WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk llcr projection

  1. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  2. Risk management in nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles, Claudio J.R.

    2002-01-01

    The risk management will be defined by different aspects: danger or loss possibility, or responsibility for damage. The risk management is one stage of project management. The risk management is a continuous process of planning, identification, quantification, answer and risk control to maximize the success potential of activity. The reduction of risk is part of priority establishment. This work will indicate how introduce this important instrument in the management of nuclear projects. (author)

  3. Default risk in project finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klompjan, R.; Wouters, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Understanding default risk in project finance is relevant to investors. This article investigates which factors are most strongly associated with the occurrence of project finance default, using data from 210 projects, of which 37 were in default. The authors found that the use of proven technology,

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT USING PROJECT RECON

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-28

    centralized database . • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any...Create growth plans to proactively capture benefits • Customize reports to group opportunities by programmatic, technical, business, contracting, and

  5. Development of funding project risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

  6. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  7. Risk Management of NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarper, Hueseyin

    1997-01-01

    Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

  8. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  9. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  10. Risk management in product innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    In product innovation projects risk management has become increasingly important. Technological and commercial developments ask for effective and efficient product innovation. Systematic diagnosing and management of risks can help to make product innovation projects successful. In this paper a

  11. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  12. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  13. Risks management in project planning

    OpenAIRE

    Stankevičiūtė, Roberta

    2017-01-01

    Project management consists of two very important aspects – managing the right project and managing the project right. To know that you are managing the right project you need to ensure that your project is based on an actual requirement and that your project goal is relevant and beneficial. And professional project planning assists in managing project the right way. The project planning process is very time consuming and is one of the most important parts of the project management process. T...

  14. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  15. General risks for tunnelling projects: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siang, Lee Yong; Ghazali, Farid E. Mohamed; Zainun, Noor Yasmin; Ali, Roslinda

    2017-10-01

    Tunnels are indispensable when installing new infrastructure as well as when enhancing the quality of existing urban living due to their unique characteristics and potential applications. Over the past few decades, there has been a significant increase in the building of tunnels, world-wide. Tunnelling projects are complex endeavors, and risk assessment for tunnelling projects is likewise a complex process. Risk events are often interrelated. Occurrence of a technical risk usually carries cost and schedule consequences. Schedule risks typically impact cost escalation and project overhead. One must carefully consider the likelihood of a risk's occurrence and its impact in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. A project's goals, organization, and environment impacts in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. Some projects are primarily schedule driven; other projects are primarily cost or quality driven. Whether a specific risk event is perceived fundamentally as a cost risk or a schedule risk is governed by the project-specific context. Many researchers have pointed out the significance of recognition and control of the complexity, and risks of tunnelling projects. Although all general information on a project such as estimated duration, estimated cost, and stakeholders can be obtained, it is still quite difficult to accurately understand, predict and control the overall situation and development trends of the project, leading to the risks of tunnelling projects. This paper reviews all the key risks for tunnelling projects from several case studies that have been carried out by other researchers. These risks have been identified and reviewed in this paper. As a result, the current risk management plan in tunnelling projects can be enhanced by including all these reviewed risks as key information.

  16. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  17. Managing risks in the project pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This research focuses on how to manage the risks of project costs and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, and identifies significant : process improvements to ensure projects are delivered on time and as intended, thus maximizing the miles pave...

  18. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  19. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  20. Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, Johannes I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and

  1. Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and

  2. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  3. Security Risk Assessment in Software Development Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Svendsen, Heidi

    2017-01-01

    Software security is increasing in importance, linearly with vulnerabilities caused by software flaws. It is not possible to spend all the project s resources on software security. To spend the resources given to security in an effective way, one should know what is most important to protect. By performing a risk analysis the project know which vulnerabilities they face. A risk analysis will prioritise the vulnerabilities, and when the vulnerabilities are prioritised the project know where th...

  4. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

    2013-01-01

    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  5. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The assumption that large complex projects should be managed in order to reduce uncertainty and increase predictability is not new. What is relatively new, however, is that uncertainty reduction can and should be obtained through formal risk management approaches. We question both assumptions...... by addressing a more fundamental question about the role of knowledge in current risk management practices. Inquiries into the predominant approaches to risk management in large infrastructure and construction projects reveal their assumptions about knowledge and we discuss the ramifications these have...... for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...

  6. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU; MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2013-01-01

    High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by movi...

  7. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  8. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  9. Risk management for independent power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, J.L.

    1993-01-01

    Independent Power, where electric utilities or other bulk electric power users contract with individual electric power generation facilities to meet their projected long term power needs, has grown dramatically over the past ten years or more. This concept, to contract with Independent Power Producers (IPP), is not a new concept and in fact goes back to the early formation of the electric power industry in this country and worldwide. Successful Risk Management is the foundation for ultimate project completion and operation in fulfilling the expectations of all parties. The primary risks associated with the development of Independent Power projects include: predicting long term fuel availability and cost; predicting long term price for the deliverable of electricity; site selection, site characteristics and permitting; innovative or evolving technology; project execution (design and construction), and; lifetime O ampersand M costs and plant reliability. This paper focuses on the risks inherent in the development of IPPs and addresses the management of these risks

  10. Project Documentation as a Risk for Public Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladěna Štěpánková

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper presents the different methodologies used for creating documentation and focuses on public projects and their requirements for this documentation. Since documentation is also incorporated in the overall planning of the project and its duration is estimated using expert qualified estimate, can any change in this documentation lead to project delays, or increase its cost as a result of consuming administration, and therefore the documentation is seen as a risk, which may threaten the project as a public contract by which a company trying to achieve and obtains it, and generally any project. Methodology/methods: There are used methods of obtaining information in this paper. These are mainly structured interviews in combination with a brainstorming, furthermore also been used questionnaire for companies dealing with public procurement. As a data processing program was used MS Excel and basic statistical methods based on regression analysis. Scientific aim: The article deals with the construction market in the Czech Republic and examines the impact of changes in project documentation of public projects on their turnover. Findings: In this paper we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of having project documentation. In the case of public contracts and changes in legislation it is necessary to focus on creating documentation in advance, follow the new requirements and try to reach them in the shortest possible time. Conclusions: The paper concludes with recommendations on how to proceed, if these changes and how to reduce costs, which may cause the risk of documentation.

  11. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by moving of management profit analysis by risk intermediation, respectively the transition from managing profit to risk-return relationship management. Such trend assumes the obligation of participants to identify objectives and expected benefits of the project on the basis of the strategies laid-down, the elements of risk management policies, in conjunction with the indication of the most negative scenarios which they may provide. This activity must take into consideration the process of obtaining and combining human, financial, physical and information resources in order to accomplish the primary goal of the proposed and wanted project by a certain segment of population. Project participants are directed to evaluate their own activities in terms of revenues and risks from the business access, opportunity, operating mode, as well as the limitations and boundaries on certain sides of activity. The paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of incomes and risks, on simulations to streamline the activities and the determination of the optimal model of project choice. Also, the paper treats the risks that can be taken over by the sponsors, especially those related to implied guaranties, even implied guaranties.

  12. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  13. Clean development mechanism projects and portfolio risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Fujisawa, Sei; Mitamura, Wataru; Momobayashi, Yutaka; Yoshida, Yoshikuni

    2004-01-01

    Clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to facilitate technology transfer from developed to developing countries as well as to economically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we explore effective institutions to activate CDM projects. For this purpose, we have estimated internal rate of return (IRR) and other indicators on profitability for 42 CDM or JI projects, taking account of volatilities in the price of certified emission reductions (CER). As a result of Monte Carlo simulations, expected values and standard deviations in the IRR of the projects were quantitatively shown. Then we evaluated various risks in CDM, concluding that diversification of investment is an effective way to suppress these risks. Therefore securitization of CDM finance is proposed as a means of facilitating the diversification of investment. Namely, we present the concept of a CDM bond, which is a project bond with CER. We also investigated the role of governments to suppress risks in CDM. Referring to CERUPT, initiated by the Netherlands' government, the institution of 'insured CERUPT' is proposed to suppress downside risks in the IRR of the projects. We concluded that it is possible to make CDM projects viable by the 'insured CERUPT' and CDM bond

  14. Consideration of Risk in PPP-Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Zimmermann

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk management has become a core competence for companies operating in construction services. In particular regarding Real Estate Development and Construction Management the fundamental knowledge and the dedicated ap- plication of risk assessment turn out to be critical. Construction Management deals with a multitude of local and temporal issues which are unknown or only given by statistical evaluation while conducting a unique construction project within a very tight frame of budget and time. Real Estate projects focus on the predictability of profitable operation for a fairly long period in advance and are therefore subject to many more and more voluminous uncertainties. With PPP-projects a more or less complete federal task is awarded to a private company. Its extent varies but com- prises at least design, construction and operation of a real estate project, e.g. a toll road, bridge, tunnel or other infrastructural object. Durations of such contracts of- ten extend to some 20 to 30 years. In this article the applicability of traditional means of risk management is inves- tigated for the use on PPP-projects and limits of risk consequences are pointed out. Finally we come to the conclusion, that the resulting unavertable risks tend to exceed every surcharge that could be successfully placed on a market.

  15. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  16. Method ranks competing projects by priorities, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeckel, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    A practical, objective guide for ranking projects based on risk-based priorities has been developed by Sun Pipe Line Co. The deliberately simple system guides decisions on how to allocate scarce company resources because all managers employ the same criteria in weighing potential risks to the company versus benefits. Managers at all levels are continuously having to comply with an ever growing amount of legislative and regulatory requirements while at the same time trying to run their businesses effectively. The system primarily is designed for use as a compliance oversight and tracking process to document, categorize, and follow-up on work concerning various issues or projects. That is, the system consists of an electronic database which is updated periodically, and is used by various levels of management to monitor progress of health, safety, environmental and compliance-related projects. Criteria used in determining a risk factor and assigning a priority also have been adapted and found useful for evaluating other types of projects. The process enables management to better define potential risks and/or loss of benefits that are being accepted when a project is rejected from an immediate work plan or budget. In times of financial austerity, it is extremely important that the right decisions are made at the right time

  17. Risk-profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as an insurance vehicle and can be used at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. Either futures of swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices. While this does not necessarily maximize cash flow or present worth, it can protect a project or company for several years from downside price risk, thereby reducing the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cash flows or net incomes. This paper reports that reducing risk by limiting downside price exposure could alter budgeting decisions, allow continued or expanded operations of a particular property, or increase debt capacity

  18. Financial risks in major investment projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segelod, Esbjoern

    2006-01-01

    We have probably all read about large projects which proved far more expensive than anticipated, projects such as the Channel tunnel which cost 80% more than planned, and the oil pipeline between the oil field in Prudhoe Bay in Northern Alaska and the oil terminal in Vadez in the south which overran its budget by 1,000%. The purpose of this paper is to summarise our knowledge of the risk of cost escalation. Which projects are more likely than others to be hit by cost escalation, and why

  19. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, Andrew; Doucet, Joseph; Nickel, Trevor

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other. - Research highlights: → We find that government policy may increase both project returns and risk. → We find a policy of capital grants combined with an output price support to be preferred. → Price supports alone will tend to reward those plants which need them the least.

  20. Risk-informed ranking of engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    Refurbishment planning requires prudent investment decisions with respect to the various systems and components at the station. These decisions are influenced by many factors, including engineering, safety, regulatory, economic, and political constraints. From an engineering perspective, the concept of cost-benefit analysis is a common way to allocate capital among various projects. Naturally, the 'best' or optimal project should have the lowest cost and the highest benefit. In the context of risk-informed decision making (RIDM), a process that has been widely embraced by the global nuclear community, the costs and benefits must further be 'weighted' by probabilities to estimate the underlying risk associated with the various planning alternatives. The main purpose of this study is to illustrate how risk and reliability information can be integrated into the refurbishment planning process to facilitate more objective and transparent investment decisions. The methodology is based on the concept of generation risk assessment (GRA) which provides a systematic approach for balancing investment costs with the reduction in overall financial risk. In addition to reliability predictions, the model provides estimates for the level of risk reduction associated with each system/project and also the break-even point for investment. This information is vital for project ranking, and helps to address the key question of whether capital investment should be made in the most risk critical systems, or in systems that reduce the overall risk the most. The application of the proposed methodology requires only basic information regarding the current reliability of each engineering system, which should be readily available from plant records and routine condition assessments. Because the methodology can be readily implemented in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, all plausible (e.g., bounding) planning scenarios, with or without investment, can also be generated quickly and easily, while

  1. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  2. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Carmen ENE

    2005-01-01

    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  3. PROJECT MANAGER SKILLS, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladut Iacob

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the projects are different from each other there are many common things that contribute to their success. Looked overall, the success of a project is the result of a multitude of factors. This person is considered the "engine" of the project. The man who makes the action set for the achievement of project objectives to be brought to an end. The project manager must have the technical knowledge and economic diverse. He should be able to choose a team and lead. You must be tenacious, combative, to know how to communicate both within the team and beyond. In a word, the project manager must have an impressive stock of knowledge, skills and abilities and appreciate as Peter Drucker, to "exist for the organization. To be its servant. Any management who forget this will only cause damage to the organization. "This study will focus on highlighting the skills of the project manager and their role in managing difficult situations or risk.

  4. Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

    CERN Document Server

    Pandian, C Ravindranath

    2006-01-01

    Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

  5. Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Seth J.

    2014-01-01

    Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…

  6. PECULIARITIES OF ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN INNOVATIVE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor V. Guzhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methodological and methodicalbases of risk management in innovativeprojects. Classification of risks. Types of risks depending on the stage of realizationof the innovative project. Investigated thefactors contributing to the emergence ofrisk situations. The basic techniques of risk management of innovation projects.Proposed criteria for the choice of the innovative project to implement in the realsector of the economy.

  7. Risk Management for New Product Development Projects in Food Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porananond, D.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Project risk management provides a guideline for decision making in new product development (NPD projects, reducing uncertainty and increasing success rate. However, the acceptance of formal risk management applications in industry, especially for NPD projects is still in question. A study of a food conglomerate in Thailand found that only 9% of NPD projects used a systematic approach for managing risk. 61% of the projects realised the importance of risk management, while the remaining 30% did not involve risk management at all. This study aims to develop a risk management model for NPD projects in the food industry. The first section of this paper reviews the literature on risk management theory, including international standards for risk and project management (ISO31000 and ISO21500, publications for the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK, by a professional organisation the Project Management Institute (PMI, and also academic research. 182 academic papers, published between January 2002 and August 2012 were selected. The second part interviews conducted with eight NPD experts from five of the major food manufacturers in Thailand to examine their risk management practices and problems. Conclusions are made on five topics : classification of research method, project type and industrial segment, distribution of articles by region, tools & techniques for risk management and risk factors in projects. Specific requirements of risk management for NPD projects in the food industry are identified. A risk management model and the concept of risk management applications for the food industry are proposed.

  8. Risk profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought by some to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as insurance and can be utilized at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. This paper reports that either futures or swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices, an accomplishment very difficult or impossible to duplicate through other means, particularly with such integrity. Participation in futures or swaps does not necessarily maximize cashflow or present worth, it can either guarantee the price, put a minimum price in place or offer a combination of the above. A project or company can be protected for several years from downside price risk using swaps. Not being subject to market price swings substantially reduces the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cashflows or net incomes

  9. Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Partyka

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

  10. Effects of Risk Management Practices on IT Project Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pimchangthong Daranee

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful management of an information technology (IT project is the most desirable for all organisations and stakeholders. Many researchers elaborated that risk management is a key part of project management for any project size. Risk management is so critical because it provides project managers with a forward-looking view of both threats and opportunities to improve the project success. The objectives of this research are to explore organisational factors affecting IT project success and risk management practices influencing IT project success. Risk management practices include risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, and risk monitoring and control. The IT project success is measured by process performance and product performance. Data are collected from 200 project managers, IT managers, and IT analysts in IT firms through questionnaires and analysed using Independent Sample t-test, One-way ANOVA, and Multiple Linear Regression at the statistical significance level of 0.05. The results show that the differences in organisational types affect IT project success in all aspects, while the differences on organisational sizes affect IT project success in the aspect of product performance and total aspects. Risk identification and risk response planning influence the process performance and the total aspects of IT project success. Risk identification has the highest positive influence on product performance, followed closely by risk response, while risk analysis negatively influences product performance.

  11. Information technology project risk management in Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Del Carpio Gallegos, Javier

    2014-01-01

    This article shows how some principles, uses, and practices of risk management are applied in information technology projects in Peru; in the last four years, in representative sectors like manufacturing, banking, information and communications, academics institutions, construction, government, consulting, services, and others. El presente artículo muestra algunos principios, usos y prácticas de cómo la gestión de riesgos de proyectos de tecnología se ha llevado a cabo en los últimos cuatr...

  12. Review of the project risk management plan in the capital projects organization at ConocoPhillips

    OpenAIRE

    Meidell, Camilla

    2011-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management Project Risk Management (PRM) has in recent years become an important aspect of business organization and project management. There has always been a requirement for some risk management at COPNO. However about 3 years ago the process became much more defined and has become a requirement for the contingency used on projects to be based upon the risking process. Since risk management in projects is a requirement in the CP organization it is ...

  13. Risk managements' communicative effects influencing IT project success

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, Karel; Boonstra, Albert; Wortmann, Hans

    The central question of this research is if, and how, risk management contributes to the success of IS/IT projects. Risk management is used regularly in IT projects, despite indications in literature that risk management only occasionally contributes to IT project success. Drawing on Habermas we

  14. Tank Waste Remediation System Characterization Project Programmatic Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baide, D.G.; Webster, T.L.

    1995-12-01

    The TWRS Characterization Project has developed a process and plan in order to identify, manage and control the risks associated with tank waste characterization activities. The result of implementing this process is a defined list of programmatic risks (i.e. a risk management list) that are used by the Project as management tool. This concept of risk management process is a commonly used systems engineering approach which is being applied to all TWRS program and project elements. The Characterization Project risk management plan and list are subset of the overall TWRS risk management plan and list

  15. Overlapping Boundaries of the Project Time Management and Project Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius PODEAN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on utility function, milestones during project and/or the end of projects or programme may be categorized in what are called soft-deadline and hard-deadline. In contrast with the soft-end projects, the hard-end projects posses a decrease of utility function with a vertical asymptote character around the deadline for project completion. In extreme situations, the utility function itself may fall under zero (projects may generate losses to both constructor and customer. Existing risk analysis methodologies observe risks from monetary terms. The typical risks are correlated with an increase in final project costs. In order to estimate harddeadline milestones and/or end of projects or programme is critical to employ the time dimension rather than the typical cost-based risk analysis. Here, we comprehensively describe a structured methodology that focuses on minimizing and mitigating project specific delay risks. The method may supplement existing cost-based risk analysis in projects. We aim to elegantly combine moderation techniques to reveal the intrinsic risk of the projects. In addition to the technical risks, the moderation techniques are able to bring evidence of risks as the team efficacy, diverse un-correlations or miss-understanding about the roles of the team members in the team – most of the project soft risk. Described methodology encourages the common understanding of risks for participants, crystallizing the essence of what can go wrong in complex situations and where the opportunities can be unlocked.

  16. An Assessment of risk response strategies practiced in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanita Bhoola

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.

  17. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  18. Project finance risks - getting it right first time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bain, F.

    1996-01-01

    Bankers seeking to invest in the construction of new power stations by independent power producers, face greater risks than those lending to companies. Independent risk and insurance advisers are used to assess project risk. ''Project finance'' has become increasingly popular as it allows projects to go ahead that could not be supported from sponsors' own resources. In addition, project finance means that various equity partners can join together in a joint venture company and limit their individual risk. Project finance can be delayed by differences between the needs of sponsors, financiers and insurers. The process can be speeded up by foreknowledge of bankers' requirements. (UK)

  19. Simple steps help minimize costs, risks in project contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camps, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Contrary to prevailing opinion, risks and project financing costs can be higher for lump sum (LS) project contracts than under reimbursable-type contracts. An element-by-element analysis of the risks and costs associated with a project enables investors to develop variations of reimbursable contracts. Project managers can use this three-step procedure, along with other recommendations, to measure the hidden project costs and risks associated with LS contracts. The author bases his conclusions on case studies of recent projects in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. The findings, however, are general enough to be applicable in other industrial sectors

  20. Project Structuring and Risk Allocation for NPP Construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaser, Greg

    2013-01-01

    This presentation treats of the project risks and how to mitigate major risks and structure a new project. It also talks about the contract implications to handle the specificities of a new project: design complexities, interface between the engineering, procurement and constructing contractors, and finally discusses the necessity of a stable regulatory environment and the role of government

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND PRACTICES IN IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRANDAS Claudiu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

  2. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  3. Risk Management in Information Technology Project: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornelius Irfandhi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The companies are facing some risks due to changes in a dynamic environment. If risks are not managed properly, it will have some negative impacts on the companies at the present and the future. One important function of the Information Technology (IT governance is risk management. Risk management in IT project aims to provide a safe environment for IT projects undertaken. Risk management becomes an important process for the success of IT projects. This article discussed the risk of IT project and whether there was a relationship between risk management and the success of the project. The method used was performing a literature review of several scientific articles which published between 2010 and 2014. The results of this study are the presence of risk management and risk manager influence the success of the project. Risk analysis and risk monitoring and control also have a relationship with the subjective performance of IT projects. If risk management is applied properly, the chance of the success of the projects undertaken can be increased. 

  4. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  5. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  6. On Best Practices for Risk Management in Complex Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan BENTA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management shall be proactive. This is one of the key preliminaries to cope with the challenges of complex projects. An overarching and consistent view on project risks and uncertainties is necessary to follow a holistic approach in project risk management. Uncertainty is inevitable since projects are unique and temporary undertakings based on assumptions and constraints, delivering project results to multiple stakeholders with different requirements. Project management can be seen as an attempt to control this uncertain environment, through the use of structured and disciplined techniques such as estimating, planning, cost control, task allocation, earned value analysis, monitoring, and review meetings. Each of these elements of project management has a role in defining or controlling inherent variability in projects. Project risk management provides approaches by which uncertainty can be understood, assessed, and managed within projects. A number of associations (e.g., Project Management Institute – PMI®, International Project Management Association – IPMA,or Network of Nordic Project Management Associations - NORDNET work constantly in acquiring, improving, and standardizing best practices in project management.Based on the industrial practice, this paper outlines strategies to identify, prioritize, and mitigate risks for achievement of project’ or organizational objectives.

  7. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  8. Project risk as identity threat: explaining the development and consequences of risk discourse in an infrastructure project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, A.; van Berkel, F.J.F.W.; de Gilder, T.C.; van Dyck, C.; Groenewegen, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the role of social identity threat in risk discourse in an infrastructure project, and the consequences risk discourse has for cooperation between stakeholders. We show that risks posed a threat to the identity of the project team, resulting in a discourse focused on attributing

  9. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  10. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    CERN Document Server

    Vanhoucke, Mario

    2013-01-01

    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  11. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trowsdale, R.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

  12. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercy, M.; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven P.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects

  13. Project risk management: A review of an institutional project life cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanjiru Gachie

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This article is a desktop analysis of project risk management involving a project management institutional restructuring. The pragmatic nature of this research allows for the literature review and the document analysis to be integrated and presented as both a descriptive and analytical research. The analysis demonstrates that the project committee did not proactively manage project risk. The restructuring was a change management project, entailing the implementation of many organisational changes, such as restructuring, lay-off of some part of the administrative workforce, adoption of new technology, provision of new approaches to well-established procedures, and implementation of new performance initiative, the process which should have been managed with an effective integrated risk strategy and plan. Analysis of the restructuring project risk management exhibits little evidence of a systematic (computer based or manual record that should have provided policies, procedures, and structures for managing risk. The article concludes that the restructuring risk process was inadequate and it could not have ensured a successful project. An analysis of the restructuring project risk monitoring and control exhibits a reactive rather than proactive application of risk management procedures. The analysis further indicates that the committee failed to make use of the various project risk management processes, standards, and guidelines. Based on the conclusions, the article recommends that project risk planning, strategy, control, and monitoring should be put in place for future institutional projects. The project management team should also put in place procedures for primary stakeholders engagements, identify and address their nature of interest and power in future risk management projects

  14. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  15. The Risks of Investments in Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Pokorná

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions should not be taken without an in-depth analysis of the risks. This is an important stage in project preparation and should be performed simultaneously with the planning of the financial operations. Infrastructure development requires that project risks and responsibilities be assigned to the public or private entity that is best able to manage them. The risks and their financial impacts are usually not quantified equally by all parties. Each party views the given risks according to the guarantees provided. These guarantees are related to the form of participation in the project.

  16. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Stela FLORESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

  17. Managing complex, high risk projects a guide to basic and advanced project management

    CERN Document Server

    Marle, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Maximizing reader insights into project management and handling complexity-driven risks, this book explores propagation effects, non-linear consequences, loops, and the emergence of positive properties that may occur over the course of a project. This book presents an introduction to project management and analysis of traditional project management approaches and their limits regarding complexity. It also includes overviews of recent research works about project complexity modelling and management as well as project complexity-driven issues. Moreover, the authors propose their own new approaches, new methodologies and new tools which may be used by project managers and/or researchers and/or students in the management of their projects. These new elements include project complexity definitions and frameworks, multi-criteria approaches for project complexity measurement, advanced methodologies for project management (propagation studies to anticipate potential behaviour of the project, and clustering approaches...

  18. Risk Management in Construction Project: Taking Fairness into Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Górecki, Jarosław; Bizon-Górecka, Jadwiga

    2017-10-01

    Risk management requires a comprehensive review of possible hazards, their possible outcomes as well as some recommendations about minimizing the risk. The study emphasises that the project risk management refers to an analysis of the risk factors and a creation of the strategy minimising negative effects of the risk. It was pointed out that a construction project is this kind of projects that can be defined as a unique process of high complexity (design documentation, various stages of creating the building), which has clearly defined time frames and a given financial limit. It is executed as a team work, by qualified or highly qualified specialists of different matters, for example masonry, precast, etc. Additionally, it requires a use of modern equipment and an adequate preparation of the investment. Therefore, the risk management focuses on the problems allowing for troubleshooting. A basis of the risk management is to recognise the fundamentals, which are crucial for the construction project management, i.e. an object perspective, including technological, supporting and management processes as well as an entity perspective - project stakeholders. Construction projects require also an acquaintance with the specificity of the branch. The article refers to the risk management in construction project and, in particular, a phenomenon of participants’ fairness in such projects. The problem of fairness of the entities involved in a project should be understood as a fair play, according to the arrangements agreed in a contract and compatible with current formal procedures and social rules. It was indicated that fairness can be treated as an important factor in predicting the success of such projects. Interviews conducted among contractors in Kuyavian-Pomeranian region showed varied fairness requirements put to individual participants of construction projects. The article presents results of the research. It shows a desired attitude of the surveyed enterprises

  19. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  20. Risk Management on the National Compact Stellarator Project (NCSX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, Robert T.; Heitzenroeder, Philip J.; Reiersen, Wayne T.; Neilson, George H.; Strykowsky, Ronald L.; Rej, Donald; Gruber, Christopher O.

    2009-01-01

    In its simplest form, risk management is a continuous assessment from project start to completion that identifies what can impact your project (i.e., what the risks are)., which of these risks are important, and identification and implementation of strategies to deal with these risks (both threats and opportunities). The National Compact Stellerator Experiment (NCSX) Project was a 'first-of-a-kind' fusion experiment that was technically very challenging, primarily resulting from the complex component geometries and tight tolerances. Initial risk quantification approaches proved inadequate and contributed to the escalation of costs as the design evolved and construction started. After the Project was well into construction, a new risk management plan was adopted. This plan was based on successful Department of Energy (DOE) and industrial risk management precepts. This paper will address the importance of effective risk management processes and lessons learned. It is of note that a steady reduction of risk was observed in the last six months of the project

  1. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  2. Risk Management Improvement of Engineering Projects in Woodworking Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Bartkutė

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a complex phenomenon that has physical, monetary, cultural and social dimensions. Every company wants tosave money, time, increase quality, optimise manufacturing, but each factor may involve different risks with different influenceto company, its reputation. The aim of the research is to find better risk management improvement decisions, using techniquesthat could help to reduce risk impact in wood-based nonstandard production with shorter project time, smoother design process,lower costs, better project coordination, increased ability to manage problems, technical solutions.

  3. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  4. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Large Complex Public Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neerup Themsen, Tim; Harty, Chris; Tryggestad, Kjell

    Governmental actors worldwide are promoting risk management as a rational approach to man-age uncertainty and improve the abilities to deliver large complex projects according to budget, time plans, and pre-set project specifications: But what do we know about the effects of risk management...... on the abilities to meet such objectives? Using Callon’s (1998) twin notions of framing and overflowing we examine the implementation of risk management within the Dan-ish public sector and the effects this generated for the management of two large complex pro-jects. We show how the rational framing of risk...... management have generated unexpected costly outcomes such as: the undermining of the longer-term value and societal relevance of the built asset, the negligence of the wider range of uncertainties emerging during project processes, and constraining forms of knowledge. We also show how expert accountants play...

  5. ERP project implementation and risk management of nuclear power enterprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fei

    2008-01-01

    According to the characteristic and development trend of nuclear power enterprise informatization, combined with the general ERP implementation experience, the method is proposed to ensure the successful implementation and risk management of ERP project in nuclear power enterprise. (authors)

  6. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  7. Climate Change Risk Management: CRE Adaptation Projects and the Risk Management Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.

  8. Multiobjective genetic algorithm approaches to project scheduling under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kılıç, Murat; Kilic, Murat

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, project scheduling under risk is chosen as the topic of research. Project scheduling under risk is defined as a biobjective decision problem and is formulated as a 0-1 integer mathematical programming model. In this biobjective formulation, one of the objectives is taken as the expected makespan minimization and the other is taken as the expected cost minimization. As the solution approach to this biobjective formulation genetic algorithm (GA) is chosen. After carefully invest...

  9. Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer, Tahani R.

    2011-01-01

    NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

  10. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  11. Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

  12. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  13. Planning risk communication for UMTRA project groundwater restoration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hundertmark, Charles [Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. and University of Phoenix (United States); Hoopes, Jack [Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (United States); Flowers, Len [Roy F. Weston Company (United States); Jackson, David G [U.S. Department of Energy (United States)

    1992-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is entering a new phase in which groundwater contamination will become a growing focus as surface remedial action draws toward completion. Planning for risk communication associated with the groundwater project will be a major factor in the successful initiation of the program. (author)

  14. Relationships Between Risks in an IT Project Development Portfolio

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kusters, R.J.; Postema, J.J.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Lavazza, L.; Oberhauser, R.; Martin, A.; Hassine, J.; Gebhart, M.; Jäntti, M.

    2013-01-01

    More and more it is seen that IT (Information Technology) projects are managed as a whole as part of a IT project portfolio. As one of the arguments for doing so, risk management at the portfolio level was identified as one of the advantages that could benefit from this. This was based on the notion

  15. Project Scheduling Based on Risk of Gas Transmission Pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvianita; Nurbaity, A.; Mulyadi, Y.; Suntoyo; Chamelia, D. M.

    2018-03-01

    The planning of a project has a time limit on which must be completed before or right at a predetermined time. Thus, in a project planning, it is necessary to have scheduling management that is useful for completing a project to achieve maximum results by considering the constraints that will exists. Scheduling management is undertaken to deal with uncertainties and negative impacts of time and cost in project completion. This paper explains about scheduling management in gas transmission pipeline project Gresik-Semarang to find out which scheduling plan is most effectively used in accordance with its risk value. Scheduling management in this paper is assissted by Microsoft Project software to find the critical path of existing project scheduling planning data. Critical path is the longest scheduling path with the fastest completion time. The result is found a critical path on project scheduling with completion time is 152 days. Furthermore, the calculation of risk is done by using House of Risk (HOR) method and it is found that the critical path has a share of 40.98 percent of all causes of the occurence of risk events that will be experienced.

