WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk measures included

  1. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

  2. The FARE: A new way to express FAlls Risk among older persons including physical activity as a measure of Exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijlhuizen, G.J.; Chorus, A.M.J.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Common expressions of falls risk do not include exposure to hazards. We compared two expressions: the commonly used population incidence (fallers per 1000 person-years) and the FARE (FAlls Risk by Exposure): the number of fallers per 1000 physically active person-days. Methods:

  3. The FARE: a new way to express FAlls Risk among older persons including physical activity as a measure of exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijlhuizen, G.J.; Chorus, A.M.J.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Common expressions of falls risk do not include exposure to hazards. We compared two expressions: the commonly used population incidence (fallers per 1000 person-years) and the FARE (FAlls Risk by Exposure): the number of fallers per 1000 physically active person-days. Methods:

  4. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  5. Including risk in the balanced scorecard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    and implementation methods of Johannesburg Stock. Exchange listed organisations. P.N. Kotze ... risk management and the BSC as well as the adoption rates for both frameworks among Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) ..... Special investment vehicles were excluded from the study as these organisations do not hold ...

  6. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  7. No psychological distress in sportsmen aged 45 years and older after cardiovascular screening, including cardiac CT: The Measuring Athlete's Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurink, M M; Braber, T L; Prakken, N H J; Doevendans, P A F M; Backx, F J G; Grobbee, D E; Rienks, R; Nathoe, H M; Bots, M L; Velthuis, B K; Mosterd, A

    2017-04-01

    Psychological distress caused by cardiovascular pre-participation screening (PPS) may be a reason not to implement a PPS program. We assessed the psychological impact of PPS, including cardiac computed tomography (CT), in 318 asymptomatic sportsmen aged ≥45 years. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was defined as a coronary artery calcium score ≥100 Agatson units and/or ≥50% luminal stenosis on contrast-enhanced cardiac CT. Psychological impact was measured with the Impact of Event Scale (IES) (seven items) on a six-point scale (grade 0-5). A sum score ≥19 indicates clinically relevant psychological distress. A Likert scale was used to assess overall experiences and impact on sports and lifestyle. A total of 275 participants (86.5% response rate, 95% CI 83-90%) with a mean age of 54.5 ± 6.4 years completed the questionnaires, 48 (17.5%, 95% CI 13-22%) of whom had CAD. The median IES score was 1 (IQR 0-2, [0-23]). IES was slightly higher in those with CAD (mean rank 175 vs. 130, p psychological distress (IES = 23). Participants reported numerous benefits, including feeling safer exercising (58.6%, 95% CI 53-65%) and positive lifestyle changes, especially in those with CAD (17.2 vs. 52.1%, p psychological distress in older sportsmen. Psychological distress should not be a reason to forego screening in sportsmen.

  8. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  9. No psychological distress in sportsmen aged 45 years and older after cardiovascular screening, including cardiac CT : The Measuring Athlete's Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schurink, M. M.; Braber, T. L.; Prakken, N. H. J.; Doevendans, P. A. F. M.; Backx, F. J. G.; Grobbee, D. E.; Rienks, R.; Nathoe, H. M.; Bots, M. L.; Velthuis, B. K.; Mosterd, A.

    Background Psychological distress caused by cardiovascular pre-participation screening (PPS) may be a reason not to implement a PPS program. We assessed the psychological impact of PPS, including cardiac computed tomography (CT), in 318 asymptomatic sportsmen aged >= 45 years. Methods Coronary

  10. No psychological distress in sportsmen aged 45 years and older after cardiovascular screening, including cardiac CT : The Measuring Athlete’s Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schurink, M. M.; Braber, T. L.; Prakken, N. H J; Doevendans, P. A F M; Backx, F. J G; Grobbee, D. E.; Rienks, R.; Nathoe, H. M.; Bots, M. L.; Velthuis, B. K.; Mosterd, A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Psychological distress caused by cardiovascular pre-participation screening (PPS) may be a reason not to implement a PPS program. We assessed the psychological impact of PPS, including cardiac computed tomography (CT), in 318 asymptomatic sportsmen aged ≥45 years. Methods Coronary artery

  11. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  12. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  13. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  14. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  16. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  17. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  18. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackmurdo, R.

    1994-01-01

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  19. Truck Drivers And Risk Of STDs Including HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bansal R.K

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Research Question: Whether long distance truck drivers are at a higher risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV? Objectives: i To study the degree of knowledge of HIV and AIDS among long- distance truck drivers. ii Assess their sexual behaviour including condom use. iii Explore their prevailing social influences and substance abuse patterns. iv Explore their treatment seeking bahaviour as regards STDs. v Deduce their risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV. Study Design: Cross- sectional interview. Setting: Transport Nagar, Indore (M.P Participants: 210 senior drivers (First drivers and 210 junior drivers (Second drivers. Study Variables: Extra-Marital sexual intercourse, condom usage, past and present history of STDs, treatment and counseling, substance abuse, social â€" cultural milieu. Outcome Variables: Risk of contraction of STDs. Statistical Analysis: Univariate analysis. Results: 94% of the drivers were totally ignorant about AIDS. 82.9% and 43.8 % of the senior and junior drivers had a history of extra- marital sex and of these only 2 regularly used condoms. 13.8% and 3.3 % of the senior and junior drivers had a past or present history suggestive of STD infection. Alcohol and Opium were regularly used by them. Conclusion: The studied drivers are at a high risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV.

  20. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  1. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  2. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  3. Risk Factors for Breast Cancer, Including Occupational Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Weiderpass

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge on the etiology of breast cancer has advanced substantially in recent years, and several etiological factors are now firmly established. However, very few new discoveries have been made in relation to occupational risk factors. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated over 900 different exposures or agents to-date to determine whether they are carcinogenic to humans. These evaluations are published as a series of Monographs (www.iarc.fr. For breast cancer the following substances have been classified as “carcinogenic to humans” (Group 1: alcoholic beverages, exposure to diethylstilbestrol, estrogen-progestogen contraceptives, estrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapy and exposure to X-radiation and gamma-radiation (in special populations such as atomic bomb survivors, medical patients, and in-utero exposure. Ethylene oxide is also classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, although the evidence for carcinogenicity in epidemiologic studies, and specifically for the human breast, is limited. The classification “probably carcinogenic to humans” (Group 2A includes estrogen hormone replacement therapy, tobacco smoking, and shift work involving circadian disruption, including work as a flight attendant. If the association between shift work and breast cancer, the most common female cancer, is confirmed, shift work could become the leading cause of occupational cancer in women.

  4. Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, O.E.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

  5. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

    1991-05-01

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  6. Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

    2002-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

  7. Global Analysis of Solar Neutrino Oscillations Including SNO CC Measurement

    CERN Document Server

    Bahcall, J N; Peña-Garay, C; Bahcall, John N; Peña-Garay, Carlos

    2001-01-01

    For active and sterile neutrinos, we present the globally allowed solutions for two neutrino oscillations. We include the SNO CC measurement and all other relevant solar neutrino and reactor data. Five active neutrino oscillation solutions (LMA, LOW, SMA, VAC, and Just So2) are currently allowed at 3 sigma; three sterile neutrino solutions (Just So2, SMA, and VAC) are allowed at 3 sigma. The goodness of fit is satisfactory for all eight solutions. We also investigate the robustness of the allowed solutions by carrying out global analyses with and without: 1) imposing solar model constraints on the 8B neutrino flux, 2) including the Super-Kamiokande spectral energy distribution and day-night data, 3) using an enhanced CC cross section for deuterium (due to radiative corrections), and 4) a optimistic, hypothetical reduction by a factor of three of the error of the SNO CC rate. For every analysis strategy used in this paper, the most favored solutions all involve large mixing angles: LMA, LOW, or VAC. The favore...

  8. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  9. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  10. Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.

    1997-12-01

    This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process

  11. Measurements for testing of fluoroscopic screens, including the photofluorographic units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balfanz, R.

    1986-01-01

    Image quality control measurements for fluoroscopic screens and photofluorographs have shown that both types of equipment have a long operating life, so that constancy and technical performance tests are absolutely necessary. It is recommended to conclude in-service maintenance contracts with the manufacturers. (DG) [de

  12. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  13. Alcohol intake and colorectal cancer: a comparison of approaches for including repeated measures of alcohol consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Wu, Kana; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In numerous studies, alcohol intake has been found to be positively associated with colorectal cancer risk. However, the majority of studies included only one exposure measurement, which may bias the results if long-term intake is relevant.METHODS: We compared different approaches...... for including repeated measures of alcohol intake among 47,432 US men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Questionnaires including questions on alcohol intake had been completed in 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998. The outcome was incident colorectal cancer during follow-up from 1986 to 2002.RESULTS......: During follow-up, 868 members of the cohort experienced colorectal cancer. Baseline, updated, and cumulative average alcohol intakes were positively associated with colorectal cancer, with only minor differences among the approaches. These results support moderately increased risk for intake >30 g...

  14. Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

    2016-11-01

    Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  16. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  17. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  18. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  19. Decision principles derived from risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  20. Risk concepts in various fields including radiation protection. A historical review and some recent topics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2000-01-01

    This is a review by the expert group concerning risks in radiation protection and in chemical management, recent state of protection and of health-risk assessment of low dose radiation, and risk concepts in other fields. Risk concepts in radiation protection are described mainly on ICRP: Its history leading to its Publication 1 (1958), Pub. 9 (1965), Pub. 26 (1977) and Pub. 60 (1990). In that recent publication, the term, risk, is used only for the established one like estimated risk or excess relative risk. Risk management of chemicals involves that against pollution from environmental and ecological aspects, and assessment of dioxin and chemicals from toxicology and carcinogenicity aspects. Recently, risks of low dose radiation have been actively discussed conceivably because of possible reduction of the exposure limit in ICRP Recommendation 1990, Chernobyl accident, advances of radiation biology and radiation protection problem in the radioactive waste disposition. Globally, many academic societies such as American Health-Physics Society published Position Statements and Reports and there are activities like the Research program plan for the risk and an international conference of bridging radiation policy and science. Risk concepts involve technological and ecological ones, insurance ones and health ones. Risk assessment or analysis is done through recognition, measurement and prediction, thus through the scientific process based on objective facts. (K.H.)

  1. Including threat actor capability and motivation in risk assessment for Smart GRIDs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossebo, J.E.Y.; Fransen, F.; Luiijf, H.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The SEGRID (Security for Smart Electricity GRIDs) collaboration project, funded by the EU under the FP7 program investigates risk assessment methodologies and their possible need for enhancement. In this paper we discuss the need to include threat actor analysis in threat, vulnerability and risk

  2. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  3. Some new classes of consistent risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

  4. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.W.

    1978-01-01

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  5. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  6. Risk assessment of titanium dioxide nanoparticles via oral exposure, including toxicokinetic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heringa, Minne B; Geraets, Liesbeth; van Eijkeren, Jan C H; Vandebriel, Rob J; de Jong, Wim H; Oomen, Agnes G

    2016-12-01

    Titanium dioxide white pigment consists of particles of various sizes, from which a fraction is in the nano range (food as additive E 171 as well as in other products, such as food supplements and toothpaste. Here, we assessed whether a human health risk can be expected from oral ingestion of these titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO 2 NPs), based on currently available information. Human health risks were assessed using two different approaches: Approach 1, based on intake, i.e. external doses, and Approach 2, based on internal organ concentrations using a kinetic model in order to account for accumulation over time (the preferred approach). Results showed that with Approach 1, a human health risk is not expected for effects in liver and spleen, but a human health risk cannot be excluded for effects on the ovaries. When based on organ concentrations by including the toxicokinetics of TiO 2 NPs (Approach 2), a potential risk for liver, ovaries and testes is found. This difference between the two approaches shows the importance of including toxicokinetic information. The currently estimated risk can be influenced by factors such as absorption, form of TiO 2 , particle fraction, particle size and physico-chemical properties in relation to toxicity, among others. Analysis of actual particle concentrations in human organs, as well as organ concentrations and effects in liver and the reproductive system after chronic exposure to well-characterized TiO 2 (NPs) in animals are recommended to refine this assessment.

  7. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  8. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  9. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  10. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  11. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  12. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  13. On the use of risk-informed regulation including organizational factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibelli, S.M.O.; Alvarenga, M.A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk-Informed Regulation (RIR) can be applied by using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a basic tool. Traditionally, PSA methodology encompasses the calculation of failure probabilities of Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) and direct associated human errors. However, there are indirect causes related to human failures, associated with Organizational Factors, which are normally not included in fault trees, that may influence plant risk evaluation. This paper discusses on possible applications of RIR and on Organizational Factors. It also presents a classification of Angra-1 NPP unresolved issues, aiming a future inclusion of these factors into a PSA calculation. (author)

  14. A technique of including the effect of aging of passive components in probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

    1992-01-01

    The probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) being developed at most nuclear power plants to calculate the risk of core damage generally focus on the possible failure of active components. The possible failure of passive components is given little consideration. We are developing methods for selecting risk-significant passive components and including them in PRAS. These methods provide effective ways to prioritize passive components for inspection, and where inspection reveals aging damage, mitigation or repair can be employed to reduce the likelihood of component failure. We demonstrated a method by selecting a weld in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system, basing our selection on expert judgement of the likelihood of failure and on an estimate of the consequence of component failure to plant safety. We then modified and used the Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code to perform a probabilistic structural analysis to calculate the probability that crack growth due to aging would cause the weld to fail. The PRAISE code was modified to include the effects of changing design material properties with age and changing stress cycles. The calculation included the effects of mechanical loads and thermal transients typical of the service loads for this piping design and the effects of thermal cycling caused by a leaking check valve. However, this particular calculation showed little change in low component failure probability and plant risk for 48 years of service. However, sensitivity studies showed that if the probability of component failure is high, the effect on plant risk is significant. The success of this demonstration shows that this method could be applied to nuclear power plants. The demonstration showed the method is too involved (PRAISE takes a long time to perform the calculation and the input information is extensive) for handling a large number of passive components and therefore simpler methods are needed

  15. Force measuring valve assemblies, systems including such valve assemblies and related methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWall, Kevin George [Pocatello, ID; Garcia, Humberto Enrique [Idaho Falls, ID; McKellar, Michael George [Idaho Falls, ID

    2012-04-17

    Methods of evaluating a fluid condition may include stroking a valve member and measuring a force acting on the valve member during the stroke. Methods of evaluating a fluid condition may include measuring a force acting on a valve member in the presence of fluid flow over a period of time and evaluating at least one of the frequency of changes in the measured force over the period of time and the magnitude of the changes in the measured force over the period of time to identify the presence of an anomaly in a fluid flow and, optionally, its estimated location. Methods of evaluating a valve condition may include directing a fluid flow through a valve while stroking a valve member, measuring a force acting on the valve member during the stroke, and comparing the measured force to a reference force. Valve assemblies and related systems are also disclosed.

  16. A Cyber Security Risk Assessment of Hospital Infrastructure including TLS/SSL and other Threats

    OpenAIRE

    Millar, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    Cyber threats traditionally target governments, financial institutions and businesses. However, of growing concern is the threat to healthcare organizations. This study conducts a cyber security risk assessment of a theoretical hospital environment, to include TLS/SSL, which is an encryption protocol for network communications, plus other physical, logical and human threats. Despite significant budgets in the UK for the NHS, the spend on cyber security appears worryingly low and many hospital...

  17. Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

  18. Cost and benefit including value of life, health and environmental damage measured in time units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Key elements of the authors' work on money equivalent time allocation to costs and benefits in risk analysis are put together as an entity. This includes the data supported dimensionless analysis of an equilibrium relation between total population work time and gross domestic product leading...... of this societal value over the actual costs, used by the owner for economically optimizing an activity, motivates a simple risk accept criterion suited to be imposed on the owner by the public. An illustration is given concerning allocation of economical means for mitigation of loss of life and health on a ferry...

  19. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  20. Risk of Being Subjected to Crime, Including Violent Crime, After Onset of Mental Illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dean, Kimberlie; Laursen, Thomas M; Pedersen, Carsten B

    2018-01-01

    Importance: People with mental illness are more likely to have contact with the criminal justice system, but research to date has focused on risk of offense perpetration, while less is known about risk of being subjected to crime and violence. Objectives: To establish the incidence of being...... subjected to all types of criminal offenses, and by violent crimes separately, after onset of mental illness across the full diagnostic spectrum compared with those in the population without mental illness. Design, Setting, and Participants: This investigation was a longitudinal national cohort study using...... of mental illness, recorded as first contact with outpatient or inpatient mental health services. Diagnoses across the full spectrum of psychiatric diagnoses were considered separately for men and women. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated for first subjection to crime...

  1. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  2. A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebun Erdur

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundSymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors—namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.MethodsWe analyzed our local cohort (Berlin of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel.ResultssICH occurred in 53 (4.0% of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4% had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60–0.77 in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.ConclusionWe developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

  3. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  4. Measuring Outcomes in Adult Weight Loss Studies That Include Diet and Physical Activity: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A. Millstein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Measuring success of obesity interventions is critical. Several methods measure weight loss outcomes but there is no consensus on best practices. This systematic review evaluates relevant outcomes (weight loss, BMI, % body fat, and fat mass to determine which might be the best indicator(s of success. Methods. Eligible articles described adult weight loss interventions that included diet and physical activity and a measure of weight or BMI change and body composition change. Results. 28 full-text articles met inclusion criteria. Subjects, settings, intervention lengths, and intensities varied. All studies measured body weight (−2.9 to −17.3 kg, 9 studies measured BMI (−1.1 to −5.1 kg/m2, 20 studies measured % body fat (−0.7 to −10.2%, and 22 studies measured fat mass (−0.9 to −14.9 kg. All studies found agreement between weight or BMI and body fat mass or body fat % decreases, though there were discrepancies in degree of significance between measures. Conclusions. Nearly all weight or BMI and body composition measures agreed. Since body fat is the most metabolically harmful tissue type, it may be a more meaningful measure of health change. Future studies should consider primarily measuring % body fat, rather than or in addition to weight or BMI.

  5. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  6. Portable instrumentation for quantitatively measuring radioactive surface contaminations, including 90Sr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodzinski, R.L.

    1983-10-01

    In order to measure the effectiveness of decontamination efforts, a quantitative analysis of the radiocontamination is necessary, both before and after decontamination. Since it is desirable to release the decontaminated material for unrestricted use or disposal, the assay equipment must provide adequate sensitivity to measure the radioactivity at or below the release limit. In addition, the instrumentation must be capable of measuring all kinds of radiocontaminants including fission products, activation products, and transuranic materials. Finally, the survey instrumentation must be extremely versatile in order to assay the wide variety of contaminated surfaces in many environments, some of which may be extremely hostile or remote. This communication describes the development and application of portable instrumentation capable of quantitatively measuring most transuranics, activation products, and fission products, including 90 Sr, on almost any contaminated surface in nearly any location

  7. Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeněk Konečný

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

  8. Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsbottom David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

  9. Pesticide exposure as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma including histopathological subgroup analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Mikael; Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Akerman, Måns

    2008-10-01

    We report a population based case-control study of exposure to pesticides as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Male and female subjects aged 18-74 years living in Sweden were included during December 1, 1999, to April 30, 2002. Controls were selected from the national population registry. Exposure to different agents was assessed by questionnaire. In total 910 (91 %) cases and 1016 (92%) controls participated. Exposure to herbicides gave odds ratio (OR) 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.51. Regarding phenoxyacetic acids highest risk was calculated for MCPA; OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.27-6.22, all these cases had a latency period >10 years. Exposure to glyphosate gave OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.10-3.71 and with >10 years latency period OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.16-4.40. Insecticides overall gave OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.96-1.72 and impregnating agents OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.07-2.30. Results are also presented for different entities of NHL. In conclusion our study confirmed an association between exposure to phenoxyacetic acids and NHL and the association with glyphosate was considerably strengthened.

  10. Neonatal health including congenital malformation risk of 1072 children born after vitrified embryo transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belva, F; Bonduelle, M; Roelants, M; Verheyen, G; Van Landuyt, L

    2016-07-01

    Does vitrification of Day 3 and Day 5 embryos adversely affect birth outcomes of singletons and twins in comparison with peers born after fresh embryo transfer? Neonatal health parameters, including the prevalence of congenital malformations, in singletons and twins born after embryo vitrification are similar to or slightly better than after fresh embryo transfer. Although vitrification, rather than slow-freezing, of embryos is routine practice nowadays, convincing evidence regarding the safety for the offspring is sparse. Literature data comprise results from mostly small-sized studies or studies including only Day 3 or only Day 5 vitrified embryo transfers. Overall, better or comparable perinatal outcomes, in terms of higher birthweight and lower risk for small-for-gestational age or for low birthweight, have been reported for singletons born after vitrified embryo transfer compared with fresh embryo transfer. According to the single available study with sufficient sample size, the congenital malformation rate was found to be comparable after vitrified and fresh embryo transfers. Data were collected from 960 cycles after transfer of embryos vitrified on Day 3 (n = 457) or Day 5 (n = 503) and from 1644 cycles after fresh embryo transfer on Day 3 (n = 853) or Day 5 (n = 791), performed between 2008 and 2013 at the Centre for Reproductive Medicine of the university hospital UZ Brussel. Outcome measures were neonatal health in terms of birthweight, small-for-gestational age, prematurity rate, perinatal death and major/minor/total malformation rate. Perinatal health parameters of 11 stillborns and 1061 live borns (827 singletons and 234 twins) in the vitrified group and of 28 stillborns and 1838 live borns (1374 singletons and 464 twins) in the fresh embryo group are reported. Within 3 months after birth, children in the two study groups were assessed clinically with special attention to congenital malformations by a paediatrician blinded to the type of embryo

  11. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  12. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  13. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

    1993-05-01

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  14. Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy of the uranium including calcium. Time resolved measurement spectroscopic analysis (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akaoka, Katsuaki; Maruyama, Youichiro; Oba, Masaki; Miyabe, Masabumi; Otobe, Haruyoshi; Wakaida, Ikuo

    2010-05-01

    For the remote analysis of low DF TRU (Decontamination Factor Transuranic) fuel, Laser Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) was applied to uranium oxide including a small amount of calcium oxide. The characteristics, such as spectrum intensity and plasma excitation temperature, were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. As a result, in order to obtain the stable intensity of calcium spectrum for the uranium spectrum, it was found out that the optimum observation delay time of spectrum is 4 microseconds or more after laser irradiation. (author)

  15. Including health insurance in poverty measurement: The impact of Massachusetts health reform on poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenman, Sanders D; Remler, Dahlia K

    2016-12-01

    We develop and implement what we believe is the first conceptually valid health-inclusive poverty measure (HIPM) - a measure that includes health care or insurance in the poverty needs threshold and health insurance benefits in family resources - and we discuss its limitations. Building on the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure, we construct a pilot HIPM for the under-65 population under ACA-like health reform in Massachusetts. This pilot demonstrates the practicality, face validity and value of a HIPM. Results suggest that public health insurance benefits and premium subsidies accounted for a substantial, one-third reduction in the health inclusive poverty rate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. IntelliGO: a new vector-based semantic similarity measure including annotation origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devignes Marie-Dominique

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Gene Ontology (GO is a well known controlled vocabulary describing the biological process, molecular function and cellular component aspects of gene annotation. It has become a widely used knowledge source in bioinformatics for annotating genes and measuring their semantic similarity. These measures generally involve the GO graph structure, the information content of GO aspects, or a combination of both. However, only a few of the semantic similarity measures described so far can handle GO annotations differently according to their origin (i.e. their evidence codes. Results We present here a new semantic similarity measure called IntelliGO which integrates several complementary properties in a novel vector space model. The coefficients associated with each GO term that annotates a given gene or protein include its information content as well as a customized value for each type of GO evidence code. The generalized cosine similarity measure, used for calculating the dot product between two vectors, has been rigorously adapted to the context of the GO graph. The IntelliGO similarity measure is tested on two benchmark datasets consisting of KEGG pathways and Pfam domains grouped as clans, considering the GO biological process and molecular function terms, respectively, for a total of 683 yeast and human genes and involving more than 67,900 pair-wise comparisons. The ability of the IntelliGO similarity measure to express the biological cohesion of sets of genes compares favourably to four existing similarity measures. For inter-set comparison, it consistently discriminates between distinct sets of genes. Furthermore, the IntelliGO similarity measure allows the influence of weights assigned to evidence codes to be checked. Finally, the results obtained with a complementary reference technique give intermediate but correct correlation values with the sequence similarity, Pfam, and Enzyme classifications when compared to

  17. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

  18. Spectral interferometry including the effect of transparent thin films to measure distances and displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlubina, P.

    2004-01-01

    A spectral-domain interferometric technique is applied for measuring mirror distances and displacements in a dispersive Michelson interferometer when the effect of transparent thin films coated onto the interferometer beam splitter and compensator is known. We employ a low-resolution spectrometer in two experiments with different amounts of dispersion in a Michelson interferometer that includes fused-silica optical sample. Knowing the thickness of the optical sample and the nonlinear phase function of the thin films, the positions of the interferometer mirror are determined precisely by a least-squares fitting of the theoretical spectral interferograms to the recorded ones. We compare the results of the processing that include and do not include the effect of transparent thin films (Author)

  19. QMRAcatch: Microbial Quality Simulation of Water Resources including Infection Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schijven, Jack; Derx, Julia; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Farnleitner, Andreas H

    2015-09-01

    Given the complex hydrologic dynamics of water catchments and conflicts between nature protection and public water supply, models may help to understand catchment dynamics and evaluate contamination scenarios and may support best environmental practices and water safety management. A catchment model can be an educative tool for investigating water quality and for communication between parties with different interests in the catchment. This article introduces an interactive computational tool, QMRAcatch, that was developed to simulate concentrations in water resources of , a human-associated microbial source tracking (MST) marker, enterovirus, norovirus, , and as target microorganisms and viruses (TMVs). The model domain encompasses a main river with wastewater discharges and a floodplain with a floodplain river. Diffuse agricultural sources of TMVs that discharge into the main river are not included in this stage of development. The floodplain river is fed by the main river and may flood the plain. Discharged TMVs in the river are subject to dilution and temperature-dependent degradation. River travel times are calculated using the Manning-Gauckler-Strickler formula. Fecal deposits from wildlife, birds, and visitors in the floodplain are resuspended in flood water, runoff to the floodplain river, or infiltrate groundwater. Fecal indicator and MST marker data facilitate calibration. Infection risks from exposure to the pathogenic TMVs by swimming or drinking water consumption are calculated, and the required pathogen removal by treatment to meet a health-based quality target can be determined. Applicability of QMRAcatch is demonstrated by calibrating the tool for a study site at the River Danube near Vienna, Austria, using field TMV data, including a sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the model outcomes. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  20. Immunological Assays as an Opportunity of Assessment of Health Risks of Airborne Particle Mixture Including Nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brzicová, Tána; Danihelka, Pavel; Micka, Vladimír; Lochman, Ivo; Lach, Karel; Lochmanová, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate perspectives of the assessment of nonspecific biological effects of airborne particulate matter including nanoparticles using appropriate immunological assays. We have selected various in vitro immunological assays to establish an array allowing us to monitor activation of the cell-mediated and humoral response of both the innate and adaptive immunity. To assess comprehensive interactions and effects, the assays were performed in whole blood cultures from healthy volunteers and we used an original airborne particle mixture from high pollution period in Ostrava region representing areas with one of the most polluted air in Europe. Even if certain effects were observed, the results of the immunological assays did not prove significant effects of airborne particles on immune cells' functions of healthy persons. However, obtained data do not exclude health risks of long-term exposure to airborne particles, especially in case of individuals with genetic predisposition to certain diseases or already existing disease. This study emphasizes the in vitro assessment of complex effects of airborne particles in conditions similar to actual ones in an organism exposed to particle mixture present in the polluted air.

  1. The instability of downside risk measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga-Haszonits, I; Kondor, I

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

  2. Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duftschmid, K.E.

    1994-05-01

    A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

  3. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  5. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness...... are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially...

  6. Prenatal Triclosan Exposure and Anthropometric Measures Including Anogenital Distance in Danish Infants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Tina Harmer; Frederiksen, Hanne; Kyhl, Henriette Boye

    2016-01-01

    , Swan SH, Main KM, Andersson AM, Lind DV, Husby S, Wohlfahrt-Veje C, Skakkebæk NE, Jensen TK. 2016. Prenatal triclosan exposure and anthropometric measures including anogenital distance in Danish infants. Environ Health Perspect 124:1261-1268; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409637.......BACKGROUND: Triclosan (TCS) is widely used as an antibacterial agent in consumer products such as hand soap and toothpaste, and human exposure is widespread. TCS is suspected of having endocrine-disrupting properties, but few human studies have examined the developmental effects of prenatal TCS...

