WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk measures included

  1. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  3. Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

    2002-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

  4. Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, O.E.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

  5. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  6. Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

  7. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  8. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  9. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  10. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  11. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  12. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

  13. Truck Drivers And Risk Of STDs Including HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bansal R.K

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Research Question: Whether long distance truck drivers are at a higher risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV? Objectives: i To study the degree of knowledge of HIV and AIDS among long- distance truck drivers. ii Assess their sexual behaviour including condom use. iii Explore their prevailing social influences and substance abuse patterns. iv Explore their treatment seeking bahaviour as regards STDs. v Deduce their risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV. Study Design: Cross- sectional interview. Setting: Transport Nagar, Indore (M.P Participants: 210 senior drivers (First drivers and 210 junior drivers (Second drivers. Study Variables: Extra-Marital sexual intercourse, condom usage, past and present history of STDs, treatment and counseling, substance abuse, social â€" cultural milieu. Outcome Variables: Risk of contraction of STDs. Statistical Analysis: Univariate analysis. Results: 94% of the drivers were totally ignorant about AIDS. 82.9% and 43.8 % of the senior and junior drivers had a history of extra- marital sex and of these only 2 regularly used condoms. 13.8% and 3.3 % of the senior and junior drivers had a past or present history suggestive of STD infection. Alcohol and Opium were regularly used by them. Conclusion: The studied drivers are at a high risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV.

  14. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

    1991-05-01

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  16. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  17. The FARE: A new way to express FAlls Risk among older persons including physical activity as a measure of Exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijlhuizen, G.J.; Chorus, A.M.J.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Common expressions of falls risk do not include exposure to hazards. We compared two expressions: the commonly used population incidence (fallers per 1000 person-years) and the FARE (FAlls Risk by Exposure): the number of fallers per 1000 physically active person-days. Methods:

  18. The FARE: a new way to express FAlls Risk among older persons including physical activity as a measure of exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijlhuizen, G.J.; Chorus, A.M.J.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Common expressions of falls risk do not include exposure to hazards. We compared two expressions: the commonly used population incidence (fallers per 1000 person-years) and the FARE (FAlls Risk by Exposure): the number of fallers per 1000 physically active person-days. Methods:

  19. Alcohol intake and colorectal cancer: a comparison of approaches for including repeated measures of alcohol consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Wu, Kana; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In numerous studies, alcohol intake has been found to be positively associated with colorectal cancer risk. However, the majority of studies included only one exposure measurement, which may bias the results if long-term intake is relevant.METHODS: We compared different approaches...... for including repeated measures of alcohol intake among 47,432 US men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Questionnaires including questions on alcohol intake had been completed in 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998. The outcome was incident colorectal cancer during follow-up from 1986 to 2002.RESULTS......: During follow-up, 868 members of the cohort experienced colorectal cancer. Baseline, updated, and cumulative average alcohol intakes were positively associated with colorectal cancer, with only minor differences among the approaches. These results support moderately increased risk for intake >30 g...

  20. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  1. Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

    2016-11-01

    Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  2. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  3. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  4. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  5. Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeněk Konečný

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

  6. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  7. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  8. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  9. Decision principles derived from risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  10. Awareness of Measures for Reducing Health Risk of Using Low-Quality Irrigation Water in Morogoro, Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mayilla, Winfrida; Magayane, Flavianus; Konradsen, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods includ...... that health education targeting at specific exposed group and their social-demographic characteristics is the potential measure in raising awareness of the potential health risk reduction measures when using low-quality irrigation water in irrigated agriculture.......The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods included...... a questionnaire survey with 60 farmers, 60 vegetable traders, and 70 consumers and four focus group discussions. General results show a low level of awareness of the health risk reduction measures in using low-quality irrigation water in all respondents’ categories. However, health protection measures...

  11. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  12. Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

    2017-04-01

    This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

  13. Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsbottom David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

  14. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

  15. Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

    2017-10-31

    This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

  16. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  17. Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

    2017-10-01

    Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  18. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  19. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  20. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  1. On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ararat, Cagin

    particular, it is shown that a shortfall risk measure can be written as an intersection over a family of divergence risk measures indexed by a scalarization parameter. Examples include the multivariate versions of the entropic risk measure and the average value at risk. In the second part, Aumann integrals of set-valued functions on a measurable space are viewed as set-valued functionals and a Daniell-Stone type characterization theorem is proved for such functionals. More precisely, it is shown that a functional that maps measurable set-valued functions into a certain complete lattice of subsets of Rm can be written as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure if and only if the functional is (1) additive and (2) positively homogeneous, (3) it preserves decreasing limits, (4) it maps halfspace-valued functions to halfspaces, and (5) it maps shifted cone-valued functions to shifted cones. While the first three properties already exist in the classical Daniell-Stone theorem for the Lebesgue integral, the last two properties are peculiar to the set-valued framework and they suffice to complement the first three properties to identify a set-valued functional as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure.

  2. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  3. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

  4. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  5. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  6. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  7. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  8. Including threat actor capability and motivation in risk assessment for Smart GRIDs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossebo, J.E.Y.; Fransen, F.; Luiijf, H.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The SEGRID (Security for Smart Electricity GRIDs) collaboration project, funded by the EU under the FP7 program investigates risk assessment methodologies and their possible need for enhancement. In this paper we discuss the need to include threat actor analysis in threat, vulnerability and risk

  9. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  10. On the use of risk-informed regulation including organizational factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibelli, S.M.O.; Alvarenga, M.A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk-Informed Regulation (RIR) can be applied by using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a basic tool. Traditionally, PSA methodology encompasses the calculation of failure probabilities of Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) and direct associated human errors. However, there are indirect causes related to human failures, associated with Organizational Factors, which are normally not included in fault trees, that may influence plant risk evaluation. This paper discusses on possible applications of RIR and on Organizational Factors. It also presents a classification of Angra-1 NPP unresolved issues, aiming a future inclusion of these factors into a PSA calculation. (author)

  11. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Richmond

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n=1,040 at the ages of 11–15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2 and WC (cm were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese were created using validated international (BMI and national (WC cut-off points. A Poisson regression analysis controlling for relevant covariates (sex, previous injury, sport participation, intervention group, and aerobic fitness level estimated the risk of sport injury [incidence rate ratios (IRR with 95% confidence intervals (CI]. Results. There was an increased risk of time loss injury (IRR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.01–8.04 and knee injury (IRR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.00–6.94 in adolescents that were overweight/obese; however, increases in injury risk for all injury and lower extremity injury were not statistically significant. Estimates suggested a greater risk of time loss injury [IRR = 1.63 (95% CI: 0.93–2.47] in adolescents with high measures of WC. Conclusions. There is an increased risk of time loss injury and knee injury in overweight/obese adolescents. Sport injury prevention training programs should include strategies that target all known risk factors for injury.

  12. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  13. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

    2006-01-01

    Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

  14. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.W.

    1978-01-01

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  15. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  16. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  17. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  18. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  19. Some new classes of consistent risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

  20. Risk assessment of titanium dioxide nanoparticles via oral exposure, including toxicokinetic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heringa, Minne B; Geraets, Liesbeth; van Eijkeren, Jan C H; Vandebriel, Rob J; de Jong, Wim H; Oomen, Agnes G

    2016-12-01

    Titanium dioxide white pigment consists of particles of various sizes, from which a fraction is in the nano range (food as additive E 171 as well as in other products, such as food supplements and toothpaste. Here, we assessed whether a human health risk can be expected from oral ingestion of these titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO 2 NPs), based on currently available information. Human health risks were assessed using two different approaches: Approach 1, based on intake, i.e. external doses, and Approach 2, based on internal organ concentrations using a kinetic model in order to account for accumulation over time (the preferred approach). Results showed that with Approach 1, a human health risk is not expected for effects in liver and spleen, but a human health risk cannot be excluded for effects on the ovaries. When based on organ concentrations by including the toxicokinetics of TiO 2 NPs (Approach 2), a potential risk for liver, ovaries and testes is found. This difference between the two approaches shows the importance of including toxicokinetic information. The currently estimated risk can be influenced by factors such as absorption, form of TiO 2 , particle fraction, particle size and physico-chemical properties in relation to toxicity, among others. Analysis of actual particle concentrations in human organs, as well as organ concentrations and effects in liver and the reproductive system after chronic exposure to well-characterized TiO 2 (NPs) in animals are recommended to refine this assessment.

  1. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  2. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  3. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  4. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackmurdo, R.

    1994-01-01

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  5. A systematic review of risk factors associated with accidental falls, outcome measures and interventions to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Laura A; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2015-01-01

    To systematically review peer-reviewed literature pertaining to risk factors, outcome measures and interventions managing fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion from databases including PubMed/Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, Scopus, Consumer Health Complete and Web of Science. Selected studies involved a description of fall related risk factors, outcomes to assess fall risk and intervention studies describing protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Studies were selected by two reviewers and consultation provided by a third reviewer. The most frequently cited risk factors/characteristics associated with falls included: wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. The majority of the outcomes were found to evaluate seated postural control. One intervention study was identified describing a protocol targeting specific problems of individual participants. A global fall prevention program was not identified. Several risk factors associated with falls were identified and must be understood by clinicians to better serve their clients. To improve objective assessment, a comprehensive outcome assessment specific to non-ambulatory adults is needed. Finally, additional research is needed to examine the impact of structured protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Falls are a common health concern for non-ambulatory adults. Risk factors commonly associated with falls include wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. Limited outcome measures are available to assess fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Clinicians must be aware of the known risk factors and provide comprehensive education to their clients on the potential for falls. Additional research is needed to develop and evaluate protocols to clinically manage fall

  6. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  7. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  8. Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

    2017-06-30

    This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

  9. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  10. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

  11. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

  12. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  13. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

    2015-09-15

    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of preterm birth in multiple pregnancies: development of a multivariable model including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Mheen, Lidewij; Schuit, Ewoud; Lim, Arianne C; Porath, Martina M; Papatsonis, Dimitri; Erwich, Jan J; van Eyck, Jim; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Hummel, Piet; Duvekot, Johannes J; Hasaart, Tom H M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Moons, Karl G M; de Groot, Christianne J M; Bruinse, Hein W; van Pampus, Maria G; Mol, Ben W J

    2014-04-01

    To develop a multivariable prognostic model for the risk of preterm delivery in women with multiple pregnancy that includes cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and other variables. We used data from a previous randomized trial. We assessed the association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and time to delivery using multivariable Cox regression modelling. Performance of the final model was assessed for the outcomes of preterm and very preterm delivery using calibration and discrimination measures. We studied 507 women, of whom 270 (53%) delivered models for preterm and very preterm delivery had a c-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75), respectively, and showed good calibration. In women with a multiple pregnancy, the risk of preterm delivery can be assessed with a multivariable model incorporating cervical length and other predictors.

  15. On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  16. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  17. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.

    1996-02-01

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  18. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  19. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  20. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  2. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  3. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  4. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  5. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  6. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  7. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, S B; Takken, T; Prinsen, E C; Wittink, H

    2012-05-01

    To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio and body fat percentage were considered the anthropometric adiposity measures. Primary CVD risk factors were: systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose. Two independent reviewers performed abstract, full text and data selection. Twenty articles were included describing 21,618 males and 24,139 females. Waist circumference had the strongest correlation with all CVD risk factors for both men and women, except for HDL and LDL in men. When comparing BMI with waist circumference, the latter showed significantly better correlations to CVD risk factors, except for diastolic blood pressure in women and HDL and total cholesterol in men. We recommend the use of waist circumference in clinical and research studies above other anthropometric adiposity measures, especially compared with BMI, when evaluating CVD risk factors.

  8. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  9. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  10. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk Factors for Breast Cancer, Including Occupational Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Weiderpass

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge on the etiology of breast cancer has advanced substantially in recent years, and several etiological factors are now firmly established. However, very few new discoveries have been made in relation to occupational risk factors. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated over 900 different exposures or agents to-date to determine whether they are carcinogenic to humans. These evaluations are published as a series of Monographs (www.iarc.fr. For breast cancer the following substances have been classified as “carcinogenic to humans” (Group 1: alcoholic beverages, exposure to diethylstilbestrol, estrogen-progestogen contraceptives, estrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapy and exposure to X-radiation and gamma-radiation (in special populations such as atomic bomb survivors, medical patients, and in-utero exposure. Ethylene oxide is also classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, although the evidence for carcinogenicity in epidemiologic studies, and specifically for the human breast, is limited. The classification “probably carcinogenic to humans” (Group 2A includes estrogen hormone replacement therapy, tobacco smoking, and shift work involving circadian disruption, including work as a flight attendant. If the association between shift work and breast cancer, the most common female cancer, is confirmed, shift work could become the leading cause of occupational cancer in women.

  12. Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxi Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

  13. Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

    1998-01-01

    The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

  14. Including risk in the balanced scorecard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    and implementation methods of Johannesburg Stock. Exchange listed organisations. P.N. Kotze ... risk management and the BSC as well as the adoption rates for both frameworks among Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) ..... Special investment vehicles were excluded from the study as these organisations do not hold ...

  15. A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

    2007-01-01

    .... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

  16. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

  17. Force measuring valve assemblies, systems including such valve assemblies and related methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWall, Kevin George [Pocatello, ID; Garcia, Humberto Enrique [Idaho Falls, ID; McKellar, Michael George [Idaho Falls, ID

    2012-04-17

    Methods of evaluating a fluid condition may include stroking a valve member and measuring a force acting on the valve member during the stroke. Methods of evaluating a fluid condition may include measuring a force acting on a valve member in the presence of fluid flow over a period of time and evaluating at least one of the frequency of changes in the measured force over the period of time and the magnitude of the changes in the measured force over the period of time to identify the presence of an anomaly in a fluid flow and, optionally, its estimated location. Methods of evaluating a valve condition may include directing a fluid flow through a valve while stroking a valve member, measuring a force acting on the valve member during the stroke, and comparing the measured force to a reference force. Valve assemblies and related systems are also disclosed.

  18. A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebun Erdur

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundSymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors—namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.MethodsWe analyzed our local cohort (Berlin of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel.ResultssICH occurred in 53 (4.0% of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4% had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60–0.77 in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.ConclusionWe developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

  19. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

  20. Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

    1985-01-01

    There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

  1. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  2. Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

    1983-01-01

    Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

  3. Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

    1997-01-01

    A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

  4. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Ayako; Fujimoto, Junzo; Takeda, Daisuke; Yamazaki, Tomoyuki

    2009-01-01

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  5. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage

  6. Portable instrumentation for quantitatively measuring radioactive surface contaminations, including 90Sr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodzinski, R.L.

    1983-10-01

    In order to measure the effectiveness of decontamination efforts, a quantitative analysis of the radiocontamination is necessary, both before and after decontamination. Since it is desirable to release the decontaminated material for unrestricted use or disposal, the assay equipment must provide adequate sensitivity to measure the radioactivity at or below the release limit. In addition, the instrumentation must be capable of measuring all kinds of radiocontaminants including fission products, activation products, and transuranic materials. Finally, the survey instrumentation must be extremely versatile in order to assay the wide variety of contaminated surfaces in many environments, some of which may be extremely hostile or remote. This communication describes the development and application of portable instrumentation capable of quantitatively measuring most transuranics, activation products, and fission products, including 90 Sr, on almost any contaminated surface in nearly any location

  7. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  8. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  9. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Richmond, Sarah A.; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Doyle-Baker, Patricia K.; Macpherson, Alison; Emery, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n = 1,040) at the ages of 11?15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2) and WC (cm) were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese) were created using validated internati...

  10. A technique of including the effect of aging of passive components in probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

    1992-01-01

    The probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) being developed at most nuclear power plants to calculate the risk of core damage generally focus on the possible failure of active components. The possible failure of passive components is given little consideration. We are developing methods for selecting risk-significant passive components and including them in PRAS. These methods provide effective ways to prioritize passive components for inspection, and where inspection reveals aging damage, mitigation or repair can be employed to reduce the likelihood of component failure. We demonstrated a method by selecting a weld in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system, basing our selection on expert judgement of the likelihood of failure and on an estimate of the consequence of component failure to plant safety. We then modified and used the Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code to perform a probabilistic structural analysis to calculate the probability that crack growth due to aging would cause the weld to fail. The PRAISE code was modified to include the effects of changing design material properties with age and changing stress cycles. The calculation included the effects of mechanical loads and thermal transients typical of the service loads for this piping design and the effects of thermal cycling caused by a leaking check valve. However, this particular calculation showed little change in low component failure probability and plant risk for 48 years of service. However, sensitivity studies showed that if the probability of component failure is high, the effect on plant risk is significant. The success of this demonstration shows that this method could be applied to nuclear power plants. The demonstration showed the method is too involved (PRAISE takes a long time to perform the calculation and the input information is extensive) for handling a large number of passive components and therefore simpler methods are needed

  11. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

  12. Risk concepts in various fields including radiation protection. A historical review and some recent topics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2000-01-01

    This is a review by the expert group concerning risks in radiation protection and in chemical management, recent state of protection and of health-risk assessment of low dose radiation, and risk concepts in other fields. Risk concepts in radiation protection are described mainly on ICRP: Its history leading to its Publication 1 (1958), Pub. 9 (1965), Pub. 26 (1977) and Pub. 60 (1990). In that recent publication, the term, risk, is used only for the established one like estimated risk or excess relative risk. Risk management of chemicals involves that against pollution from environmental and ecological aspects, and assessment of dioxin and chemicals from toxicology and carcinogenicity aspects. Recently, risks of low dose radiation have been actively discussed conceivably because of possible reduction of the exposure limit in ICRP Recommendation 1990, Chernobyl accident, advances of radiation biology and radiation protection problem in the radioactive waste disposition. Globally, many academic societies such as American Health-Physics Society published Position Statements and Reports and there are activities like the Research program plan for the risk and an international conference of bridging radiation policy and science. Risk concepts involve technological and ecological ones, insurance ones and health ones. Risk assessment or analysis is done through recognition, measurement and prediction, thus through the scientific process based on objective facts. (K.H.)

  13. On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

  14. Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Kagaayi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index. Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models. RESULTS: We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years, and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years. The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73. The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70. Both models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

  15. Effectiveness of transmitting safety-measures information in risk communication of nuclear power generation. Evaluation by the receiver of the messages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Takanobu; Shiomi, Tetsuro

    2004-01-01

    Effectiveness of risk communication were previously discussed through both ''risk information'' and ''benefit information'' of its topics. However, in technical facilities facilities such as nuclear power plant where safeness is an important concern, not only these two aspects but also safety-measures information'' are required. There have been previously no such discussions about risk communication that included ''safety-measures information''. In this report, we investigated general public's view of the difference in effectiveness of risk communication between two cases. In the first case, only ''risk'' and ''benefit information'' were given. In the second case, we added ''safety-measures information'' as well as ''risk'' and benefit information''. Measurement of the effect was performed using a questionnaire. We divided the subjects into two groups. Each group was shown one side of two pamphlets which had information concerning two conditions, and asked how it feels about ''reliance on information'', ''reliance on informer'', ''posture considered with informer'' which are factors in the process of the attitude change that is shown in the paradigm of risk communication (Kinoshita and Kikkawa, (1990)). Prior to this investigation, we identified each subject is position on nuclear power generation. Thus we were able to clarify the effectiveness of each risk communication style depending on each subject is position (approval, neutrality, objection). As a result, we reached the following conclusions: First about ''reliance on information'', where asked whether the contents of a pamphlet would be reliable, it was found that the person negative to nuclear power generation evaluated lower the pamphlet which included ''safety-measures information'' than the other. However, it was found that regardless of the difference in the position towards nuclear power generation, people who read the pamphlet including ''safety-measures information'' evaluated higher ''reliance on

  16. Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

  17. Group differences in risk across three domains using an expanded measure of sexual orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loosier, Penny S; Dittus, Patricia J

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to highlight associations between sexual orientation and risk outcomes in late adolescence and early adulthood using an expanded measure of sexual orientation. Recent data indicate higher levels of risk behavior in a newly identified population, mostly heterosexuals, as compared to heterosexuals. Comparisons among groups using an expanded measure of sexual orientation such as this, however, often do not include all possible groups or may restrict comparisons between groups. Data were derived from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health); participants identified as heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, mostly gay, or gay. Main risk outcomes were parental mistreatment, home displacement, thoughts of suicide, depressive symptoms, frequency of drinking, and delinquency. A priori planned comparisons examined differences between: (a) heterosexual vs. mostly heterosexual, (b) gay vs. mostly gay, (c) mostly heterosexual vs. bisexual, (d) mostly gay vs. bisexual, (e) mostly heterosexual vs. mostly gay, (f) heterosexual vs. gay, (g) heterosexual vs. bisexual, and (h) gay vs. bisexual. Mostly heterosexual youth were at significantly greater risk than heterosexual youth on all outcomes but did not differ from bisexual or mostly gay youth. Heterosexuals were at lower risk as compared to mostly heterosexuals and bisexuals. This study provides further evidence of differential risk associations for sexual minorities.

  18. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 2. Quantitative comparison of pathogen risk to other impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimersson, Sara; Harder, Robin; Peters, Gregory M; Svanström, Magdalena

    2014-08-19

    Resource recovery from sewage sludge has the potential to save natural resources, but the potential risks connected to human exposure to heavy metals, organic micropollutants, and pathogenic microorganisms attract stakeholder concern. The purpose of the presented study was to include pathogen risks to human health in life cycle assessment (LCA) of wastewater and sludge management systems, as this is commonly omitted from LCAs due to methodological limitations. Part 1 of this article series estimated the overall pathogen risk for such a system with agricultural use of the sludge, in a way that enables the results to be integrated in LCA. This article (part 2) presents a full LCA for two model systems (with agricultural utilization or incineration of sludge) to reveal the relative importance of pathogen risk in relation to other potential impacts on human health. The study showed that, for both model systems, pathogen risk can constitute an important part (in this study up to 20%) of the total life cycle impacts on human health (expressed in disability adjusted life years) which include other important impacts such as human toxicity potential, global warming potential, and photochemical oxidant formation potential.

  19. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  20. Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citrome, Leslie

    2009-09-01

    Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

  1. Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, Jamil

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

  2. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  3. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  4. Measures of Body Size and Composition and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karas, Maria G.; Yee, Laura M.; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; Ix, Joachim H.; Zieman, Susan J.; Siscovick, David S.; Gottdiener, John S.; Rosenberg, Michael A.; Kronmal, Richard A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Kizer, Jorge R.

    2016-01-01

    Various anthropometric measures, including height, have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). This raises questions about the appropriateness of using ratio measures such as body mass index (BMI), which contains height squared in its denominator, in the evaluation of AF risk. Among older adults, the optimal anthropometric approach to risk stratification of AF remains uncertain. Anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance measures were obtained from 4,276 participants (mean age = 72.4 years) free of cardiovascular disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up (1989–2008), 1,050 cases of AF occurred. BMI showed a U-shaped association, whereas height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fat mass, and fat-free mass were linearly related to incident AF. The strongest adjusted association occurred for height (per each 1-standard-deviation increment, hazard ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.51), which exceeded all other measures, including weight (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.29). Combined assessment of log-transformed weight and height showed regression coefficients that departed from the 1 to −2 ratio inherent in BMI, indicating a loss of predictive information. Risk estimates for AF tended to be stronger for hip circumference than for waist circumference and for fat-free mass than for fat mass, which was explained largely by height. These findings highlight the prominent role of body size and the inadequacy of BMI as determinants of AF in older adults. PMID:27188936

  5. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  6. Farm-based measures for reducing microbiological health risks for consumers from informal wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Konradsen, Flemming; Drechsel, Pay

    2010-01-01

    in developing countries as part of a multiple-barrier approach for health-risk reduction along the farm to fork pathway. Measures discussed include treatment of irrigation water using ponds, filters and wetland systems; water application techniques; irrigation scheduling; and crop selection. In addition...

  7. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  8. Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iordanis Eleftheriadis

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

  9. Evaluation of fetal anthropometric measures to predict the risk for shoulder dystocia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, T; Schmidt, M; Kurmanavicius, J; Zimmermann, R; Schäffer, L

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the quality of anthropometric measures to improve the prediction of shoulder dystocia by combining different sonographic biometric parameters. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12,794 vaginal deliveries with complete sonographic biometry data obtained within 7 days before delivery. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves of various combinations of the biometric parameters, namely, biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), head circumference, abdominal diameter (AD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length were analyzed. The influences of independent risk factors were calculated and their combination used in a predictive model. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 1.14%. Different combinations of sonographic parameters showed comparable ROC curves without advantage for a particular combination. The difference between AD and BPD (AD - BPD) (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.704) revealed a significant increase in risk (odds ratio (OR) 7.6 (95% CI 4.2-13.9), sensitivity 8.2%, specificity 98.8%) at a suggested cut-off ≥ 2.6 cm. However, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (7.5%). The AC as a single parameter (AUC = 0.732) with a cut-off ≥ 35 cm performed worse (OR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5), PPV 2.6%). BPD/OFD (a surrogate for fetal cranial shape) was not significantly different between those with and those without shoulder dystocia. The combination of estimated fetal weight, maternal diabetes, gender and AD - BPD provided a reasonable estimate of the individual risk. Sonographic fetal anthropometric measures appear not to be a useful tool to screen for the risk of shoulder dystocia due to a low PPV. However, AD - BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor. While risk stratification including different known risk factors may aid in counseling, shoulder dystocia cannot effectively be predicted. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

    2011-01-01

    We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

  11. Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

  12. Predictors of Social Skills for Preschool Children at Risk for ADHD: The Relationship between Direct and Indirect Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Lisa B.; Shapiro, Edward S.; DuPaul, George J.; Lutz, J. Gary; Kern, Lee

    2011-01-01

    The relationship between direct and indirect measurements of social skills and social problem behaviors for preschool children at risk for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) was examined. Participants included 137 preschool children, aged 3 to 5 years, at risk for ADHD, who were participating in a larger study examining the effects of…

  13. Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikard, H.P.

    2004-01-01

    Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

  14. Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

  15. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  16. Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaan Sözmen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

  17. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  18. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  19. Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

  20. University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

    2018-04-01

    Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

  1. Efficacy of anthropometric measures for identifying cardiovascular disease risk in adolescents: review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenauer, Michael; Wheatley, Sean D; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Duncan, Michael J; Cobayashi, Fernanda; Berg, Gabriela; Musso, Carla; Graffigna, Mabel; Soutelo, Jimena; Bovet, Pascal; Kollias, Anastasios; Stergiou, George S; Grammatikos, Evangelos; Griffiths, Claire; Ingle, Lee; Jung, Christian

    2018-04-12

    To compare the ability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk levels in adolescents. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed after a database search for relevant literature (Cochrane, Centre for Review and Dissemination, PubMed, British Nursing Index, CINAHL, BIOSIS citation index, ChildData, metaRegister). 117 records representing 96 studies with 994,595 participants were included in the systematic review, 14 of which (13 studies, n=14,610) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The results of the meta-analysis showed that BMI was a strong indicator of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and insulin; but not total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein or glucose. Few studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis considering WC or WHtR (n≤2). The narrative synthesis found measures of central adiposity to be consistently valid indicators of the same risk factors as BMI. BMI was an indicator of CVD risk. WC and WHtR were efficacious for indicating the same risk factors BMI performed strongly for, though there was insufficient evidence to judge the relative strength of each measure possibly due to heterogeneity in the methods for measuring and classifying WC.

