Step 7: Choose the "Best" Risk Management Alternative

Science.gov (United States)

The ultimate purpose of the SRM tactical phase is to choose how to manage risk. Prior to this stage, we determined the sources of risk, identified the relevant management actions and estimated the likelihood of all known outcomes. Next, we combine this information with your personal risk preference...

Managing neurogenic bowel dysfunction: what do patients prefer? A discrete choice experiment of patient preferences for transanal irrigation and standard bowel management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nafees B

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Beenish Nafees,1 Andrew J Lloyd,2 Rachel S Ballinger,2 Anton Emmanuel3 1Health Outcomes Research, Nafees Consulting Limited, London, 2Patient-Reported Outcomes Research, ICON plc, Oxford, 3Department of Gastroenterology and Nutrition, University College Hospital, London, UK Background: Most patients with bowel dysfunction secondary to neurological illness are managed by a range of nonsurgical methods, including dietary changes, laxatives, and suppository use to transanal irrigation (TAI. The aim of the present study was to explore individuals’ preferences regarding TAI devices and furthermore investigate willingness to pay (WTP for attributes in devices in the UK. Methods: A discrete choice experiment survey was conducted to evaluate the patients’ perceived value of TAI devices. Attributes were selected based upon a literature review and input from clinicians. Interviews were conducted with three clinicians and the survey was developed and finalized with the input from both patients and professionals. The final attributes were “risk of urinary tract infections” (UTIs, “risk of fecal incontinence” (FI, “frequency of use”, “time spent on toilet”, “ease of use”, “level of control/independence”, and “cost”. Participants were recruited by a patient panel of TAI device users in the UK. Data were analyzed using the conditional logit model whereby the coefficients obtained from the model provided an estimate of the (log odds ratios (ORs of preference for attributes. WTP was also estimated for each attribute. Results: A total of 129 participants were included in the final analyses. Sixty two percent of the participants had suffered from three UTIs in the preceding year and 58% of patients reported currently experiencing FI using their current device. All attributes were significant predictors of choice. The most important attributes for participants were the “risk of FI”, “frequency of use”, and “risk of UTIs�

Leadership styles in nursing management: preferred and perceived.

Science.gov (United States)

Sellgren, Stina; Ekvall, Göran; Tomson, Göran

2006-07-01

The aim was to explore nursing leadership regarding what nurse managers and subordinates see as important and to explore subordinates' opinions of their nurse manager's performance in reality. Background The manager's style can be fundamental for subordinates' acceptance of change and in motivating them to achieve stated visions and goals and high quality of care. Nurse managers (n=77) and 10 of each included nurse manager's subordinates received a questionnaire to assess 'preferred' leadership behaviour in three dimensions: change, production and employee/relation orientations. The same questionnaire was used to assess subordinates' opinions of their manager's leadership behaviour. There are statistically significant differences in opinions of preferred leadership between managers and subordinates, especially related to production and relation orientation. The subordinates' perception of real leadership behaviour has lower mean values than their preferred leadership behaviour in all three dimensions. Subordinates prefer managers with more clearly expressed leadership behaviour than managers themselves prefer and demonstrate.

Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

Risk preferences under acute stress

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Cahlíková, Jana; Cingl, L.

2017-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 1 (2017), s. 209-236 ISSN 1386-4157 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : risk preferences * risk aversion * stress Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.391, year: 2016

Risk preferences over small stakes: Evidence from deductible choice

OpenAIRE

Janko Gorter; Paul Schilp

2012-01-01

This paper provides new field evidence on risk preferences over small stakes. Using unique population and survey data on deductible choice in Dutch universal health insurance, we find that risk preferences are a dominant factor in decision aking. In fact, our results indicate that risk preferences are both statistically and quantitatively more significant in explaining deductible choice behavior than risk type. This finding contrasts with classical expected utility theory, as it implies risk ...

Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fenghua Wen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

Risk preferences under acute stress

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Cahlíková, Jana; Cingl, L.

2017-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 1 (2017), s. 209-236 ISSN 1386-4157 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) SVV 265801/2012 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : risk preferences * risk aversion * stress Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.391, year: 2016

Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2013-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

Social class & risk preferences and behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Kish-Gephart, Jennifer J

2017-12-01

This paper reviews recent work regarding the link between one's societal ranking (or social class), and risk preferences and behavior. While the topic of social class and its relationship to risk has been studied only tentatively in psychology, preliminary evidence suggests that experiences with rank, access to resources, and movement between classes have a meaningful impact on people's risk preferences and behaviors. Yet, a clear pattern of results remains elusive. Some studies suggest that lower social class standing is related to risk aversion, while others suggest it is related to risk taking. These mixed results highlight the need for future research that examines when and why lower social class standing is related to more or less risky decisions. By shedding light on this important phenomenon, the hope is to offer intervention opportunities that influence policies and mitigate inequality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher-order risk preferences in social settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrich, Timo; Mayrhofer, Thomas

2018-01-01

We study prudence and temperance (next to risk aversion) in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that these higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own payoff. Yet, many risky and financially relevant decisions are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematically vary how an individual's decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. We also observe that individuals are influenced significantly by the preferences of a partner when they are able to communicate and choices are payoff-relevant for both of them.

Management of low (favourable)-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, H Ballentine

2011-12-01

What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Most men who are diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer undergo some form of active intervention, despite evidence that treatment will not improve health outcomes for many. The decision to undergo treatment after diagnosis is, in part, related to the inability to precisely determine the long-term risk of harm without treatment. Nevertheless, physicians should consider patient age, overall health, and preferences for living with cancer and the potential side effects of curative treatments, before recommending a management option. This is especially important for older men, given the high level of evidence that those with low-risk disease are unlikely to accrue any benefit from curative intervention. What is known on the subject: Over treatment of favourable-risk prostate cancer is common, especially among older men. What does the study add: A review of the natural history of favourable-risk prostate cancer in the context of choices for management of the disease. • The management of favourable-risk prostate cancer is controversial, and in the absence of controlled trials to inform best practice, choices are driven by personal beliefs with resultant wide variation in practice patterns. • Men with favourable-risk prostate cancer diagnosed today often undergo treatments that will not improve overall health outcomes. • A shared-decision approach for selecting optimal management of favourable-risk disease should account for patient age, overall health, and preferences for living with cancer and the potential side effects of curative treatments. © 2011 THE AUTHOR. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

OpenAIRE

Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

1992-01-01

Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

Risk ON/Risk OFF: Risk-Taking Varies with Subjectively Preferred and Disliked Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Halko, Marja-Liisa; Kaustia, Markku

2015-01-01

In this paper we conduct a within-subjects experiment in which teenagers go over 256 gambles with real money gains and losses. For each risky gamble they choose whether to participate in it, or pass. Prior to this main experiment subjects identify specific songs belonging to their favorite musical genre, as well as songs representing a style they dislike. In the main experiment we vary the music playing in the background, so that each subject hears some of their favorite music, and some disliked music, alternating in blocks of 16 gambles. We find that favorite music increases risk-taking ('risk on'), and disliked music suppresses risk-taking ('risk off'), compared to a baseline of no music. Literature in psychology proposes several mechanisms by which mood affects risk-taking, but none of them fully explain the results in our setting. The results are, however, consistent with the economics notion of preference complementarity, extended to the domain of risk preference. The preference structure implied by our results is more complex than previously thought, yet realistic, and consistent with recent theoretical models. More generally, this mechanism offers a potential explanation to why risk-taking is known to change over time and across contexts.

European organic dairy farmers' preference for animal health management within the farm management system.

Science.gov (United States)

van Soest, F J S; Mourits, M C M; Hogeveen, H

2015-11-01

The expertise and knowledge of veterinary advisors on improving animal health management is key towards a better herd health status. However, veterinary advisors are not always aware of the goals and priorities of dairy farmers. To dairy farmers animal health is only one aspect of farm management and resources may be allocated to other more preferred areas. Veterinary advisors may experience this as non-compliant with their advice. To explore the preferences of European Union (EU) organic dairy farmers for improved animal health management relative to other farm management areas an adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) was performed. A total of 215 farmers participated originating from organic dairy farms in France (n = 70), Germany (n = 60), Spain (n = 28) and Sweden (n = 57). The management areas udder health and claw health represented animal health management whereas barn, calf and pasture management represented potential conflicting management areas. Results indicate that EU organic dairy farmers differ in their preferences for improved animal health management within the farming system. In general, improved calf management was the most preferred area and improved claw health management was found to be least preferred, the remaining areas were of intermediate interest. Cluster analyses on claw health measures and udder health measures resulted in respectively seven and nine distinct preference profiles. The results indicate a high degree of variation in farmers' preference, which cannot be explained by the typical herd characteristics. With the individual preferences revealed by ACA, a veterinary advisor can now find out whether his intended advice is directed at a favourable or unfavourable management area of the farmer. If the latter is the case the veterinarian should first create awareness of the problem to the farmer. Insights in individual farmers preferences will allow veterinary advisors to better understand why farmers were incompliant with their advice

Perceived risks, emotions, and policy preferences : A longitudinal survey among the local population on gas quakes in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perlaviciute, Goda; Steg, Linda; Hoekstra, Elisabeth J.; Vrieling, Leonie

Energy production can pose risks, such as nuclear accidents, oil spills, and earthquakes caused by gas production. Besides experts’ evaluations of risks, appropriate risk assessment and management require knowledge about how people experience these risks and which mitigation measures they prefer.

Veterans' Preferences for Remote Management of Chronic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlander, Erica; Barboza, Katherine C; Jensen, Ashley; Skursky, Nicole; Bennett, Katelyn; Sherman, Scott; Schwartz, Mark

2018-03-01

The Veterans Health Administration (VA) is investing considerable resources into providing remote management care to patients for disease prevention and management. Remote management includes online patient portals, e-mails between patients and providers, follow-up phone calls, and home health devices to monitor health status. However, little is known about patients' attitudes and preferences for this type of care. This qualitative study was conducted to better understand patient preferences for receiving remote care. Ten focus groups were held comprising 77 patients with hypertension or tobacco use history at two VA medical centers. Discussion questions focused on experience with current VA remote management efforts and preferences for receiving additional care between outpatient visits. Most participants were receptive to remote management for referrals, appointment reminders, resource information, and motivational and emotional support between visits, but described challenges with some technological tools. Participants reported that remote management should be personalized and tailored to individual needs. They expressed preferences for frequency, scope, continuity of provider, and mode of communication between visits. Most participants were open to nonclinicians contacting them as long as they had direct connection to their medical team. Some participants expressed a preference for a licensed medical professional. All groups raised concerns around confidentiality and privacy of healthcare information. Female Veterans expressed a desire for gender-sensitive care and an interest in complementary and alternative medicine. The findings and specific recommendations from this study can improve existing remote management programs and inform the design of future efforts.

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

2017-06-30

This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

Decision making under uncertainty, therapeutic inertia, and physicians' risk preferences in the management of multiple sclerosis (DIScUTIR MS).

Science.gov (United States)

Saposnik, Gustavo; Sempere, Angel Perez; Raptis, Roula; Prefasi, Daniel; Selchen, Daniel; Maurino, Jorge

2016-05-04

The management of multiple sclerosis (MS) is rapidly changing by the introduction of new and more effective disease-modifying agents. The importance of risk stratification was confirmed by results on disease progression predicted by different risk score systems. Despite these advances, we know very little about medical decisions under uncertainty in the management of MS. The goal of this study is to i) identify whether overconfidence, tolerance to risk/uncertainty, herding influence medical decisions, and ii) to evaluate the frequency of therapeutic inertia (defined as lack of treatment initiation or intensification in patients not at goals of care) and its predisposing factors in the management of MS. This is a prospective study comprising a combination of case-vignettes and surveys and experiments from Neuroeconomics/behavioral economics to identify cognitive distortions associated with medical decisions and therapeutic inertia. Participants include MS fellows and MS experts from across Spain. Each participant will receive an individual link using Qualtrics platform(©) that includes 20 case-vignettes, 3 surveys, and 4 behavioral experiments. The total time for completing the study is approximately 30-35 min. Case vignettes were selected to be representative of common clinical encounters in MS practice. Surveys and experiments include standardized test to measure overconfidence, aversion to risk and ambiguity, herding (following colleague's suggestions even when not supported by the evidence), physicians' reactions to uncertainty, and questions from the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) related to risk preferences in different domains. By applying three different MS score criteria (modified Rio, EMA, Prosperini's scheme) we take into account physicians' differences in escalating therapy when evaluating medical decisions across case-vignettes. The present study applies an innovative approach by combining tools to assess medical decisions with experiments from

Financial risk management in a competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjorgan, R.; Liu, C.C.; Lawarree, J.

1999-01-01

This paper proposes solutions for electricity producers in the field of financial risk management for electric energy contract evaluation. The efficient frontier is used as a tool to identify the preferred portfolio of contracts. Each portfolio has a probability density function for the profit. For important scheduling policies, closed form solutions are found for the amount of futures contracts that correspond to the efficient frontier. Production scheduling must consider resource constraints. It is found that, without resource constrains, the portfolio with the highest expected profit can be preferred--even for a risk-averse decision-maker. When resource constraints are present, portfolios not corresponding to the maximum expected profit criteria will more frequently be preferred

Words do matter: a systematic review on how different terminology for the same condition influences management preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Nickel, Brooke; Barratt, Alexandra; Copp, Tessa; Moynihan, Ray; McCaffery, Kirsten

2017-07-10

Changing terminology for low-risk, screen-detected conditions has now been recommended by several expert groups in order to prevent overdiagnosis and reduce the associated harms of overtreatment. However, the effect of terminology on patients' preferences for management is not well understood. This review aims to synthesise existing studies on terminology and its impact on management decision making. Systematic review. Studies were included that compared two or more terminologies to describe the same condition and measured the effect on treatment or management preferences and/or choices. Studies were identified via database searches from inception to April 2017, and from reference lists. Two authors evaluated the eligibility of studies with verification from the study team, extracted and crosschecked data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Of the 1399 titles identified, seven studies, all of which included hypothetical scenarios, met the inclusion criteria. Six studies were quantitative and one was qualitative. Six of the studies were of high quality. Studies covered a diverse range of conditions: ductal carcinoma in situ (3), gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (1), conjunctivitis (1), polycystic ovary syndrome (1) and a bony fracture (1). The terminologies compared in each study varied based on the condition assessed. Based on a narrative synthesis of the data, when a more medicalised or precise term was used to describe the condition, it generally resulted in a shift in preference towards more invasive managements, and/or higher ratings of anxiety and perceived severity of the condition. Different terminology given for the same condition influenced management preferences and psychological outcomes in a consistent pattern in these studies. Changing the terminology may be one strategy to reduce patient preferences for aggressive management responses to low-risk conditions. PROSPERO: CRD42016035643. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless

Preventive maintenance - An important element in the `risk management` philosophy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gullev, Lars [VEKS (Denmark)

1996-11-01

The contents of the paper is a presentation of the company VEKS with particular focus on the connection between preventive maintenance and the `Risk Management` philosophy. Implementation of Risk Management was preferred instead of an ISO-9000 certification of the company. The experience is that the responsibility in the organisation has been increased. (au)

Hemodialysis patients' preferences for the management of secondary hyperparathyroidism.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauber, Brett; Caloyeras, John; Posner, Joshua; Brommage, Deborah; Belozeroff, Vasily; Cooper, Kerry

2017-07-28

Patient engagement and patient-centered care are critical in optimally managing patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Understanding patient preferences is a key element of patient-centered care and shared decision making. The objective of this study was to elicit patients' preferences for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) associated with ESRD using a discrete-choice experiment survey. Clinical literature, nephrologist input, patient-education resources, and a patient focus group informed development of the survey instrument, which was qualitatively pretested before its administration to a broader sample of patients. The National Kidney Foundation invited individuals in the United States with ESRD who were undergoing hemodialysis to participate in the survey. Respondents chose among three hypothetical SHPT treatment alternatives (two medical alternatives and surgery) in each of a series of questions, which were defined by attributes of efficacy (effect on laboratory values and symptoms), safety, tolerability, mode of administration, and cost. The survey instrument included a best-worst scaling exercise to quantify the relative bother of the individual attributes of surgery. Random-parameters logit models were used to evaluate the conditional relative importance of the attributes. A total of 200 patients with ESRD completed the survey. The treatment attributes that were most important to the respondents were whether a treatment was a medication or surgery and out-of-pocket cost. Patients had statistically significant preferences for efficacy attributes related to symptom management and laboratory values, but placed less importance on the attributes related to mode of administration and side effects. The most bothersome attribute of surgery was the risk of surgical mortality. Patients with ESRD and SHPT who are undergoing hemodialysis understand SHPT and have clear and measurable treatment preferences. These results may help inform

The Role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1999-01-01

The list of individual and social factors that shape risk perception demonstrates that the intuitive understanding of risk is a multidimensional concept and cannot be reduced to the product of probabilities and consequences. Although risk perceptions differ considerably among social and cultural groups, the multi-dimensionality of risk and the integration of beliefs related to risk, the cause of risk, and its circumstances into a consistent belief system appear to be common characteristics of public risk perception in almost all countries in which such studies have been performed. Furthermore, the experience of risk is not limited to the threat of facing harm in the future. It includes subjective predictions of possible outcomes, the social and cultural context in which the risk is experienced, the mental images the risk situation evokes, the perception of the players who are involved in the risk situation and the judgments about fairness and equity related to the distribution of potential hazardous events. In this sense, risk is a social construct rather than a physical entity. Risk communication and conflict resolution is therefore a crucial element of any risk management strategy. The goal of risk communication and conflict resolution should not be to persuade people to accept whatever the communicator thinks is best for them. The ideal communication program envisions a receiver who processes all the available information to form a well-balanced judgement in accordance with the factual evidence, the arguments of all sides, and his/her own interests and preferences. The ultimate goal of risk communication is to reconcile expertise, interests, and public preferences. (EHS)

75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions... U.S.C. 3506(c)(2)(A)). Currently, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office is seeking comments... or by mail (if hard copy, preferably an original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program...

Identifying patient preferences for communicating risk estimates: A descriptive pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O'Connor Annette M

2001-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients increasingly seek more active involvement in health care decisions, but little is known about how to communicate complex risk information to patients. The objective of this study was to elicit patient preferences for the presentation and framing of complex risk information. Method To accomplish this, eight focus group discussions and 15 one-on-one interviews were conducted, where women were presented with risk data in a variety of different graphical formats, metrics, and time horizons. Risk data were based on a hypothetical woman's risk for coronary heart disease, hip fracture, and breast cancer, with and without hormone replacement therapy. Participants' preferences were assessed using likert scales, ranking, and abstractions of focus group discussions. Results Forty peri- and postmenopausal women were recruited through hospital fliers (n = 25 and a community health fair (n = 15. Mean age was 51 years, 50% were non-Caucasian, and all had completed high school. Bar graphs were preferred by 83% of participants over line graphs, thermometer graphs, 100 representative faces, and survival curves. Lifetime risk estimates were preferred over 10 or 20-year horizons, and absolute risks were preferred over relative risks and number needed to treat. Conclusion Although there are many different formats for presenting and framing risk information, simple bar charts depicting absolute lifetime risk were rated and ranked highest overall for patient preferences for format.

Risk and culture: variations in dioxin risk perceptions, behavioral preferences among social groups in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seohyun Park

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study examined variations in the perceptions of dioxin risk among social groups defined by geographical living location, environmental education, and occupation. Dioxin risk perceptions were analyzed according to values, risk awareness, knowledge, and behavioral preferences. Methods A quasi-experimental survey was designed and conducted on individuals from seven experimental groups in Jeonju city, South Korea, including: people living near incineration facilities; people living far from incineration facilities; governmental experts; nongovernmental organization members; office workers in developmental institutes or banks; students who were enrolled in environmental-related classes; and students who were enrolled in business-related classes. Results The results show variations among groups in values, awareness and behavioral preferences. Particular attention should be given to the result that groups with higher connectedness- to-nature values show higher willingness-to-act (WTA for risk reduction. Result s can be summarized as follows. First, awareness is associated with one’s geographical setting. Second, values and WTA behaviors are related to one’s environmental-related education and occupation. Third, values are significantly related to WTA behaviors. Conclusions Different cultures, in terms of values or worldview, among groups influence their perceptions of dioxin risk and choices of risk reduction behaviors. It is important to consider values in communicating complicated long-term risk management involving public participation. Further research should be continuously conducted on the effects of multiple dimensions of values on one’s WTA for risk reduction behaviors.

