WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk integrated methodology

  1. Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nesterenko Oksana O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

  2. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  3. Screening radon risks: A methodology for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisinger, D.S.; Simmons, R.A.; Lammering, M.; Sotiros, R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper provides an easy-to-use screening methodology to estimate potential excess lifetime lung cancer risk resulting from indoor radon exposure. The methodology was developed under U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation sponsorship of the agency's Integrated Environmental Management Projects (IEMP) and State/Regional Comparative Risk Projects. These projects help policymakers understand and use scientific data to develop environmental problem-solving strategies. This research presents the risk assessment methodology, discusses its basis, and identifies appropriate applications. The paper also identifies assumptions built into the methodology and qualitatively addresses methodological uncertainties, the direction in which these uncertainties could bias analyses, and their relative importance. The methodology draws from several sources, including risk assessment formulations developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Radiation Programs, the EPA's Integrated Environmental Management Project (Denver), the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. When constructed as a spreadsheet program, the methodology easily facilitates analyses and sensitivity studies (the paper includes several sensitivity study options). The methodology will be most helpful to those who need to make decisions concerning radon testing, public education, and exposure prevention and mitigation programs.26 references

  4. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  5. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  6. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  7. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  8. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  9. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  10. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  11. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  12. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  13. Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

  14. Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria POPESCU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

  15. An Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Generation IV Nuclear Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leahy, Timothy J.

    2010-01-01

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Risk and Safety Working Group (RSWG) was created to develop an effective approach for the safety of Generation IV advanced nuclear energy systems. Early work of the RSWG focused on defining a safety philosophy founded on lessons learned from current and prior generations of nuclear technologies, and on identifying technology characteristics that may help achieve Generation IV safety goals. More recent RSWG work has focused on the definition of an integrated safety assessment methodology for evaluating the safety of Generation IV systems. The methodology, tentatively called ISAM, is an integrated 'toolkit' consisting of analytical techniques that are available and matched to appropriate stages of Generation IV system concept development. The integrated methodology is intended to yield safety-related insights that help actively drive the evolving design throughout the technology development cycle, potentially resulting in enhanced safety, reduced costs, and shortened development time.

  16. Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Kent D.

    1994-01-01

    Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  18. Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

    OpenAIRE

    Geis, Stefan Rafael

    2006-01-01

    This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

  19. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  20. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  2. Supply chain integration, risk management and manufacturing flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaudhuri, Atanu; Boer, Harry; Taran, Yariv

    2018-01-01

    , respectively, and manufacturing flexibility. Design/methodology/approach – Using hierarchical regression, data are analyzed from a sample of 343 manufacturing plants in Asia collected in 2013-2014 as part of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS VI). Findings – Internal integration and supply......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal integration, external integration and supply chain risk management on manufacturing flexibility, and the moderating effect of supply chain risk management on the relationships between internal and external integration...... chain risk management have a direct effect on manufacturing flexibility. Supply chain risk management moderates the relationship between external integration and flexibility. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to generalize beyond the flexibility performance of discrete...

  3. Development of a methodology for conducting an integrated HRA/PRA --

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckas, W.J.; Barriere, M.T.; Brown, W.S. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Wreathall, J. (Wreathall (John) and Co., Dublin, OH (United States)); Cooper, S.E. (Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (United States))

    1993-01-01

    During Low Power and Shutdown (LP S) conditions in a nuclear power plant (i.e., when the reactor is subcritical or at less than 10--15% power), human interactions with the plant's systems will be more frequent and more direct. Control is typically not mediated by automation, and there are fewer protective systems available. Therefore, an assessment of LP S related risk should include a greater emphasis on human reliability than such an assessment made for power operation conditions. In order to properly account for the increase in human interaction and thus be able to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) applicable to operations during LP S, it is important that a comprehensive human reliability assessment (HRA) methodology be developed and integrated into the LP S PRA. The tasks comprising the comprehensive HRA methodology development are as follows: (1) identification of the human reliability related influences and associated human actions during LP S, (2) identification of potentially important LP S related human actions and appropriate HRA framework and quantification methods, and (3) incorporation and coordination of methodology development with other integrated PRA/HRA efforts. This paper describes the first task, i.e., the assessment of human reliability influences and any associated human actions during LP S conditions for a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  4. EVALUATION OF THE GRAI INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY AND THE IMAGIM SUPPORTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M.C. Reid

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the GRAI Integrated Methodology and identifies the need for computer tools to support enterprise modelling,design and integration. The IMAGIM tool is then evaluated in terms of its ability to support the GRAI Integrated Methodology. The GRAI Integrated Methodology is an Enterprise Integration methodology developed to support the design of CIM systems . The GRAI Integrated Methodology consists of the GRAI model and a structured approach. The latest addition to the methodology is the IMAGIM software tool developed by the GRAI research group for the specific purpose of supporting the methodology.

  5. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  6. Development of a methodology for conducting an integrated HRA/PRA --

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luckas, W.J.; Barriere, M.T.; Brown, W.S.; Wreathall, J.; Cooper, S.E.

    1993-01-01

    During Low Power and Shutdown (LP ampersand S) conditions in a nuclear power plant (i.e., when the reactor is subcritical or at less than 10--15% power), human interactions with the plant's systems will be more frequent and more direct. Control is typically not mediated by automation, and there are fewer protective systems available. Therefore, an assessment of LP ampersand S related risk should include a greater emphasis on human reliability than such an assessment made for power operation conditions. In order to properly account for the increase in human interaction and thus be able to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) applicable to operations during LP ampersand S, it is important that a comprehensive human reliability assessment (HRA) methodology be developed and integrated into the LP ampersand S PRA. The tasks comprising the comprehensive HRA methodology development are as follows: (1) identification of the human reliability related influences and associated human actions during LP ampersand S, (2) identification of potentially important LP ampersand S related human actions and appropriate HRA framework and quantification methods, and (3) incorporation and coordination of methodology development with other integrated PRA/HRA efforts. This paper describes the first task, i.e., the assessment of human reliability influences and any associated human actions during LP ampersand S conditions for a pressurized water reactor (PWR)

  7. A Quality-Driven Methodology for Information Systems Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyad Zikra

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Information systems integration is an essential instrument for organizations to attain advantage in today’s growing and fast changing business and technology landscapes. Integration solutions generate added value by combining the functionality and services of heterogeneous and diverse systems. Existing integration environments tend to rely heavily on technical, platform-dependent skills. Consequently, the solutions that they enable are not optimally aligned with the envisioned business goals of the organization. Furthermore, the gap between the goals and the solutions complicates the task of evaluating the quality of integration solutions. To address these challenges, we propose a quality-driven, model-driven methodology for designing and developing integration solutions. The methodology spans organizational and systems design details, providing a holistic view of the integration solution and its underlying business goals. A multi-view meta-model provides the basis for the integration design. Quality factors that affect various aspects of the integration solution guide and inform the progress of the methodology. An example business case is presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology.

  8. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document

  9. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  10. IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

  11. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  12. Design of an Integrated Methodology for Analytical Design of Complex Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Rashid

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A literature review and gap analysis indentifies key limitations of industry best practice when modelling of supply chains. To address these limitations the paper reports on the conception and development of an integrated modelling methodology designed to underpin the analytical design of complex supply chains. The methodology is based upon a systematic deployment of EM, CLD, and SM techniques; the integration of which is achieved via common modelling concepts and decomposition principles. Thereby the methodology facilitates: (i graphical representation and description of key “processing”, “resourcing” and “work flow” properties of supply chain configurations; (ii behavioural exploration of currently configured supply chains, to facilitate reasoning about uncertain demand impacts on supply, make, delivery, and return processes; (iii predictive quantification about relative performances of alternative complex supply chain configurations, including risk assessments. Guidelines for the application of each step of the methodology are described. Also described are recommended data collection methods and expected modelling outcomes for each step. The methodology is being extensively case tested to quantify potential benefits & costs relative to current best industry practice. The paper reflects on preliminary benefits gained during industry based case study modelling and identifies areas of potential improvement.

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  14. Methodology for dimensional variation analysis of ITER integrated systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuentes, F. Javier; Trouvé, Vincent; Cordier, Jean-Jacques; Reich, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Tokamak dimensional management methodology, based on 3D variation analysis, is presented. • Dimensional Variation Model implementation workflow is described. • Methodology phases are described in detail. The application of this methodology to the tolerance analysis of ITER Vacuum Vessel is presented. • Dimensional studies are a valuable tool for the assessment of Tokamak PCR (Project Change Requests), DR (Deviation Requests) and NCR (Non-Conformance Reports). - Abstract: The ITER machine consists of a large number of complex systems highly integrated, with critical functional requirements and reduced design clearances to minimize the impact in cost and performances. Tolerances and assembly accuracies in critical areas could have a serious impact in the final performances, compromising the machine assembly and plasma operation. The management of tolerances allocated to part manufacture and assembly processes, as well as the control of potential deviations and early mitigation of non-compliances with the technical requirements, is a critical activity on the project life cycle. A 3D tolerance simulation analysis of ITER Tokamak machine has been developed based on 3DCS dedicated software. This integrated dimensional variation model is representative of Tokamak manufacturing functional tolerances and assembly processes, predicting accurate values for the amount of variation on critical areas. This paper describes the detailed methodology to implement and update the Tokamak Dimensional Variation Model. The model is managed at system level. The methodology phases are illustrated by its application to the Vacuum Vessel (VV), considering the status of maturity of VV dimensional variation model. The following topics are described in this paper: • Model description and constraints. • Model implementation workflow. • Management of input and output data. • Statistical analysis and risk assessment. The management of the integration studies based on

  15. Methodology for dimensional variation analysis of ITER integrated systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuentes, F. Javier, E-mail: FranciscoJavier.Fuentes@iter.org [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon—CS 90046, 13067 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Trouvé, Vincent [Assystem Engineering & Operation Services, rue J-M Jacquard CS 60117, 84120 Pertuis (France); Cordier, Jean-Jacques; Reich, Jens [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon—CS 90046, 13067 St Paul-lez-Durance (France)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • Tokamak dimensional management methodology, based on 3D variation analysis, is presented. • Dimensional Variation Model implementation workflow is described. • Methodology phases are described in detail. The application of this methodology to the tolerance analysis of ITER Vacuum Vessel is presented. • Dimensional studies are a valuable tool for the assessment of Tokamak PCR (Project Change Requests), DR (Deviation Requests) and NCR (Non-Conformance Reports). - Abstract: The ITER machine consists of a large number of complex systems highly integrated, with critical functional requirements and reduced design clearances to minimize the impact in cost and performances. Tolerances and assembly accuracies in critical areas could have a serious impact in the final performances, compromising the machine assembly and plasma operation. The management of tolerances allocated to part manufacture and assembly processes, as well as the control of potential deviations and early mitigation of non-compliances with the technical requirements, is a critical activity on the project life cycle. A 3D tolerance simulation analysis of ITER Tokamak machine has been developed based on 3DCS dedicated software. This integrated dimensional variation model is representative of Tokamak manufacturing functional tolerances and assembly processes, predicting accurate values for the amount of variation on critical areas. This paper describes the detailed methodology to implement and update the Tokamak Dimensional Variation Model. The model is managed at system level. The methodology phases are illustrated by its application to the Vacuum Vessel (VV), considering the status of maturity of VV dimensional variation model. The following topics are described in this paper: • Model description and constraints. • Model implementation workflow. • Management of input and output data. • Statistical analysis and risk assessment. The management of the integration studies based on

  16. A Methodology to Integrate Security and Cost-effectiveness in ATM

    OpenAIRE

    Matarese, Francesca; Montefusco, Patrizia; Neves, José; Rocha, André

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is the definition of a new methodology for carrying out security risk assessment in the air traffic management (ATM) domain so as to enhance security awareness and integrate secure and cost-effective design objectives. This process is carried out by modelling the system, identifying the assets, threats and vulnerabilities, prioritizing the threats and proposing cost-effective countermeasures for the weaknesses found. ATM security is concerned with securing ATM a...

  17. Insights from implementation of a risk management methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahn, J.A.; Germann, R.P.; Jacobs, R.R.

    1992-01-01

    In 1988, GPU Nuclear (GPUN) Corporation embarked on a research effort to identify or develop an appropriate methodology for proactively managing risks. The objective of this effort was to increase its ability to identify potential risks and to aid resource allocation decision making for risk control. Such a methodology was presented at a risk management symposium sponsored by GPUN in September of 1989. A pilot project based on this methodology has been conducted at GPUN to test and validate the elements of the methodology and to compare the results of its application with current corporate methods for guiding risk decision making. The pilot project also led to a follow-up policy-capturing study to elicit information about the various risk decision-making models of GPUN decision makers. The combination of these endeavors provided an opportunity to gain numerous insights with respect to understanding the real value of a risk management process, obtaining acceptance of and commitment to risk management and improving operational aspects of the methodology

  18. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  19. A Methodology for Integrating Maintainability Using Software Metrics

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, John A.; Henry, Sallie M.

    1989-01-01

    Maintainability must be integrated into software early in the development process. But for practical use, the techniques used must be as unobtrusive to the existing software development process as possible. This paper defines a methodology for integrating maintainability into large-scale software and describes an experiment which implemented the methodology into a major commercial software development environment.

  20. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  1. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  2. A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

  3. ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Crespo Martínez

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

  4. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

    2013-01-01

    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  5. METHODOLOGY FRAMEWORK FOR PROCESS INTEGRATION AND SERVICE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darko Galinec

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available History of information systems development was driven by business system's functions automation and mergers and acquisitions - business subjects integration into a whole. Modern business requires business processes integration through their dynamics and thus enterprise application integration (EAI as well. In this connection it is necessary to find ways and means of application integration and interaction in a consistent and reliable way. The real-time enterprise (RTE monitors, captures and analyzes root causes and overt events that are critical to its success the instant those events occur [6]. EAI is determined by business needs and business requirements. It must be based on business process repository and models, business integration methodology (BIM and information flow as well. Decisions concerning technology must be in function of successful application integration. In this paper EAI methodological framework and technological concepts for its achievements are introduced.

  6. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

    2015-01-01

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  7. Application of the integrated safety assessment methodology to the protection of electric systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hortal, Javier; Izquierdo, Jose M.

    1996-01-01

    The generalization of classical techniques for risk assessment incorporating dynamic effects is the main objective of the Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology, as practical implementation of Protection Theory. Transient stability, contingency analysis and protection setpoint verification in electric power systems are particularly appropriate domains of application, since the coupling of reliability and dynamic analysis in the protection assessment process is being increasingly demanded. Suitable techniques for dynamic simulation of sequences of switching events in power systems are derived from the use of quasi-linear equation solution algorithms. The application of the methodology, step by step, is illustrated in a simple but representative example

  8. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  9. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  10. Project INTEGRATE - a common methodological approach to understand integrated health care in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucinda Cash-Gibson

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of case studies in health services research has proven to be an excellent methodology for gaining in-depth understanding of the organisation and delivery of health care. This is particularly relevant when looking at the complexity of integrated healthcare programmes, where multifaceted interactions occur at the different levels of care and often without a clear link between the interventions (new and/or existing and their impact on outcomes (in terms of patients health, both patient and professional satisfaction and cost-effectiveness. Still, integrated care is seen as a core strategy in the sustainability of health and care provision in most societies in Europe and beyond. More specifically, at present, there is neither clear evidence on transferable factors of integrated care success nor a method for determining how to establish these specific success factors. The drawback of case methodology in this case, however, is that the in-depth results or lessons generated are usually highly context-specific and thus brings the challenge of transferability of findings to other settings, as different health care systems and different indications are often not comparable. Project INTEGRATE, a European Commission-funded project, has been designed to overcome these problems; it looks into four chronic conditions in different European settings, under a common methodology framework (taking a mixed-methods approach to try to overcome the issue of context specificity and limited transferability. The common methodological framework described in this paper seeks to bring together the different case study findings in a way that key lessons may be derived and transferred between countries, contexts and patient-groups, where integrated care is delivered in order to provide insight into generalisability and build on existing evidence in this field.Methodology: To compare the different integrated care experiences, a mixed-methods approach has

  11. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  12. From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  13. From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  14. Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

  15. Integration of infrared thermography into various maintenance methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, William T.

    1993-04-01

    Maintenance methodologies are in developmental stages throughout the world as global competitiveness drives all industries to improve operational efficiencies. Rapid progress in technical advancements has added an additional strain on maintenance organizations to progressively change. Accompanying needs for advanced training and documentation is the demand for utilization of various analytical instruments and quantitative methods. Infrared thermography is one of the primary elements of engineered approaches to maintenance. Current maintenance methodologies can be divided into six categories; Routine ('Breakdown'), Preventive, Predictive, Proactive, Reliability-Based, and Total Productive (TPM) maintenance. Each of these methodologies have distinctive approaches to achieving improved operational efficiencies. Popular though is that infrared thermography is a Predictive maintenance tool. While this is true, it is also true that it can be effectively integrated into each of the maintenance methodologies for achieving desired results. The six maintenance strategies will be defined. Infrared applications integrated into each will be composed in tabular form.

  16. Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

    2012-03-01

    Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT CUSTOMIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Colomo Palacios

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The importance and presence of technological solutions in organizations supporting CRM are a vital business fact from the late nineties. Presently, the manufacturers figure in the market has dramatically decreased because of continuous takeovers and merges, but it has on the other hand gained momentum because of the sudden open-source and on-demand solutions appearance. In this scope, a unified methodology centered on CRM solutions is of paramount importance since it has traditionally been linked to either system integration or overall solution design. Based on the two de-facto complementary standards for the implementation and development of Information Systems, namely the ESA and Dyché CRM systems implementation methodology, in this paper, we provide a CRM business solutions customization methodology which pertains independently to the integration and tool maker perspective.

  18. The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

  19. Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

    1980-01-01

    A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

  20. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  1. Environmental impact assessment for energy pathways: an integrated methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommereux-Blanc, Isabelle

    2010-01-01

    This document presents the synthesis of my research work contributing to the development of an integrated methodology of environmental impact assessment for energy pathways. In the context of world globalization, environmental impact assessments issues are highly linked with the following questioning: Which environmental impacts? for which demand? at which location? at which temporal scale? My work is built upon the definition of a conceptual framework able to handle these issues and upon its progressive implementation. The integration of the spatial and temporal issues within the methodology are key elements. Fundamental cornerstones of this framework are presented along the DPSIR concept (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses). They cover a comprehensive analysis of the limits and the relevance of life cycle analysis and the development of a geo-spatialized environmental performance approach for an electrical production pathway. Perspectives linked with the development of this integrated methodology are detailed for energy pathways. (author)

  2. Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vygovska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

  3. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  4. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  5. Methodology for development of risk indicators for offshore platforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeien, K.; Sklet, S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a generic methodology for development of risk indicators for petroleum installations and a specific set of risk indicators established for one offshore platform. The risk indicators should be used to control the risk during operation of platforms. The methodology is purely risk-based and the basis for development of risk indicators is the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). In order to identify high risk contributing factors, platform personnel are asked to assess whether and how much the risk influencing factors will change. A brief comparison of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for nuclear power plants and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for petroleum platforms is also given. (au)

  6. Reliability evaluation methodologies for ensuring container integrity of stored transuranic (TRU) waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, K.L.

    1995-06-01

    This report provides methodologies for providing defensible estimates of expected transuranic waste storage container lifetimes at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex. These methodologies can be used to estimate transuranic waste container reliability (for integrity and degradation) and as an analytical tool to optimize waste container integrity. Container packaging and storage configurations, which directly affect waste container integrity, are also addressed. The methodologies presented provide a means for demonstrating Resource Conservation and Recovery Act waste storage requirements

  7. Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

    2016-01-01

    The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

  8. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  9. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  10. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  11. Information technology security system engineering methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childs, D.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is described for system engineering security into large information technology systems under development. The methodology is an integration of a risk management process and a generic system development life cycle process. The methodology is to be used by Security System Engineers to effectively engineer and integrate information technology security into a target system as it progresses through the development life cycle. The methodology can also be used to re-engineer security into a legacy system.

  12. Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

    2015-12-01

    This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

  13. Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

    1999-01-01

    The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

  14. Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

  15. A 3D Hybrid Integration Methodology for Terabit Transceivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yunfeng; Johansen, Tom Keinicke; Zhurbenko, Vitaliy

    2015-01-01

    integration are described. An equivalent circuit model of the via-throughs connecting the RF circuitry to the modulator is proposed and its lumped element parameters are extracted. Wire bonding transitions between the driving and RF circuitry were designed and simulated. An optimized 3D interposer design......This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) hybrid integration methodology for terabit transceivers. The simulation methodology for multi-conductor structures are explained. The effect of ground vias on the RF circuitry and the preferred interposer substrate material for large bandwidth 3D hybrid...

  16. Usefulness of alternative integrative assessment methodologies in public decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, L. E.; Litchfield, J. W.; Currie, J. W.; McDonald, C. L.; Adams, R. C.

    1978-07-01

    Many diverse social, economic, and environmental effects are associated with each of the available energy development alternatives. The assessment of the costs, risks, and benefits of these energy development options is an important function of the U. S. Department of Energy. This task is more difficult when no single alternative is better than the others in all respects. This paper compares benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aids for these more difficult and more common assessment cases. PNL has developed expertise in making these assessments through its involvement since the Calvert Cliffs decision in both the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements and the development of methods to make these statements more thorough and responsive to the spirit of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Since 1973 PNL has had continuing efforts to quantify, value, and compare all of the major factors which influence the overall impacts of energy development options. An important part of this work has been the measurement and incorporation of the relative values which community groups place on these conflicting factors. Such difficult assessment problems could be approached in many ways including the use of benefit-cost or multi-attribute utility analysis. This paper addresses the following questions: (1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits. (2) If an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for selecting a method. (3) Is it possible to use one of the available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment. The answers to these questions presented in this report are applicable to most public decision problems.

  17. Methodology for analyzing risk at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Hosik; Lee, Nayoung; Ham, Taekyu; Seo, Janghoon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new methodology for evaluating the risk at nuclear facilities was developed. • Five measures reflecting all factors that should be concerned to assess risk were developed. • The attributes on NMAC and nuclear security culture are included as attributes for analyzing. • The newly developed methodology can be used to evaluate risk of both existing facility and future nuclear system. - Abstract: A methodology for evaluating risks at nuclear facilities is developed in this work. A series of measures is drawn from the analysis of factors that determine risks. Five measures are created to evaluate risks at nuclear facilities. These include the legal and institutional framework, material control, physical protection system effectiveness, human resources, and consequences. Evaluation attributes are developed for each measure and specific values are given in order to calculate the risk value quantitatively. Questionnaires are drawn up on whether or not a state has properly established a legal and regulatory framework (based on international standards). These questionnaires can be a useful measure for comparing the status of the physical protection regime between two countries. Analyzing an insider threat is not an easy task and no methodology has been developed for this purpose. In this study, attributes that could quantitatively evaluate an insider threat, in the case of an unauthorized removal of nuclear materials, are developed by adopting the Nuclear Material Accounting & Control (NMAC) system. The effectiveness of a physical protection system, P(E), could be analyzed by calculating the probability of interruption, P(I), and the probability of neutralization, P(N). In this study, the Tool for Evaluating Security System (TESS) code developed by KINAC is used to calculate P(I) and P(N). Consequence is an important measure used to analyze risks at nuclear facilities. This measure comprises radiological, economic, and social damage. Social and

  18. Overtopping hazards to port activities: Application of a new methodology to risk management (POrt Risk MAnagement Tool)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alises, Ana; Molina, Rafael; Gómez, Rebeca; Pery, Pascual; Castillo, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    In the past 20 years, the need of ports to serve a fleet whose dimensions are continuously increasing due to economies of scale, has derived on a port infrastructures growth with a trend to look for greater drafts at deeper waters and therefore the protection structures built in the last years have been increasingly exposed to severer maritime climate action. Consequently, overtopping phenomenon has been identified as a potential risk factor able to cause structural damages and operative failure modes to vulnerable economic activities located at these port facilities. Port activities must be developed ensuring operative and safety conditions what imply reducing uncertainties of overtopping phenomena by using prediction methods which may allow overtopping risk management. This paper provides a risk assessment methodology which is integrated into an overtopping risk management framework to cope with safety problems in port exploitation. Overtopping risk value is measured by combining probability of occurrence of an undesirable event together with its consequences, estimated in terms of costs or delays and given in base of the vulnerability of the affected port system. The development of this methodology is described and finally applied to a real case study what seems to reinforce the validity of the proposed method to overtopping risk assessment. - Highlights: • Infrastructure risk assessment involves both probabilistic and economic techniques. • Risk equation is posed by the combination of probability, vulnerability and cost. • Port infrastructures' vulnerability level depends on climate agents' action. • Economic value of natural hazards consequences is linked with vulnerability level. • Project planning process should be done taking into account the project's risk distribution

  19. A methodology for flood risk appraisal in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriščiukaitienė Irena

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for flood risk mapping as envisaged by the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks [Directive 2007/60/EC]. Specifically, we aimed at identifying the types of flood damage that can be estimated given data availability in Lithuania. Furthermore, we present the main sources of data and the associated cost functions. The methodology covers the following main types of flood threats: risk to inhabitants, risk to economic activity, and social risk. A multi-criteria framework for aggregation of different risks is proposed to provide a comprehensive appraisal of flood risk. On the basis of the proposed research, flood risk maps have been prepared for Lithuania. These maps are available for each type of flood risk (i.e. inhabitants, economic losses, social risk as well as for aggregate risk. The results indicate that flood risk management is crucial for western and central Lithuania, whereas other parts of the country are not likely to suffer from significant losses due to flooding.