  2. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  3. Risk Informed Approach for Nuclear Security Measures for Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material out of Regulatory Control. Implementing Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This publication provides guidance to States for developing a risk informed approach and for conducting threat and risk assessments as the basis for the design and implementation of sustainable nuclear security systems and measures for prevention of, detection of, and response to criminal and intentional unauthorised acts involving nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control. It describes concepts and methodologies for a risk informed approach, including identification and assessment of threats, targets, and potential consequences; threat and risk assessment methodologies, and the use of risk informed approaches as the basis for informing the development and implementation of nuclear security systems and measures. The publication is an Implementing Guide within the IAEA Nuclear Security Series and is intended for use by national policy makers, law enforcement agencies and experts from competent authorities and other relevant organizations involved in the establishment, implementation, maintenance or sustainability of nuclear security systems and measures related to nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control

  4. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  5. Predictive value of ovarian stroma measurement for cardiovascular risk in polycyctic ovary syndrome: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loverro Giuseppe

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To verify the feasibility of ovarian stromal evaluation and correlate ovarian parameteres (echogenicity and volume with hyperandrogenism, and both cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in PCOS. Methods Twenty four young PCOS patients and twelve age-matched control women were enrolled. Diagnosis of PCOS was based on the Rotterdam criteria. Ultrasound ovarian study included ovarian volume, stromal volume, stromal area and stromal area/total ovarian area ratio (S/A. Concerning hormones, insulin, LH, FSH, estradiol, androstenedione, testosterone, DHEAS, 17-hydroxy-progesterone, and SHBG were measured during the early follicular phase (days 2-5. Cardiovascular risk factors were represented by fasting plasma levels of glucose, lipids (total and HDL-cholesterol, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1, von-Willebrand factor (vWF, and adiponectin. Carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT was measured as a parameter of cardiovascular risk. Results A positive correlation between the S/A ratio and plasma levels of testosterone (p Conclusions This study shows that the ultrasound measurement of ovarian stroma is a predicting factor of hyperandrogenism degree, prothrombotic factors and cardiovascular risk in patients with PCOS.

  6. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  7. Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

    2016-02-01

    High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea

  8. Risk assessment of exposure to mechanical vibrations: comparison between field measurements and use of databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monica, L.; Nataletti, P.; Vignali, G.

    2008-01-01

    Despite continuous technological progress with a view to guaranteeing workers' safety and health, there are still many hazardous situations to workers' health when using industrial equipment; exposure to mechanical vibrations may definitely be included among these situations. Many researches have shown that the widespread use of various vibrating tools in the industrial, agricultural and forestry fields, such as vehicles and machinery in the workplace, are a source of vibration disorders or the worsening of pre-existing symptoms.The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between the two types of risk assessment currently provided for by the law: direct field measurements and database support. We will identify the advantages and operational limitations involved in the use of databases through the results of direct field measurements assessing the risk derived from vibrations in a typical engineering company in the mineral waters and beverages industry. As a result, this research can represent a functional reference for risk assessments of vibration exposure in individual companies

  9. Application of different measures of bioavailability to support the derivation of risk-based remedial benchmarks for PHC-contaminated sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephenson, G. [Stantec Consulting Ltd., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    Risk estimates and exposure scenarios hardly ever take into consideration site-specific bioavailability of contaminants. Risk assessors frequently adopt the assumption that a contaminant in soils is 100 percent bioavailable, resulting in an overestimation of the risks associated with contamination. Remedial targets or benchmarks derived in light of this assumption are needlessly low and might be technically unattainable or prohibitive in terms of cost. This presentation discussed a research project whose goal was to develop a tool kit to measure or determine site-specific bioavailability of contaminants (PHCs) in soils to ecological receptors. Tools that were discussed included: biological measures such as toxicity tests, contaminant residues in tissues, and bioaccumulation tests. Chemical measures such as bioaccessibility tests and other biomimetic devices (SPMDs), biotic ligand modeling, and chemical extractions were also presented. Preliminary investigation results were provided. Other topics that were discussed included: single-species toxicity tests; preliminary comparisons; the site; bioaccumulation; and toxicity to earthworms. It was concluded that total soil and water-extractable concentrations did not correlate well with toxicity. tabs., figs.

  10. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  11. Aggravation of Risk and Precautionary Measures in Non-Life Insurance: A Tricky Scope for the Insurer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olavi-Jüri Luik

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aggravation of risk and failure to take precautionary measures are focal issues in non-life insurance in terms of potential partial or full release of the insurer from the duty to perform. Not infrequently, it is difficult to draw a line between the aggravation of risk on the one hand, and non-compliance with precautionary measures on the other, since a particular action by a policyholder may present both situations. At the same time, the legal remedies available to the insurer regarding these two situations are different in scope. The aggravation of risk and non-compliance with precautionary measures are precisely the bases on which insurers actually reduce indemnity or refuse to compensate for damages. This article explores the differences between insurance laws in the Baltic states—specifically, the Estonian Law of Obligations Act, the Latvian Insurance Contract Law and Lithuanian rules contained in the Civil Code and Insurance Law. The article explores the differences between the Baltic states’ insurance laws and the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law (PEICL with regard to a policyholder’s duty in relation to aggravation of risk and precautionary measures, as the rights and obligations of policyholders do change where the optional instrument is applied. The article also includes comparisons to German, Finnish and Russian insurance law.

  12. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  13. Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  14. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke: the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline; Kee, Frank; Palmieri, Luigi; Ferrario, Marco M; Montaye, Michèle; Amouyel, Philippe; Dallongeville, Jean

    2011-10-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass index (BMI). The association of BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR with stroke was assessed in 31,201 men and 23,516 women, free of vascular disease at baseline, from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 1130 strokes were recorded. Relative risks (95% CI) were calculated by Cox regression after stratification for center and adjustment for age, smoking, educational level, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and BMI and model fit was assessed using log-likelihoods. BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke in men. After full adjustment including BMI, the relative risks for stroke remained significant for WC (1.19 [1.02 to 1.34] per 1 SD increase in WC), WHR (1.14 [1.03 to 1.26]), and WHtR (1.50 [1.28 to 1.77]). Among women, the extent of the associations with stroke risk was similar for WHtR (1.31 [1.04 to 1.65]), WC (1.19 [0.96 to 1.47]), and WHR (1.08 [0.97 to 1.22]). Further analyses by World Health Organization obesity categories showed that WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke also in lean men and women (BMI<25 kg/m2), independently of confounders, cardiovascular risk factors, and BMI. Indicators of abdominal adiposity, especially WHtR, are more strongly associated with stroke risk than BMI. These results emphasize the importance of measuring abdominal adiposity, especially in lean subjects.

  15. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  16. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  17. Differentiating Community Dwellers at Risk for Pathological Narcissism From Community Dwellers at Risk for Psychopathy Using Measures of Emotion Recognition and Subjective Emotional Activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Pincus, Aaron; Borroni, Serena; Dowgwillo, Emily A

    2017-06-01

    The Italian translations of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) and Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM) were administered to 609 community dwelling adults. Participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the PNI total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for pathological narcissism, whereas participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the TriPM total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for psychopathy. The final sample included 126 participants who were administered the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) and emotion-eliciting movie clips. Participants at risk for pathological narcissism scored significantly lower on the RMET total score than participants who were not at risk for pathological narcissism. Participants at risk for psychopathy showed a significant reduction in the subjective experience of disgust, fear, sadness, and tenderness compared to participants who were not at risk for psychopathy.

  18. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

  20. Developing of risk-hedging CO2-emission policy. Part II: risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risk associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO 2 emissions are reviewed here: (1) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (2) economic growth might be reduced; (3) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (4) early action might cost more than later action; (5) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (6) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (7) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risk associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO 2 emissions at the present (early 1990s) level. This is turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duftschmid, K.E.

    1994-05-01

    A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

  2. Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Karina Marques Salge

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

  3. Risk of Being Subjected to Crime, Including Violent Crime, After Onset of Mental Illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dean, Kimberlie; Laursen, Thomas M; Pedersen, Carsten B

    2018-01-01

    Importance: People with mental illness are more likely to have contact with the criminal justice system, but research to date has focused on risk of offense perpetration, while less is known about risk of being subjected to crime and violence. Objectives: To establish the incidence of being...... subjected to all types of criminal offenses, and by violent crimes separately, after onset of mental illness across the full diagnostic spectrum compared with those in the population without mental illness. Design, Setting, and Participants: This investigation was a longitudinal national cohort study using...... of mental illness, recorded as first contact with outpatient or inpatient mental health services. Diagnoses across the full spectrum of psychiatric diagnoses were considered separately for men and women. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated for first subjection to crime...

  4. Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

    2018-05-18

    Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

  6. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Lopez-Guzman

    Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  7. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  8. Radon measurements in Ghana: health risk assesment at the Lake Bosomtwi basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andam, A.A.B.; Addison, E.C.K.; Nani, E.K.; Amankwah, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    The need to assess the risk of exposure to radon and its daughters stems from the reality, that radon is a potential carcinogenic. We report Radon-222 risk assessment, from measurements on soil and sediments taken from six towns along the Lake Bosomtwi basin at two levels of 10cm and 20cm. The current and future prospects of Lake Bosomtwi, the largest natural lake in Ghana, make this assessment imperative, since radon forms half of natural background radiation. Spatial Analyser Decision Assistant (SADA) algorithms were used to model the measured radon concentrations under two land-use scenarios, namely residential and recreational. Setting the data under a targeted risk of 1E-6,we found that the external exposure was below that of the maximum concentrations to the measurements. This indicates that the radon levels around those towns as of the time of the measurements is low and below limits which can cause carcinogenic threats. The mean risk associated with the sampled locations was found to be 9E-11 at the recreational areas and 2E-8 at residential centres. To confirm the authenticity of the point risk analysis, geospatial modelling based on inverse distance interpolation schemes were performed. The results tally closely with that of the measured point risk analysis with and error margin of 2% and 1.3 % for both land use scenarios at 10 cm and 20 cm depth respectively. (au)

  9. Measuring Systemic Risk of Banking in Indonesia: Conditional Value at Risk Model Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjum Muharam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Systemic risk is a risk of collapse of the financial system that would cause the financial system is not functioning properly. Measurement of systemic risk in the financial institutions, especially banks are crucial, because banks are highly vulnerable to financial crisis. In this study, to estimate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR used quantile regression. Samples in this study of 9 banks have total assets of the largest in Indonesia. Testing the correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR in this study using Spearman correlation and Kendall's Tau. There are five banks that have a significant correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR, meanwhile four others banks in the sample did not have a significant correlation. However, the correlation coefficient is below 0.50, which indicates that there is a weak correlation between VaR and CoVaR.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5296

  10. A novel measure of poverty and its association with elevated sexual risk behavior among young Black MSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Leandro; Crosby, Richard A; Geter, Angelica

    2017-05-01

    This study determined whether a novel (single-item) measure of poverty is associated with elevated sexual risk among young Black men who have sex with men who reside in a US city with high HIV seroprevalence. A convenience sample of 600 Black men who have sex with men (ages 16-29) completed a computer-assisted self-interview. The questionnaire included an item asking men, 'In the past 12 months have you missed meals because you did not have enough money to eat?' Selected measures of sexual risk and prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and HIV were assessed as outcomes of this novel measure of poverty. About 22% had missed meals due to lack of money. In age-adjusted analyses, these men were more likely to report: (1) having concurrent sex partners ( P = .03), (2) having sex with partners who were generally five or more years older ( P = .02), (3) not using condoms the first time they had sex with their most recent new partner ( P = .015), (4) having sex with persons not known by name ( P = .02), (5) depending on sex partners for food, money, and shelter ( P poverty may be predictive of many sexual risk behaviors. Clinicians may benefit this population by including this question as part of their patient interview and prioritizing services when indicated.

  11. Is energy imparted a good measure of the radiation risk associated with CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.

    1984-01-01

    The dose distribution in a Rando phantom has been measured for typical EMI 5005 CT scans of the head, chest, abdomen and pelvis. These dose distributions have been used to generate quantitative estimates of the somatic and genetic radiation risks associated with these CT examinations and also to measure the total energy imparted during each scan. A comparison has been made between the radiation risk estimates and the energy imparted measurements. The energy imparted measurements are not a good indicator of the somatic and/or genetic risks when one type of CT scan is compared with another. However, for a given type of scan, the energy imparted may be a reasonable indicator of the relative somatic risks associated with different CT examinations. Considerable care should be taken when interpreting and using any measured value of energy imparted in a radiological examination since published values of the risk per unit energy imparted can significantly underestimate the radiation risk. (author)

  12. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  13. The instability of downside risk measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga-Haszonits, I; Kondor, I

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

  14. Clarifying the use of aggregated exposures in multilevel models: self-included vs. self-excluded measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etsuji Suzuki

    Full Text Available Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level and individual (lower level exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure. More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure. In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models.Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models-self-included model and self-excluded model-and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure.Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions.When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model-self-included or self-excluded-is suitable for a given situation

  15. Temporal patterns of lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - consequences to remediation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2004-01-01

    Studies of uranium miners conducted since the late 1960s demonstrated that the risk depends on cumulated exposure in terms of working level months (WLM) integrating both duration of exposure and concentration of radon. It has been also demonstrated that the risk from radon decreases with time since exposure. The present analysis of temporal changes of relative risk is based on a model where the total individual exposure is partitioned into components in dependence on time. Exposure to radon is studied in a cohort of 9411 Czech uranium miners with 766 cases of lung cancer and in a residential study of 11 803 inhabitants exposed to radon in houses with 218 cases. In addition, temporal patterns of the risk from smoking are analyzed in a case-control study of patients from a major Prague hospital including 566 cases. For both carcinogens, the relative risk decreases with time since exposure. The risk from exposures before 20-34 years is 36% and 34% in comparison to period 5-19 for smoking and radon, respectively. The effect of exposures from more distant periods 35-49 is only 5% for smoking and 14% for radon in comparison to 5-19 years. This substantial decrease of relative risk with time may contribute to a better evaluation of remediation measures taken in houses and in the cost effectiveness of remediation. Combined effect of smoking and radon is studied by a nested case-control approach including 434 cases and 962 controls. Analyses of the joint effects of smoking and radon, conducted in the occupational and the residential studies, suggest a sub-multiplicative interaction. The relative risk from radon among non-smokers is higher by a factor of 2-3 in comparison to smokers, suggesting different patterns of lung deposition and clearance among smokers and non-smokers. (author)

  16. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  17. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeighami, E.A.; Walsh, P.J.; Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/10 6 /rad-year to 6/10 6 /rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  18. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  19. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  20. Including pork in the Mediterranean diet for an Australian population: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial assessing cardiovascular risk and cognitive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alexandra T; Davis, Courtney R; Dyer, Kathryn A; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Woodman, Richard J; Keage, Hannah A D; Murphy, Karen J

    2017-12-22

    The Mediterranean diet is characterised by the high consumption of extra virgin olive oil, fruits, vegetables, grains, legumes and nuts; moderate consumption of fish, poultry, eggs and dairy; and low consumption of red meat and sweets. Cross sectional, longitudinal and intervention studies indicate that a Mediterranean diet may be effective for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and dementia. However, previous research suggests that an Australian population may find red meat restrictions difficult, which could affect long term sustainability of the diet. This paper outlines the protocol for a randomised controlled trial that will assess the cardiovascular and cognitive benefits of a Mediterranean diet modified to include 2-3 weekly serves of fresh, lean pork. A 24-week cross-over design trial will compare a modified Mediterranean diet with a low-fat control diet in at-risk men and women. Participants will follow each of the two diets for 8 weeks, with an 8-week washout period separating interventions. Home measured systolic blood pressure will be the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcomes will include body mass index, body composition, fasting blood lipids, C-reactive protein, fasting plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, erythrocyte fatty acids, cognitive function, psychological health and well-being, and dementia risk. To our knowledge this research is the first to investigate whether an alternate source of protein can be included in the Mediterranean diet to increase sustainability and feasibility for a non-Mediterranean population. Findings will be significant for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and age-related decline, and may inform individuals, clinicians and public health policy. ACTRN12616001046493 . Registered 5 August 2016.

  1. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  2. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1{sup st} and 2{sup nd} terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1{sup st} term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2{sup nd} term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk.

  3. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1 st and 2 nd terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1 st term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2 nd term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk

  4. Theoretical vs. measured risk estimates for the external exposure to ionizing radiation pathway - a case study of a major industrial site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dundon, S.T.

    1996-01-01

    Two methods of estimating the risk to industrial receptors to ionizing radiation are presented here. The first method relies on the use of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) external exposure slope factor combined with default exposure parameters for industrial land uses. The second method employs measured exposure rate date and site-specific exposure durations combined with the BEIR V radiological risk coefficient to estimate occupational risk. The uncertainties in each method are described qualitatively. Site-specific information was available for the exposure duration and the exposure frequency as well as historic dosimetry information. Risk estimates were also generated for the current regulatory cleanup level (removal risks included) and for a no action scenario. The study showed that uncertainties for risks calculated using measured exposure rates and site-specific exposure parameters were much lower and defendable than using EPA slope factors combined with default exposure parameters. The findings call into question the use of a uniform cleanup standard for depleted uranium that does not account for site-specific land uses and relies on theoretical models rather than measured exposure rate information

  5. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  6. Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

  7. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  8. A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

  9. Knowledge of Risk Factors and Preventive Measures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study was to elicit the knowledge of risk factors and preventive measures of hypertension among Child Bearing Mothers (CBMs) in Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. The study adopted the descriptive research design. Specifically, three objectives with three corresponding research ...

  10. Act No. 87-565 of 22 July 1987 on the organization of public safety measures, forestry protection against fires and the prevention of major risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    As defined by this Act, the objective of the public safety measures is to prevent all types of major risks and to protect persons, property and the environment, including forests, against accidents, disasters and catastrophes. It deals with the conditions for preparing preventive measures and for implementing necessary measures in case of major risks or accidents. The preparation and organization of assistance are determined within the framework of ORSEC (ORganisation des SECours) plans and emergency plans; the first assess the possibilities for facing up to disasters while the latter provide for measures and means to overcome a particular risk [fr

  11. Cost and benefit including value of life, health and environmental damage measured in time units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Key elements of the authors' work on money equivalent time allocation to costs and benefits in risk analysis are put together as an entity. This includes the data supported dimensionless analysis of an equilibrium relation between total population work time and gross domestic product leading...... of this societal value over the actual costs, used by the owner for economically optimizing an activity, motivates a simple risk accept criterion suited to be imposed on the owner by the public. An illustration is given concerning allocation of economical means for mitigation of loss of life and health on a ferry...

  12. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

    1993-05-01

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  13. Risk Assessment Generated by Usage of ICT and Information Security Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilie TAMAS

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information societies involve the usage of information technology and communications (ITC on a large scale. The dependence on ITC is an unquestionable problem in the present, because we assist to a generality of computers usage in all economic and social life activities. That is why organization information systems became accessible at the global level and there are permanently open for a quick exchange of information between different categories of users located by different geographical nods. The ITC usage involves the existing of some risks that should be known, evaluation and based on these, we must have information systems security measure. We consider that the risk is an indicator very important that must be permanently assess in the usage process of the information system based on ITC. Risk management suppose a permanently evaluation of these problems and also restrain by some practical actions who goes to the decrease of its effects. From the expose point of view, in this paper work it is presented the results of research based on specialty literature and current cases from practical activities, regarding the risks of ITC usage and their diminishing measure. There are distinguished the main factors (threat, vulnerability and impact who affect the information risk and on the other way, diminishing measure of the action to these factors for optimum working of an economic and social organism who use ITC. We consider that through proposed measures we assume safety in design process, implement and usage of the informational systems based on ITC.

  14. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  15. How to provide risk information. Based on citizen's evaluation of messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Kosugi, Motoko; Nakamura, Yasushi; Takahashi, Shigeaki; Harayama, Satoko

    2009-01-01

    The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy in Japan, decided in 2005, requests implementation of risk communication to regain social trust on nuclear industry. Electric power companies, however, have few experiences of providing risk information as the first step of risk communication. This report analyzes which message is understandable, useful and trustworthy, by comparing two sets of different messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant, respectively, based on interview survey for 30 people live in Tokyo metropolitan area. Participants in our survey evaluate the message about radiation protection including risk information is more reliable than one without risk information, but the former is less understandable and more anxious than the latter. In the case of messages regarding seismic measures of nuclear power plant, people are not satisfied with the argument which anti-earthquake measures are implemented, but want to know adequate grounds on which to admit that those measures are thorough. Another message of seismic measures we drafted contains basic knowledge about scales of earthquake, and shows that nuclear industry will consider bigger earthquake than ones in the past records, learn from past experience and improve their measures. 70% of participants assess this message more understandable, useful and trustworthy than the other to explain only seismic measures implemented. (author)

  16. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  17. The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yan; Fu Zhiwei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming; Liu Hongquan

    2012-01-01

    The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

  18. A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

    2000-01-01

    A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

  19. A Cyber Security Risk Assessment of Hospital Infrastructure including TLS/SSL and other Threats

    OpenAIRE

    Millar, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    Cyber threats traditionally target governments, financial institutions and businesses. However, of growing concern is the threat to healthcare organizations. This study conducts a cyber security risk assessment of a theoretical hospital environment, to include TLS/SSL, which is an encryption protocol for network communications, plus other physical, logical and human threats. Despite significant budgets in the UK for the NHS, the spend on cyber security appears worryingly low and many hospital...

  20. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  1. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  2. Inter-Rater Agreement of Pressure Ulcer Risk and Prevention Measures in the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators(®) (NDNQI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Shirley Moore; Bergquist-Beringer, Sandra

    2016-06-01

    In this descriptive multi-site study, we examined inter-rater agreement on 11 National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators(®) (NDNQI(®) ) pressure ulcer (PrU) risk and prevention measures. One hundred twenty raters at 36 hospitals captured data from 1,637 patient records. At each hospital, agreement between the most experienced rater and each other team rater was calculated for each measure. In the ratings studied, 528 patients were rated as "at risk" for PrU and, therefore, were included in calculations of agreement for the prevention measures. Prevalence-adjusted kappa (PAK) was used to interpret inter-rater agreement because prevalence of single responses was high. The PAK values for eight measures indicated "substantial" to "near perfect" agreement between most experienced and other team raters: Skin assessment on admission (.977, 95% CI [.966-.989]), PrU risk assessment on admission (.978, 95% CI [.964-.993]), Time since last risk assessment (.790, 95% CI [.729-.852]), Risk assessment method (.997, 95% CI [.991-1.0]), Risk status (.877, 95% CI [.838-.917]), Any prevention (.856, 95% CI [.76-.943]), Skin assessment (.956, 95% CI [.904-1.0]), and Pressure-redistribution surface use (.839, 95% CI [.763-.916]). For three intervention measures, PAK values fell below the recommended value of ≥.610: Routine repositioning (.577, 95% CI [.494-.661]), Nutritional support (.500, 95% CI [.418-.581]), and Moisture management (.556, 95% CI [.469-.643]). Areas of disagreement were identified. Findings provide support for the reliability of 8 of the 11 measures. Further clarification of data collection procedures is needed to improve reliability for the less reliable measures. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

    2014-01-01

    Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

  4. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  5. Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Curtis

    1999-01-01

    This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately

  6. Risk assessment and HbA1c measurement in Norwegian community pharmacies to identify people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes – A feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjome, Reidun Lisbet Skeide; Sandberg, Sverre; Sølvik, Una Ørvim

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Determine the feasibility of using a diabetes risk assessment tool followed by HbA1c-measurement in a community-pharmacy setting in Norway. Methods In this longitudinal study two pharmacists in each of three community pharmacies were trained to perform risk assessments, HbA1c-measurements and counselling. Pharmacy customers who were > 18 years old and could understand and speak Norwegian or English were recruited in the pharmacies during a two-months-period. Information about the service was presented in local newspapers, social media, leaflets and posters at the pharmacy. Customers wishing to participate contacted the pharmacy staff. Participants completed a validated diabetes risk test and a background questionnaire including a validated instrument for self-rated health. A HbA1c measurement was performed for individuals with a moderate to high risk of developing diabetes. If HbA1c ≥ 6.5% they were recommended to visit their general practitioner for follow-up. The pharmacies performed internal and external quality control of the HbA1c instrument. Results Of the 211 included participants 97 (46%) were > 50 years old. HbA1c was measured for the 47 participants (22%) with high risk. Thirty-two (15%) had HbA1c values internal and external quality control for HbA1c were within set limits. Conclusion The pharmacists were able to perform the risk assessment and measurement of HbA1c, and pharmacy customers were willing to participate. The HbA1c measurements fulfilled the requirements for analytical quality. Thus, it is feasible to implement this service in community pharmacies in Norway. In a large-scale study the inclusion criteria should be increased to 45 years in accordance with the population the risk test has been validated for. PMID:29474501

  7. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  8. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  9. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  10. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  11. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness...... are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially...

  12. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  13. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  14. The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

    2016-10-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative

  15. Risk assessment and HbA1c measurement in Norwegian community pharmacies to identify people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes - A feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risøy, Aslaug Johanne; Kjome, Reidun Lisbet Skeide; Sandberg, Sverre; Sølvik, Una Ørvim

    2018-01-01

    Determine the feasibility of using a diabetes risk assessment tool followed by HbA1c-measurement in a community-pharmacy setting in Norway. In this longitudinal study two pharmacists in each of three community pharmacies were trained to perform risk assessments, HbA1c-measurements and counselling. Pharmacy customers who were > 18 years old and could understand and speak Norwegian or English were recruited in the pharmacies during a two-months-period. Information about the service was presented in local newspapers, social media, leaflets and posters at the pharmacy. Customers wishing to participate contacted the pharmacy staff. Participants completed a validated diabetes risk test and a background questionnaire including a validated instrument for self-rated health. A HbA1c measurement was performed for individuals with a moderate to high risk of developing diabetes. If HbA1c ≥ 6.5% they were recommended to visit their general practitioner for follow-up. The pharmacies performed internal and external quality control of the HbA1c instrument. Of the 211 included participants 97 (46%) were > 50 years old. HbA1c was measured for the 47 participants (22%) with high risk. Thirty-two (15%) had HbA1c values HbA1c ≥ 6.5%. Two participants with HbA1 ≥ 6.5% were diagnosed with diabetes by their general practitioner. The third was lost to follow-up. Results from internal and external quality control for HbA1c were within set limits. The pharmacists were able to perform the risk assessment and measurement of HbA1c, and pharmacy customers were willing to participate. The HbA1c measurements fulfilled the requirements for analytical quality. Thus, it is feasible to implement this service in community pharmacies in Norway. In a large-scale study the inclusion criteria should be increased to 45 years in accordance with the population the risk test has been validated for.

  16. Reading curriculum-based measurement: screening Portuguese students at risk for dyslexia

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz, Paula Marisa Fortunato; Martins, Ana Paula Loução

    2016-01-01

    This poster presentation will present results from a study developed within the rst level of support, primary prevention, which was focused on identifying and preventing academic problems from occurring in those students enrolled in a school setting. How progress measurement was used in reading comprehension as a universal school screening system for third-grade Portuguese students will be analyzed. Results for level and growth in both groups of students at risk and not at risk and the risk ...