Audit of psychosocial risk management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Anne Helbo; Hasle, Peter; Hohnen, Pernille

2014-01-01

organizations on how to manage risks. Internal and external audits of compliance with the standard are key elements. Auditors should be competent to carry out the task and be familiar with risks of the areas they are auditing. The competences and practice of internal auditors have been studied...... in two Danish municipalities. The results show that auditors have a varied background and a limited knowledge about psychosocial risks. They have difficulties in carrying out audits and the results are mainly influenced by personal preferences....

Premium Auctions and Risk Preferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hu, A.; Offerman, T.J.S.; Zou, L.

2010-01-01

In a premium auction, the seller offers some "pay back", called premium, to the highest bidders. This paper investigates how the performance of such premium tactic is related to the participant's risk preferences. By developing an English premium auction model with symmetric interdependent values,

Does exposure to lahars risk affect people's risk-preferences and other attitudes? Field data from incentivized experiments and surveys in Arequipa - Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Heitz, C.; Bchir, M. A.; Willinger, M.

2012-04-01

Many individuals are exposed to risks which are either difficult to insure or hard to mitigate, such as tsunamis, floods, volcanic eruption,... Little is known about how exposure to such risks shapes individuals' risk-preferences. Are they more (less) risk-averse than people who are unexposed to such hazard risk? We provide empirical evidence about this question for the case of individuals exposed to lahars risk. Lahars are sediments laden flows from volcanic origin. We compare the risk-attitude of people exposed - versus non-exposed ones - to lahars risk. The originality of our approach is that we combine standard survey data to behavioural data collected by means of incentivized experiments. We collected data in various locations of the city of Arequipa (Peru), a densely populated area down the volcano El Misti. Participants in our experiment were identified as (non-)exposed to lahars risk based on risk zoning. Our survey questionnaire allows us to compare assessed exposure and the perceived exposure. We elicit risk-preference, time-preference, and trusting behaviour (a measure of social capital) for each respondent in addition to standard survey data. Our field experiment involved a total of 209 respondents from exposed and non-exposed areas. While respondents endow legitimacy in risk reduction (more than 74%) to a national authority (Defensa Civil) in charge of the management of risk in the city, more than 64% of them consider that they are not sufficiently informed about the behaviours to adopt in case of a disaster. Respondents are therefore poorly motivated to adopt initiatives of self-protection (23%) and express instead high expectations with respect to authorities' actions for decreasing their vulnerability (73%). The experimental data show that participants who live in exposed areas are not significantly more risk-averse than those living in non-exposed ones. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in time-preference between exposed and non

Risk preferences and prenatal exposure to sex hormones for ladinos.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Aycinena

Full Text Available Risk preferences drive much of human decision making including investment, career and health choices and many more. Thus, understanding the determinants of risk preferences refines our understanding of choice in a broad array of environments. We assess the relationship between risk preferences, prenatal exposure to sex hormones and gender for a sample of Ladinos, which is an ethnic group comprising 62.86% of the population of Guatemala. Prenatal exposure to sex hormones has organizational effects on brain development, and has been shown to partially explain risk preferences for Caucasians. We measure prenatal exposure to sex hormones using the ratio of the length of the index finger to the length of the ring finger (2D:4D, which is negatively (positively correlated with prenatal exposure to testosterone (estrogen. We find that Ladino males are less risk averse than Ladino females, and that Ladino males have lower 2D:4D ratios than Ladino females on both hands. We find that the 2D:4D ratio does not explain risk preferences for Ladinos. This is true for both genders, and both hands. Our results highlight the importance of exploring the behavioral significance of 2D:4D in non-Caucasian racial groups.

How Can Every Organization Manage the Operational Risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferry Jie

2002-03-01

Full Text Available This article describe how every organization (generally and Australian Organizations (specifically can manage the operational risks.  Recently, the operational risks are the significant issues in every organization because every organization will suffer from poor operational performance due to risks, failure, and problems such as a number of losses which are likely to be made worse. Basically, the operational risk management process has five steps, identification, analysis, treatment, controlling, and communication/consulting. Generally, many organizations (in particularly in Australia and New Zealand have already used AS/NZS 4360-Risk Management System, AS/NZS 4801-Occupational Health and Safety Management System, ISO 14001: Effective Environmental Management System, ISO 9001: Quality Management System, AS/NZS 7799: Information Security Management, AS/NZS 3806: Compliance Management System for reducing/mitigating/managing the operational risks. Based on the SAI Certification Register, the number of Australian Organizations got the AS/NZS ISO 9000 series, AS/NZS 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000 Certifications are 3338, 30, 20 and 5 respectively. It can conclude that Australian Organizations prefer used AS/NZS ISO 9000 series rather than AS/NZS ISO 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000.

Patient Preferences for Managing Insomnia: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Janet M Y; Bartlett, Delwyn J; Armour, Carol L; Saini, Bandana; Laba, Tracey-Lea

2018-03-03

Despite the rapid development of effective treatments, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological, insomnia management remains suboptimal at the practice interface. Patient preferences play a critical role in influencing treatment outcomes. However, there is currently a mismatch between patient preferences and clinician recommendations, partly perpetuated by a limited understanding of the patients' decision-making process. The aim of our study was to empirically quantify patient preferences for treatment attributes common to both pharmacological and non-pharmacological insomnia treatments. An efficient dual-response discrete choice experiment was conducted to evaluate patient treatment preferences for managing insomnia. The sample included 205 patients with self-reported insomnia and an Insomnia Severity Index ≥ 14. Participants were presented with two unlabelled hypothetical scenarios with an opt-out option across 12 choice sets. Data were analyzed using a mixed multinomial logit model to investigate the influence of five attributes (i.e. time, onset of action, maintainability of improved sleep, length of treatment, and monthly cost) on treatment preferences. Treatments were preferentially viewed if they conferred long-term sleep benefits (p managing insomnia.

Weight Management Preferences in a Non-Treatment Seeking Sample

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria B. Barry

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Obesity is a serious public health issue in the United States, with the CDC reporting that most adult Americans are now either overweight or obese. Little is known about the comparative acceptability of available weight management approaches in non-treatment seeking samples. Method: This report presents preliminary survey data collected from an online sample on weight management preferences for 8 different weight management strategies including a proposed incentive-based program. Participants were 72 individuals (15 men, 55 women and 2 transgendered individuals who self-re-ported being overweight or obese, or who currently self-reported a normal weight but had attempted to lose weight in the past. Results: ANOVA and Pair-wise comparison indicated clear preferences for certain treatments over others in the full sample; most notably, the most popular option in our sample for managing weight was to diet and exercise without professional assistance. Several differences in preference between the three weight groups were also observed. Conclusions: Dieting and exercising without any professional assistance is the most highly endorsed weight management option among all groups. Overweight and obese individuals may find self-management strategies for weight loss less attractive than normal weight individuals, but still prefer it to other alternatives. This has implications for the development and dissemination of empirically based self-management strategies for weight.

Risk, time and social preferences : Evidence from large scale experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perez Padilla, Mitzi

2017-01-01

This dissertation contains four chapters studying individual preferences and economic decision-making. The first three chapters study preferences for risk taking and intertemporal choice. First, it asks the question whether economic preferences are related to psychological measures of personality

Referring Physicians' Tendency to Collaborate With Radiologists in Managing Contrast Media-Related Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

İmamoğlu, Hakan; Doğan, Serap; Erdoğan, Nuri

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the tendency of referring physicians to collaborate with radiologists in managing contrast media (CM)-related risk factors. The study was conducted at a single academic hospital. Among 150 referring physicians from various specialties, 51 referring physicians (34%) responded to the invitation letter asking for an interview with a radiologist. During the interview, a modified form of the Control Preferences Scale was administered, in which there were five preferences (each displayed on a separate card) that ranged from the fully active to fully passive involvement of referring physicians in managing CM-related risk factors. A descriptive analysis was performed through categorization of the results depending on the respondents' two most preferred roles. Thirty-six referring physicians (70.5%) preferred a collaborative role, and 15 (29.4%) preferred a noncollaborative role (i.e., remained on either the fully active or fully passive side). Among the referring physicians who preferred a collaborative role, the most common response (n = 15 [29.4%]) was collaborative-active. Referring physicians at the authors' institution have basic cognitive and motivational-affective tone toward collaboration in future teamwork aimed at the management of CM-related risk factors. A modified form of the Control Preferences Scale, as in this study, can be used to investigate the tendency of referring physicians to collaborate with radiologists. The results are discussed from ethical and legal perspectives. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preferences of Patients and Pharmacists with Regard to the Management of Drug-Drug Interactions : A Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heringa, Mette; Floor-Schreudering, Annemieke; Wouters, Hans; De Smet, Peter A G M; Bouvy, Marcel L

INTRODUCTION: The management of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) is a complex process in which risk-benefit assessments should be combined with the patient's perspective. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine patients' and pharmacists' preferences regarding DDI management. METHODS: We

Using financial futures in trading and risk management

OpenAIRE

Mas, Ignacio; Saa-Requejo, Jesus

1995-01-01

The authors explain the features of an array of futures contracts and their basic pricing relationships and describe a few applications to show how investors and risk managers can use these contracts. Futures - and derivatives generally - allow economic agents to fine-tune the structure of their assets and liabilities to suit their risk preferences and market expectations. Futures are not a financing or investment vehicle per se, but a tool for transferring price risks associated with fluctua...

Decision process in MCDM with large number of criteria and heterogeneous risk preferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

Full Text Available A new decision process is proposed to address the challenge that a large number criteria in the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM problem and the decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. First, from the perspective of objective data, the effective criteria are extracted based on the similarity relations between criterion values and the criteria are weighted, respectively. Second, the corresponding types of theoretic model of risk preferences expectations will be built, based on the possibility and similarity between criterion values to solve the problem for different interval numbers with the same expectation. Then, the risk preferences (Risk-seeking, risk-neutral and risk-aversion will be embedded in the decision process. Later, the optimal decision object is selected according to the risk preferences of decision makers based on the corresponding theoretic model. Finally, a new algorithm of information aggregation model is proposed based on fairness maximization of decision results for the group decision, considering the coexistence of decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. The scientific rationality verification of this new method is given through the analysis of real case. Keywords: Heterogeneous, Risk preferences, Fairness, Decision process, Group decision

Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

The role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1998-01-01

Are risks social constructions of different societal actors that can be checked at best against standards of consistency, cohesion and internal conventions of deduction, but cannot claim any validity outside of the actor's logical framework? Or are technical estimates of risk representations of real hazards that can and will affect people as predicted by the statistical values, regardless of the beliefs or convictions of those who conduct the assessments? Which of the two sides one takes determines the legitimate function of risk perception for management purposes. The paper argues that both extremes, the constructivist and the realist perspective, miss the point, as risks are always mental representations of threats that are capable of claiming real losses. Over the last two decades, risk analysts have dealt with both sides of risk in an additive fashion. In times in which risk management has been under serious pressure to demonstrate effectiveness and cost-efficiency, the parallel approach of pleasing the technical elite and the public alike has lost legitimacy. In order to integrate risk assessment and perception, the paper analyses the strengths and weaknesses of each approach to risk analysis and highlights the potential contributions that the technical sciences and the social sciences can offer to risk management. Technical assessments provide the best estimate for judging the average probability of an adverse effect linked to an object or activity. First, public perception should govern the selection of criteria on which acceptability or tolerability are to be judged. Second, public input is needed to determine the trade-offs between criteria. Third, public preferences are needed to design resilient strategies for coping with remaining uncertainties. A public participation model is introduced that promises an integration of analytic knowledge and deliberative process involving those who will be affected by the respective risk

Risk Management of NASA Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Sarper, Hueseyin

1997-01-01

Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

Alcoholic Beverage Preference and Risk of Becoming a Heavy Drinker

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, M.K.; Andersen, A.T.; Sørensen, T.I.A.

2002-01-01

Studies have suggested that wine drinkers are at lower risk of death than beer or spirits drinkers. The aim of this study is to examine whether the risk of becoming a heavy or excessive drinker differs among individuals who prefer different types of alcoholic beverages.......Studies have suggested that wine drinkers are at lower risk of death than beer or spirits drinkers. The aim of this study is to examine whether the risk of becoming a heavy or excessive drinker differs among individuals who prefer different types of alcoholic beverages....

Risk preference or financial literacy? Behavioural experiment on index insurance demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Awel, Y.; Azomahou, T.T.

2015-01-01

We use unique cross-sectional household data from Ethiopia to investigate the effect of risk preference, financial literacy and other socio-economic characteristics on demand for index insurance. We measure risk preference based on survey experiments using lottery choice game with real monetary

Primary-Care Weight-Management Strategies: Parental Priorities and Preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Turer, Christy Boling; Upperman, Carla; Merchant, Zahra; Montaño, Sergio; Flores, Glenn

2016-04-01

To examine parental perspectives/rankings of the most important weight-management clinical practices and to determine whether preferences/rankings differ when parents disagree that their child is overweight. We performed mixed-methods analysis of a 32-question survey of parents of 2- to 18-year-old overweight children assessing parental agreement that their child is overweight, the single most important thing providers can do to improve weight status, ranking American Academy of Pediatrics-recommended clinical practices, and preferred follow-up interval. Four independent reviewers analyzed open-response data to identify qualitative themes/subthemes. Multivariable analyses examined parental rankings, preferred follow-up interval, and differences by agreement with their child's overweight assessment. Thirty-six percent of 219 children were overweight, 42% obese, and 22% severely obese; 16% of parents disagreed with their child's overweight assessment. Qualitative analysis of the most important practice to help overweight children yielded 10 themes; unique to parents disagreeing with their children's overweight assessments was "change weight-status assessments." After adjustment, the 3 highest-ranked clinical practices included, "check for weight-related problems," "review growth chart," and "recommend general dietary changes" (all P parents disagreeing with their children's overweight assessments ranked "review growth chart" as less important and ranked "reducing screen time" and "general activity changes" as more important. The mean preferred weight-management follow-up interval (10-12 weeks) did not differ by agreement with children's overweight assessments. Parents prefer weight-management strategies that prioritize evaluating weight-related problems, growth-chart review, and regular follow-up. Parents who disagree that their child is overweight want changes in how overweight is assessed. Using parent-preferred weight-management strategies may prove useful in

Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

2015-01-01

A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

Beverage preference and risk of alcohol-use disorders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flensborg-Madsen, Trine; Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether preferred type of alcoholic beverage influences the later risk of alcohol-use disorders (AUD). METHOD: A prospective cohort study was used, comprising three updated measures of alcohol intake and covariates, and 26 years of follow-up data...... on 18,146 individuals from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. The study population was linked to three different registers to detect AUD registrations. RESULTS: For both genders, wine drinking was associated with lower risk of AUD irrespective of the weekly amount of alcohol consumed. Women...... women or men. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who include wine when they drink alcohol have lower risks of AUD, independent of the total amount of alcohol consumed. The most likely explanation of these results is that lifestyle factors and personal characteristics are associated with beverage preference....

The role of taste in alcohol preference, consumption and risk behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Thibodeau, Margaret; Pickering, Gary J

2017-10-05

Alcohol consumption is widespread, and high levels of use are associated with increased risk of developing an alcohol use disorder. Thus, understanding the factors that influence alcohol intake is important for disease prevention and management. Additionally, elucidating the factors that associate with alcohol preference and intake in non-clinical populations allows for product development and optimisation opportunities for the alcoholic beverage industry. The literature on how taste (orosensation) influences alcohol behavior is critically appraised in this review. Ethanol, the compound common to all alcoholic beverages, is generally aversive as it primarily elicits bitterness and irritation when ingested. Individuals who experience orosensations (both taste and chemesthetic) more intensely tend to report lower liking and consumption of alcoholic beverages. Additionally, a preference for sweetness is likely associated with a paternal history of alcohol use disorders. However, conflicting findings in the literature are common and may be partially attributable to differences in the methods used to access orosensory responsiveness and taste phenotypes. We conclude that while taste is a key driver in alcohol preference, intake and use disorder, no single taste-related factor can adequately predict alcohol behaviour. Areas for further research and suggestions for improved methodological and analytical approaches are highlighted.

Quantifying women's stated benefit-risk trade-off preferences for IBS treatment outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, F Reed; Hauber, A Brett; Ozdemir, Semra; Lynd, Larry

2010-01-01

The Food and Drug Administration, currently, is exploring quantitative benefit-risk methods to support regulatory decision-making. A scientifically valid method for assessing patients' benefit-risk trade-off preferences is needed to compare risks and benefits in a common metric. The study aims to quantify the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) of treatment-related adverse events (AEs) that women with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are willing to accept in exchange for symptom relief. A stated-choice survey was used to elicit trade-off preferences among constructed treatment profiles, each defined by symptom severity and treatment-related AEs. Symptom attributes included frequency of abdominal pain and discomfort, frequency of diarrhea, and frequency of urgency. AE attributes included frequency of mild-to-moderate constipation and the risk of four possible serious AEs. A Web-enabled survey was administered to 589 female US residents at least 18 years of age with a self-reported diagnosis of diarrhea-predominant IBS. Preference weights and MAR were estimated using mixed-logit methods. SUBJECTS were willing to accept higher risks of serious AEs in return for treatments offering better symptom control. For an improvement from the lowest to the highest of four benefit levels, subjects were willing to tolerate a 2.65% increase in impacted-bowel risk, but only a 1.34% increase in perforated-bowel risk. Variation in MARs across AE types is consistent with the relative seriousness of the AEs. Stated-preference methods offer a scientifically valid approach to quantifying benefit-risk trade-off preferences that can be used to inform regulatory decision-making.

Supply risk management from a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

OpenAIRE

Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

2012-01-01

Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity on supply risk management performance. We also identify two antecedents of the transaction cost constructs based on social exchange theory: dependency and preferred customer status. We used survey data to discover a positive in...

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Shan Hsu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

A new active portfolio risk management for an electricity retailer based on a drawdown risk preference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charwand, Mansour; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Siano, Pierluigi

2017-01-01

This paper addresses the deciding under uncertainty of an electricity retailer in order to maximise its total expected rate of return. The developed methodology is based on the modelling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices that seeks to manage a portfolio of different contracts. Retailer's load and the price at each zone are forecasted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a clustering technique is used for scenario reduction. Supply sources include the pool, self-production facilities, forward and bilateral contracts. The risk of cost fluctuation due to uncertainties is explicitly modelled using the multi-scenario drawdown methodology. This risk function quantifies in aggregated format the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns over planning horizon. In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem. Carried out experimental results on the basis of realistic data, show that imposing risk constraints improve the “real” performance of a portfolio management in out-of-sample runs. - Highlights: • A new drawdown-based method is introduced to retailer deciding under uncertainty. • This tool is used to assess the risk levels regarding retailer midterm strategies. • The methodology is based on the modeling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices. • The risk function quantifies the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns. • In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem.

State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dino J Levy

Full Text Available The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Dino J; Thavikulwat, Amalie C; Glimcher, Paul W

2013-01-01

The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

Risk preference, option pricing and portfolio hedging with proportional transaction costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Scaling is a key factor in option pricing. • The model is theoretically analyzed and the results are new. • Some numerical examples are performed. • The implied-volatility-frown is affected by the risk preference and scaling. - Abstract: This paper is concerned in the option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case with the proportional transaction costs. Through the Monte Carlo simulations it has been shown that the fractal scaling and risk preference of traders have an important influence on the hedging performances in both option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case. In addition, the relation between preference of traders and implied volatility frown is discussed. We conclude that the risk preferences of traders play an important role in determining the shape of the implied-volatility-frown and the different options having the different hedging frequencies is another reason for the implied volatility frown.

Laypeoples' preferred sources of health information on the emergency management of tooth avulsion.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Sane, Mona; Bourisly, Nibal; Almulla, Taghreed; Andersson, Lars

2011-12-01

When planning nationwide information campaigns on the emergency management of tooth avulsion, the populations' preference to different modes of information delivery should be taken into consideration. We currently lack information on that. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess laypeoples' preferred sources of information on the emergency management of tooth avulsion. This was a joint study undertaken by experts in media and experts in dental traumatology. Interview-assisted questionnaires were conducted on a sample of 579 adults from Kuwait. Subjects were asked to choose their three preferred sources of information on the emergency management of tooth avulsion. Subjects' responses and sociodemographic data were registered. The data were descriptively analyzed, and a chi-square test was used to assess the relation of the subjects' preferences to their registered demographics. The Internet, health care professionals, and TV were the three most preferred sources of information on the emergency management of tooth avulsion across all groups, regardless of the sociodemographic characteristics. Younger adults, singles and subjects with higher education significantly preferred the Internet. Older adults preferred TV. Family was a preferred source in geographic districts populated with extended families, while friends were a preferred source in geographic districts populated by expatriates. Younger people and those with higher education can be effectively targeted through the Internet, while it is more effective to target older people through TV. Information, on tooth avulsion management, given by health care professionals is preferred across all population segments. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Preference towards Control in Risk Taking: Control, No Control, or Randomize?