  20. Intersystem LOCA risk assessment: methodology and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.; Auflick, L.J.; Blackman, H.S.; Gertman, D.I.; Hanley, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors, hardware and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an intersystem loss-of-coolant accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish the goals of this program, a mehtodology has been developed for estimating ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. The steps in this methodology are briefly described, along with the results obtained from an application of the methodology at three pressurized water reactors. Also included are the results of a screening study of boiling water reactors. ((orig.))

  1. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  2. Methodology for allocating reliability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

    1986-05-01

    This report describes a methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants. The work investigates the technical feasibility of allocating reliability and risk, which are expressed in a set of global safety criteria and which may not necessarily be rigid, to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner. The report also provides general discussions on the problem of reliability and risk allocation. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm. The work mainly addresses the first two steps of a typical decision analysis, i.e., (1) identifying alternatives, and (2) generating information on outcomes of the alternatives, by performing a multiobjective optimization on a PRA model and reliability cost functions. The multiobjective optimization serves as the guiding principle to reliability and risk allocation. The concept of ''noninferiority'' is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The final step of decision analysis, i.e., assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided, and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation, preference assessment, and uncertainty are discussed. 29 refs., 44 figs., 39 tabs

  3. Networks as integrated in research methodologies in PER

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    of using networks to create insightful maps of learning discussions. To conclude, I argue that conceptual blending is a powerful framework for constructing "mixed methods" methodologies that may integrate diverse theories and other methodologies with network methodologies.......In recent years a number of researchers within the PER community have started using network analysis as a new methodology to extend our understanding of teaching and learning physics by viewing these as complex systems. In this paper, I give examples of social, cognitive, and action mapping...... networks and how they can be analyzed. In so doing I show how a network can be methodologically described as a set of relations between a set of entities, and how a network can be characterized and analyzed as a mathematical object. Then, as an illustrative example, I discuss a relatively new example...

  4. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  5. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  6. An Integrated Methodology for Emulsified Formulated Product Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mattei, Michele

    are mixed together to determine the desired emulsified product. They are still mainly designed and analysed through trial - and - error based exper- imental techniques, therefore a systematic approach , integrating model-based as well a s experiment - based techniques, for design of these products could......The consumer oriented chemical based products are used every day by millions of people. They are structured products constituted of numerous chemicals, and many of them, especially household and personal care products, are emulsions where active ingredients, solvents, additives and surfactants...... significantly reduce both time and cost connected to product development by doing only the necessary experi- ments , and ensuring chances for innovation . The main contribution of this project i s the development of an integrated methodology for the design of emulsified formulated products. The methodology...

  7. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  8. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  9. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2013-01-01

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

  10. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

  11. Tornado missile simulation and design methodology. Volume 1: simulation methodology, design applications, and TORMIS computer code. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

    1981-08-01

    A probabilistic methodology has been developed to predict the probabilities of tornado-propelled missiles impacting and damaging nuclear power plant structures. Mathematical models of each event in the tornado missile hazard have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated, time-history simulation methodology. The models are data based where feasible. The data include documented records of tornado occurrence, field observations of missile transport, results of wind tunnel experiments, and missile impact tests. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the risk probabilities. The methodology has been encoded in the TORMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific tornado missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and risk has been assessed for a hypothetical nuclear power plant design case study

  12. Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. METHODS: Eight case studies based on the benefit......-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. RESULTS: A general pathway through the case studies...

  13. Teaching writing of scientific abstracts in English: CLIL methodology in an integrated English and Medicine course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippa Mungra

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In the I Faculty at the University of Rome “La Sapienza” Medical School, one of the several methodology courses aims at developing approaches by physicians to patient queries. One such course comprises several disciplines: Pathology, Immunology, Medical Statistics, Internal Medicine and English, with the specific aim of furnishing students, all Italian speakers, with skills for searching and evaluating the medical literature for answers to patient queries regarding risks and effectiveness of therapy. This paper describes the integration of English into a Methodology Course and delineates how the language component uses a Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL approach to train students to write the highly specific genre of journal abstracts for medical experimental research articles. A corpus of student writing is presented and discussed with the aim of furnishing one didactic model for language teaching within the Italian Medical Curriculum.

  14. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  15. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  16. Integrated cost estimation methodology to support high-performance building design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaidya, Prasad; Greden, Lara; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group, Minnetonka (United States); Cole, Ray [Axiom Engineers, Monterey (United States)

    2007-07-01

    Design teams evaluating the performance of energy conservation measures (ECMs) calculate energy savings rigorously with established modelling protocols, accounting for the interaction between various measures. However, incremental cost calculations do not have a similar rigor. Often there is no recognition of cost reductions with integrated design, nor is there assessment of cost interactions amongst measures. This lack of rigor feeds the notion that high-performance buildings cost more, creating a barrier for design teams pursuing aggressive high-performance outcomes. This study proposes an alternative integrated methodology to arrive at a lower perceived incremental cost for improved energy performance. The methodology is based on the use of energy simulations as means towards integrated design and cost estimation. Various points along the spectrum of integration are identified and characterized by the amount of design effort invested, the scheduling of effort, and relative energy performance of the resultant design. It includes a study of the interactions between building system parameters as they relate to capital costs. Several cost interactions amongst energy measures are found to be significant.The value of this approach is demonstrated with alternatives in a case study that shows the differences between perceived costs for energy measures along various points on the integration spectrum. These alternatives show design tradeoffs and identify how decisions would have been different with a standard costing approach. Areas of further research to make the methodology more robust are identified. Policy measures to encourage the integrated approach and reduce the barriers towards improved energy performance are discussed.

  17. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  18. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  19. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garcin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

    The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

    This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

  20. Qualitative case study methodology in nursing research: an integrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Susan; Jack, Susan

    2009-06-01

    This paper is a report of an integrative review conducted to critically analyse the contemporary use of qualitative case study methodology in nursing research. Increasing complexity in health care and increasing use of case study in nursing research support the need for current examination of this methodology. In 2007, a search for case study research (published 2005-2007) indexed in the CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Sociological Abstracts and SCOPUS databases was conducted. A sample of 42 case study research papers met the inclusion criteria. Whittemore and Knafl's integrative review method guided the analysis. Confusion exists about the name, nature and use of case study. This methodology, including terminology and concepts, is often invisible in qualitative study titles and abstracts. Case study is an exclusive methodology and an adjunct to exploring particular aspects of phenomena under investigation in larger or mixed-methods studies. A high quality of case study exists in nursing research. Judicious selection and diligent application of literature review methods promote the development of nursing science. Case study is becoming entrenched in the nursing research lexicon as a well-accepted methodology for studying phenomena in health and social care, and its growing use warrants continued appraisal to promote nursing knowledge development. Attention to all case study elements, process and publication is important in promoting authenticity, methodological quality and visibility.

  1. Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

  2. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  3. A Simplified Methodology For Risk Assessment of The Oolitic Limestone Aquifer, West of Alexandria Coastal Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadek, M.A.; Hussein, R.A.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater risk analysis helps to assess the effects of contaminants reach to specific position in groundwater system after introduction at some location above the uppermost aquifer. This provides a basis for initiating protective and mitigation measures for important groundwater resources. An attempt has been made in the present study to assess the risk of diffuse groundwater pollution at the north western coast of Alexandria against landfill waste disposal as well as agricultural pollutants leachates which are the main land use in the studied area. A simplified weighing/ rating approach have been functioned for this purpose, Slovene methodology, which is relevant for fissured carbonate aquifers that characterize the studied area. This method is based on an origin-pathway-target model, which applies for both resource and source protection. Conservative values for the intrinsic geological, hydrogeological, geo morphological and climatological parameters have been reviewed and determined for assessment of the source and resource vulnerability, hazards and risk (lithology, texture and structure of soil zone, lithology and thickness of the unsaturated zone and aquifer conditions, morphological features, slope and vegetation cover, average annual stormy days, travel time and karst network , the fertilizers and pesticide used for agriculture, the volume of unlined waste disposal site). The methodology applied in the present study emphasizes how the physical properties of the hydrological system can be integrated in an index that reflects the level of risk of a diffuse pollution to groundwater. This aligns with the prospective of site safety evaluation around risky installations such as a nuclear power plants or waste disposal facilities where assurance should be done that the risk to the public and environment is acceptably low. According to the functioned methodology, the fissured limestone under study is low vulnerable and highly protectable against surface diffuse

  4. Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

  5. Design methodology for integrated downstream separation systems in an ethanol biorefinery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh Rohani, Navid

    internal integration scenario, the conventional pinch method is used for energy analysis. The results reveal the importance of energy integration in reducing energy consumption. They also show that in an ethanol biorefinery, by adopting energy integration in the conventional distillation separation, we can achieve greater energy saving compared to other alternative techniques. This in turn suggests that new alternative technologies which imply big risks for the company might not be an option for reducing the energy consumption as long as an internal and external integration is incorporated in the business model of an ethanol biorefinery. It is also noteworthy that the methodology developed in this work can be extended as a future work to include a whole biorefinery system. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

  6. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  7. Innovation and Integrity in Intervention Research: Conceptual Issues, Methodology, and Knowledge Translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malti, Tina; Beelmann, Andreas; Noam, Gil G; Sommer, Simon

    2018-04-01

    In this article, we introduce the special issue entitled Innovation and Integrity in Intervention Science. Its focus is on essential problems and prospects for intervention research examining two related topics, i.e., methodological issues and research integrity, and challenges in the transfer of research knowledge into practice and policy. The main aims are to identify how to advance methodology in order to improve research quality, examine scientific integrity in the field of intervention science, and discuss future steps to enhance the transfer of knowledge about evidence-based intervention principles into sustained practice, routine activities, and policy decisions. Themes of the special issue are twofold. The first includes questions about research methodology in intervention science, both in terms of research design and methods, as well as data analyses and the reporting of findings. Second, the issue tackles questions surrounding the types of knowledge translation frameworks that might be beneficial to mobilize the transfer of research-based knowledge into practice and public policies. The issue argues that innovations in methodology and thoughtful approaches to knowledge translation can enable transparency, quality, and sustainability of intervention research.

  8. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test

  9. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  10. Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

  11. Methodological Problems on the Way to Integrative Human Neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotchoubey, Boris; Tretter, Felix; Braun, Hans A; Buchheim, Thomas; Draguhn, Andreas; Fuchs, Thomas; Hasler, Felix; Hastedt, Heiner; Hinterberger, Thilo; Northoff, Georg; Rentschler, Ingo; Schleim, Stephan; Sellmaier, Stephan; Tebartz Van Elst, Ludger; Tschacher, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Neuroscience is a multidisciplinary effort to understand the structures and functions of the brain and brain-mind relations. This effort results in an increasing amount of data, generated by sophisticated technologies. However, these data enhance our descriptive knowledge , rather than improve our understanding of brain functions. This is caused by methodological gaps both within and between subdisciplines constituting neuroscience, and the atomistic approach that limits the study of macro- and mesoscopic issues. Whole-brain measurement technologies do not resolve these issues, but rather aggravate them by the complexity problem. The present article is devoted to methodological and epistemic problems that obstruct the development of human neuroscience. We neither discuss ontological questions (e.g., the nature of the mind) nor review data, except when it is necessary to demonstrate a methodological issue. As regards intradisciplinary methodological problems, we concentrate on those within neurobiology (e.g., the gap between electrical and chemical approaches to neurophysiological processes) and psychology (missing theoretical concepts). As regards interdisciplinary problems, we suggest that core disciplines of neuroscience can be integrated using systemic concepts that also entail human-environment relations. We emphasize the necessity of a meta-discussion that should entail a closer cooperation with philosophy as a discipline of systematic reflection. The atomistic reduction should be complemented by the explicit consideration of the embodiedness of the brain and the embeddedness of humans. The discussion is aimed at the development of an explicit methodology of integrative human neuroscience , which will not only link different fields and levels, but also help in understanding clinical phenomena.

  12. Methodological Problems on the Way to Integrative Human Neuroscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotchoubey, Boris; Tretter, Felix; Braun, Hans A.; Buchheim, Thomas; Draguhn, Andreas; Fuchs, Thomas; Hasler, Felix; Hastedt, Heiner; Hinterberger, Thilo; Northoff, Georg; Rentschler, Ingo; Schleim, Stephan; Sellmaier, Stephan; Tebartz Van Elst, Ludger; Tschacher, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Neuroscience is a multidisciplinary effort to understand the structures and functions of the brain and brain-mind relations. This effort results in an increasing amount of data, generated by sophisticated technologies. However, these data enhance our descriptive knowledge, rather than improve our understanding of brain functions. This is caused by methodological gaps both within and between subdisciplines constituting neuroscience, and the atomistic approach that limits the study of macro- and mesoscopic issues. Whole-brain measurement technologies do not resolve these issues, but rather aggravate them by the complexity problem. The present article is devoted to methodological and epistemic problems that obstruct the development of human neuroscience. We neither discuss ontological questions (e.g., the nature of the mind) nor review data, except when it is necessary to demonstrate a methodological issue. As regards intradisciplinary methodological problems, we concentrate on those within neurobiology (e.g., the gap between electrical and chemical approaches to neurophysiological processes) and psychology (missing theoretical concepts). As regards interdisciplinary problems, we suggest that core disciplines of neuroscience can be integrated using systemic concepts that also entail human-environment relations. We emphasize the necessity of a meta-discussion that should entail a closer cooperation with philosophy as a discipline of systematic reflection. The atomistic reduction should be complemented by the explicit consideration of the embodiedness of the brain and the embeddedness of humans. The discussion is aimed at the development of an explicit methodology of integrative human neuroscience, which will not only link different fields and levels, but also help in understanding clinical phenomena. PMID:27965548

  13. Integrated structure/control design - Present methodology and future opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisshaar, T. A.; Newsom, J. R.; Zeiler, T. A.; Gilbert, M. G.

    1986-01-01

    Attention is given to current methodology applied to the integration of the optimal design process for structures and controls. Multilevel linear decomposition techniques proved to be most effective in organizing the computational efforts necessary for ISCD (integrated structures and control design) tasks. With the development of large orbiting space structures and actively controlled, high performance aircraft, there will be more situations in which this concept can be applied.

  14. GO-FLOW methodology. Basic concept and integrated analysis framework for its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi

    2010-01-01

    GO-FLOW methodology is a success oriented system analysis technique, and is capable of evaluating a large system with complex operational sequences. Recently an integrated analysis framework of the GO-FLOW has been developed for the safety evaluation of elevator systems by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japanese Government. This paper describes (a) an Overview of the GO-FLOW methodology, (b) Procedure of treating a phased mission problem, (c) Common cause failure analysis, (d) Uncertainty analysis, and (e) Integrated analysis framework. The GO-FLOW methodology is a valuable and useful tool for system reliability analysis and has a wide range of applications. (author)

  15. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1984-10-01

    A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  16. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  17. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  18. Proposal of Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Embedded System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Wei; Kageyama, Makoto; Kanemoto, Shigeru

    2011-01-01

    To do risk analysis and risk evaluation for complicated safety critical embedded systems, there are three things should be paid a good attention: 1) an efficient and integrated model expression of embedded systems: 2) systematic risk analysis based on integrated system model: 3) quantitative risk evaluation for software and hardware integrated system. In this paper, taken electric water boiler as a target system, a proposal of risk analysis and risk evaluation for the embedded system is presented to meet these three purposes. In risk analysis, MFM is used and FT is generated automatically from MFM following some rules: And in risk evaluation, GO-FLOW is used to evaluate the reliability of sensors. And furthermore, FIT is applied to evaluate the safety software logic based on the diversity design concept. Although the electric water boiler is a simple example, it includes the key components of the embedded system like sensors, actuators, and software component. So, the process of modeling, analysis, and evaluation could be applied to other kinds of complicated embedded systems

  19. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  20. A Comparison of Various Software Development Methodologies: Feasibility and Methods of Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Abou El-Seoud

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available System development methodologies which have being used in the academic and commercial environments during last two decades have advantages and disadvantages. Researchers had tried to identify objectives, scope …etc. of the methodologies by following different approaches. Each approach has its Limitation, specific interest, coverage …etc. In this paper, we tried to perform a comparative study of those methodologies which are popular and commonly used in banking and commercial environment. We tried in our study to determine objectives, scope, tools and other features of the methodologies. We also, tried to determine how and to what extent the methodologies incorporate the facilities such as project management, cost benefit analysis, documentation …etc. One of the most important aspects of our study was how to integrate the methodologies and develop a global methodology which covers the complete span of the software development life cycle? A prototype system which integrates the selected methodologies has been developed. The developed system helps analysts and designers how to choose suitable tools or to obtain guidelines on what to do in a particular situation. The prototype system has been tested during the development of a software for an ATM “Auto Teller Machine” by selecting and applying SASD methodology during software development. This resulted in the development of high quality and well documented software system.

  1. U.S. Department of energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments

  2. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  3. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-09-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  4. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Marques-Perez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  5. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  6. On fire risk/methodology for the next generation of reactors and nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, K.C.; Alesso, H.P.; Altenbach, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Methodologies for including fire in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been evolving during the last ten years. Many of these studies show that fire risk constitutes a significant percentage of external events, as well as the total core damage frequency. This paper summarizes the methodologies used in the fire risk analysis of the next generation of reactors and existing DOE nuclear facilities. Methodologies used in other industries, as well as existing nuclear power plants, are also discussed. Results of fire risk studies for various nuclear plants and facilities are shown and compared

  7. A Methodology for Conducting Integrative Mixed Methods Research and Data Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Felipe González; Kellison, Joshua G.; Boyd, Stephen J.; Kopak, Albert

    2011-01-01

    Mixed methods research has gained visibility within the last few years, although limitations persist regarding the scientific caliber of certain mixed methods research designs and methods. The need exists for rigorous mixed methods designs that integrate various data analytic procedures for a seamless transfer of evidence across qualitative and quantitative modalities. Such designs can offer the strength of confirmatory results drawn from quantitative multivariate analyses, along with “deep structure” explanatory descriptions as drawn from qualitative analyses. This article presents evidence generated from over a decade of pilot research in developing an integrative mixed methods methodology. It presents a conceptual framework and methodological and data analytic procedures for conducting mixed methods research studies, and it also presents illustrative examples from the authors' ongoing integrative mixed methods research studies. PMID:22167325

  8. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  9. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  10. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

  11. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  12. Advancement of the methodology for automated integration of external hazards into level 1 PSA modeling. Technical report; Weiterentwicklung der Methodik zur automatisierten Integration uebergreifender Einwirkungen in PSA-Modelle der Stufe 1. Technischer Fachbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berner, Nadine; Herb, Joachim

    2017-03-15

    In the course of the research and development project RS1539 funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economics and Energy (BMWi) the methodology for the automated integration of hazards in Level 1 PSA models has been enhanced. Thereby, the analysis tool pyRiskRobot provides the methodological framework for mapping a generic spectrum of internal and external hazards onto complex PSA plant models. The reimplementation of the software tool via the programming language python extends the applicability and facilitates the handling of pyRiskRobot in comparison to the previous Ruby-based version RiskRobot. Moreover, the development of functions to perform the topological modelling of fault trees and the probabilistic specification of modified fault tree elements have been continued. Due to the reimplementation and further developments, the tool enables to systematically generate fault trees of varying complexity, to flexibly integrate fault trees in existing PSA models and to automatically duplicate interconnected topologies. Thus, pyRiskRobot allows the efficient and traceable realization of hazard specific, usually laborious modifications of PSA models. In addition, pyRiskRobot has been extended to serve as a functional interface between the data compilations comprising the potential influences of hazards on PSA relevant components and the data base of a PSA plant model. Based on this conceptual design, additional analyses of the data can be carried out prior to the integration within the PSA model topology. The reimplemented functionalities of pyRiskRobot have been validated with respect to reference applications, such as the modelling of an internal fire scenario, against the previous version RiskRobot. The existing method collection for the automated modification of fault tree topologies has been extended based on the requirements for further applications, among others the modelling of an external flooding scenario. The deduced hazard specific modelling approaches

  13. Risk management methodology applied at thermal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppolino, R.

    2007-01-01

    Nowadays, the responsibility of the environmental risks, connected the productive processes and to the products of an enterprise, represent one of the main aspects which an adequate management approach has to foresee. In this paper it has been evaluated the guidelines followed by Edipower Thermoelectric Power plant of S. Filippo di Mela (ME). These guidelines were given in order to manage the chemical risk connected to the usage of various chemicals with which the workers get in touch when identifying the risks of the methodology introduced by the AZ/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management Standard

  14. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2009-02-15

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  15. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  16. Integrated Management System - Scope, Possibilities And Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čekanová, Katarína

    2015-06-01

    Organizations are becoming more aware of the importance of integrated management systems (IMS). Interest in this subject indicates that IMS are seen as "management systems of the future". Based on this, the aim of this articles characterizes the possibility of building IMS through the identification of common elements and specific requirements in accordance with the ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 professional references. Part of the article is the methodology of building IMS in the organization.

  17. Psychometric evaluation of the Moral Distress Risk Scale: A methodological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Rafaela; Zoboli, Elma Lcp; Vieira, Margarida M

    2017-01-01

    Moral distress is a kind of suffering that nurses may experience when they act in ways that are considered inconsistent with moral values, leading to a perceived compromise of moral integrity. Consequences are mostly negative and include physical and psychological symptoms, in addition to organizational implications. To psychometrically test the Moral Distress Risk Scale. A methodological study was realized. Data were submitted to exploratory factorial analysis through the SPSS statistical program. Participants and research context: In total, 268 nurses from hospitals and primary healthcare settings participated in this research during the period of March to June of 2016. Ethical considerations: This research has ethics committee approval. The Moral Distress Risk Scale is composed of 7 factors and 30 items; it shows evidence of acceptable reliability and validity with a Cronbach's α = 0.913, a total variance explained of 59%, a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin = 0.896, and a significant Bartlett <0.001. Concerns about moral distress should be beyond acute care settings, and a tool to help clarify critical points in other healthcare contexts may add value to moral distress speech. Psychometric results reveal that the Moral Distress Risk Scale can be applied in different healthcare contexts.

  18. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  19. Methodology and integrated studies for the strategic regional uranium prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade Tolentino, J. de.

    1984-01-01

    An integrated methodology alternative to the traditional one used for uranium prospecting is presented. For this purpose a detailed revision of some methods for finding uranium was made. Then a geological unit located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, was chosen due to its geographical proximity to the Lagoa Real deposit in the Brazilian Bahia State. The methodology applied to this unit gave a preliminary indications of areas to be prospected in detail. 36 refs, 44 figs, 20 tabs

  20. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  1. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  2. RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

    2012-01-01

    Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

  3. Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    WSTAT). In the early stages of the V&V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually...4932 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT ...WSTA has opened trade space exploration by allowing the tool to evaluate trillions of potential system configurations to then return a handful of

  4. Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

  5. Contracting Selection for the Development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    ...-Effectiveness Risk Tool and contractor selection for the development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology. The audit objective was to determine whether the Government appropriately used the Ordnance and Explosives Cost-Effectiveness Risk Tool...