  16. Planning risk communication for UMTRA project groundwater restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hundertmark, Charles; Hoopes, Jack; Flowers, Len; Jackson, David G.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is entering a new phase in which groundwater contamination will become a growing focus as surface remedial action draws toward completion. Planning for risk communication associated with the groundwater project will be a major factor in the successful initiation of the program. (author)

  17. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-04-01

    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  18. safety risk management based on fuzzy logic at underground projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Taherkhani

    2017-11-01

    Conclusion: In the present article, a new model was developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the event, which so far has not been addressed in other studies. Finally, effective measures can be taken to reduce the risk of a project by eliminating the high risk factors.

  19. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  20. The Strategic Risk Management at Different Stages of Innovation Project

    OpenAIRE

    Pysmak Viktoriia O.

    2017-01-01

    This article considers the theoretical principles of the strategic risk management at every stage of innovation project. Relevance of the selected area of research has been substantiated in view of the necessity to provide the theoretical and practical foundations for the strategic risk management of innovation activity. Principles of management of innovation at a contemporary enterprise have been allocated. Analysis of such concepts as «risk», «innovation», «strategic management» was carried...

  1. WAYS TO IMPROVE RISK MANAGEMENT IN COMPLEX PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia IORDACHE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is present in all human activities; it can be associated with health, security, economy or environment. The goal of risk management is to control, prevent or decrease potential damages. Technically speaking, risk management means all the activities coordinated so as to orient and monitor an organization from the risk perspective. Risk management helps formulate the most adequate decisions by taking account of uncertainties and their effects upon the accomplishment of proposed goals, and argues the need to lay down and implement coercive, preventive actions typical of the management of a company. The benefits of good risk management and also the consequences of bad management shall undoubtedly be felt by an organization’s board, employees, shareholders, customers as well as by all other entities concerned with organizational performance. Projects generally include a number of risks in common with those in business as well as certain typical ones. In complex projects, it is this very feature – complexity – which generates the need to implement risk management for the purpose to diminish, remove, and monitor the risks which can influence the development of a project.

  2. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  3. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  4. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  5. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  6. NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

  7. The Strategic Risk Management at Different Stages of Innovation Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pysmak Viktoriia O.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the theoretical principles of the strategic risk management at every stage of innovation project. Relevance of the selected area of research has been substantiated in view of the necessity to provide the theoretical and practical foundations for the strategic risk management of innovation activity. Principles of management of innovation at a contemporary enterprise have been allocated. Analysis of such concepts as «risk», «innovation», «strategic management» was carried out. The concept of «innovation project» has been considered, its features and characteristics have been allocated. The basic tools of the strategic management of enterprise in current conditions have been described. The basic principles of the strategic risk management of innovation activity have been formulated. A scheme with allocating the stages of innovation activity and the risks involved has been elaborated, taking into consideration the factors of occurrence of risks. The main groups of management strategies have been allocated. The tasks facing the managerial board in the process of the strategic risk management at every stage of the innovation project have been formulated.

  8. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  9. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kajal Chatterjee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders’ lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information’s, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster–Shafer (D–S theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR. An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed

  10. Effective Project Risk management in Micro Companies : Case study for Persona Optima Iceland ehf.

    OpenAIRE

    Bražinskaitė, Justina

    2011-01-01

    This study is meant to be a guide for micro companies regarding effective project risk management. The main purpose of this thesis is to introduce project risk management and build a user-friendly managerial model toward effective project risk management in micro companies. The research is based on a case company Persona Optima Iceland ehf. analysis. The study investigates risk management, uncertainties and risks in projects, project risk management, its models and particularities in orde...

  11. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  12. Occupational emerging risks affecting international virtual project Team Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitraşcu-Băldău Iulia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of internet access, high-speed connection services, collaborative work platforms and tools, allowed employees to interact virtually offering companies the possibility to develop projects around the world, reducing operational costs and gain competitive advantage. Realizing the advantages and disadvantages of developing a project team in an international virtual work environment, requires adopting specific strategies to construct an effective team and ensure the project success. One of the most important disadvantages that we identified is that the new work environment brings new risks for both team members and managers. So, it becomes mandatory to identify and analyze the occupational emerging risks and their impact on the productivity of virtual team members, in order to prevent them efficiently and to ensure the safety and health of employees in a virtual working environment. This paper aims to highlight the necessity for project managers and organizations, to include in their specific project strategies, an efficient occupational risks management in the virtual workplace, to obtain a continuously improved virtual working environment, so to achieve a high performance from virtual employees.

  13. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  14. Recognizing Risk-of-Failure in Communication Design Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Joyce; Lievesley, Matthew; Taylor, Louise

    2009-01-01

    The pace of commercial graphic design practice presents very few opportunities to conduct user research after a project's launch. This makes the design team's ability to anticipate and address risks during the design development phase even more important, recognized in the astute observation from Tim Brown, CEO of leading international design…

  15. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  16. Identifying and managing risk in international construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Kerur

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decade, major construction projects have increasingly arisen in countries or regions that lack specialist, expert construction contractors, suppliers and consultants. Steps are being taken by governments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, China, India and developing markets to address national infrastructure deficits, and by so doing, are creating new regions of booming construction demand. When coupled with anaemic growth in developed markets such as the United Kingdom, the USA and Western Europe, foreign markets present attractive opportunities to the global construction industry. However, foreign markets are littered with the cautionary tales of international contractors and consultants that have failed to grasp the intricacies and risks of operating in a new environment and have failed to capitalise on the opportunities available. By identifying the classes of risks, and undertaking detailed analysis, ranking and mitigation of relevant jurisdictional risks, participants in international construction projects will increase the likelihood of project success and commercial longevity in the new jurisdiction. Risk identification and assessment is not a science but an art, and while there are many potential approaches to the issue, we propose that our strategies for identifying, assessing, ranking and mitigating jurisdictional risks offer new international players a good chance of commercial success.

  17. Risk Management in the Implementation of Smart Building Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article contains the results of a study of the risk control structure in the implementation of smart building projects, which are presented herein in the form of an operational risk management mechanism developed by the author and an improved definition of the risk management system. The mechanism is developed based on the analysis of a review of the current state of the construction sector and the existing organizational structures of construction companies, as well as based on the identification of new necessary functions and objectives of risk management systems. The results of the study can be used in the process of development and integration of risk management systems by the existing construction companies specialized in the construction of smart buildings.

  18. Shedding New Light on Project Portfolio Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariusz Hofman

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper constitutes an innovative attempt to analyse the risks and negative phenomena dependencies within a project portfolio. Based on the available literature, the risks and negative phenomena (that is, the problems with the availability of resources, interpersonal conflicts, irregularities in the portfolio balance, etc. specific to a project portfolio were identified. Theoretical constructs were then used to connect the identified risks with the negative phenomena. Structural equations were used to confirm the existence and quality of these constructs, as well as models describing connections between phenomena. The determination of the structural equations also provided a setting in which statistical methods (χ2, RMSEA and CFI could be used to investigate the level of fit of the constructs and models to the empirical data.

  19. Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, C.

    1982-01-01

    Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

  20. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Munier, Nolberto

    2014-01-01

    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  1. [Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

  2. Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim

    2017-08-01

    Unexpected increase in cost and delays in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, etc. in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun and schedule overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost and schedule has received extensive attention of researchers, but because of continuous changes and development in the field, the study considered of added value to the construction industry in Egypt, in addition to risk strategy and plan analysis. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost and scheduling should be flexible enough to accommodate changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. As such, the objectives of the presented research in this paper are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost and time contingency. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt. The collected data, output charts and analyses spreadsheets will be used for the development of computerized model built by the authors with identification abbreviation RIAM.

  3. monIT: A Portuguese Risk Communication Project on EMF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Carla; Sebastiao, Daniel; Carpinteiro, Goncalo; Fernandes, Carlos A.; Correia, Luis M.

    2006-01-01

    The monIT project is a risk communication programme, aiming at providing information on exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) from mobile communication systems in Portugal. monIT's website, www.lxlit.pt/monit, is the main interface for dissemination of information. Besides including relevant information about EMF for both the general public and the technical community, this website provides results from extensive measurement campaigns performed all over Portugal during the last three years. This paper presents the project's structure and activities, practical results achieved and ends with some conclusions and action lines for future work. (author)

  4. Risk Management System and Project Staff Education Program for Overseas Construction Project Using the Expert System

    OpenAIRE

    Hirota, Yoichi

    2007-01-01

    The turnover of the Japanese contractors and the consulting firms has kept the same level since 1983, in spite of the fact that the size of domestic market is shrinking. This is why they do not have a proper management system, especially risk management system for the overseas construction projects. This study aims at building risk management system and developing education program that can be applied to reinforcing the ability, based on the author’s experience. Risk is defined as “uncertain ...

  5. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  6. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  7. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin McLain

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  8. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  9. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Carrillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  10. Assessing reservoir performance risk in CO2 storage projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowden, A.R.; Rigg, A.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main issues for researchers involved with geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been the development of a proper methodology to assess and compare alternative CO 2 injection projects on the basis of risk. Consideration needs to be given to technical aspects, such as the risk of leakage and the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, as well as less tangible aspects such as the value and safety of geological storage of CO 2 , and potential impacts on the community and environment. The Geological Disposal of Carbon Dioxide (GEODISC), was a research program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre which identified 56 potential environmentally sustainable sites for CO 2 injection (ESSCIs) within Australia. Several studies were carried out, involving detailed evaluation of the suitability of 4 selected sites, including Dongara, Petrel, Gippsland and Carnarvon. The GEODISC program included a risk assessment research module which required a complete and quantified risk assessment of CO 2 injection as a storage option. Primary goals were to assess the risk of leakage, to assess the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, and to assess negative consequences to facilitate comparison of alternative sites. This paper discussed the background and risk assessment model. Key performance indicators (KPIs) were also developed to address the purpose of risk assessment. It was concluded that the RISQUE method is an appropriate approach and that potential injection projects can be measured against six KPIs including containment; effectiveness; self-funding potential; wider community benefits; community safety and community amenity. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  11. RISK ANALYSIS FOR SHIP CONVERTING PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENT (Case study of KRI KP Converting Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimas Endro W

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

  12. Managing a complex project using a risk-risk multiple domain matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pointurier, C.; Marle, F.; Jaber, H.

    2014-01-01

    This communication aims at presenting a clustering methodology applied to a complex project consisting of the delivery of three interdependent subsystems. This enables small and complementary task forces to be constituted, enhancing the communication and coordination on transverse issues related to the complexity of the whole system. The problem is to gather and exploit data for such systems, with numerous and heterogeneous risks of different domains (product, process, organization). The method consists in regrouping actors through the clustering of the risks they own. The result is a highlight on important and transverse risk interdependencies, within and between projects. These should not be neglected in order to avoid potential severe issues, whether during the project or during the exploitation of its deliverable. An application on a real program of plant implementation in the CEA-DAM is presented, with a sensitivity analysis of the clustering results to the inputs and chosen configurations of the problem. (authors)

  13. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  14. Risk projection and the fertility of rural families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, R

    1991-01-01

    The author comments on the theories and empirical evidence which aid in understanding the determinants of the reproductive behavior of farmers in China. The issues are defined, and discussion expands on the needs for a specific number of children in rural versus urban areas, M. Cain's risk insurance hypothesis, the importance of modes of production for the farm family, the farmer's security versus risks, and the balance between risk projection and the maximization of interest. The significance of risk projection is presented as are the implications for policy making. Neither theory of farmer's reproductive behavior, 1) the economic cost and benefit theory or 2) the need for labor theory is considered suitable. The idea that benefits exceed the costs of rearing children cannot justify the repeated cycle of poverty among farmers with many children. The Hubei Province, Danjiankou City, study which estimates rearing costs of 3360 yuan/child benefits of 305 yuan/year to the parents in old age is considered incorrect. The second theory agrees that children are needed for production but recognized surplus labor and does not account for the fact that the more children, the poorer the family. Micro demographic theories identify factors affecting demographic behavior, the extent to which factors affect fertility, and the interrelatedness of factors. The rural family feels jeopardized with one child, and the lowest tolerable number of children is 2-3 in rural areas. Manual labor is the basis of the traditional peasant economy. In this economy, loss of income is a threat whether due to crop failure, weather changes, or market changes. Payment occurs at the end of the year only. Child health is a risk due to poor nutrition and poor health facilities. Following a one-child policy might jeopardize perpetuation of the family line and provision for parents by sons. Urban risks are different. Rural families limit risk by keeping material resources, enlarging and strengthening the

  15. Alpha-risk: a European project on the quantification of risks associated with multiple radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurier, D.; Monchaux, G.; Tirmarche, M.; Darby, S.; Cardis, E.; Binks, K.; Hofmann, W.; Muirhead, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Alpha-Risk research project is being conducted within the Sixth European Framework Programme (EC-FP6, 2005 -2008). It aims to improve the quantification of risks associated with multiple exposures, taking into account the contribution of different radionuclides and external exposure using specific organ dose calculations. The Alpha-Risk Consortium involves 18 partners from 9 countries, and is coordinated by the IRSN. Its composition allows a multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers in epidemiology, dosimetry, statistics, modelling and risk assessment. Alpha-Risk brings together major epidemiological studies in Europe, which are able to evaluate long-term health effects of internal exposure from radionuclides. It includes large size cohort and case-control studies, with accurate registration of individual annual exposures: uranium miner studies, studies on lung cancer and indoor radon exposure, and studies of lung cancer and leukaemia among nuclear workers exposed to transuranic nuclides (mainly uranium and plutonium), for whom organ doses will be reconstructed individually. The contribution of experts in dosimetry will allow the calculation of organ doses in presence of multiple exposures (radon decay products, uranium dust and external gamma exposure). Expression of the risk per unit organ dose will make it possible to compare results with those from other populations exposed to external radiation. The multidisciplinary approach of Alpha-Risk promotes the development of coherent and improved methodological approaches regarding risk modelling. A specific work - package is dedicated to the integration of results and their use for risk assessment, especially for radon. Alpha-Risk will contribute to a better understanding of long-term health risks following chronic low doses from internal exposures. The project also has the great potential to help resolve major public health concerns about the effects of low and/or protracted exposures, especially

  16. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  17. Financing offshore projects: The banker's approach to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beldam, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    The author has attempted to consider why companies chose to share risks with banks and looked in particular at the unique risk sharing aspect of project financing and how this may be reflected in the loan documentation. He also has considered the current market place and examined some trends for the future. The future challenge in the North Sea is going to be to use existing and new technology to reduce capital and operating costs, balanced with optimal recovery and safety. From a bank perspective, this type of work is extremely satisfying, if challenging, and the author has no doubt banks will continue to play their part in the future of offshore development wherever it occurs around the world

  18. Perceived risks in product innovation projects : development of a risk skeleton

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.; Song, X.M.

    1999-01-01

    The essence of undertaking a product innovation project is to create or establish something new. Risk taking is an intrinsic part of that process. In today's markets, with heavy competition, advanced technology and tough economic conditions, successful product innovation has become critically

  19. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  20. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  1. From field studies to risk management: the Sensib project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercat-Rommens, C.; Renaud, P.

    2004-01-01

    The consequences for the man and the environment of the discharges of nuclear facilities depend on the importance and the nature of the discharges, but also on the environment which receives them. Thus, the impact of a pollution, which is expressed in term of toxicity, risk or economic consequences, varies according to the characteristics of the environment and the use of this environment by the man. The radioecological sensitivity can be defined as the response of the environment to a radioactive pollution. This response is expressed through various indicators: the activity of a radionuclide at a precise moment, a stock of radionuclide in a given environmental compartment or a flux of radionuclide... For a determined discharge, the higher is the response, the more sensitive is the environment. If all the ecosystems appear sensitive, their sensitivity does not concern the same criteria and it is currently difficult to compare these criteria between them; is it more hazardous to have a stock of radioactivity present in a natural space or to have an important but time-limited concentration of radionuclides in a river used for irrigation? The idea of the SENSIB project is to create a standardized tool which makes it possible to represent and to compare with the same scale the sensitivity of various ecosystems. The sensitivity indexes, which will be developed during the project, aim to represent the intensity of the environmental response. These indicators, which are the result of the transfer of the radionuclides in the environment, depend on various intrinsic parameters of the ecosystems (climate, soil, agricultural practises...). The SENSIB project, based on results of field studies conducted by IRSN, aims to develop both a methodology to calculate sensitivity indexes and a radioecological sensitivity scale usable for risk management. (author)

  2. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borga, M.; Anagnostou, E.N.; Bloeschl, G.; Creutin, J.-D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  3. Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: an outcome from MIAVITA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bignami, Christian; Bosi, Vittorio; Costantini, Licia; Cristiani, Chiara; Lavigne, Franck; Thierry, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are one of the most impressive, violent and dramatic agents of change on Earth, threatening hundreds of millions of people. The crises management implies a strong cooperation among the main stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities, scientific institutions, operational forces). Considering the great amount of different actions required during the whole volcanic cycle (e.g., preparedness, unrest phase, crisis management, resilience), the role and responsibilities of stakeholders should be clarified in advance. In particular, the role of scientists, fundamental in all the phases, should be well discussed with the other stakeholders and well defined, for every country. This will allow a better management and response, and contribute to avoid misunderstanding. The new "Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management" issued by the MIAVITA European project, funded by the European Commission (Mitigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) gives a contribution to that. Indeed, this handbook aims at synthesizing the acquired knowledge on volcanic risk management, such as prevention, preparedness, mitigation, intervention, crisis management and resilience, in a practical and useful way. It promotes the creation of an ideal bridge between different actors involved in risk management, improving and facilitating interactions among authorities and scientists. This work is based on current scientific research and the shared experience of the different MIAVITA project partners as well as on international good practices previously recommended. The handbook is composed of six sections. The first one briefly explains the global volcanic context and the principles of corresponding risk management. Section 2 contains a description of volcanic phenomena, damage and understanding size and effects that can be expected. Sections 3, 4 and 5 meet preparation and prevention issues and describe actions to be undertaken during the response phase

  4. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  5. Risks Associated with Unconventional Gas Extraction Projects. Induced Seismicity, NORM and Ecological Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigo-Naharro, J.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-01-01

    The latest technological advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling are globally driving the commercial extraction of unconventional resources. Although there is still no commercial exploitation of these resources within the EU, the fact that there are potential reserves in some countries, such as Spain, stimulates the need of performing preliminary studies to define the characteristics that an unconventional gas extraction project should consider. The object of these features are the safety of the project, thus minimizing the probabilities of negative environmental impacts, and especially since there is not any EU Framework Directive focusing on the regulation of the operation of such fossil fuels. A project of this nature, involving natural systems, must start from the knowledge of these systems and from an assessment of its features in order to reach the environmental safety of the operations. Moreover, the implementation of risk management systems, along with the existence of an appropriate legislation and supervision are key elements in the development of unconventional gas extraction projects that are environmentally friendly. The present report includes, among the overall risks associated with such projects, those related to: i) the induced seismicity; ii) the Naturally-Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM); and iii) the ecology.

  6. Shell’s use of science in de-risking projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rossouw, N

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This presentation discusses Shell’s use of science in de-risking projects. The presentation includes examples of applying science in the De-Risking process, supporting scientific research and De-Risking the Karoo Basin....

  7. Health risk assessment for a MWC ash utilization demonstration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roffman, H.K.

    1992-01-01

    A Health Risk Assessment (HRA) was conducted for the proposed joint Hennepin County/Municipal Services Corporation (MSC) MSW Ash Utilization Demonstration Project, in which combined HERC ash was shipped to the MSC Pilot Plan near Atlanta, Georgia and used in the production of a synthetic aggregate. The synthetic aggregate, or TAP, will serve as a partial replacement for natural aggregates in a section of bituminous pavement that is proposed to be constructed on Pioneer Trail in the City of Corcoran, Minnesota. In this paper, the assessment compares the following three scenarios: a section of roadway paved using the MSC synthetic aggregate product (TAP) as a replacement for 30 percent of the natural aggregates used in bituminous pavement; a section of regular bituminous (asphalt) pavement; and a section of unpaved road currently in place at the site

  8. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  9. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  10. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  11. Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

    With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

  12. Noxious facility impact projection: Incorporating the effects of risk aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Developing new sites for noxious facilities has become a complex process with many potential pitfalls. In addition to the need to negotiate conditions acceptable to the host community, siting success may depend on the facility proposer's ability to identify a candidate site that not only meets technical requirements, but that is located in a community or region whose population is not highly averse to the risks associated with the type of facility being proposed. Success may also depend on the proposer accurately assessing potential impacts of the facility and offering an equitable compensation package to the people affected by it. Facility impact assessments, as typically performed, include only the effects of changes in population, employment and economic activity associated with facility construction and operation. Because of their scope, such assessments usually show a short-run, net economic benefit for the host region, making the intensely negative public reaction to some types and locations of facilities seem unreasonable. The impact component excluded from these assessments is the long-run economic effect of public perceptions of facility risk and nuisance characteristics. Recent developments in psychological and economic measurement techniques have opened the possibility of correcting this flaw by incorporating public perceptions in projections of economic impacts from noxious facilities

  13. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  14. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  15. Risk management in public sector construction projects: Case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a project environment. Since projects are complicated, experience ... work, delays trigger cost overruns in construction projects (African. Development Bank ..... quantity surveying, contract management, and engineering. Table 4: Research ..... professionals at the business and operational levels of construction management.

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT IN A LARGE-SCALE NEW RAILWAY TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

  17. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadsheh, Louay A.

    2010-01-01

    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  18. Risk Management Plan for Tank Farm Restoration and Safe Operations, Project W-314

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCGREW, D.L.

    2000-01-01

    The Risk Management Plan for Project W-314 describes the systems, processes and procedures for implementation of applicable risk management practices described in HNF-0842, Volume IV, Section 2.6, ''Risk Management''. This plan is tailored specifically for use by Project W-314

  19. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke

    2011-01-01

    Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

  20. Managing the risks of a large-scale infrastructure project : The case of Spoorzone Delft

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Priemus, H.

    2012-01-01

    Risk management in large-scale infrastructure projects is attracting the attention of academics and practitioners alike. After a brief summary of the theoretical background, this paper describes how the risk analysis and risk management shaped up in a current large-scale infrastructure project in

  1. Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Pekkinen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and conflicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.

  2. A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

    2018-01-01

    In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

  3. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

  4. The Role and the Effects of Risk Management in IT Projects Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otniel DIDRAGA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The success of IT projects is influenced by risk and risk management according to the existing project management literature. The paper emphasizes the role of risk management and its contribution to projects success in the existing literature. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2012 from the main IT project management journals and publications. The results are that risk management is a very important component of the project management process and it is assumed implicitly to work in favour of project success. We also performed a quantitative analysis of how risk management processes affect the subjective and objective performance of IT projects in Romanian IT companies.

  5. CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY OF INVESTMENT BUILDING PROJECTS BASED ON THE RISK MANAGEMENT CONCEPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morozenko Andrey Aleksandrovich

    2012-10-01

    minimization of risky situations requires reduction of the project implementation period; development of domestic methodologies and standards of project risk management tailored to the conditions of our construction industry is a relevant assignment.

  6. A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mahmoudi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

  7. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  8. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  9. Risk assessment in energy efficiency projects; Gerenciamento de riscos em projetos de eficiencia energetica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aragao Neto, Raymundo Moniz de

    2003-08-15

    This paper aims to present processes related to risk management in energy efficiency projects, delivered in a performance contracting basis. Introductory comments will be presented about the considered project model, emphasizing the necessity of proper processes of risk management and evaluation and their treatment according methodology developed by PMI - Project Management Institute, grouped in its publication PMBOK - Project Management Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian market reality, as a form of illustrating the considered methodology.

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF AN ENTERPRISE AND IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lech Jędrzejewski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to issues related to building a risk management system for businesses in the areas of operations and implementation of infrastructure projects. The article defines the concept of risk in business processes and identifies risks occurring in infrastructure projects. In the text, the principles have been presented for protection against the effects of political, contracting, environmental, ecological, product, process, operational and personnel risk.

  11. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  12. Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

  13. From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

    2006-01-01

    Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

  14. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  16. Integrating knowledge for managing risk in infrastructure projects : the case of tunnel works

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen

    2012-01-01

    The objective of traditional approaches to project risk management is to identify risks that can lead to project failure and to implement effective strategies to manage them. Information on the relevant causes and conditions in which failures arise is usually required as necessary input for

  17. Students in a School Environment: A Project Focused on Family Involvement of At-Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Pat

    2011-01-01

    This project examined family involvement of at risk students in mid-west communities. The purpose of this project was to study the affect of family involvement on at-risk student achievement. The redefining of the perception of America has resulted in a crisis of academic performance in the traditionally slow-changing education systems. This topic…

  18. Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

    2017-12-01

    Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

  19. An Exploratory Study of the Effects of Project Finance on Project Risk Management : How the Distinguishing Attributes of Project Finance affects the Prevailing Risk Factor?

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Ka Fai

    2011-01-01

    Project finance is a financing arrangement for projects, and it is characterised by the creation of a legally independent project company financed with non- or limited recourse loans. It is observed that the popularity of project finance is increasing in the recent decades, despite of the impact of Asian financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, project finance is very common among the public-private partnership projects. It is possible that project finance yields some benefits in pro...

  20. Risk level project. Summary report, Norwegian Shelf, Phase 7; Risikonivaaprosjektet. Sammendragsrapport Norsk Sokkel, fase 7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    The project 'developments in risk level - Norwegian shelf', also known as the risk level project, was initiated by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate in 2000. From 2004 the project has been continued by Petroleum Safety Authority Norway. The project's main objectives are to measure the effect of the health, security and environment (HSE) work in the industry, and contribute to identify the areas critical to HSE, where efforts must be made to prevent unwanted events or accidents. A summary report with results from phase 7 in the project (ml)

  1. Project risk management for development of non-utility power generators (NUGs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, T.

    1990-01-01

    The growing Non-Utility Generation (NUG) industry has brought new opportunities and challenges for the insurance industry. There can be unique engineering and financial risks involved in the development of Non-Utility Power Generation projects. The use of new technologies to meet stringent environmental regulations and to improve project performance and efficiency presents new challenges to the project developers and designers. The lack of funding, resources and experience of some of these projects may create unusual risks that could result in failure or deficiency in the performance of the projects

  2. Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

    In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

  3. Causes and remedies for the dominant risk factors in Enterprise System implementation projects: the consultants' perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, Przemysław

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the causes of the dominant risk factors, affecting Enterprise System implementation projects and propose remedies for those risk factors from the perspective of implementation consultants. The study used a qualitative research strategy, based on e-mail interviews, semi-structured personal interviews with consultants and participant observation during implementation projects. The main contribution of this paper is that it offers viable indications of how to mitigate the dominant risk factors. These indications were grouped into the following categories: stable project scope, smooth communication supported by the project management, dedicated, competent and decision-making client team, competent and engaged consultant project manager, schedule and budget consistent with the project scope, use of methodology and procedures, enforced and enabled by the project managers, competent and dedicated consultants. A detailed description is provided for each category.

  4. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  5. AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

  6. Study On Risk Handling Strategy Of Road Contruction Projects In Jayapura City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irianto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Project risk is an event or an uncertain condition which if it appears will have a threat on the project object. Many contractors still do not understand the threats that occur in the project they still assume that risks are always harmful. Based on data from the Papua Public Works procurement service that the implementation of road improvement projects always faces problems. This research is an explorative and descriptive study which explores the risks threats that occur in the project from the contractors perspective in Jayapura Papua Province Indonesia. The object of this research is the company contractor involved in the implementation of road improvement project in Jayapura whereas the respondent is the project manager and the field supervisor involved in the implementation of road improvement project The analysis result shows that the overall level of risk is in very low category and the biggest risks affecting contractors in sequence are 1 material delays from suppliers 2 material inventories 3 design difficulties 4 incorrectly shipped material volumes 5 changes to specifications by the owner 6 difficulty in obtaining materials and equipment 7 material price increases 8 over quality 9 damage to machine tools 10 weakening the bearing capacity of subgrade soil. While the response to risks threats that occur in road improvement projects is to reduce and avoid.

  7. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

    2013-09-01

    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  9. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  10. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  11. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  12. Identification of risk factors affecting construction of projects: The case of emerging economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chipo Mellania Maseko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Controlling project risks has become a daunting task in construction and this can be attributed to issues such as the nature of modern projects. The challenge is that risk appears unannounced at any project phase for various reasons and thereby affecting the performance and the success of unprepared projects. The current studies that explored risk matters include Pehlivan and Öztemir (2015, Katre, and Ghaitidak (2016 amongst others. However, there is absence of unanimity from these studies on risk factors in construction. Thus, this article was instigated in order to identify and classify risk factors that affect the chances of project success. The research methodology selected for this article comprised of peer-reviewed articles between the periods of 2007 to 2017. This approach involved a comprehensive scrutiny into scholarly articles to comprehend risks in construction projects. Following a conceptual analysis, eighty factors were identified and classified under the following; technical, construction, financial, socio-political, physical, organisational, and environmental and other risks. From these categories, political instability was, found to be the most influential risk factor in construction projects and this factor was classified within the socio-political category and this category has total of 11 factors. Finding suggests the need for further empirical study.

  13. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  14. The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Gushchina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

  15. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  16. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  17. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment project risks were specified on the basis of interconnection of risk and project effectiveness. Risk management procedure at realization of the developer project was developed.

  18. A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.

    2017-11-01

    In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.

  19. Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. A prospective radiological risk assessment for a phosphate industry project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauria, Dejanira C.; Reis, Rocio G., E-mail: dejanira@ird.gov.br, E-mail: rocio@ird.gov.br

    2012-07-01

    The Santa Quiteria Project is the major Brazilian uranium mine project, nowadays. A peculiarity of this project is the association of uranium with phosphate and the mining and processing of both by two different enterprises. A private company will be responsible for the production of phosphoric acid and a state owned company will be responsible for the production of yellow cake. At full capacity, the facility will generate 10% of Brazil's total annual phosphoric acid production and 1,500 tons of yellow cake per year. The processing by which phosphoric acid is produced generates phosphogypsum (PG) as a by-product. The ratio of phosphogypsum to phosphoric acid is around 5 to 1. After all the phosphate has been extracted and processed, it is expected that some 37 million tons of phosphogypsum with 13 Bq/g of {sup 226}Ra will be produced. A prospective generic assessment was carried out for evaluating the potential radioactive impact of this PG stack on the workers and surrounding inhabitants. Two hypothetical farmer scenarios were designed to estimate the potential dose out of the project boundary and over the stack piles, after the shutdown of the project. The annual exposure dose of workers was also evaluated. As a result, the potential public and worker doses exceeded the adopted level of doses of 1mSv.y{sup -1} and 6 mSv.y{sup -1}, respectively. The simulation spotlighted the importance of the rainfall erosion index, and consequently the stack shape for the environmental contamination. The importance of planning the decommissioning of the facility still in the planning phase of the project to give support for the feasibility studies was also highlighter. Although quite conservative, the prospective assessing of dose herein is useful to aware and guide the decision makers on information and data survey and taking avoiding action to protect the health, by changing the project in some way. (author)

  1. RIMAP demonstration project. Pat. 1: Risk based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Puck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic

    2003-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [1] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM - Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: development (RTD), demonstration (DEMO) and thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: identification of critical components, application of a multilevel risk analysis (..from ''screening'' to ''detailed analysis''), determination of PoF - Probability of Failure, determination of COF - Consequence of Failure and optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. (orig.)

