WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk hazard ratio

  1. A balanced hazard ratio for risk group evaluation from survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branders, Samuel; Dupont, Pierre

    2015-07-30

    Common clinical studies assess the quality of prognostic factors, such as gene expression signatures, clinical variables or environmental factors, and cluster patients into various risk groups. Typical examples include cancer clinical trials where patients are clustered into high or low risk groups. Whenever applied to survival data analysis, such groups are intended to represent patients with similar survival odds and to select the most appropriate therapy accordingly. The relevance of such risk groups, and of the related prognostic factors, is typically assessed through the computation of a hazard ratio. We first stress three limitations of assessing risk groups through the hazard ratio: (1) it may promote the definition of arbitrarily unbalanced risk groups; (2) an apparently optimal group hazard ratio can be largely inconsistent with the p-value commonly associated to it; and (3) some marginal changes between risk group proportions may lead to highly different hazard ratio values. Those issues could lead to inappropriate comparisons between various prognostic factors. Next, we propose the balanced hazard ratio to solve those issues. This new performance metric keeps an intuitive interpretation and is as simple to compute. We also show how the balanced hazard ratio leads to a natural cut-off choice to define risk groups from continuous risk scores. The proposed methodology is validated through controlled experiments for which a prescribed cut-off value is defined by design. Further results are also reported on several cancer prognosis studies, and the proposed methodology could be applied more generally to assess the quality of any prognostic markers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  3. Danger, hazard, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1992-01-01

    The real conditions covered by technical safety studies are described better by the term 'risk' instead of such qualitative terms as 'danger' or 'hazard'. 'Risk' incorporates not only the type of damage, the onset of damage, the probability of damage occurring, but also the extent of damage. In reliability and safety engineering, a probabilistic safety analysis is able to describe a plant most comprehensively by these three elements: What can happen? How frequently will it occur? What are the impacts to be taken into account? PSA is meaningful not only when applied to such technical areas in which there is a risk potential; the holistic analytical process optimizes any kind of system and plant in terms of availability and technical safety. (orig.) [de

  4. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  5. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  6. Risk - hazardous incident - communication 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerling, R.; Obermeier, O.P.

    1995-01-01

    It is difficult to develop an objective approach to risks and effects of a hazardous incident that would be acceptable to the community at large. It is a matter of fact that there is great dissimilarity in the way various social groups perceive and define the risks of a particular technology, or the effects of hazardous incidents, sometimes they have even contrary opinions. Hence, open communication is seriously hampered, which in turn aggravates the problems encountered in this context. This second volume of the publication dealing with the problem area of 'risk - hazardous incident - communication' is intended to reveal patterns of the recurrent process which impedes communication, and to bridge the gaps between the various 'styles' of risk perception and definition. (orig./CB) [de

  7. From Hazard to Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Houben, Geert; Hattersley, Sue

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds...

  8. Risk - hazardous incident - communication 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerling, R.; Obermeier, O.P.

    1994-01-01

    Terms such as 'risk', 'hazardous incident', and 'communication' have become major catchwords in discussions about present-day problems, and may be reduced to a common denominator: disaster. Such an association, however, is inappropriate, as the concept indicated by the term 'risk' for instance covers a wide scale of possible danger. Even the term 'hazardous incident' describes events or conditions that are very different in terms of possible danger, let alone disastrous effects. The discrepancy to be observed between the facts and the public perception usually is due to the fact that people have little insight into the complex of problems involved, and to insufficient communication between the world of experts and the general public. The contributions to this publication present information and discuss a variety of solution sets to improve the communication problems in the context of the problem area of 'risk - hazardous incident - communication'. (orig./CB) [de

  9. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  10. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  11. Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almaula, S.C. [Woodward-Clyde International, Oakland, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Flood Hazard Areas - High Risk

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The S_Fld_Haz_Ar table contains information about the flood hazards within the study area. A spatial file with locational information also corresponds with this data...

  13. Equilibrium in benefits and hazard risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The chapter briefly discussed the following subjects: benefits of nuclear activities, the concept of operation optimization, concept of risks, hazards index, comparison in production costs of nuclear power generation and others sources of power generation

  14. Magnetic resonance imaging: hazard, risk and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Pradeep; Suri, S.; Singh, P.

    2001-01-01

    The hazard and risk associated with magnetic resonance imaging is a matter of concern. In 1982, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), USA issued guidelines to Hospital's Investigational Review Board (IRBs) in 'Guidelines for Evaluating Electromagnetic Exposure Risks for Trials of Clinical Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)'. In 1997, the Berufsgenossenschaft (BG), professional association for precision engineering and electronics of Germany, in their preliminary proposal for safety limits extended their concerns on static magnetic field. Owing to both time varying and static magnetic fields applied in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) this became of immediate concern to user community to assess the potential hazard and risk associated with the NMR system

  15. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  16. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  17. Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

  18. Hazardous materials routing - risk management of mismanagement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glickman, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    Along with emergency planning and preparedness, the placement of restrictions on routing has become an increasingly popular device for managing the highway and rail risks of hazardous materials transportation. Federal studies conducted in 1985 indicate that at that time there were 513 different state and local restrictions on the routing of hazardous materials for these two modes of transportation, and that there were 136 state and local notification requirements, that is, restrictions that take the form of a statute or ordinance requiring advance warning or periodic reporting about hazardous materials shipments. Routing restrictions also take the form of prohibiting the use of road, a tunnel, or a bridge for a specified set of hazardous materials

  19. Risk management at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Doty, C.B.

    1990-01-01

    The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA) provided the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with additional resources and direction for the identification, evaluation, and remediation of hazardous waste sites in the United States. SARA established more stringent requirements for the Superfund program, both in terms of the pace of the program and the types of remedial alternatives selected. The central requirement is that remedial alternatives be ''protective of public health and the environment'' and ''significantly and permanently'' reduce the toxicity, mobility, or volume of contaminants. The mandate also requires that potential risk be considered in the decision-making process. This document discusses risk management at hazardous waste sites. Topics include selection of sites for placement on the National Priority List, risk assessment and the decision process, risk reduction and remedial alternative selection, and aquifer restoration. 10 refs., 2 figs

  20. Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

    2004-10-01

    Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

  1. The role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, J.S.

    1982-01-01

    The author places some prior natural hazards research into the context of risk from new technologies to show that some beneficial technologies increase the risk from natural hazards. He examines the role of new technologies in risks from natural hazards in a historical perspective, using examples from research on mountain hazards

  2. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

  3. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the

  4. Defense against terroristic hazards and risk by building planning law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopkins, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The book on defense against terroristic hazards and risk by building planning law includes the following issues: Introduction: civil engineering and safety. Risk, hazards and urban planning: historical and actual examples for the constructional danger prevention, terroristic threat and urban planning. Risk, hazards and terrorism: sociology and risk, law and risk, terrorism - risk or hazard? Answer to uncertainty - risk prevention, catastrophe law as link. Risk, hazard, terrorism and the public building and regional planning law: regional planning law as point of origin, building law and terrorism, possibility of control by the legal building regulations.

  5. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  6. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  7. The Psychology of Hazard Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. F.

    2012-12-01

    A critical step in preparing for natural hazards is understanding the risk: what is the hazard, its likelihood and range of impacts, and what are the vulnerabilities of the community? Any hazard forecast naturally includes a degree of uncertainty, and often these uncertainties are expressed in terms of probabilities. There is often a strong understanding of probability among the physical scientists and emergency managers who create hazard forecasts and issue watches, warnings, and evacuation orders, and often such experts expect similar levels of risk fluency among the general public—indeed, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) states in the introduction to its earthquake rupture forecast maps that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities—from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [1] However, cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [see, e.g., 2-5] that the WGCEP's expectation of probability literacy is inaccurate. People neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probability information, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [6]. Even the most ubiquitous of probabilistic information—weather forecasts—are systematically misinterpreted [7]. So while disaster risk analysis and assessment is undoubtedly a critical step in public preparedness and hazard mitigation plans, it is equally important that scientists and practitioners understand the common psychological barriers to accurate probability perception before they attempt to communicate hazard risks to the public. This paper discusses several common, systematic distortions in probability perception and use, including: the influence of personal experience on use of statistical information; temporal discounting and construal level theory; the effect

  8. Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

  9. Engineered nanomaterials: exposures, hazards, and risk prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacPhail Robert C

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Nanotechnology presents the possibility of revolutionizing many aspects of our lives. People in many settings (academic, small and large industrial, and the general public in industrialized nations are either developing or using engineered nanomaterials (ENMs or ENM-containing products. However, our understanding of the occupational, health and safety aspects of ENMs is still in its formative stage. A survey of the literature indicates the available information is incomplete, many of the early findings have not been independently verified, and some may have been over-interpreted. This review describes ENMs briefly, their application, the ENM workforce, the major routes of human exposure, some examples of uptake and adverse effects, what little has been reported on occupational exposure assessment, and approaches to minimize exposure and health hazards. These latter approaches include engineering controls such as fume hoods and personal protective equipment. Results showing the effectiveness - or lack thereof - of some of these controls are also included. This review is presented in the context of the Risk Assessment/Risk Management framework, as a paradigm to systematically work through issues regarding human health hazards of ENMs. Examples are discussed of current knowledge of nanoscale materials for each component of the Risk Assessment/Risk Management framework. Given the notable lack of information, current recommendations to minimize exposure and hazards are largely based on common sense, knowledge by analogy to ultrafine material toxicity, and general health and safety recommendations. This review may serve as an overview for health and safety personnel, management, and ENM workers to establish and maintain a safe work environment. Small start-up companies and research institutions with limited personnel or expertise in nanotechnology health and safety issues may find this review particularly useful.

  10. Teaching Coastal Hazard, Risk, and Environmental Justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, C. H.; Manduca, C. A.; Blockstein, D.; Davis, F.; McDaris, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Geoscience literacy and expertise play a role in all societal issues that involve the Earth. Issues that range from environmental degradation and natural hazards to creating sustainable economic systems or livable cities. Human health and resilience also involves the Earth. Environmental hazard issues have dimensions and consequences that have connections to environmental justice and disproportionate impacts on people based on their ethnicity, gender, cultural and socioeconomic conditions. Often these dimensions are hidden or unexplored in common approaches to teaching about hazards. However, they can provide importance context and meaning to students who would not otherwise see themselves in STEM disciplines. Teaching geoscience in a framework of societal issues may be an important mechanism for building science and sustainability capacity in future graduates. In May 2015, the NSF STEP center InTeGrate held a workshop in New Orleans, LA on teaching about Coastal Hazards, Risk and Environmental Justice. This was an opportunity to bring together people who use these topics as a powerful topic for transdisciplinary learning that connects science to local communities. This workshop was tailored for faculty members from minority-serving institutions and other colleges and universities that serve populations that are under-represented in the geosciences and related fields. The workshop outcome was a set of strategies for accomplishing this work, including participants' experience teaching with local cases, making connections to communities, and building partnerships with employers to understand workforce needs related to interdisciplinary thinking, sustainability science and risk. The participants articulated both the great need and opportunity for educators to help learners to explore these dimensions with their students as well as the challenge of learning to teach across disciplines and using controversial topics.

  11. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  12. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  13. GEOMORPHOLOGICAL HAZARDS AND RISKS IN JIU DEFILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. SĂNDULACHE

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Jiu Defile has a length of 33 km and is located in the Southern Carpathians, between Parâng Mountains (east and Vâlcan Mountains (west. This paper stars from the analysis of field mapping and measurements (based on topographic maps, scale of 1:25 000, and data from local institutions and other sources (web, press. In Jiu Defile, geomorphological hazards results from the combined action of meteorological conditions and other factors such as geology, geomorphology and socio-economic development. They may affect transport infrastructure, which is at risk especially in spring and summer.

  14. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  15. Indicators of hazard, vulnerability and risk in urban drainage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauger, Mikkel Boye; Mouchel, J.-M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2006-01-01

    An alternative definition of risk is proposed as risk being a function of the hazard, which is related to the risk source and the vulnerability, which is related to the risk object. The same hazard will not cause the same effect on all risk objects, Therefore, vulnerability is introduced...... as a system-dependent property to be the link between the hazard and the effect so that the combination of the occurrence of a hazard and the vulnerability of an object results in the effect. In risk communication indicators are helpful since they help to simplify the message that has to be communicated...

  16. Managing hazards in place: The risks of residual risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2017-10-01

    Managing hazards in place (MHP) is a policy instrument in environmental health that allows less than complete removal, abatement, or remediation of environmental hazards. The practice of minimizing exposure to hazards rather than removing them is widely recognized as part of the toolbox of environmental protection for human and ecosystem health. The concept of managing hazards in place is embedded in several environmental statutes and regulations in the US notably the waste management regulations, as well as in the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. While this commentary focuses largely on applications of MHP in the US, this policy is also utilized by agencies in many other countries for managing hazardous waste sites, lead in housing and drinking water systems, and environmental contamination of rivers and estuaries. The rationale for this concept is not difficult to understand: MHP policies can reduce the costs of meeting environmental goals; it can provide opportunities for access to resources that have been contaminated by past actions such as waste disposal, and it can enhance land and property values as well as tax revenues all of which are important to home owners and communities. The concerns related to this concept are also not difficult to understand: an incompletely abated or contained hazard may present future exposure risks to humans and environmental biota. Further, the compromise implicit in MHP is the assurance of indefinite oversight and monitoring to detect any releases. To that extent, MHP involves both sociology as well as toxicology and the exposure sciences. Because of the prevalence of managing hazards in place, this commentary suggests that evaluation of its performance is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal

  18. Potential hazards and risks associated with the aquaculture industry ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aquaculture, the farming of aquatic organisms, is fraught with potential hazards and risks which are categorized into occupational, environmental, food safety and public health. This paper reviewed major hazards and risks associated with the aquaculture industry and proffered strategies for their management and control.

  19. 48 CFR 235.070 - Indemnification against unusually hazardous risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Indemnification against unusually hazardous risks. 235.070 Section 235.070 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEFENSE... DEVELOPMENT CONTRACTING 235.070 Indemnification against unusually hazardous risks. ...

  20. Regional risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials

    OpenAIRE

    Nardini, L.; Aparicio, L.; Bandoni, A.; Tonelli, S. M.

    2003-01-01

    An increasing concern over the level of risk associated with hazardous materials transportation has led international efforts to focus on risk assessment at regional level. Following this trend, the aim of this work is to review the latest procedures for analysing the regional risks resulting from hazardous materials transportation by means of road and rail. In particular, two methodologies are reviewed and discussed, a method recently developed at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [1] an...

  1. Hazardous waste management: Reducing the risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, B.A.; Hulme, J.A.; Johnson, C.

    1986-01-01

    Congress has strengthened the laws under which active hazardous waste facilities are regulated. Nevertheless, after visiting a number of active treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, the Council on Economic Priorities (CEP) found that not only do generators not know which facilities are the best, but that the EPA has not always selected the best facilities to receive wastes removed from Superfund sites. Other facilities were better managed, better located, and better at using more advanced technologies than the facilities the EPA selected. In fact, of the ten facilities CEP evaluated in detail the EPA chose the one that performed worst - CECOS International, Inc. in Williamsburg, Ohio - to receive Superfund wastes in more instances than any of the other nine facilities. Data from a house subcommittee survey indicate that almost half of the operating hazardous waste facilities the EPA chose to receive wastes removed from Superfund sites may have contaminated groundwater. Some of the chosen facilities may even be partially responsible for a share of the wastes they are being paid to clean up. Hazardous waste management strategies and technology, how to evaluate facilities, and case studies of various corporations and hazardous waste management facilities are discussed

  2. Moderating Climate Hazard Risk through Cooperation in Asian Drylands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy Sternberg

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Asia drylands face increasing climate hazard risk, changing socio-economic forces, and environmental challenges that affect community viability. As home to >1 billion residents, deserts are at the centre of the continent’s climate-human predicament. Extreme water scarcity, dependence on food imports and now conflict increase hazard exposure across shared drylands, yet management differs from state to state. This paper argues that a more coherent strategy for mitigating risk would be based on natural environments. Linking hazards with livelihoods and social stability identifies how recent drought events disrupted ecosystems and societies. This results in borders rather than geography defining risk and response. Developing a dryland perspective across the continent can be an effective approach to reduce hazard risk and improve cooperation across Asia’s extensive arid lands.

  3. Self-Medication: potential risks and hazards among pregnant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Self-Medication: potential risks and hazards among pregnant women in Uyo, ... Reasons for using these substances range from protection from witches and ... shows that self-medication is common among pregnant women in our environment.

  4. Negotiated risks. International talks on hazardous issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avenhaus, Rudolf; Sjoestedt, Gunnar

    2009-01-01

    This book fills a major gap in the risk literature, as it brings together two research strands: risks, to which IIASA's research programs have contributed significantly over the years, culminating in the Risk and Vulnerability Program, and international negotiations, on which there is an abundance of published work, much of it resulting from the work of IIASA's Processes of International Negotiations Program. Throughout the book, it is pointed out that there are actor-driven risks, namely those posed by international negotiations themselves, and issue-driven risks which are caused by large-scale human activities. In fact, negotiated risks deal with some of the most serious risks facing humanity: climate change, nuclear activities, and weapons of mass destruction. The book contains both scientific analyses on the nature of internationally negotiated risks and analyses of concrete risks, both of which are of immense practical relevance in the larger context of international negotiations. (orig.)

  5. Hazard assessment and risk management of offshore production chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schobben, H.P.M.; Scholten, M.C.T.; Vik, E.A.; Bakke, S.

    1994-01-01

    There is a clear need for harmonization of the regulations with regard to the use and discharge of drilling and production chemicals in the North Sea. Therefore the CHARM (Chemical Hazard Assessment and Risk Management) model was developed. Both government (of several countries) and industry (E and P and chemical suppliers) participated in the project. The CHARM model is discussed and accepted by OSPARCON. The CHARM model consists of several modules. The model starts with a prescreening on the basis of hazardous properties like persistency, accumulation potential and the appearance on black lists. The core of the model.consists of modules for hazard assessment and risk analysis. Hazard assessment covers a general environmental evaluation of a chemical on the basis of intrinsic properties of that chemical. Risk analysis covers a more specific evaluation of the environmental impact from the use of a production chemical, or a combination of chemicals, under actual conditions. In the risk management module the user is guided to reduce the total risk of all chemicals used on a platform by the definition of measures in the most cost-effective way. The model calculates the environmental impact for the marine environment. Thereto three parts are distinguished: pelagic, benthic and food chain. Both hazard assessment and risk analysis are based on a proportional comparison of an estimated PEC with an estimated NEC. The PEC is estimated from the use, release, dilution and fate of the chemical and the NEC is estimated from the available toxicity data of the chemicals

  6. Risk factors for hazardous events in olfactory-impaired patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pence, Taylor S; Reiter, Evan R; DiNardo, Laurence J; Costanzo, Richard M

    2014-10-01

    Normal olfaction provides essential cues to allow early detection and avoidance of potentially hazardous situations. Thus, patients with impaired olfaction may be at increased risk of experiencing certain hazardous events such as cooking or house fires, delayed detection of gas leaks, and exposure to or ingestion of toxic substances. To identify risk factors and potential trends over time in olfactory-related hazardous events in patients with impaired olfactory function. Retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients presenting to a university smell and taste clinic between 1983 and 2013. A total of 704 patients had both clinical olfactory testing and a hazard interview and were studied. On the basis of olfactory function testing results, patients were categorized as normosmic (n = 161), mildly hyposmic (n = 99), moderately hyposmic (n = 93), severely hyposmic (n = 142), and anosmic (n = 209). Patient evaluation including interview, examination, and olfactory testing. Incidence of specific olfaction-related hazardous events (ie, burning pots and/or pans, starting a fire while cooking, inability to detect gas leaks, inability to detect smoke, and ingestion of toxic substances or spoiled foods) by degree of olfactory impairment. The incidence of having experienced any hazardous event progressively increased with degree of impairment: normosmic (18.0%), mildly hyposmic (22.2%), moderately hyposmic (31.2%), severely hyposmic (32.4%), and anosmic (39.2%). Over 3 decades there was no significant change in the overall incidence of hazardous events. Analysis of demographic data (age, sex, race, smoking status, and etiology) revealed significant differences in the incidence of hazardous events based on age (among 397 patients hazardous event, vs 31 of 146 patients ≥65 years [21.3%]; P hazardous event, vs 73 of 265 men [27.6%]; P = .009), and race (among 98 African Americans, 41 [41.8%] with hazardous event, vs 134 of 434 whites [30.9%]; P = .04

  7. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  8. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  9. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  10. The median hazard ratio: a useful measure of variance and general contextual effects in multilevel survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Wagner, Philippe; Merlo, Juan

    2017-03-15

    Multilevel data occurs frequently in many research areas like health services research and epidemiology. A suitable way to analyze such data is through the use of multilevel regression models (MLRM). MLRM incorporate cluster-specific random effects which allow one to partition the total individual variance into between-cluster variation and between-individual variation. Statistically, MLRM account for the dependency of the data within clusters and provide correct estimates of uncertainty around regression coefficients. Substantively, the magnitude of the effect of clustering provides a measure of the General Contextual Effect (GCE). When outcomes are binary, the GCE can also be quantified by measures of heterogeneity like the Median Odds Ratio (MOR) calculated from a multilevel logistic regression model. Time-to-event outcomes within a multilevel structure occur commonly in epidemiological and medical research. However, the Median Hazard Ratio (MHR) that corresponds to the MOR in multilevel (i.e., 'frailty') Cox proportional hazards regression is rarely used. Analogously to the MOR, the MHR is the median relative change in the hazard of the occurrence of the outcome when comparing identical subjects from two randomly selected different clusters that are ordered by risk. We illustrate the application and interpretation of the MHR in a case study analyzing the hazard of mortality in patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction at hospitals in Ontario, Canada. We provide R code for computing the MHR. The MHR is a useful and intuitive measure for expressing cluster heterogeneity in the outcome and, thereby, estimating general contextual effects in multilevel survival analysis. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  12. Risk management of onsite transportation of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Field, J.G.

    1992-10-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site has recently undergone a significant change in its mission. The focus of site-wide operations has been shifted from production to environmental restoration. As a result, there is a significant increase in quantities of the radioactive wastes and other hazardous materials to be packaged and transported onsite. In response to the elevated transportation activities, the operations and engineering contractor for the Hanford Site, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to further enhance the safe operations of the onsite packaging and transportation activities involving radioactive and other hazardous materials. This paper summarizes Westinghouse Hanford's proposed risk assessment and risk management methodology for onsite transportation of hazardous materials. The proposed Westinghouse Hanford risk assessment and management methodology for onsite packaging and transportation has three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization process. The purposes are to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable, and to further reduce the overall risk for current and future onsite transportation activities

  13. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  14. Application of risk assessment techniques to 'major hazard' pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, R A

    1982-12-01

    A risk analysis for a hazardous-material pipeline (carrying LPG, ammonia, or high-pressure gas) is presented. The analysis gives results in a form that will assist the decisionmaker in pipeline planning and route selection. The large inventory of hazardous materials in such pipelines means that risks exist even though the accident record of pipeline transportation compares favorably with that for competing modes of transport. Risk analysis techniques - commonly used in the civil aviation, nuclear, and process industries - can be equally well applied to pipelines and can produce results that not only give a measure of the risk but also indicate the principal sources of risk and possible areas for improvement. A number of pipeline risk analyses have demonstrated the viability of the technique and its usefulness as an aid to practical engineering in design, planning, and maintenance/repair phases.

  15. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  16. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  17. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  18. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  19. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garcin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

    The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

    This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

  20. Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

    2012-12-01

    Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

  1. Recent developments in the external hazard risk assessment in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Ukrainian legislation prescribes safety analysis reports for all operating and future NPPs. Apart from main report they must include: safety analysis supplement; design basis accident analysis; beyond design basis accident analysis; probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); technical; substantiation of safety. Regulatory requirements to PSA contents cover the criteria for core damage frequency and large radioactive release frequency. Initiating events taken into account are internal events; internal hazards and external hazards. External hazards to be considered are seismic events, external fires, external floods, extreme ambient temperatures, aircraft crashes, etc. Current status of PSA development is related to operating WWER-440 and WWER-1000 NPPs and NPPs under construction. This presentation describes in detail the external hazard risk assessment for South Ukraine including methodology applied and expected future activities

  2. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  3. Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

  4. Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper deals with landslide hazards and risk analysis of Penang Island, Malaysia using Geo- .... require a priori knowledge of the main causes of landslides .... Soil. Rengam-bukit. 289450. 10.03. 96. 20.73. 2.07 temiang association. Selangor-kangkong. 34197. 1.18. 0. 0.00. 0.00 association. Local alluvium-. 373655.

  5. Hazard and risk of herbicides for marine microalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sjollema, S.B.; Martínez-García, G.; van der Geest, H.G.; Kraak, M.H.S.; Booij, P.; Vethaak, A.D.; Admiraal, W.