  6. Integral Design methodology for Industrial Collaboration Design of Sustainable Industrial Flexible Demountable buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiler, W.; Quanjel, E.M.C.J.; Bauer, M.; Lima, C.

    2007-01-01

    Starting in 1998 from developing and designing their own office Kropman, a major Dutch Building Services contractor, developed a new methodology for structuring and documenting integral design processes. Integral design is meant to integrate the different disciplines involved in the building design

  7. Integrating risks at contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.; Habegger, L.; Nieves, L.; Schreiber, Z.; Travis, C.

    2000-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for a number of large sites across the country that were radioactively and chemically contaminated by past nuclear research, development, and production activities. Multiple risk assessments are being conducted for these sites to evaluate current conditions and determine what measures are needed to protect human health and the environment from today through the long term. Integrating the risks associated with multiple contaminants in different environmental media across extensive areas, over time periods that extend beyond 1,000 years, and for a number of different impact categories--from human health and ecological to social and economic--represents a considerable challenge. A central element of these integrated analyses is the ability to reflect key interrelationships among environmental resources and human communities that may be adversely affected by the actions or inactions being considered for a given site. Complicating the already difficult task of integrating many kinds of risk is the importance of reflecting the diverse values and preferences brought to bear by the multiple parties interested in the risk analysis process and outcome. An initial conceptual framework has been developed to provide an organized structure to this risk integration, with the aim of supporting effective environmental management decisions. This paper highlights key issues associated with comprehensive risk integration and offers suggestions developed from preliminary work at a complex DOE site

  8. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marzo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

  9. Application of risk based inspection methodology of API 581 BRD to oil pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezzi Filho, M. [Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Freire, J.L.F.; Maragone, F.. [Pontifica Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    In response to public concerns regarding the safe operation of pipelines, operators are relying on risk management to balance the demands of pipeline integrity and service competitiveness. This paper presented a procedure for calculating the probability of failure according to the API 581 BRD RB I methodology that uses data collected from 3 existing oil pipelines subject to internal corrosion. The risk exposure that the pipeline may be subjected to during its remaining operating life was evaluated. Risk is a function of the probability of failure and the consequences of that failure. Therefore, if the consequences of the failure are assumed to remain unchanged for a given equipment under specific operational conditions, then risk reduction will only be achieved by decreasing the probability of failure and through management of the inspection process. It was shown that if the confidence on the damage rate and on the inspection effectiveness is known, then it is possible to design an alternative to an existing inspection plan. This calls for pig inspections at 5 year intervals to ensure that the probability of failures for pipelines will be under a certain level of tolerable risk. 9 refs., 4 tabs., 3 figs.

  10. Development of risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, S. K.; Park, S. J.; Park, B. R.; Kim, M. R.; Choi, C. J.

    2001-01-01

    It has been assessed that the capital cost for future nuclear power plants needs to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors such as KNGR and System 80+. Such reduction in the capital cost will require a fundamental re-evaluation of the industry standards and regulatory basis under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. The objective of this study is to develop the risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology for future nuclear power plants. In order to meet this objective, the design simplification method is developed and RIA design methodology exercised for conceptual system. For the methodology verification, simplified conceptual ECCS and feedwater system are developed, then LOCA sensitivity analyses and agressive secondary cooldown analyses for these systems are performed. In addition, the probability safety assessment (PSA) model for LOCA is developed and the validation of RIA design methodology is demonstrated

  11. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  12. Integrated HTA-FMEA/FMECA methodology for the evaluation of robotic system in urology and general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frosini, Francesco; Miniati, Roberto; Grillone, Saverio; Dori, Fabrizio; Gentili, Guido Biffi; Belardinelli, Andrea

    2016-11-14

    The following study proposes and tests an integrated methodology involving Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for the assessment of specific aspects related to robotic surgery involving safety, process and technology. The integrated methodology consists of the application of specific techniques coming from the HTA joined to the aid of the most typical models from reliability engineering such as FMEA/FMECA. The study has also included in-site data collection and interviews to medical personnel. The total number of robotic procedures included in the analysis was 44: 28 for urology and 16 for general surgery. The main outcomes refer to the comparative evaluation between robotic, laparoscopic and open surgery. Risk analysis and mitigation interventions come from FMECA application. The small sample size available for the study represents an important bias, especially for the clinical outcomes reliability. Despite this, the study seems to confirm the better trend for robotics' surgical times with comparison to the open technique as well as confirming the robotics' clinical benefits in urology. More complex situation is observed for general surgery, where robotics' clinical benefits directly measured are the lowest blood transfusion rate.

  13. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hun Lee

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  14. RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

    2016-05-01

    Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. UPCaD: A Methodology of Integration Between Ontology-Based Context-Awareness Modeling and Relational Domain Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinícius Maran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Context-awareness is a key feature for ubiquitous computing scenarios applications. Currently, technologies and methodologies have been proposed for the integration of context-awareness concepts in intelligent information systems to adapt them to the execution of services, user interfaces and data retrieval. Recent research proposed conceptual modeling alternatives to the integration of the domain modeling in RDBMS and context-awareness modeling. The research described using highly expressiveness ontologies. The present work describes the UPCaD (Unified Process for Integration between Context-Awareness and Domain methodology, which is composed of formalisms and processes to guide the data integration considering RDBMS and context modeling. The methodology was evaluated in a virtual learning environment application. The evaluation shows the possibility to use a highly expressive context ontology to filter the relational data query and discusses the main contributions of the methodology compared with recent approaches.

  16. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  17. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  18. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  20. Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOBER, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

  1. Development of a methodology for conducting an integrated HRA/PRA --. Task 1, An assessment of human reliability influences during LP&S conditions PWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckas, W.J.; Barriere, M.T.; Brown, W.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Wreathall, J. [Wreathall (John) and Co., Dublin, OH (United States); Cooper, S.E. [Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1993-06-01

    During Low Power and Shutdown (LP&S) conditions in a nuclear power plant (i.e., when the reactor is subcritical or at less than 10--15% power), human interactions with the plant`s systems will be more frequent and more direct. Control is typically not mediated by automation, and there are fewer protective systems available. Therefore, an assessment of LP&S related risk should include a greater emphasis on human reliability than such an assessment made for power operation conditions. In order to properly account for the increase in human interaction and thus be able to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) applicable to operations during LP&S, it is important that a comprehensive human reliability assessment (HRA) methodology be developed and integrated into the LP&S PRA. The tasks comprising the comprehensive HRA methodology development are as follows: (1) identification of the human reliability related influences and associated human actions during LP&S, (2) identification of potentially important LP&S related human actions and appropriate HRA framework and quantification methods, and (3) incorporation and coordination of methodology development with other integrated PRA/HRA efforts. This paper describes the first task, i.e., the assessment of human reliability influences and any associated human actions during LP&S conditions for a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  2. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  3. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; Dillon, R.T.; Tierney, M.S.; Davis, H.T.; McGrath, P.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Shaw, H.R.; Helton, J.C.; Donath, F.A.

    1978-10-01

    The Fuel Cycle Risk Analysis Division of Sandia Laboratories is funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop a methodology for assessment of the long-term risks from radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media. The first phase of this work, which is documented in this report, involves the following: (1) development of analytical models to represent the processes by which radioactive waste might leave the waste repository, enter the surface environment and eventually reach humans and (2) definition of a hypothetical ''reference system'' to provide a realistic setting for exercise of the models in a risk or safety assessment. The second phase of this work, which will be documented in a later report, will involve use of the analytical models in a demonstration risk or safety assessment of the reference system. The analytical methods and data developed in this study are expected to form the basis for a portion of the NRC repository licensing methodology

  4. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  5. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

  6. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  7. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Lappa, D.A.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Chuang, T.Y.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Maslenikov, O.R.; Tiong, L.W.; Ravindra, M.K.; Kincaid, R.H.; Sues, R.H.; Putcha, C.S.

    1993-11-01

    This report describes the methodology used and the results obtained from the application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2. This study is part of the Level I analysis being performed by the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Using the RMIEP developed event and fault trees, the analysis resulted in a seismically induced core damage frequency point estimate of 6.OE-7/yr. This result, combined with the component importance analysis, indicated that system failures were dominated by random events. The dominant components included diesel generator failures (failure to swing, failure to start, failure to run after started), and condensate storage tank

  8. Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

  9. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  10. Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Grau-Moya

    Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

  11. The KNOMAD Methodology for Integration of Multi-Disciplinary Engineering Knowledge within Aerospace Production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curran, R.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Van Tooren, M.J.L.

    2010-01-01

    The paper is associated with the integration of multi-disciplinary knowledge within a Knowledge Based Engineering (KBE)-enabled design framework. To support this integration effort, the KNOMAD methodology has been devised. KNOMAD stands for Knowledge Optimized Manufacture And Design and is a

  12. Integrating Shamanic Methodology into the Spirituality of Addictions Recovery Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Marcia L.

    2012-01-01

    Responding to an increased recognition of the importance of spirituality in the aetiology and treatment of addictions, this article provides an overview of the potential contributions of both transpersonal psychology and shamanic methodology for the addictions field. A case study is provided to illustrate the integration of conventional,…

  13. Applied methodology for replacement pipe arcs in integral pipelines TE 'Oslomej'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temelkoska Bratica K.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The integral pipelines in thermal power plants present a linear spatial bearing construction with high operating parameters, complex static and dynamic load. The integral pipelines along its entire length are hanging on construction spring hangers from the boiler building, where the boiler is placed, next to the machine hall where the turbine is placed. Therefore, it is important to monitor the condition and to remove any possible defects from the applied methods. This paper describes the methodology of replacement of the pipe arch on one of the integral pipelines-the line for hot superheated steam. In addition, in this paper are given the method methods that led to this methodology for testing and evaluation of the condition of the pipe arch material that had been in exploitation and the new pipe arch that will be embedded. Furthermore the approach, the technology of replacement, anchoring of the steam line, technology of welding etc., as well as the preparation of the final design of constructed condition are also covered in this paper.

  14. An integrated methodology for characterizing flow and transport processes in fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yu-Shu

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the coupled processes involved in fluid and heat flow and chemical transport in the highly heterogeneous, unsaturated-zone (UZ) fractured rock of Yucca Mountain, we present an integrated modeling methodology. This approach integrates a wide variety of moisture, pneumatic, thermal, and geochemical isotopic field data into a comprehensive three-dimensional numerical model for modeling analyses. The results of field applications of the methodology show that moisture data, such as water potential and liquid saturation, are not sufficient to determine in situ percolation flux, whereas temperature and geochemical isotopic data provide better constraints to net infiltration rates and flow patterns. In addition, pneumatic data are found to be extremely valuable in estimating large-scale fracture permeability. The integration of hydrologic, pneumatic, temperature, and geochemical data into modeling analyses is thereby demonstrated to provide a practical modeling approach for characterizing flow and transport processes in complex fractured formations

  15. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  16. Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

  18. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2014-07-01

    KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) in the considered region, by comparing the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow to identify and prioritize relative hotspots and targets which are more likely to be affected by flood and support the development of relevant and strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. Moreover, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity).

  19. Integral Methodological Pluralism in Science Education Research: Valuing Multiple Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nancy T.; Callihan, Laurie P.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the multiple methodologies used in educational research and proposes a model that includes all of them as contributing to understanding educational contexts and research from multiple perspectives. The model, based on integral theory (Wilber in a theory of everything. Shambhala, Boston, 2000) values all forms of research as…

  20. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  1. Methodology of life cycle cost with risk expenditure for offshore process at conceptual design stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Kiil; Chang, Daejun; Chang, Kwangpil; Rhee, Taejin; Lee, In-Beum

    2011-01-01

    This study proposed a new LCC (life cycle cost) methodology with the risk expenditure taken into account for comparative evaluation of offshore process options at their conceptual design stage. The risk expenditure consisted of the failure risk expenditure and the accident risk expenditure. The former accounted for the production loss and the maintenance expense due to equipment failures while the latter reflected the asset damage and the fatality worth caused by disastrous accidents such as fire and explosion. It was demonstrated that the new LCC methodology was capable of playing the role of a process selection basis in choosing the best of the liquefaction process options including the power generation systems for a floating LNG (Liquefied natural gas) production facility. Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. The new methodology with the risk expenditure, however, indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines should be the optimum choice, mainly due to its better availability and safety. -- Highlights: → The study presented the methodology of the LCC with the risk expenditure for the conceptual design of offshore processes. → The proposed methodology demonstrated the applicability of the liquefaction unit with the power generation system of LNG FPSO. → Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. → The new methodology indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines is the optimum choice due to its better availability and safety.

  2. Integrated Management System – Scope, Possibilities And Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čekanová Katarína

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Organizations are becoming more aware of the importance of integrated management systems (IMS. Interest in this subject indicates that IMS are seen as “management systems of the future”. Based on this, the aim of this articles characterizes the possibility of building IMS through the identification of common elements and specific requirements in accordance with the ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 professional references. Part of the article is the methodology of building IMS in the organization.

  3. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Carrillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  4. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  5. Analyzing the Feasibility of Using Secure Application Integration Methodology (SAIM) for Integrating DON Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Marin, Ramon

    2004-01-01

    ...) would provide useful information about a beneficial methodology. SAIM is analyzed, by accessing its step by step directions, for suitability in the integration of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP...

  6. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  7. Risk analysis methodology in microbiological assays of 99mTc lyophilized kits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro Isaac, Marilín; Suárez Beyries, Karina; Alberti Ramírez, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    The operations with medications require of the execution of requirements settled down in the Good Practices, with the objective of guaranteeing the quality, security and effectiveness of the same ones. The Good Practices of Production of Pharmaceutical Products (BPF), are essential parts of the Quality Management System, to which incorporates like integral part the Quality Risk Assessment (ARC). The System of ARC is directed mainly to guarantee the patient's health, which can be affected so much by the lack of readiness of the medications, like for a quality, security and inadequate effectiveness of these products. As part of the process of ARC, tools will be applied with the objective of establishing a process of taking of decisions with a scientific and practice bases. The Modal Analysis of Flaw and Effect (AMFE) is one of the tools that is used to evaluate the shortcomings that can happen in a process and their probable consequences in the results and/or in the behavior of the products. In this work the methodology settled down to carry out the evaluation of the risk of flaw of the quality microbiological of the lyophilized taken place in CENTIS, using the method AMFE. The scales of values settled down for the severity (S), the occurrence probability (OR) and the detection probability (D) and the levels of risk starting from the risk matrix obtained.

  8. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  9. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  10. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  11. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  12. Application of integrated fuzzy VIKOR & AHP methodology to contractor ranking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Rahim Ramezaniyan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Contractor selection is a critical activity, which plays an important role in the overall success of any construction project. The implementation of fuzzy multiple criteria decision attribute (MCDA in selecting contractors has the advantage of rendering subjective and implicit decision making more objective and transparent. An additional merit of fuzzy MCDA is the ability to accommodate quantitative and qualitative information. In this paper, an integrated VIKOR–AHP methodology is proposed to make a selection among the alternative contractors in one of Iranian construction industry projects. In the proposed methodology, the weights of the selection criteria are determined by fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices of AHP.

  13. A case on vendor selection methodology: An integrated approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikhil C. Shil

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Vendor selection methodology is a highly researched area in supply chain management l terature and a very significant decision taken by supply chain managers due to technological advances in the manufacturing process. Such research has two basic dimensions: one is related to the identification of variables affecting the performance of the vendors and the other deals with the methodology to be applied. Most of the research conducted in this area deal with the upfront selection of vendors. However, it is very common to have a list of dedicated vendors due to the development of sophisticated production technologies like just in time (JIT, a lean or agile manufacturing process where continuous flow of materials is a requirement. This paper addresses the issue of selecting the optimal vendor from the internal database of a company. Factor analysis, analytical hierarchy process and regression analysis is used in an integrated way to supplement the vendor selection process. The methodology presented here is simply a proposal where every possible room for adjustment is available.

  14. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  15. Integrated supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

    2007-01-01

    Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

  16. International developments on implementation of Wog risk-informed inservice inspection methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.; Canton, M.A.; Closky, N.B.; Haessler, R.L.; Kolonay, J.F.; Sharp, G.L.; Stevenson, P.R.

    2001-01-01

    The full text follows. The Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) risk-informed inservice inspection (ISI) methodology was granted approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1998 thereby providing an alternative to ASME Section XI Code requirements for the selection of examination locations in nuclear plant piping systems. This paper builds upon a technical paper presented at ICONE-8 that reported on the first wave of risk-informed ISI applications under development primarily focusing on those underway within the U.S. Since that time, many applications have continued within the U.S., however, much progress has been made in applying the WOG risk-informed ISI approach in several other countries. While a summary of results across the various applications will be provided, the paper will focus on the development and implementation of the WOG risk-informed ISI methodology across Europe and in Asia for both full scope and limited Class 1 scope applications. An update on future risk-informed applications, such as modifying requirements for augmented examinations for high energy line break exclusion regions and in risk-informing the safety classification of pressure boundary components in support of risk-informed regulation initiatives, will also be provided. (authors)

  17. Integrating rock mechanics issues with repository design through design process principles and methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieniawski, Z.T.

    1996-01-01

    A good designer needs not only knowledge for designing (technical know-how that is used to generate alternative design solutions) but also must have knowledge about designing (appropriate principles and systematic methodology to follow). Concepts such as open-quotes design for manufactureclose quotes or open-quotes concurrent engineeringclose quotes are widely used in the industry. In the field of rock engineering, only limited attention has been paid to the design process because design of structures in rock masses presents unique challenges to the designers as a result of the uncertainties inherent in characterization of geologic media. However, a stage has now been reached where we are be able to sufficiently characterize rock masses for engineering purposes and identify the rock mechanics issues involved but are still lacking engineering design principles and methodology to maximize our design performance. This paper discusses the principles and methodology of the engineering design process directed to integrating site characterization activities with design, construction and performance of an underground repository. Using the latest information from the Yucca Mountain Project on geology, rock mechanics and starter tunnel design, the current lack of integration is pointed out and it is shown how rock mechanics issues can be effectively interwoven with repository design through a systematic design process methodology leading to improved repository performance. In essence, the design process is seen as the use of design principles within an integrating design methodology, leading to innovative problem solving. In particular, a new concept of open-quotes Design for Constructibility and Performanceclose quotes is introduced. This is discussed with respect to ten rock mechanics issues identified for repository design and performance

  18. Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

  19. Qualification program of the ASTRID SFR project: definition, methodology and associated risk evaluation and management - 15093

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, G.; Dirat, J.F.; Traina, A.; Christofari, M.

    2015-01-01

    The Preconceptual Design phase of the ASTRID French Sodium Fast Reactor project had the objective to integrate innovative options to meet the requirements of the 4. generation reactors and to comply with the related specifications. It was followed by the conceptual phase studies (AVP2 phase 2013-2015) where some technical options are left opened with an advanced option and a backup alternative. In the same time of the AVP2 phase studies, the qualification program related to ASTRID project was initiated. It consists in collecting the exhaustive list of research/development (R/D) needs and technological demonstration tests to be fulfilled on representative mockup prior to component implementation in the prototype. The ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) objectives are to collect needs expressed by all engineering companies involved in ASTRID, and then to organize the answer to this expression of needs. This significant work of needs compilation has been divided in several tasks, according to the ASTRID project decomposition in the Product Breakdown Structure (PBS). Compilation of needs was jointly performed by engineering company, R/D responsible and coordinated by the ASTRID Qualification project responsible. It was associated with an evaluation of the maturity level of the technical options thanks to a Technological Readiness Level grid (TRL ranking table), an identification of major risks, and an evaluation of the R/D potentiality and associated facility platform. The methodology applied for the ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) is presented. It is explained what methodology was used associated to the TRL process, and how is managed the associated risk analysis evaluation: evaluation of major risks, definition of a risk portfolio and a corresponding Action Plan for risk reduction (synthesized under the REM acronym: Risk Evaluation and Management). This methodology is a mean used to facilitate ASTRID risk-informed decision making, technology qualification and

  20. A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

  1. Methodology for assessment of safety risk due to potential accidents in US gaseous diffusion plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.H.; O'Kain, D.U.

    1991-01-01

    Gaseous diffusion plants that operate in the United States represent a unique combination of nuclear and chemical hazards. Assessing and controlling the health, safety, and environmental risks that can result from natural phenomena events, process upset conditions, and operator errors require a unique methodology. Such a methodology has been developed for the diffusion plants and is being utilized to assess and control the risk of operating the plants. A summary of the methodology developed to assess the unique safety risks at the US gaseous diffusion plants is presented in this paper

  2. Application of the risk-informed methodology for APR1400 P-T limits curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.; Namgung, I. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    A reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant has operational limits of pressure and temperature to prevent a potential drastic propagation of cracks due to brittle fracture. We call it a pressure-temperature limits curve (P-T limits curve). Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, provides deterministic procedures to develop the P-T limits curve for the reactor pressure vessel. Recently, an alternative risk-informed methodology has been added in the ASME Code. Risk-informed means that we can consider insights from a probabilistic risk assessment by using this methodology. This alternative methodology provides a simple procedure to develop risk-informed P-T limits for heat up, cool down, and hydrostatic test events. The risk-informed P-T limits curve is known to provide more operational flexibility, particularly for reactor pressure vessels with relatively high irradiation levels and radiation sensitive materials. In this paper, we developed both the deterministic and a risk-informed P-T limits curve for an APR1400 reactor using Appendix G of the ASME Code, Section XI and compare the results in terms of additional operational margin. (author)

  3. Propulsion integration of hypersonic air-breathing vehicles utilizing a top-down design methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkpatrick, Brad Kenneth

    In recent years, a focus of aerospace engineering design has been the development of advanced design methodologies and frameworks to account for increasingly complex and integrated vehicles. Techniques such as parametric modeling, global vehicle analyses, and interdisciplinary data sharing have been employed in an attempt to improve the design process. The purpose of this study is to introduce a new approach to integrated vehicle design known as the top-down design methodology. In the top-down design methodology, the main idea is to relate design changes on the vehicle system and sub-system level to a set of over-arching performance and customer requirements. Rather than focusing on the performance of an individual system, the system is analyzed in terms of the net effect it has on the overall vehicle and other vehicle systems. This detailed level of analysis can only be accomplished through the use of high fidelity computational tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) or Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The utility of the top-down design methodology is investigated through its application to the conceptual and preliminary design of a long-range hypersonic air-breathing vehicle for a hypothetical next generation hypersonic vehicle (NHRV) program. System-level design is demonstrated through the development of the nozzle section of the propulsion system. From this demonstration of the methodology, conclusions are made about the benefits, drawbacks, and cost of using the methodology.

  4. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  5. Fusion integral experiments and analysis and the determination of design safety factors - I: Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youssef, M.Z.; Kumar, A.; Abdou, M.A.; Oyama, Y.; Maekawa, H.

    1995-01-01

    The role of the neutronics experimentation and analysis in fusion neutronics research and development programs is discussed. A new methodology was developed to arrive at estimates to design safety factors based on the experimental and analytical results from design-oriented integral experiments. In this methodology, and for a particular nuclear response, R, a normalized density function (NDF) is constructed from the prediction uncertainties, and their associated standard deviations, as found in the various integral experiments where that response, R, is measured. Important statistical parameters are derived from the NDF, such as the global mean prediction uncertainty, and the possible spread around it. The method of deriving safety factors from many possible NDFs based on various calculational and measuring methods (among other variants) is also described. Associated with each safety factor is a confidence level, designers may choose to have, that the calculated response, R, will not exceed (or will not fall below) the actual measured value. An illustrative example is given on how to construct the NDFs. The methodology is applied in two areas, namely the line-integrated tritium production rate and bulk shielding integral experiments. Conditions under which these factors could be derived and the validity of the method are discussed. 72 refs., 17 figs., 4 tabs

  6. Environmental integrated impact assessment for waste treatment activity: methodology and case-study application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lonati, G.; Panzeri, A.

