Identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics based on statistical and textural features.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Fei; Li, Jiao-ting; Long, Min

2015-03-01

To discriminate the acquisition pipelines of digital images, a novel scheme for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics is proposed based on statistical and textural features. First, the differences between them are investigated from the view of statistics and texture, and 31 dimensions of feature are acquired for identification. Then, LIBSVM is used for the classification. Finally, the experimental results are presented. The results show that it can achieve an identification accuracy of 97.89% for computer-generated graphics, and an identification accuracy of 97.75% for natural images. The analyses also demonstrate the proposed method has excellent performance, compared with some existing methods based only on statistical features or other features. The method has a great potential to be implemented for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

Science.gov (United States)

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-05-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Giuliani

2011-01-01

Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

2011-01-01

With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain Brown

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

Deep Learning for Plant Identification in Natural Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yu; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Guan; Zhang, Haiyan

2017-01-01

Plant image identification has become an interdisciplinary focus in both botanical taxonomy and computer vision. The first plant image dataset collected by mobile phone in natural scene is presented, which contains 10,000 images of 100 ornamental plant species in Beijing Forestry University campus. A 26-layer deep learning model consisting of 8 residual building blocks is designed for large-scale plant classification in natural environment. The proposed model achieves a recognition rate of 91.78% on the BJFU100 dataset, demonstrating that deep learning is a promising technology for smart forestry.

Deep Learning for Plant Identification in Natural Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Sun

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Plant image identification has become an interdisciplinary focus in both botanical taxonomy and computer vision. The first plant image dataset collected by mobile phone in natural scene is presented, which contains 10,000 images of 100 ornamental plant species in Beijing Forestry University campus. A 26-layer deep learning model consisting of 8 residual building blocks is designed for large-scale plant classification in natural environment. The proposed model achieves a recognition rate of 91.78% on the BJFU100 dataset, demonstrating that deep learning is a promising technology for smart forestry.

Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, A. C.

2009-04-01

A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

Naturalness, value systems and perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drottz Sjoberg, B.M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: what is natural? And what is Nature? Are perceptions of Nature and naturalness related to perceptions of risk? This paper focuses on these aspects based on results from a Swedish representative sample (N=731), where subjects indicated e.g. the degree of naturalness of various phenomena, their views of nature, and personal life values, as well as perceptions of risk in specified contexts. The results showed a tendency to perceive as natural the phenomenon which is positively valued, i.e. what is natural is also good or desirable. Further, there were weak correlations between perceived naturalness and indicators of technological optimism, possibly indicating that persons with a more generous view of what is natural also more easily might accept change and outcomes due to human intelligence and activity. The construct of 'tampering with nature' has previously been shown to be one good predictor of perceived risk. The respondents also rated their agreement with items aimed to reflect the four 'views of nature' as suggested by Cultural Theory, i.e. nature as robust, capricious, tolerant and fragile. Nature was foremost perceived as fragile, but the main result clearly revealed that peoples' views of nature were complex and most often involved several of the suggested categories. The discussion focuses on the possible implications on environmental concern and risk perception given that Nature would develop into an undesirable type of locality. (author)

Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragozin, A.L.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Influence of the definition of acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery on incidence, patient identification, and identification of risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Noyez, Luc

2011-03-01

Acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery (RF) is a major complication and is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Early recognition and identification of risk factors for RF is therefore important. However, several definitions of RF are used. The intention of this study is to evaluate if the used definitions influence the incidence and the identification of risk factors for RF. We identified, after exclusion of 13 patients with preoperative dialysis, 995 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery at the UMC St. Radboud Medical Center between January 2009 and 15 February 2010 as our study cohort. Apart from the definition used by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons, we selected five major international studies concerning RF, each using a different RF definition. These six definitions were used to evaluate the incidence of and identification of risk factors for RF in our study cohort. There is not only a statistically significant difference in incidence (range 4.94-38.1%) of RF between the definitions (p definition several common but also several different risk variables. Multivariate analysis identified also different independent predictors, with different odds ratios for RF for each definition. This study shows that the used definition of RF influences not only the incidence of RF, but also patient identification and the identification of risk variables. Copyright © 2010 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

2005-05-01

This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research

Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim

2017-08-01

Unexpected increase in cost and delays in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, etc. in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun and schedule overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost and schedule has received extensive attention of researchers, but because of continuous changes and development in the field, the study considered of added value to the construction industry in Egypt, in addition to risk strategy and plan analysis. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost and scheduling should be flexible enough to accommodate changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. As such, the objectives of the presented research in this paper are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost and time contingency. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt. The collected data, output charts and analyses spreadsheets will be used for the development of computerized model built by the authors with identification abbreviation RIAM.

Identification as Incentive to Care: Pre-Service Teachers' Orientation towards Inclusion in Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Gedžune, Inga

2015-01-01

This study proposes identification with nature as a pedagogical technique in teacher education for sustainability to facilitate commitment to care about nonhuman nature, such care being an important underpinning of an inclusive and hence sustainable human-nature relationship. 29 pre-service teachers participated in a series of learning activities…

Effects of low harmonics on tone identification in natural and vocoded speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chang; Azimi, Behnam; Tahmina, Qudsia; Hu, Yi

2012-11-01

This study investigated the contribution of low-frequency harmonics to identifying Mandarin tones in natural and vocoded speech in quiet and noisy conditions. Results showed that low-frequency harmonics of natural speech led to highly accurate tone identification; however, for vocoded speech, low-frequency harmonics yielded lower tone identification than stimuli with full harmonics, except for tone 4. Analysis of the correlation between tone accuracy and the amplitude-F0 correlation index suggested that "more" speech contents (i.e., more harmonics) did not necessarily yield better tone recognition for vocoded speech, especially when the amplitude contour of the signals did not co-vary with the F0 contour.

REVIEW: Towards a risk register for natural capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Mace, Georgina M; Hails, Rosemary S; Cryle, Philip; Harlow, Julian; Clarke, Stewart J

2015-06-01

Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk.We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset-benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset-benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern.The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset-benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). Synthesis and applications . With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset-benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the

Target identification of natural and traditional medicines with quantitative chemical proteomics approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jigang; Gao, Liqian; Lee, Yew Mun; Kalesh, Karunakaran A; Ong, Yong Siang; Lim, Jaehong; Jee, Joo-Eun; Sun, Hongyan; Lee, Su Seong; Hua, Zi-Chun; Lin, Qingsong

2016-06-01

Natural and traditional medicines, being a great source of drugs and drug leads, have regained wide interests due to the limited success of high-throughput screening of compound libraries in the past few decades and the recent technology advancement. Many drugs/bioactive compounds exert their functions through interaction with their protein targets, with more and more drugs showing their ability to target multiple proteins, thus target identification has an important role in drug discovery and biomedical research fields. Identifying drug targets not only furthers the understanding of the mechanism of action (MOA) of a drug but also reveals its potential therapeutic applications and adverse side effects. Chemical proteomics makes use of affinity chromatography approaches coupled with mass spectrometry to systematically identify small molecule-protein interactions. Although traditional affinity-based chemical proteomics approaches have made great progress in the identification of cellular targets and elucidation of MOAs of many bioactive molecules, nonspecific binding remains a major issue which may reduce the accuracy of target identification and may hamper the drug development process. Recently, quantitative proteomics approaches, namely, metabolic labeling, chemical labeling, or label-free approaches, have been implemented in target identification to overcome such limitations. In this review, we will summarize and discuss the recent advances in the application of various quantitative chemical proteomics approaches for the identification of targets of natural and traditional medicines. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Natural-technological risk assessment and management

Science.gov (United States)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

2004-01-01

...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

2018-03-01

The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

Natural radiation, radioactive waste and chemical risk determinants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, T.; Mustonen, R.; Edhwall, H.; Hansen, H.; Soerensen, A.; Stranden, E.

1990-01-01

Doses from natural radiation to the population in the Nordic countries are summarized, and man-made modifications of the natural radiation environment are discussed. An account is given for the radiological concequences of energy concervation by reduced ventilation. Risks from possible future releases of radioactivity from final depositories of spent nuclear fuel are compared to the risks from present natural radioactivity in the environment. The possibilities for comparison between chemical and radiological risks are discussed. 104 refs., 36 figs., 47 tabs

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

2015-11-01

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

2009-01-01

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

Public opinion about biofuels: The interplay between party identification and risk/benefit perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fung, Timothy K.F.; Choi, Doo Hun; Scheufele, Dietram A.; Shaw, Bret R.

2014-01-01

Using an experiment embedded within a representative survey, this study examined the interactive effect of party identification and risk/benefit perception on public opinion about biofuels. Democrats tended to be more supportive of biofuels than Republicans. However, the effect of party identification on opinion about biofuels varied when individuals considered the risk/benefit of biofuels in different domains. Individuals who reported greater affiliation with the Democratic Party were likely to support funding biofuels research when primed with the economic risks or the social/ethical benefits of biofuels. For those who considered the social/ethical benefits of biofuels, more self-identified Democrats were likely to support biofuels production and use. However, more self-identified Democrats were less supportive of biofuels production and use when they considered the political risks of biofuels. Implications are discussed. - Highlights: • We examined public opinion about biofuels policies. • Effect of risk/benefit perception varied across respondents' party identification. • Democrats favored more research when considering economic risks or social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels more when considering social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels less when considering political risks

Identification and management of patients at increased risk of osteoporotic fracture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kanis, J A; Cooper, C; Rizzoli, R

2017-01-01

where the risk of a subsequent fracture following a first fracture is high. Consequently, there is a significant treatment gap between those who would benefit from treatment and those who receive it, which urgently needs to be addressed so that the burden of disease can be reduced. Conclusions......Summary: Osteoporosis represents a significant and increasing healthcare burden in Europe, but most patients at increased risk of fracture do not receive medication, resulting in a large treatment gap. Identification of patients who are at particularly high risk will help clinicians target...... appropriate treatment more precisely and cost-effectively, and should be the focus of future research. Introduction: The purpose of the study was to review data on the identification and treatment of patients with osteoporosis at increased risk of fracture. Methods: A working group convened by the European...

Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinneraas, Bjoern [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biometry and Engineering, Box 7032, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, Caroline [Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, SE-171 82 Solna (Sweden); Nordin, Annika [National Veterinary Institute, Department of Wild Life, Fish and Environment, SE-751 89 Uppsala (Sweden)

2006-08-31

The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10{sup 5} cfu ml{sup -1} were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m{sup -3} were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m{sup -3}. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (author)

Validity of photo-identification technique to analyze natural markings in Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernesto Elgue

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Individual identification is useful for answering a variety of biological questions about animal life histories. Most of the techniques used to mark amphibians are invasive and can cause negative effects, compromising individual survivorship and biasing studies. Photo-identification consists in the identification of specimens based on photographic records of unique color-design patterns. This technique has been used with success in several amphibian species. Melanophryniscus montevidensis is an endangered anuran species inhabiting the Uruguayan Atlantic coast. The general pattern of coloration is black with red and yellow blotches on the belly. In this study, we validated the technique of photo-identification assisted by software for individual recognition in M. montevidensis using natural markings. Field trips were performed over 16 months during which, the ventral color pattern of specimens was photographed. The photos were edited and analyzed with the Wild-ID 1.0 software for photographic reconnaissance. An efficiency of 100% was obtained in the visual recognition and 90% in the detection of recaptures using the software. The use of photo-identification using natural marks is an effective technique in this species, because the color pattern of the belly was highly variable among individuals and remained unchanged in individuals over the 16 month period. In this evaluation the use of software for photo-identification was necessary for the treatment of large databases.

Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dankar Fida

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

EEMD-MUSIC-Based Analysis for Natural Frequencies Identification of Structures Using Artificial and Natural Excitations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Camarena-Martinez

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new EEMD-MUSIC- (ensemble empirical mode decomposition-multiple signal classification- based methodology to identify modal frequencies in structures ranging from free and ambient vibration signals produced by artificial and natural excitations and also considering several factors as nonstationary effects, close modal frequencies, and noisy environments, which are common situations where several techniques reported in literature fail. The EEMD and MUSIC methods are used to decompose the vibration signal into a set of IMFs (intrinsic mode functions and to identify the natural frequencies of a structure, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated and tested with synthetic signals and under real operating conditions. The experiments are focused on extracting the natural frequencies of a truss-type scaled structure and of a bridge used for both highway traffic and pedestrians. Results show the proposed methodology as a suitable solution for natural frequencies identification of structures from free and ambient vibration signals.

EEMD-MUSIC-Based Analysis for Natural Frequencies Identification of Structures Using Artificial and Natural Excitations

Science.gov (United States)

Amezquita-Sanchez, Juan P.; Romero-Troncoso, Rene J.; Osornio-Rios, Roque A.; Garcia-Perez, Arturo

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new EEMD-MUSIC- (ensemble empirical mode decomposition-multiple signal classification-) based methodology to identify modal frequencies in structures ranging from free and ambient vibration signals produced by artificial and natural excitations and also considering several factors as nonstationary effects, close modal frequencies, and noisy environments, which are common situations where several techniques reported in literature fail. The EEMD and MUSIC methods are used to decompose the vibration signal into a set of IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and to identify the natural frequencies of a structure, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated and tested with synthetic signals and under real operating conditions. The experiments are focused on extracting the natural frequencies of a truss-type scaled structure and of a bridge used for both highway traffic and pedestrians. Results show the proposed methodology as a suitable solution for natural frequencies identification of structures from free and ambient vibration signals. PMID:24683346

Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records.

Science.gov (United States)

Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary

2009-07-01

Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO'S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months' worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient's age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient's postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy.

Identification of cancer risk and associated behaviour: implications for social marketing campaigns for cancer prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kippen, Rebecca; James, Erica; Ward, Bernadette; Buykx, Penny; Shamsullah, Ardel; Watson, Wendy; Chapman, Kathy

2017-08-17

Community misconception of what causes cancer is an important consideration when devising communication strategies around cancer prevention, while those initiating social marketing campaigns must decide whether to target the general population or to tailor messages for different audiences. This paper investigates the relationships between demographic characteristics, identification of selected cancer risk factors, and associated protective behaviours, to inform audience segmentation for cancer prevention social marketing. Data for this cross-sectional study (n = 3301) are derived from Cancer Council New South Wales' 2013 Cancer Prevention Survey. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between respondent demographic characteristics and identification of each of seven cancer risk factors; demographic characteristics and practice of the seven 'protective' behaviours associated with the seven cancer risk factors; and identification of cancer risk factors and practising the associated protective behaviours, controlling for demographic characteristics. More than 90% of respondents across demographic groups identified sun exposure and smoking cigarettes as moderate or large cancer risk factors. Around 80% identified passive smoking as a moderate/large risk factor, and 40-60% identified being overweight or obese, drinking alcohol, not eating enough vegetables and not eating enough fruit. Women and older respondents were more likely to identify most cancer risk factors as moderate/large, and to practise associated protective behaviours. Education was correlated with identification of smoking as a moderate/large cancer risk factor, and with four of the seven protective behaviours. Location (metropolitan/regional) and country of birth (Australia/other) were weak predictors of identification and of protective behaviours. Identification of a cancer risk factor as moderate/large was a significant predictor for five out

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

The role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, J.S.

1982-01-01

The author places some prior natural hazards research into the context of risk from new technologies to show that some beneficial technologies increase the risk from natural hazards. He examines the role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards in a historical perspective, using examples from research on mountain hazards

Identification of minority compounds in natural ilmenites by X-ray absorption spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klepka, M.T.; Lawniczak-Jablonska, K.; Wolska, A.; Jablonski, M.

2010-01-01

Research highlights: → White pigment TiO 2 production process. → The principal component analysis using XANES. → Ilmenite accompanying chemical compounds identification. → Chemical binding of Mg in ilmenite depends on the climatic and geological conditions. -- Abstract: Natural ilmenites are used all over the world as raw materials in white pigment (TiO 2 ) production. Besides the FeTiO 3 in the raw material many other compounds are present. The chemical compounds based on the minority elements influence quality of the final product and are difficult to identify. The knowledge about chemical bonding of the minor elements enables to properly adjust chemical reactions during production processes and to improve quality of the final product. In this paper the X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) identification of the chemical compounds formed by Mg, Mn and Cr in natural ilmenites originating from different places is presented.

Early identification and intervention in children at risk for reading difficulties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Regtvoort, A.G.F.M.

2014-01-01

In pre-readers, a familial background of dyslexia and/or delayed emergent literacy should be considered a not-to-ignore risk signalling problems with learning to read. This thesis aims to study early identification and intervention in at-risk children shortly before or after the start of formal

Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

Science.gov (United States)

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

Using wavelet multi-resolution nature to accelerate the identification of fractional order system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yuan-Lu; Meng Xiao; Ding Ya-Qing

2017-01-01

Because of the fractional order derivatives, the identification of the fractional order system (FOS) is more complex than that of an integral order system (IOS). In order to avoid high time consumption in the system identification, the least-squares method is used to find other parameters by fixing the fractional derivative order. Hereafter, the optimal parameters of a system will be found by varying the derivative order in an interval. In addition, the operational matrix of the fractional order integration combined with the multi-resolution nature of a wavelet is used to accelerate the FOS identification, which is achieved by discarding wavelet coefficients of high-frequency components of input and output signals. In the end, the identifications of some known fractional order systems and an elastic torsion system are used to verify the proposed method. (paper)

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serghei Margulescu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

Utilization of natural indicators for borax identification in the Indonesian tofu

Science.gov (United States)

Purbaningtias, Tri Esti; Lestari, Intan Dwi; Wiyantoko, Bayu; Kurniawati, Puji; Sriadryani, Devi

2017-03-01

Borax has been found in food products i.e. on the Indonesian Tofu that is often consumed by people. Generally, the identification of borax in food products hard to do by the public. Indicators of natural materials will allow the public to identify the presence of borax in food easier. Qualitative test for borax on Indonesian Tofu showed purple cabbage and sappanwood are the effective natural indicators. The result of determining borax on Indonesian Tofu indicated natural indicator from purple cabbage had the smallest correction factor (with conventional indicators PP) about 4.8%. The results of the validation method for purple cabbage indicator in acid-base titration showed that the purple cabbage indicator is homogenous but unstable. The natural indicators of purple cabbage could not be used again after three days of extraction time based on the results of control chart.

RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

Science.gov (United States)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2017-07-01

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Risk identification in food safety: Strategy and outcomes of the EFSA emerging risks exchange network (EREN), 2010-2014

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costa, M. C.; Goumperis, T.; Andersson, W.

2017-01-01

should be considered emerging or not, and if it merited further consideration, such as generating data on the issue, starting a full risk assessment and/or consultation of other bodies. According to the emerging risks identification process set in place at EFSA, the issues discussed and found...

Determination of risk identification process employed by NHS for a PFI hospital project in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. E. Mohamed Ghazali

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Long-term concession contracts associated with Private Finance Initiative (PFI projects, such as National Health Service (NHS hospitals, are subject to substantial risks, which may not only emerge from project activities such as design and construction, but also from global issues beyond the control of project parties, such as commercial, legal and political risks. Therefore, the principal parties involved must manage risks effectively and efficiently, as early as the project initiation stage, in order to ensure a successful delivery. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk identification process of the NHS PFI hospital in the UK, as a case study, in order to determine the techniques used in risk identification, and their significance, based on estimated probabilities of occurrence. These objectives were achieved through interviews with key personnel within the NHS Trust involved. Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre-commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process.

Risk identification in the infrastructure construction industry : a supply chain case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Achard, P.O.; Nucciarelli, A.; Rosato, R.; Svensson, G.

2008-01-01

The objective of this article is to describe the risk identification within a supply chain of an infrastructure construction project. This research is based on a case study of risk management within a supply chain in the infrastructure construction industry. Data have been collected from an

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

Science.gov (United States)

Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ionita, Dan

2014-01-01

The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

Castaldi, A.

2013-12-01

Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply

Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, Anselm

2006-08-01

Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

2005-12-01

The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of natural indigo in historical textiles by GC-MS.

Science.gov (United States)

Degani, Laura; Riedo, Chiara; Chiantore, Oscar

2015-02-01

The possibility of successfully applying a common GC-MS procedure for identification in one step of all types of dyes from plants of unknown origin and from historical objects is particularly attractive due to the high separation efficiency of the capillary columns, the MS detection sensitivity and the reproducibility of results. In this work, GC-MS analysis, previously and successfully used for the characterization of anthraquinones, flavonoids and tannins from plant extracts and historical samples, has been tested on indigoid dyestuffs. An analytical procedure based on the silylating agent N,O-bis-(trimethylsilyl)trifluoroacetamide (BSTFA) with 1% trimethylchlorosilane (TMCS) was applied to pure molecules of indigotin and indirubin and to plant extracts of Indigofera tinctoria L. and Isatis tinctoria L. Preliminary tests have been done to establish the chromatographic conditions and the derivatization amounts most suitable for the simultaneous detection of indigoid molecules and of the other natural compounds, such as fatty acids, carboxylic acids and sugars, contained within the plant extracts. In order to assess the capacity and the sensitivity of the analytical procedure in typical archaeometric applications, wool samples dyed in the laboratory with indigo were analysed by mimicking the sample amounts typically available with historical objects. The electron ionization (EI) spectra of the main silylated derivatives of indigoid molecules obtained in this way constitute the necessary data set for the characterization of natural extracts and historical works of art. Subsequently, the procedure has been applied to historical samples for the detection of indigo and of other dyestuffs eventually contained in samples. Additional information, useful for restoration and preservation of works of art, could be also obtained on the nature of stains and smudges present on the sampled textile material. The GC-MS method turns out to be an efficient and fast analytical tool

Scorecard implementation improves identification of postpartum patients at risk for venous thromboembolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkin, Jill A; Lee, Colleen; Landsberger, Ellen; Chazotte, Cynthia; Bernstein, Peter S; Goffman, Dena

2016-07-01

To evaluate if an intensive educational intervention in the use of a standardized venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment tool (scorecard) improves physicians' identification and chemoprophylaxis of postpartum patients at risk for VTE. After implementation of a VTE scorecard and prior to an intensive educational intervention, postpartum patients (n = 140) were evaluated to assess scorecard completion, risk factors, and chemoprophylaxis. A performance improvement campaign focusing on patient safety, VTE prevention, and scorecard utilization was then conducted. Evaluation of the same parameters was subsequently performed for a similar group of patients (n = 133). Differences in scorecard utilization and risk assessment were tested for statistical significance. Population-at-risk rates were similar in both assessment periods (31.4% vs 28.6%; p = NS). The greatest risk factors included cesarean delivery, body mass index (BMI) >30 and age >35. Scorecard completion rates for all patients increased in the postintervention period (15.7% vs 67.7%; p scorecard completion rates for the at-risk population also improved (20% vs 79%; p risk with completed scorecards had higher prophylaxis rates than those at risk without scorecards (73% vs 25%; p = .03). At-risk patients with completed scorecards had 2.6 times more orders for chemoprophylaxis than at-risk patients without scorecards in both time periods (odds ratio [OR] = 8.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-22.8). Utilization of a VTE scorecard coupled with an educational intervention for health care providers increases detection and chemoprophylaxis orders for at-risk patients. Encouraging universal scorecard assessment standardizes identification and chemoprophylaxis of at-risk patients who were otherwise not perceived to be at risk. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

[Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

2016-12-01

According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kulygin, Valerii

2016-04-01

Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foppe, T.L.

1985-01-01

A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

Risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet: Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barlow, S. M.; Greig, J. B.; Bridges, J. W.

2002-01-01

the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is. hazard identification. hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard......, on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled. is also considered. (C) 2002 ILSI. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd....... All rights reserved....

Identification and determination of natural radioactive impurities in rare earth chlorides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, M.J.; Cen, Y.H.; Tang, T.Y.; Chang, J.X.

1988-01-01

227 Ac, 228 Th, 226 Ra, 210 Po and 210 Pb can be present at rare earth chlorides. A radiochemical procedure is presented for the identification and determination of natural radioactive impurities in rare earth chlorides. The determination limits for these radionuclides were 1.5x10 -4 to 3x10 -1 Bq/g. The relative standard deviations for determining 10 -2 Bq/g radionuclides were usually less than +-7%. (author) 9 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Asset Identification for Security Risk Assessment in Web Applications

OpenAIRE

Hisham M. Haddad; Brunil D. Romero

2009-01-01

As software applications become more complex they require more security, allowing them to reach an appropriate level of quality to manage information, and therefore achieving business objectives. Web applications represent one segment of software industry where security risk assessment is essential. Web engineering must address new challenges to provide new techniques and tools that guarantee high quality application development. This work focuses asset identification, the initial step in sec...

Hazard identification and risk assessment for biologics targeting the immune system.

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, Andrea B

2008-01-01

Biologic pharmaceuticals include a variety of products, such as monoclonal antibodies, fusion proteins and cytokines. Products in those classes include immunomodulatory biologics, which are intended to enhance or diminish the activity of the immune system. Immunomodulatory biologics have been approved by the U.S. FDA for a variety of indications, including cancer and inflammatory conditions. Prior to gaining approval for marketing, sponsoring companies for all types of products must demonstrate a product's safety in toxicology studies conducted in animals and show safety and efficacy in clinical trials conducted in patients. The overall goal of toxicology studies, which applies to immunomodulatory and other product types, is to identify the hazards that products pose to humans. Because biologics are generally highly selective for specific targets (receptors/epitopes), conducting toxicology studies in animal models with the target is essential. Such animals are referred to as pharmacologically relevant. Endpoints routinely included in toxicology studies, such as hematology, organ weight and histopathology, can be used to assess the effect of a product on the structure of the immune system. Additionally, specialized endpoints, such as immunophenotyping and immune function tests, can be used to define effects of immunomodulatory products on the immune system. Following hazard identification, risks posed to patients are assessed and managed. Risks can be managed through clinical trial design and risk communication, a practice that applies to immunomodulatory and other product types. Examples of risk management in clinical trial design include establishing a safe starting dose, defining the appropriate patient population and establishing appropriate patient monitoring. Risk communication starts during clinical trials and continues after product approval. A combination of hazard identification, risk assessment and risk management allows for drug development to proceed

Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klomp, Jeroen

2015-01-01

In this article, we explore the effect of large-scale natural disasters on sovereign default risk. We use a heterogeneous dynamic panel model including a set of more than 380 large-scale natural disasters for about forty emerging market countries in the period 1999-2010. After testing for the

Testing the impact on natural risks' awareness of visual communication through an exhibition

Science.gov (United States)

Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Mostert, Erik

2014-05-01

risk and demographics. In addition, the post-test included several satisfaction questions concerning the visual tools displayed in the exhibition. A statistical analysis of the changes between the pre- and post- tests allows to verify whether the exhibition has an impact on risk awareness or not. In order to deduce the attractiveness of each visual tool independently, the visitors' paths are tracked using RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technique, from which their time spent around certain visuals can be assessed. These results also help to analyze the changes in risk awareness measured by the pre-test/post-test design. Direct observation of visitors' reactions and behaviors completed the methodology. This research hence helps to assess which visual tools are more suitable to communicate such topics not only to a community as a whole, but also to its sub-categories (e.g. adults vs. children, people with experience of natural disasters vs. people without). Moreover, it provides methodological improvements concerning effectiveness research in the field of risk communication. The first results of this research will be presented and discussed.

IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

Identification and management of cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group (executive summary).

Science.gov (United States)

Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

2011-01-01

With the objectives of clarifying the concepts related to "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome" and "risk stratification" and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group presents an executive summary of a detailed analysis and position paper that offers a comprehensive and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The above concepts overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. However, there is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider ethnicity-related risk factors in order to appropriately evaluate all individuals in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiechen Tang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

OpenAIRE

V.G. Vygovskyy

2015-01-01

The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its conse...

Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

2010-01-01

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

Reality of Risk of Natural Disasters in Georgia and a Management Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Gaprindashvili, George; Tsereteli, Emil; Gobejishvili, Ramin; King, Lorenz; Gaprindashvili, Merab

2013-04-01

for tens of years. Moreover, the scientific research institutes of geography, geophysics at several universities and at the Georgian Academy of Sciences have accomplished other significant studies on natural hazards. In Georgia, an increased risk of catastrophes is caused by insufficient information between society and the authorities and persons responsible for mitigation. Urgent research tasks are the basic assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, the determination of their cause, and the development of special risk maps in GIS systems. This forms the base for developing a sustainable functioning monitoring and early warning system by the respective authorities.

