects were not aware of post exposure measures. It is essential to deal above problems by regular training on real-life procedure at the entry level and reporting system should be more user-friendly platform. (author)

  8. Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    to obtain risk-averse and robust solutions, respectively. Computational results are presented on a real-life case study to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approaches. To compare these different decision-making situations, a simulation approach is used. Furthermore, by several test problems......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

  9. Aquaplaning : Development of a Risk Pond Model from Road Surface Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Nygårdhs, Sara

    2003-01-01

    Aquaplaning accidents are relatively rare, but could have fatal effects. The task of this master’s thesis is to use data from the Laser Road Surface Tester to detect road sections with risk of aquaplaning. A three-dimensional model based on data from road surface measurements is created using MATLAB (version 6.1). From this general geometrical model of the road, a pond model is produced from which the theoretical risk ponds are detected. A risk pond indication table is fur-ther created. The...

  10. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  11. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  12. Relative risk measure suitable for comparison of design alternatives of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferjencik, M.

    1997-01-01

    Accessible reports on risk assessment of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facilities presume that only releases of radioactive substances represent undesired consequences. However, only certain part of the undesired consequences is represented by them. Many other events are connected with safety and are able to cause losses to the operating company. The following two presumptions are pronounced based on this. 1. Any event causing a disturbance of a safety function of the storage facility is an incident event. 2. Any disturbance of a safety function is an undesired consequence. If the facility safety functions are identified and if the severity of their disturbances is quantified, then it is possible to combine consequence severity quantifications and event frequencies into a risk measure. Construction and application of such a risk measure is described in this paper. The measure is shown to be a tool suitable for comparison of interim storage technology design alternatives. (author)

  13. Ability of Different Measures of Adiposity to Identify High Metabolic Risk in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Moreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to evaluate the screening performance of different measures of adiposity: body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR for high metabolic risk in a sample of adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 517 adolescents aged 15–18, from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure. HOMA and TC/HDL-C ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score (MRS was constructed by summing the Z-scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ≥1SD of this score. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC were used. Results. Linear regression analyses showed that, after adjusting for age and pubertal stage, all different measures of adiposity are positively and significantly associated with MRS in both sexes, with exception of WHtR for boys. BMI, WC, and WHtR performed well in detecting high MRS, indicated by areas under the curve (AUC, with slightly greater AUC for BMI than for WC and WHtR in both sexes. Conclusion. All measures of adiposity were significantly associated with metabolic risk factors in a sample of Portuguese adolescents.

  14. Risk Assessment Generated by Usage of ICT and Information Security Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilie TAMAS

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information societies involve the usage of information technology and communications (ITC on a large scale. The dependence on ITC is an unquestionable problem in the present, because we assist to a generality of computers usage in all economic and social life activities. That is why organization information systems became accessible at the global level and there are permanently open for a quick exchange of information between different categories of users located by different geographical nods. The ITC usage involves the existing of some risks that should be known, evaluation and based on these, we must have information systems security measure. We consider that the risk is an indicator very important that must be permanently assess in the usage process of the information system based on ITC. Risk management suppose a permanently evaluation of these problems and also restrain by some practical actions who goes to the decrease of its effects. From the expose point of view, in this paper work it is presented the results of research based on specialty literature and current cases from practical activities, regarding the risks of ITC usage and their diminishing measure. There are distinguished the main factors (threat, vulnerability and impact who affect the information risk and on the other way, diminishing measure of the action to these factors for optimum working of an economic and social organism who use ITC. We consider that through proposed measures we assume safety in design process, implement and usage of the informational systems based on ITC.

  15. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-05-03

    The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

  16. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  17. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  18. The reliability of transabdominal cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population: Comparison with transvaginal measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Cheng-Ran; Chen, Chie-Pein; Wang, Kuo-Gon; Wang, Liang-Kai; Chen, Chen-Yu; Chen, Yi-Yung