    2008-01-01

    A literature method for the environmental integrated impact assessment, according to the IPPC Directive, has been critically analysed and adjusted in order to be used for the environmental performance assessment of waste treatment activities. The assessment parameters, sorted in eight treatment and combined pollution categories, have been partly redefined and re balanced. The adjusted methodology has been applied to a real case-study, a chemical- physical waste treatment plant, in order to calculate the current performance (Actual Integrated Index) and the ideal performance (Actual Integrated Index) achievable by technical and operational improvements. The adjusted methodology has also been used as a decision support system, in order to estimate the value of the expected environmental performances improvement after the execution achievable from the introduction of a single one or a set of improvement actions. The valuation of the Integrated Index percentage reduction, along with the action achievable, made the best actions able to be identified, both in comparative way and in the cost-effective one. The results, 50 as Effective Integrated Index and 42 as Ideal Integrated Index, in a 10-100 scale, show a medium impact level and point out an appreciable improvement margin on all the environmental performances, especially in air emission control and water consumption [it

  7. The Integration of Project-Based Methodology into Teaching in Machine Translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madkour, Magda

    2016-01-01

    This quantitative-qualitative analytical research aimed at investigating the effect of integrating project-based teaching methodology into teaching machine translation on students' performance. Data was collected from the graduate students in the College of Languages and Translation, at Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi…

  8. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  9. Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

    2009-07-01

    Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

  10. RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    This report includes the description and development plan for a Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology that will evaluate multihazard risk in an integrated manner to support the operating nuclear fleet.

  11. RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin Leigh

    2016-01-01

    This report includes the description and development plan for a Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology that will evaluate multihazard risk in an integrated manner to support the operating nuclear fleet.

  12. Statistical Methodologies to Integrate Experimental and Computational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, P. A.; Johnson, R. T.; Montgomery, D. C.

    2008-01-01

    Development of advanced algorithms for simulating engine flow paths requires the integration of fundamental experiments with the validation of enhanced mathematical models. In this paper, we provide an overview of statistical methods to strategically and efficiently conduct experiments and computational model refinement. Moreover, the integration of experimental and computational research efforts is emphasized. With a statistical engineering perspective, scientific and engineering expertise is combined with statistical sciences to gain deeper insights into experimental phenomenon and code development performance; supporting the overall research objectives. The particular statistical methods discussed are design of experiments, response surface methodology, and uncertainty analysis and planning. Their application is illustrated with a coaxial free jet experiment and a turbulence model refinement investigation. Our goal is to provide an overview, focusing on concepts rather than practice, to demonstrate the benefits of using statistical methods in research and development, thereby encouraging their broader and more systematic application.

  13. A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornsife, W.P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

  14. Methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudiz, A.; Brenot, J.; Cessac, B.; Charbonneau, P.; Maigne, J.P.; Santucci, P.

    2000-01-01

    rehabilitation, but with restrictions forbidding other uses in the future, - or if the site deserves detailed risk assessment before any decision about rehabilitation. When detailed risk assessment is necessary, stakeholders involvement allows a better integration of local habits and helps clarifying the hypotheses and uncertainties underlying the assessment process. Detailed risk assessment allows a proper characterisation of the various alternative strategies which could be implemented in view of rehabilitating the site (including 'do nothing'). The paper will describe a very pragmatic way of optimising radiological protection. For this, the strategies need to be thoroughly characterised, namely in terms of: individual effective dose reduction in the reference group, distribution and average radionuclide concentration in the soil, average dose rate within the site, average contamination of foodstuff, according to the local consumers specific habits, type of remediation technique; volume of wastes, duration of the rehabilitation process, average dose and number of workers involved with remediation, costs of remediation and waste disposal, nuisances associated with the implementation of the remediation technique (noise, truck road traffic, ...). The characterisation of the rehabilitation strategies helps the stakeholders in deciding what should be done. However, their choice will generally involve other considerations, dealing with social and economical considerations which go beyond the radiological aspects of the problem. The paper will then argue the fact that the strategies should be presented to the stakeholders in a way allowing an in depth discussion of their benefits and drawbacks, for example as tables describing the strategies according to their above mentioned characteristics. The methodology does not include in a first stage the use of quantitative techniques such as cost-benefit or multicriteria analysis, because it does not appear the most appropriate way to

  15. [Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

    2011-01-01

    Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

  16. Methodology of the Integrated Analysis of Company's Financial Status and Its Performance Results

    OpenAIRE

    Mackevičius, Jonas; Valkauskas, Romualdas

    2010-01-01

    Information about company's financial status and its performance results is very important for the objective evaluation of company's position in the market and competitive possibilities in the future. Such information is provided in the financial statement. It is important to apply and investigate this information properly. The methodology of company's financial status and performance results integrated analysis is recommended in this article. This methodology consists of these three elements...

  17. A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-04-01

    Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the

  18. A Comparison Study on the Integrated Risk Estimation for Various Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, J. J.; Kim, S. H.; Jeong, J. T.; Min, K. R.; Kim, K. Y.

    2007-06-01

    -based questionnaire method to collect the subjective opinions of the expert groups, while economic, health, and environmental aspects are dealt with by the objective information obtained from the literatures available, assessment results, or a calculation output. In the third phase of nuclear research and development program (2005-2006), the system and databases for the integrated risk comparison for various power systems have been established by combining the methodologies introduced in the second phase of the nuclear research and' development program

  19. Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

  20. Integrated supply chain risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaan Bredell

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

  1. An integrated methodology for the dynamic performance and reliability evaluation of fault-tolerant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez-Garcia, Alejandro D.; Kassakian, John G.; Schindall, Joel E.; Zinchuk, Jeffrey J.

    2008-01-01

    We propose an integrated methodology for the reliability and dynamic performance analysis of fault-tolerant systems. This methodology uses a behavioral model of the system dynamics, similar to the ones used by control engineers to design the control system, but also incorporates artifacts to model the failure behavior of each component. These artifacts include component failure modes (and associated failure rates) and how those failure modes affect the dynamic behavior of the component. The methodology bases the system evaluation on the analysis of the dynamics of the different configurations the system can reach after component failures occur. For each of the possible system configurations, a performance evaluation of its dynamic behavior is carried out to check whether its properties, e.g., accuracy, overshoot, or settling time, which are called performance metrics, meet system requirements. Markov chains are used to model the stochastic process associated with the different configurations that a system can adopt when failures occur. This methodology not only enables an integrated framework for evaluating dynamic performance and reliability of fault-tolerant systems, but also enables a method for guiding the system design process, and further optimization. To illustrate the methodology, we present a case-study of a lateral-directional flight control system for a fighter aircraft

  2. How to conduct a qualitative meta-analysis: Tailoring methods to enhance methodological integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitt, Heidi M

    2018-05-01

    Although qualitative research has long been of interest in the field of psychology, meta-analyses of qualitative literatures (sometimes called meta-syntheses) are still quite rare. Like quantitative meta-analyses, these methods function to aggregate findings and identify patterns across primary studies, but their aims, procedures, and methodological considerations may vary. This paper explains the function of qualitative meta-analyses and their methodological development. Recommendations have broad relevance but are framed with an eye toward their use in psychotherapy research. Rather than arguing for the adoption of any single meta-method, this paper advocates for considering how procedures can best be selected and adapted to enhance a meta-study's methodological integrity. Through the paper, recommendations are provided to help researchers identify procedures that can best serve their studies' specific goals. Meta-analysts are encouraged to consider the methodological integrity of their studies in relation to central research processes, including identifying a set of primary research studies, transforming primary findings into initial units of data for a meta-analysis, developing categories or themes, and communicating findings. The paper provides guidance for researchers who desire to tailor meta-analytic methods to meet their particular goals while enhancing the rigor of their research.

  3. Risk analysis methodology for unreprocessed spent fuel disposal in bedded salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepping, R.E.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1982-01-01

    In accordance with the decision to defer the reprocessing of commercially generated spent fuel, we are investigating the implications on risk of direct disposal of spent fuel assemblies. To the extent possible, we are using the methodology developed at Sandia for the NRC to evaluate risks from the disposal of wastes from reprocessing of spent fuel. This allows direct comparison of the risks calculated for the two waste forms. A number of differences between the two waste forms with implications on risk have been identified and investigation of their effects has begun. Among these are the presence of gases and additional plutonium and uranium isotopes, the potential for differing leach behavior, and the difference in the decay heat source which determines the overall thermomechanical response of the host media. We have analyzed a number of scenarios for a hypothetical geologic repository that have been identified as important contributors to risk from the disposal of both reprocessed and unreprocessed spent fuel. For each scenario, we employ the Groundwater Transport, Pathways to Man, and Dosimetry and Health Effects models of the High Level Waste Methodology. Risks are compared for the reprocessed and unreprocessed spent fuel wastes and the effects of uncertainty in the parameters of the various models are compared

  4. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  5. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  6. Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)

  7. Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

    2014-01-01

    This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

  8. Integral Design Methodology of Photocatalytic Reactors for Air Pollution Remediation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Passalía

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available An integral reactor design methodology was developed to address the optimal design of photocatalytic wall reactors to be used in air pollution control. For a target pollutant to be eliminated from an air stream, the proposed methodology is initiated with a mechanistic derived reaction rate. The determination of intrinsic kinetic parameters is associated with the use of a simple geometry laboratory scale reactor, operation under kinetic control and a uniform incident radiation flux, which allows computing the local superficial rate of photon absorption. Thus, a simple model can describe the mass balance and a solution may be obtained. The kinetic parameters may be estimated by the combination of the mathematical model and the experimental results. The validated intrinsic kinetics obtained may be directly used in the scaling-up of any reactor configuration and size. The bench scale reactor may require the use of complex computational software to obtain the fields of velocity, radiation absorption and species concentration. The complete methodology was successfully applied to the elimination of airborne formaldehyde. The kinetic parameters were determined in a flat plate reactor, whilst a bench scale corrugated wall reactor was used to illustrate the scaling-up methodology. In addition, an optimal folding angle of the corrugated reactor was found using computational fluid dynamics tools.

  9. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I. A knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P.S.; Thomsen, M.; Assmuth, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environ...... and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management.......This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human...... and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again...

  10. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

  11. Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

  12. Audit Methodology for IT Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela GHEORGHE

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The continuous development of the new IT technologies was followed up by a rapid integration of them at the organization level. The management of the organizations face a new challenge: structural redefinition of the IT component in order to create plus value and to minimize IT risks through an efficient management of all IT resources of the organization. These changes have had a great impact on the governance of the IT component. The paper proposes an audit methodology of the IT Governance at the organization level. From this point of view the developed audit strategy is a strategy based on risks to enable IT auditor to study from the best angle efficiency and effectiveness of the IT Governance structure. The evaluation of the risks associated with IT Governance is a key process in planning the audit mission which will allow the identification of the segments with increased risks. With now ambition for completeness, the proposed methodology provides the auditor a useful tool in the accomplishment of his mission.

  13. Radiological risk assessment for the public under the loss of medium and large sources using bayesian methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Jang, Han Ki; Lee, Jai Ki

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5% Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative for risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety

  14. Risk management of onsite transportation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field, J.G.; Wang, O.S.; Mercado, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site recently has undergone a significant change in mission. The focus of operations has shifted from plutonium production to environmental restoration. This transition has caused a substantial increase in quantities of nuclear waste and other hazardous materials packaged and transported onsite. In response to the escalating transportation activity, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), the Hanford Site operations and engineering contractor, is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to enhance the safety of onsite packaging and transportation operations involving nuclear waste. The proposed methodology consists of three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization. The purpose of the methodology is to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable and to minimize the overall risk for current and future onsite operations. (authors). 2 figs., 6 refs

  15. Risk management of onsite transportation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field, J.G.; Wang, O.S.; Mercado, J.E.

    1993-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site recently has undergone a significant change in mission. The focus of operations has shifted from plutonium production to environmental restoration. This transition has caused a substantial increase in quantities of nuclear waste and other hazardous materials packaged and transported onsite. In response to the escalating transportation activity, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), the Hanford Site operations and engineering contractor, is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to enhance the safety of onsite packaging and transportation operations involving nuclear waste. The proposed methodology consists of three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization. The purpose of the methodology is to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable and to minimize the overall risk for current and future onsite operations

  16. Criticality accident studies and methodology implemented at the CEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbry, Francis; Fouillaud, Patrick; Reverdy, Ludovic; Mijuin, Dominique

    2003-01-01

    Based on the studies and results of experimental programs performed since 1967 in the CRAC, then SILENE facilities, the CEA has devised a methodology for criticality accident studies. This methodology integrates all the main focuses of its approach, from criticality accident phenomenology to emergency planning and response, and thus includes aspects such as criticality alarm detector triggering, airborne releases, and irradiation risk assessment. (author)

  17. Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Joseph Daniel [Idaho National Laboratory; Anderson, Robert Stephen [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-06-01

    Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operation can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.

  18. A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2006-01-01

    A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

  19. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Top-down design and verification methodology for analog mixed-signal integrated circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beviz, P.

    2016-01-01

    The current report contains the introduction of a novel Top-Down Design and Verification methodology for AMS integrated circuits. With the introduction of new design and verification flow, more reliable and efficient development of AMS ICs is possible. The assignment incorporated the research on the

  1. THERP and HEART integrated methodology for human error assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castiglia, Francesco; Giardina, Mariarosa; Tomarchio, Elio

    2015-11-01

    THERP and HEART integrated methodology is proposed to investigate accident scenarios that involve operator errors during high-dose-rate (HDR) treatments. The new approach has been modified on the basis of fuzzy set concept with the aim of prioritizing an exhaustive list of erroneous tasks that can lead to patient radiological overexposures. The results allow for the identification of human errors that are necessary to achieve a better understanding of health hazards in the radiotherapy treatment process, so that it can be properly monitored and appropriately managed.

  2. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

  3. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

  4. Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2006-02-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

  5. Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

    2011-01-01

    In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

  6. Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

    2017-12-29

    Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a

  7. Compliance Parameters through Risk Analysis Methodology for Strict Liability Mitigation According to the Law Anti- Corruption (12.846 / 2013 Regarding Public Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Miranda Batisti

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Law 12,846 / 2013 has the scope to fight it and enable companies to become active agents in this intent. The repressive aspect of the legislation can be mitigated if the company adopts strategies of prevention through compliance programs. The preventive effectiveness of this law will depend on the analysis of legal aspects and business management topics. The risk analysis methodology and the adoption of objective parameters for the management of anti-corruption risks, allows companies to build an integrity program that puts in focus the ethical actions necessary for companies willing to negotiate with the government.

  8. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Integrating FMEA in a Model-Driven Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scippacercola, Fabio; Pietrantuono, Roberto; Russo, Stefano; Esper, Alexandre; Silva, Nuno

    2016-08-01

    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a well known technique for evaluating the effects of potential failures of components of a system. FMEA demands for engineering methods and tools able to support the time- consuming tasks of the analyst. We propose to make FMEA part of the design of a critical system, by integration into a model-driven methodology. We show how to conduct the analysis of failure modes, propagation and effects from SysML design models, by means of custom diagrams, which we name FMEA Diagrams. They offer an additional view of the system, tailored to FMEA goals. The enriched model can then be exploited to automatically generate FMEA worksheet and to conduct qualitative and quantitative analyses. We present a case study from a real-world project.

  10. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.; Kido, C.; Phillips, J.H.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues

  11. Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; El-Bassioni, A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed

  12. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

  13. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-01-01

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

  14. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  15. Are Earth Sciences lagging behind in data integration methodologies?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Paasche, H

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects discussions German and South African Earth scientists, statisticians and risk analysts had on occasion of two bilateral workshops on Data Integration Technologies for Earth System Modelling and Resource Management...

  16. Randomized clinical trials in dentistry: Risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodologic quality over the years 1955-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humam Saltaji

    Full Text Available To examine the risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions and the development of these aspects over time.We included 540 randomized clinical trials from 64 selected systematic reviews. We extracted, in duplicate, details from each of the selected randomized clinical trials with respect to publication and trial characteristics, reporting and methodologic characteristics, and Cochrane risk of bias domains. We analyzed data using logistic regression and Chi-square statistics.Sequence generation was assessed to be inadequate (at unclear or high risk of bias in 68% (n = 367 of the trials, while allocation concealment was inadequate in the majority of trials (n = 464; 85.9%. Blinding of participants and blinding of the outcome assessment were judged to be inadequate in 28.5% (n = 154 and 40.5% (n = 219 of the trials, respectively. A sample size calculation before the initiation of the study was not performed/reported in 79.1% (n = 427 of the trials, while the sample size was assessed as adequate in only 17.6% (n = 95 of the trials. Two thirds of the trials were not described as double blinded (n = 358; 66.3%, while the method of blinding was appropriate in 53% (n = 286 of the trials. We identified a significant decrease over time (1955-2013 in the proportion of trials assessed as having inadequately addressed methodological quality items (P < 0.05 in 30 out of the 40 quality criteria, or as being inadequate (at high or unclear risk of bias in five domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: sequence generation, allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, other sources of bias, and overall risk of bias.The risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions have improved over time; however, further efforts that contribute to the development of more stringent

  17. Determining the number of kanbans for dynamic production systems: An integrated methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Uzun Araz

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Just-in-time (JIT is a management philosophy that reduces the inventory levels and eliminates manufacturing wastes by producing only the right quantity at the right time. A kanban system is one of the key elements of JIT philosophy. Kanbans are used to authorize production and to control movement of materials in JIT systems. In Kanban systems, the efficiency of the manufacturing system depends on several factors such as number of kanbans, container size etc. Hence, determining the number of kanbans is a critical decision in Kanban systems. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used in order to determine the number of kanbans in a dynamic production environment. In this methodology, the changes in system state is monitored in real time manner, and the number of the kanbans are dynamically re-arranged. The proposed methodology integrates simulation, neural networks and Mamdani type fuzzy inference system. The methodology is modelled in simulation environment and applied on a hypothetic production system. We also performed several comparisons for different control policies to show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  18. A study on the methodology of integrated safety assessment on low and intermediate level waste (LILW) managed in temporary storage facility at NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Min Ho

    2010-02-01

    Since 1978, the KHNP has been operating 20 NPPs (16 PWRs and 4 CANDUs) and generating about 67,000 drums (200 L) of LILW (as of December 31, 2005), which have been stored in the temporary storage facility (TSF) at each NPP due to the absence of a repository for the disposal of LILW. Therefore, the period of temporary storage of LILW is so long compared to other countries. Furthermore, the details with respect to the safety analyse on the TSF have not been considered in PSAR and FSAR. Especially, the risk assessment on the TSF has scarcely been conducted as opposed to many researches on the disposal of LILW. Since 2003, however, the IAEA has been recognized on the importance of predispoal management of LILW. And then, the regulatory frame of U.S. NRC was being shifted to risk-based regulation from the deterministic approach. Therefore, most of radioactive wastes including the LILW will be managed in terms of the risk-based graded approach to future regulation system called RIR (risk informed regulation). If the radioactive wastes do not quantitatively deal with the risk-based regulation, the radiological risk on some of radioactive wastes might be overestimated or underestimated regardless of the degree of the risk. According to a consequence of these situations, the numbers of the researches on the predisposal management of LILW have been required for the preparation on new regulatory frame. In this study, the main objective of this study is to establish the methodology of integrated safety assessment on LILW managed in the TSF at NPP, and to develop the integrated safety assessment code for routine operating condition and for for accident analysis on LILW managed in the TSF. In order to establish the methodology of integrated safety assessment on LILW managed in the TSF at NPP, three main parameters were considered: risk-based accident scenarios, radionuclide inventory, and atmospheric dispersion factor (χ/Q). Arbitrary accidents related to LILW management in the

  19. Methodologies of health impact assessment as part of an integrated approach to reduce effects of air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    Aunan, Kristin; Seip, Hans Martin

    1995-01-01

    Quantification of average frequencies of health effects on a population level is an essential part of an integrated assessment of pollution effects. Epidemiological studies seem to provide the best basis for such estimates. This paper gives an introduction to a methodology for health impact assessment. It also gives results from some selected parts of a case-study in Hungary. This study is aimed at testing and improving the methodology for integrated assessment and focuses on energy productio...

  20. Integrated Methodology for Estimating Water Use in Mediterranean Agricultural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George C. Zalidis

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural use is by far the largest consumer of fresh water worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean, where it has reached unsustainable levels, thus posing a serious threat to water resources. Having a good estimate of the water used in an agricultural area would help water managers create incentives for water savings at the farmer and basin level, and meet the demands of the European Water Framework Directive. This work presents an integrated methodology for estimating water use in Mediterranean agricultural areas. It is based on well established methods of estimating the actual evapotranspiration through surface energy fluxes, customized for better performance under the Mediterranean conditions: small parcel sizes, detailed crop pattern, and lack of necessary data. The methodology has been tested and validated on the agricultural plain of the river Strimonas (Greece using a time series of Terra MODIS and Landsat 5 TM satellite images, and used to produce a seasonal water use map at a high spatial resolution. Finally, a tool has been designed to implement the methodology with a user-friendly interface, in order to facilitate its operational use.

  1. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... between strategy and the risks and opportunities faced by the organisation. For this purpose, a web-based research questionnaire was sent to high-level implementers of integrated reporting at companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, where integrated reporting is a listing requirement.

  2. New methodology for analytical calculation of resonance integrals in an heterogeneous medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campos, T.P.R. de; Martinez, A.S.

    1986-01-01

    A new methodology for analytical calculation of Resonance Integral in a typical fuel cell is presented. The expression obtained for the Resonance Integral presents the advantage of being analytical. Its constituent terms are combinations of the well known function J(xi,β) with its partial derivatives in regard to β. This is a general expression for all types of resonance. The parameters used in this method depend on the resonance type and are obtained as a function of the parameter lambda. A simple expression, depending on resonance parameters is proposed for this variable. (Author) [pt

  3. Framework methodology for increased energy efficiency and renewable feedstock integration in industrial clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hackl, Roman; Harvey, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Framework methodology for energy efficiency of process plants and total sites. • Identification of suitable biorefinery based on host site future energy systems. • Case study results show large energy savings of site wide heat integration. • Case study on refrigeration systems: 15% shaft work savings potential. • Case study on biorefinery integration: utility savings potential of up to 37%. - Abstract: Energy intensive industries, such as the bulk chemical industry, are facing major challenges and adopting strategies to face these challenges. This paper investigates options for clusters of chemical process plants to decrease their energy and emission footprints. There is a wide range of technologies and process integration opportunities available for achieving these objectives, including (i) decreasing fossil fuel and electricity demand by increasing heat integration within individual processes and across the total cluster site; (ii) replacing fossil feedstocks with renewables and biorefinery integration with the existing cluster; (iii) increasing external utilization of excess process heat wherever possible. This paper presents an overview of the use of process integration methods for development of chemical clusters. Process simulation, pinch analysis, Total Site Analysis (TSA) and exergy concepts are combined in a holistic approach to identify opportunities to improve energy efficiency and integrate renewable feedstocks within such clusters. The methodology is illustrated by application to a chemical cluster in Stenungsund on the West Coast of Sweden consisting of five different companies operating six process plants. The paper emphasizes and quantifies the gains that can be made by adopting a total site approach for targeting energy efficiency measures within the cluster and when investigating integration opportunities for advanced biorefinery concepts compared to restricting the analysis to the individual constituent plants. The

  4. Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

    2007-01-01

    The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

  5. Integrating chemical and biological status assessment: Assembling lines of evidence for the evaluation of river ecosystem risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz Gracia, Isabel; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes various approaches to evaluating ecological risk in rivers affected by multiple chemical stressors, with emphasis on biofilm and invertebrate community responses. Metrics should be considered as different lines of evidence that, when weighted, form an advanced weight of evidence approach to establishing the environmental risk on a basin scale. Combination of field surveys to obtain observational data of communities, in situ experiments, toxicological sediment tests and a good chemical description of the medium (water and sediment) helps give an integrative view of the chemical and biological state of a river ecosystem. The greater and more distinct the variables used, the greater is our ability to identify the effects of major stressors impairing communities. Weight of evidence is an integrative methodology for tackling the challenge of determining causal relations and applying this knowledge in the decision-making processes of river management.

