WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk identification nature

  1. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  2. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  3. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  4. Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kasprowicz T.

    2017-01-01

    Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

  5. Technical Risk Identification at Program Inception

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-20

    risks include the probabilistic sum of all of the constituent elements. Aggregation is subjective, and typically not statistical or mathematical ...insure and how much to charge. The system creates groupings of vehicles and driver actuarial classes based on the following classifications...Coverage type. • Classifications, such as age, are further broken into actuarial classes, e.g., 21 to 24 year olds. Supply Chain Risk Identification There

  6. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Place attachment and natural environmental risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonaiuto, Marino; Alves, Susana; De Dominicis, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about place attachment affecting natural environmental risk perception and coping. A systematic search of social science databases revealed 31 works (1996–2016) directly addressing place attachment in relation to different types of natural hazard risks (e.g., seismic, volcanic, etc.......). Across different contexts, the research shows: (a) positive and/or negative relationships between place attachment and natural environmental risk perception; (b) positive and/or negative relationships between place attachment and risk coping; and (c) mediating and moderating relationships. In particular......, results show that: (a) highly attached individuals perceive natural environmental risks but underestimate their potential effects; (b) highly attached individuals are unwilling to relocate when facing natural environmental risks and more likely to return to risky areas after a natural environmental...

  8. Naturalness, value systems and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: what is natural? And what is Nature? Are perceptions of Nature and naturalness related to perceptions of risk? This paper focuses on these aspects based on results from a Swedish representative sample (N=731), where subjects indicated e.g. the degree of naturalness of various phenomena, their views of nature, and personal life values, as well as perceptions of risk in specified contexts. The results showed a tendency to perceive as natural the phenomenon which is positively valued, i.e. what is natural is also good or desirable. Further, there were weak correlations between perceived naturalness and indicators of technological optimism, possibly indicating that persons with a more generous view of what is natural also more easily might accept change and outcomes due to human intelligence and activity. The construct of 'tampering with nature' has previously been shown to be one good predictor of perceived risk. The respondents also rated their agreement with items aimed to reflect the four 'views of nature' as suggested by Cultural Theory, i.e. nature as robust, capricious, tolerant and fragile. Nature was foremost perceived as fragile, but the main result clearly revealed that peoples' views of nature were complex and most often involved several of the suggested categories. The discussion focuses on the possible implications on environmental concern and risk perception given that Nature would develop into an undesirable type of locality. (author)

  9. A game theoretic framework for analyzing re-identification risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyu Wan

    Full Text Available Given the potential wealth of insights in personal data the big databases can provide, many organizations aim to share data while protecting privacy by sharing de-identified data, but are concerned because various demonstrations show such data can be re-identified. Yet these investigations focus on how attacks can be perpetrated, not the likelihood they will be realized. This paper introduces a game theoretic framework that enables a publisher to balance re-identification risk with the value of sharing data, leveraging a natural assumption that a recipient only attempts re-identification if its potential gains outweigh the costs. We apply the framework to a real case study, where the value of the data to the publisher is the actual grant funding dollar amounts from a national sponsor and the re-identification gain of the recipient is the fine paid to a regulator for violation of federal privacy rules. There are three notable findings: 1 it is possible to achieve zero risk, in that the recipient never gains from re-identification, while sharing almost as much data as the optimal solution that allows for a small amount of risk; 2 the zero-risk solution enables sharing much more data than a commonly invoked de-identification policy of the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA; and 3 a sensitivity analysis demonstrates these findings are robust to order-of-magnitude changes in player losses and gains. In combination, these findings provide support that such a framework can enable pragmatic policy decisions about de-identified data sharing.

  10. RISK IDENTIFICATION TOOLS – POLISH MSMES COMPANIES PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to present risk identification tools in Polish micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs. Risk identification is a key element of the risk management process in companies. Correctly fitting risk identification tools affect the accuracy of management decisions. The result of research is to identify the leading risk identification tools used by MSMEs. The study was conducted in 2010-2012 using a mixed survey-monographic method and questionnaires. The qualitative data were obtained during the study.

  11. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeyoung Lee

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens

  12. Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2014-09-01

    Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than

  13. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  14. Deep Learning for Plant Identification in Natural Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Guan; Zhang, Haiyan

    2017-01-01

    Plant image identification has become an interdisciplinary focus in both botanical taxonomy and computer vision. The first plant image dataset collected by mobile phone in natural scene is presented, which contains 10,000 images of 100 ornamental plant species in Beijing Forestry University campus. A 26-layer deep learning model consisting of 8 residual building blocks is designed for large-scale plant classification in natural environment. The proposed model achieves a recognition rate of 91.78% on the BJFU100 dataset, demonstrating that deep learning is a promising technology for smart forestry.

  15. Deep Learning for Plant Identification in Natural Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Plant image identification has become an interdisciplinary focus in both botanical taxonomy and computer vision. The first plant image dataset collected by mobile phone in natural scene is presented, which contains 10,000 images of 100 ornamental plant species in Beijing Forestry University campus. A 26-layer deep learning model consisting of 8 residual building blocks is designed for large-scale plant classification in natural environment. The proposed model achieves a recognition rate of 91.78% on the BJFU100 dataset, demonstrating that deep learning is a promising technology for smart forestry.

  16. PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serghei Margulescu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

  17. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  18. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  19. EEMD-MUSIC-Based Analysis for Natural Frequencies Identification of Structures Using Artificial and Natural Excitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Camarena-Martinez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new EEMD-MUSIC- (ensemble empirical mode decomposition-multiple signal classification- based methodology to identify modal frequencies in structures ranging from free and ambient vibration signals produced by artificial and natural excitations and also considering several factors as nonstationary effects, close modal frequencies, and noisy environments, which are common situations where several techniques reported in literature fail. The EEMD and MUSIC methods are used to decompose the vibration signal into a set of IMFs (intrinsic mode functions and to identify the natural frequencies of a structure, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated and tested with synthetic signals and under real operating conditions. The experiments are focused on extracting the natural frequencies of a truss-type scaled structure and of a bridge used for both highway traffic and pedestrians. Results show the proposed methodology as a suitable solution for natural frequencies identification of structures from free and ambient vibration signals.

  20. EEMD-MUSIC-Based Analysis for Natural Frequencies Identification of Structures Using Artificial and Natural Excitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amezquita-Sanchez, Juan P.; Romero-Troncoso, Rene J.; Osornio-Rios, Roque A.; Garcia-Perez, Arturo

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new EEMD-MUSIC- (ensemble empirical mode decomposition-multiple signal classification-) based methodology to identify modal frequencies in structures ranging from free and ambient vibration signals produced by artificial and natural excitations and also considering several factors as nonstationary effects, close modal frequencies, and noisy environments, which are common situations where several techniques reported in literature fail. The EEMD and MUSIC methods are used to decompose the vibration signal into a set of IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and to identify the natural frequencies of a structure, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated and tested with synthetic signals and under real operating conditions. The experiments are focused on extracting the natural frequencies of a truss-type scaled structure and of a bridge used for both highway traffic and pedestrians. Results show the proposed methodology as a suitable solution for natural frequencies identification of structures from free and ambient vibration signals. PMID:24683346

  1. Optimizing annotation resources for natural language de-identification via a game theoretic framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Muqun; Carrell, David; Aberdeen, John; Hirschman, Lynette; Kirby, Jacqueline; Li, Bo; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Malin, Bradley A

    2016-06-01

    Electronic medical records (EMRs) are increasingly repurposed for activities beyond clinical care, such as to support translational research and public policy analysis. To mitigate privacy risks, healthcare organizations (HCOs) aim to remove potentially identifying patient information. A substantial quantity of EMR data is in natural language form and there are concerns that automated tools for detecting identifiers are imperfect and leak information that can be exploited by ill-intentioned data recipients. Thus, HCOs have been encouraged to invest as much effort as possible to find and detect potential identifiers, but such a strategy assumes the recipients are sufficiently incentivized and capable of exploiting leaked identifiers. In practice, such an assumption may not hold true and HCOs may overinvest in de-identification technology. The goal of this study is to design a natural language de-identification framework, rooted in game theory, which enables an HCO to optimize their investments given the expected capabilities of an adversarial recipient. We introduce a Stackelberg game to balance risk and utility in natural language de-identification. This game represents a cost-benefit model that enables an HCO with a fixed budget to minimize their investment in the de-identification process. We evaluate this model by assessing the overall payoff to the HCO and the adversary using 2100 clinical notes from Vanderbilt University Medical Center. We simulate several policy alternatives using a range of parameters, including the cost of training a de-identification model and the loss in data utility due to the removal of terms that are not identifiers. In addition, we compare policy options where, when an attacker is fined for misuse, a monetary penalty is paid to the publishing HCO as opposed to a third party (e.g., a federal regulator). Our results show that when an HCO is forced to exhaust a limited budget (set to $2000 in the study), the precision and recall of the

  2. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  3. Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim

    2017-08-01

    Unexpected increase in cost and delays in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, etc. in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun and schedule overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost and schedule has received extensive attention of researchers, but because of continuous changes and development in the field, the study considered of added value to the construction industry in Egypt, in addition to risk strategy and plan analysis. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost and scheduling should be flexible enough to accommodate changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. As such, the objectives of the presented research in this paper are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost and time contingency. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt. The collected data, output charts and analyses spreadsheets will be used for the development of computerized model built by the authors with identification abbreviation RIAM.

  4. The role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, J.S.

    1982-01-01

    The author places some prior natural hazards research into the context of risk from new technologies to show that some beneficial technologies increase the risk from natural hazards. He examines the role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards in a historical perspective, using examples from research on mountain hazards

  5. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  6. Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

  7. The re-identification risk of Canadians from longitudinal demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The public is less willing to allow their personal health information to be disclosed for research purposes if they do not trust researchers and how researchers manage their data. However, the public is more comfortable with their data being used for research if the risk of re-identification is low. There are few studies on the risk of re-identification of Canadians from their basic demographics, and no studies on their risk from their longitudinal data. Our objective was to estimate the risk of re-identification from the basic cross-sectional and longitudinal demographics of Canadians. Methods Uniqueness is a common measure of re-identification risk. Demographic data on a 25% random sample of the population of Montreal were analyzed to estimate population uniqueness on postal code, date of birth, and gender as well as their generalizations, for periods ranging from 1 year to 11 years. Results Almost 98% of the population was unique on full postal code, date of birth and gender: these three variables are effectively a unique identifier for Montrealers. Uniqueness increased for longitudinal data. Considerable generalization was required to reach acceptably low uniqueness levels, especially for longitudinal data. Detailed guidelines and disclosure policies on how to ensure that the re-identification risk is low are provided. Conclusions A large percentage of Montreal residents are unique on basic demographics. For non-longitudinal data sets, the three character postal code, gender, and month/year of birth represent sufficiently low re-identification risk. Data custodians need to generalize their demographic information further for longitudinal data sets. PMID:21696636

  8. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  9. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  10. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  11. Identification and quantification of the halogenated natural product BC-3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melcher, J.; Olbrich, D.; Vetter, W. [Hohenheim Univ., Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. fuer Lebensmittelchemie; Marsh, G. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Chemistry; Gaus, C.; Mueller, J.F. [National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, Coopers Plains (Australia)

    2004-09-15

    Halogenated natural products (HNPs) of marine origin are increasingly recognized as critical residues in foodstuff (e. g. fish) and environmental samples (e. g. marine mammals and birds). Some of these HNPs (Q1, MHC-1, BC-2, and HDBPs including BC-10) were detected in diverse fish and marine mammal samples at concentrations sometimes exceeding those of PCBs, DDT, and other anthropogenic pollutants. Recent studies with marine mammal samples from Australia led to the detection of six abundant HNPs (Q1, BC-1, BC-2, BC-3, BC-10, and BC-11). In the meantime, Q1 was identified as heptachloro-1{sup '}-methyl-1,2{sup '}-bipyrrole, BC-2 as 4,6-dibromo-2-(2{sup '},4{sup '}-dibromo)phenoxyanisole, BC- 10 as 1,1{sup '}-dimethyl-3,3{sup '},4,4{sup '}-tetrabromo-5,5{sup '}-dichloro-2,2{sup '}-bipyrrole, and BC-11 as 3,5-dibromo- 2-(3{sup '},5{sup '}-dibromo,2{sup '}-methoxy)phenoxyanisole. However the identity of BC-1 and BC-3 remained unclear. The goal of the present study was the identification of BC-3. The tetrabromo compound BC-3 has previously been detected in marine mammals from four continents. Furthermore, we attempted establishing quantitative concentrations in diverse marine biota samples.

  12. [Identification of risk factors for congenital malformations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canals C, Andrea; Cavada C, Gabriel; Nazer H, Julio

    2014-11-01

    The relative importance of congenital malformations as a cause of death in the first year of life is increasing along with the control of preventable causes of perinatal mortality. To identify risk factors for congenital malformations. Retrospective case-control study of births registered in the database of The Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), in the period 2001-2010. Birth weight and gestational age were significantly lower in cases than controls, behaving as risk factors and associated with a greater severity of congenital malformations. The risk and severity of congenital malformations increased along with mother's age. Fetal growth retardation, a history of congenital malformations in the family, physical factors and acute illnesses of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy were also significant risk factors for congenital malformations and their severity. The educational level of the mother was a protective factor for congenital malformations and their severity. Variables previously identified as risk factors for congenital malformations, were significantly related with the occurrence of congenital malformations and their severity.

  13. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  14. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  15. Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

    2018-03-01

    The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

  16. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

  17. Natural radiation, radioactive waste and chemical risk determinants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, T.; Mustonen, R.; Edhwall, H.; Hansen, H.; Soerensen, A.; Stranden, E.

    1990-01-01

    Doses from natural radiation to the population in the Nordic countries are summarized, and man-made modifications of the natural radiation environment are discussed. An account is given for the radiological concequences of energy concervation by reduced ventilation. Risks from possible future releases of radioactivity from final depositories of spent nuclear fuel are compared to the risks from present natural radioactivity in the environment. The possibilities for comparison between chemical and radiological risks are discussed. 104 refs., 36 figs., 47 tabs

  18. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  19. Identification Of Natural Dyes On Archaeological Textile Objects Using Laser Induced Fluorescent Technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Kareem, O.; Eltokhy, A.; Harith, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the use of Laser Fluorescent as a non-destructive technique for identification of natural dyes on archaeological textile objects. In this study wool textile samples were dyed with 10 natural dyes such as cochineal, cutch, henna, indigo, Lac, madder, safflower, saffron, sumac and turmeric. These dyes common present on archaeological textile objects to be used as standard dyed textile samples. These selected natural dyes will be used as known references that can be used a guide to identify unknown archaeological dyes. The dyed textile samples were investigated with laser radiation in different wavelengths to detect the best wavelengths for identification each dye. This study confirms that Laser Florescent is very useful and a rapid technique can be used as a non-destructive technique for identification of natural dyes on archaeological textile objects. The results obtained with this study can be a guide for all conservators in identification of natural organic dyes on archaeological textile objects.

  20. Identification Of Natural Dyes On Archaeological Textile Objects Using Laser Induced Fluorescent Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Kareem, O.; Eltokhy, A.; Harith, M. A.

    2011-09-01

    This study aims to evaluate the use of Laser Fluorescent as a non-destructive technique for identification of natural dyes on archaeological textile objects. In this study wool textile samples were dyed with 10 natural dyes such as cochineal, cutch, henna, indigo, Lac, madder, safflower, saffron, sumac and turmeric. These dyes common present on archaeological textile objects to be used as standard dyed textile samples. These selected natural dyes will be used as known references that can be used a guide to identify unknown archaeological dyes. The dyed textile samples were investigated with laser radiation in different wavelengths to detect the best wavelengths for identification each dye. This study confirms that Laser Florescent is very useful and a rapid technique can be used as a non-destructive technique for identification of natural dyes on archaeological textile objects. The results obtained with this study can be a guide for all conservators in identification of natural organic dyes on archaeological textile objects.

  1. Identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics based on statistical and textural features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Fei; Li, Jiao-ting; Long, Min

    2015-03-01

    To discriminate the acquisition pipelines of digital images, a novel scheme for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics is proposed based on statistical and textural features. First, the differences between them are investigated from the view of statistics and texture, and 31 dimensions of feature are acquired for identification. Then, LIBSVM is used for the classification. Finally, the experimental results are presented. The results show that it can achieve an identification accuracy of 97.89% for computer-generated graphics, and an identification accuracy of 97.75% for natural images. The analyses also demonstrate the proposed method has excellent performance, compared with some existing methods based only on statistical features or other features. The method has a great potential to be implemented for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  2. Identification as Incentive to Care: Pre-Service Teachers' Orientation towards Inclusion in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedžune, Inga

    2015-01-01

    This study proposes identification with nature as a pedagogical technique in teacher education for sustainability to facilitate commitment to care about nonhuman nature, such care being an important underpinning of an inclusive and hence sustainable human-nature relationship. 29 pre-service teachers participated in a series of learning activities…

  3. Identification from the Natural Response of Vasco Da Gama Bridge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cunha, A.; Caetano, E.; Brincker, Rune

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the reanalysis of the ambient vibration data of Vasco da Gama cable-stayed bridge with the purpose of testing the efficiency and accuracy of two recent and promising identification methods in a large application: the Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and the Stochastic...... Subspace Identification (SSI) methods. The modal estimates obtained using these alternative approaches are compared, taking also into account the estimates previously obtained with the conventional Peak Picking technique from the free vibration test of the bridge, performed at the end of construction....

  4. Asset Identification for Security Risk Assessment in Web Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Hisham M. Haddad; Brunil D. Romero

    2009-01-01

    As software applications become more complex they require more security, allowing them to reach an appropriate level of quality to manage information, and therefore achieving business objectives. Web applications represent one segment of software industry where security risk assessment is essential. Web engineering must address new challenges to provide new techniques and tools that guarantee high quality application development. This work focuses asset identification, the initial step in sec...

  5. Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foppe, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

  6. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dankar Fida

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

  7. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  8. REVIEW: Towards a risk register for natural capital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, Georgina M; Hails, Rosemary S; Cryle, Philip; Harlow, Julian; Clarke, Stewart J

    2015-06-01

    Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk.We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset-benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset-benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern.The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset-benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). Synthesis and applications . With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset-benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the

  9. Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

    2005-05-01

    This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research

  10. Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

  11. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  12. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  13. Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety

  14. Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, Jeroen

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we explore the effect of large-scale natural disasters on sovereign default risk. We use a heterogeneous dynamic panel model including a set of more than 380 large-scale natural disasters for about forty emerging market countries in the period 1999-2010. After testing for the

  15. Isotopic identification of nitrogen hotspots across natural terrestrial ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bai

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen (N influences local biological processes, ecosystem productivity, the composition of the atmospheric-climate system, and the human endeavour as a whole. Here we use natural variations in N isotopes, coupled with two models, to trace global pathways of N loss from the land to the water and atmosphere. We show that denitrification accounts for approximately 35 % of total N losses from the natural soil, with NO, N2O, and N2 fluxes equal to 15.7 ± 4.7 Tg N yr−1, 10.2 ± 3.0 Tg N yr−1, and 21.0 ± 6.1 Tg N yr−1, respectively. Our analysis points to tropical regions as the major "hotspot" of nitrogen export from the terrestrial biosphere, accounting for 71 % of global N losses from the natural land surface. The poorly studied Congo Basin is further identified as one of the major natural sources of atmospheric N2O. Extra-tropical areas, by contrast, lose a greater fraction of N via leaching pathways (~77 % of total N losses than do tropical biomes, likely contributing to N limitations of CO2 uptake at higher latitudes. Our results provide an independent constraint on global models of the N cycle among different regions of the unfertilized biosphere.

  16. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  17. Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

  18. Pharmacophore-driven identification of PPARγ agonists from natural sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, R. K.; Christensen, Kathrine Bisgaard; Assimopoulou, A. N.

    2011-01-01

    mastic gum fractions, whereas some other sub-fractions exhibited also biological activity towards PPARγ. The results from the present work are two-fold: on the one hand we demonstrate that the pharmacophore model we developed is able to select novel ligand scaffolds that act as PPARγ agonists; while...... at the same time it manifests that natural products are highly relevant for use in virtual screening-based drug discovery....

  19. Technically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials; identification, characterization and treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, H.F.

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive materials (TENORM) is produced in a relatively large amount with relatively small radioactivity, however in many instances the radioactivity levels exceeds that permissible. In this presentation, the different industries where enhanced levels of natural radioactivity is identified and characterized will be given. The different approaches for treatment of this enhanced radioactivity will be addressed. Finally, our research and development activities in characterization and treatment of TENORM produced from the oil fields in Egypt will be presented. (authors)

  20. A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled

    2016-10-01

    It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools

  1. Identification of a natural human serotype 3 parainfluenza virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Xiao-Jing

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Parainfluenza virus is an important pathogen threatening the health of animals and human, which brings human many kinds of disease, especially lower respiratory tract infection involving infants and young children. In order to control the virus, it is necessary to fully understand the molecular basis resulting in the genetic diversity of the virus. Homologous recombination is one of mechanisms for the rapid change of genetic diversity. However, as a negative-strand virus, it is unknown whether the recombination can naturally take place in human PIV. In this study, we isolated and identified a mosaic serotype 3 human PIV (HPIV3 from in China, and also provided several putative PIV mosaics from previous reports to reveal that the recombination can naturally occur in the virus. In addition, two swine PIV3 isolates transferred from cattle to pigs were found to have mosaic genomes. These results suggest that homologous recombination can promote the genetic diversity and potentially bring some novel biologic characteristics of HPIV.

  2. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  3. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  4. IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

  5. Identification of buried victims in natural disaster with GPR method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi, Rianty Kusuma; Kurniawan, Adityo; Taqwantara, Reyhan Fariz; Iskandar, Farras M.; Naufal, Taufiq Ziyan; Widodo

    2017-07-01

    Indonesian is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and has very complicated plate convergence because there is meeting point of several tectonic plates. The complexity of tectonic features causes a lot of natural disasters such as landslides, tsunamis, earth quakes, volcanoes eruption, etc. Sometimes, the disasters occurs in high populated area and causing thousands to millions of victim been buried under the rumble. Unfortunately, the evacuation still uses the conventional method such using rescue dogs whereas the sensitivity of smell is decrease when the victims buried under the level of the ground. The purpose of this study is to detect buried bodies using GPR method, so it can enhance the effectiveness and the efficiency in looking for the disaster victims. GPR method is used because it can investigate things under the ground. A detailed GPR research has been done in Cikutra Graveyard, Bandung, with corpse buried two week until two years before the research. The radar profiles from this research showed amplitude contras anomaly between the new corpse and the old ones. We obtained the amplitude contras at 1.2-1.4 meters under the surface. This method proved to be effective but still need more attention on undulated surface and non-soil areas.

  6. Validity of photo-identification technique to analyze natural markings in Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Elgue

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Individual identification is useful for answering a variety of biological questions about animal life histories. Most of the techniques used to mark amphibians are invasive and can cause negative effects, compromising individual survivorship and biasing studies. Photo-identification consists in the identification of specimens based on photographic records of unique color-design patterns. This technique has been used with success in several amphibian species. Melanophryniscus montevidensis is an endangered anuran species inhabiting the Uruguayan Atlantic coast. The general pattern of coloration is black with red and yellow blotches on the belly. In this study, we validated the technique of photo-identification assisted by software for individual recognition in M. montevidensis using natural markings. Field trips were performed over 16 months during which, the ventral color pattern of specimens was photographed. The photos were edited and analyzed with the Wild-ID 1.0 software for photographic reconnaissance. An efficiency of 100% was obtained in the visual recognition and 90% in the detection of recaptures using the software. The use of photo-identification using natural marks is an effective technique in this species, because the color pattern of the belly was highly variable among individuals and remained unchanged in individuals over the 16 month period. In this evaluation the use of software for photo-identification was necessary for the treatment of large databases.

  7. Identification of deposit types of natural corundum by PIXE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chulapakorn, T.; Intarasiri, S.; Bootkul, D.; Singkarat, S.

    2014-01-01

    Natural corundum, one of the most important exports of Thailand, is a rare, durable and valuable gemstone. The value of these precious stones is determined by their visual appearances, including brilliance, color, fire (light dispersion) and luster. Corundum is an allochromatic mineral whose trace element concentration depends on the origin and has influence on price setting. This work attempts to use an alternative method to identify the geological deposits of rubies and sapphires found in the Thai market which came from various countries, e.g., Africa, Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand and USA. Interrelations between most important major trace elements are the main results of this work. Quantitative analysis of trace elements were performed by particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) technique, using 2-MeV proton beam generated and accelerated by the 1.7 MV tandem accelerator at Chiang Mai University. The trace elements of interest are Ti, Cr, Fe and Ga. We have found that the relationships between the ratios of trace element concentration can be used to classify the deposit type. Moreover, this method shows a clear separation between two main types of geological deposits, basaltic and metamorphic deposits, which further helps in determining the gemstone origin. For example, the gemstones from Cambodia, Thailand and the USA can be classified as the basaltic deposits with their high concentration in Fe but low in Ti, while the gemstones from Africa, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are metamorphic deposits because they have low Fe but high Ti concentrations. Both deposits required plots of pairs of trace elements and their ratios in population field appearance in order to distinguish their origins. The advantageous of these methods appear to be a new and a sustainable procedure for determining gemstone origins

  8. Identification of deposit types of natural corundum by PIXE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chulapakorn, T. [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand); Intarasiri, S., E-mail: saweat@gmail.com [Science and Technology Research Institute, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50202 (Thailand); Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Commission on Higher Education, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand); Bootkul, D., E-mail: mo_duangkhae@gmail.com [Department of General Science (Gems and Jewelry), Faculty of Science, Srinakharinwirot University, Sukhumvit 23, Bangkok 10110 (Thailand); Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Commission on Higher Education, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand); Singkarat, S. [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand); Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Commission on Higher Education, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand)

    2014-07-15

    Natural corundum, one of the most important exports of Thailand, is a rare, durable and valuable gemstone. The value of these precious stones is determined by their visual appearances, including brilliance, color, fire (light dispersion) and luster. Corundum is an allochromatic mineral whose trace element concentration depends on the origin and has influence on price setting. This work attempts to use an alternative method to identify the geological deposits of rubies and sapphires found in the Thai market which came from various countries, e.g., Africa, Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand and USA. Interrelations between most important major trace elements are the main results of this work. Quantitative analysis of trace elements were performed by particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) technique, using 2-MeV proton beam generated and accelerated by the 1.7 MV tandem accelerator at Chiang Mai University. The trace elements of interest are Ti, Cr, Fe and Ga. We have found that the relationships between the ratios of trace element concentration can be used to classify the deposit type. Moreover, this method shows a clear separation between two main types of geological deposits, basaltic and metamorphic deposits, which further helps in determining the gemstone origin. For example, the gemstones from Cambodia, Thailand and the USA can be classified as the basaltic deposits with their high concentration in Fe but low in Ti, while the gemstones from Africa, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are metamorphic deposits because they have low Fe but high Ti concentrations. Both deposits required plots of pairs of trace elements and their ratios in population field appearance in order to distinguish their origins. The advantageous of these methods appear to be a new and a sustainable procedure for determining gemstone origins.

  9. Identification of deposit types of natural corundum by PIXE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chulapakorn, T.; Intarasiri, S.; Bootkul, D.; Singkarat, S.

    2014-07-01

    Natural corundum, one of the most important exports of Thailand, is a rare, durable and valuable gemstone. The value of these precious stones is determined by their visual appearances, including brilliance, color, fire (light dispersion) and luster. Corundum is an allochromatic mineral whose trace element concentration depends on the origin and has influence on price setting. This work attempts to use an alternative method to identify the geological deposits of rubies and sapphires found in the Thai market which came from various countries, e.g., Africa, Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand and USA. Interrelations between most important major trace elements are the main results of this work. Quantitative analysis of trace elements were performed by particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) technique, using 2-MeV proton beam generated and accelerated by the 1.7 MV tandem accelerator at Chiang Mai University. The trace elements of interest are Ti, Cr, Fe and Ga. We have found that the relationships between the ratios of trace element concentration can be used to classify the deposit type. Moreover, this method shows a clear separation between two main types of geological deposits, basaltic and metamorphic deposits, which further helps in determining the gemstone origin. For example, the gemstones from Cambodia, Thailand and the USA can be classified as the basaltic deposits with their high concentration in Fe but low in Ti, while the gemstones from Africa, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are metamorphic deposits because they have low Fe but high Ti concentrations. Both deposits required plots of pairs of trace elements and their ratios in population field appearance in order to distinguish their origins. The advantageous of these methods appear to be a new and a sustainable procedure for determining gemstone origins.

  10. Identification of risk products for fragrance contact allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Andersen, T F; Kjøller, M

    1998-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance-mix-positive ecz......BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance......-mix-positive eczema patients and two control groups, one consisting of 1,279 subjects selected as a random sample of the general population and the other consisting of 806 fragrance-mix-negative eczema patients. The identification of risk products was based on the patients' histories of rash to scented products....... Analysis of the associations between first-time rash caused by different specified product categories and fragrance mix sensitivity was performed using logistic regression. RESULTS: It was found that first-time rash caused by deodorant sprays and/or perfumes were related to fragrance contact allergy...

  11. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  12. Using wavelet multi-resolution nature to accelerate the identification of fractional order system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yuan-Lu; Meng Xiao; Ding Ya-Qing

    2017-01-01

    Because of the fractional order derivatives, the identification of the fractional order system (FOS) is more complex than that of an integral order system (IOS). In order to avoid high time consumption in the system identification, the least-squares method is used to find other parameters by fixing the fractional derivative order. Hereafter, the optimal parameters of a system will be found by varying the derivative order in an interval. In addition, the operational matrix of the fractional order integration combined with the multi-resolution nature of a wavelet is used to accelerate the FOS identification, which is achieved by discarding wavelet coefficients of high-frequency components of input and output signals. In the end, the identifications of some known fractional order systems and an elastic torsion system are used to verify the proposed method. (paper)

  13. Electronic aids to the identification of bats in flight and to their study under natural conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Watson, Andrew

    1970-01-01

    Positive identification of bats usually requires visual inspection at close range or for a bat to be held in the hand. There are many people, particularly conservationists, who would like to study bats in their natural environment without disturbing them. The task of preparing distribution maps is

  14. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-08-15

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

  15. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Thaler, Marko; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor; Poredos, Alojz

    2007-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  16. The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

    2015-11-01

    This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Programme of identification and assessment of risks at Ukrainian milk processing factories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shvets Victor H.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of possible risks at a milk processing factory and their identification and assessment by relevant criteria and creation of the efficient risk management system with the help of methods of reacting to them. The article considers the economic risk of production processes at a milk processing factory and control of their limit, studies identification and assessment of possible risks in accordance with the international practice pursuant to the COSO concept, and analyses methods of identification of assessment of the risk level and relevant methods of reacting to them. The authors offer the milk processing factory risk identification and assessment programme, which would ensure timely detection of the most important risks, which require relevant reactions, and development of new methods of internal control and recommendations on improvement of the risk assessment system for ensuring efficient activity of a factory in general.

  18. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  19. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  20. Target identification of natural and traditional medicines with quantitative chemical proteomics approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jigang; Gao, Liqian; Lee, Yew Mun; Kalesh, Karunakaran A; Ong, Yong Siang; Lim, Jaehong; Jee, Joo-Eun; Sun, Hongyan; Lee, Su Seong; Hua, Zi-Chun; Lin, Qingsong

    2016-06-01

    Natural and traditional medicines, being a great source of drugs and drug leads, have regained wide interests due to the limited success of high-throughput screening of compound libraries in the past few decades and the recent technology advancement. Many drugs/bioactive compounds exert their functions through interaction with their protein targets, with more and more drugs showing their ability to target multiple proteins, thus target identification has an important role in drug discovery and biomedical research fields. Identifying drug targets not only furthers the understanding of the mechanism of action (MOA) of a drug but also reveals its potential therapeutic applications and adverse side effects. Chemical proteomics makes use of affinity chromatography approaches coupled with mass spectrometry to systematically identify small molecule-protein interactions. Although traditional affinity-based chemical proteomics approaches have made great progress in the identification of cellular targets and elucidation of MOAs of many bioactive molecules, nonspecific binding remains a major issue which may reduce the accuracy of target identification and may hamper the drug development process. Recently, quantitative proteomics approaches, namely, metabolic labeling, chemical labeling, or label-free approaches, have been implemented in target identification to overcome such limitations. In this review, we will summarize and discuss the recent advances in the application of various quantitative chemical proteomics approaches for the identification of targets of natural and traditional medicines. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  1. Falls' problematization and risk factors identification through older adults' narrative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsch, Patricia; Myskiw, Mauro; Myskiw, Jociane de Carvalho

    2016-11-01

    Falling is an important event for older adults as they might cause physical and psychological impairment, institutionalization and increased mortality risk. Adherence in falls prevention programs depends on older adults' perceptions in relation to falling. The current study aims to investigate the fall problematization and older adults' perception about the risk factors for falls. This is an exploratory qualitative research, conducted through content analysis approach. The sample consisted of older adults aged 60 years and older who participate in community groups in Porto Alegre (Brazil), and professors from two local universities. Final sample consisted of 22 participants, mean age was 70.2 ± 7.1. Coding and interpretation of data resulted in two thematic categories, named: falls' problematization and the perception of the risk factors for falling. The first category highlights that many older adults do not realize falling as a potential problem, which suggests that current preventive measures may not be reaching the target population. The second category shows that older adults' perceptions in relation to the risk factors exist, but often they are not avoided, because older adults consider their ability to "take care" as the main method of prevention, and due to the multifactorial nature of falls, this cannot be considered an efficient solution.

  2. Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vegt, R G

    2018-02-26

    This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  4. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  5. Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinneraas, Bjoern [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biometry and Engineering, Box 7032, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, Caroline [Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, SE-171 82 Solna (Sweden); Nordin, Annika [National Veterinary Institute, Department of Wild Life, Fish and Environment, SE-751 89 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-08-31

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10{sup 5} cfu ml{sup -1} were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m{sup -3} were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m{sup -3}. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (author)

  6. Identification of minority compounds in natural ilmenites by X-ray absorption spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klepka, M.T.; Lawniczak-Jablonska, K.; Wolska, A.; Jablonski, M.

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → White pigment TiO 2 production process. → The principal component analysis using XANES. → Ilmenite accompanying chemical compounds identification. → Chemical binding of Mg in ilmenite depends on the climatic and geological conditions. -- Abstract: Natural ilmenites are used all over the world as raw materials in white pigment (TiO 2 ) production. Besides the FeTiO 3 in the raw material many other compounds are present. The chemical compounds based on the minority elements influence quality of the final product and are difficult to identify. The knowledge about chemical bonding of the minor elements enables to properly adjust chemical reactions during production processes and to improve quality of the final product. In this paper the X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) identification of the chemical compounds formed by Mg, Mn and Cr in natural ilmenites originating from different places is presented.

  7. Effects of low harmonics on tone identification in natural and vocoded speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Azimi, Behnam; Tahmina, Qudsia; Hu, Yi

    2012-11-01

    This study investigated the contribution of low-frequency harmonics to identifying Mandarin tones in natural and vocoded speech in quiet and noisy conditions. Results showed that low-frequency harmonics of natural speech led to highly accurate tone identification; however, for vocoded speech, low-frequency harmonics yielded lower tone identification than stimuli with full harmonics, except for tone 4. Analysis of the correlation between tone accuracy and the amplitude-F0 correlation index suggested that "more" speech contents (i.e., more harmonics) did not necessarily yield better tone recognition for vocoded speech, especially when the amplitude contour of the signals did not co-vary with the F0 contour.

  8. Identification and determination of natural radioactive impurities in rare earth chlorides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu, M.J.; Cen, Y.H.; Tang, T.Y.; Chang, J.X.

    1988-01-01

    227 Ac, 228 Th, 226 Ra, 210 Po and 210 Pb can be present at rare earth chlorides. A radiochemical procedure is presented for the identification and determination of natural radioactive impurities in rare earth chlorides. The determination limits for these radionuclides were 1.5x10 -4 to 3x10 -1 Bq/g. The relative standard deviations for determining 10 -2 Bq/g radionuclides were usually less than +-7%. (author) 9 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  9. Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

    2012-12-01

    Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

  10. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

  11. Utilization of natural indicators for borax identification in the Indonesian tofu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purbaningtias, Tri Esti; Lestari, Intan Dwi; Wiyantoko, Bayu; Kurniawati, Puji; Sriadryani, Devi

    2017-03-01

    Borax has been found in food products i.e. on the Indonesian Tofu that is often consumed by people. Generally, the identification of borax in food products hard to do by the public. Indicators of natural materials will allow the public to identify the presence of borax in food easier. Qualitative test for borax on Indonesian Tofu showed purple cabbage and sappanwood are the effective natural indicators. The result of determining borax on Indonesian Tofu indicated natural indicator from purple cabbage had the smallest correction factor (with conventional indicators PP) about 4.8%. The results of the validation method for purple cabbage indicator in acid-base titration showed that the purple cabbage indicator is homogenous but unstable. The natural indicators of purple cabbage could not be used again after three days of extraction time based on the results of control chart.

  12. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  13. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the concept of a multifunctional dike has already often been implemented, and has been identified as a promising climate adaptation measure. In a multifunctional dike, functions like urban development, transport infrastructure, recreation, agriculture or nature are deliberately combined with its primary flood protection function. This means that the design must be based on the requirements and life span of all different functions, while in a monofunctional dike only the flood protection function is considered. By accommodating other functions, a multifunctional dike may easier fit into, or even contribute to the quality of the landscape. Moreover, these other functions may help in financing the flood protection works, but governance is more complicated. To avoid costly adjustments forthcoming from changed safety standards, incorporation of multiple functions can require a more “robust” flood defence than a monofunctional flood defence. A robust flood defence can withstand more extreme situations than required by the present safety standards, and has a substantially lower flooding probability. Therefore, a multifunctional dike may be attractive in view of the uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change and a changing world. Moreover, it will result in reduced flood risk. As part of the Dutch Delta programme, several explorative studies on multifunctional dikes were initiated. Most studies focused on urban areas, but also in the rural area interest emerged for multifunctional dikes, e.g. for the integration of salt marshes into the flood defences. Marshes provide valuable habitat for vegetation and invertebrate species, and are important for wading birds. Furthermore, under condition of abundant sediment availability they can keep pace with sea level rise. Explorative modelling results indicate that vegetated forelands affect wave heights, even under extreme conditions. However, the inclusion of a vegetated

  14. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanisch, Jörg

    A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

  16. Risk management of a fund for natural disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, C.

    2003-04-01

    Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0money borrowed at time t. For the initial model, we assume that the deterministic payments for risk transfer and debt are made at t=0. We determine c>0 at t=0 and then we try to pull at every moment the process to this objective. Multifractal models in geophysics are physically based stochastic models. A multiplicative cascade model fitted to a data set can be used for generation of synthetic sequences that resemble the original data in terms of its scaling properties. Since recent years, uncertainty concepts based on multifractal fields are being applied to the development of techniques to calculate marginal and conditional probabilities of an extreme rainfall event in a determined zone. As initial point to the development of the model, a multifractal model for extreme rainfall events will be used as part of the input for the stochastic control model. A theme for further research is linking more warning systems to the model. Keywords: risk management, stochastic control, multifractal measures, multiplicative cascades, heavy rainfall events.