  17. Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

  18. A measure of fall risk behaviors and perceptions among community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Hon Keung; Carter, Rickey E

    2006-01-01

    Relatively little is known about the interaction between behavioral and environmental circumstances associated with falls among community-dwelling older adults. This study is designed to develop an instrument that measures community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Eighty-seven community-dwelling older adults aged 60 or above (mean +/- SD = 76 +/- 7.9), who had experienced at least one fall in the past 12 months, completed a questionnaire dealing with frequency of their participation in fall risk behaviors, their perceptions of these behaviors, and their fall history. Data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. A 20-item instrument consisting of three constructs was presented as the Fall Risk Behaviors and Perceptions Scale (FRB&PS). Two of the three constructs of the instrument were de-stabilizers and non-supports, both of which measure participation in fall risk behaviors; the third was perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Internal consistency coefficient of the FRB&PS is 0.733 with a root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) score of 0.075, which indicates an adequate model fit. Results from the stepwise regression analyses indicated that adults aged 75 and above (the old-old) participated less frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.025), and had more knowledge about fall risks as measured by a higher perception score (p = 0.025) than those aged 60 to 75 (the young-old). Older men tended to participate more frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.020) than older women; in addition, those older adults who are more mobile (p = 0.002) also participated more frequently in fall risk behaviors than those who are less mobile. Preliminary findings indicate that the pilot FRB&PS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Additional psychometric validation of the FRB&PS on predicting the likelihood of falls is

  19. Behavioral measures of risk tasking, sensation seeking and sensitivity to reward may reflect different motivations for spicy food liking and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrnes, Nadia K; Hayes, John E

    2016-08-01

    Based on work a quarter century ago, it is widely accepted personality traits like sensation seeking are related to the enjoyment and intake of spicy foods; however, data supporting this belief is actually quite limited. Recently, we reported strong to moderate correlations between remembered spicy food liking and two personality traits measured with validated questionnaires. Here, participants consumed capsaicin-containing strawberry jelly to generate acute estimates of spicy food liking. Additionally, we used a laboratory-based behavioral measure of risk taking (the mobile Balloon Analogue Risk Task; mBART) to complement a range of validated self-report measures of risk-related personality traits. Present data confirm Sensation Seeking correlates with overall spicy meal liking and liking of the burn of a spicy meal, and extends prior findings by showing novel correlations with the liking of sampled stimuli. Other personality measures, including Sensitivity to Punishment (SP), Sensitivity to Reward (SR), and the Impulsivity and Risk Taking subscales of the DSM5 Personality Inventory (PID-5) did not show significant relationships with liking of spicy foods, either sampled or remembered. Our behavioral risk taking measure, the mBART, also failed to show a relationship with remembered or sampled liking. However, significant relationships were observed between reported intake of spicy foods and Sensitivity to Reward, and the Risk Taking subscale of the PID-5 (PID5-RT). Based on the observed patterns among various personality measures, and spicy food liking and intake, we propose that personality measures may exert their influence on intake of spicy food via different mechanisms. We also speculate that Sensation Seeking may reflect motivations for consuming spicy foods that are more intrinsic, while the motivations for eating spicy foods measured by SR and PID5-RT may be more extrinsic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Identifying measures to balance the risk profile of the Tihange 2 NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Eer, A.M.; Monniez, J.J.

    2001-01-01

    In Belgium, each Nuclear Power Plant is subject to a periodic safety reassessment. In this context, it was found to be desirable to perform a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in support of the ten yearly back-fitting process. The Tihange 2 NPP is a 3-loop PWR having a thermal capacity of 2905 MW. Analysis of the plant's risk profile shows that implementing feasible measures for improvement of the shutdown risk, would be beneficial. This is because a configuration leading to significant risk, namely cold pressurization when the residual heat removal system is lost during reduced primary inventory, thus can be avoided. As a result the risk between reactor shutdown and power operation will be balanced. The presentation describes the lessons learnt regarding the Tihange 2 shutdown PSA model and the expected benefits following implementation of one of the proposed measures. (author)

  1. Pesticide exposure as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma including histopathological subgroup analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Mikael; Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Akerman, Måns

    2008-10-01

    We report a population based case-control study of exposure to pesticides as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Male and female subjects aged 18-74 years living in Sweden were included during December 1, 1999, to April 30, 2002. Controls were selected from the national population registry. Exposure to different agents was assessed by questionnaire. In total 910 (91 %) cases and 1016 (92%) controls participated. Exposure to herbicides gave odds ratio (OR) 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.51. Regarding phenoxyacetic acids highest risk was calculated for MCPA; OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.27-6.22, all these cases had a latency period >10 years. Exposure to glyphosate gave OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.10-3.71 and with >10 years latency period OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.16-4.40. Insecticides overall gave OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.96-1.72 and impregnating agents OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.07-2.30. Results are also presented for different entities of NHL. In conclusion our study confirmed an association between exposure to phenoxyacetic acids and NHL and the association with glyphosate was considerably strengthened.

  2. Upside and downside beta portfolio construction: A different approach to risk measurement and portfolio construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin Guy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional financial measurements of risk are limited to variance-based methodologies. The most common measurement tool is beta. The beta calculation, however, is directionally agnostic and relies on the assumption of a normal distribution. This is a poor metric by which risk is measured, and is incomplete. The ability to break down beta into Upside and Downside beta allows investors the ability to more intelligently build risk into a portfolio. Using three-year trailing betas may also allow investors the ability to benefit from mean reversion and generate excess returns on a risk-adjusted basis.

  3. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe M. King

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of

  4. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

  5. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

  6. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2018-05-09

    Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  7. Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.

    1997-12-01

    This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process

  8. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  9. Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

    2017-11-01

    This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Measurement of functional independence level and falls-risk in individuals with undiagnosed phenylketonuria.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mazur, Artur

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the level of functional independence in adult patients with previously undiagnosed or untreated phenylketonuria (PKU). The study was conducted among 400 intellectually impaired adult residents of Social Welfare Homes in South-Eastern Poland born prior to the introduction of neonatal PKU screening programs. PKU was screened by filter paper test using tandem mass spectrometry methods, and confirmed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometric analysis of PKU organic acids in urine. Degree of functional independence included the assessment of activities of daily living (Barthel Index) and measures of balance and gait (Tinetti scale). Eleven individuals with previously untreated PKU were identified whereby eight presented with moderate disability and three with mild disability. Six had a high risk of falls and five had a moderate risk of falls. This study indicates that there is considerable number of undiagnosed PKU patients within the Polish population who require assessment and management in order to reduce the impact of the neurological and neuropsychiatric problems associated with the condition. Appropriate therapy for those with undiagnosed PKU should, in particular, address the risk of falls.

  11. Global Analysis of Solar Neutrino Oscillations Including SNO CC Measurement

    CERN Document Server

    Bahcall, J N; Peña-Garay, C; Bahcall, John N; Peña-Garay, Carlos

    2001-01-01

    For active and sterile neutrinos, we present the globally allowed solutions for two neutrino oscillations. We include the SNO CC measurement and all other relevant solar neutrino and reactor data. Five active neutrino oscillation solutions (LMA, LOW, SMA, VAC, and Just So2) are currently allowed at 3 sigma; three sterile neutrino solutions (Just So2, SMA, and VAC) are allowed at 3 sigma. The goodness of fit is satisfactory for all eight solutions. We also investigate the robustness of the allowed solutions by carrying out global analyses with and without: 1) imposing solar model constraints on the 8B neutrino flux, 2) including the Super-Kamiokande spectral energy distribution and day-night data, 3) using an enhanced CC cross section for deuterium (due to radiative corrections), and 4) a optimistic, hypothetical reduction by a factor of three of the error of the SNO CC rate. For every analysis strategy used in this paper, the most favored solutions all involve large mixing angles: LMA, LOW, or VAC. The favore...

  12. The Effect of Shortfall as a Risk measure for Portfolios with Hedge Funds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Siegmann, A.H.

    2008-01-01

    Current research suggests that the large downside risk in hedge fund returns disqualifies the variance as an appropriate risk measure. For example, one can easily construct portfolios with nonlinear pay-offs that have both a high Sharpe ratio and a high downside risk. This paper examines the

  13. Ability of Different Measures of Adiposity to Identify High Metabolic Risk in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Moreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to evaluate the screening performance of different measures of adiposity: body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR for high metabolic risk in a sample of adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 517 adolescents aged 15–18, from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure. HOMA and TC/HDL-C ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score (MRS was constructed by summing the Z-scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ≥1SD of this score. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC were used. Results. Linear regression analyses showed that, after adjusting for age and pubertal stage, all different measures of adiposity are positively and significantly associated with MRS in both sexes, with exception of WHtR for boys. BMI, WC, and WHtR performed well in detecting high MRS, indicated by areas under the curve (AUC, with slightly greater AUC for BMI than for WC and WHtR in both sexes. Conclusion. All measures of adiposity were significantly associated with metabolic risk factors in a sample of Portuguese adolescents.

  14. Aquaplaning : Development of a Risk Pond Model from Road Surface Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Nygårdhs, Sara

    2003-01-01

    Aquaplaning accidents are relatively rare, but could have fatal effects. The task of this master’s thesis is to use data from the Laser Road Surface Tester to detect road sections with risk of aquaplaning. A three-dimensional model based on data from road surface measurements is created using MATLAB (version 6.1). From this general geometrical model of the road, a pond model is produced from which the theoretical risk ponds are detected. A risk pond indication table is fur-ther created. The...

  15. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks; Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... A bank subject to this appendix must have a risk management system that meets the following minimum... management and is independent from business trading units. (2) The bank's internal risk measurement model... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank...

  16. The four Es of problem gambling: a psychological measure of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockloff, Matthew J; Dyer, Victoria

    2006-01-01

    A focus group of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members identified four psychological traits contributing to risk for problem gambling, including: Escape, Esteem, Excess and Excitement. A panel of four experts authored 240 Likert-type items to measure these traits. By design, none of the items explicitly referred to gambling activities. Study 1 narrowed the field of useful items by employing a quasi-experimental design which compared the answers of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members (N = 39) to a control sample (N = 34). Study 2 submitted successful items, plus new items authored with the knowledge gained from Study 1, to validation in a random sample telephone survey across Queensland, Australia (N=2577). The final 40 item Four Es scale (4Es) was reliable (alpha=.90); predicted gambling problems as measured by the Canadian Problem Gambling Index of Severity (PGSI, Ferris & Wynne (2001). The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final Report: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse); and distinguished problem gamblers from persons with alcohol abuse problems. The new scale can provide a basis for further study in harm minimization, treatment, and theory development.

  17. Avian influenza transmission risks: analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssematimba, A; Hagenaars, T J; de Wit, J J; Ruiterkamp, F; Fabri, T H; Stegeman, J A; de Jong, M C M

    2013-04-01

    In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We carried out an in-depth interview study aiming to systematically explore all the poultry production activities to identify the activities that could potentially be related to virus introduction and transmission. One of the between-farm contact risks that were identified is the movement of birds between farms during thinning with violations of on-farm biosecurity protocols. In addition, several other risky management practices, risky visitor behaviours and biosecurity breaches were identified. They include human and fomite contacts that occurred without observing biosecurity protocols, poor waste management practices, presence of other animal species on poultry farms, and poor biosecurity against risks from farm neighbourhood activities. Among the detailed practices identified, taking cell phones and jewellery into poultry houses, not observing shower-in protocols and the exchange of unclean farm equipment were common. Also, sometimes certain protocols or biosecurity facilities were lacking. We also asked the interviewed farmers about their perception of transmission risks and found that they had divergent opinions about the visitor- and neighbourhood-associated risks. We performed a qualitative assessment of contact risks (as transmission pathways) based on contact type, corresponding biosecurity practices, and contact frequency. This assessment suggests that the most risky contact types are bird movements during thinning and restocking, most human movements accessing poultry houses and proximity to other poultry farms. The overall risk posed by persons and equipment accessing storage rooms and the premises-only contacts was considered to be medium. Most of the exposure

  18. Evaluation of easily measured risk factors in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Jacques P

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fracture represents the single most important clinical event in patients with osteoporosis, yet remains under-predicted. As few premonitory symptoms for fracture exist, it is of critical importance that physicians effectively and efficiently identify individuals at increased fracture risk. Methods Of 3426 postmenopausal women in CANDOO, 40, 158, 99, and 64 women developed a new hip, vertebral, wrist or rib fracture, respectively. Seven easily measured risk factors predictive of fracture in research trials were examined in clinical practice including: age (, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+ years, rising from a chair with arms (yes, no, weight (≥ 57kg, maternal history of hip facture (yes, no, prior fracture after age 50 (yes, no, hip T-score (>-1, -1 to >-2.5, ≤-2.5, and current smoking status (yes, no. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results The inability to rise from a chair without the use of arms (3.58; 95% CI: 1.17, 10.93 was the most significant risk factor for new hip fracture. Notable risk factors for predicting new vertebral fractures were: low body weight (1.57; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.37, current smoking (1.95; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.18 and age between 75–79 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.51. New wrist fractures were significantly identified by low body weight (1.71, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90 and prior fracture after 50 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.22. Predictors of new rib fractures include a maternal history of a hip facture (2.89; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.08 and a prior fracture after 50 years (2.16; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.87. Conclusion This study has shown that there exists a variety of predictors of future fracture, besides BMD, that can be easily assessed by a physician. The significance of each variable depends on the site of incident fracture. Of greatest interest is that an inability to rise from a chair is perhaps the most readily identifiable significant risk factor for hip fracture and can be easily incorporated

  19. Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szecsenyi Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD, patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European countries (EPA-Cardio, we have developed and tested a set of standardized measures, linked to previously developed quality indicators. Methods A structured stepwise procedure was followed to develop measures. First, the research team allocated 106 validated quality indicators to one of the three target populations (established CVD, at high risk, at low risk and to different data-collection methods (data abstraction from the medical records, a patient survey, an interview with lead practice GP/a practice survey. Secondly, we selected a number of other validated measures to enrich the assessment. A pilot study was performed to test the feasibility. Finally, we revised the measures based on the findings. Results The EPA-Cardio measures consisted of abstraction forms from the medical-records data of established Coronary Heart Disease (CHD-patients - and high-risk groups, a patient questionnaire for each of the 3 groups, an interview questionnaire for the lead GP and a questionnaire for practice teams. The measures were feasible and accepted by general practices from different countries. Conclusions An internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management, linked to validated quality indicators and tested for feasibility in general practice, is now available. Careful development and pilot testing of the measures are crucial in international studies of quality of healthcare.

  20. Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

    2017-01-01

    A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

  1. Are Cultural Values and Beliefs Included in U.S. Based HIV Interventions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, Gail E.; Williams, John K.; Gupta, Arpana; Malebranche, Dominique

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine the extent to which current U.S. based HIV/AIDS prevention and risk reduction interventions address and include aspects of cultural beliefs in definitions, curricula, measures and related theories that may contradict current safer sex messages. Method A comprehensive literature review was conducted to determine which published HIV/AIDS prevention and risk reduction interventions incorporated aspects of cultural beliefs. Results This review of 166 HIV prevention and risk reduction interventions, published between 1988 and 2010, identified 34 interventions that varied in cultural definitions and the integration of cultural concepts. Conclusion HIV interventions need to move beyond targeting specific populations based upon race/ethnicity, gender, sexual, drug and/or risk behaviors and incorporate cultural beliefs and experiences pertinent to an individual’s risk. Theory based interventions that incorporate cultural beliefs within a contextual framework are needed if prevention and risk reduction messages are to reach targeted at risk populations. Implications for the lack of uniformity of cultural definitions, measures and related theories are discussed and recommendations are made to ensure that cultural beliefs are acknowledged for their potential conflict with safer sex skills and practices. PMID:21884721

  2. Measuring adolescents’ exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L.; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C.; Arseneault, Louise

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents mutlilevel findings on adolescents’ victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severe victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent amongst children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was re-victimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  3. Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Jesús; Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Ángela; Martín, Vicente; Delgado‐Rodríguez, Miguel; Martínez‐Baz, Iván; Baricot, Maretva; Soldevila, Nuria; Mayoral, José M.; Astray, Jenaro; Quintana, José M.; Cantón, Rafael; Castro, Ady; González‐Candelas, Fernando; Alonso, Jordi; Saez, Marc; Tamames, Sonia; Pumarola, Tomás

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Castilla et al. (2013) Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(2) 177–183. Background  The role of different risk exposures and preventive measures against influenza has not been well established. Objective  The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and measures to prevent influenza infection in the community. Methods  We conducted a multicenter case–control study. Cases were 481 outpatients aged 18 years or older with laboratory‐confirmed influenza A(H1N1)09 in the 2009–2010 season in Spain. A control was selected for each case from outpatients from the same area matched by age and date of consultation. Information on risk situations, preventive measures and other variables was obtained by interview and review of the medical record. Results  In the multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, the risk of a diagnosis of influenza increased with the number of cohabitants (compared with <3 cohabitants, three cohabitants had an OR = 1·80, 95% CI 1·12–2·89, and ≥5 cohabitants had an OR = 2·66, 95% CI 1·31–5·41) and for health care workers (OR = 2·94, 95% CI 1·53–5·66). The use of metropolitan public transport was associated with a lower frequency of a diagnosis of influenza (OR = 0·45, 95% CI 0·30–0·68) but not the use of taxis or long‐distance transport. The influenza A(H1N1)09 vaccine had a protective effect (OR = 0·13, 95% CI 0·04–0·48), unlike hand washing after touching contaminated surfaces or the use of alcohol‐based hand sanitizers. Conclusion  The home environment appears to play an important role in the spread of influenza in adults, but not the use of public transport. Health care workers have a higher risk of contracting influenza. Vaccination was the most effective preventive measure. PMID:22458533

  4. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinella Cadoni

    Full Text Available It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  5. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  6. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  7. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  8. Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

  9. Performance measures, hours of caregiving assistance, and risk of adverse care outcomes among older adult users of Medicaid home and community-based services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret K Danilovich

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study used validated physical performance measures to examine function, risk of adverse health outcomes, and the relationship with allocated hours of weekly caregiving assistance among older adults receiving home and community-based services through a Medicaid waiver program. Methods: Older adults (n = 42 completed physical performance measures including grip strength, 30-s chair rise, Timed Up and Go, and gait speed. Demographic information including age, gender, and allocated hours of weekly caregiving assistance were also collected. Results: A majority, 72% of females and 86% of males, had weak grip strength, 57% met criteria for fall risk based on their Timed Up and Go score, 83% had lower extremity strength impairments, and 98% were unable to ambulate more than 1.0 m/s. Frailty was prevalent in the sample with 72% of clients meeting Fried’s frailty criteria. The most significant predictors of allocated hours of weekly caregiving assistance approved for clients were race and gait speed. Conclusion: Based on scores on physical performance measures, clients are at risk of falls, hospitalization, and mortality, and scores indicate an urgent need to assess performance in addition to self-reported activities of daily living limitations for this population. Performance measures associated with quantifiable risk of adverse outcomes can be critical indicators for referrals and services needed to enhance the safety and improve care outcomes for homebound older adults.

  10. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  11. A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

  12. Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderita Sena

    Full Text Available Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

  13. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  14. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  15. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  16. Using alternative or direct anthropometric measurements to assess risk for malnutrition in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorini, Chiara; Collini, Francesca; Castagnoli, Mariangela; Di Bari, Mauro; Cavallini, Maria Chiara; Zaffarana, Nicoletta; Pepe, Pasquale; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Vannacci, Alfredo; Bonaccorsi, Guglielmo

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) to assess the applicability of alternative versus direct anthropometric measurements for evaluating the risk for malnutrition in older individuals living in nursing homes (NHs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 67 NHs in Tuscany, Italy. We measured the weight, standing height (SH), knee height (KH), ulna length (UL), and middle-upper-arm circumference of 641 NH residents. Correlations between the different methods for calculating body mass index (BMI; using direct or alternative measurements) were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman method; agreement in the allocation of participants to the same risk category was assessed by squared weighted kappa statistic and indicators of internal relative validity. The intraclass correlation coefficient for BMI calculated using KH was 0.839 (0.815-0.861), whereas those calculated by UL were 0.890 (0.872-0.905). The limits of agreement were ±6.13 kg/m(2) using KH and ±4.66 kg/m(2) using UL. For BMI calculated using SH, 79.9% of the patients were at low risk, 8.1% at medium risk, and 12.2% at high risk for malnutrition. The agreement between this classification and that obtained using BMI calculated by alternative measurements was "fair-good." When it is not possible to determine risk category by using SH, we suggest using the alternative measurements (primarily UL, due to its highest sensitivity) to predict the height and to compare these evaluations with those obtained by using middle-upper-arm-circumference to predict the BMI. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Measuring attitudes towards nuclear and technological risks (computer programs in SPSS language)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonin, T.V. Jr.

    1981-04-01

    A number of methodologies have been developed for measuring public attitudes towards nuclear and other technological risks. The Fishbein model, as modified by the IAEA Risk Assessment group, and which was found to be applicable for Philippine public attitude measurements, is briefly explained together with two other models which are utilized for comparative correlations. A step by step guide on the procedures involved and the calculations required in measuring and analyzing attitude using these models is likewise described, with special emphasis on the computer processing aspect. The use of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) in the analysis is also described and a number of computer programs in SPSS for the various statistical calculations required in the analysis is presented. (author)

  18. Measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures to assess physical function in young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee osteoarthritis: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroman, S L; Roos, E M; Bennell, K L; Hinman, R S; Dobson, F

    2014-01-01

    To systematically appraise the evidence on measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures to assess physical function in young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA). Electronic searches were performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Scopus and SPORTDiscus in May 2013. Two reviewers independently rated the measurement properties using the 4-point COSMIN checklist. Best evidence synthesis was made using COSMIN quality, consistency and direction of findings and sample size. Twenty of 2736 papers were eligible for inclusion and 24 different performance-based outcome measures knee or obese populations were evaluated. No tests related to hip populations were included. Twenty-five measurement properties including reliability (nine studies), construct validity (hypothesis testing) (nine studies), measurement error (three studies), structural validity (two studies), interpretability (one study) and responsiveness (one study) were evaluated. A positive rating was given to 12.5% (30/240) of all possible measurement ratings. Tests were grouped into two categories based on the population characteristics. The one-legged hop for distance, followed by the 6-m timed hop and cross over hop for distance were the best-rated tests for the knee-injured population. Whereas the 6-min walk test was the only included test for the obese population. This review highlights the many gaps in knowledge about the measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures for young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee OA. There is a need for consensus on which outcome measures should be used and/or combined when assessing physical function in this population. Further good quality research is required. Copyright © 2013 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Improving Supply Chain Risk Management by Introducing Performance Measurement Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ryding, Anna; Sahlin, Jonatan

    2013-01-01

    Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a topic that gains more and more interest from both the academic and practitioner’s perspective. The reason for this is the increased complexity in the global supply chain (SC) networks and many managers do not realize the risks they build in their SC by the continuous search to cut cost and decrease tied up capital. One problem with SCRM is that it is hard to measure the performance of it and if it is really beneficial to work with it. The objective for...

  20. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawu, Rebecca; Quansah, Joseph E.; Fall, Souleymane; Gichuhi, Peter N.; Bovell-Benjamin, Adelia C.

    2015-01-01

    In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs) were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%), restaurants (19.7%), fast food restaurants (16.4%), small supermarkets (8.2%), and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %), respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices. PMID:26844138

  1. Nuclear medicine. In vivo diagnosis, PET not included

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herain, C.; Machacek, C.; Menechal, P.; Aubert, B.; Rehel, J.L.; Vidal, J.P.; Biau, A.; Barbe, R.; Lahaye, T.; Gauron, C.; Barret, C.; Donnarieix, D.; Gambini, D.; Gondran, C.; Guerin, C.; Marande, J.L.; Mercier, J.; Paycha, F.; Pierrat, N.

    2011-12-01

    This document deals with radiation protection measures and practices in the medical sector, more particularly when performing in vivo diagnosis in nuclear medicine. It indicates the concerned personnel, the procedure process, the associated hazards and the risks related to ionizing radiation (for sealed and unsealed sources). It describes how risk is to be assessed and exposure levels are to be determined (elements of risk assessment, delimitation of controlled and monitored areas, personnel classification). It presents the different aspects of a risk management strategy (risk reduction, technical measures for the premises, the installation, radioactive wastes, and for radioactive effluents, protection measures and equipment, training and information, prevention, treatment of incidents and dysfunctions). It describes the various aspects of medical monitoring (personnel, pregnant and breast feeding women, medical and post-occupational file, processing of anomalies and incidents). It presents how risk management is to be assessed, and briefly evokes other related risks. An appendix presents an example of a workstation study in case of nuclear medicine

  2. IntelliGO: a new vector-based semantic similarity measure including annotation origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devignes Marie-Dominique

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Gene Ontology (GO is a well known controlled vocabulary describing the biological process, molecular function and cellular component aspects of gene annotation. It has become a widely used knowledge source in bioinformatics for annotating genes and measuring their semantic similarity. These measures generally involve the GO graph structure, the information content of GO aspects, or a combination of both. However, only a few of the semantic similarity measures described so far can handle GO annotations differently according to their origin (i.e. their evidence codes. Results We present here a new semantic similarity measure called IntelliGO which integrates several complementary properties in a novel vector space model. The coefficients associated with each GO term that annotates a given gene or protein include its information content as well as a customized value for each type of GO evidence code. The generalized cosine similarity measure, used for calculating the dot product between two vectors, has been rigorously adapted to the context of the GO graph. The IntelliGO similarity measure is tested on two benchmark datasets consisting of KEGG pathways and Pfam domains grouped as clans, considering the GO biological process and molecular function terms, respectively, for a total of 683 yeast and human genes and involving more than 67,900 pair-wise comparisons. The ability of the IntelliGO similarity measure to express the biological cohesion of sets of genes compares favourably to four existing similarity measures. For inter-set comparison, it consistently discriminates between distinct sets of genes. Furthermore, the IntelliGO similarity measure allows the influence of weights assigned to evidence codes to be checked. Finally, the results obtained with a complementary reference technique give intermediate but correct correlation values with the sequence similarity, Pfam, and Enzyme classifications when compared to

  3. A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

    2015-09-22

    A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121-1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms.