Influence of the definition of acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery on incidence, patient identification, and identification of risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noyez, L.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery (RF) is a major complication and is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Early recognition and identification of risk factors for RF is therefore important. However, several definitions of RF are used. The intention of

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

2004-05-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motoh, Tsujimura

2004-01-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

Identification of risk products for fragrance contact allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Andersen, T F; Kjøller, M

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance-mix-positive ecz......BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance......-mix-positive eczema patients and two control groups, one consisting of 1,279 subjects selected as a random sample of the general population and the other consisting of 806 fragrance-mix-negative eczema patients. The identification of risk products was based on the patients' histories of rash to scented products....... Analysis of the associations between first-time rash caused by different specified product categories and fragrance mix sensitivity was performed using logistic regression. RESULTS: It was found that first-time rash caused by deodorant sprays and/or perfumes were related to fragrance contact allergy...

Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

Science.gov (United States)

Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

2012-12-01

Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

Guideline adherence for identification and hydration of high-risk hospital patients for contrast-induced nephropathy.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schilp, J.; Blok, C. de; Langelaan, M.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Wagner, C.

2014-01-01

Background: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common cause of acute renal failure in hospital patients. To prevent CIN, identification and hydration of high-risk patients is important. Prevention of CIN by hydration of high-risk patients was one of the themes to be implemented in the Dutch

Guideline adherence for identification and hydration of high-risk hospital patients for contrast-induced nephropathy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schilp, J.; de Blok, C.; Langelaan, M.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Wagner, C.

2014-01-01

Background: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common cause of acute renal failure in hospital patients. To prevent CIN, identification and hydration of high-risk patients is important. Prevention of CIN by hydration of high-risk patients was one of the themes to be implemented in the Dutch

Implanting inequality: empirical evidence of social and ethical risks of implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, Torin; Fisher, Jill A

2010-10-01

The aim of this study was to assess empirically the social and ethical risks associated with implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices. Qualitative research included observational studies in twenty-three U.S. hospitals that have implemented new patient identification systems and eighty semi-structured interviews about the social and ethical implications of new patient identification systems, including RFID implants. The study identified three primary social and ethical risks associated with RFID implants: (i) unfair prioritization of patients based on their participation in the system, (ii) diminished trust of patients by care providers, and (iii) endangerment of patients who misunderstand the capabilities of the systems. RFID implants may aggravate inequalities in access to care without any clear health benefits. This research underscores the importance of critically evaluating new healthcare technologies from the perspective of both normative ethics and empirical ethics.

Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

Moellerella wisconsensis: identification, natural antibiotic susceptibility and its dependency on the medium applied.

Science.gov (United States)

Stock, Ingo; Falsen, Enevold; Wiedemann, Bernd

2003-01-01

The present study establishes a data compilation on biochemical features and natural antibiotic susceptibilities of Moellerella wisconsensis strains. 17 moellerellae isolated from humans (n = 11), food (n = 5) and water (n = 1) were tested. Identification was carried out using two commercially available systems and conventional tests. MIC determinations of 74 antibiotics were performed applying a microdilution procedure in Cation-adjusted Mueller Hinton broth and IsoSensitest broth. M. wisconsensis was naturally sensitive to doxycycline, minocycline, all tested aminoglycosides, numerous beta-lactams, all fluoroquinolones, folate-pathway inhibitors, chloramphenicol and nitrofurantoin. Natural resistance was found with oxacillin, penicillin G, all tested macrolides, lincomycin, streptogramins, ketolides, glycopeptides, fusidic acid, linezolid and rifampicin. Medium-dependent differences in susceptibility affecting clinical assessment criteria were seen with tetracycline, clindamycin and fosfomycin. From the data of the present study it is possible that some moellerellae are misidentified as Klebsiella pneumoniae subsp. ozaenae.

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

Identification of high risk patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in a northern Greek population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karvounis Charalambos

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The percentage of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM patients who are in high risk for Sudden Death (SD constitutes only a minority of all HCM population but the incidence of SD in this subset is high (at least 5% annually. The identification of this small but important proportion of high risk HCM patients has been the clue in the clinical evaluation of these patients. Methods Our study cohort consisted from 123 patients with HCM who are currently followed up in our Institution. Five clinical risk factors were assessed: a family history of premature SD, unexplained syncope, Non Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia (NSVT on 24-h ECG monitoring, Abnormal Blood Pressure Response (ABPR during upright exercise testing and Maximum left ventricular Wall Thickness (MWT ≥30 mm. The purpose of our study was the identification of high risk HCM patients coming from Northern Greece. Results Fifteen patients (12.2% of the whole cohort had MWT ≥ 30 mm, 30 patients (24.4% had an ABPR to exercise, 17 patients (13.8% had episodes of NSVT in 24-h Holter monitoring, 17 patients (13.8% suffered from syncope, and 8 patients (6.5% had a positive family history of premature SD. Data analysis revealed that 74 patients (60.1% had none risk factor. Twenty four patients (19.5% had 1 risk factor, 17 patients (13.8% had 2 risk factors, 4 patients (3.25% had 3 risk factors, and 4 patients (3.25% had 4 risk factors, while none patient had 5 risk factors. Twenty five patients (20.3% had 2 or more risk factors. Conclusion This study for the first time confirms that, although a 60% of patients with HCM coming from a regional Greek population are in low risk for SD, a substantial proportion (almost 20% carries a high risk for SD justifying prophylactic therapy with amiodaron or ICD implantation.

The affect heuristic, mortality salience, and risk: domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Västfjäll, Daniel; Peters, Ellen; Slovic, Paul

2014-12-01

We examine how affect and accessible thoughts following a major natural disaster influence everyday risk perception. A survey was conducted in the months following the 2004 south Asian Tsunami in a representative sample of the Swedish population (N = 733). Respondents rated their experienced affect as well as the perceived risk and benefits of various everyday decision domains. Affect influenced risk and benefit perception in a way that could be predicted from both the affect-congruency and affect heuristic literatures (increased risk perception and stronger risk-benefit correlations). However, in some decision domains, self-regulation goals primed by the natural disaster predicted risk and benefit ratings. Together, these results show that affect, accessible thoughts and motivational states influence perceptions of risks and benefits. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Electronic aids to the identification of bats in flight and to their study under natural conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Watson, Andrew

1970-01-01

Positive identification of bats usually requires visual inspection at close range or for a bat to be held in the hand. There are many people, particularly conservationists, who would like to study bats in their natural environment without disturbing them. The task of preparing distribution maps is

Risk management of a fund for natural disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, C.

2003-04-01

Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0money borrowed at time t. For the initial model, we assume that the deterministic payments for risk transfer and debt are made at t=0. We determine c>0 at t=0 and then we try to pull at every moment the process to this objective. Multifractal models in geophysics are physically based stochastic models. A multiplicative cascade model fitted to a data set can be used for generation of synthetic sequences that resemble the original data in terms of its scaling properties. Since recent years, uncertainty concepts based on multifractal fields are being applied to the development of techniques to calculate marginal and conditional probabilities of an extreme rainfall event in a determined zone. As initial point to the development of the model, a multifractal model for extreme rainfall events will be used as part of the input for the stochastic control model. A theme for further research is linking more warning systems to the model. Keywords: risk management, stochastic control, multifractal measures, multiplicative cascades, heavy rainfall events.

Earth observation technologies in service to the cultural landscape of Cyprus: risk identification and assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cuca, Branka; Tzouvaras, Marios; Agapiou, Athos; Lysandrou, Vasiliki; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Nisantzi, Argyro; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.

2016-08-01

The Cultural landscapes are witnesses of "the creative genius, social development and the imaginative and spiritual vitality of humanity. They are part of our collective identity", as it is internationally defined and accepted (ICOMOSUNESCO). The need for their protection, management and inclusion in the territorial policies has already been widely accepted and pursued. There is a great number of risks to which the cultural landscapes are exposed, arising mainly from natural (both due to slow geo-physical phenomena as well as hazards) and anthropogenic causes (e.g. urbanisation pressure, agriculture, landscape fragmentation etc.). This paper explores to what extent Earth Observation (EO) technologies can contribute to identify and evaluate the risks to which Cultural Landscapes of Cyprus are exposed, taking into consideration specific phenomena, such as land movements and soil erosion. The research of the paper is illustrated as part of the activities carried out in the CLIMA project - "Cultural Landscape risk Identification, Management and Assessment". It aims to combine the fields of remote sensing technologies, including Sentinel data, and monitoring of cultural landscape for its improved protection and management. Part of this approach will be based on the use of InSAR techniques in order to monitor the temporal evolution of deformations through the detection and measurement of the effects of surface movements caused by various factors. The case study selected for Cyprus is the Nea Paphos archeological site and historical center of Paphos, which are listed as UNESCO World Heritage sites. The interdisciplinary approach adopted in this research was useful to identify major risks affecting the landscape of Cyprus and to classify the most suitable EO methods to assess and map such risks.

The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Miccadei

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

Improving Early Identification and Intervention for Children at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Rotholz, David A; Kinsman, Anne M; Lacy, Kathi K; Charles, Jane

2017-02-01

To provide an example of a successful, novel statewide effort to increase early identification of young children at risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using a 2-tiered screening process with enhanced quality assessment, interagency policy collaboration and coordination. The South Carolina Act Early Team (SCAET) provided focused collaboration among leaders representing state agencies, universities, health care systems, private organizations, and families to improve quality of life for children with ASD. Specific focus was on implementing policy changes and training to result in earlier identification and home-based behavioral intervention for young children at risk for ASD. Policy changes, training, and modified state agency practices were accomplished. Presumptive eligibility, on the basis of a 2-tiered screening process was implemented by BabyNet (South Carolina's Early Intervention Program) in collaboration with the lead agency for developmental disability services. There was a fivefold increase in children eligible for early intensive behavioral intervention without waiting for a diagnosis of ASD, avoiding long waits for diagnostic evaluations. Only 16 children (2.5%) were later found not to have ASD from a comprehensive evaluation. Improvements in early identification and intervention are feasible through collaborative policy change. The South Carolina Act Early Team and its key stakeholders committed to improving outcomes for this population used existing tools and methods in new ways to improve early identification of children with ASD and to make available evidence-based intervention services. This example should be replicable in other states with key stakeholders working collaboratively for the benefit of young children with ASD. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Falakh Fajrul

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Water Treatment Plant (WTP is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Falakh, Fajrul; Setiani, Onny

2018-02-01

Water Treatment Plant (WTP) is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

Screening Protocol for Early Identification of Brazilian Children at Risk for Dyslexia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giseli D. Germano

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Early identification of students at risk of dyslexia has been an educational challenge in the past years. This research had two main goals. First, we aimed to develop a screening protocol for early identification of Brazilian children at risk for dyslexia; second, we aimed to identify the predictive variables of this protocol using Principal Component Analysis. The major step involved in developing this protocol was the selection of variables, which were chosen based on the literature review and linguistic criteria. The screening protocol was composed of seven cognitive-linguistic skills: Letter naming; Phonological Awareness (which comprises the following subtests: Rhyme production, Rhyme identification, Syllabic segmentation, Production of words from a given phoneme, Phonemic Synthesis, and Phonemic analysis; Phonological Working memory, Rapid naming Speed; Silent reading; Reading of words and non-words; and Auditory Comprehension of sentences from pictures. A total of 149 children, aged from 6 years to 6 and 11, of both genders who were enrolled in the 1st grade of elementary public schools were submitted to the screening protocol. Principal Component Analysis revealed four factors, accounting for 64.45% of the variance of the Protocol variables: first factor (“pre-reading”, second factor (“decoding”, third factor (“Reading”, and fourth factor “Auditory processing.” The factors found corroborate those reported in the National and International literature and have been described as early signs of dyslexia and reading problems.

Rethink potential risks of toxic emissions from natural gas and oil mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qingmin

2018-09-01

Studies have showed the increasing environmental and public health risks of toxic emissions from natural gas and oil mining, which have become even worse as fracking is becoming a dominant approach in current natural gas extraction. However, governments and communities often overlook the serious air pollutants from oil and gas mining, which are often quantified lower than the significant levels of adverse health effects. Therefore, we are facing a challenging dilemma: how could we clearly understand the potential risks of air toxics from natural gas and oil mining. This short study aims at the design and application of simple and robust methods to enhance and improve current understanding of the becoming worse toxic air emissions from natural gas and oil mining as fracking is becoming the major approach. Two simple ratios, the min-to-national-average and the max-to-national-average, are designed and applied to each type of air pollutants in a natural gas and oil mining region. The two ratios directly indicate how significantly high a type of air pollutant could be due to natural gas and oil mining by comparing it to the national average records, although it may not reach the significant risks of adverse health effects according to current risk screening methods. The min-to-national-average and the max-to-national-average ratios can be used as a direct and powerful method to describe the significance of air pollution by comparing it to the national average. The two ratios are easy to use for governments, stakeholders, and the public to pay enough attention on the air pollutants from natural gas and oil mining. The two ratios can also be thematically mapped at sampled sites for spatial monitoring, but spatial mitigation and analysis of environmental and health risks need other measurements of environmental and demographic characteristics across a natural gas and oil mining area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of natural red and purple dyes on textiles by Fiber-optics Reflectance Spectroscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Maynez-Rojas, M A; Casanova-González, E; Ruvalcaba-Sil, J L

2017-05-05

Understanding dye chemistry and dye processes is an important issue for studies of cultural heritage collections and science conservation. Fiber Optics Reflectance Spectroscopy (FORS) is a powerful technique, which allows preliminary dye identification, causing no damage or mechanical stress on the artworks subjected to analysis. Some information related to specific light scattering and absorption can be obtained in the UV-visible and infrared range (300-1400nm) and it is possible to discriminate the kind of support fiber in the near infrared region (1000-2500nm). The main spectral features of natural dye fibers samples, such as reflection maxima, inflection points and reflection minima, can be used in the differentiation of various red natural dyes. In this work, a set of dyed references were manufactured following Mexican recipes with red dyes (cochineal and brazilwood) in order to determine the characteristic FORS spectral features of fresh and aged dyed fibers for their identification in historical pieces. Based on these results, twenty-nine indigenous textiles belonging to the National Commission for the Development of Indigenous People of Mexico were studied. Cochineal and brazilwood were successfully identified by FORS in several pieces, as well as the mixture of cochineal and indigo for purple color. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Natural Disasters and Safety Risks at Nuclear Power Stations

Science.gov (United States)

Tutnova, T.

2012-04-01

In the aftermath of Fukushima natural-technological disaster the global opinion on nuclear energy divided even deeper. While Germany, Italy and the USA are currently reevaluating their previous plans on nuclear growth, many states are committed to expand nuclear energy output. In China and France, where the industry is widely supported by policymakers, there is little talk about abandoning further development of nuclear energy. Moreover, China displays the most remarkable pace of nuclear development in the world: it is responsible for 40% of worldwide reactors under construction, and aims at least to quadruple its nuclear capacity by 2020. In these states the consequences of Fukushima natural-technological accident will probably result in safety checks and advancement of new reactor technologies. Thus, China is buying newer reactor design from the USA which relies on "passive safety systems". It means that emergency power generators, crucial for reactor cooling in case of an accident, won't depend on electricity, so that tsunami won't disable them like it happened in the case of Fukushima. Nuclear energy managed to draw lessons from previous nuclear accidents where technological and human factors played crucial role. But the Fukushima lesson shows that the natural hazards, nevertheless, were undervalued. Though the ongoing technological advancements make it possible to increase the safety of nuclear power plants with consideration of natural risks, it is not just a question of technology improvement. A necessary action that must be taken is the reevaluation of the character and sources of the potential hazards which natural disasters can bring to nuclear industry. One of the examples is a devastating impact of more than one natural disaster happening at the same time. This subject, in fact, was not taken into account before, while it must be a significant point in planning sites for new nuclear power plants. Another important lesson unveiled is that world nuclear

A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

Science.gov (United States)

Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

2009-12-01

VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS: LITERATURE REVIEW AND A NEW CATEGORIZATION

OpenAIRE

Er Kara, Merve; Oktay Fırat, Seniye Ümit

2017-01-01

Identification of risks is the first step to build a resilient and sustainable supply chain and develop proactive risk management strategies. Supply chains contain numerous risks with different forms, probabilities and impacts. Supply chain risks have a multi-dimensional nature and can result from a wide variety of sources including demand and supply variability, poor performing suppliers, price fluctuations, dynamic consumer markets, global economic uncertainty, and even unexpected events su...

A pragmatics' view of patient identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichtner, Valentina; Galliers, Julia R; Wilson, Stephanie

2010-10-01

Patient identification is a central safety critical aspect of healthcare work. Most healthcare activities require identification of patients by healthcare staff, often in connection with the use of patient records. Indeed, the increasing reliance on electronic systems makes the correct matching of patients with their records a keystone for patient safety. Most research on patient identification has been carried out in hospital settings. The aim was to investigate the process of identification of patients and their records in the context of a primary healthcare clinic. A qualitative field study was carried out at a Walk-In Centre in London (UK). The identification of patients and their records was found to be a context-dependent process, both when formalised in procedures and when relying on informal practices. The authors discovered a range of formal and informal patient identifiers were used in this setting, depending on the task at hand. The theoretical lens of Pragmatics was applied to offer an explanation of this identification process. Context provides the cognitive scaffolding for a process of 'suitably constrained guesswork' about the identity of patients and their records. Implications for practice and for system design are discussed. Practitioners and technology designers should be aware of the risk for misidentifications inherent in this natural information processing activity.

Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

2018-01-01

In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munganahalli, D.

1996-12-31

Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Simultaneous identification of synthetic and natural dyes in different food samples by UPLC-MS

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, Badal Kumar; Mathiyalagan, Siva; Dalavai, Ramesh; Ling, Yong-Chien

2017-11-01

Fast foods and variety food items are populating among the food lovers. To improve the appearance of the food product in surviving gigantic competitive environment synthetic or natural food dyes are added to food items and beverages. Although regulatory bodies permit addition of natural colorants due to its safe and nontoxic nature in food, synthetic dyes are stringently controlled in all food products due to their toxicity by regulatory bodies. Artificial colors are need certification from the regulatory bodies for human consumption. To analyze food dyes in different food samples many analytical techniques are available like high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), thin layer chromatography (TLC), spectroscopic and gas chromatographic methods. However all these reported methods analyzed only synthetic dyes or natural dyes. Not a single method has analyzed both synthetic and natural dyes in a single run. In this study a robust ultra-performance liquid chromatographic method for simultaneous identification of 6 synthetic dyes (Tartrazine, Indigo carmine, Briliant blue, Fast green, malachite green, sunset yellow) and one natural dye (Na-Cu-Chlorophyllin) was developed using acquitic UPLC system equipped with Mass detector and acquity UPLC HSS T3 column (1.8 μm, 2.1 × 50 mm, 100Å). All the dyes were separated and their masses were determined through fragments’ masses analyses.

Efficient Discovery of De-identification Policies Through a Risk-Utility Frontier.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Weiyi; Heatherly, Raymond; Ding, Xiaofeng; Li, Jiuyong; Malin, Bradley

2013-01-01

Modern information technologies enable organizations to capture large quantities of person-specific data while providing routine services. Many organizations hope, or are legally required, to share such data for secondary purposes (e.g., validation of research findings) in a de-identified manner. In previous work, it was shown de-identification policy alternatives could be modeled on a lattice, which could be searched for policies that met a prespecified risk threshold (e.g., likelihood of re-identification). However, the search was limited in several ways. First, its definition of utility was syntactic - based on the level of the lattice - and not semantic - based on the actual changes induced in the resulting data. Second, the threshold may not be known in advance. The goal of this work is to build the optimal set of policies that trade-off between privacy risk (R) and utility (U), which we refer to as a R-U frontier. To model this problem, we introduce a semantic definition of utility, based on information theory, that is compatible with the lattice representation of policies. To solve the problem, we initially build a set of policies that define a frontier. We then use a probability-guided heuristic to search the lattice for policies likely to update the frontier. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we perform an empirical analysis with the Adult dataset of the UCI Machine Learning Repository. We show that our approach can construct a frontier closer to optimal than competitive approaches by searching a smaller number of policies. In addition, we show that a frequently followed de-identification policy (i.e., the Safe Harbor standard of the HIPAA Privacy Rule) is suboptimal in comparison to the frontier discovered by our approach.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Health and Safety Approach JSA (Job Safety Analysis) in Plantation Company

Science.gov (United States)

Sugarindra, Muchamad; Ragil Suryoputro, Muhammad; Tiya Novitasari, Adi

2017-06-01

Plantation company needed to identify hazard and perform risk assessment as an Identification of Hazard and Risk Assessment Crime and Safety which was approached by using JSA (Job Safety Analysis). The identification was aimed to identify the potential hazards that might be the risk of workplace accidents so that preventive action could be taken to minimize the accidents. The data was collected by direct observation to the workers concerned and the results were recorded on a Job Safety Analysis form. The data were as forklift operator, macerator worker, worker’s creeper, shredder worker, workers’ workshop, mechanical line worker, trolley cleaning workers and workers’ crepe decline. The result showed that shredder worker value was 30 and had the working level with extreme risk with the risk value range was above 20. So to minimize the accidents could provide Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) which were appropriate, information about health and safety, the company should have watched the activities of workers, and rewards for the workers who obey the rules that applied in the plantation.

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

Science.gov (United States)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

2007-08-15

Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, Primoz; Thaler, Marko; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor; Poredos, Alojz

2007-01-01

Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

OpenAIRE

Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

2014-01-01

Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of natural disasters in the course of selection of nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Weicheng; Ai Guigen

1995-01-01

Natural disasters are calamities which bring about enormous damage to human beings and their accommodations and equipment. Based on the research of disaster risk and example study of volcanism, we tried to carry out the risk assessment of natural disasters which potentially occur in the candidate area of nuclear waste disposal by three steps of analyses, defining the most frequent occurring area of disasters, determining the parameters of risk assessment and dividing the most dangerous site and risk grades

What are the benefits and risks of fitting patients with radiofrequency identification devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, Mark; Adida, Ben; Mandl, Kenneth; Kohane, Isaac; Halamka, John

2007-11-27

In 2004, the United States Food and Drug Administration approved a radiofrequency identification (RFID) device that is implanted under the skin of the upper arm of patients and that stores the patient's medical identifier. When a scanner is passed over the device, the identifier is displayed on the screen of an RFID reader. An authorized health professional can then use the identifier to access the patient's clinical information, which is stored in a separate, secure database. Such RFID devices may have many medical benefits--such as expediting identification of patients and retrieval of their medical records. But critics of the technology have raised several concerns, including the risk of the patient's identifying information being used for nonmedical purposes.

Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stevens, R.S.P.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Melenberg, B.

2011-01-01

Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge

Identification of Risk Factors Associated with Transmission of Plague Disease in Eastern Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyirenda, Stanley S; Hang'ombe, Bernard M; Machang'u, Robert; Mwanza, Jackson; Kilonzo, Bukheti S

2017-09-01

Plague is a fatal, primarily rodent-flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis . The identification of risk factors of plague was investigated through questionnaire interview and conducting focus group discussion (FGD) in Sinda and Nyimba districts of eastern Zambia. A total of 104 questionnaires were administered to individual respondents and 20 groups consisting of 181 discussants, which comprised FGD team in this study. The study revealed that trapping, transportation, and preparation of rodents for food exposed the community to rodent and their fleas suggesting that plague may have occurred primarily by either flea bites or contact with infected wild rodents. The study also revealed that most people in communities consumed rodents as part of their regular diet; therefore, contact with small wild mammals was a common practice. The mode of transportation of freshly trapped rodents, in particular, carcasses risked human to flea bites. Questionnaire respondents (75%) and FGD discussants (55%) indicated that trappers preferred to carry rodent carcasses in small bags, whereas 55.8% and 20% respectively, reported hunters carrying carcasses in their pockets. Carrying of carcass skewers on trappers' shoulders was reported by 38.4% and 20% of individual respondents and FGD, respectively. All these activities were exposing humans to rodents and their fleas, the natural reservoirs and vectors of plague, respectively. This study also showed that there is a statistically significant (χ 2 = 4.6878, P < 0.05), between digging of rodents from their burrows and the presence of fleas on the hunter's bodies or clothes, which exposes humans to potentially flea bites in an enzootic cycle.

Physics-Based Identification, Modeling and Risk Management for Aeroelastic Flutter and Limit-Cycle Oscillations (LCO), Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed research program will develop a physics-based identification, modeling and risk management infrastructure for aeroelastic transonic flutter and...

An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

2013-07-01

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

Laser Scanning Systems and Techniques in Rockfall Source Identification and Risk Assessment: A Critical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Fanos, Ali Mutar; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2018-04-01

Rockfall poses risk to people, their properties and to transportation ways in mountainous and hilly regions. This catastrophe shows various characteristics such as vast distribution, sudden occurrence, variable magnitude, strong fatalness and randomicity. Therefore, prediction of rockfall phenomenon both spatially and temporally is a challenging task. Digital Terrain model (DTM) is one of the most significant elements in rockfall source identification and risk assessment. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is the most advanced effective technique to derive high-resolution and accurate DTM. This paper presents a critical overview of rockfall phenomenon (definition, triggering factors, motion modes and modeling) and LiDAR technique in terms of data pre-processing, DTM generation and the factors that can be obtained from this technique for rockfall source identification and risk assessment. It also reviews the existing methods that are utilized for the evaluation of the rockfall trajectories and their characteristics (frequency, velocity, bouncing height and kinetic energy), probability, susceptibility, hazard and risk. Detail consideration is given on quantitative methodologies in addition to the qualitative ones. Various methods are demonstrated with respect to their application scales (local and regional). Additionally, attention is given to the latest improvement, particularly including the consideration of the intensity of the phenomena and the magnitude of the events at chosen sites.

Identification of At-Risk Youth by Suicide Screening in a Pediatric Emergency Department.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, Elizabeth D; Cwik, Mary; Van Eck, Kathryn; Goldstein, Mitchell; Alfes, Clarissa; Wilson, Mary Ellen; Virden, Jane M; Horowitz, Lisa M; Wilcox, Holly C

2017-02-01

The pediatric emergency department (ED) is a critical location for the identification of children and adolescents at risk for suicide. Screening instruments that can be easily incorporated into clinical practice in EDs to identify and intervene with patients at increased suicide risk is a promising suicide prevention strategy and patient safety objective. This study is a retrospective review of the implementation of a brief suicide screen for pediatric psychiatric ED patients as standard of care. The Ask Suicide Screening Questions (ASQ) was implemented in an urban pediatric ED for patients with psychiatric presenting complaints. Nursing compliance rates, identification of at-risk patients, and sensitivity for repeated ED visits were evaluated using medical records from 970 patients. The ASQ was implemented with a compliance rate of 79 %. Fifty-three percent of the patients who screened positive (237/448) did not present to the ED with suicide-related complaints. These identified patients were more likely to be male, African American, and have externalizing behavior diagnoses. The ASQ demonstrated a sensitivity of 93 % and specificity of 43 % to predict return ED visits with suicide-related presenting complaints within 6 months of the index visit. Brief suicide screening instruments can be incorporated into standard of care in pediatric ED settings. Such screens can identify patients who do not directly report suicide-related presenting complaints at triage and who may be at particular risk for future suicidal behavior. Results have the potential to inform suicide prevention strategies in pediatric EDs.

The Identification of Seniors at Risk screening tool is useful for predicting acute readmissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosted, Elizabeth; Schultz, Martin; Dynesen, Helle

2014-01-01

. Patients ≥ 65 years treated during a 14-day period were included. Their mean age was 78 years. Screening with the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) was performed (n = 198) by the Mobile Geriatric Team (MGT). The patients' medical journals were assessed retrospectively by the SG to determine any need...

Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

2012-01-01

This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

What are the benefits and risks of fitting patients with radiofrequency identification devices.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Levine

2007-11-01

Full Text Available In 2004, the United States Food and Drug Administration approved a radiofrequency identification (RFID device that is implanted under the skin of the upper arm of patients and that stores the patient's medical identifier. When a scanner is passed over the device, the identifier is displayed on the screen of an RFID reader. An authorized health professional can then use the identifier to access the patient's clinical information, which is stored in a separate, secure database. Such RFID devices may have many medical benefits--such as expediting identification of patients and retrieval of their medical records. But critics of the technology have raised several concerns, including the risk of the patient's identifying information being used for nonmedical purposes.

Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the concept of a multifunctional dike has already often been implemented, and has been identified as a promising climate adaptation measure. In a multifunctional dike, functions like urban development, transport infrastructure, recreation, agriculture or nature are deliberately combined with its primary flood protection function. This means that the design must be based on the requirements and life span of all different functions, while in a monofunctional dike only the flood protection function is considered. By accommodating other functions, a multifunctional dike may easier fit into, or even contribute to the quality of the landscape. Moreover, these other functions may help in financing the flood protection works, but governance is more complicated. To avoid costly adjustments forthcoming from changed safety standards, incorporation of multiple functions can require a more “robust” flood defence than a monofunctional flood defence. A robust flood defence can withstand more extreme situations than required by the present safety standards, and has a substantially lower flooding probability. Therefore, a multifunctional dike may be attractive in view of the uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change and a changing world. Moreover, it will result in reduced flood risk. As part of the Dutch Delta programme, several explorative studies on multifunctional dikes were initiated. Most studies focused on urban areas, but also in the rural area interest emerged for multifunctional dikes, e.g. for the integration of salt marshes into the flood defences. Marshes provide valuable habitat for vegetation and invertebrate species, and are important for wading birds. Furthermore, under condition of abundant sediment availability they can keep pace with sea level rise. Explorative modelling results indicate that vegetated forelands affect wave heights, even under extreme conditions. However, the inclusion of a vegetated

Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russo, Paola; Parisi, Fulvio

2016-01-01

Natural-gas pipeline accidents mostly result in major damage even to buildings located far away. Therefore, proper safety distances should be observed in land use planning to ensure target safety levels for both existing and new buildings. In this paper, a quantitative risk assessment procedure is presented for the estimation of the annual probability of direct structural damage to reinforced concrete buildings associated with high-pressure natural-gas pipeline explosions. The procedure is based on Monte Carlo simulation and takes into account physical features of blast generation and propagation, as well as damage to reinforced concrete columns. The natural-gas jet release process and the flammable cloud size are estimated through SLAB one-dimensional integral model incorporating a release rate model. The explosion effects are evaluated by a Multi-Energy Method. Damage to reinforced concrete columns is predicted by means of pressure–impulse diagrams. The conditional probability of damage was estimated at multiple pressure–impulse levels, allowing blast fragility surfaces to be derived at different performance limit states. Finally, blast risk was evaluated and allowed the estimation of minimum pipeline-to-building safety distances for risk-informed urban planning. The probabilistic procedure presented herein may be used for performance-based design/assessment of buildings and to define the path of new natural-gas pipeline networks. - Highlights: • The safety of buildings against blast loads due to pipeline accidents is assessed. • A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is presented for natural-gas pipelines. • The annual risk of collapse of reinforced concrete building columns is evaluated. • Monte Carlo simulation was carried out considering both pipeline and column features. • A risk-targeted safety distance is proposed for blast strength class 9.

A Hypothesis: Could Portable Natural Grass be a Risk Factor for Knee Injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Orchard, John; Rodas, Gil; Til, Lluis; ArdevÒl, Jordi; Chivers, Ian

2008-01-01

Previous study has shown a likely link between increased shoe- surface traction and risk of knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury. Portable natural grass systems are being used more often in sport, but no study to date has investigated their relative safety. By their nature, they must have high resistance to falling apart and therefore newly laid systems may be at risk of creating excessive shoe-surface traction. This study describes two clusters of knee injuries (particularly non-contact ACL injuries), each occurring to players of one professional football team at single venue, using portable grass, in a short space of time. The first series included two ACL injuries, one posterolateral complex disruption and one lateral ligament tear occurring in two rugby league games on a portable bermudagrass surface in Brisbane, Australia. The second series included four non-contact ACL injuries over a period of ten weeks in professional soccer games on a portable Kentucky bluegrass/perennial ryegrass surface in Barcelona, Spain. Possible intrinsic risk factors are discussed but there was no common risk shared by the players. Although no measures of traction were made at the Brisbane venue, average rotational traction was measured towards the end of the injury cluster at Camp Nou, Barcelona, to be 48 Nm. Chance undoubtedly had a part to play in these clusters, but the only obvious common risk factor was play on a portable natural grass surface soon after it was laid. Further study is required to determine whether portable natural grass systems may exhibit high shoe-surface traction soon after being laid and whether this could be a risk factor for knee injury. Key pointsExcessive shoe-surface traction is a hypothesised risk factor for knee ligament injuries, including anterior cruciate ligament injuries.Portable natural grass systems (by their nature in order to prevent grass rolls or squares from falling apart) will tend to exhibit high resistance to tearing when first

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

Identification, classification, and discrimination of agave syrups from natural sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy and HPAEC-PAD.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellado-Mojica, Erika; López, Mercedes G

2015-01-15

Agave syrups are gaining popularity as new natural sweeteners. Identification, classification and discrimination by infrared spectroscopy coupled to chemometrics (NIR-MIR-SIMCA-PCA) and HPAEC-PAD of agave syrups from natural sweeteners were achieved. MIR-SIMCA-PCA allowed us to classify the natural sweeteners according to their natural source. Natural syrups exhibited differences in the MIR spectra region 1500-900 cm(-1). The agave syrups displayed strong absorption in the MIR spectra region 1061-1,063 cm(-1), in agreement with their high fructose content. Additionally, MIR-SIMCA-PCA allowed us to differentiate among syrups from different Agave species (Agavetequilana and Agavesalmiana). Thin-layer chromatography and HPAEC-PAD revealed glucose, fructose, and sucrose as the principal carbohydrates in all of the syrups. Oligosaccharide profiles showed that A. tequilana syrups are mainly composed of fructose (>60%) and fructooligosaccharides, while A. salmiana syrups contain more sucrose (28-32%). We conclude that MIR-SIMCA-PCA and HPAEC-PAD can be used to unequivocally identify and classified agave syrups. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

Natural gas for electric power generation: Strategic issues, risks and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linderman, C.

1992-01-01

Natural gas is again being regarded as a significant fuel for electric power generation. It was once a predominant fuel for utilities in gas-producing areas, but natural gas consumption declined greatly after the 1973 oil shock because of reduced electricity demand and increased coal and nuclear generation. Moreover, wellhead price and other forms of regulation produced gas shortages in the 1970s. The resurgence of natural gas in future resource plans stems from its inherent ideal fuel characteristics: short lead time; low capital costs; small increments of modular capacity; delivered close to load centers; environmentally benign, preferable to oil and coal; and potential for high thermal efficiency in gas turbines. Natural gas, if available and attractively priced, is an ideal fuel for electric power generation. No other fuel shares these attractive characteristics, and utilities, facing higher than expected load growth, are relying on an increasing proportion of gas-fired combustion turbines, combined cycle plants, and cogeneration to meet a growing, yet uncertain, future demand for electricity. Despite these desirable operating characteristics, the varied past and uncertain future of natural gas markets raise legitimate concerns about the riskiness of current utility natural gas strategies. This report, which summarizes the major findings from research efforts, is intended to help utility decision-makers understand the full range of risks they face with natural gas electric power generation and to identify actions they can take to mitigate those risks

DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Norcross, Jason; Steinberg, Susan; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John

2011-01-01

The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

Identification and communication of uncertainties of phenomenological models in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

2001-11-01

This report aims at presenting a view upon uncertainty analysis of phenomenological models with an emphasis on the identification and documentation of various types of uncertainties and assumptions in the modelling of the phenomena. In an uncertainty analysis, it is essential to include and document all unclear issues, in order to obtain a maximal coverage of unresolved issues. This holds independently on their nature or type of the issues. The classification of uncertainties is needed in the decomposition of the problem and it helps in the identification of means for uncertainty reduction. Further, an enhanced documentation serves to evaluate the applicability of the results to various risk-informed applications. (au)

Coping strategies, stress and risk perception in a natural and industrial catastrophe risk situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Vasquez, E.

1998-01-01

People are exposed to different environmental risks, their manifestations harm people according to the magnitude, intensity and the number of people concerned. This subject is very ample, therefore we consider only two kinds of risks: the natural risks (especially earthquakes) that have always threatened humanity, and the industrial risks that characterise our modern society. We are interested in risk perception, stress and coping strategies in these two kinds of extreme situations. We concentrate our study on two Mexican events: an industrial explosion accident in 1984 and 1985 (big earthquake, both devastated big urban zones. The consequences were enormous at all levels: personal, psychological, social, political and economical. Facing risk situations people can have stress reactions when a sign of danger appears. According to Jean RIVOLIER (1994), these situations must not be confounded with banal events of everyday life. Stress in those cases is not the stress we confront everyday, so people have to apply other strategies to face she stress and the incidents of the kind of extreme situations. To tackle our subject we are going to review some concepts used in our study: stress, coping strategies and risk perception. (author)

Relationship between age at natural menopause and risk of heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Iffat; Åkesson, Agneta; Wolk, Alicja

2015-01-01

We investigated whether younger age at natural menopause confers a risk of heart failure. We also examined a possible modifying effect of tobacco smoking. This study used the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort; 22,256 postmenopausal women with information on age at natural menopause were followed from 1997 through 2011. First event of heart failure was ascertained through the Swedish National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. During a mean follow-up of 13 years, we ascertained 2,532 first events of heart failure hospitalizations and deaths. The mean age at menopause was 51 years. Early natural menopause (40-45 y), compared with menopause at ages 50 to 54 years, was significantly associated with heart failure (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.64). In analyses stratified by smoking status, similar HRs were observed for this age group among never smokers (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.66) and ever smokers (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.78). Among ever smokers, increased incidence (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.47) of heart failure could be detected even among those who entered menopause at ages 46 to 49 years. We found a significant interaction between age at natural menopause and smoking (P = 0.019). This study indicates that women who experience early natural menopause are at increased risk for developing heart failure and that smoking can modify the association by increasing the risk even among women who enter menopause around ages 46 to 49 years.

Drug Target Identification and Elucidation of Natural Inhibitors for : An Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surya Narayan Rath

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Environmental microbes like Bordetella petrii has been established as a causative agent for various infectious diseases in human. Again, development of drug resistance in B. petrii challenged to combat against the infection. Identification of potential drug target and proposing a novel lead compound against the pathogen has a great aid and value. In this study, bioinformatics tools and technology have been applied to suggest a potential drug target by screening the proteome information of B. petrii DSM 12804 (accession No. PRJNA28135 from genome database of National Centre for Biotechnology information. In this regards, the inhibitory effect of nine natural compounds like ajoene (Allium sativum, allicin (A. sativum, cinnamaldehyde (Cinnamomum cassia, curcumin (Curcuma longa, gallotannin (active component of green tea and red wine, isoorientin (Anthopterus wardii, isovitexin (A. wardii, neral (Melissa officinalis, and vitexin (A. wardii have been acknowledged with anti-bacterial properties and hence tested against identified drug target of B. petrii by implicating computational approach. The in silico studies revealed the hypothesis that lpxD could be a potential drug target and with recommendation of a strong inhibitory effect of selected natural compounds against infection caused due to B. petrii, would be further validated through in vitro experiments.

Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

2015-04-01

In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

Trends and progress in system identification

CERN Document Server

Eykhoff, Pieter

1981-01-01

Trends and Progress in System Identification is a three-part book that focuses on model considerations, identification methods, and experimental conditions involved in system identification. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with a discussion of model method in system identification, citing four examples differing on the nature of the models involved, the nature of the fields, and their goals. Subsequent chapters describe the most important aspects of model theory; the """"classical"""" methods and time series estimation; application of least squares and related techniques for the e

Climate and weather risk in natural resource models

Science.gov (United States)

Merrill, Nathaniel Henry

This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under risk due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic model for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly risk-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting risk levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this risk-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater model that incorporates the gradual shift

Tacking Flood Risk from Watersheds using a Natural Flood Risk Management Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Reaney, S. M.; Pearson, C.; Barber, N.; Fraser, A.

2017-12-01

In the UK, flood risk management is moving beyond solely mitigating at the point of impact in towns and key infrastructure to tackle problem at source through a range of landscape based intervention measures. This natural flood risk management (NFM) approach has been trailed within a range of catchments in the UK and is moving towards being adopted as a key part of flood risk management. The approach offers advantages including lower cost and co-benefits for water quality and habitat creation. However, for an agency or group wishing to implement NFM within a catchment, there are two key questions that need to be addressed: Where in the catchment to place the measures? And how many measures are needed to be effective? With this toolkit, these questions are assessed with a two-stage workflow. First, SCIMAP-Flood gives a risk based mapping of likely locations that contribute to the flood peak. This tool uses information on land cover, hydrological connectivity, flood generating rainfall patterns and hydrological travel time distributions to impacted communities. The presented example applies the tool to the River Eden catchment, UK, with 5m grid resolution and hence provide sub-field scale information at the landscape extent. SCIMAP-Flood identifies sub-catchments where physically based catchment hydrological simulation models can be applied to test different NFM based mitigation measures. In this example, the CRUM3 catchment hydrological model has been applied within an uncertainty framework to consider the effectiveness of soil compaction reduction and large woody debris dams within a sub-catchment. It was found that large scale soil aeration to reduce soil compaction levels throughout the catchment is probably the most useful natural flood management measure for this catchment. NFM has potential for wide-spread application and these tools help to ensure that the measures are correctly designed and the scheme performance can be quantitatively assessed and predicted.

A HYPOTHESIS: COULD PORTABLE NATURAL GRASS BE A RISK FACTOR FOR KNEE INJURIES?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Orchard

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Previous study has shown a likely link between increased shoe- surface traction and risk of knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL injury. Portable natural grass systems are being used more often in sport, but no study to date has investigated their relative safety. By their nature, they must have high resistance to falling apart and therefore newly laid systems may be at risk of creating excessive shoe-surface traction. This study describes two clusters of knee injuries (particularly non-contact ACL injuries, each occurring to players of one professional football team at single venue, using portable grass, in a short space of time. The first series included two ACL injuries, one posterolateral complex disruption and one lateral ligament tear occurring in two rugby league games on a portable bermudagrass surface in Brisbane, Australia. The second series included four non-contact ACL injuries over a period of ten weeks in professional soccer games on a portable Kentucky bluegrass/perennial ryegrass surface in Barcelona, Spain. Possible intrinsic risk factors are discussed but there was no common risk shared by the players. Although no measures of traction were made at the Brisbane venue, average rotational traction was measured towards the end of the injury cluster at Camp Nou, Barcelona, to be 48 Nm. Chance undoubtedly had a part to play in these clusters, but the only obvious common risk factor was play on a portable natural grass surface soon after it was laid. Further study is required to determine whether portable natural grass systems may exhibit high shoe-surface traction soon after being laid and whether this could be a risk factor for knee injury

Identification of PPARgamma partial agonists of natural origin (II: in silico prediction in natural extracts with known antidiabetic activity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Guasch

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts have played an important role in the prevention and treatment of diseases and are important sources for drug discovery. However, to be effectively used in these processes, natural extracts must be characterized through the identification of their active compounds and their modes of action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and using a previously developed virtual screening procedure (carefully validated experimentally, we have predicted as potential peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ partial agonists 12 molecules from 11 extracts known to have antidiabetic activity. Six of these molecules are similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity but whose mechanism of action is unknown. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be the bioactive molecules responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of the extracts containing them. In addition, we have also identified as potential PPARγ partial agonists 10 molecules from 16 plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity but that are related (i.e., they are from the same genus to plants with known antidiabetic properties. None of the 22 molecules that we predict as PPARγ partial agonists show chemical similarity with a group of 211 known PPARγ partial agonists obtained from the literature. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a new hypothesis about the active molecules of natural extracts with antidiabetic properties and their mode of action. We also suggest plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity that may contain PPARγ partial agonists. These plants represent a new source of potential antidiabetic extracts. Consequently, our work opens the door to the discovery of new antidiabetic extracts and molecules that can be of use, for instance, in the design of new antidiabetic drugs or functional foods focused

Does natural disaster influence people's risk preference and trust? An experiment from cyclone prone coast of Bangladesh

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahsan, Dewan

2014-01-01

Natural catastrophic events may have enormous negative effects on economic growth. People affected by the disaster might be risk averse because of anxiety about the future uncertainty of economic returns. The purpose of this empirical study is to highlight the effect of natural disasters...... (specifically coastal cyclonic storm surges) on individuals' risk preference and level of trust. This study also aims to disentangle risk propensity from trust. It reveals that natural disasters can significantly reduce people's risk-taking attitudes, whereas the catastrophic events have no influence...... on trusting behavior. The study suggests that risk attitudes are significantly negatively correlated with trust....

Dereplication of Natural Products Using GC-TOF Mass Spectrometry: Improved Metabolite Identification By Spectral Deconvolution Ratio Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fausto Carnevale Neto

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Dereplication based on hyphenated techniques has been extensively applied in plant metabolomics, avoiding re-isolation of known natural products. However, due to the complex nature of biological samples and their large concentration range, dereplication requires the use of chemometric tools to comprehensively extract information from the acquired data. In this work we developed a reliable GC-MS-based method for the identification of non-targeted plant metabolites by combining the Ratio Analysis of Mass Spectrometry deconvolution tool (RAMSY with Automated Mass Spectral Deconvolution and Identification System software (AMDIS. Plants species from Solanaceae, Chrysobalanaceae and Euphorbiaceae were selected as model systems due to their molecular diversity, ethnopharmacological potential and economical value. The samples were analyzed by GC-MS after methoximation and silylation reactions. Dereplication initiated with the use of a factorial design of experiments to determine the best AMDIS configuration for each sample, considering linear retention indices and mass spectral data. A heuristic factor (CDF, compound detection factor was developed and applied to the AMDIS results in order to decrease the false-positive rates. Despite the enhancement in deconvolution and peak identification, the empirical AMDIS method was not able to fully deconvolute all GC-peaks, leading to low MF values and/or missing metabolites. RAMSY was applied as a complementary deconvolution method to AMDIS to peaks exhibiting substantial overlap, resulting in recovery of low-intensity co-eluted ions. The results from this combination of optimized AMDIS with RAMSY attested to the ability of this approach as an improved dereplication method for complex biological samples such as plant extracts.

Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

Pricing, hedging and risk management : practical tips for natural gas buyers and sellers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shields, D.

1998-01-01

Risk analysis and techniques to manage risk as it pertains to the natural gas industry were discussed. Portfolio allocations for long-term, short-term fixed price and variable price contracts were described. Options were defined as a market instrument offering the benefits of a fixed price purchase or sale without the obligation of incurring financial or opportunity losses if the market goes against the option buyer. Options should be used as a defence strategy to protect portfolios from price risk in times of uncertainty and to take advantage of current floating market conditions without making a full price commitment. Options can also be used as an offensive strategy to make a directional play on the market or on volatility. Options selling was regarded as a much higher risk than options buying. The variables that affect options premiums were: (1) volatility, (2) time to expiration, (3) underlying price versus strike price, and (4) flexibility. Williams Energy's new world class energy trading floor in Tulsa, Oklahoma was also described. Williams is the largest-volume transporter of natural gas in the U.S. with more than 27,000 miles of pipelines. Williams pipelines transport 16 per cent of all the natural gas used in the U.S. and the company is one of the nation's largest natural gas gatherers and processors. tabs., figs

A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholz, Stefan; Sela, Erika; Blaha, Ludek; Braunbeck, Thomas; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; García-Franco, Mauricio; Guinea, Joaquin; Klüver, Nils; Schirmer, Kristin; Tanneberger, Katrin; Tobor-Kapłon, Marysia; Witters, Hilda; Belanger, Scott; Benfenati, Emilio; Creton, Stuart; Cronin, Mark T D; Eggen, Rik I L; Embry, Michelle; Ekman, Drew; Gourmelon, Anne; Halder, Marlies; Hardy, Barry; Hartung, Thomas; Hubesch, Bruno; Jungmann, Dirk; Lampi, Mark A; Lee, Lucy; Léonard, Marc; Küster, Eberhard; Lillicrap, Adam; Luckenbach, Till; Murk, Albertinka J; Navas, José M; Peijnenburg, Willie; Repetto, Guillermo; Salinas, Edward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Spielmann, Horst; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Walter-Rohde, Susanne; Whale, Graham; Wheeler, James R; Winter, Matthew J

2013-12-01

Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of Patient Safety Risks Associated with Electronic Health Records: A Software Quality Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Virginio, Luiz A; Ricarte, Ivan Luiz Marques

2015-01-01

Although Electronic Health Records (EHR) can offer benefits to the health care process, there is a growing body of evidence that these systems can also incur risks to patient safety when developed or used improperly. This work is a literature review to identify these risks from a software quality perspective. Therefore, the risks were classified based on the ISO/IEC 25010 software quality model. The risks identified were related mainly to the characteristics of "functional suitability" (i.e., software bugs) and "usability" (i.e., interface prone to user error). This work elucidates the fact that EHR quality problems can adversely affect patient safety, resulting in errors such as incorrect patient identification, incorrect calculation of medication dosages, and lack of access to patient data. Therefore, the risks presented here provide the basis for developers and EHR regulating bodies to pay attention to the quality aspects of these systems that can result in patient harm.

Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roznik, Elizabeth A; Sapsford, Sarah J; Pike, David A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

2015-08-21

Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11-28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence.

Climate change, natural disasters, and the risk of violent conflict

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slettebak, Rune Thorkildsen

2012-07-01

This PhD project aims to assess the relation between natural disasters triggered by extreme weather events and the risk of violent conflict. The focus on these natural disasters stems from expectations that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, combined with frequent suggestions that climate change in general and natural disasters in particular can be expected to trigger more violent conflicts. A number of conflict types, ranging from riots to civil war, are tested. Case studies have found examples where environmental factors have contributed to triggering conflict. However, without systematic assessments, we do not know whether these cases are exceptions or parts of a common pattern. Learning more about this is a prime aim of this thesis. As the effects of climate change are still mainly in the future, I turn to the past for learning more about these connections. Although future relations may differ from those in the past, learning from history is considered the best way of increasing our basis of knowledge on what to expect from the future. The thesis tests two opposing theoretical traditions against each other. On one side is the environmental security literature, which holds that environmentally induced adversity is likely to increase the risk of violent conflict. The other, relatively unknown tradition, called disaster sociology, expects adversity to stimulate altruistic behavior and replace past ascribed identities with new 'communities of sufferers' in the disaster aftermath. In a violent conflict setting, this argument is read as that disasters should reduce conflict risk. Four analyses have been conducted. The first has a global coverage, two focus on India and the last one on Indonesia. The first analysis aims to uncover general trends, while the three others use cases where environmentally driven violence is considered particularly likely, and disaggregated analytical designs that should be well

Standardization of natural phenomena risk assessment methodology at the Savannah River Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, J.C.; Hsu, Y.S.

1985-01-01

Safety analyses at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) normally require consideration of the risks of incidents caused by natural events such as high-velocity straight winds, tornadic winds, and earthquakes. The probabilities for these events to occur at SRP had been studied independently by several investigators, but the results of their studies were never systematically evaluated. As part of the endeavor to standardize our environmental risk assessment methodology, these independent studies have been thoroughly reviewed and critiqued, and appropriate probability models for these natural events have been selected. The selected probability models for natural phenomena, high-velocity straight winds and tornadic winds in particular, are in agreement with those being used at other DOE sites, and have been adopted as a guide for all safety studies conducted for SRP operations and facilities. 7 references, 3 figures

Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees: Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead

Science.gov (United States)

Rodak, C.; Silliman, S.

2012-02-01

Wellhead protection is of critical importance for managing groundwater resources. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for addressing wellhead protection in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health of the receiving population are limited. It is herein suggested that probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) provides a structure whereby chemical transport can be combined with uncertainties in source, chemistry, and health impact to assess the probability of negative health outcomes in the population. As such, PRA-FT provides a new strategy for the identification of areas of probabilistically high human health risk. Application of this approach is demonstrated through a simplified case study involving flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer with heterogeneity in aquifer properties and contaminant sources.

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health risk assessment based on injection of upgraded biogas in natural gas grid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leroux, C.; Modelon, H.; Rousselle, C.; Zdanevitch, I.; Evanno, S.

2010-01-01

This document presents the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (AFSSET). Results are based on a collective expertise conducted to assess health risks associated with the injection of biogas in the natural gas grid. The complete assessment is published and available on the web site of the Agency; only the major results are presented in this document. Following recommendations issued by AFSSET in 2008, a new study has been initiated to collect and analyze data on the composition of biogas from sewage sludge. The French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) is in charge of this project. The data will be used to assess the accidental risks (resulting from the upgrading of biogas, transport by pipeline and utilization for energy purposes) and health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas grid). (authors)

Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

2014-05-01

The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

Health risk assessment linked with purified biogas injection in a natural gas distribution system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Evanno, Sebastien

2009-06-01

This document provides for the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Afsset) expressed after the collective expertise carried out for the evaluation of the health risk linked with biogas injection in the natural gas distribution system. Following the recommendations issued by the Afsset, works have been started in order to collect the sludge-derived biogas and to analyse its composition. These data will be used to assess accidental risks (resulting from biogas valorisation, pipeline transport, industrial and domestic energy valorisation) as well as health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas distribution system)

Low cultural identification, low parental involvement and adverse peer influences as risk factors for delinquent behaviour among Filipino youth in Hawai'i.

Science.gov (United States)

Guerrero, Anthony P S; Nishimura, Stephanie T; Chang, Janice Y; Ona, Celia; Cunanan, Vanessa L; Hishinuma, Earl S

2010-07-01

Among Filipino youth in Hawai'i, low Filipino cultural identification and low family support may be important risk factors for delinquency. To examine, in a sample of Filipino youth in Hawai'i, correlations between delinquent behaviour and the aforementioned - as well as other, potentially mediating - variables. A youth risk survey and Filipino Culture Scale were administered to Filipino students (N = 150) in Hawai'i. A parent risk survey was administered to available and consenting parents. Delinquent behaviour correlated positively with acculturative stress, low cultural identification and adverse peer influences; and negatively with total Filipino Culture Scale score. Structural equation modelling suggested that absent/ineffective adults and adverse peer influences might be more important variables compared to low self-esteem and less religiosity, linking low cultural identification to delinquent behaviour. Although further studies are warranted, to be effective, efforts to prevent delinquency by enhancing Filipino youths' cultural connectedness may also need to enhance family connectedness and address adverse peer influences.

Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

M Kemal Özfirat

2017-09-27

Sep 27, 2017 ... Different types of accidents may occur in natural stone facilities during movement, dimensioning, cutting ... are numerous risk analysis methods such as preliminary ..... machine type and maintenance (MM) event, block control.

The General Urban Plan of Casimcea territorial administrative unit, map of natural and anthropogenic risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sorin BĂNICĂ

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The General Urban Plan represents the legal ground for any development action proposed. After endorsement and approval as required by law, GUP is act of authority of local government for the area in which it applies. The aim is to establish priorities regulations applied in land use planning and construction of structures. In terms of geographical location, the administrative territory of Casimcea, Tulcea county, falls in the central Northwest Plateau Casimcei. This is the second unit of the Central Dobrogea Plateau. Geographical location in southeastern Romania, climatic and relief conditions and anthropogenic pressure, expose the village administrative territorial unit Casimcea, permanent susceptibility to produce natural and antropogenical risks. In this context, we identified the following categories of natural and anthropogenic risks: i natural risk phenomena (earthquakes, strong winds, heavy rains, floods caused by overflowing or precipitation, erosion of river banks and torrents, gravitational processes, rain droplet erosion and surface soil erosion; and ii anthropogenic risk phenomena (overgrazing, chemicals use in agriculture, road transport infrastructure and electricity, wind turbines for electricity production, waste deposits, agro-zootechnical complexs, and human cemeteries. Extending their surface was materialized by creating a map of natural and anthropogenic risk on Casimcea territorial administrative unit, explaining the share of potentially affected areas as territorial balance

Three-dimensional dose-response models of competing risks and natural life span

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raabe, O.G.

1987-01-01

Three-dimensional dose-rate/time/response surfaces for chronic exposure to carcinogens, toxicants, and ionizing radiation dramatically clarify the separate and interactive roles of competing risks. The three dimensions are average dose rate, exposure time, and risk. An illustration with computer graphics shows the contributions with the passage of time of the competing risks of death from radiation pneumonitis/fibrosis, lung cancer, and natural aging consequent to the inhalation of plutonium-239 dioxide by beagles. These relationships are further evaluated by mathematical stripping with three-dimensional illustrations that graphically show the resultant separate contribution of each fatal effect. Radiation pneumonitis predominates at high dose rates and lung cancer at intermediate dose rates. Low dose rates result in spontaneous deaths from natural aging, yielding a type of practical threshold for lung cancer induction. Risk assessment is benefited by the insights that become apparent with these three-dimensional models. The improved conceptualization afforded by them contributes to the planning and evaluation of epidemiological analyses and experimental studies involving chronic exposure to toxicants

Identification of the timing-of-events model with multiple competing exit risks from single-spell data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Drepper, Bettina; Effraimidis, G.