  6. Methodological issues in the study of risk perception and human behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathbun, P.F.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a broad perspective on the use of the methods and techniques of the behavioral and social sciences as they pertain to the work of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, particularly in issues of risk perception. Four major topics or themes are discussed: (1) a brief overview of the classic theories of risk perception; (2) current contractor work in the area of risk perception and cognitive psychology; (3) other uses of the social and behavioral sciences in the Agency; and (4) methodological considerations in using the techniques

  7. Proposal for implementation risk management according ABNT NBR ISO 31000 standard applied to internal audit process of Integrated Management System of IPEN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scapin Junior, Wilson S.; Salvetti, Tereza C.; Longo, Guilherme C.

    2015-01-01

    The paper objective is to establish a risk management methodology applied to internal audits processes of IPEN Integrated Management System (IMS). In continuous seeking of updating methodologies to assist effective management based on the constant changes in the organizational world, and the development of management tools used for decision making, risk management demonstrates trends to be a new tool with high efficiency. This trend is accentuated by the fact that risk management is being incorporated into the new revision of quality management standard ISO 9001, estimated conclusion in November 2015. The identification, evaluation and treatment of risks are present in eleven items of its ten requirements at new revision. From the conclusion of the review, all organizations certified by that standard should make the necessary changes in their systems to meet the new requirements. This proposal will provide anticipate the changes that will occur in the management system of IPEN in accordance with this new revision. With the character of a pilot program to implement the organizational culture change in relationship to new concepts related to risks and implementation of risk management all other system processes that will be affected by the new revision of this standard. The methodology used for this paper is supported by the standards ABNT NBR ISO 31000. (author)

  8. Proposal for implementation risk management according ABNT NBR ISO 31000 standard applied to internal audit process of Integrated Management System of IPEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scapin Junior, Wilson S.; Salvetti, Tereza C.; Longo, Guilherme C., E-mail: wsscapin@ipen.br, E-mail: salvetti@ipen.br, E-mail: glongo@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The paper objective is to establish a risk management methodology applied to internal audits processes of IPEN Integrated Management System (IMS). In continuous seeking of updating methodologies to assist effective management based on the constant changes in the organizational world, and the development of management tools used for decision making, risk management demonstrates trends to be a new tool with high efficiency. This trend is accentuated by the fact that risk management is being incorporated into the new revision of quality management standard ISO 9001, estimated conclusion in November 2015. The identification, evaluation and treatment of risks are present in eleven items of its ten requirements at new revision. From the conclusion of the review, all organizations certified by that standard should make the necessary changes in their systems to meet the new requirements. This proposal will provide anticipate the changes that will occur in the management system of IPEN in accordance with this new revision. With the character of a pilot program to implement the organizational culture change in relationship to new concepts related to risks and implementation of risk management all other system processes that will be affected by the new revision of this standard. The methodology used for this paper is supported by the standards ABNT NBR ISO 31000. (author)

  9. The IDEAL (Integrated Design and Engineering Analysis Languages) modeling methodology: Capabilities and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Ken H.; Bachert, Robert F.

    1987-01-01

    The IDEAL (Integrated Design and Engineering Analysis Languages) modeling methodology has been formulated and applied over a five-year period. It has proven to be a unique, integrated approach utilizing a top-down, structured technique to define and document the system of interest; a knowledge engineering technique to collect and organize system descriptive information; a rapid prototyping technique to perform preliminary system performance analysis; and a sophisticated simulation technique to perform in-depth system performance analysis.

  10. Fire risk analysis for nuclear power plants: Methodological developments and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, M.; Apostolakis, G.; Siv, N.O.

    1985-01-01

    A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant

  11. A solar reserve methodology for renewable energy integration studies based on sub-hourly variability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez, Eduardo; Brinkman, Gregory; Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lew, Debra

    2012-07-01

    Increasing penetration of wind and solar energy are raising concerns among electric system operators because of the variability and uncertainty associated with the power sources. Previous work focused on the quantification of reserves for systems with wind power. This paper presents a new methodology that allows the determination of necessary reserves for high penetrations of photovoltaic power and compares it to the wind-based methodology. The solar reserve methodology was applied to Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study. A summary of the results is included. (orig.)

  12. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  13. Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

    integration. We also calculate the welfare costs of imperfect capital market integration and risk sharing and find that these costs vary a lot over time. Finally, we show that consumption risk sharing is higher during times of crises, i.e. at times when marginal utility is high and risk sharing is most......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...... capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust is to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatilities. Hence, financial integration seems to drive consumption risk sharing whereas we find no evidence that risk sharing forecasts market...

  14. Risk management of onsite transportation of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Field, J.G.

    1992-10-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site has recently undergone a significant change in its mission. The focus of site-wide operations has been shifted from production to environmental restoration. As a result, there is a significant increase in quantities of the radioactive wastes and other hazardous materials to be packaged and transported onsite. In response to the elevated transportation activities, the operations and engineering contractor for the Hanford Site, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to further enhance the safe operations of the onsite packaging and transportation activities involving radioactive and other hazardous materials. This paper summarizes Westinghouse Hanford's proposed risk assessment and risk management methodology for onsite transportation of hazardous materials. The proposed Westinghouse Hanford risk assessment and management methodology for onsite packaging and transportation has three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization process. The purposes are to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable, and to further reduce the overall risk for current and future onsite transportation activities

  15. Methodology for Selecting Best Management Practices Integrating Multiple Stakeholders and Criteria. Part 1: Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Carvallo Aceves

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs could help re-establish the natural hydrological cycle of watersheds after urbanization, with each BMP presenting a different performance across a range of criteria (flood prevention, pollutant removal, etc.. Additionally, conflicting views from the relevant stakeholders may arise, resulting in a complex selection process. This paper proposes a methodology for BMP selection based on the application of multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA methods, integrating multiple stakeholder priorities and BMP combinations. First, in the problem definition, the MCDA methods, relevant criteria and design guidelines are selected. Next, information from the preliminary analysis of the watershed is used to obtain a list of relevant BMPs. The third step comprises the watershed modeling and analysis of the BMP alternatives to obtain performance values across purely objective criteria. Afterwards, a stakeholder analysis based on survey applications is carried out to obtain social performance values and criteria priorities. Then, the MCDA methods are applied to obtain the final BMP rankings. The last step considers the sensitivity analysis and rank comparisons in order to draw the final conclusions and recommendations. Future improvements to the methodology could explore inclusion of multiple objective analysis, and alternative means for obtaining social performance values.

  16. Multicriteria decision methodology for selecting technical alternatives in the Mixed Waste Integrated Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Berry, J.B.

    1993-11-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Mixed Waste Integrated Program (MWIP) has as one of its tasks the identification of a decision methodology and key decision criteria for the selection methodology. The aim of a multicriteria analysis is to provide an instrument for a systematic evaluation of distinct alternative projects. Determination of this methodology will clarify (1) the factors used to evaluate these alternatives, (2) the evaluator's view of the importance of the factors, and (3) the relative value of each alternative. The selected methodology must consider the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) decision-making criteria for application to the analysis technology subsystems developed by the DOE Office of Technology Development. This report contains a compilation of several decision methodologies developed in various national laboratories, institutions, and universities. The purpose of these methodologies may vary, but the core of the decision attributes are very similar. Six approaches were briefly analyzed; from these six, in addition to recommendations made by the MWIP technical support group leaders and CERCLA, the final decision methodology was extracted. Slight variations are observed in the many methodologies developed by different groups, but most of the analyzed methodologies address similar aspects for the most part. These common aspects were the core of the methodology suggested in this report for use within MWIP for the selection of technologies. The set of criteria compiled and developed for this report have been grouped in five categories: (1) process effectiveness, (2) developmental status, (3) life-cycle cost, (4) implementability, and (5) regulatory compliance

  17. Methodology for optimization of process integration schemes in a biorefinery under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >González-Cortés, Meilyn; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Martínez-Martínez, Yenisleidys; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Albernas-Carvajal, Yailet; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Pedraza-Garciga, Julio; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Morales-Zamora, Marlen

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainty has a great impact in the investment decisions, operability of the plants and in the feasibility of integration opportunities in the chemical processes. This paper, presents the steps to consider the optimization of process investment in the processes integration under conditions of uncertainty. It is shown the potentialities of the biomass cane of sugar for the integration with several plants in a biorefinery scheme for the obtaining chemical products, thermal and electric energy. Among the factories with potentialities for this integration are the pulp and paper and sugar factories and other derivative processes. Theses factories have common resources and also have a variety of products that can be exchange between them so certain products generated in a one of them can be raw matter in another plant. The methodology developed guide to obtaining of feasible investment projects under uncertainty. As objective function was considered the maximization of net profitable value in different scenarios that are generated from the integration scheme. (author)

  18. Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

    2014-02-01

    IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

  19. Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de.

    1984-01-01

    This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

  20. An integrated methodology for process improvement and delivery system visualization at a multidisciplinary cancer center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singprasong, Rachanee; Eldabi, Tillal

    2013-01-01

    Multidisciplinary cancer centers require an integrated, collaborative, and stream-lined workflow in order to provide high quality of patient care. Due to the complex nature of cancer care and continuing changes to treatment techniques and technologies, it is a constant struggle for centers to obtain a systemic and holistic view of treatment workflow for improving the delivery systems. Project management techniques, Responsibility matrix and a swim-lane activity diagram representing sequence of activities can be combined for data collection, presentation, and evaluation of the patient care. This paper presents this integrated methodology using multidisciplinary meetings and walking the route approach for data collection, integrated responsibility matrix and swim-lane activity diagram with activity time for data representation and 5-why and gap analysis approach for data analysis. This enables collection of right detail of information in a shorter time frame by identifying process flaws and deficiencies while being independent of the nature of the patient's disease or treatment techniques. A case study of a multidisciplinary regional cancer centre is used to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed methodology and demonstrates that the methodology is simple to understand, allowing for minimal training of staff and rapid implementation. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  1. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  2. Study of methodology for low power/shutdown fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Zhen; Li Zhaohua; Li Lin; Song Lei

    2014-01-01

    As a risk assessment technology based on probability, the fire PSA is accepted abroad by nuclear industry in its application in the risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Based on the industry experience, the fire-induced impact on the plant safety during low power and shutdown operation cannot be neglected, therefore fire PSA can be used to assess the corresponding fire risk. However, there is no corresponding domestic guidance/standard as well as accepted analysis methodology up to date. Through investigating the latest evolvement on fire PSA during low power and shutdown operation, and integrating its characteristic with the corresponding engineering experience, an engineering methodology to evaluate the fire risk during low power and shutdown operation for nuclear power plant is established in this paper. In addition, an analysis demonstration as an example is given. (authors)

  3. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  4. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  6. Appreciation of environmental risks analysis methodologies in the offshore well drilling activities; Analise de metodologias na avaliacao de riscos ambientais relacionados as atividades de perfuracao de pocos maritimos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zampolli, Daniella M. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Morooka, Celso K. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo

    2004-07-01

    Nowadays, the projects of products and processes are supposed to integrate environmental risks criteria, in addition to their inherent operation impacts. Industrial activities, in general, generate risks to the environment, and, in case of incidents occurrence, many of the possible consequences can be translated into serious impacts. The Risk Analysis is destined to act as a decision tool in the environmental area, and therefore, the use of one of these during the project phase of an enterprise becomes important, aiming the guarantee of the system reliability. The present article has the purpose of analyzing methodologies that are being employed for the environmental risk analysis, as well as usual procedures applied in the oil industry, specially for the offshore wells drilling, evaluating and discussing their peculiarities and possible improvement. It was intended to obtain a general overview of risk analysis methodologies, with the objective of verifying the existence of some characteristics that would positively contribute for the knowledge of the inherent risks in the activities of petroleum installations, where this kind of learning is something extremely technically necessary and legally mandatory. (author)

  7. Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

  8. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  9. Quantification of the detriment and comparison of health risks. Methodological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.

    1982-01-01

    Some of the methodological problems involved in the quantitative estimate of the health detriment of different energy sources and in risk comparison are described. First, the question of determining the detriment is discussed from the point of view of the distortions introduced in the quantification when dealing with risks for which the amount of information available varies widely. The main criteria applied to classifying types of detriment are then recalled. Finally, the problems involved in comparisons are outlined: spatial and temporal variations in the types of detriment, operation under normal and accident conditions, and the risks to the public and workers. (author)

  10. Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

    2015-01-01

    The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation

  11. Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J., E-mail: c.bosso@neu.edu [Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs (United States); Eckelman, Matthew [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States); Isaacs, Jacqueline A. [Northeastern University, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (United States); Pourzahedi, Leila [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States)

    2015-08-15

    The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.

  12. An integrated impact assessment and weighting methodology: evaluation of the environmental consequences of computer display technology substitution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoying; Schoenung, Julie M

    2007-04-01

    Computer display technology is currently in a state of transition, as the traditional technology of cathode ray tubes is being replaced by liquid crystal display flat-panel technology. Technology substitution and process innovation require the evaluation of the trade-offs among environmental impact, cost, and engineering performance attributes. General impact assessment methodologies, decision analysis and management tools, and optimization methods commonly used in engineering cannot efficiently address the issues needed for such evaluation. The conventional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) process often generates results that can be subject to multiple interpretations, although the advantages of the LCA concept and framework obtain wide recognition. In the present work, the LCA concept is integrated with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a popular industrial quality management tool, which is used as the framework for the development of our integrated model. The problem of weighting is addressed by using pairwise comparison of stakeholder preferences. Thus, this paper presents a new integrated analytical approach, Integrated Industrial Ecology Function Deployment (I2-EFD), to assess the environmental behavior of alternative technologies in correlation with their performance and economic characteristics. Computer display technology is used as the case study to further develop our methodology through the modification and integration of various quality management tools (e.g., process mapping, prioritization matrix) and statistical methods (e.g., multi-attribute analysis, cluster analysis). Life cycle thinking provides the foundation for our methodology, as we utilize a published LCA report, which stopped at the characterization step, as our starting point. Further, we evaluate the validity and feasibility of our methodology by considering uncertainty and conducting sensitivity analysis.

  13. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  14. Integrated crop protection as a system approach

    OpenAIRE

    Haan, de, J.J.; Wijnands, F.G.; Sukkel, W.

    2005-01-01

    New farming systems in vegetable production are required as demands for high quality products that do not pollute the environment are rising, and production risks are large and incomes low. The methodology of prototyping new systems is described, especially the themes, parameters and target values connected to integrated crop protection. The role of integrated crop protection in prototyping new systems is discussed. The results of twenty years working with this prototyping methodology are pre...

  15. Integrated vehicle-based safety systems light-vehicle field operational test, methodology and results report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    "This document presents the methodology and results from the light-vehicle field operational test conducted as part of the Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems program. These findings are the result of analyses performed by the University of Michi...

  16. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  17. Reducing hospital-acquired pressure ulcers using bundle methodology in pediatric and neonatal patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation therapy: An integrative review and call to action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, Suzanne E; Mastro, Kari A; Preuster, Christa; Dardashti, Navid; McGill, Sandra; Madelon, Myrlene; Johnson, Donna

    2017-10-01

    This review focuses on identifying (1) evidence of the effectiveness of care bundle methodology to reduce hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs) in pediatric and neonatal patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy and (2) barriers to implementing HAPU care bundles in this at-risk population. An integrative review was conducted and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A search of the scientific literature was performed. Studies included were published between January 2011 and February 2016. A total of seven articles met inclusion criteria. Data were extracted from each published article and analyzed to identify common themes, specifically bundle methodology and barriers to implementing HAPU bundles, in this population. There is limited research on effectiveness of care bundle methodology in reducing HAPUs in children, and no research specific to its effectiveness in pediatric or neonatal ECMO patients. No research was identified studying barriers to implementation of HAPU care bundles in this population. Nurses are well poised to test innovative strategies to prevent HAPUs. Nurses should consider implementing and testing bundle methodology to reduce HAPU in this at-risk population, and conduct research to identify any barriers to implementing this strategy. There is literature to support the use of nurses as unit-based skin care champions to facilitate teamwork and reliable use of the bundle, both critical components to the success of bundle methodology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR PRODUCT PLANNING USING MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarun Soota

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Integrated approach to multi-criteria decision problems is proposed using quality function deployment and analytical network process. The objective of the work is to rationalize and improve the method of analyzing and interpreting customer needs and technical requirements. The methodology is used to determine, prioritize engineering requirements based on customer needs for development of best product. Framework allows decision maker to decompose a complex problem in a hierarchical structure to show relationship between objective and criteria. Multi-criteria decision modeling is used for extending the hierarchy process to both dependence and feedback. A case study on bikes is presented for the proposed model.

  19. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  20. Comparison of the DOE and the EPA risk assessment methodologies and default parameters for the air exposure pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Z.; Eckart, R.

    1993-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) each publish radiological health effects risk assessment methodologies. Those methodologies are in the form of computer program models or extensive documentation. This research paper compares the significant differences between the DOE and EPA methodologies and default parameters for the important air exposure pathway. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the fundamental differences in methodology and parameter values between the DOE and the EPA. This study reviewed the parameter values and default values that are utilized in the air exposure pathway and revealed the significant differences in risk assessment results when default values are used in the analysis of an actual site. The study details the sources and the magnitude of the parameter departures between the DOE and the EPA methodologies and their impact on dose or risk

  1. Legal basis for risk analysis methodology while ensuring food safety in the Eurasian Economic union and the Republic of Belarus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Fedorenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Health risk analysis methodology is an internationally recognized tool for ensuring food safety. Three main elements of risk analysis are risk assessment, risk management and risk communication to inform the interested parties on the risk, are legislated and implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Republic of Belarus. There is a corresponding organizational and functional framework for the application of risk analysis methodology as in the justification of production safety indicators and the implementation of public health surveillance. Common methodological approaches and criteria for evaluating public health risk are determined, which are used in the development and application of food safety requirements. Risk assessment can be used in justifying the indicators of safety (contaminants, food additives, and evaluating the effectiveness of programs on enrichment of food with micronutrients.

  2. Water level management of lakes connected to regulated rivers: An integrated modeling and analytical methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Tengfei; Mao, Jingqiao; Pan, Shunqi; Dai, Lingquan; Zhang, Peipei; Xu, Diandian; Dai, Huichao

    2018-07-01

    Reservoir operations significantly alter the hydrological regime of the downstream river and river-connected lake, which has far-reaching impacts on the lake ecosystem. To facilitate the management of lakes connected to regulated rivers, the following information must be provided: (1) the response of lake water levels to reservoir operation schedules in the near future and (2) the importance of different rivers in terms of affecting the water levels in different lake regions of interest. We develop an integrated modeling and analytical methodology for the water level management of such lakes. The data-driven method is used to model the lake level as it has the potential of producing quick and accurate predictions. A new genetic algorithm-based synchronized search is proposed to optimize input variable time lags and data-driven model parameters simultaneously. The methodology also involves the orthogonal design and range analysis for extracting the influence of an individual river from that of all the rivers. The integrated methodology is applied to the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake. The results show that: (1) the antecedent lake levels are of crucial importance for the current lake level prediction; (2) the selected river discharge time lags reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the rivers' impacts on lake level changes; (3) the predicted lake levels are in very good agreement with the observed data (RMSE ≤ 0.091 m; R2 ≥ 0.9986). This study demonstrates the practical potential of the integrated methodology, which can provide both the lake level responses to future dam releases and the relative contributions of different rivers to lake level changes.

  3. QFD: a methodological tool for integration of ergonomics at the design stage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Jacques

    2005-03-01

    As a marked increase in the number of musculoskeletal disorders was noted in many industrialized countries and more specifically in companies that require the use of hand tools, the French National Research and Safety Institute launched in 1999 a research program on the topic of integrating ergonomics into hand tool design. After a brief review of the problems of integrating ergonomics at the design stage, the paper shows how the "Quality Function Deployment" method has been applied to the design of a boning knife and it highlights the difficulties encountered. Then, it demonstrates how this method can be a methodological tool geared to greater ergonomics consideration in product design.

  4. Conservatism in methodologies for moderator subcooling sufficiency for fuel channel integrity upon pressure tube and calandria tube contact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, L., E-mail: LSun@nbpower.com [Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, NB, (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    During a postulated large LOCA event in CANDU reactors, the pressure tube may balloon to contact with its surrounding calandria tube to transfer heat to the moderator. To confirm the integrity of the fuel channel in this case, many experiments have been performed in the last three decades. Based on the extant database of the pressure tube/calandria tube (PT/CT) contact, an analytical methodology was developed by Canadian Nuclear Industry to determine the sufficiency of moderator subcooling for fuel channel integrity. At the same time a semi-empirical methodology with an idea of Equivalent Moderator Subcooling (EMS) was also developed to judge the sufficiency of the moderator. In this work, some discussions were made over the two methodologies on their conservatism and it is demonstrated that the analytical approach is over conservative comparing with the EMS methodology. By using the EMS methodology, it is demonstrated that applying glass-peened calandria tubes, the requirement to moderator subcooling can be reduced by 10{sup o}C from that for smooth calandria tubes. (author)

  5. The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

  6. Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

  7. A methodology for overall consequence modeling in chemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment in chemical process industry is a very important issue for safeguarding human and the ecosystem from damages caused to them. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. However, the commonly used consequence estimation methods involve time-consuming complex mathematical models and simple assimilation of losses without considering all the consequence factors. This lead to the deterioration of quality of estimated risk value. So, the consequence modeling has to be performed in detail considering all major losses with optimal time to improve the decisive value of risk. The losses can be broadly categorized into production loss, assets loss, human health and safety loss, and environment loss. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed to assess the overall consequence considering all the important components of major losses. Secondly, a methodology is developed for the calculation of all the major losses, which are normalized to yield the overall consequence. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study plant involving benzene extraction. The case study result using the proposed consequence assessment scheme is compared with that from the existing methodologies.

  8. Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Chasdi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems perspective. 

  9. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

    2016-09-01

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  10. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  11. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  12. Methodology for national risk analysis and prioritization of toxic industrial chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taxell, Piia; Engström, Kerstin; Tuovila, Juha; Söderström, Martin; Kiljunen, Harri; Vanninen, Paula; Santonen, Tiina

    2013-01-01

    The identification of chemicals that pose the greatest threat to human health from incidental releases is a cornerstone in public health preparedness for chemical threats. The present study developed and applied a methodology for the risk analysis and prioritization of industrial chemicals to identify the most significant chemicals that pose a threat to public health in Finland. The prioritization criteria included acute and chronic health hazards, physicochemical and environmental hazards, national production and use quantities, the physicochemical properties of the substances, and the history of substance-related incidents. The presented methodology enabled a systematic review and prioritization of industrial chemicals for the purpose of national public health preparedness for chemical incidents.

  13. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  14. Methodology, Algorithms, and Emerging Tool for Automated Design of Intelligent Integrated Multi-Sensor Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas König

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel sensing elements, computing nodes, wireless communication and integration technology provides unprecedented possibilities for the design and application of intelligent systems. Each new application system must be designed from scratch, employing sophisticated methods ranging from conventional signal processing to computational intelligence. Currently, a significant part of this overall algorithmic chain of the computational system model still has to be assembled manually by experienced designers in a time and labor consuming process. In this research work, this challenge is picked up and a methodology and algorithms for automated design of intelligent integrated and resource-aware multi-sensor systems employing multi-objective evolutionary computation are introduced. The proposed methodology tackles the challenge of rapid-prototyping of such systems under realization constraints and, additionally, includes features of system instance specific self-correction for sustained operation of a large volume and in a dynamically changing environment. The extension of these concepts to the reconfigurable hardware platform renders so called self-x sensor systems, which stands, e.g., for self-monitoring, -calibrating, -trimming, and -repairing/-healing systems. Selected experimental results prove the applicability and effectiveness of our proposed methodology and emerging tool. By our approach, competitive results were achieved with regard to classification accuracy, flexibility, and design speed under additional design constraints.

  15. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  16. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

    2017-05-01

    Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  19. Managing Key Risks in Post-Merger IS Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Mar; Mathiassen, L

    2014-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...

  20. Gas migration from closed coal mines to the surface. Risk assessment methodology and prevention means

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pokryszka, Z.; Tauziede, Ch.; Lagny, C.; Guise, Y.; Gobillot, R.; Planchenault, J.M.; Lagarde, R.