    2014-01-01

    Due to their specific effect on photosynthesis, herbicides pose a potential threat to coastal and estuarine microalgae. However, comprehensive understanding of the hazard and risk of these contaminants is currently lacking. Therefore the aim of the present study was to investigate the toxic effects

  6. Choice of corporate risk management tools under moral hazard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bena, Jan

    -, č. 298 (2006), s. 1-43 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : risk management * corporate insurance * moral hazard Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp298.pdf

  7. Choice of corporate risk management tools under moral hazard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bena, Jan

    -, č. 566 (2006), s. 1-41 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : risk management * corporate insurance * moral hazard Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://fmg.lse.ac.uk/publications/searchdetail.php?pubid=1&wsid=1&wpdid=800

  8. Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

    2012-04-01

    An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds

  9. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Ph; Pages, P

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago.

  10. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago

  11. Risk perceptions and technological hazards: a contextual view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, G.; Simmons, P.; Irwin, A.; Wynne, B.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the study of public perceptions of risk has given rise to a number of different (and sometimes conflicting) perspectives. Although the differences between these approaches are not trivial, recent reviews have suggested that there may be some points of convergence. In particular, recent work within the different traditions has emphasised the importance of factors such as trust and power for understanding public perceptions of risk. These factors take us beyond the characteristics of the risks themselves, which were the focus of influential work in the psychometric tradition and into a consideration of the social and cultural context within which potentially hazardous technologies are encountered and evaluated. In this paper we examine the way in which the lay public understand and respond to a particular class of technological risks - those associated with site-based major accident hazards. On the basis of empirical research, we argue that an appreciation of the different contexts within which citizens encounter such risks is crucial to understanding the dynamics of public concerns. We illustrate our argument by examining the different ways in which contextual factors influence perceptions. The discussion draws upon a recently completed study of public perceptions of the risks at seven major hazard sites in the UK, which was funded the by UK Health and Safety Executive. (authors)

  12. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  13. Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

  14. Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

  15. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

  16. Public 'in'tolerance of technological hazards and risk policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, P.; Walker, G.; Irwin, A.; Wynne, B.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: it has been recognised that the notion that there is an 'acceptable' level of risk to the public from technological hazards is in many cases inappropriate. UK government policy on major industrial hazards is informed by the principle of 'tolerability' of risk (TOR). In the paper we examine this principle and how it relates to the views of people who live day-to-day with such hazards. The analysis of public views is based on the results of a Q-method study carried out in the course of recent research funded by the UK Health and Safety Executive. The Q-method study distinguishes between different bases of public toleration - and lack of toleration - of risk. The study found lack a toleration to be based on a single cluster of factors, whereas the bases for public toleration of risk were far more differentiated. The results are outlined in the paper. In the concluding section of the paper we examine the implications of these results for policy, in particular for the application of the TOR principle when setting risk criteria. (authors)

  17. Risk assessment of hazardous waste transport - perspectives of GIS application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, R.E.; Dumitrescu, M.; Stefanescu, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the increasing public awareness of the potential risks associated with waste transport, the environmental impact assessment of this activity has become an issue of major importance. This paper presents a project proposal, which can establish a national action plan for waste transport evaluation. Such a programme is sustained by the necessity to obtain an adequate method for the rapid and efficient estimation of individual and social risks due to the transport of hazardous substances in Romania. The main objective is to develop regional strategies for risk assessment in comprising: establishing the areas that must be investigated and their particular characteristics; identifying the transport activities in the areas; determining hazards; establishing the analysis criteria and prioritizing the study areas; evaluating continuous emissions; studying major accidents; studying population health; classifying the risks; establishing regional strategies; implementing political and regulatory measures. The project expectation is to provide a decision tool for risk managers and authorities in order to control or limit transportation and the storage of hazardous substances.(author)

  18. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  19. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  20. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  1. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  2. Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety

  3. Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.

    1980-01-01

    Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)

  4. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  5. Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjin Lee

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes. The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards.

  6. Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Minjin; Kim, Joo-Hyon; Lee, Daeyeop; Kim, Jaewoo; Lim, Hyunwoo; Seo, Jungkwan; Park, Young-Kwon

    2018-01-01

    The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes). The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards. PMID:29652814

  7. Hazard and risk of herbicides for marine microalgae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjollema, Sascha B.; MartínezGarcía, Gema; Geest, Harm G. van der; Kraak, Michiel H.S.; Booij, Petra; Vethaak, A. Dick; Admiraal, Wim

    2014-01-01

    Due to their specific effect on photosynthesis, herbicides pose a potential threat to coastal and estuarine microalgae. However, comprehensive understanding of the hazard and risk of these contaminants is currently lacking. Therefore the aim of the present study was to investigate the toxic effects of four ubiquitous herbicides (atrazine, diuron, Irgarol ® 1051 and isoproturon) and herbicide mixtures on marine microalgae. Using a Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) fluorometry based bioassay we demonstrated a clear species and herbicide specific toxicity and showed that the current environmental legislation does not protect algae sufficiently against diuron and isoproturon. Although a low actual risk of herbicides in the field was demonstrated, monitoring data revealed that concentrations occasionally reach potential effect levels. Hence it cannot be excluded that herbicides contribute to observed changes in phytoplankton species composition in coastal waters, but this is likely to occur only occasionally. - Highlights: • The hazard of herbicides for microalgae is compound and species specific. • In general a low risk although occasional potential effect levels are reached. • Current legislation does not protect marine microalgae sufficiently. - The hazard of herbicides in the coastal waters is compound and species specific and although the general risk in the field is low, occasionally potential effect levels are reached

  8. Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

    2013-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

  9. Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzabal, Omar A; Rowe, Ellen

    2017-04-01

    The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56%) provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27%) provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20%) provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32%) did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important food safety terms that serve as building blocks for the understanding of more complex food safety topics.

  10. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  11. Mitigating the Risk of Environmental Hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-28

    wildfires.9 Infectious hazards in Mexico pose an intermediate risk of disease and include food or waterborne illness, hepatitis, dengue fever , Valley Fever ...the type of health threat that is posed. 12 Nanotechnology: Within the Latin American region , Brazil , Argentina and Mexico are leaders in...07/25/ dengue -on-the-loose/ (accessed 11 October 2011). 41. Environmental Protection Agency, State of the Border Region Indicators Report 2005, EPA

  12. Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar A. Oyarzabal

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56% provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27% provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20% provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32% did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P < 0.05. Thirty participants (42% stated that the most valuable thing they learned with this interactive module was the difference between hazard and risk, and 40 participants (65% responded that they did not attend similar presentations in the past. The fact that less than one third of the participants answered properly to the definitions of hazard and risk at baseline is not surprising. However, these results highlight the need for the incorporation of modules to discuss these important food safety terms and include more active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important

  13. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  14. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  15. Some problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.

    1984-01-01

    Rational regulation of environmental hazards may be based on the implicit underlying principles that government actions should enhance the average quality of life for those governed and maintain some degree of equity in the distribution of benefits, costs, and risks. Issues arising from these principles have practical implications for risk management policy in general and for the development and application of radiological protection criteria in particular. One of the issues is the appropriate distribution of expenditures for regulating different risks. The total resources available for risk regulation are finite; hence, minimizing the total risk subject to this constraint is an appropriate strategy for optimum risk management. Using a simple model, it is shown that this strategy leads to a distribution of expenditures between different risks such that a greater fraction is allocated to a risk with a higher cost of mitigation or control but the allocation is limited in such a manner that the fractional contribution of that risk to the total risk is also higher. The effect of deviating from this strategy is examined. It is shown that reducing a single risk of concern below the optimum value by a factor 1/F can increase the total risk by about F times the risk of concern. Taking into account the large uncertainties in risk assessment for establishing radiological protection criteria, it is argued that an optimum strategy for remedial action should (1) set basic risk limits as high as reasonable; (2) use realistic, case-specific data and analyses in deriving allowable residual contamination levels from basic risk limits; and (3) implement a policy of reducing residual contamination to levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) within the constraints imposed by optimum resource allocation. 10 references

  16. Problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    Rational regulation of environmental hazards may be based on the implicit underlying principles that government actions should enhance the average quality of life for those governed and maintain some degree of equity in the distribution of benefits, costs, and risks. Issues arising from these principles have practical implications for risk management policy in general and for the development and application of radiological protection criteria in particular. One of the issues is the appropriate distribution of expenditures for regulating different risks. The total resources available for risk regulation are finite; hence, minimizing the total risk subject to this constraint is an appropriate strategy for optimum risk management. Using a simple model, it is shown that this strategy leads to a distribution of expenditures between different risks such that a greater fraction is allocated to a risk with a higher cost of mitigation or control but the allocation is limited in such a manner that the fractional contribution of that risk to the total risk is also higher. The effect of deviating from this strategy is examined. It is shown that reducing a single risk of concern below the optimum value by a factor 1/F can increase the total risk by about F times the risk of concern. Taking into account the large uncertainties in risk assessment for establishing radiological protection criteria, it is argued that an optimum strategy for remedial action should (1) set basic risk limits as high as reasonable; (2) use realistic, case-specific data and analyses in deriving allowable residual contamination levels from basic risk limits; and (3) implement a policy of reducing residual contamination to levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) within the constraints imposed by optimum resource allocation. 10 references, 1 figure

  17. Risk and Cooperation: Managing Hazardous Fuel in Mixed Ownership Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, A. Paige; Charnley, Susan

    2012-06-01

    Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

  18. Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

    2015-10-01

    Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  19. Risks and hazards from conventional and radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iyer, P.S.; Ganguly, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    Beneficial uses of radioisotopes in medicine, industry, agriculture and research are discussed. In absence of adequate safety precautions, uses of radiation may also result in harmful biological effects or genetic effects. Radiation risks and hazards are evaluated by comparing with other risks and hazards which are routinely encountered. The risk of fatality per year by various causes in U.S.A. is given. It is stated with examples and observations that some of the routine habits and necessities and minor luxuries are more risky than radiation risks. Countrywide radiation safety program in India by the Department of Atomic Energy is described in brief. Data are given to show that the risks from radiation are much lower in comparison with many conventional sources. More efficient equipment such as image intensifier is recommended to help to reduce the patient dose. It is stated that caution has to be exercised while handling the X-ray machines which may be harmful not only to patients but to doctors also. As regards, nuclear medicine, it is mentioned that though it is a fast expanding speciality in India, the number of procedures carried out in various centres is small as compared to U.S.A. and France. Some instances are given to show the consequences of the ignorance of the radiation hazards in operating machines in X-ray and gamma ray beam therapy facilities. A survey made by DRP, BARC revealed that some research laboratories lacked basic radiation protection requirements in using X-ray crystallography or analytical equipment. (B.G.W.)

  20. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  1. Perceived risk impacts from siting hazardous waste facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemphill, R.C.; Edwards, B.K.; Bassett, G.W. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes methods for evaluating perception-based economic impacts resulting from siting hazardous waste facilities. Socioeconomic impact analysis has devoted increasing attention to the potential implications of changed public perceptions of risk due to an activity or situation. This contrasts with traditional socioecconomic impact analysis, which has been limited to measuring direct and indirect consequences of activities, e.g., the employment effects of placing a military base in a specified location. Approaches to estimating economic impacts due to changes in public perceptions are ex ante or ex post. The former predict impacts prior to the construction and operation of a facility, while the later is based on impacts that become evident only when the facility is up and running. The theoretical foundations and practical requirements for demonstrating impacts, resulting from the siting of a hazardous facility are described. The theoretical rationale supporting the study of perceived risk research is presented along with discussion of problems that arise in demonstrating the existence and measuring the quantitative importance of economic impacts due to changes in perceived risk. The high-level nuclear waste facility being considered in Nevada is presented as an example in which there is potential for impacts, but where the link between perceived risk and economic conditions has not yet been developed

  2. Risk management of hazardous substances in a circular economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodar, Charles; Spijker, Job; Lijzen, Johannes; Waaijers-van der Loop, Susanne; Luit, Richard; Heugens, Evelyn; Janssen, Martien; Wassenaar, Pim; Traas, Theo

    2018-04-15

    The ambitions for a circular economy are high and unambiguous, but day-to-day experience shows that the transition still has many difficulties to overcome. One of the current hurdles is the presence of hazardous substances in waste streams that enter or re-enter into the environment or the technosphere. The key question is: do we have the appropriate risk management tools to control any risks that might arise from the re-using and recycling of materials? We present some recent cases that illustrate current practice and complexity in the risk management of newly-formed circular economy chains. We also highlight how separate legal frameworks are still disconnected from each other in these cases, and how circular economy initiatives interlink with the European REACH regulation. Furthermore, we introduce a novel scheme describing how to decide whether a(n)(additional) risk assessment is necessary with regard to the re-use of materials containing hazardous substances. Finally, we present our initial views on new concepts for the fundamental integration of sustainability and safety aspects. These concepts should be the building blocks for the near future shifts in both policy frameworks and voluntary initiatives that support a sound circular economy transition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Perceived risk impacts from siting hazardous waste facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemphill, R.C.; Edwards, B.K.; Bassett, G.W. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes methods for evaluating perception-based economic impacts resulting from siting hazardous waste facilities. Socioeconomic impact analysis has devoted increasing attention to the potential implications of changed public perceptions of risk due to an activity or situation. This contrasts with traditional socioeconomic impact analysis, which has been limited to measuring direct and indirect consequences of activities, e.g., the employment effects of placing a military base in a specified location. Approaches to estimating economic impacts due to changes in public perceptions are ex ante or ex post. The former predict impacts prior to the construction and operation of a facility, while the later is based on impacts that become evident only when the facility is up and running. The theoretical foundations and practical requirements for demonstrating impacts resulting from the siting of a hazardous facility are described. The theoretical rationale supporting the study of perceived risk research is presented along with discussion of problems that arise in demonstrating the existence and measuring the quantitative importance of economic impacts due to changes in perceived risk. The high-level nuclear waste facility being considered in Nevada is presented as an example in which there is potential for impacts, but where the link between perceived risk and economic conditions has not yet been developed

  4. Bioassay-based risk assessment of hazardous waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Brown, K.W.; He, L.Y. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Microbial bioassays have been used to assess the genotoxic hazard at more than 30 different hazardous waste sites. Environmental samples were extracted with dichloromethane and methanol, and the resulting residue tested using GC/MS analysis as well as the Salmonella Microsomal and E. coli Prophage Induction assays. At a munitions wastewater contaminated site, there was no correlation between mutagenicity in bacteria, and the risk as estimated from chemical analysis data of trinitrotoluene. Samples 202 and 204 from a coal gasification site contained 72 mg/kg and 9 mg/kg benzo(a)pyrene, whereas the mutagenic responses of these samples were 231 net revertants/mg and 902 revertants/mg, respectively. The data suggest that microbial bioassays provide a valuable tool for monitoring the interactions of the components of a complex mixture.

  5. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  6. Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie

    2008-06-11

    Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes.

  7. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  8. Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

  9. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  10. Male reproductive organs are at risk from environmental hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonde, Jens Peter

    2010-01-01

    are the best documented risk factors for impaired male reproductive function and include physical exposures (radiant heat, ionizing radiation, high frequency electromagnetic radiation), chemical exposures (some solvents as carbon disulfide and ethylene glycol ethers, some pesticides as dibromochloropropane......, ethylendibromide and DDT/DDE, some heavy metals as inorganic lead and mercury) and work processes such as metal welding. Improved working conditions in affluent countries have dramatically decreased known hazardous workplace exposures, but millions of workers in less affluent countries are at risk from...... as phthalates, bisphenol A and boron that are present in a large number of industrial and consumer products entails a risk remains to be established. The same applies to psychosocial stressors and use of mobile phones. Finally, there are data indicating a particular vulnerability of the fetal testis...

  11. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: The Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss cur-rent and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and, environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from are think in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications

  12. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: the Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss current and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from a rethink in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  13. Glacial hazards: communicating the science and managing the risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    these scientific applications. Communicating the science to students and trying to excite them to the fun of applying these scientific disciplines in the field are important as part of science outreach. It is also important to communicate the science to those in government (local and national) within those countries affected by such hazards and to international funding agencies. There are two issues here: (a) using the media to a positive effect without alarming vulnerable and sensitive communities, and (b) providing the appropriate authorities with the necessary technical information about the hazards, their potential effects if catastrophe strikes, and how to manage the risk in an effective and timely fashion. For (a) where this is not handled correctly, the media are still ever too keen to headline potential catastrophes and unwittingly cause alarm among local communities. The so-called Palcacocha fiasco in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in April 2003 and the Imja Tsho media flurry of May 2008 in Nepal are but two recent examples. For (b) there needs to be a programme of interaction through workshops between the scientific community and key stakeholders in affected countries. Where these have been undertaken, such as in Bhutan, Nepal and Peru, the outcomes have been extremely productive and beneficial. However, much remains to be done in ensuring that authorities and funding agencies, for example, are aware of existing international guidelines on the assessment of glacial hazards that use objective methodologies, such as those funded by the British Government and published in 2003 (see www.geologyuk.com/mountain_ hazards_group/dfid.htm from which the guidelines can be downloaded in PDF format). Similar workshops, for example, are also being developed separately in Austria by the Glacier and Permafrost Hazard (GAPHAZ) Working Group and in Bhutan by the UNDP.

  14. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  15. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  16. The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Faez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.

  17. Probabilistic aspects of risk analyses for hazardous facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morici, A.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

    1989-01-01

    The work described in the paper discusses the aspects of the risk analysis concerned with the use of the probabilistic methodology, in order to see how this approach may affect the risk management of industrial hazardous facilities. To this purpose reference is done to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants. The paper points out that even though the public aversion towards nuclear risks is still far from being removed, the probabilistic approach may provide a sound support to the decision making and authorization process for any industrial activity implying risk for the environment and the public health. It is opinion of the authors that the probabilistic techniques have been developed to a great level of sophistication in the nuclear industry and provided much more experience in this field than in others. For some particular areas of the nuclear applications, such as the plant reliability and the plant response to the accidents, these techniques have reached a sufficient level of maturity and so some results have been usefully taken as a measure of the safety level of the plant itself. The use of some limited safety goals is regarded as a relevant item of the nuclear licensing process. The paper claims that it is time now that these methods would be applied with equal success to other hazardous facilities, and makes some comparative consideration on the differences of these plants with nuclear power plants in order to understand the effect of these differences on the PRA results and on the use one intends to make with them. (author)

  18. [Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

  19. Europe at risk (Following EU-Funded Research on Hazard and Risks)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delmonaco, G.; Atun, F.; Ceudech, A.; Deeming, H.; Roo, A.P.J. de; Lumbroso, D.; Galderisi, A.; Kallache, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Kundak, S.; Molinari, D.; Tweed, F.; Wade, S.; Walker, G.; Dandoulaki, M.; Barredo, J.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter regarding present risk conditions, has been structured using significant “images” of Europe, addressing the hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors recognised as crucial components of any risk assessment. To draw such a picture, results of past research at the European level were

  20. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  1. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  2. Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

  3. Hazard and risk of herbicides for marine microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjollema, Sascha B; Martínezgarcía, Gema; van der Geest, Harm G; Kraak, Michiel H S; Booij, Petra; Vethaak, A Dick; Admiraal, Wim

    2014-04-01

    Due to their specific effect on photosynthesis, herbicides pose a potential threat to coastal and estuarine microalgae. However, comprehensive understanding of the hazard and risk of these contaminants is currently lacking. Therefore the aim of the present study was to investigate the toxic effects of four ubiquitous herbicides (atrazine, diuron, Irgarol(®)1051 and isoproturon) and herbicide mixtures on marine microalgae. Using a Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) fluorometry based bioassay we demonstrated a clear species and herbicide specific toxicity and showed that the current environmental legislation does not protect algae sufficiently against diuron and isoproturon. Although a low actual risk of herbicides in the field was demonstrated, monitoring data revealed that concentrations occasionally reach potential effect levels. Hence it cannot be excluded that herbicides contribute to observed changes in phytoplankton species composition in coastal waters, but this is likely to occur only occasionally. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Identification of cardiometabolic risk: visceral adiposity index versus triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M

    2014-02-01

    The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinji Takarada

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

  6. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  7. Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

  8. Snakes as hazards: modelling risk by chasing chimpanzees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrew, William C

    2015-04-01

    Snakes are presumed to be hazards to primates, including humans, by the snake detection hypothesis (Isbell in J Hum Evol 51:1-35, 2006; Isbell, The fruit, the tree, and the serpent. Why we see so well, 2009). Quantitative, systematic data to test this idea are lacking for the behavioural ecology of living great apes and human foragers. An alternative proxy is snakes encountered by primatologists seeking, tracking, and observing wild chimpanzees. We present 4 years of such data from Mt. Assirik, Senegal. We encountered 14 species of snakes a total of 142 times. Almost two-thirds of encounters were with venomous snakes. Encounters occurred most often in forest and least often in grassland, and more often in the dry season. The hypothesis seems to be supported, if frequency of encounter reflects selective risk of morbidity or mortality.

  9. Ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of endocrine active substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Annegaaike; Roberts, Mike; Matthiessen, Peter

    2017-03-01

    This collection of papers provides state-of-the-art science on a complex topic that has been challenging for scientists and regulators for a long time. The papers emanated from the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Pellston Workshop ® Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA). Forty-eight international experts met in early February 2016 to discuss whether the environmental risks posed by endocrine-disrupting substances (EDS) can be reliably assessed. The primary conclusion of the workshop was that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk assessment of EDS is scientifically sound and reliable. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:264-266. © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

  10. Exploring the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception via real-time hazard identification, hazard classification, and rating tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowsky, Avinoam; Oron-Gilad, Tal

    2013-10-01

    This study investigated the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception skills. These topics have previously been investigated separately, yet a novel approach is suggested where hazard awareness and risk perception are examined concurrently. Young, newly qualified drivers, experienced drivers, and a group of commercial drivers, namely, taxi drivers performed three consecutive tasks: (1) observed 10 short movies of real-world driving situations and were asked to press a button each time they identified a hazardous situation; (2) observed one of three possible sub-sets of 8 movies (out of the 10 they have seen earlier) for the second time, and were asked to categorize them into an arbitrary number of clusters according to the similarity in their hazardous situation; and (3) observed the same sub-set for a third time and following each movie were asked to rate its level of hazardousness. The first task is considered a real-time identification task while the other two are performed using hindsight. During it participants' eye movements were recorded. Results showed that taxi drivers were more sensitive to hidden hazards than the other driver groups and that young-novices were the least sensitive. Young-novice drivers also relied heavily on materialized hazards in their categorization structure. In addition, it emerged that risk perception was derived from two major components: the likelihood of a crash and the severity of its outcome. Yet, the outcome was rarely considered under time pressure (i.e., in real-time hazard identification tasks). Using hindsight, when drivers were provided with the opportunity to rate the movies' hazardousness more freely (rating task) they considered both components. Otherwise, in the categorization task, they usually chose the severity of the crash outcome as their dominant criterion. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  12. Risk assessment on hazards for decommissioning safety of a nuclear facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Lim, Hyeon-Kyo

    2010-01-01

    A decommissioning plan should be followed by a qualitative and quantitative safety assessment of it. The safety assessment of a decommissioning plan is applied to identify the potential (radiological and non-radiological) hazards and risks. Radiological and non-radiological hazards arise during decommissioning activities. The non-radiological or industrial hazards to which workers are subjected during a decommissioning and dismantling process may be greater than those experienced during an operational lifetime of a facility. Workers need to be protected by eliminating or reducing the radiological and non-radiological hazards that may arise during routine decommissioning activities and as well as during accidents. The risk assessment method was developed by using risk matrix and fuzzy inference logic, on the basis of the radiological and non-radiological hazards for a decommissioning safety of a nuclear facility. Fuzzy inference of radiological and non-radiological hazards performs a mapping from radiological and non-radiological hazards to risk matrix. Defuzzification of radiological and non-radiological hazards is the conversion of risk matrix and priorities to the maximum criterion method and the mean criterion method. In the end, a composite risk assessment methodology, to rank the risk level on radiological and non-radiological hazards of the decommissioning tasks and to prioritize on the risk level of the decommissioning tasks, by simultaneously combining radiological and non-radiological hazards, was developed.

  13. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

    2014-01-01

    Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

  14. Dietary Sodium to Potassium Ratio and Risk of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban Population: The Northern Manhattan Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

    2017-11-01

    There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  16. Risk Assessment of Physical Health Hazards in Al-Azhar University Hospital in New Damietta, Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed El-Hady Imam*, Raed Mohammed Alazab**,

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Personnel working in hospitals are exposed to many occupational hazards that may threaten their health and safety. Physical hazards that are encountered in hospital working environment include temperature, illumination, noise, electrical injuries, and radiation. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify physical health hazards in all departments of Al-Azhar University Hospital in new Damietta, to measure risk level of these hazards, and to recognize safety me...

  17. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  18. Development of a prototype GIS for risk-hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devonport, C.