2016-01-01

The identification result of the timing-of-events model (Abbring and Van den Berg, 2003b) is extended to a model with several competing exit risk equations. This extension allows e.g. to simultaneously identify the different effects a benefit sanction has on the rate of finding work and leaving t...

Endocrine effects of chemicals: aspects of hazard identification and human health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Dekant, Wolfgang; Colnot, Thomas

2013-12-16

Hazard and risk assessment of chemicals with endocrine activity is hotly debated due to claimed non-monotonous dose-response curves in the low-dose region. In hazard identification a clear definition of "endocrine disruptors" (EDs) is required; this should be based on the WHO/IPCS definition of EDs and on adverse effects demonstrated in intact animals or humans. Therefore, endocrine effects are a mode of action potentially resulting in adverse effects; any classification should not be based on a mode of action, but on adverse effects. In addition, when relying on adverse effects, most effects reported in the low-dose region will not qualify for hazard identification since most have little relation to an adverse effect. Non-monotonous dose-response curves that had been postulated from limited, exploratory studies could also not be reproduced in targeted studies with elaborate quality assurance. Therefore, regulatory agencies or advisory bodies continue to apply the safety-factor method or the concept of "margin-of-exposure" based on no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) in the risk assessment of chemicals with weak hormonal activity. Consistent with this approach, tolerable levels regarding human exposure have been defined for such chemicals. To conclusively support non-monotonous dose-response curves, targeted experiments with a sufficient number of animals, determination of adverse endpoints, adequate statistics and quality control would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko

2010-05-01

Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

2005-01-01

Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

Effectiveness of Reptile Species Identification--A Comparison of a Dichotomous Key with an Identification Book

Science.gov (United States)

Randler, Christoph; Zehender, Irene

2006-01-01

Species identification tasks are a prerequisite for an understanding of biodiversity. Here, we focused on different educational materials to foster the identification of six European reptile species. Our educational training unit was based on natural plastic models of six species and pupils either used an illustrated identification book or a…

Risk communication of terrorist acts, natural disasters, and criminal violence: comparing the processes of understanding and responding.

Science.gov (United States)

Heilbrun, Kirk; Wolbransky, Melinda; Shah, Sanjay; Kelly, Rebecca

2010-01-01

Risk communication is an important vehicle for the scientific understanding of the perception of and response to various kinds of threats. The present study provides apparently the first empirical attempt to compare perceptions, decision-making, and anticipated action in response to threats of three kinds: natural disaster, violent crime, and terrorism. A total of 258 college undergraduates were surveyed using a vignette-based, 2 × 2 × 3 between-subjects design that systematically manipulated threat imminence (high vs. low), risk level (high vs. low), and nature of the threat (natural disaster vs. crime vs. terrorism). There were substantial differences in participants' perceptions and reported actions in response to natural disaster, relative to the other domains of risk, under conditions of high risk. The risk of natural disaster was more likely to lead participants to report that they would change their daily activities and to relocate. It was also more likely than terrorism to lead to action securing the home. It appears that the mechanisms for perception, decision-making, and action in response to threats cannot be generalized in a straightforward way across these domains of threat. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briscoe, G.J.

1977-06-01

Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Petrova

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Roder, Giulia; Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Lin, Ching-Weei; Tarolli, Paolo

2015-04-01

The purpose of this work is to investigate the natural hazard knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community, located in Fazhi Village in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Taiwan has encountered many different types of natural hazards (e.g. landslides and debris flows) that have increased sharply in the last century. Because of that, they are one of the most critical issues for the government and for the people living in mountainous areas. These areas are mainly populated by indigenous people that have experienced economic competition and military conflict with a series of colonizing periods causing a progressive loss of their original cultural identity. The motivation of selecting the case study of Wujie community is because (i) it has suffered, more than others, generations of devastating colonial oppression by foreign governments; (ii) the consequences of hydroelectric projects that moved a lot of water and sediment to the valley and modified the path of the river through the years; (iii) the documented landslides and debris flows occurred in the region during the last decades. Two questions appear spontaneously: How indigenous people are nowadays living with natural hazards? Have land use change or any other human footprint affected their knowledge and perception on natural hazards? This research, the first carried out in Taiwan involving an indigenous community, can offer a unique opportunity to answer these questions. The investigation utilized a variety of participatory methods conducted at the household and community level by the use of 65 face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that residents felt a higher worry about landslide and flood risks, and a slight preparedness to face them. This discrepancy may derive from an unsatisfactory level of communication and information, and the most considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. Results revealed also the complexity

Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

OpenAIRE

Shan, Xian; Liu, Kang; Sun, Pei-Liang

2017-01-01

Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential...

Evaluating common de-identification heuristics for personal health information.

Science.gov (United States)

El Emam, Khaled; Jabbouri, Sam; Sams, Scott; Drouet, Youenn; Power, Michael

2006-11-21

With the growing adoption of electronic medical records, there are increasing demands for the use of this electronic clinical data in observational research. A frequent ethics board requirement for such secondary use of personal health information in observational research is that the data be de-identified. De-identification heuristics are provided in the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Privacy Rule, funding agency and professional association privacy guidelines, and common practice. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether the re-identification risks due to record linkage are sufficiently low when following common de-identification heuristics and whether the risk is stable across sample sizes and data sets. Two methods were followed to construct identification data sets. Re-identification attacks were simulated on these. For each data set we varied the sample size down to 30 individuals, and for each sample size evaluated the risk of re-identification for all combinations of quasi-identifiers. The combinations of quasi-identifiers that were low risk more than 50% of the time were considered stable. The identification data sets we were able to construct were the list of all physicians and the list of all lawyers registered in Ontario, using 1% sampling fractions. The quasi-identifiers of region, gender, and year of birth were found to be low risk more than 50% of the time across both data sets. The combination of gender and region was also found to be low risk more than 50% of the time. We were not able to create an identification data set for the whole population. Existing Canadian federal and provincial privacy laws help explain why it is difficult to create an identification data set for the whole population. That such examples of high re-identification risk exist for mainstream professions makes a strong case for not disclosing the high-risk variables and their combinations identified here. For professional subpopulations with published

Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

2012-04-01

In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Pro-active approaches to the identification of emerging risks in the food chain: Retrospective case studies.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Kleter, G.A.; Kreft, F.; Leeuwen, van P.; Waalwijk, C.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Marvin, H.J.P.

2006-01-01

In this report six case studies are carried out on food-safety and animal-health crises that have occurred in the recent past. The aim is to learn from these cases if and how the identification of emerging food-safety (and animal-health) risks can be improved by adopting a (more) pro-active approach

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Communicating with children and adolescents about the risk of natural disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Midtbust, Liv Gunvor Hove; Dyregrov, Atle; Djup, Heidi Wittrup

2018-01-01

A vast number of people annually are affected by natural disasters. Children are at risk of losing their lives and suffer mentally or physically after such events. The fostering of resilience and preparedness ahead of disasters can reduce untoward effects of disastrous events. Risk communication and disaster education are considered important aspects of disaster preparedness, but little is known about whether such strategies influence children's behaviour when natural disasters occur or how they cope in the aftermath. This paper presents and discusses various strategies that promote preparedness activities to save lives. To a minor extent, it also includes strategies that can promote coping in the aftermath. Strategies such as informational campaigns, educational activities, psychoeducation and parental guidance are addressed. The literature to date indicates that schools are a suitable arena for risk communication, and that adolescents themselves should be involved and engaged in the communication strategies. However, the relationship between knowledge of preparedness strategies and the resulting preparedness actions is largely unknown. It is unknown whether changes in awareness and attitudes have resulted in actual behaviour change. It is advocated that preparedness activities and parental involvement should supplement information-based strategies.

More Than a Potential Hazard—Approaching Risks from a Social-Ecological Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolin Völker

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Risks have been classically understood as a probability of damage or a potential hazard resulting in appropriate management strategies. However, research on environmental issues such as pollutants in the aquatic environment or the impacts of climate change have shown that classical management approaches do not sufficiently cover these interactions between society and nature. There have been several attempts to develop interdisciplinary approaches to risk that include natural as well as social science contributions. In this paper, the authors aim at developing a social-ecological perspective on risk by drawing on the concept of societal relations to nature and the model of provisioning systems. This perspective is used to analyze four cases, pharmaceuticals, microplastics, semicentralized water infrastructures and forest management, with regard to risk identification, assessment and management. Finally, the paper aims at developing a perspective on risks which takes into account non-intended side-effects, system interdependencies and uncertainty.

Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

2008-10-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

Science.gov (United States)

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

Monitoring and Risk Identification Caused by High Water, Floods and Erosion Processes in Urban Part of Sava Riverbed

Science.gov (United States)

Oskoruš, D.; Miković, N.; Ljevar, I.

2012-04-01

Riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in the upper stream of Sava River. The increasing gradient of those changes is interconnected with the level of human influence in the river basin and riverbed as well. In time period of last forty years the consequences of riverbed erosion are become serious as well as dangerous and they threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. The increasing value of flow velocity in riverbed in urban part of river section during high water level, mud and debris flow during the floods as well, is especially dangerous for old bridges. This paper contains result of velocity measurements during high waters taken by Hydrological Service of Republic Croatia, load transport monitoring during such events and cross sections in some vulnerable location. In this paper is given one example of Jakuševac railway bridge in Zagreb, heavily destroyed during high water event on the 30 March 2009., recently reconstructed by "Croatian Railways" company. Keywords: Riverbed erosion, flow velocity, mud and debris flow, risk identification, stability of bridges

The influence of school-based natural mentoring relationships on school attachment and subsequent adolescent risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, David S; Grenard, Jerry L; Sussman, Steve; Rohrbach, Louise A

2010-10-01

A relatively new area of research suggests that naturally occurring mentoring relationships may influence the development of adolescents by protecting against risk behaviors. Few studies have explored how these relationships function to reduce risk behavior among youth, especially in the school context. Based on previous research and theory, we proposed and tested a mediation model, which hypothesized that school attachment mediated the longitudinal association between school-based natural mentoring relationships and risk behaviors, including eight indicators of substance use and violence. Students (N = 3320) from 65 high schools across eight states completed a self-report questionnaire at baseline and 1-year follow-up. The sample was comprised of youth with an average age of 14.8 years and an almost equal percentage of females (53%) and males from various ethnic backgrounds. Tests for mediation were conducted in Mplus using path analysis with full information maximum likelihood procedures and models adjusted for demographic covariates and baseline level of the dependent variable. Results suggested that natural mentoring relationships had a protective indirect influence on all eight risk behaviors through its positive association on the school attachment mediator. Implications are discussed for strengthening the association between school-based natural mentoring and school attachment to prevent risk behaviors among youth.

Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

Science.gov (United States)

Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

2009-04-01

The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

Science.gov (United States)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

The Nature of Natural Hazards Communication (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Kontar, Y. Y.

2013-12-01

Some of the many issues of interest to natural hazards professionals include the analysis of proactive approaches to the governance of risk from natural hazards and approaches to broaden the scope of public policies related to the management of risks from natural hazards, as well as including emergency and environmental management, community development and spatial planning related to natural hazards. During the talk we will present results of scientific review, analysis and synthesis, which emphasize same new trends in communication of the natural hazards theories and practices within an up-to-the-minute context of new environmental and climate change issues, new technologies, and a new focus on resiliency. The presentation is divided into five sections that focus on natural hazards communication in terms of education, risk management, public discourse, engaging the public, theoretical perspectives, and new media. It includes results of case studies and best practices. It delves into natural hazards communication theories, including diffusion, argumentation, and constructivism, to name a few. The presentation will provide information about: (1) A manual of natural hazards communication for scientists, policymakers, and media; (2) An up-to-the-minute context of environmental hazards, new technologies & political landscape; (3) A work by natural hazards scientists for geoscientists working with social scientists and communication principles; (4) A work underpinned by key natural hazards communication theories and interspersed with pragmatic solutions; (5) A work that crosses traditional natural hazards boundaries: international, interdisciplinary, theoretical/applied. We will further explore how spatial planning can contribute to risk governance by influencing the occupation of natural hazard-prone areas, and review the central role of emergency management in risk policy. The goal of this presentation is to contribute to the augmentation of the conceptual framework

Identification of natural metabolites in mixture: a pattern recognition strategy based on (13)C NMR.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubert, Jane; Nuzillard, Jean-Marc; Purson, Sylvain; Hamzaoui, Mahmoud; Borie, Nicolas; Reynaud, Romain; Renault, Jean-Hugues

2014-03-18

Because of their highly complex metabolite profile, the chemical characterization of bioactive natural extracts usually requires time-consuming multistep purification procedures to achieve the structural elucidation of pure individual metabolites. The aim of the present work was to develop a dereplication strategy for the identification of natural metabolites directly within mixtures. Exploiting the polarity range of metabolites, the principle was to rapidly fractionate a multigram quantity of a crude extract by centrifugal partition extraction (CPE). The obtained fractions of simplified chemical composition were subsequently analyzed by (13)C NMR. After automatic collection and alignment of (13)C signals across spectra, hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) was performed for pattern recognition. As a result, strong correlations between (13)C signals of a single structure within the mixtures of the fraction series were visualized as chemical shift clusters. Each cluster was finally assigned to a molecular structure with the help of a locally built (13)C NMR chemical shift database. The proof of principle of this strategy was achieved on a simple model mixture of commercially available plant secondary metabolites and then applied to a bark extract of the African tree Anogeissus leiocarpus Guill. & Perr. (Combretaceae). Starting from 5 g of this genuine extract, the fraction series was generated by CPE in only 95 min. (13)C NMR analyses of all fractions followed by pattern recognition of (13)C chemical shifts resulted in the unambiguous identification of seven major compounds, namely, sericoside, trachelosperogenin E, ellagic acid, an epimer mixture of (+)-gallocatechin and (-)-epigallocatechin, 3,3'-di-O-methylellagic acid 4'-O-xylopyranoside, and 3,4,3'-tri-O-methylflavellagic acid 4'-O-glucopyranoside.

Identification, Response, and Referral of Suicidal Youth Following Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training.

Science.gov (United States)

Ewell Foster, Cynthia J; Burnside, Amanda N; Smith, Patricia K; Kramer, Anne C; Wills, Allie; A King, Cheryl

2017-06-01

Gatekeeper training is a public health approach to suicide prevention that encourages community members to identify those at risk for suicide, respond appropriately, and refer for clinical services. Despite widespread use, few studies have examined whether training results in behavior change in participants. This study employed a naturalistic pre-post design to follow 434 participants in Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training, finding small but significant increases in self-reported identification of at-risk youth, some helpful responses to youth, and numbers of youth referred to treatment from pre-test to 6- to 9-month follow-up. Changes in active listening and helping behaviors meant to support treatment referrals (such as convincing a youth to seek treatment) were not observed over time. Additional analyses explored predictors of self-reported skill utilization including identification as a "natural helper" and attitudes about suicide prevention. © 2016 The American Association of Suicidology.

Empirical study of ill-supported activities in variation risk identification and assessment in early stage product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjarklev, Kristian; Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Ebro, Martin

2017-01-01

medical device company by interviewing six key employees that work in the variation risk identification and assessment process. It is found that there are several ill-supported activities, and that the project teams rely heavily on tolerance experts’ assistance and experience in order to identify...... and assess the variation risk. Ill-supported activities are found to be: Balancing hardness of requirements and the screening; communicating mechanism understanding; predicting user input and internal component movement; documenting and communicating tolerance analysis; implementing robustness in the early...

Chances and risks in the sale of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaeth, F.

1995-01-01

'Natural gas is number one among the growth industries of the energy sector' proclaim today's augurs. What with growth rates of 20% in western and more than 100% in eastern Germany, the gas supply companies could really look ahead in confidence. However, the situation does not merit unrestrained euphoria. For one thing, predictions should quite generally be viewed with a good measure of healthy scepticism, or, as Prof. Dr. Dieter Schmitt, energy economist from Essen, recently put it in a nutshell: 'Prognoses are no prophecies. Only prophets are really able to tell the future'. The other point is that natural gas will only be able to carry its past success on into the future if it can fulfill the consumer's expectations regarding security of supply, environment and climate friendly utilisation, possibilities to save energy, and, most important of all, competitivity. The last point, in particular, is beset with many imponderabilities on which gas supply companies have little influence. Therefore, despite the favourable forecasts, the chances and risks involved in the sale of natural gas must be assessed judiciously. (orig.) [de

Predictive validity of the identification of seniors at risk screening tool in a German emergency department setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Singler, Katrin; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Skutetzky, Andreas; Sieber, Cornel; Christ, Michael; Thiem, Ulrich

2014-01-01

The identification of patients at high risk for adverse outcomes [death, unplanned readmission to emergency department (ED)/hospital, functional decline] plays an important role in emergency medicine. The Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) instrument is one of the most commonly used and best-validated screening tools. As to the authors' knowledge so far there are no data on any screening tool for the identification of older patients at risk for a negative outcome in Germany. To evaluate the validity of the ISAR screening tool in a German ED. This was a prospective single-center observational cohort study in an ED of an urban university-affiliated hospital. Participants were 520 patients aged ≥75 years consecutively admitted to the ED. The German version of the ISAR screening tool was administered directly after triage of the patients. Follow-up telephone interviews to assess outcome variables were conducted 28 and 180 days after the index visit in the ED. The primary end point was death from any cause or hospitalization or recurrent ED visit or change of residency into a long-term care facility on day 28 after the index ED visit. The mean age ± SD was 82.8 ± 5.0 years. According to ISAR, 425 patients (81.7%) scored ≥2 points, and 315 patients (60.5%) scored ≥3 points. The combined primary end point was observed in 250 of 520 patients (48.1%) on day 28 and in 260 patients (50.0%) on day 180. Using a continuous ISAR score the area under the curve on day 28 was 0.621 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.573-0.669) and 0.661 (95% CI 0.615-0.708) on day 180, respectively. The German version of the ISAR screening tool acceptably identified elderly patients in the ED with an increased risk of a negative outcome. Using the cutoff ≥3 points instead of ≥2 points yielded better overall results.

The identification of risk factors for ankle sprains sustained during netball participation.

Science.gov (United States)

Attenborough, Alison S; Sinclair, Peter J; Sharp, Tristan; Greene, Andrew; Stuelcken, Max; Smith, Richard M; Hiller, Claire E

2017-01-01

Ankle sprains account for a large percentage of injuries sustained in netball. The identification of risk factors for ankle sprain is the preliminary action required to inform future prevention strategies. Prospective study. Ninety-four netball players from club and inter-district teams. Preseason data were collected for; vertical jump height, perceived ankle instability, sprain history, arthrometry inversion-eversion angles, star excursion balance test reach distances, the number of foot lifts during unilateral stance and demi-pointe balance test results. Participants were followed for the duration of one netball season and ankle sprains were recorded. Eleven sprains were recorded for eleven players using a time-loss definition of injury. Ankle sprains occurred at an incidence rate of 1.74/1000 h of netball exposure. One risk factor was identified to increase the odds of sustaining an ankle sprain during netball participation - a reach distance in the posterior-medial direction of the star excursion balance test of less than or equal to 77.5% of leg length (OR = 4.04, 95% CI = 1.00-16.35). The identified risk factor can be easily measured and should be considered for preseason injury risk profiling of netball players. Netball players may benefit from training programs aimed at improving single leg balance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ATLAS “RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN XXI CENTURY: NATURAL CHALLENGES AND RISKS OF DEVELOPMENT”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Alekseevskiy

2013-01-01

Full Text Available  The huge investigation of Arctic region of Russia was performed by team of researchers from Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University. This investigation resulted in creation of atlas “Russian Arctic in XXI century: natural challenges and risks of development”. In the first place this atlas was made for pupils and school teachers, letting them study modern features of natural environment and socio-economical processes. Atlas contains 7 sections, including both natural and socio-economical maps.

Serendipitous identification of natural intergenotypic recombinants of hepatitis C in Ireland.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Moreau, Isabelle

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Recombination between hepatitis C single stranded RNA viruses is a rare event. Natural viable intragenotypic and intergenotypic recombinants between 1b-1a, 1a-1c and 2k-1b, 2i-6p, respectively, have been reported. Diagnostically recombinants represent an intriguing challenge. Hepatitis C genotype is defined by interrogation of the sequence composition of the 5\\' untranslated region [5\\'UTR]. Occasionally, ambiguous specimens require further investigation of the genome, usually by interrogation of the NS5B region. The original purpose of this study was to confirm the existence of a suspected mixed genotype infection of genotypes 2 and 4 by clonal analysis at the NS5B region of the genome in two specimens from two separate individuals. This initial identification of genotype was based on analysis of the 5\\'UTR of the genome by reverse line probe hybridisation [RLPH]. RESULTS: The original diagnosis of a mixed genotype infection was not confirmed by clonal analysis of the NS5B region of the genome. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that both specimens were natural intergenotypic recombinant forms of HCV. The recombination was between genotypes 2k and 1b for both specimens. The recombination break point was identified as occurring within the NS2 region of the genome. CONCLUSION: The viral recombinants identified here resemble the recombinant form originally identified in Russia. The RLPH pattern observed in this study may be a signature indicative of this particular type of intergenotype recombinant of hepatitis C meriting clonal analysis of NS2.

Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hobaek Haff, Ingrid; Lindqvist, Ola; Loeland, Anders

2008-01-01

This report investigates the UK natural gas market, and tests whether it is a fair-game efficient forward market, using forward contracts ranging from one to five months time to delivery. The forward and spot price series are separately non-stationary, but cointegrated. Furthermore, the forward prices are biased predictors of both the future spot and the 1-month-ahead forward price. The risk premium on the forward prices is positive, as opposed to the US gas market, where the risk premium was found to be negative in similar work. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the storage model is an incomplete model for the relationship between the spot and forward prices. However, storage has a clear effect on this relationship, an effect that appears to be non-linear. (author)

A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

2007-03-01

Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

2008-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

Developing the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping out using a collaborative action research process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jovanović Olja 0000-0001-8860-6717

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents findings of collaborative action research aimed at exploring and describing the process of the development of the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping (EWS. The study has been conducted in collaboration between practitioners from five vocational agriculture and food science schools and research team with expertise in the field of educational psychology. Study employed one cycle of collaborative action research including planning, acting, observing, reflecting and revising phase. During the planning and action phase, Instrument for identification of students at risk of dropping out has been developed and implemented on the sample of 485 first grade students. The collected data has been used to highlight the students who are beginning to exhibit warning signs that could become obstacles to graduation, as well as to craft meaningful prevention and intervention measures. Observations regarding the implementation of proposed methodology and reflections on collected data and ongoing processes have been systematically recorded through regular monthly meetings between researchers and practitioners. Analysis of 73 documents, collected during observation and reflection phase, resulted in 18 categories, grouped into two broad themes: pitfalls and strengths of EWS. Based on the findings, the methodology for identification of students at risk was revised to fit the needs and strengths of the specific school. The study offers valuable lessons regarding development of EWS through researchers-practitioners collaboration.

Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-02-01

Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Peter; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Ilbery, Brian; Jeger, Mike; Jones, Glyn; Little, Ruth; MacLeod, Alan; Parker, Steve; Pautasso, Marco; Pietravalle, Stephane; Maye, Damian

2011-01-01

Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions. PMID:21624923

Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

1991-08-01

This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update

Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

1991-08-01

This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update.

Modelling characteristics to predict Legionella contamination risk - Surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems and identification of risk areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Völker, Sebastian; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2016-01-01

For the surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems (DWPS) and the identification of risk factors, there is a need for an early estimation of the risk of Legionella contamination within a building, using efficient and assessable parameters to estimate hazards and to prioritize risks. The precision, accuracy and effectiveness of ways of estimating the risk of higher Legionella numbers (temperature, stagnation, pipe materials, etc.) have only rarely been empirically assessed in practice, although there is a broad consensus about the impact of these risk factors. We collected n = 807 drinking water samples from 9 buildings which had had Legionella spp. occurrences of >100 CFU/100mL within the last 12 months, and tested for Legionella spp., L. pneumophila, HPC 20°C and 36°C (culture-based). Each building was sampled for 6 months under standard operating conditions in the DWPS. We discovered high variability (up to 4 log(10) steps) in the presence of Legionella spp. (CFU/100 mL) within all buildings over a half year period as well as over the course of a day. Occurrences were significantly correlated with temperature, pipe length measures, and stagnation. Logistic regression modelling revealed three parameters (temperature after flushing until no significant changes in temperatures can be obtained, stagnation (low withdrawal, qualitatively assessed), pipe length proportion) to be the best predictors of Legionella contamination (>100 CFU/100 mL) at single outlets (precision = 66.7%; accuracy = 72.1%; F(0.5) score = 0.59). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Li

2012-11-01

Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

Natural Disasters and Cholera Outbreaks: Current Understanding and Future Outlook.

Science.gov (United States)

Jutla, Antarpreet; Khan, Rakibul; Colwell, Rita

2017-03-01

Diarrheal diseases remain a serious global public health threat, especially for those populations lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. Although association of several diarrheal diseases, e.g., cholera, shigellosis, etc., with climatic processes has been documented, the global human population remains at heightened risk of outbreak of diseases after natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, or droughts. In this review, cholera was selected as a signature diarrheal disease and the role of natural disasters in triggering and transmitting cholera was analyzed. Key observations include identification of an inherent feedback loop that includes societal structure, prevailing climatic processes, and spatio-temporal seasonal variability of natural disasters. Data obtained from satellite-based remote sensing are concluded to have application, although limited, in predicting risks of a cholera outbreak(s). We argue that with the advent of new high spectral and spatial resolution data, earth observation systems should be seamlessly integrated in a decision support mechanism to be mobilize resources when a region suffers a natural disaster. A framework is proposed that can be used to assess the impact of natural disasters with response to outbreak of cholera, providing assessment of short- and long-term influence of climatic processes on disease outbreaks.

Methods of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D.R.

1981-01-01

The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

Natural Disasters, Corpses and the Risk of Infectious Diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JM Conly

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The recent occurrence of the category 4 Hurricane Katrina devastated the United States? Gulf Coast. The hurricane caused widespread destruction and flooding, and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless. The mounting death toll was reported at almost 300 deaths as of September 8, 2005 (1,2. The unfolding events and high death toll have left an unusual situation in which there are many decomposing corpses either lying on the streets or floating in the flood waters. The presence of these corpses in open settings, such as in public places and in the water that has inundated much of the city of New Orleans, naturally raises concerns about the occurrence of infectious disease epidemics (3. In the aftermath of large natural disasters, instinctive uncertainties arise among workers and the general population with respect to the appropriate handling and disposal of dead bodies and human remains. Given the recent occurrence of Hurricane Katrina as a large natural disaster and the unprecedented setting of the numerous corpses requiring disposal, it was considered timely to review the infectious disease risks associated with the handling of dead bodies.

A meta-analysis of risk factors for depression in adults and children after natural disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Bihan; Liu, Xu; Liu, Yuan; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

2014-06-19

A number of studies have shown a range of negative psychological symptoms (e.g. depression) after exposure to natural disasters. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for depression in both children and adults who have survived natural disasters. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsychInfo) were used to search for observational studies (case-control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies) about depression following natural disasters. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted independently by two authors. Thirty-one articles were included in the study, of which twenty included adult participants and eleven included child participants. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias tests were performed on the data. The prevalence of depression after natural disasters ranged from 5.8% to 54.0% in adults and from 7.5% to 44.8% in children. We found a number of risk factors for depression after exposure to natural disasters. For adults, the significant predictors were being female ;not married;holding religious beliefs; having poor education; prior trauma; experiencing fear, injury, or bereavement during the disaster; or losing employment or property, suffering house damage as a result of the disaster. For children, the significant predictors were prior trauma; being trapped during the disaster; experiencing injury, fear, or bereavement during the disaster; witnessing injury/death during the disaster; or having poor social support. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for depression in survivors of natural disasters. Further research is necessary to design interventions to improve the mental health of survivors of natural disasters.

Identification from the Natural Response of Vasco Da Gama Bridge

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cunha, A.; Caetano, E.; Brincker, Rune

2004-01-01

This paper describes the reanalysis of the ambient vibration data of Vasco da Gama cable-stayed bridge with the purpose of testing the efficiency and accuracy of two recent and promising identification methods in a large application: the Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and the Stochastic...... Subspace Identification (SSI) methods. The modal estimates obtained using these alternative approaches are compared, taking also into account the estimates previously obtained with the conventional Peak Picking technique from the free vibration test of the bridge, performed at the end of construction....

Falls' problematization and risk factors identification through older adults' narrative.

