The risk components of liquidity

OpenAIRE

Chollete, Lorán; Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.

2008-01-01

Does liquidity risk differ depending on our choice of liquidity proxy? Unlike literature that considers common liquidity variation, we focus on identifying different components of liquidity, statistically and economically, using more than a decade of US transaction data. We identify three main statistical liquidity factors which are utilized in a linear asset pricing framework. We motivate a correspondence of the statistical factors to traditional dimensions of liquidity as well as the notion...

Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Bareikaitė

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia Benito Muela

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

The regulatory treatment of liquidity risk in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johann Jacobs

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The Basel accord describes the regulatory capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk. The accord aims to provide guidelines to level the playing field for all internationally active banks and to protect consumers against these risks. Despite the growing significance to bank solvency of liquidity risk, it is omitted from the new accord2. Banks are not required to measure and manage this risk yet they are often considerably exposed to the threat of severely diminished liquidity. This omission from the accord could have dire consequences for banks and the economy in which they operate: liquidity crises can occur without warning and spread quickly to other parts of the financial system. This article critically explores current practices in South Africa and proposes guidelines for effective liquidity risk regulation.

Liquidity Risk Sensitivity of Czech Commercial Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavla Vodová

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The recent financial crisis has shown that a liquidity risk plays an important role in the current developed financial system. One of the efficient tools of liquidity risk management is stress testing which can show banks their potential vulnerability to liquidity shocks. The aim of this paper is therefore to measure the liquidity risk sensitivity of Czech commercial banks and to find out the most severe scenario and the most vulnerable bank. Our sample included significant part of the Czech banking sector; we used unconsolidated balance sheet data over the period from 2000 to 2011 which were obtained from annual reports of Czech banks. We have evaluated liquidity risk of each bank in the sample via six different liquidity ratios. Then we stressed these baseline values in three stress scenarios: run on a bank (simulated by a 20% withdrawal of deposits, confidence crisis on the interbank market (simulated by a withdrawal of 20% of interbank deposits and use of committed loans by counterparties (simulated by a 5% increase of loans provided to nonbank clients. We measured the impact of all scenarios by relative change of liquidity ratios. The impact of modelled liquidity shocks differs among scenarios. The most serious liquidity problems would be caused by the first scenario – run on a bank. The negative influence of third scenario (use of committed loans is less severe. The confidence crisis on the interbank market would not affect bank liquidity at all. The results also show that the severity of the impact of all scenarios worsens in periods of financial distress. We have also found that large and medium sized banks are most vulnerable to liquidity shocks, mainly to massive deposit withdrawals.

Uncertain Portfolio Selection with Background Risk and Liquidity Constraint

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Jia Zhai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses an uncertain portfolio selection problem with consideration of background risk and asset liquidity. In addition, the transaction costs are also considered. The security returns, background asset return, and asset liquidity are estimated by experienced experts instead of historical data. Regarding them as uncertain variables, a mean-risk model with background risk, liquidity, and transaction costs is proposed for portfolio selection and the crisp forms of the model are provided when security returns obey different uncertainty distributions. Moreover, for better understanding of the impact of background risk and liquidity on portfolio selection, some important theorems are proved. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the modeling idea.

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

2016-01-01

We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

Rollover risk, liquidity and macroprudential regulation

OpenAIRE

Ahnert, Toni

2014-01-01

I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post. Precautionary liquidity restores multiple equilibria in a global rollover game. An intermediate liquidity level supports both the usual run equilibrium and an efficient equilibrium. I provide a uniqueness refinement to characterize the privately optimal liquidity choice. Because of fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitutes. Intermediaries f...

Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perotti, E.

2011-01-01

How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential

Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds

OpenAIRE

Foran, Jason; O'Sullivan, Niall

2014-01-01

We examine the role of liquidity risk, both as a stock characteristic as well as systematic liquidity risk, in UK mutual fund performance for the first time. Using four alternative measures of stock liquidity we extract principal components across stocks in order to construct systematic or market liquidity factors. We find that on average UK mutual funds are tilted towards liquid stocks (except for small stock funds as might be expected) but that, counter-intuitively, liquidity as a stock cha...

Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.

2012-01-01

We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia

Liquidity constraints, risk premia, and themacroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks

OpenAIRE

Jaccard, Ivan

2013-01-01

We study the transmission of liquidity shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms and households are subject to liquidity risk. The provision of liquidity services is undertaken by financial intermediaries that allocate the stock of liquid asset between the different sectors of the economy. We find that the macroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks are considerably larger in the model economy that generates a realistic equity premium. Liquidity constraints amplify business cycl...

Bank liquidity risk management: A South African survey to determine future change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Claassen

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In 2008 the global financial system and, more particularly, the world banking system suffered a financial crisis worse than any earlier crises. The financial crunch brought to light that liquidity risk management in banks poses a problem, and that the world’s financial institutions will have to change their current practices as it relates to this risk. Apart from the importance of liquidity and the risk that it may cause, the integrated nature of all risks made banks more aware of the fact that none of these risks can be managed in isolation. For various reasons, South African banks were not as exposed to the problems experienced in the global context. However, SA banks may have learned new lessons from the crisis and may plan to change the way they manage liquidity risk in particular, in the future. In order to determine how SA banks perceive liquidity management and liquidity risk, a survey of all SA banks was carried out. The majority of respondents indicated that the financial crisis reminded them of the importance of liquidity risk management in the South African banking system as well as the global banking system. The majority of banks rate all the liquidity risk management tools as extremely important and rate corporate governance, strategy, policy and risk tolerance, liquidity risk measurement and intra-day liquidity as their number one priority. Basel III is generally perceived as being effective, but 30% of respondents perceived it as neither effective nor ineffective, because South African banks already have similar measures in place

Liquidity Risk and Distressed Equity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medhat, Mamdouh

I show theoretically and empirically that cash holdings can help rationalize the low returns to distressed equity. In my model, levered firms with financing constraints optimally choose their cash holdings to eliminate liquidity risk and optimally default when insolvent. Using data on solvency......, liquidity, and returns for US firms, I find evidence consistent with the model’s predictions: (1) In all solvency levels, the average firm holds enough liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities; less solvent firms have (2) a higher fraction of their total assets in liquid assets and therefore (3......) lower conditional betas and (4) lower returns; (5) the profits of long-short solvency strategies are highest among firms with low liquidity; and (6) the profits of long-short liquidity strategies are highest among firms with low solvency....

Determinants of Liquidity Risk in Indonesian Islamic and Conventional Banks

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Raditya Sukmana

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to examine the causes of the liquidity risk  in Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia using panel data regression method. The study found the significant and positive relation of ROA and NPF with the liquidity risk, whereas the negative and significant relation of CAR with the liquidity risk in Indonesian Conventional Banks. Meanwhile in Islamic banks, CAR result significantly positive effect on liquidity risk, while ROA shows negative and significant result. Possible explanation for this is that, given the huge profit by the conventional banks, it has more chance to allocate it as liquidity reserve as well as increasing the facilities (improvement on technology. When the NPL is high, conventional banks will increase the liquid assets as a buffer. Unlike that of conventional banks, the Islamic banks in Indonesia might allocate capital as liquidity reserves and might allocate ROA in fixed assets or financing or technology. The result confirm that the role of capital and bank’s performance in indeed important to the banking liquidityDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i2.2871

Liquidity and Credit Risk in Fixed Income Markets

OpenAIRE

Vonhoff, Volker

2011-01-01

1 Introduction 2 The Term Structure of Liquidity Premia in the U.S. Treasury Market 3 Liquidity Premia in the Market for German Bunds and STRIPS 4 Liquidity and Credit Risk Premia in the Pfandbrief Market

On strategic default and liquidity risk

OpenAIRE

Tambakis, Demosthenes N

2002-01-01

How does the uncertain provision of external finance affect investment projects' default probability and liquidity risk? In this paper, I study the strategic interaction between many creditors and a single borrower in the context of a two-period investment project requiring external credit. Loans mature in one period but the project requires two periods to complete. The key working assumptions are that creditors are risk-averse and that any uncertainty is common knowledge: information about ...

Rollover risk, liquidity, and macro-prudential regulation

OpenAIRE

Ahnert, Toni

2014-01-01

I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex-ante and are subject to fire sales ex-post. I demonstrate that precautionary liquidity restores multiple equilibria in a global rollover game. An intermediate liquidity level supports both the usual run equilibrium and an efficient equilibrium. I provide a uniqueness refinement to characterize the privately optimal liquidity choice. Because of fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitute...

Liquidity and Transparency in Bank Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Lev Ratnovski

2013-01-01

Banks may be unable to refinance short-term liabilities in case of solvency concerns. To manage this risk, banks can accumulate a buffer of liquid assets, or strengthen transparency to communicate solvency. While a liquidity buffer provides complete insurance against small shocks, transparency covers also large shocks but imperfectly. Due to leverage, an unregulated bank may choose insufficient liquidity buffers and transparency. The regulatory response is constained: while liquidity buffers ...

The liquidity management of institutional investors and the pricing of liquidity risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xing, Ran

2016-01-01

This dissertation studies how mutual funds and hedge funds manage their liquidity and reduce trading costs, and the pricing of liquidity level and liquidity risk in financial markets. Chapter 1 documents the trading behavior of actively managed equity mutual funds from the perspective of their

75 FR 13656 - Interagency Policy Statement on Funding and Liquidity Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-22

... Interagency Policy Statement on Funding and Liquidity Risk Management AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the... policy statement summarizes the principles of sound liquidity risk management that the agencies have.... Ray Diggs, Group Leader: Balance Sheet Management, Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-5670...

Risk of thyroid cancer among Chernobyl liquidators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Kesminiene, Ausrele; Tenet, Vanessa; Cardis, Elisabeth; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Chekin, Sergei; Malakhova, Irina V.; Polyakov, Semion; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Gavrilin, Yuri; Golovanov, Ivan; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Maceika, Evaldas; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.

2008-01-01

Full text: While the increased risk of thyroid cancer is well demonstrated in people exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated areas around the Chernobyl power plant, following the accident which took place on 26 April 1986, the effect of exposure on adults remains unclear. A collaborative case-control study of thyroid cancer was set-up, nested within cohorts of Belarus, Russian and Baltic countries liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, to evaluate the radiation-induced risk of this disease among liquidators, and to assess the roles of screening and of radiation exposures in the observed increased thyroid cancer incidence among liquidators. The study population consisted of the cohorts of approximately 66,000 Belarus, 65,000 Russian and 15,000 Baltic countries liquidators who took part in the clean-up activities on the reactor site and in the 30-km zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 1987. The liquidators were mainly exposed to external radiation, although substantial dose to the thyroid from iodine isotopes may have been received by liquidators who worked in May-June 1986 and by those who resided in the most contaminated territories of Belarus. Information was collected on study subjects by use of a standardized questionnaire that was administrated during a face-to-face interview with the study subject and/or a proxy (a relative or a colleague). The interview included questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and on potential risk and confounding factors for thyroid cancer. A method of analytical dose reconstruction, entitled RADRUE (Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation) was developed within the study and applied to estimate individual doses to the thyroid from external radiation and related uncertainties for each subject. Approaches to derive individual thyroid dose estimates from inhaled and

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LIQUIDITY RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costea Ciprian-Dan

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The credit institutions management faces nowadays new and important challenges, of which the most important is the central role the liquidity risk management takes in the overall banking management complexity. This shows that liquidity risk in at the top of attention in the modern banking management, all the other banking risks being subsequent to this one. International regulations and settlers come to sustain the rising importance of liquidity risk in modern credit institution management.

The regulatory treatment of liquidity risk in South Africa / Johann R.G. Jacobs

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, Johann Renier Gabriel

2008-01-01

South Africa will be implementing Basel II on 1 January 2008. Basel II provides regulatory capital requirements for credit risk, market risk and operational risk. The purpose of capital requirements is to level the playing field for all internationally active banks and to protect consumers against these risks. Although there is an obvious threat of liquidity risk and it is important to correctly measure and manage liquidity risk, it is almost glaringly omitted from Basel II. The result of...

Essays on bank liquidity : contributions to the measurement of liquidity risk and to the management of bank liquidity production

OpenAIRE

Soula , Jean-Loup

2017-01-01

Bank liquidity risk reflects the function of banks to create liquidity. Banks are fragile, exposed to the possibility of runs from short-term creditors. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of bank liquidity risk. The second chapter proposes a measure of bank fragility based on the value of the assets held by a bank. Results confirm, in an original way, the fragile nature of banks. However, bank liquidity creation benefits to the economy. The third chapter analyses the capa...

A consensus view on liquidity risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acharya, V.; Krishnamurthy, A.; Perotti, E.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk - which was at the heart of the September 2008 financial meltdown and explains regulatory concerns about a Greek default today - remains an open issue in financial regulatory reform. This column presents a consensus view of several leading academics on what more needs to be done to

A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hull, L.C.

1995-10-01

DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, L.C.

1995-10-01

DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.J.A.G. Driessen (Joost); R. Xing (Rang)

2016-01-01

textabstractRecent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment

Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P

We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)

Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.

Recent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment opportunity set. We

Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

OpenAIRE

Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

2012-01-01

In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

2002-01-01

The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

1976-07-01

Results are summarized of the risk assessments of shipping PuO 2 powder and liquid Pu nitrate by truck and rail in the U.S. In the analysis method used, the system is described, potential release sequences are identified and evaluated (fault tree used), and the system risk is assessed. It is concluded that: there is little difference in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk for liquid shipment; the vermiculite loss is somewhat less important in rail shipment; and the response of the L-10 container to crush is more important in rail transport

Management of Liquidity Risk Using Foreign Exchange Swap Contracts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivica Prga

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Croatian banks, like the other world banks, are exposed to liquidity risk. This is very significant question to them, particularly in this complex and crisis time. Therefore, the Croatian banks pay much attention to the management of liquidity. In these attempts, the banks use various derivative financial instruments of which the foreign exchange swap contracts are particularly remarkable.

Liquidity risk and profitability: An assessment of Nigerian banks ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

International Journal of Development and Management Review ... The paper examines liquidity risk and profitability from the Nigerian banking sector perspective. ... financial system, which in turn would assist financial institutions to evaluate ...

Risk of hematological malignancies among Chernobyl liquidators

Science.gov (United States)

Kesminiene, Ausrele; Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Malakhova, Irina V.; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Anspaugh, Lynn R.; Bouville, André; Chekin, Sergei; Chumak, Vadim V.; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Gapanovich, Vladimir; Golovanov, Ivan; Hubert, Phillip; Illichev, Sergei V.; Khait, Svetlana E.; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Maceika, Evaldas; Maksyoutov, Marat; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.; Polyakov, Semion; Shchukina, Natalia; Tenet, Vanessa; Tserakhovich, Tatyana I.; Tsykalo, Aleksandr; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Cardis, Elisabeth

2010-01-01

A case-control study of hematological malignancies was conducted among Chernobyl liquidators (accident recovery workers) from Belarus, Russia and Baltic countries in order to assess the effect of low-to-medium dose protracted radiation exposures on the relative risk of these diseases. The study was nested within cohorts of liquidators who had worked in 1986–87 around the Chernobyl plant. 117 cases (69 leukemia, 34 non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and 14 other malignancies of lymphoid and hematopoietic tissue) and 481 matched controls were included in the study. Individual dose to the bone marrow and uncertainties were estimated for each subject. The main analyses were restricted to 70 cases (40 leukemia, 20 NHL and 10 other) and their 287 matched controls with reliable information on work in the Chernobyl area. Most subjects received very low doses (median 13 mGy). For all diagnoses combined, a significantly elevated OR was seen at doses of 200 mGy and above. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) per 100 mGy was 0.60 (90% confidence interval (CI): −0.02, 2.35). The corresponding estimate for leukemia excluding chronic lymphoid leukemia (CLL) was 0.50 (90%CI −0.38, 5.7). It is slightly higher than, but statistically compatible with, those estimated from a-bomb survivors and recent low dose-rate studies. Although sensitivity analyses showed generally similar results, we cannot rule out the possibility that biases and uncertainties could have led to over or underestimation of the risk in this study. PMID:19138033

Application of probabilistic risk assessment to advanced liquid metal reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carroll, W.P.; Temme, M.I.