  4. Are cultural values and beliefs included in U.S. based HIV interventions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, Gail E; Williams, John K; Gupta, Arpana; Malebranche, Dominique

    2012-11-01

    To determine the extent to which current United States based human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) prevention and risk reduction interventions address and include aspects of cultural beliefs in definitions, curricula, measures and related theories that may contradict current safer sex messages. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to determine which published human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) prevention and risk reduction interventions incorporated aspects of cultural beliefs. This review of 166 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and risk reduction interventions, published between 1988 and 2010, identified 34 interventions that varied in cultural definitions and the integration of cultural concepts. human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interventions need to move beyond targeting specific populations based upon race/ethnicity, gender, sexual, drug and/or risk behaviors and incorporate cultural beliefs and experiences pertinent to an individual's risk. Theory based interventions that incorporate cultural beliefs within a contextual framework are needed if prevention and risk reduction messages are to reach targeted at risk populations. Implications for the lack of uniformity of cultural definitions, measures and related theories are discussed and recommendations are made to ensure that cultural beliefs are acknowledged for their potential conflict with safer sex skills and practices. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Human Health Risk Assessment of a landfill based on volatile organic compounds emission, immission and soil gas concentration measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martí, Vicenç; Jubany, Irene; Pérez, Consol; Rubio, Xavier; De Pablo, Joan; Giménez, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • VOCs were quantified as emission fluxes, immission and soil–gas levels. • HHRA was performed with these measurements and admissible risk was obtained. • VOCs that contributed more to risk indexes were chlorinated aliphatics hydrocarbons. • The methodology approach can be applied to other landfills with potential risk. - Abstract: A Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) was required for a closed landfill located in Cerdanyola del Vallès (Barcelona, Spain). The HHRA had two objectives, to evaluate the present risk of the identified receptors in the area and to safely develop the future urban planning of the area, therefore 3 scenarios for the current situation and 4 for the future situation were developed. After reviewing the existing data and exploring the needs of information, the assessment in this study was focused on the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) fluxes from the subsoil (emission from the landfill at 5 points), concentrations of VOCs in the air (immission in 4 urban sites) and concentration of VOCs in soil–gas (measurements at 5 m below ground surface outside the landfill at 8 sites). Around 70 VOCs were analyzed by using multi-sorbent tubes and Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography (TD–GC–MS). The VOCs that were detected and quantified include alkanes, aromatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, ketones, halocarbons, aldehydes, esters, terpenoids, ethers and some nitrogenated and sulfur compounds, furans and carboxylic acids. Specific mercury flux measurements were performed in a hot spot by using carulite tubes, that were also analyzed by using Thermal Decomposition, Amalgamation, and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry. Results showed average values of volatile emission fluxes ranging from non-detected to 331 μg m −2 day −1 (dichlorodifluoromethane). In the case of immission, the concentration of VOCs measured in the air of populated area surrounding the landfill ranged values from non-detected to 42.0 μg m −3

  6. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  7. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

    2011-11-15

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  8. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  9. Comparing variation in hospital rates of cesarean delivery among low-risk women using 3 different measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Joanne C; Kozhimannil, Katy B; McDermott, Patricia; Saade, George R; Srinivas, Sindhu K

    2016-02-01

    This report describes the development of a measure of low-risk cesarean delivery by the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM). Safely lowering the cesarean delivery rate is a priority for maternity care clinicians and health care delivery systems. Therefore, hospital quality assurance programs are increasingly tracking cesarean delivery rates among low-risk pregnancies. Two commonly used definitions of "low risk" are available, the Joint Commission (JC) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) measures, but these measures are not clinically comprehensive. We sought to refine the definition of the low-risk cesarean delivery rate to enhance the validity of the metric for quality measurement. We created this refined definition-called the SMFM definition-and compared it to the JC and AHRQ measures using claims-based data from the 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample of >863,000 births in 612 hospitals. Using these definitions, we calculated means and interquartile ranges (25th-75th percentile range) for hospital low-risk cesarean delivery rates, stratified by hospital size, teaching status, urban/rural location, and payer mix. Across all hospitals, the mean low-risk cesarean delivery rate was lowest for the SMFM definition (12.65%), but not substantially different from the JC and AHRQ measures (13.12% and 13.29%, respectively). We empirically examined the SMFM definition to ensure its validity and utility. This refined definition performs similarly to existing measures and has the added advantage of clinical perspective, enhanced face validity, and ease of use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  11. Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, William; Ganna, Andrea; Ingelsson, Erik; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population. Using simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease. We estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval. We conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

    2015-09-01

    Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  13. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  14. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, K M; Paiva, L L; Sanchez, S E; Revilla, L; Lopez, T; Yasuda, M B; Yanez, N D; Gelaye, B; Williams, M A

    2011-01-24

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  15. Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushley, Stephanie; Carter, Matthew; Chiou, Charles; Farmer, Richard; Haywood, Kevin; Pototzky, Anthony, Jr.; White, Adam; Winker, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

  16. QMRAcatch: Microbial Quality Simulation of Water Resources including Infection Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schijven, Jack; Derx, Julia; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Farnleitner, Andreas H

    2015-09-01

    Given the complex hydrologic dynamics of water catchments and conflicts between nature protection and public water supply, models may help to understand catchment dynamics and evaluate contamination scenarios and may support best environmental practices and water safety management. A catchment model can be an educative tool for investigating water quality and for communication between parties with different interests in the catchment. This article introduces an interactive computational tool, QMRAcatch, that was developed to simulate concentrations in water resources of , a human-associated microbial source tracking (MST) marker, enterovirus, norovirus, , and as target microorganisms and viruses (TMVs). The model domain encompasses a main river with wastewater discharges and a floodplain with a floodplain river. Diffuse agricultural sources of TMVs that discharge into the main river are not included in this stage of development. The floodplain river is fed by the main river and may flood the plain. Discharged TMVs in the river are subject to dilution and temperature-dependent degradation. River travel times are calculated using the Manning-Gauckler-Strickler formula. Fecal deposits from wildlife, birds, and visitors in the floodplain are resuspended in flood water, runoff to the floodplain river, or infiltrate groundwater. Fecal indicator and MST marker data facilitate calibration. Infection risks from exposure to the pathogenic TMVs by swimming or drinking water consumption are calculated, and the required pathogen removal by treatment to meet a health-based quality target can be determined. Applicability of QMRAcatch is demonstrated by calibrating the tool for a study site at the River Danube near Vienna, Austria, using field TMV data, including a sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the model outcomes. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. The reliability of transabdominal cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population: Comparison with transvaginal measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Cheng-Ran; Chen, Chie-Pein; Wang, Kuo-Gon; Wang, Liang-Kai; Chen, Chen-Yu; Chen, Yi-Yung

    2015-04-01

    To determine the correlation between transabdominal (TA) and transvaginal (TV) cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population in Taiwan. Women with a singleton pregnancy between 20 weeks and 24 weeks of gestation underwent postvoid TA and TV cervical length measurements. Differences between the measurements obtained using the two methods were evaluated. Two hundred and five women agreed to participate in the study. Paired TA and TV measurements were obtained in 174 women. The mean TA cervical length was 36.0 ± 4.9 mm and the mean TV cervical length was 37.6 ± 5.4 mm. The mean TA cervical length was shorter than the mean TV cervical length by 1.6 mm. The 5(th) percentile of TA and TV cervical length was 29 mm and 29.1 mm, respectively. The discrepancies between the two methods were not significantly correlated with maternal body mass index (BMI). All women with TV cervical length women in the present study, and the TA cervical length was closely correlated with the TV cervical length. The use of TA ultrasound could be an effective initial tool for cervical length screening in low-risk pregnant women. TA cervical length TV ultrasound. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

    2017-08-01

    A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

  19. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  20. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  1. Including health insurance in poverty measurement: The impact of Massachusetts health reform on poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenman, Sanders D; Remler, Dahlia K

    2016-12-01

    We develop and implement what we believe is the first conceptually valid health-inclusive poverty measure (HIPM) - a measure that includes health care or insurance in the poverty needs threshold and health insurance benefits in family resources - and we discuss its limitations. Building on the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure, we construct a pilot HIPM for the under-65 population under ACA-like health reform in Massachusetts. This pilot demonstrates the practicality, face validity and value of a HIPM. Results suggest that public health insurance benefits and premium subsidies accounted for a substantial, one-third reduction in the health inclusive poverty rate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Three Risk Tolerance Measures: Turkey and the United States Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ruiz-Manjivar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An individual’s attitude toward financial risk tolerance (FRT is an important preference that influences financial decision-making under uncertainty. FRT involves inter-temporal resource allocation. Accurate and reliable measures of FRT are essential for professionals advising consumers as well as researchers who are trying to predict, and understand consumer behavior. This study explores cross-cultural risk tolerance by comparing random samples from Turkey, and the United States. Similar and distinctive attitudes and patterns regarding FRT are identified. Three subjective measures of FRT are employed in this study: Grable and Lytton (1999, Hanna, Gutter and Fan’s (2001 improved version of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997, and the Survey of Consumer Finance’s item on risk tolerance. Data was collected via an online survey that used the above-mentioned FRT measures. There were two versions: the original American English version, and a culturally translated Turkish version. To explore the correlation of FRT among measures, we use bivariate analysis by individually employing Pearson Chi-square test of independence, and cross tabulations analysis to each sample. In addition, by pooling both samples, we conduct cumulative logistic regression. We delineate FRT differences and consistencies between countries across subjective financial risk tolerance measures.

  3. Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yijun

    The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

  4. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; Van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-01-01

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format.

  5. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  6. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

    2014-03-01

    This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

  7. Occupational risk factors for skin cancer and the availability of sun protection measures at German outdoor workplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppert, Linda; Ofenloch, Robert; Surber, Christian; Diepgen, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Germany implemented a new occupational disease "squamous cell carcinoma or multiple actinic keratosis due to natural UV radiation (UVR)" into the German ordinance on occupational diseases. Since primary prevention is very important, the aim of this study was to assess the provision of sun protection measures by the employers in vocational school students for outdoor professions. We conducted a cross-sectional study on the availability of sun protection measures at German workplaces and the risk of occupational sunburn by surveying 245 vocational school students working in outdoor occupations. More than 40 % of the students did not receive any sun protection measures by their employer, and 34.5 % of the students got sunburned during work. Working in the shade was a protective factor for occupational sunburn but was merely available for 23.7 % of the outdoor workers. Our study reveals a strong need for effective sun protection measures, including both administrative controls like education and personal protection measures at German outdoor workplaces.

  8. Prenatal Triclosan Exposure and Anthropometric Measures Including Anogenital Distance in Danish Infants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Tina Harmer; Frederiksen, Hanne; Kyhl, Henriette Boye

    2016-01-01

    , Swan SH, Main KM, Andersson AM, Lind DV, Husby S, Wohlfahrt-Veje C, Skakkebæk NE, Jensen TK. 2016. Prenatal triclosan exposure and anthropometric measures including anogenital distance in Danish infants. Environ Health Perspect 124:1261-1268; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409637.......BACKGROUND: Triclosan (TCS) is widely used as an antibacterial agent in consumer products such as hand soap and toothpaste, and human exposure is widespread. TCS is suspected of having endocrine-disrupting properties, but few human studies have examined the developmental effects of prenatal TCS...

  9. Optimal central obesity measurement site for assessing cardiometabolic and type 2 diabetes risk in middle-aged adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seán R Millar

    Full Text Available Despite recommendations that central obesity assessment should be employed as a marker of cardiometabolic health, no consensus exists regarding measurement protocol. This study examined a range of anthropometric variables and their relationships with cardiometabolic features and type 2 diabetes in order to ascertain whether measurement site influences discriminatory accuracy. In particular, we compared waist circumference (WC measured at two sites: (1 immediately below the lowest rib (WC rib and (2 between the lowest rib and iliac crest (WC midway, which has been recommended by the World Health Organisation and International Diabetes Federation.This was a cross-sectional study involving a random sample of 2,002 men and women aged 46-73 years. Metabolic profiles and WC, hip circumference, pelvic width and body mass index (BMI were determined. Correlation, logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to evaluate obesity measurement relationships with metabolic risk phenotypes and type 2 diabetes.WC rib measures displayed the strongest associations with non-optimal lipid and lipoprotein levels, high blood pressure, insulin resistance, impaired fasting glucose, a clustering of metabolic risk features and type 2 diabetes, in both genders. Rib-derived indices improved discrimination of type 2 diabetes by 3-7% compared to BMI and 2-6% compared to WC midway (in men and 5-7% compared to BMI and 4-6% compared to WC midway (in women. A prediction model including BMI and central obesity displayed a significantly higher area under the curve for WC rib (0.78, P=0.003, Rib/height ratio (0.80, P<0.001, Rib/pelvis ratio (0.79, P<0.001, but not for WC midway (0.75, P=0.127, when compared to one with BMI alone (0.74.WC rib is easier to assess and our data suggest that it is a better method for determining obesity-related cardiometabolic risk than WC midway. The clinical utility of rib-derived indices, or

  10. Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

    2017-01-01

    Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  12. Spectral interferometry including the effect of transparent thin films to measure distances and displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlubina, P.

    2004-01-01

    A spectral-domain interferometric technique is applied for measuring mirror distances and displacements in a dispersive Michelson interferometer when the effect of transparent thin films coated onto the interferometer beam splitter and compensator is known. We employ a low-resolution spectrometer in two experiments with different amounts of dispersion in a Michelson interferometer that includes fused-silica optical sample. Knowing the thickness of the optical sample and the nonlinear phase function of the thin films, the positions of the interferometer mirror are determined precisely by a least-squares fitting of the theoretical spectral interferograms to the recorded ones. We compare the results of the processing that include and do not include the effect of transparent thin films (Author)

  13. Lifestyle Advice Combined with Personalized Estimates of Genetic or Phenotypic Risk of Type 2 Diabetes, and Objectively Measured Physical Activity: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Job G Godino

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Information about genetic and phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes is now widely available and is being incorporated into disease prevention programs. Whether such information motivates behavior change or has adverse effects is uncertain. We examined the effect of communicating an estimate of genetic or phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes in a parallel group, open, randomized controlled trial.We recruited 569 healthy middle-aged adults from the Fenland Study, an ongoing population-based, observational study in the east of England (Cambridgeshire, UK. We used a computer-generated random list to assign participants in blocks of six to receive either standard lifestyle advice alone (control group, n = 190 or in combination with a genetic (n = 189 or a phenotypic (n = 190 risk estimate for type 2 diabetes (intervention groups. After 8 wk, we measured the primary outcome, objectively measured physical activity (kJ/kg/day, and also measured several secondary outcomes (including self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, anxiety, and perceived risk. The study was powered to detect a between-group difference of 4.1 kJ/kg/d at follow-up. 557 (98% participants completed the trial. There were no significant intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline: genetic risk group versus control group 0.85 kJ/kg/d (95% CI -2.07 to 3.77, p = 0.57; phenotypic risk group versus control group 1.32 (95% CI -1.61 to 4.25, p = 0.38; and genetic risk group versus phenotypic risk group -0.47 (95% CI -3.40 to 2.46, p = 0.75. No significant differences in self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, and anxiety were observed between trial groups. Estimates of perceived risk were significantly more accurate among those who received risk information than among those who did not. Key limitations include the recruitment of a sample that may not be representative of the UK population, use of self-reported secondary outcome

  14. Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data...

  15. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  16. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  17. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Knowles

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP. Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR, waist-height ratio (WHtR, and visceral adiposity index (VAI were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG. For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  18. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  19. Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2018-01-01

    The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

  20. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  1. Cancer risks related to low-level RF/MW exposures, including cell phones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmigielski, Stanislaw

    2013-09-01

    For years, radiofrequency (RF) and microwave (MW) radiations have been applied in the modern world. The rapidly increasing use of cellular phones called recent attention to the possible health risks of RF/MW exposures. In 2011, a group of international experts organized by IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon) concluded that RF/MW radiations should be listed as a possible carcinogen (group 2B) for humans. Three meta-analyses of case-control studies have concluded that using cell phones for more than ten years was associated with an increase in the overall risk of developing a brain tumor. The Interphone Study, the largest health-related case-control international study of use of cell phones and head and neck tumors, showed no statistically significant increases in brain cancers related to higher amounts of cell phone use, but excess risk in a small subgroup of more heavily exposed users associated with latency and laterality was reported. So far, the published studies do not show that mobile phones could for sure increase the risk of cancer. This conclusion is based on the lack of a solid biological mechanism, and the fact that brain cancer rates are not going up significantly. However, all of the studies so far have weaknesses, which make it impossible to entirely rule out a risk. Mobile phones are still a new technology and there is little evidence about effects of long-term use. For this reason, bioelectromagnetic experts advise application of a precautionary resources. It suggests that if people want to use a cell phone, they can choose to minimize their exposure by keeping calls short and preferably using hand-held sets. It also advises discouraging children from making non essential calls as well as also keeping their calls short.

  2. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  3. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  4. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk, S. B.; Takken, T.; Prinsen, E. C.; Wittink, H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ra...

  5. A Value Measure for Public-Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Kenneth C; Abbas, Ali E

    2018-05-01

    This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Living with risk. The British Medical Association guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    Personal risk estimation is discussed under the following headings: history and background of risk study, the nature and measurement of risk, the main causes of death, major risk factors (smoking, alcohol and other drugs, diet), occupational risks, transport, risks in the home, recreational risks, medicine and surgery, natural disasters, chemical risks, the perception, acceptability and management of risk, and risks and energy production. The latter chapter includes consideration of comparative risks in electricity generation. The extraction of fuel for, construction and operation of nuclear power stations is discussed, including references to Sellafield, leukemia clustering, and the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters.

  7. The Relationship between Market and Accounting Determined Risk Measures: Reviewing and Updating the Beaver, Kettler, Scholes (1970) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvela, Michael; Kozyra, James; Potter, Carla

    2009-01-01

    The association between market-determined risk measures and accounting-determined risk measures was originally explored in the 1970s by Beaver, Kettler, and Scholes (BKS). The results of the BKS (1970) study suggest that accounting information is usefulness in assessing firm specific risk. Since BKS, there have been few studies conducted to…

  8. Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Dunning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years. Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%. However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032 if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009 and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006— an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  9. Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    to obtain risk-averse and robust solutions, respectively. Computational results are presented on a real-life case study to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approaches. To compare these different decision-making situations, a simulation approach is used. Furthermore, by several test problems......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

  10. Modeling strategy to identify patients with primary immunodeficiency utilizing risk management and outcome measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modell, Vicki; Quinn, Jessica; Ginsberg, Grant; Gladue, Ron; Orange, Jordan; Modell, Fred

    2017-06-01

    This study seeks to generate analytic insights into risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. The Jeffrey Modell Centers Network database, Jeffrey Modell Foundation's 10 Warning Signs, the 4 Stages of Testing Algorithm, physician-reported clinical outcomes, programs of physician education and public awareness, the SPIRIT® Analyzer, and newborn screening, taken together, generates P values of less than 0.05%. This indicates that the data results do not occur by chance, and that there is a better than 95% probability that the data are valid. The objectives are to improve patients' quality of life, while generating significant reduction of costs. The advances of the world's experts aligned with these JMF programs can generate analytic insights as to risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. This strategy reduces the uncertainties related to primary immunodeficiency risks, as we can screen, test, identify, and treat undiagnosed patients. We can also address regional differences and prevalence, age, gender, treatment modalities, and sites of care, as well as economic benefits. These tools support high net benefits, substantial financial savings, and significant reduction of costs. All stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, third party payers, and government healthcare agencies, must address the earliest possible precise diagnosis, appropriate intervention and treatment, as well as stringent control of healthcare costs through risk assessment and outcome measurement. An affected patient is entitled to nothing less, and stakeholders are responsible to utilize tools currently available. Implementation offers a significant challenge to the entire primary immunodeficiency community.

  11. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank

    2006-01-01

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  12. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  13. Analysis of the effectiveness of the variance and Downside Risk measures for formation of investment portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariúcha Nóbrega Bezerra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the efficacy of variance and measures of downside risk for of formation of investment portfolios in the Brazilian stock market. Using the methodologies of Ang (1975, Markowitz et al. (1993, Ballestero (2005, Estrada (2008 and Cumova and Nawrocki (2011, sought to find what the best method to solve the problem of asymmetric and endogenous matrix and, inspired by the work of Markowitz (1952 and Lohre, Neumann and Winterfeldt (2010, intended to be seen which risk metric is most suitable for the realization of more efficient allocation of resources in the stock market in Brazil. The sample was composed of stocks of IBrX 50, from 2000 to 2013. The results indicated that when the semivariance was used as a measure of asymmetric risk, if the investor can use more refined models for solving the problem of asymmetric semivariance-cosemivariance matrix, the model of Cumova and Nawrocki (2011 will be more effective. Furthermore, from the Brazilian data, VaR had become more effective than variance and other measures of downside risk with respect to minimizing the risk of loss. Thus, taken the assumption that the investor has asymmetric preferences regarding risk, forming portfolios of stocks in the Brazilian market is more efficient when using criteria of minimizing downside risk than the traditional mean-variance approach.

  14. Differences in Measuring Market Risk in Four Subsectors of the Digital Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Sonia Benito; Rebeca de Juan; Ricardo Gómez; Francisco Mochón

    2015-01-01

    This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to estimate market risk of the four subsectors of the digital economy. The riskiest subsector is Mobile/Inter...

  15. The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

    2013-11-01

    Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

  16. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  17. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-05-03

    The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

  18. Validity of a questionnaire measuring motives for choosing foods including sustainable concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sautron, Valérie; Péneau, Sandrine; Camilleri, Géraldine M; Muller, Laurent; Ruffieux, Bernard; Hercberg, Serge; Méjean, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Since the 1990s, sustainability of diet has become an increasingly important concern for consumers. However, there is no validated multidimensional measurement of motivation in the choice of foods including a concern for sustainability currently available. In the present study, we developed a questionnaire that measures food choice motives during purchasing, and we tested its psychometric properties. The questionnaire included 104 items divided into four predefined dimensions (environmental, health and well-being, economic and miscellaneous). It was administered to 1000 randomly selected subjects participating in the Nutrinet-Santé cohort study. Among 637 responders, one-third found the questionnaire complex or too long, while one-quarter found it difficult to fill in. Its underlying structure was determined by exploratory factor analysis and then internally validated by confirmatory factor analysis. Reliability was also assessed by internal consistency of selected dimensions and test-retest repeatability. After selecting the most relevant items, first-order analysis highlighted nine main dimensions: labeled ethics and environment, local and traditional production, taste, price, environmental limitations, health, convenience, innovation and absence of contaminants. The model demonstrated excellent internal validity (adjusted goodness of fit index = 0.97; standardized root mean square residuals = 0.07) and satisfactory reliability (internal consistency = 0.96, test-retest repeatability coefficient ranged between 0.31 and 0.68 over a mean 4-week period). This study enabled precise identification of the various dimensions in food choice motives and proposed an original, internally valid tool applicable to large populations for assessing consumer food motivation during purchasing, particularly in terms of sustainability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Methodology for analyzing risk at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Hosik; Lee, Nayoung; Ham, Taekyu; Seo, Janghoon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new methodology for evaluating the risk at nuclear facilities was developed. • Five measures reflecting all factors that should be concerned to assess risk were developed. • The attributes on NMAC and nuclear security culture are included as attributes for analyzing. • The newly developed methodology can be used to evaluate risk of both existing facility and future nuclear system. - Abstract: A methodology for evaluating risks at nuclear facilities is developed in this work. A series of measures is drawn from the analysis of factors that determine risks. Five measures are created to evaluate risks at nuclear facilities. These include the legal and institutional framework, material control, physical protection system effectiveness, human resources, and consequences. Evaluation attributes are developed for each measure and specific values are given in order to calculate the risk value quantitatively. Questionnaires are drawn up on whether or not a state has properly established a legal and regulatory framework (based on international standards). These questionnaires can be a useful measure for comparing the status of the physical protection regime between two countries. Analyzing an insider threat is not an easy task and no methodology has been developed for this purpose. In this study, attributes that could quantitatively evaluate an insider threat, in the case of an unauthorized removal of nuclear materials, are developed by adopting the Nuclear Material Accounting & Control (NMAC) system. The effectiveness of a physical protection system, P(E), could be analyzed by calculating the probability of interruption, P(I), and the probability of neutralization, P(N). In this study, the Tool for Evaluating Security System (TESS) code developed by KINAC is used to calculate P(I) and P(N). Consequence is an important measure used to analyze risks at nuclear facilities. This measure comprises radiological, economic, and social damage. Social and

  20. A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a

  1. MEASURING PATH DEPENDENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Juhasz

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available While risk management gained popularity during the last decades even some of the basic risk types are still far out of focus. One of these is path dependency that refers to the uncertainty of how we reach a certain level of total performance over time. While decision makers are careful in accessing how their position will look like the end of certain periods, little attention is given how they will get there through the period. The uncertainty of how a process will develop across a shorter period of time is often “eliminated” by simply choosing a longer planning time interval, what makes path dependency is one of the most often overlooked business risk types. After reviewing the origin of the problem we propose and compare seven risk measures to access path. Traditional risk measures like standard deviation of sub period cash flows fail to capture this risk type. We conclude that in most cases considering the distribution of the expected cash flow effect caused by the path dependency may offer the best method, but we may need to use several measures at the same time to include all the optimisation limits of the given firm

  2. Measuring the default risk of sovereign debt from the perspective of network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Hongwei; Ho, Hwai-Chung

    2013-05-01

    Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in the fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according to the debt-credit relations instead of using the conventional methodology to measure the default risk. Based on the model, a risk index is examined using the quarterly report of consolidated foreign claims from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and debt/GDP ratios among these reporting countries. The empirical results show that this index can help the regulators and practitioners not only to determine the status of interconnectivity but also to point out the degree of the sovereign debt default risk. Our approach sheds new light on the investigation of quantifying the systemic risk.

  3. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  4. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (1) Nuclear safety for accident scenario and measures for fault movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Chiba, Go; Okamoto, Koji; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Yamazaki, Haruo; Konagai, Kazuo; Kamiya, Masanobu; Nagasawa, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Japan, as a frequent earthquake country, has a responsibility to resolve efficient measures to enhance nuclear safety, to continue utilizing the nuclear power, based on the risks and importance levels in the scientific and rational manner. In his paper describes how to evaluate the risk of faults movement by engineering approach. An open fruitful discussion by experts in the various area of earthquake, geology, geotechnical, civil, and a seismic design as well as other stakeholders such as academia professors, nuclear reactor engineers, regulators, and licensees. The Atomic Energy Society established an Investigation Committee on Development of Activity and Risk Evaluation Method for Faults by Engineering Approach (IC-DAREFEA) on October 1st, a 2014. The Investigation Committee utilizes the most advanced scientific and rational judgement, and continuous discussions and efforts in the global field, in order to collect and organize these knowledge and reflect the global standards and nuclear regulations, such as risk evaluation method for the faults movements and prevention of severe accidents, based on the accumulated database in the world, including Chuetsuoki Earthquake, North Nagano Earthquake and Kumamoto Earthquake. (author)

  5. Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

    2018-04-15

    Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A comparison of the risk measures between VHTR and LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok-Jung; Yang, Joon-Eon; Lee, Won-Jea

    2007-01-01

    Because the safety characteristics of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) are different to that of light water reactors (LWRs), it is necessary to develop an adequate probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology in order to perform a risk assessment. The inherent safety features of the VHTR are (1) simplified safety functions (2) the absence of the large release of radioactive materials such as a severe accident in LWRs. The PSA methodology for LWRs cannot be directly applied in a VHTR PSA. This paper proposes a PSA methodology for a VHTR. The essential point of the proposed methodology is to define end states of accident sequences in order to establish the risk measures for a VHTR PSA. This paper compares them with that for LWRs to discuss the differences of them

  7. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  8. Multi-objective portfolio optimization of mutual funds under downside risk measure using fuzzy theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Amiri

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Mutual fund is one of the most popular techniques for many people to invest their funds where a professional fund manager invests people's funds based on some special predefined objectives; therefore, performance evaluation of mutual funds is an important problem. This paper proposes a multi-objective portfolio optimization to offer asset allocation. The proposed model clusters mutual funds with two methods based on six characteristics including rate of return, variance, semivariance, turnover rate, Treynor index and Sharpe index. Semivariance is used as a downside risk measure. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy variables for return rate and semivariance. A multi-objective fuzzy mean-semivariance portfolio optimization model is implemented and fuzzy programming technique is adopted to solve the resulted problem. The proposed model of this paper has gathered the information of mutual fund traded on Nasdaq from 2007 to 2009 and Pareto optimal solutions are obtained considering different weights for objective functions. The results of asset allocation, rate of return and risk of each cluster are also determined and they are compared with the results of two clustering methods.

  9. The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in Islamic banking industry of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Nikomaram

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An integrated risk management is a process, which enables banks to measure and manage all risks, simultaneously. The recent turbulent chaos on banking industry has increase the relative importance of risk management, more than before. This paper investigates the relationship between credit risk and liquidity risk among Iranian banks. The proposed study includes all private and governmental banks as population over the period 2005-2012. The results Pearson correlation has disclosed a positive and meaningful relationship between credit and liquidity risks. Bank size also impacts on two mentioned risk factors but we there seems to be no relationship between financial chaos and type of ownership with risk factors.