OpenAIRE

Li, King King

2010-01-01

This paper experimentally investigates preference towards different methods of control in risk taking. Participants are asked to choose between different ways for choosing which numbers to bet on for a gamble. They can choose the numbers themselves (control), let the experimenter choose (no control), or randomize. It is found that in addition to the more conventional preference for control, some participants prefer not to control, or randomization. These preferences are robust as participants...

Sustainability assessment in forest management based on individual preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-Fernández, Susana; Martinez-Falero, Eugenio

2018-01-15

This paper presents a methodology to elicit the preferences of any individual in the assessment of sustainable forest management at the stand level. The elicitation procedure was based on the comparison of the sustainability of pairs of forest locations. A sustainability map of the whole territory was obtained according to the individual's preferences. Three forest sustainability indicators were pre-calculated for each point in a study area in a Scots pine forest in the National Park of Sierra de Guadarrama in the Madrid Region in Spain to obtain the best management plan with the sustainability map. We followed a participatory process involving fifty people to assess the sustainability of the forest management and the methodology. The results highlighted the demand for conservative forest management, the usefulness of the methodology for managers, and the importance and necessity of incorporating stakeholders into forestry decision-making processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Associations between Film Preferences and Risk Factors for Suicide: An Online Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Till, Benedikt; Tran, Ulrich S.; Voracek, Martin; Sonneck, Gernot; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas

2014-01-01

Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide) with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content. PMID:25028966

Associations between film preferences and risk factors for suicide: an online survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benedikt Till

Full Text Available Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content.

Associations between film preferences and risk factors for suicide: an online survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Till, Benedikt; Tran, Ulrich S; Voracek, Martin; Sonneck, Gernot; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas

2014-01-01

Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide) with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content.

Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

1980-01-01

A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

Patient-stated preferences regarding volume-related risk mitigation strategies for hemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Flythe, Jennifer E; Mangione, Thomas W; Brunelli, Steven M; Curhan, Gary C

2014-08-07

Larger weight gain and higher ultrafiltration rates have been associated with poorer outcomes among patients on dialysis. Dietary restrictions reduce fluid-related risk; however, adherence is challenging. Alternative fluid mitigation strategies include treatment time extension, more frequent dialysis, adjunct peritoneal dialysis, and wearable ultrafiltration devices. No data regarding patient preferences for fluid management exist. A survey was designed, tested, and administered to assess patient-stated preferences regarding fluid mitigation. A written survey concerning fluid-related symptoms, patient and treatment characteristics, and fluid management preferences was developed. The cross-sectional survey was completed by 600 patients on hemodialysis at 18 geographically diverse ambulatory facilities. Comparisons of patient willingness to engage in volume mitigation strategies across fluid symptom burden, dietary restriction experience, and patient characteristics were performed. Final analyses included 588 surveys. Overall, if allowed to liberalize fluid intake, 44.6% of patients were willing to extend treatment time by 15 minutes. Willingness to extend treatment time was incrementally less for longer treatment extensions; 12.2% of patients were willing to add a fourth weekly treatment session, and 13.5% of patients were willing to participate in nocturnal dialysis three nights per week. Patients more bothered by their fluid restrictions (versus less bothered) were more willing to engage in fluid mitigation strategies. Demographic characteristics and symptoms, such as cramping and dyspnea, were not consistently associated with willingness to engage in the proposed strategies. More than 25% of patients were unsure of their dry weights and typical interdialytic weight gains. Patients were generally averse to treatment time extension>15 minutes. Patients more bothered (versus less bothered) by their prescribed fluid restrictions were more willing to engage in volume

The relationship between risk attitude and strength of preference: A test of intrinsic risk attitude

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Smidts (Ale)

1997-01-01

textabstractIn a field study, the concept of intrinsic, risk attitude is investigated. Intrinsic risk attitude concerns the relationship between risk attitude, measured by the utility function u(x), and strength of preference, measured by the value function v(x). We study farmers' decision-making

Risk management

OpenAIRE

Mcmanus, John

2009-01-01

Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

Strategic supply cost management: physician preference without deference.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, Rand

2005-04-01

Strategic supply chain management differs from traditional supply chain management in that it leaves nothing to chance: It takes into account physician preference in product selection and pricing. It does not allow vendors to bypass supply chain leaders. Its leaders require a broad understanding of strategic, financial, and clinical issues. Its leaders are accountable for maintaining control over supply costs across the board.

Risk and Time Preferences of Entrepreneurs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Di Girolamo, Amalia; Harrison, Glenn W.

2014-01-01

To understand how small business entrepreneurs respond to government policy one has to know their risk and time preferences. Are they risk averse, or have high discount rates, such that they are hard to motivate? We have conducted a set of field experiments in Denmark that will allow a direct...... characterization of small business entrepreneurs in terms of these traits. We build on experimental tasks that are well established in the literature. The results do not suggest that small business entrepreneurs are more or less risk averse than the general population under the assumption of Expected Utility...... Theory. However, we generally find an S-shaped probability weighting function for both small business entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs, with entrepreneurs being more optimistic about the chance of occurrence for the best outcome in lotteries with real monetary outcomes. The results also point...

Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

2018-01-01

Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...

Project Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jr., R. F. Miles

1995-01-01

Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

Food Culture, Preferences and Ethics in Dysphagia Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenny, Belinda

2015-11-01

Adults with dysphagia experience difficulties swallowing food and fluids with potentially harmful health and psychosocial consequences. Speech pathologists who manage patients with dysphagia are frequently required to address ethical issues when patients' food culture and/ or preferences are inconsistent with recommended diets. These issues incorporate complex links between food, identity and social participation. A composite case has been developed to reflect ethical issues identified by practising speech pathologists for the purposes of illustrating ethical concerns in dysphagia management. The case examines a speech pathologist's role in supporting patient autonomy when patients and carers express different goals and values. The case presents a 68-year-old man of Australian/Italian heritage with severe swallowing impairment and strong values attached to food preferences. The case is examined through application of the dysphagia algorithm, a tool for shared decision-making when patients refuse dietary modifications. Case analysis revealed the benefits and challenges of shared decision-making processes in dysphagia management. Four health professional skills and attributes were identified as synonymous with shared decision making: communication, imagination, courage and reflection. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Female field crickets incur increased parasitism risk when near preferred song.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cassandra M Martin

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Female animals often prefer males with conspicuous traits because these males provide direct or indirect benefits. Conspicuous male traits, however, can attract predators. This not only increases the risk of predation for conspicuous males but also for the females that prefer them. In the variable field cricket, Gryllus lineaticeps, males that produce preferred song types provide females with greater material benefits, but they are also more likely to attract lethal parasitoid flies. First, we conducted a field experiment that tested the hypothesis that females have a greater risk of fly parasitism when in association with preferred high chirp rate males. Females were nearly twice as likely to be parasitized when caged with high chirp rate song than when caged with low chirp rate song. Females may thus be forced to trade off the quality of the benefits they receive from mating with preferred males and the risk of being killed by a predator when near these males. Second, we assessed female parasitism rates in a natural population. Up to 6% of the females were parasitized in field samples. Because the females we collected could have become parasitized had they not been collected, this provides a minimum estimate of the female parasitism rate in the field. In a laboratory study, we found no difference in the proportion of time parasitized and unparasitized females spent hiding under shelters; thus, differences in activity patterns do not appear to have biased our estimate of female parasitism rates. Overall, our results suggest that female association costs have the potential to shape the evolution of female mating preferences.

Fear, Anger, and Risk Preference Reversals: An Experimental Study on a Chinese Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

She, Shengxiang; Eimontaite, Iveta; Zhang, Dangli; Sun, Yan

2017-01-01

Fear and anger are basic emotions of the same valence which differ in terms of their certainty and control dimensions according to the Appraisal Tendency Framework, a theory addressing the relationship between specific emotions, and judgments and choices. Past research based on the Appraisal Theory revealed contradictory results for risky choice decision-making. However, these conclusions were drawn from Western samples (e.g., North American). Considering potential cultural differences, the present study aims to investigate whether the Appraisal Tendency hypothesis yields the same results in a Chinese sample. Our first study explores how dispositional fear and anger influence risk preferences through a classic virtual "Asia Disease Problem" task and the second study investigates how induced fear and anger influence risk preferences through an incentive-compatible task. Consistent with previous research, our results reveal that induced fear and anger have differential effects on risky decisions: angry participants prefer the risk-seeking option, whereas fearful participants prefer a risk-averse option. However, we find no associations between dispositional fear (or anger) and risky decisions.

Fear, Anger, and Risk Preference Reversals: An Experimental Study on a Chinese Sample

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengxiang She

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Fear and anger are basic emotions of the same valence which differ in terms of their certainty and control dimensions according to the Appraisal Tendency Framework, a theory addressing the relationship between specific emotions, and judgments and choices. Past research based on the Appraisal Theory revealed contradictory results for risky choice decision-making. However, these conclusions were drawn from Western samples (e.g., North American. Considering potential cultural differences, the present study aims to investigate whether the Appraisal Tendency hypothesis yields the same results in a Chinese sample. Our first study explores how dispositional fear and anger influence risk preferences through a classic virtual “Asia Disease Problem” task and the second study investigates how induced fear and anger influence risk preferences through an incentive-compatible task. Consistent with previous research, our results reveal that induced fear and anger have differential effects on risky decisions: angry participants prefer the risk-seeking option, whereas fearful participants prefer a risk-averse option. However, we find no associations between dispositional fear (or anger and risky decisions.

Gender differences in risk preferences and stereotypes: Experimental evidence from a matrilineal and a patrilineal society

OpenAIRE

Pondorfer, Andreas; Omar Mahmoud, Toman; Rehdanz, Katrin; Schmidt, Ulrich

2014-01-01

We use a controlled experiment to analyze gender differences in risk preferences and stereotypes about risk preferences of men and women across two distinct island societies in the Pacific: the patrilineal Palawan in the Philippines and the matrilineal Teop in Papua New Guinea. We find no gender differences in actual risk preferences, but evidence for culture-specific stereotypes. Like men in Western societies, Palawan men overestimate women's actual risk aversion. By contrast, Teop men under...

Decisional role preferences, risk knowledge and information interests in patients with multiple sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heesen, Christoph; Kasper, Jürgen; Segal, Julia; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2004-12-01

Shared decision making is increasingly recognized as the ideal model of patient-physician communication especially in chronic diseases with partially effective treatments as multiple sclerosis (MS). To evaluate prerequisite factors for this kind of decision making we studied patients' decisional role preferences in medical decision making, knowledge on risks, information interests and the relations between these factors in MS. After conducting focus groups to generate hypotheses, 219 randomly selected patients from the MS Outpatient Clinic register (n = 1374) of the University Hospital Hamburg received mailed questionnaires on their knowledge of risks in MS, their perception of their own level of knowledge, information interests and role preferences. Most patients (79%) indicated that they preferred an active role in treatment decisions giving the shared decision and the informed choice model the highest priority. MS risk knowledge was low but questionnaire results depended on disease course, disease duration and ongoing immune therapy. Measured knowledge as well as perceived knowledge was only weakly correlated with preferences of active roles. Major information interests were related to symptom alleviation, diagnostic procedures and prognosis. Patients with MS claimed autonomous roles in their health care decisions. The weak correlation between knowledge and preferences for active roles implicates that other factors largely influence role preferences.

Enterprise risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2015-07-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

Salty Food Preference and Intake and Risk of Gastric Cancer: The JACC Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitsumasa Umesawa

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background: High sodium intake is a potential risk factor of gastric cancer. However, limited information is available on the relationship between salty food preference or intake and risk of gastric cancer. The aim of the present study was to determine the association between these variables among the Japanese population. Methods: Between 1988 and 1990, 15 732 men and 24 997 women aged 40–79 years old with no history of cancer or cardiovascular disease completed a lifestyle questionnaire that included information about food intake. The subjects were enrolled in the Japan Collaborative Cohort (JACC Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk Sponsored by Monbusho. After a median follow-up of 14.3 years, 787 incident gastric cancers were documented. We examined the associations between salty food preference and intake and gastric cancer incidence using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The risk of gastric cancer among subjects with a strong preference for salty food was approximately 30% higher than among those who preferred normal-level salty food (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.67. The risk of gastric cancer in subjects who consumed 3 and ≥4 bowls/day of miso soup was approximately 60% higher than in those who consumed less miso soup (HR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.16–2.39 and HR 1.64; 95% CI, 1.11–2.42, respectively. Sodium intake correlated positively and linearly with risk of gastric cancer (P for trend = 0.002. Conclusions: The present study showed that salty food preference, consumption of large quantities of miso soup, and high sodium intake were associated with increased risk of gastric cancer among Japanese people.

Risk communication formats for low probability events: an exploratory study of patient preferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iadarola Stephen

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clear communication about the possible outcomes of proposed medical interventions is an integral part of medical care. Despite its importance, there have been few studies comparing different formats for presenting probabilistic information to patients, especially when small probabilities are involved. The purpose of this study was to explore the potential usefulness of several new small-risk graphic communication formats. Methods Information about the likelihoods of cancer and cancer prevention associated with two hypothetical cancer screening programs were used to create an augmented bar chart, an augmented grouped icon display, a flow chart, and three paired combinations of these formats. In the study scenario, the baseline risk of cancer was 53 per 1,000 (5.3%. The risk associated with cancer screening option A was 38 per 1,000 (3.8% and the risk associated with screening option B was 29 per 1,000 (2.9%. Both the augmented bar chart and the augmented grouped icon display contained magnified views of the differences in cancer risk and cancer prevention associated with the screening programs. A convenience sample of 29 subjects (mean age 56.4 years; 76% men used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP to indicate their relative preferences for the six formats using 15 sequential paired comparisons. Results The most preferred format was the combined augmented bar chart + flow diagram (mean preference score 0.43 followed by the combined augmented icon + augmented bar chart format (mean preference score 0.22. The overall differences among the six formats were statistically significant: Kruskal-Wallis Chi Square = 141.4, p Conclusion These findings suggest that patients may prefer combined, rather than single, graphic risk presentation formats and that augmented bar charts and icon displays may be useful for conveying comparative information about small risks to clinical decision makers. Further research to confirm and extend these

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Decision making regarding prophylactic mastectomy: stability of preferences and the impact of anticipated feelings of regret.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, Sandra; van Roosmalen, Mariëlle S; Otten, Wilma; Stalmeier, Peep F M

2008-05-10

Women who test positive for a BRCA1/2 mutation face difficult choices to manage their breast cancer risk; one of these choices is whether to opt for prophylactic mastectomy. Few data are available about this decision-making process. The current study provides data regarding the stability of risk-management preferences over time and the factors that are associated with these preferences. We analyzed data from 338 women who opted for breast cancer antigen (BRCA) testing. First, we prospectively assessed preferences of 80 BRCA mutation carriers at five different points in time ranging from 1 week after blood sampling up to 9 months after BRCA-test disclosure. Second, we applied univariate and multivariate regression analyses to examine which medical, sociodemographic, and psychological factors are related to a preference for prophylactic mastectomy. Ninety percent of the women already indicated a preference regarding risk management at baseline. Moreover, most women had stable preferences over time. Furthermore, anticipated feelings of regret in case of a hypothetical breast cancer diagnosis in the near future were strongly related to risk-management preference (odds ratio = 8.93; P preferences. Many of them may be sensitive to the possibility of regret in case of a bad outcome. We discuss whether possible regret in the future is a rational reason for opting for prophylactic mastectomy, or whether it signifies an emotional coping process or strategy in which the future costs are no longer fully considered.

Selection and Mode Effects in Risk Preference Elicitation Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin; van Soest, Arthur; Wengström, Erik Roland

2008-01-01

experiment is drastically below that of the representative sample in the Internet experiment, and average risk aversion is also lower. Considering the student-like subsample of the Internet subjects and comparing a traditional lab design with an Internet-like design in the lab gives two ways to decompose......We combine data from a risk preference elicitation experiment conducted on a representative sample via the Internet with laboratory data on students for the same experiment to investigate effects of implementation mode and of subject pool selection. We find that the frequency of errors in the lab...... shows that these processes are selective in selecting subjects who make fewer errors, but do not lead to biased conclusions on risk preferences. These findings point at the usefulness of the Internet survey as an alternative to a student pool in the laboratory if the ambition is to use the experiments...

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Facts and Misconceptions about 2D:4D, Social and Risk Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso, Judit; Di Paolo, Roberto; Ponti, Giovanni; Sartarelli, Marcello

2018-01-01

We study how the ratio between the length of the second and fourth digit (2D:4D) correlates with choices in social and risk preferences elicitation tasks by building a large dataset from five experimental projects with more than 800 subjects. Our results confirm the recent literature that downplays the link between 2D:4D and many domains of economic interest, such as social and risk preferences. As for the former, we find that social preferences are significantly lower when 2D:4D is above the median value only for subjects with low cognitive ability. As for the latter, we find that a high 2D:4D is not correlated with the frequency of subjects' risky choices. PMID:29487510

Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

2013-01-01

To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

Socia preferences to Mopane woodland management options: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Socia preferences to Mopane woodland management options: A case study from Southern Zimbabwe. TA Gondo, C Musvoto, T Mujawo. Abstract. No Abstract. Discovery and Innovation Vol. 19 (1&2) 2007: pp.4-14. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

Nurse managers' preferred and perceived leadership styles: a study at an Italian hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Zampieron, Alessandra; Spanio, Daniele; Bernardi, Paola; Milan, Rosalia; Buja, Alessandra

2013-04-01

The aim of this cross-sectional descriptive study was to compare the different leadership styles based on perceptions of nurse managers and their staff. Nurse managers' styles are fundamental to improving subordinates' performance and achieving goals at health-care institutions. This was a cross-sectional study. A questionnaire developed by Ekvall & Arvonen, considering three leadership domains (Change, Production and Employee relations), was administered to all nurse managers and to their subordinates at a city hospital in north-east Italy. The comparison between the leadership styles actually adopted and those preferred by the nurse managers showed that the preferred style always scored higher than the style adopted, the difference reaching statistical significance for Change and Production. The leadership styles preferred by subordinates always scored higher than the styles their nurse managers actually adopted; in the subordinates' opinion, the differences being statistically significant in all three leadership domains. The study showed that nurse managers' expectations in relation to their leadership differ from those of their subordinates. These findings should be borne in mind when selecting and training nurse managers and other personnel, and they should influence the hospital's strategic management of nurses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Sustainable Forest Management in a Mediterranean region: Social preferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Maroto Álvarez

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: There is a lack of empirical research that deals with sustainable forest management in Mediterranean regions, among the most vulnerable ecosystems. The main purpose of this work is to define the strategic criteria and objectives for sustainable forest management and aggregate the preferences of stakeholders in a Mediterranean region, using AHP and Goal Programming.Area of study: Valencian Community (Spain.Material and Methods: Firstly, we identified forest stakeholders and structured a decision hierarchy. Then a workshop was carried out to test and validate the proposed criteria and objectives, as well as a survey to determine social preferences. Secondly, another survey was conducted amongst experts to prioritize action plans.Main results: Stakeholders’ preferences gave the greatest importance to the environmental criteria (hydrological regulation and erosion, climate change mitigation and biodiversity with an average weight of 40%.  Social criteria (employment, recreational activities and landscape had a weight of 38% and 22% the economic criteria case (wood, hunting and fishing, livestock, renewable energies, rural tourism and mining. The results showed that new products and services such as tourism, renewable energies, landscape, hydrological regulation and erosion control, biodiversity or climate change mitigation are very relevant objectives. We also prioritized action plans comparing them with the distribution of the administration budget.Research highlights: The environmental and social criteria are much more important than the economic ones in the regional planning of the Mediterranean forest, regardless of the method used to aggregate the social preferences and if the forest is public or private.Key words: Multiple Criteria Decision Making; Goal Programming; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Preferences Aggregation.

Portfolio Implementation Risk Management Using Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Quintana

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Portfolio management based on mean-variance portfolio optimization is subject to different sources of uncertainty. In addition to those related to the quality of parameter estimates used in the optimization process, investors face a portfolio implementation risk. The potential temporary discrepancy between target and present portfolios, caused by trading strategies, may expose investors to undesired risks. This study proposes an evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm aiming at regions with solutions more tolerant to these deviations and, therefore, more reliable. The proposed approach incorporates a user’s preference and seeks a fine-grained approximation of the most relevant efficient region. The computational experiments performed in this study are based on a cardinality-constrained problem with investment limits for eight broad-category indexes and 15 years of data. The obtained results show the ability of the proposed approach to address the robustness issue and to support decision making by providing a preferred part of the efficient set. The results reveal that the obtained solutions also exhibit a higher tolerance to prediction errors in asset returns and variance–covariance matrix.

