WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk liquidity risk

  1. Liquidity Risk and Syndicate Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Evan Gatev; Philip Strahan

    2008-01-01

    We offer a new explanation of loan syndicate structure based on banks' comparative advantage in managing systematic liquidity risk. When a syndicated loan to a rated borrower has systematic liquidity risk, the fraction of passive participant lenders that are banks is about 8% higher than for loans without liquidity risk. In contrast, liquidity risk does not explain the share of banks as lead lenders. Using a new measure of ex-ante liquidity risk exposure, we find further evidence that syndica...

  2. Liquidity risk and contagion for liquid funds

    OpenAIRE

    Darolles , Serge; Dudek , Jeremy; Le Fol , Gaëlle

    2014-01-01

    Fund managers face liquidity problems but they have to distinguish the market liquidity risk implied by their assets and the funding liquidity risk. This latter is due to both the liquidity mismatch between assets and liabilities and the redemption risk due to the possible outflows from clients. The main contribution of this paper is the analysis of contagion looking at common market liquidity problems to detect funding liquidity problems. Using the CDS Bond Spread basis as a liquidity indica...

  3. Risk allocation under liquidity constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Csóka, P.; Herings, P.J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Risk allocation games are cooperative games that are used to attribute the risk of a financial entity to its divisions. In this paper, we extend the literature on risk allocation games by incorporating liquidity considerations. A liquidity policy specifies state-dependent liquidity requirements that

  4. Liquidity policies and systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina

    2013-01-01

    The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries’ leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies’ implications ...

  5. The risk components of liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Chollete, Lorán; Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.

    2008-01-01

    Does liquidity risk differ depending on our choice of liquidity proxy? Unlike literature that considers common liquidity variation, we focus on identifying different components of liquidity, statistically and economically, using more than a decade of US transaction data. We identify three main statistical liquidity factors which are utilized in a linear asset pricing framework. We motivate a correspondence of the statistical factors to traditional dimensions of liquidity as well as the notion...

  6. Contextual factors in liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonner, C.; van Lelyveld, I.P.P.; Zymek, R.

    2015-01-01

    We assess the determinants of banks’ liquidity holdings using data for nearly 7000 banks from 25 OECD countries. We highlight the role of several bank-specific, institutional and policy variables in shaping banks’ liquidity risk management. Our main question is whether liquidity regulation

  7. Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adam-Müller, A F A; Panaretou, A

    2009-01-01

    Futures hedging creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters if interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a markup over the risk-free rate. This study analyzes the optimal risk management and production decisions of a firm facing joint price and liquidity risk. It provides a rationale for the use of options on futures in imperfect capital markets. If liquidity risk materializes, the firm sells options on futures in order to partly cover this liqui...

  8. Liquidity Risk and Distressed Equity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medhat, Mamdouh

    I show theoretically and empirically that cash holdings can help rationalize the low returns to distressed equity. In my model, levered firms with financing constraints optimally choose their cash holdings to eliminate liquidity risk and optimally default when insolvent. Using data on solvency......, liquidity, and returns for US firms, I find evidence consistent with the model’s predictions: (1) In all solvency levels, the average firm holds enough liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities; less solvent firms have (2) a higher fraction of their total assets in liquid assets and therefore (3......) lower conditional betas and (4) lower returns; (5) the profits of long-short solvency strategies are highest among firms with low liquidity; and (6) the profits of long-short liquidity strategies are highest among firms with low solvency....

  9. Liquidity (risk) concepts: definitions and interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolaou, Kleopatra

    2009-01-01

    We discuss the notion of liquidity and liquidity risk within the financial system. We distinguish between three different liquidity types, central bank liquidity, funding and market liquidity and their relevant risks. In order to understand the workings of financial system liquidity, as well as the role of the central bank, we bring together relevant literature from different areas and review liquidity linkages among these three types in normal and turbulent times. We stress that the root of ...

  10. Liquidity risk premia in corporate bond markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the role of liquidity risk in the pricing of corporate bonds. We show that corporate bond returns have significant exposures to fluctuations in treasury bond liquidity and equity market liquidity. Further, this liquidity risk is a priced factor for the expected returns on

  11. Liquidity Risk in Banking : Is there Herding?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonfim, D.; Kim, M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Banks individually optimize their liquidity risk management, often neglecting the externalities generated by their choices on the overall risk of the financial system. This is the main argument to support the regulation of liquidity risk. However, there may be incentives, related for

  12. Liquidity risk charges as a macroprudential tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2009-01-01

    Liquidity risk charges were proposed in February 2009 as a new macro-prudential tool to discourage systemic risk creation by banks. A new CEPR Policy Insight refines this proposal in order to clarify challenging issues surrounding the implementation of liquidity risk charges.

  13. Rollover risk, liquidity and macroprudential regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ahnert, Toni

    2014-01-01

    I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post. Precautionary liquidity restores multiple equilibria in a global rollover game. An intermediate liquidity level supports both the usual run equilibrium and an efficient equilibrium. I provide a uniqueness refinement to characterize the privately optimal liquidity choice. Because of fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitutes. Intermediaries f...

  14. Liquidity constraints, risk premia, and themacroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaccard, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    We study the transmission of liquidity shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms and households are subject to liquidity risk. The provision of liquidity services is undertaken by financial intermediaries that allocate the stock of liquid asset between the different sectors of the economy. We find that the macroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks are considerably larger in the model economy that generates a realistic equity premium. Liquidity constraints amplify business cycl...

  15. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.

    2012-01-01

    We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia

  16. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  17. Liquidity and Transparency in Bank Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Lev Ratnovski

    2013-01-01

    Banks may be unable to refinance short-term liabilities in case of solvency concerns. To manage this risk, banks can accumulate a buffer of liquid assets, or strengthen transparency to communicate solvency. While a liquidity buffer provides complete insurance against small shocks, transparency covers also large shocks but imperfectly. Due to leverage, an unregulated bank may choose insufficient liquidity buffers and transparency. The regulatory response is constained: while liquidity buffers ...

  18. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

  19. Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity and ECB Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

    This paper explores the interaction between credit risk and liquidity, in the context of the intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB), during the Euro-zone crisis. The laboratory for our investigation is the Italian sovereign bond market, the largest in the Euro-zone. We use a unique data...... between changes in Italian sovereign credit risk and liquidity in the secondary bond market, conditional on the level of credit risk, measured by the Italian sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread. We demonstrate the existence of a threshold of 500 basis points (bp) in the CDS spread, above which...... there is a structural change in this relationship. Other global systemic factors also a ffect market liquidity, but the speci c credit risk of primary dealers plays only a modest role in a ffecting market liquidity, especially under conditions of stress. Moreover, the data indicate that there is a clear structural...

  20. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P

    We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)

  1. Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential

  2. Liquidity Risk Sensitivity of Czech Commercial Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavla Vodová

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial crisis has shown that a liquidity risk plays an important role in the current developed financial system. One of the efficient tools of liquidity risk management is stress testing which can show banks their potential vulnerability to liquidity shocks. The aim of this paper is therefore to measure the liquidity risk sensitivity of Czech commercial banks and to find out the most severe scenario and the most vulnerable bank. Our sample included significant part of the Czech banking sector; we used unconsolidated balance sheet data over the period from 2000 to 2011 which were obtained from annual reports of Czech banks. We have evaluated liquidity risk of each bank in the sample via six different liquidity ratios. Then we stressed these baseline values in three stress scenarios: run on a bank (simulated by a 20% withdrawal of deposits, confidence crisis on the interbank market (simulated by a withdrawal of 20% of interbank deposits and use of committed loans by counterparties (simulated by a 5% increase of loans provided to nonbank clients. We measured the impact of all scenarios by relative change of liquidity ratios. The impact of modelled liquidity shocks differs among scenarios. The most serious liquidity problems would be caused by the first scenario – run on a bank. The negative influence of third scenario (use of committed loans is less severe. The confidence crisis on the interbank market would not affect bank liquidity at all. The results also show that the severity of the impact of all scenarios worsens in periods of financial distress. We have also found that large and medium sized banks are most vulnerable to liquidity shocks, mainly to massive deposit withdrawals.

  3. On strategic default and liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Tambakis, Demosthenes N

    2002-01-01

    How does the uncertain provision of external finance affect investment projects' default probability and liquidity risk? In this paper, I study the strategic interaction between many creditors and a single borrower in the context of a two-period investment project requiring external credit. Loans mature in one period but the project requires two periods to complete. The key working assumptions are that creditors are risk-averse and that any uncertainty is common knowledge: information about ...

  4. The Future Regulatory Challenges of Liquidity Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Petr Teply

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and...

  5. A consensus view on liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acharya, V.; Krishnamurthy, A.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk - which was at the heart of the September 2008 financial meltdown and explains regulatory concerns about a Greek default today - remains an open issue in financial regulatory reform. This column presents a consensus view of several leading academics on what more needs to be done to

  6. Liquidity and credit risk in the emerging financial markets

    OpenAIRE

    Amir Saadaoui, Younes Boujelbene

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between liquidity, liquidity risk and credit risk in emerging sovereign bonds after the subprime crisis period. In our study, we concentrate in the effect of liquidity and credit risk in the problem of liquidity and in the emerging bond market. The presence of control variables, asymmetric information, amount outstanding, coupon, age and interest rate, assist to more explain this relationship. To explain the role of liquidity and credit risk in the p...

  7. Risk of thyroid cancer among Chernobyl liquidators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Kesminiene, Ausrele; Tenet, Vanessa; Cardis, Elisabeth; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Chekin, Sergei; Malakhova, Irina V.; Polyakov, Semion; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Gavrilin, Yuri; Golovanov, Ivan; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Maceika, Evaldas; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: While the increased risk of thyroid cancer is well demonstrated in people exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated areas around the Chernobyl power plant, following the accident which took place on 26 April 1986, the effect of exposure on adults remains unclear. A collaborative case-control study of thyroid cancer was set-up, nested within cohorts of Belarus, Russian and Baltic countries liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, to evaluate the radiation-induced risk of this disease among liquidators, and to assess the roles of screening and of radiation exposures in the observed increased thyroid cancer incidence among liquidators. The study population consisted of the cohorts of approximately 66,000 Belarus, 65,000 Russian and 15,000 Baltic countries liquidators who took part in the clean-up activities on the reactor site and in the 30-km zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 1987. The liquidators were mainly exposed to external radiation, although substantial dose to the thyroid from iodine isotopes may have been received by liquidators who worked in May-June 1986 and by those who resided in the most contaminated territories of Belarus. Information was collected on study subjects by use of a standardized questionnaire that was administrated during a face-to-face interview with the study subject and/or a proxy (a relative or a colleague). The interview included questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and on potential risk and confounding factors for thyroid cancer. A method of analytical dose reconstruction, entitled RADRUE (Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation) was developed within the study and applied to estimate individual doses to the thyroid from external radiation and related uncertainties for each subject. Approaches to derive individual thyroid dose estimates from inhaled and

  8. The effect of information quality on liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Tee Yong

    2011-01-01

    I investigate whether information quality affects the cost of equity capital through liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is the sensitivity of stock returns to unexpected changes in market liquidity; recent asset pricing literature has emphasized the importance of this systematic risk. I find that higher information quality is associated with lower liquidity risk and that the reduction in cost of capital due to this association is economically significant. I also find that the negative association...

  9. Liquidity and Credit Risk in Fixed Income Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Vonhoff, Volker

    2011-01-01

    1 Introduction 2 The Term Structure of Liquidity Premia in the U.S. Treasury Market 3 Liquidity Premia in the Market for German Bunds and STRIPS 4 Liquidity and Credit Risk Premia in the Pfandbrief Market

  10. Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds

    OpenAIRE

    Foran, Jason; O'Sullivan, Niall

    2014-01-01

    We examine the role of liquidity risk, both as a stock characteristic as well as systematic liquidity risk, in UK mutual fund performance for the first time. Using four alternative measures of stock liquidity we extract principal components across stocks in order to construct systematic or market liquidity factors. We find that on average UK mutual funds are tilted towards liquid stocks (except for small stock funds as might be expected) but that, counter-intuitively, liquidity as a stock cha...

  11. Risk of hematological malignancies among Chernobyl liquidators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesminiene, Ausrele; Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Malakhova, Irina V.; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Anspaugh, Lynn R.; Bouville, André; Chekin, Sergei; Chumak, Vadim V.; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Gapanovich, Vladimir; Golovanov, Ivan; Hubert, Phillip; Illichev, Sergei V.; Khait, Svetlana E.; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Maceika, Evaldas; Maksyoutov, Marat; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.; Polyakov, Semion; Shchukina, Natalia; Tenet, Vanessa; Tserakhovich, Tatyana I.; Tsykalo, Aleksandr; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Cardis, Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    A case-control study of hematological malignancies was conducted among Chernobyl liquidators (accident recovery workers) from Belarus, Russia and Baltic countries in order to assess the effect of low-to-medium dose protracted radiation exposures on the relative risk of these diseases. The study was nested within cohorts of liquidators who had worked in 1986–87 around the Chernobyl plant. 117 cases (69 leukemia, 34 non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and 14 other malignancies of lymphoid and hematopoietic tissue) and 481 matched controls were included in the study. Individual dose to the bone marrow and uncertainties were estimated for each subject. The main analyses were restricted to 70 cases (40 leukemia, 20 NHL and 10 other) and their 287 matched controls with reliable information on work in the Chernobyl area. Most subjects received very low doses (median 13 mGy). For all diagnoses combined, a significantly elevated OR was seen at doses of 200 mGy and above. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) per 100 mGy was 0.60 (90% confidence interval (CI): −0.02, 2.35). The corresponding estimate for leukemia excluding chronic lymphoid leukemia (CLL) was 0.50 (90%CI −0.38, 5.7). It is slightly higher than, but statistically compatible with, those estimated from a-bomb survivors and recent low dose-rate studies. Although sensitivity analyses showed generally similar results, we cannot rule out the possibility that biases and uncertainties could have led to over or underestimation of the risk in this study. PMID:19138033

  12. The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in Islamic banking industry of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Nikomaram

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An integrated risk management is a process, which enables banks to measure and manage all risks, simultaneously. The recent turbulent chaos on banking industry has increase the relative importance of risk management, more than before. This paper investigates the relationship between credit risk and liquidity risk among Iranian banks. The proposed study includes all private and governmental banks as population over the period 2005-2012. The results Pearson correlation has disclosed a positive and meaningful relationship between credit and liquidity risks. Bank size also impacts on two mentioned risk factors but we there seems to be no relationship between financial chaos and type of ownership with risk factors.

  13. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  14. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  15. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  16. Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bareikaitė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

  17. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  18. Uncertain Portfolio Selection with Background Risk and Liquidity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Zhai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses an uncertain portfolio selection problem with consideration of background risk and asset liquidity. In addition, the transaction costs are also considered. The security returns, background asset return, and asset liquidity are estimated by experienced experts instead of historical data. Regarding them as uncertain variables, a mean-risk model with background risk, liquidity, and transaction costs is proposed for portfolio selection and the crisp forms of the model are provided when security returns obey different uncertainty distributions. Moreover, for better understanding of the impact of background risk and liquidity on portfolio selection, some important theorems are proved. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the modeling idea.

  19. Financing Structure and Liquidity Risk: Lesson from Malaysian Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul-Rahman Aisyah

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between financing structure and bank liquidity risk. We compare the findings between Islamic and conventional banks for the case of Malaysia. We adopt four measures to represent financing structure; namely 1 real estate financing, 2 financing concentration, 3 stability of short-term financing structure and 4 stability of medium-term financing structure. Two BASEL III liquidity risk measures are tested; namely, liquidity coverage ratio (LCR and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR to measure short- and long-term liquidity risk, respectively. Based on panel data regression comprising 27 conventional and 17 Islamic banks from 1994 to 2014, our findings show that real estate financing and stability of short-term financing structure for Islamic banks are positively related to both liquidity risk measures. This implies that an increasing number of real estate financing and a stable short-term financing structure may increase Islamic banks’ short- and long-term liquidity risks. However, although real estate financing does not affect conventional banks’ liquidity risks, a stable short-term financing structure and increasing financing concentration can positively influence bank long-term liquidity risk. Our findings shed light crucial policy implications for regulatory bodies and market players in the context of liquidity risk management framework as well as the need to develop a separate framework between conventional and Islamic banking institutions.

  20. Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

    2016-01-01

    We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

  1. Rollover risk, liquidity, and macro-prudential regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ahnert, Toni

    2014-01-01

    I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex-ante and are subject to fire sales ex-post. I demonstrate that precautionary liquidity restores multiple equilibria in a global rollover game. An intermediate liquidity level supports both the usual run equilibrium and an efficient equilibrium. I provide a uniqueness refinement to characterize the privately optimal liquidity choice. Because of fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitute...

  2. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  3. The regulatory treatment of liquidity risk in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann Jacobs

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The Basel accord describes the regulatory capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk. The accord aims to provide guidelines to level the playing field for all internationally active banks and to protect consumers against these risks. Despite the growing significance to bank solvency of liquidity risk, it is omitted from the new accord2. Banks are not required to measure and manage this risk yet they are often considerably exposed to the threat of severely diminished liquidity. This omission from the accord could have dire consequences for banks and the economy in which they operate: liquidity crises can occur without warning and spread quickly to other parts of the financial system. This article critically explores current practices in South Africa and proposes guidelines for effective liquidity risk regulation.

  4. Liquidity risk and profitability: An assessment of Nigerian banks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Development and Management Review ... The paper examines liquidity risk and profitability from the Nigerian banking sector perspective. ... financial system, which in turn would assist financial institutions to evaluate ...