    1992-01-01

    A collaborative research agreement between the Supervising Scientist for the Alligator Rivers Region (OSS) and the Northern Territory University (NTU) aims to develop and assess a computer-based Geographic Information System (GIS) to integrate terrain and geological data for risk-hazard analysis and modelling. This paper outlines initial design and development of the prototype GIS including the input of trial data of various types. It is recognised that the GIS must be flexible enough to accommodate change and provide a base for a variety of research needs. Such functionality is likely to be provided best by an initially small, generic prototype GIS to which functions and data are added as required. Properties of the prototype identified as critical to its usefulness include integration of different types of data into the system, understanding and accommodating inconsistencies between data sets and the recognition and recording of error. Various types of data (elevation data, maps and images) available at the outset of the project are outlined together with a brief discussion on their source, integration into the database, derivative products and the potential usefulness of, and problems associated with, the different data formats. The analytical possibilities offered by the trial data will be explored next and the results of the first development cycle presented by the end of 1992. Subsequently, additional data will be incorporated into the database, analytical techniques will be used to build models, and user-driven development will enable the GIS to begin to support a decision research process. 20 refs

  19. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

  20. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  1. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

  2. Can hazard risk be communicated through a virtual experience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, J T

    1997-09-01

    Cyberspace, defined by William Gibson as a consensual hallucination, now refers to all computer-generated interactive environments. Virtual reality, one of a class of interactive cyberspaces, allows us to create and interact directly with objects not available in the everyday world. Despite successes in the entertainment and aviation industries, this technology has been called a 'solution in search of a problem'. The purpose of this commentary is to suggest such a problem: the inability to acquire experience with a hazard to motivate mitigation. Direct experience with a hazard has been demonstrated as a powerful incentive to adopt mitigation measures. While we lack the ability to summon hazard events at will in order to gain access to that experience, a virtual environment can provide an arena where potential victims are exposed to a hazard's effects. Immersion as an active participant within the hazard event through virtual reality may stimulate users to undertake mitigation steps that might otherwise remain undone. This paper details the possible direction in which virtual reality may be applied to hazards mitigation through a discussion of the technology, the role of hazard experience, the creation of a hazard stimulation and the issues constraining implementation.

  3. Exposure to hazardous air pollutants and the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malek, Angela M.; Barchowsky, Aaron; Bowser, Robert; Heiman-Patterson, Terry; Lacomis, David; Rana, Sandeep; Ada Youk; Talbott, Evelyn O.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a serious and rapidly fatal neurodegenerative disorder with an annual incidence of 1–2.6/100,000 persons. Few known risk factors exist although gene–environment interaction is suspected. We investigated the relationship between suspected neurotoxicant hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) exposure and ALS. Methods: A case–control study involving sporadic ALS cases (n = 51) and matched controls (n = 51) was conducted from 2008 to 2011. Geocoded residential addresses were linked to U.S. EPA NATA data (1999, 2002, and 2005) by census tract. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Results: Residential exposure to aromatic solvents significantly elevated the risk of ALS among cases compared to controls in 2002 (OR = 5.03, 95% CI: 1.29, 19.53) and 1999 (OR = 4.27, 95% CI: 1.09, 16.79) following adjustment for education, smoking, and other exposure groups. Metals, pesticides, and other HAPs were not associated with ALS. Conclusions: A potential relationship is suggested between residential ambient air aromatic solvent exposure and risk of ALS in this study. - Highlights: • The effects of ambient air pollutants and risk of ALS was assessed. • EPA NATA data linked to geocoded addresses for 1999, 2002, and 2005. • Residential exposure to aromatic solvents was associated with an increased risk of ALS. - Residential exposure to aromatic solvents was associated with an increased risk of ALS

  4. RiskLab - a joint Teaching Lab on Hazard and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mi.; Baruffini, Mo.; Thuering, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the future natural disasters are expected to increase due to climatic changes that strongly affect environmental, social and economical systems. For this reason and because of the limited resources, governments require analytical risk analysis for a better mitigation planning. Risk analysis is a process to determine the nature and extent of risk by estimating potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that could pose a potential threat or harm to people, property, livelihoods and environment. This process has become a generally accepted approach for the assessment of cost-benefit scenarios; originating from technical risks it is being applied to natural hazards for several years now in Switzerland. Starting from these premises "Risk Lab", a joint collaboration between the Institute of Earth Sciences of the University of Applied Sciences of Southern Switzerland and the Institute for Economic Research of the University of Lugano, has been started in 2006, aiming to become a competence centre about Risk Analysis and Evaluation. The main issue studied by the lab concerns the topic "What security at what price?" and the activities follow the philosophy of the integral risk management as proposed by PLANAT, that defines the process as a cycle that contains different and interrelated phases. The final aim is to change the population and technician idea about risk from "defending against danger" to "being aware of risks" through a proper academic course specially addressed to young people. In fact the most important activity of the laboratory consists in a degree course, offered both to Engineering and Architecture students of the University of Applied Sciences of Southern Switzerland and Economy Students of the University of Lugano. The course is structured in two main parts: an introductive, theoretical part, composed by class lessons, where the main aspects of natural hazards, risk perception and evaluation and risk management are presented

  5. Communicating landslide risk by combining hazard and open infrastructure data in interactive visualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tost, Jordi; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo; Heidmann, Frank

    2017-04-01

    The DIGENTI project ("DIGitaler ENtscheiderTIsch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und Volunteered Geographic Information") has the goal of quantifying and communicating the threat of natural hazards in the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia. The end-goal of the project is to provide an interactive guide for policy and decision makers, and for disaster relief coordination. Over the last years, abundant research has been done in order to analyze risk and to provide relevant information that improves effectiveness in disaster management. The communication of natural hazards risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of hazard maps. In the context of landslides, hazard maps are used to depict potential danger from landslides and visualize the possibility of future landsliding throughout a given area. Such hazard maps provide a static snapshot of the local estimated threat in a region. However, in mountainous regions, a sufficiently large landslide in remote mountainous areas may represent a potential threat to settlements located downstream of a landslide event. The research presented here proposes an approach to visualize and interactively explore landslide risk by combining static hazard maps, hydrologic networks, and OpenStreetMap data. We estimated the potential for hillslope instabilities scenarios in the region of interest by using the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate a suite Factor of Safety (FOS) maps. The FOS estimates the ratio of total resisting and driving forces to hillslope mass movements. By combining the World DEM with other environmental data (e.g., the Harmonized World Soil Database), we were able to create a suite of high-resolution landslide potential maps for the region of interest. The suite of FOS maps are calculated based on user-selectable parameters (e.g, total mass sliding thickness) that are not well constrained by field observations. We additionally use the TanDEM-X World DEM to

  6. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  7. Taxonomic analysis of perceived risk: modeling individual and group perceptions within homogeneous hazard domains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraus, N.N.; Slovic, P.

    1988-01-01

    Previous studies of risk perception have typically focused on the mean judgments of a group of people regarding the riskiness (or safety) of a diverse set of hazardous activities, substances, and technologies. This paper reports the results of two studies that take a different path. Study 1 investigated whether models within a single technological domain were similar to previous models based on group means and diverse hazards. Study 2 created a group taxonomy of perceived risk for only one technological domain, railroads, and examined whether the structure of that taxonomy corresponded with taxonomies derived from prior studies of diverse hazards. Results from Study 1 indicated that the importance of various risk characteristics in determining perceived risk differed across individuals and across hazards, but not so much as to invalidate the results of earlier studies based on group means and diverse hazards. In Study 2, the detailed analysis of railroad hazards produced a structure that had both important similarities to, and dissimilarities from, the structure obtained in prior research with diverse hazard domains. The data also indicated that railroad hazards are really quite diverse, with some approaching nuclear reactors in their perceived seriousness. These results suggest that information about the diversity of perceptions within a single domain of hazards could provide valuable input to risk-management decisions

  8. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

  9. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  10. Defense against terroristic hazards and risk by building planning law; Abwehr terroristischer Gefahren und Risiken durch Bauplanungsrecht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hopkins, Richard

    2012-07-01

    The book on defense against terroristic hazards and risk by building planning law includes the following issues: Introduction: civil engineering and safety. Risk, hazards and urban planning: historical and actual examples for the constructional danger prevention, terroristic threat and urban planning. Risk, hazards and terrorism: sociology and risk, law and risk, terrorism - risk or hazard? Answer to uncertainty - risk prevention, catastrophe law as link. Risk, hazard, terrorism and the public building and regional planning law: regional planning law as point of origin, building law and terrorism, possibility of control by the legal building regulations.

  11. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falakh, Fajrul; Setiani, Onny

    2018-02-01

    Water Treatment Plant (WTP) is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

  12. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falakh Fajrul

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Water Treatment Plant (WTP is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

  13. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  14. Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

    2017-11-01

    This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception

  15. Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

    2013-04-01

    In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

  16. High-risk facilities. Emergency management in nuclear, chemical and hazardous waste facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloepfer, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The book on emergency management in high-risk facilities covers the following topics: Change in the nuclear policy, risk management of high-risk facilities as a constitutional problem - emergency management in nuclear facilities, operational mechanisms of risk control in nuclear facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for nuclear facilities, operational mechanism of the risk control in chemical plants, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for chemical facilities, operational mechanisms of the risk control in hazardous waste facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for hazardous waste facilities, civil law consequences in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, criminal prosecution in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, safety margins as site risk for emission protection facilities, national emergency management - strategic emergency management structures, warning and self-protection of the public in case of CBRN hazards including aspects of the psych-social emergency management.

  17. Effect of systematic ergonomic hazard identification and control implementation on musculoskeletal disorder and injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Taiwo, Oyebode A; Galusha, Deron; Barbour, Russell; Slade, Martin D; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Cullen, Mark R

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to examine the effect of an ergonomic hazard control (HC) initiative, undertaken as part of a company ergonomics standard, on worker injury risk. Using the company's ergonomic hazards database to identify jobs with and without ergonomic HC implementation and linking to individual job and injury histories, injury risk among person-jobs with HC implementation (the HC group) was compared to those without HC (NoHC group) using random coefficient models. Further analysis of the HC group was conducted to determine the effect of additional ergonomic hazards controlled on injury risk. Among 123 jobs at 17 plant locations, 347 ergonomic hazards were quantitatively identified during the study period. HC were implemented for 204 quantified ergonomic hazards in 84 jobs, impacting 10 385 persons (12 967 person-jobs). No HC were implemented for quantified ergonomic hazards in the remaining 39 jobs affecting 4155 persons (5046 person-jobs). Adjusting for age, sex, plant origin, and year to control for any temporal trend in injury risk, the relative risk (RR) for musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) was 0.85 and the RR for any injury or MSD was 0.92 in the HC compared to NoHC group. Among the HC group, each ergonomic hazard controlled was associated with risk reduction for MSD and acute injury outcomes (RR 0.93). Systematic ergonomic HC through participatory ergonomics, as part of a mandatory company ergonomics standard, is associated with MSD and injury risk reduction among workers in jobs with HC implemented.

  18. The distinction between risk and hazard: understanding and use in stakeholder communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Benighaus, Christina; Benighaus, Ludger; Renn, Ortwin; Gold, Stefan; Röder, Bettina; Böl, Gaby-Fleur

    2014-07-01

    A major issue in all risk communication efforts is the distinction between the terms "risk" and "hazard." The potential to harm a target such as human health or the environment is normally defined as a hazard, whereas risk also encompasses the probability of exposure and the extent of damage. What can be observed again and again in risk communication processes are misunderstandings and communication gaps related to these crucial terms. We asked a sample of 53 experts from public authorities, business and industry, and environmental and consumer organizations in Germany to outline their understanding and use of these terms using both the methods of expert interviews and focus groups. The empirical study made clear that the terms risk and hazard are perceived and used very differently in risk communication depending on the perspective of the stakeholders. Several factors can be identified, such as responsibility for hazard avoidance, economic interest, or a watchdog role. Thus, communication gaps can be reduced to a four-fold problem matrix comprising a semantic, conceptual, strategic, and control problem. The empirical study made clear that risks and hazards are perceived very differently depending on the stakeholders' perspective. Their own worldviews played a major role in their specific use of the two terms hazards and risks in communication. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yafei; Liu, Mao

    2012-03-01

    With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  2. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  3. Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C; Cisternas, Pamela C; Repetto, Paula B

    2017-01-01

    Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and

  4. Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C.; Cisternas, Pamela C.; Repetto, Paula B.

    2017-01-01

    Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and

  5. Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

    2012-12-01

    Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

  6. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

  8. Equilibrium in benefits and hazard risk; Keseimbangan manfaat dan risiko kemudaratan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1988-12-31

    The chapter briefly discussed the following subjects: benefits of nuclear activities, the concept of operation optimization, concept of risks, hazards index, comparison in production costs of nuclear power generation and others sources of power generation.

  9. Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwag, Shinyoung

    Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

  10. Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Renaud, Fabrice G; Haas, Susanne; Sebesvari, Zita

    2018-08-01

    Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

    2015-01-01

    action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

  12. Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio

    OpenAIRE

    Clare, A.; Thomas, S.; Smith, P. N.; Seaton, J.

    2017-01-01

    The risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time, or sequence risk, is a poorly understood, but crucial aspect of the risk faced by investors, in particular those in the decumulation phase of their savings journey, typically over the period of retirement financed by a defined contributions pension scheme. Using US equity return data from 1872-2014 we show how this risk can be significantly reduced by applying trend-following investment strategies. We also demonstrate that kn...

  13. Risk aversion vs. the Omega ratio : Consistency results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balder, Sven; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    This paper clarifies when the Omega ratio and related performance measures are consistent with second order stochastic dominance and when they are not. To avoid consistency problems, the threshold parameter in the ratio should be chosen as the expected return of some benchmark – as is commonly done

  14. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    hazards, rainfall and sea surge, are both important. The core in the methodology is the application of copula functions as an extension of one-dimensional risk analysis and projections of future climatic changes. The results for Greater Copenhagen indicate that the dependence between the hazards is weak......In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  15. An Update on the Hazards and Risks of Forensic Anthropology, Part II: Field and Laboratory Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lindsey G; Dabbs, Gretchen R; Spencer, Jessica R

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on potential hazards and risks to forensic anthropologists while working in the field and laboratory in North America. Much has changed since Galloway and Snodgrass published their seminal article addressing these issues. The increased number of forensic practitioners combined with new information about potential hazards calls for an updated review of these pathogens and chemicals. Discussion of pathogen hazards (Brucella, Borrelia burgdorferi, Yersinia pestis, Clostridium tetani and West Nile virus) includes important history, exposure routes, environmental survivability, early symptoms, treatments with corresponding morbidity and mortality rates, and decontamination measures. Additionally, data pertaining to the use of formaldehyde in the laboratory environment have resulted in updated safety regulations, and these are highlighted. These data should inform field and laboratory protocols. The hazards of working directly with human remains are discussed in a companion article, "An Update on the Hazards and Risks of Forensic Anthropology, Part I: Human Remains." © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Potentials and limitations of hazard indices for the determination of risk potentials of disposed toxic wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, Gerald

    1989-01-01

    Hazard indices are often used for the determination of risk potentials arising from the geological disposal of toxic wastes. They are based on simplified models for the calculation of potential health effects caused by the wastes. The attractiveness of hazard indices lies in their simplicity which nevertheless results in reliable data on necessary isolation times and the most toxic nuclides of a waste. They also make possible comparisons of the potential risks of different wastes. After a discussion of the processes that control the behavior of toxic wastes in the environment after a failure of the geological barriers, a new hazard index is presented. Originally developed for nuclear wastes, it is the first which involves the joint consideration of the composition of a waste, the probability for transport of waste nuclides to man, their toxicity, and the time-dependent changes of the risk potentials which are caused by radioactive buildup and decay processes after the waste has entered the biosphere. The new hazard index makes possible the calculation of risk potentials at a given time of release and time period of concern thereafter. Sample calculations for different nuclear wastes show the importance of the model improvements on resulting time-dependent risk potentials. Applicability of the new hazard index to non-nuclear wastes is described. Potentials and limitations of comparative risk assessments using hazard indices are discussed. (author)

  17. Impact of hazardous waste risks and liabilities on the contracting process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gleason, G.L.

    1991-01-01

    Hazardous waste risks include the following: (1) An emerging environmental cleanup industry that differs significantly from traditional engineering; (2) The inability to predict and control the subsurface environment; (3) The implementation of new and often untested technologies; (4) The statutory imposition of strict, joint and several, as well as retroactive, liability; (5) The lack of insurance and other risk-transfer mechanisms to protect against losses; (6) Costly and time consuming litigation to determine liability; and (7) Others. The liabilities associated with the risks inherent in hazardous waste cleanup directly impact hazardous waste contracting. Contract negotiations become onerous during discussions of liability, indemnification, and issues surrounding scope of work and other clauses. Other impacts include (1) Defensive engineering; (2) Lack of incentive to implement innovative technologies; (3) Increased costs to cover risks. Required client indemnification is a necessary and responsible risks management practice, regardless of whether the client is a federal or private client. Federal government indemnification authorities, as well as private contract indemnification mechanisms, will be explained and analyzed. Conflict of interest concerns are also of critical importance in the hazardous waste market, particularly due to concerns over the complexity of the litigation surrounding hazardous waste sites and the need to ensure unbiased results. Other examples of hazardous waste risk management impacts on contracting in the following market sectors will also be provided: (1) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; (2) Department of Defense; (3) Department of Energy; and (4) Private sector contracts

  18. A risk-informed framework for establishing a beyond design basis safety basis for external hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amico, P. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Baltimore, MD (United States); Anoba, R. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Raleigh, NC (United States); Najafi, B. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Los Gatos, CA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The events at Fukushima Daiichi taught us that meeting a deterministic design basis requirement for external hazards does not assure that the risk is low. As observed at the plant, the two primary reasons for this are failure cliffs above the design basis event and that combined hazard effects are not considered in design. Because the possible combinations of design basis exceedences and external hazard combinations are very large and complex, an approach focusing only on the most important ones is needed. For this reason, a risk informed approach is the most effective approach, which is discussed in this paper. (author)

  19. Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

  20. Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

    2011-01-01

    We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

  1. [Application of occupational hazard risk index model in occupational health risk assessment in a decorative coating manufacturing enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, P L; Zhao, C X; Dong, Q Y; Hao, S B; Xu, P; Zhang, J; Li, J G

    2018-01-20

    Objective: To evaluate the occupational health risk of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises and to explore the applicability of occupational hazard risk index model in the health risk assessment, so as to provide basis for the health management of enterprises. Methods: A decorative coating manufacturing enterprise in Hebei Province was chosen as research object, following the types of occupational hazards and contact patterns, the occupational hazard risk index model was used to evaluate occupational health risk factors of occupational hazards in the key positions of the decorative coating manufacturing enterprise, and measured with workplace test results and occupational health examination. Results: The positions of oily painters, water-borne painters, filling workers and packers who contacted noise were moderate harm. And positions of color workers who contacted chromic acid salts, oily painters who contacted butyl acetate were mild harm. Other positions were harmless. The abnormal rate of contacting noise in physical examination results was 6.25%, and the abnormality was not checked by other risk factors. Conclusion: The occupational hazard risk index model can be used in the occupational health risk assessment of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises, and noise was the key harzard among occupational harzards in this enterprise.

  2. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  3. Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2018-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

  4. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  5. Relative Hazard Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DL Strenge; MK White; RD Stenner; WB Andrews

    1999-01-01

    The methodology presented in this document was developed to provide a means of calculating the RH ratios to use in developing useful graphic illustrations. The RH equation, as presented in this methodology, is primarily a collection of key factors relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected risk management activities. The RH equation has the potential for much broader application than generating risk profiles. For example, it can be used to compare one risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to a fixed baseline as was done for the risk profiles. If the appropriate source term data are available, it could be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated hazards. These estimated values of hazard could then be examined to help understand which risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions at a site. Graphics could be generated from these absolute hazard values to compare high-hazard conditions. If the RH equation is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify the estimated absolute hazard values (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard estimation)

  6. A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

    2005-11-25

    A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

  7. Communicating actionable risk for terrorism and other hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Michele M; Mileti, Dennis S; Kano, Megumi; Kelley, Melissa M; Regan, Rotrease; Bourque, Linda B

    2012-04-01

    We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective "communicating actionable risk," and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Hazard Quotients, Hazard Indexes, and Cancer Risks of Toxic Metals in PM10 during Firework Displays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siwatt Pongpiachan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Bonfire night is a worldwide phenomenon given to numerous annual celebrations characterised by bonfires and fireworks. Since Thailand has no national ambient air quality standards for metal particulates, it is important to investigate the impacts of particulate injections on elevations of air pollutants and the ecological health impacts resulting from firework displays. In this investigation, Pb and Ba were considered potential firework tracers because their concentrations were significantly higher during the episode, and lower than/comparable with minimum detection limits during other periods, indicating that their elevated concentrations were principally due to pyrotechnic displays. Pb/Ca, Pb/Al, Pb/Mg, and Pb/Cu can be used to pin-point emissions from firework displays. Air mass backward trajectories (72 h from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT model indicated that areas east and north-east of the study site were the main sources of the airborne particles. Although the combined risk associated with levels of Pb, Cr, Co., Ni, Zn, As, Cd, V, and Mn was far below the standards mentioned in international guidelines, the lifetime cancer risks associated with As and Cr levels exceeded US-EPA guidelines, and may expose inhabitants of surrounding areas of Bangkok to an elevated cancer risk.

  9. Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or lightning are a major threat to industry. In particular, chemical plants, storage facilities, pipelines, and offshore oil and gas facilities are vulnerable to natural events which can cause hazardous materials releases and thereby endanger workers, the population and the environment. These technological accidents are commonly referred to as Natech accidents. Recent events have increased concerns about safety in the offshore oil and gas sector, and the need for improving knowledge on the matter has become evident. With those premises, we analyzed accidents, near misses and accident precursors at offshore facilities in Europe caused by natural events using both a statistical and a qualitative approach. For this purpose, we screened the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD) to identify all incidents that featured natural events as causes or aggravating factors. A dataset of 1,085 global Natech events was built for the statistical analysis. Among those, a subset composed of 303 European records was selected. The results of the analysis showed that offshore Natech events in Europe are frequent; they resulted, however, in low consequences. The main threat to offshore facilities resulted from bad weather, such as strong winds and heavy seas. Storms can put intense loads on the structural parts of offshore installations, eventually exceeding design resistance specifications. Several incidents triggered by lightning strikes and earthquakes were also recorded. Substantial differences in terms of vulnerability, damage modality and consequences emerged between fixed and floating offshore structures. The main damage mode for floating structures was the failure of station keeping systems due to the rupture of mooring or anchors, mainly caused by adverse meteorological conditions. Most of the incidents at fixed offshore structures in Europe involved falling loads for both metal jacket and concrete base platforms due to storms. In

  10. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  11. A generic multi-hazard and multi-risk framework and its application illustrated in a virtual city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignan, Arnaud; Euchner, Fabian; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    value. Vulnerability curves are defined in terms of mean damage ratio as a function of hazard intensity. All data are based on simple equations found in the literature and on other simplifications. We show the impact of earthquake-earthquake interaction and hurricane-storm surge coupling, as well as of time-dependent vulnerability and exposure, on aggregated loss curves. One main result is the emergence of low probability-high consequences (extreme) events when correlations are implemented. While the concept of virtual city can suggest the theoretical benefits of multi-risk assessment for decision support, identifying their real-world practicality will require the study of real test sites.

  12. Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

    2014-10-01

    Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

  13. Factors for assessment of human health risk associated with remedial action at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.E.; King, C.M.; Looney, B.B.; Holmes, W.G.; Gordon, D.E.

    1985-01-01

    A risk assessment strategy that is cost effective and minimized human health risks was developed for closure of hazardous waste sites at the Savannah River Plant. The strategy consists of (1) site characterization, (2) contaminant transport modeling, and (3) determination of relative merits of alternative remedial actions according to the degree of health protection they provide

  14. Hazardous drinking and HIV-risk-related behavior among male clients of female sex workers in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman-Meza, David; Pitpitan, Eileen V; Semple, Shirley J; Wagner, Karla D; Chavarin, Claudia V; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Patterson, Thomas L

    2014-01-01

    Male clients of female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk for HIV. Whereas the HIV risks of alcohol use are well understood, less is known about hazardous alcohol use among male clients of FSWs, particularly in Mexico. We sought to identify risk factors for hazardous alcohol use and test associations between hazardous alcohol use and HIV risk behavior among male clients in Tijuana. Male clients of FSWs in Tijuana (n = 400) completed a quantitative interview in 2008. The AUDIT was used to characterize hazardous alcohol use. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent associations of demographic and HIV risk variables with hazardous alcohol use (vs. non-hazardous). Forty percent of our sample met criteria for hazardous alcohol use. Variables independently associated with hazardous drinking were reporting any sexually transmitted infection (STI), having sex with a FSW while under the influence of alcohol, being younger than 36 years of age, living in Tijuana, and ever having been jailed. Hazardous drinkers were less likely ever to have been deported or to have shared injection drugs. Hazardous alcohol use is associated with HIV risk, including engaging in sex with FSWs while intoxicated and having an STI among male clients of FSWs in Tijuana. We systematically described patterns and correlates of hazardous alcohol use among male clients of FSWs in Tijuana, Mexico. The results suggest that HIV/STI risk reduction interventions must target hazardous alcohol users, and be tailored to address alcohol use. © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  15. The aesthetics of hazardous waste - Distinguishing visual impacts from publicly perceived risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.

