Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

Indian values of tissue weighting factors for internal dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehta, S.K.

1995-01-01

In the present work the induced cancer component of detriment by the relative risk (RR) as well as US National Institute of Health (NIH) models using Indian organ based baseline cancer data and the all-causes mortality of the Indian population has been estimated. The Indian values of tissue weighting factors (W T ) have been worked out by the ICRP-60 methodology. The Indian values of detriment from the exposure of principal organs stomach, lung, colon and bone marrow are factors of 1.5 to 2.5 lower than the corresponding ICRP values. The Indian values of W T differ significantly from the ICRP five population average values. A tissue weighting factor of 0.08 for breast, colon, lung and stomach for the Indian population is more appropriate than the ICRP assigned factors of 0.05, 0.12, 0.12 and 0.12 respectively for these organs. For gonads, the appropriate Indian factor is 0.29 instead of the ICRP value of 0.20. The use of appropriate Indian values of W T is advocated for the Indian population in special investigation cases requiring regulatory intervention. (author). 11 refs., 11 figs., 4 tabs

ABC Classification of Risk Factors in Production Supply Chains with Uncertain Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandar Vujović

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of classification of risk factors in an uncertain environment is part of the risk management problem, which has a critical effect on the competitive advantage of production supply chain. The severities of consequences, their relative importance, and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are defined by risk management team, depending on their experience and the results of good practice. Fuzzy rating of the severities of consequences and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are described by linguistic expressions, which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. The risk values, obtained by the materialization of the identified risk factors, are given precisely with the usage of fuzzy algebra rules. The classification criterion is defined as the distance between current risk value and extreme risk values. The proposed model enables determination of the priorities of risk factors. It is illustrated by an example with real-life data from a production supply chain in auto industry.

Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

2012-01-01

There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xue Jinling; Lu Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Hu Hongying; Yu Ruozhen; Liu Zhengtao; Meng Wei

2012-01-01

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF L , which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment. (letter)

Optimal body fat percentage cut-off values for identifying cardiovascular risk factors in Mongolian and Han adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in Inner Mongolia, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yanlong; Wang, Hailing; Wang, Ke; Wang, Wenrui; Dong, Fen; Qian, Yonggang; Gong, Haiying; Xu, Guodong; Li, Guoju; Pan, Li; Zhu, Guangjin; Shan, Guangliang

2017-04-17

The present study was designed to determine the optimal cut-off values of body fat percentage (BF%) for the detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Mongolian and Han adults. This cross-sectional study involving 3221 Chinese adults (2308 Han and 913 Mongolian) aged 20-80 years was conducted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, in 2014. Data from a standardised questionnaire, physical examination and blood sample were obtained. The BF% was estimated using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Optimal BF% cut-offs were analysed by receiver operating characteristic curves to predict the risk of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the OR of each CVD risk factor according to obesity defined by BF%. Mean BF% levels were lower in men than in women (22.54±5.77 vs 32.95±6.18 in Han, 23.86±5.72 vs 33.98±6.40 in Mongolian population, respectively; ppopulation, the area under curve (AUC) values for BF% ranged from 0.589 to 0.699 for men and from 0.711 to 0.763 for women. Compared with men, AUCs for diabetes and clustering of ≥2 risk factors in women were significantly higher (ppopulation. In Han adults, the optimal BF% cut-off values to detect CVD risk factors varied from 18.7% to 24.2% in men and 32.7% to 35.4% in women. In Mongolian population, the optimal cut-off values of BF% for men and women ranged from 21.0% to 24.6% and from 35.7% to 40.0%, respectively. Subjects with high BF% (≥24% in men, ≥34% in women) had higher risk of CVD risk factors in Han (age-adjusted ORs from 1.479 to 3.680, 2.660 to 4.016, respectively). In Mongolia, adults with high BF% (≥25% in men, ≥35% in women) had higher risk of CVD risk factors (age-adjusted ORs from 2.587 to 3.772, 2.061 to 4.882, respectively). The optimal BF% cut-offs for obesity for the prediction of CVD risk factors in Chinese men and women were approximately 24% and 34% for Han adults and 25% and 35% for Mongolian

[Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

2016-01-26

To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

2016-12-01

The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Facts and values in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, Frank B.

1998-01-01

Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fadul, Abdulbagi; Na, Seong H.

2016-01-01

Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fadul, Abdulbagi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

Value Premium and Country Risk as Dimensions to Estimate Conditional Returns: a Study of the Brazilian Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilian de Castro Medeiros

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Asset pricing is a widely explored theme in the financial literature. Nevertheless, the phenomenon of value premium is still controversial, since although easily detected in developed and emerging markets, little is know about the economic forces that explain its existence. In this context, this article examines value premium in the Brazilian market and investigates the influence of the country risk variable as an additional risk factor for estimating conditional returns in this market not captured by value premium. For that, we employ a five-factor model, formulated by adding the country risk factor to the model of Carhart (1997. We apply the statistical procedure adopted by Fama & French (1993 to the period between 1994 and 2012, with data on nonfinancial companies listed on the BM&FBovespa. The results confirm the existence of value premium in the Brazilian market, and country risk and value premium together are significant factors to explain conditional returns.

Risk factors for recurrent spontaneous epistaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrich, Victor; Brozek, Annabelle; Boyle, Timothy R; Chyou, Po-Huang; Yale, Steven H

2014-12-01

To identify risk factors associated with spontaneous recurrent epistaxis. This was a retrospective cohort study assessing patients in the Marshfield Clinic system diagnosed as having epistaxis between January 1, 1991, and January 1, 2011. There were 461 cases with at least 2 episodes of spontaneous epistaxis within 3 years and 912 controls with only 1 episode in the same time frame. More than 50 potential risk factors were investigated, including demographic features, substance use, nasal anatomical abnormalities, nasal infectious and inflammatory processes, medical comorbidities, medications, and laboratory values. A Cox proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to calculate hazard ratios of epistaxis recurrence. Traditional risk factors for epistaxis, including nasal perforation, nasal septum deviation, rhinitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory tract infection, did not increase the risk of recurrence. Significant risk factors for recurrent epistaxis included congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and a history of anemia. Warfarin use increased the risk of recurrence, independent of international normalized ratio. Aspirin and clopidogrel were not found to increase the risk of recurrence. Few major adverse cardiovascular events were observed within 30 days of the first epistaxis event. Congestive heart failure is an underappreciated risk factor for recurrent epistaxis. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus may induce atherosclerotic changes in the nasal vessels, making them friable and more at risk for bleeding. Patients with recurrent epistaxis may also be more susceptible to developing anemia. Physicians should promote antiplatelet and antithrombotic medication adherence despite an increased propensity for recurrent epistaxis to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The societal impact value of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, D.E.

1995-04-01

A key ill-defined issue in the management and regulation of potentially hazardous conditions is that of the value to be associated with a reduction (or existence) of human health risks, such as radiation exposure or hazardous substance ingestion. Empirical observations of societal behavior patterns lead to a relationship for the quantitative value of societal risk impact which is consistent with general societal risk acceptance, is not inconsistent with ''de facto'' risk regulation, and is suitable and appropriate as a specification or guide for risk management and risk regulation. This societal risk impact expression is: Impact ($/year) = (8 x 10 7 ) NR i 4/3 where Ri = individual annual mortality risk; N = number of persons in the population sharing the risk and benefits. The change in Impact which can be derived from a regulation or risk management activity is the value of annual benefit which society would expect to forego (or annual equivalent cost to incur) in consideration of the activity

Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Novák, Martin

2010-01-01

The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

1998-01-01

textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

Heart disease - risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Backtesting Value-at-Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pajhede, Thor

2017-01-01

Testing the validity of value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts, or backtesting, is an integral part of modern market risk management and regulation. This is often done by applying independence and coverage tests developed by Christoffersen (International Economic Review, 1998; 39(4), 841–862) to so...

Contextual risk factors for low birth weight: a multilevel analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbenga A Kayode

Full Text Available Low birth weight (LBW remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA.Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana.Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01-2.01; P-value <0.05 while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29-3.61; P-value <0.01. In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.96; P-value <0.05.This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants.

Risk factors of falls among elderly living in urban Suez--Egypt.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamel, Mohammed Hany; Abdulmajeed, Abdulmajeed Ahmed; Ismail, Sally El-Sayed

2013-01-01

Falling is one of the most common geriatric syndromes threatening the independence of older persons. Falls result from a complex and interactive mix of biological or medical, behavioral and environmental factors, many of which are preventable. Studying these diverse risk factors would aid early detection and management of them at the primary care level. This is a cross sectional study about risk factors of falls was conducted to 340 elders in Urban Suez. Those are all patients over 60 who attended two family practice centers in Urban Suez. When asked about falling during the past 12 months, 205 elders recalled at least one incident of falling. Of them, 36% had their falls outdoors and 24% mentioned that stairs was the most prevalent site for indoor falls. Falls were also reported more among dependant than independent elderly. Using univariate regression analysis, almost all tested risk factors were significantly associated with falls in the studied population. These risk factors include: living alone, having chronic diseases, using medications, having a physical deficit, being in active, and having a high nutritional risk. However, the multivariate regression analysis proved that the strongest risk factors are low level of physical activity with OR 0.6 and P value 0.03, using a cane or walker (OR 1.69 and P value 0.001) and Impairment of daily living activities (OR 1.7 and P value 0.001). Although falls is a serious problem among elderly with many consequences, it has many preventable risk factors. Health care providers should advice people to remain active and more research is needed in such an important area of Family Practice.

Risk factors of falls among elderly living in Urban Suez - Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Kamel, Mohammed Hany; Abdulmajeed, Abdulmajeed Ahmed; Ismail, Sally El-Sayed

2013-01-01

Introduction Falling is one of the most common geriatric syndromes threatening the independence of older persons. Falls result from a complex and interactive mix of biological or medical, behavioral and environmental factors, many of which are preventable. Studying these diverse risk factors would aid early detection and management of them at the primary care level. Methods This is a cross sectional study about risk factors of falls was conducted to 340 elders in Urban Suez. Those are all patients over 60 who attended two family practice centers in Urban Suez. Results When asked about falling during the past 12 months, 205 elders recalled at least one incident of falling. Of them, 36% had their falls outdoors and 24% mentioned that stairs was the most prevalent site for indoor falls. Falls were also reported more among dependant than independent elderly. Using univariate regression analysis, almost all tested risk factors were significantly associated with falls in the studied population. These risk factors include: living alone, having chronic diseases, using medications, having a physical deficit, being in active, and having a high nutritional risk. However, the multivariate regression analysis proved that the strongest risk factors are low level of physical activity with OR 0.6 and P value 0.03, using a cane or walker (OR 1.69 and P value 0.001) and Impairment of daily living activities (OR 1.7 and P value 0.001). Conclusion Although falls is a serious problem among elderly with many consequences, it has many preventable risk factors. Health care providers should advice people to remain active and more research is needed in such an important area of Family Practice. PMID:23504298

A Probabilistic Alternative Approach to Optimal Project Profitability Based on the Value-at-Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggu Kim

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on an investment decision-making process for sustainable development based on the profitability impact factors for overseas projects. Investors prefer to use the discounted cash-flow method. Although this method is simple and straightforward, its critical weakness is its inability to reflect the factor volatility associated with the project evaluation. To overcome this weakness, the Value-at-Risk method is used to apply the volatility of the profitability impact factors, thereby reflecting the risks and establishing decision-making criteria for risk-averse investors. Risk-averse investors can lose relatively acceptable investment opportunities to risk-neutral or risk-amenable investors due to strict investment decision-making criteria. To overcome this problem, critical factors are selected through a Monte Carlo simulation and a sensitivity analysis, and solutions to the critical-factor problems are then found by using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and a business version of the Project Definition Rating Index. This study examines the process of recovering investment opportunities with projects that are investment feasible and that have been rejected when applying the criterion of the Value-at-Risk method. To do this, a probabilistic alternative approach is taken. To validate this methodology, the proposed framework for an improved decision-making process is demonstrated using two actual overseas projects of a Korean steel-making company.

[Hyperlipidemias as a coronary risk factor in the newborn].

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, A; De Tejada, A L; Espinoza, M; Karchmer, S

1976-01-01

This article reviews the risk factors of the coronariopathy in the newborn. The authors state that the early diagnosis of the risk factors is an important step in the prevention of ateromatous plaques. Some people are now in the investigation of the normal levels of cholesterol and triglicerides in the blood of the umbilical cord. This values seems similar in different places all over the world and have served to establish the possible interrelation between the newborn hiperlipidemia and the coronary risk.

Incremental Value of Repeated Risk Factor Measurements for Cardiovascular Disease Prediction in Middle-Aged Korean Adults: Results From the NHIS-HEALS (National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort).

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chung, Namsik; Kim, Hyeon Chang

2017-11-01

Increasing evidence suggests that repeatedly measured cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may have an additive predictive value compared with single measured levels. Thus, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of incorporating periodic health screening data for CVD prediction in a large nationwide cohort with periodic health screening tests. A total of 467 708 persons aged 40 to 79 years and free from CVD were randomly divided into development (70%) and validation subcohorts (30%). We developed 3 different CVD prediction models: a single measure model using single time point screening data; a longitudinal average model using average risk factor values from periodic screening data; and a longitudinal summary model using average values and the variability of risk factors. The development subcohort included 327 396 persons who had 3.2 health screenings on average and 25 765 cases of CVD over 12 years. The C statistics (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the single measure, longitudinal average, and longitudinal summary models were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.682-0.698), 0.695 (95% CI, 0.687-0.703), and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.744-0.760) in men and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.722-0.742), 0.735 (95% CI, 0.725-0.745), and 0.790 (95% CI, 0.780-0.800) in women, respectively. The net reclassification index from the single measure model to the longitudinal average model was 1.78% in men and 1.33% in women, and the index from the longitudinal average model to the longitudinal summary model was 32.71% in men and 34.98% in women. Using averages of repeatedly measured risk factor values modestly improves CVD predictability compared with single measurement values. Incorporating the average and variability information of repeated measurements can lead to great improvements in disease prediction. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02931500. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Yoga, Anxiety, and Some Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asim CENGIZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the effects of a yoga program on anxiety, and some cardiovascular risk factors. Forty - six elderly participants aged 40 – 51 years women. The yoga program was based on 3 times/week for 10 weeks a set of yoga techniques, in the form of asana (postures and deep relaxation technique, pranayama (breathing techniques and meditation three for 60 minutes three times a week. The level of anxiety and decreased the risk factors for cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD. The yoga program reduced the level of anxiety and decreased the risk factors for cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD in the experimental group. After 8 weeks of the yoga program. SBP, DBP, B MI, HR and WC values were improved. It is likely that the yoga practices of controlling body, mind, and spirit combine to provide useful physiological effects for healthy people and for people compromised by cardiovascular disease.

Bivariate value-at-risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Arbia

2007-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we extend the concept of Value-at-risk (VaR to bivariate return distributions in order to obtain measures of the market risk of an asset taking into account additional features linked to downside risk exposure. We first present a general definition of risk as the probability of an adverse event over a random distribution and we then introduce a measure of market risk (b-VaR that admits the traditional b of an asset in portfolio management as a special case when asset returns are normally distributed. Empirical evidences are provided by using Italian stock market data.

Value investing in emerging markets : local macroeconomic risk and extrapolation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kouwenberg, R.; Salomons, R.M.

2003-01-01

Our results confirm the profitability of value investing at the country level in emerging markets. A portfolio of countries with low price-to-book ratios significantly outperforms a portfolio of high price-to-book countries. Global risk factors cannot explain this outperformance. Next we measure a

Value of risk management

OpenAIRE

Vik, Marie Amdal

2012-01-01

Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

Risk Communication, Values Clarification, and Vaccination Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Witteman, Holly O; Chipenda Dansokho, Selma; Exe, Nicole; Dupuis, Audrey; Provencher, Thierry; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

2015-10-01

Many health-related decisions require choosing between two options, each with risks and benefits. When presented with such tradeoffs, people often make choices that fail to align with scientific evidence or with their own values. This study tested whether risk communication and values clarification methods could help parents and guardians make evidence-based, values-congruent decisions about children's influenza vaccinations. In 2013-2014 we conducted an online 2×2 factorial experiment in which a diverse sample of U.S. parents and guardians (n = 407) were randomly assigned to view either standard information about influenza vaccines or risk communication using absolute and incremental risk formats. Participants were then either presented or not presented with an interactive values clarification interface with constrained sliders and dynamic visual feedback. Participants randomized to the risk communication condition combined with the values clarification interface were more likely to indicate intentions to vaccinate (β = 2.10, t(399) = 2.63, p communication and values clarification methods may contribute to increased vaccination intentions, which may, in turn, predict vaccination status if logistical barriers are also addressed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

2007-01-01

This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Postpartum Depression in Women: A Risk Factor Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidi, Farheen; Nigam, Aruna; Anjum, Ruby; Agarwalla, Rashmi

2017-08-01

Postpartum Depression (PPD) is a known entity affecting not only the women but the whole family. It affects women more harshly and chronically due to their increased stress sensitivity, maladaptive coping strategies and multiple social roles in the community. To estimate the commonly associated risk factors of PPD among the women coming to a tertiary hospital in New Delhi, India. It was a longitudinal study conducted at the antenatal clinic for a period of one year. Total 260 women were screened at > 36 weeks of gestation, of which 149 postnatal women completed the questionnaire for PPD at six weeks of their delivery. The inform consent, demographical data and obstetrical details from each participant was taken before commencing the screening. Various risk factors and their association were determined by odds-ratio and significant association was accepted at order to identify the most important confounding variables, logistic regression analysis was used. PPD is a common mental health problem seen among the postnatal women as it was found in 12.75% (19 out of 149) of subjects at six weeks of their delivery. Moreover, it has significant association with the young maternal age (p-value=0.040), birth of the female child (p-value=0.015), previous stressful life events (p-value= 0.003), low self-esteem and feeling of loneliness (p-value=0.007). This study provides important information regarding the risk factors associated with development of PPD in this region of India. Female sex of the new born and the younger age play an important role in the development of PPD.

Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Bui Quang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

The Influence Factors and Mechanism of Societal Risk Perception

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Rui; Shi, Kan; Li, Shu

Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the societal hazards that the public cares a lot especially in Socio-economic transition period. A survey including 30 hazards and 6 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 2, 485 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following: Firstly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Secondly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk preference, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support fully moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief.

Risk Factors for Scleroderma

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... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

Risk Factors and Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

5 CFR 847.602 - Present value factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Present value factors. 847.602 Section... INSTRUMENTALITIES Additional Employee Costs Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.602 Present value factors. (a... present value factors for all CSRS annuities; (2) One table of present value factors for FERS annuities...

Value-at-risk estimation with fuzzy histograms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2008-01-01

Value at risk (VaR) is a measure for senior management that summarises the financial risk a company faces into one single number. In this paper, we consider the use of fuzzy histograms for quantifying the value-at-risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the use of fuzzy histograms provides a good

The effects of the Korean reference value on the prevalence of osteoporosis and the prediction of fracture risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sungwha; Choi, Moon-Gi; Yu, Jaemyung; Ryu, Ohk-Hyun; Yoo, Hyung Joon; Ihm, Sung-Hee; Kim, Doo-Man; Hong, Eun-Gyung; Park, Kyutae; Choi, Myungjin; Choi, Hyunhee

2015-03-27

Since the reference value is the core factor of the T-score calculation, it has a significant impact on the prevalence of osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of using the Korean reference value on the prevalence of osteoporosis and on the prediction of fracture risk. We used femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2008-2011. The Korean reference was identified by the mean and standard deviation of men and women aged 20-29 years. We compared the prevalence and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX™) probability obtained from the Korean reference and the NHANES III reference. In men, the prevalence of osteoporosis increased when using the Korean men's reference, and the difference increased up to 9% for those in their 80s. In women, the prevalence increased when using the NHANES III reference, and the difference increased up to 17% for those in their 80s. The reference value also affected the fracture risk probability, and the difference from changing the reference value increased in women and in subjects with more clinical fracture risk factors. In major osteoporotic fractures, the difference of the risk probability was up to 6% in women aged 70-79 years with two clinical risk factors. For femoral neck fractures, the difference was up to 7% in women aged 50-59 years with two clinical risk factors. We confirmed that the reference value had significant effects on the prevalence of osteoporosis and on the fracture risk probability. The KNHANES 2008-2011 BMD data reflected the characteristics of the Korean BMD status well with regard to data size and study design; therefore, these data can be used as reference values.

Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

2013-05-01

Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

Science.gov (United States)

Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

2013-10-01

Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

Stroke - risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-06-01

Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

Value-oriented risk management of insurance companies

CERN Document Server

Kriele, Marcus

2014-01-01

Value- and risk-oriented management is a holistic method of managing businesses. In this book both actuarial methods and methods pertaining to classical internal control and classical risk management are used. Therefore the approach taken is necessarily interdisciplinary. Indeed, there is a new dynamically developing field for actuaries as a result of the emphasis now on the measurement of risk. This book provides the required basic knowledge for this subject from an actuarial perspective. It enables the reader to implement in practice a risk management system that is based on quantitative methods. With this book, the reader will additionally be able to critically appraise the applicability and the limits of the methods used in modern risk management. Value- Oriented Risk Management of Insurance Companies focuses on risk capital, capital allocation, performance measurement and value-oriented management. It also makes a connection to regulatory developments (for example, Solvency II). The reader should have...

Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

2015-05-25

As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

Thoracic and abdominal aortic diameters in a general population: MRI-based reference values and association with age and cardiovascular risk factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mensel, Birger; Hesselbarth, Lydia; Wenzel, Michael; Kuehn, Jens-Peter; Hegenscheid, Katrin [University Medicine Greifswald, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology and Neuroradiology, Greifswald (Germany); Doerr, Marcus [University Medicine Greifswald, Department of Internal Medicine, Greifswald (Germany); DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Voelzke, Henry [University Medicine Greifswald, Institute for Community Medicine, Greifswald (Germany); DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Lieb, Wolfgang [Christian Albrechts University, Institute of Epidemiology, Kiel (Germany); Lorbeer, Roberto [Ludwig-Maximilians-University Hospital, Institute of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany)

2016-04-15

To generate reference values for thoracic and abdominal aortic diameters determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and analyse their association with cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. Data from participants (n = 1759) of the Study of Health in Pomerania were used for analysis in this study. MRI measurement of thoracic and abdominal aortic diameters was performed. Parameters for calculation of reference values according to age and sex analysis were provided. Multivariable linear regression models were used for determination of aortic diameter-related risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure (BP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). For the ascending aorta (β = -0.049, p < 0.001), the aortic arch (β = -0.061, p < 0.001) and the subphrenic aorta (β = -0.018, p = 0.004), the body surface area (BSA)-adjusted diameters were lower in men. Multivariable-adjusted models revealed significant increases in BSA-adjusted diameters with age for all six aortic segments (p < 0.001). Consistent results for all segments were observed for the positive associations of diastolic BP (β = 0.001; 0.004) and HDL (β = 0.035; 0.087) with BSA-adjusted aortic diameters and for an inverse association of systolic BP (β = -0.001). Some BSA-adjusted median aortic diameters are smaller in men than in women. All diameters increase with age, diastolic blood pressure and HDL-C and decrease as systolic BP increases. (orig.)

A Non-parametric Method for Calculating Conditional Stressed Value at Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kohei Marumo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We consider the Value at Risk (VaR of a portfolio under stressed conditions. In practice, the stressed VaR (sVaR is commonly calculated using the data set that includes the stressed period. It tells us how much the risk amount increases if we use the stressed data set. In this paper, we consider the VaR under stress scenarios. Technically, this can be done by deriving the distribution of profit or loss conditioned on the value of risk factors. We use two methods; the one that uses the linear model and the one that uses the Hermite expansion discussed by Marumo and Wolff (2013, 2016. Numerical examples shows that the method using the Hermite expansion is capable of capturing the non-linear effects such as correlation collapse and volatility clustering, which are often observed in the markets.

Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

2018-03-01

The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

The value of counting WHO-defined cardiovascular risk factors for death and disability in a national sample of adults with psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Lisa Anne; Mackinnon, Andrew; Foley, Debra L; Morgan, Vera A; Waterreus, Anna; Watts, Gerald F; Castle, David J; Liu, Dennis; Galletly, Cherrie A

2017-04-01

This study explored the prevalence and associations of eight WHO-defined CVD risk factors for death and disability in people with psychosis. The study included 1156 people aged 18-64years, diagnosed with psychosis. The 2009 World Health Organisation (WHO) Global Health Risks Report was used as a framework to determine the prevalence and number of eight key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in men and women with psychosis. Differences in the number and type of risk factors by age and gender were investigated. Multi-predictor analysis was performed to identify associations between demographic factors, psychiatric diagnosis and accumulative CVD risk factors. Women had fewer CVD risk factors than men. The number of risk factors significantly decreased in association with single marital status, current employment and significantly increased with earning a higher income. People aged 35-49years and 50-64years had an average of 4 risk factors (SD 1.38 and 1.30); people aged 18-34years had an average of 3 risk factors (SD 1.30). Mean risk factors were higher in the middle age and older age groups (35-49years and 50-64years) compared with the younger age group (18-34years) (prisks. These were more common in men and rose with age, implying the necessity of close clinical monitoring. The most common risk factors should be targeted by lifestyle interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electro smog. Health risks, limiting values, consumer protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karus, M.; Ebert, L.; Schneider, W.; Koehnecke, W.; Loefflad, H.; Plotzke, O.; Niessen, P.

1994-01-01

At first, the popular book describes physical facts. All terms and units being necessary for the comprehension of electro smog are presented and referred to practice: Which electric and magnetic fields of natural and technical origin appear in everyday life? The main part of the book occupies physical effects. The current scientific state of the research is presented: Are electric and magnetic fields a physical risk factor? In the chapter 'limiting values', the valid limiting values and their conceptional and political basis are discussed. The last part of the book addresses consumer protection: How can the own load be reduced through electric and magnetic fields of electric devices and installations, computers and mobile telephones without renouncing of electric comfort. (VHE) [de

Kindergarten risk factors, cognitive factors, and teacher judgments as predictors of early reading in Dutch.

Science.gov (United States)

Gijsel, Martine A R; Bosman, Anna M T; Verhoeven, Ludo

2006-01-01

This study focused on the predictive value of risk factors, cognitive factors, and teachers' judgments in a sample of 462 kindergartners for their early reading skills and reading failure at the beginning of Grade 1. With respect to risk factors, enrollment in speech-language therapy, history of dyslexia or speech-language problems in the family, and the role of gender were considered. None of these risk factors were significantly related to reading performance. Cognitive factors in this study included letter knowledge, rapid naming ability, and nonword repetition skills. Of these skills, letter knowledge seemed to have the highest correlation with reading. Kindergarten teachers' judgments, including a task assignment scale and teachers' predictions, demonstrated a significant relationship with reading. Finally, to judge whether these predictors could identify reading disabilities, the discriminatory power of all predictors was assessed and appeared to be insufficient. Implications for screening purposes are discussed.

