Occurrence of geogenic contaminants in private wells from a crystalline bedrock aquifer in western Quebec, Canada: Geochemical sources and health risks

Science.gov (United States)

Bondu, Raphaël; Cloutier, Vincent; Rosa, Eric

2018-04-01

Nineteen private wells were investigated in order to evaluate the groundwater quality and the issues associated with well water use in a fractured metasedimentary aquifer of the Canadian Shield, in western Quebec (Canada). Groundwater sampling and analysis reveal that the quality of well water is both a potential aesthetic and health concern for the residents. Aesthetic problems are mainly related to the high levels of hardness and dissolved iron and manganese. Potential health risks are associated with the occurrence of brackish groundwater, high manganese concentrations, and arsenic concentrations exceeding the Canadian guideline value of 10 μg/l. Brackish groundwater is suspected to be derived from the mixing of fresh groundwaters with deep calcium-sodium-chloride brines of the Canadian Shield. The occurrences of iron, manganese and arsenic, primarily derived from the natural weathering of bedrock, are highly dependent on the geochemical conditions in groundwater, particularly the redox potential. Arsenic occurs mainly as arsenite (As(III)) and is thought to be released by the dissolution of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides under reducing conditions. Information obtained from well owners indicates that most households use ion exchange water softeners to minimize aesthetic problems of excessive hardness and dissolved iron and manganese concentrations. Homeowners generally take protective measures to reduce their exposure to arsenic when they are aware of the contamination. The exposure to arsenic and manganese may pose health risks for residents that do not take protective measures. The quality of well water is of paramount importance for human health in rural areas. Information on the contaminant sources and individual mitigation measures is essential to assess the health risks associated with groundwater consumption and to ensure the protection of public health.

[Risk of thyroid cancer occurrence by nuclear disasters and its countermeasures].

Science.gov (United States)

Kumagai, Atsushi; Yamashita, Shunichi

2012-11-01

Looking back at the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, the importance of the epidemiological study in human health risk management and the comprehensive radiation protection standard need to be emphasized; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Health Care Project (Fukushima Health Management Survey Project)" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. In this issue, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence by nuclear disasters, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite the difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures.

Reduced occurrence of early atopic dermatitis because of immunoactive prebiotics among low-atopy-risk infants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grueber, Christoph; van Stuijvenberg, Margriet; Mosca, Fabio; Moro, Guido; Chirico, Gaetano; Braegger, Christian P.; Riedler, Josef; Boehm, Guenther; Wahn, Ulrich

2010-01-01

Background: Most infants developing atopic dermatitis have a low risk for atopy. Primary prevention of atopic dermatitis is difficult. Objective: To assess the effect of supplementation of an infant and follow-on formula with prebiotic and immunoactive oligosaccharides on the occurrence of atopic

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanderson Bucker Moraes

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2 focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Characteristics of cloud occurrence using ceilometer measurements and its relationship to precipitation over Seoul

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sanghee; Hwang, Seung-On; Kim, Jhoon; Ahn, Myoung-Hwan

2018-03-01

Clouds are an important component of the atmosphere that affects both climate and weather, however, their contributions can be very difficult to determine. Ceilometer measurements can provide high resolution information on atmospheric conditions such as cloud base height (CBH) and vertical frequency of cloud occurrence (CVF). This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of CBH and CVF derived using Vaisala CL51 ceilometers at two urban stations in Seoul, Korea, during a three-year period from January 2014 to December 2016. The average frequency of cloud occurrence detected by the ceilometers is 54.3%. It is found that the CL51 is better able to capture CBH as compared to another ceilometer CL31 at a nearby meteorological station because it could detect high clouds more accurately. Frequency distributions for CBH up to 13,000 m providing detailed vertical features with 500-m interval show 55% of CBHs below 2 km for aggregated CBHs. A bimodal frequency distribution was observed for three-layers CBHs. A monthly variation of CVF reveals that frequency concentration of lower clouds is found in summer and winter, and higher clouds more often detected in spring and autumn. Monthly distribution features of cloud occurrence and precipitation are depending on seasons and it might be easy to define their relationship due to higher degree of variability of precipitation than cloud occurrence. However, a fluctuation of cloud occurrence frequency in summer is similar to precipitation in trend, whereas clouds in winter are relatively frequent but precipitation is not accompanied. In addition, recent decrease of summer precipitation could be mostly explained by a decrease of cloud occurrence. Anomalous precipitation recorded sometimes is considerably related to corresponding cloud occurrence. The diurnal and daily variations of CBH and CVF from ceilometer observations and the analysis of microwave radiometer measurements for two typical cloudiness cases are also reviewed

Early-life risk factors for occurrence of atopic dermatitis during the first year.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugiyama, Mikio; Arakawa, Hirokazu; Ozawa, Kiyoshi; Mizuno, Takahisa; Mochizuki, Hiroyuki; Tokuyama, Kenichi; Morikawa, Akihiro

2007-03-01

In a prospective birth cohort study, we sought to identify perinatal predictors of the occurrence of atopic dermatitis in the first year of life. Associations of family history, infection during pregnancy, cord blood cytokine concentrations, and skin function parameters with atopic dermatitis were analyzed. Stratum corneum hydration was measured with an impedance meter until 5 days after delivery and again at 1 month. Complete data were obtained for 213 infants, including 27 diagnosed by a physician as having atopic dermatitis during their first year and 26 diagnosed as having infantile eczema during their first month. The risk of atopic dermatitis during the first year of life was related to maternal atopic dermatitis, lower concentrations of macrophage inflammatory protein-1beta in cord blood, and greater skin moisture in the surface and stratum corneum of the forehead and cheek at 1 month of age but not to viral or bacterial infection during pregnancy or breastfeeding. Paternal hay fever was associated negatively with the development of atopic dermatitis. High concentrations of interleukin-5, interleukin-17, and macrophage chemotactic protein-1 and only surface moisture in the cheek were associated with greater risk of infantile eczema in the first month. The association of atopic dermatitis in infancy with reduced neonatal macrophage inflammatory protein-1beta levels suggests a link with immature immune responses at birth. Stratum corneum barrier disruption in atopic dermatitis may involve impairment of cutaneous adaptation to extrauterine life. The majority of risk factors had different effects on infant eczema and atopic dermatitis, indicating different causes.

Occurrence, distribution and risk of organophosphate esters in urban road dust in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhui; Shi, Yali; Gao, Lihong; Wu, Chuandong; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

2018-06-06

As a major group of plasticizers and flame-retardants, organophosphate esters (OPEs) have attracted particular attention due to their wide occurrence and potential impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the present study, the occurrence and distribution of 14 OPEs, including seven Alkyl-OPEs, three Cl-OPEs, and four Aryl-OPEs, were investigated in 65 road dust samples collected from November to December 2014 in Beijing, China. Cl-OPEs were the predominant compounds in the road dust samples, with the median concentration of 646 μg/kg, followed by the Alkyl-OPEs (median 135 μg/kg) and Aryl-OPEs (median 129 μg/kg). Tris(2-chloro-1-methylethyl) phosphate (TCPP) was the most abundant OPE with the median concentration of 384 μg/kg. In addition, OPEs levels showed significant difference (p road with heavy traffic and high population density, indicating that the traffic and population were important factors for this distribution pattern. It was further supported by the analysis of OPEs in roadside soil and indoor dust in the vicinity of road dust sample sites. Finally, the average daily dose (ADD) for OPEs via inhalation, dermal absorption, and ingestion was calculated to evaluate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to residents exposed to OPEs in the road dust. Risk assessment revealed that the risk originating from exposure to OPEs of road dust is currently low in Beijing, China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental occurrence and ecological risk assessment of organic UV filters in marine organisms from Hong Kong coastal waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Sang, Ziye; Leung, Kelvin Sze-Yin

2016-10-01

Organic UV filters, now considered to be emerging contaminants in aquatic ecosystems, are being intensively tracked in environmental waters worldwide. However, their environmental fate and impact of these contaminants on marine organisms remains largely unknown, especially in Asia. This work elucidates the occurrence and the ecological risks of seven UV filters detected in farmed fish, wild mussels and some other wild organisms collected from local mariculture farms in Hong Kong. For all of the organisms, ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate (EHMC) and octyl dimethyl p-aminobenzoic acid (OD-PABA) were the predominant contaminants with the highest concentrations up to 51.3 and 24.1ng/g (dw), respectively; lower levels were found for benzophenone-8 (BP-8), octocrylene (OC) and benzophenone-3 (BP-3) from measured concentrations of all targets were clearly higher in mussels than in fish. Spatial distribution of studied UV filters indicated a positive correlation between their measured concentrations and the anthropogenic activities responsible for their direct emission. The ecological risk assessment specific to the marine aquatic environment was carried out. The risk quotient (RQ) values of EHMC and BP-3 were calculated as 3.29 and 2.60, respectively, indicating these two UV filters may pose significant risks to the marine aquatic environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

2006-02-07

In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model--effort, rewards and ERI--are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational-level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index > or =25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously > or =3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational efforts relative to rewards may be

The risks of measuring risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, G.G.

1982-01-01

The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

Pesticides in the Ebro River basin: Occurrence and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ccanccapa, Alexander; Masiá, Ana; Navarro-Ortega, Alícia; Picó, Yolanda; Barceló, Damià

2016-01-01

In this study, 50 pesticides were analyzed in the Ebro River basin in 2010 and 2011 to assess their impact in water, sediment and biota. A special emphasis was placed on the potential effects of both, individual pesticides and their mixtures, in three trophic levels (algae, daphnia and fish) using Risk Quotients (RQs) and Toxic Units (TUs) for water and sediments. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and carbendazim were the most frequent in water (95, 95 and 70% of the samples, respectively). Imazalil (409.73 ng/L) and diuron (150 ng/L) were at the highest concentrations. Sediment and biota were less contaminated. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and diclofenthion were the most frequent in sediments (82, 45 and 21% of the samples, respectively). The only pesticide detected in biota was chlorpyrifos (up to 840.2 ng g"−"1). Ecotoxicological risk assessment through RQs showed that organophosphorus and azol presented high risk for algae; organophosphorus, benzimidazoles, carbamates, juvenile hormone mimic and other pesticides for daphnia, and organophosphorus, azol and juvenile hormone mimics for fish. The sum TU_s_i_t_e for water and sediments showed values < 1 for the three bioassays. In both matrices, daphnia and fish were more sensitive to the mixture of pesticide residues present. - Highlights: • Wide occurrence of pesticides in water and in lesser extent in sediment and biota. • Ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment in the Ebro river and its tributaries. • Sum TU_s_i_t_e pointed out daphnia as more sensitive to the pesticide residue mixture. • Chronic toxicity test (RQ) showed risk in three trophic level (algae, daphnia and fish). - Evidence of water, sediment and biota contamination by a cocktail of pesticide residues especially hazardous for Daphnia.

A novel method for morphological pleomorphism and heterogeneity quantitative measurement: Named cell feature level co-occurrence matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Akira; Numata, Yasushi; Hamada, Takuya; Horisawa, Tomoyoshi; Cosatto, Eric; Graf, Hans-Peter; Kuroda, Masahiko; Yamamoto, Yoichiro

2016-01-01

Recent developments in molecular pathology and genetic/epigenetic analysis of cancer tissue have resulted in a marked increase in objective and measurable data. In comparison, the traditional morphological analysis approach to pathology diagnosis, which can connect these molecular data and clinical diagnosis, is still mostly subjective. Even though the advent and popularization of digital pathology has provided a boost to computer-aided diagnosis, some important pathological concepts still remain largely non-quantitative and their associated data measurements depend on the pathologist's sense and experience. Such features include pleomorphism and heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose a method for the objective measurement of pleomorphism and heterogeneity, using the cell-level co-occurrence matrix. Our method is based on the widely used Gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), where relations between neighboring pixel intensity levels are captured into a co-occurrence matrix, followed by the application of analysis functions such as Haralick features. In the pathological tissue image, through image processing techniques, each nucleus can be measured and each nucleus has its own measureable features like nucleus size, roundness, contour length, intra-nucleus texture data (GLCM is one of the methods). In GLCM each nucleus in the tissue image corresponds to one pixel. In this approach the most important point is how to define the neighborhood of each nucleus. We define three types of neighborhoods of a nucleus, then create the co-occurrence matrix and apply Haralick feature functions. In each image pleomorphism and heterogeneity are then determined quantitatively. For our method, one pixel corresponds to one nucleus feature, and we therefore named our method Cell Feature Level Co-occurrence Matrix (CFLCM). We tested this method for several nucleus features. CFLCM is showed as a useful quantitative method for pleomorphism and heterogeneity on histopathological image

Occurrence, Seasonal Variation and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in Qingcaosha Reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yue Jiang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Qingcaosha Reservoir is an important drinking water source in Shanghai. The occurrence of five groups of antibiotics was investigated in the surface water of this reservoir over a one-year period. Seventeen antibiotics were selected in this study based on their significant usage in China. Of these antibiotics, 16 were detected, while oxytetracycline was not detected in any sampling site. The detected frequency of tylosin was only 47.92% while the other 15 antibiotics were above 81.25%. The dominant antibiotic was different in four seasons: norfloxacin was dominant in spring, and penicillinV was dominant in summer, autumn and winter, with medium concentrations of 124.10 ng/L, 89.91 ng/L, 180.28 ng/L, and 216.43 ng/L, respectively. The concentrations and detection frequencies of antibiotics were notably higher in winter than in other seasons, demonstrating that low temperature and low flow may result in the persistence of antibiotics in the aquatic environment. Risk assessment suggested that norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, penicillinV, and doxycycline in the surface water presented high ecological risks.

Occurrence, distribution and ecological risk assessment of multiple classes of UV filters in surface waters from different countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Wai, Tak-Cheung; Yamashita, Nobuyoshi; Taniyasu, Sachi; Liu, Wenhua; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

2014-12-15

Organic UV filters are common ingredients of personal care products (PCPs), but little is known about their distribution in and potential impacts to the marine environment. This study reports the occurrence and risk assessment of twelve widely used organic UV filters in surface water collected in eight cities in four countries (China, the United States, Japan, and Thailand) and the North American Arctic. The number of compounds detected, Hong Kong (12), Tokyo (9), Bangkok (9), New York (8), Los Angeles (8), Arctic (6), Shantou (5) and Chaozhou (5), generally increased with population density. Median concentrations of all detectable UV filters were ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate (EHMC) were more likely to pose a risk to fishes and also posed high risk of bleaching in hard corals in aquatic recreational areas in Hong Kong. This study is the first to report the occurrence of organic UV filters in the Arctic and provides a wider assessment of their potential negative impacts in the marine environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

Science.gov (United States)

Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

2006-01-01

Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational

Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elovainio Marko

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high

Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunesen, Eva Rytter

This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

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Willian Bucker Moraes

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T and air relative humidity (RH: i high risk (18 90%; ii medium risk (18 25 ºC and RH > 90%; and iii low risk (T 25 ºC and RH < 90%. Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3 was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the

Co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases in adolescents: Prevalence and associated factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Silva Dias de OLIVEIRA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To examine the prevalence of the behavioral risk factors – both isolated and clustered – for chronic diseases, among adolescents. Additionally, its association with various social and demographic variables was estimated. Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 1,039 high school students, from public and private schools, elected for convenience, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, as well as crude and adjusted ordinal logistic regression were used to assess the association between the variables. Results The most frequently observed risk factors were sedentary behavior (68.8%, alcohol consumption (36.8%, and overweight (26.8%. The clustering of risk factors was observed in 67.5% of the students. Being a girl (OR=1.28; 95%CI=1.01–1.63, Caucasian (OR=1.35; 95%CI=1.06–1.72 or private school student (OR=1.46; 95%CI=1.12–1.88 increased the chance of the clustering of risk factors. The co-occurrence of risk factors was predominantly observed in the case of smoking (OR=4.94; 95%CI=1.46–16.75, alcohol consumption (OR=1.43; 95%CI=1.09–1.88, high consumption of ultra-processed foods (OR=1.57; 95%CI=1.19–2.07, and sedentary behavior (OR=1.40; 95%CI=1.07–1.82. Conclusion The co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors was observed to be higher among girls, Caucasian adolescents, and private school students, as well as, among smokers, alcohol users and adolescents with sedentary habits and a high consumption of ultra-processed foods.

The 'time of occurrence' in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivas, M.D.; Vijayalakshmi, R.

1981-01-01

Apart from serving as a parameter in describing the evolution of a system, time appears also as an observable property of a system in experiments where one measures 'the time of occurrence' of an event associated with the system. However, while the observables normally encountered in quantum theory (and characterized by self-adjoint operators or projection-valued measures) correspond to instantaneous measurements, a time of occurrence measurement involves continuous observations being performed on the system to monitor when the event occurs. It is argued that a time of occurrence observable should be represented by a positive-operator-valued measure on the interval over which the experiment is carried out. It is shown that while the requirement of time-translation invariance and the spectral condition rule out the possibility of a self-adjoint time operator (Pauli's theorem), they do allow for time of occurrence observables to be represented by suitable positive-operator-valued measures. It is also shown that the uncertainty in the time of occurrence of an event satisfies the time-energy uncertainty relation as a consequence of the time-translation invariance, only if the time of occurrence experiment is performed on the entire time axis. (author)

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in untreated and treated sewage sludge: Occurrence and environmental risk in the case of application on soil - A critical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlicchi, P; Zambello, E

2015-12-15

This review is based on 59 papers published between 2002 and 2015, referring to about 450 treatment trains providing data regarding sludge concentrations for 169 compounds, specifically 152 pharmaceuticals and 17 personal care products, grouped into 28 different classes. The rationale of the study is to provide data to evaluate the environmental risk posed by the spreading of treated sludge in agriculture. Following discussion of the legislative scenario governing the final disposal of treated sludge in European countries and the USA, the study provides a snapshot of the occurrence of selected compounds in primary, secondary, mixed, digested, conditioned, composted and dried sludge originating in municipal wastewater treatment plants fed mainly with urban wastewater as well as in sludge-amended soil. Not only are measured values reported, but also predicted concentrations based on Kd values are reported. It emerges that in secondary sludge, the highest concentrations were found for fragrances, antiseptics and antibiotics and an attenuation in their concentrations occurs during treatment, in particular anaerobic digestion and composting. An in-depth literature survey of the (measured and predicted) Kd values for the different compounds and treated sludge are reported and an analysis of the influence of pH, redox conditions, sludge type was carried out. The data regarding measured and predicted concentrations of selected compounds in sludge-amended soil is then analyzed. Finally an environmental risk assessment posed by their occurrence in soil in the case of land application of sludge is examined, and the results obtained by different authors are compared. The most critical compounds found in the sludge-amended soil are estradiol, ciprofloxacin, ofloxacin, tetracycline, caffeine, triclosan and triclocarban. The study concludes with a focus on the main issues that should be further investigated in order to refine the environmental risk assessment. Copyright © 2015

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in waters: occurrence, toxicity, and risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Cizmas, Leslie; Sharma, Virender K; Gray, Cole M; McDonald, Thomas J

2015-12-01

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) are compounds with special physical and chemical properties that address the care of animal and human health. PPCP have been detected in surface water and wastewater in the ng/L to µg/L concentration range worldwide. PPCP ecotoxicity has been studied in a variety of organisms, and multiple methods have been used to assess the risk of PPCP in the environment to ecological health. Here we review the occurrence, effects, and risk assessment of PPCP in aquatic systems, as well as the sustainability of current methods for managing PPCP contamination in aquatic systems. The major points are the following: (1) a number of PPCP present potential concerns at environmentally relevant concentrations. PPCP mixtures may produce synergistic toxicity. (2) Various methods have been used for the ecological risk assessment of PPCP in aquatic systems. There are similarities in these methods, but no consensus has emerged regarding best practices for the ecological risk assessment of these compounds. (3) Human health risk assessments of PPCP contamination in aquatic systems have generally indicated little cause for concern. However, there is a lack of information regarding whether antibiotic contamination in wastewater and aquatic systems could lead to an increase in clinically relevant antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic-resistant genes. (4) Over the next century, the combination of increasing global population size and potential droughts may result in reduced water availability, increased need for water reuse, and increasing concentrations of PPCP in wastewaters. The current wastewater treatment methods do not remove all PPCP effectively. This, coupled with the possibility that antibiotics may promote the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic-resistant genes, leads to concerns about the sustainability of global water supplies.

Uses of risk importance measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

1991-05-01

Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

Occurrence of anionic surfactants in treated sewage: Risk assessment to aquatic environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mungray, Arvind Kumar; Kumar, Pradeep

2008-01-01

A comparative evaluation of occurrence of and risk to aquatic environment due to anionic surfactants (AS) in treated effluents from three main treatment processes, i.e. activated sludge process (ASP), oxidation pond (OP), and upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactor (UASBR) is presented. UASBR effluents contained substantial concentrations of AS (4.25-5.91 mg/L as average AS removal was not found to exceed 18%). Post-treatment of UASBR effluent using 1-1.6 days detention, anaerobic polishing ponds (PP) was also found quite ineffective. In UASBR-PP combine, AS reduced only up to 30%. Effluents from OP based sewage treatment plants (STPs) also contained significant concentrations of AS. On the contrary, effluent AS or linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) concentrations recorded in ASP effluents were quite low (less than 0.2 mg/L). Unlike UASBR, LAS or AS removals greater than 99% are achieved in ASP. Treated effluents from UASBR and OP based STPs when discharged to aquatic ecosystems are likely to cause substantial risk to aquatic environment due to the presence of AS while effluents from ASP are not supposed to pose risk. Need to find an effective aerobic post-treatment unit to UASBR for desired removal of AS is emphasized

Risk Factors Associated with the Occurrence of Gastrointestinal Helminths among Indigenous Donkeys (Equus asinus in Northeastern Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saleh Mohammed Jajere

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. This survey study was conducted from April 2014 through March 2015 in Bauchi, Yobe, and Gombe states, northeastern Nigeria, to explore the risk factors associated with the occurrence of gastrointestinal helminthosis among indigenous donkeys (Equus asinus. Materials and Methods. A total of six hundred fresh faecal samples were randomly collected from indigenous donkeys of varying age, sex, and settlements. Simple flotation and sedimentation techniques were used for the detection of helminths eggs. Results. Three gastrointestinal nematode parasites were encountered including Strongyle, Parascaris equorum, and Oxyuris equi. An overall prevalence of 98.3% was obtained, of which 78.3%, 40.3%, and 17.5% were, respectively, from Strongyle, Parascaris equorum, and Oxyuris equi. Age, sex, and season were not statistically associated with the risk of helminth infection as were the different study areas (p>0.05. However, body condition score, settlement, anthelminthic medication history, and management practices were significantly associated with the risk of gastrointestinal helminthosis. Statistically high prevalence of helminthic infections was observed in donkeys, with poor (thin body condition, from rural settlements, that were not dewormed and raised under poor management systems (p<0.001. Conclusion. It is concluded from the study that gastrointestinal helminths particularly Strongyle were endemic among the indigenous donkeys in northeastern Nigeria. Further control and preventive measures were discussed.

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

2017-01-01

We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

OpenAIRE

Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

2006-01-01

Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Pu...

Models of Credit Risk Measurement

OpenAIRE

Hagiu Alina

2011-01-01

Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

Occurrence, distribution and risks of antibiotics in urban surface water in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhui; Gao, Lihong; Shi, Yali; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

2015-09-01

The occurrence and distribution of 22 antibiotics, including eight fluoroquinolones, nine sulfonamides and five macrolides, were investigated in the urban surface waters in Beijing, China. A total of 360 surface water samples were collected from the main rivers and lakes in the urban area of Beijing monthly from July 2013 to June 2014 (except the frozen period). Laboratory analyses revealed that antibiotics were widely used and extensively distributed in the surface water of Beijing, and sulfonamides and fluoroquinolones were the predominant antibiotics with the average concentrations of 136 and 132 ng L(-1), respectively. A significant difference of antibiotic concentrations from different sampling sites was observed, and the southern and eastern regions of Beijing showed higher concentrations of antibiotics. Seasonal variation of the antibiotics in the urban surface water was also studied, and the highest level of antibiotics was found in November, which may be due to the low temperature and flow of the rivers during the period of cold weather. Risk assessment showed that several antibiotics might pose high ecological risks to aquatic organisms (algae and plants) in surface water, and more attention should be paid to the risk of antibiotics to the aquatic environment in Beijing.

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

THE MEASUREMENT OF BONE QUALITY USING GRAY LEVEL CO-OCCURRENCE MATRIX TEXTURAL FEATURES.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirvaikar, Mukul; Huang, Ning; Dong, Xuanliang Neil

2016-10-01

In this paper, statistical methods for the estimation of bone quality to predict the risk of fracture are reported. Bone mineral density and bone architecture properties are the main contributors of bone quality. Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) is the traditional clinical measurement technique for bone mineral density, but does not include architectural information to enhance the prediction of bone fragility. Other modalities are not practical due to cost and access considerations. This study investigates statistical parameters based on the Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) extracted from two-dimensional projection images and explores links with architectural properties and bone mechanics. Data analysis was conducted on Micro-CT images of 13 trabecular bones (with an in-plane spatial resolution of about 50μm). Ground truth data for bone volume fraction (BV/TV), bone strength and modulus were available based on complex 3D analysis and mechanical tests. Correlation between the statistical parameters and biomechanical test results was studied using regression analysis. The results showed Cluster-Shade was strongly correlated with the microarchitecture of the trabecular bone and related to mechanical properties. Once the principle thesis of utilizing second-order statistics is established, it can be extended to other modalities, providing cost and convenience advantages for patients and doctors.

Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

2016-04-01

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment - A critical review and an initial risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wik, Anna; Dave, Goeran

2009-01-01

This review summarizes the existing knowledge on the occurrence of tire wear particles in the environment, and their ecotoxicological effects. A meta-analysis on tire components in the environment revealed that tire wear particles are present in all environmental compartments, including air, water, soils/sediments, and biota. The maximum Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of tire wear particles in surface waters range from 0.03 to 56 mg l -1 and the maximum PECs in sediments range from 0.3 to 155 g kg -1 d.w. The results from our previous long-term studies with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs). The upper ranges for PEC/PNEC ratios in water and sediment were >1, meaning that tire wear particles present potential risks for aquatic organisms. We suggest that management should be directed towards development and production of more environmentally friendly tires and improved road runoff treatment. - The literature on the occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment is critically reviewed, and the risks to the aquatic environment are assessed

Meteorological influence on the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in military working dogs in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, George E.; Levine, Michael; Anderson, Johnna D.; Trapp, Robert J.

2008-01-01

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition in dogs and other species in which the stomach dilates and rotates on itself. The etiology of the disease is multi-factorial, but explicit precipitating causes are unknown. This study sought to determine if there was a significant association between changes in hourly-measured temperature and/or atmospheric pressure and the occurrence of GDV in the population of high-risk working dogs in Texas. The odds of a day being a GDV day, given certain temperature and atmospheric pressure conditions for that day or the day before, was estimated using logistic regression models. There were 57 days in which GDV(s) occurred, representing 2.60% of the days in the 6-year study period. The months of November, December, and January collectively accounted for almost half (47%) of all cases. Disease risk was negatively associated with daily maximum temperature. An increased risk of GDV was weakly associated with the occurrence of large hourly drops in temperature that day and of higher minimum barometric pressure that day and the day before GDV occurrence, but extreme changes were not predictive of the disease.

Falls in institutions for older adults: characterization of fall occurrences and associated risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Rosa Soares Lavareda Baixinho

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Falls are the main accident for older adults, with consequences on functionality. Older adults impose restrictions or have restrictions imposed on their activities for fear of new falls. This prospective longitudinal study was conducted with 104 institutionalized older adults during six months with the following goals: to determine the prevalence of falls, to characterize the falls according to place, time, resulting injuries, supervision of the older adult, action performed at the time of the fall, and to relate the occurrence of the fall to the risk of falling, medical diagnoses, number of medications in use, type of medication, degree of dependency, age, and gender. The prevalence of falls was 37.5%, and they happened mostly in the bedroom, while walking after getting up from the bed. Those under risk in the Morse Fall Scale (p=0.034 and on sedatives (p=0.007 face a higher prevalence of falls. This study enables the possibility of making suggestions for practice, training and investigation.

Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

2006-01-01

Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

Occurrence, Distribution, and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in a Subtropical River-Reservoir System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yihan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Antibiotic pollutions in the aquatic environment have attracted widespread attention due to their ubiquitous distribution and antibacterial properties. The occurrence, distribution, and ecological risk assessment of 17 common antibiotics in this study were preformed in a vital drinking water source represented as a river-reservoir system in South China. In general, 15 antibiotics were detected at least once in the watershed, with the total concentrations of antibiotics in the water samples ranging from 193.6 to 863.3 ng/L and 115.1 to 278.2 μg/kg in the sediment samples. For the water samples, higher rain runoff may contribute to the levels of total concentration in the river system, while perennial anthropic activity associated with the usage pattern of antibiotics may be an important factor determining similar sources and release mechanisms of antibiotics in the riparian environment. Meanwhile, the reservoir system could act as a stable reactor to influence the level and composition of antibiotics exported from the river system. For the sediment samples, hydrological factor in the reservoir may influence the antibiotic distributions along with seasonal variation. Ecological risk assessment revealed that tetracycline and ciprofloxacin could pose high risks in the aquatic environment. Taken together, further investigations should be performed to elaborate the environmental behaviors of antibiotics in the river-reservoir system, especially in drinking water sources.