  2. EC FP6 Siberia-focused Enviro-RISKS Project and its Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A. A.; Gordov, E. P.

    2009-04-01

    The FP6 Project "Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia" (Enviro-RISKS) strategic objective is to facilitate elaboration of solid scientific background and understanding of man-made associated environmental risks, their influence on all aspects of regional environment and optimal ways for it remediation by means of coordinated initiatives of a range of relevant RTD projects as well as to achieve their improved integration thus giving the projects additional synergy in current activities and potential for practical applications. List of Partners includes 3 leading European research organizations, 6 leading Russian research organizations (5 - located in Siberia) and 1 organization from Kazakhstan. Additionally several Russian and European research organizations joined to the Project as Associated Partners. Scientific background and foundation for the project performance is formed by a number of different levels RTD projects carried out by Partners and devoted to near all aspects of the theme. The set comprise coordinated/performed by partners EC funded thematic international projects, Russian national projects and other projects performed by NIS partners. Project outcomes include, in particular, development and support of the bilingual Enviro-RISKS web portal (http://risks.scert.ru/) as the major tool for disseminations of environmental information and project results; achieved level of development of Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, http://sirs.scert.ru/), which is the Siberia-focused NEESPI Environmental Mega-Project ongoing under the auspices of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The main Project outcome are Memorandum on the state of the art of environmental RTD activity in Siberia and Recommendations on future environmental RTD activity in Siberia elaborated by four Working Experts Groups working in most important for Siberia Thematic Focuses. Three Thematic Focuses

  3. MARR project risk matrices in radiotherapy; Proyecto MARR: matrices de riesgo en radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, M. L.; Perez Mulas, A.; Vilanova, J.; Prieto, C.; Delgado, J. M.; Alvarez, C.; Rodriguez, M.

    2014-07-01

    Radiotherapy is a complex process not without risk for the patient. The Council de Nuclear Safety (CSN), based on its cooperation with the health authorities regarding radiation protection of patient is promoting, through the project MARR, (Risk matrix in radiotherapy) the risk analysis in the radiotherapy departments of our country. This project represents the extension of methodologies applied in the nuclear sector other radiological practices. The aim is to share, with professional societies, the knowledge acquired by the CSN during its participation in the Ibero-American Forum of regulators (Forum) projects. (Author)

  4. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS IN A CONTROL SYSTEM OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Grebenkin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the organizational development innovative project and the technique of its estimation is in this article offered. The distinctive special feature of this method is comparison of opportunities and risks by means of essentially new system of the parameters. These parameters allow to receive a complex estimation of a condition of organizational development innovative projects. Approbation of the offered estimated technique has been lead on set of organizational development innovative projects which were realized at the enterprises of a various branch accessory. The hypothesis about necessity of definition of a condition of the project by means of an estimation of opportunities and their comparisons to risks is confirmed.

  5. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  6. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing, & budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.G.; Castillo, C.; Huntsman, J.; Killoy, S.; Lucek, H.; Marks, T.C.

    2011-01-01

    Faced with the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex Transformation, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming and inherently introduces bias of the scheduler or organization into the process. Clearly a well-defined process, quantitative risk-based tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). Faced with limited available data, innovation was needed to extrapolate intelligent relative data for key risk parameters based on known data elements. The IFDP Supermodel was customized and expanded to provide this capability for conceptual planning of diverse project portfolios and multiple sites. (author)

  7. Deciphering priority areas for improving project risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unethical practices contributing to poor project delivery in the ZCI,. Mukumbwa and Muya .... Egypt, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mozambique,. Nigeria, Pakistan ..... The analysis is based on the Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 .... poor interpretation of contract; poor safety on site; disputes; high taxes;.

  8. The CAREM-25 project from the risk point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    The future use of the nuclear energy for electricity production is considered a possible alternative, mainly taking into account the high environmental impact of the fossil fuel alternatives (greenhouse effect, acid rain). In a worldwide context, however, it is desirable for the new nuclear power plants to be safer than the present ones. To demonstrate the safety level of a nuclear installation, the Risk Analysis (in fact, Probabilistic Safety Analysis) is an adequate tool, as it allows for the risk level quantification. The risk itself is composed of two factors, the first takes into account the probability associated with accidental sequences that release radioactive materials, the second takes into account the amount and consequences of such a release. In the present work, the reduction of both factors is faced, the probability by using simpler safety systems (inherently safe systems), and the consequence by using small power production units, that have, besides, passive mitigation systems and long response times. The work is illustrated with a risk comparison for electricity production via CAREM-25 units, against via a classic design unit (Atucha II). The results are base in Probabilistic Safety Studies performed for both installations. The conclusions show an effective risk reduction (both in probability and in consequence), reaching the point where in no case acute irradiation effects are predicted in the vicinity of the accidented plant. (author) [es

  9. Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

    2018-03-01

    This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

  10. Risk identification for PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jinbo; Song, Danrong; Zhang, Xueqing; Sun, Yan

    2013-01-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) is regarded as a renewable energy source. In China, the sharp increase of MSW has precipitated the rapid growth of waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration plants. Private capital has been getting into the WTE incineration industry through the public–private partnership (PPP) arrangement. Due to the large construction cost and the long concession period commonly associated with this arrangement, a number of failures have emerged in PPP WTE incineration projects. The aim of this paper is to investigate the key risks of PPP WTE incineration projects in China and study the strategies for managing these risks by drawing experience and learning lessons from these projects. First, we analyzed the MSW management practices, relevant legislations and policies, and the development of PPP WTE incineration projects in China. Second, we identified ten key risks through interviews, surveys and visits to some selected projects, and provided detailed analysis of these risks. Lastly, we developed response strategies for these risks from the perspectives of both public and private sectors. - Highlights: • We analyze MSW management practices, relevant legislations and policies in China. • Through case study on PPP WTE incineration projects, ten key risks are identified. • Response strategies for key risks are developed

  11. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  12. Projection of radiation-induced cancer risks across time and populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    Various methods can be used to project the risks of radiation-induced cancer estimated in cohort studies beyond the period of follow-up and to other populations. The choice of risk projection model is reviewed based on data from studies such as those of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and UK ankylosing spondylitis patients given X ray therapy. Risk estimates applicable to a UK population are calculated on the basis of various models, including those developed by the BEIR V Committee. It is emphasised that the continued follow-up of populations such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors is of great importance in estimating lifetime risks. (author)

  13. Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

    1992-10-01

    A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

  14. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  15. The Fee Sensitive Risk Exposures of Project Authorized Person in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai-On Cheung

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Authorized Persons (AP play a critical role in the design and construction of building works in Hong Kong. Under the Building Ordinance, design and construction of building works need to be coordinated and monitored by an AP registered with the Buildings Department. Professionally qualified Architects, Engineers and Surveyors are eligible to register as AP after completing the prescribed assessment. In addition, the project AP is often appointed by the project owner to be the project team leader. In these capacities, a project AP is exposed to various risks. This paper seeks to identify the fee sensitive risk exposures of project APs. Through an ANOVA study, these risks exposures are those due to liabilities under the Building Ordinance at the construction stage, those towards the third parties and the clients.

  16. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  17. Interconnection of the Degree of Risk and Life Cycle of the “Green Construction” Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lepehova Natalia; Shoshinov Vitaly

    2017-01-01

    This article analyses interconnection of the degree of risk and the life cycle of the “green building” investment projects, which is structured according to the life cycle. Main stages of the implementation of investment and construction project were considered, interconnection of the project life cycle and the level of project risk were presented in the form of graphical model, proposed a mathematical model of the risk calculation at different stages of the project life cycle, which is a fun...

  18. Introduction to Toxicity and Risk Assessment for Project Chemists

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-27

    Toxicity of Hexavalent Chromium  External review complete  EPA will wait until studies underway on carcinogenic mode of action are complete to...finalize the assessment  NJ and Cal values for hex chrome 16 Risk-Based Screening Levels Resident Soil (mg/kg) Resident Water Use (µg/L) DRAFT 0.04

  19. Research on Investment Risk Management of Chinese Prefabricated Construction Projects Based on a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.

  20. Projected lifetime risks and hospital care expenditure for traumatic injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, David C; Anderson, Jamie E; Kobayashi, Leslie; Coimbra, Raul; Bickler, Stephen W

    2012-08-01

    The lifetime risk and expected cost of trauma care would be valuable for health policy planners, but this information is currently unavailable. The cumulative incidence rates methodology, based on a cross-sectional population analysis, offers an alternative approach to prohibitively costly prospective cohort studies. Retrospective analysis of the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) database was performed for 2008. Trauma admissions were identified by ICD-9 primary diagnosis codes 800-959, with certain exclusions. Cumulative incidence rates were calculated as the cumulative summation of incidence risks sequentially across age groups. A total of 2.2 million admissions were identified, with mean age of 63.8 y, 49.6% men, 82.8% Whites, 5.7% Blacks, 11.3% Hispanics, and 3.1% Asians. The cumulative incidence rate for patients older than age 85 y was 1119 per 10,000 people, with the majority of risk in the elderly, compared with 24,325 per 10,000 people for all-cause hospitalizations. The rates were 946 for men, 1079 for women, 999 for non-Hispanic Whites, 568 for Blacks, 577 for Hispanics, and 395 for Asians, per 10,000 population. The cumulative expected hospital charge was $6538, compared with $81,257 for all-cause hospitalizations. The cumulative lifetime risk of trauma/injury requiring hospitalization for a person living to age 85 y in California is 11.2%, accounting for 4.6% of expected lifetime hospitalizations, but accounting for 8.0% of expected lifetime hospital expenditures. Risk of trauma is significant in the elderly. The total expenditure for all trauma hospitalizations in California was $7.62 billion in 2008. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risks and opportunities management on laser Megajoule project: the development of a new knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delafosse-Le Ber, H.; Deysson, St.; Briault, S.

    2004-01-01

    The interest of these six years spent to build the management through the Risks and the Opportunities (R and O) approach on the project Megajoule Laser as well did not hold with the practical application of a method as to the installation of a formal culture and to its evolution in time. This culture, it had to be progressively founded within a mainly technical project team. More qualitative with most quantitative aspects, the putting into practice of the R and O approach on project LMJ knew all the degrees of evolution and precision. The starting of the project saw being born the first analysis of its 'Project Risk' with a series of interviews, carried out by the Quality Manager at the time. This analysis took the shape of a technical item lists, which are identified in an empirical way. Then, some brainstorming meeting were led under the responsibility of the Technical Coordinator (which is the Project Manager assistant) in order to identify and to evaluate the 'Project Risk' on a qualitative way, but always keeping a strong technical connotation. The methodological reference of the 'Project Risk' was outlined taking into account the DGA AQ 923 without directly interaction with the other project processes (for example, the cost, the deadlines and the performance management). Initially, the project developed an Access database, which allows the storing of the risk files. Unfortunately, this database is isolated from the other project management data processing tools. In the second time, the project decided to obtain a dedicated organisation, hierarchically independent from the technical managers but however integrated into the project and attached to the assistant of the Control Project Manager. This organisation being called 'Risks and Opportunities Team', when the management of the opportunities supplemented the R and O approach. This team combines today the individual interviews and the Working Groups in order to identify and to evaluate the effects of the R

  2. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  3. Risk Assessment in Financial Feasibility of Tanker Project Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Badrus Zaman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Every ship project would not be apart from risk and uncertainty issues. The inappropriate risk assessment process would have long-term impact, such as financial loss. Thus, risk and uncertainties analysis would be a very important process in financial feasibility determination of the project. This study analyzes the financial feasibility of 17,500 LTDW tanker project. Risk and uncertainty are two differentiated terminologies in this study, where risk focuses on operational risk due to shipbuilding process nonconformity to shipowner finance, while uncertainty focuses on variable costs that affect project cash flows. There are three funding scenarios in this study, where the percentage of funding with own capital and bank loan in scenario 1 is 100% : 0%, scenario 2 is 75% : 25%, and scenario 3 is 50% : 50%. Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to simulate the acceptance criteria, such as net present value (NPV, internal rate of return (IRR, payback period (PP, and profitability index (PI. The results of simulation show that 17,500 LTDW tanker project funding by scenario 1, 2 and 3 are feasible to run, where probability of each acceptance criteria was greater than 50%. Charter rate being the most sensitive uncertainty over project's financial feasibility parameters.

  4. Risk Management Affecting IS/IT Project Success Through Communicative Action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    Project risk management is defined in the literature as being instrumental action based on rational problem solving. Research indicates limited positive effects of an exclusive focus of instrumental action on project success. This article proposes to extend this instrumental view through

  5. Evaluation and financial risk management of urban renewal projects in partnership with public and private

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Hassani

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Financing plays an important role for renewal of old city building is find suitable financing plan. A proper financial management in one hand has a direct relationship with project main factors such as: time, cost and quality of the project, and on the other hand, achieving project goals requires a comprehensive insight of project, stockholders as well as other relative situation in regard with the project. Considering the complication of execution such projects and the number of shareholders, one of the best attitudes towards the project management is risk management. This research is a qualitative and practical, which reviews the effects of project management factors on financial return of urban renewal sachem. The required information gained through a survey and via questionnaire and interviews with specialists. This article first describes the public private financial partnership and then, based on the results gained from a case study done on one of the renewal schemes in Mashhad metropolitan areas. Next, it identifies and evaluates of positive and negative risks, which lead to threats and opportunities will be performed and will attempt to respond the existent risks. Finally, we provide a framework for the risk assessment of the housing units.

  6. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  7. Air Force Project Risk Management - The Impact of Inconsistent Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-15

    influences into witting and unwitting biases . A witting bias in terms of its effect on PRM includes risk assessment data that is skewed in order to fulfill... biases mentioned, which include weighting of recent events, optimism bias , and failure to acknowledge the probability of a “perfect storm” or “black...incentive based conscious bias , occurs deeper in the subconscious where it can take effect unrealized and is therefore harder to detect and find fault

  8. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  9. A Probabilistic Alternative Approach to Optimal Project Profitability Based on the Value-at-Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggu Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on an investment decision-making process for sustainable development based on the profitability impact factors for overseas projects. Investors prefer to use the discounted cash-flow method. Although this method is simple and straightforward, its critical weakness is its inability to reflect the factor volatility associated with the project evaluation. To overcome this weakness, the Value-at-Risk method is used to apply the volatility of the profitability impact factors, thereby reflecting the risks and establishing decision-making criteria for risk-averse investors. Risk-averse investors can lose relatively acceptable investment opportunities to risk-neutral or risk-amenable investors due to strict investment decision-making criteria. To overcome this problem, critical factors are selected through a Monte Carlo simulation and a sensitivity analysis, and solutions to the critical-factor problems are then found by using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and a business version of the Project Definition Rating Index. This study examines the process of recovering investment opportunities with projects that are investment feasible and that have been rejected when applying the criterion of the Value-at-Risk method. To do this, a probabilistic alternative approach is taken. To validate this methodology, the proposed framework for an improved decision-making process is demonstrated using two actual overseas projects of a Korean steel-making company.

  10. Risk management tools from the traditional energy industry to wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randall, G.; Marks, R.

    2010-01-01

    Risk-based analysis techniques are used to quantify and prioritize a wide variety of problems within the traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power industries. This poster presentation evaluated some of the risk analysis tools and methods used by the energy industry to quantify and manage wind energy development risks. A comprehensive risk-based approach for identifying the probability and consequences of potential concerns was presented for a sample wind energy project. The process determined objectives in relation to the project's net present value. Contributing domains included the energy production, prices, and operating costs of the project. Decision criteria used to evaluate the desirability of the wind project were then developed. Monte Carlo simulations were the used to aggregate individual risks into an overall total. The contribution of each element to the decision objective was calculated separately. The element outputs were than combined into a measure of aggregate risk exposure. Aggregate results were used to calculate the decision criteria. The decision objective was to determine if the energy cost was less than the avoided cost of other project options. The study showed that the approach can allow decision-makers to mitigate risks. However, the results are dependent on the quality of the input data. tabs., figs.

  11. Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied

  12. Risks and chances of combined forestry and biomass projects under the Clean Development Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutschke, Michael; Kapp, Gerald; Lehmann, Anna; Schaefer, Volkmar (Hamburg Inst. International Economics (Germany))

    2006-06-15

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) aims at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while at the same time taking up CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere in vegetation by means of afforestation and reforestation. In spite of these options being complementary, rules and modalities for both project classes are being treated separately in the relevant decisions by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The present study reviews the state of bioenergy use in developing countries, modalities and procedures under the CDM, and the potential for transaction cost reduction in climate mitigation projects. There are four potential types of combinations in the matrix between small-scale - large-scale / afforestation and reforestation - bioenergy activities. We develop criteria for assessing sustainable development benefits and present an example project for each of the potential project types. We find that the individual risks of single-category projects do not increase when combining project categories and that each combination holds potential for integrated sustainability benefits. Risks for local livelihoods do increase with project size, but a transparent, participatory planning phase is able to counterbalance smallholders' lack of negotiation power. Further research will have to develop concrete project examples and blueprints with approved CDM methodologies, thereby decreasing transaction costs and risk for all potential project partners. (au)

  13. Determination of risk identification process employed by NHS for a PFI hospital project in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. E. Mohamed Ghazali

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term concession contracts associated with Private Finance Initiative (PFI projects, such as National Health Service (NHS hospitals, are subject to substantial risks, which may not only emerge from project activities such as design and construction, but also from global issues beyond the control of project parties, such as commercial, legal and political risks. Therefore, the principal parties involved must manage risks effectively and efficiently, as early as the project initiation stage, in order to ensure a successful delivery. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk identification process of the NHS PFI hospital in the UK, as a case study, in order to determine the techniques used in risk identification, and their significance, based on estimated probabilities of occurrence. These objectives were achieved through interviews with key personnel within the NHS Trust involved. Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre-commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process.

  14. Current industrial practice of managing risks in product development project portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weng, R.; Oehmen, Josef; Ben-Daya, M.

    2013-01-01

    Managing portfolios of development and engineering projects currently presents significant challenges to companies. This is even more the case in the management of portfolio risks, where both industry and academia currently lack a clear conceptual understanding of what portfolio risks are and what...

  15. Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

  16. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk

  17. Modelling of risk events with uncertain likelihoods and impacts in large infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2010-01-01

    to prevent future budget overruns. One of the central ideas is to introduce improved risk management processes and the present paper addresses this particular issue. A relevant cost function in terms of unit prices and quantities is developed and an event impact matrix with uncertain impacts from independent......This paper presents contributions to the mathematical core of risk and uncertainty management in compliance with the principles of New Budgeting laid out in 2008 by the Danish Ministry of Transport to be used in large infrastructure projects. Basically, the new principles are proposed in order...... uncertain risk events is used to calculate the total uncertain risk budget. Cost impacts from the individual risk events on the individual project activities are kept precisely track of in order to comply with the requirements of New Budgeting. Additionally, uncertain likelihoods for the occurrence of risk...

  18. Implementation of lean construction techniques for minimizing the risks effect on project construction time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usama Hamed Issa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction projects involve various risk factors which have various impacts on time objective that may lead to time-overrun. This study suggests and applies a new technique for minimizing risk factors effect on time using lean construction principles. The lean construction is implemented in this study using the last planner system through execution of an industrial project in Egypt. Evaluating the effect of using the new tool is described in terms of two measurements: Percent Expected Time-overrun (PET and Percent Plan Completed (PPC. The most important risk factors are identified and assessed, while PET is quantified at the project start and during the project execution using a model for time-overrun quantification. The results showed that total project time is reduced by 15.57% due to decreasing PET values, while PPC values improved. This is due to minimizing and mitigating the effect of most of the risk factors in this project due to implementing lean construction techniques. The results proved that the quantification model is suitable for evaluating the effect of using lean construction techniques. In addition, the results showed that average value of PET due to factors affected by lean techniques represents 67% from PET values due to all minimized risk factors.

  19. ACCIDENT PHENOMENA OF RISK IMPORTANCE PROJECT - Continued RESEARCH CONCERNING SEVERE ACCIDENT PHENOMENA AND MANAGEMENT IN Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolandson, S.; Mueller, F.; Loevenhielm, G.

    1997-01-01

    Since 1988 all reactors in Sweden have mitigating measures, such as filtered vents, implemented. In parallel with the work of implementing these measures, a cooperation effort (RAMA projects) between the Swedish utilities and the Nuclear Power Inspectorate was performed to acquire sufficient knowledge about severe accident research work. The on-going project has the name Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3. In this paper, we will give background information about severe accident management in Sweden. In the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project we will focus on the work concerning coolability of melted core in lower plenum which is the main focus of the In-vessel Coolability Task Group within the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project. The Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project has joined on international consortium and the in-vessel cooling experiments are performed by Fauske and Associates, Inc. in Burr Ridge, Illinois, United States America, Sweden also intends to do one separate experiment with one instrument penetration we have in Swedish/Finnish BWR's. Other parts of the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project, such as support to level 2 studies, the research at Royal Institute of Technology and participation in international programs, such as Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, Advanced Containment Experiments and PHEBUS will be briefly described in the paper

  20. Educational project on risk communication and reduction of the radon exposure in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrady, J.; Guhr, A.; Uhlig, R.

    2009-01-01

    The radon exposure in buildings is supposed to be the most important risk factor of lung cancer. In Saxony about 800 000 persons live in apartments with high radon exposure. The study discusses the effects of an educational project to communicate the facts on radon exposure in buildings and to develop risk awareness and individual initiatives to reduce the radon concentration. The project includes support and encouragement with respect of preventive and protective measures to improve the individual situation. Further items cover requirements for control and quantification of intervention impacts, development and optimization of specific strategies for a permanent risk communication in schools. Results of the pilot study are summarized.

  1. Mixtures of beta distributions in models of the duration of a project affected by risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gładysz, Barbara; Kuchta, Dorota

    2017-07-01

    This article presents a method for timetabling a project affected by risk. The times required to carry out tasks are modelled using mixtures of beta distributions. The parameters of these beta distributions are given by experts: one corresponding to the duration of a task in stable conditions, with no risks materializing, and the other corresponding to the duration of a task in the case when risks do occur. Finally, a case study will be presented and analysed: the project of constructing a shopping mall in Poland.

  2. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

  3. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  4. The analysis of financial risk management application for NPP project in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imam Bastori; Moch Djoko Birmano

    2012-01-01

    NPP Project is one of full dynamic, risky and challenging business. Application of financial risk management t in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) project becomes one alternative to be considered carefully. This paper explains an analysis to make a decision in the risk management application so that it can be applied in the NPP's construction in Indonesia. As case study, is NPP of conventional PWR type of class 1150 MWe. To calculate the economics and financing of NPP is used Spreadsheet INOVASI, further the decision of financial risk management were analyzed using a Model of Cash Flow Adjustment, which developed by Richard Fairchild. The analysis showed that the Method of Cash Flow Adjustment developed by Richard Fairchild is better than the method of NPV Adjustment on a NPP project, because it have included the aspects of financial risk management. NPP project can only be executed if the NPV 2 0 and decision to execute the financial risk management should be based on NPVrm > NPV. The application of financial risk management in NPP project is not needed if an insurance premium more expensive than all costs of financial distress, unless the insurance company can give discount of at least 20%. (author)

  5. Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

    2016-05-01

    The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

  6. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  7. Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

    2017-04-15

    This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  9. Simulated Annealing Genetic Algorithm Based Schedule Risk Management of IT Outsourcing Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqiang Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available IT outsourcing is an effective way to enhance the core competitiveness for many enterprises. But the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project may cause enormous economic loss to enterprise. In this paper, the Distributed Decision Making (DDM theory and the principal-agent theory are used to build a model for schedule risk management of IT outsourcing project. In addition, a hybrid algorithm combining simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA is designed, namely, simulated annealing genetic algorithm (SAGA. The effect of the proposed model on the schedule risk management problem is analyzed in the simulation experiment. Meanwhile, the simulation results of the three algorithms GA, SA, and SAGA show that SAGA is the most superior one to the other two algorithms in terms of stability and convergence. Consequently, this paper provides the scientific quantitative proposal for the decision maker who needs to manage the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project.

  10. How to manage project opportunity and risk why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Ward, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enl

  11. Risk analysis for construction and operation of gas pipeline projects in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubin, S.; Mubin, G.

    2008-01-01

    In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed. Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices are also important risk factors. All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks. (author)

  12. RIBA Project - Risk-Informed approach for In-Service Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. Project summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidbury, D.; Smith, G.

    2001-12-01

    The need for a European review of a Risk-Informed Approach for In-Service Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components (RIBA) was identified in 1998. This was as a priority item in the programme of activities conducted in the framework of the Council Resolutions of 22 July 1975 and of 18 June 1992 on the Technological Problems of Nuclear Safety. The RIBA Project was established in November 1999 as a 24-month Study Contract funded by the European Commission within the frame of the former DG XI WGCS (Working Group on Codes and Standards). The Study Contract was subsequently managed for the EC by DG TREN. The participants in RIBA were Serco Assurance (project coordinator), Ringhals AB, EDF, Tecnatom SA and Westinghouse Electric Europe. The work is presented in a summary report with the detailed results contained in three companion reports as follows: main conclusions and recommendations, Review of Existing Risk-Informed Methodologies, A Comparative Study of Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection Applications, Conclusions and Recommendations for Risk-Informed in-service inspection methodology applied to Nuclear Power Plants in Europe. (author)

  13. EU's CO2 trade a high risk project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellander, Dag

    2003-01-01

    The uncertainty about the planned CO 2 trade of the European Union (EU) is very great. For the possible buyers in this politically created market the risks may be great and difficult to assess. The most effective way of forcing a reduction of emissions is trading emission licences. But this requires taking a stand on issues of very unpleasant nature. And the Kyoto protocol evades these questions, it is a thin document right from the beginning. Trade in emission licences is one of the three so-called flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto agreement. The second mechanism is joint implementation in which one industrialized country carries out emission reduction actions in another industrialized country. The third is the mechanism of clean development, in which one industrialized country takes remedial actions in a developing country. It is unclear how these mechanisms are to act in accordance with each other, both in the Kyoto Protocol and on the level of the EU. The biggest and most fundamental uncertainty, both on the EU and global levels, relates to the fact that the partners have not decided how to define the right of ownership of emissions of a certain size

  14. Projections in the national mining development plan (NMDP using @risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Franco-Sepúlveda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La industria de la minería en Colombia ha alcanzado una importa nte posición en el mercado internacional y en la economía nacio nal; por esto, con el fin de describir la dinámica del mercado minero, analiza r la estructura de la industria y hacer una comparación con las estimaciones de producción de minerales dadas a conocer en el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo Minero (PNDM de la Unidad de Planeación Minero-Ener gética (UPME, se implementará la herramienta @Risk. Esta herramienta y la metodología que se define en el presente artículo, permite incluir la incertidumbre y el riesgo en las estimaciones, en una simulació n que genera una proyección con un horizonte temporal al año 20 19 de la extracción histórica (teniendo en cuenta la extracción entre lo s años 1970 al 2013 de carbón, oro y calizas, construyendo mod elos alternativos que pueden replicarse por la institucionalidad minera en los fu turos PNDM y en sus respectivas actualizaciones.

  15. Managing Pre-Construction and Construction Risks on Project Sites in Abuja-Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimoh R.A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Managing risks in construction projects has been acknowledged as a key direction process for the purposes of attaining the project goal in terms of time, cost, quality, safety, and environmental sustainability. Hence, the paper evaluated pre-construction and construction risks on active project sites in Abuja-Nigeria. This was achieved using survey method through the self-administration of 35 questionnaires to the professionals handling the 35 identified projects being undertaking at that time. Results showed that errors and omissions in design and improperly defined project scope had mean score values of 3.03 and 2.54, respectively, were the construction risks most experienced by the professionals during pre-construction. On the other hand, fluctuation in market prices and delays with mean score values of 3.14 and 2.74, respectively, were the construction risks experienced by the professionals during the construction phase of the projects. It is recommended that procurement methods such as construction management should be adopted and stakeholders should keep to their own side of the bargain to avoid unnecessary delays.

  16. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  17. Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudius A. Peleskei

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

  18. Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzulāns Juris

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

  19. RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Milena CHOLES ARVILLA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based upon the research undertaken for the development of the doctoral thesis “Management of software projects based on object-oriented technology”. The study examines the existing risk management practices commonly used for classic software development. The goal is to integrate the elements of the traditional risk management methodologies to create a new agile risk management methodology. The thesis focuses on techniques that can be easily implemented in extreme programming (XP and SCRUM. This study is motivated by the following research questions: What are the elements of existing quality assurance tools that could meet the principles of agile development? And is it possible to use risk estimation for improving quality in agile projects? The thesis presents a synthesis of the most common risk management techniques, as well as an introduction to agile methods XP and SCRUM. The proposal integrates the concepts of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into the iterative life cycle of an agile software project. The thesis presents a metamodel which integrates the concepts of agile development methodologies: SCRUM and XP with the FMEA concepts for risk quantification. The model was partly implemented into a real development project. Partial results show the improvement in early identification of failures and allowed to reconsider the Sprint plan.

  20. Implementing Brief Interventions in Health Care: Lessons Learned from the Swedish Risk Drinking Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Nilsen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The Risk Drinking Project was a national implementation endeavour in Sweden, carried out from 2004 to 2010, based on a government initiative to give alcohol issues a more prominent place in routine primary, child, maternity and occupational health care. The article describes and analyses the project. Critical factors that were important for the results are identified. The magnitude of the project contributed to its reach and impact in terms of providers’ awareness of the project goals and key messages. The timing of the project was appropriate. The increase in alcohol consumption in Sweden and diminished opportunities for primary prevention strategies since entry to the European Union in 1995 have led to increased expectations for health care providers to become more actively involved in alcohol prevention. This awareness provided favourable conditions for this project. A multifaceted approach was used in the project. Most educational courses were held in workshops and seminars to encourage learning-by-doing. Motivational interviewing was an integral aspect. The concept of risk drinking was promoted in all the activities. Subprojects were tailored to the specific conditions of each respective setting, building on the skills the providers already had to modify existing work practices. Nurses were afforded a key role in the project.

  1. Development of a Blueprint Impact System of the risks on construction projects Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar Kadhim Rasheed

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In Production and Operations Management the specialists have tried to develop a strategy to counter the risks arising from the activities of the organization and of waste of various types and therefore the risk management in the contemporary framework represents a phenomenon of new quality, and can not be this phenomenon to take practical dimensions, but the development of culture of the organization towards the risks and deal with all aspects and paint ways to address them within an integrated program, and requires new skills and systems provide accurate information capable of coordination between the various parties within the organization. The research aims to develop a blue print to analyze the relationship between the impact of risk and stages of implementing of the project and, the effect of risk relationship with the type of contract, and the impact of risks to do with the type of construction works. In this paper a number of risks has been identified that have already occurred from the study of a number of construction projects completed and theoretical studies and interview a number of construction industry experts to determine the extent of the impact of these risks in each of these three axes in construction projects in Iraq for the purpose of responding and management. The study found a set of conclusions such as existing of priority in happiness of risks which proof that there is an relationship between the risks and sort of stage, contract and constructional work. In the light of what has been reached for the purpose of benefiting from the computer automated features a program have been used ( Vanguard Software System to build the decision tree in order to manage the risks according to their priority in happiness.