  5. Determinants of Liquidity Risk in Indonesian Islamic and Conventional Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raditya Sukmana

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to examine the causes of the liquidity risk  in Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia using panel data regression method. The study found the significant and positive relation of ROA and NPF with the liquidity risk, whereas the negative and significant relation of CAR with the liquidity risk in Indonesian Conventional Banks. Meanwhile in Islamic banks, CAR result significantly positive effect on liquidity risk, while ROA shows negative and significant result. Possible explanation for this is that, given the huge profit by the conventional banks, it has more chance to allocate it as liquidity reserve as well as increasing the facilities (improvement on technology. When the NPL is high, conventional banks will increase the liquid assets as a buffer. Unlike that of conventional banks, the Islamic banks in Indonesia might allocate capital as liquidity reserves and might allocate ROA in fixed assets or financing or technology. The result confirm that the role of capital and bank’s performance in indeed important to the banking liquidityDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i2.2871

  6. Management of Liquidity Risk Using Foreign Exchange Swap Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivica Prga

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Croatian banks, like the other world banks, are exposed to liquidity risk. This is very significant question to them, particularly in this complex and crisis time. Therefore, the Croatian banks pay much attention to the management of liquidity. In these attempts, the banks use various derivative financial instruments of which the foreign exchange swap contracts are particularly remarkable.

  7. Essays on bank liquidity : contributions to the measurement of liquidity risk and to the management of bank liquidity production

    OpenAIRE

    Soula , Jean-Loup

    2017-01-01

    Bank liquidity risk reflects the function of banks to create liquidity. Banks are fragile, exposed to the possibility of runs from short-term creditors. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of bank liquidity risk. The second chapter proposes a measure of bank fragility based on the value of the assets held by a bank. Results confirm, in an original way, the fragile nature of banks. However, bank liquidity creation benefits to the economy. The third chapter analyses the capa...

  8. The liquidity management of institutional investors and the pricing of liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xing, Ran

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation studies how mutual funds and hedge funds manage their liquidity and reduce trading costs, and the pricing of liquidity level and liquidity risk in financial markets. Chapter 1 documents the trading behavior of actively managed equity mutual funds from the perspective of their

  9. Egalitarian Risk Sharing under Liquidity Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Boonen, T.

    2014-01-01

    Undertaking joint projects in practice involves a lot of uncertainty, especially when it comes to the final costs. This paper addresses the problem of sharing realized costs by the participants, subject to their indvidual liquidity constraints. If all cost levels can be accounted for, and it the

  10. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

    2002-01-01

    The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

  11. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  12. The regulatory treatment of liquidity risk in South Africa / Johann R.G. Jacobs

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Johann Renier Gabriel

    2008-01-01

    South Africa will be implementing Basel II on 1 January 2008. Basel II provides regulatory capital requirements for credit risk, market risk and operational risk. The purpose of capital requirements is to level the playing field for all internationally active banks and to protect consumers against these risks. Although there is an obvious threat of liquidity risk and it is important to correctly measure and manage liquidity risk, it is almost glaringly omitted from Basel II. The result of...

  13. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  14. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  15. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LIQUIDITY RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costea Ciprian-Dan

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The credit institutions management faces nowadays new and important challenges, of which the most important is the central role the liquidity risk management takes in the overall banking management complexity. This shows that liquidity risk in at the top of attention in the modern banking management, all the other banking risks being subsequent to this one. International regulations and settlers come to sustain the rising importance of liquidity risk in modern credit institution management.

  16. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  17. Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk among Chernobyl liquidators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, Ausrele; Evrard, Anne-Sophie; Tenet, Vanessa; Elisabeth, Cardis; Ivanov, Viktor K.; Chekin, Sergei; Khait, Svetlana E.; Maksyoutov, Marat; Shchukina, Natalia; Malakhova, Irina V.; Polyakov, Semion; Tserakhovich, Tatyana I.; Kurtinaitis, Juozas; Stengrevics, Aivars; Tekkel, Mare; Anspaugh, Lynn R.; Chumak, Vadim V.; Gapanovich, Vladimir; Golovanov, Ivan; Krjuchkov, Viktor P.; Tukov, Aleksandr R.; Hubert, Phillip; Illichev, Sergei V.; Maceika, Evaldas; Mirkhaidarov, Anatoly K.; Tsykalo, Aleksandr

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Chernobyl liquidators were workers involved in the clean-up of contaminated areas around the Chernobyl power plant following the accident on 26 April 1986. These workers form a potentially important population for evaluation of the effects of protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. A collaborative case-control study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) was set-up, nested within cohorts of Belarus, Russian and Baltic countries liquidators. The objective was to evaluate the radiation-induced risk of these diseases in this population and to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiogenic cancer in the low to medium (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consisted of approximately 66,000 Belarus, 65,000 Russian and 15,000 Baltic countries liquidators who took part in the clean-up activities between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 1987. In Belarus and Russia, liquidators are followed through the Chernobyl Registries and must undergo regular health check-ups, while in the Baltic countries their migration, vital and cancer status are assessed through population, death and cancer registries. The case ascertainment period ranged from 1990 to 2000 with minor differences among the countries. Information on study subjects was obtained through a face-to-face interview with the study subject and/or a proxy (a relative or a colleague), using a standardized questionnaire on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and on potential risk and confounding factors for leukaemia. A method of analytical dose reconstruction, entitled RADRUE (Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation), was developed within the study, validated and applied to estimate individual dose to the bone marrow and related uncertainties for each subject. 117 cases (69 leukaemia, 34 NHL and 14 other malignancies of lymphoid and haematopoietic tissue) and 481 matched controls were

  18. 75 FR 13656 - Interagency Policy Statement on Funding and Liquidity Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-22

    ... Interagency Policy Statement on Funding and Liquidity Risk Management AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the... policy statement summarizes the principles of sound liquidity risk management that the agencies have.... Ray Diggs, Group Leader: Balance Sheet Management, Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-5670...

  19. Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.A.G. Driessen (Joost); R. Xing (Rang)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRecent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment

  20. Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.

    Recent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment opportunity set. We

  1. The simple analytics of systemic liquidity risk regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2011-01-01

    How to regulate systemic risk? This column presents a new CEPR discussion paper assessing the performance of Pigouvian taxes and quantity-based regulations in containing the social costs of high-risk banking. It finds that, depending on how banks differ, the socially efficient solution may be

  2. Derivative pricing with liquidity risk : Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

    2011-01-01

    We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of

  3. Bank liquidity risk management: A South African survey to determine future change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Claassen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2008 the global financial system and, more particularly, the world banking system suffered a financial crisis worse than any earlier crises. The financial crunch brought to light that liquidity risk management in banks poses a problem, and that the world’s financial institutions will have to change their current practices as it relates to this risk. Apart from the importance of liquidity and the risk that it may cause, the integrated nature of all risks made banks more aware of the fact that none of these risks can be managed in isolation. For various reasons, South African banks were not as exposed to the problems experienced in the global context. However, SA banks may have learned new lessons from the crisis and may plan to change the way they manage liquidity risk in particular, in the future. In order to determine how SA banks perceive liquidity management and liquidity risk, a survey of all SA banks was carried out. The majority of respondents indicated that the financial crisis reminded them of the importance of liquidity risk management in the South African banking system as well as the global banking system. The majority of banks rate all the liquidity risk management tools as extremely important and rate corporate governance, strategy, policy and risk tolerance, liquidity risk measurement and intra-day liquidity as their number one priority. Basel III is generally perceived as being effective, but 30% of respondents perceived it as neither effective nor ineffective, because South African banks already have similar measures in place

  4. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  5. Risk comparison of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Dong

    1997-01-01

    The risk of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing is estimated and compared. The conclusions obtained are that risk difference from these strategies is very small and high level liquid waste can be reduced to middle and low level waste, if the decontamination factor for 99 Tc is large enough, which is the largest risk contributor in the high level radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing. It is also shown that the risk of high level radioactive waste could be reduced by the technical strategy of combining partitioning and transmutation

  6. Liquid Pipeline Operator's Control Room Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    The purpose of this guide is to document methodologies, tools, procedures, guidance, and instructions that have been developed to provide liquid pipeline operators with an efficient and effective means of managing the human factors risks in their con...

  7. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  8. Migration, Risk and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Halliday

    2005-01-01

    This article utilizes panel data from El Salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy. I show that adverse agricultural conditions in El Salvador increase both migration to the United States and remittances sent back to El Salvador. I show that, in the absence of any agricultural shocks, the probability that a household sent members to the United States would have decreased on average by 24.26%. I also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced...

  9. Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

    2008-01-01

    We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

  10. The Nature and Assessment of Systemic Risk in Terms of Liquidity of the Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavreniuk Vladyslav V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the nature of systemic risk as a threat to the financial stability of the banking system and develop analytical tools to assess its impact on the banking system in terms of its liquidity. To solve the tasks assigned, there used general scientific and specific methods, such as: logical and dialectical method, mathematical and graphical one. Based on the generalization, analysis and comparison of different interpretations, there clarified the concept of «systemic risk» as a risk generated by financial institutions or individual sectors through the implementation of the mechanism of risk transmission, achieving significant scale of distribution and adversely affecting the stability of the financial system and the real sector of economy. There identified key aspects of systemic risk: a systemic risk is not a sum of all individual risks of financial institutions; b spreads through the channels of interconnectedness between financial institutions; c is a result of accumulated structural imbalances; d affects the stability of the financial/banking system, public confidence and the real sector of economy. Analytical tools for estimation of the bank’s contribution to the systemic liquidity risk on the basis of which it is determined that the first place in terms of the effect on the aggregate systemic risk of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system is occupied by banks of Group I, the second place — by Privatbank, the third, fourth, fifth places — by banks in Group II — Oschadbank, Ukreximbank. It is found that it is systemically important state-owned banks that have a significant impact on systemic liquidity risk. It is determined that the probability of default of a leading systemically important bank could result in considerable cumulative losses for the entire banking system and real economy. The prospects of further research are the development of tools for systemic risk assessment with respect to

  11. Measurement and modelling of liquidity risk under the Basel III rules

    OpenAIRE

    Turkuner, Ercan

    2016-01-01

    In compliance with Basel III rules this study aims to create a model capable of generating a balance sheet. In the light of several hypotheses and general data about Turkish Banking System the model generates a balance sheet and, hence Basel III liquidity ratios could be set their threshold values. Besides, with the sensitivity analysis possible impacts of balance sheet structure on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio which promotes the short-term resilience of the liquidity risk profiles of banks h...

  12. Risk assessment and quality improvement of liquid waste management in Taiwan University chemical laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Chao-Chung; Chen, Ming-Shu

    2018-01-01

    The policy of establishing new universities across Taiwan has led to an increase in the number of universities, and many schools have constructed new laboratories to meet students' academic needs. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of laboratory accidents from the liquid waste in universities. Therefore, how to build a safety system for laboratory liquid waste disposal has become an important issue in the environmental protection, safety, and hygiene of all universities. This study identifies the risk factors of liquid waste disposal and presents an agenda for practices to laboratory managers. An expert questionnaire is adopted to probe into the risk priority procedures of liquid waste disposal; then, the fuzzy theory-based FMEA method and the traditional FMEA method are employed to analyze and improve the procedures for liquid waste disposal. According to the research results, the fuzzy FMEA method is the most effective, and the top 10 potential disabling factors are prioritized for improvement according to the risk priority number (RNP), including "Unclear classification", "Gathering liquid waste without a funnel or a drain pan", "Lack of a clearance and transport contract", "Liquid waste spill during delivery", "Spill over", "Decentralized storage", "Calculating weight in the wrong way", "Compatibility between the container material and the liquid waste", "Lack of dumping and disposal tools", and "Lack of a clear labels for liquid waste containers". After tracking improvements, the overall improvement rate rose to 60.2%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-07-01

    Results are summarized of the risk assessments of shipping PuO 2 powder and liquid Pu nitrate by truck and rail in the U.S. In the analysis method used, the system is described, potential release sequences are identified and evaluated (fault tree used), and the system risk is assessed. It is concluded that: there is little difference in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk for liquid shipment; the vermiculite loss is somewhat less important in rail shipment; and the response of the L-10 container to crush is more important in rail transport

  14. The Impact of the Term Auction Facility on the Liquidity Risk Premium and Unsecured Interbank Spreads

    OpenAIRE

    Syrstad, Olav

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility (TAF) in alleviating the liquidity shortage in USD and reducing the spread between the 3-month Libor rate and the expected policy rate. I construct a proxy for the 3-month liquidity risk premium based on data from the FX forward market which enables me to (i) decompose the Libor spread into a liquidity premium and a credit premium, and (ii) test the effectiveness of the TAF in reducing the liquidity premi...

  15. Environmental risk prediction and emergency plan for liquid ammonia leakage fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Zhanfei; Lian Guoxi; Zhang Yuntao; Sun Juan; Du Juan

    2014-01-01

    Taking liquid ammonia storage in a uranium production process as an example, a multi-puff Gassian model was used to predict and analyze the environmental risk under the scenario of the maximum credible accident as well as the most unfavorable weather conditions. According to the results of prediction, the suggestions for safety evacuation and evacuation way were made, thus providing theoretical basis and technical guideline for uranium mine making risk management and contingency plan. (authors)

  16. Liquidity and Counterparty Risks Tradeoff in Money Market Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leon Rincon, C.E.; Sarmiento, M.

    2016-01-01

    We examine how liquidity is exchanged in different types of Colombian money market networks (i.e. secured, unsecured, and central bank’s repo networks). Our examination first measures and analyzes the centralization of money market networks. Afterwards, based on a simple network optimization problem

  17. The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Kwamie Dunbar

    2008-01-01

    Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

  18. Analysis And Comments On The Consultative Document: International Framework For Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards And Monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Jacques Prefontaine; Jean Desrochers; Lise Godbout

    2010-01-01

    The market turmoil that began in mid-2007 re-emphasized the importance of liquidity to the functioning of financial markets and the banking sector. In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a consultative document entitled: “International Framework for Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards and Monitoring”. Interested parties were invited to provide written comments by April 16th 2010. Given our interest in prom...

  19. Bank Risk Taking and Liquidity Creation Following Regulatory Interventions and Capital Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

    2011-01-01

    During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

  20. Bank risk taking and liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

    2011-01-01

    During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

  1. Empirical Essays on the Stock Returns, Risk Management, and Liquidity Creation of Banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y. Xu (Ying)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis consists of three studies that respectively investigate the stock returns, risk management, and liquidity creation of banks. Chapter 2 focuses on the cross-section of bank stock returns and found that pricing factors such as leverage and beta, shown to be irrelevant to

  2. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  3. The banking system of liquidity risk management in commercial banks in Kosovo for 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Berisha

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial system in general and banking system in particular in Kosovo, is one of the most stable sectors, even though the Kosovo Economy is not in any enviable position and a stable financial system which would have an impact on greater economic growth. The focus of this research will be in the structure and organization of the financial system in Kosovo with particular emphasis on Kosovo's banking system for 2015. In this research we are focused on the Commercial Banks operating in the framework of the banking sector in Kosovo, what is their capital, how many banks have local- and how many have foreign capital, by whom are licensed and supervised, how is the loans potential of commercial banks in Kosovo, how much and how was the variation of interest rates on loans and deposits for 2015 and their comparison with the previous year, what is capital sufficiency and how many commercial banks do have liquidity in Kosovo? Kosovo banking sector exposure to risk will also have a special attention where it is known that there are several types of financial risk and they are: crediting risk, liquidity risk, market risk, operational risk, etc. Our interest in this research will be focused on liquidity risk and the analysis about the management of each bank including some specific regulative frameworks such as: framework of the Basel Committee known as Basel I, Basel II and more recently Basel III, which have strict rules and which change from time to time depending on financial flows or potential crises.

  4. Systematic risk and liquidity : an empirical study comparing Norwegian equity certificates before and after the regulation in 2009

    OpenAIRE

    Hatlevik, Håkon; Einvik, Christian

    2014-01-01

    In 2009, the Norwegian savings banks industry was subject to a regulation change, which resulted in a modification of the instrument issued by these banks. Thus, in this empirical study we compare the systematic risk and liquidity of equity certificates issued by Norwegian savings banks before and after the regulation change. We go about estimating systematic risk and liquidity using regression analysis. In order to estimate systematic risk we use the empirical model of the CAPM often referre...

  5. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  6. 78 FR 71817 - Liquidity Coverage Ratio: Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards, and Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-29

    ... senior representatives of bank supervisory authorities and central banks from Argentina, Australia..., 2012). B. Background The recent financial crisis demonstrated significant weaknesses in the liquidity... conditions and the declining availability of liquidity during the financial crisis illustrated both the speed...

  7. Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas W. Diamond; Raghuram G. Rajan

    2001-01-01

    Both investors and borrowers are concerned about liquidity. Investors desire liquidity because they are uncertain about when they will want to eliminate their holding of a financial asset. Borrowers are concerned about liquidity because they are uncertain about their ability to continue to attract or retain funding. Because borrowers typically cannot repay investors on demand, investors will require a premium or significant control rights when they lend to borrowers directly, as compensation ...