Occurrence and risk factors associated with infection by Toxoplasma gondii in goats in the State of Alagoas, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulliano Aires Anderlini

2011-04-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Goats are considered very susceptible to infection by Toxoplasma gondii and when this occurs during pregnancy, it may cause fetal death with subsequent fetal resorption, abortion, mummification, stillborn or the birth of weak goats. The objective of this work was to determine the occurrence of and identify risk factors for T. gondii infection in goats in different mesoregions in the State of Alagoas. METHODS: The research was conducted on 24 goat breeding farms in 10 municipalities. A total of 454 blood samples were examined for anti-T. gondii antibodies by indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. To evaluate the risk factors of toxoplasmosis in goats, questionnaires were applied analyzing the farm's production system and nutritional, reproductive and sanitary management. RESULTS: Disease occurrence was 39% with 95.8% of farms presenting seropositive animals. Significant associations were observed for mesoregion (OR = 0.23; 95%CI = 0.09 - 0.57, age (OR = 0.36; 95%CI = 0.20 - 0.64, semi-intensive herd management (OR = 8.70; 95%CI = 1.87 - 40.43, access of cats to water provided for goats (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.89-6.02 and cats feeding on placental remnants (OR = 2.73; 95%CI = 1.38 - 5.40. CONCLUSIONS: Toxoplasma gondii infection is disseminated in the State of Alagoas and the adoption of a program that monitors infection foci is required to reduce the risk factors identified in the present study.

Occurrence of mammary tumors in beagls given radium-226

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruenger, F.W.; Lloyd, R.D.; Miller, S.C.; Taylor, G.N.; Angus, W.; Huth, D.A.

1994-01-01

A total of 128 primary mammary tumors (66 of them malignant) occurred in 35 female beagles injected with 226 Ra at eight dose levels ranging from 0.2 to 440 kBq/kg body mass as young adults, while a total of 156 mammary tumors (57 of them malignant) were seen in 46 female control beagles not given any radioactivity. Sixty-three of 65 control dogs and 59 of 61 dogs given 226 Ra survived the minimum age for diagnosis of mammary tumors of 3.75 years. Based on the observed age-dependent tumor incidence rates in the controls and on the corresponding number of dog-years at risk, the total number of observed malignant tumors in the radium group was statistically greater than the number of expected malignant tumors (66 observed vs 34 expected, P < 0.005). There was no such difference for the benign tumors. Cox regression analysis indicated no increased risk for the first tumor occurrence in irradiated dogs. Cox regression analysis of the multivariate risk sets showed no significantly increased risk for the occurrence of benign tumors but a statistically higher risk of 1.66 with a confidence interval of 1.15-2.40 for the occurrence of malignant tumors. The increased risk was dependent on dose, but a dependence on the frequency of previous occurrence of mammary tumors could not be confirmed. Censoring ovariectomized dogs at time of surgery decreased the relative risks slightly but did not alter the significance. Exposure to diagnostic X rays with cumulative exposures below 0.2 Gy had no effect on tumor formation. It is unknown whether the increased risk for malignant mammary tumors was due to some initial deposition of radium in sensitive tissue, a possible irradiation of fatty mammary tissue from transient radon → polonium deposition, or a general effect of the overall radium deposition on the immune system of the dogs that lowered their resistance to formation of mammary tumors. 27 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

Risk factors with the occurrence of parasites and coliform in vegetables from an agroindustry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Rafael Martins Soto

Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this study, we evaluated the risk factors associated with the occurrence of total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs in vegetables from an agroindustry in the city of Ibiúna - SP, Brazil. A questionnaire with 17 questions was applied to 24 producers to carry out a diagnosis of the risk factors and their posterior association or not with total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs. The questions addressed mainly the production system, fertilizer used, source of the water used for irrigation, sanitization of the vegetables, and form of transport. For the investigation of total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms, and intestinal parasite eggs, the samples were processed at the microbiology and parasitology laboratory of the Federal Institute of São Paulo, São Roque Campus. The results revealed that total coliforms were found in 100% of the investigated samples and thermotolerant coliforms were detected in 95.83% of the samples. There was a significant statistical association for the risk factor use of reservoir water, where there was release of wastewater and absence of sanitization of the vegetables at the moment of harvest in relation to the presence of thermotolerant coliforms. Intestinal parasite eggs were found in 33.33% of the samples.

Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

2001-01-01

In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

Risk factors for occurrence of displaced abomasum and their relation to nutritional management of Holstein dairy cattle

OpenAIRE

Behluli, Behlul; Musliu, Arben; Sherifi, Kurtesh; Youngs, Curtis R.; Rexhepi, Agim

2017-01-01

The aim of the present study was to identify nutritional risk factors for the occurrence of displaced abomasum (DA) in Holstein dairy cattle raised in regions with highly variable nutritional management. Feeding program data were collected from 30 dairy farms throughout Kosovo via use of a standardized questionnaire, and an AgriNIR™ Analyser was used to analyze the nutrient composition of forage (hay, corn silage) fed to cattle on those farms. A diagnosis of DA was made via auscultation/percu...

MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vona Mate

2014-07-01

Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

Current understanding of microplastics in the environment: Occurrence, fate, risks, and what we should do.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Jinping; Wang, Jundong; Cai, Liqi

2017-05-01

Microplastics pollution has been documented in the global environment, including at sea, in freshwater and in atmospheric fallout. Ingestion of microplastics by multiple kinds of organisms has been reported and has received increasing attention, because microplastics not only act as a source of toxic chemicals but also a sink for toxic chemicals. To better understand the great concerns about microplastics and associated toxic chemicals potential exposed to the organisms ingesting the debris, we should know more about the occurrence, fate, and risks of microplastics in the environment. What we should do depends on this better understanding. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:476-482. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Occurrence, behavior and effects of nanoparticles in the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowack, Bernd; Bucheli, Thomas D.

2007-01-01

The increasing use of engineered nanoparticles (NP) in industrial and household applications will very likely lead to the release of such materials into the environment. Assessing the risks of these NP in the environment requires an understanding of their mobility, reactivity, ecotoxicity and persistency. This review presents an overview of the classes of NP relevant to the environment and summarizes their formation, emission, occurrence and fate in the environment. The engineered NP are thereby compared to natural products such as soot and organic colloids. To date only few quantitative analytical techniques for measuring NP in natural systems are available, which results in a serious lack of information about their occurrence in the environment. Results from ecotoxicological studies show that certain NP have effects on organisms under environmental conditions, though mostly at elevated concentrations. The next step towards an assessment of the risks of NP in the environment should therefore be to estimate the exposure to the different NP. It is also important to notice that most NP in technical applications are functionalized and therefore studies using pristine NP may not be relevant for assessing the behavior of the NP actually used. - The behavior and the effects of natural and engineered nanoparticles in the environment are reviewed

Occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion in the population of young adults in Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Asmyhr, Øyvind; Grytten, Jostein; Holst, Dorthe

2012-10-01

The aim of this study was to describe the occurrence of risk factors for dental erosion for a group of young adults who are particularly susceptible to erosion. Another aim was to describe the awareness of erosion and distribution of risk factors according to the educational background of the parents. The sample (n = 2004 individuals) was randomly drawn from the population of 19-20-year-old Norwegians. The data were collected using telephone interviews. We measured awareness about erosion using the following question: 'Have you ever heard about dental erosion?' We obtained information about the frequency of intake of the following risk factors: soft drinks with and without sugar, and juice. Soft drinks with sugar included lemonade (Coca-Cola, Solo, Pepsi, Mozell and ice tea) and sport drinks (XL1, Maxim). Soft drinks without sugar included Cola light, Zero, PepsiMax, Solo light and ice tea light. Juice included orange, grapefruit, apple and kiwi juice. The parents' level of education was based on the Norwegian school system, which has three levels: compulsory schooling (10 years), upper secondary school education (up to 13 years) and university/college education. The data were analysed using logistic regressions analyses. Awareness of erosion was high - 93.5% of respondents were aware of the problem. The majority of respondents believed that erosion can be prevented - altogether 84.9%. They also believed that soft drinks with and without sugar are equally important for the development of erosion. 17.5% of respondents drank soft drinks with sugar daily or several times a day. The corresponding figures for soft drinks without sugar and juice were 4.9% and 34.1%, respectively. Young adults with mothers with high education drank soft drinks both with and without sugar less frequently than those who had mothers with low education. This pattern was the opposite for juice. Consumption of soft drinks and juice is high, even though awareness and knowledge about the causes

Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

2017-01-01

textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

2002-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

Decision principles derived from risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

Recent climate change affecting rainstorm occurrences: a case study in East China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Domroes

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the occurrences of rainstorms and their relationship with the climate change scenario. The study period under investigation refers to the period of greatest recent warming between 1976–2000 whereas the study area covers China east of 105 E longitude. This region is commonly considered to be controlled by the monsoon type of climate over East Asia.

Positive (increasing trends of rainstorm occurrences, both in annual and summer respects, have been shown for subtropical China whereas a non-uniform picture is associated with temperate China. The increase of rainstorms in subtropical China corresponds with an increasing trend of precipitation. At the same time, subtropical China experiences a mostly decreasing recent temperature change. No clear evidence could, however, be proved for a direct linkage between increasing temperatures and greater rainstorm occurrences. Within the climate change scenario a great risk of rainstorm occurrences must be regarded as part of the increasing risk of extreme weather events.

Rainstorm occurrences are of a great practical importance as they increase the risk for environmental hazards such as landslides, landslips and floods. Landuse planners must therefore pay a great attention to an increasing number of rainstorms and their adverse risk impact on the environment.

Such practical aspects need particular attention in subtropical China as the region of largest increase of rainstorm occurrences and where, at the same time, the mountains and hilly landscapes are particularly hazard-prone to landslides and floods.

Precipitation increases the occurrence of sporadic legionnaires' disease in Taiwan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nai-Tzu Chen

Full Text Available Legionnaires' disease (LD is an acute form of pneumonia, and changing weather is considered a plausible risk factor. Yet, the relationship between weather and LD has rarely been investigated, especially using long-term daily data. In this study, daily data was used to evaluate the impacts of precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity on LD occurrence in Taiwan from 1995-2011. A time-stratified 2:1 matched-period case-crossover design was used to compare each case with self-controlled data using a conditional logistic regression analysis, and odds ratios (ORs for LD occurrence was estimated. The city, gender and age were defined as a stratum for each matched set to modify the effects. For lag day- 0 to 15, the precipitation at lag day-11 significantly affected LD occurrence (p0.05. In conclusion, in warm, humid regions, an increase of daily precipitation is likely to be a critical weather factor triggering LD occurrence where the risk is found particularly significant at an 11-day lag. Additionally, precipitation at 21-40 and 61-80 mm might make LD occurrence more likely.

Measures of risk importance and their applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

1983-07-01

This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

2013-01-01

We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

Behavior of sartans (antihypertensive drugs) in wastewater treatment plants, their occurrence and risk for the aquatic environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayer, Anne; Asner, Robert; Schüssler, Walter; Kopf, Willi; Weiß, Klaus; Sengl, Manfred; Letzel, Marion

2014-09-01

Pharmaceuticals and other anthropogenic trace contaminants reach wastewaters and are often not satisfactorily eliminated in sewage treatment plants. These contaminants and/or their degradation products may reach surface waters, thus influencing aquatic life. In this study, the behavior of five different antihypertonic pharmaceuticals from the sartan group (candesartan, eprosartan, irbesartan, olmesartan and valsartan) is investigated in lab-scale sewage plants. The elimination of the substances with related structures varied broadly from 17 % for olmesartan up to 96 % for valsartan. Monitoring data for these drugs in wastewater effluents of six different sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Bavaria, and at eight rivers, showed median concentrations for, e.g. valsartan of 1.1 and 0.13 μg L(-1), respectively. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) were calculated and are mostly consistent with the measured environmental concentrations (MEC). The selected sartans and the mixture of the five sartans showed no ecotoxic effects on aquatic organisms in relevant concentrations. Nevertheless, the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the environment should be reduced to minimize the risk of their distribution in surface waters, ground waters and bank filtrates used for drinking water.

Antibiotics in Crab Ponds of Lake Guchenghu Basin, China: Occurrence, Temporal Variations, and Ecological Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenxia Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Antibiotics are widely used in aquaculture, however, this often results in undesirable ecological effects. To evaluate the occurrence, temporal variations, and ecological risk of antibiotics in five crab ponds of Lake Guchenghu Basin, China, 44 antibiotics from nine classes were analyzed by rapid resolution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (RRLC-MS/MS. Twelve antibiotics belonging to six classes were detected in the aqueous phase of five crab ponds, among which sulfonamides and macrolides were the predominant classes, and six compounds (sulfamonomethoxine, sulfadiazine, trimethoprim, erythromycin-H2O, monensin, and florfenicol were frequently detected at high concentrations. In general, the antibiotic levels varied between different crab ponds, with the average concentrations ranging from 122 to 1440 ng/L. The antibiotic concentrations in crab ponds exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest concentration and detection frequency detected in summer. Multivariate analysis showed that antibiotic concentrations were significantly correlated with environmental variables, such as total organic carbon, phosphate, ammonia nitrogen, and pH. Sulfadiazine, clarithromycin, erythromycin-H2O, and ciprofloxacin posed a high risk to algae, while the mixture of antibiotics could pose a high risk to aquatic organisms in the crab ponds. Overall, the usage of antibiotics in farming ponds should be comprehensively investigated and controlled to preserve a healthy aquaculture ecosystem.

Study of pharmaceuticals in surface and wastewater from Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico: Occurrence and environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera-Jaimes, José Abraham; Postigo, Cristina; Melgoza-Alemán, Rosa María; Aceña, Jaume; Barceló, Damia; López de Alda, Miren

2018-02-01

The present work describes the first known study to date on the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in surface water and wastewater of Cuernavaca, the capital of the state of Morelos (México). Selected pharmaceuticals (a total of 35) were extracted from the collected water samples with a generic solid phase extraction (SPE) protocol and determined in the sample extracts by means of high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS/MS). A screening level risk assessment combining the measured environmental concentrations (MECs) with dose-response data based on predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) was also applied to estimate Hazard Quotients (HQs) for the pharmaceuticals detected in the investigated area. A total of twelve pharmaceuticals were found in the water samples analyzed, with detection frequencies above 78% and in most cases of 100%. Overall, the most abundant pharmaceuticals in surface water were the analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs naproxen (732-4880ng/L), acetaminophen (354-4460ng/L), and diclofenac (258-1398ng/L), and the lipid regulator bezafibrate (286-2100ng/L). On the contrary, other compounds like the β-blocker atenolol and the psychiatric drug carbamazepine were found at only a few ng or tens of ng per liter in the Apatlaco River. Despite the fact that some of the most abundant compounds showed good removal (>97%) during wastewater treatment, concentrations downstream the WWTP were only slightly lower than upstream. This indicates the existence of additional inputs of untreated wastewater into the river. Based on the obtained HQ-values, the concentrations of ibuprofen, sulfamethoxazole, diclofenac and naproxen present in the river could pose a high toxicity risk for the aquatic ecosystem. These findings highlight these pharmaceuticals as relevant organic contaminants in the area of study and the need to further monitor them in order to adopt appropriate measures to safeguard the

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinela BARBULESCU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

CO-OCCURRENCE OF DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

cardiovascular disease (CVD), and when they co-exist ... and hypertension among patients with co-occurrence ... are any clinical and metabolic differences between those ... The last 3 readings of their fasting blood .... as insulin resistance, aging, obesity, use of thiazide ... therapy as risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

2017-10-01

Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Web-Based versus High-Fidelity Simulation Training for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists in the Management of High Risk/Low Occurrence Anesthesia Events

Science.gov (United States)

Kimemia, Judy

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this project was to compare web-based to high-fidelity simulation training in the management of high risk/low occurrence anesthesia related events, to enhance knowledge acquisition for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). This project was designed to answer the question: Is web-based training as effective as…

Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

2007-01-01

Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

Adolescent health in rural Ghana: A cross-sectional study on the co-occurrence of infectious diseases, malnutrition and cardio-metabolic risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Alicke, Marie; Boakye-Appiah, Justice K.; Abdul-Jalil, Inusah; Henze, Andrea; van der Giet, Markus; Schulze, Matthias B.; Schweigert, Florian J.; Mockenhaupt, Frank P.; Bedu-Addo, George

2017-01-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, infectious diseases and malnutrition constitute the main health problems in children, while adolescents and adults are increasingly facing cardio-metabolic conditions. Among adolescents as the largest population group in this region, we investigated the co-occurrence of infectious diseases, malnutrition and cardio-metabolic risk factors (CRFs), and evaluated demographic, socio-economic and medical risk factors for these entities. In a cross-sectional study among 188 adolescents in rural Ghana, malarial infection, common infectious diseases and Body Mass Index were assessed. We measured ferritin, C-reactive protein, retinol, fasting glucose and blood pressure. Socio-demographic data were documented. We analyzed the proportions (95% confidence interval, CI) and the co-occurrence of infectious diseases (malaria, other common diseases), malnutrition (underweight, stunting, iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency [VAD]), and CRFs (overweight, obesity, impaired fasting glucose, hypertension). In logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs were calculated for the associations with socio-demographic factors. In this Ghanaian population (age range, 14.4–15.5 years; males, 50%), the proportions were for infectious diseases 45% (95% CI: 38–52%), for malnutrition 50% (43–57%) and for CRFs 16% (11–21%). Infectious diseases and malnutrition frequently co-existed (28%; 21–34%). Specifically, VAD increased the odds of non-malarial infectious diseases 3-fold (95% CI: 1.03, 10.19). Overlap of CRFs with infectious diseases (6%; 2–9%) or with malnutrition (7%; 3–11%) was also present. Male gender and low socio-economic status increased the odds of infectious diseases and malnutrition, respectively. Malarial infection, chronic malnutrition and VAD remain the predominant health problems among these Ghanaian adolescents. Investigating the relationships with evolving CRFs is warranted. PMID:28727775

Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

2016-01-01

This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcez, Thalles Vitelli; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2014-01-01

This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM’s attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory. - Highlights: • The paper proposes a risk measure of underground vaults for manhole events. • It makes risk analysis in underground electrical distribution networks. • It makes more than show a risk ranking of underground vaults. • It can show to the DM how

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heje Pedersen, Lasse

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

Cloud Occurrence Measurements Over Sea during the 2nd 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) Field Campaign in Palawan Archipelago

Science.gov (United States)

Antioquia, C. T.; Uy, S. N.; Caballa, K.; Lagrosas, N.

2014-12-01

Ground based sky imaging cameras have been used to measure cloud cover over an area to aid in radiation budget models. During daytime, certain clouds tend to help decrease atmospheric temperature by obstructing sunrays in the atmosphere. Thus, the detection of clouds plays an important role in the formulation of radiation budget in the atmosphere. In this study, a wide angled sky imager (GoPro Hero 2) was brought on board M/Y Vasco to detect and quantity cloud occurrence over sea during the 2nd 7SEAS field campaign. The camera is just a part of a number of scientific instruments used to measure weather, aerosol chemistry and solar radiation among others. The data collection started during the departure from Manila Bay on 05 September 2012 and went on until the end of the cruise (29 September 2012). The camera was placed in a weather-proof box that is then affixed on a steel mast where other instruments are also attached during the cruise. The data has a temporal resolution of 1 minute, and each image is 500x666 pixels in size. Fig. 1a shows the track of the ship during the cruise. The red, blue, hue, saturation, and value of the pixels are analysed for cloud occurrence. A pixel is considered to "contain" thick cloud if it passes all four threshold parameters (R-B, R/B, R-B/R+B, HSV; R is the red pixel color value, blue is the blue pixel color value, and HSV is the hue saturation value of the pixel) and considered thin cloud if it passes two or three parameters. Fig. 1b shows the daily analysis of cloud occurrence. Cloud occurrence here is quantified as the ratio of the pixels with cloud to the total number of pixels in the data image. The average cloud cover for the days included in this dataset is 87%. These measurements show a big contrast when compared to cloud cover over land (Manila Observatory) which is usually around 67%. During the duration of the cruise, only one day (September 6) has an average cloud occurrence below 50%; the rest of the days have

Tychastic measure of viability risk

CERN Document Server

Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

2014-01-01

This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Long, K. R.

2009-12-01

Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

A bootstrap based space-time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Youngho; O'Kelly, Morton

2008-06-01

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space-time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space-time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space-time surveillance than the space-time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.

Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

Science.gov (United States)

Citrome, Leslie

2009-09-01

Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

Problems involved in calculating the probability of rare occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tittes, E.

1986-01-01

Also with regard to the characteristics such as occurrence probability or occurrence rate, there are limits which have to be observed, or else probability data and thus the concept of determinable risk itself will lose its practical value. The mathematical models applied for probability assessment are based on data supplied by the insurance companies, reliability experts in the automobile industry, or by planning experts in the field of traffic or information supply. (DG) [de

Occurrence and knowledge about needle stick injury in nursing students

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prasuna, J.; Sharma, R.

2015-01-01

Needle stick injury (NSI) became a major issue and most of the research focuses on Nurses, Doctors and other health care workers, but at the same time nursing students in clinical duties are at high risk. Studies are available which examined NSI only in Medical students and health care workers. The present study is aimed to measure the occurrence of needle stick injury along with post exposure measures and evaluation of the knowledge regarding needle stick injury among nursing student. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in North-East India in 2013. The study participants comprised of 83 nursing students studying in 4th year B.Sc. (N) and 3rd year General Nursing and Midwifery (GNM). Students were questioned regarding their occurrence to Needle Stick Injury throughout their clinical training and measures taken following the exposure. They were also asked to complete the Knowledge questionnaire on NSI. Results: The study among 83 nursing students included 43 (51.81%) GNM 3rd year and 40 (48.19%) B.Sc. Nursing Students. Out of a total 83 students, 75 (90.36%) were females. The occurrence of NSI during their course was reported by 33 (39.76%) participants. The maximum NSI occurred during first year of course (57.57%). It was found that 18 (54.54%) of NSIs were not reported. Among those exposed, only 5 (15.15%) students had undergone blood investigation and very few students took post exposure measures. It was found that, only 23 (69.69%) students were immunized against Hepatitis B before NSI. Conclusion: The present study indicated a high incidence of needle stick injuries among nursing students with more under-reported cases and subjects were not aware of post exposure measures. It is essential to deal above problems by regular training on real-life procedure at the entry level and reporting system should be more user-friendly platform. (author)

Predictive score of sarcopenia occurrence one year after bariatric surgery in severely obese patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Voican, Cosmin Sebastian; Lebrun, Amandine; Maitre, Sophie; Lainas, Panagiotis; Lamouri, Karima; Njike-Nakseu, Micheline; Gaillard, Martin; Tranchart, Hadrien; Balian, Axel; Dagher, Ibrahim; Perlemuter, Gabriel; Naveau, Sylvie

2018-01-01

Sarcopenic obesity is a risk factor of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to generate a predictive score of sarcopenia occurrence one year after bariatric surgery. We conducted an observational prospective cohort study on a total of 184 severely obese patients admitted to our institution to undergo sleeve gastrectomy. Skeletal muscle cross-sectional area at the third lumbar vertebrae (SMA, cm2) was measured from the routinely performed computed tomography. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated as follows: SMA/height2 (cm2/m2). Sarcopenia was defined as an SMI predictive sarcopenia occurrence scores were constructed using SMA and gender (SS1 score) or SMI and gender (SS2 score). The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the SS2 score was significantly greater than that of the SS1 score for the diagnosis of postoperative sarcopenia occurrence (0.95±0.02 versus 0.90±0.02; ppredictive value of 83%, and a negative predictive value of 95%. In the group of patients without baseline sarcopenia, the SS2 score had still an excellent AUROC of 0.92±0.02. A cut-off of 0.55 predicted development of sarcopenia one year after sleeve gastrectomy in these patients with a sensitivity of 87%, a specificity of 88%, and negative predictive value of 95%. The SS2 score has excellent predictive value for the occurrence of sarcopenia one year after sleeve gastrectomy. This score can be used to target early intensification of nutritional and dietetic follow-up to the predicted high-risk population.

Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

2011-01-01

We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

Occurrence of antibiotics in soils and manures from greenhouse vegetable production bases of Beijing, China and an associated risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cheng; Chen, Jiayi; Wang, Jihua; Ma, Zhihong; Han, Ping; Luan, Yunxia; Lu, Anxiang

2015-07-15

The occurrence of 15 antibiotics in soil and manure samples from 11 large-scale greenhouse vegetable production (GVP) bases in Beijing, China was investigated. Results showed that the greenhouse soils were ubiquitously contaminated with antibiotics, and that antibiotic concentrations were significantly higher in greenhouses than in open field soils. The mean concentrations of four antibiotic classes decreased in the following order: tetracyclines (102μg/kg)>quinolones (86μg/kg)>sulfonamides (1.1μg/kg)>macrolides (0.62μg/kg). This investigation also indicated that fertilization with manure and especially animal feces might be the primary source of antibiotics. A risk assessment based on the calculated risk quotients (RQs) demonstrated that oxytetracycline, chlortetracycline, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin could pose a high risk to soil organisms. These results suggested that the ecological effects of antibiotic contamination in GVP bases and their potential adverse risks on human health need to be given special attention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, F.J.; Carvalho, L.; Costa, I.C.; Iria, J.P.; Bodet, J.-M.; Jacinto, G.; Lecocq, A.; Roessner, J.; Caillard, B.; Salvi, O.

2015-01-01

This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life cycle. Afterwards, the hazards identified were mapped in the different stages of the battery life cycle and two analyses were performed for each stage: an internal problem analysis and an external peril analysis. For both, the dangerous phenomena and the undesirable events resulting from each hazard was evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence and severity. Then, a risk assessment was carried out according to a predefined risk matrix and a preliminary set of risk mitigation measures were proposed to reduce their probability of occurrence and/or their severity level. The results obtained show that it is possible to reduce the probability of occurrence/severity of all the risks associated to the battery life cycle to acceptable or tolerable levels. - Highlights: • Methodology for a detailed risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries. • Various hazards and dangerous situations are analysed with high detail. • Useful information on how to prevent or manage the undesired events is provided. • Measures to reduce probability of occurrence/severity of the risks are presented

Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyrväinen, T.

2013-01-01

This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

Occurrence, bioaccumulation and risk assessment of dioxin-like PCBs along the Chenab river, Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eqani, Syed Ali Musstjab Akber Shah; Cincinelli, Alessandra; Mehmood, Adeel; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Zhang, Gan

2015-01-01

This study aimed to assess the occurrence, distribution and dietary risks of seven dl-PCBs (dioxin-like PCBs) in eleven collected fish species from Chenab river, Pakistan. ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng g"−"1, wet weight) burden was species-specific and the maximum average concentrations were found in Mastacembelus armatus (5.43), and Rita rita (5.1). Correlation of each dl-PCBs with δ"1"5N%, indicated a food chain accumulation process of these chemicals into Chenab river, Pakistan. Species-specific toxicity of each dl-PCBs (WHO–PCBs TEQ) was calculated and higher values were found in three carnivore fish species i.e., M. armatus (2.5 pg TEQ g"−"1), R. rita (2.47 pg TEQ g"−"1), Securicola gora (2.98 pg TEQ g"−"1) and herbivore fish species i.e., Cirrhinus mrigala (2.44 pg TEQ g"−"1). The EDI (Estimated Daily Intake) values in most cases exceeded the WHO benchmark (4 pg WHO–TEQ kg"−"1 bw d"−"1) evidencing a potential health risk for consumers via fish consumption from Chenab river. - Highlights: • Dioxin-like PCBs in eleven collected fish species from Chenab river. • ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng/g, ww) burdens were specie-specific. • dl-PCBs (WHO-pg TEQ g"−"1ww) ranged between 0.96 and 2.9 in fish samples. • PCB-126 contribution was predominant towards total WHO dl-PCB TEQs. • Potential human health risk of dl-PCBs via fish consumption from Chenab river. - ∑_7dl-PCBs (ng g"−"1, ww) burdens in collected fish species from Chenab river, Pakistan reflected the potential human health risk via fish consumption.

Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Putter, H.; Fiocco, M.; Geskus, R. B.