    2015-04-01

    To determine the correlation between transabdominal (TA) and transvaginal (TV) cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population in Taiwan. Women with a singleton pregnancy between 20 weeks and 24 weeks of gestation underwent postvoid TA and TV cervical length measurements. Differences between the measurements obtained using the two methods were evaluated. Two hundred and five women agreed to participate in the study. Paired TA and TV measurements were obtained in 174 women. The mean TA cervical length was 36.0 ± 4.9 mm and the mean TV cervical length was 37.6 ± 5.4 mm. The mean TA cervical length was shorter than the mean TV cervical length by 1.6 mm. The 5(th) percentile of TA and TV cervical length was 29 mm and 29.1 mm, respectively. The discrepancies between the two methods were not significantly correlated with maternal body mass index (BMI). All women with TV cervical length women in the present study, and the TA cervical length was closely correlated with the TV cervical length. The use of TA ultrasound could be an effective initial tool for cervical length screening in low-risk pregnant women. TA cervical length TV ultrasound. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Three Risk Tolerance Measures: Turkey and the United States Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ruiz-Manjivar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An individual’s attitude toward financial risk tolerance (FRT is an important preference that influences financial decision-making under uncertainty. FRT involves inter-temporal resource allocation. Accurate and reliable measures of FRT are essential for professionals advising consumers as well as researchers who are trying to predict, and understand consumer behavior. This study explores cross-cultural risk tolerance by comparing random samples from Turkey, and the United States. Similar and distinctive attitudes and patterns regarding FRT are identified. Three subjective measures of FRT are employed in this study: Grable and Lytton (1999, Hanna, Gutter and Fan’s (2001 improved version of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997, and the Survey of Consumer Finance’s item on risk tolerance. Data was collected via an online survey that used the above-mentioned FRT measures. There were two versions: the original American English version, and a culturally translated Turkish version. To explore the correlation of FRT among measures, we use bivariate analysis by individually employing Pearson Chi-square test of independence, and cross tabulations analysis to each sample. In addition, by pooling both samples, we conduct cumulative logistic regression. We delineate FRT differences and consistencies between countries across subjective financial risk tolerance measures.

  20. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage

  1. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

  2. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Lopez-Guzman

    Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  3. Using alternative or direct anthropometric measurements to assess risk for malnutrition in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorini, Chiara; Collini, Francesca; Castagnoli, Mariangela; Di Bari, Mauro; Cavallini, Maria Chiara; Zaffarana, Nicoletta; Pepe, Pasquale; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Vannacci, Alfredo; Bonaccorsi, Guglielmo

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) to assess the applicability of alternative versus direct anthropometric measurements for evaluating the risk for malnutrition in older individuals living in nursing homes (NHs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 67 NHs in Tuscany, Italy. We measured the weight, standing height (SH), knee height (KH), ulna length (UL), and middle-upper-arm circumference of 641 NH residents. Correlations between the different methods for calculating body mass index (BMI; using direct or alternative measurements) were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman method; agreement in the allocation of participants to the same risk category was assessed by squared weighted kappa statistic and indicators of internal relative validity. The intraclass correlation coefficient for BMI calculated using KH was 0.839 (0.815-0.861), whereas those calculated by UL were 0.890 (0.872-0.905). The limits of agreement were ±6.13 kg/m(2) using KH and ±4.66 kg/m(2) using UL. For BMI calculated using SH, 79.9% of the patients were at low risk, 8.1% at medium risk, and 12.2% at high risk for malnutrition. The agreement between this classification and that obtained using BMI calculated by alternative measurements was "fair-good." When it is not possible to determine risk category by using SH, we suggest using the alternative measurements (primarily UL, due to its highest sensitivity) to predict the height and to compare these evaluations with those obtained by using middle-upper-arm-circumference to predict the BMI. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  5. Organic indoor air pollutants: occurrence, measurement, evaluation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Salthammer, Tunga; Uhde, Erik

    2009-01-01

    ... hand, organic chemical pollutants emitted from materials and appliances can adversely affect human health. People in developed countries spend more than 90% of their time indoors. In the light of this fact, the cleanliness of occupied spaces such as buildings, houses, and transportation systems becomes very important. In contemporary so...

  6. Group differences in risk across three domains using an expanded measure of sexual orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loosier, Penny S; Dittus, Patricia J

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to highlight associations between sexual orientation and risk outcomes in late adolescence and early adulthood using an expanded measure of sexual orientation. Recent data indicate higher levels of risk behavior in a newly identified population, mostly heterosexuals, as compared to heterosexuals. Comparisons among groups using an expanded measure of sexual orientation such as this, however, often do not include all possible groups or may restrict comparisons between groups. Data were derived from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health); participants identified as heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, mostly gay, or gay. Main risk outcomes were parental mistreatment, home displacement, thoughts of suicide, depressive symptoms, frequency of drinking, and delinquency. A priori planned comparisons examined differences between: (a) heterosexual vs. mostly heterosexual, (b) gay vs. mostly gay, (c) mostly heterosexual vs. bisexual, (d) mostly gay vs. bisexual, (e) mostly heterosexual vs. mostly gay, (f) heterosexual vs. gay, (g) heterosexual vs. bisexual, and (h) gay vs. bisexual. Mostly heterosexual youth were at significantly greater risk than heterosexual youth on all outcomes but did not differ from bisexual or mostly gay youth. Heterosexuals were at lower risk as compared to mostly heterosexuals and bisexuals. This study provides further evidence of differential risk associations for sexual minorities.