  17. Identification of PPARgamma partial agonists of natural origin (II: in silico prediction in natural extracts with known antidiabetic activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guasch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts have played an important role in the prevention and treatment of diseases and are important sources for drug discovery. However, to be effectively used in these processes, natural extracts must be characterized through the identification of their active compounds and their modes of action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and using a previously developed virtual screening procedure (carefully validated experimentally, we have predicted as potential peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ partial agonists 12 molecules from 11 extracts known to have antidiabetic activity. Six of these molecules are similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity but whose mechanism of action is unknown. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be the bioactive molecules responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of the extracts containing them. In addition, we have also identified as potential PPARγ partial agonists 10 molecules from 16 plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity but that are related (i.e., they are from the same genus to plants with known antidiabetic properties. None of the 22 molecules that we predict as PPARγ partial agonists show chemical similarity with a group of 211 known PPARγ partial agonists obtained from the literature. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a new hypothesis about the active molecules of natural extracts with antidiabetic properties and their mode of action. We also suggest plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity that may contain PPARγ partial agonists. These plants represent a new source of potential antidiabetic extracts. Consequently, our work opens the door to the discovery of new antidiabetic extracts and molecules that can be of use, for instance, in the design of new antidiabetic drugs or functional foods focused

  18. Natural Disasters and Safety Risks at Nuclear Power Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tutnova, T.

    2012-04-01

    In the aftermath of Fukushima natural-technological disaster the global opinion on nuclear energy divided even deeper. While Germany, Italy and the USA are currently reevaluating their previous plans on nuclear growth, many states are committed to expand nuclear energy output. In China and France, where the industry is widely supported by policymakers, there is little talk about abandoning further development of nuclear energy. Moreover, China displays the most remarkable pace of nuclear development in the world: it is responsible for 40% of worldwide reactors under construction, and aims at least to quadruple its nuclear capacity by 2020. In these states the consequences of Fukushima natural-technological accident will probably result in safety checks and advancement of new reactor technologies. Thus, China is buying newer reactor design from the USA which relies on "passive safety systems". It means that emergency power generators, crucial for reactor cooling in case of an accident, won't depend on electricity, so that tsunami won't disable them like it happened in the case of Fukushima. Nuclear energy managed to draw lessons from previous nuclear accidents where technological and human factors played crucial role. But the Fukushima lesson shows that the natural hazards, nevertheless, were undervalued. Though the ongoing technological advancements make it possible to increase the safety of nuclear power plants with consideration of natural risks, it is not just a question of technology improvement. A necessary action that must be taken is the reevaluation of the character and sources of the potential hazards which natural disasters can bring to nuclear industry. One of the examples is a devastating impact of more than one natural disaster happening at the same time. This subject, in fact, was not taken into account before, while it must be a significant point in planning sites for new nuclear power plants. Another important lesson unveiled is that world nuclear

  19. Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roznik, Elizabeth A; Sapsford, Sarah J; Pike, David A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

    2015-08-21

    Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11-28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence.

  20. Moellerella wisconsensis: identification, natural antibiotic susceptibility and its dependency on the medium applied.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Ingo; Falsen, Enevold; Wiedemann, Bernd

    2003-01-01

    The present study establishes a data compilation on biochemical features and natural antibiotic susceptibilities of Moellerella wisconsensis strains. 17 moellerellae isolated from humans (n = 11), food (n = 5) and water (n = 1) were tested. Identification was carried out using two commercially available systems and conventional tests. MIC determinations of 74 antibiotics were performed applying a microdilution procedure in Cation-adjusted Mueller Hinton broth and IsoSensitest broth. M. wisconsensis was naturally sensitive to doxycycline, minocycline, all tested aminoglycosides, numerous beta-lactams, all fluoroquinolones, folate-pathway inhibitors, chloramphenicol and nitrofurantoin. Natural resistance was found with oxacillin, penicillin G, all tested macrolides, lincomycin, streptogramins, ketolides, glycopeptides, fusidic acid, linezolid and rifampicin. Medium-dependent differences in susceptibility affecting clinical assessment criteria were seen with tetracycline, clindamycin and fosfomycin. From the data of the present study it is possible that some moellerellae are misidentified as Klebsiella pneumoniae subsp. ozaenae.

  1. An efficient attack identification and risk prediction algorithm for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The social media is highly utilized cloud for storing huge amount of data. ... However, the adversarial scenario did not design properly to maintain the privacy of the ... Information Retrieval, Security Evaluation, Efficient Attack Identification and ...

  2. Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobaek Haff, Ingrid; Lindqvist, Ola; Loeland, Anders

    2008-01-01

    This report investigates the UK natural gas market, and tests whether it is a fair-game efficient forward market, using forward contracts ranging from one to five months time to delivery. The forward and spot price series are separately non-stationary, but cointegrated. Furthermore, the forward prices are biased predictors of both the future spot and the 1-month-ahead forward price. The risk premium on the forward prices is positive, as opposed to the US gas market, where the risk premium was found to be negative in similar work. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the storage model is an incomplete model for the relationship between the spot and forward prices. However, storage has a clear effect on this relationship, an effect that appears to be non-linear. (author)

  3. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  4. Climate change, natural disasters, and the risk of violent conflict

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slettebak, Rune Thorkildsen

    2012-07-01

    This PhD project aims to assess the relation between natural disasters triggered by extreme weather events and the risk of violent conflict. The focus on these natural disasters stems from expectations that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, combined with frequent suggestions that climate change in general and natural disasters in particular can be expected to trigger more violent conflicts. A number of conflict types, ranging from riots to civil war, are tested. Case studies have found examples where environmental factors have contributed to triggering conflict. However, without systematic assessments, we do not know whether these cases are exceptions or parts of a common pattern. Learning more about this is a prime aim of this thesis. As the effects of climate change are still mainly in the future, I turn to the past for learning more about these connections. Although future relations may differ from those in the past, learning from history is considered the best way of increasing our basis of knowledge on what to expect from the future. The thesis tests two opposing theoretical traditions against each other. On one side is the environmental security literature, which holds that environmentally induced adversity is likely to increase the risk of violent conflict. The other, relatively unknown tradition, called disaster sociology, expects adversity to stimulate altruistic behavior and replace past ascribed identities with new 'communities of sufferers' in the disaster aftermath. In a violent conflict setting, this argument is read as that disasters should reduce conflict risk. Four analyses have been conducted. The first has a global coverage, two focus on India and the last one on Indonesia. The first analysis aims to uncover general trends, while the three others use cases where environmentally driven violence is considered particularly likely, and disaggregated analytical designs that should be well

  5. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  6. Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Identification- A Case Finding from Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Nyamah Edmond Yeboah; Yi Feng; Oppong-Sekyere Daniel; Nyamaah Boadi Joseph

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates and identifies the probable supply chain related risks in Ghana agricultural supply chain and further seeks the severity of these risks based on engineering judgments and historical records. In addition, this paper probes into participants¡¯ ability level to manage/control the identified risk. The results indicate that, not all global supply chain related risks transpire in Ghana agricultural supply chain. While some risks such as market related risks are inevitable in...

  7. Risk identification in food safety: Strategy and outcomes of the EFSA emerging risks exchange network (EREN), 2010-2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, M. C.; Goumperis, T.; Andersson, W.

    2017-01-01

    should be considered emerging or not, and if it merited further consideration, such as generating data on the issue, starting a full risk assessment and/or consultation of other bodies. According to the emerging risks identification process set in place at EFSA, the issues discussed and found...

  8. Simultaneous identification of synthetic and natural dyes in different food samples by UPLC-MS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Badal Kumar; Mathiyalagan, Siva; Dalavai, Ramesh; Ling, Yong-Chien

    2017-11-01

    Fast foods and variety food items are populating among the food lovers. To improve the appearance of the food product in surviving gigantic competitive environment synthetic or natural food dyes are added to food items and beverages. Although regulatory bodies permit addition of natural colorants due to its safe and nontoxic nature in food, synthetic dyes are stringently controlled in all food products due to their toxicity by regulatory bodies. Artificial colors are need certification from the regulatory bodies for human consumption. To analyze food dyes in different food samples many analytical techniques are available like high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), thin layer chromatography (TLC), spectroscopic and gas chromatographic methods. However all these reported methods analyzed only synthetic dyes or natural dyes. Not a single method has analyzed both synthetic and natural dyes in a single run. In this study a robust ultra-performance liquid chromatographic method for simultaneous identification of 6 synthetic dyes (Tartrazine, Indigo carmine, Briliant blue, Fast green, malachite green, sunset yellow) and one natural dye (Na-Cu-Chlorophyllin) was developed using acquitic UPLC system equipped with Mass detector and acquity UPLC HSS T3 column (1.8 μm, 2.1 × 50 mm, 100Å). All the dyes were separated and their masses were determined through fragments’ masses analyses.

  9. Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm

    2006-08-01

    Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

  10. Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

  11. Chances and risks in the sale of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaeth, F.

    1995-01-01

    'Natural gas is number one among the growth industries of the energy sector' proclaim today's augurs. What with growth rates of 20% in western and more than 100% in eastern Germany, the gas supply companies could really look ahead in confidence. However, the situation does not merit unrestrained euphoria. For one thing, predictions should quite generally be viewed with a good measure of healthy scepticism, or, as Prof. Dr. Dieter Schmitt, energy economist from Essen, recently put it in a nutshell: 'Prognoses are no prophecies. Only prophets are really able to tell the future'. The other point is that natural gas will only be able to carry its past success on into the future if it can fulfill the consumer's expectations regarding security of supply, environment and climate friendly utilisation, possibilities to save energy, and, most important of all, competitivity. The last point, in particular, is beset with many imponderabilities on which gas supply companies have little influence. Therefore, despite the favourable forecasts, the chances and risks involved in the sale of natural gas must be assessed judiciously. (orig.) [de

  12. Natural Disasters, Corpses and the Risk of Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JM Conly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent occurrence of the category 4 Hurricane Katrina devastated the United States? Gulf Coast. The hurricane caused widespread destruction and flooding, and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless. The mounting death toll was reported at almost 300 deaths as of September 8, 2005 (1,2. The unfolding events and high death toll have left an unusual situation in which there are many decomposing corpses either lying on the streets or floating in the flood waters. The presence of these corpses in open settings, such as in public places and in the water that has inundated much of the city of New Orleans, naturally raises concerns about the occurrence of infectious disease epidemics (3. In the aftermath of large natural disasters, instinctive uncertainties arise among workers and the general population with respect to the appropriate handling and disposal of dead bodies and human remains. Given the recent occurrence of Hurricane Katrina as a large natural disaster and the unprecedented setting of the numerous corpses requiring disposal, it was considered timely to review the infectious disease risks associated with the handling of dead bodies.

  13. Earth observation technologies in service to the cultural landscape of Cyprus: risk identification and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuca, Branka; Tzouvaras, Marios; Agapiou, Athos; Lysandrou, Vasiliki; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Nisantzi, Argyro; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.

    2016-08-01

    The Cultural landscapes are witnesses of "the creative genius, social development and the imaginative and spiritual vitality of humanity. They are part of our collective identity", as it is internationally defined and accepted (ICOMOSUNESCO). The need for their protection, management and inclusion in the territorial policies has already been widely accepted and pursued. There is a great number of risks to which the cultural landscapes are exposed, arising mainly from natural (both due to slow geo-physical phenomena as well as hazards) and anthropogenic causes (e.g. urbanisation pressure, agriculture, landscape fragmentation etc.). This paper explores to what extent Earth Observation (EO) technologies can contribute to identify and evaluate the risks to which Cultural Landscapes of Cyprus are exposed, taking into consideration specific phenomena, such as land movements and soil erosion. The research of the paper is illustrated as part of the activities carried out in the CLIMA project - "Cultural Landscape risk Identification, Management and Assessment". It aims to combine the fields of remote sensing technologies, including Sentinel data, and monitoring of cultural landscape for its improved protection and management. Part of this approach will be based on the use of InSAR techniques in order to monitor the temporal evolution of deformations through the detection and measurement of the effects of surface movements caused by various factors. The case study selected for Cyprus is the Nea Paphos archeological site and historical center of Paphos, which are listed as UNESCO World Heritage sites. The interdisciplinary approach adopted in this research was useful to identify major risks affecting the landscape of Cyprus and to classify the most suitable EO methods to assess and map such risks.

  14. Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

  15. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  16. Identification of natural indigo in historical textiles by GC-MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degani, Laura; Riedo, Chiara; Chiantore, Oscar

    2015-02-01

    The possibility of successfully applying a common GC-MS procedure for identification in one step of all types of dyes from plants of unknown origin and from historical objects is particularly attractive due to the high separation efficiency of the capillary columns, the MS detection sensitivity and the reproducibility of results. In this work, GC-MS analysis, previously and successfully used for the characterization of anthraquinones, flavonoids and tannins from plant extracts and historical samples, has been tested on indigoid dyestuffs. An analytical procedure based on the silylating agent N,O-bis-(trimethylsilyl)trifluoroacetamide (BSTFA) with 1% trimethylchlorosilane (TMCS) was applied to pure molecules of indigotin and indirubin and to plant extracts of Indigofera tinctoria L. and Isatis tinctoria L. Preliminary tests have been done to establish the chromatographic conditions and the derivatization amounts most suitable for the simultaneous detection of indigoid molecules and of the other natural compounds, such as fatty acids, carboxylic acids and sugars, contained within the plant extracts. In order to assess the capacity and the sensitivity of the analytical procedure in typical archaeometric applications, wool samples dyed in the laboratory with indigo were analysed by mimicking the sample amounts typically available with historical objects. The electron ionization (EI) spectra of the main silylated derivatives of indigoid molecules obtained in this way constitute the necessary data set for the characterization of natural extracts and historical works of art. Subsequently, the procedure has been applied to historical samples for the detection of indigo and of other dyestuffs eventually contained in samples. Additional information, useful for restoration and preservation of works of art, could be also obtained on the nature of stains and smudges present on the sampled textile material. The GC-MS method turns out to be an efficient and fast analytical tool

  17. Climate and weather risk in natural resource models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Nathaniel Henry

    This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under risk due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic model for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly risk-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting risk levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this risk-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater model that incorporates the gradual shift

  18. Identification of natural red and purple dyes on textiles by Fiber-optics Reflectance Spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynez-Rojas, M A; Casanova-González, E; Ruvalcaba-Sil, J L

    2017-05-05

    Understanding dye chemistry and dye processes is an important issue for studies of cultural heritage collections and science conservation. Fiber Optics Reflectance Spectroscopy (FORS) is a powerful technique, which allows preliminary dye identification, causing no damage or mechanical stress on the artworks subjected to analysis. Some information related to specific light scattering and absorption can be obtained in the UV-visible and infrared range (300-1400nm) and it is possible to discriminate the kind of support fiber in the near infrared region (1000-2500nm). The main spectral features of natural dye fibers samples, such as reflection maxima, inflection points and reflection minima, can be used in the differentiation of various red natural dyes. In this work, a set of dyed references were manufactured following Mexican recipes with red dyes (cochineal and brazilwood) in order to determine the characteristic FORS spectral features of fresh and aged dyed fibers for their identification in historical pieces. Based on these results, twenty-nine indigenous textiles belonging to the National Commission for the Development of Indigenous People of Mexico were studied. Cochineal and brazilwood were successfully identified by FORS in several pieces, as well as the mixture of cochineal and indigo for purple color. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  20. Early identification and intervention in children at risk for reading difficulties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regtvoort, A.G.F.M.

    2014-01-01

    In pre-readers, a familial background of dyslexia and/or delayed emergent literacy should be considered a not-to-ignore risk signalling problems with learning to read. This thesis aims to study early identification and intervention in at-risk children shortly before or after the start of formal

  1. Risk identification in the infrastructure construction industry : a supply chain case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Achard, P.O.; Nucciarelli, A.; Rosato, R.; Svensson, G.

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this article is to describe the risk identification within a supply chain of an infrastructure construction project. This research is based on a case study of risk management within a supply chain in the infrastructure construction industry. Data have been collected from an

  2. A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-01-01

    Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

  3. Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Steinhäusler; Stan, Rydell; Lyudmila, Zaitseva

    2008-08-01

    The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb). This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment.

  4. Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedrich, Steinhaeusler; Lyudmila, Zaitseva; Stan, Rydell

    2008-01-01

    The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb).This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment

  5. Identification of risks stemming from new communication technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lessis, Vasileios; Taylor, J.R.; Kozin, Igor

    Advanced distributed communication technologies play an important role today in the control and maintenance of safety -critical systems. However, the excessively optimistic reliance on the new technology without ecognizing the threats against its successful functioning, being able to maintain...... proved to be effective tools in developing more reliable and robust systems. As technology is developing fast though, a new need for an effective hazard identification methodology has emerged. To enhance the predictive performance of hazard identification in advanced distributed communication systems, we...... have envisioned and currently developing a multilevel-multidimensional HAZOP methodology. The methodology introduces a new creative thinking stimulation model to substitute the conventional guideword-based approaches that is based on a multiple level and dimension exploration of the system under...

  6. Coping strategies, stress and risk perception in a natural and industrial catastrophe risk situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Vasquez, E.

    1998-01-01

    People are exposed to different environmental risks, their manifestations harm people according to the magnitude, intensity and the number of people concerned. This subject is very ample, therefore we consider only two kinds of risks: the natural risks (especially earthquakes) that have always threatened humanity, and the industrial risks that characterise our modern society. We are interested in risk perception, stress and coping strategies in these two kinds of extreme situations. We concentrate our study on two Mexican events: an industrial explosion accident in 1984 and 1985 (big earthquake, both devastated big urban zones. The consequences were enormous at all levels: personal, psychological, social, political and economical. Facing risk situations people can have stress reactions when a sign of danger appears. According to Jean RIVOLIER (1994), these situations must not be confounded with banal events of everyday life. Stress in those cases is not the stress we confront everyday, so people have to apply other strategies to face she stress and the incidents of the kind of extreme situations. To tackle our subject we are going to review some concepts used in our study: stress, coping strategies and risk perception. (author)

  7. Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Jones

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however, we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields, with important consequences for food security, markets, transport, and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas, whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods

  8. Determination of risk identification process employed by NHS for a PFI hospital project in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. E. Mohamed Ghazali

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term concession contracts associated with Private Finance Initiative (PFI projects, such as National Health Service (NHS hospitals, are subject to substantial risks, which may not only emerge from project activities such as design and construction, but also from global issues beyond the control of project parties, such as commercial, legal and political risks. Therefore, the principal parties involved must manage risks effectively and efficiently, as early as the project initiation stage, in order to ensure a successful delivery. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk identification process of the NHS PFI hospital in the UK, as a case study, in order to determine the techniques used in risk identification, and their significance, based on estimated probabilities of occurrence. These objectives were achieved through interviews with key personnel within the NHS Trust involved. Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre-commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process.

  9. Identification of Risk Factors for Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shea, M. T; Hebert, Norman J

    2007-01-01

    The primary research aims are to examine the early longitudinal course of PTSD symptoms and test hypotheses regarding risk factors for chronic PTSD in military personnel returning from Iraq or Afghanistan...

  10. A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

    2009-12-01

    VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

  11. Identification of natural metabolites in mixture: a pattern recognition strategy based on (13)C NMR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert, Jane; Nuzillard, Jean-Marc; Purson, Sylvain; Hamzaoui, Mahmoud; Borie, Nicolas; Reynaud, Romain; Renault, Jean-Hugues

    2014-03-18

    Because of their highly complex metabolite profile, the chemical characterization of bioactive natural extracts usually requires time-consuming multistep purification procedures to achieve the structural elucidation of pure individual metabolites. The aim of the present work was to develop a dereplication strategy for the identification of natural metabolites directly within mixtures. Exploiting the polarity range of metabolites, the principle was to rapidly fractionate a multigram quantity of a crude extract by centrifugal partition extraction (CPE). The obtained fractions of simplified chemical composition were subsequently analyzed by (13)C NMR. After automatic collection and alignment of (13)C signals across spectra, hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) was performed for pattern recognition. As a result, strong correlations between (13)C signals of a single structure within the mixtures of the fraction series were visualized as chemical shift clusters. Each cluster was finally assigned to a molecular structure with the help of a locally built (13)C NMR chemical shift database. The proof of principle of this strategy was achieved on a simple model mixture of commercially available plant secondary metabolites and then applied to a bark extract of the African tree Anogeissus leiocarpus Guill. & Perr. (Combretaceae). Starting from 5 g of this genuine extract, the fraction series was generated by CPE in only 95 min. (13)C NMR analyses of all fractions followed by pattern recognition of (13)C chemical shifts resulted in the unambiguous identification of seven major compounds, namely, sericoside, trachelosperogenin E, ellagic acid, an epimer mixture of (+)-gallocatechin and (-)-epigallocatechin, 3,3'-di-O-methylellagic acid 4'-O-xylopyranoside, and 3,4,3'-tri-O-methylflavellagic acid 4'-O-glucopyranoside.

  12. Physics-Based Identification, Modeling and Risk Management for Aeroelastic Flutter and Limit-Cycle Oscillations (LCO), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed research program will develop a physics-based identification, modeling and risk management infrastructure for aeroelastic transonic flutter and...

  13. Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaldi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply

  14. Systematic identification of regulatory variants associated with cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Song; Liu, Yuwen; Zhang, Qin; Wu, Jiayu; Liang, Junbo; Yu, Shan; Wei, Gong-Hong; White, Kevin P; Wang, Xiaoyue

    2017-10-23

    Most cancer risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are noncoding and it is challenging to assess their functional impacts. To systematically identify the SNPs that affect gene expression by modulating activities of distal regulatory elements, we adapt the self-transcribing active regulatory region sequencing (STARR-seq) strategy, a high-throughput technique to functionally quantify enhancer activities. From 10,673 SNPs linked with 996 cancer risk-associated SNPs identified in previous GWAS studies, we identify 575 SNPs in the fragments that positively regulate gene expression, and 758 SNPs in the fragments with negative regulatory activities. Among them, 70 variants are regulatory variants for which the two alleles confer different regulatory activities. We analyze in depth two regulatory variants-breast cancer risk SNP rs11055880 and leukemia risk-associated SNP rs12142375-and demonstrate their endogenous regulatory activities on expression of ATF7IP and PDE4B genes, respectively, using a CRISPR-Cas9 approach. By identifying regulatory variants associated with cancer susceptibility and studying their molecular functions, we hope to help the interpretation of GWAS results and provide improved information for cancer risk assessment.

  15. Security risks associated with radio frequency identification in medical environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawrylak, Peter J; Schimke, Nakeisha; Hale, John; Papa, Mauricio

    2012-12-01

    Radio frequency identification (RFID) is a form of wireless communication that is used to identify assets and people. RFID has significant benefits to the medical environment. However, serious security threats are present in RFID systems that must be addressed in a medical environment. Of particular interest are threats to patient privacy and safety based on interception of messages, interruption of communication, modification of data, and fabrication of messages and devices. This paper presents an overview of these security threats present in RFID systems in a medical environment and provides guidance on potential solutions to these threats. This paper provides a roadmap for researchers and implementers to address the security issues facing RFID in the medical space.

  16. On problem of competing risks and their identification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, 1-2 (2015), s. 85-92 ISSN 1210-8022 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-14445S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Survival analysis * competing risks * copula Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/volf-0444645.pdf

  17. Identification of older hospitalized patients at risk for functional decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerduijn, J.G.

    2011-01-01

    Between 30% and 60% of older patients experience functional decline after hospitalization, resulting in a decline in health-related quality of life and autonomy. This is associated with increased risk of readmission, nursing home placement and mortality, increased length of hospital stay and

  18. Identification of cancer risk and associated behaviour: implications for social marketing campaigns for cancer prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kippen, Rebecca; James, Erica; Ward, Bernadette; Buykx, Penny; Shamsullah, Ardel; Watson, Wendy; Chapman, Kathy

    2017-08-17

    Community misconception of what causes cancer is an important consideration when devising communication strategies around cancer prevention, while those initiating social marketing campaigns must decide whether to target the general population or to tailor messages for different audiences. This paper investigates the relationships between demographic characteristics, identification of selected cancer risk factors, and associated protective behaviours, to inform audience segmentation for cancer prevention social marketing. Data for this cross-sectional study (n = 3301) are derived from Cancer Council New South Wales' 2013 Cancer Prevention Survey. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between respondent demographic characteristics and identification of each of seven cancer risk factors; demographic characteristics and practice of the seven 'protective' behaviours associated with the seven cancer risk factors; and identification of cancer risk factors and practising the associated protective behaviours, controlling for demographic characteristics. More than 90% of respondents across demographic groups identified sun exposure and smoking cigarettes as moderate or large cancer risk factors. Around 80% identified passive smoking as a moderate/large risk factor, and 40-60% identified being overweight or obese, drinking alcohol, not eating enough vegetables and not eating enough fruit. Women and older respondents were more likely to identify most cancer risk factors as moderate/large, and to practise associated protective behaviours. Education was correlated with identification of smoking as a moderate/large cancer risk factor, and with four of the seven protective behaviours. Location (metropolitan/regional) and country of birth (Australia/other) were weak predictors of identification and of protective behaviours. Identification of a cancer risk factor as moderate/large was a significant predictor for five out

  19. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi; Na, Seong H.

    2016-01-01

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  20. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  1. Public opinion about biofuels: The interplay between party identification and risk/benefit perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fung, Timothy K.F.; Choi, Doo Hun; Scheufele, Dietram A.; Shaw, Bret R.

    2014-01-01

    Using an experiment embedded within a representative survey, this study examined the interactive effect of party identification and risk/benefit perception on public opinion about biofuels. Democrats tended to be more supportive of biofuels than Republicans. However, the effect of party identification on opinion about biofuels varied when individuals considered the risk/benefit of biofuels in different domains. Individuals who reported greater affiliation with the Democratic Party were likely to support funding biofuels research when primed with the economic risks or the social/ethical benefits of biofuels. For those who considered the social/ethical benefits of biofuels, more self-identified Democrats were likely to support biofuels production and use. However, more self-identified Democrats were less supportive of biofuels production and use when they considered the political risks of biofuels. Implications are discussed. - Highlights: • We examined public opinion about biofuels policies. • Effect of risk/benefit perception varied across respondents' party identification. • Democrats favored more research when considering economic risks or social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels more when considering social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels less when considering political risks

  2. Serendipitous identification of natural intergenotypic recombinants of hepatitis C in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Moreau, Isabelle

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recombination between hepatitis C single stranded RNA viruses is a rare event. Natural viable intragenotypic and intergenotypic recombinants between 1b-1a, 1a-1c and 2k-1b, 2i-6p, respectively, have been reported. Diagnostically recombinants represent an intriguing challenge. Hepatitis C genotype is defined by interrogation of the sequence composition of the 5\\' untranslated region [5\\'UTR]. Occasionally, ambiguous specimens require further investigation of the genome, usually by interrogation of the NS5B region. The original purpose of this study was to confirm the existence of a suspected mixed genotype infection of genotypes 2 and 4 by clonal analysis at the NS5B region of the genome in two specimens from two separate individuals. This initial identification of genotype was based on analysis of the 5\\'UTR of the genome by reverse line probe hybridisation [RLPH]. RESULTS: The original diagnosis of a mixed genotype infection was not confirmed by clonal analysis of the NS5B region of the genome. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that both specimens were natural intergenotypic recombinant forms of HCV. The recombination was between genotypes 2k and 1b for both specimens. The recombination break point was identified as occurring within the NS2 region of the genome. CONCLUSION: The viral recombinants identified here resemble the recombinant form originally identified in Russia. The RLPH pattern observed in this study may be a signature indicative of this particular type of intergenotype recombinant of hepatitis C meriting clonal analysis of NS2.

  3. Identification of manganese as a toxicant in a groundwater treatment system: Addressing naturally occurring toxicants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodfellow, W. Jr.; Sohn, V.; Richey, M.; Yost, J.

    1995-01-01

    Effluent from a groundwater remediation system at a bulk oil storage and distribution terminal has been chronically toxic to Ceriodaphnia dubia. The remediation system was designed in response to a hydrocarbon plume in the area of the terminal. The remediation system consists of a series of groundwater recovery wells and groundwater intercept trench systems with groundwater treatment and phased-separated hydrocarbon recovery systems. The groundwater treatment and petroleum recovery systems consist of oil/water separators, product recovery tanks, air strippers, filters, and carbon adsorption units. The characteristics of this effluent are low total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, and hardness concentrations as well as meeting stringent NPDES permit requirements for lead, copper, zinc, mercury, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and BTEX. Additional priority pollutant evaluations revealed no compounds of concern. Performance of a Toxicity identification Evaluation (TIE) indicated that manganese was the principle toxicant in the effluent. Manganese is a naturally occurring constituent in this groundwater source and is not added to the treatment system. This paper will present the results of the TIE with a discussion of treatability/control options for manganese control at this facility. Recommendations for addressing naturally occurring toxicants that are not a result of the facility's operations will also be presented

  4. Profiling oil sands mixtures from industrial developments and natural groundwaters for source identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Richard A; Roy, James W; Bickerton, Greg; Rowland, Steve J; Headley, John V; Scarlett, Alan G; West, Charles E; Peru, Kerry M; Parrott, Joanne L; Conly, F Malcolm; Hewitt, L Mark

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify chemical components that could distinguish chemical mixtures in oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) that had potentially migrated to groundwater in the oil sands development area of northern Alberta, Canada. In the first part of the study, OSPW samples from two different tailings ponds and a broad range of natural groundwater samples were assessed with historically employed techniques as Level-1 analyses, including geochemistry, total concentrations of naphthenic acids (NAs) and synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS). While these analyses did not allow for reliable source differentiation, they did identify samples containing significant concentrations of oil sands acid-extractable organics (AEOs). In applying Level-2 profiling analyses using electrospray ionization high resolution mass spectrometry (ESI-HRMS) and comprehensive multidimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOF/MS) to samples containing appreciable AEO concentrations, differentiation of natural from OSPW sources was apparent through measurements of O2:O4 ion class ratios (ESI-HRMS) and diagnostic ions for two families of suspected monoaromatic acids (GC × GC-TOF/MS). The resemblance between the AEO profiles from OSPW and from 6 groundwater samples adjacent to two tailings ponds implies a common source, supporting the use of these complimentary analyses for source identification. These samples included two of upward flowing groundwater collected <1 m beneath the Athabasca River, suggesting OSPW-affected groundwater is reaching the river system.

  5. Drug Target Identification and Elucidation of Natural Inhibitors for : An Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surya Narayan Rath

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental microbes like Bordetella petrii has been established as a causative agent for various infectious diseases in human. Again, development of drug resistance in B. petrii challenged to combat against the infection. Identification of potential drug target and proposing a novel lead compound against the pathogen has a great aid and value. In this study, bioinformatics tools and technology have been applied to suggest a potential drug target by screening the proteome information of B. petrii DSM 12804 (accession No. PRJNA28135 from genome database of National Centre for Biotechnology information. In this regards, the inhibitory effect of nine natural compounds like ajoene (Allium sativum, allicin (A. sativum, cinnamaldehyde (Cinnamomum cassia, curcumin (Curcuma longa, gallotannin (active component of green tea and red wine, isoorientin (Anthopterus wardii, isovitexin (A. wardii, neral (Melissa officinalis, and vitexin (A. wardii have been acknowledged with anti-bacterial properties and hence tested against identified drug target of B. petrii by implicating computational approach. The in silico studies revealed the hypothesis that lpxD could be a potential drug target and with recommendation of a strong inhibitory effect of selected natural compounds against infection caused due to B. petrii, would be further validated through in vitro experiments.

  6. Identification and management of patients at increased risk of osteoporotic fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanis, J A; Cooper, C; Rizzoli, R

    2017-01-01

    where the risk of a subsequent fracture following a first fracture is high. Consequently, there is a significant treatment gap between those who would benefit from treatment and those who receive it, which urgently needs to be addressed so that the burden of disease can be reduced. Conclusions......Summary: Osteoporosis represents a significant and increasing healthcare burden in Europe, but most patients at increased risk of fracture do not receive medication, resulting in a large treatment gap. Identification of patients who are at particularly high risk will help clinicians target...... appropriate treatment more precisely and cost-effectively, and should be the focus of future research. Introduction: The purpose of the study was to review data on the identification and treatment of patients with osteoporosis at increased risk of fracture. Methods: A working group convened by the European...

  7. Identification of risk factors of computer information technologies in education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrebniak M.P.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The basic direction of development of secondary school and vocational training is computer training of schoolchildren and students, including distance forms of education and widespread usage of world information systems. The purpose of the work is to determine risk factors for schoolchildren and students, when using modern information and computer technologies. Results of researches allowed to establish dynamics of formation of skills using computer information technologies in education and characteristics of mental ability among schoolchildren and students during training in high school. Common risk factors, while operating CIT, are: intensification and formalization of intellectual activity, adverse ergonomic parameters, unfavorable working posture, excess of hygiene standards by chemical and physical characteristics. The priority preventive directions in applying computer information technology in education are: improvement of optimal visual parameters of activity, rationalization of ergonomic parameters, minimizing of adverse effects of chemical and physical conditions, rationalization of work and rest activity.

  8. Tacking Flood Risk from Watersheds using a Natural Flood Risk Management Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reaney, S. M.; Pearson, C.; Barber, N.; Fraser, A.

    2017-12-01

    In the UK, flood risk management is moving beyond solely mitigating at the point of impact in towns and key infrastructure to tackle problem at source through a range of landscape based intervention measures. This natural flood risk management (NFM) approach has been trailed within a range of catchments in the UK and is moving towards being adopted as a key part of flood risk management. The approach offers advantages including lower cost and co-benefits for water quality and habitat creation. However, for an agency or group wishing to implement NFM within a catchment, there are two key questions that need to be addressed: Where in the catchment to place the measures? And how many measures are needed to be effective? With this toolkit, these questions are assessed with a two-stage workflow. First, SCIMAP-Flood gives a risk based mapping of likely locations that contribute to the flood peak. This tool uses information on land cover, hydrological connectivity, flood generating rainfall patterns and hydrological travel time distributions to impacted communities. The presented example applies the tool to the River Eden catchment, UK, with 5m grid resolution and hence provide sub-field scale information at the landscape extent. SCIMAP-Flood identifies sub-catchments where physically based catchment hydrological simulation models can be applied to test different NFM based mitigation measures. In this example, the CRUM3 catchment hydrological model has been applied within an uncertainty framework to consider the effectiveness of soil compaction reduction and large woody debris dams within a sub-catchment. It was found that large scale soil aeration to reduce soil compaction levels throughout the catchment is probably the most useful natural flood management measure for this catchment. NFM has potential for wide-spread application and these tools help to ensure that the measures are correctly designed and the scheme performance can be quantitatively assessed and predicted.

  9. Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. [Identification of risk factors in relatives of type-2 diabetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas-Alvarez, Norma Angélica; Vela-Otero, Yolanda; Carrada-Brav, Teodoro

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors and warning signs in a sample of first-degree relatives of type-2 diabetics at the Family Medicine Unit 2 of the General Hospital in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico. In a non-probabilistic sample of 360 relatives, a 14-item questionnaire was applied to measure abdominal perimeter and body mass index (obesity and overweight), eating habits, addictions and sedentarism. The questionnaire was made by general consent of experts, by applying Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. Specific rates of prevalence by sex and age groups were estimated. 233 (65%) relatives were females. As part of their family history background, arterial hypertension was recorded in 263 (73%) and acute myocardial infarction in 97 (27%). Among the dangerous food for health consumed by the relatives of diabetics are cola drinks in 94.7%, red meat in 83%, candies in 74.7% and chips in 65.8%; only half of them consumed fresh fruits and vegetables; a quarter of them ate prickly pears or whole wheat bread. There were 163 (45.3%) persons with high-risk abdominal perimeter, and sedentarism was present in 267 (74.2%). However, obesity was 3 times more frequent in females, but excessive drinking or smoking habits were 7 times more prevailing in males. A high-risk behavior was demonstrated among relativies of diabetic patients. Therefore, a public-health educational program is required to modify risky habits. A change towards prevention rather than cure is much needed in health staff.

  11. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  12. Scorecard implementation improves identification of postpartum patients at risk for venous thromboembolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkin, Jill A; Lee, Colleen; Landsberger, Ellen; Chazotte, Cynthia; Bernstein, Peter S; Goffman, Dena

    2016-07-01

    To evaluate if an intensive educational intervention in the use of a standardized venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment tool (scorecard) improves physicians' identification and chemoprophylaxis of postpartum patients at risk for VTE. After implementation of a VTE scorecard and prior to an intensive educational intervention, postpartum patients (n = 140) were evaluated to assess scorecard completion, risk factors, and chemoprophylaxis. A performance improvement campaign focusing on patient safety, VTE prevention, and scorecard utilization was then conducted. Evaluation of the same parameters was subsequently performed for a similar group of patients (n = 133). Differences in scorecard utilization and risk assessment were tested for statistical significance. Population-at-risk rates were similar in both assessment periods (31.4% vs 28.6%; p = NS). The greatest risk factors included cesarean delivery, body mass index (BMI) >30 and age >35. Scorecard completion rates for all patients increased in the postintervention period (15.7% vs 67.7%; p scorecard completion rates for the at-risk population also improved (20% vs 79%; p risk with completed scorecards had higher prophylaxis rates than those at risk without scorecards (73% vs 25%; p = .03). At-risk patients with completed scorecards had 2.6 times more orders for chemoprophylaxis than at-risk patients without scorecards in both time periods (odds ratio [OR] = 8.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-22.8). Utilization of a VTE scorecard coupled with an educational intervention for health care providers increases detection and chemoprophylaxis orders for at-risk patients. Encouraging universal scorecard assessment standardizes identification and chemoprophylaxis of at-risk patients who were otherwise not perceived to be at risk. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  13. Identification of Risk Factors Associated with Transmission of Plague Disease in Eastern Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyirenda, Stanley S; Hang'ombe, Bernard M; Machang'u, Robert; Mwanza, Jackson; Kilonzo, Bukheti S

    2017-09-01

    Plague is a fatal, primarily rodent-flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis . The identification of risk factors of plague was investigated through questionnaire interview and conducting focus group discussion (FGD) in Sinda and Nyimba districts of eastern Zambia. A total of 104 questionnaires were administered to individual respondents and 20 groups consisting of 181 discussants, which comprised FGD team in this study. The study revealed that trapping, transportation, and preparation of rodents for food exposed the community to rodent and their fleas suggesting that plague may have occurred primarily by either flea bites or contact with infected wild rodents. The study also revealed that most people in communities consumed rodents as part of their regular diet; therefore, contact with small wild mammals was a common practice. The mode of transportation of freshly trapped rodents, in particular, carcasses risked human to flea bites. Questionnaire respondents (75%) and FGD discussants (55%) indicated that trappers preferred to carry rodent carcasses in small bags, whereas 55.8% and 20% respectively, reported hunters carrying carcasses in their pockets. Carrying of carcass skewers on trappers' shoulders was reported by 38.4% and 20% of individual respondents and FGD, respectively. All these activities were exposing humans to rodents and their fleas, the natural reservoirs and vectors of plague, respectively. This study also showed that there is a statistically significant (χ 2 = 4.6878, P < 0.05), between digging of rodents from their burrows and the presence of fleas on the hunter's bodies or clothes, which exposes humans to potentially flea bites in an enzootic cycle.

  14. Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

    2011-01-01

    We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

  15. Reality of Risk of Natural Disasters in Georgia and a Management Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaprindashvili, George; Tsereteli, Emil; Gobejishvili, Ramin; King, Lorenz; Gaprindashvili, Merab

    2013-04-01

    for tens of years. Moreover, the scientific research institutes of geography, geophysics at several universities and at the Georgian Academy of Sciences have accomplished other significant studies on natural hazards. In Georgia, an increased risk of catastrophes is caused by insufficient information between society and the authorities and persons responsible for mitigation. Urgent research tasks are the basic assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, the determination of their cause, and the development of special risk maps in GIS systems. This forms the base for developing a sustainable functioning monitoring and early warning system by the respective authorities.

  16. The Identification of Seniors at Risk screening tool is useful for predicting acute readmissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosted, Elizabeth; Schultz, Martin; Dynesen, Helle

    2014-01-01

    . Patients ≥ 65 years treated during a 14-day period were included. Their mean age was 78 years. Screening with the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) was performed (n = 198) by the Mobile Geriatric Team (MGT). The patients' medical journals were assessed retrospectively by the SG to determine any need...