2007-01-01

Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing

ON THE OCCURRENCE RATE OF HOT JUPITERS IN DIFFERENT STELLAR ENVIRONMENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Ji; Fischer, Debra A.; Horch, Elliott P.; Huang, Xu

2015-01-01

Many hot Jupiters (HJs) are detected by the Doppler and transit techniques. From surveys using these two techniques, however, the measured HJ occurrence rates differ by a factor of two or more. Using the California Planet Survey sample and the Kepler sample, we investigate the causes for this difference in the HJ occurrence rate. First, we find that 12.8% ± 0.24% of HJs are misidentified in the Kepler mission because of photometric dilution and subgiant contamination. Second, we explore the differences between the Doppler sample and the Kepler sample that can account for the different HJ occurrence rate. Third, we discuss how to measure the fundamental HJ occurrence rates by synthesizing the results from the Doppler and Kepler surveys. The fundamental HJ occurrence rates are measures of the HJ occurrence rate as a function of stellar multiplicity and evolutionary stage, e.g., the HJ occurrence rate for single and multiple stars or for main-sequence and subgiant stars. While we find qualitative evidence that HJs occur less frequently in subgiants and multiple stellar systems, we conclude that our current knowledge of stellar properties and the stellar multiplicity rate is too limited for us to reach any quantitative result for the fundamental HJ occurrence rates. This concern extends to η Earth , the occurrence rate of Earth-like planets

Thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in Danish broiler production: a cross-sectional survey and a retrospective analysis of risk factors for occurrence in broiler flocks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Birthe; Wedderkopp, A.; Madsen, Mogens

2000-01-01

In order to elucidate the rate of thermophilic Campylobacter spp, carriage in Danish broiler production and to identify risk factors for occurrence of campylobacter in broiler flocks, a total of 88 randomly selected broiler flocks were tested for campylobacter infection, and a subsequent study...... of processing, 24% of the flocks were positive. The species distribution was 87% Campylobacter jejuni, 8% Campylobacter coli and 5% Campylobacter lari, The following parameters were identified as significant risk factors: lack of a hygiene barrier (odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 1.1

Food and feed chemical contaminants in the European Union: Regulatory, scientific, and technical issues concerning chemical contaminants occurrence, risk assessment, and risk management in the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Silano, Marco; Silano, Vittorio

2017-07-03

A priority of the European Union is the control of risks possibly associated with chemical contaminants in food and undesirable substances in feed. Following an initial chapter describing the main contaminants detected in food and undesirable substances in feed in the EU, their main sources and the factors which affect their occurrence, the present review focuses on the "continous call for data" procedure that is a very effective system in place at EFSA to make possible the exposure assessment of specific contaminants and undesirable substances. Risk assessment of contaminants in food atances in feed is carried currently in the European Union by the CONTAM Panel of EFSA according to well defined methodologies and in collaboration with competent international organizations and with Member States.

The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garsztka Przemysław

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinertsen, Rune

1995-01-01

Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

Accuracy of determining the elements for occurrence of beds and curvature of well according to measurement data by the apparatus of a bed tiltmeter NID-1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krivonosov, R.I.; Karabel' nikova, G.N.; Khatuntsev, V.G.; Salov, Ye.A.

1979-01-01

Questions are examined of the accuracy of determining elements for occurrence of beds and curvature of wells using data of measurement by apparatus of a bed tiltmeter NID-1. Calculated formulas and graphs are presented for different conditions of occurrence of a bed, angle of inclination of the well and its diameter. The presented data make it possible to have a differentiated approach to evaluating the results of incline measurement.

Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

2018-06-01

This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

Occurrence, removal, and risk assessment of antibiotics in 12 wastewater treatment plants from Dalian, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin; Zhao, Hongxia; Du, Juan; Qu, Yixuan; Shen, Chen; Tan, Feng; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

2017-07-01

In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 31 antibiotics, including 11 sulfonamides (SAs), five fluoroquinolones (FQs), four macrolides (MLs), four tetracyclines (TCs), three chloramphenicols (CAPs), and four other antibiotics (Others), were investigated in 12 municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Dalian, China. A total of 29 antibiotics were detected in wastewater samples with the concentration ranging from 63.6 to 5404.6 ng/L. FQs and SAs were the most abundant antibiotic classes in most wastewater samples, accounting for 42.2 and 23.9% of total antibiotic concentrations, respectively, followed by TCs (16.0%) and MLs (14.8%). Sulfamethoxazole, erythromycin, clarithromycin, azithromycin, ofloxacin, and norfloxacin were the most frequently detected antibiotics; of these, the concentration of ofloxacin was the highest in most of influent (average concentration = 609.8 ng/L) and effluent (average concentration = 253.4 ng/L) samples. The removal efficiencies varied among WWTPs in the range of -189.9% (clarithromycin) to 100% (enoxacin, doxycycline, etc), and more than 50% of antibiotics could not be efficiently removed with the removal efficiency less than 65%. An environmental risk assessment was also performed in the WWTP effluents by calculating the risk quotient (RQ), and high RQ values (>1) indicated erythromycin and clarithromycin might cause the ecological risk on organisms in surrounding water near discharge point of WWTPs in this area, which warrants further attention.

Canonical correlation analysis of factors involved in the occurrence of peptic ulcers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayyurt, Nizamettin; Abasiyanik, M Fatih; Sander, Ersan; Salih, Barik A

2007-01-01

The impact of risk factors on the development of peptic ulcers has been shown to vary among different populations. We sought to establish a correlation between these factors and their involvement in the occurrence of peptic ulcers for which a canonical correlation analysis was applied. We included 7,014 patient records (48.6% women, 18.4% duodenal ulcer [DU], 4.6% gastric ulcer [GU]) of those underwent upper gastroendoscopy for the last 5 years. The variables measured are endoscopic findings (DU, GU, antral gastritis, erosive gastritis, pangastritis, pyloric deformity, bulbar deformity, bleeding, atrophy, Barret esophagus and gastric polyp) and risk factors (age, gender, Helicobacter pylori infection, smoking, alcohol, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] and aspirin intake). We found that DU had significant positive correlation with bulbar deformity (P=2.6 x 10(-23)), pyloric deformity (P=2.6 x 10(-23)), gender (P=2.6 x 10(-23)), H. pylori (P=1.4 x 10(-15)), bleeding (P=6.9 x 10(-15)), smoking (P=1.4 x 10(-7)), aspirin use (P=1.1 x 10(-4)), alcohol intake (P=7.7 x 10(-4)), and NSAIDs (P=.01). GU had a significantly positive correlation with pyloric deformity (P=1,6 x 10(-15)), age (P=2.6 x 10(-14)), bleeding (P=3.7 x 10(-8)), gender (P=1.3 x 10(-7)), aspirin use (P=1.1 x 10(-6)), bulbar deformity (P=7.4 x 10(-4)), alcohol intake (P=.03), smoking (P=.04), and Barret esophagus (P=.03). The level of significance was much higher in some variables with DU than with GU and the correlations with GU in spite of being highly significant the majority, were small in magnitude. In conclusion, Turkish patients with the following endoscopic findings bulbar deformity and pyloric deformity are high-risk patients for peptic ulcers with the risk of the occurrence of DU being higher than that of GU. Factors such as H. pylori, smoking, alcohol use, and NSAIDs use (listed in a decreasing manner) are risk factors that have significant impact on the occurrence of DU

CyanoHAB occurrence and water irrigation cyanotoxin contamination: ecological impacts and potential health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saqrane, Sana; Oudra, Brahim

2009-12-01

The world-wide occurrence of harmful cyanobacteria blooms "CyanoHAB" in fresh and brackish waters creates problems for all life forms. During CyanoHAB events, toxic cyanobacteria produce cyanotoxins at high levels that can cause chronic and sub-chronic toxicities to animals, plants and humans. Cyanotoxicity in eukaryotes has been mainly focused on animals, but during these last years, data, related to cyanotoxin (mainly microcystins, MCs) impact on both aquatic and terrestrials crop plants irrigated by water containing these toxins, have become more and more available. This last cited fact is gaining importance since plants could in a direct or indirect manner contribute to cyanotoxin transfer through the food chain, and thus constitute a potent health risk source. The use of this contaminated irrigation water can also have an economical impact which appears by a reduction of the germination rate of seeds, and alteration of the quality and the productivity of crop plants. The main objective of this work was to discuss the eventual phytotoxicity of cyanotoxins (microcystins) as the major agricultural impacts induced by the use of contaminated water for plant irrigation. These investigations confirm the harmful effects (ecological, eco-physiological, socio-economical and sanitary risk) of dissolved MCs on agricultural plants. Thus, cyanotoxin phytotoxicity strongly suggests a need for the surveillance of CyanoHAB and the monitoring of water irrigation quality as well as for drinking water.

Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aderita Sena

Full Text Available Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

2006-01-01

Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

safety risk management based on fuzzy logic at underground projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farhad Taherkhani

2017-11-01

Conclusion: In the present article, a new model was developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the event, which so far has not been addressed in other studies. Finally, effective measures can be taken to reduce the risk of a project by eliminating the high risk factors.

Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lathrop, J.W.

1978-01-01

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

2002-01-01

From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Hypothermia in Preterm Infants in the First Hours after Birth : Occurrence, Course and Risk Factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mank, Arenda; van Zanten, Henriëtte A; Meyer, Michael P; Pauws, Steffen; Lopriore, Enrico; Te Pas, Arjan B

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Hypothermia is associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates. Preterm infants frequently have hypothermia when they are admitted to the NICU, but there is no data on the occurrence of hypothermia during the first hours after admission. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the occurrence

New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

2013-01-01

Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

Some new classes of consistent risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

2004-01-01

Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Analysis of the leukemia cases occurrence at Vauhallan (Essonne)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The researches and environmental measurements realised at Vauhallan did not allow to assume a link between an environmental exposure of the population and the occurrence of the two cases of leukemia. In the lack of new hypothesis, the technical group has decided to not pursue the local investigations but to keep, at systematic title, the sanitary surveillance of the commune by a regular questioning of the national register of children leukemia and lymphomas. it is to notice that only studies at a broader scale , as the three national studies of I.n.s.e.r.m., actually running, are in a position to bring new knowledge on the risk factors of children leukemia as well their spatial distribution. (N.C.)

CyanoHAB Occurrence and Water Irrigation Cyanotoxin Contamination: Ecological Impacts and Potential Health Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Saqrane, Sana; Oudra, Brahim

2009-01-01

The world-wide occurrence of harmful cyanobacteria blooms “CyanoHAB” in fresh and brackish waters creates problems for all life forms. During CyanoHAB events, toxic cyanobacteria produce cyanotoxins at high levels that can cause chronic and sub-chronic toxicities to animals, plants and humans. Cyanotoxicity in eukaryotes has been mainly focused on animals, but during these last years, data, related to cyanotoxin (mainly microcystins, MCs) impact on both aquatic and terrestrials crop plants irrigated by water containing these toxins, have become more and more available. This last cited fact is gaining importance since plants could in a direct or indirect manner contribute to cyanotoxin transfer through the food chain, and thus constitute a potent health risk source. The use of this contaminated irrigation water can also have an economical impact which appears by a reduction of the germination rate of seeds, and alteration of the quality and the productivity of crop plants. The main objective of this work was to discuss the eventual phytotoxicity of cyanotoxins (microcystins) as the major agricultural impacts induced by the use of contaminated water for plant irrigation. These investigations confirm the harmful effects (ecological, eco-physiological, socio-economical and sanitary risk) of dissolved MCs on agricultural plants. Thus, cyanotoxin phytotoxicity strongly suggests a need for the surveillance of CyanoHAB and the monitoring of water irrigation quality as well as for drinking water. PMID:22069535

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim; Shaowen, Hu; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2009-01-01

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons

Role of NDT in risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, Jr. James F.

2009-01-01

Risk management is identifying and then managing threats that could severely affect or bring down a company. This involves reviewing the operations of the company to include the process, equipment, procedures and personnel. Potential threats are then identified including their probability of occurrence, and then taking appropriate actions to address the most likely threats. Traditionally, risk management was thought of as mostly getting the right insurance. However, this impression of risk management has changed dramatically. With the recent increase in rules and regulations and optimizing utilization of key resources, risk management is becoming a management practice that is as important as financial or facilities management. In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss and greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. (author)

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

1975-10-01

'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

Questionnaire Survey on the Occurrence of Risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection amongst Farmers in Thika District, Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Ogendi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A survey was conducted to determine the occurrence of risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection amongst farmers in Thika District, Kenya. Interviews were conducted in a total of 385 households using a structured questionnaire. The water consumed at household level originated from taps (74.3%, rivers or streams (15.1%, wells (5.4% and boreholes (5.2%. A number of households (46.8% consumed water without boiling or applying any form of treatment. All respondents washed vegetables before cooking, whilst 99.0% washed fruits before eating. Boiled milk was preferred by 99.5% of the farmers. The majority (85.2% consumed beef more often, whilst 1.6% consumed pork. The majority (98.7% consumed thoroughly cooked meat. Meat was preserved by 17% of farmers. Only four farmers (1.2% who practised mixed farming used gloves when handling livestock manure. Five farmers (1.6% reported the occurrence of abortion in ruminants and pigs on their farms within the last two years before the study. Almost half (44.9% of the households owned cats, which were kept mainly as pets (79.8% and for deterring rodents (20.2%. The majority of households (91.3% fed the cats on leftovers, whilst 8.1% fed cats with raw offal. Sixteen households (9.2% provided housing for cats. Only five households (2.8% had litter boxes, but none of the households with litter boxes used gloves when cleaning them out. Disposal of cat faeces was done mainly by women (55.5%. Only one farmer (0.3% had some knowledge about toxoplasmosis, but was not aware of the transmission mechanism. The study highlights the need for public health education to raise awareness of risk factors for toxoplasmosis.

Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

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Beatriz Martínez-López

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

Measuring your radon risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackmurdo, R.

1994-01-01

In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Göttsche, O.E.

2014-01-01

The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

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Alejandro Balbás

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

2017-06-30

This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

Relationships of risk factors for pre-eclampsia with patterns of occurrence of isolated gestational proteinuria during normal term pregnancy.

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Corrie Macdonald-Wallis

Full Text Available Isolated gestational proteinuria may be part of the pre-eclampsia disease spectrum. Confirmation of its association with established pre-eclampsia risk factors and higher blood pressure in uncomplicated pregnancies would support this concept.Data from 11,651 women from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children who had a term live birth but did not have pre-existing hypertension or diabetes or develop gestational diabetes or preeclampsia were used. Proteinuria was assessed repeatedly (median 12 measurements per woman by dipstick and latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of the population with different patterns of proteinuria in pregnancy.Higher maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI, younger age, nulliparity and twin pregnancy were independently associated with increased odds of any proteinuria in pregnancy. Women who experienced proteinuria showed five patterns: proteinuria in early pregnancy only (≤ 20 weeks gestation, and onset at 21-28 weeks, 29-32 weeks, 33-36 weeks and ≥ 37 weeks gestation. There were higher odds of proteinuria onset after 33 weeks in obese women and after 37 weeks in nulliparous women compared with normal weight and multiparous women respectively. Smoking in pregnancy was weakly negatively associated with odds of proteinuria onset after 37 weeks. Twin pregnancies had higher odds of proteinuria onset from 29 weeks. In women with proteinuria onset after 33 weeks blood pressure was higher in early pregnancy and at the end of pregnancy.Established pre-eclampsia risk factors were related to proteinuria occurrence in late gestation in healthy term pregnancies, supporting the hypothesis that isolated gestational proteinuria may represent an early manifestation of pre-eclampsia.

Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

CERN Document Server

Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

2017-01-01

This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peng, Feng Jiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Nai Sheng; Windfeld, Ronja; Salvito, Daniel; Selck, Henriette; Brink, Van den Paul J.; Ying, Guang Guo

2017-01-01

Urban rivers may receive contamination from various sources including point sources like domestic sewage and nonpoint sources (e.g., runoff), resulting in contamination with various chemicals. This study investigated the occurrence of emerging organic contaminants (3 endocrine disrupting

Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

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Qi-Song Yu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

Occurrence and risk assessment of phthalate esters (PAEs) in vegetables and soils of suburban plastic film greenhouses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Chen, Gangcai; Christie, Peter; Zhang, Manyun; Luo, Yongming; Teng, Ying

2015-08-01

Phthalate esters (PAEs) are suspected of having adverse effects on human health and have been frequently detected in soils and vegetables. The present study investigated their occurrence and composition in plastic film greenhouse soil-vegetable systems and assessed their potential health risks to farmers exposed to these widespread pollutants. Six priority control phthalates, namely dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBP), di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP), were determined in 44 plastic film greenhouse vegetables and corresponding soils. Total PAEs ranged from 0.51 to 7.16mgkg(-1) in vegetables and 0.40 to 6.20mgkg(-1) in soils with average concentrations of 2.56 and 2.23mgkg(-1), respectively. DnBP, DEHP and DnOP contributed more than 90% of the total PAEs in both vegetables and soils but the proportions of DnBP and DnOP in vegetables were significantly (p3.00mgkg(-1) but were plastic film greenhouses. Health risks were mainly by exposure through vegetable consumption and soil ingestion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

2010-01-01

We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

Prevalence and co-occurrence of addictive behaviors among former alternative high school youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Sussman, Steve; Arpawong, Thalida Em; Sun, Ping; Tsai, Jennifer; Rohrbach, Louise A; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2014-04-01

Recent work has studied multiple addictions using a matrix measure, which taps multiple addictions through single responses for each type. The present study investigated use of a matrix measure approach among former alternative high school youth (average age = 19.8 years) at risk for addictions. Lifetime and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of 11 addictions reviewed in other work (Sussman, Lisha & Griffiths, 2011) was the primary focus (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, other/hard drugs, eating, gambling, Internet, shopping, love, sex, exercise, and work). Also, the co-occurrence of two or more of these 11 addictive behaviors was investigated. Finally, the latent class structure of these addictions, and their associations with other measures, was examined. We found that ever and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of these addictions was 79.2% and 61.5%, respectively. Ever and last 30-day co-occurrence of two or more of these addictions was 61.5% and 37.7%, respectively. Latent Class Analysis suggested two groups: a generally Non-addicted Group (67.2% of the sample) and a "Work Hard, Play Hard"-addicted Group that was particularly invested in addiction to love, sex, exercise, the Internet, and work. Supplementary analyses suggested that the single-response type self-reports may be measuring the addictions they intend to measure. We suggest implications of these results for future studies and the development of prevention and treatment programs, though much more validation research is needed on the use of this type of measure.

The effect of atmospheric temperature and pressure on the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction in Kaunas.

Science.gov (United States)

Radišauskas, Ričardas; Vaičiulis, Vidmantas; Ustinavičienė, Rūta; Bernotienė, Gailutė

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of meteorological variables (atmospheric temperature and pressure) on the daily occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). MATERIAL AND METHODS. The study used the daily values of atmospheric temperature and pressure in 2000-2007. The meteorological data were obtained from the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service for Kaunas. The relative risks of event occurrence were computed for 5°C atmospheric temperature and for 10-hPa atmospheric pressure variations by means of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS. The occurrence of AMI and atmospheric temperature showed an inverse linear relationship, while the occurrence of AMI and atmospheric pressure, a positive linear relationship. Among the youngest subjects (25-44 years old), no relationships were detected. Contrary, among the subjects aged 45-64 years and those aged 65 years and older, the occurrence of AMI significantly decreased with higher temperature (P=0.001 and P=0.002, respectively). A decrease in atmospheric temperature by 10ºC reduced the risk of AMI by 8.7% in the age groups of 45-64 and 65 years and older and by 19% in the age group of 25 years and older. Among the first AMI cases, the risk increased by 7.5% in the age group of 45-64-year olds and by 6.4% in the age group of 25-64-year olds. The relationship between atmospheric temperature and pressure, and AMI occurrence was found to be linear but inverse. An increase in atmospheric pressure by 10 hPa resulted in an increase in risk by 4% among the subjects aged 65 years and more and by 3% among the subjects aged 25 years and more. CONCLUSIONS. Atmospheric temperature and pressure variations had the greatest effect on middle-aged and aging subjects (starting from 45 years). At younger age, the effect of such factors on the AMI risk was considerably lower.

Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2015-01-01

In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

Occurrence and risk assessment of population exposed to deoxynivalenol in foods derived from wheat flour in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Milena Veronezi; Pante, Giseli Cristina; Romoli, Jéssica Cristina Zoratto; de Souza, Alexandra Perdigão Maia; Rocha, Gustavo Henrique Oliveira da; Ferreira, Flavio Dias; Feijó, Adriane Lettnin Roll; Moscardi, Salesia Maria Prodócimo; de Paula, Karina Ruaro; Bando, Erika; Nerilo, Samuel Botião; Machinski, Miguel

2018-03-01

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is the most important of the trichothecenes in terms of amounts and occurrence in wheat. This compound was shown to be associated with a glomerulonephropathy involving an increase of immunoglobulin A in humans. This study assessed the occurrence of DON in wheat flour and the exposure of Brazilian teenagers, adults and elderly to this mycotoxin due to intake of wheat flour-based products. DON extraction in wheat flour was carried out by solid phase extraction and the quantification was performed by ultra-high proficiency liquid chromatography with diode-array detection. A total of 77.9% of all samples were positive for DON, with concentrations ranging from 73.50 to 2794.63 µg kg -1 . The intake was calculated for the average and 90th percentile of the contamination levels of DON in foods based-wheat for teenagers, adults and elderly in Brazil, and compared with the provisional maximum tolerable daily intakes (PMTDI). Females of all age groups were exposed to DON at higher levels when compared to males in regard of consumption of breads and pastas. Teenagers were the main consumers of foods derived from wheat flour, with maximum probable daily intakes of 1.28 and 1.20 µg kg -1 b.w. day -1 for females and males, respectively. This population is at an increased risk of exposure to DON due to consumption of wheat flour-based foods in Brazil.

Gestational diabetes mellitus: risk factors development, occurrence, diagnostics and treatment (review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostenko I.V.

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Gestational diabetes is defined as a violation of carbohydrate metabolism resulting in hyperglycemia of varying severity, firstly revealed or developed during the pregnancy. The article presents current data on the occurrence, etiology and pathogenesis of gestational diabetes, as well as methods for screening and diagnostics of disorders of carbohydrate metabolism during pregnancy. It explains the basic principles of diet therapy

Overview of revised measures to prevent malaria transmission by blood transfusion in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Garraud, O; Assal, A; Pelletier, B; Danic, B; Kerleguer, A; David, B; Joussemet, M; de Micco, P

2008-10-01

Plasmodial transmission by blood donation is rare in non-endemic countries, but a very serious complication of blood transfusion. The French national blood service (Etablissement Français du Sang and Centre de Transfusion sanguine des Armees) intended to revise the measures to strengthen blood safety with regard to Plasmodiae as transmissible pathogens. To limit the risk of transmission during infusion, serious additive measures have been taken for more than a decade in France, which is the European country with the highest rate of exposure to imported plasmodial infections or malaria. These measures were revised and strengthened after the occurrence of a lethal transfusion-transmitted infection in 2002, but did not prevent another occurrence in 2006. This report examines the weaknesses of the systems and aims at emphasizing the safety measures already taken and addresses issues to best respond to that risk.

On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strand, T.

1996-02-01

Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers: Guangzhou as a case study in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Feng-Jiao; Pan, Chang-Gui; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Nai-Sheng; Windfeld, Ronja; Salvito, Daniel; Selck, Henriette; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ying, Guang-Guo

2017-07-01

Urban rivers may receive contamination from various sources including point sources like domestic sewage and nonpoint sources (e.g., runoff), resulting in contamination with various chemicals. This study investigated the occurrence of emerging organic contaminants (3 endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), and 17 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs)) in six urban rivers of a representative subtropical city, Guangzhou (southern China). Our results showed that EDCs and personal care products were frequently detected in the water phase and sediment phase. 4-nonylphenol (4-NP) was the most predominant compound with the highest concentration of 5050ng/L in the water phase and 14,400ng/g dry weight (dw) in the sediment. Generally, higher total concentrations of EDCs and PPCPs were detected in the four urban streams compared to the main stream Zhujiang River and the Liuxi River at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae. Higher contamination of EDCs and PPCPs was observed in rivers in urban area; 4-nonylphenol and triclosan showed RQs>1 in >70% of the reported area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk measures on networks and expected utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

2016-01-01

In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

Risk factors for the occurrence of undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type: A case-control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nešić Vladimir

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The incidence rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Serbia is less than one per 100,000 citizens, which classifies it as a region with low incidence for this disease. Objective. The aim of this study was to test some hypotheses of the risk factors for undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type (UCNT in the low incidence population. Methods. A case-control study was used for the research. The study included 45 cases with histopathological diagnosis of UCNT and 90 controls. Cases and the controls were individually matched by sex, age (±3 years, and place of residence (city-village. Data were gathered about sociodemographic characteristics, occupational exposure to harmful agents, habits, diet, personal history, and family history. In the analysis of the data, conditional univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied. Results. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis UCNT was significantly positively associated with 'passive smoking' of tobacco in the family during childhood, frequent consumption of industrially manufactured food additives for enhancing flavour and frequent consumption of white bread. UCNT was significantly negatively associated with frequent consumption of margarine, olive oil and cornbread. Conclusion. In our low incidence population, an independent risk factor for the occurrence of UCNT was 'passive smoking' of tobacco in the family during childhood, use of industrially manufactured food with additives for enhancing flavour and consumption of white bread. Multicentric study enrolling a greater number of cases would be desirable.

Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verbeke Sven

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of emerging contaminants in urban watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Xuelian; Lutz, Alex; Carroll, Rosemary; Keteles, Kristen; Dahlin, Kenneth; Murphy, Mark; Nguyen, David

2018-06-01

The widespread occurrence of natural and synthetic organic chemicals in surface waters can cause ecological risks and human health concerns. This study measured a suite of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in water samples collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 8 around the Denver, Colorado, metropolitan area. The results showed that 109 of 144 analyzed pharmaceutical compounds, 42 of 55 analyzed waste-indicator compounds (e.g., flame retardants, hormones, and personal care products), and 39 of 72 analyzed pesticides were detected in the water samples collected monthly between April and November in both 2014 and 2015. Pharmaceutical compounds were most abundant in the surface waters and their median concentrations were measured up to a few hundred nanograms per liter. The CEC concentrations varied depending on sampling locations and seasons. The primary source of CECs was speculated to be wastewater effluent. The CEC concentrations were correlated to streamflow volume and showed significant seasonal effects. The CECs were less persistent during spring runoff season compared with baseflow season at most sampling sites. These results are useful for providing baseline data for surface CEC monitoring and assessing the environmental risks and potential human exposure to CECs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Management in Public Procurement Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Manea

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Public procurement represents an important part of the current economy reality. Throughout the procurement process, due to the effect of the interaction among the components of the public procurement system, certain actions with significant negative effects on its optimal operation may occur. Risks may turn into certainty either because of a simple error in the development and administration of the procurement process, or because of a deliberate deviation from the existing legal provisions. Therefore, there is an imperative for the implementation of certain risk-avoiding measures, as well as of measures aiming to reduce their negative effects in case of their occurrence.

Cyanotoxins: producing organisms, occurrence, toxicity, mechanism of action and human health toxicological risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Buratti, Franca M; Manganelli, Maura; Vichi, Susanna; Stefanelli, Mara; Scardala, Simona; Testai, Emanuela; Funari, Enzo

2017-03-01

Cyanobacteria were present on the earth 3.5 billion years ago; since then they have colonized almost all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. They produce a high number of bioactive molecules, among which some are cyanotoxins. Cyanobacterial growth at high densities, forming blooms, is increasing in extension and frequency, following anthropogenic activities and climate changes, giving rise to some concern for human health and animal life exposed to cyanotoxins. Numerous cases of lethal poisonings have been associated with cyanotoxins ingestion in wild animal and livestock. In humans few episodes of lethal or severe human poisonings have been recorded after acute or short-term exposure, but the repeated/chronic exposure to low cyanotoxin levels remains a critical issue. The properties of the most frequently detected cyanotoxins (namely, microcystins, nodularins, cylindrospermopsin and neurotoxins) are here critically reviewed, describing for each toxin the available information on producing organisms, biosynthesis/genetic and occurrence, with a focus on the toxicological profile (including kinetics, acute systemic toxicity, mechanism and mode of action, local effects, repeated toxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, reproductive toxicity; human health effects and epidemiological studies; animal poisoning) with the derivation of health-based values and considerations on the risks for human health.

Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

2008-01-01

Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

Nonreciprocal and Reciprocal Dating Violence and Injury Occurrence among Urban Youth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swahn, Monica H

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: Dating violence is a significant health problem among youth that leads to adverse health outcomes, including injuries. Reciprocal violence (perpetrated by both partners is associated with increased injury in adults, but very little is known about the prevalence and context for reciprocal violence, as well as injury rates, among youth. We sought to determine the prevalence and scope of reciprocal dating violence and injury occurrence among urban youth in a high-risk community. Methods: Analyses were based on data from the Youth Violence Survey, conducted in 2004, and administered to over 80% of public school students in grades 7, 9, 11, and 12 (N=4,131 in a high-risk, urban school district. The current analyses were restricted to those who reported dating in the past year and who also reported any dating violence (n=1,158. Dating violence was categorized as reciprocal (the participant reported both violence perpetration and victimization and non-reciprocal (the participant report either violence perpetration or victimization, but not both. Results: Dating violence reciprocity varied by sex. Girls who reported any dating violence were more likely to report reciprocal dating violence (50.4% than were boys (38.9%. However, reciprocity did not vary by race/ethnicity or grade level. Reciprocal dating violence was more common among participants who reported more frequent violence experiences. Reciprocal violence was also associated with greater injury occurrences relative to non-reciprocal relationships (10.1% versus 1.2%. Conclusion: Reciprocal dating violence is common among adolescents and leads more often to injury outcomes. In particular, relationships in which boys report reciprocal violence against their partner appear to lead to more frequent injury occurrences. These findings underscore the importance of addressing dating violence and factors that increase risk for reciprocal violence and therefore exacerbate injury occurrence

Occurrence, sources, and fate of pharmaceuticals in aquatic environment and soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, W.C.

2014-01-01

With the rapid economic development, a better living condition leads to longer life expectancy, which increased the total population, in particular the elderly group. It may result in increase in the demand of pharmaceuticals for people in domestic use or in hospital. Although most sewage treatment plants or waste water treatment plantsmet the regulatory requirement, there are still many pharmaceuticals removed incompletely and thus discharged to the environment. Therefore, the pharmaceuticals residue draws the public concern because they might cause adverse effects on the organism even human beings. Recently, many studies have published on the source and occurrence as well as the fate of pharmaceuticals all over the world. This paper summarized and reviewed the recent studies on the sources, occurrence, fate and the effects of the most common pharmaceuticals. Finally, it gave the suggestion and risk management for controlling the pharmaceuticals. - Highlights: • The sources of pharmaceutical residuals are studied. • Occurrence and fate of pharmaceutical in environment are studied. • Risk management and recommendation are provided on pharmaceutical pollution. - Concentration of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment is lower than in effluent of sewage treatment plants in which carbamazepine is found frequently in soil and water body

Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

1999-01-01

A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

Environmental occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Black, D.G.

1995-06-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section.

Environmental occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Black, D.G.

1995-01-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section

[Prevention of shoulder dystocia risk factors before delivery].

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, F

2015-12-01

To determine whether it is possible to prevent the occurrence of risk factors for shoulder dystocia before or during pregnancy. The PubMed database, the Cochrane Library and the recommendations from the French and foreign obstetrical societies or colleges have been consulted. Studied measures were exercise before or during pregnancy, dietary management, and gestational diabetes management in obese and non-obese patients. No study has proven that the correction of these risk factors (except gestational diabetes) would reduce the risk of shoulder dystocia. In the general population, physical exercise is recommended either before or during pregnancy to reduce the risk of gestational diabetes (physical activity before pregnancy) (grade B), fetal macrosomia (grade C) or maternal weight gain during pregnancy (grade C). No dietary regimen is recommended to reduce these issues (grade B). In overweight or obese (body mass index [BMI]>25), physical activity coupled with dietary management is recommended (grade A) because it reduces fetal macrosomia (EL1). In addition, it allows a modest reduction in maternal weight gain during pregnancy (EL2), but did have an effect on the occurrence of gestational diabetes (EL1). In case of gestational diabetes, diabetes care is recommended (diabetic diet, glucose monitoring, insulin if needed) (grade A) as it reduces the risk of macrosomia and shoulder dystocia (EL1). The recommended weight gain during pregnancy is 11.5 kg to 16 kg for normal BMI patients (grade B). Obese patients should be aware of the importance of controlling their weight gain during pregnancy (professional consensus). It is recommended that patients regain their pre-conception weight, and ideally a BMI between 18 and 25 kg/m(2), 6 months postpartum (grade B) to reduce the risk of gestational diabetes and macrosomia in a subsequent pregnancy (EL2). Physical activity is recommended before and during pregnancy to reduce the occurrence of risk factors for shoulder dystocia

The effect of cephalosporin usage on the occurrence of ESCs producing E. coli in pig herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalhoff Andersen, Vibe; Jensen, Vibeke Frøkjær; Agersø, Yvonne

in 19 pig herds which have had five to fourteen prescriptions of ceph. and 20 pig herds without prescribed ceph. in a previous 12 month period. The 39 herds were all integrated and represent typical Danish pig farms. The occurrence of ESCs producing E. coli in the herds were tested in a total of 9...... pooled samples per herd. A pig herd was considered positive if one or more of the nine samples contained ESCs producing E. coli. Initially, the association between usages of ceph. and occurrence of ESCs producing E. coli in the pig herds was analyzed using logistic regression, and the effect was adjusted...... of ESCs producing E. coli was estimated as risk ratio(RR). The results showed that consumption of ceph. increased the risk of occurrence of ESCs producing E. coli significantly with a RR of 5 (95% CI: 2-11). This demonstrates that ceph. usage significant affect the occurrence of ESCs resistance...

Occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products and associated environmental risks in the central and lower Yangtze river, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chenxi; Huang, Xiaolong; Witter, Jason D; Spongberg, Alison L; Wang, Kexiong; Wang, Ding; Liu, Jiantong

2014-08-01

Pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) residues are being highlighted around the world as of emerging concern in surface waters. Here the occurrence of PPCPs in the central and lower Yangtze River, along with four large freshwater lakes within the river basin (Dongting, Poyang, Tai, and Chao) was reported. Fifteen out of twenty selected PPCPs were detected in the collected surface water samples. Caffeine, paraxanthine, sulfamethazine, and clindamycin were detected with 100 percent frequency in the Yangtze River. In the river, the highest average concentration was observed for erythromycin (296 ng L(-1)), followed by caffeine (142 ng L(-1)) and paraxanthine (41 ng L(-1)). In the four lakes, total PPCP concentrations were much higher in the Chao (1547 ng L(-1)) and Tai (1087 ng L(-1)) lakes compared to the Poyang (108 ng L(-1)) and Dongting (137 ng L(-1)) lakes. Lincomycin and clindamycin were most abundant in the lakes, especially in the Tai Lake. Environmental risk assessment for the worst case scenario was assessed using calculated risk quotients, and indicates a high environmental risk of erythromycin and clarithromycin in the Yangtze River, clarithromycin in the Chao Lake, and clindamycin in the Tai Lake. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyponatremia independent of osteoporosis is associated with fracture occurrence.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kinsella, Sinead

2010-02-01

Mild hyponatremia has traditionally been considered benign, but it may be associated with gait and attention deficits and an increased risk of falls that may result in fracture. A retrospective study was conducted to quantify the association of hyponatremia with fracture occurrence and to examine whether this relationship is independent of osteoporosis.

Decline in temperature and humidity increases the occurrence of influenza in cold climate

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Both temperature and humidity may independently or jointly contribute to the risk of influenza infections. We examined the relations between the level and decrease of temperature, humidity and the risk of influenza A and B virus infections in a subarctic climate. Methods We conducted a case-crossover study among military conscripts (n = 892) seeking medical attention due to respiratory symptoms during their military training period and identified 66 influenza A and B cases by PCR or serology. Meteorological data such as measures of average and decline in ambient temperature and absolute humidity (AH) during the three preceding days of the onset (hazard period) and two reference periods, prior and after the onset were obtained. Results The average temperature preceding the influenza onset was −6.8 ± 5.6°C and AH 3.1 ± 1.3 g/m3. A decrease in both temperature and AH during the hazard period increased the occurrence of influenza so that a 1°C decrease in temperature and 0.5 g decrease per m3 in AH increased the estimated risk by 11% [OR 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20)] and 58% [OR 1.58 (1.28 to 1.96)], respectively. The occurrence of influenza infections was positively associated with both the average temperature [OR 1.10 per 1°C (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.19)] and AH [OR 1.25 per g/m3 (1.05 to 1.49)] during the hazard period prior to onset. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that a decrease rather than low temperature and humidity per se during the preceding three days increase the risk of influenza episodes in a cold climate. PMID:24678699

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

OpenAIRE

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

Experimental study on occurrence-time ratio measurements of air entrainment in a suction sump

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inagaki, K; Funaki, J; Hirata, K

2009-01-01

In order to get accurate measurements of air entrainment in a suction sump, we design some new simple bubble sensors, which can detect the existence of air bubbles inside a suction pipe with no disturbances by the sensors and with a fine spatial resolution. We force on an intermittency factor γ, that is, an occurrence-time ratio of the air entrainment, and compare the result by the present sensor with those by conventional two methods; namely, visual and auditory ones. As a result, we show the criteria which specify lower-accuracy conditions in the conventional methods. By the visual method, the accuracy of the γ becomes low, when γ is less than 0.05. By the auditory method, the accuracy of γ becomes low, when the submergence depth S of the suction pipe is close to the critical one S c .

On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

An Investigation of Biases and Framing Effects for Risk Analysis: An Information Technology Context

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Stuart A.

2012-01-01

An elusive and problematic theme of risk management has been managers' ability to effectively measure information technology (IT) risk in terms of degree of impact and probability of occurrence. The background of this problem delves deep into the rational understanding of probability, expected value, economic behavior, and subjective judgment.…

The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Stancu

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongxi Zhou

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

1998-01-01

The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

Interactions between Climate, Land Use and Vegetation Fire Occurrences in El Salvador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dolors Armenteras

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Vegetation burning is a global environmental threat that results in local ecological, economic and social impacts but also has large-scale implications for global change. The burning is usually a result of interacting factors such as climate, land use and vegetation type. Despite its importance as a factor shaping ecological, economic and social processes, countries highly vulnerable to climate change in Central America, such as El Salvador, lack an assessment of this complex relationship. In this study we rely on remotely sensed measures of the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI and thermal anomaly detections by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor to identify vegetation cover changes and fire occurrences. We also use land use data and rainfall observations derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data to determine the spatial and temporal variability and interactions of these factors. Our results indicate a highly marked seasonality of fire occurrence linked to the climatic variability with a peak of fire occurrences in 2004 and 2013. Low vegetation indices occurred in March–April, around two months after the driest period of the year (December–February, corresponding to months with high detection of fires. Spatially, 65.6% of the fires were recurrent and clustered in agriculture/cropland areas and within 1 km of roads (70% and only a 4.7% of fires detected were associated with forests. Remaining forests in El Salvador deserve more attention due to underestimated consequences of forest fires. The identification of these clear patterns can be used as a baseline to better shape management of fire regimes and support decision making in this country. Recommendations resulting from this work include focusing on fire risk models and agriculture fires and long-term ecological and economic consequences of those. Furthermore, El Salvador will need to include agricultural fires in the

The role of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan-Shui Yang

Full Text Available The impact of pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC occurrence and prognosis is complex and unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the association between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis.We searched PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from their inception to January, 2011 for prospective epidemiological studies assessing the effect of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence, mortality outcomes, cancer recurrence, and treatment-related complications. Study-specific risk estimates were combined by using fixed effect or random effect models.The database search generated a total of 28 prospective studies that met the inclusion criteria. Among these studies, 14 reported the risk of HCC incidence and 6 studies reported risk of HCC specific mortality. Six studies provided a total of 8 results for all-cause mortality in HCC patients. Four studies documented HCC recurrence risks and 2 studies reported risks for hepatic decomposition occurrence in HCC patients. Meta-analysis indicated that pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC incidence [meta-relative risk (RR = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.15-2.27] and HCC-specific mortality (meta-RR = 1.88, 95%CI: 1.39-2.55 compared with their non-DM counterparts. HCC patients with pre-existing DM had a 38% increased (95% CI: 1.13-1.48 risk of death from all-causes and 91% increased (95%CI: 1.41-2.57 risk of hepatic decomposition occurrence compared to those without DM. In DM patients, the meta-RR for HCC recurrence-free survival was 1.93(95%CI: 1.12-3.33 compared with non-diabetic patients.The findings from the current meta-analysis suggest that DM may be both associated with elevated risks of both HCC incidence and mortality. Furthermore, HCC patients with pre-existing diabetes have a poorer prognosis relative to their

Eligibility for interventions, co-occurrence and risk factors for unhealthy behaviours in patients consulting for routine primary care: results from the Pre-Empt study

OpenAIRE

Randell, Elizabeth; Pickles, Timothy; Simpson, Sharon A.; Spanou, Clio; McCambridge, Jim; Hood, Kerenza; Butler, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Background:\\ud Smoking, excessive drinking, lack of exercise and a poor diet remain key causes of premature morbidity and mortality globally, yet it is not clear what proportion of patients attending for routine primary care are eligible for interventions about these behaviours, the extent to which they co-occur within individuals, and which individuals are at greatest risk for multiple unhealthy behaviours. The aim of the trial was to examine ‘intervention eligibility’ and co-occurrence of t...

The effects of time of disease occurrence, milk yield, and body condition on fertility of dairy cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Loeffler, S H; de Vries, M J; Schukken, Y H

1999-12-01

The associations between occurrence of diseases, milk yield, and body condition score on conception risk after first artificial insemination (AI) were analyzed in an observational study on a convenience sample of 43 farms participating in a herd health program. Data were taken from 9369 lactations, from 4382 cows inseminated between 20 and 180 d in milk from 1990 to 1996. Two logistic regression models, one containing data from all lactations and a subset containing data from 1762 lactations with body condition scoring, were used to determine pregnancy risk at first AI. The effects of herd deviation in test-day milk yield, body condition score loss, and milk fat to protein ratio changes in early lactation were significant predictors of pregnancy risk, independent of disease; days in milk; farm; and seasonal factors. Three different methods of disease parameterization (incidence rates, binomial classes dependent on the interval in days since last occurrence with respect to AI, and a linear variable weighted for this interval) produced similar results. Metritis, cystic ovarian disease, lameness, and mastitis gave odds ratios for pregnancy risk ranging from 0.35 to 1.15, largely dependent on the interval in days from final disease occurrence to first AI. Displaced abomasum, milk fever, and retained fetal membranes resulted in odds ratios for pregnancy risk of 0.25, 0.85, and 0.55, respectively. These diseases showed little relationship between fertility and the number of days since last occurrence. Results of this study confirm the negative effects of milk yield, body score condition loss, and disease on dairy cow fertility. The effects of some diseases on first service conception were strongly dependent on the interval since last disease occurrence. This was especially valid for clinical mastitis, which has an extremely weak effect on conception if occurring prior to AI and is associated with > 50% reduction in pregnancy risk if occurring in the 3 wk directly after

Relationship between food habits and tooth erosion occurrence in Malaysian University students.

Science.gov (United States)

Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Lee, Mei Tee; Ali, Nor Hazirah Muhammad; Samynathan, Selvamary; Jie, Ying Phor; Ismail, Noor Hasnani; Bibiana Hui Ying, Yong; Wei Seng, Yeo; Yahya, Nurul Asyikin

2012-04-01

Tooth erosion is a growing dental problem; however, the role of diet in the aetiology of tooth erosion is unclear. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the association between tooth erosion occurrence and the consumption of acidic foods and drinks among undergraduate university students. A total of 150 undergraduate students (33 males and 117 females) aged 19 to 24 years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia participated in this study. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination was used to assess the occurrence of tooth erosion. Information regarding dental hygiene practices, usual dietary habits, and consumption of acidic foods and drinks was obtained through a structured questionnaire. In all, 68% of subjects had tooth erosion. Subjects who reported having received information about healthy eating were less likely to have tooth erosion (χ(2) [1, N = 150] = 7.328, P = 0.007). The frequencies of milk (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.13-0.67) and tea/coffee (adjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.19-0.95) consumption were negatively associated with tooth erosion. Dental hygiene practice, the frequency and amount of acidic food and drink intake, and body mass index classification were not significantly associated with the risk of tooth erosion (P > 0.05). A high prevalence of tooth erosion was observed among this group of students. Preventive measures, such as dietary advice and increased consumption of milk at a younger age, may reduce the occurrence of tooth erosion among this age group.

A probabilistic model for snow avalanche occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Perona, P.; Miescher, A.; Porporato, A.

2009-04-01

Avalanche hazard forecasting is an important issue in relation to the protection of urbanized environments, ski resorts and of ski-touring alpinists. A critical point is to predict the conditions that trigger the snow mass instability determining the onset and the size of avalanches. On steep terrains the risk of avalanches is known to be related to preceding consistent snowfall events and to subsequent changes in the local climatic conditions. Regression analysis has shown that avalanche occurrence indeed correlates to the amount of snow fallen in consecutive three snowing days and to the state of the settled snow at the ground. Moreover, since different type of avalanches may occur as a result of the interactions of different factors, the process of snow avalanche formation is inherently complex and with some degree of unpredictability. For this reason, although several models assess the risk of avalanche by accounting for all the involved processes with a great detail, a high margin of uncertainty invariably remains. In this work, we explicitly describe such an unpredictable behaviour with an intrinsic noise affecting the processes leading snow instability. Eventually, this sets the basis for a minimalist stochastic model, which allows us to investigate the avalanche dynamics and its statistical properties. We employ a continuous time process with stochastic jumps (snowfalls), deterministic decay (snowmelt and compaction) and state dependent avalanche occurrence (renewals) as a minimalist model for the determination of avalanche size and related intertime occurrence. The physics leading to avalanches is simplified to the extent where only meteorological data and terrain data are necessary to estimate avalanche danger. We explore the analytical formulation of the process and the properties of the probability density function of the avalanche process variables. We also discuss what is the probabilistic link between avalanche size and preceding snowfall event and

A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

2007-01-01

.... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

Positive Association of Fibroadenomatoid Change with HER2-Negative Invasive Breast Cancer: A Co-Occurrence Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaqin Chen

Full Text Available Risk assessment of a benign breast disease/lesion (BBD for invasive breast cancer (IBC is typically done through a longitudinal study. For an infrequently-reported BBD, the shortage of occurrence data alone is a limiting factor to conducting such a study. Here we present an approach based on co-occurrence analysis, to help address this issue. We focus on fibroadenomatoid change (FAC, an under-studied BBD, as our preliminary analysis has suggested its previously unknown significant co-occurrence with IBC.A cohort of 1667 female patients enrolled in the Clinical Breast Care Project was identified. A single experienced breast pathologist reviewed all pathology slides for each case and recorded all observed lesions, including FAC. Fibroadenoma (FA was studied for comparison since FAC had been speculated to be an immature FA. FA and Fibrocystic Changes (FCC were used for method validation since they have been comprehensively studied. Six common IBC and BBD risk/protective factors were also studied. Co-occurrence analyses were performed using logistic regression models.Common risk/protective factors were associated with FA, FCC, and IBC in ways consistent with the literature in general, and they were associated with FAC, FA, and FCC in distinct patterns. Age was associated with FAC in a bell-shape curve so that middle-aged women were more likely to have FAC. We report for the first time that FAC is positively associated with IBC with odds ratio (OR depending on BMI (OR = 6.78, 95%CI = 3.43-13.42 at BMI25 kg/m2. This association is only significant with HER2-negative IBC subtypes.We conclude that FAC is a candidate risk factor for HER2-negative IBCs, and it is a distinct disease from FA. Co-occurrence analysis can be used for initial assessment of the risk for IBC from a BBD, which is vital to the study of infrequently-reported BBDs.

Positive Association of Fibroadenomatoid Change with HER2-Negative Invasive Breast Cancer: A Co-Occurrence Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kovatich, Albert J.; Hooke, Jeffrey A.; Liu, Jianfang; Kvecher, Leonid; Fantacone-Campbell, J. Leigh; Mitchell, Edith P.; Rui, Hallgeir; Shriver, Craig D.; Hu, Hai

2015-01-01

Background Risk assessment of a benign breast disease/lesion (BBD) for invasive breast cancer (IBC) is typically done through a longitudinal study. For an infrequently-reported BBD, the shortage of occurrence data alone is a limiting factor to conducting such a study. Here we present an approach based on co-occurrence analysis, to help address this issue. We focus on fibroadenomatoid change (FAC), an under-studied BBD, as our preliminary analysis has suggested its previously unknown significant co-occurrence with IBC. Methods A cohort of 1667 female patients enrolled in the Clinical Breast Care Project was identified. A single experienced breast pathologist reviewed all pathology slides for each case and recorded all observed lesions, including FAC. Fibroadenoma (FA) was studied for comparison since FAC had been speculated to be an immature FA. FA and Fibrocystic Changes (FCC) were used for method validation since they have been comprehensively studied. Six common IBC and BBD risk/protective factors were also studied. Co-occurrence analyses were performed using logistic regression models. Results Common risk/protective factors were associated with FA, FCC, and IBC in ways consistent with the literature in general, and they were associated with FAC, FA, and FCC in distinct patterns. Age was associated with FAC in a bell-shape curve so that middle-aged women were more likely to have FAC. We report for the first time that FAC is positively associated with IBC with odds ratio (OR) depending on BMI (OR = 6.78, 95%CI = 3.43-13.42 at BMI25 kg/m2). This association is only significant with HER2-negative IBC subtypes. Conclusions We conclude that FAC is a candidate risk factor for HER2-negative IBCs, and it is a distinct disease from FA. Co-occurrence analysis can be used for initial assessment of the risk for IBC from a BBD, which is vital to the study of infrequently-reported BBDs. PMID:26098961

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of

A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

1987-01-01

Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

Prevaccination epidemiology of herpes zoster in Denmark: Quantification of occurrence and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Sigrun A J; Vestergaard, Mogens; Baggesen, Lisbeth M; Pedersen, Lars; Schønheyder, Henrik C; Sørensen, Henrik T

2017-10-09

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a vaccine-preventable disease caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus. Unfortunately, formulation of recommendations on routine immunization is hampered by a lack of data on disease burden, since most countries do not record cases of HZ in the general population. We developed and validated an algorithm to identify HZ based on routinely collected registry data and used it to quantify HZ occurrence and risk factors in Denmark prior to marketing of the HZ vaccine. We included patients aged ≥40years with a first-time systemic Acyclovir, Valacyclovir, or Famciclovir prescription or a hospital-based HZ diagnosis in the Danish nationwide health registries during 1997-2013. In a validation substudy (n=176), we computed the proportion of persons with HZ among patients who redeemed antiviral prescriptions. In a cohort study, we computed age-specific rates of HZ (45,297,258 person-years). In a case-control study, we then computed odds ratios (ORs) for common chronic diseases and immunosuppressive factors among HZ cases (n=189,025) vs. matched population controls (n=945,111). Medical record review confirmed HZ in 87% (95% confidence interval: 79-93%) of persons ≥40years who dispensed antivirals at doses recommended for HZ. HZ rates increased from 2.15/1000 person-years in 40-year-olds to 9.45/1000 person-years in 95-year-olds. Rates were highest in women. HZ was diagnosed during hospitalization among 3.5%. As expected, persons with severe immunosuppressive conditions had the highest ORs of HZ (between 1.82 and 4.12), but various autoimmune diseases, asthma, chronic kidney disease, and inhaled glucocorticoids were also associated with increased ORs (between 1.06 and 1.64). This algorithm is a valid tool for identifying HZ in routine healthcare data. It shows that HZ is common in Denmark, especially in patients with certain chronic conditions. Prioritized vaccination of such high-risk patients might be an option in countries considering

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

Science.gov (United States)

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

Risk-based performance indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

1987-01-01

The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

Occurrence, Seasonal Variation and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in Qingcaosha Reservoir

OpenAIRE

Yue Jiang; Cong Xu; Xiaoyu Wu; Yihan Chen; Wei Han; Karina Yew-Hoong Gin; Yiliang He

2018-01-01

Qingcaosha Reservoir is an important drinking water source in Shanghai. The occurrence of five groups of antibiotics was investigated in the surface water of this reservoir over a one-year period. Seventeen antibiotics were selected in this study based on their significant usage in China. Of these antibiotics, 16 were detected, while oxytetracycline was not detected in any sampling site. The detected frequency of tylosin was only 47.92% while the other 15 antibiotics were above 81.25%. The do...

Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco

2017-05-25

Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the

Earthquake occurrence as stochastic event: (1) theoretical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basili, A.; Basili, M.; Cagnetti, V.; Colombino, A.; Jorio, V.M.; Mosiello, R.; Norelli, F.; Pacilio, N.; Polinari, D.

1977-01-01

The present article intends liaisoning the stochastic approach in the description of earthquake processes suggested by Lomnitz with the experimental evidence reached by Schenkova that the time distribution of some earthquake occurrence is better described by a Negative Bionomial distribution than by a Poisson distribution. The final purpose of the stochastic approach might be a kind of new way for labeling a given area in terms of seismic risk.

The risk perception gap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frech, E.

1995-01-01

Most members of the public view the risks of nuclear power as uniquely hazardous. A survey in 1993 found that Canadians rank nuclear waste as the eleventh highest risk to their health. The trouble is that the public are not simply misinformed; rather, they view risk as something different from the product of probability of occurrence of an event multiplied by the measure of its harmful consequences. Among the 30 to 40 factors that influence public perception of risk, or acceptance of technology, are some that the scientific and technical community has hitherto failed to heed. Many of these factors can in fact be accommodated in the design, development and public presentation of nuclear projects. Such an accommodation of the public's views would involve dealing with factors like voluntariness, controllability, reversibility, equity and fairness, benefits, and trust in institutions. 9 refs

Investigation of PPCPs in wastewater treatment plants in Greece: occurrence, removal and environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosma, Christina I; Lambropoulou, Dimitra A; Albanis, Triantafyllos A

2014-01-01

In the present work, an extensive study on the presence of eighteen pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in eight wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) of Greece has been conducted. The study covered four sampling periods over 1-year, where samples (influents; effluents) from eight WWTPs of various cities in Greece were taken. All WWTPs investigated are equipped with conventional activated sludge treatment. A common pre-concentration step based on SPE was applied, followed by LC-UV/Vis-ESI-MS. Further confirmation of positive findings was accomplished by using LC coupled to a high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The results showed the occurrence of all target compounds in the wastewater samples with concentrations up to 96.65 μg/L. Paracetamol, caffeine, trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole, carbamazepine, diclofenac and salicylic acid were the dominant compounds, while tolfenamic acid, fenofibrate and simvastatin were the less frequently detected compounds with concentrations in effluents below the LOQ. The removal efficiencies showed that many WWTPs were unable to effectively remove most of the PPCPs investigated. Finally, the study provides an assessment of the environmental risk posed by their presence in wastewaters by means of the risk quotient (RQ). RQs were more than unity for various compounds in the effluents expressing possible threat for the aquatic environment. Triclosan was found to be the most critical compound in terms of contribution and environmental risk, concluding that it should be seriously considered as a candidate for regulatory monitoring and prioritization on a European scale on the basis of realistic PNECs. The results of the extensive monitoring study contributed to a better insight on PPCPs in Greece and their presence in influent and effluent wastewaters. Furthermore, the unequivocal identification of two transformation products of trimethoprim in real wastewaters by using the advantages of the LTQ Orbitrap capabilities

Environmental occurrence of arsenic in Colombia: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, David L.; Latorre, Sergio; Castillo, Elianna; Brandão, Pedro F.B.

2014-01-01

The international literature on the presence of arsenic (As) in Latin America does not disclose the true magnitude of the presence of As in Colombia. In this paper, we summarize the literature on As occurrence in Colombia. The data reveal that As is present in matrices such as soil, sediments and water and in the food chain. Some of the As concentrations exceed the limits specified by national and international regulations. Arsenic higher concentrations are associated with mining regions (e.g., soils, up to 148 mg/kg; sediments, up to 1400 mg/kg) and agricultural areas (e.g., vegetables, up to 5.40 mg/kg; irrigation water, up to 255 μg/L), and underscore the potential human and environmental risks associated with the presence of As in the country. This review highlights the importance of focusing research on understanding the occurrence, origin and distribution of As in Colombia to better understand its environmental and public health impact. -- Highlights: • Information about arsenic (As) studies in Colombia is provided. • Occurrence of As in Colombia. • Compilation help to increase knowledge of As presence in Latin America. • Need for more research on the occurrence, origin, distribution, speciation and remediation of As in Colombia. -- This review communicates the untold story of arsenic in Colombia and draws attention to the need for more rigorous research on the metalloid. It also contributes to the information available on As in Latin America

Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

2017-10-31

This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

Municipalities of higher vulnerability to Sylvatic Yellow Fever occurrence in the São Paulo State, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Stramandinoli Moreno

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Until 1999 the endemic cases of Sylvatic Yellow Fever were located in the states of northern, midwestern and pre-Amazon regions. Since then, the disease progressively expanded its territory of occurrence, cases being registered beyond the traditional boundaries of endemism. The São Paulo State is considered to be part of this context, since after decades without registration of autochthonous cases of the disease, it reported, in 2000 and 2008-2009, epizootic occurrence in non-human primates and 30 cases in humans. Facts like these, added to the increase in incidences of serious adverse effects resulting from the Yellow Fever vaccination, have highlighted the importance of defining priority municipalities for vaccination against the disease in the state. Two groups of municipalities, some affected and some non-affected by YF, were compared for environmental variables related to the eco-epidemiology of the disease according to literature. The Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA was used to pinpoint the factor able to differentiate the two groups of municipalities and define the levels of risk. The southeast region of the São Paulo State was considered to be the area with a higher number of municipalities classified as high risk and should be considered a priority for the application of prevention measures against Yellow Fever.