  7. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  8. Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, A.; Bots, M.L.; Rutten, F.H.; den Ruijter, H.M.; Numans, M.E.; Vaartjes, I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim: To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a

  9. A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

  10. A measure of fall risk behaviors and perceptions among community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Hon Keung; Carter, Rickey E

    2006-01-01

    Relatively little is known about the interaction between behavioral and environmental circumstances associated with falls among community-dwelling older adults. This study is designed to develop an instrument that measures community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Eighty-seven community-dwelling older adults aged 60 or above (mean +/- SD = 76 +/- 7.9), who had experienced at least one fall in the past 12 months, completed a questionnaire dealing with frequency of their participation in fall risk behaviors, their perceptions of these behaviors, and their fall history. Data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. A 20-item instrument consisting of three constructs was presented as the Fall Risk Behaviors and Perceptions Scale (FRB&PS). Two of the three constructs of the instrument were de-stabilizers and non-supports, both of which measure participation in fall risk behaviors; the third was perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Internal consistency coefficient of the FRB&PS is 0.733 with a root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) score of 0.075, which indicates an adequate model fit. Results from the stepwise regression analyses indicated that adults aged 75 and above (the old-old) participated less frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.025), and had more knowledge about fall risks as measured by a higher perception score (p = 0.025) than those aged 60 to 75 (the young-old). Older men tended to participate more frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.020) than older women; in addition, those older adults who are more mobile (p = 0.002) also participated more frequently in fall risk behaviors than those who are less mobile. Preliminary findings indicate that the pilot FRB&PS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Additional psychometric validation of the FRB&PS on predicting the likelihood of falls is

  11. The Relationship between Market and Accounting Determined Risk Measures: Reviewing and Updating the Beaver, Kettler, Scholes (1970) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvela, Michael; Kozyra, James; Potter, Carla

    2009-01-01

    The association between market-determined risk measures and accounting-determined risk measures was originally explored in the 1970s by Beaver, Kettler, and Scholes (BKS). The results of the BKS (1970) study suggest that accounting information is usefulness in assessing firm specific risk. Since BKS, there have been few studies conducted to…

  12. Risco climático para ocorrência de doenças fúngicas da videira no Sul e Sudeste do Brasil Climatic risk for the occurrence of grapevine fungal diseases in South and Southeast Br

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Satie Hayashi Shimano

    2013-09-01

    different strategies for the control of fungal diseases. Based on that, the aim of this study was to determine climatic risk in the occurrence of fungal diseases in different productive regions of the South and Southeast of Brazil, using a prediction model for spraying, based on rainfall occurrence. In order to do this, daily rainfall data from the regions of Manga (MG, Jales (SP, Jundiaí (SP, São Miguel Arcanjo (SP, Marialva (PR and Caxias do Sul (RS, taken from a thirty-year time series were used. The number of sprays was determined using the calendar (NScalendar and rainfall (NSrainfall sytems, as a function of the duration of every harvest cycle for each location, as related to the pruning periods. In Caxias do Sul, where rainfall is more abundant and better distributed, the RC [= (NSrainfall / NScalendar*100], varied from 50 to 55% for pruning dates from August to September, whereas in the Manga region, the RC ranged from 1% for pruning carried out in May to 24% for pruning in February. In the remaining regions, the RC values were between 16 and 56%, demonstrating that the risk of occurrence of these diseases varies with the weather, and that the monitoring of weather conditions can help in a rational recommendation of spraying frequency in the control of fungal diseases in the grapevine Vitis labrusca.

  13. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Richmond, Sarah A.; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Doyle-Baker, Patricia K.; Macpherson, Alison; Emery, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n = 1,040) at the ages of 11?15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2) and WC (cm) were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese) were created using validated internati...