  17. Identification and management of cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group (executive summary).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    With the objectives of clarifying the concepts related to "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome" and "risk stratification" and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group presents an executive summary of a detailed analysis and position paper that offers a comprehensive and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The above concepts overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. However, there is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider ethnicity-related risk factors in order to appropriately evaluate all individuals in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk assessment of natural disasters in the course of selection of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Weicheng; Ai Guigen

    1995-01-01

    Natural disasters are calamities which bring about enormous damage to human beings and their accommodations and equipment. Based on the research of disaster risk and example study of volcanism, we tried to carry out the risk assessment of natural disasters which potentially occur in the candidate area of nuclear waste disposal by three steps of analyses, defining the most frequent occurring area of disasters, determining the parameters of risk assessment and dividing the most dangerous site and risk grades

  19. Testing the impact on natural risks' awareness of visual communication through an exhibition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Mostert, Erik

    2014-05-01

    risk and demographics. In addition, the post-test included several satisfaction questions concerning the visual tools displayed in the exhibition. A statistical analysis of the changes between the pre- and post- tests allows to verify whether the exhibition has an impact on risk awareness or not. In order to deduce the attractiveness of each visual tool independently, the visitors' paths are tracked using RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technique, from which their time spent around certain visuals can be assessed. These results also help to analyze the changes in risk awareness measured by the pre-test/post-test design. Direct observation of visitors' reactions and behaviors completed the methodology. This research hence helps to assess which visual tools are more suitable to communicate such topics not only to a community as a whole, but also to its sub-categories (e.g. adults vs. children, people with experience of natural disasters vs. people without). Moreover, it provides methodological improvements concerning effectiveness research in the field of risk communication. The first results of this research will be presented and discussed.

  20. Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary

    2009-07-01

    Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO'S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months' worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient's age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient's postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy.

  1. Identification of occupational mortality risks for Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneale, G.W.; Mancuso, T.F.; Stewart, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Though most of the production work at Hanford is done by manual workers, 46% of the most dangerous jobs are performed by people who have professional or technical qualifications. For these privileged workers occupational mortality risks are positively correlated with radiation doses but for manual workers, who have relatively high death rates, there is an inverse relation with dose. The high ratio of professional to manual workers is clearly the reason for the industry having fewer observed than expected deaths and the inverse relation with dose for less privileged workers is probably a sign that there has been selective recruitment of the most highly paid manual workers-that is, skilled craftsmen into the more dangerous occupations. Evidence of this selective recruitment was obtained by equating danger levels with levels of monitoring for internal radiation. Therefore, there should be some control for these levels in any analysis of cancer effects of the measured dose of radiation. (author)

  2. Identification of high risk patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in a northern Greek population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karvounis Charalambos

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The percentage of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM patients who are in high risk for Sudden Death (SD constitutes only a minority of all HCM population but the incidence of SD in this subset is high (at least 5% annually. The identification of this small but important proportion of high risk HCM patients has been the clue in the clinical evaluation of these patients. Methods Our study cohort consisted from 123 patients with HCM who are currently followed up in our Institution. Five clinical risk factors were assessed: a family history of premature SD, unexplained syncope, Non Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia (NSVT on 24-h ECG monitoring, Abnormal Blood Pressure Response (ABPR during upright exercise testing and Maximum left ventricular Wall Thickness (MWT ≥30 mm. The purpose of our study was the identification of high risk HCM patients coming from Northern Greece. Results Fifteen patients (12.2% of the whole cohort had MWT ≥ 30 mm, 30 patients (24.4% had an ABPR to exercise, 17 patients (13.8% had episodes of NSVT in 24-h Holter monitoring, 17 patients (13.8% suffered from syncope, and 8 patients (6.5% had a positive family history of premature SD. Data analysis revealed that 74 patients (60.1% had none risk factor. Twenty four patients (19.5% had 1 risk factor, 17 patients (13.8% had 2 risk factors, 4 patients (3.25% had 3 risk factors, and 4 patients (3.25% had 4 risk factors, while none patient had 5 risk factors. Twenty five patients (20.3% had 2 or more risk factors. Conclusion This study for the first time confirms that, although a 60% of patients with HCM coming from a regional Greek population are in low risk for SD, a substantial proportion (almost 20% carries a high risk for SD justifying prophylactic therapy with amiodaron or ICD implantation.

  3. Identification of Natural Frequency of Low Rise Building on Soft Ground Profile using Ambient Vibration Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamarudin, A. F.; Zainal Abidin, M. H.; Mokhatar, S. N.; Daud, M. E.; Ibrahim, A.; Ibrahim, Z.; Noh, M. S. Md

    2018-04-01

    Natural frequency is the rate at which a body to vibrate or oscillate. Application of ambient vibration (AV) excitation is widely used nowadays as the input motion for building predominant frequency, fo, and ground fundamental frequency, Fo, prediction due to simple, fast, non-destructive, simple handling operation and reliable result. However, it must be emphasized and caution to isolate these frequencies (fo and Fo) from spurious frequencies of site-structure effects especially to low rise building on soft ground deposit. In this study, identification of fo and Fo by using AV measurements were performed on ground and 4-storey primary school reinforced concrete (RC) building at Sekolah Kebangsaan (SK) Sg. Tongkang, Rengit, Johor using 1 Hz of tri-axial seismometer sensor. Overlapping spectra between Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS) from and Horizontal to Vertical Spectra Ratio (HVSR) were used to distinguish respective frequencies of building and ground natural frequencies. Three dominant frequencies were identified from the FAS curves at 1.91 Hz, 1.98 Hz and 2.79 Hz in longitudinal (East West-EW), transverse (North South-NS) and vertical (UD) directions. It is expected the building has deformed in translational mode based on the first peak frequency by respective NS and EW components of FAS spectrum. Vertical frequency identified from the horizontal spectrums, might induces to the potential of rocking effect experienced by the school building. Meanwhile, single peak HVSR spectrum at low ground fundamental frequency concentrated at 0.93 Hz indicates to the existence deep contrast of soft deposit. Strong interaction between ground and building at similar frequency (0.93 Hz) observed from the FAS curves on the highest floor has shown the building to behave as a dependent unit against ground response as one rigid mass.

  4. Methods for automated identification of informative behaviors in natural bioptic driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Gang; Peli, Eli

    2012-06-01

    Visually impaired people may legally drive if wearing bioptic telescopes in some developed countries. To address the controversial safety issue of the practice, we have developed a low-cost in-car recording system that can be installed in study participants' own vehicles to record their daily driving activities. We also developed a set of automated identification techniques of informative behaviors to facilitate efficient manual review of important segments submerged in the vast amount of uncontrolled data. Here, we present the methods and quantitative results of the detection performance for six types of driving maneuvers and behaviors that are important for bioptic driving: bioptic telescope use, turns, curves, intersections, weaving, and rapid stops. The testing data were collected from one normally sighted and two visually impaired subjects across multiple days. The detection rates ranged from 82% up to 100%, and the false discovery rates ranged from 0% to 13%. In addition, two human observers were able to interpret about 80% of targets viewed through the telescope. These results indicate that with appropriate data processing the low-cost system is able to provide reliable data for natural bioptic driving studies.

  5. Identification of naturally processed hepatitis C virus-derived major histocompatibility complex class I ligands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benno Wölk

    Full Text Available Fine mapping of human cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL responses against hepatitis C virus (HCV is based on external loading of target cells with synthetic peptides which are either derived from prediction algorithms or from overlapping peptide libraries. These strategies do not address putative host and viral mechanisms which may alter processing as well as presentation of CTL epitopes. Therefore, the aim of this proof-of-concept study was to identify naturally processed HCV-derived major histocompatibility complex (MHC class I ligands. To this end, continuous human cell lines were engineered to inducibly express HCV proteins and to constitutively express high levels of functional HLA-A2. These cell lines were recognized in an HLA-A2-restricted manner by HCV-specific CTLs. Ligands eluted from HLA-A2 molecules isolated from large-scale cultures of these cell lines were separated by high performance liquid chromatography and further analyzed by electrospray ionization quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry (MS/tandem MS. These analyses allowed the identification of two HLA-A2-restricted epitopes derived from HCV nonstructural proteins (NS 3 and 5B (NS3₁₄₀₆₋₁₄₁₅ and NS5B₂₅₉₄₋₂₆₀₂. In conclusion, we describe a general strategy that may be useful to investigate HCV pathogenesis and may contribute to the development of preventive and therapeutic vaccines in the future.

  6. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  7. Risk management technique for liquefied natural gas facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.

    1975-01-01

    Checklists have been compiled for planning, design, construction, startup and debugging, and operation of liquefied natural gas facilities. Lists include references to pertinent safety regulations. Methods described are applicable to handling of other hazardous materials.

  8. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  9. Distribution and identification of sand flies naturally infected with Leishmania from the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorrilla, Victor; De Los Santos, Maxy B; Espada, Liz; Santos, Rocío Del Pilar; Fernandez, Roberto; Urquia, Albino; Stoops, Craig A; Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Lescano, Andres G; Vásquez, Gissella M; Valdivia, Hugo O

    2017-11-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important health problem in the New World affecting civilian and military populations that are frequently exposed in endemic settings. The Peruvian region of Madre de Dios located near the border with Brazil is one of the most endemic CL regions in South America with more than 4,451 reported cases between 2010 and 2015 according to the Peruvian epidemiology directorate. However, little is known regarding the diversity and distribution of sand fly vectors in this region. In this study, we aimed to characterize the sand fly fauna in this endemic setting and identify sand fly species naturally infected with Leishmania possibly involved in pathogen transmission. Sand fly collections were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in the communities of Flor de Acre, Villa Primavera, Mavila and Arca Pacahuara using CDC light traps and Shannon traps. Collected specimens were identified and non-blood-fed females were selected for Leishmania infection screening using kinetoplastid DNA-PCR (kDNA-PCR) and nested Real time PCR for species identification. A total of 10,897 phlebotomines belonging to the genus Lutzomyia (58 species) and Brumptomyia (2 species) were collected. Our study confirmed the widespread distribution and abundance of Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia) spp. (24%), Lu. whitmani (19.4%) and Lu. yucumensis (15.8%) in the region. Analysis of Shannon diversity index indicates variability in sand fly composition across sites with Villa Primavera presenting the highest sand fly diversity and abundance. Leishmania screening by kDNA-PCR resulted in 45 positive pools collected from Flor de Acre (34 pools), Mavila (10 pools) and Arca Pacahuara (1 pool) and included 14 species: Lu. yucumensis, Lu. aragoi, Lu. sallesi, Lu. sherlocki, Lu. shawi, Lu. walkeri, Lu nevesi, Lu. migonei, Lu. davisi, Lu. carrerai, Lu. hirsuta, Lu. (Trichophoromyia) spp., Lu. llanosmartinsi and Lu. whitmani. Lutzomyia sherlocki, Lu. walkeri and Lu. llanosmartinsi had the

  10. Distribution and identification of sand flies naturally infected with Leishmania from the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Zorrilla

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL is an important health problem in the New World affecting civilian and military populations that are frequently exposed in endemic settings. The Peruvian region of Madre de Dios located near the border with Brazil is one of the most endemic CL regions in South America with more than 4,451 reported cases between 2010 and 2015 according to the Peruvian epidemiology directorate. However, little is known regarding the diversity and distribution of sand fly vectors in this region. In this study, we aimed to characterize the sand fly fauna in this endemic setting and identify sand fly species naturally infected with Leishmania possibly involved in pathogen transmission.Sand fly collections were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in the communities of Flor de Acre, Villa Primavera, Mavila and Arca Pacahuara using CDC light traps and Shannon traps. Collected specimens were identified and non-blood-fed females were selected for Leishmania infection screening using kinetoplastid DNA-PCR (kDNA-PCR and nested Real time PCR for species identification.A total of 10,897 phlebotomines belonging to the genus Lutzomyia (58 species and Brumptomyia (2 species were collected. Our study confirmed the widespread distribution and abundance of Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia spp. (24%, Lu. whitmani (19.4% and Lu. yucumensis (15.8% in the region. Analysis of Shannon diversity index indicates variability in sand fly composition across sites with Villa Primavera presenting the highest sand fly diversity and abundance. Leishmania screening by kDNA-PCR resulted in 45 positive pools collected from Flor de Acre (34 pools, Mavila (10 pools and Arca Pacahuara (1 pool and included 14 species: Lu. yucumensis, Lu. aragoi, Lu. sallesi, Lu. sherlocki, Lu. shawi, Lu. walkeri, Lu nevesi, Lu. migonei, Lu. davisi, Lu. carrerai, Lu. hirsuta, Lu. (Trichophoromyia spp., Lu. llanosmartinsi and Lu. whitmani. Lutzomyia sherlocki, Lu. walkeri and Lu. llanosmartinsi had the

  11. Distribution and identification of sand flies naturally infected with Leishmania from the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorrilla, Victor; De Los Santos, Maxy B.; Espada, Liz; Santos, Rocío del Pilar; Fernandez, Roberto; Urquia, Albino; Stoops, Craig A.; Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Lescano, Andres G.; Vásquez, Gissella M.; Valdivia, Hugo O.

    2017-01-01

    Background Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important health problem in the New World affecting civilian and military populations that are frequently exposed in endemic settings. The Peruvian region of Madre de Dios located near the border with Brazil is one of the most endemic CL regions in South America with more than 4,451 reported cases between 2010 and 2015 according to the Peruvian epidemiology directorate. However, little is known regarding the diversity and distribution of sand fly vectors in this region. In this study, we aimed to characterize the sand fly fauna in this endemic setting and identify sand fly species naturally infected with Leishmania possibly involved in pathogen transmission. Methods Sand fly collections were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in the communities of Flor de Acre, Villa Primavera, Mavila and Arca Pacahuara using CDC light traps and Shannon traps. Collected specimens were identified and non-blood-fed females were selected for Leishmania infection screening using kinetoplastid DNA-PCR (kDNA-PCR) and nested Real time PCR for species identification. Results A total of 10,897 phlebotomines belonging to the genus Lutzomyia (58 species) and Brumptomyia (2 species) were collected. Our study confirmed the widespread distribution and abundance of Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia) spp. (24%), Lu. whitmani (19.4%) and Lu. yucumensis (15.8%) in the region. Analysis of Shannon diversity index indicates variability in sand fly composition across sites with Villa Primavera presenting the highest sand fly diversity and abundance. Leishmania screening by kDNA-PCR resulted in 45 positive pools collected from Flor de Acre (34 pools), Mavila (10 pools) and Arca Pacahuara (1 pool) and included 14 species: Lu. yucumensis, Lu. aragoi, Lu. sallesi, Lu. sherlocki, Lu. shawi, Lu. walkeri, Lu nevesi, Lu. migonei, Lu. davisi, Lu. carrerai, Lu. hirsuta, Lu. (Trichophoromyia) spp., Lu. llanosmartinsi and Lu. whitmani. Lutzomyia sherlocki, Lu. walkeri and Lu

  12. Molecular identification and histopathological study of natural Streptococcus agalactiae infection in hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laith, A A; Ambak, Mohd Azmi; Hassan, Marina; Sheriff, Shahreza Md; Nadirah, Musa; Draman, Ahmad Shuhaimi; Wahab, Wahidah; Ibrahim, Wan Nurhafizah Wan; Aznan, Alia Syafiqah; Jabar, Amina; Najiah, Musa

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to emphasize on histopathological examinations and molecular identification of Streptococcus agalactiae isolated from natural infections in hybrid tilapia ( Oreochromis niloticus ) in Temerloh Pahang, Malaysia, as well as to determine the susceptibility of the pathogen strains to various currently available antimicrobial agents. The diseased fishes were observed for variable clinical signs including fin hemorrhages, alterations in behavior associated with erratic swimming, exophthalmia, and mortality. Tissue samples from the eyes, brain, kidney, liver, and spleen were taken for bacterial isolation. Identification of S. agalactiae was screened by biochemical methods and confirmed by VITEK 2 and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The antibiogram profiling of the isolate was tested against 18 standard antibiotics included nitrofurantoin, flumequine, florfenicol, amoxylin, doxycycline, oleandomycin, tetracycline, ampicillin, lincomycin, colistin sulfate, oxolinic acid, novobiocin, spiramycin, erythromycin, fosfomycin, neomycin, gentamycin, and polymyxin B. The histopathological analysis of eyes, brain, liver, kidney, and spleen was observed for abnormalities related to S. agalactiae infection. The suspected colonies of S. agalactiae identified by biochemical methods was observed as Gram-positive chained cocci, β-hemolytic, and non-motile. The isolate was confirmed as S. agalactiae by VITEK 2 (99% similarity), reconfirmed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing (99% similarity) and deposited in GenBank with accession no. KT869025. The isolate was observed to be resistance to neomycin and gentamicin. The most consistent gross findings were marked hemorrhages, erosions of caudal fin, and exophthalmos. Microscopic examination confirmed the presence of marked congestion and infiltration of inflammatory cell in the eye, brain, kidney, liver, and spleen. Eye samples showed damage of the lens capsule, hyperemic and hemorrhagic choroid tissue, and retina

  13. Molecular identification and histopathological study of natural Streptococcus agalactiae infection in hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laith Abdul Razzak

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The main objective of this study was to emphasize on histopathological examinations and molecular identification of Streptococcus agalactiae isolated from natural infections in hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus in Temerloh Pahang, Malaysia, as well as to determine the susceptibility of the pathogen strains to various currently available antimicrobial agents. Materials and Methods: The diseased fishes were observed for variable clinical signs including fin hemorrhages, alterations in behavior associated with erratic swimming, exophthalmia, and mortality. Tissue samples from the eyes, brain, kidney, liver, and spleen were taken for bacterial isolation. Identification of S. agalactiae was screened by biochemical methods and confirmed by VITEK 2 and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The antibiogram profiling of the isolate was tested against 18 standard antibiotics included nitrofurantoin, flumequine, florfenicol, amoxylin, doxycycline, oleandomycin, tetracycline, ampicillin, lincomycin, colistin sulfate, oxolinic acid, novobiocin, spiramycin, erythromycin, fosfomycin, neomycin, gentamycin, and polymyxin B. The histopathological analysis of eyes, brain, liver, kidney, and spleen was observed for abnormalities related to S. agalactiae infection. Results: The suspected colonies of S. agalactiae identified by biochemical methods was observed as Gram-positive chained cocci, β-hemolytic, and non-motile. The isolate was confirmed as S. agalactiae by VITEK 2 (99% similarity, reconfirmed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing (99% similarity and deposited in GenBank with accession no. KT869025. The isolate was observed to be resistance to neomycin and gentamicin. The most consistent gross findings were marked hemorrhages, erosions of caudal fin, and exophthalmos. Microscopic examination confirmed the presence of marked congestion and infiltration of inflammatory cell in the eye, brain, kidney, liver, and spleen. Eye samples showed damage of the lens capsule

  14. Credit risk in liberalised power and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapson, E.; Hunter, Richard

    1999-01-01

    This chapter examines the relationship of market structure and price volatility to credit risk, and discusses credit risk and energy market structures, credit risk in bilateral contracts, market evolution, and the effect of liberalising power markets on credit quality considering the power liberalising in Europe, the pace of change, and the new risks and opportunities. The market structure in Europe is addressed, and the EU Directive 96/92/EC, structural requirements, access for new generation capacity, and transmission costs are considered. Details of the liberalisation in the UK electricity market, the German market, and the Nord Pool are given, and the best credit practices in bilateral markets, and the quantifying of expected credit loss are described. Panels highlighting the need to know your counterparty in evaluating and negotiating bilateral contracts, and lessons learnt from the June 1998 US power price spike are presented

  15. [Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

    2016-12-01

    According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

  16. The affect heuristic, mortality salience, and risk: domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Västfjäll, Daniel; Peters, Ellen; Slovic, Paul

    2014-12-01

    We examine how affect and accessible thoughts following a major natural disaster influence everyday risk perception. A survey was conducted in the months following the 2004 south Asian Tsunami in a representative sample of the Swedish population (N = 733). Respondents rated their experienced affect as well as the perceived risk and benefits of various everyday decision domains. Affect influenced risk and benefit perception in a way that could be predicted from both the affect-congruency and affect heuristic literatures (increased risk perception and stronger risk-benefit correlations). However, in some decision domains, self-regulation goals primed by the natural disaster predicted risk and benefit ratings. Together, these results show that affect, accessible thoughts and motivational states influence perceptions of risks and benefits. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  18. Identification of Patient Safety Risks Associated with Electronic Health Records: A Software Quality Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginio, Luiz A; Ricarte, Ivan Luiz Marques

    2015-01-01

    Although Electronic Health Records (EHR) can offer benefits to the health care process, there is a growing body of evidence that these systems can also incur risks to patient safety when developed or used improperly. This work is a literature review to identify these risks from a software quality perspective. Therefore, the risks were classified based on the ISO/IEC 25010 software quality model. The risks identified were related mainly to the characteristics of "functional suitability" (i.e., software bugs) and "usability" (i.e., interface prone to user error). This work elucidates the fact that EHR quality problems can adversely affect patient safety, resulting in errors such as incorrect patient identification, incorrect calculation of medication dosages, and lack of access to patient data. Therefore, the risks presented here provide the basis for developers and EHR regulating bodies to pay attention to the quality aspects of these systems that can result in patient harm.

  19. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  20. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falakh, Fajrul; Setiani, Onny

    2018-02-01

    Water Treatment Plant (WTP) is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

  2. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falakh Fajrul

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Water Treatment Plant (WTP is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

  3. Understanding the nature of nuclear power plant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R. S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of understanding of severe accident consequences from the non-mechanistic assumptions of WASH-740 to WASH-1400, NUREG-1150, SOARCA and today in the interpretation of the consequences of the accident at Fukushima. As opposed to the general perception, the radiological human health consequences to members of the Japanese public from the Fukushima accident will be small despite meltdowns at three reactors and loss of containment integrity. In contrast, the radiation-related societal impacts present a substantial additional economic burden on top of the monumental task of economic recovery from the nonnuclear aspects of the earthquake and tsunami damage. The Fukushima accident provides additional evidence that we have mis-characterized the risk of nuclear power plant accidents to ourselves and to the public. The human health risks are extremely small even to people living next door to a nuclear power plant. The principal risk associated with a nuclear power plant accident involves societal impacts: relocation of people, loss of land use, loss of contaminated products, decontamination costs and the need for replacement power. Although two of the three probabilistic safety goals of the NRC address societal risk, the associated quantitative health objectives in reality only address individual human health risk. This paper describes the types of analysis that would address compliance with the societal goals. (authors)

  4. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

  5. Management of natural hazard risk in Cartago, Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montoya, L.; Masser, Ian

    Cities are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters due to the concentration of population,buildi ngs and infrastructure. With urbanisation on the rise,parti cularly in developing countries, the incorporation of disaster management is high on urban agendas as the losses from a single event can

  6. Risk-taking in disorders of natural and drug rewards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voon, Valerie; Morris, Laurel S; Irvine, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    greater risk-taking, similar to substance-use disorders. Methamphetamine-dependent subjects had greater nonlinearity of probability weighting along with impaired subjective discrimination of probability and reward magnitude. Ex-smokers also had lower risk-taking to rewards compared with non......-smokers. In the anticipation of losses, obesity without binge eating had a similar pattern to other substance-use disorders. Obese subjects with binge eating also have impaired discrimination of subjective value similar to that of the methamphetamine-dependent subjects. Nonlinearity of probability weighting was associated...

  7. Influence of the definition of acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery on incidence, patient identification, and identification of risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyez, Luc

    2011-03-01

    Acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery (RF) is a major complication and is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Early recognition and identification of risk factors for RF is therefore important. However, several definitions of RF are used. The intention of this study is to evaluate if the used definitions influence the incidence and the identification of risk factors for RF. We identified, after exclusion of 13 patients with preoperative dialysis, 995 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery at the UMC St. Radboud Medical Center between January 2009 and 15 February 2010 as our study cohort. Apart from the definition used by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons, we selected five major international studies concerning RF, each using a different RF definition. These six definitions were used to evaluate the incidence of and identification of risk factors for RF in our study cohort. There is not only a statistically significant difference in incidence (range 4.94-38.1%) of RF between the definitions (p definition several common but also several different risk variables. Multivariate analysis identified also different independent predictors, with different odds ratios for RF for each definition. This study shows that the used definition of RF influences not only the incidence of RF, but also patient identification and the identification of risk variables. Copyright © 2010 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

  9. Essays on risk management of natural resources in developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salazar Espinoza, César Antonio

    choice is sensitive to past weather shocks, and reallocation seems temporary. This is consistent with a self-insurance approach and buffer stock arguments. The third chapter employs rural household data of rice producers from Vietnam to examine the risk effect of pesticide use. Results reveal that higher...

  10. Risk Management of the Natural Gas Consumption using Genetic Algorithms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pelikán, Emil; Šimůnek, Milan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2005), s. 425-436 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : forecasting * risk-management * energy consumption Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  11. Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, R.S.P.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Melenberg, B.

    2011-01-01

    Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge

  12. A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neisa Angelica

    2010-04-01

    potential invasion of privacy if the data is disclosed, and the motives and capacity of the data recipient to re-identify the data. Conclusion The models we developed can be used to manage the re-identification risk from small geographic areas. Being able to choose among three possible thresholds, a data custodian can adjust the definition of "small geographic area" to the nature of the data and recipient.

  13. Natural and anthropogeneous radiation in the Erzgebirge: Risk factor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobi, W.

    1992-01-01

    The geological formations in the saxoinian-thuringian low mountain range contain rocks with a relatively high share of uranium ( 238 U) and its follow-up product radium ( 226 Ra). Independent of mining this results in increased radiation levels to which the local population has always been exposed. Natural radiation levels may, of course, vary strongly from one location to the next and therefore human exposure varies accordingly. (orig.) [de

  14. Hazard identification and risk assessment for biologics targeting the immune system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Andrea B

    2008-01-01

    Biologic pharmaceuticals include a variety of products, such as monoclonal antibodies, fusion proteins and cytokines. Products in those classes include immunomodulatory biologics, which are intended to enhance or diminish the activity of the immune system. Immunomodulatory biologics have been approved by the U.S. FDA for a variety of indications, including cancer and inflammatory conditions. Prior to gaining approval for marketing, sponsoring companies for all types of products must demonstrate a product's safety in toxicology studies conducted in animals and show safety and efficacy in clinical trials conducted in patients. The overall goal of toxicology studies, which applies to immunomodulatory and other product types, is to identify the hazards that products pose to humans. Because biologics are generally highly selective for specific targets (receptors/epitopes), conducting toxicology studies in animal models with the target is essential. Such animals are referred to as pharmacologically relevant. Endpoints routinely included in toxicology studies, such as hematology, organ weight and histopathology, can be used to assess the effect of a product on the structure of the immune system. Additionally, specialized endpoints, such as immunophenotyping and immune function tests, can be used to define effects of immunomodulatory products on the immune system. Following hazard identification, risks posed to patients are assessed and managed. Risks can be managed through clinical trial design and risk communication, a practice that applies to immunomodulatory and other product types. Examples of risk management in clinical trial design include establishing a safe starting dose, defining the appropriate patient population and establishing appropriate patient monitoring. Risk communication starts during clinical trials and continues after product approval. A combination of hazard identification, risk assessment and risk management allows for drug development to proceed

  15. Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or lightning are a major threat to industry. In particular, chemical plants, storage facilities, pipelines, and offshore oil and gas facilities are vulnerable to natural events which can cause hazardous materials releases and thereby endanger workers, the population and the environment. These technological accidents are commonly referred to as Natech accidents. Recent events have increased concerns about safety in the offshore oil and gas sector, and the need for improving knowledge on the matter has become evident. With those premises, we analyzed accidents, near misses and accident precursors at offshore facilities in Europe caused by natural events using both a statistical and a qualitative approach. For this purpose, we screened the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD) to identify all incidents that featured natural events as causes or aggravating factors. A dataset of 1,085 global Natech events was built for the statistical analysis. Among those, a subset composed of 303 European records was selected. The results of the analysis showed that offshore Natech events in Europe are frequent; they resulted, however, in low consequences. The main threat to offshore facilities resulted from bad weather, such as strong winds and heavy seas. Storms can put intense loads on the structural parts of offshore installations, eventually exceeding design resistance specifications. Several incidents triggered by lightning strikes and earthquakes were also recorded. Substantial differences in terms of vulnerability, damage modality and consequences emerged between fixed and floating offshore structures. The main damage mode for floating structures was the failure of station keeping systems due to the rupture of mooring or anchors, mainly caused by adverse meteorological conditions. Most of the incidents at fixed offshore structures in Europe involved falling loads for both metal jacket and concrete base platforms due to storms. In

  16. Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2017-07-01

    The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  17. THE SOCIAL PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARDS RISK: PORTUGAL AND TUVALU

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Rudge Ramos Ribeiro; Celeste Oliveira Alves Coelho

    2012-01-01

    Los efectos del cambio climático y del nivel del mar deben causar graves problemas para los habitantes de algunas pequeñas islas como Tuvalu en el futuro. Como resultado de una combinación de procesos naturales y acción antropogénica, el cambio del nivel del mar genera un impacto diferente. Esta investigación aborda la percepción del riesgo natural y del cambio climático en Portugal y Tuvalu. La percepción de algunos riesgos naturales, como la subida del nivel del mar, puede ser distinta para...

  18. The identification and nature of bound exciton I-line PL systems in ZnO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, K. [PH Dept, CERN, 1211-Geneva (Switzerland); Cullen, J.; Henry, M. O.; McGlynn, Enda [School of Physics Sciences, Dublin City University, Dublin 9 (Ireland); Khawaga, Rehab I. [Department of Chemistry, College of Art and Science, American University of Sharjah (AUS) (United Arab Emirates)

    2013-12-04

    The chemical identification of donor bound excitons in ZnO has been studied using radioactive ions. Implantations of {sup 117}Ag - which decays to radioactive Cd and In - have enabled the identification of the I{sub 2} optical feature as being the ionized donor counterpart of I{sub 9}, one of the most prominent optical features in the photoluminescence spectrum of ZnO. Both of these lines are consistent with In occupying a Zn site.

  19. Processing of Natural Signals like EMG for Person Identification using NUFB-GMM

    OpenAIRE

    Suresh M; P G Krishnamohan; Mallikarjun S Holi

    2014-01-01

    Physiological signals like Electrocardiogram(ECG) and Electroencephalogram(EEG), including deoxyribonucleic acid(DNA) are person specific and distinct for different persons. The motor unit firing pattern, motor unit recruitment order and characteristics of muscle changing from person to person, and therefore Electromyogram (EMG) can be used for person identification. EMG records obtained from a single channel data acquisition system are used to develop person identification system. Non-unifor...

  20. The Ruprechtov natural analogue site (Cz) study: mobile natural organic matter identification, characterisation and link to PA relevant processes - 16341

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havlova, Vaclava; Cervinka, Radek; Noseck, Ulrich; Brasser, Thomas; Havel, Josef

    2009-01-01

    The Ruprechtov Natural Analogue (CZ) Programme has been focused on studying real system processes, relevant to performance assessment (PA) of sediment formations that can form the overburden of geological repository host rocks. The site has been extensively studied due to its geological constitution (granite - kaolin - clay - U mineralisation - organic matter). The presented study used Ruprechtov unique but well-described geological conditions in order to identify and characterise mobile organic matter (MOM) that can be easily released into groundwater and can influence PA relevant specie migration due to complexation/sorption reaction. The modem analytical method MALDI-TOF MS was used for characterisation. It was found that only a small fraction of sedimentary natural organic matter (NOM) from the site was easily releasable (max. 5%) as MOM, resulting in low organic substance concentration in natural groundwater. MOM amount released was decreasing with increasing NOM content. MALDI-TOF MS proved to be a useful tool to characterize organic substances, either natural ones or artificially released from natural organic matter samples. A noticeable fingerprint for all the MOM compounds analysed was found at MALDITOF MS spectra. This showed that MOM from the Ruprechtov site was in all cases composed of molecules with low molecular weight (under 1000 Da). As determined by the consequent geochemical analyses, despite groundwater reducing conditions MOM compounds would be mainly interacting with U(VI) in the groundwater, being present as more abundant U specie. Good correspondence of results enabled to consider the extracted humic acid HA 12/3 as a mobile organic matter fraction representative. (authors)

  1. Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2018-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

  2. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Stonelake

    2015-09-01

    Conclusions: In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient.

  3. Laser Scanning Systems and Techniques in Rockfall Source Identification and Risk Assessment: A Critical Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanos, Ali Mutar; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2018-04-01

    Rockfall poses risk to people, their properties and to transportation ways in mountainous and hilly regions. This catastrophe shows various characteristics such as vast distribution, sudden occurrence, variable magnitude, strong fatalness and randomicity. Therefore, prediction of rockfall phenomenon both spatially and temporally is a challenging task. Digital Terrain model (DTM) is one of the most significant elements in rockfall source identification and risk assessment. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is the most advanced effective technique to derive high-resolution and accurate DTM. This paper presents a critical overview of rockfall phenomenon (definition, triggering factors, motion modes and modeling) and LiDAR technique in terms of data pre-processing, DTM generation and the factors that can be obtained from this technique for rockfall source identification and risk assessment. It also reviews the existing methods that are utilized for the evaluation of the rockfall trajectories and their characteristics (frequency, velocity, bouncing height and kinetic energy), probability, susceptibility, hazard and risk. Detail consideration is given on quantitative methodologies in addition to the qualitative ones. Various methods are demonstrated with respect to their application scales (local and regional). Additionally, attention is given to the latest improvement, particularly including the consideration of the intensity of the phenomena and the magnitude of the events at chosen sites.

  4. Identification of At-Risk Youth by Suicide Screening in a Pediatric Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Elizabeth D; Cwik, Mary; Van Eck, Kathryn; Goldstein, Mitchell; Alfes, Clarissa; Wilson, Mary Ellen; Virden, Jane M; Horowitz, Lisa M; Wilcox, Holly C

    2017-02-01

    The pediatric emergency department (ED) is a critical location for the identification of children and adolescents at risk for suicide. Screening instruments that can be easily incorporated into clinical practice in EDs to identify and intervene with patients at increased suicide risk is a promising suicide prevention strategy and patient safety objective. This study is a retrospective review of the implementation of a brief suicide screen for pediatric psychiatric ED patients as standard of care. The Ask Suicide Screening Questions (ASQ) was implemented in an urban pediatric ED for patients with psychiatric presenting complaints. Nursing compliance rates, identification of at-risk patients, and sensitivity for repeated ED visits were evaluated using medical records from 970 patients. The ASQ was implemented with a compliance rate of 79 %. Fifty-three percent of the patients who screened positive (237/448) did not present to the ED with suicide-related complaints. These identified patients were more likely to be male, African American, and have externalizing behavior diagnoses. The ASQ demonstrated a sensitivity of 93 % and specificity of 43 % to predict return ED visits with suicide-related presenting complaints within 6 months of the index visit. Brief suicide screening instruments can be incorporated into standard of care in pediatric ED settings. Such screens can identify patients who do not directly report suicide-related presenting complaints at triage and who may be at particular risk for future suicidal behavior. Results have the potential to inform suicide prevention strategies in pediatric EDs.

  5. Screening Protocol for Early Identification of Brazilian Children at Risk for Dyslexia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giseli D. Germano

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Early identification of students at risk of dyslexia has been an educational challenge in the past years. This research had two main goals. First, we aimed to develop a screening protocol for early identification of Brazilian children at risk for dyslexia; second, we aimed to identify the predictive variables of this protocol using Principal Component Analysis. The major step involved in developing this protocol was the selection of variables, which were chosen based on the literature review and linguistic criteria. The screening protocol was composed of seven cognitive-linguistic skills: Letter naming; Phonological Awareness (which comprises the following subtests: Rhyme production, Rhyme identification, Syllabic segmentation, Production of words from a given phoneme, Phonemic Synthesis, and Phonemic analysis; Phonological Working memory, Rapid naming Speed; Silent reading; Reading of words and non-words; and Auditory Comprehension of sentences from pictures. A total of 149 children, aged from 6 years to 6 and 11, of both genders who were enrolled in the 1st grade of elementary public schools were submitted to the screening protocol. Principal Component Analysis revealed four factors, accounting for 64.45% of the variance of the Protocol variables: first factor (“pre-reading”, second factor (“decoding”, third factor (“Reading”, and fourth factor “Auditory processing.” The factors found corroborate those reported in the National and International literature and have been described as early signs of dyslexia and reading problems.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees: Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C.; Silliman, S.

    2012-02-01

    Wellhead protection is of critical importance for managing groundwater resources. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for addressing wellhead protection in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health of the receiving population are limited. It is herein suggested that probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) provides a structure whereby chemical transport can be combined with uncertainties in source, chemistry, and health impact to assess the probability of negative health outcomes in the population. As such, PRA-FT provides a new strategy for the identification of areas of probabilistically high human health risk. Application of this approach is demonstrated through a simplified case study involving flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer with heterogeneity in aquifer properties and contaminant sources.

  7. Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Kemal Özfirat

    2017-09-27

    Sep 27, 2017 ... Different types of accidents may occur in natural stone facilities during movement, dimensioning, cutting ... are numerous risk analysis methods such as preliminary ..... machine type and maintenance (MM) event, block control.

  8. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

  9. What are the benefits and risks of fitting patients with radiofrequency identification devices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Levine

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2004, the United States Food and Drug Administration approved a radiofrequency identification (RFID device that is implanted under the skin of the upper arm of patients and that stores the patient's medical identifier. When a scanner is passed over the device, the identifier is displayed on the screen of an RFID reader. An authorized health professional can then use the identifier to access the patient's clinical information, which is stored in a separate, secure database. Such RFID devices may have many medical benefits--such as expediting identification of patients and retrieval of their medical records. But critics of the technology have raised several concerns, including the risk of the patient's identifying information being used for nonmedical purposes.

  10. What are the benefits and risks of fitting patients with radiofrequency identification devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Mark; Adida, Ben; Mandl, Kenneth; Kohane, Isaac; Halamka, John

    2007-11-27

    In 2004, the United States Food and Drug Administration approved a radiofrequency identification (RFID) device that is implanted under the skin of the upper arm of patients and that stores the patient's medical identifier. When a scanner is passed over the device, the identifier is displayed on the screen of an RFID reader. An authorized health professional can then use the identifier to access the patient's clinical information, which is stored in a separate, secure database. Such RFID devices may have many medical benefits--such as expediting identification of patients and retrieval of their medical records. But critics of the technology have raised several concerns, including the risk of the patient's identifying information being used for nonmedical purposes.

  11. THE SOCIAL PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARDS RISK: PORTUGAL AND TUVALU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Rudge Ramos Ribeiro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los efectos del cambio climático y del nivel del mar deben causar graves problemas para los habitantes de algunas pequeñas islas como Tuvalu en el futuro. Como resultado de una combinación de procesos naturales y acción antropogénica, el cambio del nivel del mar genera un impacto diferente. Esta investigación aborda la percepción del riesgo natural y del cambio climático en Portugal y Tuvalu. La percepción de algunos riesgos naturales, como la subida del nivel del mar, puede ser distinta para cada sitio. La percepción de los cambios climáticos en Tuvalu es poco conocida por la comunidad académica de la Universidad de Aveiro, y creen que los impactos del aumento del nivel del mar para Portugal y Tuvalu no son los mismos. La distancia geográfica tiene una influencia en la percepción del riesgo, a mayor distancia se le da una menor atención.

  12. The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Miccadei

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

  13. Improving Early Identification and Intervention for Children at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotholz, David A; Kinsman, Anne M; Lacy, Kathi K; Charles, Jane

    2017-02-01

    To provide an example of a successful, novel statewide effort to increase early identification of young children at risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using a 2-tiered screening process with enhanced quality assessment, interagency policy collaboration and coordination. The South Carolina Act Early Team (SCAET) provided focused collaboration among leaders representing state agencies, universities, health care systems, private organizations, and families to improve quality of life for children with ASD. Specific focus was on implementing policy changes and training to result in earlier identification and home-based behavioral intervention for young children at risk for ASD. Policy changes, training, and modified state agency practices were accomplished. Presumptive eligibility, on the basis of a 2-tiered screening process was implemented by BabyNet (South Carolina's Early Intervention Program) in collaboration with the lead agency for developmental disability services. There was a fivefold increase in children eligible for early intensive behavioral intervention without waiting for a diagnosis of ASD, avoiding long waits for diagnostic evaluations. Only 16 children (2.5%) were later found not to have ASD from a comprehensive evaluation. Improvements in early identification and intervention are feasible through collaborative policy change. The South Carolina Act Early Team and its key stakeholders committed to improving outcomes for this population used existing tools and methods in new ways to improve early identification of children with ASD and to make available evidence-based intervention services. This example should be replicable in other states with key stakeholders working collaboratively for the benefit of young children with ASD. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  14. Radon risk and natural radioactivity of Ziar Basin territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urminska, J.; Khun, M.; Jurkovic, L.