Significance and occurrence of fumonisins from Aspergillus niger

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mogensen, Jesper Mølgaard

Fumonisins is a well-studied group of mycotoxins, mainly produced in maize by Fusarium species. However with the recent discovery of a fumonisin production by Aspergillus niger, other food commodities are at risk, since A. niger is a ubiquitous contaminant of many food and feed products....... The objective of this thesis was to determine the significance and occurrence of fumonisins from Aspergillus niger in food, the frequency of fumonisin production in A. niger isolates, as well as studies of the effect of physiological factors affecting fumonisin production. Major findings in this context have...... been the ocumentation of the production of fumonisins in raisins and peanuts, and occurrence of A. niger derived fumonisins in retail wine and raisins. Physiological investigations have demonstrated that fumonisin production in A. niger occurs at temperatures between 20-37 °C. Three water activity...

Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

2014-04-15

Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

1985-01-01

There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

Detailed predictive mapping of acid sulfate soil occurrence using electromagnetic induction data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beucher, Amélie; Boman, A; Mattbäck, S

impact through the resulting corrosion of concrete and steel infrastructures, or their poor geotechnical qualities. Therefore, mapping acid sulfate soil occurrence constitutes a key step to target the strategic areas for subsequent environmental risk management and mitigation. Conventional mapping (i...... obtained from a EM38 proximal sensor enabled the refined mapping of acid sulfate soils over a field (Huang et al. 2014). The present study aims at developing an efficient and reliable method for the detailed predictive mapping of acid sulfate soil occurrence in a field located in western Finland. Different...

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

1983-01-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

Occurrence of Toxoplasma gondii and risk factors for infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in the Triângulo Mineiro region, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabielle Marques-Santos

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Triângulo Mineiro region from Minas Gerais state, is an important meat-exporting region of Brazil and data about Toxoplasma gondii infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in this area are scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of T. gondii in swine and establish the risk factors associated with the infection. Samples were collected from 600 pigs raised under intensive system in farms located at three different counties (Carmo do Paranaíba, Patrocínio and Perdizes. The samples were submitted to indirect hemagglutination antibody test with dilution of 1:32 and to indirect immunofluorescence antibody test with a cutoff of 1:64. The occurrence of positive pig was 3.3% (n=20 and 51.8% (n=311 respectively. A significant difference was observed between toxoplasmatic infection and factors such as lineage, animal origin, size of the farm, collective raising with others species, presence of rodents and type of water offered (p≤0.05. There was no difference between gender and the farm goals. The results demonstrated an occurrence of anti-T.gondii antibodies higher than expected for intensive pig raising system on the studied area, which could indicate a possible sanitary management problem on the studied proprieties. Improvements on the raising techniques are necessary to reduce T. gondii infection sources.

Influence of hormonal contraceptives and the occurrence of stroke: integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adman Câmara Soares Lima

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To identify scientific evidence regarding the influence of hormonal contraceptive use and the occurrence of stroke. Method: Integrative review of the literature, through database search using the descriptors "contraceptive agents", "contraceptive devices", "contraceptives, Oral" and "Stroke". Original studies in Portuguese, Spanish and English, published in full and available online were included. Studies that did not answer our guiding questions and duplicated studies were excluded. Results: Women using combined oral contraceptives have higher risk of stroke, even with a lower hormonal dosage and different types of progestogen, regardless of the duration of use. The use of contraceptives associated with smoking, hypertension, migraine, hypercholesterolemia, obesity and sedentary lifestyle increases the chance of stroke. Contraceptive patch and vaginal ring are associated to increased risk. Conclusion: Use of combined hormonal contraceptives, except for the injectable and the transdermal ones, increases the chance of occurrence of the event. Progestogen-only contraceptives were considered safe.

Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

1997-01-01

A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gaitan Sabogal, S.; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Rogger, M; Aksoy, H; Kooy, M

2015-01-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Janulis, Patrick

2014-03-01

Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Myeloperoxidase-positive cell infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa is related to body fatness and is predictive of adenoma occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, F; Boarino, V; Bertani, A; Merighi, A; Pedroni, M; Rossi, G; Mancini, S; Sena, P; Benatti, P; Roncucci, L

2017-06-01

Body fatness is a risk factor for colorectal cancer, and promotes an inflammatory environment. Indeed, inflammation in normal colorectal mucosa may be a factor linking body fatness to colorectal carcinogenesis. In this study, we evaluated myeloperoxidase (MPO)-positive cells infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa as a marker of cancer-promoting inflammation in overweight and obese subjects. One hundred and three subjects with normal colonoscopy entered the study. Waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) were measured, and MPO-positive cells on histological sections of biopsies of normal colorectal mucosa were counted under a light microscope. The occurrence of adenomas was then evaluated on follow-up colonoscopies. Mean MPO-positive cell count (±s.e.m.) was higher in subject with a WC equal or above the obesity cutoff values according to gender (2.63±0.20 vs 2.06±0.18, P=0.03), and in subjects with BMI equal or above 25 kg m - 2 (2.54±0.18 vs 1.97±0.20, P=0.03). A Cox proportional hazard model showed that mean MPO-positive cell count in normal colorectal mucosa was the only factor independently related to occurrence of adenomas in follow-up colonoscopies. Though preliminary, these results show that MPO-positive cell infiltration in normal colorectal mucosa is related with body fatness, as evaluated by WC and BMI, and it may be considered a useful and simple marker to estimate adenoma occurrence risk.

RISK CONCEPT AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gamze CAN

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Basic aim of an epidemiological study is to quantify the association between the exposure and the outcome of interest. To achieve this, the incidence of disease in a group of individuals exposed to the putative risk factors must be compared with the incidence in a group of persons not exposed. This comparison can be summarized by calculating either the ratio of the measures of disease occurrence for the two groups, which indicates the likelihood of developing the disease in the exposed individuals relative to those unexposed, or the difference between the two, which provides information about the absolute effect of the exposure in those exposed compared with those unexposed. Some terms about relative risk were explained and examine with samples in this article. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2006; 5(5.000: 374-381

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

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Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Detailed predictive mapping of acid sulfate soil occurrence using electromagnetic induction data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beucher, Amélie; Boman, A; Mattbäck, S

impact through the resulting corrosion of concrete and steel infrastructures, or their poor geotechnical qualities.Mapping acid sulfate soil occurrence thus constitutes a key step to target the strategic areas for subsequent environmental risk management and mitigation. Conventional mapping (i.e. soil...

Occurrence of Chiral Bioactive Compounds in the Aquatic Environment: A Review

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Cláudia Ribeiro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, the presence of micropollutants in the environment has been extensively studied due to their high frequency of occurrence, persistence and possible adverse effects to exposed organisms. Concerning chiral micropollutants in the environment, enantiomers are frequently ignored and enantiomeric composition often neglected. However, enantioselective toxicity is well recognized, highlighting the need to include enantioselectivity in environmental risk assessment. Additionally, the information about enantiomeric fraction (EF is crucial since it gives insights about: (i environmental fate (i.e., occurrence, distribution, removal processes and (biodegradation; (ii illicit discharges; (iii consumption pattern (e.g., illicit drugs, pharmaceuticals used as recreational drugs, illicit use of pesticides; and (iv enantioselective toxicological effects. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review about the enantioselective occurrence of chiral bioactive compounds in aquatic environmental matrices. These include pharmaceuticals, illicit drugs, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs and polycyclic musks (PCMs. Most frequently analytical methods used for separation of enantiomers were liquid chromatography and gas chromatography methodologies using both indirect (enantiomerically pure derivatizing reagents and direct methods (chiral stationary phases. The occurrence of these chiral micropollutants in the environment is reviewed and future challenges are outlined.

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

2012-01-01

In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

Sociodemographic and environmental analysis for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Elís Rosélia Dutra de Freitas Siqueira; Castro, Vanessa; Mineiro, Ana Lys Bezerra Barradas; Prianti, Maria das Graças; Martins, Gustavo Henrique Chaves; Santana, Misael das Virgens; Brito, Lucas Moreira; Silva, Silvana Maria Medeiros de Sousa

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis whose transmission is interlinked by multiple factors in the man-animal-ecosystem interface. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs in the capital Teresina (PI), and to determine their spatial distribution. Five hundred fifty-eight dog blood samples were submitted to the Microscopic Serum Agglutination (MSA) test. We applied semi-structured questionnaires to dog owners and obtained the area of residence for projection in geographical maps. Serum prevalence was 13.8%, in which the most common serovar was icterohaemorrhagiae, with 49.2%. Dogs with street access, failure to collect food bowl and low income of owners were risk factors. There was a higher number of seropositive dogs in the rainy season, with 87.1%, which is a probable risk factor for the occurrence of cases. The distribution of seropositive dogs was widely spread in the city, with predominance of cases in anthropized areas. These risk factors favor the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs that are agent maintenance sources in the city and reinforce the need for epidemiological and environmental surveillance to prevent leptospirosis.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Unusual occurrence report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-01-01

The final report provides information on an occurrence which took place in the HEDL Radioactive Liquid Waste System (RLWS), during which radioactive waste water entered the Retention Process Waste System. The RLWS has been cleared of the obstruction and is in full operation. Investigation of the occurrence and testing of the equipment involved is completed

Evolution of thyroid cancer occurrence in metropolitan France. Assessment over 25 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogel, Agnes; Caserio-Schonemann, Celine; Cherie-Challine, Laurence; Rudant, Jeremie; Bloch, Juliette; Thuret, Anne; Colonna, Marc; Uhry, Zoe; Kudjawu, Yao; Danzon, Arlette; Lacour, Brigitte; Schvartz, Claire; Pascal, Laurence; Lasalle, Jean-Luc; Borson-Chazot, Francoise; Sassolas, Genevieve; Hafdi-Nejjari, Zakia; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Guenel, Pascal; Vathaire, Florent de; Guillas, Gwenaelle; Mesrine, Sylvie; Clavel-Chapelon, Francoise; Clero, Enora; Adjadj, Elisabeth; Bedouche, Lallia; Belot, Aurelien; Fieffe, Sandrine; Dalac, Audrey; Goncalves, Katia; Kaplan, Martine; Pochart, Jean-Marie; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2011-04-01

After a presentation of the epidemiological context of thyroid cancer in France, this report, based on cancer record data, analyzes the occurrence of thyroid cancers between 1982 and 2006. It discusses the contribution and limits of medical-administrative data for the epidemiological monitoring of thyroid cancer occurrence between 1997 and 2009. It proposes a descriptive analysis of thyroid cancers in two districts (Marne and Ardennes) between 1975 and 2008, and a descriptive analysis of thyroid cancer for children under 14 between 2000 and 2008. It proposes an estimation of thyroid cancer occurrence in Corsica between 1998 and 2006. It reports and discusses a pilot study performed in two regions (Ile de France and Nord Pas-de-Calais), based on a multi-source system of cancer monitoring (SMSC), and comments studies on risk factors for differentiated thyroid cancers in France

Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramsbottom David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

Mode of occurrence of chromium in four US coals

Science.gov (United States)

Huggins, Frank E.; Shah, N.; Huffman, G.P.; Kolker, A.; Crowley, S.; Palmer, C.A.; Finkelman, R.B.

2000-01-01

The mode of occurrence of chromium in three US bituminous coals and one US subbituminous has been examined using both X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy and a selective leaching protocol supplemented by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and electron microprobe measurements. A synthesis of results from both methods indicates that chromium occurs principally in two forms in the bituminous coals: the major occurrence of chromium is associated with the macerals and is not readily leached by any reagent, whereas a second, lesser occurrence, which is leachable in hydrofluoric acid (HF), is associated with the clay mineral, illite. The former occurrence is believed to be a small particle oxyhydroxide phase (CrO(OH)). One coal also contained a small fraction (<5%) of the chromium in the form of a chromian magnetite, and the leaching protocol indicated the possibility of a similar small fraction of chromium in sulfide form in all three coals. There was little agreement between the two techniques on the mode of occurrence of chromium in the subbituminous coal; however, only a limited number of subbituminous coals have been analyzed by either technique. The chromium in all four coals was trivalent as no evidence was found for the Cr6+ oxidation state in any coal.

Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

2017-07-01

produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018). CONCLUSIONS While the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.

Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barend Prinsloo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

2015-01-01

This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

Occurrence and effects of tire wear particles in the environment--a critical review and an initial risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wik, Anna; Dave, Göran

2009-01-01

This review summarizes the existing knowledge on the occurrence of tire wear particles in the environment, and their ecotoxicological effects. A meta-analysis on tire components in the environment revealed that tire wear particles are present in all environmental compartments, including air, water, soils/sediments, and biota. The maximum Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of tire wear particles in surface waters range from 0.03 to 56 mg l(-1) and the maximum PECs in sediments range from 0.3 to 155 g kg(-1) d.w. The results from our previous long-term studies with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs). The upper ranges for PEC/PNEC ratios in water and sediment were >1, meaning that tire wear particles present potential risks for aquatic organisms. We suggest that management should be directed towards development and production of more environmentally friendly tires and improved road runoff treatment.

Risk to human health associated with the environmental occurrence of cyanobacterial neurotoxic alkaloids anatoxins and saxitoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

Testai, Emanuela; Scardala, Simona; Vichi, Susanna; Buratti, Franca M; Funari, Enzo

2016-01-01

Cyanobacteria are ubiquitous photosynthetic micro-organisms forming blooms and scums in surface water; among them some species can produce cyanotoxins giving rise to some concern for human health and animal life. To date, more than 65 cyanobacterial neurotoxins have been described, of which the most studied are the groups of anatoxins and saxitoxins (STXs), comprising many different variants. In freshwaters, the hepatotoxic microcystins represent the most frequently detected cyanotoxin: on this basis, it could appear that neurotoxins are less relevant, but the low frequency of detection may partially reflect an a priori choice of target analytes, the low method sensitivity and the lack of certified standards. Cyanobacterial neurotoxins target cholinergic synapses or voltage-gated ion channels, blocking skeletal and respiratory muscles, thus leading to death by respiratory failure. This review reports and analyzes the available literature data on environmental occurrence of cyanobacterial neurotoxic alkaloids, namely anatoxins and STXs, their biosynthesis, toxicology and epidemiology, derivation of guidance values and action limits. These data are used as the basis to assess the risk posed to human health, identify critical exposure scenarios and highlight the major data gaps and research needs.

Serious neonatal airway obstruction with massive congenital sublingual ranula and contralateral occurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manish M. George

2015-06-01

Conclusions: The prenatal diagnosis of congenital ranulas have been seldom reported, with no reported cases of contralateral occurrence and airway obstruction from an intraoral ranula. This rare case highlights the need for a well considered contingency plan when surgery is required for a neonatal airway at risk.

Environmental occurrence of arsenic in Colombia: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso, David L; Latorre, Sergio; Castillo, Elianna; Brandão, Pedro F B

2014-03-01

The international literature on the presence of arsenic (As) in Latin America does not disclose the true magnitude of the presence of As in Colombia. In this paper, we summarize the literature on As occurrence in Colombia. The data reveal that As is present in matrices such as soil, sediments and water and in the food chain. Some of the As concentrations exceed the limits specified by national and international regulations. Arsenic higher concentrations are associated with mining regions (e.g., soils, up to 148 mg/kg; sediments, up to 1400 mg/kg) and agricultural areas (e.g., vegetables, up to 5.40 mg/kg; irrigation water, up to 255 μg/L), and underscore the potential human and environmental risks associated with the presence of As in the country. This review highlights the importance of focusing research on understanding the occurrence, origin and distribution of As in Colombia to better understand its environmental and public health impact. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos E. Kountzakis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

Science.gov (United States)

Civitarese, Jamil

2016-10-01

This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

Flood occurrence mapping of the middle Mahakam lowland area using satellite radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Hidayat

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Floodplain lakes and peatlands in the middle Mahakam lowland area are considered as ecologically important wetland in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. However, due to a lack of data, the hydrological functioning of the region is still poorly understood. Among remote sensing techniques that can increase data availability, radar is well-suitable for the identification, mapping, and measurement of tropical wetlands, for its cloud unimpeded sensing and night and day operation. Here we aim to extract flood extent and flood occurrence information from a series of radar images of the middle Mahakam lowland area. We explore the use of Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR imagery for observing flood inundation dynamics by incorporating field water level measurements. Water level measurements were carried out along the river, in lakes and in peatlands, using pressure transducers. For validation of the open water flood occurrence map, bathymetry measurements were carried out in the main lakes. A series of PALSAR images covering the middle and lower Mahakam area in the years 2007 through 2010 were collected. A fully inundated region can be easily recognized on radar images from a dark signature. Open water flood occurrence was mapped using a threshold value taken from radar backscatter of the permanently inundated river and lakes areas. Radar backscatter intensity analysis of the vegetated floodplain area revealed consistently high backscatter values, indicating flood inundation under forest canopy. We used those values as the threshold for flood occurrence mapping in the vegetated area.

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

Patterns of Occurrence and Outcomes of Contralateral Breast Cancer: Analysis of SEER Data

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Zhenchong Xiong

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Population-based estimates are lacking for the temporal trends in the contralateral breast cancer (CBC risk for patients with breast cancer (BC. Data for BC patients diagnosed with CBC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. CBC incidence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the temporal trend in CBC incidence was assessed using joinpoint regression. Survival analysis was calculated using propensity scoring (PS and multivariate Cox regression with a competing risk model. We found that 10,944 of 212,630 patients with early-stage BC were subsequently diagnosed with secondary BC in the contralateral breast. The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year cumulative CBC incidences were 1.9, 4.6, 7.6, and 10.5%, respectively. Being younger (<40 years, black, hormone receptor-negative, and having undergone radiotherapy were correlated with a high risk of CBC occurrence. CBC incidence increased continuously in the first 11 years after the initial cancer diagnosis, and the upward trend slowed from years 11 to 21, and tended to decline from years 21 to 24. CBC diagnosis was significantly and negatively associated with survival. We reported population-based estimates of the CBC occurrence pattern and risk factors. Patients are at high risk of developing CBC in the first 21 years after the initial BC diagnosis.

Relationship of Occlusal Schemes with the Occurrence of Temporomandibular Disorders

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Dina H. Sugiaman

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Masticatory system is a complex functional unit of the body responsible for mastication, speech, and deglutition process. Temporomandibular disorders (TMD is used to describe all functional disturbances of the masticatory system. The etiology of TMD is multifactorial, such as occlusal disharmony and emotional stress. The relationship between occlusion and TMD has been highly debated in dentistry, one of the occlusal factors is the occlusal scheme. Occlusal schemes are defined as bilateral canine guidance, unilateral canine guidance, group function and balanced occlusion. However, studies about the relationship of occlusal schemes and the occurrence of the TMD are still limited and remained controversial. Objective: To investigate the relationship of occlusal schemes witht he occurrence of TMD. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Faculty of Dentistry, Uniiversitas Indonesia. A total of 127 students were included in this study. Subjects were examined based on Clinical Helkimo Index and divided into TMD and non-TMD groups. Subjects were categorized as non-TMD groups if the value of the clinical Helkimo index was 0 and as TMD group when the value ranged between 1-25. Results: Balanced occlusion schemes has a greater risk of TMD occurrence with odds ratio value 5.6 and 95% confidence interval 1.188 to 26.331 (p=0.021. Conclusion: Balanced occlusion has a significant relationship with the occurrence of TMD.

Review: Occurrence of the pathogenic amoeba Naegleria fowleri in groundwater

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, Kelly R.; Gerba, Charles P.

2017-06-01

Naegleria fowleri is a thermophilic free-living amoeba found worldwide in soils and warm freshwater. It is the causative agent of primary amebic meningoencephalitis, a nearly always fatal disease afflicting mainly children and young adults. Humans are exposed to the organism via swimming, bathing, or other recreational activity during which water is forcefully inhaled into the upper nasal passages. Although many studies have looked at the occurrence of N. fowleri in surface waters, limited information is available regarding its occurrence in groundwater and geothermally heated natural waters such as hot springs. This paper reviews the current literature related to the occurrence of N. fowleri in these waters and the methods employed for its detection. Case reports of potential groundwater exposures are also included. Despite increased interest in N. fowleri in recent years due to well-publicized cases linked to drinking water, many questions still remain unanswered. For instance, why the organism persists in some water sources and not in others is not well understood. The role of biofilms in groundwater wells and plumbing in individual buildings, and the potential for warming due to climate change to expand the occurrence of the organism into new regions, are still unclear. Additional research is needed to address these questions in order to better understand the ecology of N. fowleri and the conditions that result in greater risks to bathers.

Assessment of risk of falls in elderly living at home

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Adriana de Azevedo Smith

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to assess the risk of falls in elderly, by comparing the sociodemographic and cognitive factors, history of falls and self-reported comorbidities. Method: cross-sectional and quantitative study with 240 elderly. Data were collected based on the social profile, through the instrument of risk of falls and assessment of falls, by univariate analysis, bivariate and multiple logistic regression. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS version 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: there was a significant association of the risk of falls, as measured by the Fall Risk Score, with sex (<0.001, age (0.054, cognitive status (<0.001 and history of falls (<0.001. All variables were statistically significant and contributed to the occurrence of falls. In logistic regression, the variables that showed association with risk of falls were: fall, with whom they live, hypertension and visual impairment. Conclusion: female gender, older elderly (over 80 years old, with low cognitive status and occurrence of previous falls in the last six months are factors that increase the prevalence of falls. In logistic regression, the variables that were associated with risk of falls were: fall, with whom they live, visual impairment and rheumatologic diseases.

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

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Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

RadCon Occurrence Reporting Simplified

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denham, D. H.

1999-01-01

This narrative and accompanying diagrams provide a simplified summary of the RadCon Occurrence Reporting criteria to allow Environmental Restoration Contractor (ERC) staff to efficiently recognize occurrences and to effectively initiate the implementation of the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and of the ERC criteria defined in BHI-MA-02, ERC Project Procedures, Procedure 2.6, ''Occurrence Investigation and Reporting.'' These directives promote timely identification, categorization, notification, and reporting to DOE and ERC management of reportable occurrences at DOE-owned or -operated facilities that could (1) affect health and safety of the public, (2) seriously impact the intended purpose of DOE facilities, (3) adversely affect the credibility of DOE, or (4) have a noticeable adverse effect on the environment

The relevance of echocardiography heart measures for breeding against the risk of subaortic and pulmonic stenosis in Boxer dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Menegazzo, L; Bussadori, C; Chiavegato, D; Quintavalla, C; Bonfatti, V; Guglielmini, C; Sturaro, E; Gallo, L; Carnier, P

2012-02-01

The aims of this study were to investigate the role and relative importance of auscultation and echocardiography traits as risk factors for the diagnosis of subaortic (SubAS) and pulmonic (PS) stenosis and to estimate the heritability (h(2)) of cardiac measurements taken through echocardiography for a random sample of Italian Boxer dogs. The data were cardiovascular examination results of 1,283 Italian Boxer dogs (686 females and 597 males) enrolled in the national screening program for heart defects arranged by the Italian Boxer Club. Examinations were performed during a 6-yr period by a group of 7 veterinary cardiologists following a standard protocol. Occurrence and severity of SubAS and PS were diagnosed, taking into account clinical and echocardiography findings such as the grade of cardiac murmur, direct ultrasound imaging of the anatomic obstructive lesions, and values of aortic or pulmonary blood flow velocities. A Bayesian logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and echocardiography variables related to SubAS and PS diagnosis. Estimation of variance components for clinical and echocardiography traits was performed using a mixed linear animal model, Bayesian procedures, and the Gibbs sampler. Prevalence of SubAS (PS) was 8.4% (2.2) and 10.7% (6.4) for female and male dogs, respectively. Cardiac murmur, peak velocities, and annulus areas behaved as risk factors for SubAS and PS. The risk of a positive diagnosis for SubAS was 3 times greater for dogs with aortic annulus area dogs with areas >2.37 cm(2), 84 times greater for dogs showing aortic peak velocities >2.19 m/s relative to dogs with peak velocities dogs with moderate to severe murmur grades relative to dogs with absent murmur. Similar results were obtained for PS. The estimated h(2) for the occurrence of cardiac defects was 23.3% for SubAS and 8.6% for PS. Echocardiography and cardiac murmur grades exhibited moderate h(2) estimates and exploitable additive genetic variation

Expert study to select indicators of the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandhai, M C; Booij, C J H; Van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2011-01-01

This article describes a Delphi-based expert judgment study aimed at the selection of indicators to identify the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards related to Fusarium spp. in wheat supply chains. A panel of 29 experts from 12 European countries followed a holistic approach to evaluate the most important indicators for different chain stages (growth, transport and storage, and processing) and their relative importance. After three e-mailing rounds, the experts reached consensus on the most important indicators for each of the three stages: wheat growth, transport and storage, and processing. For wheat growth, these indicators include: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity of the kernels, and crop variety/cultivar. For the transport and storage stage, they include water activity in the kernels, relative humidity, ventilation, temperature, storage capacity, and logistics. For wheat processing, indicators include quality data, fraction of the cereal used, water activity in the kernels, quality management and traceability systems, and carryover of contamination. The indicators selected in this study can be used in an identification system for the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards in wheat supply chains. Such a system can be used by risk managers within governmental (related) organizations and/or the food and feed industry in order to react proactively to the occurrence of these emerging mycotoxins. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Stability, occurrence and step morphology of polymorphs and polytypes of stearic acid. I. Stability and occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Kiyotaka; Kobayashi, Masamichi; Morishita, Hirofumi

1988-02-01

The thermodynamical stability and occurrence of three different structural modifications: monoclinic and pseudo-orthorhombic polytypes of the B polymorph, called B(mon) and B(orth II) respectively, and monoclinic C polymorph, C(mon), of stearic acid have been examined. The solubility measurements, overgrowth and isothermal crystallization proved that B(orth II) and C(mon) are most stable below and above 32°C, respectively, whereas B(mon) is always metastable, turning to be more stable than C(mon) below between 23 and 24°C. It was confirmed by micro-probe Raman spectroscopy that the polytypic structure of the newly-overgrown crystal on the (001) faces of the seed crystal of B(mon) changed from the original monoclinic to pseudo-orthorhombic, B(orth II), at very small supersaturations above 23°C. This conversion was caused by the solubility difference. The occurrence experiment indicated a slight tendency that B(mon) crystallized more than B(orth II) at lower temperatures.

The co-occurrence of non-suicidal self-injury and attempted suicide among adolescents: distinguishing risk factors and psychosocial correlates

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Andover Margaret S

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Although attempted suicide and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI are distinct behaviors differing in intent, form, and function, the behaviors co-occur at a high rate in both adults and adolescents. Researchers have begun to investigate the association between attempted suicide and NSSI among adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to present current research on this association. First, we discuss definitional issues associated with self-injurious behaviors. Next, we present research on the co-occurrence of attempted suicide and NSSI, including prevalence and associations with self-injury characteristics. We then discuss psychosocial variables associated with engaging in both NSSI and attempted suicide or one type of self-injury alone. Finally, we present the research to date on risk factors uniquely associated with either attempted suicide or NSSI. Implications for mental health professionals and future avenues of research are discussed.

Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

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Iordanis Eleftheriadis

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

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Jasper Mbachu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

Mechanism of Rock Burst Occurrence in Specially Thick Coal Seam with Rock Parting

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian-chao; Jiang, Fu-xing; Meng, Xiang-jun; Wang, Xu-you; Zhu, Si-tao; Feng, Yu

2016-05-01

Specially thick coal seam with complex construction, such as rock parting and alternative soft and hard coal, is called specially thick coal seam with rock parting (STCSRP), which easily leads to rock burst during mining. Based on the stress distribution of rock parting zone, this study investigated the mechanism, engineering discriminant conditions, prevention methods, and risk evaluation method of rock burst occurrence in STCSRP through setting up a mechanical model. The main conclusions of this study are as follows. (1) When the mining face moves closer to the rock parting zone, the original non-uniform stress of the rock parting zone and the advancing stress of the mining face are combined to intensify gradually the shearing action of coal near the mining face. When the shearing action reaches a certain degree, rock burst easily occurs near the mining face. (2) Rock burst occurrence in STCSRP is positively associated with mining depth, advancing stress concentration factor of the mining face, thickness of rock parting, bursting liability of coal, thickness ratio of rock parting to coal seam, and difference of elastic modulus between rock parting and coal, whereas negatively associated with shear strength. (3) Technologies of large-diameter drilling, coal seam water injection, and deep hole blasting can reduce advancing stress concentration factor, thickness of rock parting, and difference of elastic modulus between rock parting and coal to lower the risk of rock burst in STCSRP. (4) The research result was applied to evaluate and control the risk of rock burst occurrence in STCSRP.