1987-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) has been active in the development and application of probabilistic risk assessment methods within its liquid metal breeder reactor development program for the past eleven years. These methods have been applied to comparative risk evaluations, the selection of design features for reactor concepts, the selection and emphasis of research and development programs, and regulatory discussions. The application of probabilistic methods to reactors which are in the conceptual design stage presents unique data base, modeling, and timing challenges, and excellent opportunities to improve the final design. We provide here the background and insights on the experience which the US DOE liquid metal breeder reactor program has had in its application of probabilistic methods to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant project, the Conceptual Design State of the Large Development Plant, and updates on this design. Plans for future applications of probabilistic risk assessment methods are also discussed. The US DOE is embarking on an innovative design program for liquid metal reactors. (author)

Risk comparison of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Dong

1997-01-01

The risk of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing is estimated and compared. The conclusions obtained are that risk difference from these strategies is very small and high level liquid waste can be reduced to middle and low level waste, if the decontamination factor for 99 Tc is large enough, which is the largest risk contributor in the high level radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing. It is also shown that the risk of high level radioactive waste could be reduced by the technical strategy of combining partitioning and transmutation

Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk among Chernobyl liquidators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesminiene, Ausrele; Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Tenet, Vanessa; Elisabeth, Cardis; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Chekin, Sergei; Khait, Svetlana E.; Maksyoutov, Marat; Shchukina, Natalia; Malakhova, Irina V.; Polyakov, Semion; Tserakhovich, Tatyana I.; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Anspaugh, Lynn R.; Chumak, Vadim V.; Gapanovich, Vladimir; Golovanov, Ivan; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Hubert, Phillip; Illichev, Sergei V.; Maceika, Evaldas; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.; Tsykalo, Aleksandr

2008-01-01

Full text: Chernobyl liquidators were workers involved in the clean-up of contaminated areas around the Chernobyl power plant following the accident on 26 April 1986. These workers form a potentially important population for evaluation of the effects of protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. A collaborative case-control study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) was set-up, nested within cohorts of Belarus, Russian and Baltic countries liquidators. The objective was to evaluate the radiation-induced risk of these diseases in this population and to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiogenic cancer in the low to medium (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consisted of approximately 66,000 Belarus, 65,000 Russian and 15,000 Baltic countries liquidators who took part in the clean-up activities between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 1987. In Belarus and Russia, liquidators are followed through the Chernobyl Registries and must undergo regular health check-ups, while in the Baltic countries their migration, vital and cancer status are assessed through population, death and cancer registries. The case ascertainment period ranged from 1990 to 2000 with minor differences among the countries. Information on study subjects was obtained through a face-to-face interview with the study subject and/or a proxy (a relative or a colleague), using a standardized questionnaire on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and on potential risk and confounding factors for leukaemia. A method of analytical dose reconstruction, entitled RADRUE (Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation), was developed within the study, validated and applied to estimate individual dose to the bone marrow and related uncertainties for each subject. 117 cases (69 leukaemia, 34 NHL and 14 other malignancies of lymphoid and haematopoietic tissue) and 481 matched controls were

Risk management for whales

OpenAIRE

Cont, R; Wagalath, L

2016-01-01

We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

Derivative pricing with liquidity risk : Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

2011-01-01

We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of

The Nature and Assessment of Systemic Risk in Terms of Liquidity of the Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lavreniuk Vladyslav V.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the nature of systemic risk as a threat to the financial stability of the banking system and develop analytical tools to assess its impact on the banking system in terms of its liquidity. To solve the tasks assigned, there used general scientific and specific methods, such as: logical and dialectical method, mathematical and graphical one. Based on the generalization, analysis and comparison of different interpretations, there clarified the concept of «systemic risk» as a risk generated by financial institutions or individual sectors through the implementation of the mechanism of risk transmission, achieving significant scale of distribution and adversely affecting the stability of the financial system and the real sector of economy. There identified key aspects of systemic risk: a systemic risk is not a sum of all individual risks of financial institutions; b spreads through the channels of interconnectedness between financial institutions; c is a result of accumulated structural imbalances; d affects the stability of the financial/banking system, public confidence and the real sector of economy. Analytical tools for estimation of the bank’s contribution to the systemic liquidity risk on the basis of which it is determined that the first place in terms of the effect on the aggregate systemic risk of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system is occupied by banks of Group I, the second place — by Privatbank, the third, fourth, fifth places — by banks in Group II — Oschadbank, Ukreximbank. It is found that it is systemically important state-owned banks that have a significant impact on systemic liquidity risk. It is determined that the probability of default of a leading systemically important bank could result in considerable cumulative losses for the entire banking system and real economy. The prospects of further research are the development of tools for systemic risk assessment with respect to

Informational Capacity of the Financial Statements of Brazilian Banks: An Analysis from the Perspective of Liquidity Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orleans Silva Martins

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the financial statements of Brazilian banks, from the perspective of liquidity risk by exploring whether the Statements of Cash Flows and Notes to these companies meet the requirements concerning the dissemination of liquidity risk demands by IFRS 7 and the principles of the Basel Committee. Additionally, we investigated whether the coefficients of box cover these companies, calculated from the DFC, show some respect to compliance with those requirements. For that, was raised a theoretical framework about liquidity and liquidity risk, and the role of DFC and Notes before the disclosure of information relating to liquidity. Accordingly, an exploratory study was conducted with the 28 companies that comprise the Banks segment of the BM&F Bovespa, through its financial statements for the year 2009. The main results indicate a low capacity of these informative statements about the situation and liquidity risk, given that only 60.71% of the requirements contained in the standards were met. Still, we conclude that the mere fact that it has good cash coverage ratios is not a necessary condition to be among the companies that meet the disclosure requirements of the situation and liquidity risk, or vice versa. Thus, even when companies have good liquidity indicators, the information required by the IASB and the BCBS has not been disclosed in its financial statements.

Concentration risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matić Vesna

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

Environmental risk prediction and emergency plan for liquid ammonia leakage fault

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Zhanfei; Lian Guoxi; Zhang Yuntao; Sun Juan; Du Juan

2014-01-01

Taking liquid ammonia storage in a uranium production process as an example, a multi-puff Gassian model was used to predict and analyze the environmental risk under the scenario of the maximum credible accident as well as the most unfavorable weather conditions. According to the results of prediction, the suggestions for safety evacuation and evacuation way were made, thus providing theoretical basis and technical guideline for uranium mine making risk management and contingency plan. (authors)

The banking system of liquidity risk management in commercial banks in Kosovo for 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adnan Berisha

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The financial system in general and banking system in particular in Kosovo, is one of the most stable sectors, even though the Kosovo Economy is not in any enviable position and a stable financial system which would have an impact on greater economic growth. The focus of this research will be in the structure and organization of the financial system in Kosovo with particular emphasis on Kosovo's banking system for 2015. In this research we are focused on the Commercial Banks operating in the framework of the banking sector in Kosovo, what is their capital, how many banks have local- and how many have foreign capital, by whom are licensed and supervised, how is the loans potential of commercial banks in Kosovo, how much and how was the variation of interest rates on loans and deposits for 2015 and their comparison with the previous year, what is capital sufficiency and how many commercial banks do have liquidity in Kosovo? Kosovo banking sector exposure to risk will also have a special attention where it is known that there are several types of financial risk and they are: crediting risk, liquidity risk, market risk, operational risk, etc. Our interest in this research will be focused on liquidity risk and the analysis about the management of each bank including some specific regulative frameworks such as: framework of the Basel Committee known as Basel I, Basel II and more recently Basel III, which have strict rules and which change from time to time depending on financial flows or potential crises.

Risk assessment and quality improvement of liquid waste management in Taiwan University chemical laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Chao-Chung; Chen, Ming-Shu

2018-01-01

The policy of establishing new universities across Taiwan has led to an increase in the number of universities, and many schools have constructed new laboratories to meet students' academic needs. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of laboratory accidents from the liquid waste in universities. Therefore, how to build a safety system for laboratory liquid waste disposal has become an important issue in the environmental protection, safety, and hygiene of all universities. This study identifies the risk factors of liquid waste disposal and presents an agenda for practices to laboratory managers. An expert questionnaire is adopted to probe into the risk priority procedures of liquid waste disposal; then, the fuzzy theory-based FMEA method and the traditional FMEA method are employed to analyze and improve the procedures for liquid waste disposal. According to the research results, the fuzzy FMEA method is the most effective, and the top 10 potential disabling factors are prioritized for improvement according to the risk priority number (RNP), including "Unclear classification", "Gathering liquid waste without a funnel or a drain pan", "Lack of a clearance and transport contract", "Liquid waste spill during delivery", "Spill over", "Decentralized storage", "Calculating weight in the wrong way", "Compatibility between the container material and the liquid waste", "Lack of dumping and disposal tools", and "Lack of a clear labels for liquid waste containers". After tracking improvements, the overall improvement rate rose to 60.2%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and modelling of liquidity risk under the Basel III rules

OpenAIRE

Turkuner, Ercan

2016-01-01

In compliance with Basel III rules this study aims to create a model capable of generating a balance sheet. In the light of several hypotheses and general data about Turkish Banking System the model generates a balance sheet and, hence Basel III liquidity ratios could be set their threshold values. Besides, with the sensitivity analysis possible impacts of balance sheet structure on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio which promotes the short-term resilience of the liquidity risk profiles of banks h...

The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

OpenAIRE

Kwamie Dunbar

2008-01-01

Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

Bank and sovereign debt risk

OpenAIRE

Darracq Paries, Matthieu; Faia, Ester; Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego

2013-01-01

Euro area data show a positive connection between sovereign and bank risk, which increases with banks' and sovereign long run fragility. We build a macro model with banks subject to incentive problems and liquidity risk (in the form of liquidity based banks' runs) which provides a link between endogenous bank capital and macro and policy risk. Our banks also invest in risky government bonds used as capital buffer to self-insure against liquidity risk. The model can replicate the positive conn...

Systematic risk and liquidity : an empirical study comparing Norwegian equity certificates before and after the regulation in 2009

OpenAIRE

Hatlevik, Håkon; Einvik, Christian

2014-01-01

In 2009, the Norwegian savings banks industry was subject to a regulation change, which resulted in a modification of the instrument issued by these banks. Thus, in this empirical study we compare the systematic risk and liquidity of equity certificates issued by Norwegian savings banks before and after the regulation change. We go about estimating systematic risk and liquidity using regression analysis. In order to estimate systematic risk we use the empirical model of the CAPM often referre...

Liquid Pipeline Operator's Control Room Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management Guide

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-26

The purpose of this guide is to document methodologies, tools, procedures, guidance, and instructions that have been developed to provide liquid pipeline operators with an efficient and effective means of managing the human factors risks in their con...

Development of a risk-based inservice inspection program for a liquid metal reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

1996-01-01

The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. EBR-II is liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor which operated for thirty years before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the liquid-metal reactor design, e.g., demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low pressure primary coolant and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. Many of the systems cannot be inspected due to inaccessibility of the components. However, application of a risk-based approach provided the basis for reducing or eliminating inspections in some areas that would otherwise be required. Development and implementation of the risk-based ISI program was interrupted by the DOE-mandated shutdown of EBR-II, so the potential benefits of this approach in terms of reduced O and M costs have yet to be realized. Through the development of this program, however it is clear that there is potential for substantial cost-savings while improving the risk-profile of the facility through this approach

Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

2008-01-01

We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

1997-11-01

The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Ihor; Voloshyn, Mykyta

2013-01-01

In this article, on the basis of the "cash flow at risk" approach, the system of the integrated (credit, market, operational and liquidity risks) risk management in a market-maker commercial bank is developed. This system guarantees reaching profitability, liquidity and coverage of banking risks and thus allows the fullest protection of the interests of depositors, creditors and shareholders of the bank providing its sustainable development.

Bank Risk Taking and Liquidity Creation Following Regulatory Interventions and Capital Support

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

2011-01-01

During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

Bank risk taking and liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

2011-01-01

During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Analysis of The Influence of Liquidity, Credit and Operational Risk, in Indonesian Islamic Bank’s Financing for The Period 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ousmane Diallo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of credit, liquidity and operational risks in six Indonesian’s islamic banking financing products namely mudharabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh, in order to try to discover whether or not Indonesian islamic banking is based on the “risk-sharing” system. This paper relies on a fixed effect model test based on the panel data analysis method, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2013. The research is an exploratory and descriptive study of all the Indonesian islamic banks that were operating in 2013. The results of this study show that the Islamic banking system in Indonesia truly has banking products based on “risk-sharing.” We found out that credit, operational and liquidity risks as a whole, have significant influence on mudarabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is a correlation between the credit risk and mudarabah based financing, and no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharaka, murabahah, ijarah, istishna and qardh based financing. There is also correlation between the operational risk and mudarabah and murabahah based financing, and no causal relationship between the operational risk and musharaka, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is correlation between the liquidity risk and istishna based financing, and no causal relationship between the liquidity risk and musharaka, mudarabah, murabahah, ijarah and qardh based financing. A major implication of this study is the fact that there is no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharakah based financing, which is the mode of financing where the islamic bank shares the risk with its clients, but there is an influence of credit risk toward mudarabah mode financing, a financing mode where the Islamic bank bears all the risk. These findings can lead us to conclude that the Indonesian Islamic banking sector is based on the “risk

The exposure of microfinance institutions to financial risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Gietzen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the exposure of microfinance institutions to liquidity-, interest rate and foreign exchange (FX risk. Using manually collected data from microfinance institutions’ financial reporting, I find that the microfinance sector faces minimal liquidity risk, high interest rate risk and a lower than commonly assumed exposure to FX risk. Linking risk exposure to institutional characteristics, the data shows that legal status and regional affiliation are correlated with risk exposure while regulatory quality is not. Results suggest that the development community may not expect large benefits from expanding the plethora of current measures taken to mitigate liquidity or FX risk.

High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

Empirical Essays on the Stock Returns, Risk Management, and Liquidity Creation of Banks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Y. Xu (Ying)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis thesis consists of three studies that respectively investigate the stock returns, risk management, and liquidity creation of banks. Chapter 2 focuses on the cross-section of bank stock returns and found that pricing factors such as leverage and beta, shown to be irrelevant to

Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfiana

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Reexamining the empirical relation between loan risk and collateral:the roles of collateral liquidity and types

OpenAIRE

Berger, Allen N.; Frame, W. Scott; Ioannidou, Vasso

2016-01-01

This paper offers a possible explanation for the conflicting results in the literature concerning the empirical relation between collateral and loan risk. We posit that differences in collateral characteristics, such as liquidity, may be associated with the empirical dominance of different risk-collateral relations implied by economic theory. Using credit registry data and a novel identification strategy to control for borrower and lender selection effects allows us to differentiate between t...

The Impact of the Term Auction Facility on the Liquidity Risk Premium and Unsecured Interbank Spreads

OpenAIRE

Syrstad, Olav

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility (TAF) in alleviating the liquidity shortage in USD and reducing the spread between the 3-month Libor rate and the expected policy rate. I construct a proxy for the 3-month liquidity risk premium based on data from the FX forward market which enables me to (i) decompose the Libor spread into a liquidity premium and a credit premium, and (ii) test the effectiveness of the TAF in reducing the liquidity premi...

Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

伊斯兰银行业流动性风险管理探析%Liquidity Risk Management of Islamic Banking

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

宋玉颖

2014-01-01

Liquidity risk management is the focus of the current China’s financial institutions risk management con-cerns.Contract characteristics and business philosophy make its liquidity risk management more complicated.The reason why Islamic Banks were not been affected during the global financial crisis while keeping a fast growth speed is mainly due to the particularity of the Islamic Banks liquidity risk management.The essence of Islamic Bank is the characteristics of Is-lam;Islamic Banks liquidity risk management is the embodiment of the Islamic ethics and cultural value.Islamic Banks liquidity risk management has both unique advantage and also faces many challenges.%流动性风险管理是当前我国金融机构风险管理关注的焦点问题。在伊斯兰教法的约束下，伊斯兰银行的合约特点和经营理念使其流动性风险管理更加复杂。伊斯兰银行在全球金融危机中所受到冲击较小，没有发生流动性危机并保持较快增长速度的主要原因在于伊斯兰银行流动性风险管理的特殊性。伊斯兰教背景是伊斯兰银行的本质特点，伊斯兰银行的流动性风险管理也是伊斯兰道德伦理和文化价值的体现。伊斯兰银行流动性风险管理既有独特优势也面临诸多挑战。

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

Risk-Based Radioactive Liquid Effluent Monitoring Requirements at the U. S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jannik, G.T.

2001-01-01

For Department of Energy (DOE) facilities, clear regulatory guidance exists for structuring radiological air emissions monitoring programs. However, there are no parallel regulations for radiological liquid effluent monitoring programs. In order to bridge this gap and to technically justify liquid effluent monitoring decisions at DOE's Savannah River Site, a graded, risk-basked approach has been established to determine the monitoring and sampling criteria to be applied at each liquid discharge point

Use of nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blinov, N.N.; Guslistyj, V.P.; Misyurev, A.V.; Novitskaya, N.N.; Snigireva, G.P.

1993-01-01

Attempt of using of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect the risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects was described. 14 hematologic, biochemical and biophysical blood serum parameters of the group of liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident impact as well as the group of donors free of any radiation dose (controlled group) were taken as the diagnostic parameters. Modification of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition based on the assessment calculations were used. The patients were divided into risk group at the truth ∼ 80%

Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

1996-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM's Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable

Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

OpenAIRE

Michel Rochette

2002-01-01

In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

Bank risk, bailouts and ambiguity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijskens, R.G.M.

2012-01-01

The theoretical analysis in the second part investigates the effect of liquidity assistance and bailouts on bank risk taking and liquidity choice. Furthermore, it explores the possibilities for central banks to create ambiguity about liquidity assistance, thereby influencing bank choices. The

Interbank lending, network structure and default risk contagion

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Minghui; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-03-01

This paper studies the default risk contagion in banking systems based on a dynamic network model with two different kinds of lenders' selecting mechanisms, namely, endogenous selecting (ES) and random selecting (RS). From sensitivity analysis, we find that higher risk premium, lower initial proportion of net assets, higher liquid assets threshold, larger size of liquidity shocks, higher proportion of the initial investments and higher Central Bank interest rates all lead to severer default risk contagion. Moreover, the autocorrelation of deposits and lenders' selecting probability have non-monotonic effects on the default risk contagion, and the effects differ under two mechanisms. Generally, the default risk contagion is much severer under RS mechanism than that of ES, because the multi-money-center structure generated by ES mechanism enables borrowers to borrow from more liquid banks with lower interest rates.