The Functional Movement Screen and Injury Risk: Association and Predictive Value in Active Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Anderson, Morgan K; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2016-02-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a series of 7 tests used to assess the injury risk in active populations. To determine the association of the FMS with the injury risk, assess predictive values, and identify optimal cut points using 3 injury types. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Physically active male soldiers aged 18 to 57 years (N = 2476) completed the FMS. Demographic and fitness data were collected by survey. Medical record data for overuse injuries, traumatic injuries, and any injury 6 months after the FMS assessment were obtained. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated along with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to determine the area under the curve (AUC) and identify optimal cut points for the risk assessment. Risks, risk ratios (RRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% CIs were calculated to assess injury risks. Soldiers who scored ≤14 were at a greater risk for injuries compared with those who scored >14 using the composite score for overuse injuries (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.63-2.09), traumatic injuries (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.03-1.54), and any injury (RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.45-1.77). When controlling for other known injury risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor FMS performance (OR [score ≤14/19-21], 2.00; 95% CI, 1.42-2.81) as an independent risk factor for injuries. A cut point of ≤14 registered low measures of predictive value for all 3 injury types (sensitivity, 28%-37%; PPV, 19%-52%; AUC, 54%-61%). Shifting the injury risk cut point of ≤14 to the optimal cut points indicated by the ROC did not appreciably improve sensitivity or the PPV. Although poor FMS performance was associated with a higher risk of injuries, it displayed low sensitivity, PPV, and AUC. On the basis of these findings, the use of the FMS to screen for the injury risk is not recommended in this population because of the low predictive value and misclassification of the

Association of ABO blood groups and major ischaemic heart disease risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lutf-Ullah, L.; Akhtar, B.; Noor-Us-Saba; Hanif, A.; Khan, B.Z.; Bukhshi, I.M.

2010-01-01

To study the association of ABO blood groups with major ischaemic heart disease risk factors. Setting: Department of Cardiology, Mayo hospital, Lahore over a period of two years from January 2008 to December 2009. Study Design: Analytic comparative study. Subjects and Methods: The study group included 907 patients of ischaemic heart disease (IHD). The distribution of ABO blood groups in IHD patients was compared for presence or absence of major IHD risk factors. Data was analyzed using SPSS 16. ANOVA and Chi-square tests for significance were used. P-value less than 0.05 was taken as significant. Results: In this study, the following pattern of ABO blood groups was observed in IHD patients : blood group A 251 (27.67%); blood group B 329 (36.27%); blood group O 235 (25.91%); blood group AB 92 (10.14%). We found no relation-ship of ABO blood groups with age (p-value = 0.234), gender (p-value = 0.093), hypertension (p-value = 0.230), diabetes mellitus (p-value = 0.801), family history of IHD (p-value = 0.277), transverse ear lobe crease (p-value = 0.231), total cholesterol (p-value = 0.797), triglycerides (p-value = 0.351), low density lipoprotein (p-value = 0.078), high density lipoprotein (p-value = 0.114). Similarly no relationship was found of smoking, weight, height and body mass index with ABO blood groups, p-values 0.428, 0.528, 0.908 and 0.455 respectively. Conclusion: There is no association of ABO blood groups and major ischaemic heart disease risk factors. (author)

Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

1997-01-01

textabstractAccurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financial applications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaR evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by

Foraging Value, Risk Avoidance, and Multiple Control Signals: How the Anterior Cingulate Cortex Controls Value-based Decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Joshua W; Alexander, William H

2017-10-01

Recent work on the role of the ACC in cognition has focused on choice difficulty, action value, risk avoidance, conflict resolution, and the value of exerting control among other factors. A main underlying question is what are the output signals of ACC, and relatedly, what is their effect on downstream cognitive processes? Here we propose a model of how ACC influences cognitive processing in other brain regions that choose actions. The model builds on the earlier Predicted Response Outcome model and suggests that ACC learns to represent specifically the states in which the potential costs or risks of an action are high, on both short and long timescales. It then uses those cost signals as a basis to bias decisions to minimize losses while maximizing gains. The model simulates both proactive and reactive control signals and accounts for a variety of empirical findings regarding value-based decision-making.

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Radium concentration factors and their use in health and environmental risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meinhold, A.F.; Hamilton, L.D.

1991-01-01

Radium is known to be taken up by aquatic animals, and tends to accumulate in bone, shell and exoskeleton. The most common approach to estimating the uptake of a radionuclide by aquatic animals for use in health and environmental risk assessments is the concentration factor method. The concentration factor method relates the concentration of a contaminant in an organism to the concentration in the surrounding water. Site specific data are not usually available, and generic, default values are often used in risk assessment studies. This paper describes the concentration factor method, summarizes some of the variables which may influence the concentration factor for radium, reviews reported concentration factors measured in marine environments and presents concentration factors derived from data collected in a study in coastal Louisiana. The use of generic default values for the concentration factor is also discussed

Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

OpenAIRE

TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

2015-01-01

There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

[Risk factors of schizophrenia].

Science.gov (United States)

Suvisaari, Jaana

2010-01-01

Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

1994-11-01

This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

Risk factors for stress fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennell, K; Matheson, G; Meeuwisse, W; Brukner, P

1999-08-01

Preventing stress fractures requires knowledge of the risk factors that predispose to this injury. The aetiology of stress fractures is multifactorial, but methodological limitations and expediency often lead to research study designs that evaluate individual risk factors. Intrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as bone density, skeletal alignment and body size and composition, physiological factors such as bone turnover rate, flexibility, and muscular strength and endurance, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors. Extrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as surface, footwear and external loading as well as physical training parameters. Psychological traits may also play a role in increasing stress fracture risk. Equally important to these types of analyses of individual risk factors is the integration of information to produce a composite picture of risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically appraise the existing literature by evaluating study design and quality, in order to provide a current synopsis of the known scientific information related to stress fracture risk factors. The literature is not fully complete with well conducted studies on this topic, but a great deal of information has accumulated over the past 20 years. Although stress fractures result from repeated loading, the exact contribution of training factors (volume, intensity, surface) has not been clearly established. From what we do know, menstrual disturbances, caloric restriction, lower bone density, muscle weakness and leg length differences are risk factors for stress fracture. Other time-honoured risk factors such as lower extremity alignment have not been shown to be causative even though anecdotal evidence indicates they are likely to play an important role in stress fracture pathogenesis.

Assessment of groundwater contamination risk using hazard quantification, a modified DRASTIC model and groundwater value, Beijing Plain, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Junjie; He, Jiangtao; Chen, Honghan

2012-08-15

Groundwater contamination risk assessment is an effective tool for groundwater management. Most existing risk assessment methods only consider the basic contamination process based upon evaluations of hazards and aquifer vulnerability. In view of groundwater exploitation potentiality, including the value of contamination-threatened groundwater could provide relatively objective and targeted results to aid in decision making. This study describes a groundwater contamination risk assessment method that integrates hazards, intrinsic vulnerability and groundwater value. The hazard harmfulness was evaluated by quantifying contaminant properties and infiltrating contaminant load, the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability was evaluated using a modified DRASTIC model and the groundwater value was evaluated based on groundwater quality and aquifer storage. Two groundwater contamination risk maps were produced by combining the above factors: a basic risk map and a value-weighted risk map. The basic risk map was produced by overlaying the hazard map and the intrinsic vulnerability map. The value-weighted risk map was produced by overlaying the basic risk map and the groundwater value map. Relevant validation was completed by contaminant distributions and site investigation. Using Beijing Plain, China, as an example, thematic maps of the three factors and the two risks were generated. The thematic maps suggested that landfills, gas stations and oil depots, and industrial areas were the most harmful potential contamination sources. The western and northern parts of the plain were the most vulnerable areas and had the highest groundwater value. Additionally, both the basic and value-weighted risk classes in the western and northern parts of the plain were the highest, indicating that these regions should deserve the priority of concern. Thematic maps should be updated regularly because of the dynamic characteristics of hazards. Subjectivity and validation means in assessing the

On the use of sibling recurrence risks to select environmental factors liable to interact with genetic risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazma, Rémi; Bonaïti-Pellié, Catherine; Norris, Jill M; Génin, Emmanuelle

2010-01-01

Gene-environment interactions are likely to be involved in the susceptibility to multifactorial diseases but are difficult to detect. Available methods usually concentrate on some particular genetic and environmental factors. In this paper, we propose a new method to determine whether a given exposure is susceptible to interact with unknown genetic factors. Rather than focusing on a specific genetic factor, the degree of familial aggregation is used as a surrogate for genetic factors. A test comparing the recurrence risks in sibs according to the exposure of indexes is proposed and its power is studied for varying values of model parameters. The Exposed versus Unexposed Recurrence Analysis (EURECA) is valuable for common diseases with moderate familial aggregation, only when the role of exposure has been clearly outlined. Interestingly, accounting for a sibling correlation for the exposure increases the power of EURECA. An application on a sample ascertained through one index affected with type 2 diabetes is presented where gene-environment interactions involving obesity and physical inactivity are investigated. Association of obesity with type 2 diabetes is clearly evidenced and a potential interaction involving this factor is suggested in Hispanics (P=0.045), whereas a clear gene-environment interaction is evidenced involving physical inactivity only in non-Hispanic whites (P=0.028). The proposed method might be of particular interest before genetic studies to help determine the environmental risk factors that will need to be accounted for to increase the power to detect genetic risk factors and to select the most appropriate samples to genotype.

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Gambling Disorder and Minority Populations: Prevalence and Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Okuda, Mayumi; Liu, Weiwei; Cisewski, Jodi A; Segura, Luis; Storr, Carla L; Martins, Silvia S

2016-09-01

Previous studies demonstrate disparities in health and health services including gambling disorders (GD) among ethnic and racial minority groups. In this review, we summarize studies examining the prevalence of GD across different ethnic and racial minorities. We describe the sociodemographic subgroup variations at heightened risk for GD and factors associated with GD in racial and ethnic minority groups including gambling availability, comorbid substance use, psychiatric conditions, stress, acculturation, and differences in cultural values and cognitions. We found that research of GD among minority groups is scant, and the prevalence of GD among these groups is at a magnitude of concern. Racial and ethnic minority status in it of itself is not a risk factor for GD but may be a proxy for underlying potential risk factors. The need for prevention and treatment programs for different cultural group remains unmet.

Tracking of clustered cardiovascular disease risk factors from childhood to adolescence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bugge, Anna; El-Naaman, Bianca; McMurray, Robert G

2013-01-01

samples were analyzed for CVD risk factors. A clustered risk-score (z-score) was constructed by adding sex-specific z-scores for blood pressure, homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR), triglyceride, skinfolds and negative values of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) and VO(2peak...

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

2009-01-01

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

2009-07-15

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Diabetes mellitus defined by hemoglobin A1c value: Risk characterization for incidence among Japanese subjects in the JPHC Diabetes Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yoshihiko; Matsushita, Yumi; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Inoue, Manami; Kadowaki, Takashi; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Noda, Mitsuhiko

2011-10-07

Aims/Introduction:  Although several risk factors for type 2 diabetes have been identified, most of them have been identified in studies on Western populations, and they should be evaluated in a Japanese population. In 2010, new diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus using hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were released and its use in epidemiological studies has many advantages. The aim of the present study was to evaluate risk factors for type 2 diabetes defined based on HbA1c values in a Japanese population.   A total of 9223 subjects (3076 men and 6147 women) were followed up for 5 years. Diabetes was defined based on self-report or HbA1c value. Risk factors for diabetes were evaluated as odds ratios adjusted for potential confounding factors by logistic regression.   During the 5-year follow-up period, we documented 518 incident cases of diabetes (232 men and 286 women). Of the 518 incident cases, 310 cases were diagnosed by HbA1c alone. Among the men, age, smoking (both past smoking and current smoking) and family history of diabetes significantly increased the risk of diabetes. Among the women, body mass index, family history of diabetes and hypertension significantly increased the risk of diabetes. These results did not change markedly after adjustment for the baseline HbA1c values, and the baseline HbA1c value itself was a significant risk factor for diabetes mellitus.   Known risk factors for diabetes established in Western populations also increased the risk of diabetes in a Japanese population defined on the basis of HbA1c values. (J Diabetes Invest, doi: 10.1111/j.2040-1124.2011.00119.x, 2011).

ANTHROPOMETRIC INDICES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CARDIOMETABOLIC RISK FACTORS: FINDINGS OF THE ISFAHAN HEALTHY HEART PROGRAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nizal Sarrafzadegan

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract    BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing worldwide, but the debate about the most valid index associated with its health hazards remains unresolved. This study aimed to compare four main anthropometric indices by gender, to determine the best index in predicting cardiometabolic risk factors and to find their cutoff values in the population studied.    METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional community-based study performed on a representative sample of 12,514 adults (aged ≥19 years selected via 2-stage random cluster sampling from 3 cities in Iran. Partial correlation and ROC curve analyzes were used to determine the best anthropometric indices and their cutoff values.    RESULTS: The study population comprised 6123 males and 6391 females. In both genders, waist circumference (WC had the highest correlation with cardiometabolic risk factors (6 of 8 risk factors in men and 7 of 8 risk factors in women. ROC analyses showed that in males, the largest area under curve (AUC was obtained for waist-to-stature ration (WSR in most risk factors (6 of the 10 followed by body mass index (BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHR with largest AUC (3 of the 10. The corresponding figure for females was obtained for WSR (9 of the 10 followed by BMI and WHR (1 of 10. Optimal cutoff values computed for combination of 3 major risk factors (including diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidemia revealed that in males and females, respectively, the cutoff values were 21.9 and 23.5 kg/m2 for BMI, 80.70 and 84.70 cm for WC, 0.85 and 0.86 for WHR and 0.47 and 0.53 for WSR.    CONCLUSION: WSR could be a valid anthropometric index for predicting cardiometabolic risk factors, and it has less variation than other indices among populations with ethnic differences in body size and fat distribution.      Keywords: Anthropometry, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Iran, Obesity.

Risk factors for nutritional status determination and indications for preventive nutrition therapy in hospitalized gastroenterological patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roganović Branka

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Risk factors for the intrahospital nutritional status worsening (NSW have not been precisely defined in the literature. The objective was defining thoese factors among gastroenterological patients and defining the risk patients requiring a preventive nutritional therapy. Methods. In 650 gastroenterological patients, NSW was evaluated on the basis of reducing of the six parameters: body weight, body mass index (BMI, triceps skinfold thickness (TSF, midupper arm muscle circumference (MAMC, serum albumin level (ALB, and lymphocyte count (LYM. The influence on NSW was tested for 13 factors concerning characteristics of the patient, disease, and diagnostic procedures. Among the factors influencing significantly the NSW, primary and secondary risk factors were selected. After scoring of risk factors had been performed, the risk-score for NSW (RSNSW was defined. The critical value of RSNSW which required preventive nutritional therapy was also calculated. Results. The incidence of NSW was in the range 29.2%−57.9%. The presence of general complications and severe disease activity were considered as primary risk factors, whereas malignant disease, age above 71, hepato-billiary tract involvement, hospitalization longer than 14 days, and mobility worsening were considered as secondary risk factors. The best predictive value for the NSW was proved for the RSNSW ≥ 6. Because of that, preventive nutritional therapy should be indicated in patients presenting with both primary risk factors or in patients presenting with one primary factor combined with three secondary risk factors at least. Conclusion. There are 7 risk factors for NSW in gastroenterological patients, but they are not of the same importance - two primary and five secondary risk factors can be differentiated. Preventive nutritional therapy is indicated only in patients having both primary risk factors or in those presenting with one primary risk factor combined with three

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Cardiovascular risk factors and dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fillit, Howard; Nash, David T; Rundek, Tatjana; Zuckerman, Andrea

2008-06-01

Dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia, are disorders of aging populations and represent a significant economic burden. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be instrumental in the development of dementia. The goal of this review was to discuss the relationship between specific CVD risk factors and dementia and how current treatment strategies for dementia should focus on reducing CVD risks. We conducted a review of the literature for the simultaneous presence of 2 major topics, cardiovascular risk factors and dementia (eg, AD). Special emphasis was placed on clinical outcome studies examining the effects of treatments of pharmacologically modifiable CVD risk factors on dementia and cognitive impairment. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD, such as obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and certain psychosocial factors, have been associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Some evidence suggests that effectively managing these factors may prevent cognitive decline/dementia. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of antihypertensive medications have found that such therapy may reduce the risk of cognitive decline, and limited data suggest a benefit for patients with AD. Some small open-label and randomized clinical trials of statins have observed positive effects on cognitive function; larger studies of statins in patients with AD are ongoing. Although more research is needed, current evidence indicates an association between CVD risk factors--such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus--and cognitive decline/dementia. From a clinical perspective, these data further support the rationale for physicians to provide effective management of CVD risk factors and for patients to be compliant with such recommendations to possibly prevent cognitive decline/dementia.

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

Geographical Detector-Based Risk Factors Assessment of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in China

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, J.

2017-12-01

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) is a common infectious disease, causing thousands of deaths among children in China. This study focused on analyzing the impacts of different populations and different industry structures on HFMD incidence in China. Methods: We collected HFMD cases from 2307 counties during May 2008 in China. The potential risk factors included: monthly mean temperature, monthly mean relative humidity, monthly precipitation, different population density, different industry structures. Geographical detector technique was used to analyze the main and interactive effect of potential risk factors on HFMD incidence. Result: Using risk detector, we found the most serious HFMD incidence mainly located in the Yangtze River delta and the Pearl River delta. When the temperature was high, the incidence of HFMD was also high. This finding indicates that there is a correlation between monthly mean temperature and the incidence of HFMD. Similar analysis was undertaken to analyze the correlation between other variables and the incidence of HFMD using the risk detector. Using factor detector, we found the effect of risk factors on the incidence of HFMD, and this was ranked by PD value as follows: density of children aged 0-9 years (0.25) > tertiary industry (0.23) > GDP (0.20) >middle school student density (0.13) > relative humidity (0.12) >average temperature (0.11) >first industry (0.05). Using ecological detector, we found that child density, tertiary industry, and GDP had a strong effect on the incidence of HFMD. Using interactive detector, we found that the interactive PD value of tertiary industry and child population density was 0.42, which of GDP and tertiary industry was 0.34, that of child population density and GDP was 0.35, and that of average temperature and relative humidity was 0.28. All of these interactive PD values appeared to be higher than any PD value of sole risk factors. The combinations of the above-mentioned risk factors

[Bruxism--confirmed and potential risk factors. A systematic review of the literature].

Science.gov (United States)

Kulis, Andreja; Türp, Jens Christoph

2008-01-01

Considering a point prevalence of up to 20% among adults, bruxism is a clinically significant phenomenon. It was the aim of the present work to systematically review the literature published until June 2007 in order to identify contributions on risk factors for bruxism in adults. Prerequisite for consideration were reported measures of risk assessment, such as odds ratios (OR). Seven relevant articles were found. Depending on the value of the OR and the position of the lower limit of the reported confidence interval (CI(LL)), we distinguished four risk groups (A to D). Three variables--severe stress experience; age between 25 and 44 years; age between 45 and 64 years--were grouped into category A (very strong indication for clinically relevant risk factor: OR >2; CI(LL) >2). Five variables fell into category B (strong indication for clinically relevant risk factor: OR >2; 1 1) was composed of 16 variables, while category D (possible indication for risk factor: 1 < OR < or = 2; CI(LL) < or = 1) embraced 11 variables. On the other hand, the presence of occlusal interferences was not a risk factor.

[Classical cardiovascular risk factors: predictive value and treatment of the elderly. The rocky road to evidence-based medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, H P

2001-04-01

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease are still the most common causes of death in Western countries. A number of risk factors have been identified in young and middle-aged adults, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes. Their prevalence and importance, however, are less clear in the elderly. In terms of dyslipedemia it is questionable whether hypercholesterolemia is a definite risk factor. On the other hand, mortality can be reduced by lowering LDL cholesterol, but the benefit in the oldest old is not yet known. Systolic blood pressure rises with age and is discussed controversely as a potential risk factor in the elderly. Some large trials could show a clear relationship between high blood pressure while others did not see any association. Similar to the treatment of hypercholesterolemia, antihypertensive drugs showed beneficial effects in elderly people until the age of 80. But the treatment of the oldest old cannot be recommended in general. Diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are some of the most common diseases in elderly people. They are considered to be an important risk factor until the age of 75. Their role in the oldest old is still under debate. Until now, we do not know anything about possible treatment effects because of the lack of controlled trials. Elderly people seem to have a risk profile different from younger people; especially in extreme ages the predictive role of classical risk factors is unclear. On the other hand, drug treatment could reduce mortality and morbidity in patients with hypercholesterolemia or hypertension. There are no studies which investigated the effects of blood glucose control in the elderly. The collection of sufficient data is a geriatric challange in order to decide whether treatment is useful or not.

Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

2018-03-05

The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

Risk factors for violence in psychosis: systematic review and meta-regression analysis of 110 studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrina Witt

Full Text Available Previous reviews on risk and protective factors for violence in psychosis have produced contrasting findings. There is therefore a need to clarify the direction and strength of association of risk and protective factors for violent outcomes in individuals with psychosis.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using 6 electronic databases (CINAHL, EBSCO, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, PUBMED and Google Scholar. Studies were identified that reported factors associated with violence in adults diagnosed, using DSM or ICD criteria, with schizophrenia and other psychoses. We considered non-English language studies and dissertations. Risk and protective factors were meta-analysed if reported in three or more primary studies. Meta-regression examined sources of heterogeneity. A novel meta-epidemiological approach was used to group similar risk factors into one of 10 domains. Sub-group analyses were then used to investigate whether risk domains differed for studies reporting severe violence (rather than aggression or hostility and studies based in inpatient (rather than outpatient settings.There were 110 eligible studies reporting on 45,533 individuals, 8,439 (18.5% of whom were violent. A total of 39,995 (87.8% were diagnosed with schizophrenia, 209 (0.4% were diagnosed with bipolar disorder, and 5,329 (11.8% were diagnosed with other psychoses. Dynamic (or modifiable risk factors included hostile behaviour, recent drug misuse, non-adherence with psychological therapies (p values<0.001, higher poor impulse control scores, recent substance misuse, recent alcohol misuse (p values<0.01, and non-adherence with medication (p value <0.05. We also examined a number of static factors, the strongest of which were criminal history factors. When restricting outcomes to severe violence, these associations did not change materially. In studies investigating inpatient violence, associations differed in strength but not direction.Certain dynamic risk

Risk Aversion and the Value of Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Eeckhoudt, Louis; Godfroid, Phillippe

2000-01-01

Explains why risk aversion does not always induce a greater information value, but instead may induce a lower information value when increased. Presents a basic model defining the concept of perfect information value and providing a numerical illustration. Includes references. (CMK)

MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Ji-Eun; Jung, Soyoung; Kim, Aeran; Park, Ji-Eun

2018-05-02

Since Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infection was first reported in 2012, many studies have analysed its transmissibility and severity. However, the methodology and results of these studies have varied, and there has been no systematic review of MERS. This study reviews the characteristics and associated risk factors of MERS. We searched international (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane) and Korean databases (DBpia, KISS) for English- or Korean-language articles using the terms "MERS" and "Middle East respiratory syndrome". Only human studies with > 20 participants were analysed to exclude studies with low representation. Epidemiologic studies with information on transmissibility and severity of MERS as well as studies containing MERS risk factors were included. A total of 59 studies were included. Most studies from Saudi Arabia reported higher mortality (22-69.2%) than those from South Korea (20.4%). While the R 0 value in Saudi Arabia was < 1 in all but one study, in South Korea, the R 0 value was 2.5-8.09 in the early stage and decreased to < 1 in the later stage. The incubation period was 4.5-5.2 days in Saudi Arabia and 6-7.8 days in South Korea. Duration from onset was 4-10 days to confirmation, 2.9-5.3 days to hospitalization, 11-17 days to death, and 14-20 days to discharge. Older age and concomitant disease were the most common factors related to MERS infection, severity, and mortality. The transmissibility and severity of MERS differed by outbreak region and patient characteristics. Further studies assessing the risk of MERS should consider these factors.

Risk factors for neoplasms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

1991-06-01

A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

Commercial gambling and values in American society: The social construction of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Abt, V; McGurrin, M C

1992-12-01

Human existence is rooted in the individual's confrontation with risk from birth through death. Factors beyond individual control constantly produce random threats to the individual's welfare. The anxieties created by these events often cannot be resolved by the individual, but require the explanatory support of cultural values and belief systems. These values and belief systems allow a sense that socially managed activities can reduce adverse consequences to the individual in the face of random circumstances. This paper discusses the relationships among public policy, American values, and gambling as a cultural buffer to existential anxieties caused by chance events.

Value focused thinking : An approach to structure company values for asset risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Lei, T.E.; Ligtvoet, A.

2012-01-01

For public and semi public organizations the use of risk assessment matrices is becoming a standard approach for asset management decisions. The risk matrix allows companies to assess the chance and effects of different risks with respect to proposed investment decisions. When the values in the risk

Risk factors of fall in elderly people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dijana Avdić

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Falls are the leading accidental cause of death among elderly people in their homes. Falls and their consequences are the primary reason in 40% of admissions to hospitals for people older than 65 years. The study population consisted of 77 randomly selected patients of both genders older then 65 years. Each patient was tested in his/her home and was completely informed about the methodology and the goals of investigation. Based on the exclusion criteria, three patients were excluded from the study, which means the investigation was conducted on 27 males (35.06% and 50 females (64.94% with the average age being 71.23 ± 5.63 years.For each patient, a specially prepared questionnaire about risk factors was filled in. The sum of affirmative answers represented a relative index of fall risk. All patients were evaluated through Folstein’s Mini-Mental State Examination Test that is suitable for on-sight use in patient’s home. The score value over 20 excludes dementias, delirium, schizophrenia and affective disorders.Considering the values of the risk factor, scores obtained by the questionnaire and MMSE test scores, statistically significant differences were found between males and females (p < 0.005, respectively p < 0.01, “fallers” and “non-fallers” (p < 0.001, respectively p < 0.01, while considering the relation to the way of living (alone or with family, there were no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05.

Multivariate Fréchet copulas and conditional value-at-risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Werner Hürlimann

2004-01-01

is similar but not identical to the convex family of Fréchet. It is shown that the distribution and stop-loss transform of dependent sums from this multivariate family can be evaluated using explicit integral formulas, and that these dependent sums are bounded in convex order between the corresponding independent and comonotone sums. The model is applied to the evaluation of the economic risk capital for a portfolio of risks using conditional value-at-risk measures. A multivariate conditional value-at-risk vector measure is considered. Its components coincide for the constructed multivariate copula with the conditional value-at-risk measures of the risk components of the portfolio. This yields a “fair” risk allocation in the sense that each risk component becomes allocated to its coherent conditional value-at-risk.

Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobias, J H; Hutchinson, A P; Hunt, L P; McCloskey, E V; Stone, M D; Martin, J C; Thompson, P W; Palferman, T G; Bhalla, A K

2007-01-01

subgroup of 13 patients with two or more VFs, which revealed that in this instance, the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance were associated with the presence of multiple VFs (P=0.022 and 0.026, respectively). Moreover, the predictive value as reflected by the ROC curve area was improved: 0.80 (BMD), 0.88 (the four most predictive clinical risk factors consisting of the height loss, past NVF, Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance) and 0.91 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Evaluation of additional risk factors from detailed one-to-one assessment does not improve the predictive value of risk factors for one or more prevalent vertebral deformities in postmenopausal women. However, the use of factors such as the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance may be helpful in identifying postmenopausal women at high risk of multiple prevalent VFs.