Science.gov (United States)

Morsch, Patricia; Myskiw, Mauro; Myskiw, Jociane de Carvalho

2016-11-01

Falling is an important event for older adults as they might cause physical and psychological impairment, institutionalization and increased mortality risk. Adherence in falls prevention programs depends on older adults' perceptions in relation to falling. The current study aims to investigate the fall problematization and older adults' perception about the risk factors for falls. This is an exploratory qualitative research, conducted through content analysis approach. The sample consisted of older adults aged 60 years and older who participate in community groups in Porto Alegre (Brazil), and professors from two local universities. Final sample consisted of 22 participants, mean age was 70.2 ± 7.1. Coding and interpretation of data resulted in two thematic categories, named: falls' problematization and the perception of the risk factors for falling. The first category highlights that many older adults do not realize falling as a potential problem, which suggests that current preventive measures may not be reaching the target population. The second category shows that older adults' perceptions in relation to the risk factors exist, but often they are not avoided, because older adults consider their ability to "take care" as the main method of prevention, and due to the multifactorial nature of falls, this cannot be considered an efficient solution.

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

2008-10-01

This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

Predictive teratology: teratogenic risk-hazard identification partnered in the discovery process.

Science.gov (United States)

Augustine-Rauch, K A

2008-11-01

Unexpected teratogenicity is ranked as one of the most prevalent causes for toxicity-related attrition of drug candidates. Without proactive assessment, the liability tends to be identified relatively late in drug development, following significant investment in compound and engagement in pre clinical and clinical studies. When unexpected teratogenicity occurs in pre-clinical development, three principle questions arise: Can clinical trials that include women of child bearing populations be initiated? Will all compounds in this pharmacological class produce the same liability? Could this effect be related to the chemical structure resulting in undesirable off-target adverse effects? The first question is typically addressed at the time of the unexpected finding and involves considering the nature of the teratogenicity, whether or not maternal toxicity could have had a role in onset, human exposure margins and therapeutic indication. The latter two questions can be addressed proactively, earlier in the discovery process as drug target profiling and lead compound optimization is taking place. Such proactive approaches include thorough assessment of the literature for identification of potential liabilities and follow-up work that can be conducted on the level of target expression and functional characterization using molecular biology and developmental model systems. Developmental model systems can also be applied in the form of in vitro teratogenicity screens, and show potential for effective hazard identification or issue resolution on the level of characterizing teratogenic mechanism. This review discusses approaches that can be applied for proactive assessment of compounds for teratogenic liability.

Methods for automated identification of informative behaviors in natural bioptic driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Gang; Peli, Eli

2012-06-01

Visually impaired people may legally drive if wearing bioptic telescopes in some developed countries. To address the controversial safety issue of the practice, we have developed a low-cost in-car recording system that can be installed in study participants' own vehicles to record their daily driving activities. We also developed a set of automated identification techniques of informative behaviors to facilitate efficient manual review of important segments submerged in the vast amount of uncontrolled data. Here, we present the methods and quantitative results of the detection performance for six types of driving maneuvers and behaviors that are important for bioptic driving: bioptic telescope use, turns, curves, intersections, weaving, and rapid stops. The testing data were collected from one normally sighted and two visually impaired subjects across multiple days. The detection rates ranged from 82% up to 100%, and the false discovery rates ranged from 0% to 13%. In addition, two human observers were able to interpret about 80% of targets viewed through the telescope. These results indicate that with appropriate data processing the low-cost system is able to provide reliable data for natural bioptic driving studies.

Identification of seismically risk-sensitive systems and components in nuclear power plants: feasibility study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.; Boccio, J.; Farahzad, P.

1983-06-01

An approach for the identification of risk-sensitive components in a nuclear power plant during and after a seismic event is described. Application of the methodology to two hypothetical power plants - a Boiling Water Reactor and a Pressurized Water Reactor - are presented and the results are given in tabular and graphical form. Conclusions drawn and lessons learned through the course of this study, based on the relative importance of various accident scenarios and sensitivity analyses, are discussed. In addition, the areas that may need further investigation are identified

Fishermen´s underestimation of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Fabienne; Grøn, Sisse

2009-01-01

to stress the positive potentiale of risk. This can be explained by several, interrelated factors such as the nature of fishing, it-self a risk-based enterprise; a life-form promoting independency and identification with the enterprise's pecuniary priorities; working conditions upholding a feeling......  Fishermen's underestimation of risk   Background: In order to understand the effect of footwear and flooring on slips, trips and falls, 1st author visited 4 fishing boats.  An important spinoff of the study was to get an in situ insight in the way, fishermen perceive risk.   Objectives......: The presentation will analyse fishermen's risk perception, its causes and consequences.   Methods: The first author participated in 3 voyages at sea on fishing vessels (from 1 to 10 days each and from 2 to 4 crewmembers) where  interviews and participant observation was undertaken. A 4th fishing boat was visited...

THE IMPACT OF NATURAL RISKS ON AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena NIREAN

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate, topography and soil are natural conditions of basic agricultural yields. In general, Moldova has favorable climatic conditions and relief. Soils in the North have a high degree of fertility, while the central and southern regions are of average fertility. At the same time natural calamities such as droughts, late spring frosts, hail and floods have a destructive impact on crops. Climate instability is one of the main causes of unstable yields and is an inherent risk for agriculture of the country. More than that, most of the plots lose their natural fertility and require rehabilitation.

Identification of road user related risk factors, Deliverable 5.1 of the H2020 project SafetyCube (Safety CaUsation, Benefits and Efficiency).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Filtness, A. & Papadimitriou, E. (Eds.) Leskovšek, B. Focant, N. Martensen, H. Sgarra, V. Usami, D.S. Soteropoulos, A. Stadlbauer, S. Theofilatos, A. Yannis, G. Ziakopoulos, A. Diamandouros, K. Durso, C. Goldenbeld, C. Loenis, B. Schermers, G. Petegem, J.-H. van Elvik, R. Hesjevoll, I.S. Quigley, C. & Papazikou, E.

2017-01-01

The present Deliverable (D5.1) describes the identification and evaluation of infrastructure related risk factors. It outlines the results of Task 5.1 of WP5 of SafetyCube, which aimed to identify and evaluate infrastructure related risk factors and related road safety problems by (i) presenting a

The new generation of detection and identification equipment; Nouvelle generation de materiel de detection et d' identification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schultz, F.; Guerin, M.; Fort, Ph. [Mirion technologies, division HPH, BPI - 13113 Lamanon (France)

2009-07-01

The authors address the highly sensitive detection issue with real time identification of the risk nature, a problem which occurs every time a source is only fleetingly present (a pedestrian, a vehicle or an object on a conveyor belt passing by). They briefly present a range of instruments specially designed for this purpose, the SPIR-Ident instruments. These equipment use one or several large sensors, digital multichannel analyzers (one per sensor) and neutron and gamma measurements. Spectra are continuously processed, stabilized, linearized and normalized, and finally analyzed by an algorithm. The authors evoke the performance characterization and a return on experience after a 6 month-use for the control of passengers and luggage in airport

Environmental chemicals - how do we assess the risk (question mark)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somers, E.

Risk assessment is considered as comprising risk identification, risk estimation, and risk evaluation. The methodology of risk estimation is described and the key role of animal experimentation outlined, drawing attention to the inherent problems of extrapolating from animals to humans. The application of risk estimation to regulatory decision-making in Canada is given for chloroform in drinking water; asbestos in dry-wall patching compounds; arsenic emissions in air; nitrogen oxides; mercury in fish; and the food additive saccharin. Risk evaluation represents societal judgement and is ultimately political but a number of techniques can be of value in separating the competing factors, i.e., comparison with natural background or with other risks, balancing risks from alternatives, and risk-benefit analysis. However, the inherent limitations of a completely rational approach to risk assessment must always be recognized. (author)

Identification and quantification of the halogenated natural product BC-3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melcher, J.; Olbrich, D.; Vetter, W. [Hohenheim Univ., Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. fuer Lebensmittelchemie; Marsh, G. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Chemistry; Gaus, C.; Mueller, J.F. [National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, Coopers Plains (Australia)

2004-09-15

Halogenated natural products (HNPs) of marine origin are increasingly recognized as critical residues in foodstuff (e. g. fish) and environmental samples (e. g. marine mammals and birds). Some of these HNPs (Q1, MHC-1, BC-2, and HDBPs including BC-10) were detected in diverse fish and marine mammal samples at concentrations sometimes exceeding those of PCBs, DDT, and other anthropogenic pollutants. Recent studies with marine mammal samples from Australia led to the detection of six abundant HNPs (Q1, BC-1, BC-2, BC-3, BC-10, and BC-11). In the meantime, Q1 was identified as heptachloro-1{sup '}-methyl-1,2{sup '}-bipyrrole, BC-2 as 4,6-dibromo-2-(2{sup '},4{sup '}-dibromo)phenoxyanisole, BC- 10 as 1,1{sup '}-dimethyl-3,3{sup '},4,4{sup '}-tetrabromo-5,5{sup '}-dichloro-2,2{sup '}-bipyrrole, and BC-11 as 3,5-dibromo- 2-(3{sup '},5{sup '}-dibromo,2{sup '}-methoxy)phenoxyanisole. However the identity of BC-1 and BC-3 remained unclear. The goal of the present study was the identification of BC-3. The tetrabromo compound BC-3 has previously been detected in marine mammals from four continents. Furthermore, we attempted establishing quantitative concentrations in diverse marine biota samples.

Identification and classification of Serbia's historic floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prohaska Stevan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available River flooding in Serbia is a natural phenomenon which largely exceeds the scope of water management and hydraulic engineering, and has considerable impact on the development of Serbian society. Today, the importance and value of areas threatened by floods are among the key considerations of sustainable development. As a result, flood protection techniques and procedures need to be continually refined and updated, following innovations in the fields of science and technology. Knowledge of high flows is key for sizing hydraulic structures and for gauging the cost-effectiveness and safety of the component structures of flood protection systems. However, sizing of hydraulic structures based on computed high flows does not ensure absolute safety; there is a residual flood risk and a risk of structural failure, if a flood exceeds computed levels. In hydrological practice, such floods are often referred to as historic/loads. The goal of this paper is to present a calculation procedure for the objective identification of historic floods, using long, multiple-year series of data on high flows of natural watercourses in Serbia. At its current stage of development, the calculation procedure is based on maximum annual discharges recorded at key monitoring stations of the Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (HMS Serbia. When applied, the procedure results in the identification of specific historic maximum stages/floods (if any at all gauge sites included in the analysis. The probabilistic theory is then applied to assess the statistical significance of each identified historic flood and to classify the historic flood, as appropriate. At the end of the paper, the results of the applied methodology are shown in tabular and graphic form for various Serbian rivers. All identified historic floods are ranked based on their probability of occurrence (i.e., return period.

Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) of natural gas distribution pipelines in urban areas; Analise comparativa dos riscos da operacao de linhas de gas natural em areas urbanas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Luiz Fernando S. de [Energy Solutions South America (Brazil); Cardoso, Cassia de O.; Storch, Rafael [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The natural gas pipeline network grows around the world, but its operation inherently imposes a risk to the people living next to pipelines. Due to this, it is necessary to conduct a risk analysis during the environmental licensing in Brazil. Despite the risk analysis methodology is well established, some points of its application for the distribution pipelines are still under discussion. This paper presents a methodology that examines the influences of major projects and operating parameters on the risk calculation of a distribution pipeline accident in urban areas as well as the possible accident scenarios assessment complexity. The impact of some scenarios has been evaluated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics tool. The results indicate that, under certain conditions, the risks from the pipeline operation under operating pressures of 20 bar may be acceptable in location class 3 or even in class 4. These results play a very important role if management decisions on the growth of the distribution of natural gas network in densely populated areas as well as in the improvement of laws to control the activity of distribution of natural gas. (author)

Communicating with the public about the risks of naturally occurring asbestos

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire Hooker

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To explore the application of evidence based risk communication to community messaging about naturally occurring asbestos (NOA. Type of program or service: Risk communication education about NOA. Methods: We apply principles and determinants of risk communication to the topic of NOA. Results: We emphasise the importance of erring on the side of transparency and trust, even when officials may be concerned about inadvertently heightening needless public concern. We offer a range of practical suggestions for how to lower public concern and outrage relating to the issue of NOA when it arises in local contexts. Lessons learnt: Public concern and outrage can be reduced by favouring early and frequent communication, awareness and use of the ‘rule of threes’ in media communication, open acknowledgement of uncertainty, prioritising response to community concern above narrow myth-busting strategies, and supporting community action.

Early identification and preventive care for elevated cardiovascular disease risk within a remote Australian Aboriginal primary health care service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O'Dea Kerin

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the single greatest contributor to the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Our objective is to determine if holistic CVD risk assessment, introduced as part of the new Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Adult Health Check (AHC, results in better identification of elevated CVD risk, improved delivery of preventive care for CVD and improvements in the CVD risk profile for Aboriginal adults in a remote community. Methods Interrupted time series study over six years in a remote primary health care (PHC service involving Aboriginal adults identified with elevated CVD risk (N = 64. Several process and outcome measures were audited at 6 monthly intervals for three years prior to the AHC (the intervention and three years following: (i the proportion of guideline scheduled CVD preventive care services delivered, (ii mean CVD medications prescribed and dispensed, (iii mean PHC consultations, (iv changes in participants' CVD risk factors and estimated absolute CVD risk and (v mean number of CVD events and iatrogenic events. Results Twenty-five percent of AHC participants were identified as having elevated CVD risk. Of these, 84% had not been previously identified during routine care. Following the intervention, there were significant improvements in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD (30% to 53%, and prescription of CVD related medications (28% to 89% (P P = 0.004 following the intervention. However, there were no significant changes in the mean number of PHC consultations or mean number of CVD events or iatrogenic events. Conclusions Holistic CVD risk assessment during an AHC can lead to better and earlier identification of elevated CVD risk, improvement in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD, intensification of treatment for CVD, and improvements in participants' CVD risk profile. Further research is required on

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-10-01

This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

2016-05-03

The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

Buying natural gas in the spot market: risks related to the natural gas industry globalization; Aquisicao de gas natural em bases 'spot': riscos associados a globalizacao da industria do gas natural

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathias, Melissa Cristina [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Szklo, Alexandre Salem [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico

2008-07-01

The growth of the international natural gas trade during the last decade resulted in the expectation that this product would be traded as a commodity. This expectation created a boom in the investments related to the commercialization of natural gas between borders, especially in the distinct segments of the chain of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Different agents launched themselves into liquefaction and regasification enterprises, and the ordering of ships also showed significant growth. Despite that, the natural gas market still cannot be considered global, and international gas transactions are primarily done within regional markets. This article investigates the challenges posed to the constitution of a global natural gas market. These challenges represent risks to the commercialization of this product in spot bases, for the agents that launch themselves into projects to export or import LNG to be commercialized through short term contracts in the international market for this product. (author)

Identification of fall risk factors in older adult emergency department patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Christopher R; Scheatzle, Mark D; D'Antonio, Joyce A; Ricci, Paul T; Coben, Jeffrey H

2009-03-01

Falls represent an increasingly frequent source of injury among older adults. Identification of fall risk factors in geriatric patients may permit the effective utilization of scarce preventative resources. The objective of this study was to identify independent risk factors associated with an increased 6-month fall risk in community-dwelling older adults discharged from the emergency department (ED). This was a prospective observational study with a convenience sampling of noninstitutionalized elders presenting to an urban teaching hospital ED who did not require hospital admission. Interviews were conducted to determine the presence of fall risk factors previously described in non-ED populations. Subjects were followed monthly for 6 months through postcard or telephone contact to identify subsequent falls. Univariate and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the association of risk factors with 6-month fall incidence. A total of 263 patients completed the survey, and 161 (61%) completed the entire 6 months of follow-up. Among the 263 enrolled, 39% reported a fall in the preceding year, including 15% with more than one fall and 22% with injurious falls. Among those completing the 6 months of follow-up, 14% reported at least one fall. Cox regression analysis identified four factors associated with falls during the 6-month follow-up: nonhealing foot sores (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.73 to 7.95), a prior fall history (HR = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.32 to 5.18), inability to cut one's own toenails (HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.04 to 4.01), and self-reported depression (HR = 1.72, 95% CI = 0.83 to 3.55). Falls, recurrent falls, and injurious falls in community-dwelling elder ED patients being evaluated for non-fall-related complaints occur at least as frequently as in previously described outpatient cohorts. Nonhealing foot sores, self-reported depression, not clipping one's own toenails, and previous falls are all associated with falls after

Reducing the Risk of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Children Following Natural Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Mohay, Heather; Forbes, Nicole

2009-01-01

A significant number of children suffer long-term psychological disturbance following exposure to a natural disaster. Evidence suggests that a dose-response relationship exists, so that children and adolescents who experience the most intense or extensive exposure to the risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are likely to develop…

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

The implementation of local wisdom in reducing natural disaster risk: a case study from West Sumatera

Science.gov (United States)

Zulfadrim, Z.; Toyoda, Y.; Kanegae, H.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to introduce some local wisdoms in West Sumatra and propose their challenges that modern values have degraded its knowledge. In a contemporary context, traditional stories (written and oral stories) still relevant to be used and internalized in disaster risk reduction. Traditional knowledge or local wisdom is a system of knowledge derived from long experienced process in the past, adopted and handed over to next generation through evolutionary process. Indigenous or traditional knowledge can be practiced in understanding the nature of natural disaster, to propose the best action in mitigation, to respond in emergency phase, and to suggest more option for recovery process based on previous experience. The paper based on four weeks field research in west Sumatra which is known with their natural hazards due to its geographical location. In the beginning, this paper discusses the nature of local wisdom and how it can be matched in disaster management, then continues to the specific case how the traditional stories in West Sumatera can be internalized and integrated with contemporary disaster risk reduction. This paper proves that local wisdom can be useful as an effective instrument to deal with natural disaster or natural hazard.

Identification of Elderly Falling Risk by Balance Tests Under Dual Tasks Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ali Aslankhani

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to identify elderly fallers and non-fallers by balance test under dual tasks conditions. Methods & Materials: This study was an analyze-comparative study. Subjects were from three park of Tehran. Subjects were 20 older adults with outhistory of falls (aged 75.95±6.28 years and 21 older adults with a history of 2 or more falls in the previous one year (aged 72.50±7.31 Years . All subjects performed Timed Up & Go test under 3 conditions (TimedUp & Go, Timed Up & Go with numbers counter randomly [TUG cognitive], and Timed Up & Go while carrying a full cup of water [TUG manual]. A multivariate analysis of variance and logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: The results showed significant difference between elderly fallers and non fallers in fall risk composed dependent variable (P=0.0005, as the non fallers had greater score than the elderly fallers. Also, results showed that TUG cognitive has prediction capacity of elderly fall (P=0.013. Conclusion: Consequently, balance under cognitive dual task conditions could be useful method in identification of risk of falling and planning dual task exercise program and physiotherapy to preventfalls.

Profiling oil sands mixtures from industrial developments and natural groundwaters for source identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Richard A; Roy, James W; Bickerton, Greg; Rowland, Steve J; Headley, John V; Scarlett, Alan G; West, Charles E; Peru, Kerry M; Parrott, Joanne L; Conly, F Malcolm; Hewitt, L Mark

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify chemical components that could distinguish chemical mixtures in oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) that had potentially migrated to groundwater in the oil sands development area of northern Alberta, Canada. In the first part of the study, OSPW samples from two different tailings ponds and a broad range of natural groundwater samples were assessed with historically employed techniques as Level-1 analyses, including geochemistry, total concentrations of naphthenic acids (NAs) and synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS). While these analyses did not allow for reliable source differentiation, they did identify samples containing significant concentrations of oil sands acid-extractable organics (AEOs). In applying Level-2 profiling analyses using electrospray ionization high resolution mass spectrometry (ESI-HRMS) and comprehensive multidimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOF/MS) to samples containing appreciable AEO concentrations, differentiation of natural from OSPW sources was apparent through measurements of O2:O4 ion class ratios (ESI-HRMS) and diagnostic ions for two families of suspected monoaromatic acids (GC × GC-TOF/MS). The resemblance between the AEO profiles from OSPW and from 6 groundwater samples adjacent to two tailings ponds implies a common source, supporting the use of these complimentary analyses for source identification. These samples included two of upward flowing groundwater collected <1 m beneath the Athabasca River, suggesting OSPW-affected groundwater is reaching the river system.

Rapid screening of guar gum using portable Raman spectral identification methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Hirsch K; Wolfgang, Steven; Rodriguez, Jason D

2016-01-25

Guar gum is a well-known inactive ingredient (excipient) used in a variety of oral pharmaceutical dosage forms as a thickener and stabilizer of suspensions and as a binder of powders. It is also widely used as a food ingredient in which case alternatives with similar properties, including chemically similar gums, are readily available. Recent supply shortages and price fluctuations have caused guar gum to come under increasing scrutiny for possible adulteration by substitution of cheaper alternatives. One way that the U.S. FDA is attempting to screen pharmaceutical ingredients at risk for adulteration or substitution is through field-deployable spectroscopic screening. Here we report a comprehensive approach to evaluate two field-deployable Raman methods--spectral correlation and principal component analysis--to differentiate guar gum from other gums. We report a comparison of the sensitivity of the spectroscopic screening methods with current compendial identification tests. The ability of the spectroscopic methods to perform unambiguous identification of guar gum compared to other gums makes them an enhanced surveillance alternative to the current compendial identification tests, which are largely subjective in nature. Our findings indicate that Raman spectral identification methods perform better than compendial identification methods and are able to distinguish guar gum from other gums with 100% accuracy for samples tested by spectral correlation and principal component analysis. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Identification of risk factors affecting construction of projects: The case of emerging economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chipo Mellania Maseko

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Controlling project risks has become a daunting task in construction and this can be attributed to issues such as the nature of modern projects. The challenge is that risk appears unannounced at any project phase for various reasons and thereby affecting the performance and the success of unprepared projects. The current studies that explored risk matters include Pehlivan and Öztemir (2015, Katre, and Ghaitidak (2016 amongst others. However, there is absence of unanimity from these studies on risk factors in construction. Thus, this article was instigated in order to identify and classify risk factors that affect the chances of project success. The research methodology selected for this article comprised of peer-reviewed articles between the periods of 2007 to 2017. This approach involved a comprehensive scrutiny into scholarly articles to comprehend risks in construction projects. Following a conceptual analysis, eighty factors were identified and classified under the following; technical, construction, financial, socio-political, physical, organisational, and environmental and other risks. From these categories, political instability was, found to be the most influential risk factor in construction projects and this factor was classified within the socio-political category and this category has total of 11 factors. Finding suggests the need for further empirical study.

Study Of The Risks Arising From Natural Disasters And Hazards On Urban And Intercity Motorways By Using Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) Methods

Science.gov (United States)

DELİCE, Yavuz

2015-04-01

Highways, Located in the city and intercity locations are generally prone to many kind of natural disaster risks. Natural hazards and disasters that may occur firstly from highway project making to construction and operation stages and later during the implementation of highway maintenance and repair stages have to be taken into consideration. And assessment of risks that may occur against adverse situations is very important in terms of project design, construction, operation maintenance and repair costs. Making hazard and natural disaster risk analysis is largely depending on the definition of the likelihood of the probable hazards on the highways. However, assets at risk , and the impacts of the events must be examined and to be rated in their own. With the realization of these activities, intended improvements against natural hazards and disasters will be made with the utilization of Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method and their effects will be analyzed with further works. FMEA, is a useful method to identify the failure mode and effects depending on the type of failure rate effects priorities and finding the most optimum economic and effective solution. Although relevant measures being taken for the identified risks by this analysis method , it may also provide some information for some public institutions about the nature of these risks when required. Thus, the necessary measures will have been taken in advance in the city and intercity highways. Many hazards and natural disasters are taken into account in risk assessments. The most important of these dangers can be listed as follows; • Natural disasters 1. Meteorological based natural disasters (floods, severe storms, tropical storms, winter storms, avalanches, etc.). 2. Geological based natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, sinkholes, etc) • Human originated disasters 1. Transport accidents (traffic accidents), originating from the road surface defects (icing

A prototype web-GIS application for risk analysis of natural hazards in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Zar Chi; Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Gerber, Christian; Lévy, Sebastien

2016-04-01

Following changes in the system of Swiss subsidy in January 2008, the Swiss cantons and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) were forced to prioritize different natural hazard protection projects based on their cost-effectiveness, as a response to limited financial resources (Bründl et al., 2009). For this purpose, applications such as EconoMe (OFEV, 2016) and Valdorisk (DGE, 2016) were developed for risk evaluation and prioritization of mitigation projects. These tools serve as a useful decision-making instrument to the community of practitioners and responsible authorities for natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. However, there are several aspects which could be improved, in particular, the integration and visualization of spatial information interactively through a web-GIS interface for better risk planning and evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we aim to develop an interactive web-GIS application based on the risk concepts applied in Switzerland. The purpose of this tool is to provide a rapid evaluation of risk before and after protection measures, and to test the efficiency of measures by using a simplified cost-benefit analysis within the context of different protection projects. This application allows to integrate different layers which are necessary to calculate risk, in particular, hazard intensity (vector) maps for different scenarios (such as 30, 100 and 300 years of return periods based on Swiss guidelines), exposed objects (such as buildings) and vulnerability information of these objects. Based on provided information and additional parameters, risk is calculated automatically and results are visualized within the web-GIS interface of the application. The users can modify these input information and parameters to create different risk scenarios. Based on the resultant risk scenarios, the users can propose and visualize (preliminary) risk reduction measures before realizing the actual design and dimensions of such protective

Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

Science.gov (United States)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

2014-05-01

Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

RESEARCH ON RISK MANAGEMENT, AS PART OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, IN ENTITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florin\tBOGHEAN

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Romanian companies are nowadays facing process of extinction of decisions based on risk and uncertainty, as a consequence of the permanent transforming process of the economy and because of the privatization, restructuring and globalization activities. The main forms of risk are can be grouped in eight categories: economical risks, financial risks, commercial risks, manufacturing risks, political risks, social risks, juridical risks, natural risks. Through its nature the decision is referring to the future, mainly being provisional. In any decisional process developed at the company level, there are involved in the same time some economical, techniques, juridical, human and managerial variables. As a consequence of the decision (generally and of managerial decision (particularly, because of its complexity and its contextual deter in its growth there are associated many risks. The main objective of this paper is to capture the factors that influence the decisional process, in the context of the implementation of corporate governance in view of the company’s resources, production methods and its operational environment and the identification of decision making support systems. I consider that the study contributes to the development of knowledge in the risk management field associated with decision making processes in the context of efficient corporate governance, based on a series of new elements and authenticity.

Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Peduzzi

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

Disaster Management System as an Element of Risk Management for Natural Disaster Systems Using the PESTLE Framework

OpenAIRE

Sarwar, D; Ramachandran, M; Hosseinian Far, A

2017-01-01

Recently, we have witnessed so many natural catastrophes such as earthquakes in Japan, severe floods in the UK, US and many other parts of the world. Consequently businesses have been losing tens of billions of dollars as a result of various natural and man-made disasters. Disaster Management System (DMS) have proven to be important means for reducing risks associated with such damages to businesses. A DMS can minimize and in some cases, eliminates the risks through technical, management or o...

Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods.

Science.gov (United States)

Watzl, Bernhard; Gelencsér, Eva; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Kulling, Sabine; Lydeking-Olsen, Eva; Rowland, Ian; Schilter, Benoît; van Klaveren, Jakob; Chiodini, Alessandro

2012-11-01

There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population. Copyright © 2011 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Parameter Identification of Hydrodynamic Bearing-Rotor System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Song

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A new method called modal parameter genetic time domain identification was employed to study the characteristics of the bearing-rotor system. A multifrequency signal decomposition technology to identify the main components of the measured signal and reject the image mode produced by noise has been used. The first- and second-order natural frequency and damping ratios of the shaft system are identified. Furthermore, because of the deficiency of the traditional least square method, a new genetic identification method to identify the bearing dynamic characteristic parameters has been proposed. The method has been effective albeit with few testing points and operation cases. The derivation of oil-film dynamic coefficients could also provide a basis for shaft system natural vibration characteristic and vibration response analysis. Using the identified dynamic coefficients as the supporting condition, the shaft system modal characteristics were studied. The calculated first- and second-order natural frequencies match quite well those obtained from the modal parameter identification. It was proved that the modal parameter and physical parameter identification methods utilized in this paper are reasonable.