  8. Liquid hydrocarbons from coal beds – risk factor for the underground work environment - Case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomescu Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Liquid hydrocarbons from the coal bed and surrounding rocks, besides the stored gases, methane, carbon dioxide, carbon oxide, generate the increase of the risk factor from the occupational health and safety point of view. If for reducing the gas concentrations level and the methane emissions in order to increase the safety in exploitation exist well-known solutions and methods, the oxidation or self-oxidation of the hydrocarbons from the coal bed generate a series of compounds, reaction products over maximum admitted concentrations which give birth to a toxic atmosphere and which is hazardous for workers, at the same time inducing an error in noting the occurrence of a spontaneous combustion phenomena, a major risk for the workers and for the mineral resource. This paper represents a case study performed in one underground mine unit from Jiu Valley and presents the analysis for underground environment factors monitoring and for solutions for diminishing the OHS risk factors.

  9. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to advanced liquid metal reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, W.P.; Temme, M.I.

    1987-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) has been active in the development and application of probabilistic risk assessment methods within its liquid metal breeder reactor development program for the past eleven years. These methods have been applied to comparative risk evaluations, the selection of design features for reactor concepts, the selection and emphasis of research and development programs, and regulatory discussions. The application of probabilistic methods to reactors which are in the conceptual design stage presents unique data base, modeling, and timing challenges, and excellent opportunities to improve the final design. We provide here the background and insights on the experience which the US DOE liquid metal breeder reactor program has had in its application of probabilistic methods to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant project, the Conceptual Design State of the Large Development Plant, and updates on this design. Plans for future applications of probabilistic risk assessment methods are also discussed. The US DOE is embarking on an innovative design program for liquid metal reactors. (author)

  10. Development of a risk-based inservice inspection program for a liquid metal reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

    1996-01-01

    The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. EBR-II is liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor which operated for thirty years before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the liquid-metal reactor design, e.g., demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low pressure primary coolant and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. Many of the systems cannot be inspected due to inaccessibility of the components. However, application of a risk-based approach provided the basis for reducing or eliminating inspections in some areas that would otherwise be required. Development and implementation of the risk-based ISI program was interrupted by the DOE-mandated shutdown of EBR-II, so the potential benefits of this approach in terms of reduced O and M costs have yet to be realized. Through the development of this program, however it is clear that there is potential for substantial cost-savings while improving the risk-profile of the facility through this approach

  11. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  12. Informational Capacity of the Financial Statements of Brazilian Banks: An Analysis from the Perspective of Liquidity Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orleans Silva Martins

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the financial statements of Brazilian banks, from the perspective of liquidity risk by exploring whether the Statements of Cash Flows and Notes to these companies meet the requirements concerning the dissemination of liquidity risk demands by IFRS 7 and the principles of the Basel Committee. Additionally, we investigated whether the coefficients of box cover these companies, calculated from the DFC, show some respect to compliance with those requirements. For that, was raised a theoretical framework about liquidity and liquidity risk, and the role of DFC and Notes before the disclosure of information relating to liquidity. Accordingly, an exploratory study was conducted with the 28 companies that comprise the Banks segment of the BM&F Bovespa, through its financial statements for the year 2009. The main results indicate a low capacity of these informative statements about the situation and liquidity risk, given that only 60.71% of the requirements contained in the standards were met. Still, we conclude that the mere fact that it has good cash coverage ratios is not a necessary condition to be among the companies that meet the disclosure requirements of the situation and liquidity risk, or vice versa. Thus, even when companies have good liquidity indicators, the information required by the IASB and the BCBS has not been disclosed in its financial statements.

  13. Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

    1997-11-01

    The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

  14. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  15. Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis method developed to assess the risk in the transportation of radioactive materials and demonstrates its application by summarizing the results of risk assessments of the shipment of plutonium dioxide powder and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail in the United States. In the risk assessment, postulated release modes (series of events that could result in a release of radioactive material) are identified using the fault tree analysis method. Two categories of events that could contribute to a release during transportation are considered: accidents and substandard packaging conditions. The likelihood of basic events in these categories are determined from general accident experience, radioactive material shipping experience, engineering analysis, etc. Using the laws of combining probabilities, the likelihood of radioactive material release is then evaluated. Since accidents vary greatly in severity, the releases from these postulated events also vary in magnitude from the no release condition up through release of the entire package contents. The bases for the release quantities assigned to the postulated accidents sequences are discussed. The consequences of these postulated releases are evaluated based on the amount of plutonium estimated to be released to the environs, the probable weather conditions at the time of the accident, and population density downwind from the accident scene. The likelihood and consequence of postulated releases are coupled and expressed as a risk spectra. (author)

  16. The adoption of switchgrass and miscanthus by farmers: Impact of liquidity constraints and risk preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocqueho, G.; Jacquet, F.

    2010-01-01

    Lignocellulosic biomass is expected to become a key feedstock for renewable energy production. However, the potential supply strongly depends on farmers' willingness to grow the new perennial energy crops. Many economic assessments have been led at the farm level, all based on the standard net present value approach. This paper looks into the effect of farmers' liquidity constraints and risk preferences on switchgrass and miscanthus adoption by farmers. We study the problem of the land allocation between a traditional cropping system and an innovative one in a static framework, using four intertemporal choice models. We find that, in central France agronomic and economic conditions, switchgrass and miscanthus result to be less profitable in terms of annualised net margin than the usual rape/wheat/barley rotation. Nevertheless, they can be highly competitive as diversification crops when appropriate contracts are offered to farmers, despite the additional liquidity they require.

  17. Risk-Based Radioactive Liquid Effluent Monitoring Requirements at the U. S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannik, G.T.

    2001-01-01

    For Department of Energy (DOE) facilities, clear regulatory guidance exists for structuring radiological air emissions monitoring programs. However, there are no parallel regulations for radiological liquid effluent monitoring programs. In order to bridge this gap and to technically justify liquid effluent monitoring decisions at DOE's Savannah River Site, a graded, risk-basked approach has been established to determine the monitoring and sampling criteria to be applied at each liquid discharge point

  18. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

    2017-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

  19. A Coupled System of Integrodifferential Equations Arising in Liquidity Risk Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Huyen; Tankov, Peter

    2009-01-01

    We study the mathematical aspects of the portfolio/consumption choice problem in a market model with liquidity risk introduced in (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear). In this model, the investor can trade and observe stock prices only at exogenous Poisson arrival times. He may also consume continuously from his cash holdings, and his goal is to maximize his expected utility from consumption. This is a mixed discrete/continuous time stochastic control problem, nonstandard in the literature. We show how the dynamic programming principle leads to a coupled system of Integro-Differential Equations (IDE), and we prove an analytic characterization of this control problem by adapting the concept of viscosity solutions. This coupled system of IDE may be numerically solved by a decoupling algorithm, and this is the topic of a companion paper (Pham and Tankov, Math. Finance, 2006, to appear)

  20. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

    2015-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

  1. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  2. Reexamining the empirical relation between loan risk and collateral:the roles of collateral liquidity and types

    OpenAIRE

    Berger, Allen N.; Frame, W. Scott; Ioannidou, Vasso

    2016-01-01

    This paper offers a possible explanation for the conflicting results in the literature concerning the empirical relation between collateral and loan risk. We posit that differences in collateral characteristics, such as liquidity, may be associated with the empirical dominance of different risk-collateral relations implied by economic theory. Using credit registry data and a novel identification strategy to control for borrower and lender selection effects allows us to differentiate between t...

  3. Use of nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blinov, N.N.; Guslistyj, V.P.; Misyurev, A.V.; Novitskaya, N.N.; Snigireva, G.P.

    1993-01-01

    Attempt of using of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect the risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects was described. 14 hematologic, biochemical and biophysical blood serum parameters of the group of liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident impact as well as the group of donors free of any radiation dose (controlled group) were taken as the diagnostic parameters. Modification of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition based on the assessment calculations were used. The patients were divided into risk group at the truth ∼ 80%

  4. Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

  5. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

    1996-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM's Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable

  7. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  8. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  9. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  10. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  11. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  12. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  13. Bank and sovereign debt risk

    OpenAIRE

    Darracq Paries, Matthieu; Faia, Ester; Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego

    2013-01-01

    Euro area data show a positive connection between sovereign and bank risk, which increases with banks' and sovereign long run fragility. We build a macro model with banks subject to incentive problems and liquidity risk (in the form of liquidity based banks' runs) which provides a link between endogenous bank capital and macro and policy risk. Our banks also invest in risky government bonds used as capital buffer to self-insure against liquidity risk. The model can replicate the positive conn...

  14. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  15. Funding Liquidity Risk and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

    OpenAIRE

    Cho-Hoi Hui; Hans Genberg; Tsz-Kin Chung

    2009-01-01

    Significant deviations from covered interest parity were observed during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This paper finds that before the failure of Lehman Brothers the market-wide funding liquidity risk was the main determinant of these deviations in terms of the premiums on swap-implied US dollar interest rates for the euro, British pound, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar and Swiss Franc. This suggests that the deviations can be explained by the existence and nature of li...

  16. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  17. Analysis of The Influence of Liquidity, Credit and Operational Risk, in Indonesian Islamic Bank’s Financing for The Period 2007-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ousmane Diallo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of credit, liquidity and operational risks in six Indonesian’s islamic banking financing products namely mudharabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh, in order to try to discover whether or not Indonesian islamic banking is based on the “risk-sharing” system. This paper relies on a fixed effect model test based on the panel data analysis method, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2013. The research is an exploratory and descriptive study of all the Indonesian islamic banks that were operating in 2013. The results of this study show that the Islamic banking system in Indonesia truly has banking products based on “risk-sharing.” We found out that credit, operational and liquidity risks as a whole, have significant influence on mudarabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is a correlation between the credit risk and mudarabah based financing, and no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharaka, murabahah, ijarah, istishna and qardh based financing. There is also correlation between the operational risk and mudarabah and murabahah based financing, and no causal relationship between the operational risk and musharaka, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is correlation between the liquidity risk and istishna based financing, and no causal relationship between the liquidity risk and musharaka, mudarabah, murabahah, ijarah and qardh based financing. A major implication of this study is the fact that there is no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharakah based financing, which is the mode of financing where the islamic bank shares the risk with its clients, but there is an influence of credit risk toward mudarabah mode financing, a financing mode where the Islamic bank bears all the risk. These findings can lead us to conclude that the Indonesian Islamic banking sector is based on the “risk

  18. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  20. In pursuit of zero risk for LMR [liquid metal reactor] accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waltar, A.E.; Armstrong, G.R.; Martin, F.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.

    1986-01-01

    LMR programs are moving towards facility designs that are inherently safe. This movement is resulting in extremely low probabilities for entering the regime of severe accidents. When these probabilities are added to the respective consequences, the resulting risk is also seen to be moving toward lower and lower values. The preliminary risk estimates being achieved by the US LMR Advanced Concepts Programs are well within US NRC guidelines and to some may be seen as approaching zero. This paper presents some aspects and results of the work being performed that supports this trend

  1. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

  2. Risk determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The issue gives a survey of the legal, theological, statistical and health aspects of risk determination. It includes the opinions of physicians, epidemiologists, mathematicians, toxicologists, biologists, theologists and physicists who explain and illustrate the term of risk from their perspective. (orig./DG) [de

  3. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magne, L.

    1999-01-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  4. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  5. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenson, M.

    1989-01-01

    The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

  6. Risk theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidli, Hanspeter

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

  7. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  8. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  9. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  10. Technological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

  11. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  12. Technological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

  13. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  14. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  15. Engineering risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

    1991-01-01

    The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

  16. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  17. Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

    OpenAIRE

    Michel Rochette

    2002-01-01

    In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

  18. Liquidity in the foreign exchange market : Measurement, commonality, and risk premiums

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mancini, Loriano; Ranaldo, Angelo; Wrampelmeyer, Jan

    2013-01-01

    We provide the first systematic study of liquidity in the foreign exchange market. We find significant variation in liquidity across exchange rates, substantial illiquidity costs, and strong commonality in liquidity across currencies and with equity and bond markets. Analyzing the impact of

  19. Liquidity Risk, Speculative Trade, and the Optimal Latency of Financial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Fricke, Daniel; Gerig, Austin

    2014-01-01

    Garbade and Silber (1979) demonstrate that an asset will be liquid if it has (1) low price volatility and (2) a large number of public investors who trade it. Although these results match nicely with common notions of liquidity, one key element is missing: liquidity also depends on (3) an asset s correlation with other securities. For example, if an illiquid asset is highly correlated with a liquid asset, then speculators will naturally step in and make it liquid . In this paper, we update Ga...

  20. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... in paragraph (b) of this section as follows: (1) Risk Classification A if the location indicator is... in the program according to the following indicators of risk: (1) The location indicator is— (i) High... is— (i) High risk if the line is at least 18 inches in nominal diameter; (ii) Medium risk if the line...

  1. Calculation of risk-based detection limits for radionuclides in the liquid effluents from Korean nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Jae Hak

    2017-01-01

    In order to review if present detection limits of radionuclides in liquid effluent from nuclear power plants are effective enough to warrant compliance with regulatory discharge limits, a risk-based approach is developed to derive a new detection limit for each radionuclide based on radiological criteria. Equations and adjustment factors are also proposed to discriminate the validity of the detection limits for multiple radionuclides in the liquid effluent with or without consideration of the nuclide composition. From case studies to three nuclear power plants in Korea with actual operation data from 2006 to 2015, the present detection limits have turned out to be effective for Hanul Unit 1 but may not be sensitive enough for Kori Unit 1 (8 out of 14 radionuclides) and Wolsong Unit 1 (9 out of 42 radionuclides). However, it is shown that the present detection limits for the latter two nuclear power plants can be justified, if credit is given to the radionuclide composition. Otherwise, consideration should be given to adjustment of the present detection limits. The risk-based approach of this study can be used to determine the validity of established detection limits of a specific nuclear power plant. (author)

  2. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowsky, Wolf R.; Kiel Univ.

    2009-01-01

    The study on risk communication identifies the deficiencies concerning empirical and theoretical knowledge on objective radiation hazards of the acting personnel (managers, politicians, jurists, etc.) in administrations, governmental agencies, and business management. This is especially problematic with respect to emergency planning and estimations concerning the public behavior. The incident/accident information in Germany is discussed based on the legislative regulations revealing the controversial perception between industry, legislative and public interest. Further topics include the meandering of the modern safety semantics and the public opinion concerning catastrophic risk.

  3. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  4. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  5. Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

  6. Policy Measures to Alleviate Foreign Currency Liquidity Shortages under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Fujiki

    2010-01-01

    During the recent global financial crisis, some central banks introduced two innovative cross-border operations to deal with the problems of foreign currency liquidity shortages: domestic liquidity operations using cross-border collaterals and operations for supplying foreign currency based on standing swap lines among central banks. We show theoretically that central banks improve the efficiency of equilibrium under foreign currency liquidity shortages by those two innovative temporary polic...

  7. [Risk factors associated with bacterial growth in derivative systems from cerebrospinal liquid in pediatric patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jesús Vargas-Lares, José; Andrade-Aguilera, Angélica Rocío; Díaz-Peña, Rafael; Barrera de León, Juan Carlos

    2015-01-01

    To determine risk factors associated with bacterial growth in systems derived from cerebrospinal fluid in pediatric patients. Case and controls study from January to December 2012, in patients aged <16 years who were carriers of hydrocephalus and who required placement or replacement of derivative system. Cases were considered as children with cultures with bacterial growth and controls with negative bacterial growth. Inferential statistics with Chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U tests. Association of risk with odds ratio. We reviewed 746 registries, cases n=99 (13%) and controls n=647 (87%). Masculine gender 58 (57%) vs. feminine gender 297 (46%) (p=0.530). Age of cases: median, five months and controls, one year (p=0.02). Median weight, 7 vs. 10 kg (p=0.634). Surgical interventions: median n=2 (range, 1-8) vs. n=1 (range, 1-7). Infection rate, 13.2%. Main etiology ductal stenosis, n=29 (29%) vs. n=50 (23%) (p=0.530). Non-communicating, n=50 (51%) vs. 396 (61%) (p=0.456). Predominant microorganisms: enterobacteria, pseudomonas, and enterococcus. Non-use of iodized dressing OR=2.6 (range, 1.8-4.3), use of connector OR=6.8 (range, 1.9-24.0), System replacement OR=2.0 (range, 1.3-3.1), assistant without surgical facemask OR=9.7 (range, 2.3-42.0). Being a breastfeeding infant, of low weight, non-application of iodized dressing, use of connector, previous derivation, and lack of adherence to aseptic technique were all factors associated with ependymitis.

  8. Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Perceived risk is a function of information, knowledge, values, and perception. This exercise is designed to illustrate that in many situations there is no correct answer, only best-alternative choices. The exercise has five parts in which students work in groups of five. (LZ)

  9. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  10. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Risk Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Boutang , Jérôme; De Lara , Michel

    2016-01-01

    In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about potential hazards, from environmental to health impacts. The main purpose of this article is to suggest that risk could be considered as one of the major dimensions of choice for a wide range of concerns and markets, alongside aspiration/satisfaction, and tackled efficiently by mobilizing the recent findings of cognitive...

  12. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulkers, G.

    1988-01-01

    This file includes data on risks insured by the nuclear insurance pool in Belgium and on the Chernobyl accident covering injury, economic damage and compensation for the latter. Also included are the texts of the IAEA Conventions on Early Notification and on Assistance in Case of a Nuclear Accident as well as that of a Convention on long-distance transfrontier atmospheric pollution signed in Geneva [fr

  13. Complex risk analysis for loss of electric power in liquid metal nuclear reactor by system dynamics (SD) method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, Tae Ho [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

    2012-07-15

    The power stabilization of the nuclear power plants (NPPs) is investigated in the aspect of the liquid metal coolant. The quantification of the risk analysis is performed by the system dynamics (SD) method which is processed by the feedback and accumulation complex algorithms. The Vensim software package is used for the simulations, which is supported by the Monte-Carlo method. There are 2 kinds of considerations as the economic and safety properties. The result shows the stability of the operations when the power can be decided. This shows the higher efficiency of the reactor. The failure frequency is 16/60 = 27%. In the event of Power Stabilized, the failure event is in the quite lower frequency rate. The commercial use of the reactor is important in the operations. (orig.)