[Global risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

2015-08-01

Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Report format preferences of technical managers and nonmanagers

Science.gov (United States)

Pinelli, T. E.; Cordle, V. M.; Glassman, M.; Vondran, R. F., Jr.

1984-01-01

A survey of engineers and scientists concerning the format of NASA technical reports indicates that a summary as well as an abstract should be included, that the definitions of symbols and glossary of terms should be located in the front of the report, and that the illustrative material should be integrated with the text rather than grouped at the end of the report. Citation of references by number, one-column, ragged-right-margin layout, and third-person writing style are also preferred by a majority of the respondents. The preferences of managers and nonmanagers are very similar for all aspects of technical report format covered by the survey.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

Directional preference and functional outcomes among subjects classified at high psychosocial risk using STarT.

Science.gov (United States)

Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Young, Michelle; Grigsby, David; McClenahan, Brian; McGill, Troy

2018-03-14

Physiotherapy has an important role in managing patients with non-specific low back pain who experience elevated psychosocial distress or risk for chronic disability. In terms of evidence-based physiotherapy practice, cognitive-behavioural approaches for patients at high psychosocial risk are the recommended management to improve patient treatment outcomes. Evidence also suggests that directional preference (DP) is an important treatment effect modifier for prescribing specific exercises for patients to improve outcomes. Little is known about the influence of treatment techniques based on DP on outcomes for patients classified as high psychosocial risk using the Subgroups for Targeted Treatment (STarT) Back Screening Tool. This study aimed to examine the association between functional status (FS) at rehabilitation discharge for patients experiencing low back pain classified at high STarT psychosocial risk and whose symptoms showed a DP versus No-DP. High STarT risk patients (n = 138) completed intake surveys, that is, the lumbar FS of Focus On Therapeutic Outcomes, Inc., and STarT, and were evaluated for DP by physiotherapists credentialed in McKenzie methods. The FS measure of Focus On Therapeutic Outcomes, Inc., was repeated at discharge. DP and No-DP prevalence rates were calculated. Associations between first-visit DP and No-DP and change in FS were assessed using univariate and multivariate regression models controlling for 11 risk-adjusted variables. One hundred nine patients classified as high STarT risk had complete intake and discharge FS and DP data. Prevalence rate for DP was 65.1%. A significant and clinically important difference (7.98 FS points; p = .03) in change in function at discharge between DP and No-DP was observed after controlling for all confounding variables in the final model. Findings suggest that interventions matched to DP are effective for managing high psychological risk patients and may provide physiotherapists with an

The management object in risk management approaches

OpenAIRE

Christiansen, Ulrik

2013-01-01

Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse an...

The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Ulrik

Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible....... The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

Employability attributes and personality preferences of postgraduate business management students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid Potgieter

2013-05-01

Research purpose: The purpose of the study was to determine the relationship between employees’ employability attributes (as the Employability Attributes Scale measures them and their personality preferences (as the Myers-Briggs Type indicator, Form M, measures them. Motivation for the study: There seems to be a paucity of information about how employees’ personality preferences relate to their employability attributes in South Africa’s multicultural organisational context. Research design, approach and method: The authors conducted a quantitative survey. It involved a non-probability sample of 304 early career adults enrolled for an Honour’s degree in business management in an open distance learning higher education institution. They used correlational statistics and multiple regression analyses to analyse the data. Main findings: The authors observed a number of significant relationships between the participants’ personality preferences and their employability attributes. Practical/managerial implications: Career counsellors and human resource practitioners need to recognise how employees’ personality preferences influence their employability attributes in the management of their career development and employability. Contribution/value add: The findings add to the existing career literature on the career metacompetencies that influence employees’ employability. They also provide valuable information that organisations can use for career development support and counselling practices in the contemporary world of work.

From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David J. Paulsen

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

Sweet Preference Associated with the Risk of Hypercholesterolemia Among Middle-Aged Women in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yoonjin; Lee, Soojin; Kim, Yangha

2018-04-05

Sweet preference has been reported to be associated with various health problems. This study examined the influence of sweet taste preference on the risk of dyslipidemia in Korean middle-aged women. The study selected 3,609 middle-aged women from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) and classified them into two groups on the basis of whether or not they preferred sweet taste. Dietary intake was analyzed using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Serum lipid profiles and anthropometric variables were measured. Subjects who preferred the sweet taste had significantly higher intakes of sugar products and sweet drink than those who did not prefer the sweet taste. Subjects who preferred the sweet taste showed higher carbohydrate and fat intake and less fiber intake than those who did not prefer the sweet taste. The serum concentrations of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol were significantly higher in subjects who preferred the sweet taste than those who did not prefer. Furthermore, subjects who preferred the sweet taste showed a significantly higher odds ratio (OR) for hypercholesterolemia (OR 1.22; 95% CI (1.01-1.45)) and hyper-LDL cholesterolemia (OR 1.33; 95% CI (1.11-1.60)) than those who did not prefer the sweet taste. Our results suggested that preference for sweet taste may increase the consumption of sugar products and sweet drinks, which is partially linked to the risk of hypercholesterolemia and hyper-LDL cholesterolemia in Korean middle-aged women.

A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kajal Chatterjee

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders’ lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information’s, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster–Shafer (D–S theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR. An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed

Transport priorities, risk perception and worry associated with mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters.

Science.gov (United States)

Nordfjærn, Trond; Simşekoğlu, Özlem; Lind, Hans Brende; Jørgensen, Stig Halvard; Rundmo, Torbjørn

2014-11-01

There is currently scant research on the role of transport priorities, risk perception and worry for travel mode use and preferences. The present study aims to examine these factors in relation to mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters. A web-based survey was conducted in a randomly obtained representative sample of daily commuters in the extended greater Oslo area (n=690). The results showed that those who prioritized efficiency and flexibility tended to commute by car, while those who prioritized safety and comfort used public (e.g. metro, tram, and train) or active (e.g. walking and cycling) transport. In a free choice scenario, the respondents who prioritized flexibility reported a preference for using a car, whereas those who prioritized safety and comfort preferred public and active transport for their commuter travels. Risk perception of high impact events, such as terrorism and major accidents, as well as risk perception related to personal impact risks (theft, violence etc.) were related to car use on commuter travels. Transport-related worry exerted weak influences on mode use and preferences. Increased speed on rail transport and more frequent departures may be effective in reducing car use on commuter travels. Risk communication should focus on highlighting the low risk of experiencing security and safety issues in the public transport sector, and this message should be complemented by efforts to reduce the probability of negative events affecting public transport. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agile risk management

CERN Document Server

Moran, Alan

2014-01-01

This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

Speech preference is associated with autistic-like behavior in 18-months-olds at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtin, Suzanne; Vouloumanos, Athena

2013-09-01

We examined whether infants' preference for speech at 12 months is associated with autistic-like behaviors at 18 months in infants who are at increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) because they have an older sibling diagnosed with ASD and in low-risk infants. Only low-risk infants listened significantly longer to speech than to nonspeech at 12 months. In both groups, relative preference for speech correlated positively with general cognitive ability at 12 months. However, in high-risk infants only, preference for speech was associated with autistic-like behavior at 18 months, while in low-risk infants, preference for speech correlated with language abilities. This suggests that in children at risk for ASD an atypical species-specific bias for speech may underlie atypical social development.

Patient centered decision making: use of conjoint analysis to determine risk-benefit trade-offs for preference sensitive treatment choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Leslie; Loucks, Aimee; Bui, Christine; Gipson, Greg; Zhong, Lixian; Schwartzburg, Amy; Crabtree, Elizabeth; Goodin, Douglas; Waubant, Emmanuelle; McCulloch, Charles

2014-09-15

Understanding patient preferences facilitates shared decision-making and focuses on patient-centered outcomes. Little is known about relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patient preferences for disease modifying therapies (DMTs). We use choice based conjoint (CBC) analysis to calculate patient preferences for risk/benefit trade-offs for hypothetical DMTs. Patients with RRMS were surveyed between 2012 and 2013. Our CBC survey mimicked the decision-making process and trade-offs of patients choosing DMTs, based on all possible DMT attributes. Mixed-effects logistic regression analyzed preferences. We estimated maximum acceptable risk trade-offs for various DMT benefits. Severe side-effect risks had the biggest impact on patient preference with a 1% risk, decreasing patient preference five-fold compared to no risk. (OR=0.22, pbenefit (OR=3.68, pbenefit trade-offs for attributes of all available DMTs. Evaluation of patient preferences is a key step in shared decision making and may significantly impact early drug initiation and compliance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of capital constraints on risk preference behavior of commercial banks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Li Ma; Junxun Dai; Xian Huang

2011-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the financial supervision authority utilizes the restrictions of capital constraints imposing on commercial banks the need to develop the macro economy.Design/methodology/approach-This paper uses multilateral game to deduce the loan characteristics of banks,vector and void coordinates to analyze the behavior choices of banks under capital supervision,sets up an index to describe the risk preference of banks,and analyzes the process with Chinese data empirically.Findings-This paper finds big banks have a loan preference for big enterprises and small banks have a preference for establishing a bank syndicate to pursue large projects.Further,the paper notes the conditions by which the heterology banks choose loans across the border and proves that changes of capital requirements would force the credit structure of the commercial banks to adjust along an efficient frontier broken line or an efficient frontier plane under the conditions of interest rate regulation or interest rate marketization,respectively.Research limitations/implications-It is very complex to describe the choices of risk behavior of banks and the simple supervision method needs to be adjusted.Practical implications-This paper finds that banks show risk preferences of credit structure,and capital constraints would affect it greatly;regulators should guard against capital constraint softening.Originality/value-It is the first time that the conditions of banks beyond the loan border have been studied and the behavior adjustment of banks using the vector and void coordinate analyzed.

Preferred place of birth: characteristics and motives of low-risk nulliparous women in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

van Haaren-Ten Haken, Tamar; Hendrix, Marijke; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne; Budé, Luc; de Vries, Raymond; Nijhuis, Jan

2012-10-01

to explores preferences, characteristics and motives regarding place of birth of low-risk nulliparous women in the Netherlands. a prospective cohort study of low-risk nulliparous women and their partners starting their pregnancy in midwifery-led care or in obstetric-led care. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire, including questions on demographic, psychosocial and pregnancy factors and statements about motives with regard to place of birth. Depression, worry and self-esteem were explored using the Edinburgh Depression Scale (EDS), the Cambridge Worry Scale (CWS) and the Rosenberg Self Esteem Scale (RSE). participants were recruited in 100 independent midwifery practices and 14 hospitals from 2007 to 2011. 550 low-risk nulliparous women; 231 women preferred a home birth, 170 women a hospital birth in midwifery-led care and 149 women a birth in obstetric-led care. Significant differences in characteristics were found in the group who preferred a birth in obstetric-led care compared to the two groups who preferred midwifery-led care. Those women were older (F (2,551)=16.14, pbirth is driven by a desire for greater personal autonomy, whereas women's choice for a hospital birth is driven by a desire to feel safe and control risks. the characteristics of women who prefer a hospital birth are different than the characteristics of women who prefer a home birth. It appears that for women preferring a hospital birth, the assumed safety of the hospital is more important than type of care provider. This brings up the question whether women are fully aware of the possibilities of maternity care services. Women might need concrete information about the availability and the characteristics of the services within the maternity care system and the risks and benefits associated with either setting, in order to make an informed choice where to give birth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

CERN Document Server

Hopkin, Paul

2012-01-01

Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

Sustainable Forest Management in a Mediterranean region: social preferences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maroto, C.; Segura, M.; Ginestar, C.; Uriol, J.; Segura, B.

2013-07-01

Aim of study: There is a lack of empirical research that deals with sustainable forest management in Mediterranean regions, among the most vulnerable ecosystems. The main purpose of this work is to define the strategic criteria and objectives for sustainable forest management and aggregate the preferences of stake holders in a Mediterranean region, using AHP and Goal Programming. Area of study: Valencian Community (Spain). Material and Methods: Firstly, we identified forest stake holders and structured a decision hierarchy. Then a workshop was carried out to test and validate the proposed criteria and objectives, as well as a survey to determine social preferences. Secondly, another survey was conducted amongst experts to prioritize action plans. Main results: Stake holders preferences gave the greatest importance to the environmental criteria (hydrological regulation and erosion, climate change mitigation and biodiversity) with an average weight of 40%. Social criteria (employment, recreational activities and landscape) had a weight of 38% and 22% the economic criteria case (wood, hunting and fishing, livestock, renewable energies, rural tourism and mining). The results showed that new products and services such as tourism, renewable energies, landscape, hydrological regulation and erosion control, biodiversity or climate change mitigation are very relevant objectives. We also prioritized action plans comparing them with the distribution of the administration budget. Research highlights: The environmental and social criteria are much more important than the economic ones in the regional planning of the Mediterranean forest, regardless of the method used to aggregate the social preferences and if the forest is public or private. (Author)

Rethinking risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloman, H.F.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

New technologies for the support of risk management. A systems-engineering point of view for the creation of risk information systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beroggi, G.E.G.

1995-01-01

Within the framework of the poly project, the partial project 'Methodical Fundamentals and Computer Supported Risk Management' has developed two RISs (Risk Information Systems). The aim of the present book is to present the viewpoints gained in these new technologies and model formation attempts with which new RISs can be conceived and created. Because of the numerous new attempts, a compromise had to be made between the breadth and depth of the discussions whereby the breadth was preferred; which means that the aim is to define the broad range of RIS development as comprehensively as possible. The reader is meant to be motivated to think about the new technologies and their role in risk management. figs., tabs., refs

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Knowledge management in support of enterprise risk management

OpenAIRE

Rodriguez, Eduardo; Edwards, John S.

2014-01-01

Risk management and knowledge management have so far been studied almost independently. The evolution of risk management to the holistic view of Enterprise Risk Management requires the destruction of barriers between organizational silos and the exchange and application of knowledge from different risk management areas. However, knowledge management has received little or no attention in risk management. This paper examines possible relationships between knowledge management constructs relate...

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

Science.gov (United States)

Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

2018-01-01

Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Lopez-Guzman

Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

2018-01-01

Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

An Empirical Research on Marketing Strategies of Different Risk Preference Merchant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Holiday merchandise has unique demand characteristics, unofficial start data, and a limited life cycle. In an intensely competitive market, individual merchants are able to get more sales opportunities if they display their products earlier. In this study, a time-variant variance and time-variant expected market demand model are introduced to investigate the order strategies that are used by risk-averse holiday merchants. Our results show that risk preference, market uncertainty, and market power have a significant effect on the merchant’s market strategies. Risk-averse merchants prefer to enhance forecast accuracy rather than using an early-display advantage. They can even give up their early-display advantage if they are faced with increased market uncertainty and small market power. Compared with the fixed purchase cost, the time-sensitive purchase cost can stimulate the merchant to purchase in advance, but this can decrease the merchant’s profit. Consequently, risk-averse merchants always display their merchandise later, decrease the order quantity, and, finally, miss the market opportunity.

Risk management overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGovern, S.

1995-01-01

Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

Exploring differences in dogs’ and wolves’ preference for risk in a foraging task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Marshall-Pescini

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Both human and non-humans species face decisions in their daily lives which may entail taking risks. At the individual level, a propensity for risk-taking has been shown to be positively correlated with explorative tendencies, whereas at the species level a more variable and less stable feeding ecology has been associated with a greater preference for risky choices. In the current study we compared two closely related species; wolves and dogs, which differ significantly in their feeding ecology and their explorative tendencies. Wolves depend on hunting for survival with a success rate of between 15 and 50%, whereas free-ranging dogs (which make up 80% of the world dog population, are largely scavengers specialized on human produce i.e. a more geographically and temporally stable resource. Here, we used a foraging paradigm, which allowed subjects to choose between a guaranteed less preferred food vs. a more preferred food, which was however delivered only 50% of the time (a stone being delivered the rest of time. We compared identically raised adult wolves and dogs and found that in line with the differing feeding ecologies of the two species and their explorative tendencies, wolves showed a higher preference for risk-taking than dogs.

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

2013-06-01

Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Role of liability preferences in societal technology choices: results of a pilot study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.; Braid, B.

1985-01-01

At the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Steve Rayner presented a paper that challenged the conventional wisdom of risk management research. In that paper, he argued that resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough.'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough.'' Adopting the fairness question as the concern of risk management would imply that the process of technology choice explicitly recognize the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. This paper discusses a recent empirical pilot study which explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of nuclear power. Individual interviews and focus groups were conducted to examine whether or not preferred principles for liability distributions were consistent with those suggested by the cultural characteristics of the constituency. The results suggest that for this type of societal technology choice, violation of these preferred principles may be a major source of the conflict between different constituencies. Additionally, the study contributes towards the development of a new approach in risk management that combines the cultural model of risk perceptions with the decision-theoretic approaches found in economics and psychology

Understanding heterogeneity of social preferences for fire prevention management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varela, Elsa; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Soliño, Mario

2014-01-01

The forest area burnt annually in the European Mediterranean region has more than doubled since the 1970s. In these forests, the main preventive action consists of forest compartmentalization by fuel break networks, which entail high costs and sometimes significant negative impacts. While many...... studies look at public preferences for fire suppression, this study analyses the heterogeneity of social preferences for fire prevention. The visual characteristics of fire prevention structures are very familiar to respondents, but their management is unfamiliar, which raises specific attention in terms...... for the density of fuel breaks. These results are important for designing fire prevention policies that are efficient and acceptable by the population....

One size does not fit all: HIV testing preferences differ among high-risk groups in Northern Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostermann, Jan; Njau, Bernard; Mtuy, Tara; Brown, Derek S; Mühlbacher, Axel; Thielman, Nathan

2015-01-01

In order to maximize the effectiveness of "Seek, Test, and Treat" strategies for curbing the HIV epidemic, new approaches are needed to increase the uptake of HIV testing services, particularly among high-risk groups. Low HIV testing rates among such groups suggest that current testing services may not align well with the testing preferences of these populations. Female bar workers and male mountain porters have been identified as two important high-risk groups in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. We used conventional survey methods and a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a preference elicitation method increasingly applied by economists and policy-makers to inform health policy and services, to analyze trade-offs made by individuals and quantify preferences for HIV testing services. Bivariate descriptive statistics were used to analyze differences in survey responses across groups. Compared to 486 randomly selected community members, 162 female bar workers and 194 male Kilimanjaro porters reported 2-3 times as many lifetime sexual partners (p porters preferred testing in venues where antiretroviral therapy was readily available. Both high-risk groups were less averse to traveling longer distances to test compared to their community counterparts. These results expose systematic differences in HIV testing preferences across high-risk populations compared to their community peers. Tailoring testing options to the preferences of high-risk populations should be evaluated as a means of improving uptake of testing in these populations.

Investigation of risk management auditing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Lu

2012-01-01

2004, COSO published 'Enterprise Risk Management Framework', 2009, SASAC issued the 'central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines' to promote risk management within the formal state-owned enterprises in medium and large. Nuclear Group, which risk management in all branches to carry out the project homeopathic, and A Ⅱ will carry out risk management program as the first unit has accumulated more experience. This article from the perspective of internal control, based on the company's risk management practices carried out to try for the nuclear power enterprise risk management audit to describe and propose new ideas. Which expounds the significance of risk management, audit, risk management audit of the ways and means, for practical application of risk management audit of a representative summary of the issues and the ways and means to solve the problem of forward-looking recommendations. (authors)

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Risk preferences and aging: The “Certainty Effect” in older adults’ decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mather, Mara; Mazar, Nina; Gorlick, Marissa A.; Lighthall, Nichole R.; Burgeno, Jessica; Schoeke, Andrej; Ariely, Dan

2013-01-01

A prevalent stereotype is that people become less risk taking and more cautious as they get older. However, in laboratory studies, findings are mixed and often reveal no age differences. In the current series of experiments, we examined whether age differences in risk seeking are more likely to emerge when choices include a certain option (a sure gain or a sure loss). In four experiments, we found that age differences in risk preferences only emerged when participants were offered a choice between a risky and a certain gamble but not when offered two risky gambles. In particular, Experiments 1 and 2 included only gambles about potential gains. Here, compared with younger adults, older adults preferred a certain gain over a chance to win a larger gain and thus, exhibited more risk aversion in the domain of gains. But in Experiments 3 and 4, when offered the chance to take a small sure loss rather than risking a larger loss, older adults exhibited more risk seeking in the domain of losses than younger adults. Both their greater preference for sure gains and greater avoidance of sure losses suggest that older adults weigh certainty more heavily than younger adults. Experiment 4 also indicates that older adults focus more on positive emotions than younger adults do when considering their options and that this emotional shift can at least partially account for age differences in how much people are swayed by certainty in their choices. PMID:23066800

Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

1999-01-01

Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Agricultural risk management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

2005-01-01

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

Commodity risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilary Till

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

Tailoring in risk communication by linking risk profiles and communication preferences: The case of speeding of young car drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Geber, Sarah; Baumann, Eva; Klimmt, Christoph

2016-12-01

Speeding is one of the most relevant risk behaviors for serious and fatal accidents, particularly among young drivers. This study presents a tailoring strategy for anti-speeding communication. By referring to their motivational dispositions toward speeding derived from motivational models of health behavior, young car drivers were segmented into different risk groups. In order to ensure that risk communication efforts would actually be capable to target these groups, the linkage between the risk profiles and communication preferences were explored. The study was conducted on the basis of survey data of 1168 German car drivers aged between 17 and 24 years. The data reveal four types of risk drivers significantly differing in their motivational profiles. Moreover, the findings show significant differences in communication habits and media use between these risk groups. By linking the risk profiles and communication preferences, implications for tailoring strategies of road safety communication campaigns are derived. Promising segmentation and targeting strategies are discussed also beyond the current case of anti-speeding campaigns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal Audit and Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

2011-01-01

Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives

Science.gov (United States)

David E. Calkin; Tyron Venn; Matthew Wibbenmeyer; Matthew P. Thompson

2012-01-01

Wildfire management involves significant complexity and uncertainty, requiring simultaneous consideration of multiple, non-commensurate objectives. This paper investigates the tradeoffs fire managers are willing to make among these objectives using a choice experiment methodology that provides three key advancements relative to previous stated-preference studies...

Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

OpenAIRE

Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

2007-01-01

Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

Self-esteem, interpersonal risk, and preference for e-mail to face-to-face communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Joinson, Adam N

2004-08-01

The media choices made by high and low self-esteem Internet users were studied using web-based methodology (n = 265). Participants were asked to rank four media (face-to-face, e-mail, letter, and telephone) in order of preference across four different communication scenarios designed to pose an interpersonal risk. The level of interpersonal risk posed by two of the scenarios (asking for a pay rise and asking for a date) were also experimentally manipulated by randomly allocating participants to a 25%, 50%, or 75% chance of rejection. Low self-esteem users (LSE) showed a significant preference toward e-mail communication compared to high self-esteem users (HSE). This pattern was reversed for face-to-face preferences. Similarly, a greater chance of rejection in a scenario led to e-mail being preferred to face-to-face communication. The results are discussed in light of both the strategic use of different media and the motivated Internet user.

Certification and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva Fernandez, M.

2015-01-01

Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

Contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM) versus MRI in the high-risk screening setting: patient preferences and attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Jordana; Miller, Matthew M; Mehta, Tejas S; Fein-Zachary, Valerie; Nathanson, Audrey; Hori, Wendy; Monahan-Earley, Rita; Slanetz, Priscilla J

Our study evaluates patient preferences toward screening CESM versus MRI. As part of a prospective study, high-risk patients had breast MRI and CESM. Patients completed an anonymous survey to evaluate preferences regarding the two modalities. 88% of participants completed the survey. 79% preferred CESM over MRI if the exams had equal sensitivity. 89% would be comfortable receiving contrast as part of an annual screening test. High-risk populations may accept CESM as a screening exam and may prefer it over screening MRI if ongoing trials demonstrate screening CESM to be clinically non-inferior MRI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How Preferences for Public Participation are Linked to Perceptions of the Context, Preferences for Outcomes, and Individual Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Tuler, Seth; Webler, Thomas

2010-08-01

Practitioners and stakeholders involved in environmental and risk assessment and decision-making efforts have access to a growing list of policies and guidance for implementing good process. The advice is often general. There is little understanding of how situation specific features are relevant in new circumstances. In a series of ten case studies we investigated how people’s (a) perceptions of the context, (b) preferences for outcomes, and (c) affiliations, experiences and motivations are related to their preferences for process features in a particular situation. The cases are in three policy areas: watershed management, forestry management, and clean-up and public health management of radioactively contaminated sites. We conclude this paper with a discussion of how the results can inform process design. Process design should be based on a diagnostic approach that specifically assesses relevant situational characteristics.

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

Do general practitioners' risk-taking propensities and learning styles influence their continuing medical education preferences?

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Geoffrey

2002-01-01

US studies have shown that a clinician's risk-taking propensity significantly predicts clinical behaviour. Other US studies examining relationships between family practice doctors' preferences for CME and their Kolb learning style have described conflicting findings. The aim of the present study was to investigate GPs' learning styles, risk-taking propensities and CME preferences, and to explore links between them. A descriptive confidential cross-sectional postal questionnaire survey of the 304 general practitioner principals within Portsmouth and South East Hampshire Health Authority was conducted. Two hundred and seventy-four GPs returned questionnaires, a response rate of 90.1%. The Kolb learning style types were assimilators 43.8% (predominant learning abilities watching and thinking), divergers 21.1% (feeling and watching), convergers 18.3% (doing and thinking), and accommodators 16.8% (doing and feeling). The Pearson risk-taking propensities were 65.8% risk neutral, 19.4% risk seeking and 14.8% risk averse. Risk-seeking GPs were significantly more likely to be accommodators or convergers than divergers or assimilators (p = 0.006). Majorities of 54.9% stated that the present PGEA system works well, 85% welcomed feedback from their peers, and 76.8% stated that learning should be an activity for all the practice team. Further majorities would welcome help to decide their learning needs (63.8%) and are looking to judge CME effectiveness by changes in GP performance or patient care (54.8%). Further significant correlations and cross-tabulations were found between learning style and risk-taking and CME attitudes, experiences and preferences. It is concluded that risk seekers and accommodators (doing and feeling) prefer feedback, interaction and practical hands-on learning, and assimilators (watching and thinking) and the risk averse tend towards lectures, theoretical learning formats and less interactive activities. Sharing feelings in groups may be difficult for

Risk management in Takaful

OpenAIRE

Akhter, Waheed

2010-01-01

Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

Communicating Risk to Program Managers

Science.gov (United States)

Shivers, C. Herbert

2005-01-01

Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

Governmental management of chemical risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, R.

1990-01-01

This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Science.gov (United States)

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Risk management in customs control

OpenAIRE

Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza

2016-01-01

The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.

Consumers' preferences for Integrated Pest Management: Experimental insights

OpenAIRE

Biguzzi, Coralie; Ginon, Emilie; Gomez-y-Paloma, Sergio; Langrell, Sergio; Lefebvre, Marianne; Marette, Stephan; Mateu, Guillermo; Sutan, Angela

2014-01-01

This article aims to analyse consumers' preferences for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), in comparison to conventional and organic food products. It analyses the case of tomatoes, based on experimental data of 189 French consumers. We find that consumers are more interested in information on the production system than on the characteristics of the final product in terms of pesticide residue levels, and more in IPM than organic. While information on IPM production increases consumers' willing...

Financial Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

2011-01-01

Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

Value driven classroom management-the congruence between the preferred and the democratic values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatma Özmen

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The rapid changes in all areas of communities have raised the level of concerns about weakening of the societal values. And many academics and researchers have begun to become interested in the issues for placing especially the democratic values in education more than ever before, in order to constitute more livable social environments. The goal of this study is, on the basis of gender variable, to determine what values have driven the teachers in their classroom management practices, and to find out if these values are congruent with the democratic principles. The research group comprises 68 teachers working in Regional Public Boarding Schools. The teachers were asked to list the most and the least preferred values in classroom management from a predetermined value list. The analysis of the data revealed that the most desired 10 values used by teachers in classroom management practices were generally common between female and male gender groups and both groups’ preferences indicated similar results. ‘Honesty’ and ‘responsibility’ take at the top of the most preferred value list. However, the value of ‘equality’ which is indispensible for maintaining democracyin classroom, was preferred by less than half of the teachers. And the values such as peace, freedom, social recognition and the like were not given place in the most preferred value list. The least preferred ten values were generally the ones which were not directly related to democracy. These results indicate that some essential values related to democracy are not given much importance. It is recommended that teachers should be trained well about creating democratic classroom settings especially in pre-service education. And, school leaders should give utmost importance to constitute a democratic school environment; and school wide practices should be congruent with democratic principles so as to form it as a life style.

Optimizing risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kindred, G.W.

2000-01-01

Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

Risk management and safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

1985-01-01

Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

Diabetes connect: African American men's preferences for a community-based diabetes management program.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabtree, Krysia; Sherrer, Nathan; Rushton, Tullia; Willig, Amanda; Agne, April; Shelton, Tanya; Cherrington, Andrea

2015-02-01

The purpose of the study is to explore African American men's perceptions of how community-based, community-health worker (CHW)-delivered diabetes interventions might best be implemented. Four 90-minute focus groups were guided by a trained moderator with a written guide to facilitate discussion on the topic of diabetes management and preferences for community-based programs. Participants were recruited from the diabetes education database at a safety-net health system in Jefferson County, AL. Two independent reviewers performed content analysis to identify major themes using an iterative, combined deductive and inductive approach. There were 25 male participants. Mean years living with diabetes was 9.6 (range, 1-20). Participants demonstrated knowledge of self-management strategies and identified various hardships including emotional and physical manifestations of diabetes, dietary restrictions, and institutional frustrations with the health system that contributed to self-management barriers. Their preferred CHW responsibilities were to educate, hold support groups, help track daily activities, and help find resources. Potential concerns included the need for confidentiality and fears of being stereotyped. Participants identified critical self-management strategies but endure hardships that present barriers to daily diabetes management. Preferences for community-based programs and suggested CHW responsibilities could help to overcome many of those barriers by increasing access and providing support. © 2014 The Author(s).

Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

CERN Document Server

Pandian, C Ravindranath

2006-01-01

Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

Preferences for breast cancer risk reduction among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers: a discrete-choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liede, Alexander; Mansfield, Carol A; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Price, Melanie A; Snyder, Carrie; Lynch, Henry T; Friedman, Sue; Amelio, Justyna; Posner, Joshua; Narod, Steven A; Lindeman, Geoffrey J; Evans, D Gareth

2017-09-01

Unaffected women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face difficult choices about reducing their breast cancer risk. Understanding their treatment preferences could help us improve patient counseling and inform drug trials. The objective was to explore preferences for various risk-reducing options among women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations using a discrete-choice experiment survey and to compare expressed preferences with actual behaviors. A discrete-choice experiment survey was designed wherein women choose between hypothetical treatments to reduce breast cancer risk. The hypothetical treatments were characterized by the extent of breast cancer risk reduction, treatment duration, impact on fertility, hormone levels, risk of uterine cancer, and ease and mode of administration. Data were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model. Women were also asked to express their preference between surgical and chemoprevention options and to report on their actual risk-reduction actions. Women aged 25-55 years with germline BRCA1/2 mutations who were unaffected with breast or ovarian cancer were recruited through research registries at five clinics and a patient advocacy group. Between January 2015 and March 2016, 622 women completed the survey. Breast cancer risk reduction was the most important consideration expressed, followed by maintaining fertility. Among the subset of women who wished to have children in future, the ability to maintain fertility was the most important factor, followed by the extent of risk reduction. Many more women said they would take a chemoprevention drug than had actually taken chemoprevention. Women with BRCA1/2 mutations indicated strong preferences for breast cancer risk reduction and maintaining fertility. The expressed desire to have a safe chemoprevention drug available to them was not met by current chemoprevention options.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

2006-01-01

Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

OpenAIRE

Bram Pieket Weeserik; Marco Spruit

2018-01-01

Operational Risk Management (ORM) comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM) technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined ...

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Valerievna Drobot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Risk management in nuclear projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salles, Claudio J.R.

2002-01-01

The risk management will be defined by different aspects: danger or loss possibility, or responsibility for damage. The risk management is one stage of project management. The risk management is a continuous process of planning, identification, quantification, answer and risk control to maximize the success potential of activity. The reduction of risk is part of priority establishment. This work will indicate how introduce this important instrument in the management of nuclear projects. (author)

Risk Management for e-Business

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In the new Internet economy, risk management plays a critical role to protect the organization and its ability to perform their business mission, not just its IT assets. Risk management is the process of identifying risk, assessing risk, and taking steps to reduce risk to an acceptable level. The risk management is an important component of a IT security program. Information and communications technology management and IT security are responsible for ensuring that technology risks are managed appropriately. These risks originate from the deployment and use of IT assets in various ways, such as configuring systems incorrectly or gaining access to restricted software.

Beverage preference and risk of alcohol-use disorders: a Danish prospective cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flensborg-Madsen, Trine; Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether preferred type of alcoholic beverage influences the later risk of alcohol-use disorders (AUD). METHOD: A prospective cohort study was used, comprising three updated measures of alcohol intake and covariates, and 26 years of follow-up data...... on 18,146 individuals from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. The study population was linked to three different registers to detect AUD registrations. RESULTS: For both genders, wine drinking was associated with lower risk of AUD irrespective of the weekly amount of alcohol consumed. Women...... women or men. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who include wine when they drink alcohol have lower risks of AUD, independent of the total amount of alcohol consumed. The most likely explanation of these results is that lifestyle factors and personal characteristics are associated with beverage preference....

Decisionmaking under risk in invasive species management: risk management theory and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Shefali V. Mehta; Robert G. Haight; Frances R. Homans

2010-01-01

Invasive species management is closely entwined with the assessment and management of risk that arises from the inherently random nature of the invasion process. The theory and application of risk management for invasive species with an economic perspective is reviewed in this synthesis. Invasive species management can be delineated into three general categories:...

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

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Ming Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

2018-04-13

Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

The relation of risk-taking propensity, professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosić-Marković Olga

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Research has shown that risk-taking individuals choose professions that involve a high level of uncertainty, change or flexibility. The aim of this research was to study the relation between risk-taking propensity and professional preferences, as well as between different indicators of the approach to the selection of future profession and risk-taking propensity. The study was conducted on the sample of 583 students attending the final grade of secondary school. For the assessment of risk-taking propensity we used a modified version of the Evaluation of Risk scale (EVAR, while professional interests were investigated by the Test of Professional Orientation (TPO. In addition, we analysed certain indicators of the approach to the selection of profession that were interesting in the context of career counselling, namely: duration of the selection of profession, the number of professional preferences and readiness to make a professional choice. The results have shown that risk-taking propensity is significantly correlated with professional preferences where risk is an important job feature (such as professions in the field of security as well as with the professions where risk is an important part of success (such as sports. It has also been shown that risk-taking individuals assess themselves as more ready to make decisions on their own professional choice. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that risk-taking propensity is an important characteristic that should be taken into account when studying professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession in adolescents.

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

THE ALGORITHM IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ON THE MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Agafonov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Summary. In the article the author conducted a comprehensive assessment of the factors and the level of operational risk, environmental risk, security risk, political risk, marketing risk, economic risk and infrastructure risk market of tourist services in Russia in 2015. As a result of the analysis of risks and measures for risk management, applied in Russian market of tourist services has now been found that the most serious risk is the risk of reducing the demand for travel companies for various reasons, the main of which is the reduction of incomes of the population and the preference of consumers to buy tourism services directly from the enterprises in the hospitality without the participation of tourist companies through the spread of information and communication technologies. It offers innovative risk manag ement tools in the field of tourism companies and the market of tourist services, such as: creating a site with reviews based on tourism and the provision of professional advice on tourism for their customers; collaboration with the insurance companies and the provision of a large insurance tourists from unsuccessful rest and bad experiences; sales booked, but hotel rooms sold abroad at an auction; creation of a network of hotels where you can pay in Russian rubles. An author algorithm implementation of the risk management system on the market of tourist services.

Exploring preferences for symptom management in primary care: a discrete choice experiment using a questionnaire survey.

Science.gov (United States)

McAteer, Anne; Yi, Deokhee; Watson, Verity; Norwood, Patricia; Ryan, Mandy; Hannaford, Philip C; Elliott, Alison M

2015-07-01

Symptoms are important drivers for the use of primary care services. Strategies aimed at shifting the focus away from the GP have broadened the range of primary healthcare available. To explore preferences for managing symptoms and investigate trade-offs that the public are willing to make when deciding between different primary care services. UK-wide postal questionnaire survey of 1370 adults. A discrete choice experiment examined management preferences for three symptoms of differing seriousness (diarrhoea, dizziness, and chest pain). Willingness-to-pay estimates compared preferences between symptoms, and by sex, age, and income. Preferences differed significantly between symptoms. 'Self-care' was the preferred action for diarrhoea and 'consulting a GP' for dizziness and chest pain. 'Waiting time' and 'chance of a satisfactory outcome' were important factors for all three symptoms, although their relative importance differed. Broadly, people were more prepared to wait longer and less prepared to trade a good chance of a satisfactory outcome for symptoms rated as more serious. Generally, preferences within subgroups followed similar patterns as for the whole sample, although there were differences in the relative strength of preferences. Despite increased choices in primary care, 'traditional' actions of 'self-care' for minor symptoms and 'GP consultation' for more serious symptoms were preferred. The present findings suggest, however, that people may be willing to trade between different health services, particularly for less serious symptoms. Understanding the relative importance of different factors may help inform interventions aimed at changing management behaviour or improving services. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Construction Management Risk System (CMRS for Construction Management (CM Firms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyungmo Park

2017-02-01

Full Text Available After the global financial crisis of 2008, the need for risk management arose because it was necessary to minimize the losses in construction management (CM firms. This was caused by a decreased amount of orders in the Korean CM market, which intensified order competition between companies. However, research results revealed that risks were not being systematically managed owing to the absence of risk management systems. Thus, it was concluded that it was necessary to develop standard operating systems and implement risk management systems in order to manage risks effectively. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a construction risk management system (CRMS for systematically managing risks. For this purpose, the field operation managers of CM firms were interviewed and surveyed in order to define risk factors. Upon this, a risk assessment priority analysis was performed. Finally, a risk management system that comprised seven modules and 20 sub-modules and was capable of responding systematically to risks was proposed. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this system was verified through on-site inspection. This system allows early response to risks, accountability verification and immediate response to legal disputes with clients by managing risk records.

Information Risk Management and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Dynes, Scott

Are the levels of information risk management efforts within and between firms correlated with the resilience of the firms to information disruptions? This paper examines the question by considering the results of field studies of information risk management practices at organizations and in supply chains. The organizations investigated differ greatly in the degree of coupling from a general and information risk management standpoint, as well as in the levels of internal awareness and activity regarding information risk management. The comparison of the levels of information risk management in the firms and their actual or inferred resilience indicates that a formal information risk management approach is not necessary for resilience in certain sectors.

Continuous Risk Management at NASA

Science.gov (United States)

Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

1999-01-01

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

Public Governance Quality and Tax Compliance Behavior in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of Financial Condition and Risk Preference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James O. Alabede

2011-06-01

public governance quality on tax compliance behavior of individual taxpayers as well as the moderating effect of financial condition and risk preference on tax compliance and its determinants. This study extended tax compliance model to incorporate public governance quality and moderating effects of financial condition and risk preference.

IMPLEMENTING A RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin PREDA

2013-01-01

Full Text Available After risk management “conquered” more and more project managers’ minds and showed its benefits for business and programs, the need to have a global risk management standard has become a crucial issue in the world of risk management. But having a global risk management standard has been a big challenge, starting from the decision of developing the standard (March-June 2005, to the moment of publishing it, November 2009. So, developing the ISO 31000:2009 standard has been more or less like a bumpy ride. Apparently, the people involved in developing the global risk management standard understood from the very beginning that no challenges are too big, nor any tasks too small and that the task of having a new, comprehensive global risk management standard should be completed with excellence: defining the principles and the framework guiding the risk management process applicable for all type of organizations and for a wide range of activities. Coming up with a global standard should always be based on the real organizations’ needs and should fulfill real risk management requirements. The article is trying to present the pros and cons of risk management standard implementation, challenging the implementation process itself and the added value of implementing the standard due to the lack of implementation enablers, like risk culture, a real problem especially in an international environment.

HOW DEPRESSION AND SOCIAL MEDIA PREFERENCES AFFECT FINANCIAL INVESTMENT&GAMBLING RISK TAKING BEHAVIOURS

OpenAIRE

YALVAC HAMURCU, H. Dilek; HAMURCU, Çağrı

2017-01-01

This study mainly examines the relationship between financial investment and gambling risk-taking tendencies and depression. In addition, how financial investment and gambling risk taking attitudes and depression level change with respect to age, gender and social media preferences are also analyzed in this study. DOSPERT Scale with subscales of financial investment and gambling and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are used for evaluating financial investment&gambling risk-taking tende...

CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

2015-06-01

After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

individual vs. collective behavior: an experimental. investigation of risk and time preferences in couples

OpenAIRE

Abdellaoui, Mohammed; l'Haridon, Olivier; Paraschiv, Corina

2010-01-01

Author's abstract. This paper study decision-making under risk and decision-making over time made by couples. We performed a joint experimental elicitation of risk and time preferences both for couples and for their individual members. We used general behavioral models of decision under risk and over time and measured utility, probability weighting, and discounting. Under risk, our main result is that probabilistic risk attitude for couples lay within the boundaries of individual attitudes: c...

DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin PREDA

2012-01-01

Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

Risk and/or resilience management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Paul Louisot

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Risk management aims at managing all the uncertainties that may interfere with the objectives and missions of the organization. Resilience engineering aims at building its capacity to get over disturbances or stress while keeping the functionalities needed to survive, and possibly thrive. A recently open debate on an Internet blog launched by the risk managers of the Scottish Widows Bank seems to arise from what some professionals see as two competing branches of the management sciences. Whereas through the development of ERM – Enterprise-wide Risk Management – risk management is emerging at last to become a science, as well as an art and a practice, the mentioned above centered on the role of a newly forged name “resilience management”. This opens a new front of the many debates that could derail the path to maturity of Risk Management as a science and reopen new silos much as Business Impact Analysis, BIA, or continuity management, might do if a clear distinction is not made between science, objectives and tools. However, because organizations are so interconnected today in the supply cloud that it is inevitable that they will face catastrophic risk and this is why resilience needs to be a core objective of any risk management plan? Whereas traditional risk management techniques alone may not be adequate to deal with such pervasive and insipient risk scenarios, resilience is ingrained into ERM

Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Lima de Miranda

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i others’ responses (without sex specification, (ii men’s responses, and (iii women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies.

Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich

2018-01-01

Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846

Patient Preferences for Pain Management in Advanced Cancer: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Meads, David M; O'Dwyer, John L; Hulme, Claire T; Chintakayala, Phani; Vinall-Collier, Karen; Bennett, Michael I

2017-10-01

Pain from advanced cancer remains prevalent, severe and often under-treated. The aim of this study was to conduct a discrete choice experiment with patients to understand their preferences for pain management services and inform service development. Focus groups were used to develop the attributes and levels of the discrete choice experiment. The attributes were: waiting time, type of healthcare professional, out-of-pocket costs, side-effect control, quality of communication, quality of information and pain control. Patients completed the discrete choice experiment along with clinical and health-related quality of life questions. Conditional and mixed logit models were used to analyse the data. Patients with cancer pain (n = 221) and within palliative care services completed the survey (45% were female, mean age 64.6 years; age range 21-92 years). The most important aspects of pain management were: good pain control, zero out-of-pocket costs and good side-effect control. Poor or moderate pain control and £30 costs drew the highest negative preferences. Respondents preferred control of side effects and provision of better information and communication, over access to certain healthcare professionals. Those with lower health-related quality of life were less willing to wait for treatment and willing to incur higher costs. The presence of a carer influenced preferences. Outcome attributes were more important than process attributes but the latter were still valued. Thus, supporting self-management, for example by providing better information on pain may be a worthwhile endeavour. However, service provision may need to account for individual characteristics given the heterogeneity in preferences.

Supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

2013-01-01

Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

Diet preferences of goats in a subtropical dry forest and implications for habitat management

Science.gov (United States)

Genie M. Fleming; Joseph Wunderle Jr.; David N. Ewert

2016-01-01

As part of an experimental study of using controlled goat grazing to manage winter habitat of the Kirtland’s warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered Nearctic neotropical migratory bird, we evaluated diet preferences of domesticated goats within early successional subtropical dry forest in The Bahamas. We expected goats would show a low preference for two plants (...

Data Management in Metagenomics: A Risk Management Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipe Ferreira

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In eScience, where vast data collections are processed in scientific workflows, new risks and challenges are emerging. Those challenges are changing the eScience paradigm, mainly regarding digital preservation and scientific workflows. To address specific concerns with data management in these scenarios, the concept of the Data Management Plan was established, serving as a tool for enabling digital preservation in eScience research projects. We claim risk management can be jointly used with a Data Management Plan, so new risks and challenges can be easily tackled. Therefore, we propose an analysis process for eScience projects using a Data Management Plan and ISO 31000 in order to create a Risk Management Plan that can complement the Data Management Plan. The motivation, requirements and validation of this proposal are explored in the MetaGen-FRAME project, focused in Metagenomics.

Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, B.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

CERN Document Server

Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2015-01-01

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Value of risk management

OpenAIRE

Vik, Marie Amdal

2012-01-01

Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

Supply Cain Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Goodwin, Les

2011-01-01

“The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

Credit risk management in banks

OpenAIRE

Pětníková, Tereza

2014-01-01

The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

Management of business risks

OpenAIRE

BAZARBAY A.

2015-01-01

The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

The Uncertainties of Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

2014-01-01

for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

Risk management and corporate value

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Cupic

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a theoretical framework for assessing the impact of risk management on corporate value. As the relevant factors that determine this impact, the paper analyzes market imperfections and investors’ risk aversion. The results of the present research indicate that risk management contributes to an increase in corporate value if, under the influence of market imperfections, corporate risk exposure is concave. As an expression of market imperfections, the paper analyzes the costs of financial distress, agency costs, and taxation. The results of the research also indicate that the risk management policy should not aim to minimize, but rather optimize risk exposure, by taking into account the costs of risk management, investors’ risk aversion and the competitive advantage a corporation has on the relevant market.

CEA: risk management assessment 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

2012-01-01

This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-06-01

This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

2015-01-01

Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan K. O'Brien

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching and whole-body leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory. Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the whole-body task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the whole-body movements than in arm-reaching at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects’ inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

2015-01-01

Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Risk management at university

OpenAIRE

Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

2013-01-01

This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

At risk of being risky: The relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

OpenAIRE

Marc D. Rudolph; Oscar Miranda-Domínguez; Alexandra O. Cohen; Kaitlyn Breiner; Laurence Steinberg; Richard J. Bonnie; Elizabeth S. Scott; Kim Taylor-Thompson; Jason Chein; Karla C. Fettich; Jennifer A. Richeson; Danielle V. Dellarco; Adriana Galván; B.J. Casey; Damien A. Fair

2017-01-01

Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N = 212; 10–25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a ...

"I just forget to take it": asthma self-management needs and preferences in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Ellen S; Philbert, Daphne; de Vries, Tjalling W; van Dijk, Liset; Bouvy, Marcel L

2015-10-01

Medication adherence rates often decline as children become teenagers. Effective adherence-enhancing interventions for adolescents are lacking. The objective of this study was to assess adolescent asthmatics needs and preferences regarding medication counseling and support, with focus on new media. Three focus groups including 21 asthmatic adolescents recruited from both primary and secondary care were held to explore needs and preferences regarding asthma-self management. Questions concerned adherence behavior and needs and preferences in adherence support with focus on new media (mobile technology, social media, health games). Forgetting was mentioned as major reason for not using medication as prescribed. Adolescents also mentioned lack of perceived need or beneficial effects. Parents mainly play a role in reminding to take medication and collecting refills. The suggested strategies to support self-management included smartphone applications with a reminder function and easy access to online information. Participants were positive about sharing of experiences with other teenagers. Forgetfulness is a major reason for non-adherence in adolescents. Furthermore, our results suggest use of peer support may be helpful in promoting good medication use. Future interventions should be aimed at providing practical reminders and should be modifiable to individual preferences.

Sex Differences in Risk Preference and c-Fos Expression in Paraventricular Thalamic Nucleus of Rats During Gambling Task

Science.gov (United States)

Ishii, Hironori; Onodera, Mariko; Ohara, Shinya; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro; Iijima, Toshio

2018-01-01

Different biological requirements between males and females may cause sex differences in decision preference when choosing between taking a risk to get a higher gain or taking a lower but sure gain. Several studies have tested this assumption in rats, however the conclusion remains controversial because the previous real-world like gambling tasks contained a learning component to track a global payoff of probabilistic outcome in addition to risk preference. Therefore, we modified a simple gambling task allowing us to exclude such learning effect, and investigated the sex difference in risk preference of rats and its neural basis. The task required water deprived rats to choose between a risky option which provided four drops of water or no reward at a 50% random chance vs. a sure option which provided predictable amount x (x = 1, 2, 3, 4). The amount and the risk were explicitly instructed so that different choice conditions could be tested trial by trial without re-learning of reward contingency. Although both sexes correctly chose the sure option with the same level of accuracy when the sure option provided the best offer (x = 4), they exhibited different choice performances when two options had the same expected value (x = 2). Males and females both preferred to take risky choices than sure choices (risk seeking), but males were more risk seeking than females. Outcome-history analysis of their choice pattern revealed that females reduced their risk preference after losing risky choices, whereas males did not. Rather, as losses continued, reaction time for subsequent risky choices got shorter in males. Given that significant sex difference features mainly emerged after negative experiences, male and female rats may evaluate an unsuccessful outcome of their decision in different manners. Furthermore, c-Fos expression in the paraventricular nucleus of the thalamus (PV) was higher in the gambling task than for the control task in males while c-fos levels did not

Role of NDT in risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, Jr. James F.

2009-01-01

Risk management is identifying and then managing threats that could severely affect or bring down a company. This involves reviewing the operations of the company to include the process, equipment, procedures and personnel. Potential threats are then identified including their probability of occurrence, and then taking appropriate actions to address the most likely threats. Traditionally, risk management was thought of as mostly getting the right insurance. However, this impression of risk management has changed dramatically. With the recent increase in rules and regulations and optimizing utilization of key resources, risk management is becoming a management practice that is as important as financial or facilities management. In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss and greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. (author)

Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bishu, Kinfe G.; O'Reilly, Seamus; Lahiff, Edward

2018-01-01

This study analyzes cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use survey data from a sample of 356 farmers based on multistage random sampling. Factor analysis is employed to classify scores of risk and management strategies, and multiple...... utilization were perceived as the most important strategies for managing risks. Livestock disease and labor shortage were perceived as less of a risk by farmers who adopted the practice of zero grazing compared to other farmers, pointing to the potential of this practice for risk reduction. We find strong...... evidence that farmers engage in multiple risk management practices in order to reduce losses from cattle morbidity and mortality. The results suggest that government strategies that aim at reducing farmers’ risk need to be tailored to specific farm and farmer characteristics. Findings from this study have...

VIERS- User Preference Service

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The Preferences service provides a means to store, retrieve, and manage user preferences. The service supports definition of enterprise wide preferences, as well as...

The Key to Risk Management: Management

OpenAIRE

Adrian E. Tschoegl

2000-01-01

The Barings, Daiwa Bank and Sumitomo Corp. financial debacles in the mid-1990s suggest that management failures rather than misfortune, errors, or complexity are a major source of the risk of financial debacles. These errors are systematic and are a concommittant of the structure of trading and of human nature. Risk management systems must take these facts into account.

Factors Explaining Management Preferences of Accounting for Goodwill Prior to the Implementation of IFRS 3: A Cross-Country Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emita W. Astami

2006-01-01

The results show that accounting practices for goodwill vary significantly across country of origins and across industry groups. Two economic variables significantly explain management preferences of accounting for goodwill. The finding shows that the higher a company’s financial leverage ratio the company managers prefer to write off goodwill immediately against income or to capitalize and amortize it in a sorter period of time. The higher a company’s size, the more likely the company would write-off of goodwill to balance sheet reserves. Thus, this study provides empirical evidence that management preferences of accounting for goodwill have economic consequences.

Nuclear Waste Management, Nuclear Power, and Energy Choices Public Preferences, Perceptions, and Trust

CERN Document Server

Greenberg, Michael

2013-01-01

Hundreds of studies have investigated public perceptions and preferences about nuclear power, waste management, and technology. However there is clear lack of uniformity in the style, aims and methods applied.  Consequently, the body of results is inconsistent and it is difficult to isolate relevant patterns or interpretations. Nuclear Waste Management, Nuclear Power and Energy Choices: Public Preferences, Perceptions and Trust presents a theoretical base for public reactions then classifies and reviews the large body of surveys carried out over the past decade.   Particular focus is placed on residents within 50 miles US nuclear waste facilities due to the disproportionate presence of nuclear factors in their lives such as the legacy of nuclear waste disposal and job dependency. The motivations and reasons for their views such as fear, attraction to the economic benefits, trust of site managers and federal agencies, cultural views, personal history, and demographic attributes of the people are also conside...

The NASA risk management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchbinder, B.; Philipson, L.L.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that the NASA Risk Management Program has been established to ensure the appropriate application of risk-based procedures in support of the elimination, reduction, or acceptance of significant safety risks of concern in NASA. The term appropriate is emphasized, in that the particular procedures applied to each given risk are to reflect its character and prioritized importance, the technological and economic feasibility of its treatment. A number of key documents have been produced in support of this implementation. Databases, risk analysis tools, and risk communication procedures requisite to the execution of the risk management functions also are being developed or documented. Several risk management applications have been made and a comprehensive application to a major new NASA program is underway. This paper summarizes the development and current status of the NASA Risk Management Program. Some principal actions that have been carried out in NASA in consonance with the program are noted particularly, and views are presented on the program's likely future directions

Risk Management in Mergers and Acquisitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry O. Verdiev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available M&A statistics show that less than a third of newly merged companies has realized their planned synergistic effects and increased shareholder value. According to the author, such disgusting situation is due to improper planning and failure of corporate management to understand the importance of risk management in M&A. Lack of practice in identification, evaluation, mitigation and regular monitoring of risks leads to the situation when many companies merge despite the fact that the merger bears substantial risks. Corporate management fails to include risk mitigation expenses in merger costs. In many cases, risk mitigation expenses may be so substantive that the merger loses its attractiveness. Only few companies implement risk management methodology while planning M&A activity. This methodology may anticipate and minimize the consequences of various risk factors that negatively influence integration process. The article suggests an implementation of risk management best practice. This risk management best practice may act as an effective tool of successful realization of synergistic effects in M&A and may be helpful in increasing shareholder value in post-merger period. Risk management is conducted throughout the stages of merger and includes identification, analysis, assessment, management and monitoring of risks. Implementation of risk management at early stages of merger planning significantly decreases uncertainty in relation to achievement of financial and operational goals of newly merged company. The article provides with typical M&A risk matrix that may be adapted for specific M&A project. Risk matrix includes a register of risks sorted by stages of M&A deal, quality assessment of their probability, influence and impact on merger as well as risk mitigation methods.

Risk Management in Cocurricular Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Edward M.

1988-01-01

Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…

RISK MANAGEMENT OF GERMAN FRUIT PRODUCERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annkatrin PORSCH

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Horticultural farms in Germany face substantial business risks. However, fruit farms often struggle to implement appropriate risk management processes, and the risk management literature widely has ignored this farm type. The aim of the study was to improve the assessment of risks by farmers and the choice of suitable risk management instruments. Therefore, a risk management process based on subjective probabilities and suitable for small and medium-sized farms was developed, considering the specific needs of family run businesses. An online survey was conducted to achieve a comprehensive view of the risk perception and risk management practices of German fruit producers. Price and production risks are the most relevant risk categories for fruit farmers. However, among single risk sources, those in the people risk category were seen as the most important. Results show significant interactions among risk categories and a significant correlation between loss experience and the rating of risk categories. The assumption that risk averse farmers generally rate risks higher than risk neutral or risk seeking farmers cannot be confirmed. Diversification seems to be the most important risk management instrument for many fruit producers, especially diversification of marketing channels, farm income, and production activities. Further research should focus on the apparent inconsistency between the satisfaction with instruments reported by farmers and the actual implementation of many of them (e.g., hail insurance and anti-hail net. Furthermore, there is a need for research, to develop decision models considering the interactions of risks and risk management instruments, loss experience and risk seeking attitudes.

Linking infant-directed speech and face preferences to language outcomes in infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Droucker, Danielle; Curtin, Suzanne; Vouloumanos, Athena

2013-04-01

In this study, the authors aimed to examine whether biases for infant-directed (ID) speech and faces differ between infant siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (SIBS-A) and infant siblings of typically developing children (SIBS-TD), and whether speech and face biases predict language outcomes and risk group membership. Thirty-six infants were tested at ages 6, 8, 12, and 18 months. Infants heard 2 ID and 2 adult-directed (AD) speech passages paired with either a checkerboard or a face. The authors assessed expressive language at 12 and 18 months and general functioning at 12 months using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (Mullen, 1995). Both infant groups preferred ID to AD speech and preferred faces to checkerboards. SIBS-TD demonstrated higher expressive language at 18 months than did SIBS-A, a finding that correlated with preferences for ID speech at 12 months. Although both groups looked longer to face stimuli than to the checkerboard, the magnitude of the preference was smaller in SIBS-A and predicted expressive vocabulary at 18 months in this group. Infants' preference for faces contributed to risk-group membership in a logistic regression analysis. Infants at heightened risk of ASD differ from typically developing infants in their preferences for ID speech and faces, which may underlie deficits in later language development and social communication.

Complex antithrombotic therapy: determinants of patient preference and impact on medication adherence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abraham NS

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Neena S Abraham,1,2 Aanand D Naik,3,4 Richard L Street Jr,3–5 Diana L Castillo,3 Anita Deswal,6 Peter A Richardson,3,4 Christine M Hartman,3 George Shelton Jr,3,4 Liana Fraenkel7,8 1Division of Gastroenterology, Mayo Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ, USA; 2Divison of Healthcare Policy and Research, Department of Health Services Research, Rochester, MN, USA; 3Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety at the Michael E DeBakey VA Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA; 4Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 5Department of Communication, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA; 6Cardiology, Michael E DeBakey VAMC, Houston, TX, USA; 7Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, USA; 8Department of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA Purpose: For years, older patients have been prescribed multiple blood-thinning medications (complex antithrombotic therapy [CAT] to decrease their risk of cardiovascular events. These therapies, however, increase risk of adverse bleeding events. We assessed patient-reported trade-offs between cardioprotective benefit, gastrointestinal bleeding risk, and burden of self-management using adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA. As ACA could be a clinically useful tool to obtain patient preferences and guide future patient-centered care, we examined the clinical application of ACA to obtain patient preferences and the impact of ACA on medication adherence.Patients and methods: An electronic ACA survey led 201 respondents through medication risk–benefit trade-offs, revealing patients’ preferences for the CAT risk/benefit profile they valued most. The post-ACA prescription regimen was categorized as concordant or discordant with elicited preferences. Adherence was measured using VA pharmacy refill data to measure persistence of use prior to and 1 year following preference-elicitation. Additionally, we analyzed qualitative interviews of 56 respondents

Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyle Eyvindson

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jönköping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.

PREFERRED WATERFLOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR THE SPRABERRY TREND AREA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David S. Schechter

2004-08-31

The naturally fractured Spraberry Trend Area is one of the largest reservoirs in the domestic U.S. and is the largest reservoir in area extent in the world. Production from Spraberry sands is found over a 2,500 sq. mile area and Spraberry reservoirs can be found in an eight county area in west Texas. Over 150 operators produce 65,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from the Spraberry Trend Area from more than 9,000 production wells. Recovery is poor, on the order of 7-10% due to the profoundly complicated nature of the reservoir, yet billions of barrels of hydrocarbons remain. We estimate over 15% of remaining reserves in domestic Class III reservoirs are in Spraberry Trend Area reservoirs. This tremendous domestic asset is a prime example of an endangered hydrocarbon resource in need of immediate technological advancements before thousands of wells are permanently abandoned. This report describes the final work of the project, ''Preferred Waterflood Management Practices for the Spraberry Trend Area.'' The objective of this project is to significantly increase field-wide production in the Spraberry Trend in a short time frame through the application of preferred practices for managing and optimizing water injection. Our goal is to dispel negative attitudes and lack of confidence in water injection and to document the methodology and results for public dissemination to motivate waterflood expansion in the Spraberry Trend. This objective has been accomplished through research in three areas: (1) detail historical review and extensive reservoir characterization, (2) production data management, and (3) field demonstration. This provides results of the final year of the three-year project for each of the three areas.

Study of International Standards of Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dykan Volodymyr L.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.

Older Adults' Perceptions of and Preferences for a Fall Risk Assessment System: Exploring Stages of Acceptance Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Galambos, Colleen; Rantz, Marilyn; Back, Jessie; Jun, Jung Sim; Skubic, Marjorie; Miller, Steven J

2017-07-01

Aging in place is a preferred and cost-effective living option for older adults. Research indicates that technology can assist with this goal. Information on consumer preferences will help in technology development to assist older adults to age in place. The study aim was to explore the perceptions and preferences of older adults and their family members about a fall risk assessment system. Using a qualitative approach, this study examined the perceptions, attitudes, and preferences of 13 older adults and five family members about their experience living with the fall risk assessment system during five points in time. Themes emerged in relation to preferences and expectations about the technology and how it fits into daily routines. We were able to capture changes that occurred over time for older adult participants. Results indicated that there was acceptance of the technology as participants adapted to it. Two themes were present across the five points in time-safety and usefulness. Five stages of acceptance emerged from the data from preinstallation to 2 years postinstallation. Identified themes, stages of acceptance, and design and development considerations are discussed.