Agreement between student dietitians' identification of refeeding syndrome risk with refeeding guidelines, electrolytes and other dietitians: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, K; Owers, E; Palmer, M

2015-12-01

Limited research exists concerning how consistently and accurately student and newly-graduated dietitians are identifying refeeding syndrome risk in hospitalised patients. The present study aimed to determine the consistency of students' and newly-graduated dietitians' classification of refeeding syndrome risk, as well as agreement with the application of comparison tools such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines, patients' electrolytes and supplementation, and clinical dietitians previously surveyed. Recently-graduated and final-year Griffith University dietetics students were invited to complete an online survey. The survey questioned demographics and asked respondents to classify the level of refeeding syndrome risk (i.e. none, some, high, unsure) in 13 case studies. Electrolytes and supplementation data were sourced from electronic patient records. Chi-squared tests, t-tests and linear regression analyses were conducted. Fifty-three eligible people responded [n = 53 of 112, mean (SD) age 26 (4) years, 89% female, 34% graduates]. Respondents' answers were generally more consistent and more likely to agree with comparison tools when two tools showed the same level of refeeding syndrome risk (49-98%, β = 0.626-1.0994, P refeeding identification guidelines, electrolyte levels, supplementation and dietitians previously surveyed did not differ by graduate status, degree level, clinical placement status or having read refeeding syndrome guidelines recently (P > 0.05). Students' and new graduates' identification of refeeding syndrome risk improved when there was consistency between guidelines, electrolytes and dietitians' responses. More research is needed to improve the evidence behind refeeding guidelines, with the aim of enhancing the accuracy and consistency of assessment. © 2014 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Early identification of pneumonia patients at increased risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection in Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anwar E. Ahmed

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background: The rapid and accurate identification of individuals who are at high risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV infection remains a major challenge for the medical and scientific communities. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the screening of suspected cases of MERS-CoV infection in patients who have developed pneumonia. Methods: A two-center, retrospective case–control study was performed. A total of 360 patients with confirmed pneumonia who were evaluated for MERS-CoV infection by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR between September 1, 2012 and June 1, 2016 at King Abdulaziz Medical City in Riyadh and King Fahad General Hospital in Jeddah, were included. According to the rRT-PCR results, 135 patients were positive for MERS-CoV and 225 were negative. Demographic characteristics, clinical presentations, and radiological and laboratory findings were collected for each subject. Results: A risk prediction model to identify pneumonia patients at increased risk of MERS-CoV was developed. The model included male sex, contact with a sick patient or camel, diabetes, severe illness, low white blood cell (WBC count, low alanine aminotransferase (ALT, and high aspartate aminotransferase (AST. The model performed well in predicting MERS-CoV infection (area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC 0.8162, on internal validation (AUC 0.8037, and on a goodness-of-fit test (p = 0.592. The risk prediction model, which produced an optimal probability cut-off of 0.33, had a sensitivity of 0.716 and specificity of 0.783. Conclusions: This study provides a simple, practical, and valid algorithm to identify pneumonia patients at increased risk of MERS-CoV infection. This risk prediction model could be useful for the early identification of patients at the highest risk of MERS-CoV infection. Further validation of the prediction model on a

University of all knowledge. Nature and risks. Volume 6; Universite de tous les savoirs. La nature et les risques. Volume 6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michaud, Y.

2002-02-01

This small book belongs to a collection of six volumes which synthesizes the content of a cycle of 366 conferences about sciences, techniques, intellectual productions, cultures etc, given each day of the year 2000 by specialists of the relevant domains. This 6. volume is devoted to todays and tomorrows stakes of nature: bio-diversity; co-evolution; molecular dialogue of symbioses; the vegetal chemical factory; the appropriation of the living matter: from biology to the social debate; the ethical stakes of genetics; todays feeding and risk perception; tomorrows feeding; safety of food products: prevention - surveillance - crisis; nature and agriculture; function and response of plant leaves to aggressions and herbicides; fishes and men (resources management); plants, molecules and drugs; the future of fossil fuels; the future of the environment; water pollution and cleansing; wastes: how the eliminate, re-valorize or avoid them; soils pollution; the ambiguousness of sustainable development policies; liability, risk and precaution. (J.S.)

Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guikema, Seth D.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis has historically been developed for situations in which measured data about the overall reliability of a system are limited and expert knowledge is the best source of information available. There continue to be a number of important problem areas characterized by a lack of hard data. However, in other important problem areas the emergence of information technology has transformed the situation from one characterized by little data to one characterized by data overabundance. Natural disaster risk assessments for events impacting large-scale, critical infrastructure systems such as electric power distribution systems, transportation systems, water supply systems, and natural gas supply systems are important examples of problems characterized by data overabundance. There are often substantial amounts of information collected and archived about the behavior of these systems over time. Yet it can be difficult to effectively utilize these large data sets for risk assessment. Using this information for estimating the probability or consequences of system failure requires a different approach and analysis paradigm than risk analysis for data-poor systems does. Statistical learning theory, a diverse set of methods designed to draw inferences from large, complex data sets, can provide a basis for risk analysis for data-rich systems. This paper provides an overview of statistical learning theory methods and discusses their potential for greater use in risk analysis

Ecological risk assessment and natural resource management on the Outer Continental Shelf

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goeke, G.; Roscigno, P.F.

1993-01-01

Since 1988 beginning with the Drilling Impact Assessment Task Force, Minerals Management Service (MMS) has used formal risk analysis methodologies in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the potential impact of gas and oil activities son natural resources. In the process, a list of assumptions, critical for the assessment of potential impacts, was generated. These assumptions were incorporated into a scenario where several levels of certainty described the hazards in terms of expected frequency of effects and the seriousness of the consequences. A risk matrix was generated from these assumptions and was used to generate a risk assessment for the various impact-producing factors on ecological endpoints. Recommendations for risk management were also provided so that decision-makers were given insight into acceptable/unacceptable levels of risk. This process insured that those issues with the highest potential impact were given the highest priority in terms of resources. One of the most important aspect so f the development of a risk assessment was determining the frequency of effects of the impact-producing factors. A paucity of data concerning the effects of impact-producing factors on estuarine and marine ecosystems remains the primary limiting factor in the development of ecological risk assessments. Presented here is a broad outline of the risk assessment methodology using chemosynthetic communities found in the Gulf of Mexico as an example

A Qualitative Study on Knowledge and Attitude towards Risk Factors, Early Identification and Intervention of Infant Hearing Loss among Puerperal Mothers- A Short Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Dudda, Ravi; Muniyappa, Hanumanth Prasad; Puttaraju, Sahana; Lakshmi, M S

2017-07-01

Maternal active participation and their support are critical for the success of early hearing loss detection program. Erroneous maternal decisions may have large life long consequences on the infant's life. The mothers' knowledge and their attitudes towards infant hearing loss is the basis for their decisions. The present study was done to determine the mothers' knowledge and their attitude towards risk factors of infant hearing loss, its early identification and intervention and also awareness of effect of consanguinity on hearing loss. In this cross-sectional questionnaire survey study, a total of 100 mothers were interviewed using the questionnaire which consisted of three sections namely risk factors, early identification and early intervention of hearing loss. Chi-square test was used to establish relationship between consanguineous and non-consanguineous mother's responses to its effect on hearing loss. A p-value consanguinity and benefits of early identification. However, mothers were least aware of neonatal jaundice, NICU admission (>5 days), signs of late-onset and neural hearing loss, management of hearing loss, hearing aid fitting and therapy necessity, which might interfere in early detection and intervention of hearing loss. It is crucial to educate mothers on few risk factors and management of hearing loss to reduce its consequences.

Molecular Identification of Leishmania spp. in Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) From Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Cevallos, Varsovia; Morales, Diego; Baldeón, Manuel E; Cárdenas, Paúl; Rojas-Silva, Patricio; Ponce, Patricio

2017-01-01

Abstract The detection and identification of natural infections in sand flies by Leishmania protozoan species in endemic areas is a key factor in assessing the risk of leishmaniasis and in designing prevention and control measures for this infectious disease. In this study, we analyzed the Leishmania DNA using nuclear ribosomal internal transcript spacer (ITS) sequences. Parasite DNA was extracted from naturally infected, blood-fed sand flies collected in nine localities considered leishmaniasis-endemic foci in Ecuador. The species of parasites identified in sand flies were Leishmania major-like, Leishmania naiffi, Leishmania mexicana, Leishmania lainsoni, and “Leishmania sp. siamensis”. Sand fly specimens of Brumptomyia leopoldoi, Mycropigomyia cayennensis, Nyssomyia yuilli yuilli, Nyssomyia trapidoi, Pressatia triacantha, Pressatia dysponeta, Psychodopygus carrerai carrerai, Psychodopygus panamensis, and Trichophoromyia ubiquitalis were found positive for Leishmania parasite. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the disease in high-risk areas of Ecuador. PMID:28981860

Molecular Identification of Leishmania spp. in Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) From Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Quiroga, Cristina; Cevallos, Varsovia; Morales, Diego; Baldeón, Manuel E; Cárdenas, Paúl; Rojas-Silva, Patricio; Ponce, Patricio

2017-11-07

The detection and identification of natural infections in sand flies by Leishmania protozoan species in endemic areas is a key factor in assessing the risk of leishmaniasis and in designing prevention and control measures for this infectious disease. In this study, we analyzed the Leishmania DNA using nuclear ribosomal internal transcript spacer (ITS) sequences. Parasite DNA was extracted from naturally infected, blood-fed sand flies collected in nine localities considered leishmaniasis-endemic foci in Ecuador.The species of parasites identified in sand flies were Leishmania major-like, Leishmania naiffi, Leishmania mexicana, Leishmania lainsoni, and "Leishmania sp. siamensis". Sand fly specimens of Brumptomyia leopoldoi, Mycropigomyia cayennensis, Nyssomyia yuilli yuilli, Nyssomyia trapidoi, Pressatia triacantha, Pressatia dysponeta, Psychodopygus carrerai carrerai, Psychodopygus panamensis, and Trichophoromyia ubiquitalis were found positive for Leishmania parasite. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the disease in high-risk areas of Ecuador. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Press freedom, oil exports, and risk for natural disasters: a challenge for climato-economic theory?

Science.gov (United States)

Arantes, Joana; Grace, Randolph C; Kemp, Simon

2013-10-01

Does the interaction between climactic demands, monetary resources, and freedom suggest a more general relationship between the environmental challenges that human societies face and their resources to meet those challenges? Using data on press freedom (Van de Vliert 2011a), we found no evidence of a similar interaction with natural resources (as measured by oil exports) or risk for natural disasters.

Determining the explosion risk level and the explosion hazard area for a group of natural gas wells

Science.gov (United States)

Gligor, A.; Petrescu, V.; Deac, C.; Bibu, M.

2016-11-01

Starting from the fact that the natural gas engineering profession is generally associated with a high occupational risk, the current paper aims to help increase the safety of natural gas wells and reduce the risk of work-related accidents, as well as the occurrence of professional illnesses, by applying an assessment method that has proven its efficiency in other industrial areas in combination with a computer-aided design software. More specifically, the paper focuses on two main research directions: assessing the explosion risk for employees working at natural gas wells and indicating areas with a higher explosion hazard by using a modern software that allows their presentation in 3D. The appropriate zoning of industrial areas allows to group the various functional areas function of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous element, such as an explosive atmosphere and subsequently it allows also to correctly select the electrical and mechanical equipment that will be used in that area, since electrical apparatuses that are otherwise found in normal work environments cannot generally be used in areas with explosion hazard, because of the risk that an electric spark, an electrostatic discharge etc. ignites the explosive atmosphere.

CLARITY – ChiLdhood Arthritis Risk factor Identification sTudY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Justine A

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aetiology of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA is largely unknown. We have established a JIA biobank in Melbourne, Australia called CLARITY – ChiLdhood Arthritis Risk factor Identification sTudY, with the broad aim of identifying genomic and environmental disease risk factors. We present here study protocols, and a comparison of socio-demographic, pregnancy, birth and early life characteristics of cases and controls collected over the first 3 years of the study. Methods Cases are children aged ≤18 years with a diagnosis of JIA by 16 years. Controls are healthy children aged ≤18 years, born in the state of Victoria, undergoing a minor elective surgical procedure. Participant families provide clinical, epidemiological and environmental data via questionnaire, and a blood sample is collected. Results Clinical characteristics of cases (n = 262 are similar to those previously reported. Demographically, cases were from families of higher socio-economic status. After taking this into account, the residual pregnancy and perinatal profiles of cases were similar to control children. No case-control differences in breastfeeding commencement or duration were detected, nor was there evidence of increased case exposure to tobacco smoke in utero. At interview, cases were less likely to be exposed to active parental smoking, but disease-related changes to parent behaviour may partly underlie this. Conclusions We show that, after taking into account socio-economic status, CLARITY cases and controls are well matched on basic epidemiological characteristics. CLARITY represents a new study platform with which to generate new knowledge as to the environmental and biological risk factors for JIA.

Patient identification and tube labelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Dongen-Lases, Edmée C; Cornes, Michael P; Grankvist, Kjell

2016-01-01

of phlebotomy procedures with the CLSI H3-A6 guideline was unacceptably low, and that patient identification and tube labelling are amongst the most critical steps in need of immediate attention and improvement. The process of patient identification and tube labelling is an essential safety barrier to prevent...... patient identity mix-up. Therefore, the EFLM Working Group aims to encourage and support worldwide harmonisation of patient identification and tube labelling procedures in order to reduce the risk of preanalytical errors and improve patient safety. With this Position paper we wish to raise awareness...... and provide recommendations for proper patient and sample identification procedures....

Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian Shan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential risk factors and consequences of the failure. Then construct the Bow-tie model, use the quantitative analysis of Bayesian network to find the weak links in the system, and make a prediction of the control measures to reduce the rate of the accident. In order to deal with the uncertainty existing in the determination of the probability of basic events, fuzzy logic method is used. Results of a case study show that the most likely causes of natural gas pipeline leakage occurrence are parties ignore signage, implicit signage, overload, and design defect of auxiliaries. Once the leakage occurs, it is most likely to result in fire and explosion. Corresponding measures taken on time will reduce the disaster degree of accidents to the least extent.

Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Jones

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however, we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields, with important consequences for food security, markets, transport, and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas, whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods

The new generation of detection and identification equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, F.; Guerin, M.; Fort, Ph.

2009-01-01

The authors address the highly sensitive detection issue with real time identification of the risk nature, a problem which occurs every time a source is only fleetingly present (a pedestrian, a vehicle or an object on a conveyor belt passing by). They briefly present a range of instruments specially designed for this purpose, the SPIR-Ident instruments. These equipment use one or several large sensors, digital multichannel analyzers (one per sensor) and neutron and gamma measurements. Spectra are continuously processed, stabilized, linearized and normalized, and finally analyzed by an algorithm. The authors evoke the performance characterization and a return on experience after a 6 month-use for the control of passengers and luggage in airport

Comprehensive risk assessment and source identification of selected heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg, As) in tidal saltmarsh sediments of Shuangtai Estuary, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chang-Fa; Li, Bing; Wang, Yi-Ting; Liu, Yuan; Cai, Heng-Jiang; Wei, Hai-Feng; Wu, Jia-Wen; Li, Jin

2017-10-06

Heavy metals do not degrade and can remain in the environment for a long time. In this study, we analyzed the effects of Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg, and As, on environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological hazard, and source identification of elements in sediments using data collected from samples taken from Shuangtai tidal wetland. The comprehensive pollution indices were used to assess environmental quality; fuzzy similarity analysis and geoaccumulation index were used to analyze pollution accumulation; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and clustering analysis were used to analyze pollution source; environmental risk index and ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The results showed that the environmental quality was either clean or almost clean. Pollutant enrichment analysis showed that the four sub-regions had similar pollution-causing metals to the background values of the soil element of the Liao River Plain, which were ranked according to their similarity. Source identification showed that all the elements were correlated. Ecological hazard analysis showed that the environmental risk index in the study area was less than zero, posing a low ecological risk. Ecological risk of the six elements was as follows: As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.G. Vygovskyy

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its consequences, or source of origin, which makes the relevance of research topics. As a result of scientific research has been refined interpretation of risk as an economic category, the characteristics of the company associated with the probability of unforeseen situations that may lead to negative and positive impacts, assessment of which requires the development of alternatives for management decisions. Clarification of the definition focuses on the possibility (probability of a favorable (unfavorable events which require certain corrective action management unit of the enterprise. The author emphasizes the mandatory features of the category of «risk», in particular: the concept of risk is always associated with the uncertainty of the future; event occurring has implications for the enterprise (both negative and positive; consequences for necessitates the development of a number of alternative solutions to the possible elimination of the negative consequences of risky events; risk – a mandatory attribute of modern management (its value is enhanced in terms of market conditions; subject to risk assessment and management by the company. Dedicated and updated features contribute to the clarification of the nature of the economic risk and categorical conceptual apparatus of risk management.

Processing of Natural Signals like EMG for Person Identification using NUFB-GMM

OpenAIRE

Suresh M; P G Krishnamohan; Mallikarjun S Holi

2014-01-01

Physiological signals like Electrocardiogram(ECG) and Electroencephalogram(EEG), including deoxyribonucleic acid(DNA) are person specific and distinct for different persons. The motor unit firing pattern, motor unit recruitment order and characteristics of muscle changing from person to person, and therefore Electromyogram (EMG) can be used for person identification. EMG records obtained from a single channel data acquisition system are used to develop person identification system. Non-unifor...

A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco; Caramella, Davide; Vano, Eliseo; Semelka, Richard C.; Picano, Eugenio

2012-01-01

Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient’ s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider–patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy); Caramella, Davide [Radiology Department, Pisa University, Pisa (Italy); Vano, Eliseo [San Carlos Hospital, Radiology Department, Complutense University, Madrid (Spain); Semelka, Richard C. [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Picano, Eugenio, E-mail: picano@ifc.cnr.it [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy)

2012-11-15

Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient' s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider-patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

Examining the Nature of the Association Between Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Nicotine Dependence: A Familial Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman, Joseph; Petty, Carter R.; Hammerness, Paul; Woodworth, K. Yvonne; Faraone, Stephen V.

2013-01-01

Objective The main aim of this study was to use familial risk analysis to examine the association between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and nicotine dependence. Methods Subjects were children with (n = 257) and without (n = 229) ADHD of both sexes ascertained form pediatric and psychiatric referral sources and their first-degree relatives (N = 1627). Results Nicotine dependence in probands increased the risk for nicotine dependence in relatives irrespective of ADHD status. There was no evidence of cosegregation or assortative mating between these disorders. Patterns of familial risk analysis suggest that the association between ADHD and nicotine dependence is most consistent with the hypothesis of independent transmission of these disorders. Conclusions These findings may have important implications for the identification of a subgroup of children with ADHD at high risk for nicotine dependence based on parental history of nicotine dependence. PMID:23461889

Identification of manganese as a toxicant in a groundwater treatment system: Addressing naturally occurring toxicants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodfellow, W. Jr.; Sohn, V.; Richey, M.; Yost, J.

1995-01-01

Effluent from a groundwater remediation system at a bulk oil storage and distribution terminal has been chronically toxic to Ceriodaphnia dubia. The remediation system was designed in response to a hydrocarbon plume in the area of the terminal. The remediation system consists of a series of groundwater recovery wells and groundwater intercept trench systems with groundwater treatment and phased-separated hydrocarbon recovery systems. The groundwater treatment and petroleum recovery systems consist of oil/water separators, product recovery tanks, air strippers, filters, and carbon adsorption units. The characteristics of this effluent are low total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, and hardness concentrations as well as meeting stringent NPDES permit requirements for lead, copper, zinc, mercury, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and BTEX. Additional priority pollutant evaluations revealed no compounds of concern. Performance of a Toxicity identification Evaluation (TIE) indicated that manganese was the principle toxicant in the effluent. Manganese is a naturally occurring constituent in this groundwater source and is not added to the treatment system. This paper will present the results of the TIE with a discussion of treatability/control options for manganese control at this facility. Recommendations for addressing naturally occurring toxicants that are not a result of the facility's operations will also be presented

Improvement of Bank Risks Management on the Basis of “Monitoring – Identification – Protection” Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zabezhaylo Ivan Mikhaylovich

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The banking system in contemporary conditions becomes the critically important subsystem of any national economy. To ensure a successful and profitable operation of the bank the effective management of associated risks is necessary. A technique of banking risk management, which includes three functional blocks: monitoring, identification and protection against risks, is proposed in the article. A key element of the proposed method is the stage of optimization of risk management in the context of the particular situation of data analysis and decision making. The two-factor model of optimizing the choice of means of risk management is argued. This model implies two options: to minimize the level of allowable risks when you fix the volume of the resources required for reliable risk management in this particular situation on an acceptable (target, desired level; or to minimize the volume of the resources required for reliable in this situation analyzed risk management when you fixed appropriate risks at an acceptable level. The technique is based on an integrated approach, the basic elements of which are the abilities to work with different types of data, and to use common methods and means of data processing. The proposed method makes it possible to integrate qualitative and quantitative risk management tools in a single process of data analysis and decision making support. The proposed method of banking risk management is a tool to detail the national regulators recommendations by taking into account the specific (context features of a particular financial institution management during its implementation. The technique allows for contextual tools setting, depending on the application field.

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

Identification of risks stemming from new communication technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lessis, Vasileios; Taylor, J.R.; Kozin, Igor

Advanced distributed communication technologies play an important role today in the control and maintenance of safety -critical systems. However, the excessively optimistic reliance on the new technology without ecognizing the threats against its successful functioning, being able to maintain...... proved to be effective tools in developing more reliable and robust systems. As technology is developing fast though, a new need for an effective hazard identification methodology has emerged. To enhance the predictive performance of hazard identification in advanced distributed communication systems, we...... have envisioned and currently developing a multilevel-multidimensional HAZOP methodology. The methodology introduces a new creative thinking stimulation model to substitute the conventional guideword-based approaches that is based on a multiple level and dimension exploration of the system under...

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa Lizarazu, X.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

Science.gov (United States)

Addepalli, Rajendra P.

This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using

Animal-derived natural products of Sowa Rigpa medicine: Their pharmacopoeial description, current utilization and zoological identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeshi, Karma; Morisco, Paolo; Wangchuk, Phurpa

2017-07-31

The Bhutanese Sowa Rigpa medicine (BSM) uses animal parts in the preparation of numerous polyingredient traditional remedies. Our study reports the taxonomical identification of medicinal animals and the description of traditional uses in English medical terminologies. To taxonomically identify the medicinal animals and their derived natural products used as a zootherapeutic agents in BSM. First, the traditional textbooks were reviewed to generate a list of animal products described as ingredients. Second, animal parts that are currently used in Bhutan were identified. Third, the ethnopharmacological uses of each animal ingredients were translated into English medical terminologies by consulting Traditional Physicians, clinical assistants, pharmacognosists, and pharmacists in Bhutan. Fourth, the animal parts were taxonomically identified and their Latin names were confirmed by crosschecking them with online animal databases and relevant scientific literature. The study found 73 natural products belonging to 29 categories derived from 45 medicinal animals (36 vertebrates and 9 invertebrates), comprising of 9 taxonomic categories and 30 zoological families. Out of 116 formulations currently produced, 87 of them contain one or more extracts and products obtained from 13 medicinal animals to treat more than 124 traditionally classified illnesses. Only five animal ingredients were found available in Bhutan and rest of the animal parts are being imported from India. Out of 73 natural products described in the traditional textbooks, only 13 of them (some omitted and few substituted by plants) are currently included in 87 formulations of BSM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age at natural menopause and risk of type 2 diabetes : A prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

T. Muka (Taulant); E. Asllanaj (Eralda); N. Avazverdi (Naim); L. Jaspers (Loes); N. Stringa (Najada); J. Milic (Jelena); S. Ligthart (Symen); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); J.S.E. Laven (Joop); M. Kavousi (Maryam); A. Dehghan (Abbas); O.H. Franco (Oscar)

2017-01-01

markdownabstract__Aims/hypothesis__ In this study, we aimed to examine the association between age at natural menopause and risk of type 2 diabetes, and to assess whether this association is independent of potential mediators. __Methods__ We included 3639 postmenopausal women from the

Implementation of a computational system at the Center for Nuclear Technology Development, for systematization the application of the FMEA - Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, for identification of dangerous and developed risks evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa, Danyel Pontelo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de

2009-01-01

The regulatory bodies request risks evaluations for nuclear and radioactive licensing purposes. In Brazil those evaluations are contained by the safety analysis reports requested by the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), and risk analysis studies requested by the environment organisms. A risk evaluation includes the identification of the risks and the accident sequence which can occur, and the estimation of the frequency and his undesirable effects on the industrial installations, the public, and the environment. The identification and the risk analysis are particularly important for the implementation of a health, environment and safety integrated management according to the regulation instruments ISO 14001, BS 8800 and OHSAS 18001. The utilization of the risk identification techniques and the risk analysis is performed at the non nuclear industry, in a non standard form by the various sectors of an enterprise, diminishing the effectiveness of the recommended actions based on risk indexes. However, for the nuclear licensing, the CNEN request through their regulatory instruments and standard formats, that the risks, the failure mechanisms and detection be identified, which can allow the preventive and mitigate actions. This paper proposes the utilization of the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) technique in the licensing process. It was implemented a software through the Excel program, using the Visual Basic for Applications program which allows the automation and the standardization of FMEA studies as well

Naturally occurring radionuclides in agricultural products: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanlon, E.A.

1994-01-01

Low levels of naturally occurring radionuclides exist in phosphatic clays, a by-product of phosphatic mining and beneficiation processes. Concerns about these radionuclides entering the human food chain were an immediate research priority before the phosphate clays could be reclaimed for intensive agricultural purposes. Efforts included the assembly of a large body of data from both sons and plants, part of which were produced by the Polk County (Florida) Mined Lands Agricultural Research/Demonstration Project MLAR/DP. Additional detailed studies involving dairy and beef cattle (Bos taurus) were conducted by researchers working with the MLAR/DP. A national symposium was conducted in which data concerning the MLAR/DP work and other research projects also dealing with naturally occurring radionuclides in agriculture could be discussed. The symposium included invited review papers dealing with the identification of radionuclide geological origins, the geochemistry and movement of radionuclides within the environment, mechanisms of plant uptake, entry points into the food chain, and evaluation of dose and risk assessment to the consumer of low levels of radionuclides. The risk to human health of an individual obtaining 0.1 of his or her dietary intake from crops produced on phosphatic clays increased by 1 in 5 x 10 6 /yr above a control individual consuming no food grown on phosphatic clays. Leaf tissues were found to be generally higher than fruit, grain, or root tissues. The natural range in radionuclide content among various food types was greater than the difference in radionuclides content between the same food produced on phosphatic clays vs. natural soils. 19 refs

Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

2016-01-01

Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

On System Identification of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Perisic, Nevena; Pedersen, B.J.

Recently several methods have been proposed for the system identification of wind turbines which can be considered as a linear time-varying system due to the operating conditions. For the identification of linear wind turbine models, either black-box or grey-box identification can be used....... The operational model analysis (OMA) methodology can provide accurate estimates of the natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of the systems as long as the measurements have a low noise to signal ratio. However, in order to take information about the wind turbine into account a grey...

Identification of seniors at risk (ISAR) screening tool in the emergency department: implementation using the plan-do-study-act model and validation results.

Science.gov (United States)

Asomaning, Nana; Loftus, Carla

2014-07-01

To better meet the needs of older adults in the emergency department, Senior Friendly care processes, such as high-risk screening are recommended. The identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) tool is a 6-item validated screening tool for identifying elderly patients at risk of the adverse outcomes post-ED visit. This paper describes the implementation of the tool in the Mount Sinai Hospital emergency department using a Plan-Do-Study-Act model; and demonstrates whether the tool predicts adverse outcomes. An observational study tracked tool implementation. A retrospective chart audit was completed to collect data about elderly ED patients during 2 time periods in 2010 and 2011. Data analysis compared the characteristics of patients with positive and negative screening tool results. The identification of Seniors at Risk tool was completed for 51.6% of eligible patients, with 61.2% of patients having a positive result. Patients with positive screening results were more likely to be over age 79 (P = .003); be admitted to hospital (P Risk tool was challenged by problematic compliance with tool completion. Strategies to address this included tool adaptation; and providing staff with knowledge of ED and inpatient geriatric resources and feedback on completion rates. Positive screening results predicted adverse outcomes in elderly Mount Sinai Hospital ED patients. © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

OpenAIRE

Kasprowicz T.

2017-01-01

Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

Recognition without Identification for Words, Pseudowords and Nonwords

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Jason; Lee, Karen; Flora, David B.

2008-01-01

Three experiments examined whether the representations underlying recognition memory familiarity can be episodic in nature. Recognition without identification [Cleary, A. M., & Greene, R. L. (2000). Recognition without identification. "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition," 26, 1063-1069; Peynircioglu, Z. F. (1990).…

Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

2013-07-01

Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kioussi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such

Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suter II, G.W.