    1986-01-01

    The need to address the aesthetic impacts of hazardous waste projects on the environment and the public stems from two sources: government regulations which specifically require assessment of aesthetic effects; and rapidly increasing public concern for perceived impacts and risks of existing or proposed hazardous waste facilities. How aesthetic issues are handled on hazardous waste projects can potentially have significant implications on the fate of those projects. These implications range from delays in the permitting process to denial of sites or costly legal judgments in damage suits. This paper discusses strategies for evaluating the aesthetic/perceptual aspects of hazardous waste. In particular, it focuses upon ways to distinguish visual concerns from other influences on public perceptions such as perceived health and safety risks

  16. Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

    2014-01-01

    Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

  17. Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kjellgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC, flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address – in research as well as in practice – since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

  18. Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellgren, S.

    2013-07-01

    In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address - in research as well as in practice - since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

  19. Risk analysis of radioactive waste repository based on the time dependent hazard rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.H.; Cho, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    For the probabilistic risk analysis of the radioactive high level waste repository, the simplified method based on the time dependent hazard rate is proposed. The obtained results are compared with those from the time independent hazard rate. The estimation of the failure probability of the waste repository through this method gives more conservative results, especially when the half-life of nuclide is larger and retardation factors of nuclide is smaller. (Auth.)

  20. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, G. M.; Luco, N.; Collins, B. D.; Harp, E.; Reichenbach, P.; Frankel, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    Rock falls are a considerable hazard in Yosemite Valley, California with more than 835 rock falls and other slope movements documented since 1857. Thus, rock falls pose potentially significant risk to the nearly four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Building on earlier hazard assessment work by the U.S. Geological Survey, we performed a quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley. This work was aided by several new data sets, including precise Geographic Information System (GIS) maps of rock-fall deposits, airborne and terrestrial LiDAR-based point cloud data and digital elevation models, and numerical ages of talus deposits. Using Global Position Systems (GPS), we mapped the positions of over 500 boulders on the valley floor and measured their distance relative to the mapped base of talus. Statistical analyses of these data yielded an initial hazard zone that is based on the 90th percentile distance of rock-fall boulders beyond the talus edge. This distance was subsequently scaled (either inward or outward from the 90th percentile line) based on rock-fall frequency information derived from a combination of cosmogenic beryllium-10 exposure dating of boulders beyond the edge of the talus, and computer model simulations of rock-fall runout. The scaled distances provide the basis for a new hazard zone on the floor of Yosemite Valley. Once this zone was delineated, we assembled visitor, employee, and resident use data for each structure within the hazard zone to quantitatively assess risk exposure. Our results identify areas within the new hazard zone that may warrant more detailed study, for example rock-fall susceptibility, which can be assessed through examination of high-resolution photographs, structural measurements on the cliffs, and empirical calculations derived from LiDAR point cloud data. This hazard and risk information is used to inform placement of existing and potential future infrastructure in Yosemite Valley.

  1. Assessment of hazards and risks for landscape protection planning in Sicily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Rosa, Daniele; Martinico, Francesco

    2013-09-01

    Landscape protection planning is a complex task that requires an integrated assessment and involves heterogeneous issues. These issues include not only the management of a considerable amount of data to describe landscape features but also the choice of appropriate tools to evaluate the hazards and risks. The landscape assessment phase can provide fundamental information for the definition of a Landscape Protection Plan, in which the selection of norms for protection or rehabilitation is strictly related to hazards, values and risks that are found. This paper describes a landscape assessment methodology conducted by using GIS, concerning landscape hazards, values and risk. Four hazard categories are introduced and assessed concerning urban sprawl and erosion: landscape transformations by new planned developments, intensification of urban sprawl patterns, loss of agriculture land and erosion. Landscape value is evaluated by using different thematic layers overlaid with GIS geoprocessing. The risk of loss of landscape value is evaluated, with reference to the potential occurrence of the previously assessed hazards. The case study is the Province of Enna (Sicily), where landscape protection is a relevant issue because of the importance of cultural and natural heritage. Results show that high value landscape features have a low risk of loss of landscape value. For this reason, landscape protection policies assume a relevant role in landscapes with low-medium values and they should be addressed to control the urban sprawl processes that are beginning in the area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Fundamentals of defining and evaluating technical risks and hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, G.

    1982-01-01

    This contribution is concerned with discussions of undefined judicial concepts in the area of Safety engineering from the point of view of science and technology. Concepts like risk assessments, including accident probibility predictions are discussed and condensed in the demand: ''Risk must be acceptably low.'' Acceptability of risk is and remains a question of judgement. This judgement must be based on the specific plant involved, and in the final analysis; should be made on the basis of value judgements of all concerned. Measures and criteria for the acceptability of risk have been developed over the years. They will be determined by safety-related of security maximum acceptable values as stated in the appropriate regulations, as well as through licensing, permits, etc. Experience shows that a continuous expansion, based on safety-related research that would include extensive accident analysis, is needed. Should the status of science and technology change, it could become necessary that the measures or criteria for risk assessment would have to change also. (orig./HSCH) [de

  3. Rock slope instabilities in Norway: First systematic hazard and risk classification of 22 unstable rock slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhme, Martina; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Oppikofer, Thierry; Penna, Ivanna

    2016-04-01

    Unstable rock slopes that can cause large failures of the rock-avalanche type have been mapped in Norway for almost two decades. Four sites have earlier been characterized as high-risk objects based on expertise of few researchers. This resulted in installing continuous monitoring systems and set-up of an early-warning system for those four sites. Other unstable rock slopes have not been ranked related to their hazard or risk. There are ca. 300 other sites known of which 70 sites were installed for periodic deformation measurements using multiple techniques (Global Navigation Satellite Systems, extensometers, measurement bolts, and others). In 2012 a systematic hazard and risk classification system for unstable rock slopes was established in Norway and the mapping approach adapted to that in 2013. Now, the first 22 sites were classified for hazard, consequences and risk using this classification system. The selection of the first group of sites to be classified was based on an assumed high hazard or risk and importance given to the sites by Norwegian media and the public. Nine of the classified 22 unstable rock slopes are large sites that deform inhomogeneously or are strongly broken up in individual blocks. This suggests that different failure scenarios are possible that need to be analyzed individually. A total of 35 failure scenarios for those nine unstable rock slopes were considered. The hazard analyses were based on 9 geological parameters defined in the classification system. The classification system will be presented based on the Gamanjunni unstable rock slope. This slope has a well developed back scarp that exposes 150 m preceding displacement. The lateral limits of the unstable slope are clearly visible in the morphology and InSAR displacement data. There have been no single structures observed that allow sliding kinematically. The lower extend of the displacing rock mass is clearly defined in InSAR data and by a zone of higher rock fall activity. Yearly

  4. Comparison of exact, efron and breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatekurohman, Mohamat; Nurmala, Nita; Anggraeni, Dian

    2018-04-01

    Lungs are the most important organ, in the case of respiratory system. Problems related to disorder of the lungs are various, i.e. pneumonia, emphysema, tuberculosis and lung cancer. Comparing all those problems, lung cancer is the most harmful. Considering about that, the aim of this research applies survival analysis and factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patient using comparison of exact, Efron and Breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model. The data applied are based on the medical records of lung cancer patients in Jember Paru-paru hospital on 2016, east java, Indonesia. The factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patients can be classified into several criteria, i.e. sex, age, hemoglobin, leukocytes, erythrocytes, sedimentation rate of blood, therapy status, general condition, body weight. The result shows that exact method of stratified cox regression model is better than other. On the other hand, the endurance of the patients is affected by their age and the general conditions.

  5. Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

  6. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuichiro Goda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

  8. Predictive value of serum apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I ratio in metabolic syndrome risk: a Chinese cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Yu-Ching; Kuan, Jen-Chun; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Yang, Tsan; Chou, Wan-Yun; Hsieh, Po-Chien; You, San-Lin; Hwang, Lee-Ching; Chen, Chien-Hua; Wei, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Chien-An

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio is a promising risk predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine the optimal cut-off value of this ratio in detecting subjects with MetS in a Chinese population. A prospective study was conducted using a representative sample of non-institutionized people in Taiwan. A total of 3,343 participants with mean age (±SD) of 39.86 (±15.61) years old were followed up from 2002 to 2007. The primary outcome was the incidence of MetS. The MetS was defined according to a unified criterion established by several major organizations. There were 462 cases of incident MetS during a mean follow-up period of 5.26 years. A significantly stepwise increase in the incidence of MetS across quartiles of the apoB/apoA-I ratio was noted in both sexes after adjustment for potential confounders (p for trend risk of MetS in both men [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 6.29, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 2.79-9.13] and women (adjusted HR = 3.82, 95 % CI = 1.06-6.63). Comparisons of receiver operating characteristics curves indicated that the predictive ability of apoB/apoA-I ratio to detect MetS was better than conventional lipid ratio measurements. Furthermore, the optimal cut-off value of apoB/apoA-I ratio for MetS diagnosis was 0.71 in men and 0.56 in women. These results suggest that an elevated apoB/apoA-I ratio might constitute a potentially crucial measure linked to the risk of developing MetS.

  9. Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

  10. Health Risk Analysis of Cryptosporidiosis and other Hazards in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The Cryptosporidium team will also collaborate with teams working on tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS to ensure that risks related to co-morbidity or differential diagnosis are adequately ... Analyse du risque que posent la cryptosporidiose et d'autres infections dans les petites exploitations laitières en milieu urbain (Kenya).

  11. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called produced water.'' Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  12. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called ``produced water.`` Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  13. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called ''produced water.'' Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium

  14. Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

    2007-08-01

    This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

  15. Establishing sitewide risk perspectives due to cumulative impacts from AB, EP, and NEPA hazard analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olinger, S.J.

    1998-06-01

    With the end of the Cold War in 1992, the mission for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) was changed from production of nuclear weapon components to special nuclear materials (SNM) and waste management, accelerated cleanup, reuse and closure of the Site. This change in mission presents new hazards and risk management challenges. With today's shrinking DOE budget, a balance needs to be achieved between controlling those hazards related to SNM and waste management and interim storage, and those hazards related to accelerated closure of the Site involving deactivation, decontamination, and decommissioning (DD and D) of surplus nuclear facilities. This paper discusses how risk assessments of normal operations and potential accidents have provided insights on the risks of current operations and planned closure activities

  16. Sea-dumped chemical weapons: environmental risk, occupational hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, M I; Sexton, K J; Vearrier, D

    2016-01-01

    Chemical weapons dumped into the ocean for disposal in the twentieth century pose a continuing environmental and human health risk. In this review we discuss locations, quantity, and types of sea-dumped chemical weapons, related environmental concerns, and human encounters with sea-dumped chemical weapons. We utilized the Ovid (http://ovidsp.tx.ovid.com) and PubMed (http://www.pubmed.org) search engines to perform MEDLINE searches for the terms 'sea-dumped chemical weapons', 'chemical warfare agents', and 'chemical munitions'. The searches returned 5863 articles. Irrelevant and non-English articles were excluded. A review of the references for these articles yielded additional relevant sources, with a total of 64 peer-reviewed articles cited in this paper. History and geography of chemical weapons dumping at sea: Hundreds of thousands of tons of chemical munitions were disposed off at sea following World War II. European, Russian, Japanese, and United States coasts are the areas most affected worldwide. Several areas in the Baltic and North Seas suffered concentrated large levels of dumping, and these appear to be the world's most studied chemical warfare agent marine dumping areas. Chemical warfare agents: Sulfur mustard, Lewisite, and the nerve agents appear to be the chemical warfare agents most frequently disposed off at sea. Multiple other type of agents including organoarsenicals, blood agents, choking agents, and lacrimators were dumped at sea, although in lesser volumes. Environmental concerns: Numerous geohydrologic variables contribute to the rate of release of chemical agents from their original casings, leading to difficult and inexact modeling of risk of release into seawater. Sulfur mustard and the organoarsenicals are the most environmentally persistent dumped chemical agents. Sulfur mustard in particular has a propensity to form a solid or semi-solid lump with a polymer coating of breakdown products, and can persist in this state on the ocean floor

  17. Male reproductive organs are at risk from environmental hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonde, Jens Peter

    2010-01-01

    Male reproductive disorders that are of interest from an environmental point of view include sexual dysfunction, infertility, cryptorchidism, hypospadias and testicular cancer. Several reports suggest declining sperm counts and increase of these reproductive disorders in some areas during some time...... are the best documented risk factors for impaired male reproductive function and include physical exposures (radiant heat, ionizing radiation, high frequency electromagnetic radiation), chemical exposures (some solvents as carbon disulfide and ethylene glycol ethers, some pesticides as dibromochloropropane...... reproductive toxicants. New data show that environmental low-level exposure to biopersistent pollutants in the diet may pose a risk to people in all parts of the world. For other toxicants the evidence is only suggestive and further evaluation is needed before conclusions can be drawn. Whether compounds...

  18. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

  19. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong Gon; Byun, Hun Soo

    2014-01-01

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks

  20. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jeong Gon [Hanwha Chemical Ulsan Site, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hun Soo [Chonnam National University, Yeosu (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks.

  1. Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two

  2. Effectuality of Cleaning Workers' Training and Cleaning Enterprises' Chemical Health Hazard Risk Profiling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleiman, Abdulqadir M; Svendsen, Kristin V H

    2015-12-01

    Goal-oriented communication of risk of hazards is necessary in order to reduce risk of workers' exposure to chemicals. Adequate training of workers and enterprise priority setting are essential elements. Cleaning enterprises have many challenges and the existing paradigms influence the risk levels of these enterprises. Information on organization and enterprises' prioritization in training programs was gathered from cleaning enterprises. A measure of enterprises' conceptual level of importance of chemical health hazards and a model for working out the risk index (RI) indicating enterprises' conceptual risk level was established and used to categorize the enterprises. In 72.3% of cases, training takes place concurrently with task performances and in 67.4% experienced workers conduct the trainings. There is disparity between employers' opinion on competence level of the workers and reality. Lower conceptual level of importance was observed for cleaning enterprises of different sizes compared with regional safety delegates and occupational hygienists. Risk index values show no difference in risk level between small and large enterprises. Training of cleaning workers lacks the prerequisite for suitability and effectiveness to counter risks of chemical health hazards. There is dereliction of duty by management in the sector resulting in a lack of competence among the cleaning workers. Instituting acceptable easily attainable safety competence level for cleaners will conduce to risk reduction, and enforcement of attainment of the competence level would be a positive step.

  3. Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ying; Li Jinhui; Chen Shusheng; Diao Weihua

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. - Highlights: ► No comprehensive environmental risk assessment method for hazardous waste management is proposed in China. ► An assessment indices system is established for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfill. ► All indicators are quantitative and applicable in China. - Capsule: This research identified critical indices and established a system for environmental risk assessment for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of HWLs in China.

  4. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  5. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

  6. Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2015-04-01

    Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be

  7. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determiningthe aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, Philip John; Nowak, W.

    2015-01-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any......-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired...

  8. External hazards in reliability and risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1977-01-01

    It is current practice in the design of nuclear power generating stations to protect against the effects of significant natural and man-made external hazards which can occur at the plant site in excess of those hazards normally considered for conventional facilities. This paper is meant to identify those postulated external hazards typically considered in nuclear facility design. The paper also attempts to fulfill the following four objectives: (1) Define the current state of the art in applying reliability and risk analysis to determine external hazard design requirements. (2) Provide a ready source of literature references applicable to probabilistic design for extreme loads. (3) Provide some quantitative probability assessment estimates of external hazards. (4) Develop exclusion criteria by which postulated external hazards can be eliminated as a design basis. Rigorous evaluation of the design requirements for nuclear power plant facilities based on principles of probability and risk analysis is just beginning. It is hoped these techniques will be used more extensively in the future to provide a more rational basis for developing design requirements. (orig.) [de

  9. Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poerbandono

    2017-07-01

    This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

  10. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  11. Tourism hazard potentials in Mount Merapi: how to deal with the risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.; Meilani, R.

    2018-05-01

    Mount Merapi as one of the most popular natural tourism destination in Indonesia, indicated as disaster prone area. Hazard management is required to ensure visitors safety. Hazard identification and mapping are prerequisite in developing proper hazard management recommendation. This study aimed to map hazard potentials’ geographical positions obtained with geographical positioning system and to identify the hazard management being implemented. Data collection was carried out in Mei – June 2017 through observation and interview. Hiking trail and Lava tour area was selected as the study site, since the sites are the main areas for tourism activities in Mount Merapi. The type of hazards found in the area included lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land slide, extreme weather, slope and loose rock. Early warning system had been developed in this area, however the mechanism to regulate tourism activities still had to be improved. Local tourism entrepreneurs should be involved in the network of early warning system stakeholders to ensure tourist safety, and their capacity should be improved in order to be able to perform the measures needed for handling accident and disaster occurrences. Interpretive media explaining hazard potentials may be used to improve visitors’ awareness and ability to cope with the risk.

  12. Reducing the risk of potential hazard in tourist activities of Mount Bromo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meilani, R.; Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.

    2018-05-01

    Mount Bromo has been crowned as one of the most beautiful mountains in the world, having a particular landscape uniqueness. Not only volcano, Bromo also has savanna, sea of sands, and culture of Tengger tribe. Its panoramic landscape has attracted a large number of tourists, both domestic and foreign, despites the threat of eruption. To ensure tourists safety and satisfaction, the potentials hazard, both from eruption and other features should be managed carefully. The study objective was to identify and map hazard potentials and identify the existing hazard management. It was carried out in Mei – June 2017. Lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land sliding, extreme weather, slope, transportation modes (jeep, motorcycle, and horse), human, and land fire were found as potential hazards in Mount Bromo. Five locations had been identified as hazard area in the tourism areas, i.e. savanna, sea of sand, Bromo caldera and Pananjakan I trail and viewing point. Early warning system should be developed as part of hazard management in the area. Capacity building of local stakeholders and visitors would be needed to reduce risk of the hazard.

  13. The Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risks of Austria: first results for fluvial and pluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Tader, Andreas; Glade, Thomas; Neuhold, Clemens; Stiefelmeyer, Heinz

    2015-04-01

    Incoherent societal adaptation to natural processes results in significant losses every year. A better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risks, and of particular hot spots in a given region or period, is essential for reducing adverse impacts. Commonly, different hazard and risk estimations are performed within individual approaches based on tailor-made concepts. This works well as long as specific cases are considered. The advantage of such a procedure is that each individual hazard and risk is addressed in the best possible manner. The drawback, however, consists in the fact that the results differ significantly in terms of quality and accuracy and therefore cannot be compared. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy and concept which uses similar data sources of equivalent quality in order to adequately analyze the different natural hazards and risks at broader scales. The present study is aiming to develop such a platform. The project Risk:ATlas focuses on the design of an atlas visualizing the most relevant natural hazards and, in particular, possible consequences for the entire territory of Austria. Available as a web-based tool and as a printed atlas, it is seen as a key tool to improve the basis for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk transfer. The atlas is founded on those data sets available for the entire territory of Austria at a consistent resolution and quality. A 1 m resolution DEM and the official cadastre and building register represent the core, further data sets are employed according to the requirements for each natural hazard and risk. In this contribution, the methodology and the preliminary results for fluvial and pluvial floods and their consequences to buildings for three selected test areas in different types of landscapes (rural, urban and mountainous) are presented. Flooding depths expected for annualities of 30, 100 and 300 are derived from existing data sets for fluvial floods and are computed

  14. An Update on the Hazards and Risks of Forensic Anthropology, Part I: Human Remains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lindsey G; Dabbs, Gretchen R; Spencer, Jessica R

    2016-01-01

    This work reviews the hazards and risks of practicing forensic anthropology in North America, with a focus on pathogens encountered through contact with unpreserved human remains. Since the publication of Galloway and Snodgrass' seminal paper concerning the hazards of forensic anthropology, research has provided new information about known pathogen hazards, and regulating authorities have updated recommendations for the recognition and treatment of several infections. Additionally, forensic anthropology has gained popularity, exposing an increased number of students and practitioners to these hazards. Current data suggest many occupational exposures to blood or body fluids go unreported, especially among students, highlighting the need for this discussion. For each pathogen and associated disease, this work addresses important history, reviews routes of exposure, provides an overview of symptoms and treatments, lists decontamination procedures, and presents data on postmortem viability. Personal protection and laboratory guidelines should be established and enforced in conjunction with the consideration of these data. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  15. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

  16. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  17. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

    2016-01-01

    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  18. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  19. Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

  20. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  1. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  2. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

    2015-09-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

  3. Risk analysis of environmental hazards at the High Flux Beam Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Ho, V.S.; Johnson, D.H.

    1994-01-01

    In the late 1980s, a Level 1 internal event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed for the High-Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR), a US Department of Energy research reactor located at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Prior to the completion of that study, a level 1 PRA for external events was initiated, including environmental hazards such as fire, internal flooding, etc. Although this paper provides a brief summary of the risks from environmental hazards, emphasis will be placed on the methodology employed in utilizing industrial event databases for event frequency determination for the HFBR complex. Since the equipment in the HFBR is different from that of, say, a commercial nuclear power plant, the current approach is to categorize the industrial events according to the hazard initiators instead of categorizing by initiator location. But first a general overview of the analysis

  4. Individual risk evaluation and interventions for mitigation in the transportation of hazardous goods: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rada Elena Cristina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The transport of hazardous substances is an economic activity essential for goods’ transference chain. However, the risk in transporting hazardous materials is related to the occur of accidents causing environmental damages and public health dangerous consequences. A quite recent Italian example is the Viareggio accident (2010, which involved a train with tank cars containing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG which caused more than thirty deaths. This paper describes the safety state in the Varese district (an area of northern Italy with a very high population density and industrial activities, with the aim at comparing the current situation (considering the risks due to the transportation of hazardous materials on the main motorways and main national roads with a potential scenario that introduces a few mitigating interventions, such as a partial conversion from road haulage to rail transport. This comparison can be accomplished by developing the existing intermodal platforms and implementing new ones in strategic areas.

  5. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

  6. Provenance of nuclear radioactivity radiation and hazardous health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakhuja, Geeta

    2016-01-01

    This assessment has an important consideration for nuclear energy upon the creation of radioactivity being generated and mobilized through various energy agencies. The term 'Radioactivity' or the rate of nuclear decay is measured in units called 'Becquerel' (Bq), where 1 Bq= 1 event (disintegration) per second. Another commonly used unit of radioactivity is the Curie (Ci), where 1 Ci = 3.70 x 10"1"0 Bq. Radiation is all around us. It is in our environment and has been since the earth was formed. As a result, life has evolved in the presence of significant levels of ionizing radiation. It comes from outer space (cosmic), ground (terrestrial) and even from within our own bodies. It is in the air we breathe, the food we eat, the water we drink, and the state of our wellbeing. However, the entire system is related to human and human-health issues. This paper examines the empirical evidence incorporated with human-made nuclear radioactivity from nuclear energy sources, especially while maintaining the viability of radioactive mechanisms, which may cause the uncontrolled highly dangerous harmful effects of radionuclides in human body and these radiations can even damage the DNA in the cells of people when exposed to it, because it is the DNA that passes on instructions for growth and development to the next generation. This, in turn, is the paradigm for the health risks of various sources of nuclear radioactivity. (author)

  7. Toxicant emissions from hazardous wastes in landfills - implications for disposal risk management decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assmuth, T.W.

    1991-01-01

    The environmental impacts and risks of hazardous wastes disposed in Finnish landfills were assessed in a 5-yr field study. By systematic analysis of the acquired information, the toxicological impacts and risks of landfills seem as a whole small when compared with those caused by other kinds of environmental toxicants. Locally more significant risks arise, and may be difficult to manage. Scientific information on risk factors and their development is as yet insufficient, and additional research and monitoring are needed. Since uncertainties will remain, the prevention and control of risks, e.g. by improved hazardous waste management and disposal, are advocated by safety principles, but are made difficult by many technical and societal factors. Control strategies and remedial actions should thus be based on more comprehensive, comparative risk assessments and improved decision methods. Ethical, political and methodological issues in the management of hazardous waste disposal are discussed, with special reference to the interaction of science with regulatory decision-making related to the risks of old chemical waste sites. (44 refs.) (au)

  8. Hazardous substances in electronics: the effects of European Union risk regulation on China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biedenkopf, K.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that European Union (EU) risk regulation of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) was both a trigger and formative factor in the development of similar Chinese regulation. The attractiveness and global interdependence of the EU market in EEE impelled a

  9. Using Dice Games to Teach Hazards, Risk, and Outcomes in HACCP Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzabal, Omar A.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the incorporation of a dice game (piggy) to teach food safety hazards and risk in an engaging way in HACCP classes. Each player accumulates points by rolling two dice, but loses points in a turn when rolling a 7, or all accumulated points when rolling two consecutive doubles. This game helps explain the difference between a…

  10. A Critical Examination of the Climate Engineering Moral Hazard and Risk Compensation Concern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.(Jesse)

    The widespread concern that research into and potential implementation of climate engineering would reduce mitigation and adaptation is critically examined. First, empirical evidence of such moral hazard or risk compensation in general is inconclusive, and the empirical evidence to date in the case

  11. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Furen; Wang, Zhenming; Liu, Jingwei

    2011-03-01

    Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

  12. Prototype of a web - based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aye, Z.C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.H.; van Westen, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and

  13. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine‐active substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop™ ?‘Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)’ was held from 31st January to 5th February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary aim of the workshop was to provide objective advice, based on current s...