  7. Commentary on guidelines for radiation measurement and treatment of substances including naturally occurring radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakurai, Naoyuki; Ishiguro, Hideharu

    2007-01-01

    Study group on safety regulation on research reactors in Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) reported the guidelines of 'Guidelines on radiation measurement and treatment of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM)' on 6 February 2006. RANDEC made the website contents 'Study on use and safety of the substances including uranium or thorium', based on the contract with MEXT to make theirs contents. This paper describes the outline of the website in MEXT homepage, background and contents of NORM guidelines in order to understand easily and visually the NORM guidelines, adding in some flowcharts and figures. (author)

  8. Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasa Nie

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. Methods: All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes’ definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. Results: The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58 for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42 for a propensity score-matched set. Conclusion: In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI.

  9. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

    2015-09-15

    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Validity of a questionnaire measuring motives for choosing foods including sustainable concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sautron, Valérie; Péneau, Sandrine; Camilleri, Géraldine M; Muller, Laurent; Ruffieux, Bernard; Hercberg, Serge; Méjean, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Since the 1990s, sustainability of diet has become an increasingly important concern for consumers. However, there is no validated multidimensional measurement of motivation in the choice of foods including a concern for sustainability currently available. In the present study, we developed a questionnaire that measures food choice motives during purchasing, and we tested its psychometric properties. The questionnaire included 104 items divided into four predefined dimensions (environmental, health and well-being, economic and miscellaneous). It was administered to 1000 randomly selected subjects participating in the Nutrinet-Santé cohort study. Among 637 responders, one-third found the questionnaire complex or too long, while one-quarter found it difficult to fill in. Its underlying structure was determined by exploratory factor analysis and then internally validated by confirmatory factor analysis. Reliability was also assessed by internal consistency of selected dimensions and test-retest repeatability. After selecting the most relevant items, first-order analysis highlighted nine main dimensions: labeled ethics and environment, local and traditional production, taste, price, environmental limitations, health, convenience, innovation and absence of contaminants. The model demonstrated excellent internal validity (adjusted goodness of fit index = 0.97; standardized root mean square residuals = 0.07) and satisfactory reliability (internal consistency = 0.96, test-retest repeatability coefficient ranged between 0.31 and 0.68 over a mean 4-week period). This study enabled precise identification of the various dimensions in food choice motives and proposed an original, internally valid tool applicable to large populations for assessing consumer food motivation during purchasing, particularly in terms of sustainability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Constraints on inflation revisited. An analysis including the latest local measurement of the Hubble constant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Rui-Yun [Northeastern University, Department of Physics, College of Sciences, Shenyang (China); Zhang, Xin [Northeastern University, Department of Physics, College of Sciences, Shenyang (China); Peking University, Center for High Energy Physics, Beijing (China)

    2017-12-15

    We revisit the constraints on inflation models by using the current cosmological observations involving the latest local measurement of the Hubble constant (H{sub 0} = 73.00 ± 1.75 km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}). We constrain the primordial power spectra of both scalar and tensor perturbations with the observational data including the Planck 2015 CMB full data, the BICEP2 and Keck Array CMB B-mode data, the BAO data, and the direct measurement of H{sub 0}. In order to relieve the tension between the local determination of the Hubble constant and the other astrophysical observations, we consider the additional parameter N{sub eff} in the cosmological model. We find that, for the ΛCDM+r+N{sub eff} model, the scale invariance is only excluded at the 3.3σ level, and ΔN{sub eff} > 0 is favored at the 1.6σ level. Comparing the obtained 1σ and 2σ contours of (n{sub s},r) with the theoretical predictions of selected inflation models, we find that both the convex and the concave potentials are favored at 2σ level, the natural inflation model is excluded at more than 2σ level, the Starobinsky R{sup 2} inflation model is only favored at around 2σ level, and the spontaneously broken SUSY inflation model is now the most favored model. (orig.)

  12. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

  13. A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

    2007-01-01

    .... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

  14. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murani, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  15. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

  16. Cancer risks related to low-level RF/MW exposures, including cell phones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmigielski, Stanislaw

    2013-09-01

    For years, radiofrequency (RF) and microwave (MW) radiations have been applied in the modern world. The rapidly increasing use of cellular phones called recent attention to the possible health risks of RF/MW exposures. In 2011, a group of international experts organized by IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon) concluded that RF/MW radiations should be listed as a possible carcinogen (group 2B) for humans. Three meta-analyses of case-control studies have concluded that using cell phones for more than ten years was associated with an increase in the overall risk of developing a brain tumor. The Interphone Study, the largest health-related case-control international study of use of cell phones and head and neck tumors, showed no statistically significant increases in brain cancers related to higher amounts of cell phone use, but excess risk in a small subgroup of more heavily exposed users associated with latency and laterality was reported. So far, the published studies do not show that mobile phones could for sure increase the risk of cancer. This conclusion is based on the lack of a solid biological mechanism, and the fact that brain cancer rates are not going up significantly. However, all of the studies so far have weaknesses, which make it impossible to entirely rule out a risk. Mobile phones are still a new technology and there is little evidence about effects of long-term use. For this reason, bioelectromagnetic experts advise application of a precautionary resources. It suggests that if people want to use a cell phone, they can choose to minimize their exposure by keeping calls short and preferably using hand-held sets. It also advises discouraging children from making non essential calls as well as also keeping their calls short.

  17. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

  18. Including ecosystem dynamics in risk assessment of radioactive waste in coastal regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.; Gilek, M.

    2000-01-01

    Radiation protection has mainly focused on assessing and minimising risks of negative effects on human health. Although some efforts have been made to estimate effects on non-human populations, modelling of radiation risks to other components of the ecosystem have often lead to more or less disappointing results. In this paper an ecosystem approach is suggested and exemplified with a preliminary 14 C model of a coastal Baltic ecosystem. Advantages with the proposed ecosystem approach are for example the possibility to detect important but previously neglected pathways to humans since the whole ecosystem is analysed. The results from the model indicate that a rather small share of hypothetical released 14 C would accumulate in biota due to large water exchange in the modelled area. However, modelled future scenarios imply opposite results, i.e. relatively high doses in biota, due to changes of the physical properties in the area that makes a larger accumulation possible. (author)

  19. Future global manpower shortages in nuclear industries with special reference to india including remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh Hazra, G.S.

    2008-01-01

    -2050. Service sector in India accounts for about 50% of GDP which will continue to increase further and will provide more jobs and better paid jobs than core industries and there will be continued shift of choice of employment towards service sector creating deep gap of manpower resource requirement in basic and core industries. There are reports that some countries may have to abandon some future projects because of non availability skilled manpower in core industries. The installed capacity of nuclear power in India in the year 2052 will be about 200 G We from the present about 4 G We which will be a manifold increase. This will need about estimated 1,30,000 skilled manpower from the present about 12,000 persons in nuclear industries. Moreover, the need for competent persons in nuclear industries because of high safety requirements of nuclear installations will further add to the problem. The following short-term strategies to retain and attract new employees in nuclear industries may be envisaged amongst others: - Recruit employees prior to the departure of experienced technical staff to facilitate knowledge transfer in time. - Increase compensation and the number of higher level positions. - Increase permanent entry-level intake of skilled manpower taking into account historical turn-over rate. - Implement attractive student loan repayment programs by tying up with banks and financial institutions. - Implement well researched strategies and measures including reassessing the practical capacity which nations including India can achieve in power generation in future taking practical aspects of manpower shortage. - Implement advanced technology which requires lesser manpower. - Implement higher level of automation in nuclear industries. The paper aims to highlight the acute problems of future manpower shortages in nuclear industries globally with special reference to India and discusses some remedial measures which may be taken to address the issue. (author)

  20. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

  1. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  2. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  3. The Human Bathtub: Safety and Risk Predictions Including the Dynamic Probability of Operator Errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, Romney B.; Saull, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Reactor safety and risk are dominated by the potential and major contribution for human error in the design, operation, control, management, regulation and maintenance of the plant, and hence to all accidents. Given the possibility of accidents and errors, now we need to determine the outcome (error) probability, or the chance of failure. Conventionally, reliability engineering is associated with the failure rate of components, or systems, or mechanisms, not of human beings in and interacting with a technological system. The probability of failure requires a prior knowledge of the total number of outcomes, which for any predictive purposes we do not know or have. Analysis of failure rates due to human error and the rate of learning allow a new determination of the dynamic human error rate in technological systems, consistent with and derived from the available world data. The basis for the analysis is the 'learning hypothesis' that humans learn from experience, and consequently the accumulated experience defines the failure rate. A new 'best' equation has been derived for the human error, outcome or failure rate, which allows for calculation and prediction of the probability of human error. We also provide comparisons to the empirical Weibull parameter fitting used in and by conventional reliability engineering and probabilistic safety analysis methods. These new analyses show that arbitrary Weibull fitting parameters and typical empirical hazard function techniques cannot be used to predict the dynamics of human errors and outcomes in the presence of learning. Comparisons of these new insights show agreement with human error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator actions and transient control behavior observed in transients in both plants and simulators. The results demonstrate that the human error probability (HEP) is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the learning hypothesis and the minimum

  4. Measurement network design including traveltime determinations to minimize model prediction uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, G.M.C.M.; Valstar, J.R.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traveltime determinations have found increasing application in the characterization of groundwater systems. No algorithms are available, however, to optimally design sampling strategies including this information type. We propose a first-order methodology to include groundwater age or tracer arrival

  5. Including risk in enterprise decisions in Australia’s riskiest businesses

    OpenAIRE

    Keogh, Mick

    2012-01-01

    This study uses measures of revenue volatility to make comparisons between the business environments experienced by Australian and international farm businesses, and also between Australian farm businesses and businesses in other sectors of the Australian economy. The results indicate that Australian farm business managers operate in a more volatile business environment than is the case for virtually all national agriculture sectors world-wide, and also that businesses involved in Australian ...

  6. Midterm results of endovascular stent graft treatment for descending aortic aneurysms including high-risk patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gussmann, Andreas

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Methods: 21 patients (17 men, 4 women; mean age 66.1 years, range 29-90 years with 15 true aneurysms, and 6 type B-dissections were treated by implantation of a TalentTM Endoluminal Stentgraft System from February 2000 to July 2003. In 3 cases it was necessary to overstent the left subclavian artery, in 1 case to overstent the left common carotid. Results: 2 patients (9.5% died during the first 30 days (1 myocardial infarction, 1 pneumonia. Two patients (9.5% suffered from cerebral ischemia and needed revascularisation. No paraplegia, no stroke occurred. One endoleak required additional stenting. No patient needed conversion. Follow-up, average 25.4 months (range 0-39, was 100% complete. During this another two patients died of myocardial infarction i.e. 9.5% (the above mentioned endoleak, but no late migration were detected in the remaining patients. In all cases the graft lumen stayed patent. Conclusions: Treatment of descending thoracic aortic aneurysm with an endovascular approach has acceptable mortality and morbidity-rates even in high risk patients. Procedural overstenting of the subclavian artery requires subclavian revascularisation in a minority of cases.

  7. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Ayako; Fujimoto, Junzo; Takeda, Daisuke; Yamazaki, Tomoyuki

    2009-01-01

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  8. PDF uncertainties in precision electroweak measurements, including the W mass, in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    Now that the Higgs mass is known all the parameters of the SM are known- but with what accuracy? Precision EW measurements test the self-consistency of the SM- and thus can give hints of BSM physics. Precision measurements of $sin^2\\theta _W$ and the W mass are limited by PDF uncertainties This contribution discusses these uncertainties and what can be done to improve them.

  9. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  10. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  11. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  12. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank

    2006-01-01

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  13. On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  14. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

    2006-01-01

    Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

  15. Constraining dark energy with Hubble parameter measurements: an analysis including future redshift-drift observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Rui-Yun; Zhang, Xin

    2016-01-01

    The nature of dark energy affects the Hubble expansion rate (namely, the expansion history) H(z) by an integral over w(z). However, the usual observables are the luminosity distances or the angular diameter distances, which measure the distance.redshift relation. Actually, the property of dark energy affects the distances (and the growth factor) by a further integration over functions of H(z). Thus, the direct measurements of the Hubble parameter H(z) at different redshifts are of great importance for constraining the properties of dark energy. In this paper, we show how the typical dark energy models, for example, the ΛCDM, wCDM, CPL, and holographic dark energy models, can be constrained by the current direct measurements of H(z) (31 data used in total in this paper, covering the redshift range of z @ element of [0.07, 2.34]). In fact, the future redshift-drift observations (also referred to as the Sandage-Loeb test) can also directly measure H(z) at higher redshifts, covering the range of z @ element of [2, 5]. We thus discuss what role the redshift-drift observations can play in constraining dark energy with the Hubble parameter measurements. We show that the constraints on dark energy can be improved greatly with the H(z) data from only a 10-year observation of redshift drift. (orig.)

  16. Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

    2017-10-01

    Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  17. High-resolution gamma ray attenuation density measurements on mining exploration drill cores, including cut cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, P.-S.; Bourke, A.

    2017-01-01

    Physical property measurements are increasingly important in mining exploration. For density determinations on rocks, one method applicable on exploration drill cores relies on gamma ray attenuation. This non-destructive method is ideal because each measurement takes only 10 s, making it suitable for high-resolution logging. However calibration has been problematic. In this paper we present new empirical, site-specific correction equations for whole NQ and BQ cores. The corrections force back the gamma densities to the "true" values established by the immersion method. For the NQ core caliber, the density range extends to high values (massive pyrite, 5 g/cm3) and the correction is thought to be very robust. We also present additional empirical correction factors for cut cores which take into account the missing material. These "cut core correction factors", which are not site-specific, were established by making gamma density measurements on truncated aluminum cylinders of various residual thicknesses. Finally we show two examples of application for the Abitibi Greenstone Belt in Canada. The gamma ray attenuation measurement system is part of a multi-sensor core logger which also determines magnetic susceptibility, geochemistry and mineralogy on rock cores, and performs line-scan imaging.

  18. Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

    2017-06-30

    This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

  19. Fever in trauma patients: evaluation of risk factors, including traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengualid, Victoria; Talari, Goutham; Rubin, David; Albaeni, Aiham; Ciubotaru, Ronald L; Berger, Judith

    2015-03-01

    The role of fever in trauma patients remains unclear. Fever occurs as a response to release of cytokines and prostaglandins by white blood cells. Many factors, including trauma, can trigger release of these factors. To determine whether (1) fever in the first 48 hours is related to a favorable outcome in trauma patients and (2) fever is more common in patients with head trauma. Retrospective study of trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit for at least 2 days. Data were analyzed by using multivariate analysis. Of 162 patients studied, 40% had fever during the first 48 hours. Febrile patients had higher mortality rates than did afebrile patients. When adjusted for severity of injuries, fever did not correlate with mortality. Neither the incidence of fever in the first 48 hours after admission to the intensive care unit nor the number of days febrile in the unit differed between patients with and patients without head trauma (traumatic brain injury). About 70% of febrile patients did not have a source found for their fever. Febrile patients without an identified source of infection had lower peak white blood cell counts, lower maximum body temperature, and higher minimum platelet counts than did febrile patients who had an infectious source identified. The most common infection was pneumonia. No relationship was found between the presence of fever during the first 48 hours and mortality. Patients with traumatic brain injury did not have a higher incidence of fever than did patients without traumatic brain injury. About 30% of febrile patients had an identifiable source of infection. Further studies are needed to understand the origin and role of fever in trauma patients. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  20. Measuring Tourism Risk Impacts on Destination Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Qi Ruan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study develops and tests an integrated model of the moderated mediation of risks (man-made and natural disasters that explains the associations between the benefits of tourism and the destination image. The study also considers how tourists are influenced by natural disasters and provides empirical evidence to predict the hypothesis models. The results of a study of 635 foreign tourists indicate that the tourism risks of man-made disasters positively influence the tourists’ experienced benefits and feeling experience. Foreign tourists’ risk evaluation may have a positive effect on their benefit and feeling experience and, thus, may link to the destination image. Somewhat as expected, the moderating effect of tourist benefit is found to strengthen the relationship between feeling experience and the destination image. Alternatively, foreign tourists’ feeling experiences foster a positive link between tourism risk and destination image. The implications of the moderated mediation results are discussed.

  1. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  2. pH-Free Measurement of Relative Acidities, Including Isotope Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Charles L

    2017-01-01

    A powerful pH-free multicomponent NMR titration method can measure relative acidities, even of closely related compounds, with excellent accuracy. The history of the method is presented, along with details of its implementation and a comparison with earlier NMR titrations using a pH electrode. Many of its areas of applicability are described, especially equilibrium isotope effects. The advantages of the method, some practical considerations, and potential pitfalls are considered. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  4. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  5. Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

    2014-01-01

    Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

  6. Simultaneous measurements of work function and H‒ density including caesiation of a converter surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristofaro, S.; Friedl, R.; Fantz, U.

    2017-08-01

    Negative hydrogen ion sources rely on the surface conversion of neutral atomic hydrogen and positive hydrogen ions to H-. The efficiency of this process depends on the actual work function of the converter surface. By introducing caesium into the source the work function decreases, enhancing the negative ion yield. In order to study the impact of the work function on the H- surface production at similar conditions to the ones in ion sources for fusion devices like ITER and DEMO, fundamental investigations are performed in a flexible laboratory experiment. The work function of the converter surface can be absolutely measured by photoelectric effect, while a newly installed cavity ring-down spectroscopy system (CRDS) measures the H- density. The CRDS is firstly tested and characterized by investigations on H- volume production. Caesiation of a stainless steel sample is then performed in vacuum and the plasma effect on the Cs layer is investigated also for long plasma-on times. A minimum work function of (1.9±0.1) eV is reached after some minutes of plasma treatment, resulting in a reduction by a value of 0.8 eV compared to vacuum measurements. The H- density above the surface is (2.1±0.5)×1015 m-3. With further plasma exposure of the caesiated surface, the work function increases up to 3.75 eV, due to the impinging plasma particles which gradually remove the Cs layer. As a result, the H- density decreases by a factor of at least 2.

  7. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  8. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  9. Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Podpiera, Jiří; Weill, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 4 (2010), s. 294-306 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * risk-taking * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1189_str_294_306_-_weill-podpiera.pdf

  10. Design and Optimization of Capacitated Supply Chain Networks Including Quality Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystel K. Castillo-Villar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents (1 a novel capacitated model for supply chain network design which considers manufacturing, distribution, and quality costs (named SCND-COQ model and (2 five combinatorial optimization methods, based on nonlinear optimization, heuristic, and metaheuristic approaches, which are used to solve realistic instances of practical size. The SCND-COQ model is a mixed-integer nonlinear problem which can be used at a strategic planning level to design a supply chain network that maximizes the total profit subject to meeting an overall quality level of the final product at minimum costs. The SCND-COQ model computes the quality-related costs for the whole supply chain network considering the interdependencies among business entities. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. These methods allow solving more realistic (capacitated supply chain network design problems including quality-related costs (inspections, rework, opportunity costs, and others within a reasonable computational time.

  11. An assessment of PCB degradation by microogransims including methods for measuring mineralization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadden, C.; Edenborn, H.; Osborne, T.; Holdsworth, G.; Revis, N.

    1990-12-31

    These studies sought to isolate and identify organism(s) from PCB contaminated soil and sediment that degrade PCB; to provide information on the potential of organisms in soil samples taken from a PCB-contaminated area to mineralize or dechlorinate PCB congeners; to assess potential enhancement of PCB biodegradation as a result of nutritional amendment of the samples; and to carry out analyses of successive lysimeter samples to determine whether field treatments have had an effect on the capacity of soil microbes to mineralize PCBS. We have expended considerable effort to validate the fractionation procedure used to assess mineralization and conversion of PCB substrates. The assessment relies on the ability to measure [{sup 14}C]-labeled CO{sub 2} in the presence of potentially volatile [{sup 14}C]-labeled PCB and degradation products to differentiate between volatile and non-volatile [{sup 14}C]-labeled compounds between water-soluble products of metabolism and a mixture of unchanged substrate and other water-insoluble products and between metabolism and loss or non-extractability of the substrate.

  12. An assessment of PCB degradation by microogransims including methods for measuring mineralization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hadden, C.; Edenborn, H.; Osborne, T.; Holdsworth, G.; Revis, N.

    1990-01-01

    These studies sought to isolate and identify organism(s) from PCB contaminated soil and sediment that degrade PCB; to provide information on the potential of organisms in soil samples taken from a PCB-contaminated area to mineralize or dechlorinate PCB congeners; to assess potential enhancement of PCB biodegradation as a result of nutritional amendment of the samples; and to carry out analyses of successive lysimeter samples to determine whether field treatments have had an effect on the capacity of soil microbes to mineralize PCBS. We have expended considerable effort to validate the fractionation procedure used to assess mineralization and conversion of PCB substrates. The assessment relies on the ability to measure [ 14 C]-labeled CO 2 in the presence of potentially volatile [ 14 C]-labeled PCB and degradation products to differentiate between volatile and non-volatile [ 14 C]-labeled compounds between water-soluble products of metabolism and a mixture of unchanged substrate and other water-insoluble products and between metabolism and loss or non-extractability of the substrate

  13. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling Using Applications of Vine Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to explore multiple dependencies. The paper features the use of Regular Vine copulas in an analysis of the co-dependencies of 10 major European Stock Markets, as represented by individual market indices and the composite STOXX 50 index. The sample runs from 2005 to the end of 2013 to permit an exploration of how correlations change indifferent economic circumstances using three different sample periods: pre-GFC (January 2005–July 2007, GFC (July 2007– September 2009, and post-GFC periods (September 2009–December 2013. The empirical results suggest that the dependencies change in a complex manner, and are subject to change in different economic circumstances. One of the attractions of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model co-dependencies. The practical application of Regular Vine metrics is demonstrated via an example of the calculation of the VaR of a portfolio made up of the indices.

  14. Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Kagaayi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index. Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models. RESULTS: We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years, and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years. The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73. The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70. Both models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

  15. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the

  16. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  17. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  18. Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

    2017-08-01

    A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

  19. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  20. Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

    1983-01-01

    Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

  1. Measuring Systematic Risk Using Implicit Beta

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew F. Siegel

    1995-01-01

    A new technology is proposed for estimating the systematic (beta) risk of a firm's stock. Just as the implicit volatility of an asset is revealed by an ordinary call option, the "implicit beta" of a stock would be revealed by the price of an option to exchange shares of stock for shares of a market index. Considerable benefits would accrue to those involved with the theory and practice of finance, if and when these exchange options begin trading, due to the availability of instantaneous, up-t...

  2. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can...... deliver data that uses real consequences and where the context can be varied by the researcher. The approach relies on the controlled manipulation of contexts, similar to what is done in the Stated Choice approach, but builds in actual consequences, similar to the Revealed Preference approach. This paper...

  3. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

  4. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

  5. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

  6. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  7. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  8. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Francesco Monitillo; Marta Leone; Caterina Rizzo; Andrea Passantino; Massimo Iacoviello

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave(QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice.

  9. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  10. A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

    2015-09-22

    A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121-1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms.

  11. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  12. Retrospective cohort study shows that the risks for retinopathy of prematurity included birth age and weight, medical conditions and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Aliaa A; Gomaa, Nancy A S; Awadein, Ahmed R; Al-Hayouti, Huda H; Hegazy, Ahmed I

    2017-12-01

    This study described the characteristics and risk factors of neonates who developed retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) and severe treatable ROP in two Egyptian neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). This retrospective cohort study comprised 108 preterm neonates who were screened for ROP after being admitted to the two NICUs run by Cairo University Hospital from June 2014 to May 2015. Patients were examined using digital fundus photography and indirect ophthalmoscopy was performed if ROP was detected. Retinopathy of prematurity occurred in 75 patients. Late-onset sepsis, ventilation and hypercapnia were independently associated with ROP. Patients who developed severe treatable ROP had a younger gestational age (GA) than patients who did not develop ROP or developed mild or moderate ROP (29 weeks, range 27-33 weeks versus 32 weeks, range 28-36 weeks, p = 0.002) and a lower birthweight (1200 g, range 980-1590 g versus 1460 g, range 770-2475 g, p = 0.029). The risk factors associated with severe treatable ROP included the duration of admission, the duration of incubator oxygen, late-onset sepsis, intraventricular haemorrhage, total parenteral nutrition and the duration of caffeine citrate therapy. This study showed that the risks for ROP were wide-ranging and included GA and weight, medical conditions and treatment. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Clarifying the use of aggregated exposures in multilevel models: self-included vs. self-excluded measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etsuji Suzuki

    Full Text Available Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level and individual (lower level exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure. More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure. In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models.Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models-self-included model and self-excluded model-and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure.Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions.When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model-self-included or self-excluded-is suitable for a given situation

  14. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 2. Quantitative comparison of pathogen risk to other impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimersson, Sara; Harder, Robin; Peters, Gregory M; Svanström, Magdalena

    2014-08-19

    Resource recovery from sewage sludge has the potential to save natural resources, but the potential risks connected to human exposure to heavy metals, organic micropollutants, and pathogenic microorganisms attract stakeholder concern. The purpose of the presented study was to include pathogen risks to human health in life cycle assessment (LCA) of wastewater and sludge management systems, as this is commonly omitted from LCAs due to methodological limitations. Part 1 of this article series estimated the overall pathogen risk for such a system with agricultural use of the sludge, in a way that enables the results to be integrated in LCA. This article (part 2) presents a full LCA for two model systems (with agricultural utilization or incineration of sludge) to reveal the relative importance of pathogen risk in relation to other potential impacts on human health. The study showed that, for both model systems, pathogen risk can constitute an important part (in this study up to 20%) of the total life cycle impacts on human health (expressed in disability adjusted life years) which include other important impacts such as human toxicity potential, global warming potential, and photochemical oxidant formation potential.

  15. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  16. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  17. Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxi Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

  18. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  19. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  20. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

  1. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  2. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  3. Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

    1998-01-01

    The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

  4. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; Van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-01-01

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format.

  5. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  6. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  7. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.

    1996-02-01

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  8. Risk factors for exposure to influenza a viruses, including subtype H5 viruses, in Thai free-grazing ducks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, A L; Kitikoon, P; Schreiner, P J; Singer, R S; Sasipreeyajan, J; Amonsin, A; Gramer, M R; Pakinsee, S; Bender, J B

    2014-08-01

    Free-grazing ducks (FGD) have been associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks and may be a viral reservoir. In July-August 2010, we assessed influenza exposure of Thai FGD and risk factors thereof. Serum from 6254 ducks was analysed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect antibodies to influenza A nucleoprotein (NP), and haemagglutinin H5 protein. Eighty-five per cent (5305 ducks) were seropositive for influenza A. Of the NP-seropositive sera tested with H5 assays (n = 1423), 553 (39%) were H5 ELISA positive and 57 (4%) suspect. Twelve per cent (74 of 610) of H5 ELISA-positive/suspect ducks had H5 titres ≥ 1 : 20 by haemagglutination inhibition. Risk factors for influenza A seropositivity include older age, poultry contact, flock visitors and older purchase age. Study flocks had H5 virus exposure as recently as March 2010, but no HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have been identified in Thailand since 2008, highlighting a need for rigorous FGD surveillance. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

  10. Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

    2017-04-01

    This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

  11. Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikard, H.P.

    2004-01-01

    Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

  12. Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

    2017-10-31

    This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

  13. Evaluation and study of advanced optical contamination, deposition, measurement, and removal techniques. [including computer programs and ultraviolet reflection analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linford, R. M. F.; Allen, T. H.; Dillow, C. F.

    1975-01-01

    A program is described to design, fabricate and install an experimental work chamber assembly (WCA) to provide a wide range of experimental capability. The WCA incorporates several techniques for studying the kinetics of contaminant films and their effect on optical surfaces. It incorporates the capability for depositing both optical and contaminant films on temperature-controlled samples, and for in-situ measurements of the vacuum ultraviolet reflectance. Ellipsometer optics are mounted on the chamber for film thickness determinations, and other features include access ports for radiation sources and instrumentation. Several supporting studies were conducted to define specific chamber requirements, to determine the sensitivity of the measurement techniques to be incorporated in the chamber, and to establish procedures for handling samples prior to their installation in the chamber. A bibliography and literature survey of contamination-related articles is included.

  14. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  15. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  16. Prediction of preterm birth in multiple pregnancies: development of a multivariable model including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Mheen, Lidewij; Schuit, Ewoud; Lim, Arianne C; Porath, Martina M; Papatsonis, Dimitri; Erwich, Jan J; van Eyck, Jim; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Hummel, Piet; Duvekot, Johannes J; Hasaart, Tom H M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Moons, Karl G M; de Groot, Christianne J M; Bruinse, Hein W; van Pampus, Maria G; Mol, Ben W J

    2014-04-01

    To develop a multivariable prognostic model for the risk of preterm delivery in women with multiple pregnancy that includes cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and other variables. We used data from a previous randomized trial. We assessed the association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and time to delivery using multivariable Cox regression modelling. Performance of the final model was assessed for the outcomes of preterm and very preterm delivery using calibration and discrimination measures. We studied 507 women, of whom 270 (53%) delivered models for preterm and very preterm delivery had a c-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75), respectively, and showed good calibration. In women with a multiple pregnancy, the risk of preterm delivery can be assessed with a multivariable model incorporating cervical length and other predictors.