Occurrence, genotyping, shiga toxin genes and associated risk factors of E. coli isolated from dairy farms, handlers and milk consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Awadallah, M A; Ahmed, H A; Merwad, A M; Selim, M A

2016-11-01

The objectives of the current study were to determine the occurrence and genotypes of E. coli in dairy farms, workers and milk consumers and to evaluate risk factors associated with contamination of milk in dairy farms. Molecular characterization of shiga toxin associated genes and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR (ERIC-PCR) finger printing of E. coli from different sources were also studied. Paired milk samples and rectal swabs from 125 dairy cows, rectal swabs from 82 calves and hand swabs from 45 dairy workers from five dairy farms were collected. In addition, 100 stool samples from 70 diarrheic and 30 healthy humans were collected and examined for the presence of E. coli. E. coli was isolated from milk (22.4%), dairy cattle feces (33.6%), calf feces (35.4%), dairy worker hand swabs (11.1%) and stools of milk consumers (2%, from diarrheic patients only). Only stx1 was identified in seven of 12 E. coli O125 isolated from different sources. High genetic diversity was determined (Simpson's index of diversity, D = 1) and E. coli O125 isolates were classified into 12 distinct profiles, E1-E12. The dendrogram analysis showed that two main clusters were generated. Mastitis in dairy cows was considered a risk factor associated with contamination of the produced milk with E. coli. The isolation of E. coli from rectal swabs of dairy cows and calves poses a zoonotic risk through consumption of unpasteurized contaminated dairy milk. Educational awareness should be developed to address risks related to consumption of raw milk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: An underestimated risk to temperate regions?

Science.gov (United States)

Blagrove, Marcus S C; Caminade, Cyril; Waldmann, Elisabeth; Sutton, Elizabeth R; Wardeh, Maya; Baylis, Matthew

2017-06-01

Mosquito-borne viruses have been estimated to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Many methodologies have been developed to help identify areas most at risk from transmission of these viruses. However, generally, these methodologies focus predominantly on the effects of climate on either the vectors or the pathogens they spread, and do not consider the dynamic interaction between the optimal conditions for both vector and virus. Here, we use a new approach that considers the complex interplay between the optimal temperature for virus transmission, and the optimal climate for the mosquito vectors. Using published geolocated data we identified temperature and rainfall ranges in which a number of mosquito vectors have been observed to co-occur with West Nile virus, dengue virus or chikungunya virus. We then investigated whether the optimal climate for co-occurrence of vector and virus varies between "warmer" and "cooler" adapted vectors for the same virus. We found that different mosquito vectors co-occur with the same virus at different temperatures, despite significant overlap in vector temperature ranges. Specifically, we found that co-occurrence correlates with the optimal climatic conditions for the respective vector; cooler-adapted mosquitoes tend to co-occur with the same virus in cooler conditions than their warmer-adapted counterparts. We conclude that mosquitoes appear to be most able to transmit virus in the mosquitoes' optimal climate range, and hypothesise that this may be due to proportionally over-extended vector longevity, and other increased fitness attributes, within this optimal range. These results suggest that the threat posed by vector-competent mosquito species indigenous to temperate regions may have been underestimated, whilst the threat arising from invasive tropical vectors moving to cooler temperate regions may be overestimated.

Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weikard, H.P.

2004-01-01

Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

2006-01-01

Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

Antibiotic contamination in a typical developing city in south China: occurrence and ecological risks in the Yongjiang River impacted by tributary discharge and anthropogenic activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Baoming; Zhang, Ruijie; Wang, Yinghui; Liu, Xiang; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

2013-06-01

The occurrence and distribution of ten selected antibiotics from three groups (sulfonamides, macrolides, and trimethoprim) were investigated in the Yongjiang River, which flows through Nanning City, a typical developing city in China. The study also assessed the ecological risks and the potential effects caused by discharge from tributaries and anthropogenic activities. Concentrations of most of the antibiotics were elevated along the section of the river in the urban area, highlighting the significant impact of high population density and human activities on the presence of antibiotics in the environment. The concentrations in the tributaries (ranged from not detected to 1336ngL(-1)) were generally higher than those in the main stream (ranged from not detected to 78.8ngL(-1)), but both areas contained the same predominant antibiotics, revealing the importance of tributary discharge as a source of antibiotic pollution. A risk assessment for the surface water contamination revealed that sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin posed high ecological risks to the most sensitive aquatic organisms (Synechococcus leopoliensis and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, respectively) in the midstream and some tributaries. Most of the selected antibiotics presented high ecological risks (risk quotients up to 95) in the sediments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

2000-01-01

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

Monitoring modifiable risk factors for breast cancer: an obligation for health professionals

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Verónica Guerra Guerrero

2017-06-01

Full Text Available SYNOPSIS Worldwide, breast cancer is the most common disease in women and constitutes the second leading cause of cancer death in this population. The factors that contribute to the risk of occurrence are divided into nonmodifiable and modifiable factors. Although there are interventions in primary care to prevent the disease, these measures have not produced the desired changes in women’s health. This article reviews the major modifiable risk factors for breast cancer and describes how these factors can affect the incidence of cancer in women. This information shows that modifiable risk factors (such as physical activity, diet, obesity, and use of alcohol and tobacco can influence the occurrence of breast cancer, in part depending on the life stage of a woman, including menopausal status. Timely prevention at the primary care level is one of the most important areas on which health professionals need to focus in order to help reduce the incidence of breast cancer.

Extent of poly-pharmacy, occurrence and associated factors of drug-drug interaction and potential adverse drug reactions in Gondar Teaching Referral Hospital, North West Ethiopia

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Endalkachew Admassie

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the extent of poly-pharmacy, occurrence, and associated factors for the occurrence of drug-drug interaction (DDI and potential adverse drug reaction (ADR in Gondar University Teaching Referral Hospital. Institutional-based retrospective cross-sectional study. This study was conducted on prescriptions of both in and out-patients for a period of 3 months at Gondar University Hospital. Both bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for the occurrence of DDI and possible ADRs. All the statistical calculations were performed using SPSS; software. A total of 12,334 prescriptions were dispensed during the study period of which, 2,180 prescriptions were containing two or more drugs per prescription. A total of 21,210 drugs were prescribed and the average number of drugs per prescription was 1.72. Occurrences of DDI of all categories (Major, Moderate, and Minor were analyzed and DDI were detected in 711 (32.6% prescriptions. Sex was not found to be a risk factor for the occurrence of DDI and ADR, while age and number of medications per prescription were found to be significant risk factors for the occurrence of DDI and ADR. The mean number of drugs per prescription was 1.72 and hence with regard to the WHO limit of drugs per prescription, Gondar hospital was able to maintain the limit and prescriptions containing multiple drugs supposed to be taken systemically. Numbers of drugs per prescription as well as older age were found to be predisposing factors for the occurrence of DDI and potential ADRs while sex was not a risk factor.

Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

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Kaan Sözmen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

General characterization of the uranium occurrence in the formation Esperanza

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olivera, J.; Sanchez, J.; Alcalde, J.; Pena, B.; Geler, T.

1995-01-01

The main geological, geophysical (Radiometric survey, gamma spectrometric survey, measurement of Rn 222), geochemical and mineralogical characteristics in uranium occurrences, located in the Esperanza formation in Pinar del Rio, Cuba are showed

Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Škapa

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

2018-04-01

Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

Inhaled Corticosteroids and the Occurrence of Oral Candidiasis : A Prescription Sequence Symmetry Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Boven, Job F. M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje T. W.; Vegter, Stefan

The primary aim of the study was to gain insight into the relative risk of clinically relevant oral candidiasis following inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) initiation over time. A secondary aim was to analyse the influence of patient characteristics and co-medication on the occurrence of this adverse

Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zdeněk Konečný

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

2017-04-01

This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

Risk factors for the occurrence of cardovascular system diseases in students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojanović Dušica

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death in the majority of developed, as well as in many developing countries. The aim of this study was to determine cardiovascular risk factors in student population and to suggest possible measures for prevention. Methods. The study was carried out during 2007-2008 at the School of Medicine, University of Niš. It included 824 students in their final year (220 males, 604 females. Results. There was no significant difference in prevalence of hypertension among the male (1.81% and female students (0%. The prevalence of obesity (Body Mass Index - BMI > 30 kg/m2 was significantly higher (p < 0.001 in the male (7.27% than in the female population (1.32%. Abdominal obesity was also more frequently encountered (p < 0.01 in the male (9.09% than in female population (1.32%. Every fourth student smoked cigarettes with no significant difference between the male and female students. Alcohol consumption was a significantly higher problem (p < 0.001 in the male population (18.18% than in the female one (2.65%. Physical inactivity was more often found (p < 0.001 in the female students (65.56%, than in male ones (36.36%. By the bivariate correlation of cardiovascular risk factors, it was determined that in the male student population systolic blood pressure correlated significantly with diastolic blood pressure, BMI and waist size, whereas age correlated with sistolic blood pressure, waist size and smoking. In the female students sistolic blood pressure correlated with diastolic blood pressure, BMI and waist size; diastolic blood pressure correlated with BMI and physical inactivity; cigarette smoking correlated with alcohol consumption and age. Conclusion. Cardiovascular risk factors are present in the final-year students of the School of Medicine, University of Niš. It is necessary to insist on decreasing obesity prevalence, cigarette and alcohol consumption, and on increasing physical activity

Determinants of occurrence and survival after sudden cardiac arrest-A European perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Empana, Jean-Philippe; Blom, Marieke T; Bӧttiger, Bernd W

2018-01-01

AIMS: The ESCAPE-NET project ("European Sudden Cardiac Arrest network- towards Prevention, Education and New Effective Treatments") aims to study: (1) risk factors and mechanisms for the occurrence of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in the population, and (2) risk factors and treatment strategies...... for survival after SCA on a European scale. METHODS: This is an Horizon2020 funded program of the European Union, performed by a European public-private consortium of 16 partners across 10 EU countries. There are 11 deep-phenotyped SCA cohorts for the study of risk factors and treatment strategies for survival...... ongoing efforts on SCA outside Europe and within Europe including the EuReCa project....

District file of major risks for the Moselle district: B6 - The nuclear risk; B7 - The risk related to radioactive material transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-10-01

A first document addresses the nuclear risk with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for people and for the environment with an indication of exposure thresholds, presentation of individual safety directives), a discussion of the nuclear risk level in the district (history, contamination threats, preventive actions for the Cattenom nuclear plant, existence of a triple barrier for radioactive product containment, other factors aimed at nuclear safety, urban development control, control of nuclear activities, information, rescue organisation, map of concerned communes). The second document addresses the risk related to radioactive material transport with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for persons and goods, individual safety directive in case of road or railway accident), a more detailed analysis of the risk in the district (situation of the radioactive material transport in the district, risk history, human and environmental stakes, preventive actions, radiation protection safety challenges, safety factors, control of transports, rescue organisation)

Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juhásová L.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

2012-01-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

Science.gov (United States)

Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

2018-01-01

In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

AURKA Phe31Ile polymorphism interacted with use of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarettes at multiplicative risk of oral cancer occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chi-Pin; Chiang, Shang-Lun; Lee, Chien-Hung; Tsai, Yi-Shan; Wang, Zhi-Hong; Hua, Chun-Hung; Chen, Yuan-Chien; Tsai, Eing-Mei; Ko, Ying-Chin

2015-11-01

The expression levels of two DNA repair genes (CHAF1A and CHAF1B) and a chromosome segregation gene (AURKA) were susceptible to arecoline exposure, a major alkaloid of areca nut. We hypothesize that genetic variants of these genes might also be implicated in the risk of oral cancer and could be modified by substance use of betel quid or alcohol and cigarettes. A case-control study, which included 507 patients with oral cancer and 717 matched controls, was performed in order to evaluate the cancer susceptibility by the tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) in AURKA, CHAF1A, and CHAF1B using a genotyping assay and gene-environment interaction analysis. The Phe31Ile polymorphism (rs2273535, T91A) of AURKA was significantly associated with an increased risk of oral cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.5). The gene dosage of the 91A allele also showed a significant trend in risk of oral cancer (P = 0.008). Furthermore, we found the AURKA 91AA homozygote was modifiable by substance use of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarettes (ABC), leading to increased risk of oral cancer in an additive or a multiplicative model (combined effect indexes = 1.2-4.0 and 1.5-2.2, respectively). However, no association was observed between the genetic variants of CHAF1A or CHAF1B and oral cancer risk in the study. These findings reveal the functional Phe31Ile polymorphism tagSNP of AURKA may be a strong susceptibility gene in ABC-related oral cancer occurrence. The results of this betel-related oral cancer study provide the evidence of environment-gene interaction for early prediction and molecular diagnosis.

Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekaterina V. Tulupova

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

Risk appraisal in the radiotherapy patient: “V. I. Lenin” Hospital in Holguin province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González López, Dagoberto Eloy; Borjas Hernández, Pedro

2015-01-01

An accident is usually caused by the simultaneous occurrence of human errors and equipment failure. In medical applications, the radiation therapy is the increased risk of complexity presented by treatments in patients. The different accidents that have occurred in the world in this practice show the need for safety analysis in order to identify and prevent accidental exposures. In this regard, the effectiveness of the semiquantitative method of “risk matrices”, which consists of a combined analysis of the frequency of occurrence of the event causing the accident, the chance of human errors or failure of the safety barriers, in addition to recognizing the seriousness of the consequences resulting from such events; which define the acceptability criteria based on risk. In this research, this method was applied for safety evaluation analysis of the radiotherapy service at Holguin hospital, which uses a cobalt 60 Theratron Phoenix equipment. The study allowed to quantify the radiotherapy service strengths, to identify the most significant contributors to risk events from the viewpoint of safety, as well as to adopt the most appropriate mitigation measures in order to decrease the occurrence of such accidents. The risk of a large number of accident sequences caused by all possible human errors and equipment failures in the service was estimated, and it was also observed and consequently concluded that none of the accident sequences was considered as very high risk thus confirming that there is no imminent risk which could result in an accident at this facility. (author)

The effect of evaluation on co-occurrence memory judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Bar-Anan, Yoav; Amzaleg-David, Efrat

2014-01-01

Three experiments tested the effect of an attitude towards an object on the memory judgement of whether this object co-occurred with positive versus negative stimuli. We induced positive or negative attitudes towards novel male stimuli, and paired each man with an equal number of positive and negative animals. In a memory test, participants reported more co-occurrences of same-valence man/animal pairs than opposite-valence pairs. This valence-compatibility effect occurred even when attitudes were induced after the pairing (Experiment 1), when participants knew that each man occurred with an equal number of positive and negative animals (Experiment 2), and in reports of clear memory of pairs that did not co-occur (Experiment 3). The present findings suggest that evaluation causes illusory correlation even when the co-occurring stimuli are not traits or behaviours attributed to the attitude object. The results question the validity of co-occurrence memory judgements as measures of co-occurrence awareness in evaluative conditioning (EC) research.

Risk Management in the Age of Turbulence - Failures and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru CAPATINA

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Today’s business, being affected by the continuous changes in economic environment, must reinvent the “prudent risk taking” concept to strike an appropriate balance between risk, return and growth, in order to create lasting value. This paper is focused on describing the nature of risk and the objectives of risk management. In the context of more attractive risk conceptual simplifications which often lead to significant errors, the paper explains the failures in risk management, the way of their occurrence and the methods of reducing their occurrence.

Aspects Concerning the Relationship between Internal Audit and Fraud Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Lupasc

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In the current economical situation, fraud cannot be regarded as an exception with random occurrence and limited effects on credit institution. Major fraud scandals that shook the financial markets required a rethinking of the organization and control of the banks to keep intact the trust of customers. Identifying and assessing risks is a concern not only for managers, but also for internal and external auditors. Management may implement programs or measures to limit the risks or deciding to accept some risks. In order to identify the main causes generating fraud risk and increasing the quality of banking activity we used a quantitative research method that was based on a questionnaire administered individually, using SPSS.

Investigation of independence in inter-animal tumor-type occurrences within the NTP rodent-bioassay database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bogen, K.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Seilkop, S. [Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)

1993-05-01

Statistically significant elevation in tumor incidence at multiple histologically distinct sites is occasionally observed among rodent bioassays of chemically induced carcinogenesis. If such data are to be relied on (as they have, e.g., by the US EPA) for quantitative cancer potency assessment, their proper analysis requires a knowledge of the extent to which multiple tumor-type occurrences are independent or uncorrelated within individual bioassay animals. Although difficult to assess in a statistically rigorous fashion, a few significant associations among tumor-type occurrences in rodent bioassays have been reported. However, no comprehensive studies of animal-specific tumor-type occurrences at death or sacrifice have been conducted using the extensive set of available NTP rodent-bioassay data, on which most cancer-potency assessment for environmental chemicals is currently based. This report presents the results of such an analysis conducted on behalf of the National Research Council`s Committee on Risk Assessment for Hazardous Air Pollutants. Tumor-type associations among individual animals were examined for {approximately}2500 to 3000 control and {approximately}200 to 600 treated animals using pathology data from 62 B6C3F1 mouse studies and 61 F/344N rat studies obtained from a readily available subset of the NTP carcinogenesis bioassay database. No evidence was found for any large correlation in either the onset probability or the prevalence-at-death or sacrifice of any tumor-type pair investigated in control and treated rats and niece, although a few of the small correlations present were statistically significant. Tumor-type occurrences were in most cases nearly independent, and departures from independence, where they did occur, were small. This finding is qualified in that tumor-type onset correlations were measured only indirectly, given the limited nature of the data analyzed.

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Improving SysSim's Planetary Occurrence Rate Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Ashby, Keir; Ragozzine, Darin; Hsu, Danley; Ford, Eric B.

2017-10-01

Kepler's catalog of thousands of transiting planet candidates enables statistical characterization of the underlying planet occurrence rates as a function of period and radius. Due to geometric factors and general noise in measurements, we know that many planets--especially those with a small-radius and/or long-period--were not observed by Kepler.To account for Kepler's detection criteria, Hsu et al. 2017 expanded on work in Lissuaer et al. 2011 to develop the Planetary System Simulator or "SysSim". SysSim uses a forward model to generate simulated catalogs of exoplanet systems, determine which of those simulated planets would have been seen by Kepler in the presence of uncertainties, and then compares those “observed planets” to those actually seen by Kepler. It then uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the posterior probability distributions of the input parameters used to generate the forward model. In Hsu et al. 2017, we focused on matching the observed frequency of planets by solving for the underlying occurrence rate for each bin in a 2-dimensional grid of radius and period. After summarizing the results of Hsu et al. 2017, we show new results that investigate the effect on occurrence rates from including more accurate completeness products (from the Kepler DR25 analysis) into SysSim.

Health protection and risks for rescuers in cases of floods.

Science.gov (United States)

Janev Holcer, Nataša; Jeličić, Pavle; Grba Bujević, Maja; Važanić, Damir

2015-03-01

Floods can pose a number of safety and health hazards for flood-affected populations and rescuers and bring risk of injuries, infections, and diseases due to exposure to pathogenic microorganisms and different biological and chemical contaminants. The risk factors and possible health consequences for the rescuers involved in evacuation and rescuing operations during the May 2014 flood crisis in Croatia are shown, as well as measures for the prevention of injuries and illnesses. In cases of extreme floods, divers play a particularly important role in rescuing and first-response activities. Rescuing in contaminated floodwaters means that the used equipment such as diving suits should be disinfected afterwards. The need for securing the implementation of minimal health and safety measures for involved rescuers is paramount. Data regarding injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers are relatively scarce, indicating the need for medical surveillance systems that would monitor and record all injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers in order to ensure sound epidemiological data. The harmful effects of flooding can be reduced by legislation, improvement of flood forecasting, establishing early warning systems, and appropriate planning and education.

Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (''Reportable Occurrences''); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department's performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations

Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-07-21

DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (``Reportable Occurrences``); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department`s performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations.

Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Allen

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

Bisphenol analogues in surface water and sediment from the shallow Chinese freshwater lakes: Occurrence, distribution, source apportionment, and ecological and human health risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Zhengyu; Liu, Yanhua; Yan, Kun; Wu, Shengmin; Han, Zhihua; Guo, Ruixin; Chen, Meihong; Yang, Qiulian; Zhang, Shenghu; Chen, Jianqiu

2017-10-01

Compared to Bisphenol A (BPA), current knowledge on the spatial distribution, potential sources and environmental risk assessment of other bisphenol analogues (BPs) remains limited. The occurrence, distribution and sources of seven BPs were investigated in the surface water and sediment from Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, which are the Chinese shallow freshwater lakes. Because there are many industries and living areas around Taihu Lake, the total concentrations of ∑BPs were much higher than that in Luoma Lake, which is away from the industry-intensive areas. For the two lakes, BPA was still the dominant BPs in both surface water and sediment, followed by BPF and BPS. The spatial distribution and principal component analysis showed that BPs in Luoma Lake was relatively homogeneous and the potential sources were relatively simple than that in Taihu Lake. The spatial distribution of BPs in sediment of Taihu Lake indicated that ∑BPs positively correlated with the TOC content. For both Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, the risk assessment at the sampling sites showed that no high risk in surface water and sediment (RQ t  < 1.0, and EEQ t  < 1.0 ng E 2 /L). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Normalized burn ratios link fire severity with patterns of avian occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Eli T.; Simons, Theodore R.; Klein, Rob; McKerrow, Alexa

2016-01-01

ContextRemotely sensed differenced normalized burn ratios (DNBR) provide an index of fire severity across the footprint of a fire. We asked whether this index was useful for explaining patterns of bird occurrence within fire adapted xeric pine-oak forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains.ObjectivesWe evaluated the use of DNBR indices for linking ecosystem process with patterns of bird occurrence. We compared field-based and remotely sensed fire severity indices and used each to develop occupancy models for six bird species to identify patterns of bird occurrence following fire.MethodsWe identified and sampled 228 points within fires that recently burned within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We performed avian point counts and field-assessed fire severity at each bird census point. We also used Landsat™ imagery acquired before and after each fire to quantify fire severity using DNBR. We used non-parametric methods to quantify agreement between fire severity indices, and evaluated single season occupancy models incorporating fire severity summarized at different spatial scales.ResultsAgreement between field-derived and remotely sensed measures of fire severity was influenced by vegetation type. Although occurrence models using field-derived indices of fire severity outperformed those using DNBR, summarizing DNBR at multiple spatial scales provided additional insights into patterns of occurrence associated with different sized patches of high severity fire.ConclusionsDNBR is useful for linking the effects of fire severity to patterns of bird occurrence, and informing how high severity fire shapes patterns of bird species occurrence on the landscape.

Modelling characteristics to predict Legionella contamination risk - Surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems and identification of risk areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Völker, Sebastian; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2016-01-01

For the surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems (DWPS) and the identification of risk factors, there is a need for an early estimation of the risk of Legionella contamination within a building, using efficient and assessable parameters to estimate hazards and to prioritize risks. The precision, accuracy and effectiveness of ways of estimating the risk of higher Legionella numbers (temperature, stagnation, pipe materials, etc.) have only rarely been empirically assessed in practice, although there is a broad consensus about the impact of these risk factors. We collected n = 807 drinking water samples from 9 buildings which had had Legionella spp. occurrences of >100 CFU/100mL within the last 12 months, and tested for Legionella spp., L. pneumophila, HPC 20°C and 36°C (culture-based). Each building was sampled for 6 months under standard operating conditions in the DWPS. We discovered high variability (up to 4 log(10) steps) in the presence of Legionella spp. (CFU/100 mL) within all buildings over a half year period as well as over the course of a day. Occurrences were significantly correlated with temperature, pipe length measures, and stagnation. Logistic regression modelling revealed three parameters (temperature after flushing until no significant changes in temperatures can be obtained, stagnation (low withdrawal, qualitatively assessed), pipe length proportion) to be the best predictors of Legionella contamination (>100 CFU/100 mL) at single outlets (precision = 66.7%; accuracy = 72.1%; F(0.5) score = 0.59). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša Žiković

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

On the relationship between positive and negative affect: Their correlation and their co-occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Jeff T; Hershfield, Hal E; Stastny, Bradley J; Hester, Neil

2017-03-01

Understanding the nature of emotional experience requires understanding the relationship between positive and negative affect. Two particularly important aspects of that relationship are the extent to which positive and negative affect are correlated with one another and the extent to which they co-occur. Some researchers have assumed that weak negative correlations imply greater co-occurrence (i.e., more mixed emotions) than do strong negative correlations, but others have noted that correlations may imply very little about co-occurrence. We investigated the relationship between the correlation between positive and negative affect and co-occurrence. Participants in each of 2 samples provided moment-to-moment happiness and sadness ratings as they watched an evocative film and listened to music. Results indicated (a) that 4 measures of the correlation between positive and negative affect were quite highly related to 1 another; (b) that the strength of the correlation between measures of mixed emotions varied considerably; (c) that correlational measures were generally (but not always) weakly correlated with mixed emotion measures; and (d) that bittersweet stimuli consistently led to elevations in mixed emotion measures but did not consistently weaken the correlation between positive and negative affect. Results highlight that the correlation between positive and negative affect and their co-occurrence are distinct aspects of the relationship between positive and negative affect. Such insight helps clarify the implications of existing work on age-related and cultural differences in emotional experience and sets the stage for greater understanding of the experience of mixed emotions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

Occurrence and spatial distribution of intestinal parasites in an agricultural center in Paraná State, Brazil - doi: 10.4025/actascihealthsci.v32i2.5283 Occurrence and spatial distribution of intestinal parasites in an agricultural center in Paraná State, Brazil - doi: 10.4025/actascihealthsci.v32i2.5283

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanderly Janeiro

2010-09-01

Full Text Available We determined the occurrence of human cases of intestinal parasites and their spatial distribution in an agricultural center of the state of Paraná in southern Brazil. Results from 5,219 stool examinations carried out in 2003 and 2004 in public and private clinical-pathology laboratories were analyzed. The overall occurrence of intestinal parasites was 19.8%. Entamoeba coli (7.2% and Giardia duodenalis (5.2% were the most frequent species. E. coli was present in 36.4%, G. duodenalis in 26.2% and E. nana in 13.6% of positive cases. According to spatial distribution, the highest occurrence of intestinal parasites was observed in the Piquiri/Guarujá area (p G. duodenalis (22.2% and E. coli (7.4%. Significant differences in the occurrence of enteroparasites were observed for females (p We determined the occurrence of human cases of intestinal parasites and their spatial distribution in an agricultural center of the state of Paraná in southern Brazil. Results from 5,219 stool examinations carried out in 2003 and 2004 in public and private clinical-pathology laboratories were analyzed. The overall occurrence of intestinal parasites was 19.8%. Entamoeba coli (7.2% and Giardia duodenalis (5.2% were the most frequent species. E. coli was present in 36.4%, G. duodenalis in 26.2% and E. nana in 13.6% of positive cases. According to spatial distribution, the highest occurrence of intestinal parasites was observed in the Piquiri/Guarujá area (p G. duodenalis (22.2% and E. coli (7.4%. Significant differences in the occurrence of enteroparasites were observed for females (p < 0.05 and children 0 to 10 years of age (p < 0.05. The occurrence of intestinal parasites in the municipality was mostly related to children, females, and residence in rural areas and the peripheries of urban centers, where the risk of infection is greater. This information will allow the development of appropriate measures for disease prevention and optimization of resources.

Occurrence of Emerging Micropollutants in Water Systems in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West Provinces, South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Wanda, Elijah M M; Nyoni, Hlengilizwe; Mamba, Bhekie B; Msagati, Titus A M

2017-01-13

The ubiquitous occurrence of emerging micropollutants (EMPs) in water is an issue of growing environmental-health concern worldwide. However, there remains a paucity of data regarding their levels and occurrence in water. This study determined the occurrence of EMPs namely: carbamazepine (CBZ), galaxolide (HHCB), caffeine (CAF), tonalide (AHTN), 4-nonylphenol (NP), and bisphenol A (BPA) in water from Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces, South Africa using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GCxGC-HRTOFMS). Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA were performed to determine temporal variations in occurrence of the EMPs. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Surfer Golden Graphics software for surface mapping were used to determine spatial variations in levels and occurrence of the EMPs. The mean levels ranged from 11.22 ± 18.8 ng/L for CAF to 158.49 ± 662 ng/L for HHCB. There was no evidence of statistically significant temporal variations in occurrence of EMPs in water. Nevertheless, their levels and occurrence vary spatially and are a function of two principal components (PCs, PC1 and PC2) which controlled 89.99% of the variance. BPA was the most widely distributed EMP, which was present in 62% of the water samples. The detected EMPs pose ecotoxicological risks in water samples, especially those from Mpumalanga province.