  14. Bank risk, bailouts and ambiguity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijskens, R.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    The theoretical analysis in the second part investigates the effect of liquidity assistance and bailouts on bank risk taking and liquidity choice. Furthermore, it explores the possibilities for central banks to create ambiguity about liquidity assistance, thereby influencing bank choices. The

  15. Risks of tobacco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secondhand smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... tobacco that are known to cause cancer. HEALTH RISKS OF SMOKING OR USING SMOKELESS TOBACCO Knowing the ...

  16. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  17. ASPECTS CONCERNING THE DETERMINATION OF BANKRUPTCY RISK BY SOLVENCY AND LIQUIDITY RATIOS IN THE COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Hada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents issues related to determining the bankruptcy risk for 64 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.The purpose of this paper is to determine the percentage of companies falling within the normal range. In the introduction, we set the goal, the research methodology, and the novelty value of this work. Hereinafter, we presented different views of risk concepts, bankruptcy, solvency and liquidity. After that, based on theoretical presentations, a case study was conducted to determine the solvency and liquidity ratios. In the end, on the basis of the above considerations, the conclusions were established and some proposals were listed.

  18. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  19. Risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1989-01-01

    Conflicts on technical issues frequently involve disagreements between the public and the technologists. This paper summarizes the major characteristics of three groups of technologists and four groups of the public which lead to many of the disagreements. To advance the mores of making decisions involving complex science or technology, technologists should develop an understanding of what information is needed for decisions, of the need for two-way communication with the public, and to become responsible for the accuracy and honesty of risk communication messages

  20. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  1. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  2. Proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carchon, R.

    1998-09-01

    The report gives an overview of different aspects related to safeguards of fissile materials. Existing treaties including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Tlatelolco and the Rarotonga Treaties are discussed. An overview of safeguards systems for the control of fissile materials as well as the role of various authorities is given. An overall overview of proliferation risks, the physical protection of fissile materials and the trade in fissile materials is given. Finally, the status in problem countries and de facto nuclear weapon states is discussed

  3. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  4. 伊斯兰银行业流动性风险管理探析%Liquidity Risk Management of Islamic Banking

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋玉颖

    2014-01-01

    Liquidity risk management is the focus of the current China’s financial institutions risk management con-cerns.Contract characteristics and business philosophy make its liquidity risk management more complicated.The reason why Islamic Banks were not been affected during the global financial crisis while keeping a fast growth speed is mainly due to the particularity of the Islamic Banks liquidity risk management.The essence of Islamic Bank is the characteristics of Is-lam;Islamic Banks liquidity risk management is the embodiment of the Islamic ethics and cultural value.Islamic Banks liquidity risk management has both unique advantage and also faces many challenges.%流动性风险管理是当前我国金融机构风险管理关注的焦点问题。在伊斯兰教法的约束下,伊斯兰银行的合约特点和经营理念使其流动性风险管理更加复杂。伊斯兰银行在全球金融危机中所受到冲击较小,没有发生流动性危机并保持较快增长速度的主要原因在于伊斯兰银行流动性风险管理的特殊性。伊斯兰教背景是伊斯兰银行的本质特点,伊斯兰银行的流动性风险管理也是伊斯兰道德伦理和文化价值的体现。伊斯兰银行流动性风险管理既有独特优势也面临诸多挑战。

  5. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodricks, J.V.

    1992-01-01

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  6. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  7. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  8. Radiation risks and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansweyer, C.J.M.

    1981-01-01

    The differences in acceptance of risks of different nature (industrial, in the home, on the road, use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, coffee or other food stuffs) by the public are compared on the basis of life expectancy values of different categories of people. The safety of radiologic work for both personnel and patients is considered in connection with the basic principles underlying the ICRP recommendations. A computation of the effective body dose equivalent for a mean medical X-ray examination and a nuclear in vivo examination is given. (Auth.)

  9. Biofilm Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu

    2016-01-01

    This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various...... surfaces in food processing. Biofilms of common foodborne pathogens are reviewed. The issue of persistent and nonpersistent microbial contamination in food processing is also discussed. It has been shown that biofilms can be difficult to remove and can thus cause severe disinfection and cleaning problems...... in food factories. In the prevention of biofilm formation microbial control in process lines should both limit the number of microbes on surfaces and reduce microbial activity in the process. Thus the hygienic design of process equipment and process lines is important in improving the process hygiene...

  10. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nathwani, J.S.

    1993-01-01

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. Does radiation risk exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passchier, W.

    1996-01-01

    Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

  13. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  14. Risk from environmental chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

    1982-01-01

    The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

  15. Screening mammography. A risk versus risk decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritenour, E.R.; Hendee, W.R.

    1989-01-01

    The potential risk of a radiologic procedure often is compared with the potential benefit of the procedure. While risk vs. benefit analysis has been useful as a step toward increased communication and understanding among radiologists, referring physicians, and the general public, it has the disadvantage that risk and benefit are fundamentally different quantities. Hence, their juxtaposition for purposes of comparison presents contextual difficulties. In this article, the concept is presented of comparing the risk of doing a procedure with the risk of choosing not to do the procedure. An example of risk vs. risk analysis of screening mammography for women over the age of 50 is given, with the conclusion that the risk of having yearly mammograms is less than 1/10 the risk of early death caused by failure to diagnose breast cancer by x-ray mammography. This approach to risk analysis would yield interesting data for examinations that are part of more complicated diagnostic pathways.19 references

  16. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  17. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  18. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  19. Enterprise risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

  20. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  1. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  2. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  3. Downside Variance Risk Premium

    OpenAIRE

    Feunou, Bruno; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Okou, Cedric

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of the variance risk premium, and that the skewness risk premium is a priced factor with significant prediction power for aggregate excess returns. Our empirical investigation highlights the positive and s...

  4. Use of liquid nitrogen during storage in a cell and tissue bank: contamination risk and effect on the detectability of potential viral contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirabet, Vicente; Alvarez, Manuel; Solves, Pilar; Ocete, Dolores; Gimeno, Concepción

    2012-04-01

    Cryopreservation is widely used for banking cells and tissues intended for transplantation. Liquid nitrogen provides a very stable ultra-low temperature environment. Thus, it is used for longterm storage. Unlike the exhaustive microbiological monitoring of the environmental conditions during tissue processing, storage is not usually considered as a critical point of potential contamination risk in professional standards for cell and tissue banking. We have analysed the presence of microbial agents inside our nitrogen tanks. We have mainly detected environmental and water-borne bacteria and fungi. In addition, we have studied the effect of liquid nitrogen exposure on virus detectability. Only differences for hepatitis C virus RNA were observed. Measures for contamination risk reduction during storage must be mandatory in cell and tissue banking. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  6. Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-04-01

    This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation

  7. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  8. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  9. Risk-based prioritization for the interim remediation of inactive low-level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

    1992-09-01

    The paper presents a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low-level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs), for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were pumped out when the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include the radionuclides 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 233 U and the chemicals carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethane, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead, and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank, (2) location of the tanks, and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents. Leaking characteristics of LLLW USTs will aid in establishing the potential for the release of contaminants to environmental media. In this study, only the liquid phase was assumed to be released to the environment. Scoring criteria for release potential of LLLW USTs was determined after consideration of the magnitude of any known leaks and the tank type for those that are not known to leak

  10. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  11. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  12. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  13. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  14. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  15. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  16. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  17. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  18. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  19. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  20. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  1. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  2. Consumption of added sugars from liquid but not solid sources predicts impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance among youth at risk of obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiawei; Light, Kelly; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Paradis, Gilles; Gray-Donald, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about longitudinal associations between added sugar consumption (solid and liquid sources) and glucose-insulin homeostasis among youth. Caucasian children (8-10 y) with at least one obese biological parent were recruited in the QUébec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort (n = 630) and followed-up 2 y later (n = 564). Added sugars were assessed by 3 24-h dietary recalls at baseline. Two-year changes were examined in multivariate linear regression models, adjusting for baseline level, age, sex, Tanner stage, energy intake, fat mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and physical activity (7 d accelerometer). Added sugar intake in either liquid or solid sources was not related to changes in adiposity measures (fat mass, body mass index, or waist circumference). However, a higher consumption (10 g/d) of added sugars from liquid sources was associated with 0.04 mmol/L higher fasting glucose, 2.3 pmol/L higher fasting insulin, 0.1 unit higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and 0.4 unit lower Matsuda-insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda-ISI) in all participants (P added sugars from solid sources. Overweight/obese children at baseline had greater increases in adiposity indicators, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR and decreases in Matsuda-ISI during those 2 y than normal-weight children. Consumption of added sugars from liquid or solid sources was not associated with changes in adiposity, but liquid added sugars were a risk factor for the development of impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance over 2 y among youth at risk of obesity.

  3. Human health risk assessment of chloroxylenol in liquid hand soap and dishwashing soap used by consumers and health-care professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yost, Lisa J; Rodricks, Joseph D; Turnbull, Duncan; DeLeo, Paul C; Nash, J Frank; Quiñones-Rivera, Antonio; Carlson, Pete A

    2016-10-01

    A quantitative human risk assessment of chloroxylenol was conducted for liquid hand and dishwashing soap products used by consumers and health-care workers. The toxicological data for chloroxylenol indicate lack of genotoxicity, no evidence of carcinogenicity, and minimal systemic toxicity. No observed adverse effect levels (NOAEL) were established from chronic toxicity studies, specifically a carcinogenicity study that found no cancer excess (18 mg/kg-day) and studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity (100 mg/kg-day). Exposure to chloroxylenol for adults and children was estimated for two types of rinse-off cleaning products, one liquid hand soap, and two dishwashing products. The identified NOAELs were used together with exposure estimates to derive margin of exposure (MOE) estimates for chloroxylenol (i.e., estimates of exposure over NOAELs). These estimates were designed with conservative assumptions and likely overestimate exposure and risk (i.e., highest frequency, 100% dermal penetration). The resulting MOEs ranged from 178 to over 100, 000, 000 indicating negligibly small potential for harm related to consumer or health-care worker exposure to chloroxylenol in liquid soaps used in dish washing and hand washing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Il sistema monetario internazionale negli anni settanta: regime dei tassi di cambio e creazione di liquidità. (Liquidity creation and risk in the international monetary system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. DINI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available L' articolo esamina il funzionamento del sistema finanziario attuale, segnalando la sua funzione più importante , vale a dire l'offerta di liquidità e il suo impatto sulla vasta gamma di variabili finanziarie internazionali. Liquidità e rischio sono concetti strettamente correlati. Come Keynes e Hicks hanno insegnato , una definizione significativa di liquidità non può essere data senza fare riferimento al rischio. L'autore fornisce alcune considerazioni per aiutare a far luce sulle azioni politiche che potrebbero essere necessarie per mitigare i problemi e le difficoltà connesse con l'attuale impostazione monetaria internazionale .The article looks at how the present financial system works, signalling out its most crucial function, namely the provision of liquidity and its impact on the broad spectrum of international financial variables. Liquidity and risk are closely interrelated concepts. As Keynes and Hicks taught, a meaningful definition of liquidity cannot be given without reference to risk itself. The author provides some considerations to help shed light on the policy actions that may be required to mitigate the problems and difficulties associated with the current international monetary setting. JEL: G15, F30, E42

  5. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  6. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  7. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  8. Risk management and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

  9. Man, technology and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks. (Translated from German, original report Juel-Spez--67).

  10. Catalog of risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L; Lee, I S [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Physics

    1979-06-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities.

  11. A catalog of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.; Lee, I.S.

    1979-01-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities. (author)

  12. Radiological risk curves for the liquid radioactive waste transfer from Angra 1 to Angra 2 nuclear power plants by a container tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, A.S.M.; Passos, E.M. dos; Duarte, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Eletrobras Termonuclear has a radiowaste management program focused on reducing the produced volumes, for which it has considered to transfer Angra 1 liquid radioactive waste by a container tank to be processed and packed in Angra 2. This paper presents a radiological risk study for providing the necessary technical foundations to obtain the license from the regulatory agency for implementing this transfer operation. Out of the 92 accident scenarios identified with the help of a preliminary hazard analysis, the greatest risk of fatal cancer for members of the public was equal to 6.9 x 10 -13 fatalities/yr, which refers to the accident scenario involving intrinsic failures of valves, hoses, flanges, seals, gaskets and instrumentation lines, while filling the container tank at Angra 1 filling station. This risk figure is about ten million times less than the one adopted by Eletronuclear for such a waste transfer. The highest frequency was also associated with this type of scenario, and its value was equal to 1.4 x 10 -6 yr -1 . This paper also presents and discusses the radiological risk curves for the three possible in-plant transfer routes, the Angra 1 filling station and Angra 2 discharging station and the overall risk curve in order to allow for a broader perspective of the results obtained. These risk curves display the accident scenarios frequencies against radiation doses by considering relevant in-plant and surroundings release paths. In these curves, the extreme scenarios mentioned earlier can be clearly identified in terms of occurrence frequencies and radiation doses. (author)

  13. Rethinking risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, H.F.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

  14. A background of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, R.F.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is reviewed under the headings: introduction (historical and general description of harm, hazards and risk and attempts to define them); expressions of risk (individual risk; fatal accident frequency rate; expressions of risk in terms of deaths suffered per unit of activity; loss of life expectancy; frequency vs consequence lines); comparability of risks. The examples include some references to radiation hazards and reactor accidents. (U.K.)

  15. Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (Uses) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Program, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus I that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less

  16. Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (USTs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Pregrain, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus 1 that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less

  17. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  18. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  19. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  20. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  1. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  2. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

  3. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  4. Preferences over Social Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Rutström, E. Elisabet

    2013-01-01

    that subjects systematically reveal different risk attitudes in a social setting with no prior knowledge about the risk preferences of others compared to when they solely bear the consequences of the decision. However, we also find that subjects are significantly more risk averse when they know the risk......We elicit individual preferences over social risk. We identify the extent to which these preferences are correlated with preferences over individual risk and the well-being of others. We examine these preferences in the context of laboratory experiments over small, anonymous groups, although...... the methodological issues extend to larger groups that form endogenously (e.g., families, committees, communities). Preferences over social risk can be closely approximated by individual risk attitudes when subjects have no information about the risk preferences of other group members. We find no evidence...

  5. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  6. Diversity in Risk Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Nur Probohudono

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the communication of the five major categories of risk (business, strategy, market and credit risk disclosure over the volatile 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC time period in key South East Asian countries’ manufacturing listed companies. This study is important as it contributes to the literature by providing insights into the voluntary risk disclosure practices using sample countries with different economic scenarios. Key findings are that business risk is the most disclosed category and strategy risk is the least disclosed. Business and credit risk disclosure consistently increase over the three year period, while operating, market and strategy risk disclosure increase in 2008, but then decrease slightly in 2009. Statistical analysis reveals that country of incorporation and size help predict risk disclosure levels. The overall low disclosure levels (26-29% highlight the potential for far higher communication of key risk factors.

  7. Risk, Resources and Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyng Jensen, Jesper; Ponsaing, Claus Due; Thrane, Sof

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we describe a basic mechanism by which risk events can induce indirect value losses to the risk owner: a value loss arising from a risk event interfering with activities that have no logical connection with the risk event other than that of having the same owner; a mechanism we...... to large risk events is to mitigate the consequences of the risk event through negotiating with the environment. If such negotiations fail, the subject will have no alternative but to let other activities and projects under direct control of the risk owner suffer. We end the article with conjectures....... The risk cost component presented in this article, whose existence has previously been argued in the risk literature, has been documented in a single factorial experiment with a unique simulation device named Risky Business. Through our experiments, we have shown that the first response of subjects exposed...

  8. Risk management overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGovern, S.

    1995-01-01

    Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

  9. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  10. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  11. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  12. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  13. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  14. Gender, risk and journalism

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Janet; Mosdell, Nicholas; Griffiths, James

    2016-01-01

    Are female journalists more at risk in covering conflict than their male colleagues? \\ud Beck states ‘risk is the anticipation of the catastrophe – so it is existent and non-existent’. Is the contention that female journalists are more at risk, knowledge, or a construction of knowledge? Are Editors and journalists who decide that women are more at risk merely anticipating a catastrophe? There is no certainty that women would be more at risk, but the fear that women are more at risk can preven...

  15. Cyber risk in banking

    OpenAIRE

    Linert, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The bachelor thesis deals with the cyber risk in banking industry. Its main goal is to stress the imporatance of cyber risk both verbally and numericaly and review the approach of banks to this risk. The first part of this thesis specifies what cyber risk is and how it fits among other operational risks, presents the common cyber-attacks and archetypes of cyber criminals, later it delves into the cyber risk in Czech Republic and at the end of this part it mentions the legislation that covers ...

  16. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  17. Risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.

    1999-01-01

    This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the

  18. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  19. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 195 - Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older Hazardous Liquid and Carbon Dioxide Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... pressure tested, based on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The first step is to determine the... test requirements depending on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The overall risk... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older...