  10. The role of geriatric assessment tests and anthropometric measurements in identifying the risk of falls in elderly nursing home residents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yardimci, Bulent; Aran, Sinan N.; Ozkaya, Ismail; Aksoy, Sevki M.; Demir, Tarik; Tezcan, Gulsen; Kaptanoglu, Aysegul Y.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To determine the relation among the risk of falls, geriatric assessment, and anthropometric measurements, including the mini mental state examination, geriatric depression scale, handgrip test, and key pinch test. Methods: This prospective study included 89 residents hospitalized between May 2014 and September 2015 in the geriatric care unit of the Istanbul Balikli Rum Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey. Patients were followed-up for one year, and their falls were recorded. Medical records of the included patients were retrieved and analyzed. Results: A total of 89 patients, comprising 37 men and 52 women with an average age of 75.8 ± 8.2 years were included in the study. The residents’ annual falling averages were 1.0 ± 1.5. The most significant factors were identified to be predicted muscle mass, skeletal muscle index, whole body bioimpedance, dominant arm muscle strength, dominant arm bioimpedance, and free fat mass. Conclusions: The mini mental test, geriatric depression scale and lawton-brody scale combined with the handgrip, 6-meters walking, and bioimpedance tests are favorable for detecting the risk of falls and recurrent falls in vulnerable elderly nursing home residents. PMID:27652361

  11. Alcohol demand and risk preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

    2008-12-01

    Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

  12. The risks from radon in homes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duggan, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    A report has been proposed by a Working group of the Institute of Radiation Protection on the risks from radon in homes. The report includes a historical perspective, properties and behavior of radon and its daughters, measurement of radon exposure in UK homes, remedial action, quantification of the risk and lifetime risks from other causes. (UK)

  13. Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, A.; Bots, M.L.; Rutten, F.H.; den Ruijter, H.M.; Numans, M.E.; Vaartjes, I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim: To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a

  14. Risk measurement for oil and gas exploration: the marriage of geological and financial techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, T.

    2002-09-01

    A method is presented for fully risking projects, such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value of an exploration project overstates the 'value', because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation. if the expected value is calculable, then the risk-adjusted value (RAV) can also be calculated. The RAV depends additionally upon the size of the exploration budget, compared with the project, and also upon the 'price of risk'. That price is incorporated from the finance literature. The technique permits answering three related questions: 1) the risk-adjusted rate of return for a given project; 2) the risk-adjusted value of that project; or 3) the risk premium appropriate for a particular project, given the size of the firm's exploration budget. (author)

  15. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murani, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  16. Improving risk assessments for manufactured gas plant soils by measuring PAH availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroo, Hans F; Nakles, David V; Kreitinger, Joseph P; Loehr, Raymond C; Hawthorne, Steven B; Luthy, Richard G; Holman, Hoi-Ying; LaPierre, Adrienne

    2005-07-01

    Remediation of soils at oil-gas manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites is driven primarily by the human health risks posed by the carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), that are associated with lampblack residues. Although PAHs on lampblack are tightly sorbed, risk assessments do not account for this reduced availability. A multi-investigator study of 7 oil-gas MGP site soil samples demonstrated that the dermal and ingestion absorption factors are far lower than current default assumptions used in risk assessments. Using these sample-specific absorption factors in standard risk assessment equations increased risk-based cleanup levels by a factor of 72 on average (with a range from 23 to 142 times the default level). The rapidly released fraction of the BaP in each sample, as measured by supercritical fluid extraction, was closely correlated (r2 = 0.96) to these calculated cleanup levels. The weight of evidence developed during this research indicates that the risks posed by PAHs on lampblack are far less than assumed when using default absorption factors and that a tiered evaluation protocol employing chemical analyses, chemical release data, and in vitro bioassays can be used to establish more realistic site-specific criteria.

  17. A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcez, Thalles Vitelli; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM’s attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory. - Highlights: • The paper proposes a risk measure of underground vaults for manhole events. • It makes risk analysis in underground electrical distribution networks. • It makes more than show a risk ranking of underground vaults. • It can show to the DM how

  18. Are cultural values and beliefs included in U.S. based HIV interventions?

    OpenAIRE

    Wyatt, GE; Williams, JK; Gupta, A; Malebranche, D

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To determine the extent to which current United States based human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) prevention and risk reduction interventions address and include aspects of cultural beliefs in definitions, curricula, measures and related theories that may contradict current safer sex messages. Method: A comprehensive literature review was conducted to determine which published human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (H...

  19. Test-retest assessment of functional near-infrared spectroscopy to measure risk decision making in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Lin, Zijing; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

    2013-03-01

    Investigation of the reliability and reproducibility of the hemodynamic response is important for interpretation and understanding of the results of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). It measures optical signals absorbed by the brain tissue and reflects the neuronal activities indirectly. Here we described an fNIRS study measured in the prefrontal region (Brodman area 9, 10, part of 46)to examine the risk decision-making behavior in nine young adults. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is widely used to test the level of risk taking ability in the field of psychology. BART was a protocol utilized in this study to evoke a risk-taking environment with a gambling-like balloon game in each subject. Specifically, we recorded the brain oxygenated-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxygenated-hemoglobin (HHb) changes during the two repeated measurements within a time interval of 3 weeks. The results demonstrate that the changes in HbO2 amplitudes have high reliability at the group level, and that the spatial patterns of the tomographic images have high reproducibility in size and a moderate degree of overlap. Overall, this study confirms that the hemodynamic response to risk decision-making (i.e., BART) seen by fNIRS is highly reliable and reproducible.

  20. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2018-01-01

    With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  1. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Gyawu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%, restaurants (19.7%, fast food restaurants (16.4%, small supermarkets (8.2%, and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %, respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p < 0.0001 higher health scores than the other store types. A few health promotion messages were highly visible or obscurely positioned in some RFOs. The Alabama Black Belt food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices.

  2. "Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

    2013-02-01

    Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

  3. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The organization must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is...-based capital ratio numerator. Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes... techniques adequately measure associated market risk. 10 An organization's internal model may use any...

  5. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

  6. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  7. The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

    2012-06-01

    Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

  8. Estimating central tendency from a single spot measure: A closed-form solution for lognormally distributed biomarker data for risk assessment at the individual level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleil, Joachim D; Sobus, Jon R

    2016-01-01

    Exposure-based risk assessment employs large cross-sectional data sets of environmental and biomarker measurements to predict population statistics for adverse health outcomes. The underlying assumption is that long-term (many years) latency health problems including cancer, autoimmune and cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and asthma are triggered by lifetime exposures to environmental stressors that interact with the genome. The aim of this study was to develop a specific predictive method that provides the statistical parameters for chronic exposure at the individual level based upon a single spot measurement and knowledge of global summary statistics as derived from large data sets. This is a profound shift in exposure and health statistics in that it begins to answer the question "How large is my personal risk?" rather than just providing an overall population-based estimate. This approach also holds value for interpreting exposure-based risks for small groups of individuals within a community in comparison to random individuals from the general population.

  9. Retrospective cohort study shows that the risks for retinopathy of prematurity included birth age and weight, medical conditions and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Aliaa A; Gomaa, Nancy A S; Awadein, Ahmed R; Al-Hayouti, Huda H; Hegazy, Ahmed I

    2017-12-01

    This study described the characteristics and risk factors of neonates who developed retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) and severe treatable ROP in two Egyptian neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). This retrospective cohort study comprised 108 preterm neonates who were screened for ROP after being admitted to the two NICUs run by Cairo University Hospital from June 2014 to May 2015. Patients were examined using digital fundus photography and indirect ophthalmoscopy was performed if ROP was detected. Retinopathy of prematurity occurred in 75 patients. Late-onset sepsis, ventilation and hypercapnia were independently associated with ROP. Patients who developed severe treatable ROP had a younger gestational age (GA) than patients who did not develop ROP or developed mild or moderate ROP (29 weeks, range 27-33 weeks versus 32 weeks, range 28-36 weeks, p = 0.002) and a lower birthweight (1200 g, range 980-1590 g versus 1460 g, range 770-2475 g, p = 0.029). The risk factors associated with severe treatable ROP included the duration of admission, the duration of incubator oxygen, late-onset sepsis, intraventricular haemorrhage, total parenteral nutrition and the duration of caffeine citrate therapy. This study showed that the risks for ROP were wide-ranging and included GA and weight, medical conditions and treatment. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks: Risk-Based Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... reverse within the year. Such projections should include the estimated effect of tax-planning strategies... charges for certain market risks into the risk-based capital ratio. When calculating their risk-based... supplemental rules to determine qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market...

  11. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

  12. Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

    2009-09-01

    We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

  13. [Risk assessment for fetal trisomy 21 based on nuchal translucency measurement and biochemical screening at 11-13 weeks.].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harðardóttir, H

    2001-05-01

    Screening for fetal aneuploidy during the first trimester using fetal nuchal translucency measurement and maternal serum free ss-hCG (ss-human chorionic gonadotropin) and PAPP-A (pregnancy associated plasma protein A) is commonly practised. An approach with a one stop clinic for assessment of risk for fetal anomalies, where pre-test counseling, blood test, ultrasound and post-test counseling is offered in one hour visit is described. Based on maternal age, biochemistry and fetal nuchal translucency measurement an estimated risk for fetal trisomies 13,18 and 21 is calculated. The main benefit of this approach in screening for fetal aneuploidy is the short turnaround time, with immediate results and a low screen positive rate. This approach leads to diagnosis of the majority (95%) of fetal aneuploidy cases. If screening is positive a diagnostic test is available with chorionic villous sampling or amniocentesis. In Iceland, fetal karyotyping is offered to women 35 years and older and performed during the second trimester, but by using this approach prenatal diagnosis can be moved to the first trimester and also offered to women of all ages. A screening approach with a series of steps from 10-15 weeks, including maternal blood test at 10 and again at 15 weeks, as well as an ultrasound and nuchal translucency measurement at 11-13 weeks, with integrated results at 15+ weeks has been proposed. This method offers even lower screen positive rate (1%) while detection rates of fetal aneuploides are high (>90%) but it requires four visits instead of one and the prolonged approach is likely to cause excess anxiety for the parents to be. If all women are to be offered prenatal sreening in the first trimester the structure of prenatal care in Iceland needs some modifications including scheduling the first prenatal visit at 8-10 weeks and teaching healthcare providers counseling regarding prenatal testing.

  14. Measures of Adiposity Are Associated with Increased Risk of Peptic Ulcer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boylan, Matthew R.; Khalili, Hamed; Huang, Edward S.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2014-01-01

    Background & Aims Obesity is associated with systemic inflammation, alterations in the intestinal microbiome, and decreased epithelial integrity. The association between obesity and peptic ulcer has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of 47,120 men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (mean age of 54 years at baseline). Biennially, we updated information on body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) or aspirin. Self-reported waist and hip measurements were validated among a subsample of participants. Self-reported cases of gastric and duodenal ulcers were confirmed by medical record review. Helicobacter pylori status was determined from endoscopic biopsies, serum antibody measurements, and/or stool antigen assays documented in the medical record. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We documented 272 gastric and 320 duodenal ulcers over 24 years of follow up. The multivariate-adjusted HR for gastric ulcer was 1.83 (95% CI, 1.20–2.78; Ptrendulcer was not associated with BMI (Ptrend=.24) or WHR (Ptrend=.68). In secondary analyses, increased BMI and WHR were each associated with increased risk of H pylori-negative, but not H pylori-positive, ulcers. The effect of BMI on ulcer risk did not change with use of aspirin or NSAID, alcohol consumption, physical activity, or smoking. Conclusions In a large prospective cohort of male health professionals, central and total obesity were associated with increased risk of peptic ulcer—particularly gastric and H pylori-negative ulcers. PMID:24681076

  15. Risk management of power supply in open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinta-Runsala, E.; Kiviniemi, J.

    1999-12-01

    The open electricity market has increased the need of risk management in electric utilities. In this publication the concepts of risk assessment and measures mostly concentrating on market risks for power supply companies are reported. An essential past of the risk management includes the electricity derivates and trade

  16. Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Benjamin M.; Takami, Marcelo; Rocha, Jadson M. C.; Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Souza, Sergio R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Recent literature has focused on the study of systemic risk in complex networks. It is clear now, after the crisis of 2008, that the aggregate behavior of the interaction among agents is not straightforward and it is very difficult to predict. Contributing to this debate, this paper shows that the directed clustering coefficient may be used as a measure of systemic risk in complex networks. Furthermore, using data from the Brazilian interbank network, we show that the directed clustering coefficient is negatively correlated with domestic interest rates.

  17. Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure

  18. Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering, Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure.

  19. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo B Brakenhoff

    Full Text Available With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data', measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate. For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  20. Measuring Outcomes in Adult Weight Loss Studies That Include Diet and Physical Activity: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A. Millstein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Measuring success of obesity interventions is critical. Several methods measure weight loss outcomes but there is no consensus on best practices. This systematic review evaluates relevant outcomes (weight loss, BMI, % body fat, and fat mass to determine which might be the best indicator(s of success. Methods. Eligible articles described adult weight loss interventions that included diet and physical activity and a measure of weight or BMI change and body composition change. Results. 28 full-text articles met inclusion criteria. Subjects, settings, intervention lengths, and intensities varied. All studies measured body weight (−2.9 to −17.3 kg, 9 studies measured BMI (−1.1 to −5.1 kg/m2, 20 studies measured % body fat (−0.7 to −10.2%, and 22 studies measured fat mass (−0.9 to −14.9 kg. All studies found agreement between weight or BMI and body fat mass or body fat % decreases, though there were discrepancies in degree of significance between measures. Conclusions. Nearly all weight or BMI and body composition measures agreed. Since body fat is the most metabolically harmful tissue type, it may be a more meaningful measure of health change. Future studies should consider primarily measuring % body fat, rather than or in addition to weight or BMI.

  1. Measurement of condom use as a risk factor for HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaymaker, Emma; Zaba, Basia

    2003-11-01

    Correct and consistent condom use can prevent susceptible people from acquiring HIV infection. However, in many countries repeated cross-sectional studies reveal a trend of increasing prevalence of HIV infection alongside an increase in reported condom use. Changes in sexual behaviour that reduce the number of new HIV infections will not become apparent through changes in HIV prevalence until some time after the behaviour change takes place. Limitations in the data used to assess condom use may also explain the concurrent increases in condom use and HIV prevalence. One common indicator of condom use, the UNGASS indicator (condom use at last higher risk sex of those aged 15-24), has been chosen to illustrate how changes in the proportion of people who report using condoms do not always explain changes in the size of the group who had high risk behaviour. Indicators based on the proportion of the whole population who have sex without using a condom would be better measures of the size of the group at highest risk of HIV infection.

  2. Dimensions and measurement of crowdfunding supporters’ perceived risk%众筹模式支持者感知风险维度研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨艳军; 康冬雪

    2016-01-01

    Based on the theory of perceived risk, the present study attempts to define the concept of crowdfunding pattern supporters’ perceived risks and its dimensions. Taking in-depth interviews with crowdfunding supporters into consideration, the study also tentatively develops a measurement scale of these supporters’ perceived risks, which includes 22 items in 7 dimensions. By undertaking an exploratory and confirmatory analysis of the factors from 290 questionaires of crowdfunding pattern supporters, the study tests the reliability and validity of the measurement scal. Findings show that the dimensions of crowdfunding pattern supporters’ perceived risks comprise product risk, delivery risk, after-sale risk, project initiator risk, privacy risk, crowdfuding platform risk and crowdfunding website risk. Comparing crowdfunding pattern with the traditional e-commerce pattern, crowdfunding pattern supporters hardly need to percieve social risks and psychological risks. Besides, there arise new advances and drastic changes in the measuring items of the dimensions of perceived risks.%基于感知风险理论,对众筹模式支持者感知风险及其维度进行了界定,并结合对众筹模式支持者的深度访谈,探索性地开发了一个7维度、22题项的众筹模式支持者感知风险测量量表。通过对290份调查数据进行探索性和验证性因子分析,检验了量表的信度和效度。研究结果表明:众筹模式支持者感知风险维度构成包括产品功能风险、产品交付风险、售后风险、项目发起人风险、个人隐私风险、众筹平台风险以及众筹网站功能风险;与传统电商模式相比,众筹模式支持者几乎不存在感知社会风险和感知心理风险,且感知风险维度的测量题项有了新的发展和显著变化。

  3. Measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures to assess physical function in young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroman, S L; Roos, Ewa M.; Bennell, K L

    2014-01-01

    To systematically appraise the evidence on measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures to assess physical function in young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA).......To systematically appraise the evidence on measurement properties of performance-based outcome measures to assess physical function in young and middle-aged people known to be at high risk of hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA)....

  4. Relative risk measure suitable for comparison of design alternatives of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferjencik, M.

    1997-01-01

    Accessible reports on risk assessment of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facilities presume that only releases of radioactive substances represent undesired consequences. However, only certain part of the undesired consequences is represented by them. Many other events are connected with safety and are able to cause losses to the operating company. The following two presumptions are pronounced based on this. 1. Any event causing a disturbance of a safety function of the storage facility is an incident event. 2. Any disturbance of a safety function is an undesired consequence. If the facility safety functions are identified and if the severity of their disturbances is quantified, then it is possible to combine consequence severity quantifications and event frequencies into a risk measure. Construction and application of such a risk measure is described in this paper. The measure is shown to be a tool suitable for comparison of interim storage technology design alternatives. (author)

  5. Household Portfolios and Risk Bearing over Age and Time

    OpenAIRE

    Alessandro Bucciol; Raffaele Miniaci

    2011-01-01

    We exploit the US Survey of Consumer Finances from 1998 to 2007 to study households’ portfolio risk bearing. We compare four alternative measures of risk, two based on a financial portfolio and two based on a broader portfolio also including – as illiquid assets – human capital, real estate, business wealth and related debt. The measures provide a different ranking of household risk bearing, but they consistently show that risk bearing fell after 2001, and it positively correlates with wealth...

  6. Measuring growth and obesity across childhood and adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, H David

    2014-05-01

    The dramatic rise in childhood obesity has driven the demand for tools better able to assess and define obesity and risk for related co-morbidities. In addition, the early life origins of non-communicable diseases including type 2 diabetes are associated with subtle alterations in growth and body composition, including total and regional body fatness, limb/trunk length and skeletal muscle mass (SMM). Consequently improved tools based on national reference data, which capture these body components must be developed as the limitations of BMI as a measure of overweight and obesity and associated cardiometabolic risk are now recognised. Furthermore, waist circumference as a measure of abdominal fatness in children is now endorsed by the International Diabetes Federation and National Institute for Clinical and Health Excellence for diagnostic and monitoring purposes. The present paper aims to review the research on growth-related variations in body composition and proportions, together with how national references for percentage body fat, SMM and leg/trunk length have been developed. Where collection of these measures is not possible, alternative proxy measures including thigh and hip circumferences are suggested. Finally, body ratios including the waist:height and muscle:fat ratios are highlighted as potential measures of cardiometabolic disease risk. In conclusion, a collection of national references for individual body measures have been produced against which children and youths can be assessed. Collectively, they have the capacity to build a better picture of an individual's phenotype, which represents their risk for cardiometabolic disease beyond that of the capability of BMI.

  7. Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jebens, Martin; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    Flood hazards in coastal regions induce risks toward lives, property, economy and the environment. In need of sustainable and holistic actions to reduce risks, these should include innovative Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures. While differing on important...... flood events to exert pressure on the national government, and in a top-down approach the government could identify the needs among the civil society to include these in the decision-making process.......-structural measures is hampered by lack in coordination that should be improved to agree e.g. on an acceptable risk definition and to avoid duplicating efforts. To advance awareness and coordination between DRM and CCA and to improve measures, a bottom-up approach could by initiated by civil society using recent...

  8. The ability of clinical balance measures to identify falls risk in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Gillian; Comber, Laura; Galvin, Rose; Coote, Susan

    2018-05-01

    To determine the ability of clinical measures of balance to distinguish fallers from non-fallers and to determine their predictive validity in identifying those at risk of falls. AMED, CINAHL, Medline, Scopus, PubMed Central and Google Scholar. First search: July 2015. Final search: October 2017. Inclusion criteria were studies of adults with a definite multiple sclerosis diagnosis, a clinical balance assessment and method of falls recording. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Study quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 scale and the modified Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Statistical analysis was conducted for the cross-sectional studies using Review Manager 5. The mean difference with 95% confidence interval in balance outcomes between fallers and non-fallers was used as the mode of analysis. We included 33 studies (19 cross-sectional, 5 randomised controlled trials, 9 prospective) with a total of 3901 participants, of which 1917 (49%) were classified as fallers. The balance measures most commonly reported were the Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go and Falls Efficacy Scale International. Meta-analysis demonstrated fallers perform significantly worse than non-fallers on all measures analysed except the Timed Up and Go Cognitive ( p Balance Confidence Scale had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value (0.92), but without reporting corresponding measures of clinical utility. Clinical measures of balance differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers but have poor predictive ability for falls risk in people with multiple sclerosis.

  9. Applications of Capstone depleted uranium aerosol risk data to military combat risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daxon, Eric G; Parkhurst, Mary Ann; Melanson, Mark A; Roszell, Laurie E

    2009-03-01

    Risks to personnel engaged in military operations include not only the threat of enemy firepower but also risks from exposure to other hazards such as radiation. Combatant commanders of the U.S. Army carefully weigh risks of casualties before implementing battlefield actions using an established paradigm that takes these risks into consideration. As a result of the inclusion of depleted uranium (DU) anti-armor ammunition in the conventional (non-nuclear) weapons arsenal, the potential for exposure to DU aerosols and its associated chemical and radiological effects becomes an element of the commanders' risk assessment. The Capstone DU Aerosol Study measured the range of likely DU oxide aerosol concentrations created inside a combat vehicle perforated with a DU munition, and the Capstone Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) estimated the associated doses and calculated risks. This paper focuses on the development of a scientific approach to adapt the risks from DU's non-uniform dose distribution within the body using the current U.S. Department of Defense radiation risk management approach. The approach developed equates the Radiation Exposure Status categories to the estimated radiological risks of DU and makes use of the Capstone-developed Renal Effects Group as a measure of chemical risk from DU intake. Recommendations are provided for modifying Army guidance and policy in order to better encompass the potential risks from DU aerosol inhalation during military operations.

  10. Applications of Capstone Depleted Uranium Aerosol Risk Data to Military Combat Risk Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daxon, Eric G.; Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Melanson, Mark A.; Roszell, Laurie E.

    2009-01-01

    Risks to personnel engaged in military operations include not only the threat of enemy firepower but also risks from exposure to other hazards such as radiation. Combatant commanders of the U. S. Army carefully weigh risks of casualties before implementing battlefield actions using an established paradigm that take these risks into consideration. As a result of the inclusion of depleted uranium (DU) anti-armor ammunition in the conventional (non-nuclear) weapons arsenal, the potential for exposure to DU aerosols and its associated chemical and radiological effects becomes an element of the commanders risk assessment. The Capstone DU Aerosol Study measured the range of likely DU oxide aerosol concentrations created inside a combat vehicle perforated with a DU munition, and the Capstone Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) estimated the associated doses and calculated risks. This paper focuses on the development of a scientific approach to adapt the risks from DU's non uniform dose distribution within the body using the current U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) radiation risk management approach. The approach developed equates the Radiation Exposure Status (RES) categories to the estimated radiological risks of DU and makes use of the Capstone-developed Renal Effects Group (REG) as a measure of chemical risk from DU intake. Recommendations are provided for modifying Army guidance and policy in order to better encompass the potential risks from DU aerosol inhalation during military operations

  11. Quality assurance of in-situ-gammaspectrometry. International comparison measurement at the K-RISK-phantom 2015; Qualitaetssicherung der In-situ-Gammaspektrometrie. Internationale Vergleichsmessung an der K-RISK-Phantomwand 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haas, G.; Schupfner, R. [Regensburg Univ. (Germany). ZRN-URA-Lab.; Buss, K. [Bayerisches Landesamt fuer Umwelt, Kulmbach (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    During the last years the collimated in-situ-gammaspectrometry established itself as a powerful mean for free- release of buildings, parts of buildings, walls and ground area. To accomplish a suitable possibility for quality assurance of in-situ-gammaspectrometry, the K-RISK-phantom wall was developed and built at the University of Regensburg on the authority of the state office for environmental protection, Kulmbach. The K-RISK-phantom is a large surface calibration wall made of concrete which allows simulating different realistic three-dimensional wall contaminations. Contrary to many other calibration phantoms the K-RISK phantom permits completely reversible three-dimensional activity distributions. The comparison measurement is a useful tool for quality assurance and allows the participants to review their measurements relating to measurement, calibration or analysis. 19 institutions (industry, surveyor, authorities) from Germany, Austria and Switzerland participated at the comparison measurement.

  12. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  13. Risk measures and their applications in asset management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); B. Kaynar; N. N. Nilay (Nilay)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral approaches exist to model decision making under risk, where risk can be broadly defined as the effect of variability of random outcomes. One of the main approaches in the practice of decision making under risk uses mean-risk models; one such well-known is the classical Markowitz

  14. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  15. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

  16. Importance measures and genetic algorithms for designing a risk-informed optimally balanced system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of importance measures for the risk-informed optimization of system design and management. An optimization approach is presented in which the information provided by the importance measures is incorporated in the formulation of a multi-objective optimization problem to drive the design towards a solution which, besides being optimal from the points of view of economics and safety, is also 'balanced' in the sense that all components have similar importance values. The approach allows identifying design systems without bottlenecks or unnecessarily high-performing components and with test/maintenance activities calibrated according to the components' importance ranking. The approach is tested at first against a multi-state system design optimization problem in which off-the-shelf components have to be properly allocated. Then, the more realistic problem of risk-informed optimization of the technical specifications of a safety system of a nuclear power plant is addressed

  17. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    -quartile dense breast volume had a BCSC 5-year risk of 2.5%, whereas women with dense breasts and first-quartile dense breast volume had a 5-year risk ≤ 1.8%. Risk models with automated dense breast volume combined with BI-RADS breast density may better identify women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk than risk models with either measure alone.

  18. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  19. Soil pH Errors Propagation from Measurements to Spatial Predictions - Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk Assessment Implications for Practitioners and Modelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, P. R.; Libohova, Z.; Seybold, C. A.; Wills, S. A.; Peaslee, S.; Beaudette, D.; Lindbo, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The measurement errors and spatial prediction uncertainties of soil properties in the modeling community are usually assessed against measured values when available. However, of equal importance is the assessment of errors and uncertainty impacts on cost benefit analysis and risk assessments. Soil pH was selected as one of the most commonly measured soil properties used for liming recommendations. The objective of this study was to assess the error size from different sources and their implications with respect to management decisions. Error sources include measurement methods, laboratory sources, pedotransfer functions, database transections, spatial aggregations, etc. Several databases of measured and predicted soil pH were used for this study including the United States National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database (NCSS-SCDB), the US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The distribution of errors among different sources from measurement methods to spatial aggregation showed a wide range of values. The greatest RMSE of 0.79 pH units was from spatial aggregation (SSURGO vs Kriging), while the measurement methods had the lowest RMSE of 0.06 pH units. Assuming the order of data acquisition based on the transaction distance i.e. from measurement method to spatial aggregation the RMSE increased from 0.06 to 0.8 pH units suggesting an "error propagation". This has major implications for practitioners and modeling community. Most soil liming rate recommendations are based on 0.1 pH unit increments, while the desired soil pH level increments are based on 0.4 to 0.5 pH units. Thus, even when the measured and desired target soil pH are the same most guidelines recommend 1 ton ha-1 lime, which translates in 111 ha-1 that the farmer has to factor in the cost-benefit analysis. However, this analysis need to be based on uncertainty predictions (0.5-1.0 pH units) rather than measurement errors (0.1 pH units) which would translate in 555-1,111 investment that

  20. Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasa Nie

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. Methods: All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes’ definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. Results: The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58 for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42 for a propensity score-matched set. Conclusion: In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI.