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-06-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health and safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report covers the period January through March 1993. There is one abnormal occurrence at a nuclear power plant disposed in this report that involved a steam generator tube rupture at Palo Verde Unit 2, and none for fuel cycle facilities. Three abnormal occurrences involving medical misadminstrations (two therapeutic and one diagnostic) at NRC-licensed facilities are also discussed in this report. No abnormal occurrences were reported by NRC's Agreement States. The report also contains information updating previously reported abnormal occurrences

Occurrence of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies and parasite DNA in backyard chicken breeding in Northeast, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Fernanda Torres Samico Fernandes

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract The aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies and parasite DNA in backyard chickens bred in the metropolitan area of Recife, Brazil. In total, 212 serum samples were collected from 16 properties, and 12 backyard chickens were collected in the six sanitary districts of Recife. An indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA was used to investigate the occurrence of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR was used to detect T. gondii DNA in brain, heart, liver and lung specimens. Of the samples analyzed by serology, 86/212 (40.56% were positive; of the samples analyzed by PCR, 2/12 (16.7% were positive, with both samples positive by both tests (serological and molecular. The presence of antibody anti-T. gondii and parasite DNA in tissues of these animals are worrying aspects for public health because there is a risk of transmission of the parasite to humans through eating undercooked or raw meat. Based on the results, the adoption of preventive measures to prevent the cats access to the chickens creations should be encouraged, since these animals were identified in most of the studied properties.

Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

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Gapenski, L C

1992-11-01

The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

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Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

2011-11-01

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A prospective investigation of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene carriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guinan, Emer M; Hussey, Juliette; McGarrigle, Sarah A; Healy, Laura A; O’Sullivan, Jacintha N; Bennett, Kathleen; Connolly, Elizabeth M

2013-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common female cancer worldwide. The lifetime risk of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer is approximately 12.5%. For women who carry the deleterious mutation in either of the BRCA genes, BRCA1 or BRCA2, the risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer is significantly increased. In recent years there has been increased penetrance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 associated breast cancer, prompting investigation into the role of modifiable risk factors in this group. Previous investigations into this topic have relied on participants recalling lifetime weight changes and subjective methods of recording physical activity. The influence of obesity-related biomarkers, which may explain the link between obesity, physical activity and breast cancer risk, has not been investigated prospectively in this group. This paper describes the design of a prospective cohort study investigating the role of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. Participants will be recruited from breast cancer family risk clinics and genetics clinics. Lifestyle risk factors that will be investigated will include body composition, metabolic syndrome and its components, physical activity and dietary intake. PBMC telomere length will be measured as a potential predictor of breast cancer occurrence. Measurements will be completed on entry to the study and repeated at two years and five years. Participants will also be followed annually by questionnaire to track changes in risk factor status and to record cancer occurrence. Data will be analysed using multiple regression models. The study has an accrual target of 352 participants. The results from this study will provide valuable information regarding the role of modifiable lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer in women with a deleterious mutation in the BRCA gene. Additionally, the study will attempt to identify potential blood biomarkers which may be predictive

Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates

Science.gov (United States)

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2010-01-01

Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.

Occurrence of Phlebitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Wen P; Peng, Yu X

Peripheral venous catheters (PVCs) are commonly used in clinical practice. However, varying degrees of phlebitis often occur in patients receiving intravenous injections. The relevant literature suggests that phlebitis occurrence is highly associated with the catheter gauge, insertion site, and catheterization duration. Nevertheless, no meta-analysis has been performed on the influence of these three factors on the occurrence of phlebitis. The objective of this study was to determine whether any significant differences exist in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters of 20 gauge or smaller and those larger than 20 gauge, between catheters inserted in the antecubital fossa and those inserted in other locations on the upper limbs, or between catheters inserted for more than 96 hours and those inserted for 96 hours or less. Using a systematic approach, we searched for literature published between 2006 and 2017 in the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, ProQuest, and Cochrane Library databases. We used Comprehensive Meta-analysis Version 2 to perform our meta-analysis. After the screening and review processes, we identified 17 studies that met our selection conditions. Among these studies, 14 contained complete data for meta-analysis. These studies involved 4,343 patients and 5,846 PVCs. Regarding the overall effect size in the meta-analysis, the results of the forest plot comparing catheters of 20 gauge or smaller and those larger than 20 gauge presented a risk ratio (RR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [0.67, 1.17], p = .380), indicating no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters of the aforementioned gauges. The results of the forest plot comparing catheters inserted in the antecubital fossa and those inserted in other locations on the upper limbs presented an RR of 1.05 (95% confidence interval [0.82, 1.34], p = .696), indicating no statistically significant difference in

Developing of risk-hedging CO2-emission policy. Part II: risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis and conclusions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

1996-01-01

This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risk associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO 2 emissions are reviewed here: (1) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (2) economic growth might be reduced; (3) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (4) early action might cost more than later action; (5) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (6) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (7) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risk associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO 2 emissions at the present (early 1990s) level. This is turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duftschmid, K.E.

1994-05-01

A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

Dynamic behavior of potentially unstable soils and application of model for seismic risk reduction from liquefaction occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheshov, Vlatko

2002-11-01

Throughout the last decades, liquefaction phenomenon has been one of the most frequently discussed subjects in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Liquefaction has been a problem arousing considerable attention among the world scientists. The consequences from liquefaction occurrence have been present after each stronger earthquake. We have been witnesses of several strong earthquakes (Kobe - Japan, Chi Chi-Taiwan, Bhuj-India) that have occurred in the last decade. In these earthquakes, the liquefaction phenomenon caused severe damage to structures, loss of their functioning and indirect loss of human lives. Liquefaction as a phenomenon should not arouse fear but should call for serious elaboration and attention instead. The destructive nature of liquefaction could be mitigated, i.e., overcome in two ways: avoiding construction at locations characterized by high liquefaction potential which is not always possible and taking of measures for improvement of foundation soil. Finding out suitable measures for improvement of soil and thus mitigating the liquefaction potential has been the main incentive for the elaboration of this dissertation. The dissipation method involving the use of vertical drains as one of the measures for improvement of soils has been elaborated in details in this scientific work. The doctoral dissertation has been realized through experimental and analytical investigations. The experimental investigations done in the first phase represent model seismic shaking table tests of the efficiency of vertical drains (prefabricated and gravel drains). The analytical investigations in this phase have involved mathematical simulation of the effect of vertical drains upon pore pressure state during the experiments. The second phase of the experimental investigations has involved model tests of the behavior of pile foundations in soils susceptible to liquefaction with installed prefabricated drains. In this phase, the 'p - y' relationships have been

Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

Occurrence of clinical mastitis in primiparous Estonian dairy cows in different housing conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aasmäe Birgit

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Objectives of the study were to document the impact of some management factors on the occurrence of clinical mastitis in primiparous dairy cows and to identify common udder pathogens of clinical mastitis in freshly calved heifers and multiparous cows on the day of calving. Methods A one-year study was conducted during 2004 and 2005 in 11 selected Estonian dairy herds. Data consisted of 68 heifers with clinical mastitis and 995 heifers without clinical mastitis on the day of calving. Multivariable logistic regression with a random herd effect was used to investigate any association between housing system or the time interval from movement of heifers to the calving facility and day of calving on occurrence of clinical mastitis. Milk samples for bacteriological analysis were collected from affected heifers and multiparous cows on the day of calving Results Clinical mastitis occurrence in the study population of freshly calved heifers equalled 6.1 %. Housing system was not a significant risk factor for clinical mastitis of freshly calved heifers. Moving heifers to the cowbarn less than two weeks before calving in tiestall farms increased risk (OR = 5.9 p = 0.001 for clinical mastitis at parturition. The most frequently isolated udder pathogens among heifers were Escherichia coli (22.1%, Streptococcus uberis (19.1% and coagulase-negative staphylococci (8.8%. In comparison, the main pathogen in multiparous cows with clinical mastitis at parturition was Staphylococcus aureus (11.2%. Conclusion Moving heifers to the calving facilities too late in tiestall farms increased risk for clinical mastitis at parturition. The isolated udder pathogens did not differ significantly in tiestall farms compared to freestall farms in heifers, but differences were found between heifers and multiparous cows at parturition.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Matt Davies

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Dynamic burstiness of word-occurrence and network modularity in textbook systems

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Xue-Mei; Yoon, Chang No; Youn, Hyejin; Lee, Sang Hoon; Jung, Jean S.; Han, Seung Kee

2017-12-01

We show that the dynamic burstiness of word occurrence in textbook systems is attributed to the modularity of the word association networks. At first, a measure of dynamic burstiness is introduced to quantify burstiness of word occurrence in a textbook. The advantage of this measure is that the dynamic burstiness is decomposable into two contributions: one coming from the inter-event variance and the other from the memory effects. Comparing network structures of physics textbook systems with those of surrogate random textbooks without the memory or variance effects are absent, we show that the network modularity increases systematically with the dynamic burstiness. The intra-connectivity of individual word representing the strength of a tie with which a node is bound to a module accordingly increases with the dynamic burstiness, suggesting individual words with high burstiness are strongly bound to one module. Based on the frequency and dynamic burstiness, physics terminology is classified into four categories: fundamental words, topical words, special words, and common words. In addition, we test the correlation between the dynamic burstiness of word occurrence and network modularity using a two-state model of burst generation.

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-10-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health or safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report covers the period from April 1 through June 30, 1990. The report discusses six abnormal occurrences, none involving a nuclear power plant. There were five abnormal occurrences at NRC licensees: (1) deficiencies in brachytherapy program; (2) a radiation overexposure of a radiographer; (3) a medical diagnostic misadministration; (4) administration of iodine-131 to a lactating female with subsequent uptake by her infant; and (5) a medical therapy misadministration. An Agreement State (Arizona) reported an abnormal occurrence involving a medical diagnostic misadministration. The report also contains information that updates a previously reported occurrence

Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Karina Marques Salge

Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peng, Fengjiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min

2017-01-01

at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae....

Predictors of seizure occurrence in children undergoing pre-surgical monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Harini, Chellamani; Singh, Kanwaljit; Takeoka, Masanori; Parulkar, Isha; Bergin, Ann Marie; Loddenkemper, Tobias; Kothare, Sanjeev V

2013-10-01

-to-first-seizure in high and medium-frequency was less than in low-frequency group (pseizure during a mean length of stay of 5.24 days. Home seizure-frequency was the only predictor influencing occurrence of single/multiple seizures in the LTM unit. Patients with low seizure-frequency are at risk for completing the monitoring with less than the optimum number (seizures captured. Copyright © 2013 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

cooccurNet: an R package for co-occurrence network construction and analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Yuanqiang; Wu, Zhiqiang; Deng, Lizong; Wu, Aiping; Wu, Fan; Li, Kenli; Jiang, Taijiao; Peng, Yousong

2017-06-15

Previously, we developed a computational model to identify genomic co-occurrence networks that was applied to capture the coevolution patterns within genomes of influenza viruses. To facilitate easy public use of this model, an R package 'cooccurNet' is presented here. 'cooccurNet' includes functionalities of construction and analysis of residues (e.g. nucleotides, amino acids and SNPs) co-occurrence network. In addition, a new method for measuring residues coevolution, defined as residue co-occurrence score (RCOS), is proposed and implemented in 'cooccurNet' based on the co-occurrence network. 'cooccurNet' is publicly available on CRAN repositories under the GPL-3 Open Source License ( http://cran.r-project.org/package=cooccurNet ). taijiao@ibms.pumc.edu.cn or pys2013@hnu.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

2016-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

Science.gov (United States)

Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

2018-01-01

Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Lopez-Guzman

Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

2018-01-01

Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

Radon measurements in Ghana: health risk assesment at the Lake Bosomtwi basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andam, A.A.B.; Addison, E.C.K.; Nani, E.K.; Amankwah, E.A.

2007-01-01

The need to assess the risk of exposure to radon and its daughters stems from the reality, that radon is a potential carcinogenic. We report Radon-222 risk assessment, from measurements on soil and sediments taken from six towns along the Lake Bosomtwi basin at two levels of 10cm and 20cm. The current and future prospects of Lake Bosomtwi, the largest natural lake in Ghana, make this assessment imperative, since radon forms half of natural background radiation. Spatial Analyser Decision Assistant (SADA) algorithms were used to model the measured radon concentrations under two land-use scenarios, namely residential and recreational. Setting the data under a targeted risk of 1E-6,we found that the external exposure was below that of the maximum concentrations to the measurements. This indicates that the radon levels around those towns as of the time of the measurements is low and below limits which can cause carcinogenic threats. The mean risk associated with the sampled locations was found to be 9E-11 at the recreational areas and 2E-8 at residential centres. To confirm the authenticity of the point risk analysis, geospatial modelling based on inverse distance interpolation schemes were performed. The results tally closely with that of the measured point risk analysis with and error margin of 2% and 1.3 % for both land use scenarios at 10 cm and 20 cm depth respectively. (au)

UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-01

This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items.

UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items

Association between CYP2D6 Genotypes and the Risk of Antidepressant Discontinuation, Dosage Modification and the Occurrence of Maternal Depression during Pregnancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anick Bérard

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Importance: Polymorphic expression of drug metabolizing enzymes affects the metabolism of antidepressants, and thus can contribute to drug response and/or adverse events. Pregnancy itself can affect CYP2D6 activity with profound variations determined by CYP2D6 genotype.Objective: To investigate the association between CYP2D6 genotype and the risk of antidepressant discontinuation, dosage modification, and the occurrence of maternal CYP2D6, Antidepressants, Depression during pregnancy.Setting: Data from the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists (OTIS Antidepressants in Pregnancy Cohort, 2006–2010, were used. Women were eligible if they were within 14 completed weeks of pregnancy at recruitment and exposed to an antidepressant or having any exposures considered non-teratogenic.Main Outcomes and Measures: Gestational antidepressant usage was self-reported and defined as continuous/discontinued use, and non-use; dosage modification was further documented. Maternal depression and anxiety were measured every trimester using the telephone interviewer-administered Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Beck Anxiety Inventory, respectively. Saliva samples were collected and used for CYP2D6 genotype analyses. Logistic regression models were used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR with 95% confidence intervals.Results: A total of 246 pregnant women were included in the study. The majority were normal metabolizers (NM, n = 204, 83%; 3.3% (n = 8 were ultrarapid metabolizers (UM, 5.7% (n = 14 poor metabolizers (PM, and 8.1% (n = 20 intermediate metabolizers (IM. Among study subjects, 139 women were treated with antidepressants at the beginning of pregnancy, and 21 antidepressant users (15% discontinued therapy during pregnancy. Adjusting for depressive symptoms, and other potential confounders, the risk of discontinuing antidepressants during pregnancy was nearly four times higher in slow metabolizers (poor or intermediate

Occurrence of Perfluorooctanoic Acid and Perfluorooctane Sulfonate in Milk and Yogurt and Their Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenni Xing

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Although perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS have been identified in milk and dairy products in many regions, knowledge on their occurrence in Xinjiang (China is rare. This study was conducted to measure the levels of PFOA and PFOS in milk and yogurt from Xinjiang and to investigate the average daily intake (ADI of these two compounds. PFOA and PFOS levels were analyzed using ultrasonic extraction with methanol and solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. Retail milk and yogurt samples present higher detection rates (39.6% and 48.1% and mean concentrations (24.5 and 31.8 ng/L of PFOS than those of PFOA (33.0% and 37.0%; 16.2 and 22.6 ng/L, respectively. For raw milk samples, only PFOS was detected. The differences in the levels of the two compounds between samples from the north and south regions were observed, and northern regions showed higher pollution levels than southern regions. On the basis of the retail milk measurements and consumption data, the ADIs of PFOA and PFOS for Xinjiang adults were calculated to be 0.0211 and 0.0318 ng/kg/day, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated intakes of PFOA and PFOS varied among different groupings (age, area, gender, and race and increased with increasing age. Relevant hazard ratios were found to be far less than 1.0, and this finding suggested that no imminent health damages were produced by PFOA and PFOS intake via milk and yogurt consumption in the Xinjiang population.

Occurrence of Perfluorooctanoic Acid and Perfluorooctane Sulfonate in Milk and Yogurt and Their Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Zhenni; Lu, Jianjiang; Liu, Zilong; Li, Shanman; Wang, Gehui; Wang, Xiaolong

2016-10-21

Although perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have been identified in milk and dairy products in many regions, knowledge on their occurrence in Xinjiang (China) is rare. This study was conducted to measure the levels of PFOA and PFOS in milk and yogurt from Xinjiang and to investigate the average daily intake (ADI) of these two compounds. PFOA and PFOS levels were analyzed using ultrasonic extraction with methanol and solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Retail milk and yogurt samples present higher detection rates (39.6% and 48.1%) and mean concentrations (24.5 and 31.8 ng/L) of PFOS than those of PFOA (33.0% and 37.0%; 16.2 and 22.6 ng/L, respectively). For raw milk samples, only PFOS was detected. The differences in the levels of the two compounds between samples from the north and south regions were observed, and northern regions showed higher pollution levels than southern regions. On the basis of the retail milk measurements and consumption data, the ADIs of PFOA and PFOS for Xinjiang adults were calculated to be 0.0211 and 0.0318 ng/kg/day, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated intakes of PFOA and PFOS varied among different groupings (age, area, gender, and race) and increased with increasing age. Relevant hazard ratios were found to be far less than 1.0, and this finding suggested that no imminent health damages were produced by PFOA and PFOS intake via milk and yogurt consumption in the Xinjiang population.

Current issues in ALS epidemiology: Variation of ALS occurrence between populations and physical activity as a risk factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Luna, J; Logroscino, G; Couratier, P; Marin, B

2017-05-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare neurodegenerative disease with a fatal outcome. This review aims to report key epidemiological features of ALS in relation to the hypothesis of variation between populations, to summarize environmental hypothesis and to highlight current issues that deserve much considerations. Epidemiological ALS studies have shown a variation of incidence, mortality and prevalence between geographical areas and different populations. These data could support the notion that genetic factors, especially populations' ancestries, along with environmental and lifestyle factors, play a significant role in the occurrence of the disease. To date, there is no strong evidence to confirm an association between a particular environmental factor and ALS. Physical activity (PA) has been extensively evaluated. Recent studies support with the best evidence level that PA in general population is not a risk factor for ALS. However, further research is needed to clarify the association of PA in some occupations and some athletic activities. Epidemiological research based on multicenter international collaboration is essential to provide new data on ALS especially in some regions of the world that are to date poorly represented in the ALS literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Measuring Systemic Risk of Banking in Indonesia: Conditional Value at Risk Model Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harjum Muharam

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Systemic risk is a risk of collapse of the financial system that would cause the financial system is not functioning properly. Measurement of systemic risk in the financial institutions, especially banks are crucial, because banks are highly vulnerable to financial crisis. In this study, to estimate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR used quantile regression. Samples in this study of 9 banks have total assets of the largest in Indonesia. Testing the correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR in this study using Spearman correlation and Kendall's Tau. There are five banks that have a significant correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR, meanwhile four others banks in the sample did not have a significant correlation. However, the correlation coefficient is below 0.50, which indicates that there is a weak correlation between VaR and CoVaR.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5296

Occurrence of antibodies to Anaplasma phagocytophilum in patients with suspected tick-borne encephalitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zuzana Kalinová

2015-09-01

None of the examined patients with suspected TBE had the disease confirmed. Hoever, as shown by the results, the relative risk of occurrence of anaplasmosis is higher in people examined for some another vector-borne disease (in this case TBE. Therefore, the performance of screening examinations in patients suspected of having any tick-borne disease is very important.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

Is energy imparted a good measure of the radiation risk associated with CT examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huda, W.

1984-01-01

The dose distribution in a Rando phantom has been measured for typical EMI 5005 CT scans of the head, chest, abdomen and pelvis. These dose distributions have been used to generate quantitative estimates of the somatic and genetic radiation risks associated with these CT examinations and also to measure the total energy imparted during each scan. A comparison has been made between the radiation risk estimates and the energy imparted measurements. The energy imparted measurements are not a good indicator of the somatic and/or genetic risks when one type of CT scan is compared with another. However, for a given type of scan, the energy imparted may be a reasonable indicator of the relative somatic risks associated with different CT examinations. Considerable care should be taken when interpreting and using any measured value of energy imparted in a radiological examination since published values of the risk per unit energy imparted can significantly underestimate the radiation risk. (author)

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Performance Analysis of Occurrences January 1, 2011-December 31, 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ludwig, M

2012-03-16

30 DOE sites that reported occurrences into ORPS during January 2011 through December 2011, 28 had effort hours available in CAIRS. Two sites had not submitted effort hours data to CAIRS as of the time data was pulled for this report. In those two cases, third quarter data was used as an estimate of fourth quarter data. The use of estimated data may introduce minor errors in the average, median, and Pearson calculations. Using the effort hours and the frequency of occurrences by site, a rate of occurrence frequency per 100 FTE workers was calculated. This rate is similar to the injury/illness frequency rate: the number of injury/illness cases per 100 FTE workers. To validate that this rate was appropriate to use, we compared the effort hours and the frequency of occurrences by site to determine if a relationship exists between the two, e.g. the more effort hours a site has, the more occurrences they tend to have. This hypothesis was tested using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient Test. The correlation coefficient measures the strength of the linear relationship between effort hours and occurrence frequency. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient Test will determine if the true correlation coefficient is equal to zero (no relationship exists), or if the correlation coefficient is not equal to zero (a relationship exists). Values approaching 1.00 show a more positive correlation. Simple linear regression was also used to display a trend line and to test if a one-way relationship exists between effort hours predicting the number of occurrences a site will have. Using the Pearson Correlation test, for the NNSA sites, effort hours and the number of occurrences are significantly and positively correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.90, as was also seen in the previous report (correlation coefficient of 0.67). All DOE sites are positively correlated with a coefficient of 0.85. As the effort hours increase, so does the number of occurrences and vice versa. Based on the

The instability of downside risk measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varga-Haszonits, I; Kondor, I

2008-01-01

We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

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Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeighami, E.A.; Walsh, P.J.; Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

1983-01-01

The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/10 6 /rad-year to 6/10 6 /rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

2000-01-01

Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

The effect of production type and antimicrobial usage on the occurrence of tetracycline resistant E. coli in danish slaughter pig farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Struve, Tina; Vigre, Håkan; Wingstrand, Anne

The Qualysafe project was initiated in 2007 to support and strengthen the sustainable production systems in Danish food production. One of the objectives of the epidemiological investigation was to find new methods to improve food safety in conventional as well as in alternative pig production sy...... of potential risk factors on the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in animal production....... (organic, free range and conventional farms) was a risk factor for occurrence of antimicrobial resistance and Tetracycline usage was regarded as an intervening factor between production type and occurrence of antimicrobial resistance. Therefore, the effect of production type and Tetracycline usage...... was estimated in two separate models using logistic regression, taking into account the correlation of results obtained from the same farm. Among the 411 isolates, 129 was found resistant to Tetracycline (Organic: 10%, Free Range: 27 % Conventional: 39 %). Differences was seen in the consumption pattern among...

Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1{sup st} and 2{sup nd} terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1{sup st} term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2{sup nd} term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk.

The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon

2015-01-01

In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1 st and 2 nd terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1 st term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2 nd term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk

Occurrence, sources, and fate of pharmaceuticals in aquatic environment and soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, W C

2014-04-01

With the rapid economic development, a better living condition leads to longer life expectancy, which increased the total population, in particular the elderly group. It may result in increase in the demand of pharmaceuticals for people in domestic use or in hospital. Although most sewage treatment plants or waste water treatment plantsmet the regulatory requirement, there are still many pharmaceuticals removed incompletely and thus discharged to the environment. Therefore, the pharmaceuticals residue draws the public concern because they might cause adverse effects on the organism even human beings. Recently, many studies have published on the source and occurrence as well as the fate of pharmaceuticals all over the world. This paper summarized and reviewed the recent studies on the sources, occurrence, fate and the effects of the most common pharmaceuticals. Finally, it gave the suggestion and risk management for controlling the pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards standardized measurement of adverse events in spine surgery: conceptual model and pilot evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyo Richard A

2006-06-01

kappa = 0.44. Adverse occurrence severity rating had fair agreement (mean weighted kappa = 0.33 when using a scale based on the JCAHO Sentinel Event Policy, but agreement was substantial for severity ratings on a new 11-point numerical severity scale (ICC = 0.74. There was excellent inter-rater agreement for a lumbar degenerative disease severity score (ICC = 0.98 and an index of surgery invasiveness (ICC = 0.99. Conclusion Composite measures of disease severity and surgery invasiveness may allow development of risk-adjusted predictive models for adverse events in spine surgery. Standard measures of adverse events and risk adjustment may also facilitate post-marketing surveillance of spinal devices, effectiveness research, and quality improvement.

Occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls and heavy metals in surface sediments from a large eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chaohu)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

He, Wei; Bai, Ze-Lin; Liu, Wen-Xiu

2016-01-01

Surface sediment from large and eutrophic Lake Chaohu was investigated to determine the occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and heavy metals in one of the five biggest freshwater lakes in China. Total concentration of PCBs (Σ34PCBs) in Lake...... and microbial degradation accounted for 34.2 % and 65.8 % of total PCBs using PMF, and PMF revealed that natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals accounted for 38.1 % and 61.8 %, respectively. CA indicated that some toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd, In, Tl, and Hg) were associated with Ca–Na–Mg minerals......, and Hg were at levels of environmental concern. The sediment in the drinking water source area (DWSA) was threatened by heavy metals from other areas, and some fundamental solutions were proposed to protect the DWSA....

Urinary incontinence in very young and mostly nulliparous women with a history of regular organised high-impact trampoline training: occurrence and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Eliasson, Kerstin; Edner, Ann; Mattsson, Eva

2008-05-01

The aim of this study was to examine the occurrence of urinary incontinence (UI) in mostly nulliparous women with a history of regular organised trampoline training as adolescents and to identify possible predictors. Female trampolinists in Sweden with licence for trampolining between 1995--1999 (n = 305), with a median age of 21 (range 18-44) years answered retrospectively a validated questionnaire. Competition with double somersaults had been performed by 85 women, the "competition group" (CG), while 220 women comprised the "recreational group" (RG). Of the trampolinists with UI during trampolining, 76% continued to leak. In CG, 57% and, in RG, 48% reported current UI. Strong predictors for UI were inability to interrupt micturition (p trampolining (p trampolining after menarche increased the risk of UI (p trampolining cannot be ruled out.

Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

2014-04-01

A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

2014-01-01

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

Analysis, occurrence, fate and risks of proton pump inhibitors, their metabolites and transformation products in aquatic environment: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosma, Christina I.; Lambropoulou, Dimitra A.; Albanis, Triantafyllos A.

2016-01-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) which include omeprazole, esomeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole and rabeprazole, are extensively used for the relief of gastro-intestinal disorders. Despite their high worldwide consumption, PPIs are extensively metabolized in human bodies and therefore are not regularly detected in monitoring studies. Very recently, however, it has been shown that some omeprazole metabolites may enter and are likely to persist in aquatic environment. Hence, to fully assess the environmental exposures and risks associated with PPIs, it is important to better understand and evaluate the fate and behavior not only of the parent compound but also of their metabolites and their transformation products arising from biotic and abiotic processes (hydrolysis, photodegradation, biodegradation etc.) in the environment. In this light, the purpose of this review is to summarize the present state of knowledge on the introduction and behavior of these chemicals in natural and engineering systems and highlight research needs and gaps. It draws attention to their transformation, the increase contamination by their metabolites/TPs in different environmental matrices and their potential adverse effects in the environment. Furthermore, existing research on analytical developments with respect to sample treatment, separation and detection of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs is provided. - Highlights: • Occurrence and fate of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs in the aquatic environment • Overview of the analytical methods applied, using LC-MS techniques • Omeprazole attended the most frequent analysis • Determination and behavior of omeprazole's metabolites/TPs in the environment • More ecotoxicological research is needed to assess the risks of PPIs.

Analysis, occurrence, fate and risks of proton pump inhibitors, their metabolites and transformation products in aquatic environment: A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kosma, Christina I. [Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45110 (Greece); Lambropoulou, Dimitra A., E-mail: dlambro@chem.auth.gr [Department of Chemistry, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124 (Greece); Albanis, Triantafyllos A. [Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45110 (Greece)

2016-11-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) which include omeprazole, esomeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole and rabeprazole, are extensively used for the relief of gastro-intestinal disorders. Despite their high worldwide consumption, PPIs are extensively metabolized in human bodies and therefore are not regularly detected in monitoring studies. Very recently, however, it has been shown that some omeprazole metabolites may enter and are likely to persist in aquatic environment. Hence, to fully assess the environmental exposures and risks associated with PPIs, it is important to better understand and evaluate the fate and behavior not only of the parent compound but also of their metabolites and their transformation products arising from biotic and abiotic processes (hydrolysis, photodegradation, biodegradation etc.) in the environment. In this light, the purpose of this review is to summarize the present state of knowledge on the introduction and behavior of these chemicals in natural and engineering systems and highlight research needs and gaps. It draws attention to their transformation, the increase contamination by their metabolites/TPs in different environmental matrices and their potential adverse effects in the environment. Furthermore, existing research on analytical developments with respect to sample treatment, separation and detection of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs is provided. - Highlights: • Occurrence and fate of PPIs and their metabolites/TPs in the aquatic environment • Overview of the analytical methods applied, using LC-MS techniques • Omeprazole attended the most frequent analysis • Determination and behavior of omeprazole's metabolites/TPs in the environment • More ecotoxicological research is needed to assess the risks of PPIs.

Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moore George E

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Results Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Conclusion Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.

A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

2009-04-15

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Factors affecting the occurrence of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis depending on the haemorrhage definition.

Science.gov (United States)

Sledzińska-Dźwigał, M; Sobolewski, Piotr; Szczuchniak, W

2013-01-01

Symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH) remains the most feared complication of systemic thrombolysis in patients with ischaemic stroke. The aim of the study was to analyze the impact of different factors on the occurrence of sICH, depending on definition used. We retrospectively evaluated the influence of several factors on the occurrence of sICH (according to definitions used in ECASS2, SITS-MOST and NINDS studies) in 200 patients treated with systemic thrombolysis from 2006 to 2011. Multivariate analysis of impact of individual variables on the occurrence of haemorrhagic transformation (HT) and parenchymal haemorrhage type 2 (PH2) were performed. Haemorrhagic transformation occurred in 35 cases (17.5%). SICH was found in 10 cases according to ECASS2, in 7 cases according to SITS and in 13 cases according to NINDS. Older age was related to higher risk of sICH, regardless which definition was used (ECASS2: p = 0.014, SITS-MOST: p = 0.048, NINDS: p = 0.008), and female sex was related to higher risk of sICH according to NINDS and ECASS2 definition (p = 0.002 and p = 0.04, respectively). Blood glucose level and high NIHSS score (> 14 pts) were found as risk factor of sICH in ECASS2 definition (p = 0.044 and p = 0.03, respectively). In multivariate logistic regression higher NIHSS scores were associated with HT independent of age, gender and glucose level (p = 0.012). Multivariate analysis showed no impact of age, gender, severity of stroke and glucose level on presence of PH2. Definition of sICH can determine variables that are related to a high risk of this complication. In our study most factors correlated with sICH using the ECASS2 definition.

Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zuhairan Y Yunan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

Risk factors associated with the occurrence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis of the lower limb.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fenghe; Wang, Xuehu; Huang, Wen; Ren, Wei; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Mao; Zhao, Yu

2014-08-01

The aim of our study is to investigate the prevalence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in the lower limbs and to evaluate the associated risk factors. A total of 322 patients with acute deep venous thrombosis confirmed by CT venography or Doppler ultrasonography were studied. The diagnosis of silent pulmonary embolism was established by computed tomography pulmonary arteriography (CTPA). The association between covariates and the prevalence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs were assessed using chi-square test and multivariable regression. The incidence of silent pulmonary embolism was 33.5% (108 in 322 patients) in all patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. Chi-square test showed male gender, the right lower limb, proximal location of the thrombus, unprovoked venous thrombosis and coexisting heart diseases were related to a higher incidence of silent pulmonary embolism in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. The multivariate regression analysis confirmed that the risk factors associated with silent pulmonary embolism in deep venous thrombosis patients included the right side and proximal location of the thrombus (odds ratio: 2.023, 95% CI: 1.215-3.368; odds ratio: 3.610, 95% CI: 1.772-7.354), unprovoked venous thrombosis (odds ratio: 2.037, 95% CI: 1.188-3.493), coexisting heart diseases (odds ratio: 4.507, 95% CI: 2.667-7.618). Silent pulmonary embolism occurred frequently in patients with deep venous thrombosis in lower limbs. The right side, the proximal location of the thrombus, unprovoked venous thrombosis and coexisting heart diseases increased the risk for the occurrence of silent pulmonary embolism. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Knowledge of Risk Factors and Preventive Measures of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of the study was to elicit the knowledge of risk factors and preventive measures of hypertension among Child Bearing Mothers (CBMs) in Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. The study adopted the descriptive research design. Specifically, three objectives with three corresponding research ...

Occurrence and Characterization Microstructure of Iron Impurities in Halloysite.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Rong; Yan, Chunjie; Wang, Hongquan; Xiao, Guoqi; Tu, Dong

2015-09-01

The quality of the clays and over all halloysite are mostly associated with minor amounts of ferruginous impurities content, since this element gives an undesirable reddish color to the halloysite mineral. Hence, finding out the modes of occurrence of iron in halloysite is of prime importance in the value addition and optimum utilization of halloysite. In order to analyze the occurrence of iron impurities in halloysite, Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were combined with wet chemical analysis methods to study the low-grade halloysite. The results indicated that the mineral phases of iron impurities in the concentrates are mainly composed of amounts of magnetite, goethite and hematite. Two types of occurrences for iron impurities have been found. One is single crystalline mineral consist in the halloysite, which contains three different phases of Goethite FeO(OH) (44.75%), Magnetite Fe3O4 (27.43%) and Hematite Fe2O3 (31.96%). The other is amorphous Fe-Al-Si glial materials. This study is of significance in the theoretical research on the halloysite mineralogy and in the developmental practice of halloysite in coal measures.

Qualitative risk assessment: a conceptual context and three diverse applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elsea, K.J.; Conger, D.S.

1992-01-01

Risk is defined as the probability of an occurrence multiplied by the consequences of that occurrence. Such a definition implies a quantitative or at least a mathematical operation. However, qualitative uses of risk have proved useful tools in incident investigation and management decision making. This paper provides a conceptual context for qualitative risk assessment and discusses three efforts at subject organizations [an aerospace firm, a US Department of Energy weapons-related facility, and a commercial nuclear reactor] that have applied qualitative risk techniques for different uses and with different results. A lessons-learned section summarizes and provides future direction

Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

1993-05-01

The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

A Time Series Model of the Occurrence of Gastric Dilatation-Volvulus in a Population of Dogs

OpenAIRE

Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collecte...

Risk Assessment Generated by Usage of ICT and Information Security Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilie TAMAS

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Information societies involve the usage of information technology and communications (ITC on a large scale. The dependence on ITC is an unquestionable problem in the present, because we assist to a generality of computers usage in all economic and social life activities. That is why organization information systems became accessible at the global level and there are permanently open for a quick exchange of information between different categories of users located by different geographical nods. The ITC usage involves the existing of some risks that should be known, evaluation and based on these, we must have information systems security measure. We consider that the risk is an indicator very important that must be permanently assess in the usage process of the information system based on ITC. Risk management suppose a permanently evaluation of these problems and also restrain by some practical actions who goes to the decrease of its effects. From the expose point of view, in this paper work it is presented the results of research based on specialty literature and current cases from practical activities, regarding the risks of ITC usage and their diminishing measure. There are distinguished the main factors (threat, vulnerability and impact who affect the information risk and on the other way, diminishing measure of the action to these factors for optimum working of an economic and social organism who use ITC. We consider that through proposed measures we assume safety in design process, implement and usage of the informational systems based on ITC.

Toxicology, occurrence and risk characterisation of the chloropropanols in food: 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol.

Science.gov (United States)

Andres, Susanne; Appel, Klaus E; Lampen, Alfonso

2013-08-01

Great attention has been paid to chloropropanols like 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol and the related substance glycidol due to their presence in food and concerns about their toxic potential as carcinogens. The other chloropropanols 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol have been found in certain foods, but occurrence data are generally limited for these compounds. 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol has the most toxicological relevance showing clear carcinogenic effects in rats possibly via a genotoxic mechanism. The dietary exposure to 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol is quite low. Calculated "Margins of Exposure" values are above 10,000. It is concluded that the 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol exposure is of low concern for human health. The toxicology of 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol has not been adequately investigated. Its toxicological potential regarding hepatotoxic effects seems to be lower than that of 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol. Limited data show that 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol occurs only in trace amounts in food, indicating that exposure to 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol seems to be also of low concern for human health. The dietary 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol burden appears to be lower than that of 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol. An adequate risk assessment for 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol cannot be performed due to limited data on the toxicology and occurrence in food. This article reviews the relevant information about the toxicology, occurrence and dietary exposure to the chloropropanols 2-monochloro-1,3-propanediol, 1,3-dichloro-2-propanol and 2,3-dichloro-1-propanol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

Postpartum infections: occurrence, healtcare contacts and association with breastfeeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahnfeldt-Mollerup, Peder; Petersen, Line Kirkeby; Kragstrup, J.

2012-01-01

% of all women had experienced one or more self-reported episode of infection. Breast infections (12%) were most frequent, followed by wound (3%), airway (3%), vaginal (3%) and urinary tract infections (3%), endometritis (2%) and "other infections" (2%). Of the women with an infection, 66% (265 of 395......Objective. To investigate the following: (i) the occurrence of postpartum infections; (ii) the frequency of contact with either a general practitioner or a hospital due to postpartum infections; and (iii) the association of postpartum infections with continuation of breastfeeding. Design. Cross...... from general practitioner and hospital records. Main outcome measures. The distribution of different infections, as well as the overall occurrence of any infection, was evaluated according to mode of delivery and breastfeeding status (stopped/continued). Results. Within four weeks after delivery, 24...

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodríguez-Prieto Víctor

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Bovine tuberculosis (bTB is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. Results We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1 incident cattle farms, (2 number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3 prevalence in wild boar, (4 number of sampled cattle, (5 persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6 prevalence in red deer, (7 proportion of beef farms, and (8 farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. Conclusions The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive b

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Prieto, Víctor; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Barasona, José Angel; Acevedo, Pelayo; Romero, Beatriz; Rodriguez-Campos, Sabrina; Gortázar, Christian; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Vicente, Joaquín

2012-08-30

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

Risk management in the entrepreneurship in Romania in the context of the economic crisis

OpenAIRE

Felicia Adriana LUPU

2009-01-01

The future of business depends, in a determinant way, on the manner in which the companies have the risk under control. In businesses, risk management entails organized activity to manage uncertainty and threats and involves people following procedures and using tools in order to ensure conformance with risk-management policies. In practice, balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high loss but lower probability of occurrence can often b...

Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory M. Foggitt

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

PLANET OCCURRENCE WITHIN 0.25 AU OF SOLAR-TYPE STARS FROM KEPLER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Howard, Andrew W.; Marcy, Geoffrey W. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bryson, Stephen T.; Rowe, Jason F.; Borucki, William J.; Koch, David G.; Lissauer, Jack J. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Jenkins, Jon M.; Van Cleve, Jeffrey; Caldwell, Douglas A. [SETI Institute/NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Dunham, Edward W. [Lowell Observatory, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States); Gautier, Thomas N. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Cochran, William D. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Latham, David W.; Torres, Guillermo [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Brown, Timothy M. [Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope, Goleta, CA 93117 (United States); Gilliland, Ronald L. [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Buchhave, Lars A. [Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen University (Denmark); Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen, E-mail: howard@astro.berkeley.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); and others

2012-08-01

We report the distribution of planets as a function of planet radius, orbital period, and stellar effective temperature for orbital periods less than 50 days around solar-type (GK) stars. These results are based on the 1235 planets (formally 'planet candidates') from the Kepler mission that include a nearly complete set of detected planets as small as 2 R{sub Circled-Plus }. For each of the 156,000 target stars, we assess the detectability of planets as a function of planet radius, R{sub p}, and orbital period, P, using a measure of the detection efficiency for each star. We also correct for the geometric probability of transit, R{sub *}/a. We consider first Kepler target stars within the 'solar subset' having T{sub eff} = 4100-6100 K, log g 4.0-4.9, and Kepler magnitude Kp < 15 mag, i.e., bright, main-sequence GK stars. We include only those stars having photometric noise low enough to permit detection of planets down to 2 R{sub Circled-Plus }. We count planets in small domains of R{sub p} and P and divide by the included target stars to calculate planet occurrence in each domain. The resulting occurrence of planets varies by more than three orders of magnitude in the radius-orbital period plane and increases substantially down to the smallest radius (2 R{sub Circled-Plus }) and out to the longest orbital period (50 days, {approx}0.25 AU) in our study. For P < 50 days, the distribution of planet radii is given by a power law, df/dlog R = k{sub R}R{sup {alpha}} with k{sub R} = 2.9{sup +0.5}{sub -0.4}, {alpha} = -1.92 {+-} 0.11, and R {identical_to} R{sub p}/R{sub Circled-Plus }. This rapid increase in planet occurrence with decreasing planet size agrees with the prediction of core-accretion formation but disagrees with population synthesis models that predict a desert at super-Earth and Neptune sizes for close-in orbits. Planets with orbital periods shorter than 2 days are extremely rare; for R{sub p} > 2 R{sub Circled-Plus} we measure an

The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yan; Fu Zhiwei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming; Liu Hongquan

2012-01-01

The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

Science.gov (United States)

DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

2000-01-01

A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Awareness of Measures for Reducing Health Risk of Using Low-Quality Irrigation Water in Morogoro, Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mayilla, Winfrida; Magayane, Flavianus; Konradsen, Flemming

2016-01-01

The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods includ...... that health education targeting at specific exposed group and their social-demographic characteristics is the potential measure in raising awareness of the potential health risk reduction measures when using low-quality irrigation water in irrigated agriculture.......The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods included...... a questionnaire survey with 60 farmers, 60 vegetable traders, and 70 consumers and four focus group discussions. General results show a low level of awareness of the health risk reduction measures in using low-quality irrigation water in all respondents’ categories. However, health protection measures...

Using species co-occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rozenfeld, Alejandro; Rahbek, Carsten

2011-01-01

Viable populations of species occur in a given place if three conditions are met: the environment at the place is suitable; the species is able to colonize it; co-occurrence is possible despite or because of interactions with other species. Studies investigating the effects of climate change...... on species have mainly focused on measuring changes in climate suitability. Complex interactions among species have rarely been explored in such studies. We extend network theory to the analysis of complex patterns of co-occurrence among species. The framework is used to explore the robustness of networks...... under climate change. With our data, we show that networks describing the geographic pattern of co-occurrence among species display properties shared by other complex networks, namely that most species are poorly connected to other species in the network and only a few are highly connected. In our...

Unusual occurrences during LMFR operation. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-10-01

Design of liquid metal cooled fast reactors (LMFRs) is still in evolution, and only a small number of LMFRs are in operation around the world. Specialists operating these LMFRs have gained valuable experience from incidents, failures, and other events that took place in the reactors. These unusual occurrences, lessons learned and measures undertaken to prevent recurrences are often either not reported in the literature, or reported only briefly and without sufficient detail. Hence there is a need for specialists designing and operating LMFRs to share their knowledge on unusual occurrences. Considerable experimental and theoretical knowledge in this field were collected by several Member states over the past decades. The needs in generalisation, review and documentation of fundamental knowledge in liquid metal cooled reactor technology were a major consideration in the recommendation by the International Working group on fast reactors for the IAEA to convene this Technical Committee meeting on the subject of unusual occurrences during LMFR operation and the consequences for reactor systems

Herd-level risk factors for the seropositivity to Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae and the occurrence of enzootic pneumonia among fattening pigs in areas of endemic infection and high pig density.

Science.gov (United States)

Nathues, H; Chang, Y M; Wieland, B; Rechter, G; Spergser, J; Rosengarten, R; Kreienbrock, L; Grosse Beilage, E

2014-08-01

The aim of the present study was to identify potential risk factors for the occurrence of enzootic pneumonia (EP) in herds situated in a region of high pig density, where a majority of herds is endemically infected with Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. Between 2006 and 2010, overall 100 herds were enrolled in a case-control study. Data were collected through personal interview with the farmers, clinical examination of pigs and their environments, and serological testing for M. hyopneumoniae, swine influenza virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus. There were 40 case herds (coughing index high, seroprevalence high) with a mean coughing index of 4.3 and a seroprevalence of 86.6%. There were two control groups. Control group I consisted of 25 herds (coughing index low, seroprevalence low) with mean values of 0.7 and 11.2%, and 35 herds were allocated to control group II (coughing index low, seroprevalence high) where the mean coughing index was 0.9 and seroprevalence 86.3%. Case herds and control II herds had an increased age of piglets at weaning compared to control I herds. Any contact between fattening pigs of different age during restocking of compartments increased the risk for the occurrence of EP in a herd. Finally, farms that use living animals for the exposure to gilts during the acclimatization and farms that had increased number of weaned piglets per sow and year were less likely to test positive for M. hyopneumoniae and less likely to develop clinical symptoms of EP in fattening pigs. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Family relationship, water contact and occurrence of Buruli ulcer in Benin.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghislain Emmanuel Sopoh

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium ulcerans disease (Buruli ulcer is the most widespread mycobacterial disease in the world after leprosy and tuberculosis. How M. ulcerans is introduced into the skin of humans remains unclear, but it appears that individuals living in the same environment may have different susceptibilities. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine whether frequent contacts with natural water sources, family relationship or the practice of consanguineous marriages are associated with the occurrence of Buruli ulcer (BU. DESIGN: Case control study. SETTING: Department of Atlantique, Benin. SUBJECTS: BU-confirmed cases that were diagnosed and followed up at the BU detection and treatment center (CDTUB of Allada (Department of the Atlantique, Benin during the period from January 1st, 2006, to June 30th, 2008, with three matched controls (persons who had no signs or symptoms of active or inactive BU for age, gender and village of residence per case. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURED: Contact with natural water sources, BU history in the family and the practice of consanguineous marriages. RESULTS: A total of 416 participants were included in this study, including 104 cases and 312 controls. BU history in the family (p<0.001, adjusted by daily contact with a natural water source (p = 0.007, was significantly associated with higher odds of having BU (OR; 95% CI = 5.5; 3.0-10.0. The practice of consanguineous marriage was not associated with the occurrence of BU (p = 0.40. Mendelian disorders could explain this finding, which may influence individual susceptibility by impairing immunity. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that a combination of genetic factors and behavioral risk factors may increase the susceptibility for developing BU.

Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

2005-08-01

Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

Neutron measuring device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatayama, Akiyoshi; Seki, Eiji; Kita, Yoshio; Nishitani, Takeo.

1993-01-01

The device of the present invention concerns measurement for neutrons in a tokamak type thermonuclear device and it can measure total amount of generated neutrons accurately throughout the operation period even if an error is caused in counted values by plasma disruption. That is, the device comprises (1) a means for detecting presence or absence of occurrence of plasma disruption and the time for the initiation of the occurrence, (2) a first data processing means for processing detection signals, (3) a means for detecting neutrons generated in plasmas and (4) a second data processing means for calculating integrated values for the number of neutrons generated from the start to the completion of electric discharge when no disruption occurs and calculating integrated values for the number of generated neutrons from the start of electric discharge to the time at the initiation of occurrence of the disruption when disruption is present. In the thus constituted device, even if an error is caused by frequent occurrence of plasma disruption, total time integrated amount of neutrons generated in the plasmas can be measured accurately. (I.S.)

Occurrence and spatial distribution of chemical contaminants in edible fish species collected from UK and proximate marine waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, A R; Mortimer, D; Holmes, M; Rose, M; Zhihua, L; Huang, X; Smith, F; Panton, S; Marshall, L

2018-05-01

The occurrence of a range of regulated and emerging organic environmental contaminants was investigated in 182 samples of edible marine fish sampled mainly from UK marine regions, but extending northerly to the coast of Norway and south to the Algarve. These species (sprats, mackerel, turbot, halibut, herring, grey mullet, sea bass, grey mullet, sardines, etc.) are among those considered to be at the highest risk of contamination with regulated contaminants such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but the occurrence of polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) was also investigated. Sub-sets of samples (50-75) were also analysed for emerging contaminants: polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated and mixed halogenated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans and biphenyls (PBDD/Fs, PXDD/Fs and PXBs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Contaminant occurrence varied with species and location, but all measured contaminants were detected, with sprats, sea bass, sardines, mackerel, and herring showing higher tissue concentrations. The concentrations of the different contaminants in the various samples were mapped utilising the GPS coordinate data of the capture locations to visualise spatial distribution levels. In terms of catch location, fish sampled from the coasts of southern Britain, north-western France and the Irish Sea appeared to contain proportionately higher levels of some contaminants - e.g. samples from the Irish Sea tended to show higher PCN concentrations, whereas higher levels of PCBs were observed in some fish sampled off the coasts of northern France. Similarly, samples of mullet from the southeast coast of UK showed much higher concentrations of BDE-99 than the other regions. In terms of occurrence trends, PCDD/F and PCB concentrations show a modest decline over the last decade but where limited background data is available for emerging

Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

1996-09-01

This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Curtis

1999-01-01

This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately

Linear discriminant analysis of character sequences using occurrences of words

KAUST Repository

Dutta, Subhajit; Chaudhuri, Probal; Ghosh, Anil

2014-01-01

Classification of character sequences, where the characters come from a finite set, arises in disciplines such as molecular biology and computer science. For discriminant analysis of such character sequences, the Bayes classifier based on Markov models turns out to have class boundaries defined by linear functions of occurrences of words in the sequences. It is shown that for such classifiers based on Markov models with unknown orders, if the orders are estimated from the data using cross-validation, the resulting classifier has Bayes risk consistency under suitable conditions. Even when Markov models are not valid for the data, we develop methods for constructing classifiers based on linear functions of occurrences of words, where the word length is chosen by cross-validation. Such linear classifiers are constructed using ideas of support vector machines, regression depth, and distance weighted discrimination. We show that classifiers with linear class boundaries have certain optimal properties in terms of their asymptotic misclassification probabilities. The performance of these classifiers is demonstrated in various simulated and benchmark data sets.

Linear discriminant analysis of character sequences using occurrences of words

KAUST Repository

Dutta, Subhajit

2014-02-01

Classification of character sequences, where the characters come from a finite set, arises in disciplines such as molecular biology and computer science. For discriminant analysis of such character sequences, the Bayes classifier based on Markov models turns out to have class boundaries defined by linear functions of occurrences of words in the sequences. It is shown that for such classifiers based on Markov models with unknown orders, if the orders are estimated from the data using cross-validation, the resulting classifier has Bayes risk consistency under suitable conditions. Even when Markov models are not valid for the data, we develop methods for constructing classifiers based on linear functions of occurrences of words, where the word length is chosen by cross-validation. Such linear classifiers are constructed using ideas of support vector machines, regression depth, and distance weighted discrimination. We show that classifiers with linear class boundaries have certain optimal properties in terms of their asymptotic misclassification probabilities. The performance of these classifiers is demonstrated in various simulated and benchmark data sets.

Sexual inactivity and occurrence of STIs in relation to weight status in women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gunge, Vibeke B; Juul, Kirsten E; van den Brule, Adriaan Jc

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine sexual inactivity and occurrence of selected sexually transmitted infections in relation to body mass index. We used data from two large Danish population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1991-1995 (HPV study: 6869 women, aged 22-32 years) and in 2004......-2005 (Liva study: 19,484 women, aged 18-45 years). Data were collected using a structured interview and measured weight, height, high-risk human papillomavirus DNA, Chlamydia DNA for the HPV study and a structured questionnaire for the Liva study. Overweight and obese women were more likely to have had...... no lifetime sexual partner or no sexual partner in the last year, e.g., obese women had a threefold (95 percent CI: 1.95-5.04) odds ratio of having had no sexual partner in the last year compared to normal weight women. Additionally, overweight and obese women had a lower likelihood of genital warts and high...

A narrative review of the occurrence of posttraumatic stress responses in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vuotto SC

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Stefanie C Vuotto,1 Katia M Perez,2 Kevin R Krull,1 Tara M Brinkman1 1Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Control, St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, 2Department of Psychology and Human Development, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA Abstract: Adolescent and young adult cancer survivors may experience posttraumatic stress responses following cancer diagnosis or treatment. The current paper reviews 23 studies reporting the occurrence of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, and associated predictors of these outcomes in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors. Results indicate considerable variability among prevalence estimates of PTSD (0%–34.8% and PTSS (4.4%–78%. Measurement inconsistencies limiting the ascertainment of reliable prevalence and risk estimates are discussed in the context of the reviewed literature. Specifically, differences in assessment measures utilized, the timing of assessment relative to diagnosis, the criteria used to define the outcome, and identification of the precipitating traumatic event may account for discrepancies in prevalence and risk estimates across studies. The application of specific PTSD diagnostic criteria to a survivorship population is discussed. Empirically supported interventions utilizing cognitive behavioral therapy approaches for the treatment of PTSS in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors are identified. Keywords: posttraumatic stress, adolescent and young adult, cancer survivors

Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

2016-01-01

Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Phthalates in dormitory and house dust of northern Chinese cities: Occurrence, human exposure, and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hai-Ling; Song, Wei-Wei; Zhang, Zi-Feng; Ma, Wan-Li; Gao, Chong-Jing; Li, Jia; Huo, Chun-Yan; Mohammed, Mohammed O A; Liu, Li-Yan; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Li, Yi-Fan

2016-09-15

Phthalates are widely used chemicals in household products, which severely affect human health. However, there were limited studies emphasized on young adults' exposure to phthalates in dormitories. In this study, seven phthalates were extracted from indoor dust that collected in university dormitories in Harbin, Shenyang, and Baoding, in the north of China. Dust samples were also collected in houses in Harbin for comparison. The total concentrations of phthalates in dormitory dust in Harbin and Shenyang samples were significantly higher than those in Baoding samples. The total geometric mean concentration of phthalates in dormitory dust in Harbin was lower than in house dust. Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was the most abundant phthalate in both dormitory and house dust. The daily intakes of the total phthalates, carcinogenic risk (CR) of DEHP, hazard index (HI) of di-isobutyl phthalate (DiBP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), and DEHP were estimated, the median values for all students in dormitories were lower than adults who live in the houses. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to predict the human exposure risk of phthalates. HI of DiBP, DBP, and DEHP was predicted according to the reference doses (RfD) provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA) and the reference doses for anti-androgenicity (RfD AA) developed by Kortenkamp and Faust. The results indicated that the risks of some students had exceeded the limitation, however, the measured results were not exceeded the limitation. Risk quotients (RQ) of DEHP were predicted based on China specific No Significant Risk Level (NSRL) and Maximum Allowable Dose Level (MADL). The predicted results of CR and RQ of DEHP suggested that DEHP could pose a health risk through intake of indoor dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Bell

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

Global occurrence of anti-infectives in contaminated surface waters: Impact of income inequality between countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Segura, Pedro A; Takada, Hideshige; Correa, José A; El Saadi, Karim; Koike, Tatsuya; Onwona-Agyeman, Siaw; Ofosu-Anim, John; Sabi, Edward Benjamin; Wasonga, Oliver V; Mghalu, Joseph M; dos Santos Junior, Antonio Manuel; Newman, Brent; Weerts, Steven; Yargeau, Viviane

2015-07-01

The presence anti-infectives in environmental waters is of interest because of their potential role in the dissemination of anti-infective resistance in bacteria and other harmful effects on non-target species such as algae and shellfish. Since no information on global trends regarding the contamination caused by these bioactive substances is yet available, we decided to investigate the impact of income inequality between countries on the occurrence of anti-infectives in surface waters. In order to perform such study, we gathered concentration values reported in the peer-reviewed literature between 1998 and 2014 and built a database. To fill the gap of knowledge on occurrence of anti-infectives in African countries, we also collected 61 surface water samples from Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa, and measured concentrations of 19 anti-infectives. A mixed one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model, followed by Turkey-Kramer post hoc tests was used to identify potential differences in anti-infective occurrence between countries grouped by income level (high, upper-middle and lower-middle and low income) according to the classification by the World Bank. Comparison of occurrence of anti-infectives according to income level revealed that concentrations of these substances in contaminated surface waters were significantly higher in low and lower-middle income countries (p=0.0001) but not in upper-middle income countries (p=0.0515) compared to high-income countries. We explained these results as the consequence of the absence of or limited sewage treatment performed in lower income countries. Furthermore, comparison of concentrations of low cost anti-infectives (sulfonamides and trimethoprim) and the more expensive macrolides between income groups suggest that the cost of these substances may have an impact on their environmental occurrence in lower income countries. Since wastewaters are the most important source of contamination of anti-infectives and other

Risk-based ranking of dominant contributors to maritime pollution events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wheeler, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report describes a conceptual approach for identifying dominant contributors to risk from maritime shipping of hazardous materials. Maritime transportation accidents are relatively common occurrences compared to more frequently analyzed contributors to public risk. Yet research on maritime safety and pollution incidents has not been guided by a systematic, risk-based approach. Maritime shipping accidents can be analyzed using event trees to group the accidents into 'bins,' or groups, of similar characteristics such as type of cargo, location of accident (e.g., harbor, inland waterway), type of accident (e.g., fire, collision, grounding), and size of release. The importance of specific types of events to each accident bin can be quantified. Then the overall importance of accident events to risk can be estimated by weighting the events' individual bin importance measures by the risk associated with each accident bin. 4 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Geographic variation and socio-demographic determinants of the co-occurrence of risky health behaviours in 27 European Union member states.