    2005-01-01

    French law as regards renunciation to mining concessions calls for the mining operator to first undertake analyses of the risks represented by their underground mining works. The problem of gas migration to the surface is especially significant in the context of coal mines. This is because mine gas can migrate to the earth's surface, then present significant risks: explosion, suffocation or gas poisoning risks. As part of the scheduled closure of all coal mining operations in France, INERIS has drawn up, at the request of national mining operator Charbonnages de France, a general methodology for assessing the risk linked to gas in the context of closed coal mines. This article presents the principles of this methodology. An application example based on a true case study is then described. This is completed by a presentation of the preventive and monitoring resources recommended and usually applied in order to manage the risk linked to gaseous emissions. (authors)

  1. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  2. Construction schedule delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Mufazzal Hossen

    2015-04-01

    The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  3. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  4. Methodology of structural integrity assesment of CANDU-6 NPP fuel channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radu, Vasile

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the methodology of assessing the structural integrity in the CANDU-6 fuel channels making use of alternative methods of evaluation. An evaluation of the structural integrity of a CANDU-6 pressure tube made of Zr-2,5%Nb presenting both sharp and blunted defects is done. These analyses are made in compliance with the Canadian guide 'Pressure Tubes Fitness-for-service', and other two Recognizing procedures internationally adopted: the British procedure R6/Rev.4 and the American procedure API 579. Previously, the data base containing the data on materials property as well as the heat and dynamical loads in normal operation in CANDU-6 pressure tubes was established. Obtaining complete diagrams for structural integrity of pressure tubes with sharp and blunted defects in conditions of normal operation and long-term irradiation is the next step of the methodology to be developed. Modelling sharp and blunted defects on the inner side of pressure tubes, which can occur in normal reactor operating conditions is achieved by means of capabilities of pre-processing of two finite element analysis codes namely FEA-Crack and FEA-Flaw. The second part of the work deals with the analyses by finite element method of the fracture mechanics by means of the FEA-Crack code and with the evaluation of sharp and blunted defects by FAD diagrams in compliance with the British procedure R6/Rev.4. For typical models of blunted defects and thermo-mechanical loads specific to normal operation finite element analyses by FEA-Flaw codes were performed. Then FAD-iDHC diagrams were constructed to evaluate the initiation of the slow cracking under hydrogen/deuterium absorption, the known phenomenon of delayed hydride cracking (DHC)

  5. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  6. An Implentation Methodology for Integrated Resource Management in Urban Water Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, G.; Thurm, B.; Klein, D. R.; Öberg, G.

    2014-12-01

    Urban water management requires innovative and integrative approaches to improve sustainability in cities keeping in touch with science progress. Integrated Resource Management (IRM) is one of these strategies and has been developed to integrate various natural and human resources. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that it is challenging to move from vision to implementation. The aim of this paper is to identify strengths and weaknesses of IRM and analyze if the approach might facilitate implementation of sustainability objectives in the water management field. A literature review was performed on peer-reviewed papers that were identified through Google Scholar search for the term 'Integrated Resource Management'. It was found that IRM has been used in a number of contexts such as urban planning, forestry, and management of waste and livestock. Significant implementation challenges are highlighted in the literature. Based on the lessons learned in many different fields, from forestry to communication sciences, important characteristics of IRM approach were found such as the need for adequate governance and strong leaderships, stakeholder's involvement, the learning process and the critical need of appropriate evaluation criteria. We conclude developing an implementation methodology and presenting several recommendations to implement IRM in urban management. While Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) is recognized as a fruitful approach to achieve sustainable water management, this study suggests that a shift toward Integrated Resource Management (IRM) can be beneficial as it is designed to facilitate consideration of the interrelationships between various natural and human resources.

  7. A methodology for estimating potential doses and risks from recycling U.S. Department of Energy radioactive scrap metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKinney, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering writing regulations for the controlled use of materials originating from radioactively contaminated zones which may be recyclable. These materials include metals, such as steel (carbon and stainless), nickel, copper, aluminum and lead, from the decommissioning of federal, and non-federal facilities. To develop criteria for the release of such materials, a risk analysis of all potential exposure pathways should be conducted. These pathways include direct exposure to the recycled material by the public and workers, both individual and collective, as well as numerous other potential exposure pathways in the life of the material. EPA has developed a risk assessment methodology for estimating doses and risks associated with recycling radioactive scrap metals. This methodology was applied to metal belonging to the U.S. Department of Energy. This paper will discuss the draft EPA risk assessment methodology as a tool for estimating doses and risks from recycling. (author)

  8. Vedic division methodology for high-speed very large scale integration applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabir Saha

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Transistor level implementation of division methodology using ancient Vedic mathematics is reported in this Letter. The potentiality of the ‘Dhvajanka (on top of the flag’ formula was adopted from Vedic mathematics to implement such type of divider for practical very large scale integration applications. The division methodology was implemented through half of the divisor bit instead of the actual divisor, subtraction and little multiplication. Propagation delay and dynamic power consumption of divider circuitry were minimised significantly by stage reduction through Vedic division methodology. The functionality of the division algorithm was checked and performance parameters like propagation delay and dynamic power consumption were calculated through spice spectre with 90 nm complementary metal oxide semiconductor technology. The propagation delay of the resulted (32 ÷ 16 bit divider circuitry was only ∼300 ns and consumed ∼32.5 mW power for a layout area of 17.39 mm^2. Combination of Boolean arithmetic along with ancient Vedic mathematics, substantial amount of iterations were reduced resulted as ∼47, ∼38, 34% reduction in delay and ∼34, ∼21, ∼18% reduction in power were investigated compared with the mostly used (e.g. digit-recurrence, Newton–Raphson, Goldschmidt architectures.

  9. Methodology for the optimal design of an integrated first and second generation ethanol production plant combined with power cogeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechara, Rami; Gomez, Adrien; Saint-Antonin, Valérie; Schweitzer, Jean-Marc; Maréchal, François

    2016-08-01

    The application of methodologies for the optimal design of integrated processes has seen increased interest in literature. This article builds on previous works and applies a systematic methodology to an integrated first and second generation ethanol production plant with power cogeneration. The methodology breaks into process simulation, heat integration, thermo-economic evaluation, exergy efficiency vs. capital costs, multi-variable, evolutionary optimization, and process selection via profitability maximization. Optimization generated Pareto solutions with exergy efficiency ranging between 39.2% and 44.4% and capital costs from 210M$ to 390M$. The Net Present Value was positive for only two scenarios and for low efficiency, low hydrolysis points. The minimum cellulosic ethanol selling price was sought to obtain a maximum NPV of zero for high efficiency, high hydrolysis alternatives. The obtained optimal configuration presented maximum exergy efficiency, hydrolyzed bagasse fraction, capital costs and ethanol production rate, and minimum cooling water consumption and power production rate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  11. Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

    2006-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

  12. [Problems of world outlook and methodology of science integration in biological studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khododova, Iu D

    1981-01-01

    Problems of worldoutlook and methodology of the natural-science knowledge are considered basing on the analysis of tendencies in the development of the membrane theory of cell processes and the use of principles of biological membrane functioning when solving some scientific and applied problems pertaining to different branches of chemistry and biology. The notion scientific knowledge integration is defined as interpenetration of approaches, methods and ideas of different branches of knowledge and enrichment on this basis of their content resulting in knowledge augmentation in each field taken separately. These processes are accompanied by appearance of new branches of knowledge - sciences "on junction" and their subsequent differentiations. The analysis of some gnoseological situations shows that integration of sciences contributes to coordination and some agreement of thinking styles of different specialists, puts forward keen personality of a scientist demanding, in particular, his high professional mobility. Problems of scientific activity organization are considered, which involve social sciences into the integration processes. The role of philosophy in the integration processes is emphasized.

  13. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...

  14. Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

    2016-01-01

    capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...

  15. MARA - methodology to analyze environmental risks; MARA - elaboracao de metodologia para analise dos riscos ambientais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendes, Renato F; Yogui, Regiane [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Minniti, Vivienne [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Analise de Riscos; Lopes, Carlos F [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Operacoes de Emergencia; Milaneli, Joao [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Ubatuba, SP (Brazil). Agencia Ambiental de Ubatuba; Torres, Carlos [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transportes, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude; Rodrigues, Gabriela; Mariz, Eduardo [Consultoria Paulista, SP (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    In the oil industry, the environmental impact assessment of an accident is both multi and interdisciplinary and goes through several approaches and depths. Due to the enormous complexity of the environmental analyses issues, mainly for being a science in development and not technological consensus, a macro methodology is presented for the purpose of identify areas that can be impacted by pipeline leakages and recommend improvements are applicable working as a table top response plan. The methodology of the Environmental Risk Mapping-MARA for pipelines rows, describes its concept and justifies the adoption of the environmental mapping during Risk Analyses studies, for PETROBRAS/TRANSPETRO new and existing pipelines. The development of this methodology is justified by the fact that it is a practical tool for identification, analysis and categorization of the more vulnerable environmental elements along a pipeline row and vicinities, during simulated occurrence of accidental spills of hydrocarbons in the environment. This methodology is a tool that allows Environmental Agencies and PETROBRAS a better way to manage in advance the Company emergencies. (author)

  16. A Methodology to Integrate Security and Cost-effectiveness in ATM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Matarese

    2014-01-01

    prioritizing the threats and proposing cost-effective countermeasures for the weaknesses found. ATM security is concerned with securing ATM assets in order to prevent threats and limit their effects on the overall aviation network. This effect limitation can be achieved by removing the vulnerability from the system and/or increasing the tolerance in case of component failures due to attacks. The security risk assessment methodology proposed is based on what is currently being done by the industry (the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO and the International Standard Organization (ISO, etc..

  17. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IIRC (2013b: 3), integrated thinking takes into account the connectivity and ... historical information and provides investors and other stakeholders with .... in the disclosure of risks and opportunities by using a sample of the top 100 JSE-.

  19. A MAINTENANCE STRATEGY MODEL FOR STATIC EQUIPMENT USING INSPECTION METHODOLOGIES AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Visser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mechanical equipment used on process plants can be categorised into two main types, namely static and rotating equipment. A brief survey at a number of chemical process plants indicated that a number of maintenance strategies exist and are used for rotating equipment. However, some of these strategies are not directly applicable to static equipment, although the risk-based inspection (RBI methodology has been developed for pressure vessels. A generalised risk-based maintenance strategy for all types of static equipment does not currently exist. This paper describes the development of an optimised model of inspection methodologies, maintenance strategies, and risk management principles that are generically applicable for static equipment. It enables maintenance managers and engineers to select an applicable maintenance strategy and inspection methodology, based on the operational and business risks posed by the individual pieces of equipment.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Meganiese toerusting wat op prosesaanlegte gebruik word kan in twee kategorieë verdeel word, naamlik statiese en roterende toerusting. 'n Bondige ondersoek by 'n aantal chemiese prosesaanlegte het aangedui dat 'n aantal strategieë vir instandhouding van roterende toerusting gebruik word, terwyl die risikogebaseerde inspeksiemetodologie wel vir drukvate gebruik word. 'n Algemene risikogebaseerde instandhoudingstrategie vir alle tipes statiese toerusting is egter nie tans beskikbaar nie. Hierdie artikel beskryf die ontwikkeling van 'n geoptimeerde model van inspeksiemetodologieë, instandhoudingstrategieë, en risikobestuursbeginsels wat algemeen gebruik kan word vir statiese toerusting. Dit stel die instandhouding-bestuurders en -ingenieurs in staat om 'n instandhoudingstrategie en inspeksie-metodologie te kies, gebaseer op die operasionele en besigheidsrisiko's van die individuele toerusting.

  20. Diagnosis and proposal for an integrated risk management en el Valle de Aburra: red risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aristizabal, Edier; Vargas, Richard

    2008-01-01

    From the analysis of the organizational situation of different institutions of the Aburra Valley oriented to reduce disasters and emergencies of natural and anthropological origin, a system for the prevention, relief and recovery, Area metropolitana del Valle de Aburra, environmental authority and planning institution, has made to the region a pro pose which try to integrate all governmental and private organizations through an integral risk management, denominated: The Regional Risk Management Network in the Aburra Valley, Risk Network. Risk Network is an open organizational system of inter institutional character to direct and co-ordinate policies and actions of analysis and risk reduction, as well as the preparation and execution of the response and recovery of disaster and emergencies. in the Aburra Valley. Two are the strategic instruments of the Network: The Risk Management Regional Plan in the Aburra Valley, and the Integrated Information System which was designed to support the different management processes of the Network.

  1. MODEL - INTEGRAL METHODOLOGY FOR SUCCESSFUL DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING OF TQM SYSTEM IN MACEDONIAN COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeta Mitreva

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is linked with the valorization of the meaning and the perspectives of Total Quality Management (TQM system design and implementation within the domestic companies and creating a model-methodology for improved performance, efficiency and effectiveness. The research is designed as an attempt to depict the existing condition in the Macedonian companies regarding quality system design and implementation, analysed through 4 polls in the "house of quality" whose top is the ultimate management, and as its bases measurement, evaluation, analyzing and comparison of the quality are used. This "house" is being held by 4 subsystems e.g. internal standardization, methods and techniques for flawless work performance, education and motivation and analyses of the quality costs. The data received from the research and the proposal of the integral methodology for designing and implementing of TQM system are designed in turn to help and present useful directions to all Macedonian companies tending to become "world class" organizations. The basis in the creation of this model is the redesign of the business processes which afterword begins as a new phase of the business performance - continued improvement, rolling of Deming's Quality Circle (Plan-Do-Check-Act. The model-methodology proposed in this paper is integral and universal which means that it is applicable to all companies regardless of the business area.

  2. Tools and methodologies to support more sustainable biofuel feedstock production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragisic, Christine; Ashkenazi, Erica; Bede, Lucio; Honzák, Miroslav; Killeen, Tim; Paglia, Adriano; Semroc, Bambi; Savy, Conrad

    2011-02-01

    Increasingly, government regulations, voluntary standards, and company guidelines require that biofuel production complies with sustainability criteria. For some stakeholders, however, compliance with these criteria may seem complex, costly, or unfeasible. What existing tools, then, might facilitate compliance with a variety of biofuel-related sustainability criteria? This paper presents four existing tools and methodologies that can help stakeholders assess (and mitigate) potential risks associated with feedstock production, and can thus facilitate compliance with requirements under different requirement systems. These include the Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool (IBAT), the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) tool, the Responsible Cultivation Areas (RCA) methodology, and the related Biofuels + Forest Carbon (Biofuel + FC) methodology.

  3. Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Regan, Patrick; Moody, Jim; Loetman, Jan; Sandstedt, Johan

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

  4. Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Regan, Patrick (Electric Power Research Inst., Knoxville, TN (United States)); Moody, Jim (JHM Consulting, Strafford (United States)); Loetman, Jan (Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB (Sweden)); Sandstedt, Johan (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

  5. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  6. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  7. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  8. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  9. Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés, E-mail: andres@uhu.es

    2016-01-15

    In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

  10. Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés

    2016-01-01

    In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation

  11. Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Sajjad; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Elkamel, Ali; Du, Juan; Ydstie, Erik B.; Douglas, Peter L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Financial risk associated with over or underproduction of electricity is studied. • A two-stage stochastic model that considers parameter uncertainties is developed. • The model was applied to a real case to meet projected electricity demand of a fleet of generating stations. • Incorporation of financial risk resulted in an increase in electricity cost. • The selection of technologies was the same as that obtained from a deterministic model. - Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to include financial risk management in the framework of two-stage stochastic programming for energy planning under uncertainties in demand and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters that have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. This was applied to a case study focusing on planning the capacity supply to meet the projected electricity demand for the fleet of electricity generation stations owned and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The objective of the proposed mathematical model is to minimize cost subject to environmental constraints. The case study is investigated by considering only existing technologies and also by considering the integration of new technologies that help achieve stricter carbon reduction requirements

  12. An integrated approach of composting methodologies for solid waste management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kumaresan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Organic fraction of solid waste, which upon degradation produces foul smell and generates pathogens, if not properly managed. Composting is not a method of waste disposal but it is a method of waste recycling and used for agricultural purposes. An integrated approach of composting methodology was tested for municipal solid waste management. Solid waste first was composted and after 22 days, was further processed by vermicomposting. Samples were routinely taken for analysis of carbon, nitrogen, moisture content, pH and temperature to determine the quality of composting. Decrease in moisture content to 32.1 %, relative decrease in carbon and nitrogen content were also observed. Among the different types of treatment, municipal solid waste + activated sludge integration showed promising results, followed by vermicomposting municipal solid waste + activated sludge combination, compared to the combinations of dried activated sludge, municipal solid waste + activated sludge semisolid and municipal solid waste + sewage water. Thus, windrow composting followed by vermicomposting gave a better result than other methods. Thus this method would serve as a potential alternative for solid waste management.

  13. An integrated approach of composting methodologies for solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumaresan, K.; Balan, R.; Sridhar, A.; Aravind, J.; Kanmani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Organic fraction of solid waste, which upon degradation produces foul smell and generates pathogens, if not properly managed. Composting is not a method of waste disposal but it is a method of waste recycling and used for agricultural purposes. An integrated approach of composting methodology was tested for municipal solid waste management. Solid waste first was composted and after 22 days, was further processed by vermicomposting. Samples were routinely taken for analysis of carbon, nitrogen, moisture content, p H and temperature to determine the quality of composting. Decrease in moisture content to 32.1 %, relative decrease in carbon and nitrogen content were also observed. Among the different types of treatment, municipal solid waste + activated sludge integration showed promising results, followed by vermicomposting municipal solid waste + activated sludge combination, compared to the combinations of dried activated sludge, municipal solid waste + activated sludge semisolid and municipal solid waste + sewage water. Thus, windrow composting followed by vermicomposting gave a better result than other methods. Thus this method would serve as a potential alternative for solid waste management.

  14. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  15. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  16. Safety studies on Korean fusion DEMO plant using integrated safety assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Kyemin; Kang, Myoung-suk; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyoung-chan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: •The purpose of this paper is to suggest methodology that can investigate safety issues and provides a case study for Korean fusion DEMO plant. •The concepts of integrated safety assessment methodology (ISAM) that can be applied in addressing regulatory requirements and recognizing safety issues for K-DEMO were emphasized. •Phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) was proposed. It can recognize vulnerabilities of systems and identify the gaps in technical areas requiring additional researches. •This work is expected to contribute on the conceptual design of safety features for K-DEMO to design engineers and the guidance for regulatory requirements to licensers. -- Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to suggest methodology that can investigate safety issues and provides a case study for Korean fusion DEMO plant (K-DEMO) as a part of R and D program through the National Fusion Research Institute of Korea. Even though nuclear regulation and licensing framework is well setup due to the operating and design experience of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) since 1970s, the regulatory authority of South Korea has concerns on the challenge of facing new nuclear facilities including K-DEMO due to the differences in systems, materials, and inherent safety feature from conventional PWRs. Even though the follow-up of the ITER license process facilitates to deal with significant safety issues of fusion facilities, a licensee as well as a licenser should identify the gaps between ITER and DEMO in terms of safety issues. First we reviewed the methods of conducting safety analysis for unprecedented nuclear facilities such as Generation IV reactors, particularly very high temperature reactor (VHTR), which is called as integrated safety assessment methodology (ISAM). Second, the analysis for the conceptual design of K-DEMO on the basis of ISAM was conducted. The ISAM consists of five analytical tools to develop the safety requirements from licensee

  17. Safety studies on Korean fusion DEMO plant using integrated safety assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Kyemin; Kang, Myoung-suk [Kyung Hee University, Youngin-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Heo, Gyunyoung, E-mail: gheo@khu.ac.kr [Kyung Hee University, Youngin-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyoung-chan [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon-si 305-333 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: •The purpose of this paper is to suggest methodology that can investigate safety issues and provides a case study for Korean fusion DEMO plant. •The concepts of integrated safety assessment methodology (ISAM) that can be applied in addressing regulatory requirements and recognizing safety issues for K-DEMO were emphasized. •Phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) was proposed. It can recognize vulnerabilities of systems and identify the gaps in technical areas requiring additional researches. •This work is expected to contribute on the conceptual design of safety features for K-DEMO to design engineers and the guidance for regulatory requirements to licensers. -- Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to suggest methodology that can investigate safety issues and provides a case study for Korean fusion DEMO plant (K-DEMO) as a part of R and D program through the National Fusion Research Institute of Korea. Even though nuclear regulation and licensing framework is well setup due to the operating and design experience of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) since 1970s, the regulatory authority of South Korea has concerns on the challenge of facing new nuclear facilities including K-DEMO due to the differences in systems, materials, and inherent safety feature from conventional PWRs. Even though the follow-up of the ITER license process facilitates to deal with significant safety issues of fusion facilities, a licensee as well as a licenser should identify the gaps between ITER and DEMO in terms of safety issues. First we reviewed the methods of conducting safety analysis for unprecedented nuclear facilities such as Generation IV reactors, particularly very high temperature reactor (VHTR), which is called as integrated safety assessment methodology (ISAM). Second, the analysis for the conceptual design of K-DEMO on the basis of ISAM was conducted. The ISAM consists of five analytical tools to develop the safety requirements from licensee

  18. Integration of an iterative methodology for exergoeconomic improvement of thermal systems with a process simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieira, Leonardo S.; Donatelli, Joao L.; Cruz, Manuel E.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we present the development and automated implementation of an iterative methodology for exergoeconomic improvement of thermal systems integrated with a process simulator, so as to be applicable to real, complex plants. The methodology combines recent available exergoeconomic techniques with new qualitative and quantitative criteria for the following tasks: (i) identification of decision variables that affect system total cost and exergetic efficiency; (ii) hierarchical classification of components; (iii) identification of predominant terms in the component total cost; and (iv) choice of main decision variables in the iterative process. To show the strengths and potential advantages of the proposed methodology, it is here applied to the benchmark CGAM cogeneration system. The results obtained are presented and discussed in detail and are compared to those reached using a mathematical optimization procedure

  19. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

    2015-01-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  20. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  1. A Systems Engineering Methodology for Designing and Planning the Built Environment—Results from the Urban Research Laboratory Nuremberg and Their Integration in Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Geyer

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban development requires a long-term sector-integrative approach. This paper proposes a method of system analysis and partial simulation for urban structures for this purpose. It couples a discussion-based holistic approach for systems analysis and modelling of urban structures with quantitative modelling and simulation of partial scenarios that serve to examine specific questions regarding the long-term development of urban structures. In the first part, the application in the City Lab Nuremberg West, a multidisciplinary urban research laboratory, serves to develop the methodology and its illustration. The main objective is to examine the transition of the existing underperforming quarter to a sustainable and livable urban environment. Scenario-based experiments with respect to development paths determine robustness and risks of different configurations. The second part of the paper describes the transfer of the methodology to education. The approach serves to teach students in the Energy-Efficient and Sustainable Building master course program an integrative way of planning a sustainable built environment. The definition of educational objectives concerning the students’ understanding and management of systemic interdependencies of sustainability help assess the use of the method in the classroom. The aim is to provide them with the competence to develop strategies for complex situations while planning a sustainable built environment.

  2. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  3. Multicriteria renewable energy planning using an integrated fuzzy VIKOR and AHP methodology: The case of Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaya, Tolga; Kahraman, Cengiz

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is twofold: first, it is aimed at determining the best renewable energy alternative for Istanbul by using an integrated VIKOR-AHP methodology. Second, a selection among alternative energy production sites in this city is made using the same approach. In the proposed VIKOR-AHP methodology, the weights of the selection criteria are determined by pairwise comparison matrices of AHP. In energy decision making problems, the judgments of decision makers are usually vague. As it is relatively difficult for decision makers to provide exact values for the criteria, the evaluation data for the alternative energy policies should be expressed in linguistic terms. In order to model this kind of uncertainty in human preferences, fuzzy logic is applied very successfully. Thus, both classical VIKOR and classical AHP procedures are performed under fuzzy environment. The originality of the paper comes from the application of the proposed integrated VIKOR-AHP methodology to the selection of the best energy policy and production site. It is found that wind energy is the most appropriate renewable energy option and Catalca district is the best area among the alternatives for establishing wind turbines in Istanbul.