Analysis And Comments On The Consultative Document: International Framework For Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards And Monitoring

OpenAIRE

Jacques Prefontaine; Jean Desrochers; Lise Godbout

2010-01-01

The market turmoil that began in mid-2007 re-emphasized the importance of liquidity to the functioning of financial markets and the banking sector. In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a consultative document entitled: “International Framework for Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards and Monitoring”. Interested parties were invited to provide written comments by April 16th 2010. Given our interest in prom...

Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

1976-01-01

This paper presents an analysis method developed to assess the risk in the transportation of radioactive materials and demonstrates its application by summarizing the results of risk assessments of the shipment of plutonium dioxide powder and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail in the United States. In the risk assessment, postulated release modes (series of events that could result in a release of radioactive material) are identified using the fault tree analysis method. Two categories of events that could contribute to a release during transportation are considered: accidents and substandard packaging conditions. The likelihood of basic events in these categories are determined from general accident experience, radioactive material shipping experience, engineering analysis, etc. Using the laws of combining probabilities, the likelihood of radioactive material release is then evaluated. Since accidents vary greatly in severity, the releases from these postulated events also vary in magnitude from the no release condition up through release of the entire package contents. The bases for the release quantities assigned to the postulated accidents sequences are discussed. The consequences of these postulated releases are evaluated based on the amount of plutonium estimated to be released to the environs, the probable weather conditions at the time of the accident, and population density downwind from the accident scene. The likelihood and consequence of postulated releases are coupled and expressed as a risk spectra. (author)

Liquid hydrocarbons from coal beds – risk factor for the underground work environment - Case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomescu Cristian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Liquid hydrocarbons from the coal bed and surrounding rocks, besides the stored gases, methane, carbon dioxide, carbon oxide, generate the increase of the risk factor from the occupational health and safety point of view. If for reducing the gas concentrations level and the methane emissions in order to increase the safety in exploitation exist well-known solutions and methods, the oxidation or self-oxidation of the hydrocarbons from the coal bed generate a series of compounds, reaction products over maximum admitted concentrations which give birth to a toxic atmosphere and which is hazardous for workers, at the same time inducing an error in noting the occurrence of a spontaneous combustion phenomena, a major risk for the workers and for the mineral resource. This paper represents a case study performed in one underground mine unit from Jiu Valley and presents the analysis for underground environment factors monitoring and for solutions for diminishing the OHS risk factors.

The simple analytics of systemic liquidity risk regulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

2011-01-01

How to regulate systemic risk? This column presents a new CEPR discussion paper assessing the performance of Pigouvian taxes and quantity-based regulations in containing the social costs of high-risk banking. It finds that, depending on how banks differ, the socially efficient solution may be

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

ASPECTS CONCERNING THE DETERMINATION OF BANKRUPTCY RISK BY SOLVENCY AND LIQUIDITY RATIOS IN THE COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodor Hada

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents issues related to determining the bankruptcy risk for 64 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.The purpose of this paper is to determine the percentage of companies falling within the normal range. In the introduction, we set the goal, the research methodology, and the novelty value of this work. Hereinafter, we presented different views of risk concepts, bankruptcy, solvency and liquidity. After that, based on theoretical presentations, a case study was conducted to determine the solvency and liquidity ratios. In the end, on the basis of the above considerations, the conclusions were established and some proposals were listed.

Farmers risk perception and risk management strategies in an emerging mussel aquaculture industry in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahsan, Dewan; Roth, Eva

2010-01-01

The aim of this exploratory study is to provide empirical insight into how the mussel farmers perceive and manage risks. The results show that future price and demand of mussel are the high ranked perceived risk. Bad weather, oxygen depletion, harmful algal blooms, E-coli, change in governmental...... regulation and public view towards mussel culture are also considered important risk factors in mussel farming. On the other hand, produced at lowest possible cost, cooperative marketing, good relation with government, prioritize liquidity, adopt new technology and experience sharing are perceived most...

NEW CHALLENGES OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BANKS IN THE GLOBALISATION CONTEXT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălin SABĂU

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to address the growing need for new standards in the management of two major risks financial entities face - credit risk and liquidity risk, in the context of this phenomenon extremely large and complex called globalization, by identifying risks, analyzing them and presenting their management techniques. Taking into account the fact that the banking system plays a crucial role in any national economy as a central pillar in its functions: lending the real economy and acting as a payment system-base regulation and prudential supervision of the banking system is the main component and also a prerequisite for ensuring and maintaining the financial and economic health of a country. Regardless of the approach, credit risk is the main cause of bank failures and from here the need for the imposition of minimum requirements in managing credit risk and also liquidity risk is seen as the risk of disruptions in providing liquid funds of the bank. The ultimate goal of this paper is to minimize the consequences arising from the banks activity or at least allow it to absorb only the optimal amount of this type of risk.

The Relationship between Sentiment and Risk in Financial Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Luiza Paraboni

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article estimates association coefficients between measures of market sentiment and risk in the U.S., German and Chinese markets. In terms of risk, four measures were considered: standard deviation, value at risk, expected shortfall and shortfall deviation risk. For market sentiment, data was collected using the Psych Signal technology, which is based on the behavior of investors on social networks. The results indicate significant statistical associations, with the direction of association having financial meaning. Moreover, the empirical findings are valid for all risk measurements. The results are in keeping with the Prospect Theory, since in moments when the sentiment indicates low liquidity (a negative value for the difference between Bullish and Bearish Intensities investors try to reduce the negotiation volume, which has a positive impact on risk. On the other hand, under the inverted scenario, when sentiment indicates high liquidity, there is an increase in the negotiation volume and a consequent decrease in risk. This article is important because its observations of market sentiment as measured by social media data show a consistent relationship with measures of financial risk.

Trading and risk management during the transition to competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmer, A.

2001-01-01

This power point presentation outlined the risks facing companies active in competitive energy markets. It reviewed and explained various types of risks including physical, market, credit, liquidity, volumetric and operational risks. The management of price risks includes trading and risk management strategies aimed at exploiting the alternatives associated with highly volatile power and fuel markets. The presentation also reviewed financial energy management in terms of the fuel markets and wholesale markets. Approaches to trading were also presented. tabs., figs

VAR, stress-testing and supplementary methodologies: uses and constraints in energy risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senior, Brian

1999-01-01

This chapter lists some of the special risks associated with a range of energy markets, and questions what is risk. Market risk, the use of value-at-risk (VAR) for measuring and managing market risk, use of VAR in the banking sector, back-testing of VAR, the corporate sector, making investment decisions, and the need for additional methods of risk analysis are discussed. Scenario analysis and stress testing, liquidity, and combining VAR and stress-testing are described. Credit risk and the quantitative analysis of credit risk are addressed, and operational risk, and organisational challenges are considered. Panels present examples of a simple VAR calculation and give descriptions of VAR in corporate decisions, the measurement of liquidity, and the use of the Greeks in decisions on day to day trading and risk management

An empirical investigation on ranking financial risk factors using AHP method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Ghodrati

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper determines and ranks financial risk factors in Iranian corporations, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP. The present research includes one main question and four sub- questions. Its universe population includes managers, production and financial personnel of great corporations activating in Tehran Stock Exchange, who were selected to explain importance and weight of economic risks indices. The source of great corporations recognition is the Companies Registration Organization in Tehran Province, and according to this, there are 120 corporations. The results have indicated that financing risk maintains the highest priority followed by credit risk, liquidity risk, inflation risk and exchange risk. In terms of different risks associated with financing risk, risk of profit per share has been the number one priority followed by the risk of divisional profit per share, the risk of recessionary or boom and the risk of increasing partial pay profit rate. In terms of credit risk, the risk of loan has been number one priority followed by the risk of inability of loan payment and interest payment. Liquidity risk is another risk factor where demand has been the most important factor followed by rules and regulations and inflation risk. In terms of inflation, producers price risk has been the most important factor followed by consumer price risk, gross domestic product and producers price risk. Finally, in terms of different factors influencing exchange risk, export related issues are considered as the most important factors.

A Coupled System of Integrodifferential Equations Arising in Liquidity Risk Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, Huyen; Tankov, Peter

2009-01-01

We study the mathematical aspects of the portfolio/consumption choice problem in a market model with liquidity risk introduced in (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear). In this model, the investor can trade and observe stock prices only at exogenous Poisson arrival times. He may also consume continuously from his cash holdings, and his goal is to maximize his expected utility from consumption. This is a mixed discrete/continuous time stochastic control problem, nonstandard in the literature. We show how the dynamic programming principle leads to a coupled system of Integro-Differential Equations (IDE), and we prove an analytic characterization of this control problem by adapting the concept of viscosity solutions. This coupled system of IDE may be numerically solved by a decoupling algorithm, and this is the topic of a companion paper (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear)

Risk Management in the banking and insurance sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim Mala

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Risk management is becoming an integral part of every organization, especially for the banking and Insurance sector because of their high-risk business. Both sectors try to manage the risks of their clients and their own risks. But, challenges in the banking and insurance industry are frequently influenced by the liquidity rations and the amount and quality of capital as ground requirements for risk management. The risk exposure in recent times is becoming more complex, more dynamic and diverse. Hence, we need to understand the risks which can be taken and the risks which should be avoided. In the other side insurance policies are long term, enabling insurers to stabilize the financial system and oft en insurance is the final transfer of risk. In this paper we will analyze an overview of risk management in the banking and insurance sector.

Calculation of risk-based detection limits for radionuclides in the liquid effluents from Korean nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheong, Jae Hak

2017-01-01

In order to review if present detection limits of radionuclides in liquid effluent from nuclear power plants are effective enough to warrant compliance with regulatory discharge limits, a risk-based approach is developed to derive a new detection limit for each radionuclide based on radiological criteria. Equations and adjustment factors are also proposed to discriminate the validity of the detection limits for multiple radionuclides in the liquid effluent with or without consideration of the nuclide composition. From case studies to three nuclear power plants in Korea with actual operation data from 2006 to 2015, the present detection limits have turned out to be effective for Hanul Unit 1 but may not be sensitive enough for Kori Unit 1 (8 out of 14 radionuclides) and Wolsong Unit 1 (9 out of 42 radionuclides). However, it is shown that the present detection limits for the latter two nuclear power plants can be justified, if credit is given to the radionuclide composition. Otherwise, consideration should be given to adjustment of the present detection limits. The risk-based approach of this study can be used to determine the validity of established detection limits of a specific nuclear power plant. (author)

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

2012-02-15

The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

Performance and Risk: Empirical Evidence from Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS)

OpenAIRE

Nayan, Norma

2017-01-01

The paper aims to recognize the relationship between risk and profit in the company Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS). This company is one of the leading companies in oil and gas industry, therefore, knowing the risk taken by the company and their management and the impact on the profit to the shareholder. The main focus in this paper is to recognized risk especially in operational risk, liquidity risk and credit risk while the profit is indicate by using ROA, ROE, Profit Margin Ratio, D...

Human health risk assessment of chloroxylenol in liquid hand soap and dishwashing soap used by consumers and health-care professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Yost, Lisa J; Rodricks, Joseph D; Turnbull, Duncan; DeLeo, Paul C; Nash, J Frank; Quiñones-Rivera, Antonio; Carlson, Pete A

2016-10-01

A quantitative human risk assessment of chloroxylenol was conducted for liquid hand and dishwashing soap products used by consumers and health-care workers. The toxicological data for chloroxylenol indicate lack of genotoxicity, no evidence of carcinogenicity, and minimal systemic toxicity. No observed adverse effect levels (NOAEL) were established from chronic toxicity studies, specifically a carcinogenicity study that found no cancer excess (18 mg/kg-day) and studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity (100 mg/kg-day). Exposure to chloroxylenol for adults and children was estimated for two types of rinse-off cleaning products, one liquid hand soap, and two dishwashing products. The identified NOAELs were used together with exposure estimates to derive margin of exposure (MOE) estimates for chloroxylenol (i.e., estimates of exposure over NOAELs). These estimates were designed with conservative assumptions and likely overestimate exposure and risk (i.e., highest frequency, 100% dermal penetration). The resulting MOEs ranged from 178 to over 100, 000, 000 indicating negligibly small potential for harm related to consumer or health-care worker exposure to chloroxylenol in liquid soaps used in dish washing and hand washing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevention of occupational risks in animal experimentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez Palacio, J.

2007-01-01

This work focuses on the main specific risks for those working with laboratory animals in a Research Center such as CIEMAT. First we present the general biological risks, their laws and rules. Next, we development the specific risks associated with the laboratory animals, zoonotic diseases and allergies. then we deal with the risks that can be consequence of working with laboratory animals, ionizing radiations, chemical products, genetically modified organisms, liquid nitrogen management, bio containment and human samples management. As they are subjects of interest, we also include the workers health assesment for those exposed to biological agents, including recommendations about hygiene and disinfections. (Author)

Credit Risk Transfer and Crunches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wigan, Duncan

2010-01-01

Rather than in terms of the inevitable demise of a destabilising process of speculation, this article explores the ‘credit crunch’ as a window on the fabrication, and measure of the proportions of a political shift driven by market actors and financial innovation. The Basel process reconceptualised...... banks as risk navigators and generated a competitive hierarchy within the global banking industry determined on a gauge of this capacity. This private regulatory regime promoted market inflation and rendered institutional liquidity and risk transfer definitive of market power. In turn, a ballooning...... credit derivatives market broke the limits of financial production and defined state actions in the face of crisis. A shift from a central concern with solvency to that of liquidity thinly masks a profound redistribution of power from the public to the private. By swapping private assets of uncertain...

Funding Liquidity Risk and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

OpenAIRE

Cho-Hoi Hui; Hans Genberg; Tsz-Kin Chung

2009-01-01

Significant deviations from covered interest parity were observed during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This paper finds that before the failure of Lehman Brothers the market-wide funding liquidity risk was the main determinant of these deviations in terms of the premiums on swap-implied US dollar interest rates for the euro, British pound, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar and Swiss Franc. This suggests that the deviations can be explained by the existence and nature of li...

Liquidity Runs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Matta, R.; Perotti, E.

2016-01-01

Can the risk of losses upon premature liquidation produce bank runs? We show how a unique run equilibrium driven by asset liquidity risk arises even under minimal fundamental risk. To study the role of illiquidity we introduce realistic norms on bank default, such that mandatory stay is triggered

Strategies for risk management using the paper markets [to minimize oil price risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annesley, M.

1993-01-01

The severe price movement experienced within energy markets during the last few years have awakened significant interest in hedging, and other uses of the futures, options, forward and derivative markets, to minimise price risk. There are two basic strands of structure of the markets now available for risk mangement. The first of these is the Exchange markets (IPE, NYMEX, and SIMEX) providing various futures and options alternatives; the second is the forward cargo contracts. The liquidity in these forward cargo markets, is variable but the contracts do provide some hedging and price risk management opportunities, which supplement and complement the Exchange markets, particularly for the professional risk managers and market makers. A range of forward markets is potentially available serving all regions. The more recent development of widely used derivative contracts, notably the swaps and price triggering in physical sale contracts, gives further alternatives from which interested companies may choose. The derivative market, although by definition off-exchange' may use either the Exchanges, forward markets or various oil publications for establishing their prices. Therefore, Exchange futures and options, forward markets and either standard or individually tailored derivatives all provide possible solutions to the risk management needs of coping with today's volatile prices. (author)

Risk Reporting: An Analysis of the German Banking Industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. van Oorschot (Laura)

2010-01-01

textabstractExecutive summary The recent financial crisis resulted in an increased attention on the risks of banks and their financial instruments. This article discusses the outcomes of a study on the quantity and quality of market, credit, and liquidity risk disclosures and the relationship 1)

Insider trading: regulation, risk reallocation, and welfare

OpenAIRE

Estrada, Javier

1995-01-01

I argue in this paper that the imposition of insider trading regulations on a securities market generates not on1y a reallocation of wealth from insiders to liquidity traders, but also a reallocation of risk from the former to the latter. I further argue that, although the wealth reallocation has no impact on social welfare, under plausible assumptions, the risk reallocation imposes a cost on society.

The adoption of switchgrass and miscanthus by farmers: Impact of liquidity constraints and risk preferences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bocqueho, G.; Jacquet, F.

2010-01-01

Lignocellulosic biomass is expected to become a key feedstock for renewable energy production. However, the potential supply strongly depends on farmers' willingness to grow the new perennial energy crops. Many economic assessments have been led at the farm level, all based on the standard net present value approach. This paper looks into the effect of farmers' liquidity constraints and risk preferences on switchgrass and miscanthus adoption by farmers. We study the problem of the land allocation between a traditional cropping system and an innovative one in a static framework, using four intertemporal choice models. We find that, in central France agronomic and economic conditions, switchgrass and miscanthus result to be less profitable in terms of annualised net margin than the usual rape/wheat/barley rotation. Nevertheless, they can be highly competitive as diversification crops when appropriate contracts are offered to farmers, despite the additional liquidity they require.