2003-06-18

The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

Identification of high-risk areas for harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena bycatch using remote electronic monitoring and satellite telemetry data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Tougaard, J.

2016-01-01

grounds, quantify fishing effort and document harbour porpoise bycatch. Movement data from 66 harbour porpoises equipped with satellite transmitters from 1997 to 2012 were used to model population density. A simple model was constructed to investigate the relationship between the response (number...... telemetry or REM data allow for identification of areas of potential high and low bycatch risk, and better predictions are obtained when combining the 2 sources of data. The final model can thus be used as a tool to identify areas of bycatch risk...... and lower risk of porpoise bycatch. From May 2010 to April 2011, 4 commercial gillnet vessels were equipped with remote electronic monitoring (REM) systems. The REM system recorded time, GPS position and closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage of all gillnet hauls. REM data were used to identify fishing...

Analyses in Support of Risk-Informed Natural Gas Vehicle Maintenance Facility Codes and Standards: Phase II.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris Bensdotter; Muna, Alice Baca; Ehrhart, Brian David

2018-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed natural gas fueled vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operating procedures. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase II work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest using risk ranking. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed to estimate the location and behavior of natural gas releases based on these scenarios. Specific code conflicts were identified, and ineffective code requirements were highlighted and resolutions proposed. These include ventilation rate basis on area or volume, as well as a ceiling offset which seems ineffective at protecting against flammable gas concentrations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge Bill Houf (SNL -- Retired) for his assistance with the set-up and post-processing of the numerical simulations. The authors also acknowledge Doug Horne (retired) for his helpful discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the support from the Clean Cities program of DOE's Vehicle Technology Office.

Risk management

OpenAIRE

Mcmanus, John

2009-01-01

Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

A systematic review of the risks factors associated with the onset and natural progression of hydrocephalus.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Stephanie; Donnan, Jennifer; Morrissey, Andrea; Sikora, Lindsey; Bowen, Sonya; Collins, Kayla; MacDonald, Don

2017-07-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically assess and synthesize the world literature on risk factors for the onset and natural progression of hydrocephalus, thereby providing a basis for policy makers to identify appropriate risk management measures to mitigate the burden of disease in Canada. Evidence for risk factors was limited for both onset and progression. Two meta-analyses that examined a risk factor for onset met the inclusion criteria. One found a significant protective effect of prenatal vitamins among case control studies, but not cohort/randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The second found maternal obesity to be a significant risk factor for congenital hydrocephalus. Significant risk factors among 25 observational studies included: biological (multiple births, maternal parity, common cold with fever, maternal thyroid disease, family history, preterm birth, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, ischemic ECG changes, higher cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration following vestibular schwannoma); lifestyle (maternal obesity, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, maternal diabetes, maternal age), healthcare-related (caesarean section, interhospital transfer, drainage duration following subarachnoid hemorrhage, proximity to midline for craniectomy following traumatic brain injury); pharmaceutical (prenatal exposure to: tribenoside, metronidazole, anesthesia, opioids); and environmental (altitude, paternal occupation). Three studies reported on genetic risk factors: no significant associations were found. There are major gaps in the literature with respect to risk factors for the natural progression of hydrocephalus. Only two observational studies were included and three factors reported. Many risk factors for the onset of hydrocephalus have been studied; for most, evidence remains limited or inconclusive. More work is needed to confirm any causal associations and better inform policy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neisa Angelica

2010-04-01

potential invasion of privacy if the data is disclosed, and the motives and capacity of the data recipient to re-identify the data. Conclusion The models we developed can be used to manage the re-identification risk from small geographic areas. Being able to choose among three possible thresholds, a data custodian can adjust the definition of "small geographic area" to the nature of the data and recipient.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-01

The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

The injection of biomethane produced from sludge from sewage stations into the French natural gas distribution network. Scientific and technical support report. Scientific and technical support related to the problem of injection of biomethane produced from sludges from sewage stations into the French natural gas distribution network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Jaeg, Jean-Philippe; Leroux, Carole; Pernelet-Joly, Valerie; Solal, Cecilia; Saddoki, Sophia

2013-04-01

This report aimed at producing an assessment of health risks (for consumers as well as for professionals) related to the injection of biogas produced from water treatment stations into the natural gas transport and distribution network. Data on the chemical composition of raw bio-gases produced by sewage stations and of biomethane produced from sludge from these stations have been obtained from different sources and measurements. After a recall of works performed in answer to a first expertise mission which comprised an approach to the assessment of microbiological risks, this report presents the various data and their sources. It discusses the characterisation (i.e. the various components) of raw bio-gases and of biomethane produced from sludge from sewage stations, and of natural gas. The last part proposes an identification of risks through a qualitative approach

The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk Taking : Evidence from a Natural Experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gropp, R.; Grundl, C.; Guttler, A.

2010-01-01

In 2001, government guarantees for savings banks in Germany were removed following a law suit. We use this natural experiment to examine the effect of government guarantees on bank risk taking, using a large data set of matched bank/borrower information. The results suggest that banks whose

Post-Mastectomy and Phantom Breast Pain: Risk Factors, Natural History, and Impact on Quality of Life

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dworkin, Robert

2003-01-01

.... The primary aims of this research were to identify risk factors for these chronic pain syndromes following surgical procedures for breast cancer, characterize their natural history, and examine...

Identification of management units using population genetic data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palsboll, Per J.; Berube, Martine; Allendorf, Fred W.

The identification of management units (MUs) is central to the management of natural populations and is crucial for monitoring the effects of human activity upon species abundance. Here, we propose that the identification of MUs from population genetic data should be based upon the amount of genetic

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

The Swiss Virtual Campus Project NAHRIS: Experiences from a Multidisciplinary E-Learning Project in the Natural Hazard and Risk Management Domain

Science.gov (United States)

Lienert, Christophe; Bischof, Nicole; Hurni, Lorenz

2009-01-01

The overall goal of the Swiss Virtual Campus project Dealing with Natural Hazards and Risk (NAHRIS) is to create a common educational course program that compiles the most recent knowledge in the field of natural hazards and risk management. Several higher education institutes from all parts of Switzerland were involved in the realization of this…

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

Mental health, life functioning and risk factors among people exposed to frequent natural disasters and chronic poverty in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Pollack, Amie Alley; Weiss, Bahr; Trung, Lam Tu

2016-01-01

Background People living in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are at increased risk for exposure to major natural disasters, which places them at increased risk for mental health problems. Evidence is less clear, however, regarding the effects of less severe but more frequent natural disasters, which are likely to increase due to global climate change. Aims To examine the mental health and life functioning, and their predictors, of people living in central coastal Vietnam ? an area char...

Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W.; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J.; Coppo, R.; Haffner, D.; Harambat, J.; Stefanidis, C.; Shitza, D.; Kramar, R.; Oberbauer, R.; Baiko, S.; Sukalo, A.; van Hoeck, K.; Collart, F.; des Grottes, J. M.; Pokrajac, D.; Resić, H.; Prnjavorac, B.; Roussinov, D.; Batinić, D.; Lemac, M.; Slavicek, J.; Seeman, T.; Vondrak, K.; Heaf, J. G.; Toots, U.; Finne, P.; Grönhagen-Riska, C.; Couchoud, C.; Lasalle, M.; Sahpazova, E.; Gersdorf, G.; Barth, C.; Scholz, C.; Tönshoff, B.; Ioannidis, G.; Kapogiannis, A.; Papachristou, F.; Reusz, G.; Túri, S.; Szabó, L.; Szabó, T.

2016-01-01

Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret

Factors Influencing the Identification of Sustainable Opportunities by SMEs: Empirical Evidence from Zambia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Progress Choongo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study uses the model of Patzelt and Shepherd (2011 to examine the factors influencing the identification of sustainable opportunities among SMEs in a developing country, Zambia. The factors under investigation include knowledge of the natural/social environment, perception of threats to the natural/social environment, altruism towards others and entrepreneurial knowledge. We interviewed 220 owner-managers in the trading and service sector who supply goods and services to the mining industry in Zambia. We found that altruism towards others was partially supported by our empirical results while the positive effects of knowledge of the natural/social environment and perception of threats to the natural/social environment on the identification of sustainable opportunities were not supported. Contrary to our expectations, entrepreneurial knowledge does not positively moderate the relationship between explanatory variables and the identification of sustainable opportunities. In sum, we found only limited empirical support for the model of Patzelt and Shepherd (2011 concerning the identification of sustainable opportunities. Our findings contribute to literature on entrepreneurship and sustainable opportunity identification by showing what factors influence the identification of sustainable opportunities. This can help us to create awareness among entrepreneurs regarding the effects of entrepreneurial activities on the environment and society; consequently, stimulating entrepreneurs to identify sustainable opportunities.

Food supply chain disruption due to natural disaster: Entities, risks and strategies for resilience

Science.gov (United States)

The resilience of food supply chain (FSC) to disruptions has not kept pace with the extended, globalized and complex network of modern food chain. This chapter presents a holistic view of the FSC, interactions among its components, risks and vulnerabilities of disruption in the context of natural d...

Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

2010-05-01

Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

OpenAIRE

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

2012-01-01

In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

Fuzzy rule-based modelling for human health risk from naturally occurring radioactive materials in produced water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shakhawat, Chowdhury; Tahir, Husain; Neil, Bose

2006-01-01

Produced water, discharged from offshore oil and gas operations, contains chemicals from formation water, condensed water, and any chemical added down hole or during the oil/water separation process. Although, most of the contaminants fall below the detection limits within a short distance from the discharge port, a few of the remaining contaminants including naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are of concern due to their bioavailability in the media and bioaccumulation characteristics in finfish and shellfish species used for human consumption. In the past, several initiatives have been taken to model human health risk from NORM in produced water. The parameters of the available risk assessment models are imprecise and sparse in nature. In this study, a fuzzy possibilistic evaluation using fuzzy rule based modeling has been presented. Being conservative in nature, the possibilistic approach considers possible input parameter values; thus provides better environmental prediction than the Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. The uncertainties of the input parameters were captured with fuzzy triangular membership functions (TFNs). Fuzzy if-then rules were applied for input concentrations of two isotopes of radium, namely 226 Ra, and 228 Ra, available in produced water and bulk dilution to evaluate the radium concentration in fish tissue used for human consumption. The bulk dilution was predicted using four input parameters: produced water discharge rate, ambient seawater velocity, depth of discharge port and density gradient. The evaluated cancer risk shows compliance with the regulatory guidelines; thus minimum risk to human health is expected from NORM components in produced water

Eyewitness Identification Reform: Data, Theory, and Due Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Steven E

2012-05-01

Some commentators view my analyses (Clark, 2012, this issue) as an important step forward in assessing the costs and benefits of eyewitness identification reform. Others suggest that the trade-off between correct identifications lost and false identifications avoided is well-known; that the expected utility model is misspecified; and that the loss of correct identifications due to the use of reformed eyewitness identification procedures is irrelevant to policy decisions, as those correct identifications are the illegitimate product of suggestion and lucky guesses. Contrary to these criticisms, the loss of correct identifications has not been adequately considered in theoretical or policy matters, criticisms regarding the various utilities do not substantively change the nature of the trade-off, and the dismissal of lost correct identifications is based not on data but on an outdated theory of recognition memory. © The Author(s) 2012.

Importance of Environmental Education in Socio-Natural Risk Management in Five Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martha Melizza Ordóñez-Díaz

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Considering environmental education as a social tool allowing individuals to achieve a significant knowledge of the inhabited environment, to reduce the probability of occurrence of a disaster, and to respond to the presence of natural phenomena to which people are vulnerable, this article aims to generate a space for reflection on the importance of environmental education in the management of the social and natural risk in five countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. For this purpose, the paper presents a descriptive review of primary and secondary bibliographical sources referring to the performance of the management of social and natural risks related to environmental education in Colombia, Nicaragua, Mexico, Chile, and Jamaica between 1994 and 2015. In this period, a solid administrative and legislative organization of this management and environmental education is evident, but these two themes are clearly separated when implementing citizen projects: a situation that has generated shortcomings in the management of natural disasters, specifically under the principles of precaution and prevention. For this reason, this article offers a series of recommendations that include the dissemination of information, the creation of centers for the management of risk reduction, the strengthening of communication strategies, and the establishment of response plans and post-disaster recovery.

Systems-level analysis of risk genes reveals the modular nature of schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-Jian; Su, Bing

2018-05-19

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder with high heritability. Genetic studies (especially recent genome-wide association studies) have identified many risk genes for schizophrenia. However, the physical interactions among the proteins encoded by schizophrenia risk genes remain elusive and it is not known whether the identified risk genes converge on common molecular networks or pathways. Here we systematically investigated the network characteristics of schizophrenia risk genes using the high-confidence protein-protein interactions (PPI) from the human interactome. We found that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected PPI network (P = 4.15 × 10 -31 ). Compared with the background genes, the schizophrenia risk genes in the interactome have significantly higher degree (P = 5.39 × 10 -11 ), closeness centrality (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ), betweeness centrality (P = 1.29 × 10 -11 ), clustering coefficient (P = 2.22 × 10 -2 ), and shorter average shortest path length (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ). Based on the densely interconnected PPI network, we identified 48 hub genes and 4 modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia genes. We showed that the proteins encoded by schizophrenia hub genes have significantly more direct physical interactions. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed that cell adhesion, cell cycle, immune system response, and GABR-receptor complex categories were enriched in the modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia risk genes. Our study reveals that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected molecular network and demonstrates the modular nature of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Smith

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators, fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1 the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2 the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.

Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mcquaid, J.

1998-01-01

The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

Identification of bacteriology and risk factor analysis of asymptomatic bacterial colonization in pacemaker replacement patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Ming Chu

Full Text Available Recent researches revealed that asymptomatic bacterial colonization on PMs might be ubiquitous and increase the risk of clinical PM infection. Early diagnosis of patients with asymptomatic bacterial colonization could provide opportunity for targeted preventive measures.The present study explores the incidence of bacterial colonization of generator pockets in pacemaker replacement patients without signs of infection, and to analyze risk factors for asymptomatic bacterial colonization.From June 2011 to December 2013, 118 patients underwent pacemaker replacement or upgrade. Identification of bacteria was carried out by bacterial culture and 16S rRNA sequencing. Clinical risk characteristics were analyzed.The total bacterial positive rate was 37.3% (44 cases, and the coagulase-negative Staphylococcus aureus detection rate was the highest. Twenty two (18.6% patients had positive bacterial culture results, of which 50% had coagulase-negative staphylococcus. The bacterial DNA detection rate was 36.4 % (43 cases. Positive bacterial DNA results from pocket tissues and the surface of the devices were 22.0% and 29.7%, respectively. During follow-up (median, 27.0 months, three patients (6.8%, 3/44 became symptomatic with the same genus of microorganism, S. aureus (n=2 and S. epidermidis (n=1. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that history of bacterial infection, use of antibiotics, application of antiplatelet drugs, replacement frequency were independent risk factors for asymptomatic bacterial colonization.There was a high incidence of asymptomatic bacterial colonization in pacemaker patients with independent risk factors. Bacterial culture combined genetic testing could improve the detection rate.

HIGH RISK ZONES ON FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES DISASTERS IN RWANDA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nsengiyumva J.ean Baptiste

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk management as an issue at stake worldwide shifts its emphases from post disaster to pre-disaster phases. Management activities required in pre-disaster phases, such as risk assessment, hazard identification, preparedness or preventive and mitigation measures needs detailed information about hazard characteristics, social, economic, structural vulnerability and capacity. That information is not usually available in many different countries, as it is the case in Rwanda. Based on the international experiences and practices, knowledge of disaster prone areas can be assumed as an alternative for detailed information acquisition, thus contributing to effective disaster risk management. Identification of disaster higher risk zones on floods and landslides, can lead to better understanding of disaster risk and putting in place measures for risk reduction. Consequently, as Rwanda is prone to natural hazards with lack of adequate information that is essential for effective disaster risk management, due to limited scientific researches; this study aims to address that gap. The results revealed that some areas of the North-Western parts of Rwanda are highly prone to floods and landslides, namely Burera, Musanze, Rulindo, Nyabihu, Ngororero and Rubavu Districts. This is aggravated by some triggering factors such as steep slopes, soil types, heavy rains, landuse Practices and others. Intensity and frequency of disaster events vary from district to district and this geographical dispersal confirms the non-spatial clustering (as confirmed by Moran’s I analysis of risks due to uneven level of Disaster vulnerabilities, coping capacities and available hazards whereby lack of normal distribution of hazards all over all Districts.

Test reactor risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

1976-04-01

A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

2015-09-25

The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Water pollution risk associated with natural gas extraction from the Marcellus Shale.

Science.gov (United States)

Rozell, Daniel J; Reaven, Sheldon J

2012-08-01

In recent years, shale gas formations have become economically viable through the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. These techniques carry potential environmental risk due to their high water use and substantial risk for water pollution. Using probability bounds analysis, we assessed the likelihood of water contamination from natural gas extraction in the Marcellus Shale. Probability bounds analysis is well suited when data are sparse and parameters highly uncertain. The study model identified five pathways of water contamination: transportation spills, well casing leaks, leaks through fractured rock, drilling site discharge, and wastewater disposal. Probability boxes were generated for each pathway. The potential contamination risk and epistemic uncertainty associated with hydraulic fracturing wastewater disposal was several orders of magnitude larger than the other pathways. Even in a best-case scenario, it was very likely that an individual well would release at least 200 m³ of contaminated fluids. Because the total number of wells in the Marcellus Shale region could range into the tens of thousands, this substantial potential risk suggested that additional steps be taken to reduce the potential for contaminated fluid leaks. To reduce the considerable epistemic uncertainty, more data should be collected on the ability of industrial and municipal wastewater treatment facilities to remove contaminants from used hydraulic fracturing fluid. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pika, A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Fidge, C.J.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Wynn, M.T.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

2013-01-01

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to

The Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risks of Austria: first results for fluvial and pluvial floods

Science.gov (United States)

Mergili, Martin; Tader, Andreas; Glade, Thomas; Neuhold, Clemens; Stiefelmeyer, Heinz

2015-04-01

Incoherent societal adaptation to natural processes results in significant losses every year. A better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risks, and of particular hot spots in a given region or period, is essential for reducing adverse impacts. Commonly, different hazard and risk estimations are performed within individual approaches based on tailor-made concepts. This works well as long as specific cases are considered. The advantage of such a procedure is that each individual hazard and risk is addressed in the best possible manner. The drawback, however, consists in the fact that the results differ significantly in terms of quality and accuracy and therefore cannot be compared. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy and concept which uses similar data sources of equivalent quality in order to adequately analyze the different natural hazards and risks at broader scales. The present study is aiming to develop such a platform. The project Risk:ATlas focuses on the design of an atlas visualizing the most relevant natural hazards and, in particular, possible consequences for the entire territory of Austria. Available as a web-based tool and as a printed atlas, it is seen as a key tool to improve the basis for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk transfer. The atlas is founded on those data sets available for the entire territory of Austria at a consistent resolution and quality. A 1 m resolution DEM and the official cadastre and building register represent the core, further data sets are employed according to the requirements for each natural hazard and risk. In this contribution, the methodology and the preliminary results for fluvial and pluvial floods and their consequences to buildings for three selected test areas in different types of landscapes (rural, urban and mountainous) are presented. Flooding depths expected for annualities of 30, 100 and 300 are derived from existing data sets for fluvial floods and are computed

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

Identification of Natural Ventilation Parameters in a Greenhouse with Continuous Roof Vents, Using a PSO and GAs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelhafid HASNI

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Although natural ventilation plays an important role in the affecting greenhouse climate, as defined by temperature, humidity and CO2 concentration, particularly in Mediterranean countries, little information and data are presently available on full-scale greenhouse ventilation mechanisms. In this paper, we present a new method for selecting the parameters based on a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm and a genetic algorithm (GA which optimize the choice of parameters by minimizing a cost function. The simulator was based on a published model with some minor modifications as we were interested in the parameter of ventilation. The function is defined by a reduced model that could be used to simulate and predict the greenhouse environment, as well as the tuning methods to compute their parameters. This study focuses on the dynamic behavior of the inside air temperature and humidity during ventilation. Our approach is validated by comparison with some experimental results. Various experimental techniques were used to make full-scale measurements of the air exchange rate in a 400 m2 plastic greenhouse. The model which we propose based on natural ventilation parameters optimized by a particle swarm optimization was compared with the measurements results. Furthermore, the PSO and the GA are used to identify the natural ventilation parameters in a greenhouse. In all cases, identification goal is successfully achieved using the PSO and compared with that obtained using the GA. For the problem at hand, it is found that the PSO outperforms the GA.

The prevalence and nature of sexual harassment in the workplace: A model for early identification and effective management thereof

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Ramsaroop

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the prevalence and nature of sexual harassment and, assesses the impact of supervisory relations, levels of interaction, appearance and personality and types of behaviour. The study was undertaken at a tertiary institution using a sample of 74 employees, drawn by means of simple random sampling. Data was collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which was statistically tested and, analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results indicate that the sub-dimensions of the study impact significantly on sexual harassment. Based on the findings, a model for early identification and effective management of sexual harassment in the workplace was generated.

Collaborative risk governance in informal urban areas: The case of Wallacedene temporary relocation area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia J. Zweig

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM is an emancipatory approach that aims to empower local communities in reducing their own risks. A community risk assessment (CRA is an essential element of CBDRM, incorporating highly participatory processes of hazard identification and vulnerability analysis. By incorporating local knowledge and insights, together with those contributed by other external role players, the nature of local risks can be more accurately identified, giving consideration to their causal factors, the nature of their realised impacts or potential effects on a local community and the challenges posed in addressing them. Reflecting on the process and outcomes of a CRA conducted in an informal settlement in the Cape Town metropolitan area, this article describes how one such risk assessment contributed to building local agency through a process of collaborative engagement. Offered as an example of possible best practice, it illustrates both the immediate and potentially longer term benefits to be derived from such a collaborative process, suggesting that a community-based risk assessment may contribute significantly to building more resilient communities. It concludes with a consideration of the challenges of sustaining longer term risk reduction efforts.

Clinical Decision-Making Following Disasters: Efficient Identification of PTSD Risk in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Carla Kmett; Cohen, Joseph R; Adams, Zachary W; Youngstrom, Eric A; Soltis, Kathryn; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to utilize a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach in order to improve clinical decision-making for adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Specifically we assessed theoretically-driven individual, interpersonal, and event-related vulnerability factors to determine which indices were most accurate in forecasting PTSD. Furthermore, we aimed to translate these etiological findings by identifying clinical cut-off recommendations for relevant vulnerability factors. Our study consisted of structured phone-based clinical interviews with 2000 adolescent-parent dyads living within a 5-mile radius of tornados that devastated Joplin, MO, and northern Alabama in Spring 2011. Demographics, tornado incident characteristics, prior trauma, mental health, and family support and conflict were assessed. A subset of youth completed two behavioral assessment tasks online to assess distress tolerance and risk-taking behavior. ROC analyses indicated four variables that significantly improved PTSD diagnostic efficiency: Lifetime depression (AUC = .90), trauma history (AUC = .76), social support (AUC = .70), and family conflict (AUC = .72). Youth were 2-3 times more likely to have PTSD if they had elevated scores on any of these variables. Of note, event-related characteristics (e.g., property damage) were not related to PTSD diagnostic status. The present study adds to the literature by making specific recommendations for empirically-based, efficient disaster-related PTSD assessment for adolescents following a natural disaster. Implications for practice and future trauma-related developmental psychopathology research are discussed.

Prototype of a web - based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aye, Z.C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.H.; van Westen, C.J.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and

A review of research on the identification of factors influencing the social response to technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.

1977-01-01

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for technological development are being met by a variety of individual and group demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and a consideration of social values and concerns in the regulatory process. This has created conditions of conflict with some groups sponsoring proposals intended to fulfill perceived social needs while other groups, with different perceptions of society's needs, work actively in opposition. Only in recent years, as the rate of technological innovation has increased, has significant attention been given to the rapid rate of social and cultural change and the associated risks which have emerged. The degree to which an individual responds to these changes is related to his perception of their importance in his life; likewise, the repsonse to risk situations, on the individual and societal level, is based upon how the risks are perceived. The social response to the introduction of nuclear power provides an interesting case in point: here several studies have indicated that nuclear power plants might be considered ''safe''; however, nuclear power is nevertheless being opposed in many countries by those who perceive it as an unacceptable source of risk. This paper reviews research oriented toward understanding the response to technological risks through identification of the specific technical, social and psychological factors which influence their perception. Several such factors have been identified which relate to the risk object, the individual at risk, and the risk situation in which the individual encounters this object. Nuclear power was found to be characterised by more of the factors tending to increase risk perception than was any other technology. It is hypothesized that, in part due to its high ''risk visibility'' and an unconscious psychological coupling with the death imagery of nuclear weapons, nuclear energy

Post-Mastectomy and Phantom Breast Pain: Risk Factors, Natural History, and Impact on Quality of Life

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dworkin, Robert

1999-01-01

... from substantial reductions in quality of life. The primary aims of this research project are to identify risk factors for these chronic pain syndromes following surgical procedures for breast cancer, characterize their natural history...

Fingerprints identification of radiotherapy patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lartigau, E.F.; Forrest, M.; Audebaud, S.; Dewitte, A.; Giscard, S.; Leclercq, B.

2012-01-01

The identification of patient plays a key role in the quality and safety of radiotherapy. It does impact on all professional staff and on patients. After the regulatory authority approval (Cnil), a pilot study has been performed on 1901 patients. Acceptance has been very high (> 93%) with a low risk of mis-identification (< 0.1%). The next step will be to implement and test a bimodal system in order to improve registration capacity and sensitivity. (authors)

Natural radioactivity in water supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horner, J.K.

1985-01-01

This book outlines the scientific aspects of the control of natural radioactivity in water supplies, as well as the labyrinthine uncertainties in water quality regulation concerning natural radiocontamination of water. The author provides an introduction to the theory of natural radioactivity; addresses risk assessment, sources of natural radiocontamination of water, radiobiology of natural radioactivity in water, and federal water law concerning natural radiocontamination. It presents an account of how one city dealt with the perplexes that mark the rapidly evolving area of water quality regulation. The contents include: radioactivity and risk; an introduction to the atomic theory; an introduction to natural radioactivity; risk assessment; uranium and radium contamination of water; radiobiology of uranium and radium in water. Determination of risk from exposure to uranium and radium in water; the legal milieu; one city's experience; and summary: the determinants of evolving regulation

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

AN OPERATING MODEL FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT APPLIED TO ITALIAN SITES OF COMMUNITY IMPORTANCE: IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SOIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Rastelli

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The fast development of agro-biotechnologies asks for a harmonized approach in risk analysis of GMOs releases. An Italian experts group has elaborated an operating model for the environmental risk assessment (OMERA based on the assumption that the occurring of a risk is related to the presence of four components: source, diffusion factors, dispersal routes, receptors. This model has been further developed to become a Decision Supporting System based on Fuzzy logic (FDSS to assessors and notifiers. It is a web based Questionnaire that conducts the user through a decision tree from the source to the receptors and leads to the identification and assessment of the risks. The FDSS has been tested on case studies, simulating, as source, herbicide tolerant oilseed rape and insect resistant maize. The resulting identified potential effects on soil are changes to structure and microbial diversity.

Use of Moringa oleifera Flower Pod Extract as Natural Preservative and Development of SCAR Marker for Its DNA Based Identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Gull, Iram; Javed, Attia; Aslam, Muhammad Shahbaz; Mushtaq, Roohi; Athar, Muhammad Amin

2016-01-01

The use of Moringa oleifera as natural food preservative has been evaluated in the present study. In addition, for quality assurance, the study has also been focused on the shelf life of product to authenticate the identification of plant by development of DNA based marker. Among the different extracts prepared from flower pods of Moringa oleifera, methanol and aqueous extract exhibited high antibacterial and antioxidant activity, respectively. The high phenolic contents (53.5 ± 0.169 mg GAE/g) and flavonoid contents (10.9 ± 0.094 mg QE/g) were also recorded in methanol and aqueous extract, respectively. Due to instability of bioactive compounds in aqueous extract, methanol extract is considered as potent natural preservative. The shelf life of methanol extract was observed for two months at 4°C under dark conditions. The developed SCAR primers (MOF217/317/MOR317) specifically amplified a fragment of 317 bp from DNA of Moringa oleifera samples collected from different regions of Punjab province of Pakistan. The methanol extract of Moringa oleifera flower pods has great potential to be used as natural preservative and nutraceutical in food industry.