  2. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

    2015-01-01

    The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

  3. Allocating risk capital for a brownfields redevelopment project under hydrogeological and financial uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Soonyoung; Unger, Andre J A; Parker, Beth; Kim, Taehee

    2012-06-15

    In this study, we defined risk capital as the contingency fee or insurance premium that a brownfields redeveloper needs to set aside from the sale of each house in case they need to repurchase it at a later date because the indoor air has been detrimentally affected by subsurface contamination. The likelihood that indoor air concentrations will exceed a regulatory level subject to subsurface heterogeneity and source zone location uncertainty is simulated by a physics-based hydrogeological model using Monte Carlo realizations, yielding the probability of failure. The cost of failure is the future value of the house indexed to the stochastic US National Housing index. The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with a surcharge to compensate the developer against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty, with the surcharge acting as safety loading reflecting the developers' level of risk aversion. We review five methodologies taken from the actuarial and financial literature to price the risk capital for a highly stylized brownfield redevelopment project, with each method specifically adapted to accommodate our notion of the probability of failure. The objective of this paper is to develop an actuarially consistent approach for combining the hydrogeological and financial uncertainty into a contingency fee that the brownfields developer should reserve (i.e. the risk capital) in order to hedge their risk exposure during the project. Results indicate that the price of the risk capital is much more sensitive to hydrogeological rather than financial uncertainty. We use the Capital Asset Pricing Model to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate to depreciate all costs to present value for the brownfield redevelopment project. A key outcome of this work is that the presentation of our risk capital valuation methodology is sufficiently generalized for application to a wide variety of engineering projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier

  4. Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutomski, Mike

    2005-01-01

    This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

  5. Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangam Shrestha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses significant challenges to hydropower development and management in mountainous basins. This study examined the impact of climate change, and the associated risks, on the energy production of the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project, which is located in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal. The outputs of three GCMs—namely MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M—under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP scenarios were used for the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the basin are projected to increase by 6.33 °C and 3.82 °C, respectively, by 2100. The projected precipitation varies from −8% to +24.8%, which is expected to alter the streamflow by −37.83% to +47% in the future. Based on the streamflow output, the risk for energy production was calculated with respect to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h and 2281 GW h. Using the three GCMs, the risk associated with annual hydropower production under altered runoff was analyzed. The risk percentage in the future periods shows a mild risk varying from 0.69% to 6.63%. MPI-ESM-M GCM projects a higher percentage of risk for energy production during the same future periods, as compared to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h. A mild to moderate risk, ranging from 2.73% to 13.24% can be expected when energy production in the future is compared to the baseline energy production of 2281 GW h.

  6. Balancing risk in regulatory decision making: the Port Granby Project case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, L.; Kleb, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the trade-offs that are routinely considered in regulatory decision making, and the policy basis and methods for making those trade-offs. Regulatory decisions under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA) normally consider potential risks to the environment, human health and safety, if a project were to proceed. There is only limited consideration, under such circumstances, of the risks to the environment, human health and safety if the project were not to proceed. The focus is on the potential adverse effects of the project, except in the event of an emergency, where the focus shifts to the economic and other beneficial effects. The Port Granby long-term low-level radioactive waste management project is a project to clean up and provide appropriate local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the Port Granby, Ontario area. Approximately 0.4 M m 3 of LLRW, presently located at the Port Granby Waste Management Facility, is to be transported to a newly constructed long-term waste management facility ~700 m north of the bluff face where the facility is located. Accordingly, the project is subject to environmental assessment and licensing processes under the CEAA and the NSCA, respectively. While the Port Granby Project does not represent an emergency situation, it does represent a situation that could result in a significant degree of environmental risk if the project were not to proceed. Over the course of the various studies that have been undertaken at the Waste Management Facility, it has become apparent that the facility is subject to erosion and gullying along the bluff face. The potential for the leaching of contaminants from the existing facility and the erosion of the Lake Ontario bluffs are recognized as ongoing risks that will continue and potentially worsen if the project does not proceed. The economic and other considerations that

  7. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

  8. Survey on the Technology Readiness Level of R and D projects for a Technical Risk Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, S. J.; Chang, J.; Lee, K. Y.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of applying the Technology Readiness Level/Design Readiness Level (TRL/DRL) in technical risk management is to make technology assessments, and improve communication among researchers with a consistent, systematic technology readiness Technical risk management for the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project was adopted of experience assessed with Delphi Method from the Next Generation Nuclear Plant(NGNP)of the DOE to improve the poor contactor management of the major projects which experienced cost increases and/or schedule delays in long-term. In the current phase that is doing key technology research and development projects, the technology readiness level was reviewed and applied to the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project to prepare an input for the next design phases. Based on the previous works, pre-conceptional design and key R and D works for the Nuclear Hydrogen Design and Development(NHDD) projects and the results of key research and development projects, the TRL was applied to assess the levels and compared with the advanced design stages of Westinghouse Electric Co. With this process, several issues were identified to apply the design and technology level to the familiar steps of design process and research and development projects. In order to resolve these issues, it is needed to systematically adjust and modify the current process with TRLs

  9. Goals and activities of the JICA technical cooperation project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vacareanu, R.; Kato, H.

    2007-01-01

    Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project on Reduction of Seismic Risk for Buildings and Structures started in Romania on October 1, 2002. The aim of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of earthquake disaster related activities in Romania. The Project approval is the result of four years of intensive efforts made by professionals from Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest (UTCB), Ministry of Transport, Constructions and Tourism (MTCT), Romania, National Building Research Institute (INCERC) Bucharest, JICA, Building Research Institute (BRI), Tsukuba, and National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management (NILIM), Tsukuba, Japan. The duration of the Project is five years. The implementing agency is the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) as a public institution of national interest under MTCT. The activities are carried out by NCSRR in partnership with UTCB and INCERC. During the Project period, 29 young Romanian engineers were trained in Japan, 7 Japanese experts and 37 Japanese experts worked for long-term and short-term, respectively in Romania. Equipment for seismic instrumentation, dynamic characterization of soil and structural testing rising up approximately to 260 million yens (i.e. 2.17 million USD) were donated by JICA to Romania, through NCSRR. The total cost of the Project is roughly 7 million USD. The paper describes the main activities and results of the Project until the JICA Final Evaluation Mission (March 2007). (authors)

  10. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  11. Performance Risks Allocation in Bot Infrastructure in Nigeria: A Case Study of Lagos Infrastructure Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanni Gabriel A.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed allocation, criteria and allotment effectiveness of performance risks in Build- Operate-Transfer (BOT transportation infrastructure in Nigeria using Lagos Infrastructure Project (LIP as a case study. LIP is the only BOT-procured tolled road that has attained ‘operate’ stage of BOT cycle in Nigeria. It revealed that more operating risks were actually allocated to the concessionaire than the grantor and most of the risks were preferred retained by the allottee. Significant fraction of the risks was effectively allocated between the concessionaire and grantor except those that involve close interface between participants. While grantor rated nine risks high and seven risks very high; the concessionaire assessed nine risks to be high and five risks to be very high; the grantor rated the effectiveness level to be seventy three per cent and the concessionaire assessed it to be sixty four per cent. The study recommended that the evolving knowledge from Lagos Infrastructure Project (LIP should be documented to guide future BOT transactions in Nigeria.

  12. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT AUTOMATION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS BASED ОN FUZZY INFERENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Zubkova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Application suitability for one of the intelligent methods for risk management of software projects has been shown based on the review of existing algorithms for fuzzy inference in the field of applied problems. Information sources in the management of software projects are analyzed; major and minor risks are highlighted. The most critical parameters have been singled out giving the possibility to estimate the occurrence of an adverse situations (project duration, the frequency of customer’s requirements changing, work deadlines, experience of developers’ participation in such projects and others.. The method of qualitative fuzzy description based on fuzzy logic has been developed for analysis of these parameters. Evaluation of possible situations and knowledge base formation rely on a survey of experts. The main limitations of existing automated systems have been identified in relation to their applicability to risk management in the software design. Theoretical research set the stage for software system that makes it possible to automate the risk management process for software projects. The developed software system automates the process of fuzzy inference in the following stages: rule base formation of the fuzzy inference systems, fuzzification of input variables, aggregation of sub-conditions, activation and accumulation of conclusions for fuzzy production rules, variables defuzzification. The result of risk management automation process in the software design is their quantitative and qualitative assessment and expert advice for their minimization. Practical significance of the work lies in the fact that implementation of the developed automated system gives the possibility for performance improvement of software projects.

  14. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay; Trebukhin Anatoliy; Shoshinov Vitaly

    2017-01-01

    This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment projec...

  15. Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

    OpenAIRE

    TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

  16. RIMAP demonstration project. Risk-based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Buck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic, M.

    2004-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry (2000)] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM, Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: - development (RTD); - demonstration (DEMO): - thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: - identification of critical components; - application of a multilevel risk analysis (...from 'screening' to 'detailed analysis'); - determination of PoF (Probability of Failure); - determination of CoF (Consequence of Failure); - optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. From our experience with the application of the RIMAP methodology the following conclusions can be drawn: The use of risk-based methods in inspection and maintenance of piping systems in power plants gives transparency to the decision making process and gives an optimized maintenance policy based on current state of the components. The results of the work clearly show the power of the proposed method for concentration on critical items: out of 64 monitored components 5 were selected for intermediate analysis and only 1 for the detailed analysis (probabilistic high temperature fracture mechanics)

  17. Review and Necessity of Recognizing Risk Management in Civil Projects and Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    VOSOUGHI, Pouyan; VOSOUGHI, Vandad

    2015-01-01

    Proper risk management is the reason for which risk (and its various types) is assigned to that section that is able to manage it in the best way but is the section which is able to manage the risk in the best way the same party that has the most effect on the probability of an adverse occurrence or is the section that is able to manage the results in the best way after the adverse occurrence. Now by considering the size, nature and complexity of the projects, the necessity of having the tech...

  18. PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Bremmer, J.; Kenis, M.; Mumford, J.; Petter, F.; Schrader, G.; Bacher, S.; DeBarro, P.; Hulme, P.E.; Karadjova, O.; Oude Lansink, A.; Pruvost, O.; Pysek, P.; Roques, A.; Baranchikov, Y.; Sun, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    PRATIQUE is an EC-funded 7th Framework research project designed to address the major challenges for pest risk analysis (PRA) in Europe. It has three principal objectives: (a) to assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU, (b) to conduct multi-disciplinary

  19. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

  20. Longitudinal Impact of the Project PATHS on Adolescent Risk Behavior: What Happened after Five Years?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. L. Shek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the longitudinal impact of the Project PATHS, a large-scale curriculum-based positive youth development program in Hong Kong, on the development of adolescents’ risk behavior over a period of five years. Using a longitudinal randomized controlled design, eight waves of data were collected from 19 experimental schools in which students participated in the Project PATHS (=2,850 at Wave 8 and 24 control schools without joining the Project PATHS (=3,640 at Wave 8. At each wave, students responded to measures assessing their current risk behaviors, including delinquency, use of different types of drug, and their intentions of participating in risk behaviors in the future. Results demonstrated that adolescents receiving the program exhibited significantly slower increases in delinquent behaviors and substance use as compared to the control participants. During two years after the completion of the program, differences in youth risk behaviors in the two groups still existed. These results suggest that the Project PATHS has long-term effect in preventing adolescent problem behavior through promoting positive youth development.

  1. Engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal projects of sudden water pollution incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Bin; Jiang, Jiping; Liu, Rentao; Khan, Afed Ullah; Wang, Peng

    2017-06-01

    Without an engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal in response to sudden water pollution incidents, responders are prone to be challenged during emergency decision making. To address this gap, the concept and framework of emergency disposal engineering risks are reported in this paper. The proposed risk index system covers three stages consistent with the progress of an emergency disposal project. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), a logical and diagrammatic method, was developed to evaluate the potential failure during the process of emergency disposal. The probability of basic events and their combination, which caused the failure of an emergency disposal project, were calculated based on the case of an emergency disposal project of an aniline pollution incident in the Zhuozhang River, Changzhi, China, in 2014. The critical events that can cause the occurrence of a top event (TE) were identified according to their contribution. Finally, advices on how to take measures using limited resources to prevent the failure of a TE are given according to the quantified results of risk magnitude. The proposed approach could be a potential useful safeguard for the implementation of an emergency disposal project during the process of emergency response.

  2. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same

  3. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  4. Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A; Neilands, Torsten B

    The massively disproportionate impact of America's prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man's release from prison. We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners' influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration.

  5. Common risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in Palestine: Contractors’ perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction sector is one of the key economic sectors and is the main force motivating the Palestinian national economy. However, it suffers from number of problems that affect time, cost and quality performances. This study aims at identifying the common risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 45 factors that might cause delays of road construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered factors in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in Palestine are: financial status of the contractors, payments delay by the owner, political situation, segmentation of the West Bank, poor communication between construction parties, lack of equipment efficiency, and high competition in bids.

  6. Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

    2012-04-01

    The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which

  7. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  8. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  9. Selection of Investment Projects by Monte Carlo Method in Risk Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Monte Carlo method (also known as the Monte Carlo simulation was proposed by Nicholas Metropolis, S. Ulam and Jhon Von Neiman in 50-th years of the past century. The method can be widely applied to analysis of investment projects due to the advantages recognized both by practitioners and the academic community. The balance model of a project with discounted financial flows has been implemented for Microsoft Excel and Google Docs spread-sheet solutions. The Monte Carlo method for project with low and high correlated net present value (NPV parameters in the environment of the electronic tables of MS Excel/Google Docs. A distinct graduation of risk was identified. A necessity of account of correlation effects and the use of multivariate imitation during the project selection has been demonstrated.

  10. The Process of Risk Management for a Project to Extract Shale Gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2014-07-01

    deal. Communication between stake holders throughout the process is a critical element in risk management. Decisions regarding risk issues must strike a balance between the technical aspects of them and the social and moral consequences of the project. (Author)

  11. The Process of Risk Management for a Project to Extract Shale Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2014-01-01

    deal. Communication between stake holders throughout the process is a critical element in risk management. Decisions regarding risk issues must strike a balance between the technical aspects of them and the social and moral consequences of the project. (Author)

  12. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated. The research has consist of two main parts firstly have included a review of the most important concepts of total quality management in addition to the concept of risk analysis and management in construction projects and how to apply the concept of total quality management in the risk analysis and management. Second part included the practical part of the research, which was open and closed questionnaire for experts in the construction industry to obtain required informations for the application of total quality management requirements in risk management in construction projects in Iraq. One of the main findings of the research is that top management support has a high impact on risk management in addition to continuous improvement, training and education, while the participation of all employees in the organization and constant stimulation and focusing on the customer as one of the total quality management requirements had a moderate impact on risk management.

  13. The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lüthi, Sonja; Wüstenhagen, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    Managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to make an essential contribution, but due to relatively high cost, its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy, notably feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs have been implemented in various countries, but with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed PV capacity. Previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness. This paper suggests that project developers who make a decision between PV investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed-in tariff-induced returns against a set of policy risks, and choose the country with the most favorable risk-return profile. This model is empirically tested by a stated preference survey among European PV project developers, consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors. The findings demonstrate that risk matters in PV policy design, and that a “price tag” can be attached to specific policy risks, such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap. Governments can build on these empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private PV investment, while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk. - Highlights: ► This study is based on 1575 choice and rating decisions made by 63 European PV project developers. ► This study confirms importance of “non-economic” barriers to deployment of renewable energy. ► This study measures “price of policy risk”, i.e. investors' willingness-to-accept certain policy risks.

  14. MANAGEMENT OF TRANSURANIC (TRU) WASTE RETRIEVAL PROJECT RISKS SUCCESSES IN THE STARTUP OF THE HANFORD 200 AREA TRU WASTE RETRIEVAL PROJECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GREENWLL, R.D.

    2005-01-01

    A risk identification and mitigation method applied to the Transuranic (TRU) Waste Retrieval Project performed at the Hanford 200 Area burial grounds is described. Retrieval operations are analyzed using process flow diagramming. and the anticipated project contingencies are included in the Authorization Basis and operational plans. Examples of uncertainties assessed include degraded container integrity, bulged drums, unknown containers, and releases to the environment. Identification and mitigation of project risks contributed to the safe retrieval of over 1700 cubic meters of waste without significant work stoppage and below the targeted cost per cubic meter retrieved. This paper will be of interest to managers, project engineers, regulators, and others who are responsible for successful performance of waste retrieval and other projects with high safety and performance risks

  15. Probability-of-success studies for geothermal projects: from subsurface data to geological risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Sandra; Pierau, Roberto; Wirth, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, the development of geothermal plants in Germany has increased significantly due to a favorable political setting and resulting financial incentives. However, most projects are developed by local communities or private investors, which cannot afford a project to fail. To cover the risk of total loss if the geothermal well should not provide the energy output necessary for an economically viable project, investors try to procure insurances for this worst case scenario. In order to issue such insurances, the insurance companies insist on so called probability-of-success studies (POS studies), in which the geological risk for not achieving the necessary temperatures and/or flow rates for an economically successful project is quantified. Quantifying the probability of reaching a minimum temperature, which has to be defined by the project investors, is relatively straight forward as subsurface temperatures in Germany are comparatively well known due tens of thousands of hydrocarbon wells. Moreover, for the German Molasse Basin a method to characterize the hydraulic potential of a site based on pump test analysis has been developed and refined in recent years. However, to quantify the probability of reaching a given flow rate with a given drawdown is much more challenging in areas where pump test data are generally not available (e.g. the North German Basin). Therefore, a new method based on log and core derived porosity and permeability data was developed to quantify the geological risk of reaching a determined flow rate in such areas. We present both methods for POS studies and show how subsurface data such as pump tests or log and core measurements can be used to predict the chances of a potential geothermal project from a geological point of view.

  16. Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

  17. Leakage Risk Assessment for a Potential CO2 Storage Project in Saskatchewan, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houseworth, J.E.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Mazzoldi, A.; Gupta, A.K.; Nicot, J.-P.; Bryant, S.L.

    2011-05-01

    A CO{sub 2} sequestration project is being considered to (1) capture CO{sub 2} emissions from the Consumers Cooperative Refineries Limited at Regina, Saskatchewan and (2) geologically sequester the captured CO{sub 2} locally in a deep saline aquifer. This project is a collaboration of several industrial and governmental organizations, including the Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC), Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC), SaskEnvironment Go Green Fund, SaskPower, CCRL, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Enbridge. The project objective is to sequester 600 tonnes CO{sub 2}/day. Injection is planned to start in 2012 or 2013 for a period of 25 years for a total storage of approximately 5.5 million tonnes CO{sub 2}. This report presents an assessment of the leakage risk of the proposed project using a methodology known as the Certification Framework (CF). The CF is used for evaluating CO{sub 2} leakage risk associated with geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as brine leakage risk owing to displacement and pressurization of brine by the injected CO{sub 2}. We follow the CF methodology by defining the entities (so-called Compartments) that could be impacted by CO{sub 2} leakage, the CO{sub 2} storage region, the potential for leakage along well and fault pathways, and the consequences of such leakage. An understanding of the likelihood and consequences of leakage forms the basis for understanding CO{sub 2} leakage risk, and forms the basis for recommendations of additional data collection and analysis to increase confidence in the risk assessment.

  18. Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2010-01-01

    The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this

  19. Overview of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2010-01-01

    Solar particle events (SPEs) pose the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to astronauts, because organ doses from large SPEs may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model of Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with an output data processing module of SUMDOSE, and a probabilistic model of acute radiation risk (ARR). BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation, and the risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, these response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in a user friendly way. The GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. Assessment of astronauts organ doses and ARS from the exposure to historically large SPEs is in support of mission design and operation planning to avoid ARS and stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept for future integration of other risk projection models for human space applications. We present an overview of the ARRBOD GUI product, which is a new self-contained product, for the major components of the overall system, subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces.

  20. From volatility to value: analysing and managing financial and performance risk in energy savings projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, Evan; Kromer, Steve; Weiss, Gary; Mathew, Paul A.

    2006-01-01

    Many energy-related investments are made without a clear financial understanding of their values, risks, and volatilities. In the face of this uncertainty, the investor-such as a building owner or an energy service company-will often choose to implement only the most certain and thus limited energy-efficiency measures. Conversely, commodities traders and other sophisticated investors accustomed to evaluating investments on a value, risk, and volatility basis often overlook energy-efficiency investments because risk and volatility information are not provided. Fortunately, energy-efficiency investments easily lend themselves to such analysis using tools similar to those applied to supply side risk management. Accurate and robust analysis demands a high level of understanding of the physical aspects of energy-efficiency, which enables the translation of physical performance data into the language of investment. With a risk management analysis framework in place, the two groups-energy-efficiency experts and investment decision-makers-can exchange the information they need to expand investment in demand-side energy projects. In this article, we first present the case for financial risk analysis in energy efficiency in the buildings sector. We then describe techniques and examples of how to identify, quantify, and manage risk. Finally, we describe emerging market-based opportunities in risk management for energy efficiency

  1. Relacionamento entre gerenciamento de risco e sucesso de projetos Relationship between risk management and project success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roque Rabechini Junior

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa feita em quatro estados brasileiros sobre adoção de práticas de gerenciamento de riscos em projetos com diferentes tipos de complexidade. A pesquisa de campo envolveu 415 projetos de nove setores econômicos distintos. O material obtido foi coletado por meio de questionário aplicado em gerentes e membros de equipe de projetos. Os resultados mostraram que há impacto significativo e positivo da adoção de práticas de gerenciamento de riscos no sucesso dos projetos. Mostrou também que há dependência entre percepção de sucesso e presença/ausência de gerente de risco, havendo impacto positivo da presença do gerente de risco no sucesso dos projetos. As principais limitações da pesquisa concernem às escolhas metodológicas de amostra não probabilística, empregando questionário baseado na percepção dos respondentes. O trabalho originalmente integra a visão de práticas de gerenciamento de riscos com resultados em projetos, servindo de base para novos estudos em outros setores e áreas de conhecimento de projetos.This paper presents the results of an investigation in four Brazilian States on the adoption of Risk Management practices in projects with different complexity levels. The field research involved 415 projects from nine different economic sectors. Data was gathered through a questionnaire applied to managers and project team members. Results showed that there are significant and positive impacts in the adoption of Risk Management practices on project success. It also showed that there is dependence between perceived success and the presence/absence of a risk manager, i.e., the presence of a risk manager has positive impacts on project success. The major limitation of this study concerns the methodological choice: non-probability sample survey based on respondents perception. The work promotes the integration between Risk Management practices and projects performance

  2. Toward a Stakeholder Perspective on Social Stability Risk of Large Hydraulic Engineering Projects in China: A Social Network Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengqi He

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In China, large hydraulic engineering projects have made a great contribution to social economic development; at the same time, they also lead to social risks that affect social stability. The pluralism of stakeholders in large hydraulic engineering projects and the complex interrelationship among stakeholders are the important factors affecting social stability risk. Previous studies of social stability risk have mainly focused on risk identification and risk assessment, without considering the relationships among stakeholders and their linkages of risks. For large hydraulic engineering projects, this paper investigated the relevant risk factors and their interrelationships through a literature review and interviews that represented stakeholder perspectives. The key social stability risk factors were identified based on social network analysis. A multi-channel project financial system, a perfect interest compensation mechanism, an efficient prevention mechanism of group events, and a complete project schedule control system were proposed to mitigate the social stability risks. This study combined stakeholder management with risk management by using social network analysis, providing reference for the social stability risk management of large engineering projects in China.

  3. Assessment of uncertainties in risk analysis of chemical establishments. The ASSURANCE project. Final summary report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, K.; Kozine, Igor; Markert, Frank

    2002-01-01

    and led the comparison of results in order to reveal the causes for differences between the partners' results. The results of the project point to an increased awareness of the potential uncertainties in riskanalyses and highlight a number of important sources of such uncertainties. In the hazard......This report summarises the results obtained in the ASSURANCE project (EU contract number ENV4-CT97-0627). Seven teams have performed risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre at Ispra and RisøNational Laboratory co-ordinated the exercise...

  4. Projective geometry for human motion, with an application to injury risk

    OpenAIRE

    Laurie, Henri; Penne, Rudi

    2004-01-01

    We give an exposition of Plucker vectors for a system of joint axes in projective 3-space. We use Plucker vectors to analyse dependencies among joint axes, and in particular show that two rotational joints rigidly joined by a bar and each with 3 degrees of freedom always forms a 5-dimensional system. We introduce the concept of reduced redundancy in a dependent set of projective Lines, and argue that reduced redundancy in the axes of a body position increases injury risk. We apply this to a s...

  5. Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hateni N.; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2011-01-01

    The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission

  6. The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

  7. Issues and measures in the design process from the perspective of risk management of construction projects. study of power plant construction projects accident cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwahara, Hirohiko; Shiraki, Wataru; Inomo, Hitoshi; Hasegawa, Syuichi

    2015-01-01

    Construction of power plants, foundation work, consisting of a wide variety of construction work, such as plant equipment work. And, civil engineering, technician electrical such as different engineering field, is a comprehensive construction project that works for the design conditions of the structure. However, if the cooperation design conditions is not sufficient, as a construction project, the optimal structures may not be said to have been built. As a result, total cost or increased, including the initial cost of the end construction projects, it is be a cause of the accident. Previous studies, plant equipment construction, is related to safety management and risk of foundation work such as individual construction were many. In this paper, as an example the power plant construction, and performs the following discussion from the point of view of risk management of large-scale construction projects that these individual construction work together with each other. The importance of design conditions cooperation, (1) 'Challenges and countermeasures of ordering method of construction projects', to verify from the (2) 'actually happened substation foundation displacement accident'. And on whether or not the construction project order institutions can be involved in the design from the site preparation stage, we study (3) for 'construction work scope and risk control the construction project ordering institutions to implement' the risk to the natural disaster (earthquake). From these, we describe the challenges and measures in the construction project of the design process. (author)

  8. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  9. The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on off-shore oil platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, Paolo; Basco, Anna; Di Ruocco, Angela; Esposito, Simona; Fusco, Giannetta; Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Mercogliano, Paola; Salzano, Ernesto; Solaro, Giuseppe; Teofilo, Gianvito; Scandone, Paolo; Gasparini, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities - National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk), aims at providing technical support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil platforms. In order to achieve this challenging objective, ARGO brings together climate experts, risk management experts, seismologists, geologists, chemical engineers, earth and coastal observation experts. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore oil platforms in the Italian seas, including extreme events related to climate changes. Furthermore the environmental effect of offshore activities has been investigated, including: changes on seismicity and on the evolution of coastal areas close to offshore platforms. Then a probabilistic multi-risk framework has been developed for the analysis of NA-TECH events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction.

  10. Risk evaluation and mitigation in domestic photovoltaic projects: According to the UK climate polcy

    OpenAIRE

    Atigeh Chian, Milan

    2013-01-01

    2013 dissertation for MSc in Project Management. Selected by academic staff as a good example of a masters level dissertation. \\ud \\ud In the wake of financial crisis, many investors are faced with the uncertainty\\ud in investment decision as a result of the volatility in the market. In an\\ud attempt to reduce this risk of uncertainties, investors have therefore\\ud provided different method of risk management.\\ud Past studies has shown the importance of fund managers in the management\\ud of f...

  11. Projected lifetime cancer risks from exposure to regional radioactive fallout in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, Charles E; Bouville, André; Apostoaei, Iulian; Simon, Steven L

    2010-08-01

    Radioactive fallout from nuclear test detonations during 1946-1958 at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls in the Marshall Islands (MI) exposed populations living elsewhere in the MI archipelago. A comprehensive analysis, presented in seven companion papers, has produced estimates of tissue-specific radiation absorbed dose to MI residents at all historically inhabited atolls from internal (ingested) and external irradiation resulting from exposure to radioactive fallout, by calendar year, and by age of the population at time of exposure. The present report deals, for the first time, with the implications of these doses for cancer risk among exposed members of the MI population. Radiation doses differed by geographic location and year of birth, and radiation-related cancer risk depends upon age at exposure and age at observation for risk. Using dose-response models based on committee reports published by the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health, we project that, during the lifetimes of members of the MI population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from weapons test fallout deposited during the testing period (1948-1958) and from residual radioactive sources during the subsequent 12 y (1959-1970), perhaps 1.6% (with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% to 3.4%) of all cancers might be attributable to fallout-related radiation exposures. By sub-population, the projected proportion of cancers attributable to radiation from fallout from all nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands is 55% (28% to 69%) among 82 persons exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae, 10% (2.4% to 22%) for 157 persons exposed on Utrik, and 2.2% (0.5% to 4.8%) and 0.8% (0.2% to 1.8%), respectively, for the much larger populations exposed in mid-latitude locations including Kwajalein and in southern locations including Majuro. By cancer type, point estimates of attributable risk varied, by location, between 12% and 95% for thyroid cancer, between 2% and 78% for leukemia, and

  12. Decision making and risk analysis during the development of wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanhaesebroeck, M.

    2004-11-01

    This study aims at determining a methodology or criteria which can be used as decision making tools for the development of wind power projects and for the objective profitability comparison between several projects. In the first part, the different steps of the development of a wind power project in France are described. For each step, the cost of the studies, the related approaches and the main risks of abandonment are precised. The potential time drifts in the planning of the project are identified on the basis of the experience feedback of the first years of wind power development in France. In the second part, the possibilities of using classical investment choice techniques are analyzed. The characteristics having more impact on the project profitability are identified. In the third part, the sequential models with increasing information are used to evaluate a project, whatever its level of development. Finally, a concrete case is considered to see how these models can be used as decision making tools during key steps of wind farms development. (J.S.)

  13. The Impact of Project Role on Perceptions of Risk and Performance in Information Technology Software Development: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okongo, James

    2014-01-01

    The failure rate of information technology (IT) development projects is a significant concern for today's organizations. Perceptions of IT project risk and project performance have been identified as important factors by scholars studying the topic, and Wallace, Keil, and Rai (2004a) developed a survey instrument to measure how dimensions of…

  14. Risk management of energy efficiency projects in the industry - sample plant for injecting pulverized coal into the blast furnaces

    OpenAIRE

    Jovanović Filip P.; Berić Ivana M.; Jovanović Petar M.; Jovanović Aca D.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses the applicability of well-known risk management methodologies in energy efficiency projects in the industry. The possibilities of application of the selected risk management methodology are demonstrated within the project of the plants for injecting pulverized coal into blast furnaces nos. 1 and 2, implemented by the company US STEEL SERBIA d.o.o. in Smederevo. The aim of the project was to increase energy efficiency through the reductio...

  15. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  16. The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, F.J.; Carvalho, L.; Costa, I.C.; Iria, J.P.; Bodet, J.-M.; Jacinto, G.; Lecocq, A.; Roessner, J.; Caillard, B.; Salvi, O.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life cycle. Afterwards, the hazards identified were mapped in the different stages of the battery life cycle and two analyses were performed for each stage: an internal problem analysis and an external peril analysis. For both, the dangerous phenomena and the undesirable events resulting from each hazard was evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence and severity. Then, a risk assessment was carried out according to a predefined risk matrix and a preliminary set of risk mitigation measures were proposed to reduce their probability of occurrence and/or their severity level. The results obtained show that it is possible to reduce the probability of occurrence/severity of all the risks associated to the battery life cycle to acceptable or tolerable levels. - Highlights: • Methodology for a detailed risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries. • Various hazards and dangerous situations are analysed with high detail. • Useful information on how to prevent or manage the undesired events is provided. • Measures to reduce probability of occurrence/severity of the risks are presented

  17. Natural gas projects in the developing world: An empirical evaluation of merits, obstacles, and risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mor, Amit

    financial profitability of a project. Other factors that explained private sector participation and the ability of the private-sector sponsor to secure financing for a project were: (1) the political risk associated with the project, (2) the foreign exchange constraint associated with the project, and (3) whether the project was domestic or export-oriented.