  14. Effectuality of Cleaning Workers' Training and Cleaning Enterprises' Chemical Health Hazard Risk Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulqadir M. Suleiman

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: Training of cleaning workers lacks the prerequisite for suitability and effectiveness to counter risks of chemical health hazards. There is dereliction of duty by management in the sector resulting in a lack of competence among the cleaning workers. Instituting acceptable easily attainable safety competence level for cleaners will conduce to risk reduction, and enforcement of attainment of the competence level would be a positive step.

  15. A risk perception gap? Comparing expert, producer and consumer prioritization of food hazard controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Christina; Hübner, Philipp; Siegrist, Michael

    2018-06-01

    Using a survey approach, the study examined how experts (i.e. food control representatives), producers (i.e. food industry representatives) and consumers prioritized control activities for 28 hazards related to food and other everyday items. The investigated hazards encompassed a wide range of safety issues, including health risks, consumer deception and poor food hygiene behaviour. The participants included 41 experts, 138 producers and 243 consumers from the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland. Based on detailed descriptions of the hazards, they were asked to rank these on a score sheet in terms of the perceived importance of monitoring by food control authorities. A between-group comparison of average rankings showed that consumers and experts differed significantly in relation to 17 of the 28 hazards. While the experts assigned higher priority to hazards related to everyday items such as nitrosamine in mascara and chromium VI in leather products, producers and consumers tended to prioritize products related to plant treatment and genetic modification of food and feeds. Producer and consumer rankings of the hazards were highly correlated (r = .96, p < .001). Rankings were also similar among participants from the two cultural regions (i.e. German and French-speaking parts of Switzerland). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. [How to prevent hazards and to reduce risk in clinical trials?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czarkowski, Marek

    2008-12-01

    Different stakeholders involved in clinical trials are exposed to hazards related with this biomedical research. Beside clinical trials participants other important stakeholders are: investigators, sponsors, centers and clinical research organizations. Hazard prevention needs effective methods of hazard disclosure and analysis. A reduction of risks related with clinical trials is possible due to education, training, inspections, research discipline and penalties. Effective ways of hazard elimination or hazard reduction should be developed as well. Education and training should be offered to all stakeholders but their forms and contents should be adapted to different types of stakeholders. Direct control of the clinical trials should be held by stakeholders conducting clinical trials and outside inspections should be done by other institutions like clinical research organizations, research ethics committees and The Office for Registration of Medicinal Products, Medical Devices and Biocidal Products. Serious oversight is an absence of any independent inspection during a phase of publication of clinical trial results. We should not accept any exception from the golden rule that results of all clinical trials must be published. Indemnity for damages is a popular way of compensation for clinical trials participants. Investigators, sponsors and centers should have valid liability insurance. Drastic measures for reduction of risks in clinical trials are different kinds of penalties. They should prevent participation of unreliable stakeholders and promote those who respect regulations and high ethical standards.

  17. The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Miccadei

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

  18. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

  19. Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

    2010-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the

  20. Risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet: Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, S. M.; Greig, J. B.; Bridges, J. W.

    2002-01-01

    the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is. hazard identification. hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard......, on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled. is also considered. (C) 2002 ILSI. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd....... All rights reserved....

  1. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

    2016-01-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  2. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  3. Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

  4. Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Li, Jinhui; Chen, Shusheng; Diao, Weihua

    2012-06-01

    Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naime, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  6. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

    2017-03-15

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  7. Distance education course on spatial multi-hazard risk assessment, using Open Source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, C. J.; Frigerio, S.

    2009-04-01

    As part of the capacity building activities of the United Nations University - ITC School on Disaster Geo-Information Management (UNU-ITC DGIM) the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) has developed a distance education course on the application of Geographic Information Systems for multi-hazard risk assessment. This course is designed for academic staff, as well as for professionals working in (non-) governmental organizations where knowledge of disaster risk management is essential. The course guides the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. The courses consists of eight modules, each with a guide book explaining the theoretical background, and guiding the participants through spatial data requirements for risk assessment, hazard assessment procedures, generation of elements at risk databases, vulnerability assessment, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, risk evaluation and risk reduction. Linked to the theory is a large set of exercises, with exercise descriptions, answer sheets, demos and GIS data. The exercises deal with four different types of hazards: earthquakes, flooding, technological hazards, and landslides. One important consideration in designing the course is that people from developing countries should not be restricted in using it due to financial burdens for software acquisition. Therefore the aim was to use Open Source software as a basis. The GIS exercises are written for the ILWIS software. All exercises have also been integrated into a WebGIS, using the Open source software CartoWeb (based on GNU License). It is modular and customizable thanks to its object-oriented architecture and based on a hierarchical structure (to manage and organize every package of information of every step required in risk assessment). Different switches for every component of the risk assessment

  8. Expeditious Methods for Site Characterization and Risk Assessment at Department of Defense Hazardous Waste Sites in the Republic of Korea

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hartman, Dean

    1999-01-01

    ...) with preferred innovative site characterization technologies and risk assessment methods to meet their needs in obtaining hazardous waste site data and then prioritizing those sites for remediation based upon risk...

  9. An integrated risk communication system for the transport of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minor, J.W. IV; Abkowitz, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the development and implementation of the prototype of an an internet-based, risk communication system prototype for the transport of hazardous materials. The system was designed with the objectives of: (1) incorporating functionality and features that are useful for meeting a variety of risk communication needs, and (2) demonstrating a high degree of interaction among system components, enabling customisation to meet the specific transport risk communication needs requirements of the host organisation. To demonstrate 'proof of concept', the system is applied to two scenarios: 1) building knowledge and awareness, focusing on how information can be entered, organised and disseminated to the public and other transport stakeholders, and 2) emergency management, utilising the system for securely managing information in responding to a transport incident involving hazardous materials transport incident. The effectiveness of the system in these applications is subsequently discussed. (author)

  10. Development of training materials on the use of geo - information for multi - hazard risk assessment in a mountainous environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Westen, C.J.; Quan Luna, B.; Vargas Franco, R.D.; ... [et al.],; Malet, J.-P.; Glade, T.; Casagli, N.

    2010-01-01

    The analysis of multi-hazard risk requires the use of models that are very data demanding. Data is needed of the areas that might be affected and the characteristics of the hazard, but also of the elements at risk that might be impacted, and their vulnerability. In the framework of two European

  11. Waist-to-height ratio as index of cardiometabolic risk among the doctors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miliva Mozaffor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to see the cardiometabolic risk among doctors using waist-to-height ratio index as tool. Cardiometabolic risk is an umbrella term that includes all the risk factors of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study was conducted among 195 doctors. According to waist-to-height ratio index 167 (85.6% doctors had cardiometabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio index was found good (area under the curve >0.5, sensitivity 88.1%, specificity 23.2%, positive predictive value 53.9%, and negative predictive value 66.7% for their predictive value of cardiometabolic risk. Age grouping was done and found that no age group was free from cardiometabolic risk.

  12. Creating trust in a risk context. On social acceptance of risks in siting of repositories for radioactive and hazardous waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidskog, R.

    1993-01-01

    Taking Beck's and Giddens' recent formulation of the society's new conditions for gaining trust as theoretical point of departure, this article focusses trust and risk with regard to hazardous and radioactive waste disposal in Sweden. Seeing trust as intimately connected with cognitive understanding of risk, the information strategies of the companies with responsibility for hazardous and radioactive waste management are analyzed. Central in gaining trust is the creation of access points - points of connection between lay individuals or collectivities and the representatives of expert systems - at which trust can be built up or maintained. This article emphasizes that this kind of local conflict is to be seen as a struggle concerning the cognitive understanding of risk-generating activities, and the question is to what extent the cognitive understanding of nuclear companies will be accepted among the affected local population and to what extent the local population will develop and maintain an alternative cognitive understanding. 78 refs

  13. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  14. Perception of Lava Flow Hazards and Risk at Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Kona, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

    2001-12-01

    The island of Hawaii is composed of five sub-aerially exposed volcanoes, three of which have been active since 1801 (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai). Hawaii has the fastest population growth in the state and the local economy in the Kona districts (i.e., western portion of the island) is driven by tourism. Kona is directly vulnerable to future lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes, as well as indirectly from the effects of lava flows elsewhere that may sever the few roads that connect Kona to other vital areas on the island. A number of factors such as steep slopes, high volume eruptions, and high effusion rates, combine to mean that lava flows from Hualalai and Mauna Loa can be fast-moving and hence unusually hazardous. The proximity of lifelines and structures to potential eruptive sources exacerbates societies' risk to future lava flows. Approximately \\$2.3 billion has been invested on the flanks of Mauna Loa since its last eruption in 1984 (Trusdell 1995). An equivalent figure has not yet been determined for Hualalai, but an international airport, several large resort complexes, and Kailua-Kona, the second largest town on the island, are down-slope and within 15km of potential eruptive Hualalai vents. Public and perhaps official understanding of specific lava flow hazards and the perceptions of risk from renewed volcanism at each volcano are proportional to the time lapsed since the most recent eruption that impacted Kona, rather than a quantitative assessment of risk that takes into account recent growth patterns. Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai last directly impacted upon Kona during the notorious 1950 and circa 1801 eruptions, respectively. Various non-profit organizations; local, state and federal government entities; and academic institutions have disseminated natural hazard information in Kona but despite the intuitive appeal that increased hazard understanding and risk perception results in increased hazard adjustment adoption, this

  15. Chemical health risk assessment for hazardous and mixed waste management units at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) operates three Hazardous Waste Management Facilities with 24 associated waste management units for the treatment and storage of hazardous and mixed wastes. These wastes are generated by research programs and support operations. The storage and treatment units are presently operated under interim status in accordance with the requirements of the US Envirorunental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC), a division of the California Envirorunental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA). As required by the California Hazardous Waste Control Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), LLNL ha s applied for a Part B permit to continue operating the storage and waste treatment facilities. As part of this permitting process, LLNL is required to conduct a health risk assessment (HRA) to examine the potential health impacts to the surrounding community from continued storage and treatment of hazardous and mixed wastes. analysis document presents the results of this risk assessment. An analysis of maximum credible chemical accidents is also included in Section 7.0. This HRA was prepared in accordance with procedures set forth by the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA) ''Air Toxics Assessment Manual,'' CAPCOA guidelines for preparing risk assessments under the Air Toxic ''Hot Spots'' Act (AB 2588) and requirements of the US EPA. By following these procedures, this risk assessment presents a conservative analysis of a hypothetical Maximally Exposed Individual (MEI) using many worst-case assumptions that will not apply to an actual individual. As such, the risk estimates presented should be regarded as a worst-case estimate of any actual risk that may be present

  16. Mauna Loa--history, hazards and risk of living with the world's largest volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusdell, Frank A.

    2012-01-01

    Mauna Loa on the Island Hawaiʻi is the world’s largest volcano. People residing on its flanks face many hazards that come with living on or near an active volcano, including lava flows, explosive eruptions, volcanic smog, damaging earthquakes, and local tsunami (giant seawaves). The County of Hawaiʻi (Island of Hawaiʻi) is the fastest growing County in the State of Hawaii. Its expanding population and increasing development mean that risk from volcano hazards will continue to grow. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) closely monitor and study Mauna Loa Volcano to enable timely warning of hazardous activity and help protect lives and property.

  17. Risk factors for the hazard of lameness in Danish Standardbred trotters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigre, Håkan; Chriel, M.; Hesselholt, M.

    2002-01-01

    associations between the hazard of lameness and selected risk factors. The study population was dynamic and contained data of 265 Standardbred trotters monitored during 5 months in 1997 and 1998. The horses were greater than or equal to2 years old. Optimal training was defined as when the horse followed......-frequent cause of interruption of optimal training: 84 events in 69 horses (0.09 events per horse-month). Respiratory diseases (16 events) and muscular problems (seven events) were the second and third most-frequent causes of interrupted training. The effects of trainer, gender, age-group, time with a trainer......, participation in races and current month on the hazard of lameness were estimated in a multivariable Cox proportional-hazard model. The effects of trainer, gender and age-group were modelled as time-independent. The effects of time with a trainer, participation in races and the current month were modelled...

  18. Education and risk of coronary heart disease: Assessment of mediation by behavioural risk factors using the additive hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordahl, H; Rod, NH; Frederiksen, BL

    2013-01-01

    seven Danish cohort studies were linked to registry data on education and incidence of CHD. Mediation by smoking, low physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) on the association between education and CHD were estimated by applying newly proposed methods for mediation based on the additive hazards...... % CI: 12, 22) for women and 37 (95 % CI: 28, 46) for men could be ascribed to the pathway through smoking. Further, 39 (95 % CI: 30, 49) cases for women and 94 (95 % CI: 79, 110) cases for men could be ascribed to the pathway through BMI. The effects of low physical activity were negligible. Using...... contemporary methods, the additive hazards model, for mediation we indicated the absolute numbers of CHD cases prevented when modifying smoking and BMI. This study confirms previous claims based on the Cox proportional hazards model that behavioral risk factors partially mediates the effect of education on CHD...

  19. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  20. From preparedness to risk: from the singular risk of nuclear war to the plurality of all hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deville, Joe; Guggenheim, Michael

    2017-08-17

    Debates on risk have largely assumed risk to be the outcome of calculative practices. There is a related assumption that risk objects come only in one form, and that the reason not everything can be transformed into a risk is because of the difficulties in calculating and creating universal quantitative comparisons. In this article, building on recent studies of preparedness that have broadened understandings of risk, we provide an analysis of how preparedness measures might themselves produce risk, in particular through risk's durable instantiation, or what we call 'concretization'. Our empirical focus is on how government agencies in two countries shifted their attention from the risk of nuclear attack during the Cold War to an all hazards approach to preparedness. Comparing the mid- to late-twentieth century histories of the UK and Switzerland, we show that both countries shifted from focusing from a single risk to plural risks. This shift cannot be explained by a change in prevailing calculative practices, or by the fact that the risks changed historically. Instead, it is driven by historically specific changes in how risks are produced and reproduced in relation to how materializations of risk operate over time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

  1. GAPHAZ: improving knowledge management of glacier and permafrost hazards and risks in mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Burn, Chris; Clague, John J.; Hewitt, Ken; Kääb, Andreas; Krautblatter, Michael; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Reynolds, John; Sokratov, Sergey

    2014-05-01

    High-mountain environments worldwide are undergoing changes at an historically unprecedented pace due to the sensitivity of the high-mountain cryosphere to climate change. Humans have settled in many mountain regions hundreds, even thousands of years ago, but recent intensive socio-economic developments have increased exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructure to a large range of natural hazards related to high-mountain processes. Resulting risks are therefore increasing and highly dynamic. GAPHAZ, the Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and International Permafrost Association (IPA), is positioned in this context. The objectives of GAPHAZ are to: • improve the international scientific communication on glacier and permafrost hazards; • stimulating and strengthen research collaborations in the field of glacier and permafrost hazards; • compile a state of knowledge related to glacier and permafrost hazards in high mountains; • work towards a greater transfer of information and improved communication between the scientific and governmental/policy communities; • signpost sources of advice to international and national agencies, responsible authorities, and private companies; and • act as a focal point for information for international media during relevant crises. GAPHAZ has initiated a variety of activities over the past years to meet these objectives. One of the important issues is the development of standards of (1) how to make and portray technical assessments of glacier and permafrost related hazards and risks; and (2) how to communicate these to the public and a range of actors including those who implement measures. Thereby, difficulties of and need for better translation between techno-scientific understanding, and the situations and concerns of people most at risk in cold regions need to be recognized. Knowledge-transfer from the few well

  2. Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

  3. Hazard identification and risk assessment for biologics targeting the immune system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Andrea B

    2008-01-01

    Biologic pharmaceuticals include a variety of products, such as monoclonal antibodies, fusion proteins and cytokines. Products in those classes include immunomodulatory biologics, which are intended to enhance or diminish the activity of the immune system. Immunomodulatory biologics have been approved by the U.S. FDA for a variety of indications, including cancer and inflammatory conditions. Prior to gaining approval for marketing, sponsoring companies for all types of products must demonstrate a product's safety in toxicology studies conducted in animals and show safety and efficacy in clinical trials conducted in patients. The overall goal of toxicology studies, which applies to immunomodulatory and other product types, is to identify the hazards that products pose to humans. Because biologics are generally highly selective for specific targets (receptors/epitopes), conducting toxicology studies in animal models with the target is essential. Such animals are referred to as pharmacologically relevant. Endpoints routinely included in toxicology studies, such as hematology, organ weight and histopathology, can be used to assess the effect of a product on the structure of the immune system. Additionally, specialized endpoints, such as immunophenotyping and immune function tests, can be used to define effects of immunomodulatory products on the immune system. Following hazard identification, risks posed to patients are assessed and managed. Risks can be managed through clinical trial design and risk communication, a practice that applies to immunomodulatory and other product types. Examples of risk management in clinical trial design include establishing a safe starting dose, defining the appropriate patient population and establishing appropriate patient monitoring. Risk communication starts during clinical trials and continues after product approval. A combination of hazard identification, risk assessment and risk management allows for drug development to proceed

  4. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  5. Metabolic Risk Susceptibility in Men Is Partially Related to Adiponectin/Leptin Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Lena Vega

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. High adiponectin/leptin ratio may be protective from metabolic risks imparted by high triglyceride, low HDL, and insulin resistance. Methods. This cross-sectional study examines plasma adipokine levels in 428 adult men who were subgrouped according to low (<6.5 μg/mLand high (≥6.5 μg/mLadiponectin levels or a low or high ratio of adiponectin/leptin. Results. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower plasma triglyceride and higher HDL cholesterol than those with low ratio. Similarly, those with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower TG/HDL cholesterol ratio and HOMA2-IR than those with low ratio. In contrast, levels of adiponectin or the ratio of adiponectin/leptin did not associate with systolic blood pressure. But the ratio of adiponectin/leptin decreased progressively with the increase in the number of risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Conclusion. Adipokine levels may reflect adipose tissue triglyceride storage capacity and insulin sensitivity. Leptin is an index of fat mass, and adiponectin is a biomarker of triglyceride metabolism and insulin sensitivity. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratios have better triglyceride profile and insulin sensitivity than men with a low ratio regardless of waist girth.

  6. Building a risk-targeted regional seismic hazard model for South-East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, J.; Nyst, M.; Seyhan, E.

    2015-12-01

    The last decade has tragically shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs and initiatives to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way with the focus on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to develop appropriate models to cope with the economic consequences and impact on the insurance business. We present the source model and ground motions model components suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The source model builds upon refined modelling approaches to characterize 1) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 2) along the interface of subduction zones and within the slabs and 3) earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for the hazardous crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones, showcase some characteristics and sensitivities due to existing uncertainties in the rate and hazard space using a well selected suite of ground motion prediction equations. Finally, we analyze the source model by quantifying the contribution by source type (e.g., subduction zone, crustal fault) to typical risk metrics (e.g.,return period losses, average annual loss) and reviewing their relative impact on various lines of businesses.

  7. Use of risk to resolve conflicts in assessing hazards at mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechard, R.P.; Chu, M.S.Y.

    1991-01-01

    Two main issues contribute to the assessment of health hazard from mixed waste: the scientific methods to assess these materials and the legislative and regulatory control of these materials. This paper is primarily concerned with the scientific method of assessing hazards from mixed waste (i.e., carcinogenic chemicals, noncarcinogenic chemicals, and radioactive material). This paper discusses SRS, a Site Ranking System, and its use of risk concepts to avoid introducing new inconsistencies when ranking mixed-waste sites. SRS ranks each site by scoring factors that influence the human health risk. The factors are (1) the potentially exposed population, (2) the average amount of exposure to the waste, and (3) the toxicity of the waste. The relative risk of a release is measured as the product of these three factors. The third factor, toxicity, is indexed with a single score, but because methods of measuring toxicity differ for carcinogenic chemicals, noncarcinogenic chemicals, and radionuclides, comparison can be difficult; hence, this paper also summarizes the logic and assumptions used to make toxicity comparisons in SRS. As may be expected, results from a ranking scheme based on risk are different from results generated by the original Hazard Ranking System (HRS), used by the Environmental Protection Agency. This paper briefly discusses these differences for five Superfund sites (no mixed waste). The legislative and regulatory control of these materials to protect human health is also discussed. 37 refs., 1 tab

  8. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  9. Two Chaotic Patterns of Dynamic Risk Definition for Solving Hazardous Materials Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Mahmoudabadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the case of determining routes for hazardous material transportation, risk is considered as a main attribute. Transport risk, which is usually combined with other attributes such as cost or travel time, plays a significant role in determining paths for hazardous materials transportation. Since, risk is chaotically affected by road incidents, decision makers are dealing with selecting a method for defining chaotic risk factors in hazmat transportation. In this paper, transport risk has been defined as a chaotic variable using two different methods of generating chaotic patterns. In an experimental road network, which consists of eighty-nine nodes and one hundred and one two-way links, two different methods of generating chaotic variables have been used for applying the proposed procedure. In addition, results for different amounts of risk and cost have also been analyzed in case study. Results revealed that different cost and risk priorities change the frequencies of selected paths determined for hazmat transportation, but the route convergence of the route to chaos method is better than that of the logistic map equation.

  10. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  11. Risk assessment of hazardous impacts on urbanization and industrialization activities based upon toxic substances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Salem

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A risk assessment study was conducted to predict the expected hazardous influence on the ecosystem resulted from urbanization and industrialization activities at Helwan area, Egypt. To achieve these goals, soils, plants and water samples were collected from Helwan area, and their total concentrations of inorganic contaminants (Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organic pollutants; such as Phenol and hydrocarbons were measured. The obtained results showed that, the concentrations of organic contaminants in water streams and surrounding soils recorded high concentration values than the permissible limits, while inorganic elements were within the safe limits for irrigation. In addition, soils irrigated with the effluents of industrial units recorded high values of inorganic and organic contaminants. Consequently, the levels of these contaminants were high in plant tissues grown thereon; especially the edible parts. Risk assessment based on available Predicted No Effect Concentration values for the aquatic and terrestrial environment was performed. Inorganic elements were expected to cause serious hazard problems for both aquatic organisms and soil microorganisms. The impact of these pollutants on human health was calculated using daily metals intake of inorganic metals via consumption of edible plants. Hazard index values proved that concentrations of Cr may cause serious hazard problems for humans in this area; especially, children.

  12. Landscape susceptibility, hazard and risk assessments along pipeline corridors in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blais-Stevens, A.; Couture, R.; Page, A. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Geological Survey of Canada; Koch, J.; Clague, J.J. [Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada); Lipovsky, P.S. [Yukon Geological Survey, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This article discussed work that was carried out to inventory landslides and assess hazards along two proposed gas-pipeline routes in the North. Landslide inventories and hazard assessments are necessary to quantify and qualify the risk of environmental impacts from landslides on linear infrastructure. The Yukon Alaska Highway Pipeline and the Mackenzie Gas Project Pipeline, which will both be over 800 kilometres in length, will cross harsh landscapes characterized by permafrost terrain and will be at risk from geological hazards, including landslides with debris flows, earthquakes, subsidence, and permafrost degradation. The work involved inventorying and mapping landslides via aerial photography and field visits to identify the frequency-magnitude relationships for debris flow fans along the route and the creation of qualitative parametric landslide maps for both proposed pipeline corridors. A good correlation was found between actual landslide distribution and the landslide susceptibility maps. For the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor, most landslides have occurred in fine unconsolidated sediments and shallow slopes. Landslides in the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor mostly happened in unconsolidated sediments, but a few took place in bedrock with high relief. The preliminary investigation revealed that a slope hazard exists in both corridors and must be taken into account during pipeline development. The results are intended to facilitate better decision-making for planning, constructing, and maintaining safe and economically viable pipeline routes in Northern Canada. The mapping methodology was outlined. 13 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  13. Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeboah J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

  14. A prototype web-GIS application for risk analysis of natural hazards in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Gerber, Christian; Lévy, Sebastien

    2016-04-01

    Following changes in the system of Swiss subsidy in January 2008, the Swiss cantons and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) were forced to prioritize different natural hazard protection projects based on their cost-effectiveness, as a response to limited financial resources (Bründl et al., 2009). For this purpose, applications such as EconoMe (OFEV, 2016) and Valdorisk (DGE, 2016) were developed for risk evaluation and prioritization of mitigation projects. These tools serve as a useful decision-making instrument to the community of practitioners and responsible authorities for natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. However, there are several aspects which could be improved, in particular, the integration and visualization of spatial information interactively through a web-GIS interface for better risk planning and evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we aim to develop an interactive web-GIS application based on the risk concepts applied in Switzerland. The purpose of this tool is to provide a rapid evaluation of risk before and after protection measures, and to test the efficiency of measures by using a simplified cost-benefit analysis within the context of different protection projects. This application allows to integrate different layers which are necessary to calculate risk, in particular, hazard intensity (vector) maps for different scenarios (such as 30, 100 and 300 years of return periods based on Swiss guidelines), exposed objects (such as buildings) and vulnerability information of these objects. Based on provided information and additional parameters, risk is calculated automatically and results are visualized within the web-GIS interface of the application. The users can modify these input information and parameters to create different risk scenarios. Based on the resultant risk scenarios, the users can propose and visualize (preliminary) risk reduction measures before realizing the actual design and dimensions of such protective

  15. Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roder, Giulia; Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Lin, Ching-Weei; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this work is to investigate the natural hazard knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community, located in Fazhi Village in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Taiwan has encountered many different types of natural hazards (e.g. landslides and debris flows) that have increased sharply in the last century. Because of that, they are one of the most critical issues for the government and for the people living in mountainous areas. These areas are mainly populated by indigenous people that have experienced economic competition and military conflict with a series of colonizing periods causing a progressive loss of their original cultural identity. The motivation of selecting the case study of Wujie community is because (i) it has suffered, more than others, generations of devastating colonial oppression by foreign governments; (ii) the consequences of hydroelectric projects that moved a lot of water and sediment to the valley and modified the path of the river through the years; (iii) the documented landslides and debris flows occurred in the region during the last decades. Two questions appear spontaneously: How indigenous people are nowadays living with natural hazards? Have land use change or any other human footprint affected their knowledge and perception on natural hazards? This research, the first carried out in Taiwan involving an indigenous community, can offer a unique opportunity to answer these questions. The investigation utilized a variety of participatory methods conducted at the household and community level by the use of 65 face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that residents felt a higher worry about landslide and flood risks, and a slight preparedness to face them. This discrepancy may derive from an unsatisfactory level of communication and information, and the most considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. Results revealed also the complexity

  16. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  17. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T.; Biever, Ronald C

    2017-01-01

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop(®) "Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)" was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators...... and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS...... at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations...