School as a risk factor for psychoactive substance use by middle school students

Science.gov (United States)

Okulicz-Kozaryn, Katarzyna

2010-01-01

For the majority of Polish students school is a source of negative experiences and therefore may increase the risk of adolescent problem behaviors. The results of the study conducted in Warsaw middle schools (N=2244, 54% girls) indicated that changes for worse (between 7 and 8 grade) in students' behavior increase the risk of drug use. However, changes for better in students' perception of school value and school achievements are risk factors, too (even when family and peer risk factors are controlled). PMID:21152104

Risk factor management: antiatherogenic therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel

2009-08-01

Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.

Risk Factors for Hepatitis B and C among Military Recruits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azam, N.; Azam, N.; Javed, K.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To determine significant risk factors for hepatitis B and C in young military recruits testing positive during pre enrollment screening. Study Design: Case control analytical study. Material and Method: Healthy male recruits during June-December 2005 at Pathology Laboratory, CMH Malir Cantt. Results: The analysis of risk factors among cases and controls has been categorized into two groups according to source of risk. History of previous therapeutic injection administration during the past 5 years, blood donation and sharing toothbrushes and razors in family revealed results which were significant with p-value of 0.002, 0.007 and 0.001 respectively. None of the other risk factors assessed in the comparable groups were found to be significant. Other factors considered plausible by other studies for transmission of hepatitis B and C viruses; like tattooing, ever lived in hostel and injection drug abuse showed OR < 1, this suggested insufficient sample size and frame before any suggestion of direction of association. Conclusion: History of injections for therapeutic purposes, blood donation and sharing toothbrushes and razors among family members were the factors which were significant amongst cases. (author)

Event-based historical value-at-risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

2012-01-01

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Harlak

2010-01-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE: Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD: Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS: Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001. With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001, body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible.

Risk factors in school shootings.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J

2000-01-01

Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

A cross-sectional study of sarcopenia in Japanese men and women: reference values and association with cardiovascular risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanada, K; Miyachi, M; Tanimoto, M; Yamamoto, K; Murakami, H; Okumura, S; Gando, Y; Suzuki, K; Tabata, I; Higuchi, M

2010-09-01

In this study of Japanese men and women, we determine reference values for sarcopenia and test the hypothesis that sarcopenia is associated with risk factors for cardiovascular disease, independent of waist circumference. A total of 1,488 Japanese men and women aged 18-85 years participated in this study. Appendicular muscle mass (AMM) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Reference values for classes 1 and 2 sarcopenia (skeletal muscle index: AMM/height2, kg m-2) in each sex were defined as values one and two standard deviations below the sex-specific means of reference values obtained in this study from young adults aged 18-40 years. The reference values for class 1 and class 2 sarcopenia were 7.77 and 6.87 kg m-2 in men and 6.12 and 5.46 kg m-2 in women. In subjects both with class 1 and class 2 sarcopenia, body mass index and % body fat were significantly lower than in normal subjects. Despite whole-blood glycohaemoglobin A1c in men with class 1 sarcopenia was significantly higher than in normal subjects, and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity in women both with class 1 and class 2 sarcopenia were significantly higher than in normal subjects, using one-way ANCOVA with adjustment for the covariate of waist circumference. Although sarcopenia is associated with thin body mass, it is associated with more glycation of serum proteins in men and with greater arterial stiffness in women, independent of waist circumference.

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive values of some atherogenic risk factors in young workers occupationally exposed to vinyl chloride and heavy metals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aziza Abdel Azim Saad

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional risk factors do not explain all of the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD events. Human susceptibility to atherosclerosis and consequently coronary heart disease is maximally exhibited when the environment is unfavorable, especially in workplace. Thus, the present work was undertaken to study the relation of lipoprotein (a to the other atherogenic risk factors in young workers occupationally exposed to vinyl chloride or some heavy metals by studying the effect of exposure to these agents on the lipid profiles, immunological parameters and the antioxidant defense enzyme system. The results of this study revealed that, in metalists, the cluster features of dyslipidemia, impairment in antioxidant defense mechanism and high levels of Lp (a, CICs, C3 and C4 represent unfortunate events on their cardiovascular system. In VCW, vinyl chloride metabolites caused severe oxidative stress reflected by impairment in the antioxidant defense accompanied by propagation of lipid peroxidation. Additionally, the elevated levels of Lp (a, CICs, C3 and C4 may point out to their role as atherogenic risk factors in those workers. In conclusion, young workers occupationally exposed to VC may be at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease in spite of having normolipidemia.

VALDOR. Values in decisions on risk. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Kjell

1999-12-01

This symposium is devoted to decision-making in controversial projects, specifically the need for transparency in risk assessment and decision processes. It should support the further development of transparent decision processes through contribution and cross-fertilisation between different areas of decision making. The sponsoring organisations of the symposium are all active in radioactive waste management, in which risk assessment is a key function. Traditionally, risk assessment has been the domain solely of experts in the different areas of science and technology. However, as radioactive waste programmes in the various countries proceed toward decisions on, for example, site selection, local communities and members of the public are becoming increasingly involved. We must appreciate that moral and ethical values held by individuals and societies in general are equally important as impersonal factual considerations. This is why the name VALDOR, meaning VALues in Decisions On Risk, has been chosen for the symposium. We may even discover that some of the underlying assumptions in seemingly neutral risk assessments are based on value judgements. It is crucial to have procedures that to the extent possible can identify the factual issues and the value issues in the decision-making process. The controversy surrounding the long-term disposal of radioactive waste provides opportunity for discussing these issues. Such discussions, however, should not be limited to radioactive waste, since the issues are relevant to decision making in modern society in a much broader context. Our hope is therefore that the symposium will draw participants also from other areas where decision-making depends on a multitude of disciplines and values. The ultimate goal will be to look at ways to develop more transparent decision processes in a democratic society. We hope the meeting will lead us in this direction. (48 conference contributions have been separately indexed)

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

2013-01-01

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

2013-07-15

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms

Science.gov (United States)

... » [ pdf, 433 kb ] Order Materials » Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms Risk Factors for a Stroke Stroke prevention is still ... it. Treatment can delay complications that increase the risk of stroke. Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Seek help. ...

Franchise value, ownership structure, and risk at savings institutions

OpenAIRE

Elijah Brewer, III; Marc R. Saidenberg

1996-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between asset risk and franchise values and between asset risk and ownership structure. Stock price data from publicly traded S&L is used to measure portfolio risk and franchise or charter values. The empirical results provide support for the moral hazard hypothesis. The standard deviation of equity returns is negatively related to S&L franchise values, as measured by the market-to-book asset ratio. This research also finds empirical support for models of ...

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on carotid intima–media thickness: sex differences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łoboz-Rudnicka M

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Maria Łoboz-Rudnicka,1 Joanna Jaroch,1 Zbigniew Bociąga,1 Barbara Rzyczkowska,1 Izabella Uchmanowicz,2 Jacek Polański,3 Krzysztof Dudek,4 Andrzej Szuba,5 Krystyna Łoboz-Grudzień2   1Department of Cardiology, T. Marciniak Hospital, 2Public Health Department, Wroclaw Medical University, 3Private Practice, Na Biskupinie, Wroclaw, 4Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Technology, 5Division of Angiology, Wroclaw Medical University, Wroclaw, Poland Background and purpose: There has been growing interest in the sex-related differences in the impact of cardiovascular (CV risk factors on carotid intima–media thickness (CIMT. Therefore, we aimed at examining the influence of CV risk factors on CIMT in men and women and identifying differences between males and females in the risk profiles affecting CIMT. Patients and methods: The study group consisted of 256 patients (mean age 54.7 years, including 134 females (52%, with the following CV risk factors: arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, nicotine addiction, overweight, and obesity. Subjects with the history of any overt CV disease were excluded. CIMT was measured through B-mode ultrasound examination of the right common carotid artery. In the analysis of CIMT values at different ages, the patients were divided into three age groups: 1 <45 years, 2 45–60 years, and 3 >60 years. Regression analysis was used to examine the influence of CV risk factors on CIMT in men and women. Results: CIMT increased with age in both men and women. Women had lower values of CIMT than men (0.54 mm vs 0.60 mm, P=0.011. The analysis in three age subgroups revealed that CIMT values were comparable in men and women in group 1 (0.48 mm vs 0.48 mm, P=0.861, but over the age of 45 years, CIMT values became significantly lower in women compared to men (group 2: 0.51 mm vs 0.63 mm, P=0.005; group 3: 0.63 mm vs 0.72 mm, P=0.020. Significant differences were observed

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

The prognostic value of MRI in determining reinjury risk following acute hamstring injury: a systematic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Heumen, Moniek; Tol, Johannes L.; de Vos, Robert-Jan; Moen, Maarten H.; Weir, Adam; Orchard, John; Reurink, Gustaaf

2017-01-01

A challenge for sports physicians is to estimate the risk of a hamstring re-injury, but the current evidence for MRI variables as a risk factor is unknown. To systematically review the literature on the prognostic value of MRI findings at index injury and/or return to play for acute hamstring

Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury in Severe Rhabdomyolysis

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Eva; Soler, María J.; Rap, Oana; Barrios, Clara; Orfila, María A.; Pascual, Julio

2013-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a life-threatening complication of severe rhabdomyolysis. This study was conducted to assess risk factors for AKI and to develop a risk score for early prediction. Methods Retrospective observational cohort study with a 9-year follow-up, carried out in an acute-care teaching-affiliated hospital. A total of 126 patients with severe rhabdomyolysis defined as serum creatine kinase (CK) > 5,000 IU/L fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for AKI. Based on the values obtained for each variable, a risk score and prognostic probabilities were estimated to establish the risk for developing AKI. Results The incidence of AKI was 58%. Death during hospitalization was significantly higher among patients with AKI, compared to patients without AKI (19.2% vs 3.6%, p = 0.008). The following variables were independently associated with AKI: peak CK (odds ratio [OR] 4.9, 95%CI 1.4-16.8), hypoalbuminemia (rhabdomyolysis may be useful in clinical practice, particularly to implement early preventive measures. PMID:24367578

Perinatal risk factors for strabismus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Torp-Pedersen, Tobias; Boyd, Heather A; Poulsen, Gry

2010-01-01

Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype.......Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype....

Brand value at risk from climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-11-15

This report focuses on how climate change will become more visible as an issue over the next 5 years, from extreme weather events, to press coverage of the political debate over issues such as post-2012 international emissions regulation and the need or otherwise for nuclear power. The report stresses that in this context, climate change could become a mainstream consumer issue by 2010. How much this matters to companies will depend upon their sector. The report analyses six sectors in detail: Airlines and Food and Beverages were found to have the highest intangible value at risk (50% and 10% of market value respectively) - interestingly more than Oil and Gas. Results for our other four sectors - Oil and Gas, Retail, Banking and Telecommunications - were much lower at less than 2-3% of market value; however even this small percentage can still equate to several billions of pounds in value in the UK market (FTSE All Share) alone. The analysis has focused on consumer brand value. Other reputational elements at risk include a company's reputation amongst its business customers, staff, suppliers, shareholders and regulators. The findings raise a series of challenging questions. If brand value is at risk from climate change, there is an opportunity for differentiation against competitors. Forward looking companies at least need to assess the risks and issues, to avoid falling behind in such a mainstream consumer issue. Companies also need to understand the response time. How long is the lead time for a supermarket to start offering a local alternative to long-haul fresh vegetables? How does this compare to the time it would take for an airline to replace an ageing fleet stock? In many cases, even though the consumer interest may be several years away, action is needed now. (UK)

Chronic periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome: a case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimoe, Masayuki; Yamamoto, Tadashi; Iwamoto, Yoshihiro; Shiomi, Nobuyuki; Maeda, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Fusanori; Takashiba, Shogo

2011-07-01

Multiple risk factor syndrome is a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity associated epidemiologically with insulin resistance. This report describes the clinical course of a patient suffering from severe periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome, and discusses the association between periodontal infection and systemic health. The patient had a history of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension for over 10 years. At baseline, her hemoglobin A1 c was 8.1%. However, she had no diabetic complications except periodontitis. The IgG antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis FDC 381 and SU63 were elevated above the mean of healthy subjects +2 standard deviations. Intensive periodontal treatment, including periodontal surgery, was performed to reduce periodontal infection and bacteremia. Her systemic and periodontal conditions were evaluated longitudinally for 10 years. Following periodontal treatment, antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis and hemoglobin A1c values were significantly improved. The other clinical data and medication for her systemic condition also remained stable during supportive periodontal therapy. However, she developed myocardial infarction, and showed continuous deterioration of hemoglobin A1 c level and periodontitis. The long-term clustering of risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and periodontitis, are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. Treatment of systemic conditions in combination with comprehensive periodontal treatment is important in management of patients with multiple risk factor syndrome.

on the determination of risk factors associated with the recovery of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DJFLEX

binary logistic regression models is used to identify some risk factors associated with the recovery process. Result ... Consider the stochastic process { Xn, n = 1,2, } with countable finite values. ... are unknown parameters to be estimated.

Improvement of Internal Audit Planning Method through Application of Risk Card by the Indices of Value-Based Management System of Joint-Stock Company

OpenAIRE

Oleksandr Smetanko

2014-01-01

The Article deals with issues of improving methods of planning and carrying out internal audit in conditions of risk-oriented approach to audit according to the indices of value-based management system - VBM (Value Based Management) using the risk card (risk matrix). A risk card (risk matrix) method has been disclosed taking into account risk level of each of the key factors influencing joint-stock company value rates. Recommendations have been given and abstract of working document has been ...

Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

2018-07-01

Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-02-01

Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Haemoparasites of dogs in Makurdi and associated risk factors ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Of the 5 independent variables (risk factors) that were tested (age, breed, sex, location and management) by chi-square test, two had their p-value <0.25 and were subjected to the multilogistic regression model. These two variables were the breed of the dog and the management system. The final logistic model revealed ...

Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula after laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy using stapler closure technique from one single surgeon.

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Tao Xia

Full Text Available Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP is a safe and reliable treatment for tumors in the body and tail of the pancreas. Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF is a common complication of pancreatic surgery. Despite improvement in mortality, the rate of POPF still remains high and unsolved. To identify risk factors for POPF after laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy, clinicopathological variables on 120 patients who underwent LDP with stapler closure were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for POPF. The rate of overall and clinically significant POPF was 30.8% and13.3%, respectively. Higher BMI (≥25kg/m2 (p-value = 0.025 and longer operative time (p-value = 0.021 were associated with overall POPF but not clinically significant POPF. Soft parenchymal texture was significantly associated with both overall (p-value = 0.012 and clinically significant POPF (p-value = 0.000. In multivariable analyses, parenchymal texture (OR, 2.933, P-value = 0.011 and operative time (OR, 1.008, P-value = 0.022 were risk factors for overall POPF. Parenchymal texture was an independent predictive factor for clinically significant POPF (OR, 7.400, P-value = 0.001.

Age, gender and hypertension as major risk factors in development of subclinical atherosclerosis

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Ajla Rahimić Ćatić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Intima-media thickness (IMT measurement of the common carotid artery (CCA is considered as useful indicator of carotid atherosclerosis. Early detection of atherosclerosis and its associated risk factors is important to prevent stroke and heart diseases. The aim of the present study was to investigate which risk factors are better determinants of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured by common carotidartery intima media thickness (CCA-IMT.Methods: A total of 74 subjects were randomly selected in this cross – sectional study. Information on the patient’s medical history and laboratory fi ndings were obtained from their clinical records. Risk factors relevant to this study were age, gender, cigarette smoking status, diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia. Ultrasound scanning of carotid arteries was performed with a 7,5 MHz linear array transducer (GE Voluson730 pro. The highest value of six common carotid artery measurements was taken as the fi nal IMT. Increased CCA-IMT was defi ned when it was > 1 mm.Results: Our data demonstrated higher CCA-IMT values in male patients compared with female patients. Increased CCA-IMT was the most closely related to age (PConclusion: Age, gender and hypertension are the most important risk factors in development of carotid atherosclerosis. Early detection of atherosclerosis among high-risk populations is important in order to prevent stroke and heart diseases, which are leading causes of death worldwide.

An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

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Sonia Benito Muela

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

Using association rule mining to identify risk factors for early childhood caries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivančević, Vladimir; Tušek, Ivan; Tušek, Jasmina; Knežević, Marko; Elheshk, Salaheddin; Luković, Ivan

2015-11-01

Early childhood caries (ECC) is a potentially severe disease affecting children all over the world. The available findings are mostly based on a logistic regression model, but data mining, in particular association rule mining, could be used to extract more information from the same data set. ECC data was collected in a cross-sectional analytical study of the 10% sample of preschool children in the South Bačka area (Vojvodina, Serbia). Association rules were extracted from the data by association rule mining. Risk factors were extracted from the highly ranked association rules. Discovered dominant risk factors include male gender, frequent breastfeeding (with other risk factors), high birth order, language, and low body weight at birth. Low health awareness of parents was significantly associated to ECC only in male children. The discovered risk factors are mostly confirmed by the literature, which corroborates the value of the methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

Risk factors for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infection in burn patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Vickers, Mark L; Dulhunty, Joel M; Ballard, Emma; Chapman, Paul; Muller, Michael; Roberts, Jason A; Cotta, Menino O

2018-05-01

Infection with multidrug-resistant (MDR) Gram-negative organisms leads to poorer outcomes in the critically ill burn patient. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for MDR Gram-negative pathogen infection in critically ill burn patients admitted to a major tertiary referral intensive care unit (ICU) in Australia. A retrospective case-control study of all adult burn patients admitted over a 7-year period was conducted. Twenty-one cases that cultured an MDR Gram-negative organism were matched with 21 controls of similar age, gender, burn size and ICU stay. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to individually assess risk factors after adjusting for Acute Burn Severity Index. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were reported. P-values negative infection included superficial partial thickness burn size (OR: 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.16; P-value: 0.034), prior meropenem exposure (OR: 10.39; 95% CI: 0.96-112.00; P-value: 0.054), Gram-negative colonization on admission (OR: 9.23; 95% CI: 0.65-130.15; P-value: 0.10) and escharotomy (OR: 2.66; 95% CI: 0.52-13.65; P-value: 0.24). For cases, mean age was 41 (SD: 13) years, mean total body surface area burned was 47% (SD: 18) and mean days in ICU until MDR specimen collection was 17 (SD: 10) days. Prior meropenem exposure, Gram-negative colonization on admission, escharotomy and superficial partial thickness burn size may be potentially important factors for increasing the risk of MDR Gram-negative infection in the critically ill burn patient. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Risk factors for blood transfusion in patients undergoing high-order Cesarean delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegelman, Jessica; Mourad, Mirella; Melka, Stephanie; Gupta, Simi; Lam-Rachlin, Jennifer; Rebarber, Andrei; Saltzman, Daniel H; Fox, Nathan S

2017-11-01

The objective was to identify risk factors associated with blood transfusion in patients undergoing high-order Cesarean delivery (CD). This was a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing third or more CD by a single maternal-fetal medicine practice between 2005 and 2016. We compared risk factors between women who did and did not receive a red blood cell transfusion during the operation or before discharge. Repeat analysis was performed after excluding women with placenta previa. A total of 514 patients were included, 18 of whom (3.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2%-5.5%) received a blood transfusion. Placenta previa was the most significant risk factor for transfusion (61.1% of patients who received a transfusion vs. 1% of patients who did not; p blood transfusion. After women who had placenta previa were excluded, the incidence of blood transfusion was seven of 498 (1.4%; 95% CI, 0.7%-2.9%). Risk factors significantly associated with blood transfusion in the absence of previa were prophylactic anticoagulation during pregnancy and having labored. The incidence of transfusion in patients with no placenta previa, no anticoagulation, and no labor was 0.7% (95% CI, 0.3%-2.1%). Placenta previa was the most predictive risk factor for transfusion with a positive predictive value of 68.8% and a negative predictive value of 98.4%. In patients undergoing a third or more CD, only placenta previa, prophylactic anticoagulation during pregnancy, and having labored are independently associated with requiring a blood transfusion. These data can be used to guide physician ordering of prepared blood products preoperatively. © 2017 AABB.

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Amer, Tahani R.

2011-01-01

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2014-01-01

Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2014-08-01

Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for postoperative complications in robotic general surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Fantola, Giovanni; Brunaud, Laurent; Nguyen-Thi, Phi-Linh; Germain, Adeline; Ayav, Ahmet; Bresler, Laurent

2017-03-01

The feasibility and safety of robotically assisted procedures in general surgery have been reported from various groups worldwide. Because postoperative complications may lead to longer hospital stays and higher costs overall, analysis of risk factors for postoperative surgical complications in this subset of patients is clinically relevant. The goal of this study was to identify risk factors for postoperative morbidity after robotic surgical procedures in general surgery. We performed an observational monocentric retrospective study. All consecutive robotic surgical procedures from November 2001 to December 2013 were included. One thousand consecutive general surgery patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean overall postoperative morbidity and major postoperative morbidity (Clavien >III) rates were 20.4 and 6 %, respectively. This included a conversion rate of 4.4 %, reoperation rate of 4.5 %, and mortality rate of 0.2 %. Multivariate analysis showed that ASA score >3 [OR 1.7; 95 % CI (1.2-2.4)], hematocrit value surgery [OR 1.5; 95 % CI (1-2)], advanced dissection [OR 5.8; 95 % CI (3.1-10.6)], and multiquadrant surgery [OR 2.5; 95 % CI (1.7-3.8)] remained independent risk factors for overall postoperative morbidity. It also showed that advanced dissection [OR 4.4; 95 % CI (1.9-9.6)] and multiquadrant surgery [OR 4.4; 95 % CI (2.3-8.5)] remained independent risk factors for major postoperative morbidity (Clavien >III). This study identifies independent risk factors for postoperative overall and major morbidity in robotic general surgery. Because these factors independently impacted postoperative complications, we believe they could be taken into account in future studies comparing conventional versus robot-assisted laparoscopic procedures in general surgery.

Risk factors and precautions of inpatient suicide from the perspective of nurses: A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, De-ying; Huang, Di; Xiong, Yu; Lu, Cai-hong; Han, Yan-hong; Ding, Xiao-ping; Wang, Shu-jie; Liu, Yi-lan

2015-04-01

The risk factors and precautions of inpatient suicide were explored. Thirty suicide victims were drawn from the adverse event reports of suicidal act during hospitalization in a general hospital from 2008 to 2014. Data were gathered from the focus group interviews of twelve nurses who had experienced inpatient suicide. The data were analyzed by using analytical technique based on grounded theory, and software QSR NVIVO8 was used to aid the collation of data. Three main themes of risk factors about inpatient suicide emerged from the analysis: individual value, social factors and environmental factors. The individual value was categorized into different groups such as sense of guilt, hopelessness and low self-esteem. Social factors included two aspects of negative life events and social support. Three themes of precautions about inpatient suicide appeared in this study: evaluation, nursing and information exchange. Evaluation was elaborated from both physical and psychological assessments. This finding extends existing work of risk factors and precautions about inpatient suicide and brings new knowledge about the reasons why inpatients commit suicide.

Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High-Frequency Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiyu Huang

2013-06-01

Full Text Available in the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500 returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled at different intraday interval, or directly, through combining high frequency information into one model. We consider subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging methods for the indirect case, and factor models with principal component approach, for both direct and indirect cases. We show that in forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it, using high-frequency information is beneficial, often substantially and particularly so, in forecasting downside risk. Our empirical results show that the averaging methods (subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging, which serve as different ways of forming the ensemble average from using high-frequency intraday information, provide an excellent forecasting performance compared to using just low-frequency daily information.

Modifiable risk factors for increased arterial stiffness in outpatient nephrology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Usama Elewa

Full Text Available Arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. Arterial stiffness increases with age. However, modifiable risk factors such as smoking, BP and salt intake also impact on PWV. The finding of modifiable risk factors may lead to the identification of treatable factors, and, thus, is of interest to practicing nephrologist. We have now studied the prevalence and correlates of arterial stiffness, assessed by PWV, in 191 patients from nephrology outpatient clinics in order to identify modifiable risk factors for arterial stiffness that may in the future guide therapeutic decision-making. PWV was above normal levels for age in 85/191 (44.5% patients. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age, systolic BP, diabetes mellitus, serum uric acid and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy or calcium-containing medication were independent predictors of PWV. A new parameter, Delta above upper limit of normal PWV (Delta PWV was defined to decrease the weight of age on PWV values. Delta PWV was calculated as (measured PWV - (upper limit of the age-adjusted PWV values for the general population. Mean±SD Delta PWV was 0.76±1.60 m/sec. In multivariate analysis, systolic blood pressure, active smoking and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy remained independent predictors of higher delta PWV, while age, urinary potassium and beta blocker therapy were independent predictors of lower delta PWV. In conclusion, arterial stiffness was frequent in nephrology outpatients. Systolic blood pressure, smoking, serum uric acid, calcium-containing medications, potassium metabolism and non-use of beta blockers are modifiable factors associated with increased arterial stiffness in Nephrology outpatients.

Risk factors for myocardial infarction during vacation travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Kop, Willem J; Vingerhoets, Ad; Kruithof, Gert-Jan; Gottdiener, John S

2003-01-01

Medical emergencies occur increasingly outside the usual health care area as a result of increased leisure and professional travel. Acute coronary syndromes are the leading cause of mortality during vacation. Vacation activities include physical and emotional triggers for myocardial infarction (MI). This study examines characteristics of vacation travel as risk factors for MI. Patients diagnosed with MI during vacation abroad (N = 92; age, 59.5 +/- 10.2; 79 men) were recruited through an emergency health insurance organization. Risk indicators for Vacation MI were examined and included: cardiovascular risk factors, psychosocial measures, and specific demands and activities related to vacation (eg, lodging accommodations, unfamiliar destination, mode of transportation, short-term planning). Vacation MI patients were compared with two reference groups: age-matched Vacation Controls with noncardiovascular medical emergencies (N = 67) and Hospital MI Controls, admitted in their usual health care area (N = 30). Vacation MI occurred disproportionately (21.1%) during the first 2 days of vacation. Cardiovascular risk factors were more prevalent among Vacation MI patients than Vacation Controls (p values traveling by car versus other modes of transportation (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.0-6.1) and among patients staying in a tent or mobile home versus hotel (OR = 9.7, CI = 2.0-47.9). Incidence of MI during vacation is highest during the first 2 days of vacation. Vacation activities such as adverse driving conditions and less luxurious accommodations may increase risk for MI. Individuals with known vulnerability for MI may therefore benefit from minimizing physical and emotional challenges specifically related to vacation travel.

Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

RISK FACTORS AND BONE MINERAL DENSITY IN ATHLETES AND NON-ATHLETES

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Saša Bubanj

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Risk factors are important aspects in the treatment of patients with lower bone mineral density (BMD.The objective of this study was to estimate the association between risk factors and BMD status of subjects.Forty subjects - athletes of first sub-sample, were recruited from a football club “Železničar” in Niš, while forty subjects - non-athletes of the second sub-sample, were recruited from the Faculty of Occupational Safety in Niš, totally 80 subjects of masculine sex. BMD was diagnosed by using Dual X-Ray Energy Absorptiometry (DEXA densitometer, in the lumbar region of the spinal column and region of the hip articulation, while the presence of risk factors was evaluated by the One-Minute Osteoporosis Risk Test, ie. questionnaire of the International Osteoporosis Foundation, just before the diagnostics of BMD. All subjects agreed with the terms of research, conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki.Among 80 subjects, in six (1 athlete and 5 non-athletes athletes osteopenia was found in the lumbar region of the spinal column, and in three (non-athletes osteopenia was found in the region of hip articulation. Based on the results of χ2 test, there was the association between the lack of physical activity as a risk factor and osteopenia in the lumbar region of the spinal column (BMDSPINE osteopenia, and between the lack of physical activity as a risk factor and osteopenia in the region of hip articulation (BMDHIP osteopenia, while the association significance between smoking as a risk factor and BMDSPINE osteopenia should be taken with caution, because it is approaching the critical value (p=0.056.Concerning this research, the risk factors had a considerably greater impact on low BMD in non-athletes, compared to athletes, ie., in patients who are smokers and lack physical activity.

Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2009-01-01

Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

Credit Rationing Effects of Credit Value-at-Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.F. Slijkerman; D.J.C. Smant (David); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

2004-01-01

textabstractBanks provide risky loans to firms which have superior information regarding the quality of their projects. Due to asymmetric information the banks face the risk of adverse selection. Credit Value-at-Risk (CVaR) regulation counters the problem of low quality, i.e. high risk, loans and

New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick

2004-01-01

Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

Human Leptospirosis and risk factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanelis Emilia Tabío Henry

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The human leptospirosis is a zoonosis of world distribution, were risk factors exist that have favored the wild and domestic animal propagation and so man. A descpitive investigation was made with the objective of determining the behavior of risk factors in outpatients by human leptospirosis in “Camilo Cienfuegos“ University General Hospital from Sncti Spíritus In the comprised time period betwen december 1 st and 3 st , 2008.The sample of this study was conformed by 54 risk persons that keep inclusion criteria. Some variables were used:age, sex, risk factors and number of ill persons, according to the month. Some patients of masculine sex prevailed (61,9%, group of ages between 15-29 and 45-59 years (27,7%, patients treated since october to december (53,7%, the direct and indirect contact with animals (46,2 %. The risk factors cassually associated to human leptospirosis turned to be: the masculine sex, the contac with animals, the occupational exposition and the inmersion on sources of sweet water.

School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

2006-01-01

Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

METABOLIC AND AUTOIMMUNE RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE (CAD IN HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

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T. A. Khalilulin

2010-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most essential autoimmunity risk factors for development of CAD are increasing level of anticardiolipin antibodies and homocystein. This report presents retrospective analyses of 39 heart transplant recipients with maximal follow up over 16 years. Our results showed that hyperhomocystenemia and high levels of anticardiolipin antibodies play great value in development of CAD. Thus relative risks for development of CAD in presence both high levels of anticardiolipin antibodies and homocysteine are higher, than in traditional nonimmune risk factors. 

Cardiovascular risk factors in men

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gyllenborg, J; Rasmussen, S L; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2001-01-01

Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross-sectional de......Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross...

Risk factor for febrile seizures

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Odalović Dragica

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Febrile seizures are the most frequent neurological disorder in the childhood. According to American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, they have been defined as seizures provoked by high temperature in children aged between 6 months and 5 years, without previous history of afebrile seizures, intracranial infections and other possible causes of seizures. Seizures can be typical and atypical, according to the characteristics. Pathogenesis of this disorder has not been clarified yet, and it is believed to be a combination of genetic factors, high body temperature and brain maturation. The risk factors for recurrence of febrile seizures are: age in which seizures appeared for the first time, epilepsy in the first degree relative, febrile seizures in the first degree relative, frequent diseases with fever and low body temperature on the beginning of seizures. The frequency of recurrent seizures The risk for occurrence of epilepsy in children with simple seizures is about 1-1.5%, which is slightly higher compared to general population, while it increases to 4-15% in patients with complex seizures. However, there is no evidence that therapy prevents occurrence of epilepsy. When the prevention of recurrent seizures is considered, it is necessary to separate simple from complex seizures. The aim of this paper was to analyze the most important risk factors for febrile seizures, and to evaluate their impact on occurrence of recurrent seizures. Our study included 125 children with febrile seizures, aged from 6 months to 5 years. The presence of febrile seizures and epilepsy in the first degree relative has been noted in 22% of children. Typical febrile seizures were observed in 76% of cases, and atypical in 24%. Most patients had only one seizure (73.6%. Children, who had seizure earlier in life, had more frequent recurrences. Both risk factors were present in 25% of patients, while 68% of patients had only one risk factor. For the children with febrile disease

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Filippopulos, Filipp M; Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N

2017-01-01

To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

Hidden Risk Factors for Women

Science.gov (United States)

... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

Computed tomography imaging of early coronary artery lesions in stable individuals with multiple cardiovascular risk factors

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Xi Yang

2015-04-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence, extent, severity, and features of coronary artery lesions in stable patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: Seventy-seven patients with more than 3 cardiovascular risk factors were suspected of having coronary artery disease. Patients with high-risk factors and 39 controls with no risk factors were enrolled in the study. The related risk factors included hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance, dyslipidemia, smoking history, and overweight. The characteristics of coronary lesions were identified and evaluated by 64-slice coronary computed tomography angiography. RESULTS: The incidence of coronary atherosclerosis was higher in the high-risk group than in the no-risk group. The involved branches of the coronary artery, the diffusivity of the lesion, the degree of stenosis, and the nature of the plaques were significantly more severe in the high-risk group compared with the no-risk group (all p < 0.05. CONCLUSION: Among stable individuals with high-risk factors, early coronary artery lesions are common and severe. Computed tomography has promising value for the early screening of coronary lesions.

Association of mallampatti score as a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naqvi, S.U.; Shahab, A.; Zia, S.; Adil, S.O.; Tariq, S.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To determine the association of Mallampatti Score as a risk factor for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Methodology: This is a prospective questionnaire based survey included 103 individuals Results: Mean BMI of patients was 23.83+-6.03 kg/m2. There were 28 (27.2%) overweight and 22 (21.4%) obese patients. High risk on Berlin questionnaire was found in 12 (11.7%) patients. Both Berlin Questionnaire and Epworth questioner showed a negative association with Mallampati; the low risk group of these variables in our study with a p-value of 0.034 and 0.016 respectively i.e they are good for exclusion of OSA if found negative. Comparison of general characteristics with Mallampatti score and snoring showed significant association among patients with >25 years of age (p=0.02), low risk of Berlin score (p=0.034) and normal Epworth Sleep Score (p=0.016). Fifteen (14.5%) of overweight and obese individuals had higher Mallampatti score III and lV but the P-values were not significant (0.283 and 0.386). Conclusion: There is strong association between high Mallampatti score and O.S.A. Therefore we suggest that high mallampatti can be taken as a risk factor / screening tool limitation for O.S.A. (author)

Examination of the use of the expectation value of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The UK regulatory authorities have published guidance on the requirements for authorisation for the disposal of low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The guidance specifies an individual risk target for the post-closure period and requires developers to consider collective radiological impacts. Information on how risks and impacts should be calculated or assessed has not been published. The objective of this project was to identify a suitable approach for making judgements of acceptability in relation to a risk target. The project examined the basis for using the expectation value of risk and investigated what approach the Agency might adopt in judging the acceptability of a dose versus probability profile for a given facility. Regulatory criteria are often expressed as a single number representing a constraint, limit or target. However, calculations or measurements of quantities for comparison with these criteria commonly give rise to distributions rather than single values. The expectation value of a distribution, which is equivalent to the arithmetic average, is one means of summarising a distribution as a single value. The project included general consideration of the mathematical basis of the expectation value of a distribution, with specific reference to the calculation of the expectation value of risk. The disadvantages of using the expectation value were also examined in the project. These include its sensitivity to changes at the high-end of the distribution, the need for an arbitrary integration limit for distributions that cannot be integrated analytically and the fact that risk is calculated as a function of time for each of many sets of events. The concept of risk as a basis for regulatory decision-making is becoming more widespread, particularly in the European Union, as directives such as the Control of Major Accident Hazards become effective. Planning of industrial development and transport systems does take account of risks to

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipp M Filippopulos

Full Text Available To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies.The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking.Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively.Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

Combination of diabetes risk factors and hepatic steatosis in Chinese: the Cardiometabolic Risk in Chinese (CRC Study.

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Jun Liang

Full Text Available Hepatic steatosis has been related to insulin resistance and increased diabetes risk. We assessed whether combination of diabetes risk factors, evaluated by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, was associated with risk of hepatic steatosis in an apparently healthy Chinese population.The study samples were from a community-based health examination survey in central China. In total 1,780 men and women (18-64 y were included in the final analyses. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasonography. We created combination of diabetes risk factors score on basis of age, Body Mass Index, waist circumference, physical activity at least 4 h a week, daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, history of high blood glucose. The total risk score is a simple sum of the individual weights, and values range from 0 to 20.Hepatic steatosis was present 18% in the total population. In multivariate models, the odds ratios of hepatic steatosis were 1.20 (95%CI 1.15-1.25 in men and 1.25 (95%CI 1.14-1.37 in women by each unit increase in the combination of diabetes risk factors score, after adjustment for blood pressure, liver enzymes, plasma lipids, and fasting glucose. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for hepatic steatosis was 0.78 (95%CI 0.76-0.80, 0.76 in men (95%CI 0.74-0.78 and 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.87 in women.Our data suggest that combination of major diabetes risk factors was significantly related to risk of hepatic steatosis in Chinese adults.

Ways to Correct Modified Risk Factors in the Management of Diabetic Foot Syndrome

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О.V. Marchenko

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The article presents modified risk factors that influence the development and clinical course of ulcers of the feet in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM and diabetic foot syndrome (DFS. Most DM patients on admission to hospital for DFS have: prolonged decompensation of DM, lipid metabolism disorders, concomitant cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, hypertension. It was found that the formation of sensorimotor neuropathy in patients with DM is a major risk factor for ulcers of the feet. At the time of ulcer detection, most patients have combination of sensorimotor neuropathy with other risk factors — foot deformity, presence of ulcers and/or amputations in past medical history, macroangiopathy. The presence of infection in the ulcerous defect is a significant risk factor for unfavorable course of DFS. Stable compensation of DM, the target values of blood lipids and blood pressure made it possible to achieve the healing of the ulcer in a shorter period.

Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

1996-01-01

For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

Establishing a value chain for human factors in nuclear power plantcontrol room modernization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Thomas, Kenneth David [Idaho National Laboratory; Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

2015-07-01

Commercial nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) have operated reliably and efficiently for decades. With the life extensions of plants now being planned for operation beyond their original operating licenses, there are opportunities to achieve even greater efficiencies, while maintaining high operational reliabilities, with strategic, risk- and economically-informed, upgrades to plant systems and infrastructure. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program supports the commercial nuclear industry’s modernization efforts through research and development (R&D) activities across many areas to help establish the technical and economic bases for modernization activities. The Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems Technologies pathway is one R&D focus area for the LWRS program, and has researchers at Idaho National Laboratory working with select utility partners to use human factors and instrumentation and controls R&D to help modernize the plant’s main control room. However, some in the nuclear industry have not been as enthusiastic about using human factors R&D to inform life extension decision making. Part of the reason for this may stem from uncertainty decision-makers have regarding how human factors fits into the value chain for nuclear power plant control room modernization. This paper reviews past work that has attempted to demonstrate the value of human factors, and then describes the value chain concept, how it applies to control room modernization, and then makes a case for how and why human factors is an essential link in the modernization value chain.

On a true value of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozin, Igor

2018-01-01

The paper suggests looking on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It is argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the topic...... intervals, the use of Byes rule, models of complete ignorance, hierarchical models of uncertainty, assignment of probabilities over possibility space and interpretation of derived probabilistic measures. Behavioural implications of favouring the either view are also briefly described....

RISK AND FIRM VALUE IN EUROPEAN COMPANIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

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Claudiu Botoc

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent uncertainties in financial markets and several company bankruptcies reinforce the relationship between risk and return as a cornerstone in corporate finance. Enterprise risk management theories offer unambiguous predictions about the relation between firm value and risk. The main aim of the paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the risk as a driver for company value creation process for European developed countries over the period 2001-2011. Using dynamic panel data model with two-step GMM-SYS method and enterprise multiple as a new approach to measure for firm value the results suggest that firm value is negatively related with risk, which is consistent with Bowman’s risk and return paradox. The negative relation between firm value and risk is robust through alternative measures, but it does not hold for companies from civil law countries. Additional control variables included in the model are significant and suggest that both growth and capital structure are negatively related with firm value.

Age as a risk factor for suicide

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Kocić Sanja S.

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. World Health Organization (WHO in its plan for health policy until the year 2010, has taken reduction of risk factors of suicide as its 12th aim. Because of the fact that the problem of suicide is also significant health problem in our society, the aim of this study was to examine the influence of life period as a risk factor for suicide in the area of the town of Kragujevac. Methods. In total 211 persons, both sexes, aged between 17 and 91 years, from the area of the town of Kragujevac, who had been committed a suicide during the period from 1996 to 2005, were included in a retrospective study. This study included the analysis of: conditions prior to suicide, locations of suicide, motives for suicide, the ways of committing suicide. For statistical analysis χ2 test and univariante regression model were used. Results. Average rate of suicide, in analyzed period, moved from 8.7 to 27 with a mean value of 14.6± 6.9. Suicide rates were the lowest in the age group from 15 to 24 years and the highest in the age group above 65 years (p < 0.05. Among the presuicidal conditions, within any age groups the presence of mental disease dominated as a factor for suicide, but within the oldest one in which organic diseases prevailed as a factor for suicide (p < 0.05. Statistically significant fact is that a house (flat was the main location for committing suicide in any age groups. Motives for suicide were significantly different within the groups and they were mostly unknown. Committing suicide by hanging was the most frequent way of suicide among any age groups. Univariant regression analysis failed to show any impact of age on the analyzed factors. Conclusion. Because of the fact that an average rate of suicide in elderly increases it is obligatory to primarily determine risk factors for suicide among people more than 65 years of age. Physicians should play the most important role in that.

Examining predictive relationships among consumer values: factors ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Examining predictive relationships among consumer values: factors influencing behavioural intentions in retail purchase in Ghana. ... Journal of Business Research ... effects of age and gender differentials on values among retail consumers.

Population-Attributable Risk Proportion of Clinical Risk Factors for Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Engmann, Natalie J; Golmakani, Marzieh K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Sprague, Brian L; Kerlikowske, Karla

2017-09-01

Many established breast cancer risk factors are used in clinical risk prediction models, although the proportion of breast cancers explained by these factors is unknown. To determine the population-attributable risk proportion (PARP) for breast cancer associated with clinical breast cancer risk factors among premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Case-control study with 1:10 matching on age, year of risk factor assessment, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registry. Risk factor data were collected prospectively from January 1, 1996, through October 31, 2012, from BCSC community-based breast imaging facilities. A total of 18 437 women with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ were enrolled as cases and matched to 184 309 women without breast cancer, with a total of 58 146 premenopausal and 144 600 postmenopausal women enrolled in the study. Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density (heterogeneously or extremely dense vs scattered fibroglandular densities), first-degree family history of breast cancer, body mass index (>25 vs 18.5-25), history of benign breast biopsy, and nulliparity or age at first birth (≥30 years vs breast cancer. Of the 18 437 women with breast cancer, the mean (SD) age was 46.3 (3.7) years among premenopausal women and 61.7 (7.2) years among the postmenopausal women. Overall, 4747 (89.8%) premenopausal and 12 502 (95.1%) postmenopausal women with breast cancer had at least 1 breast cancer risk factor. The combined PARP of all risk factors was 52.7% (95% CI, 49.1%-56.3%) among premenopausal women and 54.7% (95% CI, 46.5%-54.7%) among postmenopausal women. Breast density was the most prevalent risk factor for both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and had the largest effect on the PARP; 39.3% (95% CI, 36.6%-42.0%) of premenopausal and 26.2% (95% CI, 24.4%-28.0%) of postmenopausal breast cancers could potentially be averted if all women with heterogeneously or extremely dense

Industrial risk factors for colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lashner, B.A.; Epstein, S.S.

1990-01-01

Colorectal cancer is the second most common malignancy in the United States, and its incidence rates have sharply increased recently, especially in males. Industrial exposures, both occupational and environmental, are important colorectal cancer risk factors that are generally unrecognized by clinicians. Migration studies have documented that colorectal cancer is strongly associated with environmental risk factors. The causal role of occupational exposures is evidenced by a substantial literature associating specific work practices with increased colorectal cancer risks. Industrially related environmental exposures, including polluted drinking water and ionizing radiation, have also been associated with excess risks. Currently, there is a tendency to attribute colorectal cancer, largely or exclusively, to dietary and other lifestyle factors, thus neglecting these industrially related effects. Concerted efforts are needed to recognize the causal role of industrial risk factors and to encourage government and industry to reduce carcinogenic exposures. Furthermore, cost-effective screening programs for high-risk population groups are critically needed to further reduce deaths from colorectal cancer. 143 references

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Grandl, Paul R.; Youngblood, Alisha D.; Componation, Paul; Gholston, Sampson

2007-01-01

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

The Influence of Cardiac Risk Factor Burden on Cardiac Stress Test Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Schrock, Jon W; Li, Morgan; Orazulike, Chidubem; Emerman, Charles L

2011-06-01

Chest pain is the most common admission diagnosis for observation unit patients. These patients often undergo cardiac stress testing to further risk stratify for coronary artery disease (CAD). The decision of whom to stress is currently based on clinical judgment. We sought to determine the influence of cardiac risk factor burden on cardiac stress test outcome for patients tested from an observation unit, inpatient or outpatient setting. We performed a retrospective observational cohort study for all patients undergoing stress testing in our institution from June 2006 through July 2007. Cardiac risk factors were collected at the time of stress testing. Risk factors were evaluated in a summative fashion using multivariate regression adjusting for age and known coronary artery disease. The model was tested for goodness of fit and collinearity and the c statistic was calculated using the receiver operating curve. A total of 4026 subjects were included for analysis of which 22% had known CAD. The rates of positive outcome were 89 (12.0%), 95 (12.6%), and 343 (16.9%) for the OU, outpatients, and hospitalized patients respectively. While the odds of a positive test outcome increased for additional cardiac risk factors, ROC curve analysis indicates that simply adding the number of risk factors does not add significant diagnostic value. Hospitalized patients were more likely to have a positive stress test, OR 1.41 (1.10 - 1.81). Our study does not support basing the decision to perform a stress test on the number of cardiac risk factors.

Age, gender and hypertension as major risk factors in development of subclinical atherosclerosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ajla Rahimić Ćatić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Intima-media thickness (IMT measurement of the common carotid artery (CCA is considered as useful indicator of carotid atherosclerosis. Early detection of atherosclerosis and its associated risk factors is important to prevent stroke and heart diseases. The aim of the present study was to investigate which risk factors are better determinants of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured by common carotidartery intima media thickness (CCA-IMT.Methods: A total of 74 subjects were randomly selected in this cross – sectional study. Information on the patient’s medical history and laboratory fi ndings were obtained from their clinical records. Risk factors relevant to this study were age, gender, cigarette smoking status, diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia. Ultrasound scanning of carotid arteries was performed with a 7,5 MHz linear array transducer (GE Voluson730 pro. The highest value of six common carotid artery measurements was taken as the fi nal IMT. Increased CCA-IMT was defi ned when it was > 1 mm.Results: Our data demonstrated higher CCA-IMT values in male patients compared with female patients. Increased CCA-IMT was the most closely related to age (P<0.001, followed by systolic blood pressure (P=0.001, diastolic blood pressure (P=0.003 and glucose blood level (P=0.048.Conclusion: Age, gender and hypertension are the most important risk factors in development of carotid atherosclerosis. Early detection of atherosclerosis among high-risk populations is important in order to prevent stroke and heart diseases, which are leading causes of death worldwide.

An information value based analysis of physical and climatic factors affecting dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence

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Tripathi Nitin

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases are the most dreaded worldwide health problems. Although many campaigns against it have been conducted, Dengue Fever (DF and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF are still the major health problems of Thailand. The reported number of dengue incidences in 1998 for the Thailand was 129,954, of which Sukhothai province alone reported alarming number of 682. It was the second largest epidemic outbreak of dengue after 1987. Government arranges the remedial facilities as and when dengue is reported. But, the best way to control is to prevent it from happening. This will be possible only when knowledge about the relationship of DF/DHF with climatic and physio-environmental agents is discovered. This paper explores empirical relationship of climatic factors rainfall, temperature and humidity with the DF/DHF incidences using multivariate regression analysis. Also, a GIS based methodology is proposed in this paper to explore the influence of physio-environmental factors on dengue incidences. Remotely sensed data provided important data about physical environment and have been used for many vector borne diseases. Information Values (IV method was utilised to derive influence of various factors in the quantitative terms. Researchers have not applied this type of analysis for dengue earlier. Sukhothai province was selected for the case study as it had high number of dengue cases in 1998 and also due to its diverse physical setting with variety of land use/land cover types. Results Preliminary results demonstrated that physical factors derived from remotely sensed data could indicate variation in physical risk factors affecting DF/DHF. A composite analysis of these three factors with dengue incidences was carried out using multivariate regression analysis. Three empirical models ER-1, ER-2 and ER-3 were evaluated. It was found that these three factors have significant relation with DF/DHF incidences and can be related to

Environmental risk factors and pressures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klinda, J.; Lieskovska, Z.

1998-01-01

In this chapter the physical risk factors (as radiation [air contamination, contamination of the environment components and food contamination], radon and its radioactive decay products, radioactive wastes, noise), chemical risk factors [chemical substances, xenobiotics in the food chain the ozone depletion], wastes (waste generation, waste management, municipal waste management, import, export and transit of waste) and natural an technological hazards (water quality deterioration as a result of various accidents and fire risk) in the Slovak Republic in 1997 are reviewed

Investment, firm value, and risk for a system operator balancing energy grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dockner, Engelbert J.; Kucsera, Dénes; Rammerstorfer, Margarethe

2013-01-01

With the liberalization of energy markets integrated energy companies have separated into entities that specialize in production and/or transmission of energy. Transmission of energy requires balancing the grid to guarantee system security, which is performed by the (independent) system operator (SO). When the SO faces stochastic demand, grid balancing has sizeable consequences on current and future profits, and hence, on firm value and firm risk. We explore these value and risk consequences with and without an investment option to expand transmission capacity. We show that firm value consists of the value of the transmission capacity in place plus the value of a short put and a short call option that are the result of the SO's balancing actions. Firm risk without investment option is non-linear and determined by the short option positions. It is decreasing with increasing energy demand. The existence of an option to expand transmission capacity increases firm value and firm risk. - Highlights: ► Grid balancing under stochastic demand affect current and future revenues, and firm value and firm risk. ► Balancing firm value consists of the value of the transmission capacity plus the value of a short strangle. ► Firm risk without investment option is determined by the short strangle and decreasing with increasing energy demand. ► The existence of an expansion option implies that transmission capacity increases firm value and firm risk

Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Petrova

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

Effects of Light Intensity Activity on CVD Risk Factors: A Systematic Review of Intervention Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romeo B. Batacan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The effects of light intensity physical activity (LIPA on cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors remain to be established. This review summarizes the effects of LIPA on CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in adults. A systematic search of four electronic databases (PubMed, Academic Search Complete, SPORTDiscus, and CINAHL examining LIPA and CVD risk factors (body composition, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, glycosylated hemoglobin, and lipid profile and CVD-related markers (maximal oxygen uptake, heart rate, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 published between 1970 and 2015 was performed on 15 March 2015. A total of 33 intervention studies examining the effect of LIPA on CVD risk factors and markers were included in this review. Results indicated that LIPA did not improve CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in healthy individuals. LIPA was found to improve systolic and diastolic blood pressure in physically inactive populations with a medical condition. Reviewed studies show little support for the role of LIPA to reduce CVD risk factors. Many of the included studies were of low to fair study quality and used low doses of LIPA. Further studies are needed to establish the value of LIPA in reducing CVD risk.

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rho, Mi Jung; Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Jung, Dong Jin; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

2017-12-27

Background : Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods : Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results : The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions : These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.

2009-01-01

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

The Earnings/Price Risk Factor in Capital Asset Pricing Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Falcão Noda

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article integrates the ideas from two major lines of research on cost of equity and asset pricing: multi-factor models and ex ante accounting models. The earnings/price ratio is used as a proxy for the ex ante cost of equity, in order to explain realized returns of Brazilian companies within the period from 1995 to 2013. The initial finding was that stocks with high (low earnings/price ratios have higher (lower risk-adjusted realized returns, already controlled by the capital asset pricing model's beta. The results show that selecting stocks based on high earnings/price ratios has led to significantly higher risk-adjusted returns in the Brazilian market, with average abnormal returns close to 1.3% per month. We design asset pricing models including an earnings/price risk factor, i.e. high earnings minus low earnings, based on the Fama and French three-factor model. We conclude that such a risk factor is significant to explain returns on portfolios, even when controlled by size and market/book ratios. Models including the high earnings minus low earnings risk factor were better to explain stock returns in Brazil when compared to the capital asset pricing model and to the Fama and French three-factor model, having the lowest number of significant intercepts. These findings may be due to the impact of historically high inflation rates, which reduce the information content of book values, thus making the models based on earnings/price ratios better than those based on market/book ratios. Such results are different from those obtained in more developed markets and the superiority of the earnings/price ratio for asset pricing may also exist in other emerging markets.

Valuing a Lifestyle Intervention for Middle Eastern Immigrants at Risk of Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Sanjib; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Siddiqui, Faiza; Bennet, Louise

2018-02-27

Willingness-to-pay (WTP) techniques are increasingly being used in the healthcare sector for assessing the value of interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate WTP and its predictors in a randomized controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention exclusively targeting Middle Eastern immigrants living in Malmö, Sweden, who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. We used the contingent valuation method to evaluate WTP. The questionnaire was designed following the payment-scale approach, and administered at the end of the trial, giving an ex-post perspective. We performed logistic regression and linear regression techniques to identify the factors associated with zero WTP value and positive WTP values. The intervention group had significantly higher average WTP than the control group (216 SEK vs. 127 SEK; p = 0.035; 1 U.S.$ = 8.52 SEK, 2015 price year) per month. The regression models demonstrated that being in the intervention group, acculturation, and self-employment were significant factors associated with positive WTP values. Male participants and lower-educated participants had a significantly higher likelihood of zero WTP. In this era of increased migration, our findings can help policy makers to take informed decisions to implement lifestyle interventions for immigrant populations.