  18. The Swiss Virtual Campus Project NAHRIS: Experiences from a Multidisciplinary E-Learning Project in the Natural Hazard and Risk Management Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lienert, Christophe; Bischof, Nicole; Hurni, Lorenz

    2009-01-01

    The overall goal of the Swiss Virtual Campus project Dealing with Natural Hazards and Risk (NAHRIS) is to create a common educational course program that compiles the most recent knowledge in the field of natural hazards and risk management. Several higher education institutes from all parts of Switzerland were involved in the realization of this…

  19. Assessing reservoir performance risk in CO{sub 2} storage projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowden, A.R. [URS Corp., San Francisco, CA (United States); Rigg, A. [CRC for Greenhouse Gas Technologies, Canberra (Australia)

    2005-07-01

    One of the main issues for researchers involved with geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) has been the development of a proper methodology to assess and compare alternative CO{sub 2} injection projects on the basis of risk. Consideration needs to be given to technical aspects, such as the risk of leakage and the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, as well as less tangible aspects such as the value and safety of geological storage of CO{sub 2}, and potential impacts on the community and environment. The Geological Disposal of Carbon Dioxide (GEODISC), was a research program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre which identified 56 potential environmentally sustainable sites for CO{sub 2} injection (ESSCIs) within Australia. Several studies were carried out, involving detailed evaluation of the suitability of 4 selected sites, including Dongara, Petrel, Gippsland and Carnarvon. The GEODISC program included a risk assessment research module which required a complete and quantified risk assessment of CO{sub 2} injection as a storage option. Primary goals were to assess the risk of leakage, to assess the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, and to assess negative consequences to facilitate comparison of alternative sites. This paper discussed the background and risk assessment model. Key performance indicators (KPIs) were also developed to address the purpose of risk assessment. It was concluded that the RISQUE method is an appropriate approach and that potential injection projects can be measured against six KPIs including containment; effectiveness; self-funding potential; wider community benefits; community safety and community amenity. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs.

  20. Estimating NOA Health Risks from Selected Construction Activities at the Calaveras Dam Replacement Project (CDRP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    The CDRP is a major construction project involving up to 400 workers using heavy earth moving equipment, blasting, drilling, rock crushing, and other techniques designed to move 7 million yards of earth. Much of this material is composed of serpentinite, blueschist, and other rocks that contain chrysotile, crocidolite, actinolite, tremolite, and Libby-class amphiboles. To date, over 1,000 personal, work area, and emission inventory related samples have been collected and analyzed by NIOSH 7400, NIOSH 7402, and CARB-AHERA methodology. Data indicate that various CDRP construction activities have the potential to generate significant mineral fibers and structures that could represent elevated on site and off site health risks. This presentation will review the Contractors air monitoring program for this major project, followed by a discussion of predictive methods to evaluate potential onsite and offsite risks. Ultimately, the data are used for planning control strategies designed to achieve a Project Action Level of 0.01 f/cc (one tenth the Cal/OSHA PEL) and risk-based offsite target levels.

  1. Examination of in-service risk management at the level of the draft project for Cigeo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    This document reports the opinion of the IRSN on the issue of in-service risk management as it appears in the draft project of Cigeo. After having recalled the general context of the ASN request for this opinion, and presented the ANDRA file on in-service risk-management of the draft project for Cigeo, this report describes the underground installation and the different flows during the exploitation phase, and recalls the various evolutions of Cigeo general design from the 2009 file to the draft project. The next part reports the examination by the IRSN of the relevance of the in-service safety approach by the ANDRA. The next chapter reports the examination of the risk analysis made by the ANDRA on radioactive material dissemination, fire (protection measures, ventilation control, case of exothermal reactions), explosion, handling, co-activity, as well as ageing and maintenance of storage components, intervention in accidental and incidental situation and possibility of retrieval of waste packages

  2. Achieving Conservation and Equity amidst Extreme Poverty and Climate Risk: The Makira REDD+ Project in Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Brimont

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Achieving forest conservation together with poverty alleviation and equity is an unending challenge in the tropics. The Makira REDD+ pilot project located in northeastern Madagascar is a well-suited case to explore this challenge in conditions of extreme poverty and climatic vulnerability. We assessed the potential effect of project siting on the livelihoods of the local population and which households would be the most strongly impacted by conservation measures. Farmers living in hilly areas must resort to slash-and-burn agriculture (tavy since a combination of topographic and climatic constraints, such as cyclones, makes permanent rice cultivation very difficult. These are the people who suffer most from conservation-related restriction measures. For practical reasons the project, unfortunately, did not target these farmers. The main focus was on communities with a lower cyclonic risk that are able to practice permanent rice agriculture in the lowlands. To reduce deforestation without violating the principles of equity, REDD+ projects in Madagascar need to better target populations facing high climatic risks and invest in efforts to improve the farmers’ agricultural systems.

  3. The KnowRISK project - Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveria, Carlos; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Lopez, Mário; Sousa Silva, Delta; Musacchio, Gemma; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Falsaperla, Susanna; Meroni, Fabrizio; Langer, Horst

    2016-04-01

    Historically, there is a tendency to focus on seismic structural performance of buildings, neglecting the potential for damage of non-structural elements. In particular, non-structural elements of buildings are their architectural parts (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding), electrical and mechanical components (i.e., distribution panels, piping, plumbing), and contents (e.g., furniture, bookcases, computers and desktop equipment). Damage of these elements often contributes significantly to earthquake impacts. In the 1999 Izmit Earthquake, Turkey, 50% of the injuries and 3% of human losses were caused by non-structural failures. In the 2010-2011 Christchurch Earthquakes (New Zealand), 40% of building damage was induced by non-structural malfunctions. Around 70%-85% of construction cost goes into these elements, and their damage can strongly influence the ability of communities to cope with and recover from earthquakes. The project Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements (KnowRISK) aims at facilitating local communities' access to expert knowledge on non-structural seismic protection solutions. The project will study seismic scenarios critical for non-structural damage, produce a portfolio of non-structural protection measures and investigate the level of awareness in specific communities. We will implement risk communication strategies that will take into account the social and cultural background and a participatory approach to raise awareness in local communities. The paradox between the progress of scientific knowledge and the ongoing increase of losses from natural disasters worldwide is a well-identified gap in the UN Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, in which one of the main priorities is the investment on "knowledge use, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience". The KnowRISK is well aligned with these priorities and will contribute to participatory action aimed at: i) transferring expert knowledge

  4. Qualification program of the ASTRID SFR project: definition, methodology and associated risk evaluation and management - 15093

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, G.; Dirat, J.F.; Traina, A.; Christofari, M.

    2015-01-01

    The Preconceptual Design phase of the ASTRID French Sodium Fast Reactor project had the objective to integrate innovative options to meet the requirements of the 4. generation reactors and to comply with the related specifications. It was followed by the conceptual phase studies (AVP2 phase 2013-2015) where some technical options are left opened with an advanced option and a backup alternative. In the same time of the AVP2 phase studies, the qualification program related to ASTRID project was initiated. It consists in collecting the exhaustive list of research/development (R/D) needs and technological demonstration tests to be fulfilled on representative mockup prior to component implementation in the prototype. The ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) objectives are to collect needs expressed by all engineering companies involved in ASTRID, and then to organize the answer to this expression of needs. This significant work of needs compilation has been divided in several tasks, according to the ASTRID project decomposition in the Product Breakdown Structure (PBS). Compilation of needs was jointly performed by engineering company, R/D responsible and coordinated by the ASTRID Qualification project responsible. It was associated with an evaluation of the maturity level of the technical options thanks to a Technological Readiness Level grid (TRL ranking table), an identification of major risks, and an evaluation of the R/D potentiality and associated facility platform. The methodology applied for the ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) is presented. It is explained what methodology was used associated to the TRL process, and how is managed the associated risk analysis evaluation: evaluation of major risks, definition of a risk portfolio and a corresponding Action Plan for risk reduction (synthesized under the REM acronym: Risk Evaluation and Management). This methodology is a mean used to facilitate ASTRID risk-informed decision making, technology qualification and

  5. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  6. Identifying critical nutrient intake in groups at risk of poverty in Europe: the CHANCE project approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

    2014-04-02

    The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project's objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

  7. Risks in major innovation projects, a multiple case study within a world's leading company in the fast moving consumer goods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates which risks characterise radical innovation projects. In-dept case studies were carried out via interviews and a questionnaire. The risk concept applied in this study includes three dimensions: certainty, controllability and impact. Three structural or unambiguous risks were

  8. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

  9. Risk management in the project of implantation of the repository for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria de Fatima B.; Tello, Cledola Cassia O. de; Uemura, George

    2011-01-01

    Project RBMN is part of the Brazilian solution for the storage of radioactive waste generated by the activities of nuclear energy in Brazil. The aim of RBMN is to implement the National Repository to dispose the low and intermediate-level radioactive waste. Risk is a characteristic of all projects, and it is originated from uncertainties, assumptions and the environment of execution of the project. Risk management is the way to monitor systematically these uncertainties and a guaranty that the goals of the project will be attained. A specific methodology for the risk management of the Project RBMN is under development, which integrates models and processes for identification and analysis of risks, reactions, monitoring, control and planning of risk management. This methodology is fundamental and will be of primordial importance for future generations who will be responsible for the operation at final stages, closure and institutional control during the post-closure of the repository. It will provide greater safety to executed processes and safeguarding risks and specific solutions for this enterprise, guaranteeing the safety of the repository in its life cycle, which has a foreseen duration of at least three hundred years. The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary analysis of the opportunities, threats, strong points and weak points identified up to now, that will provide support to implement risk management procedures. The methodology will be based on the PMBOK R - Project Management Board of Knowledge - and will take into consideration the best practices for project management.(author)

  10. Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site http://safeland-fp7.eu/. Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km

  11. Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

    2018-03-01

    Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

  12. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  13. The New York High-Risk Project: social and general intelligence in children at risk for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, S L; Spinelli, S; Rock, D; Roberts, S; Amminger, G P; Erlenmeyer-Kimling, L

    1998-05-04

    Social deficits, as well as low performance on intelligence tests, are known early symptoms of schizophrenia. We studied whether impairment of social intelligence can be detected before the outbreak of the disorder. In the New York High-Risk Project, children at risk for schizophrenia (HRSz) or affective disorder (HRAff) and a normal control group (NC) were studied over the past 26 years. The children are now in mid-adulthood, with known psychiatric outcomes. Developmental and clinical data from childhood can now be related to adulthood diagnoses. We compared mean WISC (or WISC-R) and WAIS (or WAIS-R) scores from childhood and adolescence, and change of IQ, between the risk groups, as well as between the adulthood outcomes. We were specifically interested in the development of social intelligence (the Picture Arrangement and Comprehension subtests). We used logistic regression analyses to generate a model predicting adulthood schizophrenia. IQ at age 9,7 was lower in children with HRSz than with HRAff. Adulthood schizophrenia, compared with major depressive disorder and no psychiatric diagnosis could not be related conclusively to low IQ. This may be a result of the study design, since children with IQ below 70 or behavioral problems were not eligible as study subjects. There was no evidence of lower scores or more decline in social intelligence related to age or group membership (risk or outcome). Subtest-Scatter, a nondirectional measure of the differences between all subtests and Vocabulary, reflecting a lesser difference between crystallized and fluid intelligence, was identified as a significant predictor of adulthood schizophrenia, in the whole group as well as in the HRSz group alone.

  14. Dose and risk assessment approach for the Fernald CERCLA D ampersand D Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Throckmorton, J.D.; Clark, T.R.; Waligora, S.J. Jr.; Haaker, R.F.

    1994-01-01

    At the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) the uranium processing facilities used from the 1952 through 1989 are near or beyond their intended design life. These current conditions present an increasing probability for future releases of hazardous substances to the environment. To support a decision by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to remediate the buildings, a dose and risk assessment was performed to determine the extent of exposure that would be associated with the controlled decontamination and dismantlement (D ampersand D) of the Fernald facilities. A conceptual risk assessment model was developed, with exposure mechanisms and associated pathways for each potential receptor. The three receptor groups were defined as: the remediation workers, other on-site workers (those not performing D ampersand D), and off-site residents. For use in the conceptual model, an airborne source term was developed through process knowledge, other historical information and data, and air sample data from within the facilities. Individual and collective doses and risks were developed for each receptor and for each population group. The risk assessment demonstrated that all exposures resulting from the action would be within the acceptable DOE administrative control level of 2.0 rem per year for occupational workers and the acceptable EPA risk range from 10 -6 to 10 -4 for the general public

  15. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Baxter, S.L.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Anspaugh, L.; Layton, D. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States))

    1993-03-01

    Two important environmental problems at the USDOE Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) facility in Fernald, Ohio were studied in this human health risk assessment. The problems studied were radon emissions from the K-65 waste silos, and offsite contamination of ground water with uranium. Waste from the processing of pitchblende ore is stored in the K-65 silos at the FEMP. Radium-226 in the waste decays to radon gas which escapes to the outside atmosphere. The concern is for an increase in lung cancer risk for nearby residents associated with radon exposure. Monitoring data and a gaussian plume transport model were used to develop a source term and predict exposure and risk to fenceline residents, residents within 1 and 5 miles of the silos, and residents of Hamilton and Cincinnati, Ohio. Two release scenarios were studied: the routine release of radon from the silos and an accidental loss of one silo dome integrity. Exposure parameters and risk factors were described as distributions. Risks associated with natural background radon concentrations were also estimated.

  16. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Baxter, S.L.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C.; Anspaugh, L.; Layton, D.

    1993-03-01

    Two important environmental problems at the USDOE Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) facility in Fernald, Ohio were studied in this human health risk assessment. The problems studied were radon emissions from the K-65 waste silos, and offsite contamination of ground water with uranium. Waste from the processing of pitchblende ore is stored in the K-65 silos at the FEMP. Radium-226 in the waste decays to radon gas which escapes to the outside atmosphere. The concern is for an increase in lung cancer risk for nearby residents associated with radon exposure. Monitoring data and a gaussian plume transport model were used to develop a source term and predict exposure and risk to fenceline residents, residents within 1 and 5 miles of the silos, and residents of Hamilton and Cincinnati, Ohio. Two release scenarios were studied: the routine release of radon from the silos and an accidental loss of one silo dome integrity. Exposure parameters and risk factors were described as distributions. Risks associated with natural background radon concentrations were also estimated

  17. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the South Texas Project nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgardner, J.D.; Nickolaus, J.R.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.

    1993-12-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. South Texas Project was selected as a plant for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by the NRC inspectors in preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk important components at the South Texas Project plant

  18. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  19. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  20. Effect of dietary habits on the risk of metabolic syndrome: Yazd Healthy Heart Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarebanhassanabadi, Mohammadtaghi; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Mirzaei, Masoud; Namayandeh, Seyedeh Mahdieh; Soltani, Mohammad Hossein; Pakseresht, Mohammadreza; Pedarzadeh, Ali; Baramesipour, Zahra; Faraji, Reza; Salehi-Abargouei, Amin

    2018-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) refers to a group of risk factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Dietary habits are among the most important risk factors for MetS. The current study aimed at assessing the effect of dietary habits on the risk of MetS in a 10-year follow-up study in central Iran. Cohort study. Yazd, Iran. Participants aged 20-74 years without any history of MetS, who were originally recruited for Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP) during 2005-2006, were revisited during 2015-2016. At phase I of YHHP, demographic data, anthropometric measurements, five components of MetS, biochemical tests and dietary habits were evaluated; and the same data were collected in phase II. A total of 1092 participants were eligible to be included in the present study. After follow-up, the 10-year cumulative incidence of MetS was 56·1 %. After adjustment for potential confounders, increased risk of MetS (hazard ratio; 95 % CI) was found in those who did not try to control their body weight (1·57; 1·06, 2·35), did not usually eat salad (1·91; 1·22, 3·00) and added salt to their food (1·57, 1·06, 2·33). These associations were stronger in men than in the total population after subgroup analysis, but were not present in women. Dietary habits affect the risk of MetS in the Iranian population. Lifestyle interventions are needed to improve dietary habits to reduce the risk of MetS. Future studies are highly recommended to confirm our results in other populations.

  1. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, K L; Caldeira, K; Orr, J C; Schneider, K

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. (letter)

  2. Fuzzy system for risk analysis in software projects through the attributes of quality standards iso 25000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Sen Shia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available With the growth in demand for products and services in the IT area, companies encounter difficulties in establishing a metric or measure of quality of services to address measurably qualitative values in their planning. In this work fuzzy logic, standard SQuaRE (measurement of the quality of software products, Likertscale, GQM method (Goal-Question-Metric -indicator of quality of Software and the project risk analysis model of Boehm were used to assess the quality of services and decision-making, according to your demand and requests for software development. With the aim of improving the quality in the provision of services, the application is used to integrate the team and follow the life cycle of a project from its initial phase, and to assist in the comparison with the proposed schedule during the requirements elicitation.

  3. Prioritization of Delay Factors for NPP Construction Risk in International Project by Using AHP Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    It is crucial for the nuclear power plant project decision makers and management personnel to identify the actual factors of construction delay and their ranking in order to take preventive actions. NPP project is complex in nature and the construction phase is one of the most key phase which is subject to many factors result from many sources. From experience, nuclear projects have faced challenges similar to other complex mega projects with additional nuclear specific issues and life time cost of nuclear reactor is concentrated upfront as capital cost, and therefore delays in construction may become intolerable in terms of both lost revenues and interest on the capital. Budget over-runs and delays on next generation new build nuclear projects in recent years clearly demonstrate that the nuclear industry continues to repeat its failed management and project control processes of the past. Similar to major infra-structure projects, actual completion times can vary substantially from initial estimates but this uncertainty is too crucial to the nuclear industry due to high levels of capital at risk, for every year a project is delayed the levelized cost of electricity increases by approximately 8-10%. causes of delay, to develop a generalized AHP model for delay factors, and to prioritize the risk in different factors in various levels of construction phase in international turnkey NPP project. This paper describes and prioritizes Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay factor for turnkey international project. This study also determines the different party's importance in percentage behind the construction schedule delay of NPP which constitutes main contractor (28.4%), regulatory authority (27.3%), financial and country factor (23.5%), and utility (20.8%). Decision makers of nuclear industry can understand the significance of different factors on NPP construction phase and they can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected

  4. Prioritization of Delay Factors for NPP Construction Risk in International Project by Using AHP Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun

    2014-01-01

    It is crucial for the nuclear power plant project decision makers and management personnel to identify the actual factors of construction delay and their ranking in order to take preventive actions. NPP project is complex in nature and the construction phase is one of the most key phase which is subject to many factors result from many sources. From experience, nuclear projects have faced challenges similar to other complex mega projects with additional nuclear specific issues and life time cost of nuclear reactor is concentrated upfront as capital cost, and therefore delays in construction may become intolerable in terms of both lost revenues and interest on the capital. Budget over-runs and delays on next generation new build nuclear projects in recent years clearly demonstrate that the nuclear industry continues to repeat its failed management and project control processes of the past. Similar to major infra-structure projects, actual completion times can vary substantially from initial estimates but this uncertainty is too crucial to the nuclear industry due to high levels of capital at risk, for every year a project is delayed the levelized cost of electricity increases by approximately 8-10%. causes of delay, to develop a generalized AHP model for delay factors, and to prioritize the risk in different factors in various levels of construction phase in international turnkey NPP project. This paper describes and prioritizes Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay factor for turnkey international project. This study also determines the different party's importance in percentage behind the construction schedule delay of NPP which constitutes main contractor (28.4%), regulatory authority (27.3%), financial and country factor (23.5%), and utility (20.8%). Decision makers of nuclear industry can understand the significance of different factors on NPP construction phase and they can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected

  5. The role of insurance and risk management in new power plant projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, R.

    1988-01-01

    Insurance, and other risk management techniques, can be used to facilitate the financing and construction of power plant projects. This paper describes certain techniques, then it concentrates on insurance based solutions. The objective of this paper is to point out how the insurance industry can help small power producers. First, the standard insurance coverages will be reviewed. Then coverages that have been specifically designed for the alternative energy, cogeneration and small power producing industries will be explained. Some real life examples will be discussed to show how the coverages really work

  6. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  7. Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located

  8. Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

    2017-01-01

    Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

  9. Risk impact of planned maintenance configuration at South Texas Project Electric Generating Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loh, W.T.; Fleming, K.N.; Grantom, C.R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper is based on a study done for the Houston Lighting and Power Company. The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk impact of planned maintenance configurations at South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). To date, the focus of the STP probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) program has been to analyze risk in terms of estimates of accident frequencies that are expressed on a time-averaged basis. Thus, estimates of quantities such as severe core damage frequency have been made such that the temporal variations of this frequency with changing plant configurations are averaged out over time. The only condition that has been imposed on these estimates is that the plant is initially operating at full power when potential initiating events might occur. (author)

  10. Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

  11. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing and budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project - 59394

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Castillo, Carlos; Huntsman, Julie; Lucek, Heather; Marks, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Faced with the DOE Complex Transformation, NNSA was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming, labor intensive, and inherently introduces bias and unaccounted for aspects of the scheduler or organization in the process. Clearly a tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline optimized project sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). In generating an integrated disposition schedule, each project (including facilities, environmental sites, and remedial action units) was identified, characterized, then ranked relative to other projects. Risk matrices allowed for core project data to be extrapolated into probable contamination levels, relative risks to the public, and other technical and risk parameters to be used in the development of an overall ranking. These matrices ultimately generated a complete data set that were used in the Ranking and Sequencing Model (RSM), commonly referred to as the SUPER model, for its numerous abilities to support D and D planning, prioritization, and sequencing

  12. The Impact of Tax Shocks and Oil Price Volatility on Risk - A Study of North Sea Oilfield Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kretzschmar, Gavin Lee; Moles, Peter

    2006-01-01

    We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a fiscal increase on oilfield projects comprising 73% of UK reserves. Stochastic cash flow at risk models combine market volatility and tax-take at the oilfield level to extend earlier North Sea studies. We demonstrate that a 10% Secondary tax increase in a composite UKCS fiscal...

  13. Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe. PMID:24699195

  14. Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Nikolić

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP. This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

  15. Projection of human immunodeficiency virus among high-risk groups in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Md Nazrul Islam; Shitan, Mahendran

    2013-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) presents a serious healthcare threat to young individuals in Malaysia and worldwide. This study aimed to identify trends in HIV-related risk behaviors among recognized high-risk groups and to estimate HIV transmission up to the year 2015. Data and necessary information were obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia, published reports from the World Health Organization and United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, and other articles. The Estimation and Projection Package was used to estimate HIV transmission. The results of the present study revealed that within the high-risk groups, intravenous drug users (IDUs) had the highest prevalence rate of HIV transmission, followed by patients with sexually transmitted infections (STIs), female sex workers (SWs), and men who have sex with men (MSM). Within these at-risk populations, patients with STIs have the highest prevalence of HIV, followed by IDUs, MSM, and SWs. If the transmission rate continues to increase, the situation will worsen; therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive prevention program to control HIV transmission in Malaysia.

  16. Minimizing Investment Risk of Integrated Rail and Transit-Oriented-Development Projects over Years in a Linear Monocentric City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ding Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rail and transit-oriented-development (TOD projects are simultaneously optimized in this paper, with special consideration given to yearly variation and spatial and temporal correlation of population densities. In the proposed model, the objective is to minimize the investment risk of integrated rail and TOD projects with a given required expected return on investment. The investment risk is optimized based on closed-form solutions of the design variables, including rail line length, the number of TOD projects, and the number of housing units in each TOD project. The closed-form solutions are given explicitly under the assumption of social welfare maximization. It is found that underestimation exists for rail and TOD projects without consideration of the correlation of spatial and temporal population densities. TOD projects can greatly improve the return on investment of the rail operator. A numerical example is also presented.

  17. 工程项目的融资风险管理研究%Financing risk management research project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王永嘉; 陈璐

    2014-01-01

    The project financing risk management is a very important aspect of project management,in order to strengthen the management of the project financing risk,the paper detailed the financing risk management process describes the project,and the risk financing process analyzed simultaneously to find the financing process problems,and for the emergence of the problem,a project to promote the development of the main financing risk management measures,thus contributing to strengthen risk management and financing of the project.%工程项目的融资风险管理是工程项目管理的一个非常重要的方面,为了加强对工程项目融资风险的管理,本文详细的介绍工程项目的融资风险管理过程,并对融资过程中的风险进行了分析,同时找出了融资过程中出现的问题,并针对出现的问题,提出了促进工程项目融资风险管理发展的主要对策。

  18. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  19. A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

    2009-12-01

    VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

  20. Risk control in energy saving projects; Control de riesgo en los proyectos de ahorro de energia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, CA (United States)

    2005-10-15

    Since one of the restrictive problems when investing in energy saving is the uncertainty of obtaining the planed savings, a technique in the risk handling for energy efficiency projects, called Insurance for the Energy Saving (IES) is presented. IES economically stimulates those who implement projects for energy saving so they go beyond the normal measures and really obtain significant saving levels, thus contributing to the fulfillment of national objectives in energy saving. In order to reduce the risk of low performance in energy caused by saving projects there exist the international performance measurement and the protocol of investment (IMPVP) as well as diagnoses and starting processes, whereas in order to transfer the financial risk that a saving project represents, mechanisms such as FDIC insurance, conversion of the debt in values, Saving's Guarantees, Performance Bonuses or Guarantee Bonuses and Insurances for Energy Saving can be of great help. This article deals on the IES insurance policies, their loss control management, successful cases, benefits, particular advantages, place in the market and refers argued insurance exceptions and perception surveys. [Spanish] Dado que uno de los problemas restrictivos a la hora de invertir en el ahorro de energia es la incertidumbre de obtener los ahorros proyectados, se presenta una tecnica en el manejo del riesgo para proyectos de eficiencia energetica llamada Seguro para el Ahorro de Energia (SAE). SAE estimula financieramente a quienes implementan proyectos para el ahorro de energia con el fin de que vayan mas alla de las medidas normales y consigan niveles significativos de ahorro, contribuyendo asi al cumplimiento de objetivos nacionales de ahorro energetico. Para reducir el riesgo de bajo desempeno de energia provocados por proyectos de ahorro existe la medicion del desempeno internacional y el protocolo de inversion (IMPVP) asi como diagnosticos y procesos de arranque, mientras que para transferir el

  1. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  2. Developing tools for the safety specification in risk management plans: lessons learned from a pilot project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Andrew J P; Lettis, Sally; Chapman, Charlotte L; Evans, Stephen J W; Waller, Patrick C; Shakir, Saad; Payvandi, Nassrin; Murray, Alison B

    2008-05-01

    Following the adoption of the ICH E2E guideline, risk management plans (RMP) defining the cumulative safety experience and identifying limitations in safety information are now required for marketing authorisation applications (MAA). A collaborative research project was conducted to gain experience with tools for presenting and evaluating data in the safety specification. This paper presents those tools found to be useful and the lessons learned from their use. Archive data from a successful MAA were utilised. Methods were assessed for demonstrating the extent of clinical safety experience, evaluating the sensitivity of the clinical trial data to detect treatment differences and identifying safety signals from adverse event and laboratory data to define the extent of safety knowledge with the drug. The extent of clinical safety experience was demonstrated by plots of patient exposure over time. Adverse event data were presented using dot plots, which display the percentages of patients with the events of interest, the odds ratio, and 95% confidence interval. Power and confidence interval plots were utilised for evaluating the sensitivity of the clinical database to detect treatment differences. Box and whisker plots were used to display laboratory data. This project enabled us to identify new evidence-based methods for presenting and evaluating clinical safety data. These methods represent an advance in the way safety data from clinical trials can be analysed and presented. This project emphasises the importance of early and comprehensive planning of the safety package, including evaluation of the use of epidemiology data.

  3. FIDIC contracts: analysis of the impact of general and particular conditions on the financial risk management in Romanian infrastructure projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constanţa-Nicoleta Bodea

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects are characterized by risks and uncertainties mainly due to technical and economic complexity. Risk management is an important tool in making decisions involving the identification and reduction, avoidance or transfer risk and uncertainties consequences of events that occurs during project implementation. For this reason, the objective of the contract between the beneficiary and the contractor is the allocation of risk. The distribution of risk in contracts for the execution of construction works was and is an ongoing challenge faced by parties having a significant impact on the type of contract is used. On the one hand, the beneficiaries tend to transfer to the contractors as many of the project risks and uncertainties, on the other hand, the contractors look to exploit any weakness contract, so as to reduce their impact on the expected profit. One of the most important risks assumed by the contractor by signing the contract which is also increasingly common in the current economic situation is the reduced financial capacity to support the project. A purely legal or purely technical interpretation is not meant to describe the complexity of issues related to implementation of construction projects. For this reason the authors have adopted a multi-disciplinary approach, which includes the legal issues related to the nature of the contract, but also the financial and technical aspects of construction projects. The paper aims to analyze how special contract clauses can influence the implementation of construction projects and in particular the financial management of contractors. The authors propose a model for analyzing the impact of FIDIC contract conditions applied on a case study of five transport infrastructure projects.

  4. Yield risks in global maize markets: Historical evidence and projections in key regions of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson B. Villoria

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous worldwide crop failures stemming from a more unstable climate may reduce the scope for international trade to compensate food shortages and stabilize food prices across the various regions of the world. Understanding the effects of changes in crop productivity on global markets requires knowledge about the extent to which crop yields may be systematically related across producing and consuming centers. This short communication contributes to this knowledge by investigating the potential changes in the strength of two key sources of supply risks in global maize markets: yield variance and cross-country yield correlation. We focus on the largest producing and consuming countries of the world. We capitalize on yield projections from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project. Exploratory analysis of the skill of the underlying GGCMI models in reproducing key moments of the distribution of observed yields reveals that they overstate observed variances but faithfully reproduce observed patterns of cross-country correlations. We find no evidence of an increase in the degree of cross-country dependency of maize yields. We also find a higher incidence of what would be considered extremely low maize yields by present-time standards stemming from the projected downward trend in yields levels toward mid-century. The weak dependency of maize yields across countries, an the possibility of reducing the higher incidence of extremes through policies aimed to reverse the climate-induced downward trends in yields, suggest that international trade can become a valuable tool to ameliorate the effects of more unstable crop yields. Keywords: Extremely low yields, Maize markets, Food prices, Agricultural yields, Systemic risk in agriculture, Global agriculture, AgMIP, Global gridded crop model intercomparison

  5. Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

    2016-02-01

    High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea

  6. 76 FR 31329 - EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (Blue Book)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-31

    ... Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (Blue Book) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA...-11-001, April 2011), also known as the Blue Book, which provides radiation risk assessment methodology. EPA will use the scientific information on radiation risks provided in the Blue Book, together...