  17. Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

    1985-01-01

    There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

  18. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  19. Health effects of an increased protein intake on kidney function and colorectal cancer risk factors, including the role of animal and plant protein sources – the PREVIEW project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Grith

    intake, including the role of animal and plant protein in pre-diabetic, overweight or obese individuals on health outcomes: markers of kidney function and putative risk factors for colorectal cancer as well as insulin sensitivity and kidney function in healthy individuals. The thesis is based on PREVIEW......, especially plant protein, on insulin sensitivity and kidney function. In paper II, the aim of the study was to assess the effect after one year of a higher protein intake on kidney function, measured by in creatinine clearance. This was investigated in pre-diabetic older adults based on a sub-group of 310...... pre-diabetic individuals included in the PREVIEW RCT. We found that a higher protein intake was associated with a significant increase in urea to creatinine ratio and serum urea after one year. There were no associations between increased protein intake and creatinine clearance, estimated glomerular...

  20. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  1. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  2. Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

    1997-01-01

    A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

  3. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeighami, E.A.; Walsh, P.J.; Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/10 6 /rad-year to 6/10 6 /rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  4. University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

    2018-04-01

    Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

  5. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  6. Knowledge of Risk Factors and Preventive Measures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study was to elicit the knowledge of risk factors and preventive measures of hypertension among Child Bearing Mothers (CBMs) in Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. The study adopted the descriptive research design. Specifically, three objectives with three corresponding research ...

  7. Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

  8. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  9. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  10. Including pork in the Mediterranean diet for an Australian population: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial assessing cardiovascular risk and cognitive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alexandra T; Davis, Courtney R; Dyer, Kathryn A; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Woodman, Richard J; Keage, Hannah A D; Murphy, Karen J

    2017-12-22

    The Mediterranean diet is characterised by the high consumption of extra virgin olive oil, fruits, vegetables, grains, legumes and nuts; moderate consumption of fish, poultry, eggs and dairy; and low consumption of red meat and sweets. Cross sectional, longitudinal and intervention studies indicate that a Mediterranean diet may be effective for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and dementia. However, previous research suggests that an Australian population may find red meat restrictions difficult, which could affect long term sustainability of the diet. This paper outlines the protocol for a randomised controlled trial that will assess the cardiovascular and cognitive benefits of a Mediterranean diet modified to include 2-3 weekly serves of fresh, lean pork. A 24-week cross-over design trial will compare a modified Mediterranean diet with a low-fat control diet in at-risk men and women. Participants will follow each of the two diets for 8 weeks, with an 8-week washout period separating interventions. Home measured systolic blood pressure will be the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcomes will include body mass index, body composition, fasting blood lipids, C-reactive protein, fasting plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, erythrocyte fatty acids, cognitive function, psychological health and well-being, and dementia risk. To our knowledge this research is the first to investigate whether an alternate source of protein can be included in the Mediterranean diet to increase sustainability and feasibility for a non-Mediterranean population. Findings will be significant for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and age-related decline, and may inform individuals, clinicians and public health policy. ACTRN12616001046493 . Registered 5 August 2016.

  11. A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

    2015-01-01

    A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cance...

  12. Improving Supply Chain Risk Management by Introducing Performance Measurement Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ryding, Anna; Sahlin, Jonatan

    2013-01-01

    Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a topic that gains more and more interest from both the academic and practitioner’s perspective. The reason for this is the increased complexity in the global supply chain (SC) networks and many managers do not realize the risks they build in their SC by the continuous search to cut cost and decrease tied up capital. One problem with SCRM is that it is hard to measure the performance of it and if it is really beneficial to work with it. The objective for...

  13. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  14. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  15. Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P

    2015-04-01

    Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  16. Technical standards and guidelines: prenatal screening for Down syndrome that includes first-trimester biochemistry and/or ultrasound measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomaki, Glenn E; Lee, Jo Ellen S; Canick, Jacob A; McDowell, Geraldine A; Donnenfeld, Alan E

    2009-09-01

    This statement is intended to augment the current general ACMG Standards and Guidelines for Clinical Genetics Laboratories and to address guidelines specific to first-trimester screening for Down syndrome. The aim is to provide the laboratory the necessary information to ensure accurate and reliable Down syndrome screening results given a screening protocol (e.g., combined first trimester and integrated testing). Information about various test combinations and their expected performance are provided, but other issues such as availability of reagents, patient interest in early test results, access to open neural tube defect screening, and availability of chorionic villus sampling are all contextual factors in deciding which screening protocol(s) will be selected by individual health care providers. Individual laboratories are responsible for meeting the quality assurance standards described by the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Act, the College of American Pathologists, and other regulatory agencies, with respect to appropriate sample documentation, assay validation, general proficiency, and quality control measures. These guidelines address first-trimester screening that includes ultrasound measurement and interpretation of nuchal translucency thickness and protocols that combine markers from both the first and second trimesters. Laboratories can use their professional judgment to make modification or additions.

  17. Technological study about a disposal measures of low-level radioactive waste including uranium and long-half-life radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugaya, Toshikatsu; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Sakai, Akihiro; Sakamoto, Yoshiaki; Sasaki, Toshihisa; Nakamura, Yasuo

    2017-02-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) performed the technical studies contributed for the disposal measures of uranium-bearing waste with low concentration and intermediate depth disposal-based waste occurring from the process of the nuclear fuel cycle. (1) Study of the trench disposal of uranium-bearing waste. As a part of the study of disposal measures of the uranium-bearing waste, we carried out the safety assessment (exposure dose assessment) and derived the upper limit of radioactivity concentration of uranium which was allowed to be included in radioactive waste for trench disposal. (2) Preliminary study for the expansion of material applied to clearance in uranium-bearing waste. Currently, the clearance level of uranium handling facilities was derived from the radioactivity concentration of uranium corresponding to dose criterion about the exposure pathways of the reuse and recycle of metal. Therefore, we preliminarily evaluated whether metal and concrete were able to be applied to clearance by the method of the undergrounding disposal. (3) Study of the concentration limitation scenarios for the intermediate depth disposal-based waste. We carried out dose assessment of intermediate depth disposal of radioactive waste generated from JAEA about radioactive concentration limitation scenarios of which the concept was shown by the study team in Nuclear Regulation Authority. Based on the results, we discussed whether the waste was applied to radioactive waste conforming to concept of intermediate depth disposal. (author)

  18. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  19. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giustino Parruti

    Full Text Available Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients.HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II, Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20. Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5% attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6% attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4% had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5% had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0% died due to such events (n = 4 or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression and CPs (logistic regression. At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001, current smoking (p = 0.019 and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013 were independently associated with vascular events.In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs and vascular events. Such results are preliminary and require

  20. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Richmond

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n=1,040 at the ages of 11–15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2 and WC (cm were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese were created using validated international (BMI and national (WC cut-off points. A Poisson regression analysis controlling for relevant covariates (sex, previous injury, sport participation, intervention group, and aerobic fitness level estimated the risk of sport injury [incidence rate ratios (IRR with 95% confidence intervals (CI]. Results. There was an increased risk of time loss injury (IRR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.01–8.04 and knee injury (IRR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.00–6.94 in adolescents that were overweight/obese; however, increases in injury risk for all injury and lower extremity injury were not statistically significant. Estimates suggested a greater risk of time loss injury [IRR = 1.63 (95% CI: 0.93–2.47] in adolescents with high measures of WC. Conclusions. There is an increased risk of time loss injury and knee injury in overweight/obese adolescents. Sport injury prevention training programs should include strategies that target all known risk factors for injury.

  1. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  2. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  3. Reduction of risk factors for nuclear power plants due to personnel psychological data, including attitude, morale and motivation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramova, V.N.

    1997-01-01

    The possibilities of reduction of risk factors for personnel activity and performance due to attitudes, motivation and moral are presented. Methodology and experience in psychology, sociopsychology, psychophisiology and sociology mistake sources are discussed. Authorization to job, stages of estimating occupational fitness and modules system of personnel psychological and sociopsychological training probabilistic are explained. (author). 3 figs, 1 tab

  4. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  6. Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

    2017-01-01

    A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

  7. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  8. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  9. Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushley, Stephanie; Carter, Matthew; Chiou, Charles; Farmer, Richard; Haywood, Kevin; Pototzky, Anthony, Jr.; White, Adam; Winker, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

  10. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe M. King

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of

  11. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

  12. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

  13. Improving ecological risk assessment by including bioavailability into species sensitivity distributions: An example for plants exposed to nickel in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semenzin, Elena; Temminghoff, Erwin J.M.; Marcomini, Antonio

    2007-01-01

    The variability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) due to contaminant bioavailability in soil was explored by using nickel as metal of concern. SSDs of toxicity test results of Avena sativa L. originating from different soils and expressed as total content and available (0.01 M CaCl 2 ) extractable concentration were compared to SSDs for terrestrial plants derived from literature toxicity data. Also the 'free' nickel (Ni 2+ ) concentration was calculated and compared. The results demonstrated that SSDs based on total nickel content highly depend on the experimental conditions set up for toxicity testing (i.e. selected soil and pH value) and thus on metal bioavailability in soil, resulting in an unacceptable uncertainty for ecological risk estimation. The use in SSDs of plant toxicity data expressed as 0.01 M CaCl 2 extractable metal strongly reduced the uncertainty in the SSD curve and thus can improve the ERA procedure remarkably by taking bioavailability into account. - The use of bioavailability toxicity data can improve species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA)

  14. A comparison of the risk measures between VHTR and LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok-Jung; Yang, Joon-Eon; Lee, Won-Jea

    2007-01-01

    Because the safety characteristics of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) are different to that of light water reactors (LWRs), it is necessary to develop an adequate probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology in order to perform a risk assessment. The inherent safety features of the VHTR are (1) simplified safety functions (2) the absence of the large release of radioactive materials such as a severe accident in LWRs. The PSA methodology for LWRs cannot be directly applied in a VHTR PSA. This paper proposes a PSA methodology for a VHTR. The essential point of the proposed methodology is to define end states of accident sequences in order to establish the risk measures for a VHTR PSA. This paper compares them with that for LWRs to discuss the differences of them

  15. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Richmond, Sarah A.; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Doyle-Baker, Patricia K.; Macpherson, Alison; Emery, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n = 1,040) at the ages of 11?15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2) and WC (cm) were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese) were created using validated internati...

  16. In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing: A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    field and microcosms than they do under laboratory test conditions. In the case of tributyltin ( TBT ) exposures in San Diego Bay, he found that...TECHNICAL REPORT 1986 September 2009 In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in...Pacific TECHNICAL REPORT 1986 September 2009 In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in

  17. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  18. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, S B; Takken, T; Prinsen, E C; Wittink, H

    2012-05-01

    To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio and body fat percentage were considered the anthropometric adiposity measures. Primary CVD risk factors were: systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose. Two independent reviewers performed abstract, full text and data selection. Twenty articles were included describing 21,618 males and 24,139 females. Waist circumference had the strongest correlation with all CVD risk factors for both men and women, except for HDL and LDL in men. When comparing BMI with waist circumference, the latter showed significantly better correlations to CVD risk factors, except for diastolic blood pressure in women and HDL and total cholesterol in men. We recommend the use of waist circumference in clinical and research studies above other anthropometric adiposity measures, especially compared with BMI, when evaluating CVD risk factors.

  19. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  20. Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

  1. Including the effects of filamentous bulking sludge during the simulation of wastewater treatment plants using a risk assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores Alsina, Xavier; Comas, J.; Rodriquez-Roda, I.

    2009-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate how including the occurrence of filamentous bulking sludge in a secondary clarifier model will affect the predicted process performance during the simulation of WWTPs. The IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) is hereby used as a simulation...... are automatically changed during the simulation by modifying the settling model parameters to mimic the effect of growth of filamentous bacteria. The simulation results demonstrate that including effects of filamentous bulking in the secondary clarifier model results in a more realistic plant performance...

  2. 76 FR 81004 - Imposition of Nonproliferation Measures Against Foreign Persons, Including a Ban on U.S...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice: 7741] Imposition of Nonproliferation Measures Against Foreign... Nonproliferation, Department of State. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: A determination has been made that a number of foreign entities and one foreign person have engaged in activities that warrant the imposition of measures...

  3. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  4. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  5. On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ararat, Cagin

    particular, it is shown that a shortfall risk measure can be written as an intersection over a family of divergence risk measures indexed by a scalarization parameter. Examples include the multivariate versions of the entropic risk measure and the average value at risk. In the second part, Aumann integrals of set-valued functions on a measurable space are viewed as set-valued functionals and a Daniell-Stone type characterization theorem is proved for such functionals. More precisely, it is shown that a functional that maps measurable set-valued functions into a certain complete lattice of subsets of Rm can be written as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure if and only if the functional is (1) additive and (2) positively homogeneous, (3) it preserves decreasing limits, (4) it maps halfspace-valued functions to halfspaces, and (5) it maps shifted cone-valued functions to shifted cones. While the first three properties already exist in the classical Daniell-Stone theorem for the Lebesgue integral, the last two properties are peculiar to the set-valued framework and they suffice to complement the first three properties to identify a set-valued functional as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure.

  6. Randomized Comparison of Isosorbide Mononitrate and PGE2 Gel for Cervical Ripening at Term including High Risk Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Agarwal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. Prostaglandin E2 is the most commonly used drug for cervical ripening prior to labour induction. However, there are concerns regarding uterine tachysystole and nonreassuring fetal heart (N-RFH. Isosorbide mononitrate (IMN has been used successfully for cervical ripening. The present study was conducted to compare the two drugs for cervical ripening at term in hospital. Methods. Two hundred women with term pregnancies referred for induction of labour with Bishop score less than 6 were randomly allocated to receive either 40 mg IMN tablet vaginally (n=100 or 0.5 mg PGE2 gel intracervically (n=100. Adverse effects, progress, and outcomes of labour were assessed. Results. PGE2 group had significantly higher postripening mean Bishop score, shorter time from start of medication to vaginal delivery (13.37 ± 10.67 hours versus 30.78 ± 17.29 hours, and shorter labour-delivery interval compared to IMN group (4.53 ± 3.97 hours versus 7.34 ± 5.51 hours. However, PGE2 group also had significantly higher incidence of uterine tachysystole (15% and N-RFH (11% compared to none in IMN group, as well as higher caesarean section rate (27% versus 17%. Conclusions. Cervical ripening with IMN was less effective than PGE2 but resulted in fewer adverse effects and was safer especially in high risk pregnancies.

  7. Major histocompatibility complex harbors widespread genotypic variability of non-additive risk of rheumatoid arthritis including epistasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wen-Hua; Bowes, John; Plant, Darren; Viatte, Sebastien; Yarwood, Annie; Massey, Jonathan; Worthington, Jane; Eyre, Stephen

    2016-04-25

    Genotypic variability based genome-wide association studies (vGWASs) can identify potentially interacting loci without prior knowledge of the interacting factors. We report a two-stage approach to make vGWAS applicable to diseases: firstly using a mixed model approach to partition dichotomous phenotypes into additive risk and non-additive environmental residuals on the liability scale and secondly using the Levene's (Brown-Forsythe) test to assess equality of the residual variances across genotype groups per marker. We found widespread significant (P 5e-05) vGWAS signals within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) across all three study cohorts of rheumatoid arthritis. We further identified 10 epistatic interactions between the vGWAS signals independent of the MHC additive effects, each with a weak effect but jointly explained 1.9% of phenotypic variance. PTPN22 was also identified in the discovery cohort but replicated in only one independent cohort. Combining the three cohorts boosted power of vGWAS and additionally identified TYK2 and ANKRD55. Both PTPN22 and TYK2 had evidence of interactions reported elsewhere. We conclude that vGWAS can help discover interacting loci for complex diseases but require large samples to find additional signals.

  8. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  9. 49 CFR 23.25 - What measures must recipients include in their ACDBE programs to ensure nondiscriminatory...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN... race-neutral measures you can implement: (1) Locating and identifying ACDBEs and other small businesses...) Ensuring that competitors for concession opportunities are informed during pre-solicitation meetings about...

  10. The prevalence and significance of a short QT interval in 18,825 low-risk individuals including athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhutia, Harshil; Malhotra, Aneil; Parpia, Sameer; Gabus, Vincent; Finocchiaro, Gherardo; Mellor, Greg; Merghani, Ahmed; Millar, Lynne; Narain, Rajay; Sheikh, Nabeel; Behr, Elijah R; Papadakis, Michael; Sharma, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    The short QT syndrome is a cardiac channelopathy characterised by accelerated repolarisation which manifests as a short QT interval on the ECG. The definition of a short QT interval is debated, ranging from <390 to ≤320 ms, and its clinical significance in healthy young individuals is unknown. We assessed the prevalence and medium-term significance of an isolated short QT interval in a diverse young British population. Between 2005 and 2013, 18 825 apparently healthy people aged 14-35 years underwent cardiovascular evaluation with history, physical examination and ECG. QT intervals were measured by cardiologists using 4 recommended guidelines (Seattle 2013, Heart Rhythm Society 2013, European Society of Cardiology 2010 and American Heart Association 2009). The prevalence of a short QT interval was 0.1% (26 patients, ≤320 ms), 0.2% (44 patients, ≤330 ms), 7.9% (1478 patients, <380 ms), 15.8% (2973 patients, <390 ms). Male gender and Afro-Caribbean ethnicity had the strongest association with short QT intervals. Athletes had shorter QT intervals than non-athletes but athletic status did not predict short QT intervals. Individuals with short QT intervals ≤320 ms did not report syncope or a sinister family history, and during a follow-up period of 5.3±1.2 years, there were no deaths in this group. The prevalence of a short QT interval depends on the recommended cut-off value. Even at values ≤320 ms, there was an excellent medium-term prognosis among 14 people followed. We conclude that a definition of ≤320 ms is realistic to prevent overdiagnosis and excessive investigations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  11. Stability enhancement of an atomic force microscope for long-term force measurement including cantilever modification for whole cell deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weafer, P. P.; McGarry, J. P.; van Es, M. H.; Kilpatrick, J. I.; Ronan, W.; Nolan, D. R.; Jarvis, S. P.

    2012-09-01

    Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is widely used in the study of both morphology and mechanical properties of living cells under physiologically relevant conditions. However, quantitative experiments on timescales of minutes to hours are generally limited by thermal drift in the instrument, particularly in the vertical (z) direction. In addition, we demonstrate the necessity to remove all air-liquid interfaces within the system for measurements in liquid environments, which may otherwise result in perturbations in the measured deflection. These effects severely limit the use of AFM as a practical tool for the study of long-term cell behavior, where precise knowledge of the tip-sample distance is a crucial requirement. Here we present a readily implementable, cost effective method of minimizing z-drift and liquid instabilities by utilizing active temperature control combined with a customized fluid cell system. Long-term whole cell mechanical measurements were performed using this stabilized AFM by attaching a large sphere to a cantilever in order to approximate a parallel plate system. An extensive examination of the effects of sphere attachment on AFM data is presented. Profiling of cantilever bending during substrate indentation revealed that the optical lever assumption of free ended cantilevering is inappropriate when sphere constraining occurs, which applies an additional torque to the cantilevers "free" end. Here we present the steps required to accurately determine force-indentation measurements for such a scenario. Combining these readily implementable modifications, we demonstrate the ability to investigate long-term whole cell mechanics by performing strain controlled cyclic deformation of single osteoblasts.

  12. Measuring Systemic Risk of Banking in Indonesia: Conditional Value at Risk Model Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjum Muharam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Systemic risk is a risk of collapse of the financial system that would cause the financial system is not functioning properly. Measurement of systemic risk in the financial institutions, especially banks are crucial, because banks are highly vulnerable to financial crisis. In this study, to estimate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR used quantile regression. Samples in this study of 9 banks have total assets of the largest in Indonesia. Testing the correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR in this study using Spearman correlation and Kendall's Tau. There are five banks that have a significant correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR, meanwhile four others banks in the sample did not have a significant correlation. However, the correlation coefficient is below 0.50, which indicates that there is a weak correlation between VaR and CoVaR.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5296

  13. Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, C.

    2010-01-01

    In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).

  14. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  15. Evaluation, including effects of storage and repeated freezing and thawing, of a method for measurement of urinary creatinine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, A H; Hansen, Åse Marie; Kristiansen, J

    2003-01-01

    The aims of this study were to elucidate to what extent storage and repeated freezing and thawing influenced the concentration of creatinine in urine samples and to evaluate the method for determination of creatinine in urine. The creatinine method was based on the well-known Jaffe's reaction...... and measured on a COBAS Mira autoanalyser from Roche. The main findings were that samples for analysis of creatinine should be kept at a temperature of -20 degrees C or lower and frozen and thawed only once. The limit of detection, determined as 3 x SD of 20 determinations of a sample at a low concentration (6...

  16. Quality assessment and consistency check of measured nuclear data up to 20 MeV including the range of resonances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boedy, Z.T.

    1984-09-01

    This is the final report of a research contract with the IAEA. The object is the compilation and evaluation of all the data on (n,t) and (n,3He) reactions cross-sections, respectively. The main results of the research are given (some discrepancies in the experimental data; analytic formulas for an empirical description of the data, separately for the even and odd nuclei with z>20; methods to extrapolate to energies where measurements are missing; mass regions where data are needed), and publications by the authors with the detailed results are quoted

  17. Risk measures and their applications in asset management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); B. Kaynar; N. N. Nilay (Nilay)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral approaches exist to model decision making under risk, where risk can be broadly defined as the effect of variability of random outcomes. One of the main approaches in the practice of decision making under risk uses mean-risk models; one such well-known is the classical Markowitz

  18. Predictors of Social Skills for Preschool Children at Risk for ADHD: The Relationship between Direct and Indirect Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Lisa B.; Shapiro, Edward S.; DuPaul, George J.; Lutz, J. Gary; Kern, Lee

    2011-01-01

    The relationship between direct and indirect measurements of social skills and social problem behaviors for preschool children at risk for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) was examined. Participants included 137 preschool children, aged 3 to 5 years, at risk for ADHD, who were participating in a larger study examining the effects of…

  19. Group differences in risk across three domains using an expanded measure of sexual orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loosier, Penny S; Dittus, Patricia J

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to highlight associations between sexual orientation and risk outcomes in late adolescence and early adulthood using an expanded measure of sexual orientation. Recent data indicate higher levels of risk behavior in a newly identified population, mostly heterosexuals, as compared to heterosexuals. Comparisons among groups using an expanded measure of sexual orientation such as this, however, often do not include all possible groups or may restrict comparisons between groups. Data were derived from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health); participants identified as heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, mostly gay, or gay. Main risk outcomes were parental mistreatment, home displacement, thoughts of suicide, depressive symptoms, frequency of drinking, and delinquency. A priori planned comparisons examined differences between: (a) heterosexual vs. mostly heterosexual, (b) gay vs. mostly gay, (c) mostly heterosexual vs. bisexual, (d) mostly gay vs. bisexual, (e) mostly heterosexual vs. mostly gay, (f) heterosexual vs. gay, (g) heterosexual vs. bisexual, and (h) gay vs. bisexual. Mostly heterosexual youth were at significantly greater risk than heterosexual youth on all outcomes but did not differ from bisexual or mostly gay youth. Heterosexuals were at lower risk as compared to mostly heterosexuals and bisexuals. This study provides further evidence of differential risk associations for sexual minorities.

  20. Validation of Measured Damping Trends for Flight-Like Vehicle Panel/Equipment including a Range of Cable Harness Assemblies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew M.; Davis, R. Benjamin; LaVerde, Bruce T.; Fulcher, Clay W.; Jones, Douglas C.; Waldon, James M.; Craigmyle, Benjamin B.

    2012-01-01

    This validation study examines the effect on vibroacoustic response resulting from the installation of cable bundles on a curved orthogrid panel. Of interest is the level of damping provided by the installation of the cable bundles and whether this damping could be potentially leveraged in launch vehicle design. The results of this test are compared with baseline acoustic response tests without cables. Damping estimates from the measured response data are made using a new software tool that leverages a finite element model of the panel in conjunction with advanced optimization techniques. While the full test series is not yet complete, the first configuration of cable bundles that was assessed effectively increased the viscous critical damping fraction of the system by as much as 0.02 in certain frequency ranges.

  1. Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

  2. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and development of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients included in the Spanish ABPM registry: the CARDIORISC Event study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Sierra, Alejandro; Banegas, José R; Segura, Julián; Gorostidi, Manuel; Ruilope, Luis M

    2012-04-01

    Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to conventional BP measurement in predicting outcome, with baseline 24-h, daytime and night-time absolute values, as well as relative nocturnal decline, as powerful determinants of prognosis. We aimed to evaluate ABPM estimates on the appearance of cardiovascular events and mortality in a cohort of high-risk treated hypertensive patients. A total of 2115 treated hypertensive patients with high or very high added risk were evaluated by means of office and 24-h ABPM. Cardiovascular events and mortality were assessed after a median follow-up of 4 years. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients (12.7%) experienced a primary event (nonfatal coronary or cerebrovascular event, heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) and 114 died (45 from cardiovascular causes). In a multiple Cox regression model, and after adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk and office BP, night-time SBP predicted cardiovascular events [hazard ratio for each SD increase: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.59]. Values above 130 mmHg increased the risk by 52% in comparison to values less than 115 mmHg. In addition to clinical determinants of cardiovascular risk and conventional BP, ABPM performed during treatment adds prognostic significance on the development of cardiovascular events in high-risk hypertensive patients. Among different ABPM-derived values, night-time SBP is the most potent predictor of outcome.

  3. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  4. Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

  5. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

  6. Nonlinear method for including the mass uncertainty of standards and the system measurement errors in the fitting of calibration curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pickles, W.L.; McClure, J.W.; Howell, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    A sophisticated nonlinear multiparameter fitting program was used to produce a best fit calibration curve for the response of an x-ray fluorescence analyzer to uranium nitrate, freeze dried, 0.2% accurate, gravimetric standards. The program is based on unconstrained minimization subroutine, VA02A. The program considers the mass values of the gravimetric standards as parameters to be fit along with the normal calibration curve parameters. The fitting procedure weights with the system errors and the mass errors in a consistent way. The resulting best fit calibration curve parameters reflect the fact that the masses of the standard samples are measured quantities with a known error. Error estimates for the calibration curve parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the ''Chi-Squared Matrix'' or from error relaxation techniques. It was shown that nondispersive XRFA of 0.1 to 1 mg freeze-dried UNO 3 can have an accuracy of 0.2% in 1000 s. 5 figures

  7. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage

  8. BER-3.2 report: Methodology for justification and optimization of protective measures including a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedemann Jensen, P.; Sinkko, K.; Walmod-Larsen, O.; Gjoerup, H.L.; Salo, A.

    1992-07-01

    This report is a part of the Nordic BER-3 project's work to propose and harmonize Nordic intervention levels for countermeasures in case of nuclear accidents. This report focuses on the methodology for justification and optimization of protective measures in case of a reactor accident situation with a large release of fission products to the environment. The down-wind situation is very complicated. The dose to the exposed society is almost unpredictable. The task of the radiation protection experts: To give advice to the decision makers on averted doses by the different actions at hand in the situation - is complicated. That of the decision makers is certainly more: On half of the society they represent, they must decide if they wish to follow the advices from their radiation protection experts or if they wish to add further arguments - economical or political (or personal) - into their considerations before their decisions are taken. Two analysis methods available for handling such situations: cost-benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility analysis are described in principle and are utilized in a case study: The impacts of a Chernobyl-like accident on the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea are analyzed with regard to the acute consequences. The use of the intervention principles found in international guidance (IAEA 91, ICRP 91), which can be summarized as the principles of justification, optimization and avoidance of unacceptable doses, are described. How to handle more intangible factors of a psychological or political character is indicated. (au) (6 tabs., 3 ills., 17 refs.)

  9. Calculation of extracted ion beam particle distribution including within-extractor collisions from H-alpha Doppler shift measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae-Seong; Kim, Jinchoon; In, Sang Ryul; Jeong, Seung Ho

    2008-01-01

    Prototype long pulse ion sources are being developed and tested toward the goal of a deuterium beam extraction of 120 keV/65 A. The latest prototype source consists of a magnetic bucket plasma generator and a four-grid copper accelerator system with multicircular apertures of 568 holes. To measure the angular divergence and the ion species of the ion beam, an optical multichannel analyzer (OMA) system for a Doppler-shifted H-alpha lights was set up at the end of a gas-cell neutralizer. But the OMA data are very difficult to analyze due to a large background level on the top of the three energy peaks (coming from H + , H 2 + , and H 3 + ). These background spectra in the OMA signals seem to result from partially accelerated ion beams in the accelerator. Extracted ions could undergo a premature charge exchange as the accelerator column tends to have a high hydrogen partial pressure from the unused gas from the plasma generator, resulting in a continuous background of partially accelerated beam particles at the accelerator exit. This effect is calculated by accounting for all the possible atomic collision processes and numerically summing up three ion species across the accelerator column. The collection of all the atomic reaction cross sections and the numerical summing up will be presented. The result considerably depends on the background pressure and the ion beam species ratio (H + , H 2 + , and H 3 + ). This effect constitutes more than 20% of the whole particle distribution. And the energy distribution of those suffering from collisions is broad and shows a broad maximum in the vicinity of the half and the third energy region

  10. Measures of Body Size and Composition and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karas, Maria G.; Yee, Laura M.; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; Ix, Joachim H.; Zieman, Susan J.; Siscovick, David S.; Gottdiener, John S.; Rosenberg, Michael A.; Kronmal, Richard A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Kizer, Jorge R.