  20. Risk management at university

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

    2013-01-01

    This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

  1. Technical risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    The report explains the possibilities and limits of risk analysis, risk assessment by the citizen, especially in hearings in the course of licensing procedures, and decisive causes why assessments on the part of the citizens may fail. (HP) [de

  2. Management of business risks

    OpenAIRE

    BAZARBAY A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

  3. Fuzzy risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

    2008-01-01

    A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

  4. Canadian nuclear risk experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamel, P.E.

    1982-05-01

    Risk assessment in the Canadian nuclear fuel cycle is a very important and complex subject. Many levels of government are involved in deciding the acceptable limits for the risks, taking into account the benefits for society [fr

  5. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  7. Risk and cognition

    CERN Document Server

    Faucher, Colette

    2015-01-01

    This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge  within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: ·     Influence of the culture in risk management, ·     Influence of the risk communication in risk management, ·     User-centred design to improve risk situation management, ·     Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, ·     Risk prevention in industrial activities.

  8. Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

    2014-01-01

    This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

  9. Risk evaluation of embedded, single-walled liquid low-level waste piping at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ESD Publication 4315

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-10-01

    Four categories of liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) systems are defined in the Federal Facility Agreement (FFA) for the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Categories A and B are new and fully compliant existing systems, respectively: Category C is singly contained and must be removed from service, and Category D is inactive. The FFA requires that secondary containment and leak detection be provided for all Category A and B piping in the LLLW System at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); however, as noted in the D2 revision of the secondary containment design demonstration report (DOE 1994), some sections of single-walled embedded piping in Category B underground vaults at three ORNL facilities do not meet this requirement. A risk evaluation was performed in order compare the potential radiation dose to a member of the public that could result from a postulated leak in the single-walled pipes with projected radiation exposure to the workers who would modify the piping to meet FFA requirements. The risk to human health from replacing segments of embedded, single-walled piping in the LLW system is higher than the risk of leaving the piping as it is

  10. Risk in International Business

    OpenAIRE

    Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

  11. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  12. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  13. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  14. Risks and perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.

    1987-01-01

    The article on the risks and perceptions of nuclear power was previously published in the Times Higher Education Supplement, May 1987. The public attitude towards risks associated with nuclear power, compared with other risks in everyday life, is examined. Results of psychological studies of the perceived risk of nuclear power are also discussed. The author argues that fear of nuclear catastrophe is not one which can be brushed aside by statistics or punditry. (UK)

  15. Communication about risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The conditions, difficulties and possibilities of communication on technological risks are detailed here. There is a description of the types and levels of argument on risks and the risk-concept itself, of the research field of risk communication, of the conceptional frame-work of the working-party, of the research programme and of the chances for a long-term prospect from the group. (DG) [de

  16. IT Risk register

    OpenAIRE

    Kohout, Karel

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...

  17. Nuclear benefits and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saunders, P

    1987-03-01

    The paper reviews the broader issues that affect nuclear power in a world energy context. The importance of nuclear power as an energy source is described, as well as the environmental effects of different energy sources. The risks associated with the nuclear industry are discussed with respect to: risks due to radiation exposure, risks to workers in the nuclear industry, and risks to the public due to discharges from nuclear installations. (U.K.).

  18. Perception of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1992-01-01

    Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs

  19. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  20. The dark and the bright side of liquidity risks: evidence from open-end real estate funds in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Fecht, Falko; Wedow, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We use a unique and comprehensive data set on open-end real estate funds in Germany to study a liquidity crisis that hit this industry between 2005 and 2006. Since this industry is comparably unregulated our data set permits us to contrast competing explanations of liquidity crisis. We find that fundamental factors matter for the liquidity outflow in normal times. During the crisis, however, they do not play a role. During the panic only strategic complementarities drive withdrawals. Furtherm...

  1. The exposure of microfinance institutions to financial risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gietzen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the exposure of microfinance institutions to liquidity-, interest rate and foreign exchange (FX risk. Using manually collected data from microfinance institutions’ financial reporting, I find that the microfinance sector faces minimal liquidity risk, high interest rate risk and a lower than commonly assumed exposure to FX risk. Linking risk exposure to institutional characteristics, the data shows that legal status and regional affiliation are correlated with risk exposure while regulatory quality is not. Results suggest that the development community may not expect large benefits from expanding the plethora of current measures taken to mitigate liquidity or FX risk.

  2. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... smoking and elevated blood sugar levels (diabetes mellitus). These risk ... These are risk charts, e.g. FRS, a non-laboratory-based risk calculation, and ... for hard cardiovascular end-points, such as coronary death, myocardial ...

  3. Business history and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Gourvish

    2003-01-01

    CARR, in association with the Centre for Business History, University of Leeds, held a successful workshop on 'Business History and Risk' on 20 February 2002. The workshop, which was sponsored by the ESRC, brought together business historians, economists, accountants and risk analysts to develop an interdisciplinary discussion on understandings of risk by employers, workers and governments in different historical settings.

  4. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  5. Readings in risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Glickman, Theodore S; Gough, Michael

    1990-01-01

    ... from Resources for the Future are distributed worldwide by The Johns Hopkins University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Readings in risk I Theodore S. Glickman and Michael Gough, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (alk. paper) 1. Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Health risk assessment....

  6. Contact Lens Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...

  7. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  8. Business risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosby, C.

    2015-01-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  9. Business risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  10. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  11. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  12. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  13. Synthetic risks, risk potency, and carcinogen regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscusi, W K; Hakes, J K

    1998-01-01

    This article analyzes a comprehensive sample of over 350 chemicals tested for carcinogenicity to assess the determinants of the probability of regulation. Controlling for differences in the risk potency and noncancer risks, synthetic chemicals have a significantly higher probability of regulation overall: this is due to the greater likelihood of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation. Measures of risk potency increase the probability of regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have a somewhat weaker positive effect on regulation by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and decrease the likelihood of regulation by the FDA. The overall regulatory pattern is one in which the FDA targets synthetic chemicals and chemicals that pose relatively minor cancer risk. The EPA particularly performed more sensibly than many critics have suggested.

  14. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  15. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  16. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  17. Individual Property Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Finke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

  18. Life without risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

  19. Agile risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Moran, Alan

    2014-01-01

    This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

  20. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  1. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

  2. Risk management in Takaful

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

  3. MASTERING SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borut Jereb

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risks in supply chains represent one of the major business issues today. Since every organizationstrives for success and uninterrupted operations, efficient supply chain risk management is crucial.During supply chain risk research at the Faculty of Logistics in Maribor (Slovenia some keyissues in the field were identified, the major being the lack of instruments which can make riskmanagement in an organization easier and more efficient. Consequently, a model which captures anddescribes risks in an organization and its supply chain was developed. It is in accordance with thegeneral risk management and supply chain security standards, the ISO 31000 and ISO 28000families. It also incorporates recent finding from the risk management field, especially from theviewpoint of segmenting of the public.The model described in this paper focuses on the risks itself by defining them by different keydimensions, so that risk management is simplified and can be undertaken in every supply chain andorganizations within them. Based on our mode and consequent practical research in actualorganizations, a freely accessible risk catalog has been assembled and published online from the risksthat have been identified so far. This catalog can serve as a checklist and a starting point in supplychain risk management in organizations. It also incorporates experts from the field into a community,in order to assemble an ever growing list of possible risks and to provide insight into the model andits value in practice.

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  5. Perception of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Hubert, Ph.

    1996-01-01

    Many factors are involved in the perception of a risk by individuals. Some are individual related (psychology, knowledge, experience), others describe the social environment (culture, ideology), others at end precise the nature of the risk. The word risk has various meanings and is understood differently by the three main categories involved in risk management, that is engineers, administrators and lay public. Several models which describe the perception phenomenon are presented. The dimensions affecting perception are listed. Based on public opinion poll data, a risk taxonomy is proposed, perceived nuclear risks are compared with other risks, and results are given concerning trust in the information diffused and the credibility of those in charge of nuclear activities. (author)

  6. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  7. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  8. Social amplification of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events

  9. Limit lines for risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

    1982-01-01

    Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

  10. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  11. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  12. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  13. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  14. Risk perception and risk communication: lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillif, L.; Sackur, J.

    1998-01-01

    Industry can master risks but it cannot master the representations people have of these risks. This is why distortions may occur, as the public perceives risks where they are not, or in a totally deformed way. To deal with this type of situation which is dangerous in the long run, both for society and industry, it is necessary to study in detail where and how the difference between real risks and perceived risks is introduced. It then becomes possible to determine what means of action are available to manage the representations and the perceptions of risks. We shall mention two rather different examples of type of direct contact with the industrial reality; in France, we have determined policy of visits of nuclear sites (more than 10 000 people visit Cogema- la Hague site yearly), mainly addressed to school children and people living in the vicinity of the site. During these visits there is of course no question of explaining the detailed operation of the facility or the risks it generates. The purpose is to make the representation of the nuclear industry just as familiar as the representation of another large-scale technology tool: trains, dams,. In a different manner, missions are organised by Cogema - B.N.F.L.- O.R.C. (Overseas reprocessing Committee) to de dramatize the transport of high level vitrified wastes from Europe to Japan. these missions travel through those countries the ship come close to. Here, again, although the target is more the relays of opinion, the effective presence of specialized transport ship is a crucial element in putting a halt to phantasmic representations, as they are born from the remoteness of the object. (N.C.)

  15. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  16. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  17. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  18. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  19. Optimizing risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindred, G.W.

    2000-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

  20. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, Herbert.

    1978-03-01

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  1. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  2. Risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

  3. Managing risk at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-01-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

  4. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  5. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  6. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  7. Nuclear safety research - risk and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossin, A.D.

    1982-01-01

    The nuclear power industry deals in many kinds of risks, complicated by political stress and communication problems. Power plant design must prepare for the unexpected attack, physical as well as psychological, but a zero-defects technology is not possible. The public has not been made sufficiently aware of the risk the US takes if there is not enough energy because nuclear power has been curtailed. Energy shortages could drive industry and jobs abroad, force the public to turn to government for a solution, drive the country to energy allocation, and cause a nuclear war. Policies that prevent closing the nuclear fuel cycle are ineffective in preventing proliferation and counterproductive to national needs

  8. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  11. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  12. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

  13. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  14. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  15. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  16. Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

    to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

  17. On risks and acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

  18. The risk game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes the act of defining and assessing risk as a game, in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for allowing the interested and affected parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk-management decisions

  19. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  20. [Comparison of screening performance between primary high-risk HPV screening and high-risk HPV screening plus liquid-based cytology cotesting in diagnosis of cervical precancerous or cancerous lesions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X L; Remila, Rezhake; Hu, S Y; Zhang, L; Xu, X Q; Chen, F; Pan, Q J; Zhang, X; Zhao, F H

    2018-05-06

    Objective: To evaluate and compare the screening performance of primary high-risk HPV(HR-HPV) screening and HR-HPV screening plus liquid-based cytology (LBC) cotesting in diagnosis of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions (CIN2+). Methods: We pooled 17 population-based cross-sectional studies which were conducted across China from 1999 to 2008. After obtaining informed consent, all women received liquid-based cytology(LBC)testing, HR-HPV DNA testing. Totally 28 777 women with complete LBC, HPV and biopsy results were included in the final analysis. Screening performance of primary HR-HPV DNA screening and HPV screening plus LBC co-testing in diagnosis of CIN2+ were calculated and compared among different age groups. Results: Among the whole population, the detection rates of primary HR-HPV screening and HR-HPV screening plus LBC co-testing are 3.05% (879 CIN2+) and 3.13%(900 CIN2+), respectively. The sensitivity were 96.4% and 98.7% (χ(2)=19.00, PHPV screening performed better than co-testing (AUC were 0.913 and 0.888; Z= 6.16, PHPV screening, co-testing showed significantly higher colposcopy referral rates (16.5% and 23.6%, respectively, χ(2)=132.00, PHPV screening in diagnosis of CIN2+, and was 12.5 (15.7%(288 cases) vs 1.3%(23 cases)) times as much as the detection rate of HR-HPV screening plus cytology contesting. Conclusion: Compared with primary HR-HPV screening, HR-HPV screening plus cytology co-testing does not show better results in the screening performance for CIN2+ detection, and the cost-effectiveness is not good enough, especially in younger age group.

  1. Assessing the Variability of Heavy Metal Concentrations in Liquid-Solid Two-Phase and Related Environmental Risks in the Weihe River of Shaanxi Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jinxi; Yang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Junlong; Long, Yongqing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Taifan

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the variability of heavy metals in river water and the hyporheic zone is crucial for pollution control and environmental management. The biotoxicities and potential ecological risks of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd) in a solid-liquid two-phase system were estimated using the Geo-accumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Assessment and Quality Standard Index methods in the Weihe River of Shaanxi Province, China. Water and sediment samples were collected from five study sites during spring, summer and winter, 2013. The dominant species in the streambed sediments were chironomids and flutter earthworm, whose bioturbation mainly ranged from 0 to 20 cm. The concentrations of heavy metals in surface water and pore water varied obviously in spring and summer. The degrees of concentration of Cu and Cd in spring and summer were higher than the U.S. water quality Criteria Maximum Concentrations. Furthermore, the biotoxicities of Pb and Zn demonstrated season-spatial variations. The concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd in spring and winter were significantly higher than those in summer, and the pollution levels also varied obviously in different layers of the sediments. Moreover, the pollution level of Cd was the most serious, as estimated by all three assessment methods. PMID:26193293

  2. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liabili...

  3. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Value of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vik, Marie Amdal

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

  6. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  7. Nuclear financial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1986-01-01

    This study examines the economy-wide financial risk associated with reactor accidents as a result of various regulatory response options that might be imposed after a serious accident, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria. The authors find that such risks may be two to three times greater than the plant-specific financial risk estimates that have previously been calculated by others (ie 500 million (1985) dollars per reactor year versus 5 to 50 million dollars). (author)

  8. Supply Cain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Les

    2011-01-01

    “The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

  9. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  10. High-Risk List

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    economy. The World Bank has said that “corruption creates an unfavorable business environment by undermining the operation efficiency of firms and... Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme,’” 11/27/2012. 64 Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, Unfinished Business : The Follow...HIGH RISK AREA 7: Oversight 51 HIGH-RISK AREA 8: Strategy and Planning 55 CONCLUSION HIGH RISK LIST I JANUARY 11, 2017 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  11. Supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

    2013-01-01

    Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

  12. Credit Risk Transfer and Crunches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigan, Duncan

    2010-01-01

    Rather than in terms of the inevitable demise of a destabilising process of speculation, this article explores the ‘credit crunch’ as a window on the fabrication, and measure of the proportions of a political shift driven by market actors and financial innovation. The Basel process reconceptualised...... banks as risk navigators and generated a competitive hierarchy within the global banking industry determined on a gauge of this capacity. This private regulatory regime promoted market inflation and rendered institutional liquidity and risk transfer definitive of market power. In turn, a ballooning...... credit derivatives market broke the limits of financial production and defined state actions in the face of crisis. A shift from a central concern with solvency to that of liquidity thinly masks a profound redistribution of power from the public to the private. By swapping private assets of uncertain...

  13. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  14. Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

  15. Air quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martin L

    2008-01-01

    Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.

  16. Risks of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanov, J.; Pop-Jordanova, N.

    1989-09-01

    The paper is devoted to comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources and their influence to public perception, social acceptability and decision-making. The technical heights of the risks, expressed in the number of fatalities of labor and public per unit energy output, from fossil, nuclear and renewable sources are analysed and compared. The complete energy cycle from mining to waste disposal, as well as the future trends, are taken into account. A comparison of the risks of different energy systems with the anticipated global and national energy shares by source is also presented. Furthermore, detailed studies of the non-technical dimensions of the energy risks are performed. Using a modified attitude-behaviour model, the cognitive structure underlying the positions towards different energy options is investigated. Estimating the diverse acting of the risk components, the consequent changes in the rank ordering of the energy sources are deduced. Finally, adding the psychological components nuclear reaches the highest place. In this respect, a unified multidimensional space for the representation of various technological risks is introduced. It affords a comparison of the risks not only by their technical height, but also by other characteristics (involuntary, fearfulness etc.). Finally, it was pointed out that in considering the risk characteristics and constraints, as well as the external fields, a system approach has to be used, taking into account the risks simultaneously with the benefits. 12 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  17. Facing reality minimizes risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    Companies that provide technology or project management involving a wise range of risks will increasingly find much more complex contractual relationships with their customers. This is due largely to the pressures exerted on those relationships by third parties. This paper explores the relationships between private contractors and their customers (frequently government agencies) and how risks affect those relationships. Perceptions of risk sometimes outweigh genuine risks, and the distinction between the two is often irrelevant. Media, site neighbors, adversaries, regulators, and national officials often tip the balance between reality and perception

  18. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  19. Motivation for risk sports

    OpenAIRE

    Hlava, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Title: Motivation for risk sports Objectives: The aim of our thesis is to find out primary and secondary motives of athletes for the operation of high-risk sports and coming back to it. We also want to find out what is the starter for doing risk sports. Other questions are why athletes keep doing it and how perceive the potential risk. Methods: In our study, we chose qualitative investigation method and semistructured interview with eight respondents. For the interview, we drew up a list of q...

  20. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Certification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva Fernandez, M.

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

  2. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  3. Risks in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    This chapter summarizes quantitative information on risks from a wide variety of sources and analyzes it in terms of life expectancy reduction (LER). The data indicate that the greatest common risk in terms of LER, next to remaining unmarried, is cigarette smoking. When all of the effects of energy production and use (e.g., burning coal, reactor accidents) are totalled, the resulting LER is only about 25 days. It is pointed out that the risks to the residents of the Harrisburg area from radiation caused by the Three Mile Island accident is hundreds of thousands of times smaller than their risk from being overweight

  4. Approaches to acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  5. Mortgage Default Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chauvet, Marcelle; Gabriel, Stuart; Lutz, Chandler

    2016-01-01

    We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage ...... delinquency indicators, and subprime credit default swaps. These results persist both in- and out-of-sample and at multiple data frequencies. Together, research findings suggest internet search queries yield valuable new insights into household mortgage default risk....