Fundamental determinants of credit default risk for European and American banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify the fundamental variables driving banks’ credit default swaps. Quarterly data from 2004 to 2015 for European and American banks have been used. The analysis has been prepared through static panel data models. The following hypothesis has been put forward: the earnings potential, and economic uncertainty significantly influence credit risk. The independent variables used are CAMELS factors – Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. The CDS spreads are most sensitive to the market risk factors whereas capital adequacy, earnings and liquidity indicators have weaker impact.

Use of liquid nitrogen during storage in a cell and tissue bank: contamination risk and effect on the detectability of potential viral contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirabet, Vicente; Alvarez, Manuel; Solves, Pilar; Ocete, Dolores; Gimeno, Concepción

2012-04-01

Cryopreservation is widely used for banking cells and tissues intended for transplantation. Liquid nitrogen provides a very stable ultra-low temperature environment. Thus, it is used for longterm storage. Unlike the exhaustive microbiological monitoring of the environmental conditions during tissue processing, storage is not usually considered as a critical point of potential contamination risk in professional standards for cell and tissue banking. We have analysed the presence of microbial agents inside our nitrogen tanks. We have mainly detected environmental and water-borne bacteria and fungi. In addition, we have studied the effect of liquid nitrogen exposure on virus detectability. Only differences for hepatitis C virus RNA were observed. Measures for contamination risk reduction during storage must be mandatory in cell and tissue banking. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-04-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

2017-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Liquidity coinsurance and bank capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castiglionesi, F.; Feriozzi, F.; Lóránth, G.; Pelizzon, L.

Banks can deal with their liquidity risk by holding liquid assets (self-insurance), by participating in interbank markets (coinsurance), or by using flexible financing instruments, such as bank capital (risk sharing). We use a simple model to show that undiversifiable liquidity risk, that is, the

Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

Investment with incomplete markets for risk: The need for long-term contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maere d’Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Ehrenmann, Andreas; Smeers, Yves

2017-01-01

Barring subsidies, investment in the power generation sector has come to an almost complete halt in the restructured European power sector. Market and regulatory failures such as the well known missing money (see )) but also normal market features such as risk, possibly also affected by market failures like market incompleteness are mentioned as common causes for the situation. This paper discusses incomplete risk trading and its impact on investment. The analysis applies computable stochastic equilibrium models on a simple market model of the Energy Only type. The paper first compares the cases of complete and fully incomplete markets (full risk trading and no risk trading). It continues by testing the impact of different risk trading contracts on both welfare and investment. We successively consider Contracts for Difference, Reliability Options with and without physical back up that we add to our Energy Only market model. We test the impact of market liquidity on the results. Finally, we compare these methods to a Forward Capacity Market that we also add to the energy only model. We complete the paper by interpretation of these results in terms of hurdle rate implied by these risk-trading situations. - Highlights: • Electricity market designs are discussed based on simulations reflecting risk aversion. • If financial markets are liquid then forward contracts can improve welfare substantially. • If markets cannot provide liquidity, then the welfare improvement is strongly diminished. • Capacity markets can serve as an alternative to contracts.

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Risk and risk acceptance by society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Statt, C.

1977-01-01

Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

Polish and Silesian Non-Profit Organizations Liquidity Strategies

OpenAIRE

Michalski, Grzegorz; Mercik, Aleksander

2013-01-01

The kind of realized mission inflows the sensitivity to risk. Among other factors, the risk results from decision about liquid assets investment level and liquid assets financing. The higher the risk exposure, the higher the level of liquid assets. If the specific risk exposure is smaller, the more aggressive could be the net liquid assets strategy. The organization choosing between various solutions in liquid assets needs to decide what level of risk is acceptable for her owners (or donors) ...

Countering the biggest risk of all.

Science.gov (United States)

Slywotzky, Adrian J; Drzik, John

2005-04-01

Corporate treasurers and chief financial officers have become adept at quantifying and managing a wide variety of risks: financial (for example, currency fluctuations), hazard (chemical spills), and operational (computer system failures). To defend themselves, they use tried-and-true tools such as hedging, insurance, and backup systems. Some companies have even adopted the concept of enterprise risk management, integrating available risk management techniques in a comprehensive, organization-wide approach. But most managers have not addressed in a systematic way the greatest threat of all--strategic risks, the array of external events and trends that can devastate a company's growth trajectory and shareholder value. Strategic risks go beyond such familiar challenges as the possible failure of an acquisition or a product launch. A new technology may overtake your product. Gradual shifts in the market may slowly erode one of your brands beyond the point of viability. Or rapidly shifting customer priorities may suddenly change your industry. The key to surviving these strategic risks, the authors say, is knowing how to assess and respond to them. In this article, they lay out a method for identifying and responding to strategic threats. They categorize the risks into seven major classes (industry, technology, brand, competitor, customer, project, and stagnation) and describe a particularly dangerous example within each category. The authors also offer countermeasures to take against these risks and describe how individual companies (American Express, Coach, and Air Liquide, among them) have deployed them to neutralize a threat and, in many cases, capitalize on it. Besides limiting the downside of risk, strategic-risk management forces executives to think more systematically about the future, thus helping them identify opportunities for growth.

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

2015-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

Risk evaluation of embedded, single-walled liquid low-level waste piping at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ESD Publication 4315

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-10-01

Four categories of liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) systems are defined in the Federal Facility Agreement (FFA) for the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Categories A and B are new and fully compliant existing systems, respectively: Category C is singly contained and must be removed from service, and Category D is inactive. The FFA requires that secondary containment and leak detection be provided for all Category A and B piping in the LLLW System at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); however, as noted in the D2 revision of the secondary containment design demonstration report (DOE 1994), some sections of single-walled embedded piping in Category B underground vaults at three ORNL facilities do not meet this requirement. A risk evaluation was performed in order compare the potential radiation dose to a member of the public that could result from a postulated leak in the single-walled pipes with projected radiation exposure to the workers who would modify the piping to meet FFA requirements. The risk to human health from replacing segments of embedded, single-walled piping in the LLW system is higher than the risk of leaving the piping as it is

Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

Informed Traders as Liquidity Providers: Anonymity, Liquidity and Price Formation

OpenAIRE

Barbara Rindi

2008-01-01

The tendency to introduce anonymity into financial markets apparently runs counter to the theory supporting transparency. This paper studies the impact of pre-trade transparency on liquidity in a market where risk-averse traders accommodate the liquidity demand of noise traders. When some risk-averse investors become informed, an adverse selection problem ensues for the others, making them reluctant to supply liquidity. Hence the disclosure of traders' identities improves liquidity by mitigat...

Empirical Evidence of Risk and Performance: Top Glove Corporation Berhad

OpenAIRE

lim, yu zhi

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is desired to examine the profitability performance of Top Glove Corporation Berhad with some risk factors (liquidity risk, operating risk) and macroeconomic factors. This study was according to the annual report data of Top Glove from year 2011 to year 2015. It shows that there are negative relationship between the company’s profitability and the operating ratio. By using the IBM SPSS Statistics software and add some measurement such as GDP, inflation rate, asset si...

Risk Pricing in Construction Tenders - How, Who, What

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Tower

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Construction projects are most commonlyprocured in Australia by means of a traditionaldesign–tender–build model, whereby design islargely completed then contractors submittenders in a competitive environment.Construction contractors must consider riskswithin their tenders. This paper reports theresearch findings into pricing for risk incompetitive tenders by constructioncontractors. The research is based onstructured interviews with 10 contractingpersonnel; supplemented by 23 responses ofconstruction personnel from an online survey.Two common methods to price for risk are atrade-by-trade basis or an overall percentageor lump sum addition to the base estimate.Experience and intuition plays a significant rolein pricing for risk in tenders and the numberand type of people involved varies with projectsize, with greater involvement as project sizeincreases. The most significant risks priced intenders were: availability of resources; designor documentation errors; incomplete design;buildability issues; and inclement weather. Themost significant project factors considered bycontractors when pricing for risk in tenders are:value of liquidated damages; type ofcontract/procurement; completeness ofdocumentation; project complexity; and currentworkload. These risks and project factors areprimarily those over which the contractor haslimited or no control.

ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinisa Bogdan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

Screening mammography. A risk versus risk decision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritenour, E.R.; Hendee, W.R.

1989-01-01

The potential risk of a radiologic procedure often is compared with the potential benefit of the procedure. While risk vs. benefit analysis has been useful as a step toward increased communication and understanding among radiologists, referring physicians, and the general public, it has the disadvantage that risk and benefit are fundamentally different quantities. Hence, their juxtaposition for purposes of comparison presents contextual difficulties. In this article, the concept is presented of comparing the risk of doing a procedure with the risk of choosing not to do the procedure. An example of risk vs. risk analysis of screening mammography for women over the age of 50 is given, with the conclusion that the risk of having yearly mammograms is less than 1/10 the risk of early death caused by failure to diagnose breast cancer by x-ray mammography. This approach to risk analysis would yield interesting data for examinations that are part of more complicated diagnostic pathways.19 references

Consumption of added sugars from liquid but not solid sources predicts impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance among youth at risk of obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jiawei; Light, Kelly; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Paradis, Gilles; Gray-Donald, Katherine

2014-01-01

Little is known about longitudinal associations between added sugar consumption (solid and liquid sources) and glucose-insulin homeostasis among youth. Caucasian children (8-10 y) with at least one obese biological parent were recruited in the QUébec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort (n = 630) and followed-up 2 y later (n = 564). Added sugars were assessed by 3 24-h dietary recalls at baseline. Two-year changes were examined in multivariate linear regression models, adjusting for baseline level, age, sex, Tanner stage, energy intake, fat mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and physical activity (7 d accelerometer). Added sugar intake in either liquid or solid sources was not related to changes in adiposity measures (fat mass, body mass index, or waist circumference). However, a higher consumption (10 g/d) of added sugars from liquid sources was associated with 0.04 mmol/L higher fasting glucose, 2.3 pmol/L higher fasting insulin, 0.1 unit higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and 0.4 unit lower Matsuda-insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda-ISI) in all participants (P added sugars from solid sources. Overweight/obese children at baseline had greater increases in adiposity indicators, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR and decreases in Matsuda-ISI during those 2 y than normal-weight children. Consumption of added sugars from liquid or solid sources was not associated with changes in adiposity, but liquid added sugars were a risk factor for the development of impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance over 2 y among youth at risk of obesity.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Risk control and the minimum significant risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1996-01-01

Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Polish and Silesian Non-Profit Organizations Liquidity Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz Michalski

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The kind of realized mission inflows the sensitivity to risk. Among other factors, the risk results from decision about liquid assets investment level and liquid assets financing. The higher the risk exposure, the higher the level of liquid assets. If the specific risk exposure is smaller, the more aggressive could be the net liquid assets strategy. The organization choosing between various solutions in liquid assets needs to decide what level of risk is acceptable for her owners (or donors and / or capital suppliers. The paper shows how, in authors opinion, decisions, about liquid assets management strategy inflow the risk of the organizations and its economicalresults during realization of main mission. Comparison of theoretical model with empirical data for over 450 Silesian nonprofit organization results suggests that nonprofit organization managing teams choose more risky aggressive liquid assets solutions than for-profit firms.

The risk evaluation of a model of a high-level waste solidification plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruecher, H.

1977-02-01

In this report the risk associated with the operation of a plant for vitrification of high-level liquid waste is evaluated. Considerung risk assessment it turns out that the important accidents occur during off-gas cleaning. On the other hand effects of explosions in the process equipment don't contribute very much to the overall risk. These data are compared with the risk resulting from routine discharge of the plant. It is of the same magnitude as or greater than the most important accident risks. (orig.) [de

Risk management

OpenAIRE

Mcmanus, John

2009-01-01

Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

Risk and risk aversion in our society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

1985-01-01

The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

Risk and risk aversion in our society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.L.

1985-01-01

The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking

OpenAIRE

Douglas W. Diamond; Raghuram G. Rajan

2001-01-01

Both investors and borrowers are concerned about liquidity. Investors desire liquidity because they are uncertain about when they will want to eliminate their holding of a financial asset. Borrowers are concerned about liquidity because they are uncertain about their ability to continue to attract or retain funding. Because borrowers typically cannot repay investors on demand, investors will require a premium or significant control rights when they lend to borrowers directly, as compensation ...

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petts, J.

1994-01-01

This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

The Role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1999-01-01

The list of individual and social factors that shape risk perception demonstrates that the intuitive understanding of risk is a multidimensional concept and cannot be reduced to the product of probabilities and consequences. Although risk perceptions differ considerably among social and cultural groups, the multi-dimensionality of risk and the integration of beliefs related to risk, the cause of risk, and its circumstances into a consistent belief system appear to be common characteristics of public risk perception in almost all countries in which such studies have been performed. Furthermore, the experience of risk is not limited to the threat of facing harm in the future. It includes subjective predictions of possible outcomes, the social and cultural context in which the risk is experienced, the mental images the risk situation evokes, the perception of the players who are involved in the risk situation and the judgments about fairness and equity related to the distribution of potential hazardous events. In this sense, risk is a social construct rather than a physical entity. Risk communication and conflict resolution is therefore a crucial element of any risk management strategy. The goal of risk communication and conflict resolution should not be to persuade people to accept whatever the communicator thinks is best for them. The ideal communication program envisions a receiver who processes all the available information to form a well-balanced judgement in accordance with the factual evidence, the arguments of all sides, and his/her own interests and preferences. The ultimate goal of risk communication is to reconcile expertise, interests, and public preferences. (EHS)

Radiological risk curves for the liquid radioactive waste transfer from Angra 1 to Angra 2 nuclear power plants by a container tank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alves, A.S.M.; Passos, E.M. dos; Duarte, J.P.

2013-01-01

Eletrobras Termonuclear has a radiowaste management program focused on reducing the produced volumes, for which it has considered to transfer Angra 1 liquid radioactive waste by a container tank to be processed and packed in Angra 2. This paper presents a radiological risk study for providing the necessary technical foundations to obtain the license from the regulatory agency for implementing this transfer operation. Out of the 92 accident scenarios identified with the help of a preliminary hazard analysis, the greatest risk of fatal cancer for members of the public was equal to 6.9 x 10 -13 fatalities/yr, which refers to the accident scenario involving intrinsic failures of valves, hoses, flanges, seals, gaskets and instrumentation lines, while filling the container tank at Angra 1 filling station. This risk figure is about ten million times less than the one adopted by Eletronuclear for such a waste transfer. The highest frequency was also associated with this type of scenario, and its value was equal to 1.4 x 10 -6 yr -1 . This paper also presents and discusses the radiological risk curves for the three possible in-plant transfer routes, the Angra 1 filling station and Angra 2 discharging station and the overall risk curve in order to allow for a broader perspective of the results obtained. These risk curves display the accident scenarios frequencies against radiation doses by considering relevant in-plant and surroundings release paths. In these curves, the extreme scenarios mentioned earlier can be clearly identified in terms of occurrence frequencies and radiation doses. (author)

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Risk of hydrocyanic acid release in the electroplating industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Piccinini, N; Ruggiero, G N; Baldi, G; Robotto, A

2000-01-07

This paper suggests assessing the consequences of hydrocyanic acid (HCN) release into the air by aqueous cyanide solutions in abnormal situations such as the accidental introduction of an acid, or the insertion of a cyanide in a pickling bath. It provides a well-defined source model and its resolution by methods peculiar to mass transport phenomena. The procedure consists of four stages: calculation of the liquid phase concentration, estimate of the HCN liquid-vapour equilibrium, determination of the mass transfer coefficient at the liquid-vapour interface, evaluation of the air concentration of HCN and of the damage distances. The results show that small baths operating at high temperatures are the major sources of risk. The building up of lethal air concentrations, on the other hand, is governed by the values of the mass transfer coefficient, which is itself determined by the flow dynamics and bath geometry. Concerning the magnitude of the risk, the fallout for external emergency planning is slight in all the cases investigated.

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Colloquium on the risks of different energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

Four subjects, each taking up one session, were dealt with in this Colloquium. The first is the definition of the health risk concept which is only obvious on the surface. It was shown how within the medical world itself, apparently the most competent to discover and evaluate these risks, this definition is still approximate both in theory and in practice. The second theme dealt with concerns the way in which risks are viewed by the general public. By a psychological and sociological approach it is possible to form an idea of how differently opinion reacts to risks of similar gravity and probability. The apprehension of risks and the opposition to nuclear energy were analysed in detail in this session. The third subject, more analytical and probably one of the most topical is concerned with the inventory of risks due to each industrial energy sector. This session was in two parts, the first devoted to problems specific to each source of energy including nuclear, the second to common problems (pollution of air, fresh water and sea water, and long-term effects (nuclear wastes for example). The fourth and last session dealt with a fundamental problem, methods of studying these risks. The conclusions of different enquiries are always very similar: the energy source hierarchy, in order of diminishing risks, is as follows: coal, liquid hydrocarbons, nuclear and gaseous hydrocarbons [fr

Risk, Risk Perception, Risk Management – a Review of the Literature

OpenAIRE

Tamás Vasvári

2015-01-01

Risks have become an integral part of our society. In this context, the aim of this paper is to provide a summary of the findings of risk research conducted in different fields of study and to trace the effect of these findings on risk management practices. The basic approaches to risk presented in this paper show that the notions of probability employed in studying processes in any area of life belong in the province of epistemology rather than ontology. Therefore, subjectivity cannot be com...

Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oien, K.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitsui, Seiichiro

2003-06-01

In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubeddu, Francesca

2015-01-01

A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

OpenAIRE

Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

2008-01-01

A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

2003-07-01

Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

RISK MANAGEMENT WITH FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIAN NON-FINANCIAL FIRMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sorin Gabriel Anton

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Financial risk management has rapidly evolved over the past two decades and has become an indispensable function in many institutions from different area of activities. In the last two decades, as the financial markets have become more and more mature, an increasing number of firms from emerging economies have chosen to use derivatives to hedge financial risks. As a result, risk management with financial derivatives has attracted much attention recently, becoming an important topic in the financial literature. However, we know little about the use of financial derivatives by firms from emerging economies and about the effect of these instruments on firms’ risk and value. The aim of the paper is to provide new insights into the use of financial derivatives for hedging purpose by non-financial firms from emerging markets. We analyzed risk management practices on a sample of 68 non-financial firms listed at Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE over a long time frame (2001 to 2011. We found that Romanian non-financial firms from our sample are exposed mainly to commodity price risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. More than half of the firms in our sample (55.88% publish in their annual reports the goal of risk management process. Our results show that 10.29% of non-financial firms in our sample use financial derivatives to hedge their currency, interest rate or commodity price risks. We also found that the volatility caused by the global financial crisis determined many firms to use financial derivatives over the period 2007-2011. Nevertheless, the use of financial derivatives by Romanian non-financial firms is low relative to values registered for other emerging economies. The most important factors that hindered the use of financial derivatives have been the low liquidity of exchange derivatives markets, high hedging costs, and the lack of risk management expertise. The traditional approach of managing risks individually is

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market

OpenAIRE

Alizadeh, Amir H.; Kappou, K; Tsouknidis, Dimitris; Visvikis, Ilias

2015-01-01

The study examines the impact of liquidity risk on freight derivatives returns. The Amihud liquidity ratio and bid–ask spreads are utilized to assess the existence of liquidity risk in the freight derivatives market. Other macroeconomic variables are used to control for market risk. Results indicate that liquidity risk is priced and both liquidity measures have a significant role in determining freight derivatives returns. Consistent with expectations, both liquidity measures are found to hav...

Internal risks of factoring business: identification, cause-effect relationships, accounting and management aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I.M. Vygivska

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article identifies the risks of the economic activity of a factoring company. The identified risks are divided into internal (fraud risk, credit risk, liquidity, nonpayment, staff, supplier's failure to meet the terms of the supply / factoring contract and external (legal, inflation, currency, interest, industry risks, country risk. The cause-effect relationships of the identified risks have been established. The content of information requests of the leading part of the factoring company, as well as the management subsystems (accounting, economic analysis, control and planning, and the direction of information flows between them (to manage the company's internal risks is determined. These proposals contribute to the improvement of accounting and analytical support for risk management of the factoring business, the choice of alternative risk management methods, the impact on their possible consequences, minimizing the negative impact of risks on the financial condition of the company, and establishing the effectiveness of factoring operations under risk.

RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia MILEA

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Starting from the definition according to which monetary stability requires an appropriate level of liquidity in an economy with dynamic objectives, of growth and job creation, non-inflationary in terms of price stability, based on the analysis of the effects of some relevant economic phenomena and on the economic literature, in this article, the author has highlighted some of the risks to monetary stability. One of the major risks is represented by the loss of its instruments, i.e. the instruments for liquidity management, through monetary and exchange rate policies. Another important risk is represented by the capital fluctuation due to various shocks: exchange rate, political, financial and capital account liberalization. Also, as a result of the analysis of relevant studies and of the effects of the European integration in terms of monetary stability, the author has shown the elements on which depends monetary stability. Among these, there are: the existence of an institutional framework with a clear goal and a proper degree of responsibility, strong operational independence of monetary policy, monetary policy implementation with a view to ensuring an appropriate balance between discipline and discretion, the level of the interest rate of monetary policy, the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the existence of a viable and stable financial system, the existence of enough instruments at hand for the central bank, the structure and soundness of the financial and banking system. The paper is a capitalization of the research project “Global Risks for the Financial and Monetary Stability. Implications for Romania and European Union” elaborated in 2013, at “Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research.

Analyzing Systemic Risk in CEE Markets in 2007–2008 Financial Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Karkowska

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to attempt to answer the question ofhow the crisis affected the banking systems of cee countries, withspecial emphasis on liquidity risk. It seems that this problem hasparticularly affected emerging economies. First, the liquidity riskbegan to exert considerable influence on the functioning bankingsystem and, indirectly, the whole economy. In this paper authorwanted to answer the following questions: What are the channelsof transmission systemic risk on cee markets? What is the role ofbig world banking groups in these financial systems? This conceptis applied to ten Central Eastern European countries, whichexperienced a financial crisis. In the research author hypothesizedabout interconnectedness of liquidity in financial systemsand solvency problems of big banking groups operating in CEE.

CONSIDERATIONS IN RISK COMMUNICATION: A DIGEST OF RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

Science.gov (United States)

Risk communication is the process of informing people about hazards. Like all communication, communicating risk is a two-way exchange in which you inform the target community about possible hazards, but also gather information about those affected by the risk. The purpose of risk...

Liquid pathways generic studies; results, interpretation, and design implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, D.H.; Nutant, J.A.

1980-01-01

Offshore Power Systems and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have evaluated dose consequences resulting from a release of radioactivity to liquid pathways following a postulated core-melt accident. The objective of these studies was to compare the risks from postulated core-melt accidents for the Floating Nuclear Plant with those for a typical land-based nuclear plant. Offshore Power Systems concluded that the differences in liquid pathway risks between plant types are not significant when compared with the air pathways risks. Air pathways risk is similar to or significantly larger than liquid pathways risk depending on the accident scenario. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission judged the liquid pathways risks from the Floating Nuclear Plant to be significantly greater than the liquid pathway risks for the typical land-based plant. Although OPS disagrees with the NRC judgment, design changes dictated by the NRC are being implemented by OPS

In pursuit of zero risk for LMR [liquid metal reactor] accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waltar, A.E.; Armstrong, G.R.; Martin, F.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.

1986-01-01

LMR programs are moving towards facility designs that are inherently safe. This movement is resulting in extremely low probabilities for entering the regime of severe accidents. When these probabilities are added to the respective consequences, the resulting risk is also seen to be moving toward lower and lower values. The preliminary risk estimates being achieved by the US LMR Advanced Concepts Programs are well within US NRC guidelines and to some may be seen as approaching zero. This paper presents some aspects and results of the work being performed that supports this trend

Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

1995-11-05

It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

1987-01-01

The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-10-07

Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (Uses) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Program, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus I that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less

Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (USTs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Pregrain, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus 1 that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Il sistema monetario internazionale negli anni settanta: regime dei tassi di cambio e creazione di liquidità. (Liquidity creation and risk in the international monetary system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. DINI

2013-12-01

Full Text Available L' articolo esamina il funzionamento del sistema finanziario attuale, segnalando la sua funzione più importante , vale a dire l'offerta di liquidità e il suo impatto sulla vasta gamma di variabili finanziarie internazionali. Liquidità e rischio sono concetti strettamente correlati. Come Keynes e Hicks hanno insegnato , una definizione significativa di liquidità non può essere data senza fare riferimento al rischio. L'autore fornisce alcune considerazioni per aiutare a far luce sulle azioni politiche che potrebbero essere necessarie per mitigare i problemi e le difficoltà connesse con l'attuale impostazione monetaria internazionale .The article looks at how the present financial system works, signalling out its most crucial function, namely the provision of liquidity and its impact on the broad spectrum of international financial variables. Liquidity and risk are closely interrelated concepts. As Keynes and Hicks taught, a meaningful definition of liquidity cannot be given without reference to risk itself. The author provides some considerations to help shed light on the policy actions that may be required to mitigate the problems and difficulties associated with the current international monetary setting. JEL: G15, F30, E42

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Martin Møller; Christensen, Jens H.E.; Simon Riddell, Simon

We introduce an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity risk in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The novel feature of our model is to identify liquidity risk from individual TIPS prices by accounting for the tendency that TIPS, lik...

Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

2015-05-25

As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

Ownership concentration and bank risk (A study on banking sectors in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Etikah Karyani

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to test empirically the relationship between ownership concentration and risk taking by banks which are proxied by the CAR and LDR (li-quidity ratio. The study was motivated by the limited previous studies that analyze the structure of ownership in financial institutions and the weaknesses in sampling. Our analysis focused on Indonesia because this country has implemented the Basel Accord II standards successfully. This regulatory compliance is expected can control banking risk. Using data from 2009 until 2013 and panel data. We found that the ownership concentration become important determinants of bank liquidity. These findings are expected to provide policy guidance for regulators, especially relating to the ownership structure of the bank. However, the ownership concentration proved to be involved in the management decision to risk taking in banks.

A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

The risks of measuring risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, G.G.

1982-01-01

The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

Migration, Risk and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador

OpenAIRE

Timothy Halliday

2005-01-01

This article utilizes panel data from El Salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy. I show that adverse agricultural conditions in El Salvador increase both migration to the United States and remittances sent back to El Salvador. I show that, in the absence of any agricultural shocks, the probability that a household sent members to the United States would have decreased on average by 24.26%. I also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced...

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... recover loss. 370.8 Section 370.8 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION REGULATIONS AND STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special... temporary liquidity guarantee program, the Corporation shall impose an emergency special assessment on...

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Risk-based prioritization for the interim remediation of inactive low-level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

1992-09-01

The paper presents a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low-level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs), for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were pumped out when the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include the radionuclides 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 233 U and the chemicals carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethane, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead, and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank, (2) location of the tanks, and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents. Leaking characteristics of LLLW USTs will aid in establishing the potential for the release of contaminants to environmental media. In this study, only the liquid phase was assumed to be released to the environment. Scoring criteria for release potential of LLLW USTs was determined after consideration of the magnitude of any known leaks and the tank type for those that are not known to leak

The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehri Akhavi Babi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Egalitarian Risk Sharing under Liquidity Constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koster, M.; Boonen, T.

2014-01-01

Undertaking joint projects in practice involves a lot of uncertainty, especially when it comes to the final costs. This paper addresses the problem of sharing realized costs by the participants, subject to their indvidual liquidity constraints. If all cost levels can be accounted for, and it the

The price of correlation risk:evidence from Chinese stock market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yiwen Deng; Chen Liu; Zhenlong Zheng

2014-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to study how the market correlation changes in Chinese stock market and how the market correlation affects stock returns.Design/methodology/approach-The authors first examine the relationship between the market correlation and the market return.Then,the authors run formal multiple regressions to see whether correlation risk is priced in security returns.Findings-The authors find that market correlation increases when the market index falls down.Though market correlation risk is partly influenced by macroeconomic shocks,volatility risk,liquidity risk and higher moment risk,market correlation contains unique information that measures the benefit investors gain from diversification strategies.The market correlation risk is negatively priced.This conclusion remains valid even if the authors have considered the influence of other risk factors and the impact of conditional information.Research limitations/implications-Subjected to the limited history of the Chinese stock market,the authors cannot use more accurate and specific empirical methodology to fulfill the empirical research.And this renders further study.Originality/value-This research provides empirical evidence in a new data sample and it sheds lights on correlation strategies for institutional investors in China.

Impact of actinide recycle on nuclear fuel cycle health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaels, G.E.

1992-06-01

The purpose of this background paper is to summarize what is presently known about potential impacts on the impacts on the health risk of the nuclear fuel cycle form deployment of the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) 1 and Integral Fast Reactor (IF) 2 technology as an actinide burning system. In a companion paper the impact on waste repository risk is addressed in some detail. Therefore, this paper focuses on the remainder of the fuel cycle

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

The risks of risk aversion in drug regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Brasseur, Daniel; Breckenridge, Alasdair; Leufkens, Hubert; Raine, June; Salmonson, Tomas; Schneider, Christian K; Rasi, Guido

2013-12-01

Drugs are approved by regulatory agencies on the basis of their assessment of whether the available evidence indicates that the benefits of the drug outweigh its risks. In recent years, regulatory agencies have been criticized both for being overly tolerant of risks or being excessively risk-averse, which reflects the challenge in determining an appropriate balance between benefit and risk with the limited data that is typically available before drug approval. The negative consequences of regulatory tolerance in allowing drugs onto the market that turn out to be unsafe are obvious, but the potential for adverse effects on public health owing to the absence of new drugs because of regulatory risk-aversion is less apparent. Here, we discuss the consequences of regulatory risk-aversion for public health and suggest what might be done to best align acceptance of risk and uncertainty by regulators with the interests of public health.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Emerging Technological Risk Underpinning the Risk of Technology Innovation

CERN Document Server

Anderson, Stuart

2012-01-01

Classes of socio-technical hazards allow a characterization of the risk in technology innovation and clarify the mechanisms underpinning emergent technological risk. Emerging Technological Risk provides an interdisciplinary account of risk in socio-technical systems including hazards which highlight: ·         How technological risk crosses organizational boundaries, ·         How technological trajectories and evolution develop from resolving tensions emerging between social aspects of organisations and technologies and ·         How social behaviour shapes, and is shaped by, technology. Addressing an audience from a range of academic and professional backgrounds, Emerging Technological Risk is a key source for those who wish to benefit from a detail and methodical exposure to multiple perspectives on technological risk. By providing a synthesis of recent work on risk that captures the complex mechanisms that characterize the emergence of risk in technology innovation, Emerging Tec...

Essays on Arbitrage and Market Liquidity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tomio, Davide

The first essay investigates how credit risk, the risk that a bond issuer will default, affects bond market liquidity. Specifically, we depart from the current literature in that we analyze the direct and indirect channels through which credit risk affects market liquidity, rather than determining...... whether both are priced in the bond. We focus on the Italian sovereign bond market, which allows us to determine how central bank interventions affect the sensitivity of the liquidity provision by market makers to default risk. We motivate our empirical analysis with a simple model of a risk averse market...... maker, holding an inventory of a risky asset and setting her optimal marginal quotes (and, therefore, the optimal bid-ask spread), in the presence of margin constraints and borrowing costs. The margins, set by a clearing house, depend on the risk of the asset, as measured by the CDS spread...

Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2006-01-01

Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

A systematic review and meta-analysis of pneumonia associated with thin liquid vs. thickened liquid intake in patients who aspirate.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneoka, Asako; Pisegna, Jessica M; Saito, Hiroki; Lo, Melody; Felling, Katey; Haga, Nobuhiko; LaValley, Michael P; Langmore, Susan E

2017-08-01

To investigate whether drinking thin liquids with safety strategies increases the risk for pneumonia as compared with thickened liquids in patients who have demonstrated aspiration of thin liquids. Seven electronic databases, one clinical register, and three conference archives were searched. No language or publication date restrictions were imposed. Reference lists were scanned and authors and experts in the field were contacted. A blind review was performed by two reviewers for published or unpublished randomized controlled trials and prospective non-randomized trials comparing the incidence of pneumonia with intake of thin liquids plus safety strategies vs. thickened liquids in adult patients who aspirated on thin liquids. The data were extracted from included studies. Odds ratios (OR) for pneumonia were calculated from the extracted data. Risk of bias was also assessed with the included published trials. Seven studies out of 2465 studies including 650 patients met the inclusion criteria. All of the seven studies excluded patients with more than one known risk factor for pneumonia. Six studies compared thin water protocols to thickened liquids for pneumonia prevention. A meta-analysis was done on the six studies, showing no significant difference for pneumonia risk (OR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.05-13.42; p = 0.89). There was no significant difference in the risk of pneumonia in aspirating patients who took thin liquids with safety strategies compared with those who took thickened liquids only. This result, however, is generalizable only for patients with low risk of pneumonia.

Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

1992-01-01

The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowe, M.D.

1992-09-18

Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Refined avian risk assessment for chlorpyrifos in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Dwayne R J; Teed, R Scott; Greer, Colleen D; Solomon, Keith R; Giesy, John P

2014-01-01

Refined risk assessments for birds exposed to flowable and granular formulations ofCPY were conducted for a range of current use patterns in the United States. Overall,the collective evidence from the modeling and field study lines of evidence indicate that flowable and granular CPY do not pose significant risks to the bird communities foraging in agro-ecosystems in the United States. The available information indicates that avian incidents resulting from the legal, registered uses of CPY have been very infrequent since 2002 (see SI Appendix 3). The small number of recent incidents suggests that the current labels for CPY are generally protective of birds.However, incident data are uncertain because of the difficulties associated with finding dead birds in the field and linking any mortality observed to CPY.Plowable CPY is registered for a variety of crops in the United States including alfalfa, brassica vegetables, citrus, corn, cotton, grape, mint, onion, peanut, pome and stone fruits, soybean, sugar beet, sunflower, sweet potato, tree nuts, and wheat under the trade name Lorsban Advanced. The major routes of exposure for birds to flowable CPY were consumption of treated dietary items and drinking water. The Liquid Pesticide Avian Risk Assessment Model (Liquid PARAM) was used to simulate avian ingestion of CPY by these routes of exposure. For acute exposure,Liquid PARAM estimated the maximum retained dose in each of 20 birds on each of1,000 fields that were treated with CPY over the 60-d period following initial application.The model used a 1-h time step. For species lacking acceptable acute oral toxicity data (all focal species except northern bobwhite (C. virginianus) and redwinged blackbird (A. phoeniceus)), a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach was used to generate hypothetical dose-response curves assuming high, median and low sensitivity to CPY. For acute risk, risk curves were generated for each use pattern and exposure scenario. The risk

Enterprise risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2015-07-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sjoeberg, L

1992-10-01

Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeberg, L.