  4. Conceptual and methodological challenges to integrating SEA and cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, Jill; Noble, Bram F.

    2011-01-01

    The constraints to assessing and managing cumulative environmental effects in the context of project-based environmental assessment are well documented, and the potential benefits of a more strategic approach to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) are well argued; however, such benefits have yet to be clearly demonstrated in practice. While it is widely assumed that cumulative effects are best addressed in a strategic context, there has been little investigation as to whether CEA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are a 'good fit' - conceptually or methodologically. This paper identifies a number of conceptual and methodological challenges to the integration of CEA and SEA. Based on results of interviews with international experts and practitioners, this paper demonstrates that: definitions and conceptualizations of CEA are typically weak in practice; approaches to effects aggregation vary widely; a systems perspective lacks in both SEA and CEA; the multifarious nature of SEA complicates CEA; tiering arrangements between SEA and project-based assessment are limited to non-existing; and the relationship of SEA to regional planning remains unclear.

  5. Forward Commitment Procurement : A practical methodology that helps to manage risk in procuring innovative goods and services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whyles, G.; Meerveld, H. van; Nauta, N.J.

    2015-01-01

    The Forward Commitment Procurement (FCP) is a Public Procurement of Innovation (PPI) methodology. It was specifically designed to both provide a practical methodology for procurers to follow and to manage the perceived risk of the customer and supplier in innovation investments. The paper describes

  6. RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Milena CHOLES ARVILLA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based upon the research undertaken for the development of the doctoral thesis “Management of software projects based on object-oriented technology”. The study examines the existing risk management practices commonly used for classic software development. The goal is to integrate the elements of the traditional risk management methodologies to create a new agile risk management methodology. The thesis focuses on techniques that can be easily implemented in extreme programming (XP and SCRUM. This study is motivated by the following research questions: What are the elements of existing quality assurance tools that could meet the principles of agile development? And is it possible to use risk estimation for improving quality in agile projects? The thesis presents a synthesis of the most common risk management techniques, as well as an introduction to agile methods XP and SCRUM. The proposal integrates the concepts of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into the iterative life cycle of an agile software project. The thesis presents a metamodel which integrates the concepts of agile development methodologies: SCRUM and XP with the FMEA concepts for risk quantification. The model was partly implemented into a real development project. Partial results show the improvement in early identification of failures and allowed to reconsider the Sprint plan.

  7. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

  8. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

  9. TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fordham, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization

  10. A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kholodovsky, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to the society in terms of human lives and financial losses. As climate changes, it is important to understand how extreme weather events may change as a result. Climate and statistical models are often independently used to model those phenomena. To better assess performance of the climate models, a variety of spatial forecast verification methods have been developed. However, spatial verification metrics that are widely used in comparing mean states, in most cases, do not have an adequate theoretical justification to benchmark extreme weather events. We proposed a new integrated threshold selection methodology for spatial forecast verification of extreme events that couples existing pattern recognition indices with high threshold choices. This integrated approach has three main steps: 1) dimension reduction; 2) geometric domain mapping; and 3) thresholds clustering. We apply this approach to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS. The results are evaluated by displaying threshold distribution seasonally, monthly and annually. The method offers user the flexibility of selecting a high threshold that is linked to desired geometrical properties. The proposed high threshold methodology could either complement existing spatial verification methods, where threshold selection is arbitrary, or be directly applicable in extreme value theory.

  11. D Integrated Methodologies for the Documentation and the Virtual Reconstruction of AN Archaeological Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balletti, C.; Guerra, F.; Scocca, V.; Gottardi, C.

    2015-02-01

    Highly accurate documentation and 3D reconstructions are fundamental for analyses and further interpretations in archaeology. In the last years the integrated digital survey (ground-based survey methods and UAV photogrammetry) has confirmed its main role in the documentation and comprehension of excavation contexts, thanks to instrumental and methodological development concerning the on site data acquisition. The specific aim of the project, reported in this paper and realized by the Laboratory of Photogrammetry of the IUAV University of Venice, is to check different acquisition systems and their effectiveness test, considering each methodology individually or integrated. This research focuses on the awareness that the integration of different survey's methodologies can as a matter of fact increase the representative efficacy of the final representations; these are based on a wider and verified set of georeferenced metric data. Particularly the methods' integration allows reducing or neutralizing issues related to composite and complex objects' survey, since the most appropriate tools and techniques can be chosen considering the characteristics of each part of an archaeological site (i.e. urban structures, architectural monuments, small findings). This paper describes the experience in several sites of the municipality of Sepino (Molise, Italy), where the 3d digital acquisition of cities and structure of monuments, sometimes hard to reach, was realized using active and passive techniques (rage-based and image based methods). This acquisition was planned in order to obtain not only the basic support for interpretation analysis, but also to achieve models of the actual state of conservation of the site on which some reconstructive hypotheses can be based on. Laser scanning data were merged with Structure from Motion techniques' clouds into the same reference system, given by a topographical and GPS survey. These 3d models are not only the final results of the metric

  12. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  13. An integrated methodology to evaluate a spent nuclear fuel storage system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Jeong Hyoun

    2008-02-01

    This study introduced a methodology that can be applied for development of a dry storage system for spent nuclear fuels. It consisted of several design activities that includes development of a simplified program to analyze the amount of spent nuclear fuels from reflecting the practical situation in spent nuclear fuel management and a simplified program to evaluate the cost of 4 types of representing storage system to choose the most competitive option considering economic factor. As verification of the implementation of the reference module to practical purpose, a simplified thermal analysis code was suggested that can see fulfillment of limitation of temperature in long term storage and oxidation analysis. From the thermal related results, the reference module can accommodate full range of PHWR spent nuclear fuels and significant portion of PWR ones too. From the results, the reference storage system can be concluded that has fulfilled the important requirements in terms of long term integrity and radiological safety. Also for the purpose of solving scattered radiation along with deep penetration problems in cooling storage system, small but efficient design alternation was suggested together with its efficiency that can reduce scattered radiation by 1/3 from the original design. Along with the countermeasure for the shielding problem, in consideration of PWR spent nuclear fuels, simplified criticality analysis methodology retaining conservativeness was proposed. The results show the reference module is efficient low enrichment PWR spent nuclear fuel and even relatively high enrichment fuels too if burnup credit is taken. As conclusive remark, the methodology is simple but efficient to plan a concept design of convective cooling type of spent nuclear fuels storage. It can be also concluded that the methodology derived in this study and the reference module has feasibility in practical implementation to mitigate the current complex situation in spent fuel

  14. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration Supply Chain Integration

    CERN Document Server

    Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde

    2012-01-01

    Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management.  Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...

  15. Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2016-08-01

    This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability

  16. A methodology of the assessment of environmental and human health risks from amine emissions from post combustion CO2 capture technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korre, Anna; Manzoor, Saba; Simperler, Alexandra

    2015-04-01

    Post combustion CO2 capture (PCCC) technology in power plants using amines as solvent for CO2 capture, is one of the reduction technologies employed to combat escalating levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, amine solvents used for capturing CO2 produce negative emissions such as, nitrosamines and nitramines, which are suspected to be potent carcinogens. It is therefore essential to assess the atmospheric fate of these amine emissions in the atmosphere by studying their atmospheric chemistry, dispersion and transport pathways away from the source and deposition in the environment, so as to be able to assess accurately the risk posed to human health and the natural environment. An important knowledge gap until recently has been the consideration of the atmospheric chemistry of these amine emissions simultaneously with dispersion and deposition studies so as to perform reliable human health and environmental risk assessments. The authors have developed a methodology to assess the distribution of such emissions away from a post-combustion facility by studying the atmospheric chemistry of monoethanolamine, the most commonly used solvent for CO2 capture, and those of the resulting degradation amines, methylamine and dimethylamine. This was coupled with dispersion modeling calculations (Manzoor, et al., 2014; Manzoor et al,2015). Rate coefficients describing the entire atmospheric chemistry schemes of the amines studied were evaluated employing quantum chemical theoretical and kinetic modeling calculations. These coefficients were used to solve the advection-dispersion-chemical equation using an atmospheric dispersion model, ADMS 5. This methodology is applicable to any size of a power plant and at any geographical location. In this paper, the humman health risk assessment is integrated in the modelling study. The methodology is demonstrated on a case study on the UK's largest capture pilot plant, Ferrybridge CCPilot 100+, to estimate the dispersion, chemical

  17. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W. A. Owca

    2007-01-01

    This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)

  18. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V.

    2007-01-01

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  19. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V. [Electrical Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 (India)

    2007-12-15

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  20. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, T.H.; Liang, K.S.; Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S.; Patelli, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10 −3 . • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10 −5 . - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability of the

  1. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, T.H. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Liang, K.S., E-mail: ksliang@alum.mit.edu [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Patelli, E. [Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Room 610, Brodie Tower, L69 3GQ (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10{sup −3}. • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10{sup −5}. - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability

  2. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  3. Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

  4. Validation of an Integrative Methodology to Assess and Monitor Reductive Dechlorination of Chlorinated Ethenes in Contaminated Aquifers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tarnawski, S.E.; Rossi, P.; Brennerová, Mária; Stavělová, M.; Holliger, Ch.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 4, February (2016), s. 7 E-ISSN 2296-665X R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02020534 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : dechlorination * integrative methodology * chlorinated ethenes Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology

  5. A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover

  6. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  7. Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonkinson, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

  8. Methodological issues in cardiovascular epidemiology: the risk of determining absolute risk through statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demosthenes B Panagiotakos

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Vassilis StavrinosOffice of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Department of Dietetics, Nutrition, Harokopio University, Athens, GreeceAbstract: During the past years there has been increasing interest in the development of cardiovascular disease functions that predict future events at individual level. However, this effort has not been so far very successful, since several investigators have reported large differences in the estimation of the absolute risk among different populations. For example, it seems that predictive models that have been derived from US or north European populations  overestimate the incidence of cardiovascular events in south European and Japanese populations. A potential explanation could be attributed to several factors such as geographical, cultural, social, behavioral, as well as genetic variations between the investigated populations in addition to various methodological, statistical, issues relating to the estimation of these predictive models. Based on current literature it can be concluded that, while risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is a useful tool and might be valuable in controlling the burden of the disease in a population, further work is required to improve the accuracy of the present predictive models.Keywords: cardiovascular disease, risk, models

  9. Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

  10. Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

    2011-01-01

    The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

  11. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  12. Value and Vision-based Methodology in Integrated Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tollestrup, Christian

    on empirical data from workshop where the Value and Vision-based methodology has been taught. The research approach chosen for this investigation is Action Research, where the researcher plays an active role in generating the data and gains a deeper understanding of the investigated phenomena. The result...... of this thesis is the value transformation from an explicit set of values to a product concept using a vision based concept development methodology based on the Pyramid Model (Lerdahl, 2001) in a design team context. The aim of this thesis is to examine how the process of value transformation is occurring within...... is divided in three; the systemic unfolding of the Value and Vision-based methodology, the structured presentation of practical implementation of the methodology and finally the analysis and conclusion regarding the value transformation, phenomena and learning aspects of the methodology....

  13. Applicability of risk-informed criticality methodology to spent fuel repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, C.; Thomas, D.A.; Favet, D.

    2000-01-01

    An important objective of geologic disposal is keeping the fissionable material in a condition so that a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction (criticality) is highly unlikely. This objective supports the overall performance objective of any repository, which is to protect the health and safety of the public by limiting radiological exposure. This paper describes a risk-informed, performance-based methodology, which combines deterministic and probabilistic approaches for evaluating the criticality potential of high-level waste and spent nuclear fuel after the repository is sealed and permanently closed (postclosure). (authors)

  14. Methodology for the Integration of Safety in the Optimization of the Advanced Reactors Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grinblat, P.; Schlamp, M.; Brasnarof, D.; Gimenez, M.

    2003-01-01

    In this work a new methodology has been developed and implemented for taking into account the safety levels of the reactor in a design optimization process, by using Design Maps.They represent a new technique for comparing critical variables in case an accidental sequenced happened, with limit values set by the design criteria.So a good balance is achieved, without allowing the economic performance search to cause a too risky reactor, and guaranteeing the competitiveness of it in spite of the safety costs.Up to the moment, there is no design tool able to accomplish this task in an integrated way.A computational tool based on this methodology has been implemented.These tool specially programmed routines allow carrying out the mentioned tasks

  15. Survey of Dynamic PSA Methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hansul; Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Taewan

    2015-01-01

    Event Tree(ET)/Fault Tree(FT) are significant methodology in Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) for Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs). ET/FT methodology has the advantage for users to be able to easily learn and model. It enables better communication between engineers engaged in the same field. However, conventional methodologies are difficult to cope with the dynamic behavior (e.g. operation mode changes or sequence-dependent failure) and integrated situation of mechanical failure and human errors. Meanwhile, new possibilities are coming for the improved PSA by virtue of the dramatic development on digital hardware, software, information technology, and data analysis.. More specifically, the computing environment has been greatly improved with being compared to the past, so we are able to conduct risk analysis with the large amount of data actually available. One method which can take the technological advantages aforementioned should be the dynamic PSA such that conventional ET/FT can have time- and condition-dependent behaviors in accident scenarios. In this paper, we investigated the various enabling techniques for the dynamic PSA. Even though its history and academic achievement was great, it seems less interesting from industrial and regulatory viewpoint. Authors expect this can contribute to better understanding of dynamic PSA in terms of algorithm, practice, and applicability. In paper, the overview for the dynamic PSA was conducted. Most of methodologies share similar concepts. Among them, DDET seems a backbone for most of methodologies since it can be applied to large problems. The common characteristics sharing the concept of DDET are as follows: • Both deterministic and stochastic approaches • Improves the identification of PSA success criteria • Helps to limit detrimental effects of sequence binning (normally adopted in PSA) • Helps to avoid defining non-optimal success criteria that may distort the risk • Framework for comprehensively considering

  16. Survey of Dynamic PSA Methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hansul; Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Taewan [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Event Tree(ET)/Fault Tree(FT) are significant methodology in Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) for Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs). ET/FT methodology has the advantage for users to be able to easily learn and model. It enables better communication between engineers engaged in the same field. However, conventional methodologies are difficult to cope with the dynamic behavior (e.g. operation mode changes or sequence-dependent failure) and integrated situation of mechanical failure and human errors. Meanwhile, new possibilities are coming for the improved PSA by virtue of the dramatic development on digital hardware, software, information technology, and data analysis.. More specifically, the computing environment has been greatly improved with being compared to the past, so we are able to conduct risk analysis with the large amount of data actually available. One method which can take the technological advantages aforementioned should be the dynamic PSA such that conventional ET/FT can have time- and condition-dependent behaviors in accident scenarios. In this paper, we investigated the various enabling techniques for the dynamic PSA. Even though its history and academic achievement was great, it seems less interesting from industrial and regulatory viewpoint. Authors expect this can contribute to better understanding of dynamic PSA in terms of algorithm, practice, and applicability. In paper, the overview for the dynamic PSA was conducted. Most of methodologies share similar concepts. Among them, DDET seems a backbone for most of methodologies since it can be applied to large problems. The common characteristics sharing the concept of DDET are as follows: • Both deterministic and stochastic approaches • Improves the identification of PSA success criteria • Helps to limit detrimental effects of sequence binning (normally adopted in PSA) • Helps to avoid defining non-optimal success criteria that may distort the risk • Framework for comprehensively considering

  17. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2011-01-01

    The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. The Role of Standardization in Improving the Effectiveness of Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ciocoiu, Carmen Nadia; Dobrea, Razvan Catalin

    2010-01-01

    The need of standardization in risk management is justified by the efforts to develop and introduce, during the last few years, integrated risk management frameworks inside the organizations. The financial crisis has underscored the fact that significant improvements in risk management organizations and capabilities are required. The business community and also the experts recognize that the risk management standards have an important role in improving the effectiveness of integrated risk man...

  20. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

  2. Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

  3. Risk vs. Reward: A Methodology to Assess Investment in Marine Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Hutcheson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The majority of WEC (wave energy converter projects are expensive and pose a large risk to a developer. Currently no developers have been successful in commercialising a WEC. So far, many wave energy feasibility studies have only considered the LCOE (levelised cost of electricity, assessing investment in marine energy technologies from a purely financial point of view. No previous studies have, however, explicitly accounted for development risk as well as the LCOE to determine the feasibility of a project. This paper proposes a new methodology that can be used to account for both risk and the LCOE to give a clearer picture of the feasibility of a WEC development. By combining the LCOE and risk score for a particular development, the “value for risk” can be calculated, presented here as the “RR ratio” (“Risk/Reward ratio”. A number of case studies were chosen to test the model, investigating the RR ratio for a number of different WEC technologies and ranking them to suggest an optimal development path for the industry. Results showed that projects that combine many innovative technologies provide the best “value for risk”. These devices overall had the highest risk, suggesting that multiple developers are likely required to collaborate in order to reduce the risk down to acceptable levels for each.

  4. A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

  5. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  6. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  7. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  8. The application of life cycle assessment to integrated solid waste management. Pt. 1: Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clift, R.; Doig, A.; Finnveden, G.

    2000-07-01

    Integrated Waste Management is one of the holistic approaches to environmental and resource management which are emerging from applying the concept of sustainable development. Assessment of waste management options requires application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This paper summarizes the methodology for applying LCA to Integrated Waste Management of Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) developed for and now used by the UK Environment Agency, including recent developments in international fora. Particular attention is devoted to system definition leading to rational and clear compilation of the Life Cycle Inventory, with appropriate 'credit' for recovering materials and/or energy from the waste. LCA of waste management is best seen as a way of structuring information to help decision processes. (Author)

  9. Study of the methodology for sensitivity calculations of fast reactors integral parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renke, C.A.C.

    1981-06-01

    A study of the methodology for sensitivity calculations of integral parameters of fast reactors for the adjustment of multigroup cross sections is presented. A description of several existent methods and theories is given, with special emphasis being regarded to variational perturbation theory, integrant of the sensitivity code VARI-1D used in this work. Two calculational systems are defined and a set of procedures and criteria is structured gathering the necessary conditions for the determination of the sensitivity coefficients. These coefficients are then computed by both the direct method and the variational perturbation theory. A reasonable number of sensitivity coefficients are computed and analyzed for three fast critical assemblies, covering a range of special interest of the spectrum. These coefficients are determined for severa integral parameters, for the capture and fission cross sections of the U-238 and Pu-239, covering all the energy up to 14.5 MeV. The nuclear data used were obtained the CARNAVAL II calculational system of the Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear. An optimization for sensitivity computations in a chainned sequence of procedures is made, yielding the sensitivities in the energy macrogroups as the final stage. (Author) [pt

  10. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  11. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-26

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  12. Evaluating perceptual integration: uniting response-time- and accuracy-based methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidels, Ami; Townsend, James T; Hughes, Howard C; Perry, Lacey A

    2015-02-01

    This investigation brings together a response-time system identification methodology (e.g., Townsend & Wenger Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 11, 391-418, 2004a) and an accuracy methodology, intended to assess models of integration across stimulus dimensions (features, modalities, etc.) that were proposed by Shaw and colleagues (e.g., Mulligan & Shaw Perception & Psychophysics 28, 471-478, 1980). The goal was to theoretically examine these separate strategies and to apply them conjointly to the same set of participants. The empirical phases were carried out within an extension of an established experimental design called the double factorial paradigm (e.g., Townsend & Nozawa Journal of Mathematical Psychology 39, 321-359, 1995). That paradigm, based on response times, permits assessments of architecture (parallel vs. serial processing), stopping rule (exhaustive vs. minimum time), and workload capacity, all within the same blocks of trials. The paradigm introduced by Shaw and colleagues uses a statistic formally analogous to that of the double factorial paradigm, but based on accuracy rather than response times. We demonstrate that the accuracy measure cannot discriminate between parallel and serial processing. Nonetheless, the class of models supported by the accuracy data possesses a suitable interpretation within the same set of models supported by the response-time data. The supported model, consistent across individuals, is parallel and has limited capacity, with the participants employing the appropriate stopping rule for the experimental setting.

  13. The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

    2017-07-01

    Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple

  14. Evaluation of doses and risks from different decontamination and decommissioning strategies using the PRESTO-II methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.

    1986-01-01

    The PRESTO-II methodology may be applied to evaluate doses and health risks from a variety of decontamination and decommissioning activities. This methodology has been implemented in the form of a computer code that has been applied to several sites, and that has been extensively documented. Radionuclide inventories are specified as separate contamination sources either present on the ground surface, covered by non-radioactive soils but lying above the water table, suspended in the atmosphere, or dissolved in surface waters. Hydrologic transport mechanisms considered in the PRESTO-II methodology include chemical exchange, ponding and overflow, surface water transport, groundwater transport, and pumping contaminated groundwater from wells. Varied scenarios of water usage are treated. Atmospheric inputs are based on both resuspension factor and resuspension rate approaches, with inhalation and immersion doses based on a Gaussian plume transport calculation. Site activities that are considered include land clearing, farming, and residing on the site. Exposure and dose calculations are derived from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reg. Guide 1.109 approach, while risk calculations use a life-table approach developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Internal dose conversion factors are taken from ICRP 26 and 30, while risk conversion factors are values suggested by EPA. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  15. Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

    2014-01-01

    Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

  16. Age-dependent risk-based methodology and its application to prioritization of nuclear power plant components and to maintenance for managing aging using PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levy, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper is based on a study to demonstrate several important ways that the age-dependent risk-based methodology developed by the Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program may be applied to resolving important issues related to the aging of nuclear power plant systems, structures, and components (SSCs). The study was sponsored by the NPAR Program of the Division of Engineering, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Initiated on the basis of a Users Need Request, the age-dependent risk-based methodology has been under development by the NPAR Program for several years. In this methodology, the time-dependent change in a component's risk contribution is the product of two factors: (1) the risk importance of the component (e.g., the change in its risk contribution when it is assumed to be totally unavailable to perform its intended safety function) and (2) the change in its unavailability with time. This change in the component's unavailability with time is a function of the component's aging rate and plant inspection and maintenance practices. The methodology permits evaluations of the age-dependent risk contributions from both single- and multiple-components. Principal results and conclusions generated by the methodology demonstrations are discussed

  17. A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2012-01-01

    We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility

  18. A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

    2012-08-01

    We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show

  19. Structural integrity assessments of steam generator tubes using the FAD methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergant, Marcos A., E-mail: marcos.bergant@cab.cnea.gov.ar [Gerencia CAREM, Centro Atómico Bariloche (CNEA), Av. Bustillo 9500, San Carlos de Bariloche 8400 (Argentina); Yawny, Alejandro A., E-mail: yawny@cab.cnea.gov.ar [División Física de Metales, Centro Atómico Bariloche (CNEA)/CONICET, Av. Bustillo 9500, San Carlos de Bariloche 8400 (Argentina); Perez Ipiña, Juan E., E-mail: juan.perezipina@fain.uncoma.edu.ar [Grupo Mecánica de Fractura, Universidad Nacional del Comahue/CONICET, Buenos Aires 1400, Neuquén 8300 (Argentina)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • The Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) is used to assess cracked steam generator tubes. • Typical loading conditions and reported tensile and fracture properties are used. • The FAD is capable to predict the failure mode for different cracks and loads. • The FAD can be used to reduce the conservatism of the current plugging criteria. • Appropriate tensile and fracture properties at operating conditions are required. - Abstract: Steam generator tubes (SGTs) represents up to 60% of the total primary pressure retaining boundary area of a nuclear power plant. They have been found susceptible to diverse degradation mechanisms during service. Due to the significance of a SGT failure on the plant safe operation, nuclear regulatory authorities have established tube plugging or repairing criteria which are based on the defect depth. The widespreadly used “40% criterion” proposed in the 70s is an example whose use is still recommended in the last editions of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. In the present work, an alternative, more realistic and less conservative methodology for SGT integrity evaluation is proposed. It is based on the Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) and takes advantage of the recent developments in non-destructive techniques which allow a more comprehensive characterization of tube defects, i.e., depth, length, orientation and type. The proposed approach has been applied to: the study of the influence of primary and secondary stresses on tube integrity; the prediction of failure mode (i.e., ductile fracture or plastic collapse) of defective SGTs for varied crack geometries and loading conditions; the analysis of the sensibility of tensile and fracture properties with temperature. The potentiality of the FAD as a comprehensive methodology for predicting the failure loads and failure modes of flawed SGTs is highlighted.