  1. Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

    2007-12-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

  2. Ventilator associated pneumonia: risk factors and preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, J L; Lobo, S; Struelens, M

    2001-11-01

    Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common nosocomial infection associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Various risk factors for VAP have been identified and include the duration of ICU stay and of mechanical ventilation, a diagnosis of trauma, and severity of illness. Knowledge of these factors can promote early diagnosis and hence treatment. In addition to simple, but very effective, basic hygiene, different preventative strategies have been suggested, and can be divided into those that aim to limit airway colonization, and those that improve host defense mechanisms. Of the former, non-invasive ventilation is effective but not always applicable or available, nursing the patient in the semi-recumbent position is also associated with a reduced incidence of VAP but carries its own problems, stress ulcer prophylaxis remains controversial, and selective digestive decontamination is probably only relevant to certain subgroups of patients. Methods to improve host defense include early nutrition. Immunostimulatory therapies, such as interferon and granulocyte colony stimulating factor, require further research to confirm their place in the prevention or management of VAP.

  3. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  4. Including ecosystem dynamics in risk assessment of radioactive waste in coastal regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.; Gilek, M.

    2000-01-01

    Radiation protection has mainly focused on assessing and minimising risks of negative effects on human health. Although some efforts have been made to estimate effects on non-human populations, modelling of radiation risks to other components of the ecosystem have often lead to more or less disappointing results. In this paper an ecosystem approach is suggested and exemplified with a preliminary 14 C model of a coastal Baltic ecosystem. Advantages with the proposed ecosystem approach are for example the possibility to detect important but previously neglected pathways to humans since the whole ecosystem is analysed. The results from the model indicate that a rather small share of hypothetical released 14 C would accumulate in biota due to large water exchange in the modelled area. However, modelled future scenarios imply opposite results, i.e. relatively high doses in biota, due to changes of the physical properties in the area that makes a larger accumulation possible. (author)

  5. Network optimization including gas lift and network parameters under subsurface uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulze-Riegert, R.; Baffoe, J.; Pajonk, O. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Badalov, H.; Huseynov, S. [Technische Univ. Clausthal, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany). ITE; Trick, M. [SPT Group, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2013-08-01

    Optimization of oil and gas field production systems poses a great challenge to field development due to complex and multiple interactions between various operational design parameters and subsurface uncertainties. Conventional analytical methods are capable of finding local optima based on single deterministic models. They are less applicable for efficiently generating alternative design scenarios in a multi-objective context. Practical implementations of robust optimization workflows integrate the evaluation of alternative design scenarios and multiple realizations of subsurface uncertainty descriptions. Production or economic performance indicators such as NPV (Net Present Value) are linked to a risk-weighted objective function definition to guide the optimization processes. This work focuses on an integrated workflow using a reservoir-network simulator coupled to an optimization framework. The work will investigate the impact of design parameters while considering the physics of the reservoir, wells, and surface facilities. Subsurface uncertainties are described by well parameters such as inflow performance. Experimental design methods are used to investigate parameter sensitivities and interactions. Optimization methods are used to find optimal design parameter combinations which improve key performance indicators of the production network system. The proposed workflow will be applied to a representative oil reservoir coupled to a network which is modelled by an integrated reservoir-network simulator. Gas-lift will be included as an explicit measure to improve production. An objective function will be formulated for the net present value of the integrated system including production revenue and facility costs. Facility and gas lift design parameters are tuned to maximize NPV. Well inflow performance uncertainties are introduced with an impact on gas lift performance. Resulting variances on NPV are identified as a risk measure for the optimized system design. A

  6. Ergonomic risk and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in the dentistry environment: an umbrella review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone De Sio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Dental practitioners are exposed to different occupational hazards during the course of their professional activity, such as physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic factors. The ergonomic hazards, caused by strained posture and prolonged repetitive movements, can induce musculoskeletal disorders. It occurs in 54–93% of dental professionals and involve the spine, shoulder and hand-wrist tract. Through a systematic review of international literature, we analyzed specific ergonomic risk factors and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in professional dental activity. Methods This systematic review is coherent with the PRISMA statement. The scientific research on the major online databases was based on the following keywords: dentist, prevention, ergonomic, dentistry, musculoskeletal, neck pain, posture, ergonomics, work and occupational. The studies included in this review focus on disorders related to ergonomics and on the most effective preventive measures to be adopted. No restrictions were applied for language or publication type. We excluded reports not related to ergonomic prevention in dentistry, reports of minor academic significance, editorial articles, individual contributions, and studies published in scientific conferences. Results Online research indicated 4188 references: PubMed (2919, Scopus (1257 e Cochrane Library (12. We excluded 3012 of these, because they were unrelated to ergonomics theme and 187 due to duplication. From the remaining 989 studies, 960 papers did not meet inclusion criteria and they were excluded. Therefore, we analyzed 29 articles, including 16 narrative reviews and 13 original article. The main risk factor for the development of musculoskeletal disorders found in our analysis is static posture adopted during work, highlighted in 87.5% of reviews and 84% of original articles. With regard to preventive measures, 75% of the reviews highlighted the importance of stretching after each

  7. Ergonomic risk and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in the dentistry environment: an umbrella review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sio, Simone; Traversini, Veronica; Rinaldo, Francesca; Colasanti, Valerio; Buomprisco, Giuseppe; Perri, Roberto; Mormone, Federica; La Torre, Giuseppe; Guerra, Fabrizio

    2018-01-01

    Dental practitioners are exposed to different occupational hazards during the course of their professional activity, such as physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic factors. The ergonomic hazards, caused by strained posture and prolonged repetitive movements, can induce musculoskeletal disorders. It occurs in 54-93% of dental professionals and involve the spine, shoulder and hand-wrist tract. Through a systematic review of international literature, we analyzed specific ergonomic risk factors and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in professional dental activity. This systematic review is coherent with the PRISMA statement. The scientific research on the major online databases was based on the following keywords: dentist, prevention, ergonomic, dentistry, musculoskeletal, neck pain, posture, ergonomics, work and occupational. The studies included in this review focus on disorders related to ergonomics and on the most effective preventive measures to be adopted. No restrictions were applied for language or publication type. We excluded reports not related to ergonomic prevention in dentistry, reports of minor academic significance, editorial articles, individual contributions, and studies published in scientific conferences. Online research indicated 4188 references: PubMed (2919), Scopus (1257) e Cochrane Library (12). We excluded 3012 of these, because they were unrelated to ergonomics theme and 187 due to duplication. From the remaining 989 studies, 960 papers did not meet inclusion criteria and they were excluded. Therefore, we analyzed 29 articles, including 16 narrative reviews and 13 original article. The main risk factor for the development of musculoskeletal disorders found in our analysis is static posture adopted during work, highlighted in 87.5% of reviews and 84% of original articles. With regard to preventive measures, 75% of the reviews highlighted the importance of stretching after each working session and at the end of the working day

  8. Risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

  9. Relationship between Anthropometric Measures and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgos, Miria Suzana [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Burgos, Leandro Tibiriçá; Camargo, Marcelo Dias [Grupo de Pesquisa em Cardiologia do Exercício HCPA/UFRGS, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Franke, Silvia Isabel Rech; Prá, Daniel [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Silva, Antônio Marcos Vargas da [Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - UFSM, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil); Borges, Tássia Silvana; Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Reckziegel, Miriam Beatris [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Reuter, Cézane Priscila, E-mail: cpreuter@hotmail.com [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil)

    2013-10-15

    Obesity has been identified as an important risk factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, other factors, combined or not with obesity, can influence cardiovascular risk and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification in pediatrics. To analyze the association between anthropometry measures and cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the determinants to changes in blood pressure (BP), and to propose a prediction equation to waist circumference (WC) in children and adolescents. We evaluated 1,950 children and adolescents, aged 7 to 18 years. Visceral fat was assessed by WC and waist hip relationship, BP and body mass index (BMI). In a randomly selected subsample of these volunteers (n = 578), total cholesterol, glucose and triglycerides levels were evaluated. WC was positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and BP (SBP r = 0.45 and DBP = 0.37; p < 0.001). Glycaemia and triglycerides showed a weak correlation with WC (r = 0.110; p = 0.008 e r = 0.201; p < 0.001, respectively). Total cholesterol did not correlate with any of the variables. Age, BMI and WC were significant predictors on the regression models for BP (p < 0.001). We propose a WC prediction equation for children and adolescents: boys: y = 17.243 + 0.316 (height in cm); girls: y = 25.197 + 0.256 (height in cm). WC is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and presents itself as a risk factor predictor of hypertension in children and adolescents. The WC prediction equation proposed by us should be tested in future studies.

  10. Relationship between Anthropometric Measures and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgos, Miria Suzana; Burgos, Leandro Tibiriçá; Camargo, Marcelo Dias; Franke, Silvia Isabel Rech; Prá, Daniel; Silva, Antônio Marcos Vargas da; Borges, Tássia Silvana; Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira; Reckziegel, Miriam Beatris; Reuter, Cézane Priscila

    2013-01-01

    Obesity has been identified as an important risk factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, other factors, combined or not with obesity, can influence cardiovascular risk and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification in pediatrics. To analyze the association between anthropometry measures and cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the determinants to changes in blood pressure (BP), and to propose a prediction equation to waist circumference (WC) in children and adolescents. We evaluated 1,950 children and adolescents, aged 7 to 18 years. Visceral fat was assessed by WC and waist hip relationship, BP and body mass index (BMI). In a randomly selected subsample of these volunteers (n = 578), total cholesterol, glucose and triglycerides levels were evaluated. WC was positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and BP (SBP r = 0.45 and DBP = 0.37; p < 0.001). Glycaemia and triglycerides showed a weak correlation with WC (r = 0.110; p = 0.008 e r = 0.201; p < 0.001, respectively). Total cholesterol did not correlate with any of the variables. Age, BMI and WC were significant predictors on the regression models for BP (p < 0.001). We propose a WC prediction equation for children and adolescents: boys: y = 17.243 + 0.316 (height in cm); girls: y = 25.197 + 0.256 (height in cm). WC is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and presents itself as a risk factor predictor of hypertension in children and adolescents. The WC prediction equation proposed by us should be tested in future studies

  11. Patient Transfers and Risk of Back Injury: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study With Technical Measurements of Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinstrup, Jonas; Madeleine, Pascal; Jakobsen, Markus Due; Jay, Kenneth; Andersen, Lars Louis

    2017-11-08

    More than one third of nurses experience musculoskeletal pain several times during a normal work week. Consistent use of assistive devices during patient transfers is associated with a lower risk of occupational back injuries and low back pain (LBP). While uncertainties exist regarding which type of assistive devices most efficiently prevent LBP, exposure assessments using technological advancements allow for quantification of muscle load and body positions during common work tasks. The main objectives of this study are (1) to quantify low back and neck/shoulder muscle load in Danish nurses during patient transfers performed with different types of assistive devices, and (2) to combine the exposure profile for each type of assistive device with fortnightly questionnaires to identify the importance of muscle load (intensity and frequency of transfers) and body position (degree of back inclination and frequency) on LBP intensity and risk of back injury during a patient transfer. A combination of technical measurements (n=50) and a prospective study design (n=2000) will be applied on a cohort of female nurses in Danish hospitals. The technical measurements will be comprised of surface electromyography and accelerometers, with the aim of quantifying muscle load and body positions during various patient transfers, including different types of assistive devices throughout a workday. The study will thereby gather measurements during real-life working conditions. The prospective cohort study will consist of questionnaires at baseline and 1-year follow-up, as well as follow-up via email every other week for one year on questions regarding the frequency of patient transfers, use of assistive devices, intensity of LBP, and back injuries related to patient transfers. The objective measurements on muscle load and body positions during patient handlings will be applied to the fortnightly replies regarding frequency of patient transfer and use of different assistive devices, in

  12. The Association Between Body Adiposity Measures, Postural Balance, Fear of Falling, and Fall Risk in Older Community-Dwelling Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, Silvia Gonçalves Ricci; Gadelha, André Bonadias; de David, Ana Cristina; Ferreira, Aparecido Pimentel; Safons, Marisete Peralta; Tiedemann, Anne; Lima, Ricardo M

    2017-12-07

    Recent investigations demonstrate an association between obesity and the propensity of older adults to fall. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body adiposity measures, postural balance, fear of falling, and risk of falls in older women. One hundred forty-seven volunteers took part in this cross-sectional study. Participants underwent body composition assessment using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and had body mass index, waist circumference (WC), and body adiposity index measured. Postural balance was assessed using a force platform, while fear of falling and risk of falls were, respectively, evaluated by the Falls Efficacy Scale-International and the QuickScreen Clinical Falls Risk Assessment. All adiposity measures were correlated to at least 1 postural stability parameter and to fear of falling (ρ= 0.163, P risk of falls (ρ= 0.325; P falling (28.04 vs 24.59; P = .002) and had a higher proportion of individuals with increased fall risk (72% vs 35%; P risk of falls in older women, which might be mediated by reduced postural balance and increased fear of falling. Among these indices, WC, an easy and low-cost assessment, demonstrated the strongest association with falls-related outcomes.

  13. Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

    1999-06-01

    Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

  14. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  15. A quality control circle process to improve implementation effect of prevention measures for high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Haixia; Li, Guohong; Xu, Cuirong; Ju, Changping; Suo, Peiheng

    2017-12-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse the influence of prevention measures on pressure injuries for high-risk patients and to establish the most appropriate methods of implementation. Nurses assessed patients using a checklist and factors influencing the prevention of a pressure injury determined by brain storming. A specific series of measures was drawn up and an estimate of risk of pressure injury determined using the Braden Scale, analysis of nursing documents, implementation of prevention measures for pressure sores and awareness of the system both before and after carrying out a quality control circle (QCC) process. The overall scores of implementation of prevention measures ranged from 74.86 ± 14.24 to 87.06 ± 17.04, a result that was statistically significant (P prevention measure scores ranged from 11.48 ± 4.18 to 13.96 ± 3.92. Differences in all of the above results are statistically significant (P prevention measures for patients who are vulnerable to pressure sores and is of practical importance to their prevention and control. © 2017 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Body composition indices and predicted cardiovascular disease risk profile among urban dwellers in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Dahlui, Maznah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  17. Body Composition Indices and Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile among Urban Dwellers in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tin Tin Su

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Results. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. Conclusions. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  18. Incorporating Social Determinants into a Groundwater Risk Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, M.; Allen, D. M.; Journeay, M.; Korteling, B.

    2009-12-01

    The remediation of polluted groundwater is often very costly, therefore water managers utilize various proactive measures, such as wellhead protection planning, to prevent contamination events. With limited available resources, it is essential to prioritize where these measures are introduced; systematic and integrated methodologies of assessing risk to groundwater can be utilized for this prioritization. To quantify the resistance of the physical system to pollution, Aquifer Vulnerability is commonly mapped for the area of interest. This information is useful for focusing monitoring efforts and identifying data gaps, but is a relative measure of contaminant risk. To more accurately assess the probability of contamination, an inventory of hazards can be integrated with intrinsic vulnerability of the physical system. This Threat indicator links land-use with chemicals and quantifies the risk based on the toxicity and environmental fate of these substances. Local knowledge of the quantity stored and likelihood of release can be utilized to further assess these threats. Both of these steps form part of an existing frameworks for assessing risk to groundwater. In this study, a groundwater risk framework is developed and tested in two study areas; Pender Island and the Lower Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Canada. Enhancements of a basic groundwater risk framework include not only incorporating points sources such as septic systems, landfills and fuel storage, but also various social determinants of risk. These social determinants include the Resistance of a community, which represents the planning and protection initiatives designed to safeguard the resource. These include items such as land-use planning that consider groundwater vulnerability and best management practices enforced by local governments. The ability to recover following an event is the Capacity of a community; indicators include the presence or absence of spill response plans, treatment systems or an

  19. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  20. Communicating risk using absolute risk reduction or prolongation of life formats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Charlotte Gry; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Larsen, Pia Veldt

    2014-01-01

    . The COMRADE questionnaire was used to measure patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction with the risk communication. RESULTS: Of the 240 patients included for analyses, 112 were allocated to POL information and 128 to ARR. Patients redeeming a statin prescription totalled six (5.4%) when...... informed using POL, and 32 (25.0%) when using ARR. The level of confidence in decision and satisfaction with risk communication did not differ between the risk formats. CONCLUSION: Patients redeemed statin prescriptions less often when their GP communicated treatment effectiveness using POL compared......BACKGROUND: It is important that patients are well-informed about risks and benefits of therapies to help them decide whether to accept medical therapy. Different numerical formats can be used in risk communication but It remains unclear how the different formats affect decisions made by real...

  1. Health effects of an increased protein intake on kidney function and colorectal cancer risk factors, including the role of animal and plant protein sources – the PREVIEW project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Grith

    intake, including the role of animal and plant protein in pre-diabetic, overweight or obese individuals on health outcomes: markers of kidney function and putative risk factors for colorectal cancer as well as insulin sensitivity and kidney function in healthy individuals. The thesis is based on PREVIEW......, especially plant protein, on insulin sensitivity and kidney function. In paper II, the aim of the study was to assess the effect after one year of a higher protein intake on kidney function, measured by in creatinine clearance. This was investigated in pre-diabetic older adults based on a sub-group of 310...... pre-diabetic individuals included in the PREVIEW RCT. We found that a higher protein intake was associated with a significant increase in urea to creatinine ratio and serum urea after one year. There were no associations between increased protein intake and creatinine clearance, estimated glomerular...

  2. Measuring Tourism Risk Impacts on Destination Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Qi Ruan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study develops and tests an integrated model of the moderated mediation of risks (man-made and natural disasters that explains the associations between the benefits of tourism and the destination image. The study also considers how tourists are influenced by natural disasters and provides empirical evidence to predict the hypothesis models. The results of a study of 635 foreign tourists indicate that the tourism risks of man-made disasters positively influence the tourists’ experienced benefits and feeling experience. Foreign tourists’ risk evaluation may have a positive effect on their benefit and feeling experience and, thus, may link to the destination image. Somewhat as expected, the moderating effect of tourist benefit is found to strengthen the relationship between feeling experience and the destination image. Alternatively, foreign tourists’ feeling experiences foster a positive link between tourism risk and destination image. The implications of the moderated mediation results are discussed.

  3. Risk factors for exposure to influenza a viruses, including subtype H5 viruses, in Thai free-grazing ducks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, A L; Kitikoon, P; Schreiner, P J; Singer, R S; Sasipreeyajan, J; Amonsin, A; Gramer, M R; Pakinsee, S; Bender, J B

    2014-08-01

    Free-grazing ducks (FGD) have been associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks and may be a viral reservoir. In July-August 2010, we assessed influenza exposure of Thai FGD and risk factors thereof. Serum from 6254 ducks was analysed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect antibodies to influenza A nucleoprotein (NP), and haemagglutinin H5 protein. Eighty-five per cent (5305 ducks) were seropositive for influenza A. Of the NP-seropositive sera tested with H5 assays (n = 1423), 553 (39%) were H5 ELISA positive and 57 (4%) suspect. Twelve per cent (74 of 610) of H5 ELISA-positive/suspect ducks had H5 titres ≥ 1 : 20 by haemagglutination inhibition. Risk factors for influenza A seropositivity include older age, poultry contact, flock visitors and older purchase age. Study flocks had H5 virus exposure as recently as March 2010, but no HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have been identified in Thailand since 2008, highlighting a need for rigorous FGD surveillance. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

    2017-12-01

    Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Differences in Measuring Market Risk in Four Subsectors of the Digital Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to estimate market risk of the four subsectors of the digital economy. The riskiest subsector is Mobile/Internet Contents & Services followed by SW&IT Services and Application Software. On the contrary, the Telecom sector is by far the safest one. These results support the hypothesis that the Digital Economy is not a homogeneous sector.

  6. Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

  7. Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

  8. Injuries in skiing and snowboarding: Epidemiology and risk factors as a basis for prevention measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ropret Robert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the subject of injury in alpine skiing and snowboarding and the aim was to define the characteristics of injuries and the risk factors as the basis for establishing preventive measures. The types of injuries and risk factors were analyzed by examining previous papers. During the last thirty years, the number of injuries has generally decreased by 50-70%. The changes were recorded in the types of injuries, and the number of certain injuries increased. It was found that there was a mutual difference in the number and structure of the injuries of skiers and snowboarders. Injuries can be classified topologically and according to risk factors. The risk factors may be manifold: the characteristics of the equipment, the characteristics of the trail and snow surface, protective equipment, age, gender, physical fitness, risky behaviours, time of day, skiing discipline, climate factors, the presence of other skiers and others. By the analysis of these factors it was concluded that there were three entities in the implementation of security measures: the state that stipulates laws (relevant ministries, owners or organizers who provide services in skiing (ski centres, ski services, ski schools, clubs and skiers and snowboarders themselves.

  9. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  10. Stochastic Optimization of Supply Chain Risk Measures –a Methodology for Improving Supply Security of Subsidized Fuel Oil in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adinda Yuanita

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for stochastic optimization of risk measures is required to solve complex problems in supply security of subsidized fuel oil in Indonesia. In order to overcome constraints in distribution of subsidized fuel in Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population in the world—more than 250,000,000 people with 66.5% of productive population, and has more than 17,000 islands with its population centered around the nation's capital only—it is necessary to have a measurable and integrated risk analysis with monitoring system for the purpose of supply security of subsidized fuel. In consideration of this complex issue, uncertainty and probability heavily affected this research. Therefore, this research did the Monte Carlo sampling-based stochastic simulation optimization with the state-of-the-art "FIRST" parameter combined with the Sensitivity Analysis to determine the priority of integrated risk mitigation handling so that the implication of the new model design from this research may give faster risk mitigation time. The results of the research identified innovative ideas of risk based audit on supply chain risk management and new FIRST (Fairness, Independence, Reliable, Sustainable, Transparent parameters on risk measures. In addition to that, the integration of risk analysis confirmed the innovative level of priority on sensitivity analysis. Moreover, the findings showed that the new risk mitigation time was 60% faster than the original risk mitigation time.

  11. The CPC Risk Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røder, Martin Andreas; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Loft, Mathias Dyrberg

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It can be challenging to predict the risk of biochemical recurrence (BR) during follow-up after radical prostatectomy (RP) in men who have undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA), even years after surgery. OBJECTIVE: To establish and validate a contemporary nomogram that predicts...... on the necessity for further follow-up. The nomogram is the first to be available as a free app. PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed an easily interpretable nomogram to evaluate the risk of prostate-specific antigen elevation (cancer recurrence) following complete removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy...... included. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time to BR was defined as the first PSA result ≥0.2 ng/ml. BR risk was computed using multiple cause-specific Cox regression including preoperative PSA, pT category, RP Gleason score (GS), and surgical margin (R) status. Death without BR...

  12. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  13. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  14. Synthetic biology and occupational risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, John; Murashov, Vladimir; Schulte, Paul

    2017-03-01

    Synthetic biology is an emerging interdisciplinary field of biotechnology that involves applying the principles of engineering and chemical design to biological systems. Biosafety professionals have done an excellent job in addressing research laboratory safety as synthetic biology and gene editing have emerged from the larger field of biotechnology. Despite these efforts, risks posed by synthetic biology are of increasing concern as research procedures scale up to industrial processes in the larger bioeconomy. A greater number and variety of workers will be exposed to commercial synthetic biology risks in the future, including risks to a variety of workers from the use of lentiviral vectors as gene transfer devices. There is a need to review and enhance current protection measures in the field of synthetic biology, whether in experimental laboratories where new advances are being researched, in health care settings where treatments using viral vectors as gene delivery systems are increasingly being used, or in the industrial bioeconomy. Enhanced worker protection measures should include increased injury and illness surveillance of the synthetic biology workforce; proactive risk assessment and management of synthetic biology products; research on the relative effectiveness of extrinsic and intrinsic biocontainment methods; specific safety guidance for synthetic biology industrial processes; determination of appropriate medical mitigation measures for lentiviral vector exposure incidents; and greater awareness and involvement in synthetic biology safety by the general occupational safety and health community as well as by government occupational safety and health research and regulatory agencies.

  15. Petroleum tax systems and risk sharing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunnevaag, K.

    1992-12-01

    We have focused on four different measures of risk, well known from the finance literature, namely sensitivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and finally probability of a negative expected net present value (NPV). While the two first measures show that the state carries most of the risk, the latter measures show the opposite result. Whether or not the project is developed on a stand-alone or on-going basis, has a crucial impact on much risk the company carries. We have also looked at the risk development as a consequence of changes in tax regime. While the two first measures of risk (sensitivity and standard deviation) show an increase in risk for the company from the pre 1987 tax regime to the 1987-1991 tax regime, and a decrease in risk as a consequence of the last change, the opposite is the case when we look at the two last measures of risk, namely coefficient of variation and probability of a negative expected NPV. The same is the conclusion for the state, except that the sign of change is the opposite that of the company. This analysis could have been extended to include a risk concept based on the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is relevant risk, or covariance risk. This model concludes that the return on any risky asset is a function of the correlation between the return on this asset and the market portfolio. In this case only the projects contribution to the portfolio risk should be accounted for. For the Norwegian state it is not unreasonable to assume that the risk contribution of a medium sized oil field to a big portfolio of fields and onshore activities only is marginal. For the national or international oil company it is somewhat less marginal, and for a company developing the field on a stand-alone basis it is substantial. 12 refs., 15 figs

  16. A large-scale measurement of electromagnetic fields near GSM base stations in Guangxi, China for risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tongning; Shao, Qing; Yang, Lei; Qi, Dianyuan; Lin, Jun; Lin, Xiaojun; Yu, Zongying

    2013-06-01

    Radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure from wireless telecommunication base station antennae can lead to debates, conflicts or litigations among the adjacent residents if inappropriately managed. This paper presents a measurement campaign for the GSM band EMF exposure in the vicinity of 827 base station sites (totally 6207 measurement points) in Guangxi, China. Measurement specifications are designed for risk communication with the residents who previously complained of over-exposure. The EMF power densities with the global positioning system coordinate at each measured point were recorded. Compliance with the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection guidelines and Chinese environmental EMF safety standards was studied. The results show that the GSM band EMF level near the base stations is very low. The measurement results and the EMF risk communication procedures positively influence public perception of the RF EMF exposure from the base stations and promote the exchange of EMF exposure-related knowledge.

  17. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and development of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients included in the Spanish ABPM registry: the CARDIORISC Event study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Sierra, Alejandro; Banegas, José R; Segura, Julián; Gorostidi, Manuel; Ruilope, Luis M

    2012-04-01

    Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to conventional BP measurement in predicting outcome, with baseline 24-h, daytime and night-time absolute values, as well as relative nocturnal decline, as powerful determinants of prognosis. We aimed to evaluate ABPM estimates on the appearance of cardiovascular events and mortality in a cohort of high-risk treated hypertensive patients. A total of 2115 treated hypertensive patients with high or very high added risk were evaluated by means of office and 24-h ABPM. Cardiovascular events and mortality were assessed after a median follow-up of 4 years. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients (12.7%) experienced a primary event (nonfatal coronary or cerebrovascular event, heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) and 114 died (45 from cardiovascular causes). In a multiple Cox regression model, and after adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk and office BP, night-time SBP predicted cardiovascular events [hazard ratio for each SD increase: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.59]. Values above 130 mmHg increased the risk by 52% in comparison to values less than 115 mmHg. In addition to clinical determinants of cardiovascular risk and conventional BP, ABPM performed during treatment adds prognostic significance on the development of cardiovascular events in high-risk hypertensive patients. Among different ABPM-derived values, night-time SBP is the most potent predictor of outcome.

  18. Sluggish cognitive tempo is associated with suicide risk in psychiatrically hospitalized children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Stephen P; Withrow, Amanda R; Stoppelbein, Laura; Luebbe, Aaron M; Fite, Paula J; Greening, Leilani

    2016-12-01

    Although identified as a significant public health concern, few studies have examined correlates of suicide risk in school-aged children. Recent studies show a relation between sluggish cognitive tempo (SCT) symptoms and a range of adverse outcomes linked to suicidal ideation, including depression, emotion dysregulation, lowered self-esteem, and peer problems/social withdrawal, yet no study to date has examined SCT in relation to suicide risk. We tested the hypothesis that SCT would be associated with suicide risk in a sample of 95 psychiatrically hospitalized children (74% male; 62% black) between the ages of 8 and 12 (M = 10.01, SD = 1.50). Parents completed measures of their child's psychiatric symptoms, including SCT and depression, as well as a measure of their own psychopathology. Children completed measures assessing loneliness and depression. Both parents and children completed measures of suicide risk. White children reported greater suicide risk than nonwhite children. After controlling for demographic characteristics, loneliness, parental psychopathology, and correlated psychiatric symptoms, including both parent- and child self-reported depressive symptoms, SCT remained uniquely associated with children's suicide risk. Results were consistent across both parent and child measures of suicide risk. This multi-informant study provides strong preliminary support for an association between SCT symptoms and suicide risk in psychiatrically hospitalized children, above and beyond loneliness, depression, and demographic characteristics. Findings are discussed in the context of the interpersonal theory of suicide. Additional studies are needed to replicate and extend these findings, with a particular need for studies that examine the cognitive processes and daydreaming content of individuals displaying elevated SCT symptomatology. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  19. Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1989-01-01

    Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

  20. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    . Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures

  1. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    . Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures.

  2. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  3. The Performance Of Alternative Interest Rate Risk Measures And Immunization Strategies Under A Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Agca, Senay

    2002-01-01

    The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model represents the latest in powerful arbitrage-free technology for modeling the term structure and managing interest rate risk. Yet risk management strategies in the form of immunization portfolios using duration, convexity, and M-square are still widely used in bond portfolio management today. This study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in the HJM manner. Using Monte Ca...

  4. The Aachen Mobility and Balance Index to measure physiological falls risk: a comparison with the Tinetti POMA Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knobe, M; Giesen, M; Plate, S; Gradl-Dietsch, G; Buecking, B; Eschbach, D; van Laack, W; Pape, H-C

    2016-10-01

    The most commonly used mobility assessments for screening risk of falls among older adults are rating scales such as the Tinetti performance oriented mobility assessment (POMA). However, its correlation with falls is not always predictable and disadvantages of the scale include difficulty to assess many of the items on a 3-point scale and poor specificity. The purpose of this study was to describe the ability of the new Aachen Mobility and Balance Index (AMBI) to discriminate between subjects with a fall history and subjects without such events in comparison to the Tinetti POMA Scale. For this prospective cohort study, 24 participants in the study group and 10 in the control group were selected from a population of patients in our hospital who had met the stringent inclusion criteria. Both groups completed the Tinetti POMA Scale (gait and balance component) and the AMBI (tandem stance, tandem walk, ten-meter-walk-test, sit-to-stand with five repetitions, 360° turns, timed-up-and-go-test and measurement of the dominant hand grip strength). A history of falls and hospitalization in the past year were evaluated retrospectively. The relationships among the mobility tests were examined with Bland-Altmananalysis. Receiver-operated characteristics curves, sensitivity and specificity were calculated. The study showed a strong negative correlation between the AMBI (17 points max., highest fall risk) and Tinetti POMA Scale (28 points max., lowest fall risk; r = -0.78, p control group. However, there were no differences in any of the mobility and balance measurements between participants with and without a fall history with equal characteristics in test comparison (AMBI vs. Tinetti POMA Scale: AUC 0.570 vs. 0.598; p = 0.762). The Tinetti POMA Scale (cut-off 5 points). The AMBI comprises mobility and balance tasks with increasing difficulty as well as a measurement of the dominant hand-grip strength. Its ability to identify fallers was comparable to the Tinetti POMA

  5. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  6. The stochastic risks of radioactive radiation - risk assessment, risk proportions, dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1990-01-01

    The latest data on the delayed injury to the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveal that the effects of radiation are more severe than was estimated in the past. However, the application of these data to small dose rate radiation exposure over longer periods of time leads to an overestimation of the actual risk. The future supersonic aviation schemes for altitudes within 20,000 m should include early personnel check-ups for assessment of the required protective measures. (orig./DG) [de

  7. Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flood hazards in coastal regions induce risks toward lives, property, economy and the environment. In need of sustainable and holistic actions to reduce risks, these should include innovative Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures. While differing on important...

  8. Beyond dual systems: A genetically-informed, latent factor model of behavioral and self-report measures related to adolescent risk-taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Paige Harden

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The dual systems model posits that adolescent risk-taking results from an imbalance between a cognitive control system and an incentive processing system. Researchers interested in understanding the development of adolescent risk-taking use a diverse array of behavioral and self-report measures to index cognitive control and incentive processing. It is currently unclear whether different measures commonly interpreted as indicators of the same psychological construct do, in fact, tap the same underlying dimension of individual differences. In a diverse sample of 810 adolescent twins and triplets (M age = 15.9 years, SD = 1.4 years from the Texas Twin Project, we investigated the factor structure of fifteen self-report and task-based measures relevant to adolescent risk-taking. These measures can be organized into four factors, which we labeled premeditation, fearlessness, cognitive dyscontrol, and reward seeking. Most behavioral measures contained large amounts of task-specific variance; however, most genetic variance in each measure was shared with other measures of the corresponding factor. Behavior genetic analyses further indicated that genetic influences on cognitive dyscontrol overlapped nearly perfectly with genetic influences on IQ (rA = −0.91. These findings underscore the limitations of using single laboratory tasks in isolation, and indicate that the study of adolescent risk taking will benefit from applying multimethod approaches.

  9. Retinol-Binding Protein 4 and Lipids Prospectively Measured During Early to Mid-Pregnancy in Relation to Preeclampsia and Preterm Birth Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendola, Pauline; Ghassabian, Akhgar; Mills, James L; Zhang, Cuilin; Tsai, Michael Y; Liu, Aiyi; Yeung, Edwina H

    2017-06-01

    Maternal retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) and lipids may relate to preeclampsia and preterm birth risk but longitudinal data are lacking. This study examines these biomarkers longitudinally during pregnancy in relation to preeclampsia and preterm birth risk. Maternal serum samples from the Calcium for Preeclampsia Prevention (CPEP) trial were analyzed at baseline: average 15 gestational weeks; mid-pregnancy: average 27 weeks; and at >34 weeks. We measured RBP4, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)). Cross-sectional logistic regression analyses estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm preeclampsia (n = 63), term preeclampsia (n = 104), and preterm delivery (n = 160) associated with RBP4 and lipids at baseline and mid-pregnancy compared with controls (n = 136). Longitudinal trajectories across pregnancy were assessed using mixed linear models with fixed effects. Adjusted models included clinical and demographic factors. RBP4 concentrations at baseline and mid-pregnancy were associated with a 4- to 8-fold increase in preterm preeclampsia risk but were not associated with term preeclampsia. RBP4 measured mid-pregnancy was also associated with preterm birth (OR = 6.67, 95% CI: 1.65, 26.84). Higher triglyceride concentrations in mid-pregnancy were associated with a 2- to 4-fold increased risk for both preeclampsia and preterm birth. Longitudinal models demonstrate that both preterm preeclampsia and preterm birth cases had elevated RBP4 throughout gestation. Elevated RBP4 is detectable early in pregnancy and its strong relation with preterm preeclampsia merits further investigation and confirmation to evaluate its potential use as a predictor, particularly among high-risk women. © Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of American Journal of Hypertension Ltd 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employees(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  10. The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapicka, Jiri

    2015-04-01

    In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas

  11. A large-scale measurement of electromagnetic fields near GSM base stations in Guangxi, China for risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, T.; Shao, Q.; Yang, L.; Qi, D.; Lin, J.; Lin, X.; Yu, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure from wireless telecommunication base station antennae can lead to debates, conflicts or litigations among the adjacent residents if inappropriately managed. This paper presents a measurement campaign for the GSM band EMF exposure in the vicinity of 827 base station sites (totally 6207 measurement points) in Guangxi, China. Measurement specifications are designed for risk communication with the residents who previously complained of over-exposure. The EMF power densities with the global positioning system coordinate at each measured point were recorded. Compliance with the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection guidelines and Chinese environmental EMF safety standards was studied. The results show that the GSM band EMF level near the base stations is very low. The measurement results and the EMF risk communication procedures positively influence public perception of the RF EMF exposure from the base stations and promote the exchange of EMF exposure-related knowledge. (authors)

  12. Objective vs. self-reported physical activity and sedentary time: effects of measurement method on relationships with risk biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A Celis-Morales

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Imprecise measurement of physical activity variables might attenuate estimates of the beneficial effects of activity on health-related outcomes. We aimed to compare the cardiometabolic risk factor dose-response relationships for physical activity and sedentary behaviour between accelerometer- and questionnaire-based activity measures. METHODS: Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were assessed in 317 adults by 7-day accelerometry and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ. Fasting blood was taken to determine insulin, glucose, triglyceride and total, LDL and HDL cholesterol concentrations and homeostasis model-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA(IR. Waist circumference, BMI, body fat percentage and blood pressure were also measured. RESULTS: For both accelerometer-derived sedentary time (50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived measure (p<0.0001 for both interactions. The relationships for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA and risk factors were less strong than those observed for sedentary behaviours, but significant negative relationships were observed for both accelerometer and IPAQ MVPA measures with glucose, and insulin and HOMA(IR values (all p<0.05. For accelerometer-derived MVPA only, additional negative relationships were seen with triglyceride, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol concentrations, BMI, waist circumference and percentage body fat, and a positive relationship was evident with HDL cholesterol (p = 0.0002. Regression coefficients for HOMA(IR, insulin and triglyceride were 43-50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived MVPA measure (all p≤0.01. CONCLUSION: Using the IPAQ to determine sitting time and MVPA reveals some, but not all, relationships between these activity measures and metabolic and vascular disease risk factors. Using this self-report method to quantify activity can therefore underestimate the strength of some

  13. DNA methylation changes measured in pre‐diagnostic peripheral blood samples are associated with smoking and lung cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baglietto, Laura; Ponzi, Erica; Haycock, Philip; Hodge, Allison; Bianca Assumma, Manuela; Jung, Chol‐Hee; Chung, Jessica; Fasanelli, Francesca; Guida, Florence; Campanella, Gianluca; Chadeau‐Hyam, Marc; Grankvist, Kjell; Johansson, Mikael; Ala, Ugo; Provero, Paolo; Wong, Ee Ming; Joo, Jihoon; English, Dallas R.; Kazmi, Nabila; Lund, Eiliv; Faltus, Christian; Kaaks, Rudolf; Risch, Angela; Barrdahl, Myrto; Sandanger, Torkjel M.; Southey, Melissa C.; Giles, Graham G.; Johansson, Mattias; Vineis, Paolo; Polidoro, Silvia; Relton, Caroline L.

    2016-01-01

    DNA methylation changes are associated with cigarette smoking. We used the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array to determine whether methylation in DNA from pre‐diagnostic, peripheral blood samples is associated with lung cancer risk. We used a case‐control study nested within the EPIC‐Italy cohort and a study within the MCCS cohort as discovery sets (a total of 552 case‐control pairs). We validated the top signals in 429 case‐control pairs from another 3 studies. We identified six CpGs for which hypomethylation was associated with lung cancer risk: cg05575921 in the AHRR gene (p‐valuepooled = 4 × 10−17), cg03636183 in the F2RL3 gene (p‐valuepooled = 2 × 10 − 13), cg21566642 and cg05951221 in 2q37.1 (p‐valuepooled = 7 × 10−16 and 1 × 10−11 respectively), cg06126421 in 6p21.33 (p‐valuepooled = 2 × 10−15) and cg23387569 in 12q14.1 (p‐valuepooled = 5 × 10−7). For cg05951221 and cg23387569 the strength of association was virtually identical in never and current smokers. For all these CpGs except for cg23387569, the methylation levels were different across smoking categories in controls (p‐valuesheterogeneity ≤ 1.8 x10 − 7), were lowest for current smokers and increased with time since quitting for former smokers. We observed a gain in discrimination between cases and controls measured by the area under the ROC curve of at least 8% (p‐values ≥ 0.003) in former smokers by adding methylation at the 6 CpGs into risk prediction models including smoking status and number of pack‐years. Our findings provide convincing evidence that smoking and possibly other factors lead to DNA methylation changes measurable in peripheral blood that may improve prediction of lung cancer risk. PMID:27632354

  14. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  15. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

  16. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test...... the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin...... Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high...

  17. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

  18. Approving the ISDWIR Method of Risk Measurement in Making Risk Management Decision || Aprobación del método de medición del riesgo SIIPDR en el manejo de asunción de riesgos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Integral Sum of Diff erential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matrices. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good e ffects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also compared with other risk measurement methods. || Este artículo está dedicado a la gestión del riesgo y a los métodos de medición de riesgos. El autor considera diferentes métodos de medición de riesgo y propone el método de la Suma Integral de Índices Ponderados Diferenciales de Riesgos (o método SIIPDR. Dicho método se basa en las matrices de riesgo empresarial dinámico. Dichas matrices describen los cambios de los valores de riesgo corporativos en el tiempo. El método ayuda a elegir la decisión de gestión del riesgo que tiene un buen efecto sobre los valores de riesgos corporativos. También se compara el método SIIPDR con otros métodos de medición del riesgo.

  19. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

    1993-10-01

    The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

  1. Risk Factors for Pressure Ulcers Including Suspected Deep Tissue Injury in Nursing Home Facility Residents: Analysis of National Minimum Data Set 3.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Hyochol; Cowan, Linda; Garvan, Cynthia; Lyon, Debra; Stechmiller, Joyce

    2016-04-01

    To provide information on risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home residents in the United States. This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Examine the literature related to risk factors for the development of PrUs.2. Compare risk factors associated with the prevalence of PrUs and sDTI from the revised Minimum Data Set 3.0 2012 using a modified Defloor's conceptual model of PrUs as a theoretical framework. This study aims to characterize and compare risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home (NH) residents in the United States. Secondary analysis of the 2012 Minimum Data Set (MDS 3.0). Medicare- or Medicaid-certified NHs in the United States. Nursing home residents (n = 2,936,146) 18 years or older with complete PrU data, who received comprehensive assessments from January to December 2012. Pressure ulcer by stage was the outcome variable. Explanatory variables (age, gender, race and ethnicity, body mass index, skin integrity, system failure, disease, infection, mobility, and cognition) from the MDS 3.0 were aligned with the 4 elements of Defloor's conceptual model: compressive forces, shearing forces, tissue tolerance for pressure, and tissue tolerance for oxygen. Of 2,936,146 NH residents who had complete data for PrU, 89.9% had no PrU; 8.4% had a Stage 2, 3, or 4 or unstagable PrU; and 1.7% had an sDTI. The MDS variables corresponding to the 4 elements of Defloor's model were significantly predictive of both PrU and sDTI. Black residents had the highest risk of any-stage PrU, and Hispanic residents had the highest risk of sDTI. Skin integrity, system failure, infection, and disease risk factors had larger effect sizes for sDTI than for other PrU stages

  2. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  3. The association between preoperative clinical risk factors and in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yoshan Moodley

    Therefore, it is important to determine what risk factors are associated with ... Background: Current surgical management of carotid artery disease includes carotid endarterectomy (CEA). In-hospital ... medical records relating to clinical risk factors in patients, preinduction BP measurements, and in-hospital strokes and death,.

  4. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  5. Risk perception after genetic counseling in patients with increased risk of cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rantala Johanna

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Counselees are more aware of genetics and seek information, reassurance, screening and genetic testing. Risk counseling is a key component of genetic counseling process helping patients to achieve a realistic view for their own personal risk and therefore adapt to the medical, psychological and familial implications of disease and to encourage the patient to make informed choices 12. The aim of this study was to conceptualize risk perception and anxiety about cancer in individuals attending to genetic counseling. Methods The questionnaire study measured risk perception and anxiety about cancer at three time points: before and one week after initial genetic counseling and one year after completed genetic investigations. Eligibility criteria were designed to include only index patients without a previous genetic consultation in the family. A total of 215 individuals were included. Data was collected during three years period. Results Before genetic counseling all of the unaffected participants subjectively estimated their risk as higher than their objective risk. Participants with a similar risk as the population overestimated their risk most. All risk groups estimated the risk for children's/siblings to be lower than their own. The benefits of preventive surveillance program were well understood among unaffected participants. The difference in subjective risk perception before and directly after genetic counseling was statistically significantly lower in all risk groups. Difference in risk perception for children as well as for population was also statistically significant. Experienced anxiety about developing cancer in the unaffected subjects was lower after genetic counseling compared to baseline in all groups. Anxiety about cancer had clear correlation to perceived risk of cancer before and one year after genetic investigations. The affected participants overestimated their children's risk as well as risk for anyone in

  6. Risk - a symposium on the assessment and perception of risk to human health in Canada. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, J.T.; Bates, D.V.

    1983-04-01

    The central concern in this Symposium is with risk to human health and life. Health risk includes the possibility of deaths (mortality), either immediate or delayed, and less severe health effects due to injury and illness (morbidity). Risk is defined as the product of the magnitude and the probability so that where it may be expressed quantitatively it is stated in units of harm per unit time (e.g. deaths per year or deaths per year per million of population). The 15 papers presented at this conference discuss the measurement, analysis perception, and management of risk. Six papers judged to be in scope were indexed for INIS

  7. Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Scolobig

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of

  8. No psychological distress in sportsmen aged 45 years and older after cardiovascular screening, including cardiac CT: The Measuring Athlete's Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurink, M M; Braber, T L; Prakken, N H J; Doevendans, P A F M; Backx, F J G; Grobbee, D E; Rienks, R; Nathoe, H M; Bots, M L; Velthuis, B K; Mosterd, A

    2017-04-01

    Psychological distress caused by cardiovascular pre-participation screening (PPS) may be a reason not to implement a PPS program. We assessed the psychological impact of PPS, including cardiac computed tomography (CT), in 318 asymptomatic sportsmen aged ≥45 years. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was defined as a coronary artery calcium score ≥100 Agatson units and/or ≥50% luminal stenosis on contrast-enhanced cardiac CT. Psychological impact was measured with the Impact of Event Scale (IES) (seven items) on a six-point scale (grade 0-5). A sum score ≥19 indicates clinically relevant psychological distress. A Likert scale was used to assess overall experiences and impact on sports and lifestyle. A total of 275 participants (86.5% response rate, 95% CI 83-90%) with a mean age of 54.5 ± 6.4 years completed the questionnaires, 48 (17.5%, 95% CI 13-22%) of whom had CAD. The median IES score was 1 (IQR 0-2, [0-23]). IES was slightly higher in those with CAD (mean rank 175 vs. 130, p psychological distress (IES = 23). Participants reported numerous benefits, including feeling safer exercising (58.6%, 95% CI 53-65%) and positive lifestyle changes, especially in those with CAD (17.2 vs. 52.1%, p psychological distress in older sportsmen. Psychological distress should not be a reason to forego screening in sportsmen.

  9. Brine migration resulting from CO2 injection into saline aquifers – An approach to risk estimation including various levels of uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Oladyshkin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    resulting from displaced brine. Quantifying risk on the basis of numerical simulations requires consideration of different kinds of uncertainties and this study considers both, scenario uncertainty and statistical uncertainty. Addressing scenario uncertainty involves expert opinion on relevant geological......Comprehensive risk assessment is a major task for large-scale projects such as geological storage of CO2. Basic hazards are damage to the integrity of caprocks, leakage of CO2, or reduction of groundwater quality due to intrusion of fluids. This study focuses on salinization of freshwater aquifers...... for large-scale 3D models including complex physics. Therefore, we apply a model reduction based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion combined with probabilistic collocation method. It is shown that, dependent on data availability, both types of uncertainty can be equally significant. The presented study...

  10. Increased intestinal permeability, measured by serum zonulin, is associated with metabolic risk markers in overweight pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokkala, Kati; Pellonperä, Outi; Röytiö, Henna; Pussinen, Pirkko; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Laitinen, Kirsi

    2017-04-01

    Increased intestinal permeability with subsequent metabolic endotoxemia, i.e., elevated circulating levels of bacterial lipopolysaccharide, LPS, has been introduced as a novel initiator of obesity related metabolic disturbances in non-pregnant individuals. The objective was to investigate the extent to which intestinal permeability, measured by serum zonulin concentration, is related to metabolic endotoxemia and metabolic risk markers in overweight pregnant women. This was a cross-sectional study including 100 pregnant overweight women in early pregnancy. Serum zonulin was analyzed using ELISA, and markers for metabolic endotoxemia (LPS), inflammation (high-sensitive C-reactive protein and glycoprotein acetylation GlyA), glucose metabolism (fasting glucose and insulin), and lipid metabolism were measured. Higher serum zonulin concentration associated positively with LPS (P=0.02), inflammatory markers (Pzonulin quartiles). All the observed associations were confirmed (Pzonulin concentration, i.e., increased intestinal permeability, contributes to metabolic endotoxemia, systemic inflammation, and insulin resistance in overweight pregnant women. By reinforcing intestinal barrier, it may be possible to manipulate maternal metabolism during pregnancy with subsequent health benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Fundamentals of defining and evaluating technical risks and hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, G.

    1982-01-01

    This contribution is concerned with discussions of undefined judicial concepts in the area of Safety engineering from the point of view of science and technology. Concepts like risk assessments, including accident probibility predictions are discussed and condensed in the demand: ''Risk must be acceptably low.'' Acceptability of risk is and remains a question of judgement. This judgement must be based on the specific plant involved, and in the final analysis; should be made on the basis of value judgements of all concerned. Measures and criteria for the acceptability of risk have been developed over the years. They will be determined by safety-related of security maximum acceptable values as stated in the appropriate regulations, as well as through licensing, permits, etc. Experience shows that a continuous expansion, based on safety-related research that would include extensive accident analysis, is needed. Should the status of science and technology change, it could become necessary that the measures or criteria for risk assessment would have to change also. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Risk factors and control measures for the infection abatement

    Science.gov (United States)

    ASLAM, SAADIA; LATIF, MUHAMMAD SHAHZAD; DAUD, MUHAMMAD; RAHMAN, ZIA UR; TABASSUM, BUSHRA; RIAZ, MUHAMMAD SOHAIL; KHAN, ANWAR; TARIQ, MUHAMMAD; HUSNAIN, TAYYAB

    2016-01-01

    Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a vector-borne viral disease, widely distributed in different regions of the world. The fever is caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), which belongs to the Nairovirus genus and Bunyaviridae family. The virus is clustered in seven genotypes, which are Africa-1, Africa-2, Africa-3, Europe-1, Europe-2, Asia-1 and Asia-2. The virus is highly pathogenic in nature, easily transmissible and has a high case fatality rate of 10–40%. The reservoir and vector of CCHFV are the ticks of the Hyalomma genus. Therefore, the circulation of this virus depends upon the distribution of the ticks. The virus can be transmitted from tick to animal, animal to human and human to human. The major symptoms include headache, high fever, abdominal pain, myalgia, hypotension and flushed face. As the disease progresses, severe symptoms start appearing, which include petechiae, ecchymosis, epistaxis, bleeding gums and emesis. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, antigen detection, serum neutralization and isolation of the virus by cell culture are the diagnostic techniques used for this viral infection. There is no specific antiviral therapy available thus far. However, ribavirin has been approved by the World Health Organization for the treatment of CCHFV infection. Awareness campaigns regarding the risk factors and control measures can aid in reducing the spread of this disease to a greater extent, particularly in developing countries. PMID:26870327

  13. [Chemical risk in farming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

  14. The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

  15. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  16. Incremental Value of Repeated Risk Factor Measurements for Cardiovascular Disease Prediction in Middle-Aged Korean Adults: Results From the NHIS-HEALS (National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chung, Namsik; Kim, Hyeon Chang

    2017-11-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that repeatedly measured cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may have an additive predictive value compared with single measured levels. Thus, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of incorporating periodic health screening data for CVD prediction in a large nationwide cohort with periodic health screening tests. A total of 467 708 persons aged 40 to 79 years and free from CVD were randomly divided into development (70%) and validation subcohorts (30%). We developed 3 different CVD prediction models: a single measure model using single time point screening data; a longitudinal average model using average risk factor values from periodic screening data; and a longitudinal summary model using average values and the variability of risk factors. The development subcohort included 327 396 persons who had 3.2 health screenings on average and 25 765 cases of CVD over 12 years. The C statistics (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the single measure, longitudinal average, and longitudinal summary models were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.682-0.698), 0.695 (95% CI, 0.687-0.703), and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.744-0.760) in men and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.722-0.742), 0.735 (95% CI, 0.725-0.745), and 0.790 (95% CI, 0.780-0.800) in women, respectively. The net reclassification index from the single measure model to the longitudinal average model was 1.78% in men and 1.33% in women, and the index from the longitudinal average model to the longitudinal summary model was 32.71% in men and 34.98% in women. Using averages of repeatedly measured risk factor values modestly improves CVD predictability compared with single measurement values. Incorporating the average and variability information of repeated measurements can lead to great improvements in disease prediction. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02931500. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  18. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Advanced Nuclear Measurements - Sensitivity Analysis Emerging Safeguards, Problems and Proliferation Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.