  7. Targeted Expansion Project for Outreach and Treatment for Substance Abuse and HIV Risk Behaviors in Asian and Pacific Islander Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemoto, Tooru; Iwamoto, Mariko; Kamitani, Emiko; Morris, Anne; Sakata, Maria

    2011-01-01

    Access to culturally competent HIV/AIDS and substance abuse treatment and prevention services is limited for Asian and Pacific Islanders (APIs). Based on the intake data for a community outreach project in the San Francisco Bay Area (N = 1,349), HIV risk behaviors were described among the targeted API risk groups. The self-reported HIV prevalence…

  8. Ecological effects and potential risks of the water diversion project in the Heihe River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mengmeng; Wang, Shuai; Fu, Bojie; Gao, Guangyao; Shen, Qin

    2018-04-01

    To curb the severe ecological deterioration in the lower Heihe River Basin (HRB) in northwest China, a water diversion project was initiated in 2000. A comprehensive analysis of the ecological effects and potential risks associated with the project is needed. We assessed the hydrological and ecological achievements, and also analyzed the potential problems after the project was completed. We found that since the project began the hydrological regime has changed, with more than 57.82% of the upstream water being discharged to the lower reaches on average. As a result, the groundwater level in the lower reaches has risen; the terminal lake has gradually expanded to a maximum area in excess of 50km 2 since 2010, and there has been a significant recovery of vegetation in the riparian zone and the Ejin core oases, which represents the initial rehabilitation of the degraded downstream environment. Additionally, the economy of Ejin has developed spectacularly, with an annual growth rate of 28.06%. However, in the middle reaches, the average groundwater level has continuously declined by a total of 5.8m and significant degradation of the vegetation has occurred along the river course. The discrepancy in the water allocation between the middle and lower reaches has intensified. This highlights the inability of the current water diversion scheme to realize further ecological restoration and achieve sustainable development throughout the whole basin. In future water management programs, we recommend that water allocation is coordinated by considering the basin as an integrated entity and to scientifically determine the size of the midstream farmland and downstream oasis; restrict non-ecological water use in the lower reaches, and jointly dispatch the surface water and groundwater. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision-making in the design stages of new buildings or in the retrofitting of existing heritages. The focus is on the evaluation of economic–environmental sustainability, considering the presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of risk analysis in conjunction with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological options, which represents a recent and poorly explored context of analysis. It is assumed that there is a presence of uncertainty in cost estimating, in terms of the Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs and uncertainty in the technical performance of the life-cycle cost analysis. According to the probability analysis, which was solved through stochastic simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (MCM, risk and uncertainty are modeled as stochastic variables or as “stochastic relevant cost drivers”. Coherently, the economic–financial and energy–environmental sustainability is analyzed through the calculation of a conjoint “economic–environmental indicator”, in terms of the stochastic global cost. A case study of the multifunctional building glass façade project in Northern Italy is proposed. The application demonstrates that introducing flexibility into the input data and the duration of the service lives of components and the economic and environmental behavior of alternative scenarios can lead to opposite results compared to a deterministic analysis. The results give full evidence of the environmental variables’ capacity to significantly perturb the model output.

  10. The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

    2004-01-01

    Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

  11. Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony; Barras, Lucile; Battaglini, Antonella

    2012-01-01

    The world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent climate change, while meeting the energy needs of developed and developing economies. Recent studies suggest that generation of electricity from concentrated solar power in North African countries and its transmission to Europe could provide European and North African partners with low-carbon electricity.The private capital will be likely required to achieve the scale of new investment and yet the North African region experience difficulties with sustaining high levels of foreign direct investment from the private sector. The literature identifies a number of risks as barriers to investment, and we examine these in the particular context of renewable energy development. We conducted three stages of interviews with stakeholders to learn their perceptions of the risks most likely to affect renewable energy projects. Three class of risks—regulatory, political, and force majeure (which includes terrorism)—stand out as being of high concern. Of these, regulatory risks are perceived as being the most consequential, and the most likely to occur. This suggests that attention to building the capacities of North African countries to develop, implement, and enforce sound regulations in a transparent manner could be an important step in promoting renewable energy cooperation with Europe.

  12. Integration of OHS into Risk Management in an Open-Pit Mining Project in Quebec (Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite undeniable progress, the mining industry remains the scene of serious accidents revealing disregard for occupational health and safety (OHS and leaving open the debate regarding the safety of its employees. The San José mine last collapse near Copiapó, Chile on 5 August 2010 and the 69-day rescue operation that followed in order to save 33 miners trapped underground show the serious consequences of neglecting worker health and safety. The aim of this study was to validate a new approach to integrating OHS into risk management in the context of a new open-pit mining project in Quebec, based on analysis of incident and accident reports, semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and collaborative field observations. We propose a new concept, called hazard concentration, based on the number of hazards and their influence. This concept represents the weighted fraction of each category of hazards related to an undesirable event. The weight of each category of hazards is calculated by AHP, a multicriteria method. The proposed approach included the creation of an OHS database for facilitating expert risk management. Reinforcing effects between hazard categories were identified and all potential risks were prioritized. The results provided the company with a rational basis for choosing a suitable accident prevention strategy for its operational activities.

  13. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

  14. Stochastic Drought Risk Analysis and Projection Methods For Thermoelectric Power Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekera, Behailu Belamo

    Combined effects of socio-economic, environmental, technological and political factors impact fresh cooling water availability, which is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. This study models and analyzes drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterize a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. More specifically, the objective of this research is to propose a stochastic water supply risk analysis and projection methods from thermoelectric power systems operation and management perspectives. The study defines thermoelectric drought as a shortage of cooling water due to stressed supply or beyond operable water temperature limits for an extended period of time requiring power plants to reduce production or completely shut down. It presents a thermoelectric drought risk characterization framework that considers heat content and water quantity facets of adequate water availability for uninterrupted operation of such plants and safety of its surroundings. In addition, it outlines mechanisms to identify rate of occurrences of the said droughts and stochastically quantify subsequent potential losses to the sector. This mechanism is enabled through a model based on compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process. This study also demonstrates how

  15. Risk analysis in the management of urban construction projects from the perspective of the employer and the contractor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Taghipour

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Imbalance between anticipated and actual progress in the development of urban construction projects suggests that there are many obstacles and risks which not only causes the urban management be unsustainable, but the reconstruction and development of urban space is also seriously threatened. In this study, the library research on issues related to the risk of construction projects was done, then some interviews were conducted with experts and managers informed and involved in the projects, and finally questionnaires were distributed to identify and classify the impact of the risks of the implementation of the construction projects. After analyzing the data, the results indicated that the experts listed the most significant risks as the delays in the payment of contractors' claims and statements due to the lack of handling financial instruments, the governance of relationships rather than rules in the tenders resulting from employer actions, low commitment to the quality of work provided by their subcontractors, failure to complete the detail engineering by foreign contractors on time, weaknesses in contractors' financial resources, and offering lower prices than reasonable by contractors to win the tender. All of these require special attention and other kinds of risks are important at the next level. Finally, the solutions for eliminating or reducing risks in high-risk areas have been offered to provide tranquility for contractors and employers.

  16. Project risk and appeals in U.S. Forest Service planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.; Seesholtz, David N.

    2013-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires U.S. Forest Service planning processes to be conducted by interdisciplinary teams of resource specialists to analyze and disclose the likely environmental impacts of proposed natural resource management actions on Forest Service lands. Multiple challenges associated with these processes have been a source of frustration for the agency. One of these challenges involves administrative appeals through which public entities can challenge a Forest Service decision following a NEPA process. These appeals instigate an internal review process and can result in an affirmation of the Forest Service decision, a reversal of that decision, or additional work that re-initiates all or part of the NEPA process. We examine the best predictors of appeals and their outcomes on a representative sample of 489 Forest Service NEPA processes that were decided between 2007 and 2009. While certain factors associated with pre-existing social contexts (such as a history of controversy) or pre-determined elements of a proposed action (such as the extraction of forest products) predispose certain processes to a higher risk of appeals, other practices and process-related strategies within the control of the agency also appear to bear meaningful influence on the occurrence of appeals and their outcomes. Appeals and their outcomes were most strongly related to programmatic, structural (turnover of personnel in particular), and relationship risks (both internal and external) within the processes, suggesting the need for greater focus within the agency on cultivating positive internal and external relationships to manage the risk of appeals. -- Highlights: ► We examined appeals and their outcomes on 489 U.S. Forest Service NEPA processes. ► Project type, context, team turnover, and personal relationships predicted appeals. ► External relationship management and staff turnover best predicted appeal outcomes. ► Positive internal and

  17. Maternal risk factors for abnormal placental growth: The national collaborative perinatal project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholson Wanda K

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies of maternal risk factors for abnormal placental growth have focused on placental weight and placental ratio as measures of placental growth. We sought to identify maternal risk factors for placental weight and two neglected dimensions of placental growth: placental thickness and chorionic plate area. Methods We conducted an analysis of 24,135 mother-placenta pairs enrolled in the National Collaborative Perinatal Project, a prospective cohort study of pregnancy and child health. We defined growth restriction as th percentile and hypertrophy as > 90th percentile for three placental growth dimensions: placental weight, placental thickness and chorionic plate area. We constructed parallel multinomial logistic regression analyses to identify (a predictors of restricted growth (vs. normal and (b predictors of hypertrophic growth (vs. normal. Results Black race was associated with an increased likelihood of growth restriction for placental weight, thickness and chorionic plate area, but was associated with a reduced likelihood of hypertrophy for these three placental growth dimensions. We observed an increased likelihood of growth restriction for placental weight and chorionic plate area among mothers with hypertensive disease at 24 weeks or beyond. Anemia was associated with a reduced likelihood of growth restriction for placental weight and chorionic plate area. Pre-pregnancy BMI and pregnancy weight gain were associated with a reduced likelihood of growth restriction and an increased likelihood of hypertrophy for all three dimensions of placental growth. Conclusion Maternal risk factors are either associated with placental growth restriction or placental hypertrophy not both. Our findings suggest that the placenta may have compensatory responses to certain maternal risk factors suggesting different underlying biological mechanisms.

  18. Project risk and appeals in U.S. Forest Service planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Marc J., E-mail: mjstern@vt.edu [Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 304 Cheatham Hall (0324), Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Predmore, S. Andrew, E-mail: spred2@uis.edu [Department of Environmental Studies, University of Illinois-Springfield, Public Affairs Center, Room 314, Springfield, IL 62703 (United States); Morse, Wayde C., E-mail: morsewc@auburn.edu [School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 3301 Forestry and Wildlife Bldg., Auburn, AL 36849 (United States); Seesholtz, David N., E-mail: dseesholtz@fs.fed.us [Focused Science Delivery Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 1249S Vinnell Way, Suite 200, Boise, ID 83709 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires U.S. Forest Service planning processes to be conducted by interdisciplinary teams of resource specialists to analyze and disclose the likely environmental impacts of proposed natural resource management actions on Forest Service lands. Multiple challenges associated with these processes have been a source of frustration for the agency. One of these challenges involves administrative appeals through which public entities can challenge a Forest Service decision following a NEPA process. These appeals instigate an internal review process and can result in an affirmation of the Forest Service decision, a reversal of that decision, or additional work that re-initiates all or part of the NEPA process. We examine the best predictors of appeals and their outcomes on a representative sample of 489 Forest Service NEPA processes that were decided between 2007 and 2009. While certain factors associated with pre-existing social contexts (such as a history of controversy) or pre-determined elements of a proposed action (such as the extraction of forest products) predispose certain processes to a higher risk of appeals, other practices and process-related strategies within the control of the agency also appear to bear meaningful influence on the occurrence of appeals and their outcomes. Appeals and their outcomes were most strongly related to programmatic, structural (turnover of personnel in particular), and relationship risks (both internal and external) within the processes, suggesting the need for greater focus within the agency on cultivating positive internal and external relationships to manage the risk of appeals. -- Highlights: ► We examined appeals and their outcomes on 489 U.S. Forest Service NEPA processes. ► Project type, context, team turnover, and personal relationships predicted appeals. ► External relationship management and staff turnover best predicted appeal outcomes. ► Positive internal and

  19. Soft drink consumption and gestational diabetes risk in the SUN project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donazar-Ezcurra, Mikel; Lopez-Del Burgo, Cristina; Martinez-Gonzalez, Miguel A; Basterra-Gortari, Francisco J; de Irala, Jokin; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira

    2018-04-01

    Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) prevalence is increasing worldwide. To the best of our knowledge the specific evaluation of soft drink consumption as a risk factor for developing GDM has only been conducted in the Nurses' Health Study II. To investigate the incidence of GDM according to soft drink consumption in the SUN project. The "Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" (SUN) project is a prospective and dynamic cohort which included data of 3396 women who notified at least one pregnancy between December 1999 and March 2012. A validated 136-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess soft drink consumption. Four categories of sugar-sweetened soft drink (SSSD) and diet soft drink (DSD) consumption (servings) were established: rarely or never (3/month and ≤1/week) and high (≥2/week). Potential confounders were adjusted through non-conditional logistic regression models. During the follow-up, we identified 172 incident cases of GDM. After adjusting for age, baseline body mass index, family history of diabetes, smoking, total energy intake, physical activity, parity, fast-food consumption, adherence to Mediterranean dietary pattern, alcohol intake, multiple pregnancy, cardiovascular disease/hypertension at baseline, fiber intake, following special diet and snacking, SSSD consumption was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident GDM, with multivariable adjusted odds ratios (OR) of 2.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25-3.31) and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.01-2.77) for the highest and intermediate categories, respectively, versus the lowest category (p for linear trend: 0.006). Conversely, DSD consumption was not associated with GDM incidence (adjusted OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.52-1.31) for the highest versus the lowest category (p for linear trend: 0.258). Additional sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Higher consumption of SSSDs before pregnancy was an independent risk factor for GDM, however, no association was

  20. COST OF TAX COMPLIANCE AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN PROJECTS: THE CASE STUDY OF A SMALL ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Manzini Cianfanelli

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a risk management perspective to analyze compliance costs arising from overlapping service tax (ST jurisdictions. We study the case of an engineering company providing services to the Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo [São Paulo State Sanitation Company] – SABESP, a public entity. The engineering company was contracted under public law 8.666/93, to provide engineering service in several townships in São Paulo’s metropolitan area. Because the laws governing bidding do not permit later modification in price or provider, subsequent double taxation by one municipality cut into the firm’s margins, and should other local governments follow suit, multiple taxation would render the contract untenable for the provider. Our paper models the impact of conflicting jurisdictions on administrative burden, psychological costs and profit constriction and discusses project management techniques for decision making and management in similar situations.

  1. Survey of foreign risk analyses with plans and projects concerning final disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hultgren, Aa.

    1977-08-01

    Risk analysis of the back end of the fuel cycle is now being given increasing efforts in several nuclear power countries. A review of the major programmes abroad in this field, especially for terminal storage of high level nuclear waste, is given in the first part of this report. The second part of the report reviews major projects and plans for terminal storage in America and in Western Europe, with a brief reference to co-operation in international fora. The most comprehensive programme is in progress in the United States. For Sweden it seems that also the programmes in Canada and France are of particular interest due to their concentration on terminal storage in crystalline rocks. (author)

  2. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    informed decision support towards decision-makers and stakeholders in terms of accumulated descending graphs. The decision support method developed in this paper aims to provide assistance in the analysis and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding any transport......This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  3. Cardiovascular risk management in rheumatoid arthritis patients still suboptimal: the Implementation of Cardiovascular Risk Management in Rheumatoid Arthritis project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Inge A. M.; Heslinga, Maaike; Griep, Ed N.; Griep-Wentink, Hanneke R. M.; Schotsman, Rob; Cambach, Walter; Dijkmans, Ben A. C.; Smulders, Yvo M.; Lems, Willem F.; Boers, Maarten; Voskuyl, Alexandre E.; Peters, Mike J. L.; van Schaardenburg, Dirkjan; Nurmohamed, Micheal T.

    2017-01-01

    To assess the 10-year cardiovascular (CV) risk score and to identify treatment and undertreatment of CV risk factors in patients with established RA. Demographics, CV risk factors and prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were assessed by questionnaire. To calculate the 10-year CV risk score

  4. Risk Management Capability Maturity and Performance of Complex Product and System (CoPS Projects with an Asian Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren, Y.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Complex Products and Systems (CoPS are high value, technology and engineering-intensive capital goods. The motivation of this study is the persistent high failure rate of CoPS projects, Asian CoPS provider’s weak capability and lack of specific research on CoPS risk management. This paper evaluates risk management maturity level of CoPS projects against a general CoPS risk management capability maturity model (RM-CMM developed by the authors. An Asian based survey was conducted to investigate the value of RM to project performance, and Asian (non-Japanese CoPS implementers’ perceived application of RM practices, their strengths and weaknesses. The survey result shows that higher RM maturity level leads to higher CoPS project performance. It also shows project complexity and uncertainty moderates the relationship between some RM practices and project performance, which implies that a contingency approach should be adopted to manage CoPS risks effectively. In addition, it shows that Asian CoPS implementers are weak in RM process and there are also rooms for improvement in the softer aspects of organizational capabilities and robustness.

  5. Risk management of energy efficiency projects in the industry - sample plant for injecting pulverized coal into the blast furnaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Filip P.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the applicability of well-known risk management methodologies in energy efficiency projects in the industry. The possibilities of application of the selected risk management methodology are demonstrated within the project of the plants for injecting pulverized coal into blast furnaces nos. 1 and 2, implemented by the company US STEEL SERBIA d.o.o. in Smederevo. The aim of the project was to increase energy efficiency through the reduction of the quantity of coke, whose production requires large amounts of energy, reduction of harmful exhaust emission and increase productivity of blast furnaces through the reduction of production costs. The project was complex and had high costs, so that it was necessary to predict risk events and plan responses to identified risks at an early stage of implementation, in the course of the project design, in order to minimise losses and implement the project in accordance with the defined time and cost limitations. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179081: Researching contemporary tendencies of strategic management using specialized management disciplines in function of competitiveness of Serbian economy

  6. Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tofighian, Ali Asghar; Moezzi, Hamid; Khakzar Barfuei, Morteza; Shafiee, Mahmood

    2018-02-01

    This paper deals with multi-period project portfolio selection problem. In this problem, the available budget is invested on the best portfolio of projects in each period such that the net profit is maximized. We also consider more realistic assumptions to cover wider range of applications than those reported in previous studies. A novel mathematical model is presented to solve the problem, considering risks, stochastic incomes, and possibility of investing extra budget in each time period. Due to the complexity of the problem, an effective meta-heuristic method hybridized with a local search procedure is presented to solve the problem. The algorithm is based on genetic algorithm (GA), which is a prominent method to solve this type of problems. The GA is enhanced by a new solution representation and well selected operators. It also is hybridized with a local search mechanism to gain better solution in shorter time. The performance of the proposed algorithm is then compared with well-known algorithms, like basic genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM-like) by means of some prominent indicators. The computation results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. At last, the proposed algorithm is wisely combined with PSO to improve the computing time considerably.

  7. The formation of a risk management system for projects in the field of aquaculture innovative development in the Kaliningrad region: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serbulov Alexey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This article sets out to develop the concept and the principal scheme of the formation of a risk management system for innovative economic development projects in the field of aquaculture. The research carried out by the authors helps identify the main problems and characteristics of risk management projects for the development of aquaculture in presentday Russia. The authors outline the status and features of aquaculture development projects in the North-western federal district and the Kaliningrad region. The article formulates and justifies the concept of “risk management projects in innovative development of aquaculture in the region” focusing on the classification of aquaculture risks in relation to innovative development projects, which expands the conceptual framework of risk management in view of the specific risks relating to economic development projects in the field of aquaculture. The authors characterize modern methods and approaches to risk management projects and organizations in the context of their application in the framework of aquaculture development projects and offer mechanisms for risk management of aquaculture development projects, which make it possible to include risk management activity in the general context of activities of parent project organizations. The authors develop the concept and principal scheme of the formation of risk management system for innovative development projects in aquaculture.

  8. Evaluating high risks in large-scale projects using an extended VIKOR method under a fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ebrahimnejad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. This paper presents a new risk evaluation approach in order to rank the high risks in large-scale projects and improve the performance of these projects. It is based on the fuzzy set theory that is an effective tool to handle uncertainty. It is also based on an extended VIKOR method that is one of the well-known multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM methods. The proposed decision-making approach integrates knowledge and experience acquired from professional experts, since they perform the risk identification and also the subjective judgments of the performance rating for high risks in terms of conflicting criteria, including probability, impact, quickness of reaction toward risk, event measure quantity and event capability criteria. The most notable difference of the proposed VIKOR method with its traditional version is just the use of fuzzy decision-matrix data to calculate the ranking index without the need to ask the experts. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with a real-case study in an Iranian power plant project, and the associated results are compared with two well-known decision-making methods under a fuzzy environment.

  9. Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinying Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

  10. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Major risk from rapid, large-volume landslides in Europe (EU Project RUNOUT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Pasuto, Alessandro

    2003-08-01

    Project RUNOUT has investigated methods for reducing the risk from large-volume landslides in Europe, especially those involving rapid rates of emplacement. Using field data from five test sites (Bad Goisern and Köfels in Austria, Tessina and Vajont in Italy, and the Barranco de Tirajana in Gran Canaria, Spain), the studies have developed (1) techniques for applying geomorphological investigations and optical remote sensing to map landslides and their evolution; (2) analytical, numerical, and cellular automata models for the emplacement of sturzstroms and debris flows; (3) a brittle-failure model for forecasting catastrophic slope failure; (4) new strategies for integrating large-area Global Positioning System (GPS) arrays with local geodetic monitoring networks; (5) methods for raising public awareness of landslide hazards; and (6) Geographic Information System (GIS)-based databases for the test areas. The results highlight the importance of multidisciplinary studies of landslide hazards, combining subjects as diverse as geology and geomorphology, remote sensing, geodesy, fluid dynamics, and social profiling. They have also identified key goals for an improved understanding of the physical processes that govern landslide collapse and runout, as well as for designing strategies for raising public awareness of landslide hazards and for implementing appropriate land management policies for reducing landslide risk.

  12. Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

  13. A microseismic workflow for managing induced seismicity risk as CO2 storage projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzel, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Morency, C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pyle, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Templeton, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); White, J. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-10-27

    It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. While induced seismicity has not been a major operational issue for carbon storage projects to date, a seismicity hazard exists and must be carefully addressed. Two essential components of effective seismic risk management are (1) sensitive microseismic monitoring and (2) robust data interpretation tools. This report describes a novel workflow, based on advanced processing algorithms applied to microseismic data, to help improve management of seismic risk. This workflow has three main goals: (1) to improve the resolution and reliability of passive seismic monitoring, (2) to extract additional, valuable information from continuous waveform data that is often ignored in standard processing, and (3) to minimize the turn-around time between data collection, interpretation, and decision-making. These three objectives can allow for a better-informed and rapid response to changing subsurface conditions.

  14. The Irma-sponge Project Frhymap: Flood Risk and Hydrological Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, L.; Pfister, L.

    In the context of both increasing socio-economic developments in floodplains and the recent heavy floodings that have occurred in the Rhine and Meuse basins, the need for reliable hydro-climatological data, easily transposable hydrological and hydraulic models, as well as risk management tools has increased crucially. In the FRHYMAP project, some of these issues were addressed within a common mesoscale experimen- tal basin: the Alzette river basin, located in the Grand-duchy of Luxembourg. The various aspects concerning flooding events, reaching from the hydro-climatological analysis of field data to the risk assessment of socio-economic impacts, taking into account past and future climate and landuse changes were analysed by the six partici- pating research institutes (CREBS, L; CEREG, F; DLR, D; EPFL, CH; UB, D; VUB, B). Hydro-climatological data analysis over the past five decades has shown that in the study area, the increase in westerly and south-westerly atmospheric circulation patterns induced higher winter rainfall totals, leading to more frequent groundwater resurgences and ultimately also to higher daily maximum streamflow of the Alzette. The thus increased flood hazard has nonetheless a certain spatial variability, closely linked to the rainfall distribution patterns, which are strongly depending on the topo- graphical characteristics of the study area. Although the overall regime of the Alzette is more dependent on climate fluctuations, land use changes (mining activities, urbani- sation) had a marked effect on the rainfall-runoff relationship in some sub-basins over the last decades. By linking model parameters to physiographical basin characteris- tics, regionalised and thus easily transposable hydrological models were developed. Within a study area with very little long-term observation series, this technique, com- bined with the use of hydraulic models, allowed to define hydrological hazard pro- ducing and hydrological risk exposed areas. The

  15. Socioeconomic Status As a Risk Factor for Unintended Pregnancy in the Contraceptive CHOICE Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iseyemi, Abigail; Zhao, Qiuhong; McNicholas, Colleen; Peipert, Jeffrey F

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate the association of low socioeconomic status as an independent risk factor for unintended pregnancy. We performed a secondary analysis of data from the Contraceptive CHOICE project. Between 2007 and 2011, 9,256 participants were recruited and followed for up to 3 years. The primary outcome of interest was unintended pregnancy; the primary exposure variable was low socioeconomic status, defined as self-report of either receiving public assistance or having difficulty paying for basic necessities. Four contraceptive groups were evaluated: 1) long-acting reversible contraceptive method (hormonal or copper intrauterine device or subdermal implant); 2) depot medroxyprogesterone acetate injection; 3) oral contraceptive pills, a transdermal patch, or a vaginal ring; or 4) other or no method. Confounders were adjusted for in the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the effect of socioeconomic status on risk of unintended pregnancy. Participants with low socioeconomic status experienced 515 unintended pregnancies during 14,001 women-years of follow-up (3.68/100 women-years; 95% CI 3.37-4.01) compared with 200 unintended pregnancies during 10,296 women-years (1.94/100 women-years; 95% CI 1.68-2.23) among participants without low socioeconomic status. Women with low socioeconomic status were more likely to have an unintended pregnancy (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.2). After adjusting for age, education level, insurance status, and history of unintended pregnancy, low socioeconomic status was associated with an increased risk of unintended pregnancy (adjusted HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Despite the removal of cost barriers, low socioeconomic status is associated with a higher incidence of unintended pregnancy.

  16. Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M.; Setterfield, Samantha A.

    2013-06-01

    Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning.

  17. Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Setterfield, Samantha A

    2013-01-01

    Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning. (letter)

  18. Relationship between Deleterious Variation, Genomic Autozygosity, and Disease Risk: Insights from The 1000 Genomes Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pemberton, Trevor J; Szpiech, Zachary A

    2018-04-05

    Genomic regions of autozygosity (ROAs) represent segments of individual genomes that are homozygous for haplotypes inherited identical-by-descent (IBD) from a common ancestor. ROAs are nonuniformly distributed across the genome, and increased ROA levels are a reported risk factor for numerous complex diseases. Previously, we hypothesized that long ROAs are enriched for deleterious homozygotes as a result of young haplotypes with recent deleterious mutations-relatively untouched by purifying selection-being paired IBD as a consequence of recent parental relatedness, a pattern supported by ROA and whole-exome sequence data on 27 individuals. Here, we significantly bolster support for our hypothesis and expand upon our original analyses using ROA and whole-genome sequence data on 2,436 individuals from The 1000 Genomes Project. Considering CADD deleteriousness scores, we reaffirm our previous observation that long ROAs are enriched for damaging homozygotes worldwide. We show that strongly damaging homozygotes experience greater enrichment than weaker damaging homozygotes, while overall enrichment varies appreciably among populations. Mendelian disease genes and those encoding FDA-approved drug targets have significantly increased rates of gain in damaging homozygotes with increasing ROA coverage relative to all other genes. In genes implicated in eight complex phenotypes for which ROA levels have been identified as a risk factor, rates of gain in damaging homozygotes vary across phenotypes and populations but frequently differ significantly from non-disease genes. These findings highlight the potential confounding effects of population background in the assessment of associations between ROA levels and complex disease risk, which might underlie reported inconsistencies in ROA-phenotype associations. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in Bushehr Port on the basis of The WHO MONICA Project The Persian Gulf Healthy Heart Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Amiri

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available The majority of all deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs are in developing countries. There is now a pressing need for developing countries to define and implement preventive interventions for CVDs. We used WHO MONICA Project protocols to measure trends in coronary risk factors in Bushehr Port in the Persian Gulf Healthy Heart Project. Coronary risk factors of 2092 , aged >= 25 years men and women were evaluated in a cross-sectional study. Of the studied population, 97.7% had at least one coronary risk factor, 44.3% of men and 69% of women had at least two coronary risk factors. The high prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus (8.6%, central obesity (59.4%, obesity (26.8%, hypertension (24.5%, smoking (15.7%, physical inactivity (71.1%, hypercholesterolemia (24% and low HDL-cholesterol (61.5% showed that coronary risk factors prevail in Bushehr Port. Therefore, preventive strategies should be implemented immediately to avoid cardiovascular epidemic in the near future.

  20. Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation.... 3. To upgrade the South African national seismic network. The project is carried out under the auspices of the SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) program "Countermeasures towards Global Issues through...

  1. The MERINOVA project: MEteorological RIsks as drivers of environmental inNOvation in Agro-ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de vijver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2014-05-01

    Devastating weather-related events have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Since more than half of the Belgian territory is managed by the agricultural sector, extreme events may have significant impacts on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The major objectives are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Impacts developed from physically based models not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by more limits to aid received for agricultural damage and an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers. The main findings of each of these project building blocks will be communicated. MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs. The

  2. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  3. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Nicol

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessment (EIA is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  4. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA RISA Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast, or CCRUN, was funded in October 2010 under NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. It is currently also the only RISA team with a principal focus on climate change adaptation in urban settings. While CCRUN's initial focus is on the major cities of the urban Northeast corridor (Philadelphia, New York and Boston), its work will ultimately expand to cover small and medium-sized cities in the relevant portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as well, so that local needs for targeted climate-risk information can be served in a coordinated way. CCRUN is designed to address the complex challenges that are associated with densely populated, highly interconnected urban areas, including such as urban heat island effects; poor air quality; intense coastal development, and multifunctional settlement along inland waterways; complex overlapping institutional jurisdictions; integrated infrastructure systems; and highly diverse, and in some cases, fragile socio-economic communities. These challenges can best be addressed by the stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary approach taken by the CCRUN RISA team. As an important added benefit, the research accomplishments and lessons learned through stakeholder engagement will provide a foundation for managing climate risks in other urban areas in the United States. CCRUN's initial projects are focused in three broad sectors: Water, Coasts, and Health. Research in each of these sectors is linked through the cross-cutting themes of climate change and community vulnerability, the latter of which is especially important in considerations of environmental justice and equity. CCRUN's stakeholder-driven approach to research can therefore support investigations of the impacts of a changing climate, population growth, and

  5. Effective Risk Management in Innovative Projects: A Case Study of the Construction of Energy-efficient, Sustainable Building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krechowicz, Maria

    2017-10-01

    Many construction projects fail to meet deadlines or they exceed the assumed budget. This scenario is particularly common in the case of innovative projects, in which too late identification of a high risk of delays and exceeding the assumed costs makes a potentially profitable project untenable. A high risk level, far exceeding the level of risk in standard non-innovative projects, is a characteristic feature of the realization phase of innovative projects. This is associated not only with greater complexity of the design and construction phases, but also with the problems with application of new technologies and prototype solutions, lack of qualified personnel with suitable expertise in specialized areas, and with the ability to properly identify the gaps between available and required knowledge and skills. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in innovative projects on the example of the realization phase of an innovative, energy-efficient and sustainable building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow - DLJM Lab, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. In this paper, a new approach to risk management process for innovative construction projects is proposed. Risk management process was divided into five stages: gathering information, identification of the important unwanted events, first risk assessment, development and choice of risk reaction strategies, assessment of the residual risk after introducing risk reactions. 18 unwanted events in an innovative construction project were identified. The first risk assessment was carried out using two-parametric risk matrix, in which the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its consequences were analysed. Three levels of risks were defined: tolerable, controlled and uncontrolled. Risk reactions to each defined unwanted event were developed. The following risk reaction types were considered: risk retention, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk

  6. Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krechowicz, Maria

    2017-10-01

    Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

  7. An assessment of baseline ecological risks at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duke, C.S.; Meyers-Schone, L.; Glum, S.R.; Quaider, W.