    2016-01-01

    Various anthropometric measures, including height, have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). This raises questions about the appropriateness of using ratio measures such as body mass index (BMI), which contains height squared in its denominator, in the evaluation of AF risk. Among older adults, the optimal anthropometric approach to risk stratification of AF remains uncertain. Anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance measures were obtained from 4,276 participants (mean age = 72.4 years) free of cardiovascular disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up (1989–2008), 1,050 cases of AF occurred. BMI showed a U-shaped association, whereas height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fat mass, and fat-free mass were linearly related to incident AF. The strongest adjusted association occurred for height (per each 1-standard-deviation increment, hazard ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.51), which exceeded all other measures, including weight (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.29). Combined assessment of log-transformed weight and height showed regression coefficients that departed from the 1 to −2 ratio inherent in BMI, indicating a loss of predictive information. Risk estimates for AF tended to be stronger for hip circumference than for waist circumference and for fat-free mass than for fat mass, which was explained largely by height. These findings highlight the prominent role of body size and the inadequacy of BMI as determinants of AF in older adults. PMID:27188936

  11. On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

  12. Ventilator associated pneumonia: risk factors and preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, J L; Lobo, S; Struelens, M

    2001-11-01

    Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common nosocomial infection associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Various risk factors for VAP have been identified and include the duration of ICU stay and of mechanical ventilation, a diagnosis of trauma, and severity of illness. Knowledge of these factors can promote early diagnosis and hence treatment. In addition to simple, but very effective, basic hygiene, different preventative strategies have been suggested, and can be divided into those that aim to limit airway colonization, and those that improve host defense mechanisms. Of the former, non-invasive ventilation is effective but not always applicable or available, nursing the patient in the semi-recumbent position is also associated with a reduced incidence of VAP but carries its own problems, stress ulcer prophylaxis remains controversial, and selective digestive decontamination is probably only relevant to certain subgroups of patients. Methods to improve host defense include early nutrition. Immunostimulatory therapies, such as interferon and granulocyte colony stimulating factor, require further research to confirm their place in the prevention or management of VAP.

  13. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke: the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline; Kee, Frank; Palmieri, Luigi; Ferrario, Marco M; Montaye, Michèle; Amouyel, Philippe; Dallongeville, Jean

    2011-10-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass index (BMI). The association of BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR with stroke was assessed in 31,201 men and 23,516 women, free of vascular disease at baseline, from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 1130 strokes were recorded. Relative risks (95% CI) were calculated by Cox regression after stratification for center and adjustment for age, smoking, educational level, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and BMI and model fit was assessed using log-likelihoods. BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke in men. After full adjustment including BMI, the relative risks for stroke remained significant for WC (1.19 [1.02 to 1.34] per 1 SD increase in WC), WHR (1.14 [1.03 to 1.26]), and WHtR (1.50 [1.28 to 1.77]). Among women, the extent of the associations with stroke risk was similar for WHtR (1.31 [1.04 to 1.65]), WC (1.19 [0.96 to 1.47]), and WHR (1.08 [0.97 to 1.22]). Further analyses by World Health Organization obesity categories showed that WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke also in lean men and women (BMI<25 kg/m2), independently of confounders, cardiovascular risk factors, and BMI. Indicators of abdominal adiposity, especially WHtR, are more strongly associated with stroke risk than BMI. These results emphasize the importance of measuring abdominal adiposity, especially in lean subjects.

  14. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is

  15. Awareness of Measures for Reducing Health Risk of Using Low-Quality Irrigation Water in Morogoro, Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mayilla, Winfrida; Magayane, Flavianus; Konradsen, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods includ...... that health education targeting at specific exposed group and their social-demographic characteristics is the potential measure in raising awareness of the potential health risk reduction measures when using low-quality irrigation water in irrigated agriculture.......The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods included...... a questionnaire survey with 60 farmers, 60 vegetable traders, and 70 consumers and four focus group discussions. General results show a low level of awareness of the health risk reduction measures in using low-quality irrigation water in all respondents’ categories. However, health protection measures...

  16. Measuring adolescents’ exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L.; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C.; Arseneault, Louise

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents mutlilevel findings on adolescents’ victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severe victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent amongst children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was re-victimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  17. Temporal patterns of lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - consequences to remediation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2004-01-01

    Studies of uranium miners conducted since the late 1960s demonstrated that the risk depends on cumulated exposure in terms of working level months (WLM) integrating both duration of exposure and concentration of radon. It has been also demonstrated that the risk from radon decreases with time since exposure. The present analysis of temporal changes of relative risk is based on a model where the total individual exposure is partitioned into components in dependence on time. Exposure to radon is studied in a cohort of 9411 Czech uranium miners with 766 cases of lung cancer and in a residential study of 11 803 inhabitants exposed to radon in houses with 218 cases. In addition, temporal patterns of the risk from smoking are analyzed in a case-control study of patients from a major Prague hospital including 566 cases. For both carcinogens, the relative risk decreases with time since exposure. The risk from exposures before 20-34 years is 36% and 34% in comparison to period 5-19 for smoking and radon, respectively. The effect of exposures from more distant periods 35-49 is only 5% for smoking and 14% for radon in comparison to 5-19 years. This substantial decrease of relative risk with time may contribute to a better evaluation of remediation measures taken in houses and in the cost effectiveness of remediation. Combined effect of smoking and radon is studied by a nested case-control approach including 434 cases and 962 controls. Analyses of the joint effects of smoking and radon, conducted in the occupational and the residential studies, suggest a sub-multiplicative interaction. The relative risk from radon among non-smokers is higher by a factor of 2-3 in comparison to smokers, suggesting different patterns of lung deposition and clearance among smokers and non-smokers. (author)

  18. A systematic review of risk factors associated with accidental falls, outcome measures and interventions to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Laura A; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2015-01-01

    To systematically review peer-reviewed literature pertaining to risk factors, outcome measures and interventions managing fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion from databases including PubMed/Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, Scopus, Consumer Health Complete and Web of Science. Selected studies involved a description of fall related risk factors, outcomes to assess fall risk and intervention studies describing protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Studies were selected by two reviewers and consultation provided by a third reviewer. The most frequently cited risk factors/characteristics associated with falls included: wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. The majority of the outcomes were found to evaluate seated postural control. One intervention study was identified describing a protocol targeting specific problems of individual participants. A global fall prevention program was not identified. Several risk factors associated with falls were identified and must be understood by clinicians to better serve their clients. To improve objective assessment, a comprehensive outcome assessment specific to non-ambulatory adults is needed. Finally, additional research is needed to examine the impact of structured protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Falls are a common health concern for non-ambulatory adults. Risk factors commonly associated with falls include wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. Limited outcome measures are available to assess fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Clinicians must be aware of the known risk factors and provide comprehensive education to their clients on the potential for falls. Additional research is needed to develop and evaluate protocols to clinically manage fall

  19. Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

    1999-06-01

    Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

  20. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Birth weight and long-term overweight risk: systematic review and a meta-analysis including 643,902 persons from 66 studies and 26 countries globally.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Schellong

    Full Text Available Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis.Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (p4,000 g was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.55-1.77. Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500-4,000 g as reference category (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.84, and OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.45-1.77, respectively. Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.43-2.67.Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy, might therefore be a promising strategy of genuine overweight prevention, globally.

  2. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2018-05-09

    Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  3. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  4. Efficacy of anthropometric measures for identifying cardiovascular disease risk in adolescents: review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenauer, Michael; Wheatley, Sean D; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Duncan, Michael J; Cobayashi, Fernanda; Berg, Gabriela; Musso, Carla; Graffigna, Mabel; Soutelo, Jimena; Bovet, Pascal; Kollias, Anastasios; Stergiou, George S; Grammatikos, Evangelos; Griffiths, Claire; Ingle, Lee; Jung, Christian

    2018-04-12

    To compare the ability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk levels in adolescents. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed after a database search for relevant literature (Cochrane, Centre for Review and Dissemination, PubMed, British Nursing Index, CINAHL, BIOSIS citation index, ChildData, metaRegister). 117 records representing 96 studies with 994,595 participants were included in the systematic review, 14 of which (13 studies, n=14,610) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The results of the meta-analysis showed that BMI was a strong indicator of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and insulin; but not total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein or glucose. Few studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis considering WC or WHtR (n≤2). The narrative synthesis found measures of central adiposity to be consistently valid indicators of the same risk factors as BMI. BMI was an indicator of CVD risk. WC and WHtR were efficacious for indicating the same risk factors BMI performed strongly for, though there was insufficient evidence to judge the relative strength of each measure possibly due to heterogeneity in the methods for measuring and classifying WC.

  5. Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

    2018-05-18

    Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stockwell Alannah

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. Methods The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New Zealand legislation, and scientific literature. Results Seven of the ten films contained at least one tobacco reference, similar to larger film samples. The majority of the 38 tobacco references involved characters smoking, most of whom were male. Smoking was associated with positive character traits, notably rebellion (which may appeal to adolescents. There appeared to be a low threshold for including smoking in film. Legislative or censorship approaches to smoking in film are currently unlikely to succeed. Anti-smoking advertising before films has promise, but experimental research is required to demonstrate cost effectiveness. Conclusion Smoking in film warrants concern from public health advocates. In New Zealand, pre-film anti-smoking advertising appears to be the most promising immediate policy response.

  7. Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Jesse; Fry, Bridget; Smith, Tara; Okawa, Ken; Chakrabarti, Anannya; Ah-Yen, Damien; Yi, Jesse; Townsend, Simon; Carroll, Rebecca; Stockwell, Alannah; Sievwright, Andrea; Dew, Kevin; Thomson, George

    2006-10-04

    Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New Zealand legislation, and scientific literature. Seven of the ten films contained at least one tobacco reference, similar to larger film samples. The majority of the 38 tobacco references involved characters smoking, most of whom were male. Smoking was associated with positive character traits, notably rebellion (which may appeal to adolescents). There appeared to be a low threshold for including smoking in film. Legislative or censorship approaches to smoking in film are currently unlikely to succeed. Anti-smoking advertising before films has promise, but experimental research is required to demonstrate cost effectiveness. Smoking in film warrants concern from public health advocates. In New Zealand, pre-film anti-smoking advertising appears to be the most promising immediate policy response.

  8. Differentiating Community Dwellers at Risk for Pathological Narcissism From Community Dwellers at Risk for Psychopathy Using Measures of Emotion Recognition and Subjective Emotional Activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Pincus, Aaron; Borroni, Serena; Dowgwillo, Emily A

    2017-06-01

    The Italian translations of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) and Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM) were administered to 609 community dwelling adults. Participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the PNI total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for pathological narcissism, whereas participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the TriPM total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for psychopathy. The final sample included 126 participants who were administered the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) and emotion-eliciting movie clips. Participants at risk for pathological narcissism scored significantly lower on the RMET total score than participants who were not at risk for pathological narcissism. Participants at risk for psychopathy showed a significant reduction in the subjective experience of disgust, fear, sadness, and tenderness compared to participants who were not at risk for psychopathy.

  9. Risk Factors for Pressure Ulcers Including Suspected Deep Tissue Injury in Nursing Home Facility Residents: Analysis of National Minimum Data Set 3.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Hyochol; Cowan, Linda; Garvan, Cynthia; Lyon, Debra; Stechmiller, Joyce

    2016-04-01

    To provide information on risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home residents in the United States. This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Examine the literature related to risk factors for the development of PrUs.2. Compare risk factors associated with the prevalence of PrUs and sDTI from the revised Minimum Data Set 3.0 2012 using a modified Defloor's conceptual model of PrUs as a theoretical framework. This study aims to characterize and compare risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home (NH) residents in the United States. Secondary analysis of the 2012 Minimum Data Set (MDS 3.0). Medicare- or Medicaid-certified NHs in the United States. Nursing home residents (n = 2,936,146) 18 years or older with complete PrU data, who received comprehensive assessments from January to December 2012. Pressure ulcer by stage was the outcome variable. Explanatory variables (age, gender, race and ethnicity, body mass index, skin integrity, system failure, disease, infection, mobility, and cognition) from the MDS 3.0 were aligned with the 4 elements of Defloor's conceptual model: compressive forces, shearing forces, tissue tolerance for pressure, and tissue tolerance for oxygen. Of 2,936,146 NH residents who had complete data for PrU, 89.9% had no PrU; 8.4% had a Stage 2, 3, or 4 or unstagable PrU; and 1.7% had an sDTI. The MDS variables corresponding to the 4 elements of Defloor's model were significantly predictive of both PrU and sDTI. Black residents had the highest risk of any-stage PrU, and Hispanic residents had the highest risk of sDTI. Skin integrity, system failure, infection, and disease risk factors had larger effect sizes for sDTI than for other PrU stages

  10. Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

    2016-02-01

    High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea

  11. Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

    2011-01-01

    We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

  12. Evaluation of fetal anthropometric measures to predict the risk for shoulder dystocia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, T; Schmidt, M; Kurmanavicius, J; Zimmermann, R; Schäffer, L

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the quality of anthropometric measures to improve the prediction of shoulder dystocia by combining different sonographic biometric parameters. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12,794 vaginal deliveries with complete sonographic biometry data obtained within 7 days before delivery. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves of various combinations of the biometric parameters, namely, biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), head circumference, abdominal diameter (AD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length were analyzed. The influences of independent risk factors were calculated and their combination used in a predictive model. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 1.14%. Different combinations of sonographic parameters showed comparable ROC curves without advantage for a particular combination. The difference between AD and BPD (AD - BPD) (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.704) revealed a significant increase in risk (odds ratio (OR) 7.6 (95% CI 4.2-13.9), sensitivity 8.2%, specificity 98.8%) at a suggested cut-off ≥ 2.6 cm. However, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (7.5%). The AC as a single parameter (AUC = 0.732) with a cut-off ≥ 35 cm performed worse (OR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5), PPV 2.6%). BPD/OFD (a surrogate for fetal cranial shape) was not significantly different between those with and those without shoulder dystocia. The combination of estimated fetal weight, maternal diabetes, gender and AD - BPD provided a reasonable estimate of the individual risk. Sonographic fetal anthropometric measures appear not to be a useful tool to screen for the risk of shoulder dystocia due to a low PPV. However, AD - BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor. While risk stratification including different known risk factors may aid in counseling, shoulder dystocia cannot effectively be predicted. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Risk Informed Approach for Nuclear Security Measures for Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material out of Regulatory Control. Implementing Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This publication provides guidance to States for developing a risk informed approach and for conducting threat and risk assessments as the basis for the design and implementation of sustainable nuclear security systems and measures for prevention of, detection of, and response to criminal and intentional unauthorised acts involving nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control. It describes concepts and methodologies for a risk informed approach, including identification and assessment of threats, targets, and potential consequences; threat and risk assessment methodologies, and the use of risk informed approaches as the basis for informing the development and implementation of nuclear security systems and measures. The publication is an Implementing Guide within the IAEA Nuclear Security Series and is intended for use by national policy makers, law enforcement agencies and experts from competent authorities and other relevant organizations involved in the establishment, implementation, maintenance or sustainability of nuclear security systems and measures related to nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control

  14. [Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

  15. Psychosocial stress factors, including the relationship with the coach, and their influence on acute and overuse injury risk in elite female football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensgaard, Anne Marte; Ivarsson, Andreas; Nilstad, Agnethe; Solstad, Bård Erlend; Steffen, Kathrin

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between specific types of stressors (eg, teammates, coach) and acute versus overuse injuries is not well understood. To examine the roles of different types of stressors as well as the effect of motivational climate on the occurrence of acute and overuse injuries. Players in the Norwegian elite female football league (n=193 players from 12 teams) participated in baseline screening tests prior to the 2009 competitive football season. As part of the screening, we included the Life Event Survey for Collegiate Athletes and the Perceived Motivational Climate in Sport Questionnaire (Norwegian short version). Acute and overuse time-loss injuries and exposure to training and matches were recorded prospectively in the football season using weekly text messaging. Data were analysed with Bayesian logistic regression analyses. Using Bayesian logistic regression analyses, we showed that perceived negative life event stress from teammates was associated with an increased risk of acute injuries (OR=1.23, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.48)). There was a credible positive association between perceived negative life event stress from the coach and the risk of overuse injuries (OR=1.21, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.45)). Players who report teammates as a source of stress have a greater risk of sustaining an acute injury, while players reporting the coach as a source of stress are at greater risk of sustaining an overuse injury. Motivational climate did not relate to increased injury occurrence.

  16. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be

  17. Brine migration resulting from CO2 injection into saline aquifers – An approach to risk estimation including various levels of uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Oladyshkin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    resulting from displaced brine. Quantifying risk on the basis of numerical simulations requires consideration of different kinds of uncertainties and this study considers both, scenario uncertainty and statistical uncertainty. Addressing scenario uncertainty involves expert opinion on relevant geological......Comprehensive risk assessment is a major task for large-scale projects such as geological storage of CO2. Basic hazards are damage to the integrity of caprocks, leakage of CO2, or reduction of groundwater quality due to intrusion of fluids. This study focuses on salinization of freshwater aquifers...... for large-scale 3D models including complex physics. Therefore, we apply a model reduction based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion combined with probabilistic collocation method. It is shown that, dependent on data availability, both types of uncertainty can be equally significant. The presented study...

  18. Measuring compliance of conducting an occupational health risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... health risk assessment in the occupational health nurse's practice. ... A quantitative, descriptive design was used in this study. ... A self-developed questionnaire was distributed by mail and e-mail, and authors sent respondents reminders.

  19. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  20. Birth Weight and Long-Term Overweight Risk: Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis Including 643,902 Persons from 66 Studies and 26 Countries Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Thomas; Plagemann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Background Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis. Methods and Findings Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (poverweight (odds ratio (OR) = 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–0.76). High birth weight (>4,000 g) was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR = 1.66; 95% CI 1.55–1.77). Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500–4,000 g) as reference category (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.63–0.84, and OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.45–1.77, respectively). Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.43–2.67). Conclusions Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy

  1. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  2. Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasnoff, William A

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

  3. Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and clinical outcomes among young adults reporting high-risk sexual behavior, including men who have sex with men, in coastal Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Susan M; Mugo, Peter; Gichuru, Evanson; Thiong'o, Alexander; Macharia, Michael; Okuku, Haile S; van der Elst, Elise; Price, Matthew A; Muraguri, Nicholas; Sanders, Eduard J

    2013-05-01

    African men who have sex with men (MSM) face significant stigma and barriers to care. We investigated antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence among high-risk adults, including MSM, participating in a clinic-based cohort. Survival analysis was used to compare attrition across patient groups. Differences in adherence, weight gain, and CD4 counts after ART initiation were assessed. Among 250 HIV-1-seropositive adults, including 108 MSM, 15 heterosexual men, and 127 women, patient group was not associated with attrition. Among 58 participants who were followed on ART, 40 % of MSM had less than 95 % adherence, versus 28.6 % of heterosexual men and 11.5 % of women. Although MSM gained less weight after ART initiation than women (adjusted difference -3.5 kg/year), CD4 counts did not differ. More data are needed on barriers to adherence and clinical outcomes among African MSM, to ensure that MSM can access care and derive treatment and prevention benefits from ART.

  4. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  5. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawu, Rebecca; Quansah, Joseph E.; Fall, Souleymane; Gichuhi, Peter N.; Bovell-Benjamin, Adelia C.

    2015-01-01

    In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs) were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%), restaurants (19.7%), fast food restaurants (16.4%), small supermarkets (8.2%), and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %), respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices. PMID:26844138

  6. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline

    2011-01-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass in...

  7. Adaptation measures and pathways for flood risk in Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Kelder, E.; Anema, K.; van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2014-01-01

    In line with the Adaptive Delta Management approach of the Dutch Delta Programme, Dordrecht has developed a multi-layer safety strategy to meet the future tasking for flood risk management. This strategy puts greater emphasis on limiting the consequences of floods through spatial planning (layer 2)

  8. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  9. Land Use Measures are Underused in Flood Risk Mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den A.; Neuvel, J.J.M. (Jeroen)

    2010-01-01

    New research in the Netherlands indicates that spatial planning to manage flood risk, such as the elevation of residential areas and the exclusion of vulnerable land uses from flood-prone areas, is underused. Its use appears to depend on governmental requirements, previous experience of flooding and

  10. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  11. Can a coherent risk measure be too subadditive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhaene, J.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Vanduffel, S.; Darkiewicz, G.; Goovaerts, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    We consider the problem of determining appropriate solvency capital requirements for an insurance company or a financial institution. We demonstrate that the subadditivity condition that is often imposed on solvency capital principles can lead to the undesirable situation where the shortfall risk

  12. Is energy imparted a good measure of the radiation risk associated with CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.

    1984-01-01

    The dose distribution in a Rando phantom has been measured for typical EMI 5005 CT scans of the head, chest, abdomen and pelvis. These dose distributions have been used to generate quantitative estimates of the somatic and genetic radiation risks associated with these CT examinations and also to measure the total energy imparted during each scan. A comparison has been made between the radiation risk estimates and the energy imparted measurements. The energy imparted measurements are not a good indicator of the somatic and/or genetic risks when one type of CT scan is compared with another. However, for a given type of scan, the energy imparted may be a reasonable indicator of the relative somatic risks associated with different CT examinations. Considerable care should be taken when interpreting and using any measured value of energy imparted in a radiological examination since published values of the risk per unit energy imparted can significantly underestimate the radiation risk. (author)

  13. The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yan; Fu Zhiwei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming; Liu Hongquan

    2012-01-01

    The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

  14. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  15. A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

    2000-01-01

    A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

  16. Modeling strategy to identify patients with primary immunodeficiency utilizing risk management and outcome measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modell, Vicki; Quinn, Jessica; Ginsberg, Grant; Gladue, Ron; Orange, Jordan; Modell, Fred

    2017-06-01

    This study seeks to generate analytic insights into risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. The Jeffrey Modell Centers Network database, Jeffrey Modell Foundation's 10 Warning Signs, the 4 Stages of Testing Algorithm, physician-reported clinical outcomes, programs of physician education and public awareness, the SPIRIT® Analyzer, and newborn screening, taken together, generates P values of less than 0.05%. This indicates that the data results do not occur by chance, and that there is a better than 95% probability that the data are valid. The objectives are to improve patients' quality of life, while generating significant reduction of costs. The advances of the world's experts aligned with these JMF programs can generate analytic insights as to risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. This strategy reduces the uncertainties related to primary immunodeficiency risks, as we can screen, test, identify, and treat undiagnosed patients. We can also address regional differences and prevalence, age, gender, treatment modalities, and sites of care, as well as economic benefits. These tools support high net benefits, substantial financial savings, and significant reduction of costs. All stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, third party payers, and government healthcare agencies, must address the earliest possible precise diagnosis, appropriate intervention and treatment, as well as stringent control of healthcare costs through risk assessment and outcome measurement. An affected patient is entitled to nothing less, and stakeholders are responsible to utilize tools currently available. Implementation offers a significant challenge to the entire primary immunodeficiency community.

  17. Avian influenza transmission risks: analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssematimba, A; Hagenaars, T J; de Wit, J J; Ruiterkamp, F; Fabri, T H; Stegeman, J A; de Jong, M C M

    2013-04-01

    In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We carried out an in-depth interview study aiming to systematically explore all the poultry production activities to identify the activities that could potentially be related to virus introduction and transmission. One of the between-farm contact risks that were identified is the movement of birds between farms during thinning with violations of on-farm biosecurity protocols. In addition, several other risky management practices, risky visitor behaviours and biosecurity breaches were identified. They include human and fomite contacts that occurred without observing biosecurity protocols, poor waste management practices, presence of other animal species on poultry farms, and poor biosecurity against risks from farm neighbourhood activities. Among the detailed practices identified, taking cell phones and jewellery into poultry houses, not observing shower-in protocols and the exchange of unclean farm equipment were common. Also, sometimes certain protocols or biosecurity facilities were lacking. We also asked the interviewed farmers about their perception of transmission risks and found that they had divergent opinions about the visitor- and neighbourhood-associated risks. We performed a qualitative assessment of contact risks (as transmission pathways) based on contact type, corresponding biosecurity practices, and contact frequency. This assessment suggests that the most risky contact types are bird movements during thinning and restocking, most human movements accessing poultry houses and proximity to other poultry farms. The overall risk posed by persons and equipment accessing storage rooms and the premises-only contacts was considered to be medium. Most of the exposure

  18. Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderita Sena

    Full Text Available Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

  19. Risk assessment of exposure to mechanical vibrations: comparison between field measurements and use of databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monica, L.; Nataletti, P.; Vignali, G.

    2008-01-01

    Despite continuous technological progress with a view to guaranteeing workers' safety and health, there are still many hazardous situations to workers' health when using industrial equipment; exposure to mechanical vibrations may definitely be included among these situations. Many researches have shown that the widespread use of various vibrating tools in the industrial, agricultural and forestry fields, such as vehicles and machinery in the workplace, are a source of vibration disorders or the worsening of pre-existing symptoms.The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between the two types of risk assessment currently provided for by the law: direct field measurements and database support. We will identify the advantages and operational limitations involved in the use of databases through the results of direct field measurements assessing the risk derived from vibrations in a typical engineering company in the mineral waters and beverages industry. As a result, this research can represent a functional reference for risk assessments of vibration exposure in individual companies

  20. Theory and Application of an Economic Performance Measure of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Niu (Cuizhen); X. Guo (Xu); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractHomm and Pigorsch (2012a) use the Aumann and Serrano index to develop a new economic performance measure (EPM), which is well known to have advantages over other measures. In this paper, we extend the theory by constructing a one-sample confidence interval of EPM, and construct

  1. Deploying and measuring a risk and patient safety program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orel, Howard; McGroarty, Molly; Marchegiani, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Health care continues to evolve at a rapid rate. Over just the past decade, the industry has seen the introduction and widespread implementation of an electronic health record, increase in presence of nurse practitioners and physician assistants to help manage the shortage of physicians, and the introduction of accountable care organizations. It is with these changes that new challenges and opportunities emerge. One such challenge is the increase in the severity of medical malpractice claims throughout the nation. Another emerging challenge is the introduction of outcome-based reimbursements, with providers potentially losing a portion of their payment should the patient experience result in a preventable adverse event. These trends are resulting in providers continuously seeking innovative approaches to reducing risk and improving patient safety. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  2. Distortion risk measures for sums of dependent losses | Brahimi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of losses and possible correlations between risk components. Resume. Nous discutons deux approches distinctes, de distortion des mesures de risque de la somme de variables al´eatoires d´ependantes, qui conservent la propri´et´e de coh´erence. La premi`ere, bas´ee sur les esp´erances distordues, agit sur la fonction ...

  3. A CONFIRMATORY APPROACH TO MEASURING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    Our proposed research methodology reveals the advantages of a confirmatory factor analysis over an exploratory principal component analysis in the context of risks management in supply chains. Moreover, as Sodhi and Tang (2012 reveals, more than half of papers in existing SCRM literature are either conceptual or qualitative empirical (case studies. Our proposed quantitative methodology contributes to reducing the above mentioned gap, providing results that can be used for statistical inferences and for enhancing the efficiency of the managerial decisional process.

  4. The Effect of Shortfall as a Risk measure for Portfolios with Hedge Funds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Siegmann, A.H.