  6. Agricultural risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

    2005-01-01

    A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

  7. Managing power risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudd, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig

  8. General Concepts Regarding Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Ana-Maria Dinu

    2014-01-01

    Risk appetite is a very complex system, therefore one of the most important element of a company’s enterprise risk management (ERM) is the risk appetite defining. A proper risk management means making good choices towards the risks a company faces in order to achieve its objectives and measures to mitigate those risks, not to avoid them. Therefore, the moment risk appetite is understood and clearly defined can become a powerful tool both for managing the occurred risks and business performanc...

  9. Low Dose Risk, Decisions, and Risk Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The overall research objective was to establish new levels of information about how people, groups, and communities respond to low dose radiation exposure. This is basic research into the social psychology of individual, group, and community responses to radiation exposures. The results of this research are directed to improving risk communication and public participation in management of environmental problems resulting from low dose radiation

  10. Moral value, risk and risk tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1993-07-01

    In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated in two empirical studies. Earlier published data, based on home interviews, purporting to show that a majority of Swedes now would accept a local nuclear waste repository could not be replicated in a mail survey. Interviewer influence and implicit prompting were suggested as explanations of previous results, and a follow-up using implicit and explicit prompts showed that uncertain people were more likely to acquiesce in response to an implicit prompt. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favor in a local referendum) could not be well explained by a cost-benefit approach, neither by a risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60 per cent of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NIMBYs were, however, only in a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Cultural theory gave only a very small marginal level of explanation of perceived waste risk and acceptance. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal matters. Those who saw it as politically important also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms. 62 refs

  11. Are doctors risk takers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pikkel D

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dvora Pikkel,1 Yael Sara Pikkel Igal,2 Adi Sharabi-Nov,3,4 Joseph Pikkel2,51Risk Management and Patient Safety Unit, Assuta Medical Center, Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv, 2Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan University, 3Research Wing, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, 4Tel-Hai Academic College, Upper Galilee, 5Department of Ophthalmology, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, Israel Objective: Risk taking affects human behavior in general and decisions in medicine in particular. We used game theory to assess physicians' risk-taking tendencies. Methods: Physicians were recruited to the study by advertisement. It was explained that they would receive a sum of money for correct prediction of the flipping of a coin. They could try to sell their opportunity to flip the coin for an amount of money they determined. The sum offered by the participants was considered an indicator of risk taking. A demographic questionnaire assessed age, sex, seniority, and area of specialization of the participants. A multivariate analysis assessed associations between risk-taking behavior and, seniority, and specialization. Results: Sixty-two physicians participated, 36 males and 26 females, seniority 1–34 years. Of a possible range of 0–10, the mean score for risk taking was 5.5 – just slightly more than indifference. Negative correlations were found between risk taking and seniority, and between risk taking and age (β=–0.45, P<0.001 for both. Surgeons and anesthesiologists showed greater risk taking than did other physicians (β=0.69, P<0.05; and females less than males, though the latter correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Understanding the tendency of physicians to risk taking may elucidate their decision-making processes and contribute to understanding of causes of adverse events and to the education of physicians. Keywords: risk taking, game theory, seniority, surgeons, anesthesiologists

  12. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J.

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  13. Radiological risk comparison guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallinan, E.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Brown, L.F.; Yoder, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    An important aspect of DOE safety analyses is estimating potential accident risk. The estimates are used to: determine if additional controls are needed, identify Safety Class Items, and demonstrate adequate risk reduction. Thus, guidelines are needed to measure comparative risks. The Westinghouse M ampersand O Nuclear Facility Safety Committee and the Safety Envelope Working Group have developed radiological risk guidelines for comparing the risks from individual accident analyses. These guidelines were prepared under contract with the US Department of Energy. These guidelines are based on historical DOE guidelines and current requirements, and satisfy DOE and technical community proposals. for goals that demonstrate acceptable risk. The guidelines consist of a frequency versus consequence curve for credible accidents. Offsite and onsite guidelines are presented. The offsite risk acceptance guidelines are presented in Figure 1. The guidelines are nearly isorisk for anticipated events where impacts are chronic, and provide additional reduction for unlikely events where impacts may be acute and risk uncertainties may be significant. The guidelines are applied to individual release accident scenarios where a discrete frequency and consequence has been estimated. The guideline curves are not to be used for total risk assessments. Common cause events are taken into consideration only for an individual facility. Frequencies outside the guideline range are considered to be local site option (analyst judgement) as far as assessments of risk acceptance are concerned. If the curve is exceeded, then options include either a more detailed analysis or imposing additional preventive or mitigative features. Another presentation discusses implementation in detail. Additional work is needed to provide risk comparison guidelines for releases from multiple facilities and for toxic releases

  14. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  15. Performance and Risk: Empirical Evidence from Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS)

    OpenAIRE

    Nayan, Norma

    2017-01-01

    The paper aims to recognize the relationship between risk and profit in the company Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS). This company is one of the leading companies in oil and gas industry, therefore, knowing the risk taken by the company and their management and the impact on the profit to the shareholder. The main focus in this paper is to recognized risk especially in operational risk, liquidity risk and credit risk while the profit is indicate by using ROA, ROE, Profit Margin Ratio, D...

  16. Risk and Derivative Price

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuke Osaki

    2007-01-01

    We consider an asset market traded three types of assets: the risk–free asset, the market portfolio and derivatives written on the market portfolio return. We determine a sufficient condition to guarantee that noise risk monotonically changes their derivatives. The condition is that Arrow–Pratt absolute risk aversion is decreasing and convex.

  17. Risk Aversion and Emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

  18. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  19. [Prevention of psychosocial risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle, Édouard; Trichard-Salembier, Alexandra; Sobaszek, Annie

    2018-02-01

    The theme of psychosocial risks remains in the workplace. It is therefore essential that all members of a company are made aware of the terminology and specific prevention actions in this field. Distinguishing between the manifestations of these risks and their causes and consequences helps to improve prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Nanocosmetics: benefits and risks

    OpenAIRE

    Shokri, Javad

    2017-01-01

    Summary Various nanomaterials/nanoparticles (NPs) have been used for the development of cosmetic products - a field so-called nanocosmetic formulations. These advanced materials offer some benefits, while their utilization in the cosmetic formulations may be associated with some risks. The main aim of this editorial is to highlight the benefits and risks of the nanomaterials used in the cosmetic products.

  1. Perception of Product Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter provides several explanations for consumer risk perception. For frequently repeated behavior that is seemingly under their own control, consumers tend to be overly optimistic. This occurs in spite of the general tendency of consumers to be risk averse. Specific dimensions of different

  2. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

  3. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  4. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  5. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Social Discounting under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

  7. Reanalysis of Zion risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, C.K.; Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.; Tingle, A.; Chun, M.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the NUREG-1150 effort, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has undertaken a risk analysis of Zion Unit 1 adopting the methodology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining Program. Resulting of the preliminary version of that analysis are reported here. Completion plans for the Zion study are described also

  8. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  9. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  10. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  11. Environments at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, D.

    1989-01-01

    The book is a product of the Canadian story in environmental management. Since the late 1960s the Canadian governments have reflected the growing environmental conscience and legislated many environmental controls. It is shown what has been achieved worldwide in environmental assessment an risk prediction. The 12 chapters include working concepts and examples for assessments, reducing risk, and self-help. (DG)

  12. Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from highfrequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive.

  13. Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized

  14. Risks of Leveraged Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Di Cesare (Antonio)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractLeveraged investments have become a fundamental feature of modern economies. The new financial products allow people to take greater-than-usual exposures to risk factors. This thesis analyzes several different aspects of the risks involved by some frequently used leveraged products:

  15. Risk in social science

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinn, Jens; Taylor-Gooby, Peter

    2006-01-01

    ... for control. Advances in social science improve understanding of how people perceive and prioritise risks, broaden awareness of the bearing of a range of other issues (trust, experience during the life course, democratic expectations) on people's capacity to manage risks, and facilitate exploration of the ways in which people communicate abo...

  16. ORGANIZATIONAL RISK COMMUNICATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ris communication tools in organizations differs in several ways from many of tools and techniques developed for public meetings. The traditional view of risk communication seeks to manage the public outrage ssociated with site-based issues. Organizational risk communication seek...

  17. Mind Your Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ZIP 223KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 293KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ... ZIP 360KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 433KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ...

  18. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  19. Risk Management and Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovmand, David

    2014-01-01

    Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....

  20. Taming agricultural risks

    OpenAIRE

    Oppedahl, David B.

    2014-01-01

    On November 19, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference to explore the key risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them, in today’s volatile environment.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  2. High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

  3. Risks from radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The best estimate of risk to which everyone is exposed from natural radon in buildings is now obtained by extrapolation from observations on men exposed to radon in mines. The relationship between dose and effect derived by the US National Research Council implies that about 6% of the current life-time risk of developing the disease in the UK is attributable to radon, but for residents of some houses it will be much greater. This estimate is dependent on many assumptions, some of which are certainly wrong, and reliable estimates can be obtained only by direct observations on people living in different houses. It is possible that radon may also cause some risk of other cancers, notably leukaemia, but such risks, if real, are certainly small. Studies in progress should provide reliable estimates of all radon induced risks within a few years. (author)

  4. Insurance against nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dow, J.C.

    1976-01-01

    Virtually any type of nuclear risk is insurable in principle, providing, of course, that the necessary standards of safety and control are met. Some of the risks are of a relatively minor character and no more hazardous than a simple conventional risk. But insurers would not consider as a minor risk anything which involves the use of nuclear fuel or other nuclear materials which are in a critical state or capable of releasing dangerous levels of radioactivity. These would include nuclear reactors or, indeed, any type of assembly which can not be regarded as subcritical. Most insurers would also regard installations involved in the manufacturing, processing and enriching of nuclear fuel, and certainly those concerned with the reprocessing of irradiated fuel and plutonium extraction, as major risks. (HP) [de

  5. Risks in nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1982-01-01

    The German nuclear power plant risk assessment study has not contributed to a higher degree of acceptance of light-water reactors among the general public. One reason is the fact that its predictions are much too inaccurate, and the consequences from severe accidents, regardless of their possibly extremely small likelihood, speak for themselves. The work still to be done in Phase B of the risk analysis will only be useful, if the safety factors in risk assessments can be drastically increased. The results of the risk analysis cannot be used in legislation or the administration of justice, because they are too incomplete and inaccurate. Scientific findings in risk analysis show that new designs and new components complicate objective judgement of changes in reactor safety engineering considerably. Every change in the required precautionary safety measures must be carefully considered, and if need be tested under the appropriate conditions. (orig./HSCH) [de

  6. EMF and risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widemann, P.M.; Schuetz, H.

    1995-01-01

    There has lately been a greater responsivement in the media as well as the general public to the risk potential of high-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). If the discussion continues to gain momentum, this could have grave consequences for companies offering the products or services under attack. The working group Man, Environment, Technology (MUT) at Juelich Research Centre has examined the question of how EMF risks are valuated by the public. The study centered on the following questions: How are EMF risk potentials perceived by the public and what factors influence the public discussion? What future course might the discussion on risks take and what critical events and conditions deserve particular attention? The authors present and discuss the results of this first German study on product-inherent risks. (orig.) [de

  7. Risk capital allocation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Smilgins, Aleksandrs

    Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than...... the sum of the risks of the individual sub-units. The question is how to allocate the risk capital of the company among the subunits in a fair way. In this paper we propose to use the Lorenz set as an allocation method. We show that the Lorenz set is operational and coherent. Moreover, we propose a set...... of new axioms related directly to the problem of risk capital allocation and show that the Lorenz set satisfies these new axioms in contrast to other well-known coherent methods. Finally, we discuss how to deal with non-uniqueness of the Lorenz set....

  8. Fear, anger, and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, J S; Keltner, D

    2001-07-01

    Drawing on an appraisal-tendency framework (J. S. Lerner & D. Keltner, 2000), the authors predicted and found that fear and anger have opposite effects on risk perception. Whereas fearful people expressed pessimistic risk estimates and risk-averse choices, angry people expressed optimistic risk estimates and risk-seeking choices. These opposing patterns emerged for naturally occurring and experimentally induced fear and anger. Moreover, estimates of angry people more closely resembled those of happy people than those of fearful people. Consistent with predictions, appraisal tendencies accounted for these effects: Appraisals of certainty and control moderated and (in the case of control) mediated the emotion effects. As a complement to studies that link affective valence to judgment outcomes, the present studies highlight multiple benefits of studying specific emotions.

  9. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  10. WHO risk communication seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)

  11. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...

  12. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  13. LOW DOSE RISK, DECISIONS, and RISK COMMUNICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this project is to conduct basic research on how people receive, evaluate, and form positions on scientific information and its relationship to low-dose radiation exposure. There are three major areas of study in our research program. First is the development of theories, frameworks and concepts essential to guiding data collection and analysis. The second area is a program of experimental studies on risk perception, evaluation of science information, and the structure of individual positions regarding low-dose exposures. Third is the community-level studies to examine and record how the social conditions, under which science communications take place, influence the development of attitudes and opinions about: low-dose exposures, the available management options, control of radiation risks, and preferences for program and policy goals

  14. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballard, Richard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  15. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, RIchard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  16. Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Costin NIŢESCU

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

  17. Communication of Audit Risk to Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, C. Wayne; Thompson, James H.

    1986-01-01

    This article focuses on audit risk by examining it in terms of its components: inherent risk, control risk, and detection risk. Discusses applying audit risk, a definition of audit risk, and components of audit risk. (CT)

  18. Internal Audit and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

    2011-01-01

    Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

  19. Society's general exposure to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidstone, R.F.

    1981-10-01

    Canadian and world experience with accidents and disease is reviewed in order to identify risk information that might extend the societal perspective on health risk beyond daily concerns. The level of exposure to catastrophic risks is compared to that associated with commonly experienced risks. An examination of current and historical levels of Canadian mortality risk is included. The association between mortality risk and Canadian industrial activity is also examined. Some prospects for utilizing these risk benchmarks are then discussed

  20. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  1. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  2. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  3. The risks of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.; Herttrich, M.

    1987-01-01

    The book presents a complete survey of the methods and procedures applied for risk assessment, referring in particular to the field of nuclear engineering, but dealing also with risk assessment in the sector of the chemical industry and of the power industry, comparing the risks of various technologies for energy production. The material presented shows that a risk assessment study requires information and knowledge from a great variety of subject fields, evaluating and merging the information collected into a complete survey being the main task of risk assessment. It also becomes clear that despite the strong commitment to research in this field, there still remain unresolved problems and phenomena, so that risk assessment bears a certain degree of uncertainty. The results and the mutual connections are represented in words only, so that the reader can do without mathematical knowledge. Many studies and their results are presented, and their explanation in the overall framework allows insight into the connections and an evaluation of usefulness. The status report on risk assessment prepared in August 1984 by the GRS (Society for Reactor Safety) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, has been taken as a basis for this book which consists of many individual contributions. (orig./HP) With 45 figs [de

  4. Risk perception in planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, S K

    1987-01-01

    The general public's perception of the risks involved with hazardous industries is increasing, especially in countries that high environmental amenity characteristics. This increased public awareness of risk may be an important factor in the future of countries who produce a large quantity of petroleum and chemical products. However, existing decision-making processes for determining safety controls do not take sufficient account of the community perception of risk. Identification of perceived risk levels could contribute to the determination of safe land-use planning policies and practices. The objective of land-use planning for hazardous industries is to reduce the gap between the calculated or technical assessment of risk and the risk as perceived by the community. This also facilitates a balanced approach in the decision making process between meeting industry requirements and community concerns. The comprehensive analysis presented in this study, based on a questionnaire given to residents in each of the three study areas (Australia, Japan and Korea), focused on identifying and measuring the respondent's understanding of the risk posed by nearby hazardous industrial developments.

  5. Introduction: Learning about Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens O. Zinn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The special issue "Learning about Risk" draws on the launch conference of the ESRC "Social Contexts and Responses to Risk" network (SCARR held at 28th – 29th January 2005 in Canterbury. The SCARR network is an interdisciplinary network on risk which examines perceptions of and responses to risk in a range of areas, including sexual behaviour and partnering choices, the mass media, faith and ethnicity, pensions and financial planning, industrial pollution, crime, transport, energy policy and environmental hazards. The network's launch conference reflected the interdisciplinary character of risk research including a range of different methods and approaches to risk, directed at diverse objects of interest. The idea of the special issue is to link together this diversity and interdisciplinarity in risk research, and to encourage perspectives that look beyond the boundaries of single disciplines and methodological approaches. The papers in this publication demonstrate the value of insights from different disciplinary backgrounds in this area and point to the opportunities and challenges in the work that remains to be done in drawing these several perspectives more closely together. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601246

  6. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  7. Contralateral breast cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unnithan, Jaya; Macklis, Roger M.