    1991-01-01

    The Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), formerly the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC), is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Cincinnati, Ohio, which produced pure uranium metals from the early 1950s until 1989. DOE is currently conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), in order to remediate environmental impacts at the site. DOE is also preparing an environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to evaluate environmental impacts of proposed remedial actions. Both CERCLA and NEPA require evaluation of ecological risks of baseline conditions and proposed remedial actions. A preliminary assessment of ecological risks examined the potential effects of FEMP contaminants in one operable unit (OU) at the site, OU5, Environmental Media. Radionuclides of potential concern in OU5 soils include uranium, cesium, radium, strontium, technetium, and thorium. Chemicals detected in terrestrial organisms include aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, vanadium, and zinc, as well as radionuclides. Chemicals of potential concern in surface water include a variety of metals as well as uranium and technetium. Radionuclides in OU5 do not appear to pose a hazard to terrestrial organisms. Estimated radiation doses to aquatic organisms continually exposed to the maximum uranium concentrations observed in on-property drainages ranged from 40 to 4000 rad per year. However, off-property radionuclide concentrations are very low, and it is unlikely that organisms in streams adjacent to the FEMP are exposed to toxic levels. Maximum arsenic levels in vegetation collected from the FEMP are consistent with values reported in the literature to be toxic to certain plants. However, signs of stress have not been observed in vegetation on or adjacent to the FEMP

  8. Estimating Total Program Cost of a Long-Term, High-Technology, High-Risk Project with Task Durations and Costs That May Increase Over Time

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, Gerald G; Grose, Roger T; Koyak, Robert A

    2006-01-01

    .... Each task suffers some risk of delay and changed cost. Ignoring budget constraints, we use Monte Carlo simulation of the duration of each task in the project to infer the probability distribution of the project completion time...

  9. Final report on the project research 'stochastic effects of irradiation and risk estimation'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-03-01

    The title project research was carried out through 1983-1987, by three groups for the studies of radiation carcinogenesis, human genetic effects, and radiotoxicology. 8 reports by the first group, 3 by the second, and 6 by the third group are collected in this issue. The contents are as follows. Serial sacrifice study on tumorigenesis in male C57BL/6J mice exposed to gamma-ray or fast neutron radiation; Influence of biological variables on radiation carcinogenesis; Studies on radiation-induced thymic lymphomagenesis; Modifying factors of radiation induced myeloid leukemia of C3H/He mouse; Cell kinetic studies on radiation induced leukemogenesis; Cytogenetical studies on the mechanism of radiation induced neoplasmas; Molecular biological study on genetic stability of the genome; Protein factors regulating proliferation and differentiation of normal and neoplastic cells; Studies on dose-radiation relationships for induction of chromosome abberations in stem-spermatogonia of three crab-eating monkey after low and high dose rate γ-irradiation; Risk estimation of radiation mutagenesis in man by using cultured mammalian cells; Effects of ionizing radiation on male germ cells of crabeating monkey; Movement and metabolism of radioactive particles in the respiratory tract; Studies on dosimetry for internally deposited alpha-emitters; Comparative toxicological studies on the effects of internal exposures; Studies on treatment of alpha-radioactive wastes; Methodological studies on the inhalation of radioactive aerosols; Removal of transuranic elements by DTPA. (A. Y.)

  10. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  11. The ChimERA project: Coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laender, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Janssen, C.R.; Guardo, Di A.

    2014-01-01

    Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013-2016), funded by Cefic's Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address

  12. Scientific Opinion on the Pest Risk Analysis on Phytophthora ramorum prepared by the FP6 project RAPRA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The Panel on Plant Health was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the Pest Risk Analysis on Phytophthora ramorum prepared by the FP6 project RAPRA, taking into account comments by Member States and additional information since RAPRA. P. ramorum is the oomycete causing sudden oak death...

  13. Weather hazards and vulnerabilities for the European transport system - a risk panorama. EWENT project D5.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molarius, R.; Leviakangas, P.; Ronty, J.; Oiva, K. (eds.)

    2012-09-15

    This deliverable of EWENT project estimates the risks of extreme weather on European transport system. The main object of work package 5 in EWENT project was to perform a risk analysis based on impact and probability assessments carried out in earlier work packages (WP2-WP3). The results of WP 5 can be used as a starting point when deciding on the risk reduction measures, strategies and policies in the European Union. This deliverable also serves as a background material for the synthesis report (named shortly as Risk Panorama), which will summarise the findings of risk assessment and previous work packages. The methodological approach of EWENT is based on the generic risk management standard (IEC 60300-3-9) and starts with the identification of hazardous extreme weather phenomena, followed by an impact assessment and concluded by mitigation and risk control measures. This report pools the information from EWENT's earlier work packages, such as risk identification and estimation, into a 'risk panorama' and provides a holistic picture on the risks of extreme weather in different parts of Europe and EU transport network. The risk assessment is based on the definition of transport systems' vulnerability to extreme weather events in different countries and on calculations of the most probable causal chains, starting from adverse weather phenomena and ending up with events that pose harmful consequences to the transport systems in different climate regions. The latter part, the probabilistic section, is the hazard analysis. The vulnerability of a particular mode in a particular country is a function of exposure (indicated by transport or freight volumes and population density), susceptibility (infrastructure quality index, indicating overall resilience) and coping capacity (measured by GDP per capita). Hence, we define the extreme weather risk as Risk = hazard times vulnerability = P(negative consequences) times V[f(exposure, susceptibility, coping

  14. Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

    2014-04-15

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project%农业高新技术投资项目风险评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆迁; 苗姗姗

    2005-01-01

    The agricultural high-tech investment project (AHIP) is characterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agricultural projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity analysis and probability are defective. Therefore, this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.

  16. Communication and flood risk awareness in the framework of DRIHM project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Gilabert, Joan; Marcos, Raül; Parodi, Antonio; Rebora, Nicola; Garrote, Luís

    2014-05-01

    One of the main objectives of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 of the United Nations is to increase public awareness so as to understand the risks, vulnerabilities and disaster reduction globally. In the case of floods they are a major hazard in Spain. In the last 30 years alone, more than 300 flood and flash-flood events have been recorded. Usually these events produce minor damages and, occasionally, some deaths, usually due to imprudent behavior. In this context, improvements in the forecast and warning systems, the communication process and for the population to have a better knowledge using new technologies are welcome. The starting point of this communication is the analysis of the treatment of flood events made by the press, the risk perception of the population, as well as the communication tools and protocols of Civil Protection and Water Catalan Agency (ACA) in Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula). Afterwards, the analysis of the application of new tools developed by the University of Barcelona, with specific emphasis on the collaboration with the population, is shown. La Rambla is an informative portal of flood prevention, where share knowledge and experiences with the population. It is also a historical flood site where everyone can contribute and participate by sending experiences, data, records, pictures and much more. In La Rambla we can find information such as flood prevention plans, acts, scientific vocabulary ... There are also sections on historical floods, photo galleries, quizzes, flood news, and much more. The blog will be also used as a platform to distribute post-event questionnaires in order to analyze social impact as well as the population behavior when faced with a flood. Besides this, social networks are some of the most important channels where warnings and flood risk situations can be communicated. In the case of Facebook and Twitter, we use the platforms as a warning channel, to have a simple monitoring of the event and

  17. Risk analysis using AS/NZS 4360:2004, Bow-Tie diagram and ALARP on construction projects of Banyumanik Hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Diana Puspita; Pujotomo, Darminto; Wardani, Nadira Kusuma

    2017-11-01

    The Determination of risk is an uncertain event. Risks can have negative or positive impacts on project objectives. A project was defined as a series of activities and tasks that have a purpose, specifications, and limits of cost. Banyumanik Hospital Development Project is one of the construction projects in Semarang which have experienced some problems. The first problem is project delays on building stake. The second problem is delay of material supply. Finally, the problem that occurs is less management attention to health safety as evidenced by the unavailability of PPE for the workers. These problems will pose a risk to be a very important risk management performed by contractors at the Banyumanik Hospital Development Project to reduce the impact that would be caused by the risk borne by the provider of construction services. This research aim to risk identification, risk assessment and risk mitigation. Project risk management begins with the identification of risks based on the project life cycle. The risk assessment carried out by AS I NZS 4360: 2004 to the impacts of cost, time and quality. The results obtained from the method of AS I NZS 4360: 2004 is the risk that requires the handling of mitigation. Mitigated risk is the risk that had significant and high level. There are four risks that require risk mitigation with Bow-Tie diagrams which is work accidents, contract delays, material delays and design changes. Bow-Tie diagram method is a method for identifying causal and preventive action and recovery of a risk. Results obtained from Bow-Tie diagram method is a preventive action and recovery. This action is used as input to the ALARP method. ALARP method is used to determine the priority of the strategy proposed in the category broadly acceptable, tolerable, and unacceptable.

  18. Risk management of the North Anna Power Station Service Water System Preservation Project using the IPE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afzali, A.; Donovan, M.D.; Sartain, M.D.; Bankley, A.V.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses the application of the North Anna Power Station Individual Plant Examination (IPE) models in PRA study of the Service Water System Preservation Project (SWSPP). The service water project involves repair and restoration of the Service Water System (SWS) piping and will require excavation of the buried SWS lines in addition to temporarily removing one of the two redundant SWS loops from operation. The SWSPP will be carried out with one or both units in normal operation. The objective of the PRA study was to quantify the risk impact (as measured by the change in Core Damage Frequency (ΔCDF)) of the SWSPP and to identify and evaluate countermeasures to reduce the risk impact of the project activities. The study concluded that the ΔCDF would be acceptable by undertaking preventative measures and by providing additional accident mitigating measures during performance of the SWSPP activities

  19. URBAN SPRAWL MODELING, AIR QUALITY MONITORING AND RISK COMMUNICATION: THE NORTHEAST OHIO PROJECT

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Northeast Ohio Urban Sprawl, Air Quality Monitoring, and Communications Project (hereafter called the Northeast Ohio Project) provides local environmental and health information useful to residents, local officials, community planners, and others in a 15 county region in the ...

  20. Evaluating the Impact of Risk on Contractor’s Tender Figure in Public Buildings Projects in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O. Oyewobi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available It has become almost impossible to have projects completed within the initial cost and time in Nigeria; this is as a result of many factors the construction industry is being plagued with ranging from estimating risk to time and cost overruns. The construction industry is widely associated with a high degree of risk and uncertainty due to the nature of its operating heterogeneous environment. The paper aimed at evaluating the impact of estimating risk on contractor’s tender sum with a view of ensuring efficient delivery of projects in the Northern part of Nigeria. A survey was conducted using questionnaire and a total of four headings of risk factors were identified. Research findings showed defects in design, inflation, contractor’s competence and political uncertainty as well as changes in government had greatest impact on contractor’s tender figure whereas likely trend in wages rates over the period, excessive approval procedure in administration government department, unavailability of sufficient amount of unskilled labor and technical manpower and resources of the company were the most significant factors to be considered by contractors when estimating the pricing risk. The paper recommends that construction professionals should identify and adequately quantify project estimating risk factors. Adding a risk premium to quotation and time estimation has to be supported by governmental owner organizations and other agencies in the local construction sector. Competent contractors should be allowed to tender so as to see the incidence of these estimating risks as an important aspect that requires attention while evaluating contractor’s tender sum.

  1. Project Financing Strategy and Risk Control%项目融资策略及风险防范探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张军

    2013-01-01

      文章对项目融资模式的各种风险进行分析,并提出相应的风险防范对策。为此,在项目融资过程中,要根据项目战略决定其融资策略,继而选择适合自己的最佳资本结构和融资方式,防范项目风险。%This paper analyzes the various risks of project financing mode, And proposes the corresponding risk prevention measures. Therefore, in the process of financing, according to firms' own development strategy to determine their financing strategy, th us choose the appropriate optimal capital structure and financing mode, to prevent the project risk.

  2. Cardiovascular risk management in rheumatoid arthritis patients still suboptimal: the Implementation of Cardiovascular Risk Management in Rheumatoid Arthritis project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Oever, Inge A M; Heslinga, Maaike; Griep, Ed N; Griep-Wentink, Hanneke R M; Schotsman, Rob; Cambach, Walter; Dijkmans, Ben A C; Smulders, Yvo M; Lems, Willem F; Boers, Maarten; Voskuyl, Alexandre E; Peters, Mike J L; van Schaardenburg, Dirkjan; Nurmohamed, Micheal T

    2017-09-01

    To assess the 10-year cardiovascular (CV) risk score and to identify treatment and undertreatment of CV risk factors in patients with established RA. Demographics, CV risk factors and prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were assessed by questionnaire. To calculate the 10-year CV risk score according to the Dutch CV risk management guideline, systolic blood pressure was measured and cholesterol levels were determined from fasting blood samples. Patients were categorized into four groups: indication for treatment but not treated; inadequately treated, so not meeting goals (systolic blood pressure ⩽140 mmHg and/or low-density lipoprotein ⩽2.5 mmol/l); adequately treated; or no treatment necessary. A total of 720 consecutive RA patients were included, 375 from Reade and 345 from the Antonius Hospital. The mean age of patients was 59 years (s.d. 12) and 73% were female. Seventeen per cent of the patients had a low 10-year CV risk (management remains a major challenge and better awareness and management are urgently needed to reduce the high risk of CVD in the RA population. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  3. Management of radiological and non-radiological risks in a decommissioning project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deboodt, Pascal

    2002-01-01

    As already shown by Oudiz et al (1), the assessment of carcinogenic risk and the management of asbestos and ionising radiation needs to focus on three levels namely, the legal obligation level, the organisation and companies level and the work situation level. The main purpose of a paper is to provide a practical example of such management. Based on a set of four operations related to the removal of asbestos from working areas, we want to illustrate the general conclusions as presented in (1). After a short description of the SCK.CEN institution and of the BR3 decommissioning pilot project, we will present the general approach of the Health Physics and Safety at the SCK.CEN. Than, four sets of operations will be proposed. One should then stress on the driving forces and compare with the conclusions presented in (1). Lessons which have been learned will serve as conclusion, together with the remaining questions which are the questions the 4. European ALARA Network Workshop has to deal with. The examples which are presented here are certainly too limited for deriving general conclusions. The first remark we want to bring here deals with the importance of the communication at the different levels and at the different steps of the operations. Faced with unusual work circumstances, one certainly needs to develop adapted tools as far as communication is concerned. In this way, the level of the safety culture in the installations can act as a very efficient tool. A second topic, which has to be pointed out, is the commitment of all management levels. All the partners have been faced in their past to circumstances where they have to take decision. So they have built their know how and also their usual way of thinking and/or working. As a consequence of this, some resistance can exist and it is not only a question of good communication. Here, it has to do with the behaviour of people. One's has to cope with these resistances by use of an other behaviour. This requires a

  4. Evaluation of risk scores for risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes in the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Batin, P D; Hall, A S

    2009-03-01

    To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Observational study of a national registry. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.

  5. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  6. NPV risk simulation of an open pit gold mine project under the O'Hara cost model by using GAs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Franco-Sepulveda Giovanni; Campuzano Carlos; Pineda Cindy

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.

  7. Development of Optimization method about Capital Structure and Senior-Sub Structure by considering Project-Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamoto, Shigeru; Ikeda, Yuichi; Fukui, Chihiro; Tateshita, Fumihiko

    Private finance initiative is a business scheme that materializes social infrastructure and public services by utilizing private-sector resources. In this paper we propose a new method to optimize capital structure, which is the ratio of capital to debt, and senior-sub structure, which is the ratio of senior loan to subordinated loan, for private finance initiative. We make the quantitative analysis of a private finance initiative's project using the proposed method. We analyze trade-off structure between risk and return in the project, and optimize capital structure and senior-sub structure. The method we propose helps to improve financial stability of the project, and to make a fund raising plan that is expected to be reasonable for project sponsor and moneylender.

  8. The importance of a project level risk management methodology for EU Structural and Investment Funds accession in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ciprian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Accessing EU funds is considered to be an important development chance for all type of beneficiaries in Romania: public bodies, nongovernmental organizations and firms. The grounds for this are the amount of funds available per beneficiary and the co financing rate (for example, the investment projects for firms amounted up to 5 million Euro of EU funding at a EU co financing rate up to 70%. As the Romanian responsible authorities strive to conduct a fast and smooth process, the reality shows the funds accession is rather unpredictable and costly, both in terms of time consumption and financial resources. Lots of causes contribute to this situation, amongst which the inefficient risk management conducted, both by the state authorities responsible with the EU funds management and by the beneficiaries of funds. The effects are visible: a poor absorption rate of the EU structural and cohesion funds (79,23% at the level of January 2017 for the 2007-2013 financial period. The authors' research follows the importance that risk management should have in the process of managing and accessing EU funds. The research methodology starts from the responses that 170 people involved in managing EU funded projects within 2007-2013 financial period gave to an online questionnaire carried on in 2016. The focus was to establish if and how risk management methodologies/procedures/guidelines were used within the implementation of projects and in what measure this kind of approach should be compulsory or optional for the financial period 2014-2020. The research methodology further implied the analysis of key issues for projects financing such as: feasibility and opportunity determination, budgeting, projects' evaluation, etc. The main finding of the research is that applicants and beneficiaries need to implement project level risk management methodologies. Based on this, the authors propose a guideline for drafting project level risk management methodologies, that

  9. Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment, SAGE III on ISS, An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station, Schedule Risk Analysis, A Project Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonine, Lauren

    2015-01-01

    The presentation provides insight into the schedule risk analysis process used by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station Project. The presentation focuses on the schedule risk analysis process highlighting the methods for identification of risk inputs, the inclusion of generic risks identified outside the traditional continuous risk management process, and the development of tailored analysis products used to improve risk informed decision making.

  10. The integration of the risk in the governance of urban projects: a key issue for a resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

    2012-04-01

    Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. Tools and measures, structural or non-structural such as warning systems, barriers, etc do exist and could be a smart way to improve the resilience of the new urbanised areas. The technical solutions are available and efficient, but we notice that these tools are not much implemented. There is a lack of flood risk concern among the stakeholders and the inhabitants1. How landuse stakeholders could integrate the flood risk in the decision making process throughout the implementation of the urban project? Which type of governance favours an efficient development of good flood risk policy including prevention, protection and the management of the crisis? What is the "good" governance of the urban project e.g. enabling to take into account or not to forget the flood risk and to empower the (future) inhabitants? This inhabitants' empowerment includes the improvement of awareness (i.e. inhabitants being aware that they live in a flooded area) and the improvement of concern (i.e. inhabitants adopting the "right" behaviour when the risk occurs). In order to investigate how flood risk is or could be integrated in the project governance, we interviewed stakeholders (elected representatives, architects, property developers, etc.) and observed the integration or the vanishing of the risk throughout the project. In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site

  11. Ten Tips for Talking to Townies: Observations on Risk Communication from the Multihazards Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K. A.; Jones, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    The USGS’s Multihazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) seeks to demonstrate how hazard science can improve a community’s resiliency to natural hazards. To do so, it must accurately but clearly communicate scientific concepts and findings to a wide variety of nonscientist stakeholders, many of whom are technical experts in their field primarily interested in the implications of MHDP’s science for them, and relatively uninterested in the science per se. During the development and rollout of the MHDP scenarios we found several strategies of risk communication helpful. Use availability. Relate new ideas to events the audience personally observed. Avoid sensationalism, since even the appearance of an appeal to emotion seemed to undermine the credibility of the message among certain constituencies. Avoid probability. However tempted we are as scientists to emphasize the unknown, stakeholders preferred a single coherent story. We can accompany the coherent story with an acknowledgment of uncertainty and limited knowledge. Engage stakeholders in the science as early as possible. They can help ground, direct, and vet the science as it emerges, and help us avoid “spherical-cow” simplifications. Get to the point. Soundbites, despite negative connotations, promote conciseness. Emphasize consensus. While scientists are primarily interested in the boundaries of knowledge, the public is more interested in what is known, and acts more readily where there is no ambiguity. Confront misinformation. Science sometimes competes with pseudoscience for public mindspace. Where the goal is enhancing community resiliency, the competition becomes a battle. Temper talk with activities. We learn by doing, and some of us have no patience for lectures. Use engaging imagery. We found that modern media such as Youtube videos with high production quality and geospatial imagery that the public sees as cutting edge, captured people’s attention, even senior professionals and academics who

  12. Natural resource risk and cost management in environmental restoration: Demonstration project at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bascietto, J.J.; Sharples, F.E.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is both a trustee for the natural resources present on its properties and the lead response agency under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). As such, DOE is addressing the destruction or loss of those resources caused by releases of hazardous substances from its facilities (DOE 1991) and collecting data to be used in determining the extent of contamination at its facilities, estimating risks to human health and the environment, and selecting appropriate remedial actions. The remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process is used to investigate sites and select remedial actions. A Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) process may be used to determine whether natural resources have also been injured by the released hazardous substances and to calculate compensatory monetary damages to be used to restore the natural resources. In FY 1994, the Savannah River Site (SRS) was chosen to serve as a demonstration site for testing the integrated NRDA framework and demonstrating how NRDA concerns might be integrated into the environmental restoration activities of an actual site that is characteristically large and complex. The demonstration project (1) provided a means to illustrate the use of complex analyses using real information on the specific natural resources of the SRS; (2) served as a vehicle for reinforcing and expanding the SRS staff's understanding of the links between the NRDA and RI/FS processes; (3) provided a forum for the discussion of strategic issues with SRS personnel; and (4) allowed the refining and elaboration of DOE guidance by benchmarking the theoretical process using real information and issues

  13. Interdisciplinary Approach to Fall Prevention in a High-Risk Inpatient Pediatric Population: Quality Improvement Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbs, Kendra E; Sikes, Lindsay

    2017-01-01

    Within a tertiary care pediatric medical center, the largest number of inpatient falls (8.84 falls per 1,000 patient days) occurred within a 14-bed rehabilitation/transitional care unit between February and September 2009. An interdisciplinary fall prevention program, called "Red Light, Green Light," was developed to better educate all staff and family members to ensure safety of transfers and ambulation of children with neurological impairments. The purpose of this study was to develop and implement an interdisciplinary pediatric fall prevention program to reduce total falls and falls with family members present in this population. Preintervention 2009 data and longitudinal data from 2010-2014 were obtained from retrospective review of event/incident reports. This quality improvement project was based on inpatient pediatric admissions to a rehabilitation care unit accommodating children with neurological impairments. Data extraction included: total falls, falls with caregiver (alone versus staff versus family), type of falls, and falls by diagnosis. Descriptive statistics were obtained on outcome measures; chi-square statistics were calculated on preintervention and postintervention comparisons. Total falls decreased steadily from 8.84 falls per 1,000 patient days in 2009 to 1.79 falls per 1,000 patient days in 2014 (χ12=3.901, P=.048). Falls with family members present decreased 50% postintervention. (χ12=6.26, P=.012). Limitations included unit size nearly doubled postintervention, event reporting changed to both uncontrolled and controlled therapy falls (safely lowering patient to bed, chair, or floor), and enhanced reporting increased numbers of postintervention falls. The Red Light, Green Light program has resulted in reductions in overall fall rates, falls with family members present, increased staff collaboration, heightened staff and family safety awareness, and a safer environment for patients at high risk for neurological or musculoskeletal impairments

  14. Ischemic Stroke Profile, Risk Factors, and Outcomes in India: The Indo-US Collaborative Stroke Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylaja, P N; Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai; Kaul, Subhash; Srivastava, M V Padma; Khurana, Dheeraj; Schwamm, Lee H; Kesav, Praveen; Arora, Deepti; Pannu, Aman; Thankachan, Tijy K; Singhal, Aneesh B

    2018-01-01

    The Indo-US Collaborative Stroke Project was designed to characterize ischemic stroke across 5 high-volume academic tertiary hospitals in India. From January 2012 to August 2014, research coordinators and physician coinvestigators prospectively collected data on 2066 patients with ischemic stroke admitted <2 weeks after onset. Investigator training and supervision and data monitoring were conducted by the US site (Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston). The mean age was 58.3±14.7 years, 67.2% men. The median admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 10 (interquartile range, 5-15) and 24.5% had National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥16. Hypertension (60.8%), diabetes mellitus (35.7%), and tobacco use (32.2%, including bidi/smokeless tobacco) were common risk factors. Only 4% had atrial fibrillation. All patients underwent computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging; 81% had cerebrovascular imaging. Stroke etiologic subtypes were large artery (29.9%), cardiac (24.9%), small artery (14.2%), other definite (3.4%), and undetermined (27.6%, including 6.7% with incomplete evaluation). Intravenous or intra-arterial thrombolysis was administered in 13%. In-hospital mortality was 7.9%, and 48% achieved modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 2 at 90 days. On multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus predicted poor 3-month outcome and younger age, lower admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and small-artery etiology predicted excellent 3-month outcome. These comprehensive and novel clinical imaging data will prove useful in refining stroke guidelines and advancing stroke care in India. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. High-school software development project helps increasing students' awareness of geo-hydrological hazards and their risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Balducci, Vinicio; Salvati, Paola; Guzzetti, Fausto; Bianchini, Andrea; Grzeleswki, Emanuell; Canonico, Andrea; Coccia, Rita; Fiorucci, Gianni Mario; Gobbi, Francesca; Ciuchetti, Monica

    2015-04-01

    In Italy, inundation and landslides are widespread phenomena that impact the population and cause significant economic damage to private and public properties. The perception of the risk posed by these natural geo-hydrological hazards varies geographically and in time. The variation in the perception of the risks has negative consequences on risk management, and limits the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies. We maintain that targeted education can foster the understanding of geo-hydrological hazards, improving their perception and the awareness of the associated risk. Collaboration of a research center experienced in geo-hydrological hazards and risks (CNR IRPI, Perugia) and a high school (ITIS Alessandro Volta, Perugia) has resulted in the design and execution of a project aimed at improving the perception of geo-hydrological risks in high school students and teachers through software development. In the two-year project, students, high school teachers and research scientists have jointly developed software broadly related to landslide and flood hazards. User requirements and system specifications were decided to facilitate the distribution and use of the software among students and their peers. This allowed a wider distribution of the project results. We discuss two prototype software developed by the high school students, including an application of augmented reality for improved dissemination of information of landslides and floods with human consequences in Italy, and a crowd science application to allow students (and others, including their families and friends) to collect information on landslide and flood occurrence exploiting modern mobile devices. This information can prove important e.g., for the validation of landslide forecasting models.

  16. Pilot project 'Karst water Dachstein'. Vol. 2: karst hydrology and contamination risk in springs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheidleder, A.; Mandl, G.W.; Boroviczeny, F.; Hofmann, T.; Schubert, G.; Trimborn, P.; Stichler, W.; Graf, W.

    2001-01-01

    The pilot project 'Karstwasser Dachstein' aimed to ascertain the karst groundwater quality of one of the largest karst massifs in Austria, to examine and quantity the factors influencing karst groundwater quality and to gain experience in the monitoring of karst groundwater quality (Austrian Water Quality Monitoring System). The first phase of the pilot project examined comprehensively the factors influencing and the potential threats endangering karst water quality and was finished in 1994 with Vol. 1 entitled 'Karstwasserqualitaet' (HERLICSKA and LORBEER). The present study is based on the findings of the first phase of the project and aims to combine, analyze and assess the extensive quantity of data material with, special emphasis on karst hydrology and the contamination risk in springs. The interdisciplinary data analysis and the hydrogeological interpretation were carried out by the Austrian Federal Environment Agency (UBA), the Geological Survey of Austria (GBA) and the National Research Centre for Environment and Health (GSF). Their work was based on the detailed description of the geological conditions in the Dachstein area, on the thorough examination of chemical and physical spring water parameters, an isotope analyses of precipitation and spring waters as well as on the results of several tracer experiments and an investigations of the potential impacts of human activities. Investigations of the bacteriological contamination of the spring waters showed that there were only 6 out of 42 springs where there was no evidence of coliform bacteria or faecal germs. These 6 springs are all situated in the southern part of the Dachstein massif. For the analyses carried out to determine the content of chlorinated hydrocarbons, detection limits had been set very low. In all springs, evidence of chlorinated hydrocarbons was found at least once. These concentrations were all below the maximum allowable concentrations set out in the Groundwater Threshold Value

  17. The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

    2015-12-01

    In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  19. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  20. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab

  1. Transportation risk management : international practices for program development and project delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    Managing transportation networks, including agency : management, program development, and project : delivery, is extremely complex and fraught with : uncertainty. Administrators, planners, and engineers : coordinate a multitude of organizational and ...

  2. Spent nuclear fuel - how dangerous is it? A report from the project `Description of risk`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedin, A.

    1997-03-01

    This publication has been written to try to bridge the gap between the expert and the scientifically interested layman when it comes to the risks surrounding radioactive waste. The four chapters are titled `Concept of risk`, `Radiotoxicity`, `Accessibility`,and `The concept of risk applied to the deep repository`. 12 refs, 19 figs.

  3. Spent nuclear fuel - how dangerous is it? A report from the project 'Description of risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedin, A.

    1997-03-01

    This publication has been written to try to bridge the gap between the expert and the scientifically interested layman when it comes to the risks surrounding radioactive waste. The four chapters are titled 'Concept of risk', 'Radiotoxicity', 'Accessibility',and 'The concept of risk applied to the deep repository'

  4. Alcohol consumption and low-risk drinking guidelines among adults: a cross-sectional analysis from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Darren R; Haig, Tiffany R; Poirier, Abbey E; Akawung, Alianu; Friedenreich, Christine M; Robson, Paula J

    2017-12-01

    Moderate to heavy alcohol consumption is a risk factor for all-cause mortality and cancer incidence. Although cross-sectional data are available through national surveys, data on alcohol consumption in Alberta from a large prospective cohort were not previously available. The goal of these analyses was to characterize the levels of alcohol consumption among adults from the Alberta's Tomorrow Project in the context of cancer prevention guidelines. Furthermore, we conducted analyses to examine the relationships between alcohol consumption and other high-risk or risk-related behaviours. Between 2001 and 2009, 31 072 men and women aged 35 to 69 years were enrolled into Alberta's Tomorrow Project, a large provincial cohort study. Data concerning alcohol consumption in the past 12 months were obtained from 26 842 participants who completed self-administered health and lifestyle questionnaires. We conducted cross-sectional analyses on daily alcohol consumption and cancer prevention guidelines for alcohol use in relation to sociodemographic factors. We also examined the combined prevalence of alcohol consumption and tobacco use, obesity and comorbidities. Approximately 14% of men and 12% of women reported alcohol consumption exceeding recommendations for cancer prevention. Higher alcohol consumption was reported in younger age groups, urban dwellers, those with higher incomes and those who consumed more red meat. Moreover, volume of daily alcohol consumption was positively associated with current tobacco use in both men and women. Overall, men were more likely to fall in the moderate and high-risk behavioural profiles and show higher daily alcohol consumption patterns compared to women. Despite public health messages concerning the adverse impact of alcohol consumption, a sizeable proportion of Alberta's Tomorrow Project participants consumed alcohol in excess of cancer prevention recommendations. Continued strategies to promote low-risk drinking among those who choose to

  5. Impact of age on the importance of systolic and diastolic blood pressures for stroke risk: the MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Ibsen, Hans; Jørgensen, Torben; Broda, Grazyna; Palmieri, Luigi; Giampaoli, Simona; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Kee, Frank; Mancia, Giuseppe; Cesana, Giancarlo; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Sans, Susana; Olsen, Michael H

    2012-11-01

    This study investigates age-related shifts in the relative importance of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressures as predictors of stroke and whether these relations are influenced by other cardiovascular risk factors. Using 34 European cohorts from the MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project with baseline between 1982 and 1997, 68 551 subjects aged 19 to 78 years, without cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive treatment, were included. During a mean of 13.2 years of follow-up, stroke incidence was 2.8%. Stroke risk was analyzed using hazard ratios per 10-mm Hg/5-mm Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, DBP was analyzed separately for DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg and DBP <71 mm Hg. Stroke risk was associated positively with SBP and DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg (SBP/DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg; hazard ratios: 1.15/1.06 [95% CI: 1.12-1.18/1.03-1.09]) and negatively with DBP <71 mm Hg (0.88[0.79-0.98]). The hazard ratio for DBP decreased with age (P<0.001) and was not influenced by other cardiovascular risk factors. Taking into account the age × DBP interaction, both SBP and DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg were significantly associated with stroke risk until age 62 years, but in subjects older than 46 years the superiority of SBP for stroke risk exceeded that of DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg and remained significant until age 78 years. DBP <71 mm Hg became significant at age 50 years with an inverse relation to stroke risk. In Europeans, stroke risk should be assessed by both SBP and DBP until age 62 years with increased focus on SBP from age 47 years. From age 62 years, emphasis should be on SBP without neglecting the potential harm of very low DBP.

  6. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; van de Linde, W.; Kaalberg, F.

    2014-01-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the

  7. Level of Aspiration, Risk-Taking Behavior, and Projective Test Performance: A Search for Coherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefcourt, Herbert M.; Steffy, Richard A.

    1970-01-01

    Correlations were obtained between level of aspiration, gambling, and projective test variables. Achievement oriented behaviors in the level of aspiration task and in the gambling task were related to each other, and both were related to the adequacy of response to sexual stimuli in projective testing. Reprints from Herbert M. Lefcourt, Department…

  8. Deaf Effect for Risk Warnings: A Causal Examination applied to Information Systems Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.L.P. Nuijten (Arno)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractEscalation of commitment to a chosen course of action is a phenomenon that shows for example when failing strategic Information Systems (IS) projects are continued for much too long. With this study we contribute to the explanation of why managers (Project Owners) respond with the Deaf

  9. A Conflict’s Impact on Project Goals and Reputation Risk : Lessons from Kosovo Privatization Program

    OpenAIRE

    Bach, Karl

    2008-01-01

    When designing and implementing a project in a conflict-affected country, some of the conflict's more obvious impacts-damage to infrastructure and energy supplies, are apt to immediately come to mind. However, based on the experiences with the Kosovo privatization program, there are additional problems related to a conflict's aftermath that may be overlooked during a project's design but w...

  10. Formation of the portfolio of high-rise construction projects on the basis of optimization of «risk-return» rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uvarova, Svetlana; Kutsygina, Olga; Smorodina, Elena; Gumba, Khuta

    2018-03-01

    The effectiveness and sustainability of an enterprise are based on the effectiveness and sustainability of its portfolio of projects. When creating a production program for a construction company based on a portfolio of projects and related to the planning and implementation of initiated organizational and economic changes, the problem of finding the optimal "risk-return" ratio of the program (portfolio of projects) is solved. The article proposes and approves the methodology of forming a portfolio of enterprise projects on the basis of the correspondence principle. Optimization of the portfolio of projects on the criterion of "risk-return" also contributes to the company's sustainability.

  11. Matrix of risk and premium for the developing of small hydropower projects; Matriz de risco e premio para o desenvolvimento de projetos de PCHs (Pequenas Centrais Hidroeletricas)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Garcia, Marco Aurelio R.A.; Cruz, Ricardo A. Passos da

    2008-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose a method for valuation of assets of small hydroelectric plants in different stages of maturation. To this end, we adopted the principle of risk premium, associated with a portion of the profitability of the project (internal rate of return-IRR) in every stage of development. In other words: the more mature the project, the lower your risk and consequently lower the corresponding premium, adopting as a total prize the IRR expected to the project.

  12. Assessment of the Appalachian Basin Geothermal Field: Combining Risk Factors to Inform Development of Low Temperature Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. D.; Whealton, C.; Camp, E. R.; Horowitz, F.; Frone, Z. S.; Jordan, T. E.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Exploration methods for deep geothermal energy projects must primarily consider whether or not a location has favorable thermal resources. Even where the thermal field is favorable, other factors may impede project development and success. A combined analysis of these factors and their uncertainty is a strategy for moving geothermal energy proposals forward from the exploration phase at the scale of a basin to the scale of a project, and further to design of geothermal systems. For a Department of Energy Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis we assessed quality metrics, which we call risk factors, in the Appalachian Basin of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. These included 1) thermal field variability, 2) productivity of natural reservoirs from which to extract heat, 3) potential for induced seismicity, and 4) presence of thermal utilization centers. The thermal field was determined using a 1D heat flow model for 13,400 bottomhole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells. Steps included the development of i) a set of corrections to BHT data and ii) depth models of conductivity stratigraphy at each borehole based on generalized stratigraphy that was verified for a select set of wells. Wells are control points in a spatial statistical analysis that resulted in maps of the predicted mean thermal field properties and of the standard error of the predicted mean. Seismic risk was analyzed by comparing earthquakes and stress orientations in the basin to gravity and magnetic potential field edges at depth. Major edges in the potential fields served as interpolation boundaries for the thermal maps (Figure 1). Natural reservoirs were identified from published studies, and productivity was determined based on the expected permeability and dimensions of each reservoir. Visualizing the natural reservoirs and population centers on a map of the thermal field communicates options for viable pilot sites and project designs (Figure 1). Furthermore, combining the four risk

  13. Projecting invasion risk of non-native watersnakes (Nerodia fasciata and Nerodia sipedon in the western United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan P Rose

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly used to project the potential distribution of introduced species outside their native range. Such studies rarely explicitly evaluate potential conflicts with native species should the range of introduced species expand. Two snake species native to eastern North America, Nerodia fasciata and Nerodia sipedon, have been introduced to California where they represent a new stressor to declining native amphibians, fish, and reptiles. To project the potential distributions of these non-native watersnakes in western North America, we built ensemble SDMs using MaxEnt, Boosted Regression Trees, and Random Forests and habitat and climatic variables. We then compared the overlap between the projected distribution of invasive watersnakes and the distributions of imperiled native amphibians, fish, and reptiles that can serve as prey or competitors for the invaders, to estimate the risk to native species posed by non-native watersnakes. Large areas of western North America were projected to be climatically suitable for both species of Nerodia according to our ensemble SDMs, including much of central California. The potential distributions of both N. fasciata and N. sipedon overlap extensively with the federally threatened Giant Gartersnake, Thamnophis gigas, which inhabits a similar ecological niche. N. fasciata also poses risk to the federally threatened California Tiger Salamander, Ambystoma californiense, whereas N. sipedon poses risk to some amphibians of conservation concern, including the Foothill Yellow-legged Frog, Rana boylii. We conclude that non-native watersnakes in California can likely inhabit ranges of several native species of conservation concern that are expected to suffer as prey or competing species for these invaders. Action should be taken now to eradicate or control these invasions before detrimental impacts on native species are widespread. Our methods can be applied broadly to quantify

  14. Risk and mitigation in the privately financed hydropower project Birecik, Turkey; Privat finanzierte Wasserkraft, Birecik, Tuerkei - Risiken und Risikoverteilung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koselleck, F.; Ishay, D. [PH Ventures GmbH, Neu-Isenburg (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    The 627 MW Hydroelectric Power Plant Birecik, Turkey, is the largest privately financed hydropower project realized wordwide under a BOT (Build Operate Transfer) scheme. The total investment volume adds up to almost 1 Bll Euro. Ther financial structure of the project mostly relies on export credits, which have been arranged under an international consortium of 50 banks. A complex contractual structure between the government, the investors and the contractors succeeded in establishing a fair risk mitigation mechanism, which was a central factor for the overall success of the project. [German] Das 672 MW Wasserkraftwerk Birecik, Tuerkei, ist mit einem Investitionsvolumen von rund Euro 1 Mrd. das bisher weltweit groesste Wasserkraftprojekt, das nach dem BOT-Modell realisiert wurde. Die auf Exportkredite basierende Finanzierung wurde ueber ein internationales Konsortium von 50 Banken dargestellt. Eine komplexe Vertragsstruktur zwischen dem Staat, den Investoren und den Auftragsnehmern fuehrte zu einem ausgeglichenen Risikoverteilungsmechanismus, der ausschlaggebend fuer den Erfolg des Projektes war. (orig.)

  15. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed

  16. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  17. Projected global health impacts from severe nuclear accidents: Conversion of projected doses to risks on a global scale: Experience from Chernobyl releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catlin, R.J.; Goldman, M.; Anspaugh, L.R.

    1988-01-01

    Estimates of projected collective dose and average individual dose commitments from Chernobyl releases were made for various regions. Consideration was given to the possible effectiveness of protective actions taken by various countries to reduce projected doses to their populations. Although some preliminary data indicate possible mean reductions of about 25% in total collective doses over the first year, and of about 55% in collective dose to the thyroid, no corrections were made to these dose estimates because of the variable nature of the data. A new combined set of dose-effect models recently published by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission was then applied to estimate the ranges of possible future additional health effects due to the Chernobyl accident. In this method possible health effects are estimated on an individual site basis and the results are then summed. Both absolute and relative risk projection models are used. By use of these methods, ''best'' estimates of possible additional health effects were projected for the Northern Hemisphere as follows: 1) over the next 50 years, up to 28 thousand radiation-induced fatal cancers, compared to an expected 600 million cancer deaths from natural or spontaneous causes; 2) over the next year, up to 700 additional cases of severe mental retardation, compared to a normal expectation of 340 thousand cases; and 3) in the first generation, up to 1.9 thousand radiation-induced genetic disorders, compared to 180 million naturally-occurring cases. The possibility of zero health effects at very low doses and dose rates cannot be excluded. Owing to the very large numbers of naturally-occurring health effects, it is unlikely that any additional health effects will be demonstrable except, perhaps, for the more highly exposed population in the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl. 13 refs, 4 figs, 6 tabs

  18. Risk assessment guidance document for the UMTRA project groundwater remediation phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-05-01

    The purpose of the groundwater remedial activities at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) sites is to reduce, control, or eliminate risks to human health and the environment. This is in accordance with Subpart B of 40 CFR 192. According to this regulation, the need for groundwater restoration is based upon US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-defined groundwater cleanup standards and must be consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. Risk assessments will be used in the UMTRA Groundwater Program to aid in the evaluation of sites. Risk assessments are conducted for four purposes: (1) Preliminary risk assessments are used to aid in prioritizing sites, scope data collection, end determine if a site presents immediate health risks. (2) Baseline risk assessments provide a comprehensive integration and interpretation of demographic, geographic, physical, chemical, and biological factors at a site to determine the extent of actual or potential harm. This information Is used to determine the need for remedial action. (3) Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives is performed to evaluate risks to humans or the environment associated with the various remedial strategies. (4) After remediation, an evaluation of residual risks is conducted. The information gathered for each of these risk evaluations is used to determine the need for subsequent evaluation. Several sites may be eliminated after a preliminary risk assessment if there is no current or future threat to humans or the environment. Likewise, much of the data from a baseline risk assessment can be used to support alternate concentration limits or supplemental standards demonstrations, or identify sensitive habitats or receptors that may be of concern in selecting a remedy

  19. Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Hu, Dongsheng; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Huang, Jianfeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Fangchao; Cao, Jie; Shen, Chong; Yu, Ling; Lu, Fanghong; Wu, Xianping; Zhao, Liancheng; Wu, Xigui; Gu, Dongfeng

    2016-11-08

    The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ 2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ 2 values in men. Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Project-induced displacement and resettlement : from impoverishment risks to an opportunity for development?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2017-01-01

    While the World Bank safeguard policies and International Finance Corporation Performance Standards specify the requirements to be observed when project-induced displacement and resettlement occurs, these international standards are not always followed. Governments often invoke the power of eminent

  1. Coast Guard: Progress Being Made on Deepwater Project, but Risks Remain

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    The Coast Guard is in the final stages of planning the largest procurement project in its history the modernization and/or replacement of over 90 cutters and 200 aircraft used for missions beyond 50 miles from shore...

  2. The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egidi, Demetrio; Foraboschi, Franco P.; Spadoni, Gigliola; Amendola, Aniello

    1995-01-01

    The paper describes the ARIPAR project aimed at the assessment of the major accident risks connected with storage, process and transportation of dangerous substances in the densely populated Ravenna area in Italy, which includes a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants and minor industries, essentially distributed around an important commercial port. Large quantities of dangerous goods are involved in various transportation forms connected with the industrial and commercial activity of the port. The project started by making a complete inventory of fixed installations and transportation activities capable of provoking major fire, explosion and toxic release events; then relevant accident scenarios were developed for the single hazard sources; probabilities were assigned to the events and consequences were evaluated; finally iso-risk contours and F-N diagrams were evaluated both for the single sources and for the overall area. This required the development of a particular methodology for analysis of area risk and of associated software packages which allowed examination of the relative importance of the different activities and typologies of materials involved. The methodological approach and the results have proved to be very useful for the priority-ranking of risk mitigating interventions and physical planning in a complex area

  3. The RACER (risk analysis, communication, evaluation, and reduction) stakeholder environmental data transparency project for Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echohawk, John Chris; Dorries, Alison M.; Eberhart, Craig F.; Werdel, Nancy

    2008-01-01

    The RACER (Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction) project was created in 2003, as an effort to enhance the Los Alamos National Laboratory's ability to effectively communicate the data and processes used to evaluate environmental risks to the public and the environment. The RACER project staff consists of members of Risk Assessment Corporation, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). RACER staff worked closely with members of the community, tribal governments, and others within NMED and LANL to create innovative tools and a process that could provide information to regulators, LANL and the community about the sources of public health risk and ecological impact from LAN L operations. The RACER Data Analysis Tool (DA T) provides the public with webbased access to environmental measurement data collected in and around the LANL site. Its purpose is to provide a 'transparent' view to the public of all data collected by LANL and NMED regarding the LANL site. The DAT is available to the public at 'www.racernm.com'.

  4. Considerations for the Estimation of the Risk of Environmental Contamination Due to Blow Out in Offshore Exploratory Drilling Projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-01-01

    From the consideration of a contemporary society based on the need of a high-level complex technology with a high intrinsic level of uncertainty and its relationship with risk assessment, this analysis, conducted in late 2014, was developed from that that led the Secretary of State for the Environment to the Resolution of 29 May 2014, by which the Environmental Impact Statement of the Exploratory Drilling Project in the hydrocarbons research permits called ''Canarias 1-9// was set out and published in the Spanish Official State Gazette number 196 on 13rd August 2014. The aim of the present study is to analyze the suitability with which the worst case associated probability is identified and defined and its relation to the total risk estimate from a blow out. Its interest stems from the fact that all risk management methodologically rests on two pillars, i.e., on a sound risk analysis and evaluation. This determines the selection of management tools in relation to its level of complexity, the project phase and its potential impacts on the health, safety and environmental contamination dimensions.

  5. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  6. Risk Assessment of Pollution Emergencies in Water Source Areas of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Luyao; Feng, Minquan

    2018-03-01

    [Objective] This study quantitatively evaluated risk probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents under the influence of risk sources, thus providing an important guarantee for risk source identification during water diversion from the Hanjiang River to the Weihe River. [Methods] The research used Bayesian networks to represent the correlation between accidental risk sources. It also adopted the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to combine water quality simulation with state simulation of risk sources, thereby determining standard-exceeding probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents. [Results] When the upstream inflow was 138.15 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0416 and 0.0056 separately. When the upstream inflow was 55.29 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0225 and 0.0028 separately. [Conclusions] The research conducted a risk assessment on sudden water pollution accidents, thereby providing an important guarantee for the smooth implementation, operation, and water quality of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project.

  7. Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2010-01-01

    Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....

  8. Project SisterCircle: Risk, Intersectionality, and Intervening in Urban Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Wendi; Karlin, Thomas; Wallace, Deidre

    2012-01-01

    Adolescent Black/African descent and Latina girls in urban environments are at heightened risk for the negative consequences of sexual risk. Intervention programming that accounts for the intersection of adolescent girls' racial/ethnic cultural experiences and gender are likely to be most effective in minimizing their vulnerability for sexual…

  9. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  10. Yucca Mountain socioeconomic project report on the 1987 risk perception telephone surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunreuther, H.; Nigg, J.; Desvousges, W.H.

    1987-09-01

    The measurement of the risk-related impacts from the siting of a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository represents a new and important addition to conventional socioeconomic impact studies. In particular, the driving forces behind these impacts are the risks people perceive to be associated with the repository. Measuring the risk impacts requires a complementary set of approaches, of which, risk surveys are the cornerstone.a The purpose of these surveys is to provide scientifically defensible measures of the risk-related impacts. The risk surveys follow directly from a conceptual framework of how the HLNW repository affects peoples' perceptions and, ultimately, their behaviors. These surveys describe and measure: Characteristics of individuals, Risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, Views, or mind sets, they form about the HLNW repository, Changes in behaviors--e.g., changes in retirement decisions or industrial relocations--induced by the location of the repository, and Changes in well-being of Nevada citizens, if the repository were located at Yucca Mountain

  11. Yucca Mountain socioeconomic project report on the 1987 risk perception telephone surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunreuther, H. [Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States). Wharton School of Finance and Commerce; Slovic, P. [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States); Nigg, J. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Desvousges, W.H. [Research Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1987-09-01

    The measurement of the risk-related impacts from the siting of a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository represents a new and important addition to conventional socioeconomic impact studies. In particular, the driving forces behind these impacts are the risks people perceive to be associated with the repository. Measuring the risk impacts requires a complementary set of approaches, of which, risk surveys are the cornerstone.a The purpose of these surveys is to provide scientifically defensible measures of the risk-related impacts. The risk surveys follow directly from a conceptual framework of how the HLNW repository affects peoples` perceptions and, ultimately, their behaviors. These surveys describe and measure: Characteristics of individuals, Risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, Views, or mind sets, they form about the HLNW repository, Changes in behaviors--e.g., changes in retirement decisions or industrial relocations--induced by the location of the repository, and Changes in well-being of Nevada citizens, if the repository were located at Yucca Mountain.

  12. Project financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowan, A.

    1998-01-01

    Project financing was defined ('where a lender to a specific project has recourse only to the cash flow and assets of that project for repayment and security respectively') and its attributes were described. Project financing was said to be particularly well suited to power, pipeline, mining, telecommunications, petro-chemicals, road construction, and oil and gas projects, i.e. large infrastructure projects that are difficult to fund on-balance sheet, where the risk profile of a project does not fit the corporation's risk appetite, or where higher leverage is required. Sources of project financing were identified. The need to analyze and mitigate risks, and being aware that lenders always take a conservative view and gravitate towards the lowest common denominator, were considered the key to success in obtaining project financing funds. TransAlta Corporation's project financing experiences were used to illustrate the potential of this source of financing

  13. Summary of literature review of risk communication: Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byram, S.J.

    1991-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project will estimate radiation exposures people may have received from radioactive materials released during past operations at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. The project is being conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under the direction of an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP). The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) will use HEDR dose estimates in studies to investigate a potential link between thyroid disease and historical Hanford emissions. The HEDR Project was initiated to address public concerns about the possible health impacts from past releases of radioactive materials from Hanford. The TSP recognized early in the project that special mechanisms would be required to communicate effectively to the many different concerned audiences. To identify and develop these mechanisms, the TSP issued Directive 89-7 to PNL in May 1989. The TSP directed PNL to examine methods to communicate the causes and effects of uncertainties in the dose estimates. A literature review was conducted as the first activity in response to the TSP's directive. This report presents the results of the literature review. The objective of the literature review was to identify ''key principles'' that could be applied to develop communications strategies for the project. 26 refs., 6 figs

  14. Chernobyl risk reduction via ventilation stack repair: a successful international project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gore, B.F.; Glukhov, A.Y.; Schmidt, J.P.; Vargo, G.I.; Osterloh, J.V.; Kupny, V.I.; Korneev, A.A.; Matvejev, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The recently completed project to repair the ChNPP Unit 3/4 ventilation stack is the first international project providing a direct physical improvement and safety upgrade at the Shelter (Ukrytie) facility. The 1986 explosion at Chernobyl NPP Unit 4 severely damaged the ventilation stack framework of bracing and its foundation. At one node, where six elements of the framework joined together, one element was completely missing one element was torn from the node and left hanging from its other end, and one element was badly bent and dented. Foundation supports were knocked measurably off plumb. Repair of the ChNPP ventilation stack is the first international project providing direct physical improvement and safety upgrade at the Shelter facility. The repairs have restored the stack to full design strength, from an emergency condition with a high probability of collapse

  15. ITEM Project: Risk Communication on Exposure to Electromagnetic Radiation from Mobile Communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Carla; Carpinteiro, Goncalo; Correia, Luis M.; Fernandes, Carlos A.; Serralha, Afonso; Marques, Nuno

    2004-01-01

    The ITEM Project is a pioneer project in Portugal, providing public information on exposure to electromagnetic radiation, essentially due to mobile communication systems. The motivation, the main goals and the Project description are presented in this paper, as well as the website that provides the public dissemination of results and further significant information (www.lx.it.pt/item). This site provides information on different issues related to exposure to radiation, namely results of measurement campaigns conducted by a team on several locations in Portugal, and results of continuous measurements performed by autonomous stations located in public places in collaboration with municipal authorities. The global overview of the results from the measurement campaigns carried out up to present shows that all the analysed locations are in compliance with the radiation thresholds, i.e., all the electric field measured values are below the most restrictive threshold established at European level. (author)

  16. Role of exposure in projected residential building cyclone risk for the Australian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Denis; Cechet, Bob; Arthur, Craig

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology to analyse the direct impact of tropical cyclone hazard on communities in northern Australia. The study focuses on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of the cyclonic wind hazard, and location. Storm surge impacts were developed using a simple relationship between intensity and storm surge height and mid-point sea-level rise projections. The impact on residential building stock of severe wind and storm surge hazards associated with IPCC climate change scenarios is considered. Changes in residential building stock, for over 500 coastal statistical local areas (SLAs) from Southeast Queensland anticlockwise to Perth, were estimated using Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections through to 2100. A Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve was derived, and the average annual cost across a 5000 year period (or 'annualised loss') was evaluated for each region. The projected population growth and the drift to coastal locations are significant elements in determining the damage associated with possible future cyclone threat.

  17. Blue Book: EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document presents EPA estimates of cancer incidence and mortality risk coefficients pertaining to low dose exposures to ionizing radiation for the U.S. population, as well as their scientific basis.

  18. Assessing forest influences on torrential hazards and risks: IRSTEA mission within the European H2020 project NAIAD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piton, Guillaume; Tacnet, Jean Marc; Berger, Frédéric; Curt, Corinne; Curt, Thomas; Arnaud, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    NAIAD (NAture Insurance value: Assessment and Demonstration) is a H2020 European project gathering 23 partners interested in ecosystems services related to water. The project more specifically links nature services to the assurance world and aims to operationalise "Natural Assurance Schemes", defined as a range of schemes to internalise the value of ecosystems services, e.g., the buffering role of river systems against water risks, in insurance policies. It is based on an assessment methodology that includes the physical, socio-cultural and valuation aspects of ecosystems services in relation to water, adapted to the institutional frame to align economic incentives and financial flows. Within the NAIAD projet, IRSTEA will more specifically try to highlight the role of mountain forests in torrential flood hazards and risks. The forest eventually acts on hydrology by buffering part of the rainwater. Vegetation has also a key role in soil conservation by curtailing primary sediment production in the hillslopes. Conversely, woody debris dramatically aggravate hazards by clogging bridges and key protections structures as open check dams. Finally this dual role may change in time due to the forest vulnerability to climatic, biologic or physical changes, e.g. after a wildfire. The first project step will be an extensive literature review on all these effects. Secondly indicators describing the torrential systems will be proposed and link to variably pronounced influence of forest. In a third time, case studies will be undertaken. The dramatic flood that occur in the region of Nice in summer 2015 (20 fatalities) will probably be used as a benchmark test. Several scenarios of alternative forest and river managements under varying climate forcing will be tested later. Complete torrential risk assessment studies will be performed on several sites within this project, with and without the forest influences in order to highlight its role. Numerous check dams have been built in

  19. Circulating Vitamin D and Colorectal Cancer Risk: An International Pooling Project of 17 Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Marjorie L; Zoltick, Emilie S; Weinstein, Stephanie J; Fedirko, Veronika; Wang, Molin; Cook, Nancy R; Eliassen, A Heather; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Agnoli, Claudia; Albanes, Demetrius; Barnett, Matthew J; Buring, Julie E; Campbell, Peter T; Clendenen, Tess V; Freedman, Neal D; Gapstur, Susan M; Giovannucci, Edward L; Goodman, Gary G; Haiman, Christopher A; Ho, Gloria Y F; Horst, Ronald L; Hou, Tao; Huang, Wen-Yi; Jenab, Mazda; Jones, Michael E; Joshu, Corinne E; Krogh, Vittorio; Lee, I-Min; Lee, Jung Eun; Männistö, Satu; Le Marchand, Loic; Mondul, Alison M; Neuhouser, Marian L; Platz, Elizabeth A; Purdue, Mark P; Riboli, Elio; Robsahm, Trude Eid; Rohan, Thomas E; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Sieri, Sabina; Stampfer, Meir J; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Thomson, Cynthia A; Tretli, Steinar; Tsugane, Schoichiro; Ursin, Giske; Visvanathan, Kala; White, Kami K; Wu, Kana; Yaun, Shiaw-Shyuan; Zhang, Xuehong; Willett, Walter C; Gail, Mitchel H; Ziegler, Regina G; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A

    2018-06-14

    Experimental and epidemiological studies suggest a protective role for vitamin D in colorectal carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations that minimize risk are unknown. Current Institute of Medicine (IOM) vitamin D guidance is based solely on bone health. We pooled participant-level data from 17 cohorts, comprising 5706 colorectal cancer case participants and 7107 control participants with a wide range of circulating 25(OH)D concentrations. For 30.1% of participants, 25(OH)D was newly measured. Previously measured 25(OH)D was calibrated to the same assay to permit estimating risk by absolute concentrations. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) for prediagnostic season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random effects models. Compared with the lower range of sufficiency for bone health (50-<62.5 nmol/L), deficient 25(OH)D (<30 nmol/L) was associated with 31% higher colorectal cancer risk (RR = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.62); 25(OH)D above sufficiency (75-<87.5 and 87.5-<100 nmol/L) was associated with 19% (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.99) and 27% (RR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.91) lower risk, respectively. At 25(OH)D of 100 nmol/L or greater, risk did not continue to decline and was not statistically significantly reduced (RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.67 to 1.24, 3.5% of control participants). Associations were minimally affected when adjusting for body mass index, physical activity, or other risk factors. For each 25 nmol/L increment in circulating 25(OH)D, colorectal cancer risk was 19% lower in women (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.87) and 7% lower in men (RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.00) (two-sided Pheterogeneity by sex = .008). Associations were inverse in all subgroups, including colorectal subsite, geographic region, and season of blood collection. Higher circulating 25(OH)D was related to a statistically

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  1. Managing Risk on a Technology Development Project/Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byberg, Alicia; Russell, J. Kevin; Stahl, Phil (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The risk management study applied to the Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator (AMSD), a precursor mirror technology development for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) is documented. The AMSD will be developed as a segment of a lightweight primary mirror system that can be produced at a low cost and with a short manufacturing schedule. The technology gained from the program will support the risk mitigation strategy for the NGST, as well as other government agency space mirror programs.

  2. Risk levels for suffering a traffic injury in primary health care. The LESIONAT* project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bel Jordi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Literature shows that not only are traffic injuries due to accidents, but that there is also a correlation between different chronic conditions, the consumption of certain types of drugs, the intake of psychoactive substances and the self perception of risk (Health Belief Model and the impact/incidence of traffic accidents. There are few studies on these aspects in primary health care. The objectives of our study are: Main aim: To outline the distribution of risk factors associated with Road Traffic Injuries (RTI in a driving population assigned to a group of primary health care centres in Barcelona province. Secondly, we aim to study the distribution of diverse risk factors related to the possibility of suffering an RTI according to age, sex and population groups, to assess the relationship between these same risk factors and self risk perception for suffering an RTI, and to outline the association between the number of risk factors and the history of reported collisions. Methods/Design Design: Cross-sectional, multicentre study. Setting: 25 urban health care centres. Study population: Randomly selected sample of Spanish/Catalan speakers age 16 or above with a medical register in any of the 25 participating primary health care centres. N = 1540. Unit of study: Basic unit of care, consisting of a general practitioner and a nurse, both of whom caring for the same population (1,500 to 2,000 people per unit. Instruments of measurement: Data collection will be performed using a survey carried out by health professionals, who will use the clinical registers and the information reported by the patient during the visit to collect the baseline data: illnesses, medication intake, alcohol and psychoactive consumption, and self perception of risk. Discussion We expect to obtain a risk profile of the subjects in relation to RTI in the primary health care field, and to create a group for a prospective follow-up. Trial Registration

  3. The Dunedin Dementia Risk Awareness Project: a convenience sample of general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barak, Yoram; Rapsey, Charlene; Fridman, Dana; Scott, Kate

    2018-05-04

    Recent recommendations of US and UK governmental and academic agencies suggest that up to 35% of dementia cases are preventable. We aimed to appraise general practitioners' (GPs) awareness of risk and protective factors associated with dementia and their intentions to act within the context of the Health Beliefs Model. We canvassed degree of dementia awareness, using the modified Lifestyle for Brain Health (LIBRA) scale among a convenience sample of local GPs. Thirty-five GPs, mean age 56.7 + 6.8 years (range: 43-72) participated. There were 19 women and 16 men, all New Zealand European. Genetics was the most commonly cited risk for dementia and exercise the most commonly cited protective factor. More than 80% of participants correctly identified 8/12 LIBRA factors. Factors not identified were: renal dysfunction, obesity, Mediterranean diet and high cognitive activity. The majority of participants felt they were at risk of suffering from dementia, that lifestyle changes will help reduce their risk and wished to start these changes soon. GPs are knowledgeable about dementia risk and protective factors. They reported optimism in their ability to modify their own risk factors through lifestyle interventions. This places GPs in a unique position to help disseminate this knowledge to their clients.

  4. Greater ability to express positive emotion is associated with lower projected cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Natalie L; Adams, Kathryn S; Pressman, Sarah D; Consedine, Nathan S

    2017-12-01

    Positive emotion is associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, yet some mechanisms remain unclear. One potential pathway is via emotional competencies/skills. The present study tests whether the ability to facially express positive emotion is associated with CVD risk scores, while controlling for potential confounds and testing for sex moderation. Eighty-two men and women underwent blood draws before completing self-report assessments and a performance test of expressive skill. Positive expressions were scored for degree of 'happiness' using expression coding software. CVD risk scores were calculated using established algorithms based on biological, demographic, and behavioral risk factors. Linear regressions revealed a main effect for skill, with skill in expressing positive emotion associated with lower CVD risk scores. Analyses also revealed a sex-by-skill interaction whereby links between expressive skill and CVD risk scores were stronger among men. Objective tests of expressive skill have methodological advantages, appear to have links to physical health, and offer a novel avenue for research and intervention.

  5. Prevalence and determinants of cardiovascular disease risk factors among the residents of urban community housing projects in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mohammadreza; Majid, Hazreen Abdul; Hairi, FarizahMohd; Thangiah, Nithiah; Bulgiba, Awang; Su, Tin Tin

    2014-01-01

    The objectives are to assess the prevalence and determinants of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among the residents of Community Housi