    1999-01-01

    Radon is one of the most important detection elements for assessing the environmental conditions, e.g.in conurbations. The radon radiation waters, and rocks on the Ziar Basin territory [Central Slovakia] was fully studied. Potential risk areas can be found in the vicinity of tectonic faults (verified and supposed). An excess of over 11% of the radon limit concentration was detected in the environment of some buildings. But in terms of high radioactivity Basin region, the dominant position is kept by the rhyolites, rhyodacites and their pyroclastic rocks. Higher values for the 222 Rn volume activity were identified for the samples of waters in rhyolite and granodiorite bodies situated in the tectonic lines of the NE - SW direction. During its transfer through living material the ionizing radiation causes ionization and produces changes in its structure and composition at the same time. This results along with heavy metals in cell death, damage to genetic material, and an increase in the incidence of malignant tumors of the digestation system and lymph-nodes, leukaemia and cancer of the lung. Since 1990, the localities under investigation have shown a higher sickness rate (congenital evolution defects, tumor diseases) when compared to the all-Slovak average

  15. Press freedom, oil exports, and risk for natural disasters: a challenge for climato-economic theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arantes, Joana; Grace, Randolph C; Kemp, Simon

    2013-10-01

    Does the interaction between climactic demands, monetary resources, and freedom suggest a more general relationship between the environmental challenges that human societies face and their resources to meet those challenges? Using data on press freedom (Van de Vliert 2011a), we found no evidence of a similar interaction with natural resources (as measured by oil exports) or risk for natural disasters.

  16. A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Sela, Erika; Blaha, Ludek; Braunbeck, Thomas; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; García-Franco, Mauricio; Guinea, Joaquin; Klüver, Nils; Schirmer, Kristin; Tanneberger, Katrin; Tobor-Kapłon, Marysia; Witters, Hilda; Belanger, Scott; Benfenati, Emilio; Creton, Stuart; Cronin, Mark T D; Eggen, Rik I L; Embry, Michelle; Ekman, Drew; Gourmelon, Anne; Halder, Marlies; Hardy, Barry; Hartung, Thomas; Hubesch, Bruno; Jungmann, Dirk; Lampi, Mark A; Lee, Lucy; Léonard, Marc; Küster, Eberhard; Lillicrap, Adam; Luckenbach, Till; Murk, Albertinka J; Navas, José M; Peijnenburg, Willie; Repetto, Guillermo; Salinas, Edward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Spielmann, Horst; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Walter-Rohde, Susanne; Whale, Graham; Wheeler, James R; Winter, Matthew J

    2013-12-01

    Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Influence of the definition of acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery on incidence, patient identification, and identification of risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noyez, L.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Acute renal failure post-cardiac surgery (RF) is a major complication and is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Early recognition and identification of risk factors for RF is therefore important. However, several definitions of RF are used. The intention of

  18. Natural Disaster Risk and Engagement in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is beset with natural hazards no less than other regions of Earth, but there are some special aspects that require attention. The presence of ice leads to spring river flooding and dynamics of coastal erosion not present in warmer climates. Vast boreal forests are subject to wildfires that are huge pollution events and a positive feedback to climate change through production of CO2, other gases, and black carbon. Darkness and extreme cold that prevail for a significant portion of the year is a challenge to disaster response. Special societal aspects of the Arctic produce vulnerabilities on two scales. One is the development of infrastructure in support of growing extractive industries and Arctic shipping. Reliance on such facilities, which often lack redundancy, and on long supply lines for food and fuel from the south impedes resilience. In 1964, Alaska lost much of its infrastructure to the 9.2 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. Today, Alaska has greater dependency on external supplies and less internal redundancy. Planning that affects vulnerability of infrastructure is often done by corporations and regulated by government agencies based outside the Arctic. The work of scientists who understood Alaska, both within and outside government, provided information to energy corporations persuading them to include expensive design measures into the Trans Alaska Pipeline for crossing an active fault and preventing thawing of permafrost. This is a success story that should not be forgotten. At the other end of the size scale are isolated off-grid and off-road remote communities with fragile power, water, and sanitation facilities. A disaster there can pose an immediate threat to health and even life. Long-term evacuation and the cost a reconstruction may mean that the community is never re-established. Where such communities are centers of indigneous culture, the culture is threatened. With the goal of identifying best practices with these

  19. Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2016-02-01

    Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

  20. Identification of seismically risk-sensitive systems and components in nuclear power plants: feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.; Boccio, J.; Farahzad, P.

    1983-06-01

    An approach for the identification of risk-sensitive components in a nuclear power plant during and after a seismic event is described. Application of the methodology to two hypothetical power plants - a Boiling Water Reactor and a Pressurized Water Reactor - are presented and the results are given in tabular and graphical form. Conclusions drawn and lessons learned through the course of this study, based on the relative importance of various accident scenarios and sensitivity analyses, are discussed. In addition, the areas that may need further investigation are identified

  1. Health risk assessment linked with purified biogas injection in a natural gas distribution system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Evanno, Sebastien

    2009-06-01

    This document provides for the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Afsset) expressed after the collective expertise carried out for the evaluation of the health risk linked with biogas injection in the natural gas distribution system. Following the recommendations issued by the Afsset, works have been started in order to collect the sludge-derived biogas and to analyse its composition. These data will be used to assess accidental risks (resulting from biogas valorisation, pipeline transport, industrial and domestic energy valorisation) as well as health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas distribution system)

  2. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  4. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

  5. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

  6. [Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

    2008-01-01

    Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

  7. The prevalence and nature of sexual harassment in the workplace: A model for early identification and effective management thereof

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Ramsaroop

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the prevalence and nature of sexual harassment and, assesses the impact of supervisory relations, levels of interaction, appearance and personality and types of behaviour. The study was undertaken at a tertiary institution using a sample of 74 employees, drawn by means of simple random sampling. Data was collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which was statistically tested and, analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results indicate that the sub-dimensions of the study impact significantly on sexual harassment. Based on the findings, a model for early identification and effective management of sexual harassment in the workplace was generated.

  8. Modelling characteristics to predict Legionella contamination risk - Surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems and identification of risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völker, Sebastian; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    For the surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems (DWPS) and the identification of risk factors, there is a need for an early estimation of the risk of Legionella contamination within a building, using efficient and assessable parameters to estimate hazards and to prioritize risks. The precision, accuracy and effectiveness of ways of estimating the risk of higher Legionella numbers (temperature, stagnation, pipe materials, etc.) have only rarely been empirically assessed in practice, although there is a broad consensus about the impact of these risk factors. We collected n = 807 drinking water samples from 9 buildings which had had Legionella spp. occurrences of >100 CFU/100mL within the last 12 months, and tested for Legionella spp., L. pneumophila, HPC 20°C and 36°C (culture-based). Each building was sampled for 6 months under standard operating conditions in the DWPS. We discovered high variability (up to 4 log(10) steps) in the presence of Legionella spp. (CFU/100 mL) within all buildings over a half year period as well as over the course of a day. Occurrences were significantly correlated with temperature, pipe length measures, and stagnation. Logistic regression modelling revealed three parameters (temperature after flushing until no significant changes in temperatures can be obtained, stagnation (low withdrawal, qualitatively assessed), pipe length proportion) to be the best predictors of Legionella contamination (>100 CFU/100 mL) at single outlets (precision = 66.7%; accuracy = 72.1%; F(0.5) score = 0.59). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  9. Guideline adherence for identification and hydration of high-risk hospital patients for contrast-induced nephropathy.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schilp, J.; Blok, C. de; Langelaan, M.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Wagner, C.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common cause of acute renal failure in hospital patients. To prevent CIN, identification and hydration of high-risk patients is important. Prevention of CIN by hydration of high-risk patients was one of the themes to be implemented in the Dutch

  10. Guideline adherence for identification and hydration of high-risk hospital patients for contrast-induced nephropathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schilp, J.; de Blok, C.; Langelaan, M.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Wagner, C.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common cause of acute renal failure in hospital patients. To prevent CIN, identification and hydration of high-risk patients is important. Prevention of CIN by hydration of high-risk patients was one of the themes to be implemented in the Dutch

  11. Risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet: Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, S. M.; Greig, J. B.; Bridges, J. W.

    2002-01-01

    the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is. hazard identification. hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard......, on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled. is also considered. (C) 2002 ILSI. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd....... All rights reserved....

  12. An 11-digit identification system for individual Nile crocodiles using natural markings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hindrik Bouwman

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Research and conservation of wild crocodiles and husbandry of captive crocodiles requires the reliable identification of individuals. We present a method using the individual colour markings on the first 10 single-crest scutes on the tails of Nile crocodiles (Crocodylus niloticus. The scutes are scored by number for colour, with a prefix for left or right providing a binary 11-digit identification number (identification numbers [IDs]; e.g. 12232232242 and 22333233232 per crocodile. A survey of 359 captive Nile crocodiles showed no duplication. However, 42% had asymmetrical scute markings requiring a binary approach. There does not seem to be a change in patterns with age, except that the number of missing scutes increased. A small trial showed that this method can be applied in the field, although more work is needed to determine observer bias and establish parameters for observability in the field. It is unlikely that both left and right IDs would be obtainable for each individual, but other distinctive markings such as scute shape and damage can be used to register the two IDs to one individual. Having two independent IDs for each crocodile provides the possibility of two independent population estimates for equal effort without having to link left and right IDs to individuals. Our proposed method would be useful in conservation, individual tracking and husbandry. Conservation implications: A non-invasive marking and recapture method for Nile crocodile is presented whereby the first 10 single-crest scutes are scored for colour, allowing conservation practitioners to count and monitor crocodile populations and individuals. This method provides two equal-effort estimations of population size, as left and right hand sides are scored independently. Keywords: Crocodylus niloticus; identification; mark - recapture; mark - resight

  13. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-05-03

    The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

  14. Efficient Discovery of De-identification Policies Through a Risk-Utility Frontier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Weiyi; Heatherly, Raymond; Ding, Xiaofeng; Li, Jiuyong; Malin, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    Modern information technologies enable organizations to capture large quantities of person-specific data while providing routine services. Many organizations hope, or are legally required, to share such data for secondary purposes (e.g., validation of research findings) in a de-identified manner. In previous work, it was shown de-identification policy alternatives could be modeled on a lattice, which could be searched for policies that met a prespecified risk threshold (e.g., likelihood of re-identification). However, the search was limited in several ways. First, its definition of utility was syntactic - based on the level of the lattice - and not semantic - based on the actual changes induced in the resulting data. Second, the threshold may not be known in advance. The goal of this work is to build the optimal set of policies that trade-off between privacy risk (R) and utility (U), which we refer to as a R-U frontier. To model this problem, we introduce a semantic definition of utility, based on information theory, that is compatible with the lattice representation of policies. To solve the problem, we initially build a set of policies that define a frontier. We then use a probability-guided heuristic to search the lattice for policies likely to update the frontier. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we perform an empirical analysis with the Adult dataset of the UCI Machine Learning Repository. We show that our approach can construct a frontier closer to optimal than competitive approaches by searching a smaller number of policies. In addition, we show that a frequently followed de-identification policy (i.e., the Safe Harbor standard of the HIPAA Privacy Rule) is suboptimal in comparison to the frontier discovered by our approach.

  15. Endocrine effects of chemicals: aspects of hazard identification and human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Colnot, Thomas

    2013-12-16

    Hazard and risk assessment of chemicals with endocrine activity is hotly debated due to claimed non-monotonous dose-response curves in the low-dose region. In hazard identification a clear definition of "endocrine disruptors" (EDs) is required; this should be based on the WHO/IPCS definition of EDs and on adverse effects demonstrated in intact animals or humans. Therefore, endocrine effects are a mode of action potentially resulting in adverse effects; any classification should not be based on a mode of action, but on adverse effects. In addition, when relying on adverse effects, most effects reported in the low-dose region will not qualify for hazard identification since most have little relation to an adverse effect. Non-monotonous dose-response curves that had been postulated from limited, exploratory studies could also not be reproduced in targeted studies with elaborate quality assurance. Therefore, regulatory agencies or advisory bodies continue to apply the safety-factor method or the concept of "margin-of-exposure" based on no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) in the risk assessment of chemicals with weak hormonal activity. Consistent with this approach, tolerable levels regarding human exposure have been defined for such chemicals. To conclusively support non-monotonous dose-response curves, targeted experiments with a sufficient number of animals, determination of adverse endpoints, adequate statistics and quality control would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Identification, classification, and discrimination of agave syrups from natural sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy and HPAEC-PAD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado-Mojica, Erika; López, Mercedes G

    2015-01-15

    Agave syrups are gaining popularity as new natural sweeteners. Identification, classification and discrimination by infrared spectroscopy coupled to chemometrics (NIR-MIR-SIMCA-PCA) and HPAEC-PAD of agave syrups from natural sweeteners were achieved. MIR-SIMCA-PCA allowed us to classify the natural sweeteners according to their natural source. Natural syrups exhibited differences in the MIR spectra region 1500-900 cm(-1). The agave syrups displayed strong absorption in the MIR spectra region 1061-1,063 cm(-1), in agreement with their high fructose content. Additionally, MIR-SIMCA-PCA allowed us to differentiate among syrups from different Agave species (Agavetequilana and Agavesalmiana). Thin-layer chromatography and HPAEC-PAD revealed glucose, fructose, and sucrose as the principal carbohydrates in all of the syrups. Oligosaccharide profiles showed that A. tequilana syrups are mainly composed of fructose (>60%) and fructooligosaccharides, while A. salmiana syrups contain more sucrose (28-32%). We conclude that MIR-SIMCA-PCA and HPAEC-PAD can be used to unequivocally identify and classified agave syrups. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Identification of Uranium Minerals in Natural U-Bearing Rocks Using Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beiswenger, Toya N. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Gallagher, Neal B. [Eigenvector Research, Inc., Manson, WA, USA; Myers, Tanya L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Szecsody, James E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tonkyn, Russell G. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Su, Yin-Fong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Sweet, Lucas E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Lewallen, Tricia A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Johnson, Timothy J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA

    2017-10-24

    The identification of minerals, including uranium-bearing minerals, is traditionally a labor-intensive-process using x-ray diffraction (XRD), fluorescence, or other solid-phase and wet chemical techniques. While handheld XRD and fluorescence instruments can aid in field identification, handheld infrared reflectance spectrometers can also be used in industrial or field environments, with rapid, non-destructive identification possible via spectral analysis of the solid’s reflectance spectrum. We have recently developed standard laboratory measurement methods for the infrared (IR) reflectance of solids and have investigated using these techniques for the identification of uranium-bearing minerals, using XRD methods for ground-truth. Due to the rich colors of such species, including distinctive spectroscopic signatures in the infrared, identification is facile and specific, both for samples that are pure or are partially composed of uranium (e.g. boltwoodite, schoepite, tyuyamunite, carnotite, etc.) or non-uranium minerals. The method can be used to detect not only pure and partial minerals, but is quite sensitive to chemical change such as hydration (e.g. schoepite). We have further applied statistical methods, in particular classical least squares (CLS) and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) for discrimination of such uranium minerals and two uranium pure chemicals (U3O8 and UO2) against common background materials (e.g. silica sand, asphalt, calcite, K-feldspar) with good success. Each mineral contains unique infrared spectral features; some of the IR features are similar or common to entire classes of minerals, typically arising from similar chemical moieties or functional groups in the minerals: phosphates, sulfates, carbonates, etc. These characteristic 2 infrared bands generate the unique (or class-specific) bands that distinguish the mineral from the interferents or backgrounds. We have observed several cases where the chemical moieties that provide the

  18. Identification of risk factors affecting construction of projects: The case of emerging economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chipo Mellania Maseko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Controlling project risks has become a daunting task in construction and this can be attributed to issues such as the nature of modern projects. The challenge is that risk appears unannounced at any project phase for various reasons and thereby affecting the performance and the success of unprepared projects. The current studies that explored risk matters include Pehlivan and Öztemir (2015, Katre, and Ghaitidak (2016 amongst others. However, there is absence of unanimity from these studies on risk factors in construction. Thus, this article was instigated in order to identify and classify risk factors that affect the chances of project success. The research methodology selected for this article comprised of peer-reviewed articles between the periods of 2007 to 2017. This approach involved a comprehensive scrutiny into scholarly articles to comprehend risks in construction projects. Following a conceptual analysis, eighty factors were identified and classified under the following; technical, construction, financial, socio-political, physical, organisational, and environmental and other risks. From these categories, political instability was, found to be the most influential risk factor in construction projects and this factor was classified within the socio-political category and this category has total of 11 factors. Finding suggests the need for further empirical study.

  19. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  20. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiechen Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  1. Rethink potential risks of toxic emissions from natural gas and oil mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingmin

    2018-09-01

    Studies have showed the increasing environmental and public health risks of toxic emissions from natural gas and oil mining, which have become even worse as fracking is becoming a dominant approach in current natural gas extraction. However, governments and communities often overlook the serious air pollutants from oil and gas mining, which are often quantified lower than the significant levels of adverse health effects. Therefore, we are facing a challenging dilemma: how could we clearly understand the potential risks of air toxics from natural gas and oil mining. This short study aims at the design and application of simple and robust methods to enhance and improve current understanding of the becoming worse toxic air emissions from natural gas and oil mining as fracking is becoming the major approach. Two simple ratios, the min-to-national-average and the max-to-national-average, are designed and applied to each type of air pollutants in a natural gas and oil mining region. The two ratios directly indicate how significantly high a type of air pollutant could be due to natural gas and oil mining by comparing it to the national average records, although it may not reach the significant risks of adverse health effects according to current risk screening methods. The min-to-national-average and the max-to-national-average ratios can be used as a direct and powerful method to describe the significance of air pollution by comparing it to the national average. The two ratios are easy to use for governments, stakeholders, and the public to pay enough attention on the air pollutants from natural gas and oil mining. The two ratios can also be thematically mapped at sampled sites for spatial monitoring, but spatial mitigation and analysis of environmental and health risks need other measurements of environmental and demographic characteristics across a natural gas and oil mining area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A review of research on the identification of factors influencing the social response to technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1977-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for technological development are being met by a variety of individual and group demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and a consideration of social values and concerns in the regulatory process. This has created conditions of conflict with some groups sponsoring proposals intended to fulfill perceived social needs while other groups, with different perceptions of society's needs, work actively in opposition. Only in recent years, as the rate of technological innovation has increased, has significant attention been given to the rapid rate of social and cultural change and the associated risks which have emerged. The degree to which an individual responds to these changes is related to his perception of their importance in his life; likewise, the repsonse to risk situations, on the individual and societal level, is based upon how the risks are perceived. The social response to the introduction of nuclear power provides an interesting case in point: here several studies have indicated that nuclear power plants might be considered ''safe''; however, nuclear power is nevertheless being opposed in many countries by those who perceive it as an unacceptable source of risk. This paper reviews research oriented toward understanding the response to technological risks through identification of the specific technical, social and psychological factors which influence their perception. Several such factors have been identified which relate to the risk object, the individual at risk, and the risk situation in which the individual encounters this object. Nuclear power was found to be characterised by more of the factors tending to increase risk perception than was any other technology. It is hypothesized that, in part due to its high ''risk visibility'' and an unconscious psychological coupling with the death imagery of nuclear weapons, nuclear energy

  3. Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

    2012-12-01

    Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

  4. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The identification of risk factors for ankle sprains sustained during netball participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attenborough, Alison S; Sinclair, Peter J; Sharp, Tristan; Greene, Andrew; Stuelcken, Max; Smith, Richard M; Hiller, Claire E

    2017-01-01

    Ankle sprains account for a large percentage of injuries sustained in netball. The identification of risk factors for ankle sprain is the preliminary action required to inform future prevention strategies. Prospective study. Ninety-four netball players from club and inter-district teams. Preseason data were collected for; vertical jump height, perceived ankle instability, sprain history, arthrometry inversion-eversion angles, star excursion balance test reach distances, the number of foot lifts during unilateral stance and demi-pointe balance test results. Participants were followed for the duration of one netball season and ankle sprains were recorded. Eleven sprains were recorded for eleven players using a time-loss definition of injury. Ankle sprains occurred at an incidence rate of 1.74/1000 h of netball exposure. One risk factor was identified to increase the odds of sustaining an ankle sprain during netball participation - a reach distance in the posterior-medial direction of the star excursion balance test of less than or equal to 77.5% of leg length (OR = 4.04, 95% CI = 1.00-16.35). The identified risk factor can be easily measured and should be considered for preseason injury risk profiling of netball players. Netball players may benefit from training programs aimed at improving single leg balance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Natural cement as the precursor of Portland cement: Methodology for its identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varas, M.J.; Alvarez de Buergo, M.; Fort, R.

    2005-01-01

    When cements appeared in the 19th century, they took the place of traditional binding materials (lime, gypsum, and hydraulic lime) which had been used until that time. Early cements can be divided into two groups, natural and artificial (Portland) cements. Natural cements were introduced first, but their widespread usage was short-lived as they were quickly replaced by artificial cements (Portland), still the most important and predominant today. The main differences between natural and artificial cements arise during the manufacturing process. The final properties of the cements are greatly influenced by differences in the raw materials and burning temperatures employed. The aim of this paper is to assess the efficiency of traditional analytical techniques (petrographic microscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR)) used to differentiate natural and artificial cements

  7. Dereplication of Natural Products Using GC-TOF Mass Spectrometry: Improved Metabolite Identification By Spectral Deconvolution Ratio Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fausto Carnevale Neto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Dereplication based on hyphenated techniques has been extensively applied in plant metabolomics, avoiding re-isolation of known natural products. However, due to the complex nature of biological samples and their large concentration range, dereplication requires the use of chemometric tools to comprehensively extract information from the acquired data. In this work we developed a reliable GC-MS-based method for the identification of non-targeted plant metabolites by combining the Ratio Analysis of Mass Spectrometry deconvolution tool (RAMSY with Automated Mass Spectral Deconvolution and Identification System software (AMDIS. Plants species from Solanaceae, Chrysobalanaceae and Euphorbiaceae were selected as model systems due to their molecular diversity, ethnopharmacological potential and economical value. The samples were analyzed by GC-MS after methoximation and silylation reactions. Dereplication initiated with the use of a factorial design of experiments to determine the best AMDIS configuration for each sample, considering linear retention indices and mass spectral data. A heuristic factor (CDF, compound detection factor was developed and applied to the AMDIS results in order to decrease the false-positive rates. Despite the enhancement in deconvolution and peak identification, the empirical AMDIS method was not able to fully deconvolute all GC-peaks, leading to low MF values and/or missing metabolites. RAMSY was applied as a complementary deconvolution method to AMDIS to peaks exhibiting substantial overlap, resulting in recovery of low-intensity co-eluted ions. The results from this combination of optimized AMDIS with RAMSY attested to the ability of this approach as an improved dereplication method for complex biological samples such as plant extracts.

  8. Identification of the hemoglobin scavenger receptor/CD163 as a natural soluble protein in plasma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Holger Jon; Peterslund, Niels Anker; Graversen, Jonas Heilskov

    2002-01-01

    enabled identification of a soluble plasma form of HbSR (sHbSR) having an electrophoretic mobility equal to that of recombinant HbSR consisting of the extracellular domain (scavenger receptor cysteine-rich 1-9). A sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was established and used to measure the s...... a level of sHbSR above the range of healthy persons. Patients with myelomonocytic leukemias and pneumonia/sepsis exhibited the highest levels (up to 67.3 mg/L). In conclusion, sHbSR is an abundant plasma protein potentially valuable in monitoring patients with infections and myelomonocytic leukemia....

  9. Spectral identification of plant communities for mapping of semi-natural grasslands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Anne; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Ejrnæs, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    identification of plant communities was based on a hierarchical approach relating the test sites to i) management (Ma) and ii) flora (Fl) using spectral consistency and separability as the main criteria. Evaluation of spectral consistency was based on unsupervised clustering of test sites of Ma classes 1 to 7...... as a measure of plant community heterogeneity within management classes. The spectral analysis as well as the maximum likelihood classification indicated that the source of spectral variation within management classes might be related to vegetation composition....

  10. Pre-test analysis for identification of natural circulation instabilities in TALL-3D facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kööp, Kaspar, E-mail: kaspar@safety.sci.kth.se; Jeltsov, Marti, E-mail: marti@safety.sci.kth.se; Grishchenko, Dmitry, E-mail: dmitry@safety.sci.kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pavel@safety.sci.kth.se

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • Global optimum search method was used to identify a region of instability. • Parametric study was used for detailed investigation of system behavior modes. • The results include identification of sustained mass flow rate oscillations. • Recommendations are made for selection of optimal experimental conditions. - Abstract: TALL-3D facility is a lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE) thermal-hydraulic loop designed to provide experimental data on thermal-hydraulics phenomena for validation of stand-alone and coupled System Thermal Hydraulics (STH) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. Pre-test analysis is crucial for proper choice of experimental conditions at which the experimental data would be most useful for code validation and benchmarking. The goal of this work is to identify these conditions at which the experiment is challenging for the STH codes yet minimizes the 3D-effects from the test section on the loop dynamics. The analysis is focused on the identification of limit cycle flow oscillations in the TALL-3D facility main heater leg using a global optimum search tool GA-NPO to find a general region in the parameter space where oscillatory behavior is expected. As a second step a grid study is conducted outlining the boundaries between different stability modes. Phenomena, simulation results and methodology for selection of the test parameters are discussed in detail and recommendations for experiments are provided.

  11. Identification and Structural Characterization of Naturally-Occurring Broad-Spectrum Cyclic Antibiotics Isolated from Paenibacillus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knolhoff, Ann M.; Zheng, Jie; McFarland, Melinda A.; Luo, Yan; Callahan, John H.; Brown, Eric W.; Croley, Timothy R.

    2015-08-01

    The rise of antimicrobial resistance necessitates the discovery and/or production of novel antibiotics. Isolated strains of Paenibacillus alvei were previously shown to exhibit antimicrobial activity against a number of pathogens, such as E. coli, Salmonella, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The responsible antimicrobial compounds were isolated from these Paenibacillus strains and a combination of low and high resolution mass spectrometry with multiple-stage tandem mass spectrometry was used for identification. A group of closely related cyclic lipopeptides was identified, differing primarily by fatty acid chain length and one of two possible amino acid substitutions. Variation in the fatty acid length resulted in mass differences of 14 Da and yielded groups of related MSn spectra. Despite the inherent complexity of MS/MS spectra of cyclic compounds, straightforward analysis of these spectra was accomplished by determining differences in complementary product ion series between compounds that differ in molecular weight by 14 Da. The primary peptide sequence assignment was confirmed through genome mining; the combination of these analytical tools represents a workflow that can be used for the identification of complex antibiotics. The compounds also share amino acid sequence similarity to a previously identified broad-spectrum antibiotic isolated from Paenibacillus. The presence of such a wide distribution of related compounds produced by the same organism represents a novel class of broad-spectrum antibiotic compounds.

  12. Health risk assessment based on injection of upgraded biogas in natural gas grid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leroux, C.; Modelon, H.; Rousselle, C.; Zdanevitch, I.; Evanno, S.

    2010-01-01

    This document presents the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (AFSSET). Results are based on a collective expertise conducted to assess health risks associated with the injection of biogas in the natural gas grid. The complete assessment is published and available on the web site of the Agency; only the major results are presented in this document. Following recommendations issued by AFSSET in 2008, a new study has been initiated to collect and analyze data on the composition of biogas from sewage sludge. The French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) is in charge of this project. The data will be used to assess the accidental risks (resulting from the upgrading of biogas, transport by pipeline and utilization for energy purposes) and health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas grid). (authors)

  13. The General Urban Plan of Casimcea territorial administrative unit, map of natural and anthropogenic risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin BĂNICĂ

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The General Urban Plan represents the legal ground for any development action proposed. After endorsement and approval as required by law, GUP is act of authority of local government for the area in which it applies. The aim is to establish priorities regulations applied in land use planning and construction of structures. In terms of geographical location, the administrative territory of Casimcea, Tulcea county, falls in the central Northwest Plateau Casimcei. This is the second unit of the Central Dobrogea Plateau. Geographical location in southeastern Romania, climatic and relief conditions and anthropogenic pressure, expose the village administrative territorial unit Casimcea, permanent susceptibility to produce natural and antropogenical risks. In this context, we identified the following categories of natural and anthropogenic risks: i natural risk phenomena (earthquakes, strong winds, heavy rains, floods caused by overflowing or precipitation, erosion of river banks and torrents, gravitational processes, rain droplet erosion and surface soil erosion; and ii anthropogenic risk phenomena (overgrazing, chemicals use in agriculture, road transport infrastructure and electricity, wind turbines for electricity production, waste deposits, agro-zootechnical complexs, and human cemeteries. Extending their surface was materialized by creating a map of natural and anthropogenic risk on Casimcea territorial administrative unit, explaining the share of potentially affected areas as territorial balance

  14. Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

  15. Mode shape and natural frequency identification for seismic analysis from background vibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhan, S.; Wozniak, Z.

    1986-02-01

    The feasibility of calculating natural frequencies and mode shapes of major equipment in a CANDU reactor from the measurements of their response to background excitation has been studied. A review of vibration data measured at various locations in CANDU plants shows that structures responded to a combination of random and harmonic background excitation. Amplitude of measured vibration is sufficient to allow meaningful data analysis. Frequency content in the 0 to 50-Hz range, which is of interest for earthquake response, is present in some of the vibration measurements studied. Spectral techniques have been developed for determining the response function of structures from measured vibration response to background excitation. The natural frequencies and mode shapes are then evaluated graphically from the frequency function plots. The methodology has been tested on a simple cantilever beam with known natural frequencies and mode shapes. The comparison between the theoretical and the computed natural frequencies and mode shapes is good for the lower modes. However, better curve-fitting techniques will be required in future, especially for higher modes. Readily available equipment necessary for the measurement of background vibration in a CANDU plant (which is commercially available) has been identified. An experimental program has been proposed to verify the methodology developed in this study. Recommendations are also made to study methods to improve the accuracy of the mode shape and natural frequency prediction

  16. Predictive teratology: teratogenic risk-hazard identification partnered in the discovery process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustine-Rauch, K A

    2008-11-01

    Unexpected teratogenicity is ranked as one of the most prevalent causes for toxicity-related attrition of drug candidates. Without proactive assessment, the liability tends to be identified relatively late in drug development, following significant investment in compound and engagement in pre clinical and clinical studies. When unexpected teratogenicity occurs in pre-clinical development, three principle questions arise: Can clinical trials that include women of child bearing populations be initiated? Will all compounds in this pharmacological class produce the same liability? Could this effect be related to the chemical structure resulting in undesirable off-target adverse effects? The first question is typically addressed at the time of the unexpected finding and involves considering the nature of the teratogenicity, whether or not maternal toxicity could have had a role in onset, human exposure margins and therapeutic indication. The latter two questions can be addressed proactively, earlier in the discovery process as drug target profiling and lead compound optimization is taking place. Such proactive approaches include thorough assessment of the literature for identification of potential liabilities and follow-up work that can be conducted on the level of target expression and functional characterization using molecular biology and developmental model systems. Developmental model systems can also be applied in the form of in vitro teratogenicity screens, and show potential for effective hazard identification or issue resolution on the level of characterizing teratogenic mechanism. This review discusses approaches that can be applied for proactive assessment of compounds for teratogenic liability.

  17. THE IMPACT OF NATURAL RISKS ON AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena NIREAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate, topography and soil are natural conditions of basic agricultural yields. In general, Moldova has favorable climatic conditions and relief. Soils in the North have a high degree of fertility, while the central and southern regions are of average fertility. At the same time natural calamities such as droughts, late spring frosts, hail and floods have a destructive impact on crops. Climate instability is one of the main causes of unstable yields and is an inherent risk for agriculture of the country. More than that, most of the plots lose their natural fertility and require rehabilitation.

  18. ATLAS “RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN XXI CENTURY: NATURAL CHALLENGES AND RISKS OF DEVELOPMENT”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Alekseevskiy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available  The huge investigation of Arctic region of Russia was performed by team of researchers from Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University. This investigation resulted in creation of atlas “Russian Arctic in XXI century: natural challenges and risks of development”. In the first place this atlas was made for pupils and school teachers, letting them study modern features of natural environment and socio-economical processes. Atlas contains 7 sections, including both natural and socio-economical maps.

  19. Identification of glacial flood hazards in karakorum range using remote sensing technique and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashraf, A.; Roohi, R.; Naz, R.

    2011-01-01

    Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are great hazard for the downstream communities in context of changing climatic conditions in the glaciated region of Pakistan. The remote sensing data of Landsat ETM+ was utilized for the identification of glacial lakes susceptible to posing GLOF hazard in Karakoram Range. Overall, 887 glacial lakes are identified in different river-basins of Karakoram Range, out of which 16 lakes are characterized as potentially dangerous in terms of GLOF. The analysis of community's response to GLOF events of 2008 in the central Karakoram Range indicated gaps in coordination and capacity of the local communities to cope with such natural hazards. A regular monitoring of hot spots and potential GLOF lakes along with capacity- of local communities and institutions in coping future disaster situation is necessary, especially in the context of changing climatic conditions in Himalayan region. (author)

  20. Identification and compatibility of the major active principles in some new natural origin antiseptics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, G. S.; Zlatković, S.; Nikolić, N.

    2009-09-01

    The newly established instrumentation of HPLC/DAD, FTIR, and NMR techniques have been applied for simultaneous identification and physicochemical compatibility determination of the potential major antiseptic constituents ( Hypericum perforatum L. and Usnea barbata extracts) which can be present in some new origin pharmaceutical preparation. Based on the obtained results the conclusion is that a simultaneous use of the analyzed constituents in production of some new preparations with antiseptic properties is possible. The chromatographic separation of antiseptic mixture was performed on a RP-HPLC C18 column. For the NMR detection, the analytes eluted from LC column were trapped and hereafter transported into the NMR flow-cell. The NMR and FTIR techniques allowed the characterization of the major constituent of Hypericum perforatum L., mainly hypericin, as well as of Usnea barbata, mainly usnic acid.

  1. Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

    2017-01-01

    Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

  2. Natural gas for electric power generation: Strategic issues, risks and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderman, C.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas is again being regarded as a significant fuel for electric power generation. It was once a predominant fuel for utilities in gas-producing areas, but natural gas consumption declined greatly after the 1973 oil shock because of reduced electricity demand and increased coal and nuclear generation. Moreover, wellhead price and other forms of regulation produced gas shortages in the 1970s. The resurgence of natural gas in future resource plans stems from its inherent ideal fuel characteristics: short lead time; low capital costs; small increments of modular capacity; delivered close to load centers; environmentally benign, preferable to oil and coal; and potential for high thermal efficiency in gas turbines. Natural gas, if available and attractively priced, is an ideal fuel for electric power generation. No other fuel shares these attractive characteristics, and utilities, facing higher than expected load growth, are relying on an increasing proportion of gas-fired combustion turbines, combined cycle plants, and cogeneration to meet a growing, yet uncertain, future demand for electricity. Despite these desirable operating characteristics, the varied past and uncertain future of natural gas markets raise legitimate concerns about the riskiness of current utility natural gas strategies. This report, which summarizes the major findings from research efforts, is intended to help utility decision-makers understand the full range of risks they face with natural gas electric power generation and to identify actions they can take to mitigate those risks

  3. Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Paola; Parisi, Fulvio

    2016-01-01

    Natural-gas pipeline accidents mostly result in major damage even to buildings located far away. Therefore, proper safety distances should be observed in land use planning to ensure target safety levels for both existing and new buildings. In this paper, a quantitative risk assessment procedure is presented for the estimation of the annual probability of direct structural damage to reinforced concrete buildings associated with high-pressure natural-gas pipeline explosions. The procedure is based on Monte Carlo simulation and takes into account physical features of blast generation and propagation, as well as damage to reinforced concrete columns. The natural-gas jet release process and the flammable cloud size are estimated through SLAB one-dimensional integral model incorporating a release rate model. The explosion effects are evaluated by a Multi-Energy Method. Damage to reinforced concrete columns is predicted by means of pressure–impulse diagrams. The conditional probability of damage was estimated at multiple pressure–impulse levels, allowing blast fragility surfaces to be derived at different performance limit states. Finally, blast risk was evaluated and allowed the estimation of minimum pipeline-to-building safety distances for risk-informed urban planning. The probabilistic procedure presented herein may be used for performance-based design/assessment of buildings and to define the path of new natural-gas pipeline networks. - Highlights: • The safety of buildings against blast loads due to pipeline accidents is assessed. • A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is presented for natural-gas pipelines. • The annual risk of collapse of reinforced concrete building columns is evaluated. • Monte Carlo simulation was carried out considering both pipeline and column features. • A risk-targeted safety distance is proposed for blast strength class 9.

  4. Identification of bacteriology and risk factor analysis of asymptomatic bacterial colonization in pacemaker replacement patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ming Chu

    Full Text Available Recent researches revealed that asymptomatic bacterial colonization on PMs might be ubiquitous and increase the risk of clinical PM infection. Early diagnosis of patients with asymptomatic bacterial colonization could provide opportunity for targeted preventive measures.The present study explores the incidence of bacterial colonization of generator pockets in pacemaker replacement patients without signs of infection, and to analyze risk factors for asymptomatic bacterial colonization.From June 2011 to December 2013, 118 patients underwent pacemaker replacement or upgrade. Identification of bacteria was carried out by bacterial culture and 16S rRNA sequencing. Clinical risk characteristics were analyzed.The total bacterial positive rate was 37.3% (44 cases, and the coagulase-negative Staphylococcus aureus detection rate was the highest. Twenty two (18.6% patients had positive bacterial culture results, of which 50% had coagulase-negative staphylococcus. The bacterial DNA detection rate was 36.4 % (43 cases. Positive bacterial DNA results from pocket tissues and the surface of the devices were 22.0% and 29.7%, respectively. During follow-up (median, 27.0 months, three patients (6.8%, 3/44 became symptomatic with the same genus of microorganism, S. aureus (n=2 and S. epidermidis (n=1. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that history of bacterial infection, use of antibiotics, application of antiplatelet drugs, replacement frequency were independent risk factors for asymptomatic bacterial colonization.There was a high incidence of asymptomatic bacterial colonization in pacemaker patients with independent risk factors. Bacterial culture combined genetic testing could improve the detection rate.

  5. Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

  6. Isolation, identification and evaluation of natural antioxidants from aromatic herbs cultivated in Lithuania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dapkevicius, A.

    2002-01-01

    Oxidative spoilage of lipid-rich foods decreases their shelf-life and leads to undesirable chemical and physical changes. Nowadays natural antioxidants are generally preferred. The major part of industrially used antioxidants consists of radical scavengers, which inhibit the oxidative chain reaction

  7. Identification and characterization of novel natural pathogen of Drosophila melanogaster isolated from wild captured Drosophila spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Karan; Zulkifli, Mohammad; Prasad, N G

    2016-12-01

    Drosophila melanogaster is an emerging model system for the study of evolutionary ecology of immunity. However, a large number of studies have used non natural pathogens as very few natural pathogens have been isolated and identified. Our aim was to isolate and characterize natural pathogen/s of D. melanogaster. A bacterial pathogen was isolated from wild caught Drosophila spp., identified as a new strain of Staphylococcus succinus subsp. succinus and named PK-1. This strain induced substantial mortality (36-62%) in adults of several laboratory populations of D. melanogaster. PK-1 grew rapidly within the body of the flies post infection and both males and females had roughly same number of colony forming units. Mortality was affected by mode of infection and dosage of the pathogen. However mating status of the host had no effect on mortality post infection. Given that there are very few known natural bacterial pathogens of D. melanogaster and that PK-1 can establish a sustained infection across various outbred and inbred populations of D. melanogaster this new isolate is a potential resource for future studies on immunity. Copyright © 2016 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Molecular subtyping of breast cancer improves identification of both high and low risk patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, Maria; Østrup, Olga; Majewski, Wiktor W.

    2018-01-01

    classification and final reports were available prior to the multidisciplinary conference. Using a prognostic standard mortality rate index (PSMRi) developed by the Danish Breast Cancer Group (DBCG) 39 patients were assigned with an intermediate risk and among these 16 (41%) were furthermore diagnosed...... by the multi-gene signature assigned with a luminal A tumor and consequently spared adjuvant chemotherapy. There was overall agreement between mRNA derived and IHC hormone receptor status, whereas IHC Ki67 protein proliferative index proved inaccurate, compared to the mRNA derived index. Forty-one patients...... with basal-like (basL) subtypes were screened for predisposing mutations regardless of clinical predisposition. Of those 17% carried pathogenic mutations. Conclusion: Transcriptome based subtyping of breast tumors evidently reduces the need for adjuvant chemotherapy and improves identification of women...

  9. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  10. The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk Taking : Evidence from a Natural Experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gropp, R.; Grundl, C.; Guttler, A.

    2010-01-01

    In 2001, government guarantees for savings banks in Germany were removed following a law suit. We use this natural experiment to examine the effect of government guarantees on bank risk taking, using a large data set of matched bank/borrower information. The results suggest that banks whose

  11. Food supply chain disruption due to natural disaster: Entities, risks and strategies for resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    The resilience of food supply chain (FSC) to disruptions has not kept pace with the extended, globalized and complex network of modern food chain. This chapter presents a holistic view of the FSC, interactions among its components, risks and vulnerabilities of disruption in the context of natural d...

  12. Reducing the Risk of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Children Following Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohay, Heather; Forbes, Nicole

    2009-01-01

    A significant number of children suffer long-term psychological disturbance following exposure to a natural disaster. Evidence suggests that a dose-response relationship exists, so that children and adolescents who experience the most intense or extensive exposure to the risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are likely to develop…

  13. Natural Products for the Prevention and Alleviation of Risk Factors for Diabetes: Chromium and Cinnamon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natural products are widespread for the alleviation and prevention of the risk factors of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes. We have shown that glucose, insulin, cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1c levels are all improved in people with type 2 diabetes following chromium supplementation in a double-b...

  14. Age at natural menopause and risk of type 2 diabetes : A prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Muka (Taulant); E. Asllanaj (Eralda); N. Avazverdi (Naim); L. Jaspers (Loes); N. Stringa (Najada); J. Milic (Jelena); S. Ligthart (Symen); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); J.S.E. Laven (Joop); M. Kavousi (Maryam); A. Dehghan (Abbas); O.H. Franco (Oscar)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstract__Aims/hypothesis__ In this study, we aimed to examine the association between age at natural menopause and risk of type 2 diabetes, and to assess whether this association is independent of potential mediators. __Methods__ We included 3639 postmenopausal women from the

  15. Pricing, hedging and risk management : practical tips for natural gas buyers and sellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shields, D.

    1998-01-01

    Risk analysis and techniques to manage risk as it pertains to the natural gas industry were discussed. Portfolio allocations for long-term, short-term fixed price and variable price contracts were described. Options were defined as a market instrument offering the benefits of a fixed price purchase or sale without the obligation of incurring financial or opportunity losses if the market goes against the option buyer. Options should be used as a defence strategy to protect portfolios from price risk in times of uncertainty and to take advantage of current floating market conditions without making a full price commitment. Options can also be used as an offensive strategy to make a directional play on the market or on volatility. Options selling was regarded as a much higher risk than options buying. The variables that affect options premiums were: (1) volatility, (2) time to expiration, (3) underlying price versus strike price, and (4) flexibility. Williams Energy's new world class energy trading floor in Tulsa, Oklahoma was also described. Williams is the largest-volume transporter of natural gas in the U.S. with more than 27,000 miles of pipelines. Williams pipelines transport 16 per cent of all the natural gas used in the U.S. and the company is one of the nation's largest natural gas gatherers and processors. tabs., figs

  16. Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

  17. Prototype of a web - based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aye, Z.C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.H.; van Westen, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and

  18. Monitoring and Risk Identification Caused by High Water, Floods and Erosion Processes in Urban Part of Sava Riverbed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oskoruš, D.; Miković, N.; Ljevar, I.

    2012-04-01

    Riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in the upper stream of Sava River. The increasing gradient of those changes is interconnected with the level of human influence in the river basin and riverbed as well. In time period of last forty years the consequences of riverbed erosion are become serious as well as dangerous and they threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. The increasing value of flow velocity in riverbed in urban part of river section during high water level, mud and debris flow during the floods as well, is especially dangerous for old bridges. This paper contains result of velocity measurements during high waters taken by Hydrological Service of Republic Croatia, load transport monitoring during such events and cross sections in some vulnerable location. In this paper is given one example of Jakuševac railway bridge in Zagreb, heavily destroyed during high water event on the 30 March 2009., recently reconstructed by "Croatian Railways" company. Keywords: Riverbed erosion, flow velocity, mud and debris flow, risk identification, stability of bridges

  19. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  20. Identification of the Nile crocodile Crocodylus niloticus by the use of natural tail marks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.G.J. Swanepoel

    1996-08-01

    Full Text Available The tail marks of 190 Nile crocodiles Crocodylus niloticus were documented and processed into codes. The size of the crocodiles varied from 45 cm to 4.6 m in total length. Wherever possible, both sides of the tails were observed and the marks documented. In all remaining instances only one side could be identified. A total of 267 sides were identified. The natural marks on nine segments of a specific portion of the tail was recorded and compared as codes. For this comparison two methods were employed. Differences of 95.1 and 100 was found with the respective methods. This is an indication that every crocodile has a unique pattern of natural marks on its tail. The marks can therefore be used to allocate a code to an individual crocodile that partially eliminates the necessity of artificial marking methods.

  1. Identification of the Nile crocodile Crocodylus niloticus by the use of natural tail marks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.G.J. Swanepoel

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available The tail marks of 190 Nile crocodiles Crocodylus niloticus were documented and processed into codes. The size of the crocodiles varied from 45 cm to 4.6 m in total length. Wherever possible, both sides of the tails were observed and the marks documented. In all remaining instances only one side could be identified. A total of 267 sides were identified. The natural marks on nine segments of a specific portion of the tail was recorded and compared as codes. For this comparison two methods were employed. Differences of 95.1 and 100 was found with the respective methods. This is an indication that every crocodile has a unique pattern of natural marks on its tail. The marks can therefore be used to allocate a code to an individual crocodile that partially eliminates the necessity of artificial marking methods.

  2. Computer-Aided Identification of Anticonvulsant Effect of Natural Nonnutritive Sweeteners Stevioside and Rebaudioside A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Ianni, Mauricio E.; del Valle, Mara E.; Enrique, Andrea V.; Rosella, Mara A.; Bruno, Fiorella; Bruno-Blanch, Luis E.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Steviol glycosides are natural constituents of Stevia rebaudiana (Bert.) Bert. (Asteraceae) that have recently gained worldwide approval as nonnutritive sweeteners by the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives. Cheminformatic tools suggested that the aglycone steviol and several of its phase I metabolites were predicted as potential anticonvulsant agents effective in the seizure animal model maximal electroshock seizure (MES) test. Thus, aqueous infusion from S. rebaudiana was tested in the MES test (mice, intraperitoneal administration), confirming dose-dependent anticonvulsant effect. Afterward, isolated stevioside and rebaudioside A were tested in the MES test, with positive results. Though drug repositioning most often focuses on known therapeutics, this article illustrates the possibilities of this strategy to find new functionalities and therapeutic indications for food constituents and natural products. PMID:26258457

  3. Use of Moringa oleifera Flower Pod Extract as Natural Preservative and Development of SCAR Marker for Its DNA Based Identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Iram; Javed, Attia; Aslam, Muhammad Shahbaz; Mushtaq, Roohi; Athar, Muhammad Amin

    2016-01-01

    The use of Moringa oleifera as natural food preservative has been evaluated in the present study. In addition, for quality assurance, the study has also been focused on the shelf life of product to authenticate the identification of plant by development of DNA based marker. Among the different extracts prepared from flower pods of Moringa oleifera, methanol and aqueous extract exhibited high antibacterial and antioxidant activity, respectively. The high phenolic contents (53.5 ± 0.169 mg GAE/g) and flavonoid contents (10.9 ± 0.094 mg QE/g) were also recorded in methanol and aqueous extract, respectively. Due to instability of bioactive compounds in aqueous extract, methanol extract is considered as potent natural preservative. The shelf life of methanol extract was observed for two months at 4°C under dark conditions. The developed SCAR primers (MOF217/317/MOR317) specifically amplified a fragment of 317 bp from DNA of Moringa oleifera samples collected from different regions of Punjab province of Pakistan. The methanol extract of Moringa oleifera flower pods has great potential to be used as natural preservative and nutraceutical in food industry.

  4. Identification of Natural Ventilation Parameters in a Greenhouse with Continuous Roof Vents, Using a PSO and GAs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhafid HASNI

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Although natural ventilation plays an important role in the affecting greenhouse climate, as defined by temperature, humidity and CO2 concentration, particularly in Mediterranean countries, little information and data are presently available on full-scale greenhouse ventilation mechanisms. In this paper, we present a new method for selecting the parameters based on a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm and a genetic algorithm (GA which optimize the choice of parameters by minimizing a cost function. The simulator was based on a published model with some minor modifications as we were interested in the parameter of ventilation. The function is defined by a reduced model that could be used to simulate and predict the greenhouse environment, as well as the tuning methods to compute their parameters. This study focuses on the dynamic behavior of the inside air temperature and humidity during ventilation. Our approach is validated by comparison with some experimental results. Various experimental techniques were used to make full-scale measurements of the air exchange rate in a 400 m2 plastic greenhouse. The model which we propose based on natural ventilation parameters optimized by a particle swarm optimization was compared with the measurements results. Furthermore, the PSO and the GA are used to identify the natural ventilation parameters in a greenhouse. In all cases, identification goal is successfully achieved using the PSO and compared with that obtained using the GA. For the problem at hand, it is found that the PSO outperforms the GA.

  5. Animal-derived natural products of Sowa Rigpa medicine: Their pharmacopoeial description, current utilization and zoological identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeshi, Karma; Morisco, Paolo; Wangchuk, Phurpa

    2017-07-31

    The Bhutanese Sowa Rigpa medicine (BSM) uses animal parts in the preparation of numerous polyingredient traditional remedies. Our study reports the taxonomical identification of medicinal animals and the description of traditional uses in English medical terminologies. To taxonomically identify the medicinal animals and their derived natural products used as a zootherapeutic agents in BSM. First, the traditional textbooks were reviewed to generate a list of animal products described as ingredients. Second, animal parts that are currently used in Bhutan were identified. Third, the ethnopharmacological uses of each animal ingredients were translated into English medical terminologies by consulting Traditional Physicians, clinical assistants, pharmacognosists, and pharmacists in Bhutan. Fourth, the animal parts were taxonomically identified and their Latin names were confirmed by crosschecking them with online animal databases and relevant scientific literature. The study found 73 natural products belonging to 29 categories derived from 45 medicinal animals (36 vertebrates and 9 invertebrates), comprising of 9 taxonomic categories and 30 zoological families. Out of 116 formulations currently produced, 87 of them contain one or more extracts and products obtained from 13 medicinal animals to treat more than 124 traditionally classified illnesses. Only five animal ingredients were found available in Bhutan and rest of the animal parts are being imported from India. Out of 73 natural products described in the traditional textbooks, only 13 of them (some omitted and few substituted by plants) are currently included in 87 formulations of BSM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Identification of natural fractures and in situ stress at Rantau Dedap geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artyanto, Andika; Sapiie, Benyamin; Idham Abdullah, Chalid; Permana Sidik, Ridwan

    2017-12-01

    Rantau Dedap Area is a geothermal field which is located in Great Sumatra Fault (GSF). The fault and fracture are main factor in the permeability of the geothermal system. However, not all faults and fractures have capability of to flow the fluids. Borehole image log is depiction of the borehole conditions, it is used to identify the natural fractures and drilling induced fracture. Both of them are used to identify the direction of the fracture, direction of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax), and geomechanics parameters. The natural fractures are the results of responses to stress on a rock and permeability which controlling factor in research area. Breakouts is found in this field as a trace of drilling induced fracture due to in situ stress work. Natural fractures are strongly clustered with true strike trending which first, second, and third major direction are N170°E - N180°E (N-S), N60°E - N70°E (NE-SW), and N310°E - N320°E (NW-SE), while the dominant dip is 80° -90°. Based on borehole breakout analysis, maximum horizontal stress orientation is identified in N162°E - N204°E (N-S) and N242°E (NE-SW) direction. It’s constantly similar with regional stress which is affected by GSF. Several parameters have been identified and analyzed are SHmax, SHmin, and Sy. It can be concluded that Rantau Dedap Geothermal Field is affected by strike-slip regime. The determination of in situ stress and natural fractures are important to study the pattern of permeability which is related to the fault in reservoir of this field.

  7. Standardization of natural phenomena risk assessment methodology at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J.C.; Hsu, Y.S.

    1985-01-01

    Safety analyses at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) normally require consideration of the risks of incidents caused by natural events such as high-velocity straight winds, tornadic winds, and earthquakes. The probabilities for these events to occur at SRP had been studied independently by several investigators, but the results of their studies were never systematically evaluated. As part of the endeavor to standardize our environmental risk assessment methodology, these independent studies have been thoroughly reviewed and critiqued, and appropriate probability models for these natural events have been selected. The selected probability models for natural phenomena, high-velocity straight winds and tornadic winds in particular, are in agreement with those being used at other DOE sites, and have been adopted as a guide for all safety studies conducted for SRP operations and facilities. 7 references, 3 figures

  8. Identification of Natural Oscillation Modes for Purposes of Seismic Assessment and Monitoring of HPP Dams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuz’menko, A. P., E-mail: apkuzm@gmail.com; Saburov, S. V., E-mail: saburov58@yandex.ru [Russian Academy of Sciences, Computer Equipment Design Technology Institute, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation)

    2016-07-15

    The paper puts forward a method for processing data from detailed seismic assessments of HPP dams (dynamic tests). A detailed assessment (hundreds of observation points in dam galleries) is performed with consideration of operating dam equipment and the microseismic noise. It is shown that dynamic oscillation characteristics (natural oscillation frequencies and modes in the main dam axes, the velocities of propagation of elastic waves with given polarization, and so on.) can be determined with sufficient accuracy by using complex transfer functions and pulse characteristics. Monitoring data is processed using data from a detailed assessment, taking account of identified natural oscillation modes and determined ranges of natural frequencies. The spectra of characteristic frequencies thus obtained are used to choose substitution models and estimate the elastic characteristics of the “dam – rock bed” construction system, viz., the modulus of elasticity (the Young modulus), the Poisson ratio, the dam section stiffness with respect to shear, tension and compression and the elastic characteristics of the rock foundation.

  9. Genotyping, identification and multifunctional features of yeasts associated to Bosana naturally black table olive fermentations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porru, Cinzia; Rodríguez-Gómez, Francisco; Benítez-Cabello, Antonio; Jiménez-Díaz, Rufino; Zara, Giacomo; Budroni, Marilena; Mannazzu, Ilaria; Arroyo-López, Francisco Noé

    2018-02-01

    Directly brined black table olives of Bosana variety are a traditional food product of Sardinia island (Italy), spontaneously fermented by yeasts among other microorganisms. However, as far as we know, the identification, biotechnological and probiotic potential of this yeast community has not been investigated yet. In this work, a total of 72 yeast isolates previously obtained from Bosana olive brines were first genotyped by Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD-PCR) analysis with primer M13, and then identified by sequencing of D1/D2 domains of rDNA 26S gene. The dominant species were Wickerhamomyces anomalus and Nakazawaea molendini-olei, albeit Candida diddensiae, Candida boidinii, Zygotorulaspora mrakii, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae were also present in lower proportions. For the different biotypes of yeasts obtained, the multivariate analysis of their technological (esterase, lipase and β-glucosidase activities, growth in presence of oleuropein, resistance and susceptibility to NaCl) and probiotic (removal of cholesterol, gastric and pancreatic digestions, biofilms assays alone and in co-culture with Lactobacillus pentosus) features, showed that W. anomalus Wa1 exhibited the best technological characteristics, while S. cerevisiae Sc24 and C. boidinii Cb60 showed promising probiotic features. Therefore, they may have potential application as multifunctional starters, alone or in combination with lactic acid bacteria, during olive processing, albeit further studies are necessary to validate these results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The implementation of local wisdom in reducing natural disaster risk: a case study from West Sumatera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfadrim, Z.; Toyoda, Y.; Kanegae, H.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce some local wisdoms in West Sumatra and propose their challenges that modern values have degraded its knowledge. In a contemporary context, traditional stories (written and oral stories) still relevant to be used and internalized in disaster risk reduction. Traditional knowledge or local wisdom is a system of knowledge derived from long experienced process in the past, adopted and handed over to next generation through evolutionary process. Indigenous or traditional knowledge can be practiced in understanding the nature of natural disaster, to propose the best action in mitigation, to respond in emergency phase, and to suggest more option for recovery process based on previous experience. The paper based on four weeks field research in west Sumatra which is known with their natural hazards due to its geographical location. In the beginning, this paper discusses the nature of local wisdom and how it can be matched in disaster management, then continues to the specific case how the traditional stories in West Sumatera can be internalized and integrated with contemporary disaster risk reduction. This paper proves that local wisdom can be useful as an effective instrument to deal with natural disaster or natural hazard.

  11. Artificial intelligence on the identification of risk groups for osteoporosis, a general review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Agnaldo S; Lins, Hertz C; Medeiros, Ricardo V A; Filho, José M F; da Silva, Sandro G

    2018-01-29

    The goal of this paper is to present a critical review on the main systems that use artificial intelligence to identify groups at risk for osteoporosis or fractures. The systems considered for this study were those that fulfilled the following requirements: range of coverage in diagnosis, low cost and capability to identify more significant somatic factors. A bibliographic research was done in the databases, PubMed, IEEExplorer Latin American and Caribbean Center on Health Sciences Information (LILACS), Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct searching the terms "Neural Network", "Osteoporosis Machine Learning" and "Osteoporosis Neural Network". Studies with titles not directly related to the research topic and older data that reported repeated strategies were excluded. The search was carried out with the descriptors in German, Spanish, French, Italian, Mandarin, Portuguese and English; but only studies written in English were found to meet the established criteria. Articles covering the period 2000-2017 were selected; however, articles prior to this period with great relevance were included in this study. Based on the collected research, it was identified that there are several methods in the use of artificial intelligence to help the screening of risk groups of osteoporosis or fractures. However, such systems were limited to a specific ethnic group, gender or age. For future research, new challenges are presented. It is necessary to develop research with the unification of different databases and grouping of the various attributes and clinical factors, in order to reach a greater comprehensiveness in the identification of risk groups of osteoporosis. For this purpose, the use of any predictive tool should be performed in different populations with greater participation of male patients and inclusion of a larger age range for the

  12. Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

    2015-07-01

    Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

  13. A HYPOTHESIS: COULD PORTABLE NATURAL GRASS BE A RISK FACTOR FOR KNEE INJURIES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Orchard

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous study has shown a likely link between increased shoe- surface traction and risk of knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL injury. Portable natural grass systems are being used more often in sport, but no study to date has investigated their relative safety. By their nature, they must have high resistance to falling apart and therefore newly laid systems may be at risk of creating excessive shoe-surface traction. This study describes two clusters of knee injuries (particularly non-contact ACL injuries, each occurring to players of one professional football team at single venue, using portable grass, in a short space of time. The first series included two ACL injuries, one posterolateral complex disruption and one lateral ligament tear occurring in two rugby league games on a portable bermudagrass surface in Brisbane, Australia. The second series included four non-contact ACL injuries over a period of ten weeks in professional soccer games on a portable Kentucky bluegrass/perennial ryegrass surface in Barcelona, Spain. Possible intrinsic risk factors are discussed but there was no common risk shared by the players. Although no measures of traction were made at the Brisbane venue, average rotational traction was measured towards the end of the injury cluster at Camp Nou, Barcelona, to be 48 Nm. Chance undoubtedly had a part to play in these clusters, but the only obvious common risk factor was play on a portable natural grass surface soon after it was laid. Further study is required to determine whether portable natural grass systems may exhibit high shoe-surface traction soon after being laid and whether this could be a risk factor for knee injury

  14. Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

    1991-08-01

    This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update

  15. Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

    1991-08-01

    This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update.

  16. Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shan, Xian; Liu, Kang; Sun, Pei-Liang

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential...

  17. A meta-analysis of risk factors for depression in adults and children after natural disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Bihan; Liu, Xu; Liu, Yuan; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

    2014-06-19

    A number of studies have shown a range of negative psychological symptoms (e.g. depression) after exposure to natural disasters. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for depression in both children and adults who have survived natural disasters. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsychInfo) were used to search for observational studies (case-control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies) about depression following natural disasters. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted independently by two authors. Thirty-one articles were included in the study, of which twenty included adult participants and eleven included child participants. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias tests were performed on the data. The prevalence of depression after natural disasters ranged from 5.8% to 54.0% in adults and from 7.5% to 44.8% in children. We found a number of risk factors for depression after exposure to natural disasters. For adults, the significant predictors were being female ;not married;holding religious beliefs; having poor education; prior trauma; experiencing fear, injury, or bereavement during the disaster; or losing employment or property, suffering house damage as a result of the disaster. For children, the significant predictors were prior trauma; being trapped during the disaster; experiencing injury, fear, or bereavement during the disaster; witnessing injury/death during the disaster; or having poor social support. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for depression in survivors of natural disasters. Further research is necessary to design interventions to improve the mental health of survivors of natural disasters.

  18. Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis has historically been developed for situations in which measured data about the overall reliability of a system are limited and expert knowledge is the best source of information available. There continue to be a number of important problem areas characterized by a lack of hard data. However, in other important problem areas the emergence of information technology has transformed the situation from one characterized by little data to one characterized by data overabundance. Natural disaster risk assessments for events impacting large-scale, critical infrastructure systems such as electric power distribution systems, transportation systems, water supply systems, and natural gas supply systems are important examples of problems characterized by data overabundance. There are often substantial amounts of information collected and archived about the behavior of these systems over time. Yet it can be difficult to effectively utilize these large data sets for risk assessment. Using this information for estimating the probability or consequences of system failure requires a different approach and analysis paradigm than risk analysis for data-poor systems does. Statistical learning theory, a diverse set of methods designed to draw inferences from large, complex data sets, can provide a basis for risk analysis for data-rich systems. This paper provides an overview of statistical learning theory methods and discusses their potential for greater use in risk analysis

  19. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  20. Nonlinear System Identification Using Neural Networks Trained with Natural Gradient Descent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibnkahla Mohamed

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We use natural gradient (NG learning neural networks (NNs for modeling and identifying nonlinear systems with memory. The nonlinear system is comprised of a discrete-time linear filter followed by a zero-memory nonlinearity . The NN model is composed of a linear adaptive filter followed by a two-layer memoryless nonlinear NN. A Kalman filter-based technique and a search-and-converge method have been employed for the NG algorithm. It is shown that the NG descent learning significantly outperforms the ordinary gradient descent and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM procedure in terms of convergence speed and mean squared error (MSE performance.

  1. Implanting inequality: empirical evidence of social and ethical risks of implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, Torin; Fisher, Jill A

    2010-10-01

    The aim of this study was to assess empirically the social and ethical risks associated with implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices. Qualitative research included observational studies in twenty-three U.S. hospitals that have implemented new patient identification systems and eighty semi-structured interviews about the social and ethical implications of new patient identification systems, including RFID implants. The study identified three primary social and ethical risks associated with RFID implants: (i) unfair prioritization of patients based on their participation in the system, (ii) diminished trust of patients by care providers, and (iii) endangerment of patients who misunderstand the capabilities of the systems. RFID implants may aggravate inequalities in access to care without any clear health benefits. This research underscores the importance of critically evaluating new healthcare technologies from the perspective of both normative ethics and empirical ethics.

  2. A systematic review of the risks factors associated with the onset and natural progression of hydrocephalus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephanie; Donnan, Jennifer; Morrissey, Andrea; Sikora, Lindsey; Bowen, Sonya; Collins, Kayla; MacDonald, Don

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to systematically assess and synthesize the world literature on risk factors for the onset and natural progression of hydrocephalus, thereby providing a basis for policy makers to identify appropriate risk management measures to mitigate the burden of disease in Canada. Evidence for risk factors was limited for both onset and progression. Two meta-analyses that examined a risk factor for onset met the inclusion criteria. One found a significant protective effect of prenatal vitamins among case control studies, but not cohort/randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The second found maternal obesity to be a significant risk factor for congenital hydrocephalus. Significant risk factors among 25 observational studies included: biological (multiple births, maternal parity, common cold with fever, maternal thyroid disease, family history, preterm birth, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, ischemic ECG changes, higher cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration following vestibular schwannoma); lifestyle (maternal obesity, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, maternal diabetes, maternal age), healthcare-related (caesarean section, interhospital transfer, drainage duration following subarachnoid hemorrhage, proximity to midline for craniectomy following traumatic brain injury); pharmaceutical (prenatal exposure to: tribenoside, metronidazole, anesthesia, opioids); and environmental (altitude, paternal occupation). Three studies reported on genetic risk factors: no significant associations were found. There are major gaps in the literature with respect to risk factors for the natural progression of hydrocephalus. Only two observational studies were included and three factors reported. Many risk factors for the onset of hydrocephalus have been studied; for most, evidence remains limited or inconclusive. More work is needed to confirm any causal associations and better inform policy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. A Hypothesis: Could Portable Natural Grass be a Risk Factor for Knee Injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orchard, John; Rodas, Gil; Til, Lluis; ArdevÒl, Jordi; Chivers, Ian

    2008-01-01

    Previous study has shown a likely link between increased shoe- surface traction and risk of knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury. Portable natural grass systems are being used more often in sport, but no study to date has investigated their relative safety. By their nature, they must have high resistance to falling apart and therefore newly laid systems may be at risk of creating excessive shoe-surface traction. This study describes two clusters of knee injuries (particularly non-contact ACL injuries), each occurring to players of one professional football team at single venue, using portable grass, in a short space of time. The first series included two ACL injuries, one posterolateral complex disruption and one lateral ligament tear occurring in two rugby league games on a portable bermudagrass surface in Brisbane, Australia. The second series included four non-contact ACL injuries over a period of ten weeks in professional soccer games on a portable Kentucky bluegrass/perennial ryegrass surface in Barcelona, Spain. Possible intrinsic risk factors are discussed but there was no common risk shared by the players. Although no measures of traction were made at the Brisbane venue, average rotational traction was measured towards the end of the injury cluster at Camp Nou, Barcelona, to be 48 Nm. Chance undoubtedly had a part to play in these clusters, but the only obvious common risk factor was play on a portable natural grass surface soon after it was laid. Further study is required to determine whether portable natural grass systems may exhibit high shoe-surface traction soon after being laid and whether this could be a risk factor for knee injury. Key pointsExcessive shoe-surface traction is a hypothesised risk factor for knee ligament injuries, including anterior cruciate ligament injuries.Portable natural grass systems (by their nature in order to prevent grass rolls or squares from falling apart) will tend to exhibit high resistance to tearing when first

  4. Post-Mastectomy and Phantom Breast Pain: Risk Factors, Natural History, and Impact on Quality of Life

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dworkin, Robert

    2003-01-01

    .... The primary aims of this research were to identify risk factors for these chronic pain syndromes following surgical procedures for breast cancer, characterize their natural history, and examine...

  5. Assessing DNA Barcodes for Species Identification in North American Reptiles and Amphibians in Natural History Collections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, E Anne; Hebert, Paul D N

    2016-01-01

    High rates of species discovery and loss have led to the urgent need for more rapid assessment of species diversity in the herpetofauna. DNA barcoding allows for the preliminary identification of species based on sequence divergence. Prior DNA barcoding work on reptiles and amphibians has revealed higher biodiversity counts than previously estimated due to cases of cryptic and undiscovered species. Past studies have provided DNA barcodes for just 14% of the North American herpetofauna, revealing the need for expanded coverage. This study extends the DNA barcode reference library for North American herpetofauna, assesses the utility of this approach in aiding species delimitation, and examines the correspondence between current species boundaries and sequence clusters designated by the BIN system. Sequences were obtained from 730 specimens, representing 274 species (43%) from the North American herpetofauna. Mean intraspecific divergences were 1% and 3%, while average congeneric sequence divergences were 16% and 14% in amphibians and reptiles, respectively. BIN assignments corresponded with current species boundaries in 79% of amphibians, 100% of turtles, and 60% of squamates. Deep divergences (>2%) were noted in 35% of squamate and 16% of amphibian species, and low divergences (reptiles and 23% of amphibians, patterns reflected in BIN assignments. Sequence recovery declined with specimen age, and variation in recovery success was noted among collections. Within collections, barcodes effectively flagged seven mislabeled tissues, and barcode fragments were recovered from five formalin-fixed specimens. This study demonstrates that DNA barcodes can effectively flag errors in museum collections, while BIN splits and merges reveal taxa belonging to deeply diverged or hybridizing lineages. This study is the first effort to compile a reference library of DNA barcodes for herpetofauna on a continental scale.

  6. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  7. Identification of Natural Compound Carnosol as a Novel TRPA1 Receptor Agonist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chenxi Zhai

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 (TRPA1 cation channel is one of the well-known targets for pain therapy. Herbal medicine is a rich source for new drugs and potentially useful therapeutic agents. To discover novel natural TRPA1 agonists, compounds isolated from Chinese herbs were screened using a cell-based calcium mobilization assay. Out of the 158 natural compounds derived from traditional Chinese herbal medicines, carnosol was identified as a novel agonist of TRPA1 with an EC50 value of 12.46 µM. And the agonistic effect of carnosol on TRPA1 could be blocked by A-967079, a selective TRPA1 antagonist. Furthermore, the specificity of carnosol was verified as it showed no significant effects on two other typical targets of TRP family member: TRPM8 and TRPV3. Carnosol exhibited anti-inflammatory and anti-nociceptive properties; the activation of TRPA1 might be responsible for the modulation of inflammatory nociceptive transmission. Collectively, our findings indicate that carnosol is a new anti-nociceptive agent targeting TRPA1 that can be used to explore further biological role in pain therapy.

  8. Identification of the plants use as natural herbal shampoo in Manipur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S R; Phurailatpam, A K; Senjam, P

    2014-01-01

    A field survey was conducted in the year, 2011 - 12 in Imphal valley of Manipur, on the use of herbs as ingredient sources for the preparation of traditional natural herbal shampoo referred to as 'Chinghi', by Meitei community. Methodological field survey and personal interview of local people aged between 30-70 years of both sexes using standard questionnaires were carried out to collect information on the plants use in the herbal shampoo preparation. The survey revealed the therapeutic application of 35 plant species representing 28 genera and 18 families available in the Imphal valley. Tree species contributed immensely, yielding 38%, while herbs 32%, shrubs 27%, and climbing shrubs 3%, respectively being the record of the total number of plants used as ingredient in herbal shampoo preparation. These natural shampoos are used for a wide range of common hair care like anti-ageing of the hair, blackness, shininess and smoothness of the hair. It is prepared from young leaves and tender stalk of shoot of trees or shrubs, or whole plant of the herbs and fresh fruits boiled with local sticky rice water locally called 'Chinghi'. Fermented lime peel is also used as a herbal shampoo. The study shows details of their scientific, common, and local names, including their family, parts used, habit of the plants, and the benefit to the hair health as a whole.

  9. Identification of natural lactoylcholine in lactic acid bacteria-fermented food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Kozo; Okitsu, Sho; Ishida, Ryuya; Tian, Su; Igari, Naoki; Amano, Yoshihiko

    2016-06-15

    Acetylcholine (AcCh) is a major neurotransmitter and an agonist of nicotinic and muscarinic receptors in non-neuronal systems. Artificially synthesized lactoylcholine (LaCh) has potent nicotinic activity equal to that of AcCh. In this study, we report the isolation and purification of natural AcCh and LaCh from a lactic-fermented food known to reduce blood pressure. To our knowledge, we are the first to isolate natural LaCh. The choline esters were isolated using a novel purification procedure combining a weak cation-exchange cartridge with ODS and pentafluorophenyl HPLC columns, and the structure of LaCh was identified via various analyses. Assessment of D- and L-LaCh showed that the isolated LaCh was an enantiomer mixture with a D/L ratio of 1.6. D-LaCh induced vasorelaxation of thoracic aortas from spontaneously hypertensive rats (EC50=3.83×10(-7) M), while L-LaCh did not. Our results suggest that choline esters could be new functional ingredients in lactic-fermented foods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Identification of Natural Infections in Sheep/Goats with HoBi-like Pestiviruses in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, H; Kan, Y; Yao, L; Leng, C; Tang, Q; Ji, J; Sun, S

    2016-10-01

    The natural infections of HoBi-like pestiviruses in cattle have been reported in South America, Europe and Asia. In China, although the detections of HoBi-like pestivirus have been reported, the epidemiological investigation was limited. From January 2014 to October 2015, several flocks of sheep/goats in Henan province in central China suffered respiratory diseases which were recovered slowly after antibiotics treatment. To test whether it is the HoBi-like pestivirus caused this symptom, 49 serum samples and 22 nasal swabs were then collected for analysis by serology and RT-PCR. Serological result revealed that prevalence of pestivirus in small ruminants was 12.2% (6/49) in central China. Sequence analysis of partial 5'-UTR nucleotides of pestivirus-positive samples suggested that HoBi-like pestivirus might have circulated in sheep/goats of China for a period and have evolved into new genotype clusters. It is apparent that the study provides the molecular evidence of natural infections in goat/sheep species with HoBi-like pestiviruses in China. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  11. Review of research on identification of factors influencing social response to technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1977-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned. The social response to plans for further technological development has often taken the form of demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks, and consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for interdisciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to allow the balancing of complex technical data with measures of the corresponding social values. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision-making are summarized as background for the introduction of formal decision methodologies. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. A pilot application to nuclear power indicated that, for the subjects tested, attitudes pro and con were primarily determined by strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Symbolic aspects of the nuclear controversy are reviewed, including psychological associations with nuclear weapons. It is suggested that nuclear energy is providing a forum to evaluate a wide range of social issues, perhaps playing a symbolic role in a dialogue about the shape and direction of a technologically-determined future. (author)

  12. Identification of Elderly Falling Risk by Balance Tests Under Dual Tasks Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Aslankhani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to identify elderly fallers and non-fallers by balance test under dual tasks conditions. Methods & Materials: This study was an analyze-comparative study. Subjects were from three park of Tehran. Subjects were 20 older adults with outhistory of falls (aged 75.95±6.28 years and 21 older adults with a history of 2 or more falls in the previous one year (aged 72.50±7.31 Years . All subjects performed Timed Up & Go test under 3 conditions (TimedUp & Go, Timed Up & Go with numbers counter randomly [TUG cognitive], and Timed Up & Go while carrying a full cup of water [TUG manual]. A multivariate analysis of variance and logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: The results showed significant difference between elderly fallers and non fallers in fall risk composed dependent variable (P=0.0005, as the non fallers had greater score than the elderly fallers. Also, results showed that TUG cognitive has prediction capacity of elderly fall (P=0.013. Conclusion: Consequently, balance under cognitive dual task conditions could be useful method in identification of risk of falling and planning dual task exercise program and physiotherapy to preventfalls.

  13. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, Francois

    2005-01-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings

  14. Toxicovigilance: a new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, François

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  15. Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

  16. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  17. Ecological risk assessment and natural resource management on the Outer Continental Shelf

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeke, G.; Roscigno, P.F.

    1993-01-01

    Since 1988 beginning with the Drilling Impact Assessment Task Force, Minerals Management Service (MMS) has used formal risk analysis methodologies in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the potential impact of gas and oil activities son natural resources. In the process, a list of assumptions, critical for the assessment of potential impacts, was generated. These assumptions were incorporated into a scenario where several levels of certainty described the hazards in terms of expected frequency of effects and the seriousness of the consequences. A risk matrix was generated from these assumptions and was used to generate a risk assessment for the various impact-producing factors on ecological endpoints. Recommendations for risk management were also provided so that decision-makers were given insight into acceptable/unacceptable levels of risk. This process insured that those issues with the highest potential impact were given the highest priority in terms of resources. One of the most important aspect so f the development of a risk assessment was determining the frequency of effects of the impact-producing factors. A paucity of data concerning the effects of impact-producing factors on estuarine and marine ecosystems remains the primary limiting factor in the development of ecological risk assessments. Presented here is a broad outline of the risk assessment methodology using chemosynthetic communities found in the Gulf of Mexico as an example

  18. Comprehensive Identification of Immunodominant Proteins of Brucella abortus and Brucella melitensis Using Antibodies in the Sera from Naturally Infected Hosts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamal Wareth

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Brucellosis is a debilitating zoonotic disease that affects humans and animals. The diagnosis of brucellosis is challenging, as accurate species level identification is not possible with any of the currently available serology-based diagnostic methods. The present study aimed at identifying Brucella (B. species-specific proteins from the closely related species B. abortus and B. melitensis using sera collected from naturally infected host species. Unlike earlier reported investigations with either laboratory-grown species or vaccine strains, in the present study, field strains were utilized for analysis. The label-free quantitative proteomic analysis of the naturally isolated strains of these two closely related species revealed 402 differentially expressed proteins, among which 63 and 103 proteins were found exclusively in the whole cell extracts of B. abortus and B. melitensis field strains, respectively. The sera from four different naturally infected host species, i.e., cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goat were applied to identify the immune-binding protein spots present in the whole protein extracts from the isolated B. abortus and B. melitensis field strains and resolved on two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. Comprehensive analysis revealed that 25 proteins of B. abortus and 20 proteins of B. melitensis were distinctly immunoreactive. Dihydrodipicolinate synthase, glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and lactate/malate dehydrogenase from B. abortus, amino acid ABC transporter substrate-binding protein from B. melitensis and fumarylacetoacetate hydrolase from both species were reactive with the sera of all the tested naturally infected host species. The identified proteins could be used for the design of serological assays capable of detecting pan-Brucella, B. abortus- and B. melitensis-specific antibodies.

  19. Comprehensive Identification of Immunodominant Proteins of Brucella abortus and Brucella melitensis Using Antibodies in the Sera from Naturally Infected Hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wareth, Gamal; Eravci, Murat; Weise, Christoph; Roesler, Uwe; Melzer, Falk; Sprague, Lisa D; Neubauer, Heinrich; Murugaiyan, Jayaseelan

    2016-04-30

    Brucellosis is a debilitating zoonotic disease that affects humans and animals. The diagnosis of brucellosis is challenging, as accurate species level identification is not possible with any of the currently available serology-based diagnostic methods. The present study aimed at identifying Brucella (B.) species-specific proteins from the closely related species B. abortus and B. melitensis using sera collected from naturally infected host species. Unlike earlier reported investigations with either laboratory-grown species or vaccine strains, in the present study, field strains were utilized for analysis. The label-free quantitative proteomic analysis of the naturally isolated strains of these two closely related species revealed 402 differentially expressed proteins, among which 63 and 103 proteins were found exclusively in the whole cell extracts of B. abortus and B. melitensis field strains, respectively. The sera from four different naturally infected host species, i.e., cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goat were applied to identify the immune-binding protein spots present in the whole protein extracts from the isolated B. abortus and B. melitensis field strains and resolved on two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. Comprehensive analysis revealed that 25 proteins of B. abortus and 20 proteins of B. melitensis were distinctly immunoreactive. Dihydrodipicolinate synthase, glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and lactate/malate dehydrogenase from B. abortus, amino acid ABC transporter substrate-binding protein from B. melitensis and fumarylacetoacetate hydrolase from both species were reactive with the sera of all the tested naturally infected host species. The identified proteins could be used for the design of serological assays capable of detecting pan-Brucella, B. abortus- and B. melitensis-specific antibodies.

  20. Pro-active approaches to the identification of emerging risks in the food chain: Retrospective case studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Kleter, G.A.; Kreft, F.; Leeuwen, van P.; Waalwijk, C.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    In this report six case studies are carried out on food-safety and animal-health crises that have occurred in the recent past. The aim is to learn from these cases if and how the identification of emerging food-safety (and animal-health) risks can be improved by adopting a (more) pro-active approach

  1. Identification of the timing-of-events model with multiple competing exit risks from single-spell data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drepper, Bettina; Effraimidis, G.

    2016-01-01

    The identification result of the timing-of-events model (Abbring and Van den Berg, 2003b) is extended to a model with several competing exit risk equations. This extension allows e.g. to simultaneously identify the different effects a benefit sanction has on the rate of finding work and leaving t...

  2. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

    2013-07-01

    The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

  3. Does natural disaster influence people's risk preference and trust? An experiment from cyclone prone coast of Bangladesh

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan

    2014-01-01

    Natural catastrophic events may have enormous negative effects on economic growth. People affected by the disaster might be risk averse because of anxiety about the future uncertainty of economic returns. The purpose of this empirical study is to highlight the effect of natural disasters...... (specifically coastal cyclonic storm surges) on individuals' risk preference and level of trust. This study also aims to disentangle risk propensity from trust. It reveals that natural disasters can significantly reduce people's risk-taking attitudes, whereas the catastrophic events have no influence...... on trusting behavior. The study suggests that risk attitudes are significantly negatively correlated with trust....

  4. Buying natural gas in the spot market: risks related to the natural gas industry globalization; Aquisicao de gas natural em bases 'spot': riscos associados a globalizacao da industria do gas natural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathias, Melissa Cristina [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Szklo, Alexandre Salem [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico

    2008-07-01

    The growth of the international natural gas trade during the last decade resulted in the expectation that this product would be traded as a commodity. This expectation created a boom in the investments related to the commercialization of natural gas between borders, especially in the distinct segments of the chain of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Different agents launched themselves into liquefaction and regasification enterprises, and the ordering of ships also showed significant growth. Despite that, the natural gas market still cannot be considered global, and international gas transactions are primarily done within regional markets. This article investigates the challenges posed to the constitution of a global natural gas market. These challenges represent risks to the commercialization of this product in spot bases, for the agents that launch themselves into projects to export or import LNG to be commercialized through short term contracts in the international market for this product. (author)

  5. The Nature and Assessment of Systemic Risk in Terms of Liquidity of the Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavreniuk Vladyslav V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the nature of systemic risk as a threat to the financial stability of the banking system and develop analytical tools to assess its impact on the banking system in terms of its liquidity. To solve the tasks assigned, there used general scientific and specific methods, such as: logical and dialectical method, mathematical and graphical one. Based on the generalization, analysis and comparison of different interpretations, there clarified the concept of «systemic risk» as a risk generated by financial institutions or individual sectors through the implementation of the mechanism of risk transmission, achieving significant scale of distribution and adversely affecting the stability of the financial system and the real sector of economy. There identified key aspects of systemic risk: a systemic risk is not a sum of all individual risks of financial institutions; b spreads through the channels of interconnectedness between financial institutions; c is a result of accumulated structural imbalances; d affects the stability of the financial/banking system, public confidence and the real sector of economy. Analytical tools for estimation of the bank’s contribution to the systemic liquidity risk on the basis of which it is determined that the first place in terms of the effect on the aggregate systemic risk of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system is occupied by banks of Group I, the second place — by Privatbank, the third, fourth, fifth places — by banks in Group II — Oschadbank, Ukreximbank. It is found that it is systemically important state-owned banks that have a significant impact on systemic liquidity risk. It is determined that the probability of default of a leading systemically important bank could result in considerable cumulative losses for the entire banking system and real economy. The prospects of further research are the development of tools for systemic risk assessment with respect to

  6. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  7. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  8. A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco; Caramella, Davide; Vano, Eliseo; Semelka, Richard C.; Picano, Eugenio

    2012-01-01

    Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient’ s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider–patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

  9. A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy); Caramella, Davide [Radiology Department, Pisa University, Pisa (Italy); Vano, Eliseo [San Carlos Hospital, Radiology Department, Complutense University, Madrid (Spain); Semelka, Richard C. [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Picano, Eugenio, E-mail: picano@ifc.cnr.it [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy)

    2012-11-15

    Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient' s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider-patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

  10. Leakage Identification Of Volcanic Product Pollutant Of ijen Crater Using Natural Isotop Deuterium And Oxiren-18

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susiati, Heni; Sjarmufni, A.; S.B.S, Yarianto; Suprijadi; Wibagyo

    2001-01-01

    Community surrounding the Asembagus Sugar Fabric guess that the factory has polluted water body of Banyuputih River. Leakage detection of the pollutant has been to prove that guess using variation of natural isotop composition of Deuterium and Oxygen-18. Sampling was carried out at Ijen crater area, Banyupahit River and surrounding the sugar factory and also Belawan Fresh water source. Isotop analysis was done-by mass spectrometer. Based on analysis result have been gotten information that each location have vary of isotop value, Isotop concentration at Ijen crater was relative high so isotop concentration of Banyupahit river was also relative high although rather lower than lien Crater. Based on another interpretation, there are correlation at isotope concentration between Ijen crater and Banyupahit River

  11. Mode shape and natural frequency identification for seismic analysis from background vibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhan, S.; Wozniak, Z.

    1986-10-01

    Background vibration in a CANDU plant can be used to determine the dynamic characteristics of major items of equipment, such as calandria, the fuelling machines and the primary heat transport pumps. These dynamic characteristics can then be used to verify the seismic response of the equipment which, at present, is based on theoretical models only. The feasibility and basic theory of this new approach (which uses accelerations measured at several points on a structure and does not require knowledge of the source of excitation) was established in Phase I of the study. This report is based on Phase II in which the methods of analysis developed in Phase I were improved and verified experimentally. A Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm was incorporated and an interactive curve fitting technique was developed to obtain the dynamic characteristics in the form of natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios. The method is now available for use at a CANDU plant

  12. Accurate Identification of Fatty Liver Disease in Data Warehouse Utilizing Natural Language Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redman, Joseph S; Natarajan, Yamini; Hou, Jason K; Wang, Jingqi; Hanif, Muzammil; Feng, Hua; Kramer, Jennifer R; Desiderio, Roxanne; Xu, Hua; El-Serag, Hashem B; Kanwal, Fasiha

    2017-10-01

    Natural language processing is a powerful technique of machine learning capable of maximizing data extraction from complex electronic medical records. We utilized this technique to develop algorithms capable of "reading" full-text radiology reports to accurately identify the presence of fatty liver disease. Abdominal ultrasound, computerized tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging reports were retrieved from the Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse from a random national sample of 652 patients. Radiographic fatty liver disease was determined by manual review by two physicians and verified with an expert radiologist. A split validation method was utilized for algorithm development. For all three imaging modalities, the algorithms could identify fatty liver disease with >90% recall and precision, with F-measures >90%. These algorithms could be used to rapidly screen patient records to establish a large cohort to facilitate epidemiological and clinical studies and examine the clinic course and outcomes of patients with radiographic hepatic steatosis.

  13. Identification of some heavy metals and natural radionuclides levels in Mzerib lake environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Nimeh, M.; Al-Rayyes, A.; Al-Masri, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    Some trace metals (Cd, Pb, Cu, and Zn) and natural radionuclides ( 238 U, 210 Po, 210 Pb) were measured in environmental samples from Mzerib lake during 1998. This will help in evaluating the water quality and the effects of agricultural and humanitarian activities on the lake environment. Results showed that the lake water is of a good quality. Trace metals levels in water, sediments, freshwater clam (Unio terminals), and fish (cyprinus Cario) fall within the accepted range, although they were higher in some sites due to the presence of a potential source for pollution (e.g. the restaurant). The clam soft tissue samples showed the highest levels of Cd. Carp fish gonads and gills also showed high levels of cadmium, while Carp fish samples showed the highest levels of zinc. radionuclides levels were low and in agreement with levels reported in previous local and international studies. (authors)

  14. In-situ identification of iron electrocoagulation speciation and application for natural organic matter (NOM) removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrawski, Kristian L; Mohseni, Madjid

    2013-09-15

    In this work, iron speciation in electrocoagulation (EC) was studied to determine the impact of operating parameters on natural organic matter (NOM) removal from natural water. Two electrochemical EC parameters, current density (i) and charge loading rate (CLR), were investigated. Variation of these parameters led to a near unity current efficiency (φ = 0.957 ± 0.03), at any combination of i in a range of 1-25 mA/cm(2) and CLR in a range of 12-300 C/L/min. Higher i and CLR led to a higher bulk pH and limited the amount of dissolved oxygen (DO) reduced at the cathode surface due to mass transfer limitations. A low i (1 mA/cm(2)) and intermediate CLR (60 C/L/min) resulted in low bulk DO (<2.5 mg/L), where green rust (GR) was identified by in-situ Raman spectroscopy as the primary crystalline electrochemical product. Longer electrolysis times at higher i led to magnetite (Fe3O4) formation. Both higher (300 C/L/min) and lower (12 C/L/min) CLR values led to increased DO and/or increased pH, with lepidocrocite (γ-FeOOH) as the only crystalline species observed. The NOM removal of the three identified species was compared, with conditions leading to GR formation showing the greatest dissolved organic carbon removal, and highest removal of the low apparent molecular weight (<550 Da) chromophoric NOM fraction, determined by high performance size exclusion chromatography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Smith

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators, fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1 the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2 the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.

  16. CLARITY – ChiLdhood Arthritis Risk factor Identification sTudY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Justine A

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aetiology of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA is largely unknown. We have established a JIA biobank in Melbourne, Australia called CLARITY – ChiLdhood Arthritis Risk factor Identification sTudY, with the broad aim of identifying genomic and environmental disease risk factors. We present here study protocols, and a comparison of socio-demographic, pregnancy, birth and early life characteristics of cases and controls collected over the first 3 years of the study. Methods Cases are children aged ≤18 years with a diagnosis of JIA by 16 years. Controls are healthy children aged ≤18 years, born in the state of Victoria, undergoing a minor elective surgical procedure. Participant families provide clinical, epidemiological and environmental data via questionnaire, and a blood sample is collected. Results Clinical characteristics of cases (n = 262 are similar to those previously reported. Demographically, cases were from families of higher socio-economic status. After taking this into account, the residual pregnancy and perinatal profiles of cases were similar to control children. No case-control differences in breastfeeding commencement or duration were detected, nor was there evidence of increased case exposure to tobacco smoke in utero. At interview, cases were less likely to be exposed to active parental smoking, but disease-related changes to parent behaviour may partly underlie this. Conclusions We show that, after taking into account socio-economic status, CLARITY cases and controls are well matched on basic epidemiological characteristics. CLARITY represents a new study platform with which to generate new knowledge as to the environmental and biological risk factors for JIA.

  17. Differential Dynamic Evolutionary Model of Emergency Financial Service Supply Chain in Natural Disaster Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shujian Ma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A government-market-public partnership (GMPP could be a feasible arrangement for providing insurance coverage for natural disaster. Firstly, we put forward GMPP management mode. Secondly, the emergency financial service supply chain for natural disaster risk is built from the view of supply chain. Finally, the objective of this paper is to obtain insights into the cooperative and competitive relationship in GMPP system. We establish the cooperative and competitive differential dynamic evolutionary models and prove the existence of equilibrium solutions in order to solve the coordination problems. In conclusion, the equilibrium solutions can be achieved among the insurers, the operating governments, and the public.

  18. Identification and mapping the high nature value farmland by the comparison of a combined and species approaches in Tuscany, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Lazzerini

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Low-intensity farming systems play a crucial role in nature conservation by preserving 50% of habitats, flora and fauna occurring in Europe. For this reason the identification, classification and mapping of high nature value farmlands (HNVfs is becoming an overriding concern. In this study, two different approaches, namely combined approach and species-based approach, were used to spatially identify HNVfs (type 1, 2 and 3 across Tuscany region (Italy. The first approach calculated different indicators (extensive practices indicator, crop diversity indicator, landscape element indicator at 1×1 km grid cell spatial resolution using pre-existent spatial datasets integrated within a global information system environment. Whilst, the speciesbased approach relied on a pre-existent regional naturalistic inventory. All indicators and the resulting HNVfs derived from the two approaches were aggregated at municipality level. Despite some difference, the two adopted approaches intercepted spatially the same HNVfs areas, accounting for 35% of the total utilised agricultural area of the region. Just 16% of HNVfs resulted located inside protected areas, thus under current conservation and protection management actions. Finally, HNVfs of the Tuscany region were spatially aggregated in four relevant agro-ecosystems by taking into consideration the cropping systems and the landscape elements’ characteristics peculiar in the region.

  19. Identification of fall risk factors in older adult emergency department patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Christopher R; Scheatzle, Mark D; D'Antonio, Joyce A; Ricci, Paul T; Coben, Jeffrey H

    2009-03-01

    Falls represent an increasingly frequent source of injury among older adults. Identification of fall risk factors in geriatric patients may permit the effective utilization of scarce preventative resources. The objective of this study was to identify independent risk factors associated with an increased 6-month fall risk in community-dwelling older adults discharged from the emergency department (ED). This was a prospective observational study with a convenience sampling of noninstitutionalized elders presenting to an urban teaching hospital ED who did not require hospital admission. Interviews were conducted to determine the presence of fall risk factors previously described in non-ED populations. Subjects were followed monthly for 6 months through postcard or telephone contact to identify subsequent falls. Univariate and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the association of risk factors with 6-month fall incidence. A total of 263 patients completed the survey, and 161 (61%) completed the entire 6 months of follow-up. Among the 263 enrolled, 39% reported a fall in the preceding year, including 15% with more than one fall and 22% with injurious falls. Among those completing the 6 months of follow-up, 14% reported at least one fall. Cox regression analysis identified four factors associated with falls during the 6-month follow-up: nonhealing foot sores (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.73 to 7.95), a prior fall history (HR = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.32 to 5.18), inability to cut one's own toenails (HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.04 to 4.01), and self-reported depression (HR = 1.72, 95% CI = 0.83 to 3.55). Falls, recurrent falls, and injurious falls in community-dwelling elder ED patients being evaluated for non-fall-related complaints occur at least as frequently as in previously described outpatient cohorts. Nonhealing foot sores, self-reported depression, not clipping one's own toenails, and previous falls are all associated with falls after

  20. Screening and identification of novel biologically active natural compounds [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Newman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available With the advent of very rapid and cheap genome analyses and the linkage of these plus microbial metabolomics to potential compound structures came the realization that there was an immense sea of novel agents to be mined and tested. In addition, it is now recognized that there is significant microbial involvement in many natural products isolated from “nominally non-microbial sources”. This short review covers the current screening methods that have evolved and one might even be tempted to say “devolved” in light of the realization that target-based screens had problems when the products entered clinical testing, with off-target effects being the major ones. Modern systems include, but are not limited to, screening in cell lines utilizing very modern techniques (a high content screen that are designed to show interactions within cells when treated with an “agent”. The underlying principle(s used in such systems dated back to unpublished attempts in the very early 1980s by the pharmaceutical industry to show toxic interactions within animal cells by using automated light microscopy. Though somewhat successful, the technology was not adequate for any significant commercialization. Somewhat later, mammalian cell lines that were “genetically modified” to alter signal transduction cascades, either up or down, and frequently linked to luciferase readouts, were then employed in a 96-well format. In the case of microbes, specific resistance parameters were induced in isogenic cell lines from approximately the mid-1970s. In the latter two cases, comparisons against parent and sibling cell lines were used in order that a rapid determination of potential natural product “hits” could be made. Obviously, all of these assay systems could also be, and were, used for synthetic molecules. These methods and their results have led to a change in what the term “screening for bioactivity” means. In practice, versions of phenotypic screening

  1. Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahin, Cem; Shahidehpour, Mohammad; Erkmen, Ismet

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for a generation company (GENCO). ► Water inflow, wind, and NG interruption uncertainties are considered. ► Diversification of assets and bilateral contracts enhance payoff and decrease financial risk. ► The utilization of NG in the risk-neutral GENCO case increases as the wind uncertainty increases. ► NG utilization is lowered by the algorithm to decrease in risk-considered case. -- Abstract: This paper studies a generating company (GENCO)’s midterm (a few months to a year) scheduling payoffs and risks in volatile operating conditions. The proposed algorithm considers the integration of intermittent wind units into a GENCO’s generation assets and coordinates the GENCO’s hourly wind generation schedule with that of natural gas (NG) units (with volatile gas prices) and hydro units (with water inflow forecast) for maximizing the GENCO’s payoff. The proposed midterm GENCO model applies market price forecasts to the risk-constrained stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for calculating the GENCO’s risk in energy and ancillary services markets. The proposed PBUC minimizes the cost of (a) NG contracts, storage, startup and shutdown, (b) startup and shutdown of cascaded hydro units, and (c) penalty for defaulting on the scheduled power delivery. Simulation results show that the diversification of generating assets including bilateral contracts (BCs) could enhance the GENCO’s midterm planning by increasing the expected payoff and decreasing the financial risk.

  2. The identification and description of the management units of the Goegap Nature Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helga Rosch

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Goegap Nature Reserve, near Springbok, is situated in the floral paradise of Namaqualand. This 15 000 ha reserve falls within the Namaqualand Broken Veld and in the transition zone between this Veld type and the False Succulent Karoo. Otherwise, it could be said that the reserve falls within the Upland Succulent Karoo and the transition zone between this vegetation type and the Bushmanland vegetation type. With the use of stratified aerial photographs of the reserve, random sample plots were placed within each homogeneous physiographic-physionomic unit and 284 releves were compiled in September 1998. With the use of the BBPC computer program, the resulting TWINSPAN split the data into two tables, one predominantly for the Plains and one for the Rocky Hills. After refining these tables, 13 plant communities were identified. These communities, together with the stratified aerial photographs, land type and habitat information were used to determine ten management units for the reserve. These units will be used in effective management and monitoring on the reserve. Table 1 and 2 will be uploaded as a supplementary file in due course.

  3. Identification of Ganoderma Disease Resistance Loci Using Natural Field Infection of an Oil Palm Multiparental Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien Tisné

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-parental populations are promising tools for identifying quantitative disease resistance loci. Stem rot caused by Ganoderma boninense is a major threat to palm oil production, with yield losses of up to 80% prompting premature replantation of palms. There is evidence of genetic resistance sources, but the genetic architecture of Ganoderma resistance has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to identify Ganoderma resistance loci using an oil palm multi-parental population derived from nine major founders of ongoing breeding programs. A total of 1200 palm trees of the multi-parental population was planted in plots naturally infected by Ganoderma, and their health status was assessed biannually over 25 yr. The data were treated as survival data, and modeled using the Cox regression model, including a spatial effect to take the spatial component in the spread of Ganoderma into account. Based on the genotypes of 757 palm trees out of the 1200 planted, and on pedigree information, resistance loci were identified using a random effect with identity-by-descent kinship matrices as covariance matrices in the Cox model. Four Ganoderma resistance loci were identified, two controlling the occurrence of the first Ganoderma symptoms, and two the death of palm trees, while favorable haplotypes were identified among a major gene pool for ongoing breeding programs. This study implemented an efficient and flexible QTL mapping approach, and generated unique valuable information for the selection of oil palm varieties resistant to Ganoderma disease.

  4. Identification of Ganoderma Disease Resistance Loci Using Natural Field Infection of an Oil Palm Multiparental Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisné, Sébastien; Pomiès, Virginie; Riou, Virginie; Syahputra, Indra; Cochard, Benoît; Denis, Marie

    2017-01-01

    Multi-parental populations are promising tools for identifying quantitative disease resistance loci. Stem rot caused by Ganoderma boninense is a major threat to palm oil production, with yield losses of up to 80% prompting premature replantation of palms. There is evidence of genetic resistance sources, but the genetic architecture of Ganoderma resistance has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to identify Ganoderma resistance loci using an oil palm multi-parental population derived from nine major founders of ongoing breeding programs. A total of 1200 palm trees of the multi-parental population was planted in plots naturally infected by Ganoderma, and their health status was assessed biannually over 25 yr. The data were treated as survival data, and modeled using the Cox regression model, including a spatial effect to take the spatial component in the spread of Ganoderma into account. Based on the genotypes of 757 palm trees out of the 1200 planted, and on pedigree information, resistance loci were identified using a random effect with identity-by-descent kinship matrices as covariance matrices in the Cox model. Four Ganoderma resistance loci were identified, two controlling the occurrence of the first Ganoderma symptoms, and two the death of palm trees, while favorable haplotypes were identified among a major gene pool for ongoing breeding programs. This study implemented an efficient and flexible QTL mapping approach, and generated unique valuable information for the selection of oil palm varieties resistant to Ganoderma disease. PMID:28592650

  5. Loving Nature From the Inside Out: A Biophilia Matrix Identification Strategy for Designers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Beth; Marshall-Baker, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The development of the Biophilic Design Matrix (BDM) was to aid designers or other specialists in identifying and quantifying biophilic features through a visual inventory of interior spaces. With mounting evidence to support the healing attributes of biophilic environments, we propose a method to identify biophilic content within interior spaces. Such a strategy offers much promise to the advancement of restorative environments. The BDM was based on Stephen Kellert's biophilic design attribute list and modified to be appropriate for interior environments, specifically children's healthcare spaces. A photo-ethnographic documentation method of 24 child life play spaces within a South Atlantic state was used to determine whether the BDM could reliably reveal biophilic features (listed as attributes by Kellert in 2008). This matrix appears useful in documenting biophilia within the pediatric healthcare context, attesting to the usability and functionality of the BDM for this special population. Specifically, the BDM revealed that biophilic attributes were constantly present in some spaces while others were completely absent. When a biophilic attribute was present, the BDM indicated that they varied considerably in type and occurrence. Thus, use of the BDM in the hospital areas designed for patient recreation and play successfully provided a visual inventory of biophilic features as well as the frequency of application. Further use of the BDM as a tool for strategizing biophilic feature inclusion can thus increase the connections available with nature in the interior, beneficial for optimizing health and wellness. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Identification of Ganoderma Disease Resistance Loci Using Natural Field Infection of an Oil Palm Multiparental Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisné, Sébastien; Pomiès, Virginie; Riou, Virginie; Syahputra, Indra; Cochard, Benoît; Denis, Marie

    2017-06-07

    Multi-parental populations are promising tools for identifying quantitative disease resistance loci. Stem rot caused by Ganoderma boninense is a major threat to palm oil production, with yield losses of up to 80% prompting premature replantation of palms. There is evidence of genetic resistance sources, but the genetic architecture of Ganoderma resistance has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to identify Ganoderma resistance loci using an oil palm multi-parental population derived from nine major founders of ongoing breeding programs. A total of 1200 palm trees of the multi-parental population was planted in plots naturally infected by Ganoderma , and their health status was assessed biannually over 25 yr. The data were treated as survival data, and modeled using the Cox regression model, including a spatial effect to take the spatial component in the spread of Ganoderma into account. Based on the genotypes of 757 palm trees out of the 1200 planted, and on pedigree information, resistance loci were identified using a random effect with identity-by-descent kinship matrices as covariance matrices in the Cox model. Four Ganoderma resistance loci were identified, two controlling the occurrence of the first Ganoderma symptoms, and two the death of palm trees, while favorable haplotypes were identified among a major gene pool for ongoing breeding programs. This study implemented an efficient and flexible QTL mapping approach, and generated unique valuable information for the selection of oil palm varieties resistant to Ganoderma disease. Copyright © 2017 Tisné et al.

  7. Identification and characterization of natural pipe systems in forested tropical soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovi, Renata Cristina; Moreira, Cesar Augusto; Stucchi Boschi, Raquel; Cooper, Miguel

    2017-04-01

    Erosive processes on soil surface have been well studied and comprehended by several researchers, however little is known about subsurface erosive processes (piping). Piping is a type of subsurface erosion caused by water flowing in the subsurface and is still considered one of the most difficult erosive processes to be studied. Several processes have been considered as resposible for subsurface erosion and their interaction is complex and difficult to be studied separately. Surface investigations on their own may underestimate the erosion processes, due to the possible occurrence of subsurface processes that are not yet exposed on the surface. The network of subsurface processes should also be understood to better control erosion. Conservation practices that focus on water runoff control may be inefficient if the subsurface flow is not considered. In this study, we aimed to identify and characterize subsurface cavities in the field, as well as understand the network of these cavities, by using geophysical methods (electrical tomography). The study area is situated at the Experimental Station of Tupi, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The soil of the area was classified as Hapludults. The area presents several erosive features, ranging from laminar to permanent gullies and subsurface erosions. The geophysical equipment used was the Terrameter LS resistivity meter, manufactured by ABEM Instruments. The method of electrical tomography was efficient to detect collapsed and non-collapsed pipes. The results presented valuable information to detect areas of risk.

  8. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  9. Thermotolerant yeasts capable of producing bioethanol: isolation from natural fermented sources, identification and characterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Azam Talukder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the demands of biofuels have increased, because of their significant role in reducing various pollutants created by fossil fuels. Here, we have collected 25 samples containing various thermotolerant microorganisms from the nine natural fermented sources of Bangladesh, such as Boiled potato (Bp, Decomposed foods (Df, Municipal liquid waste (Mlw, Municipal solid waste (Msw, Sugarcane juice (Sc, Pantavat (Pv, Sugar molasses (Sm, Tari (Tari and Watermelon juice (Wm for bioethanol production. Among them, 18 isolates are capable of producing bioethanol. Cultural, morphological, physiological, biochemical and genetic analyses were carried out under various physiological conditions. Ethanol fermentation was checked by different carbon sources, temperatures and pH. All of the isolates could grow well in the medium containing Dextrose and Arabinose and only two strains Pv-1 and Bp-2 could ferment Xylose as a sole carbon source. At 42 °C, the highest ethanol concentration 6.58% (v/v was obtained by a strain Wm-1 isolated from Watermelon juice. At 37 °C, maximal ethanol concentrations of 6.74% (v/v, 6.50% (v/v and 6.22% (v/v were obtained by the strains Bp-2, Wm-l and Pv-1, respectively. Among the various pH tested, the highest ethanol concentration 6.6% (v/v was obtained at pH 4.5 by a strain named Tari-2. Finally, yeast 26S rDNA sequencing information identified the strains Sc-2 as Saccharomyces cerevisiae Pv-2, Tari-2 and Df-1 as Pichia kudriavzevii, Mlw-l and Bp-2 as Candida tropicalis, Pv-1 as Pichia guilliermondii and Df-2 as Candida rugosa.

  10. Identification of molecular pathways affected by pterostilbene, a natural dimethylether analog of resveratrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duke Stephen O

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pterostilbene, a naturally occurring phenolic compound produced by agronomically important plant genera such as Vitis and Vacciunium, is a phytoalexin exhibiting potent antifungal activity. Additionally, recent studies have demonstrated several important pharmacological properties associated with pterostilbene. Despite this, a systematic study of the effects of pterostilbene on eukaryotic cells at the molecular level has not been previously reported. Thus, the aim of the present study was to identify the cellular pathways affected by pterostilbene by performing transcript profiling studies, employing the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Methods S. cerevisiae strain S288C was exposed to pterostilbene at the IC50 concentration (70 μM for one generation (3 h. Transcript profiling experiments were performed on three biological replicate samples using the Affymetrix GeneChip Yeast Genome S98 Array. The data were analyzed using the statistical methods available in the GeneSifter microarray data analysis system. To validate the results, eleven differentially expressed genes were further examined by quantitative real-time RT-PCR, and S. cerevisiae mutant strains with deletions in these genes were analyzed for altered sensitivity to pterostilbene. Results Transcript profiling studies revealed that pterostilbene exposure significantly down-regulated the expression of genes involved in methionine metabolism, while the expression of genes involved in mitochondrial functions, drug detoxification, and transcription factor activity were significantly up-regulated. Additional analyses revealed that a large number of genes involved in lipid metabolism were also affected by pterostilbene treatment. Conclusion Using transcript profiling, we have identified the cellular pathways targeted by pterostilbene, an analog of resveratrol. The observed response in lipid metabolism genes is consistent with its known hypolipidemic properties, and the

  11. Ultrasound-Assisted Extraction and Identification of Natural Antioxidants from the Fruit of Melastoma sanguineum Sims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tong; Xu, Dong-Ping; Lin, Sheng-Jun; Li, Ya; Zheng, Jie; Zhou, Yue; Zhang, Jiao-Jiao; Li, Hua-Bin

    2017-02-18

    The fruit of Melastoma sanguineum Sims is an edible and sweet wild fruit. In our previous study, the fruit was found to have a strong antioxidant property. In this study, an ultrasound-assisted extraction (UAE) method was developed to extract natural antioxidants from the fruit of Melastoma sanguineum Sims, and a response surface methodology was used to optimize the conditions of UAE to maximize the extraction efficiency. The influence of five independent extraction parameters (ethanol concentration, solvent/material ratio, extracting time, temperature, and ultrasound power) on the extraction efficiency were investigated using a single factor experiment, and then a central composite rotatable design was used to investigate the interaction of three key parameters. The results showed that the optimal extraction conditions were 42.98% ethanol, 28.29 mL/g solvent/material ratio, 34.29 min extracting time, 60 °C temperature, and 600 W ultrasound power. Under these conditions, the Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC) value of the extracts was 1074.61 ± 32.56 μmol Trolox/g dry weight (DW). Compared with conventional maceration (723.27 ± 11.61 μmol Trolox/g DW) and Soxhlet extraction methods (518.37 ± 23.23 μmol Trolox/g DW), the UAE method improved the extraction efficiency, in a shorter period of time. In addition, epicatechin gallate, epicatechin, rutin, epigallocatechin, protocatechuic acid, chlorogenic acid, and quercetin, were identified and quantified in the fruit extracts of Melastoma sanguineum Sims by UPLC-MS/MS.

  12. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  13. Relationship between age at natural menopause and risk of heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Iffat; Åkesson, Agneta; Wolk, Alicja

    2015-01-01

    We investigated whether younger age at natural menopause confers a risk of heart failure. We also examined a possible modifying effect of tobacco smoking. This study used the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort; 22,256 postmenopausal women with information on age at natural menopause were followed from 1997 through 2011. First event of heart failure was ascertained through the Swedish National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. During a mean follow-up of 13 years, we ascertained 2,532 first events of heart failure hospitalizations and deaths. The mean age at menopause was 51 years. Early natural menopause (40-45 y), compared with menopause at ages 50 to 54 years, was significantly associated with heart failure (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.64). In analyses stratified by smoking status, similar HRs were observed for this age group among never smokers (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.66) and ever smokers (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.78). Among ever smokers, increased incidence (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.47) of heart failure could be detected even among those who entered menopause at ages 46 to 49 years. We found a significant interaction between age at natural menopause and smoking (P = 0.019). This study indicates that women who experience early natural menopause are at increased risk for developing heart failure and that smoking can modify the association by increasing the risk even among women who enter menopause around ages 46 to 49 years.

  14. DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, Jason; Steinberg, Susan; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John

    2011-01-01

    The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

  15. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks

  16. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images; An annotated bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks.

  17. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  18. Perceived risks of produced water management and naturally occurring radioactive material content in North Dakota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Luisa; Yadav, Om Prakash; Khan, Eakalak

    2017-07-01

    Unconventional oil and gas development using hydraulic fracturing has caused conflict and controversy across the globe including the U.S. where some States banned the practice. Nevertheless, North Dakota (ND) has supported the practice because the State perceives the risks to be acceptable and because it has brought growth and opportunities to small communities. However, social acceptance of new technology is based on a number of factors and not contingent on economic benefits. To date, no research has been conducted to understand public risk perception of hazards associated with produced water from hydraulic fracturing in ND. This study focuses on understanding the risk perception of select ND stakeholder groups regarding produced water management and naturally occurring radioactive material. The software Qualtrics was used to create an online survey, collect data, and perform statistical analysis. The most important variables that seem to influence risk perception are the images and thoughts associated with produced water, level of knowledge about produced water handling and content, and knowing how to proceed in case of a spill of produced water. Overall, social risk perception could be in alignment with actual technical risk if availability of objective information is improved. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Three-dimensional dose-response models of competing risks and natural life span

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raabe, O.G.

    1987-01-01

    Three-dimensional dose-rate/time/response surfaces for chronic exposure to carcinogens, toxicants, and ionizing radiation dramatically clarify the separate and interactive roles of competing risks. The three dimensions are average dose rate, exposure time, and risk. An illustration with computer graphics shows the contributions with the passage of time of the competing risks of death from radiation pneumonitis/fibrosis, lung cancer, and natural aging consequent to the inhalation of plutonium-239 dioxide by beagles. These relationships are further evaluated by mathematical stripping with three-dimensional illustrations that graphically show the resultant separate contribution of each fatal effect. Radiation pneumonitis predominates at high dose rates and lung cancer at intermediate dose rates. Low dose rates result in spontaneous deaths from natural aging, yielding a type of practical threshold for lung cancer induction. Risk assessment is benefited by the insights that become apparent with these three-dimensional models. The improved conceptualization afforded by them contributes to the planning and evaluation of epidemiological analyses and experimental studies involving chronic exposure to toxicants

  20. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  1. Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Peter; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Ilbery, Brian; Jeger, Mike; Jones, Glyn; Little, Ruth; MacLeod, Alan; Parker, Steve; Pautasso, Marco; Pietravalle, Stephane; Maye, Damian

    2011-01-01

    Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions. PMID:21624923

  2. Trimming the fat: identification of risk factors associated with obesity in a pediatric emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thundiyil, Josef G; Christiano-Smith, Danielle; Greenberger, Sarah; Cramm, Kelly; Latimer-Pierson, Janese; Modica, Renee F

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess which knowledge deficits and dietary habits in an urban pediatric emergency department (ED) population are risk factors for obesity. This cross-sectional study in an urban pediatric ED used a modified version of the Diet and Health Knowledge Survey, an in-person interview questionnaire, to collect data on demographics, dietary knowledge, and practices. All patients aged 2 to 17 years were enrolled in the study over a 4-month period. Subjects were excluded if they were in extremis, pregnant, incarcerated, institutionalized, considered an emancipated minor, or consumed only a modified consistency diet. One hundred seventy-nine subjects were enrolled in this study. Based on body mass index, the prevalence of obesity in our study population was 24%. Parents with obese children answered a mean of 62.9% (95% confidence interval, 60.4%-65.5%) of knowledge questions correctly, whereas all others scored 60.3% (95% confidence interval, 58.3%-62.3%) correctly. Based on the univariate analysis, 10 predictors met inclusion criteria into logistic regression analysis: screen time (P = 0.03), race (P = 0.08), sex (P = 0.04), parental education (P = 0.08), parental estimation that child is overweight (P obesity were independently associated with obesity. Knowledge deficiencies regarding healthy nutrition among parents in an urban pediatric ED population were not significantly associated with having obese children; however, specific habits were. Emergency physicians may provide a valuable role in identification and brief behavioral intervention in high-risk populations during the current epidemic of childhood obesity.

  3. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  4. The Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risks of Austria: first results for fluvial and pluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Tader, Andreas; Glade, Thomas; Neuhold, Clemens; Stiefelmeyer, Heinz

    2015-04-01

    Incoherent societal adaptation to natural processes results in significant losses every year. A better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risks, and of particular hot spots in a given region or period, is essential for reducing adverse impacts. Commonly, different hazard and risk estimations are performed within individual approaches based on tailor-made concepts. This works well as long as specific cases are considered. The advantage of such a procedure is that each individual hazard and risk is addressed in the best possible manner. The drawback, however, consists in the fact that the results differ significantly in terms of quality and accuracy and therefore cannot be compared. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy and concept which uses similar data sources of equivalent quality in order to adequately analyze the different natural hazards and risks at broader scales. The present study is aiming to develop such a platform. The project Risk:ATlas focuses on the design of an atlas visualizing the most relevant natural hazards and, in particular, possible consequences for the entire territory of Austria. Available as a web-based tool and as a printed atlas, it is seen as a key tool to improve the basis for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk transfer. The atlas is founded on those data sets available for the entire territory of Austria at a consistent resolution and quality. A 1 m resolution DEM and the official cadastre and building register represent the core, further data sets are employed according to the requirements for each natural hazard and risk. In this contribution, the methodology and the preliminary results for fluvial and pluvial floods and their consequences to buildings for three selected test areas in different types of landscapes (rural, urban and mountainous) are presented. Flooding depths expected for annualities of 30, 100 and 300 are derived from existing data sets for fluvial floods and are computed

  5. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  6. Communicating with the public about the risks of naturally occurring asbestos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Hooker

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To explore the application of evidence based risk communication to community messaging about naturally occurring asbestos (NOA. Type of program or service: Risk communication education about NOA. Methods: We apply principles and determinants of risk communication to the topic of NOA. Results: We emphasise the importance of erring on the side of transparency and trust, even when officials may be concerned about inadvertently heightening needless public concern. We offer a range of practical suggestions for how to lower public concern and outrage relating to the issue of NOA when it arises in local contexts. Lessons learnt: Public concern and outrage can be reduced by favouring early and frequent communication, awareness and use of the ‘rule of threes’ in media communication, open acknowledgement of uncertainty, prioritising response to community concern above narrow myth-busting strategies, and supporting community action.

  7. A prototype web-GIS application for risk analysis of natural hazards in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Gerber, Christian; Lévy, Sebastien

    2016-04-01

    Following changes in the system of Swiss subsidy in January 2008, the Swiss cantons and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) were forced to prioritize different natural hazard protection projects based on their cost-effectiveness, as a response to limited financial resources (Bründl et al., 2009). For this purpose, applications such as EconoMe (OFEV, 2016) and Valdorisk (DGE, 2016) were developed for risk evaluation and prioritization of mitigation projects. These tools serve as a useful decision-making instrument to the community of practitioners and responsible authorities for natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. However, there are several aspects which could be improved, in particular, the integration and visualization of spatial information interactively through a web-GIS interface for better risk planning and evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we aim to develop an interactive web-GIS application based on the risk concepts applied in Switzerland. The purpose of this tool is to provide a rapid evaluation of risk before and after protection measures, and to test the efficiency of measures by using a simplified cost-benefit analysis within the context of different protection projects. This application allows to integrate different layers which are necessary to calculate risk, in particular, hazard intensity (vector) maps for different scenarios (such as 30, 100 and 300 years of return periods based on Swiss guidelines), exposed objects (such as buildings) and vulnerability information of these objects. Based on provided information and additional parameters, risk is calculated automatically and results are visualized within the web-GIS interface of the application. The users can modify these input information and parameters to create different risk scenarios. Based on the resultant risk scenarios, the users can propose and visualize (preliminary) risk reduction measures before realizing the actual design and dimensions of such protective

  8. Fetal programming and early identification of newborns at high risk of free radical-mediated diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrone, Serafina; Santacroce, Antonino; Picardi, Anna; Buonocore, Giuseppe

    2016-05-08

    Nowadays metabolic syndrome represents a real outbreak affecting society. Paradoxically, pediatricians must feel involved in fighting this condition because of the latest evidences of developmental origins of adult diseases. Fetal programming occurs when the normal fetal development is disrupted by an abnormal insult applied to a critical point in intrauterine life. Placenta assumes a pivotal role in programming the fetal experience in utero due to the adaptive changes in structure and function. Pregnancy complications such as diabetes, intrauterine growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, and hypoxia are associated with placental dysfunction and programming. Many experimental studies have been conducted to explain the phenotypic consequences of fetal-placental perturbations that predispose to the genesis of metabolic syndrome, obesity, diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease in adulthood. In recent years, elucidating the mechanisms involved in such kind of process has become the challenge of scientific research. Oxidative stress may be the general underlying mechanism that links altered placental function to fetal programming. Maternal diabetes, prenatal hypoxic/ischaemic events, inflammatory/infective insults are specific triggers for an acute increase in free radicals generation. Early identification of fetuses and newborns at high risk of oxidative damage may be crucial to decrease infant and adult morbidity.

  9. Design and Development of a Clinical Risk Management Tool Using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourasghar, Faramarz; Tabrizi, Jafar Sadegh; Yarifard, Khadijeh

    2016-04-01

    Patient safety is one of the most important elements of quality of healthcare. It means preventing any harm to the patients during medical care process. This paper introduces a cost-effective tool in which the Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology is used to identify medical errors in hospital. The proposed clinical error management system (CEMS) is consisted of a reader device, a transfer/receiver device, a database and managing software. The reader device works using radio waves and is wireless. The reader sends and receives data to/from the database via the transfer/receiver device which is connected to the computer via USB port. The database contains data about patients' medication orders. The CEMS has the ability to identify the clinical errors before they occur and then warns the care-giver with voice and visual messages to prevent the error. This device reduces the errors and thus improves the patient safety. A new tool including software and hardware was developed in this study. Application of this tool in clinical settings can help the nurses prevent medical errors. It can also be a useful tool for clinical risk management. Using this device can improve the patient safety to a considerable extent and thus improve the quality of healthcare.

  10. Identification of Phosphorylation Consensus Sequences and Endogenous Neuronal Substrates of the Psychiatric Risk Kinase TNIK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Amato, Stephen P; Rubitski, David M; Hayward, Matthew M; Kormos, Bethany L; Verhoest, Patrick R; Xu, Lan; Brandon, Nicholas J; Ehlers, Michael D

    2016-02-01

    Traf2- and Nck-interacting kinase (TNIK) is a serine/threonine kinase highly expressed in the brain and enriched in the postsynaptic density of glutamatergic synapses in the mammalian brain. Accumulating genetic evidence and functional data have implicated TNIK as a risk factor for psychiatric disorders. However, the endogenous substrates of TNIK in neurons are unknown. Here, we describe a novel selective small molecule inhibitor of the TNIK kinase family. Using this inhibitor, we report the identification of endogenous neuronal TNIK substrates by immunoprecipitation with a phosphomotif antibody followed by mass spectrometry. Phosphorylation consensus sequences were defined by phosphopeptide sequence analysis. Among the identified substrates were members of the delta-catenin family including p120-catenin, δ-catenin, and armadillo repeat gene deleted in velo-cardio-facial syndrome (ARVCF), each of which is linked to psychiatric or neurologic disorders. Using p120-catenin as a representative substrate, we show TNIK-induced p120-catenin phosphorylation in cells requires intact kinase activity and phosphorylation of TNIK at T181 and T187 in the activation loop. Addition of the small molecule TNIK inhibitor or knocking down TNIK by two shRNAs reduced endogenous p120-catenin phosphorylation in cells. Together, using a TNIK inhibitor and phosphomotif antibody, we identify endogenous substrates of TNIK in neurons, define consensus sequences for TNIK, and suggest signaling pathways by which TNIK influences synaptic development and function linked to psychiatric and neurologic disorders. Copyright © 2016 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  11. Healthy versus Entorhinal Cortical Atrophy Identification in Asymptomatic APOE4 Carriers at Risk for Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konishi, Kyoko; Joober, Ridha; Poirier, Judes; MacDonald, Kathleen; Chakravarty, Mallar; Patel, Raihaan; Breitner, John; Bohbot, Véronique D

    2018-01-01

    Early detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been challenging as current biomarkers are invasive and costly. Strong predictors of future AD diagnosis include lower volume of the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex, as well as the ɛ4 allele of the Apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) gene. Therefore, studying functions that are critically mediated by the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex, such as spatial memory, in APOE ɛ4 allele carriers, may be key to the identification of individuals at risk of AD, prior to the manifestation of cognitive impairments. Using a virtual navigation task developed in-house, specifically designed to assess spatial versus non-spatial strategies, the current study is the first to differentiate functional and structural differences within APOE ɛ4 allele carriers. APOE ɛ4 allele carriers that predominantly use non-spatial strategies have decreased fMRI activity in the hippocampus and increased atrophy in the hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and fimbria compared to APOE ɛ4 allele carriers who use spatial strategies. In contrast, APOE ɛ4 allele carriers who use spatial strategies have grey matter levels comparable to non-APOE ɛ4 allele carriers. Furthermore, in a leave-one-out analysis, grey matter in the entorhinal cortex could predict navigational strategy with 92% accuracy.

  12. Urinary tract infection (UTI) in newborns: risk factors, identification and prevention of consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milas, Vesna; Puseljić, Silvija; Stimac, Maja; Dobrić, Hana; Lukić, Gordana

    2013-09-01

    The aim of the study is identification of urinary tract infections (UTI) and urinary tract anomalies (UTA) already in the perinatal period. The authors attempted to prevent serious consequences of the above conditions in the examined children. Family history data, certain conditions in pregnancy and appertaining symptoms in children were elaborated to specify selective distinctive criteria for children at risk. Newborns (1200) were selected for potential existence of a UTI. All the examined newborns underwent a urinalysis. Those with significant bacteriuria were taken urine specimens, C-reactive protein (RVP), Complete Blood Count (CBC) and bilirubin. The newborns with a UTI and a suspected UTA were sent to ultrasound examination, direct radio nuclide cystography and Tc99m MAG3 dynamic scanning. The frequency of a UTI in the perinatal period amounted to 4.5%. A UTA was found in 29.6% of the examinees. The infection was more likely to appear among newborns with a UTA in their families, a UTI, pre-eclampsia and a febrile infection in mother, intrauterine growth retardation, premature rupture of membranes (RVP), umbilical cord strangulation, jaundice, cyanosis, breathing difficulties, seizures and asphyxia.

  13. Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roder, Giulia; Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Lin, Ching-Weei; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this work is to investigate the natural hazard knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community, located in Fazhi Village in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Taiwan has encountered many different types of natural hazards (e.g. landslides and debris flows) that have increased sharply in the last century. Because of that, they are one of the most critical issues for the government and for the people living in mountainous areas. These areas are mainly populated by indigenous people that have experienced economic competition and military conflict with a series of colonizing periods causing a progressive loss of their original cultural identity. The motivation of selecting the case study of Wujie community is because (i) it has suffered, more than others, generations of devastating colonial oppression by foreign governments; (ii) the consequences of hydroelectric projects that moved a lot of water and sediment to the valley and modified the path of the river through the years; (iii) the documented landslides and debris flows occurred in the region during the last decades. Two questions appear spontaneously: How indigenous people are nowadays living with natural hazards? Have land use change or any other human footprint affected their knowledge and perception on natural hazards? This research, the first carried out in Taiwan involving an indigenous community, can offer a unique opportunity to answer these questions. The investigation utilized a variety of participatory methods conducted at the household and community level by the use of 65 face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that residents felt a higher worry about landslide and flood risks, and a slight preparedness to face them. This discrepancy may derive from an unsatisfactory level of communication and information, and the most considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. Results revealed also the complexity

  14. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

  15. Systems-level analysis of risk genes reveals the modular nature of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-Jian; Su, Bing

    2018-05-19

    Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder with high heritability. Genetic studies (especially recent genome-wide association studies) have identified many risk genes for schizophrenia. However, the physical interactions among the proteins encoded by schizophrenia risk genes remain elusive and it is not known whether the identified risk genes converge on common molecular networks or pathways. Here we systematically investigated the network characteristics of schizophrenia risk genes using the high-confidence protein-protein interactions (PPI) from the human interactome. We found that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected PPI network (P = 4.15 × 10 -31 ). Compared with the background genes, the schizophrenia risk genes in the interactome have significantly higher degree (P = 5.39 × 10 -11 ), closeness centrality (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ), betweeness centrality (P = 1.29 × 10 -11 ), clustering coefficient (P = 2.22 × 10 -2 ), and shorter average shortest path length (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ). Based on the densely interconnected PPI network, we identified 48 hub genes and 4 modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia genes. We showed that the proteins encoded by schizophrenia hub genes have significantly more direct physical interactions. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed that cell adhesion, cell cycle, immune system response, and GABR-receptor complex categories were enriched in the modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia risk genes. Our study reveals that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected molecular network and demonstrates the modular nature of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Identification of medication discrepancies during hospital admission in Jordan: Prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lana Salameh

    2018-01-01

    unintentional discrepancies at the time of hospital admission was alarmingly high. Majority of these discrepancies were associated with a potential harm to the patients. These findings support the necessity for implementing the medication reconciliation service in the country, engaging healthcare providers in the process of identification and resolution of medication discrepancies. Keywords: Discrepancies, Hospital, Admission, Jordan, Prevalence, Risk factors

  17. IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF Eimeria spp. DURING EARLY NATURAL INFECTION IN GOAT KIDS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Cepeda-Palacios

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to characterize the natural infection by Eimeria spp. in goat kids, and to describe some pathophysiological responses to eimerosis in kids under intensive rearing conditions in B.C.S, Mexico. Nineteen adult crossbred does naturally infected with mixed Eimeria spp. and 20 Anglo Nubian x Creole crossbred kids were used. Oocyst per gram of feces (OPG and identification of Eimeria species were determined in does (during the pre-kidding and post-kidding periods and kids. Clinical signs, hematocrit, hemoglobin and alkaline phosphatase activity in blood serum were evaluated. OPG (mean±SD was significantly higher (P<0.05 in pre-kidding (9,478±7,599 than in post-kidding (5,313±2,909 period. Oocyst elimination in feces began at age 59±9 days in kids. Eimerian species identified were E. arloingi, E. jolchijevi, E. ninakohlyakimovae, E. hirci, E. christenseni and E. alijevi. Kids were humanely sacrificed to evaluate pathological lesions. Intestinal lesions and lesion severity showed differences in duodenum, jejunum, ileum, cecum and colon, being more severe in duodenum. In conclusion, OPG increased during the late pregnancy in does which favored a doe-kid transmission mechanism. Our results support the notion of Eimeria reproduction rhythms during the late pregnancy period in goats, and this reproduction contribute to vertical transmission of Eimeria to the newborn. However, coccidian outbreaks are developed and clinically observed only when stressing factors such as when weaning occur. Coccidia had devastating effects on the intestine of kids, which might cause long-term permanent malabsortion consequences. Â

  18. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  19. Identification of new natural sweet compounds in wine using centrifugal partition chromatography-gustatometry and Fourier transform mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchal, Axel; Waffo-Téguo, Pierre; Génin, Eric; Mérillon, Jean-Michel; Dubourdieu, Denis

    2011-12-15

    Sweetness contributes notably to the taste-balance of dry wines and increases during oak-barrel aging owing to the release of natural sweeteners from wood. The search for such taste-active molecules, which are sometimes present at very low concentrations in wine or other complex matrixes, requires both reliable purification tools and powerful identification techniques. Here, we report the development of an original inductive method using centrifugal partition chromatography (CPC) and sensorial analysis. This method, called CPC-gustatometry, was implemented to isolate a sweet fraction with only four compounds from a complex oak wood extract. The recently developed Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FT-MS, Orbitrap analyzer) was used jointly with two-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (2D (1)H and (13)C NMR) to obtain the structural elucidation of the purified compounds. The tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) spectra obtained with resonant and nonresonant fragmentation modes were compared, thus providing complementary information about the molecular structure. Two oleanane-type triterpenoids substituted with galloyl and glucosyl moieties were identified, one of which exhibits sweet properties. We term these compounds which have never been reported, Quercotriterpenoside I and II.

  20. Identification and molecular characterization of a naturally occurring RNA virus mutant defective in the initiation of host recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Hongwu; Ding Shouwei

    2003-01-01

    The host recovery response is characterized by the disappearance of disease symptoms and activation of the RNA silencing virus resistance in the new growth following an initial symptomatic infection. However, it is not clear what triggers the initiation of recovery, which occurs naturally only in some virus-host interactions. Here we report the identification and characterization of a spontaneous mutant of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) that became defective in triggering recovery in tobacco plants. Infectious full-length cDNA clones corresponding to the tripartite RNA genome were constructed from both the wild-type and the nonrecovery mutant of TSV (TSVnr), the first sets of infectious cDNA clones from an Ilarvirus. Genetic and molecular analyses identified an A → G mutation in the TSVnr genome that was sufficient to confer nonrecovery when introduced into TSV. The mutation was located in the intergenic region of RNA 3 upstream of the mapped transcriptional start site of the coat protein mRNA. Intriguingly, induction of recovery by TSV was not accompanied by virus clearance and TSV consistently accumulated to significantly higher levels than TSVnr did even though TSVnr-infected plants displayed severe symptoms throughout the course of infection. Thus, our findings indicate that recovery of host can be initiated by minimal genetic changes in a viral genome and may occur in the absence of virus clearance. Mechanisms possibly involved in the initiation of host recovery are discussed

  1. Water pollution risk associated with natural gas extraction from the Marcellus Shale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozell, Daniel J; Reaven, Sheldon J

    2012-08-01

    In recent years, shale gas formations have become economically viable through the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. These techniques carry potential environmental risk due to their high water use and substantial risk for water pollution. Using probability bounds analysis, we assessed the likelihood of water contamination from natural gas extraction in the Marcellus Shale. Probability bounds analysis is well suited when data are sparse and parameters highly uncertain. The study model identified five pathways of water contamination: transportation spills, well casing leaks, leaks through fractured rock, drilling site discharge, and wastewater disposal. Probability boxes were generated for each pathway. The potential contamination risk and epistemic uncertainty associated with hydraulic fracturing wastewater disposal was several orders of magnitude larger than the other pathways. Even in a best-case scenario, it was very likely that an individual well would release at least 200 m³ of contaminated fluids. Because the total number of wells in the Marcellus Shale region could range into the tens of thousands, this substantial potential risk suggested that additional steps be taken to reduce the potential for contaminated fluid leaks. To reduce the considerable epistemic uncertainty, more data should be collected on the ability of industrial and municipal wastewater treatment facilities to remove contaminants from used hydraulic fracturing fluid. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Clinical Decision-Making Following Disasters: Efficient Identification of PTSD Risk in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Carla Kmett; Cohen, Joseph R; Adams, Zachary W; Youngstrom, Eric A; Soltis, Kathryn; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to utilize a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach in order to improve clinical decision-making for adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Specifically we assessed theoretically-driven individual, interpersonal, and event-related vulnerability factors to determine which indices were most accurate in forecasting PTSD. Furthermore, we aimed to translate these etiological findings by identifying clinical cut-off recommendations for relevant vulnerability factors. Our study consisted of structured phone-based clinical interviews with 2000 adolescent-parent dyads living within a 5-mile radius of tornados that devastated Joplin, MO, and northern Alabama in Spring 2011. Demographics, tornado incident characteristics, prior trauma, mental health, and family support and conflict were assessed. A subset of youth completed two behavioral assessment tasks online to assess distress tolerance and risk-taking behavior. ROC analyses indicated four variables that significantly improved PTSD diagnostic efficiency: Lifetime depression (AUC = .90), trauma history (AUC = .76), social support (AUC = .70), and family conflict (AUC = .72). Youth were 2-3 times more likely to have PTSD if they had elevated scores on any of these variables. Of note, event-related characteristics (e.g., property damage) were not related to PTSD diagnostic status. The present study adds to the literature by making specific recommendations for empirically-based, efficient disaster-related PTSD assessment for adolescents following a natural disaster. Implications for practice and future trauma-related developmental psychopathology research are discussed.

  3. Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addepalli, Rajendra P.

    This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using

  4. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in diverse European natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are always managed within a broader context of relationships between governments, citizens, civil society and private business; these relationships shift and evolve over time with changing political currents and economic conditions. In Europe over the past 20 years or so, there has been a move away from government towards a broader practice of 'governance', a shift that is as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as it is to other societal concerns such as housing, economic regeneration or transport. Key characteristics of this change include the emergence of multi-level governance processes and the 'hollowing out' of the nation state; moves away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors specific to each policy area; the creation of new forms of authority and control; and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the full diversity of European national contexts and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is open to analysis and debate. In this paper, we propose a framework for profiling risk governance approaches in relation to key characteristics identified in both the general governance literature and in more specific work on risk governance. This framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national/regional context and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of nine governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as illustrating how it can be used in a process of discussion and debate about risk governance issues. We provide examples of the ways in which the profiling approach can enable comparison between risk governance contexts and approaches, and how it can be used in a variety of potential settings.

  5. U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-01

    This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

  6. Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

    2014-05-01

    Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

  7. Natural and industrial analogues for release of CO2 from storagereservoirs: Identification of features, events, and processes and lessonslearned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewicki, Jennifer L.; Birkholzer, Jens; Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2006-03-03

    reservoir should be evaluated. Third, unsealed fault and fracture zones may act as fast and direct conduits for CO{sub 2} flow from depth to the surface. Risk assessment should therefore emphasize determining the potential for and nature of CO{sub 2} migration along these structures. Fourth, wells that are structurally unsound have the potential to rapidly release large quantities of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Risk assessment should therefore be focused on the potential for both active and abandoned wells at storage sites to transport CO{sub 2} to the surface, particularly at sites with depleted oil or gas reservoirs where wells are abundant. Fifth, the style of CO{sub 2} release at the surface varies widely between and within different leakage sites. In rare circumstances, the release of CO{sub 2} can be a self-enhancing and/or eruptive process; this possibility should be assessed in the case of CO{sub 2} leakage from storage reservoirs. Sixth, the hazard to human health has been small in most cases of large surface releases of CO{sub 2}. This could be due to implementation of public education and CO{sub 2} monitoring programs; these programs should therefore be employed to minimize potential health, safety, and environmental effects associated with CO{sub 2} leakage. Finally, while changes in groundwater chemistry were related to CO{sub 2} leakage due to acidification and interaction with host rocks along flow paths, waters remained potable in most cases. Groundwaters should be monitored for changes that may be associated with storage reservoir leakage.

  8. Natural and industrial analogues for leakage of CO2 from storagereservoirs: identification of features, events, and processes and lessonslearned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewicki, Jennifer L.; Birkholzer, Jens; Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2006-02-28

    for CO2 flow from depth to the surface. Risk assessment shouldtherefore emphasize determining the potential for and nature of CO2migration along these structures. Fourth, wells that are structurallyunsound have the potential to rapidly release large quantities of CO2 tothe atmosphere. Risk assessment should therefore be focused on thepotential for both active and abandoned wells at storage sites totransport CO2 to the surface, particularly at sites with depleted oil orgas reservoirs where wellsare abundant. Fifth, the style of CO2 releaseat the surface varies widely between and within different leakage sites.In rare circumstances, the release of CO2 can be a self-enhancing and/oreruptive process; this possibility should be assessed in the case of CO2leakage from storage reservoirs. Sixth, the hazard to human health hasbeen small in most cases of large surface releases of CO2. This could bedue to implementation of public education and CO2 monitoring programs;these programs should therefore be employed to minimize potential health,safety, and environmental effects associated with CO2 leakage. Finally,while changes in groundwater chemistry were related to CO2 leakage due toacidification and interaction with host rocks along flow paths, watersremained potable in most cases. Groundwaters should be monitored forchanges that may be associated with storage reservoirleakage.

  9. Identification of urban flood vulnerability in eastern Slovakia by mapping the potential natural sources of flooding - implications for territorial planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Gaňová

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the presented study was to assess the distribution of flood-risk potential (FRP at the regional scale. A progressive approach integrating geographical information system (GIS with two different methods of multicriteria analysis (MCA – analytic hierarchy process (AHP and ranking method (RM was applied in the process. In the analyses, the most causative factors for flooding were taken into account, urban spatial planning, such as soil type, daily precipitation, land use, size of the catchment and average basin slope. A case study of flood vulnerability identification in the Hornád and Bodrog catchments’ areas in eastern Slovakia has been employed to illustrate two different approaches. Spatial estimation of FRP should be one of the basic steps for complex geoecological evaluation and delimitation of landscape considering water resources management, groundwater pollution, prediction of soil erosion and sediment transport and some other important landscape-ecological factors. The obtained results indicate that RM method shows better results as related to the existing floods in the recent years in Bodrog and Hornád catchment than AHP method.

  10. Communicating with children and adolescents about the risk of natural disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midtbust, Liv Gunvor Hove; Dyregrov, Atle; Djup, Heidi Wittrup

    2018-01-01

    A vast number of people annually are affected by natural disasters. Children are at risk of losing their lives and suffer mentally or physically after such events. The fostering of resilience and preparedness ahead of disasters can reduce untoward effects of disastrous events. Risk communication and disaster education are considered important aspects of disaster preparedness, but little is known about whether such strategies influence children's behaviour when natural disasters occur or how they cope in the aftermath. This paper presents and discusses various strategies that promote preparedness activities to save lives. To a minor extent, it also includes strategies that can promote coping in the aftermath. Strategies such as informational campaigns, educational activities, psychoeducation and parental guidance are addressed. The literature to date indicates that schools are a suitable arena for risk communication, and that adolescents themselves should be involved and engaged in the communication strategies. However, the relationship between knowledge of preparedness strategies and the resulting preparedness actions is largely unknown. It is unknown whether changes in awareness and attitudes have resulted in actual behaviour change. It is advocated that preparedness activities and parental involvement should supplement information-based strategies.

  11. Making the Case for Early Identification and Intervention for Young Children at Risk for Learning Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Marcee M.

    2004-01-01

    The early identification of children with learning disabilities (LD) is difficult but can be accomplished. Observation of key behaviors which are indicators of LD by preschool and kindergarten teachers can assist in this process. This early identification facilitates the use of intervention strategies to provide a positive early experience for…

  12. Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Hancilar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious, infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities. Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

  13. Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancilar, U.

    2012-01-01

    Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

  14. State of oral hygiene and identification of the main risk factors for inflammatory diseases of periodontal tissues in young people.

    OpenAIRE

    Makarenko, M. V.

    2014-01-01

    A high percentage of prevalence of inflammatory periodontal diseases in young age causes urgency of treatment and prevention of inflammatory diseases of periodontal tissue in young age. Therefore, the research purpose was to investigate the hygienic condition and identification of the main risk factors for gingivitis in patients aged 18-30 years. 286 people aged from 18 to 30 years were observed in the study. To assess hygienic condition of the oral cavity and to determine the thickness of pl...

  15. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were

  16. Developing the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping out using a collaborative action research process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Olja 0000-0001-8860-6717

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents findings of collaborative action research aimed at exploring and describing the process of the development of the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping (EWS. The study has been conducted in collaboration between practitioners from five vocational agriculture and food science schools and research team with expertise in the field of educational psychology. Study employed one cycle of collaborative action research including planning, acting, observing, reflecting and revising phase. During the planning and action phase, Instrument for identification of students at risk of dropping out has been developed and implemented on the sample of 485 first grade students. The collected data has been used to highlight the students who are beginning to exhibit warning signs that could become obstacles to graduation, as well as to craft meaningful prevention and intervention measures. Observations regarding the implementation of proposed methodology and reflections on collected data and ongoing processes have been systematically recorded through regular monthly meetings between researchers and practitioners. Analysis of 73 documents, collected during observation and reflection phase, resulted in 18 categories, grouped into two broad themes: pitfalls and strengths of EWS. Based on the findings, the methodology for identification of students at risk was revised to fit the needs and strengths of the specific school. The study offers valuable lessons regarding development of EWS through researchers-practitioners collaboration.

  17. [Identification of circulatory diseases and their risk during medical examination of an adult population: methodological aspects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinina, A M; Ipatov, P V; Kaminskaya, A K; Kushunina, D V

    2015-01-01

    To study the efficiency of a methodology for the active detection of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) during medical examination and to determine the need and possible ways of its improvement. The medical examinations of 19.4 million people (94.6% of all the citizens who had undergone medical examinations in all the regions of Russia in 2013) were analyzed and the methodological aspects of identification of the circulatory diseases (CDs) that were induced by coronary and cerebral vessel atherosclerosis and had common risk factors, primarily CHD and CVD, were assessed. The medical examinations revealed 2,915,445 cases of CDs and their suspicions, during which its clinical diagnosis was established in 57.2%. The suspected disease requiring that its diagnosis should be further specified; off-medical examinations revealed hypertension in more than 770,000 cases, CHD in 232,000, and CVD in 146,000. The proportion of stable angina pectoris of all angina cases was much higher at a young age (25.6%) than at middle (15.6%) and elderly (11.3%) ages. Brachiocephalic artery stenoses were detected in almost 13,000 cases. According to the official health statistics, within the years preceding the introduction of large-scale medical examinations, there was a slight rise in new CD cases among the adult population of Russia, which was more significant in 2013 (according to the preliminary data) than in 2012. The methodology for the active detection of CDs through a two-step medical examination, which is used during a follow-up, makes it possible to substantially increase detection rates for CDs. There has been shown to be a need for the better quality and completeness of diagnostic examination in real practice.

  18. Empirical study of ill-supported activities in variation risk identification and assessment in early stage product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Kristian; Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Ebro, Martin

    2017-01-01

    medical device company by interviewing six key employees that work in the variation risk identification and assessment process. It is found that there are several ill-supported activities, and that the project teams rely heavily on tolerance experts’ assistance and experience in order to identify...... and assess the variation risk. Ill-supported activities are found to be: Balancing hardness of requirements and the screening; communicating mechanism understanding; predicting user input and internal component movement; documenting and communicating tolerance analysis; implementing robustness in the early...

  19. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

  20. Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of the issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beven, K. J.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bates, P. D.; Borgomeo, E.; Goda, K.; Hall, J. W.; Page, T.; Phillips, J. C.; Rougier, J. T.; Simpson, M.; Stephenson, D. B.; Smith, P. J.; Wagener, T.; Watson, M.

    2015-12-01

    Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

  1. The 5 key questions coping with risks due to natural hazards, answered by a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegger, P.; Sausgruber, J. T.; Schiegg, H. O.

    2009-04-01

    Based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, human endeavours concern primarily existential needs, consequently, to be safeguarded against both natural as well as man made threads. The subsequent needs are to realize chances in a variety of fields, as economics and many others. Independently, the 5 crucial questions are the same as for coping with risks due to natural hazards specifically. These 5 key questions are I) What is the impact in function of space and time ? II) What protection measures comply with the general opinion and how much do they mitigate the threat? III) How can the loss be adequately quantified and monetized ? IV) What budget for prevention and reserves for restoration and compensation are to be planned ? V) Which mix of measures and allocation of resources is sustainable, thus, optimal ? The 5 answers, exemplified by a case study, concerning the sustainable management of risk due to the debris flows by the Enterbach / Inzing / Tirol / Austria, are as follows : I) The impact, created by both the propagation of flooding and sedimentation, has been forecasted by modeling (numerical simulation) the 30, 50, 100, 150, 300 and 1000 year debris flow. The input was specified by detailed studies in meteorology, precipitation and runoff, in geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology and slope stability, in hydraulics, sediment transport and debris flow, in forestry, agriculture and development of communal settlement and infrastructure. All investigations were performed according to the method of ETAlp (Erosion and Transport in Alpine systems). ETAlp has been developed in order to achieve a sustainable development in alpine areas and has been evaluated by the research project "nab", within the context of the EU-Interreg IIIb projects. II) The risk mitigation measures of concern are in hydraulics at the one hand and in forestry at the other hand. Such risk management is evaluated according to sustainability, which means economic, ecologic and social, in short, "triple

  2. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Health and Safety Approach JSA (Job Safety Analysis) in Plantation Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarindra, Muchamad; Ragil Suryoputro, Muhammad; Tiya Novitasari, Adi

    2017-06-01

    Plantation company needed to identify hazard and perform risk assessment as an Identification of Hazard and Risk Assessment Crime and Safety which was approached by using JSA (Job Safety Analysis). The identification was aimed to identify the potential hazards that might be the risk of workplace accidents so that preventive action could be taken to minimize the accidents. The data was collected by direct observation to the workers concerned and the results were recorded on a Job Safety Analysis form. The data were as forklift operator, macerator worker, worker’s creeper, shredder worker, workers’ workshop, mechanical line worker, trolley cleaning workers and workers’ crepe decline. The result showed that shredder worker value was 30 and had the working level with extreme risk with the risk value range was above 20. So to minimize the accidents could provide Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) which were appropriate, information about health and safety, the company should have watched the activities of workers, and rewards for the workers who obey the rules that applied in the plantation.

  3. natural

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elías Gómez Macías

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Partiendo de óxido de magnesio comercial se preparó una suspensión acuosa, la cual se secó y calcinó para conferirle estabilidad térmica. El material, tanto fresco como usado, se caracterizó mediante DRX, área superficial BET y SEM-EPMA. El catalizador mostró una matriz de MgO tipo periclasa con CaO en la superficie. Las pruebas de actividad catalítica se efectuaron en lecho fijo empacado con partículas obtenidas mediante prensado, trituración y clasificación del material. El flujo de reactivos consistió en mezclas gas natural-aire por debajo del límite inferior de inflamabilidad. Para diferentes flujos y temperaturas de entrada de la mezcla reactiva, se midieron las concentraciones de CH4, CO2 y CO en los gases de combustión con un analizador de gases tipo infrarrojo no dispersivo (NDIR. Para alcanzar conversión total de metano se requirió aumentar la temperatura de entrada al lecho a medida que se incrementó el flujo de gases reaccionantes. Los resultados obtenidos permiten desarrollar un sistema de combustión catalítica de bajo costo con un material térmicamente estable, que promueva la alta eficiencia en la combustión de gas natural y elimine los problemas de estabilidad, seguridad y de impacto ambiental negativo inherentes a los procesos de combustión térmica convencional.

  4. Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

    2009-01-01

    Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222 Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

  5. Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner [Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria); Simon, Steven L [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States); Wojcik, Andrzej [Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology, Warsaw (Poland); Cardis, Elisabeth [Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM-Hospital del Mar) and CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica - CIBERESP, Barcelona (Spain); Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot [Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, Radiological and Human Health Division, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Hayata, Isamu [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)], E-mail: jhendry2002uk@yahoo.com

    2009-06-01

    Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of {sup 222}Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

  6. Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendry, Jolyon H; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

    2014-01-01

    Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case–control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case–control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors. PMID:19454802

  7. Is the phototransformation of pharmaceuticals a natural purification process that decreases ecological and human health risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao-Huan; Lin, Angela Yu-Chen

    2014-01-01

    Sunlight photodegradation has long been considered a significant process in lowering the concentrations of pharmaceuticals in surface waters and thus decreasing the ecological risk. For the first time, this study identified the significance of investigating the environmental photodegradation of a pharmaceutical residue mixture (rather than a single compound) and the associated toxicity of transformation byproducts in environmental waters, including rivers, hospital wastewaters, and effluents from wastewater treatment plants and pharmaceutical production facilities. Pharmaceuticals undergo phototransformation rather than mineralization (11–23% in 34 h). Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as dissolved organic matter for each individual compound and subsequently affect the photolysis rates. The increased toxicity of irradiated pharmaceutical mixtures challenges the validity of the current understanding of sunlight photolysis. The implications of this work suggest that current knowledge concerning the occurrence, natural attenuation, ecotoxicity, and human health risks of pharmaceuticals is far from complete; photolysis is not necessarily a purification process. -- Highlights: • Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as DOMs for each other. • Pharmaceuticals underwent merely phototransformation rather than mineralization. • Increased toxicity from photo byproducts associated with the pharmaceutical mixture. • Phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to human and the ecosystem. -- Transformation byproducts associated with a pharmaceutical mixture could be more toxic, and phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to humans and the ecosystem

  8. The Identification of Filters and Interdependencies for Effective Resource Allocation: Coupling the Mitigation of Natural Hazards to Economic Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agar, S. M.; Kunreuther, H.

    2005-12-01

    Policy formulation for the mitigation and management of risks posed by natural hazards requires that governments confront difficult decisions for resource allocation and be able to justify their spending. Governments also need to recognize when spending offers little improvement and the circumstances in which relatively small amounts of spending can make substantial differences. Because natural hazards can have detrimental impacts on local and regional economies, patterns of economic development can also be affected by spending decisions for disaster mitigation. This paper argues that by mapping interdependencies among physical, social and economic factors, governments can improve resource allocation to mitigate the risks of natural hazards while improving economic development on local and regional scales. Case studies of natural hazards in Turkey have been used to explore specific "filters" that act to modify short- and long-term outcomes. Pre-event filters can prevent an event from becoming a natural disaster or change a routine event into a disaster. Post-event filters affect both short and long-term recovery and development. Some filters cannot be easily modified by spending (e.g., rural-urban migration) but others (e.g., land-use practices) provide realistic spending targets. Net social benefits derived from spending, however, will also depend on the ways by which filters are linked, or so-called "interdependencies". A single weak link in an interdependent system, such as a power grid, can trigger a cascade of failures. Similarly, weak links in social and commercial networks can send waves of disruption through communities. Conversely, by understanding the positive impacts of interdependencies, spending can be targeted to maximize net social benefits while mitigating risks and improving economic development. Detailed information on public spending was not available for this study but case studies illustrate how networks of interdependent filters can modify

  9. Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

    2008-10-01

    This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

  10. Geologic and Geophysicsal Studies of Natural Hazards and Risks in the Gulf of Peter the Great, Japan Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anokhin, Vladimir; Shcherbakov, Viktor; Motychko, Viktor; Slinchenkov, Vladimir; Sokolov, Georgy; Kotov, Sergey; Kartashov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    The area of the Gulf of Peter the Great is socially, economically and culturally one of the most important regions for the Russian Far East. At the same time, there have been reported palpable natural hazards, which pose a real threat to local infrastructure. Complex field team of the Gramaberg VNIIOkeangeologia institute carried out geological and geophysical studies of natural hazards in the water area and coastal zone of the gulf in the summer and autumn of 2012. The research program included - geodetic deformation monitoring of the coastal zone by the HDS 3000 Leica tachometer; - echo sounding of the underwater part of the coastal slope by the LCX-37C depth sounder equipped with active external 12-channel GPS Lowrance antenna LGC-3000; - high-frequency acoustic profiling by GeoPulse Subbotom Profilier with oscillator frequency of 12.2 kHz for the study of bottom sediments to a depth of 40 m; - hydromagnetic measurements by SeaSPY Marine Magnetics magnetometer for investigation of deep geological structure; - sonar measurements by GEO SM C-MAX, 325 kHz frequency emitters for studying seafloor features; - studies of the water column (sensing and sampling); - bottom sediment sampling. Analytic work was performed by mass spectrometry, atomic absorption spectrophotometry, chromatography, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, gamma spectrometry and included the following. For water - the content of Fe, Mn, Cd, As, Pb, Cu, Co, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg in solution and in suspension, polycyclic aromatic compounds, organochlorine pesticides, oil, methane. For sediments - grade analysis, mineralogical analysis of sand, determination of Fe, Mn, Cd, As, Pb, Cu, Co, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg content; identification of petroleum products, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides, the specific activity of Cs-137. As a result, a set of geological maps was composed: maps of pre-Quaternary and Quaternary rocks and deposits, lithological map, geomorphological map, map of engineering

  11. Natural resource risk and cost management in environmental restoration: Demonstration project at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bascietto, J.J.; Sharples, F.E.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is both a trustee for the natural resources present on its properties and the lead response agency under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). As such, DOE is addressing the destruction or loss of those resources caused by releases of hazardous substances from its facilities (DOE 1991) and collecting data to be used in determining the extent of contamination at its facilities, estimating risks to human health and the environment, and selecting appropriate remedial actions. The remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process is used to investigate sites and select remedial actions. A Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) process may be used to determine whether natural resources have also been injured by the released hazardous substances and to calculate compensatory monetary damages to be used to restore the natural resources. In FY 1994, the Savannah River Site (SRS) was chosen to serve as a demonstration site for testing the integrated NRDA framework and demonstrating how NRDA concerns might be integrated into the environmental restoration activities of an actual site that is characteristically large and complex. The demonstration project (1) provided a means to illustrate the use of complex analyses using real information on the specific natural resources of the SRS; (2) served as a vehicle for reinforcing and expanding the SRS staff's understanding of the links between the NRDA and RI/FS processes; (3) provided a forum for the discussion of strategic issues with SRS personnel; and (4) allowed the refining and elaboration of DOE guidance by benchmarking the theoretical process using real information and issues

  12. Impact of reduced-risk insecticides on soybean aphid and associated natural enemies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohnesorg, Wayne J; Johnson, Kevin D; O'Neal, Matthew E

    2009-10-01

    Insect predators in North America suppress Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae) populations; however, insecticides are required when populations reach economically damaging levels. Currently, insecticides used to manage A. glycines are broad-spectrum (pyrethroids and organophosphates), and probably reduce beneficial insect abundance in soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr. Our goal was to determine whether insecticides considered reduced-risk by the Environmental Protection Agency could protect soybean yield from A. glycines herbivory while having a limited impact on the aphid's natural enemies. We compared three insecticides (imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, and pymetrozine,) to a broad-spectrum insecticide (lamda-cyhalothrin) and an untreated control using two application methods. We applied neonicotinoid insecticides to seeds (imidacloprid and thiamethoxam) as well as foliage (imidacloprid); pymetrozine and lamda-cyhalothrin were applied only to foliage. Foliage-applied insecticides had lower A. glycines populations and higher yields than the seed-applied insecticides. Among foliage-applied insecticides, pymetrozine and imidacloprid had an intermediate level of A. glycines population and yield protection compared with lamda-cyhalothrin and the untreated control. We monitored natural enemies with yellow sticky cards, sweep-nets, and direct observation. Before foliar insecticides were applied (i.e., before aphid populations developed) seed treatments had no observable effect on the abundance of natural enemies. After foliar insecticides were applied, differences in natural enemy abundance were observed when sampled with sweep-nets and direct observation but not with yellow sticky cards. Based on the first two sampling methods, pymetrozine and the foliage-applied imidacloprid had intermediate abundances of natural enemies compared with the untreated control and lamda-cyhalothrin.

  13. Identification of Long Bone Fractures in Radiology Reports Using Natural Language Processing to support Healthcare Quality Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundmeier, Robert W; Masino, Aaron J; Casper, T Charles; Dean, Jonathan M; Bell, Jamie; Enriquez, Rene; Deakyne, Sara; Chamberlain, James M; Alpern, Elizabeth R

    2016-11-09

    Important information to support healthcare quality improvement is often recorded in free text documents such as radiology reports. Natural language processing (NLP) methods may help extract this information, but these methods have rarely been applied outside the research laboratories where they were developed. To implement and validate NLP tools to identify long bone fractures for pediatric emergency medicine quality improvement. Using freely available statistical software packages, we implemented NLP methods to identify long bone fractures from radiology reports. A sample of 1,000 radiology reports was used to construct three candidate classification models. A test set of 500 reports was used to validate the model performance. Blinded manual review of radiology reports by two independent physicians provided the reference standard. Each radiology report was segmented and word stem and bigram features were constructed. Common English "stop words" and rare features were excluded. We used 10-fold cross-validation to select optimal configuration parameters for each model. Accuracy, recall, precision and the F1 score were calculated. The final model was compared to the use of diagnosis codes for the identification of patients with long bone fractures. There were 329 unique word stems and 344 bigrams in the training documents. A support vector machine classifier with Gaussian kernel performed best on the test set with accuracy=0.958, recall=0.969, precision=0.940, and F1 score=0.954. Optimal parameters for this model were cost=4 and gamma=0.005. The three classification models that we tested all performed better than diagnosis codes in terms of accuracy, precision, and F1 score (diagnosis code accuracy=0.932, recall=0.960, precision=0.896, and F1 score=0.927). NLP methods using a corpus of 1,000 training documents accurately identified acute long bone fractures from radiology reports. Strategic use of straightforward NLP methods, implemented with freely available

  14. Isolation and identification of Taylorella asinigenitalis from the genital tract of a stallion, first case of a natural infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Båverud, V; Nyström, C; Johansson, K-E

    2006-09-10

    Contagious equine metritis (CEM), caused by Taylorella equigenitalis, is a widely known highly contagious genital equine disease that is transmitted venereally. A new bacterium, Taylorella asinigenitalis resembling T. equigenitalis was recently isolated from three American donkey jacks, at routine testing for CEM. The purpose of this study was to identify and characterize a strain of Taylorella sp. from the genital tract of a stallion. Swab samples for culture of T. equigenitalis were taken from urethral fossa, urethra and penile sheath of a 3-year-old stallion of the Ardennes breed when it was routinely tested for CEM. A small Gram-negative rod was isolated, but the colony appearance, the slow growth rate and the results in the API ZYM test differed slightly from those of T. equigenitalis. Sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene was therefore performed and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the sequence of the strain Bd 3751/05 represents T. asinigenitalis and that the strain is identical with the Californian asinine strain UCD-1T (ATCC 700933T). The T. asinigenitalis strain had a low MIC of gentamicin (MIC16 microg/ml). Taylorella asinigenitalis has thus for the first time been isolated from the genital tract of a stallion with a natural infection. To determine the pathogenicity of T. asinigenitalis it will be important to conduct further experimental studies. Sequence analysis of 16S rRNA genes was shown to be a reliable tool for differentiation of T. asinigenitalis from T. equigenitalis as well as for identification of these species.

  15. Isolation and Identification of an Indigenous Probiotic Lactobacillus Strain: Its Encapsulation with Natural Branched Polysaccharids to Improve Bacterial Viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nafiseh Sadat Foroutan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective: Probiotics have to reach their site of action in certain numbers in order to exhibit positive health effects. Encapsulation has shown remarkable enhancing effects on probiotic survival in simulated gastric conditions compared to free bacteria. The purpose of this study was identification and evaluation of a potential probiotic strain using encapsulation process by new carriers in order to improve probiotic viability during in vitro simulated conditions.Material and Methods: A native Lactobacillus was isolated from yogurt, identified as Lactobacillus casei PM01 (NCBI registered and analyzed for probiotic properties alongside established probiotic strains of Lactobacillus acidophilus ATCC 43556, and Lactobacillus rhamnosus ATCC 7469. Acid and bile resistance, adhesion to Caco-2 cells and antibiotic resistance were evaluated. Lactobacillus casei PM01 was encapsulated with alginate, chitosan and natural branched polysaccharides (pectin, tragacanth gum and gum Arabic by using extrusion technique. Encapsulation efficiency, acidification activity and viability of entrapped Lactobacillus casei PM01 in simulated gastric pH were determined. Results and Conclusion: Based on the results, all the three strains could be considered as potential probiotics, and are good candidates for further in vitro and in vivo evaluation. The results showed that the survival of encapsulated Lactobacillus casei PM01 was significantly (p≤0.05 increased when it was incubated in simulated gastric pH. It can be concluded that indigenous Lactobacillus casei PM01 in encapsulated form is introduced as an efficient probiotic strain for using in dairy products.Conflict of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  16. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  17. The risk of re-identification versus the need to identify individuals in rare disease research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Mats G; Lochmüller, Hanns; Riess, Olaf; Schaefer, Franz; Orth, Michael; Rubinstein, Yaffa; Molster, Caron; Dawkins, Hugh; Taruscio, Domenica; Posada, Manuel; Woods, Simon

    2016-11-01

    There is a growing concern in the ethics literature and among policy makers that de-identification or coding of personal data and biospecimens is not sufficient for protecting research subjects from privacy invasions and possible breaches of confidentiality due to the possibility of unauthorized re-identification. At the same time, there is a need in medical science to be able to identify individual patients. In particular for rare disease research there is a special and well-documented need for research collaboration so that data and biosamples from multiple independent studies can be shared across borders. In this article, we identify the needs and arguments related to de-identification and re-identification of patients and research subjects and suggest how the different needs may be balanced within a framework of using unique encrypted identifiers.

  18. Internal risks of factoring business: identification, cause-effect relationships, accounting and management aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Vygivska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article identifies the risks of the economic activity of a factoring company. The identified risks are divided into internal (fraud risk, credit risk, liquidity, nonpayment, staff, supplier's failure to meet the terms of the supply / factoring contract and external (legal, inflation, currency, interest, industry risks, country risk. The cause-effect relationships of the identified risks have been established. The content of information requests of the leading part of the factoring company, as well as the management subsystems (accounting, economic analysis, control and planning, and the direction of information flows between them (to manage the company's internal risks is determined. These proposals contribute to the improvement of accounting and analytical support for risk management of the factoring business, the choice of alternative risk management methods, the impact on their possible consequences, minimizing the negative impact of risks on the financial condition of the company, and establishing the effectiveness of factoring operations under risk.

  19. Post-Mastectomy and Phantom Breast Pain: Risk Factors, Natural History, and Impact on Quality of Life

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dworkin, Robert

    1999-01-01

    ... from substantial reductions in quality of life. The primary aims of this research project are to identify risk factors for these chronic pain syndromes following surgical procedures for breast cancer, characterize their natural history...

  20. Patterns of population differentiation and natural selection on the celiac disease background risk network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sams, Aaron; Hawks, John

    2013-01-01

    Celiac disease is a common small intestinal inflammatory condition induced by wheat gluten and related proteins from rye and barley. Left untreated, the clinical presentation of CD can include failure to thrive, malnutrition, and distension in juveniles. The disease can additionally lead to vitamin deficiencies, anemia, and osteoporosis. Therefore, CD potentially negatively affected fitness in past populations utilizing wheat, barley, and rye. Previous analyses of CD risk variants have uncovered evidence for positive selection on some of these loci. These studies also suggest the possibility that risk for common autoimmune conditions such as CD may be the result of positive selection on immune related loci in the genome to fight infection. Under this evolutionary scenario, disease phenotypes may be a trade-off from positive selection on immunity. If this hypothesis is generally true, we can expect to find a signal of natural selection when we survey across the network of loci known to influence CD risk. This study examines the non-HLA autosomal network of gene loci associated with CD risk in Europe. We reject the null hypothesis of neutrality on this network of CD risk loci. Additionally, we can localize evidence of selection in time and space by adding information from the genome of the Tyrolean Iceman. While we can show significant differentiation between continental regions across the CD network, the pattern of evidence is not consistent with primarily recent (Holocene) selection across this network in Europe. Further localization of ancient selection on this network may illuminate the ecological pressures acting on the immune system during this critically interesting phase of our evolution.

  1. Patterns of population differentiation and natural selection on the celiac disease background risk network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Sams

    Full Text Available Celiac disease is a common small intestinal inflammatory condition induced by wheat gluten and related proteins from rye and barley. Left untreated, the clinical presentation of CD can include failure to thrive, malnutrition, and distension in juveniles. The disease can additionally lead to vitamin deficiencies, anemia, and osteoporosis. Therefore, CD potentially negatively affected fitness in past populations utilizing wheat, barley, and rye. Previous analyses of CD risk variants have uncovered evidence for positive selection on some of these loci. These studies also suggest the possibility that risk for common autoimmune conditions such as CD may be the result of positive selection on immune related loci in the genome to fight infection. Under this evolutionary scenario, disease phenotypes may be a trade-off from positive selection on immunity. If this hypothesis is generally true, we can expect to find a signal of natural selection when we survey across the network of loci known to influence CD risk. This study examines the non-HLA autosomal network of gene loci associated with CD risk in Europe. We reject the null hypothesis of neutrality on this network of CD risk loci. Additionally, we can localize evidence of selection in time and space by adding information from the genome of the Tyrolean Iceman. While we can show significant differentiation between continental regions across the CD network, the pattern of evidence is not consistent with primarily recent (Holocene selection across this network in Europe. Further localization of ancient selection on this network may illuminate the ecological pressures acting on the immune system during this critically interesting phase of our evolution.

  2. Strong Signature of Natural Selection within an FHIT Intron Implicated in Prostate Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Yan; Larson, Garrett; Rivas, Guillermo; Lundberg, Cathryn; Geller, Louis; Ouyang, Ching; Weitzel, Jeffrey; Archambeau, John; Slater, Jerry; Daly, Mary B.; Benson, Al B.; Kirkwood, John M.; O'Dwyer, Peter J.; Sutphen, Rebecca; Stewart, James A.; Johnson, David; Nordborg, Magnus; Krontiris, Theodore G.

    2008-01-01

    Previously, a candidate gene linkage approach on brother pairs affected with prostate cancer identified a locus of prostate cancer susceptibility at D3S1234 within the fragile histidine triad gene (FHIT), a tumor suppressor that induces apoptosis. Subsequent association tests on 16 SNPs spanning approximately 381 kb surrounding D3S1234 in Americans of European descent revealed significant evidence of association for a single SNP within intron 5 of FHIT. In the current study, re-sequencing and genotyping within a 28.5 kb region surrounding this SNP further delineated the association with prostate cancer risk to a 15 kb region. Multiple SNPs in sequences under evolutionary constraint within intron 5 of FHIT defined several related haplotypes with an increased risk of prostate cancer in European-Americans. Strong associations were detected for a risk haplotype defined by SNPs 138543, 142413, and 152494 in all cases (Pearson's χ2 = 12.34, df 1, P = 0.00045) and for the homozygous risk haplotype defined by SNPs 144716, 142413, and 148444 in cases that shared 2 alleles identical by descent with their affected brothers (Pearson's χ2 = 11.50, df 1, P = 0.00070). In addition to highly conserved sequences encompassing SNPs 148444 and 152413, population studies revealed strong signatures of natural selection for a 1 kb window covering the SNP 144716 in two human populations, the European American (π = 0.0072, Tajima's D = 3.31, 14 SNPs) and the Japanese (π = 0.0049, Fay & Wu's H = 8.05, 14 SNPs), as well as in chimpanzees (Fay & Wu's H = 8.62, 12 SNPs). These results strongly support the involvement of the FHIT intronic region in an increased risk of prostate cancer. PMID:18953408

  3. Risk analysis and protective measures for occupationally workers with technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegazy, R.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Naturally occurring radionuclides are present in many natural resources. Elevated concentrations of these radionuclides are often found in certain geological materials, namely igneous rocks and ores. Human activities that exploit these resources may lead to enhanced concentrations of radionuclides (often referred to as technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material (TE-NORM). Enhanced levels of natural background radiation are encountered in many occupational industrial activities involving a large number of workers. Uncontrolled activities associated with TE-NORM can contaminate the environment and pose a risk to human health. This risk can be alleviated by the adoption of controls to identify where NORM is present; and cleaning the NORM-contaminated equipment and waste management while protecting workers. The main objective of this study is to investigate the natural radioactivity and the hazard parameters in the TE-NORM samples from different industrial activities. Also to describe the models and develop the computer codes that allow one to estimate the risk of cancer resulting from any specified dose of ionizing radiation for occupationally workers in different industrial activities. The present study deals with 50 different samples. This waste generated from petroleum fields, phosphate fertilizers samples, consumer product samples from China, ceramic and zircon samples. The radon exhalation rates calculated using solid state nuclear track detector (CR-39). The value of radon exhalation rate 58.82±5.3 x10 3 , 4.28±0.49 x10 3 and 0.306±0.025 x10 3 Bq/m 2 h for scale, sludge and sand, respectively. The value of radon exhalation rate 82.67±7.98, 62.58 ±5.7, 46.16 ±3.91 and 198.51±18.68 Bq/m 2 h for phosphate fertilizers samples, consumer product samples from China, ceramic and zircon samples, respectively. The 226 Ra activity concentrations were 301.4±771.5, 52.1±438 and 2.56±55.37 kBq/kg for scale, sludge and sand, respectively. The

  4. Coastal Human Actions on Natural Morph-dynamics around RIA of FOZ (NW Spain). Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, J. Javier; Veiga, Efren M.; Rodriguez, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    This work approaches the natural littoral processes and their changes induced by human activities around the Cantabrian RIA of FOZ (Galicia, NW Spain). Ria is a specific Spanish term for referring the estuary figured on the sea flooded mouth of a river valley. Although located in Galicia the RIA of FOZ is a Cantabrian Ria. The "Cantabrian rias" clearly differ from the "Galician rias" in their lower degree of tectonic complexity, in their smaller dimensions and in their more advanced current state of infilling (Diez, 1996). While Galician is a Pacific coast Cantabrian was generated as a mainly Atlantic coast. The sedimentary deposits of the Cantabrian rias are mainly from marine origin, being from fluvial origin (Asensio, 1979) just the finest components. The predominant Cantabrian littoral transport goes eastwards and, as consequence of it, the sedimentary littoral spits closing the mouths in coasts normally grow in the same sense. But there are many cases, like in the Ria of Foz, where the spit progresses in an apparent westwards atypical way. This work shows that it is due to combined wind wave phenomena of refraction, diffraction and reflection, which will be detailed. But the human activities interfere in these natural processes. Different port constructions have been made in the Ria of Foz from 1931 to 1977. Their final effects in the morph-dynamics obligate to introduce one construction for regenerate the spit in 1986. The performance, effectiveness and impact of all these port constructions are studied in detail and what are their influences in natural processes for finally applying this knowledge in risks management. Keywords: Rias, Littoral processes, Coastal morph-dynamics, Human induced driving, Risk management.

  5. The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among

  6. Synergies across the natural resources management fields in Southern Africa: Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Bocchino

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available For various reasons, Southern Africa may be considered the playground as well as the thinking tank for many theories and practices in the natural resources management field. History has contributed to reshape conservation practices through colonial times, and recent wars have led to the relocation of people from their homelands and the appropriation by people of previously protected areas due to socio-economic pressures. Contemporary practices stemming from sustainable development have not yielded the expected results in resolving critical socio-economic stresses that impact on environmental health. Furthermore, human health has deteriorated in remote rural areas due to the failures of governance systems and the perpetration of non-participatory models for natural resources management, especially conservation. This paper seeks to explore how two relatively new approaches, Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health, can together tap into the theoretical and practical gaps left by previous paradigms in order to instill a sustainable development approach that can benefit both people and natural resources in remote and poor rural areas.

  7. Disaster Management System as an Element of Risk Management for Natural Disaster Systems Using the PESTLE Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Sarwar, D; Ramachandran, M; Hosseinian Far, A

    2017-01-01

    Recently, we have witnessed so many natural catastrophes such as earthquakes in Japan, severe floods in the UK, US and many other parts of the world. Consequently businesses have been losing tens of billions of dollars as a result of various natural and man-made disasters. Disaster Management System (DMS) have proven to be important means for reducing risks associated with such damages to businesses. A DMS can minimize and in some cases, eliminates the risks through technical, management or o...

  8. Mental health, life functioning and risk factors among people exposed to frequent natural disasters and chronic poverty in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Pollack, Amie Alley; Weiss, Bahr; Trung, Lam Tu

    2016-01-01

    Background People living in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are at increased risk for exposure to major natural disasters, which places them at increased risk for mental health problems. Evidence is less clear, however, regarding the effects of less severe but more frequent natural disasters, which are likely to increase due to global climate change. Aims To examine the mental health and life functioning, and their predictors, of people living in central coastal Vietnam ? an area char...

  9. Heavy metal pollution assessment, source identification, and health risk evaluation in Aibi Lake of northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaoyong, Zhang; Xiaodong, Yang; Shengtian, Yang

    2018-01-08

    This study sought to analyze heavy metal (Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Mn, and Fe) pollution status in the waters of Aibi Lake in northwest China through the use of an applied comprehensive pollution index, health risk model, and multivariate statistical analyses in combination with the lake's land use types. Results showed that (1) the maximum (average) values of the heavy metals Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Mn, and Fe were 0.0644 (0.0123), 0.0006 (0.0002), 0.0009 (0.0032), 0.1235 (0.0242), 0.0061 (0.0025), and 0.0222 (0.0080) μg/L, respectively. Among these, in all the samples, Pb and Ni exceeded the standard and acceptable values put forth by the World Health Organization by 21.13 and 25.67%, respectively. Ni also exceeded (30.16%) the third grade of the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water of China. The levels of the six heavy metals were all within the fishery and irrigation water quality standard ranges in China. (2) The average values for single pollution index of heavy metals Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Mn, and Fe were 1.000, 0.0006, 0.0009, 3.000, 0.060, and 0.070, respectively, among which Ni levels indicated moderate to significant pollution, while others indicated healthy levels. (3) Health risk evaluation showed that the R n values for Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, and Fe were 1.8 × 10 -4 , 5.33 × 10 -9 , 4.80 × 10 -7 , 1.08 × 10 -6 , and 2.51 × 10 -7  a -1 , respectively, of which, in all samples, Pb and Ni contents all exceeded the maximum acceptable risk levels according to the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) as well as the U.S. Environment Protection Agency. (4) Combining with multivariate statistical analyses along with the land use distribution within the lake basin, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Mn were mainly influenced by the agriculture production and emission from urban lives and traffics, and Fe mainly originated from the natural environment. The results of this research can provide reference values for heavy metal pollution

  10. Improvement of Bank Risks Management on the Basis of “Monitoring – Identification – Protection” Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zabezhaylo Ivan Mikhaylovich

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The banking system in contemporary conditions becomes the critically important subsystem of any national economy. To ensure a successful and profitable operation of the bank the effective management of associated risks is necessary. A technique of banking risk management, which includes three functional blocks: monitoring, identification and protection against risks, is proposed in the article. A key element of the proposed method is the stage of optimization of risk management in the context of the particular situation of data analysis and decision making. The two-factor model of optimizing the choice of means of risk management is argued. This model implies two options: to minimize the level of allowable risks when you fix the volume of the resources required for reliable risk management in this particular situation on an acceptable (target, desired level; or to minimize the volume of the resources required for reliable in this situation analyzed risk management when you fixed appropriate risks at an acceptable level. The technique is based on an integrated approach, the basic elements of which are the abilities to work with different types of data, and to use common methods and means of data processing. The proposed method makes it possible to integrate qualitative and quantitative risk management tools in a single process of data analysis and decision making support. The proposed method of banking risk management is a tool to detail the national regulators recommendations by taking into account the specific (context features of a particular financial institution management during its implementation. The technique allows for contextual tools setting, depending on the application field.

  11. [Failure of zirconia-based prostheses on natural teeth and implants: focus on risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, N; Koenig, V; Vanheusden, A; Mainjot, A

    2014-01-01

    Cohesive fracture of the veneering ceramic (chipping) is the first cause of failure of zirconia-based prostheses on natural teeth and implants. Besides risk factors related to the material (thermal stresses generated during the manufacturing process, framework inappropriate design), there are some clinical risk factors, which can influence the restoration prognosis. Indeed, unfavorable occlusal relationships and/or the presence of parafunctions such as bruxism and clenching, which are frequent pathologies, engender significant overloading. A retrospective study was performed at the University Hospital Center (CHU) of Liege on 147 dental and implants prostheses, placed between May 2003 and January 2012. This study highlighted a significant correlation between chipping and the absence of an occlusal nightguard (p = 0.0048), the presence of a ceramic restoration as an antagonist (p = 0.013), the presence of occlusal parafunctions (p = 0.018), and the presence of implants as support of the restorations (p = 0.026). These results underline the importance of external stress and occlusal risk factors diagnosis, as the need to perform an occlusal nightguard to patients with parafunctions.

  12. Prototype of a Web-based Participative Decision Support Platform in Natural Hazards and Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zar Chi Aye

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo framework and its client side software development kit (SDK. The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

  13. Geographical Detector-Based Identification of the Impact of Major Determinants on Aeolian Desertification Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Ziqiang; Xu, Xiaoming; Zhang, Hong; Wu, Zhitao; Liu, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Arid and semi-arid areas in North China are facing the challenge of a rising aeolian desertification risk (ADR) due to the intertwined effects of complex natural processes and intensified anthropogenic activities. An accurate quantitative assessment of the relationship between ADR and its determinants is beneficial for understanding the driving mechanisms of aeolian desertification and for controlling future desertification. Previous studies have failed to quantify the relative role of determinants driving ADR and have been limited in assessing their interactive impacts. In this study, a spatial variance analysis-based geographical detector methodology is used to quantify the effects of geological, physical, and human factors on the occurrence of ADR in an area characterized by mountains and hills in northern China. It is found that soil type, precipitation, and wind velocity are the major determinants of ADR, which implies that geological and physical elements (e.g., soil attribute) and climatic factors (e.g., precipitation and wind velocity) rather than human activities have played a greater role in the incidence of ADR. Particularly, the results show that the interaction of various determinants causes significant non-linearly enhanced impacts on the ADR. The findings of our study will assist local inhabitants and policy makers in developing measures for wind prevention and sand control to mitigate the effects of desertification in the region.

  14. Chromatographic and Spectroscopic Identification and Recognition of Natural Dyes, Uncommon Dyestuff Components, and Mordants: Case Study of a 16th Century Carpet with Chintamani Motifs

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Otłowska; Marek Ślebioda; Agata Kot-Wasik; Jakub Karczewski; Magdalena Śliwka-Kaszyńska

    2018-01-01

    A multi-tool analytical practice was used for the characterisation of a 16th century carpet manufactured in Cairo. A mild extraction method with hydrofluoric acid has been evaluated in order to isolate intact flavonoids and their glycosides, anthraquinones, tannins, and indigoids from fibre samples. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled to spectroscopic and mass spectrometric detectors was used for the identification of possible marker compounds with special attention paid to natural...

  15. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed...... the effectiveness of the special requirements presently listed in Annex IV, Part A, Section I of Council Directive 2000/29/EC, in reducing the risk of introduction of this pest into the EU territory. The Panel concluded that the main pathways for entry into the EU territory are plant material for propagation...... of the risk assessment area. Cultural practices and control measures currently applied and competition with other Monilinia species cannot prevent the establishment of M. fructicola. The probability of spread is very likely because of the multiple ways of dispersal of the pest. The overall impact...

  16. Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) of natural gas distribution pipelines in urban areas; Analise comparativa dos riscos da operacao de linhas de gas natural em areas urbanas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz Fernando S. de [Energy Solutions South America (Brazil); Cardoso, Cassia de O.; Storch, Rafael [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The natural gas pipeline network grows around the world, but its operation inherently imposes a risk to the people living next to pipelines. Due to this, it is necessary to conduct a risk analysis during the environmental licensing in Brazil. Despite the risk analysis methodology is well established, some points of its application for the distribution pipelines are still under discussion. This paper presents a methodology that examines the influences of major projects and operating parameters on the risk calculation of a distribution pipeline accident in urban areas as well as the possible accident scenarios assessment complexity. The impact of some scenarios has been evaluated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics tool. The results indicate that, under certain conditions, the risks from the pipeline operation under operating pressures of 20 bar may be acceptable in location class 3 or even in class 4. These results play a very important role if management decisions on the growth of the distribution of natural gas network in densely populated areas as well as in the improvement of laws to control the activity of distribution of natural gas. (author)

  17. Identification of high-risk areas for harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena bycatch using remote electronic monitoring and satellite telemetry data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Tougaard, J.

    2016-01-01

    grounds, quantify fishing effort and document harbour porpoise bycatch. Movement data from 66 harbour porpoises equipped with satellite transmitters from 1997 to 2012 were used to model population density. A simple model was constructed to investigate the relationship between the response (number...... telemetry or REM data allow for identification of areas of potential high and low bycatch risk, and better predictions are obtained when combining the 2 sources of data. The final model can thus be used as a tool to identify areas of bycatch risk...... and lower risk of porpoise bycatch. From May 2010 to April 2011, 4 commercial gillnet vessels were equipped with remote electronic monitoring (REM) systems. The REM system recorded time, GPS position and closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage of all gillnet hauls. REM data were used to identify fishing...

  18. Geochemical processes controlling water salinization in an irrigated basin in Spain: Identification of natural and anthropogenic influence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merchán, D., E-mail: d.merchan@igme.es [Geological Survey of Spain — IGME, C/Manuel Lasala 44 9B, 50006 Zaragoza (Spain); Auqué, L.F.; Acero, P.; Gimeno, M.J. [University of Zaragoza — Department of Earth Sciences (Geochemical Modelling Group), C/Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Causapé, J. [Geological Survey of Spain — IGME, C/Manuel Lasala 44 9B, 50006 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2015-01-01

    Salinization of water bodies represents a significant risk in water systems. The salinization of waters in a small irrigated hydrological basin is studied herein through an integrated hydrogeochemical study including multivariate statistical analyses and geochemical modeling. The study zone has two well differentiated geologic materials: (i) Quaternary sediments of low salinity and high permeability and (ii) Tertiary sediments of high salinity and very low permeability. In this work, soil samples were collected and leaching experiments conducted on them in the laboratory. In addition, water samples were collected from precipitation, irrigation, groundwater, spring and surface waters. The waters show an increase in salinity from precipitation and irrigation water to ground- and, finally, surface water. The enrichment in salinity is related to the dissolution of soluble mineral present mainly in the Tertiary materials. Cation exchange, precipitation of calcite and, probably, incongruent dissolution of dolomite, have been inferred from the hydrochemical data set. Multivariate statistical analysis provided information about the structure of the data, differentiating the group of surface waters from the groundwaters and the salinization from the nitrate pollution processes. The available information was included in geochemical models in which hypothesis of consistency and thermodynamic feasibility were checked. The assessment of the collected information pointed to a natural control on salinization processes in the Lerma Basin with minimal influence of anthropogenic factors. - Highlights: • Salinization in Lerma Basin was controlled by the dissolution of soluble salts. • Water salinization and nitrate pollution were found to be independent processes. • High NO{sub 3}, fresh groundwater evolved to lower NO{sub 3}, higher salinity surface water. • Inverse and direct geochemical modeling confirmed the hypotheses. • Salinization was a natural ongoing process

  19. Early identification and preventive care for elevated cardiovascular disease risk within a remote Australian Aboriginal primary health care service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Dea Kerin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the single greatest contributor to the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Our objective is to determine if holistic CVD risk assessment, introduced as part of the new Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Adult Health Check (AHC, results in better identification of elevated CVD risk, improved delivery of preventive care for CVD and improvements in the CVD risk profile for Aboriginal adults in a remote community. Methods Interrupted time series study over six years in a remote primary health care (PHC service involving Aboriginal adults identified with elevated CVD risk (N = 64. Several process and outcome measures were audited at 6 monthly intervals for three years prior to the AHC (the intervention and three years following: (i the proportion of guideline scheduled CVD preventive care services delivered, (ii mean CVD medications prescribed and dispensed, (iii mean PHC consultations, (iv changes in participants' CVD risk factors and estimated absolute CVD risk and (v mean number of CVD events and iatrogenic events. Results Twenty-five percent of AHC participants were identified as having elevated CVD risk. Of these, 84% had not been previously identified during routine care. Following the intervention, there were significant improvements in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD (30% to 53%, and prescription of CVD related medications (28% to 89% (P P = 0.004 following the intervention. However, there were no significant changes in the mean number of PHC consultations or mean number of CVD events or iatrogenic events. Conclusions Holistic CVD risk assessment during an AHC can lead to better and earlier identification of elevated CVD risk, improvement in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD, intensification of treatment for CVD, and improvements in participants' CVD risk profile. Further research is required on

  20. A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

    2007-03-01

    Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

  1. An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

    2009-01-01

    The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

  2. Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

    2018-07-01

    Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V.

    1992-01-01

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH 4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  4. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  5. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  6. Geochemical processes controlling water salinization in an irrigated basin in Spain: identification of natural and anthropogenic influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchán, D; Auqué, L F; Acero, P; Gimeno, M J; Causapé, J

    2015-01-01

    Salinization of water bodies represents a significant risk in water systems. The salinization of waters in a small irrigated hydrological basin is studied herein through an integrated hydrogeochemical study including multivariate statistical analyses and geochemical modeling. The study zone has two well differentiated geologic materials: (i) Quaternary sediments of low salinity and high permeability and (ii) Tertiary sediments of high salinity and very low permeability. In this work, soil samples were collected and leaching experiments conducted on them in the laboratory. In addition, water samples were collected from precipitation, irrigation, groundwater, spring and surface waters. The waters show an increase in salinity from precipitation and irrigation water to ground- and, finally, surface water. The enrichment in salinity is related to the dissolution of soluble mineral present mainly in the Tertiary materials. Cation exchange, precipitation of calcite and, probably, incongruent dissolution of dolomite, have been inferred from the hydrochemical data set. Multivariate statistical analysis provided information about the structure of the data, differentiating the group of surface waters from the groundwaters and the salinization from the nitrate pollution processes. The available information was included in geochemical models in which hypothesis of consistency and thermodynamic feasibility were checked. The assessment of the collected information pointed to a natural control on salinization processes in the Lerma Basin with minimal influence of anthropogenic factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Early menarche, nulliparity and the risk for premature and early natural menopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Gita D; Pandeya, Nirmala; Dobson, Annette J; Chung, Hsin-Fang; Anderson, Debra; Kuh, Diana; Sandin, Sven; Giles, Graham G; Bruinsma, Fiona; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Lee, Jung Su; Mizunuma, Hideki; Cade, Janet E; Burley, Victoria; Greenwood, Darren C; Goodman, Alissa; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld; Adami, Hans-Olov; Demakakos, Panayotes; Weiderpass, Elisabete

    2017-03-01

    Are parity and the timing of menarche associated with premature and early natural menopause? Early menarche (≤11 years) is a risk factor for both premature menopause (final menstrual period, FMP menopause (FMP 40-44 years), a risk that is amplified for nulliparous women. Women with either premature or early menopause face an increased risk of chronic conditions in later life and of early death. Findings from some studies suggest that early menarche and nulliparity are associated with early menopause, however overall the evidence is mixed. Much of the evidence for a direct relationship is hampered by a lack of comparability across studies, failure to adjust for confounding factors and inadequate statistical power. This pooled study comprises 51 450 postmenopausal women from nine observational studies in the UK, Scandinavia, Australia and Japan that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE). Age at menarche (categorized as ≤11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 or more years) and parity (categorized as no children, one child and two or more children) were exposures of interest. Age at FMP was confirmed by at least 12 months of cessation of menses where this was not the result of an intervention (such as surgical menopause due to bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) and categorized as premature menopause (FMP before age 40), early menopause (FMP 40-44 years), 45-49 years, 50-51 years, 52-53 years and 54 or more years. We used multivariate multinomial logistic regression models to estimate relative risk ratio (RRR) and 95% CI for associations between menarche, parity and age at FMP adjusting for within-study correlation. The median age at FMP was 50 years (interquartile range 48-53 years), with 2% of the women experiencing premature menopause and 7.6% early menopause. Women with early menarche (≤11 years, compared with 12-13 years) were at higher risk of premature menopause (RRR 1

  8. Natural gas projects in the developing world: An empirical evaluation of merits, obstacles, and risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mor, Amit

    Significant amounts of natural gas have been discovered in developing countries throughout the years during the course of oil exploration. The vast majority of these resources have not been utilized. Some developing countries may benefit from a carefully planned utilization of their indigenous resources, which can either be exported or used domestically to substitute imported or exportable fuels or feedstock. Governments, potential private sector investors, and financiers have been searching for strategies to promote natural gas schemes, some of which have been in the pipeline for more than two decades. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the crucial factors determining the success or failure of launching natural gas projects in the developing world. The methodology used to evaluate these questions included: (1) establishing a representative sample of natural gas projects in developing countries that were either implemented or failed to materialize during the 1980-1995 period, (2) utilizing a Probit limited dependent variable econometric model in which the explained variable is project success or failure, and (3) choosing representing indicators to reflect the assumed factors affecting project success. The study identified two conditions for project success: (1) the economic viability of the project and (2) securing financing for the investment. The factors that explain the ability or inability of the sponsors to secure financing were: (1) the volume of investment that represented the large capital costs of gas transportation, distribution, and storage, (2) the level of foreign exchange constraint in the host country, and (3) the level of development of the country. The conditions for private sector participation in natural gas projects in developing countries were identified in the study by a Probit model in which the explained variable was private sector participation. The results showed that a critical condition for private sector participation is the

  9. Agreement between student dietitians' identification of refeeding syndrome risk with refeeding guidelines, electrolytes and other dietitians: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, K; Owers, E; Palmer, M

    2015-12-01

    Limited research exists concerning how consistently and accurately student and newly-graduated dietitians are identifying refeeding syndrome risk in hospitalised patients. The present study aimed to determine the consistency of students' and newly-graduated dietitians' classification of refeeding syndrome risk, as well as agreement with the application of comparison tools such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines, patients' electrolytes and supplementation, and clinical dietitians previously surveyed. Recently-graduated and final-year Griffith University dietetics students were invited to complete an online survey. The survey questioned demographics and asked respondents to classify the level of refeeding syndrome risk (i.e. none, some, high, unsure) in 13 case studies. Electrolytes and supplementation data were sourced from electronic patient records. Chi-squared tests, t-tests and linear regression analyses were conducted. Fifty-three eligible people responded [n = 53 of 112, mean (SD) age 26 (4) years, 89% female, 34% graduates]. Respondents' answers were generally more consistent and more likely to agree with comparison tools when two tools showed the same level of refeeding syndrome risk (49-98%, β = 0.626-1.0994, P refeeding identification guidelines, electrolyte levels, supplementation and dietitians previously surveyed did not differ by graduate status, degree level, clinical placement status or having read refeeding syndrome guidelines recently (P > 0.05). Students' and new graduates' identification of refeeding syndrome risk improved when there was consistency between guidelines, electrolytes and dietitians' responses. More research is needed to improve the evidence behind refeeding guidelines, with the aim of enhancing the accuracy and consistency of assessment. © 2014 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  10. Identification of Hotspots of Genetic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes Using GIS Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    BACKGROUND: Having the ability to scan the entire country for potential "hotspots" with increased risk of developing chronic diseases due to various environmental, demographic, and genetic susceptibility factors may inform risk management decisions and enable better env...

  11. Risk assessment, identification, and notification (RAIN) system : a novel approach for traffic management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-31

    Primary research focused on the design and development of an energy-efficient Risk Notification Message Dissemination Protocol (RNMDP) for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). RNMDP propagates Risk Notification Messages (RNMs) from a location of origi...

  12. Identification and analysis of uncertainty in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South and Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keur, van der Peter; Bers, van Caroline; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Yadav, Shobha; Wijaya, Rina; Subiyono, Andreas; Mukerjee, Nandan; Hausmann, Hans Jakob; Hare, Matt; Scheltinga, van Catharien Terwisscha; Pearn, Gregory; Jaspers, Fons

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the mainstreaming of uncertainty in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) using as a case South and Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters. Improvements in the implementation of DRR and CCA at the community

  13. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.; Whittle, R.

    2014-01-01

    Over recent decades there have been moves away from traditional forms of government towards broader practices of "governance". These moves are as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as they are to other societal concerns. Key characteristics of such changes include the emergence of multi-level governance processes, shifts away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors, the creation of new forms of authority and control, and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the varied national contexts in Europe and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is not at all clear. Such developments may also be evaluated in different ways; where some might see progressive reforms, others might see damaging undermining of established arrangements. In this paper, we propose a risk governance profiling framework that can be used to draw out the key characteristics of the ways in which natural hazards are governed in a particular governance setting. The framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national, regional or local context, and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of eight key governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as giving examples of profiles for different hazards in different parts of Europe. We suggest ways in which comparisons can be made between governance profiles, providing a stimulus and focus for debate and discussion around the trends of change in governance practice that have been, and are continuing, to take place.

  14. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as appropriate, direct contact, surface water, ground water, air, food chains, and particulate movement. (b...

  15. The School Professionals' Role in Identification of Youth at Risk of Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Shelley; Caltabiano, Nerina J.

    2009-01-01

    The school professional is in a unique position to play a strategic role in the early identification and prevention of youth suicide. The current study assessed North Queensland teachers' knowledge on youth suicide. The sample comprised 201 secondary school teachers. A survey research design was used and data was collected using a…

  16. Identification of obesity and cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, Preetha L

    2014-02-01

    Obesity in the child and adolescent population is a growing problem. This article discusses the identification of obesity and overweight youth using body mass index and anthropometry and reviews literature to show the relationship between obesity and premature cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessment of natural radioactivity and associated radiological risks from tiles used in Kajang, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullahi, S.; Ismail, A. F.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2018-04-01

    The activity concentration and radiological risk of commonly used flooring materials (tiles) in Malaysia were studied. The natural radionuclide concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured using high-purity germanium detector. The average concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in the samples were 65.75±1.1 Bq kg-1, 61.92±1.43 Bq kg-1 and 617.77±6.72 Bq kg-1 respectively. The mean concentration of radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, external and internal hazard indices and annual effective dose equivalent were 195.21±2.88 Bq kg-1, 92.75±1.27 nGy h-1, 0.53±0.01, 0.7±0.01 and 0.44±0.0 mSv y-1 respectively. The aim was to assess the possible radiological risks attributed from the tile materials. Even though, the activity concentrations were higher than worldwide average values, but none of the radiological impact parameters exceeded the maximum recommended values. Hence, it was concluded that, contribution of tiles to radiation exposure is negligible and therefore, radiologically safe to use as building materials.

  18. Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

  19. A Framework for the Identification of Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roobol, Monique J.; Schroder, Fritz H.; Crawford, E. David; Freedland, Stephen J.; Sartor, A. Oliver; Fleshner, Neil; Andriole, Gerald L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: We assessed the risk of prostate cancer over time, and the implications for screening strategies and potential risk reduction approaches to provide a framework for clinical use of this approach concordant with the use of prostate specific antigen as a marker of current prostate cancer risk.

  20. A Framework for the Identification of Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roobol, Monique J.; Schroder, Fritz H.; Crawford, E. David; Freedland, Stephen J.; Sartor, A. Oliver; Fleshner, Neil; Andriole, Gerald L.

    Purpose: We assessed the risk of prostate cancer over time, and the implications for screening strategies and potential risk reduction approaches to provide a framework for clinical use of this approach concordant with the use of prostate specific antigen as a marker of current prostate cancer risk.

  1. Risk-based prioritization of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khazrajy, Omar S A; Boxall, Alistair B A

    2016-08-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment, raising concerns about their impact on non-target organisms or human health. One region where little is known about the exposure and effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment is Iraq. Due to the high number of pharmaceuticals used by the public health sector in Iraq (hospitals and care centres) and distributed over the counter, there is a need for a systematic approach for identifying substances that should be monitored in the environment in Iraq and assessed in terms of environmental risk. In this study, a risk-based prioritization approach was applied to 99 of the most dispensed pharmaceuticals in three Iraqi cities, Baghdad, Mosul and Basrah. Initially, information on the amounts of pharmaceuticals used in Iraq was obtained. The top used medicines were found to be paracetamol, amoxicillin and metformin with total annual consumption exceeding 1000 tonnes per year. Predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs), derived from ecotoxicological end-points and effects related to the therapeutic mode of action, were then used to rank the pharmaceuticals in terms of risks to different environmental compartments. Active pharmaceutical ingredients used as antibiotics, antidepressants and analgesics were identified as the highest priority in surface water, sediment and the terrestrial environment. Antibiotics were also prioritized according to their susceptibility to kill or inhibit the growth of bacteria or to accelerate the evolution and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant genes in water. Future work will focus on understanding the occurrence, fate and effects of some of highly prioritized substances in the environment.

  2. Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2015-04-01

    Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this

  3. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  4. Examining the Nature of the Association Between Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Nicotine Dependence: A Familial Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederman, Joseph; Petty, Carter R.; Hammerness, Paul; Woodworth, K. Yvonne; Faraone, Stephen V.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The main aim of this study was to use familial risk analysis to examine the association between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and nicotine dependence. Methods Subjects were children with (n = 257) and without (n = 229) ADHD of both sexes ascertained form pediatric and psychiatric referral sources and their first-degree relatives (N = 1627). Results Nicotine dependence in probands increased the risk for nicotine dependence in relatives irrespective of ADHD status. There was no evidence of cosegregation or assortative mating between these disorders. Patterns of familial risk analysis suggest that the association between ADHD and nicotine dependence is most consistent with the hypothesis of independent transmission of these