1992-10-01

Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bishu, Kinfe G.; O'Reilly, Seamus; Lahiff, Edward

2018-01-01

This study analyzes cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use survey data from a sample of 356 farmers based on multistage random sampling. Factor analysis is employed to classify scores of risk and management strategies, and multiple...... utilization were perceived as the most important strategies for managing risks. Livestock disease and labor shortage were perceived as less of a risk by farmers who adopted the practice of zero grazing compared to other farmers, pointing to the potential of this practice for risk reduction. We find strong...... evidence that farmers engage in multiple risk management practices in order to reduce losses from cattle morbidity and mortality. The results suggest that government strategies that aim at reducing farmers’ risk need to be tailored to specific farm and farmer characteristics. Findings from this study have...

78 FR 71817 - Liquidity Coverage Ratio: Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards, and Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-29

... senior representatives of bank supervisory authorities and central banks from Argentina, Australia..., 2012). B. Background The recent financial crisis demonstrated significant weaknesses in the liquidity... conditions and the declining availability of liquidity during the financial crisis illustrated both the speed...

Risk ON/Risk OFF: Risk-Taking Varies with Subjectively Preferred and Disliked Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Halko, Marja-Liisa; Kaustia, Markku

2015-01-01

In this paper we conduct a within-subjects experiment in which teenagers go over 256 gambles with real money gains and losses. For each risky gamble they choose whether to participate in it, or pass. Prior to this main experiment subjects identify specific songs belonging to their favorite musical genre, as well as songs representing a style they dislike. In the main experiment we vary the music playing in the background, so that each subject hears some of their favorite music, and some disliked music, alternating in blocks of 16 gambles. We find that favorite music increases risk-taking ('risk on'), and disliked music suppresses risk-taking ('risk off'), compared to a baseline of no music. Literature in psychology proposes several mechanisms by which mood affects risk-taking, but none of them fully explain the results in our setting. The results are, however, consistent with the economics notion of preference complementarity, extended to the domain of risk preference. The preference structure implied by our results is more complex than previously thought, yet realistic, and consistent with recent theoretical models. More generally, this mechanism offers a potential explanation to why risk-taking is known to change over time and across contexts.

An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

OpenAIRE

Thomas C. Chiang; Yuanqing Zhang

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced int...

The role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1998-01-01

Are risks social constructions of different societal actors that can be checked at best against standards of consistency, cohesion and internal conventions of deduction, but cannot claim any validity outside of the actor's logical framework? Or are technical estimates of risk representations of real hazards that can and will affect people as predicted by the statistical values, regardless of the beliefs or convictions of those who conduct the assessments? Which of the two sides one takes determines the legitimate function of risk perception for management purposes. The paper argues that both extremes, the constructivist and the realist perspective, miss the point, as risks are always mental representations of threats that are capable of claiming real losses. Over the last two decades, risk analysts have dealt with both sides of risk in an additive fashion. In times in which risk management has been under serious pressure to demonstrate effectiveness and cost-efficiency, the parallel approach of pleasing the technical elite and the public alike has lost legitimacy. In order to integrate risk assessment and perception, the paper analyses the strengths and weaknesses of each approach to risk analysis and highlights the potential contributions that the technical sciences and the social sciences can offer to risk management. Technical assessments provide the best estimate for judging the average probability of an adverse effect linked to an object or activity. First, public perception should govern the selection of criteria on which acceptability or tolerability are to be judged. Second, public input is needed to determine the trade-offs between criteria. Third, public preferences are needed to design resilient strategies for coping with remaining uncertainties. A public participation model is introduced that promises an integration of analytic knowledge and deliberative process involving those who will be affected by the respective risk

Tritium and radon risks for humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauna, Traian; Mauna, Andriesica

2008-01-01

Full text: The gaseous and liquid releases into environment from the two CANDU type units of Cernavoda NPP now in operation has more tritium contents than other kind of western power reactors. CANDU type reactor uses heavy water as moderator and primary circuit heat transfer agent. In normal operation deuterium go to tritium by neutron capture, the molecule of tritiated heavy water can escape from nuclear systems in very small amounts and so it is released into environment. After release the tritium follows the way of water into environment. One year ago the antinuclear NGO led a hard attack against Units 3 and 4 during the procedure of public acceptance request. This attack tried to demonstrate the great risk for humans of the tritium released by Cernavoda NPP. Obviously this risk is very low as demonstrated by many years reactor operation. SNN as owner of Cernavoda NPP ensures by all kind of information channels about the radioactive potential risk for humans. By the other hand, ironically, the antinuclear NGO makes nothing to inform the people about radon risk magnitude in some areas. This is a well-known fact but the radon concentration in dwellings can be decreased by some improved building procedures. The radon is the first natural cause of lung cancer. The environmental NGO and Romanian authorities do not have an information service about radon hazard data neither in dwellings or in uranium mining areas. The paper compares the properties and risks for tritium and radon. (authors)

Surrounding Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mogens Steffensen

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

2012-11-01

Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

Radiation risk assessment for the transport of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM B(U) type container

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Woon-Kap

2008-01-01

The radiation risks were estimated for the transportation of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM transport container. KRI-BGM container was specially designed for transportation of large amount of radioisotopes for industrial or medical applications. The container can carry maximum 370 TBq of solid Ir-192, 29.6 TBq of liquid Mo-99 and 37 TBq of liquid I-131 respectively. For the radiation risk assessment, it was assumed that maximum design activity of those radioisotopes was transported. Transportation route is from Daejeon where radioisotopes are produced to Seoul where radioisotopes are consumed. Transport distance is 200 km including highway and downtown area from Daejeon to Seoul. As the transportation conveyance, an ordinary cargo truck is used exclusively. Radiation risks were estimated for incident free and accident condition of transportation and RADTRAN 5.6 was used as the risk assessment tool. For the risk assessment of radioisotopes transportation, various parameters such as population density around transport route, weather condition, probability of specific accidents such as impact, fire, etc. were considered. From the results of this study, the exclusive transportation of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM transport container by truck showed low radiological risks with manageable safety and health consequences. This paper discusses the methods and results of the radiation risks assessment for the radioisotopes transportation by an ordinary truck and presents the expected radiation risks in person-Sv and latent cancer fatalities. (author)

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Novák, Martin

2010-01-01

The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

2015-01-01

The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

Who is responsible for food risks? The influence of risk type and risk characteristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina

2009-01-01

The influence of food risk type and risk characteristics on food risk responsibility judgments was studied. A total of 1270 Finnish consumers judged their personal responsibility and the responsibility of three non-personal targets, industry, retail, and society, in relation to six food...

Acrylamide in Romanian food using HPLC-UV and a health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Oroian, Mircea; Amariei, Sonia; Gutt, Gheorghe

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the level of acrylamide from coffee, potato chips and French fries in Romanian food. According to the European Food Safety Authority, coffee beans, potato chips and French fries have the highest levels of acrylamide. For this survey, 50 samples of coffee beans, 50 samples of potato chips and 25 samples of French fries were purchased from different producers from the Romanian market. Acrylamide levels have been quantified using high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD) method, using water as mobile phase. Health risk assessment was achieved by computing the average daily intake, hazard quotient, cumulative risk, carcinogenic risk and cancer risk. For coffee, potato chips and French fries, acrylamide was not shown to pose a health risk in Romanian food.

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

Nuclear and non-nuclear risks: Address to the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gittus, J.

1988-01-01

Risk assessment is first explained. For example, for a loss of coolant accident at Sizewell B the estimate of the likelihood that radioactivity would be released involves three numbers:- the frequency of loss of coolant from the reactor; how often the safety pumps which would have to work in case of a loss of coolant have failed when tested; and the chance that the containment round the reactor will fail. As each risk number is small, the combined risk is very small. Using the same method of assessment the risk of an accident affecting public safety at the liquid gas plant on Canvey Island is 1000 larger, but still small and acceptable. Much time and money was spent on establishing the 1000 times lower risk of an accident affecting public safety at the Sizewell reactor. The risk assessment was however, finally accepted. Fast reactors are even safer than pressurised water reactors and use a renewable energy source; their development is strongly advocated. It is noted that the risks from a medieval water-wheel were enormous compared with nuclear risks today. (U.K.)

Dietary habits contributing to breast cancer risk among Iranian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Mobarakeh, Zahra Sheikhi; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Hatmi, Nadia; Ebrahimi, Mandana; Dabiran, Sohaila; Sotoudeh, Gity

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate demographic features, dietary habits, and some possible risk factors for being susceptible to breast cancer in Iranian women. A study of dietary habits and breast cancer was conducted among 53 Iranian women with histological confirmed disease and 40 matched controls. A dietary habits questionnaire was used to evaluate the pattern of selected food intakes. The risk of cancer was analyzed after adjustment for confounding factors. Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, educational status, parity, lactation, marital status, menopause, history of estrogen therapy, and family history of breast disease or cancer were assessed among participants. Special attention was given to the relationship between consumption of high fat meat, milk, yogurt and cheese as well use of frying oils for frying foods, use of olive/liquid oils for cooking, removing fat from meat and poultry, removing chicken skin and not use of mayonnaise as salad dressing and the risk of breast cancer. Moreover, salad, vegetable and fruit consumption, and eating outdoors owere investigated. Our results revealed significant lower education and higher BMI and waist circumference levels in patients with breast cancer. There was significantly increased breast cancer risk in overweight women in comparison with normal weight (OR=2.91, 95%CI 1.24 to 6.82). High intake of fat dairy products including milk and cheese was found to be a statistically significant factor for increasing breast cancer risk in models adjusting for age, BMI and education. Use of olive/liquid oils for cooking and avoidance of mayonnaise as salad dressing are related to lower risk of breast cancer. The frequency of vegetable and fruit consumption was significantly lower in patients with breast cancer compared to healthy women. Dietary habits might be risk factors for breast cancer among Iranian women. Adoption of a prudent diet could be an appropriate strategy for preventing breast

The impact of ownership structure on bank credit risk: Evidence from Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niluthpaul SARKER

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of ownership structure of Commercial Banks on bank credit risk in an emerging market like Bangladesh. Prais Winten regression model is applied to a sample of 32 commercial banks from the year of 2000 to 2014 with 390 observations. The result reveals that National Commercial Banks, depositors’ influence, shareholders’ influence, liquidity and profitability are negatively associated with credit risk whereas lag risk has a significant positive impact on credit risk. The effect of banks ownership structure on credit risk divulges a delicate governance of the banking sector. The study conveys a momentous implication of research findings in the national economy. It also found that national commercial banks have the tendency of violating the rules and absorbing heavy risk. It suggests that policy maker should rethink about the government ownership of banks. Therefore the denationalization or reducing government ownership structure is highly recommended.

Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence.

Science.gov (United States)

Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks.

Risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

2007-01-01

This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

Risk perception in women with high-risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.

2014-01-01

Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects the decisions they make about antenatal care and so may therefore influence the wellbeing of mother and baby. This article addresses the factors which influence women when making risk assessments and how these assessments may differ from those of healthcare professionals.\\ud \\ud Women use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status including advice from professionals, from other trusted sources, and their own intui...

Risk assessment and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1978-01-01

With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

CERN Document Server

Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

2014-01-01

This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

The risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

2006-01-01

In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Risks of tobacco

Science.gov (United States)

Secondhand smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... tobacco that are known to cause cancer. HEALTH RISKS OF SMOKING OR USING SMOKELESS TOBACCO Knowing the ...

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Exacerbated vulnerability of coupled socio-economic risk in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin; Feng, Ling; Berman, Yonatan; Hu, Ning; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

The study of risk contagion in economic networks has most often focused on the financial liquidities of institutions and assets. In practice the agents in a network affect each other through social contagion, i.e., through herd behavior and the tendency to follow leaders. We study the coupled risk between social and economic contagion and find it significantly more severe than when economic risk is considered alone. Using the empirical network from the China venture capital market we find that the system exhibits an extreme risk of abrupt phase transition and large-scale damage, which is in clear contrast to the smooth phase transition traditionally observed in economic contagion alone. We also find that network structure impacts market resilience and that the randomization of the social network of the market participants can reduce system fragility when there is herd behavior. Our work indicates that under coupled contagion mechanisms network resilience can exhibit a fundamentally different behavior, i.e., an abrupt transition. It also reveals the extreme risk when a system has coupled socio-economic risks, and this could be of interest to both policy makers and market practitioners.

Technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1998-01-01

The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

Technological risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

1998-07-01

The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas C. Chiang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced into the Chinese stocks. The paper concludes that the risk-return tradeoff is present in the GARCH-in-mean, local downside risk-return, and global risk-return relations.

Risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briscoe, G.J.

1977-06-01

Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

Background risk information to assist in risk management decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; White, R.K.; Miller, D.B.

1992-10-01

The evaluation of the need for remedial activities at hazardous waste sites requires quantification of risks of adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem resulting from the presence of chemical and radioactive substances at these sites. The health risks from exposure to these substances are in addition to risks encountered because of the virtually unavoidable exposure to naturally occurring chemicals and radioactive materials that are present in air, water, soil, building materials, and food products. To provide a frame of reference for interpreting risks quantified for hazardous waste sites, it is useful to identify the relative magnitude of risks of both a voluntary and involuntary nature that are ubiquitous throughout east Tennessee. In addition to discussing risks from the ubiquitous presence of background carcinogens in the east Tennessee environment, this report also presents risks resulting from common, everyday activities. Such information should, not be used to discount or trivialize risks from hazardous waste contamination, but rather, to create a sensitivity to general risk issues, thus providing a context for better interpretation of risk information

Risk management overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGovern, S.

1995-01-01

Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jeong Gon; Byun, Hun Soo

2014-01-01

Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks

Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jeong Gon [Hanwha Chemical Ulsan Site, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hun Soo [Chonnam National University, Yeosu (Korea, Republic of)

2014-12-15

Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks.

Evaluation of the radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menossi, C.A.; Segado, R.; Reyes, R.

1983-01-01

A probability model for the evaluation of the individual radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water in 200-liter drums is presented. In order to evaluate such risk, an evaluation must be made of the probability for an individual to be involved in the consequences of a radiological transport accident, to incur a given dose and to suffer deleterious effects resulting from the dose incurred. With the purpose of quantifying the importance of accidents, a severity level classification was adopted as a function of the fraction of liquid volume spilled as a result of the accident. Considering the above-mentioned severity classification and the transported volume, the volume and the spill area are implied, while the soil characteristics are taken into account. By evaluating the spill characteristics, the average meteorological conditions in the area under analysis and the activity concentration of the transported liquid, the activity concentration values for tritium in air may be estimated, thus allowing calculation of the effective dose equivalent to be incurred by the individual who is most exposed to the consequences of an associated event. As a result of the summarized analysis above, a value of the individual risk per unit of activity concentration is obtained for tritium and for a given volume of transported liquid. 8 references

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN RETURN AND RISK OF BANKS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almir Alihodžić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the last two years, the profitability of the banking sector of Serbia has indicated the occasional tendency to recovery. Viewed over the long term, profitability of the banking sector is primarily a function of an increase in lending activities with increased control in the field of credit risk because the credit risk is an essential problem of the banking sector in the Republic of Serbia, the region and individual EU countries. Unlike credit risk, liquidity risk is very insignificant. In this paper, through an approach that has been developed by Alberts, we will explore the correlation between return and risk for a larger group of banks in the Republic of Serbia. Therefore, the main objective of the paper is to determine whether factors such as the size of the bank, i.e. business operations, lending activities, the competitive environment and the style of management of the bank have an impact on the trade-off between return and risk

Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

OpenAIRE

Valentin Mazareanu

2007-01-01

We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

Debunking vaccination myths: strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Betsch, Cornelia; Sachse, Katharina

2013-02-01

Information about risks is often contradictory, especially in the health domain. A vast amount of bizarre information on vaccine-adverse events (VAE) can be found on the Internet; most are posted by antivaccination activists. Several actors in the health sector struggle against these statements by negating claimed risks with scientific explanations. The goal of the present work is to find optimal ways of negating risk to decrease risk perceptions. In two online experiments, we varied the extremity of risk negations and their source. Perception of the probability of VAE, their expected severity (both variables serve as indicators of perceived risk), and vaccination intentions. Paradoxically, messages strongly indicating that there is "no risk" led to a higher perceived vaccination risk than weak negations. This finding extends previous work on the negativity bias, which has shown that information stating the presence of risk decreases risk perceptions, while information negating the existence of risk increases such perceptions. Several moderators were also tested; however, the effect occurred independently of the number of negations, recipient involvement, and attitude. Solely the credibility of the information source interacted with the extremity of risk negation: For credible sources (governmental institutions), strong and weak risk negations lead to similar perceived risk, while for less credible sources (pharmaceutical industries) weak negations lead to less perceived risk than strong negations. Optimal risk negation may profit from moderate rather than extreme formulations as a source's trustworthiness can vary.