  18. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  19. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  20. Industry-specific risk models for numerical scoring of hazards and prioritization of safety measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khali, Y.F.; Johnson, K.

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis consists of five cornerstones that have to be viewed in an holistic manner by risk practitioners of any organization regardless of the industry type or nature of its critical infrastructures. The cornerstones are hazard identification, risk assessment and consequence analysis, determination of risk management actions required to reduce risks to acceptable levels, communication of risk insights among the stake-holders, and continuous monitoring and verification to ensure sustained attainment of tolerable risk levels. Our primary objectives in this research are two fold: first, we compare and contrast a wide spectrum of current industry-specific and application-dependent semi-quantitative risk models. Secondly, based on the insights to be gained from the first task, we propose a framework for a robust risk-based approach for conducting security vulnerability assessment (SVA). Risk practitioners of critical infrastructures, such as commercial nuclear power plants, water utilities, chemical plants, transmission and distribution substations... etc., could readily use this proposed approach to classify, evaluate, and prioritize risks to support allocation of resources required to ensure protection of public health and safety. (author)

  1. Recent developments in health risks modeling techniques applied to hazardous waste site assessment and remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendez, W.M. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Remediation of hazardous an mixed waste sites is often driven by assessments of human health risks posed by the exposures to hazardous substances released from these sites. The methods used to assess potential health risk involve, either implicitly or explicitly, models for pollutant releases, transport, human exposure and intake, and for characterizing health effects. Because knowledge about pollutant fate transport processes at most waste sites is quite limited, and data cost are quite high, most of the models currently used to assess risk, and endorsed by regulatory agencies, are quite simple. The models employ many simplifying assumptions about pollutant fate and distribution in the environment about human pollutant intake, and toxicologic responses to pollutant exposures. An important consequence of data scarcity and model simplification is that risk estimates are quite uncertain and estimates of the magnitude uncertainty associated with risk assessment has been very difficult. A number of methods have been developed to address the issue of uncertainty in risk assessments in a manner that realistically reflects uncertainty in model specification and data limitations. These methods include definition of multiple exposure scenarios, sensitivity analyses, and explicit probabilistic modeling of uncertainty. Recent developments in this area will be discussed, along with their possible impacts on remediation programs, and remaining obstacles to their wider use and acceptance by the scientific and regulatory communities

  2. Truck shipment risks for assessing hazardous materials - a new paradigm incorporating safety and security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenberg, A.; McSweeney, T.; Allen, J.; Lepofsky, M. [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Abkowitz, M. [Dept. of Civil Engineering, Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Recent terrorist events, most notably September 11, 2001, have taught us that transportation risk management must be performed with a different lens to accommodate terrorism scenarios that would have previously been considered unlikely to warrant serious attention. Given these circumstances, a new paradigm is needed for managing the risks associated with highway transport of hazardous materials. In particular, this paradigm must: 1) more explicitly consider security threat and vulnerability, and 2) integrate security considerations into an overall framework for addressing natural and man-made disasters, be they accidental or planned. This paper summarizes the results of a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration for the purpose of exploring how a paradigm might evolve in which both safety and security risks can be evaluated as a systematic, integrated process. The work was directed at developing a methodology for assessing the impacts of hazardous materials safety and security incident consequences when transported by highway. This included consideration of the manner in which these materials could be involved in initiating events as well as potential outcomes under a variety of release conditions. The methodology is subsequently applied to various classes of hazardous materials to establish an economic profile of the impacts that might be expected if a major release were to occur. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings and implications associated with this effort.

  3. Assessment and management of cancer risks from radiological and chemical hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    A Joint Working Group was established in April 1995 by the President of the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) and the Assistant Deputy Minister of the Health Protection Branch of Health Canada to examine the similarities, disparities and inconsistencies between the levels of risk considered acceptable for regulating ionizing radiation and those considered acceptable for regulating chemical and microbiological hazards. During the process of collecting, analysing and interpreting information, the Joint Working Group realized that its terms of reference as written presented a major difficulty because of the lack of consensus on acceptable levels of risk. Consequently it decided that the most reasonable way to proceed was to compare the risk assessment and management processes used to protect the public from radiation, chemicals and microbiological hazards. This report concentrates on the assessment and management of ionizing radiation and genotoxic chemicals (which both cause cancer by damaging the DNA in cells) and pays less attention to non-genotoxic effects and microbiological hazards. The report also examines public more than occupational exposures and exposures from man-made rather than naturally occurring agents. (author)

  4. Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ümit Hacıoğlu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to examine the interaction between financial stress and conflict risk having impacts on fi nancial instruments in capital markets within an interdisciplinary frame. The Fuzzy TOPSIS method is applied in order to analyse effects of conflict hazard on capital markets and fi nancial instruments in the E7 economies and to demonstrate the best possible ranks of the E7 economies based on performance evaluation criteria. In order to obtain the dynamics of data as to develop a suffi cient reference bases for expert opinions, conflict hazard index and fi nancial stress index have been structured. The empirical results confirm that there is strong relation between fi nancial stress index and confl ict hazard index for the E7 economies. The fundamental conclusion demonstrates the effects of the financial and conflict risks for the stock selection in the E7 economies by the criteria derived from the Financial Stress Index and Confl ict Risk Index.

  5. A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Sela, Erika; Blaha, Ludek; Braunbeck, Thomas; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; García-Franco, Mauricio; Guinea, Joaquin; Klüver, Nils; Schirmer, Kristin; Tanneberger, Katrin; Tobor-Kapłon, Marysia; Witters, Hilda; Belanger, Scott; Benfenati, Emilio; Creton, Stuart; Cronin, Mark T D; Eggen, Rik I L; Embry, Michelle; Ekman, Drew; Gourmelon, Anne; Halder, Marlies; Hardy, Barry; Hartung, Thomas; Hubesch, Bruno; Jungmann, Dirk; Lampi, Mark A; Lee, Lucy; Léonard, Marc; Küster, Eberhard; Lillicrap, Adam; Luckenbach, Till; Murk, Albertinka J; Navas, José M; Peijnenburg, Willie; Repetto, Guillermo; Salinas, Edward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Spielmann, Horst; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Walter-Rohde, Susanne; Whale, Graham; Wheeler, James R; Winter, Matthew J

    2013-12-01

    Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Truck shipment risks for assessing hazardous materials - a new paradigm incorporating safety and security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, A.; McSweeney, T.; Allen, J.; Lepofsky, M.; Abkowitz, M.

    2004-01-01

    Recent terrorist events, most notably September 11, 2001, have taught us that transportation risk management must be performed with a different lens to accommodate terrorism scenarios that would have previously been considered unlikely to warrant serious attention. Given these circumstances, a new paradigm is needed for managing the risks associated with highway transport of hazardous materials. In particular, this paradigm must: 1) more explicitly consider security threat and vulnerability, and 2) integrate security considerations into an overall framework for addressing natural and man-made disasters, be they accidental or planned. This paper summarizes the results of a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration for the purpose of exploring how a paradigm might evolve in which both safety and security risks can be evaluated as a systematic, integrated process. The work was directed at developing a methodology for assessing the impacts of hazardous materials safety and security incident consequences when transported by highway. This included consideration of the manner in which these materials could be involved in initiating events as well as potential outcomes under a variety of release conditions. The methodology is subsequently applied to various classes of hazardous materials to establish an economic profile of the impacts that might be expected if a major release were to occur. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings and implications associated with this effort

  7. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Morabito

    Full Text Available Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks.Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65.A long time-series (2001-2013 of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST. LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1 the Linear Regression Model (LRM; 2 the Generalized Additive Model (GAM. Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m from the 2001 census (Eurostat source, and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI.The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities.This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat

  8. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat

  9. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labieniec, Paula Ann [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface.

  10. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labieniec, P.A.

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface

  11. Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Lima de Miranda

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i others’ responses (without sex specification, (ii men’s responses, and (iii women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies.

  12. Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2018-01-01

    Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846

  13. Technical risk audit method (tram): development and application to the auditing of major hazard sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddison, T.; Kirk, P.; Stansfield, R.

    1998-01-01

    The Technical Risk Audit Method (TRAM) has been developed by the UK Health and Safety Executive (UK HSE) as a risk-based auditing and inspection tool for application to Major Hazard process plant covered by the Seveso-I/Seveso-II directives. The objective of TRAM is to provide a framework in which plant inspection or audit can be undertaken and results collated. TRAM comprises a paper audit procedure and a software tool which is used to analyse the results. TRAM includes a semi-quantitative risk model, which may be used to rank risks both within and between similar facilities, using qualitative data collected during the inspection. The results of this qualitative analysis may be used to identify where inspector resources would be best deployed. To date, TRAM has been applied to a number of LPG storage and processing facilities in the UK, and the lessons learnt are being used to develop a robust version suitable for use by inspectors. The methodology will be made consistent with the risk model included in IEC 61508 'Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems' to permit its application to a wide range of process plant and other hazardous facilities. (authors)

  14. Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

  15. Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment for extreme objects and ecologically hazardous systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Veryuzhsky

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper include mostly the results of works of the Research Institute for Mechanics of Quickproceeding Processes united in a general research direction - creation of the methodology for risk assessment and risk management for ecologically hazardous systems, consisting of the set of different technological analyzed objects. The elements of system can be characterized by high level of radiation, toxic, explosion, fire and other hazards. The probalistic and deterministic approach for risk assessment, based on mathematical methods of system analysis, non-liner dynamics and computer simulation, has been developed. Branching in problem definition, as well as diversity of factor and criteria for determination of system status, is also taken into account. The risks caused by both objective and subjective factors (including human factor are examined. In many performed studies, the leading structural element, dominating in determination of the system safety, is the structural part of an object. The methodology is implemented for the safety analysis (risk assessment for Chernobyl NPP Shelton Object and other industrial buildings

  16. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  17. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T; Biever, Ronald C; Bjerregaard, Poul; Borgert, Christopher; Brugger, Kristin; Blankinship, Amy; Chambers, Janice; Coady, Katherine K; Constantine, Lisa; Dang, Zhichao; Denslow, Nancy D; Dreier, David A; Dungey, Steve; Gray, L Earl; Gross, Melanie; Guiney, Patrick D; Hecker, Markus; Holbech, Henrik; Iguchi, Taisen; Kadlec, Sarah; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Kawashima, Yukio; Kloas, Werner; Krueger, Henry; Kumar, Anu; Lagadic, Laurent; Leopold, Annegaaike; Levine, Steven L; Maack, Gerd; Marty, Sue; Meador, James; Mihaich, Ellen; Odum, Jenny; Ortego, Lisa; Parrott, Joanne; Pickford, Daniel; Roberts, Mike; Schaefers, Christoph; Schwarz, Tamar; Solomon, Keith; Verslycke, Tim; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R; Williams, Mike; Wolf, Jeffrey C; Yamazaki, Kunihiko

    2017-03-01

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop ® "Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)" was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS-not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk

  18. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T.; Biever, Ronald C.; Bjerregaard, Poul; Borgert, Christopher; Brugger, Kristin; Blankinship, Amy; Chambers, Janice; Coady, Katherine K.; Constantine, Lisa; Dang, Zhichao; Denslow, Nancy D.; Dreier, David; Dungey, Steve; Gray, L. Earl; Gross, Melanie; Guiney, Patrick D.; Hecker, Markus; Holbech, Henrik; Iguchi, Taisen; Kadlec, Sarah; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K.; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Kawashima, Yukio; Kloas, Werner; Krueger, Henry; Kumar, Anu; Lagadic, Laurent; Leopold, Annegaaike; Levine, Steven L.; Maack, Gerd; Marty, Sue; Meador, James P.; Mihaich, Ellen; Odum, Jenny; Ortego, Lisa; Parrott, Joanne L.; Pickford, Daniel; Roberts, Mike; Schaefers, Christoph; Schwarz, Tamar; Solomon, Keith; Verslycke, Tim; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R.; Williams, Mike; Wolf, Jeffery C.; Yamazaki, Kunihiko

    2017-01-01

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop® “Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)” was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS—not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk

  19. Toxic chemical hazard classification and risk acceptance guidelines for use in DOE facilities. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, D.K.; Davis, J.S.; Prowse, J.; Hoffman, P.W.

    1995-01-01

    The concentration-limit guidelines presented in this document apply to airborne releases of chemicals evaluated with respect to human health effects for the purposes of hazard classification and categorization, risk assessment and safety analysis. They apply to all DOE facilities and operations involving the use of potentially hazardous chemicals. The guidelines do not address other nonradiological hazards such as fire, pressure releases (including explosions), and chemical reactivity, but the guidelines are applicable to hazardous chemical releases resulting from these events. This report presents the subcommittee's evaluation and recommendations regarding analyses of accidentally released toxic chemicals. The premise upon which these recommendations are based is that the mechanism of action of toxic chemicals is fundamentally different from that associated with radionuclides, with the exception of carcinogens. The recommendations reported herein are restricted to the airborne pathway because in an accident scenario this typically represents the most immediately significant route of public exposure. However, the subcommittee recognizes that exposure to chemicals through other pathways, in particular waterborne, can have significant impacts on human health and the environment. Although there are a number of chemicals for which absorption through the skin can contribute measurably to the total dose in chronic (e.g., occupational) exposure situations, this pathway has not been considered for the acute exposure scenarios considered in this report. Later studies. will address these issues if it appears desirable

  20. A CONCEPTUAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FRAMEWORK FOR HEALTH AND SAFETY HAZARDS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir S. GOHARDANI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The health and safety hazard status of construction workers is constantly challenged by the projects in the built environment. In this article, various aspects of health and safety hazards for construction workers have been reviewed and investigated through a disaster risk reduction prism. This approach has further led to the perception of glancing at the construction sector as an ongoing disaster zone and equally provides a new management perspective. From this perspective, the occurrence of a disaster within the construction sector corresponds to the temporary or permanent ill-health or death of a construction worker. Geographical location is one of the factors that play an important role in addressing the health and safety hazards for construction workers. In addition to the location, geographical considerations equally encapsulate regional, cultural, governmental and work ethical effects. These effects may potentially contribute to disparities in the construction sector. With an increasing level of understanding for health and safety hazards in the construction domain, more efficient prevention measures can be taken in order to enable a disaster management cycle, capable of responding to the rigorous demands of the construction sector.

  1. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  2. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  3. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in diverse European natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are always managed within a broader context of relationships between governments, citizens, civil society and private business; these relationships shift and evolve over time with changing political currents and economic conditions. In Europe over the past 20 years or so, there has been a move away from government towards a broader practice of 'governance', a shift that is as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as it is to other societal concerns such as housing, economic regeneration or transport. Key characteristics of this change include the emergence of multi-level governance processes and the 'hollowing out' of the nation state; moves away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors specific to each policy area; the creation of new forms of authority and control; and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the full diversity of European national contexts and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is open to analysis and debate. In this paper, we propose a framework for profiling risk governance approaches in relation to key characteristics identified in both the general governance literature and in more specific work on risk governance. This framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national/regional context and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of nine governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as illustrating how it can be used in a process of discussion and debate about risk governance issues. We provide examples of the ways in which the profiling approach can enable comparison between risk governance contexts and approaches, and how it can be used in a variety of potential settings.

  4. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  5. Automating Risk Assessments of Hazardous Material Shipments for Transportation Routes and Mode Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, Barbara H.; Richins, William D.; Novascone, Stephen R.

    2010-01-01

    The METEOR project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) successfully addresses the difficult problem in risk assessment analyses of combining the results from bounding deterministic simulation results with probabilistic (Monte Carlo) risk assessment techniques. This paper describes a software suite designed to perform sensitivity and cost/benefit analyses on selected transportation routes and vehicles to minimize risk associated with the shipment of hazardous materials. METEOR uses Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the probability of an accidental release of a hazardous substance along a proposed transportation route. A METEOR user selects the mode of transportation, origin and destination points, and charts the route using interactive graphics. Inputs to METEOR (many selections built in) include crash rates for the specific aircraft, soil/rock type and population densities over the proposed route, and bounding limits for potential accident types (velocity, temperature, etc.). New vehicle, materials, and location data are added when available. If the risk estimates are unacceptable, the risks associated with alternate transportation modes or routes can be quickly evaluated and compared. Systematic optimizing methods will provide the user with the route and vehicle selection identified with the lowest risk of hazardous material release. The effects of a selected range of potential accidents such as vehicle impact, fire, fuel explosions, excessive containment pressure, flooding, etc. are evaluated primarily using hydrocodes capable of accurately simulating the material response of critical containment components. Bounding conditions that represent credible accidents (i.e; for an impact event, velocity, orientations, and soil conditions) are used as input parameters to the hydrocode models yielding correlation functions relating accident parameters to component damage. The Monte Carlo algorithms use random number generators to make selections at the various decision

  6. Toxicity ratios: Their use and abuse in predicting the risk from induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, C.W.; Taylor, G.N.; Lloyd, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The toxicity ratio concept assumes the validity of certain relationships. In some examples for bone sarcoma induction, the approximate toxicity of 239 Pu in man can be calculated algebraically from the observed toxicity in the radium-dial painters and the ratio of 239 Pu/ 226 Ra toxicities in suitable laboratory mammals. In a species highly susceptible to bone sarcoma induction, the risk coefficients for both 239 Pu and 226 Ra are elevated, but the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra tends to be similar to the ratio in resistant species. Among the tested species the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra ranged from 6 to 22 (a fourfold range), whereas their relative sensitivities to 239 Pu varied by a factor of 150. The toxicity ratio approach can also be used to estimate the actinide risk to man from liver cancer, by comparing to the Thorotrast patients; from lung cancer, by comparing to the uranium miners and the atomic-bomb survivors; and from neutron-induced cancers, by comparing to cancers induced by gamma rays. The toxicity ratio can be used to predict the risk to man from a specific type of cancer that has been reliably induced by a reference radiation in humans and that can be induced by both the reference and the investigated radiation in suitable laboratory animals. 26 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  7. Endocrine effects of chemicals: aspects of hazard identification and human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Colnot, Thomas

    2013-12-16

    Hazard and risk assessment of chemicals with endocrine activity is hotly debated due to claimed non-monotonous dose-response curves in the low-dose region. In hazard identification a clear definition of "endocrine disruptors" (EDs) is required; this should be based on the WHO/IPCS definition of EDs and on adverse effects demonstrated in intact animals or humans. Therefore, endocrine effects are a mode of action potentially resulting in adverse effects; any classification should not be based on a mode of action, but on adverse effects. In addition, when relying on adverse effects, most effects reported in the low-dose region will not qualify for hazard identification since most have little relation to an adverse effect. Non-monotonous dose-response curves that had been postulated from limited, exploratory studies could also not be reproduced in targeted studies with elaborate quality assurance. Therefore, regulatory agencies or advisory bodies continue to apply the safety-factor method or the concept of "margin-of-exposure" based on no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) in the risk assessment of chemicals with weak hormonal activity. Consistent with this approach, tolerable levels regarding human exposure have been defined for such chemicals. To conclusively support non-monotonous dose-response curves, targeted experiments with a sufficient number of animals, determination of adverse endpoints, adequate statistics and quality control would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A new hazard index for the determination of risk potentials of disposed radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, Gerald

    1990-01-01

    On the basis of a discussion of advantages and limitations of hazard calculations of nuclear waste, a new hazard index is presented. The model deals with environmental processes that determine radiation exposure to man after failure of a geologic repository and release of radionuclides into the biosphere. Included in the model are isotopic composition of the waste, probability for transport of nuclides to man, cycling in the biosphere, radiotoxicity to man and changes of the risk potential which are due to radioactive build-up and decay processes after the waste nuclides enter the biosphere. Nuclide-specific data necessary for the use of the new index are compiled. Calculations for wastes from different nuclear power reactor types and fuel cycle options indicate that 237 Np and 241 Am are the waste constituents with the most demanding requirements in regard to the long-term isolation potential of a repository. Isolation times required for the wastes analyzed are of the order of 10 7 years. Hazard analyses of nuclear wastes with negligible heat generation from various sources show that secondary wastes from nuclear fuel reprocessing and mixed-oxide fuel fabrication have long-term risk potentials which are about two orders of magnitude higher than those from other wastes. They should be disposed of together with high-level wastes. (author)

  9. 78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-19

    ... related to the proposed rule on ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based... . All comments should be identified with the title ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard... rulemaking to modernize the regulation for ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice In Manufacturing, Packing...

  10. 78 FR 64425 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ..., 507, and 579 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0922] Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and... requirements for current good manufacturing practice and hazard analysis and risk-based preventive controls for..., packing, or holding of animal food in two ways. First, it would create new current good manufacturing...

  11. 78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-26

    ... comments should be identified with the title ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and..., 114, 117, 120, 123, 129, 179, and 211 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0920] RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of...

  12. 78 FR 48636 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-09

    ... collection related to the proposed rule, ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk... period. These two proposals are related to the proposed rule ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and... final extension of the comment period for the ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis...

  13. OpenQuake, a platform for collaborative seismic hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, Paul; Burton, Christopher; Butler, Lars; Crowley, Helen; Danciu, Laurentiu; Nastasi, Matteo; Monelli, Damiano; Pagani, Marco; Panzeri, Luigi; Simionato, Michele; Silva, Vitor; Vallarelli, Giuseppe; Weatherill, Graeme; Wyss, Ben

    2013-04-01

    Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, tools and models for global seismic hazard and risk assessment, within the context of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and international organisations, all contributions are being integrated into OpenQuake: a web-based platform that - together with other resources - will become accessible in 2014. With OpenQuake, stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualize and investigate earthquake hazard and risk, capture new data and share findings for joint learning. The platform is envisaged as a collaborative hub for earthquake risk assessment, used at global and local scales, around which an active network of users has formed. OpenQuake will comprise both online and offline tools, many of which can also be used independently. One of the first steps in OpenQuake development was the creation of open-source software for advanced seismic hazard and risk calculations at any scale, the OpenQuake Engine. Although in continuous development, a command-line version of the software is already being test-driven and used by hundreds worldwide; from non-profits in Central Asia, seismologists in sub-Saharan Africa and companies in South Asia to the European seismic hazard harmonization programme (SHARE). In addition, several technical trainings were organized with scientists from different regions of the world (sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, Asia-Pacific) to introduce the engine and other OpenQuake tools to the community, something that will continue to happen over the coming years. Other tools that are being developed of direct interest to the hazard community are: • OpenQuake Modeller; fundamental

  14. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  15. Modeling the Qualitative Relationship among Risks Associated with Occupational and Workplace Hazards in Seaport Environments: the Case of Apapa Port, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nwokedi Theophilus C

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research is to establish the quantitative relationship and impacts of risks associated with various categories of occupational and workplace hazards in the Nigerian seaports. It was carried out by obtaining time series statistical data of 7 years from hazard identification and risk assessment report of Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA Apapa, western port headquarters. The variables considered are the associated risks of various types of occupational and workplace hazards to which seaport workers were exposed from 2009-2014. The overall level of associated risks of occupational and workplace hazards represent the cumulative of various hazards and were treated as the dependent variable ‘Y’. The exposures to the risks of mechanical hazards, ergonomic hazards, physical hazards, noise/environmental hazards were symbolized as X1, X2, X3, and X4 respectively and treated as independent variables. The method of multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the time series data. T-test was used to test the hypotheses. It was found that risks associated to mechanical hazard, ergonomic hazards, noise/vibration hazard, physical hazards, all have significant impact on the overall level of risk of exposure to occupational and workplace hazards in Nigerian seaport environment. It was recommended that proactive investment in safety inspective and management system is needed to limit the level of exposure of seaport staff to occupational hazards.

  16. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.; Whittle, R.