    2001-01-01

    The use of breast-conserving treatment approaches for breast cancer has now become a standard option for early stage disease. Numerous randomized studies have shown medical equivalence when mastectomy is compared to lumpectomy followed by radiotherapy for the local management of this common problem. With an increased emphasis on patient involvement in the therapeutic decision making process, it is important to identify and quantify any unforeseen risks of the conservation approach. One concern that has been raised is the question of radiation- related contralateral breast cancer after breast radiotherapy. Although most studies do not show statistically significant evidence that patients treated with breast radiotherapy are at increased risk of developing contralateral breast cancer when compared to control groups treated with mastectomy alone, there are clear data showing the amount of scattered radiation absorbed by the contralateral breast during a routine course of breast radiotherapy is considerable (several Gy) and is therefore within the range where one might be concerned about radiogenic contralateral tumors. While radiation related risks of contralateral breast cancer appear to be small enough to be statistically insignificant for the majority of patients, there may exist a smaller subset which, for genetic or environmental reasons, is at special risk for scatter related second tumors. If such a group could be predicted, it would seem appropriate to offer either special counselling or special prevention procedures aimed at mitigating this second tumor risk. The use of genetic testing, detailed analysis of breast cancer family history, and the identification of patients who acquired their first breast cancer at a very early age may all be candidate screening procedures useful in identifying such at- risk groups. Since some risk mitigation strategies are convenient and easy to utilize, it makes sense to follow the classic 'ALARA' (as low as reasonably

  8. UPDATING UNDER RISK CONDITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA CECILIA ELENA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The foundation for future firm development is investment. Agents have a risk aversion requiring higher returns as the risks associated with the project will be greater. The investment decision determines the market firm's affirmation, increasing the market share, dominating the market. Making an investment at a certain point will determine certain cash flows throughout the life of the project, and a residual value can be obtained when it is taken out of service. The flows and payments for the investment project can be more easily tracked if we are proposing a constant update rate. We will be able to analyze, based on various factors, three techniques for determining the discount rate for investment projects: the opportunity cost, the risk-free rate, and a series of risk premiums, the weighted average cost of capital. People without financial training make value judgments for investment projects based on other market opportunities, comparing the returns that any investment offers to other pay options. An investor has a sum of money he wants to make - if he does not invest in a project, he will invest in another, that will bring him a certain amount of money, choosing the most advantageous project by comparison. All projects are characterized by identical risks, and the agents are considered indifferent to the risks. The answer given by financial theory and practice to the disadvantage of rates in the opportunity cost category is the discount rate calculated as a sum of the risk-free rate and a risk premium, defining the risk as a factor whose action may cause a possible decrease in cash of the available flows. Higher objectivity is presented by the opportunity cost update rates of update because it refers to known variables but cannot be perfectly matched to the performance of the investment process.

  9. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  10. Radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perisinakis, Kostas; Damilakis, John; Theocharopoulos, Nicholas; Grammatikakis, John; Gourtsoyiannis, Nicholas

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine ovarian dose, effective dose and associated radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography (HSG), and to provide data for the estimation of radiogenic risks related to HSG studies performed in any laboratory. The fluoroscopy time, number of radiographs taken and entrance surface dose were measured in a series of 78 consecutive patients undergoing HSG as part of their infertility work-up. Organ-dose values per radiograph and per minute of fluoroscopy were separately determined using an anthropomorphic phantom and thermoluminescence dosimetry. The radiogenic risk for deleterious effects on a possible future embryo and the radiogenic risk for cancer induction on the patient undergoing HSG were estimated. The average HSG procedure in our laboratory involves a mean fluoroscopic time of 0.3 min and a mean number of radiographs of 3.2. The dose to female gonads from an average HSG procedure was 2.7 mGy and the patient effective dose was 1.2 mSv. The risk for radiogenic anomalies in a future embryo of the woman undergoing an average HSG procedure and the risk for radiogenic fatal cancer induction in the exposed woman were estimated to be less than 10 -3 of the correspondent nominal risks. Radiation risks from a typical HSG are low, but they may be elevated if fluoroscopic and/or radiographic exposures are prolonged for any reason. Present data allow the estimation of radiogenic risks associated with HSG procedures performed in other laboratories with use of different equipment, screening time and number of radiographs taken. (orig.)

  11. Risk in pediatric anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Neil; Waterhouse, Peter

    2011-08-01

    Risk in pediatric anesthesia can be conveniently classified as minor or major. Major morbidity includes cardiac arrest, brain damage and death. Minor morbidity can be assessed by clinical audits with small patient samples. Major morbidity is rare. It is best assessed by very large clinical studies and by review of closed malpractice claims. Both minor and major morbidity occur most commonly in infants and children under three, especially those with severe co-morbidities. Knowledge of risk profiles in pediatric anesthesia is a starting point for the reduction of risk. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  13. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...

  14. PREVENTION OF COMPANY RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUCI U GHEORGHE

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A company’s manager has to create and maintain a healthy internal control system. An efficient internal control system implies the implementation in the company of risk management. Each company, but also each individual, who tries to attain certain objectives, establishes the activities which lead to the achievement of goals and, at the same time, tries to identify as many “threats” as possible, in order to take the necessary measures to eliminate them. Thus, even if one is not familiar with the concepts of risk and risk management, one acts, consciously or not, for that purpose.

  15. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  16. Social identities and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders; Jensen, Mette; Kaltoft, Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Expert-based environmental and health risk regulation is widely believed to suffer from a lack of public understanding and legitimacy. On controversial issues such as genetically modified organisms and food-related chemicals, a "lay-expert discrepancy" in the assessment of risks is clearly visible...... of social identities. On the basis of qualitative interviews with citizens and experts, respectively, we focus on the multiple ways in which identities come to be employed in actors' risk accounts. Empirically, we identify salient characteristics of "typical" imagined experts and lay-people, while arguing...

  17. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface......-product we obtain fast access to the baseline hazards (compared to survival::basehaz()) and predictions of survival probabilities, their confidence intervals and confidence bands. Confidence intervals and confidence bands are based on point-wise asymptotic expansions of the corresponding statistical...

  18. Some thoughts about risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennekens, J.H.

    1986-05-01

    The author discusses how the concept of risk is perceived differently by the scientist and the man in the street, and mentions the problems that this can sometimes pose for the regulator. He also gives examples of inconsistencies and contradictions in various areas of risk management. He concludes by noting that so-called accidents usually do not occur by chance, but that system or component failures are always due to some form of human error. The objective of risk management is to ensure, by a process of rigorous analysis, that both the probability and consequences of such failures are minimized

  19. Development of aquatic plant bioassays for rapid screening and interpretive risk assessments of metal mining liquid waste waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, H G [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Nyholm, N [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). Lab. of Environmental Science and Ecology; Huang, P M [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon (Canada). Saskatchewan Inst. of Pedology

    1996-12-31

    The use of non-photosynthetic organisms alone to describe environmental impact has been recognized by regulatory agencies, industry and academia as being totally inadequate both in Europe and North America. Lack of adequate testing methods for photosynthetic aquatic organisms has been recognized as a major impediment to the successful regulation and safe use of pesticides and waste water discharges and is of even more concern to the metal mining industry due to the non-biodegradable nature of its waste streams. This work shows that the chemical effluent limits set in the `Metal mining liquid effluent regulations and guidelines` provide variable protection of aquatic photosynthetic organisms and aquatic effects of the more toxic metals (e.g., copper, nickel, and zinc) may occur at levels that are one to two orders of magnitude lower than present limits. To establish adequate protection of receiving water bodies it may be necessary to establish site-specific criteria taking into consideration toxicity modifying factors of individual sites. If the establishment of such criteria is determined with a host of ecologically relevant organisms, it will be possible to design effective environmental protection at the least possible cost. (author). 17 refs., 2 tabs.

  20. Development of aquatic plant bioassays for rapid screening and interpretive risk assessments of metal mining liquid waste waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, H.G.; Nyholm, N.; Huang, P.M.

    1995-01-01

    The use of non-photosynthetic organisms alone to describe environmental impact has been recognized by regulatory agencies, industry and academia as being totally inadequate both in Europe and North America. Lack of adequate testing methods for photosynthetic aquatic organisms has been recognized as a major impediment to the successful regulation and safe use of pesticides and waste water discharges and is of even more concern to the metal mining industry due to the non-biodegradable nature of its waste streams. This work shows that the chemical effluent limits set in the 'Metal mining liquid effluent regulations and guidelines' provide variable protection of aquatic photosynthetic organisms and aquatic effects of the more toxic metals (e.g., copper, nickel, and zinc) may occur at levels that are one to two orders of magnitude lower than present limits. To establish adequate protection of receiving water bodies it may be necessary to establish site-specific criteria taking into consideration toxicity modifying factors of individual sites. If the establishment of such criteria is determined with a host of ecologically relevant organisms, it will be possible to design effective environmental protection at the least possible cost. (author). 17 refs., 2 tabs

  1. Alternative Perspectives on Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Jeannie; Orasanu, J.; Connors, Mary M. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of

  2. Prevention of occupational risks in animal experimentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez Palacio, J.

    2007-01-01

    This work focuses on the main specific risks for those working with laboratory animals in a Research Center such as CIEMAT. First we present the general biological risks, their laws and rules. Next, we development the specific risks associated with the laboratory animals, zoonotic diseases and allergies. then we deal with the risks that can be consequence of working with laboratory animals, ionizing radiations, chemical products, genetically modified organisms, liquid nitrogen management, bio containment and human samples management. As they are subjects of interest, we also include the workers health assesment for those exposed to biological agents, including recommendations about hygiene and disinfections. (Author)

  3. Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Ihor; Voloshyn, Mykyta

    2013-01-01

    In this article, on the basis of the "cash flow at risk" approach, the system of the integrated (credit, market, operational and liquidity risks) risk management in a market-maker commercial bank is developed. This system guarantees reaching profitability, liquidity and coverage of banking risks and thus allows the fullest protection of the interests of depositors, creditors and shareholders of the bank providing its sustainable development.

  4. Governmental management of chemical risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, R.

    1990-01-01

    This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

  5. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  6. [Chemical risk in farming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

  7. Nuclear insurance fire risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dressler, E.G.

    2001-01-01

    Nuclear facilities operate under the constant risk that radioactive materials could be accidentally released off-site and cause injuries to people or damages to the property of others. Management of this nuclear risk, therefore, is very important to nuclear operators, financial stakeholders and the general public. Operators of these facilities normally retain a portion of this risk and transfer the remainder to others through an insurance mechanism. Since the nuclear loss exposure could be very high, insurers usually assess their risk first-hand by sending insurance engineers to conduct a nuclear insurance inspection. Because a serious fire can greatly increase the probability of an off-site release of radiation, fire safety should be included in the nuclear insurance inspection. This paper reviews essential elements of a facility's fire safety program as a key factor in underwriting nuclear third-party liability insurance. (author)

  8. Radiation risks in pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossman, K.L.; Hill, L.T.

    1982-01-01

    A major contraindication of radiodiagnostic procedures is pregnancy. Approximately 1% of all pregnant women are given abdominal x-rays during the first trimester of pregnancy. Evaluation of radiation exposure should involve consideration of the types of examinations performed and when performed, as well as radiation dose and risk estimation. This information is then weighed against other possible risks of the pregnancy as well as personal factors. In the authors' experiences, radiation exposures usually result in doses to the embryo of less than 5 cGy (rad); the resulting radiation risks are usually small compared with other risks of pregnancy. Procedures to minimize diagnostic x-ray exposure of the fetus are also discussed

  9. Risk and fear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerch, I [New York Univ., NY (USA). Medical Center

    1980-01-03

    It is shown that perception of risk often has a greater impact on our actions than does objective analysis of probabilities and that this factor dominates the whole tenor of the debate over nuclear power.

  10. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-06-01

    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  11. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  12. The risk perception gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frech, E.

    1995-01-01

    Most members of the public view the risks of nuclear power as uniquely hazardous. A survey in 1993 found that Canadians rank nuclear waste as the eleventh highest risk to their health. The trouble is that the public are not simply misinformed; rather, they view risk as something different from the product of probability of occurrence of an event multiplied by the measure of its harmful consequences. Among the 30 to 40 factors that influence public perception of risk, or acceptance of technology, are some that the scientific and technical community has hitherto failed to heed. Many of these factors can in fact be accommodated in the design, development and public presentation of nuclear projects. Such an accommodation of the public's views would involve dealing with factors like voluntariness, controllability, reversibility, equity and fairness, benefits, and trust in institutions. 9 refs

  13. Cultural differences in risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do-Yeong Kim

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We compared South Koreans with Australians in order to characterize cultural differences in attitudes and choices regarding risk, at both the individual and group levels. Our results showed that Australians, when assessed individually, consistently self-reported higher preference for risk than South Koreans, regardless of gender. The data revealed that South Koreans, regardless of gender composition, were willing to take greater risks when making decisions in group decision-making situations than when they were alone. This is a different pattern from that seen in the Australian sample, in which a risky shift was noted only among males. This difference was attributed to the influence of various cultural orientations (independent vs. interdependent relationship styles. This study also provides a discussion of the implications of these results in terms of cultural differences in attitudes and decisions regarding risk.

  14. Fissile material proliferation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The proliferation risk of a facility depends on the material attractiveness, level of safeguards, and physical protection applied to the material in conjunction with an assessment of the impact of the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment. Proliferation risk is a complementary extension of proliferation resistance. The authors believe a better determination of nuclear proliferation can be achieved by establishing the proliferation risk for facilities that contain nuclear material. Developing a method that incorporates the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment inherent to each country enables a global proliferation assessment. To effectively reduce the nuclear danger, a broadly based set of criteria is needed that provides the capability to relatively assess a wide range of nuclear related sites and facilities in different countries and still ensure a global decrease in proliferation risk for fissile material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium)

  15. Exchange Risk Management Policy

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    At the Finance Committee of March 2005, following a comment by the CERN Audit Committee, the Chairman invited the Management to prepare a document on exchange risk management policy. The Finance Committee is invited to take note of this document.

  16. Risks of mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartz, H.M.; Reichling, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    In summary, the following practical guidelines for mammography are offered: 1. Any woman, regardless of age, with signs or symptoms that indicate breast cancer should have a mammogram. 2. A woman who has a high risk for breast cancer (e.g., strong family history, no pregnancy before 30 years of age, or a previous breast cancer) should receive periodic screening examinations, including mammography. 3. Periodic screening for asymptomatic women over the age of 50 is indicated. 4. The value of periodic screening for asymptomatic women who are not considered to be at high risk and are under the age of 50 years is not established. Such screening should be carried out only when useful data can be collected on the benefits and risks of this procedure. 5. For any individual woman, the risk of inducing breast cancer by mammography is very low. 6. Mammograms should be made only with modern equipment and techniques designed to provide optimum information with minimal dose

  17. Obesity and Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... hormone therapy and for tumors that express hormone receptors . Obesity is also a risk factor for breast ...

  18. Econometrics of risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

    2015-01-01

    This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

  19. Histoplasmosis Risk and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Huprikar S, Azie N, Quan SP, Meier-Kriesche HU, Horn DL. Clinical characteristics and outcomes in 303 HIV- ... Slama TG, Norton JA, Kohler RB, Eitzen HE, French ML, et al. Risk factors for disseminated or ...

  20. Risk for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... publish guidance in 1999 and 2002 outlining a geography-based donor deferral policy to reduce the risk ... supplies [the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule], was applied in the UK and appeared to be highly ...

  1. Risks of underage drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a higher risk of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem. Drinking during puberty can also change hormones in ... the first to achieve this important distinction for online health information and services. Learn more about A. ...

  2. Risk Management Plan Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.

  3. Management of radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1996-01-01

    The need to control the risk from ionizing radiation can be tracked back to the eve of the twentieth century. However, as knowledge improved and practices expanded, the approaches to this control have evolved. No longer is the mere respect of some forms of exposure limits or safety related standards sufficient. Rather, it is widely admitted that there is a need for managing radiation risk, both by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of enhancing protection and by setting up a proper organization that allows handling of the risk. This paper describes the multiple aspects of radiation risk management and points out the main related issues. It critically analyzes ALARA and ICRP recommendations. 74 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  4. Resourceful or At Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Anna-Katharina

    Introduction: Social categories are used to determine which individuals are at an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and they are a vital tool for the development of targeted interventions. This presentation takes a critical look at the Resourceful and At Risk categories, that are often emplo...... employed in research and social work, and investigate the possible consequences of the preconceptions born out of these categories....

  5. Managing Chemical & Material Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Certification Program Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 9 DoD Hexavalent Chromium Risk Reduction Non- Chrome Primer II EXAVAJ ENT CHROM lrUMI...Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX) • Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine  Hexavalent Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …pending downgrade to watch list Beryllium...T1me (secondo) 700 Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 10 Hexavalent Chromium Risk Management Actions • DoD minimization policy signed April

  6. Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Sautua, Santiago-Ignacio

    2016-01-01

    Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a s...