The influence of narrative risk communication on feelings of cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein; Lechner, Lilian

2013-05-01

Evidence is accumulating for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours, but best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. The aim of this experimental study was to compare the effects of narrative and non-narrative risk communication about sunbed use on ease of imagination and feelings of cancer risk. A total of 233 female sunbed users in the general Dutch population were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a narrative message (i.e., personal testimonial), a non-narrative cognitive message (i.e., factual risk information using cognitive-laden words), or a non-narrative affective message (i.e., factual risk information using affective-laden words). Ease of imagination and feelings of risk were assessed directly after the risk information was given (T1). Three weeks after the baseline session, feelings of risk were measured again (T2). The results revealed that sunbed users who were exposed to narrative risk information could better imagine themselves developing skin cancer and reported higher feelings of skin cancer risk at T1. Moreover, ease of imagination mediated the effects of message type on feelings of risk at T1 and T2. The findings provide support for the effects of narrative risk communication in influencing feelings of cancer risk through ease of imagination. Cancer prevention programmes may therefore benefit from including narrative risk information. Future research is important to investigate other mechanisms of narrative information and their most effective content and format. What is already known on this subject? Evidence is growing for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours. Narratives have increasingly been considered as an effective format for persuasive risk messages and studies have shown narrative risk communication to be effective in influencing cognitive risk beliefs. What does this study add? Increasing understanding of how feelings of cancer

Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

2012-04-01

In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety

The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

2005-01-01

Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

Momentum in stock market returns: Implications for risk premia on foreign currencies

OpenAIRE

Thomas Nitschka

2010-01-01

Momentum in foreign stock market returns is exploitable as signal of currency excess returns. Past stock market winner currencies offer higher returns than past stock market loser currencies. This finding is unrelated to interest rate differentials. Funding liquidity risk explains the time series variation in foreign stock market momentum sorted currency portfolio returns. Their cross-sectional dispersion is hardly rationalized by systematic risk factors in contrast to forward discount and cu...

Got Risk? Using Risk Transfers to Control Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Bambino, Robert

2010-01-01

For public school districts, risk financing is the financial outlay associated with litigation, such as settlements, verdicts, and the cost of legal defense. Even when districts purchase insurance to finance risk, a viable risk transfer program can still benefit districts in different ways: (1) Liability policies are generally experience-rated;…

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

Negative Affect, Risk Perception, and Adolescent Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Laura A.; Youngblade, Lise M.

2006-01-01

The prevalence, etiology, and consequences of adolescent risk behavior have stimulated much research. The current study examined relationships among anger and depressive symptomatology (DS), risk perception, self-restraint, and adolescent risk behavior. Telephone surveys were conducted with 290 14- to 20-year-olds (173 females; M = 15.98 years).…

Risk and society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.

1999-01-01

This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation effects and risks: overview and a new risk perception index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehani, M.M.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty provides opportunities for differences in perception, and radiation risks at low level of exposures involved in few computed tomography scans fall in this category. While there is good agreement among national and international organisations on risk probability of cancer, risk perception has barely been dealt with by these organisations. Risk perception is commonly defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Severity and latency are important factors in perception. There is a need to connect all these. Leaving risk perception purely as a subjective judgement provides opportunities for people to amplifying risk. The author postulates a risk perception index as severity divided by latency that becomes determining factor for risk perception. It is hoped that this index will bring rationality in risk perception. (authors)

From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David J. Paulsen

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2014-01-01

Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2014-08-01

Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental non-occupational risk factors associated with bladder cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrís, J; Berbel, O; Alonso-López, J; Garcia, J; Ortega, J A

2013-10-01

Bladder carcinoma (BC), due its high morbidity and relapsing course, generates significant economic and health care costs. Accordingly, review the environmental nonoccupational risk factors (RF), more or less evidence-based, in the etiology and pathogenesis of BC, because the involvement of urologists is essential for prevention. Review of the peer-reviewed literature (1987-2012) on nonoccupational environmental RF associated with BC retrieved from Medline, Embase and Science Citation Index. The search profiles have been "Risk factors/Epidemiology/Tobacco-smoking/Diet-nutrition-water-liquids/Radiation/Infectious/Farmacological drugs" and "Bladder cancer". Smoking was associated with 50% of BC in both sexes. Smokers have a 2-5 times higher risk than nonsmokers, directly proportional to the amount and duration of addiction. Drinking water contaminated with arsenic and chromium chlorination byproducts increases the risk of BC. High consumption of red meat and saturated fat may increase the risk, while high intake of fruits and vegetables decreases it. Patients treated with cyclophosphamide, ifosfamide and ionizing radiation have an increased risk of BC. Frequent and prolonged use of hair dyes and Schistosoma haematobium infestation increases the risk of BC. The reduction or the cessation of smoking decrease BC. The contaminant-free water consumption with the increase of vegetal foods favour BC prevention. Cancer survivors treated with cyclophosphamide, ifosfamide and radiation therapy should be monitored for early diagnosis of BC. Copyright © 2013 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

2009-01-01

Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

Industrial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1981-01-01

A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

Risk in Science Instruction. The Realist and Constructivist Paradigms of Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Julia; Hammann, Marcus

2017-11-01

Risk is always present in people's lives: diseases, new technologies, socio-scientific issues (SSIs) such as climate change, and advances in medicine—to name just a few examples—all carry risks. To be able to navigate risks in everyday life, as well as to participate in social debate on risk-related issues, students need to develop risk competence. Science education can be a powerful tool in supporting students' risk competence, which is an important component of scientific literacy. As there are different definitions of risk within the scientific community, the aims of this article are (1) to review the literature on two major theoretical frameworks for conceptualising risk, the realist, and the constructivist paradigms of risk and (2) to connect both in order to suggest a working definition of what can be understood as risk competence in science instruction.

Climatic risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

2005-04-01

The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

riskRegression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

2017-01-01

In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

Nuclear power plant risk assembly and decomposition for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iden, D.C.

1985-01-01

The state-of-the-art method for analyzing the risk from nuclear power plants is probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The intermediate results of a PRA are first assembled to quantify the risk from operating a nuclear power plant in the form of (1) core damage (or core melt) frequency, (2) plant damage state frequencies, (3) release category frequencies, and (4) the frequency of exceeding specific levels of offsite consequences. Once the overall PRA results have been quantified, the next step is to decompose those results into the individual contributors to each of the four forms of risk in some rank order. The way in which the PRA model is set up to assemble and decompose the plant risk determines the ease and usefulness of the PRA model as a risk management tool for evaluating perturbations to the PRA model. These perturbations can take the form of technical specification changes, hardware modifications, procedural changes, etc. The matrix formalism developed by Dr. Stan Kaplan for risk assembly and decomposition represents a significant breakthrough in making the PRA model an effective risk management tool. The key to understanding the matrix formalism and making it a useful tool for managing nuclear power plant risk is the structure of the PRA model. PRA risk model structure and decomposition of the risk results are discussed with the Seabrook PRA as an example

An approach to societal risk acceptance criteria and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.; Whipple, C.

1977-06-01

A quantitative approach to risk acceptance criteria and risk management is proposed for activities involving risk to individuals not receiving direct benefits, such as employment, from the activity. Societal activities are divided into major facilities or technologies, all or part of which are categorized as essential, beneficial, or peripheral, and a decreasing level of acceptable risk to the most exposed individual is proposed (say, 0.0002/year for essential, 0.00001/year for beneficial, and 0.000002/year for peripheral activity). The risk would be assessed at a high confidence level (say, 90%), thereby providing an incentive to the gaining of better knowledge. Each risk-producing facility, technology, etc., would have to undergo assessment both of risk to the individual and to society. The cost of the latter would have to be internalized, probably via a tax paid to the Federal Government, which in turn would redistribute the benefit as national health insurance or reduced taxes to the individual. Risk aversion to large events would be built into the internalization of the cost of risk

Risk monitor riskangel for risk-informed applications in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Fang; Wang, Jiaqun; Wang, Jin; Li, Yazhou; Hu, Liqin; Wu, Yican

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A general risk monitor riskangel with high-speed cutsets generator engine. • Benchmarks of actual nuclear power plant (NPP) instantaneous risk models. • Applications in daily operation, maintenance plan and component out of service. - Abstract: This paper studied the requirements of risk monitor software and its applications as a plant specific risk monitor, which supports risk-informed configuration risk management for the two CANDU 6 units at the Third Qinshan nuclear power plant (TQNPP) in China. It also describes the regulatory prospective on risk-informed Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) applications and the use of risk monitor at operating nuclear power plants, high level technical and functional requirements for the development of CANDU specific risk monitor software, and future development trends.

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Perceived risk and risk-taking behavior during the festival firework.

Science.gov (United States)

Saadat, Soheil; Naseripour, Masoud; Karbakhsh, Mojgan; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

2010-01-01

To investigate the relationship between perceived risk and risk-taking behaviors during the Iranian Last Wednesday Eve Fireworks (ILWEF). A random sample of 2475 Tehranian households were asked on perceived risk of injury, risk-taking behaviors, experience of injuries, and their perception of ability to manage the harmful events during the ILWEF. Lower perceived injury risk and higher perceived ability of managing an injured household member were associated with participation in fireworks practice and incidence of injury. These findings can be of practical importance to increase safety during festivals by improving risk perception in the community.

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Managing the total cost of risk exposures through risk mapping techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unione, A.J.; Rode, D.M.

1998-01-01

In a competitive power market, power producers are exposed to an increasingly broad spectrum of financial risks. The cumulative impact of these financial risks is known collectively as the Total of Cost of Risk. The concept of Total of Cost of Risk presents the business reality of a company's exposure to potentially devastating financial consequences in an integrated and useful way. In this way, a strategy of managing Total Cost of Risk in the most cost effective way can become a means of ensuring long term business health and security. This paper will examine the use of risk mapping as a tool for visually understanding Total Cost of Risk, thus creating an enhanced situational awareness and an integrated basis for risk management decision. The evaluation process, available through the use of risk maps allows the power producers to pro-actively implement prudent business decisions concerning the design, operation and maintenance of power plants. Risk mapping is thus a means for harmonizing operational objectives, such as improved plant reliability, with corporate strategies and goals in terms of an effective risk management program

Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

CERN Document Server

Hopkin, Paul

2012-01-01

Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

Risk Management and Risk Psychology in Romanian Sme’s

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Dănciulescu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Risk is one of the biggest and most fascinating challenges of all times for humanity, because of its presence in all fields. Risk management as a component of modern management, has become a main concern for the modern world and one of the “key mechanisms” of economic development, a complex processn that includes a series of activities meant to alleviate the impact of risk over business and planed or foreseen results. This paper wants to bring to attention the importance of risks and their management in today’s economic crisis. The sector presented is the IT& C, especially software, because Romania had a growth in this area for a few years but beginning the crisis this segment in economy had known a serious decrease. This paper tries to connect risk management and risk psychology to Romanian economy, culture and mentality. The paper presents in short some of risk management characteristics, definitions and few opinions; why in Romania this subject is not treated with the appropriate attention. The paper at hand focuses on the psychology of risk and how it affects the life of individuals and the existence of companies, the importance it should have on day to day basis, especially in Romania

Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

2008-01-01

Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

Synthetic risks, risk potency, and carcinogen regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Viscusi, W K; Hakes, J K

1998-01-01

This article analyzes a comprehensive sample of over 350 chemicals tested for carcinogenicity to assess the determinants of the probability of regulation. Controlling for differences in the risk potency and noncancer risks, synthetic chemicals have a significantly higher probability of regulation overall: this is due to the greater likelihood of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation. Measures of risk potency increase the probability of regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have a somewhat weaker positive effect on regulation by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and decrease the likelihood of regulation by the FDA. The overall regulatory pattern is one in which the FDA targets synthetic chemicals and chemicals that pose relatively minor cancer risk. The EPA particularly performed more sensibly than many critics have suggested.

Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

2018-07-01

Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... in paragraph (b) of this section as follows: (1) Risk Classification A if the location indicator is... in the program according to the following indicators of risk: (1) The location indicator is— (i) High... is— (i) High risk if the line is at least 18 inches in nominal diameter; (ii) Medium risk if the line...

Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Barshi, Immanuel

2016-01-01

Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

Nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levenson, M.

1989-01-01

The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Engineering risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

1991-01-01

The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

Project Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jr., R. F. Miles

1995-01-01

Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

An assessment of the low seismic risk of the inherently safe sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutherford, P.D.

1988-01-01

A recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR) demonstrated the inherently low risk of advanced liquid-metal, pool-type fast reactors with inherent safety systems. As a result, it was recognized that external events, especially seismic events, may not only be a major contributor to risk (as shown in several LWR PRAs) but also may completely dominate the risk. Accordingly, a seismic risk assessment has been completed for SAFR, which resulted in a core damage frequency of 2 x 10 -7 /year and a large release frequency of 4 x 10 -9 /year. This paper reports that public health risk in terms of early fatality risk and latent fatality risk were also several orders of magnitude below the NRC safety goals and below recent LWR risks reported in NUREB/CR1150

Catalog of risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, B L; Lee, I S [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Physics

1979-06-01

Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities.

Fuzzy risk matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

2008-01-01

A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

Management of Risks to Financial Stability from the Perspective of a Central Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Lățea

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This article investigates the main issues pertaining to a central bank’s concerns relative to financial stability, as seen from the perspective of risks, sources and key ways of action. At macroeconomic level, central banks need to identify and monitor the risk that market operators face payment default towards local entities (companies, households, government and/or foreign creditors. Moreover, central banks entrusted with supervisory and licensing tasks are also carefully examining the various risks threatening banks, be they credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk, or risks associated with exposure concentration and distribution. On financial markets, prices, profit margins, interest rates, net exposure to certain financial instruments must be monitored to be able to identify build - ups of risks, stress and significant drawbacks to its adequate functioning. Adding to these is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA1, which involves oversight and assessment of risks in various sectors as well as of the needs to counter them, by drawing on the real market data to identify the probability of default in one sector or another and the impact on other sectors in an integrated manner.

Prevention of occupational risks in animal experimentation; Prevencion de riesgos laborales en experimentacion animal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinez Palacio, J. (ed.)

2007-07-01

This work focuses on the main specific risks for those working with laboratory animals in a Research Center such as CIEMAT. First we present the general biological risks, their laws and rules. Next, we development the specific risks associated with the laboratory animals, zoonotic diseases and allergies. then we deal with the risks that can be consequence of working with laboratory animals, ionizing radiations, chemical products, genetically modified organisms, liquid nitrogen management, bio containment and human samples management. As they are subjects of interest, we also include the workers health assesment for those exposed to biological agents, including recommendations about hygiene and disinfections. (Author)

Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

2018-04-24

For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2004-01-01

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

A practical discussion of risk management for manufacturing of pharmaceutical products.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollah, A Hamid; Baseman, Harold S; Long, Mike; Rathore, Anurag S

2014-01-01

Quality risk management (QRM) is now a regulatory expectation, and it makes good business sense. The goal of the risk assessment is to increase process understanding and deliver safe and effective product to the patients. Risk analysis and management is an acceptable and effective way to minimize patient risk and determine the appropriate level of controls in manufacturing. While understanding the elements of QRM is important, knowing how to apply them in the manufacturing environment is essential for effective process performance and control. This article will preview application of QRM in pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical manufacturing to illustrate how QRM can help the reader achieve that objective. There are several areas of risk that a drug company may encounter in pharmaceutical manufacturing, specifically addressing oral solid and liquid formulations. QRM tools can be used effectively to identify the risks and develop strategy to minimize or control them. Risks are associated throughout the biopharmaceutical manufacturing process-from raw material supply through manufacturing and filling operations to final distribution via a controlled cold chain process. Assessing relevant attributes and risks for biotechnology-derived products is more complicated and challenging for complex pharmaceuticals. This paper discusses key risk factors in biopharmaceutical manufacturing. Successful development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products is all about managing risks. If a company was to take zero risk, most likely the path to commercialization would not be commercially viable. On the other hand, if the risk taken was too much, the product is likely to have a suboptimal safety and efficacy profile and thus is unlikely to be a successful product. This article addresses the topic of quality risk management with the key objective of minimizing patient risk while creating an optimal process and product. Various tools are presented to aid implementation of these

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

DEPENDENCE OF COUNTRY RISK COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents some of the fundamental aspects of country risk’dependence compared to foreign debt level. Starting from external debt burden we analyze the usage of foreign loans, foreign debt bearing capacity as well as the availability of data regarding the external debt. Country risk represents the exposure to losses which may occur in a business with a foreign partner, caused by specific events that are, at least partially, controlled by the partner country’ government. Macroeconomic analysis of economic and financial component of country risk involves how this risk is influenced by government policy, by the economic role of government, bypricing strategies, investment priorities, financial structures, macroeconomic policy, by the ability to obtain foreign funds, the level of external debt as well as the liquidity and cash flows in that country.

Support mechanisms for renewables: How risk exposure influences investment incentives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lena Kitzing

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed-in premium scheme. The effect of differences in risk exposure from the support schemes is significant and cannot be neglected in policy making, especially when deciding between support instruments or when determining adequate support levels.

Risk perception and risk communication: lessons learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baillif, L.; Sackur, J.

1998-01-01

Industry can master risks but it cannot master the representations people have of these risks. This is why distortions may occur, as the public perceives risks where they are not, or in a totally deformed way. To deal with this type of situation which is dangerous in the long run, both for society and industry, it is necessary to study in detail where and how the difference between real risks and perceived risks is introduced. It then becomes possible to determine what means of action are available to manage the representations and the perceptions of risks. We shall mention two rather different examples of type of direct contact with the industrial reality; in France, we have determined policy of visits of nuclear sites (more than 10 000 people visit Cogema- la Hague site yearly), mainly addressed to school children and people living in the vicinity of the site. During these visits there is of course no question of explaining the detailed operation of the facility or the risks it generates. The purpose is to make the representation of the nuclear industry just as familiar as the representation of another large-scale technology tool: trains, dams,. In a different manner, missions are organised by Cogema - B.N.F.L.- O.R.C. (Overseas reprocessing Committee) to de dramatize the transport of high level vitrified wastes from Europe to Japan. these missions travel through those countries the ship come close to. Here, again, although the target is more the relays of opinion, the effective presence of specialized transport ship is a crucial element in putting a halt to phantasmic representations, as they are born from the remoteness of the object. (N.C.)

At your own risk. An inquiry about risk management in the ESI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The UNIPEDE survey on Risk Management within the Electricity Supply Industry has provided a picture of the risks facing the Industry at present and an insight into the management of tomorrow's risks. The survey, in which 81 companies (85 respondents) from 31 countries took part shows that: nearly all types of risk identified in the questionnaire are perceived to be growing : the Risk Management role has become more centralized over the past three years: change will slow in the coming three ; the amount of top level attention given to Risk Management is increasing. However only 37 % of respondent companies have Risk Management as a regular top level management item ; environment-related risks and the safety of both employees and the public are perceived as the most critical risks facing the Industry. Over 80 % of surveyed companies consider that both are of increasing concern ; almost 90 % of respondents agreed that risk management processes should be implemented for both pure and speculative risks. Those who disagreed maintained that Risk Management should be 'realistic not theoretical' ; respondents from the US gave markedly different answers to those from the rest of the world. Risk Management in the US receives top level attention, with numerous separated risk management departments handling risk strategy

Patient centered fall risk awareness perspectives: clinical correlates and fall risk

Science.gov (United States)

Verghese, Joe

2016-01-01

Background While objective measures to assess risk of falls in older adults have been established; the value of patient self-reports in the context of falls is not known. Objectives To identify clinical correlates of patient centered fall risk awareness, and their validity for predicting falls. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting and Participants 316 non-demented and ambulatory community-dwelling older adults (mean age 78 years, 55% women). Measurements Fall risk awareness was assessed with a two-item questionnaire, which asked participants about overall likelihood and personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Results Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (kappa 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on both fall risk awareness questions. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Conclusion Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. While patient centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies as they may influence participation and behaviors. PMID:27801936

Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Risk and cognition

CERN Document Server

Faucher, Colette

2015-01-01

This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge  within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: ·     Influence of the culture in risk management, ·     Influence of the risk communication in risk management, ·     User-centred design to improve risk situation management, ·     Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, ·     Risk prevention in industrial activities.

Reconceptualising risk: Perceptions of risk in rural and remote maternity service planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Barclay, Lesley; Kornelsen, Jude; Longman, Jo; Robin, Sarah; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue; Pilcher, Jennifer; Martin, Tanya; Grzybowski, Stefan; Donoghue, Deborah; Rolfe, Margaret; Morgan, Geoff

2016-07-01

to explore perceptions and examples of risk related to pregnancy and childbirth in rural and remote Australia and how these influence the planning of maternity services. data collection in this qualitative component of a mixed methods study included 88 semi-structured individual and group interviews (n=102), three focus groups (n=22) and one group information session (n=17). Researchers identified two categories of risk for exploration: health services risk (including clinical and corporate risks) and social risk (including cultural, emotional and financial risks). Data were aggregated and thematically analysed to identify perceptions and examples of risk related to each category. fieldwork was conducted in four jurisdictions at nine sites in rural (n=3) and remote (n=6) Australia. 117 health service employees and 24 consumers. examples and perceptions relating to each category of risk were identified from the data. Most medical practitioners and health service managers perceived clinical risks related to rural birthing services without access to caesarean section. Consumer participants were more likely to emphasise social risks arising from a lack of local birthing services. our analysis demonstrated that the closure of services adds social risk, which exacerbates clinical risk. Analysis also highlighted that perceptions of clinical risk are privileged over social risk in decisions about rural and remote maternity service planning. a comprehensive analysis of risk that identifies how social and other forms of risk contribute to adverse clinical outcomes would benefit rural and remote people and their health services. Formal risk analyses should consider the risks associated with failure to provide birthing services in rural and remote communities as well as the risks of maintaining services. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.

2003-01-01

Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

Risks in U.S. energy material transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, A.L.; Rhoads, R.E.; Andrews, W.B.

1982-01-01

For the past five years, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory has been conducting a programme to study the safety of transporting energy materials. The overall objectives of the programme are to develop information on the safety of transporting hazardous materials required to support the major energy cycles in the USA. This information was developed for use in making energy policy decisions; in designing and developing new or improved transportation systems for these materials; to help establish research priorities; and as an aid in developing effective transportation safety regulations. Risk analysis was selected as the methodology for performing these studies. This methodology has been applied to rail and highway shipments of nuclear fuel cycle materials and liquid and gaseous fossil fuels. Studies of the risks of transporting spent nuclear fuel by train and uranium ore concentrates (yellow cake) by truck were expected to be issued early in 1981. Analyses of the risks of transporting reactor waste and transuranic wastes are in progress. The work completed to date for nuclear material transportation makes it possible to estimate the transportation risks for the entire fuel cycle in the USA. Results of the assessment are presented in this paper. Because the risk analysis studies for the transportation of gasoline, propane and chlorine have been performed using a methodology, basic assumptions and data that are consistent with the studies that have been performed for nuclear materials, comparisons between the risks for nuclear materials and these materials can also be made. It should be noted that it is not the intention of these comparisons to judge the safety of one industry in comparison with another. These comparisons can, however, provide some insights into the regulatory philosophy for hazardous materials transportation. The remaining sections of the paper briefly review the risk-analysis methodology used in these studies, provide an overview of the systems

Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strašek Sebastjan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Potential risks of "risk" language in breastfeeding advocacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Lora J Ebert; Taylor, Erin N

2011-06-21

In this article the authors analyze the use of "risks of formula language" versus "benefits of breastfeeding language" in breastfeeding advocacy texts. Feeding intentionality and 434 adult respondents' assessments of advocacy texts were examined at a mid-western university in the fall of 2009. No significant difference was observed between those who read text phrased in terms of "risks of formula feeding" and those who read text describing "benefits of breastfeeding" in feeding intentionality. Results supported the expectation that respondents would less favorably assess texts using risk language-respondents rated risk texts as less trustworthy, accurate, and helpful compared to benefit text. Texts were also varied in "medical" and "breastfeeding advocacy group" affiliations. Analyses revealed that texts including the medical logo were rated significantly more favorably compared to breastfeeding advocacy logo and no logo conditions. Findings suggest that use of risk language may not be an advantageous health promotion strategy, but may be counter-productive to the goals of breastfeeding advocates.

Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

2001-01-01

As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

Does radiation risk exist?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Passchier, W.

1996-01-01

Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oeien, Knut

2001-07-01

Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

[Global risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

2015-08-01

Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John W.

2011-01-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John W. Collins

2011-09-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

Person-Centered Fall Risk Awareness Perspectives: Clinical Correlates and Fall Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Verghese, Joe

2016-12-01

To identify clinical correlates of person-centered fall risk awareness and their validity for predicting falls. Prospective cohort study. Community. Ambulatory community-dwelling older adults without dementia (N = 316; mean age 78, 55% female). Fall risk awareness was assessed using a two-item questionnaire that asked participants about overall likelihood of someone in their age group having a fall and their own personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (κ = 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on either fall risk awareness question. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. Although person-centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies because they may influence participation and behaviors. © 2016, Copyright the Author Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Support Mechanisms for Renewables: How Risk Exposure Influences Investment Incentives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kitzing, Lena; Weber, Christoph

2015-01-01

and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed......We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital...

Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae

2002-01-01

A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Effects of an LMR-based partitioning-transmutation system on US nuclear fuel cycle health risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaels, G.E.; Reich, W.J.

1992-01-01

Health risks for the current US nuclear fuel cycle and for an illustrative partitioning and transmutation (P-T) fuel cycle based on Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) technology are calculated and compared. Health risks are calculated for all non-reactor fuel cycle steps, including reprocessing, transportation, and high-level waste (HLW) disposal. Uranium mining and milling health risks have been updated to include recent occupational injury and death statistics, and the radiological health risk to the general public posed by the uranium mining overburden. In addition, the radiological health risks for transportation have been updated to include latent cancer fatalities associated with both normal transport and accidents. Given the assumptions of the study, it is shown that the deployment of an LMR-based P-T system is expected to reduce overall nuclear fuel cycle health risk

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Science.gov (United States)

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

The impact of risk factors on the financial performance of the commercial banking sector in Barbados

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony Wood

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of risk factors on the financial performance of the commercial banking sector in Barbados using quarterly data for the period 2000 to 2015. The empirical results indicate that Capital Risk, Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk, Interest Rate Risk and Operational Risk have statistically significant impacts on financial performance. The only risk variable which does not derive this result is Country Risk. In addition, of those variables which proxy external factors, only GDP Growth has a statistically insignificant influence on financial performance. Credit risk exerted a negative impact on the banks’ financial performance, thus the banks must ensure they adopt appropriate measures to minimise the impact of this risk. Higher levels of capital impacted positively on the banking sector’s profitability. This paper is the first effort employing such an extensive dataset based on Barbados’ commercial banking sector and shows the main factors that influence commercial banks’ financial performance in this developing economy.

Rethinking risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloman, H.F.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

'Strange money': risk, finance and socialized debt.

Science.gov (United States)

Dodd, Nigel

2011-03-01

This paper explores an essential but neglected aspect of recent discussions of the banking and financial system, namely money itself. Specifically, I take up a distinction drawn by Susan Strange which has never been fully elaborated: between a financial system that is global, and an international monetary system that remains largely territorial. I propose a sociological elaboration of this distinction by examining each category, 'finance' and 'money', in terms of its distinctive orientation to risk and debt. Money is distinguished by its high degree of liquidity and low degree of risk, corresponding to expectations that derive from its status as a 'claim upon society'- a form of socialized debt. But as Strange argued, these features of money are being undermined by the proliferation of sophisticated instruments of financial risk management -'strange money'- that, as monetary substitutes, both weaken states' capacity to manage money, and more broadly, contribute to 'overbanking'. The ultimate danger, according to Strange, is the 'death of money'. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the distinction for sociological arguments about the changing nature of money. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2011.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Wholesale funding, coordination, and credit risk

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Lei; Zhang , Lin; Zheng, Yong

2013-01-01

We use the global games approach to study key factors affecting the credit risk\\ud associated with roll-over of bank debt. When creditors are heterogenous, these include\\ud the extent of short-term borrowing and capital market liquidity for repo financing.\\ud Specifically, in a model with a large institutional creditor and a continuum of small\\ud creditors independently making their roll-over decisions based on private information,\\ud we find that increasing the proportion of short-term debt and/...

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

2013-01-01

Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

Low Risk Anomalies?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Complex risk analysis for loss of electric power in liquid metal nuclear reactor by system dynamics (SD) method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woo, Tae Ho [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

2012-07-15

The power stabilization of the nuclear power plants (NPPs) is investigated in the aspect of the liquid metal coolant. The quantification of the risk analysis is performed by the system dynamics (SD) method which is processed by the feedback and accumulation complex algorithms. The Vensim software package is used for the simulations, which is supported by the Monte-Carlo method. There are 2 kinds of considerations as the economic and safety properties. The result shows the stability of the operations when the power can be decided. This shows the higher efficiency of the reactor. The failure frequency is 16/60 = 27%. In the event of Power Stabilized, the failure event is in the quite lower frequency rate. The commercial use of the reactor is important in the operations. (orig.)

Effect of engineered safety features on the risk of hypothetical LMFBR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cybulskis, P.

1978-01-01

The risks of hypothetical core-disruptive accidents in liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors which involve meltthrough of the reactor vessel are compared for two plant designs: one design without specific provisions to accommodate such an accident and the other design with an ex-vessel core catcher and a cvity hot liner. The approach to risk analysis used is that developed in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). Since the probability of occurrence of such an event has not been evaluated, however, insight into the potential risk is gained only on a relative basis. The principal conclusions of this study are: (1) adding a core catcher--hot liner reduces the probabilty of accidents having major consequences; (2) the degree to which hot liner--core catcher systems can reduce the risk of melt-through accidents is limited by the failure probability of these systems; (3) fractional radioactive releases to the environment in the liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactor accidents considered are comparable to those from the light-water reactors evaluated in WASH-1400; (4) since sodium--concrete reactions are a dominant driving force during the accident, the integrity of the cavity liner is as important as the function of the core catcher; (5) there may be other accidents or paths to radioactive releases that are not affected by the addition of a hot liner--core catcher

Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

2017-01-01

Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

[Incentive for Regional Risk Selection in the German Risk Structure Compensation Scheme].

Science.gov (United States)

Wende, Danny

2017-10-01

The introduction of the new law GKV-FQWG strengthens the competition between statutory health insurance. If incentives for risk selection exist, they may force a battle for cheap customers. This study aims to document and discuss incentives for regional risk selection in the German risk structure compensation scheme. Identify regional autocorrelation with Moran's l on financial parameters of the risk structure compensation schema. Incentives for regional risk selection do indeed exist. The risk structure compensation schema reduces 91% of the effect and helps to reduce risk selection. Nevertheless, a connection between regional situation and competition could be shown (correlation: 69.5%). Only the integration of regional control variables into the risk compensation eliminates regional autocorrelation. The actual risk structure compensation is leading to regional inequalities and as a consequence to risk selection and distortion in competition. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Outlook for risk assessment and risk-informed regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.; Breutel, C.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

2000-01-01

The Western nuclear regulatory process has evolved from the initial engineering judgment' framework of the 1960's, the prescriptive deterministic requirements of the 1970s, the transition years of the 1980s, to the present day movement toward risk-informed approaches. In this paper, a short overview of the historic development of safety regulation is provided. The critique of traditional regulatory practice will be summarized and the features of risk-informed regulation will be discussed. The implementation of risk-informed regulation is considered on the basis of general legal principles common to many member states of the NEA and IAEA. In a process to risk-inform regulation, principles such as equal treatment, proportionality of rules and predictability of administrative action are found to be important. (author)

Intuitive risk perception: research results of attitude surveys toward risk and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Peters, H.P.

1982-01-01

Using the instruments of the empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severity of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks

Risk from environmental chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

1982-01-01

The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Optimizing risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kindred, G.W.

2000-01-01

Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

Risk concept and risk management in the field of power installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stein, Manfred; Barbulescu, Christiana; Anastasiu, Dan; Ionescu, Dumitru Cezar; Iliescu-Saligny, Paul; Iordache, Vasile

1996-01-01

The paper presents several opinions concerning general as well as specific aspects related to the risk management and the use of this concept in the field of power generation. Assessment possibilities of disturbing phenomena are analyzed including severe events leading to failures in power installations. Circumstances of occurring of such events are considered. This paper contains 4 sections. In the introduction the definition of the concept of risk is given. Risk is thus related to both events of a distinct nature with potentially dangerous consequences and events occurring in current operation of installations of different types. The risk notion is as important as other probabilistic indicators characterizing the power installation operation, i.e. availability, reliability, maintenance, etc. The section 2 approaches the concept of risk and argues for the necessity of quantifying it. Two probabilistic indicators are introduced, namely, the occurring probability of a disturbing event and the occurring frequency. To establish an algorithm of risk evaluation the risk notion should be dissociated into two components, the 'intrinsic' or 'initial' risk and the 'associated' risk. In turn, the latter could be divided into two types of risks, namely, the risk of an extant sustaining factor and the risk characterizing the exposure to the effects of the considered events. Applications of these notions for the cases of nuclear accidents, urban electricity or heating breakdown, energy supply breakdown in chemical facilities and others are given. The third section deals with risk management in power sector. Three objectives are here taken into account, i.e., ensuring the safety in operation of adopted systems, ensuring the safety of these systems from the consumers' standpoints and ensuring the environment protection. Examples for using the concepts introduced in case of electrical power stations or energy supply systems are given