    2014-01-01

    Over recent decades there have been moves away from traditional forms of government towards broader practices of "governance". These moves are as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as they are to other societal concerns. Key characteristics of such changes include the emergence of multi-level governance processes, shifts away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors, the creation of new forms of authority and control, and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the varied national contexts in Europe and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is not at all clear. Such developments may also be evaluated in different ways; where some might see progressive reforms, others might see damaging undermining of established arrangements. In this paper, we propose a risk governance profiling framework that can be used to draw out the key characteristics of the ways in which natural hazards are governed in a particular governance setting. The framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national, regional or local context, and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of eight key governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as giving examples of profiles for different hazards in different parts of Europe. We suggest ways in which comparisons can be made between governance profiles, providing a stimulus and focus for debate and discussion around the trends of change in governance practice that have been, and are continuing, to take place.

  17. Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotham, Kevin Fox; Campanella, Richard; Lauve-Moon, Katie; Powers, Bradford

    2018-02-01

    This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

    2015-04-01

    Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

  19. Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

    2000-03-01

    A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

  20. An approach for balancing health and ecological risks at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Hull, R.N.; Stack, M.; Cornaby, B.W.; Hadden, C.T.; Zafran, F.A.

    1995-01-01

    Human health and ecological risks must be balanced at hazardous waste sites in order to ensure that remedial actions prevent unacceptable risks of either type. Actions that are designed to protect humans may fail to protect nonhuman populations and ecosystems or may damage ecosystems. However, there is no common scale of health and ecological risk that would allow comparisons to be performed. This paper presents an approach to addressing this problem based on classifying all risks (i.e., health and ecological risks due contaminants and remediation) as insignificant (de minimis), highly significant (de manifestis), or intermediate. For health risks the classification is based on standard criteria. However, in the absence of national guidance concerning the acceptability of ecological risks, new ecological criteria are proposed based on an analysis of regulatory precedents. Matrices and flow charts are presented to guide the use of these risk categories in remedial decision making. The assessment of mercury contamination of the East Fork Poplar Creek is presented as an example of the implementation of the approach. 15 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  1. Perceptions of psychosocial hazards, work-related stress and workplace priority risks in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortum, Evelyn; Leka, Stavroula; Cox, Tom

    2011-01-01

    During the last few decades, major global developments in the world of work include an international trend to shift production to developing countries, with wide variations in working conditions and exposure to traditional and emerging occupational risks, such as psychosocial risks. The latter have rarely been addressed or explored in developing and economically-emerging country contexts while we find an abundant body of research from industrialized countries. The research presented, which is part of a larger study, explored the perception of multi-disciplinary experts from different regions, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), of the nature of psychosocial hazards, and work-related stress, as well as their views on workplace priorities that require urgent attention. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 experts from developing countries which were subjected to thematic analysis. A two-tiered Delphi survey was completed by 74 experts in the first round with 53 of these experts completing the survey in the second round. Psychosocial hazards and work-related stress were mostly seen as interchangeable in terms of source and effect and all participants perceived them as concern to their workforce. Through the interviews and the Delphi surveys they allude to our contemporary understanding of psychosocial risks. Workplace risks of priority differed by region but primarily work-related stress, injury and accident prevention, and substance abuse and risk behaviors were reported to require urgent attention. The current lack of awareness and research in the area of psychosocial risks and work-related stress hampers action in developing countries. International experts should support the exchange of information and the development of interventions in workplaces in developing countries with a view to integrating these emerging risks into comprehensive occupational health and safety policy frameworks to make such approaches more effective.

  2. Training loads and injury risk in Australian football—differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

    2017-01-01

    Aims (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Methods Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2–9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14–35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R2). Results The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18–24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R2=0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R2=0.76–0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98–2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Conclusions Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. PMID:27789430

  3. EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ); Scientific Opinion on on the development of a risk ranking framework on biological hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    between the time frame and the requirements of the risk ranking exercise was stressed as well as the interaction between the risk managers and the risk assessors in the definition of the risk ranking purpose and the presentation of the results. Furthermore the development of a risk ranking toolbox based...

  4. Risk Analysis of Coastal hazard Considering Sea-level Rise and Local Environment in Coastal Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangjin, P.; Lee, D. K.; KIM, H.; Ryu, J. E.; Yoo, S.; Ryoo, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, natural hazards has been more unpredictable with increasing frequency and strength due to climate change. Especially, coastal areas would be more vulnerable in the future because of sea-level rise (SLR). In case of Korea, it is surrounded by oceans and has many big cities at coastal area, thus a hazard prevention plan in coastal area is absolutely necessary. However, prior to making the plan, finding areas at risk would be the first step. In order to find the vulnerable area, local characteristics of coastal areas should also be considered along with SLR. Therefore, the objective of the research is to find vulnerable areas, which could be damaged by coastal hazards considering local environment and SLR of coastal areas. Spatial scope of the research was set up as 1km from the coastline according to the 'coastal management law' in Korea. The assessment was done up to the year of 2050, and the highest sea level rise scenario was used. For risk analysis, biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics were considered as to represent local characteristics of coastal area. Risk analysis was carried out through the combination of 'possibility of hazard' and the 'level of damages', and both of them reflect the above-mentioned regional characteristics. Since the range of inundation was narrowed down to the inundation from typhoon in this research, the possibility of inundation caused by typhoon was estimated by using numerical model, which calculated the height of storm surge considering wave, tide, sea-level pressure and SLR. Also the level of damage was estimated by categorizing the socioeconomic character into four factors; human, infrastructure, ecology and socioeconomic. Variables that represent each factor were selected and used in damage estimation with their classification and weighting value. The result shows that the urban coastal areas are more vulnerable and hazardous than other areas because of socioeconomic factors. The east and the south coast are

  5. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary

  6. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  7. Robust routing for hazardous materials transportation with conditional value-at-risk on time-dependent networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    New methods are proposed for mitigating risk in hazardous materials (hazmat) transportation, based on Conditional : Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure, on time-dependent vehicular networks. While the CVaR risk measure has been : popularly used in financial...

  8. Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

    2018-04-21

    This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

  9. College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuerzer, T.

    2014-12-01

    This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building

  10. Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

    OpenAIRE

    Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

  11. Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-07-26

    This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

  12. Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

  13. Environmental education for hazardous waste management and risk reduction in laboratories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Rafael Pierre Martinez

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The University laboratories are places where teaching, extension and research activities are develop, which harmful substances are manipulated and hazardous waste are generated, the lack of information about this makes them an inadequate provision causing human health and environmental risks. This research proposes the implementation of environmental education as an alternative for waste management and safety in the University of Magdalena laboratories. Applying a series of polls showed the effectiveness with efficiency or assertively rises at 30% cognitive level during the process. It recommends to obtain better results is necessary evaluate the ethic component.  

  14. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

  15. (Reinsurance captives, efficiency and moral hazard. An attractive manner of risk financing and risk management for companies in certain circumstances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Weterings

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study the contribution is intended to provide more clarity and to demonstrate that under certain circumstances an insurance captive can have important efficiency effects and, among other things, a positive effect on moral hazard and adverse selection. For the purpose of acquiring more information on insurance captives and their operation, literature research was augmented by interviews conducted with the director of an insurance captive of a Dutch multinational, as well as with representatives from AON and Marsh, two major insurance brokers/consultancy firms in risk management that are often involved in the establishment and management of a captive

  16. A hazard and risk classification system for catastrophic rock slope failures in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanns, R.; Oppikofer, T.; Anda, E.; Blikra, L. H.; Böhme, M.; Bunkholt, H.; Dahle, H.; Devoli, G.; Eikenæs, O.; Fischer, L.; Harbitz, C. B.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Loew, S.; Yugsi Molina, F. X.

    2012-04-01

    The Geological Survey of Norway carries out systematic geologic mapping of potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway that can cause a catastrophic failure. As catastrophic failure we describe failures that involve substantial fragmentation of the rock mass during run-out and that impact an area larger than that of a rock fall (shadow angle of ca. 28-32° for rock falls). This includes therefore rock slope failures that lead to secondary effects, such as a displacement wave when impacting a water body or damming of a narrow valley. Our systematic mapping revealed more than 280 rock slopes with significant postglacial deformation, which might represent localities of large future rock slope failures. This large number necessitates prioritization of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic monitoring and permanent monitoring and early-warning. In the past hazard and risk were assessed qualitatively for some sites, however, in order to compare sites so that political and financial decisions can be taken, it was necessary to develop a quantitative hazard and risk classification system. A preliminary classification system was presented and discussed with an expert group of Norwegian and international experts and afterwards adapted following their recommendations. This contribution presents the concept of this final hazard and risk classification that should be used in Norway in the upcoming years. Historical experience and possible future rockslide scenarios in Norway indicate that hazard assessment of large rock slope failures must be scenario-based, because intensity of deformation and present displacement rates, as well as the geological structures activated by the sliding rock mass can vary significantly on a given slope. In addition, for each scenario the run-out of the rock mass has to be evaluated. This includes the secondary effects such as generation of displacement waves or landslide damming of valleys with the potential of later

  17. Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

  18. WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 12: Odds ratio and relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2018-07-01

    The calculation of odds ratios and relative risks may be required as part of a data analysis exercise. This paper explains how to set up these calculations in Microsoft Excel from a two by two contingency table. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Major hazard risk indicators for monitoring of trends in the Norwegian offshore petroleum sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinnem, Jan Erik; Aven, Terje; Husebo, Torleif; Seljelid, Jorunn; Tveit, Odd J.

    2006-01-01

    The Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA, formerly Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) took in 1999 the initiative to develop a method in order to assess trends and status for the risk levels in the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry. A method was developed, and a pilot study report was issued in April 2001, covering the period 1996-2000. Annual updates have been performed since then, and the latest report covers the period 1996-2004. The statistical approach is based on recording occurrence of near misses and relevant incidents, performance of barriers and results from risk assessments. Of similar importance is an evaluation of safety culture, motivation, communication and perceived risk. This is covered through the use of social science methods, such as questionnaire surveys and a number of interviews, audit and inspection reports as well as accident and incident investigations. There are also indicators for occupational accidents and occupational illness/-physical working environment factors. The focus is on the major hazard risk components for personnel staying on the offshore installations. An overview of the indicators used to illustrate these risk aspects is presented, followed by a discussion of the analytical approach used for these indicators. Results from the risk assessment for the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the period 1996-2004 are used throughout for illustration, and discussion of challenges

  20. Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public

  1. Overview of a benefit/risk ratio optimized for a radiation emitting device used in non-destructive testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maharaj, H.P., E-mail: H_P_Maharaj@hc-sc.gc.ca [Health Canada, Dept. of Health, Consumer and Clinical Radiaton Protection Bureau, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)

  2. Overview of a benefit/risk ratio optimized for a radiation emitting device used in non-destructive testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maharaj, H.P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)

  3. Implications of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Man-Made Hazards, Vulnerability Factors, and Risk to Environmental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddy, Christopher; Sase, Eriko

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this article was to examine the environmental health implications of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster from an all-hazards perspective. The authors performed a literature review that included Japanese and international nuclear guidance and policy, scientific papers, and reports on the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters while also considering all-hazards preparedness rubrics in the U.S. The examination of the literature resulted in the following: a) the authors' "All-Hazards Planning Reference Model" that distinguishes three planning categories-Disaster Trigger Event, Man-Made Hazards, and Vulnerability Factors; b) the generalization of their model to other countries; and c) advocacy for environmental health end fate to be considered in planning phases to minimize risk to environmental health. This article discusses inconsistencies in disaster planning and nomenclature existing in the studied materials and international guidance and proposes new opportunity for developing predisaster risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention capacity building.

  4. Overtopping hazards to port activities: Application of a new methodology to risk management (POrt Risk MAnagement Tool)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alises, Ana; Molina, Rafael; Gómez, Rebeca; Pery, Pascual; Castillo, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    In the past 20 years, the need of ports to serve a fleet whose dimensions are continuously increasing due to economies of scale, has derived on a port infrastructures growth with a trend to look for greater drafts at deeper waters and therefore the protection structures built in the last years have been increasingly exposed to severer maritime climate action. Consequently, overtopping phenomenon has been identified as a potential risk factor able to cause structural damages and operative failure modes to vulnerable economic activities located at these port facilities. Port activities must be developed ensuring operative and safety conditions what imply reducing uncertainties of overtopping phenomena by using prediction methods which may allow overtopping risk management. This paper provides a risk assessment methodology which is integrated into an overtopping risk management framework to cope with safety problems in port exploitation. Overtopping risk value is measured by combining probability of occurrence of an undesirable event together with its consequences, estimated in terms of costs or delays and given in base of the vulnerability of the affected port system. The development of this methodology is described and finally applied to a real case study what seems to reinforce the validity of the proposed method to overtopping risk assessment. - Highlights: • Infrastructure risk assessment involves both probabilistic and economic techniques. • Risk equation is posed by the combination of probability, vulnerability and cost. • Port infrastructures' vulnerability level depends on climate agents' action. • Economic value of natural hazards consequences is linked with vulnerability level. • Project planning process should be done taking into account the project's risk distribution

  5. Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaldi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply

  6. Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of the issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beven, K. J.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bates, P. D.; Borgomeo, E.; Goda, K.; Hall, J. W.; Page, T.; Phillips, J. C.; Rougier, J. T.; Simpson, M.; Stephenson, D. B.; Smith, P. J.; Wagener, T.; Watson, M.

    2015-12-01

    Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

  7. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  8. A structured hazard analysis and risk assessment method for automotive systems—A descriptive study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckers, Kristian; Holling, Dominik; Côté, Isabelle; Hatebur, Denis

    2017-01-01

    The 2011 release of the first version of the ISO 26262 standard for automotive systems demand the elicitation of safety goals following a rigorous method for hazard and risk analysis. Companies are struggling with the adoption of the standard due to ambiguities, documentation demands and the alignment of the standards demands to existing processes. We previously proposed a structured engineering method to deal with these problems developed in applying action research together with an OEM. In this work, we evaluate how applicable the method is for junior automotive software engineers by a descriptive study. We provided the method to 8 members of the master course Automotive Software Engineering (ASE) at the Technical University Munich. The participants have each been working in the automotive industry for 1–4 years in parallel to their studies. We investigated their application of our method to an electronic steering column lock system. The participants applied our method in a first round alone and afterwards discussed their results in groups. Our data analysis revealed that the participants could apply the method successfully and the hazard analysis and risk assessment achieved a high precision and productivity. Moreover, the precision could be improved significantly during group discussions.

  9. Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

    2014-05-01

    Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

  10. Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringland, J.T.

    1995-08-01

    The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

  11. Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

  12. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  13. [Waist-to-height ratio is an indicator of metabolic risk in children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle-Leal, Jaime; Abundis-Castro, Leticia; Hernández-Escareño, Juan; Flores-Rubio, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal fat, particularly visceral, is associated with a high risk of metabolic complications. The waist-height ratio (WHtR) is used to assess abdominal fat in individuals of all ages. To determine the ability of the waist-to-height ratio to detect metabolic risk in mexican schoolchildren. A study was conducted on children between 6 and 12 years. Obesity was diagnosed as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile, and an ICE ≥0.5 was considered abdominal obesity. Blood levels of glucose, cholesterol and triglycerides were measured. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative value, area under curve, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the WHtR and BMI were calculated in order to identify metabolic alterations. WHtR and BMI were compared to determine which had the best diagnostic efficiency. Of the 223 children included in the study, 51 had hypertriglyceridaemia, 27 with hypercholesterolaemia, and 9 with hyperglycaemia. On comparing the diagnostic efficiency of WHtR with that of BMI, there was a sensitivity of 100% vs. 56% for hyperglycaemia, 93 vs. 70% for cholesterol, and 76 vs. 59% for hypertriglyceridaemia. The specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under curve were also higher for WHtR. The WHtR is a more efficient indicator than BMI in identifying metabolic risk in mexican school-age. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

  15. The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among

  16. Training loads and injury risk in Australian football-differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

    2017-08-01

    (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Is High Serum LDL/HDL Cholesterol Ratio an Emerging Risk Factor for Sudden Cardiac Death? Findings from the KIHD Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K; Zaccardi, Francesco; Karppi, Jouni; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A

    2017-06-01

    Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), which are components of total cholesterol, have each been suggested to be linked to the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, the relationship between LDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of SCD has not been previously investigated. We aimed to assess the associations of LDL-c, HDL-c, and the ratio of LDL-c/HDL-c with the risk of SCD. Serum lipoprotein concentrations were assessed at baseline in the Finnish Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease prospective cohort study of 2,616 men aged 42-61 years at recruitment. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) were assessed. During a median follow-up of 23.0 years, a total of 228 SCDs occurred. There was no significant evidence of an association of LDL-c or HDL-c with the risk of SCD. In analyses adjusted for age, examination year, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, years of education, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, family history of coronary heart disease, and serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein, there was approximately a two-fold increase in the risk of SCD (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.21-3.11; p=0.006), comparing the top (>4.22) versus bottom (≤2.30) quintile of serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In this middle-aged male population, LDL-c or HDL-c was not associated with the risk of SCD. However, a high serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio was found to be independently associated with an increased risk of SCD. Further research is warranted to understand the mechanistic pathways underlying this association.

  18. Psychosocial Correlates of AUDIT-C Hazardous Drinking Risk Status: Implications for Screening and Brief Intervention in College Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahesh, Edward; Lewis, Todd F.

    2015-01-01

    The current study identified psychosocial variables associated with AUDIT-C hazardous drinking risk status for male and female college students. Logistic regression analysis revealed that AUDIT-C risk status was associated with alcohol-related negative consequences, injunctive norms, and descriptive norms for both male and female participants.…

  19. Assessment of groundwater contamination risk using hazard quantification, a modified DRASTIC model and groundwater value, Beijing Plain, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junjie; He, Jiangtao; Chen, Honghan

    2012-08-15

    Groundwater contamination risk assessment is an effective tool for groundwater management. Most existing risk assessment methods only consider the basic contamination process based upon evaluations of hazards and aquifer vulnerability. In view of groundwater exploitation potentiality, including the value of contamination-threatened groundwater could provide relatively objective and targeted results to aid in decision making. This study describes a groundwater contamination risk assessment method that integrates hazards, intrinsic vulnerability and groundwater value. The hazard harmfulness was evaluated by quantifying contaminant properties and infiltrating contaminant load, the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability was evaluated using a modified DRASTIC model and the groundwater value was evaluated based on groundwater quality and aquifer storage. Two groundwater contamination risk maps were produced by combining the above factors: a basic risk map and a value-weighted risk map. The basic risk map was produced by overlaying the hazard map and the intrinsic vulnerability map. The value-weighted risk map was produced by overlaying the basic risk map and the groundwater value map. Relevant validation was completed by contaminant distributions and site investigation. Using Beijing Plain, China, as an example, thematic maps of the three factors and the two risks were generated. The thematic maps suggested that landfills, gas stations and oil depots, and industrial areas were the most harmful potential contamination sources. The western and northern parts of the plain were the most vulnerable areas and had the highest groundwater value. Additionally, both the basic and value-weighted risk classes in the western and northern parts of the plain were the highest, indicating that these regions should deserve the priority of concern. Thematic maps should be updated regularly because of the dynamic characteristics of hazards. Subjectivity and validation means in assessing the

  20. Irrigation salinity hazard assessment and risk mapping in the lower Macintyre Valley, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingyi; Prochazka, Melissa J; Triantafilis, John

    2016-05-01

    In the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, secondary soil salinization occurs due to excessive deep drainage and the presence of shallow saline water tables. In order to understand the cause and best management, soil and vadose zone information is necessary. This type of information has been generated in the Toobeah district but owing to the state border an inconsistent methodology was used. This has led to much confusion from stakeholders who are unable to understand the ambiguity of the results in terms of final overall risk of salinization. In this research, a digital soil mapping method that employs various ancillary data is presented. Firstly, an electromagnetic induction survey using a Geonics EM34 and EM38 was used to characterise soil and vadose zone stratigraphy. From the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) collected, soil sampling locations were selected and with laboratory analysis carried out to determine average (2-12m) clay and EC of a saturated soil-paste extract (ECe). EM34 ECa, land surface parameters derived from a digital elevation model and measured soil data were used to establish multiple linear regression models, which allowed for mapping of various hazard factors, including clay and ECe. EM38 ECa data were calibrated to deep drainage obtained from Salt and Leaching Fraction (SaLF) modelling of soil data. Expert knowledge and indicator kriging were used to determine critical values where the salinity hazard factors were likely to contribute to a shallow saline water table (i.e., clay ≤35%; ECe>2.5dS/m, and deep drainage >100mm/year). This information was combined to produce an overall salinity risk map for the Toobeah district using indicator kriging. The risk map shows potential salinization areas and where detailed information is required and where targeted research can be conducted to monitor soil conditions and water table heights and determine best management strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  2. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  3. The breast cancer incidence risk among females and a hazards in the microenvironments of work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunon Zemła

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background. In the earlier examinations on the Silesia voivodeship territory was found ultimately that in the districts with greatest development of industry the incidence of breast cancer was significantly greater in native females (stationary population than in immigrants (no stationary population, which suggests that there is a harmful influence of industrial pollutants in the female population (a longer time living in such conditions. It is possible that various chemical compounds especially from industrial-communal emissions and in the place of work – in the atmosphere contribute to a rise in the incidence of breast cancer in females as well. Material and methods. In analyse case-control type two women populations, i.e. natives – 540 cases with a breast cancer and 687 cases of control (women born within Silesia voivodeship, and immigrants – 319 cases of ills for breast cancer and 446 not-ills (all ones born outside Silesia voivodeship – were examinated. Anywhere in this case checking thesis whether character and long-time of hazards in microenvironment of work is significant in a risk of breast cancer. Results. The females that manually working without hazards in the place of work were characterized a bigger breast cancer risk – independently from place of birth (natives, immigrants, age group (30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 60 and total age and the endemic areas about statistically significantly high or low incidence and mortality (tab. II, III. It can not distinguished in this study no bigger females group with any characteristic impurities in the place of work comparatively suffering groups to controls ones. Conclusions. In this study the occupational risk factors are small significant mark in the incidence for female breast cancer.

  4. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godoy, S.M.; Santa Cruz, A.S.M.; Scenna, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities

  5. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2012-01-01

    Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

  6. Subcutaneous to visceral fat ratio: a possible risk factor for metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shafqat MN

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Muhammad Nabeel Shafqat,1 Miqdad Haider,2 1Department of Medicine, University of Medical Sciences “Serafin Ruiz de Zarate” Villa Clara (UCMVC, Villa Clara, Cuba; 2Department of Internal Medicine, Fatima Memorial Hospital, Fatima Memorial College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, PakistanWe would like to comment, with great interest, about the recently published article “Visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio as a predictor of the multiple metabolic risk factors for subjects with normal waist circumference in Korea” by Oh et al,1 which we found very interesting and valuable. This study is a good step to determine the predictive value of visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio (VSR in persons with normal waist circumference for the diagnosis of risk factors for metabolic syndrome.View the original paper by Oh and colleagues.

  7. The 5 key questions coping with risks due to natural hazards, answered by a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegger, P.; Sausgruber, J. T.; Schiegg, H. O.

    2009-04-01

    Based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, human endeavours concern primarily existential needs, consequently, to be safeguarded against both natural as well as man made threads. The subsequent needs are to realize chances in a variety of fields, as economics and many others. Independently, the 5 crucial questions are the same as for coping with risks due to natural hazards specifically. These 5 key questions are I) What is the impact in function of space and time ? II) What protection measures comply with the general opinion and how much do they mitigate the threat? III) How can the loss be adequately quantified and monetized ? IV) What budget for prevention and reserves for restoration and compensation are to be planned ? V) Which mix of measures and allocation of resources is sustainable, thus, optimal ? The 5 answers, exemplified by a case study, concerning the sustainable management of risk due to the debris flows by the Enterbach / Inzing / Tirol / Austria, are as follows : I) The impact, created by both the propagation of flooding and sedimentation, has been forecasted by modeling (numerical simulation) the 30, 50, 100, 150, 300 and 1000 year debris flow. The input was specified by detailed studies in meteorology, precipitation and runoff, in geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology and slope stability, in hydraulics, sediment transport and debris flow, in forestry, agriculture and development of communal settlement and infrastructure. All investigations were performed according to the method of ETAlp (Erosion and Transport in Alpine systems). ETAlp has been developed in order to achieve a sustainable development in alpine areas and has been evaluated by the research project "nab", within the context of the EU-Interreg IIIb projects. II) The risk mitigation measures of concern are in hydraulics at the one hand and in forestry at the other hand. Such risk management is evaluated according to sustainability, which means economic, ecologic and social, in short, "triple

  8. Environmental hazard and risk characterisation of petroleum substances: a guided "walking tour" of petroleum hydrocarbons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, Johan; Geerts, Lieve

    2014-05-01

    Petroleum substances are used in large quantities, primarily as fuels. They are complex mixtures whose major constituents are hydrocarbons derived from crude oil by distillation and fractionation. Determining the complete molecular composition of petroleum and its refined products is not feasible with current analytical techniques because of the huge number of molecular components. This complex nature of petroleum products, with their varied number of constituents, all of them exhibiting different fate and effect characteristics, merits a dedicated hazard and risk assessment approach. From a regulatory perspective they pose a great challenge in a number of REACH processes, in particular in the context of dossier and substance evaluation but also for priority setting activities. In order to facilitate the performance of hazard and risk assessment for petroleum substances the European oil company association, CONCAWE, has developed the PETROTOX and PETRORISK spreadsheet models. Since the exact composition of many petroleum products is not known, an underlying assumption of the PETROTOX and PETRORISK tools is that the behaviour and fate of a total petroleum substance can be simulated based on the physical-chemical properties of representative structures mapped to hydrocarbon blocks (HBs) and on the relative share of each HB in the total mass of the product. To assess how differing chemical compositions affect the simulated chemical fate and toxicity of hydrocarbon mixtures, a series of model simulations were run using an artificial petroleum substance, containing 386 (PETROTOX) or 160 (PETRORISK) HBs belonging to different chemical classes and molecular weight ranges, but with equal mass assigned to each of them. To this artificial petroleum substance a guided series of subsequent modifications in mass allocation to a delineated number of HBs belonging to different chemical classes and carbon ranges was performed, in what we perceived as a guided "walking tour

  9. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  10. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simopoulos, Artemis P.