Valuing a Lifestyle Intervention for Middle Eastern Immigrants at Risk of Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjib Saha

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Willingness-to-pay (WTP techniques are increasingly being used in the healthcare sector for assessing the value of interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate WTP and its predictors in a randomized controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention exclusively targeting Middle Eastern immigrants living in Malmö, Sweden, who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. We used the contingent valuation method to evaluate WTP. The questionnaire was designed following the payment-scale approach, and administered at the end of the trial, giving an ex-post perspective. We performed logistic regression and linear regression techniques to identify the factors associated with zero WTP value and positive WTP values. The intervention group had significantly higher average WTP than the control group (216 SEK vs. 127 SEK; p = 0.035; 1 U.S.$ = 8.52 SEK, 2015 price year per month. The regression models demonstrated that being in the intervention group, acculturation, and self-employment were significant factors associated with positive WTP values. Male participants and lower-educated participants had a significantly higher likelihood of zero WTP. In this era of increased migration, our findings can help policy makers to take informed decisions to implement lifestyle interventions for immigrant populations.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors among First Year Medical Students

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Raj Krishna Dangol

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Detection of cardiovascular risk in young age is important to motivate them to modify life styles and seek health care early to lower the chances of acquiring cardiovascular disease in later age. This study was done to assess cardiovascular risk factors among first year medical students. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted throughout September and October 2017 in which all first year medical students from a medical college were assessed for the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. Participants’ demography, family history of illness, anthropometric measurements, and blood reports of lipid profile and fasting glucose were acquired. Data were analyzed with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS-21. Result: There were 99 participants; 55 males and 44 females. One or more risk factors were present in 87 (87.9% participants. Moreover, 67.7% (n = 67 participants had more than one risk factors. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most common (n = 55, 55.6% risk factor followed by elevated triacylglycerol (n = 47, 47.5% and family history of hypertension (n = 45, 45.5%. There was no significant difference in presence of various risk factors between genders. Conclusion: There was higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among first year medical students. Majority of them had more than one risk factors. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most common risk factor. The risk factors were comparable in males and females.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

[Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A

1993-09-01

The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

Social and psychological factors under realization of radiation risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sushko, S.N.; Malenchenko, S.A.

2001-01-01

In the experiments with mice of Af line, irradiated by gamma-radiation with doses of up to 1.0 Gy and subjected to psycho-emotional effect (the model of 'the provoked aggression') have been investigated the processes of tumour formation. The index of cariogenic efficiency of effects is the number of the induced adenomas in lungs. It has been shown that under separate effect of these factors the frequency of adenomas increases. Under the combined effect the additional number of adenomas per mouse is registered, which exceeds theoretically the expected value assuming additivity of effects, the synergism coefficient was 1.57 (for females). It has been marked that the character of tumour reaction on separate and the combined effect of radiation, as well as the stress-factor has sex distinctions. It has been shown that that real assessment of the radiation risk and the development of the measures system on minimization of medical and biological consequences of the accident should take into account not only the radiation factor, but also a psychological one, especially in those cases when realization of the risk of combined effect of radiation and non-radiation factors can manifest synergism

Values, Perceived Risks and Benefits, and Acceptability of Nuclear Energy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Groot, Judith I. M.; Steg, Linda; Poortinga, Wouter

We examined how personal values and perceptions of risks and benefits are associated with the acceptability of nuclear energy (NE). A theoretical model is tested in which beliefs about the risks and benefits of NE mediate the relationship between values and acceptability. The results showed that

Cocoa intake and arterial stiffness in subjects with cardiovascular risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Recio-Rodríguez José

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To analyze the relationship of cocoa intake to central and peripheral blood pressure, arterial stiffness, and carotid intima-media thickness in subjects with some cardiovascular risk factor. Findings Design: A cross-sectional study of 351 subjects (mean age 54.76 years, 62.4% males. Measurements: Intake of cocoa and other foods using a food frequency questionnaire, central and peripheral (ambulatory and office blood pressure, central and peripheral augmentation index, pulse wave velocity, ambulatory arterial stiffness index, carotid intima-media thickness, and ankle-brachial index. Results: Higher pulse wave velocity and greater cardiovascular risk were found in non-cocoa consumers as compared to high consumers (p Conclusions In subjects with some cardiovascular risk factors, cocoa consumption does not imply improvement in the arterial stiffness values. Trial Registration Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT01325064.

Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.

VALDOR 2003. Values in Decisions on Risk. Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersson, Kjell (ed.) [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden)

2003-10-01

Many decisions that may have an impact on human health and the environment are often controversial and are made in value-laden and emotionally charged circumstances. The decision-making context is not only determined by the factual basis provided by the experts, but also by stakeholder pressure groups, extensive media coverage and the value systems of the experts themselves. Value judgements are often embedded in the technical assessments much more than usually appreciated. Risk assessment gives good opportunities to analyse and discuss these problems. It attracts great attention in modern society and requires contributions from a intricate mixture of technical risk assessment, sociology, ethics and political science. This complexity leads to high demands on transparency in order to arrive at high quality decisions, as well as requirements on public insight and participation. This symposium addressed the role of experts, media and and regulators in complex decisions, as well as procedures that can enhance transparency. Special focus was given to biotechnology and nuclear waste management. The problems of risk communication in these areas such as a high degree of complexity, fragmentation in debates, mixing facts and values, mistrust in experts, etc are shared with many other fields. The proceedings comprise 63 contributions, 50 of which have been separately indexed.

VALDOR 2003. Values in Decisions on Risk. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Kjell

2003-10-01

Many decisions that may have an impact on human health and the environment are often controversial and are made in value-laden and emotionally charged circumstances. The decision-making context is not only determined by the factual basis provided by the experts, but also by stakeholder pressure groups, extensive media coverage and the value systems of the experts themselves. Value judgements are often embedded in the technical assessments much more than usually appreciated. Risk assessment gives good opportunities to analyse and discuss these problems. It attracts great attention in modern society and requires contributions from a intricate mixture of technical risk assessment, sociology, ethics and political science. This complexity leads to high demands on transparency in order to arrive at high quality decisions, as well as requirements on public insight and participation. This symposium addressed the role of experts, media and and regulators in complex decisions, as well as procedures that can enhance transparency. Special focus was given to biotechnology and nuclear waste management. The problems of risk communication in these areas such as a high degree of complexity, fragmentation in debates, mixing facts and values, mistrust in experts, etc are shared with many other fields. The proceedings comprise 63 contributions, 50 of which have been separately indexed

Comparison of AB2588 multipathway risk factors for California fossil-fuel power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L.

1997-01-01

Substances released from power plants may travel through various exposure pathways resulting in human health and environmental risks. The stack air emission's primary pathway is inhalation from the ambient air. Multipathway factors (adjustment factors to the inhalation risk) are used to evaluate the importance of non-inhalation pathways (such as ingestion and dermal contact). The multipathway factor for a specific substance is the health risk by all pathways divided by the inhalation health risk for that substance. These factors are compared for fossil fuel power stations that submitted regulatory risk assessments in compliance with California Toxic Hot Spots Act (AB2588). Substances representing the largest contributions to the cancer risk are of primary concern: arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium (+6), formaldehyde, nickel, lead, selenium, and PAHs. Comparisons of the chemical-specific multipathway factors show the impacts of regulatory policy decisions on the estimated health risk for trace substances. As an example, point estimates of the soil mixing depth, varying from 1 cm to 15 cm, relate to the relative importance of the pathway. For the deeper mixing depths, the root-zone uptake by homegrown tomato plants (for assumed consumption rate of 15% for San Diego) may result in high multipathway factors for several trace metals. For shallower mixing depths, soil ingestion may become the dominant non-inhalation pathway. These differences may lead to significantly different risk estimates for similar facilities located at different California locations such as to be under local regulatory authorities. The overall multipathway factor for the total cancer risk is about 2, much smaller than some of the chemical-specific factors. Science-based multipathway analysis should reduce much of the concern that may be due to policy-based decisions on pathway selection and high-value point-estimates of the parameters

Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

Awareness of risk factors for cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada

2015-01-01

Background: Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare...... awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Methods: Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults...... in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors...

5 CFR 847.904 - What are Present Value Factors

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What are Present Value Factors 847.904 Section 847.904 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE... Qualify for an Immediate CSRS or FERS Retirement § 847.904 What are Present Value Factors Present value...

Incidence and Risk Factors of Persistent Hyperparathyroidism After Kidney Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakai, K; Fujii, H; Ishimura, T; Fujisawa, M; Nishi, S

Persistent hyperparathyroidism after kidney transplantation is related to graft function, but pre-transplantation risk factors of persistent hyperparathyroidism have not been evaluated in detail. We enrolled 86 patients who had undergone kidney transplantation between 2008 and 2014. Nine patients showed persistent hyperparathyroidism characterized by the following: 1) serum parathyroid hormone levels >65 pg/mL and serum calcium levels >10.5 mg/dL at 1 year after kidney transplantation; 2) parathyroidectomy after kidney transplantation; and 3) reintroduction of cinacalcet after kidney transplantation. Compared with other patients, these 9 patients had significantly longer duration of dialysis therapy (186 ± 74 mo vs 57 ± 78 mo) and more frequent treatment with cinacalcet during dialysis (89% vs 12%). Multivariate analysis showed that dialysis vintage, calcium phosphate products, and cinacalcet use before kidney transplantation were independent risk factors of persistent hyperparathyroidism after kidney transplantation. A receiver operating characteristic curve showed 72 months as the cutoff value of dialysis vintage and 55 as the cutoff value of calcium phosphate products. In conclusion, dialysis vintage >6 years, calcium phosphate products >55 (mg/dL) 2 , and cinacalcet use before kidney transplantation are strong predictors of persistent hyperparathyroidism. High-risk patients should be evaluated for parathyroid enlargement, and parathyroidectomy must be considered before kidney transplantation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testicular cancer - epidemiology, etiology and risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondrusova, M.; Ondrus, D.

2012-01-01

Testicular cancer is a rare malignancy, that affects 1-2 % of male population. Trends of testicular cancer mortality are stable for a long period of time, even that incidence shows a rapid growth. This paper deals with national trends in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in Slovakia from 1968 to 2007 by using the join-point regression analysis to propose potential changes in health care. The authors noted a statistically significant increase in the values of incidence and improvement in mortality after 1975. Paper also deals with the etiology and risk factors of this malignancy. (author)

Predictive value of pretreatment lymphocyte count in stage II colorectal cancer and in high-risk patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Lei; Zhu, Ji; Jia, Huixun; Huang, Liyong; Li, Dawei; Li, Qingguo; Li, Xinxiang

2016-01-05

Pretreatment lymphocyte count (LC) has been associated with prognosis and chemotherapy response in several cancers. The predictive value of LC for stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) and for high-risk patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) has not been determined. A retrospective review of prospectively collected data from 1332 consecutive stage II CRC patients who underwent curative tumor resection was conducted. A pretreatment LC value risk, 459 (62.2%) of whom received AC. Patients with low LCs had significantly worse 5-year OS (74.6% vs. 90.2%, p risk patients with low LCs had the poorest DFS (p value or combined with high-risk status were both independent prognostic factors(p risk, AC-treated patients with high LCs had significantly longer DFS than untreated patients (HR, 0.594; 95% CI, 0.364-0.970; p = 0.035). There was no difference or trend for DFS or OS in patients with low LCs, regardless of the use of AC (DFS, p = 0.692; OS, p = 0.522). Low LC was also independently associated with poorer DFS in high-risk, AC-treated patients (HR, 1.885; 95% CI, 1.112-3.196; p = 0.019). Pretreatment LC is an independent prognostic factor for survival in stage II CRC. Furthermore, pretreatment LC reliably predicts chemotherapeutic efficacy in high-risk patients with stage II CRC.

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mi Jung Rho

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5 criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138, belief self-control (1.034, anxiety (1.086, pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105, money spent on gaming (1.005, weekday game time (1.081, offline community meeting attendance (2.060, and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors; Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

2017-01-01

Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment. PMID:29280953

The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mladenović Zorica

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

Awareness of ovarian cancer risk factors among women in Malaysia: a preliminary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Keng, Soon Lean; Abdul Wahab, Syakirah Bainun; Chiu, Lim Bee; Yusuf, Azlina

2015-01-01

Ovarian cancer is recognized as the fourth leading cancer in Malaysia. However, women do not always seek help in a timely manner and gaps in awareness may influence screening uptake and presentation. The purpose of this study was to determine levels of awareness of ovarian cancer risk factors in female population in Penang, Malaysia. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Penang, Malaysia from January until February 2014. Eighty-seven women were selected by convenient sampling. Awareness of risk factors of ovarian cancer was assessed using a self-administered questionnaire. Data were analyzed using statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) version 20.0 for descriptive statistics and Pearson chi-square test for the association between socio-demographic data and awareness. A p value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. In all, 74.7% of participants answered correctly for the risk factor of increasing age, although 94.3% were unaware of increased risk of tall women. A majority, 71.3%, had a low level of awareness of ovarian cancer risk factors. There was a significant association between age and knowledge (p=0.047). Additionally, there was a significant association between higher education level and level of awareness of ovarian cancer risk factors (p=0.039). This study revealed that awareness of ovarian cancer risk factors among Malaysian women is low. The results show a need for improved public understanding about ovarian cancer risks and provision of important information for health professionals about initiatives needed for future awareness, prevention and screening programs.

Risk factors for venous thromboembolism during pregnancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Thomas Bo; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Grøn, Randi

2013-01-01

Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated.......Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated....

Dyslipidemia and its risk factors in overweight and obese children and adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Lucía Casavalle

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Obesity and overweight are frequently associated with metabolic complications. Objective: to estimate the prevalence of dyslipidemia in overweight and obese children and adolescents and its risk factors (RF, and the concordance between different cut-off values (Cook et al. vs. American Academy of Cardiology of triglycerides (TG and HDL-C.Material and Methods: 139 patients (aged 8-14 years with overweight or obesity, attending the outpatient Pediatric Clinic, Division of Nutrition, San Martin University Hospital, Buenos Aires, Argentina, from February 2005 to January 2013, were studied. The design was descriptive, observational, prospective, crossover and comparison of independent samples. Dyslipidemia was considered when: Total cholesterol (TC≥200 mg/dl or HDL-C≤40 mg/dl or TG≥110 mg/dl or LDL-C≥130mg/dl. Increased waist circumference (WC≥90th percentile, according Freedman et al., low weight at birth (<2,5 kg., family history of dyslipidemia and acute myocardial infarction (AMI were considered as risk factors. The concordance between the cut-off values of TG (≥110 and ≥150 mg/dl and also of HDL-C (≤40 and <35 mg/dl were analyzed.Results: The prevalence of dyslipidemia was 50,4%; the most abnormal lipid fractions was the TG (31,7% and the most frequently RF was the increased WC (55,4%. The concordance between cut-off values was weak for TG (Kappa index=0.38, and moderate for HDL-C (Kappa index=0,52.Conclusions: The high prevalence of dyslipidemia was similar to other reports. The risk factors for dyslipidemia were the increased WC and family history of dyslipidemia. Due to the degree of concordance for TG and HDL-C it is relevant the cut-off values to be considered.

[Evaluation of occupational risk factors, nutritional habits and nutritional status in industrial workers].

Science.gov (United States)

Domagała-Dobrzycka, M

2000-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between selected risk factors at the workplace and health indices in relation to nutritional habits and nutritional status in industrial workers. Exposure to physical and chemical risk factors and their impact on health in the province of Szczecin and in Poland was evaluated basing on data published in the Yearbooks of the Province of Szczecin, the Central Statistics Bureau (GUS) and Regional Inspectorate of Labor (OIP) in Szczecin. A random selection of plants in Szczecin was done and workplaces with chemical and physical risk levels exceeding the highest acceptable values were identified. Measurements of concentrations of chemicals and intensity of physical factors were performed by Work Environment Research Laboratories of the plants and by the laboratory of the Sanitary and Epidemiological Center in Szczecin. Eighty-eight men exposed to occupational risk factors were randomly selected. The mean period of exposure in that group was approximately ten years. The control group was composed of male workers (n = 83) not exposed to any of the risk factors in question (Tab. 3). Nutritional habits and nutritional status were studied during summer/autumn and winter/spring periods. Dietary survey consisted of the last 24-hour nutrient intake questionnaire. Nutritional status evaluation was based on body mass index (BMI) values and results of the following laboratory tests: blood cell count, levels of total protein, prealbumin, retinol binding protein (RBP), magnesium, inorganic phosphorus, and ascorbic acid. The following results were obtained: 1. Physical factors constituted the most frequent source of occupational risk in the province of Szczecin and in Poland in 1990-1994 (Tab. 1); 2. The incidence of occupational risk and occupational disease morbidity rates in 1990-1994 were lower for the province of Szczecin than the average for Poland; 3. The rate of fatal accidents at work in 1982-1994 was higher for the

Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values-at...

Cardiovascular risk factors in adults 80 years of age or older

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Enrique Ruiz Mori

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In Peru, the 80 years‘ population and older is increasing and cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death. The aim of the study is to analyze the cardiovascular risk factors in octogenarians. Material and methods: It is a descriptive, observational cross prevalence research, conducted in March 2015 in Lima. A questionnaire on cardiovascular risk factors was used; blood pressure, weight, height and body mass index, in people 80 years of age or older was recorded. Results: Were evaluated 969 subjects, of whom 562 (58% were women and 407 (42% were male; with an average age of 84.2 years; predominant age group of 80-84 years 60.5%. 427 cases were hypertensive (44.1%, and was more common in women (62.2%. 9% of the study population (87 cases were smokers; being more common in men (64% (p = 0.000009. They were recorded at 220 subjects (22.7% with hypercholesterolemia, being more common in women (139 patients: 63.2%, without statistical significance. Diabetes was reported in 11.5% of the studied sample (111 patients, it was the most frequently in women (68.5% (p = 0.018. According to BMI values, 537 subjects (55.4% had a BMI <25, while 33.8% of the population (328 were overweight and 10.7% were enrolled with obesity, more prevalent in women (70, 2% (p = 0.028. In the hypertensive population was 87% in drug treatment, of which 65% were controlled. 26.5% (257 cases of the studied population had two risk factors and 13.1% (127 three or more risk factors. Conclusions: The most frequent factor of cardiovascular risk has been Hypertension, predominantly women. 40% of the evaluated subjects had two or more risk factors. 87% of hypertensive patients received drug treatment and 65% of them were controlled.

Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

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Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

Risk Factors of Typhoid Infection in the Indonesian Archipelago.

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Sandra Alba

Full Text Available Knowledge of risk factors and their relative importance in different settings is essential to develop effective health education material for the prevention of typhoid. In this study, we examine the effect of household level and individual behavioural risk factors on the risk of typhoid in three Indonesian islands (Sulawesi, Kalimantan and Papua in the Eastern Indonesian archipelago encompassing rural, peri-urban and urban areas.We enrolled 933 patients above 10 years of age in a health facility-based case-control study between June 2010 and June 2011. Individuals suspected of typhoid were tested using the typhoid IgM lateral flow assay for the serodiagnosis of typhoid fever followed by blood culture testing. Cases and controls were defined post-recruitment: cases were individuals with a culture or serology positive result (n = 449; controls were individuals negative to both serology and culture, with or without a diagnosis other than typhoid (n = 484. Logistic regression was used to examine the effect of household level and individual level behavioural risk factors and we calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF of removing each risk significant independent behavioural risk factor.Washing hands at critical moments of the day and washing hands with soap were strong independent protective factors for typhoid (OR = 0.38 95% CI 0.25 to 0.58 for each unit increase in hand washing frequency score with values between 0 = Never and 3 = Always; OR = 3.16 95% CI = 2.09 to 4.79 comparing washing hands with soap sometimes/never vs. often. These effects were independent of levels of access to water and sanitation. Up to two thirds of cases could be prevented by compliance to these practices (hand washing PAF = 66.8 95% CI 61.4 to 71.5; use of soap PAF = 61.9 95%CI 56.7 to 66.5. Eating food out in food stalls or restaurant was an important risk factor (OR = 6.9 95%CI 4.41 to 10.8 for every unit increase in frequency score.Major gains could

Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

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O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

1998-12-01

A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

OpenAIRE

A Dehghani; M zahedi; M moezzi; M dafei; H Falahzadeh

2016-01-01

Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective ...

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

Risk Factors for Developing Atopic Dermatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

G. Carson, Charlotte

2013-01-01

The aim of this thesis was to investigate possible risk factors affecting the development of AD. AD is a frequent disease among children and has a substantial impact on the lives of both the child and its family. A better understanding of the disease would enable better treatment, prevention...... and information to the families involved. Previous risk factor studies have been hampered by an unsuitable study design and/or difficulties in standardization when diagnosing AD, which limit their conclusions. In paper I, we conducted a traditional cross-sectional analysis testing 40 possible risk factors...... exposure to dog was the only environmental exposure that significantly reduced the disease manifestation, suggesting other, yet unknown environmental factors affecting the increasing prevalence of AD in children. Length at birth was shown to be inversely associated with the risk of later developing AD...

[Pathological gambling: risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Bouju, G; Grall-Bronnec, M; Landreat-Guillou, M; Venisse, J-L

2011-09-01

In France, consumption of gambling games increased by 148% between 1960 and 2005. In 2004, gamblers lost approximately 0.9% of household income, compared to 0.4% in 1960. This represents approximately 134 Euros per year and per head. In spite of this important increase, the level remains lower than the European average (1%). However, gambling practices may continue to escalate in France in the next few years, particularly with the recent announce of the legalisation of online games and sports betting. With the spread of legalised gambling, pathological gambling rates may increase in France in the next years, in response to more widely available and more attractive gambling opportunities. In this context, there is a need for better understanding of the risk factors that are implicated in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. This paper briefly describes the major risk factors for pathological gambling by examining the recent published literature available during the first quarter of 2008. This documentary basis was collected by Inserm for the collective expert report procedure on Gambling (contexts and addictions). Seventy-two articles focusing on risk factors for pathological gambling were considered in this review. Only 47 of them were taken into account for analysis. The selection of these 47 publications was based on the guide on literature analysis established by the French National Agency for Accreditation and Assessment in Health (ANAES, 2000). Some publications from more recent literature have also been added, mostly about Internet gambling. We identify three major types of risk factors implicated in gambling problems: some of them are related to the subject (individual factors), others are related to the object of the addiction, here the gambling activity by itself (structural factors), and the last are related to environment (contextual or situational factors). Thus, the development and maintenance of pathological gambling seems to be

Assessment of risk factors for noncommunicable disease risk factors among men of working age

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M. Yu. Vasilyev

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: the investigation of some modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and poor explored as well of non-convectional diseases among men of working age.Subjects and methods. Seven thousand thirty five men in age of 18 to 60 years were examined. History data included age, gender, nationality,high blood pressure (BP episodes, antihypertensive drugs taking in case of arterial hypertension, smoking. Instrumental examination included BP measurement when seated after 5 minutes of the rest with mean BP calculation. Total cholesterol and creatinine in blood, clearance of creatinine calculation by Cockcroft–Gault formula, microalbuminuria were assayed; depression level was estimated by Beck score. With purpose to analyze the risk factors structure all examined subjects were divided into three groups according to SCORE scale.Results. Cholesterol level analysis revealed the increasing of parameter in 41.7 % of examined patients (n = 307. Microalbuminuria was revealed in 13.8 % (n = 102 of men, and 19.3 % of them (n = 80 had increased blood pressure. Some levels of depression were revealed in 42.5 % (n = 312, among them the arterial hypertension was observed in 62,5 % (n = 195. The group with low and moderate cardiovascular risk consisted of 594 persons (80.8 %. High cardiovascular risk was determined in 15.2 % men of working age (n = 112. Very high cardiovascular risk was revealed in 3.9 % (n = 29 of responders.Conclusion. Increasing of traditional risk factors rate is associated with increasing of additional risk factors. Received data are widening the perception about risk factors structure in population. Particularly the question about renal filtration function role, depressive syndrome, trophologic insufficiency is raised. Consideration of those in prophylaxis system consideration requires a specific education of general practitioners.

Additional prognostic value of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography for coronary risk assessment in primary prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Cournot, Maxime; Taraszkiewicz, Dorota; Cambou, Jean-Pierre; Galinier, Michel; Boccalon, Henri; Hanaire-Broutin, Hélène; Chamontin, Bernard; Carrié, Didier; Ferrières, Jean

2009-11-01

The choice of noninvasive tests used in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases must be based on medical evidence. The aim of this study was to assess the additional prognostic value, over conventional risk factors, of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography, in predicting a first coronary event. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1996 and 2004 (n = 2,709), with follow-up in 2006 (response rate 96.6%). Participants had no history or symptoms of cardiovascular disease and had a standardized physical examination, a cardiac exercise testing, and carotid and femoral ultrasonography at baseline. Incident cases of definite coronary events were recorded during follow-up. Over the Framingham risk score, femoral bruit, positive exercise test, intima-media thickness >0.63 mm, and a femoral plaque provided significant additional information to the prediction model. The addition of the exercise test to the traditional risk factors, then the intima-media thickness and lastly the presence of femoral plaques, produces incremental increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73-0.78, P = .02) and about a 50% increase in the positive predictive value (15.8%-31.4%), with no effect on the negative predictive value (96.4%-96.9%). Physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography provide incremental information on the risk of coronary event in asymptomatic adults. Exercise testing and femoral ultrasonography also improve the accuracy of the risk stratification.

Family structure and risk factors for schizophrenia: case-sibling study

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Lönnqvist Jouko

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several family structure-related factors, such as birth order, family size, parental age, and age differences to siblings, have been suggested as risk factors for schizophrenia. We examined how family-structure-related variables modified the risk of schizophrenia in Finnish families with at least one child with schizophrenia born from 1950 to 1976. Methods We used case-sibling design, a variant of the matched case-control design in the analysis. Patients hospitalized for schizophrenia between 1969 and 1996 were identified from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register, and their families from the Population Register Center. Only families with at least two children (7914 sibships and 21059 individuals were included in the analysis. Conditional logistic regression with sex, birth cohort, maternal schizophrenia status, and several family-related variables as explanatory variables was used in the case-sibling design. The effect of variables with the same value in each sibship was analyzed using ordinary logistic regression. Results Having a sibling who was less than five years older (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.29–1.66, or being the firstborn (first born vs. second born 1.62, 1.87–1.4 predicted an elevated risk, but having siblings who were more than ten years older predicted a lower risk (0.66, 0.56–0.79. Conclusions Several family-structure-related variables were identified as risk factors for schizophrenia. The underlying causative mechanisms are likely to be variable.

Parasite dispersal risk tolerance is mediated by its reproductive value.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Maxcy P; Delaplane, Keith S

2017-10-01

Parasite dispersal theory draws heavily upon epidemiological SIR models in which host status (susceptible (S), infected (I), or recovered (R)) is used to study parasite dispersal evolution. In contrast to these extrinsically host-centric drivers, in this study we focus on an intrinsic driver, the parasite's reproductive value (predicted future offspring) as a regulator of the extent to which the individual will engage in risky dispersal behaviour. As a model system we use the honeybee Apis mellifera and its ectoparasite, the mite Varroa destructor . Mite reproduction happens exclusively inside cells of bee brood, and newly emerged fecund mites may parasitize either a homocolonial brood cell (low risk dispersal) or emigrate to a new bee colony via phoretic attachment to mature forager bees (high risk dispersal). In an empirical bioassay, prepartum mites (high reproductive value) and postpartum mites (low reproductive value) were offered a choice of newly emerged homocolonial worker bees (low risk), homocolonial pollen forager bees (high risk), or heterocolonial pollen foragers (high risk). A preference for newly emerged bees was earlier and more strongly sustained among prepartum mites. This suggests comparatively greater dispersal risk tolerance among postpartum mites with lower reproductive value. A dangerous bid for dispersal may be adaptive if the individual has already successfully reproduced and the rewards for successful dispersal are sufficiently large.

Risk factors for perioperative hyperglycemia in primary hip and knee replacements

Science.gov (United States)

Jämsen, Esa; Nevalainen, Pasi I; Eskelinen, Antti; Kalliovalkama, Jarkko; Moilanen, Teemu

2015-01-01

Background and purpose Background and purpose — Perioperative hyperglycemia has been associated with adverse outcomes in several fields of surgery. In this observational study, we identified factors associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia following hip and knee replacement. Patients and methods Patients and methods — We prospectively monitored changes in glucose following primary hip and knee replacements in 191 patients with osteoarthritis. Possible associations of patient characteristics and operation-related factors with hyperglycemia (defined as glucose > 7.8 mmol/L in 2 consecutive measurements) and severe hyperglycemia (glucose > 10 mmol/L) were analyzed using binary logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, operated joint, and anesthesiological risk score. Results Results — 76 patients (40%) developed hyperglycemia, and 48 of them (25% of the whole cohort) had severe hyperglycemia. Glycemic responses were similar following hip replacement and knee replacement. Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia and severe hyperglycemia, compared to patients with normal glucose metabolism, whereas newly diagnosed diabetes and milder glucose metabolism disorders had no effect. In patients without previously diagnosed diabetes, increased values of preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting glucose on the day of operation were associated with hyperglycemia. Higher anesthesiological risk score—but none of the operation-related factors analyzed—was associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia. Interpretation Interpretation — Perioperative hyperglycemia is common in primary hip and knee replacements. Previously diagnosed diabetes is the strongest risk factor for hyperglycemia. In patients with no history of diabetes, preoperative HbA1c and fasting glucose on the day of operation can be used to stratify the risk of hyperglycemia. PMID:25409255

BMI, total and abdominal fat distribution, and cardiovascular risk factors in school-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Gishti, Olta; Gaillard, Romy; Durmus, Busra; Abrahamse, Marieke; van der Beek, Eline M; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; de Jonge, Layla L; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2015-05-01

More specific total body and abdominal fat mass measures might be stronger associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, than BMI. We examined the independent associations of total and abdominal fat measures with cardiovascular risk factors in school age children. We performed a population-based cohort study among 6,523 children. At the age of 6 y, we measured childhood BMI, and general and abdominal fat mass, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and ultrasound and cardiovascular risk factors. Conditional on BMI, higher fat mass percentage and abdominal fat mass were associated with higher blood pressure, total- and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, insulin and c-peptide levels, but with lower left ventricular mass and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (P values children. Higher childhood adiposity measures were associated with increased odds of cardiovascular risk factors clustering, with the strongest effect for fat mass percentage (odds ratios: 3.01 (95% confidence interval: 2.67, 3.9). Our results suggest that general and abdominal fat measures are associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, independent from BMI. These measures may provide additional information for identification of children with an adverse cardiovascular profile.

Intrinsic Risk Factors of Falls in Elderly

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Yasmin Amatullah

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Falls are common geriatric problems. The risk factors of falls are the intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Studies on falls are scarcely conducted in Indonesia, especially in Bandung. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the intrinsic risk factors of falls among elderly. Methods: A descriptive study was carried out from August to October 2013 at the Geriatric Clinic of Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung. Fifty three participants were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria using consecutive sampling. The determined variables in this study were classification of the risk of falls, demographic profile, history of falls, disease, and medications. After the selection, the participants were tested by Timed up-and-go test (TUGT. Moreover, an interview and analysis of medical records were carried out to discover the risk factors of falls. The collected data were analyzed and presented in the form of percentages shown in tables. Results: From 53 patients, women (35.66% were considered to have higher risk of fall than men (18.34%. The majority of patients (66% with the risk of fall were from the age group 60–74 years. The major diseases suffered by patients were hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes mellitus. Drugs that were widely used were antihypertensive drugs; analgesic and antipyretic drugs and antidiabetic drugs. Conclusions: There are various intrinsic risk factors of falls in elderly and each of the elderly has more than one intrinsic risk factor of falls.

Value of Von Willebrand Factor as a Predictor for Osteoporosis Development in Women with Hypothyroidism

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I.V. Pankiv

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the study of the value of von Willebrand factor as a marker of endothelial dysfunction for osteoporosis development and for prediction of risk of its formation in women with hypothyroidism. Postmenopausal women with hypothyroidism have significant increase of von Willebrand factor at lumbar osteopenia. High concentrations of von Willebrand factor in women with hypothyroidism follows to consider it as a predictor for osteoporosis development. Increased level of С-reactive protein belongs to the unfavorable prognostic signs in relation to the decline of bone mineral density for patients with primary hypothyroidism.

Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

2014-06-01

Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NPAS2 and PER2 are linked to risk factors of the metabolic syndrome

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Aromaa Arpo

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mammalian circadian clocks control multiple physiological events. The principal circadian clock generates seasonal variations in behavior as well. Seasonality elevates the risk for metabolic syndrome, and evidence suggests that disruption of the clockwork can lead to alterations in metabolism. Our aim was to analyze whether circadian clock polymorphisms contribute to seasonal variations in behavior and to the metabolic syndrome. Methods We genotyped 39 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP from 19 genes which were either canonical circadian clock genes or genes related to the circadian clockwork from 517 individuals drawn from a nationwide population-based sample. Associations between these SNPs and seasonality, metabolic syndrome and its risk factors were analyzed using regression analysis. The p-values were corrected for multiple testing. Results Our findings link circadian gene variants to the risk factors of the metabolic syndrome, since Npas2 was associated with hypertension (P-value corrected for multiple testing = 0.0024 and Per2 was associated with high fasting blood glucose (P-value corrected for multiple testing = 0.049. Conclusion Our findings support the view that relevant relationships between circadian clocks and the metabolic syndrome in humans exist.

Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

Cerebral Palsy in Children as a Risk Factor for Malnutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Perenc, Lidia; Przysada, Grzegorz; Trzeciak, Jadwiga

2015-01-01

The main aim of this study was to determine some malnutrition risk factors among children with cerebral palsy (CP). Children with CP often require the assistance of physical therapy centers. Experience suggests that, apart from physical disabilities, this group often suffers from malnutrition. Data were gathered in the hospital among 128 children aged 3-18 years who were suffering from CP. The children were admitted from 2011 to 2013 to the Center for Neurological Physical Therapy for children in the Regional Hospital No. 2. St. Queen Jadwiga in Rzeszow (RORE). Statistical analyses were conducted for data on gender, age, type of CP, motor function level according to Gross Motor Function Classification Scale (GMFCS), body mass index (BMI) and hemoglobin levels in blood. The risk of anemia differs based on gender--the risk is 6 times greater among boys than among girls (p = 0.0398). Risk of malnutrition is 3.5 times higher in children with tetraplegia than in children with diplegia or hemiplegia (p = 0.0043). Higher GMFCS scores are connected to greater proportions of malnourished children (for BMI z-score children with CP, malnourishment risk factors are male gender for anemia and tetraplegia and high GMFCS values. 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, J; Rosthøj, Steen

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Jangö H, Langhoff-Roos J, Rosthøj S, Sakse A. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures: a population-based cohort study. BJOG 2012;00:000-000 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2012.03486.x. Objective  To determine the incidence and risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter...... were used to determine risk factors of recurrent ASR. Main outcome measures  The incidence of recurrent ASR and odds ratios for possible risk factors of recurrent ASR: age, body mass index, grade of ASR, birthweight, head circumference, gestational age, presentation, induction of labour, oxytocin...... augmentation, epidural, episiotomy, vacuum extraction, forceps, shoulder dystocia, delivery interval and year of second delivery. Results  Out of 159 446 women, 7336 (4.6%) experienced an ASR at first delivery, and 521 (7.1%) had a recurrent ASR (OR 5.91). The risk factors of recurrent ASR in the multivariate...

Risk-Cost Estimation of On-Site Wastewater Treatment System Failures Using Extreme Value Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Laura E; Silverstein, JoAnn; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2017-05-01

  Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

Value at Risk as a Diagnostic Tool for Corporates: The Airline Industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried); A.J. Menkveld (Bert)

1999-01-01

textabstractIn recent years the Value at Risk (VaR) concept for measuring downside risk has been widely studied. VaR basically is a summary statistic that quantifies the exposure of an asset or portfolio to market risk, or the risk that a position declines in value with adverse market price changes.

Low-risk factor profile, estrogen levels, and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rod, Naja Hulvej; Hansen, Ase Marie; Nielsen, Jens

2008-01-01

Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI......Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI...

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

Noncoronary Measures Enhance the Predictive Value of Cardiac CT Above Traditional Risk Factors and CAC Score in the General Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Pundt, Noreen; Dykun, Iryna; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Kälsch, Hagen

2016-10-01

volume, and TAC from non-contrast-enhanced cardiac CT improves the prediction of incident hard cardiovascular events above CAC and established risk factors, indicating that quantification of these noncoronary measures may improve the prognostic value of this imaging technology. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical risk factors for neck pain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ariëns, Geertje A M; Van Mechelen, Willem; Bongers, Paulien M.; Bouter, Lex M.; Van Der Wal, Gerrit

2000-01-01

To identify physical risk factors for neck pain, a systematic review of the literature was carried out. Based on methodological quality and study design, 4 levels of evidence were defined to establish the strength of evidence for the relationship between risk factors and neck pain. Altogether, 22

Musculoskeletal Risk Factors in the Young Athlete.

Science.gov (United States)

Moskwa, C A; Nicholas, J A; Goldberg, B

1989-11-01

In brief: Many children and adolescents participate in sports that put them at risk for musculoskeletal injuries. Underlying physical conditions, or risk factors, may predispose them to particular types of sports injuries. Research shows that these risk factors fall into five categories: body type, flexibility, muscle strength, inadequate rehabilitation of a previous injury, and skeletal malalignment and anomalies. Some findings show, for example, that youthful football players who are also heavy have an increased rate of injury, sprains and strains are less common in flexible athletes, and patellar pain or subluxation may be related to a variety of malalignment factors. The authors recommend using a systematic, integrated approach to risk assessment of the athlete, both for detecting risk factors and determining their potential for con tribu ting to a sports injury.

Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent

2017-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

[Identification of risk factors for congenital malformations].

Science.gov (United States)

Canals C, Andrea; Cavada C, Gabriel; Nazer H, Julio

2014-11-01

The relative importance of congenital malformations as a cause of death in the first year of life is increasing along with the control of preventable causes of perinatal mortality. To identify risk factors for congenital malformations. Retrospective case-control study of births registered in the database of The Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), in the period 2001-2010. Birth weight and gestational age were significantly lower in cases than controls, behaving as risk factors and associated with a greater severity of congenital malformations. The risk and severity of congenital malformations increased along with mother's age. Fetal growth retardation, a history of congenital malformations in the family, physical factors and acute illnesses of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy were also significant risk factors for congenital malformations and their severity. The educational level of the mother was a protective factor for congenital malformations and their severity. Variables previously identified as risk factors for congenital malformations, were significantly related with the occurrence of congenital malformations and their severity.

Risk factors affecting survival in heart transplant patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Almenar, L; Cardo, M L; Martínez-Dolz, L; García-Palomar, C; Rueda, J; Zorio, E; Arnau, M A; Osa, A; Palencia, M

2005-11-01

Certain cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to morbidity and mortality in heart transplant (HT) patients. The sum of various risk factors may have a large cumulative negative effect, leading to a substantially worse prognosis and the need to consider whether HT is contraindicated. The objective of this study was to determine whether the risk factors usually available prior to HT result in an excess mortality in our setting that contraindicates transplantation. Consecutive patients who underwent heart transplantation from November 1987 to January 2004 were included. Heart-lung transplants, retransplants, and pediatric transplants were excluded. Of the 384 patients, 89% were men. Mean age was 52 years (range, 12 to 67). Underlying disease included ischemic heart disease (52%), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (36%), valvular disease (8%), and other (4%). Variables considered risk factors were obesity (BMI >25), dyslipidemia, hypertension, prior thoracic surgery, diabetes, and history of ischemic heart disease. Survival curves by number of risk factors using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank for comparison of curves. Overall patient survival at 1, 5, 10, and 13 years was 76%, 68%, 54%, and 47%, respectively. Survival at 10 years, if fewer than two risk factors were present, was 69%; 59% if two or three factors were present; and 37% if more than three associated risk factors were present (P = .04). The presence of certain risk factors in patients undergoing HT resulted in lower survival rates. The combination of various risk factors clearly worsened outcomes. However, we do not believe this should be an absolute contraindication for transplantation.

Valuating the Value and Risk of International Start-up Ventures

OpenAIRE

Ido Kallir; Tamir Agmon

2015-01-01

Fair value depends on an estimate of the both cash flow and risk, which is not an easy task when valuing startup firms. We present a measurement instrument for the future risk of small and risky firms that follows the major propositions in accounting and finance. It differs from other valuation instruments in looking simultaneously at the assets and liabilities. We test the VBB as a measure for value over time by using a database of VC backed innovative companies that oridary DCF valuation fa...

Risk Factors of Leptospirosis in Khuzestan, South West of Iran, 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Alavi

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis as a common zoonotic disease is the widest spread infection worldwide. Human is infected via direct contact with infected animals or through exposure or drinking contaminated water infected by animal urine. Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for leptospira infection in Khuzestan which is expected to be an endemic area for this infection. Patients and Methods: As part of an investigation on rural area in Khuzestan, this comparative study was conducted in the region. Sixty five cases, which were positive for IgM anti-leptospira antibodies, and 215 controls that were negative for IgM antibodies included in the study. A questionnaire including variables related to leptospira exposure was administered. SPSS-16 using Chi square and Fisher exact test were used to compare data. Differences with P-values less than 0.05 were considered as significant. The 95% confidence interval (CI for the odds ratios (OR were calculated. Results: Occupation in rice farm was the most important risk factors (OR: 5.32, 95% CI = 2.71-10.43, P < 0.0001. Other risk factors were as: exposure to rat/rodent in house (OR: 3.53, 95% CI = 1.98-6.29, P < 0.0001, swimming in river or brooks (OR: 4.02, 95% CI = 2.21-7.47, P < 0.0001 and keeping cattle in house (OR: 11.53, 95% CI = 3.50-37.97, P < 0.0001. Conclusions: The main risk factors for this infection in Khuzestan are rice farming and keeping animals (such as cattle as well as contact to rodent in houses. Another frequent risk factor was swimming in river or brooks.

[Risk factors associated to preclampsia].

Science.gov (United States)

López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia

2012-01-01

preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

External risk factors affecting construction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

2017-11-01

Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

Bleeding and asymptomatic overdose in patients under Vitamin K antagonist therapy: Frequency and risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Ben Mbarka

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Vitamin K antagonists are widely used in the treatment and prevention of thromboembolic disease. However, these drugs can cause serious side effects, especially bleeding. This study aims to evaluate frequency and risk factors of both bleeding and asymptomatic overdose in North African patients undergoing Vitamin K antagonist therapy. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study in patients undergoing Vitamin K antagonist therapy. A statistical analysis has been conducted to identify overdose and bleeding risk factors by using chi-square test (p < .05. Results: One hundred and eleven patients were included. We recorded 14 cases of bleeding and 26 cases of asymptomatic overdose. Advanced age, poor adherence, concomitant use of paracetamol and history of previous bleeding are significant risk factors of over-anticoagulation. An INR value over 6 at admission, a high therapeutic target range for INR, concomitant use of acetylsalicylic acid, lack of information on overdose signs and measures to be taken in case of bleeding were identified as risk factors for bleeding. Conclusion: Most of the risk factors identified in our study seem to be related to patients lack of information and education. These results highlight the importance of creating a therapeutic patient education program. Keywords: Vitamin K antagonist, Bleeding, Risk factor, Overdose

Mexican American Parents' Perceptions of Childhood Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

Head, Barbara J.; Barr, Kathleen L.; Baker, Sharon K.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted to identify the norms, values, and perceptions of urban immigrant Mexican American (MA) parents of school children relative to physical activity, healthy eating, and child risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Investigators facilitated five focus groups in an urban elementary school setting and analyzed data using qualitative…

Perceptions of risk factors for road traffic accidents

OpenAIRE

Smith, Andrew; Smith, Hugo

2017-01-01

Research has identified a number of risk factors for road traffic accidents. Some of these require education of drivers and a first step in this process is to assess perceptions of these risk factors to determine the current level of awareness. An online survey examined risk perception with the focus being on driver behavior, risk taking and fatigue. The results showed that drivers’ perceptions of the risk from being fatigued was lower than the perceived risk from the other factors.

Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk

OpenAIRE

Jacobson, Tor; Roszbach, Kasper

1998-01-01

In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted ...

Value of Earth Observation for Risk Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Pearlman, F.; Shapiro, C. D.; Grasso, M.; Pearlman, J.; Adkins, J. E.; Pindilli, E.; Geppi, D.

2017-12-01

Societal benefits flowing from Earth observation are intuitively obvious as we use the information to assess natural hazards (such as storm tracks), water resources (such as flooding and droughts in coastal and riverine systems), ecosystem vitality and other dynamics that impact the health and economic well being of our population. The most powerful confirmation of these benefits would come from quantifying the impact and showing direct quantitative links in the value chain from data to decisions. However, our ability to identify and quantify those benefits is challenging. The impact of geospatial data on these types of decisions is not well characterized and assigning a true value to the observations on a broad scale across disciplines still remains to be done in a systematic way. This presentation provides the outcomes of a workshop held in October 2017 as a side event of the GEO Plenary that addressed research on economic methodologies for quantification of impacts. To achieve practical outputs during the meeting, the workshop focused on the use and value of Earth observations in risk mitigation including: ecosystem impacts, weather events, and other natural and manmade hazards. Case studies on approaches were discussed and will be part of this presentation. The presentation will also include the exchange of lessons learned and a discussion of gaps in the current understanding of the use and value of earth observation information for risk mitigation.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk factors for congenital hydrocephalus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munch, Tina Noergaard; Rasmussen, Marie-Louise Hee; Wohlfahrt, Jan

2014-01-01

. Furthermore, to identify the risk factors unique for isolated CHC as compared to syndromic CHC. METHODS: We established a cohort of all children born in Denmark between 1978 and 2008. Information on CHC and maternal medical diseases were obtained from the National Patient Discharge Register, maternal intake...... increased risk of isolated CHC compared to unexposed children (RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.29) (1.5/1000 born children). Risk factors also found for syndromic CHC were: Male gender, multiples and maternal diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk for isolated CHC in first-born children as well as behavioural......-born children, we observed 1193 cases of isolated CHC (0.062/1000) born children. First-borns had an increased risk of isolated CHC compared to later-borns (1.32 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49) (0.72/1000 born children). First trimester exposure to maternal use of antidepressants was associated with a significantly...

Risk Factors for Homelessness Among US Veterans

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Jack; Rosenheck, Robert A.

2015-01-01

Homelessness among US veterans has been a focus of research for over 3 decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this is the first systematic review to summarize research on risk factors for homelessness among US veterans and to evaluate the evidence for these risk factors. Thirty-one studies published from 1987 to 2014 were divided into 3 categories: more rigorous studies, less rigorous studies, and studies comparing homeless veterans with homeless nonveterans. The strongest and most consistent risk factors were substance use disorders and mental illness, followed by low income and other income-related factors. There was some evidence that social isolation, adverse childhood experiences, and past incarceration were also important risk factors. Veterans, especially those who served since the advent of the all-volunteer force, were at greater risk for homelessness than other adults. Homeless veterans were generally older, better educated, and more likely to be male, married/have been married, and to have health insurance coverage than other homeless adults. More studies simultaneously addressing premilitary, military, and postmilitary risk factors for veteran homelessness are needed. This review identifies substance use disorders, mental illness, and low income as targets for policies and programs in efforts to end homelessness among veterans. PMID:25595171

Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...

COMPLIANCE AS FACTORING BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTROL ASPECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.K. Makarovych

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Indetermination of modern economy conditions and the lack of theoretical knowledge gained by domestic scientists about risk in factoring business actualize the research concerning the methodology and technique of factoring companies’ risk management. The article examines compliance which is the technology innovative for Ukrainian market of factoring risk management technologies. It is determined that the compliance is the risk management process directed to free will correspondence to state, international legislation as well as to the ethics standards accepted in the field of regulated legal relations and to the traditions of business circulation to sustain the necessary regulations and standards of market behaviour, and to consolidate the image of a factoring company. Compliance risks should be understood as the risks of missed profit or losses caused by the conflicts of interests and the discrepancy of employees’ actions to internal and external standard documents. The attention is paid to the control over the compliance. The author singles out 3 kinds of the compliance control such as institutional, operational and the compliance control over the observance of conducting business professional ethics regulations which are necessary for providing of efficient management of factoring business risks. The paper shows the organizing process of factoring business compliance control (by the development of internal standard documents, a compliance program, the foundation of compliance control subdivision, monitoring of the risks cause the choice, made by management entities of a factoring company, of the management methods of risks for their business. The development of new and improvement of existed forms of compliance control organizing process help satisfy users’ information needs and requests of the risk management factoring company department. The suggestions proposed create the grounds for the transformation and improvement of factoring

Sociomedical risk factors for male infecundity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. A. Epanchintseva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Subjects and methods. A total of 917 men from infertile couples with abnormal ejaculate indicators were examined. Their age was 34.1 ± 6.3 years; the infertility period was 4.6 ± 3.9 years. A retrospective analysis of their case histories, clinical examination, questioning to identify risk factors for infertility, and anthropometric measurements of weight and height were made. Weight was rated normal at a body mass index (BMI of ≤ 24.9 kg/m2 ; overweight at 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 , and obesity at ≥ 30 kg/m2 . When identifying infertility risk factors, the investigators kept in mind 24 risk factors at the moment of examination or in the patient histories, which were grouped into 3 clusters: 1 – environmental factors and occupational hazards; 2 – evidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities; 3 – social and quality-of-life factors; this cluster also includes history and examination evidence of tuberculosis, sexually transmitted diseases, and other social diseases, such as hepatitis B and C, or human immunodeficiency infection. Then the men who did not show an exacerbation of somatic diseases, genetic anomalies associated with reproductive disorders, or an exacerbation of social diseases at the moment of examination were selected from the total sample. These were divided into 2 groups: normal weight and obese patients. The frequency of the above mentioned infertility risk factors and additionally the proportion of persons engaged in intellectual or manual labor were calculated in each group.Results and discussion. In the total sample, the frequency of infertility risk factors including occupational hazards and environmental factors was < 20 %; the incidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities was 1–39 %. The highest frequency of risk factors was noted in cluster 3. Among them, alcohol consumption (75 % occupied the first place; next were the rate of sexually transmitted infections (59 %, emotional stress (44 %, and smoking (42

Risk management with regard to the effect of human factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Kiseleva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most important components in today's market is a party decision-making under risk and uncertainty. The first step in making such decisions - to adequately process the information for estimating the future value of assets and the interests of investors probabilities of each particular scenario. The next step is to choose the alternative that has the greatest utility for the investor. Each of these steps is associated with numerous difficulties, the roots of which stem from the specificity of human psychology. The article notes that an integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is being formed-tion, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of “risk” becomes now particularly relevant-ness. The article deals with along with economic forecasts of the risks and the human factor in decision-tions solutions. Along with economic forecasts, the report focuses on psychological problems and attempts to take into account the human factor in decision-making at the forecast of risks arising in the company. The important parameters are the status and position of the person in the society, as well as its social well-being. Analysis Meto-ing risk assessment concluded that the need to develop new models and methods of risk management, taking into account the four-lovecheskogo factor. Economic psychology and its applications have developed into a special branch of economic knowledge - the so-called behavioral economics, which surely develops a wide range of economic issues - from the actual theory of individual behavior to the problems of public choice and the financial economy. The most interesting item is the fact that the concept of “risk” is considered from different points of view - as the economist-mathematician with the position, and a psychologist.

Gambling Risk Groups are Not All the Same: Risk Factors Amongst Sports Bettors.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Alex M T; Hing, Nerilee; Li, En; Vitartas, Peter

2018-03-20

Sports betting is increasing worldwide, with an associated increase in sports betting-related problems. Previous studies have examined risk factors for problem gambling amongst sports bettors and have identified demographic, behavioural, marketing, normative and impulsiveness factors. These studies have generally compared those in problem gambling, or a combination of moderate risk and problem gambling, groups to non-problem gamblers, often due to statistical power issues. However, recent evidence suggests that, at a population level, the bulk of gambling-related harm stems from low risk and moderate risk gamblers, rather than problem gamblers. Thus it is essential to understand the risk factors for each level of gambling-related problems (low risk, moderate risk, problem) separately. The present study used a large sample (N = 1813) to compare each gambling risk group to non-problem gamblers, first using bivariate and then multivariate statistical techniques. A range of demographic, behavioural, marketing, normative and impulsiveness variables were included as possible risk factors. The results indicated that some variables, such as gambling expenditure, number of accounts with different operators, number of different types of promotions used and impulsiveness were significantly higher for all risk groups, while others such as some normative factors, age, gender and particular sports betting variables only applied to those with the highest level of gambling-related problems. The results generally supported findings from previous literature for problem gamblers, and extended these findings to low risk and moderate risk groups. In the future, where statistical power allows, risk factors should be assessed separately for all levels of gambling problems.

[Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Vilain, J; Galliot, A-M; Durand-Roger, J; Leboyer, M; Llorca, P-M; Schürhoff, F; Szöke, A

2013-02-01

Evidence of variations in schizophrenia incidence rates has been found in genetically homogenous populations, depending on changes within time or space of certain environmental characteristics. The consideration of the impact of environmental risk factors in etiopathogenic studies has put the environment in the forefront of research regarding psychotic illnesses. Various environmental factors such as urbanicity, migration, cannabis, childhood traumas, infectious agents, obstetrical complications and psychosocial factors have been associated with the risk of developing schizophrenia. These risk factors can be biological, physical, psychological as well as social and may operate at different times in an individual's life (fetal period, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood). Whilst some of these factors act on an individual level, others act on a populational level, modulating the individual risk. These factors can have a direct action on the development of schizophrenia, or on the other hand act as markers for directly implicated factors that have not yet been identified. This article summarizes the current knowledge on this subject. An extensive literature search was conducted via the search engine Pubmed. Eight risk factors were selected and developed in the following paper: urbanicity (or living in an urban area), cannabis, migration (and ethnic density), obstetrical complications, seasonality of birth, infectious agents (and inflammatory responses), socio-demographic factors and childhood traumas. For each of these factors, we provide information on the importance of the risk, the vulnerability period, hypotheses made on the possible mechanisms behind the factors and the level of proof the current research offers (good, medium, or insufficient) according to the amount, type, quality and concordance of the studies at hand. Some factors, such as cannabis, are "unique" in their influence on the development of schizophrenia since it labels only one risk factor

Risks, values, and decision making surrounding pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyerly, Anne Drapkin; Mitchell, Lisa M; Armstrong, Elizabeth M; Harris, Lisa H; Kukla, Rebecca; Kuppermann, Miriam; Little, Margaret Olivia

2007-04-01

Assessing, communicating, and managing risk are among the most challenging tasks in the practice of medicine and are particularly difficult in the context of pregnancy. We analyze common scenarios in medical decision making around pregnancy, from reproductive health policy and clinical care to research protections. We describe three tendencies in these scenarios: 1) to consider the probabilities of undesirable outcomes alone, in isolation from women's values and social contexts, as determinative of individual clinical decisions and health policy; 2) to regard any risk to the fetus, including incremental risks that would in other contexts be regarded as acceptable, as trumping considerations that may be substantially more important to the wellbeing of the pregnant woman; and 3) to focus on the risks associated with undertaking medical interventions during pregnancy to the exclusion of demonstrable risks to both woman and fetus of failing to intervene. These tendencies in the perception, communication, and management of risk can lead to care that is neither evidence-based nor patient-centered, often to the detriment of both women and infants.

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A.; Evangelou, Evangelos

2017-01-01

factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. Methods: We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD......Objectives: The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk...... met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD...

Decomposing Portfolio Value-at-Risk: A General

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried)

1999-01-01

textabstractAn intensive and still growing body of research focuses on estimating a portfolio’s Value-at-Risk. Depending on both the degree of non-linearity of the instruments comprised in the portfolio and the willingness to make restrictive assumptions on the underlying statistical distributions,

Domestic Violence as a Risk Factor for Attempted Suicide in Married Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Indu, Pankajakshan Vijayanthi; Remadevi, Sivaraman; Vidhukumar, Karunakaran; Shah Navas, Peer Mohammed; Anilkumar, Thekkethayyil Viswanathan; Subha, Nanoo

2017-08-01

High rates of suicide attempts and domestic violence (DV) in women of reproductive age group have been reported from South India, but the association between them was not studied. Hence, this study was undertaken to assess whether DV is a risk factor for attempted suicide in married women of reproductive age group. A hospital-based case-control study with 77 incident cases of attempted suicide in married women of the age group of 18 to 45 years and 153 controls belonging to the same age group, without history of suicide attempt, was undertaken over a period of 6 months. Univariate and multivariate analyses were done. The crude odds ratio (cOR) for DV was found to be 6.15 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [2.95, 12.82], p value = .0001). Other statistically significant risk factors included younger age group (below 30 years); gross family income > Rs. 5,000; higher occupational status of spouse; having poor social support; having a family history of psychiatric disorders, substance use disorders, and suicide/suicide attempt; higher impulsiveness scores; having higher scores of stressful life events over the past 12 months, and alcohol use disorder in husband. Islamic faith was found to be a significant protective factor. On logistic regression, DV was found to be an independent risk factor for attempted suicide in this study population (adjusted OR = 3.79, 95% CI = [1.35, 10.62], p value = .011). Age groups, stressful life events, impulsiveness, and alcohol use disorder in husband were the confounders adjusted for in logistic regression along with other significant risk and protective factors. Significant dose-response relationship was also observed between DV and attempted suicide. In accordance with the stress-diathesis model for suicidal behavior, DV is found to be a stressor which precipitates suicide attempt in those with diathesis like family history of psychiatric disorders. Clinical, research, and policy implications of the findings are discussed.

THE ASSESSMENT OF LIFE STYLE AND THE VISCERAL ADIPOSITY INDEX AS CARDIOMETABOLIC RISK FACTORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sigina R. GÂRGAVU

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The patients with cardiometabolic/ cardiovascular risk are commonly found in clinics and ambulatory clinics. The cardiovascular (CV or cardiometabolic (CM risk factors and biomarkers are certain characteristics of the person without CV disease, which are independently correlated with the subsequent occurrence of CV disease, without necessarily having a causal relationship between factor and disease. The visceral adiposity index (VAI indicates the function of visceral adipose tissue and its growth is independently correlated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate the lifestyle and visceral adiposity index as possible cardiometabolic risk factors in patients with diabetes, prediabetes, and in the general population. Methods. The study was epidemiological, transversal, noninterventional, and was performed by analyzing 300 subjects, divided into three groups: group 1 (100 patients with type 2 diabetes, group 2 (100 pre-diabetic patients, and group 3 (control consisting of 100 individuals randomly recruited without diabetes. Results. The accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors results is an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We found statistically significant differences between the three groups in terms of BMI, CT, VAI, CT, HDL-c and LDL-c values, which were higher in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM than in prediabetics or in the general population, which also coincided with higher cardiovascular risk in these patients. Conclusions. We emphasize the importance of both early cardiovascular risk assessment and the importance of controlling cardiovascular risk factors, both by non-pharmacological methods, and by associating early drug therapy when necessary.

Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P.

1999-01-01

The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument

Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P. [QuantiSci Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

1999-12-01

The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument.

Naturalness, value systems and perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drottz Sjoberg, B.M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: what is natural? And what is Nature? Are perceptions of Nature and naturalness related to perceptions of risk? This paper focuses on these aspects based on results from a Swedish representative sample (N=731), where subjects indicated e.g. the degree of naturalness of various phenomena, their views of nature, and personal life values, as well as perceptions of risk in specified contexts. The results showed a tendency to perceive as natural the phenomenon which is positively valued, i.e. what is natural is also good or desirable. Further, there were weak correlations between perceived naturalness and indicators of technological optimism, possibly indicating that persons with a more generous view of what is natural also more easily might accept change and outcomes due to human intelligence and activity. The construct of 'tampering with nature' has previously been shown to be one good predictor of perceived risk. The respondents also rated their agreement with items aimed to reflect the four 'views of nature' as suggested by Cultural Theory, i.e. nature as robust, capricious, tolerant and fragile. Nature was foremost perceived as fragile, but the main result clearly revealed that peoples' views of nature were complex and most often involved several of the suggested categories. The discussion focuses on the possible implications on environmental concern and risk perception given that Nature would develop into an undesirable type of locality. (author)

Pre and post-natal risk and determination of factors for child obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Trandafir, L M; Temneanu, O R

2016-01-01

Obesity is considered a condition presenting a complex, multi-factorial etiology that implies genetic and non-genetic factors. The way the available information should be efficiently and strategically used in the obesity and overweight prohylaxisprogrammes for children all over the world is still unclear for most of the risk factors. Mothers' pre-conception weight and weight gain during pregnancy are two of the most important prenatal determinants of childhood obesity. Maternal obesity and gestational weight gain are associated with foetal macrosomia and childhood obesity, and this effect extends into adulthood. Obesity and the metabolic syndrome in children originate in intrauterine life. The current obesity epidemic is probably the result of our evolutive inheritance associated with the consumption of highly processed food with an increased calorific value. The determination of risk factors involved in child obesity are: genetic predisposition, diet, sedentary behaviors, socioeconomic position, ethnic origin, microbiota, iatrogenic, endocrine diseases, congenital and acquired hypothalamic defects, usage of medications affecting appetite. However, the vast majority of patients will not have any of these identifiable conditions. Regardless of the aetiology, all the patients should be considered for modifiable lifestyle risk factors and screened for the complications of obesity.

Human Health Toxicity Values in Superfund Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

This memorandum revises the hierarchy of human health toxicity values generally recommended for use inr isk assessments, originally presented in Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I, Part A.

Severe Spontaneous Echo Contrast/Auricolar Thrombosis in "Nonvalvular" AF: Value of Thromboembolic Risk Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Mascioli, Giosuè; Lucca, Elena; Michelotti, Federica; Alioto, Giusy; Santoro, Franco; Belli, Guido; Rota, Cristina; Ornago, Ombretta; Sirianni, Giovanni; Pulcini, Emanuela; Pennesi, Matteo; Savasta, Carlo; Russo, Rosario; Pitì, Antonino

2017-01-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased thromboembolic risk that can be estimated with risk scores and sometimes require oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Despite correct anticoagulation, some patients still develop left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombosis. The value of traditional risk scores (R 2 CHADS 2 , CHADS 2 , and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) in predicting such events remains controversial. The aim of our study was to explore variables linked to severe SEC or atrial thrombosis and evaluate the performance of traditional risk scores in identifying these patients. In order to do this, we retrospectively analyzed 568 patients with nonvalvular nonparoxysmal AF who underwent electrical cardioversion from January 2011 to December 2016 after OAT for a minimum of 4 weeks. A transesophageal echocardiogram was performed in 265 patients for various indications, and 24 exhibited left atrial SEC or thrombosis. Female gender, history of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction 1 mg/dL) of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independently associated with left atrial SEC/thrombosis. A score composed by these factors (denominated HIS [Heart Failure, Inflammation, and female Sex]) showed a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 60% (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.695, P = 0.002) in identifying patients with a positive transesophageal echo; traditional risk scores did not perform as well. In patients with persistent AF and suboptimal anticoagulation, a risk score composed by history of heart failure, high CRP, and female gender identifies patients at high risk of left atrial SEC/thrombosis when its value is >1. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk factors predisposing to congenital heart defects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ul Haq, Faheem; Jalil, Fatima; Hashmi, Saman; Jumani, Maliha Iqbal; Imdad, Aamer; Jabeen, Mehnaz; Hashmi, Javad Tauseef; Irfan, Furqan Bin; Imran, Muhammad; Atiq, Mehnaz

2011-01-01

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with multiple risk factors, consanguinity may be one such significant factor. The role of consanguinity in the etiology of CHD is supported by inbreeding studies, which demonstrate an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance of some congenital heart defects. This study was done to find out the risk factors for CHD. A case-control study was done on pediatric patients at a tertiary care hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, located in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 500 patients, 250 cases and 250 controls were included in the study. Amongst the 250 cases (i.e. those diagnosed with CHD), 122 patients (48.8%) were born of consanguineous marriages while in the controls (i.e. non-CHD) only 72 patients (28.9%) showed a consanguinity amongst parents. On multivariate analysis, consanguinity emerged as an independent risk factor for CHD; adjusted odds ratio 2.59 (95% C. I. 1.73 - 3.87). Other risk factors included low birth weight, maternal co-morbidities, family history of CHD and first born child. On the other hand, medications used by the mother during the index pregnancy, maternal age and gender of the child did not significantly increase the risk of developing CHD. Analyses of our results show that parental consanguinity, family history of CHD, maternal co-morbidities, first born child and low birth weight are independent risk factors for CHD

CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS IN CHILDREN WITH TYPE 1 DIABETES MELLITUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z ABDEYASDAN

2003-12-01

more than the standard values, but the HDL value in the two groups were less than the stanard values. Discussion: On the base of the findings, we can suggest to begin screening and appropriate teaching programs in the field of prevention for cardio vascular risk factors from childhood in our community and all the students must be screened for hypertension periodically.

Banking Firm, Equity and Value at Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Udo Broll

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on the interaction between the solvency probability of a banking firm and the diversification potential of its asset portfolio when determining optimal equity capital. The purpose of this paper is to incorporate value at risk (VaR into the firm-theoretical model of a banking firm facing the risk of asset return. Given the necessity to achieve a confidence level for solvency, we demonstrate that diversification reduces the amount of equity. Notably, the VaR concept excludes a separation of equity policy and asset-liability management.

459 Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

FIRST LADY

2011-01-18

Jan 18, 2011 ... injury. Risk factors may be considered as characteristic indicators ... by examining the cardiovascular risk factors that are related to various forms .... Cross country race, Handball, Jogging, Rope jumping, Running Soccer,.

Vascular access complications and risk factors in hemodialysis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Vascular access complications and risk factors in hemodialysis patients: A single center study. ... Stenosis was the most common risk factor for vascular failure as it occurred in (29%) of patients. ... Other risk factors for dialysis CRBSI include older age, low serum albumin, high BUN and decreasing the duration of dialysis.

Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Imaging in Patients at High Risk Without Symptoms of Coronary Artery Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Dedic, Admir; Ten Kate, Gert-Jan R; Roos, Cornelis J; Neefjes, Lisan A; de Graaf, Michiel A; Spronk, Angela; Delgado, Victoria; van Lennep, Jeanine E Roeters; Moelker, Adriaan; Ouhlous, Mohamed; Scholte, Arthur J H A; Boersma, Eric; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Nieman, Koen; Bax, Jeroen J; de Feijter, Pim J

2016-03-01

At present, traditional risk factors are used to guide cardiovascular management of asymptomatic subjects. Intensified surveillance may be warranted in those identified as high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aims to determine the prognostic value of coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography (CCTA) next to the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in patients at high CVD risk without symptoms suspect for coronary artery disease (CAD). A total of 665 patients at high risk (mean age 56 ± 9 years, 417 men), having at least one important CVD risk factor (diabetes mellitus, familial hypercholesterolemia, peripheral artery disease, or severe hypertension) or a calculated European systematic coronary risk evaluation of >10% were included from outpatient clinics at 2 academic centers. Follow-up was performed for the occurrence of adverse events including all-cause mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or coronary revascularization. During a median follow-up of 3.0 (interquartile range 1.3 to 4.1) years, adverse events occurred in 40 subjects (6.0%). By multivariate analysis, adjusted for age, gender, and CACS, obstructive CAD on CCTA (≥50% luminal stenosis) was a significant predictor of adverse events (hazard ratio 5.9 [CI 1.3 to 26.1]). Addition of CCTA to age, gender, plus CACS, increased the C statistic from 0.81 to 0.84 and resulted in a total net reclassification index of 0.19 (p value and risk reclassification benefit beyond CACS in patients without CAD symptoms but with high risk of developing CVD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factor profile in retinal detachment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azad Raj

1988-01-01

Full Text Available 150 cases of retinal detachment comprising 50 patients each of bilateral retinal detachment, unilateral retinal detachment without any retinal lesions in the fellow eve and unilateral retinal detachment with retinal lesions in the fellow eye were studied and the various associated risk factors were statistically analysed. The findings are discussed in relation to their aetiological and prognostic significance in the different types of retinal detachment. Based on these observations certain guidelines are offered which may be of value in decision making, in prophylactic detachment surgery. Tractional breaks in the superior temporal quadrant especially when symptomatic. mandate prophylactic treatment. Urgency is enhanced it′ the patient is aphakic. Associated myopia adds to the urgency. The higher incidence of initial right e′ e involvement in all groups suggests a vascular original possibly ischaemic.

VALDOR 2006. Values in Decisions on Risk. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Kjell

2006-09-01

Risk management, whether related to controversial facilities or the quotidian planning and response to disasters, involves a policy development and decision-making process that affects and is influenced by locally bounded communities (e.g. municipalities) as well as communities of interest (e.g. the business community and the anti-nuclear community). Environmental justice is only possible when all community perspectives are valued and incorporated into the risk management decision-making process. This raises issues of fairness such providing adequate resources for communities and ensuring equitable and fair socio-economic and political contexts. Public participation is widely seen as a means to take into account the different aspects of risk in the decision making processes. However, there are many models for public participation. Furthermore, different ideas for participation correlate with different models of democracy. The Symposium addressed theory and overall approaches as well as practical case studies. It gave insight into the problem of transparency in risk assessment and how procedures can be established to clarify the role of values versus facts, and to build trust. The following four our subject areas were covered by the conference: Nuclear waste management; Cleaning-up and remediation of contaminated sites; Risk assessment of mobile telephone systems; and Issues in biotechnology and food safety. Papers in the two first areas have been separately indexed for the database

COMPLIANCE AS FACTORING BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTROL ASPECTS

OpenAIRE

V.K. Makarovych

2016-01-01

Indetermination of modern economy conditions and the lack of theoretical knowledge gained by domestic scientists about risk in factoring business actualize the research concerning the methodology and technique of factoring companies’ risk management. The article examines compliance which is the technology innovative for Ukrainian market of factoring risk management technologies. It is determined that the compliance is the risk management process directed to free will correspondence to sta...

Meta-analysis of the risk factor for endophthalmitis in patients after cataract surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wen

2016-07-01

Full Text Available AIM: To explore the main risk factors related to the incidence of endophthalmitis in patients after cataract surgery in China and to provide evidence for prevention. METHODS: The results of 5 studies on the main risk factors of endophthalmitis in patients after cataract surgery were analyzed by Meta-analysis method. RESULTS: The pooled odds ratio values and 95% CI of age(≥70, diabetes, vitreous overflow, operative time(≥10min, common operating room and control of using time of topical anesthetic were 1.81(95% CI: 1.43-1.69,3.66(95% CI: 1.64-8.16,2.21(95% CI: 1.46-3.32,3.54(95% CI: 2.47-5.06,2.77(95% CI: 2.07-3.72,2.09(95% CI: 1.53-2.86. CONCLUSION: The main risk factors of endophthalmitis were the age(≥70, diabetes, vitreous overflow, operative time(≥10min, common operating room and control of using time of topical anesthetic.

Risk factors in neuroleptic malignant syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Vinay; Magon, Rakesh; Mishra, B P; Sidhu, G B S; Mahajan, Ranjiv

2003-01-01

Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is an uncommon but potentially serious idiosyncratic response to neuroleptic antipsychotics. It usually affects young males, but the risk has been seen to increase with certain factors including the administration practices of antipsychotic neuroleptics in these individuals. Even though no predictors for NMS are yet known, this article highlights the findings on certain risk factors as seen from a series of fifteen patients who developed NMS. Cautious use of neuroleptics in those at risk, early recognition and institution of immediate management is important.

Risk factors for repetition of self-harm: a systematic review of prospective hospital-based studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Celine Larkin

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Self-harm entails high costs to individuals and society in terms of suicide risk, morbidity and healthcare expenditure. Repetition of self-harm confers yet higher risk of suicide and risk assessment of self-harm patients forms a key component of the health care management of self-harm patients. To date, there has been no systematic review published which synthesises the extensive evidence on risk factors for repetition. OBJECTIVE: This review is intended to identify risk factors for prospective repetition of self-harm after an index self-harm presentation, irrespective of suicidal intent. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, PsychInfo and Scirus were used to search for relevant publications. We included cohort studies which examining factors associated with prospective repetition among those presenting with self-harm to emergency departments. Journal articles, abstracts, letters and theses in any language published up to June 2012 were considered. Studies were quality-assessed and synthesised in narrative form. RESULTS: A total of 129 studies, including 329,001 participants, met our inclusion criteria. Some factors were studied extensively and were found to have a consistent association with repetition. These included previous self-harm, personality disorder, hopelessness, history of psychiatric treatment, schizophrenia, alcohol abuse/dependence, drug abuse/dependence, and living alone. However, the sensitivity values of these measures varied greatly across studies. Psychological risk factors and protective factors have been relatively under-researched but show emerging associations with repetition. Composite risk scales tended to have high sensitivity but poor specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Many risk factors for repetition of self-harm match risk factors for initiation of self-harm, but the most consistent evidence for increased risk of repetition comes from long-standing psychosocial vulnerabilities, rather than characteristics of an index episode

Risk factors for cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) in Norwegian salmon farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Bang Jensen, Britt; Brun, Edgar; Fineid, Birgitte; Larssen, Rolf Bjerke; Kristoffersen, Anja B

2013-12-12

Cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) has been an economically important disease in Norwegian aquaculture since the 1990s. In this study, data on monthly production characteristics and case registrations were combined in a cohort study and supplemented with a questionnaire-based case-control survey on management factors in order to identify risk factors for CMS. The cohort study included cases and controls from 2005 to 2012. From this dataset differences between all cases and controls were analyzed by a mixed effect multivariate logistic regression. From this we found that the probability of CMS increased with increasing time in the sea, infection pressure, and cohort size, and that cohorts which had previously been diagnosed with heart and skeletal muscle inflammation or which were in farms with a history of CMS in previous cohorts had double the odds of developing CMS. The model was then used to calculate the predicted value for each cohort from which additional data were obtained via the questionnaire-based survey and used as offset for calculating the probability of CMS in a semi-univariate analysis of additional risk factors. Finally, the model was used to calculate the probability of developing CMS in 100 different scenarios in which the cohorts were subject to increasingly worse conditions with regards to the risk factors from the dataset. We believe that this exercise is a good way of communicating the findings to farmers, so they can make informed decisions when trying to avoid CMS in their fish cohorts.

Lung cancer incidence and risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bairakova, A.

1993-01-01

The possibility of developing lung cancer (lc) as a consequence of inhaling hot particles from the Chernobyl accident is discussed. The risk from various factors is reviewed in order to assess the rate of contribution for any of them to carcinogenic process. The conclusions are based on data reported by National Centre of Oncology, Sofia (BG). A total of 2873 new cases have been recorded in 1990. The data for the period 1970-1990 show a crude increase for males and tend to stabilization for females. The similar pattern is obtained in other countries and geographic areas with steady rise of lc cases with about 0.5% per year. The contribution of particular risk factor and its interaction with other factors is assessed on the basis of large number of epidemiologic and experimental studies. The risk of cigarette smoking, as the principal cause for lc, is discussed in various aspects - age, duration, possible dropping the habit. The assessment of another risk factor - exposure to relatively high doses of natural radon daughter products - is more complicated. As an occupational hazard in uranium mines radon and its progeny reveals an increase in excess lc incidence. Regarding radon and its daughters as an environmental risk factor in dwellings, no clear positive relationship between exposure and lc incidence has been observed. In this case the assessment for population living in areas with higher concentration of radon products have to rely on data from uranium mines. Non radiation factors as asbestos, ethers, chromates, metallic iron, nickel, beryllium and arsenic, are also considered. The combined effect of all these factors, as well as of pathological cell processes, viruses, malfunctions of immune system, is mentioned as well. The possibility of interpreting the findings from epidemiological studies within the framework of theoretical multistage models of carcinogenic process is pointed out. (author)

Operational implications of accepting and denying whether a true value of risk exists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozin, Igor

It is suggested to look on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It will be argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the suggested...... one. In general, the values of risks are not known precisely and the analyst has the option to consider that convergence to a precise value of risk is possible in the limit. That is, the true value exists but due to limited time, resources or other limitations in assessing probabilities...

The association between cardiovascular risk factors and high blood pressure in adolescents: a school-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Christofaro, Diego G D; Fernandes, Rômulo A; Oliveira, Arli R; Freitas Júnior, Ismael Forte; Barros, Mauro V G; Ritti-Dias, Raphael M

2014-01-01

Although previous studies have analyzed the association between cardiovascular risk factors and blood pressure in adolescents, few studies conducted in developing countries analyzed whether the aggregation of risk factors contributes to an increased risk of high blood pressure in adolescents. The objective of this study was to assess the association between cardiovascular risk factors (including general overweight, abdominal obesity, high consumption of foods rich in fats, and insufficient physical activity levels) and high blood pressure in adolescents. This study was carried out from 2007 to 2008 with 1021 adolescents (528 girls) from primary schools located in the city of Londrina- Brazil. Blood pressure was assessed using an oscillometric device. General overweight was obtained through body mass index, abdominal obesity was assessed using waist circumference, and the consumption of foods rich in fat and physical activity were assessed using a questionnaire. The sum of these risk factors was determined. Adolescents with three or four aggregated risk factors were more likely to have higher values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure when compared with adolescents who did not have any cardiovascular risk factors (P = 0.001 for both). Logistic regression indicated that groups of adolescents with 2 (OR= 2.46 [1.11-5.42]; P = 0.026), 3 (OR= 4.97 [2.07-11.92]; P = 0.001) or 4 risk factors (OR= 6.79 [2.24-19.9]; P = 0.001) presented an increased likelihood of high blood pressure. The number of cardiovascular risk factors was found to be related to high blood pressure in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

The influence of various risk factors on the strength of pelvic floor muscle in women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parezanović-Ilić Katarina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Damage of any element of pelvic floor leads to its functional damages, reflected in the occurrence of urinary incontinence, prolapse of pelvic organs, fecal incontinence and sexual dysfunction. Basic aim of our paper was to investigate the influence of various risk factors on pelvic floor muscle strength in women. Methods. The study included 90 female patients and examined how age, job, body weight and height, number of deliveries, sports activities, incontinence occurrence, previous prolapse-caused gynecological surgeries, other gynecological surgeries and other conservatively treated gynecological diseases influence the value of pelvic floor muscle strength. Pelvic floor muscle strength was measured using vaginal dynamometer. Results. Univariate regression analysis showed that parameters such as age, demanding job, body height, number of deliveries, sports activities, prolapse-caused gynecological surgeries, other gynecological surgeries and other gynecological diseases were in positive correlation with the values of pelvic floor muscle strength. In multivariate regression model, incontinence and gynecological operation of prolapse were singled out as independent risk factors. Conclusion. If risk factors that cause damage to pelvic floor muscle are known, it is possible to prevent the damages and improve the quality of women's life.

Probability Model of Allele Frequency of Alzheimer’s Disease Genetic Risk Factor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Afshin Fayyaz-Movaghar

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The identification of genetics risk factors of human diseases is very important. This study is conducted to model the allele frequencies (AFs of Alzheimer’s disease. Materials and Methods: In this study, several candidate probability distributions are fitted on a data set of Alzheimer’s disease genetic risk factor. Unknown parameters of the considered distributions are estimated, and some criterions of goodness-of-fit are calculated for the sake of comparison. Results: Based on some statistical criterions, the beta distribution gives the best fit on AFs. However, the estimate values of the parameters of beta distribution lead us to the standard uniform distribution. Conclusion: The AFs of Alzheimer’s disease follow the standard uniform distribution.

Prognostic Value of Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on Cardiovascular Risk in a Non-hypertensive Community-based Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Kentaro; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Tanno, Kozo; Ohsawa, Masaki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Omama, Shinichi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Kuribayashi, Toru; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Motoyuki

2018-04-06

The appearance of left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG-LVH) has been clarified to be associated with the risk of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) in hypertensive individuals and the general population, but not enough in non-hypertensive individuals. A total of 4,927 non-hypertensive individuals ≥ 40 years of age who were free of CVE in the general population were followed for the incidence of CVE. ECG-LVH was defined according to criteria of the Sokolow-Lyon (SL) voltage, Cornell voltage (CV), or Cornell voltage product (CP). During the average 9.8 ± 2.0 years of follow-up, 267 individuals (5.4%) had their first CVE. The hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence of CVE after full adjustment by potential confounders significantly increased in the individuals with ECG-LVH by any criteria of the SL voltage, CV, and CP (HR = 1.77, p < 0.001) compared to those with no ECG-LVH. This association was significant also in individuals without any of obesity, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus or those with systolic BP <120 mmHg and diastolic BP < 80mmHg. Furthermore, ECG-LVH by each criteria provided the reclassification improvement for the CVE risk prediction model by the Framingham 10-year risk score (the net reclassification improvement = 0.17 to 0.22, each p value < 0.010). In the absence of hypertension, ECG-LVH parameters are associated with the increased risk of developed CVEs independent of the established risk factors and provide the additional prognostic value in an assessment of the CVE risk using the traditional risk factors.

Value of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification for Risk Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Events: Result of the HNR Study (Heinz Nixdorf Recall).

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Lehmann, Nils; Erbel, Raimund; Mahabadi, Amir A; Rauwolf, Michael; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2018-02-13

Computed tomography (CT) allows estimation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. We evaluated several progression algorithms in our unselected, population-based cohort for risk prediction of coronary and cardiovascular events. In 3281 participants (45-74 years of age), free from cardiovascular disease until the second visit, risk factors, and CTs at baseline (b) and after a mean of 5.1 years (5y) were measured. Hard coronary and cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular events including revascularization, as well, were recorded during a follow-up time of 7.8±2.2 years after the second CT. The added predictive value of 10 CAC progression algorithms on top of risk factors including baseline CAC was evaluated by using survival analysis, C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index. A subgroup analysis of risk in CAC categories was performed. We observed 85 (2.6%) hard coronary, 161 (4.9%) hard cardiovascular, and 241 (7.3%) total cardiovascular events. Absolute CAC progression was higher with versus without subsequent coronary events (median, 115 [Q1-Q3, 23-360] versus 8 [0-83], P value of baseline CT and risk assessment in terms of C-statistic or integrated discrimination index, especially for total cardiovascular events. However, CAC progression did not improve models including CAC 5y and 5-year risk factors. An excellent prognosis was found for 921 participants with double-zero CAC b =CAC 5y =0 (10-year coronary and hard/total cardiovascular risk: 1.4%, 2.0%, and 2.8%), which was for participants with incident CAC 1.8%, 3.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. When CAC b progressed from 1 to 399 to CAC 5y ≥400, coronary and total cardiovascular risk were nearly 2-fold in comparison with subjects who remained below CAC 5y =400. Participants with CAC b ≥400 had high rates of hard coronary and hard/total cardiovascular events (10-year risk: 12.0%, 13.5%, and 30.9%, respectively). CAC progression is associated with

Contamination Level of Staphylococcus spp. in Raw Goat Milk and Associated Risk Factors

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E. Taufik

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This study was aimed to investigate the presence of pathogenic bacteria in raw goat milk by using Staphylococcus spp. as indicator bacteria, and also to evaluate the potential risk factors associated with them. Information regarding potential risk factors was collected by questionnaire. The conventional bacteriological method for bacterial isolation and the indirect test (California Mastitis Test (CMT for determining udder inflammation status were employed. A sample size of 300 udder halves milk samples from three commercial dairy goat farms in the Bogor District, West Java Province, Indonesia were investigated for counts and prevalence of indicator bacteria. Ten potential risk factors were also evaluated in relation to counts and prevalence of indicator bacteria. The results showed that the median value of indicator bacterial count from overall udder-half milk samples was 3.00 log cfu/ml. The indicator bacterial count from udder-half milk samples was significantly different (P<0.05 among farms. Overall prevalence of Staphylococcus spp. was 78.7%. As one of potential risk factors, udder inflammation status was found to be risk factor for Staphylococcus spp. contamination in milk. Udders with inflammation had significant association and a higher chance of having contaminated samples by Staphylococcus spp. as compared to udders without inflammation. Additionally, according to these study results, CMT can be used as an effective, reliable, cheap and “farm and farmer friendly test” for screening test of intramammary infection (IMI or sub clinical mastitis in dairy goats.

Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten

2016-01-01

Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

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Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

2012-04-01

Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

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In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

Biological risk factors for deep vein trombosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vayá, Amparo; Mira, Yolanda; Martínez, Marcial; Villa, Piedad; Ferrando, Fernando; Estellés, Amparo; Corella, Dolores; Aznar, Justo

2002-01-01

Hypercoagulable states due either to inherited or acquired thrombotic risk factors are only present in approximately half of cases of DVT, but the causes in the other half, remain unknown. The importance of biological risk factors such as hyperlipidemia, hypofibrinolysis and hemorheological alterations in the pathogenesis of DVT has not been well established. In order to ascertain whether the above mentioned biological factors are associated with DVT and could constitute independent risk factors, we carried out a case-control study in 109 first DVT patients in whom inherited or acquired thrombophilic risk factors had been ruled out and 121 healthy controls age (42+/-15 years) and sex matched. From all the biological variables analyzed (cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, fibrinogen, erythrocyte aggregation, hematocrit, plasma viscosity and PAI-1) only fibrinogen concentration reached a statistically significant difference on the comparison of means (290+/-73 mg/dl in cases vs 268+/-58 mg/dl in controls, p220 mg/dl, hematocrit >45% and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl was higher in cases than in controls: 38% vs 22%; p30 ng/ml, 37% vs 25% was borderline significant; p=0.055. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that cholesterolemia >220 mg/dl and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl constitute independent predictors of venous thrombotic risk. The adjusted OR's were 2.03 (95% CI; 1.12-3.70) for cholesterolemia and 1.94 (95% CI; 1.07-3.55) for fibrinogen. When these two variables combined DVT risk rose about fourfold (3.96; p<0.05). Our results suggest that hypercholesterolemia and hyperfibrinogenemia should be added to the list of known DVT risk factors and we recommend adopting measures to decrease these variables in the population with a high risk of DVT.

Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

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Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

2017-01-01

"Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

Cephalometric risk factors of obstructive sleep apnea.

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Bayat, Mohamad; Shariati, Mahsa; Rakhshan, Vahid; Abbasi, Mohsen; Fateh, Ali; Sobouti, Farhad; Davoudmanesh, Zeinab

2017-09-01

Previous studies on risk factors of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are highly controversial and mostly identifying a few cephalometric risk factors. OSA diagnosis was made according to the patients' apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Included were 74 OSA patients (AHI > 10) and 52 control subjects (AHI ≤ 10 + free of other OSA symptoms). In both groups, 18 cephalometric parameters were traced (SNA, SNB, ANB, the soft palate's length (PNS-P), inferior airway space, the distance from the mandibular plane to the hyoid (MP-H), lengths of mandible (Go-Gn) and maxilla (PNS-ANS), vertical height of airway (VAL), vertical height of the posterior maxilla (S-PNS), superior posterior airway space (SPAS), middle airway space, distances from hyoid to third cervical vertebra and retrognathion (HH1), C3 (C3H), and RGN (HRGN), the maximum thickness of soft palate (MPT), tongue length (TGL), and the maximum height of tongue). These parameters were compared using t-test. Significant variables were SPAS (p = 0.027), MPT, TGL, HH1, C3H, HRGN, PNS-P, S-PNS, MP-H, VAL, and Go-Gn (all p values ≤ 0.006). OSA patients exhibited thicker and longer soft palates, hyoid bones more distant from the vertebrae, retrognathion, and mandibular plane, higher posterior maxillae, longer mandibles, and smaller superior-posterior airways.

[Risk factors found in suicide attempters].

Science.gov (United States)

Villa-Manzano, Alberto Iram; Robles-Romero, Miguel Angel; Gutiérrez-Román, Elsa Armida; Martínez-Arriaga, María Guadalupe; Valadez-Toscano, Francisco Javier; Cabrera-Pivaral, Carlos E

2009-01-01

A better understanding of risk factors for suicide in general population is crucial for the design of suicide prevention programs. Our objective was to identify personal and family risk factors in suicide attempters. Case-control design. We searched in patients with an acute intoxication, those subjects with and intoxication attributable to suicide attempt. These patients were matched with controls by gender and the date of intoxication. We use a structured questionnaire to identify personal characteristics, family features and network support. Odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval were obtained. 25 cases and 25 controls were evaluated. The risk factors associated with suicide attempt adjusted by age, were being a student and smoking habits. Family violence background showed OR = 3.8 (IC 95 % = 1.1-13), family disintegration a OR = 8.5 (IC 95 % = 2.1-35), critical events background OR = 8.8 (IC 95 % = 2.1-36), poor self-esteem OR = 8.2 (IC 95 % 2-35), depression OR = 22 (IC 95 % = 3-190), anxiety OR = 9 (IC 95 % = 2-47), family dysfunction OR = 25 (IC 95 % = 4-151). The principal risk factor for suicide attempt was family dysfunction and psychological traits.

Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

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Andrzej Partyka

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

Risk factors for post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikoma, Ryo; Sakane, Sayaka; Niwa, Kazutomo; Kanetaka, Sayaka; Kawano, Toshiro; Oridate, Nobuhiko

2014-08-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH) in a single institution and to evaluate the clinical risk factors for PTH. We reviewed the records of 692 patients who underwent tonsillectomy (TE) at Yokohama Minami Kyosai Hospital in Japan. PTH grades were grouped into three categories according to the severity of the hemorrhagic episode: (I) minimal hemorrhage that stopped after noninvasive treatment, (II) hemorrhage requiring treatment with local anesthesia, and (III) hemorrhage requiring reoperation under general anesthesia in the operating room. Clinical risk factors such as sex, age (adults vs. children), TE indication, surgeon's skill level, operative time, ligature type, and duration of antibiotic administration for PTH were investigated. Among the 692 patients, 80 (11.6%) showed PTH, with primary and secondary hemorrhage accounting for 1.6% and 10.0%, respectively. A category III PTH was observed in 18 patients; thus, the overall risk of reoperation was 2.6%. The PTH episode most frequently occurred on postoperative days 5 and 6. The frequency of PTH was significantly higher in male patients and in adults (Pdefinition of PTH. Clinical risk factors for PTH were adult age and male gender. The surgeon's skill level was an additional risk factor for category III PTH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk and Protective Factors for Breast Cancer in Midwest of Brazil

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Lívia Emi Inumaru

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Patterns of physical activity, body composition, and breastfeeding are closely related to health and are influenced by environmental, economic, and social factors. With the increase of sedentary lifestyle and overweight, many chronic diseases have also increased, including cancer. Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide, and the knowledge of its risk and protective factors is important to the adoption of primary prevention strategies. We aimed to investigate some risk and protective factors for breast cancer among women from Midwest Brazil. It is a case-control study of outpatient basis, carried out with 93 breast cancer cases and 186 controls. Socioeconomic, gynecological, anthropometric, and lifestyle variables were collected, and odds ratios (ORs values were estimated (significance level, 5%; confidence interval (CI, 95%. Per capita income equal to or lower than 1/2 Brazilian minimum wage (OR=1.88; CI=1.06–3.29, residence in rural area (OR=4.93; CI=1.65–14.73, and presence of family history of breast cancer (OR=5.38; CI=1.46–19.93 are risk factors for breast cancer. In turn, physical activity (past 6 months (OR=0.23; CI=0.10–0.55 and leisure physical activity at 20 years old (OR=0.13; CI=0.03–0.54 are protective factors for the disease in women who live in Midwest of Brazil.

Measuring Risk-adjusted Customer Lifetime Value and its Impact on Relationship Marketing Strategies and Shareholder Value

OpenAIRE

Ryals, Lynette; Knox, Simon

2005-01-01

The calculations which underlie efforts to balance marketing spending on customer acquisition and customer retention are usually based on either single- period customer profitability or forecasts of customer lifetime value (CLTV). This paper argues instead for risk-adjusted CLTV, which is termed the economic value (EV) of a customer, as the means for marketing to assess both customer profitability and shareholder value gains.

Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

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Lu Liping

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

Incentives and other factors associated with employee participation in health risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Taitel, Michael S; Haufle, Vincent; Heck, Debi; Loeppke, Ronald; Fetterolf, Donald

2008-08-01

Investigate factors associated with employee participation rates in health risk assessments. This cross-sectional study using multiple regression analyzed data from 124 employers with 882,275 eligible employees who completed 344,825 health and productivity assessments (HPAs). Incentive value and Communications and Organizational Commitment Level (Com/Org Level) were the strongest predictors of HPA completion rates. Employer size and a Gateway Model were also significant predictors. In addition, a correlation of variables showed other important relationships. To achieve a 50% HPA completion rate, employers with a low Com/Org Level will need an incentive value of approximately $120 whereas employers with a high Com/Org Level only need approximately $40--a difference of $80 dollars. This applied study offers empirical evidence to help employers increase their employees' participation in health risk assessments.

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this

Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

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Ughade Suresh

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

Cardiovascular risk factors and collateral artery formation.

Science.gov (United States)

de Groot, D; Pasterkamp, G; Hoefer, I E

2009-12-01

Arterial lumen narrowing and vascular occlusion is the actual cause of morbidity and mortality in atherosclerotic disease. Collateral artery formation (arteriogenesis) refers to an active remodelling of non-functional vascular anastomoses to functional collateral arteries, capable to bypass the site of obstruction and preserve the tissue that is jeopardized by ischaemia. Hemodynamic forces such as shear stress and wall stress play a pivotal role in collateral artery formation, accompanied by the expression of various cytokines and invasion of circulating leucocytes. Arteriogenesis hence represents an important compensatory mechanism for atherosclerotic vessel occlusion. As arteriogenesis mostly occurs when lumen narrowing by atherosclerotic plaques takes place, presence of cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes) is highly likely. Risk factors for atherosclerotic disease affect collateral artery growth directly and indirectly by altering hemodynamic forces or influencing cellular function and proliferation. Adequate collateralization varies significantly among atherosclerotic patients, some profit from the presence of extensive collateral networks, whereas others do not. Cardiovascular risk factors could increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in certain patients because of the reduced protection through an alternative vascular network. Likewise, drugs primarily thought to control cardiovascular risk factors might contribute or counteract collateral artery growth. This review summarizes current knowledge on the influence of cardiovascular risk factors and the effects of cardiovascular medication on the development of collateral vessels in experimental and clinical studies.

THE ROLE OF VALUE AT RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ASSET AND LIABILITIES

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Petria Nicolae

2012-12-01

Full Text Available ALM is the management of risk at enterprise level, the models used in ALM can be static or dynamic: single period-static models, multiple period static model, single period stochastic model, multi period stochastic model. While single period-static don't incorporate the dynamic of the economical changes the multiple period-static models are an extension of the single period-static model, the most common used are multi-period stochastic which model the evolution of financial series in time and the assets and liabilities using different types of probability distributions (Student, GED. Highly correlated with ALM is the Value at Risk which can be used as and function to be minimized in ALM models. In the Value at Risk methodology the estimation models are classified as: parametric, nonparametric, semi-parametric; we present the parametric models (GARCH models used in Value at Risk and the connections that can be established between ALM models and Value at Risk. We present the Conditional Value-at-risk and offer and example on how to calculate CVaR .

Risk and value analysis of SETI

Science.gov (United States)

Billingham, J.

1990-01-01

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

The prognostic value of MRI in determining reinjury risk following acute hamstring injury: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

van Heumen, Moniek; Tol, Johannes L; de Vos, Robert-Jan; Moen, Maarten H; Weir, Adam; Orchard, John; Reurink, Gustaaf

2017-09-01

A challenge for sports physicians is to estimate the risk of a hamstring re-injury, but the current evidence for MRI variables as a risk factor is unknown. To systematically review the literature on the prognostic value of MRI findings at index injury and/or return to play for acute hamstring re-injuries. Databases of PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Web of Science, LILACS, SciELO, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, SPORTDiscus and Cochrane Library were searched until 20 June 2016. Studies evaluating MRI as a prognostic tool for determining the risk of re-injury for athletes with acute hamstring injuries were eligible for inclusion. Two authors independently screened the search results and assessed risk of bias using standardised criteria from a consensus statement. A best-evidence synthesis was used to identify the level of evidence. Post hoc analysis included correction for insufficient sample size. Of the 11 studies included, 7 had a low and 4 had a high risk of bias. No strong evidence for any MRI finding as a risk factor for hamstring re-injury was found. There was moderate evidence that intratendinous injuries were associated with increased re-injury risk. Post hoc analysis showed moderate evidence that injury to the biceps femoris was a moderate to strong risk factor for re-injury. There is currently no strong evidence for any MRI finding in predicting hamstring re-injury risk. Intratendinous injuries and biceps femoris injuries showed moderate evidence for association with a higher re-injury risk. Registration in the PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews was performed prior to study initiation (registration number CRD42015024620). © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

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Stevenson Christopher E

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men and 35.6% (women of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

Exploring Risk Factors for Follicular Lymphoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander J. Ambinder

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent malignancy of germinal center B cells with varied incidence across racial groups and geographic regions. Improvements in the classification of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes provide an opportunity to explore associations between environmental exposures and FL incidence. Our paper found that aspects of Western lifestyle including sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and diets high in meat and milk are associated with an increased risk of FL. Diets rich in fruits and vegetables, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin D, and certain antioxidants are inversely associated with FL risk. A medical history of Sjogren's syndrome, influenza vaccination, and heart disease may be associated with FL incidence. Associations between FL and exposure to pesticides, industrial solvents, hair dyes, and alcohol/tobacco were inconsistent. Genetic risk factors include variants at the 6p21.32 region of the MHC II locus, polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene XRCC3, and UV exposure in individuals with certain polymorphisms of the vitamin D receptor. Increasing our understanding of risk factors for FL must involve integrating epidemiological studies of genetics and exposures to allow for the examination of risk factors and interactions between genes and environment.

Predicting type 2 diabetes using genetic and environmental risk factors in a multi-ethnic Malaysian cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Kamaruddin, M A; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

2017-08-01

Malaysia has a high and rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). While environmental (non-genetic) risk factors for the disease are well established, the role of genetic variations and gene-environment interactions remain understudied in this population. This study aimed to estimate the relative contributions of environmental and genetic risk factors to T2D in Malaysia and also to assess evidence for gene-environment interactions that may explain additional risk variation. This was a case-control study including 1604 Malays, 1654 Chinese and 1728 Indians from the Malaysian Cohort Project. The proportion of T2D risk variance explained by known genetic and environmental factors was assessed by fitting multivariable logistic regression models and evaluating McFadden's pseudo R 2 and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models with and without the genetic risk score (GRS) were compared using the log likelihood ratio Chi-squared test and AUCs. Multiplicative interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors was assessed via logistic regression within and across ancestral groups. Interactions were assessed for the GRS and its 62 constituent variants. The models including environmental risk factors only had pseudo R 2 values of 16.5-28.3% and AUC of 0.75-0.83. Incorporating a genetic score aggregating 62 T2D-associated risk variants significantly increased the model fit (likelihood ratio P-value of 2.50 × 10 -4 -4.83 × 10 -12 ) and increased the pseudo R 2 by about 1-2% and AUC by 1-3%. None of the gene-environment interactions reached significance after multiple testing adjustment, either for the GRS or individual variants. For individual variants, 33 out of 310 tested associations showed nominal statistical significance with 0.001 variation in Malaysian population groups. If gene-environment interactions involving common genetic variants exist, they are likely of small effect, requiring substantially larger samples for

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Relationships between Family Levels of Socioeconomic Status and Distribution of Breast Cancer Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohaghegh, Pegah; Yavari, Parvin; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil; Abadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Farzaneh; Shormeij, Zeinab

2015-01-01

Not only the expand development of knowledge for reducing risk factors, but also the improvement in early diagnosis and treatment of cancer, and socioeconomic inequalities could affect cancer incidence, diagnosis stage, and mortality. The aim of this study was investigation the relationships between family levels of socioeconomic status and distribution of breast cancer risk factors. This descriptive cross-sectional study has conducted on 526 patients who were suffering from breast cancer, and have registered in Cancer Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences from March 2008 to December 2013. A reliable and valid questionnaire about family levels of socioeconomic status has filled by interviewing the patients via phone. For analyzing the data, Multinomial logistic regression, Kendal tau-b correlation coefficient and Contingency Coefficient tests have executed by SPSS19. The mean age of the patients was 48.30 (SD=11.41). According to the results of this study, there was a significant relationship between family socioeconomic status and patient's age at diagnosis of breast cancer (p valuesocioeconomic status and number of pregnancies, and duration of breast feeding were significant (p value> 0.001). In the multiple logistic regressions, the relationship between excellent socioeconomic status and number of abortions was significant (p value> 0.007). Furthermore, the relationships between moderate and good socioeconomic statuses and smoking were significant (p value=0.05 and p value=0.02, respectively). The results have indicated that among those patients having better socioeconomic status, age at cancer diagnosis, number of pregnancies and duration of breast feeding was lower, and then number of abortions was more than the others. According to the results of this study, it was really important to focus on family socioeconomic status as a critical and effective variable on breast cancer risk factors among the Iranian women.

EAMJ Risk Factors 10.indd

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2010-02-02

Feb 2, 2010 ... Several factors have been suggested as independent risk factors for their development. Identification of these ... with age, gender or haematological test. ... A meta-analysis of prospective studies on ..... The marked difference may be because monthly .... and dyslipidemia among patients taking first-line,.

A Screening Tool Using Five Risk Factors Was Developed for Fall-Risk Prediction in Chinese Community-Dwelling Elderly Individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Li; Chen, Xiaoyu; Han, Peipei; Ma, Yixuan; Jia, Liye; Fu, Liyuan; Yu, Hairui; Wang, Lu; Hou, Lin; Yu, Xing; An, Zongyang; Wang, Xuetong; Li, Lu; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Peng; Guo, Qi

2018-01-22

The objective of this study was to determine falls risk profiles to derive a falls risk prediction score and establish a simple and practical clinical screening tool for Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals. This was a prospective cohort study (n = 619) among adults aged 60 years and older. Falls were ascertained at a 1-year follow-up appointment. Sociodemographic information, medical history, and physical performance data were collected. The mean age was 67.4 years; 57.7% were women. Female sex (odds ratios [ORs] 1.82; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.17-2.82), diabetes (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.13-3.98), a Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) ≥10.49 seconds (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.23-1.94), a history of falls (OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.72-5.79), and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale [GDS] ≥11, OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.36-4.63) were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to establish a risk score. The area under the curve of the score was 0.748. From a clinical point of view, the most appropriate cutoff value was 7 (97.5% specificity, 70.7% positive predictive value, and 83.6% negative predictive value). For this cutoff, the fraction correctly classified was 82.5%. A cutoff score of 7 derived from a risk assessment tool using four risk factors (gender, falls history, diabetes, and depression) and the TUGT may be used in Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals as an initial step to screen those at low risk for falls.

The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adele Burger

CV risk profile of the group according to the risk score system developed by the ... an individual has about CVD, and the possible risk factors contributing to the .... levels in the lowest tertile of CVD knowledge versus the highest tertile of CVD ..... CV risk factors and health behavior counseling, much can be done to prevent ...

Prevalence and risk factors of obesity among school-aged children in Xi'an, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Xiaoqing; Yin, Chunyan; Chang, Ming; Xiao, Yanfeng

2012-02-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and the risk factors associated with obesity among school-aged children in Xi'an city. The body mass index of 6,740 children aged 7-18 years was compared with the Working Group on Obesity in China cut-off value to estimate the prevalence of obesity. A case-control study of obese and non-obese children was carried out to study risk factors for obesity. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect information on possible risk factors causing obesity. Univariate analysis was performed first to compare the distribution of risk factors between cases and controls. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to assess independent risk factors of obesity. The results showed that the overall prevalence of obesity among school-aged children was 4.11% (4.63% for males and 3.57% for females). A total of 516 subjects (258 pairs of cases and controls) were included in the final analysis. High maternal education and a longer sleeping time were shown to be protective factors against obesity (odds ratio [OR] 0.148, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.074-0.296 and OR 0.472, 95% CI 0.342-0.652, respectively). Whereas family history of diabetes (OR 5.498, 95% CI 2.606-11.600), parental overweight (OR 3.720, 95% CI 2.068-6.689), and watching television, playing video games, and using computers (OR 1.564, 95% CI 1.133-2.159) were associated with a higher obesity risk. The prevalence of childhood obesity in Xi'an has become a concern, and sleeping time, sedentary behavior, and family factors have pronounced effects on the prevalence of obesity.

Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

Value-at-Risk Performances during the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis: a comparison of three Value-at-Risk models in the emerging markets of China, India and Philippines.

OpenAIRE

Li, Mi

2012-01-01

Ever since the world economic outlook was fundamentally changed by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, risk management and reliable risk measurements have been drew much attentions. This thesis selects three Asian emerging markets, that is, China, India, Philippine, as the research targets and evaluates the performances of three different Value-at-Risk (VaR) models (the Historical Simulation, the Monte Carlo Simulation, and the Extreme Value Theory) in these three emerging markets’ stock markets ...

Data collection on risk factors in pregnancy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zetstra-van der Woude, Alethea Priscilla

2016-01-01

This thesis aims to investigate the different methods of data collection of risk factors in pregnancy. Several observational epidemiologic study designs were used to assess associations between risk factors and negative birth outcomes. We especially looked at the use of folic acid around pregnancy

Review of research on identification of factors influencing social response to technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.

1977-01-01

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned. The social response to plans for further technological development has often taken the form of demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks, and consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for interdisciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to allow the balancing of complex technical data with measures of the corresponding social values. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision-making are summarized as background for the introduction of formal decision methodologies. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. A pilot application to nuclear power indicated that, for the subjects tested, attitudes pro and con were primarily determined by strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Symbolic aspects of the nuclear controversy are reviewed, including psychological associations with nuclear weapons. It is suggested that nuclear energy is providing a forum to evaluate a wide range of social issues, perhaps playing a symbolic role in a dialogue about the shape and direction of a technologically-determined future. (author)

Risk factors for unscheduled delivery in patients with placenta accreta.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowman, Zachary S; Manuck, Tracy A; Eller, Alexandra G; Simons, Marilee; Silver, Robert M

2014-03-01

Patients with suspected placenta accreta have improved outcomes with scheduled delivery. Our objective was to identify risk factors for unscheduled delivery in patients with suspected placenta accreta. This was a cohort study of women with antenatally suspected placenta accreta. Women who delivered prior to a planned delivery date were compared with women who had a scheduled delivery. Data were analyzed using a Student t test, χ(2), logistic regression, and survival analyses. Variables included in the analyses were episodes of antenatal vaginal bleeding, preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), uterine contractions, prior cesarean deliveries, interpregnancy interval, parity, and patient demographic factors. A value of P accreta were identified. Thirty-eight (49.4%) had an unscheduled delivery. Demographics were similar between groups. Unscheduled patients delivered earlier (mean 32.3 vs 35.7 weeks, P accreta, those with antenatal vaginal bleeding were more likely to require unscheduled delivery. This risk increases further in the setting of PPROM and/or uterine contractions. These clinical factors should be considered when determining the optimal delivery gestational age for women with placental accreta. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship of Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome with Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilal, Muhammad; Haseeb, Abdul; Rehman, Abdur

2018-05-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder affecting women of reproductive age. The two main documented pathogenic mechanisms are hyperinsulinemia and hyperandrogenemia but there is growing evidence for increased predisposition to cardiovascular disease, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our study aims to analyze the association of PCOS with cardiovascular risk factors. This is a prospective study which targeted 100 PCOS patients from Civil Hospital Karachi over a period of one year (July 2016 to July 2017). An equal number of age-matched healthy control participants were also included in the study. The student's t-test was used to assess the significance of differences using SPSS version (19). The statistical significance was set at a p-value of PCOS was primary infertility seen in 72% of the patients. Mean arterial pressure, fasting glucose and insulin levels and insulin resistance was found to be significantly different in PCOS patients as compared to their controls. A classic atherosclerotic lipid profile demonstrating elevated total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein-C (LDL-C) levels and decreased serum high density lipoprotein-C(HDL-C) was observed in our study. This study established a significant yet independent association of PCOS with major cardiovascular risk factors. This association can effectively progress into CVD outcomes which necessitates early intervention programs and preventative strategies to reduce mortality from cardiovascular events. This study lays out the framework for conducting further researches on the PCOS women while exploring novel cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

Science.gov (United States)

Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

2014-05-01

Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS-factor) and soil erodibility (K-factor) was assessed using small-scale topographic and soil maps. Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) was calculated from data of rainfalls with amounts exceeding 9.5 mm from 14 hydro-meteorological stations. The values of the erosion factors (R, K and LS) were presented for the areas of forest, sub-alpine and alpine zones. Using the methods of GIS, maps were plotted presenting the area distribution among the classes of the soil erosion factors and the potential risk in the respective zones. The results can be used for making accurate decisions for soil conservation and sustainable land management in the park.