  14. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX? to improve identification of high-risk fallers

    OpenAIRE

    Najafi, David A.; Dahlberg, Leif E.; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-01-01

    Background The FRAX? algorithm quantifies a patient?s 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual?s balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX? algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX? algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that ...

  15. Measuring the default risk of sovereign debt from the perspective of network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Hongwei; Ho, Hwai-Chung

    2013-05-01

    Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in the fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according to the debt-credit relations instead of using the conventional methodology to measure the default risk. Based on the model, a risk index is examined using the quarterly report of consolidated foreign claims from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and debt/GDP ratios among these reporting countries. The empirical results show that this index can help the regulators and practitioners not only to determine the status of interconnectivity but also to point out the degree of the sovereign debt default risk. Our approach sheds new light on the investigation of quantifying the systemic risk.

  16. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    -quartile dense breast volume had a BCSC 5-year risk of 2.5%, whereas women with dense breasts and first-quartile dense breast volume had a 5-year risk ≤ 1.8%. Risk models with automated dense breast volume combined with BI-RADS breast density may better identify women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk than risk models with either measure alone.

  17. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1{sup st} and 2{sup nd} terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1{sup st} term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2{sup nd} term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk.

  18. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1 st and 2 nd terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1 st term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2 nd term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk

  19. Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

  20. Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Dunning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years. Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%. However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032 if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009 and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006— an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  1. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2018-05-09

    Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  3. Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

    2016-02-01

    High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea

  4. Occurrence, behavior and effects of nanoparticles in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Bernd; Bucheli, Thomas D.

    2007-01-01

    The increasing use of engineered nanoparticles (NP) in industrial and household applications will very likely lead to the release of such materials into the environment. Assessing the risks of these NP in the environment requires an understanding of their mobility, reactivity, ecotoxicity and persistency. This review presents an overview of the classes of NP relevant to the environment and summarizes their formation, emission, occurrence and fate in the environment. The engineered NP are thereby compared to natural products such as soot and organic colloids. To date only few quantitative analytical techniques for measuring NP in natural systems are available, which results in a serious lack of information about their occurrence in the environment. Results from ecotoxicological studies show that certain NP have effects on organisms under environmental conditions, though mostly at elevated concentrations. The next step towards an assessment of the risks of NP in the environment should therefore be to estimate the exposure to the different NP. It is also important to notice that most NP in technical applications are functionalized and therefore studies using pristine NP may not be relevant for assessing the behavior of the NP actually used. - The behavior and the effects of natural and engineered nanoparticles in the environment are reviewed

  5. Diabetes mellitus: fatores de risco, ocorrência e cuidados entre trabalhadores de enfermagem Diabetes mellitus: factores de riesgo, ocurrencia y cuidados entre trabajadores de enfermería Diabetes mellitus: occurrence of risk factors and care among nursing workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darlene Mara dos Santos Tavares

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Identificar a ocorrência de Diabetes Mellitus (DM, os fatores de risco, o estresse e o cuidado com a saúde realizado pelos trabalhadores de enfermagem diabéticos. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo realizado com 418 profissionais de enfermagem de um hospital universitário. Os dados foram coletados por meio de instrumento semiestruturado e analisado, utilizando-se a distribuição de freqüência, teste qui-quadrado (pOBJETIVO: Identificar la ocurrencia de Diabetes Mellitus (DM, los factores de riesgo, el estrés y el cuidado con la salud realizado por los trabajadores de enfermería que son diabéticos. MÉTODOS: Estudio descriptivo realizado con 418 profesionales de enfermería de un hospital universitario. Los datos fueron recolectados - por medio de un instrumento semi-estructurado - y analizados, utilizando la distribución de frecuencias, prueba chi-cuadrado (pOBJECTIVE: To identify the occurrence of Diabetes Mellitus (DM, risk factors, stress and health-care activities performed by diabetic nursing workers. METHODS: This is a descriptive study with 418 professional nurses, working at a university hospital. Data were collected through a semi-structured instrument and were analyzed using the frequency distribution, the chi-square test (p <0.05 and the odds ratio. RESULTS: Most of the professionals were female and had between 20 and 30 years of age. All risk factors for DM were present, including the factors that can be modified. It was found a larger proportion of diabetic workers that had: overweight; arterial hypertension and capillary blood glucose altered, when compared to those without the disease. It was not found an increased likelihood of developing DM among nursing workers who reported stress. The workers with DM did not attend to the monthly follow up(69.2%; they were treated in private services (70%; and, they did not participate in educational activities (92.3%. CONCLUSION: It is necessary to develop health actions aimed

  6. Measuring attitudes towards nuclear and technological risks (computer programs in SPSS language)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonin, T.V. Jr.