  7. Risk communication: Nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.

    1991-01-01

    The emphasis is put on communication processes, here in particular with regard to nuclear energy. Not so much dealt with are questions concerning political regulation, the constellation of power between those becoming active and risk perception by the population. Presented are individual arguments, political positions and decision-making processes. Dealt with in particular are safety philosophies, risk debates, and attempts to 'channel' all sides to the subject of nuclear energy. (DG) [de

  8. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  9. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  10. Discounting and Expropriation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

  11. Radiation risks in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1987-01-01

    The problem of risk assessment is greater at the low effective dose rates now observed in the majority of all forms of exposure, usually of less than 3 mSv per year from natural causes, from occupational exposure, and from exposure of 'critical groups' of the general public. For most populations there are particular problems also in epidemiological studies at low dose, in addition to those due to the very large numbers of person-years that need to be studied and the long latencies of most radiation effects. Adequate estimates can, however, now be made of the carcinogenic risk of exposure at higher dose of various organs selectively and of the whole body uniformly, and of modes of inference to the risk at lower dose. Estimates can also be made of the risks of inducing major types of inheritable and developmental abnormality. An essential step in viewing the sum of all such radiation risks in the perspective of other occupational and public risks must now be to develop an informed consensus on the relative weight that is regarded as attaching to hazards of different kind and severity. (author)

  12. Regulatory risk coherence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remick, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    As one of the most progressive users of risk assessment in decision making, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in a position to play an important role in influencing the development of standard government wide policies for the application of risk assessment in decision making. The NRC, with the support of the nuclear industry, should use the opportunity provided by its experience with risk assessment to actively encourage the adoption of standard national and international health-based safety goals and at the same time accelerate its own efforts to implement the safety goals it has already developed for itself. There are signs of increased recognition of the need for consistency and coherence in the application of risk assessment in government decision making. The NRC and the nuclear industry have recently taken a great step toward establishing a consistant and coherent risk assessment-based culture in the US nuclear industry. As a result of Generic Letter 88-20, which asks each commercial nuclear power plant licensee to perform an individual plant examination by September 1992, for the first time a risk assessment characterizing initiating events in each plant will exist

  13. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  14. Radiation and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobi, W.

    1983-01-01

    From the beginnings of the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy, the principles of prevention and optimization have greatly limited the emission of radioactive substances. In this way, the radiation exposure associated with emissions from nuclear power plants during normal operation has been kept low compared with natural radiation exposure and its variance. This also applies to the local public in the vicinities of such plants. The present health hazard to the public arising from ionizing radiation is only a small fraction of the man-made risk to which the public is exposed in this country. This is also due to the fact that radiation protection employs the principle of prevention, which has been laid down in legal regulations. In this respect, the concepts and criteria developed in radiation protection for evaluation, limitation and optimization may be useful examples to other areas of safety at work and environmental protection. The acceptance of nuclear power is decisively influenced by the remaining residual risk of accidents. Extremely careful inspection and supervision of the technical safety of such plants is indispensable to prevent major accidents. The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants has made an important contribution to this end. It is being continued. However, risk research must always be accompanied by risk comparison to allow numerical risk data to be evaluated properly and important features to be distinguished from unimportant ones. (orig.) [de

  15. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  16. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  17. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  18. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  20. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  1. A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

    2005-01-01

    ... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

  2. Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevent Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke About 1.5 million heart attacks and ... can’t change some of your risks for heart disease and stroke, but you can manage many of ...

  3. Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfiana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

  4. INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

    2014-01-01

    The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

  5. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  6. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  7. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  8. Reputation and its risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Robert G; Newquist, Scott C; Schatz, Roland

    2007-02-01

    Regulators, industry groups, consultants, and individual companies have developed elaborate guidelines over the years for assessing and managing risks in a wide range of areas, from commodity prices to natural disasters. Yet they have all but ignored reputational risk, mostly because they aren't sure how to define or measure it. That's a big problem, say the authors. Because so much market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets like brand equity and intellectual capital, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations. Moreover, companies with strong positive reputations attract better talent and are perceived as providing more value in their products and services, which often allows them to charge a premium. Their customers are more loyal and buy broader ranges of products and services. Since the market believes that such companies will deliver sustained earnings and future growth, they have higher price-earnings multiples and market values and lower costs of capital. Most companies, however, do an inadequate job of managing their reputations in general and the risks to their reputations in particular. They tend to focus their energies on handling the threats to their reputations that have already surfaced. That is not risk management; it is crisis management--a reactive approach aimed at limiting the damage. The authors provide a framework for actively managing reputational risk. They introduce three factors (the reputation-reality gap, changing beliefs and expectations, and weak internal coordination) that affect the level of such risks and then explore several ways to sufficiently quantify and control those factors. The process outlined in this article will help managers do a better job of assessing existing and potential threats to their companies' reputations and deciding whether to accept a particular risk or take actions to avoid or mitigate it.

  9. [Detecting high risk pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

    2009-12-20

    Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

  10. Trading and risk management during the transition to competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, A.

    2001-01-01

    This power point presentation outlined the risks facing companies active in competitive energy markets. It reviewed and explained various types of risks including physical, market, credit, liquidity, volumetric and operational risks. The management of price risks includes trading and risk management strategies aimed at exploiting the alternatives associated with highly volatile power and fuel markets. The presentation also reviewed financial energy management in terms of the fuel markets and wholesale markets. Approaches to trading were also presented. tabs., figs

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  12. Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  13. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  14. Genetic risks from radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selby, P.B.

    Two widely-recognized committees, UNSCEAR and BEIR, have reevaluated their estimates of genetic risks from radiation. Their estimates for gene mutations are based on two different approaches, one being the doubling-dose approach and the other being a new direct approach based on an empirical determination of the amount of dominant induced damage in the skeletons of mice in the first generation following irradiation. The estimates made by these committees are in reasonably good agreement and suggest that the genetic risks from present exposures resultng from nuclear power production are small. There is room for much improvement in the reliability of the risk estimates. The relatively new approach of measuring the amount of induced damage to the mouse skeleton shows great promise of improving knowledge about how changes in the mutation frequency affect the incidence of genetic disorders. Such findings may have considerable influence on genetic risk estimates for radiation and on the development of risk estimates for other less-well-understood environmental mutagens. (author)

  15. Cancer risk from inorganics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swierenga, S.H.; Gilman, J.P.; McLean, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Inorganic metals and minerals for which there is evidence of carcinogenicity are identified. The risk of cancer from contact with them in the work place, the general environment, and under conditions of clinical (medical) exposure is discussed. The evidence indicates that minerals and metals most often influence cancer development through their action as cocarcinogens. The relationship between the physical form of mineral fibers, smoking and carcinogenic risk is emphasized. Metals are categorized as established (As, Be, Cr, Ni), suspected (Cd, Pb) and possible carcinogens, based on the existing in vitro, animal experimental and human epidemiological data. Cancer risk and possible modes of action of elements in each class are discussed. Views on mechanisms that may be responsible for the carcinogenicity of metals are updated and analysed. Some specific examples of cancer risks associated with the clinical use of potentially carcinogenic metals and from radioactive pharmaceuticals used in therapy and diagnosis are presented. Questions are raised as to the effectiveness of conventional dosimetry in accurately measuring risk from radiopharmaceuticals. 302 references

  16. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  17. Sound construction of risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Kjær, Christian; Thomsen, Marianne

      In spite of the great effort in the area of environmental risk assessment of chemicals, a critical amount of uncertainty is still a reality due to high complexity of the governing risk problem. Unexpected adverse effects may thus take place event though the risk assessment predicts no-risk. Some...... chemicals are even lacking risk assessment due to a priori judgment based on risk screening methods that bypass further risk assessment activity. It is thus advisable to set up a safety net under the risk assessment of chemicals and this poster suggests a supporting paradigm using risk indicators...... that governs the method: HotSpot Driven Aggregation of Risk Indicators (HoSDARI) as described in Sørensen et al. (2008). The purpose of the risk assessment is to protect a defined target that has some value for protection. The target has a number of realizations each defined as a Protection Unit (PU...

  18. Self-perceived facture risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rothmann, M J; Ammentorp, J; Bech, M

    2015-01-01

    , and self-rated heath) and self-perceived fracture risk. Although women recognized the importance of some fracture risk factors, a number of significant risk factors appeared to be less well known. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to investigate women's self-perceived fracture risk and potential...... factors associated with this and to compare self-perceived risk with absolute fracture risk estimated by FRAX® in women aged 65-80 years. METHODS: Data from 20,905 questionnaires from the ROSE study were analyzed. The questionnaire included 25 items on osteoporosis, risk factors for fractures, and self...... their fracture risk significantly higher than their peers. No correlation between self-perceived risk and absolute risk was found. The ordered logistic regression model showed a significant association between high self-perceived fracture risk and previous fragility fracture, parental hip fracture, falls, self...

  19. Modelling allergenic risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie

    combines second order Monte-Carlo simulations with Bayesian inferences [13]. An alternative method using second order Monte-Carlo simulations was proposed to take into account the uncertainty from the inputs. The uncertainty propagation from the inputs to the risk of allergic reaction was also evaluated...... countries is proposed. Thus, the allergen risk assessment can be performed cross-nationally and for the correct food group. Then the two probabilistic risk assessment methods usually used were reviewed and compared. First order Monte-Carlo simulations are used in one method [14], whereas the other one......Up to 20 million Europeans suffer from food allergies. Due to the lack of knowledge about why food allergies developed or how to protect allergic consumers from the offending food, food allergy management is mainly based on food allergens avoidance. The iFAAM project (Integrated approaches to Food...

  20. Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly Gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

  1. Risk of cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gejl, Michael; Starup-Linde, Jakob; Scheel-Thomsen, Jan

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (DM) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. We investigated the effects of antidiabetic drugs on the composite endpoint (CE) of ischemic heart disease, heart failure or stroke in DM patients. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study. Cases were DM patients who......% CI: 16.88-24.12), neuropathy (OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.05-1.85) and peripheral artery disease (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.69) increased the risk of CE. Biguanides (OR=0.62 95% CI; 0.54-0.71) and liraglutide (OR=0.48 95% CI; 0.38-0.62) significantly decreased the risk of CE as did statin treatment (OR=0.63, 95...

  2. Danger, hazard, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1992-01-01

    The real conditions covered by technical safety studies are described better by the term 'risk' instead of such qualitative terms as 'danger' or 'hazard'. 'Risk' incorporates not only the type of damage, the onset of damage, the probability of damage occurring, but also the extent of damage. In reliability and safety engineering, a probabilistic safety analysis is able to describe a plant most comprehensively by these three elements: What can happen? How frequently will it occur? What are the impacts to be taken into account? PSA is meaningful not only when applied to such technical areas in which there is a risk potential; the holistic analytical process optimizes any kind of system and plant in terms of availability and technical safety. (orig.) [de

  3. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F

    1980-12-01

    There is little correlation between public response to perceived risks and the life-expectancy statistics for hazardous occupations. Case studies show that the public reacts more strongly to conflicting information from the warnings of experts and the media, giving more credence to individual situations than to statistical probabilities. The impact of a large-scale accident intensifies the perception of risk even though the situation may be safer over time. These factors affect the public's ability to accept nuclear power and its insistence on public debate, which may shift from the area of facts and documentation to that of values. Decision makers may need to compromise by shifting expenditures to actions that involve low levels of risk. 2 references, 1 figure, 2 tables. (DCK)

  4. Government Risk-Bearing

    CERN Document Server

    1993-01-01

    The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. To...

  5. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  6. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  7. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  8. Risks from dental radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Tamara Goularte

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to demonstrate the risks and consequences of exposure to dental X-ray. The methodology used was the survey of bibliographic literature on this matter. First, we tried to understand the operation and characteristics of dental X-rays. Afterwards, we tried to know about the risks that this procedure offers to workers and patients. And concluded with the consequences of such exposure. The results showed that dental x-rays only offer risks in prolonged exposure, can affect the worker or patient to pathologies such as cancer or a life-time decreased due to the stochastic effect. Therefore, radiological protection standards must be respected and practised. (author)

  9. Risks for radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rotblat, J.

    1978-01-01

    The following topics are discussed: recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection; methods for determining dose limits to workers; use of data from survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki for estimating risk factors; use of data from survivors of nuclear explosions in Marshall Islands, uranium miners, and patients exposed to diagnostic and therapeutic radiation; risk factors for radioinduced malignancies; evidence that risk factors for persons exposed to partial-body radiation and Japanese survivors are too low; greater resistance of A-bomb survivors to radiation; and radiation doses received by U.K. medical workers and by U.K. fuel reprocessing workers. It is suggested that the dose limit for radiation workers should be reduced by a factor of 5

  10. Insurance of nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacroix, M.

    1976-01-01

    Insurance for large nuclear installations covers mainly four types of risk: third party liability which in accordance with the nuclear conventions, is borne by a nuclear operator following an incident occurring in his installation or during transport of nuclear substances; material damage to the installation itself, which precisely is not covered by third party liability insurance; machinery breakdown, i.e. accidental damage or interruption of operation. Only the first category must be insured. In view of the magnitude of the risk, nuclear insurance resorts to co-insurance and reinsurance techniques which results in a special organisation of the nuclear insurance market, based on national nuclear insurance pools and on the Standing Committee on Atomic Risk of the European Insurance Committee. Conferences of the chairmen of nuclear insurance pools are convened regularly at a worldwide level. (NEA) [fr

  11. The CPC Risk Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røder, Martin Andreas; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Loft, Mathias Dyrberg

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It can be challenging to predict the risk of biochemical recurrence (BR) during follow-up after radical prostatectomy (RP) in men who have undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA), even years after surgery. OBJECTIVE: To establish and validate a contemporary nomogram that predicts...... on the necessity for further follow-up. The nomogram is the first to be available as a free app. PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed an easily interpretable nomogram to evaluate the risk of prostate-specific antigen elevation (cancer recurrence) following complete removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy...... included. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time to BR was defined as the first PSA result ≥0.2 ng/ml. BR risk was computed using multiple cause-specific Cox regression including preoperative PSA, pT category, RP Gleason score (GS), and surgical margin (R) status. Death without BR...

  12. Diagnostic radiation risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherwood, T [Addenbrooke' s Hospital, Cambridge (UK)

    1980-04-01

    A brief discussion on diagnostic radiation risks is given. First some fundamental facts on the concepts and units of radiation measurement are clarified. Medical diagnostic radiation doses are also compared to the radiation doses received annually by man from natural background radiation. The controversy concerning the '10-day rule' in X-raying women of child-bearing age is discussed; it would appear that the risk of malformation in an unborn child due to X-radiation is very much less than the natural level of risk of malformation. The differences in the radiographic techniques and thus the different X-ray doses needed to make adequate X-ray images of different parts of the body are considered. The radiation burden of nuclear medicine investigations compared to X-ray procedures is also discussed. Finally, the problems of using volunteers in radiation research are aired.

  13. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  14. Risk premium and insalubrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portela, Josmael; Figueira, Rosania Lucia

    2005-01-01

    The risk premium and insalubrity have been widely discussed in the legal universe/labor. The social and economic impacts interfere on the right of the professional exposed to ionizing radiation to have or not additional rights. Due to the large accidents, with world repercussion, which occurred in recent times, involving workers undergoing these radiation, these professionals are receiving special attention by the competent bodies on the right or not to risk premium and insalubrity. The professional who operates equipment that emit ionising radiation, or those working directly with radioisotopes are undoubtedly under imminent risk, even if they complied with all safety requirements, thus deserving a more careful analysis by our lawyers with respect to receive additional percentages. Recent decisions of higher Courts begin to consolidate a more just and logical reasoning on the subject

  15. Risk management versus incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, E.; Lovas, K.; Osmundsen, P.

    2006-01-01

    Portfolio theory indicates that risk management should take place at the group level. Hedging at the project level or in the individual business areas may lead to suboptimal results. However, the efficiency of a profit centre depends on its management's being able to influence factors that are crucial to the unit's financial results. Price hedging could be one such factor. In the wider perspective, this constitutes part of the balancing between centralisation and decentralisation. This article covers important elements of risk management and incentive design. It goes on to discuss the balancing of overall risk management at the group level and incentive design in profit centres and corporate units. Throughout the article, the oil industry serves as a case. (author)

  16. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  17. Essays on liquidity and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Umlauft, Roland

    2013-01-01

    In Chapter 1 I investigate the economic importance of correlation in mutual fund flows for funds with overlapping portfolio positions. I illustrate theoretically that commonality in trading by funds due to flow correlation influences the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, I show that the expected return from an asset for a specific agent is conditional on correlation of this particular asset holder’s flows with his peers. Finally, I derive a theoretical upper bound of optimal flow correlation an...

  18. LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenyves Veronika

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The consequence of the economic crisis, the access of the external financing resources was narrowed significantly and lenders had became more cautious. This meant that the external source providers analyze more thoroughly the source claimants, and they also need to be more aware of their situation, to submit well founded loan applications to financial institutions. The other aspect is why the indicators presented in the study, the firms should be addressed much more thoroughly than ever before to have a much better understanding their situation, to recognize the sources of internal funding opportunities, and to use more efficiently the available internal resources. However, analysts should be aware of which are the ratios which should be paid a special attention and which ones are essential to assess a given situation, knowing them they can properly inform the leaders as well as to give an appropriate help to the decision makers. To ensure the appropriate level of internal resources the company's activity is continuous financing closely related to the working capital management. The other reason is why the working capital management coming into view - which is linked to the previous one - that longer and longer payment periods have emerged in the corporate sales, in point of fact there is a significant increase in commercial lending period, the companies must be able to finance this period. The working capital is essential for companies to determine their short-term financial positions. A significant change in working capital provides an important information to the company's various stakeholders, and this is especially true for the net working capital. The working capital analysis is one way the company's creditability evaluation, and helps also to better understand the company's normal business cycle.

  19. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  20. Innovation and environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, L.; Weale, A.

    1991-01-01

    This book assembles the opinions of a number of authors to examine the issue of environmental impact and risk associated with innovation. Public, industrial and government responses to new technological developments are considered with respect to pesticides, genetic engineering, food technology and radiation protection. On the one hand innovation promises and delivers great benefits to society, but on the other hand it is increasingly perceived as a threat to the health and safety of its citizens and to the environment. This dilemma lead to a conference to discuss the benefits and risks of innovation. Papers given at the conference have been included in this book after discussion and revision. (UK)