    2016-01-01

    In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC) membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity. PMID:26950145

  11. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artemis P. Simopoulos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity.

  12. Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul S Desikan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction.Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP Stage 1, we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10-5. We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC, providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680. Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62-4.24, p = 1.0 × 10-22. In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10-26 and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran-Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10-10, and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10-6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10-6 and in vivo markers of AD neurodegeneration (ADNI

  13. Comparing expressed and revealed preferences for risk reduction: different hazards and question frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDaniels, T.L.

    1988-01-01

    Studies often note the wide differences that exist in costs per death avoided across US federal programs and regulatory contexts. This paper explores two new, related explanations for these differences. First, it argues that the patterns of revealed preferences (public allocations) may be related to public values, which are measured here through subjects' expressed preference responses to a contingent valuation survey regarding risk reduction. Subjects' expressed values are compared to actual (and proposed) costs of safety regulations for a similar set of hazards. The authors discover strong congruence in the ranking of expressed values and actual values. Second, the paper presents the results of a subsequent survey that investigates why the patterns observed in the first survey might occur. It suggests that one reason for the observed similarities between revealed and expressed preferences may be in how choices are framed. The paper hypothesizes that both subjects and decision makers may frame valuation decisions in the same way: as percentage changes from the reference point provided by the base rate of deaths for that hazard

  14. A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

    2013-09-01

    A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

  15. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  16. Control de configuraciones peligrosas en instalaciones con riesgo asociado // Hazardous configurations control in risk related facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Torres - Valle

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available ResumenEl control de configuraciones peligrosas en instalaciones con riesgo asociado es una aplicación delos Análisis Probabilistas de Seguridad (APS previos de las mismas. Una opción de mayor alcancees el uso de monitores de riesgo los que permiten la detección en tiempo real de talesconfiguraciones. Dada la complejidad de los APS y de los monitores de riesgo, esta tarea requiere depersonal experto. El documento presenta un método cualitativo de control de configuracionespeligrosas basado en matrices de dependencias. El algoritmo, informatizado en el códigoCONFIGURACION, puede ser aplicado sin necesidad de APS previos ni uso de monitores de riesgo.La sencillez del método justifica su extensión a instalaciones donde tales herramientas no se handesarrollado, permitiendo así la detección de las configuraciones peligrosas durante su explotación yelevando la seguridad de las plantas. Un sistema similar al descrito se utiliza como ayuda en laoperación de la central nuclear de Embalse. El artículo muestra el uso del método utilizando comobase un sistema de seguridad simplificado.Palabras claves: control de configuración, Análisis Probabilista de Seguridad (APS, matriz de___________________________________________________________________________AbstractThe hazardous configurations control in risk related facilities is an application of the previousProbabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA. A more complete option is the risk monitoring for the on-linedetection of these configurations. The expert personnel are required for this task take into account thecomplexity of the PSA and risk monitor. The paper presents a method of configuration control, basedon dependence matrixes. The algorithm is included in a computer code called CONFIGURACION, todetermine these situations in a qualitative way, without previous PSA results or using a Risk Monitor.The simplicity of the method warrants its application to facilities where these tools have not

  17. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  18. Selecting the minimum risk route in the transportation of hazardous materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijan Žura

    1992-12-01

    Full Text Available The transportation of hazardous materials is a broad and complex topic. Percent and iveight of accidents of vehicles carrying dangerous goods are growing fast. Modern computer based information system for dangerous materials management is becoming more and more important. In this paper I present an interactive software system for minimum risk route selection based on the PC ARC/INFO. The model computes optimal path based on accident probability is computed from traffic accident rates, highway operational speed, traffic volume and technical characteristic of the roadwidth, radius and slope. Dangerous goods are classified into nine classes according to their impact to different sensible environment elements. Those sensible elements are drinking water resourses, natural heritage, forestry, agricultural areas, cultural heritage, urban areas and tourist resorts. Some results of system implementation on Slovenia road network are be presented.

  19. Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Sherbinin, Alex; Levy, Marc; Adamo, Susana; MacManus, Kytt; Yetman, Greg; Mara, Valentina; Razafindrazay, Liana; Aichele, Cody; Pistolesi, Linda; Goodrich, Benjamin; Srebotnjak, Tanja

    2012-01-01

    The potential for altered ecosystems and extreme weather events in the context of climate change has raised questions concerning the role that migration plays in either increasing or reducing risks to society. Using modeled data on net migration over three decades from 1970 to 2000, we identify sensitive ecosystems and regions at high risk of climate hazards that have seen high levels of net in-migration and out-migration over the time period. This paper provides a literature review on migration related to ecosystems, briefly describes the methodology used to develop the estimates of net migration, then uses those data to describe the patterns of net migration for various ecosystems and high risk regions. The study finds that negative net migration generally occurs over large areas, reflecting its largely rural character, whereas areas of positive net migration are typically smaller, reflecting its largely urban character. The countries with largest population such as China and India tend to drive global results for all the ecosystems found in those countries. Results suggest that from 1970 to 2000, migrants in developing countries have tended to move out of marginal dryland and mountain ecosystems and out of drought-prone areas, and have moved towards coastal ecosystems and areas that are prone to floods and cyclones. For North America results are reversed for dryland and mountain ecosystems, which saw large net influxes of population in the period of record. Uncertainties and potential sources of error in these estimates are addressed. (letter)

  20. Prototype of a Web-based Participative Decision Support Platform in Natural Hazards and Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zar Chi Aye

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo framework and its client side software development kit (SDK. The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

  1. Glacial Hazards in Chile: Processes, Assessment, Mitigation and Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasser, N. F.; Wilson, R.; Casassa, G., Sr.; Reynolds, J.; Harrison, S.; Shannon, S. R.; Schaefer, M.; Iribarran, P.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are capable of travelling considerable distances from their source and they represent one of the most important glacial hazards. In line with observations in other parts of the world, the frequency of GLOF events in Chile has increased in recent decades highlighting the need to quantify the flood risk posed to downstream areas. This poster presents the work of the `Glacial Hazards in Chile' project which aims to (1) better understand the processes that govern the development of GLOFs in Chile, (2) estimate the socio-economic effects of GLOFs in Chile, and (3) provide a GLOF risk assessment framework that can be applied to Chile and other lower income countries globally. As an initial step towards the completion of these aims, we have recently compiled the first glacial lake inventory for the central and Patagonian Andes, which details the temporal development of glacial lakes in this region over the past three decades. This analysis was used to identify two lakes of interest that were visited during a fieldwork expedition in February 2017. The first of these, Lago Chileno in Patagonia, has recently produced a large GLOF causing significant damage to the downstream floodplain, whilst the second was identified as one of the fastest growing lakes in the central Andes. Both these lakes were surveyed using aerial imagery acquired with a drone and a custom-built bathymetry boat, data from which will help to improve our understanding of the physical processes associated with glacial lake development and failure within the Chilean Andes.

  2. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Thouret

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows, and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials.

    In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access

  3. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

    2013-02-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

  4. The acute:chonic workload ratio in relation to injury risk in professional soccer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Shane; Owen, Adam; Newton, Matt; Mendes, Bruno; Collins, Kieran D; Gabbett, Tim J

    2017-06-01

    To examine the association between combined sRPE measures and injury risk in elite professional soccer. Observational cohort study. Forty-eight professional soccer players (mean±SD age of 25.3±3.1 yr) from two elite European teams were involved within a one season study. Players completed a test of intermittent-aerobic capacity (Yo-YoIR1) to assess player's injury risk in relation to intermittent aerobic capacity. Weekly workload measures and time loss injuries were recorded during the entire period. Rolling weekly sums and week-to-week changes in workload were measured, allowing for the calculation of the acute:chronic workload ratio, which was calculated by dividing the acute (1-weekly) and chronic (4-weekly) workloads. All derived workload measures were modelled against injury data using logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) were reported against a reference group. Players who exerted pre-season 1-weekly loads of ≥1500 to ≤2120AU were at significantly higher risk of injury compared to the reference group of ≤1500AU (OR=1.95, p=0.006). Players with increased intermittent-aerobic capacity were better able to tolerate increased 1-weekly absolute changes in training load than players with lower fitness levels (OR=4.52, p=0.011). Players who exerted in-season acute:chronic workload ratios of >1.00 to soccer players. A higher intermittent-aerobic capacity appears to offer greater injury protection when players are exposed to rapid changes in workload in elite soccer players. Moderate workloads, coupled with moderate-low to moderate-high acute:chronic workload ratios, appear to be protective for professional soccer players. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Radiation hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, L.

    1979-01-01

    On a scientific basis and with the aid of realistic examples, the author gives a popular introduction to an understanding and judgment of the public discussion over radiation hazards: Uses and hazards of X-ray examinations, biological radiation effects, civilisation risks in comparison, origins and explanation of radiation protection regulations. (orig.) [de

  6. The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budetta, P.

    2003-04-01

    This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

  7. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  8. Identification of Hazard and Risk for Glacial Lakes in the Nepal Himalaya Using Satellite Imagery from 2000–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Rounce

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya can threaten downstream communities and have large socio-economic consequences if an outburst flood occurs. This study identified 131 glacial lakes in Nepal in 2015 that are greater than 0.1 km2 and performed a first-pass hazard and risk assessment for each lake. The hazard assessment included mass entering the lake, the moraine stability, and how lake expansion will alter the lake’s hazard in the next 15–30 years. A geometric flood model was used to quantify potential hydropower systems, buildings, agricultural land, and bridges that could be affected by a glacial lake outburst flood. The hazard and downstream impacts were combined to classify the risk associated with each lake. 11 lakes were classified as very high risk and 31 as high risk. The potential flood volume was also estimated and used to prioritize the glacial lakes that are the highest risk, which included Phoksundo Tal, Tsho Rolpa, Chamlang North Tsho, Chamlang South Tsho, and Lumding Tsho. These results are intended to assist stakeholders and decision makers in making well-informed decisions with respect to the glacial lakes that should be the focus of future field studies, modeling efforts, and risk-mitigation actions.

  9. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Site Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Surrounding Communities of The Geysers Geothermal Development Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, M.; Hutchings, L. J.; Savy, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    We conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis from induced and tectonic earthquakes for a 50 km radius area centered on The Geysers, California and for the next ten years. We calculate hazard with both a conventional and physics-based approach. We estimate site specific hazard. We convert hazard to risk of nuisance and damage to structures per year and map the risk. For the conventional PSHA we assume the past ten years is indicative of hazard for the next ten years from Mnoise. Then, we interpolate within each geologic unit in finely gridded points. All grid points within a unit are weighted by distance from each data collection point. The entire process is repeated for all of the other types of geologic units until the entire area is gridded and assigned a hazard value for every grid points. We found that nuisance and damage risks calculated by both conventional and physics-based approaches provided almost identical results. This is very surprising since they were calculated by completely independent means. The conventional approach used the actual catalog of the past ten years of earthquakes to estimate the hazard for the next ten year. While the physics-based approach used geotechnical modeling to calculate the catalog for the next ten years. Similarly, for the conventional PSHA, we utilized attenuation relations from past earthquakes recorded at the Geysers to translate the ground motion from the source to the site. While for the physics-based approach we calculated ground motion from simulation of actual earthquake rupture. Finally, the source of the earthquakes was the actual source for the conventional PSHA. While, we assumed random fractures for the physics-based approach. From all this, we consider the calculation of the conventional approach, based on actual data, to validate the physics-based approach used.

  11. Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

  12. Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

    2015-01-01

    Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

  13. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  14. Ground motion input in seismic evaluation studies: impacts on risk assessment of uniform hazard spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, S.C.; Sewell, R.T.

    1996-07-01

    Conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates are studied: effects of uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) are examined for deriving probabilistic estimates of risk and in-structure demand levels, as compared to the more-exact use of realistic time history inputs (of given probability) that depend explicitly on magnitude and distance. This approach differs from the conventional in its exhaustive treatment of the ground-motion threat and in its more detailed assessment of component responses to that threat. The approximate UH-ISS (in-structure spectrum) obtained based on UHS appear to be very close to the more-exact results directed computed from scenario earthquakes. This conclusion does not depend on site configurations and structural characteristics. Also, UH-ISS has composite shapes and may not correspond to the characteristics possessed a single earthquake. The shape is largely affected by the structural property in most cases and can be derived approximately from the corresponding UHS. Motions with smooth spectra, however, will not have the same damage potential as those of more realistic motions with jagged spectral shapes. As a result, UHS-based analysis may underestimate the real demands in nonlinear structural analyses

  15. A Risk Assessment Model for Water Resources: releases of dangerous and hazardous substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebelo, Anabela; Ferra, Isabel; Gonçalves, Isolina; Marques, Albertina M

    2014-07-01

    Many dangerous and hazardous substances are used, transported and handled daily in diverse situations, from domestic use to industrial processing, and during those operations, spills or other anomalous situations may occur that can lead to contaminant releases followed by contamination of surface water or groundwater through direct or indirect pathways. When dealing with this problem, rapid, technically sound decisions are desirable, and the use of complex methods may not be able to deliver information quickly. This work describes a simple conceptual model established on multi-criteria based analysis involving a strategic appraisal for contamination risk assessment to support local authorities on rapid technical decisions. The model involves a screening for environmental risk sources, focussing on persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) substances that may be discharged into water resources. It is a simple tool that can be used to follow-up actual accident scenarios in real time and to support daily activities, such as site-inspections. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Mapping drought risk in Indonesia related to El-Niño hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supari, Muharsyah, R.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

    2016-05-01

    This work is aimed to identify areas in the country that are at high propensity to the impact of global climate phenomenon i.e. El-Nino. An affected area is recognized when rainfall decreases up to below normal condition which frequently leads drought event. For this purpose, two packages of gridded rainfall data at monthly basis with 0.5 spatial resolutions for 1950 2010 period were used, e.g. GPCC Full Data Reanalysis V.6 (product of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and CRU TS3.22 (product of Climatic Research Unit). El-Nino years were labelled based on Oceanic Nino Index, ONI. We applied frequency analysis to quantify the chance of El-Nino impact. GPCC data was found more accurate in representing rainfall observation than CRU data based on correlation test against station data. The results indicate the strong spatial and temporal dependencies of El-Nino impact. During peak of rainy and first transitional season (DJF and MAM), the probability to be affected by El-Nino is mostly less than 20% over whole country In contrast, July-October are months where areas with high and very high risk were observed over many regions such as Southern part of Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua. Further investigation at province level found that the timing of El-Nino impact starts in June. These results are potential to improve national capacity in risk management related to weather-climate hazards.

  17. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, Francois

    2005-01-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings

  18. Toxicovigilance: a new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, François

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  19. Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

  20. Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation

  1. Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit

  2. Subsidence Induced Faulting Hazard risk maps in Mexico City and Morelia, central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Solano-Rojas, D.; Hernández-Espriu, J.; Cigna, F.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.; Falorni, G.; Bohane, A.; Colombo, D.

    2012-12-01

    Subsidence and surface faulting have affected urban areas in Central Mexico for decades and the process has intensified as a consequence of urban sprawl and economic growth. This process causes substantial damages to the urban infrastructure and housing structures and in several cities it is becoming a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies in the next decades. Subsidence is usually associated with aggressive groundwater extraction rates and a general decrease of aquifer static level that promotes soil consolidation, deformation and ultimately, surface faulting. However, local stratigraphic and structural conditions also play an important role in the development and extension of faults. Despite its potential for damaging housing, and other urban infrastructure, the economic impact of this phenomena is poorly known, in part because detailed, city-wide subsidence induced faulting risk maps have not been published before. Nevertheless, modern remote sensing techniques are most suitable for this task. We present the results of a risk analysis for subsidence induced surface faulting in two cities in central Mexico: Morelia and Mexico City. Our analysis in Mexico City and Morelia is based on a risk matrix using the horizontal subsidence gradient from a Persistent Scatterer InSAR (Morelia) and SqueeSAR (Mexico City) analysis and 2010 census population distribution data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Defining subsidence induced surface faulting vulnerability within these urbanized areas is best determined using both magnitude and horizontal subsidence gradient. Our Morelia analysis (597,000 inhabitants with localized subsidence rates up to 80 mm/yr) shows that 7% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 14% of its population (11.7% and 2.3% respectively) lives within these areas. In the case of the Mexico City (15'490,000 inhabitants for the

  3. [Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio: in adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutelo, Jimena; Graffigna, Mabel; Honfi, Margarita; Migliano, Marta; Aranguren, Marcela; Proietti, Adrian; Musso, Carla; Berg, Gabriela

    2012-06-01

    Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) is an easy resource determination and it has good correlation with the HOMA index in adults. Due to physiological insulin resistance (IR) in adolescence it is necessary to find markers of IR independent of age, sex and pubertal stage. The objective was to identify reference values of TG/HDL ratio in a population of adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated 943 adolescents, 429 females and 514 males between 11 and 14. Anthropometric measures were determined and body mass index was calculated (BMI). Blood was extracted after 12 hours of fasting to determine glucose, triglycerides, HDL. The metabolic syndrome (MS) was diagnosed according to criteria of NCEP/ATP III modified by Cook. We excluded adolescents with MS or any component of it. We evaluated 562 adolescents (289 women and 273 men) with a weight of 48.91 +/- 6.51kg, BMI: 18.95 +/- 1.78, systolic blood pressure of 108.12 +/- 13.60 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure: 63.82 +/- 9.43 and waist circumference: 65.09 +/- 4.54 cm. TG/HDL ratio was 1.25 +/- 0.43, with a 95 percentile of 2.05. In adults, TG/HDL ratio greater than 3 is a marker of insulin resistance. We believe that a higher value to 2.05 might be a good index of insulin resistance in adolescence. TG/HDL ratio has the advantage of being methodologically simpler, more economical and independent of pubertal stage.

  4. Weather hazards and vulnerabilities for the European transport system - a risk panorama. EWENT project D5.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molarius, R.; Leviakangas, P.; Ronty, J.; Oiva, K. (eds.)

    2012-09-15

    This deliverable of EWENT project estimates the risks of extreme weather on European transport system. The main object of work package 5 in EWENT project was to perform a risk analysis based on impact and probability assessments carried out in earlier work packages (WP2-WP3). The results of WP 5 can be used as a starting point when deciding on the risk reduction measures, strategies and policies in the European Union. This deliverable also serves as a background material for the synthesis report (named shortly as Risk Panorama), which will summarise the findings of risk assessment and previous work packages. The methodological approach of EWENT is based on the generic risk management standard (IEC 60300-3-9) and starts with the identification of hazardous extreme weather phenomena, followed by an impact assessment and concluded by mitigation and risk control measures. This report pools the information from EWENT's earlier work packages, such as risk identification and estimation, into a 'risk panorama' and provides a holistic picture on the risks of extreme weather in different parts of Europe and EU transport network. The risk assessment is based on the definition of transport systems' vulnerability to extreme weather events in different countries and on calculations of the most probable causal chains, starting from adverse weather phenomena and ending up with events that pose harmful consequences to the transport systems in different climate regions. The latter part, the probabilistic section, is the hazard analysis. The vulnerability of a particular mode in a particular country is a function of exposure (indicated by transport or freight volumes and population density), susceptibility (infrastructure quality index, indicating overall resilience) and coping capacity (measured by GDP per capita). Hence, we define the extreme weather risk as Risk = hazard times vulnerability = P(negative consequences) times V[f(exposure, susceptibility, coping

  5. Hazard identification and risk characterization of bisphenols A, F and AF to aquatic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tišler, Tatjana; Krel, Alja; Gerželj, Urška; Erjavec, Boštjan; Dolenc, Marija Sollner; Pintar, Albin

    2016-05-01

    Production of bisphenol A (BPA) analogues such as bisphenol F (BPF) and bisphenol AF (BPAF) has recently increased, due to clear evidence of adverse effects of BPA on humans and wildlife. Bisphenols (BPs) have already been released into aquatic environment without previous available information about potential adverse effects of BPs and their potential risk to aquatic ecosystems. In this study, lethal and sublethal effects of BPF and BPAF to bacteria, algae, crustacea and fish embryos were investigated and the results were compared to the adverse effects obtained for BPA. We found that BPAF was the most toxic compound to Daphnia magna, Danio rerio and Desmodesmus subspicatus; the lowest 72 h EC50 (median effective concentration) and 21 d NOEC (no observed effect concentration) values were determined at 2.2 mg/L regarding zebrafish hatching success and 0.23 mg/L of BPAF obtained for growth and reproduction of water fleas, respectively. In most cases, BPA was more toxic to D. magna, D. rerio and D. subspicatus in comparison to BPF, but pigmentation of zebrafish embryos after 48 h of exposure and reproduction of water fleas after 21-day D. magna reproductive test exposure to BPF were much more impaired. Risk quotients (measured environmental concentration/21 d NOEC) showed that BPA, BPF and BPAF are recently not chronically hazardous to the survival, reproduction and growth of water fleas in surface waters. On the other hand, we importantly show that currently present BPAF concentrations in surface waters could cause a potential ecological risk to aquatic organisms. In the near future, higher concentrations of BPF and BPAF in surface waters are anticipated and for this reason further testing using test systems with various aquatic species and endpoints are needed to provide additional information about toxic impacts of BPF and BPAF on aquatic biota. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  7. 78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-20

    ... Federal Register of January 16, 2013 (78 FR 3646), entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and... a proposed rule entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based..., 114, 117, 120, 123, 129, 179, and 211 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0920] RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good...

  8. Multi-hazard risk assessment using GIS in urban areas: a case study for the city of Turrialba, Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Westen, Cees J.; Montoya, L.; Boerboom, Luc; Badilla Coto, Elena

    In the framework of the UNESCO sponsored project on “Capacity Building for Natural Disaster Reduction‿ a case study was carried out on multi-hazard risk assessment of the city of Turrialba, located in the central part of Costa Rica. The city with a population of 33,000 people is located in an area,

  9. 24 CFR 35.1320 - Lead-based paint inspections, paint testing, risk assessments, lead-hazard screens, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Lead-based paint inspections, paint testing, risk assessments, lead-hazard screens, and reevaluations. 35.1320 Section 35.1320 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT...

  10. Enhancing sediment flux control and natural hazard risk mitigation through a structured conceptual planning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoni, S.; Vignoli, G.; Mazzorana, B.

    2017-08-01

    Sediment fluxes from mountain rivers contribute to shape the geomorphologic features of lowland rivers and to establish the physical basis for an optimal set of ecosystem functions and related services to people. Through significant public funding, the hydro-morphological regimes of mountain rivers in the European Alps have been progressively altered over the last century, with the aim to provide a safe dwelling space, to boost transport, mobility and to support economic growth. We claim that the underlying planning weaknesses contribute to determine these inefficient resource allocations, since flood risk is still high and the ecosystem services are far from being optimal. Hence, with the overall aim to enhance sediment flux control and hazard risk mitigation in such heavily modified alpine streams, we propose a structured design workflow which guides the planner through system analysis and synthesis. As a first step the proposed workflow sets the relevant planning goals and assesses the protection structure functionality. Then a methodology is proposed to achieve the goals. This methodology consists in characterising the hydrologic basin of interest and the sediment availability and determining the sediment connectivity to channels. The focus is set on the detailed analysis of existing river cross sections where the sediment continuity is interrupted (e.g. slit and check dams). By retaining relevant sediment volumes these structures prevent the reactivation of hydro-morphological and associated ecological functionalities. Since their actual performance can be unsatisfying with respect to flood risk mitigation (e.g. mainly old structures), we introduce specific efficiency indicators as a support for the conceptual design stage to quantify effects related to sediment flux control and risk management. The proposed planning approach is then applied to the Gadria system (stream, slit dam, retention basin and culvert), located in South Tyrol, Italy. This case study

  11. Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

    2014-01-01

    Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

  12. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  13. Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dunand

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

  14. Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liping

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

  15. Hazard perception, risk perception, and the need for decontamination by residents exposed to soil pollution: the role of sustainability and the limits of expert knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandermoere, Frédéric

    2008-04-01

    This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological