WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk level assessment

  1. Population-level ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W.); Sorensen, Mary T; Munns, Wayne R

    2008-01-01

    ... and Effect Assessment Vethaak, Schrap, de Voogt, editors 2006 Assessing the Hazard of Metals and Inorganic Metal Substances in Aquatic and Terrestrial Systems Adams and Chapman, editors 2006 Pe...

  2. Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

  3. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  4. Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

  5. Screening Level Risk Assessment for the New Waste Calcining Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler; R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; M. B. Heiser

    1999-05-01

    This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidify (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 1.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  8. Risk assessment and reliability for low level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, P.O.; Jones, G.A.

    1986-01-01

    The reliability of critical design features at low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities is a major concern in the licensing of these structures. To date, no systematic methodology has been adopted to evaluate the geotechnical reliability of Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) disposal facilities currently being designed and/or constructed. This paper discusses and critiques the deterministic methods currently used to evaluate UMTRA reliability. Because deterministic methods may not be applicable in some cases because of the unusually long design life of UMTRA facilities, it is proposed that a probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology be used as a secondary method to aid in the evaluating of geotechnical reliability of critical items. Similar methodologies have proven successful in evaluating the reliability of a variety of conventional earth structures. In this paper, an ''acceptable'' level of risk for UMTRA facilities is developed, an evaluation method is presented, and two example applications of the proposed methodology are provided for a generic UMTRA disposal facility. The proposed technique is shown to be a simple method which might be used to aid in reliability evaluations on a selective basis. Finally, other possible applications and the limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed

  9. Risk assessment of groundwater level variability using variable Kriging methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2015-04-01

    Assessment of the water table level spatial variability in aquifers provides useful information regarding optimal groundwater management. This information becomes more important in basins where the water table level has fallen significantly. The spatial variability of the water table level in this work is estimated based on hydraulic head measured during the wet period of the hydrological year 2007-2008, in a sparsely monitored basin in Crete, Greece, which is of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest. Three Kriging-based methodologies are elaborated in Matlab environment to estimate the spatial variability of the water table level in the basin. The first methodology is based on the Ordinary Kriging approach, the second involves auxiliary information from a Digital Elevation Model in terms of Residual Kriging and the third methodology calculates the probability of the groundwater level to fall below a predefined minimum value that could cause significant problems in groundwater resources availability, by means of Indicator Kriging. The Box-Cox methodology is applied to normalize both the data and the residuals for improved prediction results. In addition, various classical variogram models are applied to determine the spatial dependence of the measurements. The Matérn model proves to be the optimal, which in combination with Kriging methodologies provides the most accurate cross validation estimations. Groundwater level and probability maps are constructed to examine the spatial variability of the groundwater level in the basin and the associated risk that certain locations exhibit regarding a predefined minimum value that has been set for the sustainability of the basin's groundwater resources. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the

  10. Level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment for a PWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Keisuke; Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ichitsuka, Akihiro

    2014-01-01

    In Japan, revised Seismic Design Guidelines for the domestic light water reactors was published on September 19, 2006. These new guidelines have introduced the purpose to confirm that residual risk resulting from earthquake that exceeds the design limit seismic ground motion (Ss) is sufficiently small, based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method, in addition to conventional deterministic design base methodology. In response to this situation, JNES had been working to improve seismic PRA (SPRA) models for individual domestic light water reactors. In case of PWR in Japan, total of 24 plants were grouped into 11 categories to develop individual SPRA model. The new regulatory rules against the Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants' severe accidents occurred on March 11, 2011, are going to be enforced in July 2013 and utilities are necessary to implement additional safety measures to avoid and mitigate severe accident occurrence due to external events such as earthquake and tsunami, by referring to the results of severe accident study including SPRA. In this paper a SPRA model development for a domestic 3-loop PWR plant as part of the above-mentioned 11 categories is described. We paid special attention to how to categorize initiating events that are specific to seismic phenomena and how to confirm the effect of the simultaneous failure probability calculation model for the multiple components on the result of core damage frequency evaluation. Simultaneous failure probability for multiple components has been evaluated by power multiplier method. Then tentative level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been performed by the developed SPSA model with seismic hazard and fragility data. The base case was evaluated under the condition with calculated fragility data and conventional power multiplier. The difference in CDF between the case of conventional power multiplier and that of power multiplier=1 (complete dependence) was estimated to be

  11. Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The levels of trace metals (Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd) were determined in soils from a major automobile repair workshop located in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. This was carried out to evaluate the potential occupational risk to operators working in and around the site. The mean of trace metal levels were: lead (14.52 mg/kg); ...

  12. On risk assessment of high level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1976-01-01

    One of the major concerns with the continued growth of the nuclear power industry is the production of the high level radioactive wastes. The risks associated with the disposal of these wastes derives from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. In the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected 35 year nuclear power program is determined. An index of relative nuclide hazard appropriate to problems involving the management of high level radioactive wastes is developed. As an illustration of the methodology, risk analyses are made for two proposed methods for waste management: extraterrestrial disposal and interim surface storage. The results of these analyses indicate that, within the assumptions used, the risks of these management schemes are small compared with natural background radiation doses. (Auth.)

  13. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  14. Offshore dredger sounds: Source levels, sound maps, and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, C.A.F. de; Ainslie, M.A.; Heinis, F.; Janmaat, J.

    2016-01-01

    The underwater sound produced during construction of the Port of Rotterdam harbor extension (Maasvlakte 2) was measured, with emphasis on the contribution of the trailing suction hopper dredgers during their various activities: dredging, transport, and discharge of sediment. Measured source levels

  15. The assessment of risks from exposure to low-levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1992-06-01

    This report is concerned with risk assessments for human populations receiving low level radiation doses; workers routinely exposed to radiation, Japanese victims of nuclear bombs, and the general public are all considered. Topics covered include risk estimates for cancer, mortality rates, risk estimates for nuclear site workers, and dosimetry

  16. Assessing risks from occupational exposure to low-level radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1989-06-01

    Currently, several epidemiological studies of workers who have been exposed occupationally to radiation are being conducted. These include workers in the United States, Great Britain, and Canada, involved in the production of both defense materials and nuclear power. A major reason for conducting these studies is to evaluate possible adverse health effects that may have resulted because of the radiation exposure received. The general subject of health effects resulting from low levels of radiation, including these worker studies, has attracted the attention of various news media, and has been the subject of considerable controversy. These studies provide a good illustration of certain other aspects of the statistician's role; namely, communication and adequate subject matter knowledge. A competent technical job is not sufficient if these other aspects are not fulfilled

  17. PRESTO low-level waste transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Fields, D.E.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Emerson, C.J.

    1981-01-01

    PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code developed under US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding to evaluate possible health effects from shallow land burial trenches. The model is intended to be generic and to assess radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impact to a static local population for a 1000-y period following the end of burial operations. Human exposure scenarios considered by the model include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population inlude: groundwater transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, resuspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses are calculated as well as doses to the intruder and farmer. Cumulative health effects in terms of deaths from cancer are calculated for the population over the thousand-year period using a life-table approach. Data bases are being developed for three extant shallow land burial sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York

  18. San Luis Valley - Taos Plateau Landscape-Level Cultural Heritage Values and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wescott, Konstance L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Abplanalp, Jennifer M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Brown, Jeff [Bureau of Land Management, Monte Vista, CO (United States); Cantwell, Brian [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Dicks, Merrill [Bureau of Land Management, Taos, NM (United States); Fredericks, Brian [Bureau of Land Management, Monte Vista, CO (United States); Krall, Angie [US Forest Service, Creede, CO (United States); Rollins, Katherine E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sullivan, Robert [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Valdez, Arnie [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Verhaaren, Bruce [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Vieira, Joseph [Bureau of Land Management, Monte Vista, CO (United States); Walston, Lee [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zvolanek, Emily A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-01

    The San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Landscape-Level Cultural Heritage Values and Risk Assessment (hereafter referred to as cultural assessment) is a BLM pilot project designed to see whether the Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) framework (already established and implemented throughout many ecoregions in the West) can be applied to the cultural environment.

  19. Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone......-movement time and the movement time were adjusted for the required safe egress time (RSET) of the nightclub. The number of simulations required in order to obtain reliable results was considered sufficient at 20,000. The comparison of the risk profiles of the nightclub and the office building showed significant...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

  20. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  1. Environmental health risk assessment of ambient lead levels in Lisbon, Portugal: A full chain study approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casimiro, E.; Philippe Ciffroy, P.; Serpa, P.

    2011-01-01

    to calculate the Pb levels in the various body systems. Our results showed a low health risk from Pb exposures. It also identified that ingestion of leafy vegetables (i.e. lettuce, cabbage, and spinach) and fruits contribute the most to total Pb blood levels. This full chain assessment approach of the 2FUN...

  2. Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying the Criticality Index Model. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... This study has carefully shown and expressed a step by step computation of the severity level of the Turbine component parts, using the Criticality Index model.

  3. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  4. Heavy metals pollution levels and children health risk assessment of Yerevan kindergartens soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepanosyan, Gevorg; Maghakyan, Nairuhi; Sahakyan, Lilit; Saghatelyan, Armen

    2017-08-01

    Children, the most vulnerable urban population group, are exceptionally sensitive to polluted environments, particularly urban soils, which can lead to adverse health effects upon exposure. In this study, the total concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Ti, V, and Zn were determined in 111 topsoil samples collected from kindergartens in Yerevan. The objectives of this study were to evaluate heavy metal pollution levels of kindergarten's soils in Yerevan, compare with national legal and international requirements on heavy metal contents in kindergarten soil, and assess related child health risk. Multivariate geostatistical analyses suggested that the concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mo, Pb, and Zn observed in the kindergarten's topsoil may have originated from anthropogenic sources, while Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Ti, and V mostly come from natural sources. According to the Summary pollution index (Zc), 102 kindergartens belong to the low pollution level, 7 to the moderate and only 2 to the high level of pollution. Summary concentration index (SCI) showed that 109 kindergartens were in the allowable level, while 2 featured in the low level of pollution. The health risk assessment showed that in all kindergartens except for seven, non-carcinogenic risk for children was detected (HI>1), while carcinogenic risk from arsenic belongs to the very low (allowable) level. Cr and multi-element carcinogenic risk (RI) exceeded the safety level (1.0E- 06) in all kindergartens and showed that the potential of developing cancer, albeit small, does exist. Therefore, city's kindergartens require necessary remedial actions to eliminate or reduce soil pollution and heavy metal-induced health risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Use of ecotoxicological screening action levels in ecological risk assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferenbauah, R.; Ebinger, M.; Gallegos, A.; Hansen, W.; Myers, O.; Wenzel, W.

    1995-01-01

    Regulatory drivers found in several environmental statutes require that ecological risk assessment and Natural Resource Damage Assessment be performed to assess potential environmental impact from contaminated sites and from proposed remedial alternatives. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the initial phase of the ecological risk assessment process required preliminary evaluation of contaminated sites to determine whether potential for ecological impact exists. The preliminary evaluations were made using Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels (ESALS) calculated as a function of reference toxicity dose, body weight, food/water/air intake, and fraction of soil intake with food. Reference toxicity doses were derived from the Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables (HEAST) toxicology databases. Other parameters required for ESAL calculations were derived from physiological, metabolic, and behavioral data available in the literature. The Los Alamos ESALs were derived for guilds of animals with similar behavioral patterns, which were identified from natural resource survey data collected at Los Alamos. Subsequent to development of Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels, Hazard Quotients, which are ratios of soil concentrations to Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels, were calculated for potential contaminants of concern. The Hazard Quotients were used to identify which potential contaminants of concern should be evaluated further for ecological impact. There is potential for ecological impact when the Hazard Quotient is equal to or greater than one

  6. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  7. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  8. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  9. Level 3 Baseline Risk Assessment for Building 3515 at Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wollert, D.A.; Cretella, F.M.; Golden, K.M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)] [and others

    1995-08-01

    The baseline risk assessment for the Fission Product Pilot Plant (Building 3515) at the Oak Ridge National laboratory (ORNL) provides the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) Program at ORNL and Building 3515 project managers with information concerning the results of the Level 3 baseline risk assessment performed for this building. The document was prepared under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.6.2.01 (Activity Data Sheet 3701, Facilities D&D) and includes information on the potential long-term impacts to human health and the environment if no action is taken to remediate Building 3515. Information provided in this document forms the basis for the development of remedial alternatives and the no-action risk portion of the Engineering Evaluation/Cost Analysis report.

  10. Level 3 Baseline Risk Assessment for Building 3515 at Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wollert, D.A.; Cretella, F.M.; Golden, K.M.

    1995-08-01

    The baseline risk assessment for the Fission Product Pilot Plant (Building 3515) at the Oak Ridge National laboratory (ORNL) provides the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D ampersand D) Program at ORNL and Building 3515 project managers with information concerning the results of the Level 3 baseline risk assessment performed for this building. The document was prepared under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.6.2.01 (Activity Data Sheet 3701, Facilities D ampersand D) and includes information on the potential long-term impacts to human health and the environment if no action is taken to remediate Building 3515. Information provided in this document forms the basis for the development of remedial alternatives and the no-action risk portion of the Engineering Evaluation/Cost Analysis report

  11. Epidemiological methods of assessing risks from low level occupational exposure to ionising radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reissland, J.A.

    1982-01-01

    The resolution of radiation-attributable malignancies from the background of malignancies which are responsible for about 20% of all deaths in the Western world, presents a formidable challenge to epidemiological methods. Some of the major difficulties facing those with the task of estimating the risks associated with exposure to low level ionising radiation are discussed, particularly in the context of radiological protection. Some of the studies currently in progress are summarised and suggestions are made for other work which may help to contribute to a better understanding of the quantitative aspects of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  12. Assessment of human health risk of reported soil levels of metals and radionuclides in Port Hope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    Risk assessment methods are applied to the question of health implications of contaminated soil in the Port Hope area. Soil-related as well as other pathways of exposure are considered. Exposures to the reported levels of uranium, antimony, chromium, copper, nickel, cadmium, cobalt, selenium, and zinc in Port Hope soils are not expected to result in adverse health consequences. Oral exposure to arsenic in soil at the reported levels is estimated to result in incremental cancer risk levels in the negligible range (10 -5 ). Estimated exposures also fall well below suggested toxic thresholds for arsenic. For the two small areas within the >50 μg/g isopleth, assessment of exposure is difficult without more definitive data on soil concentrations in these zones. Contamination of soils with lead is overall quite limited. In general, the reported soil levels of lead are not anticipated to pose a hazard. The site with the highest concentrations of lead is located on the west bank of the Ganaraska River, a popular fishing area. Depending on the level and extent of contamination, as well as degree of contact with the site, potential exposures could exceed tolerable intakes for children. Exposures to the radionuclides Ra(226), Pb(210), and U(238) in soil at the reported levels are estimated to fall well within recommended population limits

  13. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  14. Application of a pilot control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticle exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Samuel Y; Zalk, David M; Swuste, Paul

    2008-08-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified solutions for controlling worker exposures to constituents that are found in the workplace in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure data. These strategies may be particularly useful in nanotechnology applications, considering the overwhelming level of uncertainty over what nanomaterials and nanotechnologies present as potential work-related health risks, what about these materials might lead to adverse toxicological activity, how risk related to these might be assessed and how to manage these issues in the absence of this information. This study introduces a pilot CB tool or 'CB Nanotool' that was developed specifically for characterizing the health aspects of working with engineered nanoparticles and determining the level of risk and associated controls for five ongoing nanotechnology-related operations being conducted at two Department of Energy research laboratories. Based on the application of the CB Nanotool, four of the five operations evaluated in this study were found to have implemented controls consistent with what was recommended by the CB Nanotool, with one operation even exceeding the required controls for that activity. The one remaining operation was determined to require an upgrade in controls. By developing this dynamic CB Nanotool within the realm of the scientific information available, this application of CB appears to be a useful approach for assessing the risk of nanomaterial operations, providing recommendations for appropriate engineering controls and facilitating the allocation of resources to the activities that most need them.

  15. Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

  16. Screening-level risk assessment for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) trimer detected in soil and groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C R; Gargas, M L; Collins, J J; Rowlands, J C

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment.

  17. Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

    2014-12-01

    Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ

  18. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  19. Risk assessment and level of physical activity of students in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanta Grażyna Zuzda

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim . The aim of the study was to determine the risks of activity by using Physical Activity Readiness Questionnaire (PAR-Q and describe the PA profile using the short-version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-SF among selected groups of sport science students. Material and methods The study covered 99 students - 61 females aged 21.08 ± 1.43 and 38 males aged 21.24 ± 1.22 y. In order to asses and stratify the risk of PA the Polish short version of the IPAQ-SF was used. Results. The total level of physical activity of the male students was 3460.039±2502.207 MET- min/week and was higher than in the case of female students (3388,107±2204,290 MET- min/week. The dominant type physical activity of female and male students was intensive effort. Among 22 men and 39 women, risk factors for cardiac events, pulmonary and musculoskeletal injuries were reported. The relationship between PAR-Q results and the on the IPAQ-SF results was no statistically significant. Conclusions This study demonstrates that students achieve the level of physical activity recommended by experts for the prevention of chronic diseases. This research allows sports science students to understand their own health issues through self-assessments of personal risk factors for cardiac events, pulmonary and musculoskeletal injury.

  20. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-11-01

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so-called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing 1 chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes "Common Principles" to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of these 6 principles are: "reduce hazard" and "minimize exposure." A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this article serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build on practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through 2 hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These 2 case studies-inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain-demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard and exposure (risk) analysis. This article informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk context

  1. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  2. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  3. Risk-informed design of IRIS using a level-1 probabilistic risk assessment from its conceptual design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuno, Yuko; Ninokata, Hisashi; Finnicum, David J.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) has been generated to address two key areas as a part of the effort for the pre-application licensing of the IRIS design. First, the IRIS PRA is supporting the evaluation of IRIS design by providing design insights as well as a solid risk basis for the pre-licensing evaluation of the IRIS design. Second, the current PRA task is beginning the preparation of the more complete PRA analyses and documentation that will be required for Design Certification. The initial IRIS PRA is an at-power, Level-1 PRA for internal events that focuses on the evaluation of the IRIS design features to support the risk-informed design of IRIS by application of the PRA insights and the risk information to the design. To accomplish the evaluation, a reasonably complete Level-1 PRA model has been developed. The use of PRA in the early stages of the design has allowed a selection of design and performance features and an optimization of the design of several systems to reduce the potential for events that could lead to core damage via both enhanced prevention and mitigation of challenges. As a result, the total core damage frequency for internal events for the IRIS design has been calculated as 1.2x10 -8 per year

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  9. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  10. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  11. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  12. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. Neighborhood level health risk assessment of lead paint removal activities from elevated steel bridges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conway, R.F.; Cohen, J.T.; Bowers, T.

    1999-07-01

    The New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) has adopted strict containment and monitoring procedures during paint removal activities on its bridges because of the increasing awareness about lead poisoning in children in urban environments and the potential risk of lead-based paint releases during those activities. NYCDOT owns nearly 800 bridges scattered throughout New York City. Before undertaking paint removal activities as part of its ongoing preventive maintenance and rehabilitation program, NYCDOT recently conducted an analysis to determine the public health risk posed to children living near them. The analysis the first of its kind to assess the actual public health risk potential during both routine operations and upset conditions, or accidental releases evaluated the total and incremental blood lead levels from paint removal activities on more than 5,000 children from 6 months to 6 years old. Increases in baseline blood lead levels were estimated using several models, including EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. This model estimates steady-state blood lead levels in children, reflecting exposure to lead in multiple media over an extended period of time. Increases in lead exposure from paint removal activities in the area surrounding the bridges was estimated using EPA's Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) model to calculate ambient air and deposition levels. Potential releases from the containment and ancillary equipment used in the paint removal process were modeled based on different release scenarios ranging from routine operations to complete failure of containment. To estimate the paint removal activities' contribution to long-term exterior dust lead levels (and its related interior component), a stochastic simulation model was developed for each block in the study area.

  18. Screening-Level Risk Assessment for Styrene-Acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer Detected in Soil and Groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C. R.; Gargas, M. L.; Collins, J. J.; Rowlands, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    A screening-level risk assessment was conducted for styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Trimer detected at the Reich Farm Superfund site in Toms River, NJ. Consistent with a screening-level approach, on-site and off-site exposure scenarios were evaluated using assumptions that are expected to overestimate actual exposures and hazards at the site. Environmental sampling data collected for soil and groundwater were used to estimate exposure point concentrations. Several exposure scenarios were evaluated to assess potential on-site and off-site exposures, using parameter values for exposures to soil (oral, inhalation of particulates, and dermal contact) and groundwater (oral, dermal contact) to reflect central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. Three reference dose (RfD) values were derived for SAN Trimer for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, based upon its effects on the liver in exposed rats. Benchmark (BMD) methods were used to assess the relationship between exposure and response, and to characterize appropriate points of departure (POD) for each RfD. An uncertainty factor of 300 was applied to each POD to yield RfD values of 0.1, 0.04, and 0.03 mg/kg-d for short-term, subchronic, and chronic exposures, respectively. Because a chronic cancer bioassay for SAN Trimer in rats (NTP 2011a) does not provide evidence of carcinogenicity, a cancer risk assessment is not appropriate for this chemical. Potential health hazards to human health were assessed using a hazard index (HI) approach, which considers the ratio of exposure dose (i.e., average daily dose, mg/kg-d) to toxicity dose (RfD, mg/kg-d) for each scenario. All CTE and RME HI values are well below 1 (where the average daily dose is equivalent to the RfD), indicating that there is no concern for potential noncancer effects in exposed populations even under the conservative assumptions of this screening-level assessment. PMID:23030654

  19. Health effects of low-level ionising radiation: biological basis for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upton, A.C.

    1987-01-01

    The biological basis for risk assessment is discussed. The risks of carcinogenic effects, teratogenic effects, and genetic (heritable) effects are estimated to vary in proportion with the dose of radiation in the low-dose domain; however, the risks also appear to vary with the LET of the radiation, age at the time of irradiation, and other variables. Although the data suffice to place the risks in perspective with other hazards of modern life, further research to refine the reliability of the risk assessment is called for. (author)

  20. Halogenated and parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in vegetables: Levels, dietary intakes, and health risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Li, Chunmei; Jiao, Bining; Li, Qiwan; Su, Hang; Wang, Jing; Jin, Fen

    2018-03-01

    Halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HPAHs) are attracting increasing concern because of their greater toxicity than their corresponding parent PAHs. However, human exposure to HPAHs via food consumption is not fully understood. In this study, daily intake via vegetable ingestion of 11 HPAHs and 16 PAHs and subsequent cancer risk were assessed for population in Beijing. A total of 80 vegetable samples were purchased from markets, including five leafy vegetables and three root vegetables. The concentrations of total HPAHs (∑HPAHs) were 0.357-0.874ng/g in all vegetables, lower than that of total PAHs (∑PAHs, 10.6-47.4ng/g). ∑HPAHs and ∑PAHs concentrations in leafy vegetables were higher than those in root vegetables, suggesting that the atmospheric deposition might be the dominant source of PAHs and HPAHs in leafy vegetables. Among the HPAH congeners, 2-BrFle and 9-ClFle were the predominant compounds and frequently detected in the vegetable samples. HPAHs and PAHs were also found in certificated vegetables at the concentrations of 0.466-0.751ng/g and 10.6-38.9ng/g, respectively, which were lower than those in non-certificated vegetables except for spinach. For leafy vegetables from local farms, the ∑PAHs and ∑HPAHs levels in the rape and Chinese cabbage samples significantly decreased with increasing the distance away from the incineration plant. The incremental lifetime cancer risks of HPAHs were below the acceptable risk level (10 -6 ), suggesting that there might be little or no risk to consumers from these compounds in vegetables. For all population groups, children were the most sensitive population to PAHs and HPAHs, and their health issues should be paid more attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Method for Pedestrian Crossing Risk Assessment and Safety Level Determination: the Case Study of Tallinn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pashkevich, M.; Krasilnikova, A.; Antov, D.

    2016-07-01

    Pedestrians are a part of vulnerable road users which safety requires a special attention. Official statistics in Estonia from the last decade returns the following numbers: around 30 % of all road traffic accidents in the country were accidents with pedestrians, 32 % of all traffic fatalities were finished with pedestrian death. Pedestrian crossing has the biggest risk level between all kinds of pedestrian facilities, because it includes a direct conflict point between vehicle and pedestrian traffics. The article presents a method to assess risk of pedestrian crossing users and to determine safety level of this road infrastructure element. This approach is based on observation and collection of infrastructural as well as traffic data, which includes: (1) information about each pedestrian crossing facility, its location and state, (2) data about accidents with pedestrians and their features, (3) data from road traffic measurements. The main advantages of the described method are universality and comprehensiveness. The case study was done in Kristiine district of the city Tallinn, which was chosen as the most typical average district of Estonian capital. Results of this study are also presented in the article. (Author)

  2. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon levels and risk assessment for food from service facilities in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Shin-Woong; Jeong, Jun-Hyun; Her, Jae-Young; Kim, Mina K; Lee, Kwang-Geun

    2017-06-01

    In this study, levels of benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), dibenzo[a,h]anthracene, benzo[g,h,i]perylene and indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene in 412 food items collected from food service facilities in Korea were analysed. The concentrations of the eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranged 0.13-0.48 μg/kg. The concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene in all food samples were foods regulated by European Union legislation. PAH contents were employed to conduct exposure and risk assessment. The chronic daily intake of PAHs from 412 food samples was 5.48 × 10 -6 -4.70 ×x 10 -4  µg-TEQ BaP /kg/day with margins of exposure of 1.04 × 10 9 -1.16 × 10 11 .

  3. Ecological risk assessment of deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.R.; Lush, D.L.; Acton, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    Contaminant fate and transport models, radiological dosimetry models, chemical dose-response models and population dynamic models were used to estimate ecological risks to moose and brook trout populations arising from a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. Risks from potential contaminant releases were compared with risks from physical habitat alteration in constructing a repository and service community, and with risks from increased hunting and fish pressure in the area. For a reference environment typical of a proposed location somewhere in the Canadian Shield, preliminary results suggest that the population consequences of contaminant release will be minor relative to those of habitat alteration and natural resource use

  4. Exposure levels, environmental fate modelling and human health risk assessment of lindane in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adu-Kumi, S.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis discusses an innovative approach of combining chemical trace analysis including the use of 13 C-labelled isotopes as internal and recovery standards) with multi-media modelling for assessing health risks of Lindane which is a persistent organic pollutant (POP) and a commercial formulated insecticide also known as Gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH). Samples studied were background air, human breast milk, and edible fish (tilapia and catfish). The investigations focused on the exposure of the general population. For the first time levels and seasonal variation of Lindane, α-HCH and β-HCH in background air of Lake Bosumtwi, Kwabenya and East Legon in Ghana were studied with polyurethane foam based passive air samplers. Lindane (average concentration 53 pg m -3 ) was measured in all samples with (i) gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GC-MS) and (ii) gas chromatography-mass spectrometer operated in electron ionization mode (GC-EI-MS). Agricultural application and revolatilisation from soils were main primary and secondary sources of HCH releases. Levels and variation of Lindane, α-HCH and β-HCH in pooled and individual human breast milk samples collected from lactating mothers countrywide were determined using a high-resolution gas chromatography interfaced with a high-resolution gas chromatography interfaced with a high-resolution mass spectrometer (HRGC-HRMS). This constitutes the first comprehensive nationwide human breast milk study of assessing risks of HCHs for the general population of Ghana. Mothers were selected from three major cities (Accra, Kumasi and Tamale) and three rural communities (Ada, Jachie/Pramso and Tolon) representing the Southern, Middle and Northern sectors respectively. The results of the study showed that the general population of Ghana is widely exposed to HCHs although the current levels are generally low; and also suggest that the usage pattern and exposure levels of Lindane vary among the various regions in Ghana.

  5. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  6. A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colegrove, Amanda

    Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

  7. Assessment of Level of Risk in Decision-Making in Terms of Career Exploitation

    OpenAIRE

    Semenov, Aleksandr Sergeevich; Kuznetcov, Vladimir Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    When designing career plots the raw data are stochastic in nature. From the results of the determination of these initial data depends not only the final result of the design or evaluation, but also the feasibility of the development of the field. While there are significant errors associated with the probabilistic nature of the source data and measurement errors and errors of calculations. Risk assessment is an integral part of project documentation. The project decision-making occurs under ...

  8. Results of the Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of internal events for heavy water production reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tinnes, S.P.; Cramer, D.S.; Logan, V.E.; Topp, S.V.; Smith, J.A.; Brandyberry, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    A full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being performed for the Savannah River site (SRS) production reactors. The Level 1 PRA for the K Reactor has been completed and includes the assessment of reactor systems response to accidents and estimates of the severe core melt frequency (SCMF). The internal events spectrum includes those events related directly to plant systems and safety functions for which transients or failures may initiate an accident. The SRS PRA has three principal objectives: improved understanding of SRS reactor safety issues through discovery and understanding of the mechanisms involved. Improved risk management capability through tools for assessing the safety impact of both current standard operations and proposed revisions. A quantitative measure of the risks posed by SRS reactor operation to employees and the general public, to allow comparison with declared goals and other societal risks

  9. PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

  10. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  11. Results of the Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of internal events for heavy water production reactors (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tinnes, S.P.; Cramer, D.S.; Logan, V.E.; Topp, S.V.; Smith, J.A.; Brandyberry, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on a full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) production reactors. The Level 1 PRA for the K Reactor has been completed and includes the assessment of reactor systems response to accidents and estimates of the severe core melt frequency (SCMF). The internal events spectrum includes those events related directly to plant systems and safety functions for which transients or failures may initiate an accident

  12. Risk Assessment Using the Three Dimensions of Probability (Likelihood), Severity, and Level of Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clifford C.

    2011-01-01

    Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the least-well-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

  13. Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

  14. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  15. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  16. Information requirements for the probabilistic risk assessment of underground disposal of low level wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumerling, T.J.; Thompson, B.G.J.

    1987-01-01

    The UK Department of the Environment (DoE) will perform independent post-closure safety assessment of proposals for the disposal of low-level radioactive wastes in engineered facilities in shallow ground. In this paper, the DoE assessment criteria, methodology and modelling capabilities are outlined; the general characteristics of the information required are discussed; and the specific information needs, as presently perceived, are identified. It is concluded that: most of the data that can be obtained by direct means is provided by site investigations and research now in hand, although there may be uncertainty due to sparse regional data; some parameters can only be obtained by, or with the assistance of subjective judgment; the process of data reduction is not straight forward and adequate time must be allowed for this if a comprehensive and defensible assessment is to be constructed

  17. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

  18. Residue levels and risk assessment of pesticides in nuts of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yihua; Shen, Danyu; Li, Shiliang; Ni, Zhanglin; Ding, Ming; Ye, Caifen; Tang, Fubin

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide residue levels of three nuts (chestnut, walnut, pinenut) collected from seven main producing areas of China were investigated. Twenty-nine pesticides, including organophosphates (OPs), organochlorines (OCs), pyrethroids (PYs) and two fungicides (triadimefon and buprofezin) were analyzed by gas chromatography (GC). Four OPs (acephate, dimethoate, chlorpyrifos and parathion-methyl) were found in 11.4% samples, with the concentrations of 19.0 µg kg(-1) to 74.0 µg kg(-1). Six OCs (DDT, HCH, endosulfan, quintozene, aldrin and dieldrin) were found in 18.2% samples, with the concentrations of 2.0 µg kg(-1) to 65.7 µg kg(-1). Among OCs, p,p-DDE and α-HCH were the dominant isomer for DDT and HCH. Five PYs (fenpropathrin, fenvalerate, cypermethrin, bifenthrin and cyhalothrin) were found in 15.9% samples, with the concentrations of 2.5 µg kg(-1) to 433.0 µg kg(-1). Fenpropathrin was the most frequently detected pesticide. In addition, triadimefon and buprofezin were detected only in two samples. For the tested nuts, 25.0% samples with multiple residues (containing more than two pesticides) were noted, even up to 9.1% samples with five pesticide residues. The residue of 15.9% samples was higher than the maximum residue limits (MRLs) of China. The short-term risks for the tested nuts were below 1.2%, and the highest long-term risk was 12.58%. The cumulative risk (cHI) for the tested pesticides were 8.43% (OPs), 0.42% (OCs), 12.82% (PYs) and 0.15% (fungicides), respectively. The total cHI was 21.82%. There was no significant health risk for consumers via nuts consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Interest of comparative risk assessment in economic development and proposals on a regional level: a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouville, A.; Coulon, R.; Aigueperse, J.

    1983-01-01

    As major human activities develop, those responsible for orienting these activities and making decisions must take more and more account, notably due to pressure from the public, of risks likely to arise, together with other elements of choice such as technical, economic, social and political considerations. It is therefore essential to make an objective assessment of these risks to which individual are exposed naturally or because of their life styles. Because most decisions are made on a regional level and because it is also at this level that can be realistically defined the environmental characteristics, the way of life and the economic and social structure which determine the risks to which the regional population is exposed, it is on this scale that a comparative assessment is of maximum value. This assessment should be as exhaustive as possible and should take into account all the risks whether natural or artificial, and from whatever source (industrial, domestic, medical, etc.). It should take into account successively the exposure to various hazards, and the resulting consequences to health based on the choice of appropriate indicators and on available knowledge of exposure-effects relationships. Subjective aspects of risk perception should also be considered. A study program has been begun covering the region called the ''Grand Delta'' which includes the Rhone valley and its banks to the mediterraneen coast in the South East part of France [fr

  20. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  1. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Prioritizing Chemicals and Data Requirements for Screening-Level Exposure and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Trevor N.; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. PMID:23008278

  3. Prioritizing chemicals and data requirements for screening-level exposure and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S

    2012-11-01

    Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner.

  4. Mercury contamination in human hair and fish from Cambodia: levels, specific accumulation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusa, Tetsuro; Kunito, Takashi; Iwata, Hisato; Monirith, In; Tana, Touch Seang; Subramanian, Annamalai; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2005-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) concentrations in human hair and fish samples from Phnom Penh, Kien Svay, Tomnup Rolork and Batrong, Cambodia, collected in November 1999 and December 2000 were determined to understand the status of contamination, and age- and sex-dependent accumulation in humans and to assess the intake of mercury via fish consumption. Mercury concentrations in human hair ranged from 0.54 to 190 μg/g dry wt. About 3% of the samples contained Hg levels exceeding the no observed adverse effects level (NOAEL) of WHO (50 μg/g) and the levels in some hair samples of women also exceeded the NOAEL (10 μg/g) associated with fetus neurotoxicity. A weak but significant positive correlation was observed between age and Hg levels in hair of residents. Mercury concentrations in muscle of marine and freshwater fish from Cambodia ranged from <0.01 to 0.96 μg/g wet wt. Mercury intake rates were estimated on the basis of the Hg content in fish and daily fish consumption. Three samples of marine fish including sharp-tooth snapper and obtuse barracuda, and one sample of sharp-tooth snapper exceeded the guidelines by US EPA and by Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), respectively, which indicates that some fish specimens examined (9% and 3% for US EPA and JECFA guidelines, respectively) were hazardous for consumption at the ingestion rate of Cambodian people (32.6 g/day). It is suggested that fish is probably the main source of Hg for Cambodian people. However, extremely high Hg concentrations were observed in some individuals and could not be explained by Hg intake from fish consumption, indicating some other contamination sources of Hg in Cambodia. - A source other than fish may be responsible for high Hg in some Cambodians

  5. Risks assessment associated with the possibility of intrusion into the low and intermediate level waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didita, L.; Ilie, P.; Pavelescu, M.

    1997-01-01

    In post-closure performance assessment of low and intermediate level waste disposal facilities it is necessary to assess the individual risks associated with the possibility of intrusion into repository. Intruder induced disruptive events can potentially compromise the integrity of the disposal unit and result in exhumation of the waste and radionuclides migration into environment. In this way, the main routes of exposure are: -inhalation of radioactive materials by the intruder; - external gamma irradiation of the intruder, - long-term pathways resulting from the transfer of radioactive materials to the surface of the site. This paper describes the evaluation of conditional and absolute risks associated with each route of exposure as a function of time. To evaluate the risks, it is necessary to calculate the time-dependent activities of each nuclide considered. This is achieved by employing an analytic solution to the Bateman equation at specified times of evaluation. Conditional risks by inhalation, external exposure and long-term pathways and different modes of intrusion are evaluated on the basis of an annual probability of intrusion of unity. Absolute risks are calculated by scaling the user-supplied probabilities of intrusion at various times of evaluation. The evaluation of absolute risks by long-term exposure pathways involves an interpolation procedure in time. The calculations have been performed for the most important radionuclides present in low and intermediate wastes. (authors)

  6. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  7. Soil radioactivity levels, radiological maps and risk assessment for the state of Kuwait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alazemi, N; Bajoga, A D; Bradley, D A; Regan, P H; Shams, H

    2016-07-01

    An evaluation of the radioactivity levels associated with naturally occurring radioactive materials has been undertaken as part of a systematic study to provide a surface radiological map of the State of Kuwait. Soil samples from across Kuwait were collected, measured and analysed in the current work. These evaluations provided soil activity concentration levels for primordial radionuclides, specifically members of the (238)U and (232)Th decay chains and (40)K which. The (238)U and (232)Th chain radionuclides and (40)K activity concentration values ranged between 5.9 ↔ 32.3, 3.5 ↔ 27.3, and 74 ↔ 698 Bq/kg respectively. The evaluated average specific activity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K across all of the soil samples have mean values of 18, 15 and 385 Bq/kg respectively, all falling below the worldwide mean values of 35, 40 and 400 Bq/kg respectively. The radiological risk factors are associated with a mean of 33.16 ± 2.46 nG/h and 68.5 ± 5.09 Bq/kg for the external dose rate and Radium equivalent respectively. The measured annual dose rates for all samples gives rise to a mean value of 40.8 ± 3.0 μSv/y while the internal and internal hazard indices have been found to be 0.23 ± 0.02 and 0.19 ± 0.01 respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Remote Sensing of Wildland Fire-Induced Risk Assessment at the Community Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K

    2018-05-15

    Wildland fires are some of the critical natural hazards that pose a significant threat to the communities located in the vicinity of forested/vegetated areas. In this paper, our overall objective was to study the structural damages due to the 2016 Horse River Fire (HRF) that happened in Fort McMurray (Alberta, Canada) by employing primarily very high spatial resolution optical satellite data, i.e., WorldView-2. Thus, our activities included the: (i) estimation of the structural damages; and (ii) delineation of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and its associated buffers at certain intervals, and their utilization in assessing potential risks. Our proposed method of remote sensing-based estimates of the number of structural damages was compared with the ground-based information available from the Planning and Development Recovery Committee Task Force of Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB); and found a strong linear relationship (i.e., r² value of 0.97 with a slope of 0.97). Upon delineating the WUI and its associated buffer zones at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 70 m and 100 m distances; we found existence of vegetation within the 30 m buffers from the WUI for all of the damaged structures. In addition, we noticed that the relevant authorities had removed vegetation in some areas between 30 m and 70 m buffers from the WUI, which was proven to be effective in order to protect the structures in the adjacent communities. Furthermore, we mapped the wildland fire-induced vulnerable areas upon considering the WUI and its associated buffers. Our analysis revealed that approximately 30% of the areas within the buffer zones of 10 m and 30 m were vulnerable due to the presence of vegetation; in which, approximately 7% were burned during the 2016 HRF event that led the structural damages. Consequently, we suggest to remove the existing vegetation within these critical zones and also monitor the region at a regular interval in order to reduce the wildland fire-induced risk.

  9. Pollution level and health risk assessment of road dust from Islamabad expressway, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faiz, Y.; Siddique, N.

    2012-01-01

    Thirteen road dust and four soil samples were analyzed using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) to determine the elemental composition of road dust collected from Islamabad Expressway. The amounts of most of the elements determined were generally in the lower range of the global data with the exception of Ce, Nd, Sn and Zr which were measured at higher concentrations in Islamabad. Pollution parameters and indicators such as Enrichment Factors (EFs), Pollution Load Index (PLI), Geo accumulation Index (Igeo), Pollution Index (PI) and Integrated Pollution Index (IPI) showed that the area around Islamabad Expressway is low to moderately polluted especially by elements such as Mg and Sb. The IPI of the elements was found to vary in the order; Mg>Sb>Cu>Sr Pb>Ga>Na >Sn Zn>Yb>Se>Hf. Elemental health risk was assessed through dose calculations for carcinogenic and non carcinogenic metals; and by the determination of LADD (lifetime average daily dose). The carcinogenic metals studied showed the following variation in their LADD values; Cr>Ni>Co>Cd>As. Dose calculations for non-cancerous and cancerous elements showed the data obtained to lie within the safe threshold of 10 3 10 6 mg kg/sup -1/ day/sup -1/ for most elements. The soil based elements Al, Fe, K, Mg, Na and Ti were the exception and originated from the exposed soil around the highway. Moreover highest Hazard Index (HI) was found to be associated with the presence of Al, Cr, Pb and V in road dust showing soil, transport and industry to be the major sources of road dust. (orig./A.B.)