The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

2000-06-01

The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahin, Cem; Shahidehpour, Mohammad; Erkmen, Ismet

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for a generation company (GENCO). ► Water inflow, wind, and NG interruption uncertainties are considered. ► Diversification of assets and bilateral contracts enhance payoff and decrease financial risk. ► The utilization of NG in the risk-neutral GENCO case increases as the wind uncertainty increases. ► NG utilization is lowered by the algorithm to decrease in risk-considered case. -- Abstract: This paper studies a generating company (GENCO)’s midterm (a few months to a year) scheduling payoffs and risks in volatile operating conditions. The proposed algorithm considers the integration of intermittent wind units into a GENCO’s generation assets and coordinates the GENCO’s hourly wind generation schedule with that of natural gas (NG) units (with volatile gas prices) and hydro units (with water inflow forecast) for maximizing the GENCO’s payoff. The proposed midterm GENCO model applies market price forecasts to the risk-constrained stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for calculating the GENCO’s risk in energy and ancillary services markets. The proposed PBUC minimizes the cost of (a) NG contracts, storage, startup and shutdown, (b) startup and shutdown of cascaded hydro units, and (c) penalty for defaulting on the scheduled power delivery. Simulation results show that the diversification of generating assets including bilateral contracts (BCs) could enhance the GENCO’s midterm planning by increasing the expected payoff and decreasing the financial risk.

Characterization and Identification of Natural Terpenic Resins employed in “Madonna con Bambino e Angeli” by Antonello da Messina using Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russo Mario

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Natural resins were frequently employed as adhesives or as components of oleo-resinous media in paintings in the past. The identification of vegetable resins is still an open problem. The aim of this paper is to analyze by GC-MS some vegetable resins frequently employed in paintings, such as Venice turpentine, dammar, copal, elemi in order to identify their main component in raw and aged samples. Some molecules are proposed as chemical “markers” to identify these natural resins. Results The results obtained on standards allowed us to successfully analyze sample collected from one work of art: the Madonna with the Infant and Angels by Antonello da Messina (XV century. Conclusion The results obtained confirm that the painting the artist originally used a mixture of linseed oil and natural resin (Venice turpentine as binding medium.

Molecular subtyping of breast cancer improves identification of both high and low risk patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rossing, Maria; Østrup, Olga; Majewski, Wiktor W.

2018-01-01

classification and final reports were available prior to the multidisciplinary conference. Using a prognostic standard mortality rate index (PSMRi) developed by the Danish Breast Cancer Group (DBCG) 39 patients were assigned with an intermediate risk and among these 16 (41%) were furthermore diagnosed...... by the multi-gene signature assigned with a luminal A tumor and consequently spared adjuvant chemotherapy. There was overall agreement between mRNA derived and IHC hormone receptor status, whereas IHC Ki67 protein proliferative index proved inaccurate, compared to the mRNA derived index. Forty-one patients...... with basal-like (basL) subtypes were screened for predisposing mutations regardless of clinical predisposition. Of those 17% carried pathogenic mutations. Conclusion: Transcriptome based subtyping of breast tumors evidently reduces the need for adjuvant chemotherapy and improves identification of women...

The psychology of chronic post-surgical pain: new frontiers in risk factor identification, prevention and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinrib, Aliza Z; Azam, Muhammad A; Birnie, Kathryn A; Burns, Lindsay C; Clarke, Hance; Katz, Joel

2017-11-01

In an era of considerable advances in anaesthesiology and pain medicine, chronic pain after major surgery continues to be problematic. This article briefly reviews the known psychological risk and protective factors associated with the development of chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP). We begin with a definition of CPSP and then explain what we mean by a risk/protective factor. Next, we summarize known psychological risk and protective factors for CPSP. Psychological interventions that target risk factors and may impact postsurgical pain are reviewed, including the acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT)-based approach to CPSP prevention and management we use in the Transitional Pain Service (TPS) at the Toronto General Hospital. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for research in risk factor identification and psychological interventions to prevent CPSP. Several pre-surgical psychological risk factors for CPSP have been consistently identified in recent years. These include negative affective constructs, such as anxiety symptoms, depressive symptoms, pain catastrophizing and general psychological distress. In contrast, relatively few studies have examined psychological protective factors for CPSP. Psychological interventions that target known psychological risk factors while enhancing protective psychological factors may reduce new incidence of CPSP. The primary goal of our ACT intervention is to teach patients a mindful way of responding to their postsurgical pain that empowers them to interrupt the negative cycle of pain, distress, behavioural avoidance and escalating opioid use that can limit functioning and quality of life while paradoxically amplifying pain over time. Early clinical outcome data suggest that patients who receive care from TPS physicians reduce their pain and opioid use, yet patients who also receive our ACT intervention have a larger decrease in daily opioid dose while reporting less pain interference and lower depression scores.

Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas electricity contracts: A summary of the California Department of Water Resources contracts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bachrach, Devra; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Golove, William

2003-03-12

Electricity markets in the United States have witnessed unprecedented instability over the last few years, with substantial volatility in wholesale market prices, significant financial distress among major industry organizations, and unprecedented legal, regulatory and legislative activity. These events demonstrate the considerable risks that exist in the electricity industry. Recent industry instability also illustrates the need for thoughtful resource planning to balance the cost, reliability, and risk of the electricity supplied to end-use customers. In balancing different supply options, utilities, regulators, and other resource planners must consider the unique risk profiles of each generating source. This paper evaluates the relative risk profiles of renewable and natural gas generating plants. The risks that exist in the electricity industry depend in part on the technologies that are used to generate electricity. Natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plant additions in the United States. To some, this emphasis on a single fuel source signals the potential for increased risk. Renewable generation sources, on the other hand, are frequently cited as a potent source of socially beneficial risk reduction relative to natural gas-fired generation. Renewable generation is not risk free, however, and also imposes certain costs on the electricity sector. This paper specifically compares the allocation and mitigation of risks in long-term natural gas-fired electricity contracts with the allocation and mitigation of these same risks in long-term renewable energy contracts. This comparison highlights some of the key differences between renewable and natural gas generation that decision makers should consider when making electricity investment and contracting decisions. Our assessment is relevant in both regulated and restructured markets. In still-regulated markets, the audience for this report clearly includes regulators and the utilities they

Impact of reduced-risk insecticides on soybean aphid and associated natural enemies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohnesorg, Wayne J; Johnson, Kevin D; O'Neal, Matthew E

2009-10-01

Insect predators in North America suppress Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae) populations; however, insecticides are required when populations reach economically damaging levels. Currently, insecticides used to manage A. glycines are broad-spectrum (pyrethroids and organophosphates), and probably reduce beneficial insect abundance in soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr. Our goal was to determine whether insecticides considered reduced-risk by the Environmental Protection Agency could protect soybean yield from A. glycines herbivory while having a limited impact on the aphid's natural enemies. We compared three insecticides (imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, and pymetrozine,) to a broad-spectrum insecticide (lamda-cyhalothrin) and an untreated control using two application methods. We applied neonicotinoid insecticides to seeds (imidacloprid and thiamethoxam) as well as foliage (imidacloprid); pymetrozine and lamda-cyhalothrin were applied only to foliage. Foliage-applied insecticides had lower A. glycines populations and higher yields than the seed-applied insecticides. Among foliage-applied insecticides, pymetrozine and imidacloprid had an intermediate level of A. glycines population and yield protection compared with lamda-cyhalothrin and the untreated control. We monitored natural enemies with yellow sticky cards, sweep-nets, and direct observation. Before foliar insecticides were applied (i.e., before aphid populations developed) seed treatments had no observable effect on the abundance of natural enemies. After foliar insecticides were applied, differences in natural enemy abundance were observed when sampled with sweep-nets and direct observation but not with yellow sticky cards. Based on the first two sampling methods, pymetrozine and the foliage-applied imidacloprid had intermediate abundances of natural enemies compared with the untreated control and lamda-cyhalothrin.

Natural Products for the Prevention and Alleviation of Risk Factors for Diabetes: Chromium and Cinnamon

Science.gov (United States)

Natural products are widespread for the alleviation and prevention of the risk factors of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes. We have shown that glucose, insulin, cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1c levels are all improved in people with type 2 diabetes following chromium supplementation in a double-b...

Analytical procedures for identifying anthocyanins in natural extracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marco, Paulo Henrique; Poppi, Ronei Jesus; Scarminio, Ieda Spacino

2008-01-01

Anthocyanins are among the most important plant pigments. Due to their potential benefits for human health, there is considerable interest in these natural pigments. Nonetheless, there is great difficulty in finding a technique that could provide the identification of structurally similar compounds and estimate the number and concentration of the species present. A lot of techniques have been tried to find the best methodology to extract information from these systems. In this paper, a review of the most important procedures is given, from the extraction to the identification of anthocyanins in natural extracts. (author)

Natural ventilation reduces high TB transmission risk in traditional homes in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Lygizos, Melissa; Shenoi, Sheela V; Brooks, Ralph P; Bhushan, Ambika; Brust, James C M; Zelterman, Daniel; Deng, Yanhong; Northrup, Veronika; Moll, Anthony P; Friedland, Gerald H

2013-07-01

Transmission of drug susceptible and drug resistant TB occurs in health care facilities, and community and households settings, particularly in highly prevalent TB and HIV areas. There is a paucity of data regarding factors that may affect TB transmission risk in household settings. We evaluated air exchange and the impact of natural ventilation on estimated TB transmission risk in traditional Zulu homes in rural South Africa. We utilized a carbon dioxide decay technique to measure ventilation in air changes per hour (ACH). We evaluated predominant home types to determine factors affecting ACH and used the Wells-Riley equation to estimate TB transmission risk. Two hundred eighteen ventilation measurements were taken in 24 traditional homes. All had low ventilation at baseline when windows were closed (mean ACH = 3, SD = 3.0), with estimated TB transmission risk of 55.4% over a ten hour period of exposure to an infectious TB patient. There was significant improvement with opening windows and door, reaching a mean ACH of 20 (SD = 13.1, p ventilation conditions (windows/doors open) and window to volume ratio. Expanding ventilation increased the odds of achieving ≥12 ACH by 60-fold. There is high estimated risk of TB transmission in traditional homes of infectious TB patients in rural South Africa. Improving natural ventilation may decrease household TB transmission risk and, combined with other strategies, may enhance TB control efforts.

An efficient attack identification and risk prediction algorithm for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The social media is highly utilized cloud for storing huge amount of data. ... However, the adversarial scenario did not design properly to maintain the privacy of the ... Information Retrieval, Security Evaluation, Efficient Attack Identification and ...

An 11-digit identification system for individual Nile crocodiles using natural markings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hindrik Bouwman

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Research and conservation of wild crocodiles and husbandry of captive crocodiles requires the reliable identification of individuals. We present a method using the individual colour markings on the first 10 single-crest scutes on the tails of Nile crocodiles (Crocodylus niloticus. The scutes are scored by number for colour, with a prefix for left or right providing a binary 11-digit identification number (identification numbers [IDs]; e.g. 12232232242 and 22333233232 per crocodile. A survey of 359 captive Nile crocodiles showed no duplication. However, 42% had asymmetrical scute markings requiring a binary approach. There does not seem to be a change in patterns with age, except that the number of missing scutes increased. A small trial showed that this method can be applied in the field, although more work is needed to determine observer bias and establish parameters for observability in the field. It is unlikely that both left and right IDs would be obtainable for each individual, but other distinctive markings such as scute shape and damage can be used to register the two IDs to one individual. Having two independent IDs for each crocodile provides the possibility of two independent population estimates for equal effort without having to link left and right IDs to individuals. Our proposed method would be useful in conservation, individual tracking and husbandry. Conservation implications: A non-invasive marking and recapture method for Nile crocodile is presented whereby the first 10 single-crest scutes are scored for colour, allowing conservation practitioners to count and monitor crocodile populations and individuals. This method provides two equal-effort estimations of population size, as left and right hand sides are scored independently. Keywords: Crocodylus niloticus; identification; mark - recapture; mark - resight

Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

2015-07-01

Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

2017-01-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

Review of research on identification of factors influencing social response to technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.

1977-01-01

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned. The social response to plans for further technological development has often taken the form of demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks, and consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for interdisciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to allow the balancing of complex technical data with measures of the corresponding social values. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision-making are summarized as background for the introduction of formal decision methodologies. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. A pilot application to nuclear power indicated that, for the subjects tested, attitudes pro and con were primarily determined by strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Symbolic aspects of the nuclear controversy are reviewed, including psychological associations with nuclear weapons. It is suggested that nuclear energy is providing a forum to evaluate a wide range of social issues, perhaps playing a symbolic role in a dialogue about the shape and direction of a technologically-determined future. (author)

A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

El-Arkam Mechhoud

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

Managing soil natural capital

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cong, Ronggang; Termansen, Mette; Brady, Mark

2017-01-01

Farmers are exposed to substantial weather and market related risks. Rational farmers seek to avoid large losses. Future climate change and energy price fluctuations therefore make adaptating to increased risks particularly important for them. Managing soil natural capital—the capacity of the soil...... to generate ecosystem services of benefit to farmers—has been proven to generate the double dividend: increasing farm profit and reducing associated risk. In this paper we explore whether managing soil natural capital has a third dividend: reducing the downside risk (increasing the positive skewness of profit......). This we refer to as the prudence effect which can be viewed as an adaptation strategy for dealing with future uncertainties through more prudent management of soil natural capital. We do this by developing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil natural capital—as indicated...

Critiques of the risk concept

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nexøe, Jørgen; Halvorsen, Peder Andreas; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

2007-01-01

The increasing use of the risk concept in healthcare has caused concern among medical doctors, especially general practitioners (GPs). Critics have claimed that risk identification and intervention create unfounded anxiety, that the concept of risk is not useful at the individual patient level, t...... useful for GPs, and in fact a key issue. It is concluded that risk critique should be based on sound theory and empirical data. Critics may do well in making clear distinctions between facts and value judgements......The increasing use of the risk concept in healthcare has caused concern among medical doctors, especially general practitioners (GPs). Critics have claimed that risk identification and intervention create unfounded anxiety, that the concept of risk is not useful at the individual patient level...... interests promote risk interventions, that patients may misunderstand risk information, and that risk information can cause unnecessary anxiety. The authors have found no empirical data on the amount of time primary healthcare providers spend on risk interventions, and have not identified any valid...

Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedrich, Steinhaeusler; Lyudmila, Zaitseva; Stan, Rydell

2008-01-01

The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb).This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment

Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, Steinhäusler; Stan, Rydell; Lyudmila, Zaitseva

2008-08-01

The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb). This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment.

The nature and timing of social deficits in child and adolescent offspring of parents with schizophrenia: preliminary evidence for precursors of negative symptoms?

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Leslie E; Smith, Ashley A; Haas, Gretchen L

2014-10-01

Children with social dysfunction and a first-degree relative with schizophrenia are at elevated risk for schizophrenia; however, the nature of this dysfunction is unclear. It was hypothesized that familial high-risk (HR) children and adolescents (n=17) would have social skill deficits relative to healthy controls (HC; n=35). HR participants had a bimodal distribution of social skill scores (47% excellent; 53% poor). HR participants had worse social skills, assertion and empathy scores, suggesting possible developmental precursors to the social amotivation domain of negative symptoms. Characterizing HR children's social deficits could assist identification of those at risk for schizophrenia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling misidentification errors in capture-recapture studies using photographic identification of evolving marks

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshizaki, J.; Pollock, K.H.; Brownie, C.; Webster, R.A.

2009-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) are used to identify individual animals in a capture-recapture study. Photographic identification (photoID) typically uses photographic images of animals' naturally existing features as tags (photographic tags) and is subject to two main causes of identification errors: those related to quality of photographs (non-evolving natural tags) and those related to changes in natural marks (evolving natural tags). The conventional methods for analysis of capture-recapture data do not account for identification errors, and to do so requires a detailed understanding of the misidentification mechanism. Focusing on the situation where errors are due to evolving natural tags, we propose a misidentification mechanism and outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies. We introduce methods for estimating population size based on this model. Using a simulation study, we show that conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored, and that, in comparison, our new estimators have better properties except in cases with low capture probabilities (<0.2) or low misidentification rates (<2.5%). ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Artificial intelligence on the identification of risk groups for osteoporosis, a general review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz, Agnaldo S; Lins, Hertz C; Medeiros, Ricardo V A; Filho, José M F; da Silva, Sandro G

2018-01-29

The goal of this paper is to present a critical review on the main systems that use artificial intelligence to identify groups at risk for osteoporosis or fractures. The systems considered for this study were those that fulfilled the following requirements: range of coverage in diagnosis, low cost and capability to identify more significant somatic factors. A bibliographic research was done in the databases, PubMed, IEEExplorer Latin American and Caribbean Center on Health Sciences Information (LILACS), Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct searching the terms "Neural Network", "Osteoporosis Machine Learning" and "Osteoporosis Neural Network". Studies with titles not directly related to the research topic and older data that reported repeated strategies were excluded. The search was carried out with the descriptors in German, Spanish, French, Italian, Mandarin, Portuguese and English; but only studies written in English were found to meet the established criteria. Articles covering the period 2000-2017 were selected; however, articles prior to this period with great relevance were included in this study. Based on the collected research, it was identified that there are several methods in the use of artificial intelligence to help the screening of risk groups of osteoporosis or fractures. However, such systems were limited to a specific ethnic group, gender or age. For future research, new challenges are presented. It is necessary to develop research with the unification of different databases and grouping of the various attributes and clinical factors, in order to reach a greater comprehensiveness in the identification of risk groups of osteoporosis. For this purpose, the use of any predictive tool should be performed in different populations with greater participation of male patients and inclusion of a larger age range for the

The natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagrasta, F.; Kaminski, V.; Prevatt, R.

1999-01-01

This chapter presents a brief history of the natural gas market highlighting the changes in the gas market and examining risk management in practice detailing the types of price risks, and the use of hedging using forwards and swaps. Options to manage risk are identified, and the role of risk management in financing, the role of the intermediary, and the market outlook are discussed. Panels describing the market structure, storage and natural gas risk management, the art of risk management, the winter 1995-96 basis blowout, spark spreads, the UK gas market and Europe, and weather derivatives are presented

Chromatographic and Spectroscopic Identification and Recognition of Natural Dyes, Uncommon Dyestuff Components, and Mordants: Case Study of a 16th Century Carpet with Chintamani Motifs

OpenAIRE

Olga Otłowska; Marek Ślebioda; Agata Kot-Wasik; Jakub Karczewski; Magdalena Śliwka-Kaszyńska

2018-01-01

A multi-tool analytical practice was used for the characterisation of a 16th century carpet manufactured in Cairo. A mild extraction method with hydrofluoric acid has been evaluated in order to isolate intact flavonoids and their glycosides, anthraquinones, tannins, and indigoids from fibre samples. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled to spectroscopic and mass spectrometric detectors was used for the identification of possible marker compounds with special attention paid to natural...

Identification of Uranium Minerals in Natural U-Bearing Rocks Using Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beiswenger, Toya N. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Gallagher, Neal B. [Eigenvector Research, Inc., Manson, WA, USA; Myers, Tanya L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Szecsody, James E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tonkyn, Russell G. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Su, Yin-Fong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Sweet, Lucas E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Lewallen, Tricia A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Johnson, Timothy J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA

2017-10-24

The identification of minerals, including uranium-bearing minerals, is traditionally a labor-intensive-process using x-ray diffraction (XRD), fluorescence, or other solid-phase and wet chemical techniques. While handheld XRD and fluorescence instruments can aid in field identification, handheld infrared reflectance spectrometers can also be used in industrial or field environments, with rapid, non-destructive identification possible via spectral analysis of the solid’s reflectance spectrum. We have recently developed standard laboratory measurement methods for the infrared (IR) reflectance of solids and have investigated using these techniques for the identification of uranium-bearing minerals, using XRD methods for ground-truth. Due to the rich colors of such species, including distinctive spectroscopic signatures in the infrared, identification is facile and specific, both for samples that are pure or are partially composed of uranium (e.g. boltwoodite, schoepite, tyuyamunite, carnotite, etc.) or non-uranium minerals. The method can be used to detect not only pure and partial minerals, but is quite sensitive to chemical change such as hydration (e.g. schoepite). We have further applied statistical methods, in particular classical least squares (CLS) and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) for discrimination of such uranium minerals and two uranium pure chemicals (U3O8 and UO2) against common background materials (e.g. silica sand, asphalt, calcite, K-feldspar) with good success. Each mineral contains unique infrared spectral features; some of the IR features are similar or common to entire classes of minerals, typically arising from similar chemical moieties or functional groups in the minerals: phosphates, sulfates, carbonates, etc. These characteristic 2 infrared bands generate the unique (or class-specific) bands that distinguish the mineral from the interferents or backgrounds. We have observed several cases where the chemical moieties that provide the

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

2009-01-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222 Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

Science.gov (United States)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

2014-01-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case–control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case–control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors. PMID:19454802

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner [Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria); Simon, Steven L [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States); Wojcik, Andrzej [Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology, Warsaw (Poland); Cardis, Elisabeth [Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM-Hospital del Mar) and CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica - CIBERESP, Barcelona (Spain); Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot [Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, Radiological and Human Health Division, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Hayata, Isamu [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)], E-mail: jhendry2002uk@yahoo.com

2009-06-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of {sup 222}Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in diverse European natural hazard contexts

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, G.; Tweed, F.

2012-04-01

Risks are always managed within a broader context of relationships between governments, citizens, civil society and private business; these relationships shift and evolve over time with changing political currents and economic conditions. In Europe over the past 20 years or so, there has been a move away from government towards a broader practice of 'governance', a shift that is as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as it is to other societal concerns such as housing, economic regeneration or transport. Key characteristics of this change include the emergence of multi-level governance processes and the 'hollowing out' of the nation state; moves away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors specific to each policy area; the creation of new forms of authority and control; and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the full diversity of European national contexts and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is open to analysis and debate. In this paper, we propose a framework for profiling risk governance approaches in relation to key characteristics identified in both the general governance literature and in more specific work on risk governance. This framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national/regional context and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of nine governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as illustrating how it can be used in a process of discussion and debate about risk governance issues. We provide examples of the ways in which the profiling approach can enable comparison between risk governance contexts and approaches, and how it can be used in a variety of potential settings.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delphi technique applied to risk identification and assessment on pipe supports fabrication and erection contracts; Aplicacao da tecnica Delphi para identificacao e avaliacao de riscos na contratacao e montagem de suportes de tubulacao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cruz, Rodrigo Luiz Neves; Balbi, Diego Junca de Gonzaga [Promon Engenharia, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2012-07-01

Through the years, Risk Management became an accepted subject in Brazilian Organizations, with its own language, techniques and tools; and its processes are being more and more often introduced in its management models. However, risk identification, assessment and management is a difficult task, and can be even more difficult for construction industry-related projects, for these ventures tend to be more dynamic and complex. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to present the application of Delphi technique for risk identification in the erection of piping support. To achieve the desired objective, a literature review of theory references was conducted to understand concepts involved. To apply the technique itself, experts in plant erection were involving. (author)

Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

NATURAL AND ANTHROPIC RISK STUDIES IN FOUR DECADES IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL AMERICA (1974 - 2015)

OpenAIRE

Quesada-Román, Adolfo

2017-01-01

The aim of this work is to identify the influence of the international and national epistemological trends and the techniques in the risk management of disasters (RMD) in Costa Rica. To do this, the journal papers of the Geographical Journal of Central America between 1974 and 2015 were analyzed -114 included topics related to natural and anthropogenic risks. They were classified into eight thematic classes: seismic hazards, volcanic hazards, slope processes hazards, hydrometeorological hazar...

German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, W.

1992-01-01

The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs

Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

Science.gov (United States)

Hancilar, U.

2012-01-01

Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Hancilar

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious, infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities. Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

Risk forewarning of regional development sustainability based on a natural resources and environmental carrying index in China

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jie; Wang, Yafei; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Li, Lijuan; Xu, Yong; Zhang, Wenzhong; Wang, Chuansheng; Xu, Weihua; Li, Jiuyi; Yu, Jianhui; Zhou, Kan

2017-02-01

It is a matter of public consensus that China's high growth rate has been achieved at the expense of natural resources and the environment, leading to serious risks to sustainability. This research, which proposes a theoretical model to forewarn of risks to regional developmental sustainability in China, constitutes the first empirical evaluation of this to be undertaken there. The results show that: (a) the areas at risk cover almost 43% of the land and 44% of the population of mainland China. In those areas, 83.56% of people at risk are threatened by the low carrying capacity of the environment and limited water resources. (b) With 70% of the total population living in "at risk" areas, urbanization zones remain as the primary category suffering from overload across China. Extensive industrialization has resulted in environmental pollution, which contributes the most to the forewarning status, while the secondary cause is found to be the special coupling of the scarcity of natural water resources and their inefficient use. In addition, most urban conglomerations suffer from pollution by industrial production and household consumption, which tends to extend to their surrounding agricultural areas. Extensive mineral exploitation in ecologically fragile areas has made them increasingly more vulnerable to disturbances from their neighboring resource-driven urban areas. The paper uses these findings to suggest how to intensify the special regulatory administration of resources and the environment, and to transform approaches to industrialization, in order to address sustainable development issues in developing countries.

[Identification of risk factors for congenital malformations].

Science.gov (United States)

Canals C, Andrea; Cavada C, Gabriel; Nazer H, Julio

2014-11-01

The relative importance of congenital malformations as a cause of death in the first year of life is increasing along with the control of preventable causes of perinatal mortality. To identify risk factors for congenital malformations. Retrospective case-control study of births registered in the database of The Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), in the period 2001-2010. Birth weight and gestational age were significantly lower in cases than controls, behaving as risk factors and associated with a greater severity of congenital malformations. The risk and severity of congenital malformations increased along with mother's age. Fetal growth retardation, a history of congenital malformations in the family, physical factors and acute illnesses of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy were also significant risk factors for congenital malformations and their severity. The educational level of the mother was a protective factor for congenital malformations and their severity. Variables previously identified as risk factors for congenital malformations, were significantly related with the occurrence of congenital malformations and their severity.

A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

2005-01-01

... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

The identification and nature of bound exciton I-line PL systems in ZnO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnston, K. [PH Dept, CERN, 1211-Geneva (Switzerland); Cullen, J.; Henry, M. O.; McGlynn, Enda [School of Physics Sciences, Dublin City University, Dublin 9 (Ireland); Khawaga, Rehab I. [Department of Chemistry, College of Art and Science, American University of Sharjah (AUS) (United Arab Emirates)

2013-12-04

The chemical identification of donor bound excitons in ZnO has been studied using radioactive ions. Implantations of {sup 117}Ag - which decays to radioactive Cd and In - have enabled the identification of the I{sub 2} optical feature as being the ionized donor counterpart of I{sub 9}, one of the most prominent optical features in the photoluminescence spectrum of ZnO. Both of these lines are consistent with In occupying a Zn site.

United States natural gas markets, contracts and risks: What lessons for the European Union and Asia-Pacific natural gas markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talus, Kim

2014-01-01

The article examines the natural gas markets of the United States, the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region and their regulation and contractual structures. The article's main focus is on the United States natural gas markets. The European Union and Asia-Pacific markets are compared to this more developed market. By comparing the physical and ideological characteristics of, and differences between, the three main international gas markets, the article exposes the limits of regulatory and contractual transplants in this area of law and policy. Each of these markets is unique, which limits the opportunities for modelling certain market institutions on the basis of the more developed markets in the United States. This applies for both the EU and the Asia-Pacific region. - Highlights: • Differences in the physical markets impact regulation. • Regulatory transplants have risks. • The approach in energy policy should be based on “Law-in-Context” approach

Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

2016-10-01

Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Identification of glacial flood hazards in karakorum range using remote sensing technique and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashraf, A.; Roohi, R.; Naz, R.

2011-01-01

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are great hazard for the downstream communities in context of changing climatic conditions in the glaciated region of Pakistan. The remote sensing data of Landsat ETM+ was utilized for the identification of glacial lakes susceptible to posing GLOF hazard in Karakoram Range. Overall, 887 glacial lakes are identified in different river-basins of Karakoram Range, out of which 16 lakes are characterized as potentially dangerous in terms of GLOF. The analysis of community's response to GLOF events of 2008 in the central Karakoram Range indicated gaps in coordination and capacity of the local communities to cope with such natural hazards. A regular monitoring of hot spots and potential GLOF lakes along with capacity- of local communities and institutions in coping future disaster situation is necessary, especially in the context of changing climatic conditions in Himalayan region. (author)