    2008-01-01

    Current research suggests that the large downside risk in hedge fund returns disqualifies the variance as an appropriate risk measure. For example, one can easily construct portfolios with nonlinear pay-offs that have both a high Sharpe ratio and a high downside risk. This paper examines the

  5. Prevalence of deleterious germline variants in risk genes including BRCA1/2 in consecutive ovarian cancer patients (AGO-TR-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Harter

    Full Text Available Identification of families at risk for ovarian cancer offers the opportunity to consider prophylactic surgery thus reducing ovarian cancer mortality. So far, identification of potentially affected families in Germany was solely performed via family history and numbers of affected family members with breast or ovarian cancer. However, neither the prevalence of deleterious variants in BRCA1/2 in ovarian cancer in Germany nor the reliability of family history as trigger for genetic counselling has ever been evaluated.Prospective counseling and germline testing of consecutive patients with primary diagnosis or with platinum-sensitive relapse of an invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Testing included 25 candidate and established risk genes. Among these 25 genes, 16 genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, CHEK2, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, NBN, PMS2, PTEN, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, STK11, TP53 were defined as established cancer risk genes. A positive family history was defined as at least one relative with breast cancer or ovarian cancer or breast cancer in personal history.In total, we analyzed 523 patients: 281 patients with primary diagnosis of ovarian cancer and 242 patients with relapsed disease. Median age at primary diagnosis was 58 years (range 16-93 and 406 patients (77.6% had a high-grade serous ovarian cancer. In total, 27.9% of the patients showed at least one deleterious variant in all 25 investigated genes and 26.4% in the defined 16 risk genes. Deleterious variants were most prevalent in the BRCA1 (15.5%, BRCA2 (5.5%, RAD51C (2.5% and PALB2 (1.1% genes. The prevalence of deleterious variants did not differ significantly between patients at primary diagnosis and relapse. The prevalence of deleterious variants in BRCA1/2 (and in all 16 risk genes in patients <60 years was 30.2% (33.2% versus 10.6% (18.9% in patients ≥60 years. Family history was positive in 43% of all patients. Patients with a positive family history had a prevalence of deleterious variants

  6. The Racial, Cultural and Social Makeup of Hispanics as a potential Profile Risk for Intensifying the Need for Including this Ethnic Group in Clinical Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Candales, Angel; Aponte Rodríguez, Jaime; Harris, David

    2015-01-01

    Hypertension not only is the most frequently listed cause of death worldwide; but also a well-recognized major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and stroke. Based on the latest published statistics published by the American Heart Association, hypertension is very prevalent and found in one of every 3 US adults. Furthermore, data from NHANES 2007 to 2010 claims that almost 6% of US adults have undiagnosed hypertension. Despite this staggering statistic, previous US guidelines for the prevention, detection, and treatment of hypertension (The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure 7 [JNC 7]), released in 2003, stated that; "unfortunately, sufficient numbers of Mexican Americans and other Hispanic Americans... have not been included in most of the major clinical trials to allow reaching strong conclusions about their responses to individual antihypertensive therapies." However, the recently published JNC 8 offers no comment regarding recommendations or guideline treatment suggestions on Hispanics. The purpose of this article not only is to raise awareness of the lack of epidemiological data and treatment options regarding high blood pressure in the US Hispanic population; but also to make a case of the racial, cultural and social makeup of this ethnic group that places them at risk of cardiovascular complications related to hypertension.

  7. Inadequate recording of alcohol-drinking, tobacco-smoking and discharge diagnosis in medical in-patients: failure to recognize risks including drug interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bairstow, B M; Burke, V; Beilin, L J; Deutscher, C

    1993-11-01

    The records of 62 men and 43 women, 14-88 years old, admitted to general medical wards in a public teaching hospital during 1991 were examined for discharge medications and for the recording of alcohol-drinking, tobacco-smoking and discharge diagnosis. Drinking and smoking status was unrecorded in 22.9% and 21.9% of patients respectively. Twenty-four patients had 31 potential drug interactions which were related to the number of drugs prescribed and to drinking alcohol; 10.5% of the patients had interactions involving alcohol and 2.9% tobacco. Six patients received relatively or absolutely contraindicated drugs, including one asthmatic given two beta-blockers. The drugs prescribed indicated that some patients had conditions such as gastro-oesophageal disorders, diabetes and obstructive airways disease which had not been recorded. Inadequate recording of diagnoses, alcohol and smoking status creates risks to patients and may cause opportunities for preventive care to be missed. This study provides the basis for the development of undergraduate and postgraduate education programmes to address these issues and so decrease risks to patients which arise from inadequate recording practices. Incomplete diagnoses also adversely affect hospital funding where this depends on case-mix diagnostic groups. Quality assurance programmes and other strategies are being implemented to improve medical recording and prescribing habits.

  8. Alpha-adducin Gly460Trp polymorphism and hypertension risk: a meta-analysis of 22 studies including 14303 cases and 15961 controls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: No clear consensus has been reached on the alpha-adducin polymorphism (Gly460Trp and essential hypertension risk. We performed a meta-analysis in an effort to systematically summarize the possible association. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases complemented with perusal of bibliographies of retrieved articles and correspondence with original authors. The fixed-effects model and the random-effects model were applied for dichotomous outcomes to combine the results of the individual studies. We selected 22 studies that met the inclusion criteria including a total of 14303 hypertensive patients and 15961 normotensive controls. Overall, the 460Trp allele showed no statistically significant association with hypertension risk compared to Gly460 allele (P = 0.69, OR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.94-1.10, P(heterogeneity<0.0001 in all subjects. Meta-analysis under other genetic contrasts still did not reveal any significant association in all subjects, Caucasians, East Asians and others. The results were similar but heterogeneity did not persist when sensitivity analyses were limited to these studies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our meta-analysis failed to provide evidence for the genetic association of α-adducin gene Gly460Trp polymorphism with hypertension. Further studies investigating the effect of genetic networks, environmental factors, individual biological characteristics and their mutual interactions are needed to elucidate the possible mechanism for hypertension in humans.

  9. Aerosol measurement: the use of optical light scattering for the determination of particulate size distribution, and particulate mass, including the semi-volatile fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Hans; Eatough, Delbert J

    2009-01-01

    The GRIMM model 1.107 monitor is designed to measure particle size distribution and particulate mass based on a light scattering measurement of individual particles in the sampled air. The design and operation of the instrument are described. Protocols used to convert the measured size number distribution to a mass concentration consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency protocols for measuring particulate matter (PM) less than 10 microm (PM10) and less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter are described. The performance of the resulting continuous monitor has been evaluated by comparing GRIMM monitor PM2.5 measurements with results obtained by the Rupprecht and Patashnick Co. (R&P) filter dynamic measurement system (FDMS). Data were obtained during month-long studies in Rubidoux, CA, in July 2003 and in Fresno, CA, in December 2003. The results indicate that the GRIMM monitor does respond to total PM2.5 mass, including the semi-volatile components, giving results comparable to the FDMS. The data also indicate that the monitor can be used to estimate water content of the fine particles. However, if the inlet to the monitor is heated, then the instrument measures only the nonvolatile material, more comparable to results obtained with a conventional heated filter tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) monitor. A recent modification of the model 180, with a Nafion dryer at the inlet, measures total PM2.5 including the nonvolatile and semi-volatile components, but excluding fine particulate water. Model 180 was in agreement with FDMS data obtained in Lindon, UT, during January through February 2007.

  10. Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iordanis Eleftheriadis

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

  11. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  12. Upside and downside beta portfolio construction: A different approach to risk measurement and portfolio construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin Guy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional financial measurements of risk are limited to variance-based methodologies. The most common measurement tool is beta. The beta calculation, however, is directionally agnostic and relies on the assumption of a normal distribution. This is a poor metric by which risk is measured, and is incomplete. The ability to break down beta into Upside and Downside beta allows investors the ability to more intelligently build risk into a portfolio. Using three-year trailing betas may also allow investors the ability to benefit from mean reversion and generate excess returns on a risk-adjusted basis.

  13. Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

  14. Cranberry juice consumption lowers markers of cardiometabolic risk, including blood pressure and circulating C-reactive protein, triglyceride, and glucose concentrations in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotny, Janet A; Baer, David J; Khoo, Christina; Gebauer, Sarah K; Charron, Craig S

    2015-06-01

    Cardiometabolic risk is the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, or stroke, which are leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of low-calorie cranberry juice (LCCJ) to lower cardiometabolic risk. A double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-arm study was conducted with controlled diets. Thirty women and 26 men (mean baseline characteristics: 50 y; weight, 79 kg; body mass index, 28 kg/m(2)) completed an 8-wk intervention with LCCJ or a flavor/color/energy-matched placebo beverage. Twice daily volunteers consumed 240 mL of LCCJ or the placebo beverage, containing 173 or 62 mg of phenolic compounds and 6.5 or 7.5 g of total sugar per 240-mL serving, respectively. Fasting serum triglycerides (TGs) were lower after consuming LCCJ and demonstrated a treatment × baseline interaction such that the participants with higher baseline TG concentrations were more likely to experience a larger treatment effect (1.15 ± 0.04 mmol/L vs. 1.25 ± 0.04 mmol/L, respectively; P = 0.027). Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) was lower for individuals consuming LCCJ than for individuals consuming the placebo beverage [ln transformed values of 0.522 ± 0.115 ln(mg/L) vs. 0.997 ± 0.120 ln(mg/L), P = 0.0054, respectively, and equivalent to 1.69 mg/L vs. 2.71 mg/L back-transformed]. LCCJ lowered diastolic blood pressure (BP) compared with the placebo beverage (69.2 ± 0.8 mm Hg for LCCJ vs. 71.6 ± 0.8 mm Hg for placebo; P = 0.048). Fasting plasma glucose was lower (P = 0.03) in the LCCJ group (5.32 ± 0.03 mmol/L) than in the placebo group (5.42 ± 0.03 mmol/L), and LCCJ had a beneficial effect on homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance for participants with high baseline values (P = 0.035). LCCJ can improve several risk factors of CVD in adults, including circulating TGs, CRP, and glucose, insulin resistance, and diastolic BP. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01295684. © 2015

  15. Farm-based measures for reducing microbiological health risks for consumers from informal wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Konradsen, Flemming; Drechsel, Pay

    2010-01-01

    in developing countries as part of a multiple-barrier approach for health-risk reduction along the farm to fork pathway. Measures discussed include treatment of irrigation water using ponds, filters and wetland systems; water application techniques; irrigation scheduling; and crop selection. In addition...

  16. Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Doris; Pavel, Jutta; Mayer, Geert; Geisler, Peter; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

    2017-06-01

    Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls). A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1). The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  18. Urban sustainability : complex interactions and the measurement of risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Diappi

    1999-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the concept of asustainable city and its theoretical implications for the urban system. Urban sustainability is based on positive interactions among three different urban sub-systems : social, economic and physical, where social well-being coexists with economic development and environmental quality. This utopian scenario doesn’t appear. Affluent economy is often associated with poverty and criminality, labour variety and urban efficiency coexist with pollution and congestion. The research subject is the analysis of local risk and opportunity conditions, based on the application of a special definition of risk elaborated and made operative with the production of a set of maps representing the multidimensional facets of spatial organisation in urban sustainability. The interactions among the economic/social and environmental systems are complex and unpredictable and present the opportunity for a new methodology of scientific investigation : the connectionistic approach, processed by Self-Reflexive Neural Networks (SRNN. These Networks are a useful instrument of investigation and analogic questioning of the Data Base. Once the SRNN has learned the structure of the weights from the DB, by querying the network with the maximization or minimization of specific groups of attributes, it is possible to read the related properties and to rank the areas. The survey scale assumed by the research is purposefully aimed at the micro-scale and concerns the Municipality of Milan which is spatially divided into 144 zones.

  19. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  20. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  1. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  2. Entropy measure of credit risk in highly correlated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, Sylvia

    2017-07-01

    We compare the single and multi-factor structural models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Single-factor structural models assume that the stochastic process driving the value of a firm is independent of that of other companies. A multi-factor structural model, on the contrary, is built on the assumption that a single firm's value follows a stochastic process correlated with that of other companies. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, but that it is closer to zero in small markets, when asset correlations are low and firms are highly leveraged. These findings suggest that during periods of financial instability, when asset volatility and correlations increase, one of the models misreports actual default risk.

  3. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  4. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  5. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  6. Field Measurements of Trace Gases and Aerosols Emitted by Undersampled Combustion Sources Including Wood and Dung Cooking Fires, Garbage and Crop Residue Burning, and Indonesian Peat Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockwell, C.; Jayarathne, T. S.; Goetz, D.; Simpson, I. J.; Selimovic, V.; Bhave, P.; Blake, D. R.; Cochrane, M. A.; Ryan, K. C.; Putra, E. I.; Saharjo, B.; Stone, E. A.; DeCarlo, P. F.; Yokelson, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Field measurements were conducted in Nepal and in the Indonesian province of Central Kalimantan to improve characterization of trace gases and aerosols emitted by undersampled combustion sources. The sources targeted included cooking with a variety of stoves, garbage burning, crop residue burning, and authentic peat fires. Trace gas and aerosol emissions were studied using a land-based Fourier transform infrared spectrometer, whole air sampling, photoacoustic extinctiometers (405 and 870nm), and filter samples that were analyzed off-line. These measurements were used to calculate fuel-based emission factors (EFs) for up to 90 gases, PM2.5, and PM2.5 constituents. The aerosol optical data measured included EFs for the scattering and absorption coefficients, the single scattering albedo (at 870 and 405 nm), as well as the absorption Ångström exponent. The emissions varied significantly by source, although light absorption by both brown and black carbon (BrC and BC, respectively) was important for all non-peat sources. For authentic peat combustion, the emissions of BC were negligible and absorption was dominated by organic aerosol. The field results from peat burning were in reasonable agreement with recent lab measurements of smoldering Kalimantan peat and compare well to the limited data available from other field studies. The EFs can be used with estimates of fuel consumption to improve regional emissions inventories and assessments of the climate and health impacts of these undersampled sources.

  7. Measuring Value at Risk for Mortgage Backed Securities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Svend

    1996-01-01

    , especially with respect to the estimation of zero coupon yield curves as well as in the choice of mapping techniques. The MBS-valuation is done by a model developed in Jakobsen(1992,1994), which includes burn-out effects without the need for Monte Carlo simulation. The mapping of deltaequivalent cash flows...

  8. Measurement of functional independence level and falls-risk in individuals with undiagnosed phenylketonuria.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mazur, Artur

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the level of functional independence in adult patients with previously undiagnosed or untreated phenylketonuria (PKU). The study was conducted among 400 intellectually impaired adult residents of Social Welfare Homes in South-Eastern Poland born prior to the introduction of neonatal PKU screening programs. PKU was screened by filter paper test using tandem mass spectrometry methods, and confirmed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometric analysis of PKU organic acids in urine. Degree of functional independence included the assessment of activities of daily living (Barthel Index) and measures of balance and gait (Tinetti scale). Eleven individuals with previously untreated PKU were identified whereby eight presented with moderate disability and three with mild disability. Six had a high risk of falls and five had a moderate risk of falls. This study indicates that there is considerable number of undiagnosed PKU patients within the Polish population who require assessment and management in order to reduce the impact of the neurological and neuropsychiatric problems associated with the condition. Appropriate therapy for those with undiagnosed PKU should, in particular, address the risk of falls.

  9. Yet Another Mammography Measure to Evaluate Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Nielsen, Mads

    ),  Tabar Patterns (Tabar et al 1982) , radiologist’s categorical scorings Breast Imaging Report and Data System® (BIRADS) (ACR 2003) and computer-assisted planimetric measures of area percentage dense tissue (Byng et al 1994). All these rely on a radiologist’s assessment of mammographic appearance.  We...... of the statistical analysis when their scores were computed. This was always done leaving a case and a control out simultaneously to treat both classes equal. Results: The categorical score significantly separated cancer and control (p=0.001) and also interval and screen cancers (p=0.04). Similar results were...

  10. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks; Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... A bank subject to this appendix must have a risk management system that meets the following minimum... management and is independent from business trading units. (2) The bank's internal risk measurement model... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank...

  11. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  12. Ten-year outcome including patterns of failure and toxicity for adjuvant whole abdominopelvic irradiation in high-risk and poor histologic feature patients with endometrial carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, Kimberly D.; Martinez, Alvaro A.; Weiner, Sheldon; Podratz, Karl; Stromberg, Jannifer S.; Schray, Mark; Mitchell, Christina; Sherman, Alfred; Chen, Peter; Brabbins, Donald A.

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the long-term results of treatment using adjuvant whole abdominal irradiation (WAPI) with a pelvic/vaginal boost in patients with Stage I-III endometrial carcinoma at high risk of intra-abdominopelvic recurrence, including clear cell (CC) and serous-papillary (SP) histologic features. Methods and Materials: In a prospective nonrandomized trial, 119 patients were treated with adjuvant WAPI between November 1981 and April 2000. All patients were analyzed, including those who did not complete therapy. The mean age at diagnosis was 66 years (range 39-88). Thirty-eight patients (32%) had 1989 FIGO Stage I-II disease and 81 (68%) had Stage III. The pathologic features included the following: 64 (54%) with deep myometrial invasion, 48 (40%) with positive peritoneal cytologic findings, 69 (58%) with high-grade lesions, 21 (18%) with positive pelvic/para-aortic lymph nodes, and 44 (37%) with SP or CC histologic findings. Results: The mean follow-up was 5.8 years (range 0.2-14.7). For the entire group, the 5- and 10-year cause-specific survival (CSS) rate was 75% and 69% and the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 58% and 48%, respectively. When stratified by histologic features, the 5- and 10-year CSS rate for adenocarcinoma was 76% and 71%, and for serous papillary/CC subtypes, it was 74% and 63%, respectively (p=0.917). The 5- and 10-year DFS rate for adenocarcinoma was 60% and 50% and was 54% and 37% serous papillary/CC subtypes, respectively (p=0.498). For surgical Stage I-II, the 5-year CSS rate was 82% for adenocarcinoma and 87% for SP/CC features (p=0.480). For Stage III, it was 75% and 57%, respectively (p=0.129). Thirty-seven patients had a relapse, with the first site of failure the abdomen/pelvis in 14 (38%), lung in 8 (22%), extraabdominal lymph nodes in 7 (19%), vagina in 6 (16%), and other in 2 (5%). When stratified by histologic variant, 32% of patients with adenocarcinoma and 30% with the SP/CC subtype developed recurrent disease. Most

  13. Patients with neuromyelitis optica have a more severe disease than patients with relapsingremitting multiple sclerosis, including higher risk of dying of a demyelinating disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Bernardi Bichuetti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Although neuromyelitis optica (NMO is known to be a more severe disease than relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS, few studies comparing both conditions in a single center have been done. Methods: Comparison of our previously published cohort of 41 NMO patients with 177 RRMS patients followed in the same center, from 1994 to 2007. Results: Mean age of onset was 32.6 for NMO and 30.2 for RRMS (p=0.2062 with mean disease duration of 7.4 years for NMO and 10.3 years for RRMS. Patients with NMO had a higher annualized relapse rate (1.0 versus 0.8, p=0.0013 and progression index (0.9 versus 0.6, p≪0.0001, with more patients reaching expanded disability status scale (EDSS 6.0 (39 versus 17%, p=0.0036. The odds ratio for reaching EDSS 6.0 and being deceased due to NMO in comparison to RRMS were, respectively, 3.14 and 12.15. Conclusion: Patients with NMO have a more severe disease than patients with RRMS, including higher risk of dying of a demyelinating disease.

  14. Using patient reported outcome measures in health services: A qualitative study on including people with low literacy skills and learning disabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahagirdar Deepa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs are self-report measures of health status increasingly promoted for use in healthcare quality improvement. However people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities may find PROMs hard to complete. Our study investigated stakeholder views on the accessibility and use of PROMs to develop suggestions for more inclusive practice. Methods Taking PROMs recommended for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD as an example, we conducted 8 interviews with people with low literacy skills and/or learning disabilities, and 4 focus groups with 20 health professionals and people with COPD. Discussions covered the format and delivery of PROMs using the EQ-5D and St George Respiratory Questionnaire as prompts. Thematic framework analysis focused on three main themes: Accessibility, Ease of Use, and Contextual factors. Results Accessibility included issues concerning the questionnaire format, and suggestions for improvement included larger font sizes and more white space. Ease of Use included discussion about PROMs’ administration. While health professionals suggested PROMs could be completed in waiting rooms, patients preferred settings with more privacy and where they could access help from people they know. Contextual Factors included other challenges and wider issues associated with completing PROMs. While health professionals highlighted difficulties created by the system in managing patients with low literacy/learning disabilities, patient participants stressed that understanding the purpose of PROMs was important to reduce intimidation. Conclusions Adjusting PROMs’ format, giving an explicit choice of where patients can complete them, and clearly conveying PROMs’ purpose and benefit to patients may help to prevent inequality when using PROMs in health services.

  15. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  16. Reading curriculum-based measurement: screening Portuguese students at risk for dyslexia

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz, Paula Marisa Fortunato; Martins, Ana Paula Loução

    2016-01-01

    This poster presentation will present results from a study developed within the rst level of support, primary prevention, which was focused on identifying and preventing academic problems from occurring in those students enrolled in a school setting. How progress measurement was used in reading comprehension as a universal school screening system for third-grade Portuguese students will be analyzed. Results for level and growth in both groups of students at risk and not at risk and the risk ...

  17. Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szecsenyi Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD, patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European countries (EPA-Cardio, we have developed and tested a set of standardized measures, linked to previously developed quality indicators. Methods A structured stepwise procedure was followed to develop measures. First, the research team allocated 106 validated quality indicators to one of the three target populations (established CVD, at high risk, at low risk and to different data-collection methods (data abstraction from the medical records, a patient survey, an interview with lead practice GP/a practice survey. Secondly, we selected a number of other validated measures to enrich the assessment. A pilot study was performed to test the feasibility. Finally, we revised the measures based on the findings. Results The EPA-Cardio measures consisted of abstraction forms from the medical-records data of established Coronary Heart Disease (CHD-patients - and high-risk groups, a patient questionnaire for each of the 3 groups, an interview questionnaire for the lead GP and a questionnaire for practice teams. The measures were feasible and accepted by general practices from different countries. Conclusions An internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management, linked to validated quality indicators and tested for feasibility in general practice, is now available. Careful development and pilot testing of the measures are crucial in international studies of quality of healthcare.

  18. Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Curtis

    1999-01-01

    This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately

  19. Act No. 87-565 of 22 July 1987 on the organization of public safety measures, forestry protection against fires and the prevention of major risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    As defined by this Act, the objective of the public safety measures is to prevent all types of major risks and to protect persons, property and the environment, including forests, against accidents, disasters and catastrophes. It deals with the conditions for preparing preventive measures and for implementing necessary measures in case of major risks or accidents. The preparation and organization of assistance are determined within the framework of ORSEC (ORganisation des SECours) plans and emergency plans; the first assess the possibilities for facing up to disasters while the latter provide for measures and means to overcome a particular risk [fr

  20. Evaluation of easily measured risk factors in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Jacques P

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fracture represents the single most important clinical event in patients with osteoporosis, yet remains under-predicted. As few premonitory symptoms for fracture exist, it is of critical importance that physicians effectively and efficiently identify individuals at increased fracture risk. Methods Of 3426 postmenopausal women in CANDOO, 40, 158, 99, and 64 women developed a new hip, vertebral, wrist or rib fracture, respectively. Seven easily measured risk factors predictive of fracture in research trials were examined in clinical practice including: age (, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+ years, rising from a chair with arms (yes, no, weight (≥ 57kg, maternal history of hip facture (yes, no, prior fracture after age 50 (yes, no, hip T-score (>-1, -1 to >-2.5, ≤-2.5, and current smoking status (yes, no. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results The inability to rise from a chair without the use of arms (3.58; 95% CI: 1.17, 10.93 was the most significant risk factor for new hip fracture. Notable risk factors for predicting new vertebral fractures were: low body weight (1.57; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.37, current smoking (1.95; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.18 and age between 75–79 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.51. New wrist fractures were significantly identified by low body weight (1.71, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90 and prior fracture after 50 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.22. Predictors of new rib fractures include a maternal history of a hip facture (2.89; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.08 and a prior fracture after 50 years (2.16; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.87. Conclusion This study has shown that there exists a variety of predictors of future fracture, besides BMD, that can be easily assessed by a physician. The significance of each variable depends on the site of incident fracture. Of greatest interest is that an inability to rise from a chair is perhaps the most readily identifiable significant risk factor for hip fracture and can be easily incorporated

  1. Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data...

  2. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Gyawu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%, restaurants (19.7%, fast food restaurants (16.4%, small supermarkets (8.2%, and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %, respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p < 0.0001 higher health scores than the other store types. A few health promotion messages were highly visible or obscurely positioned in some RFOs. The Alabama Black Belt food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices.

  3. A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

  4. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  5. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk, S. B.; Takken, T.; Prinsen, E. C.; Wittink, H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ra...

  6. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  7. Rationale and design of three observational, prospective cohort studies including biobanking to evaluate and improve diagnostics, management strategies and risk stratification in venous thromboembolism: the VTEval Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Bernd; Ariza, Liana; Lamparter, Heidrun; Grossmann, Vera; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Ullmann, Alexander; Kindler, Florentina; Weisser, Gerhard; Walter, Ulrich; Lackner, Karl J; Espinola-Klein, Christine; Münzel, Thomas; Konstantinides, Stavros V; Wild, Philipp S

    2015-07-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) with its two manifestations deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major public health problem. The VTEval Project aims to investigate numerous research questions on diagnosis, clinical management, treatment and prognosis of VTE, which have remained uncertain to date. The VTEval Project consists of three observational, prospective cohort studies on VTE comprising cohorts of individuals with a clinical suspicion of acute PE (with or without DVT), with a clinical suspicion of acute DVT (without symptomatic PE) and with an incidental diagnosis of VTE (PE or DVT). The VTEval Project expects to enrol a total of approximately 2000 individuals with subsequent active and passive follow-up investigations over a time period of 5 years per participant. Time points for active follow-up investigations are at months 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 after diagnosis (depending on the disease cohort); passive follow-up investigations via registry offices and the cancer registry are performed 48 and 60 months after diagnosis for all participants. Primary short-term outcome is defined by overall mortality (PE-related death and all other causes of death), primary long-term outcome by symptomatic VTE (PE-related death, recurrence of non-fatal PE or DVT). The VTEval Project includes three 'all-comer' studies and involves the standardised acquisition of high-quality data, covering the systematic assessment of VTE including symptoms, risk profile, psychosocial, environmental and lifestyle factors as well as clinical and subclinical disease, and it builds up a large state-of-the-art biorepository containing various materials from serial blood samplings. The VTEval Project has been approved by the local data safety commissioner and the responsible ethics committee (reference no. 837.320.12 (8421-F)). Trial results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international scientific meetings. NCT02156401. Published by the

  8. Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citrome, Leslie

    2009-09-01

    Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

  9. Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, William; Ganna, Andrea; Ingelsson, Erik; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population. Using simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease. We estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval. We conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  11. Multi-objective portfolio optimization of mutual funds under downside risk measure using fuzzy theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Amiri

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Mutual fund is one of the most popular techniques for many people to invest their funds where a professional fund manager invests people's funds based on some special predefined objectives; therefore, performance evaluation of mutual funds is an important problem. This paper proposes a multi-objective portfolio optimization to offer asset allocation. The proposed model clusters mutual funds with two methods based on six characteristics including rate of return, variance, semivariance, turnover rate, Treynor index and Sharpe index. Semivariance is used as a downside risk measure. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy variables for return rate and semivariance. A multi-objective fuzzy mean-semivariance portfolio optimization model is implemented and fuzzy programming technique is adopted to solve the resulted problem. The proposed model of this paper has gathered the information of mutual fund traded on Nasdaq from 2007 to 2009 and Pareto optimal solutions are obtained considering different weights for objective functions. The results of asset allocation, rate of return and risk of each cluster are also determined and they are compared with the results of two clustering methods.

  12. Ergonomic risk and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in the dentistry environment: an umbrella review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone De Sio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Dental practitioners are exposed to different occupational hazards during the course of their professional activity, such as physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic factors. The ergonomic hazards, caused by strained posture and prolonged repetitive movements, can induce musculoskeletal disorders. It occurs in 54–93% of dental professionals and involve the spine, shoulder and hand-wrist tract. Through a systematic review of international literature, we analyzed specific ergonomic risk factors and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in professional dental activity. Methods This systematic review is coherent with the PRISMA statement. The scientific research on the major online databases was based on the following keywords: dentist, prevention, ergonomic, dentistry, musculoskeletal, neck pain, posture, ergonomics, work and occupational. The studies included in this review focus on disorders related to ergonomics and on the most effective preventive measures to be adopted. No restrictions were applied for language or publication type. We excluded reports not related to ergonomic prevention in dentistry, reports of minor academic significance, editorial articles, individual contributions, and studies published in scientific conferences. Results Online research indicated 4188 references: PubMed (2919, Scopus (1257 e Cochrane Library (12. We excluded 3012 of these, because they were unrelated to ergonomics theme and 187 due to duplication. From the remaining 989 studies, 960 papers did not meet inclusion criteria and they were excluded. Therefore, we analyzed 29 articles, including 16 narrative reviews and 13 original article. The main risk factor for the development of musculoskeletal disorders found in our analysis is static posture adopted during work, highlighted in 87.5% of reviews and 84% of original articles. With regard to preventive measures, 75% of the reviews highlighted the importance of stretching after each

  13. Ergonomic risk and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in the dentistry environment: an umbrella review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sio, Simone; Traversini, Veronica; Rinaldo, Francesca; Colasanti, Valerio; Buomprisco, Giuseppe; Perri, Roberto; Mormone, Federica; La Torre, Giuseppe; Guerra, Fabrizio

    2018-01-01

    Dental practitioners are exposed to different occupational hazards during the course of their professional activity, such as physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic factors. The ergonomic hazards, caused by strained posture and prolonged repetitive movements, can induce musculoskeletal disorders. It occurs in 54-93% of dental professionals and involve the spine, shoulder and hand-wrist tract. Through a systematic review of international literature, we analyzed specific ergonomic risk factors and preventive measures of musculoskeletal disorders in professional dental activity. This systematic review is coherent with the PRISMA statement. The scientific research on the major online databases was based on the following keywords: dentist, prevention, ergonomic, dentistry, musculoskeletal, neck pain, posture, ergonomics, work and occupational. The studies included in this review focus on disorders related to ergonomics and on the most effective preventive measures to be adopted. No restrictions were applied for language or publication type. We excluded reports not related to ergonomic prevention in dentistry, reports of minor academic significance, editorial articles, individual contributions, and studies published in scientific conferences. Online research indicated 4188 references: PubMed (2919), Scopus (1257) e Cochrane Library (12). We excluded 3012 of these, because they were unrelated to ergonomics theme and 187 due to duplication. From the remaining 989 studies, 960 papers did not meet inclusion criteria and they were excluded. Therefore, we analyzed 29 articles, including 16 narrative reviews and 13 original article. The main risk factor for the development of musculoskeletal disorders found in our analysis is static posture adopted during work, highlighted in 87.5% of reviews and 84% of original articles. With regard to preventive measures, 75% of the reviews highlighted the importance of stretching after each working session and at the end of the working day

  14. Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaan Sözmen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

  15. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  16. Radon measurements in Ghana: health risk assesment at the Lake Bosomtwi basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andam, A.A.B.; Addison, E.C.K.; Nani, E.K.; Amankwah, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    The need to assess the risk of exposure to radon and its daughters stems from the reality, that radon is a potential carcinogenic. We report Radon-222 risk assessment, from measurements on soil and sediments taken from six towns along the Lake Bosomtwi basin at two levels of 10cm and 20cm. The current and future prospects of Lake Bosomtwi, the largest natural lake in Ghana, make this assessment imperative, since radon forms half of natural background radiation. Spatial Analyser Decision Assistant (SADA) algorithms were used to model the measured radon concentrations under two land-use scenarios, namely residential and recreational. Setting the data under a targeted risk of 1E-6,we found that the external exposure was below that of the maximum concentrations to the measurements. This indicates that the radon levels around those towns as of the time of the measurements is low and below limits which can cause carcinogenic threats. The mean risk associated with the sampled locations was found to be 9E-11 at the recreational areas and 2E-8 at residential centres. To confirm the authenticity of the point risk analysis, geospatial modelling based on inverse distance interpolation schemes were performed. The results tally closely with that of the measured point risk analysis with and error margin of 2% and 1.3 % for both land use scenarios at 10 cm and 20 cm depth respectively. (au)

  17. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinella Cadoni

    Full Text Available It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  18. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  19. Risk measurement for oil and gas exploration: the marriage of geological and financial techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, T.