    1981-04-01

    A number of methodologies have been developed for measuring public attitudes towards nuclear and other technological risks. The Fishbein model, as modified by the IAEA Risk Assessment group, and which was found to be applicable for Philippine public attitude measurements, is briefly explained together with two other models which are utilized for comparative correlations. A step by step guide on the procedures involved and the calculations required in measuring and analyzing attitude using these models is likewise described, with special emphasis on the computer processing aspect. The use of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) in the analysis is also described and a number of computer programs in SPSS for the various statistical calculations required in the analysis is presented. (author)

  7. Evaluation of fetal anthropometric measures to predict the risk for shoulder dystocia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, T; Schmidt, M; Kurmanavicius, J; Zimmermann, R; Schäffer, L

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the quality of anthropometric measures to improve the prediction of shoulder dystocia by combining different sonographic biometric parameters. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12,794 vaginal deliveries with complete sonographic biometry data obtained within 7 days before delivery. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves of various combinations of the biometric parameters, namely, biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), head circumference, abdominal diameter (AD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length were analyzed. The influences of independent risk factors were calculated and their combination used in a predictive model. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 1.14%. Different combinations of sonographic parameters showed comparable ROC curves without advantage for a particular combination. The difference between AD and BPD (AD - BPD) (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.704) revealed a significant increase in risk (odds ratio (OR) 7.6 (95% CI 4.2-13.9), sensitivity 8.2%, specificity 98.8%) at a suggested cut-off ≥ 2.6 cm. However, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (7.5%). The AC as a single parameter (AUC = 0.732) with a cut-off ≥ 35 cm performed worse (OR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5), PPV 2.6%). BPD/OFD (a surrogate for fetal cranial shape) was not significantly different between those with and those without shoulder dystocia. The combination of estimated fetal weight, maternal diabetes, gender and AD - BPD provided a reasonable estimate of the individual risk. Sonographic fetal anthropometric measures appear not to be a useful tool to screen for the risk of shoulder dystocia due to a low PPV. However, AD - BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor. While risk stratification including different known risk factors may aid in counseling, shoulder dystocia cannot effectively be predicted. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  9. Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

    2015-09-01

    Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  10. Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Karina Marques Salge

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

  11. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  12. Efficacy of anthropometric measures for identifying cardiovascular disease risk in adolescents: review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenauer, Michael; Wheatley, Sean D; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Duncan, Michael J; Cobayashi, Fernanda; Berg, Gabriela; Musso, Carla; Graffigna, Mabel; Soutelo, Jimena; Bovet, Pascal; Kollias, Anastasios; Stergiou, George S; Grammatikos, Evangelos; Griffiths, Claire; Ingle, Lee; Jung, Christian

    2018-04-12

    To compare the ability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk levels in adolescents. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed after a database search for relevant literature (Cochrane, Centre for Review and Dissemination, PubMed, British Nursing Index, CINAHL, BIOSIS citation index, ChildData, metaRegister). 117 records representing 96 studies with 994,595 participants were included in the systematic review, 14 of which (13 studies, n=14,610) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The results of the meta-analysis showed that BMI was a strong indicator of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and insulin; but not total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein or glucose. Few studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis considering WC or WHtR (n≤2). The narrative synthesis found measures of central adiposity to be consistently valid indicators of the same risk factors as BMI. BMI was an indicator of CVD risk. WC and WHtR were efficacious for indicating the same risk factors BMI performed strongly for, though there was insufficient evidence to judge the relative strength of each measure possibly due to heterogeneity in the methods for measuring and classifying WC.

  13. Improving risk assessments for manufactured gas plant soils by measuring PAH availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroo, Hans F; Nakles, David V; Kreitinger, Joseph P; Loehr, Raymond C; Hawthorne, Steven B; Luthy, Richard G; Holman, Hoi-Ying; LaPierre, Adrienne

    2005-07-01

    Remediation of soils at oil-gas manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites is driven primarily by the human health risks posed by the carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), that are associated with lampblack residues. Although PAHs on lampblack are tightly sorbed, risk assessments do not account for this reduced availability. A multi-investigator study of 7 oil-gas MGP site soil samples demonstrated that the dermal and ingestion absorption factors are far lower than current default assumptions used in risk assessments. Using these sample-specific absorption factors in standard risk assessment equations increased risk-based cleanup levels by a factor of 72 on average (with a range from 23 to 142 times the default level). The rapidly released fraction of the BaP in each sample, as measured by supercritical fluid extraction, was closely correlated (r2 = 0.96) to these calculated cleanup levels. The weight of evidence developed during this research indicates that the risks posed by PAHs on lampblack are far less than assumed when using default absorption factors and that a tiered evaluation protocol employing chemical analyses, chemical release data, and in vitro bioassays can be used to establish more realistic site-specific criteria.

  14. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  15. Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

    2018-05-18

    Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Benjamin M.; Takami, Marcelo; Rocha, Jadson M. C.; Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Souza, Sergio R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Recent literature has focused on the study of systemic risk in complex networks. It is clear now, after the crisis of 2008, that the aggregate behavior of the interaction among agents is not straightforward and it is very difficult to predict. Contributing to this debate, this paper shows that the directed clustering coefficient may be used as a measure of systemic risk in complex networks. Furthermore, using data from the Brazilian interbank network, we show that the directed clustering coefficient is negatively correlated with domestic interest rates.

  17. The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

    2016-10-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative

  18. Lower Lean Mass Measured by Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) is Not Associated with Increased Risk of Hip Fracture in Women: The Framingham Osteoporosis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Robert R; Kiel, Douglas P; Berry, Sarah D; Broe, Kerry E; Zhang, Xiaochun; Cupples, L Adrienne; Hannan, Marian T

    2018-01-05

    Although muscle mass influences strength in older adults, it is unclear whether low lean mass measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is an independent risk factor for hip fracture. Our objective was to determine the association between DXA lean mass and incident hip fracture risk among 1978 women aged 50 years and older participating in the Framingham Study Original and Offspring cohorts. Leg and total body lean mass (kg) were assessed from whole-body DXA scans collected in 1992-2001. Hip fracture follow-up extended from DXA assessment to the occurrence of fracture, death, drop-out, or end of follow-up in 2007. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) estimating the relative risk of hip fracture associated with a 1-kg increase in baseline lean mass. Mean age was 66 years (range 50-93). Over a median of 8 years of follow-up, 99 hip fractures occurred. In models adjusted for age, height, study cohort, and percent total body fat, neither leg (HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.94, 1.31) nor total body (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.99, 1.13) lean mass were associated with hip fracture. After further adjustment for femoral neck bone mineral density, leg lean mass results were similar (HR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93, 1.30). In contrast, 1 kg greater total body lean mass was associated with 9% higher hip fracture risk (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.02, 1.18). Our findings suggest that in women, lower lean mass measured by DXA is not associated with increased risk of hip fracture.

  19. Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

  20. Temporal patterns of lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - consequences to remediation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2004-01-01

    Studies of uranium miners conducted since the late 1960s demonstrated that the risk depends on cumulated exposure in terms of working level months (WLM) integrating both duration of exposure and concentration of radon. It has been also demonstrated that the risk from radon decreases with time since exposure. The present analysis of temporal changes of relative risk is based on a model where the total individual exposure is partitioned into components in dependence on time. Exposure to radon is studied in a cohort of 9411 Czech uranium miners with 766 cases of lung cancer and in a residential study of 11 803 inhabitants exposed to radon in houses with 218 cases. In addition, temporal patterns of the risk from smoking are analyzed in a case-control study of patients from a major Prague hospital including 566 cases. For both carcinogens, the relative risk decreases with time since exposure. The risk from exposures before 20-34 years is 36% and 34% in comparison to period 5-19 for smoking and radon, respectively. The effect of exposures from more distant periods 35-49 is only 5% for smoking and 14% for radon in comparison to 5-19 years. This substantial decrease of relative risk with time may contribute to a better evaluation of remediation measures taken in houses and in the cost effectiveness of remediation. Combined effect of smoking and radon is studied by a nested case-control approach including 434 cases and 962 controls. Analyses of the joint effects of smoking and radon, conducted in the occupational and the residential studies, suggest a sub-multiplicative interaction. The relative risk from radon among non-smokers is higher by a factor of 2-3 in comparison to smokers, suggesting different patterns of lung deposition and clearance among smokers and non-smokers. (author)