  10. PRESTO-II, Low Level Radioactive Waste Transport and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: PRESTO-II evaluates possible health effects from shallow-land and waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non- site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population fora 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach developed by EPA (CCC-422/RADRISK). The DARTAB model is used in modified form to generate human health risk estimates from radionuclide concentrations and intake values. 2 - Method of solution: PRESTO-II tracks radionuclide transport through surface and subsurface pathways and human exposures through external exposure, inhalation, and ingestion with a resolution of 1 y. The methodology is mechanistic, and physical transport processes are modeled separately and in detail. PRESTO-II computes infiltration through the trench cap from experimentally determined permeability and hourly precipitation values. Watershed infiltration is determined using a parametric evapotranspiration equation requiring input values for several site variables. A finite element approach is used to compute trench water balance. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PRESTO-II model is most appropriately used as a

  11. The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R.; Salice, Christopher J.; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g. biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem, and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study, and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

  12. The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Salice, Christopher J; Nisbet, Roger M

    2016-10-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g., biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

  13. Pollution level and human health risk assessment of some pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in Nantong of Southeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Na Wang; Li Yi; Lili Shi; Deyang Kong; Daoji Cai; Donghua Wang; Zhengjun Shan

    2012-01-01

    Food consumption is one of the key exposure routes of humans to contaminants.This article evaluated the residue levels of 51 pesticides and 16 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in selected fish and food items which were commonly consumed in the Nantong area of Jiangsu Province,Southeast China.The 51 pesticides and 16 PCBs were analyzed by highly sensitive gas chromatographytandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS).The results showed that organochlorine pesticides such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs),hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs),hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and mirex and other pesticides including chlorpyrifos,pyrethroid pesticides,metolachlor,pyridaben and trifluralin were frequently detected in the samples,which was consistent with the accumulation level and characteristics of these toxic chemicals in human adipose tissue of people living in Nantong.Meanwhile,correlation of the residue level of toxic chemicals with their physical chemical properties and historic use pattern in Nantong area was observed.Combined with dietary survey results at the same sampling locations,human health risk assessment of ingestion through the dietary route was performed.The results suggested that the non-cancer risks of the chemicals investigated can be considered negligible in the Nantong area,however,the cancer risks from lifetime dietary exposure to DDTs and HCB have exceeded the acceptable levels.

  14. Residue Levels and Risk Assessment of Pesticides in Pistachio Nuts in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh Emami

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pistachio is one of the main nutrients, not only as a strategic crop but also as a main type of nut, in Iranians’ food cycle. The aim of this study was to measure the relative safety of Iranian pistachio based on the standard pesticide’s residue limits, which should be monitored and assessed in the cultivation of pistachio in order to confirm its public health. Methods: Fifty samples of pistachios of different brands were collected from Tehran markets in 2015. QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe sampling method was used in order to determine the pesticide’s residue in the pistachio nuts by Gas chromatography/Mass spectrometry (GC/MS.The method was validated with related parameters. Recovery took place at five concentration rates (n=3 ranging from 81.40% to 93.08% with the majority of RelativeStandard Deviation being lower than 20%. Limits of detection and quantification for all the pesticides were 2µg/kg and10µg/kg, respectively. The validated method seemed to be appropriate for the analysis of pesticide’s residue in pistachio nuts. Results: Identified pesticides included Fenitrothion, Carbaryl and Diazinon. Detectable pesticide’s residue existed in 10% (5 samples of the samples. Conclusion: All the results were compared with the Iran’s National Standards and the European Maximum Residue Limits. As compared to the acceptable daily intake, the calculated daily intake of each pesticide was much lower than the standard level, which could not cause any public health problem.

  15. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  16. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  17. Estrogenic activity, chemical levels and health risk assessment of municipal distribution point water from Pretoria and Cape Town, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zijl, Magdalena Catherina; Aneck-Hahn, Natalie Hildegard; Swart, Pieter; Hayward, Stefan; Genthe, Bettina; De Jager, Christiaan

    2017-11-01

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are ubiquitous in the environment and have been detected in drinking water from various countries. Although various water treatment processes can remove EDCs, chemicals can also migrate from pipes that transport water and contaminate drinking water. This study investigated the estrogenic activity in drinking water from various distribution points in Pretoria (City of Tshwane) (n = 40) and Cape Town (n = 40), South Africa, using the recombinant yeast estrogen screen (YES) and the T47D-KBluc reporter gene assay. The samples were collected seasonally over four sampling periods. The samples were also analysed for bisphenol A (BPA), nonylphenol (NP), di(2-ethylhexyl) adipate (DEHA), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), diisononylphthalate (DINP), 17β-estradiol (E 2 ), estrone (E 1 ) and ethynylestradiol (EE 2 ) using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrophotometry (UPLC-MS/MS). This was followed by a scenario based health risk assessment to assess the carcinogenic and toxic human health risks associated with the consumption of distribution point water. None of the water extracts from the distribution points were above the detection limit in the YES bioassay, but the EEq values ranged from 0.002 to 0.114 ng/L using the T47D-KBluc bioassay. BPA, DEHA, DBP, DEHP, DINP E 1 , E 2, and EE 2 were detected in distribution point water samples. NP was below the detection limit for all the samples. The estrogenic activity and levels of target chemicals were comparable to the levels found in other countries. Overall the health risk assessment revealed acceptable health and carcinogenic risks associated with the consumption of distribution point water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poerbandono

    2017-07-01

    This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

  19. Radiation in complex exposure situations. Assessing health risks at low levels from concomitant exposures to radiation and chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hornhardt, S.; Jung, T.; Burkart, W.

    2000-01-01

    Health effects from exposures to ionizing radiation are in general the result of complex multi-step reaction chains involving changes and responses on the level of molecules, cells, tissues and organisms. In environmental low dose exposure situations ionizing radiation only contributes a small fraction to the life-long attack on DNA by other exogenous and endogenous genotoxins. Nevertheless, efforts to assess and quantify deleterious effects at low exposure levels are directed mainly towards radiation as a single isolated agent, and rarely towards the concomitant presence of other natural and anthropogenic toxicants. Only these combined exposures may lead to observable health risk effects. In addition they might differ from those expected from simple addition of the individual risks due to interaction. The existing data base on combined effects is rudimentary, mainly descriptive and rarely covers exposure ranges large enough to make direct inferences to present day low dose exposure situations. Therefore, any risk assessment will have to consider the question whether combined effects, i.e. interaction between two or more agents will influence the health outcome from specific exposure situations in such a way that predictions derived from simple standard exposure situations would have to be revised. In view of the multitude of possible interactions between the large number of potentially harmful agents in the human environment, descriptive approaches will have to be supplemented by the use of mechanistic models for critical health endpoints such as cancer. Agents will have to be grouped depending on their physical or chemical mode of action at the molecular and cellular level, to generalize and predict the outcome of combined exposures at low exposure levels and the possibility of interactions. (author)

  20. Towards quantitave ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de P.; Tamis, J.E.; Foekema, E.M.; Klok, T.C.; Murk, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 4 Appendix C - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  3. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 18 Appendix Q - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N A; Barnett, C L; Hosseini, A; Brown, J E; Cailes, C; Copplestone, D; Beaugelin-Seiller, K

    2010-01-01

    A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K d ) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

  8. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  9. Risk-informed assessment of radionuclide release from dissolution of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste glass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Tae M., E-mail: tae.ahn@nrc.gov

    2017-06-15

    Highlights: • Dissolution of HLW waste form was assessed with long-term risk informed approach. • The radionuclide release rate decreases with time from the initial release rate. • Fast release radionuclides can be dispersed with discrete container failure time. • Fast release radionuclides can be restricted by container opening area. • Dissolved radionuclides may be further sequestered by sorption or others means. - Abstract: This paper aims to detail the different parameters to be considered for use in an assessment of radionuclide release. The dissolution of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste glass was considered for risk and performance insights in a generic disposal system for more than 100,000 years. The probabilistic performance assessment includes the waste form, container, geology, and hydrology. Based on the author’s previous extended work and data from the literature, this paper presents more detailed specific cases of (1) the time dependence of radionuclide release, (2) radionuclide release coupled with container failure (rate-limiting process), (3) radionuclide release through the opening area of the container and cladding, and (4) sequestration of radionuclides in the near field after container failure. These cases are better understood for risk and performance insights. The dissolved amount of waste form is not linear with time but is higher at first. The radionuclide release rate from waste form dissolution can be constrained by container failure time. The partial opening area of the container surface may decrease radionuclide release. Radionuclides sequestered by various chemical reactions in the near field of a failed container may become stable with time as the radiation level decreases with time.

  10. Heavy metal levels in kiwifruit orchard soils and trees and its potential health risk assessment in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jing; Yue, Tianli; Li, Xiaotong; Yuan, Yahong

    2016-07-01

    Concentrations of five heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb) in orchard soils and kiwifruit tissues (root, twig, leave, fruit) collected from Shaanxi province in China were measured, and the potential health risk for human through the fruit consumption was assessed. The orchard soils were in no pollution for Cr, Cu, Hg, and Pb, with their pollution index (PI) ≤1, while 10.0 % of the soil samples were under Cd contamination. Furthermore, kiwifruit tended to have a higher Cd and Hg accumulation (as indicated by Biological Accumulation Coefficient) from soil and have a higher Cu and Hg translocation (as reflected by Biological Transfer Coefficient) to aboveground parts. From the human health point of view, the DIM and HRI values for all the fruit samples were within the safe limits, while for Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb, about 22.5, 12.5, 52.5, 15.0, and 47.5 % of the fruit samples exceeded the national maximum permissible levels, respectively. These results showed that, although there was no possible health risk to consumers due to intake of studied kiwifruit fruits under the current consumption rate, the regular survey of heavy metal pollution levels should be performed for the kiwifruit in Shaanxi province and a strict management program should be established to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in fruit production in order to prevent the potential health risk.

  11. Offshore dredger sound: source levels, sound maps and risk assessment (abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, C.A.F. de; Ainslie, M.A.; Heinis, F.; Janmaat, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Port of Rotterdam is expanding to meet the growing demand to accommodate large cargo vessels. One of the licensing conditions was the monitoring of the underwater sound produced during its construction, with an emphasis on the establishment of acoustic source levels of the Trailing Suction

  12. Environmental Health Risk Communication: Assessing Levels of Fish-Consumption Literacy among Selected Southeast Asians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut; Getz, Thomas D.; Zarcadoolas, Christina; Panzara, Anthony D.; Esposito, Valerie; Wodika, Alicia B.; Caron, Colleen; Migliore, Beverly; Quilliam, Daniela N.

    2010-01-01

    Limited resources have led to a lack of comprehensive state outreach strategies that are geared for non-English speaking constituencies. The investigators worked with Southeast Asian communities in Rhode Island to determine perceptions and levels of trust with various health authorities providing health messaging about fish-consumption practices.…

  13. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alajlouni, Abdul; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J.; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebas; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment

  14. Assessing the Levels and Health Risk of Atmospheric Formaldehyde in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

    OpenAIRE

    Atef M.F. Mohammed; Essam A. Morsy; Turki M. Habeebullah; Said Munir

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric Formaldehyde (HCHO) was monitored in four sites on the Holy Mosque of Makkah, Saudi Arabia during August, 2013. The daily mean concentrations of HCHO were ranged from 1.09-18.92 g/m3. The levels of HCHO were significantly higher than the permissible exposure limit (0.042 μg/m3) of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). However, it were not exceeded the recommended exposure limit of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (20 μg/m3) and Egyptian...

  15. Risk assessment based on urinary bisphenol A levels in the general Korean population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Hwang, Myung-Sil, E-mail: hwang1963@korea.kr; Ko, Ahra; Jeong, Da-Hyun; Lee, Jung-Mi; Moon, Guiim; Lee, Kwang-Soo; Kho, Young-Ho; Shin, Min-Ki; Lee, Hee-Seok; Kang, Hui-Seung; Suh, Jin-Hyang; Hwang, In-Gyun, E-mail: inghwang@korea.kr

    2016-10-15

    Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high-volume industrial chemical used in the global production of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins, which are used in food and drink containers, such as tableware (plates and mugs). Due to its broad applications, BPA has been detected in human blood, urine and breast milk as well as environmental substances, including water, indoor and outdoor air, and dust. Indeed, exposure to high concentrations of BPA can result in a variety of harmful effects, including reproductive toxicity, through a mechanism of endocrine disruption. Our comparison of reported BPA urinary concentrations among different countries revealed that exposures in Korea may be higher than those in other Asian countries and North America, but lower than or similar to those in European countries. The current study included a total of 2044 eligible subjects of all ages. The subjects were evenly divided between males and females (48.58% and 51.42%, respectively). The geometric mean (GM) of pre-adjusted (adjusted) urinary BPA concentrations was 1.83 μg/L (2.01 μg/g creatinine) for subjects of all ages, and there was no statistically difference in BPA concentrations between males (1.90 μg/L, 1.87 μg/g creatinine) and females (1.76 μg/L, 2.16 μg/g creatinine). Multiple regression analysis revealed only one positive association between creatinine pre-adjusted urinary BPA concentration and age (β=−0.0868, p<0.001). The 95th percentile levels of 24-hour recall (HR), food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) and estimated daily intake (EDI) through urinary BPA concentrations were 0.14, 0.13, and 0.22 μg/kg bw/day, respectively. According to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS), a tolerable daily intake (tDI) of 20 μg/kg bw/day was established for BPA from the available toxicological data. Recently, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) established a temporary TDI of 4 μg/kg bw/day based on current toxicological data. By comparing these TDIs with subjects

  16. Risk assessment based on urinary bisphenol A levels in the general Korean population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Ko, Ahra; Jeong, Da-Hyun; Lee, Jung-Mi; Moon, Guiim; Lee, Kwang-Soo; Kho, Young-Ho; Shin, Min-Ki; Lee, Hee-Seok; Kang, Hui-Seung; Suh, Jin-Hyang; Hwang, In-Gyun

    2016-01-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high-volume industrial chemical used in the global production of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins, which are used in food and drink containers, such as tableware (plates and mugs). Due to its broad applications, BPA has been detected in human blood, urine and breast milk as well as environmental substances, including water, indoor and outdoor air, and dust. Indeed, exposure to high concentrations of BPA can result in a variety of harmful effects, including reproductive toxicity, through a mechanism of endocrine disruption. Our comparison of reported BPA urinary concentrations among different countries revealed that exposures in Korea may be higher than those in other Asian countries and North America, but lower than or similar to those in European countries. The current study included a total of 2044 eligible subjects of all ages. The subjects were evenly divided between males and females (48.58% and 51.42%, respectively). The geometric mean (GM) of pre-adjusted (adjusted) urinary BPA concentrations was 1.83 μg/L (2.01 μg/g creatinine) for subjects of all ages, and there was no statistically difference in BPA concentrations between males (1.90 μg/L, 1.87 μg/g creatinine) and females (1.76 μg/L, 2.16 μg/g creatinine). Multiple regression analysis revealed only one positive association between creatinine pre-adjusted urinary BPA concentration and age (β=−0.0868, p<0.001). The 95th percentile levels of 24-hour recall (HR), food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) and estimated daily intake (EDI) through urinary BPA concentrations were 0.14, 0.13, and 0.22 μg/kg bw/day, respectively. According to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS), a tolerable daily intake (tDI) of 20 μg/kg bw/day was established for BPA from the available toxicological data. Recently, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) established a temporary TDI of 4 μg/kg bw/day based on current toxicological data. By comparing these TDIs with subjects

  17. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report.

  18. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report

  19. Assessing the Levels and Health Risk of Atmospheric Formaldehyde in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atef M.F. Mohammed

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric Formaldehyde (HCHO was monitored in four sites on the Holy Mosque of Makkah, Saudi Arabia during August, 2013. The daily mean concentrations of HCHO were ranged from 1.09-18.92 g/m3. The levels of HCHO were significantly higher than the permissible exposure limit (0.042 μg/m3 of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA. However, it were not exceeded the recommended exposure limit of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (20 μg/m3 and Egyptian law 4/1994 (0.37 mg/m3. Spatial variations of HCHO concentrations most probably due to variations in local meteorology and traffic flow, which was considered the main source of emissions. Exposure doses for various age groups were estimated, which ranged from 0.000004 to 0.000259 mg/kg/day. Maximum exposure dose was recorded for boys (age 12-14 years and children (6-8 years and minimum for females (19-65 years.

  20. BURYIT/ANALYZ: a computer package for assessment of radiological risk of low-level radioactive waste land disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Cox, N.D.; Atwood, C.L.

    1984-11-01

    This report is a user's manual for a partially completed code for risk assessment of a low-level waste shallow-land burial site, to be used in the licensing of burial sites. This code is intended as a tool to be used for considering nuclide transport mechanisms, including atmospheric, groundwater, erosion, and infiltration to an underlying aquifer. It also calculates doses to individuals and the population through direct exposure, inhalation, and ingestion. The methodology of the risk assessment is based primarily on the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The parameters of a model for predicting dose commitment due to a release are treated as statistical variables in order to compute statistical distributions for various dose commitment contributions. The likelihood of a release is also accounted for by statistically evaluating the arithmetic product of the dose commitment distributions with the probability of release occurrence. An example is given using the atmospheric transport pathway as modeled by a code called BURYIT. The framework for using other release pathways is described in this manual. Information on parameter uncertainties, reference site characteristics, and probabilities of release events is included

  1. Determination of acrylamide levels in potato crisps and other snacks and exposure risk assessment through a Margin of Exposure approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Francesco; Nardone, Antonio; Fasano, Evelina; Triassi, Maria; Cirillo, Teresa

    2017-10-01

    Potato crisps, corn-based extruded snacks and other savoury snacks are very popular products especially among younger generations. These products could be a potential source of acrylamide (AA), a toxic compound which could develop during frying and baking processes. The purpose of this study was the assessment of the dietary intake to AA across six groups of consumers divided according to age through the consumption of potato crisps and other snacks, in order to eventually evaluate the margin of exposure (MOE) related to neurotoxic and carcinogenic critical endpoints. Different brands of potato crisps and other popular snacks were analyzed through a matrix solid-phase dispersion method followed by a bromination step and GC-MS quantification. The concentration of detected AA ranged from 21 to 3444 ng g - 1 and the highest level occurred in potato crisps samples which showed a median value of 968 ng g - 1 . The risk characterization through MOE assessment revealed that five out of six consumers groups showed higher exposure values associated with an augmented carcinogenic risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. N-alkylvaline levels in globin as a new type of biomarker in risk assessment of alkylating agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewalter, J

    1996-01-01

    Adducts with the N-terminal valine of erythrocyte globin can serve as individual biomarkers of systemic and cellular exposure to endogenous and exogenous alkylating agents. In contrast to "detoxification markers" of this kind of mecapturic acids derived from alkylation of glutathione, individual N-alkylations of valine in globin reflect the formally "toxifying" part of the stress due to alkylating agents transformed into the ultimate toxicant. Thus, in contrast to the traditional methods of biological monitoring this approach enables a better evaluation of systemic exposure to reactive agents, adapted more sensibly to the exposure situation over the whole life span of erythrocytes, and it can serve as a specific biomarker of exposure for the purpose of health surveillance in occupational medicine. An individual evaluation of exposures in comparison with the range of corresponding background levels is discussed from the point of view of supplementary risk assessment in medical surveillance of occupationally exposed persons.

  3. Replacing fish meal by food waste in feed pellets to culture lower trophic level fish containing acceptable levels of organochlorine pesticides: health risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhang; Mo, Wing-Yin; Man, Yu-Bon; Nie, Xiang-Ping; Li, Kai-Bing; Wong, Ming-Hung

    2014-12-01

    The present study used food waste (collected from local hotels and restaurants) feed pellets in polyculture of low-trophic level fish [bighead (Aristichtys nobilis), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus), and mud carp (Cirrhina molitorella)] aiming at producing safe and quality products for local consumption. The results indicated that grass carp (hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) waste feed pellets were relatively free of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The experimental ponds (water and sediment) were relatively free of OCPs, lowering the possibility of biomagnification of OCPs in the food chains within the ponds. The raw concentrations of OCPs extracted from the fish were not in the bioavailable form, which would ultimately reach bloodstream and exert adverse effects on human body. Health risk assessments based on digestible concentrations are commonly regarded as a more accurate method. The results of health risk assessments based on raw and digestible concentrations showed that the fish fed with food waste feed pellets were safe for consumption from the OCP perspective. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  5. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  6. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  7. The development by means of trial assessments, of a procedure for radiological risk assessment of underground disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, B.G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Seven trials are outlined showing the development and testing of a procedure based upon pra using Monte Carlo simulators, to assess post closure risks from the underground disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. The PRA method is found to be more justifiable than the use of 'best estimates'. Problems of accounting for long-term environmental changes and of future human intrusions are discussed. The importance of achieving statistical convergence within practical time scales and resources and of accounting for the influence of different sources of systematic bias is emphasised. (orig.)

  8. Simulation to aid in interpreting biological relevance and setting of population-level protection goals for risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Christopher John; Luttik, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Specific protection goals (SPGs) comprise an explicit expression of the environmental components that need protection and the maximum impacts that can be tolerated. SPGs are set by risk managers and are typically based on protecting populations or functions. However, the measurable endpoints available to risk managers, at least for vertebrates, are typically laboratory tests. We demonstrate, using the example of eggshell thinning in skylarks, how simulation can be used to place laboratory endpoints in context of population-level effects as an aid to setting the SPGs. We develop explanatory scenarios investigating the impact of different assumptions of eggshell thinning on skylark population size, density and distribution in 10 Danish landscapes, chosen to represent the range of typical Danish agricultural conditions. Landscape and timing of application of the pesticide were found to be the most critical factors to consider in the impact assessment. Consequently, a regulatory scenario of monoculture spring barley with an early spray treatment eliciting the eggshell thinning effect was applied using concentrations eliciting effects of zero to 100% in steps of 5%. Setting the SPGs requires balancing scientific, social and political realities. However, the provision of clear and detailed options such as those from comprehensive simulation results can inform the decision process by improving transparency and by putting the more abstract testing data into the context of real-world impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  10. Guidelines on the scope, content, and use of comprehensive risk assessment in the management of high-level nuclear waste transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golding, D.; White, A.

    1990-12-01

    This report discusses the scope of risk assessment strategies in the management of the transport of high-level radioactive wastes. In spite of the shortcomings of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA), the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended this as the preferred methodology to assess the risks of high level nuclear waste (HLNW) transportation. A PRA also will need to heed the lessons learned from the development and application of PRA elsewhere, such as in the nuclear power industry. A set of guidelines will aid this endeavor by outlining the appropriate scope, content, and use of a risk assessment which is more responsive to the uncertainties, human-technical interactions, social forces, and iterative relationship with risk management strategies, than traditional PRAS. This more expansive definition, which encompasses but is not totally reliant on rigorous data requirements and quantitative probability estimates, we term Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA) Guidelines will be developed in three areas: the limitations of existing methodologies and suggested modifications; CRA as part of a flexible, effective, adaptive risk management system for HLNW transportation; and, the use of CRA in risk communication

  11. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  12. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  14. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  15. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  16. Methods for assessing the awareness level about hiv infection risk factor among students of the Khabarovsk Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.O. Taenkova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available To prevent the social diseases, including HIV infection – is one of the high-priority tasks of the public health. To assess the awareness level among the students of the Khabarovsk Krai in the age of 17–20 years about the risk factors and the HIV transmission ways, the special investigation has been held in 2016. The method of selection of respondents was random. The sampling included the first-year students of two universities and one college in the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur (120 pers. and two high schools and college in Khabarovsk (100 pers.. The average age of respondents was 19.2 ± 1.04 years. The distribution by sex: men – 33 ± 3.17 %, women – 67 ± 3.17 %. The comparison of the data of the previous years (2008, 2012 and the study in 2016 confirmed that the majority (92 ± 1.5 % of the surveyed young adults in general are well-informed about HIV, sexual and parenteral routes of transmission. However, in recent years, the share of those who consider the possibility of HIV transmission through kisses, bites of blood-sucking or by sharing a meal. The performed studies have confirmed the tendency of the younger generation to the risky behavior. Their search for novelty and the thrills can be traditionally considered to be a contributing factor to the experiments with psychoactive substances and early initiation of sexual relations. The conducted analysis has showed the possibility of using the various forms and methods of youth behavior research. The study has revealed a certain potential for preventive planning of primary prevention of HIV infection. The obtained results have demonstrated that for the effective containment of the HIV epidemic it is necessary to carry out continuous risk monitoring system and preventive work among all young people, not only among the vulnerable groups.

  17. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  18. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  19. A multi-region approach to assessing fiscal and farm level consequences of government support for farm risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Cooper

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2014 U.S. Farm Act has new programs for providing producers with commodity support payments covering “shallow losses” in revenue. We develop an approach to examine the sensitivity of the farmer’s downside risk protection to marginal changes in the deductible in shallow loss program scenarios. The copula approach we use simultaneously considers price and yield correlation across all U.S. counties producing several major field crops. We find that average payments under the shallow loss program scenarios are elastic with respect to the program’s payment coverage rate. To empirically assess where shallow loss is likely to most benefit producers, we map at the county level the ratios of expected shallow loss payments to crop insurance premiums for corn, soybeans, cotton, and winter wheat. As tail dependencies among individual crop yield densities may vary spatially, we propose a method for grouping counties in a t-copula that allows for heterogeneity in tail dependencies.

  20. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  1. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  2. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  3. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  4. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  5. Scaling up from an individual to a population-level assessment for risks of pesticides to threatened and endangered birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the National Marine Fisheries Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is currently developing a methodology to assess the risks of pesticides to federally-listed threatened and endangered species. In thi...

  6. Correlation of Estradiol Serum Levels with Classification of Osteoporosis Risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in Menopause Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maya Puspita

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In postmenopausal women, decreasing estrogen levels is a marker of ovarian dysfunction. Hypoestrogenic state has known increasing the risk of osteoporosis. Objective: To determine the correlation between estradiol serum levels with classification of osteoporosis risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in menopausal women. Methods: This study was case series study which examined estradiol serum in menopausal women by ELISA and assess the osteoporosis risk using osteoporosis risk classification OSTA. Total 47 samples was collected at Dr. H.Adam malik, dr. Pirngadi, and RSU Networking in Medan. This research was conducted from May to December 2016. Data were statistically analyzed, and presented with Spearman test. Results: In this study, we found the mean levels of estradiol in menopausal women was 18.62 ± 16.85 ng / ml with OSTA osteoporosis risk score of 2.09 ± 2.45. There was a significant positive correlation between estradiol and risk of osteoporosis OSTA with correlation coefficient r = 0.825 and p <0.05. Conclusion: There is a strong positive correlation between serum levels of estradiol with OSTA osteoporosis risk assessment in menopausal women.

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

    2017-09-01

    Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  9. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  10. Are Bavarian Forests (southern Germany) at risk from ground-level ozone? Assessment using exposure and flux based ozone indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumgarten, Manuela; Huber, Christian; Bueker, Patrick; Emberson, Lisa; Dietrich, Hans-Peter; Nunn, Angela J.; Heerdt, Christian; Beudert, Burkhard; Matyssek, Rainer

    2009-01-01

    Exposure and flux-based indices of O 3 risk were compared, at 19 forest locations across Bavaria in southern Germany from 2002 to 2005; leaf symptoms on mature beech trees found at these locations were also examined for O 3 injury. O 3 flux modelling was performed using continuously recorded O 3 concentrations in combination with meteorological and soil moisture data collected from Level II forest sites. O 3 measurements at nearby rural open-field sites proved appropriate as surrogates in cases where O 3 data were lacking at forest sites (with altitude-dependent average differences of about 10% between O 3 concentrations). Operational thresholds of biomass loss for both O 3 indices were exceeded at the majority of the forest locations, suggesting similar risk under long-term average climate conditions. However, exposure-based indices estimated higher O 3 risk during dry years as compared to the flux-based approach. In comparison, minor O 3 -like leaf injury symptoms were detected only at a few of the forest sites investigated. Relationships between flux-based risk thresholds and tree response need to be established for mature forest stands for validation of predicted growth reductions under the prevailing O 3 regimes. - Exposure- and flux-based ozone indices suggest Bavarian forests to be at risk from ozone; the flux-based index offers a means of incorporating stand-specific and ecological variables that influence risk.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  12. Residual levels of rare earth elements in freshwater and marine fish and their health risk assessment from Shandong, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Luping; Wang, Xining; Nie, Hongqian; Shao, Lijun; Wang, Guoling; Liu, Yongjun

    2016-01-01

    The total concentrations of rare earth elements (ΣREE) were quantified in 251 samples from 10 common species of freshwater and marine fish in seventeen cities of Shandong, China. ΣREE obtained from the freshwater fish ranged from 34.0 to 37.9 ngg −1 (wet weight) and marine fish from 12.7 to 37.6 ngg −1 . The ratio of LREE to HREE was 13.7:1 and 10:1 for freshwater and marine fish, respectively. This suggests that freshwater fish exhibit greater REE concentrations than marine fish and the biological effects of LREE are higher than HREE. Results revealed a similar REE distribution pattern between those fish and coastal sediments, abiding the “abundance law”. The health risk assessment demonstrated the EDIs of REEs in fish were significantly lower than the ADI, indicating that the consumption of these fish presents little risk to human health. - Highlights: •Concentrations of rare earth elements in freshwater and marine fishes from the coastlines of Shandong, China are reported. •Statistical analysis and comparison indicates that freshwater fishes exhibit greater REE concentrations than marine fishes. •A similar REE distribution pattern was found between those of fish and coastal sediments, abiding the "abundance law". •Health risk assessment demonstrated that consuming fish is presently at little risk to human health.

  13. Risk assessment strategies as a tool in the application of the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP) and Food Safety Objective (FSO) by risk managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkogka, E; Reij, M W; Gorris, L G M; Zwietering, M H

    2013-10-01

    In the course of the last decade, the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), the Food Safety Objective (FSO) and their associated metrics have been proposed by the World Trade Organization and Codex Alimentarius as a means for competent authorities to ultimately translate governmental public health policy regarding food safety into risk-based targets for the food industry. The industry needs to meet these targets through the effective choice of control measures that are part of its operational food safety management system. The aim of this study was to put the practical application of ALOP and FSO to the test in the case of Salmonella in chicken meat in the Netherlands. Two different risk assessment approaches were applied to derive potential ALOP and FSO values, a 'top-down' approach based on epidemiological data and a 'bottom-up' approach based on food supply chain data. To this end, two stochastic models specific to the Dutch situation were built. Comparisons between 23 countries in Europe were also made using the top-down model. The mean estimated current Level Of Protection values were similar for the two approaches applied, with the bottom-up model yielding 87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year (95% CI: 0.03, 904) and the top-down model 71 (95% CI: 9.9, 155). The estimated FSO values on the other hand were considerably different with the mean 'top down' FSO being -4.6 log CFU/g (95% CI: -5.4, -4.1) and the mean 'bottom-up' FSO -6.0 log CFU/g (95% CI: -8.1, -2.9) reflecting major differences in the output distributions of this parameter obtained with the two approaches. Significant differences were observed between current LOP values for different EU countries, although it was not clear whether this was due to actual differences in the factors influencing the risk of salmonellosis or due to the quality of the available data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels during an assessment procedure correlate differently with risk-taking measures in male and female police recruits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruud eVan Den Bos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent laboratory studies have shown that men display more risk-taking behaviour in decision-making tasks following stress, whilst women are more risk-aversive or become more task-focussed. In addition, these studies have shown that sex differences are related to levels of the stress hormone cortisol (indicative of activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical-axis: the higher the levels of cortisol the more risk-taking behaviour is shown by men, whereas women generally display more risk-aversive or task-focussed behaviour following higher levels of cortisol. Here, we assessed whether such relationships hold outside the laboratory, correlating levels of cortisol obtained during a job-related assessment procedure with decision-making parameters in the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT in male and female police recruits. The CGT allows for discriminating different aspects of reward-based decision-making. In addition, we correlated levels of alpha-amylase (indicative for activation of the sympatho-adrenomedullary-axis and decision-making parameters. In line with earlier studies men and women only differed in risk-adjustment in the CGT. Salivary cortisol levels correlated positively and strongly with risk-taking measures in men, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation in women. In contrast, and less strongly so, salivary alpha-amylase levels correlated positively with risk-taking in women, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation with risk-taking in men. Collectively, these data support and extend data of earlier studies indicating that risky decision-making in men and women is differently affected by stress hormones. The data are briefly discussed in relation to the effects of stress on gambling.

  15. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  16. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn

    2016-01-01

    effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report...... assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios....

  17. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  18. Assessing tobacco marketing regulation implementation level in Georgia: evidence from Non Communicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lela Sturua

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Tobacco use continues to be the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide; the biggest burden of it falls on low- and middle-income countries and this trend is expected to widen further in case of inaction. The overall objective of the study is to describe and analyze the findings of the Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016 related to tobacco marketing regulation. Methods The current study in Georgia was a population-based STEPS survey of randomly selected adults aged 18-69 within each sex and 10-year age-group. A multi-stage cluster sample design was used to produce representative data for that age range in Georgia. A total of 5554 adults participated in the current survey. We assessed level o tobacco marketing regulation implementation in Georgia. Results Study results reported high prevalence of tobacco use in Georgian population (31.1% (95 % CI: 29.0-33.1. Study findings showed that about half of the current smokers are exposed to anti-tobacco information on TV or radio 52.3% (95% CI: 48.9 - 55.7, whereas 35.5% (95% CI: 32.2 - 38.8 reported being exposed to cigarette marketing at points of sales of tobacco products and 4.7% (95% CI: 3.2-6.1 to any cigarette promotions. Health warnings on cigarette packs was reported to be noticed by 88.7% (95% CI: 85.8-91.6 of current smokers; only 33% (95% CI: 25.4 - 40.7 of them reported having thought about quitting because of these warnings. Conclusions The prevalence of smoking in Georgia is high compared to other countries of the European Region and it is very likely that smoking related NCDs burden will increase. Stricter tobacco control policies coupled with anti-tobacco media campaigns can address this problem. Improved health warnings on tobacco packages and total ban of tobacco advertisement, promotion and sponsorship should be implemented in order to overcome prevailed tobacco industry marketing strategies.

  19. RISK ANALYSIS AND INTERNAL CONTROL ASSESSMENT - PREMISES FOR IMPROVING MANAGEMENT AT THE LEVEL OF ROMANIAN PUBLIC ENTITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA MARIA VOINEA

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Romania, as a European Union member state, has undergone, in recent years, a complex process of reform in all activity fields. This includes the current process of public administration reform, which aims to improve the management, the administrative capacity and the manner in which the entire Romanian public sector is organized. In this study, we intend to portray the manner in which the internal control system and the internal audit structure of a Romanian public entity are shaped into form. For exemplification, we chose the internal audit mission titled “The Accounting System and Its Reliability”. We will identify the risks, we will assess them and we will also propose measures through which the entity’s management may mitigate these risks by correcting registered deviations.

  20. Hazard quotient profiles used as a risk assessment tool for PFOS and PFOA serum levels in three distinctive European populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ludwicki, Jan K; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Struciński, Paweł

    2015-01-01

    Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) blood levels are commonly used as biomarkers of human environmental exposure to these compounds. Many biomonitoring studies indicate 100% detection for PFOS and PFOA thus justifying a concern of possible risk for the most exposed...... individuals. This study addresses the predictive value of hazard quotients (HQs) calculated on the basis of serum PFOS and PFOA in male and female populations of reproductive age in Greenland, Poland and Ukraine. Overall, 2026 results of PFOS and PFOA serum concentrations (589 males, 1437 females) were...... and PFOA. Only in the three cases of males in Greenland were there serum PFOS levels showing HQ values exceeding 1, so indicating that such serum levels may be of concern. The mean serum concentration of PFOS was significantly higher in male than in female populations. Despite significant differences...

  1. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  2. Risk assessment for the off-site transportation of high-level waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1996-12-01

    This report describes the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of high-level waste (HLW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers risks to collective populations and individuals under both routine and accident transportation conditions for truck and rail shipment modes. The report discusses the scope of the HLW transportation assessment, describes the analytical methods used for the assessment, defines the alternatives considered in the WM PEIS, and details important assessment assumptions. Results are reported for five alternatives. In addition, to aid in the understanding and interpretation of the results, specific areas of uncertainty are described, with an emphasis on how the uncertainties may affect comparisons of the alternatives

  3. Heavy metal levels in dune sands from Matanzas urban resorts and Varadero beach (Cuba): Assessment of contamination and ecological risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz Rizo, Oscar; Buzón González, Fran; Arado López, Juana O; Denis Alpízar, Otoniel

    2015-12-30

    Concentrations of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and lead (Pb) in dune sands from six urban and suburban Matanzas (Cuba) resorts and Varadero beach were estimated by X-ray fluorescence analysis. Ranges of metal contents in dune sands show a strong variation across the studied locations (in mg/kg(-1)): 20-2964 for Cr, 17-183 for Ni, 17-51 for Cu, 18-88 for Zn and 5-29 for Pb. The values of contamination factors and contamination degrees how that two of the studied Matanzas's resorts (Judio and Chirry) are strongly polluted. The comparison with Sediment Quality Guidelines shows that dune sands from Judio resort represent a serious risk for humans, due to polluted Cr and Ni levels, while sands from the rest of the studied resorts, including Varadero beach, do not represent any risk for public use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alajlouni, Abdalmajeed M; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-11-16

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment was performed based on equal potency of all alkenylbenzenes or using a so-called toxic equivalency (TEQ) approach through defining toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for the different alkenylbenzenes. The EDI values resulting from consuming one cup of tea a day were 0.2-10.1 μg/kg bw for the individual alkenylbenzenes, 0.6-13.1 μg/kg bw for the sum of the alkenylbenzenes, and 0.3-10.7 μg safrole equiv/kg bw for the sum of alkenylbenzenes when expressed in safrole equivalents. The margin of exposure (MOE) values obtained were generally <10000, indicating a concern if the teas would be consumed on a daily basis over longer periods of time.

  5. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  6. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  7. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  8. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  9. Screening-level Biomonitoring Equivalents for tiered interpretation of urinary 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) in a risk assessment context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Lesa L; Irwin, Kim; St-Amand, Annie; Nong, Andy; Hays, Sean M

    2018-02-01

    3-Phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) is a common metabolite of several pyrethroid pesticides of differing potency and also occurs as a residue in foods resulting from environmental degradation of parent pyrethroid compounds. Thus, 3-PBA in urine is not a specific biomarker of exposure to a particular pyrethroid. However, an approach derived from the use of Biomonitoring Equivalents (BEs) can be used to estimate a conservative initial screening value for a tiered assessment of population data on 3-PBA in urine. A conservative generic urinary excretion fraction for 3-PBA was estimated from data for five pyrethroid compounds with human data. Estimated steady-state urinary 3-PBA concentrations associated with reference doses and acceptable daily intakes for each of the nine compounds ranged from 1.7 μg/L for cyhalothrin and deltamethrin to 520 μg/L for permethrin. The lower value can be used as a highly conservative Tier 1 screening value for assessment of population urinary 3-PBA data. A second tier screening value of 87 μg/L was derived based on weighting by relative exposure estimates for the different pyrethroid compounds, to be applied as part of the data evaluation process if biomonitoring data exceed the Tier 1 value. These BE values are most appropriately used to evaluate the central tendency of population biomarker concentration data in a risk assessment context. The provisional BEs were compared to available national biomonitoring data from the US and Canada. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  11. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  12. Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

    2017-09-01

    Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

  13. Levels, profiles and risk assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls, dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in breast milk from North China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, J.H.; Sun, S.J.; Horiguchi, H.; Kayama, F. [Dept. of Environ. Medicine, Jichi Medical School, Kawachi-gun (Japan)]|[CREST-JST, Kawaguchi, Saitama (Japan); Nakamura, M. [Hiyoshi Corp., Omihachiman, Shiga (Japan); Li Li; Ge Jun [Hospital of gynaecology and maternity of Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province (China); Ma Yu-Xia [Dept. of Hygienic Food, Collection of Public Health, Hebei Medical Univ. (China); Hou Xiu-Jun [The Second Hospital of Luanxian, Hebei Province (China); Clark, G. [Xenobiotic Detection System International Inc., Durham, NC (United States)

    2004-09-15

    China have produced and used organochlorine pesticides with low purity in a large quantity. However, there is little information on the environmental levels of organohalogens contamination as well as body burden of these chemicals, especially in Mainland China. After recent rapid growth of economy in China, health effects of persistent organohalogens are of growing concern. To assess mother's body burden and perinatal exposure of dioxins and pesticides, we collected breast milk specimens from Shijiazhuang urban and Tangshan rural area, Hebei Province, North China, and measured dioxins by DIPS-CALUX{sup circledR} bioassay (Dioxin and PCB specific Chemical-Activated LUciferase gene eXpression cell bioassay system).

  14. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment of low power and shutdown operations at a PWR: Phase 2 results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, T.L.; Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Wong, S.M.; Yang, J.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Su, R.F.; Holmes, B.; Siu, N.; Bley, D.; Lin, J.

    1992-01-01

    As a result of the Chernobyl accident and other precursor events (e.g., Diablo Canyon), the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) initiated an extensive project during 1989 to carefully examine the potential risks during Low Power and Shutdown (LP ampersand S) operations. Shortly after the program began, an event occurred at the Vogtle plant during shutdown, which further intensified the effort of the LP ampersand S program. In the LP ampersand S program, one pressurized water reactor (PWR), Surry, and one boiling water reactor (BWR), Grand Gulf, were selected, mainly because they were previously analyzed in the NUREG-1150 Study. The Level-1 Program is being performed in two phases. Phase 1 was dedicated to performing a coarse screening level-1 analysis including internal fire and flood. A draft report was completed in November, 1991. In the phase 2 study, mid-loop operations at the Surry plant were analyzed in detail. The objective of this paper is to present the approach of the phase 2 study and the preliminary results and insights

  16. Monitoring of nitrites and nitrates levels in leafy vegetables (spinach and lettuce): a contribution to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iammarino, Marco; Di Taranto, Aurelia; Cristino, Marianna

    2014-03-15

    Nitrites and nitrates are compounds considered harmful to humans and the major part of the daily intake of nitrates in foodstuffs is related to vegetable consumption. In this work, 150 leafy vegetables samples (75 spinach and 75 lettuce) were analysed in order to assess the levels of nitrites and nitrates. The analyses were carried out by a validated ion chromatography method and the samples with nitrate concentrations higher than legal limits and/or with quantifiable concentrations of nitrites were confirmed by an alternative ion chromatography method. Nitrate levels higher than legal limits were detected both in spinach (four samples) and in lettuce (five samples). Nitrite residues were registered both at low concentrations--lower than 28.5 mg kg⁻¹ (12 spinach samples)--and at high concentrations, up to 197.5 mg kg⁻¹ (three spinach and one lettuce sample). Considering the non-negligible percentage of 'not-compliant' samples for nitrates (6.0%), control is needed. Moreover, it is possible to suggest the introduction in the Communities Regulations of a 'maximum admissible level' for nitrites in leafy vegetables. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  18. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

    2013-06-01

    Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

  20. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  1. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  2. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Environmental levels of PCDD/Fs and metals around a cement plant in Catalonia, Spain, before and after alternative fuel implementation. Assessment of human health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rovira, Joaquim [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Països Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia (Spain); Nadal, Martí, E-mail: marti.nadal@urv.cat [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Schuhmacher, Marta [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Països Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia (Spain); Domingo, José L. [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    The concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sn, Tl, V, and Zn, and the levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans were determined in samples of soil, vegetation, and air, collected in the vicinity of a cement plant (Catalonia, Spain), before (January 2011 and July 2011) and after (January 2012 and June 2013) alternative fuel partial substitution (fossil fuels by sewage sludge). Seven sampling points were selected at different directions and distances to the facility including two background sampling points. The results were used to assess the health risk assessment for the population living near the facility. Only few significant differences were found before and after alternative fuel partial substitution (Mn in soils and Cd in vegetation). Non-carcinogenic risks were below the safety threshold (HQ < 1), while carcinogenic risks were below 10{sup −5}, or exceeding slightly that value, always in the range considered as assumable (10{sup −6}–10{sup −4}). - Highlights: • The environmental impact of a cement plant using alternative fuel was monitored. • No significant differences in most pollutants were noted after the fuel change. • Traffic has a notable influence on the environmental levels of PCDD/Fs and metals. • Human health risks were below safety thresholds regardless of the used fuel.

  4. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  5. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  6. WASTE-PRA: a computer package for probabilistic risk assessment of shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, N.D.; Atwood, C.L.

    1985-12-01

    This report is a user's manual for a package of computer programs and data files to be used for probabilistic risk assessment of shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste. The nuclide transport pathways modeled are an unsaturated groundwater column, an aquifer, and the atmosphere. An individual or the population receives a dose commitment through shine, inhalation, ingestion, direct exposure, and/or a puncture wound. The methodology of risk assessment is based on the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The parameters of the model for predicting dose commitment due to a release are treated as statistical variables, in order to compute statistical distributions for various contributions to the dose commitment. The likelihood of a release is similarly treated as a statistical variable. Uncertainty distributions are obtained both for the dose commitment and for the corresponding risk. Plots and printouts are produced to aid in comparing the importance of various release scenarios and in assessing the total risk of a set of scenarios. The entire methodology is illustrated by an example. Information is included on parameter uncertainties, reference site characteristics, and probabilities of release events

  7. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  8. [Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

    2014-03-01

    To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

  9. Turkish assessment of SURF (SUrvey of Risk Factor Management) study: Control rates of cardiovascular risk factors derived from databases of 15 different levels of health centers in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokgözoğlu, Lale; Oğuz, Aytekin; Balcı, Mustafa Kemal; Temizhan, Ahmet; Güldal Altunoğlu, Esma; Bektaş, Osman; Aslan, Güler; Iyigün, Özgün; Kara, Ahmet; Tanrıverdi Pınar, Handan; Yavuz, Saffet; Tekin, Murat; Ercan, Saffet; Çelik, Selda; Sezgin Meriçliler, Özlem; Bozkurt Çakır, İrem

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the adherence to recommendations for secondary prevention and the achievement of treatment targets for the control of risk factors in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) who were followed-up at various healthcare facilities in Turkey. According to the protocol of the international Survey of Risk Factor Management study, questionnaire forms were completed and demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory data of CHD patients who were followed-up at a total of 15 selected primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare centers were recorded. Among a total of 724 CHD patients (69.8% male; mean age: 63.3±10.7 years) included in the study, 18.4% were current smokers, only 19.1% had normal body mass index, and 22.1% had waist circumference below the limit of abdominal obesity. Physical activity was insufficient in 53% of the patients, 47.3% had low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol value, 46% had triglyceride level above 150 mg/dL, and 67% had glycated hemoglobin value of 6.5% or above. Of all the patients, 88.1% were using antiplatelet drugs, 71.4% were using beta-blockers, 55.7% were using statins, and 41.9% were using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers. Blood pressure was under control in 56.7% of the hypertensive patients using antihypertensive drugs, and the proportion of diabetic patients who reached glycemic control targets using antidiabetic drugs was 35.9%. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was below 70 mg/dL in 12.2% of the patients using statins. According to the data obtained, among Turkish CHD patients, the control rate of cardiovascular risk factors is low, and implementation of the recommendations regarding lifestyle modification and medication use for secondary prevention in the current guidelines are insufficient.

  10. Assessing the risk associated with the presence of emerging organic contaminants in sludge-amended soil: A country-level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomaidi, Vasiliki S; Stasinakis, Athanasios S; Borova, Viola L; Thomaidis, Nikolaos S

    2016-04-01

    Greece was used as case study and the environmental risk associated with the existence of 99 emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) in sludge-amended soil was estimated using risk quotient (RQ) approach. Data on the concentration levels of EOCs in sewage sludge was collected after literature review. Chemical analyses were also conducted for 50 pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs in sludge samples from Athens Sewage Treatment Plant. Risk assessment was based on both terrestrial and aquatic acute toxicity data, using both the maximum and the average measured concentrations of the target compounds. EC50/LC50 values were collected through literature review or using the ECOSAR program in cases that experimental values were not available. Triclosan seems to pose an environmental risk on the soil environment, as its RQ values exceeded 1, both in terrestrial and aquatic toxicity data based risk assessment. Calculations based on aquatic toxicity data showed that another eleven compounds had RQs higher than 1, most of them belonging to the classes of synthetic phenolic compounds and siloxanes. Tetradecamethylhexasiloxane presented the highest RQ, while high RQs were also calculated for decamethylcyclopentasiloxane and caffeine. No environmental risk for the terrestrial environment is expected due to the individual action of illicit drugs, perfluorinated compounds and benzotriazoles. The sludge source and the day of sampling affected the estimated threat due to nonylphenolic compounds; however these factors did not affect the estimated risk for siloxanes, caffeine and ofloxacin. Calculation of RQ values for the mixture of EOCs, using either the maximum or the average concentrations, far exceeded 1 (253 and 209, respectively), indicating a presumable threat for the terrestrial environment due to the baseline toxicity of these compounds. Countries that reuse sludge for agricultural purposes should include specific EOCs in national monitoring campaigns and study more thoroughly on

  11. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  14. [Pollution Level and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Atmospheric PM₂.₅ in Nanjing Before and After the Youth Olympic Games].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Heng; Zhou, Zi-qiang; Zhao, Hai-yan; Xiong, Zheng-qin

    2016-01-15

    The influence of human activities on the atmospheric environment has attracted people's attention. This study reported the dynamic changes in PM₂.₅ concentration, its heavy metal compositions and health risk assessment from April to September, 2014 in Nanjing when the Youth Olympic Games ( YOG) was held. The results showed that the mass levels of PM₂.₅ ranged from 26.39 to 80.31 µg · m⁻³ from April to September. The mass levels of PM₂.₅ met the level II standard of ambient air quality in China (24 h average concentration, 75 µg · m⁻³) in months of April, May and July while met the level I standard (24 h average concentration, 35 µg · m⁻³) in August during the YOG. The average mass concentration of PM₂.₅ reached 76.14 µg · m⁻¹ after the YOG, showing resilience of air pollution. The variations of heavy metals were not consistent with each other throughout the observation period. Principal component analysis indicated that emission sources significantly affected the variations of PM₂.₅ and its heavy metals. PM₂.₅ and all of the heavy metals decreased to their minimum values during the YOG, indicating the effectiveness of those temporary measures for reducing atmospheric pollutant before and during the YOG. The health risks of Cd, Cu, Ni and Pb in PM₂.₅ via breathing and dermal contact exposure were all within the acceptable ranges, but potential carcinogenic risk existed for Cr in PM₂.₅. There was potential non-carcinogenic health risk for adult males via breathing of Mn and greater non-carcinogenic health risk for children via dermal contact exposures to all these 6 heavy metals.

  15. Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

    2016-04-01

    Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  17. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  18. Respiratory cancer risks associated with low-level nickel exposure: an integrated assessment based on animal, epidemiological, and mechanistic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seilkop, Steven K; Oller, Adriana R

    2003-04-01

    Increased lung and nasal cancer risks have been reported in several cohorts of nickel refinery workers, but in more than 90% of the nickel-exposed workers that have been studied there is little, if any evidence of excess risk. This investigation utilizes human exposure measurements, animal data from cancer bioassays of three nickel compounds, and a mechanistic theory of nickel carcinogenesis to reconcile the disparities in lung cancer risk among nickel-exposed workers. Animal data and mechanistic theory suggest that the apparent absence of risk in workers with low nickel exposures is due to threshold-like responses in lung tumor incidence (oxidic nickel), tumor promotion (soluble nickel), and genetic damage (sulfidic nickel). When animal-based lung cancer dose-response functions for these compounds are extrapolated to humans, taking into account interspecies differences in deposition and clearance, differences in particle size distributions, and human work activity patterns, the predicted risks at occupational exposures are remarkably similar to those observed in nickel-exposed workers. This provides support for using the animal-based dose-response functions to estimate occupational exposure limits, which are found to be comparable to those in current use.

  19. Aggregate versus Individual-Level Sexual Behavior Assessment: How Much Detail Is Needed to Accurately Estimate HIV/STI Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkerton, Steven D.; Galletly, Carol L.; McAuliffe, Timothy L.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Raymond, H. Fisher; Chesson, Harrell W.

    2010-01-01

    The sexual behaviors of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention intervention participants can be assessed on a partner-by-partner basis: in aggregate (i.e., total numbers of sex acts, collapsed across partners) or using a combination of these two methods (e.g., assessing five partners in detail and any remaining partners in aggregate).…

  20. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  1. Performance of Interleukin-6 and Interleukin-8 serum levels in pediatric oncology patients with neutropenia and fever for the assessment of low-risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kontny Udo

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients with chemotherapy-related neutropenia and fever are usually hospitalized and treated on empirical intravenous broad-spectrum antibiotic regimens. Early diagnosis of sepsis in children with febrile neutropenia remains difficult due to non-specific clinical and laboratory signs of infection. We aimed to analyze whether IL-6 and IL-8 could define a group of patients at low risk of septicemia. Methods A prospective study was performed to assess the potential value of IL-6, IL-8 and C-reactive protein serum levels to predict severe bacterial infection or bacteremia in febrile neutropenic children with cancer during chemotherapy. Statistical test used: Friedman test, Wilcoxon-Test, Kruskal-Wallis H test, Mann-Whitney U-Test and Receiver Operating Characteristics. Results The analysis of cytokine levels measured at the onset of fever indicated that IL-6 and IL-8 are useful to define a possible group of patients with low risk of sepsis. In predicting bacteremia or severe bacterial infection, IL-6 was the best predictor with the optimum IL-6 cut-off level of 42 pg/ml showing a high sensitivity (90% and specificity (85%. Conclusion These findings may have clinical implications for risk-based antimicrobial treatment strategies.

  2. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  3. Need assessment for HIV/AIDS Education: The level of knowledge about transmission in some risk groups in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozcebe, H.

    2002-01-01

    Every year, the number of HIV/AIDS cases increases twice as much as the year before in Turkey. The authors anticipate that the actual numbers of HIV/AIDS cases in Turkey are higher than the number of cases diagnosed and reported. This review summarizes the results of some previous studies that were conducted among various risk groups, such as high school and university students, barbers, hair dressers, nurses, pharmacists and doctors, men and women engaged in sex trade and security workers in different regions of country. The responses of participants to similar questions of studies on the transmission of HIV/AIDS were evaluated in this review. The studies that have been conducted among different risk groups in different regions have shown that in spite of low prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Turkey, many risk groups still do not have adequate or correct information on the prevalence and transmission of disease. Effective and extensive health education on HIV/AIDS and the practice of healthy lifestyle would change the epidemiology of the disease in Turkey. (author)

  4. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  5. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  6. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  7. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  8. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  9. A multivariable assessment quantifying effects of cohort-level factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk in cohorts of U.S. commercial feedlot cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, A H; Cernicchiaro, N; White, B J; Dubnicka, S R; Thomson, D U; Ives, S E; Scott, H M; Milliken, G A; Renter, D G

    2013-01-01

    Economic losses due to cattle mortality and culling have a substantial impact on the feedlot industry. Since criteria for culling may vary and may affect measures of cumulative mortality within cattle cohorts, it is important to assess both mortality and culling when evaluating cattle losses over time and among feedlots. To date, there are no published multivariable assessments of factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk. Our objective was to evaluate combined mortality and culling losses in feedlot cattle cohorts and quantify effects of commonly measured cohort-level risk factors (weight at feedlot arrival, gender, and month of feedlot arrival) using data routinely collected by commercial feedlots. We used retrospective data representing 8,904,965 animals in 54,416 cohorts from 16 U.S. feedlots from 2000 to 2007. The sum of mortality and culling counts for each cohort (given the number of cattle at risk) was used to generate the outcome of interest, the cumulative incidence of combined mortality and culling. Associations between this outcome variable and cohort-level risk factors were evaluated using a mixed effects multivariable negative binomial regression model with random effects for feedlot, year, month and week of arrival. Mean arrival weight of the cohort, gender, and arrival month and a three-way interaction (and corresponding two-way interactions) among arrival weight, gender and month were significantly (Prisk decreased, but effects of arrival weight were modified both by the gender of the cohort and the month of feedlot arrival. There was a seasonal pattern in combined mortality and culling risk for light and middle-weight male and female cohorts, with a significantly (Prisk for cattle arriving at the feedlot in spring and summer (March-September) than in cattle arriving during fall, and winter months (November-February). Our results quantified effects of covariate patterns that have been heretofore difficult to fully evaluate in

  10. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  11. Pesticides in persimmons, jujubes and soil from China: Residue levels, risk assessment and relationship between fruits and soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yihua; Li, Shiliang; Ni, Zhanglin; Qu, Minghua; Zhong, Donglian; Ye, Caifen; Tang, Fubin

    2016-01-15

    Extreme and uncontrolled usage of pesticides produces a number of problems for vegetation and human health. In this study, the existence of organophosphates (OPs), organochlorines (OCs), pyrethroids (PYs) and fungicides (FUs) were investigated in persimmons/jujubes and their planted soils, which were collected from China. One OP (dimethoate), three OCs (DDT, quintozene and aldrin), six PYs (bifenthrin, fenpropathrin, cyhalothrin, cypermethrin, fenvalerate and deltamethrin) and two FUs (triadimefon and buprofezin) were found in 36.4% of persimmons and 70.8% of jujubes, with concentrations from 1.0 μg/kg to 2945.0 μg/kg. The most frequently detected pesticides in the two fruits were fenpropathrin in persimmons and cypermethrin in jujubes, with the detection frequencies of 30.0% and 22.7%, respectively. The residues of 4.5% (persimmon) and 25.0% (jujube) of samples were higher than the maximum residue limits (MRLs) of China. Compared with the fruits, more types of pesticides and higher residues were observed in their planted soils. The most frequently detected pesticides were HCH in persimmon soil and DDT in jujube soil, with the detection frequencies of 10.9% and 12.7%, respectively. For the tested samples, 39.1% of fruit samples and 63.0% of soil samples with multiple residues (containing more than two pesticides) were noted, even up to 8 residues in fruits and 14 residues in soils. Except for cyhalothrin, the other short-term risks for the tested pesticides in the fruits were below 10%, and the highest long-term risk was 14.13% for aldrin and dieldrin. There was no significant health risk for consumers via consumption of the two fruits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  13. Cancer risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils determined using bioassay-derived levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux, Christine L; Long, Alexandra S; Lambert, Iain B; Lundstedt, Staffan; Tysklind, Mats; White, Paul A

    2015-02-03

    Here we evaluate the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) posed by 10 PAH-contaminated soils using (i) the currently advocated, targeted chemical-specific approach that assumes dose additivity for carcinogenic PAHs and (ii) a bioassay-based approach that employs the in vitro mutagenic activity of the soil fractions to determine levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents and, by extension, ELCR. Mutagenic activity results are presented in our companion paper.1 The results show that ELCR values for the PAH-containing fractions, determined using the chemical-specific approach, are generally (i.e., 8 out of 10) greater than those calculated using the bioassay-based approach; most are less than 5-fold greater. Only two chemical-specific ELCR estimates are less than their corresponding bioassay-derived values; differences are less than 10%. The bioassay-based approach, which permits estimation of ELCR without a priori knowledge of mixture composition, proved to be a useful tool to evaluate the chemical-specific approach. The results suggest that ELCR estimates for complex PAH mixtures determined using a targeted, chemical-specific approach are reasonable, albeit conservative. Calculated risk estimates still depend on contentious PEFs and cancer slope factors. Follow-up in vivo mutagenicity assessments will be required to validate the results and their relevance for human health risk assessment of PAH-contaminated soils.

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  15. Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang.

    1992-01-01

    In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85 x 10 -6 /yr, 1.26 x 10 -5 /yr). Also, using these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10 4 years is (1.0 x 10 -3 , 6.7 x 10 -3 ), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame

  16. Screening-level ecological and human health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in stormwater detention pond sediments of Coastal South Carolina, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weinstein, John E., E-mail: john.weinstein@citadel.edu [Department of Biology, The Citadel, Charleston, SC (United States); Crawford, Kevin D. [Department of Chemistry, University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Oshkosh, WI (United States); Garner, Thomas R. [Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Clemson University, Pendleton, SC (United States); Flemming, Alan J. [South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, Charleston, SC (United States)

    2010-06-15

    Screening-level ecological and human health assessments were performed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination in the sediments of 19 stormwater detention ponds located in coastal South Carolina. For ecological screening benchmarks, we used threshold and probable effect concentrations (TEC and PEC) derived from consensus-based sediment quality guidelines for individual PAH analytes and equilibrium partitioning sediment benchmarks-toxic units ({Sigma}ESB-TU) derived for PAH mixtures. For human health benchmarks, we used preliminary remediation goals (PRGs). Sediments of five stormwater ponds (four commercial ponds and one residential pond with a large drainage area) exceeded PEC values for several PAH analytes and the {Sigma}ESB-TU safe value of 1 for PAH mixtures. These same five stormwater ponds also exceeded the PRG values for five carcinogenic PAH analytes. These results suggest that the PAH levels in sediments from certain commercial and residential ponds have the potential to pose moderate to high risks for adverse, chronic effects to benthic organisms in situ and an increased risk of cancer to humans ex situ following excavation and on-site disposal. We recommend that sediment from these stormwater ponds be tested prior to excavation to determine the appropriate method of disposal. We also recommend that regulatory agencies enforce guidelines for periodic sediment removal as this should reduce both in situ and ex situ risks resulting from sediment PAH exposure.

  17. Screening-level ecological and human health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in stormwater detention pond sediments of Coastal South Carolina, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinstein, John E.; Crawford, Kevin D.; Garner, Thomas R.; Flemming, Alan J.

    2010-01-01

    Screening-level ecological and human health assessments were performed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination in the sediments of 19 stormwater detention ponds located in coastal South Carolina. For ecological screening benchmarks, we used threshold and probable effect concentrations (TEC and PEC) derived from consensus-based sediment quality guidelines for individual PAH analytes and equilibrium partitioning sediment benchmarks-toxic units (ΣESB-TU) derived for PAH mixtures. For human health benchmarks, we used preliminary remediation goals (PRGs). Sediments of five stormwater ponds (four commercial ponds and one residential pond with a large drainage area) exceeded PEC values for several PAH analytes and the ΣESB-TU safe value of 1 for PAH mixtures. These same five stormwater ponds also exceeded the PRG values for five carcinogenic PAH analytes. These results suggest that the PAH levels in sediments from certain commercial and residential ponds have the potential to pose moderate to high risks for adverse, chronic effects to benthic organisms in situ and an increased risk of cancer to humans ex situ following excavation and on-site disposal. We recommend that sediment from these stormwater ponds be tested prior to excavation to determine the appropriate method of disposal. We also recommend that regulatory agencies enforce guidelines for periodic sediment removal as this should reduce both in situ and ex situ risks resulting from sediment PAH exposure.

  18. Temporal trend in the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted in a big tire landfill fire in Spain: Risk assessment for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira, Joaquim; Domínguez-Morueco, Noelia; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2018-02-23

    In May 2016, a big fire occurred in an illegal landfill placed in Seseña (Toledo, Spain), where between 70,000 and 90,000 tons of tires had been accumulated during years. Just after the fire, and because of the increase of airborne PAHs, we found that cancer risks for the population living in the neighborhood of the landfill were 3-5 times higher than for the rest of inhabitants of Seseña. Some months after our initial (June 2016) study, two sampling campaigns (December 2016 and May 2017) were performed to assess the temporal trends of the environmental levels of PAHs, as well as to reassure that these chemicals did not pose any risk for the human health of Seseña inhabitants. In soils, the total concentrations of the 16 PAHs (December 2016), as well as the sum of the seven carcinogenic PAHs, showed values between 8.5 and 94.7 ng g -1 and between 1.0 and 42.3 ng g -1 , respectively. In May 2017, a significant decrease (between 4 and 38 times) in the levels of PAHs in air was observed, with total concentrations ranging between 3.49 and 5.06 ng m -3 . One year after the fire, the cancer risk at different zones of Seseña was similar, being lower than that found in June 2016, and negligible according to national and international agencies.

  19. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  20. Assessing the risk caused by ground level ozone to European forest trees: A case study in pine, beech and oak across different climate regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emberson, Lisa D.; Bueker, Patrick; Ashmore, Mike R.

    2007-01-01

    Two different indices have been proposed for estimation of the risk caused to forest trees across Europe by ground-level ozone, (i) the concentration based AOT40 index (Accumulated Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) and (ii) the recently developed flux based AFstY index (Accumulated stomatal Flux above a flux threshold Y). This paper compares the AOT40 and AFstY indices for three forest trees species at different locations in Europe. The AFstY index is estimated using the DO 3 SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model parameterized for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex). The results show a large difference in the perceived O 3 risk when using AOT40 and AFstY indices both between species and regions. The AOT40 index shows a strong north-south gradient across Europe, whereas there is little difference between regions in the modelled values of AFstY. There are significant differences in modelled AFstY between species, which are predominantly determined by differences in the timing and length of the growing season, the periods during which soil moisture deficit limits stomatal conductance, and adaptation to soil moisture stress. This emphasizes the importance of defining species-specific flux response variables to obtain a more accurate quantification of O 3 risk. - A new flux-based model provides a revised assessment of risks of ozone impacts to European forests

  1. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  2. Screening level model for ecological risk assessment at EF-Site Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alldredge, A.W.; Kirchner, T.B.; McLendon, T.

    1995-12-01

    In response to a paucity of data on the chemical toxicity of uranium to plants, a factorial experiment employing five uranium concentrations (0, 50, 500, 5000, 25000 ppm) and three moisture regimes (low, medium, high) was performed using three native grasses. Buchloe dactyloides (buffalograss-mid/late seral), Schizachyrium scoparium (little bluestem-late seral), and Aristida longiseta (purple threeawn-early/mid seral) were grown in monocultures and every mixture of two species under all combinations of uranium and moisture levels. This design allows for the analysis of uranium effects, as well as possible compound effects due to moisture stress. Several measures of plant health and viability were made, including: percent emergence, survivability of seedlings and mature plants, root and shoot biomass, and the number and mass of inflorescences. No significant differences between uranium levels were observed in terms of emergence and seedling survival. Effects are evident for plant biomass, fecundity, and long-term survivability

  3. Screening level model for ecological risk assessment at EF-Site Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alldredge, A.W.; Kirchner, T.B.; McLendon, T. [and others

    1995-12-01

    In response to a paucity of data on the chemical toxicity of uranium to plants, a factorial experiment employing five uranium concentrations (0, 50, 500, 5000, 25000 ppm) and three moisture regimes (low, medium, high) was performed using three native grasses. Buchloe dactyloides (buffalograss-mid/late seral), Schizachyrium scoparium (little bluestem-late seral), and Aristida longiseta (purple threeawn-early/mid seral) were grown in monocultures and every mixture of two species under all combinations of uranium and moisture levels. This design allows for the analysis of uranium effects, as well as possible compound effects due to moisture stress. Several measures of plant health and viability were made, including: percent emergence, survivability of seedlings and mature plants, root and shoot biomass, and the number and mass of inflorescences. No significant differences between uranium levels were observed in terms of emergence and seedling survival. Effects are evident for plant biomass, fecundity, and long-term survivability.

  4. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  5. The legacy of extreme sea levels for the assessment of future coastal flood risk – A review of methods applied in Denmark, Germany and Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsen, Jan Even; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Dangendore, Sönke

    in the three countries is discussed. Here, national approaches to deal with risk, risk acceptance and uncertainty vary, among other factors, as a result of the different assessments of extreme events. In hazard and vulnerability assessments, for instance, where results are highly dependent on the quality...

  6. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  7. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  8. Upper limb joint kinetic analysis during tennis serve: Assessment of competitive level on efficiency and injury risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, C; Bideau, B; Ropars, M; Delamarche, P; Kulpa, R

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this work was to compare the joint kinetics and stroke production efficiency for the shoulder, elbow, and wrist during the serve between professionals and advanced tennis players and to discuss their potential relationship with given overuse injuries. Eleven professional and seven advanced tennis players were studied with an optoelectronic motion analysis system while performing serves. Normalized peak kinetic values of the shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were calculated using inverse dynamics. To measure serve efficiency, all normalized peak kinetic values were divided by ball velocity. t-tests were used to determine significant differences between the resultant joint kinetics and efficiency values in both groups (advanced vs professional). Shoulder inferior force, shoulder anterior force, shoulder horizontal abduction torque, and elbow medial force were significantly higher in advanced players. Professional players were more efficient than advanced players, as they maximize ball velocity with lower joint kinetics. Since advanced players are subjected to higher joint kinetics, the results suggest that they appeared more susceptible to high risk of shoulder and elbow injuries than professionals, especially during the cocking and deceleration phases of the serve. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  10. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  11. Assessment of Natural Radioactivity Levels and Potential Radiological Risks of Common Building Materials Used in Bangladeshi Dwellings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asaduzzaman, Khandoker; Mannan, Farhana; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Farook, Mohideen Salihu; Elkezza, Aeman; Amin, Yusoff Bin Mohd; Sharma, Sailesh; Abu Kassim, Hasan Bin

    2015-01-01

    The concentrations of primordial radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in commonly used building materials (brick, cement and sand), the raw materials of cement and the by-products of coal-fired power plants (fly ash) collected from various manufacturers and suppliers in Bangladesh were determined via gamma-ray spectrometry using an HPGe detector. The results showed that the mean concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in all studied samples slightly exceeded the typical world average values of 50 Bq kg(-1), 50 Bq kg(-1) and 500 Bq kg(-1), respectively. The activity concentrations (especially 226Ra) of fly-ash-containing cement in this study were found to be higher than those of fly-ash-free cement. To evaluate the potential radiological risk to individuals associated with these building materials, various radiological hazard indicators were calculated. The radium equivalent activity values for all samples were found to be lower than the recommended limit for building materials of 370 Bq kg(-1), with the exception of the fly ash. For most samples, the values of the alpha index and the radiological hazard (external and internal) indices were found to be within the safe limit of 1. The mean indoor absorbed dose rate was observed to be higher than the population-weighted world average of 84 nGy h(-1), and the corresponding annual effective dose for most samples fell below the recommended upper dose limit of 1 mSv y(-1). For all investigated materials, the values of the gamma index were found to be greater than 0.5 but less than 1, indicating that the gamma dose contribution from the studied building materials exceeds the exemption dose criterion of 0.3 mSv y(-1) but complies with the upper dose principle of 1 mSv y(-1).

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  14. Porphyrin pattern and methemoglobin levels in Columba livia applied to assess toxicological risk by air pollution in urban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicolo, Matteo; Tringali, Maria; Orsi, Federica; Santagostino, Angela

    2009-11-01

    The study has explored two conservative biomarkers, porphyrin pattern in guano and methemoglobin levels in blood of Columba livia, in order to assay their potential use for monitoring toxic effects induced by exposure to urban air pollution. Fieldwork was conducted between October 2003 and June 2005 in the city of Milan, Italy, by sampling the pigeons in different areas almost twice a week. Six air contaminants, CO, PM10, NO(2), O(3), SO(2), and C(6)H(6), plus polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in fine particles, temperature, and UV index, were considered. Protoporphyrins from pigeon excreta sampled outdoors were always higher than in indoor animals, particularly in winter. A positive correlation (p urban air showed significant differences from season to season but only in summer and autumn did the outdoor pigeons show higher values than indoor animals. In summer, a regression model with a positive correlation between O(3) and benzene was determined (p urban air pollution as well as for detecting complex interactions between contaminants in the urban air pollutant mixture was discussed.

  15. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  16. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Estimating central tendency from a single spot measure: A closed-form solution for lognormally distributed biomarker data for risk assessment at the individual level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleil, Joachim D; Sobus, Jon R

    2016-01-01

    Exposure-based risk assessment employs large cross-sectional data sets of environmental and biomarker measurements to predict population statistics for adverse health outcomes. The underlying assumption is that long-term (many years) latency health problems including cancer, autoimmune and cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and asthma are triggered by lifetime exposures to environmental stressors that interact with the genome. The aim of this study was to develop a specific predictive method that provides the statistical parameters for chronic exposure at the individual level based upon a single spot measurement and knowledge of global summary statistics as derived from large data sets. This is a profound shift in exposure and health statistics in that it begins to answer the question "How large is my personal risk?" rather than just providing an overall population-based estimate. This approach also holds value for interpreting exposure-based risks for small groups of individuals within a community in comparison to random individuals from the general population.

  18. Levels of selected heavy metals in varieties of vegetable oils consumed in kingdom of saudi arabia and health risk assessment of local population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashraf, M.W.

    2014-01-01

    Selected heavy metals, namely Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cd, Pb and As, in seven popular varieties of edible vegetable oils collected from Saudi Arabia, were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS) using microwave digestion. The accuracy of procedure was confirmed by certified reference materials (NIST 1577b). The concentrations for copper, zinc, iron, manganese, lead and arsenic were observed in the range of 0.035 - 0.286, 0.955 - 3.10, 17.3 - 57.8, 0.178 - 0.586, 0.011 - 0.017 and 0.011 - 0.018 meug/g, respectively. Cadmium was found to be in the range of 2.36 - 6.34 ng/g. The results are compared internationally and with standards laid down by world health agencies. A risk assessment study has been carried out to assess exposure to these metals via consumption of vegetable oils. A comparison has been made with safety intake levels for these heavy metals recommended by Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IOM), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The results indicated that the dietary intakes of the selected heavy metals from daily consumption of 25 g of edible vegetable oils for a 70 kg individual should pose no significant health risk to local population. (author)

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  1. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. A framework and methods for incorporating gender-related issues in wildlife risk assessment: gender-related differences in metal levels and other contaminants as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna

    2007-05-01

    Gender plays a role in the genetics, physiology, morphology, and behavior of organisms, and thus influences the uptake, fate, and effects of contaminants in organisms. There are a number of chemical analysis tools, as well as biological approaches to understanding the influence of gender on contaminant levels and effects in wildlife. Biological approaches occur at all levels, from mutagenesis, gene expression and biochemistry, to physiology, morphology and development, to pathology and behavior. Information on the effects of gender at all these levels is essential for model building, risk assessment, and developing biomonitoring plans. Gender influences both internal and external fate and effects. However, bioaccumulation and effects cannot occur without exposure, which is mediated by behavior, bioavailability, bioaccessibility, and absorption. Gender influences a number of individual features (size, nutrition, genetics, hormones), that in turn affect niche differentiation, leading back to differences in exposure and susceptibility. Both sexes have a variety of methods of ridding the body of contaminants, through the bile, urine, exhaled air, and sloughing of epidermal structures (skin, hair, feathers). Females can also rid their body of contaminants through egg contents and egg shells, or mammals by transfer to the developing fetus and through breast milk. The availability of contaminant data in wildlife depends partly on the ease of identification of the sexes by either external or internal examination. Thus, there are more data on contaminant levels in birds and mammals than in fish. Surprisingly, metal levels are not uniformly low in females, even when they are morphologically smaller than males. For 43 studies of metals in vertebrates, females had higher levels in 30 cases where there were significant differences (and males were higher in only 14 cases). Females usually had higher levels of mercury than males. Review of the literature suggests that authors

  3. Technology Performance Level Assessment Methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Bull, Diana L; Malins, Robert Joseph; Costello, Ronan Patrick; Aurelien Babarit; Kim Nielsen; Claudio Bittencourt Ferreira; Ben Kennedy; Kathryn Dykes; Jochem Weber

    2017-04-01

    The technology performance level (TPL) assessments can be applied at all technology development stages and associated technology readiness levels (TRLs). Even, and particularly, at low TRLs the TPL assessment is very effective as it, holistically, considers a wide range of WEC attributes that determine the techno-economic performance potential of the WEC farm when fully developed for commercial operation. The TPL assessment also highlights potential showstoppers at the earliest possible stage of the WEC technology development. Hence, the TPL assessment identifies the technology independent “performance requirements.” In order to achieve a successful solution, the entirety of the performance requirements within the TPL must be considered because, in the end, all the stakeholder needs must be achieved. The basis for performing a TPL assessment comes from the information provided in a dedicated format, the Technical Submission Form (TSF). The TSF requests information from the WEC developer that is required to answer the questions posed in the TPL assessment document.

  4. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  5. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  6. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  7. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  8. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  9. Food wastes as fish feeds for polyculture of low-trophic-level fish: bioaccumulation and health risk assessments of heavy metals in the cultured fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhang; Lam, Cheung-Lung; Mo, Wing-Yin; Nie, Xiang-Ping; Choi, Wai-Ming; Man, Yu-Bon; Wong, Ming-Hung

    2016-04-01

    The major purpose of this study was to use different types of food wastes which serve as the major sources of protein to replace the fish meal used in fish feeds to produce quality fish. Two types of food waste-based feed pellets FW A (with cereals) and FW B (with cereals and meat products) and the commercial feed Jinfeng® were used to culture fingerlings of three low-trophic-level fish species: bighead carp, grass carp, and mud carp (in the ratio of 1:3:1) for 1 year period in the Sha Tau Kok Organic Farm in Hong Kong. Heavy metal concentrations in all of the fish species fed with food waste pellets and commercial pellets in Sha Tau Kok fish ponds were all below the local and international maximum permissible levels in food. Health risk assessments indicated that human consumption of the fish fed with food waste feed pellets was safe for the Hong Kong residents. The present results revealed that recycling of food waste for cultivating low-trophic-level fish (mainly herbivores and detritus feeders) is feasible, and at the same time will ease the disposal pressure of food waste, a common problem of densely populated cities like Hong Kong.

  10. Assessing College-Level Learning Difficulties and "At Riskness" for Learning Disabilities and ADHD: Development and Validation of the Learning Difficulties Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Steven T.; Walker, John H.; Schmidt, George R.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the development and validation of the "Learning Difficulties Assessment" (LDA), a normed and web-based survey that assesses perceived difficulties with reading, writing, spelling, mathematics, listening, concentration, memory, organizational skills, sense of control, and anxiety in college students. The LDA is designed to…

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  12. Supplemental information related to risk assessment for the off-site transportation of low-level mixed waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Antonopoulos, A.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Policastro, A.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1996-12-01

    This report provides supplemental information to support the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers both the radioactive and chemical hazards associated with LLMW transportation. Detailed descriptions of the transportation health risk assessment methods and results of the assessment are presented in Appendix E of the WM PEIS. This report presents additional information that is not included in Appendix E but that was needed to conduct the transportation risk assessment for Waste Management (WM) LLMW. Included are definitions of the LLMW alternatives considered in the WM PEIS; data related to the inventory and to the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of WM LLMW; an overview of the risk assessment methods; and detailed results of the assessment for each WM LLMW case considered

  13. Supplemental information related to risk assessment for the off-site transportation of low-level mixed waste for the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.

    1995-04-01

    This report provides supplemental information to support the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers both the radioactive and chemical hazards associated with LLMW transportation. Detailed descriptions of the transportation health risk assessment methods and results of the assessment are presented in Appendix E of the WM PEIS. This report presents additional information that is not included in Appendix E but is necessary to conduct the transportation risk assessment for Waste Management (WM) LLMW. Included are definitions of the LLMW alternatives considered in the WM PEIS; data related to the inventory and to the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of WM LLMW; an overview of the risk assessment methods; and detailed results of the assessment for each WM LLMW case considered

  14. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  15. The "Aachen fall prevention App" - a Smartphone application app for the self-assessment of elderly patients at risk for ground level falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasche, Peter; Mertens, Alexander; Bröhl, Christina; Theis, Sabine; Seinsch, Tobias; Wille, Matthias; Pape, Hans-Christoph; Knobe, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Fall incidents are a major problem for patients and healthcare. The "Aachen Fall Prevention App" (AFPA) represents the first mobile Health (mHealth) application (app) empowering older patients (persons 50+ years) to self-assess and monitor their individual fall risk. Self-assessment is based on the "Aachen Fall Prevention Scale," which consists of three steps. First, patients answer ten standardized yes-no questions (positive criterion ≥ 5 "Yes" responses). Second, a ten-second test of free standing without compensatory movement is performed (positive criterion: compensatory movement). Finally, during the third step, patients rate their subjective fall risk on a 10-point Likert scale, based on the results of steps one and two. The purpose of this app is (1) to offer a low-threshold service through which individuals can independently monitor their individual fall risk and (2) to collect data about how a patient-centered mHealth app for fall risk assessment is used in the field. The results represent the first year of an ongoing field study. From December 2015 to December 2016, 197 persons downloaded the AFPA (iOS ™ and Android ™ ; free of charge). N  = 111 of these persons voluntarily shared their data and thereby participated in the field study. Data from a final number of n  = 79 persons were analyzed due to exclusion criteria (age, missing objective fall risk, missing self-assessment). The objective fall risk and the self-assessed subjective risk measured by the AFPA showed a significant positive relationship. The "Aachen Fall Prevention App" (AFPA) is an mHealth app released for iOS and Android. This field study revealed the AFPA as a promising tool to raise older adults' awareness of their individual fall risk by means of a low-threshold patient-driven fall risk assessment tool.

  16. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  17. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

  18. CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, M. D.

    2016-01-01

    Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

  19. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  20. A TRANSPORTATION RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR ANALYZING THE TRANSPORT OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL AND HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE TO THE PROPOSED YUCCA MOUNTAIN REPOSITORY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) analysis addressed the potential for transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from 77 origins for 34 types of spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste, 49,914 legal weight truck shipments, and 10,911 rail shipments. The analysis evaluated transportation over 59,250 unique shipment links for travel outside Nevada (shipment segments in urban, suburban or rural zones by state), and 22,611 links in Nevada. In addition, the analysis modeled the behavior of 41 isotopes, 1091 source terms, and used 8850 food transfer factors (distinct factors by isotope for each state). The analysis also used mode-specific accident rates for legal weight truck, rail, and heavy haul truck by state, and barge by waterway. This complex mix of data and information required an innovative approach to assess the transportation impacts. The approach employed a Microsoft(reg s ign) Access database tool that incorporated data from many sources, including unit risk factors calculated using the RADTRAN IV transportation risk assessment computer program. Using Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the analysts organized data (such as state-specific accident and fatality rates) into tables and developed queries to obtain the overall transportation impacts. Queries are instructions to the database describing how to use data contained in the database tables. While a query might be applied to thousands of table entries, there is only one sequence of queries that is used to calculate a particular transportation impact. For example, the incident-free dose to off-link populations in a state is calculated by a query that uses route segment lengths for each route in a state that could be used by shipments, populations for each segment, number of shipments on each segment, and an incident-free unit risk factor calculated using RADTRAN IV. In addition to providing a method for using large volumes of data in the calculations, the

  1. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  2. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  6. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  7. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  12. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  13. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  14. Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

  15. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  16. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  17. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  18. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  19. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  20. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  1. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  2. Risk assessment of PCDD/Fs levels in human tissues related to major food items based on chemical analyses and micro-EROD assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, H L; Wu, S C; Wong, C K C; Leung, C K M; Tao, S; Wong, M H

    2009-10-01

    Nine groups of food items (freshwater fish, marine fish, pork, chicken, chicken eggs, leafy, non-leafy vegetables, rice and flour) and three types of human samples (human milk, maternal serum and cord serum) were collected for the analysis of PCDD/Fs. Results of chemical analysis revealed PCDD/Fs concentrations (pg g(-1) fat) in the following ascending order: pork (0.289 pg g(-1) fat), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) (freshwater fish) (0.407), golden thread (Nemipterus virgatus) (marine fish) (0.511), chicken (0.529), mandarin fish (Siniperca kneri) (marine fish) (0.535), chicken egg (0.552), and snubnose pompano (Trachinotus blochii) (marine fish) (1.219). The results of micro-EROD assay showed relatively higher PCDD/Fs levels in fish (2.65 pg g(-1) fat) when compared with pork (0.47), eggs (0.33), chicken (0.13), flour (0.07), vegetables (0.05 pg g(-1) wet wt) and rice (0.05). The estimated average daily intake of PCDD/Fs of 3.51 pg EROD-TEQ/kg bw/day was within the range of WHO Tolerable Daily Intake (1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bw/day) and was higher than the Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTL) (70 pg for dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs) recommended by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) [Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), Summary and conclusions of the fifty-seventh meeting, JECFA, 2001.]. Nevertheless, the current findings were significantly lower than the TDI (14 pg WHO-TEQ/kg/bw/day) recommended by the Scientific Committee on Food of the Europe Commission [European Scientific Committee on Food (EU SCF), Opinions on the SCF on the risk assessment of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in food, 2000.]. However, it should be noted that micro-EROD assay overestimates the PCDD/Fs levels by 2 to 7 folds which may also amplify the PCDD/Fs levels accordingly. Although the levels of PCDD/Fs obtained from micro-EROD assay were much higher than those obtained by chemical analysis by 2 to 7 folds, it provides a cost-effective and

  3. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  4. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  5. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  6. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  7. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  8. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  9. SOT Risk Assessment: Complex mixtures of anti-androgens at concentrations below individual chemical effect levels produces reproductive tract malformations in the male rat

    Science.gov (United States)

    This product is an invited webinar to the Society of Toxicology Risk Assessment Specialty Section (co-hosted by the Mixtures Specialty Section) as part of their monthly webinar series. The webinar is scheduled for 3:00PM on Wednesday September 13th.

  10. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  11. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  12. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  13. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  14. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  15. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  16. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  17. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  19. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  20. Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the US Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.; Chang, Y.S.

    1996-12-01

    This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II) and presents the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

  1. Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.

    1995-04-01

    This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II), as well as providing the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  3. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  4. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  5. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  8. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  9. Assessment of the risk of developing hyperthyroidism in neonates of pregnant women with graves' disease through determination of maternal serum levels of TRAb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Jinhai; Zhang Qingfeng; Wang Jianchun; Yao Qingyun; Bao Jing; Chen Shuangshuang; Guo Guiyou

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To study the risk of developing hyperthyroidism in neonates of women with Graves's disease through determination of maternal serum levels of TRAb. Methods: Serum TRAb TSH levels were measured with CLIA and thyroid hormones levels were measured with RIA in 258 pregnant women with Graves' disease (98 week during gstation period) and their neonates (n=259, with a case of twin-baby) (umbilical blood specimen and neonates' venous specimen) as well as once in 30 normal pregnant women as controls. Results: Of the 258 pregnant women, serum TRAb levels were normal (below 1.75 IU/L) in 146 women and the neonates' serum TRAb levels were also normal. Serum TRAb levels were between 1.75∼8.75 IU/L in 109 women and the neonates' serum TRAb levels were somewhat increased but became normal within 15 days. Only three pregnant women had serum TRAb levels above 8.75 IU/L and two of their neonates were frankly hyperthyroid, requiring ATD treatment. Conclusion: Monitoring serum TRAb levels in pregnant women with history of Graves' disease is desirable. Neonates from those with high serum TRAb levels should be examined carefully for possible development of hyperthyroidism. (authors)

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  12. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  13. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  14. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  15. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  18. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  19. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  20. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  1. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  2. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessment of risk associated with long-term corrosion of alloy 22 and Ti-7 in the potential yucca mountain high-level nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, T.M.; Pensado, O.; Dunn, D.

    2004-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The potential high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository at Yucca Mountain (YM) may rely on the robustness of the outer container of the waste package (WP) as one of many barriers for waste isolation. The container is proposed to be constructed of Alloy 22, a Ni-Cr-Mo alloy known to be resistant to localized corrosion and stress corrosion cracking. Additionally, drip shields (DS) will be emplaced above the WP to minimize the groundwater contact, in the form of seepage, with the WP. The candidate alloy to construct the drip shields is a titanium based alloy (Ti-7) with some small amounts of Pd and is also known for resistance to localized corrosion. To enhance confidence of long-term WP and DS lifetimes, it is necessary to assess the conditions under which loss of passivity or localized degradation processes could occur. The accelerated degradation processes may include uniform passivity breakdown, localized corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking. This paper evaluates how such processes may occur under the long-term YM repository conditions. In the uniform passivity breakdown, three potential concerns are evaluated. The first is anodic sulphur segregation at the interface between the passive film and the bare metal. This paper models the cyclic behavior of free transient fast dissolution (induced by sulfur segregation) and re-passivation. The second is the potential accumulation of corrosion products on the WP surface, which may act as cathode of large surface area leading to fast corrosion. The effective ratio of the corrosion product area to the bare metal area is evaluated. The third is the ion selectivity in the corrosion products to alter the aqueous chemistry, which may accelerate or inhibit the corrosion. Thermodynamics of ionic sorption in the corrosion products is reviewed. In the localized corrosion, the groundwater chemistry on the WP surface is evaluated at the temperatures of the WP above 100 deg. C during the early

  4. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  5. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  6. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  8. Assessment of gender-related differences in vitamin D levels and cardiovascular risk factors in Saudi patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manal Abudawood

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD including stroke, coronary heart disease, and peripheral artery disease. It remains a leading cause of mortality throughout the world, affecting both women and men. This investigation was aimed to study gender based differences in cardiovascular risk factors of adult population with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM and to check the correlation between serum HbA1C, lipid profile and serum vitamin D levels, in T2DM patients of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This hospital-based cross-sectional study involving subjects was divided into two gender based groups; normal male (800, diabetic male (800 and normal female (800 and T2DM females (800. Blood samples were analyzed for fasting glucose (FBG, HbA1c, total cholesterol (TC, triglycerides (Tg, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and serum levels of 25(OH-vitamin D in all groups. All the glycemic control parameters and lipid profile parameters were found to be significantly different in diabetic vs non-diabetic group (p < 0.001 in both genders. The results also show that vitamin D concentration decreased significantly (p < 0.001 in diabetic patients than the healthy individuals in both the genders. Vitamin-D and HbA1C were negatively correlated in both males and females in T2DM patients and significant at P < 0.05. Our study reveals that dyslipidemia remains one of the major risk factors of CVD in T2DM. In addition to dyslipidemia, decreased levels of vitamin-D associated with increased HbA1C alarms the early diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes.

  9. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  10. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Low-level radiation risks in people

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goloman, M.; Filjushkin, V. lgor

    1993-01-01

    Using the limited human data plus the relationships derived from the laboratory, a leukemia risk model has been developed as well as a suggested model for other cancers in people exposed to low levels of radiation. Theoretical experimental and epidemiological evidence will be presented in an integrated stochastic model for projection of radiation-induced cancer risks

  12. Scoring methods and results for qualitative evaluation of public health impacts from the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Integrated Risk Assessment Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, J.W.; Gelston, G.M.; Farris, W.T.

    1995-09-01

    The objective of this analysis is to qualitatively rank the Hanford Site high-level waste (HLW) tanks according to their potential public health impacts through various (groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric) exposure pathways. Data from all 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 23 of the 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs) in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program were analyzed for chemical and radiological carcinogenic as well as chemical noncarcinogenic health impacts. The preliminary aggregate score (PAS) ranking system was used to generate information from various release scenarios. Results based on the PAS ranking values should be considered relative health impacts rather than absolute risk values

  13. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  14. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  15. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  16. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  17. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  18. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  19. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  2. Reducing substance use and risky sexual behaviour among drug users in Durban, South Africa: Assessing the impact of community-level risk-reduction interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, C D H; Carney, T; Petersen Williams, P

    2017-12-01

    Alcohol and other drug (AOD) use is increasingly recognised as having a direct and indirect effect on the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, there is evidence to suggest that drug- and sex-related HIV risk-reduction interventions targeted at drug users within drug treatment centres or via community outreach efforts can lead to positive health outcomes. This study aimed to test whether a community-level intervention aimed at AOD users has an impact on risky AOD use and sexual risk behaviour. In 2007, in collaboration with a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Durban, an initiative was begun to implement a number of harm reduction strategies for injection and non-injection drug users. The NGO recruited peer outreach workers who received intensive initial training, which was followed by six-monthly monitoring and evaluation of their performance. Participants had to be 16 years of age or older, and self-reported alcohol and/or drug users. Peer outreach workers completed a face-to-face baseline questionnaire with participants which recorded risk behaviours and a risk-reduction plan was developed with participants which consisted of reducing injection (if applicable) and non-injection drug use and sex-related risks. Other components of the intervention included distribution of condoms, risk-reduction counselling, expanded access to HIV Testing Services, HIV/sexually transmitted infection care and treatment, and referrals to substance abuse treatment and social services. At follow-up, the baseline questionnaire was completed again and participants were also asked the frequency of reducing identified risk behaviours. Baseline information was collected from 138 drug users recruited into the study through community-based outreach, and who were subsequently followed up between 2010 and 2012. No injection drug users were reached. The data presented here are for first contact (baseline) and the final follow-up contact with the participants

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  5. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  6. Assessment of cow and farm level risk factors associated with Ureaplasma diversum in pasture-based dairy systems - A field study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOSEFA M. NASCIMENTO-ROCHA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Potential risk factors for Ureaplasma diversum in the vaginal mucus of 1,238 dairy cows were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, based on the cow level (i.e., granular vulvovaginitis [+GVV], yearly milk production [4500 kg or more], pregnancy, predominance of Bos taurus [+Bos Taurus], score of corporal condition [at least 2.5], concomitant positivity for Escherichia coli [+E.coli], and farm level i.e., milking room hygiene (-Milking room, dunghill location, and replacement female. Ureaplasma diversum was present in 41.1% of the samples. Independent risk factors for U. diversum were +GVV (odds ratio [OR], 1.31; +Mycoplasma spp (OR, 5.67; yearly milk production (4500 kg or more (OR, 1.99; +Bos taurus (OR, 1.68; +E. coli (OR, 4.96; -milking room (OR, 2.31; and replacement females (OR, 1.89. Ureaplasma diversum vaginal colonization was strongly associated with Mycoplasma spp., E. coli, and number of pregnant cows.

  7. Assessment of cow and farm level risk factors associated with Ureaplasma diversum in pasture-based dairy systems - A field study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nascimento-Rocha, Josefa M; Oliveira, Benedito D DE; Arnhold, Emannuel; Pôrto, Regiani N G; Lima, Svetlana F; Gambarini, Maria Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Potential risk factors for Ureaplasma diversum in the vaginal mucus of 1,238 dairy cows were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, based on the cow level (i.e., granular vulvovaginitis [+GVV], yearly milk production [4500 kg or more], pregnancy, predominance of Bos taurus [+Bos Taurus], score of corporal condition [at least 2.5], concomitant positivity for Escherichia coli [+E.coli]), and farm level i.e., milking room hygiene (-Milking room), dunghill location, and replacement female). Ureaplasma diversum was present in 41.1% of the samples. Independent risk factors for U. diversum were +GVV (odds ratio [OR], 1.31); +Mycoplasma spp (OR, 5.67); yearly milk production (4500 kg or more) (OR, 1.99); +Bos taurus (OR, 1.68); +E. coli (OR, 4.96); -milking room (OR, 2.31); and replacement females (OR, 1.89). Ureaplasma diversum vaginal colonization was strongly associated with Mycoplasma spp., E. coli, and number of pregnant cows.

  8. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  9. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  10. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

  11. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  12. Towards multi-level biomonitoring of nematodes to assess risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in Jinchuan Wetland of Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yunbiao; Qiao, Jie; He, Chunguang; Wang, Zhongqiang; Luo, Wenbo; Sheng, Lianxi

    2015-12-01

    Cultivation for agricultural production often poses threats to nearby wetlands ecosystems in fertile landscapes. In this study, nematode ecological indexes were assessed through the main soil properties of the wetlands, farmlands, and edges of wetlands and farmlands in Jinchuan Wetland by the random sampling. Behavior and reproduction in Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) exposed to the sampled waters were also examined. Stress proteins Hsp70 and Hsp90 were measured both in the living field samples of C. elegans and the lab-tested C. elegans. Our results suggested that disturbance to wetland ecosystems by nitrogen and phosphorus reduced nematode richness and proportions of bacterivore nematodes. Bacterivore nematode diversity and plant-parasitic ecological index were proven to be sensitive indicators of the ecological health of wetlands. Nematode Hsp70 were useful biosensors to monitor and assess the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus pollutions in wetlands. Furthermore, multi-level soil faunal assessments by canonical correspondence analysis showed that Jinchuan Wetland is threatened with non-point source pollution from nearby farmlands.

  13. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  14. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  15. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  16. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  17. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  18. A Transportation Risk Assessment Tool for Analyzing the Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste to the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Best, Ralph; Winnard, T.; Ross, S.; Best, R.

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Transportation Database was developed as a data management tool for assembling and integrating data from multiple sources to compile the potential transportation impacts presented in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada (DEIS). The database uses the results from existing models and codes such as RADTRAN, RISKIND, INTERLINE, and HIGHWAY to estimate transportation-related impacts of transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from commercial reactors and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities to Yucca Mountain. The source tables in the database are compendiums of information from many diverse sources including: radionuclide quantities for each waste type; route and route characteristics for rail, legal-weight truck, heavy haul. truck, and barge transport options; state-specific accident and fatality rates for routes selected for analysis; packaging and shipment data by waste type; unit risk factors; the complex behavior of the packaged waste forms in severe transport accidents; and the effects of exposure to radiation or the isotopic specific effects of radionclides should they be released in severe transportation accidents. The database works together with the codes RADTRAN (Neuhauser, et al, 1994) and RISKlND (Yuan, et al, 1995) to calculate incident-free dose and accident risk. For the incident-free transportation scenario, the database uses RADTRAN and RISKIND-generated data to calculate doses to offlink populations, onlink populations, people at stops, crews, inspectors, workers at intermodal transfer stations, guards at overnight stops, and escorts, as well as non-radioactive pollution health effects. For accident scenarios, the database uses RADTRAN-generated data to calculate dose risks based on ingestion, inhalation, resuspension, immersion (cloudshine), and groundshine as

  19. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  20. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  1. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  3. Landfill waste and recycling: Use of a screening-level risk assessment tool for end-of-life cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film photovoltaic (PV) panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyrs, William D.; Avens, Heather J.; Capshaw, Zachary A.; Kingsbury, Robert A.; Sahmel, Jennifer; Tvermoes, Brooke E.

    2014-01-01

    Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) power is currently one of the fastest growing power-generation technologies in the world. While PV technologies provide the environmental benefit of zero emissions during use, the use of heavy metals in thin-film PV cells raises important health and environmental concerns regarding the end-of-life disposal of PV panels. To date, there is no published quantitative assessment of the potential human health risk due to cadmium leaching from cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV panels disposed in a landfill. Thus, we used a screening-level risk assessment tool to estimate possible human health risk associated with disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. In addition, we conducted a literature review of potential cadmium release from the recycling process in order to contrast the potential health risks from PV panel disposal in landfills to those from PV panel recycling. Based on the results of our literature review, a meaningful risk comparison cannot be performed at this time. Based on the human health risk estimates generated for PV panel disposal, our assessment indicated that landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes, although our results pointed to the importance of CdTe PV panel end-of-life management. - Highlights: • Analysis of possible human health risk posed by disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. • Qualitative comparison of risks associated with landfill disposal and recycling of CdTe panels. • Landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes. • There could be potential risks associated with recycling if not properly managed. • Factors other than concerns over toxic substances will likely drive the decisions of how to manage end-of-life PV panels

  4. Risk assessment methods for life cycle costing in buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oduyemi Olufolahan

    2016-01-01

    Originality/value. This paper contributes with new outlooks aimed at assessing the current level of awareness, usage and advocated benefits of risk assessment methods in LCC and adds to the limited empirical studies on risk assessment to corporate occupants and decision makers.

  5. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  6. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  7. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  8. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  9. Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  10. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  11. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  13. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  16. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Control of System with Defined Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavol Tomasov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

  18. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  19. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  20. Caries Risk Assessment in School Children Using Reduced Cariogram Model

    OpenAIRE

    Taqi, Muhammad; Razak, Ishak Abdul; Ab-Murat, Norintan

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the percentage of children with low, moderate and high caries risk; and to determine the predictors of caries risk amongst 11-12 year old Pakistani school children. Methods: Subjects’ caries risk was assessed using the Cariogram programme. The survey was done among school children in Bhakkar district of Punjab, Pakistan. Caries and plaque level were assessed using the DMFT and Sillnes and Loe indices respectively, while diet content and frequency were assessed using a t...

  1. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  2. Association between Serum Osteopontin Levels and Cardiovascular Risk in Hypothyrodism

    OpenAIRE

    Türkan Mete; Gülhan Duman; Eda Melek Ertörer; Emre Bozkırlı; Okan Sefa Bakıner; Neslihan Başçıl Tütüncü

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Cardiovascular effects of hypothyroidism are well known. Osteopontin (OPN) is a new inflammatory marker which was first isolated from the bone. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), a noninvasive technique to measure this endothelium-dependent function, has been used in several clinical studies to show cardiovascular risks. The aim of our study was to assess FMD value in hypothyroidism patients and to investigate whether plasma OPN level is a parameter which can predict cardiovascular risk...

  3. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  5. The importance of radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    In its Publication 26, ICRP recommends a system of radiation dose limitation that is designed to ensure adequate protection from the harmful effects of radiation in conditions both of occupational and of environmental exposure. Clearly, however, no such system can be recommended or accepted as sufficiently safe unless the risks of the resultant exposures have been quantitatively assessed. Publication 26 reflects the increasing quantitative information that is now available on (a) carcinogenic risks of radiation in man, both from exposure of the whole body and from that of individual organs, at moderate exposures; (b) theoretical bases for inference of risk, from moderate to lower exposures; (c) genetic risks in the mouse, and inferences from such risks to those in man; (d) the dose equivalent levels at which certain non-stochastic effects may be induced. Despite a number of uncertainties, substantially improved estimates can therefore be made of the levels of safety that are likely to be achieved by observing the Commission's recommended dose limits, and the associated system of limitation of exposures to levels as low as reasonably achievable below these limits. Both for occupational exposure and for the exposure of the members of the public, these estimates are expressed in Publication 26 in terms of the risk of inducing fatal malignancies or serious hereditary ill health. These frequencies are compared with those of occupational fatalities in other industries or with accidental fatalities amongst the general public. The comparison between harm from radiation and from other agents in different industries is extended in ICRP-27 (on ''Problems Involved in Developing an Index of Harm'') in a review of the time lost through occupational diseases and non-fatal accidents, as well as from fatal diseases and accidents, so that the levels of safety achievable by the Commission's recommendations can be reviewed in the general perspective of occupational safety. (author)

  6. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  7. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  8. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  9. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  10. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  12. Determination of risk factors and level of awareness of caprine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Oju, goats are the major livestock kept and there is a well established goat market held every five days. This study was aimed at determining the risk factors associated with caprine brucellosis and assessing level of awareness amongst goat owners in Oju Local Government Area (LGA) of Benue State using a structured ...

  13. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  14. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  15. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  16. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  18. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  19. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  20. Advancing the Contribution of Occupational Epidemiology to Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlaanderen, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The identification and quantification of risk factors that are characterized by low exposure levels, moderately increased risks, and unspecific exposure-disease relations is a major challenge facing risk assessment today. Occupational epidemiological studies can play a role in addressing this

  1. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  2. The Development of an Effective Transportation Risk Assessment Model for Analyzing the Transport of Spent Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste to the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McSweeney, Thomas; Winnard, Thomas; Ross, Steven B.; Best, Ralph E.

    2001-01-01

    Past approaches for assessing the impacts of transporting spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste have not been effectively implemented or have used relatively simple approaches. The Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) analysis considers 83 origins, 34 fuel types, 49,914 legal weight truck shipments, 10,911 rail shipments, consisting of 59,250 shipment links outside Nevada (shipment kilometers and population density pairs through urban, suburban or rural zones by state), and 22,611 shipment links in Nevada. There was additional complexity within the analysis. The analysis modeled the behavior of 41 isotopes, 1091 source terms, and used 8850 food transfer factors (distinct factors by isotope for each state). The model also considered different accident rates for legal weight truck, rail, and heavy haul truck by state, and barge by waterway. To capture the all of the complexities of the transportation analysis, a Microsoft(reg s ign) Access database was created. In the Microsoft(reg s ign) Access approach the data is placed in individual tables and equations are developed in queries to obtain the overall impacts. While the query might be applied to thousands of table entries, there is only one equation for a particular impact. This greatly simplifies the validation effort. Furthermore, in Access, data in tables can be linked automatically using query joins. Another advantage built into MS Access is nested queries, or the ability to develop query hierarchies. It is possible to separate the calculation into a series of steps, each step represented by a query. For example, the first query might calculate the number of shipment kilometers traveled through urban, rural and suburban zones for all states. Subsequent queries could join the shipment kilometers query results with another table containing the state and mode specific accident rate to produce accidents by state. One of the biggest advantages of the nested queries is in validation

  3. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  4. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  5. Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

  6. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  7. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  8. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  9. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  10. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymer, P.; Kaiser, G.D.; Mc Kelvey, T.C.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  12. Ecotoxicity assessment at three tropical levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.S.; Siti Aishah Asmah Yusob; Wan Mazlina Wan Hussein; Izham Bakar; Zulkarnain Abdullah

    2001-01-01

    Several ecotoxicity test methods have been standardised to ensure international acceptance of data for predicting environmental risk of chemical substances. Test organism, concentration exposure duration, and end point effects are fundamental consideration in these methods. While concentration-exposure and end-point effect such as 96 LC 50 are easily decided, the choice of test organism species is more complex. The aquatic ecosystem for example is teemed with multitude of species that may show differing response to the same toxicant or pollutant. The basic tests recommended by OECD includes three functionally important types of organisms namely alga, daphnia, and fish that represent three trophical levels. Alga presenting the phytoplankton level is food to daphnia, a zooplankton that is in turn food to fishes. Daphnia species hardly thrives in the tropical environment and is replaced instead by Moina sp. of the same Cladoceran order. The sensitivity of the three types of organisms differs. The LC 50 /EC 50 values of cadmium chloride for tilapia, moina macrocopa and chlorella vulgaris (alga) range from 30 mg/1 to 0.2 mg/1 with moina macrocopa being the most sensitive. The least resistant species is not necessarily at the lowest trophical level. Tests on industrial effluents gave similar trends. Wastewater from an industrial drain that received discharge from chemical-based industries generated the lowest EC 50 for moina macrocopa at 0.1%, algae at 0.3% and tilapia at 2.4%. Effluent from a paper processing factory however did not yield any EC 50 value for moina while fish and alga had LC 50 and EC 50 values of 44% and 0.005%, respectively. The trends of acute toxicity tests on fish, moina and alga illustrate the necessity of conducting ecotoxicological testings on at least these three trophical levels. Assessment can be made based on the most sensitive species to ensure protection of the ecosystem through conservation of the food chain cycle. (Author)

  13. The information protection level assessment system implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapeznikov, E. V.

    2018-04-01

    Currently, the threat of various attacks increases significantly as automated systems become more widespread. On the basis of the conducted analysis the information protection level assessment system establishing objective was identified. The paper presents the information protection level assessment software implementation in the information system by applying the programming language C #. In conclusions the software features are identified and experimental results are represented.

  14. Teachers' Self-Assessed Level of Preparation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Susan

    2013-01-01

    We asked high school physics teachers to assess their level of preparation across a number of domains. Almost all (98%) reported feeling adequately or well prepared in terms of their basic physics knowledge. The chart presents teachers' responses to their self-assessed level of preparation in six different areas. Almost all feel at least…

  15. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  16. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  17. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  18. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  19. Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

  20. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  1. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  2. Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas J. Shinneman; Brian J. Palik; Meredith W. Cornett

    2012-01-01

    Management strategies to restore forest landscapes are often designed to concurrently reduce fire risk. However, the compatibility of these two objectives is not always clear, and uncoordinated management among landowners may have unintended consequences. We used a forest landscape simulation model to compare the effects of contemporary management and hypothetical...

  3. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  4. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  5. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  6. Procedures for conducting probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants (level 3). Off-site consequences and estimation of risks to the public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    This report is concerned with the analysis of the release of radionuclides and their transfer through the environment, and with the assessment of the public health and economic consequences of an accident. 65 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab

  7. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  8. Oral Assessment Kit, Levels II & III. Draft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrelo-Gonzalez, Maria; And Others

    The assessment packet includes a series of oral tests to help develop speaking as an integral part of second language instruction at levels II and III. It contains: 8 mini-tests for use at level II; 9 mini-tests for use at level III; a rating scale and score sheet masters for evaluating performance on these tests; and a collection of suggested…

  9. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  10. An evaluation of naturally occurring levels of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in a small city and the impact on clean-up criteria and risk assessment - a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cramer, C.A.; Lund, K.D. [Geraghty & Miller, Inc., Novi, MI (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Geraghty & Miller, Inc. conducted an investigation of potential manufactured gas plant (MGP) impacts at a site in a small city in the midwestern United States. Published literature pertaining to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in surface soils in urban environments has focused mainly on large historically urban areas. As a result, it has been difficult to correlate PAH levels encountered in surface soils during evaluations of MGP sites to typical urban background levels. An investigation completed by Geraghty & Miller of an MGP site in a city with a population of approximately 40 000 has shown that background levels of PAHs can range from non-detectable levels to as high as 44 milligrams/kilogram (mg/kg). The detailed surface-soil evaluation was necessary because a portion of the former MGP property is currently a residential apartment complex and is used as a playground for an elementary school. The regulatory agency required characterization of surface soils for MGP-indicator parameters such as PAHs, metals, cyanide, and volatile organics such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX). Although the levels of total PAHs ranged as high as 31.5 mg/kg, Geraghty & Miller`s experience with similar sites suggested that the detected levels were likely indicative of urban background conditions. Many of the PAHs in urban soils are from recent activities not old industries. Before soil remediation current pollution sources should be checked.

  11. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  12. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  13. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  14. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  15. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  16. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  17. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  20. Stochastic curtailment of questionnaires for three-level classification: Shortening the CES-D for assessing low, moderate, and high risk of depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, N.; Finkelman, M.D.; Kelderman, H.

    2016-01-01

    In clinical assessment, efficient screeners are needed to ensure low respondent burden. In this article, Stochastic Curtailment (SC), a method for efficient computerized testing for classification into two classes for observable outcomes, was extended to three classes. In a post hoc simulation study

  1. Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

  2. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyofuku, Hajime . E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world

  3. Cancer risk in relation to serum copper levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, R J; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R; Rettmer, R L; Warnick, G R

    1989-08-01

    A nested, matched case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between serum levels of copper and the subsequent risk of cancer. One hundred thirty-three cases of cancer were identified during 1974-1984 among 5000 members of a northwest Washington State employee cohort from whom serum specimens had been previously obtained and stored. Two hundred forty-one controls were selected at random from the cohort and were matched to the cases on the basis of age, sex, race, and date of blood draw. Serum copper levels were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of cancer was positively associated with serum copper levels, but only among those cases diagnosed within 4 years of the time the serum specimens were collected. Among cases diagnosed more than 4 years after specimen collection, there was no consistent association between serum copper levels and risk. Adjustment for age, sex, race, occupational status, cigarette smoking, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption, and, among females, use of exogenous hormones had no appreciable effect on these relationships. The findings suggest that the presence of cancer may increase serum copper levels several years prior to its diagnosis. They are less supportive of the hypothesis that serum copper levels affect cancer risk.

  4. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  5. Statement on the suitability of the BEEHAVE model for its potential use in a regulatory context and for the risk assessment of multiple stressors in honeybees at the landscape level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA PPR Panel (EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues); Topping, Christopher John

    2015-01-01

    The Panel has interpreted the Terms of Reference by carrying out a stepwise evaluation of the BEEHAVE simulation model with a view to assessing its suitability for use in a regulatory context and for risk assessment of multiple stressors at the landscape level. The EFSA opinion on good modelling...... practice was used to evaluate the model and its documentation systematically. The overall conclusion is that BEEHAVE performs well in modelling honeybee colony dynamics, and the supporting documentation is generally good but does not fully meet the criteria of the good modelling opinion. BEEHAVE is not yet...... of the effects of interactions of pesticides with multiple stressors. BEEHAVE currently uses a very simple representation of a landscape and this should be extended. There is only one environmental scenario in the present version of BEEHAVE (European central zone—weather scenarios for Germany and the UK...

  6. Transparency, consultation and conflict: Assessing the micro-level risks surrounding the drive to develop Peru's Amazonian oil and gas resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haselip, James Arthur

    2011-01-01

    . In the case of Peru, this is especially relevant to the vast areas of ecologically sensitive and previously under-developed Amazonia that are now under concession to oil and gas companies. Low levels of industry transparency combined with a lack of uniform free, prior and informed consent are exacerbating...

  7. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  8. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  9. Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkle, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

  10. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  11. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  12. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  13. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  14. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  15. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  16. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  17. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  18. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  19. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  20. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  1. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  3. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  4. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  5. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  6. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  7. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  8. Citizenship approach to promote a radiological protection and risk assessment culture at the school level; educational project in Belarus and French schools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Autret, J.C.; Josset, M.

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In the framework of the international C.O.R.E. programme (Cooperation for Rehabilitation of living conditions in Chernobyl affected areas in Belarus), an educational project was launched in 2004 meant so that the pupils of the Bragin district schools (in the south east of Belarus) will get involved in learning the practice of a radiological culture. Since the damages of radioactivity are cumulative, it is important to reduce the inhabitants daily intake of radioactivity. In the daily life, the understanding of radioactivity issues and the current recommendations concerning food and the environment are not always applied and accessible to the public. By showing that monitoring could help them to reduce the dose of radioactive elements, this project aims at breaking a fatalistic turn of mind. A steady radioecological education is the key element in establishing a practical radiological culture within the population. This project is essentially centred on children who represent both the future generation and the most sensitive group among contaminated by the radioactive effect. Children represent also the best way to realise in -depth contact with the whole population. To facilitate the development of the educational projects, Belarus teams of teachers will receive in -depth expert training in cooperation of the local professionals which will enable them to become active participants in conceiving and carrying out their own educational projects. A more specific training, concerning radiation protection is also be implemented by our N.G.O., with the help of the local organisation Rastok Gesne (Sprout of Life N.G.O.). The pedagogic actions are based on a complete and active involvement of the children and within an interdisciplinary approach will make it possible to include the different activities linked to radiological culture, and more widely, all the other aspects of living in a contaminated area so as to be able to face the risk

  9. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  10. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  11. Spatial distribution and risk assessment of radioactivity and heavy metal levels of sediment, surface water and fish samples from Lake Van, Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sema Erenturk; Zeyneb Camtakan

    2014-01-01

    In this study, radioactivity levels of 228 lake water samples, 63 upper and depth sediment samples and 12 fish samples from Lake Van were investigated from 2005 to 2008 and the distribution patterns of the radionuclides were presented. Analysis included gross alpha-beta and total radium isotopes activities and uranium concentrations of the water, and gross alpha and gross beta activities and relevant 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K activity of the sediment and fish samples of the lake. Mean gross alpha, gross beta and radium isotopes activities of lake water were found 0.74 ± 0.46, 0.02 ± 0.01 and 0.06 ± 0.04 Bq/L, respectively. Mean gross alpha and beta activities in upper and depth sediments were found to be 41 ± 6 and 1,514 ± 74 Bq/kg; 77 ± 5 and 394 ± 24 Bq/kg at a 95 % confidence level, respectively. Mean activities of 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K activity concentrations in upper and depth sediments were determined to be 225 ± 22, 70 ± 7 and 486 ± 39 Bq/kg; 174 ± 4, 63 ± 3 and 263 ± 25 Bq/kg, respectively. The mean gross alpha and beta, 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K activities in fish samples were established as 47 ± 18, 470 ± 12, 0.57 ± 0.220, 0.022 ± 0.006, 319 ± 11 Bq/kg, respectively. The transfer factor from lake water to fish tissues, annual intake by humans consuming fish, and annual committed effective doses were estimated and evaluated. (author)

  12. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  13. Process for Selecting System Level Assessments for Human System Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, James; Park, John

    2006-01-01

    The integration of many life support systems necessary to construct a stable habitat is difficult. The correct identification of the appropriate technologies and corresponding interfaces is an exhaustive process. Once technologies are selected secondary issues such as mechanical and electrical interfaces must be addressed. The required analytical and testing work must be approached in a piecewise fashion to achieve timely results. A repeatable process has been developed to identify and prioritize system level assessments and testing needs. This Assessment Selection Process has been defined to assess cross cutting integration issues on topics at the system or component levels. Assessments are used to identify risks, encourage future actions to mitigate risks, or spur further studies.

  14. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy

    1999-01-01

    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  15. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  16. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  17. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  18. Imposex levels and butyltin compounds (BTs) in Hexaplex trunculus (Linnaeus, 1758) from the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy): Ecological risk assessment before and after the ban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciatore, Federica; Boscolo Brusà, Rossella; Noventa, Seta; Antonini, Camilla; Moschino, Vanessa; Formalewicz, Malgorzata; Gion, Claudia; Berto, Daniela; Gabellini, Massimo; Marin, Maria Gabriella

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare imposex and butyltin compounds (BTs) data, collected before and after the organotin ban in 2008, in order to assess temporal and spatial variation of the phenomenon, the decline of BT contamination, and the effects on Hexaplex trunculus population in the coastal area of the northern Adriatic Sea, close to the Venice Lagoon. Both in marine and in lagoon sites, the results obtained in 2013-2015 showed a significant decline in the incidence of imposex in respect to those from the 2002 survey. In 2002, lagoon samples exhibited Relative Penis Size Index (RPSI) higher than marine samples, whereas no differences were detected in the recent survey, when all RPSI values were below 0.6%. Vas Deference Sequence Index (VDSI) mean values were over 4 before the ban introduction and below this value after that, indicating more critical conditions for gastropod population in 2002 rather than in 2013-15. Percentage of sterile females was up to 69% in 2002, whilst in the more recent survey no sterile female was found. Range of BT concentrations in gastropods decreased from 252 to 579 to 16-31ng∑BT/g d.w. BT body burdens varied according to a gender dependant pattern, with higher concentrations observed in females than in males. A first attempt to propose a classification based on BT impact on H. trunculus, according to the Water Framework Directive, revealed that most sites were in Bad ecological status before the ban and attained a Poor/Moderate status after that. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  20. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  1. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  2. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  4. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  5. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dourson, M.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  6. Exposure level of ergonomic risk factors in hotel industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd; Syahir Muhamad Jaffar, Mohd; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Zamani Ngali, Mohd; Pauline, Ong

    2017-08-01

    Ergonomic Risk Factors (ERFs) which contribute to Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) among room attendants were considered as a problem or trouble since these ERFs would affect their work performance for hotel industries. The purpose of this study was to examine the exposure level of ERFs among room attendants in hotel industries. 65 of respondents were obtained from selected hotels in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected by direct observation via Workplace Ergonomic Risk Assessment (WERA) and Quick Exposure Checklist (QEC). There were 36 males and 29 females room attendants involved throughout the research. Most of room attendants experienced high exposure level for back, leg, forceful and vibration based on the exposure level evaluation through WERA while QEC results showed that all room attendants were found to have moderate exposure level for risk factors including back for movement use, shoulders/arms, wrists/hands and neck. All the results obtained showed that the related ERFs for MSDs were associated and essential ergonomic interventions are needed in order to eliminate risk of exposures to MSDs among room attendants in hotel industries.

  7. Viability testing of material derived from Mycobacterium tuberculosis prior to removal from a containment level-III laboratory as part of a Laboratory Risk Assessment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwood, Kym S; Burdz, Tamara V; Turenne, Christine Y; Sharma, Meenu K; Kabani, Amin M; Wolfe, Joyce N

    2005-01-24

    In the field of clinical mycobacteriology, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) can be a difficult organism to manipulate due to the restrictive environment of a containment level 3 (CL3) laboratory. Tests for rapid diagnostic work involving smears and molecular methods do not require CL3 practices after the organism has been rendered non-viable. While it has been assumed that after organism deactivation these techniques can be performed outside of a CL3, no conclusive study has consistently confirmed that the organisms are noninfectious after the theoretical 'deactivation' steps. Previous studies have shown that initial steps (such as heating/chemical fixation) may not consistently kill MTB organisms. An inclusive viability study (n = 226) was undertaken to determine at which point handling of culture extraction materials does not necessitate a CL3 environment. Four different laboratory protocols tested for viability included: standard DNA extractions for IS6110 fingerprinting, crude DNA preparations for PCR by boiling and mechanical lysis, protein extractions, and smear preparations. For each protocol, laboratory staff planted a proportion of the resulting material to Bactec 12B medium that was observed for growth for 8 weeks. Of the 208 isolates initially tested, 21 samples grew within the 8-week period. Sixteen (7.7%) of these yielded positive results for MTB that included samples of: deactivated culture resuspensions exposed to 80 degrees C for 20 minutes, smear preparations and protein extractions. Test procedures were consequently modified and tested again (n = 18), resulting in 0% viability. This study demonstrates that it cannot be assumed that conventional practices (i.e. smear preparation) or extraction techniques render the organism non-viable. All methodologies, new and existing, should be examined by individual laboratories to validate the safe removal of material derived from MTB to the outside of a CL3 laboratory. This process is vital to establish in

  8. Viability testing of material derived from Mycobacterium tuberculosis prior to removal from a Containment Level-III Laboratory as part of a Laboratory Risk Assessment Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabani Amin M

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the field of clinical mycobacteriology, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB can be a difficult organism to manipulate due to the restrictive environment of a containment level 3 (CL3 laboratory. Tests for rapid diagnostic work involving smears and molecular methods do not require CL3 practices after the organism has been rendered non-viable. While it has been assumed that after organism deactivation these techniques can be performed outside of a CL3, no conclusive study has consistently confirmed that the organisms are noninfectious after the theoretical 'deactivation' steps. Previous studies have shown that initial steps (such as heating /chemical fixation may not consistently kill MTB organisms. Methods An inclusive viability study (n = 226 was undertaken to determine at which point handling of culture extraction materials does not necessitate a CL3 environment. Four different laboratory protocols tested for viability included: standard DNA extractions for IS6110 fingerprinting, crude DNA preparations for PCR by boiling and mechanical lysis, protein extractions, and smear preparations. For each protocol, laboratory staff planted a proportion of the resulting material to Bactec 12B medium that was observed for growth for 8 weeks. Results Of the 208 isolates initially tested, 21 samples grew within the 8-week period. Sixteen (7.7% of these yielded positive results for MTB that included samples of: deactivated culture resuspensions exposed to 80°C for 20 minutes, smear preparations and protein extractions. Test procedures were consequently modified and tested again (n = 18, resulting in 0% viability. Conclusions This study demonstrates that it cannot be assumed that conventional practices (i.e. smear preparation or extraction techniques render the organism non-viable. All methodologies, new and existing, should be examined by individual laboratories to validate the safe removal of material derived from MTB to the outside of a

  9. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  10. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  11. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leyla V. Kaufman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  12. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  13. Assessing the risks from exposure to radon in dwellings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, P.J.; Lowder, W.M.

    1983-07-01

    The factors used to assess the radiation dose and health risks from human exposure to radon in dwellings are critically reviewed in this summary. Sources of indoor radon and determinants of air concentrations and exposure levels are given as well as the uncertainties that exist in their formulation. Methods of assessing health effects from inhalation of radon and its progeny are discussed with emphasis on dosimetry of radon daughters and formulation of risk per dose values. Finally, methods of assessing risks for general population exposures to indoor radon concentrations are treated

  14. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  15. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  16. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....