  20. Structural integrity assessments of steam generator tubes using the FAD methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergant, Marcos A.; Yawny, Alejandro A.; Perez Ipiña, Juan E.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) is used to assess cracked steam generator tubes. • Typical loading conditions and reported tensile and fracture properties are used. • The FAD is capable to predict the failure mode for different cracks and loads. • The FAD can be used to reduce the conservatism of the current plugging criteria. • Appropriate tensile and fracture properties at operating conditions are required. - Abstract: Steam generator tubes (SGTs) represents up to 60% of the total primary pressure retaining boundary area of a nuclear power plant. They have been found susceptible to diverse degradation mechanisms during service. Due to the significance of a SGT failure on the plant safe operation, nuclear regulatory authorities have established tube plugging or repairing criteria which are based on the defect depth. The widespreadly used “40% criterion” proposed in the 70s is an example whose use is still recommended in the last editions of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. In the present work, an alternative, more realistic and less conservative methodology for SGT integrity evaluation is proposed. It is based on the Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) and takes advantage of the recent developments in non-destructive techniques which allow a more comprehensive characterization of tube defects, i.e., depth, length, orientation and type. The proposed approach has been applied to: the study of the influence of primary and secondary stresses on tube integrity; the prediction of failure mode (i.e., ductile fracture or plastic collapse) of defective SGTs for varied crack geometries and loading conditions; the analysis of the sensibility of tensile and fracture properties with temperature. The potentiality of the FAD as a comprehensive methodology for predicting the failure loads and failure modes of flawed SGTs is highlighted.

  1. The Socio-ecological Fit of Human Responses to Environmental Degradation: An Integrated Assessment Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briassoulis, Helen

    2015-12-01

    The scientific and policy interest in the human responses to environmental degradation usually focuses on responses sensu stricto and `best practices' that potentially abate degradation in affected areas. The transfer of individual, discrete instruments and `best practices' to different contexts is challenging, however, because socio-ecological systems are complex and environmental degradation is contextual and contingent. To sensibly assess the effectiveness of formal and informal interventions to combat environmental degradation, the paper proposes an integrative, non-reductionist analytic, the `response assemblage', for the study of `responses-in-context,' i.e., products of human decisions to utilize environmental resources to satisfy human needs in socio-ecological systems. Response assemblages are defined as geographically and historically unique, provisional, open, territorial wholes, complex compositions emerging from processes of assembling biophysical and human components, including responses sensu stricto, from affected focal and other socio-ecological systems, to serve human goals, one of which may be combatting environmental degradation. The degree of match among the components, called the socio- ecological fit of the response assemblage, indicates how effectively their contextual and contingent interactions maintain the socio-ecological resilience, promote sustainable development, and secure the continuous provision of ecosystem services in a focal socio-ecological system. The paper presents a conceptual approach to the analysis of the socio-ecological fit of response assemblages and details an integrated assessment methodology synthesizing the resilience, assemblage, and `problem of fit' literature. Lastly, it summarizes the novelty, value, and policy relevance of conceptualizing human responses as response assemblages and of the integrated assessment methodology, reconsiders `best practices' and suggests selected future research directions.

  2. Risk management in a university environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Ann; Walker, Ian

    2011-06-01

    Risk is an integral part of quality assurance in higher education in Australia. This paper describes a generic methodology for the identification and management of risk in a university or similar tertiary education environment and outlines a framework that enables the management of risk to be incorporated in the institution's governance cycle. The new approach here is that risk is embedded in the quality assurance framework and, in turn, in the strategic planning and budgeting processes. In many organisations, risk is implemented as a separate process and not considered in any meaningful way as integral to the strategic direction and performance of the university. The paper is based on work carried out by the authors and others between March 2008 and April 2009 to develop a comprehensive system for managing risk in a major Australian university, including processes whereby risk management could be integrated with, and add value to, the overall governance of the university. The case study is described in the appendix to this paper.

  3. Risk assessment and ranking methodologies for hazardous chemical defense waste: a state-of-the-art review and evaluation. Task 1 report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, M.S.Y.; Rodricks, J.V.; St Hilaire, C.; Bras, R.L.

    1986-06-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under Task 1 of the Risk Assessment Evaluation Task under the Hazardous Chemical Defense Waste Management Program of the Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of Task 1 was to identify, review, and evaluate the state-of-the-art tools and techniques available for ranking and evaluating disposal facilities. These tools were evaluated for their applicability to DOE's mixed hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites. Various ranking methodologies were reviewed and three were evaluated in detail. Areas that were found to be deficient in each ranking methodology were presented in the report. Recommendations were given for the development of an improved ranking methodology for use on DOE's sites. A literature review was then performed on the various components of a risk assessment methodology. They include source term evaluation, geosphere transport models, exposure pathways models, dose effects models, and sensitivity/uncertainty techniques. A number of recommendations have been made in the report based on the review and evaluation for the development of a comprehensive risk assessment methodology in evaluating mixed waste disposal sites

  4. Optimising an integrated crop-livestock farm using risk programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SE Visagie

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have analysed farm planning decisions focusing on producer risk preferences. Few studies have focussed on the farm planning decisions in an integrated croplivestock farm context. Income variability and means of managing risk continues to receive much attention in farm planning research. Different risk programming models have attempted to focus on minimising the income variability of farm activities. This study attempts to identify the optimal mix of crops and the number of animals the farm needs to keep in the presence of crop production risk for a range of risk levels. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to model the decision environment faced by an integrated crop-livestock farmer. The deviation of income from the expected value was used as a measure of risk. A case study is presented with representative data from a farm in the Swartland area. An investigation of the results of the model under different constraints shows that, in general, strategies that depend on crop rotation principles are preferred to strategies that follow mono-crop production practices.

  5. Application of Decomposition Methodology to Solve Integrated Process Design and Controller Design Problems for Reactor-Separator-Recycle System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abd.Hamid, Mohd-Kamaruddin; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the integrated process design and controller design (IPDC) for a reactor-separator-recycle (RSR) system and evaluates a decomposition methodology to solve the IPDC problem. Accordingly, the IPDC problem is solved by decomposing it into four hierarchical stages: (i) pre...... the design of a RSR system involving consecutive reactions, A B -> C and shown to provide effective solutions that satisfy design, control and cost criteria. The advantage of the proposed methodology is that it is systematic, makes use of thermodynamic-process knowledge and provides valuable insights......-analysis, (ii) design analysis, (iii) controller design analysis, and (iv) final selection and verification. The methodology makes use of thermodynamic-process insights and the reverse design approach to arrive at the final process-controller design decisions. The developed methodology is illustrated through...

  6. The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

    2012-04-01

    The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  7. White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

    2015-07-15

    The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

  8. Risk analysis methodology for spent fuel repositories in bedded salt: methodlogy summary and differences between spent fuel and high level wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepping, R.E.; Chu, M.S.

    1981-06-01

    In the absence of spent fuel reprocessing plans, unreprocessed spent fuel has become a candidate waste form for geologic disposal. In order to understand the public health risks from such disposal and to gain insights into the factors that influence them, a methodology is needed to combine the effects of site geology and hydrology, physical and chemical properties of the waste form, and the details of the engineering design. This report outlines such a methodology which the authors currently are applying to the analysis of unreprocessed spent fuel disposal. The methodology is the same methodology as was developed to describe the risks from geologic disposal of wastes from reprocessed spent fuel. The difference between spent fuel wastes and wastes from reprocessing that may affect the applicability of the methodology are highlighted

  9. A new methodology for modelling of health risk from urban flooding exemplified by cholera

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark, Ole; Jørgensen, Claus; Hammond, Michael

    2016-01-01

    outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives...... and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper...... an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported...

  10. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-04-01

    This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

  11. Methodological procedures and analytical instruments to evaluate an indicators integrated archive for urban management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Del Ciello, R.; Napoleoni, S.

    1998-01-01

    This guide provides the results of a research developed at ENEA (National Agency for new Technology, Energy and the Environment) Casaccia center (Rome, Italy) aimed to define methodological procedures and analytical instruments needed to carry out an indicators integrated archive for urban management. The guide also defines the scheme of a negotiation process aimed to reach and exchange data and information among governmental and local administrations, non-governmental organizations and scientific bodies [it

  12. An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

  13. A methodology for analyzing the detection and suppression of fires in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.; Apostolakis, G.

    1986-01-01

    The assessment of the fire risk in nuclear power plants requires the analysis of fire scenarios within specified rooms. A methodology that integrates the fire protection features of a given room into an existing fire risk analysis framework is developed. An important component of this methodology is a model for the time required to detect and suppress a fire in a given room, called the ''hazard time.'' This model accounts for the reliability of fire detection and suppression equipment, as well as for the characteristics rates of the detection and suppression processes. Because the available evidence for fire detection and suppression in nuclear power plants is sparse and often qualitative, a second component of this methodology is a set of methods needed to employ imprecise information in a statistical analysis. These methods can be applied to a wide variety of problems

  14. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  15. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  16. Human error risk management for engineering systems: a methodology for design, safety assessment, accident investigation and training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacciabue, P.C.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to tackle methodological issues associated with the inclusion of cognitive and dynamic considerations into Human Reliability methods. A methodology called Human Error Risk Management for Engineering Systems is presented that offers a 'roadmap' for selecting and consistently applying Human Factors approaches in different areas of application and contains also a 'body' of possible methods and techniques of its own. Two types of possible application are discussed to demonstrate practical applications of the methodology. Specific attention is dedicated to the issue of data collection and definition from specific field assessment

  17. Proposal of methodology of tsunami accident sequence analysis induced by earthquake using DQFM methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muta, Hitoshi; Muramatsu, Ken

    2017-01-01

    Since the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the Japanese regulatory body has improved and upgraded the regulation of nuclear power plants, and continuous effort is required to enhance risk management in the mid- to long term. Earthquakes and tsunamis are considered as the most important risks, and the establishment of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies for these events is a major issue of current PRA. The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) addressed the PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes, which is one of the methodologies that should be enhanced step by step for the improvement and maturity of PRA techniques. The AESJ standard for the procedure of seismic PRA for nuclear power plants in 2015 provides the basic concept of the methodology; however, details of the application to the actual plant PRA model have not been sufficiently provided. This study proposes a detailed PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes using the DQFM methodology, which contributes to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, this study also states the issues which need more research. (author)

  18. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One major environmental concern associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of short- and long-term quantitative risks to the environment resulting from release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. The paper describes a comprehensive model developed during 1976 for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model consisted of a release or fault-tree model, an environmental model and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of radioactive and non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short term to develop general environmental standards applicable to any radioactive waste management

  19. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Brebano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One of the major environmental concerns associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the University of New Mexico has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of both the short-term as well as long-term quantitative risks on the environment resulting from the release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. This past year a comprehensive model has been developed for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model has consisted of a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological, and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of both radioactive as well as non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short-term to develop general environmental standards

  20. An integrated dynamic model for probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsueh, K.-S.; Wang Kong

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a simulation based accident sequence analysis program (ADS) for large scale dynamic accident sequence simulation. Human operators, front-line and support systems as well as plant thermal-hydraulic behavior are explicitly modeled as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. To overcome the model size, the proposed methodology employs several techniques including use of 'initial state vector' which decouples time-dependent and time-independent factors, and a depth first integration method in which the computation memory demand increases in a linear order. The computer implementation of the method is capable of simulating up to 500 branch points in sequence development, models system failure during operation, allows for recovery from operator errors and hardware failures, and implements a simple model for operator system interactions. (author)

  1. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  2. Epithelial cell proliferative activity of Barrett's esophagus : methodology and correlation with traditional cancer risk markers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, FTM; Ganesh, S; Kuipers, EJ; De Jager-Krikken, A; Karrenbeld, A; Harms, Geert; Sluiter, WJ; Koudstaal, J; Klinkenberg-Knol, EC; Lamers, CBHW; Kleibeuker, JH

    Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a premalignant condition, due to chronic gastroesophageal reflux. Effective antireflux therapy may diminish cancer risk. To evaluate this option an intermediate marker is needed. We developed a methodology for measurement of epithelial cell proliferative activity of

  3. Lessons Learned From Implementation of Westinghouse Owners Group Risk-Informed Inservice Inspection Methodology for Piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, Paul R.; Haessler, Richard L.; McNeill, Alex; Pyne, Mark A.; West, Raymond A.

    2006-01-01

    Risk-informed inservice inspection (ISI) programs have been in use for over seven years as an alternative to current regulatory requirements in the development and implementation of ISI programs for nuclear plant piping systems. Programs using the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) (now known as the Pressurized Water Reactor Owners Group - PWROG) risk-informed ISI methodology have been developed and implemented within the U.S. and several other countries. Additionally, many plants have conducted or are in the process of conducting updates to their risk-informed ISI programs. In the development and implementation of these risk-informed ISI programs and the associated updates to those programs, the following important lessons learned have been identified and are addressed. Concepts such as 'loss of inventory', which are typically not modeled in a plant's probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for all systems. The importance of considering operator actions in the identification of consequences associated with a piping failure and the categorization of segments as high safety significant (HSS) or low safety significant (LSS). The impact that the above considerations have had on the large early release frequency (LERF) and categorization of segments as HSS or LSS. The importance of automation. Making the update process more efficient to reduce costs associated with maintaining the risk-informed ISI program. The insights gained are associated with many of the steps in the risk-informed ISI process including: development of the consequences associated with piping failures, categorization of segments, structural element selection and program updates. Many of these lessons learned have impacted the results of the risk-informed ISI programs and have impacted the updates to those programs. This paper summarizes the lessons learned and insights gained from the application of the WOG risk-informed ISI methodology in the U.S., Europe and Asia. (authors)

  4. The Irma-sponge Program: Methodologies For Sustainable Flood Risk Management Along The Rhine and Meuse Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooijer, A.; van Os, A. G.

    Recent flood events and socio-economic developments have increased the awareness of the need for improved flood risk management along the Rhine and Meuse Rivers. In response to this, the IRMA-SPONGE program incorporated 13 research projects in which over 30 organisations from all 6 River Basin Countries co-operated. The pro- gram is financed partly by the European INTERREG Rhine-Meuse Activities (IRMA). The main aim of IRMA-SPONGE is defined as: "The development of methodologies and tools to assess the impact of flood risk reduction measures and of land-use and climate change scenarios. This to support the spatial planning process in establish- ing alternative strategies for an optimal realisation of the hydraulic, economical and ecological functions of the Rhine and Meuse River Basins." Further important objec- tives are to promote transboundary co-operation in flood risk management by both scientific and management organisations, and to promote public participation in flood management issues. The projects in the program are grouped in three clusters, looking at measures from different scientific angles. The results of the projects in each cluster have been evaluated to define recommendations for flood risk management; some of these outcomes call for a change to current practices, e.g.: 1. (Flood Risk and Hydrol- ogy cluster): hydrological changes due to climate change exceed those due to further land use change, and are significant enough to necessitate a change in flood risk man- agement strategies if the currently claimed protection levels are to be sustained. 2. (Flood Protection and Ecology cluster): to not only provide flood protection but also enhance the ecological quality of rivers and floodplains, new flood risk management concepts ought to integrate ecological knowledge from start to finish, with a clear perspective on the type of nature desired and the spatial and time scales considered. 3. (Flood Risk Management and Spatial Planning cluster): extreme

  5. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  6. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

  7. Methodology for Supply Chain Integration: A Case Study in the Artisan Industry of Footwear

    OpenAIRE

    Pérez-Gallardo, Jorge Raúl; Hernández-Vera, Beatriz; Moras Sánchez, Constantino Gerardo; Aguilar Lasserre, Alberto Alfonso; Posada-Gómez, Rubén; Juárez-Martínez, Ulises; Alor-Hernández, Giner

    2014-01-01

    The supply chain is a major issue in a global market. The efficient relationship between supplier-producer-retailer conforms the perfect combination to achieve a high level of competitiveness according to the needs of increasingly demanding and changing markets. The difficulty of synchronizing the members within the SC is related to the inherent uncertain factors. This paper proposes a methodology for integrating the supply chain that can be applied in any type of business. To demonstrate its...

  8. Assessment of trends in desertification: A proposed methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejong, Andrew Gordon

    Desertification is most commonly accepted as "land degradation that occurs in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas as a result of climatic variations and human activities." Primary influences include over-grazing, over-cultivation, exploitation of water resources and climate. Such influences lead to reduced productive capacity of land and potentially, desert-like conditions. Once degraded, the recovery of these natural systems may take decades or centuries. This research focused on two environments as case studies, Saskatchewan, Canada, and Bangladesh. Forecasts of desertification were depicted by integrating observed meteorological data, general circulation model (GCM) projections and a range of physical, biological and social indicators to create maps that depict the regions at greatest risk of desertification. Using GIS software, a thematic layer was employed for each indicator and they were integrated to form a single map of desertification. This methodology was found capable for identifying areas at risk of desertification in Saskatchewan and Bangladesh.

  9. The Socio-ecological Fit of Human Responses to Environmental Degradation: An Integrated Assessment Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briassoulis, Helen

    2015-12-01

    The scientific and policy interest in the human responses to environmental degradation usually focuses on responses sensu stricto and 'best practices' that potentially abate degradation in affected areas. The transfer of individual, discrete instruments and 'best practices' to different contexts is challenging, however, because socio-ecological systems are complex and environmental degradation is contextual and contingent. To sensibly assess the effectiveness of formal and informal interventions to combat environmental degradation, the paper proposes an integrative, non-reductionist analytic, the 'response assemblage', for the study of 'responses-in-context,' i.e., products of human decisions to utilize environmental resources to satisfy human needs in socio-ecological systems. Response assemblages are defined as geographically and historically unique, provisional, open, territorial wholes, complex compositions emerging from processes of assembling biophysical and human components, including responses sensu stricto, from affected focal and other socio-ecological systems, to serve human goals, one of which may be combatting environmental degradation. The degree of match among the components, called the socio-ecological fit of the response assemblage, indicates how effectively their contextual and contingent interactions maintain the socio-ecological resilience, promote sustainable development, and secure the continuous provision of ecosystem services in a focal socio-ecological system. The paper presents a conceptual approach to the analysis of the socio-ecological fit of response assemblages and details an integrated assessment methodology synthesizing the resilience, assemblage, and 'problem of fit' literature. Lastly, it summarizes the novelty, value, and policy relevance of conceptualizing human responses as response assemblages and of the integrated assessment methodology, reconsiders 'best practices' and suggests selected future research directions.

  10. Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Johnathan

    2003-05-01

    This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

  11. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2013-06-01

    Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  12. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  13. Proposition of a modeling and an analysis methodology of integrated reverse logistics chain in the direct chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faycal Mimouni

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Propose a modeling and analysis methodology based on the combination of Bayesian networks and Petri networks of the reverse logistics integrated the direct supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: Network modeling by combining Petri and Bayesian network. Findings: Modeling with Bayesian network complimented with Petri network to break the cycle problem in the Bayesian network. Research limitations/implications: Demands are independent from returns. Practical implications: Model can only be used on nonperishable products. Social implications: Legislation aspects: Recycling laws; Protection of environment; Client satisfaction via after sale service. Originality/value: Bayesian network with a cycle combined with the Petri Network.

  14. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  15. Crack Growth-Based Predictive Methodology for the Maintenance of the Structural Integrity of Repaired and Nonrepaired Aging Engine Stationary Components

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barron, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... Specifically, the FAA's goal was to develop "Crack Growth-Based Predictive Methodologies for the Maintenance of the Structural Integrity of Repaired and Nonrepaired Aging Engine Stationary Components...

  16. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der, H.; Braak, ter, C.J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5?200?nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrate...

  17. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  18. A combined reaction class approach with integrated molecular orbital+molecular orbital (IMOMO) methodology: A practical tool for kinetic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Thanh N.; Maity, Dilip K.; Truong, Thanh-Thai T.

    2000-01-01

    We present a new practical computational methodology for predicting thermal rate constants of reactions involving large molecules or a large number of elementary reactions in the same class. This methodology combines the integrated molecular orbital+molecular orbital (IMOMO) approach with our recently proposed reaction class models for tunneling. With the new methodology, we show that it is possible to significantly reduce the computational cost by several orders of magnitude while compromising the accuracy in the predicted rate constants by less than 40% over a wide range of temperatures. Another important result is that the computational cost increases only slightly as the system size increases. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics

  19. Multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) methodology for the aircraft conceptual design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Liaquat Ullah

    An integrated design and optimization methodology has been developed for the conceptual design of an aircraft. The methodology brings higher fidelity Computer Aided Design, Engineering and Manufacturing (CAD, CAE and CAM) Tools such as CATIA, FLUENT, ANSYS and SURFCAM into the conceptual design by utilizing Excel as the integrator and controller. The approach is demonstrated to integrate with many of the existing low to medium fidelity codes such as the aerodynamic panel code called CMARC and sizing and constraint analysis codes, thus providing the multi-fidelity capabilities to the aircraft designer. The higher fidelity design information from the CAD and CAE tools for the geometry, aerodynamics, structural and environmental performance is provided for the application of the structured design methods such as the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and the Pugh's Method. The higher fidelity tools bring the quantitative aspects of a design such as precise measurements of weight, volume, surface areas, center of gravity (CG) location, lift over drag ratio, and structural weight, as well as the qualitative aspects such as external geometry definition, internal layout, and coloring scheme early in the design process. The performance and safety risks involved with the new technologies can be reduced by modeling and assessing their impact more accurately on the performance of the aircraft. The methodology also enables the design and evaluation of the novel concepts such as the blended (BWB) and the hybrid wing body (HWB) concepts. Higher fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and finite element analysis (FEA) allow verification of the claims for the performance gains in aerodynamics and ascertain risks of structural failure due to different pressure distribution in the fuselage as compared with the tube and wing design. The higher fidelity aerodynamics and structural models can lead to better cost estimates that help reduce the financial risks as well. This helps in

  20. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  1. Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusdhianto Setiawan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.

  2. Development of the fire PSA methodology and the fire analysis computer code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsunori, Ogura; Tomomichi, Ito; Tsuyoshi, Uchida; Yusuke, Kasagawa

    2009-01-01

    Fire PSA methodology has been developed and was applied to NPPs in Japan for power operation and LPSD states. CDFs of preliminary fire PSA for power operation were the higher than that of internal events. Fire propagation analysis code system (CFAST/FDS Network) was being developed and verified thru OECD-PRISME Project. Extension of the scope for LPSD state is planned to figure out the risk level. In order to figure out the fire risk level precisely, the enhancement of the methodology is planned. Verification and validation of phenomenological fire propagation analysis code (CFAST/FDS Network) in the context of Fire PSA. Enhancement of the methodology such as an application of 'Electric Circuit Analysis' in NUREG/CR-6850 and related tests in order to quantify the hot-short effect precisely. Development of seismic-induced fire PSA method being integration of existing seismic PSA and fire PSA methods is ongoing. Fire PSA will be applied to review the validity of fire prevention and mitigation measures

  3. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Measurements of integrated components' parameters versus irradiation doses gamma radiation (60Co) dosimetry-methodology-tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuan, J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used for the irradiation of the integrated components and the measurements of their parameters, using Quality Insurance of dosimetry: - Measurement of the integrated dose using the competences of the Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): - Measurement of irradiation dose versus source/component distance, using a calibrated equipment. - Use of ALANINE dosimeters, placed on the support of the irradiated components. - Assembly and polarization of components during the irradiations. Selection of the irradiator. - Measurement of the irradiated components's parameters, using the competences of the societies: - GenRad: GR130 tests equipement placed in the DEIN/SIR-CEN SACLAY. - Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): GR125 tests equipment and this associated programmes test [fr

  5. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  6. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  7. Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

  8. Dosimetric methodology of the ICRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckerman, K.F.

    1994-01-01

    Establishment of guidance for the protection of workers and members of the public from radiation exposures necessitates estimation of the radiation dose to tissues of the body at risk. The dosimetric methodology formulated by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is intended to be responsive to this need. While developed for radiation protection, elements of the methodology are often applied in addressing other radiation issues; e.g., risk