    2002-09-01

    A method is presented for fully risking projects, such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value of an exploration project overstates the 'value', because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation. if the expected value is calculable, then the risk-adjusted value (RAV) can also be calculated. The RAV depends additionally upon the size of the exploration budget, compared with the project, and also upon the 'price of risk'. That price is incorporated from the finance literature. The technique permits answering three related questions: 1) the risk-adjusted rate of return for a given project; 2) the risk-adjusted value of that project; or 3) the risk premium appropriate for a particular project, given the size of the firm's exploration budget. (author)

  20. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

    2014-03-01

    This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

  1. Risks for upper respiratory infections in infants during their first months in day care included environmental and child-related factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Rikke Pilmann; Larnkjaer, Anni; Ritz, Christian; Hojsak, Iva; Michaelsen, Kim; Mølgaard, Christian

    2018-03-14

    We examined the frequency and potential risk factors for respiratory infections, diarrhoea and absences in infants during their first months in day care. This prospective cohort study comprised 269 Danish infants aged eight months to 14 months and was part of a study that examined how probiotics affected absences from day care due to respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. The risk factors examined were the household, child characteristics and type of day care facility. Parents registered upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), diarrhoea and day care absences on web-based questionnaires. Over a mean of 5.6 months in day care, 36% and 20% of the infants had at least one URTI or LRTI, and 60% had diarrhoeal episodes. The risk of at least one URTI was increased by previous respiratory infections, with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.65, but was inversely associated with having a pet (OR: 0.43), being cared for by registered child minders compared to day care centres (OR: 0.36), birthweight (OR 0.40) and age at day care enrolment (OR: 0.64). No significant risk factors for LRTIs and diarrhoea were found. Infection risks were associated with environmental factors and factors related to the child. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Aggravation of Risk and Precautionary Measures in Non-Life Insurance: A Tricky Scope for the Insurer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olavi-Jüri Luik

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aggravation of risk and failure to take precautionary measures are focal issues in non-life insurance in terms of potential partial or full release of the insurer from the duty to perform. Not infrequently, it is difficult to draw a line between the aggravation of risk on the one hand, and non-compliance with precautionary measures on the other, since a particular action by a policyholder may present both situations. At the same time, the legal remedies available to the insurer regarding these two situations are different in scope. The aggravation of risk and non-compliance with precautionary measures are precisely the bases on which insurers actually reduce indemnity or refuse to compensate for damages. This article explores the differences between insurance laws in the Baltic states—specifically, the Estonian Law of Obligations Act, the Latvian Insurance Contract Law and Lithuanian rules contained in the Civil Code and Insurance Law. The article explores the differences between the Baltic states’ insurance laws and the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law (PEICL with regard to a policyholder’s duty in relation to aggravation of risk and precautionary measures, as the rights and obligations of policyholders do change where the optional instrument is applied. The article also includes comparisons to German, Finnish and Russian insurance law.

  3. Risks for upper respiratory infections in infants during their first months in day care included environmental and child-related factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Rikke Pilmann; Larnkjær, Anni; Ritz, Christian

    2018-01-01

    AIM: We examined the frequency and potential risk factors for respiratory infections, diarrhoea and absences in infants during their first months in day care. METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised 269 Danish infants aged 8-14 months and was part of a study that examined how probiotics...... affected absences from day care due to respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. The risk factors examined were the household, child characteristics and type of day care facility. Parents registered upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), diarrhoea and day...... care absences on web-based questionnaires. RESULTS: Over a mean of 5.6 months in day care, 36% and 20% of the infants had at least one URTI or LRTI and 60% had diarrhoeal episodes. The risk of at least one URTI was increased by previous respiratory infections, with an odds ratio (OR) of 2...

  4. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  5. Analysis of the effectiveness of the variance and Downside Risk measures for formation of investment portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariúcha Nóbrega Bezerra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the efficacy of variance and measures of downside risk for of formation of investment portfolios in the Brazilian stock market. Using the methodologies of Ang (1975, Markowitz et al. (1993, Ballestero (2005, Estrada (2008 and Cumova and Nawrocki (2011, sought to find what the best method to solve the problem of asymmetric and endogenous matrix and, inspired by the work of Markowitz (1952 and Lohre, Neumann and Winterfeldt (2010, intended to be seen which risk metric is most suitable for the realization of more efficient allocation of resources in the stock market in Brazil. The sample was composed of stocks of IBrX 50, from 2000 to 2013. The results indicated that when the semivariance was used as a measure of asymmetric risk, if the investor can use more refined models for solving the problem of asymmetric semivariance-cosemivariance matrix, the model of Cumova and Nawrocki (2011 will be more effective. Furthermore, from the Brazilian data, VaR had become more effective than variance and other measures of downside risk with respect to minimizing the risk of loss. Thus, taken the assumption that the investor has asymmetric preferences regarding risk, forming portfolios of stocks in the Brazilian market is more efficient when using criteria of minimizing downside risk than the traditional mean-variance approach.

  6. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction model for recurrence probabilities after intravesical chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including external validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, R.J.M.; Hendriks, J.C.M.; Rodriguez Faba, O.; Witjes, W.P.J.; Palou, J.; Witjes, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To develop a model to predict recurrence for patients with intermediate-risk (IR) non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) treated with intravesical chemotherapy which can be challenging because of the heterogeneous characteristics of these patients. METHODS: Data from three Dutch trials

  8. Menarche, menopause, and breast cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis, including 118 964 women with breast cancer from 117 epidemiological studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beral, V.; Bull, D.; Pirie, K.

    2012-01-01

    Background Menarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected w...

  9. A model including sarcopenia surpasses the MELD score in predicting waiting list mortality in cirrhotic liver transplant candidates : A competing risk analysis in a national cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Jeroen Laurens Ad; Alferink, Louise Johanna Maria; Buettner, Stefan; Gaspersz, Marcia Patricia; Bot, Daphne; Murad, Sarwa Darwish; Feshtali, Shirin; van Ooijen, Peter Martinus Adranius; Polak, Wojciech Grzegorz; Porte, Robert Jan; van Hoek, Bart; van den Berg, Aad Pieter; Metselaar, Herold Johnny; IJzermans, Jan Nicolaas Maria

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Frail patients with low MELD scores may be underprioritised. Low skeletal muscle mass (i.e. sarcopenia) has been identified as risk factor for waiting list mortality and a recent study proposed to incorporate sarcopenia in the MELD score (i.e. MELD-Sarcopenia score). We aimed to

  10. Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yijun

    The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

  11. Uncertainty in Measurement: A Review of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Microsoft Excel for the Calculation of Uncertainties Through Functional Relationships, Including Uncertainties in Empirically Derived Constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

    2014-01-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional

  12. Uncertainty in measurement: a review of monte carlo simulation using microsoft excel for the calculation of uncertainties through functional relationships, including uncertainties in empirically derived constants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

    2014-02-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more 'constants', each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived 'constants' must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship

  13. The four Es of problem gambling: a psychological measure of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockloff, Matthew J; Dyer, Victoria

    2006-01-01

    A focus group of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members identified four psychological traits contributing to risk for problem gambling, including: Escape, Esteem, Excess and Excitement. A panel of four experts authored 240 Likert-type items to measure these traits. By design, none of the items explicitly referred to gambling activities. Study 1 narrowed the field of useful items by employing a quasi-experimental design which compared the answers of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members (N = 39) to a control sample (N = 34). Study 2 submitted successful items, plus new items authored with the knowledge gained from Study 1, to validation in a random sample telephone survey across Queensland, Australia (N=2577). The final 40 item Four Es scale (4Es) was reliable (alpha=.90); predicted gambling problems as measured by the Canadian Problem Gambling Index of Severity (PGSI, Ferris & Wynne (2001). The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final Report: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse); and distinguished problem gamblers from persons with alcohol abuse problems. The new scale can provide a basis for further study in harm minimization, treatment, and theory development.

  14. Simulation and measurement of complete dye sensitised solar cells: including the influence of trapping, electrolyte, oxidised dyes and light intensity on steady state and transient device behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Piers R F; Anderson, Assaf Y; Durrant, James R; O'Regan, Brian C

    2011-04-07

    A numerical model of the dye sensitised solar cell (DSSC) is used to assess the importance of different loss pathways under various operational conditions. Based on our current understanding, the simulation describes the processes of injection, regeneration, recombination and transport of electrons, oxidised dye molecules and electrolyte within complete devices to give both time dependent and independent descriptions of performance. The results indicate that the flux of electrons lost from the nanocrystalline TiO(2) film is typically at least twice as large under conditions equivalent to 1 sun relative to dark conditions at matched TiO(2) charge concentration. This is in agreement with experimental observations (Barnes et al. Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. [DOI: 10.1039/c0cp01855d]). The simulated difference in recombination flux is shown to be due to variation in the concentration profile of electron accepting species in the TiO(2) pores between light and dark conditions and to recombination to oxidised dyes in the light. The model is able to easily incorporate non-ideal behaviour of a cell such as the variation of open circuit potential with light intensity and non-first order recombination of conduction band electrons. The time dependent simulations, described by the multiple trapping model of electron transport and recombination, show good agreement with both small and large transient photocurrent and photovoltage measurements at open circuit, including photovoltage rise measurements. The simulation of photovoltage rise also suggests the possibility of assessing the interfacial resistance between the TiO(2) and substrate. When cells with a short diffusion length relative to film thickness were modelled, the simulated small perturbation photocurrent transients at short circuit (but not open circuit) yielded significantly higher effective diffusion coefficients than expected from the mean concentration of electrons and the electrolyte in the cell. This implies that

  15. Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, Jamil

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

  16. Identifying measures to balance the risk profile of the Tihange 2 NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Eer, A.M.; Monniez, J.J.

    2001-01-01

    In Belgium, each Nuclear Power Plant is subject to a periodic safety reassessment. In this context, it was found to be desirable to perform a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in support of the ten yearly back-fitting process. The Tihange 2 NPP is a 3-loop PWR having a thermal capacity of 2905 MW. Analysis of the plant's risk profile shows that implementing feasible measures for improvement of the shutdown risk, would be beneficial. This is because a configuration leading to significant risk, namely cold pressurization when the residual heat removal system is lost during reduced primary inventory, thus can be avoided. As a result the risk between reactor shutdown and power operation will be balanced. The presentation describes the lessons learnt regarding the Tihange 2 shutdown PSA model and the expected benefits following implementation of one of the proposed measures. (author)

  17. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Risk factors and control measures for the infection abatement

    Science.gov (United States)

    ASLAM, SAADIA; LATIF, MUHAMMAD SHAHZAD; DAUD, MUHAMMAD; RAHMAN, ZIA UR; TABASSUM, BUSHRA; RIAZ, MUHAMMAD SOHAIL; KHAN, ANWAR; TARIQ, MUHAMMAD; HUSNAIN, TAYYAB

    2016-01-01

    Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a vector-borne viral disease, widely distributed in different regions of the world. The fever is caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), which belongs to the Nairovirus genus and Bunyaviridae family. The virus is clustered in seven genotypes, which are Africa-1, Africa-2, Africa-3, Europe-1, Europe-2, Asia-1 and Asia-2. The virus is highly pathogenic in nature, easily transmissible and has a high case fatality rate of 10–40%. The reservoir and vector of CCHFV are the ticks of the Hyalomma genus. Therefore, the circulation of this virus depends upon the distribution of the ticks. The virus can be transmitted from tick to animal, animal to human and human to human. The major symptoms include headache, high fever, abdominal pain, myalgia, hypotension and flushed face. As the disease progresses, severe symptoms start appearing, which include petechiae, ecchymosis, epistaxis, bleeding gums and emesis. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, antigen detection, serum neutralization and isolation of the virus by cell culture are the diagnostic techniques used for this viral infection. There is no specific antiviral therapy available thus far. However, ribavirin has been approved by the World Health Organization for the treatment of CCHFV infection. Awareness campaigns regarding the risk factors and control measures can aid in reducing the spread of this disease to a greater extent, particularly in developing countries. PMID:26870327

  18. A lung cancer risk classifier comprising genome maintenance genes measured in normal bronchial epithelial cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Jiyoun; Crawford, Erin L; Zhang, Xiaolu; Khuder, Sadik; Chen, Tian; Levin, Albert; Blomquist, Thomas M; Willey, James C

    2017-05-02

    Annual low dose CT (LDCT) screening of individuals at high demographic risk reduces lung cancer mortality by more than 20%. However, subjects selected for screening based on demographic criteria typically have less than a 10% lifetime risk for lung cancer. Thus, there is need for a biomarker that better stratifies subjects for LDCT screening. Toward this goal, we previously reported a lung cancer risk test (LCRT) biomarker comprising 14 genome-maintenance (GM) pathway genes measured in normal bronchial epithelial cells (NBEC) that accurately classified cancer (CA) from non-cancer (NC) subjects. The primary goal of the studies reported here was to optimize the LCRT biomarker for high specificity and ease of clinical implementation. Targeted competitive multiplex PCR amplicon libraries were prepared for next generation sequencing (NGS) analysis of transcript abundance at 68 sites among 33 GM target genes in NBEC specimens collected from a retrospective cohort of 120 subjects, including 61 CA cases and 59 NC controls. Genes were selected for analysis based on contribution to the previously reported LCRT biomarker and/or prior evidence for association with lung cancer risk. Linear discriminant analysis was used to identify the most accurate classifier suitable to stratify subjects for screening. After cross-validation, a model comprising expression values from 12 genes (CDKN1A, E2F1, ERCC1, ERCC4, ERCC5, GPX1, GSTP1, KEAP1, RB1, TP53, TP63, and XRCC1) and demographic factors age, gender, and pack-years smoking, had Receiver Operator Characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 0.975 (95% CI: 0.96-0.99). The overall classification accuracy was 93% (95% CI 88%-98%) with sensitivity 93.1%, specificity 92.9%, positive predictive value 93.1% and negative predictive value 93%. The ROC AUC for this classifier was significantly better (p < 0.0001) than the best model comprising demographic features alone. The LCRT biomarker reported here displayed high accuracy and ease

  19. Differences in Measuring Market Risk in Four Subsectors of the Digital Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Sonia Benito; Rebeca de Juan; Ricardo Gómez; Francisco Mochón

    2015-01-01

    This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to estimate market risk of the four subsectors of the digital economy. The riskiest subsector is Mobile/Inter...

  20. Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    to obtain risk-averse and robust solutions, respectively. Computational results are presented on a real-life case study to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approaches. To compare these different decision-making situations, a simulation approach is used. Furthermore, by several test problems......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

  1. Aquaplaning : Development of a Risk Pond Model from Road Surface Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Nygårdhs, Sara

    2003-01-01

    Aquaplaning accidents are relatively rare, but could have fatal effects. The task of this master’s thesis is to use data from the Laser Road Surface Tester to detect road sections with risk of aquaplaning. A three-dimensional model based on data from road surface measurements is created using MATLAB (version 6.1). From this general geometrical model of the road, a pond model is produced from which the theoretical risk ponds are detected. A risk pond indication table is fur-ther created. The...

  2. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  3. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Risk of Being Subjected to Crime, Including Violent Crime, After Onset of Mental Illness: A Danish National Registry Study Using Police Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Kimberlie; Laursen, Thomas M; Pedersen, Carsten B; Webb, Roger T; Mortensen, Preben B; Agerbo, Esben

    2018-05-23

    People with mental illness are more likely to have contact with the criminal justice system, but research to date has focused on risk of offense perpetration, while less is known about risk of being subjected to crime and violence. To establish the incidence of being subjected to all types of criminal offenses, and by violent crimes separately, after onset of mental illness across the full diagnostic spectrum compared with those in the population without mental illness. This investigation was a longitudinal national cohort study using register data in Denmark. Participants were a cohort of more than 2 million persons born between 1965 and 1998 and followed up from 2001 or from their 15th birthday until December 31, 2013. Analysis was undertaken from November 2016 until February 2018. Cohort members were followed up for onset of mental illness, recorded as first contact with outpatient or inpatient mental health services. Diagnoses across the full spectrum of psychiatric diagnoses were considered separately for men and women. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated for first subjection to crime event (any crime and violent crime) reported to police after onset of mental illness. The IRRs were adjusted for cohort member's own criminal offending, in addition to several sociodemographic factors. In a total cohort of 2 058 063 (48.7% male; 51.3% female), the adjusted IRRs for being subjected to crime associated with any mental disorder were 1.49 (95% CI, 1.46-1.51) for men and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.61-1.66) for women. The IRRs were higher for being subjected to violent crime at 1.76 (95% CI, 1.72-1.80) for men and 2.72 (95% CI, 2.65-2.79) for women. The strongest associations were for persons diagnosed as having substance use disorders and personality disorders, but significant risk elevations were found across almost all diagnostic groups examined. Onset of mental illness is associated with increased risk of exposure to crime, and violent crime in particular

  5. Predictive value of ovarian stroma measurement for cardiovascular risk in polycyctic ovary syndrome: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loverro Giuseppe

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To verify the feasibility of ovarian stromal evaluation and correlate ovarian parameteres (echogenicity and volume with hyperandrogenism, and both cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in PCOS. Methods Twenty four young PCOS patients and twelve age-matched control women were enrolled. Diagnosis of PCOS was based on the Rotterdam criteria. Ultrasound ovarian study included ovarian volume, stromal volume, stromal area and stromal area/total ovarian area ratio (S/A. Concerning hormones, insulin, LH, FSH, estradiol, androstenedione, testosterone, DHEAS, 17-hydroxy-progesterone, and SHBG were measured during the early follicular phase (days 2-5. Cardiovascular risk factors were represented by fasting plasma levels of glucose, lipids (total and HDL-cholesterol, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1, von-Willebrand factor (vWF, and adiponectin. Carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT was measured as a parameter of cardiovascular risk. Results A positive correlation between the S/A ratio and plasma levels of testosterone (p Conclusions This study shows that the ultrasound measurement of ovarian stroma is a predicting factor of hyperandrogenism degree, prothrombotic factors and cardiovascular risk in patients with PCOS.

  6. Relative risk measure suitable for comparison of design alternatives of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferjencik, M.

    1997-01-01

    Accessible reports on risk assessment of interim spent nuclear fuel storage facilities presume that only releases of radioactive substances represent undesired consequences. However, only certain part of the undesired consequences is represented by them. Many other events are connected with safety and are able to cause losses to the operating company. The following two presumptions are pronounced based on this. 1. Any event causing a disturbance of a safety function of the storage facility is an incident event. 2. Any disturbance of a safety function is an undesired consequence. If the facility safety functions are identified and if the severity of their disturbances is quantified, then it is possible to combine consequence severity quantifications and event frequencies into a risk measure. Construction and application of such a risk measure is described in this paper. The measure is shown to be a tool suitable for comparison of interim storage technology design alternatives. (author)

  7. Ability of Different Measures of Adiposity to Identify High Metabolic Risk in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Moreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to evaluate the screening performance of different measures of adiposity: body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR for high metabolic risk in a sample of adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 517 adolescents aged 15–18, from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure. HOMA and TC/HDL-C ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score (MRS was constructed by summing the Z-scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ≥1SD of this score. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC were used. Results. Linear regression analyses showed that, after adjusting for age and pubertal stage, all different measures of adiposity are positively and significantly associated with MRS in both sexes, with exception of WHtR for boys. BMI, WC, and WHtR performed well in detecting high MRS, indicated by areas under the curve (AUC, with slightly greater AUC for BMI than for WC and WHtR in both sexes. Conclusion. All measures of adiposity were significantly associated with metabolic risk factors in a sample of Portuguese adolescents.

  8. Risk Assessment Generated by Usage of ICT and Information Security Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilie TAMAS

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information societies involve the usage of information technology and communications (ITC on a large scale. The dependence on ITC is an unquestionable problem in the present, because we assist to a generality of computers usage in all economic and social life activities. That is why organization information systems became accessible at the global level and there are permanently open for a quick exchange of information between different categories of users located by different geographical nods. The ITC usage involves the existing of some risks that should be known, evaluation and based on these, we must have information systems security measure. We consider that the risk is an indicator very important that must be permanently assess in the usage process of the information system based on ITC. Risk management suppose a permanently evaluation of these problems and also restrain by some practical actions who goes to the decrease of its effects. From the expose point of view, in this paper work it is presented the results of research based on specialty literature and current cases from practical activities, regarding the risks of ITC usage and their diminishing measure. There are distinguished the main factors (threat, vulnerability and impact who affect the information risk and on the other way, diminishing measure of the action to these factors for optimum working of an economic and social organism who use ITC. We consider that through proposed measures we assume safety in design process, implement and usage of the informational systems based on ITC.

  9. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-05-03

    The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

  10. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  11. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  12. The reliability of transabdominal cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population: Comparison with transvaginal measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Cheng-Ran; Chen, Chie-Pein; Wang, Kuo-Gon; Wang, Liang-Kai; Chen, Chen-Yu; Chen, Yi-Yung

    2015-04-01

    To determine the correlation between transabdominal (TA) and transvaginal (TV) cervical length measurement in a low-risk obstetric population in Taiwan. Women with a singleton pregnancy between 20 weeks and 24 weeks of gestation underwent postvoid TA and TV cervical length measurements. Differences between the measurements obtained using the two methods were evaluated. Two hundred and five women agreed to participate in the study. Paired TA and TV measurements were obtained in 174 women. The mean TA cervical length was 36.0 ± 4.9 mm and the mean TV cervical length was 37.6 ± 5.4 mm. The mean TA cervical length was shorter than the mean TV cervical length by 1.6 mm. The 5(th) percentile of TA and TV cervical length was 29 mm and 29.1 mm, respectively. The discrepancies between the two methods were not significantly correlated with maternal body mass index (BMI). All women with TV cervical length women in the present study, and the TA cervical length was closely correlated with the TV cervical length. The use of TA ultrasound could be an effective initial tool for cervical length screening in low-risk pregnant women. TA cervical length TV ultrasound. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. A novel measure of poverty and its association with elevated sexual risk behavior among young Black MSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Leandro; Crosby, Richard A; Geter, Angelica

    2017-05-01

    This study determined whether a novel (single-item) measure of poverty is associated with elevated sexual risk among young Black men who have sex with men who reside in a US city with high HIV seroprevalence. A convenience sample of 600 Black men who have sex with men (ages 16-29) completed a computer-assisted self-interview. The questionnaire included an item asking men, 'In the past 12 months have you missed meals because you did not have enough money to eat?' Selected measures of sexual risk and prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and HIV were assessed as outcomes of this novel measure of poverty. About 22% had missed meals due to lack of money. In age-adjusted analyses, these men were more likely to report: (1) having concurrent sex partners ( P = .03), (2) having sex with partners who were generally five or more years older ( P = .02), (3) not using condoms the first time they had sex with their most recent new partner ( P = .015), (4) having sex with persons not known by name ( P = .02), (5) depending on sex partners for food, money, and shelter ( P poverty may be predictive of many sexual risk behaviors. Clinicians may benefit this population by including this question as part of their patient interview and prioritizing services when indicated.

  14. A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Three Risk Tolerance Measures: Turkey and the United States Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ruiz-Manjivar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An individual’s attitude toward financial risk tolerance (FRT is an important preference that influences financial decision-making under uncertainty. FRT involves inter-temporal resource allocation. Accurate and reliable measures of FRT are essential for professionals advising consumers as well as researchers who are trying to predict, and understand consumer behavior. This study explores cross-cultural risk tolerance by comparing random samples from Turkey, and the United States. Similar and distinctive attitudes and patterns regarding FRT are identified. Three subjective measures of FRT are employed in this study: Grable and Lytton (1999, Hanna, Gutter and Fan’s (2001 improved version of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997, and the Survey of Consumer Finance’s item on risk tolerance. Data was collected via an online survey that used the above-mentioned FRT measures. There were two versions: the original American English version, and a culturally translated Turkish version. To explore the correlation of FRT among measures, we use bivariate analysis by individually employing Pearson Chi-square test of independence, and cross tabulations analysis to each sample. In addition, by pooling both samples, we conduct cumulative logistic regression. We delineate FRT differences and consistencies between countries across subjective financial risk tolerance measures.

  15. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

  16. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Lopez-Guzman

    Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  17. Using alternative or direct anthropometric measurements to assess risk for malnutrition in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorini, Chiara; Collini, Francesca; Castagnoli, Mariangela; Di Bari, Mauro; Cavallini, Maria Chiara; Zaffarana, Nicoletta; Pepe, Pasquale; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Vannacci, Alfredo; Bonaccorsi, Guglielmo

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) to assess the applicability of alternative versus direct anthropometric measurements for evaluating the risk for malnutrition in older individuals living in nursing homes (NHs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 67 NHs in Tuscany, Italy. We measured the weight, standing height (SH), knee height (KH), ulna length (UL), and middle-upper-arm circumference of 641 NH residents. Correlations between the different methods for calculating body mass index (BMI; using direct or alternative measurements) were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman method; agreement in the allocation of participants to the same risk category was assessed by squared weighted kappa statistic and indicators of internal relative validity. The intraclass correlation coefficient for BMI calculated using KH was 0.839 (0.815-0.861), whereas those calculated by UL were 0.890 (0.872-0.905). The limits of agreement were ±6.13 kg/m(2) using KH and ±4.66 kg/m(2) using UL. For BMI calculated using SH, 79.9% of the patients were at low risk, 8.1% at medium risk, and 12.2% at high risk for malnutrition. The agreement between this classification and that obtained using BMI calculated by alternative measurements was "fair-good." When it is not possible to determine risk category by using SH, we suggest using the alternative measurements (primarily UL, due to its highest sensitivity) to predict the height and to compare these evaluations with those obtained by using middle-upper-arm-circumference to predict the BMI. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  19. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  20. Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, A.; Bots, M.L.; Rutten, F.H.; den Ruijter, H.M.; Numans, M.E.; Vaartjes, I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim: To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a

  1. A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

  2. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, K M; Paiva, L L; Sanchez, S E; Revilla, L; Lopez, T; Yasuda, M B; Yanez, N D; Gelaye, B; Williams, M A

    2011-01-24

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  3. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Knowles

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP. Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR, waist-height ratio (WHtR, and visceral adiposity index (VAI were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG. For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  4. A measure of fall risk behaviors and perceptions among community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Hon Keung; Carter, Rickey E

    2006-01-01

    Relatively little is known about the interaction between behavioral and environmental circumstances associated with falls among community-dwelling older adults. This study is designed to develop an instrument that measures community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Eighty-seven community-dwelling older adults aged 60 or above (mean +/- SD = 76 +/- 7.9), who had experienced at least one fall in the past 12 months, completed a questionnaire dealing with frequency of their participation in fall risk behaviors, their perceptions of these behaviors, and their fall history. Data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. A 20-item instrument consisting of three constructs was presented as the Fall Risk Behaviors and Perceptions Scale (FRB&PS). Two of the three constructs of the instrument were de-stabilizers and non-supports, both of which measure participation in fall risk behaviors; the third was perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Internal consistency coefficient of the FRB&PS is 0.733 with a root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) score of 0.075, which indicates an adequate model fit. Results from the stepwise regression analyses indicated that adults aged 75 and above (the old-old) participated less frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.025), and had more knowledge about fall risks as measured by a higher perception score (p = 0.025) than those aged 60 to 75 (the young-old). Older men tended to participate more frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.020) than older women; in addition, those older adults who are more mobile (p = 0.002) also participated more frequently in fall risk behaviors than those who are less mobile. Preliminary findings indicate that the pilot FRB&PS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Additional psychometric validation of the FRB&PS on predicting the likelihood of falls is

  5. The Relationship between Market and Accounting Determined Risk Measures: Reviewing and Updating the Beaver, Kettler, Scholes (1970) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvela, Michael; Kozyra, James; Potter, Carla

    2009-01-01

    The association between market-determined risk measures and accounting-determined risk measures was originally explored in the 1970s by Beaver, Kettler, and Scholes (BKS). The results of the BKS (1970) study suggest that accounting information is usefulness in assessing firm specific risk. Since BKS, there have been few studies conducted to…

  6. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  7. Using patient reported outcome measures in health services: A qualitative study on including people with low literacy skills and learning disabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jahagirdar, D.; Kroll, T.; Ritchie, K.; Wyke, S.

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are self-report measures of health status increasingly promoted for use in healthcare quality improvement. However people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities may find PROMs hard to complete. Our study investigated

  8. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX? to improve identification of high-risk fallers

    OpenAIRE

    Najafi, David A.; Dahlberg, Leif E.; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-01-01

    Background The FRAX? algorithm quantifies a patient?s 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual?s balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX? algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX? algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that ...

  9. Measuring the default risk of sovereign debt from the perspective of network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Hongwei; Ho, Hwai-Chung

    2013-05-01

    Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in the fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according to the debt-credit relations instead of using the conventional methodology to measure the default risk. Based on the model, a risk index is examined using the quarterly report of consolidated foreign claims from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and debt/GDP ratios among these reporting countries. The empirical results show that this index can help the regulators and practitioners not only to determine the status of interconnectivity but also to point out the degree of the sovereign debt default risk. Our approach sheds new light on the investigation of quantifying the systemic risk.

  10. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    -quartile dense breast volume had a BCSC 5-year risk of 2.5%, whereas women with dense breasts and first-quartile dense breast volume had a 5-year risk ≤ 1.8%. Risk models with automated dense breast volume combined with BI-RADS breast density may better identify women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk than risk models with either measure alone.

  11. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1{sup st} and 2{sup nd} terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1{sup st} term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2{sup nd} term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk.

  12. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1 st and 2 nd terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1 st term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2 nd term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk

  13. Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

  14. Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

    2017-01-01

    Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Dunning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years. Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%. However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032 if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009 and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006— an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  16. Levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like PCBs in free range eggs from Vietnam, including potential health risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, T.T.; Traag, W.A.; Murk, A.J.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.

    2014-01-01

    Chicken and duck eggs collected from three different areas in Vietnam were examined for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs). These regions included a background area, an area sprayed with Agent Orange and the Bien Hoa airbase area where Agent Orange was handled by the US

  17. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks: Risk-Based Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... reverse within the year. Such projections should include the estimated effect of tax-planning strategies... charges for certain market risks into the risk-based capital ratio. When calculating their risk-based... supplemental rules to determine qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market...

  18. Preventable and mitigable adverse events in cancer care: Measuring risk and harm across the continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipitz-Snyderman, Allison; Pfister, David; Classen, David; Atoria, Coral L; Killen, Aileen; Epstein, Andrew S; Anderson, Christopher; Fortier, Elizabeth; Weingart, Saul N

    2017-12-01

    Patient safety is a critical concern in clinical oncology, but the ability to measure adverse events (AEs) across cancer care is limited by a narrow focus on treatment-related toxicities. The objective of this study was to assess the nature and extent of AEs among cancer patients across inpatient and outpatient settings. This was a retrospective cohort study of 400 adult patients selected by stratified random sampling who had breast (n = 128), colorectal (n = 136), or lung cancer (n = 136) treated at a comprehensive cancer center in 2012. Candidate AEs, or injuries due to medical care, were identified by trained nurse reviewers over the course of 1 year from medical records and safety-reporting databases. Physicians determined the AE harm severity and the likelihood of preventability and harm mitigation. The 400-patient sample represented 133,358 days of follow-up. Three hundred four AEs were identified for an overall rate of 2.3 events per 1000 patient days (91.2 per 1000 inpatient days and 0.9 per 1000 outpatient days). Thirty-four percent of the patients had 1 or more AEs (95% confidence interval, 29%-39%), and 16% of the patients had 1 or more preventable or mitigable AEs (95% confidence interval, 13%-20%). The AE rate for patients with breast cancer was lower than the rate for patients with colorectal or lung cancer (P ≤ .001). The preventable or mitigable AE rate was 0.9 per 1000 patient days. Six percent of AEs and 4% of preventable AEs resulted in serious harm. Examples included lymphedema, abscess, and renal failure. A heavy burden of AEs, including preventable or mitigable events, has been identified. Future research should examine risk factors and improvement strategies for reducing their burden. Cancer 2017;123:4728-4736. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  19. Outcome after relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in adult patients included in four consecutive risk-adapted trials by the PETHEMA Study Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriol, Albert; Vives, Susana; Hernández-Rivas, Jesús-María; Tormo, Mar; Heras, Inmaculada; Rivas, Concepción; Bethencourt, Concepción; Moscardó, Federico; Bueno, Javier; Grande, Carlos; del Potro, Eloy; Guardia, Ramon; Brunet, Salut; Bergua, Juan; Bernal, Teresa; Moreno, Maria-José; Calvo, Carlota; Bastida, Pilar; Feliu, Evarist; Ribera, Josep-Maria

    2010-04-01

    About one half of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia are not cured of the disease and ultimately die. The objective of this study was to explore the factors influencing the outcome of adult patients with relapsed acute lymphoblastic leukemia. We analyzed the characteristics, the outcome and the prognostic factors for survival after first relapse in a series of 263 adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (excluding those with mature B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia) prospectively enrolled in four consecutive risk-adapted PETHEMA trials. The median overall survival after relapse was 4.5 months (95% CI, 4-5 months) with a 5-year overall survival of 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%); 45% of patients receiving intensive second-line treatment achieved a second complete remission and 22% (95% CI, 14%-30%) of them remained disease free at 5 years. Factors predicting a good outcome after rescue therapy were age less than 30 years (2-year overall survival of 21% versus 10% for those over 30 years old; P<0.022) and a first remission lasting more than 2 years (2-year overall survival of 36% versus 17% among those with a shorter first remission; P<0.001). Patients under 30 years old whose first complete remission lasted longer than 2 years had a 5-year overall survival of 38% (95% CI, 23%-53%) and a 5-year disease-free survival of 53% (95% CI, 34%-72%). The prognosis of adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who relapse is poor. Those aged less than 30 years with a first complete remission lasting longer than 2 years have reasonable possibilities of becoming long-term survivors while patients over this age or those who relapse early cannot be successfully rescued using the therapies currently available.

  20. Measuring attitudes towards nuclear and technological risks (computer programs in SPSS language)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonin, T.V. Jr.

    1981-04-01

    A number of methodologies have been developed for measuring public attitudes towards nuclear and other technological risks. The Fishbein model, as modified by the IAEA Risk Assessment group, and which was found to be applicable for Philippine public attitude measurements, is briefly explained together with two other models which are utilized for comparative correlations. A step by step guide on the procedures involved and the calculations required in measuring and analyzing attitude using these models is likewise described, with special emphasis on the computer processing aspect. The use of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) in the analysis is also described and a number of computer programs in SPSS for the various statistical calculations required in the analysis is presented. (author)

  1. Measure Guideline: Summary of Interior Ducts in New Construction, Including an Efficient, Affordable Method to Install Fur-Down Interior Ducts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beal, D. [BA-PIRC, Cocoa, FL (United States); McIlvaine, J. [BA-PIRC, Cocoa, FL (United States); Fonorow, K. [BA-PIRC, Cocoa, FL (United States); Martin, E. [BA-PIRC, Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2011-11-01

    This document illustrates guidelines for the efficient installation of interior duct systems in new housing, including the fur-up chase method, the fur-down chase method, and interior ducts positioned in sealed attics or sealed crawl spaces.

  2. Modifiable risk factors promoting neurodegeneration is associated with two novel brain degradation markers measured in serum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neergaard, Jesper; Møller, Katrine Dragsbæk; Christiansen, Claus

    2017-01-01

    truncated tau fragments (Tau-A and Tau-C) in serum. Platelets, albumin and several modifiable risk factors, including Body Mass Index, high density lipoprotein and White Blood Cell count were associated with the serum level of tau fragments. The factors associated with tau in serum may promote...

  3. Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

    2015-09-01

    Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  4. Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Karina Marques Salge

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

  5. Improving risk assessments for manufactured gas plant soils by measuring PAH availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroo, Hans F; Nakles, David V; Kreitinger, Joseph P; Loehr, Raymond C; Hawthorne, Steven B; Luthy, Richard G; Holman, Hoi-Ying; LaPierre, Adrienne

    2005-07-01

    Remediation of soils at oil-gas manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites is driven primarily by the human health risks posed by the carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), that are associated with lampblack residues. Although PAHs on lampblack are tightly sorbed, risk assessments do not account for this reduced availability. A multi-investigator study of 7 oil-gas MGP site soil samples demonstrated that the dermal and ingestion absorption factors are far lower than current default assumptions used in risk assessments. Using these sample-specific absorption factors in standard risk assessment equations increased risk-based cleanup levels by a factor of 72 on average (with a range from 23 to 142 times the default level). The rapidly released fraction of the BaP in each sample, as measured by supercritical fluid extraction, was closely correlated (r2 = 0.96) to these calculated cleanup levels. The weight of evidence developed during this research indicates that the risks posed by PAHs on lampblack are far less than assumed when using default absorption factors and that a tiered evaluation protocol employing chemical analyses, chemical release data, and in vitro bioassays can be used to establish more realistic site-specific criteria.

  6. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  7. Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

    2017-11-01

    This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Benjamin M.; Takami, Marcelo; Rocha, Jadson M. C.; Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Souza, Sergio R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Recent literature has focused on the study of systemic risk in complex networks. It is clear now, after the crisis of 2008, that the aggregate behavior of the interaction among agents is not straightforward and it is very difficult to predict. Contributing to this debate, this paper shows that the directed clustering coefficient may be used as a measure of systemic risk in complex networks. Furthermore, using data from the Brazilian interbank network, we show that the directed clustering coefficient is negatively correlated with domestic interest rates.

  9. The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

    2016-10-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative

  10. 13 CFR 123.402 - Can your business include its relocation as a mitigation measure in an application for a pre...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... participating in the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program and SFHAs or visit the FEMA Web site at http://www.fema.gov. ... relocation as a mitigation measure in an application for a pre-disaster mitigation loan? 123.402 Section 123.402 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster...

  11. Identification of chronic heart failure patients with a high 12-month mortality risk using biomarkers including plasma C-terminal pro-endothelin-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewa A Jankowska

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We hypothesised that assessment of plasma C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1, a stable endothelin-1 precursor fragment, is of prognostic value in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, beyond other prognosticators, including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP. METHODS: We examined 491 patients with systolic CHF (age: 63±11 years, 91% men, New York Heart Association [NYHA] class [I/II/III/IV]: 9%/45%/38%/8%, 69% ischemic etiology. Plasma CT-proET-1 was detected using a chemiluminescence immunoassay. RESULTS: Increasing CT-proET-1 was a predictor of increased cardiovascular mortality at 12-months of follow-up (standardized hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.95, p = 0.03 after adjusting for NT-proBNP, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, age, creatinine, NYHA class. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, areas under curve for 12-month follow-up were similar for CT-proET-1 and NT-proBNP (p = 0.40. Both NT-proBNP and CT-proET-1 added prognostic value to a base model that included LVEF, age, creatinine, and NYHA class. Adding CT-proET-1 to the base model had stronger prognostic power (p<0.01 than adding NT-proBNP (p<0.01. Adding CT-proET-1 to NT-proBNP in this model yielded further prognostic information (p = 0.02. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma CT-proET-1 constitutes a novel predictor of increased 12-month cardiovascular mortality in patients with CHF. High CT-proET-1 together with high NT-proBNP enable to identify patients with CHF and particularly unfavourable outcomes.

  12. Subjective and objective measurement of the intelligibility of synthesized speech impaired by the very low bit rate STANAG 4591 codec including packet loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Počta, P.; Beerends, J.G.

    2017-01-01

    This paper deals with the intelligibility of speech coded by the STANAG 4591 standard codec, including packet loss, using synthesized speech input. Both subjective and objective assessments are used. It is shown that this codec significantly degrades intelligibility when compared to a standard

  13. Measurement of the structure functions F2 and xF3 and comparison with QCD predictions including kinematical and dynamical higher twist effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varvell, K.; Wells, J.; Sansum, R.A.; Bullock, F.W.; Fitch, P.J.; Armenise, N.; Calicchio, M.; Erriquez, O.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Ruggieri, F.; Baton, J.P.; Gerbier, G.; Kasper, P.; Kochowski, C.; Neveu, M.; Brisson, V.; Petiau, P.; Vallee, C.; Clayton, E.F.; Iaselli, G.; Mobayyen, M.M.; Petrides, A.; Jones, G.T.; Middleton, R.P.; O'Neale, S.W.; Mermikides, M.; Simopoulou, E.; Vayaki, A.

    1987-01-01

    The isoscalar nucleon structure functions F 2 (x,Q 2 ) and xF 3 (x,Q 2 ) are measured in the range 0 2 2 , 1.7 2 2 , x 2 values, it is found that a low Λsub(anti Manti S) value in the neighbourhood of 100 MeV describes the data adequately and that the contribution of dynamical higher twist effects is small and negative. (orig.)

  14. GLOBAL ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION POLLUTION: RISK ASSESSMENT FROM FIELD MEASUREMENTS AND ANIMAL EXPERIMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragkopoulou, A. F.; Margaritis, L. H.

    2009-12-01

    The extended use of wireless technology throughout the globe in almost all developed and non-developed countries has forced a large number of scientists to get involved in the investigation of the effects. The major issue is that unlike other forms of radiation exposure, this “non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation” was not present throughout the evolution of life in earth and therefore there are no adaptive mechanisms evolved. All organisms are vulnerable to the possible effects of radiation depending on the actual exposure level. “Safety limits” on the power density have been proposed but ongoing research has shown that these limits are not really safe for humans, not mentioning the entire population of living creatures on earth. The so called “Electrosmog Pollution” originating from the numerous radio and TV stations, communication satellite emission, but most importantly from mobile phone mast antennas, are of major concern, because it is gradually increasing at exponential rate. Therefore the key question is, do living organisms react upon their exposure to fields of non ionizing electromagnetic radiation? To have this question answered extensive research is being performed in various laboratories. One approach of our research includes field measurements within houses and classrooms, since a considerable proportion of the population in each country is exposed to the radiation coming from the nearby mast stations, in order to make a risk assessment. The measurements showed that in many cases the actual radiation present was potentially harmful. In other words, although the measured values were below the national safety levels, nevertheless they were above the levels of other countries. Therefore it has been suggested that a new cellular network should be constructed in order to minimize radiation levels in living areas and schools. Our experimental work is focusing on the elucidation of the effects of non-ionizing EMFs on mice exposed to mobile

  15. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  16. Human Health Risk Assessment of a landfill based on volatile organic compounds emission, immission and soil gas concentration measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martí, Vicenç; Jubany, Irene; Pérez, Consol; Rubio, Xavier; De Pablo, Joan; Giménez, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • VOCs were quantified as emission fluxes, immission and soil–gas levels. • HHRA was performed with these measurements and admissible risk was obtained. • VOCs that contributed more to risk indexes were chlorinated aliphatics hydrocarbons. • The methodology approach can be applied to other landfills with potential risk. - Abstract: A Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) was required for a closed landfill located in Cerdanyola del Vallès (Barcelona, Spain). The HHRA had two objectives, to evaluate the present risk of the identified receptors in the area and to safely develop the future urban planning of the area, therefore 3 scenarios for the current situation and 4 for the future situation were developed. After reviewing the existing data and exploring the needs of information, the assessment in this study was focused on the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) fluxes from the subsoil (emission from the landfill at 5 points), concentrations of VOCs in the air (immission in 4 urban sites) and concentration of VOCs in soil–gas (measurements at 5 m below ground surface outside the landfill at 8 sites). Around 70 VOCs were analyzed by using multi-sorbent tubes and Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography (TD–GC–MS). The VOCs that were detected and quantified include alkanes, aromatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, ketones, halocarbons, aldehydes, esters, terpenoids, ethers and some nitrogenated and sulfur compounds, furans and carboxylic acids. Specific mercury flux measurements were performed in a hot spot by using carulite tubes, that were also analyzed by using Thermal Decomposition, Amalgamation, and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry. Results showed average values of volatile emission fluxes ranging from non-detected to 331 μg m −2 day −1 (dichlorodifluoromethane). In the case of immission, the concentration of VOCs measured in the air of populated area surrounding the landfill ranged values from non-detected to 42.0 μg m −3

  17. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  18. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  19. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test...... the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin...... Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high...

  20. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  1. Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

  2. The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapicka, Jiri

    2015-04-01

    In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas

  3. Determination of potassium in several plants and study of potassium transfer to different beverages, including tequila, by measurement of 40K

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarrete, J.M.; Muller, G.; Cabrera, L.; Martinez, T.

    2006-01-01

    Measurement of 40 K was used for determination of potassium concentrations in leaves of agave and maguey cactus leaves, and coffee beans of various origins. The procedure was also used to study potassium transfer to tequila (alcoholic drink made of agave cactus), and the cactus and coffee infusions using 40 K as a natural radioactive tracer. Counting of 40 K in Marinelli containers with the aid of a low background NaI(Tl) scintillation detection system for 12-24 hours was employed. The method appeared to be simple and suitable for determination of potassium concentrations in large samples, which eliminates homogeneity problems. (author)

  4. Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Jesús; Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Ángela; Martín, Vicente; Delgado‐Rodríguez, Miguel; Martínez‐Baz, Iván; Baricot, Maretva; Soldevila, Nuria; Mayoral, José M.; Astray, Jenaro; Quintana, José M.; Cantón, Rafael; Castro, Ady; González‐Candelas, Fernando; Alonso, Jordi; Saez, Marc; Tamames, Sonia; Pumarola, Tomás

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Castilla et al. (2013) Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(2) 177–183. Background  The role of different risk exposures and preventive measures against influenza has not been well established. Objective  The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and measures to prevent influenza infection in the community. Methods  We conducted a multicenter case–control study. Cases were 481 outpatients aged 18 years or older with laboratory‐confirmed influenza A(H1N1)09 in the 2009–2010 season in Spain. A control was selected for each case from outpatients from the same area matched by age and date of consultation. Information on risk situations, preventive measures and other variables was obtained by interview and review of the medical record. Results  In the multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, the risk of a diagnosis of influenza increased with the number of cohabitants (compared with <3 cohabitants, three cohabitants had an OR = 1·80, 95% CI 1·12–2·89, and ≥5 cohabitants had an OR = 2·66, 95% CI 1·31–5·41) and for health care workers (OR = 2·94, 95% CI 1·53–5·66). The use of metropolitan public transport was associated with a lower frequency of a diagnosis of influenza (OR = 0·45, 95% CI 0·30–0·68) but not the use of taxis or long‐distance transport. The influenza A(H1N1)09 vaccine had a protective effect (OR = 0·13, 95% CI 0·04–0·48), unlike hand washing after touching contaminated surfaces or the use of alcohol‐based hand sanitizers. Conclusion  The home environment appears to play an important role in the spread of influenza in adults, but not the use of public transport. Health care workers have a higher risk of contracting influenza. Vaccination was the most effective preventive measure. PMID:22458533

  5. Injuries in skiing and snowboarding: Epidemiology and risk factors as a basis for prevention measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ropret Robert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the subject of injury in alpine skiing and snowboarding and the aim was to define the characteristics of injuries and the risk factors as the basis for establishing preventive measures. The types of injuries and risk factors were analyzed by examining previous papers. During the last thirty years, the number of injuries has generally decreased by 50-70%. The changes were recorded in the types of injuries, and the number of certain injuries increased. It was found that there was a mutual difference in the number and structure of the injuries of skiers and snowboarders. Injuries can be classified topologically and according to risk factors. The risk factors may be manifold: the characteristics of the equipment, the characteristics of the trail and snow surface, protective equipment, age, gender, physical fitness, risky behaviours, time of day, skiing discipline, climate factors, the presence of other skiers and others. By the analysis of these factors it was concluded that there were three entities in the implementation of security measures: the state that stipulates laws (relevant ministries, owners or organizers who provide services in skiing (ski centres, ski services, ski schools, clubs and skiers and snowboarders themselves.

  6. Importance measures and genetic algorithms for designing a risk-informed optimally balanced system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of importance measures for the risk-informed optimization of system design and management. An optimization approach is presented in which the information provided by the importance measures is incorporated in the formulation of a multi-objective optimization problem to drive the design towards a solution which, besides being optimal from the points of view of economics and safety, is also 'balanced' in the sense that all components have similar importance values. The approach allows identifying design systems without bottlenecks or unnecessarily high-performing components and with test/maintenance activities calibrated according to the components' importance ranking. The approach is tested at first against a multi-state system design optimization problem in which off-the-shelf components have to be properly allocated. Then, the more realistic problem of risk-informed optimization of the technical specifications of a safety system of a nuclear power plant is addressed

  7. Automated analysis of off-line measured gamma-spectra using UniSampo gamma-ray spectrum analysis software including criterias for alarming systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikkinen, M.T.

    2005-01-01

    In many laboratories the number of measured routine gamma-spectra can be significant and the labour work to review all the data is time consuming and expensive task. In many cases the routine sample does not normally contain radiation above a detectable level, and still the review of the spectra has to be performed. By introducing simple rules for emerging conditions, the review work can be significantly reduced. In one case the need to review the environmental measurement spectra was reduced to less than 1% compared to the original need, which in turn made the review personnel available for more useful functions. Using the UniSampo analysis system, the analysis results of spectra that are causing alarming conditions can be transmitted via e-mail to any address. Some systems are even equipped with the capability to forward these results to hand-portable telephones or pagers. This is a very practical solution for automated environmental monitoring, when the sample spectra are collected automatically and transmitted to central computer for further analysis. Set up of an automatic analysis system, rules for the emerging conditions, technical solutions for an automated alarming system and a generic hypothesis test for the alarming system developed for UniSampo analysis software are described. (author)

  8. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  9. Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures

    OpenAIRE

    Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J.; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Felix, Janine F.

    2016-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. Methods We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6?years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identi...

  10. Analysis And Comments On The Consultative Document: International Framework For Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards And Monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Jacques Prefontaine; Jean Desrochers; Lise Godbout

    2010-01-01

    The market turmoil that began in mid-2007 re-emphasized the importance of liquidity to the functioning of financial markets and the banking sector. In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a consultative document entitled: “International Framework for Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards and Monitoring”. Interested parties were invited to provide written comments by April 16th 2010. Given our interest in prom...

  11. Novel Associations between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Variants and Risk-Predicting Mammographic Density Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Stone, Jennifer; Thompson, Deborah J.; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Scott, Christopher; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Lindstrom, Sara; Kraft, Peter; Hazra, Aditi; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Jensen, Matt; Cunningham, Julie; Olson, Janet E.

    2015-01-01

    Mammographic density measures adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) are heritable predictors of breast cancer risk but few mammographic density-associated genetic variants have been identified. Using data for 10,727 women from two international consortia, we estimated associations between 77 common breast cancer susceptibility variants and absolute dense area, percent dense area and absolute non-dense area adjusted for study, age and BMI using mixed linear modeling. We found strong suppo...

  12. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2013-01-01

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

  13. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

  14. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (1) Nuclear safety for accident scenario and measures for fault movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Chiba, Go; Okamoto, Koji; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Yamazaki, Haruo; Konagai, Kazuo; Kamiya, Masanobu; Nagasawa, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Japan, as a frequent earthquake country, has a responsibility to resolve efficient measures to enhance nuclear safety, to continue utilizing the nuclear power, based on the risks and importance levels in the scientific and rational manner. In his paper describes how to evaluate the risk of faults movement by engineering approach. An open fruitful discussion by experts in the various area of earthquake, geology, geotechnical, civil, and a seismic design as well as other stakeholders such as academia professors, nuclear reactor engineers, regulators, and licensees. The Atomic Energy Society established an Investigation Committee on Development of Activity and Risk Evaluation Method for Faults by Engineering Approach (IC-DAREFEA) on October 1st, a 2014. The Investigation Committee utilizes the most advanced scientific and rational judgement, and continuous discussions and efforts in the global field, in order to collect and organize these knowledge and reflect the global standards and nuclear regulations, such as risk evaluation method for the faults movements and prevention of severe accidents, based on the accumulated database in the world, including Chuetsuoki Earthquake, North Nagano Earthquake and Kumamoto Earthquake. (author)

  15. Sorption of Sr, Co and Zn on illite: Batch experiments and modelling including Co in-diffusion measurements on compacted samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, V.; Baeyens, B.; Glaus, M. A.; Kupcik, T.; Marques Fernandes, M.; Van Laer, L.; Bruggeman, C.; Maes, N.; Schäfer, T.

    2018-02-01

    Experimental investigations on the uptake of divalent cations (Sr, Co and Zn) onto illite (Illite du Puy, Le-Puy-en-Velay, France) were carried out by three different international research groups (Institute for Nuclear Waste Disposal, KIT (Germany), Group Waste & Disposal, SCK-CEN, (Belgium) and Laboratory for Waste Management, PSI (Switzerland)) in the framework of the European FP7 CatClay project. The dependence of solid-liquid distribution ratios (Rd values) on pH at trace metal conditions (sorption edges) and on the metal ion concentration (sorption isotherms) was determined in dilute suspensions of homo-ionic Na-illite (Na-IdP) under controlled N2 atmosphere. The experimental results were modelled using the 2 Site Protolysis Non Electrostatic Surface Complexation and Cation Exchange (2SPNE SC/CE) sorption model. The sorption of Sr depends strongly on ionic strength, while a rather weak pH dependence is observed in a pH range between 3 and 11. The data were modelled with cation exchange reactions, taking into account competition with H, K, Ca, Mg and Al, and surface complexation on weak amphotheric edge sites at higher pH values. The sorption of Co on Na-IdP, however, is strongly pH dependent. Cation exchange on the planar sites and surface complexation on strong and weak amphoteric edge sites were used to describe the Co sorption data. Rd values for Co derived from in-diffusion measurements on compacted Na-IdP samples (bulk-dry density of 1700 kg m-3) between pH 5.0 and 9.0 are in good agreement with the batch sorption data. The equivalence of both approaches to measure sorption was thus confirmed for the present test system. In addition, the results highlight the importance of both major and minor surface species for the diffusive transport behaviour of strongly sorbing metal cations. While surface complexes at the edge sites determine largely the Rd value, the diffusive flux may be governed by those species bound to the planar sites, even at low fractional

  16. "Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

    2013-02-01

    Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

  17. A Value Measure for Public-Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Kenneth C; Abbas, Ali E

    2018-05-01

    This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Measurement of the structure functions F 2 and xF 3 and comparison with QCD predictions including kinematical and dynamical higher twist effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varvell, K.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Parker, M. A.; Sansum, R. A.; Aderholz, M.; Armenise, N.; Baton, J. P.; Bullock, F. W.; Berggren, M.; Bertrand, D.; Brisson, V.; Burkot, W.; Calcchio, M.; Claytoh, E. F.; Coghen, T.; Erriquez, O.; Fitch, P. J.; Gerbier, G.; Guy, J.; Hulth, P. O.; Iaselli, G.; Jones, G. T.; Kasper, P.; Klein, H.; Kochowski, C.; Marage, P.; Mermikides, M.; Middleton, R. P.; Morrison, D. R. O.; Mobayyen, M. M.; Natali, S.; Neveu, M.; Nuzzo, S.; O'Neale, S. W.; Petiau, P.; Petrides, A.; Ruggieri, F.; Sacton, J.; Simopoulou, E.; Vallee, C.; Vayaki, A.; Venus, W. A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wells, J.; Wittek, W.

    1987-03-01

    The isoscalar nucleon structure functions F 2( x, Q 2) and xF 3( x, Q 2) are measured in the range 0< Q 2<64 GeV2, 1.7< W 2<250 GeV2, x<0.7 using ν andbar v interactions on neon in BEBC. The data are used to evaluate possible higher twist contributions and to determine their impact on the evaluation of the QCD parameter Λ. In contrast to previous analyses reaching to such low W 2 values, it is found that a lowΛ _{overline {MS} } value in the neighbourhood of 100 MeV describes the data adequately and that the contribution of dynamical higher twist effects is small and negative.

  19. How to provide risk information. Based on citizen's evaluation of messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Kosugi, Motoko; Nakamura, Yasushi; Takahashi, Shigeaki; Harayama, Satoko

    2009-01-01

    The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy in Japan, decided in 2005, requests implementation of risk communication to regain social trust on nuclear industry. Electric power companies, however, have few experiences of providing risk information as the first step of risk communication. This report analyzes which message is understandable, useful and trustworthy, by comparing two sets of different messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant, respectively, based on interview survey for 30 people live in Tokyo metropolitan area. Participants in our survey evaluate the message about radiation protection including risk information is more reliable than one without risk information, but the former is less understandable and more anxious than the latter. In the case of messages regarding seismic measures of nuclear power plant, people are not satisfied with the argument which anti-earthquake measures are implemented, but want to know adequate grounds on which to admit that those measures are thorough. Another message of seismic measures we drafted contains basic knowledge about scales of earthquake, and shows that nuclear industry will consider bigger earthquake than ones in the past records, learn from past experience and improve their measures. 70% of participants assess this message more understandable, useful and trustworthy than the other to explain only seismic measures implemented. (author)

  20. Measure Guideline: Summary of Interior Ducts in New Construction, Including an Efficient, Affordable Method to Install Fur-Down Interior Ducts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beal, D.; McIlvaine , J.; Fonorow, K.; Martin, E.

    2011-11-01

    This document illustrates guidelines for the efficient installation of interior duct systems in new housing, including the fur-up chase method, the fur-down chase method, and interior ducts positioned in sealed attics or sealed crawl spaces. This document illustrates guidelines for the efficient installation of interior duct systems in new housing. Interior ducts result from bringing the duct work inside a home's thermal and air barrier. Architects, designers, builders, and new home buyers should thoroughly investigate any opportunity for energy savings that is as easy to implement during construction, such as the opportunity to construct interior duct work. In addition to enhanced energy efficiency, interior ductwork results in other important advantages, such as improved indoor air quality, increased system durability and increased homeowner comfort. While the advantages of well-designed and constructed interior duct systems are recognized, the implementation of this approach has not gained a significant market acceptance. This guideline describes a variety of methods to create interior ducts including the fur-up chase method, the fur-down chase method, and interior ducts positioned in sealed attics or sealed crawl spaces. As communication of the intent of an interior duct system, and collaboration on its construction are paramount to success, this guideline details the critical design, planning, construction, inspection, and verification steps that must be taken. Involved in this process are individuals from the design team; sales/marketing team; and mechanical, insulation, plumbing, electrical, framing, drywall and solar contractors.

  1. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The organization must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is...-based capital ratio numerator. Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes... techniques adequately measure associated market risk. 10 An organization's internal model may use any...

  2. Malnutrition risk questionnaire combined with body composition measurement in malnutrition screening in inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csontos, Ágnes Anna; Molnár, Andrea; Piri, Zsolt; Pálfi, Erzsébet; Miheller, Pál

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of malnutrition screening is to predict the probability of a worse outcome due to nutritional factors. The Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) can be used for screening in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, it does not provide details about body composition. Our aim was to assess the body composition and combine this with the MUST method to screen risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia. A total of 173 IBD outpatients were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. The MUST scale indicated 21.4% of IBD patients to be at risk of malnutrition. A risk of sarcopenia was detected in 27.7%. However, one third of these patients were not considered to be at risk by their MUST score. Furthermore, Crohn's disease (CD) patients had a strongly unfavorable fat-free mass index (FFMI) value compared to ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and these differences were significant among men (FFMI: 18.62 ± 2.16 vs 19.85 ± 2.22, p = 0.02, in CD and UC males, respectively). As sarcopenia is a relevant prognostic factor, the MUST method should be expanded to include body composition analysis to detect more IBD patients at risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia in order to start their nutritional therapy immediately.

  3. The role of geriatric assessment tests and anthropometric measurements in identifying the risk of falls in elderly nursing home residents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yardimci, Bulent; Aran, Sinan N.; Ozkaya, Ismail; Aksoy, Sevki M.; Demir, Tarik; Tezcan, Gulsen; Kaptanoglu, Aysegul Y.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To determine the relation among the risk of falls, geriatric assessment, and anthropometric measurements, including the mini mental state examination, geriatric depression scale, handgrip test, and key pinch test. Methods: This prospective study included 89 residents hospitalized between May 2014 and September 2015 in the geriatric care unit of the Istanbul Balikli Rum Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey. Patients were followed-up for one year, and their falls were recorded. Medical records of the included patients were retrieved and analyzed. Results: A total of 89 patients, comprising 37 men and 52 women with an average age of 75.8 ± 8.2 years were included in the study. The residents’ annual falling averages were 1.0 ± 1.5. The most significant factors were identified to be predicted muscle mass, skeletal muscle index, whole body bioimpedance, dominant arm muscle strength, dominant arm bioimpedance, and free fat mass. Conclusions: The mini mental test, geriatric depression scale and lawton-brody scale combined with the handgrip, 6-meters walking, and bioimpedance tests are favorable for detecting the risk of falls and recurrent falls in vulnerable elderly nursing home residents. PMID:27652361

  4. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Risks of neurological and immune-related diseases, including narcolepsy, after vaccination with Pandemrix: a population- and registry-based cohort study with over 2 years of follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, I; Granath, F; Askling, J; Ludvigsson, J F; Olsson, T; Feltelius, N

    2014-02-01

    To investigate the association between vaccination with Pandemrix and risk of selected neurological and immune-related diseases including narcolepsy. Population-based prospective cohort study using data from regional vaccination registries and national health registries. Seven healthcare regions in Sweden comprising 61% of the Swedish population. Study population of 3,347,467 vaccinated and 2,497,572 nonvaccinated individuals (vaccination coverage ≈ 60%) followed between 2009 and 2011 for 6.9 million person-years after exposure and 6.0 million person-years without exposure. First recorded diagnosis of neurological and immune-related diseases. Relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] assessed using Cox regression, adjusted for covariates. For all selected neurological and immune-related outcomes under study, other than allergic vaccine reactions (for which we verified an expected increase in risk) and narcolepsy, HRs were close to 1.0 and always below 1.3. We observed a three-fold increased risk of a diagnosis of narcolepsy (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.78-4.79; that is, four additional cases per 100,000 person-years) in individuals ≤ 20 years of age at vaccination and a two-fold increase (HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.00-4.75) amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years of age. The excess risk declined successively with increasing age at vaccination; no increase in risk was seen after 40 years of age. For a large number of selected neurological and immune-related diseases, we could neither confirm any causal association with Pandemrix nor refute entirely a small excess risk. We confirmed an increased risk for a diagnosis of narcolepsy in individuals ≤ 20 years of age and observed a trend towards an increased risk also amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  6. Persistence of long term isokinetic strength deficits in subjects with lateral ankle sprain as measured with a protocol including maximal preloading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perron, Marc; Moffet, Hélène; Nadeau, Sylvie; Hébert, Luc J; Belzile, Sylvain

    2014-12-01

    The assessment of muscle function is a cornerstone in the management of subjects who have sustained a lateral ankle sprain. The ankle range of motion being relatively small, the use of preloading allows to measure maximal strength throughout the whole amplitude and therefore to better characterize ankle muscles weaknesses. This study aimed to assess muscle strength of the injured and uninjured ankles in subjects with a lateral ankle sprain, to document the timeline of strength recovery, and to determine the influence of sprain grade on strength loss. Maximal torque of the periarticular muscles of the ankle in a concentric mode using a protocol with maximal preloading was tested in 32 male soldiers at 8 weeks and 6 months post-injury. The evertor muscles of the injured ankles were weaker than the uninjured ones at 8 weeks and 6 months post-injury (Pankles at 8 weeks (P=0.0014, effect size=0.52-0.58) while at 6 months, only the subjects with a grade II sprain displayed such weaknesses (Pankle sprain in very active individuals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Effectiveness of interventions on physical activity in overweight or obese children: a systematic review and meta-analysis including studies with objectively measured outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nooijen, C F J; Galanti, M R; Engström, K; Möller, J; Forsell, Y

    2017-02-01

    There is no consensus on interventions to be recommended in order to promote physical activity among overweight or obese children. The objective of this review was to assess the effects on objectively measured physical activity, of interventions promoting physical activity among overweight or obese children or adolescents, compared to no intervention or to interventions without a physical activity component. Publications up to December 2015 were located through electronic searches for randomized controlled trials resulting in inclusion of 33 studies. Standardized mean differences from baseline to post-intervention and to long-term follow-up were determined for intervention and control groups and meta-analysed using random effects models. The meta-analysis showed that interventions had no effect on total physical activity of overweight and obese children, neither directly post-intervention (-0.02 [-0.15, 0.11]) nor at long-term follow-up (0.07 [-0.27, 0.40]). Separate analyses by typology of intervention (with or without physical fitness, behavioural or environmental components) showed similar results (no effect). In conclusion, there is no evidence that currently available interventions are able to increase physical activity among overweight or obese children. This questions the contribution of physical activity to the treatment of overweight and obesity in children in the studied interventions and calls for other treatment strategies. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  8. Investigation of optimized experimental parameters including laser wavelength for boron measurement in photovoltaic grade silicon using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwiche, S.; Benmansour, M.; Eliezer, N.; Morvan, D.

    2010-01-01

    The quantification of boron and other impurities in photovoltaic grade silicon was investigated using the LIBS technique with attention to the laser wavelength employed, temporal parameters, and the nature of the ambient gas. The laser wavelength was found to have a moderate effect on the performance of the process, while the type of purge gas and temporal parameters had a strong effect on the signal-to-background ratio (SBR) of the boron spectral emission, which was used to determine the boron concentration in silicon. The three parameters are not independent, meaning that for each different purge gas, different optimal temporal parameters are observed. Electron density was also calculated from Stark broadening of the 390.5 nm silicon emission line in order to better understand the different performances observed when using different gases and gating parameters. Calibration curves were made for boron measurement in silicon using certified standards with different purge gases while using the temporal parameters which had been optimized for that gas. By comparing the calibration curves, it was determined that argon is superior to helium or air for use as the analysis chamber purge gas with an UV laser.

  9. LHCb: Measurements of the relative branching fractions of the decay channel $B^{\\pm}\\to p \\bar{p} K^{\\pm}$ including charmonium contributions at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Cardinale, Roberta

    2011-01-01

    The study of the $B^{\\pm}\\to p \\bar{p} K^{\\pm}$ decay channel at LHCb is of great interest since it gives the possibility to study different aspects of the Standard Model and possibly Beyond Standard Model physics. A measurement of the direct CP asymmetry can be performed. Moreover intermediate states such as charmonium and "charmonium-like" resonances in the $p \\bar{p}$ final state can be observed and studied along with their characteristics. A multivariate selection has been implemented to select the interesting events using kinematic and topological variables and the particle identification information using the Ring Imaging Cherenkov detectors. The selection has a high signal efficiency and high background rejection capability. The ratios of the branching fractions of the $B^{\\pm}\\to p \\bar{p} K^{\\pm}$ decay channel, of the charmless component with $M_{p \\bar{p}} < 2.85 \\,{\\rm GeV/}c^{2}$ and of the charmonium contribution $\\eta_{c}$, ${\\mathcal B} (B^{\\pm}\\to \\eta_{c} K^{\\pm})\\times {\\mathcal B} (\\eta...

  10. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

    2011-11-15

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  11. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  12. Mathematical finance theory review and exercises from binomial model to risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Gianin, Emanuela Rosazza

    2013-01-01

    The book collects over 120 exercises on different subjects of Mathematical Finance, including Option Pricing, Risk Theory, and Interest Rate Models. Many of the exercises are solved, while others are only proposed. Every chapter contains an introductory section illustrating the main theoretical results necessary to solve the exercises. The book is intended as an exercise textbook to accompany graduate courses in mathematical finance offered at many universities as part of degree programs in Applied and Industrial Mathematics, Mathematical Engineering, and Quantitative Finance.

  13. Measuring and monitoring to understand and reduce the fall-of-ground risk

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vogt, D

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available the risk of rockfalls, including deformation; rate of change of deformation; energy released in fracturing; and differential change in temperature. An extensive array of stationary sensors in hard rock mines does not yet present a practical solution... towards early warning of rockfall hazard, although a limited number of stationary sensors has proven to be highly effective in providing warning of the onset of goafing in coal. The sensing combination most likely to provide warning to hard-rock miners...

  14. Developing of risk-hedging CO2-emission policy. Part II: risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risk associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO 2 emissions are reviewed here: (1) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (2) economic growth might be reduced; (3) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (4) early action might cost more than later action; (5) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (6) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (7) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risk associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO 2 emissions at the present (early 1990s) level. This is turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  15. A simple, generalizable method for measuring individual research productivity and its use in the long-term analysis of departmental performance, including between-country comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wootton, Richard

    2013-01-14

    A simple, generalizable method for measuring research output would be useful in attempts to build research capacity, and in other contexts. A simple indicator of individual research output was developed, based on grant income, publications and numbers of PhD students supervised. The feasibility and utility of the indicator was examined by using it to calculate research output from two similarly-sized research groups in different countries. The same indicator can be used to assess the balance in the research "portfolio" of an individual researcher. Research output scores of 41 staff in Research Department A had a wide range, from zero to 8; the distribution of these scores was highly skewed. Only about 20% of the researchers had well-balanced research outputs, with approximately equal contributions from grants, papers and supervision. Over a five-year period, Department A's total research output rose, while the number of research staff decreased slightly, in other words research productivity (output per head) rose. Total research output from Research Department B, of approximately the same size as A, was similar, but slightly higher than Department A. The proposed indicator is feasible. The output score is dimensionless and can be used for comparisons within and between countries. Modeling can be used to explore the effect on research output of changing the size and composition of a research department. A sensitivity analysis shows that small increases in individual productivity result in relatively greater increases in overall departmental research output. The indicator appears to be potentially useful for capacity building, once the initial step of research priority setting has been completed.

  16. Rheumatoid factor testing in Spanish primary care: A population-based cohort study including 4.8 million subjects and almost half a million measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsley, Klara; Miller, Anne; Luqmani, Raashid; Fina-Aviles, Francesc; Javaid, Muhammad Kassim; Edwards, Christopher J; Pinedo-Villanueva, Rafael; Medina, Manuel; Calero, Sebastian; Cooper, Cyrus; Arden, Nigel; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

    2018-02-26

    Rheumatoid factor (RF) testing is used in primary care in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); however a positive RF may occur without RA. Incorrect use of RF testing may lead to increased costs and delayed diagnoses. The aim was to assess the performance of RF as a test for RA and to estimate the costs associated with its use in a primary care setting. A retrospective cohort study using the Information System for the Development of Research in Primary Care database (contains primary care records and laboratory results of >80% of the Catalonian population, Spain). Participants were patients ≥18 years with ≥1 RF test performed between 01/01/2006 and 31/12/2011, without a pre-existing diagnosis of RA. Outcome measures were an incident diagnosis of RA within 1 year of testing, and the cost of testing per case of RA. 495,434/4,796,498 (10.3%) patients were tested at least once. 107,362 (21.7%) of those tested were sero-positive of which 2768 (2.6%) were diagnosed with RA within 1 year as were 1141/388,072 (0.3%) sero-negative participants. The sensitivity of RF was 70.8% (95% CI 69.4-72.2), specificity 78.7% (78.6-78.8), and positive and negative predictive values 2.6% (2.5-2.7) and 99.7% (99.6-99.7) respectively. Approximately €3,963,472 was spent, with a cost of €1432 per true positive case. Although 10% of patients were tested for RF, most did not have RA. Limiting testing to patients with a higher pre-test probability would significantly reduce the cost of testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  17. Relationship between Anthropometric Measures and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgos, Miria Suzana; Burgos, Leandro Tibiriçá; Camargo, Marcelo Dias; Franke, Silvia Isabel Rech; Prá, Daniel; Silva, Antônio Marcos Vargas da; Borges, Tássia Silvana; Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira; Reckziegel, Miriam Beatris; Reuter, Cézane Priscila

    2013-01-01

    Obesity has been identified as an important risk factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, other factors, combined or not with obesity, can influence cardiovascular risk and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification in pediatrics. To analyze the association between anthropometry measures and cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the determinants to changes in blood pressure (BP), and to propose a prediction equation to waist circumference (WC) in children and adolescents. We evaluated 1,950 children and adolescents, aged 7 to 18 years. Visceral fat was assessed by WC and waist hip relationship, BP and body mass index (BMI). In a randomly selected subsample of these volunteers (n = 578), total cholesterol, glucose and triglycerides levels were evaluated. WC was positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and BP (SBP r = 0.45 and DBP = 0.37; p < 0.001). Glycaemia and triglycerides showed a weak correlation with WC (r = 0.110; p = 0.008 e r = 0.201; p < 0.001, respectively). Total cholesterol did not correlate with any of the variables. Age, BMI and WC were significant predictors on the regression models for BP (p < 0.001). We propose a WC prediction equation for children and adolescents: boys: y = 17.243 + 0.316 (height in cm); girls: y = 25.197 + 0.256 (height in cm). WC is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and presents itself as a risk factor predictor of hypertension in children and adolescents. The WC prediction equation proposed by us should be tested in future studies

  18. Relationship between Anthropometric Measures and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgos, Miria Suzana [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Burgos, Leandro Tibiriçá; Camargo, Marcelo Dias [Grupo de Pesquisa em Cardiologia do Exercício HCPA/UFRGS, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Franke, Silvia Isabel Rech; Prá, Daniel [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Silva, Antônio Marcos Vargas da [Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - UFSM, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil); Borges, Tássia Silvana; Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Reckziegel, Miriam Beatris [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Reuter, Cézane Priscila, E-mail: cpreuter@hotmail.com [Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil); Programa de Pós-graduação - Mestrado em Promoção da Saúde - UNISC, Santa Cruz do Sul, RS (Brazil)

    2013-10-15

    Obesity has been identified as an important risk factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, other factors, combined or not with obesity, can influence cardiovascular risk and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification in pediatrics. To analyze the association between anthropometry measures and cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the determinants to changes in blood pressure (BP), and to propose a prediction equation to waist circumference (WC) in children and adolescents. We evaluated 1,950 children and adolescents, aged 7 to 18 years. Visceral fat was assessed by WC and waist hip relationship, BP and body mass index (BMI). In a randomly selected subsample of these volunteers (n = 578), total cholesterol, glucose and triglycerides levels were evaluated. WC was positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and BP (SBP r = 0.45 and DBP = 0.37; p < 0.001). Glycaemia and triglycerides showed a weak correlation with WC (r = 0.110; p = 0.008 e r = 0.201; p < 0.001, respectively). Total cholesterol did not correlate with any of the variables. Age, BMI and WC were significant predictors on the regression models for BP (p < 0.001). We propose a WC prediction equation for children and adolescents: boys: y = 17.243 + 0.316 (height in cm); girls: y = 25.197 + 0.256 (height in cm). WC is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and presents itself as a risk factor predictor of hypertension in children and adolescents. The WC prediction equation proposed by us should be tested in future studies.

  19. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  20. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2018-01-01

    With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  1. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo B Brakenhoff

    Full Text Available With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data', measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate. For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  2. Risk assessment and HbA1c measurement in Norwegian community pharmacies to identify people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes – A feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjome, Reidun Lisbet Skeide; Sandberg, Sverre; Sølvik, Una Ørvim

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Determine the feasibility of using a diabetes risk assessment tool followed by HbA1c-measurement in a community-pharmacy setting in Norway. Methods In this longitudinal study two pharmacists in each of three community pharmacies were trained to perform risk assessments, HbA1c-measurements and counselling. Pharmacy customers who were > 18 years old and could understand and speak Norwegian or English were recruited in the pharmacies during a two-months-period. Information about the service was presented in local newspapers, social media, leaflets and posters at the pharmacy. Customers wishing to participate contacted the pharmacy staff. Participants completed a validated diabetes risk test and a background questionnaire including a validated instrument for self-rated health. A HbA1c measurement was performed for individuals with a moderate to high risk of developing diabetes. If HbA1c ≥ 6.5% they were recommended to visit their general practitioner for follow-up. The pharmacies performed internal and external quality control of the HbA1c instrument. Results Of the 211 included participants 97 (46%) were > 50 years old. HbA1c was measured for the 47 participants (22%) with high risk. Thirty-two (15%) had HbA1c values internal and external quality control for HbA1c were within set limits. Conclusion The pharmacists were able to perform the risk assessment and measurement of HbA1c, and pharmacy customers were willing to participate. The HbA1c measurements fulfilled the requirements for analytical quality. Thus, it is feasible to implement this service in community pharmacies in Norway. In a large-scale study the inclusion criteria should be increased to 45 years in accordance with the population the risk test has been validated for. PMID:29474501

  3. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  4. An overview of measuring and modelling dose and risk from ionising radiation for medical exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tootell, Andrew; Szczepura, Katy; Hogg, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper gives an overview of the methods that are used to calculate dose and risk from exposure to ionizing radiation as a support to other papers in this special issue. Background: The optimization of radiation dose is a legal requirement in medical exposures. This review paper aims to provide the reader with knowledge of dose by providing definitions and concepts of absorbed, effective and equivalent dose. Criticisms of the use of effective dose to infer the risk of an exposure to an individual will be discussed and an alternative approach considering the lifetime risks of cancer incidence will be considered. Prior to any dose or risk calculation, data concerning the dose absorbed by the patient needs to be collected. This paper will describe and discuss the main concepts and methods that can be utilised by a researcher in dose assessments. Concepts behind figures generated by imaging equipment such as dose-area-product, computed tomography dose index, dose length product and their use in effective dose calculations will be discussed. Processes, advantages and disadvantages in the simulation of exposures using the Monte Carlo method and direct measurement using digital dosimeters or thermoluminescent dosimeters will be considered. Beyond this special issue, it is proposed that this paper could serve as a teaching or CPD tool for personnel working or studying medical imaging

  5. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  6. Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

  7. 2-Phase NSGA II: An Optimized Reward and Risk Measurements Algorithm in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyedeh Elham Eftekharian

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization is a serious challenge for financial engineering and has pulled down special attention among investors. It has two objectives: to maximize the reward that is calculated by expected return and to minimize the risk. Variance has been considered as a risk measure. There are many constraints in the world that ultimately lead to a non–convex search space such as cardinality constraint. In conclusion, parametric quadratic programming could not be applied and it seems essential to apply multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA. In this paper, a new efficient multi-objective portfolio optimization algorithm called 2-phase NSGA II algorithm is developed and the results of this algorithm are compared with the NSGA II algorithm. It was found that 2-phase NSGA II significantly outperformed NSGA II algorithm.

  8. Task-based measures of image quality and their relation to radiation dose and patient risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, Harrison H; Kupinski, Matthew A; Myers, Kyle J; Hoeschen, Christoph; Little, Mark P

    2015-01-01

    The theory of task-based assessment of image quality is reviewed in the context of imaging with ionizing radiation, and objective figures of merit (FOMs) for image quality are summarized. The variation of the FOMs with the task, the observer and especially with the mean number of photons recorded in the image is discussed. Then various standard methods for specifying radiation dose are reviewed and related to the mean number of photons in the image and hence to image quality. Current knowledge of the relation between local radiation dose and the risk of various adverse effects is summarized, and some graphical depictions of the tradeoffs between image quality and risk are introduced. Then various dose-reduction strategies are discussed in terms of their effect on task-based measures of image quality. (topical review)

  9. Differences in Measuring Market Risk in Four Subsectors of the Digital Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to estimate market risk of the four subsectors of the digital economy. The riskiest subsector is Mobile/Internet Contents & Services followed by SW&IT Services and Application Software. On the contrary, the Telecom sector is by far the safest one. These results support the hypothesis that the Digital Economy is not a homogeneous sector.

  10. Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatectomy: Definitions, Risk Factors, Preventive Measures, and Management—Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman Oneil Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Resection of pancreas, in particular pancreaticoduodenectomy, is a complex procedure, commonly performed in appropriately selected patients with benign and malignant disease of the pancreas and periampullary region. Despite significant improvements in the safety and efficacy of pancreatic surgery, pancreaticoenteric anastomosis continues to be the “Achilles heel” of pancreaticoduodenectomy, due to its association with a measurable risk of leakage or failure of healing, leading to pancreatic fistula. The morbidity rate after pancreaticoduodenectomy remains high in the range of 30% to 65%, although the mortality has significantly dropped to below 5%. Most of these complications are related to pancreatic fistula, with serious complications of intra-abdominal abscess, postoperative bleeding, and multiorgan failure. Several pharmacological and technical interventions have been suggested to decrease the pancreatic fistula rate, but the results have been controversial. This paper considers definition and classification of pancreatic fistula, risk factors, and preventive approach and offers management strategy when they do occur.

  11. Patient Transfers and Risk of Back Injury: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study With Technical Measurements of Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinstrup, Jonas; Madeleine, Pascal; Jakobsen, Markus Due; Jay, Kenneth; Andersen, Lars Louis

    2017-11-08

    More than one third of nurses experience musculoskeletal pain several times during a normal work week. Consistent use of assistive devices during patient transfers is associated with a lower risk of occupational back injuries and low back pain (LBP). While uncertainties exist regarding which type of assistive devices most efficiently prevent LBP, exposure assessments using technological advancements allow for quantification of muscle load and body positions during common work tasks. The main objectives of this study are (1) to quantify low back and neck/shoulder muscle load in Danish nurses during patient transfers performed with different types of assistive devices, and (2) to combine the exposure profile for each type of assistive device with fortnightly questionnaires to identify the importance of muscle load (intensity and frequency of transfers) and body position (degree of back inclination and frequency) on LBP intensity and risk of back injury during a patient transfer. A combination of technical measurements (n=50) and a prospective study design (n=2000) will be applied on a cohort of female nurses in Danish hospitals. The technical measurements will be comprised of surface electromyography and accelerometers, with the aim of quantifying muscle load and body positions during various patient transfers, including different types of assistive devices throughout a workday. The study will thereby gather measurements during real-life working conditions. The prospective cohort study will consist of questionnaires at baseline and 1-year follow-up, as well as follow-up via email every other week for one year on questions regarding the frequency of patient transfers, use of assistive devices, intensity of LBP, and back injuries related to patient transfers. The objective measurements on muscle load and body positions during patient handlings will be applied to the fortnightly replies regarding frequency of patient transfer and use of different assistive devices, in

  12. Pediatric radiation dose and risk from bone density measurements using a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damilakis, J; Solomou, G; Manios, G E; Karantanas, A

    2013-07-01

    Effective radiation doses associated with bone mineral density examinations performed on children using a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scanner were found to be comparable to doses from pencil-beam DXA devices, i.e., lower than 1 μSv. Cancer risks associated with acquisitions obtained in this study are negligible. No data were found in the literature on radiation doses and potential risks following pediatric DXA performed on GE Lunar DXA scanners. This study aimed to estimate effective doses and associated cancer risks involved in pediatric examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner. Four physical anthropomorphic phantoms representing newborn, 1-, 5-, and 10-year-old patients were employed to simulate DXA exposures. All acquisitions were carried out using the Prodigy scanner. Dose measurements were performed for spine and dual femur using the phantoms simulating the 5- and 10-year-old child. Moreover, doses associated with whole-body examinations were measured for the four phantoms used in the current study. The gender-average effective dose for spine and hip examinations were 0.65 and 0.36 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 5-year-old child and 0.93 and 0.205 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 10-year-old child. Effective doses for whole-body examinations were 0.25, 0.22, 0.19, and 0.15 μSv for the neonate, 1-, 5-, and 10-year old child, respectively. The estimated lifetime cancer risks were negligible, i.e., 0.02-0.25 per million, depending on the sex, age, and type of DXA examination. A formula is presented for the estimation of effective dose from examinations performed on GE Lunar Prodigy scanners installed in other institutions. The effective doses and potential cancer risks associated with pediatric DXA examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam scanner were found to be comparable to doses and risks reported from pencil-beam DXA devices.

  13. Lung function and functional capacity among foundry workers using effective risk control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, Rosane Andrea Bretas; Chiavegato, Luciana Dias; de Moraes, Mônica Vasconcelos; Negreiros, Alexandher; Padula, Rosimeire Simprini

    2015-01-01

    Inhaled dust in the environment can trigger specific reactions in the airways and cause various respiratory diseases. Evaluate the lung function and functional capacity of foundry workers who are exposed to metals and use effective control measures. A cross-sectional study was realized with 108 workers at a bronze foundry and machining plant and in maintenance at a private university, both in Brazil. The workers were divided into two groups: the study group exposed to metals but using risk control measues and a control group not exposed to metal work. The Medical Research Council Questionnaire on Respiratory Symptoms and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire were administered, and lung function and functional capacity were evaluated. Comparative statistics were used to identify differences in the outcome measures between the two groups. The groups had similar personal and anthropometric characteristics and time on the job. Spirometry and peak expiratory flow presented no significant differences between the groups. And there was also no statistically significant difference between groups in functional capacity as assessed by performance on the six-minute walk test. Foundry industry workers in Brazil who were exposed to metal but used risk control measures had similar lung function and functional capacity whe