Individual Property Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Finke

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

[The relevance of clinical risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

2011-01-01

Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

Enterprise Content Management Implementation and Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslava Klegová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Enterprise Content Management (ECM solutions are commonly used in many areas such as document management, record management, digital asset management, etc. Key features of ECM systems are capturing, indexing, preserving and retrieving of digital information. The state-of-the- art ECM solution can help revolutionize document management and further automated business processes which can lead to better decisions and competitive advantage. Risk management can reduce project failure and that is why controlling risk in ECM implementation projects is considered to be a major contributor to project success. To manage software risk, the first step is to identify a list of ECM projects’ risks. The present paper provides an overview of ECM implementation risks and contains findings from a small survey on experience of ECM implementation and risk in Czech enterprises. Risk of implementation in the public sector is discussed more deeply with case study examples.

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

Credit derivatives and risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

2007-01-01

The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...

Hanford Tanks Initiative risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaus, P.S.

1997-01-01

This project-specific Risk Management Guide describes the general approach and process being used by the HTI Project to manage risk associated with execution of the HTI mission. It includes the initial identification of risk and the quantification of its likelihood and severity of its consequences. It further addresses the formulation of risk mitigation plans, periodic statusing of the Risk Management List, and risk closure

Enterprise risk management and disclosure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Farcane

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Our paper deals with aspects regarding risk and uncertainty. Many risk management methods are today implemented in organizations. This perspective reveals that managers are linked in different forms to the activities they are managing, depending on the conditions and levels of uncertainty they are in. Actually, these multiple levels of uncertainty lead to the conclusion that any situation in an organizational system can be classified in two different models of organizational phenomena: the organizational phenomena that are putting managers and stakeholders in conditions of risk and the organizational phenomena that are putting them in condition of uncertainty. Using content analyze in this paper we survey the disclosure level of risk management information in the annual report of top Romanian listed companies.

At your own risk. An inquiry about risk management in the ESI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The UNIPEDE survey on Risk Management within the Electricity Supply Industry has provided a picture of the risks facing the Industry at present and an insight into the management of tomorrow's risks. The survey, in which 81 companies (85 respondents) from 31 countries took part shows that: nearly all types of risk identified in the questionnaire are perceived to be growing : the Risk Management role has become more centralized over the past three years: change will slow in the coming three ; the amount of top level attention given to Risk Management is increasing. However only 37 % of respondent companies have Risk Management as a regular top level management item ; environment-related risks and the safety of both employees and the public are perceived as the most critical risks facing the Industry. Over 80 % of surveyed companies consider that both are of increasing concern ; almost 90 % of respondents agreed that risk management processes should be implemented for both pure and speculative risks. Those who disagreed maintained that Risk Management should be 'realistic not theoretical' ; respondents from the US gave markedly different answers to those from the rest of the world. Risk Management in the US receives top level attention, with numerous separated risk management departments handling risk strategy

Managing information technology security risk

Science.gov (United States)

Gilliam, David

2003-01-01

Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.

The Supply Chain Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Skitsko Volodymyr I.; Voynikov Mykola Yu.

2018-01-01

The article considers current approaches of risk-management in supply chains, the main steps of the risk management process are analyzed and detailed both for a separate enterprise – participant of supply chain, for the supply chain in general, and for the Beer game, based on the international risk management standards. The article provides a way to assess the risks of the «producer» in the Beer game according to the three strategies of its behavior, which presumably can correspond to differe...

Tank waste remediation system risk management list

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collard, L.B.

1995-01-01

The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

Risk management versus incentives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, E.; Lovas, K.; Osmundsen, P.

2006-01-01

Portfolio theory indicates that risk management should take place at the group level. Hedging at the project level or in the individual business areas may lead to suboptimal results. However, the efficiency of a profit centre depends on its management's being able to influence factors that are crucial to the unit's financial results. Price hedging could be one such factor. In the wider perspective, this constitutes part of the balancing between centralisation and decentralisation. This article covers important elements of risk management and incentive design. It goes on to discuss the balancing of overall risk management at the group level and incentive design in profit centres and corporate units. Throughout the article, the oil industry serves as a case. (author)

Risk Management Practices by Barbadian Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony Wood

2013-07-01

The main findings of the paper are: risk managers perceive risk management as critical to their banks’ performance; the types of risks causing the greatest exposures are credit risk, operational risk, country/sovereign risk, interest rate risk and market risk; there was a high level of success with current risk management practices and these practices have evolved over time in line with the changing economic environment and regulatory updates. Overall, the findings suggest strongly that in light of the current depressed economic climate, banks operating in Barbados are indeed risk-focused or might we say “risk intelligent”.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan Rebecca

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD. In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Methods Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Results Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour. Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk

INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena RUSE

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (unchance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities internal audit department aims to improve performance management, enterprise performance and thus improve the internal control system. This paper aims to demonstrate, among other things, that any event that may result in failure is unquestionably classified as risk.

Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

OpenAIRE

Fournier Susan; Srinivasan Shuba

2018-01-01

In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...

The role of stakeholder involvement in risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.

2004-01-01

Inviting stakeholders to be part of the decision making process in risk analysis and management improves the likelihood that the resulting decision will be accepted. Unfortunately, early public involvement may compromise, however, the objective of efficient and effective risk reduction or violate the principle of fairness. Another problem is that the public consists of many groups with different value structures and preferences. Without a systematic procedure to reach consensus on values and preferences, the public's position often appears as unclear. Participatory processes are thus needed that combine technical expertise, rational decision making, and public values and preferences. The recent report by the National Academy of Sciences encourages risk professionals to foster citizen participation and public involvement in risk management. The report emphasizes the need for a combination of assessment and dialogue which the authors have framed the 'analytic-deliberative' approach. The popularity associated with the concepts of two-way-communication, trust-building, and citizen participation, however, obscures the challenge of how to put these noble goals into practice and how to ensure that risk management reflects competence, efficiency, and fair burden sharing. This paper discusses the potential and requirements for stakeholder participation in the field of risk management and communication. (orig.)

Methods of Financial Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korzh Natalia

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

Risk Management and Risk Psychology in Romanian Sme’s

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Dănciulescu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Risk is one of the biggest and most fascinating challenges of all times for humanity, because of its presence in all fields. Risk management as a component of modern management, has become a main concern for the modern world and one of the “key mechanisms” of economic development, a complex processn that includes a series of activities meant to alleviate the impact of risk over business and planed or foreseen results. This paper wants to bring to attention the importance of risks and their management in today’s economic crisis. The sector presented is the IT& C, especially software, because Romania had a growth in this area for a few years but beginning the crisis this segment in economy had known a serious decrease. This paper tries to connect risk management and risk psychology to Romanian economy, culture and mentality. The paper presents in short some of risk management characteristics, definitions and few opinions; why in Romania this subject is not treated with the appropriate attention. The paper at hand focuses on the psychology of risk and how it affects the life of individuals and the existence of companies, the importance it should have on day to day basis, especially in Romania

MANAGEMENT OF SECURITY FOR BANK LOANS ON THE BASIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktoriia Kovalenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article aims to study methods and tools for risk management to ensure bank loans.  Proved that the effectiveness of risk management to ensure bank loans depends on consistency,  adequacy methods of evaluation, quality monitoring and timely response system of the banks and the  regulator. The article is to develop recommendations to improve the effectiveness of risk management providing bank loans considering the risks inherent in the process support mortgage portfolio of banks in the  face of considerable uncertainty functioning banks. It is proved that the risk provision of bank loans in the loan management should be considered  through risk characteristics that form the aggregate credit risk. Substantiated that risk management software meets the classic risk management, which identifies  four main stages: identification; risk assessment software; control risk; minimizing risk. Keywords: credit risk provision, loan, risk management, reserves.JEL: G 28

Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fournier Susan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

Risk assessment and management logistics chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Vikulov

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria POPESCU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

The benefits, risks and costs of privacy: patient preferences and willingness to pay.

Science.gov (United States)

Trachtenbarg, David E; Asche, Carl; Ramsahai, Shweta; Duling, Joy; Ren, Jinma

2017-05-01

Multiple surveys show that patients want medical privacy; however, there are costs to maintaining privacy. There are also risks if information is not shared. A review of previous surveys found that most surveys asked questions about patient's privacy concerns and willingness to share their medical information. We found only one study that asked about sharing medical information for better care and no survey that asked patients about the risk, cost or comparison between medical privacy and privacy in other areas. To fill this gap, we designed a survey to: (1) compare medical privacy preferences to privacy preferences in other areas; (2) measure willingness to pay the cost of additional privacy measures; and (3) measure willingness to accept the risks of not sharing information. A total of 834 patients attending physician offices at 14 sites completed all or part of an anonymous questionnaire. Over 95% of patients were willing to share all their medical information with their treating physicians. There was no difference in willingness to share between primary care and specialty sites including psychiatry and an HIV clinic. In our survey, there was no difference in sharing preference between standard medical information and information with additional legal protections including genetic testing, drug/alcohol treatment and HIV results. Medical privacy was ranked lower than sharing social security and credit card numbers, but was deemed more private than other information including tax returns and handgun purchases. There was no statistical difference for any questions by site except for HIV/AIDS clinic patients ranking privacy of the medical record more important than reducing high medical costs and risk of medical errors (p risks to keep medical information hidden. Patients were very willing to share medical information with their providers. They were able to see the importance of sharing medical information to provide the best possible care. They were unwilling to

Records management and risk management at Kenya Commercial Bank Limited, Nairobi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cleophas Ambira

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Background: This paper reported empirical research findings of an MPhil in Information Sciences (Records and Archives Management study conducted at Moi University in Eldoret, Kenya between September 2007 and July 2009.Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate records management and risk management at Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB Ltd, in the Nairobi area and propose recommendations to enhance the functions of records and risk management at KCB. The specific objectives of the study were to, (1 establish the nature and type of risks to which KCB is exposed, (2 conduct business process analysis and identify the records generated by KCB, (3 establish the extent to which records management is emphasised within KCB as a tool to managing risk, (4 identify which vital records of KCB need protection because of their nature and value to the bank and (5 make recommendations to enhance current records management practices to support the function of risk management in KCB.Method: The study was qualitative. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The theoretical framework of the study involved triangulation of the records continuum model by Frank Upward (1980 and the integrated risk management model by the Government of Canada (2000.Results: The key findings of the study were, (1 KCB is exposed to a wide range of risks by virtue of its business, (2 KCB generates a lot of records in the course of its business activities and (3 there are inadequate records management practices and systems, the lack of which undermines the risk management function.Conclusion: The findings of this study have revealed the need to strengthen records management as a critical success factor in risk mitigation within KCB and, by extension, the Kenyan banking industry. A records management model was proposed to guide the management of records within an enterprise-wide risk management framework in the bank.

Teaching Disaster Risk Management: Lessons from the Rotman School of Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANDRÁS TILCSIK

Full Text Available This article describes how disaster risk management topics are taught at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto and thus highlights opportunities for developing similar course modules on disaster risk management at other institutions. An undergraduate and MBA elective course, titled Catastrophic Failure in Organizations, contains four modules that are directly relevant to disaster risk management. The first module focuses on the need to move from risk indifference to risk sensitivity. The second module considers the importance of business continuity and crisis management plans and explores their common shortcomings. The third module uses a case study to examine the topic of prospective risk management. The fourth module focuses on the vulnerability of supply chains and other complex systems to disaster risk. The article describes the details of implementing these modules and discusses opportunities for further integration of disaster risk management topics in other parts of the curriculum.

International and Russian practice of banking risk-management. Mortgage risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Nikolaeva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the work is to compare Russian norms and standards of risk management of mortgage lending with international standards of risk management based on the documents of the Basel Committee. The article also aims to analyze new banking tools of risk management of mortgage lending, that arise in connection with the application of international norms and standards of risk management.Materials and Methods: The main documents considered in the article are the agreements on capital, issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: Basel-I (1988, Basel-II (2004 and Basel-III (2010, as well as instructions and standing orders issued by the Central Bank of Russia, including: Instruction № 139-I "Ob obiazatel'nykh normativakh bankov", instruction № 1 "O poriadke regulirovaniia deiatel'nosti kommercheskikh bankov", the standing order number 215-P "O metodike opredeleniia sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii", the standing order № 395-P "O metodike opredeleniia velichiny sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii («BAZEL III»" and others. On the basis of these documents the work examines and summarizes the main methods of risk management of mortgage lending, such as: comparison and analysis of risk management techniques, study of the basic documents regulating risk management in banks and generalization of risk management methods in the segment of mortgage lending.Results: The article analyzes the legal and methodological basis of risk management and provides practical methods that can be used in practice for managerial decisions in a constantly changing external economic environment. It also analyses international and native risk management. Russian standards of risk-management are compared with international. The work conducts a critical review of the effects of introduction of international standards in Russia. Special attention is paid to the practice of mortgage risk-management

Risk Management and Simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovmand, David

2014-01-01

Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....

Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halverson, T.G.

1998-01-01

The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context

Measuring customer preferences in the German statutory health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Pendzialek, Jonas B; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

2017-09-01

This paper investigates consumer preferences in the German statutory health insurance market. It further aims to test whether preferences differ by age and health status. Evidence is provided by a discrete choice experiment conducted in 2014 using the six most important attributes in sickness fund competition and ten random generated choice sets per participant. Price is found to be the most important attribute followed by additional benefits, managed care programmes, and distance to nearest branch. Other positive attributes of sickness funds are found to balance out a higher price, which would allow a sickness fund to position itself as high quality. However, significant differences in preferences were found between age and health status group. In particular, compromised health is associated with higher preference for illness-related additional benefits and less distance to the lowest branch, but lower preference for a lower price. Based on these differences, a distinct sickness fund offer could be constructed that would allow passive risk selection.

Risk, Place and Oil and Gas Policy Preferences among Coloradoans

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Adam

Unconventional oil and gas extraction, primarily via hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"), has changed the energy landscape in the United States. The policy regime currently governing fracking is a complex patchwork in which state regulators have the primary authority. Social scientists have thoroughly documented general beliefs and risk perceptions related to fracking there is a lack of policy-related research. This dissertation examined public policy preferences for fracking regulation using a survey data from a statewide sample of Coloradoans. Theoretically, it was hypothesized that policy support hinged upon factors like risk perceptions, benefit perceptions, place attachment, community economic identity and political ideology. Overall, risk perceptions and political ideology emerged as relatively consistent and powerful predictors of support for unconventional oil and gas regulatory policy. On the other hand, several possible predictors had little to no role. Benefit perceptions had little effect on any policy dependent variable. Further, community economic identity and place attachment played very little role. I discuss policy implications and directions for future research.

A community-engaged approach to quantifying caregiver preferences for the benefits and risks of emerging therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Science.gov (United States)

Peay, Holly L; Hollin, Ilene; Fischer, Ryan; Bridges, John F P

2014-05-01

There is growing agreement that regulators performing benefit-risk evaluations should take patients' and caregivers' preferences into consideration. The Patient-Focused Drug Development Initiative at the US Food and Drug Administration offers patients and caregivers an enhanced opportunity to contribute to regulatory processes by offering direct testimonials. This process may be advanced by providing scientific evidence regarding treatment preferences through engagement of a broad community of patients and caregivers. In this article, we demonstrate a community-engaged approach to measure caregiver preferences for potential benefits and risks of emerging therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). An advocacy oversight team led the community-engaged study. Caregivers' treatment preferences were measured by using best-worst scaling (BWS). Six relevant and understandable attributes describing potential benefits and risks of emerging DMD therapies were identified through engagement with advocates (n = 5), clinicians (n = 9), drug developers from pharmaceutical companies and academic centers (n = 11), and other stakeholders (n = 5). The attributes, each defined across 3 levels, included muscle function, life span, knowledge about the drug, nausea, risk of bleeds, and risk of arrhythmia. Cognitive interviewing with caregivers (n = 7) was used to refine terminology and assess acceptability of the BWS instrument. The study was implemented through an online survey of DMD caregivers, who were recruited in the United States through an advocacy group and snowball sampling. Caregivers were presented with 18 treatment profiles, identified via a main-effect orthogonal experimental design, in which the dependent variable was the respondents' judgment as to the best and worst feature in each profile. Preference weights were estimated by calculating the relative number of times a feature was chosen as best and as worst, which were then used to estimate relative attribute

Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

2014-01-01

The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

Systematic implementation of clinical risk management in a large university hospital: the impact of risk managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sendlhofer, Gerald; Brunner, Gernot; Tax, Christa; Falzberger, Gebhard; Smolle, Josef; Leitgeb, Karina; Kober, Brigitte; Kamolz, Lars Peter

2015-01-01

For health care systems in recent years, patient safety has increasingly become a priority issue. National and international strategies have been considered to attempt to overcome the most prominent hazards while patients are receiving health care. Thereby, clinical risk management (CRM) plays a dominant role in enabling the identification, analysis, and management of potential risks. CRM implementation into routine procedures within complex hospital organizations is challenging, as in the past, organizational change strategies using a top-down approach have often failed. Therefore, one of our main objectives was to educate a certain number of risk managers in facilitating CRM using a bottom-up approach. To achieve our primary purpose, five project strands were developed, and consequently followed, introducing CRM: corporate governance, risk management (RM) training, CRM process, information, and involvement. The core part of the CRM process involved the education of risk managers within each organizational unit. To account for the size of the existing organization, we assumed that a minimum of 1 % of the workforce had to be trained in RM to disseminate the continuous improvement of quality and safety. Following a roll-out plan, CRM was introduced in each unit and potential risks were identified. Alongside the changes in the corporate governance, a hospital-wide CRM process was introduced resulting in 158 trained risk managers correlating to 2.0 % of the total workforce. Currently, risk managers are present in every unit and have identified 360 operational risks. Among those, 176 risks were scored as strategic and clustered together into top risks. Effective meeting structures and opportunities to share information and knowledge were introduced. Thus far, 31 units have been externally audited in CRM. The CRM approach is unique with respect to its dimension; members of all health care professions were trained to be able to identify potential risks. A network of risk

Financial Management and Relationship Skills Education: Gauging Consumer Interest and Delivery Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Futris, Ted G.; Nielsen, Robert B.; Barton, Allen W.

2011-01-01

The study reported here explored level of interest and preferred delivery method of Extension programming related to financial management and relationship skills education. These two subjects comprise areas of Extension that often receive less recognition but appear as pertinent issues in the lives of many individuals. Using a diverse sample of…

Guidelines on the scope, content, and use of comprehensive risk assessment in the management of high-level nuclear waste transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golding, D.; White, A.

1990-12-01

This report discusses the scope of risk assessment strategies in the management of the transport of high-level radioactive wastes. In spite of the shortcomings of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA), the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended this as the preferred methodology to assess the risks of high level nuclear waste (HLNW) transportation. A PRA also will need to heed the lessons learned from the development and application of PRA elsewhere, such as in the nuclear power industry. A set of guidelines will aid this endeavor by outlining the appropriate scope, content, and use of a risk assessment which is more responsive to the uncertainties, human-technical interactions, social forces, and iterative relationship with risk management strategies, than traditional PRAS. This more expansive definition, which encompasses but is not totally reliant on rigorous data requirements and quantitative probability estimates, we term Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA) Guidelines will be developed in three areas: the limitations of existing methodologies and suggested modifications; CRA as part of a flexible, effective, adaptive risk management system for HLNW transportation; and, the use of CRA in risk communication

Risk Management in Insurance Companies

OpenAIRE

Yang, Xufeng

2006-01-01

Insurance is the uncertain business in uncertain society. Today, insures face more complex and difficult risks. Efficient risk management mechanisms are essential for the insurers. The paper is set out initially to explore UK insurance companies risk management and risk disclosure by examining companies annual report after all the listed insurance companies are required to disclose risk information in their annual report, which seeks to reflect the recent development in UK insurance companies...

Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

Saikami, D

1997-10-01

Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits in integrated health systems is explained. A managed care organization should assume financial risk for pharmacy benefits only if it can manage the risk. Horizontally integrated organizations often do not have much control over the management of drug utilization and costs. Vertically integrated organizations have the greatest ability to manage pharmacy financial risk; virtual integration may also be compatible. Contracts can be established in which the provider is incentivized or placed at partial or full risk. The main concerns that health plans have with respect to pharmacy capitation are formulary management and the question of who should receive rebates from manufacturers. The components needed to managed pharmacy financial risk depend on the type of contract negotiated. Health-system pharmacists are uniquely positioned to take advantage of opportunities opening up through pharmacy risk contracting. Functions most organizations must provide when assuming pharmacy financial risk can be divided into internal and external categories. Internally performed functions include formulary management, clinical pharmacy services and utilization management, and utilization reports for physicians. Functions that can be outsourced include claims processing and administration, provider- and customer support services, and rebates. Organizations that integrate the pharmacy benefit across the health care continuum will be more effective in controlling costs and improving outcomes than organizations that handle this benefit as separate from others. Patient care should not focus on payment mechanisms and unit costs but on developing superior processes and systems that improve health care.

Factors influencing women's preferences for subsequent management in the event of incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for miscarriage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hentzen, Judith E. K. R.; Verschoor, Marianne A.; Lemmers, Marike; Ankum, Willem M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; van Wely, Madelon

2017-01-01

STUDY QUESTION: What affects women's treatment preferences in the management of an incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for a first-trimester miscarriage? SUMMARY ANSWER: Women's treatment preferences in the management of an incomplete evacuation of the uterus after

Gender, Race, and Risk: Intersectional Risk Management in the Sale of Sex Online.

Science.gov (United States)

Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

2016-09-01

Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold.

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JELER (POPA IOANA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to counter risks occurrence. In this article we present also means managing risk and why needs to be implemented at institutional level a risk management. The paper concludes by highlight the role of efficient risk management in the company’s management and company's activities.

Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Dillaman, Gary

2012-01-01

The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

The Strategic-Renovation Banks’ Risks Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeremeychuk Raisa A.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at developing approaches to implementation of the strategic-renovation risk management. Essence of risk theories was researched, the concept of «risk» in the bank’s management system were analyzed. On the basis of a theoretical generalization of scientific literature and the carried out analysis of existing risk management strategies to ensure the security of banking business, the strategy of renovation management has been selected. Because bank risks are part of the economic risk system, they are complex in their nature. However, given the importance of bank risks, the interpretation of their essence is still a debating matter. In a certain number of cases, their essence is replaced by the cause of occurrence, that is, all the different circumstances, factors that lead to the losses. So today, banks are considering risks, in particular, not only as a source of possible losses, but also as an opportunity to generate additional profits. An algorithm for taking a strategic-renovation decision on the banks’ risks management system has been proposed.

Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Staveren, Martinus Theodorus

2009-01-01

This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is

An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje

2016-01-01

There is increasing interest for agencies and industries to develop risk management processes for a wide variety of applications. Traditional risk management processes are motivated by controlling risk and avoiding losses. In contrast, other organizational processes focus on managing performance and value generation. In this paper we argue that risk management also adds an important contribution to these processes. However, this requires “proper” risk management extending beyond narrow safety oriented perspectives built on quantitative risk analysis and tolerability/acceptance criteria. There is need for a broad risk-performance framework with uncertainty being a main component of risk, and where knowledge and surprises are adequately reflected. In the paper we present and discuss such a framework. The framework is developed on the basis of an analysis of combinations of different risk management and performance management practices/policies. We show how the risk and performance management processes can be improved by proper risk conceptualization and a holistic thinking on how to develop and use goals in the organization, how to balance different concerns, and consider the need for agility – “sensitivity to operations”, as well as how to give weight to vulnerabilities, resilience, and antifragility. - Highlights: • We relate key performance management and risk management principles. • We propose an enhanced framework to unify thinking of performance and risk. • We apply the framework to a public-private partnership case study.

Tank waste remediation system programmatic risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seaver, D.A.

1995-01-01

This risk management plan defines the approach to be taken to managing risks in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program. It defines the actions to be taken at the overall program level, and the risk management requirements for lower-level projects and other activities. The primary focus of this plan is on ''programmatic'' risks, i.e., risks with respect to the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the program. The plan defines an approach providing managers with the flexibility to manage risks according to their specific needs, yet creates. The consistency needed for effectiveness across the program. The basic risk management approach uses a risk management list for the program, each project, and additional lower-level activities. The risk management list will be regularly reviewed and updated by appropriate level of management. Each list defines key risks, their likelihood and consequences, risk management actions to be taken, responsible individuals, and other management information

Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, James C.

2013-01-01

Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

Information systems for risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

1997-01-01

Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of the resulting measures of risk and the burden of computing them. Technical progress will make this tradeoff more favorable over time...

How to manage project opportunity and risk why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management

CERN Document Server

Ward, Stephen

2011-01-01

Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enl

What women want. Women's preferences for the management of low-grade abnormal cervical screening tests: a systematic review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Maria Eiholm; Lynge, E; Rebolj, M

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Frederiksen M, Lynge E, Rebolj M. What women want. Women's preferences for the management of low-grade abnormal cervical screening tests: a systematic review. BJOG 2011; DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2011.03130.x. Background If human papillomavirus (HPV) testing will replace...... cytology in primary cervical screening, the frequency of low-grade abnormal screening tests will double. Several available alternatives for the follow-up of low-grade abnormal screening tests have similar outcomes. In this situation, women's preferences have been proposed as a guide for management....... Selection criteria Studies asking women to state a preference between active follow-up and observation for the management of low-grade abnormalities on screening cytology or HPV tests. Data collection and analysis Information on study design, participants and outcomes was retrieved using a prespecified form...

Enterprise risk management: A process for enhanced management and improved performance

OpenAIRE

Gates , Stephen; Nicolas , Jean-Louis; Walker , Paul L.

2012-01-01

Some company boards of directors and management teams are still reluctant to embrace enterprise risk management (ERM) because of the uncertainty regarding its value to the bottom line. A survey of audit and risk management executives suggests that the use of ERM leads to increased management consensus, better-informed decisions, enhanced communication of risk taking, and greater management accountability.

Desires and management preferences of stakeholders regarding feral cats in the Hawaiian islands.

Science.gov (United States)

Lohr, Cheryl A; Lepczyk, Christopher A

2014-04-01

Feral cats are abundant in many parts of the world and a source of conservation conflict. Our goal was to clarify the beliefs and desires held by stakeholders regarding feral cat abundance and management. We measured people's desired abundance of feral cats in the Hawaiian Islands and identified an order of preference for 7 feral cat management techniques. In 2011 we disseminated a survey to 5407 Hawaii residents. Approximately 46% of preidentified stakeholders and 20% of random residents responded to the survey (1510 surveys returned). Results from the potential for conflict index revealed a high level of consensus (86.9% of respondents) that feral cat abundance should be decreased. The 3 most common explanatory variables for respondents' stated desires were enjoyment from seeing feral cats (84%), intrinsic value of feral cats (12%), and threat to native fauna (73%). The frequency with which respondents saw cats and change in the perceived abundance of cats also affected respondent's desired abundance of cats; 41.3% of respondents stated that they saw feral cats daily and 44.7% stated that the cat population had increased in recent years. Other potential environmental impacts of feral cats had little affect on desired abundance. The majority of respondents (78%) supported removing feral cats from the natural environment permanently. Consensus convergence models with data from 1388 respondents who completed the relevant questions showed live capture and lethal injection was the most preferred technique and trap-neuter-release was the least preferred technique for managing feral cats. However, the acceptability of each technique varied among stakeholders. Our results suggest that the majority of Hawaii's residents would like to see effective management that reduces the abundance of feral or free-roaming cats. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Does radiation risk exist?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Passchier, W.

1996-01-01

Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

Risk Management Standards: Towards a contemporary, organisation-wide management approach

OpenAIRE

Koutsoukis, Nikitas-Spiros

2010-01-01

Risk management has been progressively evolving into a systemic approach for organisational decision making in today’s dynamic economic environment of the global era. In this context, risk management is reaching beyond its traditional finance and insurance application context and is entering the sphere of generic, organisation-wide management approaches. In support of this argument we consider four generic risk management standards issued at the institutional, national or international level...

Risk Preferences and Demand for Insurance in Peru: A Field Experiment

OpenAIRE

Francisco Galarza; Michael Carter

2011-01-01

"This paper reports the results of behavioral economic experiments conducted in Peru to examine the relationship amongst risk preferences, loan take-up, and insurance purchase decisions. This area-based yield insurance can help reduce people's vulnerability to large scale covariate shocks, and can also lower the loan default probability under extreme negative covariate shocks. In a context of collateralized formal credit markets, we provide suggestive evidence that insurance may help reduce t...

Patient Preferences in Regulatory Benefit-Risk Assessments: A US Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, F Reed; Zhou, Mo

Demands for greater transparency in US regulatory assessments of benefits and risks, together with growing interest in engaging patients in Food and Drug Administration regulatory decision making, have resulted in several recent regulatory developments. Although Food and Drug Administration's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) and Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) have established patient-engagement initiatives, CDRH has proposed guidelines for considering quantitative data on patients' benefit-risk perspectives, while CDER has focused on a more qualitative approach. We summarize two significant studies that were developed in collaboration and consultation with CDER and CDRH. CDER encouraged a patient advocacy group to propose draft guidance on engaging patient and caregiver stakeholders in regulatory decision making for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. CDRH sponsored a discrete-choice experiment case study to quantify obese respondents' perspectives on "meaningful benefits." CDRH and CDER issued draft guidance in May and June 2015, respectively, on including patient-preference data in regulatory submissions. Both organizations face challenges. CDER is working on integrating qualitative data into existing evidence-based review processes and is exploring options for therapeutic areas not included on a priority list. CDRH has adopted an approach that requires patient-preference data to satisfy standards of valid scientific evidence. Although that strategy could facilitate integrating patient perspectives directly with clinical data on benefits and harms, generating such data requires building capacity. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of computerized risk management tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kil Yoo Kim; Mee Jung Hwang; Seung Cheol Jang; Sang Hoon Han; Tae Woon Kim

1997-01-01

The author describes the kinds of efforts for the development of computerized risk management tool; (1) development of a risk monitor, Risk Monster, (2) improvement of McFarm (Missing Cutsets Finding Algorithm for Risk Monitor) and finally (3) development of reliability database management system, KwDBMan. Risk Monster supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Improved McFarm significantly improved calculation speed of Risk Monster for the cases of supporting system OOS (Out Of Service). KwDBMan manages event data, generic data and CCF (Common Cause Failure) data to support Risk Monster as well as PSA tool, KIRAP (KAERI Integrated Reliability Analysis Package)

Understanding and managing risk attitude

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hillson, David; Murray-Webster, Ruth

2007-01-01

... This book highlights how risk attitude factors influence the human psyche, and carefully explains the impacts. Organisations seeking to dramatically improve the effectiveness of their risk management process will want to use this book's insights. Craig Peterson, President, PMI Risk Management SIG This book has prompted me to think more deeply as a change d...

Risk Management and Value Creation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul; Roggi, Oliviero

Corporate failures, periodic recessions, regional debt crises and volatile financial markets have intensified the focus on risk management as the means to deal with turbulent conditions. The ability to respond effectively to abrupt environmental impacts is considered an important source...... of competitive advantage. Yet, surprisingly little research has analyzed whether the presumed advantages of effective risk management are associated with superior outcomes. Here we present a comprehensive study of risk management effectiveness and the relationship to corporate performance based on more than 33......,500 observations in 3,400 firms over the turbulent 20-year period 1991-2010. Determining effective risk management as the ability to reduce earnings and cash flow volatility, we find that both have significant positive relationships to lagged performance measures after controlling for industry effects, company...

Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almaula, S.C. [Woodward-Clyde International, Oakland, CA (United States)

1996-12-31

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

The Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders Intervention: Falls Risk Factor Assessment and Management, Patient Engagement, and Nurse Co-management.

Science.gov (United States)

Reuben, David B; Gazarian, Priscilla; Alexander, Neil; Araujo, Katy; Baker, Dorothy; Bean, Jonathan F; Boult, Chad; Charpentier, Peter; Duncan, Pamela; Latham, Nancy; Leipzig, Rosanne M; Quintiliani, Lisa M; Storer, Thomas; McMahon, Siobhan

2017-12-01

In response to the epidemic of falls and serious falls-related injuries in older persons, in 2014, the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) and the National Institute on Aging funded a pragmatic trial, Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) to compare the effects of a multifactorial intervention with those of an enhanced usual care intervention. The STRIDE multifactorial intervention consists of five major components that registered nurses deliver in the role of falls care managers, co-managing fall risk in partnership with patients and their primary care providers (PCPs). The components include a standardized assessment of eight modifiable risk factors (medications; postural hypotension; feet and footwear; vision; vitamin D; osteoporosis; home safety; strength, gait, and balance impairment) and the use of protocols and algorithms to generate recommended management of risk factors; explanation of assessment results to the patient (and caregiver when appropriate) using basic motivational interviewing techniques to elicit patient priorities, preferences, and readiness to participate in treatments; co-creation of individualized falls care plans that patients' PCPs review, modify, and approve; implementation of the falls care plan; and ongoing monitoring of response, regularly scheduled re-assessments of fall risk, and revisions of the falls care plan. Custom-designed falls care management software facilitates risk factor assessment, the identification of recommended interventions, clinic note generation, and longitudinal care management. The trial testing the effectiveness of the STRIDE intervention is in progress, with results expected in late 2019. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Business resilience: Reframing healthcare risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Simeone, Cynthia L

2015-09-01

The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions. © 2015 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

OpenAIRE

Michel Rochette

2002-01-01

In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgeta Soava

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

Trends in risk management in nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Inn Seock

1996-01-01

Safety management may be classified into three dimensions: risk management, accident management, and emergency management. This paper addresses the recent trends of safety management in nuclear industry, focussing on risk management and accident management

TRManager – Technical Risk Manager

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A. Gregory

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents research into the development of a new information management technique called Technical Risk Manager. Project management involves the use of processes and information management techniques to aid decision making in the pursuit of project success. Project success may be achieved by meeting time, cost or performance criteria. Current project management practices focus on achieving time and cost project success criteria by using three information management techniques developed in the 1950s: Gantt, PERT and Critical Path Method. Technical Risk Manager has been developed to provide an information management technique that may be used to aid project management decision making in the pursuit of achieving the performance project success criteria.

Integrated supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

2007-01-01

Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

Effects of voluntary alcohol intake on risk preference and behavioral flexibility during rat adolescence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew S McMurray

Full Text Available Alcohol use is common in adolescence, with a large portion of intake occurring during episodes of binging. This pattern of alcohol consumption coincides with a critical period for neurocognitive development and may impact decision-making and reward processing. Prior studies have demonstrated alterations in adult decision-making following adolescent usage, but it remains to be seen if these alterations exist in adolescence, or are latent until adulthood. Here, using a translational model of voluntary binge alcohol consumption in adolescents, we assess the impact of alcohol intake on risk preference and behavioral flexibility during adolescence. During adolescence (postnatal day 30-50, rats were given 1-hour access to either a 10% alcohol gelatin mixture (EtOH or a calorie equivalent gelatin (Control at the onset of the dark cycle. EtOH consuming rats were classified as either High or Low consumers based on intake levels. Adolescent rats underwent behavioral testing once a day, with one group performing a risk preference task, and a second group performing a reversal-learning task during the 20-day period of gelatin access. EtOH-High rats showed increases in risk preference compared to Control rats, but not EtOH-Low animals. However, adolescent rats did a poor job of matching their behavior to optimize outcomes, suggesting that adolescents may adopt a response bias. In addition, adolescent ethanol exposure did not affect the animals' ability to flexibly adapt behavior to changing reward contingencies during reversal learning. These data support the view that adolescent alcohol consumption can have short-term detrimental effects on risk-taking when examined during adolescence, which does not seem to be attributable to an inability to flexibly encode reward contingencies on behavioral responses.

[Does clinical risk management require a structured conflict management?].

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Stefan

2015-01-01

A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.

Risk management as a social defence against anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk J. Geldenhuys

2012-03-01

Research purpose: The aim of the study is to describe how risk management unconsciously influences behaviour when doing business in an African country. Motivation for the study: Operational risk management is a rational management imperative. However, this does not take cognisance of the unconscious role of risk management. A systems-psychodynamic perspective might be particularly relevant if the anxiety implied in risk management is not appropriately contained. Awareness of these dynamics may provide an opportunity for addressing them and allow for a more holistic way of managing risk. Research design, approach and method: The researchers conducted the study as a qualitative case study in an African country. They used purposive sampling and analysed the data using qualitative content analysis. Main findings: Viewing risk management from a systems-psychodynamic perspective allowed the researchers to identify the influence of risk management on the behaviour of people. The emerging hypothesis was that, if businesses do not address the anxiety underlying risk management, managing risk becomes a social defence against the anxiety. Practical/managerial implications: Awareness of the anxiety involved in risk management may assist businesses to manage risk in a more realistic way, making provision for, and even capitalising on, the human element. Contributions/value-add: The article provides a systems-psychodynamic, and hence a more complete, perspective of operational risk management when doing business in an African country.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

2016-01-01

The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

Strategies for successful software development risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marija Boban

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, software is becoming a major part of enterprise business. Software development is activity connected with advanced technology and high level of knowledge. Risks on software development projects must be successfully mitigated to produce successful software systems. Lack of a defined approach to risk management is one of the common causes for project failures. To improve project chances for success, this work investigates common risk impact areas to perceive a foundation that can be used to define a common approach to software risk management. Based on typical risk impact areas on software development projects, we propose three risk management strategies suitable for a broad area of enterprises and software development projects with different amounts of connected risks. Proposed strategies define activities that should be performed for successful risk management, the one that will enable software development projects to perceive risks as soon as possible and to solve problems connected with risk materialization. We also propose a risk-based approach to software development planning and risk management as attempts to address and retire the highest impact risks as early as possible in the development process. Proposed strategies should improve risk management on software development projects and help create a successful software solution.

Value-oriented risk management of insurance companies

CERN Document Server

Kriele, Marcus

2014-01-01

Value- and risk-oriented management is a holistic method of managing businesses. In this book both actuarial methods and methods pertaining to classical internal control and classical risk management are used. Therefore the approach taken is necessarily interdisciplinary. Indeed, there is a new dynamically developing field for actuaries as a result of the emphasis now on the measurement of risk. This book provides the required basic knowledge for this subject from an actuarial perspective. It enables the reader to implement in practice a risk management system that is based on quantitative methods. With this book, the reader will additionally be able to critically appraise the applicability and the limits of the methods used in modern risk management. Value- Oriented Risk Management of Insurance Companies focuses on risk capital, capital allocation, performance measurement and value-oriented management. It also makes a connection to regulatory developments (for example, Solvency II). The reader should have...

Integrated supply chain risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaan Bredell

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

Corporate risk management : an overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterhof, Casper M.

2001-01-01

Corporate risk management and hedging are important activities within financial as well as non-financial corporations. Under the assumptions of Modigliani and Miller [1958], corporate risk management is a redundant activity. However, the existence of market imperfections can explain the corporate

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Risk management executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This document is the first in a four volume series that comprise the risk management study for the retired, surplus facilities. Volume 2 is the risk evaluation work procedure; volume 3 provides the results for the risk evaluation; and volume 4 is the risk-reduction cost comparison

Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

2013-04-01

Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, P A; Geraci, C L; Hodson, L L; Zumwalde, R D; Kuempel, E D; Murashov, V; Martinez, K F; Heidel, D S

2013-01-01

Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

Risk management on nuclear power plant. Application of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo

2003-01-01

In U.S.A., nuclear safety regulation is moving to risk-informed regulation (RIR), so necessity of a standard to provide contents of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) constructing its roots has been discussed for a long time. In 1998, the Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (CNRM) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) began to investigate the standard, of which last edition was published as the Standard for Probabilistic Risk Management for Nuclear Power Plant Applications: RA-S-2002 (PRMA) on April, 2002. As in the Committee, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), electric power companies, national institutes, PRA specialists, and so on took parts to carry out many discussions with full energies of participants on risk management in U.S.A., the standard was finished after about four years' efforts. In U.S.A., risk management having already used PRA is successfully practiced, U.S.A. is at a stage with more advancing steps of the risk management than Japan is. Here was described on the standard of PRA and a concrete method of the risk management carried out at nuclear power stations. (G.K.)

An Intra-Group Perspective on Leader Preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøggild, Troels; Laustsen, Lasse

2016-01-01

This article argues that followers’ preferences for dominant leadership vary according to two types of exploitation risks from other individuals within the group. Previous work demonstrates that contexts of inter-group war and peace make followers prefer dominant- and non-dominant-looking leaders......, respectively. We add an intra-group perspective to this literature. Four original studies demonstrate that contexts with high risks of free-riding and criminal behavior from other group members (i.e., horizontal exploitation) increase preferences for dominant-looking leaders, whereas contexts with high risks...... of unresponsive, self-interested behavior from leaders themselves (i.e., vertical exploitation) decrease preferences for dominant-looking leaders. Moreover, within this framework of intra-group exploitation risks we show that followers prefer leaders from another vis-à-vis their own ethnic coalition to look less...