    1999-01-01

    During the past year this component of the Advanced Nuclear Measurements LDRD-DR has focused on emerging safeguards problems and proliferation risk by investigating problems in two domains. The first is related to the analysis, quantification, and characterization of existing inventories of fissile materials, in particular, the minor actinides (MA) formed in the commercial fuel cycle. Understanding material forms and quantities helps identify and define future measurement problems, instrument requirements, and assists in prioritizing safeguards technology development. The second problem (dissertation research) has focused on the development of a theoretical foundation for sensor array anomaly detection. Remote and unattended monitoring or verification of safeguards activities is becoming a necessity due to domestic and international budgetary constraints. However, the ability to assess the trustworthiness of a sensor array has not been investigated. This research is developing an anomaly detection methodology to assess the sensor array

  20. Reactor risk reference document: Main report: Draft for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-02-01

    The Reactor Risk Reference Document, NUREG-1150, provides the results of major risk analyses for five different US light-water reactors (Surry, Zion, Sequoyah, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf) using state-of-the-art methods. The broad base of probabilistic risk information contained in this document is intended to provide a data base and insights to be used in a number of regulatory applications. It is anticipated that these regulatory actions will include implementation of the NRC Severe Accident Policy Statement, implementation of NRC safety goal policy, consideration of the NRC Backfit Rule, evaluation and possible revision of regulations or regulatory requirements for emergency preparedness, plant siting, and equipment qualification, and establishment of risks-oriented priorities for allocating agency resources. This report has been published in draft form. For the plants analyzed, this document describes the major factors related to internally initiated events that contribute to severe core damage, frequencies and related uncertainty ranges of severe core damage events, the major factors and severe accident phenomena that could lead to containment failure, the conditional probabilities and uncertainty ranges of early containment failure, the consequences and risks of severe accidents, including the sensitivity of these risks to factors such as evacuation or sheltering measures, comparisons of the risks with NRC safety goals, and cost and risk-reduction analyses of plant-specific measures that could reduce risk from severe accidents

  1. Lung function and functional capacity among foundry workers using effective risk control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, Rosane Andrea Bretas; Chiavegato, Luciana Dias; de Moraes, Mônica Vasconcelos; Negreiros, Alexandher; Padula, Rosimeire Simprini

    2015-01-01

    Inhaled dust in the environment can trigger specific reactions in the airways and cause various respiratory diseases. Evaluate the lung function and functional capacity of foundry workers who are exposed to metals and use effective control measures. A cross-sectional study was realized with 108 workers at a bronze foundry and machining plant and in maintenance at a private university, both in Brazil. The workers were divided into two groups: the study group exposed to metals but using risk control measues and a control group not exposed to metal work. The Medical Research Council Questionnaire on Respiratory Symptoms and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire were administered, and lung function and functional capacity were evaluated. Comparative statistics were used to identify differences in the outcome measures between the two groups. The groups had similar personal and anthropometric characteristics and time on the job. Spirometry and peak expiratory flow presented no significant differences between the groups. And there was also no statistically significant difference between groups in functional capacity as assessed by performance on the six-minute walk test. Foundry industry workers in Brazil who were exposed to metal but used risk control measures had similar lung function and functional capacity when compared to the control group who were not exposed to metal. This is a positive results and maybe related to age, time exposure and control of occupational hazards. However, these workers need to continue being monitored in longitudinal studies.

  2. Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Investigation of the Effect of Control Measures on Reduction of Risk Events in an Edible Oil Factory in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malihe Kolahdouzi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Identification of hazards is one of the first goals of risk analysis. Failure mode and effect analysis method (FMEA is universally defined as efficient procedures for finding potential failures aimed to remove or decrease the risk which is related to them. This study aimed to investigate the effect of control measures on reduction of risk events in an edible oil factory in Tehran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in an edible oil factory in Tehran, Iran. For this, a four-member team of safety engineer experts was formed. Some factory units were selected randomly. After that, in all units, probability, severity and detection probability of hazards in all processes and tasks were assessed based on FMEA method. Regarding to the RPN, some control measures were taken to reduce the risk of events. After 9 months, risk assessment was repeated; primary and secondary RPNs were compared with each other to investigate the effect of interventions. Results: The results showed that highest and lowest probability of hazard were related to installation and can production unit, respectively. The highest and lowest severity of hazard were related to tool and can production unit, respectively. There was a significant difference between the probability of hazard in can-making and filling units, before and after the interventions. There was a significant difference between the severity of hazard in can-making, filling and neutralization units, before and after the interventions. As well, total probability, severity and RPN had a significant difference in all parts of the factory before and after the interventions. Conclusions: According to the results of this study and the overall risk reduction caused by interventional measures, it can be concluded that, FMEA is a successful method for identifying hazards and risk control measures.

  4. Commentary on guidelines for radiation measurement and treatment of substances including naturally occurring radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakurai, Naoyuki; Ishiguro, Hideharu

    2007-01-01

    Study group on safety regulation on research reactors in Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) reported the guidelines of 'Guidelines on radiation measurement and treatment of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM)' on 6 February 2006. RANDEC made the website contents 'Study on use and safety of the substances including uranium or thorium', based on the contract with MEXT to make theirs contents. This paper describes the outline of the website in MEXT homepage, background and contents of NORM guidelines in order to understand easily and visually the NORM guidelines, adding in some flowcharts and figures. (author)

  5. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  6. Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

    2009-01-01

    Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

  7. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  8. Surveying perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Jessica Ka Yi; Eidsvig, Unni

    2016-04-01

    Enhanced precipitation due to climate change leads to increase in both frequency and intensity of landslides in Norway. A proactive approach to risk management is therefore required to significantly reduce the losses associated with landslides. Opinions and perceptions from practitioners on the performance of landslide risk management can provide insights on areas for improvement in the landslide risk management strategies in Norway. The Risk Management Index (RMI), proposed by Cardona et al. (2004), is a well-established method to measure perceptions of disaster management of selected actors holistically. The RMI is measured based on opinion questionnaires to technical staff, decision-makers, and stakeholders involved in all stages of risk reduction strategies. It is a composite index that considers a wide variety of strategies to manage risks, including structural and non-structural measures, acceptance strategies, disaster management, and risk transfer. The RMI method was modified to be implemented in landslide hazards and to fit with Norwegian conditions. An opinion survey was conducted in autumn 2015 to measure perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway. Perceptions were surveyed for two time periods: 2015 and 2050, and are based on national, county, and municipality levels. Based on the survey results, performance of landslide risk management at any administrative levels in Norway is perceived to improve from `significant' in 2015 to `significant' to `outstanding' in 2050. Knowledge and technology, climate, risk perceptions, and anthropogenic activities are mostly considered by respondents for their 2050 perceptions. Several aspects of landslide risk management in Norway can be improved. For example, landslide hazard evaluation and mapping should be prioritised in Norway. Upgrading, retrofitting, and reconstruction of assets may also be included in the landslide risk reduction strategies. In addition, there should be more focus on inter

  9. Decree no 90-918 of 11 october 1990 on exercising rights to information on major risks, in implementation of Section 21 of act no 87-565 of 22 july 1987 on the organisation of public safety measures, forestry protection against fires and prevention of major risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This Decree specifies the content and type of information to which persons likely to be exposed to major risks must have access, in accordance with the 1987 Act. These provisions apply in the communes for which a special action plan has been prepared. The information includes a description of the risks and their foreseeable consequences for persons, property and the environment, and a statement on the preventive measures to limit their effects. A summary record of this information is established [fr

  10. Pediatric radiation dose and risk from bone density measurements using a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damilakis, J; Solomou, G; Manios, G E; Karantanas, A

    2013-07-01

    Effective radiation doses associated with bone mineral density examinations performed on children using a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scanner were found to be comparable to doses from pencil-beam DXA devices, i.e., lower than 1 μSv. Cancer risks associated with acquisitions obtained in this study are negligible. No data were found in the literature on radiation doses and potential risks following pediatric DXA performed on GE Lunar DXA scanners. This study aimed to estimate effective doses and associated cancer risks involved in pediatric examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner. Four physical anthropomorphic phantoms representing newborn, 1-, 5-, and 10-year-old patients were employed to simulate DXA exposures. All acquisitions were carried out using the Prodigy scanner. Dose measurements were performed for spine and dual femur using the phantoms simulating the 5- and 10-year-old child. Moreover, doses associated with whole-body examinations were measured for the four phantoms used in the current study. The gender-average effective dose for spine and hip examinations were 0.65 and 0.36 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 5-year-old child and 0.93 and 0.205 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 10-year-old child. Effective doses for whole-body examinations were 0.25, 0.22, 0.19, and 0.15 μSv for the neonate, 1-, 5-, and 10-year old child, respectively. The estimated lifetime cancer risks were negligible, i.e., 0.02-0.25 per million, depending on the sex, age, and type of DXA examination. A formula is presented for the estimation of effective dose from examinations performed on GE Lunar Prodigy scanners installed in other institutions. The effective doses and potential cancer risks associated with pediatric DXA examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam scanner were found to be comparable to doses and risks reported from pencil-beam DXA devices.

  11. Legionella species colonization in cooling towers: risk factors and assessment of control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouchtouri, Varvara A; Goutziana, Georgia; Kremastinou, Jenny; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

    2010-02-01

    Cooling towers can be colonized by Legionella spp, and inhalation of aerosols generated by their operation may cause Legionnaires' disease in susceptible hosts. Environmental investigations of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks linked with cooling towers have revealed poorly maintained systems, lack of control measures, and failure of system equipment. The purpose of this study was to identify Legionella-contaminated cooling towers, identify risk factors for contamination, and assess the effectiveness of control measures. A total of 96 cooling towers of public buildings were registered and inspected, and 130 samples were collected and microbiologically tested. Microbiological test results were associated with characteristics of cooling towers, water samples, inspection results, and maintenance practices. Of the total 96 cooling towers examined, 47 (48.9%) were colonized by Legionella spp, and 22 (22.9%) required remedial action. A total of 65 samples (50.0%) were positive (> or = 500 cfu L(-1)), and 30 (23%) were heavily contaminated (> or = 10(4) cfu L(-1)). Of the 69 isolates identified, 55 strains (79.7.%) were L pneumophila. Legionella colonization was positively associated with the absence of training on Legionella control (relative risk [RR] = 1.66; P = .02), absence of regular Legionella testing (RR = 2.07: P = .002), absence of sunlight protection (RR = 1.63: P = .02), with samples in which the free residual chlorine level in the water sample was cooling towers (median, 17 years; interquartile range [IQR] =5.0 to 26.0 years) compared with noncolonized cooling towers (median age, 6 years; IQR =1.0 to 13.5 years). After the 22 legionellae-positive cooling towers were disinfected with chlorine, 2 (9%) of them remained positive for Legionella spp with a concentration > or = 1000 cfu L(-1). Cooling towers can be heavily colonized by Legionella spp and thus present a potential risk for infection. This study demonstrates the importance of a risk assessment and

  12. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX? to improve identification of high-risk fallers

    OpenAIRE

    Najafi, David A.; Dahlberg, Leif E.; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-01-01

    Background The FRAX? algorithm quantifies a patient?s 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual?s balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX? algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX? algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that ...

  13. Calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a measure of excess cancer risk following radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, K; Kai, M

    2015-01-01

    This paper has proposed that disability-adjusted life year (DALY) can be used as a measure of radiation health risk. DALY is calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). This multidimensional concept can be expressed as a risk index without a probability measure to avoid the misuse of the current radiation detriment at low doses. In this study, we calculated YLL and YLD using Japanese population data by gender. DALY for all cancers in Japan per 1 Gy per person was 0.84 year in men and 1.34 year in women. The DALY for all cancers in the Japanese baseline was 4.8 in men and 3.5 in women. When we calculated the ICRP detriment from the same data, DALYs for the cancer sites were similar to the radiation detriment in the cancer sites, excluding leukemia, breast and thyroid cancer. These results suggested that the ICRP detriment overestimate the weighting fraction of leukemia risk and underestimate the weighting fraction of breast and thyroid cancer. A big advantage over the ICRP detriment is that DALY can calculate the risk components for non-fatal diseases without the data of lethality. This study showed that DALY is a practical tool that can compare many types of diseases encountered in public health. (paper)

  14. Measurements for testing of fluoroscopic screens, including the photofluorographic units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balfanz, R.

    1986-01-01

    Image quality control measurements for fluoroscopic screens and photofluorographs have shown that both types of equipment have a long operating life, so that constancy and technical performance tests are absolutely necessary. It is recommended to conclude in-service maintenance contracts with the manufacturers. (DG) [de

  15. Objectively Measured Sedentary Time and Cardiovascular Risk Factor Control in US Hispanics/Latinos With Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xueyin; Strizich, Garrett; Hua, Simin; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Buelna, Christina; Gallo, Linda C; Gellman, Marc D; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; O'Brien, Matthew J; Stoutenberg, Mark; Wang, Tao; Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Kaplan, Robert C; Qi, Qibin

    2017-05-25

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor control is a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus management. Little is known about relationships of objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity with major CVD risk factor control in individuals with diabetes mellitus. We examined associations of objectively measured sedentary time and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity with reaching major CVD risk factor control goals among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus. This cross-sectional analysis included 1699 participants with diabetes mellitus from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of meeting the following 5 major CVD risk factor control goals: hemoglobin A 1c 40/50 mg/dL for men/women. After adjustment for covariates including moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary time was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.76 [95% CI: 1.10, 2.82]) and triglyceride control goals (OR=2.16 [1.36, 3.46]), and reaching ≥3 CVD risk factor control goals (OR=2.08 [1.34, 3.23]) (all ORs for comparisons of extreme tertiles of sedentary time). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was not associated with reaching any CVD risk factor control goals. Substituting 60-min/day of sedentary time with light-intensity physical activity was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.18 [1.04, 1.35]), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=1.17 [1.04, 1.32]), and triglyceride (OR=1.20 [1.05, 1.36]) control goals. Among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus, less sedentary time, but not moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, was associated with improved CVD risk factor control, specifically in reaching hemoglobin A 1c and triglyceride control goals. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  16. Simple anthropometric measures correlate with metabolic risk indicators as strongly as magnetic resonance imaging-measured adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherzer, Rebecca; Shen, Wei; Bacchetti, Peter; Kotler, Donald; Lewis, Cora E; Shlipak, Michael G; Heymsfield, Steven B; Grunfeld, Carl

    2008-06-01

    Studies in persons without HIV infection have compared percentage body fat (%BF) and waist circumference as markers of risk for the complications of excess adiposity, but only limited study has been conducted in HIV-infected subjects. We compared anthropometric and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based adiposity measures as correlates of metabolic complications of adiposity in HIV-infected and control subjects. The study was a cross-sectional analysis of 666 HIV-positive and 242 control subjects in the Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV Infection (FRAM) study assessing body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumferences, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), %BF, and MRI-measured regional adipose tissue. Study outcomes were 3 metabolic risk variables [homeostatic model assessment (HOMA), triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol]. Analyses were stratified by sex and HIV status and adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and HIV-related factors. In HIV-infected and control subjects, univariate associations with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL were strongest for WC, MRI-measured visceral adipose tissue, and WHR; in all cases, differences in correlation between the strongest measures for each outcome were small (r HDL, WC appeared to be the best anthropometric correlate of metabolic complications, whereas, for triglycerides, the best was WHR. Relations of simple anthropometric measures with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol are approximately as strong as MRI-measured whole-body adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects.

  17. Papers of a Canadian Institute conference : Managing energy price risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    During this conference, participants were offered an opportunity to broaden their knowledge on fundamentals and technical risk management. In particular, the presentations addressed topics such as: the assessment and evaluation of risk tolerance and risk management options within an organization; the tightening of risk management procedures and policies; the measurement and monitoring of risk portfolio and value at risk; the efficient trading of structured energy products; and the use of call and put options, collars and straddles, swaps and other energy related derivatives. The participants also benefited from the use of case studies, panels and tutorials conducted by energy buyers, sellers and risk management experts. The conference represented a forum where participants discussed strategies and tactics for pricing, hedging and trading energy risk in deregulated markets. Of the thirteen presentations included in this document, four were included in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  19. Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

  20. Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatectomy: Definitions, Risk Factors, Preventive Measures, and Management—Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman Oneil Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Resection of pancreas, in particular pancreaticoduodenectomy, is a complex procedure, commonly performed in appropriately selected patients with benign and malignant disease of the pancreas and periampullary region. Despite significant improvements in the safety and efficacy of pancreatic surgery, pancreaticoenteric anastomosis continues to be the “Achilles heel” of pancreaticoduodenectomy, due to its association with a measurable risk of leakage or failure of healing, leading to pancreatic fistula. The morbidity rate after pancreaticoduodenectomy remains high in the range of 30% to 65%, although the mortality has significantly dropped to below 5%. Most of these complications are related to pancreatic fistula, with serious complications of intra-abdominal abscess, postoperative bleeding, and multiorgan failure. Several pharmacological and technical interventions have been suggested to decrease the pancreatic fistula rate, but the results have been controversial. This paper considers definition and classification of pancreatic fistula, risk factors, and preventive approach and offers management strategy when they do occur.

  1. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  2. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  3. Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy of the uranium including calcium. Time resolved measurement spectroscopic analysis (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akaoka, Katsuaki; Maruyama, Youichiro; Oba, Masaki; Miyabe, Masabumi; Otobe, Haruyoshi; Wakaida, Ikuo

    2010-05-01

    For the remote analysis of low DF TRU (Decontamination Factor Transuranic) fuel, Laser Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) was applied to uranium oxide including a small amount of calcium oxide. The characteristics, such as spectrum intensity and plasma excitation temperature, were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. As a result, in order to obtain the stable intensity of calcium spectrum for the uranium spectrum, it was found out that the optimum observation delay time of spectrum is 4 microseconds or more after laser irradiation. (author)

  4. Chronic disease risk factors, healthy days and medical claims in South African employees presenting for health risk screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolbe-Alexander Tracy L

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCD accounts for more than a third (37% of all deaths in South Africa. However, this burden of disease can be reduced by addressing risk factors. The aim of this study was to determine the health and risk profile of South African employees presenting for health risk assessments and to measure their readiness to change and improve lifestyle behaviour. Methods Employees (n = 1954 from 18 companies were invited to take part in a wellness day, which included a health-risk assessment. Self-reported health behaviour and health status was recorded. Clinical measures included cholesterol finger-prick test, blood pressure and Body Mass Index (BMI. Health-related age was calculated using an algorithm incorporating the relative risk for all case mortality associated with smoking, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake, BMI and cholesterol. Medical claims data were obtained from the health insurer. Results The mean percentage of participation was 26% (n = 1954 and ranged from 4% in transport to 81% in the consulting sector. Health-related age (38.5 ± 12.9 years was significantly higher than chronological age (34.9 ± 10.3 yrs (p Conclusion SA employees' health and lifestyle habits are placing them at increased risk for NCD's, suggesting that they may develop NCD's earlier than expected. Inter-sectoral differences for health-related age might provide insight into those companies which have the greatest need for interventions, and may also assist in predicting future medical expenditure. This study underscores the importance of determining the health and risk status of employees which could assist in identifying the appropriate interventions to reduce the risk of NCD's among employees.

  5. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  6. Methodology for measuring environmental health within Europe. Health Risk from Environmental Pollution Levels in Urban Systems (HEREPLUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Zscheppang

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The European Commission funds a European research project titled “Health Risk from Environmental Pollution Levels in Urban Systems” (HEREPLUS that focuses on environmental health within Europe. The HEREPLUS project was presented at the 16th EUPHA conference in Lisbon in November 2008 within a workshop named “The assessment of the effect of air pollution on population and environmental health: the integration of epidemiology and geographical information system (GIS”.

    Methods: The HEREPLUS project aims to measure the correlation between air pollution (especially ozone and particulate matter, meteorology, vegetation and human health in four European cities (Rome, Madrid, Athens and Dresden by using a Geoinformation System to develop risk maps and subsequently guidelines to reduce air pollution and number of diseases.

    Results: The project started in September 2008 and a large, structured, relational database has been developed and completed. A literature review including national as well as international scientific literature goes on and will be completed in April 2009. Final results will be presented and published in 2011.

    Conclusions: Detailed scientific knowledge is important and needed to implement environmental programmes with the overall aim to protect human population against environmental related diseases.

  7. A Closed-Form Solution for Robust Portfolio Selection with Worst-Case CVaR Risk Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the uncertainty probability distribution, we establish the worst-case CVaR (WCCVaR risk measure and discuss a robust portfolio selection problem with WCCVaR constraint. The explicit solution, instead of numerical solution, is found and two-fund separation is proved. The comparison of efficient frontier with mean-variance model is discussed and finally we give numerical comparison with VaR model and equally weighted strategy. The numerical findings indicate that the proposed WCCVaR model has relatively smaller risk and greater return and relatively higher accumulative wealth than VaR model and equally weighted strategy.

  8. Can the care transitions measure predict rehospitalization risk or home health nursing use of home healthcare patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryvicker, Miriam; McDonald, Margaret V; Trachtenberg, Melissa; Peng, Timothy R; Sridharan, Sridevi; Feldman, Penny H

    2013-01-01

    The Care Transitions Measure (CTM) was designed to assess the quality of patient transitions from the hospital. Many hospitals are using the measure to inform their efforts to improve transitional care. We sought to determine if the measure would have utility for home healthcare providers by predicting newly admitted patients at heightened risk for emergency department use, rehospitalization, or increased home health nursing visits. The CTM was administered to 495 home healthcare patients shortly after hospital discharge and home healthcare admission. Follow-up interviews were completed 30 and 60 days post hospital discharge. Interview data were supplemented with agency assessment and service use data. We did not find evidence that the CTM could predict home healthcare patients having an elevated risk for emergent care, rehospitalization, or higher home health nursing use. Because Medicare/Medicaid-certified home healthcare providers already use a comprehensive, mandated start of care assessment, the CTM may not provide them additional crucial information. Process and outcome measurement is increasingly becoming part of usual care. Selection of measures appropriate for each service setting requires thorough site-specific evaluation. In light of our findings, we cannot recommend the CTM as an additional measure in the home healthcare setting. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  9. Frailty measurements and dysphagia in the outpatient setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, Bridget; Vaezi, Alec; Egloff, Ann Marie; Smith, Libby; Wasserman-Wincko, Tamara; Johnson, Jonas T

    2014-09-01

    Deconditioning and frailty may contribute to dysphagia and aspiration. Early identification of patients at risk of aspiration is important. Aspiration prevention would lead to reduced morbidity and health care costs. We therefore wondered whether objective measurements of frailty could help identify patients at risk for dysphagia and aspiration. Consecutive patients (n = 183) were enrolled. Patient characteristics and objective measures of frailty were recorded prospectively. Variables tested included age, body mass index, grip strength, and 5 meter walk pace. Statistical analysis tested for association between these parameters and dysphagia or aspiration, diagnosed by instrumental swallowing examination. Of variables tested for association with grip strength, only age category (P = .003) and ambulatory status (P dysphagia or aspiration, ambulatory status was significantly associated with dysphagia and aspiration in multivariable model building. Nonambulatory status is a predictor of aspiration and should be included in risk assessments for dysphagia. The relationship between frailty and dysphagia deserves further investigation. Frailty assessments may help identify those at risk for complications of dysphagia. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Including risk in enterprise decisions in Australia’s riskiest businesses

    OpenAIRE

    Keogh, Mick

    2012-01-01

    This study uses measures of revenue volatility to make comparisons between the business environments experienced by Australian and international farm businesses, and also between Australian farm businesses and businesses in other sectors of the Australian economy. The results indicate that Australian farm business managers operate in a more volatile business environment than is the case for virtually all national agriculture sectors world-wide, and also that businesses involved in Australian ...

  11. Evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimisation measures: the application of a conceptual framework to Danish real-world dabigatran data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyeland, Martin Erik; Laursen, Mona Vestergaard; Callréus, Torbjörn

    2017-06-01

    For both marketing authorization holders and regulatory authorities, evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization measures is now an integral part of pharmacovigilance in the European Union. The overall aim of activities in this area is to assess the performance of risk minimization measures implemented in order to ensure a positive benefit-risk balance in patients treated with a medicinal product. Following a review of the relevant literature, we developed a conceptual framework consisting of four domains (data, knowledge, behaviour and outcomes) intended for the evaluation of risk minimization measures put into practice in the Danish health-care system. For the implementation of the framework, four classes of monitoring variables can be named and defined: patient descriptors, performance-related indicators of knowledge, behaviour and outcomes. We reviewed the features of the framework when applied to historical, real-world data following the introduction of dabigatran in Denmark for the prophylactic treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The application of the framework provided useful graphical displays and an opportunity for a statistical evaluation (interrupted time series analysis) of a regulatory intervention. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  13. Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investments in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Neshat Podvorica

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the importance of political risk and its impact on attracting investments, also to analyse policies made by the Kosovo institutions to reduce political risk and increase the FDIs. Attracting of the FDIs is complex because they depend on many factors, and one of the methods that measure political risk is the model used by the PRS Group that includes the flow of the economy through 12 components. Measuring political risk plays an important role in transitional countries, because these are countries that have problems in various fields and also the trust on by the investors is low. As a finding of this study is that Kosovo is estimated to have moderate political risk, and is close to joining the group of countries with low political risk. Challenges faced by Kosovo in reducing political risk are concentrated in several components, which are: socioeconomic, corruption and rule of law components. Kosovo has taken significant steps in improving the conditions for investment, government stability and positioning of the country facing internal and external conflicts.

  14. Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Podpiera, Jiří; Weill, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 4 (2010), s. 294-306 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * risk-taking * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1189_str_294_306_-_weill-podpiera.pdf

  15. Risk and reward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellas, G.K.; Hodgshon, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper looks at the problems facing the international oil explorationist and host Governments in 1992, under a cloud of low oil prices and falling company profits, yet with more quality acreage available worldwide than for many years, especially with the emergence of the CIS states as prospective hunting grounds for the western oil company. Given the extent of the spread of opportunities available to companies and recognition of the increasing need to justify, on economic grounds, progress with any licence application this paper suggests two approaches that companies can adopt to rank the opportunities available, and maximize the value, on an after risk basis, of their (limited) international exploration budget : subjective rating by factor or the Risk/Reward balance. Both of these approaches include measures of prospectivity and measures of local cost and fiscal effects in providing an overall exploration rating which can be used by companies to rank the available opportunities

  16. Measurement network design including traveltime determinations to minimize model prediction uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, G.M.C.M.; Valstar, J.R.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traveltime determinations have found increasing application in the characterization of groundwater systems. No algorithms are available, however, to optimally design sampling strategies including this information type. We propose a first-order methodology to include groundwater age or tracer arrival

  17. Clinical correlates of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis measures in individuals at risk for psychosis and with first-episode psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labad, Javier; Armario, Antonio; Nadal, Roser; Solé, Montse; Gutiérrez-Zotes, Alfonso; Montalvo, Itziar; Moreno-Samaniego, Lorena; Martorell, Lourdes; Sánchez-Gistau, Vanessa; Vilella, Elisabet

    2018-07-01

    Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis alterations in at-risk mental states (ARMS) resemble those observed in established psychosis but are less consistent. We aimed to explore HPA axis abnormalities in both first-episode psychosis (FEP) and ARMS patients, while controlling for psychopathological symptoms. We studied 21 ARMS, 34 FEP patients and 34 healthy subjects. Clinical assessment included psychopathological symptoms (positive, negative, disorganized, excited and depressive symptoms) and stress measures. Saliva cortisol levels were determined at awakening, 30' and 60' post-awakening, 10:00 h, 23:00 h and 10:00 h on the day after the administration of 0.25 mg of dexamethasone, which occurred at 23:00 h. Three HPA axis measures were calculated: cortisol awakening response (CAR), cortisol diurnal slope and cortisol suppression ratio of the dexamethasone suppression test (DST). There were no significant differences between groups in HPA axis measures. However, when exploring the relationship between HPA axis measures and psychopathological symptoms, in ARMS subjects (but not FEP patients), a flatter cortisol slope was associated with more prominent negative symptoms, whereas a blunted CAR was associated with excited symptoms. Although no significant differences in HPA axis measures were found between diagnostic groups, subtle abnormalities in the CAR or circadian cortisol rhythmicity might be important for the phenotype of ARMS individuals. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Kälin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  19. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

    2013-04-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  20. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, P A; Geraci, C L; Hodson, L L; Zumwalde, R D; Kuempel, E D; Murashov, V; Martinez, K F; Heidel, D S

    2013-01-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.